583
FXUS66 KPQR 112210
AFDPQR
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PORTLAND OR
210 PM PST WED FEB 11 2026
SYNOPSIS
HIGH PRESSURE MAINTAINS DRY WEATHER THROUGH
THURSDAY WITH NIGHTLY CHANCES FOR FOG AND FROST IN INTERIOR
VALLEYS AND GUSTY EAST WINDS THROUGH THE COLUMBIA RIVER GORGE.
THERE IS MODERATE TO HIGH CONFIDENCE IN A RETURN TO COOLER AND
WETTER WEATHER THURSDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.
SHORT TERM...NOW THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT
AN UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE
RIDGE CONTINUES TO MOVE SOUTHEAST OVER THE REGION, SUPPORTING
MOSTLY DRY AND CLEAR CONDITIONS THROUGH THURSDAY. WEAK THERMAL
TROUGHING AT THE SURFACE HAS DEVELOPED AND IS SUPPORTING WEAK
OFFSHORE FLOW ALONG THE COAST AND THROUGH THE WESTERN COLUMBIA
RIVER GORGE AND INTO THE EASTERN PORTLAND METRO NEAR KTTD. A
PRESSURE GRADIENT OF AROUND -3 MB BETWEEN TTD AND DLS WILL
SUPPORT GUSTS TO AROUND 20 MPH INTO TONIGHT IN THE WESTERN GORGE
AND EASTERN METRO. THE GRADIENT IS EXPECTED TO DECREASE LATE
TONIGHT. ELSEWHERE, WINDS ARE MAINLY FROM THE NORTH. A WEAK
SHORTWAVE IS EXPECTED TO PASS OVERHEAD ON THURSDAY, BRINGING AN
INCREASE IN CLOUD COVER AND NO SUBSTANTIAL PRECIPITATION. THERE
ARE LOW CHANCE (15-20%) POPS ALONG THE CENTRAL OR CASCADES IN
LANE AND LINN COUNTY THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH THE AFTERNOON BUT
NOT EXPECTING MORE THAN VERY LIGHT RAIN IF ANYTHING. THE PATTERN
BEGINS TO SHIFT THURSDAY NIGHT AS A TROUGH BEGINS TO DIG
SOUTHEAST FROM THE ALEUTIANS. WINDS WILL BECOME ONSHORE LATE
THURSDAY NIGHT AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES THE PACNW. LIGHT RAIN
WILL ALSO RETURN AS THE FRONT MOVES ONSHORE, BRINGING AROUND
0.10-0.25 INCHES OF RAIN INLAND AND 0.25-0.50 INCHES ALONG THE
COAST, COAST RANGE AND CASCADES LATE THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH
FRIDAY NIGHT. -19
LONG TERM...SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY
THE PATTERN REMAINS
ACTIVE THROUGH THE WEEKEND AS THE UPPER LEVEL LOW PINCHES OFF
AND MOVES TOWARD CENTRAL CA, LEAVING OR IN THE SADDLE POINT
BETWEEN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCES. AS SUCH, POST-FRONTAL
PRECIPITATION CHANCES WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE WEEKEND, BUT WILL
TREND LOWER AS THE CUT-OFF LOW DEVELOPS. WEAKER SUPPORT FOR
ASCENT AND THE SCATTERED NATURE OF SHOWERY PRECIPITATION BOTH
CONTRIBUTE TO A LOWERING OF POTENTIAL PRECIPITATION TOTALS
THROUGH THE PERIOD. SNOW LEVELS FALLING TO 3000-4000 FT WITHIN
THE UPPER TROUGH WILL ALLOW FOR ACCUMULATING SNOW AT THE CASCADE
PASSES, WITH 25-45% CHANCES OF SIX INCHES OR MORE FALLING FROM
FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY AFTERNOONS, AND 10% OR LESS CHANCES FOR
ONE FOOT OF SNOW.
A REINFORCING TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO DROP SOUTH FROM NORTHERN
AK, BRINGING MUCH COLDER AIR ALOFT TO THE REGION EARLY NEXT
WEEK. MORNING LOWS FALL TO NEAR OR BELOW FREEZING EACH OF
SUNDAY, MONDAY, AND TUESDAY MORNINGS. PARTICULARLY ON MONDAY AND
TUESDAY, THERE IS A 10-25% CHANCE THAT SNOW LEVELS WILL FALL TO
1000 FT OR LOWER, WHICH COULD SEE SNOW FALL ACROSS THE COAST
RANGE, CASCADE FOOTHILLS, AND POSSIBLY EVEN TO THE VALLEY FLOOR
IN THE EARLY MORNING HOURS. 850 MB TEMPERATURES IN THE -3 TO -6
C RANGE ARE EXPECTED WHICH IS MARGINAL FOR SNOW TO THE VALLEY
FLOOR WITHIN ONSHORE FLOW. IF TEMPERATURES ARE COOLER, CLOSER
TO
-8 TO -10 C, CHANCES WILL INCREASE. AT THIS TIME, THE NBM SHOWS
NO CHANCE FOR SNOW IN THE VALLEY BUT PRECIPITATION METEOGRAMS
SHOW A ~5% CHANCE FOR SNOW THROUGHOUT THE WILLAMETTE VALLEY.
