220  
FXUS63 KDLH 182343  
AFDDLH  
 
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION  
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DULUTH MN  
543 PM CST FRI JAN 18 2019  
   
SHORT TERM
 
(THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY)  
ISSUED AT 318 PM CST FRI JAN 18 2019  
 
ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN IN CONTROL THROUGH TONIGHT AND  
SATURDAY, DIPPING FROM CENTRAL MANITOBA SOUTH INTO THE RED RIVER  
VALLEY REGION OF THE ND/MN BORDER. THE RESULT WILL BE BITTERLY COLD  
WIND CHILLS OVERNIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING, ALONG WITH SOME  
LIGHT LAKE EFFECT SNOW ALONG THE SOUTH SHORE OF LAKE SUPERIOR.  
 
LIGHT NORTH TO NORTHWESTERLY WINDS WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE DAY  
SATURDAY WITH ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE SITUATED WEST OF THE NORTHLAND.  
THESE WINDS, COUPLED WITH VERY COLD TEMPERATURES, WILL LEAD TO  
BITTERLY COLD WIND CHILLS OVERNIGHT AND INTO SATURDAY MORNING, WITH  
VALUES RANGING FROM -25 TO -40 DEGREES F ACROSS NORTHEAST MINNESOTA.  
SOME UNCERTAINTY REGARDING THIS FORECAST REMAINS WITH BOTH THE GFS  
AND ECMWF MODELS INDICATING SOME LINGERING HIGH CIRRUS CLOUDS  
OVERNIGHT, WHICH COULD ASSIST IN LIMITING RADIATIONAL COOLING  
POTENTIAL OVER FAR NORTHERN MINNESOTA FOR THE EARLY PART OF THE  
NIGHT. WIND MAGNITUDES OF 3 KNOTS OR LESS SHOULD KEEP WIND CHILLS  
WARMER THAN -40 DEGREES F, SO DIDN'T ISSUE A WIND CHILL WARNING,  
DESPITE THE POTENTIAL FOR VALUES REACHING THESE THRESHOLDS. INSTEAD,  
WENT WITH A WIDESPREAD WIND CHILL ADVISORY ACROSS NORTHEAST  
MINNESOTA. ADDITIONALLY, CHANCES OF LIGHT LAKE EFFECT SNOW WILL  
PERSIST THROUGH THE DAY SATURDAY DUE TO VERY COLD 850 MB  
TEMPERATURES AND 1000-850 MB LAYER WINDS GENERALLY FROM THE NORTH OR  
NORTHEAST THROUGH THE DAY. MODEL SOUNDINGS SHOW THE THERMAL PROFILE  
AND THE AMOUNT OF MOISTURE AVAILABLE TO NOT BE IDEAL FOR HEAVY SNOW,  
PARTICULARLY WITH ICE CRYSTAL GROWTH IN TEMPERATURES COLDER THAN THE  
DENDRITIC GROWTH LAYER, SO NOT THINKING TOO MUCH IN TERMS OF SNOW  
ACCUMULATION. STILL, THINKING THAT SNOW ACCUMULATION THROUGH SUNDAY  
MORNING COULD RANGE BETWEEN 2 TO 5 INCHES ALONG THE HIGHER  
ELEVATIONS OF NORTHERN WISCONSIN, WHICH IS A BIT HIGHER COMPARED TO  
THE ENSEMBLE MEAN FROM THE SREF PLUMES.  
   
LONG TERM
 
(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)  
ISSUED AT 318 PM CST FRI JAN 18 2019  
 
CONTINUED COLD SATURDAY NIGHT, THEN TEMPERATURES WARM UP FOR  
SUNDAY INTO NEXT WEEK. A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL MOVE THROUGH  
THE REGION MONDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH TUESDAY AND WILL BRING  
WIDESPREAD SNOW TO THE NORTHLAND.  
 
ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE WILL GRADUALLY MOVE EASTWARD OUT OF ONTARIO  
SUNDAY. WITH THE CENTER OF THE HIGH JUST ACROSS THE BORDER OVER  
NORTHWEST ONTARIO, THINK WE'LL SEE EFFICIENT RADIATIONAL COOLING.  
LOW TEMPERATURES SUNDAY MORNING WILL DIP INTO THE TEENS TO 20S  
BELOW ZERO. A FEW READINGS NEAR -30 ARE POSSIBLE NEAR INL AND  
ALONG THE INTERNATIONAL BORDER. TEMPERATURES BEGIN TO WARM SUNDAY  
AS SOUTHERLY FLOW ALOFT DEVELOPS IN RESPONSE TO A SHORTWAVE  
TROUGH MOVING SOUTHEASTWARD ACROSS MINNESOTA. HIGHS SUNDAY WILL  
BE NEAR ZERO NORTH AND AROUND 10 DEGREES OVER NORTHWEST WISCONSIN.  
 
WARM AIR ADVECTION CONTINUES SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY. BY MONDAY  
AFTERNOON, A DEVELOPING AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL SLIDE INTO THE  
CENTRAL PLAINS WITH AN INVERTED TROUGH EXTENDING NORTH INTO THE  
UPPER MIDWEST. THE SURFACE LOW WILL PUSH EASTWARD ACROSS KANSAS  
AND THEN MAKE A LEFT TURN AT TOPEKA TO HEAD NORTHEAST ACROSS  
SOUTHERN WISCONSIN INTO NORTHERN LOWER MICHIGAN BY TUESDAY  
EVENING. THE INVERTED TROUGH WILL MOVE EASTWARD AS THE LOW LIFTS  
NORTHEAST. HEIGHT FALLS AND ISENTROPIC FORCING FOR ASCENT WILL  
BRING ACCUMULATING SNOW TO THE NORTHLAND FROM LATE MONDAY  
AFTERNOON THROUGH TUESDAY EVENING. WHILE THERE IS STILL A FAIR  
AMOUNT OF SPREAD IN THE DETERMINISTIC SOLUTIONS, IT SEEMS LIKELY  
MUCH OF THE NORTHLAND WILL PICK UP AT LEAST AN INCH OF SNOW, WITH  
SOME AREAS POTENTIALLY IN THE 3 TO 5 INCH RANGE, ESPECIALLY SOUTH  
OF A WALKER TO DULUTH, MN TO HURLEY, WI LINE. WIND SPEEDS OF 15  
TO 25 MPH ARE EXPECTED BEHIND THE TROUGH AXIS WHICH MAY RESULT IN  
BLOWING AND DRIFTING SNOW.  
 
ANOTHER SURGE OF ARCTIC AIR WILL FOLLOW THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM  
FOR MID-WEEK AND BEYOND. THE INITIAL SURGE OF COLD AIR WON'T BE  
AS DRASTIC AS THE BOUT WE'RE CURRENTLY UNDER WITH HIGHS IN THE  
SINGLE DIGITS AND TEENS WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY AND OVERNIGHT LOWS  
IN THE MID SINGLE DIGITS ABOVE ZERO TO NEAR 10 BELOW ZERO.  
 

 
   
AVIATION
 
(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SATURDAY EVENING)  
ISSUED AT 543 PM CST FRI JAN 18 2019  
 
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD FURTHER INTO THE REGION TONIGHT AND MUCH  
OF THE MID AND HIGH CLOUDS WILL DECREASE FROM NORTH TO SOUTH.  
COLD NORTHERLY WINDS OVER LAKE SUPERIOR WILL PRODUCE LAKE EFFECT  
SNOW AND MVFR CEILINGS. THE WIND WAS NORTHEAST IN SPOTS AND SOME  
OF THE MVFR CEILINGS WERE AS FAR WEST AT KMZH. AS THE WIND BACKS  
LATE TONIGHT THE MVFR CEILINGS WILL MOVE A BIT FURTHER EAST.  
 

 
   
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
 
 
DLH -18 1 -19 7 / 0 0 0 10  
INL -29 -6 -32 0 / 0 0 0 0  
BRD -17 2 -18 7 / 0 0 10 10  
HYR -5 9 -9 11 / 0 0 0 0  
ASX 0 9 -6 11 / 60 50 40 30  
 

 
   
DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
 
 
WI...NONE.  
MN...WIND CHILL ADVISORY UNTIL NOON CST SATURDAY FOR MNZ025-033>038.  
 
WIND CHILL ADVISORY UNTIL NOON CST SATURDAY FOR MNZ010>012-  
018>021-026.  
 
LS...NONE.  

 
 

 
 
SHORT TERM...JTS  
LONG TERM...HUYCK  
AVIATION...MELDE  
 
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