287
FXUS66 KPQR 142217
AFDPQR
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PORTLAND OR
217 PM PST SAT FEB 14 2026
SYNOPSIS
LIGHT RAIN CONTINUES THIS AFTERNOON AS A FRONTAL BOUNDARY LIFTS
NORTH ACROSS NORTHWEST OREGON AND SOUTHWEST WASHINGTON.
CONDITIONS TREND MAINLY DRY ON SUNDAY AS THE PARENT LOW STALLS
WELL OFF THE NORTHERN CALIFORNIA COAST. A STRONG UPPER-LEVEL
TROUGH WILL DROP SOUTH EARLY NEXT WEEK, BRINGING COOLER, MORE
UNSTABLE CONDITIONS AND LOWERING SNOW LEVELS TO AROUND 1000 TO
1500 FEET. UNSETTLED AND SHOWERY WEATHER IS LIKELY TO PERSIST
THROUGH MUCH OF NEXT WEEK, WITH INCREASING POTENTIAL FOR HIGHER-
ELEVATION SNOWFALL LATER IN THE WEEK.
DISCUSSION...NOW THROUGH FRIDAY
AS OF THIS AFTERNOON, RADAR
AND SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOW WIDESPREAD LIGHT RAIN ASSOCIATED WITH
A LIFTING FRONTAL BOUNDARY. THE MOST PERSISTENT RAINFALL
REMAINS FOCUSED ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF NORTHWEST
OREGON (GENERALLY SOUTH OF SALEM AND TILLAMOOK), WHERE TOTALS
THROUGH TONIGHT MAY REACH AROUND ONE QUARTER INCH. ELSEWHERE,
RAINFALL AMOUNTS WILL GENERALLY REMAIN LIGHT, WITH MOST
LOCATIONS RECEIVING AROUND A TENTH OF AN INCH OR LESS.
SNOW LEVELS CURRENTLY REMAIN ELEVATED IN THE CASCADES AND SOUTHERN
WILLAMETTE VALLEY, GENERALLY AROUND 3000 TO 5000 FEET, WHILE
SNOW LEVELS ELSEWHERE ARE AROUND 2500 FEET. THIS WILL LIMIT
MEANINGFUL SNOW IMPACTS TO THE HIGHER CASCADES, WHERE AN
ADDITIONAL 1 TO 3 INCHES OF ACCUMULATION IS POSSIBLE THROUGH
TONIGHT. TRAVEL IMPACTS AT THE MAJOR CASCADE PASSES SHOULD
REMAIN LIMITED UNDER THESE RELATIVELY HIGH SNOW LEVELS.
BY SUNDAY, THE REGION TRANSITIONS INTO A RELATIVE LULL AS THE
UPPER-LEVEL PATTERN BRIEFLY BECOMES LESS ORGANIZED. THE CUTOFF
LOW DRIFTS SOUTHWARD OFF THE CALIFORNIA COAST WHILE NORTHWEST
OREGON AND SOUTHWEST WASHINGTON SIT BENEATH WEAK FLOW ALOFT.
THIS SHOULD ALLOW PRECIPITATION TO TAPER, WITH MUCH OF SUNDAY
EXPECTED TO REMAIN DRY OR ONLY SPOTTY LIGHT SHOWERS AT MOST.
ATTENTION THEN TURNS TO MONDAY AS A REINFORCING TROUGH DROPS
SOUTH FROM THE GULF OF ALASKA. THIS FEATURE WILL PUSH A COLD
FRONT THROUGH THE REGION AND INTRODUCE NOTICEABLY COOLER AIR
ALOFT. INCREASING INSTABILITY WILL SUPPORT MORE WIDESPREAD
SHOWERS BEGINNING MONDAY MORNING AND CONTINUING INTO MONDAY
NIGHT. SNOW LEVELS ARE EXPECTED TO LOWER TO AROUND 1000 TO 2000
FEET ACROSS THE COAST RANGE AND SOUTH WASHINGTON CASCADE
FOOTHILLS. WHILE ADVISORY-LEVEL SNOWFALL IS NOT CURRENTLY
FAVORED, PROBABILITIES OF IMPACTFUL ACCUMULATIONS IN THE COAST
RANGE AND CASCADES REMAIN IN THE 20 TO 40% RANGE THROUGH MONDAY
NIGHT.
ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE REMAINS IN STRONG AGREEMENT THAT A DEEP
UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH WILL SETTLE OVER THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST BY
TUESDAY. 850 MB TEMPERATURES FALLING INTO THE -4 TO -6 CELSIUS
RANGE WILL SUPPORT A COOL AND SHOWERY PATTERN. LOW PRESSURE IS
LIKELY TO BECOME VERTICALLY STACKED OFF THE NORTH OREGON COAST,
PROLONGING UNSETTLED CONDITIONS. WHILE OVERALL PRECIPITATION
AMOUNTS DO NOT APPEAR ESPECIALLY HIGH AT THIS TIME, LIGHT SNOW
ACCUMULATION ABOVE ROUGHLY 1000 FEET WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE
THROUGH MIDWEEK.
LOOKING TOWARD THE LATTER HALF OF THE WEEK, TROUGHING PERSISTS
ACROSS THE REGION, KEEPING CONDITIONS COOL AND PERIODICALLY
SHOWERY. THE HIGHEST POTENTIAL FOR MORE SUBSTANTIAL CASCADE
SNOWFALL CURRENTLY APPEARS TO BE THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY, WHEN
ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE INDICATES A 20 TO 30% PROBABILITY OF
EXCEEDING 12 INCHES IN 24 HOURS IN THE HIGHER CASCADES. IN THE
COAST RANGE, INCLUDING PASSES ALONG HIGHWAYS 6 AND 26,
PROBABILITIES OF EXCEEDING 4 INCHES DURING THAT SAME PERIOD
ARE AROUND 20 TO 30%.
ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE ALSO CONTINUES TO INDICATE A LOW-PROBABILITY
BUT NON-ZERO WINTER WEATHER SCENARIO LATE NEXT WEEK. CURRENT
SOLUTIONS SUGGEST ROUGHLY A 5 TO 10% CHANCE THAT A MORE
ORGANIZED DISTURBANCE THURSDAY COULD RESULT IN PRODUCING
ACCUMULATING SNOW IN PORTIONS OF THE LOWLAND VALLEYS. WHILE THE
MOST LIKELY OUTCOME REMAINS LITTLE TO NO ACCUMULATION AT VALLEY
FLOOR, A LOWER-END IMPACT SCENARIO COULD BRING AROUND 1 INCH OF
SNOW, WITH A WORST-CASE OUTCOME APPROACHING 2 INCHES IF
MESOSCALE BANDING DEVELOPS. CONFIDENCE IN THIS OUTCOME REMAINS
LOW AND FORECAST DETAILS WILL LIKELY EVOLVE AS WE APPROACH NEXT
WEEK. ~12
AVIATION
MOIST, SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT CONTINUES TODAY AND
TONIGHT AS A FRONTAL BOUNDARY REMAINS OVER SOUTHERN PARTS OF THE
FORECAST AREA. THE AVIATION FORECAST THROUGH 00Z MONDAY IS RATHER
COMPLICATED, WITH A MIXED BAG OF LIFR/IFR/MVFR/VFR FLIGHT
CONDITIONS LIKELY. EXPECT LIFR/IFR CONDITIONS TO BE MOST
PREDOMINANT TONIGHT INTO TOMORROW MORNING, WITH MVFR/VFR
CONDITIONS BEING MOST PREDOMINANT THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
SIMILAR TO LAST NIGHT/THIS MORNING, EXPECT SOME PATCHY FOG TO
DEVELOP OVER THE INTERIOR LOWLANDS TONIGHT, WHICH COULD RESULT IN
LOCALIZED LIFR CONDITIONS. HOWEVER, CONFIDENCE IS LOW REGARDING
EXACT VISIBILITIES ANY CEILINGS AT ANY GIVEN TERMINAL TONIGHT INTO
TOMORROW MORNING.
NOTE PERIODS OF LIGHT RAIN WILL CONTINUE OVER MUCH OF NORTHWEST
OREGON THROUGH AT LEAST 06Z SUNDAY. PRECIPITATION SHOULD
TRANSITION TO ISOLATED RAIN SHOWERS BETWEEN 06-12Z SUNDAY.
