043
FXUS63 KMKX 010357
AFDMKX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MILWAUKEE/SULLIVAN WI
1057 PM CDT WED SEP 30 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- MODERATE TO HEAVY RAIN WILL SPREAD INTO SOUTHERN WISCONSIN
MOSTLY AFTER 3 AM CDT THURSDAY AND LAST THROUGH THE MORNING.
ON AVERAGE, 1.5 TO 2.25 INCHES OF RAIN IS FORECAST THROUGH
THURSDAY, BUT MUCH LESS TOWARD CENTRAL WI. URBAN AND SMALL
STREAM FLOODING AND ISOLATED FLASH FLOODING WILL BE POSSIBLE
WHERE LOCALLY HIGHER RAIN AMOUNTS OCCUR. OTHERWISE, RISES IN
RIVERS AND LOW LYING AREAS ARE EXPECTED.
SHORT TERM
ISSUED 1057 PM CDT WED SEP 30 2026
TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT:
THE FORECAST FOR WIDESPREAD MDT TO HEAVY RAINFALL REMAINS ON
TRACK FOR LATE TNT-THU AM. A WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE OVER CENTRAL
KS WILL TRACK TO ERN IA BY 12Z THU, WHILE A SHORTWAVE TROUGH
OVER NE INTO NW IA APPROACHES SRN WI DURING THIS TIME. THE NOSE
OF A SWLY LOW LEVEL JET OF 40-45 KT WILL SET UP OVER FAR SRN WI.
DEEP, SLOPING FRONTOGENESIS WILL DEVELOP ACROSS THE REGION AS
THE LOW AND AFOREMENTIONED FEATURES SHIFT ACROSS SRN WI INTO
LOWER MI ON THU. THE STRONG LIFT WILL OCCUR WITHIN A SATURATED
TROPOSPHERE AND PWATS AROUND 2 INCHES. THUS HIGH PRECIPITATION
EFFICIENCY IS EXPECTED. THE MEAN FLOW WILL BE FAIRLY FAST, BUT
SEVERAL HOURS OF MDT TO HEAVY RAIN WILL STILL OCCUR FOR MOST
LOCATIONS. RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 1.5-2.25 INCHES ARE FORECAST WITH
LOCALLY MORE. URBAN AND SMALL STREAM FLOODING AND ISOLATED FLASH
FLOODING WILL BE POSSIBLE WHERE THOSE LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS
OCCUR. THERE IS SOME CONFIDENCE BASED ON CAMS THAT A BAND OF
THE HEAVIEST RAIN WILL STRETCH FROM FAR SW WI INTO THE MADISON
AREA. RAINFALL AMOUNTS TOWARD CENTRAL WI WILL BE MUCH LESS. THE
WIDESPREAD RAIN WILL CONTINUE OVER SE WI FOR THE AFTERNOON
FOLLOWED BY COOLING AND DRYING FROM THE NORTH AFTERWARD. SKIES
WILL GRADUALLY CLEAR THU NT ON NLY WINDS AND COLD AND DRY AIR
ADVECTION. TEMPS WILL REMAIN IN THE 60S TNT AND TOMORROW THEN
FALL INTO THE MIDDLE 40S TO LOWER 50S BY SUNRISE FRIDAY.
GEHRING
LONG TERM
ISSUED 1057 PM CDT WED SEP 30 2026
FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY:
THE MODELS HAVE FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT FOR THE OVERALL PATTERN
THIS WEEKEND INTO NEXT WEEK. NLY WINDS AND WEAKENING COLD
ADVECTION WILL PREVAIL ON FRI FOLLOWED BY HIGH PRESSURE AROUND
1027 MB FOR FRI NT. AFTER A RELATIVELY COOL DAY IN THE LOWER
60S, LOW TEMPS WILL FALL INTO THE MIDDLE 30S TO LOWER 40S INLAND
FROM THE LAKE. PATCHY FROST WILL BE POSSIBLE AROUND SUNRISE SAT
NORTH OF MADISON.
A WEST TO NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT WILL PREVAIL FOR THE WEEKEND
INTO THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. A SHORTWAVE TROUGH AND SFC LOW
WILL TRACK ACROSS THE CANADIAN BORDER OVER THE GREAT PLAINS ON
SAT, WITH THE LOW TO DEEPEN AND TRACK INTO CENTRAL ONTARIO FOR
SAT NT. SLY WINDS AND WARM ADVECTION WILL RETURN TO SRN WI
FOLLOWED BY A DRY COLD FRONT SUN AM. HIGH TEMPS WILL WARM
THROUGH THE 60S FOR THE WEEKEND.
A SURFACE RIDGE WILL PASS ON MON FOLLOWED BY ANOTHER LOW ACROSS
CENTRAL CANADA BRINGING SLY WINDS TO SRN WI ON TUE. RELATIVELY
COOL TEMPS ON MON WILL WARM A BIT FOR TUE, FOLLOWED BY ANOTHER
COLD FRONT AND UPPER TROUGH PASSAGE ON WED. THERE IS UNCERTAINTY
ON WHETHER THIS FRONT WILL BE A DRY PASSAGE, BUT THE FORECAST IS
DRY AT THIS TIME.
GEHRING
AVIATION
ISSUED 1057 PM CDT WED SEP 30 2026
CIGS WELL BELOW 1 KFT WILL DEVELOP THIS EVENING AND LAST THROUGH
THU AM, THEN LINGERING INTO THE AFTERNOON OVER SE WI. VSBYS OF
2-4SM VIA BR AND DRIZZLE WILL PREVAIL THIS EVENING THEN DROPPING
TO 1-2SM VIA BR AND WIDESPREAD RAINFALL DURING THE OVERNIGHT AND
MUCH OF THU AM. LOCAL 1/2SM FG WILL BE POSSIBLE DURING THIS
TIME. THE WIDESPREAD RAIN WILL CONTINUE OVER SE WI DURING THE
AFTERNOON WITH LOW CIGS AND VSBYS CONTINUING. CIGS AND VSBYS WILL
THEN RISE TO MVFR THEN VFR FROM NW TO SE ACROSS SRN WI FROM
LATE AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING.
GEHRING
MARINE
ISSUED 1057 PM CDT WED SEP 30 2026
MODEST SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL CONTINUE TONIGHT THEN SHIFT WESTERLY
AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT BY THE MIDDLE OF THURSDAY. EXPECT WINDS TO
THEN SHIFT NORTHWEST WITH THE FRONTAL PASSAGE THURSDAY AFTERNOON.
MODEST TO BREEZY NORTHERLY WINDS ARE THEN FORECAST THURSDAY NIGHT
AND FRIDAY. STRONG HIGH PRESSURE AROUND 30.4 INCHES WILL THEN OVERSPREAD
THE GREAT LAKES FRIDAY NIGHT. THIS SHOULD BRING LIGHTER WINDS TO
THE LAKE FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY.
A FAST-MOVING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM AROUND 29.8 INCHES SHOULD MOVE
ACROSS OR NORTH OF LAKE SUPERIOR SATURDAY NIGHT, WITH HIGH
PRESSURE AROUND 30.4 INCHES MOVING SOUTHEAST INTO THE REGION BY
EARLY NEXT WEEK. SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST WINDS SATURDAY NIGHT SHOULD
VEER NORTHWEST TO NORTH SUNDAY INTO MONDAY ACROSS LAKE MICHIGAN.
GEHRING
MKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
WI...NONE.
LM...NONE.
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