172
FXUS63 KDLH 071126
AFDDLH
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DULUTH MN
526 AM CST WED JAN 7 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- WELL ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES CONTINUE TODAY AND TOMORROW WITH
HIGHS ABOVE FREEZING. AREAS OF FOG MAY PERSIST. SLIGHT COOL DOWN FOR
THE WEEKEND BEFORE ANOTHER CHANCE OF ABOVE FREEZING TEMPERATURES
MONDAY.
- CHANCE FOR RAIN AND SNOW PRIMARILY IN NORTHWEST TO NORTH-CENTRAL
WISCONSIN THURSDAY EVENING INTO FRIDAY.
- ANOTHER CHANCE FOR SNOW ACROSS THE NORTHLAND SATURDAY, BUT
CONFIDENCE REMAINS LOW ON COVERAGE AND AMOUNTS.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 346 AM CST WED JAN 7 2026
THE NORTHLAND REMAINS UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF HIGH PRESSURE EARLY
THIS MORNING, WHICH CONTINUES THROUGH TODAY. AS OF WRITING, THAT HAS
MEANT WIDESPREAD LOW STRATUS CLOUDS ALONG WITH PATCHES OF
FOG/FREEZING FOG. GUIDANCE GENERALLY SUGGESTS THAT THIS FOG SHOULD
DISSIPATE THROUGH LATE THIS MORNING. THERE ARE SOME DIFFERENCES ON
WHAT THE CLOUDS WILL DO, WITH SOME GUIDANCE SHOWING US BREAKING OUT
INTO SUNSHINE WHILE OTHERS MODELS HOLD ONTO CLOUDS FOR MOST OF THE
DAY. WHAT THE CLOUD COVER ENDS UP DOING WILL HAVE A LARGE INFLUENCE
ON TEMPERATURES, WITH CLEARER SKIES MEANING A MUCH WARMER DAY.
DESPITE THOSE DIFFERENCES, TEMPERATURES SHOULD LARGELY GET ABOVE
FREEZING IN THE MID TO HIGH 30S FOR MOST OF THE NORTHLAND TODAY.
THIS WILL HOWEVER ENCOURAGE ADDITIONAL SUBLIMATION OF THE SNOWPACK
WHICH MAY LEAD TO THE REDEVELOPMENT OF FOG/STRATUS INTO THIS EVENING
AND OVERNIGHT.
THURSDAY WE'LL CONTINUE TO BE UNDER WARM AIR ADVECTION AHEAD OF A
LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM EJECTING OUT OF THE SOUTHWEST WHICH WILL CONTINUE
TO KEEP US IN AN ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURE REGIME WITH HIGHS AGAIN
RETURNING TO THE LOW TO MID 30S. AS THIS SYSTEM TRACKS NORTHEASTWARD
THROUGH THE MIDWEST AND INTO THE MID-GREAT LAKES, SOME SENSIBLE
WEATHER IMPACTS COULD BE FELT FOR PORTIONS OF NORTHWEST WISCONSIN.
WHILE THERE IS STILL SOME VARIATION ON EXACT STORM PLACEMENT, LATEST
GUIDANCE PUTS THE BEST POPS OF 50% OR GREATER IN SOUTHEAST SAWYER,
SOUTHERN IRON & ASHLAND, AND ALL OF PRICE COUNTY. PRECIPITATION MAY
START AS RAIN THURSDAY AFTERNOON IN THOSE AREAS AND THEN TURN TO A
VERY WET, RIMED SNOW OVERNIGHT INTO EARLY FRIDAY MORNING. AT THE
MOMENT, ACCUMULATIONS ARE FAIRLY MARGINAL, AN INCH OR LESS. HOWEVER
WITH STILL VARYING LOW TRACK PLACEMENTS THERE ARE SOME ENSEMBLE
MEMBERS THAT BRING HIGHER AMOUNTS INTO THE EQUATION, THERE ARE STILL
PLENTY OF RUN-TO-RUN VARIATIONS, AND HIGH-RES DATA IS JUST STARTING
TO SAMPLE THIS EVENT SO UNCERTAINTY REMAINS. MODEL SOUNDINGS DO
INDICATE THAT SOME EMINENTLY DRY MID LEVEL AIR WILL EXIST ON THE
NORTH SIDE OF THIS SYSTEM SO THERE WILL LIKELY BE A FAIRLY SHARP
SNOW CUTOFF ON THE NORTH SIDE.
WE SEE ONLY A BRIEF LULL WITH A PASSING WEAK UPPER LEVEL RIDGE
MIDDAY FRIDAY BEFORE THE NEXT CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION ARRIVES VERY
EARLY SATURDAY MORNING. THIS INSTANCE OF POSSIBLE PRECIPITATION IS A
COMBINATION OF A AN UPPER LEVEL LOW PUSHING A CLIPPER-LIKE SYSTEM
ALONG THE BORDER WITH ANOTHER COLORADO LOW SYSTEM TRACKING SOUTHWEST
TO NORTHEAST ALONG THE LARGER OVERALL UPPER LEVEL TROUGH. DEPENDING
ON EXACTLY HOW THIS SETS UP WE MAY BE ABLE TO SEE SOME MORE
WIDESPREAD LIGHT SNOW. CAA ON THE BACKSIDE OF BOTH THE THURSDAY AND
SATURDAY SYSTEMS SHOULD LEND THEMSELVES TO SLIGHTLY CLOSER TO NORMAL
TEMPERATURES WITH HIGHS IN THE LOW 20S.
INTO NEXT WEEK, GUIDANCE IS IN DECENT AGREEMENT FOR ANOTHER WARM UP
MONDAY, WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME AREAS TO SEE HIGH TEMPERATURES
OVER 32F AGAIN. HOWEVER, FOLLOWING THAT MOST SIGNALS POINT TO
STEADILY DECREASING TEMPERATURES THROUGH MID TO LATE JANUARY WITH A
CONTINUED MARGINALLY ACTIVE PATTERN.
AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z THURSDAY/
ISSUED AT 526 AM CST WED JAN 7 2026
WIDESPREAD IFR TO LIFR CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES PERSIST THROUGH MID
TO LATE MORNING WHEN VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD RETURN. ANOTHER ROUND OF
LOW CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES MAY BE POSSIBLE TONIGHT FOR MOST IF
NOT ALL TERMINALS. MOSTLY LIGHT SOUTHERLY WINDS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH
THE TAF PERIOD.
MARINE /FOR NEARSHORE WATERS OF WESTERN LAKE SUPERIOR/
ISSUED AT 346 AM CST WED JAN 7 2026
FAIRLY BENIGN AND MOSTLY CALM CONDITIONS CONTINUE OVER LAKE SUPERIOR
THROUGH THE WORK WEEK. SOME NORTH WINDS WITH GUSTS OF 20-25 KNOTS
ARE POSSIBLE NEAR GRAND PORTAGE THURSDAY/FRIDAY WHICH MAY WARRANT A
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY. WITH PASSING SYSTEMS THURSDAY- SATURDAY, SOME
ELEVATED WINDS ARE POSSIBLE, PARTICULARLY THE NORTHEAST TO NORTHWEST
WINDS ON SATURDAY WHICH COULD REACH GALE CRITERIA ALONG PORTIONS OF
THE NORTH SHORE.
FOR THE OPEN WATER DISCUSSION, REFER TO THE NWS MARQUETTE AREA
FORECAST DISCUSSION AT WEATHER.GOV/MQT.
DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MN...NONE.
WI...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
DISCUSSION...LEVENS
AVIATION...LEVENS
MARINE...LEVENS
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