183
FXUS63 KGRB 241727
AFDGRB
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREEN BAY WI
1127 AM CST TUE FEB 24 2026
UPDATED AVIATION PORTION FOR 18Z TAF ISSUANCE
KEY MESSAGES
- BRIEF PERIODS OF HAZARDOUS TRAVEL ARE EXPECTED AT TIMES TODAY AS
A FAST MOVING ROUND OF SNOW CROSSES THE REGION. A QUICK 1-3
INCHES IS EXPECTED FOR MOST LOCATIONS WITH THE GREATEST AMOUNTS NORTH
OF HIGHWAY 8 AND NORTHERN DOOR COUNTY. A WINTER WEATHER
ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT.
- FRIDAY WILL BE THE WARMEST DAY THIS WEEK WITH >80% CHANCE OF
HIGHS OVER 40 DEGREES REGIONWIDE. TURNING COLDER AGAIN THIS
WEEKEND.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 108 AM CST TUE FEB 24 2026
RAP ANALYSIS AND WV IMAGERY SHOW A COMPACT SHORT-WAVE DRIVING AN AREA
OF SNOW NEAR THE NORTHERN MN/ND BORDER EARLY THIS MORNING. AS THIS
SYSTEM CONTINUES EAST THIS MORNING IT WILL BRING A BRIEF BUT INTENSE
PERIOD OF SNOW TO MUCH OF THE FORECAST AREA. CAMS ARE IN GENERALLY
GOOD AGREEMENT THAT SNOW SHOULD BEGIN TO PUSH INTO NC WI AROUND 15-
16Z WITH SNOWFALL RATES AROUND 1/1.5" PER HOUR AS A LOW-LEVEL JET
INTENSIFIES INCREASE LOW-LEVEL THERMAL ADVECTION JUST AHEAD OF THE
SHORT-WAVE. THESE HIGHER SNOWFALL RATES WILL CONTINUE AS THE BAND
QUICKLY MOVES ACROSS THE REGION LATE THIS MORNING AND AFTERNOON WITH
SNOW COMING TO AN END BY 23-00Z. BEHIND THIS SYSTEM WINDS TURN TO
THE WNW WHICH COULD SPUR ON LIGHT LES ALONG THE WI/UP BORDER,
HOWEVER, WITH MORE WESTERLY WIND TRAJECTORIES EXPECT MOST OF THE LES
TO REMAIN OVER THE UP. TOTAL SNOWFALL AMOUNTS WITH THIS SYSTEM
REMAIN LIGHT WITH MOST LOCATIONS SEEING A QUICK 1-3", HIGHEST ACROSS
OUR NORTHERN TIER OF COUNTIES WHERE A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IS IN
EFFECT THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. SMALL CHANCES (~10%) FOR NEAR 4" EXIST
ACROSS VILAS AND NORTHERN DOOR CO.
THE NEXT SYSTEM THAT COULD AFFECT THE REGION CONTINUES ITS
SOUTHWARD TREND LATE IN THE WEEK, WHERE NBM PROBABILITIES OF
EXCEEDING AN INCH OF SNOW ON THURSDAY HAVE PLUMMETED BELOW 10%.
WHILE THE SOUTHERN STREAM SYSTEM HAS TRENDED SOUTH, IT HAS OPENED
THE DOOR FOR A NORTHERN STREAM SYSTEM TO TRACK THROUGH THE REGION
DURING THAT SAME TIME PERIOD. THIS WOULD BRING THE POSSIBILITY FOR A
WIDESPREAD DUSTING TO A FEW TENTHS OF AN INCH SNOWFALL ACCUMULATION
TO THE REGION (20-25% OF EXCEEDING 0.1 INCH). BEYOND THAT GLOBAL
ENSEMBLES SHOW A SIGNAL FOR A MOISTURE STARVED FRONTAL PASSAGE
SATURDAY BRINGING ANOTHER LIGHT SNOWFALL TO THE REGION.
TEMPERATURES BOUNCE UPWARD TOWARD NORMAL TODAY THEN TREND BACK BELOW
NORMAL WEDNESDAY, THEN RETURN TOWARD AVERAGE ON THURSDAY. IF THE
SYSTEM FOR THURSDAY IS A COMPLETE MISS, THEN HIGHS COULD TREND A FEW
DEGREES WARMER THAN THE CURRENT FORECAST SHOWS. A STRONG CYCLONE
TRACKING ACROSS CENTRAL CANADA PUTS THE REGION WITHIN THE WARM
SECTOR FRIDAY. NBM PROBABILITIES REMAIN VERY CONSISTENT OF AT LEAST
80% CHANCE OF SEEING HIGHS ACROSS ALL AREAS IN THE 40S. ONCE THE LOW
AND STRONGER COLD FRONT PASS BY, A COOLDOWN IS IN STORE FOR THE
WEEKEND.
AVIATION
FOR 18Z TAF ISSUANCE
ISSUED AT 1127 AM CST TUE FEB 24 2026
FAST MOVING BAND OF SNOW SHOWERS WILL CROSS THE REGION THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON FROM WEST TO EAST. SNOWFALL RATES WILL REDUCE VISIBILITY
TO IFR AT TIMES WHILE SOME LOWER CLOUDS WILL PUSH CEILINGS
DOWNWARDS TO MVFR/IFR AS WELL. SNOW RATES WILL BE MOST INTENSE
ACROSS PORTIONS OF CENTRAL TO NORTH-CENTRAL WISCONSIN BUT MAY
STILL SEE SOME IMPACTS FURTHER EASTWARDS FOR OUR SITES OF
GRB/ATW/MTW. THE BAND OF SNOW WILL MOVE RELATIVELY QUICKLY,
HITTING EACH LOCATION FOR ONLY A COUPLE HOURS BEFORE SNOW QUICKLY
COMES TO AN END. HIGH SNOWFALL RATES MAY STILL LEAVE BEHIND A
COUPLE INCHES AT THE CENTRAL AND NORTH-CENTRAL TERMINALS, WITH
SOME LOWER AMOUNTS POSSIBLE IN EAST-CENTRAL WISCONSIN.
WINDS DURING THIS PERIOD WILL BE FAIRLY GUSTY AS WELL, WITH
PERIODIC GUSTS UP TO 20-30 KNOTS THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. WINDS WILL
DECREASE SOME OVERNIGHT, BUT GUSTS UP TO 20 KNOTS REMAIN POSSIBLE.
GRB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 2 PM CST THIS AFTERNOON FOR WIZ005.
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 3 PM CST THIS AFTERNOON FOR
WIZ011>013.
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM CST THIS EVENING FOR WIZ022.
DISCUSSION.....GK
AVIATION.......UHLMANN
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