004
FXUS66 KSEW 201039
AFDSEW
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SEATTLE WA
239 AM PST FRI FEB 20 2026
SYNOPSIS
WEAK RIDGING WILL START TO BUILD INTO THE REGION TODAY FOR DRIER
AND WARMER WEATHER. THE PATTERN WILL CHANGE AGAIN OVER THE
WEEKEND AS AN UPPER- LOW DIGS OVER THE OFFSHORE WATERS, BRINGING
SEVERAL ROUNDS OF LOWLAND RAIN, MOUNTAIN SNOW AND GUSTY WINDS
THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK.
SHORT TERM /TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY/
RECENT RADAR IMAGERY SHOWS
SOME SCATTERED SHOWERS ALONG THE OFFSHORE WATERS, ALONG WITH
SOME SHOWERS IN THE OLYMPICS. LOW TEMPERATURES THIS MORNING
HAVE BEEN IN THE MID TO UPPER 20S ACROSS MUCH OF THE INTERIOR,
WITH LOWER VALUES ESPECIALLY IN WESTERN WHATCOM COUNTY WHERE A
COLD WEATHER ADVISORY CONTINUES THIS MORNING AND WITH WIND
CHILL VALUES BETWEEN 15-20 F. ALONG WITH THE COOL TEMPS THIS
MORNING, WITH THE ISOLATED SHOWER ACTIVITY AT THE COAST AND THE
OLYMPICS - COULD SEE A BRIEF MIX OF RAIN/SNOW IN THESE
LOCATIONS, BUT WITH SHOWERS CONTINUING TO DRY OUT AS A RIDGE
BUILDS, THIS CHANCE WILL DECREASE IN THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS.
DRIER WEATHER IN STORE THIS AFTERNOON ALONG WITH RELATIVELY
WARMER AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES IN THE MID 40S. ENSEMBLES CONTINUE
TO SHOW A PATTERN PROGRESSION HEADING INTO THE WEEKEND, AS THE
RIDGE AXIS WILL MOVE EASTWARD, ALLOWING A UPPER LEVEL LOW TO DIG
SOUTHWARD FROM THE GULF OF ALASKA AND TO MEANDER OVER THE
WATERS OF THE WEST COAST. THIS UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL PUSH
SHORTWAVE DISTURBANCES INTO THE AREA, ESPECIALLY ON SATURDAY,
WITH THE RETURN OF LOWLAND RAIN AND MOUNTAIN SNOWFALL WITH SNOW
LEVELS GENERALLY AROUND 2000 TO 3000 IN THE MOUNTAINS. WINDS
WILL ALSO INCREASE ON SATURDAY, WITH BREEZY EASTERLY WINDS IN
THE CASCADE GAPS AND ALONG THE COAST. TEMPERATURES WILL ALSO
FEEL WARMER ON SATURDAY, WITH AFTERNOON HIGHS IN THE UPPER 40S,
MAYBE EVEN REACHING THE LOWER 50S IN SOME SPOTS.
LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/
THE AFOREMENTIONED LOW LOOKS TO CONTINUE TO STAY AROUND SUNDAY
AND MONDAY, ALLOWING PRECIPITATION TO CONTINUE IN WAVES. HIGH
TEMPERATURES WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE LOW 50S FOR MOST OF THE
REGION. THE PATTERN CONTINUES TO REMAIN UNSETTLED WITH MULTIPLE
ROUNDS OF PRECIPITATION THROUGHOUT THE LONG TERM, ESPECIALLY
WITH CONTINUOUS MOUNTAIN SNOWFALL.
28
AVIATION
NORTH TO NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT WILL MORE BECOME WESTERLY
THROUGH THE DAY AS A WEAK TRANSIENT RIDGE MOVES ONSHORE.
CONDITIONS ARE VFR FOR ALL THE TERMINALS EARLY THIS MORNING,
WITH A DRIER AIRMASS PLACE IN THE LOWER LEVELS. SHOULD ANY MVFR
CEILINGS DEVELOP THIS MORNING, THEY WILL LIKELY REMAIN SOUTH OF
KSEA, MAINLY IMPACTING TERMINALS LIKE KOLM FOR A FEW HOURS.
