133
FXUS66 KSEW 251701
AFDSEW
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SEATTLE WA
901 AM PST WED FEB 25 2026
SYNOPSIS
THE NEXT DISTURBANCE WILL CROSS THE AREA ON WEDNESDAY, BRINGING
ADDITIONAL SNOW TO THE MOUNTAINS AND RAIN TO THE LOWLANDS. AFTER
SHOWERS LINGER LATER IN THE WEEK, PRIMARILY IN THE NORTHERN
INTERIOR, A TREND TOWARDS DRIER CONDITIONS EMERGE OVER THE
WEEKEND AND CONTINUE INTO THE FIRST HALF OF NEXT WEEK.
SHORT TERM /TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY/
A STAGNANT PATTERN REMAINS IN THE UPPER-LEVELS OF THE
ATMOSPHERE. UPSTREAM, A REX BLOCK IS THE CULPRIT AS A HIGH
CENTER STRETCHES INTO THE BERING SEA IN CONCERT WITH A CUTOFF
LOW ON THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF THE AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE.
CLOSER TO HOME, NORTHWEST FLOW REGIME ALOFT WITH HIGH PRESSURE
AT THE SURFACE. TODAY WILL START OFF DRY WITH PATCHY LOW CLOUDS
AND FOG IN THE EARLY MORNING. THEN, THE NEXT FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL
ARRIVE FROM OF THE NW, BRINGING A GLANCING BLOW OF LOWLAND RAIN
SHOWERS (PRIMARILY ALONG THE COAST AND OLYMPICS) AND MOUNTAIN
SNOW MOSTLY FOR THE NORTH CASCADES - STEVENS PASS NORTHWARD.
INTENSE SNOWFALL RATES ARE NOT EXPECTED BUT INSTEAD RATHER
STEADY WITH SNOW TOTALS RANGING CLOSE TO A FOOT FOR AREAS SUCH
AS MT. BAKER SKI AREA THROUGH FRIDAY. SNOW LEVELS MAINLY 2,000
TO 3,000 THROUGHOUT THE SHORT-TERM FORECAST.
THE UPPER-LEVEL PATTERN WON'T VARY MUCH FOR THE NEXT FEW DAYS.
TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST TO REMAIN SEASONAL WITH HIGHS IN THE
UPPER 40S TO NEAR 50 F. OVERNIGHT LOWS ARE FORECAST TO FALL INTO
THE MID 30S TO LOWER 40S.
41
LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/
ENSEMBLES SUGGESTS THE UPPER-LEVEL PATTERN WILL PROGRESS IN THE
LONG-TERM FORECAST. THE AFOREMENTIONED CUT OFF LOW WILL BECOME
INGESTED IN THE MEAN-FLOW OVER THE WEEKEND AS IT TRACKS INLAND
OVER N. CALIFORNIA/S. OREGON. AN UPPER-RIDGE WILL GRADUALLY
POSITION OVER THE PNW BY EARLY NEXT WEEK. DAYTIME HIGHS ARE
SLATED TO REMAIN AROUND AVERAGE WITH COOL OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE
LOWER TO MID 30S.
AVIATION
WEST TO NORTHWEST FLOW OVER WESTERN WA TODAY UNDER
MODERATE ONSHORE FLOW. THE LOW LEVEL AIR MASS REMAINS MOIST WITH
BKN-OVC CLOUDS AROUND 3000-5000 FT, ALONG WITH POCKETS OF PATCHY
FOG AND LIFR CEILINGS. OVERALL CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO
IMPROVE TO MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS THIS AFTERNOON WITH SHOWERS
DEVELOPING PRIMARILY ALONG THE NORTH COAST, OLYMPICS AND
NORTHERN CASCADES. CEILINGS WILL LOWER TO AROUND 3000 FEET
OVERNIGHT WITH ANOTHER ROUND OF LOWER CEILINGS POSSIBLE AT A
FEW LOCATIONS EARLY THURSDAY MORNING. GUSTY SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL
DEVELOP FOR MANY AREAS THURSDAY MORNING. 33
KSEA...VFR EXPECTED WITH CEILINGS BETWEEN 3000-5000 FT LATER IN
THE AFTERNOON, LOWERING INTO THURSDAY MORNING BUT MOST LIKELY
REMAINING LOW END VFR.SE WINDS AROUND 5 KT BECOMING S/SW 10 KT.
GUSTY SOUTHERLY WINDS LATER THURSDAY MORNING WITH GUSTS 25-30KT
POSSIBLE.
MARINE
MODERATE ONSHORE FLOW PREVAILS THROUGH THURSDAY WITH
WINDS GRADUALLY EASING ON FRIDAY. SEAS WILL ALSO BUILD OVER 10
FT ON FRIDAY, PRIMARILY OVER THE OUTER COASTAL WATERS. THE FLOW
WILL TURN OFFSHORE OVER THE WEEKEND AND CONTINUE INTO EARLY
NEXT WEEK. 33
HYDROLOGY
NO RIVER FLOODING IS EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT SEVEN DAYS.
SEW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
WA...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 4 AM PST FRIDAY FOR CASCADES OF
SNOHOMISH AND NORTHERN KING COUNTIES-CASCADES OF WHATCOM
AND SKAGIT COUNTIES.
PZ...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 AM PST THURSDAY FOR CENTRAL U.S.
WATERS STRAIT OF JUAN DE FUCA-EAST ENTRANCE U.S. WATERS
STRAIT OF JUAN DE FUCA-WEST ENTRANCE U.S. WATERS STRAIT
OF JUAN DE FUCA.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 AM PST THURSDAY FOR COASTAL
WATERS FROM CAPE FLATTERY TO JAMES ISLAND 10 TO 60 NM-
COASTAL WATERS FROM CAPE FLATTERY TO JAMES ISLAND OUT 10
NM-COASTAL WATERS FROM JAMES ISLAND TO POINT GRENVILLE 10
TO 60 NM-COASTAL WATERS FROM JAMES ISLAND TO POINT
GRENVILLE OUT 10 NM.
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