741
FXUS63 KDLH 192328
AFDDLH
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DULUTH MN
628 PM CDT FRI AUG 19 2022
DISCUSSION
(THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 240 PM CDT FRI AUG 19 2022
SUMMARY: A CUT OFF LOW WILL CONTINUE TO SAG SOUTH ACROSS CENTRAL MN
SPAWNING SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. NO
SEVERE WEATHER IS ANTICIPATED BUT DUE TO THE COPIOUS AMOUNTS OF
MOISTURE CERTAIN SECTORS OF OUR CWA HAVE SEEN OVER THE PAST WEEK
FLASH FLOODING REMAINS A CONCERN. SHOWERY ACTIVITY WILL TAPER OFF
OVERNIGHT WITH THE CHANCE FOR FOG TO SEEP ACROSS MUCH OF THE REGION.
RAIN CHANCES SHIFT TOWARDS WI FOR TOMORROW AFTERNOON BEFORE CLEARING
SKIES AND HIGHS IN THE UPPER 70S FOR SUNDAY.
SATELLITE AND RADAR THIS AFTERNOON SHOWCASES COUNTERCLOCKWISE
ROTATION AROUND THE VERTICALLY STACKED LOW OVER CENTRAL MN.
SCATTERED SHOWER AND STORMS WILL REMAIN IN THE FORECAST THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS AS THIS LOW SLOWLY MIGRATES SOUTH. SOME
SLIGHT CLEARING IN CLOUD COVER AROUND MID DAY HAS ALLOWED SOME
INSTABILITY TO BUILD THIS AFTERNOON. MODEL SOUNDING PROFILES STILL
SUGGEST A MOIST ENVIRONMENT WITH PW VALUES AROUND THE 90TH
PERCENTILE OF CLIMATOLOGY.
AS WE HAVE SEEN OVER THE PAST SEVERAL DAYS THE MAIN CONCERN IS THE
POSSIBILITY OF FLASH FLOODING. LACK OF OVERALL SHEAR WILL LIMIT THE
GROWTH OF ANY STORMS BUT THE SLOW MOVING NATURE AND TRAINING STORMS
OVER THE ALREADY RAIN SOAKED AREAS COULD LEAD TO SOME MINOR
FLOODING. THE CAMS ARE TRYING TO PIN POINT A LINE OF SHOWERS AND
STORM DEVELOPING ALONG A WARM FRONTAL BOUNDARY EXTENDING ACROSS
NORTHERN MN THIS AFTERNOON. DEPENDING ON WHERE THIS BAND SETS UP WE
WE MAY SEE ADDITIONAL FLOOD HEADLINES ISSUED. RADAR DERIVED RAIN
TOTALS OVER THE PAST 72 HRS HAS SOME HOT SPOTS FROM NORTHERN CASS
UP THROUGH KOOCHICHING AND NORTHERN ST. LOUIS COUNTIES.
SHOWERY CHANCES WILL TAPER OFF THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD AS THE
LOW PULLS FURTHER SOUTH AND WE LOSE OUR INSTABILITY. WE MAY ALSO SEE
SOME FOG SEEP IN ACROSS THE NORTHLAND AND LINGER THROUGH MID
MORNING. SATURDAY, THE VERTICALLY STACKED LOW BEGINS TO SLIDE EAST
TOWARDS LAKE MICHIGAN AND SHOULD SHIFT THE BETTER PRECIPITATION
CHANCES OVER NW WI, HOWEVER, CAN'T FULLY RULE OUT SOME SPRINKLES ON
THE MN SIDE.
SUNDAY, SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS BACK IN WITH UPPER LEVEL
RIDGING OVER HEAD. LOOK FOR CLEARING SKIES, DRIER CONDITIONS, AND
HIGHS IN THE UPPER 70S. PRECIPITATION CHANCES DO RETURN LATE MONDAY
AS A SHORTWAVE SLIDES IN FROM THE NORTHWEST BUT THE 12Z SUITE OF
GLOBAL MODEL GUIDANCE HASN'T QUITE HONED IN ON THE TIMING. WITH
RIDGING BUILDING BACK OVER THE DESERT SOUTHWEST THE NORTHLAND WILL
ONCE AGAIN BE UNDER NORTHWESTERLY FLOW. PERIODIC SHORTWAVES MOVING
THROUGH THE PATTERN WILL GIVE WAY TO PRECIPITATION CHANCES THROUGH
THE WEEK.
AVIATION
(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SATURDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 628 PM CDT FRI AUG 19 2022
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS AS OF ISSUANCE TIME ARE EXPECTED TO
GRADUALLY DIMINISH OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS AS WE LOSE DAYTIME
HEATING, AND HAVE ONLY INCLUDED AN HOUR OR TWO OF VCTS/VCSH GROUPS
IN THE TERMINALS THIS EVENING. OVERNIGHT SHOWERS SHOULD STAY AWAY
FROM THE TERMINALS, BUT IF TRENDS SHOW DIFFERENTLY, WILL HAVE TO
AMEND. FOG IS CURRENTLY OVER LAKE SUPERIOR BUT IS EXPECTED TO
SPREAD INLAND THIS EVENING, AND HAVE FOG SPREADING INTO NEARLY ALL
THE TERMINALS OVERNIGHT WITH VISIBILITIES AND CEILINGS LOWERING TO
IFR/LIFR FOR SEVERAL OF THE TERMINALS. SITES CLOSEST TO LAKE
SUPERIOR WILL BE LOWEST THE LONGEST, THOUGH ALL SITES SHOULD
IMPROVE TO AT LEAST MVFR IF NOT VFR AROUND 15Z. DAYTIME SHOWERS
AND STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO REDEVELOP ONCE AGAIN IN THE 16-18Z TIME
RANGE, BUT FOR NOW ANTICIPATE THEM STAYING AWAY FROM THE
TERMINALS, THOUGH KHYR IS MOST AT RISK, AND WE WILL HAVE TO WATCH
TRENDS.
MARINE
ISSUED AT 240 PM CDT FRI AUG 19 2022
NORTHEAST WINDS CONTINUE TO STREAM ACROSS THE WESTERN LAKE SUPERIOR
WITH SPEEDS OF 10 TO 15 KNOTS NEAR THE HEAD OF THE LAKE. WAVE
HEIGHTS REMAIN 2 FT OR LESS. A FEW SHOWERS AND STORMS HAVE BEGUN TO
POPULATE THIS AFTERNOON AND MAY MOVE OVER THE LAKE THIS EVENING.
PRECIPITATION CHANCES TAPER OFF OVERNIGHT WITH DENSE FOG LIKELY
DEVELOPING. FOG IS EXPECTED TO ERODE BY LATE TOMORROW MORNING.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
DLH 57 70 55 78 / 20 10 0 0
INL 55 76 48 79 / 20 10 0 0
BRD 58 75 55 79 / 20 10 0 0
HYR 55 71 51 78 / 30 20 0 0
ASX 56 70 51 79 / 20 20 0 0
DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
WI...NONE.
MN...NONE.
LS...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 11 AM CDT SATURDAY FOR LSZ121-140>148-
150.
DISCUSSION...BRITT
AVIATION...LE
MARINE...BRITT
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