CHANCES ARE A BIT HIGHER IN THE WEST HILLS OF THE PORTLAND
METRO AT AROUND 10-20% FOR 0.10 INCHES TUESDAY MORNING
ACCORDING TO THE NBM. ANY SNOW THAT DOES ACCUMULATE WOULD
QUICKLY MELT AS MARGINAL MORNING TEMPERATURES WARM ABOVE
FREEZING EACH DAY, THEREBY LIMITING POTENTIAL IMPACTS. WILL
CONTINUE TO MONITOR THE PATTERN FOR MAJOR SHIFTS IN THE PATTERN
NEXT WEEK. -19/36
AVIATION
CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT OFFSHORE WINDS WILL MAINTAIN VFR
FLIGHT CONDITIONS ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY. HIGH CLOUDS
WILL BEGIN PUSHING INLAND FROM WEST TO EAST AFTER 06Z THURSDAY,
HOWEVER VFR CONDITIONS WILL MOST LIKELY CONTINUE AS CIGS WILL BE
ABOVE 15-20 KFT. THE MAIN EXCEPTION TO THAT IS AT KEUG WHERE FOG
IS LIKELY TO RETURN BY 06-08Z THURSDAY (50-60% CHANCE), RESULTING
IN LIFR FLIGHT CONDITIONS FROM APPROXIMATELY 08-19Z BEFORE FOG
LIFTS AND BRINGS A RETURN TO VFR CONDITIONS FOR THURSDAY
AFTERNOON.
ELSEWHERE, FROST IS FAVORED OVER FOG TONIGHT AS TEMPERATURES DIP
INTO THE MID 30S. ADMITTEDLY, THERE IS A 15-20% CHANCE OF FOG
RESULTING IN LIFR/IFR VISIBILITIES AT KSLE, KUAO, KPDX, AND KHIO,
HOWEVER THIS IS NOT REFLECTED IN THE TAFS AS THIS IS NOT THE MOST
LIKELY OUTCOME. PROBABILITIES FOR FOG ARE LESS THAN A 10% AT
KAST, KONP, AND KTTD. NOTE EASTERLY WINDS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH AT
LEAST 12Z THURSDAY AT KTTD WITH GUSTS UP TO 20 KT. AFTER 12Z,
GUIDANCE SUGGESTS WINDS WILL BECOME LIGHT AND VARIABLE LESS THAN 5
KT AT KTTD AS OFFSHORE FLOW WEAKENS AND BEGINS TO TRANSITION TO A
LIGHT ONSHORE FLOW REGIME.
KPDX AND APPROACHES...VFR CONDITIONS WILL MOST LIKELY CONTINUE
THROUGH 00Z THURSDAY. CLEAR SKIES WILL GIVE WAY TO INCREASING HIGH
CLOUDS AFTER 06Z THURSDAY, WITH CIGS ABOVE 15-20 KFT. THERE IS A
20% CHANCE FOR FOG DEVELOPMENT TONIGHT, HOWEVER FROST IS THE MOST
LIKELY OUTCOME AS TEMPERATURES DIP INTO THE MID 30S AGAIN. -23
MARINE
NORTHERLY WINDS WILL CONTINUE EASING THIS EVENING INTO
TONIGHT, FALLING BELOW 15-20 KT. WINDS SUBSIDE FURTHER TO BELOW 10
KT BY MID TO LATE THURSDAY MORNING BEFORE SHIFTING OUT OF THE
SOUTH THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING FRONTAL
SYSTEM. THIS FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL BE VERY WEAK, RESULTING IN ONLY A
SLIGHT INCREASE IN WINDS UP TO 10-15 KT.
DESPITE WEAK WINDS, SEAS WILL RISE DRAMATICALLY LATE THURSDAY
NIGHT INTO FRIDAY MORNING AS A WESTERLY LONG-PERIOD SWELL
ARRIVES. STILL EXPECTING SEAS TO PEAK SOMEWHERE BETWEEN 14-16 FT
BY EARLY FRIDAY MORNING, HOWEVER THERE IS A 1-10% CHANCE SEAS
PEAK AS HIGH AS 16-19 FT. NOTE PROBABILITIES ARE HIGHEST OVER THE
NORTHERN OUTER WATERS AND LOWEST OVER THE SOUTHERN WATERS. SEAS
LOOK TO EASE TO 9-10 FT BY SATURDAY MORNING AND THEN REMAIN WITHIN
THAT RANGE THROUGH THE WEEKEND WITH A RETURN OF OFFSHORE WINDS.
-23
BEACH HAZARDS
A HIGH THREAT FOR SNEAKER WAVES IS LIKELY
FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY EVENING DUE TO A LONG PERIOD WESTERLY
SWELL. WAVES CAN RUN UP SIGNIFICANTLY FARTHER ON A BEACH THAN
NORMAL, INCLUDING OVER ROCKS AND JETTIES. SNEAKER WAVES CAN
SUDDENLY KNOCK PEOPLE OFF OF THEIR FEET AND QUICKLY PULL THEM
INTO THE FRIGID OCEAN WHICH MAY LEAD TO SERIOUS INJURY OR
DROWNING. CAUTION SHOULD BE USED WHEN IN OR NEAR THE WATER,
ESPECIALLY THOSE WHO WILL BE RAZOR CLAMMING. KEEP CHILDREN AND
PETS AWAY FROM THE SURF ZONE. KEEP OFF OF JETTIES, ROCKS AND
LOGS NEAR THE SURF ZONE. IF YOU SEE SOMEONE SWEPT INTO THE SEA
DO NOT SWIM IN AFTER THEM. CALL 911 AND KEEP AN EYE ON THEM
UNTIL HELP ARRIVES. -10
PQR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
OR...NONE.
WA...NONE.
PZ...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 PM PST THIS AFTERNOON FOR PZZ272-
273.
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/PORTLAND
INTERACT WITH US VIA SOCIAL MEDIA:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSPORTLAND
X.COM/NWSPORTLAND
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