853
FXUS63 KDLH 291120
AFDDLH
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DULUTH MN
620 AM CDT SUN MAR 29 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES EXPECTED AWAY FROM LAKE SUPERIOR TODAY
AND TOMORROW BEFORE A COOLER AIRMASS SETTLES IN THROUGH THE REST OF
THE WEEK.
- LIGHT MIXED PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED FOR PORTIONS OF THE AREA
MONDAY AFTERNOON INTO TUESDAY. RAIN, FREEZING RAIN, AND SNOW ARE
POSSIBLE.
- NEXT BEST CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION ARRIVES LATE THIS WEEK INTO
THE WEEKEND. AGAIN, AREAS OF MIXED PRECIPITATION ARE POSSIBLE.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 153 AM CDT SUN MAR 29 2026
HIGH PRESSURE TO OUR NORTH AND A WEAK LOW OVER THE FRONT RANGE OF
THE ROCKIES WILL LEAD TO LOTS OF WARM AIR ADVECTION INTO THE REGION
TODAY PAIRED WITH MOSTLY CALM CONDITIONS. EXPECT HIGH TEMPERATURES
IN THE 50S AND 60S THIS AFTERNOON OUTSIDE OF THE MN ARROWHEAD AND
IMMEDIATE LAKE SUPERIOR COASTLINE. THOSE OTHER AREAS ARE EXPECTED TO
HAVE MORE INFLUENCE FROM LAKE SUPERIOR WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES ONLY
REACHING INTO THE HIGH 30S AND LOW 40S. WHILE THOSE PLACES WITH VERY
WARM AFTERNOON HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL LIKELY SEE MINIMUM RELATIVE
HUMIDITY OF 25-30%, WINDS SHOULD BE FAIRLY LIGHT, LESSENING THE FIRE
WEATHER RISK.
INTO MONDAY, SOME MOISTURE SHOULD BEGIN TO RETURN TO THE AREA AS
THAT BROAD LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVES OUT OF THE ROCKIES AND A
SECONDARY SHORTWAVE JOINS THE PARTY ALONG THE INTERNATIONAL BORDER.
AHEAD OF PRECIPITATION, THIS MIGHT BE ABLE TO GENERATE SOME FOG,
ESPECIALLY NEAR LAKE SUPERIOR AND WHERE A SNOWPACK REMAINS.
AS THOSE TWO AFOREMENTIONED SYSTEMS PUSH INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS,
THE DOUBLE-BARRELED SETUP SHOULD LEND ITSELF TO SOME BROAD, FAIRLY
LIGHT MIXED PRECIPITATION. THE FIRST AREAS OF MOSTLY RAIN SHOULD
ARRIVE MONDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING IN THE WARM SECTOR. DEPENDING ON
EXACT TEMPERATURES, SOME SNOW COULD BE POSSIBLE FOR THE BORDERLANDS
AND MN ARROWHEAD AT THIS POINT. THERE IS NON-ZERO MUCAPE (50-600
J/KG DEPENDING ON WHICH MODEL YOU ASK) IN THIS WARM SECTOR ALONGSIDE
50-60 KTS+ OF BULK SHEAR AND A LLJ OF 20-35 KNOTS. THIS MIGHT BE
ABLE TO LEND ITSELF TO SOME ELEVATED STORMS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING
HAIL, MOST LIKELY FOR THE I-35 CORRIDOR AND EAST INTO NW WI MONDAY
EVENING.
AS THE SYSTEM PUSHES EAST, WE SHOULD FIND OURSELVES IN THE BACKSIDE
OF THE BROADER LOW TO OUR SOUTH BUT ALONG THE WARM FRONT OF THE
SHORTWAVE TO OUR NORTHWEST. THIS COULD LEND ITSELF TO ARES OF MIXED
PRECIPITATION TURNING INTO MOSTLY SNOW AS WE GO THROUGH TUESDAY
MORNING, EXCEPT FOR FAR SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE CWA WHERE
PRECIPITATION TYPE SHOULD REMAIN MOSTLY RAIN. LIGHT SNOW
ACCUMULATIONS UP TO 1-1.5" ARE POSSIBLE NORTH OF HIGHWAY 2 IN MN,
HIGHEST VALUES ALONG THE INTERNATIONAL BORDER AND THE FAR EASTERN MN
ARROWHEAD. A GLAZE OF ICE IS ALSO POSSIBLE FOR THE IRON RANGE AND MN
ARROWHEAD WHERE PATCHES OF FREEZING RAIN MIX IN. THIS PRECIPITATION
SHOULD COME TO AN END THROUGH TUESDAY AFTERNOON.
