123
FXUS63 KDLH 180003
AFDDLH
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DULUTH MN
603 PM CST TUE FEB 17 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- A POWERFUL AND MESSY WINTER SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO BRING HEAVY,
WET SNOW, FREEZING RAIN, MIXED PRECIPITATION, AND STRONG WINDS
TO THE NORTHLAND THIS EVENING TO THURSDAY MORNING. BLIZZARD
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED ALONG THE NORTH SHORE.
- STORM AND GALE WARNINGS ARE POSTED FOR WESTERN LAKE SUPERIOR FROM
VERY STRONG EASTERLY WINDS GUSTING TO 55 KNOTS.
- SECONDARY SYSTEM THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY BRINGS ANOTHER
ROUND OF LIGHT TO MAYBE MODERATE SNOWFALL TO FAR EASTERN
MINNESOTA AND ESPECIALLY NORTHWEST WISCONSIN.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 222 PM CST TUE FEB 17 2026
SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS INCREASING MOISTURE BEING PULLED INTO
THE MINNESOTA AND WISCONSIN STATE AREA ALOFT THIS AFTERNOON AS
A POWERFUL AND COMPLEX WINTER STORM IS SET TO IMPACT THE
NORTHLAND BEGINNING THIS EVENING. THAT MOISTURE WILL INTERACT
WITH AN APPROACHING AND STRENGTHENING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVING
THROUGH THE UPPER MIDWEST. PRECIPITATION WILL START AS RAIN OR
A WINTRY MIX OF FREEZING RAIN AND SLEET ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA
BEFORE TRANSITIONING TO HEAVY, WET SNOW. THIS SNOW WILL HAVE A
HIGH WATER CONTENT, MAKING IT VERY HEAVY AND DIFFICULT TO MOVE.
THIS TYPE OF SNOW STICKS EFFICIENTLY TO TREES AND POWER LINES,
WHICH IS EXPECTED TO COMBINE WITH HIGH WINDS TO CREATE A RISK
FOR POWER OUTAGES.
THE GREATEST IMPACTS WILL BE FELT ALONG THE NORTH SHORE OF LAKE
SUPERIOR AND INTO THE ARROWHEAD. HERE, THE TERRAIN WILL ENHANCE
SNOWFALL RATES, WITH THE MOST INTENSE PERIODS EXPECTED TONIGHT
AND WEDNESDAY MORNING. IN THESE AREAS, SNOWFALL RATES COULD REACH
2 TO 3 INCHES PER HOUR. COMBINED WITH VERY STRONG EASTERLY
WINDS GUSTING BETWEEN 50 AND 60 MPH, BLIZZARD CONDITIONS WILL
MAKE TRAVEL VERY DANGEROUS OR IMPOSSIBLE, ESPECIALLY ALONG THE
HIGHWAY 61 CORRIDOR. NEAR WHITEOUT CONDITIONS ARE ALSO POSSIBLE
FURTHER INLAND ACROSS THE IRON RANGE AND THE TWIN PORTS WHERE
WINDS WILL STILL BE QUITE STRONG.
AS THE SYSTEM SLOWLY MOVES THROUGH ON WEDNESDAY, A DRY SLOT IS
LIKELY TO PULL THROUGH NORTHWEST WISCONSIN AND EVEN INTO THE
ARROWHEAD. THIS SETUP LEADS TO CONCERNS FOR A TEMPORARY TURNOVER
FROM A WINTRY MIX (NORTHWEST WISCONSIN) TO DRIZZLE/FREEZING
DRIZZLE. UP IN THE ARROWHEAD THIS MAY ALSO DAMPEN SNOWFALL FOR
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING BEFORE MORE MOISTURE WRAPS BACK
AROUND THE LOW. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN RELATIVELY STEADY IN
THE MID 20S TO LOW 30S THROUGH WEDNESDAY, KEEPING THE
PRECIPITATION TYPE MOSTLY WINTRY. BY THURSDAY, THE MAIN SYSTEM
BEGINS TO PULL AWAY, BUT LINGERING SNOW SHOWERS WILL ADD LIGHT
ADDITIONAL ACCUMULATIONS.
THE LARGEST HEADLINE CHANGES FOR WINTER WEATHER WERE TO ADD IN
SOUTHERN CASS THROUGH SOUTHERN AITKIN COUNTIES TO ADVISORIES FOR
TONIGHT'S LIGHT FREEZING RAIN AND ICE ACCUMULATIONS AND UP TO A
FEW INCHES OF SNOWFALL FOR NORTHERN PARTS OF THOSE COUNTIES
WEDNESDAY DAYTIME. THE OTHER PREVIOUSLY ISSUED WINTER WEATHER
HEADLINES REMAIN LARGELY UNCHANGED BEYOND SOME END AND BEGINNING
TIME CHANGES (DELAY ONSET A FEW HOURS THIS EVENING AND SHORTEN
UP SOME ZONES IN NORTH-CENTRAL WISCONSIN FOR A SOONER END TIME)
WITH THIS AFTERNOON FORECAST PACKAGE.
