247
FXUS63 KMKX 190614
AFDMKX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MILWAUKEE/SULLIVAN WI
114 AM CDT WED AUG 19 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- AREAS OF FOG, LOCALLY DENSE, ARE EXPECTED THROUGH SUNRISE.
- DRY AND PLEASANT CONDITIONS THROUGH THURSDAY WITH DRIER AIR IN
PLACE.
- SHOWER/STORM CHANCES RETURN THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY.
QUIET WEATHER IS EXPECTED FOR THE WEEKEND.
SHORT TERM
ISSUED 114 AM CDT WED AUG 19 2026
REST OF TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY:
WITH DEWPOINTS STILL IN THE LOWER 60S IN SOUTHERN WI AND THE RAIN-
COOLED AIR, FOG DEVELOPED QUICKLY THIS EVENING ONCE THE RAIN
ENDED. THE REASON FOR THE FOG IS THAT THE ACTUAL FRONT IS STILL
IN CENTRAL WI NEAR GREEN BAY AND STEVENS POINT. WE CAN SEE ON
SATELLITE THAT THE FOG FOCUSED OVER THE ROCK RIVER VALLEY BUT
IS SLOWLY DRIFTING EASTWARD. WITH WEBCAMS AND AUTOMATED
OBSERVING STATIONS SHOWING SPOTTY DENSE FOG AND SOMETIMES
STRATUS, I OPTED TO ISSUE A SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT RATHER
THAN A DENSE FOG ADVISORY FOR NOW AND KEEP AN EYE ON
SATELLITE/OBS TRENDS. THE WISCONSIN RIVER VALLEY AREA IS ALSO AT
RISK FOR AREAS OF DENSE FOG OVERNIGHT.
THE DRIER AIR MASS WILL FINALLY GET THROUGH SOUTHERN WI TODAY
(WED), BUT IT WILL TAKE THE WHOLE DAY FOR AREAS ALONG AND SOUTH
OF I-94 DUE TO NO OVERALL FORCING TO PUSH THE FRONT ALL THE WAY
THROUGH QUICKLY. WE CAN EXPECT LIGHT WINDS THAT BECOME NORTHERLY
IN THE AFTERNOON, WITH THE EXCEPTION OF THE LAKESHORE SEEING
ONSHORE WINDS FROM A LAKE BREEZE. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE IN
THE UPPER 70S UNDER PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES WITH DIURNAL CUMULUS
CLOUDS. LOW TEMPERATURES TONIGHT WILL BE IN THE 50S.
THURSDAY WILL BE ANOTHER NICE DAY, WEATHER-WISE. HOWEVER, A
SHORTWAVE TROUGH AND POTENTIAL AREA OF THUNDERSTORMS WILL
APPROACH FROM CENTRAL MN. IF IT HOLDS TOGETHER, THERE COULD BE
SHOWERS AND A FEW STORMS IN SOUTHERN WI EARLY FRIDAY MORNING.
CRONCE
LONG TERM
ISSUED 114 AM CDT WED AUG 19 2026
FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY:
A BROAD UPPER TROUGH WILL SET UP OVER ONTARIO AND HUDSON BAY
OVER THE WEEKEND. FRIDAY AFTERNOON LOOKS SIMILAR TO THE
ENVIRONMENT FROM YESTERDAY (TUE) WHERE WARM, MOIST ADVECTION
HELPED INCREASE OUR INSTABILITY DURING THE DAY AND A SHORTWAVE
ALSO CROSSED THE AREA. WHILE IT PROBABLY WILL NOT BE DO THAT
SAME DEGREE, IT STILL COULD BE ENOUGH FOR SHOWERS AND A FEW
STORMS TO DEVELOP OVER SOUTHERN WI. THE FOCUS IS THE MAIN
QUESTION; AN OUTFLOW BOUNDARY OR LAKE BREEZE MAY HELP STORM
DEVELOPMENT WITHIN THAT ENVIRONMENT. SHOWERS/STORMS WILL BE
POSSIBLE UNTIL THE WEAK COLD FRONT COMES THROUGH FRI AFTERNOON
OR EVENING.
SHOWER CHANCES COULD ACTUALLY LINGER INTO SATURDAY IF THE COLD
FRONT TAKES ITS TIME GETTING THROUGH SOUTHERN WI (AGAIN). THE
ECMWF IS SHOWING THIS SLOWER FRONTAL MOVEMENT. BY SUNDAY, WE
WILL BE IN A WEATHER PATTERN WITH NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT AND
SEVERAL SHORTWAVE TROUGHS TRACKING ACROSS THE UPPER MIDWEST.
THIS PATTERN CAN BRING A ROUND OF SHOWERS/STORMS EVERY OTHER DAY
OR TWO.
SUNDAY AND MONDAY WEATHER LOOKS QUIET WITH HIGH PRESSURE
DOMINATING THE UPPER GREAT LAKES. HIGHS IN THE MID-UPPER 70S
EACH DAY.
CRONCE
AVIATION
ISSUED 114 AM CDT WED AUG 19 2026
A MIX OF FOG AND STRATUS (WITH VLIFR CEILINGS) DEVELOPED WITHIN
THE ROCK RIVER VALLEY SHORTLY AFTER THE RAIN ENDED LAST
EVENING. IT IS EXPANDING EASTWARD NOW AND AFFECTING KUES AND
KMWC. THIS MAY TOWARD SUNRISE AS DRIER AIR STARTS TO MOVE IN.
ELSEWHERE, FOG IS LESS DENSE AND AN AREA OF HIGH CLOUDS IS
SPREADING IN FROM NORTHERN IA, SO EXPECT PATCHY FOG OVERNIGHT.
LOOK FOR DIURNAL CUMULUS CLOUDS WITH BASES AROUND 5000 FT TODAY
AND LIGHT WINDS. LOOK FOR A LAKE BREEZE TO DEVELOP THIS
AFTERNOON. PATCHY FOG IS NOT AS PROBABLE LATER TONIGHT DUE TO
DRIER AIR IN PLACE.
CRONCE
MARINE
ISSUED 114 AM CDT WED AUG 19 2026
LIGHT NORTHERLY WINDS WILL BECOME MORE VARIABLE TODAY AS HIGH
PRESSURE AROUND 30.0 INCHES TRACKS THROUGH THE WESTERN GREAT
LAKES THROUGH THURSDAY. SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS AND THUNDERSTORM
CHANCES RETURN LATER FRIDAY AS ANOTHER SYSTEM DRAGS A COLD FRONT
ACROSS THE UPPER GREAT LAKES REGION. HIGH PRESSURE IS EXPECTED
OVER THE REGION THIS WEEKEND.
CRONCE
MKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
WI...NONE.
LM...NONE.
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