941
FGUS73 KMPX 141514
ESFMSP
MNC003-009-013-015-019-023-037-049-053-073-079-103-123-127-129-139-
141-143-145-153-163-171-173-WIC011-035-091-093-109-312359-
PROBABILISTIC HYDROLOGIC OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
1010 AM CDT THU MAR 14 2024
...SPRING FLOOD AND WATER RESOURCES OUTLOOK FOR THE UPPER
MISSISSIPPI, MINNESOTA, AND CHIPPEWA (WI) RIVER BASINS...
...THERE IS A BELOW NORMAL PROBABILITY OF SPRING FLOODING THROUGHOUT
THE AREA...
IN TABLE 1 BELOW, THE CURRENT (CS) AND HISTORICAL/NORMAL (HS)
PROBABILITIES OF EXCEEDING MINOR, MODERATE, AND MAJOR FLOOD STAGES
ARE LISTED FOR THE VALID TIME PERIOD. WHEN THE VALUE OF CS IS
GREATER THAN THAT OF HS, THE PROBABILITY OF EXCEEDING THAT LEVEL IS
HIGHER THAN NORMAL. WHEN THE VALUE OF CS IS LESS THAN THAT OF HS,
THE PROBABILITY OF EXCEEDING THAT LEVEL IS LOWER THAN NORMAL.
..TABLE 1--PROBABILITIES FOR MINOR...MODERATE AND MAJOR FLOODING
VALID PERIOD: 03/18/2024 - 06/16/2024
: CURRENT AND HISTORICAL
: CHANCES OF EXCEEDING
: FLOOD CATERGORIES
: AS A PERCENTAGE (%)
CATEGORICAL :
FLOOD STAGES (FT) : MINOR MODERATE MAJOR
LOCATION MINOR MOD MAJOR : CS HS CS HS CS HS
-------- ----- ----- ----- : --- --- --- --- --- ---
:WEST BRANCH LAC QUI PARLE RIVER
DAWSON 39.0 40.0 42.0 : <5 7 <5 <5 <5 <5
:REDWOOD RIVER
REDWOOD FALLS 6.0 15.0 16.0 : 10 21 <5 <5 <5 <5
:COTTONWOOD RIVER
SPRINGFIELD 22.0 27.0 32.0 : 17 38 7 18 <5 <5
NEW ULM 11.0 13.0 16.0 : 8 28 6 18 <5 9
:MINNESOTA RIVER
MONTEVIDEO 14.0 16.0 17.5 : 12 30 <5 20 <5 8
GRANITE FALLS 885.0 889.0 892.0 : <5 22 <5 7 <5 <5
MORTON 21.0 23.0 26.0 : 13 35 7 22 <5 7
NEW ULM 800.0 804.0 806.0 : 5 18 <5 8 <5 6
MANKATO 22.0 25.0 30.0 : <5 13 <5 7 <5 <5
HENDERSON 732.0 736.0 739.5 : <5 19 <5 8 <5 <5
JORDAN 25.0 28.0 34.0 : 9 30 <5 16 <5 <5
SAVAGE 702.0 710.0 712.0 : 22 62 <5 13 <5 10
:LONG PRAIRIE RIVER
LONG PRAIRIE 7.0 8.0 10.0 : <5 17 <5 7 <5 <5
:SAUK RIVER
ST CLOUD 6.0 7.0 9.0 : <5 9 <5 5 <5 <5
:SOUTH FORK CROW RIVER
MAYER 11.0 15.0 16.0 : 14 28 <5 11 <5 8
DELANO 16.5 17.5 18.5 : 7 20 <5 16 <5 11
:CROW RIVER
ROCKFORD 10.0 12.0 14.0 : 8 22 <5 12 <5 8
:MISSISSIPPI RIVER
ST CLOUD 9.0 10.0 11.0 : 7 32 <5 15 <5 <5
HWY 169 CHAMPLIN 12.0 14.0 17.0 : 5 21 <5 8 <5 <5
