404
FXUS63 KMKX 251203 AAA
AFDMKX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MILWAUKEE/SULLIVAN WI
703 AM CDT TUE AUG 25 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- HIGH SWIM RISK AT SHEBOYGAN COUNTY BEACHES THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING.
- SCATTERED SHOWERS & STORMS (~30-50% CHANCES) TONIGHT AREAWIDE
& ONCE MORE WEDNESDAY ACROSS THE EAST. CAN'T RULE OUT AN
ISOLATED STORM WITH GUSTY WINDS OR HAIL.
- RAIN-FREE & PLEASANT CONDITIONS LATE WEEK.
- TRENDING ACTIVE THIS WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK, WITH
MULTIPLE PERIODS OF SHOWERS AND STORMS FORECAST.
UPDATE
ISSUED 703 AM CDT TUE AUG 25 2026
IT WILL BE ANOTHER NICE DAY ACROSS SOUTHERN WI TODAY AND SIMILAR
TO THE PREVIOUS FEW DAYS EXCEPT FOR MORE CLOUD COVER. LOOK FOR
INCREASING SOUTHWEST WINDS THIS AFTERNOON AS A LOW PRESSURE
TROUGH APPROACHES.
WE HAVE A CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS TONIGHT WITH THE WARM
AIR ADVECTION AHEAD OF THE TROUGH AND ALSO A MID LEVEL
SHORTWAVE. THERE IS A BRIEF WINDOW OF TIME, MAINLY AFTER
MIDNIGHT, WHERE MUCAPE EXCEEDS 1500 J/KG AND BULK WIND SHEAR IS
AROUND 30 KT. SO IF ANY STORMS CAN GET GOING, A ONE OR TWO COULD
BE ON THE STRONGER SIDE, BUT WE ARE NOT EXPECTING ANY SEVERE
STORMS.
CRONCE
SHORT TERM
ISSUED 1135 PM CDT MON AUG 24 2026
TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY:
WITH HIGH PRESSURE SLOWLY MOVING EAST OUT OF WISCONSIN TONIGHT,
DRY WEATHER, CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS ARE EXPECTED. THERE IS
A SMALL CHANCE AGAIN FOR SOME FOG TO DEVELOP OVERNIGHT INTO
EARLY TUESDAY MORNING. THE POTENTIAL FOR FOG TO DEVELOP IS VERY
LIMITED IN SCOPE TO LOW LYING AREAS AND RIVER VALLEYS,
ESPECIALLY THE WISCONSIN RIVER VALLEYS. THOSE SAME AREAS THAT
GOT PATCHY FOG TO DEVELOP LAST NIGHT WILL BE THE ONES AT RISK
AGAIN TONIGHT. ANY FOG THAT DOES DEVELOP WILL DISSIPATE SHORTLY
AFTER SUNRISE.
THE INFLUENCE OF THE HIGH PRESSURE WILL LINGER A BIT THROUGH
TUESDAY AFTERNOON THEN A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IN SOUTHERN CANADA
WILL APPROACH THE NORTHERN GREAT LAKES REGION PASSING LAKE
SUPERIOR TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY. AS THIS LOW APPROACHES
THE PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL TIGHTEN A BIT WHICH WILL RESULT IN
SOME BREEZY SOUTH WINDS OVER LAKE MICHIGAN. THIS IS EXPECTED TO
BUILD WAVES ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE WESTERN NEARSHORE ZONES. THUS
A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY AND BEACH HAZARD STATEMENT IS IN EFFECT
FOR AREAS NORTH OF PORT WASHINGTON. STEER CLEAR OF THE WATER
FOR THOSE AREAS TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
HEADING INTO TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON, RAIN AND
STORM CHANCES WILL INCREASE. RAIN/STORM CHANCES ARE AROUND 30-50
% AT ITS PEAK EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING. RAIN CHANCES LOOK TO HOLD
OFF UNTIL AROUND MIDNIGHT OR THERE AFTER FOR ALL OF SOUTHERN
WISCONSIN. AVAILABLE MOISTURE WILL BE GOOD AND SHEAR IS
EXPECTED TO BE AROUND 20-30 KTS THROUGH WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON.
