285  
FGUS73 KMKX 132027  
ESFMKX  
 
WI07047-039-117-111-021-027-131-089-049-025-055-133-079-065-045-105-  
127-101-059-161800-  
 
PROBABILISTIC HYDROLOGIC OUTLOOK  
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MILWAUKEE/SULLIVAN WI  
214 PM CST THU FEB 13 2020  
   
..ABOVE AVERAGE RISK OF FLOODING THIS SPRING
 
 
THIS OUTLOOK REFERENCES INFORMATION FROM THE FOLLOWING PARTNERS  
INCLUDING THE UNITED STATES GEOLOGICAL SURVEY (USGS), THE US ARMY  
CORPS OF ENGINEERS, REGIONAL CLIMATE CENTERS, US DROUGHT MONITOR,  
THE CLIMATE PREDICTION CENTER, AND NOAA OFFICE OF WATER PREDICTION.  
 
2019 WAS THE WETTEST YEAR ON RECORD FOR WISCONSIN. SOILS ARE VERY  
SATURATED WHICH WILL CAUSE INCREASED RUNOFF AND FLOODING POTENTIAL.  
STREAM FLOWS ARE MUCH ABOVE AVERAGE AND RUNOFF INTO RIVERS THAT ARE  
ALREADY HIGH INCREASES FLOOD POTENTIAL. MINOR FLOODING IS EXPECTED  
BUT MORE IMPACTFUL FLOODING IS POSSIBLE, ESPECIALLY WITH A RAPID  
SNOW MELT OR HEAVY RAIN. FLOODING COULD BE WIDESPREAD. RIVER  
FLOODING IN SOUTHERN WISCONSIN TYPICALLY OCCURS IN MARCH AND APRIL,  
WITH A RAPID SNOW MELT AND/OR HEAVY RAIN.  
 
THERE IS AN ABOVE NORMAL RISK OF FLOODING ALONG THE MOUTHS OF RIVERS  
INTO LAKE MICHIGAN. LAKE MICHIGAN WATER LEVEL CONTINUES TO BE NEAR  
RECORD LEVEL. THIS MAY SLOW DOWN RIVERS AS WATER PILES UP AT THE  
MOUTH. BACKWATER AND INUNDATION FLOODING NEAR RIVER MOUTHS IS ALSO  
POSSIBLE, ESPECIALLY WHEN THE WIND BLOWS INTO RIVERS OVER A PERIOD  
OF TIME.  
 
ICE JAM FLOODING RISK IS LOW TO MODERATE. MILD TEMPERATURES WINTER  
HAVE LIMITED THE DEVELOPMENT OF RIVER ICE. SOME ICE DEVELOPMENT IS  
STILL POSSIBLE WITH ANY COLDER TEMPERATURES THIS WINTER. BUT,  
WITHOUT THE DEVELOPMENT OF THICK RIVER ICE THE THREAT FOR SPRING  
BREAK UP JAMS IS LOW TO MODERATE.  
   
..FLOOD OUTLOOK FACTORS
 
 
PRECIPITATION LAST FALL WAS 150 TO 200 PERCENT OF NORMAL ACROSS  
SOUTHERN WISCONSIN, AND THIS WINTER SO FAR IT IS 75 TO 150 PERCENT  
OF NORMAL. THIS PAST FALL WAS MUCH WETTER THAN LAST YEAR AND WINTER  
HAS BEEN SIMILAR TO LAST YEAR. SOIL MOISTURE VALUES ARE IN THE 99TH  
PERCENTILE AND STREAM FLOW VALUES ARE IN THE 76 TO 90TH PERCENTILE.  
THIS INDICATES VALUES ARE WELL ABOVE AVERAGE. STREAMFLOW VALUES ARE  
SLIGHTLY HIGHER THAN LAST YEAR. CURRENTLY THERE IS ONE HALF INCH TO  
3 INCHES OF WATER CONTAINED IN THE SNOW PACK ACROSS SOUTHERN  
WISCONSIN. THIS IS CLOSE TO AVERAGE FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR. SNOW  
WATER EQUIVALENT VALUES FOR THE UPPER WISCONSIN RIVER BASIN ARE 4 TO  
8 INCHES, WHICH IS IN THE 90TH PERCENTILE. THIS SNOWPACK WILL  
EVENTUALLY MAKE ITS WAY DOWN THE WISCONSIN RIVER INTO SOUTHERN  
WISCONSIN. SNOW WATER EQUIVALENT VALUES ARE SLIGHTLY HIGHER THAN  
THIS TIME LAST YEAR. THESE FACTORS CREATE AN ELEVATED FLOOD RISK FOR  
SOUTHERN WISCONSIN.  
 
