062
FXUS63 KDLH 121837 CCA
AFDDLH
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...CORRECTED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DULUTH MN
137 PM CDT THU MAR 12 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- STRONG CLIPPER SYSTEM IS SET TO MOVE IN FROM THE WEST THIS
AFTERNOON BRINGING HEAVY SNOW AND STRONG WINDS. DANGEROUS
TRAVEL CONDITIONS THURSDAY LATE AFTERNOON THROUGH MIDNIGHT
ACROSS MOST OF THE REGION.
- ANOTHER STORM SYSTEM FOR THE WEEKEND MAY BRING SOME ACCUMULATING
SNOW TO PORTIONS OF NW WI.
- COLDER TEMPERATURES RETURN MONDAY WITH HIGHS STRUGGLING TO GET
OUT OF THE TEENS. LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS WIL BE POSSIBLE
FOR THE SOUTH SHORE.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 348 AM CDT THU MAR 12 2026
CURRENT CONDITIONS:
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE IS CURRENTLY OVER THE REGION THIS MORNING BUT
WILL BE DEPARTING THROUGH THE DAY. OUR ONCE CLEAR SKIES WILL SLOWLY
SEE CLOUDS INCREASE AS A POTENT SYSTEM ADVANCES OUT OF THE WEST. OUT
AHEAD OF THIS SYSTEM WE WILL SEE SOUTHERLY WINDS STEADILY INCREASING
WITH TIME AND HIGHS WILL TOP OUT IN THE 30S.
WINTER STORM THURSDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING:
SYNOPTIC SET UP:
SURFACE LOW PRESSURE IS TAKING FORM OVER THE ROCKIES IN SOUTHERN
ALBERTA THIS MORNING. AMPLE MOISTURE IS BEING SIPHONED FROM AN
ATMOSPHERIC RIVER IN THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST WITH ADVECTED
PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES CLOCKING IN NEAR THE 99TH PERCENTILE OF
CLIMATOLOGY. THE LOW PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO TAKE A TRADITIONAL
CLIPPER PATH THROUGH THE NORTHLAND AT A FAIRLY QUICK PACE. HOWEVER,
THIS LOW WILL BE RIDING ON THE NOSE OF A STRONG UPPER LEVEL JET
WITHIN THE LEFT EXIT REGION GETTING A GREAT BOOST IN DIVERGENCE
ALOFT ALLOWING FOR THE LOW TO QUICKLY STRENGTHEN. BOTH THE GEFS AND
THE NAEFS HAS THIS LOWS STRENGTH FALLING IN THE MINIMUM OF ALL
INITIALIZED REFORECASTS. TO BETTER CONTEXTUALIZE THE STRENGTH OF
THIS LOW THE RETURN INTERVAL IS ONE IN EVERY TEN YEARS. AS THIS LOW
MOVES ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS IT WILL HELP DRAG A BUBBLE OF
WARMER AIR ALONG ITS SOUTHERN EDGE THAT WILL NOSE INTO OUR SOUTHERN
PORTIONS OF THE CWA. AS PREVIOUSLY MENTIONED, THIS SYSTEM WILL BE
FAST MOVING. HIGH IMPACTS IN A VERY SHORT WINDOW BEGINNING THIS
AFTERNOON AND QUICKLY TAPERING OFF OVERNIGHT.
IMPACTS:
SNOW:
THIS ROBUST SYSTEM WILL BE CARRYING PACIFIC NORTHWEST MOISTURE TO
DEPOSIT ACROSS THE NORTHLAND. THE EXACT LOW TRACK STILL CARRIES SOME
VARIANCE THAT WILL LIKELY SET UP QUITE THE SNOWFALL GRADIENT THANKS
TO THE INCLUSION OF SOME WARM AIR ALONG THE SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE
LOW TRACK. QPF PLUMES REFLECT THIS VARIANCE AS WELL WITH CLUSTERS
STILL SHOWING VARIATIONS. HOWEVER, MOST ARE SHOWING VALUES NEAR
0.50" WITH HIGHER TOTALS OVER THE NORTH SHORE. THE STRONGEST FORCING
MOVES IN THE LATE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS AS Q VECTOR DIVERGENCE
IS AT IT'S PEAK AND LIFT IS MAXIMIZED WITHIN THE DGZ. SNOWFALL RATES
OF 1" PER HOUR WILL BE COMMON PLACE WITHIN THE WARNING AREAS. THE
NORTH SHORE IN PARTICULAR COULD SEE 2" PER HOUR RATES. OUR WARNING
AREAS SNOW CHARACTERISTIC WILL BE MORE TYPICAL AROUND 10:1 TO 15:1.
HOWEVER, OUR AREAS IN THE ADVISORIES WILL SEE SOME RAIN MIXING IN AT
TIMES WHICH WILL LOWER SLR TO LESS THEN 10:1 LEADING TO WET
HEAVY SNOW. OVERALL SPEED OF THE SYSTEM REMAINS IMPRESSIVE WITH
MOST OF THE CAMS HAVING ACTIVITY QUICKLY RAMPING DOWN AFTER
MIDNIGHT. HIGH IMPACTS FOR A SHORT WINDOW.
