544
FXUS66 KPQR 102129
AFDPQR
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PORTLAND OR
129 PM PST TUE FEB 10 2026
SYNOPSIS
HIGH PRESSURE MAINTAINS DRY WEATHER THROUGH
THURSDAY WITH NIGHTLY CHANCES FOR FOG AND FROST IN INTERIOR
VALLEYS AND GUSTY EAST WINDS THROUGH THE COLUMBIA RIVER GORGE.
THERE IS MODERATE TO HIGH CONFIDENCE IN A RETURN TO COOLER AND
WETTER WEATHER THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY
AN UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE OF
HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE AREA WILL MAINTAIN DRY WEATHER ACROSS
NORTHWEST OREGON AND SOUTHWEST WASHINGTON THROUGH THURSDAY. AN
EXCEPTION WOULD BE THE LINN AND LANE COUNTY CASCADES, WHERE
MOISTURE FROM AN LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVING INTO NORTHERN
CALIFORNIA WILL RESULT IN A 10-25% CHANCE FOR LIGHT SNOW
SHOWERS.
SATELLITE IMAGERY AS OF EARLY TUESDAY AFTERNOON SHOW MOST SUNNY
CONDITIONS EXCEPT FOR THE SOUTHERN WILLAMETTE VALLEY WHERE LOW
STRATUS IS LINGERING. STRATUS ACROSS THE CENTRAL VALLEY IS NOW
DISSIPATING, SO THE SOUTHERN VALLEY SHOULD BEGIN TO CLEAR UP BY
2-4 PM. WINDS GENERALLY REMAIN LIGHT AND NORTHERLY IN THE
WILLAMETTE VALLEY EXCEPT FOR THE COLUMBIA RIVER GORGE, WHERE
KTTD-KDLS PRESSURE GRADIENTS OF -5 MB ARE RESULTING IN BREEZY
EASTERLY WINDS WITH GUSTS UP TO 25-35 MPH IN THE FAR EASTERN
PORTLAND METRO. A WEAK THERMAL TROUGH IS ALSO LEADING TO LIGHT
OFFSHORE FLOW ALONG THE COAST. ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THAT
OFFSHORE FLOW PRESSURE GRADIENTS ACROSS THE AREA WILL CONTINUE
THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT.
CLEAR SKIES AND CALM WINDS EACH NIGHT BEGINNING TONIGHT WILL
FAVOR FOG AND FROST DEVELOPMENT ACROSS INTERIOR VALLEYS. FROST
IS MORE LIKELY TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT AS TEMPERATURES ARE
FORECAST TO FALL NEAR OR SLIGHTLY BELOW FREEZING. THE HIGHEST
CHANCES FOR FROST WILL BE THE SOUTHERN WILLAMETTE VALLEY, WEST-
CENTRAL WILLAMETTE VALLEY, UPPER HOOD RIVER VALLEY, AND NORTHERN
CLARK COUNTY LOWLANDS AS THESE LOCATIONS HAVE A 60-80% CHANCE
FOR MORNING LOW TEMPERATURES FALLING BELOW 32 DEGREES F EACH
NIGHT. IF FOG ENDS UP DEVELOPING RATHER THAN FROST, MAKE SURE TO
USE EXTRA CAUTION IF YOU'LL BE COMMUTING IN THE MORNING. -10
LONG TERM...THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY
LATE IN THE WEEK,
ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE REMAINS CONFIDENT THAT RIDGING WILL SHIFT
EAST OF THE ROCKIES AND BROAD UPPER-LEVEL TROUGHING WILL DIP
DOWN FROM THE GULF OF ALASKA AND SET UP OVER THE WESTERN CONUS.
AN INITIAL FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL MARK THIS PATTERN SHIFT WITH
RAIN RETURNING AS EARLY AS THURSDAY NIGHT TO THE COAST AND
SPREADING INLAND THROUGH FRIDAY.
CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION THEN LINGER THROUGH THE WEEKEND AS THE
FORECAST AREA REMAINS WITHIN THE UPPER TROUGH. THERE DOES REMAIN
SOME UNCERTAINTY IN THE DETAILS OF THE FLOW ALOFT, HOWEVER,
WITH A CLUSTER OF ENSEMBLE MEMBERS ARE FAVORING A SCENARIO WHERE
THE UPPER TROUGH PINCHES OFF INTO A CLOSED LOW OVER CALIFORNIA.
WHILE THIS SCENARIO WOULD LEAVE THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST DRIER
THROUGH THE WEEKEND, THOSE MEMBERS STILL SUGGEST INCREASED
CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION EARLY NEXT WEEK.
COOLER TEMPERATURES WITHIN THE UPPER TROUGH WILL BRING SNOW
LEVELS BACK DOWN TO 3000-4000 FT, ALLOWING FOR ACCUMULATING
SNOW AT THE CASCADE PASSES. GIVEN UNCERTAINTY IN THE PATTERN
ALOFT THOUGH, CONFIDENCE REMAINS LOW IN FORECAST SNOW AMOUNTS.
THERE IS A 45-55% CHANCE OF 6 INCHES OR MORE OF SNOW FROM 4 AM
SATURDAY THROUGH 4 AM TUESDAY, AND 10-25% CHANCES OF 1 FOOT
OR MORE SNOW OVER THE SAME PERIOD.
THERE IS ADDITIONALLY A 15-35% CHANCE THAT SNOW LEVELS FALL
BELOW 1000 FT EACH NIGHT FROM SATURDAY NIGHT TO MONDAY NIGHT,
WHICH COULD BRING LIGHT SNOW DOWN TO THE CASCADE FOOTHILLS OR
EVEN THE WEST HILLS. THE LATEST GUIDANCE HAS ALSO BROUGHT
CHANCES FOR SNOW REACHING THE VALLEY FLOOR TO 0-1% FOR SATURDAY
NIGHT AND SUNDAY NIGHT AND 2-5% FOR THE MONDAY NIGHT AS FORECAST
PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS HAVE DECREASED. EVEN IF SNOW WERE TO FALL
DOWN TO THE FALL TO THE VALLEY FLOOR DURING THESE NIGHTS,
MARGINAL TEMPERATURES WOULD SEVERELY LIMIT ANY ACCUMULATIONS,
AND THUS IMPACTS ARE UNLIKELY. -10/36
AVIATION
AT 21Z TUESDAY, SKIES WERE MOSTLY CLEAR ACROSS
SOUTHWEST WA AND NORTHWEST OR ASIDE FROM A FEW THIN HIGH CLOUDS.
ONE EXCEPTION IS THE SOUTHERN WILLAMETTE VALLEY, INCLUDING KEUG,
WHERE LOW STRATUS PERSISTS DUE TO PERSISTENT NORTHERLY UPSLOPE
WINDS. OVERALL CONFIDENCE IS LOW REGARDING EXACTLY WHEN LOW
STRATUS WILL CLEAR OUT AT KEUG, IF AT ALL. THAT BEING SAID,
CURRENT SATELLITE IMAGERY DOES SHOW THIS STRATUS DECK BEGINNING
TO ERODE FROM THE NORTH. IF THE CURRENT PROGRESSION CONTINUES AS
IS, EXPECT CLEARING AT KEUG AROUND BY 22-23Z TUESDAY. EVEN IF
CLEARING DOES OCCUR, THERE IS A NOW A 60-65% CHANCE LOW STRATUS
AND/OR FOG WILL REDEVELOP AT KEUG BY 06Z WEDNESDAY.
FOR ALL OTHER TERMINALS, EXPECT VFR FLIGHT CONDITIONS TO MOST
LIKELY CONTINUE THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD WITH OFFSHORE WINDS. WIND
SPEEDS WILL GENERALLY STAY AROUND 5-10 KT OR LESS, EXCEPT AT
KTTD WHERE OFFSHORE WINDS ARE STRONGEST WITH EASTERLY WIND
GUSTS UP TO 25 KT. PROBABILITIES FOR FOG TONIGHT ARE BELOW 10%
AT ALL TAF SITES, EXCEPT AT KEUG AS MENTIONED ABOVE.
