394
FXUS66 KPQR 120958
AFDPQR
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PORTLAND OR
254 AM PDT THU JUN 12 2025
SYNOPSIS
A PERSISTENT ONSHORE FLOW REGIME WILL MAINTAIN SEASONABLE
TEMPERATURES THROUGH WEDNESDAY OF NEXT WEEK WITH HIGH TEMPS MAINLY IN
THE 70S EACH DAY FOR INLAND AREAS AND LOW 60S AT THE COAST. DRY
WEATHER WILL CONTINUE ASIDE FROM EARLY NEXT WEEK WHEN CHANCES FOR
LIGHT RAIN RETURN TO THE AREA. THERE IS ALSO A 10-20% CHANCE OF LIGHT
DRIZZLE ALONG THE COAST THURSDAY MORNING AND FRIDAY MORNING, MAINLY
ALONG THE SOUTH WA/NORTH OR COAST.
SHORT TERM...THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT
THE SHORT TERM FORECAST
IS HIGHLIGHTED BY A PERSISTENT ONSHORE FLOW REGIME WITH TEMPERATURES
CLOSE TO AVERAGE FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR AND MAINLY DRY WEATHER THROUGH
THE WEEKEND. SATELLITE AND SURFACE WEATHER OBSERVATIONS FROM EARLY
THURSDAY MORNING DEPICTED LOW CLOUDS OVER MUCH OF SOUTHWEST WA, THE
LOWER COLUMBIA, NORTH OR COAST RANGE AND NORTH OR COAST. EXPECT CLOUD
COVER TO EXPAND OVER THE PORTLAND/VANCOUVER METRO AND PORTIONS OF THE
WILLAMETTE VALLEY AND CASCADE FOOTHILLS TOWARDS SUNRISE. AREAS THAT
DO SEE CLOUD COVER THURSDAY MORNING WILL SEE AN INCREASE IN SUN
DURING THE LATE MORNING AND AFTERNOON HOURS. TEMPERATURES WILL MOST
LIKELY TOP OUT IN THE LOW TO MID 70S FOR INLAND VALLEYS, HOWEVER
THERE IS A 10-25% CHANCE FOR HIGHS IN THE UPPER 70S IF ENOUGH
SUNSHINE OCCURS. TEMPS WILL REMAIN COOLER AT THE COAST WITH HIGHS
AROUND 60-63 DEGREES.
FRIDAY WILL BE NOTICEABLY COOLER AS 850 MB TEMPS COOL SEVERAL DEGREES
WITH A PASSING SHORTWAVE TROUGH ALOFT. THIS SHORTWAVE WILL ALSO HELP
DEEPEN THE MARINE LAYER SLIGHTLY, RESULTING IN A 10-15% CHANCE OF
LIGHT DRIZZLE AT THE COAST AND INCREASING CHANCES FOR MORNING CLOUD
COVER FOR INLAND VALLEYS, MAINLY TO THE NORTH OF SALEM. THE NBM
25TH-75TH PERCENTILE FOR HIGH TEMPS RANGES FROM THE UPPER 60S TO
LOWER 70S, WITH THE DETERMINISTIC NBM FALLING NEAR THE 50TH
PERCENTILE AROUND 70 DEGREES. GIVEN THE COOLER TEMPS, FRIDAY WILL BE
A GREAT DAY FOR STRENUOUS OUTDOOR ACTIVITIES SUCH AS YARD WORK,
EXERCISE, ETC.
