014
FXUS66 KPQR 040548
AFDPQR
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PORTLAND OR
1048 PM PDT SUN MAY 3 2026
UPDATED WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES.
SYNOPSIS
TEMPERATURES COOL OFF TONIGHT AFTER A HOT SPRING
DAY. THE UPPER LEVEL PATTERN SHIFTS EAST TONIGHT AND SUPPORTING
COOLER BUT STILL ABOVE AVERAGE TEMPERATURES TO THE AREA THROUGH
THE WEEK. UNCERTAINTY INCREASES LATE IN THE WEEK WITH THE RIDGE
PATTERN POSSIBLY BREAKING DOWN TOWARD THE WEEKEND.
DISCUSSION...TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY
TEMPERATURES ARE
EXPECTED TO MODERATE BACK INTO THE 60S ALONG THE COAST AND IN
THE HIGHER TERRAIN AND 70S ELSEWHERE ON MONDAY AND THROUGH MUCH
OF THE WORKWEEK AS THE RIDGE AXIS SHIFTS INLAND. HIGHS WILL
STILL RUN 5-10 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR. WINDS
TURN SOUTHERLY WITH THE RIDGE SHIFTING EASTWARD WHICH WILL HELP
SUPPORT CHANCES FOR MARINE STRATUS TO DEVELOP ALONG THE COAST.
ENSEMBLES SHOW A STRONG CONSENSUS FOR DRY CONDITIONS THROUGH THE
WORKWEEK FOR MUCH OF THE AREA. HOWEVER, THERE IS A LOW (10-20%)
CHANCE FOR A POP-UP SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM OVER THE LANE AND
LINN COUNTY CASCADES BOTH MONDAY AND TUESDAY AFTERNOON. COULD
ALSO SEE SOME LIGHT DRIZZLE ALONG THE COAST IF THE MARINE
STRATUS IS THICK ENOUGH.
CLUSTER ANALYSIS FAVORS THE RIDGE FLATTENING OUT TOWARD THE END
OF THE WEEK AS A SHORTWAVE RIDES OVER THE RIDGE. THIS COULD LEAD
TO A PATTERN SHIFT BACK TO COOLER TEMPERATURES AND LOW CHANCES
FOR LIGHT RAIN. THE CURRENT FORECAST MAINTAINS TEMPERATURES
SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL NEXT WEEKEND, HOWEVER, THERE IS A DECENT
AMOUNT OF UNCERTAINTY IN THE FORECAST. -19
AVIATION
CURRENT OBSERVATIONS SHOW VFR CONDITIONS FOR INLAND
AREAS WITH IFR/LIFR MARINE STRATUS MOVING NORTHWARD ALONG THE
COAST AND INFILTRATING AROUND THE SOUTHERN COASTAL RANGE AND
THROUGH THE GAPS AND FLOWS. OVERNIGHT, A WIND REVERSAL WILL SEE
SOUTHERLY FLOW DEVELOP ALONG THE COAST WITH A SLIGHT DELAY FOR
INLAND LOCATIONS. SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE TAF
PERIOD. THIS WIND REVERSAL WILL ALSO SUPPORT THE IFR/LIFR
MARINE STRATUS MENTIONED PREVIOUSLY AND HELP TO SPREAD THE
MARINE STRATUS NORTHWARD ALONG THE COAST THROUGH 12Z SUNDAY.
CURRENT OBSERVATIONS ALREADY SHOW KONP BEING IMPACTED WITH KTMK,
LIKELY SEE IMPACTS AROUND KTMK BY 05Z SUNDAY AND THE MARINE
STRATUS REACHING KAST AROUND 10Z SUNDAY. ADDITIONALLY, THERE'S A
50-75% CHANCE MVFR CIGS REACH KEUG AROUND 11Z SUNDAY, A 30-50%
CHANCE THE MVFR CIGS REACH KSLE AND A 15-20% CHANCE THEY REACH.
KUAO, KPDX AND SURROUNDING TERMINALS. IF LOWERED FLIGHT
CONDITIONS DEVELOP, INLAND LOCATIONS EXPECTED TO IMPROVE TO VFR
AROUND 18Z-21Z MONDAY. COASTAL LOCATIONS WILL LIKELY STAY
IFR/LIFR THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD.
KPDX AND APPROACHES...VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGHOUT THE
PERIOD. SOUTHERLY WILL DEVELOP THOUGH 12Z MONDAY. THERE'S A
15-20% CHANCE OF MARINE STRATUS WITH MVFR CONDITIONS IMPACTING
KPDX AND SURROUNDING TERMINALS AFTER 12Z MONDAY. IF LOWERED
FLIGHT CONDITIONS DEVELOP, EXPECTED IMPROVEMENT TO VFR AROUND
18Z-21Z MONDAY. /42
MARINE
A SOUTHERLY WIND REVERSAL BEGINS THIS EVENING SOUTH
OF CAPE FOULWEATHER, WITH THE WIND TRANSITION SPREADING FROM THE
SOUTHERN WATERS TO THE NORTHERN WATERS OVERNIGHT. A PERIOD OF
ELEVATED SOUTH WINDS FORM ALONG THE INNER WATERS LATE TONIGHT
THROUGH MONDAY MORNING WITH GUSTS UP TO 18-20 KTS. SOUTH WINDS
CONTINUE INTO TUESDAY AND WILL BRING A RESURGENCE OF MARINE
STRATUS TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT WHICH COULD RESULT IN
OVERNIGHT OR EARLY MORNING DRIZZLE OR LIGHT RAIN. SEAS AROUND
6-8 FEET THROUGH MONDAY, FALLING TO 4-5 FEET ON TUESDAY.
NORTHERLY WINDS RETURN TOWARDS THE LATTER PART OF THE WEEK WITH
PERSISTENT SEAS OF 4-6 FT. -03
PQR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
OR...NONE.
WA...NONE.
PZ...NONE.
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/PORTLAND
INTERACT WITH US VIA SOCIAL MEDIA:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSPORTLAND
X.COM/NWSPORTLAND
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.
Main Text Page