717
FXUS63 KMKX 100045 AAA
AFDMKX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MILWAUKEE/SULLIVAN WI
745 PM CDT TUE JUN 9 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- ISOLATED TO SCATTERED STORMS MAY DEVELOP LATE TONIGHT INTO
WEDNESDAY MORNING, WITH LARGE HAIL A POSSIBILITY IF STORMS
FORM. CONFIDENCE IS ON THE LOW END WITH THIS STORM POTENTIAL.
- FOG IS POSSIBLE TONIGHT ALONG LAKE MICHIGAN. MARINE DENSE FOG
IS ALSO LIKELY.
- A HIGH SWIM RISK IS IN EFFECT TOMORROW MID AFTERNOON INTO THE
EVENING. HIGH WAVES AND DANGEROUS CURRENTS WILL BE LIKELY, AND
SWIMMING IS NOT ADVISED AT SHEBOYGAN AND OZAUKEE BEACHES.
- MULTIPLE ROUNDS OF STORMS ARE EXPECTED WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY.
SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE LIKELY AT TIMES. AN ENHANCED RISK FOR
SEVERE WEATHER EXISTS BOTH WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY.
- HOT AND HUMID CONDITIONS EXPECTED WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY, WITH
SOME POTENTIAL FOR HEAT ADVISORY CONDITIONS ON WEDNESDAY IF WE
GET ENOUGH SUNSHINE.
UPDATE
ISSUED 745 PM CDT TUE JUN 9 2026
QUIET WEATHER IS EXPECTED THIS EVENING, WITH SLOWLY FALLING
TEMPERATURES DUE TO THE HUMID AIRMASS. IT STILL LOOKS LIKE THERE
COULD BE SOME FOG NEAR THE LAKE BY LATE EVENING AND CONTINUING
INTO EARLY WEDNESDAY GIVEN THE HIGH DEWPOINTS AND RELATIVELY
CHILLY WATERS OF LAKE MICHIGAN.
THE OTHER CONCERN TONIGHT INTO EARLY WEDNESDAY IS THE POTENTIAL
FOR A ROUND OF THUNDERSTORMS. THE ACTIVITY OVER THE DAKOTAS
EARLY THIS EVENING IS EXPECTED TO LARGELY LIFT NORTHEAST THROUGH
THE TOP OF THE UPPER RIDGE, STAYING MORE CLOSELY TIED TO THE
SHORTWAVE. THESE STORMS COULD CLIP THE NORTHERN FORECAST AREA
ROUGHLY BETWEEN 7 AM AND 11 AM TOMORROW MORNING, THOUGH LATEST
SHORT TERM MODEL TRENDS LARGELY KEEP THIS ACTIVITY TO THE NORTH.
ANOTHER POSSIBILITY FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS TONIGHT WILL BE AS AN
AREA OF WARM ADVECTION ALOFT AND HIGHER PRECIPITABLE WATER
ADVECT IN FROM THE SOUTHWEST. THERE ARE STILL A COUPLE MODELS
THAT TRY TO POP A FEW STORMS AS THIS AIRMASS MOVES IN, THOUGH
THERE HAS BEEN AN OVERALL DOWNWARD TREND IN MODELS FOR THIS
SCENARIO TO UNFOLD.
WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR UPSTREAM RADAR AND SATELLITE TRENDS
THIS EVENING TO WATCH FOR POTENTIAL STORM IMPACTS ACROSS
SOUTHERN WISCONSIN TONIGHT. PLENTY OF ELEVATED INSTABILITY
TONIGHT ALONG WITH MODEST SHEAR AND STEEP MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES
WOULD LEAD TO A POTENTIAL FOR LARGE HAIL IF STORMS DO FIRE. IN
GENERAL THOUGH, CONFIDENCE IN WIDESPREAD SHOWERS/STORMS ACROSS
THE FORECAST AREA HAS DECREASED A BIT FOR TONIGHT INTO EARLY
WEDNESDAY.
AS 00Z MODELS ROLL IN, THE PICTURE WILL HOPEFULLY BECOME MORE
CLEAR WITH WHAT MAY THEN HAPPEN MID-DAY WEDNESDAY INTO
WEDNESDAY EVENING. STILL SOME LINGERING UNCERTAINTIES WITH THAT
PERIOD AS WELL.
DDV
SHORT TERM
ISSUED 152 PM CDT TUE JUN 9 2026
TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT:
A REMNANT MCV CONTINUES TO CHURN OVER NORTHERN LAKE MICHIGAN.
CYCLONIC FLOW AROUND THIS FEATURE, DAYTIME HEATING FROM BREAKS
IN THE CLOUDS, AND HIGH SURFACE MOISTURE MAY ALLOW FOR SOME
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS OVER SOUTHERN WI FROM THE
MID AFTERNOON INTO THIS EVENING. GIVEN THE HIGH MOISTURE IN THE
ENVIRONMENT, THESE SHOWERS/STORMS WILL FEATURE HEAVY DOWNPOURS.
