571
FXUS63 KDLH 221120
AFDDLH
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DULUTH MN
620 AM CDT SUN MAR 22 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- MUCH COOLER TODAY WITH HIGHS IN THE 30S AND 40S WITH A FEW
SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS IN THE MORNING HOURS.
- AN ACTIVE PATTERN CONTINUES THIS WEEK WITH OSCILLATING WARM
AND COOL TEMPERATURES, WITH LIGHT LIQUID AND FROZEN
PRECIPITATION CHANCES SPRINKLED THROUGH THE FORECAST. MAYBE
SOMETHING MORE ORGANIZED WED/THU NEXT WEEK.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 310 AM CDT SUN MAR 22 2026
CURRENT CONDITIONS:
A COLD FRONT HAS PUSHED OUT OF THE REGION AS OF THIS MORNING WITH
NORTHERLY WINDS STREAMING IN ONCE AGAIN. THE TRAILING PRECIPITATION
ASSOCIATED WITH A RIBBON OF 700MB FGEN HAS LARGELY EXITED THE
REGION. HOWEVER, RADAR AND SURFACE OBSERVATIONS REVEAL SOME
LINGERING HCRS OVER NORTH CENTRAL MN LIKELY DEVELOPING BELOW THE
STRATUS DECK AS COLD AIR ADVECTION LEADS TO A SHALLOW LAYER OF
INSTABILITY. THIS COLD AIR ALSO LOOKS TO BE PRODUCING SOME
ANTHROPOGENIC SNOW OFF OFF THE IRON RANGE.
TODAY:
THE HCRS THAT DEVELOP LAST NIGHT WILL BE TAPERING OFF IN THE MORNING
BUT WE ARE STILL KEEPING AN EYE ON LAKE SUPERIOR FOR SOME POTENTIAL
LAKE CONVERGENCE BANDS TO DEVELOP. WITH THE COLDER AIR TEMPERATURES
FLOWING ACROSS THE LAKE ONCE AGAIN SOME LAKE EFFECT SHOWERS WILL BE
POSSIBLE ALONG THE SOUTH SHORE. WIND DIRECTION STILL SEEMS TO
BE A CONTESTED ISSUE AMONG THE GUIDANCE WITH MODELS VARYING BY
30 TO 50 DEGREES. CAMS HAVE CERTAINLY BACKED OFF THEIR INITIAL
AGGRESSIVE SIGNAL FOR PRECIPITATION IN THE TWIN PORTS AND THE
SOUTH SHORE. WE WILL MAINTAIN AT LEAST SOME FLURRIES THROUGH THE
MORNING HOURS. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE NORTHWEST IN
THE AFTERNOON HELPING TO CLEAR THE SKIES OUT.
EARLY NEXT WEEK:
MONDAY, HIGH PRESSURE WILL SHUFFLE TO THE EAST THROUGH THE DAY WITH
RETURN FLOW OUT OF THE SOUTH HELPING TO WARM TEMPERATURES BACK INTO
THE UPPER 40S. OVERNIGHT, A LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE ACROSS
CENTRAL MANITOBA INTO ONTARIO WITH ITS ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT
DIPPING DOWN THROUGH THE NORTHLAND. WE WILL STILL HAVE A WARM
NOSE IN THE LOWER LEVEL TO CONTEND WITH SO AN AREA OF MIXED
PRECIPITATION WILL LIKELY BE AT PLAY. SNOW WILL BE FAVORED
FARTHER NORTH AND RAIN FARTHER SOUTH. THE FRONT IS NOT EXPECTED
TO STALL WITH PRECIPITATION EXITING TUESDAY MORNING. TOTAL
ACCUMULATIONS AT THIS TIME ARE MINIMAL FOR BOTH RAIN AND SNOW.
MIDWEEK OUTLOOK:
A WARM FRONT LOOKS TO ADVANCE INTO THE UPPER MIDWEST SETTING UP A
BAROCLINIC ZONE OVER THE REGION LEADING TO CONTINUED PRECIPITATION
CHANCES. THE BEST CHANCES LOOK TO ARRIVE LATE WEDNESDAY INTO
THURSDAY AS AN UPPER LEVEL JET STRENGTHENS AND MOVES ACROSS THE
CANADIAN PRAIRIES. THIS EXTRA DIVERGENCE ALOFT WILL HELP PROMOTE THE
DEEPENING OF A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM AT THE SURFACE. PLACEMENT OF
THESE SYNOPTIC FEATURES ARE STILL HIGHLY CONTESTED AMONG THE
ENSEMBLES SO THE OVERALL IMPACT OF THIS SYSTEM AT THIS TIME REMAINS
UNCERTAIN.
AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z MONDAY/
ISSUED AT 619 AM CDT SUN MAR 22 2026
LARGELY MVFR/IFR CEILINGS STILL LINGER ACROSS THE NORTHLAND AS
NORTHERLY WINDS HAVE SETTLED IN OVER THE REGION. RADAR SHOWS VERY
MINIMAL ACTIVITY WITH A FEW STREAMERS PRESENT OVER NW WI. HIGH RES
GUIDANCE IS NO LONGER DETECTING A LAKE EFFECT CONVERGENT BAND FOR
THE MORNING HOURS FOR THE TWIN PORTS. BUT WITH THE COLD AIR AND
WINDS TURNING NORTHEASTERLY THE CHANCE STILL REMAINS FOR THE DLH TO
SEE SOME SNOW SHOWERS, HAVE LEFT IT OUT OF THE TAF DUE TO LOW
CONFIDENCE THOUGH. CEILINGS WILL BE SLOW TO IMPROVE BUT HIGH
PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO BUILD IN THIS AFTERNOON LEADING TO
WIDESPREAD VFR CONDITIONS.
MARINE /FOR NEARSHORE WATERS OF WESTERN LAKE SUPERIOR/
ISSUED AT 310 AM CDT SUN MAR 22 2026
GUSTY NORTHEAST WINDS WILL START TO TAPER OFF LATER THIS MORNING BUT
WAVE HEIGHT WILL BE SLOW TO SUBSIDE ON THE SOUTH SHORE. SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORIES FROM SAND ISLAND OVER TO SAXON HARBOR HAVE BEEN EXTENDED
THROUGH 7PM. ONCE THESE CONDITIONS SUBSIDE THE LAKE SHOULD BE QUIET
UNTIL EARLY WEDNESDAY WHEN NORTHEASTERLY FLOW RAMPS UP ONCE
AGAIN.
FOR THE OPEN WATER DISCUSSION, REFER TO THE NWS MARQUETTE AREA
FORECAST DISCUSSION AT WEATHER.GOV/MQT.
DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MN...NONE.
WI...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM CDT THIS MORNING FOR
LSZ140>142.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR LSZ147-
148-150.
DISCUSSION...BRITT
AVIATION...BRITT
MARINE...BRITT
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