014
FXUS66 KPQR 300539 AAA
AFDPQR
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PORTLAND OR
939 PM PST THU JAN 29 2026
UPDATED AVIATION DISCUSSION AND PQR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES.
SYNOPSIS
OVERALL EXPECT THE CONTINUATION OF A PROGRESSIVE
SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW PATTERN INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH WEAK
WEATHER DISTURBANCES ARRIVING EVERY ~24-48 HOURS. DUE IN-PART
TO WARMER THAN NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND THE WEAK NATURE OF THESE
WEATHER SYSTEMS, LIMITED WEATHER RELATED IMPACTS ARE
ANTICIPATED OVER THE NEXT 4-7 DAYS. STARTING TUESDAY INTO THE
MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK CONFIDENCE INCREASES IN THE RETURN OF A
DRIER WEATHER PATTERN ALTHOUGH THERE IS SOME UNCERTAINTY AS TO
JUST HOW LONG THIS CHANGE MAY LAST.
SHORT TERM...NOW THROUGH SUNDAY
THIS AFTERNOON SATELLITE AND
RADAR OBSERVATIONS SHOW AMPLE CLOUD COVER AND LIGHT RAIN SPREAD
ACROSS MUCH THE REGION THANKS TO A WARM-FRNTAL SYSTEM WHICH IS
MOVING OVERHEAD. MODELS ARE IN EXCELLENT AGREEMENT DEPICTING AN
ACTIVE WEATHER PATTERN REMAINING IN PLACE INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK
THANKS TO AN EXTREMELY BROAD UPPER LEVEL TROUGH SITING OVER THE
NE PACIFIC STEERING WEATHER DISTURBANCES INTO THE REGION WITHIN
THE SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT LOCALLY. THROUGH THE WEEKEND
GENERALLY LIGHT PRECIPITATION (BY JANUARY STANDARDS) IS
EXPECTED AS THE MAIN AXIS OF MOISTURE HOLDS TO OUR NORTH ACROSS
THE OLYMPIC PENINSULA AND VANCOUVER ISLAND. AS SHOWN IN MODEL
RAINFALL TOTALS THROUGH THE WEEKEND, THE SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW AND
ORIENTATION OF THE FRONTAL SYSTEMS EXPECTED TO ARRIVE YET AGAIN ON
FRIDAY AND SUNDAY FAVOR THE HIGHEST RELATIVE QPF VALUES OVER
THE NORTH OREGON COAST, COAST RANGE, SW WASHINGTON COAST/WILLAPA
HILLS, AND SW WASHINGTON CASCADES. QPF VALUES WILL BE LESS
IN THE INLAND VALLEYS, ESPECIALLY IN THE SOUTHERN WILLAMETTE
VALLEY WHERE THE NBM PROJECTS ONLY A 40-50% CHANCE FOR RAINFALL
TO EXCEED 0.25 OF AN INCH THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH SUNDAY
AFTERNOON - THESE PROBABILITIES ARE CLOSER TO 80% NEAR THE
PORTLAND METRO AND 90-100% OVER THE COAST RANGE/CASCADES.
