337
FXUS63 KMKX 200317
AFDMKX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MILWAUKEE/SULLIVAN WI
917 PM CST MON JAN 19 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- WIND CHILLS IN THE TEENS BELOW ZERO ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE
INTO TUESDAY MORNING.
- A GALE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR ALL OF LAKE MICHIGAN
THROUGH LATE THIS AFTERNOON. A HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING
REMAINS IN EFFECT AS WELL THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING.
- ACCUMULATING SNOW IS EXPECTED TUESDAY NIGHT (90% CHANCES),
WITH AMOUNTS IN THE BALLPARK OF 2 TO 4 INCHES. THERE ARE
10-40% CHANCES FOR LIGHT SNOW TO LINGER (OR BRIEFLY REDEVELOP)
WEDNESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY EVENING.
- BITTER COLD TEMPERATURES AND WIND CHILLS ARE LOOKING LIKELY
THURSDAY NIGHT INTO THE WEEKEND.
UPDATE
ISSUED 920 PM CST MON JAN 19 2026
FORECAST REMAINS ON TRACK THIS EVENING. HIGH PRESSURE IS MOVING
IN FROM THE NORTHERN PLAINS, AND WILL ALLOW WINDS TO CONTINUE TO
TAPER THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. UNDER MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES,
THIS WILL RESULT IN ANOTHER NIGHT OF VERY CHILLY CONDITIONS
ACROSS SOUTHERN WISCONSIN. LIGHTER OVERALL WINDS WILL KEEP WIND
CHILLS 5-10 DEGREES ABOVE LAST NIGHT'S READINGS IN MOST
LOCATIONS, WITH ALL OF THE AREA ON TRACK TO GET THROUGH THE
OVERNIGHT WITHOUT ANY COLD WEATHER HEADLINES. WILL NEVERTHELESS
BE MONITORING WIND CHILL TRENDS OVER NORTHERN COUNTIES, WHERE A
FEW LOCATIONS COULD SEE WIND CHILLS BRIEFLY DROPPING TO NEAR -20
THROUGH DAYBREAK.
QUIGLEY
SHORT TERM
ISSUED 250 PM CST MON JAN 19 2026
TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY:
BREEZY WEST WINDS CONTINUE TO GRADUALLY SUBSIDE THROUGH THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING AS HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES INTO THE SOUTHERN
PLAINS / LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY, WITH CONTINUED DRY WEATHER
THROUGH TONIGHT AND THE DAYTIME HOURS OF TUESDAY. THIN HIGH
ALTITUDE CLOUD COVER WILL MOVE THROUGH THE REGION AT TIMES
TONIGHT, BUT WITH PERIODS OF CLEAR SKIES ALLOWING FOR PLENTY OF
RADIATIONAL COOLING (OVERNIGHT LOW TEMPS IN THE SINGLE DIGITS
BELOW ZERO TONIGHT) ALLOWING WIND CHILLS TO REMAIN IN THE TEENS
BELOW ZERO INTO TUESDAY MORNING. DESPITE PLENTY OF SUNSHINE
TUESDAY MORNING, TEMPERATURES ARE SLOW TO RESPOND DUE TO THE
EXISTING SNOW COVER (HIGH TEMPS IN THE MID TEENS TUESDAY
AFTERNOON, WITH WIND CHILLS IN THE POSITIVE SINGLE DIGITS TO
AROUND 10). CLOUD COVER THEN BEGINS TO INCREASE TUESDAY
AFTERNOON AHEAD OF THE NEXT SYSTEM.
A CLIPPER SYSTEM TRACKS EASTWARD ACROSS THE REGION TUESDAY
NIGHT, WITH AN ARRIVAL WINDOW OF ROUGHLY 8 PM TO 11 PM CST
TUESDAY EVENING. BETWEEN THEN AND AROUND DAYBREAK WEDNESDAY
MORNING, ROUGHLY 2 TO 4 INCHES OF SNOWFALL IS EXPECTED, WITH A
VERY LIGHT AND POWDERY TEXTURE (HIGH SLR). MOST MODELS RESOLVE A
WEAK DRY SLOT WRAPPING INTO THE SYSTEM (AND PASSING OVERHEAD)
THROUGH THE DAYTIME HOURS OF WEDNESDAY, LEADING TO A LULL IN THE
SNOW. WE DID LEAVE 10-35% CHANCES FOR CONTINUED LIGHT SNOW IN
THE FORECAST THROUGH THE DAYTIME WEDNESDAY IN CASE THE SYSTEM'S
500MB PVA WERE TO PRODUCE SOME ADDITIONAL LIGHT ACCUMULATIONS.
