542
FXUS63 KDLH 162001
AFDDLH
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DULUTH MN
301 PM CDT THU JUL 16 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- SMOKY CONDITIONS CONTINUE, BUT WILL THIN FOR SOME OF FRIDAY.
THIS WILL ALLOW FOR HOT TEMPERATURES ONCE AGAIN IN OUR
SOUTHERN AREAS.
- TWO ROUNDS OF SHOWERS AND STORMS ARE EXPECTED FRIDAY. SEVERE
WEATHER MOST LIKELY IN THE AFTERNOON/EVENING. A QUARTER TO
HALF INCH OF RAIN POSSIBLE WHERE RAIN FALLS
- SMOKY CONDITIONS RETURN OVER THE WEEKEND AND ANOTHER SYSTEM
WILL MOVE THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH MORE CHANCES FOR
SHOWERS AND STORMS.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 241 PM CDT THU JUL 16 2026
FOR THE REST OF THE DAY, UNSEASONABLY WARM AND SMOKY CONDITIONS
WILL PERSIST ACROSS THE NORTHLAND. THICK WILDFIRE SMOKE WILL
CONTINUE TO LIMIT VISIBILITIES. WHILE PREVIOUS FORECASTS
HIGHLIGHTED GUSTY WINDS OVER LAKE SUPERIOR, OBSERVATIONS SHOW
WINDS HAVE REMAINED UNDER TEN KNOTS. AS A RESULT, THE ACTIVE
BEACH HAZARDS STATEMENT AND SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY HAVE BEEN
CANCELLED. AS WE HEAD INTO TONIGHT, SKIES WILL REMAIN MOSTLY
CLOUDY WITH SMOKE LINGERING.
DURING THE EARLY MORNING ON FRIDAY, WARM AND MOIST AIR MOVING
INTO THE REGION WILL TRIGGER AN INITIAL ROUND OF SHOWERS AND
STORMS. THIS CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY WILL FEATURE MODEST INSTABILITY
OF 1000 TO 1500 J/KG AND WIND SHEAR OF 25 TO 30 KNOTS. DRY LOW-
LEVEL AIR WILL RESTRICT RAINFALL TOTALS TO A TENTH OR TWO OF AN
INCH. THESE MORNING STORMS WILL LIKELY WEAKEN, ALLOWING
SOUTHWEST WINDS TO DEVELOP AND PUSH THE THICKEST SMOKE
NORTHEASTWARD, BRINGING CLEARER SKIES TO SOUTHERN COUNTIES.
THIS WILL LEAD HOT TEMPERATURES TO BUILD ACROSS THE SOUTH,
WHERE HEAT HEADLINES MAY BE NEEDED AS HEAT INDEX VALUES CLIMB
INTO THE 90S AND APPROACH 100. BY LATE AFTERNOON, A COLD FRONT
MOVING SOUTHEASTWARD WILL ERODE THE CAPPING INVERSION ALOFT.
THIS WILL TRIGGER A SECOND, MORE POTENT ROUND OF SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS. POWERED BY SUBSTANTIAL INSTABILITY OF 1500 TO
2500 J/KG AND INTENSE DEEP-LAYER SHEAR OF 40 TO 50 KNOTS, THESE
STORMS WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING LARGE HAIL, DAMAGING WINDS,
AND A TORNADO OR TWO. MORE MOISTURE WILL BE AVAILABLE, YIELDING
RAINFALL TOTALS OF A FEW TENTHS OF AN INCH. UNFORTUNATELY,
THESE BENEFICIAL RAINS WILL TRACK SOUTH AND EAST OF THE ACTIVE
WILDFIRES IN THE BOUNDARY WATERS CANOE AREA WILDERNESS FRIDAY
EVENING.
FOLLOWING THE COLD FRONTS DEPARTURE, HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN,
BRINGING DRY AND SUNNY CONDITIONS FOR SATURDAY. HOWEVER,
POST-FRONTAL NORTHWESTERLY WINDS WILL LIKELY PULL THICK
WILDFIRE SMOKE BACK INTO THE NORTHLAND, WHICH MAY KEEP HIGH
TEMPERATURES COOLER THAN CURRENTLY FORECAST. SUNDAY WILL START
WARM AND MOSTLY SUNNY, WITH TEMPERATURES RISING INTO THE 80S
TO NEAR 90 DEGREES AS WINDS SHIFT BACK TO THE SOUTHWEST.
RELATIVE HUMIDITY LEVELS WILL DROP INTO THE LOWER 30 PERCENT
RANGE, ELEVATING FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS. BY SUNDAY EVENING,
CLOUD COVER WILL INCREASE AHEAD OF OUR NEXT MAJOR WEATHER SYSTEM.
