995
FXUS63 KMKX 131801
AFDMKX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MILWAUKEE/SULLIVAN WI
101 PM CDT TUE OCT 13 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS THIS EVENING.
- RAIN SHOWERS EXPECTED (70-90% CHANCES) THURSDAY INTO THURSDAY
NIGHT, WITH A FEW RUMBLES OF THUNDER ALSO POSSIBLE.
- NORTHWEST WINDS GUSTING 30 TO 40 MPH FRIDAY, WITH HIGHER GUSTS
AND GALE FORCE CONDITIONS LIKELY OVER LAKE MICHIGAN.
- MUCH COLDER TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED OVER THE WEEKEND, WITH A
ROUND OF FROST POSSIBLE FRIDAY NIGHT.
SHORT TERM
ISSUED 101 PM CDT TUE OCT 13 2026
THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT:
AN AREA OF WARM AIR ADVECTION ALOFT ALONG WITH A WEAK PUSH OF
HIGHER MOISTURE IS EXPECTED TO MOVE THROUGH THIS EVENING.
THIS FORCING NEAR THE NEBRASKA/IOWA BORDER EARLY THIS AFTERNOON
IS PRODUCING SOME INCREASED CLOUDINESS AND OCCASIONAL SHOWERS.
THE DEEPER MOISTURE AND BETTER FORCING WILL REMAIN WITHIN THE
FRONTAL REGION TO THE SOUTH OF WISCONSIN, BUT COULD SEE ENOUGH
FORCING/MOISTURE MOVING THROUGH SOUTHERN WISCONSIN LATER FOR
SCATTERED SHOWERS. A RUMBLE OR TWO OF THUNDER WILL BE POSSIBLE,
AS MODELS ARE SHOWING A LITTLE INSTABILITY SNEAKING NORTH OF THE
WI/IL BORDER. ANY SHOWERS THAT DO DEVELOP SHOULD DEPART TO THE
EAST BY AROUND MIDNIGHT TONIGHT, WITH DRY WEATHER THEN EXPECTED
OVERNIGHT.
DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED WEDNESDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE MOVES THROUGH
THE REGION. TEMPERATURES WILL BE COOLER TOMORROW UNDER THE HIGH,
BUT STILL NEAR OR EVEN A COUPLE DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL FOR MID-
OCTOBER.
DDV
LONG TERM
ISSUED 101 PM CDT TUE OCT 13 2026
THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY:
WIDESPREAD SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED ON THURSDAY, DUE TO INCREASING
MOISTURE AND WARM AIR ADVECTION AHEAD OF A STRONG APPROACHING
TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE. THOUGH CONFIDENCE IS HIGH IN PRECIP
CHANCES OVERALL, THERE ARE INDICATIONS THAT THE HIGHER RAINFALL
TOTALS MAY BE NORTH NEAR TOWARD THE BETTER UPPER TROUGH FORCING
AND ALSO SOUTH NEAR THE SURFACE LOW TRACK. OVERALL THOUGH, THE
FORCING AND MOISTURE ARE ENOUGH TO MAINTAIN HIGH PRECIP CHANCES
FOR THE FORECAST AREA.
THE MAIN COLD FRONT WITH THE LATE WEEK SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO
MOVE THROUGH THURSDAY EVENING, WITH THE TROUGH PASSAGE LATE
THURSDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY FRIDAY MORNING. A FEW SHOWERS MAY
LINGER WITH THE TROUGH PASSAGE LATE THU INTO EARLY FRI, BUT
PRECIP CHANCES WILL BE MUCH LOWER BEHIND THE COLD FRONT AS A
MUCH DRIER AIRMASS MOVES IN. MUCH COOLER CONDITIONS ARE ALSO
EXPECTED BEHIND THIS SYSTEM, WITH HIGHS ONLY IN THE 50S FRIDAY
AND SATURDAY. IT STILL LOOKS LIKE THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR THE
FIRST WIDESPREAD FROST OF THE SEASON FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY
MORNING UNDER HIGH PRESSURE.
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO BE IN PLACE ACROSS THE
REGION MUCH OF THE TIME OVER THE WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK,
WITH DRY WEATHER LIKELY THROUGH THIS PERIOD. SOUTHERLY WINDS
WILL DEVELOP ON THE BACK SIDE OF THE HIGH BY EARLY NEXT WEEK,
WITH TEMPERATURES RETURNING TO AT LEAST NORMAL, IF NOT SEVERAL
DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL BY TUESDAY.
DDV
AVIATION
ISSUED 101 PM CDT TUE OCT 13 2026
MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES WILL PERSIST THROUGH LATE AFTERNOON, WITH
INCREASING CLOUDS AND A CHANCE FOR SHOWERS THROUGH THE EVENING
HOURS. THE BEST CHANCE FOR SCATTERED SHOWERS AND A RUMBLE OR TWO
OF THUNDER WILL BE FROM 00Z TO 06Z, WITH DRY WEATHER THEN
EXPECTED OVERNIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES
INTO THE REGION.
A PERIOD OF LOWER CLOUDS WILL BE POSSIBLE WEDNESDAY MORNING, BUT
OTHERWISE VFR CONDITIONS ARE LIKELY TO PERSIST THE REST OF THE
DAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY. NORTHWEST WINDS THIS AFTERNOON WILL
BECOME LIGHT AND VARIABLE THIS EVENING INTO TONIGHT, THEN
NORTHEAST ON WEDNESDAY.
DDV
MARINE
ISSUED 101 PM CDT TUE OCT 13 2026
NORTHWEST WINDS THIS AFTERNOON WILL GRADUALLY BECOME NORTHERLY
MOST PLACES THIS EVENING INTO TONIGHT BETWEEN DEPARTING LOW
PRESSURE OVER THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES AND AN APPROACHING HIGH
OF 30.3 INCHES. WINDS WILL INCREASE TO 10 TO 20 KNOTS BY THE
AFTERNOON TOMORROW, ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE
LAKE. WINDS WILL THEN BECOME EASTERLY WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO
THURSDAY AS THE HIGH HEADS EASTWARD, WITH THE STRONGER WINDS
REMAINING OVER THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE LAKE. A SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY MAY EVENTUALLY BE NEEDED FOR LATER WEDNESDAY INTO
THURSDAY DUE TO BUILDING WAVES UNDER THE PERSISTENT ONSHORE
FLOW.
A STRONG SYSTEM WILL MOVE THROUGH LATE IN THE WEEK, BRINGING
INCREASING NORTHWEST WINDS THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY BEHIND
THE LOW AND ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT. THERE IS INCREASING
CONFIDENCE IN A PERIOD OF GALES, WITH A FEW GUSTS POTENTIALLY
APPROACHING STORM FORCE.
DDV
MKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
WI...NONE.
LM...NONE.
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