780
FXUS66 KOTX 160909
AFDOTX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPOKANE WA
209 AM PDT THU JUL 16 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- HOT AND UNSTABLE CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THURSDAY, WITH
WIDESPREAD HIGHS IN THE MID 90S TO LOW TRIPLE DIGITS.
- A MIX OF WET AND DRY THUNDERSTORMS WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH
FRIDAY WILL BRING LIGHTNING, HAIL, AND STRONG OUTFLOW WINDS.
- DRY CONDITIONS RESUME THIS WEEKEND, WITH TEMPERATURES
REMAINING WARM IN THE UPPER 80S AND 90S.
SYNOPSIS
HOT AND UNSTABLE CONDITIONS, LOW HUMIDITY, LIGHTNING, AND
GUSTY WINDS WILL MAINTAIN CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS
ACROSS PORTIONS OF CENTRAL AND EASTERN WASHINGTON THROUGH AT
LEAST THURSDAY. DRY CONDITIONS RESUME THIS WEEKEND.
DISCUSSION
WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY MORNING: AN UPPER-LEVEL SHORTWAVE
TRACKING NORTHWARD THROUGH THE INLAND NORTHWEST WILL CONTINUE
TO PROVIDE FORCING NECESSARY FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS ACROSS
CENTRAL AND EASTERN WA. PRECIPITABLE WATER (PWAT) VALUES REMAIN
HIGH, RANGING FROM 160 TO 200 PERCENT OF NORMAL DUE TO
MONSOONAL MOISTURE IN PLACE OVER THE REGION. WHILE THE HIGH-PWAT
ENVIRONMENT WILL SUPPORT RAINFALL, FAST STORM MOTION WILL LIMIT
RAINFALL TOTALS TO A TENTH OF AN INCH OR LESS FOR MOST AREAS,
EXCEPT WHERE MULTIPLE CELLS MOVE OVER THE SAME AREA. GIVEN FUEL
DRYNESS, ANY LIGHTNING STRIKES WILL BE OF CONCERN FOR NEW
WILDFIRE STARTS. CONSEQUENTLY, RED FLAG WARNINGS REMAIN IN
EFFECT ACROSS CENTRAL WA THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING.
THURSDAY AFTERNOON INTO THURSDAY NIGHT: AMPLE SURFACE HEATING
COMBINED WITH 40 TO 45 KNOTS OF 0-6KM BULK SHEAR AND MUCAPE
VALUES OF 1000 TO 1500 J/KG WILL SUPPORT ROBUST STORM
DEVELOPMENT OVER THE EASTERN THIRD OF WA AND THE ID PANHANDLE.
DEEP INVERTED-V SOUNDINGS AND DCAPE VALUES OVER 1500 J/KG
INDICATE POTENTIAL FOR STRONG TO LOCALLY SEVERE OUTFLOW WINDS AS
A PRIMARY HAZARD WITH ANY STORMS, ALONGSIDE LIGHTNING AND HAIL.
INSTABILITY LOOKS TO PERSIST WELL INTO THURSDAY NIGHT, KEEPING
THE THREAT OF THUNDERSTORMS ALIVE UNTIL MIDNIGHT OR LATER. GIVEN
ALL OF THESE FAVORABLE PARAMETERS FOR STRONG STORMS, THE STORM
PREDICTION CENTER HAS PLACED FAR EASTERN WA AND THE ID PANHANDLE
UNDER A MARGINAL RISK FOR SEVERE STORMS THURSDAY.
ASIDE FROM CONVECTION, TEMPERATURES WILL BE QUITE WARM ON
THURSDAY, RUNNING ROUGHLY 5 DEGREES WARMER THAN WEDNESDAY. THIS
WILL RESULT IN WIDESPREAD MODERATE TO MAJOR HEATRISK ACROSS
LOWLAND AREAS, WHERE A HEAT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT.
TEMPERATURES COOL SLIGHTLY ON FRIDAY BY 5 TO 10 DEGREES,
LOWERING THE RISK BACK INTO THE MINOR TO MODERATE CATEGORIES FOR
MOST LOCATIONS.
FRIDAY: A DRY SLOT WILL PIVOT OVER CENTRAL AND EASTERN WA,
LOWERING PWATS AND BRINGING BREEZY WINDS. THE COMBINATION OF
WINDS AND DRIER AIR WILL BRING FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS FOR ANY NEW
OR EXISTING FIRES. THUNDERSTORM CHANCES FRIDAY WILL BE CONFINED
TO FAR NORTHEAST WA AND THE ID PANHANDLE WITH DRY CONDITIONS
ELSEWHERE.
SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY: GLOBAL ENSEMBLE CLUSTERS SHOW HIGH
CONFIDENCE IN THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM ALONG THE WEST COAST
TRACKING NORTHEASTWARD INTO BRITISH COLUMBIA BEFORE MIGRATING
EASTWARD INTO ALBERTA. FOLLOWING THE EXIT OF THE LOW, DRY
WESTERLY FLOW WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE WEEKEND. HIGH
TEMPERATURES WILL HOVER IN THE UPPER 80S TO MID 90S. BY EARLY
NEXT WEEK, MODELS SUGGEST ANOTHER TROUGH APPROACHING THE WEST
COAST. SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW IS EXPECTED TO ADVECT MORE MONSOONAL
MOISTURE INTO THE REGION, BRINGING A RENEWED RISK OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS THAT WILL NEED TO BE MONITORED IN THE COMING DAYS.