TEMPS WARM BACK INTO THE MID 70S ON SATURDAY FOR INLAND VALLEYS AND
LOW TO MID 60S AT THE COAST IN RESPONSE TO RISING 500 MB HEIGHTS,
WARMING TEMPS ALOFT AND LESS MORNING CLOUD COVER (ASIDE FROM THE
SOUTH WA/NORTH OR COAST AND WILLAPA HILLS WHERE MOSTLY CLOUDY
CONDITIONS ARE LIKELY IN THE MORNING). TEMPS TREND A FEW DEGREES
WARMER ON SUNDAY, WHICH IS CURRENTLY EXPECTED TO BE THE WARMEST DAY
OF THE WEEK WITH THE HIGHEST CHANCE FOR HIGHS OF 80 DEGREES OR
WARMER OVER INLAND VALLEYS (20-40% CHANCE). -TK
LONG TERM...MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT
THE LONG TERM FORECAST
IS HIGHLIGHTED BY CHANCES FOR LIGHT RAIN MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH
WEDNESDAY MORNING IN RESPONSE TO AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH. WHILE MOST
ENSEMBLE MEMBERS FROM THE 00Z/JUNE 12TH ITERATION OF THE
ENS/GEFS/GEPS SHOW AT LEAST SOME MEASURABLE RAIN WITH THIS TROUGH
(GENERALLY UNDER 0.1-0.2" WITH THE HIGHEST AMOUNTS AT THE COAST AND
THE LOWEST AMOUNTS FROM SALEM TO EUGENE), THERE ARE SIGNIFICANT
TIMING DIFFERENCES EVIDENT; SOME MEMBERS BRING RAIN INTO THE AREA AS
EARLY AS MONDAY, WHILE OTHERS HOLD OFF UNTIL LATE TUESDAY. IN
ADDITION, THERE IS A SMALL HANDFUL OF MEMBERS SHOWING NO RAIN AT ALL,
MAINLY FROM THE GEFS/GEPS. NEVERTHELESS, THE NBM IS SHOWING A 20-40%
CHANCE FOR 48-HR RAIN AMOUNTS OF 0.1" OR MORE FROM 5AM MONDAY TO 5AM
WEDNESDAY, EXCEPT 50-60% ACROSS SOUTHWEST WA AND 60-75% ALONG THE
COAST. AS IF OFTEN THE CASE THIS TIME OF YEAR, COASTAL LOCATIONS AND
MORE NORTHERN LOCATIONS ARE FAVORED TO SEE THE MOST RAIN, ASSUMING
RAIN DOES OCCUR WITH THIS SYSTEM. -TK
AVIATION
HIGH PRESSURE EXPECTED TO REMAIN IN CONTROL OF THE
REGION TODAY. HIGH CLOUDS WILL PASS OVER THE AREA WITH STRATUS
OVER THE COASTAL TERMINALS. HIGH CONFIDENCE FOR MVFR STRATUS
ALONG THE COAST THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING. MARINE STRATUS SHOULD
BREAK OUT BY AROUND 18-21Z THU, IMPROVING CONDITIONS TO VFR FOR
COASTAL TERMINALS. NORTHWEST WINDS EXPECTED TO PERSIST,
STRENGTHENING DURING THE AFTERNOON AS PRESSURE GRADIENTS TIGHTEN,
WITH GUSTS TO 20-25 KT AFTER 19-21Z THU ALONG THE COAST AND AFTER
00Z FRI ACROSS THE WILLAMETTE VALLEY.
*NOTE THAT KTTD ASOS IS CURRENTLY OUT OF COMMISSION EXCEPT FOR
ALTIMETER, AND KVUO IS ONLY ACCESSIBLE BY DIAL IN.
PDX AND APPROACHES...EXPECTING VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE TAF
PERIOD AS THE EDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS IN CONTROL. LIGHT
WINDS EARLY WILL INCREASE FROM THE NORTH/NORTHWEST TO AROUND 10-15
KT WITH GUSTS TO 20 KT. -BATZ/ALVIZ
MARINE
NORTHWESTERLY ONSHORE FLOW WILL CONTINUE AS SURFACE
HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS CENTERED OVER THE NORTHEAST PACIFIC. WINDS
GENERALLY 10-15 KT WITH GUSTS TO 20 KT, INCREASING THURSDAY
EVENING TO 15-20 KT WITH GUSTS TO 25 KT AS A DISTURBANCE PASSES
OVERHEAD. SEAS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN STEEP AT AROUND 7 FEET AT 8
TO 9 SECONDS. THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY HAS BEEN EXTENDED INTO
THURSDAY NIGHT AS STEEP SEAS PERSIST AND WIND GUSTS TO 25 KT WILL
BE POSSIBLE. WILL NOTE THAT CONDITIONS ARE MARGINAL SO CONDITIONS
MAY NOT BE MET AT TIMES. -BATZ
PQR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
OR...NONE.
WA...NONE.
PZ...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 5 AM PDT FRIDAY FOR PZZ271>273.
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