801
FXUS63 KMKX 170023
AFDMKX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MILWAUKEE/SULLIVAN WI
723 PM CDT MON MAR 16 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT OVER SOUTHEASTERN
WISCONSIN THROUGH 9 PM FOR LINGERING BLOWING SNOW, LIGHT
FALLING SNOW, AND SLICK ROADS.
- ADDITIONAL FLURRIES AND LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS MAY OCCUR THIS
TONIGHT.
- A GALE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR ALL OPEN WATERS OF LAKE
MICHIGAN TONIGHT, AND A HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING IS IN
EFFECT EARLY THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING.
- LIGHT ACCUMULATING SNOWFALL WILL OCCUR TUESDAY NIGHT INTO
WEDNESDAY MORNING. 1 TO 2 INCHES OF SNOW ARE EXPECTED ACROSS
THE AREA, WITH 2 INCHES MORE LIKELY SOUTHWEST OF MADISON.
UPDATE
ISSUED 724 PM CDT MON MAR 16 2026
NORTHWESTERLY WINDS WILL SLOWLY DIMINISH THROUGH TONIGHT INTO
EARLY TUESDAY MORNING. BLOWING SNOW WILL CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT
FEW HOURS ACROSS SOUTHEASTERN WISCONSIN WHERE LIGHT SNOW
CONTINUES AND WINDS ARE HIGHEST (AROUND 40 MPH). A WINTER
WEATHER ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT THROUGH 9 PM CDT. BLOWING SNOW
CONCERNS WILL DIMINISH AS WINDS FALL BELOW 30 MPH LATER TONIGHT.
THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS, TEMPERATURES WILL FALL INTO THE
SINGLE DIGITS NEAR LAKE MICHIGAN AND TO NEAR ZERO DEGREES F
INLAND. WITH LIGHT NORTHWESTERLY WINDS CONTINUING AT DAYBREAK,
EXPECT WIND CHILLS IN THE NEGATIVE TEENS EARLY TUESDAY MORNING.
MH
SHORT TERM
ISSUED 243 PM CDT MON MAR 16 2026
TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY:
LIGHT SNOW CONTINUES OVER THE EASTERN HALF OF THE AREA.
VISIBILITIES HAVE LARGELY IMPROVED AND THE BLIZZARD WARNING WILL
LIKELY BE LET GO IN FAVOR OF A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FOR
LINGERING BLOWING SNOW AND SLICK SPOTS. WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO
REMAIN ELEVATED OVER THE AREA INTO THIS EVENING, AND WE WILL
LIKELY RUN THE WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY OVER THE EASTERN HALF OF
THE AREA UNTIL WINDS DROP BELOW 30MPH, WHICH WILL LESSEN THE
BLOWING SNOW THREAT.
OVER THE WESTERN HALF OF THE AREA, SNOW HAS LARGELY ENDED AND
VISIBILITY HAS IMPROVED. THE WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY RUNS UNTIL
4PM THERE, AND WE DON'T FORSEE THAT BEING EXTENDED.
THIS EVENING INTO TONIGHT, WEAK SHORTWAVE IS EXPECTED TO DIVE
SOUTHEAST OVER THE AREA. THIS, COMBINED WITH STEEP RATES IN THE
925 TO 800MB LAYER, MAY CAUSE SOME SHALLOW SNOW SHOWERS CAPABLE
OF FLURRIES AND LIGHT SNOW UNTIL THE WAVES MOVES ALONG AROUND
MIDNIGHT. TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO BE CHILLY TONIGHT AS AN
ARCTIC AIR MASS MOVES IN. LOWS WILL BE AROUND ZERO WITH WIND
CHILLS IN THE NEGATIVE TEENS. COLD TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE
TOMORROW AS THE CENTER OF THE COLD AIR MASS AND HIGH PRESSURE
MOVES OVERHEAD TOMORROW.
AS WE HEAD INTO TUESDAY NIGHT A FAST MOVING SHORTWAVE ALOFT AND
850 TO 700MB WAA AND FGEN WILL DRIVE AN AREA OF SNOW THAT WILL
SLIDE SOUTHEAST OVER THE AREA BETWEEN 7PM TUESDAY AND 7AM
WEDNESDAY. EURO AND GFS ENSEMBLE PROBS SHOW THE BEST CHANCES FOR
HIGHEST AMOUNTS BEING OVER THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY AND SOUTHWEST
OF MADISON, WHERE THE BEST LIFT WILL OCCUR. HERE, 2 INCHES OF
SNOW ARE POSSIBLE, WHILE THE REST OF THE AREA WILL BE IN LINE
FOR 1 INCH. TEMPERATURES THEN RISE TO NEAR 40 ON WEDNESDAY
FOLLOWING THE SNOW, AS SURFACE WARM ADVECTION ON SOUTHWEST WINDS
PUSHES WARMER AIR FROM A BUILDING RIDGE OVER THE PLAINS INTO THE
UPPER MIDWEST.
CMILLER
LONG TERM
ISSUED 227 PM CDT MON MAR 16 2026
WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY:
ANOTHER WEAK WAA WAVE LOOKS POSSIBLE WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO
THURSDAY. WITH THE FORCING BEING NEBULOUS AND THE POSITIONING
PLACING PRECIP ANYWHERE FROM NORTHEAST WI TO CENTRAL WI, THE NBM
FEATHERS IN CHANCE POPS OF 15 TO 30% OVER THE REGION EARLY
THURSDAY MORNING. GIVEN TEMPERATURES PROFILES, IF WE RECEIVE ANY
PRECIPITATION, IT'LL FALL AS A LIGHT WINTRY MIX OR LIGHT
FREEZING RAIN.
