422
FXUS63 KDLH 312350
AFDDLH
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DULUTH MN
650 PM CDT SUN MAY 31 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- SCATTERED SHOWERS AND PERHAPS A RUMBLE OF THUNDER OR TWO
POSSIBLE AROUND THE BRAINERD LAKES AREA INTO PARTS OF
NORTHWEST WISCONSIN TONIGHT INTO MONDAY.
- NEAR TO ABOVE AVERAGE TEMPERATURES CONTINUE THIS WEEK AWAY
FROM LAKE SUPERIOR. SEVERAL DAYS WILL FEATURE HIGH
TEMPERATURES IN THE UPPER 80S OUTSIDE OF THE LAKE BREEZE.
- NEAR-CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED FOR SEVERAL
PLACES THROUGH MID-WEEK DUE TO CONTINUED LOW AFTERNOON RH
VALUES.
- WIDESPREAD CHANCES FOR RAIN INCREASE AFTER WEDNESDAY THIS
WEEK.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 228 PM CDT SUN MAY 31 2026
CURRENT WEATHER THROUGH MONDAY:
AS HAS BEEN THE TREND FOR SEVERAL DAYS, THE WEATHER IS PRETTY
DRY AND QUIET OUT THERE. RELATIVE HUMIDITY HAS FALLEN BELOW 25
PERCENT FOR MUCH OF NORTHEAST MINNESOTA WHERE SKIES ARE MOSTLY
CLEAR. WINDS ARE PRETTY LIGHT OUT THERE, SO FIRE WEATHER
CONDITIONS ARE NOT TO RED FLAG CRITERIA, BUT NEAR-CRITICAL FIRE
WEATHER CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AND EARLY
EVENING.
AROUND THE BRAINERD LAKES, A RIBBON OF VORTICITY HAS BEEN
PRODUCING CLOUDS AND A FEW SHOWERS. THIS FEATURE WILL VERY
SLOWLY MOVE NORTHEAST TONIGHT AND INTO MONDAY, SO SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND PERHAPS A RUMBLE OF THUNDER OR TWO WILL BE POSSIBLE
FROM THE BRAINERD LAKES AND EAST-SOUTHEAST INTO PARTS OF
NORTHWEST WISCONSIN. RAINFALL AMOUNTS FROM ALL THIS SHOULD BE
PRETTY LIGHT, BUT LOCALIZED AMOUNTS AROUND OR A BIT ABOVE A
TENTH OF AN INCH WILL BE POSSIBLE.
NEAR-CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AND HEAT:
WE WILL STILL BE LARGELY UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF HIGH PRESSURE
TO THE EAST THROUGH ABOUT TUESDAY NIGHT. WITH CONTINUED
SOUTHERLY FLOW, MOST PLACES WILL SEE A SIMILAR WEATHER PATTERN
OF WARM TO HOT HIGH TEMPERATURES WITH DRY CONDITIONS. WE CAN
EXPECT RELATIVE HUMIDITY TO FALL BELOW 25 PERCENT FOR MANY AREAS
ONCE AGAIN MONDAY AND TUESDAY, RESULTING IN NEAR-CRITICAL FIRE
WEATHER CONDITIONS. WINDS WILL BE A BIT MORE BLUSTERY ON MONDAY,
BUT THE STRONGEST WINDS WILL BE AROUND LAKE SUPERIOR AND THUS
DISPLACED FROM WHERE THE LOWEST HUMIDITY IS EXPECTED. THEREFORE,
RED FLAG CONDITIONS ARE NOT EXPECTED IN THE NEXT FEW DAYS.
PATTERN CHANGE WEDNESDAY:
A CLOSED LOW THAT'S EXPECTED TO PARK APPROXIMATELY OVER
SASKATCHEWAN MONDAY AND TUESDAY WILL EVENTUALLY MOVE EAST AND
BRING WITH IT A COLD FRONT THAT WILL BRING SOME MORE WIDESPREAD
CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO THE NORTHLAND. AT THIS
POINT, IT DOESN'T LOOK LIKE INSTABILITY WILL SUPPORT SEVERE
WEATHER, BUT SOME GENERAL THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE. MOST
ENSEMBLES SUGGEST RAINFALL AMOUNTS IN THE QUARTER TO HALF INCH
RANGE, BUT THERE WILL PROBABLY BE SOME VARIABILITY IN AMOUNTS
DUE TO CONVECTION.
DOMINANT RIDGING WILL LIKELY RETURN FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY, BUT
THERE COULD BE SOME WARM-FRONTAL SHOWERS AND STORMS AS SOUTHERLY
FLOW RETURNS. OVERALL, IT LOOKS LIKE A BIT OF A "DIRTY RIDGE"
THROUGH THE WEEKEND AND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH CHANCES FOR
WEAK DISTURBANCES TO PASS THROUGH THAT COULD KEEP SCATTERED RAIN
CHANCES GOING.
