201
FXUS63 KDLH 282328
AFDDLH
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DULUTH MN
628 PM CDT MON SEP 28 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- WIDESPREAD RAINFALL MOVES IN LATER THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH
TUESDAY, LINGERING INTO WEDNESDAY.
- AREAS OF FOG POSSIBLE TONIGHT INTO TUESDAY MORNING, ESPECIALLY
NEAR LAKE SUPERIOR.
- WARM TEMPERATURES THROUGH WEDNESDAY, THEN COOLING DOWN
THURSDAY AND INTO THE WEEKEND.
- FROST AND FREEZING LOW TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED STARTING
THURSDAY NIGHT AND LASTING INTO THE WEEKEND.
- MORE RAIN IS POSSIBLE THIS WEEKEND.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 113 PM CDT MON SEP 28 2026
MORNING FOG HAS BEEN LIFTING WITH RESIDUAL STRATUS IN SPOTS
ACROSS NORTHWEST WISCONSIN AND EAST-CENTRAL MINNESOTA LATE THIS
MORNING. THIS IS LARGELY EXPECTED TO CONTINUE MIXING INTO
STRATOCUMULUS THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. OVERHEAD, HIGHER CLOUDS ARE
MOVING IN FROM THE WEST IN ADVANCE OF AN APPROACHING LOW AND
WARM FRONT IN NORTH DAKOTA. THIS WARM FRONT WILL BE THE FOCUS
FOR SOME DECENT RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS THAT ARE LARGELY EXPECTED
TO REMAIN APPROXIMATELY OVER THE RED RIVER VALLEY, WHERE
PERSISTENT WARM AIR AND MOISTURE ADVECTION SHOULD INTERACT WITH
THE WARM FRONT TO PRODUCE A QUASI-STATIONARY BAND OF RAIN
OVERNIGHT. SEVERAL INCHES OF RAIN WILL BE POSSIBLE THERE, WHILE
WE GET A GLANCING BLOW WITH SOME AMOUNTS PERHAPS APPROACHING AN
INCH FOR PARTS OF KOOCHICHING COUNTY. SOME EMBEDDED THUNDER IS
POSSIBLE AS WELL WITH SOME MODEST INSTABILITY OVERNIGHT. IN
ADDITION, LOOK FOR MORE FOG TONIGHT. WITH SYNOPTIC SOUTHERLY
FLOW AND EASTERLY FLOW OFF LAKE SUPERIOR, THE BEST CHANCE WILL
BE ALONG THE NORTH SHORE TERRAIN AND ALSO AROUND LAKE SUPERIOR.
WHILE AREAS OF DENSE FOG MAY BE POSSIBLE, THERE ISN'T ENOUGH
CONFIDENCE THAT IT WILL BE WIDESPREAD ENOUGH TO WARRANT
HEADLINES (~50-70% CHANCE OF VISIBILITY <1/2 MILE).
GOING INTO TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT, WE'LL LOOK FOR A SECONDARY
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH TO PASS THROUGH, AND THIS WILL BRING ANOTHER
ROUND OF RAIN EAST THROUGH THE REGION. IT'S LOOKING LIKE THIS
RAIN WILL BE MORE TRANSIENT, SO A QUARTER INCH TO AN INCH OF
RAIN FOR THE REST OF THE REGION TUESDAY INTO TUESDAY NIGHT. ANY
RISKS FOR FLOODING WITH THIS RAIN LOOK REALLY LOW OVERALL. THE
ONLY SMALL CONCERN IS IF THE BANDED RAIN TONIGHT EXTENDED A BIT
FURTHER NORTHEAST THAN FORECAST, WHICH COULD PUT PARTS OF
KOOCHICHING COUNTY INTO A CHANCE FOR SEEING OVER AN INCH OF
RAINFALL. EVEN IF THAT HAPPENS, THE RISK FOR FLOODING WOULD
REMAIN LOW.
THERE COULD BE SOME LINGERING RAIN IN NORTHWEST WISCONSIN ON
WEDNESDAY, BUT MOST ACTIVITY SHOULD BE TO OUR SOUTHEAST BY THEN.
