628  
FXUS63 KMKX 222003  
AFDMKX  
 
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION  
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MILWAUKEE/SULLIVAN WI  
303 PM CDT MON SEP 22 2025  
   
KEY MESSAGES
 
 
- SCATTERED SHOWERS & STORM (~40-60% CHANCES) REDEVELOPMENT  
EXPECTED LATE THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH THIS EVENING. AN  
ISOLATED STRONG STORM WITH GUSTY WINDS & SMALL HAIL REMAINS  
POSSIBLE.  
 
- AREAS OF FOG POSSIBLE TONIGHT.  
 
- ADDITIONAL PERIODS OF SHOWERS & ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS  
(~15-35% CHANCES) CONTINUE DURING THE AFTERNOON PERIODS  
TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY PRIMARILY SOUTH OF US-151.  
 
- CONDITIONS DRYING OUT BY THE WEEKEND.  
 

 
   
SHORT TERM
 
 
ISSUED 305 PM CDT MON SEP 22 2025  
 
TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT:  
 
SYNOPSIS/MESOANALYSIS: EARLIER DAY SHOWERS & STORMS HAVE DISSIPATED  
ACROSS SOUTHERN WISCONSIN. AN OUTFLOW BOUNDARY AFFILIATED WITH THE  
DEPARTED PRECIP LINGERS OVER FAR SOUTHEASTERN WISCONSIN, BUT HAS  
OTHERWISE STEADILY WASHED OUT UNDER MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES IN SOUTH-  
CENTRAL AND SOUTHWESTERN WISCONSIN. SURFACE WINDS ARE THUS RETURNING  
TO A SUBTLE AREA OF LOW PRESSURE OVER SOUTHEASTERN MINNESOTA,  
ALLOWING FOR AIR MASS RECOVERY OVER SOUTH-CENTRAL AND SOUTHWESTERN  
PORTIONS OF THE AREA. A WAVY/EFFECTIVE WARM FRONT HAS BEEN ANALYZED  
TO THE EAST OF THE SURFACE LOW, WITH SURFACE OBSERVATIONS AND MODEL  
MOISTURE CONVERGENCE PLACING THE BOUNDARY ALONG AN APPROXIMATE  
ROCHESTER, MN - VIROQUA - DELLS AXIS. A SEVERE STORM HAS DEVELOPED  
ALONG THE BOUNDARY TO THE SOUTH OF LA CROSSE, WITH ADDITIONAL  
SCATTERED STORM REDEVELOPMENT ANTICIPATED ALONG/NORTH OF THE FRONT  
LATE THIS AFTERNOON & EVENING AS IT SLOWLY SAGS SOUTHEAST. THUS  
EXPECT A SECOND ROUND OF SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS ACROSS  
SOUTHERN WISCONSIN LATE THIS AFTERNOON & EVENING. A FEW STRONG TO  
SEVERE STORMS REMAIN POSSIBLE, WITH GUSTY WINDS AND SMALL HAIL BEING  
THE PRIMARY CONCERNS. AREAS OF FOG ARE POSSIBLE LATER TONIGHT, WITH  
SOME DENSE FOG POSSIBLE. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED  
THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE ONCE MORE ON TUESDAY AFTERNOON AS AN  
UPPER DISTURBANCE LINGERS OVER THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES, THOUGH  
SEVERE WEATHER IS NOT EXPECTED.  
 
REST OF THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH TONIGHT: ANTICIPATE RE-DEVELOPMENT OF  
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. COVERAGE OF REDEVELOPING STORMS  
REMAINS UNCERTAIN, WHICH HAS RESULTED IN PRECIP PROBABILITIES BEING  
CAPPED IN THE 40-60% RANGE IN THE AFTERNOON FORECAST UPDATE. UPWARD  
ADJUSTMENTS WILL LIKELY BECOME NECESSARY LATER THIS AFTERNOON/EARLY  
THIS EVENING AS RADAR TRENDS CLARIFY. SEVERAL HOURS OF RECOVERY  
BEHIND EARLY MORNING SHOWERS/STORMS HAS ALLOWED FOR MLCAPE TO BUILD  
BACK INTO THE 500-1500 J/KG RANGE REGIONALLY, WITH THE GREATEST  
VALUES EVIDENT WEST OF I-39 WHERE THE SUN HAS BEEN OUT FOR THE  
LONGEST. GIVEN THE RECOVERY, IN ADDITION TO AN APPROXIMATE 20-35 KTS  
OF DEEP LAYER SHEAR BEING ESTIMATED IN REGIONAL VWPS, AN ISOLATED  
STRONG TO SEVERE STORM THUS CAN'T BE ENTIRELY RULED OUT THROUGH  
EARLY EVENING. GUSTY WINDS WILL BE THE PRIMARY CONCERN, IN ADDITION  
TO SOME POTENTIAL FOR SMALL HAIL AND CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING.  
PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES IN THE 1.1-1.4" RANGE WILL SUPPORT THE  
POTENTIAL FOR HEAVY DOWNPOURS AS WELL, THOUGH RELATIVELY PROGRESSIVE  
STORM MOTIONS SHOULD PRECLUDE WIDESPREAD HYDRO CONCERNS. EXPECT  
ADDITIONAL RAINFALL TOTALS TO GENERALLY FALL IN THE 0.1-0.5" RANGE,  
WITH CORRIDORS OF LOCALLY HIGHER 1"+ TOTALS POSSIBLE WHERE HEAVIER  
STORMS TRACK. STAY WEATHER AWARE IF HEADING OUTDOORS THROUGH THIS  
EVENING, AND BE SURE TO MOVE INDOORS IF STORMS APPROACH YOUR AREA.  
AREAS OF FOG ARE POSSIBLE NEAR/AFTER MIDNIGHT, PARTICULARLY WHERE  
STORMS PUSH OUT EARLIER & WINDS FULLY DECOUPLE. DENSE FOG CAN'T BE  
RULED OUT, WITH TRENDS BEING MONITORED THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT  
PERIOD.  
 
