246  
FXUS63 KDLH 171134 AAA  
AFDDLH  
 
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED  
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DULUTH MN  
634 AM CDT WED OCT 17 2018  
   
UPDATE
 
 
ISSUED AT 624 AM CDT WED OCT 17 2018  
 
UPDATED FOR THE 12Z AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW.  
 

 
   
SHORT TERM
 
(TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY)  
ISSUED AT 247 AM CDT WED OCT 17 2018  
 
BREEZY AND COOL TODAY WITH SKIES CLEARING THIS AFTERNOON.  
ISOLATED SNOW SHOWERS EARLY. TEMPERATURES TREND WARMER WITH  
SOUTHWEST WINDS FOR THURSDAY.  
 
FAIRLY QUIET SHORT TERM SHAPING UP ACROSS THE NORTHLAND. COLD AIR  
ADVECTION AND CYCLONIC FLOW ALOFT WILL CONTINUE THE BREEZY AND  
COOL CONDITIONS OF THE PAST FEW DAYS. NORTHWEST WINDS OF 10 TO 15  
MPH WITH GUSTS TO 25 MPH ARE EXPECTED. A FEW ISOLATED SNOW SHOWERS  
ARE POSSIBLE WHILE CLOUDS LINGER. EARLY SEASON LAKE SUPERIOR AND  
INLAND LAKE TEMPERATURES ARE QUITE WARM AND LAKE EFFECT STREAMERS  
HAVE BEEN OBSERVED ON GOES-16 IMAGERY DOWNWIND OF LAKE MANITOBA.  
MULTI-LAKE BANDING IS POSSIBLE OVER THE MANY INLAND LAKES WHILE  
THE STRATUS LAYER REMAINS IN PLACE. THEREAFTER, CONFIDENCE IN SNOW  
SHOWERS DECREASES RAPIDLY. PORTIONS OF THE BAYFIELD PENINSULA AND  
NORTHERN IRON COUNTY MAY CONTINUE TO SEE LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS  
INTO THE AFTERNOON BEFORE DRY AIR ADVECTION BEGINS TO LIMIT THE  
LES POTENTIAL. TEMPERATURES TODAY WILL REMAIN WELL BELOW NORMAL  
FOR MIDDLE OCTOBER WITH READINGS IN THE LOW 30S IN THE NORTHEAST  
PORTIONS OF THE ARROWHEAD TO THE LOW 40S IN CENTRAL MINNESOTA.  
CLEAR SKIES ARE EXPECTED TONIGHT WITH WINDS DIMINISHING BEFORE  
SUNSET. LOOK FOR OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE LOW 20S IN THE NORTHEAST  
PORTIONS OF THE ARROWHEAD TO THE LOW 30S IN CENTRAL MINNESOTA.  
THURSDAY LOOKS TO BE SUNNY AND MUCH WARMER. STRONG WARM AIR  
ADVECTION AT 925 AND 850 MB ON WEST TO SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL BOOST  
TEMPERATURES ABOVE NORMAL. HIGHS ARE FORECAST IN THE LOW 60S FROM  
THE BRAINERD LAKES TO INTERNATIONAL FALLS WITH UPPER 50S FARTHER  
EAST. MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES ARE EXPECTED. SURFACE WINDS WILL LIKELY  
BE GUSTY ONCE AGAIN, BUT WILL TURN SOUTHWESTERLY OVERNIGHT.  
   
LONG TERM
 
(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)  
ISSUED AT 247 AM CDT WED OCT 17 2018  
 
THE OVERALL EXTENDED FORECAST CONTINUES TO SHOW A FEW ROUNDS OF  
PRECIPITATION, MAINLY A RAIN/SNOW MIX, WITH SOME LAKE EFFECT SNOW  
ALONG THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF THE PENOKEE RANGE IN NORTHERN  
WISCONSIN. TEMPERATURES WILL GENERALLY REMAIN NEAR TO BELOW  
SEASONAL AVERAGE.  
 
