048
FGUS73 KMKX 142101
ESFMKX
WIC077-047-039-117-111-021-027-131-089-049-025-055-133-079-065-045-
105-127-101-059-142200-
PROBABILISTIC HYDROLOGIC OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MILWAUKEE/SULLIVAN WI
400 PM CDT THU MAR 14 2024
..SPRING FLOOD OUTLOOK
THE RISK OF SPRING FLOODING IS BELOW AVERAGE ACROSS SOUTHERN
WISCONSIN. FLOODING IS STILL POSSIBLE, BUT THE UNDERLYING RISK IS
NOT ELEVATED AT THIS TIME. THE ABSENSE OF A SNOWPACK, NO FROST IN
THE GROUND, AND AVERAGE TO BELOW AVERAGE SOIL MOISTURE ARE THE MAIN
FACTORS IN THE BELOW AVERSGE RISK.
..FLOOD OUTLOOK FACTORS
PRECIPITATION WAS 75 TO 150% OF NORMAL FOR THE DECEMBER, JANURARY,
FEBRUARY SEASON AND THE PAST 30 DAYS WERE 50 TO 175% OF NORMAL.
HOWEVER, FEBRUARY PRECIPITATION WAS DRY, WITH 25 TO 75% OF NORMAL
PRECIPITATION, WHICH CONTRIBUTED TO A LOWER FLOOD RISK. STREAMFLOW
AVERAGED OVER THE PAST 28 DAYS IS IN THE NORMAL RANGE, THE 25 TO
75TH PERCENTILE, SO THERE IS ROOM IN THE RIVERS TO HOLD ADDITIONAL
RAINFALL. CURRENTLY THERE IS NO SNOW ON THE GROUND, WHICH RESULTS IN
LOWER RUNOFF.
SOIL MOISTURE IS IN THE 10 TO 30TH PERCENTILE IN SOUTHWEST AND PARTS
OF SOUTH-CENTRAL WISCONSIN AND IN THE 30-70TH PERCENTILE ACROSS
PARTS OF SOUTH-CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST WISCONSIN. PRECIPITATION
DEFICITS ARE 6 TO 12 INCHES SINCE JUNE 2023 ACROSS SAUK, WESTERN
COLUMBIA, MARQUETTE, AND GREEN LAKE COUNTIES AND ARE NOTED AS
MODERATE TO SEVERE DROUGHT ON THE U.S. DROUGHT MONITOR.
RIVERS AND LAKES ARE MAINLY ICE FREE.
THE OUTLOOK FOR LATE MARCH FROM THE CLIMATE PREDICTION CENTER
INDICATES INCREASED CHANCES FOR NEAR TO BELOW AVERAGE TEMPERATURE
AND ABOVE AVERAGE PRECIPITATION. THE OUTLOOK FOR MARCH, APRIL, MAY
INDICATES INCREASED CHANCES FOR ABOVE AVERAGE TEMPERATURE AND EQUAL
CHANCES OF ABOVE, NEAR, AND BELOW AVERGE PRECIPITATION.
..PROBABILISTIC FORECAST INFORMATINO FOR RIVER FORECAST POINTS
IN TABLE 1 BELOW...THE CURRENT (CS) AND HISTORICAL (HS) OR
NORMAL PROBABILITIES OF EXCEEDING MINOR...MODERATE...AND MAJOR FLOOD
STAGES ARE LISTED FOR THE VALID TIME PERIOD.
CS VALUES INDICATE THE PROBABILITY OF REACHING A FLOOD CATEGORY
BASED ON CURRENT CONDITIONS.
HS VALUES INDICATE THE PROBABILITY OF REACHING A FLOOD CATEGORY
BASED ON HISTORICAL OR NORMAL CONDITIONS.
WHEN THE VALUE OF CS IS MORE THAN HS...THE PROBABILITY OF
EXCEEDING THAT LEVEL IS HIGHER THAN NORMAL. WHEN THE VALUE OF CS IS
LESS THAN HS...THE PROBABILITY OF EXCEEDING THAT LEVEL IS LOWER
THAN NORMAL.
