596
FXUS63 KDLH 241135
AFDDLH
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DULUTH MN
635 AM CDT MON AUG 24 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- THE NEXT CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL BE TONIGHT
THROUGH TUESDAY AND AGAIN WEDNESDAY.
- SEVERE STORMS ARE POSSIBLE, PARTICULARLY TUESDAY AFTERNOON
AND EVENING WITH THE PASSAGE OF A COLD FRONT.
- SEASONAL, DRY CONDITIONS RETURN FOR THE LATER PART OF THIS
WEEK.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 136 AM CDT MON AUG 24 2026
CURRENT CONDITIONS/THIS MORNING:
HIGH PRESSURE IS SLOWLY SLIDING EAST THIS MORNING, WITH LIGHT
AND VARIABLE WINDS. SATELLITE IMAGERY IS SHOWING SOME HIGH LEVEL
CLOUDS PUSHING INTO THE AREA FROM THE WEST, BUT WE WILL STILL
HAVE GOOD RADIATIONAL COOLING CONDITIONS, AND WHILE I DO NOT
EXPECT US TO GET QUITE AS COLD AS LAST NIGHT, IT WILL STILL BE
COOL WITH LOWS IN THE 40S AND PERHAPS UPPER 30S. CONDITIONS WILL
ALSO BE GOOD FOR FOG, BRINGING SOME PATCHY DENSE FOG THAT WILL
BURN OFF QUICKLY AFTER SUNRISE.
TODAY:
SOUTHERLY WARM AIR ADVECTION WILL PUSH HIGHS UP INTO THE MID
70S TO AROUND 80 ACROSS THE AREA. WE HAVE BEEN WATCHING THE
POTENTIAL FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS APPROACHING THE AREA
WITH A WAVE OF WARM AIR ADVECTION EARLY THIS MORNING, WHICH WE
CAN SEE HAVE DEVELOPED OVER NORTHERN NORTH DAKOTA AS OF 1 AM.
HOWEVER, MOST MESOSCALE ANALYSIS DOES NOT SUPPORT THIS
CONVECTION GETTING MUCH FARTHER EAST THAN IT ALREADY IS, AND
SHOULD DETERIORATE TO MAINLY CLOUD DEBRIS BEFORE IT GETS TO THE
NORTHLAND. PRECIPITATION CHANCES INCREASE TONIGHT AS THE MAIN
UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE MOVES ACROSS THE AREA TUESDAY INTO
WEDNESDAY. TONIGHT THERE WILL BE ENOUGH INSTABILITY AND DECENT
DEEP LAYER SHEAR TO INITIATE CONVECTION OVER EASTERN NORTH
DAKOTA, THEN GRADUALLY SLIDE EAST OVERNIGHT. HOWEVER, LIKE
TONIGHT, THE INSTABILITY AND SHEAR WEAKENS SIGNIFICANTLY TO THE
EAST, AND THE STORMS ARE LIKELY TO WEAKEN AND DISSIPATE AS THEY
MOVE EAST. WE DO HAVE A SLIVER OF MARGINAL SEVERE RISK JUST TO
OUR WEST FROM SPC, BUT IT AND THE EVEN FARTHER WEST SLIGHT RISK
ARE LIKELY TO BE THE MAIN CONCERN OF THE NIGHT AND AM LESS
CONCERNED FOR THE NORTHLAND.
TUESDAY: WARMER AND MORE HUMID CONDITIONS PUSH INTO THE AREA,
WITH SURFACE BASED INSTABILITY DEVELOPING DURING THE AFTERNOON
AND EVENING HOURS. THEN, JUST AS THE UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE MOVES
ACROSS THE AREA AND DEEP LAYER SHEAR PARAMETERS INCREASE, THERE
WILL BE ANOTHER WAVE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WHICH MOVE
ACROSS THE NORTHLAND. THESE STORMS WILL HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO BE
STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS, WITH A FEW STORMS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING
1" HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS. SPC HAS A MARGINAL RISK (LEVEL 1
OUT OF 5) OUTLINED FOR ALL OF THE NORTHLAND.
SHOWERS AND NON-SEVERE STORMS WILL REDEVELOP ACROSS THE AREA ON
WEDNESDAY IN THE CYCLONIC FLOW BEHIND THE UPPER LEVEL
SHORTWAVE. WHILE WE WILL HAVE MOSTLY CYCLONIC FLOW ON THURSDAY,
THE SURFACE RIDGE BUILDING INTO THE AREA AND LOW LEVEL DRY AIR
SHOULD KEEP ANYTHING BUT DIURNAL CUMULUS FROM FORMING. WEDNESDAY
AND THURSDAY WILL BE COOLER AGAIN AS WELL.
