773
FXUS66 KOTX 170704
AFDOTX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPOKANE WA
1204 AM PDT FRI JUL 17 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- A MIX OF WET AND DRY THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH FRIDAY WILL BRING
LIGHTNING, HAIL, AND STRONG OUTFLOW WINDS.
- BREEZY, DRY CONDITIONS AROUND THE LEE OF THE CASCADES FRIDAY
AND BREEZY AND DRY CONDITIONS ACROSS THE REGION SATURDAY.
- DRY CONDITIONS THIS WEEKEND, WITH TEMPERATURES REMAINING WARM
IN THE UPPER 80S AND 90S.
SYNOPSIS
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED UNTIL LATE FRIDAY
MORNING IN THE INLAND NORTHWEST. DRY CONDITIONS RESUME THIS
WEEKEND.
DISCUSSION
FRIDAY: ELEVATED TO CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS FOR PORTIONS OF THE INLAND NORTHWEST. ANOTHER
ROUND OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE DEVELOPING ON RADAR AND
SATELLITE WITH A DEEPENING CU FIELD IN EASTERN WASHINTON AND NORTH
IDAHO ALREADY. THERE IS AMPLE INSTABILITY LEFTOVER FROM TODAY (1400
J/KG ON THE 0Z KOTX SOUNDING) TO TAP INTO STILL WITH STEEP LAPSE
RATES ALOFT. SYNOPTIC ASCENT IS MAXIMED TOWARDS THE CASCADES WITH
THE UPPER LOW JUST OFFSHORE THE WASHINGTON BORDER, BUT A WEAK VORT
MAX WILL DEVELOP OFF THE FOOTHILLS OF THE BLUE MOUNTAINS IN THE NEXT
COUPLE OF HOURS SUPPORTING ADDITIONAL DEVELOPMENT FURTHER EAST IN
EASTERN WASHINGTON. RED FLAG WARNINGS CONTINUE FOR MUCH OF THE
REGION OUTSIDE OF THE COLUMBIA BASIN AND CHELAN COUNTY FOR ABUNDANT
LIGHTNING UNTIL 7-11 AM THIS MORNING. CANNOT RULE OUT SMALL HAIL UP
TO PENNY SIZE AND GUSTY OUTFLOW WINDS UP TO 40 MPH WITH THESE
STORMS. STORM COVERAGE WILL DECREASE IN THE LATE MORNING AS THEY
MOSTLY MIGRATE INTO FAR SOUTHEASTERN BC. EXPECTING ONE MORE ROUND OF
MORE ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FRIDAY AFTERNOON (10-25%
CHANCE FOR THE CENTRAL PANHANDLE MOUNTAINS) BUT THE COVERAGE OF
STORMS IS TOO LOW TO WARRANT ANOTHER LIGHTNING DRIVEN RED FLAG
WARNING. FURTHER WEST THIS AFTERNOON, A DRY COLD FRONT PASSAGE WILL
OCCUR AND BREEZY SOUTHERLY/SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS WILL PICK UP FOR THE
OKANOGAN VALLEY, METHOW VALLEY, AND WATERVILLE PLATEAU, LEADING TO
CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS. THE WATERVILLE PLATEAU RED FLAG
WARNING WILL GO A COUPLE HOURS LONGER UNTIL 11 PM AS THE EVENING GAP
WINDS BRING A WIND SHIFT TO THE WEST.
SATURDAY: ADDITIONAL ELEVATED TO LOCALLY CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED SATURDAY AS THE INLAND NORTHWEST SITS
SQUARELY IN THE DRY SLOT OF THE UPPER LEVEL LOW WITH A TIGHTENING
500 MB HEIGHT GRADIENT. WINDS WILL BE WEST-SOUTHWEST 12-15 MPH WITH
GUSTS AROUND 15-20 MPH WITH RELATIVE HUMIDITY AROUND 14-22 PERCENT.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE COOLER BUT STILL ABOVE AVERAGE IN THE UPPER 80S
TO MID 90S WITH PLENTIFUL SUN.
SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY: ENSEMBLES ARE IN AGREEMENT OF WELL ABOVE
NORMAL TEMPERATURES CONTINUING NEXT WEEK AS THE SOUTHWEST REGAINS
STRENGTH AND RETROGRADES TOWARDS THE 4 CORNERS REGION BY MONDAY.
