463
FXUS66 KOTX 122249
AFDOTX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPOKANE WA
249 PM PST MON JAN 12 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- LIGHT PRECIPITATION OVER CASCADES AND NORTHERN MOUNTAINS.
- DRY AND STAGNANT PATTERN UNDER STRONG RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE
BY MID WEEK INTO THE WEEKEND.
SYNOPSIS
LIGHT RAIN IN THE CASCADES, NORTHERN MOUNTAINS AND IDAHO
PANHANDLE WILL CONTINUE TODAY. THEN STRONG HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS
IN ON TUESDAY AND REMAIN IN PLACE THROUGH THE UPCOMING WEEKEND.
LOW CLOUDS AND FOG IS EXPECTED TO EXPAND INTO THE VALLEYS
TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY, THEN BECOME ESTABLISHED ACROSS
MUCH OF THE INLAND NORTHWEST BY THURSDAY.
DISCUSSION
TONIGHT AND TUESDAY: A RIDGE BEGINS TO AMPLIFY OVER THE REGION
AND THE THREAT OF PRECIPITATION WANES, BUT THE POTENTIAL FLOW
LOWER LEVEL STRATUS AND FOG WILL INCREASE. A FAIR AMOUNT OF
MIDDLE TO HIGH CLOUDS WILL CONTINUE TO MIGRATE ACROSS THE REGION
TONIGHT INTO EARLY TUESDAY. A CHANCE OF RAIN AND HIGH MOUNTAIN
SNOW WILL CONTINUE NEAR THE CASCADES CREST AND NORTHEAST WA TO
NORTH ID THROUGH TONIGHT. THAT PRECIPITATION THREAT AND MIDDLE
TO HIGH CLOUDS WILL WANE INTO TUESDAY. PATCHY TO LOCALIZED AREAS
OF FOG ARE FORECAST FOR THE NORTHERN VALLEYS AND OUT TOWARD THE
WESTERN COLUMBIA BASIN TONIGHT, POSSIBLY EXPANDING INTO THE
SPOKANE AREA WITH THE HIGHER RISK NEAR THE RIVER. THEN TUESDAY
NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING THE STRATUS/LOW CLOUDS AND FOG ARE
EXPECTED TO EXPAND OUT ACROSS MORE OF THE AREA, INCLUDING
THROUGHOUT THE BASIN AND SPOKANE/CDA AREA. LOWS WILL LARGELY BE
IN THE MIDDLE TO UPPER 30S TONIGHT, WITH HIGHS IN 40S TO NEAR 50
TUESDAY AND THEN LOWS DROP INTO THE UPPER 20S AND 30S TUESDAY
NIGHT, WHICH MEANS SOME OF THAT FOG WILL BE FREEZING FOG.
WEDNESDAY TO MONDAY: A SHORTWAVE CROSSES BY THE AREA ON WEDNESDAY,
BRIEFLY DAMPENING THE RIDGE, BRINGING AN SLIGHT UPTICK IN WINDS
AND SOME PASSING HIGHER CLOUDS BUT MOSTLY DRY WEATHER IS
EXPECTED TO PERSIST. THEREAFTER THE RIDGE REBOUNDS ALONG THE
COAST AND THE AREA SITS IN A NORTHERLY FLOW UNTIL ABOUT NEXT
MONDAY. OCCASIONAL IMPULSES SKIRT BY, BRINGING A LOCALIZED
INCREASE IN NORTHEAST WINDS THROUGH THE NORTHERN VALLEYS.
