833
FXUS63 KGRB 272309
AFDGRB
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREEN BAY WI
609 PM CDT WED MAY 27 2026
UPDATED AVIATION PORTION FOR 00Z TAF ISSUANCE
KEY MESSAGES
- ISOLATED TO SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE FOR THE REST OF
THE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING. A FEW STORMS COULD BECOME
STRONG TO SEVERE WITH DAMAGING WINDS AND HAIL, ESPECIALLY IN
CENTRAL WI AND THE WESTERN FOX VALLEY BETWEEN 4 PM AND 8 PM.
- CONDITIONS HAZARDOUS TO SMALL CRAFT ARE EXPECTED TONIGHT FOR
THE LAKE MICHIGAN NEARSHORE WATERS SOUTH OF STURGEON BAY.
BOATERS SHOULD EXERCISE CAUTION ON THE BAY OF GREEN BAY THIS
EVENING.
- THERE IS A HIGH RISK FOR RIP CURRENTS TONIGHT FOR BEACHES ALONG
LAKE MICHIGAN IN MANITOWOC COUNTY.
- MAINLY DRY WEATHER WITH ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND LOW
RELATIVE HUMIDITY FOR THE NEXT WEEK, WITH HIGHS MAINLY IN THE
MIDDLE 70S TO MIDDLE 80S.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 153 PM CDT WED MAY 27 2026
A BACK DOOR COLD FRONT OVER NORTHERN WI WILL SHIFT SOUTH ACROSS
THE REGION THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING. SCATTERED SHOWERS
HAVE ALREADY DEVELOPED ALONG THE BOUNDARY. CAMS CONTINUE TO SHOW
THUNDERSTORMS INITIATING ALONG THE BOUNDARY BY AROUND 20Z,
SPREADING SOUTH THROUGH THE REST OF AFTERNOON, THEN EXITING OUR
SOUTHERN COUNTIES IN THE EARLY EVENING. THE ARRIVAL OF COOLER AND
DRIER AIR BEHIND THE COLD FRONT AND E-NE WINDS OFF LAKE MICHIGAN
WILL LIMIT INSTABILITY IN NORTHERN AND EASTERN WI, WITH BETTER
INSTABILITY (SBCAPE 1000-1500) EXPECTED OVER CENTRAL WI AND THE
WESTERN FOX VALLEY. THIS IS ALSO THE AREA WHERE DCAPE CALUES ARE
CURRENTLY HIGHEST (800-1000 J/KG). WITH EFFECTIVE BULK SHEAR
INCREASING TO AROUND 30 KTS NEAR THE COLD FRONT, INGREDIENTS ARE
IN PLACE FOR A FEW STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS, ESPECIALLY IN CENTRAL
WI AND THE WESTERN FOX VALLEY. DAMAGING WINDS AND HAIL WILL BE THE
PRIMARY THREATS.
THE FRONT SHOULD SHIFT SOUTH OF THE REGION EARLY THIS EVENING,
BRINGING A PERIOD OF GUSTY NORTHEAST WINDS TO THE FOX VALLEY AND
LAKESHORE AREAS, A PERIOD OF HIGH WAVES TO OUR SOUTHERNMOST LAKE
MICHIGAN MARINE ZONES, AND A HIGH THREAT OF RIP CURRENTS FOR
MANITOWOC COUNTY BEACHES. A BEACH HAZARDS STATEMENT HAS BEEN
ISSUED FROM THIS EVENING THROUGH EARLY THURSDAY MORNING FOR
MANITOWOC COUNTY.
CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE AND AN OMEGA BLOCK PATTERN WILL BRING
A LONG STRETCH OF MAINLY DRY WEATHER. RIGHT NOW, ONLY SMALL
PRECIPITATION CHANCES ARE EXPECTED WITH A BACK DOOR COLD FRONT
LATE SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY NIGHT.
TTEMPERATURES WILL AVERAGE WELL ABOVE NORMAL THROUGH MUCH OF THE
PERIOD, WITH HIGHS MAINLY IN THE MID 70S TO MID 80S. LOW AFTERNOON
RELATIVE HUMIDITY COULD LEAD TO ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS,
BUT GREEN-UP CONTINUES ACROSS NORTHERN WI AND PINE FUELS HAVE
BECOME LESS VOLATILE, SO IMPACTS MAY NOT BE AS SIGNIFICANT AS THEY
WOULD HAVE BEEN A COUPLE WEEKS AGO.
AVIATION
FOR 00Z TAF ISSUANCE
ISSUED AT 558 PM CDT WED MAY 27 2026
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS, WITH MVFR OR IFR VSBY'S DUE
TO HEAVY RAIN SOUTH OF HIGHWAY 29, WILL COME TO AN END BY 01Z.
OTHERWISE, VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THURSDAY AFTERNOON.
GUSTY NORTHEAST WINDS WILL OVERSPREAD THE ENTIRE REGION BY 03Z
THURSDAY, THEN CONTINUE OVERNIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY AFTERNOON.
GRB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
BEACH HAZARDS STATEMENT FROM 9 PM THIS EVENING TO 3 AM CDT
THURSDAY FOR WIZ050.
DISCUSSION.....KIECKBUSCH
AVIATION.......ECKBERG
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