752
FXUS63 KDLH 221126
AFDDLH
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DULUTH MN
626 AM CDT WED APR 22 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- CRITICAL TO NEAR-CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED TODAY. A RED FLAG WARNING HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR TODAY
AROUND THE BRAINERD LAKES DUE TO BREEZY SOUTHERLY WINDS AND
CRITICALLY DRY RELATIVE HUMIDITY.
- STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS MAY BE POSSIBLE ON THURSDAY
AFTERNOON AND EVENING AS A COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE AREA.
A MARGINAL RISK IS IN EFFECT FOR MUCH OF THE AREA.
- COOLER, YET NEAR SEASONAL NORMALS, TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED
TO MOVE IN ON FRIDAY AND PERSIST INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH
ADDITIONAL CHANCES FOR RAIN.
UPDATE
ISSUED AT 346 AM CDT WED APR 22 2026
THE MAIN CONCERN TODAY IS THE FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS WITH THE
VERY DRY AIRMASS LINGERING OVER THE AREA. YESTERDAY, DEWPOINTS
WERE IN THE TEENS AND LOW 20S FOR MUCH OF THE AFTERNOON,
PRODUCING MINIMUM RH VALUES DOWN AROUND 15 PERCENT. WHILE WE
SHOULD NOT BE AS DRY AS YESTERDAY WITH SOUTHERLY WINDS BEGINNING
TO PUSH MOISTURE BACK INTO THE REGION, IT WILL STILL BE
CRITICALLY DRY, AND WITH THE STRONGER WINDS TODAY COMPARED TO
YESTERDAY, FIRES MAY SPREAD RAPIDLY. MODEL GUIDANCE, AS IS
FAIRLY TYPICAL THIS TIME OF YEAR IS TOO MOIST WITH DEWPOINT
AND/OR RH VALUES, AND TENDS TO ADVECT THE MOISTURE INTO THE
NORTHLAND TOO QUICKLY. IN FACT, JUST YESTERDAY THE 21Z DEWPOINT
WAS WELL BELOW THE 5TH PERCENTILE OF THE NBM, AND MONDAY IT WAS
DOWN AROUND THE 10TH PERCENTILE OF THE NBM. NEEDLESS TO SAY, I
HAVE GONE WITH PRETTY DRY VALUES, THOUGH NOT QUITE TO THE 10TH
PERCENTILE. THERE IS A STEEP GRADIENT ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA,
WITH DEWPOINTS RISING TO NEAR 40 AROUND BRAINERD, BUT REMAINING
IN THE 20S FOR THE ARROWHEAD. ANYWAY, WITH THE VERY DRY
CONDITIONS AND INCREASED WINDS FOR TODAY, WE HAVE DECIDED TO
UPGRADE THE FIRE WEATHER WATCH TO A RED FLAG WARNING. ALSO,
CONSIDERING HOW DRY IT WILL STILL BE FOR ANY OF OUR INLAND
AREAS, THERE WILL BE A SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT FOR ALL OR
PARTS OF OUR OTHER MN COUNTIES. LAKE WINDS WILL BE EAST TO
NORTHEAST AND BREEZY TODAY, CAUSING AREAS NEAR LAKE SUPERIOR TO
NOT ONLY BE 10 TO 15 DEGREES COOLER THAN INLAND AREAS, BUT ALSO
MUCH MORE HUMID.
THE NEXT TIMEFRAME OF CONCERN IS THURSDAY AND THURSDAY EVENING.
