080  
FXUS63 KMKX 121514  
AFDMKX  
 
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION  
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MILWAUKEE/SULLIVAN WI  
1014 AM CDT FRI APR 12 2024  
   
KEY MESSAGES
 
 
- GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS ARE EXPECTED TODAY, WITH GALES OVER THE  
OPEN WATERS.  
 
- ABOVE NORMAL TEMPS EXPECTED FOR THE WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT  
WEEK.  
 
- KEEPING AN EYE ON THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL NEXT TUESDAY.  
 

 
   
UPDATE
 
 
ISSUED 1015 AM CDT FRI APR 12 2024  
 
GUSTS OF UP TO 30 KNOTS HAVE BEEN OBSERVED ACROSS SOUTHEAST  
WISCONSIN, KEEPING THE FORECAST ON TRACK FOR TODAY. LOOKING AT  
THE HIGHER LIKELIHOOD OF GUSTS PERSISTING OVER THE NORTHERN  
THIRD OF THE LAKE GOING INTO THE EVENING TONIGHT, WITH BUILDING  
HIGH PRESSURE BRINGING LIGHTER, SOUTHERLY WINDS GOING INTO THE  
WEEKEND. ELSE, THE FORECAST REMAINS ON TRACK.  
 
GERTONSON  
 

 
   
SHORT TERM
 
 
ISSUED 1015 AM CDT FRI APR 12 2024  
 
TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT:  
 
THE MAIN STORY FOR SOUTHERN WI TODAY IS THE WIND. GUSTY  
NORTHWEST WINDS WILL DEVELOP AS SOON AS WE START MIXING THIS  
MORNING DUE TO LOW PRESSURE DEEPENING OVER FAR SOUTHERN ONTARIO.  
THE WIND INCREASE IS A LITTLE DELAYED FROM THE FORECAST, BUT  
CONFIDENCE IN DEVELOPING IS HIGH. GUSTS UP TO 35 MPH ARE LIKELY  
FROM LATE MORNING THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON. WINDS WILL QUICKLY  
DIMINISH THIS EVENING AS WE DECOUPLE AND THE PRESSURE GRADIENT  
RELAXES.  
 
HIGH PRESSURE WILL WEDGE INTO SOUTHERN WI TONIGHT INTO SATURDAY  
MORNING. WEAK LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPING OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS  
IN RESPONSE TO A SHORTWAVE WILL TURN WINDS TO SOUTHERLY BY  
SATURDAY AFTERNOON. MUCH WARMER AIR WILL LIFT INTO THE AREA AND  
HOUR HIGHS SHOULD BE RIGHT AROUND 70. THERE IS A 30 PERCENT  
CHANCE OF EXCEEDING 70 WEST OF MADISON AND JANESVILLE. OUR  
FORECAST FALLS WITHIN THE 50TH TO 75TH PERCENTILE OF FORECAST  
MODELS. STEADY SSW WINDS WILL PERSIST THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT.  
 
CRONCE  
 

 
   
LONG TERM
 
 
ISSUED 433 AM CDT FRI APR 12 2024  
 
SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY:  
 
SUNDAY WILL BE WARMER, CLOSER TO 75, WITH THE CHANCE OF  
REACHING 70 OR HIGHER OVER 90 PERCENT FOR INLAND AREAS. WINDS  
WILL BE LIGHTER AND WESTERLY IN THE MORNING, THEN BECOME  
NORTHERLY IN THE AFTERNOON. A BACK DOOR COLD FRONT WILL RACE  
DOWN LAKE MICHIGAN AND DROP LAKESHORE TEMPERATURES INTO THE 40S  
BY LATE AFTERNOON. THE COOLER AIR WILL QUICKLY PUSH INLAND  
SUNDAY EVENING, WITH LOWS IN THE 40S.  
 
THANKFULLY, SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL KICK BACK IN AS STRONGER LOW  
PRESSURE DEVELOPS IN THE LEE OF THE COLORADO ROCKIES. HIGHS  
MONDAY WILL BE BACK INTO THE LOWER TO MID 70S FOR INLAND AREAS.  
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO SPREAD INTO SOUTHERN  
WI ALONG THE WARM FRONT MONDAY NIGHT. THE CLOSED UPPER LOW WILL  
TAKE ON A NEGATIVE TILT AND SWING INTO THE UPPER MIDWEST TUESDAY  
AFTERNOON. SOUTHERN WI SHOULD END UP WITHIN THE WARM SECTOR.  
MODEST CAPE UP TO 1500J/KG AND HIGH SHEAR AROUND 40 KT SUPPORT  
THE CHANCE FOR SEVERE STORMS. THE FORECAST WILL CHANGE BETWEEN  
NOW AND THEN, SO KEEP UP WITH THE LATEST EACH DAY.  
 
CRONCE  
 

 
   
AVIATION
 
 
ISSUED 1015 AM CDT FRI APR 12 2024  
 
VFR CONDITIONS WITH CURRENT CLOUDS CLEARING UPSTREAM AND  
EXTENDING SOUTHWARD. ALREADY SEEING THE DEVELOPMENT OF A CUMULUS  
FIELD TOWARDS THE NORTH, BUT ANTICIPATING CEILINGS TO REMAIN  
VFR. NORTHWESTERLY WINDS EXPECTED TO GUST UPWARD TO 35 KNOTS  
DURING THE DAY, BEFORE CALMING AND SHIFTING SOUTHERLY WITH THE  
INTRODUCTION OF HIGH PRESSURE OVERNIGHT.  
 
GERTONSON  
 

 
   
MARINE
 
 
ISSUED 433 AM CDT FRI APR 12 2024  
 
LOW PRESSURE WILL DEEPEN OVER FAR SOUTHERN ONTARIO THIS MORNING.  
GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS WILL QUICKLY BECOME GALES. HIGHEST WINDS  
UP TO 40 KT ARE EXPECTED OVER THE FAR NORTHERN AND EASTERN  
PORTIONS OF LAKE MICHIGAN LATE THIS MORNING INTO THE EARLY  
AFTERNOON. THERE IS A POSSIBILITY THAT GALES COULD HANG ON A FEW  
HOURS LONGER INTO THE EVENING FOR THE FAR NORTH, BUT OVERALL  
WINDSWILL QUICKLY DIMINISH TONIGHT. LOOK FOR WINDS TO SWITCH  
TO THE SOUTH SATURDAY AFTERNOON.  
 
A FAIRLY ABRUPT WIND SHIFT TO THE NNE IS EXPECTED SUNDAY  
AFTERNOON. WAVES AND WIND GUSTS MAY APPROACH HAZARDOUS SMALL  
CRAFT CONDITIONS FOR THE SOUTHERN NEARSHORE AREAS.  
 
SOUTHERLY GALES ARE POSSIBLE TUESDAY NIGHT AS LOW PRESSURE  
APPROACHES FROM THE PLAINS.  
 
CRONCE  
 

 
   
MKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
 
 
WI...NONE.  
LM...GALE WARNING...LMZ080-LMZ261-LMZ362-LMZ364-LMZ366-LMZ563-  
LMZ565-LMZ567-LMZ669-LMZ671-LMZ673-LMZ675-LMZ777-LMZ779-  
LMZ868-LMZ870-LMZ872-LMZ874-LMZ876-LMZ878 UNTIL 7 PM  
FRIDAY.  
 
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY...LMZ643-LMZ644-LMZ645-LMZ646 UNTIL 7 PM  
FRIDAY.  
 

 
 

 
 
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