335
FXUS63 KDLH 111119
AFDDLH
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DULUTH MN
619 AM CDT WED MAR 11 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- CONFIDENCE IS INCREASING IN A STRONG, QUICK-HITTING CLIPPER
SYSTEM IMPACTING THE NORTHLAND THURSDAY AFTERNOON INTO FRIDAY
MORNING. EXPECT ACCUMULATING SNOW, STRONG WINDS, AND BLOWING
SNOW.
- ANOTHER STRONG STORM MAY AFFECT PARTS OF THE NORTHLAND
SATURDAY AND SUNDAY, WITH THE HIGHEST SNOWFALL TOTALS OVER
PORTIONS OF NORTHWEST WISCONSIN
- A DIURNAL FREEZE/THAW WILL LIKELY OCCUR THROUGH LATE WEEK AND
THEN TEMPERATURES REMAIN BELOW FREEZING FOR SEVERAL DAYS EARLY
NEXT WEEK.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 428 AM CDT WED MAR 11 2026
TODAY-TONIGHT: THIS MORNING, A BAND OF LIGHT SNOW STRETCHES
NORTHEAST TO SOUTHWEST THROUGH THE NORTHLAND THIS MORNING, WITH
SNOWFALL ALONG THE IMMEDIATE NORTH SHORE BACK TO THE MILLE LACS
REGION, AND EASTWARD THROUGH NORTHWEST WISCONSIN. BASED ON
SNOWFALL RATES AND ENHANCED BANDING, PINE COUNTY WAS ADDED TO
THE WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY, AS TOTALS AROUND 3 INCHES ARE
POSSIBLE SLIGHTLY FURTHER WEST THAN PREVIOUSLY EXPECTED. WITH
THE BACK EDGE OF THE SNOW BAND MOVING SLOWLY EASTWARD, THERE
COULD STILL BE LIGHT SNOW FALLING AT THE START OF THE MORNING
COMMUTE ALONG THE I-35 CORRIDOR. SNOW CONTINUES TO PULL EASTWARD
THROUGH THE MORNING, WITH PRECIPITATION ENDING ACROSS NORTHWEST
WI BY MID DAY.
THIS AFTERNOON STARTS A 18-24HR PERIOD OF DRIER CONDITIONS, AS
THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AXIS SHIFTS EAST OF THE AREA AND A
SURFACE RIDGE STRETCHES SOUTHWARD INTO THE RED RIVER VALLEY
FROM HUDSON BAY. THIS RIDGE BRINGS DRIER AIR AND LIGHT WINDS
TONIGHT. WILL SEE LOW TEMPERATURES TONIGHT FALL INTO THE SINGLE
DIGITS NORTH OF THE IRON RANGE AND TEENS ELSEWHERE.
THURSDAY-FRIDAY: A POTENT, QUICK-HITTING CLIPPER SYSTEM WILL
PASS THROUGH THE REGION THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY, BRINGING
SIGNIFICANT SNOWFALL TO MOST OF THE NORTHLAND. THERE REMAINS
SLIGHT TRACK AND TIMING DIFFERENCES AMONGST MODEL SOLUTIONS, BUT
GENERALLY, THE CENTER OF THE SURFACE LOW WILL TRACK FROM NEAR
GRAND FORKS TO THE BRAINERD LAKES REGION TO HAYWARD THURSDAY
NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING. UPPER LEVEL DYNAMICS AND FORCING
ARE NOT IN QUESTION WITH THIS SYSTEM. WITH THE ARRIVAL OF STEEP
LAPSE RATES UNDER THE UPPER TROUGH, STRONG FGEN, AND DEEP
MOISTURE AROUND THE EAST AND NORTH SIDES OF THE SYSTEM, A HEAVY
SNOWBAND IS EXPECTED TO IMPACT THE AREA. WE CONTINUE TO SHOW THE
GREATEST SNOW AMOUNTS NEAR AND NORTH OF THE US-2 CORRIDOR IN MN
AND WEST OF US-53 IN WI. ADDITIONALLY, STRONG SOUTHEAST TO EAST
WINDS ACROSS WESTERN LAKE SUPERIOR WILL ALLOW FOR SIGNIFICANT
LAKE ENHANCED SNOWFALL ALONG THE NORTH SHORE. STRONG PRESSURE
GRADIENT WINDS COULD LEAD TO BLOWING SNOW, ESPECIALLY THURSDAY
NIGHT. WIND/VISIBILITY PROBABILITIES SUGGEST THERE IS A NON-
ZERO CHANCE OF MEETING BLIZZARD CRITERIA, ON A LOCAL-SCALE,
THURSDAY EVENING AS STRONG WIND GUSTS AND HEAVY SNOWFALL REDUCE
VISIBILITIES.
WHERE ARE WE LOOKING FOR UNCERTAINTY AND WHAT COULD IMPACT
PRECIPITATION TYPES AND AMOUNTS? THE DRY AIR THAT ARRIVES TODAY WILL
REMAIN OVER THE AREA THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING, AND EXPECT PROFILES
TO MOISTEN DOWNWARD THROUGH THE DAY. FORECAST SOUNDINGS SUGGEST A
DRY LAYER AROUND 850MB HANGING ON INTO THE AFTERNOON THAT WILL NEED
TO ERODE BEFORE PRECIPITATION MAKES IT TO THE GROUND. WOULD NOT RULE
OUT LIGHT PRECIPITATION BEGINNING AS EARLY AS MIDDAY ACROSS THE
WEST, SPREADING EASTWARD THROUGH THE AFTERNOON, AND INTENSIFYING AS
THE COLUMN SATURATES.
