534
FXUS66 KOTX 180603
AFDOTX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPOKANE WA
1003 PM PST WED DEC 17 2025
KEY MESSAGES
- MODERATE TO HIGH CONFIDENCE IN GUSTY WINDS DECLINING THROUGH
WEDNESDAY NIGHT, THEN ADDITIONAL GUSTY WINDS WITH GOING INTO
LATER THURSDAY AND FRIDAY WITH THE NEXT FRONT. GUSTS OF 20 TO
40 MPH WILL BE POSSIBLE.
- HEAVY MOUNTAIN SNOW TO IMPACT THE CASCADES THROUGH THE END OF
THE WEEK. THERE IS A 90% CHANCE OF 2 FEET OR MORE OF SNOW AT
STEVENS PASS THROUGH FRIDAY AFTERNOON.
- LIGHT TO MODERATE SNOW POSSIBLE AROUND THE HIGHER VALLEYS NEAR
THE CASCADES AND AROUND THE IDAHO PANHANDLE THURSDAY AND
FRIDAY.
SYNOPSIS
THE INLAND NORTHWEST WILL REMAIN IN AN ACTIVE PATTERN THROUGH
THE NEXT WEEK. BREEZY AND GUSTY WINDS WEDNESDAY WILL CONTINUE TO
DECLINE THIS EVENING. ANOTHER SYSTEM WILL BRING MOUNTAIN SNOW
AND A LOWLAND MIX THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY, ALONG WITH ADDITIONAL
GUSTY WINDS. THE PATTERN REMAINS ACTIVE HEADING INTO NEXT WEEK,
WITH CONTINUES OPPORTUNITIES FOR IMPACTFUL MOUNTAIN SNOW AND A
LOWLAND MIX.
DISCUSSION
TONIGHT: THE INLAND NW WILL REMAIN A STRONG WEST-NORTHWEST FLOW
WHILE THE EARLIER VIGOROUS SYSTEM MOVES EAST AND OUT. MODEL
SHOW GRADIENTS SLACKENING THROUGH THIS EVENING AS A WEAK MID-
LEVEL RIDGE BUILDS IN, ALLOWING WINDS TO CONTINUE THEIR GRADUAL
DECLINE THROUGH THIS EVENING. WINDS WILL REMAIN BREEZY/GUSTY FOR
SURE, BUT THEY ARE EXPECTED TO DECLINE BELOW SPEEDS THAT COULD
CAUSE SIGNIFICANT IMPACTS. THIS AFTERNOON TO EARLY EVENING THEY
WILL STILL GUST NEAR 20-40 MPH, THEN FURTHER DECLINE TO GUSTS
BETWEEN 15-25 MPH. THE MOST NOTABLE WIND SPEED DECLINE IS
EXPECTED TOWARD 6-9 PM. THE AFOREMENTIONED FLOW WILL CONTINUE TO
BRING SNOW TO THE CASCADE CREST AND AROUND THE CENTRAL
PANHANDLE MOUNTAIN. SOME LIGHT TO MODERATE ACCUMULATIONS ARE
FORECAST NEAR THE CASCADE CREST, WITH MAINLY LIGHT SNOW AROUND
THE CENTRAL PANHANDLE MOUNTAINS. TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST TO
BOTTOM OUT TONIGHT IN THE 20S TO LOW 30S, WITH SOME MID-30S
LOWER LEE OF THE CASCADES, DEEPER COLUMBIA BASIN AND L-C VALLEY.
THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY: THE NEXT FRONTAL WAVE MOVES THROUGH
THE REGION, WITH MOUNTAIN SNOW AND LOWLAND MIX TO CHANGING TO
RAIN. A WARM FRONT NOSES INTO THE AREA FROM THE SOUTHWEST AT THE
START OF THE DAY AND GRADUALLY LIFTS NORTHWARD BY LATER
AFTERNOON, BEFORE A COLD FRONT SLICES ACROSS THE AREA FROM THE
NORTHWEST THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY MORNING. OVERALL
PRECIPITATION CHANCES INCREASE THROUGH THE MORNING, BECOMING
MOST LIKELY AROUND THE REGION IN THE LATE MORNING TO EARLY
AFTERNOON AND CONTINUING THROUGH THE EVENING, BEFORE CHANCES
START TO DECLINE FROM THE WEST LATE THURSDAY EVENING INTO THE
OVERNIGHT BY FRIDAY THE BEST CHANCE FOR PRECIPITATION WILL
REMAIN AROUND THE THE CASCADES AND IDAHO PANHANDLE MOUNTAIN
ZONES. HIGHS WILL BE IN THE 30S NEAR THE CASCADES AND THE
NORTHERN MOUNTAINS CLOSER TO THE CANADIAN BORDER, WHILE 40S ARE
PROJECTED ELSEWHERE AND MAYBE SOME LOWER 50S TOWARD THE LOWER
PALOUSE AND L-C VALLEY.
