937
FXUS63 KMKX 112111
AFDMKX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MILWAUKEE/SULLIVAN WI
311 PM CST SUN JAN 11 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- MILD TO START THE WORKWEEK, WITH THE WARMTH PEAKING ON TUESDAY
(HIGHS IN THE MID 40S).
- THE NEXT LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM BRINGS 20-45% LIGHT RAIN CHANCES
ON TUESDAY, FOLLOWED BY 35-75% LIGHT SNOW CHANCES WEDNESDAY.
- TURNING COLDER FOR THE SECOND HALF OF THE WEEK INTO NEXT
WEEKEND.
SHORT TERM
ISSUED 310 PM CST SUN JAN 11 2026
TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT:
THERE REMAINS SOME SLIGHT POTENTIAL (~30% CHANCE) THAT SOME SNOW
FLURRIES COULD DEVELOP OVER PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN WI THIS
EVENING (ESPECIALLY EAST-CENTRAL WI) BETWEEN 8 PM AND 11 PM CST
THIS EVENING, DRIVEN BY SOME WEAK 500MB PVA AND 800-700MB WAA
INTERACTING WITH THE SHALLOW MOIST LAYER (CONTAINING THE
CURRENTLY OBSERVED STRATOCUMULUS CLOUDS ACROSS THE REGION). THAT
BEING SAID, WITH THE CLOUD BASES GENERALLY 2,000 FT ABOVE GROUND
OR HIGHER, AND PLENTY OF DRY AIR BOTH ABOVE AND BENEATH THIS
LAYER, THE ODDS OF THIS HAPPENING HAVE DECREASED SINCE THE PRIOR
FORECAST ITERATION. EITHER WAY, NO MEASURABLE ACCUMULATION WILL
COME OF IT.
A SOUTHWEST BREEZE DEVELOPS TONIGHT, WORKING WITH THE LINGERING
CLOUD COVER TO HOLD OVERNIGHT LOW TEMPERATURES TO THE MID 20S
TONIGHT (DESPITE OUR THIN SNOW PACK). CONTINUED DRY AND QUIET
WEATHER ON TAP FOR MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT, WITH HIGHS AROUND 40
DEGREES AND LOWS AROUND FREEZING.
SHEPPARD
LONG TERM
ISSUED 310 PM CST SUN JAN 11 2026
TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY:
THE UNSEASONABLY WARM TEMPERATURES PEAK ON TUESDAY, WITH HIGHS
IN THE MID 40S EXPECTED. A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM TRACKS EAST
ACROSS LAKE SUPERIOR TUESDAY AFTERNOON, WITH 20-45% RAIN CHANCES
ACROSS THE REGION TUESDAY MORNING AND AFTERNOON (HIGHEST IN
EAST-CENTRAL WI), WITH A LULL IN THE RAIN CHANCES POSSIBLE
TUESDAY EVENING (DUE TO A DRY SLOT RESOLVED ON MOST MODEL
GUIDANCE). LATE TUESDAY NIGHT, PRECIPITATION CHANCES BEGIN TO
INCREASE AGAIN AS A POTENT COLD FRONT AND THE 500MB TROUGH SWING
THROUGH, WITH A RAIN/SNOW TRANSITION EXPECTED TO COMPLETE AT
SOME POINT WEDNESDAY MORNING. THE DAYTIME HOURS OF WEDNESDAY
FEATURE A 35-75% CHANCE FOR LIGHT SNOWFALL (HIGHEST FURTHER
EAST IN WISCONSIN). ECMWF-ENS AND GEFS TOTAL SNOW PLUMES
DESCRIBE THE SYNOPTIC SNOWFALL WITH THIS SYSTEM AS RELATIVELY
LIGHT (WITH THE PLUMES CENTERED AROUND A HALF INCH TO 1 INCH
SNOWFALL, AND SOME OF THE MEMBERS MAKING UP THE HIGHER
PERCENTILES LEANING TOWARDS 2-3 INCHES). PRECIP CHANCES TAPER
WEDNESDAY NIGHT, BUT WITH 1 CAVEAT, THE DUE NORTH WINDS ON THE
BACK SIDE OF THE LOW COUPLED WITH LAKE SURFACE TO 850MB DELTA T
WOULD SUGGEST THE FORMATION OF A LAKE EFFECT SNOW BAND (ORIENTED
NORTH-SOUTH SOMEWHERE TOWARDS THE SOUTHERN END OF THE LAKE).