OVERALL, IT'S LOOKING LIKE WE SHOULD SEE CLEARING SKIES WITH
WARM TEMPERATURES IN THE 70S ACROSS THE REGION WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON AS WE SEE WARM WEST TO SOUTHWEST FLOW THROUGH THE DAY.
WEDNESDAY NIGHT, A PRETTY POTENT COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO PASS
THROUGH. WE SHOULD SEE A PRETTY ABRUPT SWITCH TO NORTHWEST WINDS
AND COLD AIR SPILLING IN FROM CANADA. PLENTY OF DRY AIR WILL
ACCOMPANY THIS FRONT, SO WE'RE NOT EXPECTING RAIN. TEMPERATURES
WILL BE NOTICEABLY COOLER (HIGHS IN THE UPPER 50S TO LOW 60S)
THURSDAY ALONG WITH BRISK AND BREEZY NORTHWEST WINDS. THE WINDS
WILL SUBSIDE IN THE EVENING WITH HIGH PRESSURE SETTLING IN AND
SKIES BECOMING MOSTLY CLEAR. IT'S LOOKING LIKE A NEAR-PERFECT
RADIATIONAL COOLING NIGHT. A WIDESPREAD FROST IS LIKELY FOR MOST
PLACES EXCEPT POSSIBLY FOR SOME AREAS AROUND LAKE SUPERIOR.
TEMPERATURES WILL PROBABLY DROP BELOW FREEZING FOR MANY PLACES
TOO (50-70% CHANCE IN THE USUAL COOL SPOTS). FROST AND FREEZE
HEADLINES WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED.
QUASI-ZONAL FLOW WILL KEEP THE WEATHER QUIET FRIDAY, AND WE'LL
WATCH FOR ANOTHER UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH AND LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM TO
MOVE IN SOMETIME AROUND SATURDAY. LOWS FRIDAY NIGHT MAY FALL
INTO THE 30S AGAIN FOR MANY PLACES, BUT WITH CLOUDS MOVING IN
OVERNIGHT, FROST MAY BE A BIT MORE PATCHY. THE LOW PASSING
THROUGH SATURDAY IS ESSENTIALLY A CLIPPER SYSTEM, SO A QUICK
HITTING RAIN WITH ACCUMULATIONS LIKELY ONLY TOPPING OUT AROUND A
QUARTER INCH FOLLOWED BY A REINFORCING COLD FRONT SATURDAY
NIGHT. WINDS AND CLOUDS SATURDAY NIGHT SHOULD KEEP FROST VERY
MINIMAL, IF NOT NON-EXISTENT, THOUGH TEMPERATURES WILL STILL BE
ON THE CHILLY SIDE.
SUNDAY INTO MONDAY, IT'S LOOKING LIKE WE WILL END UP WITH MAINLY
DRY CONDITIONS AND HIGH PRESSURE SETTING UP. WE MAY SEE ANOTHER
COLD NIGHT WITH FROST/FREEZE CONDITIONS SUNDAY NIGHT. A LITTLE
LINGERING MOISTURE COULD STICK AROUND DEPENDING ON PLACEMENT OF
AN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH ALOFT. IF WE DO HOLD ON TO SOME MOISTURE,
IT WOULDN'T BE OUT OF THE QUESTION FOR A FEW SNOW FLURRIES
SOMEWHERE, MOST LIKELY THE ARROWHEAD, BUT PREDICTABILITY FOR
THAT IS VERY LOW RIGHT NOW.
AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z WEDNESDAY/
ISSUED AT 623 PM CDT MON SEP 28 2026
VFR CONDITIONS IS GRADUALLY LOWERING AS MVFR CEILINGS MOVE IN
FROM THE WEST. RAIN SHOWERS WILL BE SOON TO FOLLOW AS WELL AS
IFR CEILINGS. VISIBILITIES ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN VFR, BUT COULD
LOWER TO MVFR/BRIEF IFR WITH THE HEAVIEST RAINFALL. RAIN SHOWERS
WILL LINGER INTO TOMORROW EVENING FOR OUR EASTERN TERMINALS -
HIB, DLH, AND HYR. TERMINALS TO THE WEST WILL SEE LITTLE
IMPROVEMENT AS ANOTHER SHOWERS CONTINUE TO MOVE EAST TUESDAY
INTO WEDNESDAY.
