385
FXUS63 KDLH 101137
AFDDLH
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DULUTH MN
637 AM CDT TUE MAR 10 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- CURRENT BAND OF SNOWFALL STRETCHING FROM THE SOUTH SHORE TO
BRAINERD LAKES IS BRINGING A DUSTING TO 2 INCHES OF SNOW, AND
SHOULD BE EXITING THE AREA SOON AFTER SUNRISE.
- THE NEXT ROUND OF SNOW ARRIVES TONIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY BRINGING
MORE ACCUMULATIONS TO THE I-35 CORRIDOR, TWIN PORTS, NORTH
SHORE, AND EAST ACROSS NW WI. ANOTHER 2-5"+ IS POSSIBLE, AND
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORIES HAVE BEEN ISSUED FOR PORTIONS OF NW
WISCONSIN.
- A STRONG CLIPPER SYSTEM ARRIVES THURSDAY AFTERNOON INTO
FRIDAY AND COULD BRING A QUICK PUNCH OF SNOW FROM NORTHWEST TO
SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE NORTHLAND, WITH SOME LOCALLY HIGHER
AMOUNTS DUE TO LAKE ENHANCEMENT ALONG THE NORTH SHORE.
- A DIURNAL FREEZE/THAW WILL LIKELY OCCUR THROUGH LATE WEEK AND
THEN MUCH OF THE AREA MAY FALL BELOW FREEZING FOR EARLY NEXT
WEEK.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 324 AM CDT TUE MAR 10 2026
CURRENTLY: WEAK RIPPLES IN ZONAL FLOW ALOFT AND MID LEVEL
FRONTOGENESIS ARE SUSTAINING A LIGHT TO MODERATE SNOW BAND
STRETCHING ALONG THE SOUTH SHORE WESTWARD THROUGH THE BRAINERD
LAKES REGION. THIS BAND WILL CONTINUE TO SLOWLY SHIFT SOUTHWARD
THIS MORNING. A QUICK 1-3" IS POSSIBLE UNDER THE HEAVIER PARTS
OF THE SNOW BAND. CURRENT WINDS ARE GENERALLY OUT OF THE NORTH
TO NORTH NORTHEAST, BLOWING ONTO THE SOUTH SHORE, WHICH COULD
RESULT IN SOME ENHANCEMENT OVER THE NEXT COUPLE HOURS ACROSS
DOUGLAS, BAYFIELD, AND ASHLAND COUNTIES. THIS BAND SHOULD BE
SOUTH AND EAST OF THE AREA BY 7-8AM. HOWEVER, LOW STRATUS WILL
LIKELY LINGER THROUGH THE DAY, AND CANNOT RULE OUT SOME LIGHT
FLURRIES OR DRIZZLE. WITH NORTHEASTERLY WINDS OFF THE LAKE INTO
THE TWIN PORTS, COULD SEE LIGHT SNOW LINGER THROUGH MID MORNING
FOR LOCATIONS AT THE HEAD OF THE LAKE.
THIS AFTERNOON-WEDNESDAY: A UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL AMPLIFY TO OUR
WEST TODAY AND PUSH ACROSS THE PLAINS. IN RESPONSE, A WEAK SURFACE
LOW WILL STRENGTHEN AND PUSH ACROSS NORTHERN IL. ON THE NORTH SIDE
OF THIS SYSTEM, A SECOND BAND OF SNOW WILL PUSH BACK INTO NORTHWEST
WI THIS AFTERNOON, WITH ADDITIONAL SNOWFALL SPREADING INTO LOCATIONS
SOUTH OF US-2 TONIGHT. HIGHEST SNOWFALL AMOUNTS (2-5INCHES) REMAIN
OVER PARTS OF NW WISCONSIN, FROM ASHLAND AND SAWYER COUNTIES EASTWARD.
A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED FOR THESE COUNTIES FROM
THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH MIDDAY WEDNESDAY. LIGHTER ACCUMULATIONS
ARE EXPECTED UP TO US-2 AND ALONG PORTIONS OF THE NORTH SHORE UP
TO TOFTE. WITH PERSISTENT NORTHEAST WINDS, THERE COULD BE ENHANCED
SNOWFALL ALONG THE NORTH SHORE AND OVER THE TWIN PORTS, WHICH
COULD LEAD TO HIGHER ACCUMULATIONS THAN CURRENTLY EXPECTED. THIS
SYSTEM PULLS AWAY FROM THE AREA WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON, LEADING TO
ABOUT 24 HOURS OF QUIET CONDITIONS ACROSS THE NORTHLAND.
