741  
FXUS63 KDLH 192328  
AFDDLH  
 
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION  
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DULUTH MN  
628 PM CDT FRI AUG 19 2022  
   
DISCUSSION
 
(THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY)  
ISSUED AT 240 PM CDT FRI AUG 19 2022  
 
SUMMARY: A CUT OFF LOW WILL CONTINUE TO SAG SOUTH ACROSS CENTRAL MN  
SPAWNING SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. NO  
SEVERE WEATHER IS ANTICIPATED BUT DUE TO THE COPIOUS AMOUNTS OF  
MOISTURE CERTAIN SECTORS OF OUR CWA HAVE SEEN OVER THE PAST WEEK  
FLASH FLOODING REMAINS A CONCERN. SHOWERY ACTIVITY WILL TAPER OFF  
OVERNIGHT WITH THE CHANCE FOR FOG TO SEEP ACROSS MUCH OF THE REGION.  
RAIN CHANCES SHIFT TOWARDS WI FOR TOMORROW AFTERNOON BEFORE CLEARING  
SKIES AND HIGHS IN THE UPPER 70S FOR SUNDAY.  
 
SATELLITE AND RADAR THIS AFTERNOON SHOWCASES COUNTERCLOCKWISE  
ROTATION AROUND THE VERTICALLY STACKED LOW OVER CENTRAL MN.  
SCATTERED SHOWER AND STORMS WILL REMAIN IN THE FORECAST THROUGH THE  
AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS AS THIS LOW SLOWLY MIGRATES SOUTH. SOME  
SLIGHT CLEARING IN CLOUD COVER AROUND MID DAY HAS ALLOWED SOME  
INSTABILITY TO BUILD THIS AFTERNOON. MODEL SOUNDING PROFILES STILL  
SUGGEST A MOIST ENVIRONMENT WITH PW VALUES AROUND THE 90TH  
PERCENTILE OF CLIMATOLOGY.  
 
AS WE HAVE SEEN OVER THE PAST SEVERAL DAYS THE MAIN CONCERN IS THE  
POSSIBILITY OF FLASH FLOODING. LACK OF OVERALL SHEAR WILL LIMIT THE  
GROWTH OF ANY STORMS BUT THE SLOW MOVING NATURE AND TRAINING STORMS  
OVER THE ALREADY RAIN SOAKED AREAS COULD LEAD TO SOME MINOR  
FLOODING. THE CAMS ARE TRYING TO PIN POINT A LINE OF SHOWERS AND  
STORM DEVELOPING ALONG A WARM FRONTAL BOUNDARY EXTENDING ACROSS  
NORTHERN MN THIS AFTERNOON. DEPENDING ON WHERE THIS BAND SETS UP WE  
WE MAY SEE ADDITIONAL FLOOD HEADLINES ISSUED. RADAR DERIVED RAIN  
TOTALS OVER THE PAST 72 HRS HAS SOME HOT SPOTS FROM NORTHERN CASS  
UP THROUGH KOOCHICHING AND NORTHERN ST. LOUIS COUNTIES.  
 
SHOWERY CHANCES WILL TAPER OFF THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD AS THE  
LOW PULLS FURTHER SOUTH AND WE LOSE OUR INSTABILITY. WE MAY ALSO SEE  
SOME FOG SEEP IN ACROSS THE NORTHLAND AND LINGER THROUGH MID  
MORNING. SATURDAY, THE VERTICALLY STACKED LOW BEGINS TO SLIDE EAST  
TOWARDS LAKE MICHIGAN AND SHOULD SHIFT THE BETTER PRECIPITATION  
CHANCES OVER NW WI, HOWEVER, CAN'T FULLY RULE OUT SOME SPRINKLES ON  
THE MN SIDE.  
 
