959
FXUS63 KDLH 271759
AFDDLH
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DULUTH MN
1159 AM CST TUE JAN 27 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- SCATTERED LIGHT SNOW/FLURRIES CONTINUE TODAY, LINGERING
LONGEST IN NORTHWEST WISCONSIN INTO THIS AFTERNOON. LESS THAN
ONE HALF OF AN INCH OF ADDITIONAL ACCUMULATIONS EXPECTED.
- HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE SINGLE DIGITS ABOVE AND BELOW ZERO
AND LOW TEMPERATURES IN THE SINGLE DIGITS TO TEENS BELOW ZERO
FOR MOST OF THE NORTHLAND THROUGH THE REST OF THE WORK WEEK.
WE WARM BACK TO CLIMATOLOGICAL AVERAGES THIS WEEKEND.
- CHANCES FOR SNOW REMAIN LOW (LESS THAN 20%) MID TO LATE THIS
WEEK BEFORE LIGHT SNOW CHANCES (30-40%) MAY RETURN SATURDAY
NIGHT AND SUNDAY. THE EXCEPTION WILL BE OFF AND ON LIGHT LAKE
EFFECT SNOW LINGERS THROUGH THE WORK WEEK FOR THE SOUTH
SHORE.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 219 AM CST TUE JAN 27 2026
CURRENT CONDITIONS AND TODAY:
THE CENTER OF THE SURFACE LOW PRESSURE FROM THE CLIPPER SYSTEM
IS NOW INTO EASTERN LAKE SUPERIOR AS OF 130 AM CST THIS MORNING.
WE ARE STILL SEEING SOME COLD AIR ADVECTION/HORIZONTAL
CONVECTIVE ROLLS OF LIGHT SNOW IN NORTHEAST MINNESOTA AND
NORTHWEST WISCONSIN BEHIND THE DEPARTING SYSTEM DURING THE
CURRENT OVERNIGHT HOURS, WITH VISIBILITY OCCASIONALLY REDUCED TO
1-3 MILES. EXPECT THIS ACTIVITY TO CONTINUE INTO THE MORNING
HOURS WHILE GRADUALLY DECREASING IN INTENSITY, BUT LINGER
MAINLY AS FLURRIES IN WISCONSIN THIS AFTERNOON AS DRIER AIR
STARTS TO WORK IN BEHIND THE CLIPPER.
GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS PERSIST THROUGHOUT TODAY, BEING STRONGEST
THIS MORNING AT 20-30 MPH FOR MOST LOCATIONS, WHICH MAY LEAD TO
PATCHY AREAS OF BLOWING SNOW DUE TO THE FINER CONSISTENCY OF
THE RECENT SNOWFALL. THERE IS ALSO A SIGNAL FOR SOME ENHANCED
DOWNSLOPE WINDS ALONG THE NORTH SHORE THIS MORNING THAT COULD
PUSH GUSTS UP TO 35-40 MPH THERE. WHEN COMBINED WITH LOW
TEMPERATURES IN THE SINGLE DIGITS BELOW ZERO TO AROUND -10F THIS
MORNING, THE WINDS SHOULD CREATE WIND CHILLS OF -20F TO -30F IN
NORTHEAST MINNESOTA AND -15F TO -25F IN NORTHWEST WISCONSIN.
POCKETS OF WIND CHILLS DOWN TO -35F ARE POSSIBLE IN THE
ARROWHEAD AROUND AND SHORTLY AFTER SUNRISE THIS MORNING, BUT ARE
NOT EXPECTED TO BE WIDESPREAD ENOUGH TO WARRANT ISSUING A COLD
WEATHER ADVISORY. TEMPERATURES WARM INTO THE SINGLE DIGITS ABOVE
ZERO THIS AFTERNOON.
WEDNESDAY - FRIDAY:
WE STAY COLDER THAN IS TYPICAL FOR LATE JANUARY THROUGH THE REST
OF THE WORK WEEK, THOUGH NOT AS COLD AS THE RECENT FRIGID
TEMPERATURES. EXPECT HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE SINGLE DIGITS
ABOVE AND BELOW ZERO EACH DAY AND OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE SINGLE
DIGITS TO TEENS EACH NIGHT INTO MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY. WIND
GUSTS GENERALLY REMAIN UNDER 20 MPH EACH DAY FOR WEDNESDAY
THROUGH FRIDAY, SO MINIMUM WIND CHILLS EACH NIGHT/MORNING WILL
MOSTLY BOTTOM OUT IN THE TEENS TO 20S BELOW ZERO. CAN'T RULE OUT
A FEW POCKETS OF -30F TO -35F IN NORTHEAST MINNESOTA, BUT
WIDESPREAD WIND CHILLS OF COLDER THAN -30F ARE NOT EXPECTED AT
THIS TIME. WE WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR FOR IF ANY COLD WEATHER
ADVISORIES MAY BE NEEDED THROUGH THE REST OF THE WORK WEEK.