45% LIGHT SNOW CHANCES RETURN ON THE BACK SIDE OF THE CLIPPER
SYSTEM AS IT'S ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT SWINGS THROUGH WEDNESDAY
EVENING (DISCUSSED IN THE LONG TERM SECTION).
STAY TUNED TO TUESDAY NIGHT'S SNOW FORECAST IN CASE DETAILS
CHANGE. THE LATEST MODEL GUIDANCE HAS TRENDED FURTHER AND
FURTHER SOUTH WITH THE AXIS OF HIGHEST SNOWFALL (PLACING IT MORE
OR LESS OVERHEAD), THOUGH THIS TREND COULD CERTAINLY CONTINUE OR
REVERSE.
SHEPPARD
LONG TERM
ISSUED 250 PM CST MON JAN 19 2026
WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY:
EARLY IN THE EVENING THERE MAY BE SOME ADDITIONAL LIGHT SNOW ACROSS
PARTS OF SOUTHERN WI AS A COLD FRONT SWINGS THROUGH THE REGION. SOME
UPPER LEVEL PVA/MOISTURE, CLOSER TO AROUND 600MB ACCORDING TO
FORECAST SOUNDINGS AND SOME ADDITIONAL FORCING AROUND 800MB IN THE
DGZ WILL BE THE MAIN FORCING MECHANISMS FOR SNOWFALL IN ADDITION TO
THE FRONT. HOWEVER, BY MID EVENING WE WILL QUICKLY START TO SEE THE
ATMOSPHERE DRY OUT AROUND US AS THE COLD FRONT USHERS IN A MUCH
COOLER AIR MASS. WEDNESDAY NIGHT MAY FEATURE SOME LINGERING FLURRIES
BUT MOSTLY DUE TO SOME LINGERING NEAR SURFACE MOISTURE WITH THE DGZ
AT OR NEAR THE SURFACE. THURSDAY MORNING FORECAST SOUNDING ACTUALLY
SHOW AN EVEN BETTER CHANCE FOR FLURRIES GIVEN SOME BETTER LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE ALL RIGHT AT THE SURFACE IN THE DGZ, DESPITE THE HIGH
PRESSURE PUSHING IN.
THE STRONGEST REGION OF HIGH PRESSURE IS NOT EXPECTED TO PUSH IN
UNTIL LATER THURSDAY/THURSDAY NIGHT. BY THEN WE WILL SEE THE
ATMOSPHERE DRY OUT SIGNIFICANTLY AS THE FRIGID AIR MASS PUSHES
IN WITH THICKNESSES IN THE 485-500DM RANGE THURSDAY NIGHT.
TEMPERATURES WILL FALL TO THE NEGATIVE TEENS THURSDAY
NIGHT/FRIDAY MORNING WITH WIND CHILLS IN THE -25 TO -35 RANGE
WITH SIMILAR CONDITIONS INTO FRIDAY NIGHT/SATURDAY MORNING.
DURING THE DAY FRIDAY WILL ALSO REMAIN FRIGID WITH MAX APPARENT
TEMPS IN THE -15 TO -25 RANGE. THIS WILL START TO IMPROVE, IF
ONLY GRADUALLY, SATURDAY NIGHT AS THE THICKNESSES ACROSS THE
REGION IMPROVE TO THE 505-515DM RANGE BY SUNDAY MORNING.
TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN FRIGID WITH WIND CHILLS SUNDAY MORNING
IN THE -20 TO -30 RANGE BUT THE GRADUAL SHIFT BACK TOWARD
SLIGHTLY WARMER TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.
OVERALL THE EXTENDED INCLUDES VERY LITTLE IN THE WAY OF
PRECIPITATION DUE TO THE EXTREMELY DRY TEMPERATURES AND COLD WITH
STRONG HIGH PRESSURE AND STRONG TROUGHING OVER THE REGION WITH NO
MOISTURE IN THE PROFILE. PRECIP CONCERNS MAY RETURN TOWARD EARLY
NEXT WEEK BUT IN ALL LIKELIHOOD WE MAY VERY WELL REMAIN DRY BEYOND
AS ADDITIONAL BOUTS OF COLD AND DRY AIR MASSES SWING THROUGH THE
REGION THOUGH THERE IS UNCERTAINTY AT THIS STAGE THAT MAY PLAY
SIGNIFICANT ROLES IN EXACTLY HOW NEXT WEEK PLAYS OUT.
