261  
FXUS66 KOTX 161807  
AFDOTX  
 
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION  
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPOKANE WA  
1107 AM PDT FRI APR 16 2021  
   
SYNOPSIS
 
 
BREEZY NORTHEAST WINDS WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE UPPER COLUMBIA  
BASIN, WEST PLAINS, AND MOSES LAKE AREA THROUGH FRIDAY. A WARM  
AND DRY WEEKEND IS IN STORE FOR THE INLAND NORTHWEST. HIGH  
TEMPERATURES ON SUNDAY WILL BE WELL INTO THE 70S WITH LOW TO MID  
80S EXPECTED IN CENTRAL WASHINGTON. A COLD FRONT LATE SUNDAY,  
MONDAY EXPECTED TO BRING ANOTHER PUSH OF STRONG NORTHERLY WINDS  
AND COOLER TEMPS.  
 

 
   
DISCUSSION
 
 
...DRY AND WINDY CONDITIONS EXPECTED SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND MONDAY  
MORNING...  
 
TODAY AND SATURDAY: A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL LEAD TO  
TEMPERATURES WILL STEADILY CLIMB THROUGH SATURDAY WITH HIGHS TO 10  
TO 15 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR. THE BREEZY  
WINDS WILL CALM AS THE PRESSURE GRADIENT LOOSENS ACROSS THE REGION  
BUT STILL HAVE PERIODS OF BREEZY WINDS MAINLY DURING THE  
AFTERNOON. WINDS SPEEDS EXPECTED TO BE SUSTAINED IN THE TEENS WITH  
GUSTS INTO THE LOW 20S MPH. WHILE THE WINDS MIGHT NOT SEEM VERY  
STRONG, THE WINDS AND DRY SPELL ACROSS THE REGION COULD LEAD TO  
QUICK FIRE SPREAD. ENSEMBLES HAVE INCREASED THE HIGHS A DEGREE OR  
TWO. HIGHS WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE UPPER 60S AND MID 70S.  
OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL BE IN THE UPPER 30S TO MID 40S. /JDC  
 
SUNDAY AND MONDAY: A TROUGH WILL SLIDE SOUTH THROUGH THE IDAHO  
PANHANDLE AND TRAVEL SOUTH AND EAST ALONG THE NORTHERN ROCKIES  
SUNDAY. WHILE WASHINGTON WAS UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF HIGH PRESSURE,  
THE RIDGE WILL RELOCATE SOUTHWEST OFF-SHORE SUNDAY WITH THE  
APPROACHING NORTHERLY COLD FRONT. WINDS ACROSS THE COLUMBIA BASIN  
AND NORTHERN PANHANDLE WILL SEE A DRASTIC SHIFT IN DIRECTION FROM  
THE SOUTHWEST TO THE NORTHEAST WITH THE FRONTAL PASSAGE SUNDAY  
AFTERNOON.  
 
THIS WIND SHIFT/FRONTAL PASSAGE LOOKS LIKE IT HAS BEEN TRENDING A  
BIT EARLIER PER RECENT MODEL RUNS. SUNDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING WILL  
SEE THE WIND SHIFT AND PEAK WIND SPEEDS FROM NORTHERN IDAHO  
THROUGH SOUTH-CENTRAL COLUMBIA BASIN (SANDPOINT - COEUR D'ALENE -  
MOSES LAKE). ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE IS HINTING AT THE POTENTIAL FOR  
SUNDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING CONVECTION WITH THE FRONTAL PASSAGE.  
HAVE KEPT A MENTION OF SLIGHT CHANCE IN THE FORECAST FOR FAR  
NORTHERN ID WITH THE THOUGHT OF ISOLATED LIGHTNING CHANCES, WHICH  
WILL BE OF CONCERN FOR FIRE DANGER.  
 
*THE THREAT FOR BLOWING DUST WILL ONCE AGAIN BE OF CONCERN SINCE  
WE HAVEN'T SEEN ANY APPRECIABLE PRECIPITATION, OR NONE AT ALL  
REALLY IN THE LAST FEW WEEKS.  
*ANOTHER CONCERN WILL BE ELEVATED FIRE DANGER WITH RECENT WARM  
TEMPERATURES, LOW HUMIDITY AND GUSTY WINDS.  
*THIS FRONT DOES NOT LOOK TO POSE MUCH THREAT OF PRECIPITATION  
OUTSIDE OF A FEW HUNDREDTHS ALONG THE IDAHO/MONTANA BORDER OF THE  
ROCKIES.  
*TEMPERATURES WILL ALSO SEE A 10-14 DEGREE COOL-DOWN BY MONDAY,  
BRINGING VALUES CLOSER TO SEASONAL NORMAL.  
 
TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY: THE REST OF THE WEEK THE WEATHER WILL BE  
PRETTY UNEVENTFUL AS TEMPERATURES GRADUALLY CLIMB BACK ABOVE  
SEASONAL NORMAL THROUGH THE WEEK. FROM THE UPPER 50S/LOW 60S  
TUESDAY TO THE UPPER 60S/LOW 70S BY FRIDAY. ENSEMBLE MODEL  
SOLUTIONS ARE PRETTY OUT OF LINE WITH EACH OTHER REGARDING THE  
NEXT SHORTWAVE AND WHETHER OR NOT IT WILL PROVIDE ANY  
PRECIPITATION TO THE REGION, BUT THERE IS A SMALL WINDOW OF  
OPPORTUNITY WITH SOME GUIDANCE SUGGESTING VERY LIGHT PRECIPITATION  
(LESS THAN A QUARTER OF AN INCH) MAY FALL SOMETIME BETWEEN  
WEDNESDAY AND FRIDAY. /DEWEY  
 

 
   
AVIATION
 
 
18Z TAFS: VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED ACROSS ALL TAF SITES THROUGH 18Z  
SATURDAY. COMPARED TO YESTERDAY, WINDS WILL BE CONSIDERABLY WEAKER  
AT MOST OF THE TAF SITES. THE MAIN WINDS TODAY WILL LARGELY IMPACT  
PUW AND MWH DUE TO THE PRESENCE OF A BAND OF MODERATE EASTERLY WINDS  
IN THIS AREA AND POINTS SOUTH TO THE OR BORDER. WIND GUSTS OF 20 TO  
25 MPH WILL BE POSSIBLE FOR BOTH SITES BUT SHOULD DECREASE STEADILY  
BEFORE OR SHORTLY AFTER SUNSET. FX  
 

 
   
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
 
 
SPOKANE 68 41 74 44 73 36 / 0 0 0 0 0 0  
COEUR D'ALENE 67 38 72 43 69 34 / 0 0 0 0 10 10  
PULLMAN 67 38 70 40 71 35 / 0 0 0 0 0 0  
LEWISTON 73 41 77 46 77 42 / 0 0 0 0 0 0  
COLVILLE 74 39 79 41 74 34 / 0 0 0 0 10 10  
SANDPOINT 68 38 72 42 62 33 / 0 0 0 0 30 20  
KELLOGG 63 40 68 44 64 34 / 0 0 0 0 30 20  
MOSES LAKE 76 39 80 43 82 41 / 0 0 0 0 0 0  
WENATCHEE 75 47 80 50 80 46 / 0 0 0 0 0 0  
OMAK 77 44 81 47 80 42 / 0 0 0 0 0 0  
 

 
   
OTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
 
 
ID...NONE.  
WA...NONE.  
 

 
 

 
 
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