745
FXUS63 KDLH 061841 CCA
AFDDLH
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...CORRECTED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DULUTH MN
141 PM CDT WED MAY 6 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- SCATTERED LIGHT SNOW/RAIN SHOWERS CONTINUE TO AFFECT THE
NORTHLAND TODAY. MINIMAL ACCUMULATIONS EXPECTED.
- COLDER THAN AVERAGE TEMPERATURES EXPECTED AGAIN TODAY AND
THURSDAY, AND AGAIN THIS WEEKEND. OVERNIGHT LOW TEMPERATURES
WILL BE IN THE 20S AND LOW 30S THROUGH THE WEEK.
- THERE IS A 20-40 PERCENT CHANCE OF RAIN SHOWERS THURSDAY AND
AGAIN FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY, WITH A 30-50 PERCENT CHANCE OF
RAIN SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY.
SEVERE WEATHER IS NOT EXPECTED. A FEW SNOWFLAKES MAY MIX IN
THURSDAY MORNING.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 1043 AM CDT WED MAY 6 2026
A COOL START TO MAY WILL CONTINUE TO BE THE STORY ACROSS
NORTHEAST MINNESOTA AND NORTHWEST WISCONSIN THE REMAINDER OF
THIS WEEK. UNDER CYCLONIC FLOW ALOFT ASSOCIATED WITH A LONGWAVE
TROUGH AND AN UNSEASONABLY COOL AIRMASS WITH 850MB TEMPERATURE
PERCENTILES NEAR THE BOTTOM OF THE CLIMATOLOGY, HIGH
TEMPERATURES TODAY WILL ONLY CLIMB INTO THE 40S ACROSS THE
NORTHLAND. A FEW RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED WITHIN THE
LOW CLOUD COVER AS WELL. FOR TONIGHT, WIDESPREAD LOW
TEMPERATURES IN THE 20S ARE FORECAST WITH WEAK SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE. DEPENDING ON WHAT LEVEL LEVEL CLOUD COVER REMAINS, A
FEW LOCATIONS COULD (20-30% CHANCE) DROP INTO THE LOWER 20S AND
UPPER TEENS ACROSS NORTHEAST MINNESOTA FOR LOW TEMPERATURES BY
THURSDAY MORNING.
FOR THURSDAY, A STRONGER IMPULSE EMBEDDED IN THE CYCLONIC FLOW
WILL PROPAGATE ACROSS THE REGION, SUPPORTING A 20-30 PERCENT
CHANCE FOR RAIN SHOWERS DURING THE DAY ON THURSDAY. A FEW
SNOWFLAKES MAY MIX IN DURING THE MORNING GIVEN THE COOL START TO
THE DAY.
TEMPERATURES WARM BACK TO NEAR NORMAL ON FRIDAY AS CYCLONIC
FLOW EASES SOME ALOFT AND THE COLDEST LOW LEVEL AIRMASS MOVES
INTO CANADA. FRIDAY COULD HAVE NEAR CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER
CONDITIONS GIVEN DRY CONDITIONS AND LOW RELATIVE HUMIDITY AND
WESTERLY WINDS AROUND 10-15 MPH. WILL COORDINATE WITH FIRE
PARTNERS ON FUEL CONDITIONS AND POTENTIAL FIRE BEHAVIOR.
THE NEXT SHORTWAVE AND RETURN OF A CHILLY MAY AIRMASS ARRIVES
THIS WEEKEND TO CONTINUE MUCH OF THE SAME PATTERN THAT WE HAVE
SEEN SO FAR THIS MONTH ACROSS THE NORTHLAND. THERE IS A 20-30
PERCENT CHANCE OF RAIN SHOWERS FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY
MORNING AS IMPULSES IN CYCLONIC FLOW MOVE ACROSS THE REGION.
LOOKING AHEAD TO NEXT WEEK, THE COOL PATTERN LOOKS TO RELENT
SOME AS THE UPPER LEVEL FLOW PATTERN BECOMES MORE ZONAL. THIS
WOULD SUPPORT A WARM UP TO MORE NORMAL TEMPERATURES NEXT WEEK.
