675
FXUS66 KOTX 172249
AFDOTX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPOKANE WA
349 PM PDT WED AUG 17 2022
SYNOPSIS
TEMPERATURES TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY WILL CLIMB WELL INTO THE 90S
AND TRIPLE DIGITS. THE FORECAST FOR THE WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT
WEEK SHOULD BE A FEW DEGREES COOLER WITH AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES IN
THE 90S. SPOTTY SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE
THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY AND AGAIN ON MONDAY, BUT MOST OF THE
INLAND NORTHWEST WILL REMAIN DRY FOR AT LEAST THE NEXT SEVEN DAYS.
DISCUSSION
...EXCESSIVE HEAT WARNINGS AND HEAT ADVISORIES ARE IN EFFECT
THROUGH FRIDAY EVENING FOR CENTRAL AND EASTERN WASHINGTON AND
PARTS OF THE IDAHO PANHANDLE...
TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY: UPPER LEVEL RIDGING PARKED OVER THE
PACIFIC NORTHWEST HAS BROUGHT VERY DRY AND WARM CONDITIONS TO THE
REGION. READINGS THIS AFTERNOON IN THE MID 90S TO LOW 100S ARE
CURRENTLY RUNNING ABOUT 3 TO 9 DEGREES WARMER THAN THIS TIME
YESTERDAY. HOT TEMPERATURES CONTINUE THURSDAY AS THE RIDGE PEAKS
OVER THE INLAND NORTHWEST. 850 MB TEMPERATURES WARMING TO 28 TO 29C
WILL RESULT IN HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE UPPER 90S TO LOW 100S. THESE
TEMPERATURES ARE ABOUT 10 TO 20 DEGREES ABOVE AVERAGE FOR THIS TIME
OF YEAR, CREATING A MODERATE RISK FOR HEAT RELATED ILLNESS TO THOSE
WITHOUT SUFFICIENT COOLING SOURCES. SOME LOCATIONS SUCH AS OMAK AND
WENATCHEE WILL SEE THEIR RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURES THREATENED
THURSDAY.
MEANWHILE, AS THE RIDGE PEAKS OVER THE REGION, A DEEP
SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL ALLOW FOR MID TO UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE FROM THE
SOUTHWESTERN US MONSOON TO CREEP INTO THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST
BEGINNING THURSDAY MORNING. THIS WILL FIRST ARRIVE IN THE FORM OF
INCREASING CLOUD COVERAGE THURSDAY AFTERNOON. CLOUDS LOOK TO ARRIVE
LATE ENOUGH IN THE DAY TO NOT AFFECT THURSDAY'S HIGH TEMPERATURES,
BUT WILL KEEP THURSDAY NIGHT'S LOW TEMPERATURES QUITE WARM.
OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE UPPER 60S AND 70S WILL PROVIDE LITTLE RELIEF
FROM THURSDAY'S HEAT FOR HOMES WITHOUT AIR CONDITIONING. FRIDAY
WILL COOL BY A COUPLE DEGREES AS THE RIDGE EXITS, BUT CONTINUED
CLOUD COVER WILL RESULT IN A TRICKY HIGH TEMPERATURE FORECAST,
WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR COOLER TEMPERATURES THAN CURRENTLY
FORECASTED.
