242
FXUS63 KDLH 032021
AFDDLH
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DULUTH MN
ISSUED BY NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LA CROSSE WI
221 PM CST TUE FEB 3 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- FLURRIES AND LIGHT SNOW CHANCES, PRIMARILY ACROSS NORTHERN
MINNESOTA, THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT. MINIMAL ACCUMULATIONS
EXPECTED.
- CLIPPER SYSTEM OVERNIGHT WEDNESDAY AND INTO THURSDAY BRINGS
SNOW TO WINTRY MIX ACROSS NORTHEAST MINNESOTA AND NORTHWEST
WISCONSIN. SNOW ACCUMULATIONS OF 1-2 INCHES POSSIBLE IN
PORTIONS OF FAR NORTHEAST MINNESOTA.
- WARMER THAN NORMAL TEMPERATURES FOR THURSDAY WITH HIGHS ABOVE
FREEZING FOR THE ENTIRE LOCAL AREA.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 221 PM CST TUE FEB 3 2026
GOES-19 WATER VAPOR IMAGERY AND 500MB RAP HEIGHTS CONTINUE TO DEPICT
OUR AREA IN NORTHWESTERLY FLOW THIS AFTERNOON WITH A SHORTWAVE
POSITIONED IN MANITOBA, CANADA THAT WILL PUSH SOUTHEASTWARD FOR
TONIGHT. PRIOR TO THIS WAVE MOVING INTO THE REGION, SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE WILL REMAIN PRESENT THROUGHOUT THE REMAINING DAYTIME
HOURS KEEPING OUR SKIES RELATIVELY CLEAR AND WINDS REMAINING
LIGHT WITH HIGHS GENERALLY IN THE TEENS FOR THE REST OF TODAY.
AS WE HEAD INTO THE OVERNIGHT, THE AFOREMENTIONED SHORTWAVE WILL
MOVE INTO NORTHERN MINNESOTA BRINGING SOME FLURRIES AND LIGHT
SNOW WITH IT. HOWEVER, MOISTURE WITH THE PASSAGE OF THIS WAVE IS
REALLY NOT ALL THAT IMPRESSIVE IN SPITE OF ITS FAIRLY DECENT
APPEARANCE ON WATER VAPOR IMAGERY. AS A RESULT, THE 03.12Z HREF
HAS FAIRLY RESPECTABLE PROBABILITIES (30-60%) FOR MEASURABLE
SNOWFALL IN FAR NORTH-CENTRAL MINNESOTA. THESE PROBABILITIES
DIMINISH QUICKLY AS THE WAVE MOVES SOUTHEAST HOWEVER, AS BOTH
THE SHORTWAVE WEAKENS AND THE RESULTING MOISTURE FEED WANES.
REGARDLESS, REALLY NOT EXPECTING MUCH FOR SNOWFALL ACCUMULATIONS
AS THE 03.12Z HREF HAS VERY LOW PROBABILITIES (UNDER 10%
CHANCE) FOR AMOUNTS OF 1/2" OR GREATER ACROSS NORTHERN
MINNESOTA.
ADDITIONAL SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE MOVES INTO THE AREA UNDERNEATH SOME
BRIEF AND WEAK RIDGING FOR WEDNESDAY RESULTING IN AN INCREASE IN
TEMPERATURES WITH MEDIAN HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE NBM GENERALLY
STAYING RIGHT AROUND THE 20 DEGREE MARK FOR MUCH OF THE LOCAL AREA.
ATTENTION THEN TURNS TO OVERNIGHT WEDNESDAY AND INTO THURSDAY
MORNING AS A CLIPPER SYSTEM PROGRESSES OUT OF MANITOBA AND INTO
NORTHERN MINNESOTA. CURRENTLY, MODEL GUIDANCE PUSHES THE INITIAL
WAVE WITH THIS SYSTEM FAIRLY QUICKLY THROUGH NORTHEAST MINNESOTA AND
NORTHERN WISCONSIN DURING THE MORNING HOURS ON THURSDAY WITH A BROAD
SHIELD OF LIGHT SNOW. HOWEVER, AS PRECIPITATION WANES DURING THE
MORNING AND AFTERNOON WITH THE INITIAL WAVE, A PERIOD OF
DRIZZLE/FREEZING DRIZZLE OR SLEET MAY BE POSSIBLE AS BOTH A WARM
NOSE WORKS INTO THE REGION IN COMBINATION WITH A LOSS OF SATURATION
ALOFT DURING THE MID TO LATE MORNING HOURS ON THURSDAY. HOWEVER,
CONFIDENCE FOR ANY ICE ACCUMULATION REMAINS LOW AT THIS POINT.
SOME RIDGING WORKS INTO THE AREA ON THURSDAY AFTERNOON TURNING FLOW
TO SOUTHWEST AND WESTERLY WHILE USHERING IN MUCH WARMER TEMPERATURES
WITH HIGHS VERY LIKELY REACHING ABOVE FREEZING FOR MOST LOCATIONS.
