753
FXUS66 KSEW 150311
AFDSEW
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SEATTLE WA
811 PM PDT SUN AUG 14 2022
UPDATE /0815 PM/
NO UPDATES TO THE FORECAST THIS EVENING. THE
PREVIOUS FORECAST DISCUSSION WITH UPDATED AVIATION AND MARINE
SECTIONS IS BELOW.
SYNOPSIS
DRY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL
DAYS. THE REGION WILL SEE NEAR SEASONAL TEMPERATURES FOR THE NEXT
COUPLE OF DAYS ALSO BEFORE A BUILDING RIDGE WARM THINGS UP
TOWARDS MIDWEEK. TEMPERATURES MAY BEGIN TO GRADUALLY COOL DOWN
TOWARDS THE WEEK'S END.
SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
LOOKING AT THE BIG
PICTURE, THERE'S BROAD TROUGHING APPARENT OVER THE GULF OF ALASKA
IN CONCERT WITH RIDGING IN WEST-CENTRAL CONUS. HERE IN THE
PACIFIC NORTHWEST, WE'RE SOMEWHERE IN BETWEEN WITH SOUTHWESTERLY
FLOW ALOFT. WE LOOK TO STAY IN THIS REGIME TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY
WITH TEMPERATURES NOT TOO FAR FROM SEASONAL VALUES. HOWEVER,
TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY WE'LL SEE A RIDGE BUILDING OUT OF THE
GREAT BASIN AND INTO THE REGION. TEMPERATURES WILL BEGIN TO WARM
DUE TO LARGE SCALE SUBSIDENCE. WE'LL GO FROM THE UPPER 70S TO LOW
80S FOR BOTH MONDAY AND TUESDAY TO LOW 80S TO POSSIBLY NEAR 90 ON
WEDNESDAY FOR MUCH OF THE INTERIOR.
LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/
UPPER LEVEL RIDGING LOOKS
TO REMAIN ON THURSDAY AS HIGH TEMPERATURES BEGIN TO PEAK. WE'LL
SEE ANOTHER DAY OF TEMPS IN THE 80S TO LOW 90S. AS WE GO TOWARDS
THE WEEKEND, THERE COULD BE AN INTRUSION OF MARITIME AIR INTO THE
AREA, HELPING TO COOL THINGS DOWN TO SOME DEGREE. THERE'S STILL
SOME DISAGREEMENT ON THE HOW PATTERN WILL EVOLVE BUT WE MAY SEE
THE AFOREMENTIONED RIDGE SHIFT MORE INLAND, OPENING THE DOOR FOR
UPPER LEVEL TROUGHING ALONG THE WEST COAST. BUT BEFORE WE GET
THERE, SOME NOTABLY WARM DAYS ARE IN THE OFFING WHICH WILL BRING A
MODERATE RISK OF HEAT ILLNESS FOR THOSE MORE SUSCEPTIBLE TO HEAT
(SUCH AS THOSE WITHOUT ADEQUATE COOLING OR HYDRATION).
MCMILLIAN
AVIATION
WEST TO SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL CONTINUE FOR WESTERN
WASHINGTON TONIGHT AND MONDAY WITH AN UPPER TROUGH OFF THE COAST.
AT THE SURFACE, WEAK ONSHORE FLOW WILL CONTINUE AS WELL WITH HIGH
PRESSURE OFFSHORE AND LOWER PRESSURE INLAND. THE AIR MASS WILL BE
STABLE.
MOSTLY CLEAR TONIGHT WITH SOME PASSING HIGH CLOUDS. AREAS OF LOW
CLOUDS ARE EXPECTED TO REDEVELOP AT THE COAST LATE AND SPREAD
PARTIALLY INLAND MONDAY MORNING DOWN THE STRAIT OF JUAN DE FUCA
AND THROUGH THE CHEHALIS GAP.
KSEA...MOSTLY CLEAR. PATCHY LOW CLOUDS OVER THE SOUTH SOUND
MONDAY MORNING ARE NOT EXPECTED TO AFFECT THE TERMINAL. NORTHWEST
WIND 5-10 KNOTS WILL EASE AND BECOME MORE NORTHERLY TONIGHT. 33/16
MARINE
ONSHORE FLOW WILL PREVAIL FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS
WITH HIGH PRESSURE OFFSHORE AND LOWER PRESSURE INLAND. WESTERLY
WINDS DOWN THE STRAIT OF JUAN DE FUCA WILL LIKELY REACH SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORY STRENGTH EACH EVENINGS ALTHOUGH IT WILL BE
MARGINAL MOST DAYS. STRONGER ONSHORE WILL DEVELOP LATE IN THE
WEEK. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY STRENGTH NORTHWEST WINDS ARE ALSO
POSSIBLE OVER PARTS OF THE COASTAL WATERS IN THE MIDDLE OF THE
WEEK. 16
HYDROLOGY
THE DAILY HYDROLOGY DISCUSSION HAS ENDED UNTIL THE
START OF THE NEXT RAINY SEASON; IT WILL ONLY BE UPDATED AS NEEDED
UNTIL THEN.
SEW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
WA...NONE.
PZ...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 5 AM PDT MONDAY FOR CENTRAL U.S.
WATERS STRAIT OF JUAN DE FUCA-EAST ENTRANCE U.S. WATERS
STRAIT OF JUAN DE FUCA.
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/SEATTLE
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