374
FXUS66 KOTX 271200
AFDOTX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPOKANE WA
400 AM PST THU NOV 27 2025
KEY MESSAGES
- SNOW IMPACTING TRAVEL IN THE EAST SLOPES OF CASCADES AND
ALONG HWY 20 TONIGHT THROUGH THANKSGIVING THEN LOOKOUT PASS
THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY MORNING.
- COLDER TEMPERATURES OVER WEEKEND INTO NEXT WEEK WITH
OCCASIONAL CHANCES FOR SNOW.
SYNOPSIS
PRECIPITATION MOVES IN TODAY BECOMING MORE WIDESPREAD THIS
AFTERNOON. A MIX OF RAIN AND SNOW IS EXPECTED FOR THE NORTHERN
MOUNTAIN VALLEYS AND ADDITIONAL LIGHT SNOW OVER MOUNTAIN PASSES
RESULTING IN MINOR IMPACTS TO TRAVEL. TEMPERATURES COOL TO BELOW
NORMAL OVER THE WEEKEND. A COUPLE WEATHER SYSTEM ONE AROUND
SATURDAY AND ANOTHER EARLY NEXT WEEK WILL BRING THE POTENTIAL
FOR ADDITIONAL LIGHT SNOW.
DISCUSSION
TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY: SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS A TIGHTLY WOUND LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM SPINNING IN THE EASTERN PACIFIC AT ROUGHLY 46N 133W
NEAR MIDNIGHT. LIGHT PRECIPITAITON WILL FORM ALONG A WARM FRONT THIS
MORNING AND PUSH INTO THE NORTHERN MOUNTAINS BY NOON TODAY. A LITTLE
BIT OF SNOW MAY FALL IN THE VALLEYS OF THE EAST SLOPES OF THE
CASCADES AND COLDER POCKETS OF THE NORTHERN MOUNTAIN VALLEYS, BUT
LITTLE IF ANY ACCUMULATIONS IS EXPECTED WITH HOW LIGHT THIS
PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED TO BE. THE TRAILING COLD FRONT WILL THEN
PUSH ACROSS THE INLAND NORTHWEST AND OCCLUDE WITH THE WARM FRONT IN
THE AFTERNOON. PRECIPITATION WILL INCREASE ACROSS THE REGION AS THIS
HAPPENS. SNOW LEVELS WILL GENERALLY BE ABOVE VALLEYS FLOORS BY THIS
TIME EXCEPT POSSIBLY UP INTO THE METHOW VALLEY WHERE COLDER AIR WILL
HAVE A HARDER TIME SCRUBBING OUT. SNOW WILL MAINLY IMPACT THE
HIGHER MOUNTAIN PASSES INCLUDING WASHINGTON PASS AND SHERMAN
PASS FOR THE AFTERNOON WITH LIGHT ACCUMULATIONS IN THE RANGE OF
3 TO 5 INCHES EXPECTED.
THE UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL PUSH ACROSS TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY MORNING. IT
WILL FILL AS IT DOES SO, BUT WILL BRING ADDED DYNAMICS THAT WILL
ENHANCE PRECIPITATION ACROSS THE SOUTHERN WASHINGTON CASCADES
TO THE SOUTHERN TO CENTRAL IDAHO PANHANDLE. IT WILL BE THIS
EVENING TO OVERNIGHT PERIOD WHERE PRECIPITATION WILL TRANSITION
OVER TO SNOW FOR STEVENS PASS AND LOOKOUT PASS. BOTH WILL SEE
AROUND 2 TO 4 INCHES OF SNOW. ACCUMULATIONS WILL BE LIGHT AND
SNOW WILL BE WET AND SLICK. SNOW WILL BE WINDING DOWN OVER THE
CASCADES BY EARLY FRIDAY. SNOW FOR LOOKOUT PASS WILL BE
OCCURRING THROUGH THE MORNING FRIDAY, AND I HAVE CONCERNS THAT
TRAVEL OVER THIS PASS WILL BE DIFFICULT FOR HOLIDAY TRAVELERS
AFTER THE THANKSGIVING HOLIDAY. AS SUCH, I WENT AHEAD AND ISSUED
AN WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY JUST FOR LOOKOUT PASS THAT IS IN
EFFECT FOR 10PM THURSDAY THROUGH 1PM FRIDAY. THE REST OF I-90
WILL SEE LITTLE OR NO ACCUMULATING SNOW WITH THIS NEXT STORM
SYSTEM.
FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY: THE LONGWAVE UPPER LEVEL PRESSURE
PATTERN WILL BE RIDGING OVER THE EASTERN PACIFIC AND TROUGHING OVER
THE ROCKIES TO THE CENTRAL U.S. THIS WILL PLACE THE INLAND NORTHWEST
UNDER A DRIER AND COLDER NORTHERLY FLOW PATTERN. THIS ISN'T TO SAY
THAT IT WILL BE COMPLETELY DRY AS MODEL GUIDANCE DOES SHOW
DISTURBANCES THAT DROP DOWN IN THE COLDER FLOW PATTERN. ONE LOOKS TO
BE SATURDAY INTO SATURDAY NIGHT. THERE ISN'T A LOT OF MOISTURE WITH
THIS SHORTWAVE AND MAY JUST BRING SOME CLOUD COVER ACROSS THE
REGION. A BETTER CHANCE FOR WINTRY PRECIPITATION WILL BE EARLY NEXT
WEEK. UNCERTAINTY REMAINS HIGH WITH POTENTIAL SNOW
ACCUMULATIONS NEXT WEEK AS THERE IS A LOT OF VARIABILITY WITH
PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS. MAIN POTENTIAL FOR WINTER TRAVEL WILL BE
MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY, AND THE IDAHO PANHANDLE WILL BE A
FAVORED AREA FOR PRECIPITATION. IMPACTS LOOKS MINOR AT THIS
POINT, BUT SOMETHING TO WATCH OUT FOR IF THE STRONGER MODEL
SOLUTIONS LOOK TO VERIFY. WEDNESDAY LOOKS DRY BEFORE ADDITIONAL
MOISTURE THAT MAY BRING LIGHT SNOW AT LEAST IN THE MOUNTAINS FOR
THURSDAY. TEMPERATURES COOL TO BELOW NORMAL OVER THE WEEKEND
AND THEN SEE A SLIGHT INCREASE TO AROUND NORMAL FOR LATE
NOVEMBER EARLY NEXT WEEK. /SVH
AVIATION
12Z TAFS: THE BOUNDARY LAYER REMAINS MOIST, BUT A PERSISTENT
NORTHEAST WIND WILL LIMIT HOW LOW THE STRATUS LAYER WILL LOWER,
ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE COLUMBIA BASIN. IFR TO MVFR CEILINGS WILL
BE COMMON REGIONWIDE. CHANCES FOR STEADY RAIN WILL INCREASE AS
THE TRAILING COLD FRONT OCCLUDES WITH THE WARM FRONT THROUGH THE
DAY THURSDAY. THIS WILL KEEP CEILINGS DOWN AND SURFACE
VISIBILITY BETWEEN 2-6 MILES WITH THE PRECIPITATION AND IFR
CONDITIONS THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING ON THANKSGIVING.
.FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND/OR ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: THERE IS HIGH
CONFIDENCE FOR WIDESPREAD IFR/MVFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE PERIOD.
PRECIPITAITON WILL BRING A 20-40% CHANCE FOR VISIBILITY
LOWERING TO BELOW 3SM REGIONWIDE AND A 30-60% CHANCE FOR
CEILINGS BELOW 1,000 FEET AGL.
-----------------------
CONFIDENCE DESCRIPTORS:
LOW - LESS THAN A 30 PERCENT CHANCE
MODERATE - 30 TO 70 PERCENT CHANCE
HIGH - GREATER THAN A 70 PERCENT CHANCE
FOR ADDITIONAL PROBABILISTIC INFORMATION FOR NWS SPOKANE
AIRPORTS,PLEASE REFER TO THE AVIATION DASHBOARD ON OUR
WEBPAGE: HTTPS:/WWW.WEATHER.GOV/OTX/AVNDASHBOARD
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
SPOKANE 41 35 41 25 36 21 / 90 90 40 0 10 10
COEUR D'ALENE 41 34 39 24 35 21 / 90 90 60 10 10 10
PULLMAN 44 36 41 27 38 26 / 80 100 90 20 10 20
LEWISTON 49 41 45 32 41 31 / 50 90 90 10 10 20
COLVILLE 39 27 42 21 37 17 / 100 90 20 10 10 0
SANDPOINT 39 31 38 21 32 18 / 100 100 70 10 10 10
KELLOGG 44 35 39 23 35 21 / 90 100 90 20 10 20
MOSES LAKE 43 35 46 28 40 23 / 90 80 20 0 10 10
WENATCHEE 41 36 44 32 38 28 / 90 80 20 0 10 10
OMAK 39 32 41 27 37 23 / 90 60 0 0 10 0
OTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
WA...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IN EFFECT FOR 10 PM PST THURSDAY
THORUGH 1 PM PST FRIDAY FOR LOOKOUT PASS IN THE CENTRAL
PANHANDLE MOUNTAINS.
ID...NONE.
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