491
FXUS63 KMKX 201657
AFDMKX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MILWAUKEE/SULLIVAN WI
1157 AM CDT MON JUL 20 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- THE WISCONSIN DNR HAS EXTENDED THE AIR QUALITY ADVISORY FOR
EASTERN WISCONSIN THAT REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 6 PM CDT
TODAY. ANY LINGERING WILDFIRE SMOKE WILL LEAD TO UNHEALTHY AIR
QUALITY FOR SENSITIVE INDIVIDUALS.
- SEVERE STORMS ARE POSSIBLE LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO THIS
EVENING. ALL SEVERE HAZARDS ARE POSSIBLE, WITH AN ENHANCED
(LEVEL 3 OUT OF 5) THREAT LEVEL. THERE IS INCREASING
LIKELIHOOD FOR SEVERE STORMS WITH UNCERTAINTY ON EXACT
PLACEMENT.
- THERE IS A HIGH SWIM RISK FOR AREA BEACHES IN OZAUKEE AND
SHEBOYGAN COUNTY BEACHES THIS AFTERNOON. LIFE THREATENING
WAVES AND CURRENTS ARE EXPECTED IN HIGH SWIM RISK AREAS. STAY
OUT OF THE WATER, AND AWAY FROM DANGEROUS AREAS LIKE PIERS,
BREAKWALLS AND RIVER OUTLETS.
SHORT TERM
ISSUED 1200 PM CDT MON JUL 20 2026
LATE AFTERNOON THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT:
THE CURRENT EXPECTATION IS FOR THE WAA INDUCED CONVECTION TO PUSH
OUT OVER THE NEXT HOUR OR SO ALLOWING FOR A PERIOD OF SUN TO
BRING RECOVERY OF THE ENVIRONMENT TO THE AREA, WITH THE RECOVERY
NORTHWEST OF THE CWA ALREADY ONGOING. THIS IMPORTANT DUE TO
WEST CENTRAL WI LIKELY BEING THE THE GENERAL INITIATION LOCATION
FOR STORMS LATER THIS AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING. A FEW MODELS
POINT TOWARD SOME MORE ISOLATED STORM INITIATION MID TO LATE
AFTERNOON BUT MODELS HAVE TRENDED DOWN ON THIS LIKELY DUE TO THE
IMPACT OF THE MORNING CONVECTION AND THE LIKELIHOOD THAT THERE
WOULD NOT BE ENOUGH RECOVERY TIME BEHIND THE WAA RELATED
CONVECTION THIS MORNING. HOWEVER, MODELS HAVE TRENDED IN THE
OTHER DIRECTION FOR THE CONVECTION POTENTIAL INTO THE EVENING.
WHILE PERHAPS UNDERSELLING THE MORNING CONVECTION A TAD, MODELS
HAVE GENERALLY CAUGHT ON TO THE TRUE TREND IN THE MORNING
ACTIVITY AND THUS WE HAVE BEEN ABLE TO TRUST THEIR OUTPUT A BIT
MORE. THE CONDITIONS SET UP FOR THE FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THE
LOW PUSHING THROUGH THE NORTHERN GREAT LAKES TO BE THE INITIATOR
OF CONVECTION FROM EASTERN IA UP TO THE UP OF MI. IN ADDITION,
A STRENGTHENING LLJ INTO THE EVENING WILL INCREASE LOW LEVEL AND
DEEP LAYER SHEAR WITH MODELS INDICATING AN ENLARGED HODOGRAPH
WITH 200-300 M2/S2 0-3KM SRH AND 50-70KTS OF DEEP LAYER SHEAR.
WHILE UNCERTAINTY EXISTS IN THE AFTERNOON RECOVERY, IT LOOKS
LIKELY FOR NE IA, SE MN AND WEST CENTRAL WI, WHERE INITIATION
IS EXPECTED TO OCCUR, TO HAVE HAD MUCH OF THE DAY TO RECOVER
WITH AREAS FURTHER SOUTHEAST LIKELY HAVING REDUCED INSTABILITY
BUT PLENTY OF INSTABILITY NONETHELESS. IN THE AREA OF
INITIATION, DEWPOINT CLIMBING TO MID 70S WITH UPWARDS OF 5000
J/KG OF SBCAPE IS EXPECTED (4000 J/KG MLCAPE) WITH DECREASING
INSTABILITY FURTHER SOUTHEAST BUT STILL PLENTY.
ALL HAZARDS WITH THIS EVENT ARE POSSIBLE INCLUDING STRONG
TORNADOES, LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS. THE WAY MODELS PORTRAY
THIS EVENT UNFOLDING IS SUGGESTIVE OF WIDESPREAD INITIATION BUT
WHEN THAT OCCURS USUALLY THERE ARE JUST A FEW STORMS WHICH
GENERALLY TAKE OVER WHILE OTHERS GETS SUFFOCATED BY THE
STRONGER STORMS ENVIRONMENT. IF THIS PLAYS OUT THIS WAY THE AREA
OF CONCERN WILL SHRINK BUT THERE WOULD BE SIGNIFICANTLY
HEIGHTENED CONCERNS FOR THOSE IN THE PATH OF THOSE STRONGER
STORMS.
