024
FXUS66 KPDT 141718
AFDPDT
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PENDLETON OR
1018 AM PDT THU MAY 14 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- BREEZY TO LOCALLY WINDY WITH MOUNTAINS SHOWERS THROUGH FRIDAY
- DRIER AND WARMER TOWARD THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.
DISCUSSION
THE FORECAST AND IMPACTS GOING FORWARD CENTER ON RAPID WARMING
AND INCREASED STREAM FLOWS AS A STRONG UPPER RIDGE TAKES HOLD OF
THE REGION IN THE MID LEVELS AND STREAMS REACT TO THE ROUGHLY
ONE QUARTER INCH OF RAIN THAT FELL ACROSS THE CASCADE CREST
TUESDAY NIGHT. INITIALLY WE ARE UNDER A ZONAL WESTERLY FLOW IN
THE MID LEVELS FOR AT LEAST THE NEXT 2 TO 3 DAYS. PACIFIC HIGH
PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO DRIVE WESTERLY SURFACE WINDS AREAWIDE,
THE STRONGEST TODAY WHICH WILL BE IN THE EASTERN COLUMBIA RIVER
GORGE AVERAGING 20 TO 35 MPH. HIGH TEMPERATURES TODAY WILL JUMP
ABOUT 2 TO 5 DEGREES ON AVERAGE OVER YESTERDAYS HIGHS, AND THE
ZONAL FLOW SHOULD CONTINUE TO ALLOW FOR SOME HIGH ELEVATION
SHOWERS, EVEN SOME SNOW AS THE SNOW LEVELS DROP TO AROUND 5000
FT AGL TONIGHT. FRIDAY WILL BE A LITTLE LESS WARM WITH MORE
CLOUD COVER TO CONTEND WITH IN ADVANCE OF A WEAK SYSTEM THAT
WILL PLACE A LOW AMPLITUDE TROUGH OVER THE AREA SEEN IN THE
ENSEMBLES AROUND SATURDAY. THE TROUGH WILL BECOME MORE AMPLIFIED
BY DAY 4 (SUNDAY INTO MONDAY) LEAVING THE PDT FORECAST AREA IN
SOME SEMBLANCE OF AN UPPER NORTHWEST FLOW PATTERN WITH MOUNTAIN
SHOWERS AND SEASONAL 60S AND 70S FOR AFTERNOON HIGHS TO START
THE WEEK.
AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY/
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD. THE MAIN
CONCERN REMAINS GUSTY WINDS, WHICH WILL CONTINUE AROUND 25 KTS
THROUGH THE AFTERNOON BEFORE SUBSIDING A BIT DURING THE EVENING
IN MOST AREAS.
FIRE WEATHER
DRY LIGHTNING ON SATURDAY IS POSSIBLE OVER THE MOUNTAIN ZONES.
FIRE WEATHER RISK DUE TO LOW RH AND STRONG WINDS IS LIMITED
OVER THE NEXT 7 DAYS. DRIER CONDITIONS DEVELOP MONDAY THROUGH
WEDNESDAY AS RELATIVE HUMIDITY OF 25% JUMPS TO 80 PERCENT ACROSS
CENTRAL OREGON AND THE OCHOCO JOHN DAY HIGHLANDS MONDAY AND
MAXIMIZING BY WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON OVER A MUCH BROADER AREA WHEN
TEMPERATURES CLIMB BACK TO THE UPPER 70S TO AROUND 80 DEGREES.
HYDROLOGY
THE NACHES RIVER WILL BE RUNNING JUST ABOVE ACTION STAGE OVER
THE NEXT 24 HOURS OR SO, IN RESPONSE TO RUNOFF FROM RAINS THAT
FELL TUESDAY NIGHT. CURRENT FORECAST HYDROGRAPHS HAVE THE RIVER
PEAKING AT 16.27 FT LATE THIS MORNING AND FALLING BELOW ACTION
STAGE (16 FT) BY 5 AM FRIDAY.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
PDT 68 41 64 39 / 0 0 0 10
ALW 67 45 64 43 / 0 0 0 10
PSC 73 45 68 42 / 0 0 0 0
YKM 71 39 66 36 / 0 0 0 0
HRI 70 44 66 41 / 0 0 0 0
ELN 62 36 57 32 / 0 10 0 20
RDM 70 33 65 32 / 0 0 0 10
LGD 67 39 64 38 / 0 0 0 10
GCD 72 36 67 36 / 0 0 0 0
DLS 69 46 65 43 / 0 0 0 50
PDT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
WA...NONE.
OR...NONE.
UPDATE...99
DISCUSSION...71
AVIATION...77
FIRE WEATHER...71
HYDROLOGY...71
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