831
FXUS63 KMKX 112352 AAA
AFDMKX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MILWAUKEE/SULLIVAN WI
652 PM CDT SAT JUL 11 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- HOT TEMPERATURES WILL RETURN EARLY NEXT WEEK, WITH HIGHS IN
THE LOW TO MID 90S MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY. HEAT INDICES MAY
REACH 100 AT TIMES.
- DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED THROUGH WEDNESDAY, WITH THUNDERSTORM
CHANCES RETURNING LATE IN THE WEEK.
UPDATE
ISSUED 652 PM CDT SAT JUL 11 2026
EAST-NORTHEASTERLY WINDS WILL DIMINISH QUICKLY AS WE DECOUPLE
THIS EVENING DUE TO HIGH PRESSURE AND CLEAR SKIES OVERHEAD. LOW
TEMPERATURES WILL DROP TO AROUND 60, SIMILAR TO THE DEWPOINT
VALUES. THEREFORE, PATCHY FOG IS POSSIBLE ONCE AGAIN WEST OF
MADISON, ESPECIALLY WITHIN THE WISCONSIN RIVER VALLEY. DEW IS
MORE LIKELY EAST OF THERE.
CRONCE
SHORT TERM
ISSUED 1137 AM CDT SAT JUL 11 2026
TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT:
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE OVERHEAD TODAY WILL STRENGTHEN A BIT MORE
TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY, WHILE A STRONG UPPER LEVEL RIDGE BUILDS IN
FROM THE WEST. SCATTERED CUMULUS CLOUDS ARE POSSIBLE AWAY FROM
LAKE MICHIGAN THIS AFTERNOON, BUT OTHERWISE MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES
ARE LIKELY THROUGH TOMORROW. PATCHY RIVER VALLEY FOG WILL BE
POSSIBLE AGAIN LATER TONIGHT INTO EARLY SUNDAY UNDER MOSTLY
CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS. TEMPERATURES WILL WARM UP A BIT
MORE TOMORROW WITH HIGHS INTO THE UPPER 80S, THOUGH TEMPS WILL
BE JUST A BIT COOLER NEAR THE LAKE UNDER ONSHORE WINDS.
DDV
LONG TERM
ISSUED 1137 AM CDT SAT JUL 11 2026
MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY:
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE AND THE UPPER RIDGE ARE EXPECTED TO
REMAIN IN PLACE SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY, WITH THE RIDGE GRADUALLY
FLATTENING MID TO LATE WEEK WHILE THE SURFACE HIGH WEAKENS.
TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO WARM UP EARLY WEEK UNDER THE
STRONG UPPER RIDGE. MODELS HAVE BEEN TRENDING UPWARDS WITH HIGH
TEMPS MONDAY-WEDNESDAY, WITH 925 MB TEMPS IN THE 26-30C RANGE
DURING THIS PERIOD. GIVEN PLENTY OF SUNSHINE AND RELATIVELY
LIGHT WINDS THESE DAYS, BUMPED HIGHS UP TO THE LOW TO MID 90S.
THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME UPPER 90S TO AROUND 100 IF THE
FORECAST 925 MB TEMPS HOLD. COULD ALSO SEE THESE HIGHER END
TEMPS IF THE DEWPOINTS END UP A BIT LOWER THAN ANTICIPATED.
WHILE THE GFS REMAINS A BIT COOLER (AS IT DOES SOMETIMES DURING
HOTTER STRETCHES), THE ECMWF AND CANADIAN ENSEMBLE PROBABILITIES
FOR TEMPS OF 90+ ARE IN THE 90 TO 100 PERCENT RANGE, ESPECIALLY
MONDAY AND TUESDAY. THE LATEST RRFS IS ALSO SHOWING HIGH TEMPS
WELL INTO THE 90S MON AND TUE.
STILL THINK DEWPOINTS SHOULD BE A BIT LOWER THAN THE LAST HOT
STRETCH, MAXING OUT IN THE UPPER 60S TO LOW 70S. THERE IS A
FAIRLY WIDE SPREAD AMONG MODELS WITH THE DEWPOINT FORECAST MON-
WED, RANGING FROM MIXING OUT TO THE UPPER 50S/LOW 60S TO LOCKED
IN THE MID-70S. WINDS WILL GENERALLY BE LIGHT OUT OF THE WEST
MON-WED UNDER THE HIGH, SO THERE WON'T BE STRONG LOW LEVEL
ADVECTION OF HIGHER DEWPOINTS. WITH MATURING CROPS THOUGH,
EVAPOTRANSPIRATION COULD ADD A MEANINGFUL AMOUNT OF MOISTURE TO
THE LOW LEVELS. THE DEWPOINTS WILL PLAY A SIGNIFICANT ROLE WITH
HOW HIGH HEAT INDICES END UP, LEADING TO SOME UNCERTAINTY WITH
HEAT HEADLINE POTENTIAL. WENT WITH DEWPOINTS DOWN THE MIDDLE OF
POTENTIAL SOLUTIONS FOR NOW, WHICH IS LEADING TO FORECAST HEAT
INDICES IN THE UPPER 90S TO LOW 100S FOR AT LEAST MONDAY AND
TUESDAY.
AS THE RIDGE FLATTENS LATER NEXT WEEK, TEMPS SHOULD FALL BACK
TOWARD NORMAL VALUES. ADDITIONALLY, THE DOOR WILL OPEN BACK UP
FOR SHOWER/STORM CHANCES THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY AS A
SHORTWAVE OR TWO COMES OVER TOP OF THE FLATTENING RIDGE.
DDV
AVIATION
ISSUED 652 PM CDT SAT JUL 11 2026
EAST-NORTHEASTERLY WINDS WILL DIMINISH QUICKLY AS WE DECOUPLE
THIS EVENING DUE TO HIGH PRESSURE AND CLEAR SKIES OVERHEAD. THE
HIGH WILL DRIFT ACROSS THE WI/IL BORDER ON SUNDAY, SO FORECAST
WINDS IN THE TAFS HAVE SOME UNCERTAINTY, ESPECIALLY IN THE
DIRECTION. HOWEVER, WE CAN EXPECT A LAKE BREEZE. SCATTERED
CUMULUS CLOUDS WITH BASES OF AROUND 5000 FT WILL BE POSSIBLE,
BUT NOT CERTAIN.
CRONCE
MARINE
ISSUED 1137 AM CDT SAT JUL 11 2026
HIGH PRESSURE OF 30.1 INCHES OVER THE GREAT LAKES TODAY WILL
STRENGTHEN TO 30.2 INCHES BY SUNDAY MORNING. THE HIGH WILL
LARGELY STAY PUT THROUGH THE FIRST HALF OF NEXT WEEK, EVENTUALLY
WEAKENING AND SHIFTING SOUTHWARD BY LATE IN THE WEEK AHEAD OF
AN APPROACHING TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE. NORTHERLY WINDS GENERALLY
UNDER 15 KNOTS THROUGH TODAY WILL BECOME SOUTHERLY ACROSS THE
NORTH SUNDAY, WHILE BECOMING LIGHT AND VARIABLE IN THE SOUTH.
WINDS WILL BECOME SOUTHERLY ACROSS THE LAKE MONDAY, INCREASING A
BIT BY TUESDAY.
DDV
MKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
WI...NONE.
LM...NONE.
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