452
FXUS63 KDLH 191052
AFDDLH
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DULUTH MN
552 AM CDT SUN APR 19 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- NEAR-CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS TODAY AND MONDAY
- WARMER TEMPERATURES RETURN NEXT WEEK WITH DRY CONDITIONS THROUGH
WEDNESDAY
- ACTIVE WEATHER PATTERN BEGINS THURSDAY WITH STORMS POSSIBLE.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 302 AM CDT SUN APR 19 2026
CURRENT CONDITIONS/TODAY:
A SHORTWAVE IS MOVING ACROSS MN EARLY THIS MORNING LEADING TO A FEW
LIGHT ECHO RETURNS ON RADAR. SURFACE OBSERVATIONS OCCASIONALLY SHOW
SOME LIGHT SNOW IN THE RED RIVER VALLEY AND ON THE OUTSKIRTS OF THE
BRAINERD LAKES REGION. THIS SHORTWAVE EXITS BY MID MORNING WITH
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE GRADUALLY BUILDING IN FROM THE NORTHWEST.
TODAY WILL SPORT SUNNY SKIES AND A FEW GUSTS AROUND 15 MPH OUT OF
THE NORTHWEST. EXPECT HIGHS TO TOP OUT IN THE 40S ACROSS OUR SOUTH
AND 30S IN THE BORDERLANDS.
MONDAY:
A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL BE MOVING ACROSS NORTHERN MANITOBA
TOWARDS THE HUDSON BAY. THIS WILL LEAD TO AN INCREASE OF
SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS ACROSS THE REGION WITH A LOW LEVEL JET CROSSING
THE RED RIVER VALLEY AND INTO THE NORTHLAND IN THE AFTERNOON. BREEZY
CONDITIONS WILL BE ON TAP WITH GUSTS UPWARDS OF 25-30 MPH. THIS MAY
LEAD TO INCREASED FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS AS MODEL SOUNDINGS SHOWCASE
AN ABUNDANCE OF DRY AIR IN THE LOWER LEVELS. THE MAIN LIMITING
FACTOR WITH THIS SET UP LOOKS TO BE CLOUD COVER WHICH REMAINS A BIT
CONTESTED AMONGST THE 00Z SUITE OF GUIDANCE. FOR NOW, WE HAVE
LOWERED MIN RHS ACROSS OUR WEST TO UNDER 25%. THIS IN COMBINATION
WITH OUR INCREASED WINDS MAY WARRANT FIRE WEATHER HEADLINES.
TUESDAY/WEDNESDAY:
QUIET CONDITIONS FOR BOTH TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY AS SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE MOVES ACROSS THE REGION. HIGH TEMPS START IN THE 60S
ON TUESDAY AND CLIMB INTO THE 70S FOR WEDNESDAY. CLASSIC COOLER
BY THE LAKE SET UP THOUGH WITH AREAS NEAR THE LAKE REMAINING IN
THE 50S.
THURSDAY/FRIDAY:
ACTIVE WEATHER BESETS THE REGION ONCE AGAIN AS EARLY AS LATE
WEDNESDAY AS AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH MAKES ITS WAY ACROSS THE
ROCKIES. ENSEMBLE LOW CLUSTERS ARE COMING INTO GOOD ALIGNMENT
WITH BRINGING THE SYSTEM ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS THURSDAY
INTO FRIDAY. WITH THE LOW BEING THIS FAR NORTH IT WILL HELP DRAW
IN MORE MOISTURE FROM THE SOUTH. DEWPOINTS COULD CLIMB TO NEAR
60F INCREASING THE INSTABILITY ACROSS THE REGION. AN UPPER LEVEL
JET WILL ALSO BE ROUNDING THE BASE OF THE TROUGH AND EJECTING
INTO THE REGION THURSDAY BUMPING UP THE BULK SHEAR NEEDED TO
HELP SUSTAIN CONVECTION. STILL A LOT OF FINE DETAILS TO WORK OUT
AS THE EVENT APPROACHES BUT THE AI MODELS AND THE MACHINE
LEARNING ENSEMBLES ARE SHOWING DECENT AGREEMENT FOR STRONG TO
SEVERE STORMS ON THURSDAY.
