319
FXUS63 KGRB 160715
AFDGRB
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREEN BAY WI
215 AM CDT MON MAR 16 2026
FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR ROUTINE MORNING FORECAST ISSUANCE
KEY MESSAGES
- THE HISTORIC WINTER STORM WILL CONTINUE TO MAKE TRAVEL
EXTREMELY DIFFICULT TO IMPOSSIBLE THROUGH THIS MORNING. THOSE
WITH TRAVEL PLANS, INCLUDING AIR TRAVEL, SHOULD MAKE ALTERNATIVE
PLANS.
- HEAVY SNOW AND STRONG NORTHEAST WINDS WILL RESULT IN BLIZZARD
CONDITIONS RE-DEVELOPING THIS MORNING, CONTINUING INTO THIS
AFTERNOON. A BLIZZARD WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 4 PM.
- AN ADDITIONAL 4 TO 10 INCHES OF SNOW IS EXPECTED THROUGH THIS
AFTERNOON, HIGHEST IN/AROUND THE FOX VALLEY.
- BELOW ZERO WIND CHILLS WILL BE POSSIBLE TODAY, WITH
TEMPERATURES MODERATING BACK TO NEAR NORMAL THROUGHOUT THE WEEK.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 1153 PM CDT SUN MAR 15 2026
HISTORIC WINTER STORM CONTINUES... FOLLOWING A BRIEF LULL IN THE
SNOW LATE THIS EVENING (INCLUDING PERIODS OF FREEZING DRIZZLE),
WE GET RIGHT BACK INTO THE BRUNT OF THE ACTION AS HEAVY SNOW HAS
ALREADY BEGUN RE-DEVELOPING FROM THE SOUTH IN CONJUNCTION WITH A
MID-LEVEL SHORTWAVE THAT HAS DEEPENED INTO A CLOSED LOW OVER
SOUTHERN WISCONSIN. AS SUCH, CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE TO
DETERIORATE RAPIDLY OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS AS 1"/HR SNOWFALL
RATES ENTER THE FOX VALLEY AND LAKESHORE AREAS. PROVIDED A DEEP
DGZ (~12K FT) AND AMPLE SYNOPTIC SUPPORT, SNOW SHOULD BE ABLE TO
ACCUMULATE RATHER QUICKLY THROUGHOUT THE MORNING. HOWEVER, HAVE
STUCK WITH LOWER SLRS SINCE STRONG WINDS WILL LIKELY FRACTURE ANY
LARGER DENDRITES. WHEN COMBINED WITH SAID NORTHEAST WINDS GUSTING
TO 45 MPH, THERE IS A HIGH LIKELIHOOD THAT BLIZZARD CONDITIONS
WILL SET IN ONCE AGAIN, LASTING THROUGH THE MORNING. WHEN ALL IS
SAID AND DONE, THERE REMAINS A HIGH PROBABILITY (50 TO 80% CHANCE)
THAT THE FOX VALLEY EASTWARD WILL PICK UP ANOTHER 10 INCHES OF
SNOW THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON, LOCALLY HIGHER. CONDITIONS SHOULD
THEN GRADUALLY IMPROVE BY THIS EVENING AS WINDS SUBSIDE AND SNOW
WINDS DOWN. ALL IN ALL, WE REMAIN ON TRACK TO GO DOWN IN THE
RECORD BOOKS WITH A WIDESPREAD 1 TO 2 FT OF SNOW, LOCALLY UP TO
30 INCHES OVER PORTIONS OF FAR NORTHEAST WISCONSIN.
HEADLINE CONSIDERATIONS... NO CHANGES MADE TO THE HEADLINES ON
THIS SHIFT, WITH THE BLIZZARD WARNING SET TO GO UNTIL 4 PM. MAIN
CONSIDERATION MOVING FORWARD WILL BE WHETHER OR NOT TO CANCEL THE
BLIZZARD WARNING EARLY, AS SOME CAMS INDICATE WINDS DYING DOWN
SLIGHTLY EARLIER ACROSS THE NORTHWEST PORTION OF THE FORECAST
AREA.
BITTER COLD TODAY... COMBINATION OF ROBUST NORTHERLY FLOW AND 850
MB TEMPS READING -20 TO -22C WILL RESULT IN A QUICK SHOT OF
ARCTIC AIR TODAY, WITH WIND CHILL READINGS TO -10F ACROSS THE
NORTH, AND STRUGGLING TO HIT 0 DEGREES IN/AROUND THE FOX VALLEY.
THE COLD WILL NOT BE LONG-LIVED AS SYNOPTIC FLOW DE-AMPLIFIES,
RESULTING IN WEAK RIDGING MODERATING TEMPERATURES BACK TO NEAR
NORMAL, AND EVEN ABOVE NORMAL, BY THE END OF THE WORK WEEK. HIGHS
IN THE MID TO UPPER 40S WILL RETURN THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY.
EXTENDED... WE'RE NOT QUITE DONE WITH SNOW YET, AS A COUPLE OF
TRANSIENT CLIPPER LOWS LOOK TO BRING ADDITIONAL CHANCES FOR LIGHT
SNOW THROUGH THE END OF THE WORK WEEK. THE FIRST OF THESE
SYSTEMS, TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY, CURRENTLY LOOKS TO TAKE A DIVE TO
OUR SOUTH FOR THE MOST PART, THOUGH THIS IS WONT TO CHANGE IN THE
NEXT DAY OR TWO. THE SECOND, FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY, LOOKS TO BE
MORE OF A CLASSIC SETUP, TRACKING THE SURFACE LOW OVER LAKE
SUPERIOR AND AFFECTING MAINLY THE NORTHERN SNOW BELTS.
AVIATION
FOR 06Z TAF ISSUANCE
ISSUED AT 1051 PM CDT SUN MAR 15 2026
HEAVY SNOW WILL REDEVELOP OVERNIGHT INTO MONDAY MORNING, ALONG
WITH BLIZZARD CONDITIONS AS NORTH WINDS GUSTING TO 35 TO 45 KTS
PRODUCE WIDESPREAD BLOWING AND DRIFTING AND WHITEOUT CONDITIONS. A
GRADUAL IMPROVEMENT IN CONDITIONS WILL OCCUR FROM LATE MORNING
THROUGH THE AFTERNOON, WITH VFR BY LATE AFTERNOON OR EARLY EVENING.
GRB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
BLIZZARD WARNING UNTIL 4 PM CDT MONDAY FOR WIZ005-010>013-
018>022-030-031-035>040-045-048>050-073-074.
DISCUSSION.....GOODIN
AVIATION.......KIECKBUSCH
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