576  
FXUS63 KDLH 150010  
AFDDLH  
 
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION  
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DULUTH MN  
710 PM CDT WED APR 14 2021  
   
DISCUSSION
 
(THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY)  
ISSUED AT 354 PM CDT WED APR 14 2021  
 
SUMMARY: SCATTERED RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS EXIT THE AREA TONIGHT FOR  
MOST LOCATIONS. CLOUD COVER WILL START TO DECREASE TOMORROW MORNING,  
WITH PARTLY TO MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES EXPECTED FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE  
WORKWEEK AND INTO THE WEEKEND. THE NEXT CHANCE FOR PRECIP ARRIVES  
SUNDAY NIGHT, WITH PRECIP CONTINUING INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.  
 
THE FORECAST THE PAST FEW DAYS HAS BEEN FEELING LIKE WE'RE LIVING IN  
GROUNDHOG DAY, BUT CHANGES ARE ON THE WAY! TODAY WAS A RINSE AND  
REPEAT FROM YESTERDAY, WITH WIDESPREAD CLOUD COVER ACCOMPANIED BY  
SCATTERED RAIN AND SNOW. HOWEVER, THE CUT-OFF LOW WHICH WAS  
PREVIOUSLY LOCATED OVER FAR NORTHERN MN YESTERDAY HAS MOVED FURTHER  
EAST AND IS NOW LOCATED EAST OF LAKE SUPERIOR. EXPECT RAIN AND SNOW  
TO COME TO AN END IN THE LATE AFTERNOON TO EVENING FOR MOST  
LOCATIONS AS THE LOW CONTINUES ITS EASTWARD PROGRESSION.  
 
RAIN AND SNOW RESULTING FROM NORTHERLY FLOW ON THE BACKSIDE OF THE  
LOW PRESSURE WILL BE POSSIBLE TONIGHT INTO TOMORROW MORNING FOR  
PORTIONS OF IRON AND ASHLAND COUNTIES. THESE RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS  
WILL PRIMARILY BE CONCENTRATED ALONG THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF THE  
PENOKEE RANGE, WHERE MASS CONVERGENCE WILL BE MAXIMIZED. MODEL  
SOUNDINGS INDICATE THAT THE MID LEVELS ARE LIKELY TO DRY OUT IN THE  
EARLY MORNING HOURS, WHICH MAY RESULT IN A LOSS OF ICE CRYSTALS.  
THIS MAY LEAD TO PATCHY SPOTS OF FREEZING DRIZZLE TOMORROW MORNING  
IN THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF IRON AND ASHLAND COUNTIES. HOWEVER,  
SINCE QPF WILL BE MINIMAL AT 0.01" OR LESS, IMPACTS FROM ANY  
POTENTIAL FZDZ ARE NOT EXPECTED.  
 
FOLLOWING THE EXIT OF THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM, WEAK RIDGING WILL  
DEVELOP ACROSS THE CWA FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE WORKWEEK AND INTO  
THE FIRST HALF OF THE WEEKEND. THIS WILL LEAD TO PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES  
AND HIGH TEMPS INCREASING TO THE UPPER 40S TO MID 50S. THE NEXT  
CHANCE FOR PRECIP ARRIVES SUNDAY NIGHT, AS A STRONG SHORTWAVE  
CROSSES THE CWA. THIS SHORTWAVE, IN CONJUNCTION WITH A SECOND  
SHORTWAVE IMMEDIATELY FOLLOWING THE FIRST, WILL KEEP RAIN AND SNOW  
IN THE FORECAST FOR THE FIRST FEW DAYS OF NEXT WEEK.  
 

 
   
AVIATION
 
(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z THURSDAY EVENING)  
ISSUED AT 623 PM CDT WED APR 14 2021  
 
A FIELD OF MVFR SHOWERS IS SLOWLY DISSIPATING, BUT IS EXPECTED TO  
REMAIN A CEILING AND LOWER TO IFR AS THE NIGHT WEARS ON. THE  
THICKNESS OF THE CLOUD LAYER SHOULD INCREASE AND DRIZZLE IS  
POSSIBLE BY MORNING. WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO DECREASE BEFORE PICKING  
UP AGAIN TO CLIMATOLOGICAL NORMALS THURSDAY.  
 

 
   
MARINE
 
 
ISSUED AT 354 PM CDT WED APR 14 2021  
 
EXPECT RAIN AND SNOW TO COME TO AN END TONIGHT AS LOW PRESSURE MOVES  
OUT OF THE REGION. WINDS TONIGHT INTO TOMORROW WILL BE AROUND 5-10  
KNOTS FROM THE NORTH-NORTHWEST ACROSS MUCH OF THE LAKE. SLIGHTLY  
STRONGER WINDS OF 10 TO 15 KNOTS WITH GUSTS AROUND 20 KNOTS WILL BE  
POSSIBLE TONIGHT FROM TACONITE HARBOR TO GRAND PORTAGE AS WELL AS IN  
THE OUTER APOSTLE ISLANDS. WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO SHIFT TO THE EAST-  
NORTHEAST ON FRIDAY WITH SPEEDS REMAINING AROUND 5-10 KNOTS. WAVES  
THROUGHOUT THE NEXT COUPLE DAYS WILL GENERALLY BE 2 FEET OR LESS,  
WITH SOME 1-3 FOOT WAVES POSSIBLE TONIGHT AND TOMORROW IN THE OUTER  
APOSTLE ISLANDS AND THE SOUTH SHORE FROM OAK POINT TO SAXON  
HARBOR.  
 

 
   
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
 
 
DLH 31 47 32 49 / 20 0 0 0  
INL 29 47 26 50 / 10 0 0 0  
BRD 31 49 31 50 / 10 0 0 0  
HYR 32 48 29 53 / 30 10 0 0  
ASX 32 45 30 47 / 30 10 0 0  
 

 
   
DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
 
 
WI...NONE.  
MN...NONE.  
LS...NONE.  

 
 

 
 
DISCUSSION...UNRUH/LE  
AVIATION...WOLFE  
MARINE...UNRUH/LE  
 
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