558
FXUS63 KDLH 251748
AFDDLH
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DULUTH MN
1248 PM CDT SAT OCT 25 2025
KEY MESSAGES
- A FEW LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE THIS MORNING AS A
CLIPPER EXITS THE REGION. LITTLE TO NO ADDITIONAL ACCUMULATION
IS EXPECTED.
- DRY AND WARM TODAY AND SUNDAY, WITH ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES.
- A COUPLE OPPORTUNITIES FOR RAIN NEXT WEEK, BUT WIDESPREAD OR
PROLONGED RAIN IS NOT EXPECTED.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 248 AM CDT SAT OCT 25 2025
A QUICK HITTING CLIPPER IS PUSHING SOUTH OF THE AREA THIS
MORNING, WITH A SECOND SHORTWAVE DIVING SOUTHWARD INTO THE AREA.
SEEING AREAS OF LIGHT PRECIP DEVELOP FROM THE NORTH SHORE
NORTHWARD TOWARD THE CANADIAN BORDER AND PUSH SOUTHWARD, IN
RESPONSE TO THIS SECOND WAVE. WILL NEED TO ADD SOME LOW POPS FOR
A FEW HOURS THIS MORNING. WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED IF A FEW FLAKES
ARE MIXING IN WITH THE LIGHT RAIN.
A RETURN OF DRIER AIR IS EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON AS UPPER LEVEL
RIDGING EXTENDS NORTHWARD THROUGH THE REGION, AND REMAIN IN
PLACE FOR THE REST OF THE WEEKEND, KEEPING CONDITIONS DRY. LOW
LEVEL SOUTHERLY FLOW COULD BE BREEZY AT TIMES, WITH AN INCREASED
PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN HIGH PRESSURE TO OUR EAST AND A
SURFACE LOW TO OUR WEST. THESE WINDS WILL BRING WARM AIR
NORTHWARD, WITH MID TO UPPER 50S AND A FEW 60S BY SUNDAY.
LOCATIONS UP THE NORTH SHORE AND INLAND OVER PORTIONS OF THE
ARROWHEAD WILL REMAIN IN THE LOWER 50S.
EARLY NEXT WEEK, A LARGE TROUGH WILL MOVE OVER THE PACIFIC
NORTHWEST AND INTO THE ROCKIES, PUSHING THE UPPER RIDGE AXIS
SLIGHTLY EASTWARD OVER THE GREAT LAKES. DRY AIR OVER THE
NORTHLAND WILL KEEP MOST OF THE AREA DRY MONDAY. A NORTH TO
SOUTH MOISTURE AXIS WILL SET UP SOMEWHERE NEAR THE RED RIVER
VALLEY, BUT MODELS CONTINUE TO HAVE A WESTWARD TREND IN WHERE
THIS AXIS SETS UP MONDAY INTO TUESDAY. THIS WOULD PROMOTE A
DRIER FORECAST FOR THE NORTHLAND EARLY NEXT WEEK. AS THE UPPER
RIDGE CLOSES OFF OVER JAMES BAY, THE APPROACHING TROUGH WILL BE
PUSHED TO THE SOUTH, REINFORCING THE DRIER AIR OVER THE
NORTHLAND. AS THE TROUGH CLOSES OFF OVER THE MID MISSISSIPPI
RIVER VALLEY AND MERGES WITH LARGER TROUGHING OVER THE EASTERN
CONUS, A LINGERING SHEAR/VORTICITY AXIS MIGHT CARRY ENOUGH
MOISTURE WITH IT FOR A FEW SHOWER LATE IN THE WORK WEEK, BUT
RAINFALL WILL BE LIMITED. COULD SEE BETTER RAIN CHANCES FOR LATE
IN THE WEEK AND INTO THE WEEKEND AS A PACIFIC SHORTWAVE BRINGS
SOME MOISTURE BACK TO THE AREA.
AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY/
ISSUED AT 1248 PM CDT SAT OCT 25 2025
SOUTHERLY FLOW BRINGING MOISTURE NORTHWARD ADVECTED MVFR CIGS INTO
KBRD EARLIER TODAY. THESE MVFR CIGS ARE EXPECTED TO PERSIST THROUGH
THE AFTERNOON, LIFTING TO VFR THIS EVENING. BESIDES THE MVFR STRATUS
PRESENTLY AT KBRD, CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST TO BE VFR THROUGH THE
PERIOD WITH PERIODS OF GUSTY SOUTH TO SOUTHEAST WINDS. THERE IS THE
POTENTIAL FOR PATCHY FOG TONIGHT INTO EARLY SUNDAY MORNING IN NORTH-
CENTRAL WI. HOWEVER, THIS FOG IS LIKELY TO REMAIN EAST OF KHYR AND
NOT LEAD TO VISIBILITY REDUCTIONS AT THE TAF SITE.
MARINE /FOR NEAR SHORE WATERS OF WESTERN LAKE SUPERIOR/
ISSUED AT 248 AM CDT SAT OCT 25 2025
FOR TODAY, BEHIND AN EXITING CLIPPER, SOUTH WINDS INCREASE TO
5-10KTS THIS AFTERNOON, WITH GUSTS UP TO 18KTS. OTHERWISE,
FAIRLY BENIGN CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THIS WEEKEND. WINDS
BECOME SOUTH TO SOUTHEAST SUNDAY AFTERNOON. BY SUNDAY EVENING,
THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR STRONGER SOUTHEAST WINDS THAT COULD
LEAD TO SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS SUNDAY NIGHT AND AGAIN
MONDAY NIGHT.
FOR THE OPEN WATER DISCUSSION, REFER TO THE NWS MARQUETTE AREA
FORECAST DISCUSSION AT WEATHER.GOV/MQT.
DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MN...NONE.
WI...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
DISCUSSION...HA
AVIATION...UNRUH
MARINE...HA
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