980  
FNUS73 KMKX 061109  
FWSMKX  
 
SPOT FORECAST FOR ARENA MARSH CATTAILS...WI DNR  
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MILWAUKEE/SULLIVAN WI  
509 AM CST MON FEB 6 2023  
 
FORECAST IS BASED ON IGNITION TIME OF 0700 CST ON FEBRUARY 06.  
 
PLEASE CONTACT THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IF CONDITIONS BECOME  
UNREPRESENTATIVE OR IF YOU HAVE QUESTIONS/CONCERNS ABOUT THIS FORECAST.  
   
DISCUSSION
 
 
LIGHT WINDS AND HIGH RH THIS MORNING WILL GIVE WAY TO INCREASING  
SOUTHEAST WINDS THIS AFTERNOON. FROM NOON TO 2 PM, DURING THE  
PERIOD OF PEAK MIXING FOR TODAY, THE VENT RATE IS EXPECTED TO BE  
20,600 AND THE MIXING HEIGHT WILL BE AROUND 1,200.  
   
REST OF TODAY
 
 
SKY/WEATHER.........PARTLY SUNNY (50-60 PERCENT). PATCHY FOG EARLY  
IN THE MORNING.  
TEMPERATURE.........15 AT IGNITION...MAX 38.  
RH..................96 PERCENT AT IGNITION...MIN 72 PERCENT.  
WIND (20 FT)........WINDS SOUTHEAST AT 3 MPH AT  
IGNITION...OTHERWISE LIGHT WINDS BECOMING  
SOUTHEAST 5 TO 12 MPH WITH GUSTS TO AROUND 29  
MPH IN THE LATE MORNING AND AFTERNOON.  
MIXING HEIGHT.......400 FT AGL AT IGNITION...OTHERWISE 1200 FT AGL.  
TRANSPORT WINDS.....SOUTH 12 TO 21 MPH SHIFTING TO THE SOUTHEAST 20  
TO 23 MPH IN THE AFTERNOON.  
SMOKE DISPERSAL.....POOR /3900 KNOT-FT/ AT IGNITION. MAX...FAIR  
/23500 KNOT-FT/.  
HAINES INDEX........4 OR LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME DOMINATED  
FIRE GROWTH AT IGNITION...MAX 4.  
 
TIME (CST) 7AM 8AM 9AM 10A 11A 12P 1PM 2PM 3PM 4PM 5PM  
SKY (%).........38 54 54 54 56 58 60 61 63 67 72  
WEATHER COV.....PTY PTY  
WEATHER TYPE....FOG FOG  
TSTM COV........  
TEMP............15 19 22 28 32 34 36 37 38 38 36  
RH..............96 92 92 85 78 78 75 75 73 73 79  
20 FT WIND DIR..SE SE SE SE SE SE SE SE SE SE SE  
20 FT WIND SPD..3 5 6 7 8 10 12 12 13 13 14  
20 FT WIND GUST.12 13 15 17 18 23 25 28 29 29 28  
MIX HGT (KFT)...0.4 0.4 0.5 1.1 1.2 1.2 1.2 1.1 0.9 0.8 0.8  
TRANSP WIND DIR.SE S S S S S SE SE SE SE SE  
TRANSP WIND SPD.12 13 14 18 20 21 22 20 21 21 23  
HAINES INDEX....4 4 4 4 4 4 4 4 4 4 4  
SDSPL KT-FT/10004 5 6 18 20 22 24 18 17 14 17  
   