THE NEXT BEST CHANCE FOR PRECIPITATION (30-50% CHANCE) IS
MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY WITH THE ARRIVAL OF A SHORTWAVE AND
PACIFIC MOISTURE. A FEW THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED WITH SOME
BUOYANCY. HOWEVER, SEVERE WEATHER IS NOT EXPECTED.
AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY/
ISSUED AT 104 PM CDT WED MAY 6 2026
STRATUS WITH CLOUD BASES AROUND 3000-4000 FT AGL WILL CONTINUE
ACROSS NORTHEAST MINNESOTA AND NORTHWEST WISCONSIN THIS
AFTERNOON AND INTO THE EVENING. SOME CLEARING IS EXPECTED
OVERNIGHT. A FEW LIGHT RAIN OR SNOW SHOWERS ARE ALSO EXPECTED
THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. VISIBILITY MAY OCCASIONALLY FALL TO
MVFR IN SNOW SHOWERS. NORTHWEST WIND GUSTS OF 17-23KTS WILL
CONTINUE THROUGH SUNSET THIS EVENING.
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED ON THURSDAY WITH SCATTERED RAIN SHOWERS
DEVELOPING THROUGH THE DAY.
MARINE /FOR NEARSHORE WATERS OF WESTERN LAKE SUPERIOR/
ISSUED AT 104 PM CDT WED MAY 6 2026
WEST TO SOUTHWEST WINDS OF 5-10 KTS THIS AFTERNOON, LOCALLY
HIGHER WITH GUSTS OF 15-20 KTS NEAR THE TWIN PORTS AND FROM
GRAND PORTAGE TO GRAND MARAIS. WAVES OF 2-3 FT ARE EXPECTED
FROM GRAND PORTAGE TO GRAND MARAIS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
FOR THURSDAY, WEST TO SOUTHWEST WINDS OF 5-10 KTS FOR MOST
ZONES, THE EXCEPTION BEING SOUTHWEST AT 15-20 KTS FROM TACONITE
HARBOR TO GRAND MARAIS TO GRAND PORTAGE. WAVES ARE EXPECTED TO
BUILD TO 2-4 FEET FROM TACONITE HARBOR TO GRAND PORTAGE AND A
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY MAY BE NEEDED.
FOR THE OPEN WATER DISCUSSION, REFER TO THE NWS MARQUETTE AREA
FORECAST DISCUSSION AT WEATHER.GOV/MQT.
FIRE WEATHER
ISSUED AT 104 PM CDT WED MAY 6 2026
PARTLY SUNNY ON THURSDAY WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE 40S AND
50S. WINDS WILL BE FROM THE WEST-NORTHWEST AROUND 8-10 MPH WITH
GUSTS OF 15-20 MPH. AFTERNOON MINIMUM RELATIVE HUMIDITY IS
EXPECTED TO FALL INTO THE 25-30 PERCENT RANGE FOR MOST OF
NORTHEAST MINNESOTA AND NORTHWEST WISCONSIN. SCATTERED RAIN
SHOWERS ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA ON THURSDAY.
FRIDAY WILL BE WARMER, WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE 50S AND 60S
UNDER MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES. AFTERNOON MINIMUM RELATIVE HUMIDITY
IS EXPECTED TO FALL INTO THE 25-30 PERCENT RANGE FOR MOST OF
NORTHEAST MINNESOTA AND NORTHWEST WISCONSIN. WINDS WILL BE FROM
THE WEST-NORTHWEST AROUND 8-10 MPH WITH GUSTS OF 15-20 MPH.
SEE THE FIRE WEATHER FORECAST PRODUCT FOR A MORE THOROUGH
BREAKDOWN OF FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS.
DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MN...NONE.
WI...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
DISCUSSION...PA
AVIATION...PA
MARINE...PA
FIRE WEATHER...PA
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