447
FXUS66 KPQR 212235
AFDPQR
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PORTLAND OR
235 PM PST SAT FEB 21 2026
SYNOPSIS
ACTIVE WEATHER CONTINUES WITH VALLEY RAIN AND
MOUNTAIN SNOW THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. GUSTY EAST WINDS
AND ACCUMULATING PASS-LEVEL SNOW IN THE CASCADES CONTINUES INTO
TONIGHT, BUT IMPACTS ARE EXPECTED TO BE LIMITED. A MORE ROBUST
FRONTAL SYSTEM AFFECTING THE REGION LATE SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY
WILL BRING ADDITIONAL WIDESPREAD RAIN AND LOW CHANCES FOR RIVER
FLOODING. THE PATTERN TREND DRIER LATE NEXT WEEK.
SHORT TERM...NOW THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT
WET AND ACTIVE WEATHER
CONTINUES INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK, DOMINATED BY A LARGE CLOSED
UPPER LOW SPINNING OVER THE NORTHEAST PACIFIC. AN INITIAL WARM
FRONTAL BOUNDARY CONTINUES TO LIFT NORTHWARD AWAY FROM THE
REGION, YIELDING A BRIEF DRYING TREND FROM SOUTH TO NORTH
THROUGH THIS EVENING. SNOW LEVELS AT 3000-3500 FT WILL ALLOW
FOR LIGHT ADDITIONAL SNOWFALL ACCUMULATIONS AT PASS-LEVEL, WITH
HIGHER AMOUNTS TO THE NORTH AS THE PRECIPITATION SHIELD LIFTS
AWAY. WINTER WEATHER ADVISORIES REMAIN IN EFFECT UNTIL 10 PM PST
THIS EVENING ACROSS THE NORTHERN OREGON AND SOUTHERN WASHINGTON
CASCADES, AS WELL AS THE UPPER HOOD RIVER VALLEY, WHERE AN
ADDITIONAL FEW INCHES OF SNOW ARE POSSIBLE AS THE COVERAGE OF
PRECIPITATION DIMINISHES THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THOSE
DRIVING US-26 NEAR GOVERNMENT CAMP AND OR ROUTE 35 SOUTH FROM
HOOD RIVER TO BENNETT PASS ARE MOST LIKELY TO ENCOUNTER SNOW
COVERED ROADS AND REDUCED VISIBILITIES, WITH IMPROVED CONDITIONS
SOUTHWARD TOWARD US-20 AT SANTIAM PASS.
BETWEEN LOW PRESSURE OFF THE COAST AND HIGH PRESSURE INLAND, AN
OFFSHORE PRESSURE GRADIENT HAS SET UP ACROSS THE CASCADES,
GENERATING EASTERLY WINDS ACROSS THE REGION. WITHIN THE COLUMBIA
RIVER GORGE, THE GRADIENT HAS REACHED -7.5 MB BETWEEN PORTLAND
AND THE DALLES, SUPPORTING OBSERVED GUSTS OF 40-50 MPH WITHIN
THE WESTERN GORGE AND IN ADJACENT HIGHER TERRAIN, AND 25-35 MPH
ACROSS EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE PORTLAND/VANCOUVER METRO NEAR
TROUTDALE, CAMAS, AND WASHOUGAL TODAY. NEAR-TERM ENSEMBLE
GUIDANCE MAINTAINS THIS GRADIENT THROUGH TONIGHT, SUGGESTING
GUSTS WILL CONTINUE NEAR CURRENT LEVELS, BEFORE RAPIDLY
WEAKENING SUNDAY MORNING AS THE DEEP LOW OFFSHORE RETROGRADES
AWAY TO THE NORTHWEST AND THE PDX-DLS GRADIENT WEAKENS TO -2 MB
OR LESS. THESE GUSTS ARE NOT EXPECTED TO CAUSE WIND DAMAGE OR
OTHER IMPACTS, AND NO WIND HEADLINES ARE THEREFORE IN EFFECT.
