285
FXUS63 KDLH 150519
AFDDLH
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DULUTH MN
1219 AM CDT MON JUN 15 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- NON-SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS MONDAY AFTERNOON.
- FORECAST RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 0.25 TO 0.50 INCHES FOR WEDNESDAY
INTO THURSDAY SOUTH OF US HWY 2.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 136 PM CDT SUN JUN 14 2026
FOR THE REST OF THE DAY, CLOUDS STUCK AROUND A LITTLE LONGER
THIS MORNING WHICH HAS TRENDED RH UP JUST A SMIDGE ACROSS THE
NORTHLAND. HOWEVER, THE HRRR STILL POINTS TO SUB 25 PERCENT
VALUES OVER NORTHEAST/NORTH-CENTRAL MINNESOTA THIS AFTERNOON.
THESE CRITICALLY LOW HUMIDITY VALUES BELOW 25% ARE COMBINING
WITH GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS OF 15 TO 20 MPH AND GUSTS UP TO 30
MPH, KEEPING THE RED FLAG WARNING ACTIVE ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE
ARROWHEAD REGION. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE UNSEASONABLY COOL,
ONLY REACHING THE UPPER 60S. TONIGHT, THE GUSTY WINDS WILL
DIMINISH AS A COOLER AIR MASS SETTLES OVER THE REGION, ALLOWING
LOW TEMPERATURES TO DROP COMFORTABLY INTO THE 40S.
SUNSHINE WILL KICK OFF THE START OF THE NEW WORK WEEK, BUT
CLOUDS WILL QUICKLY INCREASE AS A FAST-MOVING DISTURBANCE
DROPS DOWN FROM CANADA. MONDAY AFTERNOON LOOKS STORMY, BUT
NOTHING SEVERE IS EXPECTED AS THESE SHOWERS AND NON-SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS TRACK ACROSS THE REGION. TEMPERATURES WILL
CONTINUE TO SLOWLY MODERATE AHEAD OF THIS SYSTEM, REACHING THE
LOW TO MID 70S FOR MOST LOCATIONS.
THE OVERALL WEATHER PATTERN THROUGH THE MIDDLE AND END OF NEXT
WEEK WILL BE CHARACTERIZED BY CONTINUOUS NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT.
THIS SETUP WILL BRING MULTIPLE QUICK-MOVING SYSTEMS PASSING
THROUGH OUR AREA, PROVIDING PERIODIC CHANCES FOR RAIN AND
THUNDERSTORMS. BASED ON THE LATEST GUIDANCE, WE KEPT HIGHER
RAINFALL AMOUNTS IN FOR WED INTO THU ACROSS THE SOUTHERN 1/3 OF
OUR FORECAST AREA. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN NEAR OR SLIGHTLY
BELOW NORMAL THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK, WITH HIGHS
GENERALLY IN THE UPPER 60S TO LOW 70S.
BY LATE THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY, BROAD UPPER LEVEL RIDGING
CURRENTLY STATIONED OVER THE WESTERN UNITED STATES MAY BEGIN
TO DRIFT EASTWARD. THIS SHIFT WOULD POTENTIALLY TRANSITION OUR
WINDS TO A MORE SOUTHERLY DIRECTION, INTRODUCING A WARM AIR
ADVECTION PATTERN. AS A RESULT, WE COULD SEE A RETURN TO MORE
TYPICAL, WARMER SUMMERTIME WEATHER AND DRIER CONDITIONS HEADING
INTO NEXT WEEKEND.
AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY/
ISSUED AT 1219 AM CDT MON JUN 15 2026
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PREVAIL INTO MONDAY AFTERNOON.
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE FORECAST TO
DEVELOP DURING THE AFTERNOON AND LINGER INTO THE OVERNIGHT
HOURS. CEILINGS WILL REMAIN VFR, BUT VISIBILITIES MAY FALL TO
MVFR DURING AND HEAVIER SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS. NO STRONG OR
SEVERE STORMS ARE EXPECTED. WINDS WILL BE GUSTY THROUGH THE DAY
FROM THE WEST WITH GUSTS TO 15 TO 20 KNOTS.
MARINE /FOR NEARSHORE WATERS OF WESTERN LAKE SUPERIOR/
ISSUED AT 915 PM CDT SUN JUN 14 2026
WESTERLY WINDS 10 TO 15 KNOTS OVERNIGHT INCREASE MONDAY DAYTIME
TO GUST 25 KNOTS IN FAR NORTH SHORE. A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WAS
ISSUED FOR THE ZONE GRAND MARAIS TO GRAND PORTAGE 7AM TO 7PM
MONDAY FOR THIS CASE. THIS HEADLINE MAY HAVE TO BE ALSO EXPANDED
IN AREAL COVERAGE TO THE OUTER APOSTLE ISLANDS IF CONFIDENCE IN
THOSE WIND GUSTS REACHING THOSE WATERS INCREASES. WINDS SHIFT TO
NORTH-NORTHEASTERLY TUESDAY AROUND 10 KNOTS BEFORE BECOMING
LIGHT AND VARIABLE TUESDAY EVENING.
FOR THE OPEN WATER DISCUSSION, REFER TO THE NWS MARQUETTE AREA
FORECAST DISCUSSION AT WEATHER.GOV/MQT.
FIRE WEATHER
ISSUED AT 136 PM CDT SUN JUN 14 2026
DRY AND BREEZY CONDITIONS WILL LEAD TO CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER
CONCERNS FOR THE MINNESOTA ARROWHEAD THIS AFTERNOON. WHILE
CLOUDS STUCK AROUND LONGER THIS MORNING TO BUMP RELATIVE
HUMIDITY UP A SMIDGE, HIGH RESOLUTION MODELS STILL POINT TO SUB
25 PERCENT VALUES ACROSS ST. LOUIS COUNTY. THIS WILL BE PAIRED
WITH WESTERLY WINDS GUSTING 20 TO 30 MPH. WINDS LOOK A BIT
LIGHTER FOR MONDAY WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
RETURNING IN THE AFTERNOON. PERIODIC RAIN CHANCES WILL THEN
CONTINUE THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK.
SEE THE FIRE WEATHER FORECAST PRODUCT FOR A MORE THOROUGH
BREAKDOWN OF FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS.
DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MN...NONE.
WI...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 7 AM THIS MORNING TO 7 PM CDT THIS
EVENING FOR LSZ140.
DISCUSSION...WOLFE
AVIATION...BJH
MARINE...NLY
FIRE WEATHER...WOLFE
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