373
FXUS63 KDLH 081813
AFDDLH
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DULUTH MN
113 PM CDT WED APR 8 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- LIGHT RAIN, SNOW, AND PATCHY FREEZING RAIN ARE POSSIBLE TODAY
WITH MINOR WINTRY ACCUMULATIONS POSSIBLE. SOME SNOW SQUALLS OR
THUNDERSTORMS MAY BE POSSIBLE THIS EVENING IN NORTH- CENTRAL MN.
- DAILY FREEZE/THAW IS EXPECTED TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY. TEMPERATURES
LIKELY TO REMAIN ABOVE FREEZING SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY.
- AREAS OF RAIN EXPECTED LATE THIS WEEKEND INTO NEXT WEEK. SOME
AREAS MAY SEE OVER AN INCH OF RAIN AND THIS COULD LEAD TO SOME
MINOR FLOODING, ESPECIALLY IN AREAS WHERE RAIN FALLS ON
REMAINING SNOWPACK.
UPDATE
ISSUED AT 255 AM CDT WED APR 8 2026
A WEAK DOUBLE BARRELED LOW IS MAKING ITS WAY ACROSS THE NORTHERN AND
CANADIAN PLAINS EARLY THIS MORNING, EXPECTED TO MOVE ACROSS OUR AREA
THROUGH THE DAY TODAY. WARM FRONTAL PRECIPITATION EARLY THIS MORNING
HAS BEEN EXTREMELY LIMITED BECAUSE THERE IS STILL SO MUCH DRY AIR AT
THE SURFACE. AS THE COLUMN MOISTENS, SOME SNOW AND LIGHT FREEZING
RAIN IS STILL POSSIBLE FOR THE BORDERLANDS, MN ARROWHEAD, AND NORTH-
CENTRAL WI THROUGH LATE THIS MORNING. A TRACE TO SEVERAL INCHES OF
SNOW MAY BE ABLE TO ACCUMULATE OVER PORTIONS OF KOOCHICHING,
NORTHERN ST. LOUIS, LAKE, AND COOK COUNTIES BY MIDDAY. HOWEVER,
WE'LL HAVE SOME HEALTHY WARM AIR ADVECTION TODAY BRINGING HIGHS INTO
THE UPPER 30S, 40S, AND LOW 50S. THIS SHOULD TURN OFF THE SNOW
ACCUMULATION AHEAD OF THE SYSTEM'S COLD FRONT. AS THAT FRONT PASSES
FROM LATE THIS MORNING THROUGH THE AFTERNOON, EXPECT MOSTLY LIGHT TO
MODERATE RAIN WITH A COUPLE SNOWFLAKES MIXING IN ACROSS THE MN
ARROWHEAD. A COUPLE HUNDREDTHS UP TO 0.25" OF RAIN ARE POSSIBLE.
AS THAT FRONT PASSES, SOME COLDER AIR ADVECTS IN ON THE BACKSIDE AND
BRINGS SOME LIGHT RAIN AND SNOW WEDNESDAY EVENING INTO VERY EARLY
THURSDAY MORNING. THIS PORTION OF THE SYSTEM COULD HAVE SOME DECENT
LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES AND POCKETS OF INSTABILITY WHICH MAY LEND
ITSELF TO MORE OF A CONVECTIVE SNOW SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM BEHAVIOR.
SOME QUICK REDUCTIONS IN VISIBILITY COULD BE POSSIBLE THIS EVENING
ALONG THE INTERNATIONAL BORDER WITH SNOW SQUALLS BUT WITH
TEMPERATURES NOT FALLING BACK BELOW FREEZING UNTIL LATE THIS
EVENING, ACCUMULATIONS MAY BE DIFFICULT TO PRODUCE. MID LEVEL DRY
AIR STARTS TO WRAP INTO THIS SYSTEM LATE WEDNESDAY EVENING WHICH MAY
ASSIST IN SHUTTING OFF PRECIPITATION.