UNFORTUNATELY FOR SNOW RECREATION LOVERS, SNOW LEVELS CURRENTLY
SIT AROUND 5,500-6,500 FEET KEEPING ANY SNOWFALL CONFINED TO THE
HIGHER REACHES OF THE CASCADES, AND IT DOESN'T GET ANY BETTER
THIS WEEKEND. AFTER BRIEF BREAK IN THE PRECIPITATION TONIGHT THE
NEXT FRONTAL SYSTEM ARRIVES FRIDAY, HOWEVER, THE WARM FRONT
ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SYSTEM WILL PUSH SNOW LEVELS EVEN HIGHER TO
7,000-7,500 FEET DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS. WE'LL SEE ANOTHER
RELATIVE DRY BREAK ON SATURDAY, THEN SNOW LEVEL ONLY LOWER TO
~5,500 FEET ON SUNDAY WITH THE NEXT ROUND OF MOISTURE SO OUR
SNOWPACK WON'T RECEIVE MUCH HELP THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. -99/19
LONG TERM...SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY
AN UPPER-LEVEL
SHORTWAVE AND ACCOMPANYING COLD-FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL LIKELY BE
MOVING ACROSS THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST SUNDAY EVENING TO BEGIN THE
EXTENDED PERIOD WITH DETERMINISTIC AND ENSEMBLE MODELS QUICKLY
PROGRESSING IT TO OUR NORTHWEST. MODEL UNCERTAINTY GROWS
STARTING ON MONDAY IN REGARDS TO ANOTHER SHORTWAVE TROUGH
ATTEMPTING TO MOVING INTO THE REGION. A MORE AMPLIFIED SHORTWAVE
FEATURE WOULD INCREASE OUR PRECIPITATION CHANCES LOCALLY BUT
SEVERAL SOLUTIONS LIKE WHAT IS SHOWN IN THE 12Z CANADIAN
BOUNCES IT WELL TO OUR NORTH. HEADED THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF
NEXT WEEK THE LATEST ENSEMBLE CLUSTER ANALYSIS INDICATES ANOTHER
LARGE RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING OVER FAR WESTERN CONUS
WHICH WOULD USHER IN DRY CONDITIONS. WHILE THERE IS BETTER
AGREEMENT RESOLVING THE PLACEMENT OF THIS FEATURE TODAY COMPARED
TO YESTERDAY, THERE IS STILL SOME VARIANCE IN THE EXACT
LOCATION OF THE RIDGE AXIS. IN ANY CASE CONFIDENCE IS GROWING
FOR EASTERLY WINDS TO DEVELOP THROUGH THE CASCADES GAPS AND
COLUMBIA RIVER GORGE IN THE WEDNESDAY/THURSDAY TIME PERIOD NEXT
WEEK. THE EARLIEST ENSEMBLES HINT AT THE RETURN OF SOME
PRECIPITATION WOULD BE LATE NEXT WEEK INTO NEXT WEEKEND ASSUMING
THE RIDGE BUILDS OVERHEAD AS EXPECTED. -99/19
AVIATION
RAIN HAS ENDED ACROSS THE AREA FRIDAY EVENING AS A
WARM FRONT CONTINUES LIFTING NORTHWARD INTO NORTHWEST WA. CIGS
HAVE ALSO LIFTED TO ABOVE 8-10 KFT IN MOST LOCATIONS. HOWEVER,
SCATTERED CLOUDS AROUND 200-300 FT HAVE DEVELOPED FROM KSLE TO
KEUG WITH SURFACE VISIBILITIES LOWERING TO AROUND 1-3 SM AS FOG
TRIES TO DEVELOP. THIS IS IN RESPONSE TO A BRIEF PERIOD OF
CLEARING THAT OCCURRED FRIDAY EVENING OVER SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF
THE WILLAMETTE VALLEY, COUPLED WITH LIGHT WINDS. KHIO IS ALSO
OBSERVING OCCASIONAL VISIBILITY REDUCTIONS DOWN TO 1-3 SM. WHILE
VISIBILITIES AS LOW AS 1/2 SM CANNOT BE RULED OUT AT KSLE, KEUG,
AND KHIO, IT APPEARS VISIBILITIES SHOULD STAY AROUND OR ABOVE 1
SM THE MAJORITY OF THE TIME TONIGHT. IN ADDITION, HIGH CLOUDS ARE
EXPECTED TO FILL BACK IN BY 10-12Z FRIDAY OVER THE SOUTHERN
VALLEY, WHICH WILL LIKELY BRING IMPROVING VISIBILITIES. OVERALL
CONFIDENCE IN THE EXACT TIMING VISIBILITIES WILL LIFT AT KSLE,
KEUG, AND KHIO IS LOW.
AFTER 12-15Z FRIDAY, THE NEXT FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL APPROACH THE
COAST, BRINGING LOW-END VFR CIGS AND WIDESPREAD RAIN. BY 18Z
FRIDAY, THERE IS A 80% CHANCE CIGS WILL FALL BELOW 3000 FT ALONG
THE SOUTH WA/NORTH OR COAST, AND AN 80% CHANCE AT KONP BY 21Z.
WHILE RAIN WILL ALSO SPREAD INTO THE WILLAMETTE VALLEY AFTER 18Z
FRIDAY, VFR CIGS WILL MOST LIKELY CONTINUE FOR THE INLAND
TERMINALS.
