289
FXUS63 KDLH 080001
AFDDLH
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DULUTH MN
701 PM CDT THU MAY 7 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- A FEW SHOWERS OF RAIN/SNOW ARE POSSIBLE TODAY.
- DRY WEATHER WITH NEAR-CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE
POSSIBLE FRIDAY.
- SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE FRIDAY NIGHT (30-50% CHANCE) AND RAIN AND
A FEW THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY
(30-50% CHANCE).
- THE COOL AND QUIET WEATHER PATTERN WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE
WEEKEND, THEN TEMPERATURES WARM UP NEXT WEEK.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 200 PM CDT THU MAY 7 2026
CURRENT CONDITIONS/TODAY:
COOLER THAN NORMAL TEMPERATURES CONTINUE TO PREVAIL ACROSS THE
NORTHLAND TODAY AS WE REMAIN LOCKED INTO NORTHWEST FLOW. INCREASING
CLOUD COVER WITH CYCLONIC CHURNING ALOFT WILL KEEP OUR
TEMPERATURES IN THE LOW 50S AND UPPER 40S. A SHORTWAVE IS ALSO
EVIDENT ON SATELLITE THIS AFTERNOON MOVING ACROSS NORTHERN MN.
THIS FEATURE IS PROVIDING A SMALL BOOST IN COMBINATION WITH
DIURNAL HEATING TO PRODUCE SOME SCATTERED SHOWERS. THIS ACTIVITY
WILL DIMINISH LATER THIS EVENING. THE BRAINERD LAKE REGION IS
SEEING SOME SLIGHTLY WINDIER CONDITIONS AND WHEN PAIRED WITH RHS
HOVERING AROUND 25% WE HAVE OPTED TO PUT AN SPS OUT FOR NEAR
CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS THROUGH THE AFTERNOON.
FRIDAY:
EARLY FRIDAY MORNING A SURFACE LOW WILL BE DROPPING SOUTHEAST OUT OF
MANITOBA. A WARM FRONT WILL ARC ACROSS NORTHERN MN LEADING TO
MORE WESTERLY FLOW AND A SLIGHT BUMP IN TEMPERATURES. HIGHS WILL
BE ABLE TO CLIMB INTO THE 60S WITH UPPER 50S ACROSS NORTHERN
MN. STILL EXPECTING AN INFLUX OF CLOUD COVER THROUGH THE DAY
AGAIN BUT SURFACE DEWPOINTS SHOULD DRY A BIT MORE AS MIXING UP
TO 8K FT SEEMS REASONABLE LOOKING THROUGH SEVERAL MODEL
SOUNDINGS. ADDITIONALLY, CAN'T RULE OUT SOME ISOLATED SHOWERS
AND SPRINKLES ACROSS NORTHERN MN AND INTO NW WI AS ISENTROPIC
FORCING FOR ASCENT WILL BE IN PLACE. OVERALL, PRETTY SIMILAR TO
WHAT WE ARE SEEING TODAY.
WEEKEND:
THE AFOREMENTIONED LOW PRESSURE DIVES SOUTHEAST FRIDAY NIGHT CAUSING
A COLD FRONT TO SAG SOUTH AND USHERING IN SOME COOLER NORTHWEST
WINDS TO INHABIT THE REGION ONCE AGAIN. AS THE LOW SINKS SOUTHEAST
IT WILL SPAWN SOME LIGHT RAIN WITH IT MOVING THROUGH THE BRAINERD
LAKES REGION IN THE MORNING AND INTO NW WI FOR THE EARLY AFTERNOON
HOURS. THE BETTER FORCING MOVES OFF TO THE SOUTHEAST BY THE
AFTERNOON HOURS BUT CYCLONIC CHURNING AND REMNANT MOISTURE WILL
SUPPORT SOME ISOLATED SHOWERS UNTIL SUNSET.
NOT MUCH CHANGE FOR SUNDAY. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE DOES NUDGE IN FROM
THE NORTHWEST. CYCLONIC FLOW ALOFT CONTINUES WITHIN OUR NORTHWEST
MERIDIONAL PATTERN. DIURNAL CUMULUS WILL POPULATE IN THE
AFTERNOON BUT WITH THE SUBSIDENCE IN PLACE PAIRED WITH DRY LOW
LEVELS WE DON'T EXPECT ANY PRECIPITATION. SOME VIRGA MAY LEAD TO
AN OCCASIONAL BURST OF WIND. MINIMUM RHS WILL START TO BOTTOM
OUT WHICH MAY PROMPT SOME ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS.
NEXT WORK WEEK:
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE MOVES OVERHEAD ON MONDAY LEADING TO A VERY
SUNNY DAY. THIS LOOKS TO BE THE DRIEST DAY IN TERMS OF MIN RHS WHICH
COULD FALL TO LESS THAN 20%. FORTUNATELY, WITH THE PLACEMENT OF
THE HIGH PRESSURE WIND SPEEDS WILL REMAIN ON THE LOW SIDE. HIGH
TEMPERATURES WILL ALSO REBOUND NICELY BACK INTO THE 60S AND
UPPER 50S.
