936
FXUS63 KDLH 262338
AFDDLH
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DULUTH MN
638 PM CDT MON OCT 26 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- A COUPLE ROUNDS OF RAIN EXPECTED THIS WORKWEEK, THE FIRST
ROUND TODAY INTO TUESDAY AND ANOTHER ROUND WEDNESDAY INTO
WEDNESDAY NIGHT. A FEW RUMBLES OF THUNDER ARE ALSO POSSIBLE
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
- THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME VERY LIGHT SNOW TO MIX IN
TONIGHT INTO TUESDAY MORNING FROM NORTH-CENTRAL MN INTO FAR
NORTHERN ARROWHEAD. ACCUMULATIONS ARE EXPECTED TO BE AROUND
0.1" TO NONE ON GRASSY SURFACES.
- NEAR-NORMAL TEMPERATURES THROUGH TUESDAY BEFORE WARMING BACK
ABOVE NORMAL INTO THE 50S AND 60S FOR MOST LOCATIONS FOR THE
REMAINDER OF THIS WEEK AND UPCOMING WEEKEND.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 144 PM CDT MON OCT 26 2026
REST OF TODAY:
EARLY THIS AFTERNOON, SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE IS CENTERED IN
SOUTHERN MANITOBA AND NORTHWESTERN ONTARIO TO OUR NORTH AND LOW
PRESSURE IN THE CENTRAL PLAINS WITH A STATIONARY FRONT EXTENDING
EAST INTO THE LOWER GREAT LAKES. NORTH OF THIS STATIONARY FRONT,
ISENTROPIC ASCENT INTO FAR SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE NORTHLAND IS
LEADING TO INCREASING CLOUD COVER FROM THE SOUTH ALONG WITH SOME
SPOTTY, VERY LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS FROM EAST-CENTRAL MINNESOTA
INTO INLAND NORTHWEST WISCONSIN. DRIER AIR PRESENT FARTHER NORTH
CLOSER TO THE SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL KEEP MUCH OF THE
NORTHLAND DRY THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE AFTERNOON. EXPECT
HIGH TEMPERATURES TO BE MORE FALL-LIKE IN THE 40S TO AROUND 50
DEGREES THIS AFTERNOON ALONGSIDE EASTERLY WINDS.
THIS EVENING - TUESDAY:
FOR THIS EVENING AND TONIGHT, EXPECT THE AFOREMENTIONED LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM TO CONTINUE SLIDING NORTHEASTWARD TOWARDS THE
UPPER MIDWEST IN CONJUNCTION WITH A NEGATIVELY-TILTED MID-LEVEL
TROUGH. AS MOISTURE ADVECTS NORTHWARD WITH THIS SYSTEM, LIGHT
TO MODERATE RAINFALL WILL GRADUALLY EXPAND NORTHWARD ACROSS THE
NORTHLAND, REACHING NEAR THE INTERNATIONAL BORDER BY AROUND
SUNRISE TUESDAY. WITH SURFACE TEMPERATURES DROPPING TO THE UPPER
20S TO AROUND FREEZING IN NORTH-CENTRAL MINNESOTA, THE IRON
RANGE, AND INLAND PORTIONS OF THE ARROWHEAD TONIGHT INTO EARLY
TUESDAY MORNING, SOME OF THIS RAINFALL COULD SEE A MIX OF
POCKETS OF VERY LIGHT SNOW OR BRIEFLY OVER TO ALL SNOW. HOWEVER,
WITH TEMPERATURES QUICKLY WARMING ABOVE FREEZING AROUND AND
AFTER SUNRISE, THE TIMEFRAME OF SNOWFALL FOR ANY SPECIFIC
LOCATION WOULD BE ON THE ORDER OF 1-2 HOURS. COMBINING THAT
WITH LOW SNOW-TO-LIQUID RATIOS OF 3 TO 1 OR LESS AND WARM GROUND
TEMPERATURES IN THE 40S, ONLY AROUND 0.1" TO NO SNOW
ACCUMULATION IS EXPECTED, AND WOULD MAINLY BE ON GRASSY
SURFACES.
LIGHT TO MODERATE RAINFALL CONTINUES ON TUESDAY, GRADUALLY
ENDING FROM SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING
AS THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM SLIDES THROUGH AND THEN EXITS
NORTHEAST OF THE NORTHLAND. FORECAST RAINFALL TOTALS FOR THE
REST OF TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY EVENING RANGE FROM 0.05 TO 1",
BEING LOWEST IN FAR NORTH-CENTRAL MINNESOTA, AND HIGHEST (I.E.,
0.50" TO LOCALLY 1") FROM THE BRAINERD LAKES EAST INTO THE ST.
CROIX RIVER VALLEY. WE ALSO CAN'T RULE OUT A 10-20% FOR A FEW
STRAY RAIN SHOWERS/SPRINKLES IN NORTHWEST WISCONSIN TUESDAY
NIGHT, BUT ADDITIONAL ACCUMULATION AMOUNTS WILL BE NEGLIGIBLE AT
BEST.