BEHIND THE DEPARTING WARM FRONT, CONDITIONS TREND DRIER THROUGH
TONIGHT, BEFORE THE FIRST IN A SERIES OF UPPER-LEVEL SHORTWAVES
PASS OVERHEAD AND BRING ADDITIONAL ROUNDS OF PRECIPITATION. A
COLD FRONTAL RAIN BAND LOOKS TO MOVE ONSHORE THROUGH SUNDAY,
WITH REINVIGORATED RAIN SHOWER COVERAGE WITH EACH SUCCESSIVE
SHORTWAVE THROUGH MONDAY. AS THE AFOREMENTIONED CLOSED LOW OVER
THE NORTHEAST PACIFIC OPENS BACK INTO THE MEAN FLOW, BECOMING A
POSITIVELY-TILTED TROUGH, AN ELONGATED REGION OF VORTICITY ALOFT
WILL SUPPORT A PROLONGED CORRIDOR OF MOISTURE TRANSPORT ALONG
THE SURFACE COLD FRONT INTO WESTERN OREGON FROM MONDAY INTO
TUESDAY. THIS ATMOSPHERIC RIVER WILL LIKELY PRODUCE WIDESPREAD
RAIN ACROSS THE REGION, WITH THE TYPICAL RISE OF SNOW LEVELS
BACK ABOVE THE CASCADE PASSES UNTIL THE COLD FRONT PUSHES
THROUGH LATE TUESDAY. GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO PLACE THE HIGHEST
RAINFALL TOTALS TO THE SOUTH OF LANE COUNTY, HOWEVER UNCERTAINTY
AND VARIABILITY IN THE POSITION OF THE FRONT SUPPORTS CHANCES
FOR HEAVY RAIN EXTENDING NORTHWARD ALONG THE OREGON COAST AND IN
THE ADJACENT COAST RANGE. FROM SUNDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH TUESDAY
AFTERNOON, RAINFALL TOTALS WILL MOST LIKELY REACH 2-4" ALONG THE
COAST AND IN THE COAST RANGE AND CASCADES, WITH 1-2.5" ACROSS
INLAND VALLEYS AS WELL AS THE SOUTHWEST WASHINGTON COAST AND
WILLAPA HILLS. CHANCES TO SURPASS 2" OF RAINFALL INCREASE ALONG
THE I-5 CORRIDOR FROM 5-10% BETWEEN KELSO/LONGVIEW AND SALEM TO
20-30% FROM CORVALLIS SOUTH TO COTTAGE GROVE. WETTER AREAS ALONG
THE OREGON COAST WILL HAVE A 10-20% CHANCE OF EXCEEDING 3" OF
RAIN, WHILE THE COAST RANGE WILL HAVE 30-50% CHANCES.
THESE RAINFALL AMOUNTS ON THEIR OWN OVER 24-48 HOURS MAY NOT BE
ENOUGH TO RAISE FLOODING CONCERNS, BUT THE ADDITION OF POTENTIAL
SNOWMELT RUNOFF COULD RAISE THE CHANCES OF MAINSTEM RIVER
FLOODING, PARTICULARLY FOR RIVERS DRAINING THE COAST RANGE, AS
WELL AS FLOODING OF SMALLER CREEKS AND STREAMS DRAINING BOTH THE
COAST RANGE AND CASCADES. ACROSS THE COAST RANGE, OBSERVATIONS
ARE SPARSE, BUT SNOTEL SITES BETWEEN TILLAMOOK AND THE TUALATIN
VALLEY SNOW THE EQUIVALENT OF 2-3" OF WATER AVAILABLE IN THE
SNOWPACK, WITH RAIN THROUGH TODAY LIKELY PRIMING IT TO MELT BY
BOTH WARMING IT AND ADDING LIQUID TO ITS VOLUME. TO THE SOUTH
THROUGH THE CENTRAL COAST RANGE, THERE ARE NO SNOTEL
OBSERVATIONS, SO THERE IS LOWER CONFIDENCE IN THE AMOUNT OF
SNOWPACK AVAILABLE TO MELT; A BEST PROXY IS PERHAPS SITE AT
SIMILAR ELEVATIONS IN THE CASCADES OF EASTERN LANE AND LINN
COUNTIES, WHICH SHOW LESS THAN 0.5" OF POTENTIAL ADDED RUNOFF.
