063
FNUS73 KMKX 231137
FWSMKX
SPOT FORECAST FOR TROLLY LINE...WI DNR
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MILWAUKEE/SULLIVAN WI
637 AM CDT THU APR 23 2026
FORECAST IS BASED ON IGNITION TIME OF 0900 CDT ON APRIL 23.
PLEASE CONTACT THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IF CONDITIONS BECOME
UNREPRESENTATIVE OR IF YOU HAVE QUESTIONS/CONCERNS ABOUT THIS FORECAST.
DISCUSSION
DRY WEATHER AND MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES EXPECTED THIS MORNING AND
AFTERNOON; SOME SCATTERED / BROKEN MID AND HIGH ALTITUDE CLOUDS
WILL PASS BY TOWARDS MIDDAY, BUT WILL LEAVE PLENTY OF ROOM FOR
SUNSHINE TO GET THROUGH. CLOUD COVER BUILDS IN FROM THE WEST THIS
EVENING, WITH SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED OVERNIGHT
TONIGHT.
SOUTH TO SOUTH-SOUTHWEST WINDS EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY RAMP UP OVER
THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS, POTENTIALLY WITH SOME ~20-25 MPH GUSTS BY
EARLY THIS AFTERNOON. MY CONFIDENCE LEVEL IN THE HOURLY FORECAST
(PRINTED BELOW) FOR TEMPS / RH / WIND DIRECTION IS VERY HIGH
FROM NOW THROUGH ABOUT 1:00 PM CDT THIS AFTERNOON. AFTER THAT,
THINGS COULD GET A LITTLE INTERESTING...
A LAKE BREEZE FRONT WITH SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS / COOLER
TEMPERATURES / LOWER MIXING HEIGHTS / HIGHER RH IS EXPECTED TO
BEGIN PUSHING INLAND INTO SHEBOYGAN COUNTY EARLY THIS AFTERNOON,
AND EXACTLY HOW FAR WEST IT PROGRESSES AND HOW FAST IT MOVES IS
UNCERTAIN. IF IT FAILS TO REACH YOU BY MID/LATE AFTERNOON, YOU
COULD WIND UP WITH DAYTIME HIGHS AROUND 80 (SUCH AS OUR CURRENT
FORECAST FOR FOND DU LAC). IF IT REACHES THE BURN SITE EARLIER
THAN EXPECTED, YOU'LL WIND UP WITH HIGHS IN THE MID TO LOW 70S
(LIKE WHAT WE FORECAST FOR CENTRAL SHEBOYGAN COUNTY), TRENDING
COOLER THAN THAT AS THE FRONT FULLY CROSSES OVER. THE FORECAST
BELOW IS KIND OF A "MIDDLE GROUND" ESTIMATE BETWEEN THE TWO.
REST OF TODAY
SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY SUNNY (30-40 PERCENT).
TEMPERATURE.........62 AT IGNITION...MAX 76.
RH..................75 PERCENT AT IGNITION...MIN 53 PERCENT.
WIND (20 FT)........WINDS SOUTH AT 6 MPH AT IGNITION...OTHERWISE
SOUTH WINDS 7 TO 13 MPH. GUSTS UP TO 25 MPH IN
THE AFTERNOON.
MIXING HEIGHT.......900 FT AGL AT IGNITION...OTHERWISE 3200 FT AGL.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....SOUTH 15 TO 24 MPH.
SMOKE DISPERSAL.....POOR /12100 KNOT-FT/ AT IGNITION.
MAX...EXCELLENT /66500 KNOT-FT/.
TIME (CDT) 9AM 10A 11A 12P 1PM 2PM 3PM 4PM 5PM
SKY (%).........19 31 44 48 51 50 26 20 18
WEATHER COV.....
WEATHER TYPE....
TSTM COV........
TEMP............62 67 69 71 74 74 75 74 73
RH..............75 70 68 63 57 57 54 55 57
20 FT WIND DIR..S S S S S S S S S
20 FT WIND SPD..6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 12
20 FT WIND GUST.12 13 14 16 17 18 19 20 19
MIX HGT (KFT)...0.9 1.4 2.1 2.7 3.1 3.2 2.9 2.5 1.8
TRANSP WIND DIR.S S S S S S S S S
TRANSP WIND SPD.15 17 18 20 22 24 23 23 22
SDSPL KT-FT/100012 21 34 46 58 67 58 51 34
TONIGHT
SKY/WEATHER.........PARTLY CLOUDY (30-40 PERCENT) THEN BECOMING
MOSTLY CLOUDY (65-75 PERCENT). SLIGHT CHANCE OF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IN THE EVENING, THEN
SHOWERS AND CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS OVERNIGHT.
TEMPERATURE.........MIN 57.
RH..................MAX 99 PERCENT.
WIND (20 FT)........SOUTH WINDS 8 TO 12 MPH. GUSTS UP TO 23 MPH
EARLY IN THE EVENING THEN 20 MPH LATE IN THE
EVENING. GUSTY AND ERRATIC WINDS EXPECTED NEAR
THUNDERSTORMS LATE IN THE EVENING. GUSTY AND
ERRATIC WINDS EXPECTED NEAR THUNDERSTORMS
OVERNIGHT.
MIXING HEIGHT.......500 FT AGL.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....SOUTH 16 TO 22 MPH.
SMOKE DISPERSAL.....FAIR (19800 KNOT-FT) EARLY IN THE EVENING
DECREASING TO POOR (6900 KNOT-FT) LATE IN THE
NIGHT.
TIME (CDT) 6PM 7PM 8PM 9PM 10P 11P MID 1AM 2AM 3AM 4AM 5AM
SKY (%).........35 34 33 41 52 63 72 82 83 83 84 84
WEATHER COV..... SCH CHC CHC LKY DEF DEF DEF
WEATHER TYPE.... RW RW RW RW RW RW RW
TSTM COV........ SCH CHC CHC CHC CHC CHC CHC
TEMP............71 68 64 62 61 61 61 62 62 61 60 60
RH..............59 63 70 72 72 75 75 75 78 84 90 87
20 FT WIND DIR..S S S S S S S S S S S S
20 FT WIND SPD..11 10 9 8 8 8 8 8 8 8 8 8
20 FT WIND GUST.18 17 17 14 14 16 16 16 16 16 16 14
MIX HGT (KFT)...1.1 0.5 0.5 0.5 0.5 0.6 0.6 0.7 0.6 0.6 0.6 0.6
TRANSP WIND DIR.S S S S S S S S S S S S
TRANSP WIND SPD.21 18 17 18 20 22 18 18 21 16 16 16
SDSPL KT-FT/100020 9 7 8 8 11 10 11 10 8 8 8
FORECASTER...BS
REQUESTED BY...ANDREW KRSNICH
TYPE OF REQUEST...PRESCRIBED
.TAG 2611318.0/MKX
.DELDT 04/23/26
.FORMATTERVERSION 2.0.0
.EMAIL ANDREW.KRSNICH@WISCONSIN.GOV
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