SUNDAY, SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS BACK IN WITH UPPER LEVEL  
RIDGING OVER HEAD. LOOK FOR CLEARING SKIES, DRIER CONDITIONS, AND  
HIGHS IN THE UPPER 70S. PRECIPITATION CHANCES DO RETURN LATE MONDAY  
AS A SHORTWAVE SLIDES IN FROM THE NORTHWEST BUT THE 12Z SUITE OF  
GLOBAL MODEL GUIDANCE HASN'T QUITE HONED IN ON THE TIMING. WITH  
RIDGING BUILDING BACK OVER THE DESERT SOUTHWEST THE NORTHLAND WILL  
ONCE AGAIN BE UNDER NORTHWESTERLY FLOW. PERIODIC SHORTWAVES MOVING  
THROUGH THE PATTERN WILL GIVE WAY TO PRECIPITATION CHANCES THROUGH  
THE WEEK.  
 

 
   
AVIATION
 
(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SATURDAY EVENING)  
ISSUED AT 628 PM CDT FRI AUG 19 2022  
 
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS AS OF ISSUANCE TIME ARE EXPECTED TO  
GRADUALLY DIMINISH OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS AS WE LOSE DAYTIME  
HEATING, AND HAVE ONLY INCLUDED AN HOUR OR TWO OF VCTS/VCSH GROUPS  
IN THE TERMINALS THIS EVENING. OVERNIGHT SHOWERS SHOULD STAY AWAY  
FROM THE TERMINALS, BUT IF TRENDS SHOW DIFFERENTLY, WILL HAVE TO  
AMEND. FOG IS CURRENTLY OVER LAKE SUPERIOR BUT IS EXPECTED TO  
SPREAD INLAND THIS EVENING, AND HAVE FOG SPREADING INTO NEARLY ALL  
THE TERMINALS OVERNIGHT WITH VISIBILITIES AND CEILINGS LOWERING TO  
IFR/LIFR FOR SEVERAL OF THE TERMINALS. SITES CLOSEST TO LAKE  
SUPERIOR WILL BE LOWEST THE LONGEST, THOUGH ALL SITES SHOULD  
IMPROVE TO AT LEAST MVFR IF NOT VFR AROUND 15Z. DAYTIME SHOWERS  
AND STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO REDEVELOP ONCE AGAIN IN THE 16-18Z TIME  
RANGE, BUT FOR NOW ANTICIPATE THEM STAYING AWAY FROM THE  
TERMINALS, THOUGH KHYR IS MOST AT RISK, AND WE WILL HAVE TO WATCH  
TRENDS.  
 

 
   
MARINE
 
 
ISSUED AT 240 PM CDT FRI AUG 19 2022  
 
NORTHEAST WINDS CONTINUE TO STREAM ACROSS THE WESTERN LAKE SUPERIOR  
WITH SPEEDS OF 10 TO 15 KNOTS NEAR THE HEAD OF THE LAKE. WAVE  
HEIGHTS REMAIN 2 FT OR LESS. A FEW SHOWERS AND STORMS HAVE BEGUN TO  
POPULATE THIS AFTERNOON AND MAY MOVE OVER THE LAKE THIS EVENING.  
PRECIPITATION CHANCES TAPER OFF OVERNIGHT WITH DENSE FOG LIKELY  
DEVELOPING. FOG IS EXPECTED TO ERODE BY LATE TOMORROW MORNING.  
 

 
   
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
 
 
DLH 57 70 55 78 / 20 10 0 0  
INL 55 76 48 79 / 20 10 0 0  
BRD 58 75 55 79 / 20 10 0 0  
HYR 55 71 51 78 / 30 20 0 0  
ASX 56 70 51 79 / 20 20 0 0  
 

 
   
DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
 
 
WI...NONE.  
MN...NONE.  
LS...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 11 AM CDT SATURDAY FOR LSZ121-140>148-  
150.  
 

 
 

 
 
DISCUSSION...BRITT  
AVIATION...LE  
MARINE...BRITT  
 
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