618
FXUS63 KMKX 241817
AFDMKX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MILWAUKEE/SULLIVAN WI
117 PM CDT WED JUN 24 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- CHANCES FOR THUNDERSTORMS ON AND OFF THROUGH THIS EVENING. A
SLIGHT RISK FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY
EVENING, WITH THE MAIN HAZARDS DAMAGING WINDS AND HAIL,
ESPECIALLY IN AREAS THAT SEE CLEARING IN THE EARLY AFTERNOON
HOURS. A TORNADO OR TWO WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE.
- ACTIVE SHOWER/STORM PATTERN DEVELOPS FOR SATURDAY NIGHT
THROUGH WEDNESDAY NEXT WEEK.
- A STRONG WARMING TREND IS EXPECTED EARLY NEXT WEEK,
POTENTIALLY NEARING HEAT ADVISORY CRITERIA MONDAY THROUGH
WEDNESDAY.
SHORT TERM
ISSUED 117 PM CDT WED JUN 24 2026
THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT:
AS RAIN FROM THIS MORNING EXITS THE SOUTHEAST, WATCHING THE
POTENTIAL FOR NEW DEVELOPMENT THAT HAS BEGUN ALONG A BOUNDARY
STRETCHED LARGELY WEST TO EAST ACROSS THE CENTRAL FORECAST AREA.
INSTABILITY WILL GRADUALLY INCREASE THIS AFTERNOON, WITH A FEW
POCKETS OF CLEARING WITHIN THE WIDESPREAD MOSTLY CLOUDY
CONDITIONS. WILL ALSO SEE A POTENTIAL FOR STORMS TO DEVELOP LATE
AFTERNOON INTO EARLY EVENING ALONG A WEAK COLD FRONT APPROACHING
FROM THE NORTHWEST. GIVEN SURFACE BASED CAPE EXPECTED TO
INCREASE TO AROUND 2000 J/KG (ESPECIALLY FROM MADISON WESTWARD)
ALONG WITH 0-6 KM BULK SHEAR UPWARDS OF 40 KT, STILL THINKING A
FEW STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON INTO
THE EVENING. THE ACTIVITY ALONG THE FRONT MAY HAVE A BETTER
CHANCE TO REACH SEVERE LEVELS, GIVEN LIKELY MORE AVAILABLE
INSTABILITY. HAIL AND WIND REMAIN THE MAIN SEVERE CONCERNS,
THOUGH NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION FOR A TORNADO OR TWO.
WILL HAVE TO WATCH THE POTENTIAL FOR LOCALIZED FLOODING CONCERNS
THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING GIVEN A NARROW SWATH OF 1.5 TO 3
INCHES OF RAIN THAT FELL THIS MORNING. IF ADDITIONAL STORMS
PRODUCE HEAVY RAINFALL OVER THESE ALREADY SATURATED AREAS, SOME
LOCALIZED AREAL OR FLASH FLOODING COULD OCCUR.
SHOWERS AND A FEW RUMBLES OF THUNDER MAY LINGER MAINLY NORTH OF
I-94 LATE EVENING AS A SURFACE LOW SLOWLY MOVES THROUGH, WITH
DRY WEATHER EXPECTED OVERNIGHT BEHIND THE LOW.
A FEW SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE MAINLY ACROSS THE NORTHEAST HALF
OF THE FORECAST AREA FROM LATE THURSDAY MORNING INTO EARLY
EVENING. THIS WILL BE DUE TO A WEAK VORT MAX SWINGING THROUGH
LINGERING CYCLONIC FLOW ALONG WITH POSSIBLE ADDITIONAL LIFT DUE
TO LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE AS WINDS TURN ONSHORE NEAR THE LAKE.
NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION FOR A FEW RUMBLES OF THUNDER AS WELL.
OTHERWISE, SKIES SHOULD BE PARTLY CLOUDY WITH HIGHS IN THE 70S
ONCE AGAIN.
DDV
LONG TERM
ISSUED 117 PM CDT WED JUN 24 2026
FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY:
THE UPPER LEVEL FLOW IS EXPECTED TO BE ZONAL ON FRIDAY, WITH
UPPER LEVEL RIDGING BEGINNING TO BUILD IN FROM THE WEST ON
SATURDAY. DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED BOTH DAYS UNDER SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE. TEMPS WILL REMAIN A BIT BELOW NORMAL FRIDAY, WARMING
BACK TO AROUND NORMAL SATURDAY AS THE UPPER RIDGE BUILDS IN.
