712
FXUS63 KGRB 122322
AFDGRB
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREEN BAY WI
522 PM CST THU FEB 12 2026
UPDATED AVIATION PORTION FOR 00Z TAF ISSUANCE
KEY MESSAGES
- PATCHY/AREAS OF FOG MAY IMPACT TRAVEL DURING THE LATE NIGHT INTO
THE EARLY MORNING HOURS EACH MORNING FROM FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY.
THE GREATEST IMPACTS OF THE FOG ARE LIKELY ON SATURDAY MORNING.
- ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED THROUGH NEXT WEEK. THERE
IS A 60-90% CHANCE OF REACHING 40 DEGREES FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY.
THE HIGHEST PROBABILITIES (40-70%) OF REACHING 50 DEGREES WILL
BE ON MONDAY SOUTH OF A WAUSAU TO OCONTO LINE.
- A POTENT SYSTEM WILL LIKELY (50-70% CHANCE) BRING RAIN, SNOW OR
A WINTRY MIX TO THE AREA TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY. EARLY
INDICATIONS ARE THAT TRAVEL MAY BE IMPACTED BY A WINTRY MIX
ACROSS NORTHERN WI.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 234 PM CST THU FEB 12 2026
ZONAL FLOW AT 500MB WILL RESULT IN MILD CONDITIONS THROUGH THE
WEEKEND. EARLY NEXT WEEK, 500MB TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO DEEPEN
OVER THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN WHICH WILL RESULT IN AN ACTIVE
SOUTHWEST FLOW PATTERN WITH SEVERAL FEATURES TO CONTEND WITH
INTO NEXT WEEK.
ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES BEGIN ON FRIDAY AND CONTINUE THROUGH
THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. THERE IS A 60-90% CHANCE OF REACHING 40
DEGREES OR HIGHER FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY. THE HIGHEST PROBABILITIES
(40-70%) OF REACHING 50 DEGREES WILL BE ON MONDAY SOUTH OF A
WAUSAU TO OCONTO LINE.
WITH THE MILD AIR IN PLACE WITH A MELTING SNOWPACK, PATCHY/AREAS
OF FOG MAY IMPACT TRAVEL DURING THE LATE NIGHT INTO THE EARLY
MORNING HOURS EACH MORNING FROM FRIDAY THROUGH AT LEAST SUNDAY
MORNING. THE GREATEST IMPACTS OF THE FOG ARE LIKELY ON SATURDAY
MORNING AT THIS TIME WITH UNCERTAINTY EXISTS IN THE IMPACTS BEYOND
SUNDAY.
A POTENT SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO BRING A ROUND OF PRECIPITATION TO
THE AREA TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY. PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES
ARE NEAR THE TOP VALUES FOR THE DATE. RAIN, SNOW, SLEET OR
FREEZING RAIN ARE POSSIBLE AS MODELS HAVE DIFFERING SOLUTIONS
WITH THE THERMAL PROFILE FROM THE SURFACE THROUGH 850MB. MODEL
QPF LAYOUT SUGGEST FGEN BAND SETTING UP WITH THE GFS DEPICTING
THE FGEN BAND SETTING UP ACROSS NORTHERN WI. IT IS TOO EARLY
TO DETERMINE WHERE THIS BAND WILL SET UP. EITHER WAY, THIS SYSTEM
HAS THE POTENTIAL TO IMPACT TRAVEL IN THIS TIME FRAME.
ANOTHER SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO IMPACT THE AREA THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY
WITH A ROUND OF SNOW. ECMWF/CANADIAN MODEL ARE CONSIDERABLY WEAKER
THAN THE GFS SOLUTION AND WAS THE MODEL SOLUTION OF CHOICE FOR
THIS PERIOD.
AVIATION
FOR 00Z TAF ISSUANCE
ISSUED AT 516 PM CST THU FEB 12 2026
A BAND OF MID-LEVEL CLOUDS WILL WORK ITS WAY EAST ACROSS THE
FORECAST AREA THIS EVENING AND INTO THE EARLY OVERNIGHT HOURS.
DESPITE CLEARING SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS LATE TONIGHT, FEEL THAT
INCREASING BOUNDARY LAYER WINDS AND A DRY AIR MASS WILL PREVENT
ANY SIGNIFICANT FOG FROM FORMING. AS SUCH, NOT PLANNING TO MENTION
FOG AT ANY OF THE TAF SITES. LIGHT SE-SW WINDS TONIGHT WILL
INCREASE A BIT AND BECOME W-WNW ON FRIDAY.
LLWS IS EXPECTED ACROSS NORTHERN WI LATE TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY
MORNING. HAVE ADDED LLWS AT RHI BETWEEN 09Z-13Z/FRI.
THERE APPEARS TO BE AN INCREASED CHANCE OF FOG LATE FRIDAY NIGHT
INTO SATURDAY MORNING.
GRB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
DISCUSSION.....ECKBERG
AVIATION.......KIECKBUSCH
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