931
FNUS73 KMPX 141042
FWSMPX
SPOT FORECAST FOR CARLOS AVERY GAME FARM...MN DNR
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
542 AM CDT THU MAY 14 2026
FORECAST IS BASED ON IGNITION TIME OF 0900 CDT ON MAY 14.
PLEASE CONTACT OUR OFFICE IF YOU HAVE QUESTIONS OR CONCERNS WITH
THIS FORECAST.
DISCUSSION
FOR THE CARLOS AVERY GAME FARM, SUNNY SKIES WILL FILL IN WITH
CLOUDS DURING THE AFTERNOON AS A LINE OF ISOLATED TO SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS BECOME POSSIBLE BY LATE AFTERNOON. MANY
OF THE SHOWERS WILL END UP AS VIRGA DUE TO DRY AIR NEAR THE
SURFACE, WITH THE MAIN IMPACT BEING WIND GUSTS SIMILAR TO
THUNDERSTORMS EVEN FROM SHOWERS/STORMS THAT DRY UP BEFORE REACHING
THE GROUND.
CONDITIONS AT IGNITION WILL INCLUDE TEMPERATURES IN THE MID 50S
AND RH ALSO IN THE MID 50S, WITH TEMPS RISING TO THE UPPER 70S AS
RH FALLS INTO THE UPPER 20S. NON STORM WINDS WILL REMAIN OUT OF
THE SOUTH AT 10-15MPH AT IGNITION, INCREASING TO 15-20MPH WITH
GUSTS AS HIGH AS 30-35MPH IN THE MIDDLE OF THE DAY. ANY DEVIATIONS
FROM A SOUTHERLY WIND WILL BE THE RESULT OF THE AFOREMENTIONED
SHOWERS/STORMS LATER IN THE DAY.
REST OF TODAY
SKY/WEATHER.........SUNNY (15-25 PERCENT) THEN BECOMING MOSTLY
CLOUDY (65-75 PERCENT). CHANCE OF RAIN SHOWERS
AND SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS LATE IN THE
AFTERNOON.
TEMPERATURE.........56 AT IGNITION...MAX 78.
RH..................55 PERCENT AT IGNITION...MIN 28 PERCENT.
WIND (20 FT)........WINDS SOUTH AT 14 MPH AT IGNITION...OTHERWISE
SOUTH WINDS 14 TO 18 MPH WITH GUSTS TO AROUND
31 MPH. GUSTY AND ERRATIC WINDS EXPECTED NEAR
THUNDERSTORMS LATE IN THE AFTERNOON.
SMOKE DISPERSAL.....FAIR /23400 KNOT-FT/ AT IGNITION.
MAX...EXCELLENT /115800 KNOT-FT/ INCREASING TO
GOOD (50000 KNOT-FT) EARLY IN THE MORNING
INCREASING TO EXCELLENT (129600 KNOT-FT) IN THE
AFTERNOON LATE IN THE AFTERNOON.
MIXING HEIGHT.......1300 FT AGL AT IGNITION...OTHERWISE 4600 FT
AGL.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....SOUTH 21 TO 30 MPH INCREASING TO 24 TO 32 MPH
LATE IN THE AFTERNOON.
TIME (CDT) 9AM 10A 11A 12P 1PM 2PM 3PM 4PM 5PM 6PM 7PM 8PM
SKY COVER.......CLR MCR MCR MCR PC PC MC MC MC MC MC MC
WEATHER COV..... CHC CHC CHC SCH
WEATHER TYPE.... RW RW RW RW
TSTM COV........ SCH SCH SCH
TEMP............56 63 66 70 73 75 76 77 75 73 71 68
RH..............55 44 38 33 31 28 28 30 33 37 41 47
20 FT WIND DIR..S S S S S S S S S S S S
20 FT WIND SPD..14 16 17 18 18 18 17 17 17 16 16 16
20 FT WIND GUST.25 28 29 29 30 30 30 31 30 30 30 30
MIX HGT (KFT)...1.3 2.1 3.0 4.0 4.5 4.6 4.5 4.0 2.4 1.0 0.9 0.9
TRANSP WIND DIR.S S S S S S S S S S S S
TRANSP WIND SPD.21 23 26 30 30 32 32 30 24 21 21 24
TONIGHT
SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY CLOUDY (65-75 PERCENT) THEN BECOMING
PARTLY CLOUDY (35-45 PERCENT) THEN BECOMING
CLEAR (0-10 PERCENT). CHANCE OF RAIN SHOWERS
AND SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS EARLY IN THE
EVENING, THEN SLIGHT CHANCE OF RAIN SHOWERS
EARLY IN THE EVENING. SLIGHT CHANCE OF RAIN
SHOWERS LATE IN THE EVENING.
TEMPERATURE.........MIN 56.
RH..................MAX 67 PERCENT.
WIND (20 FT)........SOUTH WINDS 10 TO 17 MPH WITH GUSTS TO AROUND
30 MPH. GUSTY AND ERRATIC WINDS EXPECTED NEAR
THUNDERSTORMS EARLY IN THE EVENING.
SMOKE DISPERSAL.....FAIR (19300 KNOT-FT) EARLY IN THE EVENING
DECREASING TO POOR (7600 KNOT-FT) LATE IN THE
NIGHT.
MIXING HEIGHT.......500 FT AGL.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....SOUTH 17 TO 26 MPH.
FRIDAY
SKY/WEATHER.........SUNNY (0-10 PERCENT).
TEMPERATURE.........MAX 86.
RH..................MIN 19 PERCENT.
WIND (20 FT)........SOUTHWEST WINDS 9 TO 14 MPH SHIFTING TO THE
WEST 13 TO 15 MPH LATE IN THE AFTERNOON. GUSTS
UP TO 26 MPH.
SMOKE DISPERSAL.....POOR (4900 KNOT-FT) EARLY IN THE MORNING
INCREASING TO GOOD (48700 KNOT-FT) IN THE
AFTERNOON INCREASING TO EXCELLENT (166400
KNOT-FT).
MIXING HEIGHT.......8000 FT AGL.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....WEST 13 TO 16 MPH INCREASING TO 29 TO 33 MPH.
FORECASTER...HASENSTEIN
REQUESTED BY...CODY BURKE
TYPE OF REQUEST...PRESCRIBED
.TAG 2613547.0/MPX
.DELDT 05/14/26
.FORMATTERVERSION 2.0.0
.EMAIL ALEXANDRA.SCHMITZ@STATE.MN.US,CODY.BURKE@STATE.MN.US
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