184
FXUS63 KGRB 051114
AFDGRB
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREEN BAY WI
614 AM CDT TUE JUL 5 2022
UPDATED AVIATION PORTION FOR 12Z TAF ISSUANCE
SHORT TERM...TODAY...TONIGHT
AND WEDNESDAY
ISSUED AT 326 AM CDT TUE JUL 5 2022
THE MAIN FOCUS OF THE SHORT-TERM PORTION OF THE FORECAST WILL BE ON
THE POTENTIAL FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS TONIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY.
TODAY: THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY THAT PRODUCED THE WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ON MONDAY, WILL BE DRAPED ACROSS SOUTHERN WISCONSIN
THROUGH MUCH OF THE DAY. THE LACK OF ANY ADDITIONAL SHORTWAVE ENERGY
ACROSS NORTHEAST WISCONSIN, WILL KEEP MOST OF THE SHOWERS AND STORMS
FOCUSED TO THE SOUTH OF THE AREA. PLENTY OF LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE IN
PLACE WILL LIKELY LEAD TO LATE MORNING/AFTERNOON CU DEVELOPMENT AS
OVERNIGHT FOG/STRATUS LIFTS. OTHERWISE, HIGH TEMPERATURES ARE
EXPECTED TO BE IN THE 80 FOR MUCH OF THE AREA.
TONIGHT: HIGH PRESSURE WILL PUSH INTO THE AREA FROM THE NORTH
THROUGH MUCH OF THE NIGHT AS THE AFOREMENTIONED FRONTAL BOUNDARY
MEANDERS SLOWLY NORTHWARD. AT THE SAME TIME, THERE ARE SOME HINTS
THAT A SHORTWAVE MAY BRUSH JUST SOUTH OF THE AREA. THIS COULD BRING
A FEW SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO AREAS FROM AROUND WOOD COUNTY,
EASTWARD TO MANITOWOC COUNTY AND POINTS SOUTH. THE MAIN THREAT FROM
THESE SHOWERS AND STORMS WOULD BE THE POTENTIAL FOR HEAVY DOWNPOURS.
OTHERWISE, OVERNIGHT LOWS ARE FORECAST TO DROP INTO THE UPPER 50S TO
LOW 60S UNDER PARTLY TO MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES. SOME PATCHY FOG WILL BE
POSSIBLE AGAIN; HOWEVER, THE WIND WILL BE A LITTLE STRONGER
OVERNIGHT, LIKELY KEEPING VISIBILITY UP.
WEDNESDAY: THE AFOREMENTIONED SURFACE RIDGE WILL LINGER ACROSS THE
AREA THROUGH MUCH OF THE DAY WEDNESDAY, WHICH WILL KEEP MUCH OF THE
AREA DRY; HOWEVER, SOME LINGERING MORNING SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL BE
POSSIBLE EARLY IN THE DAY. OTHERWISE, NORTHEAST WI WILL BE BETWEEN
SYSTEMS THROUGH MUCH OF THE DAY, WITH THE NEXT SHORTWAVE APPROACHING
WEDNESDAY NIGHT. HIGHS ARE EXPECTED TO BE IN THE 70S.
LONG TERM
WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY
ISSUED AT 326 AM CDT TUE JUL 5 2022
TROUGH OVER THE WESTERN U.S. WILL WEAKEN/SHIFT NORTH THROUGH THE
PERIOD, WITH WEAK RIDGING ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS. THIS WILL
KEEP THE UPPER FLOW MAINLY OUT OF THE WEST/NORTHWEST ACROSS THE
GREAT LAKES. FORECAST CONCERNS WILL BE PINNING DOWN BEST CHANCES
FOR SHOWERS/STORMS AS LOCATION/TIMING OF FAST MOVING SHORTWAVES/
FRONTAL BOUNDARIES REMAINS CHALLENGING. TEMPS LOOK TO BE NEAR OR
SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL.
WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY...SURFACE BOUNDARY WILL REMAIN WELL
TO OUR SOUTH. POTENT SHORTWAVE WILL BE PASSING TO OUR SOUTH AS
WELL, WHERE THE MAJORITY OF THE STRONG/SEVERE STORM ACTIVITY WILL
BE. OUR AREA COULD BE GRAZED BY THE MAIN COMPLEX AND/OR SOME
SHOWERS ASSOCIATED WITH THE RRQ OF AN UPPER JET. THIS ACTIVITY
WILL END OVERNIGHT AND INTO THURSDAY MORNING. LOWS LOOK TO DROP
INTO THE 50S TO LOWER 60S. HIGHS LOOK TO BE IN THE UPPER 70S TO
LOWER 80S.
REST OF THE LONG TERM...CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE WILL PUSH OVER THE
GREAT LAKES LATE IN THE WEEK AND FOR THE FIRST HALF OF THE
WEEKEND. MODELS HINTING AT ANOTHER WEAK SHORTWAVE OR TWO PUSHING
ACROSS THE AREA ON THURSDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING AND FRIDAY, WITH
SOME MODELS SHOWING SOME LIGHT PRECIP ON THURSDAY. BUT WILL KEEP
THE DRY FORECAST GOING AS PLENTY OF DRY AIR IN PLACE. THE HIGH
PRESSURE MOVES OVERHEAD ON SATURDAY THEN SHIFTS EAST OF THE REGION
ON SUNDAY. RETURN FLOW WILL RAMP UP INTO MONDAY WITH ANOTHER
SHORTWAVE AND FRONTAL BOUNDARY FORECAST TO PUSH ACROSS THE AREA
SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY, BRINGING THE NEXT CHANCE FOR MORE
WIDESPREAD SHOWERS/STORMS.
AVIATION
FOR 12Z TAF ISSUANCE
ISSUED AT 614 AM CDT TUE JUL 5 2022
LOW CLOUDS AND SOME FOG EARLY THIS MORNING WILL GRADUALLY LIFT
THROUGH MID MORNING. AFTERNOON CU WILL LIKELY DEVELOP AS THE LOW-
LEVEL MOISTURE MIXES UP; HOWEVER, CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES WILL
IMPROVE FROM IFR TO MVFR/VFR THIS AFTERNOON. SOME SHOWERS AND A
STRAY STORM MAY BRUSH PAST THE CENTRAL AND EAST-CENTRAL WI TAF
SITES THIS EVENING, BUT CONFIDENCE IS LOW ENOUGH TO LEAVE OUT OF
THIS UPDATE.
GRB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
SHORT TERM.....COOLEY
LONG TERM......BERSCH
AVIATION.......COOLEY
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