401
FXUS63 KMKX 011142 AAA
AFDMKX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MILWAUKEE/SULLIVAN WI
542 AM CST SUN MAR 1 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- AROUND 20 PERCENT CHANCES FOR LIGHT LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS
OR FLURRIES FOR THE LAKE COUNTIES INTO THE MIDDLE MORNING
HOURS.
- GRADUALLY WARMING TREND WITH PERIODIC PRECIPITATION CHANCES
THROUGH THE END OF NEXT WEEK.
UPDATE
ISSUED 542 AM CST SUN MAR 1 2026
RADAR IS SHOWING A NARROW BAND OF LIGHT REFLECTIVITY EXTENDING
NORTHEAST OF SHEBOYGAN ACROSS THE CENTRAL PORTIONS OF LAKE
MICHIGAN, WITH ANOTHER AREA OF VERY LIGHT REFLECTIVITY PUSHING
ONSHORE FROM MILWAUKEE SOUTHWARD. THERE MAY BE FLURRIES OR VERY
LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS THAT OCCUR WITH THIS ACTIVITY AS IT SHIFTS
SOUTHWARD NEAR THE SHORELINE OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS.
NOT EXPECTING MUCH MORE THAN A QUICK DUSTING OR A FEW TENTHS OF
AN INCH AT WORST, AND IT'S POSSIBLE THAT MOST OF THIS AREA
REMAINS DRY. FORECAST SOUNDINGS ARE NOT SHOWING MUCH IN THE WAY
OF MOISTURE IN THE LOW LEVELS, WHICH WILL LIMIT ACCUMULATIONS.
THIS ACTIVITY SHOULD SHIFT OUT OF THE AREA AROUND MIDDAY.
THERE ARE ALSO STUBBORN MIDDLE CLOUDS THAT CONTINUE ACROSS
NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE AREA AND TO THE WEST. THESE CLOUDS MAY
LINGER INTO THE MORNING HOURS, THOUGH THEY SHOULD START TO
SCATTER OUT BY MIDDAY OR INTO THE AFTERNOON. AFTER A CHILLY
START, HIGHS SHOULD RISE INTO THE UPPER 20S NORTHEAST TO THE
LOWER 30S SOUTHWEST.
WOOD
SHORT TERM
ISSUED 1035 PM CST SAT FEB 28 2026
TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY:
WEAK COLD ADVECTION, AVA, AND SUBSIDENCE WILL EVENTUALLY LEAD TO
PARTIAL CLEARING TNT ALTHOUGH LAKE EFFECT CLOUDS VIA NELY FLOW
SHOULD MAINTAIN CLOUDY CONDITIONS OVER SAID REGION. DELTA T OF
15-17C WILL EVENTUALLY DEVELOP BUT THE AIRMASS WILL BECOME
INCREASINGLY DRIER WITH PWATS FALLING BELOW 0.20 INCHES. FCST
SOUNDINGS ONLY SHOW A LOW POTENTIAL FOR MEASURABLE LAKE EFFECT
SNOW FOR SUN AM. WILL CONTINUE 20-30 PERCENT CHANCES FOR LAKE
EFFECT SNOW OVER FAR ERN WI TNT-SUN AM.
OTHERWISE HIGH PRESSURE AROUND 1037 MB WILL TRACK FROM THE NRN
GREAT LAKES TO THE LOWER GREAT LAKES FOR SUN-SUN NT. SOME MID
LEVEL CLOUD COVER MAY OCCUR SUN NT-MON VIA MID LEVEL WARM
ADVECTION BUT NO PRECIPITATION IS FORECAST. TEMPS WILL REMAIN
BELOW NORMAL FOR SUN BUT WILL RISE ABOVE NORMAL ON MON AS LGT
SSELY WINDS DEVELOP.
FOR LATE MON NT-TUE WNWLY FLOW ALOFT WILL BECOME ZONAL WITH MID
LEVEL WARM ADVECTION ENSUING. A WARM FRONT WILL ALSO EXTEND FROM
LOW PRESSURE OVER THE SRN GREAT PLAINS TO CENTRAL IL, IN, AND
OHIO. NORTH OF THE FRONT, WARM, MOIST ADVECTION AND PWATS
INCREASING TO 0.55-0.75 INCHES WILL BRING 50-70 PERCENT CHANCES
FOR LIGHT RAIN. FOR TUE NT-WED, THE ENSEMBLE ECMWF ATTEMPTS TO
BUILD HIGH PRESSURE INTO THE AREA, THEREBY KEEPING A FRONTAL
BOUNDARY AND RAIN CHANCES TO THE SOUTH. HOWEVER, THE GEFS
CONTINUES TO SUPPORT A SHORTWAVE TROUGH APPROACHING FROM THE
WEST AND PASSING WED NT, WHILE AT THE SFC, LOW PRESSURE TRACKS
FROM ERN KS TO LOWER MI. WILL STICK WITH THE NBM RAIN CHANCES OF
30-50 PERCENT FOR NOW.
