873
FXUS63 KDLH 021053
AFDDLH
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DULUTH MN
553 AM CDT THU APR 2 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- STORM SYSTEM NUMBER 1 IS ARRIVING FROM THE SOUTH THIS MORNING
AND BRINGS A MIX OF RAIN, SNOW, FREEZING RAIN, AND SLEET TO
THE NORTHLAND THROUGH TONIGHT. STRONG WINDS OFF LAKE SUPERIOR
WILL LEAD TO BLOWING SNOW AND REDUCED VISIBILITIES.
- STORM SYSTEM NUMBER 2 ARRIVES FRIDAY AND WILL IMPACT THE
REGION INTO SATURDAY WITH RAIN, SNOW, FREEZING RAIN, AND
SLEET. WIDESPREAD TRAVEL IMPACTS ARE EXPECTED WITH BOTH
SYSTEMS.
- THE PATTERN REMAINS ACTIVE WITH A CLIPPER MOVING IN FROM THE
NORTH LATE SUNDAY AND POTENTIAL FOR SNOW SQUALLS ON MONDAY.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 237 AM CDT THU APR 2 2026
WINTER STORM TODAY:
WE ARE IN THE EARLY STAGES OF OUR 1ST ROUND OF WINTER STORMS. AN
UPPER LEVEL WAVE IS MOVING OFF OF THE ROCKIES THIS MORNING SPAWNING
A SURFACE LOW IN THE CENTRAL PLAINS. DESPITE STILL BEING QUITE A
FAIR DISTANCE AWAY WE ARE ALREADY SEEING ITS INFLUENCE ON THE
NORTHLAND. A BROAD AREA OF ISENTROPIC ASCENT OUT AHEAD OF THIS
SYSTEM IS LEADING TO SNOWFALL ACROSS SOUTHERN AND CENTRAL MN. RADAR
SHOWS THIS ACTIVITY SLOWLY MIGRATING NORTH AND WILL ROTATE THROUGH
THE NORTHLAND THROUGH THE DAY. THE LATEST FORECASTED LOW TRACK IS
SLIGHTLY FURTHER SOUTHEAST WHICH WILL SLIGHTLY DELAY THE ONSET
TIME FOR THE MAIN SNOWFALL AND ALSO REDUCE THE FREEZING RAIN
AMOUNTS. BUT OVERALL THE CURRENT HEADLINES STILL LOOK TO BE IN
GOOD SHAPE. AS MOST OF THE SNOWFALL IS EXPECTED TO FALL DURING
THE DAY TIME HOURS WE STILL EXPECT THIS TO BE A SLOPPY MESS. OUR
HIGH SUN ANGLE FOR APRIL WILL HELP TO EAT AWAY AT THE OVERALL
SNOW TOTALS. ONE PITFALL FOR THE FORECAST IS TRYING TO NAIL DOWN
THE HIGH TEMPERATURES FOR TODAY. WITH THE SLIGHT SHIFT IN THE
LOW TRACK TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO TREND COOLER BUT STILL BE
FLIRTING WITH AROUND FREEZING TEMPERATURES. BECAUSE OF THIS,
OUR 25TH-75TH RANGES ARE NOW SLIGHTLY BROADER THEN THE PREVIOUS
FORECAST PACKAGE, WHICH IS A LITTLE UNUSUAL SINCE WE ARE AT THE
EVENT HORIZON NOW. BUT, A FEW DEGREES ON EITHER SIDE CAN REALLY
TIP THE SCALES FOR PRECIPITATION TYPE AND ACCUMULATIONS. STILL
WOULD LEAN TOWARDS THE LOWER END AMOUNTS DUE TO THE
AFOREMENTIONED REASONS ABOVE. FORTUNATELY, THE SYNOPTIC FORCING
ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SYSTEM LOOKS A LITTLE MORE DIFFUSE LEADING
TO SNOWFALL RATES STRUGGLING TO GET TO 0.5" PER HOUR. THE ONLY
EXCEPTION TO THIS MAY BE THE NORTH SHORE AND THE TWIN PORTS
WHERE GALES ACROSS THE LAKE WILL LEAD TO A SLIGHT BOOST THANKS
TO TERRAIN ENHANCEMENT. THE LOW PRESSURE WILL DRIFT OFF TOWARDS
THE EASTERN UP EARLY FRIDAY MORNING WITH PRECIPITATION ENDING
SOUTH TO NORTH.