* SNOW LEVELS: INITIALLY ARE EXPECTED TO BE HELD NEAR
1000-2000 FEET, THEN START TO RISE TOWARD 3000-6000 FEET
THROUGH THE AFTERNOON TO EVENING HOURS. THE LATEST AREA TO
RISE WILL BE TOWARD THE NORTHERN MOUNTAINS, WHICH MAY ONLY
GET TO AROUND 3000-4000 FEET BY EVENING. AREAS TOWARD THE
CASCADES WILL ARE ALSO APT TO SEE MORE COLD AIR DAMMING,
PARTICULARLY AREAS TOWARD THE METHOW VALLEY. THE SNOW LEVELS
REMAIN AROUND 2000-6000 FEET THROUGH THURSDAY EVENING, THEN
DROP TO BETWEEN 500-2000 FEET OVERNIGHT INTO FRIDAY, LOWEST
NEAR THE NORTH CASCADES FRIDAY AM. THROUGH THURSDAY EVENING,
THIS TRANSLATES TO MOSTLY MOUNTAIN SNOW AND A LOWLAND
RAIN/SNOW MIX CHANGING TO RAIN, EXCEPT NEAR THE METHOW WHERE
SNOW IS MORE LIKELY. THEN HEADING INTO THURSDAY OVERNIGHT
INTO FRIDAY PRECIPITATION IS MORE LIKELY TO BE ALL SNOW, SAVE
FOR SOUTHEAST WA INTO THE LOWER ID AND AROUND THE SPOKANE
VALLEY AREA WHERE RAIN/SNOW MIX OR ALL RAIN IS POSSIBLE.
* SNOW AMOUNTS AND HIGHLIGHTS: THE CASCADE CREST AND THE HIGHER
VALLEYS HEADING TOWARD THE CREST WILL SEE THE POTENTIAL FOR
SOME MODERATE ACCUMULATIONS. THERE IS AROUND 8-15 INCHES
AROUND THE CASCADE CREST, LOCALLY TO 18 INCHES THURSDAY
THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING. AN ADDITIONAL 4 TO 8 INCHES IS
POSSIBLE FRIDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT. THE HIGHER
VALLEYS AROUND THE CASCADES COULD SEE 2-5 INCHES, LOCALLY
NEAR 8 TO 9 INCHES OVER THE THE UPPER METHOW HEADING TOWARD
MAZAMA THROUGH THURSDAY EVENING, THEN ANOTHER 1-3 IS
POSSIBLE FRIDAY. MODERATE SNOW IS ALSO IN THE FORECAST AROUND
THE CENTRAL PANHANDLE MOUNTAINS THURSDAY AFTERNOON INTO
FRIDAY. WINTER WEATHER ADVISORIES ARE IN PLACE FOR THESE
AREAS. SOME FREEZING RAIN COULD BE MIXED IN NEAR THE CASCADES
DURING THE LATE MORNING TO AFTERNOON THURSDAY AND MILDER AIR
PUSHES IN ALOFT WITH THE WARM FRONT, BUT CONFIDENCE IS LOW;
LIGHT ICE ACCUMULATIONS ARE POSSIBLE. THE CASCADE CREST WILL
HAVE TO BE MONITORED FOR POSSIBLE UPGRADE SHOULD SNOW RATES
AND AMOUNTS INCREASE, WHICH WOULD BE MOST LIKELY THURSDAY
EVENING. THE WATERVILLE PLATEAU, NORTHERN MOUNTAINS AND
MOUNTAIN VALLEYS, HIGHER PALOUSE AND CAMAS PRAIRIE COULD SEE
0.5 TO 2 INCHES, WITH HIGHER AMOUNTS IN THE HIGHER MOUNTAINS.
THE BLUE MOUNTAINS COULD SEE SOME MODERATE SNOW TOO, BUT
MOST OF THAT IS EXPECTED TO BE IN THE HIGHER TERRAIN. ALL
THESE AREAS WILL BE MONITORED SHOULD FOR ANY ADVISORIES.
SPOKANE AREA AND NORTHERN COLUMBIA BASIN COULD SEE SOME SNOW
ON THURSDAY AS WELL, BUT AT THIS POINT ACCUMULATIONS ARE
EXPECTED TO BE LIGHTER AND MAY NOT HAVE MUCH IMPACT IF THEY
DO. BUT OF COURSE WILL WILL MONITOR THAT, SHOULD COLDER AIR
IMPACT THESE AREAS.
* WINDS: ADDITIONAL BREEZY/GUSTY WINDS ARE IN THE FORECAST WITH
THE THURSDAY AND FRIDAY SYSTEM. THE WIND INCREASE GRADUALLY
ON THURSDAY AND ARE FORECAST TO PEAK THURSDAY NIGHT INTO
EARLY FRIDAY WITH THE COLD FRONT. DURING THAT PEAK THE
FORECAST SHOWS GUSTS BETWEEN 20-40 MPH. THIS WILL BE
MONITORED FOR ANY NECESSARY HIGHLIGHTS.
