415
FXUS63 KGRB 291926
AFDGRB
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREEN BAY WI
226 PM CDT WED APR 29 2026
FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR ROUTINE AFTERNOON FORECAST ISSUANCE
KEY MESSAGES
- LIGHT RAIN ENDS FROM WEST TO EAST DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON AND
EVENING. MORE SHOWERS EXPECTED ON THURSDAY AND POSSIBLY FRIDAY.
- FROST ADVISORY FOR CENTRAL WI LATE TONIGHTINTO EARLY THURSDAY.
ADDITIONAL FROST AND FREEZE HEADLINES EXPECTED OVER CENTRAL AND
EAST CENTRAL WI THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY NIGHT.
- MINOR FLOODING PERSISTS ON THE WOLF RIVER AND WINNEBAGO SYSTEM.
WATER LEVELS SHOULD GRADUALLY RECEDE AS THE WEEK PROGRESSES DUE
TO A LACK OF SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL.
- BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES EXPECTED THROUGH MOST OF THE PERIOD.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 225 PM CDT WED APR 29 2026
WIDESPREAD LIGHT RAIN CONTINUES TO DEVELOP ACROSS MOST OF THE
FORECAST AREA, IN RESPONSE TO QG FORCING AHEAD OF A SHARP
SHORT-WAVE TROUGH OVER WESTERN WI. THE RAIN AND CLOUDS WERE
HOLDING TEMPERATURES IN THE 40S. THE RAIN WILL GRADUALLY TAPER
OFF FROM WEST TO EAST DURING THE REST OF THE AFTERNOON AND
EVENING, FOLLOWED BY PARTIAL CLEARING OVERNIGHT. PARTLY CLOUDY
SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS WILL ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO DROP INTO THE
MIDDLE 20S TO MIDDLE 30S, WHICH WILL ALLOW FROST TO DEVELOP
IN MOST AREAS LATE TONIGHT.
FROST HEADLINES: FROST AND FREEZE HEADLINES WERE STARTED UP ALONG
AND SOUTH OF HWY 29, PLUS DOOR COUNTY, TODAY. WITHIN THAT REGION,
TEMPERATURES DROPPING INTO THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 30S IN CENTRAL WI
LATE TONIGHT SHOULD LEAD TO WIDESPREAD FROST, SO A FROST ADVISORY
HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR MARATHON, SHAWANO, WOOD, PORTAGE, WAUPACA AND
WAUSHARA COUNTIES FROM MIDNIGHT THROUGH 8 AM THURSDAY. ONLY PATCHY
FROST IS EXPECTED IN THE FOX VALLEY AND LAKESHORE AREAS, SO HAVE
OPTED FOR NO HEADLINES THERE TONIGHT. POTENTIAL FOR FROST/FREEZE
HEADLINES INCREASES THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY NIGHT ACROSS ALL OF
CENTRAL WI, THE FOX VALLEY AND LAKESHORE AREAS.
PRECIPITATION CHANCES: PERSISTENT NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL BRING
A SERIES OF SHORT-WAVES THROUGH THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES REGION
THROUGH THE END OF THE WORK WEEK. A SHORT-WAVE IS EXPECTED TO
IMPACT THE FORECAST AREA DURING THE LATE MORNING AND AFTERNOON ON
THURSDAY, AND POPS HAVE BEEN INCREASED A BIT FROM PREVIOUS
FORECASTS. IN ADDITION, A SMALL CHANCE OF SHOWERS HAS BEEN ADDED
TO EASTERN WI ON FRIDAY AFTERNOON, AS YET ANOTHER WAVE PASSES
THROUGH. GIVEN CAPE OF <100 J/KG AND UNIMPRESSIVE MID-LEVEL LAPSE
RATES, WE HAVE REMOVED ANY MENTION OF THUNDERSTORMS DURING THIS
PERIOD.
WEAK HIGH PRESSURE ATTEMPTS TO BUILD INTO THE REGION FRIDAY NIGHT
INTO SATURDAY NIGHT, SO THE FIRST HALF OF THE WEEKEND LOOKS NICE.
WAA FOLLOWED BY A WEAK COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE WILL BRING A CHANCE OF
SHOWERS ON SUNDAY.
STRONGER COLD FRONTAL PASSAGES ARE EXPECTED MONDAY AND AGAIN
TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY, ALONG WITH A GOOD CHANCE OF SHOWERS.
TEMPERATURES: GIVEN A PERSISTENT FLOW OF CANADIAN AIR INTO THE
REGION, IT IS NOT A SURPRISE THAT TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN BELOW
NORMAL FOR MUCH OF THE WEEK. SOME MODERATION IN TEMPERATURES (TO
NEAR NORMAL) SHOULD OCCUR AHEAD OF EACH OF THE COLD FRONTS,
BUT REINFORCING SHOTS OF CANADIAN AIR WILL FOLLOW THE COLD
FRONTAL PASSAGES DURING THE EARLY TO MID PART OF NEXT WEEK.
AVIATION
FOR 18Z TAF ISSUANCE
ISSUED AT 1228 PM CDT WED APR 29 2026
A SHORT-WAVE TROUGH WILL BRING WIDESPREAD LIGHT SHOWERS TO THE
REGION THIS AFTERNOON. THESE WILL GRADUALLY END FROM WEST TO EAST
IN THE LATE AFTERNOON AND EVENING. MVFR AND LOCALIZED IFR
CONDITIONS WILL ACCOMPANY THE SHOWERS, BUT CONDITIONS WILL
GRADUALLY IMPROVE AS THE RAIN TAPERS OFF. PARTIAL CLEARING IS
EXPECT TONIGHT, BUT CLOUDS WILL INCREASE AGAIN LATE THURSDAY
MORNING AS ANOTHER SHORT-WAVE ARRIVES. THIS WAVE WILL BRING
ANOTHER ROUND OF SCATTERED SHOWERS, BUT CONDITIONS SHOULD REMAIN
VFR AT MOST LOCATIONS.
GRB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
FROST ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 8 AM CDT THURSDAY FOR
WIZ030-031-035>037-045.
DISCUSSION.....KIECKBUSCH
AVIATION.......KIECKBUSCH
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