572
FXUS63 KDLH 011042
AFDDLH
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DULUTH MN
542 AM CDT WED APR 1 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- A LARGE WINTER SYSTEM WILL IMPACT THE REGION THIS EVENING
THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT WITH HEAVY, WET SNOW, FREEZING RAIN,
AND MIXED PRECIPITATION ALL POSSIBLE. STRONG NORTHEASTERLY
WINDS OFF LAKE SUPERIOR WILL LEAD TO BLOWING SNOW AND GALES ON
THE LAKE.
- A SECOND STORM WILL IMPACT THE REGION FOR FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY
WITH ANOTHER ROUND OF HEAVY, WET SNOW, FREEZING RAIN, AND
MIXED PRECIPITATION ALL POSSIBLE. TRAVEL IMPACTS ARE LIKELY
WITH BOTH SYSTEMS.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 316 AM CDT WED APR 1 2026
CURRENT CONDITIONS/TODAY:
LARGELY QUIET CONDITIONS TODAY. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE RETREATS
FARTHER EAST ACROSS ONTARIO WITH MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES BECOMING
COMPLETELY OVERCAST. NORTHEASTERLY FLOW ALONG LAKE SUPERIOR HAS LED
TO SOME LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS DEVELOPING OVER THE NORTH SHORE AND
ARE PROJECTED TO SLIDE DOWN INTO THE TWIN PORTS LATER THIS
MORNING. A LIGHT DUSTING OF SNOW WILL BE POSSIBLE BUT FLOW WILL
SWITCH TO OUT OF THE EAST BY LATE MORNING WITH DRIER AIR MOVING
OVER THE AREA SHUTTING DOWN THE PROCESS. LATER THIS AFTERNOON,
SOME OF THE HIGH RES GUIDANCE IS SUGGESTING SOME SNOW SHOWERS.
HOWEVER, SOUNDINGS SHOW A PRETTY SIGNIFICANT DRY SLOT UP THROUGH
600 MB SO WE HAVE OPTED TO PULL BACK POPS QUITE A BIT AND DELAY
THE MAIN ONSET OF THE WINTER STORM INTO THE EVENING HOURS.
1ST WINTER STORM:
MOISTURE PROFILES START TO SATURATE THROUGH THE COLUMN AS AN UPPER
LEVEL WAVE MOVES OFF THE ROCKIES WEDNESDAY EVENING. SNOW WILL
GRADUALLY SPREAD SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS.
THE SURFACE LOW THAT DEVELOPS IS OFFSET TO THE SOUTHEAST OF THE
UPPER LEVEL WAVE LEADING TO MORE DIFFUSE SYNOPTIC FORCING WHICH
WILL WORK AGAINST PRODUCING HEAVIER SNOWFALL RATES. TIMING OF THE
OVERALL SYSTEM HAS BEEN DELAYED A BIT DUE TO BOTH THE LOW TRACK AND
THE AMOUNT OF DRY AIR IN PLACE ON WEDNESDAY. OUR HEAVIEST SNOWFALL
RATES WILL ARRIVE DURING THE DAYTIME HOURS ON THURSDAY AS THE
SURFACE LOW TRACKS ACROSS IA AND INTO WI. THIS CURRENT TRACK WILL
ALSO LEAD TO A WARM NOSE MOVING ACROSS NW WI REDUCING SNOW TOTALS
AND INCREASING SOME ICE PRODUCTION. MOST OF THE REGION HAS BEEN
UPGRADED TO A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY. WHILE MODELED SNOWFALL TOTALS
ARE FLIRTING WITH WARNING LEVEL SNOW AMOUNTS, THESE DO NOT TAKE INTO
ACCOUNT THE HIGHER SUN ANGLE FOR APRIL AND THE COMPACTION WE CAN
EXPECT FROM SNOWFALL ON WARMER SURFACES. AS SUCH WE EXPECT
