387
FXUS63 KMKX 130402
AFDMKX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MILWAUKEE/SULLIVAN WI
1002 PM CST MON JAN 12 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- MILD CONDITIONS CONTINUE THROUGH TUESDAY WITH HIGHS IN THE
LOW- MID 40S.
- SMALL CHANCES (~10-25%) FOR MAINLY LIGHT RAIN AND SPRINKLES
LATE TONIGHT & TUESDAY AFTERNOON.
- VERY LIGHT ROUND OF SNOW EXPECTED (~25-50% CHANCES) WEDNESDAY MORNING
IN EAST-CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST WISCONSIN.
- BRIEF WARM UP ON FRIDAY, WITH CONDITIONS TRENDING COLDER INTO
THE WEEKEND WITH ADDITIONAL CHANCES FOR LIGHT SNOW.
UPDATE
ISSUED 932 PM CST MON JAN 12 2026
NO MAJOR CHANGES TO THE FORECAST THIS EVENING. THE LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM IN MANITOBA THAT IS GOING TO TRACK EAST AND BRING PRECIP
TO WISCONSIN CONTINUES TO MOVE EASTWARD AND CLOUDS ARE BUILDING
IN FROM THE NORTHWEST TO THE SOUTHEAST. THE DIFFUSE FRONT
EXTENDING SOUTH FROM THE LOW IN MANITOBA IS ROUGHLY BETWEEN THE
DAKOTAS AND MINNESOTA EXTENDING SOUTH INTO IOWA AND NEBRASKA.
OVERCAST AND DRY CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT
HOURS AS THESE FEATURES CONTINUE EAST.
PATTERSON
SHORT TERM
ISSUED 225 PM CST MON JAN 12 2026
TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT:
SYNOPSIS/MESOANALYSIS: GOES WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS AN UPPER
DISTURBANCE OVER NORTHERN SASKATCHEWAN THIS AFTERNOON. AN OCCLUDED
AREA OF SURFACE LOW PRESSURE IS APPARENT OVER NORTH-CENTRAL
SASKATCHEWAN, WITH A DIFFUSE OCCLUDED/WARM FRONT EXTENDING TO ITS
SOUTH INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS. MOVING IN TANDEM WITH ITS
ACCOMPANYING UPPER DISTURBANCE, SAID LOW WILL MIGRATE INTO ONTARIO
TONIGHT, DRAGGING THE OCCLUDED/WARM FRONT INTO THE WESTERN GREAT
LAKES. INCREASING WARM ADVECTION AHEAD OF THE FRONT, IN ADDITION TO
INCREASING LIFT AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING UPPER DISTURBANCE, WILL
SUPPORT LIGHT RAIN AND SPRINKLE POTENTIAL OVER EAST-CENTRAL
WISCONSIN DURING THE PREDAWN AND EARLY MORNING HOURS TUESDAY. MILD
CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE INTO TUESDAY AS THE OCCLUDED/WARM FRONT
MOVES EAST OF THE REGION. A FEW LIGHT SPRINKLES ARE POSSIBLE
AREAWIDE TUESDAY AFTERNOON AS LOW PRESSURE SHIFTS INTO EASTERN
ONTARIO & DRAGS A WEAK WIND SHIFT/COLD FRONT ACROSS SOUTHERN
WISCONSIN. A MUCH STRONGER, ARCTIC COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH THE AREA
LATE TUESDAY NIGHT, BRINGING INCREASING CHANCES FOR LIGHT SNOW
SHOWERS BY EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING.
TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING: SLIGHT CHANCES (~10-25%) FOR LIGHT
RAIN AND SPRINKLES ENTER THE FORECAST AFTER PREDAWN. GREATEST PRECIP
POTENTIAL WILL FOCUS NEAR AN AREA OF 850-700 MB WARM ADVECTION,
WHICH CONTINUES TO TREND FURTHER NORTH IN MORNING & EARLY AFTERNOON
FORECAST GUIDANCE. THUS EXPECT THAT WIDESPREAD PRECIP WILL REMAIN
OVER NORTH-CENTRAL AND NORTHEAST WISCONSIN, THOUGH A FEW LIGHT RAIN
SHOWERS OR SPRINKLES ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE NORTH. NOT EXPECTING
APPRECIABLE ACCUMULATION IN ANY ACTIVITY.
