054
FXUS66 KPQR 061804 AAA
AFDPQR
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PORTLAND OR
1000 AM PST THU NOV 6 2025
UPDATED AVIATION DISCUSSION...
SYNOPSIS
SCATTERED SHOWERS PERSIST ACROSS THE REGION. THE
NEXT FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL BRING ANOTHER ROUND OF RAIN AND BREEZY
SOUTHERLY WINDS, WITH GUSTS UP TO 55 MPH AT THE COAST BY
THIS AFTERNOON. EXPECT DECREASING SHOWERS THROUGH FRIDAY.
CONDITIONS LIKELY TREND DRIER THIS WEEKEND AND INTO NEXT WEEK.
SHORT TERM...NOW THROUGH FRIDAY
SCATTERED SHOWERS CONTINUE TO
STREAM IN ALONG SOUTHWEST FLOW. A FEW RUMBLE OF THUNDER REMAIN
POSSIBLE AS CELLS OFFSHORE TAP INTO MINIMAL INSTABILITY. WINDS
REMAIN SOUTHWESTERLY ALONG THE COAST WITH GUSTS 20-30 MPH WHILE
INLAND WINDS ARE SOUTHERLY AROUND 10 MPH. SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED
TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE MORNING.
THE LARGE-SCALE TROUGH REMAINS IN PLACE OVER THE NORTHEAST
PACIFIC SUPPORTING CONTINUING UNSETTLED WEATHER TODAY. A
SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL MOVE QUICKLY THROUGH THE UPPER LEVEL FLOW,
SUPPORTING A RAPIDLY DEEPENING SURFACE LOW OFFSHORE. THIS LOW IS
EXPECTED TO TRACK NORTHEAST TOWARD THE BRITISH COLUMBIA COAST
BETWEEN HAIDA GWAII AND VANCOUVER ISLAND THIS AFTERNOON WHICH
WILL SEND ANOTHER COLD FRONT TOWARD THE PACNW. MODEL TRENDS HAVE
THE FRONT MOVING THROUGH THE REGION FASTER THAN PREVIOUS
GUIDANCE WHICH HAS LOWERED THE EXPECTED RAINFALL AMOUNTS THROUGH
TONIGHT. SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT BUT THE THREAT
IS LESS WIDESPREAD THAN YESTERDAY GIVEN THE TIMING OF THE
SYSTEM. THE BULK OF THE PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED TO FALL
THROUGH THIS EVENING, THOUGH SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED TO
PERSIST OVERNIGHT. RAIN TOTALS THROUGH THE WILLAMETTE VALLEY ARE
EXPECTED TO BE 0.25-0.5 INCHES. TOTALS ALONG THE COAST AND IN
THE COAST RANGE EXPECTED TO BE 0.5-1.5 INCHES WITH THE HIGHEST
TOTALS ALONG THE HIGHEST PEAKS IN THE COAST RANGE. IN THE
CASCADES, EXPECTED TOTALS BETWEEN 0.75 AND 2 INCHES, HIGHEST
ALONG THE PEAKS WITH THE EXCEPTION BEING THE LANE COUNTY
CASCADES WHERE TOTALS CLOSER TO HALF AN INCH ARE EXPECTED.
GUSTY WINDS ARE ALSO EXPECTED WITH THE PASSAGE OF THIS SYSTEM.
