483
FXUS63 KDLH 150550
AFDDLH
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DULUTH MN
1250 AM CDT TUE OCT 15 2024
KEY MESSAGES
- SHOWERS OVER LAKE SUPERIOR AND ARROWHEAD WILL MOVE SOUTHWEST
INTO NORTHWEST WISCONSIN AND LINGER ALONG THE SOUTH SHORE
EARLY THIS MORNING.
- MORE "CONVERSATIONAL" MIX/TRACE OF SNOW POSSIBLE WITH
LINGERING SHOWERS TONIGHT.
- DRY CONDITIONS AND NEAR CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS
RETURN MID WEEK.
- PRECIPITATION CHANCES FOR THIS WEEKEND CONTINUE TO DECREASE.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 157 PM CDT MON OCT 14 2024
SHOWERS OVER THE ARROWHEAD AND WESTERN LAKE SUPERIOR BRINGING
RAIN AND OCCASIONALLY SOME MIX ALONG THE SOUTH SHORE THIS
AFTERNOON. SLIGHT CHANCES (20%) OF THUNDERSTORMS AND WATERSPOUTS
THIS AFTERNOON SHOULD DECREASE LATER ON AS THE SUN BEGINS ITS
DESCENT. SHOWERS, HOWEVER SHOULD LINGER ALONG THE NORTH AND SOUTH
SHORE INTO TONIGHT ALONG A SURFACE BOUNDARY AND FUELED BY THE
WARM LAKE SURFACE. ADDITIONAL ACCUMULATIONS WILL BE AROUND 0.3
INCHES CLOSEST TO THE SHORE AND LESSER FURTHER INLAND. MIX AND
LIGHT SNOW WILL MIX IN WITH THE RAIN FURTHER INLAND AS WELL
TONIGHT AS LOW TEMPERATURES WILL BE SLIGHTLY BELOW 30. VERY
LITTLE SNOWFALL ACCUMULATIONS ARE EXPECTED WITH A TRACE COVERING
PATCHES IN THE GRASS BEING THE HIGHEST.
THE COLD AIR MASS FROM THE LAST COUPLE DAYS WILL BEGIN TO MOVE
EAST TUESDAY AS A QUICK MOVING SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE MOVES IN.
THIS WILL LEAD TO THE RETURN OF DRY CONDITIONS AND SLIGHTLY
INCREASING TEMPERATURES INTO THE LOWER 50S ACROSS THE AREA.
DRY CONDITIONS WILL BECOME MORE OF A CONCERN WEDNESDAY AND
THURSDAY AS A LARGE RIDGE MOVES INTO THE UPPER MIDWEST AND
ADVECTS DRIER AIR AND STRONG SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT OVER THE
NORTHLAND. NEAR CRITICAL TO CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS
WILL LIKELY RETURN WITH RH BELOW 30 PERCENT AND WINDS INCREASING
TO AROUND 20 MPH WEDNESDAY AND UP TO 30 MPH ON THURSDAY. THIS
WILL NEED TO BE CLOSELY MONITORED FOR ANY FIRE HEADLINES IN THE
NEXT COUPLE DAYS.
THE RIDGE AXIS WILL MOVE EAST PAST OUR AREA BY FRIDAY, BUT THE
MODELS ARE GETTING LESS AND LESS EXCITED ABOUT WIDESPREAD
PRECIPITATION FOR THE WEEKEND AS THE MOISTURE AVAILABLE IN THE
UPPER LEVELS DECREASES AND DRY CONDITIONS NEAR THE SURFACE
LINGER. IT'S STARTING TO LOOK MORE LIKE VIRGA WITH SCATTERED
LIGHT SHOWERS FOR THE WEEKEND. THE WARM AIR ADVECTION OUT OF THE
SOUTHWEST WILL CONTINUE AND KEEP TEMPERATURES WELL ABOVE NORMAL
INTO NEXT WEEK.
AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY/
ISSUED AT 1250 AM CDT TUE OCT 15 2024
LINGERING LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE BENEATH BUILDING UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE
ALONG WITH LAKE-EFFECT CLOUDS AND SHOWERS WILL KEEP A FEW SITES
BETWEEN SCT AND BKN EARLY THIS MORNING. WINDS ALOFT WILL BE
BACKING THROUGH LATE THIS MORNING AND THE LAKE-EFFECT CLOUDS AND
SHOWERS WILL DECREASE AS THE FETCH OVER THE WATER BECOMES
SHORTER. HYR WILL SEE VCSH AND OCCASIONAL MVFR CEILINGS EARLY
THIS MORNING. BRD, HIB, AND INL MAY SEE A VERY BRIEF PERIOD OF
IFR VSBY AROUND 12Z. HAVE NOT MENTIONED THAT POTENTIAL WITH THIS
FORECAST AS FORECAST MINIMUM RHS AND WIND SPEEDS ARE A BIT TOO
HIGH. WILL REASSESS THROUGH THE PRE-DAWN HOURS. AS THE HIGH
PRESSURE BECOMES BETTER ESTABLISHED AND DRIER AIR MOVES OVER THE
REGION LATER TODAY, VFR WILL PREDOMINATE.
MARINE /FOR NEAR SHORE WATERS OF WESTERN LAKE SUPERIOR/
ISSUED AT 157 PM CDT MON OCT 14 2024
WINDS OUT OF THE NORTH TO NORTHEAST ARE CURRENTLY NOT MEETING
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CRITERIA, BUT WILL LIKELY INCREASE
THROUGHOUT THIS EVENING, AS THE WARM LAKE WATER IS ABLE TO
MIX THE WINDS ALOFT DOWN TO THE SURFACE. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES
ARE IN EFFECT UNTIL TUESDAY MORNING. WINDS WILL DECREASE
TUESDAY NIGHT AS WINDS BACK TO THE SOUTHWEST, BUT WILL INCREASE
AGAIN WEDNESDAY MORNING UNDER A TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT, LIKELY
PROMPTING MORE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES. THURSDAY THESE CONDITIONS
CONTINUE, WITH INCREASING CHANCES (30%) FOR GALES.
FOR THE OPEN WATER DISCUSSION, REFER TO THE NWS MARQUETTE AREA
FORECAST DISCUSSION AT WEATHER.GOV/MQT.
DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MN...NONE.
WI...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM CDT THIS MORNING FOR LSZ121-
140>148-150.
DISCUSSION...KML
AVIATION...HUYCK
MARINE...KML
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