260
FXUS63 KDLH 210545
AFDDLH
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DULUTH MN
1145 PM CST FRI FEB 20 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- LIGHT SNOWFALL IS EXPECTED TODAY INTO SATURDAY, MAINLY IN THE
TIP OF THE ARROWHEAD AND IN NORTHERN IRON COUNTY, WITH LIGHT
LAKE EFFECT LINGERING INTO SUNDAY NIGHT FOR PORTIONS OF THE
SOUTH SHORE SNOWBELT. ADDITIONAL ACCUMULATIONS ARE EXPECTED TO
BE LESS THAN 3 INCHES.
- NEAR TO SLIGHTLY BELOW AVERAGE TEMPERATURES THIS WEEKEND INTO
MONDAY. NEAR-ZERO TO SUB-ZERO WIND CHILLS ARE EXPECTED EACH
NIGHT, COLDEST SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY MORNING.
- A CLIPPER SYSTEM BRINGS ACCUMULATING SNOW CHANCES MONDAY
NIGHT INTO TUESDAY, WITH THE BEST POTENTIAL ALONG AND NORTH OF
US-2.
- AN ACTIVE WEATHER PATTERN CONTINUES MID-NEXT WEEK INTO NEXT
WEEKEND, WITH SEVERAL ADDITIONAL SNOW CHANCES FOR PORTIONS OF
THE NORTHLAND.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 228 PM CST FRI FEB 20 2026
REST OF TODAY - MONDAY:
CURRENT OBSERVATIONS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICT A VERTICALLY
STACKED LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM CURRENTLY OVER THE CENTRAL GREAT
LAKES WITH AN INVERTED TROUGH EXTENDING INTO NORTHWEST ONTARIO
AND MANITOBA. THIS PATTERN HAS KEPT MOST OF THE SNOWFALL EAST OF
THE NORTHLAND, THOUGH NORTH-CENTRAL WISCONSIN AND THE TIP OF THE
ARROWHEAD HAVE BEEN SEEING LIGHT SNOW THROUGHOUT THE DAY AND SEE
IT CONTINUE INTO TONIGHT BEFORE THE BAND OF SNOW MOVES JUST TO
THE EAST.
ADDITIONALLY, PARTLY TO MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES HAVE SET UP ACROSS
THE NORTHLAND THIS AFTERNOON. WITH THE LOWER CLOUD LAYER NESTLED
IN THE DENDRITIC GROWTH ZONE, THERE HAS BEEN PERIODIC REPORTS OF
FLURRIES/LIGHT SNOW IN NORTH-CENTRAL AND NORTHEAST MINNESOTA.
EXPECT THESE FLURRY CHANCES TO PERSIST THROUGH AT LEAST EARLY
EVENING AND POSSIBLY INTO TONIGHT. A LIGHT DUSTING TO NO
ADDITIONAL ACCUMULATIONS EXPECTED WITH THESE FLURRIES.
THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING EXPECT ADDITIONAL SNOWFALL
ACCUMULATIONS IN THE TIP OF THE ARROWHEAD AND NORTHERN IRON
COUNTY TO AMOUNT TO A TRACE TO 2" OR SO. SOME WEAK SHORTWAVE
TROUGH ENERGY WILL ALSO BE MOVING THROUGH THE NORTHLAND ON
SATURDAY, SO CAN'T RULE OUT ADDITIONAL LIGHT SNOW/FLURRIES FOR
THE ARROWHEAD AND NORTHWEST WISCONSIN ON SATURDAY. SATURDAY SNOW
ACCUMULATIONS SHOULD BE A TRACE TO LESS THAN AN INCH FOR THOSE
LOCATIONS.
