749  
FGUS71 KBTV 101433  
ESFBTV  
NYC019-031-033-089-VTC001-005-007-009-011-013-015-017-019-021-023-  
027-121445-  
 
WINTER/SPRING FLOOD POTENTIAL OUTLOOK  
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT  
933 AM EST THU JAN 10 2019  
   
..WINTER/SPRING FLOOD POTENTIAL OUTLOOK
 
 
THIS IS THE FIRST FLOOD OUTLOOK FOR THE 2019 WINTER/SPRING  
SEASON. FLOOD OUTLOOKS ARE ISSUED BI-WEEKLY BY THE NATIONAL  
WEATHER SERVICE IN BURLINGTON VERMONT TO SUMMARIZE THE FLOOD  
POTENTIAL DUE TO SNOWMELT AND BREAK UP OF RIVER ICE ACROSS  
CENTRAL AND NORTHERN VERMONT AND NORTHERN NEW YORK.  
   
..OVERVIEW
 
 
THE THREAT OF FLOODING DUE TO BOTH SNOWMELT AND ICE JAMS IS BELOW  
NORMAL.  
   
..SNOW DEPTHS AND WATER EQUIVALENT
 
 
AS OF THURSDAY MORNING, SNOW DEPTHS ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY WERE  
SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL IN THE VALLEYS AND NEAR NORMAL IN THE HIGH  
TERRAIN. SNOW DEPTHS RANGE FROM 3 TO 6 INCHES IN THE CHAMPLAIN AND  
SAINT LAWRENCE VALLEYS WITH SNOW WATER EQUIVALENTS GENERALLY ONE  
INCH OR LESS.  
 
IN THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF BOTH THE GREEN AND THE ADIRONDACKS, SNOW  
DEPTHS OFFER A WIDER RANGE WITH 8 TO 20+ INCH AMOUNTS. THE SNOW  
WATER EQUIVALENTS FOR THESE SNOW DEPTHS RANGE FROM 2 TO 4+ INCHES  
OF LIQUID. THE SNOW WATER EQUIVALENT VALUES ARE GENERALLY BELOW  
NORMAL FOR ELEVATIONS BELOW 1500 FEET WHEREAS THE HIGHER ELEVATION  
SITES ARE NEAR NORMAL FOR EARLY JANUARY.  
   
..RIVER AND SOIL CONDITIONS
 
 
THE FREQUENT ROUNDS OF PRECIPITATION AND SNOW MELT FROM THE  
OCTOBER INTO EARLY DECEMBER HAVE LEAD TO SOIL MOISTURE AND GROUND  
WATERS BEING ABOVE NORMAL FOR EARLY WINTER. RIVER LEVELS ARE ALSO  
RUNNING ABOVE NORMAL DUE TO THE COMBINATION OF THE SIGNIFICANT  
SNOW EARLY IN THE SEASON AND THEN TWO EARLY SEASON THAWS.  
 
RIVER ICE IS FAIRLY LIMITED DUE TO THE EARLY SEASON THAWS  
ALTHOUGH WITH TEMPERATURES TRENDING COLDER THERE'S LIKELY SOME  
SHALLOW ICE THICKNESSES ACROSS THE NORTHERN RIVER BASINS SUCH AS  
THE MISSISQUOI, PASSUMPSIC, AU SABLE AND LITTLE SALMON RIVERS.  
 
THE PALMER DROUGHT SEVERITY INDEX, WHICH LOOKS AT MOISTURE LEVELS  
IN THE LONGER TERM OF WEEKS TO MONTHS, SHOWS NEAR NORMAL TO  
UNUSUALLY MOIST CONDITIONS ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY.  
 
GROUNDWATER WELLS, COURTESY OF THE USGS, AGAIN WITH ALL OF THE  
RECENT PRECIPITATION ARE SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL FOR EARLY WINTER  
WITH THE LONE EXCEPTION BEING PARTS OF NORTHERN VERMONT WERE  
GROUNDWATER WELLS ARE SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL. HOWEVER IN THOSE  
AREAS WITH BELOW NORMAL GROUND WATER THERE IS CURRENTLY SNOW COVER  
WHICH SHOULD HELP RECHARGE THOSE LOCATIONS.  
   
..WEATHER OUTLOOK
 
 
THE FORECAST FOR THE NEXT TWO WEEKS IS FOR VARIED CONDITIONS  
ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY. TEMPERATURES ARE TRENDING COLDER OVER  
THE NEXT MONTH. EXPECT TEMPERATURES TO BE NEAR, TO SLIGHTLY BELOW,  
NORMAL WHICH WILL LEAD TO ICE FORMATION IN THE RIVER BASINS.  
HOWEVER, THE COLD SHOULD BE QUICK HITTING AS THERE'S NO BLOCKING  
FEATURE TO KEEP THE COLD SUSTAINED FOR A LONG PERIOD OF TIME. THUS  
WHILE RIVER ICE WILL DEVELOP THE THICKNESSES MAY NOT INCREASE  
SUBSTANTIALLY. LOOKING AT LONGER RANGE ENSEMBLES THERE IS NO  
SIGNIFICANT WARM UP IN SIGHT SO THE THREAT OF BREAK UP ICE JAMS IS  
LOW.  
 
THE OFFICIAL 6-14 DAY OUTLOOK FOR JANUARY 15 TO JANUARY 23 ISSUED  
BY THE CLIMATE PREDICTION CENTER IS CALLING FOR NEAR TO BELOW  
NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND BETTER CHANCES FOR WETTER THAN NORMAL  
CONDITIONS THROUGH THE PERIOD.  
   
..SUMMARY
 
 
BASED ON THE ABOVE INFORMATION, THE WINTER/SPRING FLOOD OUTLOOK  
FOR OPEN WATER FLOODING DUE TO SNOWMELT AND RUNOFF IS BELOW NORMAL  
OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF WEEKS. EVEN WITH THE INCREASING SNOWPACK,  
MOIST SOIL CONDITIONS, AND SLIGHT WETTER THAN NORMAL WEATHER  
CONDITIONS, THE THREAT OF FLOODING FROM ICE JAMS OR SNOW MELT IS  
BELOW NORMAL FOR EARLY WINTER.  
 
IT IS IMPORTANT TO NOTE THAT HEAVY RAINFALL CAN RESULT IN  
FLOODING AT ANY TIME OF THE YEAR, EVEN IN AREAS THAT HAVE LITTLE  
OR NO SNOW ON THE GROUND.  
 
THE NEXT WINTER/SPRING FLOOD OUTLOOK WILL BE ISSUED ON THURSDAY,  
JANUARY 24, 2019.  
 
ACCESS CURRENT WEATHER CONDITIONS AND FORECASTS ON OUR WEB SITE  
AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/BTV.  
 

 
 
DEAL  
 
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