076
FXUS66 KOTX 090557
AFDOTX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPOKANE WA
1057 PM PDT SUN MAR 8 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- COLDER WITH MODERATE TO HEAVY MOUNTAIN SNOW NEXT WEEK OVER
THE CASCADE AND NORTH IDAHO MOUNTAIN PASSES.
- ELEVATED WINDS THROUGH NEXT WEEK. POTENTIAL FOR STRONG WINDS
WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT.
SYNOPSIS
STRONG WESTERLY WINDS WILL PERSIST INTO THE LATE AFTERNOON AND
EARLY EVENING HOURS BEFORE DECREASING SUNDAY NIGHT. PERSISTENT
SNOW WILL BRING SEVERAL DAYS OF WINTER TRAVEL CONDITIONS OVER
THE MOUNTAINS NEXT WEEK. HEAVY SNOW IS EXPECTED OVER THE
CASCADE CREST INCLUDING STEVENS PASS SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY
NIGHT. WE ARE ALSO MONITORING WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY FOR
HEAVY MOUNTAIN SNOW, STRONG WINDS, AND THE POTENTIAL FOR LIGHT
LOWLAND SNOW ACCUMULATIONS IN THE NORTHERN MOUNTAIN VALLEYS.
ADDITIONAL MODERATE TO HEAVY SNOW IN THE MOUNTAINS WILL BE
POSSIBLE INTO NEXT WEEKEND AS WELL.
DISCUSSION
...PERIODS OF HEAVY SNOW IN THE MOUNTAINS THIS WEEK AND POTENTIAL
FOR STRONG WINDS WEDNESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT...
TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT: AN ACTIVE POLAR JET WILL BRING
SUSTAINED PERIODS OF SNOW INTO THE CASCADES. THE JET SAGS SOUTH A
BIT THROUGH THE DAY ON MONDAY WITH COLDER MORE UNSTABLE AIR
MOVING IN OVER THE REGION. MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES WILL STEEPEN TO
NEAR 8 C/KM BY MONDAY AFTERNOON. MOIST UPSLOPE FLOW INTO THE
WINDWARD SIDE OF THE CASCADES WILL RESULT IN PERIODS OF HEAVY
SNOW BEGINNING LATE THIS EVENING AND CONTINUING THROUGH MONDAY
NIGHT. INCREASED INSTABILITY WILL RESULT IN CONVECTIVE SNOW
BANDS WITH SNOWFALL RATES OF UP TO AN INCH PER HOUR AT TIMES.
STEVENS PASS IS EXPECTED TO SEE BETWEEN 1 TO 2 FEET OF SNOW
THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT. A WINTER STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT
THROUGH 5AM TUESDAY. STRONG WESTERLY FLOW WITH THE UPPER LEVEL
JET SQUARELY OVER THE REGION WILL RESULT IN A STRONG
PRECIPITATION SHADOW ACROSS MUCH OF EASTERN WASHINGTON AWAY
FROM THE CASCADE CREST. AS SUCH, THE COLUMBIA BASIN WILL
CONTINUE TO REMAIN DRY. THE COLUMBIA BASIN HASN'T SEEN MUCH
RAINFALL SO FAR THIS YEAR AND THAT IS HAVING AN IMPACT ONCE
WINDS BECOME GUSTY AS APPARENT WITH WHAT WAS OBSERVED SUNDAY
AFTERNOON. A CHANNEL OF BLOW DUST WAS OBSERVED IN THE MOSES LAKE
AREA WITH THE GUSTY WINDS IN THE AFTERNOON. THE GOOD NEWS IS
THAT WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO DECREASE TONIGHT AND WON'T BE NEARLY
AS GUSTY ON MONDAY. I DO NOT EXPECT BLOWING DUST TO BE A CONCERN
ON MONDAY, BUT RENEWED CONCERNS FOR BLOWING DUST MAY COME
WEDNESDAY (READ ON FOR MORE).
LOOKOUT PASS WILL ALSO SEE THE POTENTIAL FOR CONVECTIVE SNOW
SHOWERS AS MOISTURE INCREASES IN THE DENDRITIC LAYER MONDAY
INTO MONDAY NIGHT. ACCUMULATIONS WON'T BE NEAR THAT OF WHAT IS
EXPECTED OVER THE CASCADE CREST, AND SNOW ACCUMULATIONS ARE MORE
LIKELY AS TEMPERATURES DECREASE MONDAY NIGHT. THE CONVECTIVE
NATURE OF THE SNOW MAKES IT DIFFICULT TO JUDGE HOW MUCH SNOW
WILL FALL OVER LOOKOUT PASS. PROGNOSES IS THAT TOTAL
ACCUMULATION WILL TOTAL UP TO 3 INCHES, BUT A HEAVY SNOW SHOWER
COULD DROP A QUICK INCH WITH THE PASS BECOME SNOW COVERED AND
MAKING TRAVEL DIFFICULT.
TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY: LIGHT SNOW WILL CONTINUE TO FALL OVER THE
CASCADE CREST AND IN THE IDAHO PANHANDLE THROUGH TUESDAY, BUT
SNOWFALL RATES WILL DECREASE. THIS WILL CHANGE FOR THE WORSE ONCE WE
GET INTO LATE TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT. A STRONG UPPER LEVEL JET
STREAK DEVELOPS NEAR THE 50N LONGITUDINAL LINE IN THE EASTERN
PACIFIC INTO SOUTHERN BC. STRONG JET DYNAMICS IN THE LEFT EXIT
REGION WILL SPIN UP A FAIRLY STRONG SURFACE LOW IN SOUTHERN BC
TO SOUTHERN ALBERTA WEDNESDAY EVENING. A HANDFUL OF ECMWF
ENSEMBLE MEMBERS INDICATES A SURFACE LOW AS STRONG AS AROUND 990
MB. IF THIS VERIFIES, THEN WE COULD BE LOOKING AT HITTING HIGH
WIND CRITERIA ACROSS THE REGION (SUSTAINED WINDS OF 45+ MPH
AND/OR GUSTS OF 58+ MPH). CONFIDENCE FOR THIS SCENARIO IS LOW AS
IT REPRESENTS A MINORITY OF THE TOTAL ENSEMBLE, BUT DEFINITELY
BEARS WATCHING. THE CONSENSUS IS THAT WINDS WILL BE AT LEAST AS
STRONG AS MONDAY IF NOT A LITTLE STRONGER. THE STRONG POLAR JET
WILL ALSO BRING A SIGNIFICANT MOISTURE PLUME WITH PWATS UP TO
0.9 INCHES OFF OF THE EASTERN PACIFIC INTO THE STATE OF
WASHINGTON. THE CASCADE MOUNTAINS WILL GET POUNDED WITH HEAVY
SNOW OVER A 48-60 HOUR PERIOD FROM TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY
MORNING. TOTAL SNOW ACCUMULATIONS WILL BE MEASURED IN FEET
RATHER THAN INCHES. THE CASCADE MOUNTAINS, INCLUDING STEVENS
PASS, HAS A 90% CHANCE OF PICKING UP AT LEAST 2 FEET OF SNOW
OVER THIS PERIOD, AND A 20% CHANCE OF PICKING UP AT LEAST 4 FEET
OF SNOW!!! THIS WILL BE GREAT FOR ADDING TO A DEPLETED
SNOWPACK, BUT THIS MUCH SNOW ALSO CAN RESULT IN TREE DAMAGE AND
COULD MAJORLY DISRUPT TRAVEL OVER THE CASCADES. SNOW AMOUNTS
WON'T BE AS HIGH OVER THE MOUNTAINS OF THE IDAHO PANHANDLE WITH
BETWEEN 12- 18 INCHES EXPECTED. A WINTER STORM WATCH IS IN
EFFECT IN THE CENTRAL TO NORTHERN CASCADES THAT INCLUDES STEVENS
PASS FOR LATE TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING.
THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY: UNCERTAINTY IN THE STORM TRACK
REMAINS FOR THE FAR EXTENDED. THE PLUME OF MOISTURE ASSOCIATED
WITH A MODERATE ATMOSPHERIC RIVER THAT PUMMELS THE MOUNTAINS
WITH SNOW WILL POTENTIALLY SAG A BIT FURTHER SOUTH OVER NORTHERN
OREGON, OR CONTINUE TO BE STEERED ACROSS THE STATE OF
WASHINGTON. WHERE THIS ATMOSPHERIC RIVER SETS UP WILL IMPACT HOW
MUCH MOISTURE WE SEE, SNOW LEVELS, AND TEMPERATURES. THE
LEADING SCENARIO IS FOR SNOW LEVELS GENERALLY AROUND 3,000 FEET.
