640
FXUS63 KGRB 251822
AFDGRB
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREEN BAY WI
1222 PM CST WED FEB 25 2026
FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR ROUTINE AFTERNOON FORECAST ISSUANCE
KEY MESSAGES
- AROUND A HALF INCH OF SNOW ACCUMULATION (20-40% NEAR U.P.
BORDER) IS EXPECTED ACROSS FAR NORTHERN WISCONSIN FROM EARLY
THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY AFTERNOON. THIS MAY LEAD TO
SLIPPERY STRETCHES ON SOME ROADS, PRIMARILY NORTH OF A LINE FROM
MERRILL TO STURGEON BAY.
- A COOLING TREND WILL ARRIVE THIS WEEKEND BEHIND A DRY COLD
FRONT. HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE 40S ON FRIDAY WILL FALL BACK
INTO THE TEENS AND LOWER 20S BY SUNDAY.
- THERE IS A 30-50 PERCENT CHANCE FOR LIGHT SNOW ON SATURDAY,
MAINLY OVER CENTRAL AND EAST-CENTRAL WISCONSIN. CONFIDENCE IN
SNOWFALL AMOUNTS IS LOW DUE TO DRY ARCTIC AIR IN PLACE.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 1219 PM CST WED FEB 25 2026
THE LATEST RAP ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE/RADAR IMAGERY SHOW ARCTIC HIGH
PRESSURE CENTERED OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS AND COLD ADVECTION CONTINUING
DOWNSTREAM OVER WISCONSIN. SCATTERED FLURRIES HAVE DIMINISHED BY MIDDAY,
EXCEPT OVER THE VILAS COUNTY SNOWBELT REGION DUE TO LINGERING LAKE EFFECT.
EXPECT SCATTERED CLOUDS TO DEVELOP WITH STEEPENING LOW LEVEL LAPSE
RATES (MORE WIDESPREAD OVER FAR NORTHERN WI), OTHERWISE EXPECT PARTLY
CLOUDY TO MOSTLY SUNNY CONDITIONS WITH DIMINISHING WINDS FOR THE REST
OF THE AFTERNOON. LOOKING UPSTREAM, A WEAK CLIPPER SYSTEM IS MOVING
THROUGH THE CANADIAN PRAIRIES, WHICH WILL BE THE PRIMARY INFLUENCER
FOR OUR WEATHER OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE REGION TONIGHT WITH MID AND HIGH CLOUDS
INCREASING DURING THE EVENING. A SWATH OF LIGHT SNOW IS FORECAST TO DROP
SOUTHEAST INTO NORTHERN MINNESOTA LATE TONIGHT IN A REGION OF INCREASING
WARM ADVECTION IN THE LOW TO MID LEVELS. THIS LIGHT SNOW WILL BE APPROACHING
NORTH-CENTRAL WISCONSIN AROUND SUNRISE. LOW LEVEL SATURATION WILL MOVE
ACROSS NORTHERN WISCONSIN ON THURSDAY MORNING AND LINGER ACROSS NORTHEAST
WISCONSIN INTO THE AFTERNOON. THEREFORE, HAVE INCREASED SNOW CHANCES
INTO THE LIKELY RANGE FOR THURSDAY MORNING. WHILE FLURRIES COULD
REACH CENTRAL AND EAST-CENTRAL WISCONSIN, LIFT IS SIGNIFICANTLY
WEAKER FARTHER SOUTH AND NO IMPACTS ARE ANTICIPATED THERE. AROUND
A HALF INCH OF ACCUMULATIONS CAN BE EXPECTED ACROSS FAR NORTHERN
WISCONSIN, WITH PERHAPS UP TO AN INCH IN ISOLATED SPOTS. SOUTHWEST
WINDS WILL BRING IN WARMER AIR, WITH HIGHS RETURNING TO THE 30S
AT MOST LOCATIONS.