FRIDAY IS WHEN WE START TO SEE A NOTICEABLE SPLIT IN MODELS. THE EPS
FAMILY IS LEANING TOWARDS HAVE THE VERTICALLY STACKED LOW RETROGRADE
ACROSS ONTARIO WHICH WOULD LEAVE THE REGION SEEING PERSISTENT
PRECIPITATION CHANCES. BUT THE GEFS FAMILY TAKES ON THE MORE
PROGRESSIVE TRACK HAVING THE SYSTEM TRACK EAST ACROSS THE GREAT
LAKES REGION. FOR NOW THE NBM IS MAINTAINING 20-30% POPS IN THE
EXTENDED FORECAST.
AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY/
ISSUED AT 551 AM CDT SUN APR 19 2026
VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD. CYCLONIC FLOW ALOFT HAS
SOME SCATTERED MVFR CEILINGS ACROSS SOUTHERN ONTARIO THAT MAY
BRIEFLY IMPACT INL THIS MORNING. SKIES CLEAR ACROSS THE REGION BY
MID DAY WITH A FEW GUSTS AROUND 15-18 KTS THOUGH THE AFTERNOON.
WINDS TAPER OFF AFTER SUNSET AS WE MAINTAIN OUR CLEAR SKIES WITH
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE MOVING IN TONIGHT.
MARINE /FOR NEARSHORE WATERS OF WESTERN LAKE SUPERIOR/
ISSUED AT 302 AM CDT SUN APR 19 2026
NORTHWEST WINDS ARE STREAMING ACROSS THE LAKE WITH THE GUSTY
WINDS BEING FROM GRAND MARAIAS TO GRAND PORTAGE. A SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 10AM. SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS
INCREASE MONDAY AFTERNOON AND MAY LEAD TO SOME BUILDING WAVES ON
THE NORTH SHORE THAT WARRANT A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY AGAIN.
FOR THE OPEN WATER DISCUSSION, REFER TO THE NWS MARQUETTE AREA
FORECAST DISCUSSION AT WEATHER.GOV/MQT.
FIRE WEATHER
ISSUED AT 302 AM CDT SUN APR 19 2026
LOW MIN RHS FOR TODAY AND TOMORROW WILL LEAD TO SOME ELEVATED FIRE
WEATHER CONCERNS. TODAY WILL SEE MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES WITH RHS
LARGELY EXPECTED TO DROP BELOW 25% ACROSS THE REGION. NORTHWEST
WINDS WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE DAY WITH SOME GUSTS AROUND 15
MPH. MONDAY'S FORECAST IS A BIT TRICKER AS A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
WILL BE MOVING ACROSS NORTHERN MANITOBA. A LOW LEVEL JET WILL
CROSS THE REGION PROVIDING US WITH INCREASED WIND SPEEDS. WIND
GUSTS OUT OF THE SOUTH MAY BE ON THE ORDER OF 25-30 MPH. CLOUD
COVER REMAINS THE WRENCH IN THE FORECAST AS SOME MODELS ARE
SUGGESTING DECENT COVERAGE THROUGH THE DAY THAT WOULD PREVENT
RAPID DRYING. THE MOST LIKELY AREAS TO CLEAR WOULD BE ACROSS OUR
WEST WHERE WE HAVE DROPPED MIN RHS TO BELOW 25%. IF WE DO GET A
FAIR AMOUNT OF SUNSHINE WE COULD SEE THESE FALL TO BELOW 20%.
FIRE WEATHER HEADLINES MAY BE NEEDED.
SEE THE FIRE WEATHER FORECAST PRODUCT FOR A MORE THOROUGH
BREAKDOWN OF FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS.
DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MN...NONE.
WI...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM CDT THIS MORNING FOR LSZ140.
DISCUSSION...BRITT
AVIATION...BRITT
MARINE...BRITT
FIRE WEATHER...BRITT
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