142
FXUS66 KSEW 061701
AFDSEW
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SEATTLE WA
901 AM PST THU NOV 6 2025
SYNOPSIS
UNSETTLED WEATHER CONTINUES ON THURSDAY WITH PERIODS OF
MODERATE TO HEAVY RAIN AND BREEZY WINDS. NO BREAK IN THE ACTION
FOR FRIDAY BUT, UPPER LEVEL RIDGING WILL MOVE IN FOR THE
WEEKEND, WITH MOST OF WESTERN WASHINGTON LIKELY TO REMAIN DRY.
ACTIVE WEATHER IS ON TRACK TO RESUME EARLY NEXT WEEK.
UPDATE
IT'LL BE A FAIRLY ACTIVE DAY ACROSS THE REGION BETWEEN
COASTAL FLOODING, HIGH SURF, WIND, RAIN, THUNDERSTORMS, HIGH
ELEVATION SNOW, AND FLOODING ALONG THE SKOKOMISH RIVER. THE MAIN
CHANGE FOR THIS MORNING IS THE INCREASE IN THE WIND GUST
FORECAST FOR TODAY AHEAD OF THE FRONTAL SYSTEM THAT WILL SWEEP
ACROSS THE AREA. THIS ALSO LEAD TO THE EXPANSION OF THE WIND
ADVISORY TO INCLUDE THE ABERDEEN/HOQUIAM AREA AS WELL AS THE
AREA FROM PORT TOWNSEND/ISLAND COUNTY NORTHWARD TO THE BC
BORDER. OUTSIDE OF THOSE UPDATES, THE FORECAST REMAINS ON TRACK.
-WOLCOTT-
SHORT TERM /TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY/
WET WEATHER HAS BEEN OBSERVED ACROSS THE REGION AS CONVECTIVE
BANDS BROUGHT HEAVY RAINFALL ACROSS WESTERN WASHINGTON -
RESULTING IN ROADSIDE PONDING AND STANDING WATER OVER AREA
CORRIDORS LAST NIGHT. 1.12" OF RAIN WAS MEASURED HERE AT THE
OFFICE AS NOVEMBER 5TH WAS THE WETTEST DAY OF THE YEAR SO FAR
AT SEATTLE WFO.
POST-FRONTAL REGIME HERE THIS MORNING AS SHOWERS CONTINUE TO
STREAM ONSHORE. COVERAGE IS LESS WIDESPREAD THAN SEEN RECENTLY
BUT ANOTHER SHOT OF STEADY RAINFALL AND MOUNTAIN SNOW WILL
ARRIVE LATER TODAY AS AN ATMOSPHERIC RIVER TAKES AIM. A
DEEPENING OFFSHORE LOW AND ASSOCIATED FRONTAL SYSTEM ARE
RESPONSIBLE FOR STEERING IN THE MOISTURE, WHILE ALSO MAINTAINING
THE THREAT OF RIVER FLOODING, GUSTY WINDS, HIGH SEAS AND
THUNDERSTORMS. LINGERING SHOWERS ARE FAVORED INTO FRIDAY BUT, AN
UPPER-RIDGE OFFSHORE WILL BEGIN TO AMPLIFY OVER THE REGION
BRINGING DRIER WEATHER JUST IN TIME FOR THE WEEKEND. HIGH
TEMPERATURES THROUGHOUT THE SHORT-TERM WILL RANGE IN THE 50S
WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE 40S.
IMPACTS AND HAZARDS THROUGHOUT THE SHORT-TERM:
SNOW: A WINTER STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL FRIDAY
MORNING. HEAVY SNOW, WITH UP TO A FOOT ALONG HIGHWAY 20 IS IN
THE FORECAST. ADDITIONAL ACCUMULATIONS ON MOUNT BAKER WILL TOP
OUT AROUND 1 TO 2 FEET WITH THE HIGHEST ELEVATIONS OF THE
WHATCOM AND SKAGIT COUNTIES IN EXCESS OF 30 INCHES.
COASTAL FLOODING AND HIGH SURF: A COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY HAS
BEEN ISSUED FOR LOCATIONS ALONG THE STRAIT OF JUAN DE FUCA
(INCLUDING NEAH BAY AND PORT ANGELES), AS WELL AS INTERIOR GRAYS
HARBOR COUNTY (INCLUDING ABERDEEN) THROUGH TONIGHT.
ADDITIONALLY, HIGH SURF MAY COMPOUND COASTAL FLOODING IMPACTS,
ESPECIALLY ALONG THE COAST ON THURSDAY WITH SEAS UPWARDS OF 20
TO 25 FT.
WIND: WINDY CONDITIONS ARE IN THE FORECAST FOR TODAY AS WELL,
WITH GUSTS UPWARDS OF 45 TO 50 MPH EXPECTED ALONG THE COAST.
