503
FXUS66 KPQR 192322
AFDPQR
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PORTLAND OR
322 PM PST WED NOV 19 2025
SYNOPSIS
ANOTHER COASTAL WEATHER SYSTEM WILL BRUSH THE AREA
TONIGHT INTO THURSDAY MORNING BRINGING LIGHT RAIN, WITH DRY
CONDITIONS OTHERWISE EXPECTED THROUGH THE WORKWEEK. THE PATTERN
THEN SHIFTS WETTER AND COLDER THIS WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.
SHORT TERM...WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT
VISIBLE
SATELLITE IMAGERY EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING DEPICTS A FRONTAL
SYSTEM APPROACHING THE WEST COAST WITH MID TO HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS
SPREADING INTO NW OREGON AND SW WASHINGTON. ADDITIONALLY, LOW
STRATUS IS SEEN LINGERING IN INLAND VALLEYS, INCLUDING MUCH OF
THE WILLAMETTE VALLEY. STRATUS HAS DISSIPATED ALONG THE COLUMBIA
RIVER INTO THE PORTLAND METRO AREA DUE TO OFFSHORE WINDS
INCREASING THIS MORNING, BRINGING IN DRYER AIR THROUGH THE
COLUMBIA RIVER GORGE FROM EASTERN CASCADES. EXPECT GUSTS UP TO
20-25 MPH IN THE PORTLAND METRO AREA AND UP TO 25-35 MPH THROUGH
THE WESTERN COLUMBIA RIVER GORGE, CASCADES NORTH OF LINN COUNTY,
NORTHERN OREGON COAST RANGE, AND WILLAPA HILLS THROUGH THIS
EVENING. AS THE FRONTAL SYSTEM MOVES THROUGH THE REGION TONIGHT,
WINDS WILL DECREASE AND TURN SOUTHERLY. A WARM FRONT IS MOVING
INLAND ON THE CENTRAL OREGON COAST, WITH RADAR IMAGERY SHOWING
FAINT RADAR RETURNS. SOME VERY LIGHT SHOWERS MAY OCCUR WITH
THIS, BUT THE MAIN BAND OF RAIN WILL COME WITH THE COLD FRONT
THAT WILL QUICKLY REACH THE CENTRAL OREGON COAST BY 5-7 PM PST
AND SPREAD NORTHEAST OVERNIGHT TONIGHT. THE COLD FRONT AND MAIN
BAND OF RAIN IS EXPECT TO BE EAST OF THE WILLAMETTE VALLEY BY 4
AM PST TOMORROW, WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS CONTINUING THROUGH THE
REGION TOMORROW. NOT MUCH RAIN IS EXPECTED WITH THIS SYSTEM,
GENERALLY 0.05-0.15 INCHES FOR THE INTERIOR LOWLANDS AND
0.25-0.5 INCHES ALONG THE COAST AND CASCADES. LOCALIZED AMOUNTS
UP TO 1 INCH ARE POSSIBLE ALONG THE CENTRAL OREGON COAST AND
CASCADES. SNOW LEVELS WILL REMAIN ABOVE 5000 FT THROUGH MOST OF
THE NIGHT WHEN PRECIPITATION IS HEAVIEST, ONLY LOWERING TO 4500
FT BY EARLY TOMORROW MORNING WHEN PRECIPITATION TURNS MORE
SHOWERY. AROUND 1 INCH OF SNOW OR LESS MAY ACCUMULATE AT
WILLAMETTE AND SANTIAM PASSES, BUT NOT ENOUGH SNOW IS EXPECTED
TO CAUSE TRAVEL IMPACTS.
RIDGING BEGINS BUILDING OVER THE PACNW TOMORROW NIGHT INTO
FRIDAY, ALLOWING DRYING CONDITIONS AND CLEARING SKIES.
TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO BE MUCH COOLER TOMORROW NIGHT INTO
FRIDAY MORNING AS CLEARER SKIES WILL ALLOW FOR RADIATIVE COOLING
ALONG WITH THE COLDER AIRMASS BEHIND THE FRONT. THERE'S A HIGH
CHANCE FOR MOST INLAND AREAS TO FALL INTO THE MID TO UPPER 30S
WITH A 20-45% CHANCE FOR RURAL AREAS IN THE WILLAMETTE VALLEY TO
FALL NEAR OR BELOW FREEZING. IF SKIES CLEAR EARLY ENOUGH
THURSDAY NIGHT, LOW STRATUS AND FOG POTENTIAL WILL ONCE AGAIN
BE ON THE TABLE FOR THURSDAY NIGHT/FRIDAY MORNING. -03
LONG TERM...SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY
THIS WEEKEND INTO EARLY
NEXT WEEK, THE RIDGE AXIS WILL SLOWLY SLIDE EASTWARD TOWARD THE
ROCKIES, ALLOWING THE STORM TRACK TO DIP SOUTH INTO THE PACIFIC
NORTHWEST AND RESULTING IN STEADILY INCREASING CHANCES FOR
PRECIPITATION ACROSS THE REGION BY SUNDAY. ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE IS
COMING INTO BETTER AGREEMENT THAT SATURDAY WILL REMAIN MOSTLY
DRY, THOUGH A HANDFUL OF MEMBERS CONTINUE TO INDICATE THE STORM
TRACK MAY DIP SOUTH ENOUGH FOR LIGHT PRECIPITATION, MAINLY FOR
THE NORTHERN PORTION OF THE FORECAST AREA ALONG THE COAST AND
TERRAIN. BEYOND SATURDAY, GLOBAL ENSEMBLES REMAIN IN FAIRLY GOOD
AGREEMENT GIVEN THE LEAD TIME THAT AN UPPER- LEVEL SHORTWAVE
TROUGH WILL TRACK TOWARD WESTERN WASHINGTON OR NORTHWESTERN
OREGON, ALTHOUGH THE TIMING OF THIS FEATURE REMAINS MORE
UNCERTAIN, RANGING ANYWHERE FROM SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY.
SIGNIFICANT CASCADE SNOW CHANCES HAVE ALL BUT DISAPPEARED WITH
THIS SYSTEM WITH LESS THAN 5% CHANCE OF 6 INCHES OR MORE OF SNOW
FROM SUNDAY TO TUESDAY. ON THE HEELS OF THIS SHORTWAVE,
HOWEVER, ANOTHER SHOT OF COLDER TEMPERATURES COULD REACH THE
REGION TOWARD THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. -36/03
AVIATION
THE INITIAL STAGES OF THE FRONT IS MOVING IN THIS
AFTERNOON WHICH IS GOING TO PUSH UPPER LEVEL STRATUS OVER THE
REGION. THIS HIGH STRATUS IS GOING TO INHIBIT THE VERY STUBBORN
STRATUS THAT HAS LINGERED IN THE WILLAMETTE VALLEY. THESE AREAS
ARE GOING TO STRUGGLE TO CLEAR UNTIL THE MAIN FRONTAL PASSAGE
ARRIVES AFTER 00Z THU. WILL SEE WIDESPREAD RAIN, MVFR STRATUS, AND
LOCALLY BREEZY WINDS. SOUTHERLY WINDS ALONG THE COAST WILL AMPLIFY
OVERNIGHT WITH GUSTS AROUND 25 KT OR GREATER. RAIN WILL TAPER
AFTER 12Z THU WITH CIGS FOLLOWING QUICKLY BEHIND.
