633
FXUS63 KGRB 231108
AFDGRB
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREEN BAY WI
608 AM CDT SAT OCT 23 2021
UPDATED AVIATION PORTION FOR 12Z TAF ISSUANCE
SHORT TERM...TODAY...TONIGHT
AND SUNDAY
ISSUED AT 251 AM CDT SAT OCT 23 2021
ABUNDANT CLOUD COVER IS CURRENTLY PLAGUING THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES
REGION, AS A MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE TRACKS THROUGH THE AREA. A RIDGE
OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN ACROSS THE REGION AS THIS SHORTWAVE
EXITS TO THE EAST. THE RIDGE WILL ALLOW FOR SOME BREAKS IN THE
CLOUDS ALONG WITH AN EVENTUAL END TO THE LAKE EFFECT SHOWERS
ACROSS NORTH-CENTRAL WISCONSIN AND AROUND DOOR COUNTY AS WINDS
BACK TO THE WEST-NORTHWEST. THE CLEARING MAY BE SHORT LIVED, AS
CONTINUED STEEP LAPSE RATES LEAD TO COME CUMULUS DEVELOPMENT.
TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN COOL TODAY, WITH HIGHS RANGING FROM THE
MIDDLE TO UPPER 40S ACROSS THE NORTH, AND HIGHS AROUND 50 ACROSS
CENTRAL AND EAST-CENTRAL WISCONSIN.
MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS TONIGHT WILL LEAD TO IDEAL
RADIATIONAL COOLING CONDITIONS TONIGHT. LOWS ARE EXPECTED TO RANGE
FROM THE MIDDLE TO UPPER 20S ACROSS NORTH-CENTRAL WISCONSIN, WITH
LOWS IN THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 30S ACROSS EAST-CENTRAL WISCONSIN AND
AROUND 40 ACROSS THE DOOR PENINSULA.
INCREASING CLOUDS ARE EXPECTED ON SUNDAY AS A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
TRACKS THROUGH ILLINOIS. WHILE PREVIOUS MODEL RUNS BROUGHT
PRECIPITATION ACROSS THE FAR SOUTH AND SOME MODELS DO GRAZE THESE
AREAS; INSPECTION OF MODEL SOUNDINGS INDICATED QUITE A BIT OF DRY
AIR IN THE 750 TO 850 MB LEVEL THROUGH SUNDAY AFTERNOON.
THEREFORE, WILL REMOVE POPS ACROSS THE FAR SOUTH AND KEEP THE AREA
DRY WITH THIS FORECAST ISSUANCE AS THE TREND HAS BEEN A BIT
FARTHER SOUTH WITH EACH RUN. HIGHS ON SUNDAY ARE EXPECTED TO RANGE
FROM THE UPPER 40S ACROSS THE NORTH, WITH UPPER 40S TO LOWER 50S
ACROSS CENTRAL AND EAST-CENTRAL WISCONSIN.
LONG TERM
SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY
ISSUED AT 251 AM CDT SAT OCT 23 2021
THE FIRST SYSTEM TO IMPACT THE AREA WILL BE SUNDAY NIGHT INTO
MONDAY AS LOW PRESSURE PASSES TO THE SOUTH OF THE AREA. KEPT
SMALL CHANCES OF SHOWERS ACROSS CENTRAL AND EAST-CENTRAL WISCONSIN
TO ACCOUNT FOR THE NORTHERN EDGE OF THE SYSTEM PASSING TO THE
SOUTH OF THE AREA, AND SOME POTENTIAL FOR SOME LAKE EFFECT RAIN
SHOWERS DUE TO PERSISTENT EAST-NORTHEAST FLOW OFF THE RELATIVELY
WARMER WATERS OF LAKE MICHIGAN. THE GUSTY NORTHEAST WINDS MAY
CREATE DIFFICULT TRAVEL FOR HIGH PROFILE VEHICLES ACROSS THE FOX
VALLEY EAST TO THE LAKESHORE WHERE WINDS MAY GUST TO AROUND 35
MPH.
AFTER THAT SYSTEM DEPARTS, THE MAIN QUESTION IS WHEN THE RAIN WILL
ARRIVE LATER IN THE WEEK. A SLOWER ARRIVAL OF THE RAIN IS EXPECTED
AS THE ECMWF IS INDICATING A CLOSED 500MB LOW DEVELOPING ACROSS
CENTRAL AND EASTERN GREAT LAKES. MEANWHILE, A 500MB TROUGH ACROSS
THE WESTERN UNITED STATES IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP INTO A CLOSED LOW
ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS. IN RESPONSE TO THESE TWO FEATURES, A
SHARP RIDGE IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES
BY THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. THIS SCENARIO WILL REALLY SLOW THE
ARRIVAL OF THE PRECIPITATION. PER COORDINATION WITH SURROUNDING
OFFICES, REMOVED MOST IF NOT ALL THE PRECIPITATION TUESDAY NIGHT
AND WEDNESDAY MORNING. BASED ON THE LATEST MODEL RUNS TONIGHT,
WOULD HAVE REMOVED MOST OF THE PRECIPITATION CHANCES WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT AS WELL. HOWEVER, DID LOWER RAIN
CHANCES FOR NOW PER COORDINATION WITH SURROUNDING OFFICES. LATER
SHIFTS WILL LIKELY TO NEED TO LOWER THEM SOME MORE OR REMOVE RAIN
CHANCES ENTIRELY OVER THE NEXT DAY OR TWO. THE ECMWF FINALLY
BRINGS RAIN INTO THE AREA THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND THURSDAY NIGHT.
TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE AROUND NORMAL, IF NOT A LITTLE BIT ABOVE
OVER THE NEXT WEEK.
AVIATION
FOR 12Z TAF ISSUANCE
ISSUED AT 607 AM CDT SAT OCT 23 2021
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS MUCH OF THE REGION THROUGH THE
TAF PERIOD. SOME MVFR CONDITIONS WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS FAR
NORTH-CENTRAL WISCONSIN WITH LAKE EFFECT CLOUDS AND SHOWERS, WHICH
SHOULD DISSIPATE BY THE AFTERNOON. A BAND OF MID LEVEL CLOUDS WILL
TRACK THROUGH CENTRAL AND EAST-CENTRAL WISCONSIN THIS MORNING,
GIVING WAY TO MOSTLY CLEAR CONDITIONS LATER THIS MORNING AS THE
CLOUDS ERODE FROM NORTH TO SOUTH. WINDS WILL BE LIGHT THROUGH THE
TAF PERIOD.
GRB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
SHORT TERM.....KURIMSKI
LONG TERM......ECKBERG
AVIATION.......KURIMSKI
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