814
FXUS66 KSEW 090427
AFDSEW
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SEATTLE WA
827 PM PST SAT NOV 8 2025
SYNOPSIS
DRIER AND WARMER CONDITIONS WILL SETTLE INTO
WESTERN WASHINGTON OVER THE WEEKEND AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS
OVERHEAD. A WEAK SYSTEM WILL BRING LIGHT RAIN TO THE REGION
EARLY NEXT WEEK. A STRONGER AND WETTER SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO
MOVE INTO THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST TOWARD THE END OF NEXT WEEK.
SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/
HIGH CLOUDS
CONTINUE TO SPREAD OVERHEAD THIS EVENING WITH AN UPPER RIDGE
OVER THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST. BREEZY, OFFSHORE WINDS WILL CONTINUE
INTO TONIGHT FOR THE CASCADE GAPS WITH GUSTS RANGING 25 TO 40
MPH AND LOCALIZED GUSTS AROUND 45 MPH NEAR NORTH BEND. WINDS
WILL SLOWLY SUBSIDE AFTER MIDNIGHT. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION BELOW:
AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS IN CONTROL INTO
SUNDAY LEADING TO ANOTHER DRY DAY. OFFSHORE FLOW AND SUBSIDENCE
WILL BOOST HIGH TEMPERATURES INTO THE UPPER 50S AND LOW 60S FOR
MANY INTERIOR LOCATIONS. THE PATTERN BEGINS TO SHIFT EARLY IN
THE WEEK AS THE RIDGE BREAKS DOWN. ON MONDAY, A WEAK FRONTAL
SYSTEM WILL MOVE ONSHORE FOR A RETURN TO CLOUDIER SKIES WITH
SOME LIGHT PRECIP. SNOW LEVELS WILL REMAIN HIGH. POST-FRONTAL
SHOWERS MAY LINGER INTO TUESDAY, ESPECIALLY OVER THE MOUNTAINS.
TEMPERATURES WILL COOL SLIGHTLY.
LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/
BY MIDWEEK, MODEL
GUIDANCE SHOWS SOME UNCERTAINTY ON TIMING, BUT IMPACTS ARE
EXPECTED TO BE MINIMAL AS THE REGION AWAITS A MORE SIGNIFICANT
PATTERN CHANGE. CONFIDENCE IN THE FORECAST DETAILS FOR THE LATE
WEEK PERIOD IS LOW, BUT ENSEMBLE MODEL GUIDANCE STRONGLY FAVORS
A TRANSITION TO A WETTER AND MORE ACTIVE PATTERN.
AVIATION
AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL MOVE INLAND TONIGHT INTO
SUNDAY RESULTING IN CONTINUED SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT OVER W WA. AT
THE SURFACE, AS OF 03Z MOST TERMINALS REPORTING LIGHT AND VARIABLE
WINDS WITH SPEEDS LESS THAN 5 KTS. THOSE SHOWING A DIRECTION SEEM TO
BE FAVORING WINDS WITH AT LEAST SOME EASTERLY COMPONENT. HQM FITS
THE BILL ON DIRECTION, HOWEVER SPEEDS THERE GENERALLY RANGING 9-13
KTS. FORECAST HAS WINDS SHIFTING TO MORE SOUTHERLY BY EARLY SUNDAY
MORNING, BUT KEEPING SPEEDS AKIN TO THIS EVENING. IN THE CASE OF
HQM, SPEEDS WILL REMAIN ELEVATED OVERNIGHT, EASING SUNDAY MORNING.
WIDESPREAD VFR THIS EVENING WITH MID TO HIGH-LEVEL CLOUDS OVER
PORTIONS OF THE CWA. WHILE ISOLATED PATCHY FOG WILL BE POSSIBLE,
ESPECIALLY AT TERMINALS THAT TEND TO LEAN IN THAT DIRECTION TO BEGIN
WITH...SUCH AS OLM AND PWT...SAID MID TO HIGH-LEVEL CLOUDS SHOULD
PROVE TO BE A LIMITING FACTOR. WIDESPREAD VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED
SUNDAY AS WELL.