NORTHWEST FLOW WILL ALSO BRING IN COOLER TEMPERATURES FOR THIS
WEEKEND INTO MONDAY, WITH HIGHS IN THE TEENS TO LOW/MID 20S AND
SINGLE DIGIT LOWS FOR MOST, THOUGH SINGLE DIGITS BELOW ZERO LOWS
ARE EXPECTED IN NORTHEAST MINNESOTA MONDAY MORNING. WIND CHILLS
EACH NIGHT/MORNING SHOULD BOTTOM OUT IN THE SINGLE DIGITS BELOW
ZERO FOR MOST LOCATIONS, THOUGH SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY MORNING
WIND CHILLS IN THE SINGLE DIGITS TO TEENS BELOW ZERO ARE
EXPECTED.
THESE COOLER TEMPERATURES AND NORTHWEST WINDS WILL ALSO ALLOW
LIGHT LAKE-EFFECT SNOW TO START UP AGAIN SATURDAY PM INTO SUNDAY
NIGHT, THOUGH FAIRLY SHALLOW ATMOSPHERIC MOISTURE SHOULD KEEP
SNOWFALL RATES ON THE LIGHTER SIDE, WITH SNOWFALL RATES OF A
TRACE TO AROUND 1 INCH EVERY 6 HOURS FOR THE SOUTH SHORE
SNOWBELT, HIGHEST IN NORTHERN IRON COUNTY. GIVEN THE SLOWER RATE
OF EXPECTED ACCUMULATION, A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY HAS NOT
BEEN ISSUED.
LATE MONDAY - TUESDAY:
A POTENT, QUICK-MOVING ALBERTA CLIPPER IS POISED TO IMPACT THE
NORTHLAND MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY. WHILE THIS SYSTEM WILL
HAVE MOISTURE ORIGINS FROM AN ATMOSPHERIC RIVER ON THE PACIFIC
COAST, PWAT/MOISTURE LEVELS DON'T APPEAR TO BE MORE THAN AVERAGE
FOR LATE JULY (PWATS AROUND 0.2-0.35"). GLOBAL ENSEMBLE LOW
TRACKS STILL SHOW SOME TIMING AND NORTH-SOUTH TRACK DIFFERENCES
FOR CENTRAL OR NORTHERN MINNESOTA INTO WISCONSIN MONDAY NIGHT
THROUGH TUESDAY THAT STILL GIVE A FAIRLY BROAD RANGE IN
POTENTIAL SNOW TOTALS, BUT POTENTIAL IS FAIRLY GOOD (50-90%) IN
MOST OF THE NORTHLAND SEEING AT LEAST SOME LIGHT SNOWFALL
DURING THIS TIMEFRAME. THE BEST POTENTIAL FOR MODERATE
ACCUMULATING SNOWFALL IS ALONG AND NORTH OF US HWY 2, WHERE
24-HOUR SNOWFALL PROBABILITIES OF 2" OR MORE OF SNOW ARE 30-60%,
HIGHEST ALONG THE NORTH SHORE WHERE SOUTHEAST TO SOUTHERLY
SURFACE WINDS SHOULD AID IN SOME LAKE AND TERRAIN ENHANCEMENT.
PROBABILITIES FOR HIGHER AMOUNTS ARE LOWER BUT NOT ZERO, WITH
PROBABILITIES OF 6" OR MORE AT 15-30% FOR THE NORTH SHORE, 5-15%
NORTH OF US HWY 2, AND 5% OR LESS ALONG/SOUTH OF US HWY 2. IF
THESE SNOWFALL TRENDS HOLD, FAR NORTH-CENTRAL MINNESOTA, THE
ARROWHEAD, AND PARTS OF THE SOUTH SHORE MAY NEED A WINTER
WEATHER ADVISORY MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY.
