587
FXUS63 KDLH 170021
AFDDLH
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DULUTH MN
621 PM CST MON FEB 16 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- A POWERFUL AND MESSY WINTER SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO BRING HEAVY,
WET SNOW, FREEZING RAIN, MIXED PRECIPITATION, AND STRONG WINDS
TO THE NORTHLAND TUESDAY EVENING TO THURSDAY MORNING. BLIZZARD
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED ALONG THE NORTH SHORE.
- STORM AND GALE WATCHES ARE POSTED FOR WESTERN LAKE SUPERIOR
STARTING TUESDAY LATE AFTERNOON FROM VERY STRONG EASTERLY
WINDS GUSTING TO 55 KNOTS.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 329 PM CST MON FEB 16 2026
THE VERY WARM AND MAINLY DRY WEATHER PATTERN COMES TO AN END
TODAY WITH AN APPROACHING STORM ENTERING THE UPPER MIDWEST
TUESDAY AFTERNOON. PRECIPITATION WILL BEGIN TUESDAY LATE AFTERNOON
AS RAIN OR FREEZING RAIN IN CENTRAL MINNESOTA BEFORE EXPANDING
ACROSS THE REGION TUESDAY EVENING.
AS THE STORM INTENSIFIES TUESDAY NIGHT, A TRANSITION FROM RAIN
TO HEAVY, WET SNOW WILL OCCUR FROM NORTH TO SOUTH. THE MOST
SEVERE IMPACTS ARE EXPECTED ALONG THE NORTH SHORE WITH SNOW
TOTALS BETWEEN 10 AND 15 INCHES. THESE SNOWFALL AMOUNTS ARE
EXPECTED TO BE HEAVIEST LATE TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY
EARLY AFTERNOON WHEN SNOWFALL RATES OF 1-2 INCHES PER HOUR ARE
LIKELY AT TIMES, POSSIBLY EVEN 3 INCHES PER HOUR. THERE ARE ALSO
NOTABLE SIGNALS IN ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE THAT SOUTHERN LAKE COUNTY
INTO FAR SOUTHWEST COOK COUNTY HIGH TERRAIN AREAS COULD SEE 18
TO 24 INCHES OF SNOWFALL FROM LOCALIZED TERRAIN ENHANCEMENT.
COMBINED WITH EASTERLY WINDS GUSTING TO 60 MPH, BLIZZARD
CONDITIONS COULD MAKE TRAVEL NEARLY IMPOSSIBLE, PARTICULARLY
ALONG HIGHWAY 61. THESE VERY STRONG WINDS LASTING FROM 6 TO 12
HOURS IN TIME LATE TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY EARLY AFTERNOON
MAY BRING DOWNED POWER LINES...CREATING SPORADIC POWER
OUTAGES...AND TREE BRANCHES FOR THE NORTH SHORE.
FARTHER SOUTH, INCLUDING THE TWIN PORTS AND NORTHWEST WISCONSIN,
THE STORM WILL BRING A MESSY COMBINATION OF FREEZING RAIN AND
SNOW. ICE ACCUMULATIONS AROUND ONE TENTH OF AN INCH ARE FORECAST
TUESDAY EVENING AND OVERNIGHT BEFORE QUICKLY TAPERING OFF BY
EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING. THESE HIGHEST CHANCES FOR ANY ICE
ACCUMULATIONS ARE ALONG AND SOUTH OF THE IRON RANGE AND RIGHT
ALONG THE US HWY 2 CORRIDOR FOR TUESDAY LATE PM.
A COMBINATION OF WINTER STORM WARNINGS AND BLIZZARD WARNINGS
WERE ISSUED THIS AFTERNOON FOR BAYFIELD COUNTY TO THE PORTS AND
UP INTO THE ARROWHEAD, ALSO INCLUDING THE IRON RANGE. THE REST
OF THE COUNTIES THAT WERE PREVIOUSLY IN THE WINTER STORM WATCH
REMAIN SO FURTHER WESTWARD INTO NORTH-CENTRAL MN.