THE LONG TERM PERIOD BEGINS WITH BROAD TROUGHING ACROSS THE EASTERN HALF OF
THE COUNTRY AND RIDGING ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST. A STRONG CLIPPER WILL PASS
OVER NORTHERN ONTARIO ON FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT, WHICH WILL SEND A COLD
FRONT ACROSS THE REGION. THIS FRONT WILL LACK MOISTURE AND IS EXPECTED TO
MOVE THROUGH DRY, THOUGH BREEZY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP WITH
GUSTS TO 30 MPH. A TIGHT THERMAL GRADIENT WILL THEN SETUP UP ALOFT BEHIND
THE BOUNDARY ON SATURDAY. WITH ADDITIONAL CLIPPER ENERGY AUGMENTED BY THE
LEFT FRONT QUAD OF A JET STREAK, A BAND OF LIGHT SNOW IS EXPECTED TO
DEVELOP FROM THE NORTHERN PLAINS TO THE SOUTHERN GREAT LAKES. CENTRAL AND
EAST-CENTRAL WISCONSIN WILL BE ON THE NORTHERN FRINGES OF THIS
FRONTOGENETICAL SNOW BAND. VERY DRY AIR WILL EXIST IN THE ARCTIC AIRMASS
OVER NORTHERN WISCONSIN BY THIS POINT, LEADING TO A LOW CONFIDENCE
FORECAST FOR LIGHT SNOW CHANCES. CURRENT PROBABILITIES FOR AT LEAST A
DUSTING OF SNOW REMAIN IN THE 30-50 PERCENT RANGE ON SATURDAY FOR AREAS
SOUTH OF A MARSHFIELD TO GREEN BAY LINE.
HIGH PRESSURE AND MUCH COLDER AIR WILL SETTLE OVER THE REGION FOR THE
SECOND HALF OF THE WEEKEND. HIGHS ON SUNDAY WILL ONLY REACH THE TEENS
TO MIDDLE 20S, WHICH IS ABOUT 10 TO 15 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL FOR EARLY
MARCH. ANOTHER CLIPPER SYSTEM COULD BRING A CHANCE OF LIGHT SNOW (20-30
PERCENT) ON TUESDAY AS THE HIGH DEPARTS AND RETURN FLOW COMMENCES.
HOWEVER, MODEL SPREAD REGARDING THE TRACK AND TIMING OF THIS SYSTEM IS
RELATIVELY LARGE, KEEPING CONFIDENCE LOW AT THIS TIME RANGE.
AVIATION
FOR 18Z TAF ISSUANCE
ISSUED AT 1107 AM CST WED FEB 25 2026
SCATTERED MVFR TO LOW-END VFR FAIR WEATHER CLOUDS ARE EXPECTED
THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. BROKEN MVFR CEILINGS AND LIGHT FLURRIES
WILL BE MORE WIDESPREAD NEAR THE LAKE SUPERIOR BORDER AND VILAS
COUNTY, OCCASIONALLY IMPACTING KRHI AND AREAS NEAR KIMT. GUSTY
NORTHWEST WINDS OF 20-25 KTS WILL GRADUALLY SUBSIDE THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON, BECOMING 5 KTS OR LESS TONIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS
INTO THE REGION.
MID AND HIGH CLOUDS INCREASE THIS EVENING, THOUGH SATURATION WILL
STRUGGLE BELOW 10 KFT THROUGH 12Z THURSDAY. AFTER 12Z, BETTER
LOW-LEVEL SATURATION IN WARM ADVECTION WILL BRING A CHANCE OF
LIGHT SNOW TO FAR NORTHERN WISCONSIN. CONDITIONS AT KRHI ARE
EXPECTED TO DETERIORATE TO MVFR CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES BETWEEN
12-15Z IN LIGHT SNOW; A TEMPO GROUP WAS ADDED TO ADDRESS THIS. THE
CHANCE FOR MVFR CEILINGS WILL INCREASE ACROSS CENTRAL WISCONSIN
(KAUW/KCWA) DURING THE 15-18Z PERIOD. EASTERN WISCONSIN SITES
(KGRB/KATW/KMTW) SHOULD REMAIN MAINLY VFR. BRIEF LOW-LEVEL WIND
SHEAR IS POSSIBLE OVER CENTRAL AND NORTH-CENTRAL WISCONSIN
THURSDAY MORNING.
CONFIDENCE IS HIGH FOR VFR/MVFR CONDITIONS TODAY, BUT MEDIUM
REGARDING THE EXACT TIMING OF SNOW AND MVFR ARRIVAL THURSDAY
MORNING.
GRB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
DISCUSSION.....MPC
AVIATION.......MPC
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