362
FXUS63 KMKX 060924
AFDMKX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MILWAUKEE/SULLIVAN WI
324 AM CST SAT DEC 6 2025
KEY MESSAGES
- WIDESPREAD ACCUMULATING SNOWFALL THIS EVENING INTO EARLY
SUNDAY. SNOW TOTALS GENERALLY OF 1"-4" NORTH OF I-94 AND 3" TO
6" SOUTH. A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT FOR PORTIONS
OF SOUTHERN WISCONSIN.
- BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL PERSIST MUCH OF NEXT WEEK.
ADDITIONAL ROUNDS OF LIGHT SNOW AT TIMES NEXT WEEK, POSSIBLY
MIXED WITH RAIN LATER TUE INTO EARLY WED.
SHORT TERM
ISSUED 324 AM CST SAT DEC 6 2025
TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY:
CLOUDS WILL LIKELY DECREASE IN COVERAGE THIS MORNING AS HIGH
PRESSURE BRIEFLY MOVES THROUGH THE AREA. COLDER TEMPS ARE
EXPECTED TODAY BEHIND THE SHORTWAVE THAT MOVED THROUGH LAST
EVENING, WITH WELL BELOW NORMAL HIGHS IN THE LOW TO MID 20S.
CLOUDS WILL THEN QUICKLY RETURN TO THE AREA LATER TODAY INTO
THIS EVENING AS A SHORTWAVE APPROACHES FROM THE WEST. THIS
SYSTEM WILL BRING WIDESPREAD ACCUMULATING SNOWFALL TO SOUTHERN
WISCONSIN DURING THE EVENING AND OVERNIGHT HOURS, WINDING DOWN
WEST TO EAST EARLY SUN MORNING. WHILE THERE REMAINS SOME
DIFFERENCES AMONG MODEL SOLUTIONS AS TO THE AMPLITUDE OF THE
SHORTWAVE AND STRENGTH/PLACEMENT OF THE SURFACE LOW, THE OVERALL
TREND HAS BEEN TOWARDS A FARTHER NORTH AND SNOWIER SOLUTION FOR
SOUTHERN WISCONSIN.
THE BULK OF LARGE SCALE MODELS AND MESOSCALE MODELS SHOW AMPLE
FORCING VIA WARM AIR ADVECTION AND FRONTOGENESIS, ESPECIALLY
ACROSS THE SOUTHERN FORECAST AREA. THE DETERMINISTIC GFS
CONTINUES TO REMAIN ON THE LOWER END WITH PRECIP AMOUNTS BUT IS
NOTABLY LOWER THAN THE GEFS ENSEMBLE MEAN. WHILE THE DENDRITE
GROWTH ZONE ISN'T VERY DEEP PER LATEST MODEL SOUNDINGS, THE DGZ
IS EXPECTED TO BE IN THE HEART OF THE BETTER FORCING. BETWEEN
THIS AND THE COLDER NATURE OF THE SYSTEM, EXPECTING SNOW TO
LIQUID RATIOS OF 14-17 TO 1. WITH THE PRECIP TOTALS TRENDING
UPWARD, THESE RATIOS GIVE FORECAST SNOW TOTALS OF GENERALLY OF
1"-4" NORTH OF I-94 AND 3" TO 6" SOUTH.
NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION TO SEE SOME LAKE ENHANCEMENT COME
ONSHORE LATER TONIGHT INTO EARLY SUNDAY, PARTICULARLY FROM
MILWAUKEE SOUTHWARD. STILL SOME UNCERTAINTY WITH THE MEAN FLOW
FROM THE SURFACE TO 850 MB THOUGH, SO CONFIDENCE ISN'T HIGH IN
LAKE ENHANCEMENT. STILL OPTED TO PUT A SLIGHT BUMP UP IN TOTALS
IN THE FAR SOUTHEAST TO REFLECT THIS POTENTIAL.
GIVEN THE HIGHER EXPECTED SNOWFALL TOTALS AND INCREASED OVERALL
CONFIDENCE IN THIS SNOW EVENT, A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY HAS
BEEN ISSUED FOR ROUGHLY THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA.
COULD SEE THE NEED FOR THE ADVISORY TO BE EXPANDED NORTHWARD A
BIT IF THIS NORTHWARD MODEL TREND CONTINUES.
CLOUDS WILL DECREASE SUNDAY MORNING INTO EARLY AFTERNOON BEHIND
THE DEPARTING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM. DESPITE THE SUNSHINE, HIGHS
WILL BE CHILLY, ONLY TOPPING OUT IN THE UPPER TEENS TO LOW 20S
MOST PLACES. BREEZY NORTHERLY WINDS WILL KEEP WIND CHILLS IN THE
SINGLE DIGITS ABOVE ZERO THROUGH THE DAY. COULD SEE LITTLE LAKE
EFFECT SNOW IN THE FAR SOUTHEAST FORECAST AREA SUNDAY NIGHT AS
WINDS VEER FROM NORTHERLY TO EASTERLY. NOT EXPECTING MUCH MORE
THAN A DUSTING GIVEN THAT THE WIND DIRECTION WILL BE CHANGING
THROUGH THIS PERIOD, LIMITING A PROLONGED FETCH FROM ANY
PARTICULAR DIRECTION.
