433
FXUS66 KPDT 161739
AFDPDT
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PENDLETON OR
1039 AM PDT SAT MAY 16 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- MOUNTAIN SNOW SHOWERS CONTINUE THROUGH THIS EVENING
- SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON
- MOSTLY DRY CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE WORKWEEK,
EXCEPT FOR ISOLATED MOUNTAIN SHOWERS SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY
DISCUSSION
TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY: A TROUGH PASSAGE THROUGH THE PACNW HAS
BROUGHT MOUNTAIN SHOWERS ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA TONIGHT, WITH
SHOWERS ALSO IMPACTING PORTIONS OF THE BLUE MOUNTAIN FOOTHILLS.
SNOW LEVELS ARE ON A STEADY DESCENT, WITH AREA CAMERAS SHOWING
LIGHT SNOW DEVELOPING ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE NORTHERN BLUES AND
THE CASCADES AT THIS TIME.
A COOLER AIRMASS WILL CONTINUE TO FILTER INTO THE PACNW TODAY AS
THE UPPER TROUGH REMAINS OVER THE REGION. SURFACE PRESSURE
GRADIENTS WILL TIGHTEN THIS AFTERNOON, LEADING TO BREEZY
WESTERLY WINDS (15-30 MPH WITH GUSTS UP TO 40 MPH) DEVELOPING
THROUGH THE CASCADE GAPS AND INTO THE REMAINDER OF THE LOWER
ELEVATION ZONES. SNOW LEVELS WILL BRIEFLY DROP BELOW 4KFT
ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA THIS MORNING, THEN REBOUND JUST ABOVE
4KFT BY THE AFTERNOON. AREAS OF THE CASCADES AND EASTERN
MOUNTAINS ABOVE THIS WILL SEE LIGHT TO MODERATE SNOW SHOWERS
DEVELOP THROUGHOUT TODAY, WITH MODERATE TO LOCALLY HEAVY SNOW
ACCUMULATIONS ALONG THE CASCADE EAST SLOPES. WINTER WEATHER
ADVISORIES WERE ISSUED FOR THE WA CASCADE UPPER EAST SLOPES AND
THE OR CASCADE EAST SLOPES THROUGH THIS EVENING, WITH 70-85%
CHANCE OF SNOW ACCUMULATIONS GREATER THAN 6 INCHES ALONG THE WA
CASCADE EAST SLOPES AND 5 INCHES FOR THE OR EAST SLOPES.
OTHERWISE, INCREASING LOW TO MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES WILL INCREASE
THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS, WHILE SURFACE CAPE IS
EXPECTED TO INCREASE TO 200-300 J/KG. COMBINED WITH LOW TO MID
LEVEL UPSLOPE FLOW INTO THE CASCADES AND BLUES, THE INCREASING
INSTABILITY IN THE AFTERNOON WILL LEAD TO ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS
CAPABLE OF SMALL HAIL AND GUSTY OUTFLOW WINDS.
SUNDAY, A SHORTWAVE DIVING SOUTH WILL PULL THE UPPER TROUGH
SOUTH AND EAST OF THE PACNW. THIS WILL LIMIT SHOWERS TO THE
HIGHER TERRAIN OF THE BLUES, WALLOWAS, AND ALONG THE ELKHORN
CREST THROUGH SUNDAY AFTERNOON. SNOW LEVELS WILL QUICKLY RISE TO
4.5KFT TO 5KFT, LIMITING SNOW SHOWERS TO ABOVE THESE ELEVATIONS.
ELSEWHERE, CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN DRY WITH WINDS BECOMING LIGHT
TO LOCALLY BREEZY IN THE LOWER ELEVATIONS.
MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY: THERE IS GOOD AGREEMENT THROUGH WEDNESDAY
THAT UPPER LEVEL RIDGING WILL DEVELOP OFFSHORE, PLACING THE
PACNW UNDER A NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT. A SERIES OF WEAK SHORTWAVES
DIVING DOWN THE NORTHWEST FLOW MONDAY AND TUESDAY WILL BRING A
CHANCE (15-30%) OF ISOLATED SHOWERS TO THE WA CASCADES, NORTHERN
BLUES, AND WALLOWAS(CONFIDENCE 60-70%). ELSEWHERE, CONDITIONS
WILL REMAIN DRY.
WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY, NEARLY TWO-THIRDS OF ENSEMBLE
CLUSTER MEMBERS ARE IN AGREEMENT OF A SHORTWAVE TROUGH FEATURE
PUSHING THE RIDGE EAST, THEN ACROSS THE PACNW THURSDAY WITH
ISOLATED MOUNTAIN SHOWERS. BY FRIDAY, THESE MEMBERS PUSH THE
SHORTWAVE AND PRECIPITATION CHANCES EAST OF THE REGION, WITH
UPPER LEVEL RIDGING ONCE AGAIN BUILDING OFFSHORE.
OTHER THAN PRECIP CHANCES, THE PACNW WILL FEEL THE INFLUENCE OF
THE UPPER RIDGE THROUGH A GRADUAL WARMING TREND DURING THE WEEK,
WITH A RETURN TO HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE UPPER 70S TO LOWER
80S IN THE LOWER ELEVATIONS BY THURSDAY AND FRIDAY (CONFIDENCE
55-65%). LAWHORN/82
AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY/
PREDOMINANTLY VFR CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST FOR THE NEXT 24
HOURS. HOWEVER, RAIN SHOWERS WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING SUB-
VFR CIGS/VSBYS TODAY AT ALL SITES. PRECIPITATION IS MOST LIKELY
AT ALW/PDT/PSC, FOLLOWED BY BDN/RDM/DLS, AND LEAST LIKELY AT
YKM. MOREOVER, CHANCES OF THUNDER ARE WORTH NOTING AT
ALW/PDT/PSC WHERE A 15-25 PERCENT CHANCE OF THUNDER IS FORECAST
LATER THIS MORNING THROUGH THIS EVENING; HAVE LEFT MENTION OF
TSRA OUT OF THE 18Z TAFS DUE TO UNCERTAINTY IN TIMING OF ANY
THUNDER.
WINDS WILL BE BREEZY TO LOCALLY WINDY (12-25 KTS SUSTAINED, WITH
GUSTS OF 20-35 KTS) TODAY, AND ARE FORECAST TO SLACKEN TO 10 KTS
OR LESS OVERNIGHT.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
PDT 59 36 62 39 / 30 30 10 0
ALW 58 40 62 42 / 70 50 10 0
PSC 65 38 70 41 / 20 20 0 0
YKM 64 37 71 41 / 10 0 0 0
HRI 63 36 68 40 / 20 20 0 0
ELN 56 34 64 38 / 10 0 0 0
RDM 54 26 60 28 / 10 20 0 0
LGD 51 33 54 33 / 80 60 10 0
GCD 52 31 54 31 / 30 60 10 0
DLS 60 39 67 43 / 30 10 0 0
PDT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
WA...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 11 PM PDT THIS EVENING FOR
WAZ522.
OR...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 11 PM PDT THIS EVENING FOR
ORZ509.
DISCUSSION...82
AVIATION...86
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