550
FXUS66 KPQR 070439
AFDPQR
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PORTLAND OR
939 PM PDT WED MAY 6 2026
UPDATED AVIATION DISCUSSION.
SYNOPSIS
HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT CONTINUES TO DOMINATE THE
PATTERN THIS AFTERNOON, SUPPORTING ANOTHER STRETCH OF RELATIVELY
WARM AND DRY WEATHER INTO NEXT WEEK. THE DAILY CONCERN/ISSUE
WILL BE THE MARINE LAYER: LOW CLOUDS EXPAND INLAND LATE NIGHT
AND EARLY MORNING (WITH OCCASIONAL COASTAL MIST/DRIZZLE), THEN
RETREAT TOWARD THE COAST DURING THE AFTERNOON. HOW QUICKLY THAT
HAPPENS WILL CONTINUE TO DRIVE DAY TO DAY TEMPERATURE SWINGS.
THE ONLY NOTABLE INTERRUPTION ARRIVES FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY AS A
WEAK SHORTWAVE BRUSHES THE RIDGE, BRINGING A BRIEF COOL-DOWN AND
MORE CLOUD COVER. WARM, DRY CONDITIONS REBOUND QUICKLY FOR THE
WEEKEND AND PERSIST INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK, POSSIBLY TRENDING
WARMER TOWARDS THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.
DISCUSSION...NOW THROUGH WEDNESDAY
THIS LATE AFTERNOON'S
SETUP IS STILL "RIDGE-DRIVEN" AT THE LARGE SCALE, BUT OUR
SENSIBLE WEATHER IS BEING CONTROLLED MORE BY LOW-LEVEL MARINE
INFLUENCES. COASTAL AREAS REMAIN MOST PRONE TO PERIODS OF
STRATUS, AND WHILE ANY DRIZZLE IS GENERALLY CONFINED TO LATE
NIGHT/EARLY MORNING NEAR THE BEACHES, IT CAN'T BE RULED OUT IN
THAT WINDOW. INLAND, THE PRIMARY IMPACT IS TEMPERATURE: SLOWER
MORNING CLEARING GENERALLY MEANS A COOLER AFTERNOON, WHILE
EARLIER SUNSHINE ALLOWS HIGHS TO RUN WARMER.
FROM TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY, EXPECT A STEADY RHYTHM OF
OVERNIGHT INLAND STRATUS PUSHES THROUGH COASTAL GAPS
(OCCASIONALLY REACHING INTO PORTIONS OF THE WILLAMETTE VALLEY),
FOLLOWED BY DAYTIME CLEARING BACK TOWARD THE COAST. TEMPERATURES
WILL STAY NEAR TO ABOVE SEASONAL AVERAGES EVEN ON THE
"CLOUDIER" DAYS, WITH COASTAL AND HIGHER TERRAIN HIGHS MAINLY IN
THE 60S AND INLAND VALLEYS MOSTLY IN THE LOW 70S. AFTERNOON
WEST WINDS WILL ALSO CONTINUE, WITH THE CENTRAL COLUMBIA RIVER
GORGE AND NEARBY EXPOSED AREAS SEEING PERIODIC GUSTS AROUND
25-30 MPH INTO THE EVENING.
FRIDAY INTO FRIDAY NIGHT IS THE ONLY ORGANIZED FEATURE TO NOTE.
GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO WEAKEN THE SHORTWAVE THAT RIDES OVER THE
RIDGE, AND THAT KEEPS IMPACTS LIMITED TO A MODEST INCREASE IN
CLOUD COVER DURING THE MORNING AND A SLIGHT DIP IN TEMPERATURES.
RAIN CHANCES HAVE DWINDLED FURTHER AND ARE NOW AROUND 5% OR
LESS EVEN ALONG THE COAST/COASTAL TERRAIN AND THE NORTH
CASCADES. AT THIS POINT, MEASURABLE PRECIPITATION IS NOT
EXPECTED ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA.
BY SATURDAY AND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK, RIDGING QUICKLY REBUILDS.
THAT SUPPORTS A RETURN TO A MOSTLY SUNNY, WARMER PATTERN WITH
THE SAME DAY-NIGHT MARINE CLOUD CYCLE CONTINUING NEAR THE COAST.
TEMPERATURES LOOK SEASONABLY PLEASANT: 60S ALONG THE COAST AND
HIGHER TERRAIN, AND 70S TO NEAR 80 IN INLAND VALLEYS, INCLUDING
A FAVORABLE SETUP FOR A WARM AND DRY MOTHER'S DAY. EARLY NEXT
WEEK, CONFIDENCE LOWERS REGARDING EXACT AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES.
