250
FXUS63 KMKX 292103
AFDMKX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MILWAUKEE/SULLIVAN WI
403 PM CDT WED MAR 29 2023
SHORT TERM
(ISSUED 400 PM CDT WED MAR 29 2023)
TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT:
HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER SOUTHERN MN WILL CONTINUE TO
GRADUALLY WORK ITS WAY EAST-SOUTHEASTWARD THROUGH THE EVENING AND
MOVE OVERHEAD OVERNIGHT. EXPECT WINDS TO BE LIGHT AND VARIABLE
UNDER MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES. TONIGHT WILL BE COLD AS TEMPS FALL INTO
THE MID TEENS TO LOW 20S THANKS TO AMPLE RADIATIVE COOLING AND
CLEAR CONDITIONS. THE HIGH WILL PUSH EAST LATER THURSDAY MORNING
AND WINDS WILL TURN EASTERLY AND EVENTUALLY MORE SOUTHERLY. AREA
WITH THE SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL SEE WARMER TEMPS BEGIN TO MOVE
NORTHWARD INTO THE REGION WITH TEMPS CLIMBING INTO THE UPPER 40S
TO EVEN THE LOW 50S ESPECIALLY ACROSS SOUTHWESTERN WI. MEANWHILE
AREAS EAST AND CLOSER TO THE LAKE ARE LIKELY TO SEE MORE EASTERLY
WINDS, WHICH BRINGS US BACK TO "COOLER BY THE LAKE" SEASON AND
MOST AREAS WILL ONLY TOP OFF IN THE LOWER 40S.
MEANWHILE OUR NEXT WEATHER MAKER BEGINS TO TAKE SHAPE ALONG THE
FRONT RANGE OF THE CO ROCKIES THROUGH THE DAY THURSDAY. AS THE
SURFACE LOW DEVELOPS, EXPECT THE WING OF LOW-LEVEL WAA AHEAD OF THE
SYSTEM TO LIFT INTO OUR NECK OF THE WOODS THROUGH THE DAY. WITH THIS
PAIRED AN INCOMING LLJ, THERE WILL BE INCREASE PRECIP CHANCES
ASSOCIATED WITH IT LATER THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY MORNING. HOWEVER,
ONSET TIMING OF THE PRECIP, WHICH WILL LIKELY FALL MOSTLY AS RAIN
WITH SOME MIX ACROSS CENTRAL WI, STILL REMAINS IN QUESTION AS IT
WILL BE BATTLING DRY AIR AHEAD OF IT.
WAGNER
LONG TERM
(ISSUED 400 PM CDT WED MAR 29 2023)
FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY:
FRIDAY IS LOOKING TO MAIN SHOW AS THE SURFACE LOW DEEPENS AS IT
PUSHES ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS BEFORE LIFTING INTO THE WESTERN
GREAT LAKES REGION. AS THE LOW WORKS IS WAY INTO THE REGION, EXPECT
PRECIP CHANCES TO LINGER THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING WITH A BRIEF WINDOW
FOR DRIER CONDITIONS BEFORE RAMPING BACK UP THROUGH THE AFTERNOON
AND EVENING. ADDITIONALLY EXPECT TEMPS TO INCREASE AS WELL. LOOKING
AT HIGH TEMPS TO CREEP INTO THE 50S AND EVEN CRACK THE MID 60S.
WITH THE FRIDAY SYSTEM, THERE CONTINUES TO BE A POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE
WEATHER. SYNOPTICALLY, THE SET UP IS LOOKING PRETTY IMPRESSIVE AS A
NEGATIVELY TILTED TROUGH SWINGS ACROSS THE UPPER MIDWEST WITH THE
LEFT EXIT REGION OF THE UPPER-LEVEL JET SETTING UP OVER SOUTHERN WI.
THE UPPER-LEVEL JET WILL ALIGN WITH A BROAD AREA OF DCVA AS THE MID-
LEVEL LOW WORKS ITS WAY ACROSS IA TO SOUTHERN WI/NORTHERN IL ALONG
WITH LOW-LEVEL WAA AND THE NOSE OF THE LLJ CREEPING INTO
SOUTHWESTERN WI DURING THE SAME TIME. SO DYNAMICALLY SPEAKING, THE
SET UP CONTINUES TO LOOK FAVORABLE FOR ACTIVE WEATHER. LOOKING AT
THE SURFACE LOW IS PROGGED TO TRACK ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS IN
IA AND ACROSS SOUTHERN WI THROUGH FRIDAY EVENING AS WELL. IF THE
WARM FRONT LIFTS AS FAR NORTH AS THE CURRENT MODELS SUGGEST, THEN
AS THE LOW PUSHES EAST THE COLD FRONT WILL OCCLUDE AND ALIGN WITH
DEEP LAYER SHEAR AROUND 40-60 KNOTS, STEEP MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATE
APPROACHING 8 C/KM, AND MUCAPE RANGING BETWEEN 500 TO AROUND 1000
J/KG. IF ALL THESE INGREDIENTS CONTINUE TO ALIGN FRIDAY, THEN
THERE IS A BETTER POTENTIAL TO SEE SEVERE WEATHER FRIDAY
AFTERNOON/EVENING.
