825
FXUS63 KDLH 131955
AFDDLH
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DULUTH MN
155 PM CST FRI FEB 13 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- WIDESPREAD FOG TONIGHT INTO SATURDAY MORNING WITH DENSE FOG
ADVISORIES IN EFFECT.
- VERY WARM AND MAINLY DRY WEATHER PATTERN THROUGH MONDAY.
- A MORE ROBUST SYSTEM TO MOVES IN LATE TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY
BRINGING A MIX OF RAIN AND MODERATE TO MAYBE HEAVY WET SNOWFALL.
A SECOND SYSTEM MAY BRING SNOWFALL TO NORTHWEST WISCONSIN
AGAIN LATE NEXT WEEK.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 145 PM CST FRI FEB 13 2026
THE NORTHLAND IS CURRENTLY SEEING A STINT OF EARLY SPRING AS
HIGH PRESSURE AND WARM AIR ADVECTION PUSH TEMPERATURES WELL
ABOVE SEASONAL AVERAGES. HIGHS THIS AFTERNOON ARE SITTING IN THE
LOW TO UPPER-40S UNDER SUNNY SKIES. WE ARE WATCHING THE DAILY
HIGH TEMPERATURE RECORDS TODAY (CURRENT RECORDS OF 47 F AT
DULUTH AND 49 F AT BRAINERD) FOR IF ANY ARE BROKEN.
HOWEVER, THIS WARMTH MOVING OVER THE SNOWPACK WILL CREATE AREAS
OF FOG TONIGHT. DENSE FOG IS EXPECTED TO FORM TONIGHT AFTER
SUNSET FIRST IN THE ARROWHEAD, BRAINERD LAKES AND NORTH-CENTRAL
WISCONSIN. TOWARDS MIDNIGHT, THE FORECAST THINKING PULLS THAT
DENSE FOG FURTHER INTO THE TWIN PORTS, AND US HWY 53 AND I 35
CORRIDOR AREAS. DENSE FOG ADVISORIES WERE ISSUED FOR THESE
CONCERNS OF DENSE FOG LASTING INTO LATE SATURDAY MORNING.
BECAUSE TEMPERATURES WILL DROP INTO THE LOW 20S, FREEZING FOG IS
LIKELY, WHICH CAN LEAVE A THIN, TRANSPARENT COAT OF ICE ON
UNTREATED SIDEWALKS AND ROADS. GIVE YOURSELF EXTRA TIME FOR ANY
TRAVEL SATURDAY MORNING.
THE QUIET AND WARM PATTERN HOLDS THROUGH THE REST OF THE WEEKEND
AND INTO THE FIRST HALF OF MONDAY. HIGHS WILL STAY IN THE 40S FOR
MOST, THOUGH THE IMMEDIATE INTERNATIONAL BORDER WILL LIKELY SEE
MORE SKY COVER AND POSSIBLY SOME LIGHT FLURRIES SUNDAY NIGHT.
THE MAIN FORECAST ATTENTION THEN SHIFTS TO A SIGNIFICANT
PATTERN CHANGE MID NEXT WEEK.
