204  
FXUS63 KDLH 281151  
AFDDLH  
 
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION  
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DULUTH MN  
551 AM CST MON NOV 28 2022  
   
DISCUSSION
 
(TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY)  
ISSUED AT 417 AM CST MON NOV 28 2022  
 
SUMMARY: A WINTRY MIX OF FREEZING DRIZZLE AND POSSIBLY SNOW IS  
EXPECTED THIS MORNING IN THE FAR EASTERN ARROWHEAD. AN APPROACHING  
QUICK BOUT OF SNOWFALL IS LIKELY FIRST IN NORTH-CENTRAL MINNESOTA  
LATE THIS MORNING AND SPREADING NORTHEASTWARD TO THE MINNESOTA  
BORDERLANDS BY MID-AFTERNOON. THE PRIMARY FORECAST CONCERN REMAINS  
THE INCOMING WINTER STORM WHICH COULD BRING PLOWABLE SNOWFALL TO  
MUCH OF THE INTERIOR PARTS OF NORTHWEST WISCONSIN. THE HIGHEST  
AMOUNTS REMAIN EXPECTED FROM TUESDAY MORNING TO TUESDAY LATE  
EVENING IN ASHLAND AND IRON COUNTIES. A WINTER STORM WATCH REMAINS  
IN EFFECT FOR ALL OF NORTHWEST WISCONSIN, EXCEPT DOUGLAS COUNTY.  
SOUTH SHORE LAKE EFFECT SNOW IS EXPECTED TO WRAP-UP LATER  
WEDNESDAY. A COLDER AIR MASS SETS UP WEDNESDAY ONWARD AND IS  
EXPECTED TO BRING SINGLE DIGIT LOW TEMPERATURES WEDNESDAY NIGHT  
AND INTO NEXT WEEKEND. THE NEXT CHANCE OF SYSTEM SNOW RETURNS  
FRIDAY AND INTO SATURDAY.  
 
A STACKED, DEEP LOW PRESSURE CURRENTLY SEEN ON SATELLITE IMAGERY  
AS CENTERED IN SOUTHERN SASKATCHEWAN WILL BE THE PRIMARY INFLUENCE  
ON WEATHER PATTERNS IN THE NORTHLAND TODAY AND TUESDAY, ALONG WITH  
A SOON-TO-BE DEEPENING SURFACE LOW PRESSURE FROM THE U.S. ROCKIES.  
 
SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW IS ONGOING OVER LAKE SUPERIOR THIS MORNING AND  
IS HELPING TO CREATE A LAYER OF LOW STRATUS OVER MUCH OF  
NORTHEASTERN MINNESOTA. WITH SURFACE TEMPERATURES AWAY FROM THE  
IMMEDIATE SHORELINES GENERALLY AT OR BELOW FREEZING AND THERMAL  
PROFILES NEAR-SATURATED TO -6 C (PER FORECAST MODEL SOUNDINGS),  
THERE COULD BE A ROUND OF FREEZING DRIZZLE IN THIS EASTERN SECTION  
OF THE ARROWHEAD; SO THESE MENTIONS REMAIN IN THE WEATHER GRIDS  
THROUGH THIS MORNING. AS A WARM FRONT GRADUALLY APPROACHES FROM  
THE WEST BY LATE MORNING THOUGH, THE BEST CHANCES OF DRIZZLE SHIFT  
NORTHWARD ALONG THE NORTH SHORE AND GRADUALLY EXIT INTO ONTARIO  
BY MID-DAY.  
 
THAT APPROACHING WARM FRONT IS PROGGED TO HAVE AN ASSOCIATED AREA  
OF FGEN WHICH WILL INTERACT WITH AN ADVECTED FAIRLY MOIST AIR MASS  
OVER NORTH-CENTRAL MINNESOTA FIRST LATE THIS MORNING. HIGH RES  
MODEL GUIDANCE SHOWS PRECIP AS SNOWFALL BEGINNING AROUND 9-11 AM  
THIS MORNING NEAR THE GREATER CASS/CROW WING/SOUTHERN ITASCA  
COUNTY AREA AND LIFTING NORTH-NORTHEASTWARD FAIRLY QUICKLY. AN  
INCH OF SNOWFALL IS POSSIBLE FROM THIS BAND MOVING INTO NORTHEAST  
MINNESOTA AND COULD RESULT IN QUICKLY DECREASING VISIBILITY ON  
ROADWAYS WHEN IT PASSES OVERHEAD. PROGS KEEP THIS BAND LIFTING  
INTO THE ARROWHEAD WHERE THE BEST CHANCE AT UP TO A COUPLE OF  
INCHES ARE MID-AFTERNOON. SHORT-TERM POP UPDATES ARE LIKELY GOING  
TO BE REQUIRED TODAY BASED ON HOW QUICKLY THIS SYSTEM MOVES  
NORTHEASTWARD OR IF IT LINGERS A BIT LONGER IN ONE LOCATION.  
 