TUESDAY WILL SPORT A PATTERN CHANGE AS AN UPPER LEVEL LOW EJECTS OUT
OF THE CANADIAN PRAIRIES. THIS WILL LEAD TO A SURFACE LOW
SPAWNING SOMEWHERE IN THE UPPER MIDWEST WITH ENSEMBLE LOW
CLUSTERS SUGGESTING AROUND LAKE OF THE WOODS AND A SECONDARY LOW
POSSIBLE OVER SOUTHERN MN. THIS SET UP WILL HELP TO DRAW IN
SOME WARMER TEMPERATURES AND INTRODUCE SOME PW FOR THE PACIFIC
NORTHWEST. NBM POP TRENDS ARE INCREASING FOR TUESDAY MORNING AND
ARE NOW UP TO AROUND 40-50%. TIMING WILL STILL NEED TO BE
REFINED AS LOCATION OF THE LOW PRESSURES REMAIN IN FLUX. AT THIS
TIME SEVERE WEATHER DOES NOT LOOK LIKELY.
WARMER WEATHER IS ON THE BOARD FOR THE LATTER HALF OF THE WORK WEEK
AS OUR 850MB TEMPERATURES START TO CLIMB. THE COOLER CANADIAN AIR IS
EXPECTED TO STAY FARTHER NORTH WHICH WILL ALLOW MOST OF THE
REGION TO CLIMB INTO THE 70S ON THURSDAY. WE WILL STILL HAVE THE
CLASSIC COOLER BY THE LAKE SET UP WHERE TEMPERATURES NEAR LAKE
SUPERIOR WILL BE 10-15F COOLER.
AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SATURDAY/
ISSUED AT 700 PM CDT THU MAY 7 2026
VFR CONDITIONS PREVAIL THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD. FEW TO BKN
VFR CLOUDS WILL CLEAR OUT THIS EVENING FROM NW TO SE ACROSS THE
REGION AS A SHORTWAVE OVERHEAD DEPARTS AND WE LOSE DAYTIME
HEATING. CAN'T RULE OUT A FEW LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS/SPRINKLES IN
EAST-CENTRAL MINNESOTA AND NORTHWEST WISCONSIN FOR A FEW MORE
HOURS THIS EVENING AS THIS SYSTEM DEPARTS. GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS
ALSO TAPER OFF BY MID TO LATE THIS EVENING AS DAYTIME MIXING
ENDS. A FEW ADDITIONAL RAIN SHOWERS AND SPRINKLES ARE POSSIBLE
AGAIN FRIDAY AFTERNOON INTO EVENING AS ANOTHER SYSTEM PUSHES
THROUGH DURING THE PERIOD OF DAYTIME HEATING. LITTLE IN THE WAY
OF ADDITIONAL ACCUMULATIONS EXPECTED. WINDS ALSO PICK UP OUT OF
THE WEST TO NORTHWEST FOR DAYTIME FRIDAY WITH DEEP LOW-LEVEL
MIXING.
MARINE /FOR NEARSHORE WATERS OF WESTERN LAKE SUPERIOR/
ISSUED AT 200 PM CDT THU MAY 7 2026
SOUTHWEST WINDS AROUND 10 TO 15 KNOTS CONTINUE UNTIL A COLD FRONT
MOVES THROUGH LATE FRIDAY LEADING TO A WIND SHIFT OUT OF THE
NORTHWEST. ISOLATED TO SCATTERED LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE
MAINLY DURING THE DAY LIGHT HOURS. NO HAZARDOUS CONDITIONS EXPECTED
AT THIS TIME.
FOR THE OPEN WATER DISCUSSION, REFER TO THE NWS MARQUETTE AREA
FORECAST DISCUSSION AT WEATHER.GOV/MQT.
FIRE WEATHER
ISSUED AT 200 PM CDT THU MAY 7 2026
NORTHWEST FLOW REGIME CONTINUES FOR THE REGION WITH ISOLATED AREAS
SEEING SOME LIGHT RAIN TO SPRINKLES AT TIMES. AN AREA OF DRIER AND
SLIGHTLY GUSTIER WINDS HAVE DEVELOPED NEAR THE BRAINERD LAKES REGION
PROMPTING AN SPS FOR NEAR CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS.
TOMORROW IS FAIRLY SIMILAR TO TODAY WITH SOME ISOLATED SHOWERS
POSSIBLE ONCE AGAIN, PRIMARILY IN THE ARROWHEAD AND NORTHWEST WI.
MODEL SOUNDINGS WOULD SUGGEST SOME DRIER CONDITIONS WILL BE
POSSIBLE WITH MORE WIDESPREAD SUB 25% RHS LIKELY ACROSS NORTH
CENTRAL MN INTO NW WI. WIND GUSTS OF AROUND 20-25 MPH WILL BE
POSSIBLE WITH ANOTHER SPS LIKELY NEEDED FOR NEAR CRITICAL FIRE
WEATHER CONDITIONS.
A LOW PRESSURE MOVING OUT OF THE RED RIVER VALLEY WILL HELP TO
PROMOTE SOME RAIN SHOWERS IN THE BRAINERD LAKES REGION SATURDAY
MORNING AND INTO NW WI IN THE AFTERNOON. HOWEVER DRY CONDITIONS
RETURN SUNDAY AND ESPECIALLY MONDAY.
SEE THE FIRE WEATHER FORECAST PRODUCT FOR A MORE THOROUGH
BREAKDOWN OF FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS.
DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MN...NONE.
WI...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
DISCUSSION...BRITT
AVIATION...ROTHSTEIN
MARINE...BRITT
FIRE WEATHER...BRITT
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