..TABLE 1--PROBABILITIES FOR MINOR...MODERATE AND MAJOR FLOODING
VALID PERIOD: 03/18/2024 - 06/16/2024
: CURRENT AND HISTORICAL
: CHANCES OF EXCEEDING
: FLOOD CATEGORIES
: AS A PERCENTAGE (%)
CATEGORICAL :
FLOOD STAGES (FT) : MINOR MODERATE MAJOR
LOCATION MINOR MOD MAJOR : CS HS CS HS CS HS
-------- ----- ----- ----- : --- --- --- --- --- ---
:ROCK RIVER
WATERTOWN 5.5 6.0 6.5 : 5 16 <5 11 <5 7
:CRAWFISH RIVER
MILFORD 7.0 9.0 10.0 : 17 38 5 11 <5 7
:ROCK RIVER
JEFFERSON 10.0 11.0 13.0 : 19 39 13 28 <5 7
FORT ATKINSON 16.0 17.0 18.0 : 12 20 <5 9 <5 5
LAKE KOSHKONONG 10.0 11.0 11.5 : 30 45 16 33 13 26
AFTON 9.0 11.1 12.2 : 30 44 13 18 <5 10
:TURTLE CREEK
CLINTON 8.0 10.0 12.0 : 12 13 <5 <5 <5 <5
BELOIT 7.5 10.5 12.5 : 9 11 <5 <5 <5 <5
:PECATONICA RIVER
DARLINGTON 13.5 15.0 16.0 : <5 <5 <5 <5 <5 <5
:EAST BRANCH PECATONICA RIVER
BLANCHARDVILLE 11.0 14.0 16.0 : 8 12 <5 <5 <5 <5
:PECATONICA RIVER
MARTINTOWN 13.5 18.0 21.0 : 9 23 <5 <5 <5 <5
:SUGAR RIVER
ALBANY 12.0 13.0 14.0 : <5 <5 <5 <5 <5 <5
BRODHEAD 5.0 8.0 10.0 : 19 31 <5 7 <5 <5
:WISCONSIN RIVER
WISCONSIN DELLS 16.0 17.6 18.9 : <5 25 <5 13 <5 6
PORTAGE 17.0 18.0 19.0 : 14 65 6 51 <5 24
:BARABOO RIVER
REEDSBURG 14.0 16.0 18.0 : 34 49 20 30 9 14
ROCK SPRINGS 18.5 21.0 23.0 : 19 35 11 26 6 8
WEST BARABOO 9.0 10.5 12.5 : 7 14 <5 <5 <5 <5
BARABOO 16.0 22.0 23.1 : 19 39 <5 <5 <5 <5
:BLACK EARTH CREEK
BLACK EARTH 5.5 7.0 8.0 : 6 <5 <5 <5 <5 <5
:FOX RIVER
PRINCETON 9.5 11.0 12.0 : 7 20 <5 <5 <5 <5
BERLIN 13.0 14.5 16.0 : 10 26 <5 6 <5 <5
:SHEBOYGAN RIVER
SHEBOYGAN 8.0 10.0 12.0 : 15 30 8 10 6 8
:ROOT RIVER
FRANKLIN 8.0 10.0 12.0 : 19 24 <5 <5 <5 <5
:ROOT RIVER CANAL
RAYMOND 9.0 11.0 12.0 : 22 24 5 7 <5 <5
:ROOT RIVER
RACINE 7.0 7.5 8.0 : 6 9 <5 5 <5 <5
:CEDAR CREEK
CEDARBURG 10.0 11.0 12.0 : <5 6 <5 <5 <5 <5
:MILWAUKEE RIVER
CEDARBURG 11.0 13.0 14.0 : 15 38 6 10 <5 6
:FOX RIVER LOWER
WAUKESHA 6.0 8.0 10.0 : 11 15 6 9 <5 <5
BURLINGTON 11.0 12.0 14.0 : 11 25 8 12 <5 <5
NEW MUNSTER 11.0 13.0 14.0 : 54 54 11 23 10 15
LEGEND
CS = CONDITIONAL SIMULATION (CURRENT OUTLOOK)
HS = HISTORICAL SIMULATION
FT = FEET
IN TABLE 2 BELOW...THE 95 THROUGH 5 PERCENT COLUMNS INDICATE THE
PROBABILITY OF EXCEEDING THE LISTED STAGE LEVELS (FT) FOR THE VALID
TIME PERIOD.