DRY AND SEASONABLE CONDITIONS TO CONTINUE INTO FRIDAY WITH HIGH
PRESSURE LINGERING OVER THE AREA. WEAK UPPER LEVEL RIDGING
BUILDS INTO THE AREA FOR THE WEEKEND, WITH POOR PREDICTABILITY
FOR PRECIPITATION CHANCES AS WEAK SHORTWAVES MAY SLIDE THROUGH
THE FLOW ALOFT AND BRING A ROUND OF SHOWERS/STORMS. THE FORECAST
HAS SOME LOW END CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION, BUT THESE MAY BE
MORE LIMITED THAN IS CURRENTLY DEPICTED. TEMPERATURES SHOULD
REMAIN NEAR NORMAL THROUGH THE WEEKEND. ANOTHER POTENT UPPER
LEVEL LOW WILL PROGRESS ACROSS THE AREA EARLY NEXT WEEK, WHICH
MAY BRING ANOTHER ROUND OF HIGHER CONFIDENCE PRECIPITATION
CHANCES.
AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z TUESDAY/
ISSUED AT 635 AM CDT MON AUG 24 2026
PATCHY FOG WILL BE LIFTING OVER THE NEXT HOUR AT KHIB AS DAYTIME
HEATING BEGINS. CONDITIONS WILL BE VFR TODAY WITH INCREASING CLOUD
COVER AS LOW PRESSURE MOVES TOWARDS THE AREA. SHOWERS WILL BE
APPEARING ON RADAR THIS MORNING INTO THE AFTERNOON, BUT LITTLE TO NO
PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED AT THE SURFACE DUE TO LOW-LEVEL DRY AIR.
SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES INCREASE TONIGHT IN NORTHEAST
MINNESOTA, WITH THE GREATEST POTENTIAL FOR THUNDERSTORMS BEING IN
KINL. SEVERE STORMS ARE ANTICIPATED TO BE JUST TO THE WEST,
WEAKENING AS THEY ENTER THE REGION TONIGHT.
MARINE /FOR NEARSHORE WATERS OF WESTERN LAKE SUPERIOR/
ISSUED AT 136 AM CDT MON AUG 24 2026
QUIET CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS WESTERN LAKE SUPERIOR
THROUGH TODAY AND TONIGHT WITH WAVES OF 1 FOOT OR LESS AND WINDS
BECOMING EASTERLY AT GENERALLY LESS THAN 10 KNOTS. WINDS
INCREASE A LITTLE OUT OF THE SOUTHEAST ON TUESDAY, ALONG WITH
SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES. WE SHOULD HAVE AN INITIAL WAVE
OF THEM TUESDAY MORNING. ADDITIONAL STORMS WILL DEVELOP DURING
THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING, SOME OF WHICH MAY BE STRONG TO
SEVERE. SHOWER CHANCES TO LINGER INTO WEDNESDAY.
FOR THE OPEN WATER DISCUSSION, REFER TO THE NWS MARQUETTE AREA
FORECAST DISCUSSION AT WEATHER.GOV/MQT.
FIRE WEATHER
ISSUED AT 136 AM CDT MON AUG 24 2026
HIGH PRESSURE SLIDES TO OUR EAST TODAY, ALLOWING MOISTURE TO
BEGIN TO PUSH INTO THE AREA FROM THE WEST. RELATIVE HUMIDITY
VALUES TO BE LOW AGAIN FOR THE MN ARROWHEAD AND NORTHWEST
WISCONSIN, BUT FARTHER WEST IN MINNESOTA RH VALUES WILL INCREASE
TO OVER 40 PERCENT. WINDS WILL BECOME SOUTHERLY TODAY, AND MAY
GUST AROUND 10 MPH DURING THE AFTERNOON FOR PARTS OF THE AREA.
SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES INCREASE FOR MONDAY NIGHT
THROUGH WEDNESDAY, MOST ESPECIALLY ON TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND
EVENING, WHEN SOME STORMS MAY BECOME STRONG. RH VALUES TO REMAIN
ABOVE 40 PERCENT FOR BOTH TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY. PRECIPITATION
CHANCES ARE HIGHEST ALONG AND NORTH OF THE IRON RANGE, BUT MOST
AREAS HAVE AT LEAST A 40 PERCENT CHANCE OF A WETTING RAINFALL.
SEE THE FIRE WEATHER FORECAST PRODUCT FOR A MORE THOROUGH
BREAKDOWN OF FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS.
DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MN...NONE.
WI...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
DISCUSSION...LE
AVIATION...UNRUH
MARINE...LE
FIRE WEATHER...LE
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