369  
FXUS66 KPQR 172207  
AFDPQR  
 
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION  
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PORTLAND OR  
306 PM PDT WED OCT 17 2018  
 
   
SYNOPSIS
 
HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE REGION WILL PRODUCE AN EXTENDED  
STRETCH OF MILD DAYS, COOL NIGHTS, AND CLEAR SKIES THROUGH THE  
WEEKEND. THE HIGH PRESSURE SHOULD BREAK DOWN NEXT WEEK FOR A RETURN  
TO RAIN.  
 

 
   
SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY
 
A HIGH PRESSURE  
SYSTEM WILL STAY OVER THE REGION BRINGING A DRY SHORT-TERM FORECAST.  
THIS RIDGE WILL RESULT IN WARMER TEMPERATURES IN THE MID-70S IN THE  
VALLEY AND MID-60S ALONG THE COAST AFTER PATCHY MORNING FOG BURNS  
OFF. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL DECREASE SLIGHTLY BETWEEN THURSDAY AND  
SATURDAY AS THE RIDGE PASSES AND A MORE NORTHERLY WIND DRAWS COLD  
AIR INTO THE INTERIOR.  
   
LONG TERM...SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY
 
TRANSITIONING FROM DRY  
WEATHER INTO MORE ZONAL FLOW WILL BRING HIGHER CHANCES OF  
PRECIPITATION THROUGHOUT THE EXTENDED FORECAST. SUNDAY STAYS DRY AS  
IT'S ON THE TAIL END OF THE HIGH PRESSURE BUT AN ALASKAN LOW  
PRESSURE COLD FRONT PUSHES THROUGH THE ARE DIRECTLY BEHIND IT  
RESULTING IN INCREASED PRECIPITATION. DISAGREEMENTS BETWEEN THE  
MODELS SHOW DIFFERENT ARRIVAL TIMES OF THE PRECIPITATION ALONG THE  
COAST WITH THE 12Z EURO SHOWING PRECIPITATION MONDAY NIGHT AND THE  
12Z GFS SHOWS TUESDAY MORNING. THIS FIRST SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO  
BRING AN ACCUMULATION OF 0.5-1.0INCHES OF RAIN ACCORDING TO THE 12Z  
GFS. A SECOND LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL FOLLOW WEDNESDAY INCREASING  
PRECIPITATION IN THE AREA. BPHILLIPS  
 

 
   
AVIATION
 
HIGH PRESSURE WILL KEEP VFR CONDITIONS FOR MOST OF  
THE AREA THROUGH TONIGHT. EXPECT GUSTS FROM THE EAST AROUND 20  
KT INTO THE EVENING NEAR KTTD, WITH GUSTS WEAKENING THROUGH  
TONIGHT. THIS EVENING THROUGH TOMORROW MORNING EXPECT WINDS TO  
BECOME LIGHT AND VARIABLE INLAND. FOG AND SOUTH WINDS ALONG THE  
COAST OVERNIGHT. FOG WILL PROBABLY REACH AS FAR AS KEUG, AND THE  
LOWER PORTION OF THE WILLAMETTE VALLEY, BUT NOT AS FAR AS KSLE.  
CONDITIONS ARE TOO DRY FOR INLAND FOG TO DEVELOP OVERNIGHT.  
 
KPDX AND APPROACHES...VFR CONDITIONS CONTINUE WITH LIGHT AND  
VARIABLE WINDS THROUGH TOMORROW MORNING. /42  
 

 
   
MARINE
 
HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT TO PERSIST FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL  
DAYS. LIGHT OFFSHORE FLOW WEAKENS THIS AFTERNOON AND BECOMES  
PREDOMINANTLY NW-N. A BRIEF SOUTHERLY WIND REVERSAL EXPECTED  
OVERNIGHT ALONG NEAR SHORE WATERS THROUGH EARLY THURSDAY MORNING,  
WITH NEAR SHORE WATERS RETURNING TO A NW-N PATTERN BY THURSDAY  
AFTERNOON. WIND SPEEDS TO BE 15 KT OR LESS THROUGH THE WEEKEND.  
MODELS IN GENERAL AGREEMENT SHOWING A WEAKENING FRONTAL SYSTEM  
MOVING THROUGH THE WATERS AROUND TUESDAY FOR POSSIBLE SMALL  
CRAFT ADVISORY SPEEDS. MULTIPLE MODELS SHOW A RATHER DEEP SURFACE  
LOW IN THE GULF OF ALASKA AROUND WEDNESDAY, THIS MAY BRING GALE  
FORCE WIND TO OUR WATERS.  
 
SEAS BUILD TOWARD A 8 FOOT 15 SECOND NW SWELL BY TONIGHT. SEAS  
GRADUALLY SUBSIDE THEREAFTER, BUT REBUILD TO NEAR 10 TO 12 FEET  
MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. WEISHAAR/42  
 

 
   
PQR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
 
 
OR...NONE.  
WA...NONE.  
PZ...NONE.  

 
 

 
 
INTERACT WITH US VIA SOCIAL MEDIA:  
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSPORTLAND  
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSPORTLAND  
 
THIS DISCUSSION IS FOR NORTHWEST OREGON AND SOUTHWEST WASHINGTON  
FROM THE CASCADE CREST TO 60 NAUTICAL MILES OFFSHORE. THIS AREA IS  
COMMONLY REFERRED TO AS THE CWA OR FORECAST AREA.  
 
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.

The Nexlab OR Page
The Nexlab WA Page Main Text Page