239
FXUS63 KMKX 231859
AFDMKX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MILWAUKEE/SULLIVAN WI
159 PM CDT FRI OCT 23 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- LINGERING FOG ALONG THE IMMEDIATE LAKE MICHIGAN SHORELINE
THROUGH MID-AFTERNOON (~3 PM).
- ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES & RAIN-FREE CONDITIONS CONTINUE INTO
THE WEEKEND.
- TEMPERATURES CLOSER TO NORMAL NEXT WEEK, WITH CHANCES FOR RAIN
NORTHWEST MONDAY NIGHT/TUESDAY & AREAWIDE AT SOME POINT
WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY.
SHORT TERM
ISSUED 200 PM CDT FRI OCT 23 2026
THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT:
SYNOPSIS/MESOANALYSIS: LOW PRESSURE IS CENTERED OVER NORTHEASTERN
MONTANA THIS AFTERNOON. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY PLACES AN UPPER TROUGH
OVER THE NORTH-CENTRAL ROCKY MOUNTAINS. THE TROUGH WILL EJECT
NORTHEAST INTO THE CANADIAN PRAIRIES TONIGHT, ALLOWING THE SURFACE
LOW TO CONCURRENTLY DEEPEN AND BUILD NORTHEAST. BOTH THE LOW AND THE
UPPER TROUGH WILL CONTINUE ON TOWARD THE HUDSON BAY SATURDAY NIGHT,
PULLING A COLD FRONT INTO THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES IN THE PROCESS.
THE FRONT WILL REMAIN NORTH OF THE REGION THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/THE
CONCLUSION OF THE SHORT TERM PERIOD, WITH PREFRONTAL SOUTHWESTERLY
WINDS MAINTAINING ABOVE NORMAL HIGH TEMPERATURES.
THIS AFTERNOON: AREAS OF FOG WILL CONTINUE TO LINGER ALONG THE
IMMEDIATE LAKE MICHIGAN SHORELINE THROUGH ~3 PM. PERSISTENT
SOUTHEASTERLY SURFACE FLOW HAS HELPED MAINTAIN MARINE FOG LONGER
THAN MODELED BY FORECAST GUIDANCE, WITH THE WESTERN EDGE OF THE FOG
BANK LEAKING INTO PORTIONS OF THE IMMEDIATE LAKESHORE AREAS IN
OZAUKEE, MILWAUKEE, RACINE AND KENOSHA COUNTIES. ABRUPT DROPS IN
VISIBILITY HAVE BEEN NOTED IN THESE AREAS, WITH DRASTIC IMPROVEMENTS
TO FULL VISIBILITY OCCURRING JUST A FEW MILES INLAND. GIVEN THE
IMPACTFUL BUT LIMITED AREAL SCOPE OF THE INLAND FOG, HAVE HANDLED
POCKETS OF LAKESHORE FOG WITH A SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT THROUGH 3
PM. WITH SATELLITE TRENDS SHOWING STEADY EROSION OF THE RESPONSIBLE
MARINE FOG BANK, NOT EXPECTING THE NEED TO EXTEND THIS STATEMENT
BEYOND 3 PM OR UPGRADE TO ANY DENSE FOG ADVISORIES AT THIS TIME.
SLOW DOWN, USE LOW BEAM HEADLIGHTS, AND ALLOW FOR EXTRA FOLLOWING
DISTANCE IF TRAVELING LAKESIDE THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON.
TONIGHT: WILL NEED TO WATCH FOR SOME PATCHY FOG ACROSS FAR
NORTHEASTERN PARTS OF THE CWA. MORE WIDESPREAD FOG POTENTIAL SHOULD
BE CURBED BY INCREASING SOUTHERLY WINDS AS THE SURFACE PRESSURE
GRADIENT TIGHTENS AHEAD OF THE DEVELOPING CANADIAN PRAIRIES SURFACE
LOW. WILL BE MONITORING VISIBILITY TRENDS. INCREASING WARM ADVECTION
IN THE 925-700 MB LAYER WILL SUPPORT INCREASING MID-UPPER LEVEL
CLOUDS, WITH ANY APPRECIABLE RAIN CHANCES EXPECTED TO REMAIN OVER
NORTHERN WISCONSIN. WILL BE MONITORING FOR ANY POSSIBLE CHANGES INTO
THIS EVENING.