THE WARMER AIRMASS SOUTH OF MN 210 AND WI 77 HIGHLY LIMITS THE
FREEZING RAIN CHANCES AND EVEN LIGHT SNOWFALL ACCUMULATIONS IN
THOSE FAR SOUTHERN COUNTIES. WINTER WEATHER ADVISORIES MAY STILL
BE NEEDED THOUGH FOR SOME OF THESE COUNTIES THAT DO NOT
CURRENTLY HAVE WINTER STORM WATCHES, WINTER STORM WARNINGS OR
BLIZZARD WARNINGS IN EFFECT.
WHILE THE HEAVIEST SNOWFALL WILL TAPER OFF WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON
TO EVENING, LIGHT SNOW CONTINUES INTO THURSDAY MORNING. THE
NEXT SYSTEM TO MONITOR IS FOR NORTHWEST WISCONSIN THURSDAY NIGHT
INTO FRIDAY WHEN A FEW INCHES OF ADDITIONAL SNOWFALL MAY OCCUR
AS THE LOW PRESSURE CENTER MOVES WELL SOUTHEAST OF THE REGION.
MORE SEASONABLE, MUCH COOLER COMPARED TO THE LAST VERY WARM
DAYS, TEMPERATURES SET UP FOR THURSDAY DAYTIME ONWARD.
AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z WEDNESDAY/
ISSUED AT 550 PM CST MON FEB 16 2026
VFR CONDITIONS PREVAIL EARLY THIS EVENING AND WILL CONTINUE INTO
TONIGHT. MVFR TO IFR FOG IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP DURING THE EARLY
MORNING HOURS AT DLH, HIB AND HYR AND PERSIST PAST SUNRISE
THROUGH MID TO LATE MORNING. FOG AT DLH MAY LAST LONGER THAN
FORECAST WITH WINDS OFF LAKE SUPERIOR. VFR CONDITIONS THEN
RETURN WITH SLOWLY LOWERING CEILINGS THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF
THE PERIOD. WINDS WILL ALSO PICK UP WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON WITH
GUSTS TO 20 TO 30 KNOTS FROM THE EAST.
MARINE /FOR NEARSHORE WATERS OF WESTERN LAKE SUPERIOR/
ISSUED AT 219 PM CST MON FEB 16 2026
A DANGEROUS PERIOD IS AHEAD FOR WESTERN LAKE SUPERIOR. A DENSE
FOG ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT THIS EVENING THROUGH LATE MORNING
THURSDAY FOR PERIODIC DENSE FOG FORECAST ALONG THE SOUTH SHORE
AND TWIN PORTS. A STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR THE NORTH SHORE,
WHERE NORTHEAST WINDS WILL GUST TO 55 KNOTS TUESDAY EVENING AND
WEDNESDAY. A GALE WATCH COVERS THE SOUTH SHORE FOR GUSTS UP TO
45 KNOTS. WAVES WILL BUILD TO 7-10 FEET, WITH OCCASIONAL HEIGHTS
UP TO 14 FEET POSSIBLE NEAR THE TWIN PORTS.
FOR THE OPEN WATER DISCUSSION, REFER TO THE NWS MARQUETTE AREA
FORECAST DISCUSSION AT WEATHER.GOV/MQT.
DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MN...BLIZZARD WARNING FROM 9 PM TUESDAY TO NOON CST THURSDAY FOR
MNZ020-021.
WINTER STORM WATCH FROM TUESDAY EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY
MORNING FOR MNZ010-011-018-025-026-035.
WINTER STORM WARNING FROM 9 PM TUESDAY TO NOON CST THURSDAY
FOR MNZ012.
WINTER STORM WARNING FROM 6 PM TUESDAY TO NOON CST THURSDAY
FOR MNZ019-037.
WI...WINTER STORM WARNING FROM 6 PM TUESDAY TO NOON CST THURSDAY
FOR WIZ001-002.
MARINE...STORM WATCH FROM TUESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH WEDNESDAY EVENING
FOR LSZ140>143.
BLIZZARD WARNING FROM 9 PM TUESDAY TO NOON CST THURSDAY FOR
LSZ142.
DENSE FOG ADVISORY FROM 10 PM THIS EVENING TO 10 AM CST
TUESDAY FOR LSZ144>146-148-150.
GALE WATCH FROM TUESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON
FOR LSZ144>146-148-150.
DISCUSSION...NLY
AVIATION...BJH
MARINE...NLY
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