269
FXUS63 KDLH 240454
AFDDLH
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DULUTH MN
1154 PM CDT SAT MAR 23 2019
SHORT TERM
(THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 340 PM CDT SAT MAR 23 2019
QUIET CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE FOR THE REST OF THE AFTERNOON AND
EVENING HOURS, BUT AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT FROM THE NORTH WILL
BRING INCREASING CLOUDS OVERNIGHT, WITH SOME SMALL CHANCES OF
PRECIPITATION AS WELL.
A LARGE UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH WILL SWING THROUGH THE MANITOBA/ONTARIO
CANADA REGION TONIGHT, WHICH WILL ALLOW AN ATTENDANT SURFACE COLD
FRONT TO DIVE SOUTHWARD OVER THE NORTHLAND LATE TONIGHT THROUGH
SUNDAY MORNING. MOST OF THE MODEL SOUNDINGS INDICATE THAT THIS FRONT
APPEARS RATHER MOISTURE STARVED, WITH VERY LITTLE ICE CRYSTAL GROWTH
ALOFT DUE TO A MOSTLY DRY PROFILE. WHILE THERE WILL BE SOME DECENT
LIFT ASSOCIATED WITH THE COLD FRONTAL ZONE, CHARACTERIZED BY
ENHANCED LOW-LEVEL FGEN AND DECENT ISENTROPIC ASCENT, THE BULK OF
THE MOISTURE WILL BE CONFINED TO THE LOWER LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE,
SUGGESTING DRIZZLE/FREEZING DRIZZLE TO BE THE MOST LIKELY
PRECIPITATION TYPE. IN AREAS OF FREEZING DRIZZLE, THIS COULD
GENERATE A THIN GLAZE OF ICE ON UNTREATED ROAD SURFACES,
PARTICULARLY FROM LAKE SUPERIOR WEST-SOUTHWEST TOWARDS THE BRAINERD
LAKES REGION. AS THE COLD FRONT SHIFTS OVER CENTRAL MINNESOTA BY THE
AFTERNOON, THE PRECIPITATION CHANCES WILL SUBSIDE. HIGHS SUNDAY WILL
BE QUITE A BIT COOLER COMPARED TO TODAY, DUE TO THE CLOUD COVER AND
COLD AIR ADVECTION BEHIND THE FRONT, RANGING FROM THE LOWER TO
MIDDLE 20S NORTH TO THE UPPER 20S SOUTH.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN BUILD INTO THE REGION BEHIND THE DEPARTING
COLD FRONT, WHICH WILL BRING CLEARING SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS. EXPECT
A PRETTY CHILLY NIGHT SUNDAY NIGHT/MONDAY MORNING, WITH LOWS IN THE
SINGLE DIGITS TO MIDDLE TEENS ABOVE ZERO.
LONG TERM
(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 340 PM CDT SAT MAR 23 2019
THE PERIOD WILL START OUT DRY WITH HIGH PRESSURE OVER/NEAR THE
REGION WITH TEMPERATURES NEAR NORMAL BUT WILL WARM THROUGH MID WEEK
WITH AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE APPROACHING THE AREA.
AN UPPER RIDGE WILL BE OVER THE WESTERN CONUS MONDAY WITH A SURFACE
HIGH OVER THE NORTHLAND. THE RIDGE WILL MOVE EAST AND THE SURFACE
HIGH WILL PASS EAST OF THE REGION ALLOWING LOW LEVEL SOUTHERLY FLOW
TO DEVELOP ON TUESDAY. WE EXPECT DRY WEATHER INTO TUESDAY WITH
TEMPERATURES RISING INTO THE FORTIES.
AS THE UPPER RIDGE PASSES EAST OF THE REGION TUESDAY NIGHT INTO
WEDNESDAY, AN UPPER TROUGH WILL MOVE OVER THE WESTERN CONUS WITH A
SURFACE LOW NEAR THE AREA BY 00Z THURSDAY. STRONG LOW LEVEL WARM AIR
ADVECTION WILL OCCUR TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY, RESULTING IN
SOME CHANCES FOR MAINLY LIGHT SHOWERS. THERE MAY BE SOME SNOW
SHOWERS TUESDAY NIGHT BEFORE THE WARMER AIR ARRIVES. HIGHS
WEDNESDAY WILL BE IN THE FIFTIES.
THE GFS AND ECMWF DIVERGE SHARPLY IN THEIR SOLUTIONS BY THURSDAY
WITH THE GFS SHOWING MORE PHASING WITH THE NORTHERN STREAM VERSUS
THE ECMWF WHICH KEEPS THE NORTHERN UPPER LOW SEPARATE FROM THE
SOUTHERN TROUGH. THE GFS AND CANADIAN ARE SIMILAR WITH MOVING A
TROUGH SLOWLY THROUGH THE NORTHLAND WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY WITH
THE ECMWF KEEPING THE SURFACE LOW PRESSURE FURTHER SOUTH ALONG WITH
MOST OF THE PRECIPITATION. THE GFS AND CANADIAN INDICATE SIGNIFICANT
RAINFALL COULD OCCUR OVER PORTIONS OF THE NORTHLAND. WE HAVE A
CHANCE FOR SHOWERS FROM MID WEEK INTO THE WEEKEND FOR NOW.
