513
FXUS63 KMKX 241812
AFDMKX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MILWAUKEE/SULLIVAN WI
112 PM CDT SAT OCT 24 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES & RAIN-FREE CONDITIONS CONTINUE
THROUGH THE REST OF THE WEEKEND.
- TEMPERATURES CLOSER TO NORMAL EARLY WEEK, TRENDING BACK ABOVE NORMAL
THROUGH AT LEAST MID-WEEK. LIGHT RAIN CHANCES RETURN
WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY.
- ADDITIONAL RAIN CHANCES RETURN NEXT WEEKEND.
SHORT TERM
ISSUED 115 PM CDT SAT OCT 24 2026
THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT:
SYNOPSIS/MESOANALYSIS: A RIDGE OF UPPER HIGH PRESSURE IS PIVOTING
ACROSS THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES THIS AFTERNOON, WITH ATTENDANT
SUBSIDENCE ALLOWING FOR MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES & QUICKLY-CLIMBING
SURFACE TEMPERATURES. FURTHER TO THE WEST, 1 PM SURFACE OBSERVATIONS
SHOW A COLD FRONT EXTENDING ALONG AN APPROXIMATE INTERNATIONAL
FALLS, MN - SIOUX CITY, IA AXIS. EXTENDING FROM AN AREA OF DEEPENING
LOW PRESSURE OVER NORTHERN MANITOBA, SAID COLD FRONT HAS MAINTAINED
A QUICK EASTWARD PACE THROUGH THE FIRST HALF OF TODAY, WITH A
SIMILAR SPEED OF PROGRESSION CONTINUING THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF
THIS AFTERNOON. THIS FORWARD PROGRESS WILL TAKE THE FRONT INTO
NORTHERN WISCONSIN BY THIS EVENING. THE BOUNDARY WILL SLOW
CONSIDERABLY OVERNIGHT AS ITS PARENT LOW PRESSURE OCCLUDES NEAR THE
HUDSON BAY & HIGH PRESSURE SIMULTANEOUSLY STRENGTHENS OVER THE OHIO
VALLEY. SUBSTANTIALLY SLOWER PROGRESSION SPEED WILL KEEP THE FRONT
NORTH OF THE REGION THROUGH MOST OF THE DAY SUNDAY, WITH THE
BOUNDARY FINALLY MOVING INTO & THROUGH SOUTHERN WISCONSIN SUNDAY
NIGHT. POST-FRONTAL NORTH-NORTHEAST WINDS WILL USHER MODESTLY COOLER
AND DRIER AIR INTO SOUTHERN WISCONSIN BY DAYBREAK MONDAY. NO RAIN IS
ANTICIPATED DURING THE FRONTAL PASSAGE.
TONIGHT: MID-UPPER LEVEL CLOUDS WILL THICKEN AREAWIDE THANKS TO
INCREASING WARM ADVECTION AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING COLD FRONT. WORTH
NOTING THAT A HANDFUL OF 12Z SATURDAY CAMS SPIT OUT SOME LIGHT QPF
TOWARD CENTRAL WISCONSIN WITHIN THIS CLOUD COVER, THOUGH LARGE DEW
POINT DEPRESSIONS IN THE LOWER HALF OF THE COLUMN CAST SERIOUS DOUBT
ON ANY PRECIP REACHING THE SURFACE. HAVE THUS KEPT THE FORECAST DRY
THROUGH TONIGHT, BUT WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR TRENDS.
SUNDAY: EXPECTING ANOTHER DAY OF WELL ABOVE-NORMAL TEMPERATURES WITH
SOUTHERN WISCONSIN STILL FIRMLY WITHIN THE PREFRONTAL WARM SECTOR &
AFFILIATED SOUTHWESTERLY SURFACE FLOW. HAVE BUMPED HIGH TEMPS UP A
FEW DEGREES AREAWIDE GIVEN THIS FAVORABLE POSITIONING.
