640
FXUS66 KPQR 151116
AFDPQR
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PORTLAND OR
416 AM PDT WED JUL 15 2026
SYNOPSIS
ANOTHER WARM DAY EXPECTED BEFORE A BRIEF PATTERN
SHIFT TO END THE WORK WEEK. RAIN CHANCES INCREASE TONIGHT INTO
THURSDAY WITH A SLIGHT CHANCE (10-20%) FOR THUNDERSTORMS INTO
THURSDAY MORNING. RAIN ACCUMULATION WILL GENERALLY BE
OROGRAPHICALLY DRIVEN. DRYING OCCURS STARTING FRIDAY THROUGH THE
WEEKEND AS TEMPERATURES HEAT UP ONCE AGAIN. MODERATE HEATRISK
FORECAST FOR URBAN AREAS ON SUNDAY AND MONDAY.
SHORT TERM...NOW THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT
ANOTHER DAY OF WARM
TEMPERATURES IN THE MID TO UPPER 80S ACROSS THE INTERIOR
LOWLANDS BEFORE A SHORT PERIOD OF CLOSER TO AVERAGE TEMPERATURES
ON THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. HIGH PRESSURE MAINTAINS CONTROL TO START
BUT WILL GRADUALLY GIVE WAY TO AN UPPER LEVEL CLOSED LOW THAT
WILL MOVE ONSHORE THIS EVENING AND INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS.
WRAP AROUND MOISTURE WILL INITIALLY SUPPORT SHOWERS AND
POSSIBLY THUNDERSTORMS (10-20% CHANCE) ALONG THE CASCADE CREST
OF CENTRAL AND NORTHERN OREGON THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. AS
THE LOW MOVES MORE OVERHEAD TONIGHT, CHANCES WEST OF THE CREST
INCREASE. CHANCES FOR MEASURABLE PRECIPITATION LATE WEDNESDAY
NIGHT INTO THURSDAY AFTERNOON FOR LOCATIONS NORTH HIGHWAY 20 AT
50-80% FROM SOUTH TO NORTH. NBM PROBABILITIES FOR 0.25 INCHES OF
RAINFALL HAVE DECREASED FOR MUCH OF THE INTERIOR LOWLANDS TO
20-30% WHILE CHANCES OVER THE COAST RANGE AND COAST REMAINS
AROUND 30-60%. SOME HI-RES MODELS ARE DEPICTING SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING OVER THE COAST RANGE AS SOUTHEAST
UPSLOPE FLOW HELPS CONVECTIVE INITIATION. CURRENT FORECAST HAS A
15-30% FOR THUNDERSTORMS OVER SOUTHWEST WASHINGTON AND
NORTHWEST OREGON NORTH OF HIGHWAY 20 INTO THURSDAY AFTERNOON.
