156
FXUS66 KPDT 081823
AFDPDT
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PENDLETON OR
1123 AM PDT WED OCT 8 2025
.UPDATED FOR AVIATION
AVIATION
18Z TAFS...VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD.
WINDS WILL GENERALLY BE 10 KTS OR LESS, EXCEPT AT BDN AND RDM,
WHERE THEY WILL SEE GUSTS TO AROUND 20 KTS THROUGH LATE
AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING BEFORE WINDS DECREASE TO 10 KTS OR LESS.
THERE IS A CHANCE (<30%) OF A PASSING SHOWER LATE TONIGHT INTO
EARLY THURSDAY AT BDN AND RDM, BUT PROBABILITIES ARE LOW ENOUGH TO
NOT INCLUDE IN THE INDIVIDUAL TERMINALS AT THIS TIME, BUT CAN
REASSESS WITH LATER ISSUANCES.
PREV DISCUSSION
/ISSUED 411 AM PDT WED OCT 8 2025/
UPDATED AVIATION DISCUSSION...
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 225 AM PDT WED OCT 8 2025/
DISCUSSION...WATER VAPOR IMAGERY REVEALS A SHORTWAVE TROUGH
DIGGING SOUTH OFF THE COAST OF THE PACNW. ENSEMBLE NWP GUIDANCE
IS IN EXCELLENT AGREEMENT (>95% CHANCE) THAT THIS WAVE WILL
DEVELOP INTO AN OFFSHORE CLOSED LOW THROUGH THE DAY. ANALYSIS OF
ENSEMBLE CLUSTERS SUGGESTS A VERY HIGH CHANCE (>90%) THAT THE LOW
WILL THEN DEEPEN AND SPIN OFFSHORE THROUGH THURSDAY. HAVE SEEN A
FLIP-FLOP IN GUIDANCE AGAIN WITH RESPECT TO HOW FAR EAST
PRECIPITATION CHANCES WILL SPREAD WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY,
WITH HIGHER POPS (40-65%) NOW ROUGHLY CONFINED TO THE CASCADES AND
THEIR EASTERN SLOPES WITH LOWER POPS (15-30%) EXTENDING EASTWARD
ACROSS CENTRAL AND NORTH-CENTRAL OREGON INTO SOUTH-CENTRAL
WASHINGTON.
ENSEMBLE CLUSTERS INDICATE THE LONGWAVE PATTERN WILL ALMOST
CERTAINLY (>90% CHANCE) BECOME MORE PROGRESSIVE LATE FRIDAY
THROUGH THE WEEKEND. WHILE SOME DIFFERENCES ARE EVIDENT AMONG
ENSEMBLE CLUSTERS, ALL TRACK THE CLOSED LOW INLAND OVER THE
PACIFIC NORTHWEST THROUGH SATURDAY, WITH A SECOND SHORTWAVE
TROUGH DIGGING SOUTHEAST OUT OF BC LATE SATURDAY THROUGH THE
WEEKEND. THE COMBINATION OF THESE TWO SYSTEMS WILL INDUCE MEDIUM-
HIGH CHANCES (45-90%) OF PRECIPITATION FOR THE CASCADES AND BLUES
WITH A LOW-MEDIUM CHANCE (20-60%) OF RAIN FOR THE LOWER
ELEVATIONS LATE FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY. SNOW LEVELS WILL DROP
SUFFICIENTLY LOW (4-5 KFT) SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY TO ALLOW
A MEDIUM-HIGH CHANCE (50-80%) OF MEASURABLE SNOW IN THE MOUNTAINS.
NBM PROBABILITIES SUGGEST A 30-60% CHANCE OF AT LEAST 2" OF SNOW
FOR AREAS ABOVE 4500 FEET.
THE LACK OF SIGNIFICANT MOISTURE TRANSPORT INTO THE REGION WILL
LIMIT PRECIPITATION TOTALS OVER THE WEEKEND, ESPECIALLY FOR THE
LOWER ELEVATIONS. WHILE THE CASCADE CREST HAS A MEDIUM-HIGH
(50-80%) CHANCE OF 1" OF PRECIPITATION FOR THE 72-HR PERIOD ENDING
SUNDAY NIGHT, CHANCES ELSEWHERE ARE <30%. THE BLUES DO HAVE A
30-70% CHANCE OF 0.5" OF PRECIPITATION FOR THE AFOREMENTIONED
PERIOD. THE LOWER COLUMBIA BASIN HAS LOW (15-35%) CHANCES OF
0.25", WHILE COMMUNITIES IN CENTRAL OREGON AND ALONG THE BLUE
MOUNTAIN FOOTHILLS HAVE MEDIUM (40-65%) CHANCES OF 0.25" OR
GREATER.
BREEZY WESTERLY WINDS ARE FORECAST SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY AS THE
SECOND SHORTWAVE TRACKS ACROSS THE REGION, THOUGH THE FORECAST
MAGNITUDE OF THESE WINDS HAS DECREASED SINCE YESTERDAY. NBM
PROBABILITIES NOW SUGGEST A LOW-MEDIUM (20-50%) CHANCE OF WINDS
REACHING ADVISORY THRESHOLDS ACROSS WIND-PRONE AREAS OF THE
COLUMBIA GORGE/BASIN AND ADJOINING FOOTHILL AND VALLEY AREAS.
PLUNKETT/86
AVIATION...12Z TAFS...VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE
FORECAST PERIOD. ALL TAF SITES WILL BEGIN TO SEE CIGS 15-25KFT
AFTER 18Z WITH AN INCREASE IN WINDS NEARING 12 KTS AT DLS/RDM/BDN.
ELSEWHERE WILL REMAIN BELOW 10KTS. BENNESE/90
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
PDT 74 44 72 46 / 0 0 10 10
ALW 77 49 73 50 / 0 0 10 20
PSC 74 42 73 45 / 0 10 10 10
YKM 72 47 72 50 / 0 30 30 20
HRI 74 42 73 45 / 0 10 10 10
ELN 69 41 70 44 / 0 40 40 20
RDM 74 39 65 38 / 0 40 40 20
LGD 74 44 77 45 / 0 0 0 10
GCD 76 46 75 45 / 0 0 0 10
DLS 71 49 70 50 / 0 60 60 30
PDT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
OR...NONE.
WA...NONE.
SHORT TERM...86
LONG TERM....99
AVIATION...90
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