045
FXUS63 KMKX 081941
AFDMKX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MILWAUKEE/SULLIVAN WI
241 PM CDT THU OCT 8 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- THERE IS A CHANCE (20 TO 50 PERCENT) FOR A PERIOD OF SHOWERS
FRIDAY. A THUNDERSTORM MAY OCCUR.
- HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO BE ABOVE NORMAL INTO
FRIDAY, AND WELL ABOVE NORMAL THIS WEEKEND.
SHORT TERM
ISSUED 241 PM CDT THU OCT 8 2026
TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT:
WE WILL SEE AN INCREASE IN MID AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS TONIGHT DUE
TO AN INCREASE IN 500MB MOISTURE AND 700MB FRONTOGENESIS. THIS
IS DUE TO A STRENGTHENING UPPER TROUGH OVER QUEBEC AND AN UPPER
RIDGE OVER THE SOUTHWEST STATES. THE AREA OF 925 TO 850MB WARM
AIR ADVECTION AND FRONTOGENESIS WILL STEM FROM A WEAK LOW
DEVELOPING IN THE LEE OF THE ROCKIES OVER NE TONIGHT. THIS WILL
ALSO BE COINCIDENT WITH 700MB FGEN AND WEAK 500MB VORTICITY.
THIS CONCENTRATED AREA OF DEEPER MOISTURE AND FORCING WILL TRACK
ACROSS IA FRIDAY MORNING AND ROUGHLY ALONG THE WI/IL BORDER
FRIDAY AFTERNOON. THIS IS A SLIGHT SOUTHWARD SHIFT IN WHAT
PREVIOUS MODELS HAD, SO THE PRECIP CHANCES TRENDED DOWNWARD A
BIT FOR US. ESPECIALLY FOR CENTRAL WI.
WITH THIS BRIEF PERIOD OF FORCING AND MOISTURE TRACKING ACROSS
SOUTHERN WI ON THE NOSE OF A STRONG LOW LEVEL JET FRI AFTERNOON,
WE COULD SEE AROUND A TENTH OF AN INCH OF LIGHT RAIN (OR LESS).
WE COULD SEE A FEW LIGHTNING STRIKES WITH THESE SHOWERS DUE TO
SOME WEAK ELEVATED INSTABILITY, BUT NO SEVERE WEATHER.
CRONCE
LONG TERM
ISSUED 241 PM CDT THU OCT 8 2026
SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY:
EXPECT BREEZY SOUTHERLY WINDS ON SATURDAY WITH GUSTS OF 25 TO 30
MPH IN THE AFTERNOON. THE WIND DIRECTION HAS TRENDED A LITTLE
MORE SOUTH THAN SOUTHWEST, WHICH MEANS THAT AREAS RIGHT ALONG
THE LAKESHORE SHOULD REMAIN COOLER DUE TO A SLIGHT ONSHORE
COMPONENT (LAKE- INDUCED). VERY WARM TEMPS ARE EXPECTED DUE TO
PERSISTENT AND DRY SOUTHWEST FLOW ORIGINATING FROM THE WESTERN
STATES. THIS IS DUE TO A SHIFT FROM RIDGING OVER THE PACIFIC
NORTHWEST TO A BROAD TROUGH AND A RESULTANT SURFACE LOW OVER
THE NORTHERN PLAINS, AND HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE NORTHEASTERN
STATES. WITH 925MB TEMPS OF 20 TO 21C OVER SOUTHERN WI AND
EFFICIENT MIXING OF A VERY DRY AIR MASS RIGHT UP TO THAT LEVEL
(AND LIKELY A WEAK INVERSION ABOVE THAT), WE CAN EXPECT THE HIGH
TEMPS TO BE RIGHT AROUND 80 (UP TO 82). THE RECORD HIGH FOR
THAT DAY IS 84.
