054
FXUS63 KMKX 281546
AFDMKX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MILWAUKEE/SULLIVAN WI
1046 AM CDT MON SEP 28 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- TEMPERATURES WILL BE A FEW DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL THROUGH
WEDNESDAY, COOLING DOWN LATE WEEK INTO THE WEEKEND
- RAIN CHANCES AND A FEW STORMS RETURN TUESDAY NIGHT INTO
THURSDAY
SHORT TERM
ISSUED 1046 AM CDT MON SEP 28 2026
TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY:
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVERHEAD THIS MORNING WILL
GRADUALLY SLIDE EASTWARD TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY. MEANWHILE, AN
UPPER RIDGE CENTERED JUST TO THE WEST WILL MOVE THROUGH LATER
TODAY INTO TONIGHT AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING TROUGH. SOUTHERLY
WINDS WILL DEVELOP TONIGHT INTO TUESDAY ON THE BACK SIDE OF THE
SURFACE HIGH, KEEPING THE MILDER TEMPERATURES AROUND AT LEAST
ANOTHER DAY. WITH MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES EXPECTED, COULD SEE SOME
PATCHY FOG LATER TONIGHT INTO EARLY TUESDAY. MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES
EARLY TOMORROW SHOULD GIVE WAY TO INCREASING MID AND HIGH LEVEL
CLOUDS FROM THE WEST BY AFTERNOON. THERE SHOULD BE AT LEAST
FILTERED SUNSHINE INTO THE AFTERNOON FOR HIGHS INTO THE 70S
AGAIN.
DDV
LONG TERM
ISSUED 1046 AM CDT MON SEP 28 2026
TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY:
LATEST MODELS SEEM TO BE COMING INTO BETTER AGREEMENT WITH THE
MID-WEEK SYSTEM. THERE IS EXPECTED TO BE A PROLONGED PERIOD OF
HIGHER MOISTURE ACROSS THE REGION, WHICH WILL MOVE IN TUESDAY
NIGHT AND EXIT DURING THE DAY THURSDAY. PRECIPITABLE WATER
VALUES ARE LIKELY TO PEAK IN THE 1.5 TO 2.0 INCH RANGE DURING
THIS PERIOD, WHICH WILL BE NEAR OR ABOVE MAX FOR THIS TIME OF
THE YEAR PER GRB AND DVN SOUNDING CLIMATOLOGY. WHILE OVERALL
INSTABILITY AND WIND PROFILES ARE NOT SUPPORTIVE OF A SEVERE
WEATHER THREAT MID-WEEK, THE HIGH PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES AND
MARGINAL INSTABILITY COULD RESULT IN LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL.
THE MAIN AREA OF UNCERTAINTY MID-WEEK IS WITH THE TIMING AND
PLACEMENT OF THE STRONGER FORCING, WITH GENERALLY PERSISTENT
WARM AIR AND MOISTURE ADVECTION EXPECTED. A FEW MODEL SOLUTIONS
PLACE THE HIGHER PRECIP TOTALS MAINLY TO THE NORTHWEST OF THE
FORECAST AREA TUE NIGHT THROUGH WED NIGHT, SHIFTING THE HIGHER
TOTALS TO THE SOUTH BY THURSDAY AFTERNOON AS THE TROUGH AND COLD
FRONT DROP THROUGH THE AREA. THE ECMWF SOLUTION REMAINS THE
MAIN HOLDOUT ON BRINGING PRECIP INTO SOUTHERN WISCONSIN EARLIER
AND THEN KEEPING THE BETTER FORCING ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA
FOR A LONGER PERIOD OF TIME. OVERALL, RAIN CHANCES WILL BE HIGH
FOR MID-WEEK GIVEN THE HIGH AMOUNT OF MOISTURE, BUT TIMING AND
TOTALS REMAIN UNCERTAIN AT THIS TIME. TEMPERATURES SHOULD DROP
BACK TO AROUND NORMAL FOR WED/THU GIVEN THE CLOUD AND RAIN
CHANCES.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FRIDAY BEHIND THE MID-WEEK SYSTEM,
BRINGING DRY WEATHER AND TEMPERATURES JUST A TOUCH BELOW NORMAL
FOR FRIDAY AND SATURDAY. A SHORTWAVE AND COLD FRONT ARE THEN
EXPECTED TO SLIDE THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT, WITH STRONG HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDING INTO THE REGION SUNDAY AND MONDAY. IT'S
CURRENTLY LOOKING DRY WITH THE FRONTAL PASSAGE THIS WEEKEND,
WITH EVEN COOLER CONDITIONS LIKELY EARLY NEXT WEEK.
DDV
AVIATION
ISSUED 1046 AM CDT MON SEP 28 2026
MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS ARE EXPECTED
TODAY. SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL THEN DEVELOP TONIGHT INTO TUESDAY
ON THE BACK SIDE OF DEPARTING HIGH PRESSURE. WITH LIMITED CLOUD
COVER CONTINUING, COULD SEE SOME PATCHY FOG LATER TONIGHT INTO
EARLY TUESDAY. MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES EARLY TOMORROW SHOULD GIVE WAY
TO INCREASING MID AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS FROM THE WEST BY
AFTERNOON.
DDV
MARINE
ISSUED 1046 AM CDT MON SEP 28 2026
HIGH PRESSURE OF 30.1 INCHES WILL REMAIN OVERHEAD TODAY,
KEEPING THE WEATHER DRY AND WINDS LIGHT OUT OF THE NORTH.
BREEZY SOUTHERLY WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO BUILD TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND
CONTINUE INTO THURSDAY, AS HIGH PRESSURE DEPARTS TO THE EAST
AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING TROUGH. A FEW WIND GUSTS TO 30 KNOTS
ARE POSSIBLE WEDNESDAY ALONG WITH BUILDING WAVES, PARTICULARLY
ACROSS CENTRAL AND NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE LAKE.
DDV
MKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
WI...NONE.
LM...NONE.
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