483  
FXUS63 KDLH 150550  
AFDDLH  
 
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION  
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DULUTH MN  
1250 AM CDT TUE OCT 15 2024  
   
KEY MESSAGES
 
 
- SHOWERS OVER LAKE SUPERIOR AND ARROWHEAD WILL MOVE SOUTHWEST  
INTO NORTHWEST WISCONSIN AND LINGER ALONG THE SOUTH SHORE  
EARLY THIS MORNING.  
 
- MORE "CONVERSATIONAL" MIX/TRACE OF SNOW POSSIBLE WITH  
LINGERING SHOWERS TONIGHT.  
 
- DRY CONDITIONS AND NEAR CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS  
RETURN MID WEEK.  
 
- PRECIPITATION CHANCES FOR THIS WEEKEND CONTINUE TO DECREASE.  
 

 
   
DISCUSSION
 
 
ISSUED AT 157 PM CDT MON OCT 14 2024  
 
SHOWERS OVER THE ARROWHEAD AND WESTERN LAKE SUPERIOR BRINGING  
RAIN AND OCCASIONALLY SOME MIX ALONG THE SOUTH SHORE THIS  
AFTERNOON. SLIGHT CHANCES (20%) OF THUNDERSTORMS AND WATERSPOUTS  
THIS AFTERNOON SHOULD DECREASE LATER ON AS THE SUN BEGINS ITS  
DESCENT. SHOWERS, HOWEVER SHOULD LINGER ALONG THE NORTH AND SOUTH  
SHORE INTO TONIGHT ALONG A SURFACE BOUNDARY AND FUELED BY THE  
WARM LAKE SURFACE. ADDITIONAL ACCUMULATIONS WILL BE AROUND 0.3  
INCHES CLOSEST TO THE SHORE AND LESSER FURTHER INLAND. MIX AND  
LIGHT SNOW WILL MIX IN WITH THE RAIN FURTHER INLAND AS WELL  
TONIGHT AS LOW TEMPERATURES WILL BE SLIGHTLY BELOW 30. VERY  
LITTLE SNOWFALL ACCUMULATIONS ARE EXPECTED WITH A TRACE COVERING  
PATCHES IN THE GRASS BEING THE HIGHEST.  
 
THE COLD AIR MASS FROM THE LAST COUPLE DAYS WILL BEGIN TO MOVE  
EAST TUESDAY AS A QUICK MOVING SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE MOVES IN.  
THIS WILL LEAD TO THE RETURN OF DRY CONDITIONS AND SLIGHTLY  
INCREASING TEMPERATURES INTO THE LOWER 50S ACROSS THE AREA.  
 
DRY CONDITIONS WILL BECOME MORE OF A CONCERN WEDNESDAY AND  
THURSDAY AS A LARGE RIDGE MOVES INTO THE UPPER MIDWEST AND  
ADVECTS DRIER AIR AND STRONG SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT OVER THE  
NORTHLAND. NEAR CRITICAL TO CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS  
WILL LIKELY RETURN WITH RH BELOW 30 PERCENT AND WINDS INCREASING  
TO AROUND 20 MPH WEDNESDAY AND UP TO 30 MPH ON THURSDAY. THIS  
WILL NEED TO BE CLOSELY MONITORED FOR ANY FIRE HEADLINES IN THE  
NEXT COUPLE DAYS.  
 
THE RIDGE AXIS WILL MOVE EAST PAST OUR AREA BY FRIDAY, BUT THE  
MODELS ARE GETTING LESS AND LESS EXCITED ABOUT WIDESPREAD  
PRECIPITATION FOR THE WEEKEND AS THE MOISTURE AVAILABLE IN THE  
UPPER LEVELS DECREASES AND DRY CONDITIONS NEAR THE SURFACE  
LINGER. IT'S STARTING TO LOOK MORE LIKE VIRGA WITH SCATTERED  
LIGHT SHOWERS FOR THE WEEKEND. THE WARM AIR ADVECTION OUT OF THE  
SOUTHWEST WILL CONTINUE AND KEEP TEMPERATURES WELL ABOVE NORMAL  
INTO NEXT WEEK.  
 

 
   
AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY/
 
 
ISSUED AT 1250 AM CDT TUE OCT 15 2024  
 
LINGERING LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE BENEATH BUILDING UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE  
ALONG WITH LAKE-EFFECT CLOUDS AND SHOWERS WILL KEEP A FEW SITES  
BETWEEN SCT AND BKN EARLY THIS MORNING. WINDS ALOFT WILL BE  
BACKING THROUGH LATE THIS MORNING AND THE LAKE-EFFECT CLOUDS AND  
SHOWERS WILL DECREASE AS THE FETCH OVER THE WATER BECOMES  
SHORTER. HYR WILL SEE VCSH AND OCCASIONAL MVFR CEILINGS EARLY  
THIS MORNING. BRD, HIB, AND INL MAY SEE A VERY BRIEF PERIOD OF  
IFR VSBY AROUND 12Z. HAVE NOT MENTIONED THAT POTENTIAL WITH THIS  
FORECAST AS FORECAST MINIMUM RHS AND WIND SPEEDS ARE A BIT TOO  
HIGH. WILL REASSESS THROUGH THE PRE-DAWN HOURS. AS THE HIGH  
PRESSURE BECOMES BETTER ESTABLISHED AND DRIER AIR MOVES OVER THE  
REGION LATER TODAY, VFR WILL PREDOMINATE.  
 

 
   
MARINE /FOR NEAR SHORE WATERS OF WESTERN LAKE SUPERIOR/
 
 
ISSUED AT 157 PM CDT MON OCT 14 2024  
 
WINDS OUT OF THE NORTH TO NORTHEAST ARE CURRENTLY NOT MEETING  
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CRITERIA, BUT WILL LIKELY INCREASE  
THROUGHOUT THIS EVENING, AS THE WARM LAKE WATER IS ABLE TO  
MIX THE WINDS ALOFT DOWN TO THE SURFACE. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES  
ARE IN EFFECT UNTIL TUESDAY MORNING. WINDS WILL DECREASE  
TUESDAY NIGHT AS WINDS BACK TO THE SOUTHWEST, BUT WILL INCREASE  
AGAIN WEDNESDAY MORNING UNDER A TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT, LIKELY  
PROMPTING MORE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES. THURSDAY THESE CONDITIONS  
CONTINUE, WITH INCREASING CHANCES (30%) FOR GALES.  
 
FOR THE OPEN WATER DISCUSSION, REFER TO THE NWS MARQUETTE AREA  
FORECAST DISCUSSION AT WEATHER.GOV/MQT.  
 

 
   
DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
 
 
MN...NONE.  
WI...NONE.  
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM CDT THIS MORNING FOR LSZ121-  
140>148-150.  
 

 
 

 
 
DISCUSSION...KML  
AVIATION...HUYCK  
MARINE...KML  
 
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