076  
FGUS73 KGRB 132123  
ESFGRB  
WIC009-015-029-037-041-061-067-069-071-073-075-078-083-085-087-097-  
115-125-135-137-139-141-162130-  
 
PROBABILISTIC HYDROLOGIC OUTLOOK  
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREEN BAY WI  
323 PM CST THU FEB 13 2020  
 
IN TABLE 1 BELOW, THE CURRENT (CS) AND HISTORICAL (HS) OR NORMAL  
PROBABILITIES OF EXCEEDING MINOR...MODERATE...AND MAJOR FLOOD STAGE  
ARE LISTED FOR THE VALID TIME PERIOD.  
 
CS VALUES INDICATE THE PROBABILITY OF REACHING A FLOOD CATEGORY  
BASED ON CURRENT CONDITIONS.  
 
HS VALUES INDICATE THE PROBABILITY OF REACHING A FLOOD CATEGORY  
BASED ON HISTORICAL OR NORMAL CONDITIONS.  
 
WHEN THE VALUE OF CS IS GREATER THAN HS...THE PROBABILITY OF  
EXCEEDING THAT LEVEL IS HIGHER THAN NORMAL. WHEN THE VALUE OF CS IS  
LESS THAN HS...THE PROBABILITY OF EXCEEDING THAT LEVEL IS LOWER  
THAN NORMAL.  
   
..TABLE 1--PROBABILITIES FOR MINOR...MODERATE AND MAJOR FLOODING
 
 
VALID PERIOD:  
VALID PERIOD: 02/17/2020 - 05/17/2020  
: CURRENT AND HISTORICAL  
: CHANCES OF EXCEEDING  
: FLOOD CATEGORIES  
: AS A PERCENTAGE (%)  
CATEGORICAL :  
FLOOD STAGES (FT) : MINOR MODERATE MAJOR  
LOCATION MINOR MOD MAJOR : CS HS CS HS CS HS  
-------- ----- ----- ----- : --- --- --- --- --- ---  
:WISCONSIN RIVER  
MERRILL 11.0 13.5 15.0 : 72 18 39 5 16 <5  
ROTHSCHILD 25.0 27.0 28.0 : 65 16 44 7 27 <5  
WISCONSIN RAPIDS 12.0 13.5 14.5 : 55 8 25 <5 12 <5  
:YELLOW RIVER  
BABCOCK 12.0 15.9 16.6 : 92 72 34 10 25 8  
:OCONTO RIVER  
OCONTO 9.0 12.0 14.0 : >95 24 27 <5 9 <5  
:UPPER WOLF RIVER  
LANGLADE 11.5 12.5 14.0 : 15 <5 <5 <5 <5 <5  
:WOLF RIVER  
SHIOCTON 11.0 13.5 15.0 : >95 45 77 6 19 <5  
NEW LONDON 9.0 10.5 11.1 : >95 47 63 8 32 <5  
:LITTLE WOLF RIVER  
ROYALTON 5.0 8.0 10.0 : 81 34 18 <5 <5 <5  
:WAUPACA RIVER  
WAUPACA 6.0 7.5 9.0 : 24 <5 <5 <5 <5 <5  
:FOX RIVER  
APPLETON 8.4 9.0 10.5 : <5 <5 <5 <5 <5 <5  
:MENOMINEE RIVER  
FLORENCE 9.0 11.0 13.0 : 82 35 36 10 12 <5  
NIAGRA 13.0 15.0 16.0 : 78 28 44 6 30 <5  
VULCAN 15.0 17.0 19.0 : 71 25 39 <5 18 <5  
MCALLISTER 15.0 18.0 19.0 : >95 51 59 8 43 <5  
 
LEGEND  
CS = CONDITIONAL SIMULATION (CURRENT OUTLOOK)  
HS = HISTORICAL SIMULATION  
FT = FEET  
 
IN TABLE 2 BELOW...THE 95 THROUGH 5 PERCENT COLUMNS INDICATE THE  
PROBABILITY OF EXCEEDING THE LISTED STAGE LEVELS (FT) FOR THE VALID  
TIME PERIOD.  
   
