327
FXUS63 KDLH 111002
AFDDLH
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DULUTH MN
502 AM CDT SAT APR 11 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- DRY THROUGH THIS MORNING, THEN RAIN EXPANDS NORTHWARD INTO
THE NORTHLAND STARTING THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
- SEVERAL ROUNDS OF RAIN AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TONIGHT
THROUGH WEDNESDAY. SOME LOCATIONS MAY SEE 1-2"+ OF RAINFALL IN
THAT PERIOD, WITH HIGHEST POTENTIAL IN NORTHWEST WISCONSIN.
MINOR FLOODING IS POSSIBLE, MAINLY ALONG THE SOUTH SHORE AND
POSSIBLY THE ARROWHEAD OF MINNESOTA WHERE DEEPER SNOWPACK
REMAIN.
- ISOLATED STRONG TO MARGINALLY SEVERE STORMS ARE POSSIBLE IN
NORTHWEST WISCONSIN TONIGHT. LARGE HAIL WOULD BE THE MAIN
THREAT.
- ADDITIONAL ISOLATED STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE
POSSIBLE SUNDAY AND MONDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING. LARGE HAIL AND
GUSTY WINDS ARE THE MAIN THREATS. NORTHWEST WISCONSIN WILL
HAVE THE BEST CHANCE FOR SEEING ANY STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS.
UPDATE
ISSUED AT 325 AM CDT SAT APR 11 2026
NOW THROUGH MIDDAY TODAY:
PREDOMINATELY CLEAR SKIES EARLY THIS MORNING DUE TO HIGH
PRESSURE CENTERED OVER THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES REGION. EXPECT
LOWS AROUND SUNRISE TO BOTTOM OUT IN THE 20S TO AROUND 30F
ACROSS THE NORTHLAND. THIS WILL LIKELY BE THE LAST WIDESPREAD
BELOW-FREEZING NIGHT UNTIL LATE THIS COMING WEEK DUE TO A
PROLONGED PERIOD OF WARMER AIR MOVING INTO THE UPPER MIDWEST.
CLOUD COVER AND TEMPERATURES WILL RAPIDLY INCREASE FROM SOUTH
TO NORTH THROUGHOUT THE MORNING INTO EARLY AFTERNOON HOURS AS
INCREASING SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS AND A PLUME OF INCREASING
MOISTURE MOVE IN FROM THE SOUTH.
SEVERAL ROUNDS OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED
STARTING THIS AFTERNOON AND CONTINUING THROUGH TUESDAY
NIGHT/WEDNESDAY. DETAILS ON EACH ROUND ARE DESCRIBED BELOW.
THIS AFTERNOON - SUNDAY MORNING:
AS THE HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO DEPART TO OUR EAST, A
PROMINENT TONGUE OF MOISTURE WITH GULF ORIGINS WILL PUSH INTO
THE UPPER MIDWEST BY THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING AND LINGER INTO
SUNDAY, WITH PWATS APPROACHING UP TO 1" IN NE MN AND TO AROUND
1.25" IN NW WI. THE ATMOSPHERE WILL INITIALLY BE DRIER, SO
IT'LL TAKE SOME TIME TODAY FOR IT TO SATURATE UP. EVENTUALLY,
STARTING THIS AFTERNOON EXPANDING INTO TONIGHT, STRONG
ISENTROPIC UPGLIDE WILL DEVELOP ELEVATED SHOWERS FOR THIS
AFTERNOON, AND INCREASING EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY THIS
EVENING INTO TONIGHT AS STEEPER MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES AND
ELEVATED INSTABILITY MOVE OVERHEAD. RAIN RATES THIS AFTERNOON
SHOULD BE ON THE LIGHTER SIDE, BUT PICK UP WITH THE THUNDERSTORM
ACTIVITY TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY MORNING. RAIN AMOUNTS WITH THIS
INITIAL ROUND PEAK IN THE 0.3-0.75" RANGE IN NW WI, WITH
DECREASING AMOUNTS WITH NORTHWEST EXTENT INTO NE MN AND EVEN
LESS TOWARDS NORTH-CENTRAL MN. AS IS THE NATURE WITH
THUNDERSTORMS, LOCALIZED HIGHER AND LOWER AMOUNTS ARE LIKELY
DEPENDING ON WHERE EXACTLY THE THUNDERSTORMS TRACK. THERE IS
ALSO A LOW-END POTENTIAL (LEVEL 1 OF 5) FOR ISOLATED STRONG TO
SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS TONIGHT ALONG AND SOUTH OF A SPOONER TO
PARK FALLS LINE IN NW WI AS DEEP LAYER SHEAR OF 30-35 KT, STEEP
MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES, AND MUCAPE OF AROUND 1000 J/KG WOULD BE
SUFFICIENT FOR ISOLATED ORGANIZED THUNDERSTORMS WITH THE
POTENTIAL FOR LARGE HAIL UP TO THE SIZE OF QUARTERS.