CURRENT GUIDANCE SUGGESTS AFTERNOON HIGH TEMPERATURES ANYWHERE
BETWEEN 70 AND 88 DEGREES ON TUESDAY AND 70 TO 93 DEGREES ON
WEDNESDAY. THIS WIDE RANGE OF AFTERNOON HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL
LIKELY NARROW TOWARDS THE WEEKEND AS FUTURE MODEL RUNS TRY TO
RESOLVE WHETHER THE NEXT PATTERN WILL BE ANOTHER RIDGE OR A
TROUGH. CURRENT ENSEMBLE CLUSTERS REMAIN IN POOR AGREEMENT, WITH
EACH ENSEMBLE CLUSTER SUGGESTING A DIFFERENT STORY: GEFS SHOWING
AN APPROACHING TROUGH, ENS SHOWING A WEAKENING RIDGE, GEPS
SHOWING A RIDGE LINGERING OVER THE PNW.
~12
AVIATION
ONSHORE FLOW CONTINUES, THOUGH FLOW HAS TURNED MORE
NORTH TO NORTHWESTERLY INSTEAD OF SOUTH TO WESTERLY. MARINE STRATUS
REMAINS FIRMLY IN PLACE ALONG THE COAST INTO THURSDAY MORNING WITH
MVFR CIGS EXPECTED. THE MARINE PUSH IS LESS INTENSE UNDER THE NORTH
TO NORTHWEST FLOW THAN PREVIOUS NIGHTS, LEADING TO MORE SHALLOW
STRATUS. MARINE STRATUS IS BUILDING AGAIN INLAND, BUT CIGS ARE
MOSTLY HOVERING RIGHT AROUND THE MVFR 3000 FT THRESHOLD. EXPECTING
CIGS AT MOST TERMINALS TO HOVER AROUND 3000-3500 FT FOR A NUMBER OF
HOURS BEFORE LOWERING BELOW 3000 FT AROUND 08-12Z. HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS OVER THE REGION ON THURSDAY, SHEPHERDING IN A DRYER AIRMASS,
AND THE PERSISTENT MARINE STRATUS IS FINALLY EXPECTED TO FULLY SCOUR
OUT BOTH INLAND AND ALONG THE COAST. EXPECTING INLAND LOCATIONS TO
IMPROVE TO VFR BY 14-17Z THU WITH THE COAST IMPROVING BY 17-20Z THU,
REMAINING VFR THROUGH THE REST OF THE 06Z TAF PERIOD.
KPDX AND APPROACHES...OVERCAST CEILINGS ARE HOVERING AROUND 3100-
3500 FT DUE TO ANOTHER NIGHT OF MARINE STRATUS INTRUSION. HOWEVER,
CONFIDENCE IS LOWER REGARDING HOW CEILING HEIGHTS WILL CONTINUE TO
TREND INTO THURSDAY MORNING, WHICH COULD RANGE ANYWHERE FROM 2000 TO
4000 FT. CURRENTLY THERE IS A 30-40% CHANCE THAT CEILINGS WIND UP
FALLING TO 3000 FT OR LOWER, INCREASING TO 40-55% FROM 14-17Z THU.
WINDS REMAIN LIGHT AND NORTHWESTERLY. -03
MARINE
STRENGTHENING HIGH PRESSURE OFFSHORE WILL BRING
INCREASING NORTHERLY WINDS THIS EVENING, WHILE A BROADER ONSHORE
FLOW REGIME FAVORS CONTINUED MARINE OVERCAST WHICH THICKENS AND
LOWERS OVERNIGHT BEFORE LIFTING AND BACKING OFFSHORE EACH DAY
THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK. THE RELATIVELY STRONGER WINDS
THIS EVENING ALONG WITH A BUILDING NORTHWEST SWELL WILL PUSH SEAS
UP TO 7-9 FT BY TONIGHT, BUT A DOMINANT SWELL PERIOD OF 11-13
SECONDS SHOULD KEEP SEAS FROM BECOMING STEEP ENOUGH TO PRESENT A
HAZARD TO SMALL CRAFT. ISOLATED GUSTS MAY EXCEED 20 KT THROUGH
THIS EVENING BEYOND 30 NM.
AS NORTHERLY FLOW WEAKENS ON THURSDAY AND TURNS SOUTHERLY ON
FRIDAY AS A WEAK FRONT MOVES OVER THE COASTAL WATERS AND DECAYS,
SEAS WILL EASE BACK TO 4-7 FT. SOUTHERLY GUSTS MAY BRIEFLY
APPROACH 20 KT ON FRIDAY AFTERNOON BEFORE WEAKENING AGAIN
OVERNIGHT. CHANCES FOR RAIN ON FRIDAY HAVE NOW FALLEN TO BELOW 5%.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL RESTRENGTHEN OFFSHORE THIS WEEKEND INTO EARLY
NEXT WEEK, SUPPORTING A REINTENSIFICATION OF NORTHERLY WINDS.
CHANCES FOR WIDESPREAD GUSTS OF 20-30 KT GRADUALLY INCREASE EACH
DAY FROM SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY, WHILE SEAS CONTINUE AT 5-8 FT.
-23/36
PQR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
OR...NONE.
WA...NONE.
PZ...NONE.
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