AFTER THE WARM FRONT PASSES OVER THE NORTHLAND LATER THIS EVENING,  
SNOWFALL IN THE MN BORDERLANDS SHOULD END TOWARDS MIDNIGHT.  
 
A COLORADO LOW BEGINS TO FORM OVER THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS WHILE  
THIS WARM FRONT OVER OUR REGION EXITS INTO ONTARIO. THAT SURFACE  
LOW IN THE PLAINS THEN TRACKS INTO THE MID-MISSISSIPPI VALLEY BY  
TUESDAY MORNING. IN THE MEANTIME, A COLD FRONT TAKES FORM OVER  
EAST-CENTRAL MINNESOTA AND INTO NORTHWEST WISCONSIN TUESDAY  
MORNING. THIS DYNAMIC SETUP WILL PROMOTE QUICKLY INCREASING  
CHANCES OF SNOWFALL STARTING EARLY TUESDAY MORNING IN NORTHWEST  
WISCONSIN WHERE JUST ENOUGH COLDER AIR GETS ADVECTED LATE MONDAY  
NIGHT THANKS TO THE POSITION OF THAT CANADIAN LOW. SNOW TO LIQUID  
RATIOS ARE GOING TO REMAIN FAIRLY LOW (DOWN TO 7:1) AT FIRST IN  
PRICE AND SAWYER COUNTIES AT LEAST THROUGH MID-DAY TUESDAY AS THERE  
WILL BE A SURFACE AND LOW-LEVEL BOUNDARY IN THIS GENERAL AREA OF THE  
COLDER WESTERLY AIR AND WARMER SOUTHERLY AIR TRANSPORTED UP AHEAD OF  
THE SURFACE LOW. SO, THE MAIN THOUGHT AT THIS POINT IS PREDOMINANTLY  
SNOW IN PRICE AND EASTERN SAWYER COUNTIES, MIXED POTENTIALLY WITH  
SOME RAIN, WHILE MODERATE TO LOCALLY HEAVY SNOW OCCURS FURTHER NORTH  
AND WESTWARD IN NORTHWEST WISCONSIN. MID-RANGE GLOBAL ENSEMBLE  
GUIDANCE REMAINS VARIED ON THE SCALE OF TENS-OF-MILES FOR THE  
PLACEMENT OF THE HEAVIEST QPF, BUT HIGH ENOUGH FOR IT TO BE MAINLY  
OUT OF EAST-CENTRAL MINNESOTA SO PINE COUNTY WAS DROPPED FROM THE  
WINTER STORM WATCH. MOST GUIDANCE ALSO SHOWS THE MAXIMIZED  
QPF/FORCING/COLDEST AIR MASS ALOFT ON TUESDAY MORNING TO EVENING  
SOUTHEAST OF A LINE FROM WESTERN BURNETT TO NORTHERN BAYFIELD  
COUNTIES. WHILE THIS SET UP COULD STILL BRING A FEW INCHES OF  
PLOWABLE SNOWFALL TO SOUTHERN DOUGLAS COUNTY, THIS ZONE WAS ALSO  
DROPPED FROM THE WATCH FOR THIS INCREASED CONFIDENCE ON HIGHLIGHTING  
THE ZONES OF HIGHEST IMPACT INTO THE INTERIOR AND MORE EASTERN PARTS  
OF NORTHWEST WISCONSIN. THERE REMAINS A 40-70% CHANCE OF RECEIVING  
AT LEAST 4 INCHES OF SNOW FROM THIS EVENT IN THE WATCH AREA, WHILE  
SAWYER, NORTHERN PRICE, ASHLAND AND IRON COUNTIES HAVE A 40-60%  
CHANCE OF SEEING GREATER THAN 6" OF SNOW. FURTHER TIMING REFINEMENTS  
ON QPF GUIDANCE ALLOWED US TO SHORTEN THE WATCH TO NOW END AT  
MIDNIGHT TUESDAY NIGHT, INSTEAD OF PREVIOUSLY RUNNING UNTIL EARLY  
WEDNESDAY MORNING. ALTHOUGH THE WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT THIS  
MORNING, PENDING SIGNIFICANT FORECAST UPDATES TO SNOWFALL OR  
EXPECTED IMPACTS, UPGRADES TO EITHER WINTER WEATHER ADVISORIES OR  
WINTER STORM WARNINGS ARE POSSIBLE IN FUTURE ISSUANCES.  
 