MOST HIGH-RES GUIDANCE SHOWS SHOWER/STORM COVERAGE DECREASING
FROM SW TO NE ACROSS MUCH OF THE NORTHLAND FOR SUNDAY MORNING
INTO MIDDAY AS THE WARM FRONT SURGES NORTH, SETTING THE STAGE
FOR THE NEXT ROUND OF SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL FOR
SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
SUNDAY AFTERNOON - SUNDAY NIGHT:
THERE ARE A COUPLE AREAS OF CONDITIONAL STRONG TO SEVERE
THUNDERSTORM THREATS IN THE SUNDAY AFTERNOON TO SUNDAY EVENING
TIMEFRAME. THE FIRST WOULD BE WITH AND AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT
IN THE WARM SECTOR. BY THE TIME THE SURFACE CAPPING INVERSION
DUE TO DAYTIME HEATING WOULD POSSIBLY BREAK IN THE LATE
AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING, THE COLD FRONT WOULD ALREADY BE
IMPINGING ON THE I-35 CORRIDOR AND CONTINUE TRACKING EASTWARD
THROUGH NW WI THROUGH THE MID-EVENING HOURS, SO THE WINDOW OF
TIME FOR SEVERE POTENTIAL IN THIS AREA WOULD BE LIMITED TO ABOUT
4-6 HOURS. THE BETTER UPPER-LEVEL FORCING ASSOCIATED WITH THE
MID/UPPER-LEVEL TROUGHS ARE ALSO FARTHER NORTHWEST AND MAY MOVE
THROUGH TOO QUICKLY TO KICK OFF CONVECTION ALONG AND AHEAD OF
THE COLD FRONT. HOWEVER, IF THE FORCING CAN LINE UP WITH CAPPING
INVERSION BREAKING IN THE LATE AFTERNOON INTO MID-EVENING, THEN
THE ATMOSPHERE WOULD BE PRIMED ENOUGH WITH 1000-1500 J/KG OF
SBCAPE, 30-40 KT OF 0-6KM BULK SHEAR, 7-7.5 DEG/KM MID-LEVEL
LAPSE RATES, AND EVEN SOME DOWNDRAFT CAPE APPROACHING OR
EXCEEDING 1000 J/KG. THIS SEVERE PARAMETER SPACE WOULD BE
CONDUCIVE FOR A FEW DISCRETE STORMS THAT COULD PRODUCE LARGE
HAIL AND DAMAGING WIND THREATS SHOULD STORMS DEVELOP. THE SPC
DAY 1 MARGINAL CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK HIGHLIGHTS THIS AREA WELL.
THERE IS A NON-ZERO POTENTIAL FOR A TORNADO IN THE LATE
AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING FOR THE ST. CROIX RIVER VALLEY EAST INTO
INLAND NW WI, BUT GIVEN FORECAST 0-1KM SRH VALUES OF GENERALLY
LESS THAN 200 M2/S2 AND LCL HEIGHTS AROUND 1200-1400 METERS OR
GREATER, THE TORNADO THREAT REMAINS VERY LOW.