INSTABILITY WILL BE THE ONE INGREDIENT TO KEEP AN EYE ON THROUGH
THE OVERNIGHT HOURS FOR ANY STRONGER STORMS. THE NAM SOUNDINGS
SEEM TO BE THE MOST AGGRESSIVE WITH INSTABILITY, PARTICULARLY
MUCAPE, DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. HOWEVER, THERE IS SOME
PESSIMISM ON IF THIS IS BEING OVERDONE. NOT JUST BY THE NAM BUT
OTHER GUIDANCE AS WELL. LIGHTNING BY FAR WILL BE THE BIGGEST
HAZARD DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. AT THIS POINT, CAN'T RULE OUT
AN ISOLATED STRONGER STORM, BUT CONFIDENCE ON THAT IS VERY
LOW. IF A STORM DOES BECOME MORE ORGANIZED A BRIEF GUSTY WINDS
OR SMALL HAIL WOULD BE THE MAIN CONCERNS. FOR WHAT ITS WORTH IT
LOOKS FAR MORE LIKELY THAT ISOLATED TO SCATTERED WEAK THUNDERSTORMS
AND RAIN WILL BE ALL WE GET.
RAIN AND STORM CHANCES WILL LINGER THROUGH WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON
UNTIL THE COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE AREA. SOME GUIDANCE
SUGGESTS STORMS REDEVELOPING ALONG THE COLD FRONT FOR EASTERN
COUNTIES DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS. IN THE WAKE OF THE EARLY
MORNING ACTIVITY THIS WOULD BY FAR BE THE BETTER WINDOW FOR AN
ISOLATED STRONG TO SEVERE STORM. INSTABILITY WILL BE GOOD FROM
DIURNAL HEATING, FORCING FROM THE COLD FRONT AND LINGER PVA
ALOFT FROM THE EXITING LOW. THE GUIDANCE THAT IS THE MOST ROBUST
WITH THESE STORMS DOES HAVE THE COLD FRONT MOVING THROUGH A BIT
SLOWER THAN OTHERS SO THE TIMING OF THE FRONT WILL BE THE BIG
THING TO WATCH HERE. BUT IF STRONG STORMS DO DEVELOP THEN GUSTY
WINDS AND HAIL WILL BE THE PRIMARY CONCERNS.
PATTERSON
LONG TERM
ISSUED 1135 PM CDT MON AUG 24 2026
WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY:
AS THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVES EAST INTO QUEBEC, HIGH PRESSURE
IS EXPECTED TO MOVE DOWN FROM THE NORTHERN PLAINS AND CANADA
INTO THE GREAT LAKES REGION. HIGH PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO HAVE
INFLUENCE ACROSS WISCONSIN FROM ROUGHLY WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH
FRIDAY BRINGING DRY WEATHER, LIGHT WINDS AND PLEASANT NEAR
NORMAL TEMPERATURES.
HEADING INTO THE WEEKEND, ALOFT (AROUND 500 MB) ZONAL FLOW
LOOKS TO RETURN AS THE RIDGE FLATTENS OUT. THIS WILL PLACE THE
GREAT LAKES REGION BACK INTO A REGIME OF SHORTWAVE TROUGHS
MOVING THROUGH THE FLOW WITH MULTIPLE CHANCES FOR RAIN AND
STORMS. RAIN AND STORMS CHANCES ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE AS
EARLY AS SATURDAY NIGHT WITH ADDITIONAL PERSON OF STORMS
LOOKING TO CONTINUE THROUGH MONDAY. AHEAD OF THE FIRST SHORTWAVE
TROUGH LATE SATURDAY, WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO SHIFT TO THE SOUTH
TO SOUTHWEST WHICH WILL ALLOW FOR SOME DECENT WAA. THE MOISTURE
RETURN SHOULD BE ENOUGH TO HELP SUPPORT RAIN WITH ANY LIFT WE
GET ALOFT. GLOBAL MODELS ARE ALSO STILL SHOWING THE LLJ MOVING
INTO WISCONSIN WHICH COULD FURTHER SUPPORT STORM DEVELOPMENT AT
TIMES. AT THE END OF THE DAY, A LOT OF THE STORM CHANCES ARE
GOING TO BE CONTROLLED BY SOME MESOSCALE PARAMETERS THAT ARE
JUST A BIT TO EARLY HAVE SPECIFICS ON TIMING OR EXACT LOCATION
OF RAIN/STORMS. WHAT WE DO KNOW IS THAT, PWATS WILL BE GOOD
AROUND 1.5 TO 2 INCHES WHICH WILL PROMOTE HEAVY RAIN CHANCES.