:RUM RIVER
MILACA 6.0 7.0 8.0 : 6 8 <5 <5 <5 <5
ST FRANCIS 8.0 10.0 11.0 : 11 20 <5 <5 <5 <5
:SNAKE RIVER
MORA 11.0 13.0 14.0 : 13 28 <5 9 <5 <5
:MISSISSIPPI RIVER
FRIDLEY 16.0 16.5 17.0 : <5 8 <5 7 <5 6
ST PAUL 14.0 15.0 17.0 : <5 25 <5 19 <5 12
HASTINGS L/D#2 15.0 17.0 18.0 : 8 40 <5 19 <5 13
RED WING L/D#3 680.5 681.5 683.0 : <5 25 <5 17 <5 8
RED WING 14.0 15.0 16.0 : <5 20 <5 14 <5 10
:CANNON RIVER
NORTHFIELD 897.0 899.0 900.0 : <5 17 <5 5 <5 <5
:ST CROIX RIVER
STILLWATER 87.0 88.0 89.0 : <5 25 <5 19 <5 12
:EAU CLAIRE RIVER
FALL CREEK 11.0 14.0 17.0 : 8 21 <5 <5 <5 <5
:CHIPPEWA RIVER
EAU CLAIRE 773.0 776.0 778.0 : <5 14 <5 7 <5 <5
DURAND 13.0 15.5 17.0 : 10 42 <5 12 <5 <5
LEGEND
CS = CONDITIONAL SIMULATION (CURRENT OUTLOOK)
HS = HISTORICAL SIMULATION (NORMAL)
FT = FEET
IN TABLE 2 BELOW, THE 95 THROUGH 5 PERCENT COLUMNS INDICATE THE
PROBABILITY OF EXCEEDING THE LISTED STAGE LEVELS (FT) FOR THE
VALID TIME PERIOD.
..TABLE 2--EXCEEDANCE PROBABILITIES
CHANCE OF EXCEEDING STAGES
AT SPECIFIC LOCATIONS
VALID PERIOD: 03/18/2024 - 06/16/2024
LOCATION 95% 90% 75% 50% 25% 10% 5%
-------- ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------
:WEST BRANCH LAC QUI PARLE RIVER
DAWSON 32.3 32.4 33.1 33.7 34.5 35.9 38.0
:REDWOOD RIVER
REDWOOD FALLS 1.8 1.8 2.5 3.3 4.2 6.4 7.7
:COTTONWOOD RIVER
SPRINGFIELD 13.6 14.2 15.8 17.6 20.7 24.1 28.6
NEW ULM 4.9 5.2 6.0 7.4 9.0 10.5 14.1
:MINNESOTA RIVER
MONTEVIDEO 4.7 5.2 7.0 9.8 11.9 14.3 15.3
GRANITE FALLS 880.6 880.7 881.5 882.5 883.1 884.1 884.7
MORTON 10.2 11.6 13.1 16.4 19.1 21.7 23.6
NEW ULM 786.9 787.6 788.9 791.7 793.7 797.1 800.1
MANKATO 5.5 6.2 7.6 10.2 12.9 16.9 18.9
HENDERSON 716.9 718.2 720.5 723.8 726.3 729.5 731.1
JORDAN 8.0 9.3 11.8 15.6 20.0 24.3 25.9
SAVAGE 687.7 688.4 690.6 697.8 701.1 705.0 707.5
:LONG PRAIRIE RIVER
LONG PRAIRIE 1.9 2.2 2.8 4.5 5.8 6.5 6.8
:SAUK RIVER
ST CLOUD 1.9 1.9 1.9 2.8 3.7 4.8 5.2
:SOUTH FORK CROW RIVER
MAYER 2.6 3.6 5.2 7.2 9.5 12.1 12.9
DELANO 6.9 7.8 9.7 11.9 14.0 16.2 16.9
:CROW RIVER
ROCKFORD 3.3 3.3 4.5 6.0 7.6 9.4 11.0
:MISSISSIPPI RIVER
ST CLOUD 4.7 5.0 5.7 6.5 7.3 8.5 9.4
HWY 169 CHAMPLIN 4.5 4.7 5.2 6.2 7.3 9.7 12.2
