482  
FXUS63 KGRB 250444  
AFDGRB  
 
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION  
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREEN BAY WI  
1044 PM CST SAT FEB 24 2024  
 
UPDATED AVIATION PORTION FOR 06Z TAF ISSUANCE  
   
KEY MESSAGES
 
 
- A RETURN TO WELL-ABOVE NORMAL EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH MANY RECORDS  
POSSIBLY IN JEOPARDY ON TUESDAY.  
 
- NEXT CHANCE FOR WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION COMES TOWARD THE MIDDLE  
OF NEXT WEEK. STILL PLENTY OF UNCERTAINTY ON STRENGTH/TRACK,  
BUT A FEW THUNDERSTORMS MAY BE POSSIBLE WITH THIS SYSTEM, MAINLY  
TUESDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING, ALONG WITH SOME GUSTY WINDS AND  
SNOW/MIXED PRECIP BEHIND A STRONG COLD FRONT.  
 

 
   
DISCUSSION
 
 
ISSUED AT 236 PM CST SAT FEB 24 2024  
 
SHORT TERM...TONIGHT AND SUNDAY  
 
MAIN FORECAST CHALLENGES TO FOCUS MAINLY ON PRECIPITATION CHANCES  
LATE TONIGHT AND AGAIN SUNDAY AFTERNOON.  
 
THE 19Z MSAS SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWED A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE THAT  
EXTENDED FROM THE MID-MS VALLEY NORTHEAST INTO EASTERN SECTIONS OF  
THE GREAT LAKES. A COLD FRONT WAS SITUATED FROM EASTERN MANITOBA  
SOUTH INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS. A TIGHTENING PRESSURE GRADIENT  
EXISTED BETWEEN THE HIGH PRESSURE AND COLD FRONT WITH OCCASIONAL  
WIND GUSTS OF 15 TO 25 MPH.  
 
GENERALLY PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES THIS EVENING WILL GIVE WAY TO  
INCREASING CLOUDS OVERNIGHT AS THE COLD FRONT AND A MID-LEVEL  
SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVE INTO THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES. MOST MODELS  
KEEP NORTHEAST WI DRY, HOWEVER THERE ARE A FEW MESO-MODELS THAT  
DO TRY TO GENERATE LIGHT SNOW OR FLURRIES OVER NORTHERN WI INTO  
DOOR COUNTY. PREVIOUS FORECAST ALREADY HEAD THIS POTENTIAL, SO  
OTHER THAN PERHAPS STARTING A COUPLE HOURS EARLIER, HAVE NOT  
TOUCHED THIS PART OF THE FORECAST. SOUTHWEST WINDS AND INCREASING  
CLOUDS WILL BRING MILDER TEMPERATURES TONIGHT WITH EVENING LOWS IN  
THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 20S NORTH, MIDDLE TO UPPER 20S SOUTH, THEN  
SLOWLY RISING TEMPERATURES OVERNIGHT AS CLOUDS THICKEN.  
 
THE COLD FRONT/SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVE NORTHEAST WI SUNDAY MORNING,  
BRINGING A WIND SHIFT TO THE WEST-NORTHWEST AND A CONTINUED SMALL  
POP (MAINLY FLURRIES) TO NORTHERN WI. SOME BRIEF CLEARING MAY  
OCCUR LATE MORNING, BUT THE APPROACH OF ANOTHER SHORTWAVE WITHIN  
THE WEST-NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT AND WEAK WAA LOOKS TO BRING MORE  
CLOUDS TO THE AREA IN THE AFTERNOON. JUST DO NOT SEE ENOUGH LIFT  
OR FGEN FORCING TO CARRY POPS IN THE AFTERNOON AND AFTER  
COLLABORATION WITH DLH AND MQT, HAVE GONE WITH SPRINKLES OR SOME  
LATE DAY FLURRIES MAINLY NORTH OF HWY 64. TEMPERATURES WILL  
CONTINUE TO WARM ON SUNDAY WITH READINGS TO RANGE FROM THE LOWER  
TO MIDDLE 40S NORTH-CENTRAL WI, TO AROUND 50 DEGREES SOUTH  
(SLIGHTLY COOLER ALONG LAKE MI).  
 
LONG TERM...SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY  
 
THE MAIN FOCUS OF THE EXTENDED PERIOD CONTINUES TO BE A LOW  
PRESSURE SYSTEM FORECAST TO CROSS WISCONSIN TUESDAY AND  
WEDNESDAY. RAIN AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS LOOK POSSIBLE WITH THE  
ONSET OF THIS SYSTEM, WITH A TRANSITION TO SNOW/MIXED  
PRECIPITATION EXPECTED BEHIND A STRONG COLD FRONT.  
 
PRECIPITATION...A WEAK SHORTWAVE PROPAGATING ACROSS NORTHERN  
WISCONSIN SUNDAY NIGHT MAYBE ENOUGH TO INITIATE A FEW AREAS OF  
LIGHT RAIN ACROSS CENTRAL AND EAST-CENTRAL WI. HOWEVER, WITH LIMITED  
MOISTURE AVAILABLE MOST MODELS ARE KEEPING THE AREA DRY.  
 