THE MOST IMPACTFUL SYSTEM SNOWFALL ENDS LATE TUESDAY NIGHT AS LAKE  
EFFECT SNOWFALL BEGINS TO TAKE HOLD FOR SOUTH SHORE SNOW BELT  
LOCATIONS. THE DEPARTED SURFACE CO LOW AND THE CANADIAN LOW EVER  
SLOWLY SHIFTING EASTWARD IN NORTHERN ONTARIO ALLOWS FOR DECENT  
COLD AIR ADVECTION INTO THE NORTHLAND FOR MUCH COOLER TEMPERATURES  
STARTING WEDNESDAY. NORTH SHORE DOWNSLOPING WIND LOCATIONS COULD  
SEE NORTHWESTERLY WIND GUSTS TO 40 MPH WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY  
NIGHT. THESE CONDITIONS COULD ALSO LEAD TO BLOWING SNOW FOR THOSE  
LAKE EFFECT SNOW BELTS ALONG THE SOUTH SHORE WHEN COMBINED WITH  
THOSE SHOWERS. INSTABILITY SNOW SHOWERS FROM THE COLD CORE ALOFT  
COULD ALSO RESULT IN CHANCES OF SNOW IN FAR NORTHERN MINNESOTA ON  
WEDNESDAY, BUT SIGNIFICANT ACCUMULATIONS ARE NOT EXPECTED AT THIS  
TIME FOR WEDNESDAY.  
 
THE COLD AIR THAT WAS ADVECTED INTO THE REGION AND A SURFACE TO  
UPPER-LEVEL STACKED RIDGE COULD RESULT IN SINGLE DIGIT LOW  
TEMPERATURES WEDNESDAY NIGHT. GENERALLY DRIER CONDITIONS ON  
THURSDAY AND FRIDAY MORNING GIVE WAY TO THE NEXT CHANCE OF SYSTEM  
SNOW FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND INTO SATURDAY FROM A POSSIBLE WAVE  
PASSING THROUGH SOUTHERN CANADA. OVERNIGHT LOW TEMPERATURES ARE  
PERIODICALLY EXPECTED TO REMAIN COLD IN THE SINGLE DIGITS TO  
NEAR-ZERO INTO NEXT WEEKEND.  
 

 
   
AVIATION
 
(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z TUESDAY MORNING)  
ISSUED AT 538 AM CST MON NOV 28 2022  
 