KPDX AND APPROACHES...EXPECT MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES TO CONTINUE
THROUGH 00Z THURSDAY WITH RELATIVELY LIGHT WINDS UNDER 10 KT.
THERE IS A 5% CHANCE FOR FOG DEVELOPMENT TONIGHT. FROST IS MUCH
MORE LIKELY TO OCCUR THAN FOG AS TEMPERATURES DIP INTO THE MID
30S. -23
MARINE
NORTHERLY WINDS ARE BEGINNING TO INCREASE OVER THE
COASTAL WATERS AS A THERMAL TROUGH BUILDS NORTHWARD UP THE COAST.
STILL EXPECTING WIND GUSTS UP TO 25 KT FROM LATE TUESDAY
AFTERNOON THROUGH WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON BEYOND 10-20 NM
OFFSHORE, EXCEPT UP TO 30 KT BEYOND 40-50 NM OFFSHORE.
CONFIDENCE HAS INCREASED WIND GUSTS WILL REMAIN BELOW 20 KT OVER
THE INNER WATERS OUT TO 10 NM DUE TO AN OFFSHORE COMPONENT TO
THE WIND DIRECTION. THAT BEING SAID, LOCALLY BREEZIER WINDS ARE
LIKELY DOWNWIND OF GAPS IN THE COASTAL TERRAIN. SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORIES REMAIN IN EFFECT OVER THE OUTER WATERS THROUGH 7 PM
PST WEDNESDAY, EXCEPT THROUGH 10 AM PST WEDNESDAY FOR THE
NORTHERN OUTER WATERS (PZZ271).
SEAS ARE EXPECTED TO RANGE BETWEEN 6 AND 9 FEET THROUGH THURSDAY
WHILE WINDS BECOME WESTERLY THURSDAY AFTERNOON, ALBEIT
RELATIVELY WEAK IN STRENGTH. WINDS THEN BECOME SOUTHERLY
THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY AHEAD OF A FRONTAL PASSAGE, BUT ARE
NOT EXPECTED TO EXCEED 15 KT. DESPITE WINDS REMAINING WEAK, A
LONG PERIOD WESTERLY SWELL IS SET TO ARRIVE THURSDAY NIGHT INTO
FRIDAY. THIS WILL RAPIDLY PUSH SEAS UP TO 13-16 FT BY EARLY
FRIDAY MORNING. THERE IS A 10% CHANCE SEAS WILL PEAK AS HIGH AS
17-18 FT, WHICH REPRESENTS THE WORST CASE SCENARIO. SEAS
GRADUALLY DECREASE LATE FRIDAY INTO THE WEEKEND, HOVERING CLOSE
TO 9-10 FT SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY. -23
BEACH HAZARDS
A HIGH THREAT FOR SNEAKER WAVES IS LIKELY
FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY EVENING DUE TO A LONG PERIOD WESTERLY
SWELL. WAVES CAN RUN UP SIGNIFICANTLY FARTHER ON A BEACH THAN
NORMAL, INCLUDING OVER ROCKS AND JETTIES. SNEAKER WAVES CAN
SUDDENLY KNOCK PEOPLE OFF OF THEIR FEET AND QUICKLY PULL THEM
INTO THE FRIGID OCEAN WHICH MAY LEAD TO SERIOUS INJURY OR
DROWNING. CAUTION SHOULD BE USED WHEN IN OR NEAR THE WATER,
ESPECIALLY THOSE WHO WILL BE RAZOR CLAMMING. KEEP CHILDREN AND
PETS AWAY FROM THE SURF ZONE. KEEP OFF OF JETTIES, ROCKS AND
LOGS NEAR THE SURF ZONE. IF YOU SEE SOMEONE SWEPT INTO THE SEA
DO NOT SWIM IN AFTER THEM. CALL 911 AND KEEP AN EYE ON THEM
UNTIL HELP ARRIVES. -10
PQR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
OR...NONE.
WA...NONE.
PZ...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 4 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 10 AM PST
WEDNESDAY FOR PZZ271.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM PST WEDNESDAY FOR PZZ272-273.
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/PORTLAND
INTERACT WITH US VIA SOCIAL MEDIA:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSPORTLAND
X.COM/NWSPORTLAND
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