736  
FXUS63 KMKX 060230  
AFDMKX  
 
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION  
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MILWAUKEE/SULLIVAN WI  
930 PM CDT THU JUN 5 2025  
   
KEY MESSAGES
 
 
- AN AIR QUALITY ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT UNTIL NOON FRIDAY ALONG  
THE LAKE MICHIGAN SHORELINE DUE TO WILDFIRE SMOKE.  
 
- MAINLY DRY WEATHER IS LIKELY THROUGH FRIDAY, WITH A RETURN OF  
SHOWER AND STORM CHANCES SATURDAY AFTERNOON INTO MONDAY.  
 
- TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN WITHIN A FEW DEGREES OF NORMAL  
THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK.  
 

 
   
UPDATE
 
 
ISSUED 930 PM CDT THU JUN 5 2025  
 
NO MAJOR UPDATES TO THE FORECAST AS THINGS REMAIN VERY QUIET  
TONIGHT. NO FURTHER VISIBILITY CONCERNS FROM SMOKE THOUGH AIR  
QUALITY REMAINS MODERATE TO UNHEALTHY FOR SENSITIVE GROUPS THIS  
EVENING. AIR QUALITY ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT.  
 
KUROSKI  
 

 
   
SHORT TERM
 
 
ISSUED 227 PM CDT THU JUN 5 2025  
 
TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT:  
 
CAMS WITH NEAR SURFACE SMOKE CONCENTRATIONS CONTINUE TO DEPICT  
CLEARING CONDITIONS INTO THIS EVENING ALLOWING US A SHORT REPRIEVE  
IN AIR QUALITY. HOWEVER, ADDITIONAL SMOKE IS EXPECTED TONIGHT INTO  
TOMORROW MORNING AMID BROAD HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE UPPER GREAT  
LAKES AND SINKING AIR OVER EASTERN LAKE MICHIGAN. THIS SMOKE  
WILL BE ADVECTED BACK TOWARD OUR SHORELINE BY EAST AND  
NORTHEAST WINDS. MODELS DEPICT THIS ADDITIONAL SMOKE FINALLY  
MIXING OUT FRIDAY AFTERNOON. AN AIR QUALITY ADVISORY WILL REMAIN  
IN EFFECT ALONG THE LAKE MICHIGAN SHORELINE UNTIL NOON FRIDAY  
AS A RESULT.  
 
OTHERWISE, HIGH CLOUDS WILL GENERALLY INCREASE OVERNIGHT AS A WEAK  
500MB WAVE APPROACHES FROM NEBRASKA AND IOWA. SHOWER ACTIVITY IS  
ANTICIPATED TO MOVE TOWARD SOUTHWEST AND CENTRAL WISCONSIN DURING  
THE MORNING HOURS ON FRIDAY BUT LARGELY FIZZLE OUT AS THE HIGH  
PRESSURE REMAINS IN PLACE AND KEEPS DRY AIR NEAR THE SURFACE.  
SCATTERED SPRINKLES/LIGHT RAIN MAY OCCUR OVER CENTRAL WI, BUT MOST  
OF THIS ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO BE VIRGA. SMALL WIGGLES IN THE 500MB  
FLOW ALOFT WILL THEN CONTINUE THROUGH THE DAY, CAUSING NEBULOUS  
AREAS OF LIFT/SHOWER ACTIVITY INTO FRIDAY NIGHT, BUT AGAIN, DRY LOW  
LEVELS WILL INHIBIT MUCH OF THIS FROM REACHING THE GROUND.  
 
CLOUDS CONTINUE SATURDAY, WITH A MORE AMPLIFIED SHORTWAVE EXPECTED  
TO MOVE THROUGH DURING THE AFTERNOON. 12Z NAM SOUNDINGS DEPICT A BIT  
OF CAPE BEING REALIZED AND 12Z GFS SOUNDINGS SHOW A BIT MORE  
SATURATION CLOSE TO THE SURFACE, SO THIS AFTERNOON ROUND ON SATURDAY  
MAY OVERCOME THE DRY LOW LEVELS AND PROVIDE LIGHT, SCATTERED  
RAIN INTO THE EARLY EVENING.  
 
