204
FXUS63 KDLH 281151
AFDDLH
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DULUTH MN
551 AM CST MON NOV 28 2022
DISCUSSION
(TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 417 AM CST MON NOV 28 2022
SUMMARY: A WINTRY MIX OF FREEZING DRIZZLE AND POSSIBLY SNOW IS
EXPECTED THIS MORNING IN THE FAR EASTERN ARROWHEAD. AN APPROACHING
QUICK BOUT OF SNOWFALL IS LIKELY FIRST IN NORTH-CENTRAL MINNESOTA
LATE THIS MORNING AND SPREADING NORTHEASTWARD TO THE MINNESOTA
BORDERLANDS BY MID-AFTERNOON. THE PRIMARY FORECAST CONCERN REMAINS
THE INCOMING WINTER STORM WHICH COULD BRING PLOWABLE SNOWFALL TO
MUCH OF THE INTERIOR PARTS OF NORTHWEST WISCONSIN. THE HIGHEST
AMOUNTS REMAIN EXPECTED FROM TUESDAY MORNING TO TUESDAY LATE
EVENING IN ASHLAND AND IRON COUNTIES. A WINTER STORM WATCH REMAINS
IN EFFECT FOR ALL OF NORTHWEST WISCONSIN, EXCEPT DOUGLAS COUNTY.
SOUTH SHORE LAKE EFFECT SNOW IS EXPECTED TO WRAP-UP LATER
WEDNESDAY. A COLDER AIR MASS SETS UP WEDNESDAY ONWARD AND IS
EXPECTED TO BRING SINGLE DIGIT LOW TEMPERATURES WEDNESDAY NIGHT
AND INTO NEXT WEEKEND. THE NEXT CHANCE OF SYSTEM SNOW RETURNS
FRIDAY AND INTO SATURDAY.
A STACKED, DEEP LOW PRESSURE CURRENTLY SEEN ON SATELLITE IMAGERY
AS CENTERED IN SOUTHERN SASKATCHEWAN WILL BE THE PRIMARY INFLUENCE
ON WEATHER PATTERNS IN THE NORTHLAND TODAY AND TUESDAY, ALONG WITH
A SOON-TO-BE DEEPENING SURFACE LOW PRESSURE FROM THE U.S. ROCKIES.
SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW IS ONGOING OVER LAKE SUPERIOR THIS MORNING AND
IS HELPING TO CREATE A LAYER OF LOW STRATUS OVER MUCH OF
NORTHEASTERN MINNESOTA. WITH SURFACE TEMPERATURES AWAY FROM THE
IMMEDIATE SHORELINES GENERALLY AT OR BELOW FREEZING AND THERMAL
PROFILES NEAR-SATURATED TO -6 C (PER FORECAST MODEL SOUNDINGS),
THERE COULD BE A ROUND OF FREEZING DRIZZLE IN THIS EASTERN SECTION
OF THE ARROWHEAD; SO THESE MENTIONS REMAIN IN THE WEATHER GRIDS
THROUGH THIS MORNING. AS A WARM FRONT GRADUALLY APPROACHES FROM
THE WEST BY LATE MORNING THOUGH, THE BEST CHANCES OF DRIZZLE SHIFT
NORTHWARD ALONG THE NORTH SHORE AND GRADUALLY EXIT INTO ONTARIO
BY MID-DAY.
THAT APPROACHING WARM FRONT IS PROGGED TO HAVE AN ASSOCIATED AREA
OF FGEN WHICH WILL INTERACT WITH AN ADVECTED FAIRLY MOIST AIR MASS
OVER NORTH-CENTRAL MINNESOTA FIRST LATE THIS MORNING. HIGH RES
MODEL GUIDANCE SHOWS PRECIP AS SNOWFALL BEGINNING AROUND 9-11 AM
THIS MORNING NEAR THE GREATER CASS/CROW WING/SOUTHERN ITASCA
COUNTY AREA AND LIFTING NORTH-NORTHEASTWARD FAIRLY QUICKLY. AN
INCH OF SNOWFALL IS POSSIBLE FROM THIS BAND MOVING INTO NORTHEAST
MINNESOTA AND COULD RESULT IN QUICKLY DECREASING VISIBILITY ON
ROADWAYS WHEN IT PASSES OVERHEAD. PROGS KEEP THIS BAND LIFTING
INTO THE ARROWHEAD WHERE THE BEST CHANCE AT UP TO A COUPLE OF
INCHES ARE MID-AFTERNOON. SHORT-TERM POP UPDATES ARE LIKELY GOING
TO BE REQUIRED TODAY BASED ON HOW QUICKLY THIS SYSTEM MOVES
NORTHEASTWARD OR IF IT LINGERS A BIT LONGER IN ONE LOCATION.
