276
FXUS66 KOTX 201205
AFDOTX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPOKANE WA
405 AM PST FRI FEB 20 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- LOW IMPACT WEATHER CONDITIONS FRIDAY
- LIGHT SNOW RETURNS TO THE CASCADES SATURDAY.
- WETTER AND WARMER SYSTEMS ARRIVING SUNDAY INTO NEXT WEEK WITH
SNOW IN THE MOUNTAINS AND MAINLY RAIN FOR THE LOWLANDS.
- WINTER TRAVEL CONDITIONS EXPECTED OVER THE MOUNTAIN PASSES
NEXT WEEK.
SYNOPSIS
VERY LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE IN THE IDAHO PANHANDLE AND
SOUTHEASTERN WASHINGTON FRIDAY WITH MINIMAL ACCUMULATIONS.
TEMPERATURES MODERATE OVER THE WEEKEND WITH ADDITIONAL CHANCES
FOR MOUNTAIN SNOW AND MIX OF RAIN AND SNOW IN THE LOWLANDS.
TRAVEL OVER THE CASCADES COULD BE CHALLENGING AT TIMES NEXT
WEEK WITH PERIODS OF MODERATE TO HEAVY SNOW.
DISCUSSION
FRIDAY: SNOW SHOWERS WILL LINGER OVER THE LOWER IDAHO PANHANDLE
AND SOUTHEASTERN WA IN THE MORNING WITH SNOW SHOWER INTENSITY
AND COVERAGE DECREASING. STABLE WEATHER CONDITIONS WILL RETURN
TO CENTRAL WA COURTESY OF SHORTWAVE RIDGING MOVING INLAND AHEAD
OF ANOTHER DEEP LOW SETTLING OFF THE WA COAST. IT WILL BE A COLD
START FOR COMMUNITIES IN NORTH-CENTRAL WA THAT ARE SHELTERED
FROM THE NORTHERLY WINDS BLEEDING THROUGH THE OKANOGAN VALLEY.
THE MODIFIED ARCTIC AIR SPILLING IN HAS RESULTED IN SINGLE DIGIT
DEWPOINTS AND CLEARING SKIES. SEVERAL MOUNTAIN OBSERVATIONS ARE
ALREADY REPORTING TEMPERATURES IN THE SINGLE DIGITS. THE BRISK
NORTHERLY WINDS AT OROVILLE, OMAK, AND WATERVILLE WILL SLOWLY
SUBSIDE THROUGH MIDDAY THOUGH MORNING WIND CHILLS WILL
UNDOUBTEDLY BE IMPACTFUL WITH READINGS BETWEEN 0-10F. AS THE
SYSTEM DELIVERING SNOW TONIGHT SHIFTS EAST, THE DRIER AIR WILL
BE PULLED ACROSS EASTERN WA AND NORTH IDAHO. SATURDAY MORNING
HAS POTENTIAL TO BE QUITE COLD AGAIN FOR THE INLAND NW. FRESH
SNOW, LOW DEWPOINTS, AND CLEAR SKIES WILL PROMOTE STRONG
RADIATIONAL COOLING. THE CAVEAT WILL BE A LIGHT EASTERLY WIND
SETTING UP THROUGH THE NIGHT AND DEVELOPING CLOUDS WHICH LEADS
TO SOME UNCERTAINTY EXACTLY HOW COLD MORNING LOWS WILL DIP
SATURDAY MORNING.
SATURDAY-SUNDAY: THE SHORTWAVE RIDGE AXIS WILL SLIDE EAST INTO
WESTERN MONTANA AS A DEEP LOW CHURNS OFF THE WA COAST AND ONE OF
THE EMBEDDED SHORTWAVES PIVOTS EAST OF 130W. THIS WILL DRAW AN
AXIS OF MOISTURE NORTHWARD INTO WESTERN WA WITH A WARM FRONT
BRUSHING THE CASCADES. THE ANTECEDENT AIR MASS WILL BE COLD
ENOUGH TO SUPPORT SNOW FOR THE CASCADES AND FOR SOME COMMUNITIES
EXTENDING INTO THE WESTERN BASIN. SNOW AMOUNTS RANGE FROM A FEW
TENTHS IN THE BASIN TO 2-3 INCHES IN THE MOUNTAINS. GIVEN THE
PLACEMENT OF LOW PRESSURE OFF THE COAST, THE LOW-LEVEL FLOW
PATTERN OVER THE INW WILL BE FROM THE EAST/SOUTHEAST WHICH IS
FAVORABLE FOR COLD AIR DAMMING INTO THE E SLOPES. NORTH IDAHO
AND MAJORITY OF E WA WILL EXPERIENCE ANOTHER DRY DAY WITH
MODERATING TEMPERATURES.