FOG IS POSSIBLE TONIGHT, PRIMARILY ALONG LAKE MICHIGAN WHERE IT
MAY BECOME DENSE IN SPOTS.
ATTENTION THEN TURNS TO AN APPROACHING TROUGH TOMORROW. LOW TO
MID LEVEL WARM ADVECTION IS EXPECTED TO KICK OFF A LINE OF
STORMS DURING THE PRE-DAWN HOURS ON WEDNESDAY THAT SHOULD TRACK
INTO WI. MODELS VARY ON COVERAGE, BUT THERE IS SOME POTENTIAL
THESE THUNDERSTORMS MAY IMPACT SOUTHWEST THROUGH CENTRAL WI FROM
5AM TO 10AM WEDNESDAY. THESE STORMS WOULD BE ELEVATED, AND
FEATURE THE POTENTIAL FOR LARGE HAIL, GIVEN STEEP MID LEVEL
LAPSE RATES AROUND 7.5 C/KM, MUCAPE OF 2500 J/KG, AND THE
POTENTIAL FOR SUPERCELLS IN THE 30 KNOTS OF EFFECTIVE SHEAR THAT
WILL BE PRESENT.
MODELS THEN VARY WILDLY WITH WHAT WILL OCCUR THROUGH THE DAY.
ONE CONSTANT SEEMS TO BE THAT THERE WILL BE A LINE OF STORMS
THAT COMES THROUGH DURING THE MID TO LATE EVENING ON WEDNESDAY.
IN BETWEEN THE MORNING ROUND AND EVENING ROUND HOWEVER, TWO
THINGS COULD HAPPEN. ANOTHER AFTERNOON ROUND LOOKS TO DEVELOP IN
MOST OF THE CAMS ALONG THE WI/IL BORDER EARLY AFTERNOON. THIS
LINE WOULD THEN TRACK EAST AND EXIT OVER LAKE MICHIGAN FORM 4 TO
6 PM. SOME MODELS DO NOT DEVELOP THIS ROUND HOWEVER, WHICH
INCREASES THE LIKELIHOOD FOR HOT AND HUMID CONDITIONS WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON AND A HEAT ADVISORY MAY BE NEEDED. RIGHT NOW, THE
AFTERNOON ROUND OF THUNDERSTORMS SCENARIO LOOKS MOST LIKELY,
WHICH WOULD LIMIT THE POTENTIAL FOR A HEAT ADVISORY, BUT
CONTRIBUTE TO A HIGHER ALL HAZARDS THREAT FOR THE STORMS DURING
THE AFTERNOON, GIVEN VERY UNSTABLE CAPE OF 4000 J/KG IN RAP AND
HRRR SOUNDINGS AND GOOD LOW LEVEL TURNING IN THE HODOGRAPHS.
WEDNESDAY EVENINGS ROUND OF STORMS WOULD THEN PRIMARILY FEATURE
A WIND THREAT GIVEN SHEAR WOULD BE MORE BOUNDARY PARALLEL DURING
THIS TIME.
THURSDAY'S STORM THREAT THEN DEPENDS UPON WHERE ANY REMNANT
BOUNDARIES SET UP AFTER WEDNESDAY'S STORMS. SOME OF THE CAMS
THAT ARE IN RANGE OF THURSDAY SUGGEST THAT ANOTHER DAY WITH
MULTIPLE ROUNDS OF STORMS MAY OCCUR WITH ALL SEVERE WEATHER
HAZARDS POSSIBLE. BUT THE DETAILS OF WHERE/WHEN REMAIN MURKY
GIVEN WEDNESDAY HASN'T PLAYED OUT YET. EARLY INDICATIONS FAVOR
THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE CWA FOR ANY POTENTIAL SEVERE WEATHER
THURSDAY.
ADDITIONALLY, BREEZY SOUTHEAST WINDS WILL DRIVE HIGH ONSHORE
WAVES TOMORROW LATE AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING AT BEACHES IN
SHEBOYGAN AND OZAUKEE COUNTIES. A HIGH SWIM RISK HAS BEEN
ISSUED FOR THE HIGH WAVES AND DANGEROUS CURRENTS. SWIMMING IS
NOT ADVISED DURING THIS TIME.
CMILLER
LONG TERM
ISSUED 152 PM CDT TUE JUN 9 2026
FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY:
LIGHT TO MODEST WLY SURFACE WINDS, DRY WEATHER, AND NEAR NORMAL
TEMPS WILL RETURN FOR FRIDAY IN THE WAKE OF A COLD FRONT THU NT.
OTHERWISE ZONAL FLOW WILL PREVAIL THE WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT
WEEK, BUT WITH A TENDENCY FOR 500 MB HEIGHTS TO FALL ESPECIALLY
OVER ONTARIO AND THE NRN GREAT LAKES.
A WEAK TROUGH IN THE LOW TO MID LEVELS WILL APPROACH FROM THE WEST
SAT AFTERNOON AND PASS SAT NT. WEAK LOW TO MID LEVEL WARM, MOIST
ADVECTION, BUT SLIGHTLY STRONGER FRONTOGENESIS IN THAT LAYER WILL
SUPPORT 40-60 PERCENT CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.
WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL FOLLOW FOR SUN-MON BUT WEAK SHORTWAVE
TROUGHS MAY BRING 20-30 PERCENT CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS.
30-40 PERCENT CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS IS FORECAST FOR TUE
AS A MORE ORGANIZED SHORTWAVE TROUGH MAY AFFECT THE REGION.
TEMPS ARE EXPECTED TO BE SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL FOR FRI-SAT THEN
SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL FOR SUN-MON.
GEHRING
AVIATION
ISSUED 745 PM CDT TUE JUN 9 2026
LOWER CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES MAY MOVE INTO THE EASTERN
FORECAST AREA FROM LAKE MICHIGAN THIS EVENING, POSSIBLY
LINGERING INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING. ALREADY SEEING SIGNS OF THIS
VIA OBSERVATIONS AND WEBCAMS FROM SHEBOYGAN TO MANITOWOC.
THERE IS ALSO THE POTENTIAL FOR A ROUND OF SHOWERS AND STORMS
LATER TONIGHT INTO EARLY WEDNESDAY. CONFIDENCE IS NOT HIGH IN
THESE STORMS THOUGH, AS THE CURRENT ACTIVITY OF THE DAKOTAS MAY
SCOOT BY JUST TO THE NORTH EARLY TOMORROW. WILL CONTINUE TO
MONITOR UPSTREAM TRENDS THOUGH, AS ANY STORMS THAT DO DEVELOP
COULD HAVE THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME LARGE HAIL.
CONFIDENCE IS A BIT HIGHER FOR STORM CHANCES WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON INTO WEDNESDAY EVENING. SOME UNCERTAINTY REMAINS
THOUGH, AS AFTERNOON STORMS TIED TO A WEAK SHORTWAVE AND VORTMAX
COULD MOVE THROUGH SOUTHERN WISCONSIN AND ROB THE LOCAL
ENVIRONMENT OF INSTABILITY FOR THE POTENTIAL EVENING STORMS.
ANY STORMS THAT DO MOVE THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA TOMORROW
AFTERNOON AND EVENING WOULD HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO BE SEVERE.
LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS THIS EVENING WILL BECOME SOUTH TO
SOUTHWEST AND BREEZY BY LATE WEDNESDAY MORNING AHEAD OF AN
APPROACHING SHORTWAVE.
DDV
MARINE
ISSUED 152 PM CDT TUE JUN 9 2026
MARINE DENSE FOG CURRENTLY EXISTS OVER THE NORTHERN HALF TO TWO
THIRDS OF LAKE MICHIGAN. MODELS PROJECT THIS FOG TO GRADUALLY
SPREAD TO ENCOMPASS THE ENTIRETY OF THE LAKE TONIGHT AS A
SURFACE WARM FRONT APPROACHES THE LAKE. A MARINE DENSE FOG
ADVISORY HAS BEEN PREEMPTIVELY ISSUED FOR THE FOG POTENTIAL LATE
THIS AFTERNOON AND INTO TONIGHT.
LIGHT GENERALLY NORTHERLY WINDS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THIS
AFTERNOON AND INTO TONIGHT, UNTIL THE WARM FRONT LIFTS NORTH
OVER THE LAKE AROUND MIDNIGHT CDT AND FLIPS WINDS AROUND TO
SOUTHERLY AND SOUTHEASTERLY. WINDS WILL THEN REMAIN
SOUTHEASTERLY THROUGH WEDNESDAY AS LOW PRESSURE OF 29.3 INCHES
APPROACHES FROM THE NORTHERN PLAINS. THE WINDS MAY BECOME
MODERATELY BREEZY LATE WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING..
THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED OVER THE LAKE AT TIMES ON WEDNESDAY,
WITH SOME STRONG STORMS FAVORED WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND NIGHT.
WINDS COME AROUND TO SOUTHWESTERLY WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO
THURSDAY, WITH WINDS THEN RETURNING TO SOUTHEASTERLY AHEAD OF AN
APPROACHING COLD FRONT ON THURSDAY, WITH ADDITIONAL STORMS
POSSIBLE.
CMILLER
MKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
WI...BEACH HAZARDS STATEMENT...WIZ052-WIZ060...4 PM WEDNESDAY TO 4
AM THURSDAY.
LM...DENSE FOG ADVISORY...LMZ080-LMZ261-LMZ362-LMZ364-LMZ366-LMZ563-
LMZ565-LMZ567-LMZ643-LMZ644-LMZ645-LMZ669-LMZ671-LMZ673-
LMZ675-LMZ777-LMZ779-LMZ868-LMZ870-LMZ872-LMZ874-LMZ876-
LMZ878 UNTIL 10 AM WEDNESDAY.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY...LMZ643-LMZ644...4 PM WEDNESDAY TO 1 AM
THURSDAY.
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