QUIGLEY
LONG TERM
ISSUED 115 PM CDT SAT OCT 24 2026
MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY:
SYNOPSIS: COOLER TEMPERATURES WILL PREVAIL DURING THE DAY MONDAY IN
THE WAKE OF THE SUNDAY EVENING/NIGHT COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE. SOUTHERLY
TO EVENTUALLY SOUTHWESTERLY SURFACE FLOW WILL STEADILY RETURN
TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY, ALLOWING FOR A STEADY WARM UP BY THE MIDDLE
OF THE WORK WEEK. CURRENTLY CENTERED OFF THE BRITISH COLUMBIA COAST,
AN UPPER TROUGH WILL SLOWLY PROGRESS FROM THE CASCADES INTO THE
NORTHERN ROCKIES MONDAY INTO TUESDAY. THE TROUGH WILL EJECT INTO THE
NORTHERN PLAINS TUESDAY NIGHT, QUICKLY PROGRESSING TOWARD THE
SOUTHERN HUDSON BAY VICINITY BY THURSDAY MORNING. THE TROUGH WILL
INDUCE SURFACE CYCLOGENESIS OVER THE DAKOTAS TUESDAY NIGHT, WITH THE
DEVELOPING SURFACE LOW MOVING NORTHEAST TOWARD THE HUDSON BAY BY
THURSDAY. THE LOW WILL PULL A COLD FRONT ACROSS SOUTHERN WISCONSIN
SOME POINT WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON INTO THURSDAY MORNING, WITH FORCING
ALONG THE FRONT PROVIDING CHANCES FOR LIGHT RAIN. MID-LEVEL HEIGHT
FALLS WILL SLOWLY BUT STEADILY BUILD INTO THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI
VALLEY NEXT WEEKEND, SUPPORTING ADDITIONAL RAIN POTENTIAL.
MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY: FORECAST CONTINUES TO TREND RAIN-FREE AS
AN UPPER SHORTWAVE STEADILY TRENDS ALONG A MORE NORTHWESTERLY
TRACK/AWAY FROM SOUTHERN WISCONSIN. WITH MODELED MID-LEVEL HEIGHT
FALLS & LOW LEVEL FRONTOGENESIS AND TEMP ADVECTION SIGNALS
CONTINUING TO SHIFT AWAY FROM THE AREA, EMERGING QPF-FREE FORECASTS
FROM THE NBM THUS APPEAR REASONABLE & HAVE BEEN MAINTAINED IN THE
AFTERNOON UPDATE. WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR TRENDS IN COMING UPDATES.
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON INTO THURSDAY MORNING: IN CONTRAST TO 24 HOURS
AGO, GLOBAL DETERMINISTIC AND ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE IS COMING INTO MUCH
BETTER AGREEMENT REGARDING LARGE SCALE PATTERN EVOLUTION. CONFIDENCE
IN A WEAK COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE IS THUS INCREASING DURING THIS TIME
FRAME, WITH MODELED PRECIPITABLE WATER & MOISTURE TRANSPORT
SUPPORTIVE OF AT LEAST SOME LIGHT RAIN POTENTIAL. LIMITING FACTOR
WILL BE THE MAGNITUDE OF AVAILABLE FRONTAL CONVERGENCE, AS THE
BOUNDARY MAY BE ENTERING A DECAYING PHASE AS IT ARRIVES INTO
SOUTHERN WISCONSIN. AS SUCH, NBM'S CURRENT ~20-40% PRECIP
PROBABILITIES APPEAR REPRESENTATIVE TO THE SETUP, AND WILL BE
ITERATED OFF OF AS THIS PORTION OF THE PERIOD DRAWS CLOSER. INITIAL
PROBABILISTIC QPF POINTS TOWARD TOTALS REMAINING AT OR BELOW A TENTH
OF AN INCH.
QUIGLEY
AVIATION
ISSUED 115 PM CDT SAT OCT 24 2026
VFR FLIGHT CATEGORIES PREVAIL THROUGH THE PERIOD AT ALL TERMINALS.
