261
FXUS66 KOTX 161807
AFDOTX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPOKANE WA
1107 AM PDT FRI APR 16 2021
SYNOPSIS
BREEZY NORTHEAST WINDS WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE UPPER COLUMBIA
BASIN, WEST PLAINS, AND MOSES LAKE AREA THROUGH FRIDAY. A WARM
AND DRY WEEKEND IS IN STORE FOR THE INLAND NORTHWEST. HIGH
TEMPERATURES ON SUNDAY WILL BE WELL INTO THE 70S WITH LOW TO MID
80S EXPECTED IN CENTRAL WASHINGTON. A COLD FRONT LATE SUNDAY,
MONDAY EXPECTED TO BRING ANOTHER PUSH OF STRONG NORTHERLY WINDS
AND COOLER TEMPS.
DISCUSSION
...DRY AND WINDY CONDITIONS EXPECTED SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND MONDAY
MORNING...
TODAY AND SATURDAY: A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL LEAD TO
TEMPERATURES WILL STEADILY CLIMB THROUGH SATURDAY WITH HIGHS TO 10
TO 15 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR. THE BREEZY
WINDS WILL CALM AS THE PRESSURE GRADIENT LOOSENS ACROSS THE REGION
BUT STILL HAVE PERIODS OF BREEZY WINDS MAINLY DURING THE
AFTERNOON. WINDS SPEEDS EXPECTED TO BE SUSTAINED IN THE TEENS WITH
GUSTS INTO THE LOW 20S MPH. WHILE THE WINDS MIGHT NOT SEEM VERY
STRONG, THE WINDS AND DRY SPELL ACROSS THE REGION COULD LEAD TO
QUICK FIRE SPREAD. ENSEMBLES HAVE INCREASED THE HIGHS A DEGREE OR
TWO. HIGHS WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE UPPER 60S AND MID 70S.
OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL BE IN THE UPPER 30S TO MID 40S. /JDC
SUNDAY AND MONDAY: A TROUGH WILL SLIDE SOUTH THROUGH THE IDAHO
PANHANDLE AND TRAVEL SOUTH AND EAST ALONG THE NORTHERN ROCKIES
SUNDAY. WHILE WASHINGTON WAS UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF HIGH PRESSURE,
THE RIDGE WILL RELOCATE SOUTHWEST OFF-SHORE SUNDAY WITH THE
APPROACHING NORTHERLY COLD FRONT. WINDS ACROSS THE COLUMBIA BASIN
AND NORTHERN PANHANDLE WILL SEE A DRASTIC SHIFT IN DIRECTION FROM
THE SOUTHWEST TO THE NORTHEAST WITH THE FRONTAL PASSAGE SUNDAY
AFTERNOON.
THIS WIND SHIFT/FRONTAL PASSAGE LOOKS LIKE IT HAS BEEN TRENDING A
BIT EARLIER PER RECENT MODEL RUNS. SUNDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING WILL
SEE THE WIND SHIFT AND PEAK WIND SPEEDS FROM NORTHERN IDAHO
THROUGH SOUTH-CENTRAL COLUMBIA BASIN (SANDPOINT - COEUR D'ALENE -
MOSES LAKE). ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE IS HINTING AT THE POTENTIAL FOR
SUNDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING CONVECTION WITH THE FRONTAL PASSAGE.
HAVE KEPT A MENTION OF SLIGHT CHANCE IN THE FORECAST FOR FAR
NORTHERN ID WITH THE THOUGHT OF ISOLATED LIGHTNING CHANCES, WHICH
WILL BE OF CONCERN FOR FIRE DANGER.
*THE THREAT FOR BLOWING DUST WILL ONCE AGAIN BE OF CONCERN SINCE
WE HAVEN'T SEEN ANY APPRECIABLE PRECIPITATION, OR NONE AT ALL
REALLY IN THE LAST FEW WEEKS.
*ANOTHER CONCERN WILL BE ELEVATED FIRE DANGER WITH RECENT WARM
TEMPERATURES, LOW HUMIDITY AND GUSTY WINDS.
*THIS FRONT DOES NOT LOOK TO POSE MUCH THREAT OF PRECIPITATION
OUTSIDE OF A FEW HUNDREDTHS ALONG THE IDAHO/MONTANA BORDER OF THE
ROCKIES.
*TEMPERATURES WILL ALSO SEE A 10-14 DEGREE COOL-DOWN BY MONDAY,
BRINGING VALUES CLOSER TO SEASONAL NORMAL.
TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY: THE REST OF THE WEEK THE WEATHER WILL BE
PRETTY UNEVENTFUL AS TEMPERATURES GRADUALLY CLIMB BACK ABOVE
SEASONAL NORMAL THROUGH THE WEEK. FROM THE UPPER 50S/LOW 60S
TUESDAY TO THE UPPER 60S/LOW 70S BY FRIDAY. ENSEMBLE MODEL
SOLUTIONS ARE PRETTY OUT OF LINE WITH EACH OTHER REGARDING THE
NEXT SHORTWAVE AND WHETHER OR NOT IT WILL PROVIDE ANY
PRECIPITATION TO THE REGION, BUT THERE IS A SMALL WINDOW OF
OPPORTUNITY WITH SOME GUIDANCE SUGGESTING VERY LIGHT PRECIPITATION
(LESS THAN A QUARTER OF AN INCH) MAY FALL SOMETIME BETWEEN
WEDNESDAY AND FRIDAY. /DEWEY
AVIATION
18Z TAFS: VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED ACROSS ALL TAF SITES THROUGH 18Z
SATURDAY. COMPARED TO YESTERDAY, WINDS WILL BE CONSIDERABLY WEAKER
AT MOST OF THE TAF SITES. THE MAIN WINDS TODAY WILL LARGELY IMPACT
PUW AND MWH DUE TO THE PRESENCE OF A BAND OF MODERATE EASTERLY WINDS
IN THIS AREA AND POINTS SOUTH TO THE OR BORDER. WIND GUSTS OF 20 TO
25 MPH WILL BE POSSIBLE FOR BOTH SITES BUT SHOULD DECREASE STEADILY
BEFORE OR SHORTLY AFTER SUNSET. FX
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
SPOKANE 68 41 74 44 73 36 / 0 0 0 0 0 0
COEUR D'ALENE 67 38 72 43 69 34 / 0 0 0 0 10 10
PULLMAN 67 38 70 40 71 35 / 0 0 0 0 0 0
LEWISTON 73 41 77 46 77 42 / 0 0 0 0 0 0
COLVILLE 74 39 79 41 74 34 / 0 0 0 0 10 10
SANDPOINT 68 38 72 42 62 33 / 0 0 0 0 30 20
KELLOGG 63 40 68 44 64 34 / 0 0 0 0 30 20
MOSES LAKE 76 39 80 43 82 41 / 0 0 0 0 0 0
WENATCHEE 75 47 80 50 80 46 / 0 0 0 0 0 0
OMAK 77 44 81 47 80 42 / 0 0 0 0 0 0
OTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
ID...NONE.
WA...NONE.
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