WINTER WEATHER HEADLINE UPDATES:
WE OPTED TO LET THE WINTER WEATHER WATCH GO FOR SOUTHERN CASS INTO
BURNETT AS WE ARE EXPECTING A LITTLE MORE RAIN TO MIX IN LIMITING
SNOW TOTALS. NEW WINTER WEATHER ADVISORIES WERE ADDED FOR NORTHERN
CASS INTO NORTHERN AITKIN AND SOUTHERN ITASCA AS WELL AS WASHBURN AND
SAWYER. PRICE WAS ALSO ADDED TO THE WINTER STORM WARNING. THE REST
OF THE WARNINGS TO INCLUDE THE BLIZZARD WARNINGS REMAIN ON TRACK.
WIND:
WITH SUCH AN ANOMALOUSLY STRONG LOW PRESSURE SET TO CRUISE THROUGH
THE NORTHLAND YOU CAN BET THERE WILL BE SOME IMPRESSIVE WIND TO
ACCOMPANY IT. WINDS WILL INITIALLY BE OUT OF THE SOUTH AND SOUTHEAST.
THESE WINDS WILL INITIALLY BE ON THE BREEZY SIDE WITH GUSTS
AROUND 30 MPH. BUT THE REAL WIND BEGINS IN THE OVERNIGHT HOURS
AS THE LOW CROSSES INTO THE TWIN PORTS. EASTERLY WINDS WILL BE
ENHANCED ALONG THE NORTH SHORE AND NORTHWESTERLY WINDS WILL
BEGIN TO FILL IN BEHIND THE LOW FOR THE BRAINERD LAKES REGION.
SOUNDING PROFILES SHOW 70 MPH AT JUST 3000 FT WITH FAVORABLE
LAPSE RATES FOR MIXING OVERNIGHT. AS MENTIONED PREVIOUSLY THE
LOW TRACK STILL HAS A LITTLE VARIANCE ON IT SO A MORE SOUTHERLY
TRACK WOULD KEEP THESE WINDS FARTHER SOUTH. BUT THE LATEST
TRENDS IN EFI CONTINUE TO TREND UP SO WE HAVE OPTED TO UPGRADE
THE HIGH WIND WATCH TO A HIGH WIND WARNING FOR SOUTHERN CASS AND
CROW WING. AREAS EAST HAVE ALSO BEEN ADDED TO A WIND ADVISORY
AS THE TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT MOVES ACROSS THE REGION.
FRIDAY:
THE SURFACE LOW PRESSURE WILL HAVE MOVED INTO LAKE MICHIGAN BUT THE
TRAILING MOISTURE FIELD INTO THE REGION WILL STILL ALLOW FOR SNOW
CHANCES THROUGH THE DAY. SYNOPTIC FORCING WILL BE MUCH MORE LIMITED
WITH SNOWFALL RATES LARGELY LESS THEN 0.5" PER HOUR. WINDS WILL ALSO
BE DECREASING THROUGH THE DAY AS THE PRESSURE GRADIENT WEAKENS.
NORTHWEST FLOW MIXED WITH THE REMNANT MOISTURE MAY LEAD TO A GRAVITY
WAVE SET UP FOR THE SOUTH SHORE AND PROMOTE SOME LOCALLY HIGHER
SNOWFALL RATES UNTIL DRIER AIR ARRIVES IN THE EVENING.
WEEKEND:
A LOW OUT OF THE CENTRAL ROCKIES IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP AND TRACK
THROUGH THE MIDWEST. ENSEMBLE LOW TRACKS ARE IN HIGH AGREEMENT WITH
TAKING THIS LOW EAST INTO NORTHERN IN. THIS TRACK WOULD LEAD TO A
DEFORMATION BAND SETTING UP ACROSS SOUTHERN MN AND INTO CENTRAL WI.
OUR AREA WILL STILL SEE SOME OF THIS SNOW ACTION BUT WE ARE ON THE
NORTHERN PERIPHERY AND NOT EXPECTED TO TAKE THE BRUNT OF THIS STORM
SYSTEM. AS THE LOW TRACKS NORTH THE BAND WILL ALSO FOLLOW SUITE
LEADING TO NW WI HAVING THE BEST CHANCES OF SEEING SOME ACCUMULATING
SNOW. HIGHEST SNOW TOTALS WILL BE ALONG OUR SOUTHERN TIER COUNTIES
WITH A 40-60% CHANCE OF SEEING 2". THE LATEST NBM PATH OF THE SYSTEM
DOES HAVE PRICE MAKING INTO THE BANDED SNOW FOR A PERIOD LEADING TO
BETTER SNOW CHANCES OF 40-60% CHANCE OF 4". TIMING WISE, SNOW CHANCES
ARE BEST LATE SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY.
EARLY NEXT WEEK:
AS THE WEEKEND LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM TRACKS THROUGH TO QUEBEC WE WILL
SEE COLD AIR SEEP BACK INTO THE REGION. 850MB TEMPS OF -24C WILL BE
BACK IN PLACE BY MONDAY MORNING LEADING TO SOME WIND CHILLS OF -20F.
