246
FXUS63 KDLH 171134 AAA
AFDDLH
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DULUTH MN
634 AM CDT WED OCT 17 2018
UPDATE
ISSUED AT 624 AM CDT WED OCT 17 2018
UPDATED FOR THE 12Z AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW.
SHORT TERM
(TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 247 AM CDT WED OCT 17 2018
BREEZY AND COOL TODAY WITH SKIES CLEARING THIS AFTERNOON.
ISOLATED SNOW SHOWERS EARLY. TEMPERATURES TREND WARMER WITH
SOUTHWEST WINDS FOR THURSDAY.
FAIRLY QUIET SHORT TERM SHAPING UP ACROSS THE NORTHLAND. COLD AIR
ADVECTION AND CYCLONIC FLOW ALOFT WILL CONTINUE THE BREEZY AND
COOL CONDITIONS OF THE PAST FEW DAYS. NORTHWEST WINDS OF 10 TO 15
MPH WITH GUSTS TO 25 MPH ARE EXPECTED. A FEW ISOLATED SNOW SHOWERS
ARE POSSIBLE WHILE CLOUDS LINGER. EARLY SEASON LAKE SUPERIOR AND
INLAND LAKE TEMPERATURES ARE QUITE WARM AND LAKE EFFECT STREAMERS
HAVE BEEN OBSERVED ON GOES-16 IMAGERY DOWNWIND OF LAKE MANITOBA.
MULTI-LAKE BANDING IS POSSIBLE OVER THE MANY INLAND LAKES WHILE
THE STRATUS LAYER REMAINS IN PLACE. THEREAFTER, CONFIDENCE IN SNOW
SHOWERS DECREASES RAPIDLY. PORTIONS OF THE BAYFIELD PENINSULA AND
NORTHERN IRON COUNTY MAY CONTINUE TO SEE LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS
INTO THE AFTERNOON BEFORE DRY AIR ADVECTION BEGINS TO LIMIT THE
LES POTENTIAL. TEMPERATURES TODAY WILL REMAIN WELL BELOW NORMAL
FOR MIDDLE OCTOBER WITH READINGS IN THE LOW 30S IN THE NORTHEAST
PORTIONS OF THE ARROWHEAD TO THE LOW 40S IN CENTRAL MINNESOTA.
CLEAR SKIES ARE EXPECTED TONIGHT WITH WINDS DIMINISHING BEFORE
SUNSET. LOOK FOR OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE LOW 20S IN THE NORTHEAST
PORTIONS OF THE ARROWHEAD TO THE LOW 30S IN CENTRAL MINNESOTA.
THURSDAY LOOKS TO BE SUNNY AND MUCH WARMER. STRONG WARM AIR
ADVECTION AT 925 AND 850 MB ON WEST TO SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL BOOST
TEMPERATURES ABOVE NORMAL. HIGHS ARE FORECAST IN THE LOW 60S FROM
THE BRAINERD LAKES TO INTERNATIONAL FALLS WITH UPPER 50S FARTHER
EAST. MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES ARE EXPECTED. SURFACE WINDS WILL LIKELY
BE GUSTY ONCE AGAIN, BUT WILL TURN SOUTHWESTERLY OVERNIGHT.
LONG TERM
(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 247 AM CDT WED OCT 17 2018
THE OVERALL EXTENDED FORECAST CONTINUES TO SHOW A FEW ROUNDS OF
PRECIPITATION, MAINLY A RAIN/SNOW MIX, WITH SOME LAKE EFFECT SNOW
ALONG THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF THE PENOKEE RANGE IN NORTHERN
WISCONSIN. TEMPERATURES WILL GENERALLY REMAIN NEAR TO BELOW
SEASONAL AVERAGE.
THURSDAY EVENING WILL START OUT DRY AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE
REMAINS SITUATED OVER THE EAST-CENTRAL UNITED STATES. HOWEVER, A
MID-LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH AND ATTENDANT SURFACE COLD FRONT WILL
ENTER THE REGION, AND BRING SMALL CHANCES FOR RAIN SHOWERS AS A
WARM AIR MASS REMAINS IN PLACE, CHARACTERIZED BY 925 MB
TEMPERATURES IN THE 5 TO 10 DEGREE C RANGE. FRIDAY MORNING LOWS
WILL BE ABOVE FREEZING ACROSS THE NORTHLAND, IN THE LOWER TO
MIDDLE 40S. A FEW ADDITIONAL MID-LEVEL IMPULSES WILL KEEP CHANCES
OF PRECIPITATION IN THE PICTURE FRIDAY EVENING AND SATURDAY
MORNING DUE TO A PUSH OF COLD AIR ADVECTION ON NORTHWESTERLY
CYCLONIC FLOW. THIS COLD AIR ADVECTION, CHARACTERIZED BY 850 MB
TEMPERATURES IN THE -7 TO -10 DEGREE C RANGE, SHOULD SUPPORT SOME
LAKE EFFECT SNOW ALONG THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF THE PENOKEE RANGE
IN NORTHERN WISCONSIN, WHERE UP TO A FEW INCHES OF SNOWFALL IS
POSSIBLE. HIGH TEMPERATURES ON SATURDAY WILL RETURN TO WELL BELOW
SEASONAL AVERAGES, INTO THE MIDDLE 30S NORTH TO THE UPPER 30S AND
LOWER 40S SOUTH.
FROM SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY, THE GENERAL THEME WILL BE DRIER
CONDITIONS AS LARGE-SCALE RIDGING REDEVELOPS OVER THE
INTERMOUNTAIN WEST STATES. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL ALLOW
SOUTHERLY FLOW AND INCREASED WARM AIR ADVECTION TO KEEP THE HIGH
TEMPERATURES IN THE 40S AND LOWER 50S THROUGH MID-WEEK. A FEW MID-
LEVEL WAVES COULD BRING SMALL CHANCES OF PRECIPITATION, MAINLY
MONDAY AFTERNOON AND AGAIN TUESDAY MORNING, BUT THERE APPEARS TO
BE A LACK OF DEEP MOISTURE TO SUPPORT WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION.
LOW TEMPERATURES WILL STILL DIP TO NEAR OR BELOW FREEZING FOR
MONDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING.
AVIATION
(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z THURSDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 634 AM CDT WED OCT 17 2018
SOME LINGERING MVFR CEILINGS WILL QUICKLY DIMINISH THIS MORNING,
LEADING TO VFR CONDITIONS FOR THE REST OF THE TAF PERIOD.
NORTHWEST WINDS WILL REMAIN GUSTY TODAY, WITH GUSTS BETWEEN 15 TO
25 KNOTS THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN BUILD
INTO THE REGION LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING, WHICH WILL BRING
CLEAR SKIES THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. SOME LOW-LEVEL WIND
SHEAR IS ANTICIPATED AT KHIB AND KINL AS STRONGER WINDS DEVELOP
BETWEEN 1 TO 2 KFT. THE LOW-LEVEL WIND SHEAR WILL LIKELY LAST OVER
THESE AREAS THROUGH MUCH OF THURSDAY MORNING.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
DLH 39 30 58 45 / 10 0 0 20
INL 36 28 61 44 / 10 0 0 10
BRD 43 32 64 46 / 0 0 0 20
HYR 41 29 60 45 / 10 0 0 10
ASX 41 29 61 47 / 20 0 0 10
DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
WI...NONE.
MN...NONE.
LS...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM CDT THIS MORNING FOR LSZ140>146.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 1 PM CDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR LSZ121-
147-148.
UPDATE...JTS
SHORT TERM...HUYCK
LONG TERM...JTS
AVIATION...JTS
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.
Main Text Page