794
FXUS63 KDLH 221718
AFDDLH
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DULUTH MN
1118 AM CST SUN DEC 22 2024
KEY MESSAGES
- FLURRIES WILL BE POSSIBLE TODAY WITH LIGHT LAKE-EFFECT SNOW
LIKELY NEAR THE NORTH SHORE. ACCUMULATIONS ARE EXPECTED TO BE
AT OR UNDER AN INCH.
- ANOTHER CHANCE FOR LIGHT SNOW ARRIVES TONIGHT INTO MONDAY,
MAINLY IMPACTING NORTH-CENTRAL WI. SNOW AMOUNTS HAVE BEEN
TRENDING DOWN, WITH SNOW ACCUMULATIONS LIKELY TO BE UNDER AN
INCH.
- QUIET WEATHER IS EXPECTED AROUND MID-WEEK, WITH ABOVE-NORMAL
TEMPS OCCURRING LATE THIS UPCOMING WEEK INTO NEXT WEEKEND.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 352 AM CST SUN DEC 22 2024
IN COMPARISON TO THE COOL TEMPERATURES YESTERDAY MORNING,
TEMPERATURES EARLY THIS MORNING HAVE BEEN AROUND 10-15+ DEGREES
WARMER. THIS IS A RESULT OF SOUTHERLY FLOW PROVIDING WAA AND LOW
STRATUS ACROSS THE CWA. UNDERNEATH THIS LOW STRATUS, CONDITIONS HAVE
BEEN RELATIVELY QUIET EARLY THIS MORNING WITH ONLY A FEW FLURRIES
NEAR THE NORTH SHORE. A WEAK SHORTWAVE WITH LITTLE ASSOCIATED
MOISTURE IS EXPECTED TO PROPAGATE THROUGH THE CWA TODAY, BRINGING A
CHANCE FOR FLURRIES ACROSS A LARGE PORTION OF THE AREA. HI-RES MODEL
SOUNDINGS SHOW A LACK OF SATURATION ALOFT IN THE BORDERLANDS, WITH A
LOW 20% CHANCE FOR FREEZING DRIZZLE. THE CURRENT EXPECTATION IS THAT
PRECIP TODAY WILL BE FALLING AS FLURRIES IN THE BORDERLANDS, BUT
FREEZING DRIZZLE LEADING TO A GLAZE OF ICE CAN'T BE ENTIRELY RULED
OUT.
IN ADDITION TO FLURRIES, THE WEAK SHORTWAVE PROPAGATING THROUGH
TODAY IS LIKELY TO DEVELOP LIGHT LAKE-EFFECT SNOW ALONG THE NORTH
SHORE IN LAKE AND COOK COUNTIES AS WEAK DYNAMIC FORCING OCCURS. WITH
LAKE SFC TEMPS NEAR GRAND MARAIS AROUND 3 DEGC AND 850MB TEMPS
EXPECTED TO BE AROUND -12 DEGC, THIS WILL PROVIDE ENOUGH DELTA-T TO
GENERATE AROUND 150 J/KG OF LAKE INDUCED INSTABILITY. WHILE FETCH
AND THERMODYNAMICS WILL BE FAVORABLE THIS MORNING, SNOW
ACCUMULATIONS ARE EXPECTED TO BE LIGHT AT UNDER AN INCH DUE TO THE
PROGRESSIVE NATURE OF TODAY'S SHORTWAVE AND WAA AROUND 850MB
OCCURRING MID TO LATE THIS AFTERNOON.
ATTENTION TURNS TOWARDS ANOTHER SHORTWAVE TROUGH, WHICH WILL BE
MOVING THROUGH THE UPPER MIDWEST TONIGHT INTO MONDAY. IMPACTS FROM
THIS SYSTEM ARE EXPECTED TO BE MINIMAL, AS THE VAST MAJORITY OF QPF
OCCURS SOUTH AND EAST OF THE CWA. THERE WAS PREVIOUSLY A SIGNAL OF
LOCALLY HIGHER SNOW ACCUMULATIONS OF 2-4" OCCURRING IN NORTH-
CENTRAL WI, AS A BAND OF HEAVIER SNOW DEVELOPED WITHIN AN AREA
OF FAVORABLE FGEN AND NEGATIVE OMEGA. HOWEVER, RECENT TRENDS IN
THE MODELS SHOW A DECREASING TREND IN SNOW ACCUMULATIONS. THE
EXPECTATION IS THAT SNOW ACCUMULATIONS WILL REMAIN BELOW AN
INCH, WITH HIGHEST SNOW AMOUNTS BEING AROUND PRICE COUNTY AND
AREAS TO THE SOUTH AND EAST.