THE SECOND AREA OF CONDITIONAL STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM
THREATS WOULD BE WOULD BE ACROSS FAR NORTHERN MN NEAR THE
INTERNATIONAL BORDER CLOSEST TO WHERE THE SURFACE LOW WILL TRACK
IN CONJUNCTION WITH THE SHORTWAVE MID AND UPPER-LEVEL TROUGHS
AND NEAREST THE WARM FRONT AND A SECONDARY COLD FRONT DURING THE
MID-AFTERNOON UNTIL AROUND SUNSET. SEEING AS THIS AREA WILL
HAVE LESS DAYTIME HEATING DUE TO LATER DURATION OF MORNING
CONVECTION, THERE REMAINS SOME QUESTION AS TO HOW MUCH
INSTABILITY WILL BE AVAILABLE AND WHETHER OR NOT STORMS CAN
BECOME SURFACE-BASED. IF THEY DO BECOME SURFACE-BASED, THERE MAY
BE A 2-5 HOUR WINDOW OF TIME WHERE THE ENVIRONMENT WOULD BE
CONDITIONALLY SUPPORTIVE OF STRONG TO MARGINALLY SEVERE HAIL AND
DAMAGING WIND GUSTS BEFORE THE SECONDARY COLD FRONT AND STEEPER
LAPSE RATES ALOFT PUSH EAST OF THE INTERNATIONAL
BORDER/ARROWHEAD REGION. SOME CAMS ALSO SUGGEST THAT EVEN IF
STORMS DO DEVELOP, THEY MAY REMAIN JUST NORTH OF THE
INTERNATIONAL BORDER, AS WELL.
OUTSIDE OF THUNDERSTORMS, EXPECT A VERY WARM SPRING DAY TO SHAPE
UP FOR SUNDAY, WITH MANY LOCATIONS SEEING HIGHS IN THE UPPER 60S
TO MID 70S, THOUGH RELATIVELY COOLER TEMPERATURES WILL LIKELY BE
SEEN NEAR LAKE SUPERIOR, IN THE ARROWHEAD, AND NEAR THE
INTERNATIONAL BORDER. LOOK FOR A LULL IN PRECIPITATION FOR THE
NORTHLAND SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY MORNING.
MONDAY AFTERNOON - TUESDAY MORNING:
STILL SOME UNCERTAINTY REGARDING ANOTHER PERIOD OF CONDITIONAL
STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL MONDAY AFTERNOON AND
EVENING. ANOTHER LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM AND ATTENDANT WARM FRONT
WILL LIKELY PUSH THROUGH SOUTH-CENTRAL MN INTO NORTHERN
WI LATE MONDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT, BRINGING ANOTHER ROUND OF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WITH IT. THERE REMAINS SOME QUESTION
AMONG GLOBAL MODEL ENSEMBLES AND THE FEW HIGHER-RES MODELS AS TO
HOW FAR NORTH THE WARM FRONT/WARM SECTOR AND ASSOCIATED
INSTABILITY MAKE IT INTO THE NORTHLAND. AS OF NOW, THE FAVORED
AREA FOR THE WARM FRONT TO GET NORTH TO WOULD BE FROM NEAR OR
JUST SOUTH OF THE BRAINERD LAKES EAST INTO NW WI, THOUGH ONSHORE
FLOW/LAKE BREEZE FROM LAKE SUPERIOR MAY IMPINGE ON THE NORTHERN
EXTENT OF THE WARM SECTOR IN NW WI. A CAPPING INVERSION MAY
ALSO PLAY A FACTOR IN PREVENTING BETTER COVERAGE/DEVELOPMENT OF
THUNDERSTORMS. HOWEVER, SHOULD STORMS DEVELOP, THE ENVIRONMENT
IS ONCE AGAIN FAVORABLE FOR A CONDITIONAL STRONG TO SEVERE STORM
THREAT IN THE VICINITY OF THE WARM FRONT AND AREAS SOUTH INTO
THE WARM SECTOR. STEEP LAPSE RATES ALOFT WOULD FAVOR LARGE HAIL
AS THE MAIN THREAT, THOUGH DAMAGING WIND COULD ALSO BE POSSIBLE
IF STORMS CAN BECOME ORGANIZED NORTH OF THE WARM FRONT OR THE
WARM FRONT PUSHES FAR ENOUGH NORTH INTO OUR SOUTHERN COUNTIES TO
ALLOW FOR SURFACE-BASED THUNDERSTORMS. THERE HASN'T BEEN MUCH
CONSISTENCY IN MODELS REGARDING STORM MORPHOLOGY, BUT IT SHOULD
BE NOTED THAT A LIMITED SUBSET OF THE MODEL GUIDANCE DOES
ATTEMPT TO MERGE STORMS INTO A BOWING LINE THROUGH CENTRAL MN
INTO THE TWIN PORTS/I-35 CORRIDOR AND NW WI LATE MONDAY
AFTERNOON AND EVENING IN ASSOCIATION WITH A MID/UPPER-LEVEL
SHORTWAVE. SHOULD A LINEAR SEGMENT DEVELOP, THEN THE DAMAGING
WIND POTENTIAL WOULD ALSO INCREASE. SHOWERS AND STORMS SHOULD
COME TO AN END MONDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY TUESDAY MORNING,
BRINGING ANOTHER LULL IN PRECIPITATION WITH IT.