HOWEVER, BY THE OVERNIGHT AND INTO EARLY FRIDAY MORNING A SURFACE
COLD FRONT WILL BEGIN TO PUSH IN FROM THE NORTH, BRINGING BOTH
COOLER TEMPERATURES AND ANOTHER ROUND OF PRECIPITATION, POTENTIALLY
BEGINNING AS A PERIOD OF DRIZZLE BEFORE DEEPER SATURATION AND COOLER
TEMPERATURES SWITCHES P-TYPES TO SNOW. IN ANY CASE, SNOW
ACCUMULATIONS WITH THIS OVERALL SYSTEM SEEM LIGHT AS PROBABILITIES
IN THE NBM FOR ONE INCH OF SNOW OR GREATER REMAIN LOW (UNDER 30%)
ASIDE FROM IN THE MINNESOTA ARROWHEAD WHERE PROBABILITIES INCREASE
(30-80% CHANCE).
AS WE HEAD INTO THE WEEKEND, NORTHWESTERLY FLOW GETS RE-ESTABLISHED
BEHIND THE FRONT KEEPING TEMPERATURES MORE SEASONABLE WITH HIGHS
GENERALLY IN THE 20S FOR THE WEEKEND. WITH THE NORTHWESTERLY FLOW
REGIME IN PLACE, COULD SEE ADDITIONAL CLIPPER SYSTEMS MOVE THROUGH
WITH THE GLOBAL DETERMINISTIC MODELS (GFS/EC/CANADIAN) HAVING SOME
HINT OF A SHORTWAVE THAT MOVES THROUGH FOR SATURDAY. HOWEVER,
POSITION DIFFERENCES ON WHERE THIS SYSTEM ENDS UP ARE QUITE LARGE
BETWEEN VARIOUS MODEL GROUPS AT THIS POINT. AS WE HEAD INTO NEXT
WEEK, A BROAD UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE WESTERN CONUS SHIFTS
EASTWARD WHICH WILL LIKELY USHER IN MUCH WARMER TEMPERATURES TO
START THE UPCOMING WEEK WITH MEDIAN HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE
NBM ON MONDAY REACHING INTO THE 30S ACROSS THE ENTIRE AREA, WITH
SOME POTENTIAL TO REACH INTO THE 40S AS SHOWN IN THE HIGHER
PERCENTILES OF THE NBM.
AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY/
ISSUED AT 1157 AM CST TUE FEB 3 2026
GOES WATER VAPOR DEPICTS A WELL-FORMED SHORTWAVE TROUGH OVER
MANITOBA WITH SURFACE LOW PRESSURE ALSO SEEN. THIS WAVE WILL
SHIFT SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE AREA TONIGHT BRINGING DIMINISHING
LIFT AS IT WEAKENS AND MOVES SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE LOCAL AREA.
VFR CEILINGS ARE A HIGH PROBABILITY (90%) BUT LOWER LEVEL
SATURATION IS STILL IN QUESTION WITH THE WEAKENING SYSTEM
TONIGHT AND WED MORNING. MODEL GUIDANCE WOULD SUGGEST A SIGNAL
FOR MVFR CIGS IN MOST LOCATIONS, BUT THAT SIGNAL IS LOWER
FURTHER SOUTHEAST. IN NW WI AND FOR DLH, BROUGHT IN VFR
CEILINGS WITH THE LATEST TAFS, BUT THERE COULD BE A CHANCE
(15-20%) OF MVFR IN THE MORNING. PREVAILING P6SM -SN IS
CONTINUED FOR THE NORTHERN AREA, WITH A CHANCE FOR MVFR
VISIBILITIES (30%). MAINLY FLURRIES ARE EXPECTED (60-70%) FOR
AREAS SOUTHEAST OF AN ARROWHEAD-HIB-BRD LINE.
MARINE /FOR NEAR SHORE WATERS OF WESTERN LAKE SUPERIOR/
ISSUED AT 221 PM CST TUE FEB 3 2026
QUIET CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED ON WESTERN LAKE SUPERIOR THROUGH
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON WITH WINDS REMAINING UNDER 10 KTS AND WAVES LESS
THAN 1 FT. A CLIPPER SYSTEM WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA ON THURSDAY
WITH WINDS INCREASING BEHIND A COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE ON THURSDAY
NIGHT AND INTO FRIDAY MORNING TO AROUND 15-25 KTS FROM THE
NORTHWEST WITH GUSTS UP TO 30 KTS. AS A RESULT, SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORIES MAY BE NEEDED DURING THIS PERIOD.
FOR THE OPEN WATER DISCUSSION, REFER TO THE NWS MARQUETTE AREA
FORECAST DISCUSSION AT WEATHER.GOV/MQT.
DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MN...NONE.
WI...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
DISCUSSION...ARX/NAYLOR
AVIATION...WFO DLH
MARINE...ARX/NAYLOR
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