811
FXUS66 KPDT 131722
AFDPDT
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PENDLETON OR
1022 AM PDT TUE OCT 13 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- WARMING AND DRYING TREND THROUGHOUT THE WEEK
- PATTERN CHANGE THIS WEEKEND BRINGING POTENTIAL FOR LIGHT
PRECIPITATION
DISCUSSION
A CUTOFF LOW OVER NEVADA SHOWN ON THE MIDLEVEL WATER VAPOR IS
EXPECTED TO DIG SOUTH AND TRANSLATE EAST. WRAPPED AROUND THIS
LOW REMAINS A POCKET OF DRY SINKING AIR WHICH IS WHAT IS
PREVENTING CLOUDS OVER THE REGION. OVER THE PACIFIC, A HIGH
PRESSURE SYSTEM IS BUILDING FORCING THE AMPLIFICATION OF THE
THE RIDGE UPSTREAM FROM THE CWA.
THIS WEEK THE REGION IS EXPECTED TO WARM UP LOWERING THE
CHANCES FOR SUBFREEZING TEMPERATURES. WEDNESDAY THE SUBFREEZING
PROBABILITIES ARE LIMITED TO THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS ALONG THE
BLUE MOUNTAINS INTO THE JOHN DAY HIGHLANDS. THE WEDNESDAY
SUBFREEZING TEMPERATURES PROBABILITIES RANGE FROM 30% TO 75%.
THURSDAY OVERNIGHT LOWS THOUGH THE REGION REMAIN ABOVE FREEZING,
BUT SOME ISOLATED CASES IN THE LOW VALLEYS SUCH AS SENECA AND
THE FOOTHILLS OF THE BLUE MOUNTAINS COULD SEE SUB-FREEZING
TEMPERATURES STILL. MOVING TOWARD THE WEEKEND, THE WARMING TREND
CONTINUES UNDER THE RIDGE, BRINGING THE REGION ABOVE
CLIMATOLOGICAL NORMALS BY 6-15 DEGREES. THE AREA SHOULD REMAIN
DRY UNTIL NEXT WEEK. BOX AND WHISKERS HAVE A A WIDER ENVELOPE
WITH THE 25TH AND 75TH HAVING A WIDER VARIANCE IN THE
TEMPERATURES.
NEXT WEEK CLUSTERS ARE SUGGESTING A TIMING AND AMPLITUDE
DIFFERENCES IN ALL THE CLUSTERS. CLUSTERS 3 AND 4 HAVE THE
RIDGE BEING STRONGER IN AMPLITUDE AND LINGERING OVER THE REGION
WHILE SHOWING LOWER QPF VALUES. CLUSTERS 2 AND 3 ARE A DIPOLE
PATTERN SUGGESTING A TIMING ISSUE WITH THE TROUGH MOVING
THROUGH. CLUSTER 1 SUGGESTS THE TROUGH WILL LIKELY BE STRONGER
COINCIDING WITH HIGHER QPF VALUES.
AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY/
VFR CONDITIONS TO PREVAIL THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. WINDS ARE
LIGHT WITH A DIURNAL WIND PATTERN.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
PDT 64 36 68 37 / 0 0 0 0
ALW 65 41 69 41 / 0 0 0 0
PSC 67 34 71 36 / 0 0 0 0
YKM 65 39 70 41 / 0 0 0 0
HRI 66 36 70 38 / 0 0 0 0
ELN 62 35 67 37 / 0 0 0 0
RDM 66 27 69 30 / 0 0 0 0
LGD 63 31 68 34 / 0 0 0 0
GCD 64 33 70 37 / 0 0 0 0
DLS 70 41 74 45 / 0 0 0 0
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
PDT 64 34 68 36 / 0 0 0 0
ALW 65 41 68 39 / 0 0 0 0
PSC 67 36 70 37 / 0 0 0 0
YKM 65 42 70 43 / 0 0 10 0
HRI 66 38 69 39 / 0 0 0 0
ELN 62 38 67 38 / 0 0 10 0
RDM 66 31 69 33 / 0 0 0 0
LGD 63 33 67 35 / 0 0 0 0
GCD 64 32 68 35 / 0 0 0 0
DLS 70 43 74 46 / 0 0 0 0
PDT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
WA...NONE.
OR...NONE.
DISCUSSION...18/90
AVIATION...07
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