TUESDAY AFTERNOON - WEDNESDAY:
YET ANOTHER SURFACE LOW PRESSURE IS POISED TO TRACK NORTHEAST
THROUGH SOUTHERN MN INTO WEST-CENTRAL OR NORTHERN WI FROM LATE
TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY AS A STRONGER, COMPACT UPPER-LEVEL
TROUGH MOVES THROUGH. THERE IS LOWER CONFIDENCE IN THE TRACK OF
THE LOW PRESSURE WITH THIS SYSTEM. EXPECT ANOTHER ROUND OF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS AS THIS SYSTEM PASSES THROUGH. FOR
NOW, THE MAIN SEVERE POTENTIAL IS LARGELY SOUTH OF THE
NORTHLAND. HOWEVER, DEPENDING ON THE PROXIMITY OF THE WARM
FRONT AND WARM SECTOR TO NW WI, WE MAY SEE ANOTHER STRONG TO
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL IN PORTIONS OF NW WI LATE
TUESDAY/TUESDAY NIGHT. PRECIPITATION SHOULD CONTINUE INTO
WEDNESDAY MORNING AND EVENTUALLY COME TO AN END WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON OR EVENING DEPENDING ON HOW QUICKLY THE LOW PRESSURE
DEPARTS. TEMPERATURES IN THE TUESDAY-WEDNESDAY TIMEFRAME HAVE
CONTINUED TO TREND UPWARDS, SO PRECIPITATION IS FAVORED TO STAY
AS ALL RAIN WITH THIS FORECAST UPDATE.
BEYOND WEDNESDAY:
NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO THE FORECAST IN THIS TIMEFRAME DUE TO
HIGH MODEL VARIABILITY. THIS TIMEFRAME OF THE PREVIOUS
DISCUSSION REMAINS VALID.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 253 PM CDT FRI APR 10 2026
CURRENT WEATHER:
WE WARMLY WELCOME SPRING BACK TO THE NORTHLAND WITH SOME
TEMPERATURES IN THE 40S THIS AFTERNOON. HIGH PRESSURE IS
BRINGING WITH IT PLENTY OF SUNSHINE, THOUGH THERE ARE PLENTY OF
DIURNAL CUMULUS CLOUD OUT THERE. WITH MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES
TONIGHT, EXPECT TEMPERATURES TO FALL BELOW FREEZING, BUT THIS
WILL LIKELY BE THE LAST WIDESPREAD BELOW- FREEZING NIGHT FOR
SEVERAL DAYS AS WE GET MUCH WARMER AIR MOVING INTO THE REGION.
SEVERAL ROUNDS OF RAIN ARE EXPECTED STARTING SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND
LASTING THROUGH APPROXIMATELY WEDNESDAY. DETAILS ARE BELOW.
SATURDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT:
BROAD SOUTHERLY FLOW UNDERNEATH THE EASTERN SIDE OF A BROAD
RIDGE WILL BRING A NOTEWORTHY STREAM OF MOISTURE INTO THE UPPER
MIDWEST FROM THE GULF OF AMERICA. ROBUST ISENTROPIC UPGLIDE IS
EXPECTED SATURDAY INTO SATURDAY NIGHT, AND INITIALLY IT SHOULD
TAKE A WHILE FOR SATURATION TO TAKE PLACE ON SATURDAY WITH
LINGERING DRY AIR IN PLACE. IT WILL LIKELY BE THE USUAL
INCREASING CLOUDS AND EVENTUALLY RAIN MAKING ITS WAY NORTH
STARTING SATURDAY AFTERNOON. FOR SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING,
THIS SHOULD BE LARGELY SYNOPTICALLY DRIVEN RAIN, THOUGH
ELEVATED LAPSE RATES AND INSTABILITY ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE
OVERNIGHT, SO THUNDER WILL BE POSSIBLE. AS FAR AS RAINFALL
AMOUNTS GO, IT IS LOOKING LIKE THERE WILL BE A BIT OF A MOISTURE
GRADIENT WITH PWATS UP TO AROUND 1.25" IN NW WI AND UP TO 1" IN
NE MN. NORTHWEST WISCONSIN SHOULD THEREFORE SEE THE BRUNT OF
THE RAINFALL SATURDAY NIGHT WITH THIS FIRST ROUND. ENSEMBLES ARE
NOT NECESSARILY IN EXACT AGREEMENT WITH AMOUNTS, WITH A MEAN
AROUND 0.3 TO 0.6" IN NW WI INTO SUNDAY MORNING. CLUSTERING IS
NOT GREAT THOUGH, AND WITH AT LEAST SOME CONVECTIVE PROCESSES
EXPECTED, WE CAN EXPECT LOCALLY HIGHER AND LOWER AMOUNTS.
AS WE GO INTO SUNDAY, IT'S STILL LOOKING LIKE WE HOLD ON TO A
CONDITIONAL THREAT FOR ISOLATED STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS. WE
WILL HAVE VERY WARM AND MOIST AIR STREAMING UP INTO THE NORTHLAND
AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT THAT IS EXPECTED TO PASS THROUGH SOMETIME IN
THE EVENING. WE SHOULD SEE SOME ELEVATED AND POSSIBLY (DEPENDING HOW
FAR NORTH THE WARM FRONT CAN MAKE IT) SURFACE-BASED INSTABILITY
SUNDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING. THERMAL PROFILES IN NW WI SHOW DEEP NEAR-
SURFACE MOISTURE WITH SOMEWHAT STEEP LAPSE RATES AND DRY AIR ALOFT.
MUCAPE IS LOOKING TO MAX OUT SOMEWHERE BETWEEN 1000 AND 1500 J/KG,
SO SEVERE WEATHER MAY NOT BE WIDESPREAD, BUT WE COULD GET A FEW
STORMS CAPABLE OF SOME LARGE HAIL AND/OR DAMAGING WINDS. OUTSIDE
OF STORMS, IT IS GOING TO BE WARM! MANY PLACES IN EAST-CENTRAL
MN INTO NW WI SHOULD SEE UPPER 60S TO LOW 70S FOR HIGHS.
AS A COLD FRONT PASSES THROUGH SUNDAY EVENING, WE MAY ACTUALLY
SWITCH INTO A BRIEF DRY PERIOD LATER SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH
MONDAY MORNING.
MONDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING:
ANOTHER LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL MAKE ITS WAY THROUGH WITH WARM
AIR ADVECTION IN ITS WAKE. BROAD SURFACE-BASED INSTABILITY IS
EXPECTED FOR A GOOD CHUNK OF WISCONSIN MONDAY AFTERNOON WITH
ANOTHER DAY OF HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE 70S. THERE'S STILL
UNCERTAINTY ON HOW FAR NORTH THE SURFACE- BASED INSTABILITY WILL
MAKE IT, SO THIS WILL BE ANOTHER CONDITIONAL THREAT FOR ANY
STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS IN NORTHWEST WISCONSIN. IF THERE ARE
ANY, LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS WILL BE THE MAIN THREATS.
