761
FXUS63 KMKX 301007
AFDMKX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MILWAUKEE/SULLIVAN WI
507 AM CDT THU JUL 30 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- WARM AND HUMID CONDITIONS GRADUALLY RETURNING THROUGH TONIGHT.
- CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND WEAK THUNDERSTORMS AT TIMES FROM
FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT (65-85% CHANCES). CHANCES
GRADUALLY TAPER DOWN THROUGH SATURDAY.
UPDATE
ISSUED 510 AM CDT THU JUL 30 2026
HIGH PRESSURE IS CENTERED NEAR THE WISCONSIN-ILLNOIS BORDER THIS
MORNING, RESULTING IN LIGHT/CALM WINDS AND CLEAR SKIES. DESPITE
WIDESPREAD BOUNDARY LAYER DECOUPLING ACROSS SOUTHERN WISCONSIN,
PROXIMITY OF THE HIGH & ATTENDANT LOW LEVEL SUBSIDENCE HAVE HELD
VISIBILITIES IN CHECK ACROSS THE MAJORITY OF THE REGION. LONE
EXCEPTION IS IN THE WISCONSIN VALLEY, WHERE VALLEY FOG HAS
FORMED OVER THE LAST COUPLE HOURS. HAVE THUS CONTINUED FOG
MENTIONS OVER THIS PART OF THE AREA THROUGH SUNRISE, WITH THE
EXPECTATION BEING FOR LARGELY EVERYWHERE ELSE TO REMAIN FOG-
FREE. CAN'T ENTIRELY RULE OUT AN ISOLATED POCKET OF FOG IN LOW-
LYING SPOTS OR IN FIELDS FURTHER EAST, THOUGH EXTREMELY SHALLOW
MOISTURE DEPTH IS MORE LIKELY TO PROMOTE WET GRASS/SURFACES
RATHER THAN FOG. HAVE THUS HELD ANY MENTIONS OUT OF THE
FORECAST.
REMNANT NOCTURNAL MCS ACTIVITY CONTINUES OVER THE WESTERN
UPPER PENINSULA AT THE CURRENT HOUR, WITH CONVECTION EXPECTED TO
STEADILY DECAY ACROSS NORTHEASTERN WISCONSIN THIS MORNING AS IT
OUTRUNS THE MUCAPE RESERVOIR FEEDING IT. PRECIP PROBS THUS
REMAIN WELL NORTH OF THE AREA THROUGH TODAY. DEEPER MOISTURE
WILL TRY TO WORK BACK TOWARD THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON, THOUGH IT
WILL BE BATTLING LINGERING HIGH PRESSURE & DRY AIR AS IT
ATTEMPTS TO DO SO. THUS CONTINUE TO HOLD BETTER DEW POINT
RETURNS OFF UNTIL TONIGHT IN THE LATEST FORECAST UPDATE.
QUIGLEY
SHORT TERM
ISSUED 1154 PM CDT WED JUL 29 2026
REST OF TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT:
EXPECT MORE DIURNAL CUMULUS CLOUDS THURSDAY, INCREASING FROM
WEST TO EAST AS DEWPOINTS CREEP UP INTO THE LOWER 60S.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE WARMER, JUMPING INTO THE UPPER 80S. WHILE
THE HEAT INDICES WILL BASICALLY MATCH THE TEMPERATURES, IT WILL
FEEL VERY WARM DUE TO THE LIGHT WINDS AND SUNSHINE.
WHILE SMOKE IS EXPECTED TO BE IN THE HIGHER PARTS OF THE
ATMOSPHERE, IT SHOULD NOT HINDER THE SURFACE VISIBILITY. THE
HRRR SMOKE MODEL FORECAST FOR TOMORROW IS ONLY SHOWING VALUES
FOR VERTICALLY INTEGRATED SMOKE THAT WE ALREADY HAD TODAY, WHICH
DID NOT CAUSE REDUCED VISIBILITY.
THURSDAY NIGHT LOWS WILL BE IN THE MID 60S WITH A LIGHT
SOUTHERLY BREEZE. A MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE (UPPER) TROUGH WILL
APPROACH FROM THE DAKOTAS AND BRING INCREASING MID AND HIGH
CLOUDS TO SOUTHERN WI. LOW LEVELS (UP TO 15KFT) WILL REMAIN VERY
DRY THROUGH THE NIGHT.
CRONCE
LONG TERM
ISSUED 1154 PM CDT WED JUL 29 2026
FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY:
THAT UPPER TROUGH WILL SLOWLY TRACK ACROSS EASTERN MN, WI,
NORTHERN IL, AND MI/IN FROM FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY. THERE IS
ONLY WEAK SUPPORT OF THIS TROUGH IN THE JET STREAM LEVEL. AT THE
SURFACE, LOW PRESSURE WILL TRACK FROM THE SD/NE BORDER FRIDAY
MORNING, THROUGH IA ON FRIDAY, AND ACROSS IL FRI NT INTO SAT.