A BIT LOWER WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR SNOW IN THE VALLEYS CLOSER
TO THE CANADIAN BORDER AND A BIT HIGHER ACROSS THE SOUTHERN
ZONES. THIS WOULD CONTINUE TO BRING HEAVY SNOW TO THE MOUNTAINS
AND POTENTIALLY SNOW IN THE VALLEYS, PARTICULARLY FOR THE
NORTHERN PANHANDLE. A STORM TRACK BIT FURTHER NORTH WOULD MEAN
HIGHER SNOW LEVELS AND TEMPERATURES A BIT MORE MILD. THIS
INTRODUCES THE POTENTIAL FOR FLOODING CONCERNS AND ROCK SLIDES
AND/OR DEBRIS FLOWS. OF PARTICULAR INTEREST WILL BE THOSE
COMMUNITIES IN THE EAST SLOPES OF THE CASCADES INCLUDING THAT OF
STEHEKIN. NOT GOOD NEWS AT ALL FOR THOSE IN STEHEKIN THAT ARE
SENSITIVE TO THE POTENTIAL OF SUSTAINED PERIOD OF HEAVIER
RAINFALL. /SVH
AVIATION
06Z TAFS: WINDS WILL REMAIN BREEZY THROUGH THE NIGHT, AND THEN
GUSTS PICKING UP AGAIN WITH DIURNAL HEATING ON MONDAY. WIND
GUSTS WON'T BE NEARLY OF THE MAGNITUDE AS SUNDAY WITH GUSTS
PEAKING GENERALLY IN THE RANGE OF 20-35 KTS. OTHERWISE, VFR
CONDITIONS WITH PRECIPITATION CONFINED TO THE CASCADE CREST AND
IDAHO PANHANDLE OVERNIGHT THROUGH EARLY MONDAY AFTERNOON. WEAK
CONVECTIVE INSTABILITY MAY SPARK AREAS OF SNOW SHOWERS AROUND
23-06Z IN EASTERN WA AND NORTH ID, BUT CONFIDENCE IS LOW FOR
COVERAGE.
FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND/OR ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: MODERATE-HIGH
CONFIDENCE FOR VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH MONDAY. THERE IS A 10-20%
CHANCE FOR LOWER CEILINGS THAN FORECAST AT KPUW DOWN TO AROUND 3
KFT WITH SHOWERS INTO THE EVENING MONDAY.
-----------------------
CONFIDENCE DESCRIPTORS:
LOW - LESS THAN A 30 PERCENT CHANCE
MODERATE - 30 TO 70 PERCENT CHANCE
HIGH - GREATER THAN A 70 PERCENT CHANCE
FOR ADDITIONAL PROBABILISTIC INFORMATION FOR NWS SPOKANE
AIRPORTS,PLEASE REFER TO THE AVIATION DASHBOARD ON OUR
WEBPAGE: HTTPS:/WWW.WEATHER.GOV/OTX/AVNDASHBOARD
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
SPOKANE 29 41 25 41 31 48 / 20 20 40 10 40 70
COEUR D'ALENE 30 41 25 41 29 45 / 30 40 60 40 50 90
PULLMAN 29 39 25 39 29 46 / 60 40 70 40 40 80
LEWISTON 37 46 30 46 32 51 / 40 30 60 10 30 70
COLVILLE 27 44 23 44 29 47 / 0 30 20 20 40 80
SANDPOINT 30 39 25 39 29 42 / 30 50 70 50 60 100
KELLOGG 29 36 27 36 29 43 / 80 60 90 70 60 100
MOSES LAKE 30 47 26 48 32 55 / 0 10 10 10 10 30
WENATCHEE 32 44 28 44 32 48 / 10 30 10 20 40 70
OMAK 30 46 25 44 31 46 / 0 10 10 10 30 70
OTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
WA...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 9 PM PDT THIS EVENING FOR LOWER GARFIELD
AND ASOTIN COUNTIES-MOSES LAKE AREA-NORTHEAST MOUNTAINS-
SPOKANE AREA-UPPER COLUMBIA BASIN-WASHINGTON PALOUSE-
WATERVILLE PLATEAU-WENATCHEE AREA.
WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 5 AM PDT TUESDAY FOR WESTERN CHELAN
COUNTY.
WINTER STORM WATCH FROM LATE TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY
MORNING FOR WESTERN CHELAN COUNTY.
ID...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 9 PM PDT THIS EVENING FOR CENTRAL
PANHANDLE MOUNTAINS-COEUR D'ALENE AREA-IDAHO PALOUSE-
NORTHERN PANHANDLE.
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