779
FXUS63 KDLH 052325
AFDDLH
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DULUTH MN
625 PM CDT MON OCT 5 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- SCATTERED RAIN SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING
MAINLY SOUTH OF A LINE FROM CASS LAKE TO GRAND RAPIDS TO TWO
HARBORS. A FEW RUMBLES OF THUNDER ARE POSSIBLE WITH THE
STRONGEST SHOWERS.
- A WARMUP IS EXPECTED TUESDAY WITH HIGH TEMPS 10-15 DEGREES
ABOVE NORMAL. A LITTLE COOLER THROUGH THE REST OF THE WEEK
WHILE STILL ON THE WARM SIDE OF NORMAL.
- SPARSE RAIN CHANCES RETURN LATE THIS WEEK. A MORE WIDESPREAD
CHANCE OF RAIN WILL ARRIVE EARLY NEXT WEEK.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 301 PM CDT MON OCT 5 2026
SYNOPSIS:
A MID-LEVEL RIDGE WAS LOCATED OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS AND
CANADIAN PRAIRIES THIS AFTERNOON WITH A CLOSED UPPER LOW OVER
NORTHERN QUEBEC. A SHORTWAVE TROUGH WAS FOUND EAST OF THE
ROCKIES FROM THE NEBRASKA PANHANDLE TO NORTHERN ALBERTA. A
SECOND TROUGH WAS POSITIONED OVER SOUTHERN MANITOBA AND THE
EASTERN DAKOTAS. A BROAD AREA OF ISENTROPIC ASCENT ALOFT
SUPPORTED AND AREA OF STRATUS AND CUMULUS CLOUDS OVER CENTRAL
MINNESOTA INTO PORTIONS OF EASTERN NORTH DAKOTA. AT THE SURFACE
DEVELOPING LOW PRESSURE WAS FOUND OVER CENTRAL SASKATCHEWAN WITH
A SERPENTINE WARM FRONT WHICH EXTENDED SOUTH OVER EASTERN
MONTANA AND SOUTHWEST NORTH DAKOTA THEN EAST ACROSS NORTHERN
SOUTH DAKOTA.
TONIGHT:
THE SURFACE WARM FRONT WILL LIFT NORTHEASTWARD ACROSS MINNESOTA
AND NORTHWEST WISCONSIN BY 7 AM TUESDAY AS THE SHORTWAVE
TROUGHS PROPAGATE EASTWARD. PERSISTENT ISENTROPIC ASCENT NORTH
OF THE WARM FRONT WILL SUPPORT SCATTERED SHOWER DEVELOPMENT OVER
WEST-CENTRAL MINNESOTA INITIALLY EXPANDING AND MOVING EASTWARD
INTO CENTRAL AND PORTIONS OF NORTHEAST MINNESOTA BY THIS
EVENING. 05.18Z RAP ANALYSIS REVEALS A BUBBLE OF <= 700 J/KG OF
MUCAPE OVER SOUTHEAST NORTH DAKOTA AND WEST-CENTRAL MINNESOTA.
THAT AREA OF MEAGER INSTABILITY WILL PROPAGATE NORTHEASTWARD
ACROSS CENTRAL AND PORTIONS OF NORTHEAST MINNESOTA THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING. A FEW WEAK THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE IN
THAT AREA. A 25-35 KT SOUTH-SOUTHWESTERLY LOW-LEVEL JET OVER
EASTERN SOUTH DAKOTA THIS AFTERNOON WILL ADVANCE NORTHEASTWARD
THIS EVENING AND WILL STRENGTHEN TO 25-45 KT OVERNIGHT. SOUTH OF
THE SURFACE WARM FRONT MOMENTUM TRANSFER MAY BE SUFFICIENT TO
GENERATE WIND GUSTS OF 15 TO 20 MPH OVER THE BRAINERD LAKES AND
EAST INTO NORTHWEST WISCONSIN. RAIN AMOUNTS FROM THE SHOWERS
WILL GENERALLY BE BETWEEN A TRACE AND A TENTH OF AN INCH. SOME
SPOTS MAY PICK UP AS MUCH AS TWO TENTHS OF AN INCH. AREAS ALONG
AND NORTH OF A LINE FROM PINE RIVER TO GRAND MARAIS WILL LIKELY
STAY DRY. SHOWERS AND PERHAPS A FEW STORMS WILL MOVE OUT OF
NORTHWEST WISCONSIN TUESDAY MORNING. A FEW SPOTS IN THE EASTERN
ARROWHEAD MAY SEE FROST DEVELOP IF SKIES CAN REMAIN CLEAR.
TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT:
SKIES WILL CLEAR FROM WEST TO EAST DURING THE DAY AND
TEMPERATURES WILL TREND WARMER IN THE WAKE OF THE WARM FRONT.
LOOK FOR HIGHS TUESDAY TO REACH THE MIDDLE 60S TO MIDDLE 70S,
AROUND 10-15 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL. GUSTY SOUTHERLY WINDS ARE
EXPECTED OVER NORTHWEST WISCONSIN INTO THE I-35 CORRIDOR OF
MINNESOTA AS THE LOW-LEVEL JET GRADUALLY WEAKENS AND PUSHES
EASTWARD DURING THE DAY. GUSTS OF 15-25 MPH ARE EXPECTED WITH
THE HIGHEST VALUES EAST OF A HAYWARD TO BAYFIELD LINE.
A COLD FRONT WILL ADVANCE SOUTHEASTWARD ACROSS NORTHERN
MINNESOTA INTO NORTHWEST WISCONSIN BY EARLY TUESDAY EVENING.
WINDS WILL VEER NORTHWESTERLY BEHIND THE COLD FRONT AND WILL
GRADUALLY WEAKEN DURING THE EVENING. LOW TEMPS WILL BE IN THE
UPPER 30S TO MIDDLE 40S.
WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT:
NORTHWEST FLOW IS FORECAST IN THE WAKE OF TUESDAY'S COLD FRONT.
TEMPERATURES WILL COOL SLIGHTLY WHILE REMAINING SEVERAL DEGREES
ABOVE NORMAL. DIURNAL SHOWER CHANCES ARE EXPECTED AS COLDER AIR
ALOFT ADVECTS EAST-SOUTHEAST OVER THE NORTHLAND. HIGHS WILL BE
IN THE LOW 60S TO NEAR 70 ON WEDNESDAY THEN UPPER 50S TO MIDDLE
60S THURSDAY AND FRIDAY.
SATURDAY INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK:
A MORE UNSETTLED PATTERN TAKES SHAPE SATURDAY INTO EARLY NEXT
WEEK. GUIDANCE INDICATES AN UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE WILL MOVE INTO THE
NORTHERN PLAINS AND CANADIAN PRAIRIES FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY
MORNING. A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IS FORECAST TO DEVELOP OVER
EASTERN MONTANA AND RIDE NORTHEASTWARD TOWARD JAMES BAY BY
SUNDAY MORNING. THAT PROGRESSION WILL PULL ANOTHER WARM FRONT
NORTHWARD ACROSS THE REGION WITH TEMPERATURES CLIMBING WELL
ABOVE NORMAL FOR SATURDAY. LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE AHEAD
OF THE FRONT SATURDAY. A COOL FRONT WILL FOLLOW ON SUNDAY AND
WILL STALL OUT OVER THE UPPER MIDWEST SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY
LEAVING A BAROCLINIC ZONE IN PLACE ACROSS MINNESOTA AND
WISCONSIN. WIDESPREAD SHOWER CHANCES ARE FORECAST SUNDAY THROUGH
TUESDAY.
AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z WEDNESDAY/
ISSUED AT 625 PM CDT MON OCT 5 2026
RADAR THIS EVENING SHOWS SOME SCATTERED SHOWERS MOVING ACROSS NORTH
CENTRAL MN WITH AN OCCASIONAL LIGHTNING STRIKE EMBEDDED WITHIN THIS
ACTIVITY. CEILINGS REMAIN VFR BUT VISIBILITY REDUCTIONS FROM
THE PASSING RAIN WILL BRIEFLY BRING FLIGHT CATEGORIES DOWN TO
MVFR/IFR. THIS SHOWERY ACTIVITY WILL CONTINUE EAST AND TAPER OFF
THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. A STRONG LOW LEVEL JET RAMPS UP
OUT OF THE SOUTHEAST INDUCING WIDESPREAD LOW LEVEL WIND SHEAR
OVERNIGHT. THE JET WILL WEAKEN TOMORROW MORNING WITH SOUTHERLY
WINDS INITIALLY TO START THE DAY, HOWEVER, A COLD FRONT
MARCHING ACROSS THE REGION WILL BRING AN ABRUPT WIND SHIFT TO
OUT OF THE NORTHWEST FOR THE AFTERNOON.
