374
FXUS63 KMKX 240339
AFDMKX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MILWAUKEE/SULLIVAN WI
1039 PM CDT FRI OCT 23 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- DENSE FOG HAS FORMED OVER EAST-CENTRAL WI AND IS SLOWLY
SPREADING SOUTHWARD INTO TONIGHT. DENSE FOG ADVISORY ALREADY
IN EFFECT FOR SHEBOYGAN COUNTY. EXPANSIONS OF THE ADVISORY
FURTHER SOUTH ARE POSSIBLE LATER TONIGHT.
- ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES & RAIN-FREE CONDITIONS CONTINUE INTO
THE WEEKEND.
- TEMPERATURES CLOSER TO NORMAL EARLY NEXT WEEK, FOLLOWED BY A
RETURN TO WARMER WEATHER MIDWEEK.
SHORT TERM
ISSUED 1030 PM CDT FRI OCT 23 2026
TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT:
LIGHT SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS AND LINGERING HUMIDITY OVER LAKE MI
HAVE FORMED A BANK OF FOG AND LOW STRATUS CLOUDS DRIFTING INTO
SHEBOYGAN COUNTY AND POINTS NORTH. METARS AND DOT CAMERAS
CONFIRM THE FOG IS DENSE IN SHEBOYGAN COUNTY, AND A DENSE FOG
ADVISORY WILL REMAIN IN EFFECT THROUGH 9 AM SATURDAY MORNING
(UNLESS TRENDS WARRANT A CHANGE). AN EXPANSION OF THIS ADVISORY
SOUTHWARD INTO WASHINGTON AND OZAUKEE COUNTIES LATER TONIGHT IS
POSSIBLE, GIVEN GOES NIGHT FOG RGB COMPOSITES AND SURFACE
OBSERVATIONS ARE BEGINNING TO INDICATE A SOUTHWARD CREEP TO THE
FOG OVER TIME, MAINLY ALONG AND EAST OF THE KETTLE MORAINE
HILLS. WE COULD EVEN SEE THIS FOG CONTINUE SOUTH INTO THE MKE
METRO LATE TONIGHT, THOUGH FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS LOW.
THE COMBINATION OF CONTINUED AIRFLOW AT THE SURFACE, ABUNDANT
HIGH- ALTITUDE CLOUD COVER, AND WEAK TERRAIN-LOCKING OF THE
KETTLE MORAINE HILLS SHOULD PREVENT ANY FOG FORMATION FURTHER
INLAND. FROM A FOND DU LAC TO WALWORTH LINE WESTWARD, LOOKING
FOG FREE FOR TONIGHT AT THIS TIME.
INTO POST-DAWN SATURDAY MORNING, WINDS TURN DUE SOUTH AND
ACCELERATE SLIGHTLY, CLEARING AWAY ANY LINGERING FOG. ADDITIONAL
PERIODS OF BROKEN HIGH-ALTITUDE CLOUD COVER ARE ANTICIPATED
THROUGH SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT, BUT DRY WEATHER CONTINUES
ALL THE SAME. HIGHS IN THE LOW 70S EXPECTED INLAND; SOME
SHORELINE VENTILATION (SSE WINDS) COULD HOLD HIGHS TO THE MID
60S FOR FAR EASTERN WI.
SHEPPARD
LONG TERM
ISSUED 1030 PM CDT FRI OCT 23 2026
SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY:
LOW PRESSURE TRACKING EAST ACROSS HUDSON BAY CANADA THIS WEEKEND
WILL DRAG A COLD FRONT INTO WI. THE FRONT SHOULD REACH
NORTHWESTERN PORTIONS OF WI BY LATE SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY
MORNING, WITH STRONG HIGH PRESSURE OVER SASKATCHEWAN THEN
FORCING THE FRONT ACROSS SOUTHERN WI LATER SUNDAY THROUGH SUNDAY
NIGHT. PREDOMINANTLY DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED TO ACCOMPANY THE
FRONTAL PASSAGE, AND THE LATE ARRIVAL OF THE FRONT ALLOWS
DAYTIME HIGHS TO REACH THE LOW 70S SUNDAY. CAA BEHIND THE FRONT
KICKS IN LATE SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY, WITH NORTHEASTERLY
WINDS OFF THE LAKE. AS SUCH, CENTRAL AND EASTERN WI ARE FORECAST
TO OBSERVE HIGHS IN THE 50S, WITH HIGHS IN THE MID 60S FURTHER
WEST ALONG THE SOUTHERN EDGE OF THE STATE.
