788
FXUS63 KGRB 271925
AFDGRB
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREEN BAY WI
225 PM CDT MON APR 27 2026
FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR ROUTINE AFTERNOON FORECAST ISSUANCE
KEY MESSAGES
- THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS, GENERALLY
ALONG AND SOUTH OF LINE FROM MARSHFIELD TO GREEN BAY TO KEWAUNEE
THROUGH EARLY EVENING. THE MAIN RISK WOULD BE STRONG DAMAGING
WINDS AND HAIL.
- MODERATE TO HEAVY RAIN WITH EMBEDDED STORMS WILL COME TO AN END
TONIGHT. RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 0.25-1.00" ARE EXPECTED ACROSS
MUCH OF THE AREA.
- RIVERS ARE EXPECTED TO RISE THIS WEEK AFTER A ROUND OF MODERATE
TO HEAVY RAIN TODAY. RIVER FLOODING CONTINUES AT SOME LOCATIONS
ON THE MENOMINEE, WOLF AND FOX RIVERS.
- MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS WITH TEMPERATURES AT OR SLIGHTLY BELOW
NORMAL WILL CONTINUE INTO THE WEEKEND.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 224 PM CDT MON APR 27 2026
A BAND OF SHOWERS MOVED INTO CENTRAL AND NORTHEAST WI THIS
AFTERNOON. THE AREAL COVERAGE OF SHOWERS WERE DECREASING BASED ON
RADAR. THE BACK EDGE OF THE RAIN WAS DRYING UP, A SIGNAL THAT
THERE COULD BE A PERIOD OF GUSTY (WAKE LOW) WINDS AFTER THE
SHOWERS MOVED OUT OF THE AREA. THIS WAS THE CASE AS WISCONSIN
RAPIDS GUSTED TO 44 MPH AND OSHKOSH 41 MPH.
THIS ROUND OF SHOWERS, GUSTY COOL SOUTHEAST WINDS AND LITTLE
SUNSHINE IN ADVANCE OF THE COLD FRONT LATER TONIGHT GIVES FOR
VERY LOW CONFIDENCE IN SEVERE STORMS. LOOKING INTO IOWA,
STORMS FORMED ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE COLD WHERE SURFACE BASED
CAPES OF 1,000-2,000 J/KG WERE NOTED. HOWEVER, RADAR TRENDS
INDICATED THE STORMS ARE STRUGGLING. THE LATEST STORM
PREDICTION CENTER DAY 1 OUTLOOK HAS SHIFTED THE MARGINAL RISK
SOUTHWARD FROM THIS MORNING, NOW ALONG AND SOUTH OF A MOSINEE
TO GREEN BAY TO KEWAUNEE LINE. BASED ON THE LATEST TRENDS,
THE RISK OF SEVERE WEATHER IS VERY LOW.
AFTER THE FRONT PASSES ACROSS THE AREA THIS EVENING, ISOLATED TO
SCATTERED SHOWERS WILL LINGER INTO EARLY TUESDAY MORNING BEFORE
ENDING BY SUNRISE. EXCEPT FOR A SMALL CHANCE OF RAIN WEDNESDAY,
FAIRLY TRANQUIL CONDITIONS SHOULD PREVAIL INTO THE WEEKEND.
WITH TEMPERATURES AT OR BELOW NORMAL.
AVIATION
FOR 18Z TAF ISSUANCE
ISSUED AT 1135 AM CDT MON APR 27 2026
SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA
DURING THE EARLY TO MID AFTERNOON, THROUGH 21Z, BEFORE THE RISK OF
STRONGER STORMS ARRIVE ALONG AND SOUTH OF HIGHWAY 29 LATE THIS
AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING. SOME OF THE STRONGER STORMS WILL BE
CAPABLE OF STRONG GUSTY WINDS. THE RISK OF THUNDERSTORMS WILL
COME TO AN END BY 03Z TUE. CIGS WILL FALL INTO THE MVFR OR IFR
CATEGORY ALONG AND BEHIND THE FRONT. ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS
ARE POSSIBLE BEHIND THE FRONT, WITH THE SHOWERS ENDING LATE
TONIGHT. CIGS WILL IMPROVE ON TUESDAY, REACHING THE VFR CATEGORY
BY LATE MORNING OR EARLY AFTERNOON. WEST/NORTHWEST WINDS WILL
STILL GUST TO 25 TO 30 KNOTS TUESDAY MORNING, THEN GRADUALLY RELAX
DURING THE AFTERNOON.
HYDROLOGY
ISSUED AT 224 PM CDT MON APR 27 2026
MINOR FLOODING CONTINUES ON SEVERAL RIVERS, NAMELY THE WOLF,
MENOMINEE, AND THE FOX RIVER AT OSHKOSH. WIDESPREAD RAINFALL
SHOULD END UP A LITTLE LOWER THAN EXPECTED, GENERALLY BETWEEN
0.25-1.00".
PER RFC FORECASTS AND HEFS GUIDANCE, SEVERAL POINTS ALONG THE
MENOMINEE RIVER COULD RETURN TO MODERATE FLOOD STAGE; HOWEVER,
PROBABILITIES OF REACHING MODERATE HAVE FALLEN TO LESS THAN 10%.
THE WOLF RIVER IS EXPECTED TO STAY BELOW MODERATE FLOOD STAGE
DURING THIS EVENT, WITH SOME POINTS RISING BACK TO MINOR FLOOD
STAGE. LEVELS ON THE LAKE WINNEBAGO SYSTEM CONTINUE TO RISE DUE
TO INFLOW FROM THE WOLF AND FOX RIVERS, WITH MINOR FLOODING
ALREADY OCCURRING FROM LAKE POYGAN TO WINNEBAGO AND MINOR
FLOODING FORECAST TO OCCUR THROUGH THE WEEKEND. THOSE LIVING NEAR
RIVERS OR STREAMS SHOULD CONTINUE TO MONITOR THE LATEST FLOOD
WARNINGS AND STATEMENTS FROM THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN
GREEN BAY.
GRB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
DISCUSSION.....ECKBERG
AVIATION.......ECKBERG
HYDROLOGY......ECKBERG
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