650
FXUS63 KDLH 131741
AFDDLH
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DULUTH MN
1141 AM CST SAT DEC 13 2025
KEY MESSAGES
- ARCTIC AIR REMAINS IN PLAY FOR TODAY. WITH COLD WEATHER ADVISORIES
CONTINUING UNTIL LATE SUNDAY MORNING
- LIGHT LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS CONTINUE FOR THE SOUTH SHORE
UNTIL SUNDAY AFTERNOON. MOST WILL SEE A HALF INCH OR LESS.
BUT NORTHERN IRON COUNTY CAN EXPECT AN ADDITIONAL 2-4 INCHES.
- WARMTH RETURNS TUESDAY WITH HIGHS SOARING INTO THE 30S AND 40S.
- WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION CHANCES CURRENTLY DON'T RETURN UNTIL
LATE WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 320 AM CST SAT DEC 13 2025
CURRENT CONDITIONS/SUNDAY:
AN ARCTIC AIR MASS CONTINUES TO SPREAD IN FROM THE CANADIAN PRAIRIES
TODAY AS AN UPPER LEVEL LOW SWINGS ACROSS NORTHERN LAKE SUPERIOR.
THE 00Z SOUNDING AT INL REVEALED AN 850MB TEMPERATURE OF -21C. FOR
CONTEXT, WHEN COMPARED TO SOUNDING CLIMATOLOGY THAT VALUE IS BELOW
THE TENTH PERCENTILE. THIS MASS OF COLD AIR WILL LEAD TO HIGHS
LIKELY NOT BREACHING OUT OF THE SUBZERO DIGITS FOR MOST OF THE
NORTHLAND. NORTHWESTERLY WINDS WILL STILL BE A BIT BREEZY DURING THE
DAY BUT NOT NEARLY AS STRONG AS YESTERDAY DUE TO THE PRESSURE
GRADIENT WEAKENING AS THE HIGH ENCROACHES. THE COLD NORTHWEST FLOW
WILL LEAD TO CONTINUED LIGHT SNOW FOR THE SOUTH SHORE. MOST
LOCATIONS WILL SEE AN ADDITIONAL HALF INCH. BUT, NORTHERN IRON
COULD SEE AN ADDITIONAL 2-4 INCHES. CAN'T FULLY RULE OUT SOME
SNOW ON THE MN SIDE AS WELL. THE DEPARTING UPPER LEVEL LOW
STILL HAS A DECENT FETCH OF MOISTURE WRAPPING AROUND IT. COMBINE
THIS OVER ANY INLAND LAKES THAT AREN'T FROZEN WILL YIELD SOME
LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS. AND IF WE MANAGE TO GENERATE ENOUGH LOW
CLOUDS WE MAY SEE SOME ANTHROPOGENIC SNOW AT TIMES. OVERALL, ANY
SNOW ACCUMULATIONS ON THE MN SIDE WILL BE MINIMAL.
SUNDAY WILL BE ANOTHER COLD START. ALTHOUGH NOT NEARLY AS COLD
AS WE ARE THIS MORNING. THE ARCTIC HIGH MOVES INTO THE RED RIVER
VALLEY WHICH WILL LEAD TO WEAKENING WINDS ACROSS THE REGION.
FURTHERMORE, THE SECTOR WITH THE COLDEST AIR WILL HAVE DEPARTED
TO THE SOUTHEAST. THAT BEING SAID, WIND CHILLS IN THE MORNING
WILL STILL BE IN THE -20S TO -30S. NO CHANGES TO THE CURRENT
COLD WEATHER ADVISORY.
EARLY WEEK BOUNCE BACK:
THE ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE WEAKENS AND DRIFTS OFF TO THE SOUTHEAST ON
MONDAY ALLOWING FOR TEMPERATURES TO RECOVER BACK INTO THE 20S.
TEMPERATURES CONTINUE THEIR UPSWING AS A WARM FRONT CROSSES THROUGH
THE NORTHLAND ON TUESDAY. HIGHS WILL SOAR BACK INTO THE 30S AND 40S
AS SOUTHERLY WINDS STREAM THROUGH THE REGION. THESE WARMER
TEMPERATURES LOOK TO PERSIST THROUGH WEDNESDAY BEFORE A COLD FRONT
WILL BRING US BACK DOWN TO CLIMOTOLOGICAL NORMS.