QUIGLEY  
 

 
   
LONG TERM
 
 
ISSUED 305 PM CDT MON SEP 22 2025  
 
WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY:  
 
THE TROUGH MEANDERING ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES REGION WILL EVER SO  
SLOWLY BEGIN TO EXIT TO OUR EAST AS WE HEAD INTO MID TO LATE THIS  
WEEK. SIMILARLY TO WHAT WE SAW WHEN THIS CUT OFF LOW BEGAN MOVING IN  
WITH POPS BEING DELAYED RUN AFTER RUN, ITS POSSIBLE WE COULD SEE THE  
SAME THING ON THE BACK END. AS THIS MEANDERING LOW MOVES INTO  
EASTERN WI AND WESTERN MI, A SHORTWAVE WILL ADVANCE FROM THE ROCKY  
MOUNTAIN WEST AND ADVANCE EAST INTO THE GREAT LAKES AND OHIO RIVER  
VALLEY. THESE TWO TROUGHS WILL LIKELY MERGE AND FURTHER DELAY ANY  
MOVEMENT FURTHER EAST. THUS LOW CHANCE POPS(10-20%) DO LINGER INTO  
THURSDAY. NOW THIS UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL BE POSITIVELY TILT AND  
THEREFORE MUCH WEAKER OVERTIME. THE OTHER ITEM WORTH MENTIONING IS  
THERE REMAINS UNCERTAINTY WITH THE EXACT TRACK AND TIMING OF THE  
TROUGH AFTER THE MERGER WITH THE SHORTWAVE. FOR EXAMPLE THE NAM AND  
CAN ARE MUCH FURTHER EAST VERSUS THE GFS AND THE EURO IS SOMEWHERE  
IN BETWEEN. OVERALL, JUST KEEP AN EYE ON POPS THROUGH THE WEEK AS  
THERE WILL LIKELY BE ADDITIONAL CHANGES OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF  
DAYS.  
 
AS WE HEAD INTO THE WEEKEND, A RIDGE WILL BEGIN TO BUILD IN AND  
BRING A DRIER, MORE QUIET PATTERN. AS THIS RIDGE BUILDS IN, ONE MORE  
TROUGH WILL TRY TO DESCEND DOWN FROM CANADA SATURDAY, BUT GUIDANCE  
KEEPS THIS TROUGH FURTHER TO OUR EAST. THIS LARGELY KEEPS POPS OUT  
OF OUR AREA OF CONCERN, BUT WE COULD SEE SOME SLIGHTLY COOLER TEMPS  
AS AN ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT MAY MOVE DOWN THE STATE. IN THE EVENT  
THAT THIS OCCURS, WE WILL AGAIN REMAIN MOSTLY DRY. THERE IS A LACK  
OF MOISTURE AND UPWARD LIFT UNDER THE GROWING RIDGE TO OUR WEST.  
THIS RIDGE THEN LOOKS TO REMAIN IN PLACE INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.  
 