A STRONG COLD FRONT IS PROJECTED TO SWEEP THROUGH THE REGION
LATE SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY, BRINGING A THREAT OF SEVERE
STORMS AND MUCH-NEEDED PRECIPITATION. THE PRIMARY CONCERN WITH
THIS SYSTEM WILL BE A SHARP WIND SHIFT FROM SOUTHWEST TO
NORTHWEST ON MONDAY, WITH WINDS INCREASING TO 30 MILES PER HOUR
AND POTENTIALLY HIGHER AS THE EVENT NEARS. THESE STRONG, GUSTY
WINDS COULD CREATE NEAR-CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS AS THEY
SWEEP ACROSS THE NORTHLAND. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL DROP BACK
INTO THE 70S ON TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY, BRINGING COMFORTABLE,
SEASONABLE WEATHER AND A WELCOME REPRIEVE FROM THE HEAT. DRY AND
CLEAR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO ROUND OUT THE MIDDLE OF THE
WEEK AS HIGH PRESSURE TAKES CONTROL ONCE AGAIN.
AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY/
ISSUED AT 1228 PM CDT THU JUL 16 2026
SMOKE, SMOKE, AND MORE SMOKE. IFR TO LIFR VISIBILITIES WILL
CONTINUE WHERE SMOKE LINGERS FOR THE MAJORITY OF THE TAF PERIOD.
AN AREA OF SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL MOVE THROUGH TONIGHT INTO
FRIDAY ACROSS INL AND POSSIBLY HIB, WHERE VISIBILITIES COULD
IMPROVE WITH RAINFALL FOR A PERIOD. FRIDAY MORNING FLOW WILL
SHIFT OUT OF THE SOUTHWEST AND CLEARING OF SMOKE IS POSSIBLE,
ESPECIALLY AT BRD AND HYR, BUT SMOKE MAY STILL LINGER AT DLH,
HIB, AND INL ACCORDING TO LATEST SMOKE TRAJECTORY MODELS.
MARINE /FOR NEARSHORE WATERS OF WESTERN LAKE SUPERIOR/
ISSUED AT 241 PM CDT THU JUL 16 2026
WINDS OVER WESTERN LAKE SUPERIOR HAVE REMAINED UNDER 10 KNOTS
THIS AFTERNOON. DUE TO THESE LIGHT WINDS, THE ACTIVE SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY AND BEACH HAZARDS STATEMENT HAVE BEEN CANCELLED.
HOWEVER, A DENSE SMOKE ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR ALL
NEARSHORE WATERS UNTIL 10 AM FRIDAY, AS WIDESPREAD WILDFIRE
SMOKE CONTINUES TO REDUCE VISIBILITIES TO 1 TO 3 NAUTICAL MILES.
NORTHEAST WINDS TONIGHT WILL SHIFT TO THE SOUTHWEST ON FRIDAY,
AND SMOKE MAY THIN FOR A GOOD PORTIONS OF THE DAY. SHOWERS AND
STORMS ARE POSSIBLE OVER LAKE SUPERIOR FRIDAY MORNING AND AGAIN
IN THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING. SOME STORMS MAY BE STRONG TO
SEVERE WITH GALE FORCE WINDS AND LARGE HAIL.
FOR THE OPEN WATER DISCUSSION, REFER TO THE NWS MARQUETTE AREA
FORECAST DISCUSSION AT WEATHER.GOV/MQT.
FIRE WEATHER
ISSUED AT 241 PM CDT THU JUL 16 2026
DRY CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THIS AFTERNOON WITH MINIMUM
RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES OF 35 TO 50 PERCENT. STRONGER LAKE
BREEZE WINDS OF 15 TO 20 MILES PER HOUR WILL SHIFT INLAND LATE
THIS AFTERNOON, STRENGTHENING EASTERLY WINDS. WILDFIRE SMOKE
WILL CONTINUE TO LINGER THROUGH TONIGHT. ON FRIDAY, WARM
TEMPERATURES AND SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL BUILD, BUT MINIMUM
RELATIVE HUMIDITY WILL RECOVER TO 40 TO 60 PERCENT AS MOIST AIR
MOVES IN FROM THE SOUTHWEST. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS ARE
EXPECTED ON FRIDAY, WITH A SEVERE THREAT POSSIBLE, ESPECIALLY
IN THE AFTERNOON. ON SUNDAY, RELATIVE HUMIDITY WILL DROP BACK
INTO THE LOW 30 PERCENT RANGE WITH SOUTHWEST WINDS UP TO 15 MPH.
A STRONG COLD FRONT ON MONDAY WILL SHIFT WINDS TO THE NORTHWEST
AND INCREASE WIND SPEEDS TO 30 MILES PER HOUR WITH RELATIVE
HUMIDITY ONCE AGAIN RANGING 35 TO 25 PERCENT, CREATING NEAR-
CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER.
SEE THE FIRE WEATHER FORECAST PRODUCT FOR A MORE THOROUGH
BREAKDOWN OF FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS.
DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MN...NONE.
WI...NONE.
MARINE...DENSE SMOKE ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM CDT FRIDAY FOR
LSZ121-140>148-150. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 PM
CDT THIS EVENING FOR LSZ144- 145.
DISCUSSION...KML
AVIATION...KML
MARINE...KML
FIRE WEATHER...KML
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