184  
FXUS63 KGRB 051114  
AFDGRB  
 
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION  
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREEN BAY WI  
614 AM CDT TUE JUL 5 2022  
 
UPDATED AVIATION PORTION FOR 12Z TAF ISSUANCE  
   
SHORT TERM...TODAY...TONIGHT
 
AND WEDNESDAY  
ISSUED AT 326 AM CDT TUE JUL 5 2022  
 
THE MAIN FOCUS OF THE SHORT-TERM PORTION OF THE FORECAST WILL BE ON  
THE POTENTIAL FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS TONIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY.  
 
TODAY: THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY THAT PRODUCED THE WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND  
THUNDERSTORMS ON MONDAY, WILL BE DRAPED ACROSS SOUTHERN WISCONSIN  
THROUGH MUCH OF THE DAY. THE LACK OF ANY ADDITIONAL SHORTWAVE ENERGY  
ACROSS NORTHEAST WISCONSIN, WILL KEEP MOST OF THE SHOWERS AND STORMS  
FOCUSED TO THE SOUTH OF THE AREA. PLENTY OF LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE IN  
PLACE WILL LIKELY LEAD TO LATE MORNING/AFTERNOON CU DEVELOPMENT AS  
OVERNIGHT FOG/STRATUS LIFTS. OTHERWISE, HIGH TEMPERATURES ARE  
EXPECTED TO BE IN THE 80 FOR MUCH OF THE AREA.  
 
TONIGHT: HIGH PRESSURE WILL PUSH INTO THE AREA FROM THE NORTH  
THROUGH MUCH OF THE NIGHT AS THE AFOREMENTIONED FRONTAL BOUNDARY  
MEANDERS SLOWLY NORTHWARD. AT THE SAME TIME, THERE ARE SOME HINTS  
THAT A SHORTWAVE MAY BRUSH JUST SOUTH OF THE AREA. THIS COULD BRING  
A FEW SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO AREAS FROM AROUND WOOD COUNTY,  
EASTWARD TO MANITOWOC COUNTY AND POINTS SOUTH. THE MAIN THREAT FROM  
THESE SHOWERS AND STORMS WOULD BE THE POTENTIAL FOR HEAVY DOWNPOURS.  
OTHERWISE, OVERNIGHT LOWS ARE FORECAST TO DROP INTO THE UPPER 50S TO  
LOW 60S UNDER PARTLY TO MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES. SOME PATCHY FOG WILL BE  
POSSIBLE AGAIN; HOWEVER, THE WIND WILL BE A LITTLE STRONGER  
OVERNIGHT, LIKELY KEEPING VISIBILITY UP.  
 
WEDNESDAY: THE AFOREMENTIONED SURFACE RIDGE WILL LINGER ACROSS THE  
AREA THROUGH MUCH OF THE DAY WEDNESDAY, WHICH WILL KEEP MUCH OF THE  
AREA DRY; HOWEVER, SOME LINGERING MORNING SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL BE  
POSSIBLE EARLY IN THE DAY. OTHERWISE, NORTHEAST WI WILL BE BETWEEN  
SYSTEMS THROUGH MUCH OF THE DAY, WITH THE NEXT SHORTWAVE APPROACHING  
WEDNESDAY NIGHT. HIGHS ARE EXPECTED TO BE IN THE 70S.  
   
LONG TERM
 
WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY  
ISSUED AT 326 AM CDT TUE JUL 5 2022  
 
TROUGH OVER THE WESTERN U.S. WILL WEAKEN/SHIFT NORTH THROUGH THE  
PERIOD, WITH WEAK RIDGING ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS. THIS WILL  
KEEP THE UPPER FLOW MAINLY OUT OF THE WEST/NORTHWEST ACROSS THE  
GREAT LAKES. FORECAST CONCERNS WILL BE PINNING DOWN BEST CHANCES  
FOR SHOWERS/STORMS AS LOCATION/TIMING OF FAST MOVING SHORTWAVES/  
FRONTAL BOUNDARIES REMAINS CHALLENGING. TEMPS LOOK TO BE NEAR OR  
SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL.  
 
WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY...SURFACE BOUNDARY WILL REMAIN WELL  
TO OUR SOUTH. POTENT SHORTWAVE WILL BE PASSING TO OUR SOUTH AS  
WELL, WHERE THE MAJORITY OF THE STRONG/SEVERE STORM ACTIVITY WILL  
BE. OUR AREA COULD BE GRAZED BY THE MAIN COMPLEX AND/OR SOME  
SHOWERS ASSOCIATED WITH THE RRQ OF AN UPPER JET. THIS ACTIVITY  
WILL END OVERNIGHT AND INTO THURSDAY MORNING. LOWS LOOK TO DROP  
INTO THE 50S TO LOWER 60S. HIGHS LOOK TO BE IN THE UPPER 70S TO  
LOWER 80S.  
 
REST OF THE LONG TERM...CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE WILL PUSH OVER THE  
GREAT LAKES LATE IN THE WEEK AND FOR THE FIRST HALF OF THE  
WEEKEND. MODELS HINTING AT ANOTHER WEAK SHORTWAVE OR TWO PUSHING  
ACROSS THE AREA ON THURSDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING AND FRIDAY, WITH  
SOME MODELS SHOWING SOME LIGHT PRECIP ON THURSDAY. BUT WILL KEEP  
THE DRY FORECAST GOING AS PLENTY OF DRY AIR IN PLACE. THE HIGH  
PRESSURE MOVES OVERHEAD ON SATURDAY THEN SHIFTS EAST OF THE REGION  
ON SUNDAY. RETURN FLOW WILL RAMP UP INTO MONDAY WITH ANOTHER  
SHORTWAVE AND FRONTAL BOUNDARY FORECAST TO PUSH ACROSS THE AREA  
SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY, BRINGING THE NEXT CHANCE FOR MORE  
WIDESPREAD SHOWERS/STORMS.  

 
   
AVIATION
 
FOR 12Z TAF ISSUANCE  
ISSUED AT 614 AM CDT TUE JUL 5 2022  
 
LOW CLOUDS AND SOME FOG EARLY THIS MORNING WILL GRADUALLY LIFT  
THROUGH MID MORNING. AFTERNOON CU WILL LIKELY DEVELOP AS THE LOW-  
LEVEL MOISTURE MIXES UP; HOWEVER, CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES WILL  
IMPROVE FROM IFR TO MVFR/VFR THIS AFTERNOON. SOME SHOWERS AND A  
STRAY STORM MAY BRUSH PAST THE CENTRAL AND EAST-CENTRAL WI TAF  
SITES THIS EVENING, BUT CONFIDENCE IS LOW ENOUGH TO LEAVE OUT OF  
THIS UPDATE.  

 
   
GRB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
 
 
NONE.  

 
 

 
 
SHORT TERM.....COOLEY  
LONG TERM......BERSCH  
AVIATION.......COOLEY  
 
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