692  
FXUS63 KDLH 082321  
AFDDLH  
 
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION  
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DULUTH MN  
621 PM CDT TUE JUL 8 2025  
   
KEY MESSAGES
 
 
- HIGH PRESSURE AND QUIET WEATHER MID WEEK WITH NEAR AVERAGE  
TEMPERATURES.  
 
- INCREASING HUMIDITY AND CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION IN THE SECOND  
HALF OF THE WEEK, MOST LIKELY FRIDAY. ISOLATED SEVERE STORMS AND  
AREAS OF HEAVY RAIN ARE POSSIBLE.  
 
- SOME AREAS OF SCATTERED SHOWERS AND WILDFIRE SMOKE COULD BE  
POSSIBLE THROUGH THE WEEKEND (UNCERTAINTY HIGH AT THIS POINT).  
 

 
   
DISCUSSION
 
 
ISSUED AT 149 PM CDT TUE JUL 8 2025  
 
A COUPLE WRAP AROUND SHOWERS ARE SLOWLY SPINNING OVER THE NORTHLAND  
THIS AFTERNOON, EXPECTED TO WIND DOWN INTO THE EVENING. AN ISOLATED  
SHOWER COULD TURN INTO A THUNDERSTORM. WE MAY SEE SOME DENSE FOG  
FORMATION OVERNIGHT INTO EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING.  
 
RIDGING AND HIGH PRESSURE SHOULD BE OVERHEAD FOR WEDNESDAY WITH A  
QUIET WEATHER DAY EXPECTED. HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE MID TO HIGH 70S  
EXPECTED WITH DEW POINTS IN THE 50S.  
 
THURSDAY, AN UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE BEGINS TO MOVE OUT OF THE CENTRAL  
PLAINS WITH AN ATTENDING UPPER LEVEL TROUGH SWEEPING OUT OF THE  
CANADIAN ROCKIES. THIS WILL LEAD TO SOUTHERLY FLOW PULLING UP  
MOISTURE FROM THE GULF AND THE THE CORN BELT WHICH WILL BRING OUR  
NEXT CHANCE FOR RAIN AND THUNDERSTORMS BEGINNING LATE THURSDAY  
AFTERNOON, BUT THE BETTER CHANCES DON'T ARRIVE UNTIL AFTER MIDNIGHT  
FRIDAY. CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION (50-80%) CONTINUE THROUGH THE DAY  
FRIDAY, HIGHEST IN THE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING HOURS.  
 
AN AXIS OF PWATS 1.5"+ RIDES UP INTO THE RED RIVER VALLEY THURSDAY  
AND THEN PUSHES EAST, BRINGING A BLOB OF MUCAPE 1500-3000 J/KG WHICH  
COULD WORK ALONGSIDE MESO TO SYNOPTIC SCALE FORCING TO SPUR ISOLATED  
SEVERE STORMS OVERNIGHT INTO FRIDAY. HOWEVER, BULK SHEAR IS LOW (10-  
25 KNOTS) AND MOST MODEL SOUNDINGS ARE CAPPED THROUGH MUCH OF FRIDAY  
WHICH IS A LIMITING FACTOR FOR SEVERE STORM RISK. PRIMARY SEVERE  
HAZARDS WOULD BE LARGE HAIL AND WIND. THERE COULD BE A LULL BETWEEN  
THUNDERSTORM THREATS, THE FIRST OVERNIGHT THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY  
MORNING, AND THEN THE SECOND FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING AFTER  
INSTABILITY HAS RETURNED AND BETTER FORCING ARRIVES IN THE FORM OF A  
COLD FRONT PUSHING WEST TO EAST.  
 
THIS SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO BE A FAIRLY SATURATED ONE, WITH PLENTY OF  
MOISTURE TO WORK WITH AND BOUNDARY PARALLEL FLOW. MODEL CORFIDI  
VECTORS ARE VERY SLOW AHEAD OF THE FRIDAY EVENING COLD FRONT. THIS  
MAY LEND ITSELF TO SLOW MOVING STORMS, TRAINING, AND HEAVY RAINFALL  
AMOUNTS, WHICH COULD PRODUCE AREAS OF ISOLATED FLASH FLOODING.  
 