THE COMBINED UNCERTAINTY IN BOTH RAINFALL AND SNOWMELT ALONG THE
COAST RANGE RENDERS LOW (5-10% CHANCE) OF MINOR FLOODING OF
MAINSTEM RIVERS DRAINING BOTH WESTWARD AND INTO THE WILLAMETTE
VALLEY, INCLUDING THE SIUSLAW AND LUCKIAMUTE RIVERS. OTHER RIVER
FORECASTS REMAIN SENSITIVE TO THE RAINFALL FORECAST, AND
CHANGES TO FORECAST RIVER LEVELS SHOULD BE ANTICIPATED. -36
LONG TERM...WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY
AS THE TROUGH FINALLY
EJECTS EASTWARD BY MIDWEEK, A MORE ZONAL PATTERN IS FAVORED TO
DEVELOP THROUGH THE LONG TERM PERIOD. WHILE THE POTENTIAL FOR A
SHORTWAVE ARRIVING FROM THE NORTHWEST MAINTAINS LOW TO MODERATE
CHANCES FOR RAIN (30-50%) LATE NEXT WEEK, LARGELY DRIER WEATHER
IS MORE LIKELY FROM WEDNESDAY INTO THE WEEKEND AS LOW-AMPLITUDE
RIDGING ATTEMPTS TO BUILD. TEMPERATURES LOOK TO REMAIN NEAR
SEASONAL NORMS FOR LATE FEBRUARY. -36
AVIATION
EXPECT MOSTLY VFR CONDITIONS AT ALL TERMINALS AS A
WARM-FRONTAL BOUNDARY WEAKENS AND MOVES NORTH THROUGH THE
AIRSPACE. EXPECT REMAINING RAIN INLAND TO DECREASE THROUGH THIS
AFTERNOON, COMPLETELY ENDING THROUGHOUT THE AIRSPACE BY 00Z
SUNDAY. COASTAL SITES WILL HOLD ONTO RAIN A BIT LONGER, WITH
RAIN IN KAST THROUGH MOST OF THE TAF PERIOD, ALTHOUGH MOSTLY
LIGHT SHOWERS AFTER 00-03Z SUNDAY. EXPECT EASTERLY WINDS WITH
GUSTS UP TO 30 KT IN THE WESTERN END OF THE COLUMBIA RIVER GORGE
(KTTD EASTWARD) THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. RAIN WILL RETURN TO
MOST TERMINALS AROUND 09-12Z SUNDAY (EARLIEST ALONG THE COAST),
BRINGING A 30-50% CHANCE OF MVFR CONDITIONS TO TERMINALS.
KPDX AND APPROACHES...EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH MOST OF THE
TAF PERIOD. EXPECT EAST-SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS WITH GUSTS AROUND
25-30 KNOTS EAST OF KPDX TOWARD KTTD THROUGH MOST OF THE TAF
PERIOD, POSSIBLY WEAKENING BY 15-18Z SUNDAY. RAIN HAS MOSTLY
DIMINISHED/ENDED FOR THE TERMINAL, ALTHOUGH VICINITY SHOWERS
COULD PERSIST UNTIL 00Z SUNDAY. EXPECT ANOTHER SYSTEM TO BRING
RAIN TO THE TERMINAL BY 12Z SUNDAY, BRINGING A 30-50% CHANCE OF
MVFR CONDITIONS. ~12
MARINE
SEAS CONTINUE TO BUILD THIS AFTERNOON AS A WEATHER
SYSTEM MOVES THROUGH THE REGION, BRINGING STRONG WINDS AND
INCREASING SEAS FOR TODAY AND EARLY SUNDAY. BUOY 46089
CONTINUES TO SEE WIND GUSTS BETWEEN 40-45 KT AND WILL SEE GUSTS
UP TO 50-55 KT AS THE MAIN BODY OF THE SYSTEM MOVES THROUGH THE
OUTER WATERS SOUTH OF CAPE FALCON THIS EVENING AND INTO SUNDAY
MORNING. WHILE THE OUTER WATERS NORTH OF CAPE FALCON COULD SEE
ISOLATED GUSTS UP TO 50 KT TONIGHT THROUGH VERY EARLY SUNDAY
MORNING, WINDS ACROSS THE INNER WATER WILL BE COMPARATIVELY
LIGHTER, WITH GUSTS AROUND 25-35 KT. SEAS WILL PEAK
TONIGHT/SUNDAY MORNING IN THE UPPER TEENS FOR THE INNER WATERS
AND 20-24 FT FOR THE OUTER WATERS AS A FRESH SOUTHERLY SWELL
ARRIVES. THERE IS A 10% CHANCE FOR SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHTS TO
EXCEED 19 FT FOR BUOY 46029 BETWEEN 3-8 AM SUNDAY. SUNDAY
MORNING, WINDS AND SEAS WILL SLOWLY SUBSIDE, WITH WIND GUSTS
BELOW 25 KT AND SEAS BELOW 15 FT EXPECTED BY SUNDAY NIGHT.
CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE TO IMPROVE, WITH SEAS DROPPING TO
AROUND 5-7 FT BY THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK. TOWARD THE END OF THE
WEEK, A WSW SWELL WILL PUSH SEAS TO OR ABOVE 10 FT. ~12/99
PQR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
OR...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 10 PM PST THIS EVENING FOR
ORZ121-126.
WA...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 10 PM PST THIS EVENING FOR
WAZ211.
PZ...HAZARDOUS SEAS WARNING UNTIL 4 AM PST MONDAY FOR PZZ210-
251>253.
GALE WARNING UNTIL 10 AM PST SUNDAY FOR PZZ271.
HAZARDOUS SEAS WARNING FROM 10 AM SUNDAY TO 4 AM PST MONDAY
FOR PZZ271>273.
STORM WARNING UNTIL 10 AM PST SUNDAY FOR PZZ272-273.
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/PORTLAND
INTERACT WITH US VIA SOCIAL MEDIA:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSPORTLAND
X.COM/NWSPORTLAND
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.
Main Text Page