TUESDAY NIGHT: LIGHT SNOW CHANCES WILL BEGIN TO TREND UP AFTER
MIDNIGHT AS A STRONGER ARCTIC FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE NORTH.
CURRENTLY EXPECT MOST LIGHT SNOW TO OCCUR AFTER DAYBREAK
WEDNESDAY/THE BEGINNING OF THE LONG TERM PERIOD, THOUGH START TIMES
COULD TREND EARLIER. WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR ARRIVAL TIME TRENDS IN
COMING FORECASTS.
QUIGLEY
LONG TERM
ISSUED 225 PM CST MON JAN 12 2026
WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY:
SYNOPSIS: AN ARCTIC COLD FRONT WILL EITHER BE APPROACHING OR
CROSSING SOUTHERN WISCONSIN BY SUNRISE WEDNESDAY, BRINGING MUCH
COLDER AIR TO THE REGION DURING THE WEDNESDAY-THURSDAY TIME FRAME.
FRONTOGENESIS AFFILIATED WITH THE BOUNDARY & LIFT AFFILIATED WITH AN
ACCOMPANYING UPPER SHORTWAVE WILL SUPPORT SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS
WEDNESDAY MORNING, WITH ACTIVITY POTENTIALLY LINGERING INTO THE
AFTERNOON HOURS IN EAST-CENTRAL AND SOUTHEASTERN WISCONSIN. WHILE
NOT EXPECTED TO BE SUBSTANTIAL, MINOR (~DUSTING) SNOW ACCUMULATION
IS POSSIBLE, PARTICULARLY IN EAST-CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST WISCONSIN.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE INTO THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY ON THURSDAY,
VACATING EAST INTO THE OHIO RIVER VALLEY INTO FRIDAY. SOUTHWESTERLY-
TRENDING WINDS WILL THUS SUPPORT MILDER HIGH TEMPERATURES ON FRIDAY.
MEAN UPPER TROUGHING WILL BUILD INTO THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES
THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH THE WEEKEND, WITH EMBEDDED SHORTWAVES
SUPPORTING ADDITIONAL PERIODS OF SNOW POTENTIAL, WITH ADDITIONAL
LIGHT ACCUMULATION POSSIBLE. THE ENCROACHING UPPER TROUGHING WILL BE
ACCOMPANIED BY A WEST-NORTHWEST WIND SHIFT AT THE SURFACE, RESULTING
IN ANOTHER STRETCH OF CHILLY DAYTIME HIGHS SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY.
WEDNESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON: AN ARCTIC COLD FRONT WILL EITHER
BE APPROACHING OR BE IN THE PROCESS OF MOVING THROUGH SOUTHERN
WISCONSIN BY DAYBREAK, BRINGING SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS. MOST
DETERMINISTIC GUIDANCE DEPICTS FRONTOGENESIS AFFILIATED WITH THE
ARCTIC FRONT SHIFTING SOUTH INTO ILLINOIS BY EARLY AFTERNOON,
IMPLYING THAT PEAK/MOST WIDESPREAD SNOW SHOWER POTENTIAL WILL BE
FROM DAYBREAK THROUGH LATE MORNING. COULD NEVERTHELESS SEE A FEW
LIGHTER FLURRIES/SNOW SHOWERS LINGER INTO THE AFTERNOON HOURS AMID
STRONG COLD ADVECTION IN THE 1000-700 MB LAYER. GIVEN THE FAST-
MOVING NATURE OF THE FRONT & ITS AFFILIATED DEEPER LIFT, EXPECT SNOW
ACCUMULATION TO BE MINOR. LATEST PROBABILISTIC GUIDANCE SHOWS
LOW TO MEDIUM POTENTIAL (~20-40%) OF A DUSTING, WITH VERY LOW
POTENTIAL (<10%) FOR TOTALS GREATER THAN 1.0". HIGHEST OF THESE
READINGS IS ACROSS EAST-CENTRAL AND SOUTHEASTERN WISCONSIN. WILL
CONTINUE TO MONITOR TRENDS IN THE COMING FORECASTS.
