139
FXUS63 KDLH 181142
AFDDLH
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DULUTH MN
642 AM CDT SAT APR 18 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- MUCH COOLER TODAY WITH GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS WITH GUSTS OF 25 TO 35 MPH.
- NEAR-CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS POSSIBLE TODAY AND
MONDAY.
- COOL AND DRY SUNDAY WITH NORTHWEST WINDS AND MORE SUNSHINE.
- WARMER TEMPERATURES RETURN NEXT WEEK WITH NEAR-CRITICAL FIRE
WEATHER POSSIBLE MONDAY AND WEDNESDAY.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 313 AM CDT SAT APR 18 2026
THE COLD FRONT THAT BROUGHT SEVERE WEATHER YESTERDAY HAS MOVED
WELL TO OUR EAST, LEAVING THE NORTHLAND IN A MUCH COOLER AND
DRIER AIR MASS. THE MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE
THROUGH MUCH OF THE MORNING HOURS, BUT GRADUALLY GIVE WAY TO
SOME SUNSHINE BY THIS AFTERNOON AS DRIER AIR MOVES INTO THE
AREA. NORTHWEST WINDS WILL BE THE PRIMARY CONCERN TODAY, GUSTING
BETWEEN 25 AND 35 MPH ACROSS MUCH OF THE REGION FOR SEVERAL
HOURS. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL STRUGGLE TO REACH THE UPPER 30S OR
LOW 40S. A FEW FLURRIES OR LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE THIS
AFTERNOON, MAINLY FOR THE TIP OF THE ARROWHEAD. THE DRY AIR
MOVING INTO THE REGION, ALONG WITH THE GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS
WILL CREATE SEVERAL HOURS OF NEAR CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER
CONDITIONS THIS AFTERNOON FOR PARTS OF THE AREA.
TONIGHT, SKIES WILL CONTINUE TO CLEAR AS THE PRESSURE GRADIENT
RELAXES SLIGHTLY. LOW TEMPERATURES WILL DROP INTO THE UPPER
TEENS AND LOW 20S. SUNSHINE RETURNS FOR SUNDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS INTO THE REGION AND WINDS DIMINISH. TEMPERATURES WILL
ONLY BE A FEW DEGREES WARMER THAN TODAY, THOUGH WITH THE
SUNSHINE AND LIGHTER WINDS IT WILL FEEL WARMER.
WE WILL SEE A SIGNIFICANT WARMING TREND THROUGH THE MIDDLE PART
OF THE UPCOMING WORK WEEK. MONDAY WILL SEE HIGHS JUMP INTO THE
50S AS WINDS SHIFT TO THE SOUTH AND THE HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE
SHIFTS TO OUR EAST. THIS SOUTHERLY FLOW, COMBINED WITH DEEP
MIXING AND LOW RELATIVE HUMIDITY, MAY CREATE NEAR-CRITICAL FIRE
WEATHER CONDITIONS FOR MONDAY. TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY THE
WARMUP CONTINUES, WITH WIDESPREAD HIGHS IN THE 60S TO LOW 70S BY
WEDNESDAY. DRY CONDITIONS TO PERSIST THROUGH WEDNESDAY AS HIGH
PRESSURE REMAINS DOMINANT OVER THE GREAT LAKES REGION.
THE PATTERN SHIFTS LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY AS A NEW
LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM APPROACHES FROM THE WEST. RAIN CHANCES
INCREASE SIGNIFICANTLY WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY, WITH A FEW
EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE BY THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND
EVENING. WHILE THURSDAY REMAINS WARM, TEMPERATURES WILL FALL
THROUGH FRIDAY AND SATURDAY AS THE SYSTEM BRINGS COLDER AIR BACK
OVER THE AREA. THIS SYSTEM WILL ALSO BRING SOME MORE MUCH-
NEEDED RAINFALL TO THE REGION. SCATTERED RAIN SHOWERS ARE
EXPECTED TO LINGER THROUGH FRIDAY AND INTO SATURDAY.
AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SUNDAY/
ISSUED AT 642 AM CDT SAT APR 18 2026
AN EXTENSIVE AREA OF MVFR/VFR STRATUS LINGERS OVER THE AREA THIS
MORNING, WITH A FEW FLURRIES WITH VFR VISIBILITIES IN THE
REPORTS OUT THERE. THIS STRATUS WILL LINGER AT LEAST THROUGH THE
MORNING HOURS, BEFORE CLEARING MOVES IN FROM THE WEST FOR THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING. GRADUALLY IMPROVING CEILING HEIGHTS ARE
EXPECTED, WITH ALL SITES BECOMING VFR NO LATER THAN 17Z THIS
MORNING. WHILE THE LOWER CEILINGS LINGER, A FEW LIGHT SNOW
SHOWERS MAY BE POSSIBLE. NORTHWEST WINDS TO REMAIN GUSTY AT 25
TO AROUND 30 KNOTS THROUGH THE AFTERNOON HOURS, THEN SLOWLY
DIMINISHING AFTER 00Z.
MARINE /FOR NEARSHORE WATERS OF WESTERN LAKE SUPERIOR/
ISSUED AT 313 AM CDT SAT APR 18 2026
STRONG AND GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS TO CONTINUE THROUGH TODAY,
THOUGH WE WILL BE CONVERTING THE GALE WARNING FOR THE NORTH
SHORE OVER TO A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY HERE AT 3 AM. THE NORTHWEST
WINDS TO GUST UP TO 30 KNOTS IN PLACES THROUGH EARLY EVENING.
WAVES OF 3 TO 6 FEET ARE EXPECTED TODAY, PARTICULARLY FOR THE
SOUTH SHORE AND THE APOSTLE ISLANDS. CONDITIONS WILL GRADUALLY
IMPROVE TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT. WINDS WILL BACK INTO THE
SOUTH ON MONDAY AND INCREASE ONCE AGAIN, AND CONDITIONS MAY
BECOME HAZARDOUS FOR SMALL CRAFT.
FOR THE OPEN WATER DISCUSSION, REFER TO THE NWS MARQUETTE AREA
FORECAST DISCUSSION AT WEATHER.GOV/MQT.
FIRE WEATHER
ISSUED AT 313 AM CDT SAT APR 18 2026
GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS ARE EXPECTED TODAY WITH GUSTS OF 25 TO 35
MPH. RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES WILL DIP INTO THE 25 TO 35
PERCENT RANGE THIS AFTERNOON. THE STRONGEST WINDS WILL BE FOUND
ALONG THE NORTH SHORE, DISPLACED FROM WHERE CONDITIONS WILL BE
DRIEST AROUND THE BRAINERD LAKES REGION THIS AFTERNOON. MUCH OF
THE AREA GOT A WETTING RAINFALL FRIDAY AFTERNOON, SO AM NOT AS
CONCERNED FOR TODAY. SOME AREAS MAY GET NEAR CRITICAL FIRE
WEATHER CONDITIONS FOR A FEW HOURS THIS AFTERNOON, BUT THIS
SHOULD BE LIMITED IN TIME AND AREA AFFECTED. SUNDAY WILL BE
QUITE DRY, WITH MINIMUM RH VALUES DROPPING INTO THE 20 TO 30
PERCENT RANGE OVER A LARGE PORTION OF THE AREA. WINDS WILL BE
MUCH LIGHTER REDUCING THOSE CONCERNS. MONDAY IS THE DAY WE ARE
MOST LIKELY TO SEE NEAR-CRITICAL OR EVEN CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER
CONDITIONS DUE TO A COMBINATION OF WARMING TEMPERATURES, LOW
HUMIDITY, AND GUSTY SOUTHERLY WINDS.
SEE THE FIRE WEATHER FORECAST PRODUCT FOR A MORE THOROUGH
BREAKDOWN OF FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS.
DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MN...NONE.
WI...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR LSZ121-
143-144-147-148.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 AM CDT SUNDAY FOR LSZ140>142-145-
146-150.
DISCUSSION...LE
AVIATION...LE
MARINE...LE
FIRE WEATHER...LE
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