..TABLE 2--EXCEEDANCE PROBABILITIES
CHANCE OF EXCEEDING STAGES
AT SPECIFIC LOCATIONS
VALID PERIOD: 03/18/2024 - 06/16/2024
LOCATION 95% 90% 75% 50% 25% 10% 5%
-------- ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------
:ROCK RIVER
WATERTOWN 3.3 3.3 3.4 3.6 4.5 5.2 5.6
:CRAWFISH RIVER
MILFORD 3.7 3.7 3.9 4.5 6.3 7.9 9.2
:ROCK RIVER
JEFFERSON 6.6 6.6 6.7 7.2 9.2 11.3 12.4
FORT ATKINSON 13.0 13.0 13.2 13.5 14.6 16.3 17.0
LAKE KOSHKONONG 8.0 8.0 8.2 8.7 10.2 12.0 12.8
AFTON 6.8 6.9 7.2 7.8 9.2 11.3 12.1
:TURTLE CREEK
CLINTON 4.4 4.6 5.1 5.5 6.3 8.1 9.1
BELOIT 4.3 4.3 4.8 5.2 5.9 7.3 8.5
:PECATONICA RIVER
DARLINGTON 3.7 4.1 4.6 5.5 7.0 9.4 10.6
:EAST BRANCH PECATONICA RIVER
BLANCHARDVILLE 5.4 5.8 6.6 7.7 9.4 10.4 11.8
:PECATONICA RIVER
MARTINTOWN 7.7 7.7 8.1 9.2 10.9 13.2 14.2
:SUGAR RIVER
ALBANY 5.0 5.2 6.0 6.6 7.8 10.0 11.0
BRODHEAD 2.1 2.2 2.7 3.5 4.7 6.2 8.0
:WISCONSIN RIVER
WISCONSIN DELLS 4.6 5.3 6.6 9.1 11.0 12.6 14.1
PORTAGE 11.1 11.6 12.4 13.9 16.3 17.4 18.2
:BARABOO RIVER
REEDSBURG 7.9 8.2 10.9 12.3 15.2 17.2 19.3
ROCK SPRINGS 10.6 10.8 13.1 14.5 17.5 21.5 23.2
WEST BARABOO 3.1 3.2 4.2 5.0 6.0 7.7 9.9
BARABOO 9.2 9.5 11.7 13.6 15.5 18.1 20.8
:BLACK EARTH CREEK
BLACK EARTH 2.5 2.7 2.9 3.2 3.7 4.1 6.7
:FOX RIVER
PRINCETON 5.5 5.9 6.4 7.2 7.9 9.1 10.0
BERLIN 10.1 10.3 10.8 11.5 12.0 13.1 14.0
:SHEBOYGAN RIVER
SHEBOYGAN 3.3 3.6 4.5 5.7 7.0 8.5 12.2
:ROOT RIVER
FRANKLIN 4.2 4.9 6.2 6.8 7.7 8.4 8.8
:ROOT RIVER CANAL
RAYMOND 4.0 4.8 6.1 7.3 8.9 10.4 11.1
:ROOT RIVER
RACINE 3.7 3.8 4.3 4.9 5.5 6.5 7.1
:CEDAR CREEK
CEDARBURG 6.5 6.6 7.0 7.6 8.4 9.0 9.9
:MILWAUKEE RIVER
CEDARBURG 7.3 7.5 8.3 9.2 10.4 11.9 13.4
:FOX RIVER LOWER
WAUKESHA 4.0 4.1 4.4 4.8 5.3 6.6 8.7
BURLINGTON 8.4 8.4 8.7 9.7 10.3 11.7 12.6
NEW MUNSTER 9.3 9.3 9.9 11.2 12.0 13.9 15.1
IN TABLE 3 BELOW...THE 95 THROUGH 5 PERCENT COLUMNS INDICATE THE
PROBABILITY OF FALLING BELOW THE LISTED STAGE LEVELS (FT) FOR THE
VALID TIME PERIOD.