REALLY THE BIG TRICK WITH MONDAY MIGHT BE DEALING WITH A LAKE
BREEZE AS WINDS SHIFT TO NORTHEASTERLY BY THE LAKE BUT REMAIN
SOUTHERLY DOWN TOWARDS PRICE COUNTY. EITHER WAY, WE WILL
PROBABLY SEE ANOTHER ROUND OF RAIN, THOUGH IT MAY BE SLIGHTLY
LESS INTENSE COMPARED TO SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY.
TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY:
ANOTHER SURFACE LOW IS LIKELY TO PASS OVER WISCONSIN WITH A
POTENT UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH ALOFT. THIS ONE WAS ORIGINALLY LOOKING
A BIT COLDER SUCH THAT SOME MIXED PRECIPITATION COULD HAVE BEEN
POSSIBLE, BUT NOW IT'S LOOKING LIKE WE SHOULD REMAIN ALL RAIN.
WE MAY HAVE ENOUGH EMBEDDED INSTABILITY FOR A FEW THUNDERSTORMS,
BUT SEVERE WEATHER IS NOT EXPECTED. AFTER A COLD FRONT PASSES
THROUGH SOMETIME AROUND WEDNESDAY MORNING, THE RAIN SHOULD
EVENTUALLY END.
LATE WEEK INTO NEXT WEEKEND:
WE ARE LOOKING TO REMAIN IN A RELATIVELY WAVY UPPER-LEVEL
PATTERN TO END THE WEEK. AFTER A BRIEF PERIOD OF COOLER
TEMPERATURES MID-WEEK, WE COULD SEE ANOTHER DAY OF SOUTHERLY
FLOW AND TEMPERATURES RISING INTO THE 70S. MODELS ARE GENERALLY
SUGGESTING A DEEP TROUGH TO THE WEST THAT WOULD CREATE A
COLORADO-STYLE LOW PASSING THROUGH SOMEWHERE IN THE MIDWEST
FOLLOWED BY A BLAST OF MUCH COOLER AIR TO BRING US INTO THE
WEEKEND. IT'S POSSIBLE WE COULD SEE ANYTHING FROM THUNDERSTORMS
TO MIXED PRECIPITATION DEPENDING ON THE TRACK OF THE LOW AND
ASSOCIATED FRONTS. MODELS ARE TOO DIVERSE IN WHERE ANY LOWS
MIGHT TRACK RIGHT NOW, EXCEPT TO SAY THE MIDWEST IN GENERAL.
AFTER SEEING SEVERAL DAYS OF ABOVE FREEZING TEMPERATURES (EVEN
AT NIGHT), WE MAY SEE LOWS FALL BELOW FREEZING AGAIN PERHAPS
AROUND FRIDAY NIGHT.
AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY/
ISSUED AT 1250 AM CDT SAT APR 11 2026
VFR CONDITIONS PREVAIL UNTIL LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
AN AREA OF BKN TO OVC CLOUDS AT 5KFT OR GREATER NEAR THE
INTERNATIONAL BORDER CONTINUE TO EXIT NORTHEAST OVER THE NEXT
FEW HOURS. WINDS WILL BE CALM TO LIGHT AND VARIABLE OVERNIGHT
BUT INCREASE OUT OF THE SOUTHEAST STARTING THIS MORNING WITH
LATE MORNING THROUGH END OF 06Z TAF PERIOD GUSTS OF 18-25 KT.
EXPECT LLWS TO DEVELOP SATURDAY EVENING INTO SATURDAY NIGHT
GIVEN AN INCREASING LOW-LEVEL JET.
RAIN SHOWERS SPREAD NORTHWARD STARTING MID TO LATE THIS
AFTERNOON AND EXPANDING TO BECOME MORE WIDESPREAD SATURDAY
EVENING INTO TONIGHT. BRD/DLH/HYR HAVE THE BEST POTENTIAL TO SEE
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS AS RAIN EXPANDS NORTHWARD, BUT LOWER
COVERAGE AND LOWER CONFIDENCE IN DIRECT IMPACTS TO TERMINALS
PRECLUDES TSRA MENTION OUTSIDE OF PROB30 GROUPS AT THIS TIME.
