355
FXUS63 KDLH 062040
AFDDLH
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DULUTH MN
240 PM CST FRI FEB 6 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- COLD WEATHER TONIGHT WITH TEMPERATURES FALLING AS LOW AS 25
DEGREES BELOW ZERO IN NORTHEAST MINNESOTA.
- A QUICK-MOVING CLIPPER ARRIVES SATURDAY EVENING, BRINGING A
LIGHT DUSTING OF SNOW FOR MOST AND THE POTENTIAL FOR A THIN
GLAZE OF ICE FROM FREEZING DRIZZLE. UP TO AN INCH OR TWO OF
SNOW MAY FALL IN THE ARROWHEAD.
- ANOTHER ROUND OF LIGHT WINTRY PRECIPITATION IS POSSIBLE
SUNDAY NIGHT, ESPECIALLY IN THE ARROWHEAD.
- WARMER TEMPERATURES NEXT WEEK WITH PERIODIC CHANCES FOR LIGHT
SNOW OR MIXED PRECIPITATION.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 238 PM CST FRI FEB 6 2026
THE NORTHLAND IS CURRENTLY SEEING CLEARING SKIES THIS AFTERNOON
AS HIGH PRESSURE BEGINS TO SETTLE IN FROM THE WEST. WHILE NORTH
TO NORTHWEST WINDS REMAIN GUSTY FOR THE NEXT FEW HOURS, THEY
WILL DIMINISH QUICKLY AROUND SUNSET. THIS WILL SET THE STAGE FOR
AN EXCEPTIONALLY COLD NIGHT UNDER MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES.
TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO PLUMMET, ESPECIALLY IN TYPICALLY
COLDER SPOTS LIKE THE IRON RANGE AND THE INTERIOR ARROWHEAD,
WHERE LOWS WILL BOTTOM OUT AROUND 20 AND 25 BELOW ZERO. THIS
FORECAST IS AROUND THE 10TH PERCENTILE OF MODEL GUIDANCE, WHICH
SEEMS APPROPRIATE FOR THE IDEAL RADIATIONAL COOLING NIGHT
EXPECTED. EVEN WITH THAT, WE ARE STILL NOT EXPECTED TO GET COLD
ENOUGH TO WARRANT ANY COLD WEATHER HEADLINES AS VERY LIGHT TO
CALM WINDS SHOULD KEEP WIND CHILLS MINIMAL.
THE COLD SNAP TONIGHT WILL BE SHORT-LIVED AS A WARMING TREND
BEGINS TO TAKE HOLD ON SATURDAY AFTER HIGH PRESSURE DEPARTS TO
THE WEST. WE WILL GET INTO A SOUTHERLY FLOW AND WARM AIR
ADVECTION REGIME, ALLOWING SATURDAY AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES TO
RECOVER QUICKLY INTO THE TEENS ABOVE ZERO. CLOUDS WILL INCREASE
THROUGHOUT THE DAY AS A FAST-MOVING CLIPPER APPROACHES FROM THE
NORTHWEST. THIS SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO BRING A LIGHT DUSTING OF
SNOW TO MUCH OF THE AREA SATURDAY EVENING, WITH THE ARROWHEAD
POTENTIALLY SEEING ONE TO TWO INCHES. THERE IS A CONCERN FOR
LIGHT FREEZING DRIZZLE TO MIX IN WITH THE SNOW, PARTICULARLY FOR
AREAS ALONG ROUGHLY WEST OF THE HIGHWAY 53 CORRIDOR AS WARMER
TEMPERATURES AND ALSO DRIER AIR ALOFT MAY ALLOW FOR LOSS OF ICE
(FAVORING THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME FREEZING DRIZZLE OR LIGHT RAIN
AT TIMES). THIS COULD RESULT IN A LIGHT GLAZE OF ICE ON
UNTREATED SURFACES SATURDAY EVENING. ALL-IN-ALL, IT LOOKS LIKE A
LOW-IMPACT SYSTEM, AND IN GENERAL THE MODELS HAVE BEEN TRENDING
THE MAIN AXIS OF FRONTOGENETICAL PRECIPITATION A LITTLE FURTHER
TO THE NORTHWEST. STILL, WE WILL KEEP AN EYE ON THE POTENTIAL
FOR LIGHT FREEZING DRIZZLE, WHICH WOULD BE MORE LIKELY FURTHER
WEST AND WOULD PROBABLY POSE THE BIGGER (THOUGH STILL MINOR)
IMPACT VERSUS SNOW IF IT HAPPENS.
