008
FXUS66 KPDT 040535
AFDPDT
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PENDLETON OR
1035 PM PDT SUN MAY 3 2026
KEY MESSAGES
1. THUNDERSTORMS CHANCES THIS AFTERNOON
2. DRY AND ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE WEEK
3. PATTERN CHANGE NEXT WEEKEND WILL BRING PRECIPITATION BACK TO
THE REGION
DISCUSSION
CURRENT SATELLITE SHOWS MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES OVER THE FORECAST AREA.
SOME CUMULUS ARE BEGINNING TO POP UP OVER THE RIDGELINES OF THE
EASTERN MOUNTAINS AND CENTRAL OR. THE UPPER LEVEL LOW HAS MOVES
SOUTH OF THE REGION BUT IS STILL SLIGHTLY INFLUENCING THE SOUTHERN
PORTION OF THE REGION. RADAR SHOWS A FEW RETURNS WITH A CELL THAT
HAS EMBEDDED LIGHTNING FLASHES WITHIN. OTHERWISE, CLEAR SKIES AND
DRY CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE DAY TODAY.
MODELS SHOW THE UPPER LEVEL LOW TO BE TO THE SOUTH OF THE REGION
WITH SOME UPPER LEVEL FLOW INFLUENCING PORTIONS OF CENTRAL OR. CAMS
MODELS SHOW THERE TO BE INCREASED PROBABILITIES OF 10-20% FOR
THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH CENTRAL OR AND PORTIONS OF THE EASTERN
MOUNTAINS TODAY BEGINNING AFTER 2 PM AND PERSISTING THROUGH 9 PM. AN
UNSTABLE ATMOSPHERE COUPLED WITH FORECAST MODEL SOUNDINGS SHOWING
MUCAPE VALUES BETWEEN 800-1200 J/KG, LIFTED INDICES BETWEEN -3-(-
5), LAPSE RATES OF 8.5-9.5 C/KM WITH EFFECTIVE BULK SHEAR OF 10-20
KTS, THUNDERSTORMS CANNOT BE RULED OUT.
DETERMINISTIC MODELS SHOW THE UPPER LEVEL LOW TO CONTINUE TO MOVE
EAST LESSENING ITS INFLUENCE OF THE REGION EACH DAY. MODELS ALSO
SHOW AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE MOVING INTO THE REGION AS WELL. THIS WILL
KEEP THE REGION UNDER DRY AND WARMING CONDITIONS. YESTERDAY SAW A
TEMPERATURE RECORD BROKEN AT PASCO AND BASED ON PERSISTANCE AND
ENSEMBLES, CHANCES OF SEEING THE RECORD BREAK AGAIN TO DAY WITH A
HIGH OF 91 IN PASCO IS 20-40%. AS FOR THE REMAINING AREAS, IN HOUSE
CALCULATIONS SHOW MUCH OF THE REGION TO BE 15-20 DEGREES ABOVE
SEASONAL NORMAL WITH SOME AREAS SEEING S HIGH AS 25 DEGREES ABOVE
NORMAL. TEMPERATURES TODAY WILL BE IN THE UPPER 80S TO LOW 90S
THROUGH THE BASIN, GORGE, YAKIMA/KITTITAS VALLEYS AND ALONG THE
FOOTHILLS OF THE BLUES WITH 80-90% OF THE RAW ENSEMBLES IN
AGREEMENT. THE REMAINDER OF THE REGION WILL SEE LOW TO MID 80S WITH
MID 70S ALONG SOME OF THE HIGHER TERRAINS. THESE CONDITIONS WILL
PERSIST THROUGH THE WEEK WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE (70-90%).
MODELS ARE IN SOME AGREEMENT WITH A PATTERN CHANGE EXPECTED TO
ARRIVE FRIDAY. CLUSTERS SHOW THAT THE MAIN AREA OF DISAGREEMENT IS
WITH THE POSITION AND TIMING OF THE SYSTEM. MODELS SHOW THERE TO BE
INCREASED CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION ALONG THE CASCADES AND AN INCREASE
IN WINDS AS THE SYSTEM MOVES ACROSS THE REGION. CONFIDENCE IN THE
PATTERN CHANGE IS MODERATE (60-70%) WITH CONFIDENCE IN THE
PRECIPITATION AND THE INCREASED WINDS BEING LOW/MODERATE (40-60%).
NBM ALSO SHOWS THE SYSTEM WILL BRING TEMPERATURES DOWN A BIT WITH IN
HOUSE CALCULATIONS SHOWING TEMPERATURES TO BE 5-7 DEGREES ABOVE
SEASONAL NORMAL.
AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY/
VFR CONDITIONS TO
PREVAIL THROUGH THE PERIOD. LIGHT WINDS WILL PREVAIL OVERNIGHT,
THEN INCREASING AT SITES DLS/RDM/BDN/YKM TO 10-17KTS WITH GUSTS
UP TO 25KTS DEVELOPING LATE IN THE MORNING INTO THE AFTERNOON.
WINDS WILL OTHERWISE REMAIN LIGHT AT ALL OTHER SITES THROUGH THE
PERIOD. LAWHORN/82
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
PDT 52 82 52 79 / 0 0 0 0
ALW 56 82 55 78 / 0 0 0 0
PSC 52 88 54 84 / 0 0 0 0
YKM 55 88 56 84 / 0 0 10 0
HRI 51 87 53 83 / 0 0 0 0
ELN 51 83 51 79 / 0 0 10 0
RDM 43 80 44 79 / 0 0 0 0
LGD 48 78 50 74 / 0 0 0 0
GCD 45 78 46 76 / 0 0 0 0
DLS 57 85 57 83 / 0 0 0 0
PDT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
WA...NONE.
OR...NONE.
DISCUSSION...90
AVIATION...82
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