:RUM RIVER
MILACA 2.0 2.3 2.8 3.6 4.5 5.4 6.3
ST FRANCIS 2.9 3.2 4.6 5.5 6.5 8.1 8.8
:SNAKE RIVER
MORA 2.8 3.5 4.7 6.5 9.1 11.2 12.1
:MISSISSIPPI RIVER
FRIDLEY 5.0 5.3 6.1 8.0 9.5 12.2 14.2
ST PAUL 3.0 3.0 3.7 6.4 8.8 11.4 13.5
HASTINGS L/D#2 5.3 5.5 6.5 9.4 11.4 14.6 16.1
RED WING L/D#3 669.0 669.4 671.2 674.4 676.3 679.1 680.0
RED WING 3.5 3.9 4.9 6.9 8.4 11.4 12.3
:CANNON RIVER
NORTHFIELD 891.1 891.5 892.3 893.3 894.2 895.9 897.0
:ST CROIX RIVER
STILLWATER 75.5 75.7 77.1 79.8 82.0 85.5 86.9
:EAU CLAIRE RIVER
FALL CREEK 3.6 4.5 5.4 6.8 8.2 10.4 13.8
:CHIPPEWA RIVER
EAU CLAIRE 761.1 761.9 762.9 764.9 766.8 768.9 770.0
DURAND 5.0 6.0 7.2 9.2 11.0 13.0 14.0
IN TABLE 3 BELOW, THE 95 THROUGH 5 PERCENT COLUMNS
INDICATE THE PROBABILITY OF FALLING BELOW THE LISTED STAGE LEVELS (FT)
FOR THE VALID TIME PERIOD.
..TABLE 3--NONEXCEEDANCE PROBABILITIES
CHANCE OF FALLING BELOW STAGES
AT SPECIFIC LOCATIONS
VALID PERIOD: 03/18/2024 - 06/16/2024
LOCATION 95% 90% 75% 50% 25% 10% 5%
-------- ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------
:WEST BRANCH LAC QUI PARLE RIVER
DAWSON 32.3 32.3 32.2 32.1 31.9 31.2 31.2
:REDWOOD RIVER
REDWOOD FALLS 1.8 1.8 1.7 1.6 1.5 1.4 1.4
:COTTONWOOD RIVER
SPRINGFIELD 12.6 12.6 12.4 12.3 12.1 11.9 11.9
NEW ULM 3.6 3.5 3.5 3.3 3.1 3.0 3.0
:MINNESOTA RIVER
MONTEVIDEO 4.2 4.1 3.8 3.4 3.0 2.6 2.5
GRANITE FALLS 880.4 880.4 880.2 880.1 879.9 879.7 879.6
MORTON 9.5 9.3 9.0 8.7 8.2 7.7 7.5
NEW ULM 786.6 786.5 786.2 785.9 785.5 785.1 784.9
MANKATO 3.9 3.9 3.6 3.4 3.2 2.9 2.8
HENDERSON 713.9 713.9 713.5 713.0 712.6 712.0 711.6
JORDAN 5.5 5.5 5.2 4.8 4.5 4.1 3.9
SAVAGE 687.5 687.5 687.4 687.4 687.4 687.4 687.4
:LONG PRAIRIE RIVER
LONG PRAIRIE 1.8 1.8 1.7 1.5 1.4 1.2 1.0
:SAUK RIVER
ST CLOUD 1.9 1.8 1.8 1.6 1.4 1.2 1.1
:SOUTH FORK CROW RIVER
MAYER 2.6 2.5 2.3 2.1 1.6 1.2 0.8
DELANO 6.9 6.8 6.6 6.2 5.7 5.2 4.9
:CROW RIVER
ROCKFORD 3.3 3.2 3.1 2.9 2.6 2.2 2.0
:MISSISSIPPI RIVER
ST CLOUD 4.7 4.7 4.7 4.5 4.2 4.0 3.8
HWY 169 CHAMPLIN 4.5 4.5 4.5 4.4 4.3 4.2 4.2
:RUM RIVER
MILACA 1.8 1.8 1.8 1.8 1.8 1.7 1.6
ST FRANCIS 2.8 2.8 2.8 2.7 2.6 2.5 2.4
:SNAKE RIVER
MORA 1.3 1.3 1.2 1.2 1.1 1.0 0.9
:MISSISSIPPI RIVER
FRIDLEY 4.8 4.8 4.8 4.6 4.2 4.0 3.3