TEMPERATURES QUICKLY CLIMB ON TUESDAY INTO THE MID 40S TO AROUND
50 DEGREES FOR HIGH TEMPERATURES IN MOST OF NORTHEAST MINNESOTA
AND MID TO UPPER 50S IN EAST-CENTRAL MINNESOTA AND NORTHWEST
WISCONISN.
WEDNESDAY - WEDNESDAY NIGHT:
ON WEDNESDAY, MID-LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGHING ENERGY MOVING ACROSS
THE DAKOTAS IN CONJUNCTION WITH ANOTHER, WEAKER LOW-PRESSURE
SYSTEM MOVING NORTHEAST ACROSS SOUTH DAKOTA THROUGH
MINNESOTA/NORTHWEST WISCONSIN WILL BRING ADDITIONAL RAIN TO THE
NORTHLAND (60-95% CHANCE), WITH THE HIGHEST ACCUMULATION
POTENTIAL IN THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS. SOME STEEPER MID-
LEVEL LAPSE RATES WILL PROVIDE JUST ENOUGH POTENTIAL FOR MUCAPE
VALUES UP TO AROUND 200 J/KG WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING,
WHICH COULD LEAD TO A FEW EMBEDDED RUMBLES OF THUNDER WITH THE
RAIN. RAIN THEN COMES TO AN END LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT/EARLY
THURSDAY MORNING. THE QUICKER, MORE PROGRESSIVE NATURE OF THE
WEDNESDAY RAIN SHOULD CAP RAINFALL AMOUNTS A BIT, WITH FORECAST
ACCUMULATIONS GENERALLY ON THE ORDER OF 0.2-0.5" FOR MOST OF THE
NORTHLAND, LOWEST IN NORTH-CENTRAL WISCONSIN.
SEASONALLY WARM TEMPERATURES ARE IN STORE FOR WEDNESDAY, WITH
HIGHS IN THE MID 50S TO LOW 60S IN NORTHEAST MINNESOTA AND MID
TO UPPER 60S IN EAST-CENTRAL MINNESOTA TO NORTHWEST WISCONSIN.
LATE THIS WEEK - WEEKEND:
PRECIPITATION CHANCES IN THE FORECAST FOR THURSDAY AND FRIDAY
HAVE TRENDED DRY AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE SLIDES THROUGH THE
UPPER MIDWEST UNDER MAINLY ZONAL FLOW ALOFT. GLOBAL ENSEMBLES
SUGGEST A CHANGE TO SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT FOR THIS COMING
WEEKEND, THOUGH PRECIPITATION CHANCES AND THE LOCATION OF
EMBEDDED SHORTWAVE ENERGY TO DRIVE THOSE PRECIPITATION CHANCES
REMAIN MORE UNCERTAIN. FOR NOW, WE ARE HOLDING NEAR THE NBM MEAN
FOR PRECIPITATION CHANCES SATURDAY AND SUNDAY WITH A BROAD
25-45% CHANCE POPS. WE DO HAVE HIGHER CONFIDENCE IN THE WARMER
THAN NORMAL TEMPERATURES PERSISTING THROUGH THIS COMING WEEKEND,
WITH HIGHS IN THE MID 50S TO MID 60S AND SLIGHTLY COOLER NEAR
LAKE SUPERIOR DUE TO ONSHORE EASTERLY FLOW. SATURDAY NIGHT AND
SUNDAY NIGHT LOW TEMPERATURES ARE ALSO FORECAST TO REMAIN ABOVE
FREEZING.
AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z WEDNESDAY/
ISSUED AT 638 PM CDT MON OCT 26 2026
LOW PRESSURE MOVING INTO THE AREA TONIGHT WILL BE BRINGING
WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION AND DETERIORATING FLIGHT CONDITIONS.
CURRENT VFR CIGS ARE EXPECTED TO LOWER TO IFR, AND EVEN LIFR FOR
SOME TERMINALS, TONIGHT INTO EARLY TUESDAY MORNING AS THE LOW
PRESSURE CONTINUES TO PROPAGATE NORTH. RAIN WILL BE THE MAIN
PRECIPITATION TYPE, ALTHOUGH A PERIOD OF LIGHT SNOW IS FORECAST FOR
KINL AND KHIB EARLY TUESDAY MORNING AS TEMPERATURES DROP BELOW
FREEZING. VISIBILITY WILL BE IMPROVING BY TUESDAY AFTERNOON,
ALTHOUGH LOWER STRATUS IS ANTICIPATED TO LINGER THROUGH THE PERIOD.
EXPECT SOUTHEAST WINDS TO INCREASE ON TUESDAY AS THIS LOW PRESSURE
MOVES THROUGH.
MARINE /FOR NEARSHORE WATERS OF WESTERN LAKE SUPERIOR/
ISSUED AT 1250 PM CDT MON OCT 26 2026
MINIMAL CHANGES TO THE MARINE FORECAST WITH THIS UPDATE.
