741  
FXUS63 KDLH 210758  
AFDDLH  
 
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION  
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DULUTH MN  
258 AM CDT THU OCT 21 2021  
   
DISCUSSION
 
(TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)  
ISSUED AT 258 AM CDT THU OCT 21 2021  
 
MORNING RAIN ENDING ACROSS NORTHWEST WISCONSIN WITH CLEARING SKIES  
TODAY, COOLER TEMPERATURES TODAY THROUGH THE WEEKEND WITH A  
GRADUAL MODERATION NEXT WEEK HIGHLIGHT THE FORECAST.  
 
DEFORMATION ZONE RAINFALL WILL CONTINUE ACROSS NORTHWEST  
WISCONSIN THIS MORNING TO THE NORTH OF LOW PRESSURE ACROSS  
SOUTHERN WISCONSIN. THIS PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED TO EXIT IRON  
AND PRICE COUNTIES BY 13-14Z. LOW TO MID LEVEL CLOUD COVER WILL  
ALSO CLEAR WITHIN A SIMILAR TIMEFRAME WITH MOSTLY SUNNY  
CONDITIONS THE REMAINDER OF THE DAY ACROSS THE NORTHLAND AS WEAK  
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS ACROSS THE AREA INTO TONIGHT. GIVEN A  
COOL START TO THE EVENING WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE 40S  
TODAY, RADIATIONAL COOLING SHOULD ALLOW FOR A QUICK DROP IN  
TEMPERATURES AFTER SUNSET WITH LIGHT WINDS. THUS, AM EXPECTING  
WIDESPREAD LOWS IN THE 20S FRIDAY MORNING AWAY FROM LAKE SUPERIOR.  
THERE ARE SOME HINTS OF A FEW CLOUD DECKS ON THE FRINGES OF  
CYCLONIC FLOW ALOFT THAT MAY BE OVER THE REGION TONIGHT, SO KEPT  
THE LOW TEMPERATURE FORECAST FROM THE VERY BOTTOM OF THE  
DISTRIBUTION. THAT SAID, A FEW LOWS IN THE TEENS ARE NOT OUT OF  
THE QUESTION ACROSS THE IRON RANGE IF THEY REMAIN AWAY FROM ANY  
CLOUD COVER.  
 
COOL TEMPERATURES WITH HIGHS IN THE 40S AND SUB-FREEZING LOWS  
CONTINUE INTO THE WEEKEND UNDER CYCLONIC FLOW ALOFT AS THE UPPER  
LEVEL LOW OVER HUDSON BAY SLOWLY PROPAGATES SOUTH TOWARDS THE  
GREAT LAKES. SOME SOUTH SHORE LAKE EFFECT SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE  
FRIDAY AFTERNOON INTO SATURDAY MORNING AS LOW LEVEL MOISTURE  
INCREASES VIA NORTHWEST WINDS WITH THE APPROACH OF THE LOW AND  
FAVORABLE LAKE SURFACE AND AIR TEMPERATURE DIFFERENTIALS. FLOW  
ACROSS THE LAKE WILL BE MODEST, THUS, EXPECTING THE OVERALL  
PRECIPITATION ACTIVITY TO BE LIGHT. ANY LAKE EFFECT ACTIVITY IS  
EXPECTED TO BE RAIN FRIDAY AFTERNOON, WITH A CHANGEOVER TO SNOW  
FRIDAY NIGHT. MINIMAL ACCUMULATIONS AT BEST ARE EXPECTED.  
 
LOOKING TOWARDS NEXT WEEK, THE 00 UTC GLOBAL SUITE FAVORS UPPER  
LEVEL RIDGING BUILDING ACROSS THE REGION MONDAY AND TUESDAY, WITH  
A RELATIVE MODERATION OF HIGH TEMPERATURES INTO THE 50S.  
 

 
   
AVIATION
 
(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY NIGHT)  
ISSUED AT 258 AM CDT THU OCT 21 2021  
 
THE RAIN WILL DIMINISH THROUGH THE EARLY MORNING HOURS AT  
DLH/BRD/HYR, WITH MVFR CEILINGS IMPROVING TO VFR, AS THE SURFACE  
LOW CAUSING THE RAIN DEPARTS. INL AND HIB WILL BE VFR THROUGH THE  
FORECAST. THERE WILL BE A PERIOD OF GUSTY WINDS THROUGH LATE  
THIS MORNING FOR DLH/HYR/BRD WITH NORTHEAST TURNING NORTHERLY  
WINDS WITH GUSTS TO 20KTS.  
 

 
   
MARINE
 
 
ISSUED AT 258 AM CDT THU OCT 21 2021  
 
A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR TWO HARBORS THROUGH  
THE TWIN PORTS AND PORT WING THROUGH 7 AM CDT TODAY. THIS MAY  
NEED TO BE EXTENDED FURTHER INTO THE MORNING FOR POTENTIAL  
CONTINUED SWELL IN EXCESS OF 4 FT EVEN AS WINDS DECREASE. WILL  
MONITOR WAVE TRENDS THROUGH THE EARLY MORNING. THE SMALL CRAFT  
ADVISORY FROM PORT WING TO BAYFIELD HAS BEEN EXTENDED TO 10 AM CDT  
TODAY FOR NORTHEAST TURNING NORTHERLY WINDS OF 10 TO 15 KTS WITH  
GUSTS TO 25 KTS AND WAVES OF 3 TO 6 FEET, HIGHEST FROM PORT WING  
TO SAND ISLAND. FOR THE OUTER APOSTLE ISLANDS AND OAK POINT TO  
SAXON HARBOR, THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 1  
PM CDT FOR NORTHEAST TURNING NORTHERLY WINDS OF 15 TO 20 KTS WITH  
GUSTS TO 30 KTS AND WAVES OF 4 TO 6 FEET, OCCASIONALLY TO 8 FEET.  
THE SOUTH SHORE ADVISORIES MAY ALSO NEED TO BE EXTENDED FURTHER IN  
TIME FOR REMAINING SWELL. THIS WILL BE MONITORED THROUGH THE DAY.  
 

 
   
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
 
 
DLH 47 29 45 30 / 0 0 0 0  
INL 45 26 44 28 / 0 0 10 0  
BRD 47 25 48 28 / 0 0 0 0  
HYR 48 24 48 26 / 0 0 0 0  
ASX 49 29 48 31 / 0 0 30 30  
 

 
   
DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
 
 
WI...NONE.  
MN...NONE.  
LS...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM CDT THIS MORNING FOR LSZ121-146-  
147.  
 
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM CDT THIS MORNING FOR LSZ143>145.  
 
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 1 PM CDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR LSZ148-  
150.  
 

 
 

 
 
DISCUSSION...PA  
AVIATION...PA  
MARINE...PA  
 
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