MEANWHILE ON MONDAY, A 500MB SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL DIG INTO THE
CENTRAL GREAT PLAINS, PHASING WITH THE AFOREMENTIONED FRONTAL
BOUNDARY TO SEED SURFACE LOW PRESSURE. THIS LOW PRESSURE LOOKS
TO LIFT NORTHEAST INTO MONDAY NIGHT, BRINGING SOME 5-15% RAIN
CHANCES TO THE CWA. THE BULK OF THE QPF AND HIGHER PRECIP
CHANCES WITH THIS SYSTEM LAND IN MN AND NORTHWESTERN WI,
LEAVING US PREDOMINANTLY DRY AS IT PASSES. THE REMNANT
BAROCLINIC ZONE FROM THAT ACTIVITY THEN SETS THE STAGE FOR AN
ADDITIONAL UPPER TROUGH AND SURFACE LOW TO SLIDE NORTHEAST FROM
THE PLAINS MIDWEEK. THE PLACEMENT OF PRECIP WITH THIS SECOND
SYSTEM IS LESS CERTAIN, BUT COULD TRACK THROUGH THE SAME
CORRIDOR OF MN / NW-WI OR FURTHER EAST. ~15-30% PRECIP CHANCES
ARE FORECAST FOR THE CWA WEDNESDAY UNTIL ENSEMBLES CONVERGE ON A
SYSTEM TRACK. IN ANY SCENARIO, WE WILL BE IN THE WARM SECTOR OF
BOTH PASSING SYSTEMS, RESULTING IN A WARMING TREND TOWARDS
MIDWEEK.
THIS SAME PATTERN LOOKS TO CONTINUE LATER THIS WEEK, WITH
ADDITIONAL RAIN CHANCES.
SHEPPARD
AVIATION
ISSUED 1030 PM CDT FRI OCT 23 2026
DENSE FOG AND LOW STRATUS CLOUDS (PERSISTENT LIFR) HAVE FORMED
OVER SHEBOYGAN COUNTY AND POINTS NORTH AS LIGHT SOUTHEAST
SURFACE WINDS ADVECT HUMID AIR ONSHORE. THIS ACTIVITY IS LIKELY
TO PERSIST THROUGH AROUND DAYBREAK SATURDAY MORNING, AND COULD
(POTENTIALLY) SPREAD FURTHER SOUTH OVERNIGHT, MAINLY FOR AREAS
EAST OF THE KETTLE MORAINE HILLS, POTENTIALLY TO KMKE AND KRAC
(LOWER POTENTIAL BUT STILL CAN'T RULE OUT KENW). SATELLITE
SIGNATURES AND SURFACE OBSERVATIONS SHOW THAT THE SOUTHWARD
CREEP (FROM SHEBOYGAN INTO OZAUKEE AND WASHINGTON COUNTY) IS
UNDERWAY, AND IF IT PERSISTS, MKE TAF MAY REQUIRE AN AMENDMENT
TO ADD FOG POTENTIAL LATE TONIGHT INTO EARLY SATURDAY MORNING.
FURTHER INLAND, BROKEN HIGH-ALTITUDE CLOUDS AND CONTINUED
SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS SHOULD PREVENT FOG FORMATION.
WINDS TURN DUE SOUTH INTO SATURDAY AND BECOME BREEZY, REMOVING
THE FOG WITHIN A FEW HOURS AFTER SUNRISE. PERIODS OF HIGH-
ALTITUDE CLOUDS CONTINUE TO ROLL THROUGH SATURDAY AND SATURDAY
NIGHT, BUT DRY WEATHER AND VFR IS ANTICIPATED.