KSEA...VFR WITH MID TO HIGH-LEVEL CLOUDS OVERHEAD FOR THE TAF
PERIOD. EASTERLY WINDS THIS EVENING BECOMING MORE SOUTHERLY BY 12Z
WITH SPEEDS REMAINING LESS THAN 5 KTS. CURRENT BKN MID-DECK
STRENGTHENS CONFIDENCE THAT FOG CONCERNS FOR THE TERMINAL REMAIN
MINIMAL AT THIS TIME, HOWEVER THIS QUESTION COULD BE REVISITED IF
CONDITIONS CLEAR OVERNIGHT.
MARINE
HIGH PRESSURE INLAND WITH LOWER PRESSURE OVER THE COASTAL
WATERS WILL CAUSE OFFSHORE FLOW TO CONTINUE THROUGH THIS EVENING.
SEEING SOME SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY EASTERLY WIND GUSTS THROUGH THE
CENTRAL AND WEST ENTRANCE OF THE STRAIT OF JUAN DE FUCA THIS
EVENING, WITH SPEEDS EXPECTED TO RAMP UP AFTER MIDNIGHT THROUGH
SUNDAY MORNING. AS SUCH, WILL LEAVE INHERITED HEADLINE ALONE WITH NO
NEED FOR AN EVENING UPDATE.
SEAS WILL BUILD TO 10 FEET ACROSS THE OUTER WATERS ON SUNDAY AS THE
NEXT SYSTEM APPROACHES, RESULTING IN ANOTHER SCA. A FRONTAL SYSTEM
WILL SPLIT AS IT REACHES AREA WATERS LATE SUNDAY INTO MONDAY, WITH
ONSHORE FLOW BRIEFLY RESUMING BEHIND THE FRONT. SEAS WILL EASE BELOW
10 FEET MONDAY AFTERNOON, THOUGH POST FRONTAL WINDS THROUGH THE
STRAIT OF JUAN DE FUCA MAY APPROACH SMALL CRAFT STRENGTH MONDAY
EVENING.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER THE COASTAL WATERS LATE MONDAY INTO
THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK, WITH BENIGN CONDITIONS AND SEAS EASING TO 4
TO 8 FEET. THE NEXT SYSTEM WILL APPROACH THE REGION LATER ON
WEDNESDAY, EXPECTED TO BRING ANOTHER ROUND OF WINDS AND ELEVATED
SEAS TO THE REGION.
15/18
HYDROLOGY
THE SKOKOMISH RIVER DROPPED BELOW FLOOD STAGE
EARLIER THIS MORNING AND WILL CONTINUE TO RECEDE THROUGH THE
WEEKEND. THE NEXT WEATHER SYSTEM LATE SUNDAY WILL BRING LIGHT
RAIN TO THE OLYMPIC PENINSULA, BUT IS NOT EXPECTED TO PRODUCE
HYDROLOGICALLY SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL. CHANCES FOR HEAVIER RAIN
INCREASE TOWARDS THE END OF NEXT WEEK, THOUGH NO NEW FLOODING IS
EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT 7 DAYS.
JD/15
SEW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
WA...NONE.
PZ...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM PST SUNDAY FOR WEST ENTRANCE
U.S. WATERS STRAIT OF JUAN DE FUCA.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 1 AM PST SUNDAY FOR CENTRAL U.S.
WATERS STRAIT OF JUAN DE FUCA.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 1 PM SUNDAY TO 4 AM PST MONDAY FOR
COASTAL WATERS FROM CAPE FLATTERY TO JAMES ISLAND 10 TO
60 NM-COASTAL WATERS FROM JAMES ISLAND TO POINT GRENVILLE
10 TO 60 NM-COASTAL WATERS FROM POINT GRENVILLE TO CAPE
SHOALWATER 10 TO 60 NM.
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