KUROSKI
AVIATION
ISSUED 920 PM CST MON JAN 19 2026
VFR FLIGHT CATEGORIES PREVAIL THROUGH THE MAJORITY OF THE PERIOD
AT ALL SOUTHERN WISCONSIN TERMINALS. WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO
TAPER OVERNIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE MOVES IN FROM THE WEST. THE
HIGH WILL PROGRESS EASTWARD TOMORROW, ALLOWING WINDS TO SHIFT
OUT OF THE SOUTHWEST BY THE AFTERNOON HOURS. MID-LEVEL CLOUDS
WILL THICKEN DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON HOURS AHEAD OF AN
APPROACHING DISTURBANCE. SAID DISTURBANCE WILL BRING CHANCES FOR
SN NEAR THE END OF THE 30 HOUR PERIOD AT KMKE, AND JUST BEYOND
THE CURRENT 24 HOUR PERIOD AT ALL OTHER FIELDS. HAVE THUS
ACCOUNTED FOR SN POTENTIAL AT KMKE IN THE 00Z FORECAST, WITH
MENTIONS BECOMING NECESSARY AT OTHER TERMINALS IN THE COMING 06Z
UPDATE. EXPECT VIS REDUCTIONS TO ACCOMPANY SN, WHICH WILL LIKELY
LEAD TO PERIODS OF AT LEAST MVFR FLIGHT CATEGORIES TUESDAY
EVENING.
QUIGLEY
MARINE
ISSUED 250 PM CST MON JAN 19 2026
LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE FROM EASTERN ONTARIO TODAY INTO QUEBEC THIS
EVENING. WIDESPREAD GALES ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE REST OF THE DAY,
WITH A GALE WARNING IN EFFECT UNTIL 6 PM CST THIS EVENING FOR ALL OF
LAKE MICHIGAN. GALE WARNING IN THE NEARSHORE UNTIL 3 PM CST WITH
SMALL CRAFT THEREAFTER UNTIL 3 AM CST.
WINDS WILL WEAKEN SOMEWHAT THIS EVENING INTO EARLY TUESDAY MORNING,
AS THE LOW MOVES FAR ENOUGH AWAY WITH HIGH PRESSURE REMAINING SOUTH
OF THE REGION. WINDS WILL SHIFT SOUTHWESTERLY TUESDAY AFTERNOON, AS
THE HIGH MOVES INTO THE MID-ATLANTIC. ELEVATED WAVES AND ARRIVING
ARCTIC AIR WILL LEAD TO AREAS OF HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY THROUGH
TUESDAY MORNING. A HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT
UNTIL NOON CST TUESDAY FOR ALL OF LAKE MICHIGAN.
WEST TO SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL CONTINUE INTO WEDNESDAY, AS LOW
PRESSURE PASSES ACROSS THE LAKE. WINDS WILL INCREASE FURTHER AND
SHIFT WEST TO NORTHWEST WEDNESDAY NIGHT, AS ANOTHER ARCTIC COLD
FRONT CROSSES LAKE MICHIGAN. A FEW GALE FORCE GUSTS MAY OCCUR ON THE
EASTERN SIDE OF THE LAKE WITH SMALL CRAFT CONDITIONS LIKELY.
ARRIVING ARCTIC AIR AND ELEVATED WAVE HEIGHTS WILL SUPPORT
ADDITIONAL PERIODS OF MODERATE TO POTENTIALLY HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY
WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY.
WINDS WILL TURN NORTH TO NORTHWEST FRIDAY, AS STRONG HIGH PRESSURE
AROUND 30.8 INCHES BUILDS INTO THE NORTHERN GREAT PLAINS.
KUROSKI
MKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
WI...NONE.
LM...HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING...LMZ080-LMZ261-LMZ362-LMZ364-
LMZ366-LMZ563-LMZ565-LMZ567-LMZ669-LMZ671-LMZ673-LMZ675-
LMZ777-LMZ779-LMZ868-LMZ870-LMZ872-LMZ874-LMZ876-LMZ878
UNTIL NOON TUESDAY.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY...LMZ643-LMZ644-LMZ645-LMZ646 UNTIL 3 AM
TUESDAY.
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