THURSDAY EVENING WILL START OUT DRY AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE  
REMAINS SITUATED OVER THE EAST-CENTRAL UNITED STATES. HOWEVER, A  
MID-LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH AND ATTENDANT SURFACE COLD FRONT WILL  
ENTER THE REGION, AND BRING SMALL CHANCES FOR RAIN SHOWERS AS A  
WARM AIR MASS REMAINS IN PLACE, CHARACTERIZED BY 925 MB  
TEMPERATURES IN THE 5 TO 10 DEGREE C RANGE. FRIDAY MORNING LOWS  
WILL BE ABOVE FREEZING ACROSS THE NORTHLAND, IN THE LOWER TO  
MIDDLE 40S. A FEW ADDITIONAL MID-LEVEL IMPULSES WILL KEEP CHANCES  
OF PRECIPITATION IN THE PICTURE FRIDAY EVENING AND SATURDAY  
MORNING DUE TO A PUSH OF COLD AIR ADVECTION ON NORTHWESTERLY  
CYCLONIC FLOW. THIS COLD AIR ADVECTION, CHARACTERIZED BY 850 MB  
TEMPERATURES IN THE -7 TO -10 DEGREE C RANGE, SHOULD SUPPORT SOME  
LAKE EFFECT SNOW ALONG THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF THE PENOKEE RANGE  
IN NORTHERN WISCONSIN, WHERE UP TO A FEW INCHES OF SNOWFALL IS  
POSSIBLE. HIGH TEMPERATURES ON SATURDAY WILL RETURN TO WELL BELOW  
SEASONAL AVERAGES, INTO THE MIDDLE 30S NORTH TO THE UPPER 30S AND  
LOWER 40S SOUTH.  
 
FROM SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY, THE GENERAL THEME WILL BE DRIER  
CONDITIONS AS LARGE-SCALE RIDGING REDEVELOPS OVER THE  
INTERMOUNTAIN WEST STATES. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL ALLOW  
SOUTHERLY FLOW AND INCREASED WARM AIR ADVECTION TO KEEP THE HIGH  
TEMPERATURES IN THE 40S AND LOWER 50S THROUGH MID-WEEK. A FEW MID-  
LEVEL WAVES COULD BRING SMALL CHANCES OF PRECIPITATION, MAINLY  
MONDAY AFTERNOON AND AGAIN TUESDAY MORNING, BUT THERE APPEARS TO  
BE A LACK OF DEEP MOISTURE TO SUPPORT WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION.  
LOW TEMPERATURES WILL STILL DIP TO NEAR OR BELOW FREEZING FOR  
MONDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING.  
 

 
   
AVIATION
 
(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z THURSDAY MORNING)  
ISSUED AT 634 AM CDT WED OCT 17 2018  
 
SOME LINGERING MVFR CEILINGS WILL QUICKLY DIMINISH THIS MORNING,  
LEADING TO VFR CONDITIONS FOR THE REST OF THE TAF PERIOD.  
NORTHWEST WINDS WILL REMAIN GUSTY TODAY, WITH GUSTS BETWEEN 15 TO  
25 KNOTS THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN BUILD  
INTO THE REGION LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING, WHICH WILL BRING  
CLEAR SKIES THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. SOME LOW-LEVEL WIND  
SHEAR IS ANTICIPATED AT KHIB AND KINL AS STRONGER WINDS DEVELOP  
BETWEEN 1 TO 2 KFT. THE LOW-LEVEL WIND SHEAR WILL LIKELY LAST OVER  
THESE AREAS THROUGH MUCH OF THURSDAY MORNING.  
 

 
   
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
 
 
DLH 39 30 58 45 / 10 0 0 20  
INL 36 28 61 44 / 10 0 0 10  
BRD 43 32 64 46 / 0 0 0 20  
HYR 41 29 60 45 / 10 0 0 10  
ASX 41 29 61 47 / 20 0 0 10  
 

 
   
DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
 
 
WI...NONE.  
MN...NONE.  
LS...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM CDT THIS MORNING FOR LSZ140>146.  
 
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 1 PM CDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR LSZ121-  
147-148.  
 

 
 

 
 
UPDATE...JTS  
SHORT TERM...HUYCK  
LONG TERM...JTS  
AVIATION...JTS  
 
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