552
FXUS63 KMKX 240148
AFDMKX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MILWAUKEE/SULLIVAN WI
848 PM CDT THU SEP 23 2021
UPDATE
(ISSUED 848 PM CDT THU SEP 23 2021)
JUST SOME MID LEVEL CLOUDS HANGING ON ACROSS THE FAR NORTHEAST
THIS EVENING AS LOW PRESSURE STARTS TO PULL AWAY TO THE EAST. LOOK
FOR WINDS TO CONTINUE TO DECREASE TONIGHT, TURNING WESTERLY AND
THEN SOUTHWESTERLY OVERNIGHT INTO TOMORROW MORNING AS A WEAK
SURFACE RIDGE MOVES THROUGH. TEMPERATURES ARE ON TRACK TO FALL
INTO THE MID TO UPPER 40S OVERNIGHT.
BOXELL
SHORT TERM
(ISSUED 349 PM CDT THU SEP 23 2021)
TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT:
PRECIP BRUSHING THE FAR NORTHEAST WILL WIND DOWN BY EARLY
EVENING, WITH DECREASING CLOUDS AND WINDS OVERNIGHT. THIS WILL
ALLOW TEMPS DO DROP INTO THE 40S MOST PLACES ONCE AGAIN.
A STRONG SHORTWAVE AND COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA
LATER FRIDAY INTO FRIDAY NIGHT. PRECIPITABLE WATER SHOULD GET UP
TO AROUND AN INCH AHEAD OF THE FRONT, WITH SOME DECENT FORCING AS
THIS SYSTEM MOVES THROUGH. MOISTURE AND FORCING LOOK EVEN A BIT
BETTER NOW THAN MODELS WERE SHOWING 24 HOURS. SEEMS LIKE A GOOD
BET FOR SOME SHOWERS, MAINLY LATE IN THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
INSTABILITY LOOKS A TAD BETTER, SO KEPT A SMALL CHANCE FOR
THUNDERSTORMS. TEMPS WILL BE WARMER FRIDAY WITH SOUTHERLY WINDS
EXPECTED AHEAD OF THE FRONT. SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL GUST 25 TO 35
MPH AHEAD OF THE FRONT AS WELL.
DDV
LONG TERM
(ISSUED 349 PM CDT THU SEP 23 2021)
SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY:
IT WILL BE COOLER AND DRY SATURDAY BEHIND THE DEPARTING SYSTEM.
IT THEN LOOKS MAINLY DRY AND MILDER FOR THE FIRST HALF OF NEXT
WEEK. THE MAIN QUESTION FOR EARLY NEXT WEEK IS STILL HOW MUCH THE
UPPER RIDGE WILL LEAN INTO THE AREA VS STAYING IN A TROUGHING
PATTERN. MODELS OVERALL HAVE TRENDED MORE TOWARDS THE RIDGE,
SUGGESTING NEAR TO ABOVE NORMAL TEMPS FOR THIS PERIOD. ONSHORE
WINDS MOST DAYS WILL RESULT IN COOLER CONDITIONS NEAR THE LAKE.
DDV
AVIATION
(ISSUED 848 PM CDT THU SEP 23 2021)
VFR IS EXPECTED OVERNIGHT AND FOR MOST OF THE DAY TOMORROW. NORTH
WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO EASE OVERNIGHT, AND WILL BECOME MORE
WESTERLY AND THEN SOUTHWESTERLY LATE TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY MORNING
AS A SURFACE RIDGE MOVES THROUGH. EXPECT SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST WINDS
TO INCREASE SUBSTANTIALLY DURING THE AFTERNOON, WITH 20-30 KNOT
GUSTS EXPECTED.
A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA TOMORROW EVENING, BRINGING
WITH IT SHOWERS AND PERHAPS A FEW THUNDERSTORMS. CLOUD BASES WILL
BE RATHER HIGH, SO VFR SHOULD STILL PREVAIL OUTSIDE OF THE
IMMEDIATE VICINITY OF ANY PRECIPITATION. WINDS WILL BECOME
NORTHWESTERLY BEHIND THE FRONT TOMORROW NIGHT.
BOXELL
MARINE
(ISSUED 349 PM CDT THU SEP 23 2021)
LOW PRESSURE OVER SOUTHEAST MICHIGAN WILL PROGRESS TO JUST NORTH
OF LAKE HURON BY FRIDAY MORNING, WEAKENING SLIGHTLY AS IT
CONTINUES NORTHWARD. STRONG NORTHERLY WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO
GRADUALLY EASE FROM NORTH TO SOUTH THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
HIGH WAVES WILL SLOWLY SUBSIDE THROUGH TONIGHT AS WELL.
AFTER A BRIEF PERIOD OF LIGHTER WINDS, SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL
INCREASE FRIDAY AFTERNOON AHEAD OF LOW PRESSURE TROUGH OVER UPPER
MICHIGAN AND NORTHERN WISCONSIN. THERE IS A CHANCE FOR SOUTHERLY
GALES ACROSS THE SOUTHERN OPEN WATERS AS THE TROUGH SWINGS ACROSS
LAKE MICHIGAN FRIDAY EVENING. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED FOR THE NEARSHORE WATERS TOMORROW AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN THROUGH THE MIDWEST AND OHIO RIVER VALLEY
SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY.
DDV
BEACHES
(ISSUED 349 PM CDT THU SEP 23 2021)
STRONG NORTHERLY WINDS WILL GRADUALLY EASE INTO THIS EVENING, WITH
WAVES OF 4 TO 8 FEET LINGERING AT LAKE MICHIGAN BEACHES.
DANGEROUS CURRENTS WILL ARE LIKELY AND CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE
TO BE DANGEROUS FOR EVEN THE STRONGEST OF SWIMMERS. SWIMMING IS
NOT ADVISED UNTIL CONDITIONS IMPROVE GOING INTO FRIDAY.
DDV
MKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
WI...BEACH HAZARDS STATEMENT...WIZ052-WIZ060-WIZ066-WIZ071-WIZ072
UNTIL MIDNIGHT FRIDAY.
LM...GALE WATCH...LMZ080-LMZ669-LMZ671-LMZ673-LMZ675-LMZ777-LMZ779-
LMZ870-LMZ872-LMZ874-LMZ876-LMZ878...5 PM FRIDAY TO 1 AM
SATURDAY.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY...LMZ643-LMZ644-LMZ645-LMZ646 UNTIL 3 AM
FRIDAY.
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