..TABLE 3--NONEXCEEDANCE PROBABILITIES
CHANCE OF FALLING BELOW STAGES
AT SPECIFIC LOCATIONS
VALID PERIOD: 03/18/2024 - 06/16/2024
LOCATION 95% 90% 75% 50% 25% 10% 5%
-------- ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------
:ROCK RIVER
WATERTOWN 2.4 2.2 2.1 1.9 1.5 1.4 1.4
:CRAWFISH RIVER
MILFORD 2.6 2.4 2.3 2.1 2.0 1.9 1.9
:ROCK RIVER
JEFFERSON 4.1 3.8 3.4 3.2 2.8 2.7 2.7
FORT ATKINSON 11.7 11.6 11.3 11.2 10.9 10.8 10.8
LAKE KOSHKONONG 6.8 6.4 6.2 6.2 5.8 5.8 5.8
AFTON 5.8 5.7 4.4 3.9 3.3 2.7 2.6
:TURTLE CREEK
CLINTON 3.8 3.8 3.7 3.7 3.6 3.6 3.5
BELOIT 3.8 3.7 3.6 3.6 3.5 3.4 3.4
:PECATONICA RIVER
DARLINGTON 3.4 3.2 3.0 2.8 2.6 2.5 2.5
:EAST BRANCH PECATONICA RIVER
BLANCHARDVILLE 5.0 4.8 4.5 4.3 4.2 4.1 4.0
:PECATONICA RIVER
MARTINTOWN 6.8 6.3 6.0 5.7 5.5 5.3 5.2
:SUGAR RIVER
ALBANY 4.2 4.0 3.9 3.8 3.7 3.7 3.7
BRODHEAD 1.4 1.2 1.1 1.0 0.9 0.9 0.8
:WISCONSIN RIVER
WISCONSIN DELLS 2.6 1.6 1.4 1.2 1.0 0.9 0.9
PORTAGE 9.7 8.8 8.7 8.5 8.3 8.2 8.1
:BARABOO RIVER
REEDSBURG 5.0 4.6 4.1 3.7 3.3 3.1 3.0
ROCK SPRINGS 8.6 8.3 8.0 7.8 7.6 7.5 7.5
WEST BARABOO 2.7 2.6 2.5 2.5 2.5 2.5 2.5
BARABOO 7.4 7.0 6.6 6.4 6.2 6.0 6.0
:BLACK EARTH CREEK
BLACK EARTH 2.2 2.2 2.1 2.1 2.0 2.0 1.9
:FOX RIVER
PRINCETON 5.1 5.0 4.6 4.2 3.8 3.5 3.3
BERLIN 9.8 9.7 9.4 9.2 8.7 8.4 8.2
:SHEBOYGAN RIVER
SHEBOYGAN 2.2 2.2 2.1 2.0 2.0 1.9 1.9
:ROOT RIVER
FRANKLIN 2.2 2.2 2.1 2.0 2.0 2.0 1.9
:ROOT RIVER CANAL
RAYMOND 2.4 2.3 2.2 2.2 2.1 2.1 2.1
:ROOT RIVER
RACINE 2.6 2.6 2.5 2.4 2.3 2.2 2.2
:CEDAR CREEK
CEDARBURG 5.5 5.4 5.4 5.3 5.2 5.2 5.2
:MILWAUKEE RIVER
CEDARBURG 5.9 5.8 5.7 5.6 5.5 5.5 5.5
:FOX RIVER LOWER
WAUKESHA 3.0 2.9 2.9 2.8 2.8 2.7 2.7
BURLINGTON 7.1 6.9 6.7 6.5 6.4 6.2 6.2
NEW MUNSTER 6.9 6.5 6.2 5.9 5.7 5.5 5.5
THESE LONG-RANGE PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOKS CONTAIN FORECAST VALUES THAT
ARE CALCULATED USING MULTIPLE SEASON SCENARIOS FROM 30 OR MORE YEARS
OF CLIMATOLOGICAL DATA...INCLUDING CURRENT CONDITIONS OF THE
RIVER...SOIL MOISTURE...SNOW COVER...AND 30 TO 90 DAY LONG-RANGE
OUTLOOKS OF TEMPERATURE AND PRECIPITATION. BY PROVIDING A RANGE OF
PROBABILITIES...THE LEVEL OF RISK ASSOCIATED WITH LONG-RANGE PLANNING
DECISIONS CAN BE DETERMINED. THESE PROBABILISTIC FORECASTS ARE PART
OF THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE'S ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION
SERVICE.
VISIT OUR WEB SITE WEATHER.GOV/MKX FOR MORE WEATHER AND WATER
INFORMATION.
THE NEXT OUTLOOK WILL BE ISSUED MID APRIL.
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.
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