MARINE /FOR NEARSHORE WATERS OF WESTERN LAKE SUPERIOR/
ISSUED AT 301 PM CDT MON OCT 5 2026
WINDS BECOME SOUTHERLY TONIGHT AND VEER SOUTHWESTERLY TUESDAY.
WIND SPEEDS AND GUSTS WILL INCREASE IN RESPONSE TO A WARM FRONT
LIFTING NORTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE LAKE. THE FRONT WILL BE
ACCOMPANIED BY SCATTERED RAIN SHOWERS FROM EARLY THIS EVENING
THROUGH EARLY TUESDAY MORNING. WIND GUSTS OF 20-25 KT ARE
EXPECTED FOR PORTIONS OF THE SOUTH SHORE WATERS AND NEAR GRAND
PORTAGE. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES WERE ISSUED FOR THE LOCATIONS
AND TIMES WHEN CONDITIONS WILL BE THE MOST HAZARDOUS. A COLD
FRONT WILL ARRIVE TUESDAY EVENING. WINDS WILL VEER NORTHWESTERLY
BEHIND THAT FRONT AND SHOULD BECOME GUSTY AGAIN FOR WEDNESDAY.
ANOTHER ROUND OF SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED.
WINDS AND WAVES RELAX EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING BEFORE INCREASING
AGAIN THURSDAY. A PERIOD OF STRONGER WINDS AND MORE PERSISTENT
HAZARDOUS CONDITIONS FOR SMALL CRAFT WILL DEVELOP SATURDAY AND
PERSIST THROUGH NEXT MONDAY.
FOR THE OPEN WATER DISCUSSION, REFER TO THE NWS MARQUETTE AREA
FORECAST DISCUSSION AT WEATHER.GOV/MQT.
FIRE WEATHER
ISSUED AT 301 PM CDT MON OCT 5 2026
LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS ARE LIKELY THIS AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING
GENERALLY SOUTH OF A LINE FROM CASS LAKE TO GRAND RAPIDS TO TWO
HARBORS INCLUDING ALL OF NORTHWEST WISCONSIN. RAINFALL AMOUNTS
UP TO A TENTH OR TWO ARE POSSIBLE THOUGH LOWER TOTALS ARE
LIKELY. WARMER TUESDAY WITH SOUTH AND SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS OF
5-15 MPH WITH GUSTS OF 15-25 MPH WINDS VEER WESTERLY BY LATE
AFTERNOON OR EARLY EVENING. DRY CONDITIONS AND GUSTY NORTHWEST
WINDS ARE LIKELY BEHIND A COLD FRONT ON WEDNESDAY. NORTHWEST
WINDS OF 10-18 MPH WITH GUSTS OF 20-30 MPH ARE FORECAST.
AFTERNOON RH VALUES WILL DROP INTO THE 30-45 PERCENT RANGE.
PORTIONS OF NORTHWEST WISCONSIN MAY SEE RH VALUES BELOW 30
PERCENT. THE DRY AND GUSTY CONDITIONS WILL CAUSE HEIGHTENED FIRE
WEATHER CONDITIONS. THURSDAY AND FRIDAY APPEAR DRY WITH MINIMUM
RH VALUES 30-50 PERCENT THOUGH WINDS WON'T BE AS STRONG. CLOUDS
SHOULD INCREASE THIS WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK AND RAIN
CHANCES RETURN WHICH WILL LIMIT THE AFTERNOON DRYING POTENTIAL.
SEE THE FIRE WEATHER FORECAST PRODUCT FOR A MORE THOROUGH
BREAKDOWN OF FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS.
DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MN...NONE.
WI...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 4 AM TO 4 PM CDT TUESDAY FOR LSZ121-
140-148-150.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 10 AM TO 4 PM CDT TUESDAY FOR LSZ146-
147.
DISCUSSION...HUYCK
AVIATION...BRITT
MARINE...HUYCK
FIRE WEATHER...HUYCK
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