363
FXUS63 KMKX 270313
AFDMKX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MILWAUKEE/SULLIVAN WI
913 PM CST MON JAN 26 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- BRIEF PERIOD OF LIGHT SNOW POSSIBLE TOWARD EAST CENTRAL WI
LATE THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT BUT ONLY A DUSTING IS
POSSIBLE. FLURRIES ELSEWHERE.
- COLD WIND CHILLS BELOW ZERO WILL PREVAIL THROUGH MUCH OF THE
WEEK BUT REMAIN ABOVE ADVISORY CRITERIA.
UPDATE
ISSUED 912 PM CST MON JAN 26 2026
AN AREA OF VERY LIGHT SNOW IS OCCURRING OVER THE UPPER FOX
RIVER VALLEY AND THROUGH NORTH CENTRAL WI. THIS IS OCCURRING
WITHIN LOW TO MID LEVEL WARM ADVECTION SUPPORTED ALOFT BY A
VORTICITY MAXIMUM AND THE LEFT EXIT REGION OF A NWLY 135 KT JET
STREAK. FOND DU LAC AND SHEBOYGAN COULD BRIEFLY GET CLIPPED BY
THIS AREA OF VERY LIGHT SNOW. THE COLD FRONT WILL THEN FOLLOW
FROM 07-11Z ACROSS SRN WI. FLURRIES WILL BECOME POSSIBLE AS LOW
LEVEL LAPSE RATES STEEPEN. SKIES SHOULD THEN GRADUALLY CLEAR TUE
AFTERNOON AS COLDER AND DRIER AIR ARRIVES. THE AIRMASS WILL
REMAIN VERY COLD WHILE WIND CHILLS WILL REMAIN BELOW ZERO.
GEHRING
SHORT TERM
ISSUED 251 PM CST MON JAN 26 2026
TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT:
LOW PRESSURE WILL TRACK ACROSS LAKE SUPERIOR TONIGHT. THE
ASSOCIATED TROUGH/COLD FRONT WILL SWEEP THROUGH SOUTHERN WI
OVERNIGHT. EXPECT GUSTY SOUTHWEST WINDS TO DEVELOP OVER SOUTHERN
WI BY EARLY EVENING AHEAD OF THIS TROUGH, THEN BECOME WEST-
NORTHWEST BEHIND IT LATE TONIGHT. GUSTS UP TO 30 MPH ARE
POSSIBLE LATE THIS EVENING. A BRIEF PERIOD OF LIGHT SNOW OR
FLURRIES IS EXPECTED ALONG THE FRONT, AROUND THE MIDNIGHT
TIMEFRAME.
THE LOW LEVEL FRONTOGENESIS IS PRETTY WEAK ALONG THIS FRONT,
AND THERE IS A BRIEF PERIOD LATE TONIGHT WHERE THERE IS AN
UPTICK IN THE MID LEVEL FGEN, BUT THINGS ARE NOT COMING TOGETHER
WELL ENOUGH TO BE CONFIDENT IN MEASURABLE SNOW OVER SOUTHERN WI.
TOWARD CENTRAL WI, UP TO A HALF INCH OF DRY, POWDERY SNOW LOOKS
POSSIBLE, MAINLY BETWEEN 10PM AND 1AM. ANY ACCUMULATION ON THE COLD
ROADWAYS COULD CREATE SLIPPERY CONDITIONS. LOWER CLOUDS MAY
SPREAD INTO SOUTHERN WI AROUND DAYBREAK AND THEN DISSIPATE
DURING THE AFTERNOON. FLURRIES ARE POSSIBLE WITH THESE CLOUDS,
AS THEY WILL BE WITHIN THE SNOW GROWTH ZONE.
THE BRISK NORTHWESTERLY WINDS AND COLD AIR ADVECTION TUESDAY
MORNING WILL KEEP TEMPS STEADY IN THE SINGLE DIGITS ABOVE ZERO.
WIND CHILLS WILL BE IN THE NEGATIVE TEENS. LOWS TUE NT WILL BE
IN THE NEGATIVE SINGLE DIGITS WITH SLIGHTLY LIGHTER WINDS.