HOWEVER, THIS IS SPRING TIME IN THE MIDWEST AND THE SETUP FOR SEVERE
IS CONDITIONAL. STILL HAS SOME CONCERN WITH A FEW FACTORS THAT MAY
LIMIT SOUTHERN WI POTENTIAL. THE FIRST AND BIGGEST CONCERN IS A TALE
AS OLD AS TIME; THE BATTLE BETWEEN LAKE MICHIGAN COLD AIR AND THE
WARM FRONT. HISTORICALLY DURING THE EARLY SPRING SEASON THE LAKE HA
S A GREAT DEAL OF IMPACT ON THE WARM FRONT UP IN OUR AREA AND HOW
FAR NORTH IT PROGRESSES. GLOBAL MODELS TEND TO NOT HANDLE THIS
ALL THAT WELL AND CAN SEE HINTS OF THE WARM FRONT PROGRESSION
BEING LIMITED IN THE 12Z CMC MODEL. SO THERE IS STILL SOME
UNCERTAINTY FROM THAT ASPECT WHICH WOULD LIMIT SEVERE MORE TO
ELEVATED CONVECTION THAN SURFACE BASED. ON TOP THE WARM FRONT
POSITION, THERE IS SOME MODELS HINTING AT LIMITED INSTABILITY AS
WELL. THE 06Z GEFS AND EPS ONLY HAVE MEDIUM TO HIGH PROBABILITIES
OF CAPE EXCEEDING 500 J/KG IN THE SOUTHWESTERN PART OF OUR CWA.
OVERALL, STILL SOME QUESTIONS FOR THE SEVERE POTENTIAL TO BE
ANSWERED FOR FRIDAY. REGARDLESS OF THE LIMITING FACTORS PAIRED WITH
THE FAVORABLE SYNOPTIC SETUP, THE AREAS THAT HAVE THE GREATEST
CHANCES CONTINUE TO BE OUR SOUTHWESTERN PORTIONS OF THE CWA.
SEVERE CHANCES WILL DIMINISH THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT AS THE LOW PUSHES
EAST. HOWEVER COLD AIR AND PRECIP CHANCES LINGER INTO SATURDAY ON
THE BACKSIDE OF THE LOW. COULD SEE SOME CONVECTIVE SNOW SHOWERS WITH
THIS ACTIVITY IN ADDITION TO STRONG NORTHWESTERLY WINDS THROUGH THE
DAY. SUNDAY IS LOOKING A BIT QUIETER WITH HIGH PRESSURE BRIEFLY
BUILDING IN BEFORE ANOTHER ACTIVE PATTERN TAKES SHAPE HEADING INTO
EARLY NEXT WEEK.
WAGNER
AVIATION
(ISSUED 400 PM CDT WED MAR 29 2023)
VFR CONDITIONS WITH LIGHTER WINDS WILL PREVAIL AS HIGH PRESSURE
WORKS ITS WAY ACROSS WI THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT. THEN AS THE HIGH
PUSHES EAST THURSDAY, WINDS WILL TURN EASTERLY THEN EVENTUALLY MORE
SOUTHERLY LATER THURSDAY NIGHT. CLEARER CONDITIONS WILL GRADUALLY
GIVE WAY TO MID TO HIGH CLOUDS AS RAIN CHANCE GRADUALLY PICK UP
THROUGH THURSDAY EVENING.
WAGNER
MARINE
(ISSUED 400 PM CDT WED MAR 29 2023)
GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS LINGER INTO THE EARLY EVENING, BUT WILL
WEAKEN AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS ACROSS WI THIS EVENING AND MOVE
OVER THE LAKE OVERNIGHT. THIS WILL RESULT IN LIGHTER WESTERLY TO
VARIABLE WINDS HEADING INTO THURSDAY. THEN AS A LOW DEVELOPS
ALONG THE FRONT RANGE OF THE CO ROCKIES, EXPECT SOUTHERLY WINDS TO
DEVELOP ACROSS LAKE MICHIGAN THROUGH THE DAY AND GRADUALLY PICK
UP INTO FRIDAY. AS THE LOW LIFTS NORTHEASTWARD IT LOOKS TO DEEPEN
AS IT PUSH INTO THE REGION AND ACROSS THE CENTER PART OF THE LAKE
OVERNIGHT FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY. EXPECT SOUTHERLY WINDS TO
PERSISTS AS THE LOW WORKS ITS WAY THROUGH AND WILL BRING A
POTENTIAL FOR THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP LATER FRIDAY, ESPECIALLY
ACROSS THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE LAKE. MAY ALSO SEE SOME POCKETS OF
NEAR GALE FORCES GUSTS DURING THIS TIME. OTHERWISE, THE LOW WILL
PUSH EAST BY SATURDAY MORNING AND STRONG NORTH- NORTHWESTERLY
WINDS ARE PROGGED TO DEVELOP ON THE BACKSIDE. THERE WILL BE A
PRETTY HIGH POTENTIAL TO SEE GALES FOR SATURDAY DURING THIS TIME
AND CANNOT RULE OUT A POTENTIAL TO EVEN SEE STORM FORCE GUSTS.
HOWEVER, THESE CONDITIONS WILL BE DEPENDENT ON THE LOW TRACK AND
STRENGTH AND MAY CHANGE OVER THE NEXT DAY OR TWO. BEHIND THIS
SYSTEM, HIGH PRESSURE BRIEFLY BUILDS ACROSS THE REGION FOR THE
LATER HALF OF THE WEEKEND AND LOOKS TO BRING LIGHTER WINDS ACROSS
LAKE MICHIGAN.
WAGNER
MKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
WI...NONE.
LM...NONE.
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