759
FXUS63 KGRB 271131
AFDGRB
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREEN BAY WI
631 AM CDT TUE OCT 27 2020
UPDATED AVIATION PORTION FOR 12Z TAF ISSUANCE
SHORT TERM...TODAY...TONIGHT
AND WEDNESDAY
ISSUED AT 338 AM CDT TUE OCT 27 2020
RECORD OR NEAR RECORD COLD TEMPERATURES THIS MORNING WHERE
THERE IS SNOW ON THE GROUND AND SKIES ARE CLEAR. SOME PLACES IN
THE NORTHWOODS WERE IN THE SINGLE NUMBERS AT 3 O'CLOCK. SKIES WILL
BECOME MOSTLY SUNNY TODAY AS WEAK SURFACE RIDGE MOVES ACROSS
WISCONSIN. TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE A FEW DEGREES HIGHER THAN
YESTERDAY, BUT STILL ABOUT 15 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL.
WARM ADVECTION SHOULD PRODUCE SOME MID LEVEL CLOUDS TONIGHT THAT
WILL TEAM UP WITH A STEADY SOUTHWEST WIND TO KEEP TEMPERATURES
FROM FALLING MUCH TONIGHT. LOWS WILL BE CLOSE TO NORMAL.
A WEAK COLD FRONT MOVING ACROSS THE AREA WEDNESDAY COULD PRODUCE
SPRINKLES OR FLURRIES NEAR THE MICHIGAN BORDER, AND PERHAPS SOME
VIRGA FURTHER SOUTH. HIGHS WILL BE A FEW DEGREES BELOW NORMAL.
LONG TERM
WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY
ISSUED AT 338 AM CDT TUE OCT 27 2020
THE MAIN FOCI OF THE LONG TERM FORECAST ARE THE INCREASE IN
TEMPERATURES, WINDS ON SATURDAY, AND A COUPLE OF CHANCES OF
FLURRIES, MAINLY ACROSS NORTHERN WISCONSIN.
WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY... AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE MOVES
TOWARD THE REGION FROM THE WEST, NORTH WINDS WILL KEEP MODEST CAA
IN PLACE ACROSS THE AREA. THERE WILL BE A MODEST INCREASE IN CLOUD
COVER AS WELL AS A CHANCE FOR SOME LIGHT SNOW FLURRIES ACROSS FAR
NORTHERN WISCONSIN. MOISTURE WILL LIKELY STILL BE SOMEWHAT
LIMITED, SO ONLY FLURRIES ARE ANTICIPATED AT THIS TIME.
FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY... THE SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL MAKE
ITS WAY INTO THE REGION AS A WEAK UPPER RIDGE MOVES ACROSS THE
AREA, WHICH WILL BRING A RETURN TO SUNNY SKIES. FAIRLY QUIET
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED FOR FRIDAY. AS THE HIGH PRESSURE DEPARTS
FRIDAY NIGHT, THE TIGHTENING PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN THE HIGH TO
OUR EAST AND APPROACHING LOW TO OUR WEST WILL BRING A FAIRLY SWIFT
INCREASE IN WINDS ON SATURDAY. WINDS IN THE LOWER LEVEL APPROACH
40 TO 45 MPH. ALTHOUGH MOST OF THESE GUST LIKELY WON'T REACH THE
SURFACE OVER LAND, THE RELATIVELY WARMER WATERS OVER LAKE MICHIGAN
AND THE BAY OF GREEN BAY COULD BRING A BIT MORE MIXING, WHICH
COULD POSE A HAZARD TO MARINERS. WINDS WILL BE PREDOMINANTLY FROM
THE SOUTHWEST, AND THIS RETURN FLOW WILL BRING THE WARMEST DAY
WE'VE HAD IN SOME TIME, WITH HIGHS AROUND NORMAL IN THE UPPER 40S
AND LOWER 50S.
REST OF THE FORECAST...SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY, AN UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH AND AFOREMENTIONED LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL PASS THE
REGION. THE TRAILING COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SYSTEM COULD
ONCE AGAIN GRAZE NORTHERN WISCONSIN, BRINGING WITH IT ANOTHER
CHANCE FOR SOME LIGHT PRECIPITATION. THE COLD AIR WILL BRING A DIP
IN TEMPERATURES FOR SUNDAY, BACK TO A FEW DEGREES BELOW NORMAL.
THE COOLER TEMPS WON'T LAST LONG HOWEVER, AS RETURN FLOW STARTS
EARLY NEXT WEEK, POSSIBLY PUSHING TEMPS A FEW DEGREES ABOVE
NORMAL, INTO THE UPPER 40S TO MIDDLE 50S.
AVIATION
FOR 12Z TAF ISSUANCE
ISSUED AT 630 AM CDT TUE OCT 27 2020
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED TODAY THROUGH NOON WEDNESDAY, WITH SOME
MIDDLE CLOUDS AT TIMES. A COLD FRONT MOVING THROUGH WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON COULD PRODUCE SEVERAL HOURS OF MVFR CEILINGS NORTH OF
RHINELANDER, WITH VFR CONDITIONS TO THE SOUTH. LOW LEVEL WIND
SHEAR COULD BE A CONSIDERATION TONIGHT WITH SOUTHWEST WINDS AROUND
10 KNOTS AT THE SURFACE WITH SOUTHWEST WINDS OF 40 TO 50 KNOTS AT
2000 FT AGL.
GRB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
SHORT TERM.....RDM
LONG TERM......UHLMANN
AVIATION.......RDM
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