815
FXUS63 KMKX 291008
AFDMKX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MILWAUKEE/SULLIVAN WI
508 AM CDT WED JUL 29 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- WARM AND HUMID CONDITIONS RETURN THURSDAY. SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE THURSDAY EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY,
BUT ARE MOST LIKELY FRIDAY EVENING.
UPDATE
ISSUED 510 AM CDT WED JUL 29 2026
FORECAST IS ON TRACK THIS MORNING. HIGH PRESSURE IS CENTERED
OVER THE EASTERN HALF OF THE STATE, LEADING TO CLEAR SKIES AND
LIGHT/CALM SURFACE WINDS. GIVEN THE SKY-WIND CONDITIONS,
CONTINUE TO MONITOR FOR POCKETS OF FOG DEVELOPMENT OVER THE NEXT
1-2 HOURS. VERY SHALLOW MOISTURE DEPTH IN THE BOUNDARY LAYER HAS
& WILL CONTINUE TO IMPEDE MORE WIDESPREAD DEVELOPMENT FROM
TAKING PLACE, SO EXPECTING ANY FOG THAT CAN MATERIALIZE TO
REMAIN CONFINED TO AREAS NEAR AGRICULTURAL FIELDS, LAKES, RIVER
VALLEYS, OR OTHER LOW-LYING SPOTS. HEADLINES WON'T BE NEEDED TO
COVER ANY OF THIS POTENTIAL. SLOW DOWN & USE LOW BEAM HEADLIGHTS
IF ENCOUNTERING LOCALIZED POCKETS OF FOG EARLY THIS MORNING.
MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES PREVAIL THIS AFTERNOON. EXPECTING SOME LIGHT
CONCENTRATIONS OF WILDFIRE SMOKE FROM THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST,
WHICH COULD GIVE SUNSHINE A MORE FILTERED APPEARANCE FROM TIME
TO TIME. PER LATEST FORECASTS FROM THE WISCONSIN DNR,
SUBSTANTIAL AIR QUALITY IMPACTS ARE NOT ANTICIPATED AT THIS
TIME.
QUIGLEY
SHORT TERM
ISSUED 1122 PM CDT TUE JUL 28 2026
CURRENT OVERNIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY:
QUIET TONIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE REGION. SOME FOG
CAN'T BE RULED OUT IN AND AROUND THE WISCONSIN RIVER VALLEY.
HIGH PRESSURE THEN LINGERS WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY KEEPING DEW
POINTS MORE MANAGEABLE IN THE UPPER 50S TO MID 60S. DAYTIME
HIGHS ON WEDNESDAY WILL BE IN THE LOW TO MID 80S, WITH WARMER
HIGHS ON THURSDAY IN THE UPPER 80S AS SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS
RETURN AND MODEST WAA BOOSTS TEMPS.
WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO TAPER OVER THE LAKE EARLY THIS MORNING,
AND DANGEROUS WAVES ARE EXPECTED TO WANE BEFORE DAWN. A BEACH
HAZARD STATEMENT REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 4AM.
CMILLER
LONG TERM
ISSUED 1128 PM CDT TUE JUL 28 2026
THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY:
THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY, LOW TO MID LEVEL WARM ADVECTION IS
EXPECTED AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING ELONGATED TROUGH (GFS AND NAM)
OR CLOSED SFC WAVE (ECMWF) OVER THE WESTERN CORN BELT. SHOWERS
AND STORMS ARE EXPECTED ON THE LEADING EDGE OF THIS WARM
ADVECTION.
TONIGHT, DETERMINISTIC RUNS OF THE ECMWF AND GFS SHOW A BIT
BETTER AGREEMENT IN THE TRACK OF THE TROUGH AND STORMS FOR THE
DAY ON FRIDAY AND INTO FRIDAY NIGHT. NBM POPS HAVE RESPONDED IN
KIND, AND HAVE INCREASED SINCE LAST NIGHT, FAVORING 60 TO 80%
POPS FRIDAY INTO EARLY SATURDAY. HOWEVER ONE THING TO NOTE IS
THE PRESENCE OF DRY AIR AT THE SURFACE AHEAD OF THE WAVE,
LINGERING FROM THE PRECEDING HIGH PRESSURE AND DRY SURFACE
CONDITIONS. THIS DRY AIR SHOWS UP WELL IN THE RRFS. DRYNESS MAY
LINGER AT THE SURFACE PRECEDING THE RAIN AND CAUSE THE
ATMOSPHERE TO TAKE A WHILE TO SATURATE. WHILE THIS MAY BE A HIGH
PROBABILITY OF PRECIPITATION EVENT ONCE RAINS GETS STARTED, IT
MAY BE LOW QPF, AND HARDLY A DROUGHT BUSTER.
A SFC RIDGE WILL THEN BUILD IN BEHIND THE EXITING TROUGH,
PROMOTING DRY CONDITIONS FOR SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY.
TEMPERATURES FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY WILL REMAIN SEASONABLE WITH
HIGHS IN THE UPPER 70S TO LOW 80S. BY THE END OF THE EXTENDED
PERIOD, IT LOOKS LIKE ANOTHER RIDGE FROM THE PLAINS LEANS EAST
INTO WISCONSIN, BRINGING WARMER TEMPERATURES IN THE MID 80S ON
TUESDAY.
CMILLER
AVIATION
ISSUED 510 AM CDT WED JUL 29 2026
VFR FLIGHT CATEGORIES PREVAIL THIS MORNING WITH HIGH PRESSURE
CENTERED OVER WISCONSIN. WITH LIGHT WINDS AND CLEAR SKIES,
CONTINUE TO MONITOR FOR ISOLATED POCKETS OF FG THROUGH SUNRISE,
WITH THE EXPECTATION FOR VIS REDUCTIONS TO REMAIN CONFINED TO
THE WISCONSIN RIVER VALLEY AND KETTLE MORAINE. HAVE THUS KEPT
ANY MENTIONS OF FG OUT OF THE FORECAST IN THE 09 AND 12Z
UPDATES. LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS CONTINUE THROUGH THE PERIOD
WITH HIGH PRESSURE LINGERING IN THE VICINITY. WILL BE MONITORING
FOR LIGHT AREAS OF SMOKE THIS AFTERNOON, THOUGH FORECAST
CONFIDENCE REMAINS TOO LOW FOR ANY TEMPO/PREVAILING MENTIONS AT
THIS TIME. AMENDMENTS WILL BE MADE SHOULD TRENDS CALL FOR
THROUGH TODAY.
QUIGLEY
MARINE
ISSUED 1108 PM CDT TUE JUL 28 2026
WINDS WILL DIMINISH TONIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS INTO THE GREAT LAKES REGION FROM ONTARIO. LOCALLY, SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORY WINDS HAVE LARGELY DIMINISHED, AND LINGERING HIGH
WAVES WILL EASE OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS. LIGHT SOUTHWEST WIND
WILL DEVELOP THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY AS THE HIGH PRESSURE MOVES
EAST TOWARD THE MID ATLANTIC STATES.
CMILLER
MKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
WI...NONE.
LM...NONE.
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