TEMPERATURES WILL DROP BACK INTO THE UPPER THIRTIES TO MIDDLE
FORTIES BY FRIDAY. LOWS WILL BE WARMEST WEDNESDAY NIGHT WHEN THEY
REMAIN IN THE MID THIRTIES TO MID FORTIES BUT MOST OTHER DAYS THEY
WILL BE AT OR BELOW FREEZING FOR MOST AREAS.
A GRADUAL MELT WILL CONTINUE NEXT WEEK, ALTHOUGH HIGHS IN THE MID TO
UPPER FIFTIES ON WEDNESDAY WILL LEAD TO ACCELERATED MELTING. IF
SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL WERE TO OCCUR AS INDICATED BY THE CANADIAN/GFS,
QUICKER RISES IN AREA RIVERS WOULD OCCUR.
AVIATION
(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1152 PM CDT SAT MAR 23 2019
VFR CONDITIONS UNTIL A COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH LATE TONIGHT INTO
SUNDAY MORNING FROM NORTH TO SOUTH. THIS WILL BRING MVFR CEILINGS
AND A CHANCE FOR LIGHT DRIZZLE AND FREEZING DRIZZLE. SKIES WILL
GRADUALLY CLEAR WITH VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE AFTERNOON ON
SUNDAY, BUT GUSTY WINDS UP TO 35 MPH WILL DEVELOP, ESPECIALLY
NEAR LAKE SUPERIOR, WHICH SHOULD LAST THROUGH EARLY EVENING BEFORE
WEAKENING.
MARINE
ISSUED AT 1146 PM CDT SAT MAR 23 2019
A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE REGION TONIGHT SWITCHING THE
WIND TO EAST TO NORTHEAST OVERNIGHT. WIND SPEEDS WILL QUICKLY
INCREASE WITH THE FRONTAL PASSAGE WITH SUSTAINED WINDS FROM 15 TO
25 KNOTS AND GUSTS OF 35 TO 40 KNOTS. THE WIND SWITCH AND
INCREASE WILL OCCUR BETWEEN 2 AM AND 4 AM AROUND GRAND PORTAGE AND
IT WILL WORK IT'S WAY SOUTH OVERNIGHT REACHING THE SOUTH SHORE
BETWEEN 6 AM AND 7 AM. THE WIND WILL THEN DECREASE THROUGH THE DAY
FROM NORTH TO SOUTH. DUE TO THE CONFLUENCE OF THE TOPOGRAPHY
AROUND THE HEAD OF WESTERN LAKE SUPERIOR AND DUE TO THE NORTHEAST
WINDS OPTED TO ISSUE A GALE WATCH FOR THE EARLY MORNING HOURS ON
SUNDAY WHERE GALE FORCE WIND GUSTS ARE POSSIBLE. DO NOT EXPECT
THEM TO BE PROLONGED.
HYDROLOGY
ISSUED AT 345 PM CDT SAT MAR 23 2019
GRADUAL SNOWMELT WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE NORTHLAND WITH DAYTIME
TEMPERATURES ABOVE FREEZING AND OVERNIGHT LOWS DIPPING BELOW
FREEZING MOST NIGHTS. LOWS TUESDAY NIGHT WILL REMAIN ABOVE
FREEZING IN SPOTS, AND THEY WILL BE IN THE MID THIRTIES TO MID
FORTIES WEDNESDAY NIGHT. WATER LEVELS IN AREA RIVERS AND CREEKS
ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE OVER THE NEXT 7 DAYS. THE MISSISSIPPI
RIVER AT FORT RIPLEY IS FORECAST TO RISE TO NEAR OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE
MINOR FLOOD STAGE WEDNESDAY NIGHT OR THURSDAY. WE ALSO RECEIVED A
REPORT FROM LOCAL LAW ENFORCEMENT OF WATER OVER CASS COUNTY
HIGHWAY 30 NEAR STATE HIGHWAY 64 SOUTH OF LEADER, MN, ALONG IRON
CREEK. WE HAVE ISSUED A FLOOD ADVISORY FOR THIS AREA DUE TO WATER
OVER THE ROADWAY. WITH ICE ON MANY RIVERS, THERE IS A RISK OF ICE
JAM FLOODING THROUGH THE NEXT WEEK. THERE IS A CHANCE FOR
PRECIPITATION MID TO LATE WEEK AS WELL, WHICH COULD CONTRIBUTE TO
ADDITIONAL WATER RISES.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
DLH 27 34 13 38 / 20 30 0 0
INL 21 33 7 38 / 20 0 0 0
BRD 27 40 15 40 / 10 20 0 0
HYR 25 39 9 40 / 10 20 0 0
ASX 27 33 11 40 / 20 30 0 0
DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
WI...NONE.
MN...NONE.
LS...GALE WATCH FROM 4 AM TO 10 AM CDT SUNDAY FOR LSZ143>146.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 4 AM TO 4 PM CDT SUNDAY FOR LSZ142-147-
148.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 1 PM CDT SUNDAY FOR LSZ140-141.
SHORT TERM...JTS
LONG TERM...MELDE
AVIATION...WOLFE
HYDROLOGY...MELDE/JTS
MARINE...WOLFE
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