AFTER THE WARM FRONT PASSES OVER THE NORTHLAND LATER THIS EVENING,
SNOWFALL IN THE MN BORDERLANDS SHOULD END TOWARDS MIDNIGHT.
A COLORADO LOW BEGINS TO FORM OVER THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS WHILE
THIS WARM FRONT OVER OUR REGION EXITS INTO ONTARIO. THAT SURFACE
LOW IN THE PLAINS THEN TRACKS INTO THE MID-MISSISSIPPI VALLEY BY
TUESDAY MORNING. IN THE MEANTIME, A COLD FRONT TAKES FORM OVER
EAST-CENTRAL MINNESOTA AND INTO NORTHWEST WISCONSIN TUESDAY
MORNING. THIS DYNAMIC SETUP WILL PROMOTE QUICKLY INCREASING
CHANCES OF SNOWFALL STARTING EARLY TUESDAY MORNING IN NORTHWEST
WISCONSIN WHERE JUST ENOUGH COLDER AIR GETS ADVECTED LATE MONDAY
NIGHT THANKS TO THE POSITION OF THAT CANADIAN LOW. SNOW TO LIQUID
RATIOS ARE GOING TO REMAIN FAIRLY LOW (DOWN TO 7:1) AT FIRST IN
PRICE AND SAWYER COUNTIES AT LEAST THROUGH MID-DAY TUESDAY AS THERE
WILL BE A SURFACE AND LOW-LEVEL BOUNDARY IN THIS GENERAL AREA OF THE
COLDER WESTERLY AIR AND WARMER SOUTHERLY AIR TRANSPORTED UP AHEAD OF
THE SURFACE LOW. SO, THE MAIN THOUGHT AT THIS POINT IS PREDOMINANTLY
SNOW IN PRICE AND EASTERN SAWYER COUNTIES, MIXED POTENTIALLY WITH
SOME RAIN, WHILE MODERATE TO LOCALLY HEAVY SNOW OCCURS FURTHER NORTH
AND WESTWARD IN NORTHWEST WISCONSIN. MID-RANGE GLOBAL ENSEMBLE
GUIDANCE REMAINS VARIED ON THE SCALE OF TENS-OF-MILES FOR THE
PLACEMENT OF THE HEAVIEST QPF, BUT HIGH ENOUGH FOR IT TO BE MAINLY
OUT OF EAST-CENTRAL MINNESOTA SO PINE COUNTY WAS DROPPED FROM THE
WINTER STORM WATCH. MOST GUIDANCE ALSO SHOWS THE MAXIMIZED
QPF/FORCING/COLDEST AIR MASS ALOFT ON TUESDAY MORNING TO EVENING
SOUTHEAST OF A LINE FROM WESTERN BURNETT TO NORTHERN BAYFIELD
COUNTIES. WHILE THIS SET UP COULD STILL BRING A FEW INCHES OF
PLOWABLE SNOWFALL TO SOUTHERN DOUGLAS COUNTY, THIS ZONE WAS ALSO
DROPPED FROM THE WATCH FOR THIS INCREASED CONFIDENCE ON HIGHLIGHTING
THE ZONES OF HIGHEST IMPACT INTO THE INTERIOR AND MORE EASTERN PARTS
OF NORTHWEST WISCONSIN. THERE REMAINS A 40-70% CHANCE OF RECEIVING
AT LEAST 4 INCHES OF SNOW FROM THIS EVENT IN THE WATCH AREA, WHILE
SAWYER, NORTHERN PRICE, ASHLAND AND IRON COUNTIES HAVE A 40-60%
CHANCE OF SEEING GREATER THAN 6" OF SNOW. FURTHER TIMING REFINEMENTS
ON QPF GUIDANCE ALLOWED US TO SHORTEN THE WATCH TO NOW END AT
MIDNIGHT TUESDAY NIGHT, INSTEAD OF PREVIOUSLY RUNNING UNTIL EARLY
WEDNESDAY MORNING. ALTHOUGH THE WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT THIS
MORNING, PENDING SIGNIFICANT FORECAST UPDATES TO SNOWFALL OR
EXPECTED IMPACTS, UPGRADES TO EITHER WINTER WEATHER ADVISORIES OR
WINTER STORM WARNINGS ARE POSSIBLE IN FUTURE ISSUANCES.