CRONCE
LONG TERM
ISSUED 251 PM CST MON JAN 26 2026
WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY:
CYCLONIC FLOW WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE UPPER GREAT LAKES WED
THROUGH FRI. SUBTLE RIPPLES IN THE MID LEVELS (SHORTWAVES) WILL
BRING US PERIODS OF MID LEVEL CLOUDS AND POTENTIALLY LOW CLOUDS
AT TIMES. CANNOT RULE OUT PERIODS OF FLURRIES, BUT TIMING THOSE
WILL BE LEFT TO THE SHORT TERM. WHEN A MORE AMPLIFIED UPPER
TROUGH SWINGS DOWN THROUGH WI THU NT, A LAKE EFFECT SNOW BAND
MAY BRUSH SOUTHEAST WI AT TIMES FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY.
A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE WILL BRING OUR NEXT CHANCE OF
MEASURABLE SNOW ON SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT. MOISTURE LOOKS
LIMITED WITH THIS SYSTEM.
CRONCE
AVIATION
ISSUED 912 PM CST MON JAN 26 2026
MID LEVEL CLOUDS WILL TRANSITION TO 3.5-6.0 KFT LATE THIS
EVENING INTO THE OVERNIGHT. AREAS OF VERY LIGHT SNOW AND MVFR
CIGS MAY OCCUR TOWARD EAST CENTRAL WI LATE THIS EVENING INTO THE
EARLY MORNING HOURS. FLURRIES WILL THEN DEVELOP BEHIND A COLD
FRONT DURING THE EARLY MORNING HOURS WITH AREAS OF MVFR CIGS
POSSIBLE THROUGHOUT SRN WI AND THROUGH THE MORNING. FOR TUE
AFTERNOON CLOUD COVER WILL DECREASE WITH VFR CONDITIONS BECOMING
PREVALENT.
GEHRING
MARINE
ISSUED 251 PM CST MON JAN 26 2026
ELEVATED WAVES AND COLD TEMPERATURES WILL SUPPORT MODERATE TO
HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY THROUGH TUESDAY AFTERNOON. A HEAVY FREEZING
SPRAY WARNING IS IN EFFECT UNTIL 6 PM CST TUESDAY.
THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE NEARSHORE
AREAS ADJACENT TO SOUTHEAST WISCONSIN THROUGH TUESDAY AFTERNOON.
A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE WILL CROSS LAKE SUPERIOR TONIGHT.
GUSTY SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL DEVELOP BY EARLY EVENING, VEER TO THE
WEST OVERNIGHT, AND TO THE NORTHWEST TUESDAY MORNING. A 3 TO 6
HOUR PERIOD OF GALE FORCE GUSTS UP TO 35 KT IS EXPECTED BETWEEN
9 PM AND 3 AM CST, MAINLY OVER THE SOUTH HALF. WE HELD OFF
ISSUING A GALE WARNING DUE TO THE MARGINAL AND BRIEF NATURE OF
THIS EVENT.
DIMINISHING WINDS WILL TREND WEST-NORTHWESTERLY TUESDAY AFTERNOON
AND NIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE NORTHERN GREAT
PLAINS. WINDS WILL GRADUALLY TAPER WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY AS
SAID AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE MOVES INTO THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI
RIVER VALLEY. STRONG HIGH PRESSURE WILL SET UP OVER THE
NORTHERN PLAINS ON FRIDAY AND EXPAND ACROSS THE UPPER GREAT
LAKES OVER THE WEEKEND.
CRONCE
MKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
WI...NONE.
LM...HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING...LMZ080-LMZ261-LMZ362-LMZ364-
LMZ366-LMZ563-LMZ565-LMZ567-LMZ669-LMZ671-LMZ673-LMZ675-
LMZ777-LMZ779-LMZ868-LMZ870-LMZ872-LMZ874-LMZ876-LMZ878
UNTIL 6 PM TUESDAY.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY...LMZ643-LMZ644-LMZ645-LMZ646 UNTIL 6 PM
TUESDAY.
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