THURSDAY-FRIDAY: MOST GLOBAL MODELS ARE IN AGREEMENT THAT A POWERFUL
CLIPPER WILL MOVE INTO THE MIDWEST/GREAT LAKES REGION. LATEST MODEL
RUNS HAVE TRENDED TOWARD A SOLUTION THAT BRINGS THIS SYSTEM ACROSS
THE DAKOTAS AND INTO NORTHWEST/CENTRAL WI, LEAVING MOST OF THE
NORTHLAND ON THE NORTH/NORTHEAST SIDE OF THE LOW. THIS WOULD
ENHANCE SNOWFALL ON THE NORTH SHORE DUE TO STRONG SOUTHEASTERLY
WINDS ON THE NORTH SIDE OF THE STRENGTHENING SURFACE LOW. CURRENT
FORECAST CALLS FOR WIDESPREAD 1-3 INCHES AREAWIDE, 3-6 INCHES
OVER THE ARROWHEAD AND THE SNOWBELT OF NW WI, AND 6+ INCHES
ALONG PORTIONS OF THE NORTH SHORE. IF FORECAST TRENDS CONTINUE,
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORIES AND A WINTER STORM WARNING ALONG THE
NORTH SHORE WILL BE NEEDED.
WEEKEND: THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR A STRONG COLORADO LOW SYSTEM
TO BE MOVING THROUGH THE PLAINS AND INTO THE GREAT LAKES SATURDAY
INTO SUNDAY. LATEST GUIDANCE HAS DIVERGED IN THE TRACK OF THIS
LOW AND WHERE IT STRENGTHENS AS IT PUSHES ACROSS THE MISSISSIPPI
RIVER VALLEY. IMPLICATIONS OF A TRACK CHANGE WOULD BE A CHANGE
FROM SNOW TO A WINTRY MIX TO POSSIBLY NO PRECIPITATION AT ALL.
IF A MORE NORTHERN TRACK OCCURS, PORTIONS OF MN/WI COULD BE IN
THE OCCLUDED QUADRANT, WITH HEAVY ACCUMULATING SNOW AND STRONG
WINDS POSSIBLE.
AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z WEDNESDAY/
ISSUED AT 631 AM CDT TUE MAR 10 2026
A BAND OF SNOWFALL STRETCHES ACROSS NORTHWEST WI THIS MORNING,
WITH LIGHT SNOWFALL FALLING AT HYR TO START THE FORECAST PERIOD.
EXPECT REDUCTIONS IN VIS TO 1-2SM WITHIN THIS BAND.
ELSEWHERE, MVFR CIGS PERSIST AT DLH, WITH VFR CIGS ARE OTHER
FORECAST TERMINALS. WITH STRONG ONSHORE NORTHEAST TO EAST
WINDS, WITH SOME GUSTS TO 24KTS, EXPECT MVFR CIGS TO REMAIN AT
DLH THROUGH THE DAY, POTENTIALLY FALLING BELOW 1KFT THIS
AFTERNOON. THIS ONSHORE FLOW MIGHT ALSO RESULT IN SNOW SHOWERS
NEAR DLH THIS AFTERNOON, BUT CURRENT CHANCES ARE TOO LOW TO
INCLUDE.
FOR OTHER TERMINALS, WINDS WILL BE FROM THE EAST TO NORTHEAST
AT 5-10KTS.
THIS EVENING, ANOTHER ROUND OF SNOW WILL MOVE INTO NORTHWEST
WI, AND WILL BRING SNOW BACK INTO HYR.
MARINE /FOR NEARSHORE WATERS OF WESTERN LAKE SUPERIOR/
ISSUED AT 324 AM CDT TUE MAR 10 2026
NORTHEAST WINDS BUILD THROUGH THE DAY WITH SOME GUSTS NEAR 25
KNOTS POSSIBLE FOR THE HEAD OF THE LAKE AND APOSTLE ISLANDS. A
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY HAS BEEN ISSUED. WINDS REMAIN NORTHEAST
THROUGH WEDNESDAY BUT SHOULD TAPER IN STRENGTH. FAIRLY CALM
CONDITIONS EXPECTED THURSDAY BEFORE A ROUND OF STRONGER EASTERLY
WINDS PICK UP THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES
ARE LIKELY FOR FRIDAY AND GALE WARNINGS MAY BE NEEDED.
FOR THE OPEN WATER DISCUSSION, REFER TO THE NWS MARQUETTE AREA
FORECAST DISCUSSION AT WEATHER.GOV/MQT.
DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MN...NONE.
WI...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 4 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 1 PM CDT
WEDNESDAY FOR WIZ002>004-008-009.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 10 AM THIS MORNING TO 10 PM CDT THIS
EVENING FOR LSZ143>148-150.
DISCUSSION...HA
AVIATION...HA
MARINE...HA
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.
Main Text Page