220
FXUS63 KDLH 182343
AFDDLH
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DULUTH MN
543 PM CST FRI JAN 18 2019
SHORT TERM
(THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 318 PM CST FRI JAN 18 2019
ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN IN CONTROL THROUGH TONIGHT AND
SATURDAY, DIPPING FROM CENTRAL MANITOBA SOUTH INTO THE RED RIVER
VALLEY REGION OF THE ND/MN BORDER. THE RESULT WILL BE BITTERLY COLD
WIND CHILLS OVERNIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING, ALONG WITH SOME
LIGHT LAKE EFFECT SNOW ALONG THE SOUTH SHORE OF LAKE SUPERIOR.
LIGHT NORTH TO NORTHWESTERLY WINDS WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE DAY
SATURDAY WITH ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE SITUATED WEST OF THE NORTHLAND.
THESE WINDS, COUPLED WITH VERY COLD TEMPERATURES, WILL LEAD TO
BITTERLY COLD WIND CHILLS OVERNIGHT AND INTO SATURDAY MORNING, WITH
VALUES RANGING FROM -25 TO -40 DEGREES F ACROSS NORTHEAST MINNESOTA.
SOME UNCERTAINTY REGARDING THIS FORECAST REMAINS WITH BOTH THE GFS
AND ECMWF MODELS INDICATING SOME LINGERING HIGH CIRRUS CLOUDS
OVERNIGHT, WHICH COULD ASSIST IN LIMITING RADIATIONAL COOLING
POTENTIAL OVER FAR NORTHERN MINNESOTA FOR THE EARLY PART OF THE
NIGHT. WIND MAGNITUDES OF 3 KNOTS OR LESS SHOULD KEEP WIND CHILLS
WARMER THAN -40 DEGREES F, SO DIDN'T ISSUE A WIND CHILL WARNING,
DESPITE THE POTENTIAL FOR VALUES REACHING THESE THRESHOLDS. INSTEAD,
WENT WITH A WIDESPREAD WIND CHILL ADVISORY ACROSS NORTHEAST
MINNESOTA. ADDITIONALLY, CHANCES OF LIGHT LAKE EFFECT SNOW WILL
PERSIST THROUGH THE DAY SATURDAY DUE TO VERY COLD 850 MB
TEMPERATURES AND 1000-850 MB LAYER WINDS GENERALLY FROM THE NORTH OR
NORTHEAST THROUGH THE DAY. MODEL SOUNDINGS SHOW THE THERMAL PROFILE
AND THE AMOUNT OF MOISTURE AVAILABLE TO NOT BE IDEAL FOR HEAVY SNOW,
PARTICULARLY WITH ICE CRYSTAL GROWTH IN TEMPERATURES COLDER THAN THE
DENDRITIC GROWTH LAYER, SO NOT THINKING TOO MUCH IN TERMS OF SNOW
ACCUMULATION. STILL, THINKING THAT SNOW ACCUMULATION THROUGH SUNDAY
MORNING COULD RANGE BETWEEN 2 TO 5 INCHES ALONG THE HIGHER
ELEVATIONS OF NORTHERN WISCONSIN, WHICH IS A BIT HIGHER COMPARED TO
THE ENSEMBLE MEAN FROM THE SREF PLUMES.
LONG TERM
(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 318 PM CST FRI JAN 18 2019
CONTINUED COLD SATURDAY NIGHT, THEN TEMPERATURES WARM UP FOR
SUNDAY INTO NEXT WEEK. A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL MOVE THROUGH
THE REGION MONDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH TUESDAY AND WILL BRING
WIDESPREAD SNOW TO THE NORTHLAND.
ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE WILL GRADUALLY MOVE EASTWARD OUT OF ONTARIO
SUNDAY. WITH THE CENTER OF THE HIGH JUST ACROSS THE BORDER OVER
NORTHWEST ONTARIO, THINK WE'LL SEE EFFICIENT RADIATIONAL COOLING.