THAT SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL ALSO BRING WARMER TEMPERATURES IN THE 80S  
THURSDAY, ALONG WITH DEW POINTS IN THE MID TO HIGH 60S, MAKING  
THURSDAY A RATHER STICKY DAY AHEAD OF THE RAIN.  
 
THE COLD FRONT FRIDAY EVENING SHOULD USHER ALONG WIDESPREAD  
PRECIPITATION OUT OF THE REGION AND TAKE DEWPOINTS DOWN A NOTCH.  
HOWEVER, DUE TO ITS POINT OF ORIGIN IT MAY ALSO HAVE THE POTENTIAL  
TO BRING SOME CANADIAN WILDFIRE SMOKE INTO THE REGION. SOME WRAP  
AROUND PRECIPITATION CHANCES LINGER INTO THE WEEKEND.  
 

 
   
AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z THURSDAY/
 
 
ISSUED AT 620 PM CDT TUE JUL 8 2025  
 
DIURNAL CUMULUS IS SPREAD ACROSS THE REGION WITH A FEW SHOWERS  
PERCOLATING THIS AFTERNOON. THIS ACTIVITY WILL QUICKLY DIMINISH AS  
THE SUN RETREATS FOR THE DAY. OVERNIGHT THERE IS AN INCONSISTENT  
SIGNAL FOR SOME FOG TO SPREAD ACROSS THE REGION AND IMPACT MOST OF  
THE TERMINALS. FOR NOW, WE HAVE A MENTION OF IT IN THE TAFS.  
SATELLITE DOES SHOW A FOG BANK ON LAKE SUPERIOR ROLLING INTO SAXON  
HARBOR, BUT CONFIDENCE IS LOW ON HOW MUCH THIS WILL PUSH INLAND  
GIVEN THE SPREAD OF SOLUTIONS. REGARDLESS, ALL THE MODELS THAT DO  
SHOW FOG OVERNIGHT HAVE GOOD AGREEMENT ON IT NOT STICKING AROUND  
LONG AFTER SUNRISE. ANOTHER VFR DAY TOMORROW AFTER FOG CLEARS IN THE  
MORNING.  
 

 
   
MARINE /FOR NEAR SHORE WATERS OF WESTERN LAKE SUPERIOR/
 
 
ISSUED AT 149 PM CDT TUE JUL 8 2025  
 
THE GENERAL PATTERN OVER WESTERN LAKE SUPERIOR CONTINUES TO BE THAT  
OF PERSISTENT NORTHEAST OR ONSHORE WINDS THROUGH FRIDAY. AT THE HEAD  
OF THE LAKE AND IN THE OUTER APOSTLE ISLANDS, THIS WILL LIKELY LEAD  
TO SOME PERSISTENT WAVE ACTION WITH A MIX OF WIND DRIVEN WAVES IN  
THE AFTERNOON/EVENING AND THEN TURNING INTO SWELL OVERNIGHT INTO THE  
MORNING HOURS. SOME GUSTS OF 15-20 KNOTS ARE POSSIBLE IN THE  
AFTERNOONS, ESPECIALLY AT THE HEAD OF THE LAKE. WITH HIGH PRESSURE  
OVERHEAD, WEDNESDAY WILL LIKELY SEE SOME OF THE QUIETEST WINDS OF  
THE WEEK. CHANCES FOR THUNDERSTORMS RETURN AT THE END OF THE WEEK,  
MOST LIKELY FRIDAY.  
 
FOR THE OPEN WATER DISCUSSION, REFER TO THE NWS MARQUETTE AREA  
FORECAST DISCUSSION AT WEATHER.GOV/MQT.  
 

 
   
DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
 
 
MN...NONE.  
WI...NONE.  
MARINE...NONE.  
 

 
 

 
 
DISCUSSION...LEVENS  
AVIATION...BRITT  
MARINE...LEVENS  
 
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