780
FXUS63 KDLH 112344
AFDDLH
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DULUTH MN
644 PM CDT WED MAR 11 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- HEAVY SNOW, BLOWING SNOW, STRONG WINDS, AND A LITTLE MIXED
PRECIPITATION ARE ALL EXPECTED THURSDAY AFTERNOON INTO FRIDAY.
EXPECT IMPACTS FOR THE THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND FRIDAY MORNING
COMMUTES.
- ANOTHER STRONG STORM MAY AFFECT PARTS OF THE NORTHLAND
SATURDAY AND SUNDAY, WITH THE HIGHEST SNOWFALL TOTALS OVER
PORTIONS OF NORTHWEST WISCONSIN
- A DIURNAL FREEZE/THAW WILL LIKELY OCCUR THROUGH LATE WEEK AND
THEN TEMPERATURES REMAIN BELOW FREEZING FOR SEVERAL DAYS EARLY
NEXT WEEK.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 229 PM CDT WED MAR 11 2026
TONIGHT AND THURSDAY MORNING:
A QUICK PERIOD OF QUIET WEATHER IS EXPECTED AHEAD OF THE NEXT
CLIPPER SYSTEM. EXPECT SOME RE-FREEZING TONIGHT, THEN POSSIBLY
SOME BRIEF ABOVE-FREEZING TEMPERATURES THURSDAY BEFORE THE SNOW
ARRIVES IN THE AFTERNOON.
THURSDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH FRIDAY:
IT'S LOOKING LIKE A WHOPPER OF A CLIPPER. IT IS EXPECTED TO
RAPIDLY DEEPEN AS IT APPROACHES US, AND WE CAN EXPECT SOME VERY
STRONG WINDS ESPECIALLY FOR AREAS WITHIN ~50+ MILES AWAY FROM
THE LOW CENTER TRACK. THE TRICK IS FIGURING OUT WHERE EXACTLY
THAT LOW WILL GO. SHORT-RANGE MODELS HAVE BEEN TRACKING IT WELL
TO THE NORTH, TAKING THE LOW CENTER SOMEWHERE THROUGH DULUTH TO
THE ARROWHEAD, WHILE GLOBAL MODELS HAVE BEEN MORE CONSISTENT
TAKING IT JUST SOUTH OF DULUTH AS IT MOVES FROM WNW TO ESE
THROUGH THE REGION. WITH THIS UNCERTAINTY, WE HAVE GONE AHEAD
WITH WARNINGS ONLY IN PLACES THAT WE ARE HIGHLY CONFIDENT WILL
SEE HEAVY SNOWFALL RATES AND/OR STRONG WINDS AND BLOWING SNOW.
IN ALL LOW TRACK POSSIBILITIES, THE NORTH SHORE IS EXPECTED TO
SEE THE HEAVIEST SNOWFALL AMOUNTS DUE TO UPSLOPE FLOW AND STRONG
WINDS OFF THE LAKE. THEREFORE, WE WENT WITH A BLIZZARD WARNING
UP THERE. WIDESPREAD SNOWFALL AMOUNTS FROM 6-12" WITH SOME
LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS ARE POSSIBLE ALONG THE TERRAIN RIDGE AND
WIND GUSTS TO AROUND 45 MPH. ELSEWHERE, WE ISSUED WINTER STORM
WARNINGS FOR A LARGE PORTION OF NORTHEAST MINNESOTA INTO
NORTHWEST WISCONSIN FOR SNOW AMOUNTS BETWEEN 4 AND 8 INCHES.
IT'S POSSIBLE THAT SOME PLACES IN THESE WARNINGS MAY NOT SEE
SNOW TOTALS ABOVE 6" (THE USUAL CRITERIA FOR A WINTER STORM
WARNING), BUT WE ARE EXPECTING SNOWFALL RATES TO EASILY REACH 1
TO PERHAPS 2 INCHES PER HOUR WITH A PRETTY RAPID ONSET THURSDAY
AFTERNOON.
IMPACT-WISE, THIS SHOULD ENSURE A PRETTY TREACHEROUS THURSDAY
AFTERNOON AND EVENING COMMUTE WITH A WIDESPREAD BAND OF HEAVY
SNOW AFFECTING PRETTY MUCH ALL OF THE REGION. THE RESIDENCE TIME
OVER ANY PARTICULAR LOCATION WILL DEPEND ON THE LOW TRACK. THIS
IS OUR JUSTIFICATION FOR THESE WARNINGS EVEN IF A FEW PLACES
FALL SHORT OF WARNING-CRITERIA SNOW.