FROST DEPTH IS GENERALLY 3 TO 12 INCHES. THIS IS BELOW TO NEAR  
NORMAL. THE MILD WINTER COMBINED WITH THE RECENT SNOW PACK HAS  
LIMITED FROST DEPTH. A SHALLOWER FROST WILL THAW SOONER WHICH WOULD  
NORMALLY LIMIT RUNOFF, BUT DUE TO THE SATURATED SOILS IT WILL NOT BE  
MUCH OF A BENEFIT THIS YEAR.  
   
..WEATHER/CLIMATE OUTLOOK
 
 
MILDER TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED LATER IN FEBRUARY. THIS MAY MELT  
SOME SNOW AND CAUSE SOME RIVER RISES. BUT, MUCH OF THE SNOW PACK WILL  
LIKELY REMAIN. A DRIER THAN NORMAL PERIOD IS FAVORED FOR THE LATER  
PART OF FEBRUARY. THERE IS AN INCREASED CHANCE FOR BELOW NORMAL  
TEMPERATURES FOR THE FEB-MARCH-APRIL TIME PERIOD WITH SLIGHTLY  
INCREASED ODDS FOR ABOVE AVERAGE PRECIPITATION. THIS SUGGESTS  
ADDITIONAL SNOW IS POSSIBLE. WHILE THERE IS A GREAT DEAL OF  
UNCERTAINTY IN LONG RANGE OUTLOOKS, IT REINFORCES THE LIKELIHOOD OF  
A RAPID SNOW MELT SCENARIO ONCE THE WARMER TEMPERATURES ARRIVE LATER  
THIS SPRING.  
   
..PROBABILISTIC RIVER FLOOD INFORMATION
 
 
IN TABLE 1 BELOW...THE CURRENT (CS) AND HISTORICAL (HS) OR NORMAL  
PROBABILITIES OF EXCEEDING MINOR...MODERATE...AND MAJOR FLOOD STAGES  
ARE LISTED FOR THE VALID TIME PERIOD.  
 
CS VALUES INDICATE THE PROBABILITY OF REACHING A FLOOD CATEGORY  
BASED ON CURRENT CONDITIONS.  
 
HS VALUES INDICATE THE PROBABILITY OF REACHING A FLOOD CATEGORY  
BASED ON HISTORICAL OR NORMAL CONDITIONS.  
 
WHEN THE VALUE OF CS IS MORE THAN HS...THE PROBABILITY OF  
EXCEEDING THAT LEVEL IS HIGHER THAN NORMAL. WHEN THE VALUE OF CS IS  
LESS THAN HS...THE PROBABILITY OF EXCEEDING THAT LEVEL IS LOWER  
THAN NORMAL.  
 