QUIGLEY
LONG TERM
ISSUED 200 PM CDT FRI OCT 23 2026
SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY:
SYNOPSIS: THE COLD FRONT LINGERING TO THE NORTH OF THE REGION WILL
PROGRESS THROUGH THE AREA ON SUNDAY, SLOWLY WASHING OUT IN THE
PROCESS. NORTH-NORTHEAST WINDS WILL BECOME ESTABLISHED IN THE WAKE
OF THE BOUNDARY, AND WILL BE REINFORCED INTO MONDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE
MOVES INTO ONTARIO FROM THE CANADIAN PRAIRIES. AFFILIATED WITH UPPER
TROUGHING CURRENTLY MOVING INTO SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA, AN UPPER WAVE
WILL SLOWLY EJECT FROM THE ROCKIES INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS ON
MONDAY. THE WAVE WILL DEAMPLIFY AS IT TRIES TO WORK TOWARD NORTHERN
WISCONSIN ON TUESDAY, DECAYING OVER THE GENERAL VICINITY TUESDAY
NIGHT. RAIN IS POSSIBLE IN THE VICINITY OF THE UPPER WAVE MONDAY
NIGHT INTO TUESDAY, PARTICULARLY OVER THE NORTHWEST HALF OF THE
AREA. UNCERTAINTY INCREASES---BOTH IN DETERMINISTIC AND ENSEMBLE
GUIDANCE---MOVING INTO THE MID-LATE PORTIONS OF NEXT WEEK, WITH AN
UPPER TROUGH & AFFILIATED SURFACE FRONT EXPECTED TO MOVE THROUGH THE
WESTERN GREAT LAKES AT SOME POINT DURING THE WEDNESDAY-FRIDAY TIME
FRAME. AMPLITUDE, STRENGTH, AND PRECISE PASSAGE TIMING OF THE
FEATURES REMAIN UNCERTAIN, MAKING IT DIFFICULT TO OFFER EXACT
DETAILS REGARDING PRECIPITATION CHANCES AND ANY POST-FRONTAL
TEMPERATURE DROPS AT THIS TIME. WILL CONTINUE TO PROVIDE UPDATES AS
TRENDS CLARIFY OVER COMING FORECASTS.
MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY: WILL BE MONITORING FOR POSSIBLE RAIN
CHANCES AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING UPPER SHORTWAVE. GENERAL CONSENSUS
DEPICTED IN GUIDANCE IS FOR THE WAVE TO INDUCE WEAK SURFACE
CYCLOGENESIS FROM THE DAKOTAS INTO IOWA, WITH RAIN BLOSSOMING ALONG
THE NORTHEAST PERIPHERY OF THE SURFACE LOW WHERE 1) MID-LEVEL DPVA
AND 2) FRONTOGENESIS WILL BE MAXIMIZED IN THE 1000-700 MB LAYER.
SOME UNCERTAINTY REMAINS REGARDING WHERE EXACTLY THESE FORCING
MECHANISMS WILL OVERLAP, WITH THE STRENGTH OF HIGH PRESSURE IN THE
OHIO VALLEY BEING THE PRIMARY NORTHWEST-SOUTHEAST MODULATOR OF
PRECIP PLACEMENT. AS OF THIS FORECAST, APPEARS THAT THE NORTHWEST
HALF OF THE AREA WILL BE MOST FAVORED FOR PRECIP, AS THIS IS WHERE
SEPARATION FROM THE OHIO VALLEY HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE GREATEST.
BLENDED PRECIP PROBABILITY SOLUTION FROM THE NBM THUS APPEARS
REASONABLE AT THIS TIME, AND HAS BEEN LARGELY MAINTAINED IN THE
AFTERNOON UPDATE. WILL CONTINUE TO PROVIDE UPDATES IN COMING
FORECASTS.
WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY: EXPECTING THAT RAIN CHANCES & COOLER
TEMPERATURES WILL RETURN AREAWIDE AT SOME POINT AS AN UPPER TROUGH
AND COLD FRONT MOVE THROUGH THE REGION. PRIMARY QUESTION IS THAT OF
TIMING, WITH A NUMBER OF DIFFERENT SOLUTIONS EVIDENT IN CURRENT
GLOBAL FORECAST GUIDANCE. AS SUCH, BLENDED PRECIP PROBABILITIES FROM
THE CURRENT NBM DEPICT A WIDE RANGE OF CHANCE (~20-40%) RAIN
POTENTIAL DURING THIS PORTION OF THE PERIOD, WHEN IN REALITY A
NARROWER WINDOW OF WIDESPREAD RAIN POTENTIAL WILL EMERGE AS THE
FORECAST PICTURE CLARIFIES INTO NEXT WEEK. WITH A MULTITUDE OF
POTENTIAL SOLUTIONS IN PLACE & NONE MORE FAVORED THAN THE OTHER,
HAVE MAINTAINED THE WIDER WINDOW OF PRECIP POTENTIAL IN THE
AFTERNOON UPDATE. WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR TRENDS INTO NEXT WEEK.
