299
FXUS66 KPQR 091023
AFDPQR
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PORTLAND OR
223 AM PST MON FEB 9 2026
SYNOPSIS
A PASSING FEATURE WILL BRING SCATTERED SHOWERS,
DIMINISHING IN COVERAGE THROUGH TODAY AS BUILDING HIGH PRESSURE
SUPPORTS A DRYING TREND. SNOW LEVELS AROUND 3500 FEET WILL SEE
ACCUMULATING SNOW AT AND ABOVE THE CASCADE PASSES WHILE THESE
SHOWERS PERSIST. DRY WEATHER IS THEN EXPECTED TUESDAY THROUGH
THURSDAY BEFORE MORE ACTIVE WEATHER RETURNS THURSDAY NIGHT INTO
THE WEEKEND.
SHORT TERM...NOW THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT
A WEAK UPPER-LEVEL
SHORTWAVE QUICKLY PASSING OVERHEAD TODAY IS SUPPORTING
SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS ACROSS THE REGION EARLY THIS
MORNING. A COOLER AIR MASS IN PLACE BEHIND A RECENTLY DEPARTED
COLD FRONT HAS ALLOWED SNOW LEVELS TO FALL TO AROUND 3500 FT,
WITH ACCUMULATING SNOW EXPECTED TO CONTINUE AT AND ABOVE THE
CASCADE PASSES TODAY WHILE SHOWERS PERSIST. ADDITIONAL RAINFALL
AT LOWER ELEVATIONS WILL MOST LIKELY PRODUCE 0.25 INCHES OR
LESS, WITH MOST VALLEY LOCATIONS ALONG AND SOUTH OF US-26
UNLIKELY (LESS THAN A 20% CHANCE) TO SEE EVEN 0.10 INCHES OF
ADDITIONAL RAIN. AT PASS-LEVEL IN THE CASCADES, ADDITIONAL
SNOWFALL WILL MOST LIKELY REMAIN AROUND 1 INCH OR LESS. HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDING INTO THE REGION THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH TONIGHT
WILL THEN FAVOR A DRYING TREND WITH NEAR-NORMAL TEMPERATURES
THROUGH MIDWEEK. THE ONLY POTENTIAL EXCEPTION IS A 20-40%
CHANCE OF SHOWERS IN THE LANE AND LINN COUNTY CASCADES FROM
TUESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH WEDNESDAY EVENING AS AN AREA OF LOW
PRESSURE MOVES INTO NORTHERN CALIFORNIA. -36
LONG TERM...THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY
THERE IS STRONG CONSENSUS
AMONG LONG-RANGE ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE THAT DRY WEATHER WILL PERSIST
THROUGH THURSDAY BEFORE THE PATTERN BECOMES MORE ACTIVE. RIDGING
ALOFT WILL SHIFT EAST OF THE ROCKIES WHILE UPPER-LEVEL TROUGHING
TAKES ITS PLACE OVER THE WEST COAST LATE THURSDAY AND CONTINUING
THROUGH THE WEEKEND. AN INITIAL FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL MARK THIS
PATTERN SHIFT WITH RAIN RETURNING AS EARLY AS THURSDAY EVENING
TO THE COAST AND SPREADING INLAND THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT. WITH
ENSEMBLE MEAN TROUGHING THEN IN PLACE OVERHEAD, CHANCES FOR
PRECIPITATION PERSIST THROUGH THE WEEKEND, ALTHOUGH DETAILS OF
THE FLOW REMAIN VERY UNCERTAIN AT THIS POINT. COOLER AIR WITHIN
THE UPPER TROUGH FAVORS LOWERING SNOW LEVELS, ALLOWING FOR MORE
ACCUMULATING SNOWFALL AT PASS-LEVEL IN THE CASCADES, AS WELL AS
POTENTIALLY TO ELEVATIONS BELOW 3000 FT IN THE FOOTHILLS. -36
AVIATION
SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS POST-FRONTAL SHOWERS CONTINUE
EARLY THIS MORNING ACROSS THE REGION, BUT ARE EXPECTED TO
DIMINISH IN COVERAGE BY 21-24Z MON EXCEPT ALONG THE COAST TO
THE NORTH OF KTMK WHERE SHOWERS MAY LINGER THROUGH 06Z TUE. MVFR
(20-40% CHANCE INLAND, 40-60% CHANCE AT THE COAST) OR LOW-END
VFR CIGS WILL CONTINUE WHILE SHOWERS PERSIST, AND BRIEF
TERMINAL IMPACTS FROM PASSING SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED, HOWEVER
TIMING OF IMPACTS IS LOW CONFIDENCE. CONDITIONS IMPROVE TO VFR
BY 18Z MON WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE (70-80% CHANCE), EXCEPT AT
KAST/KTMK UNTIL 00Z TUE. LIGHT SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST WINDS AROUND 5
KT TODAY WILL SHIFT OUT OF THE NORTH TO NORTHEAST TONIGHT.
