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FXUS63 KGRB 250330
AFDGRB
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREEN BAY WI
1030 PM CDT THU SEP 24 2026
UPDATED AVIATION PORTION FOR 06Z TAF ISSUANCE
KEY MESSAGES
- PATCHY FOG, LOCALLY DENSE, MAY AGAIN BE POSSIBLE LATE TONIGHT
INTO EARLY FRIDAY MORNING.
- HIGH PRESSURE WILL MAINTAIN MOSTLY DRY WEATHER THROUGH EARLY
NEXT WEEK.
- NEXT WIDESPREAD RAIN CHANCES ARRIVE DURING THE MIDDLE OF NEXT
WEEK.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 1200 PM CDT THU SEP 24 2026
LATEST SURFACE AND RADAR OBS SHOW A BROAD AREA OF LIGHT RAIN
IMPINGING ON NORTHWEST WISCONSIN THIS AFTERNOON WHERE MID-LEVEL
SHORTWAVE AND WEAK MOISTURE CONVERGENCE RESIDE. SCATTERED SHOWERS
SHOULD MAKE IT TO NORTHEAST WISCONSIN BY THIS EVENING, THOUGH ANY
QPF WE MANAGE TO SQUEEZE OUT SHOULD TOP OFF AT A FEW HUNDREDTHS OF
AN INCH AS PRECIP ENCOUNTERS A WALL OF DRY AIR. SIGNAL THEN ONCE
AGAIN EXISTS FOR PATCHY FOG DEVELOPMENT LATE TONIGHT IN THE WAKE
OF THE SHOWERS AS WINDS DECOUPLE AND REMNANT MOISTURE GETS TRAPPED
UNDER NEAR-SURFACE INVERSION. HAVE A SNEAKING SUSPICION THAT FOG
MAY END UP OVERPERFORMING SIMILAR TO THIS MORNING, SO WILL BEAR
MONITORING.
MODELS CONTINUE TO BACK OFF ON RAIN CHANCES OVER THE WEEKEND AS
HUDSON BAY HIGH DOMINATES THE SYNOPTIC PATTERN. AS SUCH, POPS
ARE HELD DOWN TO AROUND 10 TO 20% MAINLY OVER CENTRAL AND NORTH-
CENTRAL WISCONSIN WHERE MODELS SHOW THE GREATEST CHANCE FOR
SHOWERS. STRUNG OUT SURFACE LOW THEN EJECTS OFF INTO NORTHERN
CANADA EARLY FRIDAY MORNING, RESULTING IN SHOWERS SPLITTING TO OUR
NORTH AND SOUTH.
NEXT CHANCES FOR WIDESPREAD STRATIFORM RAIN REMAIN ON TRACK FOR
THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK AS LOW PRESSURE ORGANIZES OVER THE CENTRAL
PLAINS AND DEEPENING TROUGH PASSES OVER THE REGION. THOUGH
ENSEMBLES STILL DIVERGE ON EXACT TIMING OF PRECIP, CONSENSUS SHOWS
PWATS REACHING NEAR 90TH PERCENTILE RELATIVE TO CLIMO, INCREASING
CONFIDENCE IN AT LEAST A SOAKING RAINFALL. PROBABILISTIC GUIDANCE
CURRENTLY SHOWS A 40 TO 50% SIGNAL FOR RECEIVING ONE INCH OF
RAINFALL, THOUGH TRENDS WILL NEED TO CONTINUE TO BE MONITORED.
OTHERWISE, SEASONAL TEMPERATURES IN THE 60S TO LOW 70S PREVAIL
FOR THE EXTENDED.
AVIATION
FOR 06Z TAF ISSUANCE
ISSUED AT 1027 PM CDT THU SEP 24 2026
THERE IS AN AREA OF LIGHT SHOWERS TO MOVING INTO CENTRAL WISCONSIN
LATE THIS EVENING THAT MAY HAVE MINOR IMPACTS AT AUW AND CWA,
HOWEVER, SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED TO DISSIPATE AS THEY MOVE FURTHER EAST
TONIGHT LEAVING A DRY NIGHT AT ATW, GRB, AND MTW. MAIN IMPACTS TO
AVIATION DURING THIS TAF CYCLE WILL REVOLVE AROUND PATCHY DENSE FOG
DEVELOPMENT LATE TONIGHT (AFTER 08Z) INTO EARLY FRIDAY MORNING.
VSBYS MAY DROP DOWN TO LIFR OR EVEN VLIFR MAINLY ACROSS NORTHERN AND
CENTRAL WI. HAVE INCLUDED TEMPO GROUPS FOR FG AT RHI AND BR AT AUW
AND CWA. OTHERWISE, MIDDLE AND HIGH CLOUDS WILL CONTINUE TO PASS
OVER THE REGION AT TIMES THROUGH FRIDAY AFTERNOON.
SOUTHEAST WINDS WILL BECOMING LIGHT AND VARIABLE OVERNIGHT.
GRB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
DISCUSSION.....GOODIN
AVIATION.......GK
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