HEADING INTO SUNDAY, THE OFFSHORE LOW CONTINUES TO WOBBLE TOWARD
THE COAST WITH A MORE PRONOUNCED SHORTWAVE EJECTING INLAND AND
INTO SOUTHWESTERN BC. LOW-LEVEL FLOW ACROSS E WA AND NORTH IDAHO
WILL BACK MORE SOUTHERLY INITIATING A WARMING TREND. 850MB
TEMPERATURES OVER SPOKANE WILL WARM FROM -2.5C SATURDAY
AFTERNOON TO +2C SUNDAY EVENING. THE FLOW INTO THE EAST SLOPES
OF THE CASCADES WILL MAINTAIN A SLIGHT SOUTHEASTERLY CONTINUING
TO KEEP COOLER AIR DAMMED INTO THE UPPER RIVER VALLEYS BUT
MODERATING CONDITIONS WILL BEGIN TO BE REALIZED ACROSS THE
WESTERN BASIN AND INTO THE NORTHERN VALLEYS. THIS WILL EQUATE TO
AREAS OF LIGHT RAIN AND MOUNTAIN SNOW FOR CENTRAL AND NORTHERN
WA. AS THE SHORTWAVE TRACKS EAST INTO SOUTHERN BC/ALBERTA
SUNDAY NIGHT, IT WILL DRAG A WEAK COLD FRONT THROUGH THE REGION
SPREADING PRECIPITATION CHANCES SOUTHWARD INTO E WA AND N ID.
MONDAY-TUESDAY: THERE IS INCREASING CONFIDENCE FOR AN ORGANIZED
FRONTAL SYSTEM TO IMPACT THE PACNW DURING THIS PERIOD. DETAILS
ARE LIKELY TO CHANGE BUT GENERALLY SPEAKING, PERIODS OF LIGHT
TO MODERATE PRECIPITATION LOOK TO BE ON THE HORIZON. THERE WILL
BE ADDITIONAL WARMING MONDAY WITH THE ARRIVAL OF SUBTROPICAL
MOISTURE AND ASSOCIATED WARM FRONT. THIS WARMING WILL BE SHORT-
LIVED AS A STRONG COLD FRONT ARRIVES LATTER TUESDAY. AT THIS
TIME, NBM IS CARRYING SNOW LEVELS ACROSS THE NORTHERN MOUNTAINS
BETWEEN 3500-4500 FEET AND NEAR 5500 FEET OVER SOUTHEASTERN WA
AND THE LOWER IDAHO PANHANDLE. IF THESE LEVELS HOLD, THERE
COULD BE SIGNIFICANT SNOWS ON THE HIGHER PEAKS OF THE CASCADES,
KETTLES, AND SELKIRKS. I WOULD NOT HOLD MY BREATH ON THESE
DETAILS HOWEVER WHICH COME WITH LOW CONFIDENCE AND COULD CHANGE
BY AS MUCH AS 500-900 FEET GIVEN THE SPREAD INDICATED. RAIN IS
LIKELY FOR THE LOWLANDS. SNOW LEVELS WILL COME CRASHING DOWN
TUESDAY NIGHT WITH THE PASSAGE OF THE COLD FRONT BUT THIS
TYPICALLY COMES WITH LITTLE TO NO PRECIPITATION AWAY FROM
CASCADE CREST AND IDAHO PANHANDLE. SO WHAT IMPACTS COULD COME
FROM THIS SYSTEM? FIRST WOULD BE WINTER TRAVEL CONDITIONS AND
HEAVY SNOW OVER STEVENS AND SHERMAN PASS. NOT SURE IT WOULD BE
IMPACTFUL FOR THE ENTIRE EVENT BUT WITH THE INITIAL ARRIVAL OF
THE MOISTURE SEEMS PLAUSIBLE. LOWLANDS THAT PICKED UP
APPRECIABLE SNOW OVER THE LAST FEW DAYS COULD BECOME MESSY WITH
LIGHT TO MODERATE RAINS AND SNOWMELT. WE WILL NEED TO LOOK INTO
THIS CLOSER AS THE EVENT NEARS FOR LOCAL HYDROLOGY ISSUES.