TEMPERATURE-WISE, WE ARE PRETTY FIRMLY SITUATED INTO A
SUMMERTIME PATTERN, SO HIGHS IN THE 80S ARE LIKELY TO BE COMMON
FOR AT LEAST THE NEXT WEEK.
AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z TUESDAY/
ISSUED AT 649 PM CDT SUN MAY 31 2026
VFR CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST FOR MOST OF THE PERIOD. BRD MAY SEE
A PERIOD OF MVFR CEILINGS MONDAY MORNING. SPORADIC SHOWERS ARE
EXPECTED AT BRD AS WELL, SOME OF WHICH MAY BRIEFLY REDUCE
VISIBILITY TO AROUND 6 MILES. A SMALL PERCENTAGE OF MODELS BRING
CEILINGS DOWN TO IFR FOR AT BRD MONDAY MORNING. A FEW MODELS
ALSO POINT TO MVFR FOG DEVELOPING. WILL KEEP AN EYE ON THE
TRENDS AND MAY NEED TO AMEND BRD TOWARD WORSE CONDITIONS IF
CONFIDENCE INCREASES IN WORSE CONDITIONS DEVELOPING.
MARINE /FOR NEARSHORE WATERS OF WESTERN LAKE SUPERIOR/
ISSUED AT 228 PM CDT SUN MAY 31 2026
FAIRLY LIGHT ONSHORE WINDS ARE IN PLACE THIS AFTERNOON,
RESULTING IN SOME CHOPPY WATERS AROUND THE TWIN PORTS, BUT WAVE
HEIGHTS ARE EXPECTED TO GENERAL REMAIN AROUND A FOOT THROUGH
THE EARLY EVENING. WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN NORTHEASTERLY
THROUGH MONDAY AND TUESDAY. A TIGHTENING PRESSURE GRADIENT ON
MONDAY IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE SOME STRONGER GUSTS ALONG THE
NORTH SHORE AND DOWN INTO THE TWIN PORTS. A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED FOR SEVERAL HOURS MONDAY AFTERNOON AND
EARLY EVENING. WINDS WILL BE LIGHTER TUESDAY, AND SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORIES ARE NOT ANTICIPATED AT THIS TIME. WINDS WILL SHIFT
MORE SOUTHERLY ON WEDNESDAY AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT.
FOR THE OPEN WATER DISCUSSION, REFER TO THE NWS MARQUETTE AREA
FORECAST DISCUSSION AT WEATHER.GOV/MQT.
FIRE WEATHER
ISSUED AT 228 PM CDT SUN MAY 31 2026
EXPECT A SIMILAR WEATHER PATTERN OF WARM TO HOT TEMPERATURES
WITH DRY CONDITIONS TO PERSIST THROUGH AT LEAST TUESDAY. HIGH
PRESSURE AND LIGHT SOUTHEAST WINDS MONDAY AND SOUTHERLY WINDS
TUESDAY WILL KEEP CONDITIONS FROM BECOMING CRITICAL, BUT WITH
FAIRLY WIDESPREAD RH BELOW 25 PERCENT EXPECTED, CONDITIONS WILL
BE NEAR-CRITICAL FOR MANY PLACES.
SOME SCATTERED SHOWERS AND POSSIBLY A STORM OR TWO ARE POSSIBLE
AROUND THE BRAINERD LAKES AND INTO NORTHWEST WISCONSIN THROUGH
MONDAY. NOT MUCH RAIN IS EXPECTED, BUT A FEW PLACES COULD PICK
UP AROUND A TENTH OF AN INCH.
GOING INTO WEDNESDAY, A BIT OF A PATTERN CHANGE IS LOOKING
LIKELY WITH A COLD FRONT THAT MAY BRING SOME SHOWERS AND STORMS
TO MOST PLACES INTO THURSDAY. RAINFALL AMOUNTS WILL LIKELY BE
VARIABLE, BUT MOST MODELS SUGGEST AROUND A QUARTER TO HALF AN
INCH FOR SEVERAL PLACES. THERE MAY BE ADDITIONAL SCATTERED RAIN
CHANCES GOING INTO NEXT WEEKEND AS WELL. WITH A MORE MOIST
WEATHER PATTERN, RH IN GENERAL IS LIKELY TO BE HIGHER, REDUCING
NEAR-CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CHANCES.
SEE THE FIRE WEATHER FORECAST PRODUCT FOR A MORE THOROUGH
BREAKDOWN OF FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS.
DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MN...NONE.
WI...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
DISCUSSION...JDS
AVIATION...HUYCK
MARINE...JDS
FIRE WEATHER...JDS
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