KPDX AND APPROACHES...VFR THROUGH THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS AHEAD OF
A FRONTAL SYSTEM. OVERNIGHT, MVFR CIGS ARE MOST LIKELY WITH A
20-25% CHANCE OF IFR CIGS BETWEEN 09-12Z THU. DUE TO THE LOW
PROBABILITY HAVE OMITTED FROM THE TAF AND TRENDED SLIGHTLY HIGHER
TO LOW-END MVFR. -27
MARINE
A WEAK COLD FRONTAL SYSTEM IS MOVING OVER THE WATERS
CAUSING A SOUTHERLY WIND REVERSAL WITH GUSTS UP TO 25 KT. WILL SEE
LOCALIZED GUSTS UP TO 30 KT, ESPECIALLY IN THE INNER WATERS. SEAS
WILL SLOWLY RISE TO 10 FT BY THURSDAY MORNING. WHILE WINDS WILL
EASE FOLLOWING THE FRONT, SEAS WILL TAKE OVER IN REGARDS TO THE
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY. THEREFORE, THE SMALL CRAFT BRIDGES THE TWO
DIFFERENT SCENARIOS. IN THE POST FRONTAL ENVIRONMENT, A LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM IN THE NORTHEAST PACIFIC AND GULF OF ALASKA WILL
BRING IN A FRESH SWELL TO ADD ON TO THE BACKGROUND SWELL. SEAS
WILL INCREASE CONSIDERABLY BEGINNING THURSDAY AFTERNOON. AS THEY
BUILD, WILL SEE WIDESPREAD SEAS GREATER THAN 13 FT AT 14 SECONDS.
THE MOST LIKELY RANGE FOR SEAS (25-75TH PERCENTILE) IS 13-17 FT
BUT THERE IS A 10% CHANCE FOR SEAS GREATER THAN 18 FT IN THE FAR
OUTER WATERS WEST OF 30 NM FROM SHORE. WINDS ARE NOT GOING TO BE
AMPLIFIED DURING THAT TIME. HAZARDOUS SEAS EXPECTED THROUGH FRIDAY
MORNING
THIS IS A QUICK SHOT OF HAZARDOUS SEAS BUT DON'T EXPECTED SETTLED
CONDITIONS. FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK INTO THE WEEKEND, SEAS
WILL HOVER RIGHT AROUND 10-14 FT AT 14 SECONDS WITH A SOUTH TO
SOUTHWESTERLY WIND. -27
BEACH HAZARDS
AN ENERGETIC WESTERLY SWELL IS EXPECTED ALONG
THE NORTHWESTERN OREGON AND SOUTHWESTERN WASHINGTON COASTS FOR A
LONG DURATION FROM THURSDAY THROUGH NEXT MONDAY. INITIALLY, THE
SWELL WILL REACH 15-18 FT AT 15 SECONDS THROUGH MUCH OF THURSDAY,
BEFORE WEAKENING SLIGHTLY TO 10-12 FT AT 12-15 SECONDS FROM EARLY
FRIDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH THE THE WEEKEND. EVEN WHEN THIS SWELL IS
SLIGHTLY LOWER AMPLITUDE, ITS LONG-PERIOD NATURE WILL YIELD A HIGH
RISK FOR SNEAKER WAVES ALONG AREA BEACHES. THESE ENERGETIC WAVES
CAN RUN SIGNIFICANTLY FARTHER UP A BEACH THAN NORMAL, INCLUDING
OVER ROCKS AND JETTIES, CREATING POTENTIALLY LIFE-THREATENING
CONDITIONS IN THE SURF ZONE WHEN BEACHGOERS CAN BE UNEXPECTEDLY
KNOCKED OFF THEIR FEET AND PULLED OUT INTO COLD OCEAN WATERS.
A BEACH HAZARDS STATEMENT HAS THEREFORE BEEN ISSUED FROM 5 AM
THURSDAY THROUGH 5 AM MONDAY. CAUTION SHOULD BE USED WHEN IN OR
NEAR THE WATER, AND BEACHGOERS WITH CHILDREN SHOULD BE ESPECIALLY
WATCHFUL. NEVER TURN YOUR BACK ON THE OCEAN, AND BE SURE TO KEEP
AN EYE ON THE WAVES. THOSE PARTICIPATING IN RAZOR CLAM DIGS SHOULD
ADDITIONALLY EXERCISE CAUTION.-36
PQR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
OR...NONE.
WA...NONE.
PZ...HAZARDOUS SEAS WARNING FROM 10 AM THURSDAY TO 4 AM PST FRIDAY
FOR PZZ210-251>253-271>273.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 7 PM THIS EVENING TO 10 AM PST
THURSDAY FOR PZZ251>253.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM PST THURSDAY FOR PZZ271>273.
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/PORTLAND
INTERACT WITH US VIA SOCIAL MEDIA:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSPORTLAND
X.COM/NWSPORTLAND
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