317
FXUS63 KMKX 261153
AFDMKX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MILWAUKEE/SULLIVAN WI
653 AM CDT THU MAR 26 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- A COLD FRONT WILL DROP SOUTHWARD THROUGH THE REGION TODAY,
BRINGING SCATTERED RAIN SHOWERS AND COOLER TEMPERATURES BEHIND
IT. A FEW RUMBLES OF THUNDER ARE POSSIBLE IN SOUTHERN WI
TOWARDS THE WI/IL BORDER.
- COOLER CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST FRIDAY, WITH SCATTERED SNOW
SHOWERS POSSIBLE FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING (15-40%
CHANCE). HIGHEST CONFIDENCE TOWARDS EAST-CENTRAL WI.
- RETURN TO WARMER TEMPERATURES FOR THIS WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT
WEEK.
- TRENDING MORE ACTIVE EARLY-MID NEXT WEEK, WITH MULTIPLE
CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
UPDATE
ISSUED 653 AM CDT THU MAR 26 2026
RAIN HAS DEVELOP ACROSS CENTRAL WISCONSIN AND NORTHERN IOWA THIS
MORNING. THESE SHOWERS ARE DEVELOPING BEHIND THE COLD FRONT
WHERE THE BETTER MID LEVEL FGEN AND WAA RESIDES. THE WEAK
SOUTHWEST WINDS OVERNIGHT HAVE KEPT TEMPERATURES MILD AND
DEWPOINTS UP. THE RAIN SHOWERS CURRENTLY OUT ON RADAR WILL
CONTINUE EAST ACROSS THE STATE AND WILL SCRAPE AROUND THE EDGES
OF OUR FORECAST AREA. THESE SHOWERS WILL BE FAIRLY LIGHT THIS
MORNING, BUT THIS ISNT THE SHOW FOR US JUST YET.
MID LEVEL FGEN IS EXPECTED TO SLOWLY SHIFT SOUTH OVERTIME BEHIND
THE SFC COLD FRONT. WE CAN SEE THE WINDS DIRECTION CHANGE AND
SOME COLDER AIR START TO MOVE IN ALONG THE FRONT WHICH IS
STRETCHED ROUGHLY FROM MAUSTON TO OSHKOSH TO MANITOWOC. THIS
WEAK BOUNDARY WILL SLOWLY PULL SOUTH THROUGHOUT THE MORNING. AS
IT DOES SO THE SFC WAA WILL COME TO AN END AND TEMPERATURES
WILL START TO FALL. FAR SOUTH AND SOUTHWESTERN WISCONSIN WILL
HAVE THE WARMEST TEMPERATURES OF THE DAY AND THEREFORE THE MOST
INSTABILITY. THIS WILL BE THE AREA TO KEEP AN EYE ON AS WE HEAD
INTO THE LATE MORNING AND AFTERNOON WHEN THE MID LEVEL FORCING
IS OVERHEAD. THIS WILL BE THE AREA WITH THE BEST POTENTIAL FOR A
FEW RUMBLES OF THUNDER AS THE PRECIPITATION EXPANDS ACROSS
SOUTHERN WISCONSIN. NOT EXPECTING ANY STRONGER STORMS HERE AS WE
JUST WONT HAVE ENOUGH TIME TO DESTABILIZE HERE IN WISCONSIN
PRIOR TO THE COLD FRONT PASSING.
PATTERSON
SHORT TERM
ISSUED 1025 PM CDT WED MAR 25 2026
TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY:
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING INTO THE WESTERN CANADIAN PROVINCES WILL
FORCE A COLD FRONT SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE REGION THIS MORNING,
WITH NORTHEASTERLY WINDS ARRIVING BEHIND IT. SOME 700MB FGEN /
WAA WELL NORTH OF THE SURFACE FRONT MAY YIELD SOME LIGHT
SPRINKLES OF RAIN IN PORTIONS OF CENTRAL AND EAST-CENTRAL WI
FROM AROUND DAWN THIS MORNING THROUGH MID MORNING (MAINLY NORTH
OF A LONE ROCK TO JUNEAU TO SHEBOYGAN LINE, 10-30% CHANCES). THE
SURFACE FRONT COMPLETES IT'S PASSAGE LATER THIS MORNING, WITH
NORTHEAST WINDS THEN INTENSIFYING INTO THIS AFTERNOON. 30-40 MPH
GUSTS ARE POSSIBLE ALONG THE LAKE MI SHORELINE. THESE WINDS WILL
PROPEL THE SURFACE COLD FRONT SOUTH OF I-80 IN ILLINOIS.
