567
FXUS63 KDLH 172325
AFDDLH
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DULUTH MN
625 PM CDT WED SEP 17 2025
KEY MESSAGES
- OFF AND ON RAIN CHANCES RETURN THIS EVENING AND WILL PERSIST
THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
- A FEW THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE THROUGH THE WEEKEND BUT NO
SEVERE WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.
- TEMPERATURES COOL TOMORROW WITH EASTERLY WINDS RETURNING. HIGHS
WILL BE IN THE 60S AND 70S WITH SOME 50S BY THE LAKE.
- INCREASED RISK OF RIP CURRENTS IN THE TWIN PORTS FOR THURSDAY AND
FRIDAY.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 241 PM CDT WED SEP 17 2025
CURRENT CONDITIONS/TODAY:
MOSTLY QUIET ACROSS MOST THE NORTHLAND THIS AFTERNOON WITH
SATELLITE AND RADAR SHOWING SHOWERS AND STORMS OVER SOUTH
CENTRAL MN. THERE IS A LINE OF CONVERGENCE EXTENDING FROM NORTH
OF THE TWIN CITIES INTO NORTHERN PRICE WHERE A FEW TOWERS ARE
BEGINNING TO GROW WHICH WILL LEAD TO SOME ISOLATED STORMS. ALOFT
WE STILL HAVE AN OMEGA BLOCKING PATTERN IMPACTING OUR REGION
WITH A PAIR OF UPPER LEVEL LOWS TRAPPED OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS
AND CANADIAN PRAIRIES. ON EITHER SIDE OF THE LOWS WE HAVE
ANTICYCLONIC FLOW LOCKING THE NORTHLAND INTO OUR ABNORMALLY WARM
TEMPERATURES. ALPW ALSO HIGHLIGHTS A FAIR AMOUNT OF MOISTURE
EXTENDING ACROSS THE UPPER MIDWEST.
RAIN SET UP THROUGH THE WEEKEND:
THE PAIR OF UPPER LEVEL LOWS TO OUR WEST CONTINUE TO SLOWLY PIN
WHEEL AROUND EACH OTHER. THE MORE VERTICALLY STACKED ONE OVER SD
WILL START TO ENCROACH MORE ACROSS MN AS ITS WARM FRONT BEGINS TO
MARCH SOUTH TO NORTH INTO THE NORTHLAND. THE INCREASED ISENTROPIC
ASCENT MIXED WITH OUR MOIST ATMOSPHERE WILL IN TURN LEAD TO
INCREASED PRECIPITATION CHANCES OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS.
CAMS SUGGEST THE FIRST WAVE OF PRECIPITATION ENTERS FROM THE SOUTH
AFTER 7 PM AND CONTINUES NORTH THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING. AFTER THIS
FIRST WAVE WE WILL STILL MAINTAIN RAIN CHANCES (20-30%) THROUGH THE
DAY AS POCKETS OF SHOWERS WILL STILL BE POSSIBLE UNDER OUR SOUTHERLY
LOW LEVEL FLOW. THE BETTER CHANCES FOR RAIN THURSDAY AFTERNOON WILL
LIKELY BE CLOSER TO THE SURFACE CONVERGENCE NEAR THE LOW AS IT MOVES
OUT OF THE SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE RED RIVER VALLEY TOWARDS THE
BRAINERD LAKES REGION. DETAILS ON TIMING AND PLACEMENT OF
PRECIPITATION GETS A LITTLE MORE MURKY BEYOND FRIDAY. WHILE THE
OMEGA BLOCKING PATTERN DOES BREAK DOWN WE ARE STILL LEFT WITH
SEVERAL UPPER LEVEL LOWS MOVING THROUGH THE AREA FOR THE WEEKEND. AS
SUCH WE MAINTAIN POPS OF 40-60% THROUGH SUNDAY.
ACTIVE WEATHER IMPACTS:
WITH THE ONGOING RAIN CHANCES THROUGH THE WEEKEND WE WILL HAVE SOME
INTERMITTENT CHANCES FOR THUNDERSTORMS AT TIMES. INSTABILITY WILL
VARY BETWEEN 0-700 J/KG AND SHEAR IS ON THE WEAKER SIDE LEADING TO
NO SEVERE STORM THREAT. WE DO LOOK TO INTRODUCE SOME BETTER SHEAR
SUNDAY AFTERNOON, BUT THERE REMAINS TOO MUCH UNCERTAINTY ON SURFACE
FEATURES TO WORRY ABOUT SEVERE WEATHER AT THIS TIME. WITH ACTIVE
WEATHER BEING PRESENT FOR SUCH AN EXTENDED PERIOD OF TIME WE COULD
HAVE SOME CONCERN FOR EXCESSIVE RAINFALL. WPC DOES HAVE OUR REGION
HIGHLIGHTED IN A MARGINAL RISK THROUGH SATURDAY. PWATS OVER THE
REGION ARE NEAR THE 90TH PERCENTILE OF GUIDANCE WITH THE MORNING
SOUNDING OUT OF MPX HAVING AROUND 1.38" MODEL SOUNDINGS ALSO SHOW A
WARM CLOUD DEPTH OF OVER 10,000FT WHICH WILL ALLOW FOR BIGGER RAIN
DROPS. THE WIDELY SCATTERED NATURE WILL BE WHAT PREVENTS WIDESPREAD
FLOODING BUT SOME HEAVY RAINFALL AT TIMES WILL BE POSSIBLE.