KPDX AND APPROACHES...MVFR (30-40% CHANCE) OR LOW-END VFR CIGS
CONTINUE THROUGH 15-18Z WITH RAIN SHOWERS DIMINISHING IN
COVERAGE THROUGH 00Z TUE. BRIEF TERMINAL IMPACTS TO CIGS/VIS
ARE POSSIBLE WHILE SHOWERS CONTINUE, BUT CONFIDENCE IN TIMING OF
IMPACTS IS LOW. CHANCES FOR VFR CONDITIONS INCREASE THROUGH THE
PERIOD AS SKIES TREND CLEARER AND AND CLOUD BASES LIFT ABOVE 5
KFT. SOUTH WINDS AROUND 5 KT WILL SHIFT OUT OF THE EAST AFTER
00Z TUE AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS. -36
MARINE
BUOY OBSERVATIONS EARLY THIS MORNING OF SEAS AROUND
9-10 FT AT 12-14 SECONDS SUPPORT A CONTINUED HAZARD TO SMALL
CRAFT AS THE WESTERLY SWELL PEAKS AROUND 10 FT TODAY BEFORE
EASING THROUGH MIDWEEK. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES THEREFORE REMAIN
IN EFFECT THROUGH 4 AM PST TUESDAY ACROSS THE COASTAL WATERS,
HOWEVER NEARSHORE ZONES (THOSE WITHIN 10 NM OF THE COAST) ARE
MORE LIKELY TO SEE EARLY HAZARD CANCELLATIONS AS CONDITIONS
IMPROVE THROUGH THIS EVENING. RELATIVELY WEAK EBB CURRENTS AT
THE MOUTH OF THE COLUMBIA RIVER OF 1-4 KT AT PEAK TIDE
COINCIDENT WITH THESE MARGINALLY HAZARDOUS SEAS ALSO MERIT
CONTINUATION OF THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR THE COLUMBIA RIVER
BAR THROUGH 1 AM PST TUESDAY.
MODEST HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING MIDWEEK WILL RETURN TRANQUIL WEATHER
AND BENIGN MARINE CONDITIONS TO THE REGION FROM TUESDAY THROUGH
THURSDAY AS SEAS FALL TO 5-8 FT WITH NORTHERLY WINDS OF 10-15 KT.
LONG-RANGE GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO FAVOR A RETURN TO MORE ACTIVE AND
IMPACTFUL WEATHER LATE IN THE WEEK AND THROUGH THE WEEKEND, WITH
SEAS OF 10-15 FT RETURNING AS EARLY AS THURSDAY NIGHT. MULTIPLE
FRONTAL SYSTEMS MAY BRING REPEATED CHANCES OF RAIN, GUSTY WINDS,
AND ELEVATED SEAS, HOWEVER AT THIS POINT, THE CHANCES OF HAZARDOUS
GALE-FORCE WIND GUSTS ARE ONLY 10-30% THROUGH THE WEEKEND. -36
PQR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
OR...NONE.
WA...NONE.
PZ...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 1 AM PST TUESDAY FOR PZZ210.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 AM PST TUESDAY FOR PZZ251>253-
271>273.
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