717
FXUS63 KMKX 021107
AFDMKX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MILWAUKEE/SULLIVAN WI
607 AM CDT SUN AUG 2 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- BREEZY NORTHEAST WINDS WILL LEAD TO HIGH WAVES AND DANGEROUS
CURRENTS AT LAKE MICHIGAN BEACHES INTO TONIGHT. A BEACH
HAZARDS STATEMENT IS IN EFFECT THROUGH 1 AM CDT MONDAY
MORNING FOR ALL LAKE MICHIGAN BEACHES. STAY OUT OF THE WATER!
- NEXT CHANCES FOR THUNDERSTORMS TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY.
A FEW PERIODS OF SEVERE STORMS ARE POSSIBLE, BUT TIMING AND
IMPACTS ARE NOT YET CLEAR.
UPDATE
ISSUED 607 AM CDT SUN AUG 2 2026
NLY WINDS, WEAK COLD ADVECTION AND STRATUS HAVE OVERSPREAD THE
REGION THIS MORNING. THE OCCLUDED LOW OVER THE OHIO VALLEY WILL
TRACK TO THE LOWER GREAT LAKES AND ERN OHIO VALLEY LATER TODAY,
WHILE A SFC RIDGE EXTENDS FROM JAMES BAY TO LAKE SUPERIOR TO THE
UPPER MS VALLEY. AS THE RIDGE BUILDS SOUTH, DRIER LOW LEVEL AIR
ON NLY WINDS WILL ARRIVE RESULTING IN A TRANSITION TO PARTLY
CLOUDY SKIES FOR THE AFTERNOON. HIGH TEMPS WILL RANGE FROM THE
LOWER 70S AT THE LAKE TO NEAR 80 WELL INLAND.
HIGH PRESSURE AND FAVORABLE RADIATIONAL COOLING CONDITIONS TNT
WILL THEN LIKELY LEAD TO FOG IN THE WI AND BARABOO RIVER
VALLEYS. THE HIGH REMAINS IN PLACE FOR MON WITH HIGHS RANGING
FROM THE MIDDLE 70S AT THE LAKE TO LOWER 80S INLAND.
GEHRING
SHORT TERM
ISSUED 1113 PM CDT SAT AUG 1 2026
TODAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT:
HIGH SWIM RISK REMAINS FOR LAKE MICHIGAN BEACHES ACROSS ALL OF
SOUTHERN WISCONSIN THROUGH TODAY, FINALLY IMPROVING LATE TONIGHT.
A BEACH HAZARDS STATEMENT IS IN EFFECT THROUGH 1 AM CDT. STAY OUT
OF THE WATER AND AWAY FROM DANGEROUS AREAS LIKE PIERS AND
BREAKWALLS!
AN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM OR TWO LINGERS ACROSS SOUTHWESTERN
WISCONSIN, EXITING WITHIN THE NEXT FEW HOURS. EXPECTING
NORTHEASTERLY WINDS TO CONTINUE THROUGHOUT THE OVERNIGHT HOURS,
WITH GUSTS UP TO 25 MPH IN LAKE MICHIGAN COUNTIES. LOW CLOUDS
AND POTENTIALLY SOME PATCHY FOG EXPECTED EARLY THIS MORNING,
WITH FOG MAINLY IN SOUTHWESTERN WISCONSIN. CLOUDS WILL LIFT
AFTER SUNRISE, SCATTERING OUT MIDDAY ONWARD. EXPECT HIGHS IN THE
LOW 70S NEAR LAKE MICHIGAN AND THE UPPER 70S INLAND.
NORTHEASTERLY WINDS WILL CONTINUE, WITH GUSTS AROUND 15 MPH
INLAND AND AROUND 25 MPH ALONG LAKE MICHIGAN.
WINDS WILL GRADUALLY DIMINISH OVERNIGHT TONIGHT, WITH LIGHT AND
VARIABLE WINDS BY EARLY MONDAY MORNING. EXPECT OVERNIGHT LOWS IN
THE 50S. PATCHY FOG IS POSSIBLE ONCE AGAIN OVERNIGHT.
MONDAY, LIGHT WINDS AND PATCHY DIURNAL CUMULUS EXPECTED UNDER HIGH
PRESSURE. HIGHS IN THE UPPER 70S TO LOW 80S. HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS
IN PLACE OVERNIGHT, WITH LOWS IN THE 50S AND LIGHT AND VARIABLE
WINDS.
