152
FXUS63 KMKX 092353
AFDMKX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MILWAUKEE/SULLIVAN WI
653 PM CDT SUN AUG 9 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- THUNDERSTORM CHANCES AGAIN THIS EVENING/TONIGHT FOR
SOUTHEASTERN WI TOWARD THE WI/IL BORDER. STRONGER STORM OR TWO
CANNOT BE RULED OUT.
- ANY STORMS THIS EVENING/TONIGHT WILL BE CAPABLE OF HEAVY RAIN
AND LOCALIZED FLOODING, ESPECIALLY WHERE STORMS REPEATEDLY
TRACK.
- PERIODIC CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE
THROUGH THE FIRST HALF OF THE WEEK.
UPDATE
ISSUED 650 PM CDT SUN AUG 9 2026
CURRENTLY SEEING A NARROW LINE OF STORMS MOVING EASTWARD ACROSS
SOUTHEASTERN WI, BUT AS THEY MOVE OFF OF THE INSTABILITY
GRADIENT, THEN REMAIN RELATIVELY ON THE WEAKER SIDE WITH THE
MAIN HAZARD BEING A BRIEF DOWNPOUR AND LIGHTNING. THIS ACTIVITY
WILL LINGER FOR ANOTHER HOUR OR TWO BEFORE PUSHING OUT OVER LAKE
MICHIGAN.
THERE REMAINS A POSSIBILITY FOR ADDITIONAL SHOWERS AND STORMS TO
DEVELOP LATE THIS EVENING/OVERNIGHT ALONG THE LINGERING
INSTABILITY GRADIENT. THE LATEST TRENDS HAVE THIS AREA EITHER
JUST ALONG THE WI/IL BORDER AND SOUTH THANKS TO THE MORE ROBUST
DAYTIME CONVECTION. NEVERTHELESS, SOME CAMS, SUCH AS A FEW OF
THE MORE RECENT RUNS OF THE HRRR, DO TRY AND SNEAK THAT
INSTABILITY GRADIENT JUST NORTH INTO FAR SOUTH-CENTRAL AND
SOUTHEASTERN WI, WHICH COULD SUPPORT ADDITIONAL THUNDERSTORM
DEVELOPMENT CAPABLE OF PRODUCING HEAVY RAINFALL AND LOCALIZED
FLOODING IF THIS SCENARIO MATERIALIZES. HOWEVER, THE MORE
FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT AND UPPER-LEVEL SUPPORT FAVORS THIS
ACTIVITY TO DEVELOP SOUTH INTO IL/IN AREAS RATHER THAN WI, BUT
BEARS WATCHING.
OTHERWISE, GIVEN THE LIGHT WINDS AND AMPLE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE,
EXPECT WIDESPREAD FOG TO DEVELOP ACROSS SOUTHERN WI OVERNIGHT
INTO EARLY MONDAY MORNING. LOW-LYING AREAS MAY SEE POCKETS OF
LOWER VISIBILITY THROUGH DAYBREAK.
WAGNER
SHORT TERM
ISSUED 200 PM CDT SUN AUG 9 2026
TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT:
THERE WILL BE SOME EVENING STORM POTENTIAL BUT THERE REMAINS
HIGHER UNCERTAINTY GIVEN THE THE DAY TIME CONVECTION AND
UNCERTAINTY IN HOW ITS PROGRESSION WILL AFFECT WHERE THE
BOUNDARY SETS UP TONIGHT IN ADDITION TO THE QUESTIONS REGARDING
RECOVERY. THE WARM FRONT WILL STILL REMAIN WELL TO THE NORTH AND
BRING SOME CONVECTION TO NORTHERN WI WHERE WE WILL BE FOCUSED ON
THE PLACEMENT OF THE REMNANT BOUNDARY FROM DAYTIME STORMS, BUT
THE RETURN FLOW SHOULD ALLOW FOR A WINDOW OF DESTABILIZATION. IN
ADDITION EFFECTIVE BULK SHEAR SHOULD BE AROUND 40-50 KTS. THUS
THE ENVIRONMENT IS CAPABLE OF BRINGING SEVERE STORMS PROVIDED WE
GET STORMS. IN ADDITION, WHERE THIS BOUNDARY SETS UP MAY ALSO
VERY WELL SET UP A SIGNIFICANT HEAVY RAIN SCENARIO GIVEN PWATS
AROUND 2 IN AND LARGELY WEST TO EAST PROPAGATION. FORTUNATELY,
CORFIDI VECTORS ARE A BIT MORE PROGRESSIVE IN THE LATEST MODEL
RUNS. WHEREVER THIS SETS UP THOUGH WE SHOULD EXPECT HEAVY RAIN
AND POTENTIAL FOR FLOODING. LATEST MODELS HAVE GENERALLY TRENDED
THINGS FURTHER SOUTH WITH DEVELOPMENT WITH FAR SOUTHEAST WI
HAVING THE GREATEST RISK FOR EVENING STORMS.