INSTABILITY WILL BE GOOD AT TIMES, ESPECIALLY WITH THE PRESENCE
OF THE LLJ AT TIMES, AND SHEAR LOOKS TO BE DECENT AS WELL. SO
THERE IS SUPPORT AT THE BASE LEVEL FOR INGREDIENTS FOR STRONG TO
SEVERE STORMS. HOWEVER, DO ALL OF THESE INGREDIENTS LINE UP AT
THE APPROPRIATE TIMES. THAT WILL STILL NEED TO BE HASHED OUT.
FOR PLANNING PURPOSES, THIS IS NOT EXPECTED TO BE A WASHOUT ON
ANY GIVEN DAY. THERE WILL LIKELY BE MANY BREAKS OR LULLS BETWEEN
ROUNDS OF RAIN. SO KEEP UP TO ON THE FORECAST.
PATTERSON
AVIATION
ISSUED 703 AM CDT TUE AUG 25 2026
LIGHT SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON AND MID TO
HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS WILL BEGIN TO STREAM IN FROM THE WEST. SHOWER
CHANCES WILL INCREASE FROM WEST TO EAST TONIGHT, MAINLY AFTER
MIDNIGHT (06Z). LOWER VISIBILITIES TO AROUND 4-6 SM AND CEILINGS
AROUND 4 KFT WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH ANY ISOLATED STORMS. RAIN
AND STORM CHANCES ARE EXPECTED TO LINGER INTO LATE WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON, ESPECIALLY ACROSS EASTERN WISCONSIN. AS RAIN COMES TO
AN END, WINDS WILL SHIFT TO NORTHWESTERLY.
CRONCE
MARINE
ISSUED 703 AM CDT MON AUG 24 2026
HIGH PRESSURE OF 30.1 INCHES CENTERED OVER SOUTHERN LAKE MICHIGAN
WILL EXIT THE REGION AS LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM AROUND 29.7 INCHES
APPROACHES FROM THE NORTHERN PLAINS. AS THE LOW CROSSES LAKE
SUPERIOR EAST, AN ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS LAKE
MICHIGAN WEDNESDAY. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL ACCOMPANY THE
APPROACHING/PASSING SURFACE LOW AND COLD FRONT TONIGHT INTO
WEDNESDAY. AN ISOLATED STRONGER STORM WITH HAIL AND GUSTY WINDS
WILL BE POSSIBLE BUT CHANCES ARE LOW. INCREASING SOUTHERLY WINDS
TODAY WILL SHIFT TO THE NORTHWEST LATE WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING.
BREEZY NORTHWEST WINDS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT.
HIGH PRESSURE AROUND 30.1 INCHES WILL GRADUALLY BUILD IN FROM THE
NORTHERN PLAINS BEHIND THIS EXITING LOW FOR THURSDAY AND FRIDAY.
LIGHT NORTH TO NORTHEAST WINDS ARE EXPECTED.
CRONCE
MKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
WI...BEACH HAZARDS STATEMENT...WIZ052...4 PM TUESDAY TO 10 PM
TUESDAY.
LM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY...LMZ643...4 PM TUESDAY TO 10 PM
TUESDAY.
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