185
FXUS63 KGRB 100341
AFDGRB
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREEN BAY WI
941 PM CST MON FEB 9 2026
UPDATED AVIATION PORTION FOR 06Z TAF ISSUANCE
UPDATE
ISSUED AT 724 PM CST MON FEB 9 2026
LIGHT PRECIPITATION IS REACHING THE GROUND AT SPOTS FROM EAGLE
RIVER AND MINOCQUA TO THE NORTHERN DOOR PENINSULA. GIVEN
TEMPERATURES AT OR JUST BELOW FREEZING, THE PRECIPITATION IS THE
FREEZING RAIN VARIETY. MINOR VISIBILITY REDUCTIONS ARE TAKING
PLACE SO SUSPECT LIGHT ACCUMULATIONS ARE OCCURRING. RECENTLY
UPDATED THE FORECAST AND ISSUED AN SPS FOR AREAS NOT IN THE
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FOR A LIGHT ICING/SLIPPERY SPOTS.
THE LIGHT PRECIPITATION IS PROGRESSIVE WITH SOME CAMS SHOWING THE
PRECIP DEPARTING NORTHEAST WISCONSIN BY 10 PM. IF THIS OCCURS,
THE WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY WILL LIKELY GET CANCELLED EARLY.
KEY MESSAGES
- THERE IS A 20 TO 50 PERCENT CHANCE OF A LIGHT GLAZE OF ICE OVER
NORTHERN WI THIS EVENING, ESPECIALLY OVER THE FAR NORTHEAST.
MIXED LIGHT FREEZING RAIN AND SLEET WILL TRANSITION TO LIGHT
SNOW OVERNIGHT. SLICK TO LOCALLY HAZARDOUS TRAVEL COULD DEVELOP
ON UNTREATED ROADS, ESPECIALLY OVER FAR NORTHEAST WI. A WINTER
WEATHER ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR MARINETTE AND DOOR
COUNTIES.
- MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS WITH SEASONABLY MILD TEMPERATURES
EXPECTED FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 249 PM CST MON FEB 9 2026
MID-LEVEL CLOUDS COVERED THE REGION THIS AFTERNOON. DESPITE RADAR
RETURNS EXTENDING FROM CENTRAL MN THROUGH NORTHERN WI, A DEEP
LAYER OF DRY AIR (PRONOUNCED DRY WEDGE SEEN BETWEEN 850-600 MB ON
THE 18Z GRB RAOB), NO PRECIPITATION WAS REACHING THE SURFACE.
MILD AIR HAS ARRIVED AS EXPECTED, WITH DAYTIME TEMPERATURES MAINLY
IN THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 30S.
TONIGHT/HEADLINE CHANGES: A CLIPPER SYSTEM WILL TRACK THROUGH
ONTARIO TONIGHT, AND PULL A COLD FRONT THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA
LATE TONIGHT. MODELS HAVE BACKED OFF ON PRECIPITATION DEVELOPMENT
LATE THIS AFTERNOON, AND QPF HAS DROPPED OFF ACROSS NORTHERN WI
TONIGHT. THE LATER ARRIVAL TIME OF THE PRECIPITATION WILL NARROW
THE WINDOW FOR FREEZING RAIN DEVELOPMENT THIS EVENING, AS THE
WARM LAYER ALOFT (INITIALLY +3 TO + 5 C) WILL BE WEAKENING/
ERODING. PROBABILISTIC FORECASTS FOR A LIGHT GLAZE OF ICE
HAVE DROPPED OFF CONSIDERABLY, AND ARE DOWN TO 20-50% ACROSS FAR
NORTHERN AND NE WI. MUCH OF THE WESTERN PORTION OF THE WINTER
WEATHER ADVISORY HAS BEEN CANCELLED, AS THE FAVORED P-TYPE SHOULD
BE SLEET AND SNOW. THE BEST BET FOR FREEZING RAIN AND MINOR ICE
ACCUMS WILL BE OVER FAR NE WI DURING THE MID TO LATE EVENING, SO
KEPT THE HEADLINES GOING FOR MARINETTE AND DOOR COUNTIES, DESPITE
LOWERED CONFIDENCE. LINGERING LIGHT SNOW WILL TAPER OFF LATE
TONIGHT, WITH PERHAPS SOME LIGHT LAKE-EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS OR
FLURRIES OCCURRING IN VILAS AND NORTHERN DOOR COUNTIES ON
TUESDAY.
HIGH PRESSURE DOMINATES OUR WEATHER FOR THE REST OF THE WORK
WEEK, WITH ONLY SMALL PRECIPITATION CHANCES EXPECTED THROUGH
THE WEEKEND. A STRONGER LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM COULD IMPACT OUR SE
COUNTIES SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY NIGHT, BUT AT THIS POINT, ONLY THE
CANADIAN ENSEMBLES ARE DEPICTING THIS SCENARIO. THUS, BELOW NORMAL
PRECIPITATION IS ANTICIPATED THROUGH THE PERIOD.
TEMPERATURES WILL TREND ABOVE NORMAL THROUGH THE WEEK, WITH HIGHS
IN THE UPPER 20S AND 30S THROUGH THURSDAY, AND MIDDLE 30S TO LOWER
40S FROM FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY.
AVIATION
FOR 06Z TAF ISSUANCE
ISSUED AT 941 PM CST MON FEB 9 2026
A COLD FRONT AND CLIPPER SYSTEM WILL SWEEP ACROSS THE REGION
OVERNIGHT, BRINGING A PERIOD OF LIGHT SNOW AND DETERIORATING
FLIGHT CONDITIONS. SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS ARE
EXPECTED TO IMPACT THE NORTH-CENTRAL AND CENTRAL WISCONSIN
TERMINALS (KRHI, KAUW, KCWA) BETWEEN 06Z AND 10Z, WITH VISIBILITY
REDUCTIONS TO MVFR POSSIBLE. MINOR SNOW ACCUMULATIONS OF A
DUSTING TO A HALF INCH ARE POSSIBLE.
BEHIND THE FRONT, COLDER AIR WILL USHER IN AN AREA OF MVFR STRATUS.
CEILINGS WILL LIKELY DROP TO 1,500-2,500 FT AGL ACROSS THE
WESTERN SITES THROUGH TUESDAY AFTERNOON. FOR THE EAST-CENTRAL
TERMINALS (KGRB, KATW, KMTW), MVFR CEILINGS ARE EXPECTED TO ARRIVE
BETWEEN 15Z AND 19Z, THOUGH SOME LIFTING TOWARD VFR IS POSSIBLE
LATE IN THE DAY.
A BRIEF PERIOD OF LOW-LEVEL WIND SHEAR (LLWS) REMAINS A CONCERN
AT KRHI ON TUESDAY EVENING.
SURFACE WINDS WILL SHIFT TO THE NORTHWEST AND BECOME GUSTY
TUESDAY MORNING, WITH PEAK GUSTS OF 20-25 KTS IN THE AFTERNOON.
GRB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 3 AM CST TUESDAY FOR WIZ013-022-
073.
UPDATE.........MPC
DISCUSSION.....KIECKBUSCH
AVIATION.......MPC
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