AS COLD ADVECTION SHARPENS AND FGEN STRENGTHENS ALOFT THIS
AFTERNOON, WE EXPECT SCATTERED RAINSHOWERS TO DEVELOP OVERHEAD
(45-80% RAIN CHANCES). THOUGH WE STILL CANNOT RULE OUT A FEW
RUMBLES OF THUNDER SOUTH OF I-94, PROBABILITIES HAVE DECLINED
SINCE THE PAST FORECAST ITERATION. IF A STORM OR TWO WERE TO
BECOME LOCALLY STRONG, SOME SMALL HAIL WOULD BE POSSIBLE. SEVERE
STORMS ARE NOT EXPECTED IN OUR REGION WITH THIS SETUP. RAIN
SHOWER ACTIVITY CONFINES FURTHER SOUTH INTO EARLY THIS EVENING,
LEAVING DRY WEATHER AND GUSTY NORTH WINDS FOR TONIGHT.
LIGHT NORTHERLY CAA CONTINUES INTO FRIDAY, TURNING NORTHWEST
INTO FRIDAY AFTERNOON AS THE AFOREMENTIONED HIGH PRESSURE KICKS
INTO THE DAKOTAS. -15 TO -20 CELSIUS AIR AT THE 700MB LEVEL
MOVES OVERHEAD INTO FRIDAY AFTERNOON, SHARPENING THE SURFACE TO
700MB LAPSE RATES TO DRY ADIABATIC AND ALLOWING FOR SUFFICIENT
SURFACE-BASED BUOYANCY TO CREATE OPEN-CELLULAR CONVECTIVE SNOW
SHOWERS, WHICH (BASED ON LAPSE RATES / POSITIONING OF COLD AIR
ALOFT) WILL BE MOST CONCENTRATED TOWARDS EAST-CENTRAL WI FRIDAY
AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THOUGH SURFACE AIR TEMPS WILL BE ABOVE
FREEZING FRIDAY AFTERNOON (HIGHS IN THE MID 30S EAST-CENTRAL WI
TO LOW 40S SOUTHWEST WI), WE EXPECT THEM TO DROP INTO THE
EVENING. THOUGH FRONTOGENESIS IS TOO WEAK / DISORGANIZED TO
MERIT A SUBSTANTIAL THREAT FOR SQUALLS, WE DO EXPECT POPCORN-
STYLE CONVECTIVE SNOW SHOWERS TO DEVELOP, AND IF LOW-LEVEL RH IS
HIGH ENOUGH FOR THE SNOW TO REACH THE GROUND, WE COULD SEE SOME
POCKETS OF REDUCED VISIBILITY, AND PERHAPS EVEN SLICK SPOTS OR
RAPID MINOR ACCUMULATIONS IF SURFACE TEMPERATURES ALLOW.
DEPENDING ON THE CHOICE OF MODEL, YOU COULD WIND UP WITH MOSTLY
VIRGA (EVAPORATES BEFORE REACHING THE GROUND). WE'LL CONTINUE TO
MONITOR AS FRIDAY DRAWS CLOSER.
DRY WEATHER LOOKING LIKELY INTO SATURDAY WITH A SOUTHWESTERLY
BREEZE. TEMPERATURES BEGIN A GRADUAL UPWARD TREND FROM THEN
ONWARDS.
SHEPPARD
LONG TERM
ISSUED 1015 PM CDT WED MAR 25 2026
SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY:
SYNOPSIS: CENTERED OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS AT THE BEGINNING OF THE
PERIOD, SUBTROPICAL RIDGING WILL BREAK DOWN OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO
SUNDAY INTO THE BEGINNING OF NEXT WEEK. BREAKDOWN OF THE RIDGE WILL
ALLOW FOR INTERACTION/PHASING OF THE POLAR AND SUBTROPICAL JET
STREAMS THROUGH THE EARLY WEEK PERIOD, WITH ONE UPPER SPEED MAX
EXTENDING FROM SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA TO THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES TO
QUEBEC BY THE MID-WEEK TIME FRAME. A COLD FRONT IS PROGGED TO MOVE
THROUGH THE AREA DURING THE DAY MONDAY, LIKELY STALLING OVER
NORTHERN ILLINOIS BY MONDAY EVENING. THE BOUNDARY WILL ATTEMPT TO
WORK BACK NORTH INTO THE AREA AS A WARM FRONT TUESDAY INTO
WEDNESDAY AS LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPS IN THE CENTRAL PLAINS. SAID
AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL MIGRATE EAST WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO
THURSDAY, ALLOWING THE BOUNDARY TO BECOME COLD FRONTAL ONCE MORE &
SHUNTING IT THROUGH/SOUTH OF THE AREA. THE PRESENCE OF THE
WAFFLING SURFACE FRONT, IN ADDITION TO THE STRENGTHENING AND
PERIODICALLY DIVERGENT FLOW ALOFT, WILL THUS RESULT IN MORE ACTIVE
CONDITIONS DURING THE EARLY TO MID WEEK PERIOD ACROSS SOUTHERN
WISCONSIN. ABSENCE OF ANY DEEPER COLD AIR PUSHES WILL KEEP
TEMPERATURES MILD, WITH ALL RAIN BEING FAVORED DURING PERIODS OF
ACTIVE WEATHER. THUNDERSTORMS MAY MIX IN WITH THE RAIN. ANY
STRONGER STORM POTENTIAL REMAINS UNCERTAIN AT THIS TIME, WITH
TRENDS BEING MONITORED OVER COMING UPDATES.
MONDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT: GLOBAL GUIDANCE CURRENTLY DEPICTS AN
EARLY DAY COLD FRONT PASSAGE IN SOUTHERN WISCONSIN, WITH A NORTHEAST
WIND SHIFT OFF LAKE MICHIGAN HELPING TO SHOVE THE BOUNDARY SOUTH OF
THE STATE LINE BY MONDAY AFTERNOON. SOLUTIONS SHOW THE FRONT
STALLING OVER THE NORTHERN ILLINOIS VICINITY DURING THE EVENING &
OVERNIGHT HOURS, WITH THE 925-850 MB FRONT LAGGING OVER THE
SOUTHERN HALF OF WISCONSIN. COMBINED WITH AN INCREASING NIGHTTIME
LOW LEVEL JET, COULD THUS SEE AN INCREASINGLY FAVORABLE
ENVIRONMENT FOR ELEVATED SHOWERS & STORMS ACROSS THE AREA MONDAY
EVENING & NIGHT. HAVE MAINTAINED PRECIP PROBABILITIES FROM THE NBM
IN THE EVENING UPDATE, AS THEY REFLECT THE GENERALLY INCREASING
POTENTIAL FOR PRECIP THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD. EXPECT THESE
PROBABILITIES TO SHARPEN & INCREASE TO MORE PRECISE LOCATIONS IN
LATER UPDATES AS CONFIDENCE IN SPECIFIC AREAS OF SHOWER/STORM
DEVELOPMENT INCREASES. WILL NEED TO MONITOR TRENDS REGARDING
STRONGER STORM POTENTIAL IN COMING UPDATES GIVEN INCREASING MUCAPE
& SHEAR BENEATH THE UPPER JET, THOUGH REMAINING UNCERTAINTIES
REGARDING THE EXACT PLACEMENT OF BOUNDARIES & THE LOW LEVEL JET
MAKE IT TOO EARLY TO OFFER ANY SPECIFICS IN THIS FORECAST.
TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY: EXPECT ACTIVE CONDITIONS TO CONTINUE WITH
A SURFACE FRONT IN THE VICINITY & PERSISTING DYNAMIC FLOW ALOFT.
WHILE THE NBM DEPICTS CONTINUOUS PRECIPITATION PROBABILITIES DURING
THIS TIME FRAME, THERE WILL BE DRY PERIODS MIXED IN WITH THE BOUTS
OF SHOWER & THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY. THESE FINER SCALE TIMING DETAILS
WILL BE SORTED OUT AS THIS PORTION OF THE PERIOD DRAWS CLOSER.
SIMILAR TO MONDAY EVENING/NIGHT, IT REMAINS TOO EARLY TO OFFER
SPECIFICS ON ANY STRONGER STORM POTENTIAL GIVEN REMAINING
UNCERTAINTIES ON SURFACE FRONT EVOLUTION/TIMING. WILL ALSO NEED TO
MONITOR FOR ANY TRENDS REGARDING HEAVY RAINFALL GIVEN THE POTENTIAL
FOR MULTIPLE ROUNDS OF SHOWERS/STORMS DURING THIS TIME FRAME.
