709
FXUS63 KDLH 060531
AFDDLH
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DULUTH MN
1231 AM CDT MON JUL 6 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- SCATTERED SHOWERS AND AN ISOLATED STORM ARE POSSIBLE TODAY,
BUT MOST OF THE NORTHLAND WILL REMAIN DRY AND PLEASANT.
- HOT AND HUMID CONDITIONS RETURN MONDAY, FOLLOWED BY A THREAT
OF STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS MONDAY EVENING INTO THE
OVERNIGHT.
- FLASH FLOODING BECOMES A CONCERN TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY AS A
STATIONARY FRONT LINGERS IN THE REGION WITH HIGH ATMOSPHERIC
MOISTURE CONTENT AND FAVORABLE FOR HEAVY RAINFALL ALONG THE
FRONT FLOW.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 1220 PM CDT SUN JUL 5 2026
HIGH PRESSURE AND AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE ARE OVER THE NORTHLAND
TODAY, PROVIDING A GENERALLY PLEASANT AND QUIET END TO THE
HOLIDAY WEEKEND. THERE IS STILL A BIT OF LINGERING MOISTURE AND
MINOR INSTABILITY ACROSS THE REGION, WHICH COULD SPARK A FEW
MEANDERING, ISOLATED RAIN SHOWERS OR PERHAPS A STRAY NON-SEVERE
THUNDERSTORM THIS AFTERNOON. MOST FOLKS WILL STAY COMPLETELY DRY
WITH LIGHT WINDS AND COMFORTABLE HUMIDITY LEVELS. EXPECT HIGH
TEMPERATURES TO REACH THE UPPER 70S TO LOWER 80S INLAND, WHILE
ONSHORE NORTHEAST WINDS KEEP THE IMMEDIATE LAKE SUPERIOR
SHORELINE NOTICEABLY COOLER. TONIGHT WILL FEATURE MOSTLY CLEAR
SKIES AND QUIET WEATHER AS HIGH PRESSURE DRIFTS OVERHEAD.
MONDAY BRINGS A NOTICEABLE SHIFT IN THE AIRMASS AS SOUTHERLY
RETURN FLOW PULLS HOT AND HUMID CONDITIONS BACK INTO THE AREA.
HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL SURGE WELL INTO THE MIDDLE AND UPPER 80S
FOR A VAST MAJORITY OF THE REGION. MOST OF THE DAYLIGHT HOURS
WILL REMAIN DRY UNDER PLENTY OF SUNSHINE. HOWEVER, A COLD FRONT
WILL BEGIN TO DROP SOUTHWARD OUT OF CANADA BY LATE AFTERNOON AND
EVENING. AS THIS FRONT INTERACTS WITH THE HOT AND UNSTABLE
AIRMASS, SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP AND
TRACK NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE AREA MONDAY EVENING INTO
THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. A FEW OF THESE STORMS COULD BE STRONG TO
SEVERE, PACKING A THREAT FOR DAMAGING WIND GUSTS AND LARGE HAIL.
THE WEATHER PATTERN BECOMES HIGHLY CONCERNING FOR LATE TUESDAY
THROUGH THE DAY WEDNESDAY AS THE AFOREMENTIONED COLD FRONT
STALLS OUT AND BECOMES A STATIONARY BOUNDARY DRAPED DIRECTLY
ACROSS OUR REGION. WE ARE CLOSELY MONITORING THIS PERIOD FOR A
HEAVY RAINFALL THREAT. THE INTENSE MOISTURE POOLING ALONG THE
STALLED BOUNDARY CREATES A HIGHLY FAVORABLE SETUP FOR TRAINING
THUNDERSTORMS AND SCATTERED FLASH FLOODING. THE EURO EFI
(EXTREME FORECAST INDEX) SIGNAL FOR THIS TIMEFRAME HAS BEEN
TRENDING UPWARDS SUGGESTING HIGHER CHANCES FOR A SIGNIFICANT
HEAVY RAINFALL EVENT. THE FORECAST CEILING (THE MAXIMUM
PERCENTILE FROM THE NBM FOR THIS SETUP) FOR RAINFALL LOOKS TO BE
AROUND 7 INCHES. WHILE THIS REPRESENTS WHAT COULD HAPPEN OVER A
SMALL AREA, THE MEAN GIVES A BETTER IDEA OF MORE WIDESPREAD
CHANCES WHICH ARE MORE THAN 1" FOR AT LEAST HALF OF OUR FORECAST
AREA. THE MOST LIKELY AREA FOR THIS IS ALONG A BAND FROM
BRAINERD TO MOOSE LAKE TO ASHLAND. THE NORTHERN SIDE OF THIS
BAND WILL LIKELY FADE QPF QUICKLY TO ITS NORTH LEAVING THE
BORDERLANDS OUT OF SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL. NOW, AS THE EARLIER
DISCUSSION MENTIONED THERE IS STILL A BIT OF UNCERTAINTY WITH
THE LOCATION OF WHERE THE COLD FRONT STALLS AND TURNS INTO A
STATIONARY FRONT. UPPER LEVEL FLOW STILL LOOKS FAVORABLE TO PUMP
MOISTURE UP AND OVER THE FRONT SOMEWHERE IN OUR FORECAST AREA
TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY.