AS FOR PRECIPITATION, SNOW CHANCES REMAIN AT OR UNDER 20% FOR
THE REMAINDER OF THE WORK WEEK. A RETROGRADING UPPER-LEVEL LOW
OVER HUDSON BAY MIDWEEK WILL EVENTUALLY BRING AN INVERTED
SHORTWAVE TROUGH THE NORTHLAND LATE THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY MORNING,
BUT LOOKS TO BE MOISTURE STARVED AS IT MOVES THROUGH (PWATS
ONLY ~0.05 INCHES). CAN'T RULE OUT SOME STRAY, LIGHT
SNOW/FLURRIES AS THIS SYSTEM PASSES THROUGH, BUT
IMPACTS/ACCUMULATIONS SHOULD BE MINIMAL TO NIL. OUTSIDE OF THAT
SYSTEM, THE ONLY SNOW CHANCES IN THE NORTHLAND THROUGH THE END
OF THE WORK WEEK WILL BE OFF- AND- ON LIGHT LAKE EFFECT SNOW
SHOWERS FOR THE SOUTH SHORE GIVEN NORTHWEST TO NORTHERLY WINDS
THROUGHOUT.
THIS WEEKEND - EARLY NEXT WEEK:
STRONG SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE SLIDES SOUTH OUT OF MANITOBA INTO
THE UPPER MIDWEST/HIGH PLAINS DAYTIME FRIDAY AND SATURDAY, WHICH
SHOULD KEEP NON-SOUTH SHORE PORTIONS OF THE NORTHLAND SNOW-FREE
DURING THAT TIMEFRAME. THIS HIGH PRESSURE MOVES OFF TO THE
SOUTH/SOUTHEAST LATE SATURDAY, PAVING THE WAY FOR A WEAK ALBERTA
CLIPPER TO MOVE THROUGH THE UPPER MIDWEST EITHER SATURDAY NIGHT
INTO SUNDAY OR SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY NIGHT. THERE IS STILL A DECENT
AMOUNT OF SPREAD ON THE TIMING OF THAT SYSTEM, BUT IT WOULD
BRING THE NEXT DECENT CHANCE (30-40%) FOR LIGHT SNOW TO THE
NORTHLAND. NBM PROBABILITIES OF >=1" OF SNOW FOR THAT TIMEFRAME
ARE ALSO ONLY 15-30%.
A SUBSTANTIAL SHIFT TO NEAR OR EVEN SLIGHTLY ABOVE AVERAGE
TEMPERATURES ARE IN STORE FOR THIS WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK,
WITH HIGHS IN THE TEENS TO 20S BY SATURDAY AND WIDESPREAD 20S
FOR SUNDAY INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. LOWS WILL ALSO BE MUCH WARMER
IN THE SINGLE DIGITS ABOVE ZERO TO AROUND 10F STARTING SATURDAY
NIGHT AND CONTINUING EACH DAY INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK/THE START OF
FEBRUARY.
AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY/
ISSUED AT 1159 AM CST TUE JAN 27 2026
VFR CONDITIONS PREVAIL ACROSS THE NORTHLAND CURRENTLY WITH SOME
MVFR CEILINGS IN SPOTS, NAMELY KINL. KINL WILL EVENTUALLY
IMPROVE TO VFR TONIGHT. A VFR CLOUD DECK WILL LIKELY ARRIVE
AROUND DAYBREAK TOMORROW, BUT VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO
PREVAIL. GUSTY NORTHWESTERLY WINDS THIS AFTERNOON WILL DIMINISH
THIS EVENING. GUSTS TO 20 TO 30 KNOTS WILL BE POSSIBLE THROUGH
SUNSET.
MARINE /FOR NEARSHORE WATERS OF WESTERN LAKE SUPERIOR/
ISSUED AT 219 AM CST TUE JAN 27 2026
GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS PERSIST TODAY AND THIS EVENING,
MAINTAINING HAZARDOUS CONDITIONS FOR SMALL CRAFT. ELEVATED WAVES
IN THE OUTER APOSTLE ISLANDS OF 3-6 FT IN ICE-FREE AREAS WILL
ALSO PRODUCE HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY INTO THIS MORNING. THERE
REMAINS A SIGNAL FOR NEAR-GALE FORCE WIND GUSTS FROM SILVER BAY
TO GRAND PORTAGE THIS MORNING (6 AM TO AROUND NOON CST
TIMEFRAME) WHERE PERIODIC GUSTS TO 35 KT WILL BE POSSIBLE. IF
THIS SIGNAL INCREASES, A SHORT-FUSE GALE WARNING MAY BE NEEDED.
NORTHWEST WIND GUSTS LARGELY FALL BELOW 20 KTS TONIGHT AND
WEDNESDAY AND THEN VEER TO NORTHERLY FOR THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. AT
THIS TIME, THERE DOES NOT APPEAR TO BE ANY COHERENT WIDESPREAD
SIGNAL FOR CONDITIONS HAZARDOUS TO SMALL CRAFT BEGINNING
WEDNESDAY AND PERSISTING THROUGH THIS WEEKEND.
FOR THE OPEN WATER DISCUSSION, REFER TO THE NWS MARQUETTE AREA
FORECAST DISCUSSION AT WEATHER.GOV/MQT.
DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MN...NONE.
WI...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT CST TONIGHT FOR LSZ140>146-
148-150.
DISCUSSION...ROTHSTEIN
AVIATION...BJH
MARINE...ROTHSTEIN
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