EXPECT RAPIDLY DETERIORATING CIGS AND VIS HEADING INTO SATURDAY
EVENING AND SATURDAY NIGHT.
MARINE /FOR NEARSHORE WATERS OF WESTERN LAKE SUPERIOR/
ISSUED AT 325 AM CDT SAT APR 11 2026
NO MAJOR MARINE CONCERNS ARE EXPECTED IN THE NEXT 48 HOURS.
WINDS BECOME EASTERLY TODAY WITH GUSTS LARGELY TO 15 KT OR LESS,
THOUGH FUNNELING IN THE SW ARM OF LAKE SUPERIOR COULD BUMP WINDS
UP LOCALLY THERE TO AROUND 20 KT THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
WINDS BECOME SOUTHERLY ALONG THE SOUTH SHORE ON SUNDAY WITH A
FEW GUSTS THAT COULD APPROACH AROUND 20 KT. EXPECT RAIN AND
POSSIBLY SOME THUNDERSTORMS TO MOVE IN STARTING LATE THIS
AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT WITH SEVERAL ADDITIONAL ROUNDS OF SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS ON SUNDAY INTO WEDNESDAY.
FOR THE OPEN WATER DISCUSSION, REFER TO THE NWS MARQUETTE AREA
FORECAST DISCUSSION AT WEATHER.GOV/MQT.
FIRE WEATHER
ISSUED AT 325 AM CDT SAT APR 11 2026
CONDITIONS START OUT DRIER THIS MORNING INTO MIDDAY AS HIGH
PRESSURE EXITS EAST AND PRIOR TO MOISTURE RETURNING WITH LOW
PRESSURE COMING IN. AS SUCH, WIDESPREAD SHOWERS WITH EMBEDDED
STORMS DON'T LOOK TO GET TO THE BRAINERD LAKES AND NW WI UNTIL
THIS AFTERNOON AND GRADUALLY SPREAD NORTH DURING THE MID-LATE
AFTERNOON INTO EVENING HOURS, BECOMING MORE WIDESPREAD THIS
EVENING INTO EARLY SUNDAY. GIVEN THE DELAYED ARRIVAL OF
PRECIPITATION, MINIMUM RH VALUES OF 30-40% ARE POSSIBLE IN NW WI
AND THE I-35 CORRIDOR IN THE MIDDAY-EARLY AFTERNOON TIMEFRAME
AND ACROSS THE IRON RANGE AND NORTH-CENTRAL MN DURING THE
AFTERNOON HOURS ALONGSIDE SOUTHEAST WINDS GUSTING TO 15-20 MPH.
PRECIPITATION WILL GRADUALLY END FROM SW TO NE SUNDAY MORNING
TO MIDDAY SUNDAY, SO THERE COULD BE A PERIOD OF TIME SUNDAY
AFTERNOON WHERE MIN RH VALUES DROP TO 30-45% ALONGSIDE STRONG
SOUTHERLY WINDS GUSTING TO 20-30 MPH BEFORE A COLD FRONT MOVES
THROUGH.
SEVERAL ADDITIONAL ROUNDS OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE
EXPECTED FOR LATE SUNDAY INTO WEDNESDAY, THOUGH THERE WILL
LIKELY BE SHORT BREAKS LATE EACH NIGHT INTO MIDDAY BETWEEN EACH
ROUND. THE REPEATED ROUNDS OF PRECIPITATION WILL LIKELY KEEP
FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS MINIMAL EARLY TO MID NEXT WEEK. WE MAY
HAVE A DRY, WARM, AND POSSIBLY BREEZY DAY ON THURSDAY WITH SOME
SOUTHERLY WINDS BEFORE ANOTHER ROUND OF PRECIPITATION ARRIVES
LATE THIS COMING WEEK.
SEE THE FIRE WEATHER FORECAST PRODUCT FOR A MORE THOROUGH
BREAKDOWN OF FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS.
