232
FXUS66 KPDT 082257
AFDPDT
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PENDLETON OR
357 PM PDT SAT AUG 8 2026
KEY MESSAGES
1. BREEZY TO WINDY CONDITIONS AND LOW RHS TODAY AND SATURDAY
*RED FLAG WARNING*
2. DRY, WARM AND BREEZY CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE WEEKEND
AND BEGINNING OF THE WEEK
3. PATTERN SHIFT MID-WEEK COULD BRING PRECIPITATION
DISCUSSION
CURRENT SATELLITE SHOWS SMOKEY SKIES OVER THE REGION THIS AFTERNOON
WHICH WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD. AQAS HAVE BEEN
EXTENDED THROUGH MONDAY FOR ALL COUNTIES EXCEPT SHERMAN, GILLIAM AND
MORROW WITH DESCHUTES. OTHERWISE,INCREASED SOUTHWEST TO WESTERLY
FLOW WILL KEEP THE SMOKE MOVING EAST WITH A BIT OF REPRIEVE FROM
SURFACE SMOKE.
NOT MUCH CHANGE TO THE SHORT TERM FORECAST. MODELS CURRENTLY SHOW THE
SURFACE THERMAL TROUGH EXITING THE EASTERN PORTION OF THE REGION
LEAVING MOSTLY WESTERLY FLOW AT THE SURFACE. EVEN WITH THE WEST
FLOW, HOT, DRY AND BREEZY CONDITIONS ARE STILL EXPECTED.
TEMPERATURES ARE IN THE MID TO UPPER 90S ACROSS A VAST MAJORITY OF
THE REGION WITH HUMIDITY AS LOW A SINGLE DIGITS AND WINDS BETWEEN 10
TO 20 MPH WITH AREAS GUSTING BETWEEN 20 TO 40 MPH (70-90%
CONFIDENCE). RED FLAG WARNING TODAY THROUGH 11 PM FOR THE LOWER
COLUMBIA BASIN OF OR & WA, EASTERN COLUMBIA RIVER GORGE, WARM
SPRINGS RESERVATION AND KITTITAS VALLEY.
WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN 10 TO 15 MPH AND GUSTING BETWEEN 25 TO
35 MPH THROUGH AT LEAST TUESDAY WITH 70-80% OF THE NBM RAW ENSEMBLES
IN AGREEMENT. MINIMUM RELATIVE HUMIDITY WILL SLOWLY INCREASE AND THE
AREA WILL REMAIN IN ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS BUT UNDER
CRITICAL THRESHOLDS. WESTERLY FLOW WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE WEEKEND
AND BEGINNING OF NEXT WEEK WITH TEMPERATURES BECOMING SLIGHTLY
COOLER. IN HOUSE CALCULATIONS SHOWS MUCH OF THE REGION TO STILL BE
ABOVE SEASONAL AVERAGE AT 10-20 FOR TODAY STEADILY DECREASING TO
NEAR 5 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL BY MONDAY.
MODELS ARE COMING INTO SLIGHT AGREEMENT WITH A PATTERN CHANGE BY MID-
WEEK. MODELS ARE SHOWING AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH MAKING ITS WAY INTO
THE REGION WITH A FOUR CORNERS HIGH SET UP TO THE SOUTH. THIS HAS
THE POTENTIAL TO BRING IN SOME MONSOONAL MOISTURE AS WELL AS SOME
INSTABILITY. DEPENDING THE TRACK OF THE UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL
DETERMINE JUST HOW MUCH THE AREA WILL SEE.
AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z MONDAY/
THE STRONGEST WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO BE AROUND DLS, INCREASING
THROUGH THE LATE AFTERNOON WITH LOCAL GUSTS AS HIGH AS 26 KNOTS
THROUGH AS LATE AS MIDNIGHT. WINDS AROUND 12 KNOTS WITH GUSTS TO
AROUND 15-20 KNOTS AT PDT/ALW WILL CEASE TO GUST MUCH EARLIER
AROUND SUNSET AND BACK DIRECTIONAL TO THE SOUTHWEST OR SOUTH
WITH TIME TONIGHT. AT YKM, AN INCREASE IN WIND GUSTS BETWEEN
SUNSET AND MIDNIGHT IS SUPPORTED BY HRRR AND LAMP GUIDANCE.
LIGHT WEST WIND AT PSC SHOULD BECOME VARIABLE UNDER 5 KNOTS
THROUGH LATE SUNDAY MORNING. SMOKE ISN’T CONCENTRATED ENOUGH IN
THE RIGHT PLACES TO MAKE SIGNIFICANT IMPACTS ON TERMINAL
SENSIBILITIES TONIGHT, SO VFR CONDITIONS AT ALL TERMINALS IS
FORECAST.
FIRE WEATHER
RED FLAG WARNINGS IN EFFECT THROUGH 11 PM FOR WINDS
AND LOW RELATIVE HUMIDITIES. THIS IS FOR THE COLUMBIA RIVER BASIN OF
OR & WA, EASTERN COLUMBIA RIVER GORGE, WARM SPRINGS RESERVATION AND
KITTITAS VALLEY FOR WINDS 10-20 MPH GUSTING TO 20-40 MPH WITH
HUMIDITY AS LOW AS 10-15%. UPPER LEVEL FLOW ALOFT IS FROM THE WEST
DRIVING BREEZY WESTERLY FLOW AT THE SURFACE.
BREEZY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PERSIST THROUGH THE BEGINNING OF
THE WEEK WITH WEST WINDS 10-15 MPH AND GUSTING TO NEAR 20-30 MPH (70-
80% CONFIDENCE). COOLER MORE MOIST AIR WILL MAKE ITS WAY ACROSS THE
CASCADES SUNDAY. HUMIDITY WILL SEE A SLIGHT INCREASE BY SUNDAY AND
WILL DECREASE FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS FROM CRITICAL TO ELEVATED.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
PDT 56 89 55 88 / 0 0 0 0
ALW 62 90 61 89 / 0 0 0 0
PSC 58 92 58 91 / 0 0 0 0
YKM 59 93 59 92 / 0 0 0 0
HRI 61 91 59 90 / 0 0 0 0
ELN 59 87 57 86 / 0 0 0 0
RDM 47 89 45 88 / 0 0 0 0
LGD 55 91 53 90 / 0 0 0 0
GCD 53 92 52 91 / 0 0 0 0
DLS 61 90 60 89 / 0 0 0 0
PDT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
WA...RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 11 PM PDT THIS EVENING FOR WAZ690-691.
AIR QUALITY ALERT UNTIL 5 AM PDT TUESDAY FOR WAZ024-026>030-
521>523.
OR...AIR QUALITY ALERT UNTIL NOON PDT MONDAY FOR ORZ041-044-049-050-
502-503-505>511.
RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 11 PM PDT THIS EVENING FOR ORZ691-701-
703.
DISCUSSION...90
AVIATION...71
FIRE WEATHER...90
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