QUIGLEY
AVIATION
ISSUED 200 PM CDT FRI OCT 23 2026
PREDOMINANTLY VFR FLIGHT CATEGORIES PREVAIL THROUGH THE PERIOD AT
ALL TERMINALS. EARLIER DAY FOG HAS LARGELY DISSIPATED REGION-WIDE,
THOUGH VIS REDUCTIONS CONTINUE TO LINGER ALONG THE IMMEDIATE LAKE
MICHIGAN SHORELINE. WHILE SAID REDUCTIONS HAVE REMAINED EAST OF MKE
AND ENW, THEY HAVE RESULTED IN REPORTS OF FEW CLOUDS BASED NEAR
FL010 AT MKE. HAVE ACCOUNTED FOR THESE TRENDS NEAR-TERM AT MKE, WITH
THE EXPECTATION FOR VIS REDUCTIONS TO REMAIN LARGELY IN
PLACE/WITHOUT ANY INLAND EXPANSION PRIOR TO THEIR DISSIPATION LATER
THIS AFTERNOON. SCT TO BKN MID-UPPER LEVEL CLOUDS WILL GRADUALLY
BUILD IN TONIGHT INTO SATURDAY AS A DISTURBANCE MOVES FROM THE
NORTHERN PLAINS TOWARD LAKE SUPERIOR. NOT ANTICIPATING ANY
PRECIPITATION WITH THIS DISTURBANCE AT THIS TIME.
QUIGLEY
MARINE
ISSUED 200 PM CDT FRI OCT 23 2026
1030 MB HIGH PRESSURE IS CENTERED OVER QUEBEC THIS AFTERNOON, WITH
996 MB LOW PRESSURE POSITIONED OVER NORTHEASTERN MONTANA.
POSITIONING OF THESE SURFACE FEATURES IS RESULTING IN GENERALLY
SOUTH TO SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS ACROSS THE WATERS. AREAS OF FOG, SOME
OF WHICH HAVE BEEN DENSE, WILL LINGER THROUGH THE FIRST HALF OF THE
AFTERNOON. BASED ON OBSERVATIONAL TRENDS, HAVE MAINTAINED THE MARINE
DENSE FOG ADVISORY ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE WATERS THROUGH 3 PM CDT,
AND WILL BE MONITORING FOR ADDITIONAL ADJUSTMENTS. EXPECTING FOG TO
FULLY DISSIPATE BY EARLY EVENING AT THE LATEST. AFOREMENTIONED AREA
OF LOW PRESSURE WILL PROGRESS TOWARD LAKE WINNIPEG TONIGHT,
CONTINUING ON TOWARD THE HUDSON BAY BY SATURDAY EVENING AS IT
DEEPENS TO NEAR 988 MB. PROGRESSION OF THE LOW WILL MAINTAIN
GENERALLY SOUTHERLY FLOW ACROSS THE WATERS, WITH GUSTS BETWEEN 25-30
KNOTS POSSIBLE OVER THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE LAKE SATURDAY AFTERNOON
AND NIGHT. CAN'T RULE OUT AN ISOLATED GUST APPROACHING GALE FORCE
DURING THIS TIME FRAME, WITH CONDITIONS NOT EXPECTED TO BE
WIDESPREAD ENOUGH FOR HEADLINES.
WINDS WILL TREND SOUTHWESTERLY WHILE STEADILY WEAKENING AHEAD OF AN
APPROACHING COLD FRONT ON SUNDAY. CURRENTLY EXPECTING THE FRONT TO
MOVE SOUTH ACROSS LAKE MICHIGAN LATE SUNDAY AFTERNOON INTO SUNDAY
EVENING, BRINGING A BREEZY NORTHEAST WIND SHIFT. GALES ARE NOT
ANTICIPATED DURING THE FRONTAL PASSAGE, WITH ANY ISOLATED RAIN
SHOWERS EXPECTED TO REMAIN OVER THE FAR NORTHERN PART OF THE LAKE.
BREEZY NORTHEAST WINDS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH MONDAY AS 1038 MB HIGH
PRESSURE SLIDES INTO ONTARIO FROM THE CANADIAN GREAT PLAINS. WINDS
WILL TREND EASTERLY AND EVENTUALLY SOUTHERLY TUESDAY INTO THE MIDDLE
OF NEXT WEEK AS THE AFOREMENTIONED HIGH SHIFTS INTO THE NORTHEASTERN
UNITED STATES. WIDESPREAD RAIN CHANCES RETURN WEDNESDAY INTO FRIDAY.
AREAS OF FOG WILL LINGER IN NEARSHORE ZONES THROUGH THE FIRST HALF
OF THE AFTERNOON, WITH A DENSE FOG ADVISORY IN EFFECT THROUGH 3 PM
CDT. A BRIEF PERIOD OF SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS IS POSSIBLE
IN NEARSHORE ZONES SATURDAY AFTERNOON FROM PORT WASHINGTON AND
POINTS NORTH. CONFIDENCE IS ALSO INCREASING FOR A MORE PROLONGED
PERIOD OF SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WAVES BEHIND A COLD FRONT MONDAY
AFTERNOON THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING. WILL ADDRESS THIS POTENTIAL WITH
POSSIBLE HEADLINES AS THIS PART OF THE PERIOD DRAWS CLOSER.
QUIGLEY
MKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
WI...NONE.
LM...DENSE FOG ADVISORY...LMZ261-LMZ362-LMZ364-LMZ366-LMZ563-LMZ565-
LMZ567-LMZ643-LMZ644-LMZ645-LMZ646-LMZ669-LMZ671-LMZ673-
LMZ675-LMZ868 UNTIL 3 PM FRIDAY.
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