HYDROLOGY
ISSUED AT 503 AM CDT SAT APR 11 2026
NO CHANGES TO THE FLOOD WATCH FOR BAYFIELD, ASHLAND, AND IRON
COUNTIES IN WISCONSIN FOR THIS EVENING THROUGH EARLY WEDNESDAY
MORNING. THE WATCH REMAINS MEDIUM CONFIDENCE AS IT WILL BE LESS
THE TRADITIONAL SENSE FOR FLASH FLOODING POTENTIAL AND MORE INTO
THE POTENTIAL FOR AROUND 1-2" OF RAIN OVER SEVERAL DAYS COMBINED
WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR 1-5 INCHES OF SNOW WATER TO MELT OUT OF
THE REMAINING SNOWPACK. THERE HAS BEEN A TREND WITH THE LATEST
FORECAST FOR A SLIGHT DECREASE IN RAINFALL AMOUNTS FOR THE NORTH
SHORE AND NORTHWEST WISCONSIN BOTH FOR THE SATURDAY AFTERNOON -
SUNDAY MORNING TIMEFRAME AND FOR THE TOTAL ACCUMULATIONS
THROUGHOUT THE SEVERAL ROUNDS OF SHOWERS AND STORMS AS A WHOLE.
GIVEN THE CONVECTIVE NATURE OF THE PRECIPITATION, SOME POCKETS
OF LOCALLY HIGHER AND LOWER RAINFALL TOTALS WILL BE POSSIBLE.
THE PRECIPITATION FROM THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING
WILL SET THE STAGE FOR SUBSEQUENT ROUNDS OF FLOODING POTENTIAL.
SHOULD THIS FIRST ROUND CONTINUE TRENDING DOWN REGARDING
PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS, THEN FLOODING CONCERNS THROUGH EARLY NEXT
WEEK WOULD ALSO DECREASE.
WE WILL STILL NEED TO MONITOR FOR RIVER RISE/FLOOD CONCERNS
ALONG THE NORTH SHORE AS WELL GIVEN THE DEEPER SNOWPACK TO 12-24"+
OF SNOW DEPTH AND SNOW WATER EQUIVALENTS OF 5-7"+ THERE.
HOWEVER, THE TREND HAS BEEN FOR THE HEAVIEST RAIN TO REMAIN
SOUTH OF THE NORTH SHORE. ADDITIONALLY, DESPITE TEMPERATURES
FORECAST TO BE ABOVE FREEZING FOR SEVERAL DAYS IN A ROW, LAKE
SUPERIOR WILL KEEP THE NORTH SHORE HIGH TEMPERATURES ABOUT
10-20F COLDER AND LOW TEMPERATURES 5-15F COLDER THAN AREAS
FARTHER INLAND. THIS SHOULD SLOW THE SNOWMELT PROCESS THERE
RELATIVE TO THE SOUTH SHORE. SHOULD PRECIPITATION FORECASTS
AND/OR TEMPERATURE FORECASTS INCREASE FOR THE NORTH SHORE FOR
TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY, THEN FLOOD HEADLINES MAY BE NEEDED.
AS FOR RIVER AND STREAM CONCERNS, THE HIGHEST POTENTIAL FOR
MINOR FLOODING REMAINS WITH THE TYLER FORKS NEAR MELLEN, WHICH
COULD SEE MINOR FLOODING BY LATE MONDAY OR EARLY TUESDAY
DEPENDING ON HOW HEAVY THE FIRST COUPLE ROUNDS OF RAIN ARE. THE
BAD RIVER AND NEMADJI RIVERS ALSO HAVE SOME POTENTIAL TO RISE
INTO ACTION STAGE IN THE MONDAY TO TUESDAY TIMEFRAME DEPENDING
ON HEAVY RAIN LOCATIONS AND AMOUNTS.
DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MN...NONE.
WI...FLOOD WATCH FROM THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING FOR
WIZ002>004.
MARINE...NONE.
UPDATE...ROTHSTEIN
DISCUSSION...JDS
AVIATION...ROTHSTEIN
MARINE...ROTHSTEIN
FIRE WEATHER...ROTHSTEIN
HYDROLOGY...ROTHSTEIN
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