700
FXUS63 KMKX 100015 AAA
AFDMKX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MILWAUKEE/SULLIVAN WI
715 PM CDT FRI OCT 9 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE WELL ABOVE NORMAL THIS WEEKEND.
- NEXT CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPS MONDAY
INTO MONDAY NIGHT.
- MORE ACTIVE PATTERN WITH MULTIPLE PERIODS OF RAIN AND
THUNDERSTORMS WEDNESDAY INTO FRIDAY.
- MUCH COLDER AIRMASS MOVES IN BY NEXT WEEKEND.
UPDATE
ISSUED 715 PM CDT FRI OCT 9 2026
THE SHOWERS ASSOCIATED WITH THE FOCUSED LOW LEVEL WARM AIR
ADVECTION AND THE LOW LEVEL JET NOSE WILL CONTINUE TO PUSH OFF
TO THE EAST INTO THIS EVENING. THE AREA OF MIDDLE TO HIGH CLOUDS
WILL LINGER FOR A TIME THIS EVENING, BEFORE GRADUALLY PUSHING
NORTHEAST OF THE AREA LATER TONIGHT. SOUTHEAST WINDS WILL
GRADUALLY SHIFT SOUTHWARD LATER TONIGHT, AS THE WARM FRONT
MOVES NORTHWARD. LOWS SHOULD DROP INTO THE MIDDLE 50S OVER MOST
OF THE AREA.
GUSTY SOUTH WINDS ARE EXPECTED SATURDAY ACROSS THE AREA, WITHIN
A TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT. CLOUDS ASSOCIATED WITH THE REMNANTS
OF ISAIAS SHOULD PUSH NORTHWARD INTO THE AREA BY LATER IN THE
DAY. THIS MAY HOLD BACK HIGH TEMPERATURES A BIT, DEPENDING ON
HOW LONG IT TAKES FOR THEM TO MOVE INTO THE AREA. VERY WARM
HIGHS IN THE UPPER 70S TO LOWER 80S ARE EXPECTED, WITH 925 MB
TEMPERATURES OF 20 DEGREES CELSIUS OR MORE. WINDS MAY ALSO TURN
MORE SOUTH SOUTHEAST NEAR LAKE MICHIGAN IN THE AFTERNOON, WHICH
MAY HOLD DOWN HIGHS THERE AS WELL. THE RECORD HIGHS ARE 84
DEGREES AT MILWAUKEE AND MADISON FOR SATURDAY.
WOOD
SHORT TERM
ISSUED 300 PM CDT FRI OCT 9 2026
TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT:
A WAVE OF WAA DRIVEN RAINFALL WILL GRADUALLY PROGRESS EASTWARD
THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE AFTERNOON, EXITING INTO LAKE
MICHIGAN THIS EVENING. A FEW EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE
ON AND OFF. OTHERWISE, EXPECT GRADUALLY INCREASING
SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS AND HIGHS IN THE UPPER 60S. WINDS REMAIN
SOUTHEASTERLY OVERNIGHT, WITH LOWS IN THE MID TO UPPER 60S.
WINDS SHIFT TO SOUTHERLY INTO SATURDAY MORNING, WITH GUSTS OF
20 TO 25 MPH DEVELOPING, AS LOW PRESSURE DEEPENS IN THE
NORTHERN PLAINS. THE REMNANTS OF ISAIAS WILL PROGRESS INTO THE
OHIO VALLEY SATURDAY NIGHT, BRINGING INCREASING CLOUD COVER TO
SOUTHERN WISCONSIN. HIGHS IN THE LOWER 80S ARE EXPECTED
SATURDAY, WITH LOWS IN THE UPPER 50S.
MH
LONG TERM
ISSUED 300 PM CDT FRI OCT 9 2026
SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY:
CLEARING SKIES FROM WEST TO EAST INTO SUNDAY, AS REMNANTS OF
ISAIAS MOVE EASTWARD INTO THE NORTHEAST, WITH HIGHS IN THE
UPPER 70S TO LOWER 80S EXPECTED (HIGHEST TEMPERATURES IN THE
WEST WHERE SKIES CLEAR EARLIEST). SOUTHERLY WINDS CONTINUE, BUT
LIGHTER AS THE LOW TO THE WEST WEAKENS AND LIFTS NORTHWARD.
OVERNIGHT, EXPECT LOWS IN THE UPPER 50S TO LOWER 60S.
PATTERN BEGINS TO BREAK DOWN MONDAY THROUGH THE WEEK, WITH
BROAD HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE SOUTHEAST AND MULTIPLE SHORTWAVES
PROPAGATING OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS INTO THE NORTHERN GREAT
LAKES. ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS ARE POSSIBLE
MONDAY AFTERNOON AND NIGHT (20 TO 40 PERCENT) AS A STRONGER
SHORTWAVE INTERACTS WITH A BROAD WARM FRONTOGENESIS REGION.