..TABLE 2--EXCEEDANCE PROBABILITIES
 
 
CHANCE OF EXCEEDING STAGES  
AT SPECIFIC LOCATIONS  
VALID PERIOD:  
LOCATION 95% 90% 75% 50% 25% 10% 5%  
-------- ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------  
:WISCONSIN RIVER  
MERRILL 9.8 10.1 10.8 12.4 14.1 16.0 16.8  
ROTHSCHILD 23.0 23.4 24.3 26.5 28.1 30.5 32.9  
WISCONSIN RAPIDS 9.0 9.6 10.3 12.3 13.5 14.8 16.7  
:YELLOW RIVER  
BABCOCK 11.7 12.6 13.9 15.1 16.6 17.5 18.6  
:OCONTO RIVER  
OCONTO 9.0 9.5 10.1 11.1 12.0 13.8 16.1  
:UPPER WOLF RIVER  
LANGLADE 10.1 10.2 10.4 10.7 11.1 11.9 12.1  
:WOLF RIVER  
SHIOCTON 12.7 13.1 13.6 14.1 14.9 15.8 16.7  
NEW LONDON 9.5 9.8 10.3 10.7 11.3 12.0 12.5  
:LITTLE WOLF RIVER  
ROYALTON 4.3 4.5 5.4 6.1 7.3 8.9 9.9  
:WAUPACA RIVER  
WAUPACA 4.0 4.6 4.9 5.3 6.0 6.6 6.9  
:FOX RIVER  
APPLETON 7.4 7.8 7.9 7.9 7.9 7.9 7.9  
:MENOMINEE RIVER  
FLORENCE 8.2 8.3 9.2 10.3 11.7 13.5 14.4  
NIAGRA 11.8 12.5 13.4 14.5 16.4 18.2 19.1  
VULCAN 12.9 13.4 14.6 15.9 18.4 20.5 21.6  
MCALLISTER 15.3 15.9 17.1 18.2 20.2 22.4 22.8  
 
IN TABLE 3 BELOW...THE 95 THROUGH 5 PERCENT COLUMNS INDICATE THE  
PROBABILITY OF FALLING BELOW THE LISTED STAGE LEVELS (FT) FOR  
THE VALID TIME PERIOD.  
   
..TABLE 3--NONEXCEEDANCE PROBABILITIES
 
 
CHANCE OF FALLING BELOW STAGES  
AT SPECIFIC LOCATIONS  
VALID PERIOD:  
LOCATION 95% 90% 75% 50% 25% 10% 5%  
-------- ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------  
:WISCONSIN RIVER  
MERRILL 5.3 5.3 5.3 5.3 5.3 4.8 4.8  
ROTHSCHILD 13.9 13.9 13.9 13.9 13.9 13.4 13.4  
WISCONSIN RAPIDS 3.0 3.0 3.0 3.0 3.0 2.7 2.1  
:YELLOW RIVER  
BABCOCK 1.9 1.9 1.9 1.9 1.9 1.9 1.9  
:OCONTO RIVER  
OCONTO 4.6 4.6 4.6 4.5 4.5 4.5 4.5  
:UPPER WOLF RIVER  
LANGLADE 7.9 7.9 7.8 7.8 7.8 7.8 7.8  
:WOLF RIVER  
SHIOCTON 5.8 5.5 5.2 4.9 4.7 4.5 4.5  
NEW LONDON 4.3 4.2 4.0 3.6 3.4 3.3 3.2  
:LITTLE WOLF RIVER  
ROYALTON 1.3 1.3 1.3 1.2 1.2 1.2 1.2  
:WAUPACA RIVER  
WAUPACA 1.6 1.6 1.6 1.6 1.6 1.5 1.5  
:FOX RIVER  
APPLETON 5.9 5.9 5.8 5.7 5.6 5.5 5.2  
:MENOMINEE RIVER  
FLORENCE 3.3 3.3 3.3 2.7 2.7 2.7 2.7  
NIAGRA 5.5 5.5 5.5 5.3 5.3 5.2 5.2  
VULCAN 5.4 5.4 5.4 5.3 5.3 5.3 5.2  
MCALLISTER 9.2 9.2 9.2 9.2 9.1 9.0 9.0  
 
THESE LONG-RANGE PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOKS CONTAIN FORECAST VALUES THAT  
ARE CALCULATED USING MULTIPLE SEASON SCENARIOS FROM 30 OR MORE YEARS  
OF CLIMATOLOGICAL DATA...INCLUDING CURRENT CONDITIONS OF THE  
RIVER...SOIL MOISTURE...SNOW COVER AND 30 TO 90 DAY LONG-RANGE  
OUTLOOKS OF TEMPERATURE AND PRECIPITATION. BY PROVIDING A RANGE  
OF PROBABILITIES...THE LEVEL OF RISK ASSOCIATED WITH LONG-RANGE  
PLANNING DECISIONS CAN BE DETERMINED. THESE PROBABILISTIC  
FORECASTS ARE PART OF THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE'S ADVANCED  
HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE.  
 
VISIT OUR WEB SITE WEATHER.GOV/GRB FOR MORE WEATHER AND WATER  
INFORMATION.  
 
THE NEXT OUTLOOK WILL BE ISSUED BY THE END OF MARCH.  
 

 
 
UHLMANN  
 
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