304
FXUS63 KMKX 151218
AFDMKX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MILWAUKEE/SULLIVAN WI
718 AM CDT TUE SEP 15 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- WIDESPREAD RAIN WITH ISOLATED EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUE
THROUGH MIDDAY TODAY.
- A GALE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT THROUGH 1 PM CDT FOR THE
NORTHERN THIRD OF LAKE MICHIGAN
- A HIGH SWIM RISK IS EXPECTED FOR SHEBOYGAN AND OZAUKEE COUNTY
BEACHES THROUGH THE MORNING DUE STRONG ONSHORE WINDS AND WAVES
OF 4-8 FT.
- MIDWEEK SHOWER AND STORM CHANCES, BUT BETTER CHANCES FOR AREAS
ALONG AND SOUTH OF THE WI/IL BORDER. ADDITIONAL SHOWER AND
STORM CHANCES INTO THE WEEKEND.
UPDATE
ISSUED 718 AM CDT TUE SEP 15 2026
WIDESPREAD RAINFALL WITH ISOLATED EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS WILL
CONTINUE ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH THE MORNING, SLOWLY TAPERING
OFF FROM NORTH TO SOUTH MIDDAY INTO THIS AFTERNOON. WITH
RAINFALL RATES GENERALLY ONLY UP TO 0.1"/HR, NOT ANTICIPATING
FLOODING CONCERNS, ALTHOUGH RISING STREAMS FROM OVERNIGHT
RAINFALL MAY DEVELOP. HIGH SWIM RISK REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR
OZAUKEE AND SHEBOYGAN COUNTIES THROUGH MIDDAY. STAY OUT OF THE
WATER AND AWAY FROM DANGEROUS AREAS LIKE PIERS AND BREAKWALLS!
IN MILWAUKEE, RACINE, AND KENOSHA COUNTIES, A MODERATE SWIM RISK
REMAINS THROUGH MIDDAY.
SHORT TERM
ISSUED 1152 PM CDT MON SEP 14 2026
TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY:
A SW-NE ORIENTED BAND OF SHOWERS AND SCATTERED STORMS FROM NE IA
TO CENTRAL WI IS EXPECTED TO LEAN OVER TO THE EAST TO SOUTHEAST
THROUGH THE NIGHT. THIS WILL COINCIDE WITH THE AXIS OF THE SWLY
50-60 KT LOW LEVEL JET AND THE ARRIVAL OF HIGH SFC-925 MB
MOISTURE CONTENT. ELEVATED CAPE UP TO 1500 J/KG IS EXPECTED BUT
WITH A DEEP FRONTAL INVERSION IN THE EARLY MORNING HOURS. THE
SSWLY LOW LEVEL JET WILL VEER INTO SE WI AND NRN IL TOWARD 12Z
TUE WITH A WEAKENING TREND. IT STILL APPEARS THE VEERING OF THE
LOW LEVEL JET WILL MAINTAIN A PROGRESSIVE LEADING EDGE OF DEEP
CONVECTION, ALTHOUGH ADDITIONAL SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL DEVELOP
IN ITS WAKE AND LAST TOWARD MID TO LATE TUE AM. OVERALL THOUGH,
BELIEVE THE HEAVY RAINFALL RATES WILL BE LIMITED WITH LOCALIZED
EXCEPTIONS. ANTECEDENT CONDITIONS HAVE ALSO BEEN DRY. WILL
CONTINUE TO MESSAGE THE POTENTIAL FOR URBAN AND SMALL STREAM
FLOODING, GREATEST WELL WEST OF THE MKE METRO AREA.
THE WEAKENING AND SLOWING TRAILING COLD FRONT WILL THEN PASS TUE
AFTERNOON BUT THE LIFT WILL BE WEAK AND SOME CAPPING WILL BE IN
PLACE BY THEN. THE FRONT IS THEN EXPECTED TO PUSH INTO CENTRAL
OR SRN IL FOR TUE NT-WED AS HIGH PRESSURE SHIFTS EWD ACROSS THE
NRN GREAT LAKES. MOSTLY DRY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED DURING THIS
TIME.