   
..TABLE 1--PROBABILITIES FOR MINOR...MODERATE AND MAJOR FLOODING
 
 
VALID PERIOD: 02/17/2020 - 05/17/2020  
 
: CURRENT AND HISTORICAL  
: CHANCES OF EXCEEDING  
: FLOOD CATEGORIES  
: AS A PERCENTAGE (%)  
CATEGORICAL :  
FLOOD STAGES (FT) : MINOR MODERATE MAJOR  
LOCATION MINOR MOD MAJOR : CS HS CS HS CS HS  
-------- ----- ----- ----- : --- --- --- --- --- ---  
:ROCK RIVER  
WATERTOWN 5.5 6.0 6.5 : 24 15 10 9 <5 <5  
:CRAWFISH RIVER  
MILFORD 7.0 9.0 10.0 : 34 34 10 8 <5 <5  
:ROCK RIVER  
JEFFERSON 10.0 11.0 13.0 : 38 33 25 20 <5 <5  
FORT ATKINSON 16.0 17.0 18.0 : 18 14 6 6 <5 <5  
LAKE KOSHKONONG 10.0 11.0 11.5 : 55 39 30 30 23 24  
AFTON 9.0 11.1 12.2 : 60 37 18 12 7 8  
:TURTLE CREEK  
CLINTON 8.0 10.0 12.0 : 18 14 7 6 <5 <5  
BELOIT 7.5 10.5 12.5 : 18 14 <5 <5 <5 <5  
:PECATONICA RIVER  
DARLINGTON 13.5 15.0 16.0 : 24 25 15 19 13 15  
:EAST BRANCH PECATONICA RIVER  
BLANCHARDVILLE 11.0 14.0 16.0 : 55 35 9 <5 <5 <5  
:PECATONICA RIVER  
MARTINTOWN 13.5 18.0 21.0 : 79 42 10 6 <5 <5  
:SUGAR RIVER  
ALBANY 12.0 13.0 14.0 : <5 <5 <5 <5 <5 <5  
BRODHEAD 5.0 8.0 10.0 : 68 38 12 7 <5 <5  
:WISCONSIN RIVER  
WISCONSIN DELLS 16.0 17.6 18.9 : 77 20 59 6 43 <5  
PORTAGE 17.0 18.0 19.0 : >95 59 >95 39 76 16  
:BARABOO RIVER  
ROCK SPRINGS 18.5 21.0 23.0 : 77 46 51 33 32 20  
WEST BARABOO 9.0 10.5 12.5 : 35 21 19 12 <5 <5  
BARABOO 16.0 22.0 23.1 : 78 49 13 9 8 5  
:FOX RIVER  
PRINCETON 9.5 11.0 12.0 : 45 13 7 <5 <5 <5  
BERLIN 13.0 14.5 16.0 : 57 19 9 <5 <5 <5  
:SHEBOYGAN RIVER  
SHEBOYGAN 8.0 10.0 12.0 : 23 17 6 6 <5 5  
:ROOT RIVER  
FRANKLIN 8.0 10.0 12.0 : 18 23 <5 <5 <5 <5  
:ROOT RIVER CANAL  
RAYMOND 9.0 11.0 12.0 : 19 21 <5 <5 <5 <5  
:ROOT RIVER  
RACINE 7.0 7.5 8.0 : <5 5 <5 <5 <5 <5  
:CEDAR CREEK  
CEDARBURG 10.0 11.0 12.0 : <5 7 <5 <5 <5 <5  
:MILWAUKEE RIVER  
CEDARBURG 11.0 13.0 14.0 : 36 36 <5 8 <5 <5  
:FOX RIVER LOWER  
WAUKESHA 6.0 8.0 10.0 : 27 33 <5 <5 <5 <5  
BURLINGTON 11.0 12.0 14.0 : 25 30 6 16 <5 <5  
NEW MUNSTER 11.0 13.0 14.0 : 73 65 21 28 5 16  
 
LEGEND  
CS = CONDITIONAL SIMULATION (CURRENT OUTLOOK)  
HS = HISTORICAL SIMULATION  
FT = FEET  
 
IN TABLE 2 BELOW...THE 95 THROUGH 5 PERCENT COLUMNS INDICATE THE  
PROBABILITY OF EXCEEDING THE LISTED STAGE LEVELS (FT) FOR THE VALID  
TIME PERIOD.  
   
