812
FXUS63 KGRB 020801
AFDGRB
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREEN BAY WI
301 AM CDT THU JUL 2 2026
FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR ROUTINE MORNING FORECAST ISSUANCE
KEY MESSAGES
- PEAK AFTERNOON HEAT INDICES WILL RANGE FROM THE MID TO UPPER 90S
FOR EAST-CENTRAL AND FAR NORTHEAST WISCONSIN TODAY. HEAT INDICES
GRADUALLY DECREASE INTO THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND.
- PERIODIC CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THE
HOLIDAY WEEKEND. A FEW STORMS MAY BECOME STRONG TO SEVERE LATE
THIS AFTERNOON INTO LATE THIS EVENING CAPABLE OF PRODUCING
DAMAGING WINDS AND HAIL.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 301 AM CDT THU JUL 2 2026
PRECIPITATION/THUNDER CHANCES...A MID-LEVEL SHORTWAVE AND STATIONARY
BOUNDARY LYING ACROSS THE REGION EARLY THIS MORNING HAS BEEN
PRODUCING A LARGE AREA OF RAIN WITH EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS.
UPSTREAM, ADDITIONAL THUNDERSTORMS HAVE FIRED ALONG THE BOUNDARY
ACROSS WEST-CENTRAL WI. THESE THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE TRACK
EASTWARD EARLY THIS MORNING, IMPACTING LOCATIONS ALONG THE BORDER OF
OUR FORECAST AREA AND NWS MILWAUKEE'S FORECAST AREA, MAINLY WITH
HEAVY RAINFALL. WITH PWATS STILL AROUND 2 INCHES AND ADDITIONAL
RAINFALL OF 1-3 INCHES STILL POSSIBLE WITH THESE STORMS, DIDN'T MAKE
ANY CHANGES TO THE FLOOD WATCH THAT REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 10 AM
FOR CENTRAL AND EAST-CENTRAL WI. THESE SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL
GRADUALLY COME TO AN END/MOVE SOUTH OF THE AREA LATER THIS MORNING.
FOR THE REMAINDER OF TODAY THROUGH THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND, THE FORECAST
AREA WILL REMAIN UNDER A ZONAL FLOW, BUT SEVERAL EMBEDDED MID-LEVEL
SHORTWAVES (SOME WEAK, SOME STRONGER) ARE EXPECTED TO BRING
ADDITIONAL ROUNDS OF SHOWERS AND STORMS AT TIMES. FOR THE REMAINDER
OF TODAY, MOST GUIDANCE INDICATES CONDITIONS WILL BE DRY WITH THE
BOUNDARY STAYING JUST SOUTH OF THE FORECAST AREA. HOWEVER, CANNOT
RULE OUT THE POTENTIAL FOR THE BOUNDARY TO SIT SOMEWHERE ALONG OUR
SOUTHERN FORECAST AREA BORDER, KEEPING THE POTENTIAL FOR STRONG TO
SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN PLACE WITH 1000-2000 J/KG OF CAPE AND DEEP-
LAYER SHEAR OF 30-40 KTS DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON INTO THE LATE
EVENING. IF STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS DEVELOP, DAMAGING WINDS, HAIL,
AND HEAVY RAINFALL WILL BE THE MAIN CONCERNS. MODELS HAVE THE NEXT
SHORTWAVE/RIPPLE BRINGING SHOWERS AND STORMS TO THE AREA SOMETIME ON
FRIDAY, WITH SLIGHTLY BETTER AGREEMENT FRIDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING.
DEPENDING ON IF THESE STORMS DEVELOP OVER THE AREA, A FEW MAY BE
STRONG OR SEVERE WITH DAMAGING WINDS BEING THE MAIN CONCERN. MODELS
CONTINUE TO INDICATE A SLIGHTLY STRONGER SHORTWAVE MOVING ACROSS THE
AREA SOMETIME BETWEEN LATE FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY. WHILE THERE
IS AGREEMENT FOR THIS SYSTEM TO BRING HEAVY RAINFALL, THE SEVERE
POTENTIAL WILL DEPEND ON THE EXACT TIMING AND PLACEMENT OF THE
SURFACE LOW ASSOCIATED WITH IT.
BEYOND SUNDAY GLOBAL ENSEMBLES AND ML MODELS CONTINUE TO TREND
TOWARD A DRIER PERIOD THROUGH THE FIRST HALF OF NEXT WEEK.
TEMPERATURES...ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN IN PLACE
THROUGH AT LEAST FRIDAY WITH HIGHS IN THE MID TO UPPER 80S TODAY AND
LOW TO MID 80S ON FRIDAY, AND DEW POINTS STILL RANGING FROM THE MID
60S TO MID 70S. A FEW SPOTS MAY NEAR 100 DEGREE HEAT INDEX VALUES
TODAY, BUT GIVEN HOW SPARSE THIS IS FORECAST, DECIDED NOT TO ISSUE
ANY HEAT HEADLINES. WITH TEMPERATURES AND DEW POINTS SLIGHTLY
DECREASING FOR FRIDAY THROUGH THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND, WILL CONTINUE TO
MONITOR THE NEED FOR ADDITIONAL HEAT HEADLINES, BUT THE LIKELIHOOD
IS DECREASING.
AVIATION
FOR 06Z TAF ISSUANCE
ISSUED AT 1246 AM CDT THU JUL 2 2026
A COLD FRONT SAGGING SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE AREA TONIGHT, HAS
TOUCHED OFF AN AREA OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. THESE STORMS
WILL LINGER THROUGH THE FIRST COUPLE HOURS OF THIS TAF ISSUANCE
(MAINLY AT ATW, GRB, MTW), WHILE GRADUALLY WEAKENING AS THEY SAG
TO THE SOUTHEAST THROUGH 08Z/02. VISIBILITY WILL BE REDUCED IN THE
HEAVIEST RAINFALL WITH A BRIEF LOWER CEILING AROUND 3KFT POSSIBLE.
SHOWERS WILL LINGER FOR THE FIRST COUPLE HOURS AT AUW, CWA BEFORE
QUICKLY DIMINISHING, WHILE RHI WILL REMAIN FAR ENOUGH NORTH OF THE
FRONT TO STAY MAINLY DRY. VFR/IFR CEILINGS MAY DEVELOP OVERNIGHT
AT THOSE LOCATIONS AS WELL. IN FACT, THE PROBABILITIES ARE AROUND
50-60% THAT RHI DROPS BELOW 2KFT AND CLOSER TO 40% AT AUW AND CWA.
THE BEST CHANCE OF SEEING VISIBILITIES DROP TO OR BELOW 5 MILES
WILL BE AT RHI. IMPROVING CONDITIONS ARE THEN EXPECTED THROUGH THE
DAY THURSDAY.
GRB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 10 AM CDT THIS MORNING FOR WIZ020-030-031-
035>040-045-048>050-074.
DISCUSSION.....KRUK
AVIATION.......COOLEY
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