AFTER THE SHORTWAVE EXITS THE CWA ON MONDAY, CHRISTMAS EVE WILL SEE
QUIET CONDITIONS AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS. QUIET CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED TO PERSIST THROUGH CHRISTMAS DAY, WITH A DRY SHORTWAVE
TROUGH PASSING THROUGH. STARTING MID-WEEK, A STRONG WAA REGIME IS
EXPECTED TO DEVELOP AS THE POLAR JET STREAM DIVES INTO THE SOUTHERN
HIGH PLAINS. THIS PATTERN OF SOUTHERLY FLOW IS VERY LIKELY TO
INCREASE HIGH TEMPS ABOVE FREEZING FOR THE LATTER HALF OF THIS
UPCOMING WEEK INTO NEXT WEEKEND. IN ADDITION, LOW TEMPS WILL BE NEAR
OR EVEN ABOVE FREEZING ON FRIDAY AND SATURDAY MORNINGS FOR PORTIONS
OF THE AREA. THIS WILL LIKELY LEAD TO SOME MELTING OF THE SNOWPACK,
ESPECIALLY AS MULTIPLE CHANCES FOR RAIN ARRIVE LATE THIS UPCOMING
WEEK INTO THE WEEKEND.
AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY/
ISSUED AT 1118 AM CST SUN DEC 22 2024
MVFR STRATUS OCCURRING AROUND MIDDAY TODAY IS ALREADY BEGINNING
TO SCATTER OUT OR CLEAR COMPLETELY AT BRD AND HYR. HIB AND DLH
MAY ALSO SEE VFR CEILINGS FOR A TIME LATER THIS AFTERNOON INTO
EVENING. HOWEVER, EXPECT CEILINGS TO LOWER DOWN AGAIN TONIGHT TO
IFR AS LOW PRESSURE MOVES IN FROM THE WEST, LINGERING AT MOST
SITES INTO MONDAY MORNING, THOUGH COULD SEE SOME SCATTERING OUT
AT INL LATE MONDAY MORNING. THERE IS A 25% CHANCE FOR LIFR
CEILINGS, BUT CONFIDENCE IS TOO LOW TO INCLUDE IN CURRENT TAFS.
THE LOW PRESSURE WILL ALSO BRING A PERIOD OF LIGHT SNOW AND
PERHAPS BRIEF FREEZING DRIZZLE TONIGHT INTO MONDAY MORNING,
PRIMARILY FOR BRD AND HYR, WITH MVFR TO PERHAPS BRIEFLY IFR
VISIBILITIES.
SOUTH TO SOUTHEAST WINDS AROUND 10 KNOTS THIS AFTERNOON, WITH
OCCASIONAL GUSTS TO 15-18 KNOTS AT BRD AND HYR, WILL BECOME
LIGHT THIS EVENING AND THEN BACK TO NORTHERLY OVERNIGHT INTO
MONDAY MORNING.
MARINE /FOR NEAR SHORE WATERS OF WESTERN LAKE SUPERIOR/
ISSUED AT 352 AM CST SUN DEC 22 2024
SOUTHERLY WINDS ARE EXPECTED TODAY, WITH WIND GUSTS INCREASING TO 20
TO 25 KNOTS THIS MORNING IN THE APOSTLE ISLANDS TO SAXON HARBOR AND
ALONG THE NORTH SHORE FROM TACONITE HARBOR TO GRAND PORTAGE. WAVE
HEIGHTS WILL ALSO BE INCREASING TO 3 TO 6 FEET ALONG PORTIONS OF THE
NORTH SHORE ABOVE TACONITE HARBOR. A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS IN
EFFECT. THROUGH THE DAY AND EVENING SUNDAY, WINDS SHOULD WEAKEN,
EVENTUALLY BECOMING NORTH TO NORTHEAST ON MONDAY AROUND 10 TO 15
KNOTS.
FOR THE OPEN WATER DISCUSSION, REFER TO THE NWS MARQUETTE AREA
FORECAST DISCUSSION AT WEATHER.GOV/MQT.
DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MN...NONE.
WI...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 PM CST THIS AFTERNOON FOR LSZ140-
141.
DISCUSSION...UNRUH
AVIATION...ROTHSTEIN
MARINE...UNRUH
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