849
FXUS63 KGRB 060319
AFDGRB
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREEN BAY WI
1019 PM CDT FRI JUN 5 2026
UPDATED AVIATION PORTION FOR 06Z TAF ISSUANCE
KEY MESSAGES
- SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO CROSS THE AREA FROM
WEST TO EAST THROUGH THIS EVENING. SOME STORMS COULD BECOME
STRONG OR SEVERE, WITH DAMAGING WINDS AND UP TO 1" HAIL BEING
THE MAIN CONCERNS.
- WARM MOIST AIR MOVING ACROSS LAKE MICHIGAN WILL BRING A PERIOD
OF MARINE DENSE FOG ACROSS THE NEARSHORE ZONES, WHICH MAY AFFECT
BOATERS.
- ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES PERSIST FOR THE NEXT WEEK. HIGH
TEMPERATURES IN THE 90S ALONG WITH HUMIDITY WILL INCREASE THE
POTENTIAL FOR MODERATE TO MAJOR HEAT- RELATED IMPACTS.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 146 PM CDT FRI JUN 5 2026
STORMS THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING...
ACTIVE WEATHER WILL BE THE MAIN FOCUS OF THE FORECAST TODAY.
UPSTREAM DEVELOPMENT IN MINNESOTA ASSOCIATED WITH A MID-LEVEL
SHORTWAVE IS READILY VISIBLE ON BOTH SATELLITE AND RADAR; AND THIS
WILL BE THE MAIN FEATURE TO WATCH FOR ANY STRONGER STORM
DEVELOPMENT. INSTABILITY AHEAD OF THIS FEATURE HAS PROVED
SUFFICIENT FOR SOME ISOLATED CONVECTION, MAINLY IN THE UPPER
PENINSULA, BUT WILL NEED TO WATCH FOR AT LEAST ISOLATED CONVECTION
DEVELOPING OUT OF THE CUMULUS FIELD ACROSS THE NORTHWOODS. AS THE
STORMS PROGRESS INTO THE REGION, MODEST LAPSE RATES, WEAK SHEAR,
AND CONVERGENCE ALONG THE SHORTWAVE COULD SERVE TO PROVIDE A BRIEF
HAIL THREAT, MAINLY LIMITED FURTHER WEST WHERE INSTABILITY AND
LAPSE RATES WILL BE GREATEST AS THE SHORTWAVE ARRIVES. WIND THEN
BECOMES THE MORE LIKELY THREAT FURTHER EAST AS SCATTERED
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY HEADS INTO THE AND THROUGH THE FOX VALLEY,
WITH CAMS SUGGESTING THE POSSIBILITY OF SOME BRIEF BOWING SEGMENTS
EMBEDDED IN SCATTERED THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY. TIMING ON STORMS
REMAINS FAIRLY SIMILAR TO PREVIOUS FORECASTS, WITH AN ARRIVAL IN
THE MID TO LATE AFTERNOON FOR CENTRAL AND NORTH-CENTRAL WISCONSIN,
AND MORE OF AN EVENING TIMEFRAME FOR THE FOX VALLEY. PWATS DURING
THIS TIME PERIOD REMAIN FAIRLY HIGH (>1.5"), SO MODERATE TO HEAVY
RAINFALL WILL BE POSSIBLE WITHIN ANY CONVECTION., WHICH MAY ALSO
MAKE FOR SOME FAIRLY HIGH LOCALIZED RAINFALL TOTALS FOR AREAS THAT
SEE THE STRONGER STORMS. HIGH END AMOUNTS COULD PRODUCE SPOTS
WITH OVER AN INCH OF RAINFALL.
FOG...
FOG OVER THE MARINE ZONES WILL BE IN PLACE THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING AS THE WARM AND MOIST AIRMASS LIFTS NORTHWARDS. WOULD
EXPECTED IMPROVEMENT AS WINDS SHIFT AHEAD OF AND ALONG THE
CONVECTION THAT WILL ARRIVE FROM THE WEST.
TEMPERATURES...
ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE WEEKEND INTO
NEXT WEEK, BUT A SURGE OF EVEN WARMER TEMPERATURES WILL LIKELY
(60-80% CHANCE) BRING HIGH TEMPERATURES INTO THE 90S BY THE MIDDLE
OF NEXT WEEK. AS THIS WILL BE A SEVERAL DAY STRETCH OF WARM HIGH
TEMPERATURES AND LOW TEMPERATURES ALSO REMAIN IN THE 60S, HEAT
RELATED IMPACTS ARE EXPECTED TO SEE A MAJOR INCREASE NEXT WEEK.
WARMEST PERIODS LOOK TO BE WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY AFTERNOONS,
WHERE SOME OF THE HIGHER POTENTIAL HEAT INDICES ARE FORECAST TO
EXCEED 100 DEGREES ACROSS PORTIONS OF CENTRAL WISCONSIN TO THE FOX
VALLEY. THOUGH STILL TOO SOON TO SAY WITH CERTAINTY, WILL NEED TO
MONITOR THE POTENTIAL FOR HEADLINES AS WE HEAD INTO EARLY NEXT
WEEK.
EXTENDED... ACCOMPANYING THE HEAT AND HUMIDITY NEXT WEEK WILL BE
A RESERVOIR OF INSTABILITY THAT BUILDS OVER MUCH OF THE UPPER
MIDWEST. HOWEVER, PREDICTABILITY FOR ANY RAIN/STORM CHANCES
REMAINS LOW THIS FAR OUT AS MID-LEVEL RIDGE SITS RIGHT OVERHEAD.
MOST OF THE RIDGE RIDER ACTIVITY LOOKS TO STAY OFF TO OUR WEST,
SO CONVECTIVE INITIATION IN OUR NECK OF THE WOODS WOULD LIKELY
HINGE ON SMALLER SCALE FORCING MECHANISMS GIVEN THE GENERAL
ABSENCE OF UPPER SUPPORT. THIS BEING SAID, CANNOT RULE OUT
PERIODIC CHANCES FOR SOME STRONGER DIURNAL STORMS GIVEN THE
MAGNITUDE OF DESTABILIZATION LIKELY TO OCCUR DURING PEAK HEATING.
AVIATION
FOR 06Z TAF ISSUANCE
ISSUED AT 1015 PM CDT FRI JUN 5 2026
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL EXIT FAR EASTERN WI BY 06Z.
OTHERWISE, PATCHY FOG WILL DEVELOP OVERNIGHT, ALTHOUGH THERE
SHOULD BE A LITTLE WIND TO KEEP MOST OF THE AREA FROM SEEING
DENSE FOG. ANY FOG SHOULD BURN FF BY 12-13Z ON SATURDAY. FAIR
WEATHER CUMULUS IN THE VFR CATEGORY IS EXPECTED SATURDAY
AFTERNOON WITH WEST/NORTHWEST WINDS OF 5 TO 15 KTS. THE ONLY
EXCEPTION WILL BE ALONG THE BAY AND LAKE WHERE A SOUTH/SOUTHEAST
BREEZE WILL DEVELOP DUE TO THE COOLER WATERS.
GRB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
DISCUSSION.....UHLMANN
AVIATION.......ECKBERG
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.
Main Text Page