218
FXUS63 KGRB 052032
AFDGRB
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREEN BAY WI
232 PM CST FRI DEC 5 2025
FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR ROUTINE AFTERNOON FORECAST ISSUANCE
KEY MESSAGES
- LIGHT TO MODERATE SNOW WILL CONTINUE TO SPREAD ACROSS THE REGION
THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. MOST LOCATIONS SHOULD SEE AROUND 1"
OF SNOW WITH LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS UP TO 2" POSSIBLE IN DOOR
COUNTY. FREEZING DRIZZLE MAY MIX IN BRIEFLY AS PRECIPITATION
ENDS TONIGHT.
- FOR LATE SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY MORNING, THERE IS A 25-40%
CHANCE FOR GREATER THAN 1" OF SNOW SOUTH OF A WAUSAU TO STURGEON
BAY LINE. ELSEWHERE ACCUMULATIONS AROUND AN INCH OR LESS ARE
EXPECTED. CHANCES OF LIGHT SNOW TAPER OFF OVER NORTHERN WI.
- TWO CLIPPER SYSTEMS ARE EXPECTED TO BRING ANOTHER ROUND OF SNOW
LATE MONDAY AFTERNOON INTO EARLY TUESDAY MORNING, AND THEN
AGAIN TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING. SNOWFALL AMOUNTS ARE
UNCERTAIN AT THIS TIME DEPENDING ON WHERE THE EXACT STORM TRACK
SETS UP. THE SYSTEM ON TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY HAS THE
POTENTIAL TO BRING A HEAVIER SNOWFALL TO THE AREA.
- BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE WEEKEND WITH
MODERATING TEMPERATURES BY THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. TEMPERATURES
ACROSS CENTRAL AND EAST-CENTRAL WI COULD FLIRT WITH 30 DEGREES
TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 229 PM CST FRI DEC 5 2025
SYNOPSIS...NORTHWEST FLOW REGIME IS FORECAST TO PERSIST OVER THE
NEXT WEEK WITH SEVERAL ROUNDS OF SNOW, MOST LIGHT, AND BELOW NORMAL
TEMPERATURES EXPECTED.
REST OF TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY...SHORT-WAVE CURRENTLY CENTERED OVER
THE TWIN CITIES WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE EAST ACROSS WISCONSIN THROUGH
THIS EVENING. AHEAD OF THE WAVE WAA IS PRODUCING LIGHT TO MODERATE
SNOW WHICH WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THIS EVENING. ACCUMULATIONS ARE
EXPECTED TO BE AROUND 1" FOR MOST LOCATIONS, WITH SOME LOCALLY
HIGHER AMOUNTS UP TO 2" POSSIBLE IN DOOR CO. BRIEF REDUCTIONS IN
VISIBILITY ARE POSSIBLE WHICH ALONG WITH ROADS BECOMING SNOW COVERED
MAY PRODUCE SOME MINOR IMPACTS FOR THIS EVENINGS COMMUTE. UPSTREAM
OBSERVATIONS ALSO INDICATE A TRANSITION TO FREEZING DRIZZLE IS
POSSIBLE ON THE BACKSIDE OF THE SNOW. FORECAST SOUNDINGS ALSO
SUPPORT THIS AS THEY SHOW MID-LEVEL MOISTURE IN THE DGZ QUICKLY
GETTING STRIPPED OUT OF THE COLUMN. IMPACTS FROM THE FREEZING
DRIZZLE SHOULD BE MINIMIZED AS IT WILL BE FALLING INTO A FRESH SNOW.
PRECIPITATION SHOULD COME TO AN END FROM WEST TO EAST OVERNIGHT WITH
GENERALLY DRY CONDITIONS EXPECTED FOR MUCH OF SATURDAY.