HIGH PRESSURE TO OUR NORTH SHOULD KEEP MOST OF THE EXCITING WEATHER
FAIRLY AT BAY WEDNESDAY - THURSDAY. THERE IS A WEAK LOW PRESSURE
THAT PASSES OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS AND INTO THE OHIO RIVER VALLEY
THURSDAY. SHOULD THE HIGH PRESSURE TO OUR NORTH NOT BE AS ROBUST OR
AS FAR SOUTH AS CURRENTLY PROJECTED, SOME OF THAT PRECIPITATION
COULD SNEAK INTO NW WI. THAT HIGH SHOULD KEEP THE AREA SLIGHTLY
COOLER FOR THE SECOND HALF OF THE WEEK WITH HIGHS PRIMARILY IN THE
30S TO LOW 40S AND OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE TEENS AND 20S. WE MAY
MODERATE SLIGHTLY FOR THE WEEKEND.
GLOBAL MODELS THEN POINT TO A MORE ROBUST UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OR EVEN
CUT OFF LOW SWINGING INTO THE AREA THIS WEEKEND. THIS COULD PULL
SOME PACIFIC AND GULF MOISTURE INTO THE AREA AND BRING A QUICK HIT
OF MODERATE TO HEAVY PRECIPITATION. EXACT TRACK, WHICH IS STILL UP
IN THE AIR, WILL DETERMINE WHETHER THAT IS SNOW, RAIN, OR A MIX FOR
THE NORTHLAND.
AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z MONDAY/
ISSUED AT 620 AM CDT SUN MAR 29 2026
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD, WITH WINDS
TURNING FROM EASTERLY TO SOUTHERLY THROUGH THE DAY TODAY, BUT FAIRLY
LIGHT. THE ONE POINT OF UNCERTAINTY IN THE AVIATION FORECAST IS FOR
DLH. SOME LOW CLOUDS HAVE BEEN STREAMING OFF OF LAKE SUPERIOR EARLY
THIS MORNING, WITH 600-800FT CEILINGS AT DYT AND SUW. FOR THE 12Z
SET OF TAFS, HAVE LEFT THE FORECAST PREDOMINANTLY VFR, BUT THERE IS
A SMALL CHANCE THAT THESE LOW CEILINGS COULD SHIFT AND AFFECT THE
DLH TERMINAL.
MARINE /FOR NEARSHORE WATERS OF WESTERN LAKE SUPERIOR/
ISSUED AT 153 AM CDT SUN MAR 29 2026
A NORTHEAST BREEZE IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP TODAY BOOSTED SLIGHTLY BY
A LAKE BREEZE CIRCULATION. SOME GUSTS OF 15-20 KNOTS ARE POSSIBLE
THIS AFTERNOON. THOSE WINDS SHOULD CALM OVERNIGHT BUT PICK BACK UP
INTO MONDAY WITH GUSTS OF 20-30 KNOTS INTO EARLY TUESDAY MORNING. A
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED. AREAS OF FOG AND MIXED
PRECIPITATION ARE POSSIBLE MONDAY AND TUESDAY. NORTHEAST WINDS
SHOULD SLOWLY DECREASE THROUGH TUESDAY AND TURN TO BECOME
NORTHWESTERLY BRIEFLY INTO WEDNESDAY BEFORE RETURNING TO EASTERLY
WEDNESDAY PM.
FOR THE OPEN WATER DISCUSSION, REFER TO THE NWS MARQUETTE AREA
FORECAST DISCUSSION AT WEATHER.GOV/MQT.
DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MN...NONE.
WI...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
DISCUSSION...LEVENS
AVIATION...LEVENS
MARINE...LEVENS
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