DDV
LONG TERM
ISSUED 324 AM CST SAT DEC 6 2025
MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY:
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING DRY AND CONTINUED WELL BELOW NORMAL
TEMPS TO THE AREA MONDAY. A QUICK MOVING SHORTWAVE MAY BRING A
DUSTING OF SNOW TO SOUTHERN WISCONSIN MONDAY NIGHT AS THE HIGH
PUSHES EASTWARD. ANOTHER LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO
MOVE THROUGH THE AREA LATER TUESDAY INTO EARLY WEDNESDAY. MODELS
CONTINUE TO SUGGEST A MORE NORTHERN TRACK WITH THIS SYSTEM,
WHICH COULD LEAD TO A LITTLE RAIN/SNOW MIX, PARTICULARLY IN THE
SOUTHERN FORECAST AREA. A COLDER AIRMASS IS THEN EXPECTED TO
QUICKLY RETURN TO THE AREA BEHIND THE LOW WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO
THURSDAY, WITH MORE SNOW CHANCES RETURNING ON THURSDAY, POSSIBLY
LINGERING INTO FRIDAY.
DDV
AVIATION
ISSUED 324 AM CST SAT DEC 6 2025
A MIX OF MVFR CEILINGS EARLY THIS MORNING WILL LIKELY GIVE WAY
TO MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS DURING THE DAY TODAY. UPSTREAM CLOUDS
HAVE BEEN DECREASING IN COVERAGE AND DAYTIME MIXING WILL HELP TO
RAISE THE BASES OF ANY REMAINING CLOUDS. LIGHT WEST TO
NORTHWEST WINDS TODAY WILL BECOME LIGHT AND VARIABLE THIS
EVENING AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING TROUGH. THIS TROUGH WILL THEN
BRING WIDESPREAD ACCUMULATING SNOWFALL TO SOUTHERN WISCONSIN
THIS EVENING INTO EARLY SUNDAY.
SNOW IS EXPECTED TO MOVE IN WEST OF MADISON BETWEEN 01Z AND 03Z
THIS EVENING, SPREADING EASTWARD AND REACHING LAKESHORE AREAS
BETWEEN 04Z AND 06Z. SNOWFALL RATES OF GENERALLY 0.25" TO 0.5"
AN HOUR ARE LIKELY DURING THE MAIN ACCUMULATING PERIOD, THOUGH
THERE COULD BE SOME BANDING THAT PUSHES RATES BRIEFLY TOWARDS 1"
AN HOUR. THE BEST CHANCE FOR THESE HIGHER RATES IS CURRENTLY
EXPECTED TO BE ALONG AND SOUTH OF I-94. LATEST FORECAST SNOW
TOTALS RANGE FROM ROUGHLY 1-4" NORTH OF I-94 AND 3-6" SOUTH, THE
HIGHEST TOTALS SOUTHWEST AND LOWEST NORTHEAST. THE SNOW IS
EXPECTED TO WIND DOWN WEST TO EAST FROM 10Z TO 14Z EARLY
TOMORROW MORNING.
THE SNOW WILL LEAN TOWARDS THE DRIER VARIETY, WITH SNOW TO
LIQUID RATIOS OF 14-17 TO 1. CEILINGS WILL DROP TO 1 KFT OR
LOWER DURING THE MAIN PERIOD OF ACCUMULATING SNOWFALL, WITH
VISIBILITES LARGELY IN THE 1 TO 3 MILE RANGE, OCCASIONALLY DOWN
TO 1/4-1/2 MILE IN ANY HEAVIER SNOW BANDS.
DDV
MARINE
ISSUED 324 AM CST SAT DEC 6 2025
BREEZY WESTERLY WINDS THIS MORNING WILL GRADUALLY EASE WHILE
VEERING TO THE NORTHWEST TODAY, AS HIGH PRESSURE OF 30.0 INCHES
BUILDS IN FROM THE WEST. BREEZY NORTHERLY WINDS ARE THEN
EXPECTED LATER TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY AS LOW PRESSURE PASSES BY TO
THE SOUTH AND STRONG HIGH PRESSURE OF 30.5 INCHES BEGINS TO
BUILD IN FROM THE WEST. MORE ROUNDS OF GUSTY WINDS ARE EXPECTED
AT TIMES THROUGH AT LEAST THE FIRST HALF OF NEXT WEEK, AS
MULTIPLE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEMS MOVE THROUGH THE REGION.
DDV
MKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
WI...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY...WIZ056-WIZ062-WIZ063-WIZ067-WIZ068-
WIZ069...8 PM SATURDAY TO 6 AM SUNDAY.
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY...WIZ064-WIZ065-WIZ066-WIZ070-WIZ071-
WIZ072...10 PM SATURDAY TO 8 AM SUNDAY.
LM...NONE.
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