SNOW CHANCES SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY...NEXT CHANCE FOR SNOW IS
FORECAST TO ARRIVE LATE SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY AS A SHORT-
WAVE/LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM EJECTS OUT OF THE CENTRAL PLANES AND MOVES
ACROSS THE MID-MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. STRONGEST FORCING WITH THIS
SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO STAY WELL SOUTH OF THE REGION, HOWEVER, WEAK F-
GEN FORCING ASSOCIATED WITH THE DEFORMATION ZONE MAY MAKE ITS WAY
INTO CENTRAL WI AND THE FOX VALLEY AND SPUR ON A SHORT PERIOD OF
LIGHT TO MODERATE SNOW OVERNIGHT SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY. GREATEST
CHANCE FOR OVER 1" (25-40%) IS SOUTH OF A WAUSAU TO STURGEON BAY
LINE. NBM ALSO SHOWS A 20% CHANCE FOR OVER 2" IN AND AROUND THE FOX
VALLEY BY NOON SUNDAY. DRY AIR PUSHING IN FROM THE NORTHWEST SHOULD
BRING A RATHER QUICK END TO THE SNOW SUNDAY MORNING WITH MOST OF THE
REGION TURNING DRY BY THE AFTERNOON. SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY
MORNING MAY BE A PRIME RADIATIONAL COOLING NIGHT IF SKIES CLEAR OUT
AS HIGH PRESSURE IS FORECAST TO BE DIRECTLY OVERHEAD AND WINDS
SHOULD GO CALM.
CONTINUED SNOW CHANCES NEXT WEEK...LONG RANGE ENSEMBLES SUPPORT
MULTIPLE MORE CLIPPERS TRACKING ACROSS THE UPPER MIDWEST DURING THE
EARLY TO MIDDLE PART OF NEXT WEEK. A SYSTEM MONDAY NIGHT INTO
TUESDAY MAY BRING A ROUND OF ACCUMULATING SNOW FOR MUCH OF THE
REGION. NBM SHOWS 40-50% PROBS FOR GREATER THAN 2" OF SNOW NORTH
OF HWY 29, AND A 20-30% CHANCE FOR GREATER THAN 3" ACROSS NORTH-
CENTRAL WI AND NORTHERN DOOR. THE MOST IMPACTFUL SYSTEM IN THIS
SERIES MAY COME LATE TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY AS A SHORT-WAVES PICKS
UP REMNANT MOISTURE FROM A PNW ATMOSPHERIC RIVER WHICH COULD LEAD
TO GREATER SNOWFALL TOTALS. CURRENT NBM PROBS SHOW 30-50% CHANCES
FOR GREATER THAN 3" NORTH OF A STEVENS POINT TO GREEN BAY LINE.
UNCERTAINTY IS STILL HIGH WITH THE DETAILS FOR THESE SYSTEMS NEXT
WEEK, SO CONTINUE TO MONITOR THE FORECAST AS DETAILS COME INTO
BETTER FOCUS.
AVIATION
FOR 18Z TAF ISSUANCE
ISSUED AT 1134 AM CST FRI DEC 5 2025
FLYING CONDITIONS ARE BEGINNING TO DETERIORATE ACROSS CENTRAL WI
EARLY THIS AFTERNOON WITH LIGHT SNOW AND MVFR CIGS STATING TO SPREAD
INTO THE REGION. SNOW AND LOWER CIGS WILL CONTINUE TO SPREAD ACROSS
THE REGION THIS AFTERNOON WITH MOST TERMINALS BECOMING MVFR. BRIEF
PERIODS OF IFR VSBYS ARE POSSIBLE, MAINLY ACROSS CENTRAL WI WITH
ANY HEAVIER PERIODS OF SNOW. CIGS MAY AT TIMES ALSO BECOME IFR,
MAINLY ACROSS NORTHERN WI.
SNOW SHOULD COME TO AN END FROM WEST TO EAST OVERNIGHT WITH MOST
LOCATIONS SEEING 0.5-1" OF SNOW ACCUMULATIONS. CIGS WILL ALSO
GRADUALLY IMPROVE SATURDAY MORNING. DOWNSLOPE WINDS MAY HELP TO
SCATTER OUT THE LOW CLOUDS ACROSS EASTERN WI SATURDAY MORNING
LEADING TO A PERIOD OF VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH SATURDAY AFTERNOON.
GRB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
DISCUSSION.....GK
AVIATION.......GK
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