576
FXUS63 KDLH 150010
AFDDLH
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DULUTH MN
710 PM CDT WED APR 14 2021
DISCUSSION
(THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 354 PM CDT WED APR 14 2021
SUMMARY: SCATTERED RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS EXIT THE AREA TONIGHT FOR
MOST LOCATIONS. CLOUD COVER WILL START TO DECREASE TOMORROW MORNING,
WITH PARTLY TO MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES EXPECTED FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE
WORKWEEK AND INTO THE WEEKEND. THE NEXT CHANCE FOR PRECIP ARRIVES
SUNDAY NIGHT, WITH PRECIP CONTINUING INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.
THE FORECAST THE PAST FEW DAYS HAS BEEN FEELING LIKE WE'RE LIVING IN
GROUNDHOG DAY, BUT CHANGES ARE ON THE WAY! TODAY WAS A RINSE AND
REPEAT FROM YESTERDAY, WITH WIDESPREAD CLOUD COVER ACCOMPANIED BY
SCATTERED RAIN AND SNOW. HOWEVER, THE CUT-OFF LOW WHICH WAS
PREVIOUSLY LOCATED OVER FAR NORTHERN MN YESTERDAY HAS MOVED FURTHER
EAST AND IS NOW LOCATED EAST OF LAKE SUPERIOR. EXPECT RAIN AND SNOW
TO COME TO AN END IN THE LATE AFTERNOON TO EVENING FOR MOST
LOCATIONS AS THE LOW CONTINUES ITS EASTWARD PROGRESSION.
RAIN AND SNOW RESULTING FROM NORTHERLY FLOW ON THE BACKSIDE OF THE
LOW PRESSURE WILL BE POSSIBLE TONIGHT INTO TOMORROW MORNING FOR
PORTIONS OF IRON AND ASHLAND COUNTIES. THESE RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS
WILL PRIMARILY BE CONCENTRATED ALONG THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF THE
PENOKEE RANGE, WHERE MASS CONVERGENCE WILL BE MAXIMIZED. MODEL
SOUNDINGS INDICATE THAT THE MID LEVELS ARE LIKELY TO DRY OUT IN THE
EARLY MORNING HOURS, WHICH MAY RESULT IN A LOSS OF ICE CRYSTALS.
THIS MAY LEAD TO PATCHY SPOTS OF FREEZING DRIZZLE TOMORROW MORNING
IN THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF IRON AND ASHLAND COUNTIES. HOWEVER,
SINCE QPF WILL BE MINIMAL AT 0.01" OR LESS, IMPACTS FROM ANY
POTENTIAL FZDZ ARE NOT EXPECTED.
FOLLOWING THE EXIT OF THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM, WEAK RIDGING WILL
DEVELOP ACROSS THE CWA FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE WORKWEEK AND INTO
THE FIRST HALF OF THE WEEKEND. THIS WILL LEAD TO PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES
AND HIGH TEMPS INCREASING TO THE UPPER 40S TO MID 50S. THE NEXT
CHANCE FOR PRECIP ARRIVES SUNDAY NIGHT, AS A STRONG SHORTWAVE
CROSSES THE CWA. THIS SHORTWAVE, IN CONJUNCTION WITH A SECOND
SHORTWAVE IMMEDIATELY FOLLOWING THE FIRST, WILL KEEP RAIN AND SNOW
IN THE FORECAST FOR THE FIRST FEW DAYS OF NEXT WEEK.
AVIATION
(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z THURSDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 623 PM CDT WED APR 14 2021
A FIELD OF MVFR SHOWERS IS SLOWLY DISSIPATING, BUT IS EXPECTED TO
REMAIN A CEILING AND LOWER TO IFR AS THE NIGHT WEARS ON. THE
THICKNESS OF THE CLOUD LAYER SHOULD INCREASE AND DRIZZLE IS
POSSIBLE BY MORNING. WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO DECREASE BEFORE PICKING
UP AGAIN TO CLIMATOLOGICAL NORMALS THURSDAY.
MARINE
ISSUED AT 354 PM CDT WED APR 14 2021
EXPECT RAIN AND SNOW TO COME TO AN END TONIGHT AS LOW PRESSURE MOVES
OUT OF THE REGION. WINDS TONIGHT INTO TOMORROW WILL BE AROUND 5-10
KNOTS FROM THE NORTH-NORTHWEST ACROSS MUCH OF THE LAKE. SLIGHTLY
STRONGER WINDS OF 10 TO 15 KNOTS WITH GUSTS AROUND 20 KNOTS WILL BE
POSSIBLE TONIGHT FROM TACONITE HARBOR TO GRAND PORTAGE AS WELL AS IN
THE OUTER APOSTLE ISLANDS. WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO SHIFT TO THE EAST-
NORTHEAST ON FRIDAY WITH SPEEDS REMAINING AROUND 5-10 KNOTS. WAVES
THROUGHOUT THE NEXT COUPLE DAYS WILL GENERALLY BE 2 FEET OR LESS,
WITH SOME 1-3 FOOT WAVES POSSIBLE TONIGHT AND TOMORROW IN THE OUTER
APOSTLE ISLANDS AND THE SOUTH SHORE FROM OAK POINT TO SAXON
HARBOR.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
DLH 31 47 32 49 / 20 0 0 0
INL 29 47 26 50 / 10 0 0 0
BRD 31 49 31 50 / 10 0 0 0
HYR 32 48 29 53 / 30 10 0 0
ASX 32 45 30 47 / 30 10 0 0
DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
WI...NONE.
MN...NONE.
LS...NONE.
DISCUSSION...UNRUH/LE
AVIATION...WOLFE
MARINE...UNRUH/LE
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