859
FXUS63 KDLH 291051
AFDDLH
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DULUTH MN
551 AM CDT WED APR 29 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- SCATTERED CHANCES FOR SOME RAIN/SNOW THIS AFTERNOON 20-30%.
MINIMAL ACCUMULATIONS EXPECTED
- FLOOD ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE NORTH SHORE AND COOK
COUNTY AS SEVERAL RIVERS ARE STILL RUNNING HIGH OR NEAR MINOR
FLOOD STAGES.
- QUIET AND DRIER CONDITIONS THURSDAY THROUGH THE WEEKEND. FIRE WEATHER
CONCERNS MAY BECOME ELEVATED LATE THIS AND INTO THE WEEKEND.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 252 AM CDT WED APR 29 2026
CURRENT CONDITIONS/TODAY:
AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS DROPPING SOUTHEAST OUT OF THE CANADIAN
PRAIRIES THIS MORNING BRINGING A SLIGHT UPTICK IN UPPER LEVEL
MOISTURE. WEAK FORCING WITH THIS FEATURE COULD INSTIGATE SOME LIGHT
RAIN/SNOW WITH THE BETTER CHANCES BEING IN THE AFTERNOON AS WE
GENERATE A SLIGHT BOOST IN LIFT FROM DIURNAL HEATING. BUT EVEN THEN
WE ARE KEEPING POPS ON THE LOWER END NEAR 20-35% AS COLUMN
SATURATION MAY BE DIFFICULT TO ACHIEVE.
THROUGH THE END OF THE WORK WEEK:
THE REST OF THE WORK WEEK LOOKS TO REMAIN UNEVENTFUL. THE UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH DEEPENS INTO AND UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER THE GREAT LAKES
WHICH WILL HELP KEEP US IN NORTHWEST FLOW ALLOWING FOR SLIGHTLY
COOLER TEMPERATURES TO PREVAIL. HIGHS WILL REMAIN IN THE 40S AND 50S
WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS DROPPING TO BELOW FREEZING. SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE WILL HOLD OVER THE REGION SUPPRESSING PRECIPITATION CHANCES.
NOT OVERLY CONCERNED WITH FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS AT THE MOMENT
GIVEN THE RECENT RAINS AND LACK OF WINDS FROM HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE
REGION. WE WILL HAVE TO SEE HOW WELL WE DRY OUT, BUT THE
AFOREMENTIONED LOW PRESSURE HAS POTENTIAL TO RETROGRADE WHICH WOULD
KEEP SOME CLOUDS IN THE FORECAST. THE LATEST TRENDS ARE STARTING TO
FORCE THE UPPER LEVEL LOW TO THE EAST FASTER WHICH COULD LEAD TO A
DECREASE IN CLOUDS FURTHER LOWERING DEWPOINTS FRIDAY AFTERNOON.
THE WEEKEND AND EARLY NEXT WEEK:
SATURDAY REMAINS QUIET WITH HIGH PRESSURE DEPARTING THROUGH THE DAY.
MID LEVELS SHOW SOME WARMING AS FLOW TURNS TO OUT OF THE WEST WHICH
WILL ALLOW FOR TEMPERATURES TO GRADUALLY WARM INTO THE 50S AND 60S.
CLOUD COVER CONTINUES TO REMAIN QUESTIONABLE AS UPPER LEVEL
CLOUDS WILL BE IN THE VICINITY OF THE NORTHERN PLAINS, TOO SOON
TELL IF THEY WILL SPILL OVER INTO THE NORTHLAND. IF WE REMAIN
SUNNY THEN WE COULD SEE A DRY DAY THAT MAY WARRANT SOME FIRE
WEATHER CONCERNS.
THERE IS AN INCREASE IN MODEL VARIANCE AS WE HEAD INTO SUNDAY AND
MONDAY. THE 00Z SUITE OF DETERMINISTIC GUIDANCE IS SHOWING SOME
FLAVOR OF A WEAK COLD FRONT MOVING THROUGH SUNDAY THAT COULD
GENERATE SOME LIGHT SHOWERS. THIS FEATURE IS FOLLOWED BY ANOTHER
MORE PROMINENT COLD FRONT, BUT TIMING AND PLACEMENT REMAIN HIGHLY
CONTESTED AT THIS JUNCTURE. FOR NOW, NBM IS CARRYING POPS OF AROUND
20-30% THROUGH THE PERIODS.
AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY/
ISSUED AT 550 AM CDT WED APR 29 2026
CLOUD COVER IS PROVING MORE TROUBLESOME THIS MORNING THEN ORIGINALLY
ANTICIPATED WITH SATELLITE SHOWING PERSISTENT STRATUS ACROSS THE
INTERNATIONAL BORDER SINKING SOUTH. WITH AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
FORECASTED TO MOVE THROUGH THE NORTHLAND TODAY IMPROVEMENTS IN CLOUD
COVER SEEM UNLIKELY. HOWEVER, CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN VFR.
SOME RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS COULD BE GENERATED IN THE AFTERNOON BUT NO
IMPACTS ARE ANTICIPATED. ADDITIONALLY, THERE WILL BE SOME WIND GUSTS
OUT OF THE NORTHWEST AROUND 18 KTS. WINDS WILL DIMINISH AFTER
SUNSET.
MARINE /FOR NEARSHORE WATERS OF WESTERN LAKE SUPERIOR/
ISSUED AT 252 AM CDT WED APR 29 2026
HIGH PRESSURE PREVAILS THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK WITH WIND SPEEDS
ACROSS THE LAKE REMAINING LESS THAN 10 KTS. A PATTERN CHANGE DOES
NOT ARRIVE TILL LATE SUNDAY INTO MONDAY, BUT AT THIS TIME IT DOES
NOT APPEAR TO BRING ANY HAZARDOUS WEATHER ACROSS WESTERN LAKE
SUPERIOR.
FOR THE OPEN WATER DISCUSSION, REFER TO THE NWS MARQUETTE AREA
FORECAST DISCUSSION AT WEATHER.GOV/MQT.
FIRE WEATHER
ISSUED AT 252 AM CDT WED APR 29 2026
MINIMAL FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS IN THE NEAR TERM. NORTHWEST FLOW WILL
KEEP THE REGION COOL WITH INTERMITTENT CLOUD COVER OVER THE NEXT
SEVERAL DAYS. DIURNAL HEATING WILL LEAD TO SOME SCATTERED RAIN/SNOW
SHOWERS TODAY. MINIMAL ACCUMULATIONS ARE EXPECTED WITH ANY SHOWERS
THAT DO MANAGE TO MATERIALIZE AND WORK THROUGH SOME DRY AIR. WIND
GUSTS WILL BE AROUND 20 MPH IN THE AFTERNOON AND DIMINISH AFTER
SUNSET.
DRIER CONDITIONS LOOK TO BE ON TAP FOR FRIDAY AND SATURDAY WHEN RHS
COULD DROP BELOW 30%. HOWEVER, CLOUD COVER REMAINS A QUESTION
PLACEMENT OF AN UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER THE GREAT LAKES REGION WILL
LARGELY DICTATE HOW WELL WE WILL BE ABLE TO MIX.
SEE THE FIRE WEATHER FORECAST PRODUCT FOR A MORE THOROUGH
BREAKDOWN OF FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS.
DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MN...NONE.
WI...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
DISCUSSION...BRITT
AVIATION...BRITT
MARINE...BRITT
FIRE WEATHER...BRITT
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