KPDX AND APPROACHES...EXPECT PERIODS OF LIGHT RAIN TODAY WITH A
MIX OF MVFR/VFR FLIGHT CONDITIONS AND LIGHT WINDS, TRENDING
TOWARDS IFR/MVFR TONIGHT. SIMILAR TO LAST NIGHT, PATCHY FOG MAY
DEVELOP NEAR THE TERMINAL TONIGHT, WHICH COULD RESULT IN A PERIOD OF
LIFR CONDITIONS. NOTE PROBABILITIES FOR BROKEN OR OVERCAST
CEILINGS BELOW 3000 FT INCREASE FROM 10-20% AT 00-01Z SUNDAY TO
70-80% BY 03-05Z SUNDAY, WHICH IS ALSO WHEN LIGHT RAIN IS EXPECTED
TO BEGIN AT THE TERMINAL. RAIN SHOULD GRADUALLY TAPER OFF AFTER
07Z SUNDAY WITH PROBABILITIES FOR CEILINGS BELOW 3000 FT
DECREASING TO 40-50%. HOWEVER, THIS IS PARTLY DUE TO THE FACT THAT
BREAKS IN CLOUD COVER ARE MORE LIKELY AT THAT TIME. THIS WILL
RESULT IN INCREASING CHANCES FOR PATCHY FOG AND LOW STRATUS
DEVELOPMENT AS MENTIONED ABOVE. CONFIDENCE IS LOW REGARDING EXACT
VISIBILITIES AND CEILINGS TONIGHT THROUGH TOMORROW MORNING. -23
MARINE
LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPS OFF THE NORTHERN CALIFORNIA COAST
TODAY WHILE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS WELL OFFSHORE. THIS HAS RESULTED
IN A NORTHEASTERLY FLOW REGIME OVER THE NORTHERN, CENTRAL, AND
SOUTHERN WATERS. WINDS AROUND 15-20 KT THIS AFTERNOON WILL
INCREASE THROUGH THIS EVENING WITH GUSTS UP TO 25-30 KT ACROSS THE
OUTER COASTAL WATERS, STRONGEST SOUTH OF CASCADE HEAD.
NORTHEASTERLY WINDS CONTINUE ON SUNDAY, BUT WILL GRADUALLY EASE IN
STRENGTH SUNDAY NIGHT. A WEST-NORTHWESTERLY SWELL WILL PERSIST
THROUGH THE WEEKEND WITH SEAS REMAINING WITHIN THE 8 TO 10 FOOT
RANGE, LOWEST SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THIS IS WHEN
CONDITIONS ARE MOST LIKELY TO FALL BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
CRITERIA.
HOWEVER, THIS BREAK WILL BE SHORT-LIVED AS A COLD FRONT WILL
BE APPROACHING THE WATERS BY EARLY MONDAY MORNING. THIS FRONT WILL
BRING A WIND SHIFT TO WESTERLY WINDS BY LATE MONDAY MORNING WITH
WIND GUSTS INCREASING TO AROUND 20 KT. WEAK LOW PRESSURE DROPS
SOUTH TOWARD THE NORTH OREGON COAST ON TUESDAY, BRINGING ANOTHER
WIND SHIFT WITH WINDS BECOMING MORE SOUTHERLY. WIND SPEEDS WILL
MOST LIKELY REMAIN BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THRESHOLDS, HOWEVER
ANOTHER NORTHWESTERLY SWELL IS EXPECTED TO BUILD SEAS AGAIN TO
AROUND 13 TO 15 FT ON TUESDAY. SEAS GRADUALLY DECREASE WEDNESDAY
INTO THURSDAY WITH WIND GUSTS MOST LIKELY RANGING BETWEEN 15-25
KT. CHANCES FOR GALE FORCE WIND GUSTS DURING THAT TIME ARE ONLY
AROUND 10%. -23/DH
BEACH HAZARDS
A HIGH THREAT FOR SNEAKER PERSISTS THROUGH
SUNDAY EVENING DUE TO A LONG PERIOD WESTERLY SWELL. WAVES CAN RUN
UP SIGNIFICANTLY FARTHER ON A BEACH THAN NORMAL, INCLUDING OVER
ROCKS AND JETTIES. SNEAKER WAVES CAN SUDDENLY KNOCK PEOPLE OFF OF
THEIR FEET AND QUICKLY PULL THEM INTO THE FRIGID OCEAN WHICH MAY
LEAD TO SERIOUS INJURY OR DROWNING. CAUTION SHOULD BE USED WHEN IN
OR NEAR THE WATER, ESPECIALLY THOSE WHO WILL BE RAZOR CLAMMING.
KEEP CHILDREN AND PETS AWAY FROM THE SURF ZONE. KEEP OFF OF
JETTIES, ROCKS AND LOGS NEAR THE SURF ZONE. IF YOU SEE SOMEONE
SWEPT INTO THE SEA DO NOT SWIM IN AFTER THEM. CALL 911 AND KEEP AN
EYE ON THEM UNTIL HELP ARRIVES. -10
PQR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
OR...NONE.
WA...NONE.
PZ...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 AM PST SUNDAY FOR PZZ210-251>253.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM PST SUNDAY FOR PZZ271>273.
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/PORTLAND
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X.COM/NWSPORTLAND
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