WEDNESDAY - NEXT WEEKEND:
AN ACTIVE WEATHER PATTERN CONTINUES FOR MID-NEXT WEEK INTO NEXT
WEEKEND, WITH SEVERAL ADDITIONAL CHANCES FOR SNOW AS CLIPPER
SYSTEMS PERIODICALLY MOVE THROUGH THE UPPER MIDWEST. THE FIRST
SYSTEM WOULD BE QUICK ON THE HEELS OF THE EARLY WEEK CLIPPER,
GENERALLY MOVING THROUGH THE UPPER MIDWEST IN THE WEDNESDAY TO
EARLY THURSDAY TIMEFRAME. THERE IS MORE UNCERTAINTY REGARDING
THE TIMING AND TRACK OF THIS SYSTEM, WITH THE FAVORED LOW
PRESSURE TRACK MAINLY SOUTH OF THE NORTHLAND, THOUGH OUR
SOUTHERN CWA STANDS THE BEST CHANCE TO GET ACCUMULATING SNOWFALL
(20-30% CHANCE). GLOBAL MODELS SHOW ADDITIONAL TROUGHS/CLIPPERS
MOVING THROUGH THE UPPER MIDWEST LATE NEXT WEEK INTO NEXT
WEEKEND, BUT CONFIDENCE IS LOW REGARDING EXACT TIMING AND
PRECIPITATION POTENTIAL/AMOUNTS WITH THOSE SYSTEMS AT THIS TIME.
HOWEVER, THERE IS MEDIUM CONFIDENCE IN A WARMING TREND TO ABOVE
NORMAL TEMPERATURES IN THE NORTHLAND DURING THE LATTER HALF OF
NEXT WEEK.
AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY/
ISSUED AT 1145 PM CST FRI FEB 20 2026
A DECK OF MVFR STRATUS PERSISTS ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA LATE THIS
EVENING, IMPACTING ALL TAF SITES EXCLUDING KBRD. THIS MVFR STRATUS
DECK IS ALSO SITTING RIGHT WITHIN THE DENDRITIC GROWTH ZONE,
RESULTING IN WIDESPREAD FLURRIES AND ISOLATED POCKETS OF MVFR TO IFR
VISIBILITY. SINCE THESE AREAS OF REDUCED VISIBILITY ARE FAIRLY
SPORADIC, OPTED TO KEEP VISIBILITY VFR GIVEN THE OVERALL LIGHT
SNOWFALL RATES. THIS STRATUS DECK IS ANTICIPATED TO LINGER THROUGH
THE PERIOD, WITH A BRIEF PERIOD OF SCATTERING IN KDLH SATURDAY
AFTERNOON AS NORTHWEST WINDS CLEAR SKIES IN THE LEE OF THE NORTH
SHORE TERRAIN RIDGE.
MARINE /FOR NEARSHORE WATERS OF WESTERN LAKE SUPERIOR/
ISSUED AT 228 PM CST FRI FEB 20 2026
LOW PRESSURE MOVING INTO THE LOWER GREAT LAKES WILL KEEP A
PRESSURE GRADIENT GOING ACROSS THE NORTH SHORE INTO THIS
EVENING. NORTH TO NORTHWESTERLY WINDS WILL BE GUSTING UNDER 15
KNOTS FOR MOST NEARSHORE ZONES TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT, WITH THE
EXCEPTION OF GUSTS TO AROUND 25 KT FOR TACONITE HARBOR TO GRAND
PORTAGE INTO THIS EVENING, WHERE A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IS IN
EFFECT. WINDS REMAIN NORTHWEST TO NORTHERLY THIS WEEKEND,
WEAKENING BELOW 20 KT FOR SATURDAY BEFORE STRENGTHENING ONCE
AGAIN SATURDAY EVENING THROUGH EARLY MONDAY MORNING. ADDITIONAL
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES MAY BE NEEDED FOR SATURDAY EVENING INTO
MONDAY MORNING FOR MUCH OF THE WESTERN LAKE SUPERIOR NEARSHORE
WATERS.
FOR THE OPEN WATER DISCUSSION, REFER TO THE NWS MARQUETTE AREA
FORECAST DISCUSSION AT WEATHER.GOV/MQT.
DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MN...NONE.
WI...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
DISCUSSION...ROTHSTEIN
AVIATION...UNRUH
MARINE...ROTHSTEIN
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