ST PAUL 3.0 3.0 3.0 3.0 3.0 3.0 3.0
HASTINGS L/D#2 4.9 4.9 4.9 4.8 4.6 4.5 4.4
RED WING L/D#3 668.1 668.1 668.1 668.0 667.8 667.6 667.5
RED WING 2.6 2.6 2.6 2.4 2.2 1.7 1.6
:CANNON RIVER
NORTHFIELD 890.2 890.2 890.1 890.0 889.9 889.6 889.5
:ST CROIX RIVER
STILLWATER 75.3 75.3 75.3 75.2 75.2 75.1 75.1
:EAU CLAIRE RIVER
FALL CREEK 1.6 1.5 1.3 1.1 0.9 0.8 0.7
:CHIPPEWA RIVER
EAU CLAIRE 759.4 759.3 759.0 758.8 758.7 758.6 758.6
DURAND 3.1 2.9 2.4 2.1 1.9 1.7 1.6
FOR THE WINTER OF 2023-24, WE HAVE SEEN A RECORD LOW AMOUNT OF
SNOWFALL ACROSS THE ENTIRE UPPER MIDWEST. THIS HAS RESULTED IN A
BELOW NORMAL PROBABILITY OF SPRING FLOODING, DUE TO LITTLE IF ANY
SNOW WATER EQUIVALENT TO DRIVE THE SNOWMELT FLOOD SEASON. SOIL
MOISTURE HAS BEEN DECREASING OVER THE PAST FEW WEEKS, AN UNUSUAL
OCCURRENCE IN MARCH, WHILE DROUGHT CONDITIONS ARE BEGINNING TO TAKE
OVER. THUS, THERE IS AMPLE STORAGE FOR ANY POTENTIAL RAINFALL
AVAILABLE IN THE SOIL, AS WELL AS IN LAKES, PONDS, AND WETLANDS AS
WE MOVE THROUGH SPRING.
AT THIS POINT, WORSENING DROUGHT IS PROBABLY A BIGGER CONCERN FOR
THE AREA THAN POTENTIAL FLOODING. LONG RANGE WEATHER PATTERNS ARE
NOT SHOWING A STRONG INDICATION OF EITHER ABOVE OR BELOW NORMAL
PRECIPITATION.
THESE LONG-RANGE PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOKS CONTAIN FORECAST VALUES THAT
ARE CALCULATED USING MULTIPLE SEASON SCENARIOS FROM 30 OR MORE YEARS
OF CLIMATOLOGICAL DATA, ALONG WITH CURRENT CONDITIONS OF THE RIVER
LEVELS, SOIL MOISTURE, AND SNOW COVER, COMBINED WITH 30 TO 90 DAY
LONG RANGE OUTLOOKS.
THIS INFORMATION IS AVAILABLE ONLINE IN GRAPHICAL FORMAT, AT:
HTTPS://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/TWINCITIES AND AT
HTTPS://WATER.WEATHER.GOV/AHPS2/INDEX.PHP?WHO=MPX
BEGINNING ON MARCH 27TH, NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WATER RECOURCES
INFORMATION WILL HAVE A NEW HOME, THE NATIONAL WATER PREDICTION
SERVICE (NWPS). STARTING THAT DAY, CHECK US OUT AT
HTTPS://WATER.NOAA.GOV !
THIS IS THE FINAL SPRING FLOOD OUTLOOK FROM NWS TWIN CITIES THIS
SEASON.
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.
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