726
FXUS63 KMKX 112230 AAA
AFDMKX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MILWAUKEE/SULLIVAN WI
530 PM CDT THU JUN 11 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- SEVERE RISK IS DECREASING AND REMAINS CONFINED TO COUNTIES
ADJACENT TO THE WISCONSIN ILLINOIS STATE LINE.
- FLASH FLOODING OF URBAN AND SLOW DRAINAGE AREAS IS EXPECTED
WITH THUNDERSTORMS. A FLASH FLOOD WATCH IS IN EFFECT THROUGH
THIS EVENING.
UPDATE
ISSUED 530 PM CDT THU JUN 11 2026
THE INSTABILITY SURGE TO THE NORTH HAS NOT MANIFESTED ITSELF AND
THE ATMOSPHERE HAS SHOWN ITS CARDS. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
WILL CONTINUE TO EXPAND INTO THE AREA OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS
AND EXIT FROM WEST TO EAST, ENDING IN (ROUGHLY) THE 8 PM HOUR.
LOW LEVEL SHEAR IS ENOUGH TO REMAIN ON GUARD WITH CONVECTION
ENTERING FROM ILLINOIS. TO THIS POINT, WE HAVE BEEN SUFFICIENTLY
CAPPED WITH FEW GUSTS REPORTED (AT BEST 20MPH). WILL NEED TO
KEEP AN EYE ON THE POTENTIAL FOR A FEW WET MICROBURSTS WITH THE
STRENGTHENING ACTIVITY ALONG THE STRAIGHT LINE. AS A RESULT
CANNOT COMPLETELY RULE OUT A FEW SEVERE STORMS. THE TORNADO RISK
CONTINUES TO DECREASE WITH TIME GIVEN THE SURFACE BASED
INSTABILITY REMAINS SHUNTED TO OUR SOUTH. WILL MAINTAIN THE
WATCH GIVEN ONGOING ACTIVITY AND TRIM AS ACTIVITY EXITS.
VERY MOIST AIRMASS WITH LARGE WARM CLOUD DEPTHS AND HIGH
PRECIPITABLE WATER HAVE RESULTED IN HEAVY RAINFALL AS WELL, WITH
RATES EXCEEDING 1-2 INCHES IN THE HEAVIER DOWNPOURS. THE FLASH
FLOOD RISK IN URBAN AND SLOW DRAINAGE AREAS WILL PERSIST UNTIL
THIS ACTIVITY EXITS TO THE EAST.
GAGAN
SHORT TERM
ISSUED 151 PM CDT THU JUN 11 2026
TONIGHT AND FRIDAY:
A VERY CHALLENGING FORECAST FOR THE REST OF TODAY. THE MESOSCALE
IS INTERESTING, BUT QUITE MESSY FOR A NUMBER OF FACTORS.
THE FIRST CHALLENGE IS THE LINGERING EFFECTS OF THE
SHOWERS/STORMS THAT MOVED THROUGH THE AREA THIS MORNING. THIS
HAS OVERTURNED OUR AIRMASS A BIT AND CURRENTLY LOW LEVEL LAPSE
RATES AND INSTABILITY ARE SUFFERING. THAT SAID, WE DO HAVE A
SOLID MID LEVEL WAVE BECOMING NEGATIVELY TILTED AND A SURFACE
LOW MOVING NORTHEAST INTO THE AREA. THIS IS MORE SPRING LIKE
FORCING, WHICH CAN LEAD TO RAPID LOW LEVEL AIRMASS AND
INSTABILITY RECOVERY.
GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO SUGGEST THAT AIRMASS RECOVERY WILL AT
LEAST GIVE IT A TRY AS FORCING MOVES TO THE NORTHEAST. WITH
CONSIDERABLE LOW LEVEL SHEAR IN PLACE (VERY LARGE EFFECTIVE LOW
LEVEL HELICITY) IT WOULD NOT TAKE MUCH STORM ORGANIZATION TO
POSE A DAMAGING WIND AND TORNADO RISK.
AT THE MOMENT WE ARE TARGETING COUNTIES ADJACENT TO THE WI/IL
STATE LINE FOR THE BEST TORNADO POTENTIAL IF LOW LEVEL RECOVERY
OCCURS AND INSTABILITY RESPONDS. TO THE NORTH OF THIS AREA, ANY
SUPERCELLULAR STRUCTURES WILL POSE A HAIL AND DAMAGING WIND
RISK.