TONIGHT
 
 
SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY CLOUDY (80-90 PERCENT). RAIN SHOWERS  
LIKELY IN THE EVENING, THEN SLIGHT CHANCE OF  
RAIN SHOWERS OVERNIGHT.  
TEMPERATURE.........MIN 32.  
RH..................MAX 99 PERCENT.  
WIND (20 FT)........SOUTH WINDS 12 TO 16 MPH SHIFTING TO THE WEST  
AROUND 12 MPH OVERNIGHT. GUSTS UP TO 35 MPH  
DECREASING TO 26 MPH AFTER 3 AM.  
MIXING HEIGHT.......700 FT AGL.  
TRANSPORT WINDS.....SOUTH 20 TO 25 MPH SHIFTING TO THE WEST 18 TO  
21 MPH OVERNIGHT.  
SMOKE DISPERSAL.....FAIR (21600 KNOT-FT) EARLY IN THE EVENING  
DECREASING TO POOR (12200 KNOT-FT) LATE IN THE  
NIGHT.  
HAINES INDEX........2 TO 3 OR VERY LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME  
DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH.  
 
TIME (CST) 6 PM 8 PM 10 PM MIDNGT 2 AM 4 AM  
SKY (%).........76 86 93 94 84 82  
WEATHER COV.....S CHC LIKELY CHANCE S CHC  
WEATHER TYPE....RNSHWR RNSHWR RNSHWR RNSHWR NONE NONE  
TSTM COV........  
TEMP............35 38 39 40 38 35  
RH..............82 82 89 96 96 96  
20 FT WIND......SE 17 S 20 S 18 SW 15 SW 15 W 15  
20 FT WIND GUST.30 33 33 26 26 26  
MIX HGT (FT)....900 900 900 700 900 1100  
TRANSPORT WIND..S 23 S 25 S 23 SW 20 W 18 W 21  
HAINES INDEX....2 2 2 3 3 3  
SDSPL KT-FT/100017 21 18 12 14 20  
   
TUESDAY
 
 
SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY CLOUDY (70-80 PERCENT) THEN BECOMING  
MOSTLY SUNNY (30-40 PERCENT).  
TEMPERATURE.........MAX 37.  
RH..................MIN 69 PERCENT.  
WIND (20 FT)........WEST WINDS 8 TO 12 MPH. GUSTS UP TO 26 MPH.  
MIXING HEIGHT.......2300 FT AGL.  
TRANSPORT WINDS.....WEST 15 TO 23 MPH.  
SMOKE DISPERSAL.....FAIR (17700 KNOT-FT) EARLY IN THE MORNING  
INCREASING TO GOOD (44900 KNOT-FT) IN THE  
AFTERNOON.  
HAINES INDEX........4 OR LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME DOMINATED  
FIRE GROWTH.  
 
TIME (CST) 6AM 7AM 8AM 9AM 10A 11A 12P 1PM 2PM 3PM 4PM 5PM  
SKY (%).........89 85 82 78 68 59 49 41 34 26 22 17  
WEATHER COV.....  
WEATHER TYPE....  
TSTM COV........  
TEMP............34 33 33 33 33 34 35 35 36 36 35 33  
RH..............92 92 92 89 89 82 75 75 69 69 69 72  
20 FT WIND DIR..W W W W W W W W W W W W  
20 FT WIND SPD..15 14 14 15 14 13 13 13 13 13 12 10  
20 FT WIND GUST.26 24 24 24 23 22 22 22 22 21 21 18  
MIX HGT (KFT)...1.2 1.5 1.6 1.8 2.2 2.2 2.3 2.2 2.1 2.0 1.7 1.4  
TRANSP WIND DIR.W W W W W W W W W W W W  
TRANSP WIND SPD.21 21 20 23 23 23 22 21 21 20 17 15  
HAINES INDEX....4 4 4 4 4 4 4 4 4 4 4 4  
SDSPL KT-FT/100021 27 28 37 44 45 44 40 38 34 25 18  
 

 
FORECASTER...CRONCE  
REQUESTED BY...SCOTT LANCASTER  
TYPE OF REQUEST...PRESCRIBED  
.TAG 2301981.0/MKX  
.DELDT 02/06/23  
.FORMATTERVERSION 2.0.0  
.EMAIL SCOTT.LANCASTER@WISCONSIN.GOV  
 
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