506
FXUS63 KGRB 040341
AFDGRB
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREEN BAY WI
1041 PM CDT SUN MAY 3 2026
UPDATED AVIATION PORTION FOR 06Z TAF ISSUANCE
KEY MESSAGES
- SCATTERED RAIN SHOWERS MONDAY (20-40%). BEST CHANCE OF THUNDER
DURING THE AFTERNOON ACROSS EAST-CENTRAL WISCONSIN. NO SEVERE
IS WEATHER EXPECTED.
- BREEZY CONDITIONS EXPECTED MONDAY. THERE IS A 40-80% CHANCE OF
WIND GUSTS OVER 35 MPH, WITH THE STRONGEST GUSTS ACROSS EASTERN
WISCONSIN.
- WARMER THROUGH MONDAY, THEN TEMPERATURES FALL BELOW NORMAL FOR
THE REST OF THE WEEK. RISK FOR FROST/FREEZE HEADLINES STARTS UP
AGAIN TUESDAY NIGHT.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 137 PM CDT SUN MAY 3 2026
A COLD FRONT WILL CONTINUE PUSHING THROUGH NORTHERN WISCONSIN THIS
AFTERNOON, WHICH WILL SWITCH THE WIND DIRECTION FROM SOUTHWEST TO
WESTERLY. CAMS MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW ISOLATED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS POPPING UP ACROSS THE FAR NORTHEASTERN PORTION OF
THE CWA THIS AFTERNOON AS THE COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE AREA,
WITH A RESERVOIR OF 200-400 J/KG OF MUCAPE TO WORK WITH. GUSTY
WINDS OF 20 TO 30 MPH WILL CONTINUE THROUGH EARLY THIS EVENING
UNTIL THE ATMOSPHERE DECOUPLES.
ANOTHER COLD FRONT IS SLATED TO MOVE THROUGH THE AREA ON MONDAY.
CONDITIONS AHEAD OF THE FRONT WILL BE WARM AND BREEZY, WITH HIGHS
OVER 70 FOR ALL BUT NORTH-CENTRAL WISCONSIN AND WIND GUSTS OVER
35 MPH, ESPECIALLY ACROSS EASTERN WISCONSIN. DESPITE THE FRONT
PUSHING INTO THE WARMER REGIME, MARGINALLY STEEP MID-LEVEL LAPSE
RATES AND OVERALL DRY AIRMASS LEAD TO INSTABILITY THAT IS NOT ALL
THAT ROBUST WITH A NARROW RIBBON OF MLCAPES AROUND 500 J/KG. THAT
BEING SAID, THE CHANCE FOR THUNDER IS STILL ON THE TABLE SINCE THE
FRONT TRACKS THROUGH THE AREA AROUND PEAK HEATING, MAXIMIZING THE
AVAILABLE INSTABILITY THAT IS AVAILABLE. NO SEVERE WEATHER OR
HEAVY RAIN IS EXPECTED; HOWEVER, GIVEN THE STRONG WINDS ALOFT AND
STEEPER LOW-LEVEL LAPSE RATES, THERE COULD BE A STRONGER STORM
THAT PRODUCES ISOLATED WIND GUSTS OF 40-50 MPH.
BEHIND THIS COLD FRONT, COOLER CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE
REGION FOR THE REST OF THE WEEK AS TEMPERATURES FALL BELOW NORMAL
VALUES FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR. THE OVERALL PATTERN FOR THE REST OF
THE WEEK IS EXPECTED TO MAINLY BE DRY; HOWEVER, A FEW SHOWERS
COULD POP UP AT TIMES AS THE COOLER AIR ALOFT CREATES STEEP LOW
LEVEL LAPSE RATES. THERE IS A BETTER SIGNAL FOR SHOWERS ON
THURSDAY AS A VIGOROUS SHORTWAVE IS PROGGED TO DROP SOUTHEAST
THROUGH THE UPPER TROUGH ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES. THE COOLER
TEMPERATURES MEAN THE FROST/FREEZE POTENTIAL WILL RETURN BEGINNING
TUESDAY NIGHT AND LIKELY WILL LAST THROUGH AT LEAST THURSDAY
NIGHT, IF NOT FRIDAY NIGHT.
TEMPERATURES BOUNCE BACK TO AT OR ABOVE NORMAL NEXT WEEKEND AS
WARMER RIDGE OVER THE WESTERN CONUS BEGINS TO MAKE SHIFT TOWARD
THE PLAINS AND THE MIDWEST.
AVIATION
FOR 06Z TAF ISSUANCE
ISSUED AT 1041 PM CDT SUN MAY 3 2026
BEHIND A COLD FRONT, MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES PREVAIL ACROSS THE REGION
LATE THIS EVENING. MID AND HIGH CLOUDS WILL RETURN AND LOWER LATE
TONIGHT.
LLWS IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP BY 07Z AT KRHI AND AFTER 11Z AT THE
OTHER TERMINALS, THEN DIMINISH AS WINDS MIX DOWN 14-15Z. SURFACE
WINDS WILL THEN GUST TO 25-30 KNOTS OUT OF THE SOUTHWEST UNTIL
EARLY MONDAY EVENING.
ANOTHER COLD FRONT WILL SHIFT OVER THE AREA FROM NORTHWEST TO
SOUTHEAST LATE MONDAY MORNING THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. AHEAD OF THE
FRONT, SHOWER COVERAGE IS LOOKING SPARSE AND CONFIDENCE REMAINS
LOW. HOWEVER, THERE SEEMS TO BE SUFFICIENT SATURATION FOR A PROB30
GROUP AT KRHI ON MONDAY AFTERNOON. DECIDED TO MAINTAIN THE DRY
FORECAST AT THE OTHER TERMINALS. WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR TRENDS
OVER EAST- CENTRAL WI FOR A SHOWER ADDITION IN LATER TAF CYCLES.
GRB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
DISCUSSION.....KURIMSKI
AVIATION.......MPC
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