642
FXUS66 KPDT 130520
AFDPDT
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PENDLETON OR
1020 PM PDT SUN JUL 12 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- COOLER TEMPERATURES TODAY, WITH WARMER TEMPERATURES THIS WEEK.
- CHANCES OF ISOLATED TO SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THE
BLUE MOUNTAINS AND EASTERN MOUNTAINS THROUGH MID-WEEK.
- ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS PERSIST DUE TO DRY LIGHTNING
AND POTENTIAL LOW RH/BREEZY WINDS IN OTHER PLACES.
DISCUSSION
SATELLITE SHOWS AN AREA OF MID TO HIGH CLOUDS ACROSS THE EASTERN
PORTION OF THE REGION WITH RADAR RETURNING LIGHT ECHOES WITH
GENERAL SPOTTY LIGHT RAIN. RAIN WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE EAST WITH
MOST OF THE AREA DRYING OUT THROUGH THE REST OF THE AFTERNOON. A
SHORTWAVE OFF THE COAST OF WASHINGTON STATE IS BRINGING
SOUTHWEST FLOW WITH MARGINAL MID-LEVEL MOISTURE TRANSPORTATION.
GOING FORWARD, A RIDGE SITUATED OVER THE LOWER-48 WILL CONTINUE
TO INFLUENCE THE SYNOPTIC PATTERN, ALONG WITH A TROUGH/LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM OFF-SHORE IN THE PACIFIC. GOING THROUGH THIS
WEEK, MONSOONAL MOISTURE TRANSPORTATION ALONG WITH SOUTHWEST
FLOW FROM AN OFFSHORE LOW WILL ALLOW CHANCES OF ISOLATED TO
SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE BLUE MOUNTAINS AND
EASTERN MOUNTAINS (UP TO 30% CHANCE). GUIDANCE IS A BIT SHAKY
WITH HOW THE OFF-SHORE FLOW WILL BEHAVE TUESDAY ONWARDS, WITH A
SPREAD OF LOCATION AND INTENSITY AMONGST THE CLUSTERS. WEDNESDAY
GUIDANCE SHOWS ABOUT 54% OF CLUSTERS BRINGING IN A STRONGER
SHORTWAVE, WHILE 11% SHOWS A MUCH WEAKER TROUGH. UNCERTAINTY
GROWS MORE GOING INTO THURSDAY WITH 17% OF MEMBERS BRINGING
STRONGER TROUGH AND 27% BRINGING IN A WEAKER SYSTEM. HOW CLOSE
THE TROUGH GETS TO SHORE WILL DETERMINE THE AMOUNT OF
PRECIPITATION AND STRENGTH (OR NUMBER) OF THUNDERSTORMS
DEVELOPING THROUGH THE NEXT FEW DAYS. A CLOSER/STRONGER TROUGH
WILL BRING BETTER CHANCES OF STRONG THUNDERSTORMS THAN THE
OPPOSITE SCENARIO. CURRENT RRFS GUIDANCE ADVERTISES MULTIPLE
ROUNDS OF LIGHT TO MODERATE SHOWERS WITH ISOLATED CHANCES OF
THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS CENTRAL TO NORTHEASTERN OREGON TUESDAY,
WITH ISOLATED TO SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ON WEDNESDAY. NOTABLY,
THIS SOLUTION BRINGS THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM JUST OFFSHORE AS
THE HEAVIER THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOP LATE WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON.
TEMPERATURE WISE, HIGH TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE COLUMBIA BASIN
AND KITTITAS VALLEY WILL RISE TO LOW TO HIGH 90S WITH THE RIDGE
SUPPRESSING. TEMPERATURES REMAIN SOMEWHAT FLUCTUANT REGARDING
CONFIDENCE WITH THE POSITION/STRENGTH OF THE LOW THURSDAY
THROUGH THE REST OF THE WEEK AS METEOGRAMS SHOW BOX-AND-WHISKER
25TH AND 75TH RANGING 10-20 DEGREES. OVERALL CONFIDENCE POINTS
TO A WARMING TREND THROUGH AT LEAST THURSDAY.
AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY/
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH MONDAY. THERE IS LOW
CONFIDENCE (200% OR LESS) IN SMOKE FROM AREA WILDFIRES
AFFECTING CIGS/VSBYS AT BDN/RDM.
WINDS WILL MAINLY BE 10 KTS OR LESS, EXCEPT AT DLS, RDM AND BDN
WHICH WILL HAVE GUSTS TO AROUND 20 KTS ONCE AGAIN MONDAY
AFTERNOON/EVENING.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
PDT 82 56 92 61 / 0 0 0 0
ALW 84 60 94 66 / 0 0 0 0
PSC 86 57 95 62 / 0 0 0 0
YKM 87 56 95 60 / 0 0 0 0
HRI 85 58 95 64 / 0 0 0 0
ELN 81 53 90 58 / 0 0 0 0
RDM 87 52 93 55 / 0 0 0 0
LGD 88 58 94 62 / 0 0 0 0
GCD 90 57 94 61 / 0 0 0 10
DLS 87 58 94 62 / 0 0 0 0
PDT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
WA...NONE.
OR...NONE.
DISCUSSION...86
AVIATION...77
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