121
FXUS66 KPDT 200610
AFDPDT
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PENDLETON OR
1010 PM PST THU FEB 19 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- MOUNTAIN SNOW THROUGH FRIDAY
- LIGHT MOUNTAIN SNOW, LOW ELEVATION RAIN AND INCREASED WINDS
OVER THE WEEKEND
- ACTIVE WEATHER PATTER CONTINUES THROUGH MIDWEEK
DISCUSSION
CURRENT SATELLITE SHOWS LOW AND MID LEVEL CLOUDS FORMING ACROSS
THE EASTERN SLOPES OF THE CASCADES AND THROUGH PORTIONS OF
CENTRAL OR. RADAR SHOWS NOT RETURNS ACROSS MUCH OF THE REGION.
HOWEVER, BEND AND REDMOND OBSERVATIONS ARE CURRENTLY REPORTING
LIGHT SNOW. THIS WILL LIKELY CONTINUE OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS
WITH UP TO 0.10 INCHES OF ADDITIONAL SNOW ACCUMULATION (70-90%).
MODELS SHOW THE UPPER LEVEL LOW TO BE TO THE SOUTHWEST OF THE
REGION BRINGING IN A SLIGHT SOUTHWEST FLOW AND LIGHT
PRECIPITATION THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE DAY TODAY. MOUNTAINS
WILL CONTINUE TO SEE LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS (80-90%) WITH
ACCUMULATIONS NEARING 0.10-0.30" FOR THE WA CASCADES, 0.20-0.50
FOR THE OCHOCO-JOHN DAY HIGHLANDS (60-80%) AND 0.30-0.40" FOR
THE NORTHERN BLUES (70-90%)
AS WE MOVE INTO FRIDAY, MODELS SHOW THE LEADING EDGE OF A WEAK
UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL MAKE ITS WAY INTO THE REGION BRINGING
WITH IT LIGHT PRECIPITATION MAINLY TO THE HIGH PEAKS OF THE
CASCADES AND A BIT MORE PRECIPITATION CAUSED BY OROGRAPHIC
LIFTING TO THE NORTHERN BLUES. WITH THAT, MODELS AS WELL AS HREF
RAW ENSEMBLES SHOW 70-90% PROBABILITIES OF THE NORTHERN BLUES,
MEACHAM, TOLLGATE AND BLUEWOOD SEEING AN ADDITIONAL 1-2" OF
SNOW FRIDAY WITH THE SLOPES OF THE NORTHERN BLUES SEEING 0.2-0.3
INCHES. AS FOR THE EAGLE CAPS AND THE SURROUNDING WALLOWA
MOUNTAINS, HREF RAW ENSEMBLES HAVE THE RIDGETOPS SEEING 1-2"
(70-90%) WHILE PORTIONS OF WALLOWA VALLEY COULD SEE 0.20- 0.3"
(30-50%). LASTLY, UNION COUNTY COULD SEE LIGHT SNOW OF 0.10-
0.20" (60-80%).
WITH THE INCOMING FRONTAL SYSTEM, BOTH THE NBM AND HREF ARE
PICKING UP ON AN INCREASE IN WINDS ACROSS THE FOOTHILLS OF THE
SOUTHERN AND NORTHERN BLUES, THROUGH UNION COUNTY AND PORTIONS
OF CENTRAL OR ON SATURDAY MORNING. HREF RAW ENSEMBLES SHOW WINDS
TO KICK UP AFTER 4 AM WITH 70-80% PROBABILITIES OF THE
FOOTHILLS OF THE BLUES AND ISOLATED LOCATIONS THROUGH CENTRAL OR
SEEING WINDS NEARING 20 MPH SUSTAINED WITH GUSTS TO 30 MPH.
AFTER NOON, NBM RAW ENSEMBLES PICK UP ON WINDS INCREASING
THROUGH UNION COUNTY WITH 80-90% PROBABILITIES OF SUSTAINED
WINDS NEARING 30 MPH WITH GUSTS TO NEAR 40 MPH. ALTHOUGH MODELS
ARE NOT PICKING UP ON IT, PATTERN RECOGNITION WITH SOUTHERLY
FLOW OVER THE MOUNTAINS INTO WALLOWA, WE EXPECT WINDS TO
INCREASE THROUGH THE VALLEY.
MODELS SHOW AN ACTIVE PATTERN TO PERSIST THROUGH THE LONG TERM.
THIS PATTERN WILL BRING MOUNTAIN SNOW AND LOW ELEVATION RAIN.
CLUSTERS SHOW THE MAIN DEVIATION WITH THE MODELS IS IN THE
TIMING AND OR LOCATION OF THE INCOMING SYSTEMS. REGARDLESS, ALL
MODELS SHOW PRECIPITATION ACCOMPANYING THE NEXT ROUND OF
SYSTEMS. (50-70% CONFIDENCE) 90
AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY/
AT THE TIME OF WRITING, A BAND OF SNOW WAS MOVING EAST OF
PDT/ALW, WHILE SNOW SHOWERS ARE TRACKING SOUTHEAST TOWARDS PSC.
EXPECTING (70 PERCENT CONFIDENCE) THIS CLUSTER OF SNOW SHOWERS
TO PERSIST INTO THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD, AND HAVE INCLUDED PROB30
GROUPS AT PSC/PDT/ALW FOR IFR OR LOWER CONDITIONS IN SHOWERS.
ELSEWHERE, PROBABILITIES OF PRECIPITATION ARE LOW (10 PERCENT OR
LESS) FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS. SUSTAINED WINDS OF 10 KTS OR LESS
ARE FORECAST AT ALL SITES, THOUGH PERIODIC GUSTS UP TO 15 KTS
ARE ANTICIPATED AT ALL SITES EXCEPT YKM EITHER OVERNIGHT OR
FRIDAY. LASTLY, WHILE FG WAS NOT EXPLICITLY INCLUDED IN THE 06Z
TAFS, WILL NOTE THAT HREF PROBABILITIES SHOW A 60-80 PERCENT
CHANCE OF VSBYS OF 1/2SM OR LESS (EITHER IN FG OR SHSN) OVERNIGHT
AT PDT/ALW, WITH A 30-50 PERCENT CHANCE THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING.
86
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
PDT 25 41 25 47 / 40 10 0 10
ALW 27 40 27 47 / 50 30 0 10
PSC 25 45 26 48 / 20 0 0 10
YKM 22 40 25 41 / 20 10 10 30
HRI 26 44 25 48 / 40 0 0 10
ELN 17 35 22 38 / 20 10 10 40
RDM 17 40 22 43 / 10 0 10 20
LGD 22 38 24 41 / 60 30 0 10
GCD 21 37 22 42 / 60 0 0 20
DLS 28 45 30 44 / 10 10 10 60
PDT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
WA...NONE.
OR...NONE.
DISCUSSION...90
AVIATION...86
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