407
FXUS63 KGRB 312319
AFDGRB
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREEN BAY WI
619 PM CDT FRI OCT 31 2025
KEY MESSAGES
- LIGHT RAIN EXPECTED TONIGHT, ESPECIALLY NORTHEAST AND CENTRAL
WI. A LIGHT MIX OF RAIN AND SNOW POSSIBLE IN FAR NORTH CENTRAL
WI LATE TONIGHT INTO EARLY SATURDAY.
- ADDITIONAL PRECIPITATION CHANCES EXPECTED SUNDAY NIGHT, TUESDAY
NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY.
- BECOMING WINDY LATE SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY NIGHT, WITH POSSIBLE
GALES ON LAKE MICHIGAN.
- NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURES THROUGH MUCH OF THE NEXT WEEK.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 338 PM CDT FRI OCT 31 2025
PRECIPITATION TRENDS TONIGHT INTO SATURDAY: PERIODIC LIGHT RAIN
ASSOCIATED WITH AN APPROACHING UPPER LOW WILL WRAP INTO CENTRAL WI
THROUGH TONIGHT, WHILE SHOWERS ALONG A COLD FRONT (CURRENTLY OVER
FAR NORTHERN WI) SAG SOUTH AND GRADUALLY WEAKEN. WHILE MOST AREAS
WILL LIKELY SEE AT LEAST SCATTERED SHOWERS, THE STEADIER RAINS
SHOULD OCCUR OVER THE NE AND SW PARTS OF THE FORECAST AREA. THE
PRECIPITATION SHOULD BE LIGHT, WITH AMOUNTS GENERALLY UNDER A
TENTH OF AN INCH. PRECIPITATION TYPE BECOME PROBLEMATIC OVER FAR
NC WI LATE TONIGHT INTO EARLY SATURDAY, AS SURFACE TEMPERATURES
DROP TO NEAR FREEZING AND 1000-850 THICKNESSES LOWER TO LESS THAN
1300 METERS, LEADING TO POTENTIAL FOR FREEZING/FROZEN OR MIXED
PRECIPITATION IN LOCALIZED AREAS. HAVE SIDED WITH SLIGHTLY WARMER
TEMPERATURES OVERNIGHT, AS NORTH FLOW WILL BE OFF THE RELATIVELY
MILD WATERS OF LAKE SUPERIOR. MODELS OFFER DIFFERENT SOLUTIONS
REGARDING THE DEPTH OF THE LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE LAYER, WHICH WILL
BE CRITICAL IN DETERMINING IF ICE CRYSTALS WILL BE PRESENT IN THE
SATURATED LAYER (NO=DZ/FZDZ AND YES=SNOW). FOR NOW, WILL JUST
KEEP IT SIMPLE AND MENTION A CHANCE OF LIGHT MIXED RAIN/SNOW, WITH
MINIMAL EXPECTED IMPACT DUE TO UNFROZEN GROUND AND WARM ROADS.
PRECIPITATION TRENDS FOR THE REST OF THE EXTENDED FORECAST: A
SHORT-WAVE TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE WILL BRING
LIGHT RAIN TO THE REGION SUNDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY MONDAY. THIS
SYSTEM WILL WILL ALSO GENERATE GUSTY SOUTHWEST WINDS AHEAD OF THE
FRONT AND WEST-NORTHWEST WINDS AFTER THE FRONTAL PASSAGE. WITH 925
MB WINDS OF 40-45 KNOTS SETTING UP SUNDAY NIGHT, THERE IS
POTENTIAL FOR GALES ON THE BAY AND LAKE MICHIGAN.
ANOTHER SHORT WAVE AND COLD FRONT WILL IMPACT THE REGION TUESDAY
NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY, WITH PERHAPS A MORE MOISTURE-LADEN SYSTEM
ARRIVING THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY.
TEMPERATURES: TEMPERATURES WILL OSCILLATE A BIT WITH THE PASSAGE
OF PERIODIC COLD FRONTS DURING THE NEXT WEEK, BUT OVERALL, SHOULD
REMAIN CLOSE TO NORMAL. WILL NEED TO KEEP AN EYE ON THE END OF
NEXT WEEK, AS SOME MODELS SHOW FAIRLY STRONG SOUTHERLY RETURN FLOW
AND SOME POTENTIAL FOR ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES.
AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SUNDAY/
ISSUED AT 619 PM CDT FRI OCT 31 2025
SCATTERED (30-60% CHANCE) SHOWERS WILL OCCUR TONIGHT AS A TROUGH
OF LOW PRESSURE SWINGS THROUGH. MVFR TO VFR CEILINGS WILL
GENERALLY PERSIST INTO SATURDAY WITH A TREND TO MAINLY VFR
CONDITIONS DURING THE AFTERNOON. WINDS WILL BECOME NORTHERLY,
BUT REMAIN GENERALLY NEAR OR BELOW 10 KTS.
GRB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
WI...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
DISCUSSION...KIECKBUSCH
AVIATION...JM
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