2ND WINTER STORM:
OUR FIRST SYSTEM DEPARTS FRIDAY MORNING WITH A BRIEF REPRIEVE IN THE
ACTION BEFORE THE 2ND SYSTEM STARTS TO BRING ANOTHER ROUND OF
PRECIPITATION FRIDAY AFTERNOON. NOT QUITE A RINSE AND REPEAT OF THE
FIRST SYSTEM, BUT THERE ARE QUITE A LOT SIMILARITIES ONCE AGAIN. WITH
SNOW BEING FAVORED FOR MN AND A WARM NOSE IMPACTING MOST OF NW WI.
ONE OF THE MAJOR DIFFERENCES IS THAT THIS SECOND SYSTEM LOOKS TO BE
A STRONGER UPPER LEVEL LOW AS OPPOSED TO AN OPEN WAVE WHICH IS
LEADING TO INCREASED SYNOPTIC FORCING. THESE BETTER DYNAMICS LOOK TO
ARRIVE IN THE OVERNIGHT HOURS AND PERSIST THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS
OF SATURDAY WHICH WILL FAVOR BETTER SNOWFALL GENERATION AS
SURFACE TEMPERATURES WILL BE BELOW FREEZING. THIS SET UP ALSO
LOOKS TO HAVE A TROWAL WHICH MAY LEAD TO SOME BANDED SNOW
DEVELOPING ACROSS THE RED RIVER VALLEY AND INTO NORTHERN MN.
STILL LOOKING AT HIGH PROBABILITY OF 4" ACROSS OUR NORTHWEST
WITH A TRANSITION ZONE OF A WINTRY MIX THROUGH THE TWIN PORTS
AND THE BRAINERD LAKES REGION. OVER IN NW WI WARM AIR ALOFT WITH
FREEZING OVERNIGHT TEMPERATURES ARE LOOKING MORE FAVORABLE FOR
ICE ACCUMULATIONS GREATER THAN 0.10" BY THE AFTERNOON NW WI WILL
LARGELY BE ABOVE FREEZING WITH RAIN BEING FAVORED FOR A TIME.
AS WE HEAD INTO THE EVENING HOURS SOME STEEPER MID LEVEL LAPSE
RATES WILL RESULT IN SOME MUCAPE BUILDING IN OVER NW WI. THIS
COULD LEAD TO SOME EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS AND INCREASED
PRECIPITATION RATES. WILL NEED TO CLOSELY MONITOR THIS THREAT AS
THIS MAY LEAD TO RAPID ACCUMULATION OF FREEZING RAIN DEPENDING
ON THE TIMING. BY SATURDAY AFTERNOON THE LOW WILL HAVE MOVED
INTO THE UP ONCE AGAIN WITH COLD AIR OVERTAKING THE REGION AND
SNOW BECOMING THE DOMINATE PRECIPITATION TYPE. LOOK FOR THE
STORM TO FULLY EXIT AND SNOW TO TAPER OFF SATURDAY NIGHT.
