046
FXUS66 KPDT 111202
AFDPDT
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PENDLETON OR
502 AM PDT SAT APR 11 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- AREAS OF THUNDERSTORMS TODAY THROUGH CENTRAL OR AND FOOTHILLS
OF THE BLUES.
- COOLER TREND CONTINUES THROUGH THE WEEK.
- RETURN OF WETTER PATTERN THROUGH THE SECOND HALF OF THE WEEK.
DISCUSSION
CURRENT RADAR SHOWS SHOWER ACTIVITY FROM THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
CONTINUING TO BRING POP-UP SHOWERS ACROSS THE REGION. A FEW
HEAVY SHOWERS ARE DEVELOPING NEAR THE KITTITAS REGION
CONTINUING TO DRIFT NORTH, WHICH WILL EVENTUALLY HEAD OVER INTO
ELLENSBURG. AS THE TROUGH CONTINUE TO DRIFT EASTWARD, SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES WILL CONTINUE TO BE MEDIUM TO HIGH
(40-70%) WHILE THUNDERSTORM CHANCE (15-30%) DEVELOP ALONG
CENTRAL OREGON THROUGH THE JOHN DAY HIGHLAND AND FOOTHILLS OF
THE BLUES. NBM DEVELOPS 250-350 J/KG OF CAPE BY THE EARLY
AFTERNOON SATURDAY WITH HREF PAINTBALLS SUPPORTING T-STORM
DEVELOPMENT IN THE LATE MORNING THROUGH AFTERNOON HOURS. HOW
WIDESPREAD CONVECTION INITIATION HAPPENS REMAINS UNCERTAIN DUE
TO THE GENERAL OVERCAST CONDITIONS THAT WILL PROHIBIT THE
CONVECTION TO ITS FULLEST POTENTIAL. IN AREAS OF MORE GENERAL
BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS THROUGH THE DAY WILL SEE THE GREATEST
CHANCE OF T-STORM DEVELOPMENT AND WIDESPREAD ERRATIC WIND GUSTS
FROM EMBEDDED STORMS. REGARDLESS, HEAVY RAIN IS EXPECTED FOR
AREAS ACROSS CENTRAL OREGON AND THE JOHN DAY HIGHLANDS AND, TO A
SLIGHTLY LESSER EXTENT, THE FOOTHILLS OF THE BLUES. THE
STRONGEST STORMS WILL SEE A SLIGHT CHANCE (15-25% CHANCE) OF PEA
SIZE HAIL FALLING.
ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT AFTER THIS TROUGH
DEPARTURE, THE UPPER LEVEL PATTERN WILL TURN MORE ZONAL TUESDAY
TO GIVE US DRY WEATHER BEFORE BECOMING MORE UNSETTLED THE
FOLLOWING DAY ON WEDNESDAY. GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT
A SECONDARY TROUGH DROPS FROM THE BRITISH COLUMBIA/GULF OF
ALASKA REGION, BRINGING WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION CHANCES ACROSS
THE REGION. THINGS BECOME A BIT UNCERTAIN GOING INTO DAY 5 ON
WEDNESDAY REGARDING SNOWFALL AMOUNTS IN THE CASCADE AND NORTHERN
BLUE MOUNTAIN REGION. ABOUT 30% OF MEMBERS BRINGS A MUCH WEAKER
TROUGH, WHILE 49% DEVELOPS A STRONGER TROUGH WITH A WETTER
SOLUTION THAT WOULD BRING 4-7 INCHES OF SNOW ACROSS THE
CASCADES AND WALLOWAS WHICH WOULD BRING WINTER WEATHER
HIGHLIGHTS. REGARDLESS, THERE IS STILL PLENTY OF TIME TO
MONITOR FOR TRENDS IN THE FORECAST AND SEE IF WINTER HIGHLIGHTS
ARE WARRANTED.
AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SUNDAY/
AREAS OF POP UP SHOWERS CONTINUE OVERNIGHT THAT WILL EVENTUALLY
IMPACT ALL SITES THROUGH SUNDAY. PROB30 CHANCES OF
THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE, ESPECIALLY SITES IN CENTRAL OR AND SITES
ALONG THE FOOTHILLS OF THE BLUES. ALTHOUGH THERE'S NO SUB-VFR
CONDITIONS EXPECTED IN DOMINANT LINES, THE PROB30 CHANCES
INCLUDE TEMPORARY MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS IN THE HEAVIEST STORMS
THAT WILL DEVELOP.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
PDT 65 42 60 42 / 50 30 70 70
ALW 65 46 60 45 / 70 30 80 80
PSC 71 44 66 46 / 40 10 40 50
YKM 67 42 68 44 / 40 10 20 30
HRI 69 44 63 45 / 40 10 50 60
ELN 60 39 63 42 / 50 10 20 20
RDM 61 37 54 34 / 70 70 60 50
LGD 62 41 55 39 / 90 60 100 90
GCD 61 40 52 37 / 70 70 100 80
DLS 67 47 64 46 / 60 30 40 40
PDT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
WA...NONE.
OR...NONE.
DISCUSSION...95
AVIATION...95
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