420
FXUS63 KDLH 042334
AFDDLH
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DULUTH MN
634 PM CDT SAT APR 4 2020
SHORT TERM
(THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 308 PM CDT SAT APR 4 2020
QUIET CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY AFTERNOON
BEFORE CHANCES OF A RAIN/SNOW MIX RETURNS TO THE NORTHLAND FOR
SUNDAY EVENING.
THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING WILL FIND SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE, ALONG
WITH AN 850 MB RIDGE AXIS PASSING THROUGH THE REGION. AS THE HIGH
PRESSURE PASSES THROUGH TONIGHT, SOME AREAS COULD DIP DOWN INTO THE
LOWER TO MIDDLE TEENS FOR LOWS DUE TO STRONG RADIATIONAL COOLING,
THANKS TO CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS. WE LEANED TOWARDS THE 10TH
PERCENTILE FOR TONIGHT'S LOWS, WITH THE COLDEST TEMPERATURES
EXPECTED OVER THE MINNESOTA ARROWHEAD AND NORTHWEST WISCONSIN. AS
THE HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE PASSES BY TO THE EAST LATE TONIGHT AND
AROUND SUNRISE, A STREAM OF CHANNELED VORTICITY WILL SKIM OUR
NORTHERN AREAS, ALONG WITH INCREASING WARM AIR ADVECTION WHICH MAY
RESULT IN SOME LIGHT SNOW FLURRIES OVER KOOCHICHING COUNTY. THIS
ACTIVITY WILL REMAIN LIGHT, AND NO ACCUMULATION IS ANTICIPATED.
SUNDAY WILL BE WARMER COMPARED TO TODAY, THANKS TO ENHANCED WARM AIR
ADVECTION DUE TO SOUTHERLY FLOW. SUNDAY WILL BE A LITTLE BREEZIER
THAN TODAY, WITH SUSTAINED WINDS BETWEEN 5 TO 15 MPH, AND GUSTS UP
TO 20 MPH. SUNDAY'S HIGHS WILL WARM INTO THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 50S. IT
WILL BE COOLER BY THE LAKE, THANKS TO THIS SOUTHERLY FLOW, WITH
AREAS NEAR GRAND MARAIS, ONLY WARMING TO THE LOWER 40S. THEN,
CHANCES OF A RAIN/SNOW MIX WILL INCREASE SUNDAY EVENING AS A SHALLOW
MID-LEVEL SHORTWAVE AND LOW-LEVEL WARM AIR ADVECTION WILL BRING
STRONGER LIFT TO THE REGION. ANY ACCUMULATIONS THAT RESULT FROM THE
SNOW SHOULD BE LIGHT, WITH ONLY UP TO A HALF-INCH POSSIBLE OVER LAKE
AND COOK COUNTIES, WITH LIGHTER AMOUNTS ELSEWHERE OVER NORTH-CENTRAL
MINNESOTA.
LONG TERM
(MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 328 PM CDT SAT APR 4 2020
EARLY IN THE WORK WEEK, A BAROCLINIC ZONE DRAPED FROM NORTH DAKOTA
EAST ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA INTO NORTHERN WISCONSIN WILL INTERACT
WITH AN INVERTED TROUGH AND A WEAK SHORTWAVE ALOFT TO BRING
PRECIPITATION CHANCES TO THE AREA FOR MONDAY. WHILE THE TROUGH
SLIDES OFF TO THE EAST, THE BAROCLINIC ZONE REMAINS, AND A
SHORTWAVE BEGINS MOVING IN ALOFT TO BRING MORE CHANCES FOR
PRECIPITATION TO THE AREA FOR MONDAY NIGHT AND ESPECIALLY ON
TUESDAY. GIVEN THE SET-UP, IT IS NO SURPRISE TO SEE SOME
POTENTIAL FOR RUMBLES OF THUNDER ON MONDAY AFTERNOON AND NIGHT, AS
WELL AS TUESDAY WHEN THE BETTER UPPER LEVEL DYNAMICS WITH
STEEPENING DEEP LEVEL LAPSE RATES MOVE THROUGH. OVERNIGHT LOWS
CURRENTLY FORECAST FOR MONDAY NIGHT SHOW THAT THERE MAY BE SOME
MIXED PRECIPITATION FOR THE ARROWHEAD, BUT CONFIDENCE IS NOT VERY
HIGH IN THIS, AND WE MAY END UP REMOVING IT AS WE GET CLOSER IN
TIME. NORTHEAST FLOW AND CLOUD COVER SHOULD KEEP MONDAY ON THE
COOL SIDE, BUT WARM AIR PUSHING INTO THE AREA FROM THE SOUTHWEST
ON TUESDAY SHOULD ALLOW AT LEAST PART OF THE AREA TO GET PRETTY
WARM, WITH HIGHS APPROACHING 60 FOR AREAS SOUTH OF HIGHWAY 2.