OTHERWISE, EXPECT MOSTLY VFR CONDITIONS TO PERSIST FOR THE
MAJORITY OF THE TERMINALS THROUGH THE DAY WITH MID TO HIGH CLOUD
COVERING STREAMING IN OVERHEAD. A FEW SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED TO
DEVELOP LATER THIS MORNING INTO THIS AFTERNOON, BUT LOOK TO STAY
MAINLY WEST OF PUGET SOUND. AS A RESULT, TERMINALS ALONG THE
COAST MAY BRIEFLY SEE CONDITIONS DROP TO MVFR IN ANY HEAVIER
SHOWER ACTIVITY. SURFACE WINDS ARE LIGHT THIS MORNING AND HAVE
STARTED TO BACK TO THE EAST AND SOUTHEAST. WINDS WILL REMAIN
LIGHT ACROSS THE MAJORITY OF THE AREA, WITH A SLIGHT UPTICK TO
8-12 KTS EXPECTED ALONG THE COAST.
KSEA...VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. A FEW
LIGHT SHOWERS MAY DRIFT INTO THE VICINITY OF THE TERMINAL THIS
AFTERNOON, BUT DO NOT EXPECT MUCH IN THE WAY OF IMPACT. SURFACE
WINDS HAVE STARTED TO TRANSITION BACK TO THE SE AND REMAIN LIGHT
AT 6 KT OR LESS AND LOOK TO REMAIN SO THROUGH THE DAY.
14
MARINE
LIGHT OFFSHORE FLOW WILL CONTINUE TODAY WITH A BROAD SURFACE
TROUGH OVER THE COASTAL WATERS. SEAS WILL GENERALLY HOVER
BETWEEN 4-7 FT. A STRONG SYSTEM WILL MOVE INTO THE AREA WATERS
OVER THE WEEKEND, INCREASING OFFSHORE FLOW AND LIKELY BRINGING
GALES TO THE COASTAL WATERS AND PORTIONS OF THE INLAND WATERS
THROUGHOUT THE WEEKEND. SEAS WILL BUILD AS A RESULT, WITH THE
LATEST PROBABILISTIC GUIDANCE SUGGESTING BETWEEN A 60-80 PERCENT
CHANCE OF SEAS BUILDING INTO THE 18 FT OR LARGER RANGE OVER THE
COASTAL WATERS THIS WEEKEND, WITH A SIGNIFICANT SOUTHERLY
CONTRIBUTION.
AN ACTIVE PATTERN WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK
AS ADDITIONAL DISTURBANCES MOVE ACROSS THE AREA WATERS. THOUGH
NOT AS STRONG AS THE SYSTEM OVER THE WEEKEND, THESE SYSTEM WILL
LIKELY BRINGING ADDITIONAL HEADLINES TO THE AREA WATERS.
14
HYDROLOGY
NO RIVER FLOODING IS EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT SEVEN DAYS BUT
LATER NEXT WEEK CHANCES INCREASE SIGNIFICANTLY FOR FLOODING ON
THE SKOKOMISH RIVER. STARTING THIS WEEKEND THROUGH NEXT WEEK
THERE WILL BE MULTIPLE ROUNDS OF WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION ALONG
WITH WARMING TEMPERATURES TO RAISE THE SNOW LEVEL. WITH THE
THIN MOUNTAIN SNOWPACK AND EXISTENCE OF LOW ELEVATION SNOW, RAIN
ON SNOW COULD PRODUCE ENOUGH SNOW MELT GETTING ADDED TO THE
OTHERWISE UNIMPRESSIVE FORECAST PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS TO RESULT
IN FLOODING.
SEW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
WA...COLD WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM PST THIS MORNING FOR
LOWLANDS OF WESTERN WHATCOM COUNTY.
PZ...GALE WATCH FROM LATE TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING FOR
CENTRAL U.S. WATERS STRAIT OF JUAN DE FUCA-WEST ENTRANCE
U.S. WATERS STRAIT OF JUAN DE FUCA.
GALE WATCH FROM LATE TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY AFTERNOON FOR EAST
ENTRANCE U.S. WATERS STRAIT OF JUAN DE FUCA.
GALE WATCH FROM LATE TONIGHT THROUGH LATE SATURDAY NIGHT FOR
COASTAL WATERS FROM CAPE FLATTERY TO JAMES ISLAND 10 TO
60 NM-COASTAL WATERS FROM CAPE FLATTERY TO JAMES ISLAND
OUT 10 NM-COASTAL WATERS FROM JAMES ISLAND TO POINT
GRENVILLE 10 TO 60 NM-COASTAL WATERS FROM JAMES ISLAND TO
POINT GRENVILLE OUT 10 NM-COASTAL WATERS FROM POINT
GRENVILLE TO CAPE SHOALWATER 10 TO 60 NM-COASTAL WATERS
FROM POINT GRENVILLE TO CAPE SHOALWATER OUT 10 NM.
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