UPPER LEVEL RIDGING WILL CONTINUE TO STRENGTHEN ACROSS THE
MIDWEST AND NORTHEAST UNITED STATES EARLY NEXT WEEK, WITH
INCREASING TEMPERATURES LIKELY FOR SOUTHERN WISCONSIN.
DEWPOINTS WILL INCREASE AS WELL, WITH A CHANCE FOR HEAT ADVISORY
CONDITIONS MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY, ESPECIALLY IF IT REMAINS
DRY DURING THE DAYTIME PERIODS. THAT SAID, THERE IS A CHANCE
THAT STORMS COULD MOVE THROUGH THE TOP OF THE RIDGE AND IMPACT
SOUTHERN WISCONSIN ONCE OR TWICE FROM SAT NIGHT THROUGH EARLY
NEXT WEEK. CONFIDENCE IS ON THE LOWER END IN ANY POTENTIAL
PRECIP TIMING AT THIS POINT.
DDV
AVIATION
ISSUED 117 PM CDT WED JUN 24 2026
WATCHING THE POTENTIAL FOR NEW STORM DEVELOPMENT THAT HAS BEGUN
ALONG A BOUNDARY STRETCHED LARGELY WEST TO EAST ACROSS THE
CENTRAL FORECAST AREA. WILL ALSO SEE A POTENTIAL FOR STORMS TO
DEVELOP LATE AFTERNOON INTO EARLY EVENING ALONG A WEAK COLD
FRONT APPROACHING FROM THE NORTHWEST. STILL THINKING A FEW
STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON INTO THE
EVENING. HAIL AND WIND REMAIN THE MAIN SEVERE CONCERNS, THOUGH
NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION FOR A TORNADO OR TWO.
SHOWERS AND A FEW RUMBLES OF THUNDER MAY LINGER MAINLY NORTH OF
I-94 LATE EVENING AS A SURFACE LOW SLOWLY MOVES THROUGH, WITH
DRY WEATHER EXPECTED OVERNIGHT BEHIND THE LOW. A FEW SHOWERS
WILL BE POSSIBLE MAINLY ACROSS THE NORTHEAST HALF OF THE
FORECAST AREA FROM LATE MORNING INTO EARLY EVENING THURSDAY.
A MIX OF VFR/MVFR/IFR CEILINGS WILL CONTINUE THIS AFTERNOON INTO
THE EVENING ALONG WITH ROUNDS OF SHOWERS AND STORMS. SHOULD SEE
A TRANSITION TO VFR CONDITIONS TONIGHT WITH SOME MVFR CEILINGS
POSSIBLE THURSDAY MORNING, MAINLY NORTH OF I-94.
OUTSIDE OF VARIABLE WINDS NEAR STORMS, PREVAILING WINDS SHOULD
REMAIN LIGHT FROM THE WEST TO SOUTHWEST INTO THIS EVENING,
GRADUALLY BECOMING WEST TO NORTHWEST OVERNIGHT INTO THURSDAY
MORNING AS LOW PRESSURE GRADUALLY EXITS TO THE EAST.
DDV
MARINE
ISSUED 117 PM CDT WED JUN 24 2026
WEAK LOW PRESSURE AROUND 29.9 INCHES IN NORTHERN MINNESOTA WILL
RESULT IN SOUTHERLY WINDS ACROSS THE LAKE TODAY. AS THIS SYSTEM
PUSHES EASTWARD THROUGH NORTHERN WI THIS EVENING WE EXPECT
WINDS TO DECELERATE, TURNING EAST OVER NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE
LAKE AND REMAINING SOUTH OVER THE SOUTHERN HALF. SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED AT TIMES TODAY AND TONIGHT WITH THE
PASSAGE OF THIS SYSTEM.
LIGHT NORTHWESTERLY WINDS ARE EXPECTED THURSDAY AS LOW PRESSURE
DEPARTS EASTWARD. HIGH PRESSURE AROUND 30.1 INCHES OVER ONTARIO
AND THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES WILL DOMINATE FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY
WITH LIGHT NORTH TO NORTHEAST WINDS LIKELY. SUNDAY, LOW PRESSURE
DEEPENS TO 29.4 INCHES OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS, BRINGING BREEZY
SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS TO THE LAKE. WINDS TURN SOUTHERLY AND
STRENGTHEN INTO MONDAY AS LOW PRESSURE EXITS INTO THE CANADIAN
PRAIRIES. ON AND OFF THUNDERSTORMS BECOME MORE LIKELY DURING THIS
TIME.
DDV
MKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
WI...NONE.
LM...NONE.
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