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT: WITH PERSISTENT
NORTHERLY FLOW IN PLACE ACROSS THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES, MODEL
GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO HINT AT POSSIBLE FORMATION OF A NORTH-SOUTH
LAKE EFFECT SNOW BAND ON LAKE MICHIGAN. LATEST SET OF FORECAST
SOLUTIONS HAS TRENDED THIS BAND TOWARD THE EASTERN SIDE OF THE LAKE,
WITH MOST CONSIDERABLE SNOW ACCUMULATIONS & IMPACTS TO THE SOUTHEAST
OF THE AREA. CURRENT CONCERN FOR LAKE EFFECT SNOW IMPACTS IN
SOUTHEAST WISCONSIN IS THUS LOW IN THIS FORECAST, THOUGH LATER
SHIFTS WILL CONTINUE TO WATCH FOR ANY WESTWARD SHIFTS IN THE LAKE
EFFECT BAND.
THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY: MEAN UPPER TROUGHING & EMBEDDED
SHORTWAVES WILL SUPPORT ADDITIONAL PERIODS OF LIGHT SNOW POTENTIAL,
THOUGH DETERMINISTIC FORECAST SOLUTIONS REMAIN IN DISAGREEMENT OVER
THE PRECISE EVOLUTION OF SAID EMBEDDED SHORTWAVES. LOOSE CONSENSUS
IS EVIDENT IN THE SUITE OF ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE, AND CURRENTLY POINTS
TOWARD FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT AS BEING MOST FAVORED FOR
PERIODS OF LIGHT SNOW. WILL CONTINUE TO REFINE PEAK TIMING AS THE
WEEK PROGRESSES. COULD SEE ADDITIONAL LIGHT ACCUMULATION IN THIS
SNOWFALL, WITH PROBABILISTIC GUIDANCE SHOWING MEDIUM/HIGH POTENTIAL
(~40-80%) OF AT LEAST AN INCH AND LOW/MEDIUM POTENTIAL (~20-40%) OF
AT LEAST TWO INCHES.
QUIGLEY
AVIATION
ISSUED 932 PM CST MON JAN 12 2026
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING THEN
CONDITIONS WILL DETERIORATE FROM NORTH TO SOUTH AS MVFR
CEILINGS AROUND 1.5 TO 3 KFT MOVE IN TUESDAY AFTERNOON. THESE
LOWER CEILINGS WILL BE ACCOMPANIED BY CHANCES FOR RAIN/DRIZZLE
TUESDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING THEN EVENTUALLY RAIN/SNOW MIX TUESDAY
NIGHT BECOMING ALL SNOW WEDNESDAY. NOT ANTICIPATING MUCH OF AN
IMPACT ON VISIBILITIES THROUGH LATE TUESDAY EVENING AS RAIN
CHANCES ARE LOW AROUND 10-20% AND ANY RAIN THAT DEVELOPS WILL BE
LIGHT. SNOW POTENTIAL BEYOND THAT TAF PERIOD HAS THE HIGHEST
CONFIDENCE ALONG LAKE MICHIGAN AND COULD POTENTIALLY BRING IN
SOME LOWER CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES HOW LOW WILL DEPEND ON
WHETHER LAKE EFFECT SNOW MOVES INLAND.
LIGHT SOUTHWEST TO WEST WINDS ARE EXPECTED INTO TUESDAY MORNING
BEFORE INCREASING AND BECOMING BREEZY WEST WINDS. GUSTS OF 20 TO
30 KTS WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS SOUTHERN WISCONSIN TUESDAY
AFTERNOON THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT. THERE WILL BE A LULL IN THE
GUSTS TUESDAY NIGHT WITH A WIND SHIFT. THE WEST WINDS WILL
BECOME NORTHWEST THEN NORTHERLY BY WEDNESDAY MORNING.