MH
LONG TERM
ISSUED 1113 PM CDT SAT AUG 1 2026
TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY:
LOW PRESSURE PROGRESSING THROUGH NORTHERN ONTARIO AND LOW
PRESSURE DEVELOPING IN THE LEE OF THE COLORADO ROCKIES ON
TUESDAY WILL ALLOW FOR BROAD FRONTOGENESIS TO DEVELOP OVER THE
UPPER MIDWEST. EXPECTING THE RESULTANT COLD FRONT TO WORK ITS
WAY SOUTHWARD THROUGH SOUTHERN WISCONSIN TUESDAY NIGHT INTO
WEDNESDAY MORNING (60% CHANCES FOR THUNDERSTORMS, CAPE ~1500
J/KG). 0-6 KM BULK SHEAR REMAINS MARGINAL (UNDER 35 KT) THROUGH
WEDNESDAY MORNING, BEFORE WESTERLY BULK SHEAR BUILDS TO NEAR 50
KT WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. DEPENDING ON HOW LONG OVERNIGHT
CONVECTION LINGERS, SEVERE MAY BE INHIBITED WEDNESDAY DUE TO
LACK OF INSTABILITY. HOWEVER, INCREASING SHEAR AND A FRONT IN
THE REGION MAY ALLOW FOR SOME SEVERE POTENTIAL WEDNESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY NIGHT. KEPT POPS FROM THE NBM DUE TO THIS UNCERTAINTY,
WITH 30-60% CHANCES THROUGHOUT SOUTHERN WISCONSIN INTO
WEDNESDAY NIGHT. LOW PRESSURE EJECTS INTO THE OHIO VALLEY
WEDNESDAY NIGHT.
AS LOW PRESSURE WEAKENS AND EXITS TO THE EAST ON THURSDAY,
PRECIPITATION CHANCES EXIT AS WELL. HIGH PRESSURE BRIEFLY BUILDS
BACK IN THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY, BUT WITH SOUTHERN WISCONSIN
REMAINING ON THE NORTHERN EDGES OF THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IN A
MORE ZONAL PATTERN, MAY SEE ADDITIONAL ROUNDS OF THUNDERSTORMS
THROUGH THE WEEKEND. AS RIDGING BUILDS ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS,
TEMPERATURES WILL ALSO CLIMB BACK INTO THE MID-80S THROUGH THE
WEEKEND.
MH
AVIATION
ISSUED 607 AM CDT SUN AUG 2 2026
CIGS BELOW 1 KFT THIS MORNING WILL TRANSITION TO MVFR CIGS BY
LATE MORNING THEN BECOME SCT-BKN035 DURING THE EARLY AFTERNOON.
AREAS OF FOG IS THEN EXPECTED TO DEVELOP EARLY MON AM IN THE
WI AND BARABOO RIVER VALLEYS AS WELL AS OTHER LOW LYING AREAS
WEST OF MADISON.
GEHRING
MARINE
ISSUED 607 AM CDT SUN AUG 2 2026
BREEZY NORTH WINDS AND HIGH WAVES ARE EXPECTED TODAY AND THIS
EVENING OVER CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN LAKE MICHIGAN. THIS WILL OCCUR
AS LOW PRESSURE AROUND 29.7 INCHES STRETCHING FROM CENTRAL INDIANA
INTO WESTERN OHIO WILL SLOWLY MOVE INTO THE LOWER GREAT LAKES AND
EASTERN OHIO BY EARLY THIS EVENING, WHILE A RIDGE OF HIGH
PRESSURE AROUND 30.0 INCHES STRETCHES FROM JAMES BAY TO LAKE
SUPERIOR TO THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY. WINDS WILL
GRADUALLY DIMINISH LATE TONIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE AROUND 30.0 INCHES
THEN BUILDS ACROSS LAKE MICHIGAN ON MONDAY AND SLOWLY MOVES TOWARD
THE LOWER GREAT LAKES MONDAY NIGHT. WINDS REMAIN LIGHT AND
VARIABLE THROUGH THIS TIME. NEXT CHANCES FOR THUNDERSTORMS RETURN
TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT AS A WEAK FRONT MOVES
SOUTHWARD THROUGH THE REGION.
A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONTINUES TODAY AND TONIGHT FROM
SHEBOYGAN TO WINTHROP HARBOR DUE TO BRISK NORTH WINDS AND HIGH
WAVES.
MG
MKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
WI...BEACH HAZARDS STATEMENT...WIZ052-WIZ060-WIZ066-WIZ071-WIZ072
UNTIL 1 AM MONDAY.
LM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY...LMZ643-LMZ644-LMZ645-LMZ646 UNTIL 1 AM
MONDAY.
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