SUNDAY - MONDAY:
ANOTHER BRIEF LULL IN THE ACTION FOR SUNDAY WITH HIGHS RECOVERING
BACK INTO THE 40S. BUT THE FUN DOESN'T STOP THERE. A CLIPPER SYSTEM
IS SET TO DROP IN FROM THE NORTH LATE SUNDAY WITH IMPACTS LINGERING
THROUGH MONDAY. SNOW TOTALS HAVE GONE UP WITH THIS FORECAST
PACKAGE BUT STILL REMAIN ON THE LOW SIDE AROUND 1-2". ONE THING
TO MONITOR WILL BE THE POTENTIAL FOR SNOW SQUALLS MONDAY
AFTERNOON. LOOKS LIKE ANOTHER CLASSIC SET UP IN NORTHWEST
CYCLONIC FLOW ALOFT AND SOME STEEP LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES. AT THE
VERY MINIMUM IT LOOKS LIKE AN ENVIRONMENT THAT COULD PRODUCE
SOME SNOW SHOWERS WITH HEAVY BURST POTENTIAL.
AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY/
ISSUED AT 553 AM CDT THU APR 2 2026
AN EXPANSIVE WINTER STORM WILL IMPACT THE NORTHLAND FOR THE MAJORITY
OF THE FORECAST PERIOD. CEILINGS WILL LARGELY BE IFR WITH VISIBILITY
VARYING AS WORK THROUGH DIFFERENT PRECIPITATION TYPES AND RATES.
WINDS WILL BE GUSTY OUT OF THE EAST AND EVENTUALLY TURN TO OUT OF
THE NORTH LATER TONIGHT AS PRECIPITATION TAPERS OFF. MIXED
PRECIPITATION IS FAVORED FOR HYR WITH SNOW FAVORED AT THE OTHER
TERMINALS. SNOW CONSISTENCY WILL BE OF THE WET AND HEAVY
VARIETY LEADING TO MORE COMPACTION.
MARINE /FOR NEARSHORE WATERS OF WESTERN LAKE SUPERIOR/
ISSUED AT 237 AM CDT THU APR 2 2026
QUITE AN ACTIVE PATTERN GOING FORWARD WITH NORTHEAST WINDS
INCREASING. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES ARE ALREADY IN EFFECT AND
GALES HAVE BEEN SLIGHTLY DELAYED TO START AROUND NOON.
WIDESPREAD SNOWFALL WILL IMPACT THE LAKE THROUGH THE DAY AS WELL
AS A LARGE SYSTEM MAKES ITS WAY THROUGH THE UPPER MIDWEST.
GALES ONLY BRIEFLY DIMINISH FRIDAY MORNING, BUT ANOTHER LARGE
SYSTEM IS RIGHT ON THE HEELS OF THE FIRST BRINING MORE MESSY
WEATHER TO LAKE SUPERIOR. THIS WILL ALSO INDUCE MORE GALES
FRIDAY EVENING, PRIMARILY ON THE NORTH SHORE.
FOR THE OPEN WATER DISCUSSION, REFER TO THE NWS MARQUETTE AREA
FORECAST DISCUSSION AT WEATHER.GOV/MQT.
DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MN...WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 7 AM CDT FRIDAY FOR MNZ020-021.
WINTER STORM WATCH FROM FRIDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH LATE SATURDAY
NIGHT FOR MNZ010>012-018>021-025-026-033>038.
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM CDT FRIDAY FOR MNZ010>012-
018-019-026-037-038.
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 1 AM CDT FRIDAY FOR MNZ025-
033>036.
WI...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM CDT FRIDAY FOR WIZ001>004.
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 1 AM CDT FRIDAY FOR WIZ006>008.
WINTER STORM WATCH FROM FRIDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH SATURDAY
MORNING FOR WIZ001>004-006>009.
WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR WIZ009.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL NOON CDT TODAY FOR LSZ140>147-150.
GALE WARNING FROM NOON TODAY TO 7 AM CDT FRIDAY FOR LSZ140.
GALE WARNING FROM NOON TODAY TO 1 AM CDT FRIDAY FOR LSZ141>147-
150.
WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 7 AM CDT FRIDAY FOR LSZ142.
WINTER STORM WATCH FROM FRIDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH LATE SATURDAY
NIGHT FOR LSZ142.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 AM CDT FRIDAY FOR LSZ148.
DISCUSSION...BRITT
AVIATION...BRITT
MARINE...BRITT
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.
Main Text Page