101
FXUS66 KOTX 151750
AFDOTX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPOKANE WA
1050 AM PDT MON SEP 15 2025
KEY MESSAGES
- SHOWERS LINGERING OVER NORTHEAST WASHINGTON AND THE IDAHO
PANHANDLE THROUGH MONDAY AFTERNOON.
- WARM AND DRY TUESDAY THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK.
SYNOPSIS
SHOWERS LINGER ACROSS NORTHEAST WASHINGTON AND NORTH IDAHO
THROUGH MONDAY AFTERNOON. HIGH PRESSURE REBUILDS TUESDAY WITH A
WARMER AND DRY CONDITIONS THROUGH THE WORK WEEK.
DISCUSSION
MONDAY: AN UPPER-LEVEL LOW OVER THE NORTHERN ROCKIES EARLY THIS
MORNING WILL GRADUALLY SHIFT SOUTHEAST AS A RIDGE BUILDS INTO THE
PACIFIC NORTHWEST FROM THE WEST. WRAP AROUND MOISTURE AROUND
THIS LOW WILL KEEP WIDESPREAD CLOUD COVER ACROSS FAR EASTERN
WASHINGTON AND THE IDAHO PANHANDLE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON, ALONG
WITH A 30-60% CHANCE OF SHOWERS ACROSS NORTHEAST WASHINGTON AND
THE CENTRAL PANHANDLE AND A 50-70% CHANCE OVER FAR NORTH IDAHO.
THIS WILL KEEP AFTERNOON HIGHS IN THE MID 60S TO LOW 70S IN
THESE AREAS. FARTHER WEST, CLEARING SKIES AND THE BUILDING RIDGE
WILL ALLOW HIGHS IN CENTRAL WASHINGTON TO WARM INTO THE MID 70S
TO LOW 80S. BY MONDAY NIGHT, THE RIDGE WILL SHIFT INTO EASTERN
WASHINGTON AND NORTH IDAHO, WITH SKIES CLEARING FROM WEST TO
EAST.
TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY: MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT THE
RIDGE WILL HOLD OVER THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY,
ALLOWING TEMPERATURES TO WARM INTO THE MID TO UPPER 80S BY
WEDNESDAY. A THERMALLY-INDUCED SURFACE TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP
WEST OF THE CASCADES MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY, SHIFTING THE GENERAL
WIND DIRECTION TO THE EAST. A WEAK FRONT AND UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH ARE
THEN EXPECTED TO CLIP WESTERN WASHINGTON TUESDAY NIGHT INTO
WEDNESDAY, SHIFTING WINDS ACROSS THE INLAND NORTHWEST BACK TO THE
WEST AND SOUTHWEST. GUIDANCE HAS TRENDED WEAKER WITH THE WINDS ON
WEDNESDAY, SUGGESTING MINIMAL IMPACTS TO THE INLAND NORTHWEST. THE
CURRENT FORECAST KEEPS TEMPERATURES FAIRLY CONSISTENT THROUGH THE
REMAINDER OF THE WORK WEEK WITH RIDGING AND SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT
PERSISTING.
FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY: FORECAST UNCERTAINTY INCREASES HEADING INTO
THE WEEKEND. ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE SUGGESTS A CLOSED LOW DEVELOPING OFF
THE CALIFORNIA COAST WHILE RIDGING REMAINS OVER THE PACIFIC
NORTHWEST. THE EXACT STRENGTH AND PLACEMENT OF THE LOW AND THE
STRENGTH OF THE RIDGE REMAIN UNCERTAIN, BUT A STRONGER UPPER-LEVEL
LOW AND A POSITION CLOSER TO CALIFORNIA WOULD FAVOR DEEPER SOUTHERLY
FLOW, DRAWING MOISTURE NORTHWARD AND INCREASING THE RISK OF SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS. BY SATURDAY AND SUNDAY, ENSEMBLES ARE BEGINNING TO
SUGGEST THE ARRIVAL OF A COLD FRONT, WHICH WOULD BRING A PERIOD OF
MORE UNSETTLED WEATHER. /VMT
AVIATION
18Z TAFS: IFR/MVFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE TO IMPROVE GRADUALLY
OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS AS THE SURFACE HEATS UP AND DEW
POINT DEPRESSIONS INCREASE. VFR CONDITIONS WITH LIGHT WINDS ARE
EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON ONWARD. LINGERING SHOWER ACTIVITY THIS
MORNING IN EASTERN WASHINGTON AND NORTH IDAHO WILL START TO
DWINDLE AROUND 19-22Z.
FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND/OR ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: HIGH CONFIDENCE
IN IMPROVING CONDITIONS FOR KGEG-KSFF-KCOE THROUGH THE MORNING
AND INTO THE EARLY AFTERNOON. LOW CONFIDENCE FOR SHOWER ACTIVITY
IMPACTING A TAF SITE.
-----------------------
CONFIDENCE DESCRIPTORS:
LOW - LESS THAN A 30 PERCENT CHANCE
MODERATE - 30 TO 70 PERCENT CHANCE
HIGH - GREATER THAN A 70 PERCENT CHANCE
FOR ADDITIONAL PROBABILISTIC INFORMATION FOR NWS SPOKANE
AIRPORTS, PLEASE REFER TO THE AVIATION DASHBOARD ON OUR WEBPAGE:
HTTPS:/WEATHER.GOV/OTX/AVNDASHBOARD
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
SPOKANE 68 48 82 54 86 53 / 10 10 0 0 0 0
COEUR D'ALENE 66 49 82 55 86 54 / 30 10 0 0 0 0
PULLMAN 66 45 78 49 83 49 / 10 0 0 0 0 0
LEWISTON 72 52 83 57 88 58 / 10 0 0 0 0 0
COLVILLE 71 40 82 44 87 44 / 40 10 0 0 0 0
SANDPOINT 63 45 80 50 84 49 / 60 10 0 0 0 0
KELLOGG 62 49 80 56 85 57 / 50 10 0 0 0 0
MOSES LAKE 76 50 83 51 86 52 / 0 0 0 0 0 0
WENATCHEE 77 56 81 59 86 61 / 0 0 0 0 0 0
OMAK 78 53 85 55 88 57 / 10 0 0 0 0 0
OTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
WA...NONE.
ID...NONE.
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