A SECONDARY SYSTEM IS LOOKING TO CREATE ANOTHER ROUND OF LIGHT
ACCUMULATING SNOWFALL TO THE REGION LATE THURSDAY NIGHT INTO
FRIDAY. RIGHT NOW THE LOW CENTER TRACK MAINLY FAVORED NORTHWEST
WISCONSIN FOR A FEW INCHES OF FRESH SNOWFALL LATE THIS WORK
WEEK. GUIDANCE HAS TRENDED FURTHER NORTHWARD THOUGH OVER THE
LAST 24 HOURS ON THIS LATE WEEK SYSTEM TO PRODUCE EVEN A 20-40%
CHANCE OF LIGHT ACCUMULATING SNOWFALL NOW FOR FAR EASTERN
MINNESOTA. A MORE WINTER-LIKE TEMPERATURE FORECAST IS SHAPING
UP FOR THIS WEEKEND AND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. THIS COOLER
PATTERN COULD SUPPORT A PERIOD OF SOUTH SHORE SNOWBELT LAKE
EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS FOR LATE WEEKEND AND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.
AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z THURSDAY/
ISSUED AT 603 PM CST TUE FEB 17 2026
VFR CONDITIONS CURRENTLY PREVAIL ACROSS THE NORTHLAND, BUT ARE
EXPECTED TO DEGRADE THROUGH THE EVENING AND TONIGHT AS A WINTER
STORM MOVES INTO THE REGION. RAIN/SNOW MIX IS EXPECTED AT BRD
AND HYR ALONG WITH PERIODS OF ALL RAIN. SNOW WILL BE THE
PREDOMINATE WEATHER AT INL, HIB, AND DLH. SNOW WILL BE WET AND
HEAVY IN CHARACTER AND, COUPLED WITH THE VERY STRONG EASTERLY
WINDS, WILL LEAD TO MVFR TO IFR OR LOWER VISIBILITIES. CEILINGS
WILL EVENTUALLY LOWER TO MVFR THEN IFR AS WELL. ANY SIGNIFICANT
IMPROVEMENT IS NOT EXPECTED UNTIL AFTER THIS TAF PERIOD.
EASTERLY WINDS WILL GUST TO 30 TO 40 KNOTS WITH GUSTS TO 45
KNOTS AT DLH AND HIB. A STRONG LOW LEVEL JET WILL ALSO BRING
LLWS TO MOST OF THE TERMINALS THIS EVENING AND TONIGHT AS WELL
WITH A 65 TO 75 JET ABOVE 2000 FEET AGL.
MARINE /FOR NEARSHORE WATERS OF WESTERN LAKE SUPERIOR/
ISSUED AT 125 PM CST TUE FEB 17 2026
DANGEROUS CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED FOR WESTERN LAKE SUPERIOR. GALE
WARNINGS ARE IN EFFECT NOW, TRANSITIONING TO STORM WARNINGS FOR THE
NORTH SHORE AT 9 PM THIS EVENING. EAST TO NORTHEAST WINDS WILL
GUST TO 55 KNOTS WITH WAVES BUILDING TO 7 TO 11 FEET,
OCCASIONALLY REACHING 14 FEET, THROUGH WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. AN
EXTENDED PERIOD OF SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES ARE EXPECTED AFTER THE
STORM AND GALE WARNINGS DROP OFF AS LINGERING ELEVATED SWELL
IS FORECAST TO LAST WELL INTO THURSDAY FOR ICE FREE AREAS. THE
SOUTH SHORE REMAINS AT GALE WARNINGS FOR THIS ENTIRE EVENT.
HEAVY SNOW WILL SEVERELY REDUCE VISIBILITY TO NEAR ZERO AT
TIMES.
FOR THE OPEN WATER DISCUSSION, REFER TO THE NWS MARQUETTE AREA
FORECAST DISCUSSION AT WEATHER.GOV/MQT.
DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MN...BLIZZARD WARNING FROM 9 PM THIS EVENING TO NOON CST THURSDAY
FOR MNZ020-021.
WINTER STORM WARNING FROM 9 PM THIS EVENING TO MIDNIGHT CST
WEDNESDAY NIGHT FOR MNZ010-011-018.
WINTER STORM WARNING FROM 9 PM THIS EVENING TO NOON CST
THURSDAY FOR MNZ012.
WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL NOON CST THURSDAY FOR MNZ019-037.
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT CST WEDNESDAY NIGHT FOR
MNZ025-026-033>036.
WI...WINTER STORM WARNING FROM 9 PM THIS EVENING TO NOON CST
THURSDAY FOR WIZ001-002.
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 9 PM THIS EVENING TO 6 PM CST
THURSDAY FOR WIZ003-004.
MARINE...GALE WARNING UNTIL 9 PM CST THIS EVENING FOR LSZ140>144.
STORM WARNING FROM 9 PM THIS EVENING TO 6 PM CST WEDNESDAY FOR
LSZ140>144.
BLIZZARD WARNING FROM 9 PM THIS EVENING TO NOON CST THURSDAY
FOR LSZ142.
GALE WARNING UNTIL 10 PM CST WEDNESDAY FOR LSZ145-146-148-150.
DISCUSSION...NLY
AVIATION...BJH
MARINE...NLY
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