THE MOST IMPACTFUL SYSTEM SNOWFALL ENDS LATE TUESDAY NIGHT AS LAKE
EFFECT SNOWFALL BEGINS TO TAKE HOLD FOR SOUTH SHORE SNOW BELT
LOCATIONS. THE DEPARTED SURFACE CO LOW AND THE CANADIAN LOW EVER
SLOWLY SHIFTING EASTWARD IN NORTHERN ONTARIO ALLOWS FOR DECENT
COLD AIR ADVECTION INTO THE NORTHLAND FOR MUCH COOLER TEMPERATURES
STARTING WEDNESDAY. NORTH SHORE DOWNSLOPING WIND LOCATIONS COULD
SEE NORTHWESTERLY WIND GUSTS TO 40 MPH WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY
NIGHT. THESE CONDITIONS COULD ALSO LEAD TO BLOWING SNOW FOR THOSE
LAKE EFFECT SNOW BELTS ALONG THE SOUTH SHORE WHEN COMBINED WITH
THOSE SHOWERS. INSTABILITY SNOW SHOWERS FROM THE COLD CORE ALOFT
COULD ALSO RESULT IN CHANCES OF SNOW IN FAR NORTHERN MINNESOTA ON
WEDNESDAY, BUT SIGNIFICANT ACCUMULATIONS ARE NOT EXPECTED AT THIS
TIME FOR WEDNESDAY.
THE COLD AIR THAT WAS ADVECTED INTO THE REGION AND A SURFACE TO
UPPER-LEVEL STACKED RIDGE COULD RESULT IN SINGLE DIGIT LOW
TEMPERATURES WEDNESDAY NIGHT. GENERALLY DRIER CONDITIONS ON
THURSDAY AND FRIDAY MORNING GIVE WAY TO THE NEXT CHANCE OF SYSTEM
SNOW FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND INTO SATURDAY FROM A POSSIBLE WAVE
PASSING THROUGH SOUTHERN CANADA. OVERNIGHT LOW TEMPERATURES ARE
PERIODICALLY EXPECTED TO REMAIN COLD IN THE SINGLE DIGITS TO
NEAR-ZERO INTO NEXT WEEKEND.
AVIATION
(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z TUESDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 538 AM CST MON NOV 28 2022
MVFR CIGS ARE LIMITED MAINLY TO NORTHEASTERN MINNESOTA AS
SOUTHEASTERLY UPSLOPING FLOW WILL PERSIST TODAY FOR NORTH SHORE
TERMINALS. A LINE OF ELEVATED LOW-LEVELS WINDS WILL MIX DOWN THIS
MORNING AND CAUSE A PERIOD OF BREEZY SOUTHEASTERLY WIND GUSTS TO
25 KTS AT TERMINALS ACROSS THE NORTHLAND TODAY; LOW-LEVEL WIND
SHEAR CRITERIA CONDITIONS ARE NOT EXPECTED THOUGH. A BAND OF
MODERATE SNOWFALL IS EXPECTED TO FORM AROUND 15Z NEAR BRD THIS
MORNING AND SPREAD NORTHEASTWARD TO DLH/HIB/INL AROUND 17-19Z.
GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO SHOW THE CORE OF THIS SNOWFALL COULD PRODUCE
A 1-HR PERIOD OF VIS DOWN TO 1/2 MILES (CURRENTLY MOST LIKELY AT
INL), WITH VIS DOWN TO 1 MILE FURTHER SOUTHEASTWARD TO HIB. WHILE
LIGHT SNOW COULD OCCUR AT HYR IN THE EARLY AFTERNOON, IMPACTS ARE
NOT EXPECTED AND CHANCES WERE TOO LOW TO PLACE IN THAT TAF. THE
BAND LIFTS INTO ONTARIO LATE THIS AFTERNOON, BUT OFF-AND-ON SNOW
REMAINS LIKELY IN THE MN BORDERLANDS INTO THIS EVENING SO KEPT
RESTRICTIONS AT INL PAST 00Z TUE. HIGH-RES GUIDANCE SHOWS SHOWERS
DIMINISHING IN COVERAGE AT ALL TAF SITES BY 03Z TUE. WINDS SHIFT
SOUTHWESTERLY THIS EVENING, BUT REMAIN LESS THAN 5 KTS OUT AHEAD
OF THE NEXT ROUND OF SNOWFALL MOVING INTO HYR FIRST VERY LATE IN
THIS TAF PERIOD. PLAN FOR MUCH OF NORTHWESTERN WISCONSIN TO BE
UNDER MODERATE SNOWFALL (POTENTIALLY PRODUCING A WIDE SWATH OF
VERY LIMITED VIS) STARTING AFTER 12Z TUE AND INTO TUE EVENING.
MARINE
ISSUED AT 320 AM CST MON NOV 28 2022
A RIDGE OF HIGHER PRESSURE DEPARTS THE UPPER GREAT LAKES THIS
MORNING, WHICH HAS BEEN KEEPING GENERALLY NORTHERLY WINDS OVER
WESTERN LAKE SUPERIOR AROUND OR LESS THAN 15 KNOTS VERY EARLY THIS
MORNING. AN APPROACHING WARM FRONT FROM A LOW PRESSURE IN SOUTHERN
CANADA WILL SHIFT WINDS SOUTHEASTERLY BY MID-DAY TODAY. THOSE
WINDS BECOME GUSTY THIS AFTERNOON AROUND 25 KNOTS AND WILL BUILD
WAVES FROM SILVER BAY NORTHWARD ALONG THE NORTH SHORE INTO THIS
EVENING. THE CURRENT SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES COVER THESE HAZARDS
WELL SO NO HEADLINE CHANGES WERE MADE THIS MORNING. WINDS SHIFT
SOUTHWESTERLY AND GRADUALLY DECREASE EARLY MONDAY NIGHT OVER
WESTERN LAKE SUPERIOR AND WAVES RECEDE AROUND GRAND MARAIS
NORTHWARD LATE MONDAY NIGHT. A COLD FRONT PASSES OVER THE WESTERN
LAKE TUESDAY MID-DAY AND WILL PRODUCE ANOTHER WIND SHIFT TUESDAY
AFTERNOON TO NORTHWESTERLY. THESE NORTHWESTERLY WINDS QUICKLY
BECOME GUSTY INTO TUESDAY EVENING AND WILL LIKELY REQUIRE ANOTHER
HIGHER-END SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TUESDAY NIGHT. GUSTS COULD
APPROACH LOW-END GALE FORCE AROUND 35 KNOTS IN THE OUTER APOSTLE
ISLANDS BY EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
DLH 34 26 29 19 / 60 20 50 20
INL 33 17 25 17 / 70 30 0 30
BRD 36 23 26 17 / 30 10 20 10
HYR 36 26 31 19 / 10 30 90 40
ASX 38 28 33 22 / 20 30 90 40
DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
WI...WINTER STORM WATCH FROM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY EVENING
FOR WIZ002>004-006>009.
MN...NONE.
LS...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 2 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO MIDNIGHT CST
TONIGHT FOR LSZ121-142-146>148-150.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 1 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 3 AM CST
TUESDAY FOR LSZ140-141.
DISCUSSION...NLY
AVIATION...NLY
MARINE...NLY
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