027  
FXUS63 KMKX 090939  
AFDMKX  
 
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION  
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MILWAUKEE/SULLIVAN WI  
339 AM CST TUE MAR 9 2021  
   
SHORT TERM
 
 
(ISSUED 339 AM CST TUE MAR 9 2021)  
 
TODAY AND TONIGHT:  
 
LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPING IN THE PLAINS TODAY WILL TRACK ACROSS  
NORTHWEST WI TONIGHT AND INTO ONTARIO BY THURSDAY MORNING. LOOK  
FOR INCREASING SOUTHERLY WINDS ACROSS SOUTHERN WI AHEAD OF THIS  
SYSTEM. TEMPERATURES WILL BE A LITTLE WARMER THAN YESTERDAY, WITH  
HIGHS IN THE LOWER 60S. LAKESHORE AREAS SHOULD TOP OUT IN THE 50S  
DUE TO AN ONSHORE COMPONENT TO THE WIND. HIGH CLOUDS WILL STREAM  
ACROSS THE AREA FOR MOST OF THE DAY.  
 
TONIGHT, WINDS ABOVE THE SURFACE WILL RAMP UP WITH THE LOW LEVEL  
JET, BUT STABLE AIR NEAR THE GROUND SHOULD PREVENT THOSE WINDS  
FROM REACHING THE GROUND AS GUSTS. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN MILD  
TONIGHT WITH STEADY SOUTHERLY WINDS, WITH LOWS IN THE UPPER 40S TO  
AROUND 50.  
 
CRONCE  
 

 
   
LONG TERM
 
 
(ISSUED 339 AM CST TUE MAR 9 2021)  
 
WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY:  
 
LOOK FOR SHOWERS AND SOME ELEVATED THUNDERSTORMS TO SPREAD INTO  
SOUTH CENTRAL WI FROM WEST TO EAST BEGINNING EARLY WEDNESDAY  
MORNING WITH STRONG WARM AIR ADVECTION. THE SURFACE LOW WILL LIFT  
INTO NORTHWEST WI BY WEDNESDAY EVENING. THIS IS FARTHER NORTH THAN  
MODEL RUNS HAVE TAKEN THIS SYSTEM OVER THE PAST FEW DAYS, BUT  
THERE IS CONSISTENCY BETWEEN THE MODELS ON THIS NORTHERLY  
SOLUTION. THAT GETS SOUTHERN WI OUT OF THE FRONTAL PRECIP EARLIER  
ON WEDNESDAY AND WE STAY DRY LONGER THAN WHAT WE HAD IN PREVIOUS  
FORECASTS.  
 
THE ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT WILL SLIDE THROUGH SOUTHERN WI THURSDAY  
MORNING. WE SHOULD SEE A FEW SHOWERS WITH THIS FRONT, BUT THE  
BETTER FORCING AND HIGHER CHANCES FOR PRECIP WILL ACTUALLY SPLIT  
AROUND US. NORTHERN IL SHOULD SEE THE BRUNT OF THE QPF WITH THE  
FRONT DURING THE DAY THURSDAY SINCE THE FRONT WILL ALREADY BE  
THROUGH OUR AREA DURING PEAK HEATING. IN FACT, PRECIP CHANCES LOOK  
LOWER FOR SOUTHERN WI ON THURSDAY THAN PREVIOUS FORECASTS. THUS,  
OUR STORM TOTAL PRECIP IS NOW FORECAST TO BE AROUND A QUARTER  
INCH RATHER THAN A HALF INCH. THERE IS STILL SOME UNCERTAINTY, BUT  
SIGNS ARE POINTING TO LESS RAIN RATHER THAN MORE WITH THIS SYSTEM.  
 
THE WEEKEND WILL BE DRY AND COOLER WITH HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE  
REGION. A BIG, CLOSED UPPER LOW "BOWLING BALL" WILL SETTLE OVER  
THE SOUTHWEST PORTION OF THE COUNTRY OVER THE WEEKEND AND MAKE ITS  
WAY INTO THE MIDWEST/UPPER MIDWEST EARLY NEXT WEEK. THE GFS WANTS  
TO BRING PRECIP INTO SOUTHERN WI SUNDAY AFTERNOON WHILE THE ECMWF  
HOLDS IT OFF UNTIL MONDAY MORNING. MODELS HAVE A HARD TIME  
HANDLING CLOSED UPPER LOWS, SO PREDICTABILITY IS LOW FOR PRECIP  
CHANCES, BUT A SLOWER SOLUTION MAKES MORE SENSE IN THIS SCENARIO. THE  
PRECIP WITH SYSTEM EARLY NEXT WEEK MAY BEGIN AS A WINTRY MIX  
BEFORE CHANGING OVER TO RAIN.  
 
CRONCE  
 

 
   
AVIATION
 
 
(ISSUED 339 AM CST TUE MAR 9 2021)  
 
SOME LIGHT, PATCHY FOG IS DEVELOPING ACROSS PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN  
WI EARLY THIS MORNING, BUT THERE SHOULD BE ENOUGH WIND AND HIGH  
CLOUDS TO KEEP IT FROM BECOMING TOO WIDESPREAD. EXPECT HIGH CLOUDS  
TO STREAM ACROSS THE AREA ALL DAY. LOW CLOUDS WITH MVFR ARE  
EXPECTED TO DEVELOP LATE TONIGHT AS LOW LEVEL WARM AIR ADVECTION  
KICKS IN AHEAD OF LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPING IN THE PLAINS. SHOWERS  
AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS ARE LIKELY WEDNESDAY MORNING, WITH LOWER  
CHANCES WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND NIGHT. CEILINGS SHOULD RISE TO VFR  
BY WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON.  
 
CRONCE  
 

 
   
MARINE
 
 
(ISSUED 339 AM CST TUE MAR 9 2021)  
 
LOW PRESSURE APPROACHING FROM THE PLAINS WILL TRACK ACROSS  
NORTHWEST WISCONSIN TONIGHT, THEN ACROSS LAKE SUPERIOR INTO  
ONTARIO THURSDAY MORNING. LOOK FOR INCREASING SOUTHERLY WINDS  
OVER LAKE MICHIGAN AHEAD OF THIS SYSTEM. WINDS JUST ABOVE THE  
SURFACE WILL BE VERY STRONG FROM TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT.  
WE MAY SEE A GALE FORCE GUST TONIGHT, BUT THE BEST CHANCE OF  
SEEING ANY OF THESE STRONGER WINDS MIX DOWN AS GALE FORCE GUSTS  
WILL BE WEDNESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT. THEREFORE, A GALE WATCH IS  
IN EFFECT FOR THE LATTER PERIOD FOR THE WHOLE OPEN LAKE AND ALSO  
THE NEARSHORE AREAS OF SOUTHEAST WI.  
 
WINDS WILL DIMINISH AS THEY SWITCH TO THE WEST BEHIND THE SYSTEM  
THURSDAY MORNING.  
 
CRONCE  
 

 
   
MKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
 
 
WI...NONE.  
LM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY...LMZ643-LMZ644-LMZ645-LMZ646...NOON  
TUESDAY TO 9 AM WEDNESDAY.  
 
GALE WATCH...LMZ080-LMZ261-LMZ362-LMZ364-LMZ366-LMZ563-LMZ565-  
LMZ567-LMZ643-LMZ644-LMZ645-LMZ646-LMZ669-LMZ671-LMZ673-  
LMZ675-LMZ777-LMZ779-LMZ868-LMZ870-LMZ872-LMZ874-LMZ876-  
LMZ878...9 AM WEDNESDAY TO 4 AM THURSDAY.  
 

 
 

 
 
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