195
FXUS63 KMKX 261144
AFDMKX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MILWAUKEE/SULLIVAN WI
644 AM CDT MON OCT 26 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- COOL, CRISP START TO THE WEEK WITH HIGHS TODAY IN THE 50S TO
LOW 60S. THEN MILDER, ABOVE NORMAL TEMPS THROUGH AT LEAST
MIDWEEK.
- SCATTERED SPRINKLES OR VERY LIGHT RAIN TODAY. ADDITIONAL
CHANCES RETURN WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY WITH
ADDITIONAL CHANCES THIS WEEKEND.
UPDATE
ISSUED 643 AM CDT MON OCT 26 2026
A STREAM OF VORTICITY MAXIMUMS UPSTREAM ACROSS IA, NE AND KS WILL
TRACK ACROSS SRN WI TODAY. VERY LIGHT SHOWERS OR SPRINKLES CAN
BE EXPECTED. NELY WINDS AND MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES WILL MAINTAIN A
COOLER DAY, MAINLY IN THE 50S.
GEHRING
SHORT TERM
ISSUED 1200 AM CDT MON OCT 26 2026
TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT:
COLD FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO SLIDE SOUTHWARD THROUGH THE EARLY
MORNING HOURS. EXPECT COLDER AIR TO FILTER IN BEHIND THE FRONT
AND KEEP TEMPS ON THE COOLER SIDE THROUGH THE DAY WITH
NORTHEASTERLY BREEZY WINDS. HIGHS ARE ONLY LOOKING TO CLIMB
INTO MID 50S TO LOW 60S, ESPECIALLY WITH LINGERING CLOUD COVER.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL SKIRT NORTH OVERNIGHT AND WINDS WILL DIMINISH
OVERNIGHT. STILL A COOL, CRISP FALL NIGHT WITH LOWS IN THE 40S
INTO TUESDAY MORNING. HOWEVER THESE COOLER FALL TEMPS ARE NOT
LOOKING TO STICK AROUND AS LOW-LEVEL WAA QUICKLY RETURNS TO
SOUTHERN WI AS MID-LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH TRAVERSE THE REGION
ALONG WITH A WEAK SURFACE LOW.
GIVEN THIS SYSTEM'S TRACK ON TUESDAY, EXPECT TEMPS TO WARM BACK
ABOVE NORMAL WITH DAYTIMES TEMPS IN THE 60S. WHILE PWATS DO
LOOK TO CLIMB TO AROUND 1 INCH ON TUESDAY, NOT LOOKING LIKE WE
WILL SEE PRECIP ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SYSTEM AS FORCING AND
MOISTURE ARE NOT LOOKING TO ALIGN OVER SOUTHERN WI AND BETTER
CHANCES REMAIN TO NORTH AND WEST. THUS, CONTINUE THE DRY TREND
FOR TUESDAY INTO TUESDAY NIGHT.
WAGNER
LONG TERM
ISSUED 1200 AM CDT MON OCT 26 2026
WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY:
LOOKING AT ANOTHER SURFACE LOW AND ASSOCIATED MID-LEVEL
SHORTWAVE TROUGH TO TRACK ACROSS THE REGION FOR WEDNESDAY.
AGAIN THIS SYSTEM IS TRENDING TO REMAIN JUST FAR ENOUGH WEST
AND NORTH FROM SOUTHERN WI TO LIMIT MOISTURE AND PRECIP CHANCES
FOR WEDNESDAY. STILL LOOKING AT LOW-LEVEL WAA AND ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPS FOR MIDWEEK AS WELL. AS THE LOW PRESSURE TRACKS ACROSS
ONTARIO TO HUDSON BAY REGION WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY, THE
ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT LOOKS TO DRAG ACROSS THE UPPER MIDWEST.
WHILE UPPER-LEVEL FORCING LOOKS TO REMAIN CLOSER TO THE SURFACE
LOW AND UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH TO OUR NORTH, MID-RANGE MODELS DO
PROG MOISTURE TO INCREASE IN THE WARM SECTOR. PAIR THE INCREASED
MOISTURE WITH PWATS ABOVE 1 INCH AND FORCING ALONG THE COLD
FRONT, THIS LOOKS TO BE OUR BEST CHANCE TO SEE SOME MEASURABLE
RAINFALL ACROSS SOUTHERN WI THURSDAY. BEHIND THE FRONT A COOLER
AIRMASS WILL SETTLE IN TOWARD THE END OF THE WEEK AS HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
WAGNER
AVIATION
ISSUED 643 AM CDT MON OCT 26 2026
LOCAL MVFR CIGS ACROSS SRN WI TODAY WITH SMALL POCKETS OVER
VERY LIGHT SHOWERS OR SPRINKLES. THE LOCAL MVFR CIGS MAY
CONTINUE TNT-TUE AM.
GEHRING
MARINE
ISSUED 1200 AM CDT MON OCT 26 2026
GUSTY NORTHEASTERLY WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO PICK UP THROUGH THE
MORNING AND AFTERNOON AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS BEHIND THE
OVERNIGHT COLD FRONT. GIVEN THE GUSTIER WINDS AND PERSISTENT
ONSHORE COMPONENT, EXPECT WAVES AND GUSTS TO REACH SMALL CRAFT
CONDITIONS TODAY INTO TONIGHT. THEN AS THE HIGH SHIFTS EAST AND
LOW PRESSURE BUILDS UP FROM THE PLAINS, WINDS ARE LOOKING TO
TURN SOUTHEASTERLY FOR TUESDAY WITH SMALL CRAFT CONDITIONS
PERSISTING AS WELL. SIMILAR CONDITIONS ARE LOOKING TO DEVELOP
FOR MIDWEEK BUT WITH MORE SOUTHERLY WINDS AND ADDITIONAL PERIODS
OF SMALL CRAFT CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE. THEN A COLD FRONT WILL
TRACK THROUGH LATER THIS WEEK BRINGING A RETURN OF NORTHERLY
WINDS.
WAGNER
MKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
WI...NONE.
LM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY...LMZ643-LMZ644 UNTIL 10 PM TUESDAY.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY...LMZ645-LMZ646 UNTIL 1 PM TUESDAY.
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