SHEPPARD
MARINE
ISSUED 1030 PM CDT FRI OCT 23 2026
OPEN WATERS / SYNOPSIS:
HIGH PRESSURE AROUND 30.4 INCHES WILL SAG SOUTH FROM QUEBEC INTO
THE NORTHEASTERN CONUS OVERNIGHT INTO SATURDAY MORNING.
MEANWHILE, 29.4 INCH LOW PRESSURE TRACKS FROM NORTHEAST MONTANA
INTO MANITOBA. POSITIONING OF THESE SURFACE FEATURES IS RESULTING
IN GENERALLY SOUTH TO SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS ACROSS THE WATERS. AREAS
OF FOG, SOME OF WHICH HAVE BEEN DENSE, WILL LIKELY CONTINUE
THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS OVER THE NORTHERN TWO THIRDS OF THE
LAKE, GRADUALLY DISSIPATING POST-DAWN SATURDAY MORNING AS WINDS
TURN DUE SOUTH AND ACCELERATE. THAT BEING SAID, SATELLITE
SIGNATURES AND SHIP OBSERVATIONS CURRENTLY CONFIRM THAT THE WORST
OF THE FOG IS IN THE EASTERN AND WESTERN NEARSHORE ZONES, RATHER
THAN THE OPEN WATERS.
THE AFOREMENTIONED AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE ON TOWARD
THE HUDSON BAY BY SATURDAY EVENING AS IT DEEPENS TO NEAR 29.2
INCHES. PROGRESSION OF THE LOW WILL MAINTAIN GENERALLY SOUTHERLY
FLOW ACROSS THE WATERS, WITH GUSTS BETWEEN 25-30 KNOTS POSSIBLE
OVER THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE LAKE SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND NIGHT.
CAN'T RULE OUT AN ISOLATED GUST APPROACHING GALE FORCE DURING THIS
TIME FRAME, WITH CONDITIONS NOT EXPECTED TO BE WIDESPREAD ENOUGH
FOR HEADLINES.
WINDS WILL TREND SOUTHWESTERLY WHILE STEADILY WEAKENING AHEAD OF AN
APPROACHING COLD FRONT ON SUNDAY. CURRENTLY EXPECTING THE FRONT TO
MOVE SOUTH ACROSS LAKE MICHIGAN LATE SUNDAY AFTERNOON INTO SUNDAY
EVENING, BRINGING A BREEZY NORTHEAST WIND SHIFT. GALES ARE NOT
ANTICIPATED DURING THE FRONTAL PASSAGE, WITH ANY ISOLATED RAIN
SHOWERS EXPECTED TO REMAIN OVER THE FAR NORTHERN PART OF THE LAKE.
BREEZY NORTHEAST WINDS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH MONDAY AS 30.7 INCH
HIGH PRESSURE SLIDES INTO ONTARIO FROM THE CANADIAN GREAT PLAINS.
WINDS WILL TREND EASTERLY AND EVENTUALLY SOUTHERLY TUESDAY INTO
THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK AS THE AFOREMENTIONED HIGH SHIFTS INTO THE
NORTHEASTERN UNITED STATES. WIDESPREAD RAIN CHANCES RETURN
WEDNESDAY INTO FRIDAY.
NEARSHORE ZONES:
A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT NORTH OF PORT WASHINGTON
FROM NOON TO 10 PM SATURDAY. ACCELERATING SOUTHERLY WINDS
EXPECTED SATURDAY, OBTAINING GUSTS TO ROUGHLY 20-25 KT BY MIDDAY
AND LEADING TO GRADUALLY BUILDING WAVES. SIG WAVE HEIGHTS CREST
BETWEEN 3 AND 5 FEET SATURDAY AFTERNOON, AND LINGER INTO THE
EVENING AS WINDS SUBSIDE.
ADDITIONAL ADVISORY CONDITIONS ARE LOOKING LIKELY MONDAY INTO
TUESDAY, WITH GUSTY NORTHEAST WINDS AND BUILDING WAVES EXPECTED
BEHIND A COLD FRONT.
SHEPPARD
MKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
WI...DENSE FOG ADVISORY...WIZ052 UNTIL 9 AM SATURDAY.
LM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY...LMZ643...NOON SATURDAY TO 10 PM
SATURDAY.
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