000
FXUS66 KSEW 292211
AFDSEW
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SEATTLE WA
211 PM PST SAT NOV 29 2025
SYNOPSIS
COOLER AND DRIER WEATHER IS IN STORE FOR THE MAJORITY OF THE
WEEK AS HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES INTO THE AREA. SOME WEAK
DISTURBANCES MAY DROP INTO THE REGION ON THE EDGE OF THE RIDGE
BUT IT WON'T AMOUNT TO MEANINGFUL PRECIPITATION ACCUMULATION. A
STRONGER SYSTEM MAY APPROACH THE REGION LATE NEXT WEEK.
SHORT TERM /TODAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/
HIGH PRESSURE IS KEEPING CONDITIONS STABLE WITH HIGH CLOUDS
OVERHEAD. THIS WILL BE THE THEME FOR THE NEXT FEW DAYS WITH
TEMPERATURES IN THE UPPER 40S. SOME LIGHT ECHOES ARE PRESENT ON
RADAR, WHERE A FEW HUNDREDTHS OF AN INCH HAVE FALLEN IN THE
BELLINGHAM AREA SO FAR THIS AFTERNOON. THE REST OF THE AREA WILL
LIKELY ONLY SEE ISOLATED SHOWERS AS NORTHEASTERLY FLOW KEEPS THE
NEAR SURFACE LAYER DRY.
SOME CLEARING IS EXPECTED EARLY TOMORROW MORNING, WITH LOW
TEMPERATURES IN THE 30S WHERE FROST COULD MATERIALIZE ON
SURFACES BEFORE SUNRISE. THERE WILL BE A MIX OF CLOUDS AND SUN
TOMORROW, BUT IT LOOKS LIKE MORE PROLONGED SUN BREAKS COULD BE
IN STORE FOR SUNDAY. THE NEXT WEAK DISTURBANCE WILL BRING LIGHT
RAIN TO THE AREA LATE MONDAY AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING.
RAINFALL AMOUNTS WILL BE LIGHT WITH THIS SYSTEM, WHERE ONLY A
COUPLE HUNDREDTHS TO UP TO A TENTH OF AN INCH IS EXPECTED. SNOW
LEVELS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN RIGHT AT TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE PASS
LEVELS IN THE CASCADES AS WELL FOR LIGHT SNOW ACCUMULATION AT
BEST.
LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/
PRECIPITATION WILL TAPER
OFF FROM NORTH TO SOUTH ON TUESDAY, WITH MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES
EXPECTED THROUGHOUT THE REST OF THE DAY. HIGHS THROUGH WEDNESDAY
WILL REMAIN IN THE UPPER 40S WITH COLD OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE MID
30S FOR MUCH OF PUGET SOUND, AND 20S IN THE CASCADES AND
ADJACENT FOOTHILLS.
THE PATTERN WILL BECOME SLIGHTLY MORE UNSETTLED LATE IN THE WEEK
AS A SLIGHTLY WETTER SYSTEM ENTERS THE REGION AROUND A
FLATTENING EASTERN PACIFIC RIDGE. THERE IS STILL A SIGNIFICANT
AMOUNT OF UNCERTAINTY ON THE TIMING OF THE RIDGE BEGINNING TO
FLATTEN OUT AND WHAT THE LATE WEEK SYSTEM LOOKS LIKE IN TERMS OF
PRECIPITATION. THE ENSEMBLES REMAIN FAIRLY PERSISTENT IN THE
RIDGE WINNING OUT WHERE THE DETERMINISTIC MODELS AGREE MORE ON
THE PATTERN CHANGE.
21
AVIATION
MOSTLY VFR CIGS ACROSS ALL TERMINALS THIS AFTERNOON,
WITH THE ONLY EXCEPTION IN MVFR BEING CLM. WINDS HAVE BEEN
GENERALLY LIGHT AND NORTHEASTERLY THIS AFTERNOON, WHICH WILL
CONTINUE THROUGHOUT THE TAF PERIOD. THERE ARE SOME LIGHT ECHOES
ON RADAR THIS AFTERNOON, BUT THE PRECIPITATION IS GOING TO
STRUGGLE TO REACH THE GROUND GIVEN A DRIER SURFACE LAYER, BUT
WILL MAINTAIN VCSH IN SOME OF THE TAFS AS THE SHOWERS PROGRESS
THROUGH THE REGION THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THE ONLY LOCATION
THAT WILL POTENTIALLY HAVE FOG TO CONTEND WITH OVERNIGHT WILL BE
OLM AND AREAS THROUGH THE CHEHALIS VALLEY BUT WILL NOT LIKELY BE
WIDESPREAD.
KSEA...
VFR AT THE TERMINAL THIS AFTERNOON, WITH LIGHT WINDS. WIND
DIRECTION HAS BEEN FROM MULTIPLE DIRECTIONS SO FAR THIS
AFTERNOON, INCLUDING SOME SOUTHERLIES, BUT AFTER AROUND 00Z,
EXPECT DOMINANT ENE WINDS TO CONTINUE BETWEEN 4-6 KTS. LATE THIS
EVENING, EXPECT SOME MID CLOUDS TO PROGRESS DOWN FROM THE NORTH
FOR A SCT TO FEW DECK AROUND 030 THAT WILL PERSIST THROUGHOUT
THE OVERNIGHT HOURS BUT IS UNLIKELY TO FORM A CIG.
21
MARINE
HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD OVER AREA WATERS
THROUGHOUT THE NEXT WEEK, WITH A SERIES OF SYSTEMS CROSSING THE
WATERS. WHILE CONDITIONS REMAIN BENIGN TODAY, A WEAK FRONT WILL PASS
OVER THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST LATER ON MONDAY, BRINGING IN ELEVATED
NORTHWEST WINDS OVER THE OUTER COASTAL WATERS NEARING SCA CRITERIA.
AN ADDITIONAL WEATHER SYSTEM TOWARDS THE END OF NEXT WEEK WILL BRING
IN ELEVATED WESTERLY WINDS WITH POTENTIAL FOR SMALL CRAFT WESTERLIES
THROUGH THE STRAIT OF JUAN DE FUCA ON FRIDAY AND NEXT SATURDAY.
SEAS AROUND 5 TO 7 FEET THIS WEEKEND WILL BUILD TO 9 TO 12 FEET ON
TUESDAY, EASING BACK DOWN TO 5 TO 7 FEET BY WEDNESDAY. SEAS ARE
EXPECTED TO BUILD TO AROUND 9 TO 12 FEET ONCE AGAIN TOWARDS NEXT
WEEKEND.
15
HYDROLOGY
NO RIVER FLOODING IS EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT 7 DAYS.
SEW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
WA...NONE.
PZ...NONE.
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