111
FXUS63 KMKX 261005
AFDMKX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MILWAUKEE/SULLIVAN WI
505 AM CDT FRI JUN 26 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- PATCHY FOG THIS MORNING, ESPECIALLY IN LOW-LYING AREAS.
- HOT AND HUMID CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED NEXT WEEK, POSSIBLY
HITTING HEAT ADVISORY CRITERIA AT TIMES MONDAY THROUGH
THURSDAY.
- THERE WILL BE A CHANCE FOR STORMS SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY
AND AGAIN LATER TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY.
UPDATE
ISSUED 506 AM CDT FRI JUN 26 2026
PATCHY GROUND FOG HAS BEEN REPORTED ACROSS THE AREA THIS
MORNING, ESPECIALLY IN GREEN LAKE TO SHEBOYGAN COUNTY WHERE
CLEAR SKIES HAVE ALLOWED TEMPERATURES TO FALL TO DEWPOINTS, AND
IN FAR SOUTHERN WISCONSIN WHERE RISING DEWPOINTS HAVE MET
TEMPERATURES. FOG HAS GENERALLY REMAINED IN THE 2-4 MILE
VISIBILITY RANGE, WITH A FEW POCKETS OF VISIBILITY AROUND 1/2
MILE. FOG WILL BURN OFF WITHIN THE NEXT HOUR. OTHERWISE,
EASTERLY WINDS TODAY WILL KEEP A TEMPERATURE GRADIENT FROM THE
UPPER 60S TO LOW 70S IN SOUTHEASTERN WISCONSIN TO THE MID TO
UPPER 70S IN SOUTHWESTERN WISCONSIN.
MH
SHORT TERM
ISSUED 1224 AM CDT FRI JUN 26 2026
OVERNIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY:
PATCHY FOG IS POSSIBLE OVERNIGHT, PRIMARILY TOWARD LAKE
MICHIGAN. LIGHT TO MODEST EASTERLY WINDS WILL PERSIST THROUGH
SATURDAY. THIS WILL KEEP LAKESHORE AREAS COOLER THAN INLAND, AND
ALSO BELOW NORMAL FOR A COUPLE MORE DAYS. LOOK FOR PLENTY OF
CLOUD COVER ACROSS SOUTHERN WI TODAY AS LOW PRESSURE (AND
ASSOCIATED SHOWERS/STORMS) TRACKS ACROSS IL AND IN. THE PRECIP
WILL REMAIN SOUTH OF THE WI/IL BORDER.
THERE IS STILL A CHANCE (30-45%) OF SHOWERS AND MAYBE A RUMBLE
OF THUNDER SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY MORNING AS A WEAK "WING"
OF MID LEVEL WARM AIR ADVECTION LIFTS THROUGH WI. THE CHANCE FOR
THUNDER IS LOW BECAUSE OF THE STRONGLY CAPPED ENVIRONMENT AND
WEAK MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES. THIS IS OUR FIRST PUSH OF WARMER
AND MORE HUMID AIR INTO THE REGION, BUT LAKESHORE MAX TEMPS
(MID- UPPER 70S) WILL REMAIN COOLER THAN INLAND (MID 80S) DUE TO
STEADY SOUTHEAST WINDS.
CRONCE
LONG TERM
ISSUED 1224 AM CDT FRI JUN 26 2026
SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY:
THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL SETTLE OVER THE MID MISSISSIPPI RIVER
VALLEY BY MONDAY MORNING. SOME OVERNIGHT SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE
(20% CHANCE) IN EAST CENTRAL WI. VERY WARM AND HUMID AIR WILL
WORK INTO SOUTHERN WI ON MONDAY AND STICK AROUND THROUGH THE
HOLIDAY WEEKEND. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE IN THE LOWER TO MID
90S EACH DAY, AND DEWPOINTS WILL LIKELY REACH 70 (NOT SURE HOW
FAR ABOVE 70, AS MODELS SEEM TO BE OVERDOING THIS ELEMENT). THE
NAEFS (ENSEMBLE) IS SHOWING THAT THIS WARM OF TEMPS IS IN THE
99TH PERCENTILE COMPARED TO CLIMATE, HAS A ONE-DAY-
EVERY-10-YEARS RETURN INTERVAL, AND IS AROUND 2 STANDARD
DEVIATIONS HIGHER THAN NORMAL.
THIS IS GOING TO BE A PROLONGED PERIOD OF HOT AND HUMID
CONDITIONS THAT WILL QUICKLY BECOME DANGEROUS FOR THOSE WITHOUT
AIR CONDITIONING, ESPECIALLY SINCE OVERNIGHT TEMPS WILL REMAIN
IN THE 70S (UPPER 70S AT TIMES). HEAT ADVISORIES WILL LIKELY BE
NEEDED.
EXPECT CHANCES FOR THUNDERSTORMS AT TIMES DURING THIS HEAT WAVE,
ALTHOUGH THE ABILITY TO PREDICT EXACTLY WHEN AND WHERE STORMS
COULD DEVELOP WILL BE LIMITED TO THE DAY BEFORE. THIS IS BECAUSE
STORMS WILL LIKELY DEVELOP IN THE NORTHERN PLAINS, MN AND
NORTHWEST WI AREAS AND THEN POTENTIALLY ROLL INTO CENTRAL OR
SOUTHERN WI OVERNIGHT INTO THE NEXT MORNING. ANY OF THESE STORM
COMPLEXES COULD LIMIT OUR DAILY HIGH TEMPERATURES AND OFFER A
TEMPORARY REPRIEVE FROM THE EXTREME HEAT, BUT NOT THE HUMIDITY.
CRONCE
AVIATION
ISSUED 506 AM CDT FRI JUN 26 2026
PATCHY FOG HAS DEVELOPED ACROSS FAR SOUTHERN AND CENTRAL
WISCONSIN THIS MORNING, WITH ANY REMAINING FOG EXPECTED TO BURN
OFF WITHIN THE NEXT HOUR. LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS WILL BECOME
STEADY AND EASTERLY BY MIDDAY. VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
THROUGHOUT TODAY, WITH A SCATTERED LAYER OF CLOUDS IN THE
5000-7000 FT RANGE AND AN OVERCAST LAYER AROUND 25,000 FT.
CLOUDS WILL SCATTER OUT OVERNIGHT TONIGHT, WITH WINDS BECOMING
LIGHT AND NORTHEASTERLY.
MH
MARINE
ISSUED 1224 AM CDT FRI JUN 26 2026
HIGH PRESSURE OVER ONTARIO AND THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES WILL
DOMINATE TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY WITH LIGHT NORTH TO NORTHEAST
WINDS. SUNDAY, LOW PRESSURE WILL DEEPEN OVER THE CENTRAL
PLAINS, BRINGING BREEZY SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS TO THE LAKE. WINDS
THEN TURN SOUTHERLY AND STRENGTHEN MONDAY (NOT QUITE GALES) AS
LOW PRESSURE EXITS INTO THE CANADIAN PRAIRIES. BREEZY SOUTHERLY
WINDS WILL PERSIST FOR MOST OF NEXT WEEK. A SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED.
CRONCE
MKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
WI...NONE.
LM...NONE.
VISIT US AT WEATHER.GOV/MILWAUKEE
FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK, X, AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSMILWAUKEE
WWW.X.COM/NWSMILWAUKEE
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSMILWAUKEE
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.
Main Text Page