LOW TEMPERATURES SUNDAY MORNING WILL DIP INTO THE TEENS TO 20S
BELOW ZERO. A FEW READINGS NEAR -30 ARE POSSIBLE NEAR INL AND
ALONG THE INTERNATIONAL BORDER. TEMPERATURES BEGIN TO WARM SUNDAY
AS SOUTHERLY FLOW ALOFT DEVELOPS IN RESPONSE TO A SHORTWAVE
TROUGH MOVING SOUTHEASTWARD ACROSS MINNESOTA. HIGHS SUNDAY WILL
BE NEAR ZERO NORTH AND AROUND 10 DEGREES OVER NORTHWEST WISCONSIN.
WARM AIR ADVECTION CONTINUES SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY. BY MONDAY
AFTERNOON, A DEVELOPING AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL SLIDE INTO THE
CENTRAL PLAINS WITH AN INVERTED TROUGH EXTENDING NORTH INTO THE
UPPER MIDWEST. THE SURFACE LOW WILL PUSH EASTWARD ACROSS KANSAS
AND THEN MAKE A LEFT TURN AT TOPEKA TO HEAD NORTHEAST ACROSS
SOUTHERN WISCONSIN INTO NORTHERN LOWER MICHIGAN BY TUESDAY
EVENING. THE INVERTED TROUGH WILL MOVE EASTWARD AS THE LOW LIFTS
NORTHEAST. HEIGHT FALLS AND ISENTROPIC FORCING FOR ASCENT WILL
BRING ACCUMULATING SNOW TO THE NORTHLAND FROM LATE MONDAY
AFTERNOON THROUGH TUESDAY EVENING. WHILE THERE IS STILL A FAIR
AMOUNT OF SPREAD IN THE DETERMINISTIC SOLUTIONS, IT SEEMS LIKELY
MUCH OF THE NORTHLAND WILL PICK UP AT LEAST AN INCH OF SNOW, WITH
SOME AREAS POTENTIALLY IN THE 3 TO 5 INCH RANGE, ESPECIALLY SOUTH
OF A WALKER TO DULUTH, MN TO HURLEY, WI LINE. WIND SPEEDS OF 15
TO 25 MPH ARE EXPECTED BEHIND THE TROUGH AXIS WHICH MAY RESULT IN
BLOWING AND DRIFTING SNOW.
ANOTHER SURGE OF ARCTIC AIR WILL FOLLOW THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
FOR MID-WEEK AND BEYOND. THE INITIAL SURGE OF COLD AIR WON'T BE
AS DRASTIC AS THE BOUT WE'RE CURRENTLY UNDER WITH HIGHS IN THE
SINGLE DIGITS AND TEENS WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY AND OVERNIGHT LOWS
IN THE MID SINGLE DIGITS ABOVE ZERO TO NEAR 10 BELOW ZERO.
AVIATION
(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SATURDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 543 PM CST FRI JAN 18 2019
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD FURTHER INTO THE REGION TONIGHT AND MUCH
OF THE MID AND HIGH CLOUDS WILL DECREASE FROM NORTH TO SOUTH.
COLD NORTHERLY WINDS OVER LAKE SUPERIOR WILL PRODUCE LAKE EFFECT
SNOW AND MVFR CEILINGS. THE WIND WAS NORTHEAST IN SPOTS AND SOME
OF THE MVFR CEILINGS WERE AS FAR WEST AT KMZH. AS THE WIND BACKS
LATE TONIGHT THE MVFR CEILINGS WILL MOVE A BIT FURTHER EAST.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
DLH -18 1 -19 7 / 0 0 0 10
INL -29 -6 -32 0 / 0 0 0 0
BRD -17 2 -18 7 / 0 0 10 10
HYR -5 9 -9 11 / 0 0 0 0
ASX 0 9 -6 11 / 60 50 40 30
DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
WI...NONE.
MN...WIND CHILL ADVISORY UNTIL NOON CST SATURDAY FOR MNZ025-033>038.
WIND CHILL ADVISORY UNTIL NOON CST SATURDAY FOR MNZ010>012-
018>021-026.
LS...NONE.
SHORT TERM...JTS
LONG TERM...HUYCK
AVIATION...MELDE
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