CLOSER TO AVERAGE TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED ON THURSDAY AS THE
UPPER LOW SUPPORTS MORE CLOUD COVER AND LOWER 500 MB HEIGHTS
OVER THE AREA. HIGHS IN THE UPPER 70S EXPECTED ACROSS THE
INTERIOR LOWLANDS AND LOW TO MID 60S ALONG THE COAST. FRIDAY
WILL SEE A 3-5 DEGREE WARM-UP INLAND WITH HIGHS JUMPING INTO THE
LOW 80S AS THE UPPER LOW LIFTS NORTHWARD AND 500 MB HEIGHTS
REBOUND OVER THE REGION. -19
LONG TERM...SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY
WPC CLUSTER ANALYSIS
SHOWS DECENT AGREEMENT IN THE 500 MB PATTERN HEADING INTO THE
WEEKEND. RIDGING OVER THE CENTRAL CONUS IS EXPECTED TO REBUILD
INTO THE PACNW, SUPPORTING A WARMING TREND SATURDAY AND INTO
EARLY NEXT WEEK. THE INTERIOR LOWLANDS CAN EXPECTED HIGHS IN
THE MID TO UPPER 80S ON SATURDAY, BUILDING INTO THE LOW 90S FOR
SUNDAY AND MONDAY. IN THIS PATTERN, MARINE STRATUS IS LIKELY,
ESPECIALLY ALONG THE COAST THOUGH IT COULD TRANSITION DOWN THE
COLUMBIA RIVER INTO THE INTERIOR LOWLANDS. IF CLOUD COVER
BECOMES PERVASIVE, IT WILL HAVE AN IMPACT ON HIGH TEMPERATURES
AND MINIMUM HUMIDITY. THERE IS SOME SPREAD AMONG THE NBM IN
EXACT HIGH TEMPERATURES, RANGING FROM THE MID 80S TO UPPER 90S
IN THE 10TH-90TH PERCENTILES SO COULD SEE ADJUSTMENTS MOVING
FORWARD. MODERATE HEATRISK IS CURRENTLY FORECAST ACROSS THE
INTERIOR LOWLANDS, INCLUDING THE CASCADE FOOTHILLS, FOR BOTH OF
THESE DAYS. CHANCES FOR MAJOR HEATRISK ARE GENERALLY 10-30% FOR
THE PORTLAND METRO AND COLUMBIA RIVER GORGE. WARM TEMPERATURES
ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE INTO THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK AS MODELS
CONTINUE TO ANCHOR THE RIDGE OVER THE CONUS. -19/27
AVIATION
SOUTHERLY FLOW ALOFT WILL CONTINUE AS AN UPPER LEVEL
LOW SPINS OFFSHORE. VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO PERSIST INLAND
WHILE MARINE STRATUS PERSISTS ALONG THE COAST. CURRENTLY MVFR
CIGS FOR BOTH KAST AND KONP BUT COULD SEE A BRIEF PERIOD OF IFR
CONDITIONS. CONDITIONS ARE LIKELY TO IMPROVE TOWARD VFR AFTER
18-19Z WED, ESPECIALLY NEAR KAST, WHILE MVFR PROBS NEAR KONP
PERSIST AT AROUND 40-50% THROUGH WED AFTERNOON. STRATUS EXPECTED
TO BE MORE WIDESPREAD TONIGHT. WINDS NORTH TO NORTHWEST
INCREASING TO BETWEEN 5-10 KT LATE IN THE MORNING.
KPDX AND APPROACHES...VFR EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE
PERIOD. LIGHT WINDS BECOMING NORTHWEST 5-10 KT. -19
MARINE
BENIGN CONDITIONS WITH A TYPICAL SUMMERTIME PATTERN
EXPECTED THROUGH THE WEEK. NORTHERLY WINDS 10-15 KT EXPECTED
WITH AFTERNOON GUSTS REACHING TO AROUND 20 KT EACH DAY. SEAS
COULD BE CHOPPY AT TIMES WITH HEIGHTS 4-6 FEET BUT COULD SEE
SOME 7 FOOT SEAS AT 8-10 SECONDS. THERE IS A 30-60% CHANCE FOR
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY (SCA) CRITERIA WINDS FOR ALL WATERS
SATURDAY AFTERNOON INTO SUNDAY.
A SCA IS IN EFFECT UNTIL 9AM FOR ROUGH SEAS WITHIN THE COLUMBIA
RIVER BAR DUE TO A VERY STRONG EBB CURRENT LEADING TO SEAS OF 6
TO 7 FT. ANOTHER SCA FOR STRONG EBB CURRENT AND CHOPPY SEAS THURSDAY
MORNING FROM 4 AM TO 10 AM. -19
PQR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
OR...NONE.
WA...NONE.
PZ...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM PDT THIS MORNING FOR PZZ210.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 4 AM TO 10 AM PDT THURSDAY FOR
PZZ210.
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/PORTLAND
INTERACT WITH US VIA SOCIAL MEDIA:
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X.COM/NWSPORTLAND
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