LOOKING AHEAD TO SUNDAY AND THE EARLY PART OF NEXT WEEK, THE
REGION WILL ENTER A MUCH MILDER PATTERN WITH TEMPERATURES RISING
ABOVE SEASONAL NORMALS. HOWEVER, THIS TRANSITION REMAINS
ACTIVE. ANOTHER QUICK-HITTING CLIPPER ON SUNDAY NIGHT COULD
BRING ANOTHER CHANCE FOR LIGHT SNOW, PERHAPS MIXED WITH LIGHT
FREEZING DRIZZLE, MAINLY ACROSS THE ARROWHEAD. BY MONDAY AND
TUESDAY, MANY LOCATIONS COULD SEE AFTERNOON HIGHS CLIMBING INTO
THE 30S OR POSSIBLY EVEN LOW 40S, LEADING TO A BIT OF A MID-
WINTER THAW. A WAVY WESTERLY FLOW PATTERN MAY KEEP THE CLIPPERS
COMING NEXT WEEK AT TIMES, BUT MAJOR STORM SYSTEMS ARE LOOKING
UNLIKELY.
AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY/
ISSUED AT 1135 AM CST FRI FEB 6 2026
SKIES CONTINUE TO CLEAR THIS AFTERNOON AND HIGH PRESSURE IS
EXPECTED TO MOVE IN TONIGHT. A FEW CLOUDS THIS AFTERNOON, BUT
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED. BREEZY NORTH TO NORTHWEST WINDS ARE
EXPECTED TO PERSIST UNTIL AROUND OR JUST AFTER SUNSET, BUT THEN
WINDS SHOULD DECREASE CLOSE TO CALM SHORTLY AFTER AND REMAIN
THAT WAY THROUGH TONIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE MOVES OUT TO THE EAST
SATURDAY MORNING AND INCREASING HIGH CLOUDS ARE EXPECTED FROM
THE WEST. VFR CONDITIONS ARE STILL EXPECTED TO PREVAIL THROUGH
THIS FORECAST PERIOD.
MARINE /FOR NEARSHORE WATERS OF WESTERN LAKE SUPERIOR/
ISSUED AT 238 PM CST FRI FEB 6 2026
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES REMAIN IN EFFECT FOR THE NEARSHORE WATERS
OF WESTERN LAKE SUPERIOR THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
NORTHWEST WINDS GUSTING UP TO 25 KNOTS WILL CREATE CHOPPY
CONDITIONS, PARTICULARLY FOR THE NORTH SHORE AND THE APOSTLE
ISLANDS. WINDS AND WAVES WILL SUBSIDE TONIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE
MOVES OVERHEAD. WINDS BECOME SOUTH TO SOUTHEASTERLY ON SATURDAY
WITH GUSTS UP TO 10 TO 15 KNOTS. SOME LIGHT SNOW OR MIXED
PRECIPITATION IS POSSIBLE SATURDAY NIGHT.
FOR THE OPEN WATER DISCUSSION, REFER TO THE NWS MARQUETTE AREA
FORECAST DISCUSSION AT WEATHER.GOV/MQT.
DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MN...NONE.
WI...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 9 PM CST THIS EVENING FOR LSZ140-
141-150.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 PM CST THIS AFTERNOON FOR
LSZ142>146-148.
DISCUSSION...JDS
AVIATION...JDS
MARINE...JDS
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.
Main Text Page