303
FXUS66 KPDT 011814
AFDPDT
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PENDLETON OR
1114 AM PDT SAT AUG 1 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- WINDY CONDITIONS AND LOW RELATIVE HUMIDITIES WILL LEAD TO
EXTREMELY CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS TODAY.
- WIND ADVISORIES ARE IN EFFECT FOR PORTIONS OF THE AREA.
- CONTINUED DRY, WITH A WARMING TREND THROUGH NEXT WEEK.
DISCUSSION
SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW WAS OVER THE REGION EARLY TODAY IN ADVANCE
OF LOW PRESSURE MOVING INTO BRITISH COLUMBIA. THE TROUGH
ASSOCIATED WITH THIS LOW WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION LATER TODAY
AND BRING A DRY COLD FRONT ALONG WITH IT.
AS THESE FEATURES MOVE THROUGH, THE PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL
TIGHTEN, RESULTING IN BREEZY TO WINDY CONDITIONS DEVELOPING
ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA. THE BREEZY TO WINDY CONDITIONS HAVE
PROMPTED THE ISSUANCE OF BOTH WIND ADVISORIES AND RED FLAG
WARNINGS DUE TO THE LOW HUMIDITIES AS WELL. THE VERY DRY
ANTECEDENT CONDITIONS AND GUSTY WINDS COULD LEAD TO EXTREME
FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ACROSS THE AREA TODAY. AS A RESULT RED
FLAG WARNINGS HAVE BEEN ISSUED WITH PDS (PARTICULARLY DANGEROUS
SITUATION) RED FLAG WARNINGS FOR A PORTION OF THE TIME.
NBM PROBABILITIES OF WIND GUSTS >= 39 MPH ARE >80 PERCENT ACROSS
MOST OF THE KITTITAS VALLEY, COLUMBIA BASIN, GORGE, SIMCOE
HIGHLANDS AND 50-80 PERCENT ACROSS THE FOOTHILLS OF THE BLUE
MOUNTAINS. NBM PROBABILITIES OF WIND GUSTS >=47 MPH ARE >80
PERCENT FOR THE KITTITAS VALLEY AND LOCALLY >70 PERCENT BUT FOR
THE WIDER AREA ARE MUCH LOWER. THE ECMWF EFI HAS SOME AREAS OF
0.8 TO 0.9 AND EVEN AN AREA OF 0.9 TO 0.95 FOR WIND GUSTS TODAY
ACROSS THE COLUMBIA BASIN, HOWEVER IT IS A SMALL AREA AND NOT
WIDESPREAD.
AFTER TODAY, THERE IS A SECOND DRY TROUGH THAT DROPS DOWN ON
SUNDAY THAT WILL KEEP THINGS BREEZY, THOUGH NOT NEARLY AS WINDY
AS TODAY. NBM PROBABILITIES OF WIND GUSTS >= 25 MPH ARE FAIRLY
WIDESPREAD, BUT WIND GUST PROBABILITIES >= 39 MPH ARE RELATIVELY
SMALL.
AFTER SUNDAY, WE GET INTO A MORE WEST TO NORTHWEST FLOW OF DRY
WEATHER WITH WARMING TEMPERATURES THROUGH AT LEAST MIDWEEK.
AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY/
PREDOMINANTLY VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE TAF
PERIOD, THOUGH SMOKE FROM AREA WILDFIRES WILL CONTINUE TO BE
PRESENT AND WILL HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO REDUCE CIGS/VSBYS,
ESPECIALLY IN THE MORNINGS. ADDITIONALLY, A SUBSET OF CAMS
WITHIN THE HREF AND REFS DEPICT MVFR CIGS IN LOW STRATUS
(1.5-2.5KFT AGL) OVERNIGHT INTO SUNDAY MORNING AT BDN/RDM.
CONFIDENCE IN PERSISTENT CIGS WAS LOW (<30%), BUT DID INCLUDE
FEW025 TO HIGHLIGHT THE POTENTIAL FOR LOW STRATUS.
WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO INCREASE IN MAGNITUDE LATE THIS MORNING
THROUGH THE AFTERNOON, WITH BREEZY TO LOCALLY WINDY WESTERLIES
(GENERALLY 15-25 KTS WITH GUSTS OF 20-35 KTS) PERSISTING AT ALL
SITES THROUGH EVENING BEFORE SLACKENING OVERNIGHT INTO MONDAY.
FIRE WEATHER
THE COMBINATION OF GUSTY WINDS AND LOW RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES
WILL MAKE FOR CRITICAL TO EXTREMELY CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER
CONCERNS ACROSS MUCH OF THE REGION TODAY. RED FLAG WARNINGS HAVE
BEEN ISSUED FROM 11 AM UNTIL 11 PM WITH WA690, 691, 692, 693
AND OR691, 692, 693 694, 695, 696 AND 700 UNDER A PARTICULARLY
DANGEROUS SITUATION (PDS) RED FLAG WARNING FROM 2 PM UNTIL 8
PM. WINDS SHOULD GUST TO 30 TO 40 MPH ACROSS THESE AREAS TODAY
WITH SOME LOCALLY HIGHER GUSTS.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
PDT 83 46 76 45 / 0 0 0 0
ALW 87 52 78 51 / 0 0 0 0
PSC 92 51 81 50 / 0 0 0 0
YKM 85 52 80 51 / 0 0 0 0
HRI 86 52 80 49 / 0 0 0 0
ELN 76 49 73 49 / 0 0 0 0
RDM 81 40 78 38 / 0 0 0 0
LGD 87 47 77 44 / 0 0 0 0
GCD 92 48 81 44 / 0 0 0 0
DLS 79 56 79 55 / 0 0 0 0
PDT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
WA...RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 11 PM PDT THIS EVENING FOR WAZ690>693.
WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 11 PM PDT THIS EVENING FOR WAZ024-026>029-
521.
AIR QUALITY ALERT UNTIL 2 PM PDT MONDAY FOR WAZ028>030.
OR...RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 11 PM PDT THIS EVENING FOR ORZ691>704.
WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 11 PM PDT THIS EVENING FOR ORZ041-044-507-
508-510.
AIR QUALITY ALERT UNTIL 2 PM PDT MONDAY FOR ORZ044-049-050-502-
503-505>511.
DISCUSSION...77
AVIATION...86
FIRE WEATHER...77
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