NORTHEAST WINDS AROUND 5 TO 15 KNOTS TODAY INCREASE TONIGHT AS
LOW PRESSURE MOVES INTO THE UPPER MIDWEST, WHILE WIND DIRECTIONS
WILL VEER FROM NORTHEAST TO EAST-SOUTHEAST. SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORIES HAVE BEEN ISSUED FOR THE NORTH SHORE TO TWIN PORTS TO
APOSTLE ISLANDS LATE TONIGHT INTO TUESDAY AS WINDS GUST UP TO
AROUND 25 KT AND WAVES BUILD ALONG PORTIONS OF THE NORTH SHORE
UP TO 5 FEET. WINDS WEAKEN ON TUESDAY EVENING INTO WEDNESDAY AND
BECOME SOUTH TO SOUTHWESTERLY AS THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM EXITS
NORTHEAST OF THE REGION.
EXPECT LIGHT TO MODERATE RAIN TONIGHT INTO TUESDAY WITH SOME
VISIBILITY REDUCTION, BUT VISIBILITIES WILL REMAIN ABOVE 1 NM.
FOR THE OPEN WATER DISCUSSION, REFER TO THE NWS MARQUETTE AREA
FORECAST DISCUSSION AT WEATHER.GOV/MQT.
FIRE WEATHER
ISSUED AT 144 PM CDT MON OCT 26 2026
A COUPLE CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION ARE EXPECTED THROUGH MID-
WEEK, WITH THE FIRST LATER TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY AND SECOND
ROUND WEDNESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT. MOST OF THE PRECIPITATION
WILL BE IN THE FORM OF LIGHT TO MODERATE RAIN, THOUGH SOME VERY
LIGHT SNOW (0.1" OR LESS) COULD MIX IN BRIEFLY IN NORTH-CENTRAL
MINNESOTA TO THE INLAND ARROWHEAD TONIGHT TO EARLY TUESDAY
MORNING. ALSO, A FEW EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS CAN'T BE RULED OUT
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING, THOUGH NO SEVERE WEATHER IS
EXPECTED GIVEN LIMITED INSTABILITY. FORECAST RAINFALL TOTALS FOR THE
REST OF TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY EVENING RANGE FROM 0.05 TO 1",
BEING LOWEST IN FAR NORTH-CENTRAL MINNESOTA, AND HIGHEST (I.E.,
0.50" TO LOCALLY 1") FROM THE BRAINERD LAKES EAST INTO THE ST.
CROIX RIVER VALLEY. WE ALSO CAN'T RULE OUT A 10-20% FOR A FEW
STRAY RAIN SHOWERS/SPRINKLES IN NORTHWEST WISCONSIN TUESDAY
NIGHT, BUT ADDITIONAL ACCUMULATION AMOUNTS WILL BE NEGLIGIBLE AT
BEST. THE QUICKER, MORE PROGRESSIVE NATURE OF THE
WEDNESDAY RAIN SHOULD CAP RAINFALL AMOUNTS A BIT, WITH FORECAST
ACCUMULATIONS GENERALLY ON THE ORDER OF 0.2-0.5" FOR MOST OF THE
NORTHLAND, LOWEST IN NORTH-CENTRAL WISCONSIN.
EXPECT INCREASING CLOUD COVER FROM SOUTH TO NORTH THE REST OF
TODAY AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM, WITH MIN RH
THIS AFTERNOON BOTTOMING OUT BETWEEN 40-50%. RH RECOVERS TO
90-100% TONIGHT WITH RAIN MOVING IN. THEN, EXPECT BREEZY EAST TO
SOUTHEAST WINDS GUSTING 15 TO 25 MPH ON TUESDAY AS THE LOW
PRESSURE MOVES THROUGH, SHIFTING SOUTH TO SOUTHWESTERLY AND
WEAKENING TUESDAY NIGHT. MIN RH TUESDAY STAYS AT OR ABOVE
60%. ANOTHER SYSTEM MOVING THROUGH AND RAIN CHANCES ON WEDNESDAY
WILL KEEP MIN RH AT 55% OR HIGHER. IN THE WAKE OF THE WEDNESDAY
LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM, EXPECT NORTHWEST WINDS ON THURSDAY AND
LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS ON FRIDAY ALONG WITH NO PRECIPITATION
IN THE FORECAST AS HIGH PRESSURE MOVES THROUGH. MIN RH THURSDAY
AND FRIDAY COULD DIP DOWN INTO THE 40-50% RANGE DEPENDING ON HOW
DRY THE AIRMASS COMING IN IS. TEMPERATURES WILL BE NEAR TO
SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL THIS AFTERNOON AND THEN TURN SEASONABLY
WARM IN THE 50S AND 60S THROUGH THE REST OF THIS WEEK.
SEE THE FIRE WEATHER FORECAST PRODUCT FOR A MORE THOROUGH
BREAKDOWN OF FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS.
DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MN...NONE.
WI...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 10 AM TUESDAY TO 1 AM CDT WEDNESDAY
FOR LSZ140.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 4 AM TO 10 PM CDT TUESDAY FOR LSZ141-
142.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 4 AM TO 7 PM CDT TUESDAY FOR
LSZ143>145.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 7 AM TO 4 PM CDT TUESDAY FOR LSZ146-
147-150.
DISCUSSION...ROTHSTEIN
AVIATION...UNRUH
MARINE...ROTHSTEIN
FIRE WEATHER...ROTHSTEIN
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.
Main Text Page