BEYOND, A RIDGE BUILDS OVER THE PLAINS AND HIGH PRESSURE KEEPS
US RELATIVELY DRY AS COUPLE WAVES PASS OVER NORTHERN WISCONSIN
AND THE UP FRIDAY AND SATURDAY. SUNDAY, A MORE SUBSTANTIAL
CLIPPER SYSTEM MAY PASS OVER SOUTHERN WI PROVIDING A ROUND OF
MIXED PRECIP, THOUGH THIS IS WAVE IS MOST SUBSTANTIAL ON THE
ECMWF. WHILE TEMPERATURES WILL GRADUALLY WARM TO THE LOW TO MID
50S HEADING INTO THE WEEKEND AS A RESULT OF THE RIDGE, THIS
LATE WEEKEND STORM SYSTEM MAY KNOCK TEMPERATURES BACK TOWARD
NORMAL FOR THE START OF NEXT WEEK.
CMILLER
AVIATION
ISSUED 724 PM CDT MON MAR 16 2026
VFR CONDITIONS PREVAIL ACROSS SOUTHERN WISCONSIN THROUGHOUT
TONIGHT AND TUESDAY. SOME BLOWING SNOW CONTINUES ACROSS
SBM/MKE/ENW/UES AS WINDS REMAIN ABOVE 30 KT FOR THE NEXT FEW
HOURS, BUT WINDS WILL SLOWLY DIMINISH TO A STEADY 12 KT BY
TUESDAY MORNING. WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO DIMINISH THROUGH TUESDAY
MORNING, THEN WILL SHIFT SOUTHWESTERLY TUESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH
TUESDAY NIGHT. SNOW AND MVFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PROGRESS
WEST TO EAST DURING THE LATE OVERNIGHT HOURS ON TUESDAY.
MH
MARINE
ISSUED 210 PM CDT MON MAR 16 2026
LOW PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE NORTHWEST CROSSING OVER LAKE HURON
LATER THIS AFTERNOON. GALES ARE CURRENTLY ONGOING OVER THE MUCH OF
THE LAKE WITH STORM FORCE GUSTS LESS CERTAIN AT THIS POINT. WE
WILL MAINTAIN THE STORM WARNING AT THIS TIME FOR SOME AREAS SEEING
CLOSE TO STORM FORCE GUSTS. WE WILL END THE STORM WARNING A BIT
EARLIER (0Z) TO ACCOUNT FOR THE LACK OF SIGNIFICANT WIND GUSTS AT
THIS TIME. SNOW HAS SLOWED OVER THE LAKE WITH MOSTLY LIGHT SNOW AT
THIS POINT BUT SOME DROPS IN VISIBILITIES MAY STILL BE EXPECTED
AT TIMES
COLDER TEMPERATURES TODAY WILL BRINGING HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY TO
THE ENTIRE LAKE, CONTINUING INTO TUESDAY GIVEN THE FRIGID
TEMPERATURES A BREEZY WINDS EXPECTED OVERNIGHT. LOW PRESSURE WILL
GRADUALLY EXIT INTO ONTARIO LATER THIS AFTERNOON. GALES AND HEAVY
FREEZING SPRAY ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH MUCH OF TONIGHT
AND PERHAPS LINGERING INTO TUESDAY MORNING, PARTICULARLY WITH
FREEZING SPRAY. NEARSHORE GALES WILL LIKELY END BY THE MID TO LATE
EVENING AS HIGHER WINDS WITH THE PRESSURE GRADIENT SHIFT EAST.
WINDS WILL SLOWLY DIMINISH THROUGH TUESDAY, SHIFTING TO SOUTHERLY
AHEAD OF ANOTHER SYSTEM TUESDAY AFTERNOON INTO TUESDAY NIGHT.
WINDS SHIFT TO SOUTHWESTERLY AS THE SYSTEM PROGRESSES THROUGH
ONTARIO WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY MORNING, THEN TO
NORTHWESTERLY ON THURSDAY AS A COLD FRONT PROGRESSES SOUTHEASTWARD
THROUGH THE REGION.
KUROSKI
MKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
WI...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY...WIZ051-WIZ052-WIZ058-WIZ059-WIZ060-
WIZ064-WIZ065-WIZ066-WIZ070-WIZ071-WIZ072 UNTIL 9 PM
MONDAY.
LM...GALE WARNING...LMZ080-LMZ673-LMZ675-LMZ777-LMZ779-LMZ874-
LMZ876-LMZ878 UNTIL 7 AM TUESDAY.
HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING...LMZ080-LMZ261-LMZ362-LMZ364-
LMZ366-LMZ563-LMZ565-LMZ567-LMZ643-LMZ644-LMZ645-LMZ646-
LMZ669-LMZ671-LMZ673-LMZ675-LMZ777-LMZ779-LMZ868-LMZ870-
LMZ872-LMZ874-LMZ876-LMZ878 UNTIL 11 AM TUESDAY.
GALE WARNING...LMZ261-LMZ362-LMZ364-LMZ366-LMZ563-LMZ565-
LMZ567-LMZ669-LMZ671-LMZ868-LMZ870-LMZ872 UNTIL 7 AM
TUESDAY.
STORM WARNING...LMZ261-LMZ362-LMZ364-LMZ366-LMZ563-LMZ565-
LMZ567-LMZ669-LMZ671-LMZ868-LMZ870-LMZ872 UNTIL 7 PM
MONDAY.
GALE WARNING...LMZ643-LMZ644-LMZ645-LMZ646 UNTIL 1 AM TUESDAY.
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