SATURDAY TO WEDNESDAY: AN ACTIVE STORM TRACK WILL CONTINUE TO
IMPACT THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST, WITH CONTINUED OPPORTUNITIES FOR
PRECIPITATION EACH DAY. THE HIGHEST RISK ON THIS PERIOD COMES
AROUND SUNDAY INTO MONDAY, WHILE THE OTHER PERIODS THE BEST
CHANCES WILL BE AROUND THE MOUNTAIN ZONES. SATURDAY IS APT BE
LOWLAND SNOW, WITH SOME MIX IN THE AFTERNOON/EVENING. THEN
SUNDAY ONWARD WILL FEATURE A LOWLAND RAIN AND SNOW MIX, WITH
MORE IN THE WAY OF SNOW AS A POTENTIAL TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY.
THE MOUNTAINS ARE FORECAST TO LARGELY SEE SNOW AND SOME MODERATE
TO HEAVY ACCUMULATIONS ARE IN THE FORECAST. RIGHT NOW ANY SNOW
THAT MAY FALL IN THE LOWLANDS IS EXPECTED TO BE LIGHT. HIGHS ARE
FORECAST TO BE IN THE 30S AND LOWER 40S, WITH SOME MID 40S IN
THE DEEPER COLUMBIA BASIN AND L-C VALLEY AROUND SUNDAY AND
MONDAY. LOWS WILL BE IN THE 20S AND 30S, WITH SOME TEENS AROUND
THE SHELTERED MOUNTAINS VALLEYS. /SOLVEIG
AVIATION
06Z TAFS: VFR CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST FOR ALL SITES OVERNIGHT
WITH WINDS GENERALLY LESS THAN 15 KTS. AREAS OF LIGHT RAIN AND
SNOW WILL START UP THURSDAY MORNING BETWEEN 15-18Z BRINGING IFR
CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES. WINDS WILL PICK UP AGAIN SLIGHTLY
THURSDAY AFTERNOON WITH GUSTS UP TO 25 KTS.
.FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND/OR ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: MODERATE
CONFIDENCE ON TIMING OF RAIN AND SNOW DEVELOPING AND SUBSEQUENT
DEGRADATION TO IFR CONDITIONS.
-----------------------
CONFIDENCE DESCRIPTORS:
LOW - LESS THAN A 30 PERCENT CHANCE
MODERATE - 30 TO 70 PERCENT CHANCE
HIGH - GREATER THAN A 70 PERCENT CHANCE
FOR ADDITIONAL PROBABILISTIC INFORMATION FOR NWS SPOKANE
AIRPORTS,PLEASE REFER TO THE AVIATION DASHBOARD ON OUR
WEBPAGE: HTTPS:/WWW.WEATHER.GOV/OTX/AVNDASHBOARD
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
SPOKANE 32 45 33 39 30 38 / 10 90 80 20 20 40
COEUR D'ALENE 31 44 33 39 31 38 / 20 100 90 40 50 70
PULLMAN 32 44 35 39 30 38 / 10 100 100 70 40 50
LEWISTON 36 46 41 45 34 44 / 10 100 100 70 20 30
COLVILLE 28 37 26 38 24 37 / 20 90 80 20 20 60
SANDPOINT 31 38 31 37 29 36 / 40 100 100 40 70 90
KELLOGG 32 42 33 37 30 35 / 40 100 100 70 80 90
MOSES LAKE 35 43 32 43 28 43 / 10 100 50 10 10 10
WENATCHEE 35 39 30 39 29 38 / 30 100 80 20 30 40
OMAK 31 36 26 37 24 36 / 10 90 70 10 20 30
OTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
WA...HIGH WIND WARNING UNTIL 4 PM PST THIS AFTERNOON FOR CENTRAL
CHELAN COUNTY-LOWER GARFIELD AND ASOTIN COUNTIES-MOSES
LAKE AREA-NORTHEAST BLUE MOUNTAINS-NORTHEAST MOUNTAINS-
OKANOGAN HIGHLANDS-SPOKANE AREA-UPPER COLUMBIA BASIN-
WASHINGTON PALOUSE-WATERVILLE PLATEAU-WENATCHEE AREA-
WESTERN CHELAN COUNTY.
WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 4 PM PST THIS AFTERNOON FOR OKANOGAN
VALLEY-WESTERN OKANOGAN COUNTY.
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 10 AM TO 10 PM PST THURSDAY FOR
CENTRAL CHELAN COUNTY-WESTERN OKANOGAN COUNTY.
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 4 AM PST FRIDAY FOR WESTERN
CHELAN COUNTY.
ID...HIGH WIND WARNING UNTIL 4 PM PST THIS AFTERNOON FOR CENTRAL
PANHANDLE MOUNTAINS-COEUR D'ALENE AREA-IDAHO PALOUSE-
LEWIS AND SOUTHERN NEZ PERCE COUNTIES-LEWISTON AREA-
NORTHERN PANHANDLE.
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM NOON THURSDAY TO 10 AM PST FRIDAY
FOR CENTRAL PANHANDLE MOUNTAINS.
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