MVFR CIGS ARE LIMITED MAINLY TO NORTHEASTERN MINNESOTA AS  
SOUTHEASTERLY UPSLOPING FLOW WILL PERSIST TODAY FOR NORTH SHORE  
TERMINALS. A LINE OF ELEVATED LOW-LEVELS WINDS WILL MIX DOWN THIS  
MORNING AND CAUSE A PERIOD OF BREEZY SOUTHEASTERLY WIND GUSTS TO  
25 KTS AT TERMINALS ACROSS THE NORTHLAND TODAY; LOW-LEVEL WIND  
SHEAR CRITERIA CONDITIONS ARE NOT EXPECTED THOUGH. A BAND OF  
MODERATE SNOWFALL IS EXPECTED TO FORM AROUND 15Z NEAR BRD THIS  
MORNING AND SPREAD NORTHEASTWARD TO DLH/HIB/INL AROUND 17-19Z.  
GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO SHOW THE CORE OF THIS SNOWFALL COULD PRODUCE  
A 1-HR PERIOD OF VIS DOWN TO 1/2 MILES (CURRENTLY MOST LIKELY AT  
INL), WITH VIS DOWN TO 1 MILE FURTHER SOUTHEASTWARD TO HIB. WHILE  
LIGHT SNOW COULD OCCUR AT HYR IN THE EARLY AFTERNOON, IMPACTS ARE  
NOT EXPECTED AND CHANCES WERE TOO LOW TO PLACE IN THAT TAF. THE  
BAND LIFTS INTO ONTARIO LATE THIS AFTERNOON, BUT OFF-AND-ON SNOW  
REMAINS LIKELY IN THE MN BORDERLANDS INTO THIS EVENING SO KEPT  
RESTRICTIONS AT INL PAST 00Z TUE. HIGH-RES GUIDANCE SHOWS SHOWERS  
DIMINISHING IN COVERAGE AT ALL TAF SITES BY 03Z TUE. WINDS SHIFT  
SOUTHWESTERLY THIS EVENING, BUT REMAIN LESS THAN 5 KTS OUT AHEAD  
OF THE NEXT ROUND OF SNOWFALL MOVING INTO HYR FIRST VERY LATE IN  
THIS TAF PERIOD. PLAN FOR MUCH OF NORTHWESTERN WISCONSIN TO BE  
UNDER MODERATE SNOWFALL (POTENTIALLY PRODUCING A WIDE SWATH OF  
VERY LIMITED VIS) STARTING AFTER 12Z TUE AND INTO TUE EVENING.  
 

 
   
MARINE
 
 
ISSUED AT 320 AM CST MON NOV 28 2022  
 
A RIDGE OF HIGHER PRESSURE DEPARTS THE UPPER GREAT LAKES THIS  
MORNING, WHICH HAS BEEN KEEPING GENERALLY NORTHERLY WINDS OVER  
WESTERN LAKE SUPERIOR AROUND OR LESS THAN 15 KNOTS VERY EARLY THIS  
MORNING. AN APPROACHING WARM FRONT FROM A LOW PRESSURE IN SOUTHERN  
CANADA WILL SHIFT WINDS SOUTHEASTERLY BY MID-DAY TODAY. THOSE  
WINDS BECOME GUSTY THIS AFTERNOON AROUND 25 KNOTS AND WILL BUILD  
WAVES FROM SILVER BAY NORTHWARD ALONG THE NORTH SHORE INTO THIS  
EVENING. THE CURRENT SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES COVER THESE HAZARDS  
WELL SO NO HEADLINE CHANGES WERE MADE THIS MORNING. WINDS SHIFT  
SOUTHWESTERLY AND GRADUALLY DECREASE EARLY MONDAY NIGHT OVER  
WESTERN LAKE SUPERIOR AND WAVES RECEDE AROUND GRAND MARAIS  
NORTHWARD LATE MONDAY NIGHT. A COLD FRONT PASSES OVER THE WESTERN  
LAKE TUESDAY MID-DAY AND WILL PRODUCE ANOTHER WIND SHIFT TUESDAY  
AFTERNOON TO NORTHWESTERLY. THESE NORTHWESTERLY WINDS QUICKLY  
BECOME GUSTY INTO TUESDAY EVENING AND WILL LIKELY REQUIRE ANOTHER  
HIGHER-END SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TUESDAY NIGHT. GUSTS COULD  
APPROACH LOW-END GALE FORCE AROUND 35 KNOTS IN THE OUTER APOSTLE  
ISLANDS BY EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING.  
 

 
   
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
 
 
DLH 34 26 29 19 / 60 20 50 20  
INL 33 17 25 17 / 70 30 0 30  
BRD 36 23 26 17 / 30 10 20 10  
HYR 36 26 31 19 / 10 30 90 40  
ASX 38 28 33 22 / 20 30 90 40  
 

 
   
DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
 
 
WI...WINTER STORM WATCH FROM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY EVENING  
FOR WIZ002>004-006>009.  
 
MN...NONE.  
LS...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 2 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO MIDNIGHT CST  
TONIGHT FOR LSZ121-142-146>148-150.  
 
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 1 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 3 AM CST  
TUESDAY FOR LSZ140-141.  
 

 
 

 
 
DISCUSSION...NLY  
AVIATION...NLY  
MARINE...NLY  
 
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