CONDITIONS WILL BE FAIRLY DRY WITH HIGHS IN THE 90S AND 100S.
/DB
AVIATION
06Z TAFS: THERE IS A 30-40% CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS TO IMPACT KGEG-KSFF-KCOE THROUGH 14Z AS ELEVATED
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TAKE ADVANTAGE OF ELEVATED
INSTABILITY. OTHER TAF SITES HAVE LESS THAN A 30% CHANCE, SO
HAVE KEPT A PROB30/TEMPO OUT FOR NOW. CONFIDENCE IS LOW FOR
GUSTY OUTFLOWS TONIGHT BUT MAY REACH 30 MPH. VFR CONDITONS WILL
PREVAIL WITH FAIRLY LIGHT WINDS OUTSIDE OF THE CASCADE GAPS
FRIDAY EVENING IN CENTRAL WA.
FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND/OR ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: HIGH CONFIDENCE
IN VFR CONDITIONS. LOW CONFIDENCE FOR GUSTY OUTFLOW WINDS.
-----------------------
CONFIDENCE DESCRIPTORS:
LOW - LESS THAN A 30 PERCENT CHANCE
MODERATE - 30 TO 70 PERCENT CHANCE
HIGH - GREATER THAN A 70 PERCENT CHANCE
FOR ADDITIONAL PROBABILISTIC INFORMATION FOR NWS SPOKANE AIRPORTS,
PLEASE REFER TO THE AVIATION DASHBOARD ON OUR WEBPAGE:
HTTPS:/WWW.WEATHER.GOV/OTX/AVNDASHBOARD
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
SPOKANE 92 60 90 57 91 58 / 10 0 0 0 0 0
COEUR D'ALENE 91 61 89 58 90 60 / 20 10 0 0 0 0
PULLMAN 87 53 86 52 87 53 / 10 10 0 0 0 0
LEWISTON 95 65 95 63 96 64 / 10 20 0 0 0 0
COLVILLE 93 55 89 53 93 56 / 40 0 0 0 0 0
SANDPOINT 91 58 88 55 89 57 / 40 10 0 0 0 0
KELLOGG 89 59 86 56 86 57 / 30 10 0 0 0 0
MOSES LAKE 94 58 92 58 93 61 / 0 0 0 0 0 0
WENATCHEE 93 64 91 64 94 68 / 0 0 0 0 0 0
OMAK 96 62 93 62 95 65 / 30 0 0 0 0 0
OTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
WA...RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 11 AM PDT THIS MORNING FOR SELKIRK
MOUNTAINS OF NORTHEAST WASHINGTON (ZONE 700).
RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 5 AM PDT EARLY THIS MORNING FOR LOWER
PALOUSE -SNAKE RIVER (ZONE 709).
RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 7 AM PDT THIS MORNING FOR COLVILLE
RESERVATION (ZONE 702)-EAST PORTION OF NORTH CASCADES
NATIONAL PARK/LAKE CHELAN NATIONAL RECREATION AREA (ZONE
697)-EAST WASHINGTON NORTH CASCADES (ZONE 698)-EASTERN
COLUMBIA BASIN -PALOUSE -SPOKANE AREA (ZONE 708)-
FOOTHILLS OF NORTHEAST WASHINGTON (ZONE 701)-METHOW
VALLEY (ZONE 704)-OKANOGAN HIGHLANDS AND KETTLE MOUNTAINS
(ZONE 699)-OKANOGAN VALLEY (ZONE 703)-WATERVILLE PLATEAU
(ZONE 706).
RED FLAG WARNING FROM NOON TODAY TO 11 PM PDT THIS EVENING FOR
WATERVILLE PLATEAU (ZONE 706).
RED FLAG WARNING FROM NOON TODAY TO 9 PM PDT THIS EVENING FOR
METHOW VALLEY (ZONE 704)-OKANOGAN VALLEY (ZONE 703).
ID...AIR QUALITY ALERT UNTIL 2 PM PDT SUNDAY FOR NORTHERN PANHANDLE.
RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 11 AM PDT THIS MORNING FOR NORTHERN AND
CENTRAL IDAHO PANHANDLE (ZONE 101).
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.
Main Text Page