EXACTLY WHERE THIS BAND SETS UP IS UNCERTAIN, BUT WE WILL HAVE
TO MONITOR THE EXACT WIND DIRECTIONS TO ENSURE THAT IT DOESN'T
MEANDER WEST AND CLIP FAR SOUTHEASTERN WISCONSIN. MOST ENSEMBLES
TAKE THE LAKE EFFECT BAND AND IT'S HEAVIER ACCUMULATIONS WELL
CLEAR OF OUR CWA.
COOLER TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED FOR THE LATE HALF OF THE WORK
WEEK, WITH DAYTIME HIGHS IN THE 20S TO AROUND 30. ANOTHER LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM WITH ADDITIONAL SNOW CHANCES (POSSIBLY A CLIPPER
SYSTEM) IS POSSIBLE LATER THIS WEEK, FOLLOWED BY COLDER
TEMPERATURES INTO THE UPCOMING WEEKEND.
SHEPPARD
AVIATION
ISSUED 310 PM CST SUN JAN 11 2026
1,700 TO 3,000 FT AGL CLOUDS BETWEEN SCT AND BKN COVERAGE ARE
PRESENT AT THE MOMENT (AS OF 230 PM CST), THIS WILL CONTINUE TO
LEAD TO PERIODS OF MVFR CLOUD CEILINGS THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF
THE AFTERNOON. ADDITIONAL BKN HIGH ALTITUDE CLOUDS WILL BE
MOVING THROUGH AT TIMES TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT.
INTERMITTENT MVFR CEILINGS PERSIST INTO THIS EVENING, THOUGH THE
GENERAL MODEL CONSENSUS (FOR NOW) IS A GRADUAL LIFTING AND
SCATTERING, LEADING TO PREDOMINANTLY VFR LATER TONIGHT. SOME
SCATTERED SNOW FLURRIES MAY DEVELOP OVER EAST-CENTRAL WI BETWEEN
8 AND 11 PM CST THIS EVENING (THIS IS INCLUDED AS A PROB30 IN
THE KSBM TAF AT THE MOMENT, DRY WEATHER FOR THE OTHER TAF
SITES).
40 TO 45 KT SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS AT 2,000 FT AGL THIS EVENING AND
TONIGHT WILL LEAD TO SOME LLWS, WHICH HAS BEEN ADDED TO TAFS.
FOR THE SURFACE WIND FIELD, LIGHT WESTERLIES EXPECTED THIS
AFTERNOON, SOUTHWEST AROUND 10 KT TONIGHT WITH A FEW ~20-25 KT
GUSTS MANAGING TO MIX DOWN FROM THE SHEAR LAYER AT TIMES.
SHEPPARD
MARINE
ISSUED 310 PM CST SUN JAN 11 2026
BROAD HIGH PRESSURE AROUND 30.5 INCHES OVER THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI
RIVER VALLEY WILL WORK WITH LOW PRESSURE AROUND 29.5 INCHES OVER
HUDSON BAY TO DRIVE SOUTHWEST TO WEST WINDS OVER LAKE MICHIGAN
TONIGHT. FROM LATE THIS EVENING THROUGH LATE TONIGHT, A SURFACE
PRESSURE TROUGH EXTENDING SOUTH OF THE LOW WILL ACCELERATE THESE
WINDS (TO AROUND 30 KT AT TIMES). WINDS GRADUALLY DECELERATE
THROUGH THE DAYTIME HOURS OF MONDAY.
BREEZY SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST WINDS ARE EXPECTED TUESDAY AHEAD OF
ANOTHER LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM AROUND 29.3 INCHES. THIS LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM WILL TRACK EAST ACROSS LAKE SUPERIOR TUESDAY AFTERNOON,
SHIFTING WINDS TO NORTHWESTERLY TUESDAY NIGHT. THERE IS POTENTIAL
FOR NORTH TO NORTHWESTERLY GALES BEHIND THE ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT
WEDNESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT. MODERATE FREEZING SPRAY MAY
OCCUR WITH THESE GALES.
SHEPPARD
MKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
WI...NONE.
LM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY...LMZ643-LMZ644-LMZ645-LMZ646...9 PM
SUNDAY TO 6 AM MONDAY.
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