STORMS WILL LIKELY CLEAR OUT OF THE AREA JUST AFTER MIDNIGHT
WITH LITTLE TO NO WEATHER CONCERNS OVERNIGHT AS THE FRONT WILL
HAVE PUSHED THROUGH. HIGH PRESSURE WILL HOWEVER HOLD BACK A BIT
INTO TUESDAY AS THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM STICKS AROUND AND MAY
EVEN BRING A BACKDOOR COLD FRONT DURING THE DAY TUESDAY WHICH
MAY YIELD SOME LIGHT SHOWERY ACTIVITY. HOWEVER BY TUESDAY NIGHT
THE HIGH PRESSURE WILL START TO BUILD IN FROM THE WEST WITH
QUIETER CONDITIONS EXPECTED. HOWEVER, THE HIGHER PRESSURE MAY
START TO USHER BACK IN SOME SMOKE TO SOUTHERN WI.
KUROSKI
LONG TERM
ISSUED 1200 PM CDT MON JUL 20 2026
WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY:
HIGH PRESSURE WILL PUSH OVER SOUTHER WI AND NORTHERN IL FOR
WEDNESDAY AND STICK OVER THE AREA THROUGH AT LEAST THURSDAY
WHILE GRADUALLY DRIFTING EAST AND GRADUALLY WEAKENING THROUGH
FRIDAY. THERE IS AT LEAST SOME POTENTIAL FOR CONVECTION FRIDAY
AND SATURDAY BUT THIS APPEARS UNLIKELY AT THIS TIME GIVEN A BIT
MORE ACTIVITY ALOFT. HOWEVER, CHANCES INCREASE LATE WEEKEND AND
EARLY NEXT WEEK AS LOWER PRESSURE SWINGS IN. UNCERTAINTY
INCREASES FOR THIS PERIOD BUT LOOKS TO BE THE BEST CHANCE FOR
PRECIP AND STORMS IN THE EXTENDED. TIMING WILL DETERMINE ANY
STORM CONCERNS FOR THIS BUT TOO EARLY TO TELL AT THIS TIME.
KUROSKI
AVIATION
ISSUED 1200 PM CDT MON JUL 20 2026
WHILE SMOKE HANGS AROUND CAUSING SOME PATCHY MVFR VSBYS OUR
ATTENTION TURNS TO THIS AFTERNOON WHERE WE SHOULD EXPECT A ROUND
OF STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS WHICH MAY END UP BEING MORE ISOLATED
IN NATURE THAN CURRENT MODELS SUGGEST BUT ALL HAZARDS INCLUDING
LARGE HAIL, TORNADOES AND DAMAGING WINDS WOULD BE POSSIBLE. THE
TIME FRAME FOR THIS IS PRIMARILY BETWEEN 6PM AND MIDNIGHT WHERE
STORMS WILL TRACK SOUTHEAST ACROSS SOUTHERN WI. AFTER STORMS
PASS THROUGH THE FRONT WITH COME THROUGH BRINGING WINDS TO THE
NORTHWEST AND BREEZY. NORTH WINDS PRIMARILY TUESDAY WITH ANOTHER
BACKDOOR COLD FRONT POTENTIALLY BRINGING SHOWERS DURING THE
AFTERNOON. OTHERWISE EXPECT HIGHER PRESSURE TO BUILD BACK IN
TUESDAY NIGHT. SMOKE CONCERN WITH VSBYS RESTRICTIONS MAY RETURN
AS WINDS TURN BACK NORTH TO NORTHEAST WITH THE APPROACHING HIGH
PRESSURE.
KUROSKI
MARINE
ISSUED 1200 PM CDT MON JUL 20 2026
WILDFIRE SMOKE STILL ENCOMPASSES PARTS OF THE LAKE BUT IT IS NO
LONGER DENSE AND NO LONGER SIGNIFICANTLY IMPACTING VISIBILITIES
AND THUS THE MARINE DENSE SMOKE ADVISORY IS NO LONGER IN EFFECT.
LOW PRESSURE TRACKING SOUTHEAST THROUGH SOUTHERN ONTARIO WILL
DRAG A COLD FRONT ACROSS THE LAKE TONIGHT. SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST
WINDS AHEAD OF THE FRONT WILL BECOME GUSTY. AN OCCASIONAL GALE
FORCE GUST WILL BE POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING OVER THE
NORTHERN HALF OF THE LAKE. STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL
ALSO BE POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH TONIGHT ACROSS THE
ENTIRE LAKE. WINDS WILL VEER NORTHWEST BEHIND THE COLD FRONT AND
REMAIN GUSTY. THEN WINDS VEER DUE NORTH LATER TUESDAY INTO
TUESDAY NIGHT WITH GUSTS TO GALE FORCE POSSIBLE. HEADING INTO
WEDNESDAY WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO DIMINISH BECOMING LIGHT AND
VARIABLE BY WEDNESDAY NIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE
GREAT LAKES REGION.
KUROSKI
MKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
WI...BEACH HAZARDS STATEMENT...WIZ052-WIZ060...1 PM MONDAY TO 7 AM
TUESDAY.
LM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY...LMZ643-LMZ644...1 PM MONDAY TO 7 AM
TUESDAY.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY...LMZ645...1 PM MONDAY TO 1 AM TUESDAY.
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