188
FXUS66 KPQR 052131
AFDPQR
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PORTLAND OR
231 PM PDT SAT JUL 5 2025
SYNOPSIS
BROAD HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS THROUGH THE NEXT WEEK
WHILE MAINTAINING A GENERAL ONSHORE FLOW. INCREASING
TEMPERATURES THROUGH TUESDAY WITH LOW ELEVATION INLAND
TEMPERATURES AROUND 90 DEGREES F ON MONDAY AND TUESDAY. COOLER
TEMPERATURES ON WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY BEFORE HEATING BACK UP
ON FRIDAY. BREEZY ONSHORE WINDS WEDNESDAY DUE AS THE PRESSURE
GRADIENT INCREASES.
SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT
BROAD, UPPER LEVEL
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK. AT THE SAME TIME,
AN UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL PARK OVER NORTHERN CALIFORNIA THROUGH
MONDAY/TUESDAY. THIS WILL RESULT IN A VERY WEAK REX BLOCKING
PATTERN AND AS A RESULT WILL CAUSE DAYTIME HIGHS TO WARM THROUGH
THE START OF THIS WEEK. EXPECT TEMPERATURES TO RISE ABOUT 5
DEGREES F EACH DAY. THE COAST WILL HAVE PERSISTENT ONSHORE FLOW
AND THAT WILL MODERATE TEMPERATURES RESULTING IN A WARM UP BY
ONLY A FEW DEGREES EACH DAY IF AT ALL. THE CURRENT FORECAST HAS
THE WARMEST DAY OVER THE NEXT 96 HOURS BEING ON MONDAY. HOWEVER,
TUESDAY COULD BE JUST AS WARM OR SLIGHTLY WARMER THAN MONDAY
DEPENDING ON HOW THE CALIFORNIA LOW DEVELOPS AND MOVES EASTWARD.
FOR MONDAY, WINDS ALOFT WILL BECOME SOUTHWESTERLY AND BRING IN
WARMER AND DRIER AIR TO THE REGION BRINGING 850 MB TEMPERATURES
AROUND 15-18 DEGREES C. WHILE PERSISTENT ONSHORE FLOW WILL HELP
TO MITIGATE DAYTIME HIGHS AS WELL AS AID IN OVERNIGHT
RECOVERIES, OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL STILL BE ELEVATED FOR INLAND
LOCATIONS. ON TUESDAY, THE CALIFORNIA LOW LOOKS TO START
MEANDERING NORTH AND EAST. THE TIMING OF THIS MOVEMENT WILL BE
THE DECIDING FACTOR AS TO IF MONDAY OR TUESDAY WILL BE THE
WARMEST FOR THE START OF THE WEEK.
ON BOTH MONDAY AND TUESDAY MODERATE HEATRISK IS PRESENT WITHIN
THE WILLAMETTE VALLEY, CLARK COUNTY LOWLANDS AND THE GORGE.
THOSE SENSITIVE TO HEAT SHOULD TAKE PRECAUTIONS. /42
LONG TERM...WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY
AS WE MOVE INTO THE
MIDDLE OF THE WEEK, THE CALIFORNIA LOW WILL CONTINUE TO PUSH
EASTWARD INTO IDAHO. THIS WILL RESULT IN INCREASING NORTHWESTERLY
FLOW AND BRING IN COOLER, MOISTER AIR FOR WEDNESDAY. HOWEVER, AS
WE LOOK TOWARDS THURSDAY AND BEYOND, MODELS ARE BRINGING AN
UPPER LEVEL RIDGE INTO THE FORECAST. WPC 500MB CLUSTERS ARE ALL
GENERALLY POINTING TOWARDS A BROAD RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE
DEVELOPING OVER THE NORTHEAST PACIFIC OCEAN/PACIFIC NW. IF THIS
SCENARIO MANIFESTS, THEN FRIDAY AND SATURDAY COULD EASILY LOOK
LIKE MONDAY/TUESDAY IN TERMS OF DAYTIME HIGHS. /42
AVIATION
VISIBLE SATELLITE REVEALS MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES ACROSS
THE AREA AS OF 21Z SAT. EXPECT MARINE STRATUS TO RETURN TO THE
COAST 04-08Z SUN, BRINGING MVFR CIGS TO KAST AND IFR STRATUS/FOG
TO KONP THROUGH 15Z-18Z SUN MORNING. STRATUS SHOULD MOSTLY STAY
CONFINED TO COASTAL AREAS TONIGHT, WITH INLAND TERMINALS REMAINING
VFR THROUGH THE PERIOD. WINDS WILL INCREASE OUT OF THE NORTH-
NORTHWEST THIS AFTERNOON TO AROUND 10 KT AT MOST SITES, WITH A FEW
GUSTS IN THE 15-20 KT RANGE BEFORE WINDS DIMINISH AFTER 06Z SUN.
PDX AND APPROACHES...VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED UNDER MOSTLY CLEAR
SKIES THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. NW WINDS INCREASE TO AROUND 10 KT
WITH GUSTS TO 15-18KT THIS AFTERNOON, DIMINISHING TO AROUND 5 KT
AFTER 06Z SUN. MODELS DEPICT A ~10% CHANCE FOR MVFR STRATUS AT THE
TERMINAL 12-16Z SUN. /CB
MARINE
TYPICAL SUMMERTIME PATTERN PERSISTS THROUGH MUCH OF THE
COMING WEEK AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE OFFSHORE MAINTAINS NORTH TO
NORTHWEST WINDS ACROSS THE COASTAL WATERS. COULD SEE A FEW GUSTS
TO 20-25 KT ACROSS THE CENTRAL NEARSHORE WATERS THROUGH THIS
EVENING, BUT DO NOT ANTICIPATE ENOUGH COVERAGE TO WARRANT AN
ADVISORY TODAY. INLAND HEATING WILL DRIVE A STRENGTHENING COASTAL
PRESSURE GRADIENT SUNDAY INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK, WITH WINDS
INCREASING AS A RESULT. HAVE ISSUED SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES ACROSS
THE WATERS SUNDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH MONDAY EVENING AS WINDS GUST
TO 25-30 KT. EXPECT THE STRONGEST GUSTS SOUTH OF CAPE FALCON, WITH
MORE MARGINAL ADVISORY CONDITIONS WITH NORTHWARD EXTENT TOWARDS
THE SOUTH WASHINGTON COASTAL WATERS. SEAS WILL REMAIN IN THE 4-6
FT RANGE, COMPRISED MAINLY OF A MIX OF SHORT PERIOD WIND-DRIVEN
WAVES AND A MODEST, MID PERIOD, WESTERLY SWELL. /CB
PQR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
OR...NONE.
WA...NONE.
PZ...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 11 AM SUNDAY TO 10 PM PDT MONDAY
FOR PZZ251>253-271>273.
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/PORTLAND
INTERACT WITH US VIA SOCIAL MEDIA:
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X.COM/NWSPORTLAND
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