816
FXUS63 KGRB 021921
AFDGRB
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREEN BAY WI
221 PM CDT TUE JUN 2 2026
FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR ROUTINE AFTERNOON FORECAST ISSUANCE
KEY MESSAGES
- SHOWERS AND STORMS RETURN THURSDAY INTO THE WEEKEND. MARGINAL
RISK (LEVEL 1 OF 5) FOR SEVERE STORMS THURSDAY-THURSDAY NIGHT.
- ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES FOR THE NEXT WEEK. ISOLATED HIGHS OF
90 THURSDAY AND SUNDAY. CHANCE FOR HIGHS IN THE LOWER 90S
INCREASES NEXT WEEK, AS DOES POTENTIAL FOR HEAT RELATED
IMPACTS.
- ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS WEDNESDAY DUE TO LOW RELATIVE
HUMIDITY, ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES, AND INCREASING WINDS.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 219 PM CDT TUE JUN 2 2026
RAIN/STORM CHANCES...BLOCKING MID TO UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OF LATE
BREAKS DOWN THURSDAY INTO THE WEEKEND. A PERIOD OF UNSETTLED
WEATHER WILL RESULT, STARTING UP AS EARLY AS LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT,
BUT MORE LIKELY THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY AS SEVERAL SHORTWAVES
AND STRONGER LOW-MID LEVEL WIND MAXES CROSS THE WESTERN GREAT
LAKES WHILE INTERACTING WITH RESERVOIR OF BUILDING INSTABILITY
OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS. AS HIGH OVER THE REGION EARLY THIS WEEK
MOVES EAST AND TROUGH OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS BEGINS TO ENCROACH,
RETURN FLOW WILL PUMP GULF MOISTURE INTO THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES
WITH PWATS BY FRIDAY AHEAD OF THE PUSHING WELL ABOVE THE 90TH
PERCENTILE FOR THE DAY. THOUGH EXACT TIMING AND PLACEMENT OF
HEAVIEST RAIN IS UNCERTAIN, ENSEMBLES POINT TO FRIDAY AFTERNOON
THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING FOR SEEING A 30 TO 50% CHANCE FOR
RECEIVING HALF AN INCH OF RAIN. CHANCES FOR RAIN DECREASE MARKEDLY
MOVING INTO SATURDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.
SPC HAS HIGHLIGHTED PARTS OF CENTRAL TO NORTH-CENTRAL WI FOR A
MARGINAL RISK (LEVEL 1 OF 5) FOR DAY3 (THURSDAY INTO THURSDAY
NIGHT) AS 500MB SPEED MAX AND INCREASING LOW-LEVEL JET AIMS INTO
WI EVEN AS GREATER ELEVATED INSTABILITY REMAINS OVER NORTHERN
PLAINS. ADDITIONAL STORMS WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE ON FRIDAY AS
SURFACE-BASED INSTABILITY (1500-2500 J/KG) BUILDS IN JUST AHEAD
OF THE SFC LOW AND TROUGH, THOUGH IT IS STILL TOO SOON TO DETERMINE
SEVERE POTENTIAL FRIDAY AS STORM INTENSITY AND DEVELOPMENT WILL
HINGE ON FRONTAL PLACEMENT AND TIMING OF MID-LEVEL SHORTWAVES
(WHICH COULD BE MODULATED BY UPSTREAM CONVECTION).
TEMPERATURES...TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN STEADY IN THE UPPER 70S
TO MID 80S (AROUND 5 TO 10 DEGREES ABOVE AVERAGE) FOR THE NEXT
WEEK AS A WARMING RIDGE DOMINATES THE MIDWEST. HIGHS PEAK IN THE
MID TO UPPER 80S IN/AROUND THE FOX VALLEY INTO FAR NORTHEAST WI
ON THURSDAY, THOUGH THE CHANCES FOR A 90 DEGREE READING REMAIN
LOW (10 TO 20%). CLOUD COVER TIED TO ROUNDS OF SHOWERS AND STORMS
COULD MITIGATE TEMPERATURES FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY. TEMPERATURES
INCREASE AGAIN SUNDAY INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK THOUGH, WITH
PROBABILITIES OF HIGHS 90+ REACHING 30-50% BY MONDAY. HOWEVER,
WITH HIGH NEARBY TO THE EAST, WINDS OFF LAKE MICHIGAN WILL KEEP
EASTERN WI/LAKESHORE COOLER. BASED ON NWS HEAT RISK OUTPUT, IT
APPEARS THAT AS DEWPOINTS INCREASE INTO THE 60S EARLY NEXT WEEK,
THE POTENTIAL FOR HEAT RELATED IMPACTS WILL TICK UPWARD AS WELL
WITH LEVEL 2 IMPACTS (MODERATE LEVEL) SHOWING UP.
AVIATION
FOR 18Z TAF ISSUANCE
ISSUED AT 1246 PM CDT TUE JUN 2 2026
LAKE BREEZE WINDS (E/NE WIND DIRECTION) WILL INFLUENCE GRB/ATW/MTW
THIS AFTERNOON. WINDS WILL MAINLY BE 10 KTS OR LESS, THOUGH GUSTS
MAY REACH 15 KTS AT TIMES. THE REST OF THE TAF PERIOD WILL FEATURE
LIGHT WINDS TONIGHT, FOLLOWED BY LIGHT SW WINDS INLAND AND LOCALLY
ONSHORE WINDS NEAR THE BAY AND LAKE MICHIGAN ON WEDNESDAY MORNING.
VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE WITH HIGH PRESSURE IN CONTROL. SCATTERED
HIGH CLOUDS TODAY AND TONIGHT, WILL BE FOLLOWED BY SCATTERED CU LATE
WEDNESDAY MORNING INTO WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON.
FIRE WEATHER
ISSUED AT 219 PM CDT TUE JUN 2 2026
PROLONGED STRETCH OF DRY WEATHER WILL RESULT IN ELEVATED TO NEAR
CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER POTENTIAL THROUGH WEDNESDAY AS AFTERNOON
RHS FALL INTO THE 20 TO 30% RANGE ACROSS THE SANDY SOIL REGIONS.
DESPITE WIDESPREAD GREEN UP, FUELS REMAIN VOLATILE GIVEN THE ABSENCE
OF SOAKING RAINFALL, WITH THE MAIN PERIOD OF CONCERN BEING WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON WHEN LOW RHS COINCIDE WITH INCREASING GRADIENT WIND.
WINDS CURRENTLY LOOK TO REMAIN JUST BELOW CRITICAL THRESHOLDS,
THOUGH ISSUANCE OF AN SPS COULD STILL OCCUR. FIRE WEATHER THREAT
THEN DIMINISHES TOWARD THE END OF THE WEEK WITH THE ARRIVAL OF
SCATTERED RAIN/STORMS.
GRB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
DISCUSSION.....JLA
AVIATION.......JLA
FIRE WEATHER...JLA
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