WITH THE WARM TEMPS AND DEWPOINTS IN THE LOWER 50S (WITH
POTENTIAL FOR LOWER DUE TO MIXING), THE MIN RH VALUES WILL BE IN
THE MID 40 PERCENT RANGE. WHILE THIS IS NOT CRITICAL AND WE ARE
STILL PLENTY GREEN, FIRE WEATHER IS NOT A MAJOR CONCERN, BUT
ALSO NOT SOMETHING TO BE IGNORED.
HURRICANE ISAIAS OVER THE GULF OF AMERICA WILL TRACK NORTHWARD
AND THEN JUST SOUTH OF THE OHIO RIVER ON SUNDAY (SLIGHTLY
FARTHER SOUTH THAN PREVIOUS MODEL RUNS). SOUTHEAST WI WILL
LIKELY SEE CLOUD COVER FROM THIS SYSTEM (BUT NO RAIN), WHICH
WILL KEEP TEMPS IN THE LOWER- MID 70S NEAR LAKE MICHIGAN INSTEAD
OF UPPER 70S).
A NORTHERN STREAM MID LEVEL TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO SLIDE ACROSS
US/CANADIAN BORDER AND LAKE SUPERIOR MONDAY OR TUESDAY (COULD BE
A SERIES OF WAVES) AND THIS WILL PUSH A COLD FRONT DOWN THROUGH
CENTRAL AND EVENTUALLY SOUTHERN WI. SHOWERS AND PERHAPS A FEW
THUNDERSTORMS WILL LIKELY ACCOMPANY THIS FRONT, BUT THE TIMING
AND RAINFALL AMOUNTS ARE STILL VERY UNCERTAIN.
COOLER, MORE SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES WILL RETURN AROUND THE
MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK AS HIGH PRESSURE MOVES OVER THE UPPER GREAT
LAKES.THE NEXT LOW APPROACHING FROM THE NORTHERN PLAINS WILL
BRING OUR NEXT CHANCE FOR RAIN TO SOUTHERN WI ON A WARM FRONTAL
BOUNDARY WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND NIGHT INTO THURSDAY.
CRONCE
AVIATION
ISSUED 241 PM CDT THU OCT 8 2026
EXPECT MID AND HIGH CLOUDS THROUGH THE PERIOD. LIGHT WINDS
TONIGHT WILL BECOME SOUTHEAST FRIDAY MORNING. A PERIOD OF LIGHT
SHOWERS WITH A SMALL CHANCE OF LIGHTNING WILL LIFT THROUGH
SOUTHERN WI FRIDAY AFTERNOON. DEPENDING ON MODEL TRENDS AND
CONSISTENCY, A TEMPO OR PROB30 MAY BE NEEDED TO COVER THESE
CHANCES. LOW LEVEL WIND SHEAR WITH STRONG SOUTH-SOUTHWEST WINDS
JUST ABOVE THE SURFACE IS EXPECTED FRIDAY NIGHT.
CRONCE
MARINE
ISSUED 241 PM CDT THU OCT 8 2026
HIGH PRESSURE OF 30.1 INCHES WILL CROSS WISCONSIN TONIGHT.
WINDS WILL BECOME SOUTHERLY ON FRIDAY AS THE HIGH DEPARTS AND
LOW PRESSURE AROUND 29.2 INCHES DEVELOPS IN THE NORTHERN PLAINS.
THE TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT OVER LAKE MICHIGAN WILL PRODUCE
BREEZY SOUTHERLY WINDS UP TO 30 KNOTS FROM FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH
SUNDAY MORNING. A FEW GALE FORCE GUSTS MAY OCCUR IN THE NORTHERN
HALF OF THE LAKE SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
LIGHTER WINDS ARE EXPECTED MONDAY AS A WEAK LOW PRESSURE TROUGH
AROUND 29.7 INCHES SLOWLY MOVES FROM MINNESOTA TO WISCONSIN. LOOK
FOR GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS TO DEVELOP MONDAY NIGHT INTO
TUESDAY AFTER THE PASSAGE OF A COLD FRONT AS HIGH PRESSURE OF
30.1 INCHES BUILDS INTO THE UPPER MIDWEST.
CRONCE
MKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
WI...NONE.
LM...NONE.
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