013
FXUS66 KPQR 081232
AFDPQR
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PORTLAND OR
432 AM PST THU JAN 8 2026
SYNOPSIS
SCATTERED LOWLAND RAIN SHOWERS AND MOUNTAIN SNOW
SHOWERS CONTINUE TODAY. WINTER STORM WARNINGS REMAIN IN EFFECT
THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS THE CASCADES, WITH ADDITIONAL SNOW
ACCUMULATIONS OF 4 TO 9 INCHES. TRAVEL IMPACTS CONTINUE THROUGH
THE CASCADE PASSES TODAY. DRIER WEATHER RETURNS ON FRIDAY AS
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS. A WEAK FRONT WILL BRING CHANCES FOR LIGHT
RAIN OVER THE WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. DRIER AND RELATIVELY
WARMER CONDITIONS RETURN MID NEXT WEEK.
SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT
RADAR IMAGERY AS OF
EARLY THURSDAY MORNING DEPICTS SCATTERED POST-FRONTAL SHOWERS
ACROSS NORTHWEST OREGON AND SOUTHWEST WASHINGTON AS THE PREVIOUS
FRONT HAS NOW EXITED THE REGION. LOWLAND RAIN SHOWERS AND COAST
RANGE/CASCADE SNOW SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE TODAY AS WE REMAIN IN A
POST-FRONTAL ENVIRONMENT. WILL NOTE THAT THIS MORNING THERE IS
A 20-30% CHANCE THAT A HEAVY SHOWER BRINGS SNOW LEVELS DOWN TO
THE VALLEY FLOOR, RESULTING IN A BRIEF RAIN/SNOW MIX OR WET
SNOW. IF THIS OCCURS, EXPECT LITTLE TO NO SNOW ACCUMULATION WITH
MINIMAL TRAVEL IMPACTS GIVEN THE WARM GROUND TEMPERATURES AND
AIR TEMPERATURES IN THE MID 30S. ONCE TEMPERATURES WARM UP THIS
AFTERNOON, THE THREAT FOR LOWLAND RAIN/SNOW MIX GOES AWAY AND
SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS THE COAST RANGE TRANSITIONS TO RAIN SHOWERS.
THERE IS ALSO A 15-20% CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS ALONG THE COAST
THIS AFTERNOON AS INSTABILITY INCREASES DUE TO COLDER AIR
ALOFT. ANY PASSING THUNDERSTORMS MAY BRING LIGHTNING, HEAVY
RAIN, GUSTY OUTFLOW WINDS, AND/OR SMALL HAIL.
WINTER STORM WARNINGS REMAIN IN EFFECT ACROSS THE CASCADES
THROUGH 4 PM THIS AFTERNOON, WITH ADDITIONAL SNOW ACCUMULATIONS
OF 4-9 INCHES. TRAVEL THROUGH THE CASCADE PASSES CONTINUE TO BE
IMPACTED, SO MAKE SURE TO PACK AN EMERGENCY SUPPLY KIT AND REFER
TO ODOT/WSDOT FOR THE LATEST TRAVEL RESTRICTIONS.
DRY WEATHER RETURNS LATE TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY AS AN UPPER LEVEL
RIDGE BUILDS OVER THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST. AS HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS, THERE WILL BE INCREASING CLOUD BREAKS, ESPECIALLY
FURTHER SOUTH TOWARDS LANE COUNTY WHERE HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE
STRONGER. ANY CLEARING TONIGHT WILL FAVOR FROST DEVELOPMENT
ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN WILLAMETTE VALLEY, AS CHANCES
FOR FRIDAY MORNING LOWS BELOW 36 DEGREES F ARE AROUND 50-70%
BETWEEN CORVALLIS AND EUGENE. -10
LONG TERM...SATURDAY TO WEDNESDAY
MOSTLY DRY WEATHER
CONTINUES ON SATURDAY AS THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE AXIS PROGRESSES
EASTWARD OVER THE INTERIOR NORTHWEST/GREAT BASIN. HOWEVER, BY
SATURDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING, ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE IS IN AGREEMENT
THAT ANOTHER FRONT OVER THE NORTHEAST PACIFIC WILL APPROACH THE
PACIFIC NORTHWEST. THIS WILL RETURN CHANCES FOR LIGHT RAIN ALONG
THE COAST, HOWEVER, THIS FRONT STRUGGLES TO MOVE INLAND DUE TO
THE AFOREMENTIONED RIDGE KEEPING THE SYSTEM OFFSHORE. BY THE END
OF THE WEEKEND, RIDGING REMAINS IN PLACE OVER THE GREAT BASIN,
HOWEVER MOST ENSEMBLE MEMBERS (70-80%) SUGGEST PRECIPITATION
RIDING THE NORTHWESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE RIDGE WILL RETURN MORE
WIDESPREAD CHANCES FOR LIGHT RAIN ACROSS NORTHWEST OREGON AND
SOUTHWEST WASHINGTON. THIS TREND CONTINUES INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.
IT'S NOT UNTIL WEDNESDAY WHEN MOST ENSEMBLE MEMBERS AGREE ON
MORE AMPLIFIED RIDGING/500 MB HEIGHTS OVER US WHICH WOULD
RETURN PREDOMINATELY DRY CONDITIONS AND WARMER TEMPERATURES.