THE VERY SLOW MOVEMENT OF THIS SYSTEM IS DUE TO THE WEAK UPPER
DYNAMICS. THE SURFACE LOW ALSO GETS QUITE DISPLACED FROM THE MID
LEVEL LOW DURING THIS TIME. MODEL PROFILES SHOW THE POTENTIAL
FOR WEAK AND SHALLOW INSTABILITY AT TIMES, BUT NOTHING NEAR
STRONG/UNSTABLE. THE CHANCE FOR LIGHTNING IS QUESTIONABLE FOR
SOUTHERN WI GIVEN THESE PROFILES.
WHILE ALL OF THIS SUGGESTS A VERY WEAK SYSTEM FOR THE UPPER
MIDWEST, THE MODELS ARE ALL PRODUCING HIGH AMOUNTS OF PRECIP. I
AM HESITANT TO BUY INTO THIS IDEA GIVEN THE LACK OF CONVECTION
OR STRONG SYNOPTIC FORCING. THE LEADING EDGE OF THE PRECIP IS
EXPECTED TO MOVE INTO SOUTH CENTRAL WI BY MID FRIDAY MORNING AND
REACH THE LAKESHORE OF SOUTHEAST WI AROUND MID AFTERNOON. IT
WILL BE ENCOUNTERING DRY AIR, BUT WE ARE EXPECTING A SOLID
PERIOD OF A SATURATED COLUMN OF AIR TO AFFECT ALL AREAS OF
SOUTHERN WI BETWEEN FRI AFTERNOON AND SATURDAY MORNING.
SO CONFIDENCE IS INCREASING FOR A PERIOD OF STEADY LIGHT RAIN,
BUT I AM NOT EXPECTING A DROUGHT-BUSTING RAIN. SEVERAL ENSEMBLES
HAVE ONLY A 35% CHANCE OF EXCEEDING A HALF INCH IN 24 HR NORTH
OF I-94, WITH HIGHER CONFIDENCE (UP TO 85%) SOUTH OF THERE. THIS
MIGHT BE TOO GENEROUS BASED ON THE ANTICIPATED RAINFALL RATES.
THERE SHOULD BE A PRETTY TIGHT GRADIENT OF PRECIP TOTALS ACROSS
SOUTHERN WI BY THE END OF THIS EVENT, RANGING FROM HIGHEST NEAR
THE WI/IL BORDER AND LOWEST TOWARD EAST CENTRAL WI.
THE UPPER TROUGH AND RESULTANT RAIN SHOULD CLEAR SOUTH CENTRAL
WI BY MIDDAY SATURDAY AND SOUTHEAST WI BY AT LEAST LATE
AFTERNOON. HIGH PRESSURE WILL SPREAD BACK INTO SOUTHERN WI ON
SUNDAY AND DOMINATE THROUGH TUESDAY. A WEAK UPPER TROUGH WILL
TRY TO BRING SOME LIGHT RAIN OR SPRINKLES TO THE STATE ON
TUESDAY AFTERNOON/NIGHT, BUT THAT IS LOOKING WEAK AND DRY.
CRONCE
AVIATION
ISSUED 510 AM CDT THU JUL 30 2026
VFR FLIGHT CATEGORIES PREVAIL THROUGH THE PERIOD AT ALL
TERMINALS. CURRENTLY LIGHT/VARIABLE WINDS WILL PICK UP TO
BETWEEN 5-10 KNOTS TODAY, WITH LINGERING HIGH PRESSURE LIMITING
ANY GREATER VALUES OR GUSTS. EXPECT FAIR WEATHER CUMULUS
DEVELOPMENT THROUGH THE PEAK HEATING OF THE DAY. WINDS WILL
TREND VARIABLE ONCE MORE OVERNIGHT AS UPPER CLOUDS BEGIN TO
BUILD IN FROM THE WEST.
QUIGLEY
MARINE
ISSUED 1154 PM CDT WED JUL 29 2026
LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS WILL TAKE ON A SOUTHERLY COMPONENT BY
THURSDAY AFTERNOON AS HIGH PRESSURE AROUND 30.0 INCHES STARTS TO
DRIFT TOWARD THE LOWER GREAT LAKES. LOW PRESSURE AROUND 29.7
INCHES WILL TRACK ACROSS IOWA FRIDAY AND THROUGH SOUTHERN
ILLINOIS BY SATURDAY MORNING. BREEZY NORTHEAST WINDS WILL DEVELOP
SATURDAY AND SHOULD CONTINUE THROUGH SUNDAY AFTERNOON AS HIGH
PRESSURE OF 30.0 INCHES BUILDS OVER LAKE SUPERIOR.
CRONCE
MKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
WI...NONE.
LM...NONE.
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