135
FXUS63 KMKX 270015
AFDMKX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MILWAUKEE/SULLIVAN WI
715 PM CDT MON OCT 26 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- TEMPERATURES GRADUALLY WARM UP BY WEDNESDAY AND REMAIN MILD
INTO THE REST OF THE WEEK AND THIS WEEKEND.
- CHANCES (30 TO 60 PERCENT) FOR SHOWERS LATER WEDNESDAY NIGHT
INTO EARLY THURSDAY MORNING. A FEW THUNDERSTORMS MAY OCCUR.
- MORE CHANCES (30 TO 50 PERCENT) FOR SHOWERS FRIDAY INTO
FRIDAY NIGHT, AND AT TIMES THIS WEEKEND (20 TO 40 PERCENT).
UPDATE
ISSUED 715 PM CDT MON OCT 26 2026
SPRINKLES REMAIN POSSIBLE ACROSS THE WESTERN AND NORTHERN
PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA THIS EVENING AS UPPER LEVEL PVA
MOVES THROUGH THE STATE. THE PVA WILL BE THE MAIN DRIVER OF ANY
LINGERING AND DIMINISHED SHOWERS IN SOUTHERN WISCONSIN. WHILE
THE BETTER LIFT, MID LEVEL FRONTOGENESIS AND MOISTURE REMAIN TO
THE NORTH IN MINNESOTA AND CENTRAL AND NORTHERN WISCONSIN. ANY
SPRINKLES/DRIZZLE THAT MOVES IN IS EXPECTED TO BE SHORT LIVED
AND LIGHT. CHANCES WHILE LOW AROUND 10% OR LESS WILL REMAIN
THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS INTO TUESDAY.
PATTERSON
SHORT TERM
ISSUED 215 PM CDT MON OCT 26 2026
TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT:
SOME SHOWERS IN FAR NORTHERN PARTS OF THE AREA WILL SHIFT
NORTHEAST OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS, WITH ADDITIONAL SPRINKLES
POSSIBLE OVER MAINLY NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE AREA THROUGH LATER
THIS AFTERNOON. THIS IS BEING HELPED ALONG BY SOME MODEST 850
MB FRONTOGENESIS RESPONSE AND SOME WEAK 500 MB VORTICITY MAXIMA
SHIFTING THROUGH THE REGION. FORECAST SOUNDINGS ARE SHOWING
ENOUGH MOISTURE FOR SOME BRIEF SPRINKLES OR SHOWERS IN THESE
AREAS.
THE MAIN AREA OF WARM AIR ADVECTION AND WARM FRONTAL
PRECIPITATION SHOULD REMAIN NORTHWEST OF THE AREA TONIGHT INTO
TUESDAY, AS MODEST WARM AIR ADVECTION DEVELOPS OVER THE AREA.
THIS WARM AIR ADVECTION AND AN APPROACHING 500 MB SHORTWAVE
TROUGH COULD SUPPORT SOME SPRINKLES TUESDAY INTO TUESDAY NIGHT,
IF ENOUGH LOW LEVEL MOISTURE DEVELOPS. FOR NOW, LEFT THE
FORECAST DRY AS THERE MAY NOT BE ENOUGH MOISTURE TO SUPPORT
THIS.
MIDDLE TO HIGH CLOUDS SHOULD LINGER ACROSS THE REGION INTO
TUESDAY, WITH SOME PEAKS OF SUN AT TIMES ON TUESDAY. GUSTY
NORTHEAST WINDS INTO TONIGHT SHOULD VEER EAST LATER TONIGHT AND
SOUTHEAST ON TUESDAY. LOWS IN THE 40S ARE EXPECTED TONIGHT, WITH
HIGHS INTO THE UPPER 60S INLAND ON TUESDAY, WITH ONSHORE WINDS
KEEPING UPPER 50S TO LOWER 60S CLOSER TO LAKE MICHIGAN. MILDER
LOWS IN THE LOWER 50S ARE ANTICIPATED TUESDAY NIGHT.
WOOD
LONG TERM
ISSUED 215 PM CDT MON OCT 26 2026
WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY:
SOUTH WINDS INTO WEDNESDAY WILL CONTINUE TO BRING WARMER
TEMPERATURES INTO THE AREA, WITH HIGHS RISING INTO THE LOWER TO
PERHAPS MIDDLE 70S. IT MAY BE A LITTLE COOLER NEAR THE LAKE IF
WINDS TURN SOUTHEAST IN THE AFTERNOON. MORE SUNSHINE SHOULD
OCCUR AS THE AREA GETS MORE INTO THE WARM SECTOR.
MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW THE COLD FRONT SLOWLY SHIFTING
SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE AREA WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY MORNING,
SHIFTING OUT OF THE AREA DURING THE AFTERNOON. THIS FEATURE
SHOULD HELP BRING A PERIOD OF SHOWERS (30 TO 60 PERCENT CHANCES)
TO THE AREA, MAINLY LATER WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY THURSDAY
MORNING. A FEW THUNDERSTORMS MAY OCCUR AS WELL, WITH VERY WEAK
ELEVATED CAPE. RAINFALL AMOUNTS SHOULD BE FAIRLY LIGHT. HIGHS
SHOULD STILL GET INTO THE UPPER 60S TO LOWER 70S THURSDAY AS THE
FRONT MOVES THROUGH, THEN COOLS DOWN INTO THE 40S THURSDAY
NIGHT WITH HIGH PRESSURE MOVING THROUGH THE REGION.
500 MB CLUSTER ANALYSIS THEN SHOWS AN ANOMALOUS RIDGE AXIS
GRADUALLY BUILDING ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES REGION OVER THE
WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. THIS SHOULD CONTINUE TO FAVOR
MILDER TEMPERATURES DURING THIS PERIOD, WHICH ARE SUPPORTED BY
ENSEMBLE MEMBERS. THERE SHOULD BE CHANCES (30 TO 50 PERCENT) FOR
SHOWERS AT TIMES FRIDAY INTO FRIDAY NIGHT, AND 20 TO 40 PERCENT
CHANCES OVER THE WEEKEND, AS LOW PRESSURE PASSES BY TO THE
SOUTH OF THE AREA. ENSEMBLE MEMBERS ARE SHOWING A TREND FOR A
WETTER PERIOD THIS WEEKEND, THOUGH THERE MAY BE BREAKS AT TIMES.
WOOD
AVIATION
ISSUED 715 PM CDT MON OCT 26 2026
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PERSIST THROUGH THE PERIOD. MID
TO HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE THROUGH SOUTHERN
WISCONSIN FROM EAST TO WEST. ISOLATED DRIZZLE/SPRINKLES WILL BE
POSSIBLE AT TIMES ACROSS PORTIONS OF SOUTHWESTERN AND SOUTH
CENTRAL WISCONSIN THROUGH TUESDAY.
BREEZY NORTHEAST TO EAST WINDS THIS EVENING WILL DIMINISH OVER
THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS. LIGHTER EAST WINDS WILL TURN TO
SOUTHEASTERLY BY TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND BECOME BREEZY AGAIN.
HEADING INTO TUESDAY NIGHT WINDS WILL WEAKEN AGAIN AND TURN TO
SOUTHERLY.
PATTERSON
MARINE
ISSUED 215 PM CDT MON OCT 26 2026
HIGH PRESSURE AROUND 30.5 INCHES TRACKING FROM MANITOBA TO THE
NORTHERN GREAT LAKES REGION TONIGHT WILL SUPPORT MODEST TO
BREEZY NORTHEAST TO EAST WINDS. LOOK FOR WINDS TO BECOME
SOUTHEAST ON TUESDAY, AS LOW PRESSURE AROUND 30.0 INCHES TRACKS
FROM SOUTHWEST MINNESOTA TO THE LAKE SUPERIOR REGION.
MODEST SOUTH WINDS ARE EXPECTED FOR TUESDAY NIGHT INTO
WEDNESDAY, AS THE NEXT LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM AROUND 29.9 INCHES
TAKES A SIMILAR PATH ACROSS THE MIDWEST. A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE
ACROSS THE LAKE WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY, WITH WINDS
SHIFTING TO THE NORTHWEST AND NORTH BEHIND IT THURSDAY NIGHT
INTO FRIDAY.
A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT INTO EARLY TUESDAY AFTERNOON
SOUTH OF NORTH POINT LIGHTHOUSE, AND NORTH OF THERE UNTIL LATER
TUESDAY EVENING. GUSTY NORTHEAST TO EAST WINDS TONIGHT WILL
BRING BUILDING WAVES. WINDS WILL BECOME SOUTHEAST ON TUESDAY,
WITH WAVES REMAINING ELEVATED.
WOOD
MKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
WI...NONE.
LM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY...LMZ643-LMZ644 UNTIL 10 PM TUESDAY.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY...LMZ645-LMZ646 UNTIL 1 PM TUESDAY.
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