FAIRLY QUIET WEATHER WITH TEMPERATURES WELL ABOVE FREEZING IN
THE AFTERNOONS ARE EXPECTED THURSDAY - MIDDAY SATURDAY.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 1249 PM CDT TUE APR 7 2026
FOR THE REST OF THE DAY, EXPECT SUNNY SKIES AND TEMPERATURES
INTO THE UPPER 30S AND 40S ACROSS THE NORTHLAND. HIGH PRESSURE
IS PROVIDING A BRIEF RESPITE BEFORE OUR NEXT SYSTEM APPROACHES
FROM THE WEST. CLOUDS WILL BEGIN TO THICKEN TONIGHT AS A WARM
FRONT LIFTS INTO THE REGION. PRECIPITATION WILL DEVELOP AFTER
MIDNIGHT, INITIALLY FIGHTING DRY AIR AT THE SURFACE. AS THE
COLUMN SATURATES, A WINTRY MIX IS EXPECTED TO OVERSPREAD THE
AREA. A WARM NOSE ALOFT WILL CREATE THE POTENTIAL FOR FREEZING
RAIN, AND A GLAZE OF ICE REMAINS POSSIBLE BY WEDNESDAY MORNING,
PRIMARILY ACROSS OUR EASTERN ZONES IN NORTHWEST WISCONSIN AND
THE ARROWHEAD. ADDITIONALLY, THE NORTH SHORE COULD SEE SOME
ENHANCED SNOWFALL WEDNESDAY MORNING FROM LAKE AND TERRAIN
EFFECTS, TOTALING UP TO 2 INCHES BY NOON. OTHER BORDERLAND
LOCATIONS WILL GENERALLY SEE LESS THAN AN INCH.
ALSO THROUGHOUT WEDNESDAY, AN ADVANCING COLD FRONT WILL SWEEP
ACROSS THE AREA. WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES PUSHING INTO THE 40S AND
MID 50S, MORNING MIXED PRECIPITATION WILL LARGELY TRANSITION TO
SCATTERED RAIN SHOWERS FOR THE AFTERNOON. MOST WILL SEE
PRECIPITATION END BY LATE AFTERNOON, BUT A SECOND ROUND OF
PRECIPITATION INCLUDING SNOW, RAIN, AND ICE PELLETS IS POSSIBLE
TOMORROW EVENING ACROSS THE NORTHERN IRON RANGE AND BORDERLANDS.
THIS ACTIVITY WILL BE DRIVEN BY A BACKDOOR COLD FRONT SLIDING
SOUTH, AND THERE IS EVEN ENOUGH INSTABILITY THAT A RUMBLE OF
THUNDER OR TWO AND CONVECTIVE, HEAVY PRECIPITATION CANNOT BE
RULED OUT.
MOVING INTO THURSDAY, CONTINUED COLD AIR ADVECTION ON NORTHWEST
FLOW WILL BRING ADDITIONAL LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS, PARTICULARLY
LINGERING OVER THE ARROWHEAD REGION. FURTHER SOUTH, A TROUGH
DIPPING INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS WILL PUSH AN ASSOCIATED FRONT
ACROSS THE MIDWEST. THIS FEATURE COULD REACH FAR ENOUGH NORTH TO
BRING SOME LIGHT MIXED PRECIPITATION TO CENTRAL MINNESOTA AND
WISCONSIN, THOUGH VERY LITTLE ACCUMULATION, IF ANY, IS EXPECTED
FROM THIS SOUTHERN STREAM SYSTEM.
A MAJOR PATTERN SHIFT ARRIVES FOR THE WEEKEND AS BROAD RIDGING
BUILDS ACROSS THE CENTRAL UNITED STATES. THIS WILL KICK OFF A
SIGNIFICANT WARMING TREND, WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES SOARING INTO THE
50S AND 60S ACROSS THE NORTHLAND. WHILE THE WARMER WEATHER WILL BE
WELCOME, IT WILL INITIATE A RAPID MELTING OF THE REMAINING SNOWPACK.
SIMULTANEOUSLY, A DEEP CONVEYOR BELT OF MOISTURE WILL SURGE
NORTHWARD FROM THE SOUTHERN PLAINS INTO THE UPPER MIDWEST,
SETTING THE STAGE FOR A VERY WET PERIOD.
THIS EFFICIENT RAINFALL SETUP WILL TARGET OUR REGION FROM SUNDAY
INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK, WITH THE HEAVIEST AXIS CURRENTLY APPEARING TO
FAVOR NORTHWEST WISCONSIN. RAIN TOTALS OVER AN INCH ARE CERTAINLY
POSSIBLE. GIVEN THE COMBINATION OF THIS INCOMING HEAVY RAINFALL
AND THE ONGOING SNOWMELT, THERE IS AN INCREASING RISK FOR LOCALIZED
FLOODING AND RAPID RIVER RISES. WE WILL BE MONITORING HYDROLOGIC
CONDITIONS CLOSELY THROUGHOUT THE WEEK. FINALLY, THIS RAINY PERIOD
WILL COME TO AN END WITH THE PASSAGE OF A CLIPPER SYSTEM ACROSS
THE NORTHERN PLAINS NEXT WEEK. THIS WILL USHER IN COLDER AIR AND
BRING MORE SNOW ON THE BACKSIDE OF THE SYSTEM, THOUGH EXACT AMOUNTS
REMAIN HIGHLY UNCERTAIN AT THIS RANGE.
AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY/
ISSUED AT 113 PM CDT WED APR 8 2026
CONDITIONS ARE GENERALLY MVFR TO LIFR ACROSS NORTHEASTERN
MINNESOTA WITH VFR CONDITIONS ACROSS NORTHWESTERN WISCONSIN
EARLY THIS AFTERNOON. A COLD FRONT IS MOVING SLOWER THAN
EXPECTED ACROSS THE NORTHLAND THIS AFTERNOON. THIS AREA OF RAIN,
SNOW, AND MIX IS AFFECTING MUCH OF NORTHEASTERN MINNESOTA
CURRENTLY AND IS SLOWLY MOVING TO THE EAST. THIS BAND OF
PRECIPITATION WILL SLOWLY DIMINISH AS IT PUSHES EAST, BUT THERE
MAY BE SOME ADDITIONAL DEVELOPMENT AHEAD OF IT ACROSS
NORTHWESTERN WISCONSIN. THIS MAY LEAD TO MVFR OR LOWER
CONDITIONS THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. BEHIND THE COLD FRONT,
CONVECTIVE RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS WILL BE SEEN LATER THIS AFTERNOON
AND EVENING ACROSS NORTHEASTERN MINNESOTA. MUCH UNCERTAINTY
REMAINS AS TO WHETHER THESE WILL BE RAIN OR SNOW PRIMARILY,
WHICH WILL DRIVE VISIBILITY RESTRICTIONS. SNOW WOULD LEAD TO IFR
OR LOWER VSBYS. THIS ACTIVITY TAPERS OFF THIS EVENING. SOME
IMPROVEMENT IN CEILINGS IS EXPECTED OVERNIGHT BEFORE FALLING TO
MVFR OR LOWER AROUND DAYBREAK THURSDAY. WINDS ARE SLOW TO
INCREASE ACROSS MINNESOTA, BUT ARE EXPECTED TO RAMP UP IN THE
WAKE OF THE FRONT.
MARINE /FOR NEARSHORE WATERS OF WESTERN LAKE SUPERIOR/
ISSUED AT 255 AM CDT WED APR 8 2026
SOUTHERLY WINDS PICK UP TODAY. WITH THE WARM AIR COMING IN FROM THIS
SOUTHERLY FLOW, THERE IS SOME UNCERTAINTY ON JUST HOW MUCH OF THE
BREEZE WILL GET DOWN TO THE SURFACE OF THE LAKE WEDNESDAY, BUT SOME
AREAS COULD SEE GUSTS 20-25 KNOTS AND WAVES OF 1-4 FT. THE MOST
LIKELY PLACES FOR THIS ARE IN THE OUTER APOSTLE ISLANDS AND ALONG
THE NORTH SHORE FROM GRAND MARAIS TO GRAND PORTAGE WHERE SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORIES ARE IN EFFECT. SOME MIXED PRECIPITATION IS POSSIBLE
THROUGH THE DAY. INTO THURSDAY, WINDS TURN TO BECOME SOUTHWESTERLY
AND STRENGTHEN. WIDESPREAD 20 KNOT WINDS WITH GUSTS OF 25-30 KNOTS
ARE EXPECTED AND ADDITIONAL SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES HAVE BEEN ISSUED.
WINDS SHOULD QUIET LATE THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY.
FOR THE OPEN WATER DISCUSSION, REFER TO THE NWS MARQUETTE AREA
FORECAST DISCUSSION AT WEATHER.GOV/MQT.
FIRE WEATHER
ISSUED AT 255 AM CDT WED APR 8 2026
MIXED PRECIPITATION MOVES INTO THE REGION TODAY WITH SOME RAIN,
SNOW, AND LIGHT FREEZING RAIN POSSIBLE. THE GREATEST PRECIPITATION
ACCUMULATIONS OF 0.1-0.4" ARE EXPECTED NORTH OF HWY 2 IN NE MN AND
EAST OF HWY 53 IN NW WI. GUSTY SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST WINDS 20-30MPH ARE
EXPECTED THROUGH THE DAY TODAY WITH THIS PRECIPITATION. THURSDAY AND
FRIDAY WILL LIKELY BE ON THE DRY SIDE AS WELL WITH WARMING AFTERNOON
TEMPERATURES INTO THE 40S AND 50S AND MINIMUM RH DROPPING INTO THE
25-45% RANGE. SUNDAY INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK, WIDESPREAD RAIN IS
POSSIBLE.
SEE THE FIRE WEATHER FORECAST PRODUCT FOR A MORE THOROUGH
BREAKDOWN OF FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS.