THE PATTERN REMAINS ACTIVE FOR THE AREA INTO NEXT WEEKEND. THE
UPPER LOW THAT FIRST SHOVED A SHORTWAVE AT US FOR TUESDAY PUSHES
CLOSER TO THE AREA FOR WEDNESDAY, AND BRING MORE CHANCES FOR
PRECIPITATION. IT WILL BE ACCOMPANIED BY A COLD FRONT THAT MOVES
THROUGH THE AREA DURING THE DAYTIME. THERE IS SOME POTENTIAL FOR
MORE THUNDER CHANCES AS WE SHOULD BE IN THE WARM SECTOR AHEAD OF THE
FRONT AND THERE WILL BE SOME DECENT DYNAMICS WITH THIS WAVE, BUT
HAVE LEFT THESE OUT FOR NOW, AND WE WILL HAVE TO RE-EVALUATE THAT
AS WE GET CLOSER. THE CLOUDS AND PRECIPITATION SHOULD PRODUCE
COOLER TEMPERATURES THAN TUESDAY, ESPECIALLY AS THE WARM SECTOR IS
PUSHED EAST FAIRLY QUICKLY DURING THE DAYTIME. THE UPPER LEVEL
LOW SETTLES OVER/EAST OF THE AREA FOR THURSDAY, BRINGING A COLD
POOL AT 850MB OVER THE AREA, AND DEEP CYCLONIC FLOW OVER THE AREA.
THIS SHOULD PRODUCE INSTABILITY SHOWERS BOTH THURSDAY AND FRIDAY,
AND HAVE KEPT TO CHANCES OR SLIGHT CHANCES FOR BOTH DAYS.
THURSDAY WILL BE THE COOLEST DAY OF THE WEEK WITH HIGHS ONLY IN
THE 40S. TEMPERATURES WILL MODERATE INTO THE WEEKEND AS THE UPPER
LOW PULLS OFF TO THE EAST, ALLOWING WARMER AIR TO MOVE INTO THE
AREA.
AVIATION
(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SUNDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 633 PM CDT SAT APR 4 2020
VFR CONDITIONS CONTINUE THROUGH THIS EVENING. HIGH PRESSURE WILL
SLOWLY DRIFT EAST THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD AND SOME HIGH CIRRUS
CLOUDS WILL BE POSSIBLE TONIGHT. A VERY WEAK WAVE MAY PASS THROUGH
NORTH CENTRAL MN TOMORROW MORNING GIVING WAY TO LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS
WITH CEILINGS EXPECTED TO REMAIN VFR. LOOK FOR WIND GUSTS BETWEEN 15-
20KTS AT SOME LOCATIONS BY MID MORNING AS THE HIGH PRESSURE BEGINS
TO EXIT THE NORTHLAND.
MARINE
ISSUED AT 308 PM CDT SAT APR 4 2020
SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL REMAIN FAIRLY LIGHT, GENERALLY BETWEEN 5 TO 15
KNOTS, THROUGH THE AFTERNOON, WEAKENING FURTHER THIS EVENING AS AN
AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS ACROSS WESTERN LAKE SUPERIOR. WINDS
TURN MORE SOUTHEASTERLY SUNDAY MORNING, THEN TURN MORE
NORTHWESTERLY BY THE AFTERNOON, GENERALLY BETWEEN 5 TO 10 KNOTS.
AN APPROACHING AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL BE THE CAUSE FOR THE
EASTERLY WINDS, AND THEY WILL CONTINUE INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK AND
MAY INCREASE TO 10 TO 15 KNOTS WITH HIGHER GUSTS MONDAY AND
TUESDAY, ESPECIALLY OVER THE FAR SOUTHWEST ARM OF THE LAKE. A FEW
THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE FOR MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY. NO
SEVERE WEATHER IS ANTICIPATED. A COLD FRONT WILL PASS THROUGH THE
REGION TUESDAY EVENING, CAUSING WINDS TO BECOME WEST/NORTHWEST.
THESE WINDS SHOULD STRENGTHEN AND COULD LEAD TO CONDITIONS
HAZARDOUS TO SMALL CRAFT ON WEDNESDAY.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
DLH 20 49 31 43 / 0 0 20 50
INL 17 51 30 50 / 10 10 40 20
BRD 22 56 36 56 / 0 0 30 30
HYR 17 55 35 54 / 0 0 10 50
ASX 17 54 33 49 / 0 0 20 50
DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
WI...NONE.
MN...NONE.
LS...NONE.
SHORT TERM...JTS
LONG TERM...LE
AVIATION...BRITT
MARINE...JTS
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