911
FXUS66 KPDT 111717
AFDPDT
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PENDLETON OR
1017 AM PDT SAT APR 11 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- AREAS OF THUNDERSTORMS TODAY THROUGH CENTRAL OR AND FOOTHILLS
OF THE BLUES.
- COOLER TREND CONTINUES THROUGH THE WEEK.
- RETURN OF WETTER PATTERN THROUGH THE SECOND HALF OF THE WEEK.
DISCUSSION
CURRENT RADAR SHOWS SHOWER ACTIVITY FROM THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
CONTINUING TO BRING POP-UP SHOWERS ACROSS THE REGION. A FEW
HEAVY SHOWERS ARE DEVELOPING NEAR THE KITTITAS REGION
CONTINUING TO DRIFT NORTH, WHICH WILL EVENTUALLY HEAD OVER INTO
ELLENSBURG. AS THE TROUGH CONTINUE TO DRIFT EASTWARD, SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES WILL CONTINUE TO BE MEDIUM TO HIGH
(40-70%) WHILE THUNDERSTORM CHANCE (15-30%) DEVELOP ALONG
CENTRAL OREGON THROUGH THE JOHN DAY HIGHLAND AND FOOTHILLS OF
THE BLUES. NBM DEVELOPS 250-350 J/KG OF CAPE BY THE EARLY
AFTERNOON SATURDAY WITH HREF PAINTBALLS SUPPORTING T-STORM
DEVELOPMENT IN THE LATE MORNING THROUGH AFTERNOON HOURS. HOW
WIDESPREAD CONVECTION INITIATION HAPPENS REMAINS UNCERTAIN DUE
TO THE GENERAL OVERCAST CONDITIONS THAT WILL PROHIBIT THE
CONVECTION TO ITS FULLEST POTENTIAL. IN AREAS OF MORE GENERAL
BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS THROUGH THE DAY WILL SEE THE GREATEST
CHANCE OF T-STORM DEVELOPMENT AND WIDESPREAD ERRATIC WIND GUSTS
FROM EMBEDDED STORMS. REGARDLESS, HEAVY RAIN IS EXPECTED FOR
AREAS ACROSS CENTRAL OREGON AND THE JOHN DAY HIGHLANDS AND, TO A
SLIGHTLY LESSER EXTENT, THE FOOTHILLS OF THE BLUES. THE
STRONGEST STORMS WILL SEE A SLIGHT CHANCE (15-25% CHANCE) OF PEA
SIZE HAIL FALLING.
ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT AFTER THIS TROUGH
DEPARTURE, THE UPPER LEVEL PATTERN WILL TURN MORE ZONAL TUESDAY
TO GIVE US DRY WEATHER BEFORE BECOMING MORE UNSETTLED THE
FOLLOWING DAY ON WEDNESDAY. GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT
A SECONDARY TROUGH DROPS FROM THE BRITISH COLUMBIA/GULF OF
ALASKA REGION, BRINGING WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION CHANCES ACROSS
THE REGION. THINGS BECOME A BIT UNCERTAIN GOING INTO DAY 5 ON
WEDNESDAY REGARDING SNOWFALL AMOUNTS IN THE CASCADE AND NORTHERN
BLUE MOUNTAIN REGION. ABOUT 30% OF MEMBERS BRINGS A MUCH WEAKER
TROUGH, WHILE 49% DEVELOPS A STRONGER TROUGH WITH A WETTER
SOLUTION THAT WOULD BRING 4-7 INCHES OF SNOW ACROSS THE
CASCADES AND WALLOWAS WHICH WOULD BRING WINTER WEATHER
HIGHLIGHTS. REGARDLESS, THERE IS STILL PLENTY OF TIME TO
MONITOR FOR TRENDS IN THE FORECAST AND SEE IF WINTER HIGHLIGHTS
ARE WARRANTED.
AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY/
VFR CONDITIONS ACROSS ALL TAF SITES THROUGH MUCH OF THE PERIOD.
BDN/RDM WILL SEE A DECREASE TO MVFR DUE TO LOW CIGS MOVING IN
AFTER 11Z. TODAY, MOST TAF SITES WILL SEE LIGHT RAIN TO PROB30
CHANCES OF THUNDERSTORMS AFTER 20Z, ESPECIALLY SITES IN CENTRAL
OR AND SITES ALONG THE FOOTHILLS OF THE BLUES. ALTHOUGH THERE'S
NO BELOW VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE START OF THE PERIOD, THE
PROB30 CHANCES INCLUDE TEMPORARY MVFR CONDITIONS IN THE HEAVIEST
STORMS THAT WILL DEVELOP MAINLY AFFECTING THE VIS IN HEAVY
RAIN. 90
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
PDT 65 43 58 43 / 50 30 80 80
ALW 65 46 60 45 / 50 20 90 80
PSC 71 44 65 47 / 30 10 60 60
YKM 67 42 67 44 / 40 10 40 30
HRI 69 44 62 45 / 30 20 70 60
ELN 61 38 64 42 / 50 10 30 20
RDM 61 37 54 35 / 70 60 70 60
LGD 62 41 54 40 / 80 60 90 90
GCD 61 40 51 38 / 50 70 90 80
DLS 68 46 62 47 / 60 30 60 50
PDT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
WA...NONE.
OR...NONE.
DISCUSSION...95
AVIATION...90
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.
Main Text Page