HYDROLOGY
ISSUED AT 644 AM CDT WED APR 8 2026
THROUGH THE REST OF THIS WEEK AND INTO THE WEEKEND, DAILY
TEMPERATURES RISING WELL ABOVE FREEZING ARE LIKELY TO GET SNOW
TRANSFORMATION AND MELT STARTED ONCE AGAIN ACROSS THE NORTHLAND. THE
SNOWPACK ACROSS MUCH OF NORTH-CENTRAL MN, THE BRAINERD LAKES, I-35
CORRIDOR, AND SOUTHERN TIER OF WI COUNTIES IN OUR CWA IS FAIRLY
MINIMAL (LESS THAN 5" IN DEPTH AND 0.5-1.5" OF SWE) AND SEEMS LIKELY
TO MELT DOWN TO MOSTLY BARE GROUND BY SATURDAY. THE DAILY OVERNIGHT
RETURN TO BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES SHOULD HELP TO MAKE FOR A
STEADY, CONTROLLED MELT THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING ACROSS THE ENTIRE
AREA. THIS WILL CAUSE SOME INJECTION OF LIFE BACK INTO OUR AREA
WATERWAYS, BUT IS NOT EXPECTED TO LEAD TO ANY FLOODING ISSUES.
COME SATURDAY, AN EXTENDED PERIOD OF ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES WITH
HIGHS AND LOWS ABOVE FREEZING IS EXPECTED TO BEGIN AND CONTINUE
THROUGH EARLY TUESDAY MORNING. THIS SHOULD KICK OFF 24/7 SNOW MELT.
AREAS OF RAIN ARRIVE INTO SUNDAY MORNING AND SEVERAL WAVES OF RAIN
CROSS THE AREA THROUGH MONDAY EVENING. CURRENT ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE
SHOWS MOST OF THE AREA ALONG A LINE FROM AITKIN TO ELY AND SOUTHEAST
WITH A 50-90% CHANCE OF RECEIVING AN INCH OR MORE OF RAIN IN THIS
PERIOD, WITH LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS OF 2"+ POSSIBLE IN NW WI. RATES
THEMSELVES ARE UNLIKELY AT THIS POINT TO LEAD TO CLASSIC OVERLAND
FLOODING OR FLASH FLOODING. WHERE THIS RAIN IS COMBINED WITH
SNOWMELT THERE ARE AREAL AND RIVERINE FLOODING CONCERNS. BY THIS
WEEKEND, IT SEEMS MOST LIKELY THAT THE ONLY AREAS WITH REMAINING
SNOWPACK WOULD BE THOSE ALONG THE NORTH AND SOUTH SHORES WHERE SNOW
DEPTH IS STILL 8-30" WITH 2-8" OF SWE TODAY. WHILE SOME OF THAT SWE
IS EXPECTED TO MELT OUT BY SATURDAY, THERE WILL LIKELY BE PLENTY
LEFT BY THE TIME RAIN BEGINS. CURRENT PROBABILISTIC GUIDANCE SHOWS
THE POTENTIAL FOR SEVERAL RIVER FORECAST POINTS TO EXCEED THEIR
ACTION OR MINOR FLOOD STAGES ON THE KNIFE, NEMADJI, AND BAD RIVERS.
THERE IS A SMALL CHANCE THAT THE TYLER FORKS RIVER MAY CREST INTO
ITS MODERATE FLOOD STAGE WHICH LEADS TO IMPACTS ALONG HIGHWAY 169
NORTHEAST OF MELLEN. ALONG THE NORTH SHORE ONSHORE WINDS COULD LEAD
TO ENHANCED PRECIPITATION TOTALS AND THE SOUTH SHORE MAY BE CLOSER
TO THE HIGHER SYNOPTIC RAINFALL AMOUNTS - SO BOTH AREAS OF REMAINING
SNOWPACK COULD ALSO BE UNDER SLIGHTLY HIGHER AMOUNTS OF RAIN.
INTERESTS ALONG THE NORTH AND SOUTH SHORE SHOULD HEED LATEST
FORECASTS AND BE PREPARED FOR POSSIBLE MINOR FLOODING EARLY NEXT
WEEK.
DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MN...NONE.
WI...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 1 AM TO 10 AM CDT THURSDAY FOR
LSZ121-141>145-148.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 PM CDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR LSZ140-
148.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 1 AM TO 1 PM CDT THURSDAY FOR LSZ140.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 11 PM THIS EVENING TO 1 PM CDT
THURSDAY FOR LSZ146-147-150.
UPDATE...LEVENS
DISCUSSION...KML
AVIATION...BJH
MARINE...LEVENS
FIRE WEATHER...LEVENS
HYDROLOGY...LEVENS
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