235
FXUS63 KMKX 011112
AFDMKX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MILWAUKEE/SULLIVAN WI
612 AM CDT THU OCT 1 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- MODERATE TO HEAVY RAIN WILL CONTINUE OVER SOUTHERN WISCONSIN
THROUGH THE MORNING. ON AVERAGE, 1 TO 2 INCHES OF RAIN IS
EXPECTED BY THE END OF TODAY, WITH THE HEAVIEST TOTALS IN A
BAND FROM LONE ROCK TO PORT WASHINGTON. LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS
MAY OCCUR. URBAN AND SMALL STREAM FLOODING AND ISOLATED FLASH
FLOODING WILL BE POSSIBLE WHERE LOCALLY HIGHER RAIN AMOUNTS
OCCUR. OTHERWISE, RISES IN RIVERS AND LOW LYING AREAS ARE
EXPECTED.
UPDATE
ISSUED 548 AM CDT THU OCT 1 2026
A BAND OF MODERATE TO HEAVY RAIN HAS SET UP FROM ROUGHLY LONE
ROCK TO PORT WASHINGTON AND POINTS NORTH. THIS RAIN HAS BEEN
SPURRED ON BY WARM ADVECTION AND FRONTOGENESIS AT THE 850MB
LEVEL, WITH PWATS OF 1.8 TO 1.9 INCHES RIDING THE LEADING EDGE
OF THE 850 MB LIFTING MECHANISMS. THIS RAIN IS EXPECTED TO
CONTINUE OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS, BEFORE RATES TAPER OFF DURING
THE LATE MORNING. LIGHT, SHOWERY RAIN IS THEN EXPECTED TO
CONTINUE DURING THE AFTERNOON BEFORE RAIN PUSHES EAST BY THIS
EVENING AND WE BEGIN TO DRY OUT.
OVERALL 1 TO 2 INCHES OF RAIN IS EXPECTED BY THE END OF TODAY
WITHIN THE BAND MENTIONED ABOVE, WITH ISOLATED, LOCALLY HIGHER
TOTALS POSSIBLE.
CMILLER
SHORT TERM
ISSUED 1057 PM CDT WED SEP 30 2026
TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT:
THE FORECAST FOR WIDESPREAD MDT TO HEAVY RAINFALL REMAINS ON
TRACK FOR LATE TNT-THU AM. A WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE OVER CENTRAL
KS WILL TRACK TO ERN IA BY 12Z THU, WHILE A SHORTWAVE TROUGH
OVER NE INTO NW IA APPROACHES SRN WI DURING THIS TIME. THE NOSE
OF A SWLY LOW LEVEL JET OF 40-45 KT WILL SET UP OVER FAR SRN WI.
DEEP, SLOPING FRONTOGENESIS WILL DEVELOP ACROSS THE REGION AS
THE LOW AND AFOREMENTIONED FEATURES SHIFT ACROSS SRN WI INTO
LOWER MI ON THU. THE STRONG LIFT WILL OCCUR WITHIN A SATURATED
TROPOSPHERE AND PWATS AROUND 2 INCHES. THUS HIGH PRECIPITATION
EFFICIENCY IS EXPECTED. THE MEAN FLOW WILL BE FAIRLY FAST, BUT
SEVERAL HOURS OF MDT TO HEAVY RAIN WILL STILL OCCUR FOR MOST
LOCATIONS. RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 1.5-2.25 INCHES ARE FORECAST WITH
LOCALLY MORE. URBAN AND SMALL STREAM FLOODING AND ISOLATED FLASH
FLOODING WILL BE POSSIBLE WHERE THOSE LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS
OCCUR. THERE IS SOME CONFIDENCE BASED ON CAMS THAT A BAND OF
THE HEAVIEST RAIN WILL STRETCH FROM FAR SW WI INTO THE MADISON
AREA. RAINFALL AMOUNTS TOWARD CENTRAL WI WILL BE MUCH LESS. THE
WIDESPREAD RAIN WILL CONTINUE OVER SE WI FOR THE AFTERNOON
FOLLOWED BY COOLING AND DRYING FROM THE NORTH AFTERWARD. SKIES
WILL GRADUALLY CLEAR THU NT ON NLY WINDS AND COLD AND DRY AIR
ADVECTION. TEMPS WILL REMAIN IN THE 60S TNT AND TOMORROW THEN
FALL INTO THE MIDDLE 40S TO LOWER 50S BY SUNRISE FRIDAY.