HIGHS ON MONDAY WILL ALSO STRUGGLE TO BREAK INTO THE TWENTIES WITH
WIDESPREAD TEENS EXPECTED. LINGERING MOISTURE COMBINED WITH CYCLONIC
FLOW ALOFT MAY LEAD TO SOME LIGHT SNOW OR FLURRIES AT TIMES.
ADDITIONALLY, WITH THE RETURN OF COLD AIR MOVING OVER LAKE SUPERIOR,
LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS WILL LIKELY IMPACT THE SOUTH SHORE ONCE
AGAIN.
AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY/
ISSUED AT 1232 PM CDT THU MAR 12 2026
VFR CONDITIONS CONTINUE INTO THIS AFTERNOON AHEAD OF A STRONG
CLIPPER SYSTEM THAT WILL BRING MODERATE SNOW OVERNIGHT. DLH
ESPECIALLY WILL SEE THE WORST CONDITIONS THIS EVENING WITH
VISIBILITIES AT A HALF MILE OR LESS FOR A FEW HOURS WITH A
COMBINATION OF STRONG EASTERLY TO SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS AND HIGH
SNOWFALL RATES. WINDS WILL BE STRONG OUT OF THE EAST AND
SOUTHEAST FOR DLH, HIB, HYR, AND INL AND OUT OF THE NORTHWEST
FOR BRD BEFORE CHANGING TO THE NORTHWEST FOR ALL TERMINALS. BRD
WILL SEE THE HIGHEST WIND GUSTS EXCEEDING 40 KTS IN THE EARLY
MORNING ON FRIDAY. CONDITIONS BEGIN TO IMPROVE FRIDAY MORNING,
THOUGH LINGERING VISIBILITY REDUCTIONS FROM LIGHT SNOW AND
BLOWING SNOW WILL CONTINUE INTO EARLY FRIDAY AFTERNOON.
MARINE /FOR NEARSHORE WATERS OF WESTERN LAKE SUPERIOR/
ISSUED AT 348 AM CDT THU MAR 12 2026
ACTIVE WEATHER INBOUND FOR LAKE SUPERIOR. A CLIPPER WILL RUSH
THROUGH THE REGION TONIGHT PROVIDING A BOOST IN WINDS. GALES ARE
EXPECTED ACROSS THE NORTH SHORE AND WITH THE LOW PRESSURE EXPECTED
TO MOVE DIRECTLY OVER THE TWIN PORTS EXPECT QUITE A VARIATION IN
WIND DIRECTION DEPENDING ON YOUR LOCATION. WAVE HEIGHTS WITH THESE
STRONGER WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO BE 9-14 FT ON THE NORTH SHORE WITH
SOME OCCASIONAL WAVE UPWARDS OF 19 FT.
WINDS BRIEFLY TAPER OFF ACROSS THE LAKE FRIDAY NIGHT. BUT ANOTHER
SYSTEM OUT OF THE ROCKIES IS EXPECTED TO MOVE THROUGH THE GREAT
LAKES REGION THIS WEEKEND. GALES OUT OF THE NORTH LOOK POSSIBLE
AGAIN STARTING LATE SUNDAY.
FOR THE OPEN WATER DISCUSSION, REFER TO THE NWS MARQUETTE AREA
FORECAST DISCUSSION AT WEATHER.GOV/MQT.
DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MN...BLIZZARD WARNING UNTIL 1 PM CDT FRIDAY FOR MNZ020-021-037.
WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 1 PM CDT FRIDAY FOR MNZ010>012-018-
019.
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM CDT FRIDAY FOR MNZ025-026-
035.
HIGH WIND WARNING FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 10 AM CDT FRIDAY
FOR MNZ033-034.
WIND ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 10 AM CDT FRIDAY FOR
MNZ036-038.
WI...WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 1 PM CDT FRIDAY FOR WIZ001>004.
WIND ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 10 AM CDT FRIDAY FOR
WIZ006.
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 5 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 1 PM CDT
FRIDAY FOR WIZ007-008.
WINTER STORM WARNING FROM 7 PM THIS EVENING TO 1 PM CDT FRIDAY
FOR WIZ009.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 4 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 7 PM CDT THIS
EVENING FOR LSZ140>142.
GALE WARNING FROM 7 PM THIS EVENING TO 10 AM CDT FRIDAY FOR
LSZ140>142.
BLIZZARD WARNING UNTIL 1 PM CDT FRIDAY FOR LSZ142.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 4 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 10 PM CDT
THIS EVENING FOR LSZ143-144.
GALE WARNING FROM 10 PM THIS EVENING TO 10 AM CDT FRIDAY FOR
LSZ143-144.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 4 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 10 PM CDT
FRIDAY FOR LSZ145>148.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 4 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 1 AM CDT
FRIDAY FOR LSZ150.
GALE WARNING FROM 1 AM TO 10 AM CDT FRIDAY FOR LSZ150.
DISCUSSION...BRITT
AVIATION...KML
MARINE...BRITT
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