FINALLY, THE AIRMASS REMAINS VERY MOIST AND ANY STORM WILL BE
CAPABLE OF HEAVY RAINFALL WITH RATES BETWEEN 1-2 INCHES PER
HOURS. THE GOOD NEWS IS THAT THIS NEXT ROUND OF RAIN/STORMS
SHOULD BE PROGRESSIVE, BUT URBAN AND SLOW DRAINAGE AREAS WILL BE
AT RISK FOR FLASH FLOODING DUE TO EXCESSIVE RATES.
QUIET WEATHER IS EXPECTED FRIDAY AS WEAK HIGH PRESSURE MOVES
ACROSS THE MIDWEST. MAINLY CLEAR SKIES AND HIGHS NEAR 80 ARE
EXPECTED.
GAGAN
LONG TERM
ISSUED 151 PM CDT THU JUN 11 2026
FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY:
OUR NEXT COLD FRONT AND CHANCE FOR SHOWERS/STORMS ARRIVES DURING
THE SATURDAY AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING HOURS. THE BEST UPPER
SUPPORT AND FORCING HAS BEEN LOCATED TO OUR SOUTHWEST WITH THE
PAST SEVERAL RUNS OF MODELS. THAT SAID, THERE SHOULD BE ENOUGH
LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE WITH MODEST MUCAPE PROFILES AND INCREASING
SHEAR TO SUPPORT SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS MOVING NORTHWEST TO
SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE AREA DURING THE MID AFTERNOON HOURS INTO
THE EVENING. SPC HAS THE REGION IN A MARGINAL RISK FOR A FEW
STORMS THAT COULD PRODUCE MARGINALLY SEVERE HAIL AND LOCALIZED
GUSTY WINDS.
A DIGGING TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN CONUS WILL RESULT IN QUIETER
WEATHER, WITH A SIZABLE DROP IN DEWPOINTS AND A COOLER AIRMASS
MOVING INTO THE REGION. NORTHWEST FLOW WILL SEND A FEW
SHORTWAVES THROUGH THE REGION WITH SOME MODEL AGREEMENT TOWARD A
MORE ORGANIZED WAVE MOVING THROUGH THE REGION IN THE LATE
TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY TIME FRAME.
GAGAN
AVIATION
ISSUED 151 PM CDT THU JUN 11 2026
PRIMARY CONCERN FOR THE THIS AFTERNOON INTO THIS EVENING IS THE
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL. STORMS WILL DEVELOP TO OUR WEST
AFTER 18Z AND MOVE TO THE EAST THROUGH SOUTHERN WI DURING THE
MID TO LATE AFTERNOON HOURS, EXITING TO THE EAST AFTER 02Z. VERY
HEAVY RAINFALL AND WIND GUSTS WILL ACCOMPANY THESE STORMS,
LOWERING VISIBILITY AND CEILINGS TO IFR. WINDS WILL SHIFT TO THE
WEST AFTER STORMS EXIT AND SKIES ARE EXPECTED TO CLEAR.
GAGAN
MARINE
ISSUED 151 PM CDT THU JUN 11 2026
SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL BECOME BREEZY SOUTH TO SOUTHEASTERLY THIS
AFTERNOON AS LOW PRESSURE AROUND 29.5 INCHES MOVES FROM EASTERN
IOWA TO CENTRAL LAKE MICHIGAN BY EARLY EVENING. BY FRIDAY MORNING
THE LOW WILL CONTINUE TO ACCELERATE NORTHEASTWARD INTO ONTARIO.
WINDS WILL BECOME WESTERLY AND BREEZY BEHIND THE LOW PRESSURE AREA
THIS EVENING THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT. NUMEROUS THUNDERSTORMS ARE
EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING AND MAY BECOME SEVERE.
A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT FROM THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH
TONIGHT FOR WIND GUSTS AND ELEVATED WAVES. HIGHEST WAVES TOWARD
SHEBOYGAN.
GAGAN
MKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
WI...FLOOD WATCH...WIZ046-WIZ047-WIZ051-WIZ052-WIZ056-WIZ057-WIZ058-
WIZ059-WIZ060-WIZ062-WIZ063-WIZ064-WIZ065-WIZ066-WIZ067-
WIZ068-WIZ069-WIZ070-WIZ071-WIZ072 UNTIL 11 PM THURSDAY.
LM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY...LMZ643 UNTIL 4 AM FRIDAY.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY...LMZ644-LMZ645-LMZ646 UNTIL 11 PM
THURSDAY.
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