112
FXUS63 KGRB 311743
AFDGRB
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREEN BAY WI
1243 PM CDT SUN MAY 31 2026
UPDATED AVIATION PORTION FOR 18Z TAF ISSUANCE
KEY MESSAGES
- DRY WEATHER PREVAILS THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.
- TEMPERATURES AROUND 80 THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK, RISING INTO THE
80S BY THE MIDDLE TO LATE PART OF THE WEEK.
- ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS INTO NEXT WEEK DUE TO LOW
RELATIVE HUMIDITY AND ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES. NEAR-CRITICAL
CONDITIONS MAY DEVELOP MID TO LATE PART OF NEXT WEEK WHEN WINDS
INCREASE.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 100 AM CDT SUN MAY 31 2026
PRECIPITATION CHANCES...A STRONG RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE IS
EXPECTED TO DOMINATE THE WEATHER PATTERN THROUGH AT LEAST THE
MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK, KEEPING CONDITIONS DRY. THE ONLY MINOR
INTRUSION THAT SOME GUIDANCE IS HINTING AT IS A SUBTLE SHIFT OF
THE PERSISTENT STATIONARY MOISTURE TO THE SOUTHWEST OF THE REGION
MOVING INTO THE SOUTHWEST PORTION OF THE FORECAST AREA SUNDAY
NIGHT INTO MONDAY. IF THIS OCCURS, A FEW LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS OR
SPRINKLES MAY OCCUR ACROSS CENTRAL WISCONSIN; HOWEVER, DRY AIR
FROM THE PREVAILING HIGH PRESSURE SHOULD KEEP CONDITIONS DRY.
BY WEDNESDAY NIGHT, THE UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE WILL FLATTEN AND THE
HIGH PRESSURE WILL SLIDE EASTWARD AS A SHORTWAVE TROUGH APPROACHES
FROM THE NORTHERN PLAINS. BEGINNING THURSDAY, THE PATTERN BECOMES
UNSETTLED WITH MULTIPLE CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
THROUGH NEXT WEEKEND. SINCE THERE ARE STILL SOME TIMING ISSUES, IT
IS TOO EARLY TO DETERMINE ANY SEVERE POTENTIAL AT THIS TIME.
TEMPERATURES...HIGH TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO BE A FEW DEGREES
ABOVE NORMAL THROUGH TUESDAY WITH HIGHS AROUND 80 AWAY FROM THE
LAKESHORE. TEMPERATURES WILL THEN INCREASE TO ABOUT 10 DEGREES
ABOVE NORMAL BY WEDNESDAY AS HIGHS INCREASE INTO THE 80S ACROSS
THE REGION, WHICH IS EXPECTED TO LAST INTO NEXT WEEKEND.
THE THREAT OF HIGH TEMPERATURES OF 90 OR GREATER WILL BE SMALL
(LESS THAN 20%) THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK. THIS IS EXPECTED
TO INCREASE TO 20 TO 40% BY LATE NEXT WEEK INTO THE WEEKEND
ACROSS CENTRAL WISCONSIN, THE FOX VALLEY, AND FAR NORTHEAST
WISCONSIN.
AVIATION
FOR 18Z TAF ISSUANCE
ISSUED AT 1243 PM CDT SUN MAY 31 2026
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD AS HIGH CLOUDS
CONTINUE TO FILTER OVER THE REGION. GENERALLY, WINDS WILL BE
UNDER 8 KTS MAINLY FROM THE SOUTH THIS AFTERNOON, WITH
SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS AT MTW DUE TO A LIGHT LAKE BREEZE. WINDS
BECOME LIGHT AND VARIABLE OVERNIGHT, BEFORE TURNING
EAST/SOUTHEAST MONDAY MORNING.
THERE ARE SUBTLE INDICATIONS FOR PATCHY FOG SOMETIME BETWEEN
06Z-12Z MON. CONFIDENCE IS NOT EXTREMELY HIGH IN THIS OCCURRING,
BUT IF IT WERE TO DEVELOP, THE GREATEST POTENTIAL WOULD BE AT THE
RHI TAF SITE. INCLUDED A TEMPO GROUP FOR NOW.
THERE IS A LOW-END (15-20%) FOR SCATTERED SHOWERS ACROSS WESTERN
WI ALONG AND WEST OF AN KEAU TO KDLL LINE, EARLY MONDAY MORNING
(06Z-12Z), THAT COULD SHIFT EAST INTO PARTS OF CENTRAL WI;
HOWEVER, ANY AVIATION IMPACTS SHOULD BE MINIMAL.
FIRE WEATHER
ISSUED AT 100 AM CDT SUN MAY 31 2026
UNTIL A WIDESPREAD WETTING RAIN OCCURS, ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER
CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH MUCH OF NEXT WEEK AS AFTERNOON
RHS WILL ROUTINELY DROP TO 20 TO 30% OR LOWER WITH TEMPERATURES
IN THE 70S/80S. DESPITE GREEN UP PROGRESSING AND/OR COMPLETING,
FUEL INPUT FROM FIRE PARTNERS POINTS TO CONCERN WHERE RECENT
DRYNESS PERSISTS, ANY DAYS WITH INCREASING WINDS COULD ALLOW THE
FIRE WEATHER POTENTIAL TO RISE TO NEAR-CRITICAL. THE BEST
POTENTIAL COULD BE THE MIDDLE TO LATE PART OF NEXT WEEK AS THE
LOWER RH VALUES COULD COINCIDE WITH INCREASING GRADIENT WINDS AS
THE PREVAILING HIGH PRESSURE EXITS EAST AND A SHORTWAVE/TROUGH
APPROACHES FROM THE NORTHERN PLAINS.
GRB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
DISCUSSION.....KURIMSKI
AVIATION.......KRUK
FIRE WEATHER...KURIMSKI
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