GEHRING
LONG TERM
ISSUED 1152 PM CDT MON SEP 14 2026
WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY:
A WEAK WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE AND SHORTWAVE TROUGH ALOFT IS
EXPECTED TO TRACK ALONG THE STATIONARY FRONT OVER NRN OR CENTRAL
IL FOR WED NT-THU. MEANWHILE A LARGE HIGH PRESSURE AREA WILL
MOVE INTO WRN ONTARIO LATE ON THU, THEN ACROSS ONTARIO INTO
QUEBEC FOR THU NT-FRI. THE HIGH WILL LIKELY SUPPRESS THE SHOWERS
AND STORMS FARTHER TO THE SOUTH THAN PRIOR FORECASTS. RAIN
CHANCES RANGE FROM 30-50 PERCENT WITH HIGHEST PROBABILITIES NEAR
THE IL BORDER LATE WED NT.
FOR FRI-SUN, CYCLOGENESIS MAY ACCOMPANY A SHORTWAVE TROUGH
MOVING EWD ACROSS THE GREAT PLAINS INTO THE GREAT LAKES AND
BRING MORE SHOWERS AND STORMS TO THE REGION. THERE IS
UNCERTAINTY WITH THE TRACK AND OVERALL EVOLUTION OF THE TROUGH.
NEVERTHELESS, 60-80 PERCENT CHANCES OF RAIN ARE FORECAST FOR
LATE FRI NT-SAT. WITH LESSENING CHANCES INTO SUN-MON. TEMPS WILL
BE NEAR NORMAL FOR THIS PERIOD.
GEHRING
AVIATION
ISSUED 718 AM CDT TUE SEP 15 2026
STEADY RAIN AND CEILINGS LOWERING TO AROUND 1500 FT THIS
MORNING, WITH RAIN TAPERING OFF INTO MIDDAY. CEILINGS WILL
GRADUALLY RECOVER TO VFR THIS AFTERNOON AFTER RAIN ENDS AND A
COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE AREA. WINDS AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT
WILL REMAIN SOUTHWESTERLY AROUND 12 KT, GUSTING UP TO 20 KT
OCCASIONALLY. BEHIND THE COLD FRONT, EXPECT A WIND SHIFT TO
WEST-NORTHWEST AND STEADY WINDS AROUND 10 KT. WINDS BECOME LIGHT
AND VARIABLE OVERNIGHT. PATCHY FOG IS POSSIBLE IN LOW-LYING
AREAS. WINDS TURN NORTHEASTERLY AND SKIES REMAIN VFR INTO
WEDNESDAY MORNING.
MH
MARINE
ISSUED 1152 PM CDT MON SEP 14 2026
SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL INCREASE TO GALES BY MIDNIGHT AND CONTINUE
THROUGH THE NIGHT. A GALE WARNING IS IN EFFECT. THE GALES WILL
THEN DECREASE FROM SOUTH TO NORTH ACROSS THE LAKE THROUGH
TUESDAY MORNING. THE SOUTHERLY GALES ARE A RESULT OF LOW
PRESSURE AROUND 29.3 INCHES TRACKING FROM SOUTHERN MANITOBA
TOWARD SOUTHERN HUDSON BAY THROUGH TUESDAY. THE TRAILING COLD
FRONT WILL THEN SLOW AND WEAKEN AS IT MOVES ACROSS THE LAKE
TUESDAY AFTERNOON INTO EARLY EVENING. MODEST NORTHWEST WINDS
TUESDAY EVENING WILL SHIFT TO NORTHEASTERLY BY EARLY WEDNESDAY
MORNING AS HIGH PRESSURE AROUND 30.4 INCHES MOVES ACROSS THE
NORTHERN GREAT LAKES. LIGHTER WINDS WILL THEN PREVAIL WEDNESDAY
NIGHT INTO FRIDAY UNTIL STRONGER SOUTHERLY WINDS RETURN FRIDAY
NIGHT AND SATURDAY AHEAD OF ANOTHER LOW PRESSURE AREA
APPROACHING FROM THE GREAT PLAINS.
GEHRING
MKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
WI...BEACH HAZARDS STATEMENT...WIZ052-WIZ060 UNTIL 1 PM TUESDAY.
LM...GALE WARNING...LMZ261-LMZ362-LMZ364-LMZ563 UNTIL 1 PM TUESDAY.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY...LMZ643-LMZ644 UNTIL 1 PM TUESDAY.
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