AS THE RIDGE BEGINS TO TREK EASTWARD, A SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL MOVE
TOWARD THE REGION. THIS ALONG WITH THE INCREASING MID LEVEL MOISTURE
AND INSTABILITY, INTRODUCES A THREAT FOR THUNDERSTORMS THURSDAY AND
AGAIN ON FRIDAY. A LACK OF LIFT THURSDAY KEEPS CONFIDENCE FOR
STORMS ON THURSDAY LOW, WITH THE GREATEST POTENTIAL MAINLY ACROSS
THE HIGHER TERRAIN IN THE CASCADES. FRIDAY WILL BE A MORE FAVORABLE
DAY FOR STORM DEVELOPMENT AS THE TROUGH MOVES ONSHORE. A VERY DRY
BOUNDARY LAYER BOTH DAYS DOES INCREASE OUR CONCERNS FOR FIRE
STARTS FROM DRY LIGHTNING ACROSS THESE AREAS. INCREASING WINDS
LATE FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING ACROSS THE CASCADE GAPS INTO THE
WATERVILLE PLATEAU AND OKANOGAN VALLEY WITH THIS TROUGH WILL ALSO
FURTHER INCREASE OUR FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS. VMT
SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY: HIGH AMOUNT OF UNCERTAINTY IN THIS PART OF
THE FORECAST IN THE WAKE OF THE EXPECTED BREAKDOWN AND/OR DISPLACEMENT
OF THE RIDGE THAT HAD AN AXIS CENTERED OVER WASHINGTON EARLIER IN THE
WEEK AND REPLACEMENT WITH A CLUTTERED UPPER LEVEL TROF OF SORTS INTO
THE EARLY PART OF THE NEXT WORKWEEK. THAT CLUTTERED UPPER LEVEL TROF
MAY BE REPLACED WITH YET ANOTHER POSITIVELY TILTED UPPER LEVEL RIDGE
MOVING IN BY THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. THE END RESULT IS AT LEAST
SOME CONTINUED COOLING FROM THE PEAK OF THE HIGH TEMPS IN THE LATER
PART OF THIS WORKWEEK THAT MAY SHOW ANOTHER WARMUP BY THE MIDDLE OF
NEXT WEEK. IN ADDITION THERE IS SOME POTENTIAL FOR DISTURBANCES TO
RUN UP FROM THE SOUTH/SOUTHWEST AT TIMES THAT COULD ALLOW FOR SOME
THUNDERSTORMS. AT THIS TIME ALMOST EACH AFTERNOON AND EVENING THERE
IS SOME MINOR MENTION OF THUNDER ALTHOUGH MONDAY SEEMS TO LOOK MORE
IMPRESSIVE AS SOME DETERMINISTIC MODELS SUGGEST A NEGATIVELY TILTED
TROF RUNS UP FROM SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST AS A THUNDERSTORM TRIGGER.
/PELATTI
AVIATION
00Z TAFS: VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PREVAIL FOR THE NEXT 24
HOURS AS STRONG HIGH PRESSURE LINGERS OVER AREA. AN EXCEPTION
WILL BE SOME SMOKE AND HAZE FROM LOCAL AND REGIONAL FIRES. WINDS
WILL GENERALLY BE LIGHT AND DIURNALLY DRIVEN THROUGH THURSDAY.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
SPOKANE 64 99 69 97 65 94 / 0 0 0 0 10 20
COEUR D'ALENE 62 97 66 95 63 93 / 0 0 10 0 10 10
PULLMAN 60 97 63 93 60 90 / 0 0 0 10 10 10
LEWISTON 69 103 73 100 70 98 / 0 0 0 10 10 10
COLVILLE 56 99 60 98 58 95 / 0 0 0 0 10 10
SANDPOINT 59 94 61 94 60 91 / 0 0 0 0 20 10
KELLOGG 67 94 69 93 67 91 / 0 0 10 0 20 10
MOSES LAKE 65 104 69 100 65 96 / 0 0 0 10 10 10
WENATCHEE 73 102 76 98 70 96 / 0 0 0 10 10 10
OMAK 67 103 71 100 68 99 / 0 0 0 10 10 10
OTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
ID...HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 11 PM PDT FRIDAY FOR COEUR D'ALENE AREA-
IDAHO PALOUSE-LEWIS AND SOUTHERN NEZ PERCE COUNTIES-
LEWISTON AREA-NORTHERN PANHANDLE.
WA...EXCESSIVE HEAT WARNING UNTIL 11 PM PDT FRIDAY FOR CENTRAL CHELAN
COUNTY-MOSES LAKE AREA-OKANOGAN VALLEY-UPPER COLUMBIA BASIN-
WATERVILLE PLATEAU-WENATCHEE AREA.
HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 11 PM PDT FRIDAY FOR LOWER GARFIELD AND
ASOTIN COUNTIES-NORTHEAST BLUE MOUNTAINS-NORTHEAST
MOUNTAINS-OKANOGAN HIGHLANDS-SPOKANE AREA-WASHINGTON
PALOUSE-WESTERN CHELAN COUNTY-WESTERN OKANOGAN COUNTY.
RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 10 PM PDT THURSDAY FOR EAST WASHINGTON
CENTRAL CASCADES (ZONE 696).
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