HIGHS IN THE UPPER 70S TO LOWER 80S AND LOWS IN THE 50S ARE
EXPECTED. A BRIEF PERIOD OF DRY CONDITIONS EXPECTED TUESDAY
INTO TUESDAY NIGHT, AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN BEHIND THE
PASSING SHORTWAVE/COLD FRONT COMBO, WITH NORTHERLY WINDS.
EXPECT HIGHS IN THE 60S, LOWS IN THE 40S.
BROAD LOW PRESSURE PERSISTS OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS WEDNESDAY
THROUGH FRIDAY, WITH ITS WARM FRONT EXPANDING EASTWARD ACROSS
THE SOUTHERN GREAT LAKES REGION INTO WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON.
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS AND INCREASING SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS
ARE EXPECTED. LOW PRESSURE EJECTS INTO THE UPPER GREAT LAKES
THURSDAY INTO THURSDAY NIGHT, BRINGING WIDESPREAD RAIN/STORM
POTENTIAL. LOW PRESSURE EXITS TO THE NORTHEAST INTO FRIDAY, WITH
A COLD FRONT SWEEPING THROUGH THE REGION AND BRINGING GUSTY
NORTHWESTERLY WINDS FRIDAY INTO FRIDAY NIGHT. LOWS IN THE 30S
ARE POSSIBLE FRIDAY NIGHT, AND ISOLATED POCKETS OF FROST MAY
DEVELOP.
MH
AVIATION
ISSUED 715 PM CDT FRI OCT 9 2026
THE SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE TO PUSH OFF TO THE EAST INTO THIS
EVENING. THE AREA OF MIDDLE TO HIGH CLOUDS WILL LINGER FOR A
TIME THIS EVENING, BEFORE GRADUALLY PUSHING NORTHEAST OF THE
AREA LATER TONIGHT.
SOUTHEAST WINDS WILL GRADUALLY SHIFT SOUTHWARD LATER TONIGHT,
AS THE WARM FRONT MOVES NORTHWARD. LOW LEVEL WIND SHEAR
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED LATER THIS EVENING INTO THE OVERNIGHT
HOURS ACROSS THE AREA, WITH SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST WINDS AROUND 40
KNOTS AT 2000 FEET AGL.
GUSTY SOUTH WINDS WITH VERY WARM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
SATURDAY ACROSS THE AREA. MIDDLE TO HIGH CLOUDS ASSOCIATED WITH
THE REMNANTS OF ISAIAS SHOULD PUSH NORTHWARD INTO THE AREA BY
LATER IN THE DAY. WINDS MAY ALSO TURN MORE SOUTH SOUTHEAST FOR
TERMINALS NEAR LAKE MICHIGAN IN THE AFTERNOON.
WOOD
MARINE
ISSUED 300 PM CDT FRI OCT 9 2026
HIGH PRESSURE AROUND 30.2 INCHES WILL CONTINUE TO PUSH EAST
THROUGH THIS EVENING. WILL SEE WINDS BECOME MORE SOUTHEASTERLY
AND THEN SHIFT MORE SOUTHERLY OVERNIGHT, AS THE HIGH PRESSURE
SHIFTS FURTHER EAST WHILE LOW PRESSURE AROUND 29.2 INCHES
DEVELOPS OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS.
EXPECT WINDS TO INCREASE FOR SATURDAY, AS LAKE MICHIGAN SITS IN
BETWEEN THE TWO SYSTEMS AND HAS THE POTENTIAL TO PRODUCE
SOUTHERLY GUSTS UP TO 30 KNOTS THROUGH EARLY SUNDAY MORNING.
WHILE CANNOT RULE OUT A FEW, BRIEF GALE FORCE GUSTS ACROSS THE
NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE LAKE SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING, WE
ARE NOT ANTICIPATING ANY GALE HEADLINES AT THIS TIME THROUGH
THE WEEKEND. A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT LATE TONIGHT
THROUGH EARLY SUNDAY MORNING FOR NEARSHORE ZONES NORTH OF
MILWAUKEE.
THE MAIN LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WEAKENS TO AROUND 29.6 INCHES, AS
IT LIFTS FROM ONTARIO INTO THE JAMES BAY REGION. THIS WILL DRAG
A COLD FRONT ACROSS THE UPPER GREAT LAKES LATER SUNDAY INTO
MONDAY, EASING SOUTHERLY WINDS BEFORE SHIFTING MORE WESTERLY
THEN NORTHERLY LATER MONDAY INTO TUESDAY. COULD SEE ANOTHER
ROUND OF GUSTY SUB-GALE WIND GUSTS OVERNIGHT INTO TUESDAY ACROSS
THE REGION BEHIND THE COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE. WILL GRADUALLY EASE
THROUGH MID-WEEK, AS ANOTHER HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM AROUND 30.2
INCHES BUILDS ACROSS THE UPPER GREAT LAKES REGION.
WAGNER
MKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
WI...NONE.
LM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY...LMZ643...1 AM SATURDAY TO 7 AM SUNDAY.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY...LMZ644...1 AM SATURDAY TO 1 AM SUNDAY.
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