TEMPERATURES:
ONE MORE WARM DAY OUT THERE TODAY, ALTHOUGH THE CLOUD COVER ACROSS
FAR NORTHERN MN HAS LIMITED HOW QUICKLY TEMPERATURES WERE EXPECTED TO
INCREASE, SO WE HAVE PULLED THE AFTERNOON TEMPS DOWN A FEW DEGREES
WITH THIS FORECAST UPDATE. AS THE AFOREMENTIONED SYSTEM GRAVITATES
CLOSER TO THE NORTHLAND WE WILL SEE WINDS DRAWN TOWARD IT OUT OF THE
EAST. THIS WILL PROVIDE THE REGION WITH MUCH COOLER TEMPERATURES
WITH HIGHS IN THE 60S AND SOME IN THE 50S BY LAKE SUPERIOR. THESE
WINDS WILL ALSO LEAD TO FUNNELING AT THE HEAD OF THE LAKE WITH
INCREASED WAVE ACTION EXPECTED. RIP CURRENTS WILL LIKELY BE A
PROBLEM FOR THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. LOOK FOR TEMPERATURES TO CLIMB BACK
INTO THE 70S ON SUNDAY WHEN SOUTHERLY WINDS RETURN.
AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z FRIDAY/
ISSUED AT 622 PM CDT WED SEP 17 2025
SEASONABLY DEEP MOISTURE ADVECTION ALONG A STATIONARY FRONT IS
CREATING A LINE OF THUNDERSTORMS THIS EVENING SOUTH OF US HWY 2.
EXPECT LIMITED AND PERIODIC IMPACTS TO MAINLY VISIBILITY FROM
THE HEAVY RAINFALL THIS EVENING FROM THOSE SHOWERS. CEILINGS
REMAIN VFR THROUGH 09-12Z BEFORE QUICKLY DECREASING TO MVFR AS
THE NEXT ROUND OF RAINFALL LIFTS NORTHWARD AGAIN FOR THURSDAY
DAYTIME RAIN SHOWERS. EASTERLY WINDS QUICKLY INCREASE FOR THE
LAKE SHORELINE TERMINALS, ESPECIALLY IN THE TWIN PORTS FROM 08
TO 10Z TONIGHT. GUSTY EASTERLY WINDS 20-30 KNOTS WILL THEN
OCCUR THROUGH THE REST OF THE TAF PERIOD FOR THOSE TERMINALS.
MARINE /FOR NEAR SHORE WATERS OF WESTERN LAKE SUPERIOR/
ISSUED AT 241 PM CDT WED SEP 17 2025
NORTHEASTERLY WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO RAMP UP LATER THIS EVENING WITH
GUSTS IN EXCESS OF 25 KNOTS AT TIMES. A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY HAS
BEEN ISSUED FOR ALL OF THE NEAR-SHORE WATERS. THIS FLOW IS EXPECTED
TO PERSIST THROUGH FRIDAY WITH WINDS TAPERING OFF LATE FRIDAY. WAVES
WILL BUILD TO 3-6 FT AND WILL BE SLOWER TO DIMINISH AS WE HEAD INTO
SATURDAY. ADDITIONALLY, WE WILL BE IN AN ACTIVE WEATHER PATTERN WITH
OFF AND ON RAIN CHANCES WITH EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS AT TIMES
BEGINNING TONIGHT AND LASTING THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
FOR THE OPEN WATER DISCUSSION, REFER TO THE NWS MARQUETTE AREA
FORECAST DISCUSSION AT WEATHER.GOV/MQT.
DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MN...NONE.
WI...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 4 AM THURSDAY TO 7 AM CDT FRIDAY FOR
LSZ121-148.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 6 AM THURSDAY TO 1 AM CDT SATURDAY
FOR LSZ140-141.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 4 AM THURSDAY TO 1 AM CDT SATURDAY
FOR LSZ142>147-150.
DISCUSSION...BRITT
AVIATION...NLY
MARINE...BRITT
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.
Main Text Page