120
FXUS63 KDLH 291741
AFDDLH
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DULUTH MN
1141 AM CST SAT NOV 29 2025
KEY MESSAGES
- SNOW WILL AFFECT AREAS FROM BRAINERD TO THE TWIN PORTS AND
SOUTHEAST TODAY. THE BEST CHANCE FOR TWO INCHES OR MORE IS
ACROSS NW WI.
- A HEAVY BAND OF LAKE EFFECT SNOW MAY BRING A SHORT LIVED
PERIOD OF INTENSE SNOWFALL TO PORTIONS OF THE SOUTH SHORE,
EXTENDING FROM NORTHERN DOUGLAS COUNTY, EAST ACROSS BAYFIELD,
ASHLAND AND IRON COUNTY THIS AFTERNOON INTO EARLY SUNDAY
MORNING. A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY HAS BEEN ISSUED.
- COLDER TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED FOR THE MUCH OF THE WORK
WEEK WITH ADDITIONAL PASSING CHANCES OF SNOW.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 433 AM CST SAT NOV 29 2025
THE VERY BEGINNINGS OF THE LAKE EFFECT SNOW WE EXPECT LATER
TODAY IS BEGINNING TO SET UP OVER THE LAKE THIS MORNING, WITH A
CLUSTER OF RADAR RETURNS BETWEEN THE APOSTLE ISLANDS, TWO
HARBORS AND SILVER BAY, WHICH PERIODICALLY DRIFT ONTO LAND AN
PRODUCE LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS. SO FAR THIS DOES NOT APPEAR TOO
SIGNIFICANT, BUT LATER TODAY AS THE EASTERLY FLOW STRENGTHENS
AND MORE MOISTURE MOVES INTO THE AREA, I EXPECT THIS TO INCREASE
AND BEGIN TO PUSH SOME DECENT LAKE EFFECT BANDS ONTO THE NORTH
SHORE, GENERALLY SOUTH OF SILVER BAY. DURING THE DAY TODAY THEY
SHOULD NOT BE TOO STRONG AND HAVE KEPT TO CHANCE POPS WITH ONLY
LIGHT ACCUMULATIONS. THIS IS WITHIN THE BACKDROP OF A LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM WHICH MOVES FROM EASTERN KANSAS THIS MORNING
NORTHEAST TO NORTHERN ILLINOIS BY THIS EVENING, THEN INTO
MICHIGAN TONIGHT. THE BULK OF THIS STORM WILL STAY TO OUR SOUTH,
BUT WILL CONTRIBUTE MOISTURE AND THE EASTERLY FLOW ACROSS THE
LAKE TO HELP GENERATE THE LAKE EFFECT SNOW. AS THE WINDS SLOWLY
BACK TO NORTHEAST BY THIS EVENING, THEN NORTHERLY TONIGHT, THE
LAKE EFFECT BANDS WILL ROTATE ACROSS THE SOUTH SHORE OVERNIGHT
TONIGHT. WE ARE EXPECTING THE BANDS TO PERSIST LONG ENOUGH TO
PRODUCE SOME MODERATE SNOWFALL ACCUMULATIONS IN THE 3 TO 6 INCH
RANGE, MAINLY OVERNIGHT TONIGHT. BUT, WE CANNOT FORGET ABOUT THE
LARGER SYSTEM TO OUR SOUTH. THE SYSTEM SHIFTED VERY SLIGHTLY
NORTH WITH THE EVENING MODEL RUNS, WHICH HAS BUMPED UP THE TOTAL
SNOWFALL AMOUNTS FOR PRICE COUNTY. GIVEN THIS INFORMATION, I
HAVE EXPANDED THE WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY TO DOUGLAS, IRON AND
PRICE COUNTIES BEGINNING THIS AFTERNOON AND CONTINUING OVERNIGHT
TONIGHT. I ANTICIPATE WE'LL BE ABLE TO DROP SOME OF THESE
COUNTIES EARLIER DEPENDING ON HOW QUICKLY THE TRAJECTORY OF THE
LES BANDS SHIFT, BUT CONSIDERING HOW VARIABLE THINGS STILL LOOK,
THIS SEEMS BEST FOR NOW.