WHILE NOT AS STRONG, THE EASTERN STRAIT OF JUAN DE FUCA AND
NORTHERN INTERIOR WILL SEE BREEZY CONDITIONS ALSO. WINDS WILL
PEAK ALONG THE COAST AROUND MIDDAY AND OVER THE INTERIOR LATER
IN THE AFTERNOON BEFORE GRADUALLY TAPERING OFF OVERNIGHT INTO
FRIDAY MORNING.
LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
MODELS HAVE THE AFOREMENTIONED RIDGE AXIS EAST OF THE CASCADES
SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY. SLIGHT CHANCE (15-20%) POPS REMAIN
BUT WILL BE CONFINED TO THE NORTH COAST AND NORTHERN CASCADES.
CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION INCREASE SUNDAY EVENING INTO MONDAY
MORNING AS A FRONT OFFSHORE SPLITS AND DIES ON ARRIVAL. MODELS
ARE HINTING AT ANOTHER TASTE OF BRIEF RIDGING AROUND MIDWEEK.
TEMPERATURES WON'T STRAY TOO FAR FROM AVERAGE, PEAKING ON SUNDAY
NEAR 60 F BEFORE FALLING BACK TO THE MID TO UPPER 50S
THEREAFTER.
41
AVIATION
SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE DAY AS
AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH MOVES ACROSS THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST. RADAR
CONTINUES TO SHOW SHOWER ACTIVITY CONTINUING ACROSS THE MAJORITY OF
THE AREA THIS MORNING, WHICH HAS BROUGHT A MIXED BAG OF CEILINGS TO
THE AREA TERMINALS. PRIMARILY EXPECT CIGS TO RANGE BETWEEN VFR AND
MVFR THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS WITH PERIODIC SHOWER ACTIVITY, THOUGH
ISOLATED IFR CIGS AND VISIBILITIES MAY DEVELOP FOR ANY TERMINALS
UNDER HEAVIER SHOWERS. EXPECT CIGS TO BECOME MORE WIDESPREAD MVFR BY
THIS AFTERNOON AS A COLD FRONT MOVES ACROSS THE AREA AND BRINGS
ANOTHER ROUND OF WIDESPREAD RAIN. RAINFALL RATES WILL AGAIN PEAK
THIS AFTERNOON INTO THIS EVENING WITH THE FRONTAL SYSTEM. ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY WILL BE POSSIBLE AGAIN TODAY, THOUGH
CONFIDENCE IN OCCURRENCE/EXTENT IS TOO LOW FOR INCLUSION IN TAFS AT
THIS TIME. SOUTHERLY WINDS REMAIN BREEZY IN SPOTS EARLY THIS
MORNING, THOUGH EXPECT WINDS TO BRIEFLY EASE OVER THE NEXT FEW
HOURS. SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL PICK UP AGAIN BY THE AFTERNOON HOURS,
WITH WIND GUSTS BETWEEN 25-35 KT POSSIBLE AT TIMES.
KSEA...VFR CIGS PRESENTLY THIS MORNING WITH CONTINUED SHOWERS AT
TIMES. EXPECT A MIX OF VFR/MVFR CIGS THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS, WITH
CIGS PRIMARILY RANGING BETWEEN 015-035 FEET. CIGS WILL BECOME MORE
PREDOMINANTLY MVFR BY THIS AFTERNOON AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES THE
TERMINAL AND VISIBILITIES MAY BRIEFLY LOWER TOWARDS 4-6 SM IN ANY
HEAVIER SHOWERS THIS AFTERNOON. WINDS ARE STILL BETWEEN 10-15 KT
SUSTAINED AND WILL LIKELY INCREASE AGAIN BETWEEN 18-21Z. GUSTS TO 25-
35 KT WILL BE POSSIBLE AT THE TERMINAL THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AND
EVENING HOURS BEFORE WINDS SUBSIDE DURING THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD.
14/21
MARINE
A FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA WATERS
TODAY, BRINGING GALES TO THE COASTAL WATERS AND TO THE WATERS OF
THE STRAIT OF JUAN DE FUCA. ELSEWHERE, FOR THE MAJORITY OF THE
INTERIOR, EXPECT WINDS TO INCREASE TO SMALL CRAFT STRENGTH
THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS AND TO REMAIN BREEZY THROUGH THIS
EVENING. SEAS WILL ALSO BUILD TOWARDS 20 FT TODAY OVER THE
COASTAL WATERS, BEFORE GRADUALLY SUBSIDING ON FRIDAY. WIND AND
WAVE CONDITIONS WILL EASE AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE AREA
WATERS ON FRIDAY. A LULL IN THE ACTIVE WEATHER PATTERN IS
EXPECTED THIS WEEKEND, HOWEVER THE PATTERN BECOMES ACTIVE AGAIN
BY EARLY NEXT WEEK AS ADDITIONAL SYSTEMS MOVE ACROSS THE AREA
WATERS.
