516
FXUS66 KPDT 120506
AFDPDT
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PENDLETON OR
1006 PM PDT THU JUN 11 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- DRY AND WARM TREND WILL CONTINUE THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK
- LOCALLY BREEZY NORTH TO NORTHEAST WINDS SATURDAY AND SUNDAY
- BREEZY TO LOCALLY WINDY CONDITIONS DEVELOPING TUESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY, LEADING TO ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS
DISCUSSION
TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY: THE REGION WILL SIT BETWEEN AN AMPLIFYING
UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OFFSHORE AND A BROAD TROUGH CENTERED OVER THE
NORTHERN GREAT PLAINS THROUGH THE WEEKEND. CONDITIONS WILL
REMAIN DRY ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA THROUGH THIS PERIOD, WHILE
DIURNALLY DRIVEN WINDS DEVELOP TODAY AND FRIDAY. OVER THE
WEEKEND, ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT OF SHORTWAVE
TROUGHING DIVING DOWN THE NORTHERN ROCKIES, WHICH WILL CLIP THE
PACNW. THIS WILL SHIFT SURFACE WINDS TO THE NORTH AND NORTHEAST
SATURDAY AND SUNDAY, WITH LOCALLY BREEZY WINDS (10-20 MPH)
DEVELOPING FROM THE COLUMBIA BASIN INTO CENTRAL OR IN THE
AFTERNOONS. THIS WILL LEAD TO ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS
ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE OR COLUMBIA BASIN SATURDAY AND SUNDAY
AFTERNOONS, THOUGH CHANCES OF RED FLAG THRESHOLDS BEING MET
EITHER DAY ARE ONLY 20-40%.
SUNDAY, ENSEMBLE CLUSTER GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT THE
UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OFFSHORE WILL MOVE CLOSER TO THE PACNW, WHICH
WILL INTRODUCE CHANCES (40-70%) OF HITTING 90 DEGREES ACROSS
PORTIONS OF THE COLUMBIA BASIN AND EASTERN GORGE.
MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY: ENSEMBLE CLUSTER GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD
AGREEMENT THAT THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL SLIDE INLAND MONDAY,
LIMITING WIND CONCERNS BUT ALSO INCREASING THE WARMING TREND
ACROSS THE LOWER ELEVATIONS, WITH MOD-HIGH CONFIDENCE (70-85%)
OF WIDESPREAD MAX TEMPERATURES IN THE 90S MONDAY. WITH THE
RIDGE AXIS MOVING OVERHEAD, WINDS WILL BECOME LIGHT, WHICH WILL
LIMIT FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS TO THE VERY DRY CONDITIONS IN THE
LOWER ELEVATIONS.
BY TUESDAY, GREAT AGREEMENT REMAINS IN THE UPPER RIDGE BREAKING
DOWN AS IT MOVES FURTHER INLAND, BRINGING THE PEAK OF THE
WARMING TREND IN THE AFTERNOON AS WELL AS INTRODUCING BREEZY TO
LOCALLY WINDY CONDITIONS TO THE INTERMOUNTAIN PACNW (CONFIDENCE
60-70%). MEDIUM RANGE AND ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE HAS BACKED OFF THE
POTENTIAL OF HITTING 100 DEGREES ON TUESDAY, WITH THE NBM
SHOWING A 10-20% CHANCE (IT WAS 30-50% 24 HOURS AGO) ACROSS THE
LOWEST AREAS OF THE COLUMBIA BASIN. WHILE CHANCES OF MAJOR
HEATRISK DEVELOPING TUESDAY HAVE DROPPED CONSIDERABLY (10-20%),
ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE DOES SHOW AN INCREASE IN MAJOR HEATRISK
CHANCES (15-45%) MONDAY ALONG THE EASTERN GORGE, YAKIMA VALLEY,
AND WA COLUMBIA BASIN.
WEDNESDAY, UNCERTAINTY GROWS IN THE EVOLUTION OF THE SYNOPTIC
PATTERN, WITH ABOUT 40% OF ENSEMBLE CLUSTER MEMBERS FAVORING A
SHORTWAVE TROUGH IMPACTING THE REGION (COOLER AND BREEZY
CONDITIONS), WHILE THE REMAINING MEMBERS SHOW A QUASI-ZONAL FLOW
ALOFT (MILD AND BREEZY CONDITIONS). LAWHORN/82
AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY/
VFR CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST AT ALL SITES FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS.
WINDS WILL BE DIURNALLY DRIVEN WITH PERIODIC AFTERNOON AND EARLY
EVENING GUSTS OF AROUND 15 KTS AT ALL SITES, EXCEPT DLS WHERE
HIGHER GUSTS OF 20-25 KTS ARE LIKELY (80 PERCENT CONFIDENCE).
MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES ARE ANTICIPATED.
FIRE WEATHER
DRY AND WARMING TREND THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK. RHS WILL DROP
INTO THE TEENS TO LOW 20S THROUGH SATURDAY, THEN TEENS THROUGH
WEDNESDAY. LOCALLY BREEZY NORTH TO NORTHEAST WINDS DEVELOP OVER
THE WEEKEND, WITH LOCALIZED ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS.
BREEZY TO LOCALLY WINDY CONDITIONS DEVELOP TUESDAY INTO
WEDNESDAY AS THE UPPER RIDGE BREAKS DOWN, RESULTING IN
WIDESPREAD ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ACROSS THE LOWER
ELEVATIONS.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
PDT 49 80 49 84 / 0 0 0 0
ALW 53 80 53 84 / 0 0 0 0
PSC 51 84 53 88 / 0 0 0 0
YKM 51 85 53 87 / 0 0 0 0
HRI 52 84 51 87 / 0 0 0 0
ELN 48 78 49 82 / 0 0 0 0
RDM 44 82 44 84 / 0 0 0 0
LGD 44 77 44 80 / 0 0 0 0
GCD 43 82 43 83 / 0 0 0 0
DLS 55 84 56 90 / 0 0 0 0
PDT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
WA...NONE.
OR...NONE.
DISCUSSION...82
AVIATION...86
FIRE WEATHER...82
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