420  
FGUS71 KBTV 021951  
ESFBTV  
NYC019-031-033-089-VTC001-005-007-009-011-013-015-017-019-021-023-  
027-092000-  
 
WINTER/SPRING FLOOD POTENTIAL OUTLOOK  
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT  
351 PM EDT THU MAY 2 2019  
   
..WINTER/SPRING FLOOD POTENTIAL OUTLOOK
 
 
THIS IS THE NINTH FLOOD OUTLOOK FOR THE 2019 WINTER/SPRING  
SEASON. FLOOD OUTLOOKS ARE ISSUED BI-WEEKLY BY THE NATIONAL  
WEATHER SERVICE IN BURLINGTON, VERMONT TO SUMMARIZE THE FLOOD  
POTENTIAL DUE TO SNOWMELT AND BREAK UP OF RIVER ICE ACROSS CENTRAL  
AND NORTHERN VERMONT AND NORTHERN NEW YORK.  
   
..OVERVIEW
 
 
THE WINTER/SPRING FLOOD POTENTIAL FOR OPEN WATER FLOODING IS  
ABOVE NORMAL FOR THE LAKE CHAMPLAIN REGION IN NEW YORK AND  
VERMONT. THE REMAINDER OF THE REGION HAS A NORMAL TO SLIGHTLY  
ABOVE NORMAL FLOOD POTENTIAL.  
 
THE THREAT FOR FLOODING DUE TO ICE JAMS HAS PASSED FOR THE  
SEASON.  
   
..SNOW DEPTHS AND WATER EQUIVALENT
 
 
LITTLE TO NO SNOW COVER REMAINS BELOW 2500 FT. ABOVE 2500 FT,  
SNOW DEPTHS OF 1 TO 2 FEET ARE STILL COMMON. THE HIGHEST  
ELEVATIONS ARE STILL COVERED WITH 3 OR MORE FEET OF SNOW; AS OF  
MAY 1, THE MOUNT MANSFIELD SNOW STAKE WAS SHOWING A PACK OF 75  
INCHES. THIS IS AROUND TWO FEET ABOVE THE LONG TERM AVERAGE FOR  
THE DATE.  
 
LIKEWISE, THE SNOW WATER EQUIVALENT, OR THE AMOUNT OF WATER  
CONTAINED IN THE SNOWPACK, IS ABOVE NORMAL FOR THOSE AREAS THAT  
STILL HAVE SNOW. LOCATIONS ABOVE 2500 FT HAVE 3 TO 5 INCHES OF  
SWE, WITH A TRACE TO 3 INCHES ACROSS DEEP WOODED AREAS AND THE  
HIGH TERRAIN. THERE ARE 6+ INCHES OF WATER CONTAINED IN THE  
SNOWPACK ACROSS THE HIGHEST PEAKS.  
   
..RIVER AND SOIL CONDITIONS
 
 
RIVER FLOWS ARE GENERALLY AVERAGING ABOVE TO WELL ABOVE NORMAL  
NOW DUE TO ABOVE NORMAL APRIL PRECIPITATION AND RUNOFF DUE TO  
SNOWMELT.  
 
SOIL MOISTURE CONDITIONS HAVE MOSTLY INCREASED OR REMAINED STEADY  
DUE TO THE ABOVE NORMAL PRECIPITATION THROUGH APRIL ALONG WITH  
INCREASING SNOWMELT ACROSS NORTHERN BASINS.  
 
THE LATEST PALMER DROUGHT SEVERITY INDEX, ISSUED ON APRIL 27,  
SHOWS UNUSUALLY MOIST CONDITIONS IN THE ADIRONDACKS OF NEW YORK.  
THE REST OF THE AREA HAS NORMAL MOISTURE STATES.  
 
TAKING A LOOK AT GROUNDWATER MONITORING WELLS, COURTESY OF THE  
USGS, MOST GAGES ARE INDICATING ABOVE NORMAL LEVELS HEADING INTO  
EARLY MAY. THE ONLY EXCEPTION TO THIS IS THE SAINT LAWRENCE VALLEY  
OF NORTHERN NEW YORK WHERE NEAR NORMAL TO BELOW NORMAL CONDITIONS  
EXIST.  
   
..WEATHER OUTLOOK
 
 
THE OVERALL PATTERN HAS BEEN ACTIVE OVER THE PAST MONTH, WITH  
ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND PRECIPITATION. A CONTINUED ACTIVE  
WEATHER PATTERN IS EXPECTED WITH CHANCES FOR SOME ABOVE NORMAL  
PRECIPITATION. AVERAGE TEMPERATURES WILL BE DEPENDENT ON  
INDIVIDUAL LOW TRACKS.  
 
THE OFFICIAL NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE 6-14 DAY OUTLOOK FOR 6 MAY  
THROUGH 14 MAY 2019 IS IN GENERAL AGREEMENT WITH THE ASSESSMENT  
FOR SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND CHANCES FOR ABOVE  
NORMAL PRECIPITATION.  
   
..SUMMARY
 
 
BASED ON THE ABOVE INFORMATION, THE THREAT FOR OPEN WATER  
FLOODING DUE TO RUNOFF FROM SNOWMELT AND RAINFALL IS ABOVE NORMAL  
ACROSS THE CHAMPLAIN VALLEY REGION OF NEW YORK AND VERMONT. THE  
FLOOD POTENTIAL ACROSS THE REST OF OUR FORECAST AREA IS NORMAL TO  
SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL.  
 
IT IS IMPORTANT TO NOTE THAT HEAVY RAINFALL CAN RESULT IN  
FLOODING AT ANY TIME OF THE YEAR, EVEN IN AREAS THAT HAVE LITTLE  
OR NO SNOW ON THE GROUND.  
 
BARRING A MAJOR LATE SEASON SNOW EVENT OVER THE NEXT TWO WEEKS,  
THIS WILL BE THE LAST WINTER/SPRING FLOOD POTENTIAL OUTLOOK ISSUED  
BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OFFICE IN BURLINGTON FOR THIS  
SEASON.  
 
ACCESS CURRENT WEATHER CONDITIONS AND FORECASTS ON OUR WEB SITE  
AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/BTV.  
 

 
 
NEILES  
 
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