14
HYDROLOGY
A FLOOD WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE SKOKOMISH RIVER AT
POTLACH. ADDITIONAL RAINFALL TODAY WILL RESULT IN FURTHER RISES
ON THE SKOKOMISH RIVER, LIKELY KEEPING THE RIVER ABOVE FLOOD
STAGE INTO FRIDAY. ADDITIONAL RAINFALL TOTALS OVER THE SOUTH
SLOPES OF THE OLYMPICS TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING CONTINUE TO
BE IN THE 2 TO 4 INCH RANGE WITH LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS
POSSIBLE. SNOW LEVELS WILL RANGE BETWEEN 5500-7000 FT.
RAINFALL AMOUNTS IN THE CASCADES FORECAST TO BE A LITTLE LESS, IN
THE 1 TO 3 INCH RANGE. SNOW LEVELS AROUND 5000 FT THIS MORNING
THEN RISING THURSDAY AFTERNOON TO 6000-6500 FT. NO FLOODING IS
PREDICTED AT THIS TIME FOR RIVERS FLOWING OFF THE CASCADES. THE
SKAGIT, SNOQUALMIE, SKYKOMISH AND SNOHOMISH COULD GET INTO
ACTION STAGE WITH THE HEAVIER RAIN IN THE HEADWATERS.
29/41
SEW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
WA...WIND ADVISORY FROM NOON TODAY TO 7 PM PST THIS EVENING FOR
ISLAND COUNTY-LOWLANDS OF WESTERN SKAGIT AND NORTHWESTERN
SNOHOMISH COUNTIES-LOWLANDS OF WESTERN WHATCOM COUNTY-
PORT TOWNSEND AREA-SAN JUAN COUNTY.
WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 10 AM PST FRIDAY FOR CASCADES OF
WHATCOM AND SKAGIT COUNTIES.
COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY UNTIL 3 PM PST THIS AFTERNOON FOR
EASTERN STRAIT OF JUAN DE FUCA-LOWER CHEHALIS RIVER
VALLEY-WESTERN STRAIT OF JUAN DE FUCA.
COASTAL FLOOD WARNING UNTIL 10 PM PST THIS EVENING FOR GRAYS
HARBOR COUNTY COAST-NORTHERN WASHINGTON COAST.
HIGH SURF ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM PST THIS EVENING FOR GRAYS
HARBOR COUNTY COAST-NORTHERN WASHINGTON COAST.
WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM PST THIS EVENING FOR GRAYS HARBOR
COUNTY COAST-LOWER CHEHALIS RIVER VALLEY-NORTHERN
WASHINGTON COAST.
PZ...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 PM PST THIS EVENING FOR GRAYS
HARBOR BAR.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 1 PM PST THIS AFTERNOON FOR WEST
ENTRANCE U.S. WATERS STRAIT OF JUAN DE FUCA.
GALE WARNING FROM 1 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 3 AM PST FRIDAY FOR
WEST ENTRANCE U.S. WATERS STRAIT OF JUAN DE FUCA.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM PST THIS MORNING FOR CENTRAL
U.S. WATERS STRAIT OF JUAN DE FUCA-EAST ENTRANCE U.S.
WATERS STRAIT OF JUAN DE FUCA.
GALE WARNING UNTIL 3 AM PST FRIDAY FOR CENTRAL U.S. WATERS
STRAIT OF JUAN DE FUCA-EAST ENTRANCE U.S. WATERS STRAIT
OF JUAN DE FUCA.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM PST THIS EVENING FOR ADMIRALTY
INLET-NORTHERN INLAND WATERS INCLUDING THE SAN JUAN
ISLANDS-PUGET SOUND AND HOOD CANAL.
GALE WARNING UNTIL 4 PM PST THIS AFTERNOON FOR COASTAL WATERS
FROM CAPE FLATTERY TO JAMES ISLAND 10 TO 60 NM-COASTAL
WATERS FROM CAPE FLATTERY TO JAMES ISLAND OUT 10 NM-
COASTAL WATERS FROM JAMES ISLAND TO POINT GRENVILLE 10 TO
60 NM-COASTAL WATERS FROM JAMES ISLAND TO POINT GRENVILLE
OUT 10 NM-COASTAL WATERS FROM POINT GRENVILLE TO CAPE
SHOALWATER 10 TO 60 NM-COASTAL WATERS FROM POINT
GRENVILLE TO CAPE SHOALWATER OUT 10 NM.
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