LASTLY WOULD BE GUSTY WINDS. A STRONG LOW- LEVEL JET DEVELOPS
MONDAY INTO TUESDAY. THESE FEATURES TYPICALLY REMAIN ELEVATED OFF
THE SURFACE BUT I AM SEEING SOME PROBABILITIES FOR GUSTS > 30
MPH AROUND THE BLUE MOUNTAINS AND SNAKE RIVER. THESE
PROBABILITIES INCREASE AND EXPAND WHEN THE COLD FRONT PRESSES
THROUGH WITH RAPID COOLING TUESDAY NIGHT. CURRENT PROBABILITIES
FOR WIND GUSTS > 30 MPH ARE NEAR 30% ACROSS MUCH OF THE BASIN WHICH
IS RESPECTABLE FOR A FORECAST 140 HOURS OUT.
WEDNESDAY-FRIDAY: THE FORECAST INTO THE END OF NEXT WEEK IS
LOOKING PROMISING FOR ADDITIONAL SNOW IN THE CASCADES AND IDAHO
PANHANDLE WITH SOME DEGREE OF ZONAL FLOW AND MUCH OF THE PACNW
ON THE COOL SIDE OF THE JET. ONLY 29% OF THE 100 MEMBER
ENSEMBLES HAVE A SLIGHT, WARMER DEVIATION. PATTERN RECOGNITION
SUGGEST TWO THINGS. 1) WE NEED TO CLOSELY WATCH EXACTLY WHERE
THE WESTERLY JET SETS UP AND POTENTIAL WIND STORMS FOR THE
MOUNTAINS AND LOWLANDS. 2) PERSISTENT MODERATE TO HEAVY SNOW
FOR THE CASCADE CREST AND IDAHO PANHANDLE AND HOW THIS COULD
IMPACT TRAVEL. LASTLY AND GENERALLY ON A LOWER BUT NON-ZERO
PROBABILITY WOULD BE CHANCES FOR LOWLAND SNOW. /SB
AVIATION
12Z TAFS: SPOTTY LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE OVER
SOUTHEAST WA AND LOWER ID PANHANDLE THROUGH 16Z. THIS ACTIVITY
WILL BE VERY SHALLOW IN NATURE WITH TRACE AMOUNTS. DRIER AIR IS
WORKING INTO THE REGION FROM NORTH-CENTRAL WA. TAF SITES WILL
HAVE IMPROVING CEILINGS. A SHORTWAVE RIDGE WILL BUILD INTO THE
REGION SATURDAY. KLWS- KPUW WILL BE SLOWEST TO REALIZE THE DRIER
AIR. MODERATE CONFIDENCE FOR VFR CONDTIONS THROUGH THE PERIOD.
LOW STRATUS HAS AROUND A 50% CHANCE OF PRODUCING MVFR CEILINGS
STARTING LATE EVENING.
FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND/OR ALTERNATE SCENARIOS:
MODERATE TO HIGH CONFIDENCE IN VFR SKIES FROM OMAK TO MOSES LAKE
WORKING EASTWARD THROUGH THE MORNING AND EARLY AFTERNOON. EXACT
TIMING FOR REACHING PULLMAN AND LEWISTON COMES WITH LOWER
CONFIDENCE. CONFIDENCE FOR POST FRONTAL -SHSN IS LOW BUT
MODERATE TO HIGH CONFIDENCE THAT THESE WILL HAVE MINIMAL IMPACTS
IN REGARDS TO SNOW ACCUMULATIONS. MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN
MVFR/VFR CEILINGS FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY MORNING. /JDC
-----------------------
CONFIDENCE DESCRIPTORS:
LOW - LESS THAN A 30 PERCENT CHANCE
MODERATE - 30 TO 70 PERCENT CHANCE
HIGH - GREATER THAN A 70 PERCENT CHANCE
FOR ADDITIONAL PROBABILISTIC INFORMATION FOR NWS SPOKANE
AIRPORTS,PLEASE REFER TO THE AVIATION DASHBOARD ON OUR
WEBPAGE: HTTPS:/WWW.WEATHER.GOV/OTX/AVNDASHBOARD
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
SPOKANE 32 21 42 29 48 36 / 10 0 0 0 30 70
COEUR D'ALENE 32 19 42 27 46 34 / 10 0 0 0 20 70
PULLMAN 32 22 41 32 48 37 / 20 0 0 0 30 60
LEWISTON 39 25 46 33 53 39 / 20 0 0 0 10 40
COLVILLE 31 13 40 25 44 31 / 0 0 0 10 40 80
SANDPOINT 30 19 37 26 41 32 / 20 10 10 0 30 80
KELLOGG 30 21 41 28 47 36 / 30 10 0 0 30 70
MOSES LAKE 35 23 44 32 50 36 / 0 0 10 20 40 60
WENATCHEE 33 24 36 30 40 34 / 0 0 30 30 60 70
OMAK 30 18 38 32 43 34 / 0 0 10 20 60 70
OTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
WA...NONE.
ID...NONE.
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