FURTHER SOUTH, WE HAVE ISSUED WIDESPREAD WINTER STORM WATCHES.
IF CAMS DO TREND BACK TOWARD THE GLOBAL MODEL SOLUTIONS THAT
FAVOR A MORE SOUTHERLY TRACK, HEAVY SNOWFALL AMOUNTS COULD
HAPPEN FURTHER SOUTH. WE WILL NEED ANOTHER HALF DAY OR SO TO
WORK OUT THESE FINE DETAILS AND CONVERT THESE WATCHES EITHER TO
ADVISORIES OR WARNINGS.
IF THE LOW TRACK TAKES MORE OF A NORTHERLY ROUTE, VERY STRONG
NORTHWEST WINDS MAY REACH AS FAR NORTH AS THE BRAINERD LAKES. A
HIGH WIND WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED THERE FOR THE POTENTIAL FOR
GUSTS UP TO 60 MPH THURSDAY NIGHT. IF THE LOW DOES TRACK SOUTH,
WINDS LIKELY WON'T BE QUITE THAT STRONG. STAY TUNED FOR UPDATES
ON THAT, BUT PREPARE FOR THE POSSIBILITY FOR VERY STRONG WINDS
THURSDAY NIGHT.
EXPECT THE HEAVIEST SNOWFALL RATES TUESDAY LATER AFTERNOON AND
EVENING. WE WILL HAVE A WARM SECTOR THAT COULD RESULT IN SOME
MIXED PRECIPITATION AND PERHAPS SOME THUNDER. INDEED,
THUNDERSNOW MAY BE POSSIBLE AT TIMES WITH THIS STORM, ESPECIALLY
FROM THE BRAINERD LAKES INTO NORTHWEST WISCONSIN.
WE GET INTO NORTHWEST FLOW AND WRAPAROUND SNOW SHOWERS FRIDAY
MORNING, AND SOME LINGERING LAKE/TERRAIN ENHANCEMENT IS POSSIBLE
ALONG THE SOUTH SHORE THROUGH FRIDAY AFTERNOON. OVERALL, STRONG
WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO SUBSIDE FRIDAY MORNING INTO THE AFTERNOON
WITH THE STORM MOVING OUT AND LEAVING BEHIND QUIET WEATHER FOR
FRIDAY NIGHT.
WEEKEND STORM:
WE'RE STILL FOLLOWING THE POTENTIAL FOR A STRONG COLORADO-STYLE
LOW (IT MAY ORIGINATE MORE FROM WY/NE). THIS WILL DEEPEN AS IT
MOVES EAST AND SHOULD CREATE A HEAVY BAND OF SNOW ON ITS
NORTHERN SIDE. MODELS ARE PRETTY CONSISTENT IN TAKING THE BULK
OF THIS SNOW SOUTH OF OUR REGION, TARGETING SOUTHERN TO PERHAPS
CENTRAL MINNESOTA AND INTO WISCONSIN. IT IS STILL POSSIBLE THAT
WE COULD SEE A GLANCING BLOW WITH SOME MODERATE TO HEAVY
SNOWFALL AMOUNTS FOR PLACES LIKE NORTHWEST WISCONSIN THOUGH.
SOME WARNING-LEVEL AMOUNTS ARE POSSIBLE, ESPECIALLY IF THIS
STORM ENDS UP TRACKING FURTHER NORTH. WE WILL CONTINUE TO
MONITOR THIS STORM, BUT RIGHT NOW THERE IS HIGH CONFIDENCE THAT
THERE WILL BE A STORM AND MEDIUM CONFIDENCE ON EXACT STORM
TRACK.
NEXT WEEK:
EARLY NEXT WEEK IS LOOKING CHILLY WITH COOL NORTHWEST FLOW AND
POSSIBLY SOME SOUTH SHORE LAKE-EFFECT. WE MAY START TO SEE A
WARMING TREND MID-WEEK WITH SOME PRECIPITATION CHANCES. RIGHT
NOW, LARGE STORMS DO NOT APPEAR IMMINENT.
AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z FRIDAY/
ISSUED AT 642 PM CDT WED MAR 11 2026
VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING. SOME MID-LEVEL CLOUDS
THIS EVENING, BUT TONIGHT WILL SEE WEAK RIDGING WITH WINDS
DROPPING OFF NEAR TO SHORTLY AFTER SUNSET. WINDS BACK TO
SOUTHEASTERLY AND GUSTY BY LATE THURSDAY MORNING INTO AFTERNOON
AS THE NEXT CLIPPER SYSTEM MOVES IN. EXPECT CONDITIONS TO
DETERIORATE RAPIDLY AS SNOW MOVES IN MID TO LATE AFTERNOON INTO
EARLY EVENING FROM WEST TO EAST, WITH RATES BECOMING MODERATE TO
HEAVY FAIRLY QUICKLY AFTER SNOW ONSET WITH BLOWING SNOW
POSSIBLE AT OR AFTER THE END OF THE CURRENT TAF PERIOD. SOME
RAIN COULD MIX IN FOR THURSDAY EVENING FOR SOUTHERN TERMINALS,
WITH THE BEST POTENTIAL AT BRD AND HYR, THOUGH CANNOT COMPLETELY
RULE IT OUT AT DLH EITHER.
MARINE /FOR NEARSHORE WATERS OF WESTERN LAKE SUPERIOR/
ISSUED AT 229 PM CDT WED MAR 11 2026
LIGHT NORTHWEST WINDS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH MID THURSDAY MORNING.
THEN, EXPECT A FAIRLY ABRUPT SHIFT TO SOUTHEASTERLY AHEAD OF AN
APPROACHING CLIPPER SYSTEM. WINDS WILL INCREASE QUICKLY AND
BECOME STRONG THURSDAY AFTERNOON INTO THURSDAY NIGHT. EXPECT
WIDESPREAD GALES TO DEVELOP WITH EAST TO NORTHEAST WINDS
THURSDAY NIGHT, BECOMING NORTH TO NORTHWESTERLY FRIDAY WITH
SPEEDS GRADUALLY DECREASING AS LOW PRESSURE PASSES THROUGH.
WAVES IN EXCESS OF 10 FT ARE EXPECTED AT TIMES AS WELL,
ESPECIALLY ALONG THE NORTH SHORE AND OUTER APOSTLE ISLANDS.
THERE IS A ~10% CHANCE IN SEEING SOME LOCALIZED STORM FORCE
GUSTS AROUND GRAND MARAIS TO GRAND PORTAGE THURSDAY NIGHT AS
WELL. EXPECT HEAVY SNOW AND SOME MIXED PRECIPITATION THROUGH
THIS PERIOD AS WELL.
FOR THE OPEN WATER DISCUSSION, REFER TO THE NWS MARQUETTE AREA
FORECAST DISCUSSION AT WEATHER.GOV/MQT.
DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MN...BLIZZARD WARNING FROM 1 PM THURSDAY TO 1 PM CDT FRIDAY FOR
MNZ020-021.
WINTER STORM WARNING FROM 1 PM THURSDAY TO 1 PM CDT FRIDAY FOR
MNZ010>012-018-019-037.
WINTER STORM WATCH FROM THURSDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH FRIDAY
AFTERNOON FOR MNZ025-026-033>036-038.
HIGH WIND WATCH FROM THURSDAY EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING
FOR MNZ033-034.
WI...WINTER STORM WARNING FROM 1 PM THURSDAY TO 1 PM CDT FRIDAY FOR
WIZ001>004.
WINTER STORM WATCH FROM THURSDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH FRIDAY
AFTERNOON FOR WIZ006>009.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 4 PM TO 7 PM CDT THURSDAY FOR
LSZ140>142.
GALE WARNING FROM 7 PM THURSDAY TO 10 AM CDT FRIDAY FOR
LSZ140>142.
BLIZZARD WARNING FROM 1 PM THURSDAY TO 1 PM CDT FRIDAY FOR
LSZ142.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 4 PM TO 10 PM CDT THURSDAY FOR
LSZ143-144.
GALE WARNING FROM 10 PM THURSDAY TO 10 AM CDT FRIDAY FOR
LSZ143-144.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 4 PM THURSDAY TO 10 PM CDT FRIDAY
FOR LSZ145>148.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 4 PM THURSDAY TO 1 AM CDT FRIDAY FOR
LSZ150.
GALE WARNING FROM 1 AM TO 10 AM CDT FRIDAY FOR LSZ150.
DISCUSSION...JDS
AVIATION...ROTHSTEIN
MARINE...JDS
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