AFTER A VERY WARM DAY, SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE
EXPECTED TO DEVELOP BY THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND CONTINUE INTO THE
EVENING HOURS. THERE WAS A NOTABLE SHIFT IN THE CAM MODELS TO
THE EAST FOR THE POSITION OF THE COLD FRONT DURING THE DAY ON
THURSDAY. THIS SHIFT HAS NOW PUSHED THE CONVECTIVE INITIATION TO
OVER THE NORTHLAND AS OPPOSED TO WEST OF US, WHICH WE WERE
SEEING YESTERDAY. FAVORABLE ATMOSPHERIC DYNAMICS AND INSTABILITY
WILL SUPPORT THE POTENTIAL FOR A FEW STRONG TO SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS. THE PRIMARY HAZARDS WITH ANY SEVERE STORMS THAT
DEVELOP WILL BE LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WIND GUSTS. THE SHIFT IN
TIMING NOTED ABOVE PUSHES THE TIMING A LITTLE EARLIER, BUT MORE
CENTERED OVER THE AREA. THE STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS ALL OF
THE CWA IN A MARGINAL RISK FOR THURSDAY, WITH A SLIGHT TO OUR
SOUTH.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 258 PM CDT TUE APR 21 2026
FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY:
NEAR-CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS CONTINUE TODAY AS A VERY DRY
AIRMASS LINGERS OVER THE CWA. LATEST SURFACE ANALYSIS REVEALS HIGH
PRESSURE OVER NORTHERN MN, WHICH HAS ALLOWED FOR DRY AIR ADVECTION
TO OCCUR INTO THE CWA FROM ONTARIO. WIDESPREAD MIN RH VALUES BELOW
20% ARE EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON DUE TO THIS DRY AIR MASS AND
MODERATELY DEEP MIXING TO AROUND 5,000 FEET. FORTUNATELY, NORTHERLY
WINDS HAVE BEEN RELATIVELY LIGHT TODAY, ESPECIALLY IN COMPARISON TO
THE BREEZY SOUTHERLY WINDS YESTERDAY. THEREFORE, A SPECIAL WEATHER
STATEMENT FOR NEAR-CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS REMAINS IN
EFFECT TODAY IN NORTHEAST MN, WHERE DRY FUELS ARE OF PARTICULAR
CONCERN.
A 500MB RIDGE, CURRENTLY CENTERED OVER THE HIGH PLAINS, WILL BE
SHIFTING EASTWARD INTO THE CWA TOMORROW AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING DEEP
TROUGH. WITH WINDS SHIFTING TO THE SOUTH ON WEDNESDAY, THIS WILL
ALLOW FOR WAA TO OCCUR AND INCREASE HIGH TEMPS INTO THE 70S TO
AROUND 80 ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA. THE EXCEPTION TO THESE 70+ DEGREE
TEMPS WILL BE ALONG THE NORTH SHORE WHERE COOL AIR MOVING INLAND
FROM LAKE SUPERIOR WILL KEEP HIGHS TOMORROW AROUND 10-15 DEGREES
COOLER THAN LOCATIONS FARTHER INLAND IN THE ARROWHEAD.
IN ADDITION TO WARM TEMPERATURES, CRITICALLY DRY RH AS LOW AS 20% IS
FORECAST FOR TOMORROW. THERE IS SOME DEGREE OF UNCERTAINTY
TOMORROW IN TERMS OF RH, NOTABLY HOW FAR NORTH MOISTURE WILL
ADVECT WITH THE SOUTHERLY FLOW DURING PEAK DIURNAL HEATING. IN
THE FORECAST UPDATE THIS AFTERNOON, OPTED TO ERR ON THE DRIER
SIDE GIVEN THE TREND FROM THE PAST COUPLE DAYS. ONE CHANGE FOR
WEDNESDAY WILL BE STRONGER WINDS COMPARED TO TODAY IN NORTH-
CENTRAL MN, MAINLY AROUND THE BRAINERD LAKES AREA. WIND GUSTS UP
TO 25 MPH WILL BE POSSIBLE, MOST LIKELY STARTING AFTER 18Z AND
REMAINING ELEVATED INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT.