PATTERSON  
 

 
   
AVIATION
 
 
ISSUED 305 PM CDT MON SEP 22 2025  
 
EARLIER LINE OF -TSRA AND -SHRA HAS SHIFTED OVER LAKE MICHIGAN EARLY  
THIS AFTERNOON, RESULTING IN MOSTLY VFR CONDITIONS ACROSS SOUTHERN  
WISCONSIN. CURRENTLY ONGOING FROM LA CROSSE INTO SOUTHERN MINNESOTA,  
ADDITIONAL -SHRA AND -TSRA DEVELOPMENT IS ANTICIPATED ALONG AN  
APPROACHING FRONT FROM THE LATE AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING HOURS.  
EVOLUTION OF SAID DEVELOPMENT REMAINS HIGHLY UNCERTAIN DO TO  
LINGERING IMPACTS FROM EARLIER DAY ACTIVITY. HAVE THUS HANDLED LATER  
PRECIP POTENTIAL WITH PROB30 GROUPS AT ALL TERMINALS, AND WILL  
INSERT TEMPO/PREVAILING GROUPS AS RADAR TRENDS WARRANT LATER THIS  
AFTERNOON/EVENING. -SHRA/-TSRA POTENTIAL WILL CONCLUDE PRIOR TO  
DAYBREAK WEDNESDAY, WITH BR/FG AND MVFR CIGS POSSIBLE IN THEIR WAKE.  
CIGS COULD DROP LOWER THAN THE CURRENT FORECAST OF FL020, WITH  
FORECAST UNCERTAINTIES PRECLUDING LOWER MENTIONS AT THIS TIME. WILL  
CONTINUE TO WATCH OBSERVATIONAL AND FORECAST GUIDANCE TRENDS THROUGH  
THIS EVENING.  
 
QUIGLEY  
 

 
   
MARINE
 
 
ISSUED 305 PM CDT MON SEP 22 2025  
 
LIGHT SOUTHERLY WINDS, VARIABLE AT TIMES, WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THIS  
EVENING. A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL SLOWLY MOVE NORTH TO SOUTH ACROSS  
THE LAKE LATE TONIGHT INTO TUESDAY MORNING WITH A LIGHT WIND SHIFT  
TO NORTHERLY EXPECTED. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL  
OCCUR AT TIMES DURING THIS PERIOD. MOIST CONDITIONS, IN ADDITION TO  
LIGHT OVERALL WINDS IN THE VICINITY OF THE PASSING FRONT, WILL  
SUPPORT ADDITIONAL PERIODS OF FOG THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING,  
PARTICULARLY ACROSS THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE OPEN WATERS. THE DENSE  
FOG ADVISORY HAS BEEN EXTENDED UNTIL 4 AM CDT TUESDAY MORNING OVER  
THE NORTHERN THIRD OF LAKE MICHIGAN. AN ISOLATED STRONGER STORM WITH  
GUSTY WINDS IS POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING, PARTICULARLY  
ACROSS THE SOUTHERN HALF OF LAKE MICHIGAN.  
 
NORTHEAST WINDS WILL PICK UP TUESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH WEDNESDAY AS  
HIGH PRESSURE AROUND 1023 MB FORMS NEAR THE HUDSON BAY AND LOW  
PRESSURE AROUND 1009 MB DEVELOPS IN THE MIDDLE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY.  
THE LOW WILL SLOWLY PASS NEAR OR JUST SOUTHEAST OF SOUTHERN LAKE  
MICHIGAN WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY. WIND GUSTS ARE EXPECTED  
TO REMAIN BELOW GALE THRESHOLDS DURING THE LOW'S APPROACH AND  
PASSAGE, THOUGH TRENDS WILL BE MONITORED IN COMING FORECASTS.  
ADDITIONAL PERIODS OF SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE  
EXPECTED TUESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH THURSDAY, WITH SEVERE WEATHER NOT  
ANTICIPATED AT THIS TIME.  
 
EARLIER DAY DENSE FOG HAS IMPROVED IN NEARSHORE ZONES, THOUGH  
ADDITIONAL FOG IS POSSIBLE THIS EVENING THROUGH MID-DAY TUESDAY  
GIVEN MOIST LOW LEVEL CONDITIONS AND GENERALLY LIGHT SURFACE WINDS.  
ADDITIONAL DENSE FOG ADVISORIES ARE POSSIBLE, WITH VISIBILITY TRENDS  
BEING CLOSELY MONITORED THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING.  
ADDITIONAL SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE LATE THIS  
AFTERNOON THROUGH THIS EVENING AS A COLD FRONT SLOWLY WORKS THROUGH  
NEARSHORE ZONES. AN ISOLATED STRONGER STORM IS POSSIBLE. ADDITIONAL  
PERIODS OF SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE TUESDAY  
AFTERNOON THROUGH THURSDAY, WITH STRONG/SEVERE STORMS NOT  
ANTICIPATED AT THIS TIME.  
 
QUIGLEY  
 

 
   
MKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
 
 
WI...NONE.  
LM...DENSE FOG ADVISORY...LMZ261-LMZ362-LMZ364-LMZ366-LMZ563-LMZ565  
UNTIL 4 AM TUESDAY.  
 

 
 

 
 
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