264
FXUS63 KGRB 212345
AFDGRB
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREEN BAY WI
645 PM CDT THU MAY 21 2026
UPDATED AVIATION PORTION FOR 00Z TAF ISSUANCE
KEY MESSAGES
- A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT FOR THE LAKE MICHIGAN
NEARSHORE WATERS WITH A BEACH HAZARDS STATEMENT FOR THE LAKE
MICHIGAN SHORELINE LATE FRIDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH FRIDAY
EVENING.
- CONDITIONS HAZARDOUS TO SMALL CRAFT ALONG WITH BEACH HAZARDS ARE
POSSIBLE ON SATURDAY DUE TO PERSISTENT ONSHORE FLOW NORTH OF
STURGEON BAY.
- BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES CONTINUE THROUGHOUT THE WEEK, WARMING
TO ABOVE NORMAL LATE THIS MEMORIAL DAY WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT
WEEK.
- DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED THROUGH AT LEAST FRIDAY EVENING, WITH
PERIODIC RAIN CHANCES THROUGHOUT THE MEMORIAL DAY WEEKEND.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 101 PM CDT THU MAY 21 2026
COOL TEMPERATURES WITH SCATTERED TO BROKEN HIGH CLOUDS WERE NOTED
ACROSS THE REGION THIS AFTERNOON. SOME EVENING MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES
WILL ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO FALL INITIALLY THIS EVENING, ESPECIALLY
ACROSS NORTH-CENTRAL WISCONSIN. HOWEVER, SATELLITE OBSERVATIONS
INDICATE ADDITIONAL HIGH CLOUDS UPSTREAM WILL STREAM IN ACROSS THE
REGION LATER TONIGHT. THE CLOUDS MOVING IN LATER TONIGHT SHOULD
HELP LIMIT THE POTENTIAL FOR FROST DESPITE OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE
MIDDLE 30S ACROSS NORTH-CENTRAL WISCONSIN. THEREFORE, A FROST
ADVISORY IS NOT ANTICIPATED TONIGHT FOR NORTHERN WISCONSIN.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING CONTINUED DRY WEATHER TO THE REGION
THROUGH AT LEAST FRIDAY EVENING AS HIGH PRESSURE SLOWLY RETREATS
FROM THE GREAT LAKES. MODEL GUIDANCE IS STILL INDICATING TWO
SYSTEMS WILL APPROACH THE REGION FOR THE START OF THE MEMORIAL DAY
WEEKEND, ONE FROM THE SOUTH AND ONE FROM THE WEST. THE LATEST
GUIDANCE WOULD SUGGEST ONLY A PORTION OF EASTERN WISCONSIN MAY
GET CLIPPED BY THE NORTHWEST PRECIP SHIELD OF THE SOUTHERN STREAM
SYSTEM LATE FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY, WHILE PORTIONS OF CENTRAL
AND NORTH-CENTRAL WISCONSIN COULD SEE LIGHT PRECIP FROM THE OTHER
SYSTEM ON SATURDAY AND PERHAPS SUNDAY. HOWEVER, FORCING APPEARS
WEAK WITH THESE SYSTEMS, WHICH MEANS GENERALLY LIGHT PRECIPITATION
IS EXPECTED THIS WEEKEND INSTEAD OF HEAVIER STEADY RAIN.
ADDITIONAL WEAK SHORTWAVES LOOK TO BRING CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND
STORMS AT TIMES THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK AS WELL.
TEMPERATURES WILL GRADUALLY WARM EACH DAY THROUGH THE MEMORIAL
DAY WEEKEND, RISING ABOVE NORMAL BY SUNDAY WITH HIGHS IN THE 70S.
UPPER-LEVEL RIDGING AND SOUTHERLY FLOW LOOKS TO BRING TEMPS INTO
THE 80S FOR MEMORIAL DAY THROUGH AT LEAST THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.
PERSISTENT ONSHORE FLOW WILL CAUSE GUSTY WINDS AND HIGH WAVES AT
TIMES FROM FRIDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH SATURDAY. THE FIRST WINDOW FOR
THIS IS LATE FRIDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH FRIDAY EVENING ACROSS MUCH
OF THE LAKE MICHIGAN SHORELINE. GIVEN THE FAIRLY HIGH CONFIDENCE
AND HOW CLOSE THIS EVENT IS WILL ISSUE THE APPROPRIATE SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY AND BEACH HAZARDS STATEMENT FOR LATE FRIDAY AFTERNOON
THROUGH FRIDAY EVENING.
AFTER A LULL IN WINDS AND WAVES LATE FRIDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY
SATURDAY MORNING, ANOTHER PERIOD OF HIGH WAVES AND ONSHORE FLOW IS
POSSIBLE LATER SATURDAY MORNING INTO LATE SATURDAY AFTERNOON.
SINCE THIS EVENT IT FURTHER OUT IN THE FUTURE AND APPEARS MORE
MARGINAL, WILL NOT ISSUE HEADLINES FOR THIS SECOND EVENT WITH THIS
FORECAST ISSUANCE. AFTER THIS SECOND EVENT ON SATURDAY, THE REST
OF THE MEMORIAL DAY WEEKEND LOOKS CLEAR FOR AREA BEACHES, WHICH
WILL ALSO COINCIDE WITH THE WARMEST EXPECTED TEMPERATURES.
AVIATION
FOR 00Z TAF ISSUANCE
ISSUED AT 645 PM CDT THU MAY 21 2026
MID-HIGH CLOUDS WILL CONTINUE TO SPREAD ACROSS THE REGION TONIGHT
INTO FRIDAY. A STRAY SPRINKLE CANNOT BE RULED OUT, MAINLY SOUTH OF
HWY 29; HOWEVER, DRY AIR IN THE LOW-LEVELS WILL LIMIT THIS
ACTIVITY. WINDS WILL RANGE FROM THE NORTHEAST IN EASTERN WI, TO
EAST IN CENTRAL WI TO SOUTHEAST OVER NORTH-CENTRAL, BUT GENERALLY
REMAIN UNDER 10 KTS TONIGHT. EAST-SOUTHEAST WINDS WILL INCREASE
FRIDAY MORNING, WITH GUSTS OF 18-25 KTS IN THE LATE MORNING AND
AFTERNOON.
GRB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
BEACH HAZARDS STATEMENT FROM FRIDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH FRIDAY
EVENING FOR WIZ022-040-050.
DISCUSSION.....KURIMSKI
AVIATION.......BERSCH
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