935
FXUS63 KMKX 280437
AFDMKX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MILWAUKEE/SULLIVAN WI
1137 PM CDT THU AUG 27 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- AREAS OF FOG IN THE WI RIVER VALLEY AND OTHER LOW LYING AREAS
OF SOUTH CENTRAL WI LATE TONIGHT INTO EARLY FRI AM.
- MULTIPLE PERIODS OF SHOWERS AND STORMS FORECAST FROM THIS
WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK, WITH A SHARP TRANSITION TO
WARMER AND MORE HUMID CONDITIONS.
- SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY-CRITERIA CONDITIONS MAY RETURN TO THE
NEARSHORE WATERS ON SUNDAY, PARTICULARLY FOR ZONES NORTH OF
MILWAUKEE. A BEACH HAZARD STATEMENT MAY ALSO BE NEEDED ON
SUNDAY.
SHORT TERM
ISSUED 1136 PM CDT THU AUG 27 2026
TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT:
HIGH PRESSURE OVER WRN ONTARIO WILL MOVE INTO THE NRN GREAT
LAKES LATE TNT THEN SHIFT TO THE LOWER GREAT LAKES ON FRI. GOOD
RADIATIONAL COOLING CONDITIONS WILL LEAD TO AREAS OF FOG OVER
LOW LYING AREAS OF SOUTH CENTRAL WI LATE TNT. PARTLY CLOUDY
SKIES AND ANOTHER LAKE BREEZE IS THEN EXPECTED ON FRI WITH HIGHS
IN THE LOWER 80S AWAY FROM THE LAKE. LGT SLY WINDS AND THE ONSET
OF WARM ADVECTION IS EXPECTED FRI NT BUT ANY PRECIPITATION
SHOULD HOLD OFF UNTIL SAT.
GEHRING
LONG TERM
ISSUED 1136 PM CDT THU AUG 27 2026
SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY:
A BROAD, BUT LOW AMPLITUDE UPPER RIDGE, WILL MOVE INTO THE
CENTRAL AND SRN USA THIS WEEKEND AND CONTINUE INTO NEXT WEEK.
WELL ORGANIZED LOW TO MID LEVEL WARM, MOIST ADVECTION THAT WILL
BRING THE RIDGE INTO THE CENTRAL USA, WILL AFFECT SRN WI SAT
AFTERNOON AND NIGHT. PWATS WILL RISE ABOVE 1.5 INCHES BUT MID
LEVEL LAPSE RATES WILL REMAIN POOR THROUGH SAT NT WITH ONLY VERY
LIMITED CAPE DEVELOPING. SHOWERS ARE STILL LIKELY WITH SOME
STORMS SAT AFTERNOON AND NIGHT WHEN THE MAIN TROPOSPHERIC
BAROCLINIC ZONE MOVES ACROSS THE REGION. THE MID LEVEL LAPSE
RATES WILL STEEPEN ON SUNDAY AS THE ELEVATED MIXED LAYER ARRIVES
BUT THE WARMING TEMPS ALOFT WILL ALSO CONTRIBUTE TO CAPPING.
MUCAPE SHOULD RISE ABOVE 1000 J/KG FOR SUN-MON AND SOME WARM,
MOIST ADVECTION WILL CONTINUE ON A SWLY LOW LEVEL JET INTO MON.
RAIN CHANCES OF 20-50 PERCENT ARE FORECAST.
A SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL THEN PASS TO THE NORTH TUE NT BUT DRAG A
WEAK COLD FRONT THROUGH SRN WI. 40 PERCENT CHANCES FOR SHOWERS
AND STORMS ARE FORECAST. AFTERWARD AN UPPER RIDGE WILL EITHER
BUILD THROUGH THE GREAT PLAINS OR BACK NWD INTO THE CENTRAL USA
AND UPPER MS RIVER VALLEY. OVERALL A VERY WARM AND HUMID WEEK
IS EXPECTED BEGINNING ON SUNDAY.
GEHRING
AVIATION
ISSUED 1136 PM CDT THU AUG 27 2026
AREAS OF BR AND FG ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP OVER SOUTH CENTRAL WI
AFTER 08Z FRI. 1/4-1/2SM FG IS FORECAST IN THE WI RIVER VALLEY,
WHILE AREAS OF VSBYS FROM 1-3SM ARE ANTICIPATED OVER THE
REMAINDER OF SOUTH CENTRAL WI. MUCH OF THE BR AND FG WILL BE
OVER BY 13-14Z FRI. SCT050 FAIR WX CUMULUS WILL THEN DEVELOP
FOR THE AFTERNOON.
GEHRING
MARINE
ISSUED 1136 PM CDT THU AUG 27 2026
HIGH PRESSURE OF 30.1 INCHES WILL MOVE FROM ONTARIO INTO THE
NORTHERN GREAT LAKES BY FRIDAY MORNING THEN SHIFT INTO THE LOWER
GREAT LAKES BY FRIDAY EVENING. LIGHT NORTHEAST TO EASTERLY FLOW IS
EXPECTED TONIGHT BECOMING LIGHT TO MODEST SOUTHERLY FLOW FOR
FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND NIGHT. MODEST TO BREEZY SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL
THEN PREVAIL THIS WEEKEND AND ON MONDAY AS A TROUGH OF LOW
PRESSURE SLOWLY MOVES FROM THE GREAT PLAINS TO THE UPPER
MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY. ROUNDS OF THUNDERSTORMS CAN BE EXPECTED
OVER LAKE MICHIGAN FROM SATURDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.
A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY MAY BE NEEDED ON SUNDAY FOR PERSISTENT
SOUTH WINDS AND BUILDING WAVES.
GEHRING
MKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
WI...NONE.
LM...NONE.
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