A STRONG COLORADO LOW IS FORECAST TO EJECT OUT OF THE ROCKIES AND
MOVE TOWARD THE GREAT LAKES TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY. THIS
SYSTEM IS TAPPING INTO A DEEP PLUME OF MOISTURE, AND THE PRIMARY
CONCERN FOR US WILL BE THE TRACK OF THE STORM. CURRENT DATA
SUGGESTS A PATH THAT COULD BRING A VARIETY OF PRECIPITATION TYPES
TO THE NORTHLAND. WE WILL LIKELY START AS A RAIN OR A WINTRY
MIX LATE TUESDAY AFTERNOON (AT THE SOONEST), BUT MORE LIKELY
TUESDAY EARLY EVENING, BEFORE TRANSITIONING TO SNOW TUESDAY
NIGHT. BECAUSE OF THE WARM AIR INVOLVED, ANY SNOW THAT FALLS
WILL LIKELY BE THE WET, HEAVY VARIETY THAT IS DIFFICULT TO
SHOVEL - EVEN LIGHT TO MODERATE AMOUNTS CAN BE A NUISANCE FOR
ANYONE TRAVELING. WHILE THERE IS STILL SOME UNCERTAINTY
REGARDING THE SNOWFALL TOTALS DUE TO POTENTIAL SHIFTS IN THE
STORM TRACK, THIS SYSTEM HAS THE POTENTIAL TO CAUSE TRAVEL
DISRUPTIONS ACROSS NORTHEAST MINNESOTA AND NORTHWEST WISCONSIN
THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING. AT THIS TIME THERE IS A 75% CHANCE OF
AT LEAST 1-3 INCHES ALONG AND SOUTH OF THE IRON RANGE TUESDAY
NIGHT INTO THURSDAY EARLY MORNING. THERE IS A 50% CHANCE OF 3-6
INCHES FOR THAT SAME AREA. THE EXCEPTION, DUE TO A LONGER
RESIDUAL TIME OF A RAIN/SNOW MIX, WOULD BE AREAS OF INLAND
NORTHWEST WISCONSIN SOUTH OF WI RTE 70 WHERE CLOSER TO 1-3
INCHES IS AROUND A 50% CHANCE OF OCCURRENCE. THE EASTERLY
ONSHORE FLOW INTO THE NORTH SHORE HIGH TERRAIN RIDGE AREAS AND
NORTHERN BAYFIELD COUNTY COULD SEE EVEN MORE LOCALIZED SNOWFALL
ENHANCEMENT FOR THOSE AREAS.
THE SECOND SYSTEM IS PROGGED TO MOVE THROUGH CLOSER TO A NEXT
FRIDAY PM INTO SATURDAY TIME PERIOD, BUT CURRENTLY FAVORED EVEN
FURTHER SOUTHWARD WHICH WOULD FAVOR MOST SNOWFALL, IF ANY, TO BE
OVER NORTHWEST WISCONSIN.
AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY/
ISSUED AT 1125 AM CST FRI FEB 13 2026
VFR CONDITIONS OCCUR THROUGH 00Z SAT OUTSIDE OF IFR CEILINGS
ALONG THE BORDERLANDS. FROM 01 TO 06Z THERE WILL BE INCREASING
COVERAGE OF DENSE FOG IN THE REGION CREATING IFR TO LIFR
CONDITIONS. THESE CONDITIONS ARE LIKELY THROUGH 13-16Z WHEN THE
FOG SLOWLY LIFTS.
MARINE /FOR NEARSHORE WATERS OF WESTERN LAKE SUPERIOR/
ISSUED AT 153 PM CST FRI FEB 13 2026
LIGHT WINDS AND MINIMAL WAVE ACTION ARE FORECAST FOR THE NEXT
TWO DAYS. THERE IS A 50-60 PERCENT CHANCE OF GALE FORCE EASTERLY
WINDS TUESDAY PM INTO WEDNESDAY AM AS A STRONG STORM MOVES TO
THE SOUTH OF THE BIG LAKE. PENDING THIS FORECAST TRACK
CONTINUING, A GALE WATCH IS LIKELY TO BE NEEDED OVER THE NEXT
FEW DAYS FOR MID NEXT WEEK.
FOR THE OPEN WATER DISCUSSION, REFER TO THE NWS MARQUETTE AREA
FORECAST DISCUSSION AT WEATHER.GOV/MQT.
DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MN...DENSE FOG ADVISORY FROM 9 PM THIS EVENING TO 10 AM CST
SATURDAY FOR MNZ012-020-021-033>036.
DENSE FOG ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 10 AM CST SATURDAY
FOR MNZ019-025-026-037-038.
WI...DENSE FOG ADVISORY FROM 9 PM THIS EVENING TO 10 AM CST
SATURDAY FOR WIZ001>004-008-009.
DENSE FOG ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 10 AM CST SATURDAY
FOR WIZ006-007.
MARINE...DENSE FOG ADVISORY FROM 9 PM THIS EVENING TO 10 AM CST
SATURDAY FOR LSZ142.
DISCUSSION...NLY
AVIATION...NLY
MARINE...NLY
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