PATTERSON
MARINE
ISSUED 225 PM CST MON JAN 12 2026
996 MB LOW PRESSURE IS CENTERED OVER THE EASTERN HUDSON BAY THIS
AFTERNOON, RESULTING IN GENERALLY WEST-SOUTHWEST WINDS ACROSS THE
OPEN WATERS OF LAKE MICHIGAN. HIGH PRESSURE OF 1014 MB WILL CROSS
THE WATERS THIS EVENING, BRINGING A DECREASE IN WINDS THROUGH THE
FIRST HALF OF THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. LOW PRESSURE OF 992 MB WILL
DEVELOP NEAR THE ONTARIO-MANITOBA BORDER LATE TONIGHT, DEEPENING TO
NEAR 988 MB AS IT APPROACHES THE ONTARIO-QUEBEC BORDER TUESDAY
EVENING. DEVELOPMENT AND PROGRESSION OF THE LOW WILL RESULT IN
INCREASING WEST-SOUTHWEST WINDS ACROSS LAKE MICHIGAN EARLY TUESDAY
MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY AFTERNOON. GUSTS BETWEEN 25-30 KNOTS ARE
POSSIBLE, THOUGH GALES ARE NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.
AN ARCTIC COLD FRONT WILL QUICKLY MOVE SOUTH ACROSS LAKE MICHIGAN
LATE TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING, BRINGING A GUSTY
NORTH WIND SHIFT OVER THE WATERS. GALE FORCE GUSTS ARE ANTICIPATED
FROM THE LATE MORNING HOURS THROUGH EARLY EVENING, WITH HIGHEST
GUSTS OVER THE SOUTHERN TWO THIRDS OF THE OPEN WATERS. A GALE WATCH
HAS BEEN ISSUED BETWEEN 3 AM AND 9 PM CST WEDNESDAY OVER NORTHERN
LAKE MICHIGAN, AND BETWEEN 6 AM CST WEDNESDAY AND 12 AM CST
THURSDAY OVER SOUTHERN LAKE MICHIGAN. WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR
TRENDS & DETERMINE THE NEED FOR GALE WARNINGS OVER THE NEXT 12-24
HOURS. AREAS OF LIGHT TO MODERATE FREEZING SPRAY WILL ACCOMPANY
THE PASSING FRONT WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY EVENING.
WINDS AND WAVES REMAIN BELOW ADVISORY THRESHOLDS THIS AFTERNOON, AND
WILL CONTINUE TO REMAIN BELOW ADVISORY LEVELS THROUGH TONIGHT. WEST-
SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL INCREASE AHEAD OF DEVELOPING LOW PRESSURE IN
ONTARIO ON TUESDAY. GUSTS WILL LIKELY EXCEED SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
THRESHOLDS DURING THE MORNING AND AFTERNOON HOURS, WITH A SMALL
DECREASE ANTICIPATED DURING THE EVENING AND FIRST HALF OF THE
OVERNIGHT. A COLD FRONT WILL QUICKLY MOVE DOWN LAKE MICHIGAN LATE
TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING, BRINGING A GUSTY NORTHERLY
WIND SHIFT THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING. GALES ARE EXPECTED DURING THIS
TIME FRAME. TO ACCOUNT FOR THE GENERAL INCREASE FROM SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY TO LIKELY GALE CONDITIONS TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY, HAVE THUS
ISSUED A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY BETWEEN 6 AM TUESDAY AND 6 AM CST
WEDNESDAY, WITH A GALE WATCH GOING INTO EFFECT BETWEEN 6 AM CST
WEDNESDAY AND 12 AM CST THURSDAY. WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR TRENDS &
DETERMINE THE NEED FOR GALE WARNINGS OVER THE NEXT 12-24 HOURS.
AREAS OF LIGHT TO MODERATE FREEZING SPRAY ARE EXPECTED BEHIND THE
DEPARTING COLD FRONT WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH EARLY WEDNESDAY
EVENING.
QUIGLEY
MKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
WI...NONE.
LM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY...LMZ643-LMZ644-LMZ645-LMZ646...6 AM
TUESDAY TO 6 AM WEDNESDAY.
GALE WATCH...LMZ080-LMZ643-LMZ644-LMZ645-LMZ646-LMZ669-LMZ671-
LMZ673-LMZ675-LMZ777-LMZ779-LMZ870-LMZ872-LMZ874-LMZ876-
LMZ878...6 AM WEDNESDAY TO MIDNIGHT THURSDAY.
GALE WATCH...LMZ261-LMZ362-LMZ364-LMZ366-LMZ563-LMZ565-LMZ567-
LMZ868...3 AM WEDNESDAY TO 9 PM WEDNESDAY.
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