116
FXUS63 KMKX 220017
AFDMKX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MILWAUKEE/SULLIVAN WI
717 PM CDT SUN JUN 21 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- RAIN IS ONGOING FOR AREAS ALONG AND SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 94
THROUGH TONIGHT. RAIN WILL SLOWLY END FROM WEST TO EAST
TONIGHT.
- AT LEAST MODERATE SWIM RISK IS EXPECTED FOR THE LAKE MICHIGAN
BEACHES MONDAY WITH THE POSSIBILITY FOR HIGH SWIM RISK TO
DEVELOP. KEEP OUT OF THE WATER AND AWAY FROM DANGEROUS AREAS
LIKE PIERS AND BREAKWALLS!
- CHANCES FOR THUNDERSTORMS TUE NT THROUGH WED NT.
- BELOW NORMAL TEMPS CONTINUE.
UPDATE
ISSUED 651 PM CDT SUN JUN 21 2026
AS THE SFC LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM PASSES TO THE SOUTH OF THE STATE
(IN CENTRAL ILLINOIS AND INDIANA), WE WILL REMAIN IN THE
STRATIFORM RAIN SHIELD THROUGH THE REST OF THE EVENING INTO
TONIGHT. THE BACK EDGE OF THE RAIN IS MOVING THROUGH
NORTHEASTERN IOWA. FAR SOUTHWESTERN WISCONSIN COULD SEE THIS
BACK EDGE OF THE RAIN MOVE IN NEAR SUNSET. THE LAST OF THE RAIN
IS EXPECTED TO EXIT TO THE EAST BEFORE SUNRISE MONDAY.
PATTERSON
SHORT TERM
ISSUED 124 PM CDT SUN JUN 21 2026
TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT:
DELAYED ONSET OF RAIN TODAY BUT STILL EXPECTING 60-90 PERCENT
CHANCES ALONG AND SOUTH OF A LINE FROM MADISON TO MILWAUKEE FOR
MID TO LATE AFTERNOON AND INTO THE EVENING. THE SHIELD OF RAIN
IS FINALLY MOVING INTO FAR SRN WI. A COUPLE VORTICITY MAXIMUMS
ACROSS NRN IA WILL MOVE ACROSS FAR SRN WI LATE THIS AFTERNOON
AND EVENING. THESE FEATURES AND ASSOCIATED PVA, ALONG WITH MID
LEVEL WARM ADVECTION AND FRONTOGENESIS REACHING THE WI AND IL
BORDER, MAY BE ENOUGH FOR MEASURABLE LIGHT RAIN AS FAR NORTH AS
MADISON AND MILWAUKEE. MODERATE RAINFALL RATES ARE STILL
EXPECTED AT TIMES NEAR THE IL BORDER WITH RAINFALL TOTALS AROUND
ONE HALF INCH THERE. SHOWERS WILL THEN LINGER OVER FAR SE WI IN
THE EARLY MORNING HOURS WITH SKIES BECOMING PARTLY CLOUDY
AFTERWARD. NELY SFC WINDS AND COLD ADVECTION WILL PREVAIL
THROUGH THE MORNING. SCATTERED CUMULUS TO BRIEF BROKEN CUMULUS
CAN THEN BE EXPECTED FOR MON AFTERNOON WELL INLAND FROM LAKE
MI. HIGH TEMPS WILL RANGE FROM THE 60S AT THE LAKE MI SHORELINE
WITH MIDDLE 70S WELL INLAND. A NORTH TO SOUTH SFC RIDGE WILL
THEN SLOWLY MOVE ACROSS SRN WI MON NT-TUE. HIGH TEMPS ON TUE
WILL BE SLIGHTLY HIGHER FOR TUE.