OUTSIDE OF LIGHT POCKETS OF RAIN FROM WAA OVERNIGHT INTO MONDAY
WE WILL CARRY LIMITED PRECIP CHANCES AS THE WARM FRONT SAGS
SOUTH OUT THE AREA TONIGHT. MOST MODELS HAVE THE FRONT STALLING
JUST SOUTH OF THE WI/IL BORDER WITH MONDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING
ACTIVITY LARGELY STAYING SOUTH OF THE CWA THOUGH IF THIS FRONT
IS EVEN SLIGHTLY FURTHER NORTH THAT WOULD PUT US IN A ZONE OF
INCREASED STORM POTENTIAL. GIVEN PLENTY OF INSTABILITY OVER 2000
J/KG AND EFFECTIVE BULK SHEAR IN THE 40-55KT RANGE THERE WILL BE
POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE STORMS THOUGH FORCING MAY NOT BE STRONG
ENOUGH FROM JUST THE FRONT AS SEVERAL CAMS STRUGGLE TO PRODUCE
CONVECTION AT ALL MONDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING. THIS WILL BE A
PERIOD TO WATCH BUT CHANCES WILL BE LIMITED AS THERE ARE
MULTIPLE PIECES OF MODEL OUTPUT THAT LIMITED CHANCES FOR STORMS
GENERALLY IN ADDITION TO THE LOCATION OF ANY INITIATION LIKELY
BEING FOCUSED SOUTH. WE WILL BE MENTORING FORCING AND POTENTIAL
INITIATION LOCATION CLOSELY OVER THE NEXT 12-24 HOURS.
KUROSKI
LONG TERM
ISSUED 200 PM CDT SUN AUG 9 2026
TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY:
EARLY TUESDAY MORNING A SHORTWAVE WILL BE SLIDING THROUGH
SOUTHERN MN INTO SOUTHERN WI AND/OR NORTHERN IL INTO THE DAY
WITH AN INSTABILITY GRADIENT LIKELY SET UP WNW TO ESE IN THAT
SAME GENERAL VICINITY. THIS WILL LIKELY BE ELEVATED GIVEN THE
MORNING TIMING BUT WE CANNOT RULE OUT SOMETHING SURFACE BASED
AND GIVEN DEEP LAYER SHEAR AROUND 40+ KTS SEVERE STORMS COULD BE
POSSIBLE THROUGH THE EARLY AFTERNOON AS THIS FEATURE TRACKS
THROUGH THE REGION. THERE IS NATURALLY QUITE A BIT OF
UNCERTAINTY WITH THIS GIVEN SOME MUCH ACTIVITY THROUGH MONDAY
THAT MAY AFFECT TUESDAY POTENTIAL BUT THE SETUP IS FAVORABLE FOR
STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS WITH HEAVY RAIN. WE DO GET A SNEAK PEEK
AT SOME THE END OF THE TIME RANGE OF CAMS FOR THIS PERIOD AND A
THERE ARE SEVERAL THAT DEVELOP ORGANIZED CONVECTION TRACKING FOR
WI/IL BORDER SO THAT WILL BE SOMETHING TO WATCH.