DUE TO THE COMBINATION OF CRITICALLY DRY RH, BREEZY WINDS, AND
RECEPTIVE FUELS, A FIRE WEATHER WATCH WAS ISSUED FOR WEDNESDAY FROM
12 PM TO 8 PM IN THE BRAINERD LAKES AREA, INCLUDING ITASCA AND
AITKIN COUNTIES. IF RECENT MODEL TRENDS CONTINUE AND MOISTURE
ADVECTION REMAINS FAIRLY MARGINAL DURING THE DAYTIME HOURS, AN
UPGRADE TO A RED FLAG WARNING WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED. USE CAUTION
WITH FIRE AND FOLLOW ANY BURN RESTRICTIONS.
SEVERE WEATHER POTENTIAL AND CHANGE IN PATTERN:
WEDNESDAY NIGHT WILL BEGIN A CHANGE IN PATTERN FROM WARM AND DRY
CONDITIONS TO WETTER AND COOLER. A DEEP, VERTICALLY-STACKED SURFACE
LOW WILL BE ARRIVING INTO THE MIDWEST LATE WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY
AS THE AFOREMENTIONED DEEP TROUGH PROPAGATES EAST. THE FIRST ROUND
OF CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SYSTEM IS FORECAST TO ARRIVE
WEDNESDAY EVENING ALONG A LIFTING WARM FRONT. SINCE THERE WILL
LIKELY BE A SIZABLE DRY LAYER LINGERING IN THE LOW-LEVELS,
PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS WILL BE LIMITED AND MUCH OF THIS WILL
LIKELY FALL AS VIRGA. INSTABILITY APPEARS TO BE FAVORABLE ALONG
THIS WARM FRONT, WITH SOME GUIDANCE SUGGESTING MUCAPE IN EXCESS
OF 500MB. HOWEVER, MODEL SOUNDINGS SHOW THAT ANY POTENTIAL
STORMS WILL BE ELEVATED TO THE POINT WHERE CONVECTIVE INITIATION
WILL BE DIFFICULT. THE 12Z HREF COMPOSITE REFLECTIVITY MEMBERS
REFLECT THIS WELL, WITH CONVECTION BEING LIMITED ACROSS THE CWA.
THE TIME PERIOD OF GREATER CONCERN FOR ANY STRONG TO SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING AS THE COLD
FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THE VERTICALLY-STACKED LOW SWEEPS THROUGH THE
CWA. CONDITIONS IN OUR NECK OF THE WOODS CONTINUE TO APPEAR MARGINAL
AT BEST, WITH THE ARRIVAL OF BEST INSTABILITY OCCURRING AROUND/AFTER
PEAK DIURNAL HEATING. CONVECTIVE INITIATION IS MOST LIKELY TO
OCCUR ALONG THE FRONT TO OUR WEST AND PROPAGATE INTO OUR CWA
LATE ON THURSDAY. CSU MACHINE LEARNING PROBS CONTINUE TO SHOW
THE GREATEST POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE WEATHER TO THE WEST AND SOUTH
OF THE CWA. THE STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS MUCH OF THE CWA IN A
MARGINAL RISK FOR THURSDAY, WHICH IS IN LINE WITH THE CURRENT
ASSESSMENT OF MARGINALLY FAVORABLE BULK SHEAR AND INSTABILITY.
FOLLOWING THE COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE ON THURSDAY NIGHT, HIGH TEMPS ARE
FORECAST TO BE AROUND 10-15 DEGREES COOLER ON FRIDAY. THESE COOLER,
YET SEASONABLE, TEMPS ARE LIKELY TO PERSIST INTO THE WEEKEND AND
EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH ADDITIONAL CHANCES FOR RAIN ON FRIDAY AND EARLY
NEXT WEEK.
AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z THURSDAY/
ISSUED AT 625 AM CDT WED APR 22 2026
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH 06Z TONIGHT. HIGHER CLOUD
COVER WILL START TO INCREASE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING
GENERALLY AT OR ABOVE 10KFT. EASTERLY WINDS OFF LAKE SUPERIOR
WILL CAUSE STRATUS TO FORM FOR KDLH AND THEN ALSO KHIB ABOUT 09Z
TONIGHT, BRINGING MVFR CEILINGS TO BOTH SITES. THERE IS
POTENTIAL FOR IFR CEILINGS FOR KDLH, BUT HAVE LEFT IT MVFR FOR
NOW. LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS EARLY THIS MORNING WILL GIVE WAY
TO BREEZY SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS STARTING ABOUT MID DAY TODAY.
GUSTS TO 15 TO 20 KNOTS ARE EXPECTED FOR KDLH AND KHYR, WITH 20
TO 25 KNOTS FOR KBRD, KHIB AND KINL. AFTER 02Z, STRONG SOUTH
WINDS ALOFT WILL PRODUCE LLWS FOR THE TERMINALS OF UP TO 40KTS.
SURFACE WINDS WILL STRENGTHEN ENOUGH AT KBRD FOR THE LLWS TO
DIMINISH TOWARDS 12Z.
MARINE /FOR NEARSHORE WATERS OF WESTERN LAKE SUPERIOR/
ISSUED AT 346 AM CDT WED APR 22 2026
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE PUSHES EAST THIS MORNING, WITH EAST TO
NORTHEASTERLY WINDS INCREASING TODAY, TO GUST INTO THE 15 TO 20
KNOT RANGE FOR SEVERAL HOURS THIS EVENING. THE NEXT PERIOD FOR
POTENTIAL HAZARDOUS CONDITIONS FOR SMALLER VESSELS IS THURSDAY
THROUGH FRIDAY. EAST TO NORTHEAST WINDS INCREASE ON THURSDAY,
LEADING TO BUILDING WAVES CAUSING BUILDING WAVES ALONG THE NORTH
SHORE. WINDS BACK INTO THE NORTH AND THEN NORTHWEST LATE
THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY. THERE WILL ALSO BE POTENTIAL FOR
STRONG THUNDERSTORMS ON THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT.
FOR THE OPEN WATER DISCUSSION, REFER TO THE NWS MARQUETTE AREA
FORECAST DISCUSSION AT WEATHER.GOV/MQT.
FIRE WEATHER
ISSUED AT 346 AM CDT WED APR 22 2026
CRITICAL TO NEAR CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS TO AFFECT THE
AREA ONCE AGAIN TODAY. MINIMUM RH VALUES WILL DROP INTO THE 15
TO 20 PERCENT RANGE WITH SOUTHERLY WIND GUSTS OF 20 TO 30 MPH
FOR THE AREAS AROUND THE BRAINERD LAKES, WHERE A RED FLAG
WARNING HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR TODAY. WINDS WILL BE LIGHTER FOR
AREAS FARTHER NORTHEAST, BUT JUST AS DRY, SO WE HAVE ISSUED A
SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT FOR MOST OF NORTHEAST MN.
WIDESPREAD SHOWERS WITH THUNDERSTORMS ARRIVE ON THURSDAY
AFTERNOON AND EVENING ALONG A COLD FRONT, WHICH WILL LIKELY
BRING A WETTING RAIN ACROSS THE REGION. A FEW STORMS MAY BECOME
STRONG TO SEVERE, WITH GUSTY AND ERRATIC WINDS AND THE POTENTIAL
FOR LARGE HAIL. EXPECT COOLER CONDITIONS ON FRIDAY INTO THE
WEEKEND WITH ADDITIONAL CHANCES FOR RAIN.
SEE THE FIRE WEATHER FORECAST PRODUCT FOR A MORE THOROUGH
BREAKDOWN OF FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS.
DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MN...RED FLAG WARNING FROM NOON TODAY TO 8 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR
MNZ018-025-026-033>036.
WI...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
UPDATE...LE
DISCUSSION...UNRUH
AVIATION...LE
MARINE...LE
FIRE WEATHER...LE
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