GEHRING
LONG TERM
ISSUED 1035 PM CST SAT FEB 28 2026
THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY:
THE ENS ECMWF REMAINS A SLOWER VERSION OF THE GEFS FOR THIS
PERIOD. THE GEFS SHORTWAVE TROUGH AND LOW PRESSURE AREA THAT
WOULD BRING RAIN TO SRN WI FOR WED-WED NT OCCURS WITH THE ENS ECMWF
ON THU SO WILL MAINTAIN NBM RAIN CHANCES OF 40 PERCENT.
CYCLOGENESIS IS THEN EXPECTED OVER THE GREAT PLAINS LATE IN THE
WEEK WHICH WILL TRACK WEST AND NORTH OF THE REGION BRINGING A
PERIOD OF SLY WINDS AND LIKELY RAIN FOLLOWED BY A COLD FRONT. AS
STATED EARLIER, THE EVOLUTION IS QUICKER WITH THE GEFS THAN THE
ENS ECMWF AND WILL STICK WITH THE NBM RAIN CHANCES OF 50-60
PERCENT FOR FRI-FRI NT. SMALLER RAIN CHANCES THEN LINGER INTO
SAT. WELL ABOVE NORMAL TEMPS ARE EXPECTED FOR THIS PERIOD.
GEHRING
AVIATION
ISSUED 542 AM CST SUN MAR 1 2026
RADAR IS SHOWING A NARROW BAND OF LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS OR FLURRIES
EXTENDING NORTHEAST OF SHEBOYGAN ACROSS THE CENTRAL PORTIONS OF
LAKE MICHIGAN, WITH ANOTHER AREA PUSHING ONSHORE FROM MILWAUKEE
SOUTHWARD. THESE FLURRIES OR VERY LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS MAY OCCUR
AS THEY SHIFT SOUTHWARD NEAR THE SHORELINE OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL
HOURS.
CEILINGS AROUND 3000 TO 3500 FEET AGL ARE EXPECTED WITH LAKE
EFFECT CLOUDS FOR THE TERMINALS NEAR THE LAKE THIS MORNING AND
EARLY THIS AFTERNOON. MAY SEE A BRIEF VISIBILITY REDUCTION TO 4
TO 6 MILES IF ANY SNOW SHOWER DOES MOVE ONSHORE.
NOT EXPECTING MUCH MORE THAN A QUICK DUSTING OR A FEW TENTHS OF
AN INCH AT WORST, AND IT'S POSSIBLE THAT MOST OF THIS AREA
REMAINS DRY. THERE IS NOT MUCH IN THE WAY OF MOISTURE IN THE
LOW LEVELS TO WORK WITH, WHICH WILL LIMIT ACCUMULATIONS. THIS
ACTIVITY SHOULD SHIFT OUT OF THE AREA AROUND MIDDAY.
THERE ARE ALSO STUBBORN MIDDLE CLOUDS AROUND 9000 FEET AGL THAT
CONTINUE ACROSS NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE AREA AND TO THE WEST.
THESE CLOUDS MAY LINGER INTO THE MORNING HOURS, THOUGH THEY
SHOULD START TO SCATTER OUT BY MIDDAY OR INTO THE AFTERNOON.
LIGHT NORTHEAST TO EAST WINDS ARE EXPECTED TODAY.
AS HIGH PRESSURE MOVES EAST OF THE AREA TONIGHT INTO MONDAY,
QUIET WEATHER IS EXPECTED. LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS TONIGHT WILL
BECOME SOUTH TO SOUTHEAST ON MONDAY. MIDDLE TO HIGH CLOUDS WILL
GRADUALLY PUSH INTO THE AREA MONDAY.
WOOD
MARINE
ISSUED 1035 PM CST SAT FEB 28 2026
MODEST NORTH TO NORTHEAST WINDS TONIGHT WILL BECOME LIGHT AND
VARIABLE SUNDAY AFTERNOON INTO SUNDAY NIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE
AROUND 30.7 INCHES TRACKS FROM THE NORTHERN GREAT LAKES TO THE
LOWER GREAT LAKES. BREEZY SOUTH WINDS WILL THEN DEVELOP ON MONDAY
IN RESPONSE TO THE HIGH SHIFTING EAST AND LOW PRESSURE MOVING
ACROSS FAR NORTHERN ONTARIO. A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL THEN BRING A
RETURN OF LIGHT NORTHEAST WINDS BY TUESDAY AFTERNOON. WAVES MAY
REACH 4 FEET TONIGHT AND SUNDAY MORNING SOUTH OF NORTH POINT
LIGHTHOUSE DUE TO PERSISTENT NORTHEAST WINDS.
GEHRING
MKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
WI...NONE.
LM...NONE.
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