WINDS ARE TRENDING LIGHT AND VARIABLE AROUND 5 KT OR LESS TONIGHT,
EXCEPT FROM KPDX TO KTTD WHERE EASTERLY TO SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS
CONTINUE, STRONGEST AT KTTD WITH GUSTS UP TO 25 KT. WILL NOTE
THAT WITH THE NEXT FRONTAL SYSTEM, STRONGER SOUTHWEST WINDS OF
35-45 KT AT 2 KFT AND LIGHTER WINDS AT THE SURFACE MAY RESULT IN
LOW LEVEL WIND SHEAR. WHILE SPEED SHEAR WILL BE THE MAIN CONCERN
FOR MOST TERMINALS, KPDX AND KTTD WILL SEE BOTH SPEED SHEAR AND
DIRECTIONAL SHEAR.
KPDX AND APPROACHES...EXPECT A BREAK FROM RAIN TONIGHT WITH VFR
CIGS. SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS AT THE SURFACE AND SOUTHWEST WINDS
AROUND 2 KFT MAY RESULT IN LOW LEVEL WIND SHEAR BEGINNING MID TO
LATE FRIDAY MORNING AS RAIN REDEVELOPS. -23/10
MARINE
ANOTHER FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL MOVE THROUGH THE WATERS
TONIGHT, MAINTAINING BREEZY SOUTHERLY WINDS. BUOY OBSERVATIONS AS
OF EARLY THURSDAY AFTERNOON SHOW SEAS OF 14-16 FT AT 13-14 SEC,
WITH SEAS FORECAST TO GRADUALLY SUBSIDE THIS EVENING. HAZARDOUS
SEAS WARNINGS REMAIN IN EFFECT FOR ALL WATERS INCLUDING THE
COLUMBIA RIVER BAR UNTIL 7 PM TONIGHT.
AS THE FRONT MOVES THROUGH TONIGHT, EXPECT SOUTHERLY WINDS TO
PEAK AROUND 20-25 KT WITH GUSTS UP TO 30 KT. OCCASIONAL GUSTS UP
TO 35 KT ARE POSSIBLE, MAINLY FOR THE OUTER WATERS (10+ NM
OFFSHORE). CHANCES FOR WIDESPREAD AND FREQUENT GALE FORCE WIND
GUSTS OF 34 KT OR STRONGER ARE ONLY AROUND 20-40%. SINCE
CONFIDENCE WAS NOT HIGH ENOUGH, GALE WARNINGS WERE NOT ISSUED FOR
TONIGHT'S SYSTEM. INSTEAD, SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES ARE IN EFFECT
FROM 7 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 7 PM FRIDAY. THERE IS HIGH
CONFIDENCE (>90% CHANCE) FOR SEAS REMAINING ABOVE 10 FT THROUGH
FRIDAY NIGHT AND A 50-80% CHANCE FOR SEAS EXCEEDING 13 FT, WITH
THE HIGHEST CHANCES 20+ NM OFFSHORE.
POTENTIAL FOR SMALL CRAFT CONDITIONS CONTINUE THROUGH THE WEEKEND
BEFORE MORE BENIGN MARINE WEATHER RETURNS NEXT WEEK. -10
BEACH HAZARDS
A LONG PERIOD WESTERLY SWELL OF 14-16 FT AT
14-15 SECONDS WILL RESULT IN A HIGH THREAT FOR SNEAKER WAVES
THROUGH THIS EVENING. WAVES CAN RUN UP SIGNIFICANTLY FARTHER ON A
BEACH THAN NORMAL, INCLUDING OVER ROCKS AND JETTIES. SNEAKER
WAVES CAN SUDDENLY KNOCK PEOPLE OFF OF THEIR FEET AND QUICKLY PULL
THEM INTO THE FRIGID OCEAN WHICH MAY LEAD TO SERIOUS INJURY OR
DROWNING. CAUTION SHOULD BE USED WHEN IN OR NEAR THE WATER,
ESPECIALLY THOSE WHO WILL BE RAZOR CLAMMING THIS WEEK. -10
PQR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
OR...NONE.
WA...NONE.
PZ...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM PST FRIDAY FOR PZZ210-251>253-
271>273.
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/PORTLAND
INTERACT WITH US VIA SOCIAL MEDIA:
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X.COM/NWSPORTLAND
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