PRECIPITATION CHANCES:
MODELS DON'T HAVE A STRONG CONSENSUS ON THE OVERALL PATTERN AS WE
HEAD INTO THE MID AND LATE WEEK TIMEFRAME. CLUSTER ANALYSIS
MAINTAINS THE ZONAL FLOW OVER THE REGION THROUGH MID WEEK BUT THEN
HAS HINTS OF A TROUGH DIGGING INTO THE NORTHLAND FOR THURSDAY. THE
ZONAL FLOW INITIALLY MAY BRING SOME QUICK HITTING CHANCES ACROSS
OUR FAR NORTH LATE TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY AS A LOW PRESSURE
GLIDES ACROSS ONTARIO. BUT THE NBM DOES NOT SEEM TO BE TO
THRILLED AT THIS PROSPECT AS IT IS PRODUCING LESS THAN A 15%
CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION. IT'S FOCUS SEEMS TO BE ON THE THE
MIDWEEK SYSTEM WHERE ENSEMBLES ARE PINGING ON ANOTHER STOUT
ALBERTA CLIPPER MOVING ACROSS THE UPPER MIDWEST. LOW TRACKS
STILL REMAIN ALL OVER THE PLACE AND WILL HAVE A GREAT IMPACT ON
OUR PRECIPITATION TYPE. A MORE NORTHERNLY TRACK MAY LEAD TO A
WINTRY MIX FOR PORTIONS OF THE REGION ON THURSDAY. BASED ON THE
SOURCE REGION, THIS SYSTEM COULD ALSO SIPHON OFF SOME PACIFIC
NORTHWEST MOISTURE FROM THE ATMOSPHERIC RIVER SPILLING INTO THE
REGION. STILL A WAYS OUT, BUT SOMETHING TO KEEP AN EYE ON IN
FUTURE FORECASTS.
AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY/
ISSUED AT 1138 AM CST SAT DEC 13 2025
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PREVAIL AT MOST TERMINALS ACROSS
THE NORTHLAND FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS. THERE IS AN AREA OF MVFR
CEILINGS FLOATING THROUGH THAT WILL IMPACT SEVERAL TAF SITES IF
THEY GEL UP ENOUGH TO CAUSE A CEILING - IT'S A PRETTY THIN
LAYER. NORTHWEST WINDS WILL REMAIN GUSTY BETWEEN 15 AND 25
KNOTS TODAY, SUBSIDING AFTER 06Z TONIGHT.
MARINE /FOR NEAR SHORE WATERS OF WESTERN LAKE SUPERIOR/
ISSUED AT 320 AM CST SAT DEC 13 2025
GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS HAVE ARRIVED ACROSS WESTERN LAKE SUPERIOR AND
THEY ARE HERE TO STAY FOR MOST OF THE WEEKEND. THE HEAVY
FREEZING SPRAY WARNING HAS BEEN EXTENDED FOR THE OUTER APOSTLE
ISLANDS AS WAVES WILL TAKE SOME TIME TO SUBSIDE. THE GALE
WARNING FOR THE NORTH SHORE HAS BEEN CUT SHORT AND REPLACED WITH
A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY. THERE IS A BRIEF WINDOW THIS EVENING
WHERE A FEW GALES MAY BE OBSERVED ALONG THE NORTH SHORE BUT THE
CONFIDENCE IS NOT HIGH ENOUGH TO HOIST ANOTHER WARNING AT THIS
TIME. IN GENERAL, THE WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO START TAPERING DOWN
AFTER MIDNIGHT ACROSS ALL THE NEAR SHORE WATERS. HOWEVER, THERE
IS ONLY A BRIEF LULL IN THE ENHANCED WINDS FOR THE LAKE.
SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE LATE SUNDAY WITH A
FEW GALES POSSIBLE ALONG THE NORTH SHORE ONCE AGAIN.
FOR THE OPEN WATER DISCUSSION, REFER TO THE NWS MARQUETTE AREA
FORECAST DISCUSSION AT WEATHER.GOV/MQT.
DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MN...COLD WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM CST SUNDAY FOR MNZ010>012-
018>021-025-026-033>038.
WI...COLD WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM CST SUNDAY FOR WIZ001>004-
006>009.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 AM CST SUNDAY FOR LSZ121-140>148-
150.
HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING UNTIL 6 PM CST THIS EVENING FOR
LSZ147-150.
DISCUSSION...BRITT
AVIATION...WOLFE
MARINE...BRITT
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