BEYOND TUESDAY UNCERTAINTY INCREASES SIGNIFICANTLY THOUGH THE
PATTERN REMAINS THE SAME WITH RIDGE TO THE WEST AND TROUGH TO
THE EAST THAT THE UPPER LEVELS INDICATE SEVERAL SHORTWAVES
SWINGING THROUGH THROUGHOUT THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK. IN
ADDITION, THE INSTABILITY GRADIENT WILL LIKELY BE IN THE REGION
THROUGHOUT THE WEEK WITH DECENTLY STRONG SHEAR. CANNOT RULE OUT
STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS AT VARIOUS POINTS THE REST OF THE WEEK
KUROSKI
AVIATION
ISSUED 650 PM CDT SUN AUG 9 2026
A NARROW LINE OF WEAKENING SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL IMPACT FAR
SOUTHEASTERN TERMINALS THROUGH 01Z BEFORE DIMINISHING/MOVING OUT
OVER LAKE MICHIGAN. THEN WILL BE KEEPING AN EYE ON THE POTENTIAL
FOR ADDITIONAL DEVELOP LATER THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT FOR
TERMINALS ALONG AND JUST NORTH OF THE WI/IL BORDER. THE MORE
FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENTS REMAINS DOWN IN IL TO SUPPORT THIS
ACTIVITY, HOWEVER CANNOT COMPLETE RULE OUT SEEING IT SHIFT JUST
NORTH OF THE WI BORDER. IF THIS CASE MATERIALIZES, THEN
TERMINALS SUCH AS JVL OR ENW COULD SEE A PERIOD OF HEAVY
RAINFALL, REDUCED VISIBILITY, ALONG WITH A FEW STRONGER GUSTS
MAINLY BETWEEN 03-07Z. OTHERWISE, MUCH OF SOUTHERN WI TERMINALS
WILL SEE LIGHTER WINDS PAIRED WITH AMPLE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE TO
SUPPORT FOG DEVELOPMENT AND LOWERING CEILINGS. EXPECT WIDESPREAD
MVFR LEVELS TO ACCOMPANY THESE CONDITIONS, WITH POCKETS OF IFR
AND EVEN LIFR ESPECIALLY FOR AREAS THAT SAW HEAVIER RAINFALL
EARLIER IN THE DAY. THEN CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO IMPROVE
AFTER DAYBREAK AS THE STALLED FRONTAL BOUNDARY REMAINS SOUTH OF
THE AREA INTO IL AND WEAK HIGH PRESSURE TRIES TO BUILD IN
THROUGH THE AFTERNOON.
WAGNER
MARINE
ISSUED 200 PM CDT SUN AUG 9 2026
WINDS WILL BECOME LIGHT AND MOSTLY VARIABLE AHEAD OF A SAGGING
FRONT. THE FRONT WILL MOVE SOUTHWARD DOWN THE LAKE INTO MONDAY,
LEADING TO LIGHT NORTHERLY WINDS THROUGH THE MORNING ON MONDAY AND
LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS MONDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. LIGHT AND
VARIABLE WINDS THEN PERSIST INTO TUESDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE OF 30.0
INCHES REMAINS IN PLACE NORTH OF A FRONTAL BOUNDARY PARKED OVER
THE CORN BELT. OTHERWISE AN UNSETTLED WEATHER PATTERN HAS SET UP
OVER THE UPPER GREAT LAKES THIS WEEK WHERE WEAK WAVES OF LOW
PRESSURE WILL CROSS THE REGION AND PRODUCE ROUNDS OF THUNDERSTORMS
AT TIMES PRIMARILY A RISK FOR THE SOUTH HALF. THE FIRST ROUND OF
WEAKENING STORMS SHOULD ARRIVE LATE MORNING AND EARLY AFTERNOON,
AND ADDITIONAL STORMS ARE POSSIBLE THERE SUNDAY NIGHT AND BEYOND.
KUROSKI
MKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
WI...NONE.
LM...NONE.
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