MARINE /FOR NEARSHORE WATERS OF WESTERN LAKE SUPERIOR/
ISSUED AT 331 PM CDT MON SEP 28 2026
UPDATE: ADDED DENSE FOG ADVISORIES FOR MOST OF THE SOUTH SHORE
THROUGH THIS EVENING. SATELLITE AND WEBCAM SHOWS DENSE FOG IN
PLACE AROUND SAXON HARBOR, AND THIS SHOULD EXPAND OVER THE NEXT
FEW HOURS AS MODELS SUGGEST. SOUTHERLY WINDS MAY CAUSE FOG TO
EXPAND FURTHER NORTH LATER TONIGHT, AND MORE DENSE FOG
ADVISORIES MAY BE NEEDED.
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION:
LIGHT NORTHEAST WINDS TONIGHT, BECOMING SOUTHERLY ALONG
THE SOUTH SHORE. ON TUESDAY, WIND SPEEDS WILL INCREASE AND
GUSTS UP TO 15 TO 25 KT ARE EXPECTED DURING THE AFTERNOON AND
EVENING. THERE IS HIGH ENOUGH CONFIDENCE IN ~25 KT WINDS AROUND
GRAND PORTAGE TUESDAY INTO TUESDAY EVENING THAT I ISSUED A SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORY WITH THIS UPDATE. WAVES UP TO 4 FT ARE EXPECTED
THERE AS WELL. ALONG THE SOUTH SHORE, 20-25 KT WINDS ARE
POSSIBLE (40% CHANCE) AS WELL, BUT SINCE CONDITIONS ARE
MARGINAL, I WILL HOLD OFF ON SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES THERE FOR
NOW. WAVES ARE NOT EXPECTED TO BE A CONCERN THERE. EXPECT RAIN
TO MOVE IN LATER TONIGHT AND PERSIST THROUGH TUESDAY AND TUESDAY
NIGHT AT TIMES. THUNDER IS NOT EXPECTED.
FOR THE OPEN WATER DISCUSSION, REFER TO THE NWS MARQUETTE AREA
FORECAST DISCUSSION AT WEATHER.GOV/MQT.
FIRE WEATHER
ISSUED AT 113 PM CDT MON SEP 28 2026
A WIDESPREAD WETTING RAIN IS EXPECTED STARTING TONIGHT AND
PERSISTING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT. A FEW PLACES MAY SEE SLIGHTLY
LESS THAN A QUARTER INCH IN TOTAL, BUT MOST LOCATIONS SHOULD SEE
BETWEEN A QUARTER AND ONE INCH WITH LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS
POSSIBLE IN AND AROUND KOOCHICHING COUNTY. WITH THE RAIN, RH
WILL REMAIN HIGH AND FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN MINIMAL
EVEN AFTER RAIN CLEARS OUT TO SOME SUNSHINE ON WEDNESDAY. RH IS
EXPECTED TO REMAIN ABOVE 50 PERCENT. A POTENT AND DRY COLD FRONT
WILL PASS THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY WITH BREEZY
NORTHWEST WINDS GUSTING TO 15 TO 25 MPH. TEMPERATURES WILL BE
COOLER, BUT DRY AIR WILL RESULT IN MIN RH FALLING TO AROUND 30
TO 45 PERCENT, PERHAPS LEADING TO SLIGHTLY ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER
CONDITIONS. SIMILARLY DRY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED FRIDAY, BUT
WITH LIGHT WINDS. ANOTHER ROUND OF MAINLY LIGHT RAIN IS EXPECTED
ON SATURDAY.
SEE THE FIRE WEATHER FORECAST PRODUCT FOR A MORE THOROUGH
BREAKDOWN OF FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS.
DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MN...NONE.
WI...NONE.
MARINE...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 1 AM CDT TUESDAY FOR LSZ121-146>148-
150.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 10 AM TO 10 PM CDT TUESDAY FOR
LSZ140.
DISCUSSION...JDS
AVIATION...KML
MARINE...JDS
FIRE WEATHER...JDS
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