A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE AREA EARLY NEXT WEEK,
WHICH SHOULD BRING A PERIOD OF QUIET BUT COLDER WEATHER FOR AT
LEAST THE FIRST PARTS OF THE WEEK. THE FORECAST IS CURRENTLY FOR
WELL BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES FOR ALL OF NEXT WEEK, WITH SOME
POTENTIAL FOR SINGLE DIGIT TO AROUND ZERO LOW TEMPERATURES FOR A
FEW NIGHTS. AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH MOVES ACROSS THE MIDWEST
MONDAY INTO TUESDAY, FOLLOWED BY ANOTHER BROAD TROUGH LATER IN
THE WEEK. HOWEVER, THERE IS A LOT OF LOW CONFIDENCE SHORTWAVES
THAT SHOULD MOVE THROUGH THIS UPPER LEVEL PATTERN, GIVING US
INTERMITTENT PRECIPITATION CHANCES STARTING TUESDAY NIGHT AND
CONTINUING INTO NEXT WEEKEND.
AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY/
ISSUED AT 1141 AM CST SAT NOV 29 2025
CURRENT MIX OF MVFR TO VFR CONDITIONS WILL GRADUALLY WORSEN AS A
LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER MISSOURI TRACKS NORTHEAST INTO THE
LOWER GREAT LAKES. LIGHT SNOW ON THE NORTHERN EXTENT OF THIS
SYSTEM WILL SPREAD INTO KBRD/KHYR WITH MVFR CONDITIONS THIS
AFTERNOON, POSSIBLY IFR VISIBILITIES IN SNOW AT KHYR THIS
EVENING AND NEAR-IFR CEILINGS TONIGHT. THE NORTHERN EXTENT OF
THE LIGHT SNOW COULD REACH TO KDLH/KHIB LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING, ALSO WITH MVFR CONDITIONS.
ADDITIONALLY, A CONVERGENT LAKE-EFFECT SNOW BAND OR BANDS
ALONG/NORTH OF KTWM EARLY THIS AFTERNOON WILL GRADUALLY SHIFT
SOUTHEAST INTO KDLH BRIEFLY LATER THIS AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING
AS SURFACE WINDS TURN NORTHEAST AND THEN SHIFT INTO THE SOUTH
SHORE THIS EVENING AND TONIGHT AS WINDS BACK NORTHERLY TO NORTH-
NORTHWESTERLY. REDUCED VISIBILITY, IFR OR LOWER AT TIMES, AND
IFR CEILINGS WOULD BE POSSIBLE FOR A FEW HOURS AS THE SNOW BAND
PASSES THROUGH.
MARINE /FOR NEAR SHORE WATERS OF WESTERN LAKE SUPERIOR/
ISSUED AT 433 AM CST SAT NOV 29 2025
NORTHEAST WINDS WILL GRADUALLY INCREASE TODAY OVER WESTERN LAKE
SUPERIOR, CAUSING BUILDING WAVES INTO THE SOUTHWEST ARM OF THE
LAKE. WIND GUSTS SHOULD INCREASE TO 25 TO 30 KNOTS BY THIS
AFTERNOON AND CONTINUE TONIGHT, EVEN AS THE DIRECTION BACKS
AROUND TO THE NORTH OVERNIGHT AND THEN NORTHWEST BY SUNDAY. HAVE
ISSUED SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES STARTING THIS AFTERNOON AND
CONTINUING INTO SUNDAY BEFORE BOTH WINDS AND WAVES DIMINISH. THE
NORTHWEST WINDS DIMINISH INTO SUNDAY NIGHT, BUT SHOULD INCREASE
ONCE AGAIN ON MONDAY OUT OF THE SOUTHWEST, POTENTIALLY CAUSING
ANOTHER ROUND OF HAZARDOUS CONDITIONS FOR SMALL CRAFT.
FOR THE OPEN WATER DISCUSSION, REFER TO THE NWS MARQUETTE AREA
FORECAST DISCUSSION AT WEATHER.GOV/MQT.
DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MN...NONE.
WI...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM CST SUNDAY FOR WIZ001>004.
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM CST SUNDAY FOR WIZ009.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 6 PM THIS EVENING TO 6 PM CST SUNDAY
FOR LSZ121-140>142-146>148-150.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 6 PM THIS EVENING TO 10 AM CST
SUNDAY FOR LSZ143>145.
DISCUSSION...LE
AVIATION...ROTHSTEIN
MARINE...LE
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