581
FXUS63 KDLH 192339
AFDDLH
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DULUTH MN
639 PM CDT MON OCT 19 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- WARM AND DRY INTO THE WEEK. LOW RHS TODAY WILL SLOWLY BEGIN TO
RECOVER AFTER TODAY.
- NEXT CHANCE OF RAIN IS STILL FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY.
- DRY PATTERN RETURNS AT THE END OF NEXT WEEKEND.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 136 PM CDT MON OCT 19 2026
FOR THE REST OF THE DAY, BROAD SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING
ACROSS THE UPPER MIDWEST WILL MAINTAIN QUIET, SUNNY, AND
UNSEASONABLY MILD CONDITIONS ACROSS THE NORTHLAND. CURRENT RH
VALUES ARE ALREADY DIPPING INTO THE LOW 30S AND UPPER 20S
PERCENT, FURTHER SUPPORTING THE LOWERING OF MINIMUM RH EACH DAY
FOR THE PAST FEW DAYS AS VERY DRY AIR ALOFT CONTINUES TO MIX
DOWN TOWARD THE SURFACE, KEEPING DAYTIME HUMIDITY EXCEPTIONALLY
LOW. CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS TONIGHT WILL PROMOTE EFFICIENT
RADIATIONAL COOLING, BRINGING A CHILLY NIGHT ACROSS THE AREA,
THOUGH NOT AS COLD AS LAST NIGHT.
ON TUESDAY, A STABLE OMEGA BLOCKING PATTERN BECOMES FIRMLY
ESTABLISHED ACROSS THE CENTRAL UNITED STATES, KEEPING OUR REGION
UNDER THE CONTROL OF AN UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE. KEPT THE TREND FOR
SLIGHTLY INCREASED DAILY MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES GOING EACH DAY
THROUGH THURSDAY. PLENTIFUL SUNSHINE WILL PREVAIL ALONGSIDE
LIGHT SOUTHERLY BREEZES. MEANWHILE, LOCAL LAKE BREEZES WILL
DEVELOP ALONG THE LAKE SUPERIOR SHORELINE DURING THE AFTERNOON,
KEEPING COASTAL AREAS NOTICEABLY COOLER AND CLOSER TO SEASONAL
NORMS ALONG THE NORTH SHORE, WHILE INTERIOR COMMUNITIES
CONTINUE TO EXPERIENCE UNSEASONABLE AUTUMN WARMTH. THE LAKE
BREEZE IS EXPECTED TO MOVE THE MOST INLAND ON TUESDAY AND
THURSDAY.
CHANGES BEGIN ON FRIDAY AS THE PERSISTENT OMEGA RIDGE STARTS TO
BREAK DOWN. A CLOSED UPPER-LEVEL LOW OVER THE GREAT BASIN WILL EJECT
NORTHEASTWARD TOWARD THE UPPER MIDWEST. CLOUD COVER WILL
STEADILY INCREASE THROUGHOUT THE DAY. RAIN CHANCES ARE STILL ON
TRACK TO ARRIVE FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY, AND CONFIDENCE IS
HIGHER THAT PRECIPITATION WILL OCCUR OVER THAT TIME PERIOD EVEN
IF SCATTERED AS MODELS ARE BECOMING MORE CONSTANT WITH THAT
TIMING. BECAUSE TEMPERATURES AHEAD OF THE SYSTEM REMAIN
UNSEASONABLY MILD, ALL PRECIPITATION WILL FALL STRICTLY AS
LIQUID RAIN.
SCATTERED LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS WILL LINGER ACROSS THE AREA
THROUGH SATURDAY AS THE TROUGH AXIS AND ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT
PUSH ACROSS THE UPPER GREAT LAKES. BY SUNDAY, DRY CONDITIONS
RETURN AS HIGH PRESSURE REBUILDS BEHIND THE DEPARTING SYSTEM,
ACCOMPANIED BY CLEARING SKIES. A SIGNIFICANT AIR MASS CHANGE
BEHIND THE COLD FRONT WILL DROP TEMPERATURES BACK TOWARD
SEASONAL VALUES FOR LATE OCTOBER.
AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z WEDNESDAY/
ISSUED AT 639 PM CDT MON OCT 19 2026
CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS TONIGHT. SOME FOG IS POSSIBLE WITH
THE BEST MODEL SIGNALS AT DLH/HIB. MVFR/IFR VISIBILITIES AND
CEILINGS ARE POSSIBLE AT TIMES LATER TONIGHT INTO EARLY TUESDAY
MORNING. OTHERWISE, EXPECT LIGHT EASTERLY WINDS OVERNIGHT,
BECOMING SOUTHERLY MIDDAY AND A BIT BREEZY TUESDAY WITH SOME
GUSTS UP TO AROUND 15 TO 20 KT.
MARINE /FOR NEARSHORE WATERS OF WESTERN LAKE SUPERIOR/
ISSUED AT 136 PM CDT MON OCT 19 2026
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL KEEP WINDS LIGHT ACROSS WESTERN
LAKE SUPERIOR, WITH NORTHEAST WINDS BECOMING DOMINANT THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING. GUSTS UP TO AROUND 20 KNOTS ARE EXPECTED
AT THE HEAD OF THE LAKE, PRODUCING WAVES OF 1 TO 2 FEET, WHILE
REMAINING WATERS SEE WAVES OF 1 FOOT OR LESS. A SIMILAR SETUP
CONTINUES TUESDAY WITH LIGHT MORNING WINDS INCREASING SLIGHTLY
IN THE AFTERNOON, FOLLOWED BY A SHIFT TO SOUTHWEST WINDS ON
WEDNESDAY.
FOR THE OPEN WATER DISCUSSION, REFER TO THE NWS MARQUETTE AREA
FORECAST DISCUSSION AT WEATHER.GOV/MQT.
FIRE WEATHER
ISSUED AT 136 PM CDT MON OCT 19 2026
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE OVERHEAD MAINTAINS VERY DRY CONDITIONS
TODAY, WITH MINIMUM RELATIVE HUMIDITY DIPPING INTO THE UPPER 20S
AND LOW 30S PERCENT, AND LOCALIZED VALUES NEAR 25 PERCENT IN
NORTHERN MINNESOTA AND 35 PERCENT IN NORTHWEST WISCONSIN. DEEPER
ATMOSPHERIC MIXING COULD BRIEFLY DROP VALUES INTO THE LOWER
20S. HOWEVER, WINDS WILL REMAIN VERY LIGHT OUT OF THE NORTH AND
EAST, PREVENTING CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS. THE DRY AIR
MASS EXITS EAST ON TUESDAY, ALLOWING RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES TO
BEGIN RECOVERING AS LIGHT SOUTHERLY WINDS RETURN. A QUIET
MIDWEEK WITH LIGHT WINDS WILL PERSIST BEFORE THE NEXT CHANCE OF
RAIN ARRIVES FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY.
SEE THE FIRE WEATHER FORECAST PRODUCT FOR A MORE THOROUGH
BREAKDOWN OF FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS.
DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MN...NONE.
WI...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
DISCUSSION...KML
AVIATION...JDS
MARINE...KML
FIRE WEATHER...KML
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