GEHRING
LONG TERM
ISSUED 124 PM CDT SUN JUN 21 2026
TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY:
A SLOW MOVING SHORTWAVE TROUGH AND WEAK SFC LOW WILL THEN TRACK
FROM SRN CANADA ACROSS THE NRN GREAT LAKES FOR WED-THU. RAIN
CHANCES OF 50-80 PERCENT WILL BEGIN TUE NT AND LAST INTO WED.
THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE DURING THIS TIME. LINGERING
PRECIPITATION IS THEN POSSIBLE THU FOLLOWED BY HIGH PRESSURE FOR
THU NT-FRI. UPPER RIDGING WILL THEN TAKE HOLD OVER THE REGION
FOR THE WEEKEND AS CYCLOGENESIS ENSUES OVER THE CANADIAN
PRAIRIES. A DRY ESELY FLOW WILL LIMIT RAIN CHANCES WITH POSSIBLY
SOME INCREASE IN MOISTURE BY SUNDAY. SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL TEMPS
FOR THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK MAY EVENTUALLY BECOME ABOVE NORMAL BY
SUNDAY.
GEHRING
AVIATION
ISSUED 651 PM CDT SUN JUN 21 2026
MVFR TO VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD.
WIDESPREAD ALONG AND SOUTH OF THE INTERSTATE 94 CORRIDOR WILL
SLOWLY END FROM WEST TO EAST THIS EVENING INTO TONIGHT. MVFR
CEILINGS AROUND 1-3 KFT WILL BE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE RAIN.
VISIBILITIES ARE EXPECTED TO BE 4 SM OR HIGHER FOR ANY TERMINAL
EXPERIENCING RAIN. TERMINALS NORTH OF INTERSTATE 94 ARE EXPECTED
TO STAY DRY WITH LARGELY VFR CONDITIONS. OVERCAST SKIES ARE
EXPECTED TO PERSIST ACROSS SOUTHERN WISCONSIN UNTIL MONDAY
MORNING. MID TO HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS WILL START TO CLEAR FROM THE
NORTHWEST TO THE SOUTHEAST AROUND SUNRISE MONDAY MORNING. PARTLY
CLOUDY SKIES ARE EXPECTED MONDAY WITH SOME DIURNAL CUMULUS
CLOUDS AROUND 4-6 KFT. THERE IS SOME UNCERTAINTY IN HOW
EXPANSIVE ANY DIURNAL CUMULUS CLOUDS COULD BECOME.
THE LINGERING LIGHT SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL EVENTUALLY TURN TO
EASTERLY THEN BECOME LIGHT AND VARIABLE BY AROUND MIDNIGHT
TONIGHT. LIGHT EAST TO NORTHEAST WIND ARE EXPECTED TO MONDAY.
WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO BE AT THEIR STRONGEST ALONG LAKE MICHIGAN
WITH SUSTAINED WIND AROUND 10-15 KTS AND GUSTS UP TO 20 KTS.
LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS ARE EXPECTED AGAIN MONDAY NIGHT.
PATTERSON
MARINE
ISSUED 124 PM CDT SUN JUN 21 2026
LOW PRESSURE AROUND 29.7 INCHES WILL TRACK EASTWARD FROM
NORTHEAST MISSOURI INTO WESTERN OHIO BY MONDAY MORNING. THIS
WILL BRING LIGHT EASTERLY WINDS THIS AFTERNOON BECOMING BREEZY
NORTHEAST TO NORTH WINDS OVER THE SOUTHERN PORTION OF THE LAKE
TONIGHT AND MONDAY. LIGHTER NORTHERLY WINDS RETURN LATE MONDAY
EVENING INTO TUESDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE AROUND 30.1 INCHES BUILDS
INTO THE REGION. A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY MAY BE NEEDED ON MONDAY
FROM SHEBOYGAN TO WINTHROP HARBOR IL, BUT THERE IS STILL SOME
UNCERTAINTY WITH THE MAGNITUDE OF NLY WINDS AND RESULTANT WAVE
HEIGHTS.
GEHRING
MKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
WI...NONE.
LM...NONE.
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