369
FXUS66 KPQR 172207
AFDPQR
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PORTLAND OR
306 PM PDT WED OCT 17 2018
SYNOPSIS
HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE REGION WILL PRODUCE AN EXTENDED
STRETCH OF MILD DAYS, COOL NIGHTS, AND CLEAR SKIES THROUGH THE
WEEKEND. THE HIGH PRESSURE SHOULD BREAK DOWN NEXT WEEK FOR A RETURN
TO RAIN.
SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY
A HIGH PRESSURE
SYSTEM WILL STAY OVER THE REGION BRINGING A DRY SHORT-TERM FORECAST.
THIS RIDGE WILL RESULT IN WARMER TEMPERATURES IN THE MID-70S IN THE
VALLEY AND MID-60S ALONG THE COAST AFTER PATCHY MORNING FOG BURNS
OFF. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL DECREASE SLIGHTLY BETWEEN THURSDAY AND
SATURDAY AS THE RIDGE PASSES AND A MORE NORTHERLY WIND DRAWS COLD
AIR INTO THE INTERIOR.
LONG TERM...SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY
TRANSITIONING FROM DRY
WEATHER INTO MORE ZONAL FLOW WILL BRING HIGHER CHANCES OF
PRECIPITATION THROUGHOUT THE EXTENDED FORECAST. SUNDAY STAYS DRY AS
IT'S ON THE TAIL END OF THE HIGH PRESSURE BUT AN ALASKAN LOW
PRESSURE COLD FRONT PUSHES THROUGH THE ARE DIRECTLY BEHIND IT
RESULTING IN INCREASED PRECIPITATION. DISAGREEMENTS BETWEEN THE
MODELS SHOW DIFFERENT ARRIVAL TIMES OF THE PRECIPITATION ALONG THE
COAST WITH THE 12Z EURO SHOWING PRECIPITATION MONDAY NIGHT AND THE
12Z GFS SHOWS TUESDAY MORNING. THIS FIRST SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO
BRING AN ACCUMULATION OF 0.5-1.0INCHES OF RAIN ACCORDING TO THE 12Z
GFS. A SECOND LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL FOLLOW WEDNESDAY INCREASING
PRECIPITATION IN THE AREA. BPHILLIPS
AVIATION
HIGH PRESSURE WILL KEEP VFR CONDITIONS FOR MOST OF
THE AREA THROUGH TONIGHT. EXPECT GUSTS FROM THE EAST AROUND 20
KT INTO THE EVENING NEAR KTTD, WITH GUSTS WEAKENING THROUGH
TONIGHT. THIS EVENING THROUGH TOMORROW MORNING EXPECT WINDS TO
BECOME LIGHT AND VARIABLE INLAND. FOG AND SOUTH WINDS ALONG THE
COAST OVERNIGHT. FOG WILL PROBABLY REACH AS FAR AS KEUG, AND THE
LOWER PORTION OF THE WILLAMETTE VALLEY, BUT NOT AS FAR AS KSLE.
CONDITIONS ARE TOO DRY FOR INLAND FOG TO DEVELOP OVERNIGHT.
KPDX AND APPROACHES...VFR CONDITIONS CONTINUE WITH LIGHT AND
VARIABLE WINDS THROUGH TOMORROW MORNING. /42
MARINE
HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT TO PERSIST FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL
DAYS. LIGHT OFFSHORE FLOW WEAKENS THIS AFTERNOON AND BECOMES
PREDOMINANTLY NW-N. A BRIEF SOUTHERLY WIND REVERSAL EXPECTED
OVERNIGHT ALONG NEAR SHORE WATERS THROUGH EARLY THURSDAY MORNING,
WITH NEAR SHORE WATERS RETURNING TO A NW-N PATTERN BY THURSDAY
AFTERNOON. WIND SPEEDS TO BE 15 KT OR LESS THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
MODELS IN GENERAL AGREEMENT SHOWING A WEAKENING FRONTAL SYSTEM
MOVING THROUGH THE WATERS AROUND TUESDAY FOR POSSIBLE SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORY SPEEDS. MULTIPLE MODELS SHOW A RATHER DEEP SURFACE
LOW IN THE GULF OF ALASKA AROUND WEDNESDAY, THIS MAY BRING GALE
FORCE WIND TO OUR WATERS.
SEAS BUILD TOWARD A 8 FOOT 15 SECOND NW SWELL BY TONIGHT. SEAS
GRADUALLY SUBSIDE THEREAFTER, BUT REBUILD TO NEAR 10 TO 12 FEET
MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. WEISHAAR/42
PQR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
OR...NONE.
WA...NONE.
PZ...NONE.
INTERACT WITH US VIA SOCIAL MEDIA:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSPORTLAND
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSPORTLAND
THIS DISCUSSION IS FOR NORTHWEST OREGON AND SOUTHWEST WASHINGTON
FROM THE CASCADE CREST TO 60 NAUTICAL MILES OFFSHORE. THIS AREA IS
COMMONLY REFERRED TO AS THE CWA OR FORECAST AREA.
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