-10
AVIATION
RADAR IMAGERY AND TERMINAL OBSERVATIONS AS OF EARLY
THURSDAY MORNING DEPICTS SCATTERED POST-FRONTAL SHOWERS AND VFR
CONDITIONS. EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE
MORNING, THEN CIGS TREND MVFR AFTER 18Z THU. GUIDANCE SUGGESTS
A 40-60% CHANCE FOR MVFR CIGS FROM 18Z THU THROUGH THE END OF
THE TAF PERIOD. INCREASING INSTABILITY WILL IS ALSO BRING 15-20%
CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS ALONG THE COAST TODAY. ANY PASSING
THUNDERSTORMS MAY BRING LIGHTNING, HEAVY RAIN, GUSTY OUTFLOW
WINDS, AND/OR SMALL HAIL. HEAVY RAIN FROM THUNDERSTORMS COULD
BRIEFLY REDUCE VISIBILITIES TO 3-5SM. SHOWERS CONTINUE
THROUGHOUT THE DAY BUT WILL GRADUALLY DECREASE AFTER 06Z THU AS
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS. WINDS GENERALLY SOUTHWESTERLY AROUND 10 KT
OR LESS.
KPDX AND APPROACHES...VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH 18Z THU, WITH
CHANCES FOR MVFR CIGS INCREASING TO 40-60% AFTER 18Z THU.
SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS UNDER 10 KT THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. -10
MARINE
AS OF 4 AM THURSDAY MORNING, SEAS ARE PEAKING AROUND
20-23 FT AT 15 SEC. MEANWHILE, WEST-NORTHWESTERLY WINDS ARE
GRADUALLY DECREASING, AND WILL WEAKEN BELOW 20 KT BY THIS
AFTERNOON. SEAS ARE FORECAST TO SUBSIDE SLOWLY TODAY, FALLING TO
18-19 FT BY LATE MORNING/EARLY AFTERNOON, AND 15-16 FT BY THIS
EVENING. A HAZARDOUS SEAS WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT THROUGH 10
PM THIS EVENING FOR ALL WATERS, INCLUDING THE COLUMBIA RIVER
BAR. AFTERWARDS, A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WILL BE IN EFFECT FROM
10 PM THURSDAY TO 4 PM FRIDAY, MAINLY FOR SEAS OF 10-14 FT AT
14-15 SEC. SEAS FALL BELOW 10 FT FRIDAY EVENING.
ADDITIONAL SYSTEMS OVER THE WEEKEND WILL MAINTAIN BREEZY
SOUTHERLY WINDS ACROSS THE WATERS. CHANCES FOR FREQUENT, SMALL
CRAFT WIND GUSTS OF 25-30 KT ARE AROUND 60-80% SATURDAY-SUNDAY.
SEAS RE- BUILD THIS WEEKEND AS A WEST-SOUTHWESTERLY SWELL MOVES
IN. THERE IS ALSO A 60-80% CHANCE FOR SEAS EXCEEDING 13 FT
BEYOND 20 NM OFFSHORE BY SUNDAY. -10
BEACH HAZARDS
HIGH SURF CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH
THIS AFTERNOON AS A LONG-PERIOD NORTHWESTERLY SWELL ARRIVES,
BRINGING BREAKERS UP TO 25 FT WITHIN THE SURF ZONE. A HIGH SURF
ADVISORY HAS BEEN ISSUED TO COVER THIS THREAT. DESTRUCTIVE WAVES
MAY WASH OVER BEACHES, JETTIES, AND OTHER STRUCTURES
UNEXPECTEDLY. PEOPLE CAN BE SWEPT OFF ROCKS AND JETTIES AND
DROWN WHILE OBSERVING HIGH SURF. MINOR BEACH EROSION MAY DAMAGE
COASTAL PROPERTIES AND BUILDINGS. HIGHER THAN NORMAL WATER RUN-
UP IS EXPECTED ON BEACHES AND LOW-LYING SHORELINE.
ALTHOUGH HIGH SURF CONDITIONS EASE TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY, A HIGH
THREAT OF SNEAKER WAVES WILL REMAIN A THREAT FOR SEVERAL DAYS
THEREAFTER. WAVES MAY RUN FURTHER UP THE BEACH THAN NORMAL.
THESE WAVES CAN EASILY CATCH PEOPLE OFF GUARD. NEVER TURN YOUR
BACK TO THE OCEAN. -10
PQR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
OR...HIGH SURF ADVISORY UNTIL 4 PM PST THIS AFTERNOON FOR ORZ101>103.
WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 4 PM PST THIS AFTERNOON FOR
ORZ126>128.
WA...HIGH SURF ADVISORY UNTIL 4 PM PST THIS AFTERNOON FOR WAZ201.
WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 4 PM PST THIS AFTERNOON FOR WAZ211.
PZ...HAZARDOUS SEAS WARNING UNTIL 10 PM PST THIS EVENING FOR PZZ210-
251>253-271>273.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 10 PM THIS EVENING TO 4 PM PST FRIDAY
FOR PZZ210-251>253-271>273.
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/PORTLAND
INTERACT WITH US VIA SOCIAL MEDIA:
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X.COM/NWSPORTLAND
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