591  
FXUS63 KGRB 090009  
AFDGRB  
 
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION  
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREEN BAY WI  
609 PM CST THU DEC 8 2022  
 
UPDATED AVIATION PORTION FOR 00Z TAF ISSUANCE  
   
SHORT TERM
 
TONIGHT AND FRIDAY  
ISSUED AT 232 PM CST THU DEC 8 2022  
 
MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES ARE EXPECTED THIS EVENING, SAVE FOR SOME  
LINGERING CLOUDS NEAR THE LAKESHORE COUNTIES. LATER THIS EVENING  
CLOUDS WILL INCREASE FROM SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST AS A WEAL LOW  
PRESSURE SYSTEM APPROACHES SOUTHERN IOWA. DESPITE THE INCREASE IN  
CLOUDS, PRECIPITATION FROM THIS SYSTEM LOOK TO HOLD OFF UNTIL  
FRIDAY AS DRY AIR CONTINUES TO FEED IN FROM THE EAST FROM A HIGH  
PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER SOUTHERN CANADA. LOWS TONIGHT ARE EXPECTED TO  
FALL TO 10 TO 15 ACROSS THE NORTH, WITH MIDDLE 20S ACROSS EAST-  
CENTRAL WISCONSIN AND UPPER 20S NEAR THE LAKESHORE.  
 
THE AFOREMENTIONED LOW WILL CONTINUE EAST THROUGH ILLINOIS ON  
FRIDAY, BRINGING A SWATH OF SNOW THROUGH THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES  
REGION AS IT TRACKS TO THE SOUTH. RECENT MODEL RUNS HAVE TRENDED  
MOST OF THE PRECIPITATION A BIT FURTHER SOUTH THIS RUN, WITH THE  
BEST SNOWFALL TOTALS ACROSS SOUTHERN WISCONSIN. IN ADDITION, THE  
AFOREMENTIONED HIGH CONTINUES TO PUMP DRY AIR INTO THE REGION ON  
EASTERLY WINDS, WHICH WILL ALSO LIMIT SNOWFALL TOTALS. SNOWFALL  
AMOUNTS THIS RUN LOOK TO BE LESS THAN AN INCH ACROSS CENTRAL AND  
EAST-CENTRAL WISCONSIN, WITH AROUND AN INCH POSSIBLE ACROSS  
SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF WOOD AND WAUSHARA COUNTIES. ANY SHIFT IN THE  
TRACK TO THE NORTH WOULD RAISE SNOWFALL TOTALS WHILE A SHIFT TO  
THE SOUTH WOULD LOWER THEM EVEN FURTHER; HOWEVER, THE DRY AIR FROM  
THE HIGH TO THE NORTH SUGGESTS LOWER AMOUNTS ARE THE MOST LIKELY  
SCENARIO. HIGHS ON FRIDAY ARE EXPECTED TO RANGE FROM AROUND 30  
ACROSS THE NORTH, TO THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 30S ACROSS CENTRAL AND  
EAST-CENTRAL WISCONSIN.  
   
LONG TERM
 
FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY  
ISSUED AT 232 PM CST THU DEC 8 2022  
 
MAIN FORECAST ISSUES HAVE TO DEAL WITH A WEAK SYSTEM LATE FRIDAY  
NIGHT INTO SATURDAY EVENING, THEN A MUCH STRONGER SYSTEM TOWARD  
THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.  
 
PROGRESSIVE MEAN FLOW TO CONTINUE INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK BEFORE A  
LONGWAVE TROUGH/CLOSED UPPER LOW SETTLES OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS  
WITH OTHER CLOSED LOWS OVER THE EASTERN PACIFIC AND CANADIAN  
MARITIMES. THE END RESULT WILL BE A BLOCKY MEAN FLOW WHICH WILL  
SLOW MOVEMENTS OF SYSTEMS. THE CENTRAL PLAINS SYSTEM WILL IMPACT  
NORTHEAST WI FROM TUESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH AT LEAST THURSDAY  
NIGHT WITH A MIX OF PRECIPITATION TYPES AND GUSTY WINDS AT TIMES.  
TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN ABOVE NORMAL THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT  
WEEK.  
 
FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY...  
THERE IS A CHANCE FOR LIGHT SNOW TO LINGER OVER EAST-CENTRAL WI  
INTO FRIDAY EVENING AS THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH HEADS TOWARD THE  
EASTERN GREAT LAKES. OTHERWISE, MAINLY CLOUDY SKIES ARE EXPECTED  
FRIDAY NIGHT WITH A SLIGHT CHANCE OF LIGHT SNOW OR PATCHY FREEZING  
DRIZZLE MOVING INTO CENTRAL WI TOWARD DAYBREAK AS WEAK WAA  
DEVELOPS AHEAD OF THE NEXT SHORTWAVE TROUGH LOCATED OVER THE  
NORTHERN PLAINS. MIN TEMPERATURES TO RANGE FROM THE LOWER TO  
MIDDLE 20S NORTH, UPPER 20S TO AROUND 30 DEGREES SOUTH. THIS  
SHORTWAVE TROUGH IS FORECAST TO SWING INTO THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES  
REGION BY SATURDAY AFTERNOON. THERE IS MODEST LEVELS OF BOTH Q-G  
AND FGEN FORCING, BUT MOISTURE IS RATHER LIMITED AS GULF MOISTURE  
IS CUT-OFF BY A FRONTAL BOUNDARY DRAPED OVER THE OZARKS/TN VALLEY.  
PRECIPITATION CHANCES TO GRADUALLY INCREASE SATURDAY MORNING OVER  
CENTRAL WI, THEN SPREAD INTO EASTERN WI IN THE AFTERNOON.  
PRECIPITATION TYPE IS ANOTHER ISSUE AS SOME INITIAL DRY AIR ALOFT  
MAY ALLOW FOR FREEZING DRIZZLE TO MIX WITH ANY LIGHT SNOW OVER  
CENTRAL WI BEFORE TURNING TO ALL SNOW NORTH-CENTRAL AND A  
RAIN/SNOW MIX OVER PARTS OF CENTRAL WI. OVER EASTERN WI,  
TEMPERATURES MAY WARM ENOUGH TO HAVE A RAIN/SNOW MIX. SPEAKING OF  
TEMPERATURES, READINGS SHOULD REACH THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 30S NORTH,  
MIDDLE TO UPPER 30S SOUTH.  
 
SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY...  
ANY MIXED PRECIPITATION OVER EASTERN WI WILL TRANSITION TO ALL  
SNOW SATURDAY EVENING AS TEMPERATURES COOL. HIGHER POPS ALSO  
PLACED OVER EASTERN WI SATURDAY EVENING WITH THE SNOW GRADUALLY  
ENDING FROM WEST TO EAST LATER SATURDAY NIGHT. WHEN ALL IS SAID  
AND DONE, MOST OF NORTHEAST WI TO RECEIVE ONE-HALF TO ONE INCH OF  
SNOW. MIN TEMPERATURES SATURDAY NIGHT TO RANGE FROM THE LOWER TO  
MIDDLE 20S NORTH, MAINLY UPPER 20S SOUTH. A WEAK AREA OF HIGH  
PRESSURE IS FORECAST TO MOVE INTO THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES ON  
SUNDAY AND TRY TO BRING AT LEAST SOME FILTERED SUNSHINE TO  
NORTHEAST WI. UNDER A GENERALLY LIGHT NORTH-NORTHWEST WIND, MAX  
TEMPERATURES SUNDAY SHOULD BE IN THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 30S NORTH,  
MIDDLE 30S TO AROUND 40 DEGREES SOUTH.  
 
SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY...  
QUIET CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH MONDAY AS THE HIGH PRESSURE  
SLIDES TO OUR EAST. WINDS WILL GRADUALLY VEER TO THE EAST-  
SOUTHEAST BY MONDAY AFTERNOON WITH STILL A HEALTHY DOSE OF CLOUDS  
AROUND. LITTLE CHANGE IN TEMPERATURES ALOFT WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES  
FAIRLY CONSTANT WITH READINGS ON MONDAY AGAIN IN THE LOWER TO  
MIDDLE 30S NORTH, MIDDLE TO UPPER 30S SOUTH.  
 
MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY...  
ATTENTION TURNS TO THE CENTRAL PLAINS WHERE A STRENGTHENING  
SURFACE LOW TO BE SITUATED AND A MID-LEVEL CLOSED SYSTEM TO  
ESSENTIALLY BECOME VERTICALLY STACKED. WHILE PRECIPITATION TO  
BECOME WIDESPREAD FROM THE GULF COAST STATES THROUGH THE MIDWEST,  
TO THE NORTHERN PLAINS ON TUESDAY, STRONG HIGH PRESSURE NEAR  
HUDSON BAY TO FUNNEL DRIER AIR INTO THE GREAT LAKES AND INITIALLY  
IMPEDE THE EASTERN PROGRESSION OF PRECIPITATION. PREFER TO BACK  
OFF ON POPS FROM THE PREVIOUS FORECAST WITH CHANCE OPS ARRIVING  
MAINLY FOR TUESDAY AFTERNOON. MAX TEMPERATURES FOR TUESDAY TO BE  
IN THE MIDDLE TO UPPER 30S NORTH, UPPER 30S TO AROUND 40 DEGREES  
SOUTH.  
 
TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY...  
AS THE SYSTEM CONTINUES TO SPIN OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS TUESDAY  
NIGHT, DEEPER GULF MOISTURE TO PUSH INTO WI AND OVERCOME THE DRY  
AIR TO ALLOW PRECIPITATION TO OVERSPREAD NORTHEAST WI.  
PRECIPITATION TYPE WILL BE A MAJOR ISSUE, ESPECIALLY OVER CENTRAL/  
FAR NORTHEAST WI WHERE A WINTRY MIX MAY OCCUR. NORTHERN WI SHOULD  
BE MAINLY ALL SNOW, WHILE EAST-CENTRAL WI TO MAINLY BE LIGHT RAIN  
WITH A LITTLE SNOW MIXED IN. SOME OF THIS PRECIPITATION MAY BE  
MODERATE TO HEAVY AT TIMES AS MODELS INDICATE PW VALUES PUSHING  
200 PERCENT OF NORMAL. THERE WILL ALSO BE A WIND FACTOR AS GUSTS  
COULD APPROACH 30 TO 40 MPH AT TIMES. ON WEDNESDAY, MIXED  
PRECIPITATION WILL CONTINUE OVER THE FORECAST AREA, BUT THERE ARE  
QUESTIONS AS TO WHETHER A DRY SLOT WILL ROTATE INTO SOUTHERN  
SECTIONS OF THE GREAT LAKES IN THE AFTERNOON. FOR NOW, HAVE KEPT  
POPS FAIRLY HIGH WITH MAX TEMPERATURES IN THE MIDDLE TO UPPER 30S  
NORTH, UPPER 30S TO LOWER 40S SOUTH.  
 
WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY...  
THE SYSTEM IS PROGGED TO GRADUALLY WEAKEN AS IT TRACK EASTWARD  
TOWARD SOUTHERN SECTIONS OF THE GREAT LAKES ON THURSDAY. MIXED  
PRECIPITATION TO CONTINUE WEDNESDAY NIGHT, THEN TRANSITION MORE TO  
SNOW ON THURSDAY AS COLDER AIR WRAPS INTO THE AREA. A STORM TO  
KEEP AN EYE ON IN THE COMING DAYS. MAX TEMPERATURES THURSDAY TO BE  
IN THE LOWER 30S NORTH-CENTRAL WI, MIDDLE 30S ELSEWHERE.  

 
   
AVIATION
 
FOR 00Z TAF ISSUANCE  
ISSUED AT 606 PM CST THU DEC 8 2022  
 
GOOD AVIATION WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE VAST  
MAJORITY OF THE AREA THIS EVENING, THOUGH SOME (MVFR) SC OFF LAKE  
MICHIGAN WILL AFFECT THE KMTW AREA AT TIMES. MID-CLOUDS WILL  
OVERSPREAD THE AREA LATER TONIGHT, THEN CIGS WILL LOWER TO MVFR  
TOMORROW AS A BAND OF SNOW SPREADS ACROSS MAINLY THE SOUTHERN PART  
OF THE AREA. SOME IFR CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE IN THE MID-DAY AND  
AFTERNOON HOURS AS THE MOST PERSISTENT PRECIPITATION MOVES  
THROUGH.  

 
   
GRB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
 
 
NONE.  

 
 

 
 
SHORT TERM.....KURIMSKI  
LONG TERM......KALLAS  
AVIATION.......SKOWRONSKI  
 
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