130
FXUS63 KMKX 220501
AFDMKX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MILWAUKEE/SULLIVAN WI
1201 AM CDT TUE SEP 22 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- A PROLONGED PERIOD OF HIGH SWIM RISK CONDITIONS CONTINUE
THROUGH THE DAY WEDNESDAY FOR ALL BEACHES ALONG LAKE MICHIGAN.
- SCATTERED LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS/DRIZZLE ARE EXPECTED INTO EARLY
THIS MORNING.
- BELOW NORMAL TEMPS ARE EXPECTED FOR THE THROUGH MIDWEEK, WITH
GRADUALLY WARMING TEMPS INTO THE WEEKEND.
SHORT TERM
ISSUED 1200 AM CDT TUE SEP 22 2026
TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY:
WILL CONTINUE TO SEE PERIODIC LIGHT SHOWERS CHANCES THROUGH
EARLY MORNING AS THE MID-LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH GRADUALLY WORKS
ITS WAY ACROSS REGION. STILL LOOKING AT BETTER CHANCES FOR
SOUTHERN HALF OF THE CWA, BUT GIVEN HOW THE SHOWERS LAST EVENING
OVER PERFORMED, CANNOT RULE OUT SEEING MORE WIDESPREAD COVERAGE
OF LIGHT SHOWERS/DRIZZLE GIVEN THE EXTRA MOISTURE COMING OFF OF
LAKE MICHIGAN WITH THE PERSISTING EAST-NORTHEASTERLY FLOW.
OVERALL MAY SEE AN ADDITIONAL FEW HUNDREDTHS TO A TENTH OF AN
INCH. THEN THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH PUSHES EAST THROUGH THE DAY
DIMINISHING THESE LIGHT SHOWER CHANCES AS DRIER AIRMASS AND
GREATER INFLUENCE FROM THE BUILDING SURFACE HIGH OVER THE GREAT
LAKES SETTLES IN THROUGH MIDWEEK.
LOOKING AT DAILY HIGHS IN THE 60S AND NIGHTLY LOWS DIPPING INTO
THE MID 40S TO LOWER 50S. LESS CLOUD COVER OVERNIGHT WILL ALLOW
TEMPS TO FALL EVEN FURTHER AND COULD SEE POCKETS OF LOWS
NEARING 40F FOR INLAND CENTRAL WI LOCATIONS.
LASTLY WITH THE HIGH PRESSURE MEANDERING TO THE NORTHEAST,
PERSISTING ONSHORE FLOW WILL CONTINUES TO BRING WAVES OF 4-7 FT
THROUGH WEDNESDAY. THUS, HIGH SWIM RISK CONDITIONS CONTINUE FOR
ALL SOUTHERN WI BEACHES, BUT WILL BEGIN TO GRADUALLY FALL
WEDNESDAY EVENING.
WAGNER
LONG TERM
ISSUED 1200 AM CDT TUE SEP 22 2026
THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY:
HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO INFLUENCE THE PATTERN IN THE SECOND
HALF OF THE WEEK AS IT GRADUALLY SHIFTS EAST. EXPECT LIGHTER
WINDS THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK RESULTING IN IMPROVING SWIM
RISK CONDITIONS THURSDAY FOR ALL SOUTHERN WI BEACHES. OTHERWISE,
CONTINUE TO SEE THE TREND IN THE MEDIUM RANGE MODELS OF AN
UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE BUILDING ACROSS THE UPPER MIDWEST INTO THE
WEEKEND. THIS WILL NOT ONLY BRING A DRIER PATTERN, BUT ALSO
SHOULD BEGIN TO SEE TEMPS GRADUALLY WARM EACH DAY INTO THE
WEEKEND. THERE IS EVEN A POTENTIAL (20-40% PER LREF MEMBERS) TO
SEE HIGH TEMPS RISE BACK INTO THE 70S TOWARD THE END OF THE
WEEKEND INTO THE START OF NEXT WEEK.
WAGNER
AVIATION
ISSUED 1200 AM CDT TUE SEP 22 2026
THE EVENING ROUND OF SHOWERS CONTINUE TO SLOWLY DECAY AS IT
REACHES THE SOUTHEASTERN WI TERMINALS. HOWEVER, STILL LOOKING AT
ADDITIONAL ROUNDS OF LIGHT SHOWERS/DRIZZLE THROUGH THE EARLY
MORNING, ESPECIALLY TOWARD THE WI/IL BORDER WITH THE UPPER LEVEL
WAVE PASSAGE. MAINLY SEEING VFR CEILINGS, BUT COULD STILL SEE
PERIODS OF BRIEF VISIBILITY DROPS TO AROUND 4SM AND CEILINGS
FALLING BELOW 3KT AT TIMES. EXPECTING THE SHOWER ACTIVITY TO
PUSH EAST/DIMINISH BY MID MORNING AS DRIER CONDITIONS SETTLE IN
FOR THE AFTERNOON/EVENING. WITH THE HIGH PRESSURE SITTING AND
BUILDING TO THE NORTHEAST, EXPECT BREEZY EAST TO NORTHEASTERLY
WINDS TO CONTINUE TODAY AND BECOMING GUSTY THIS AFTERNOON BEFORE
WEAKENING BY THE EVENING.
WAGNER
MARINE
ISSUED 1200 AM CDT TUE SEP 22 2026
BUILDING HIGH PRESSURE MEANDERING OVER/JUST NORTH OF THE GREAT
LAKES WILL KEEPING BREEZY NORTHEAST TO EASTERLY FLOW THROUGH
MIDWEEK. THUS RESULTING IN ELEVATED WAVE HEIGHTS AND SMALL
CRAFT CONDITIONS THROUGH THE DAY WEDNESDAY. OTHERWISE, WINDS
GRADUALLY DIMINISH AND WAVES TO SUBSIDE FOR THE SECOND HALF OF
THE WEEK AS THE HIGH PRESSURE WEAKENS AND PUSHES FURTHER EAST.
WAGNER
MKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
WI...BEACH HAZARDS STATEMENT...WIZ052-WIZ060-WIZ066-WIZ071-WIZ072
UNTIL 7 PM WEDNESDAY.
LM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY...LMZ643-LMZ644-LMZ645-LMZ646 UNTIL 7 PM
WEDNESDAY.
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