..TABLE 2--EXCEEDANCE PROBABILITIES
 
 
CHANCE OF EXCEEDING STAGES  
AT SPECIFIC LOCATIONS  
VALID PERIOD: 02/17/2020 - 05/17/2020  
LOCATION 95% 90% 75% 50% 25% 10% 5%  
-------- ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------  
:ROCK RIVER  
WATERTOWN 3.7 3.8 4.2 4.8 5.5 6.0 6.5  
:CRAWFISH RIVER  
MILFORD 4.3 4.4 5.3 6.5 7.2 9.0 9.6  
:ROCK RIVER  
JEFFERSON 6.9 7.2 7.9 9.4 11.1 12.2 12.7  
FORT ATKINSON 13.0 13.3 13.7 14.7 15.6 16.5 17.2  
LAKE KOSHKONONG 8.1 8.5 8.9 10.2 11.4 12.3 13.2  
AFTON 7.1 7.6 8.1 9.4 10.7 11.7 12.9  
:TURTLE CREEK  
CLINTON 5.2 5.4 5.9 6.7 7.3 9.0 10.5  
BELOIT 5.1 5.2 5.6 6.3 7.0 8.4 9.8  
:PECATONICA RIVER  
DARLINGTON 8.9 9.4 10.3 11.6 13.1 17.0 17.4  
:EAST BRANCH PECATONICA RIVER  
BLANCHARDVILLE 9.0 9.4 10.1 11.2 12.5 13.7 14.8  
:PECATONICA RIVER  
MARTINTOWN 11.9 12.8 13.9 15.1 16.2 18.0 18.7  
:SUGAR RIVER  
ALBANY 7.1 7.2 7.9 9.5 10.3 11.1 11.5  
BRODHEAD 3.9 4.1 4.7 5.8 6.9 8.2 8.7  
:WISCONSIN RIVER  
WISCONSIN DELLS 14.9 15.2 16.3 18.3 20.3 23.2 25.7  
PORTAGE 18.3 18.4 19.0 20.8 21.8 22.4 22.7  
:BARABOO RIVER  
ROCK SPRINGS 15.6 16.8 18.8 21.2 23.5 24.8 25.3  
WEST BARABOO 5.5 5.8 6.6 7.4 9.8 11.6 12.2  
BARABOO 14.2 15.1 16.6 18.0 20.5 22.6 23.4  
:FOX RIVER  
PRINCETON 8.2 8.6 8.8 9.4 10.2 10.8 11.4  
BERLIN 12.1 12.5 12.7 13.2 13.9 14.5 14.8  
:SHEBOYGAN RIVER  
SHEBOYGAN 4.9 5.1 5.7 6.9 7.8 8.8 11.5  
:ROOT RIVER  
FRANKLIN 5.7 5.9 6.4 7.0 7.5 8.3 8.4  
:ROOT RIVER CANAL  
RAYMOND 5.2 5.7 6.6 7.4 8.5 9.6 10.5  
:ROOT RIVER  
RACINE 4.2 4.3 4.6 4.9 5.5 6.2 6.3  
:CEDAR CREEK  
CEDARBURG 7.1 7.3 7.7 8.4 9.0 9.6 9.9  
:MILWAUKEE RIVER  
CEDARBURG 8.7 8.9 9.5 10.3 11.6 12.7 12.9  
:FOX RIVER LOWER  
WAUKESHA 4.6 5.0 5.3 5.7 6.0 6.3 7.2  
BURLINGTON 8.5 8.8 9.3 10.3 11.0 11.7 12.1  
NEW MUNSTER 9.5 10.0 10.8 12.1 12.7 13.6 14.0  
 
IN TABLE 3 BELOW...THE 95 THROUGH 5 PERCENT COLUMNS INDICATE THE  
PROBABILITY OF FALLING BELOW THE LISTED STAGE LEVELS (FT) FOR THE  
VALID TIME PERIOD.  
   