QUIGLEY
AVIATION
ISSUED 653 AM CDT THU MAR 26 2026
VFR TO IFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD. LIGHT
WINDS PREDOMINATELY OUT OF THE SOUTHWEST WILL PERSIST THROUGH
SUNRISE THIS MORNING AS A COLD FRONT SLOWLY MOVES SOUTH DOWN THE
STATE. THIS COLD FRONT IS CURRENTLY ALONG A LINE FROM MAUSTON TO
OSHKOSH TO MANITOWOC. NORTH-NORTHEAST WINDS ARE EXPECTED BEHIND
THE COLD FRONT LATER THIS MORNING INTO THE AFTERNOON. THESE
NORTHERLY WINDS WILL INITIALLY BE LIGHT AS THE FRONT PASSES
THEN THEY SHOULD QUICKLY INCREASE BECOMING BREEZY. GUSTS OF 20
TO 30 KTS (~ 25 TO 35 MPH) WILL BE POSSIBLE BEHIND THE COLD
FRONT THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH TONIGHT. WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO BE
AT THEIR STRONGEST ALONG LAKE MICHIGAN. CEILINGS WILL SLOWLY
FALL TO AROUND 1-3 KFT LATE THIS MORNING INTO THE AFTERNOON AS
RAIN DEVELOPS ACROSS SOUTHERN WISCONSIN. CAN'T RULE OUT A COUPLE
RUMBLES OF THUNDER ACROSS FAR SOUTHERN WISCONSIN LATE THIS
MORNING THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON. NOT ANTICIPATING ANY STRONGER
STORMS TO DEVELOP. SINCE THUNDER ARE SMALL AND ANY RUMBLES OF
THUNDER WILL BE SCATTERED/INTERMITTENT LEFT THE MENTION OF
THUNDER OUT OF THE TAFS. ONCE THE RAIN HAS CLEARED LATER THIS
AFTERNOON THE MVFR CEILINGS ARE EXPECTED TO LINGER INTO THE
EVENING HOURS BEFORE CLEARING FROM WEST TO EAST. VFR CEILINGS
WILL RETURN TONIGHT AS THE CLOUD DECK BEGINS TO CLEAR. AS WE
NEAR THE END OF THE TAF PERIOD WINDS WILL START TO DIMINISH AND
BECOME LIGHTER. WINDS WILL BE SHIFTING FROM NORTH-NORTHEAST TO
NORTH THEN NORTHWEST BY MID FRIDAY MORNING.
PATTERSON
MARINE
ISSUED 1015 PM CDT WED MAR 25 2026
OPEN WATERS / SYNOPSIS:
A WEAK BACKDOOR COLD FRONT WILL SAG SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE LAKE
OVERNIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING, WITH A SOUTHWEST BREEZE AHEAD
OF IT AND LIGHT NORTH WINDS BEHIND IT. LOW PRESSURE STRENGTHENS TO
29.4 INCHES OVER THE CENTRAL GREAT PLAINS ON THURSDAY, WITH A
TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE AROUND 29.7 INCHES EXTENDING NORTHEASTWARD
THROUGH ILLINOIS / INDIANA (SOUTH OF THE AFOREMENTIONED COLD
FRONT). MEANWHILE, HIGH PRESSURE AROUND 30.7 INCHES BUILDS INTO
SOUTHERN CANADA. THE TIGHTENING PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL CAUSE NORTH
WINDS TO ACCELERATE ACROSS THE LAKE THURSDAY AFTERNOON, ACHIEVING
GALE FORCE OVER THE SOUTHERN TWO THIRDS OF THE LAKE LATE THURSDAY
AFTERNOON THROUGH LATE THURSDAY NIGHT. A GALE WARNING IS IN
EFFECT.
NORTH WINDS GRADUALLY SUBSIDE IN A NORTH TO SOUTH MANNER FRIDAY AS
THE AFOREMENTIONED HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE MIDWEST. LIGHT
NORTHWEST WINDS EXPECTED INTO FRIDAY NIGHT AS THE AFOREMENTIONED
HIGH PRESSURE PASSES SOUTHWEST OF THE LAKE, WITH WINDS GRADUALLY
BACKING SOUTH THROUGH SATURDAY. MODEST SOUTHERLY WINDS TAKE HOLD
FOR MUCH OF THE REST OF THE WEEKEND AS HIGH PRESSURE EXITS EAST
INTO THE ATLANTIC AND BROAD LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPS OVER THE PLAINS.
NEARSHORE ZONES:
A GALE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR ALL NEARSHORE ZONES LATE
THURSDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH LATE THURSDAY NIGHT. NORTH GALES UP
TO 35 KNOTS ARE EXPECTED, WITH THE HIGHEST CONFIDENCE IN
ACHIEVING GALE FORCE FURTHER SOUTH (MAINLY SOUTH OF PORT
WASHINGTON). WAVES WILL PEAK IN THE 5 TO 11 FOOT RANGE, WITH
THE HIGHEST WAVES FURTHER SOUTH AND FURTHER OFFSHORE (CLOSER TO
THE OPEN WATERS). LINGERING WAVES WILL LIKELY NECESSITATE A
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM WHEN THE GALE WARNING EXPIRES (LATE
THURSDAY NIGHT) THROUGH ALL OF FRIDAY MORNING, PERHAPS INTO
FRIDAY AFTERNOON FOR SOUTHERN ZONES.
SHEPPARD
MKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
WI...NONE.
LM...GALE WARNING...LMZ080-LMZ366-LMZ565-LMZ567-LMZ643-LMZ644-
LMZ645-LMZ646-LMZ669-LMZ671-LMZ673-LMZ675-LMZ777-LMZ779-
LMZ868-LMZ870-LMZ872-LMZ874-LMZ876-LMZ878...5 PM THURSDAY
TO 5 AM FRIDAY.
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