GEHRING
LONG TERM
ISSUED 1057 PM CDT WED SEP 30 2026
FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY:
THE MODELS HAVE FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT FOR THE OVERALL PATTERN
THIS WEEKEND INTO NEXT WEEK. NLY WINDS AND WEAKENING COLD
ADVECTION WILL PREVAIL ON FRI FOLLOWED BY HIGH PRESSURE AROUND
1027 MB FOR FRI NT. AFTER A RELATIVELY COOL DAY IN THE LOWER
60S, LOW TEMPS WILL FALL INTO THE MIDDLE 30S TO LOWER 40S INLAND
FROM THE LAKE. PATCHY FROST WILL BE POSSIBLE AROUND SUNRISE SAT
NORTH OF MADISON.
A WEST TO NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT WILL PREVAIL FOR THE WEEKEND
INTO THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. A SHORTWAVE TROUGH AND SFC LOW
WILL TRACK ACROSS THE CANADIAN BORDER OVER THE GREAT PLAINS ON
SAT, WITH THE LOW TO DEEPEN AND TRACK INTO CENTRAL ONTARIO FOR
SAT NT. SLY WINDS AND WARM ADVECTION WILL RETURN TO SRN WI
FOLLOWED BY A DRY COLD FRONT SUN AM. HIGH TEMPS WILL WARM
THROUGH THE 60S FOR THE WEEKEND.
A SURFACE RIDGE WILL PASS ON MON FOLLOWED BY ANOTHER LOW ACROSS
CENTRAL CANADA BRINGING SLY WINDS TO SRN WI ON TUE. RELATIVELY
COOL TEMPS ON MON WILL WARM A BIT FOR TUE, FOLLOWED BY ANOTHER
COLD FRONT AND UPPER TROUGH PASSAGE ON WED. THERE IS UNCERTAINTY
ON WHETHER THIS FRONT WILL BE A DRY PASSAGE, BUT THE FORECAST IS
DRY AT THIS TIME.
GEHRING
AVIATION
ISSUED 600 AM CDT THU OCT 1 2026
A HODGE PODGE OF FLIGHT CATEGORIES EXIST OVER SOUTHERN WI THIS
MORNING. THIS MIXTURE OF CATEGORIES SHOULD CONTINUE THROUGH MUCH
OF THE MORNING AS BREAKS IN THE RAIN MIX WITH POCKETS OF STEADY
RAIN. THIS AFTERNOON CEILINGS SHOULD STEADILY RISE, WITH
WIDESPREAD VFR TAKING OVER BY THE EVENING. DESPITE RECENT RAINS,
ELEVATED WINDS LINGERING HIGH CLOUDS OVERNIGHT SHOULD KEEP FOG
AT BAY.
LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS WILL COME AROUND TO NORTHERLY TO
NORTHWESTERLY THIS AFTERNOON. NORTHWESTERLY WINDS CONTINUE
TONIGHT WITH BREEZES TO 15 KNOTS.
CMILLER
MARINE
ISSUED 1057 PM CDT WED SEP 30 2026
MODEST SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL CONTINUE TONIGHT THEN SHIFT WESTERLY
AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT BY THE MIDDLE OF THURSDAY. EXPECT WINDS TO
THEN SHIFT NORTHWEST WITH THE FRONTAL PASSAGE THURSDAY AFTERNOON.
MODEST TO BREEZY NORTHERLY WINDS ARE THEN FORECAST THURSDAY NIGHT
AND FRIDAY. STRONG HIGH PRESSURE AROUND 30.4 INCHES WILL THEN OVERSPREAD
THE GREAT LAKES FRIDAY NIGHT. THIS SHOULD BRING LIGHTER WINDS TO
THE LAKE FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY.
A FAST-MOVING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM AROUND 29.8 INCHES SHOULD MOVE
ACROSS OR NORTH OF LAKE SUPERIOR SATURDAY NIGHT, WITH HIGH
PRESSURE AROUND 30.4 INCHES MOVING SOUTHEAST INTO THE REGION BY
EARLY NEXT WEEK. SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST WINDS SATURDAY NIGHT SHOULD
VEER NORTHWEST TO NORTH SUNDAY INTO MONDAY ACROSS LAKE MICHIGAN.
GEHRING
MKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
WI...NONE.
LM...NONE.
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