..TABLE 3--NONEXCEEDANCE PROBABILITIES
 
 
CHANCE OF FALLING BELOW STAGES  
AT SPECIFIC LOCATIONS  
VALID PERIOD: 02/17/2020 - 05/17/2020  
LOCATION 95% 90% 75% 50% 25% 10% 5%  
-------- ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------  
:ROCK RIVER  
WATERTOWN 2.3 2.3 2.3 2.2 2.1 1.9 1.8  
:CRAWFISH RIVER  
MILFORD 3.1 3.1 2.9 2.6 2.4 2.2 2.2  
:ROCK RIVER  
JEFFERSON 5.0 5.0 4.9 4.6 4.2 3.8 3.8  
FORT ATKINSON 12.0 11.9 11.9 11.7 11.3 11.1 11.1  
LAKE KOSHKONONG 6.7 6.7 6.6 6.2 5.9 5.8 5.8  
AFTON 5.8 5.8 5.8 5.7 4.6 4.0 3.0  
:TURTLE CREEK  
CLINTON 3.8 3.8 3.8 3.7 3.6 3.5 3.5  
BELOIT 3.9 3.9 3.9 3.8 3.7 3.6 3.6  
:PECATONICA RIVER  
DARLINGTON 3.2 3.2 3.2 3.2 3.2 3.1 3.0  
:EAST BRANCH PECATONICA RIVER  
BLANCHARDVILLE 5.2 5.2 5.2 5.2 5.1 5.0 4.9  
:PECATONICA RIVER  
MARTINTOWN 6.6 6.6 6.6 6.6 6.4 6.2 6.1  
:SUGAR RIVER  
ALBANY 4.3 4.3 4.3 4.2 4.1 4.0 4.0  
BRODHEAD 1.7 1.6 1.6 1.4 1.3 1.2 1.2  
:WISCONSIN RIVER  
WISCONSIN DELLS 3.7 3.6 3.6 3.3 2.7 2.2 1.5  
PORTAGE 10.1 10.1 10.0 9.9 9.6 9.2 8.7  
:BARABOO RIVER  
ROCK SPRINGS 9.7 9.7 9.7 9.7 9.6 9.5 9.4  
WEST BARABOO 2.8 2.8 2.8 2.8 2.8 2.8 2.8  
BARABOO 8.0 8.0 8.0 7.9 7.8 7.7 7.7  
:FOX RIVER  
PRINCETON 5.9 5.9 5.8 5.7 5.6 5.4 5.3  
BERLIN 10.4 10.4 10.3 10.2 10.1 9.9 9.9  
:SHEBOYGAN RIVER  
SHEBOYGAN 2.4 2.4 2.4 2.3 2.3 2.2 2.2  
:ROOT RIVER  
FRANKLIN 2.3 2.3 2.2 2.1 2.0 2.0 2.0  
:ROOT RIVER CANAL  
RAYMOND 2.6 2.6 2.5 2.3 2.2 2.1 2.1  
:ROOT RIVER  
RACINE 2.8 2.7 2.7 2.6 2.5 2.4 2.4  
:CEDAR CREEK  
CEDARBURG 5.5 5.5 5.5 5.4 5.3 5.3 5.2  
:MILWAUKEE RIVER  
CEDARBURG 6.0 6.0 5.9 5.9 5.8 5.7 5.7  
:FOX RIVER LOWER  
WAUKESHA 3.0 3.0 3.0 2.9 2.9 2.8 2.8  
BURLINGTON 7.2 7.2 7.0 6.7 6.5 6.3 6.2  
NEW MUNSTER 7.1 7.1 6.8 6.3 5.9 5.6 5.5  
 
THESE LONG-RANGE PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOKS CONTAIN FORECAST VALUES THAT  
ARE CALCULATED USING MULTIPLE SEASON SCENARIOS FROM 30 OR MORE YEARS  
OF CLIMATOLOGICAL DATA...INCLUDING CURRENT CONDITIONS OF THE  
RIVER...SOIL MOISTURE...SNOW COVER...AND 30 TO 90 DAY LONG-RANGE  
OUTLOOKS OF TEMPERATURE AND PRECIPITATION. BY PROVIDING A RANGE OF  
PROBABILITIES...THE LEVEL OF RISK ASSOCIATED WITH LONG-RANGE PLANNING  
DECISIONS CAN BE DETERMINED. THESE PROBABILISTIC FORECASTS ARE PART  
OF THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE'S ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION  
SERVICE.  
 
VISIT OUR WEB SITE WEATHER.GOV/MKX FOR MORE WEATHER AND WATER  
INFORMATION.  
 
THE NEXT OUTLOOK WILL BE ISSUED FEBRUARY 27, 2020.  
 

 
 
MARQUARDT  
 
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