460  
FXUS63 KMKX 232040  
AFDMKX  
 
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION  
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MILWAUKEE/SULLIVAN WI  
340 PM CDT WED SEP 23 2020  
   
SHORT TERM
 
 
(ISSUED 340 PM CDT WED SEP 23 2020)  
 
TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT:  
 
HIGH CLOUDS WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA TONIGHT, BEFORE LOWER  
CLOUDS START TO MOVE INTO THE AREA LATER TONIGHT. MILD LOWS IN  
THE MIDDLE 50S ARE EXPECTED TONIGHT, WITH LIGHT WINDS.  
 
THE WEAKENING SURFACE LOW WILL DISSIPATE AS IT MOVES EAST TOWARD  
THE REGION THURSDAY, WITH A 500 MB SHORTWAVE TROUGH SLIDING  
SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE AREA THURSDAY INTO THURSDAY EVENING. THERE  
IS MODEST AMOUNTS OF MOISTURE IN THE AIR COLUMN PER FORECAST  
SOUNDINGS. THE BEST UPWARD VERTICAL MOTION SHOULD BE NORTH OF THE  
AREA, CLOSER TO THE SURFACE BOUNDARY THERE.  
 
KEPT CHANCE POPS FOR SHOWERS GOING, MAINLY LATER THURSDAY MORNING  
INTO THE EARLY EVENING. NORTHERN AREAS HAVE THE BEST SHOT AT  
SEEING THE SHOWERS. KEPT SMALL CHANCES FOR THUNDER GOING, AS  
SOUNDINGS KEEP SOME TALL SKINNY MEAN LAYER CAPE ABOVE THE CAP.  
 
CLOUDS MAY LIMIT HIGHS A BIT, BUT SHOULD STILL MAKE THE MIDDLE 70S  
IN MOST AREAS. QUIET WEATHER RETURNS FOR THE REST OF THURSDAY  
NIGHT, WITH DECREASING CLOUDS.  
 
WOOD  
 

 
   
LONG TERM
 
 
(ISSUED 340 PM CDT WED SEP 23 2020)  
 
FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY:  
 
WARM AIR ADVECTION ON INCREASING SOUTH WINDS WILL BRING ANOTHER  
WARM DAY TO THE AREA FRIDAY, WITH HIGHS REACHING AROUND 80. IT MAY  
GET A BIT WARMER WITH A FAIR AMOUNT OF SUNSHINE.  
 
THE WARM TEMPERATURES SHOULD LINGER INTO SATURDAY, AHEAD OF THE  
STRONG COLD FRONT. KEPT CHANCES FOR SHOWERS GOING MAINLY SATURDAY  
AFTERNOON AND EVENING, UNTIL THE MAIN COLD FRONT PUSHES SOUTHEAST  
THROUGH THE AREA SATURDAY NIGHT. AGAIN, THE BEST UPWARD VERTICAL  
MOTION AND MOISTURE MAY BE NORTH OF THE AREA, SO SOME UNCERTAINTY  
WITH RAIN CHANCES DURING THIS PERIOD.  
 
ENSEMBLES CONTINUE TO SUPPORT A BIG PATTERN SHIFT SUNDAY INTO NEXT  
WEEK. A LARGE 500 MB TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO DIG AND AMPLIFY OVER  
THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES INTO NORTHEAST CANADA DURING THIS PERIOD,  
WITH SEVERAL VORTICITY MAXIMA ROTATING THROUGH THE REGION. THIS  
WILL BRING MUCH COOLER TEMPERATURES INTO THE REGION, WITH  
ENSEMBLES SHOWING SMALL SPREAD IN TEMPERATURE RANGES. THIS  
INDICATES FAIRLY HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THE BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES  
OCCURRING, ESPECIALLY SUNDAY NIGHT INTO THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.  
SHOWER CHANCES WILL OCCUR AT TIMES WITHIN THIS LONGWAVE TROUGH  
PATTERN.  
 
WOOD  
 

 
   
AVIATION
 
 
(ISSUED 340 PM CDT WED SEP 23 2020)  
 
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED INTO THURSDAY ACROSS THE AREA. LIGHT  
SOUTHWEST WINDS ARE EXPECTED INTO EARLY THIS EVENING, WITH THE  
SOUTHEAST LAKE BREEZE REMAINING EAST OF THE TERMINALS NEAR LAKE  
MICHIGAN. SOME HIGH CLOUDS WILL PASS THROUGH THE AREA AS WELL INTO  
TONIGHT. LIGHT WINDS ARE EXPECTED TONIGHT INTO EARLY THURSDAY,  
WITH SOME GROUND FOG POSSIBLE IN LOW LYING AREAS.  
 
SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST WINDS ARE EXPECTED THURSDAY, WITH SOME GUSTS  
TO 18 KNOTS IN THE AFTERNOON. CLOUDS ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE  
INTO THURSDAY, WITH SOME SHOWERS POSSIBLE THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND  
NIGHT. A FEW THUNDERSTORMS MAY OCCUR AS WELL.  
 
WOOD  
 

 
   
MARINE
 
 
(ISSUED 340 PM CDT WED SEP 23 2020)  
 
THE FOG IS DISSIPATING OVER THE FAR NORTHERN PORTIONS OF LAKE  
MICHIGAN. MORE FOG IS POSSIBLE OVERNIGHT INTO THURSDAY MORNING IN  
NORTHERN PARTS OF THE LAKE. NOT SURE IF THIS WILL BE DENSE OR  
NOW, BUT IT WILL BEAR WATCHING.  
 
OTHERWISE, SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST WINDS ARE EXPECTED INTO THURSDAY.  
WINDS WILL INCREASE ON THURSDAY, WITH GUSTS TO 20 KNOTS OR SO.  
SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST WINDS INCREASE MORE FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY, WITH  
BUILDING WAVES. A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY MAY BE NEEDED DURING THIS  
PERIOD, MAINLY NORTH OF NORTH POINT LIGHTHOUSE WHERE THE HIGHEST  
WAVES ARE FORECAST.  
 
GUSTY WEST WINDS ARE THEN FORECAST BEHIND A STRONG COLD FRONT FOR  
SUNDAY INTO THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. MAY SEE SOME GALES AT TIMES  
OVER THE LAKE MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY NIGHT.  
 
WOOD  
 

 
   
MKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
 
 
WI...NONE.  
LM...NONE.  

 
 

 
 
VISIT US AT WEATHER.GOV/MILWAUKEE  
 
FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK, TWITTER, AND YOUTUBE AT:  
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSMILWAUKEE  
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSMILWAUKEE  
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSMILWAUKEE  
 
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.

The Nexlab WI Page Main Text Page