ANY SLIGHT CHANGE IN LOW TRACK COULD GREATLY AFFECT IMPACTS FOR THE
NORTHLAND. GIVEN THE STRENGTH OF THE SURFACE LOW, SOUTHERLY WINDS
WILL PUSH A WARM SECTOR NORTHWARD INTO CENTRAL MN, WHICH COULD LEAD
TO A RAIN/SNOW MIX ACROSS THE SOUTHERN EXTENT OF THE FORECAST AREA
THURSDAY AFTERNOON. THIS SYSTEM COULD BE MOVING SO QUICKLY THAT THE
WARM NOSE DOES NOT HAVE A CHANCE TO ADVECT FURTHER NORTHWARD, BUT
ANY SLIGHT NORTHWARD CHANGE IN THE TRACK COULD PULL THAT WARM SECTOR
FURTHER INTO THE NORTHLAND. THIS WOULD CURB SNOW TOTALS ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN PORTION OF THE FORECAST AREA. FOR NOW WILL CARRY A
RAIN/SNOW MIX IN AN AREA FROM BRAINERD TO PHILLIPS, WITH A CHANGE TO
ALL SNOW THURSDAY EVENING FROM WEST TO EAST.
OVERALL CONFIDENCE HAS INCREASED IN THE NEED FOR WINTER STORM
ADVISORIES AND WARNINGS BEGINNING THURSDAY AFTERNOON. WITH CURRENT
HEADLINES RUNNING THROUGH MID DAY, WILL HOLD OFF ON ADDITIONAL AND
OVERLAPPING PRODUCTS. EXPECT NEW HEADLINES TO COME OUT LATER THIS
MORNING.
WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK: NOT MUCH CHANGE IN THE WEEKEND
SYSTEM THIS MORNING, AS MODELS CONTINUE TO STRUGGLE WITH WHERE
THE SYSTEM TRACKS OUT OF THE CENTRAL PLAINS. A MORE NORTHERN
TRACK WOULD BRING SNOWFALL BACK TO THE NORTHLAND LATE SATURDAY
INTO SUNDAY. A MORE SOUTHERN TRACK, AND DRIER AIR REMAINING OVER
THE AREA, COULD MEAN NO MEANINGFUL PRECIPITATION AT ALL.
GUIDANCE DOES AGREE THAT COLD AIR WILL ADVECT SOUTHWARD BEHIND
THE SUNDAY SYSTEM, PULLING THE REGION BACK INTO THE DEEP FREEZE.
HIGH TEMPERATURES ARE LIKELY TO REMAIN BELOW FREEZING FOR
SEVERAL DAYS TO BEGIN NEXT WEEK, WITH LOWS IN THE SINGLE DIGITS
BELOW ZERO TO THE SINGLE DIGITS ABOVE ZERO MONDAY AND TUESDAY
MORNINGS. WIND CHILLS COULD BE AS LOW AS -10F TO -20F MONDAY
MORNING.
AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY/
ISSUED AT 559 AM CDT WED MAR 11 2026
A WAVE OF SNOW STILL LINGERS OVER NW WI BUT IS EXPECTED TO EXIT
BY LATE MORNING. SATELLITE SHOWS CLEAR SKIES ON THE BACKSIDE OF
THIS EXITING SYSTEM WITH WIDESPREAD VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED
THROUGHOUT THE DAY. NORTHERLY WINDS WILL BACK SLIGHTLY TO THE
NORTHWEST TODAY WITH A FEW GUSTS IN THE UPPER TEENS. THIS WINDS
WILL CALM THIS EVENING AS HIGH PRESSURE MAKES A BRIEF APPEARANCE
IN THE REGION.
MARINE /FOR NEARSHORE WATERS OF WESTERN LAKE SUPERIOR/
ISSUED AT 428 AM CDT WED MAR 11 2026
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES REMAIN IN EFFECT FOR LINGERING WAVE
HEIGHTS GREATER THAN 4 FT, FOR THE OUTER APOSTLE ISLANDS AND
TOWARDS SAXON HARBOR. WINDS BECOME LIGHTER THROUGH THURSDAY
AFTERNOON WHEN ANOTHER CLIPPER SYSTEM MOVES IN. STRONG WINDS ARE
EXPECTED WITH THIS CLIPPER. CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO BE
HAZARDOUS FOR SMALL CRAFT FOR ALL NEARSHORE WATERS INTO FRIDAY
MORNING, WITH A 40 TO 50 PERCENT CHANCE OF GALES FOR PARTS OF
THE NORTH SHORE THURSDAY NIGHT.
FOR THE OPEN WATER DISCUSSION, REFER TO THE NWS MARQUETTE AREA
FORECAST DISCUSSION AT WEATHER.GOV/MQT.
DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MN...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 1 PM CDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR
MNZ038.
WI...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 1 PM CDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR
WIZ001-002-006>008.
WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 1 PM CDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR WIZ003-
004-009.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 1 PM CDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR LSZ148-
150.
DISCUSSION...HA
AVIATION...BRITT
MARINE...HA
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