512
FXUS63 KMKX 231108
AFDMKX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MILWAUKEE/SULLIVAN WI
608 AM CDT MON MAR 23 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- HIGH PRESSURE MOVES IN ON MONDAY WITH TEMPERATURES AROUND
NORMAL.
- CHANCES (MAINLY 20 TO 30 PERCENT) FOR PRECIPITATION RETURNS TO
THE AREA FOR MIDDLE TO LATER PORTIONS OF NEXT WEEK.
UPDATE
ISSUED 608 AM CDT MON MAR 23 2026
NORTH-NORTHEAST WINDS ARE SLOWLY WEAKENING EARLY THIS MORNING AS
HIGH PRESSURE IN THE NORTHERN PLAINS SLOWLY MOVES EAST TOWARD
THE STATE. AS WINDS WEAKEN THIS AFTERNOON, A LAKE BREEZE IS
EXPECTED TO DEVELOP AND MOVE INLAND. THIS WILL DROP
TEMPERATURES IN THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING. DRY AND QUIET
CONDITIONS TODAY WITH NO MAJOR CHANGES TO THE FORECAST.
PATTERSON
SHORT TERM
ISSUED 1148 PM CDT SUN MAR 22 2026
TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT:
LINGERING STRATUS TONIGHT MAY MODERATE LOW TEMPERATURES
DEPENDING UPON HOW LONG THE CLOUDS MANAGE TO HANG ON. GIVEN
MODEL GUIDANCE DOESN'T HAVE THE CLOUD COVER MOVING EAST OVER
LAKE MICHIGAN UNTIL SHORTLY BEFORE DAYBREAK, LOW TEMPERATURES
HAVE BEEN ADJUSTED UPWARDS A DEGREE OR TWO. EXPECTED LOWS IN THE
MID TO UPPER 20S.
HIGH PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO MOVE IN TODAY, LEADING TO CALMER
WINDS AND CLEAR SKIES TO START THE DAY. DAYTIME CU IS EXPECTED
TO FORM OVER THE EASTERN HALF OF THE AREA DURING THE LATE
MORNING AND PERSIST INTO THE AFTERNOON, GENERALLY CLUMPING CLOSE
TO A LAKE BREEZE BOUNDARY THATS EXPECTED TO TAKE SHAPE DURING
THE MID AFTERNOON. HIGHS WILL RANGE FROM THE LOW 40S ALONG THE
LAKESHORE TO THE UPPER 40S OVER SOUTHWEST WI.
HIGH PRESSURE THEN EXITS EAST TONIGHT WITH WINDS COMING AROUND
TO SOUTH-SOUTHWESTERLY. SOME WARM ADVECTION ALOFT MAY CAUSE
SATURATION AT THE 700MB LEVEL EARLY TUESDAY MORNING, BUT MODELS
SHOW LINGERING DRY AIR AT THE SFC FROM THE RETREATING HIGH
PRESSURE. POPS WERE LEFT OUT AND WE SHOULD AVOID FLURRIES OR
LIGHT SNOW.
WARM ADVECTION CONTINUES ON TUESDAY WITH DRY AND CLOUDIER
CONDITIONS. EXPECT HIGHS IN THE LOW TO MID 50S.
CMILLER
LONG TERM
ISSUED 1148 PM CDT SUN MAR 22 2026
WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY:
MODELS LOOK A BIT DRIER FOR WEDNESDAY AS MORE PRONOUNCED WARM
ADVECTION LEANS INTO THE AREA. TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO RISE
INTO THE LOW 60S ACROSS THE AREA AS A WARM FRONTAL BOUNDARY
SHARPENS ACROSS THE UPPER MIDWEST. OUR NEXT BEST PRECIPITATION
CHANCE FOR THE WEEK MOVES IN ON THURSDAY AS A LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM PROPAGATES EAST ALONG THE BAROCLINIC ZONE DURING THE
AFTERNOON AND INTO THE EVENING. RIGHT NOW THE NBM PAINTS 25 TO
35% POPS THURSDAY AFTERNOON OVER THE AREA, GIVEN SOME LINGERING
DISAGREEMENT BETWEEN THE GLOBAL MODELS ON THE POSITIONING OF THE
BAROCLINIC ZONE AND POSITION OF THE LOW. IF A GFS SOLUTION WERE
TO VERIFY WE'D BE EXPOSED TO MORE OF THE WARM SECTOR AND HAVE
BETTER CHANCES FOR THUNDER DURING THE AFTERNOON. WE'LL CONTINUE
TO MONITOR THOSE CHANCES AS THE WEEK UNFOLDS.