UPPER HIGH PRESSURE IS SHIFTING INTO THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES THIS
AFTERNOON, ALLOWING FOR MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES IN MOST LOCATIONS. DO
EXPECT UPPER LEVEL CLOUDS TO GRADUALLY FILL IN THROUGH THE SECOND
HALF OF THE AFTERNOON AS A COLD FRONT BEGINS TO APPROACH THE REGION
FROM THE NORTHERN PLAINS. NEAR-TERM FORECASTS HAVE BEEN AMENDED TO
REFLECT THE COMBINATION OF CURRENT OBS & SHORT-TERM EXPECTATIONS.
EXPECT MID-UPPER CLOUDS TO THICKEN FURTHER OVERNIGHT AS THE
AFOREMENTIONED COLD FRONT MOVES INTO NORTHERN WISCONSIN. WINDS WILL
SHIFT OUT OF THE SOUTHWEST SUNDAY MORNING AS THE BOUNDARY BEGINS ITS
APPROACH FROM THE NORTH. EXPECTING A NORTH-NORTHEAST WIND SHIFT POST-
FRONT, WITH THE ANTICIPATED WIND SHIFT JUST BEYOND THE CURRENT
FORECAST PERIOD. WILL BE ADDING MENTIONS IN SUBSEQUENT UPDATES.
QUIGLEY
MARINE
ISSUED 115 PM CDT SAT OCT 24 2026
LOW PRESSURE NEAR 990 MB WILL PROGRESS TOWARD THE HUDSON BAY THIS
EVENING. PROGRESSION OF THE LOW WILL MAINTAIN GENERALLY SOUTHERLY
FLOW ACROSS THE WATERS, WITH GUSTS BETWEEN 25-30 KNOTS POSSIBLE OVER
THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE LAKE THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT. CAN'T RULE
OUT AN ISOLATED GUST APPROACHING GALE FORCE DURING THIS TIME FRAME,
WITH CONDITIONS NOT WIDESPREAD ENOUGH FOR HEADLINES.
WINDS WILL TREND SOUTHWESTERLY WHILE STEADILY WEAKENING AHEAD OF AN
APPROACHING COLD FRONT ON SUNDAY. CURRENTLY EXPECTING THE FRONT TO
MOVE SOUTH ACROSS LAKE MICHIGAN SUNDAY EVENING AND NIGHT, BRINGING A
BREEZY NORTHEAST WIND SHIFT. GALES ARE NOT ANTICIPATED DURING THE
FRONTAL PASSAGE, WITH ANY ISOLATED RAIN SHOWERS EXPECTED TO REMAIN
OVER THE FAR NORTHERN PART OF THE LAKE. BREEZY NORTHEAST WINDS WILL
CONTINUE THROUGH MONDAY AS 1038 MB HIGH PRESSURE SLIDES INTO ONTARIO
FROM THE CANADIAN GREAT PLAINS. WINDS WILL TREND EASTERLY AND
EVENTUALLY SOUTH TO SOUTHWESTERLY TUESDAY INTO THURSDAY AS THE
AFOREMENTIONED HIGH SHIFTS INTO THE NORTHEASTERN UNITED STATES.
WIDESPREAD RAIN CHANCES RETURN WEDNESDAY INTO FRIDAY.
A BRIEF PERIOD OF SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS IS EXPECTED THIS
AFTERNOON & EVENING IN FAR NORTHERN NEARSHORE ZONES. A SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT BETWEEN 12-10 PM CDT FROM PORT WASHINGTON
NORTH TO SHEBOYGAN. ADDITIONAL, MORE WIDESPREAD SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
CONDITIONS ARE ANTICIPATED BEHIND A COLD FRONT MONDAY INTO TUESDAY,
WITH HEADLINES BECOMING NECESSARY IN LATER FORECASTS. WILL BE
MONITORING FOR FURTHER SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS LATER NEXT
WEEK WITH LAKE MICHIGAN POSITIONED BETWEEN AREAS OF HIGH & LOW
PRESSURE/WITHIN AN ELEVATED GRADIENT WIND FIELD.
QUIGLEY
MKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
WI...NONE.
LM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY...LMZ643 UNTIL 10 PM SATURDAY.
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