WITH A ROBUST WAA REGIME SETTING UP MONDAY AHEAD OF THE  
AFOREMENTIONED LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM THERE IS ANOTHER CHANCE FOR A  
FEW AREAS OF LIGHT RAIN MONDAY AFTERNOON AS MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES  
STEEPEN TO AROUND 7-7.5 C/KM. GUIDANCE HAS ALSO BEEN POINTING  
TOWARD A LOW-LEVEL JET PUSHING INTO THE AREA MONDAY  
AFTERNOON/EVENING WHICH COULD HELP SUPPORT A FEW AREAS OF RAIN,  
BUT AGAIN WITH LIMITED LOW AND MID LEVEL MOISTURE THE WINDOW AND  
INTENSITY OF ANY SHOWERS THAT DEVELOP WOULD BE LIMITED.  
 
THE BEST CHANCE FOR PRECIPITATION IS PROGGED TO ARRIVE TUESDAY  
WITH THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MENTIONED ABOVE, HOWEVER, BOTH GLOBAL  
DETERMINISTIC AND ENSEMBLE MODELS ARE SHOWING THE STRONGEST  
FORCING WITH SYSTEM STAYING SOUTH AND EAST OF THE CWA. SOUNDING  
ALSO SHOW RATHER DRY PROFILES INTO EARLY TUESDAY AFTERNOON. THESE  
FACTORS MAY POINT TOWARD PRECIPITATION NOT INITIATING UNTIL LATER  
TUESDAY AFTERNOON. CURRENT GUIDANCE DOES SUPPORT A SHORT WINDOW  
FOR SOME ELEVATED CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY TUESDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING,  
MAINLY IN A WEDGE BETWEEN THE FOX VALLEY AND LAKESHORE. ELEVATED  
INSTABILITY AND SURFACE DEW POINTS IN THE MID TO UPPER 40S DURING  
THIS PERIOD MAY BE ABLE TO SUPPORT A FEW THUNDERSTORMS, HOWEVER,  
THAT WINDOW WILL END QUICKLY AS A STRONG COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH  
TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING. AS MOISTURE AND COLDER AIR  
WRAP IN BEHIND THE FRONT EXPECT PRECIPITATION TO TRANSITION TO A  
WINTRY MIX THEN MAINLY SNOW BEFORE ENDING LATE WEDNESDAY  
AFTERNOON. AN INITIAL LOOK AT PROBABILISTIC GUIDANCES SHOWS A  
30-50% CHANCE FOR OVER 2" OF SNOW NORTH OF HIGHWAY 29 WEDNESDAY  
WITH LOWER PROBABILITIES FURTHER SOUTH. GUSTY NORTH TO NORTHWEST  
WINDS ARE ALSO EXPECTED BEHIND THE FRONT.  
 
AN AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE IS FORECAST TO MOVE IN THURSDAY KEEPING  
THE REST OF THE EXTENDED PERIOD DRY.  
 
TEMPERATUES...THE WARMING TREND IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH  
MONDAY AND TUESDAY WITH RECORD SETTING HIGH TEMPERATURES  
POSSIBLE. WEDNESDAY IS FORECAST TO BE MUCH COLDER BEHIND THE  
FRONT WITH HIGHS DROPPING 20-30 DEGREES FROM THE PREVIOUS DAY.  
HOWEVER, THIS COLD SPELL LOOKS RATHER SHORT LIVED AS WINDS BECOME  
SOUTHERLY BY THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND HIGHS RETURN TO WELL ABOVE  
NORMAL BY FRIDAY.  
 

 
   
AVIATION
 
FOR 06Z TAF ISSUANCE  
ISSUED AT 1044 PM CST SAT FEB 24 2024  
 
MID AND HIGH CLOUDS WILL STREAM IN ACROSS THE TAF SITES AT TIMES  
DURING THE TAF PERIOD, WITH SCT TO BKN CIGS EXPECTED. A WEAK COLD  
FRONT AND MID-LEVEL SHORTWAVE WILL TRACK THROUGH LATE  
TONIGHT/EARLY SUNDAY MORNING, WHICH COULD BRING SOME FLURRIES TO  
FAR NORTHERN WISCONSIN. DESPITE THE FRONTAL PASSAGE, VFR  
CONDITIONS SHOULD PERSIST. ONCE THE FRONT PASSES THROUGH THE AREA,  
VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE REST OF THE TAF PERIOD  
AS THE MID AND HIGH CLOUDS SCATTER OUT.  
 
SOUTH-SOUTHWEST SURFACE WINDS HAVE EASED ACROSS SOME OF THE AREA,  
WITH SOME GUSTS OF 15-20 KTS AT TIMES AT RHI/GRB. SURFACE WINDS  
SHOULD DISSIPATE LATE TONIGHT ACROSS ALL AREAS. KGRB VWP AND MODEL  
SOUNDINGS INDICATE WINDS JUST ABOVE THE SURFACE ARE GUSTING TO 35  
TO 45 KTS, WITH WINDS ALOFT DECREASING FROM NORTHWEST TO  
SOUTHEAST OVERNIGHT INTO SUNDAY MORNING. THE COLD FRONT IS  
EXPECTED TO REACH CENTRAL WI AT SUNRISE AND EASTERN WI MID TO LATE  
MORNING WITH A WIND SHIFT TO THE WEST-NORTHWEST.  
 

 
   
GRB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
 
 
NONE.  
 

 
 

 
 
DISCUSSION.....KALLAS/GK  
AVIATION.......KURIMSKI  
 
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.

The Nexlab WI Page Main Text Page