HIGHS WILL BE IN THE MID TO UPPER 70S INLAND FRIDAY, WITH  
COOLER TEMPERATURES BY THE LAKE, OWING TO EAST-NORTHEAST WIND  
CONTINUING OFF OF THE WATERS, WITH SIMILAR HIGHS ON SATURDAY  
 
CMILLER  
 

 
   
LONG TERM
 
 
ISSUED 227 PM CDT THU JUN 5 2025  
 
SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY:  
 
THE SHORTWAVE THAT WILL MOVE THROUGH ON SATURDAY IS EXPECTED TO  
CAUSE WEAK SURFACE CYCLOGENESIS OVER LOWER MICHIGAN AND LAKE  
HURON THROUGH SUNDAY. ON ITS HEELS, A COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO  
PASS OVER SOUTHERN WISCONSIN DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS ON  
SUNDAY BRINGING GOOD CHANCES FOR RAIN (60 TO 80% POPS). THE  
TIMING OF THIS FRONT IS A BIT EARLY, WITH MODELS DEPICTING IT  
CROSSING THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY IN THE LATE MORNING. AS A  
RESULT, SUFFICIENT VALUES OF SBCAPE FOR STRONGER STORMS (>500  
J/KG) DO NOT BUILD AHEAD OF THE FRONT AND INSTEAD WE'LL LIKELY  
SEE NOTHING MORE THAN SOME SCATTERED RUMBLES OF THUNDER ALONG  
THE FRONT DURING THE AFTERNOON. THIS COLD FRONT SHOULD THEN  
CLEAR THE AREA EAST BY THE LATE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING. IT  
SHOULD BE NOTED THAT THE TIMING OF THE FRONTAL PASSAGE HAS  
VARIED FROM RUN TO RUN LENDING A BIT OF UNCERTAINTY. A SLOWER  
FRONTAL PASSAGE WOULD SUPPORT MORE CAPE IN THE AFTERNOON, AND  
THUS, STRONGER STORMS. TRENDS WILL BE MONITORED HEADING INTO  
SUNDAY.  
 
THERE WILL BE A BRIEF LULL SUNDAY NIGHT, BEFORE AN UPPER TROUGH GETS  
KICKED OUT OF CANADA AND INTO THE UPPER GREAT LAKES BY THE  
AFFORMENTIONED SURFACE CYCLOGENESIS THAT WILL OCCUR OVER MICHIGAN.  
AS A RESULT, CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND A FEW RUMBLES OF THUNDER (30 TO  
60%) WILL THEN MOVE THROUGH THE AREA ON MONDAY, WITH THUNDER MORE  
LIKELY DURING THE AFTERNOON. ONE LAST GASP OF SCATTERED LIGHT RAIN  
MAY OCCUR TUESDAY AS A WEAK TROUGH MOVES THROUGH BEFORE HIGH  
PRESSURE RETURNS BY MID NEXT WEEK.  
 
OVERALL, TEMPERATURES WILL STAY WITHIN A FEW DEGREES OF NORMAL  
THROUGH THE WEEKEND GIVEN THE CLOUD COVER, RAIN, AND EAST WINDS  
OFF OF THE LAKE. TEMPERATURES SHOULD BEGIN TO REBOUND BY THE  
MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK AS RIDGING BUILDS OVER THE PLAINS.  
 
CMILLER  
 

 
   
AVIATION
 
 
ISSUED 930 PM CDT THU JUN 5 2025  
 
VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE TAF PERIOD AS SMOKE  
IS NO LONGER CAUSING IMPACTS TO VISIBILITIES IN ANY MANNER.  
LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS TONIGHT WITH LIGHT NORTHEAST TO  
EASTERLY WINDS TOMORROW DURING THE DAY BUT QUIET CONDITIONS  
OVERALL. NO TAF CONCERNS ARE EXPECTED.  
 
KUROSKI  
 

 
   
MARINE
 
 
ISSUED 227 PM CDT THU JUN 5 2025  
 
HIGH PRESSURE WILL LINGER OVER THE UPPER GREAT LAKES THROUGH  
SATURDAY, CAUSING PERSISTENT LIGHT NORTH TO NORTHEASTERLY WINDS.  
 
WINDS WILL COME AROUND TO SOUTHEASTERLY ON SUNDAY AHEAD OF A COLD  
FRONT, WITH MODERATE SOUTHWEST WINDS EXPECTED BY MONDAY. SHOWERS  
AND STORMS MAY OCCUR ALONG THE FRONT ON SUNDAY.  
 
CMILLER  
 

 
   
MKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
 
 
WI...NONE.  
LM...NONE.  

 
 

 
 
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