896
FXUS66 KPDT 132319
AFDPDT
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PENDLETON OR
418 PM PDT MON JUL 13 2026
.UPDATED AVIATION DISCUSSION.
KEY MESSAGES
- CHANCES OF ISOLATED TO SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS TOMORROW
THROUGH MIDWEEK. SOME DYNAMICS A BIT UNCERTAIN WITH MODELS
STRUGGLING WITH THE OFFSHORE LOW.
- CLIMATOLOGICALLY NORMAL DRYNESS THROUGH THE REGION WITH LIGHT
TO SLIGHTLY ELEVATED WINDS THROUGH THE WEEK.
DISCUSSION
SATELLITE SHOWS A TRAIL OF MID TO UPPER LEVEL CLOUDS OVER THE
EASTERN MOUNTAINS WITH LIGHT RETURNS ON RADAR. CONDITIONS WILL
CONTINUE TO CLEAR OUT OVERNIGHT WITH THE ABSENCE OF A LIFTING
MECHANISM TO STREAMLINE PRECIPITATION THROUGH THE EARLY MORNING
HOURS. THROUGH THE NEXT FEW DAYS, GUIDANCE IS HAVING TROUBLE
(NAMELY THE ECMWF VS GFS VS GEPS ENSEMBLE MEMBERS) HOW THE LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL BEHAVE THROUGH ITS LIFE-CYCLE, GIVING LESS
CONFIDENCE WITH THE FORECAST THIS WEEK. THE EUROPEAN MODEL
SOLUTIONS LIKE TO BE MORE AGGRESSIVE WITH PUSHING THE LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM ON-SHORE, BRINGING WETTER AND COOLER CONDITIONS.
THE GFS, ON THE OTHER HAND, BRINGS THE OPPOSITE SOLUTION OF
KEEPING THE LOW MOSTLY OFF-SHORE AND NOT ALLOW THE FORCING
MECHANISM TO INITIATE MORE WIDESPREAD RAIN SHOWERS AND ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS.
LOOKING AT LREF CLUSTERS, 64% OF THE MEMBERS (WHICH ARE
NOTABLY SKEWED TOWARDS THE EUROPEAN MODEL) BRING THE LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM CLOSER TO SHORE BY TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON, INITIATING SLIGHT CHANCES (10-30%) OF THUNDERSTORMS
ACROSS CENTRAL OREGON AND THE SOUTHERN BLUES. FIRE WEATHER
CONCERNS CAN MANIFEST WITH THE POTENTIAL OF SOME DRY
THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING. CURRENT PWAT VALUES IN THE
THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT REGION HOVER BETWEEN 0.8-1.4 INCHES,
DEVELOPING MOSTLY WETTER THUNDERSTORMS (40-70% CONFIDENCE) WITH
ISOLATED AREAS OF DRY STORMS POSSIBLE. MODEL GUIDANCE
COMPLETELY DIVERGES BY LATE THURSDAY AFTERNOON WITH ONLY 41% OF
CLUSTERS ALREADY BRINGING THE LOW ON-SHORE, BRINGING A COOLER
AND WETTER PATTERN WHILE THE REMAINING KEEP THE SYSTEM OFF-
SHORE.
AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z WEDNESDAY/
VFR CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST AT ALL SITES FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS.
THERE IS LOW CONFIDENCE (30% OR LESS) IN SMOKE FROM AREA WILDFIRES
AFFECTING CIGS/VSBYS AT BDN/RDM SUCH THAT SUB-VFR CONDITIONS ARE
OBSERVED.
WINDS WILL BE PREDOMINANTLY DIURNALLY/TERRAIN-DRIVEN, GUSTY DURING
THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS TODAY, ESPECIALLY AT DLS/RDM/BDN.
AN AREA OF HIGH-BASED SHOWERS MAY DEVELOP OVERNIGHT INTO TUESDAY
ACROSS EASTERN OREGON AND SOUTH-CENTRAL TO SOUTHEAST WASHINGTON, BUT
CONFIDENCE IS LOW (10% OR LESS) IN ANY SHOWERS PRODUCING MEASURABLE
PRECIPITATION AT TAF SITES, SO LEFT MENTION OUT OF THE 00Z TAFS.
THERE IS A SLIGHT CHANCE (20%) OF ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
DEVELOPING BETWEEN 21Z TUE AND 00Z WED IN THE VICINITY OF
BDN/RDM.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
PDT 62 93 62 94 / 0 0 10 10
ALW 66 95 66 96 / 0 0 10 10
PSC 62 97 63 98 / 0 0 0 10
YKM 62 98 64 97 / 0 0 0 10
HRI 64 97 66 97 / 0 0 10 10
ELN 59 95 62 93 / 0 0 0 10
RDM 56 92 57 90 / 0 0 40 20
LGD 63 91 61 93 / 0 20 20 10
GCD 61 92 59 92 / 0 20 40 10
DLS 63 97 66 96 / 0 0 10 10
PDT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
WA...NONE.
OR...NONE.
DISCUSSION...95
AVIATION...86
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