TEMPERATURES DIP INTO THE 40S AMID COLD ADVECTION FRIDAY, WITH
HIGH PRESSURE EXPECTED TO MOVE THROUGH ON SATURDAY. RIDGING THEN
BUILDS AGAIN SUNDAY INTO MONDAY, WITH HINTS THAT TEMPERATURES
WILL AGAIN PUSH BACK TOWARD THE 60S BY THE END OF THE EXTENDED
PERIOD.
CMILLER
AVIATION
ISSUED 608 AM CDT MON MAR 23 2026
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD. THE LINGERING
BREEZY NORTH-NORTHWEST WINDS EARLY THIS MORNING WILL SLOWLY
SUBSIDE AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE NORTHERN PLAINS.
LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS ARE EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON WITH MOSTLY
CLEAR SKIES. A LAKE BREEZE IS EXPECTED TO MOVE INLAND THIS
AFTERNOON AS WINDS WEAKEN. SCATTERED CUMULUS CLOUDS MAY DEVELOP
ALONG THE LAKE BREEZE WITH CEILINGS AROUND 4-6 KFT. WINDS WILL
REMAIN LIGHT AND BECOME SOUTHERLY TONIGHT. CLOUDS WILL ALSO
RETURN LATE THIS EVENING INTO TONIGHT AHEAD OF A WEAK FRONTAL
BOUNDARY. THE FRONT WILL BE SLOW MOVING AND WILL LIKELY STALL
ACROSS NORTHERN WISCONSIN. CONDITIONS SHOULD REMAIN DRY ACROSS
SOUTHERN WISCONSIN WITH SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST WINDS THROUGH
TUESDAY.
PATTERSON
MARINE
ISSUED 1101 PM CDT SUN MAR 22 2026
GALES CONTINUE OVER THE SOUTHERN THIRD OF LAKE MICHIGAN THIS
EVENING AS SHARP PRESSURE GRADIENT REMAINS OVER THE LAKE. THIS
PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL LINGER INTO EARLY MONDAY, AS LOW PRESSURE
RETREATS EAST TOWARD THE DELMARVA PENINSULA AND HIGH PRESSURE MOVES
IN FROM THE NORTHERN GREAT PLAINS. A GALE WARNING REMAINS IN
EFFECT UNTIL 1AM CDT MONDAY FOR THE SOUTHERN 3RD OF THE OPEN
WATERS FOR GUSTS FROM 35 TO 40 KTS, WITH A FEW ISOLATED GUSTS TO
45 KTS POSSIBLE.
THE PREVIOUSLY MENTIONED HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE GREAT
LAKES REGION THE FIRST HALF OF MONDAY, BRINGING DECREASING WINDS
AND THEN BRIEFLY LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS MONDAY EVENING AS THE
CENTER OF THE HIGH PRESSURE PASSES OVER THE LAKE. AS THIS HIGH
EXITS TUESDAY AND A WEAK FRONT PASSES, WINDS MAY PICK UP A BIT
FROM THE SOUTH. WINDS OVER THE LAKE WILL REMAIN LARGELY FROM THE
SOUTH THROUGH WEDNESDAY AS BROAD LOW PRESSURE APPROACHES FROM THE
WEST. CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION ON TUESDAY AND AGAIN ON WEDNESDAY
THOUGH PRIMARILY FOR NORTHERN PARTS OF THE LAKE.
CMILLER
MKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
WI...NONE.
LM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY...LMZ643-LMZ644 UNTIL 7 AM MONDAY.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY...LMZ645-LMZ646 UNTIL 10 AM MONDAY.
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