184
FXUS63 KMKX 071947
AFDMKX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MILWAUKEE/SULLIVAN WI
247 PM CDT WED OCT 7 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- THERE IS A CHANCE (20 TO 25 PERCENT) FOR A BRIEF PERIOD OF
LIGHT SHOWERS FRIDAY AFTERNOON.
- HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO BE ABOVE SEASONAL NORMAL
VALUES INTO FRIDAY, AND WELL ABOVE NORMAL THIS WEEKEND.
SHORT TERM
ISSUED 247 PM CDT WED OCT 7 2026
TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY:
SOUTHERN WI WILL REMAIN IN NORTHWEST FLOW THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT
AS LOW PRESSURE OVER JAMES BAY INCHES INTO QUEBEC. HIGH
TEMPERATURES THU WILL CONTINUE TO BE ABOVE NORMAL (63-65),
TOPPING OUT IN THE UPPER 60S. LOWS TONIGHT AND THU NT WILL BE IN
THE UPPER 40S.
WINDS WILL BECOME SOUTHEASTERLY FRIDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE EXITS
TO THE EAST AND AN ELEVATED (925-850MB) WARM FRONT LIFTS THROUGH
NORTHEAST IA, NORTHERN IL, AND SOUTHERN WI. A STRONG LOW LEVEL
JET WILL ACCOMPANY THIS FRONT, ALONG WITH A SUBTLE MID- LEVEL
SHORTWAVE TROUGH WITH THE SOURCE MOISTURE REGION OF THE PACIFIC
NORTHWEST. WE ARE MAINTAINING A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS (20 TO
25%) WITH THIS FORCING FEATURE. WHILE THE VORTICITY ADVECTION
AND MOISTURE ARE NOT STRONG/HIGH, THE LOW LEVEL FORCING IS
DECENT AND THE MOISTURE IS CONSISTENT THROUGHOUT THE COLUMN
(92% RH AT 700MB). ALSO, WITH SOME ELEVATED INSTABILITY
PRESENT (500 J/KG), WE CANNOT RULE OUT A RUMBLE OF THUNDER. FOR
NOW IT IS CONFINED TO SOUTHEAST WI, BUT THIS POTENTIAL COULD BE
EXPANDED TO ANYWHERE WITH THE CHANCE OF SHOWERS.
THE RADAR SHOULD SHOW AN AREA OF LIGHT RETURNS IN A NORTHWEST-
SOUTHEAST ORIENTED ARC (ALONG THE WARM FRONT) OVER THE IA/WI/IL
BORDER BY MIDDAY FRIDAY. THAT BAND WILL LIFT NORTHEASTWARD
THROUGH SOUTHERN AND EAST CENTRAL WI DURING THE AFTERNOON,
ALTHOUGH TIMING IS A LITTLE UNCERTAIN. WHILE THIS BRIEF PERIOD
OF RAIN COULD WET THE PAVEMENT, IT WILL BE ON THE MOVE AND
SHOULD ONLY AMOUNT TO A TENTH OF AN INCH OR LESS BEFORE IT
MOVES OUT.
SKIES WILL CLEAR FRIDAY NIGHT, BUT LOWS WILL BE MUCH MILDER,
ONLY DROPPING TO THE UPPER 50S.
CRONCE
LONG TERM
ISSUED 247 PM CDT WED OCT 7 2026
SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY:
VERY WARM TEMPS ARE EXPECTED ON SATURDAY DUE TO PERSISTENT AND
DRY SOUTHWEST FLOW ORIGINATING FROM THE WESTERN STATES. THIS IS
DUE TO A BROAD UPPER TROUGH OVER THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST AND A
RESULTANT SURFACE LOW OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS, AND HIGH
PRESSURE OVER THE NORTHEASTERN STATES. WITH 925MB TEMPS OF 20 TO
21C OVER SOUTHERN WI AND EFFICIENT MIXING OF A VERY DRY AIR
MASS RIGHT UP TO THAT LEVEL (AND LIKELY A WEAK INVERSION ABOVE
THAT), WE CAN EXPECT THE HIGH TEMPS TO BE RIGHT AROUND 80 (UP TO
82). THE RECORD HIGH FOR THAT DAY IS 84, SO WE CAN SAY THAT OUR
HIGHS WILL APPROACH THE RECORD.
A TROPICAL DISTURBANCE OVER THE GULF OF AMERICA IS EXPECTED TO
STRENGTHEN AND THEN TRACK ACROSS THE OHIO RIVER VALLEY ON SUNDAY.
SOUTHEAST WI WILL LIKELY SEE CLOUD COVER FROM THIS SYSTEM (BUT
NO RAIN), WHICH WILL KEEP TEMPS IN THE LOWER- MID 70S INSTEAD
OF UPPER 70S).
A NORTHERN STREAM MID LEVEL TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO SLIDE ACROSS
US/CANADIAN BORDER AND LAKE SUPERIOR MONDAY OR TUESDAY (COULD BE
A SERIES OF WAVES) AND THIS WILL PUSH A COLD FRONT DOWN THROUGH
CENTRAL AND EVENTUALLY SOUTHERN WI. SHOWERS AND PERHAPS A FEW
THUNDERSTORMS WILL LIKELY ACCOMPANY THIS FRONT, BUT THE TIMING
AND RAINFALL AMOUNTS ARE STILL VERY UNCERTAIN.
COOLER, MORE SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES WILL RETURN AROUND THE
MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.
CRONCE
AVIATION
ISSUED 247 PM CDT WED OCT 7 2026
BREEZY WEST-NORTHWEST WINDS WILL QUICKLY DIMINISH AROUND SUNSET
WITH THE LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING AND THE RESULTANT MIXING. WE
CAN EXPECT ANOTHER PERIOD OF BREEZY WINDS THU AFTERNOON.
OTHERWISE, EXPECT CLEAR SKIES WITH THE OCCASIONAL HIGH CLOUD
OVERHEAD THROUGH THU EVENING.
CRONCE
MARINE
ISSUED 247 PM CDT WED OCT 7 2026
WESTERLY WINDS OVER THE UPPER GREAT LAKES WILL PERSIST THROUGH
THURSDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE AROUND 30.1 INCHES PUSHES INTO THE
REGION. WINDS WILL BECOME SOUTHERLY ON FRIDAY AS THE HIGH DEPARTS
AND LOW PRESSURE AROUND 29.2 INCHES APPROACHES FROM THE
NORTHERN PLAINS. THE TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT OVER LAKE MICHIGAN
WILL PRODUCE BREEZY SOUTHERLY WINDS UP TO 30 KT FROM FRIDAY
NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING. WE CANNOT RULE OUT A COUPLE OF
GALE FORCE GUSTS IN THE NORTH HALF SATURDAY AFTERNOON.
CRONCE
MKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
WI...NONE.
LM...NONE.
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