/FEWKES
AVIATION
06Z TAFS: HIGH CONFIDENCE FOR VFR CONDITIONS ACROSS EASTERN WA
AND NORTH IDAHO. ANOTHER ROUND OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS CAN
BE SEEN ON RADAR MOVING NORTHWARD OVER THE CASCADES AND COLUMBIA
BASIN. A 20-30% CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL PERSIST
OVER CENTRAL WA THROUGH AROUND 14Z. CONFIDENCE ON A SHOWER OR
STORM IMPACTING TERMINALS IS MODERATE FOR KMWH AND KEAT. YET
ANOTHER ROUND OF STORMS MOVES IN OVER EASTERN WA AND NORTH ID
THURSDAY MORNING, BRINGING A 10-20% FOR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS TO (KPUW/KLWS/KGEG/KSFF/KCOE) AFTER 18Z.
FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND/OR ALTERNATE SCENARIOS:
HIGH CONFIDENCE FOR VFR CONDITIONS FOR THE AREA. CONFIDENCE IS
MODERATE ON SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IMPACTING KMWH AND KEAT.
CONFIDENCE IS LOWER FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS IMPACTING
KPUW/KLWS/KGEG/KSFF/KCOE.
-----------------------
CONFIDENCE DESCRIPTORS:
LOW - LESS THAN A 30 PERCENT CHANCE
MODERATE - 30 TO 70 PERCENT CHANCE
HIGH - GREATER THAN A 70 PERCENT CHANCE
FOR ADDITIONAL PROBABILISTIC INFORMATION FOR NWS SPOKANE AIRPORTS,
PLEASE REFER TO THE AVIATION DASHBOARD ON OUR WEBPAGE:
HTTPS:/WWW.WEATHER.GOV/OTX/AVNDASHBOARD
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
SPOKANE 100 63 91 59 91 59 / 20 20 10 0 0 0
COEUR D'ALENE 100 64 91 61 91 59 / 20 30 10 10 0 0
PULLMAN 95 55 86 53 87 53 / 20 30 10 10 0 0
LEWISTON 102 66 94 64 96 63 / 30 20 0 10 0 0
COLVILLE 98 60 93 56 91 55 / 30 40 10 0 0 0
SANDPOINT 97 64 91 61 91 58 / 20 40 20 10 0 0
KELLOGG 97 60 89 59 87 57 / 20 20 20 10 0 0
MOSES LAKE 99 62 93 59 93 59 / 30 10 0 0 0 0
WENATCHEE 97 66 92 64 92 65 / 50 10 0 0 0 0
OMAK 100 66 95 60 95 60 / 40 30 10 0 0 0
OTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
WA...HEAT ADVISORY FROM NOON TODAY TO 9 PM PDT THIS EVENING FOR
LOWER GARFIELD AND ASOTIN COUNTIES-SPOKANE AREA-
WASHINGTON PALOUSE.
RED FLAG WARNING FROM 1 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 11 PM PDT THIS
EVENING FOR LOWER PALOUSE -SNAKE RIVER (ZONE 709).
RED FLAG WARNING FROM 11 AM THIS MORNING TO 11 PM PDT THIS
EVENING FOR EASTERN COLUMBIA BASIN -PALOUSE -SPOKANE
AREA (ZONE 708)-FOOTHILLS OF NORTHEAST WASHINGTON (ZONE
701).
RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 11 AM PDT THIS MORNING FOR EAST PORTION
OF NORTH CASCADES NATIONAL PARK/LAKE CHELAN NATIONAL
RECREATION AREA (ZONE 697)-EAST WASHINGTON CENTRAL
CASCADES (ZONE 696)-EAST WASHINGTON NORTH CASCADES (ZONE
698)-FOOTHILLS OF CENTRAL WASHINGTON CASCADES (ZONE 705)-
METHOW VALLEY (ZONE 704)-WATERVILLE PLATEAU (ZONE 706)-
WESTERN COLUMBIA BASIN (ZONE 707).
HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 9 PM PDT THIS EVENING FOR MOSES LAKE AREA-
OKANOGAN VALLEY-UPPER COLUMBIA BASIN-WATERVILLE PLATEAU-
WENATCHEE AREA.
RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 11 PM PDT THIS EVENING FOR COLVILLE
RESERVATION (ZONE 702)-OKANOGAN HIGHLANDS AND KETTLE
MOUNTAINS (ZONE 699)-OKANOGAN VALLEY (ZONE 703).
ID...HEAT ADVISORY FROM NOON TODAY TO 9 PM PDT THIS EVENING FOR
COEUR D'ALENE AREA-IDAHO PALOUSE-LEWIS AND SOUTHERN NEZ
PERCE COUNTIES-LEWISTON AREA.
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