OTHERWISE MOST AREAS WILL BE SHELTERED FROM MUCH OF THESE
PASSING SYSTEM, LEADING TO CONTINUES AREAS OF LOW CLOUDS AND
PATCHY FOG OUTSIDE OF THE MOUNTAINS. THIS WILL LEAD TO SOME
STAGNANT CONDITIONS, THOUGH THE STRATUS MAY KEEP MIXING HEIGHTS
A BIT MORE IN PLAY. THE LOW CLOUDS CONTINUE TO LOOK UNDERDONE BY
THE NBM, THUS THE FORECAST WAS ADJUSTED TO BE SURE THEY WERE IN
PLACE FOR SOME AREAS THROUGH AT LEAST THURSDAY, THEN SOME
EROSION IS POSSIBLE FROM THE EAST STARTING FRIDAY ONWARD. THE
TEMPERATURE FORECAST WILL BE LARGELY TIED TO THE AMOUNT AND
PERSISTENCE OF THAT CLOUD COVER, SO WITH THE INCREASE IN THAT
CLOUD COVER COMPARED TO THE NBM THE AFTERNOON HIGHS WERE HELD
BACK FROM REACHING THE FULL POTENTIAL SUGGESTED BY THE NBM. THIS
MEANS HIGHS IN THE MIDDLE TO UPPER 30S, WITH MORE 40S LATER IN
THE WEEK. PATCHY FOG AND FREEZING FOG WILL REMAIN A THREAT EACH
DAY, WITH THE BETTER POTENTIAL AWAY FROM THE DEEPEST STRATUS AND
IN THE SOUTHEAST TO EASTERN THIRD OF WA AND ID. /SOLVEIG
AVIATION
00Z TAFS: LIMITED RAIN SHOWER CHANCES WILL LINGER OVER THE
CASCADE CREST, NORTHEAST WA AND NORTH ID, INCLUDING NEAR
COLVILLE TO SANDPOINT. LOCALIZED IFR/MVFR CONDITIONS FORECAST
HERE. OTHERWISE TAF SITES LOOK VFR THIS EVENING AND TONIGHT,
THEN TUESDAY MORNING TO AFTERNOON SOME STRATUS/FOG IS FORECAST
TO EXPAND, WITH THE BEST CHANCE NEAR EAT AND SECONDARILY OVER
MWH. SOME COULD ALSO EXPAND INTO GEG/SFF/COE BUT CONFIDENCE IS
LOWER HERE.
FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND/OR ALTERNATE SCENARIOS:
HIGH CONFIDENCE OF VFR CONDITIONS AT ALL TAF SITES THIS
AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT. BUT ANOTHER ROUND OF SHALLOW FOG MAY
DEVELOP LATE MONDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY TUESDAY AS WELL, WITH
MODERATE CONFIDENCE AT EAT/MWH AND LOW CONFIDENCE AT
GEG/SFF/COE, THEN HEADING INTO THE AFTERNOON THE POTENTIAL FOR
DEEPER STRATUS START TO EXPAND OVER CENTRAL AND NORTHEAST WA
AND NORTH ID. PRECISE TIMING OF ANY DEVELOPMENT OF FOG/STRATUS
HAS LOW CONFIDENCE.
-----------------------
CONFIDENCE DESCRIPTORS:
LOW - LESS THAN A 30 PERCENT CHANCE
MODERATE - 30 TO 70 PERCENT CHANCE
HIGH - GREATER THAN A 70 PERCENT CHANCE
FOR ADDITIONAL PROBABILISTIC INFORMATION FOR NWS SPOKANE
AIRPORTS,PLEASE REFER TO THE AVIATION DASHBOARD ON OUR
WEBPAGE: HTTPS:/WWW.WEATHER.GOV/OTX/AVNDASHBOARD
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
SPOKANE 37 49 29 38 28 34 / 10 0 0 0 0 0
COEUR D'ALENE 36 48 30 42 28 36 / 20 0 0 0 0 0
PULLMAN 35 49 33 46 31 43 / 0 0 0 0 0 0
LEWISTON 37 52 34 48 32 37 / 0 0 0 0 0 0
COLVILLE 33 46 31 38 28 36 / 20 0 0 0 0 0
SANDPOINT 36 44 32 40 29 35 / 40 10 0 0 0 0
KELLOGG 40 49 35 46 30 41 / 10 10 0 0 0 0
MOSES LAKE 35 49 30 38 29 38 / 0 0 0 0 0 0
WENATCHEE 41 48 37 40 34 39 / 0 0 0 0 0 0
OMAK 37 46 34 38 31 38 / 10 0 0 0 0 0
OTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
WA...NONE.
ID...NONE.
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