MEASURABLE AMOUNTS OF SNOW TO BE CLOSER TO THE ADVISORY AMOUNTS. THE
EXCEPTION TO THIS IS ALONG THE NORTH SHORE WHERE STRONG WINDS OFF OF
LAKE SUPERIOR WILL BOOST SNOWFALL RATES A BIT MORE AND MAY LEAD TO
SOME REDUCED VISIBILITIES, SO A WINTER STORM WARNING WAS ISSUED
INSTEAD. PINE IS THE OTHER PROBLEM COUNTY, WITH THE PROMINENT WARM
NOSE GOING OVER THAT SECTOR OF THE STATE THERE IS CONCERN FOR SOME
GREATER ICE ACCUMULATIONS, CONFIDENCE IS NOT HIGH ENOUGH TO GO WITH
AN ICE STORM WARNING BUT A WINTER STORM WARNING SEEMED APPROPRIATE
GIVEN THE MIXED PRECIPITATION EXPECTED. SOME OF THESE COUNTIES MAY
NEED TO BE UPGRADED DEPENDING ON HOW THE LOW TRACK TRENDS, BUT GIVEN
OUR HIGH TEMPERATURES FOR THE DAY WILL BE FLIRTING WITH ABOVE
FREEZING AND THAT WE DON'T HAVE THE STRONGEST FORCING IN PLACE TO
LEAD TO SIGNIFICANT SNOWFALL RATES, AN ADVISORY SEEMS THE MOST
APPROPRIATE AT THIS JUNCTURE.
2ND WINTER STORM:
OUR FIRST SYSTEM DEPARTS FRIDAY MORNING WITH A BRIEF REPRIEVE IN THE
ACTION BEFORE THE 2ND SYSTEM STARTS TO BRING ANOTHER ROUND OF
PRECIPITATION FRIDAY AFTERNOON. NOT QUITE A RINSE AND REPEAT OF THE
FIRST SYSTEM, BUT THERE ARE QUITE A LOT SIMILARITIES ONCE AGAIN. WITH
SNOW BEING FAVORED FOR MN AND A WARM NOSE IMPACTING MOST OF NW WI.
ONE OF THE MAJOR DIFFERENCES IS THAT THIS SECOND SYSTEM LOOKS TO BE
A STRONGER UPPER LEVEL LOW AS OPPOSED TO AN OPEN WAVE WHICH IS
LEADING TO INCREASED SYNOPTIC FORCING. THESE BETTER DYNAMICS LOOK TO
ARRIVE IN THE OVERNIGHT HOURS AND PERSIST THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS
OF SATURDAY WHICH WILL FAVOR BETTER SNOWFALL GENERATION AS SURFACE
TEMPERATURES WILL BE BELOW FREEZING. THIS SET UP ALSO LOOKS TO
HAVE A TROWAL SET UP WHICH MAY LEAD TO SOME BANDED SNOW DEVELOPING
ACROSS THE RED RIVER VALLEY AND INTO NORTHERN MN. SNOW PROBABILITIES
HAVE SHIFTED SLIGHTLY TO THE NORTHWEST WITH THIS FORECAST
PACKAGE AND HAVE INCREASED. STILL LOOKING AT HIGH PROBABILITY OF
4" ACROSS OUR NORTHWEST WITH A TRANSITION ZONE OF A WINTRY MIX
THROUGH THE TWIN PORTS AND THE BRAINERD LAKES REGION. OVER IN NW
WI WARM AIR ALOFT WITH FREEZING OVERNIGHT TEMPERATURES ARE
LOOKING MORE FAVORABLE FOR ICE ACCUMULATIONS GREATER THAN 0.10"
BY THE AFTERNOON NW WI WILL LARGELY BE ABOVE FREEZING WITH RAIN
BEING FAVORED FOR A TIME, BUT AS THE SYSTEM PULLS OFF TO THE
EAST COLD AIR OVERTAKES THE WHOLE REGION WITH SNOW LINGERING
INTO SATURDAY NIGHT.
SUNDAY - MONDAY:
ANOTHER BRIEF LULL IN THE ACTION FOR SUNDAY WITH HIGHS RECOVERING
BACK INTO THE 40S. BUT THE FUN DOESN'T STOP THERE. A QUICK MOVING
CLIPPER SLIDES IN FROM THE NORTH ON MONDAY AND WILL PROVIDE ANOTHER
QUICK BURST OF SNOW. NOT NEARLY AS IMPACTFUL AS THESE COLORADO LOWS,
BUT MAY GIVE THE REGION A HALF INCH OF SNOW WITH THE ARROWHEAD
SEEING AROUND AN INCH.
AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY/
ISSUED AT 541 AM CDT WED APR 1 2026
MVFR CEILINGS ARE HAVE A SOUTHWEST FLOW THIS MORNING IMPACTING DLH
AND HYR. NOT CONFIDENT THAT THIS FLOW WILL MAKE IT ALL THE WAY TO
BRD WITH CURRENTLY PROBABILITIES AROUND 30% FOR THEM DROPPING TO MVFR
BRIEFLY LATER THIS MORNING. STREAMING OFF OF THE LAKE WE ALSO HAVE
SOME LIGHT SNOW THAT IS IMPACTING DLH THIS MORNING. NOT EXPECTING
THIS TO LINGER LONG WITH WINDS TURNING MORE EASTERLY LATER THIS
MORNING. THIS AFTERNOON MAY SEE SOME SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS AGAIN,
BUT THERE IS A LOT OF DRY AIR TO OVERCOME IN ORDER FOR THIS TO PLAY
OUT. THE BETTER CHANCES WILL ARRIVE LATE TONIGHT INTO TOMORROW AS A
LOW PRESSURE BEGINS TO MOVE FROM IA INTO WI.
MARINE /FOR NEARSHORE WATERS OF WESTERN LAKE SUPERIOR/
ISSUED AT 316 AM CDT WED APR 1 2026
QUITE AN ACTIVE PATTERN GOING FORWARD WITH NORTHEAST WINDS
INCREASING THIS AFTERNOON WARRANTING SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES.
OVERNIGHT A LARGE SYSTEM WILL START TO IMPACT THE UPPER MIDWEST
LEADING TO A WINTRY MIX AND WIND FURTHER INCREASING TO GALES
THURSDAY MORNING. GALES ONLY BRIEFLY DIMINISH FRIDAY MORNING, BUT
ANOTHER LARGE SYSTEM IS RIGHT ON THE HEELS OF THE FIRST BRINING MORE
MESSY WEATHER TO LAKE SUPERIOR. THIS WILL ALSO INDUCE MORE GALES
FRIDAY EVENING, PRIMARILY ON THE NORTH SHORE.
FOR THE OPEN WATER DISCUSSION, REFER TO THE NWS MARQUETTE AREA
FORECAST DISCUSSION AT WEATHER.GOV/MQT.
DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MN...WINTER STORM WARNING FROM 1 AM THURSDAY TO 7 AM CDT FRIDAY FOR
MNZ020-021.
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 1 AM THURSDAY TO 7 AM CDT FRIDAY
FOR MNZ010>012-018-019-026-037-038.
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 7 PM THIS EVENING TO 1 AM CDT
FRIDAY FOR MNZ025-033>036.
WI...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 1 AM THURSDAY TO 7 AM CDT FRIDAY
FOR WIZ001>004.
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 1 AM THURSDAY TO 1 AM CDT FRIDAY
FOR WIZ006>008.
WINTER STORM WARNING FROM 1 AM TO 7 PM CDT THURSDAY FOR WIZ009.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 4 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 7 AM CDT
THURSDAY FOR LSZ140>142.
GALE WARNING FROM 7 AM THURSDAY TO 7 AM CDT FRIDAY FOR LSZ140.
GALE WARNING FROM 7 AM THURSDAY TO 1 AM CDT FRIDAY FOR
LSZ141>147-150.
WINTER STORM WARNING FROM 1 AM THURSDAY TO 7 AM CDT FRIDAY FOR
LSZ142.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 10 AM THIS MORNING TO 7 AM CDT
THURSDAY FOR LSZ143>146-150.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 1 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 7 AM CDT
THURSDAY FOR LSZ147.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 1 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 4 AM CDT
FRIDAY FOR LSZ148.
DISCUSSION...BRITT
AVIATION...BRITT
MARINE...BRITT
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