THERE IS A 10-25% CHANCE FOR WIND GUSTS TO EXCEED 58 MPH,
ESPECIALLY AT BEACHES AND HEADLANDS. WINDS THROUGH THE
WILLAMETTE VALLEY TO GUST UP TO 30-40 MPH, AND ONLY A 15% OR
LESS PROBABILITY OF EXCEEDING 45 MPH. /19
LONG TERM...FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY
RAIN CHANCES
REMAIN IN THE FORECAST FRIDAY, HOWEVER ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE
SUGGESTS RAIN AMOUNTS WILL BE LIGHTER AND LESS IMPACTFUL. EXPECT
DECREASING SHOWERS THROUGH THE DAY AS AN UPPER RIDGE OF HIGH
PRESSURE BEGINS BUILDING OVER THE REGION. WPC 500 MB CLUSTER
ANALYSIS SHOWS GOOD AGREEMENT FOR AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE AXIS TO
BE POSITIONED ALONG THE WEST COAST AND INTO THE PACNW ON
SATURDAY WHICH WOULD SUPPORT DRY CONDITIONS. CHANCE FOR FOG TO
DEVELOP OVERNIGHT INTO SAT MORNING BUT INCREASING HIGH CLOUDS
MAY INHIBIT SURFACE COOLING. CLUSTER AND ENSEMBLE ANALYSIS HAVE
TRENDED DRIER SUNDAY INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. CLUSTERS DEPICT THE
RIDGE REMAINING SHIFTING EASTWARD BUT STRENGTHENING AND
REMAINING THE DOMINANT FEATURE OVER THE WESTERN US ON SUNDAY,
THEN BROADENING WITH A CUT OFF LOW DEVELOPING OFF THE SOUTHERN
CALIFORNIA COAST INTO TUESDAY. THE NBM CONTINUES TO TREND TOWARD
THIS DRIER SOLUTION BUT A WEAK PASSING FRONT MAY BRING VERY
LIGHT RAIN TO THE NORTH OR AND SOUTH WA COAST LATE MONDAY INTO
TUESDAY. ENSEMBLES FROM THE EURO AND GFS ONLY SHOW ABOUT 1/4 OF
MEMBERS BRINGING LIGHT PRECIPITATION TO THE REGION MONDAY AND
TUESDAY WITH EVEN FEWER MEMBERS ON WEDNESDAY. IN GENERAL, THE
PATTERN IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN ON THE CHILLER SIDE FRIDAY THROUGH
WEDNESDAY.
AVIATION
SHOWERS LINGER, WITH MOSTLY VFR CONDITIONS INLAND AND
MVFR CONDITIONS ALONG THE COAST. THE NEXT FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL
ARRIVE AROUND 19-21Z THURSDAY, BRINGING HEAVY PRECIPITATION AND A
COASTAL JET TO THE COASTAL RUNWAYS. EXPECT SOUTHWEST WINDS TO
CONTINUE THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD, WITH PEAK WINDS AROUND 19-21Z
THURSDAY. ADDITIONALLY, THERE IS ANOTHER CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS
BETWEEN 22Z THURSDAY AND 03Z FRIDAY. WITH WIND SHEAR LESS LIKELY
TODAY, CONFIDENCE IN THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT IS LESS. JUST ENOUGH
CONFIDENCE FOR A STRAY STRIKE HERE OR THERE EXPECTED. OVERALL,
MVFR CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE AS THE FRONT PASSES THROUGH, BETWEEN
22Z THURSDAY AND 03Z FRIDAY (40-60% CHANCE FOR MVFR CIGS ALONG
THE COAST AND 30-50% CHANCE INLAND). OTHERWISE, EXPECT MOSTLY VFR
CONDITIONS THROUGH THE PERIOD.
KPDX AND APPROACHES...RAIN SHOWERS, VFR AND SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS
THROUGH THE FORECAST. EXPECT GUSTY WINDS DURING THE FRONTAL
PASSAGE THIS AFTERNOON. RAIN WILL INITIALLY START OFF STRATIFORM
IMPACTING VISIBILITY BUT QUICKLY TRANSITION TO SHOWERS AS THE FAST
MOVING FRONT PASSES. TO KEEP IN MIND FOR DEPARTURES AND
APPROACHES, EXPECT WINDS ABOVE 2000 FT TO REACH AROUND 55-60 KT
AFTER 22Z THURSDAY. ADDITIONALLY, THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT IS
POSSIBLE BETWEEN 22Z THURSDAY AND 03Z FRIDAY. EXPECT SOUTHERLY TO
SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD.
~12
MARINE
SHOWERS LINGER OVER THE WATERS. A FRONT MOVES IN
THIS MORNING/AFTERNOON WHICH WILL CAUSE WESTERLY SWELLS TO BUILD.
SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHTS WILL BUILD TO 17-18 FT WITH A 10% CHANCE
OF SEAS GREATER THAN 19 FT, AND A 5% CHANCE OF SEAS GREATER THAN
20 FT. EXPECT THE HIGHEST SEAS TO BE IN THE OUTER WATERS OF PZZ272
AND PZZ273. COASTAL ZONES AND THE COLUMBIA RIVER BAR WILL BE
MORESO IMPACTED BY WIND. WILL SEE A WEAK COASTAL JET REFORM ON
THURSDAY THOUGH THE EXACT LOCATION OF THE STRONGEST WINDS IS STILL
UP FOR DEBATE. SOME MODELS ARE SHIFTING THEM NORTH, WHILE OTHERS
FURTHER SOUTH. GALE FORCE WINDS ARE EXPECTED ONCE AGAIN WITH THIS
SYSTEM. THERE IS LESS THAN A 10% CHANCE OF STORM FORCE WINDS IN
THE INNER WATERS.
ONCE THIS FRONT EXITS MARINE BASED HAZARDS ARE NO LONGER EXPECTED.
BEACH HAZARDS
THERE IS A COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY FOR MINOR
TIDAL OVERFLOW FLOODING DURING HIGH TIDE FROM 10 AM TO 3 PM
THURSDAY FOR THE PACIFIC COUNTY COAST, CLATSOP COUNTY COAST, AND
TILLAMOOK COUNTY COAST. MINOR FLOODING DURING HIGH TIDE IS
EXPECTED IN THE LOW LYING AREAS NEAR BAYS, SLOUGHS, AND THE LOWER
REACHES OF THE COASTAL RIVERS. THIS IS DUE TO TOTAL TIDE UP TO 12
FEET AT TOKE POINT RESULTING IN TIDE UP TO ONE FOOT ABOVE GROUND
LEVEL, TOTAL TIDE UP TO 11 FEET AT TONGUE POINT RESULTING IN TIDE
UP TO ONE FOOT ABOVE GROUND LEVEL, AND TOTAL TIDE UP TO 11 FEET AT
GARIBALDI RESULTING IN TIDE UP TO ONE FOOT ABOVE GROUND LEVEL.
EXPECT FLOODING ALONG PORTIONS OF HIGHWAY 101, INCLUDING NEAR
RAYMOND, SEASIDE, AND FRASER ROAD IN TILLAMOOK COUNTY. COASTAL
RESIDENTS IN THE WARNED AREA SHOULD BE ALERT FOR RISING WATER AND
TAKE APPROPRIATE ACTION TO PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY. REMAIN OUT
OF THE WATER TO AVOID HAZARDOUS SWIMMING CONDITIONS. MINOR
TIDAL OVERFLOW IS POSSIBLE AGAIN ON FRIDAY AS ACTIVE WEATHER
COINCIDES WITH THE KING TIDES.
ADDITIONALLY, THERE IS A HIGH SURF ADVISORY FOR LARGE WAVES AND
HAZARDOUS SURF CONDITIONS FROM 4 AM TO 7 PM ON THURSDAY DUE TO A
STRONG WESTERLY SWELL. DESTRUCTIVE WAVES MAY WASH OVER BEACHES,
JETTIES, AND OTHER STRUCTURES UNEXPECTEDLY. PEOPLE CAN BE SWEPT
OFF ROCKS AND JETTIES AND DROWN WHILE OBSERVING HIGH SURF. MINOR
BEACH EROSION MAY DAMAGE COASTAL PROPERTIES AND BUILDINGS. HIGHER
THAN NORMAL WATER RUN-UP IS EXPECTED ON BEACHES AND LOW-LYING
SHORELINE. REMAIN AWAY FROM THE SHORELINE TO AVOID THESE CONDITIONS.
-12/03
PQR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
OR...HIGH SURF ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM PST THIS EVENING FOR ORZ101>103.
COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY UNTIL 3 PM PST THIS AFTERNOON FOR ORZ101-
102.
WA...HIGH SURF ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM PST THIS EVENING FOR WAZ201.
COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY UNTIL 3 PM PST THIS AFTERNOON FOR WAZ201.
PZ...GALE WARNING UNTIL 4 PM PST THIS AFTERNOON FOR PZZ210-251>253-
271>273.
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/PORTLAND
INTERACT WITH US VIA SOCIAL MEDIA:
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X.COM/NWSPORTLAND
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