598  
FNUS73 KDLH 181318  
FWSDLH  
 
SPOT FORECAST FOR BIGELOW PILE BURN...USDA FOREST SERVICE  
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DULUTH MN  
718 AM CST WED JAN 18 2023  
 
FORECAST IS BASED ON IGNITION TIME OF 1000 CST ON JANUARY 18.  
IF THERE ARE QUESTIONS OR CONCERNS WITH THIS FORECAST, OR IF  
CONDITIONS BECOME UNREPRESENTATIVE, CONTACT THE NATIONAL  
WEATHER SERVICE.  
   
DISCUSSION
 
 
CLOUDY SKIES WILL OCCUR TODAY WITH AN INVERSION IN PLACE KEEPING  
MIXING POOR TO FAIR. AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL CAUSE SNOW TO  
DEVELOP TONIGHT WITH IT CONTINUING INTO AT LEAST THURSDAY EVENING.  
WINDS WILL INCREASE QUITE A BIT OUT OF THE EAST TO NORTHEAST  
TONIGHT AND REMAIN STRONGER INTO THURSDAY. WE'RE EXPECTING  
SNOWFALL FROM 3 TO 5 INCHES TONIGHT INTO THURSDAY.  
   
REST OF TODAY
 
 
SKY/WEATHER.........CLOUDY (90-100 PERCENT). SLIGHT CHANCE OF SNOW  
LATE IN THE AFTERNOON.  
CHANCE OF PCPN......20 PERCENT.  
MAX TEMPERATURE.....AROUND 27.  
MIN HUMIDITY........85 PERCENT.  
WIND (20 FT)........NORTHEAST WINDS 5 TO 10 MPH.  
MIXING HEIGHT.......1900 FT AGL.  
TRANSPORT WINDS.....EAST 10 TO 15 MPH.  
SMOKE DISPERSAL.....POOR TO FAIR (10600-22400 KNOT-FT).  
PCPN AMOUNT.........0.00 INCHES.  
 
TIME (CST) 10A 11A 12P 1PM 2PM 3PM 4PM 5PM  
SKY COVER.......CDY CDY CDY CDY CDY CDY CDY CDY  
WEATHER COV..... SCH  
WEATHER TYPE.... SN  
TSTM COV........  
CHC OF PCPN (%).0 10 10 10 10 10 10 20  
TEMP............25 25 26 26 26 25 26 26  
RH..............88 88 88 88 85 92 88 85  
20 FT WIND DIR..NE E E E E E E NE  
20 FT WIND SPD..5 5 5 5 5 5 10 10  
20 FT WIND GUST.9 11 12 13 13 14 14 16  
MIX HGT (KFT)...1.5 1.7 1.8 1.9 1.9 1.6 1.4 1.3  
TRANSP WIND DIR.E E E E E E E E  
TRANSP WIND SPD.10 10 10 10 15 15 15 15  
SDSPL KT-FT/100011 14 17 19 22 19 16 16  
   
TONIGHT
 
 
SKY/WEATHER.........CLOUDY (90-100 PERCENT). CHANCE OF SNOW IN THE  
EVENING, THEN SNOW LIKELY OVERNIGHT.  
CHANCE OF PCPN......60 PERCENT.  
MIN TEMPERATURE.....AROUND 24.  
MAX HUMIDITY........96 PERCENT.  
WIND (20 FT)........EAST WINDS 10 TO 15 MPH WITH GUSTS TO AROUND 25  
MPH.  
MIXING HEIGHT.......1200 FT AGL.  
TRANSPORT WINDS.....EAST 15 TO 20 MPH.  
SMOKE DISPERSAL.....POOR TO FAIR (10200-21500 KNOT-FT).  
PCPN AMOUNT.........0.06 INCHES.  
 
TIME (CST) 6 PM 8 PM 10 PM MIDNGT 2 AM 4 AM  
SKY COVER.......CLOUDY CLOUDY CLOUDY CLOUDY CLOUDY CLOUDY  
WEATHER COV.....S CHC CHANCE CHANCE S CHC CHANCE CHANCE  
WEATHER TYPE....SNOW SNOW SNOW SNOW SNOW SNOW  
TSTM COV........  
CHC OF PCPN (%).20 30 30 20 30 50  
TEMP............26 27 27 27 27 27  
RH..............85 85 85 85 88 92  
20 FT WIND......NE 10 E 10 E 10 E 15 E 15 E 15  
20 FT WIND GUST.18 21 22 22 23 23  
MIX HGT (FT)....900 800 800 1000 1200 1200  
TRANSPORT WIND..E 15 E 15 E 15 E 15 E 20 NE 20  
SDSPL KT-FT/100012 11 12 15 19 21  
   
THURSDAY
 
 
SKY/WEATHER.........CLOUDY (90-100 PERCENT). SNOW IN THE MORNING,  
THEN SNOW LIKELY IN THE AFTERNOON.  
CHANCE OF PCPN......80 PERCENT.  
MAX TEMPERATURE.....AROUND 29.  
MIN HUMIDITY........85 PERCENT.  
WIND (20 FT)........NORTHEAST WINDS AROUND 15 MPH WITH GUSTS TO  
AROUND 27 MPH.  
MIXING HEIGHT.......2500 FT AGL.  
TRANSPORT WINDS.....NORTHEAST 20 TO 25 MPH BECOMING AROUND 20 MPH  
LATE IN THE AFTERNOON.  
SMOKE DISPERSAL.....FAIR TO GOOD (22300-39300 KNOT-FT) INCREASING  
TO GOOD TO GOOD (39100-56400 KNOT-FT) IN THE  
LATE MORNING AND AFTERNOON, THEN DECREASING TO  
GOOD (35500 KNOT-FT) LATE IN THE AFTERNOON.  
PCPN AMOUNT.........0.20 INCHES.  
 
TIME (CST) 6 AM 8 AM 10 AM NOON 2 PM 4 PM  
SKY COVER.......CLOUDY CLOUDY CLOUDY CLOUDY CLOUDY CLOUDY  
WEATHER COV.....LIKELY DEFNTE DEFNTE LIKELY LIKELY CHANCE  
WEATHER TYPE....SNOW SNOW SNOW SNOW SNOW SNOW  
TSTM COV........  
CHC OF PCPN (%).70 80 80 70 70 50  
TEMP............28 28 28 29 28 26  
RH..............92 96 96 88 85 89  
20 FT WIND......NE 15 NE 15 NE 15 NE 15 NE 15 NE 15  
20 FT WIND GUST.26 26 26 27 26 23  
MIX HGT (FT)....1200 1800 2100 2500 2200 2000  
TRANSPORT WIND..E 20 NE 25 NE 25 NE 25 NE 25 NE 25  
SDSPL KT-FT/100022 39 48 56 48 39  
 

 
FORECASTER...DEAN M  
REQUESTED BY...ANDREW MOFFITT  
TYPE OF REQUEST...PRESCRIBED  
.TAG 2300920.0/DLH  
.DELDT 01/18/23  
.FORMATTERVERSION 2.0.0  
.EMAIL ANDREW.MOFFITT@USDA.GOV  
 
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