741
FXUS63 KDLH 210758
AFDDLH
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DULUTH MN
258 AM CDT THU OCT 21 2021
DISCUSSION
(TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 258 AM CDT THU OCT 21 2021
MORNING RAIN ENDING ACROSS NORTHWEST WISCONSIN WITH CLEARING SKIES
TODAY, COOLER TEMPERATURES TODAY THROUGH THE WEEKEND WITH A
GRADUAL MODERATION NEXT WEEK HIGHLIGHT THE FORECAST.
DEFORMATION ZONE RAINFALL WILL CONTINUE ACROSS NORTHWEST
WISCONSIN THIS MORNING TO THE NORTH OF LOW PRESSURE ACROSS
SOUTHERN WISCONSIN. THIS PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED TO EXIT IRON
AND PRICE COUNTIES BY 13-14Z. LOW TO MID LEVEL CLOUD COVER WILL
ALSO CLEAR WITHIN A SIMILAR TIMEFRAME WITH MOSTLY SUNNY
CONDITIONS THE REMAINDER OF THE DAY ACROSS THE NORTHLAND AS WEAK
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS ACROSS THE AREA INTO TONIGHT. GIVEN A
COOL START TO THE EVENING WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE 40S
TODAY, RADIATIONAL COOLING SHOULD ALLOW FOR A QUICK DROP IN
TEMPERATURES AFTER SUNSET WITH LIGHT WINDS. THUS, AM EXPECTING
WIDESPREAD LOWS IN THE 20S FRIDAY MORNING AWAY FROM LAKE SUPERIOR.
THERE ARE SOME HINTS OF A FEW CLOUD DECKS ON THE FRINGES OF
CYCLONIC FLOW ALOFT THAT MAY BE OVER THE REGION TONIGHT, SO KEPT
THE LOW TEMPERATURE FORECAST FROM THE VERY BOTTOM OF THE
DISTRIBUTION. THAT SAID, A FEW LOWS IN THE TEENS ARE NOT OUT OF
THE QUESTION ACROSS THE IRON RANGE IF THEY REMAIN AWAY FROM ANY
CLOUD COVER.
COOL TEMPERATURES WITH HIGHS IN THE 40S AND SUB-FREEZING LOWS
CONTINUE INTO THE WEEKEND UNDER CYCLONIC FLOW ALOFT AS THE UPPER
LEVEL LOW OVER HUDSON BAY SLOWLY PROPAGATES SOUTH TOWARDS THE
GREAT LAKES. SOME SOUTH SHORE LAKE EFFECT SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE
FRIDAY AFTERNOON INTO SATURDAY MORNING AS LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
INCREASES VIA NORTHWEST WINDS WITH THE APPROACH OF THE LOW AND
FAVORABLE LAKE SURFACE AND AIR TEMPERATURE DIFFERENTIALS. FLOW
ACROSS THE LAKE WILL BE MODEST, THUS, EXPECTING THE OVERALL
PRECIPITATION ACTIVITY TO BE LIGHT. ANY LAKE EFFECT ACTIVITY IS
EXPECTED TO BE RAIN FRIDAY AFTERNOON, WITH A CHANGEOVER TO SNOW
FRIDAY NIGHT. MINIMAL ACCUMULATIONS AT BEST ARE EXPECTED.
LOOKING TOWARDS NEXT WEEK, THE 00 UTC GLOBAL SUITE FAVORS UPPER
LEVEL RIDGING BUILDING ACROSS THE REGION MONDAY AND TUESDAY, WITH
A RELATIVE MODERATION OF HIGH TEMPERATURES INTO THE 50S.
AVIATION
(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 258 AM CDT THU OCT 21 2021
THE RAIN WILL DIMINISH THROUGH THE EARLY MORNING HOURS AT
DLH/BRD/HYR, WITH MVFR CEILINGS IMPROVING TO VFR, AS THE SURFACE
LOW CAUSING THE RAIN DEPARTS. INL AND HIB WILL BE VFR THROUGH THE
FORECAST. THERE WILL BE A PERIOD OF GUSTY WINDS THROUGH LATE
THIS MORNING FOR DLH/HYR/BRD WITH NORTHEAST TURNING NORTHERLY
WINDS WITH GUSTS TO 20KTS.
MARINE
ISSUED AT 258 AM CDT THU OCT 21 2021
A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR TWO HARBORS THROUGH
THE TWIN PORTS AND PORT WING THROUGH 7 AM CDT TODAY. THIS MAY
NEED TO BE EXTENDED FURTHER INTO THE MORNING FOR POTENTIAL
CONTINUED SWELL IN EXCESS OF 4 FT EVEN AS WINDS DECREASE. WILL
MONITOR WAVE TRENDS THROUGH THE EARLY MORNING. THE SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY FROM PORT WING TO BAYFIELD HAS BEEN EXTENDED TO 10 AM CDT
TODAY FOR NORTHEAST TURNING NORTHERLY WINDS OF 10 TO 15 KTS WITH
GUSTS TO 25 KTS AND WAVES OF 3 TO 6 FEET, HIGHEST FROM PORT WING
TO SAND ISLAND. FOR THE OUTER APOSTLE ISLANDS AND OAK POINT TO
SAXON HARBOR, THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 1
PM CDT FOR NORTHEAST TURNING NORTHERLY WINDS OF 15 TO 20 KTS WITH
GUSTS TO 30 KTS AND WAVES OF 4 TO 6 FEET, OCCASIONALLY TO 8 FEET.
THE SOUTH SHORE ADVISORIES MAY ALSO NEED TO BE EXTENDED FURTHER IN
TIME FOR REMAINING SWELL. THIS WILL BE MONITORED THROUGH THE DAY.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
DLH 47 29 45 30 / 0 0 0 0
INL 45 26 44 28 / 0 0 10 0
BRD 47 25 48 28 / 0 0 0 0
HYR 48 24 48 26 / 0 0 0 0
ASX 49 29 48 31 / 0 0 30 30
DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
WI...NONE.
MN...NONE.
LS...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM CDT THIS MORNING FOR LSZ121-146-
147.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM CDT THIS MORNING FOR LSZ143>145.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 1 PM CDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR LSZ148-
150.
DISCUSSION...PA
AVIATION...PA
MARINE...PA
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.
Main Text Page