BY THURSDAY, THE HEAVY RAIN PRODUCING SYSTEM WILL FINALLY PUSH
EAST OF THE REGION, BRINGING A MUCH NEEDED REPRIEVE FROM THE
OPPRESSIVE HUMIDITY AND UNSETTLED WEATHER. HIGH PRESSURE WILL
BUILD BACK IN, ALLOWING DEWPOINTS TO FALL BACK INTO THE MORE
COMFORTABLE 50S AND LOWER 60S. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL GENERALLY
HOVER IN THE UPPER 70S TO LOWER 80S FOR THURSDAY AND FRIDAY WITH
PLENTY OF SUNSHINE AND DRY CONDITIONS EXPECTED. AS WE HEAD INTO
NEXT WEEKEND, UPPER LEVEL RIDGING WILL BEGIN TO AMPLIFY ONCE
AGAIN OVER THE CENTRAL UNITED STATES, WHICH WILL SLOWLY START TO
DIAL THE HEAT AND HUMIDITY BACK UP ACROSS THE NORTHLAND.
AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY/
ISSUED AT 1230 AM CDT MON JUL 6 2026
LARGELY VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD. WINDS BECOME
SOUTHERLY THROUGH THE MORNING. A COLD FRONT WITH ATTENDING SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS MAY JUST START TO AFFECT INL AND BRD BY THE END OF
THE TAF PERIOD THIS EVENING. SOME ISOLATED SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE
POSSIBLE.
MARINE /FOR NEARSHORE WATERS OF WESTERN LAKE SUPERIOR/
ISSUED AT 1220 PM CDT SUN JUL 5 2026
QUIET AND BENIGN CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS WESTERN LAKE
SUPERIOR TODAY. NORTHEAST WINDS AROUND 5 TO 10 KNOTS WILL
CONTINUE, KEEPING WAVES AT 1 TO 2 FEET OR LESS. WINDS WILL
BECOME LIGHT AND VARIABLE BY MONDAY, ALLOWING A LOCALIZED LAKE
BREEZE TO DEVELOP DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS. THE NEXT CHANCE
FOR SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE LAKE WILL
ARRIVE MONDAY EVENING AND MONDAY NIGHT. NO HAZARDOUS MARINE
HEADLINES ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE NEXT 72 HOURS.
FOR THE OPEN WATER DISCUSSION, REFER TO THE NWS MARQUETTE AREA
FORECAST DISCUSSION AT WEATHER.GOV/MQT.
FIRE WEATHER
ISSUED AT 1220 PM CDT SUN JUL 5 2026
FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS REMAIN VERY LOW THROUGH THE FORECAST
PERIOD. MINIMUM RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES WILL DROP INTO THE 35
TO 45 PERCENT RANGE THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS THE MINNESOTA
ARROWHEAD, BUT LIGHT WINDS WILL PRECLUDE ANY FIRE CONCERNS.
SOUTHERLY WINDS INCREASE TO 5 TO 10 MPH ON MONDAY ALONGSIDE
HOTTER TEMPERATURES, BUT INCREASING MOISTURE WILL KEEP HUMIDITY
WELL ABOVE CRITICAL THRESHOLDS. WIDESPREAD WETTING RAINS ARE
ANTICIPATED TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY THOUGH AS THE MAIN DISCUSSION
ELUDES TO, THERE IS UNCERTAINTY IN WHERE THE HEAVIEST RAINS SET
UP. A RETURN TO HEAT AFTERWARDS.
SEE THE FIRE WEATHER FORECAST PRODUCT FOR A MORE THOROUGH
BREAKDOWN OF FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS.
DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MN...NONE.
WI...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
DISCUSSION...WOLFE
AVIATION...LEVENS
MARINE...WOLFE
FIRE WEATHER...WOLFE
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