150
FXUS63 KMKX 101842
AFDMKX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MILWAUKEE/SULLIVAN WI
142 PM CDT MON AUG 10 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- DRY OVER MUCH OF SOUTHERN WISCONSIN TODAY. A FEW STORMS MAY
OCCUR THIS EVENING ALONG THE WISCONSIN/ILLINOIS BORDER, MAINLY
AFTER 6PM. ISOLATED GUSTY WINDS AND HAIL CAN'T BE RULED OUT
IF A STRONGER STORM OCCURS. HEAVY DOWNPOURS WILL ALSO BE
POSSIBLE.
- PERIODIC CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE
THROUGH THE WEEK. THE HIGHEST CHANCES FOR MORE WIDESPREAD
STRONG STORM POTENTIAL OVER SOUTHERN WI WILL BE TUESDAY
MORNING/AFTERNOON.
- SECOND HALF OF THE WEEK IS TRENDING DRIER WITH NEAR NORMAL
TEMPS WITH A MORE ACTIVE PATTERN RETURNING FOR THE WEEKEND.
SHORT TERM
ISSUED 142 PM CDT MON AUG 10 2026
TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT:
TODAY LOOKS LIKELY TO BE LARGELY QUIET ACROSS AT LEAST MOST OF
THE CWA WITH THE STATIONARY FRONT SOUTH OF THE CWA AND WAA AND
LLJ FOCUSED OVER NORTHERN IL. IN ADDITION THERE DOES NOT LOOK TO
BE MUCH OF A SHORTWAVE PUSHING THROUGH OUR CWA TODAY. THIS
GENERALLY APPEARS LIKELY TO KEEP THINGS DRY THE ONLY
UNCERTAINTY ASSOCIATED WITH THIS IS RIGHT ALONG THE WI/IL BORDER
WHERE SOME CAMS ARE SUGGESTIVE THAT AFTERNOON AND EVENING
ACTIVITY ALONG THE FRONT MAY REACH INTO FAR SOUTHERN WI. IF
THAT IS THE CASE HEAVY RAIN, FLOODING AND EVEN A SEVERE STORM
WILL BE POSSIBLE GIVEN HIGH INSTABILITY AND GOOD DEEP LAYER
SHEAR. THUS WHILE WE CANNOT RULE OUT FLASH FLOODING (PWATS NEAR
1.75-2IN), SOME DAMAGING WINDS OR HAIL FROM STORMS THE FOCUS
AREA WISE SHOULD BE RESTRICTED TO RIGHT ALONG THE WI/IL BORDER
IN THE BOTTOM TIER OF WI COUNTIES. ANY STORMS THAT MAY BE IN WI
SHOULD PUSH OUT BY THE EARLY OVERNIGHT HOURS.
ATTENTION THEN TURNS TOWARD TUESDAY MORNING AS MOST MODELS SHOW
A DEVELOPING MCS OVERNIGHT IN SW MN TRACKING ESE. THIS IS
CURRENTLY EXPECTED TO PUSH THROUGH SOUTHERN WI DURING THE
DAYLIGHT MORNING HOURS. THE STRENGTH OF THIS IS DEFINITELY IN
QUESTION AS IS THE TRACK. THE STRENGTH IS IN QUESTION PRIMARILY
DUE TO THE UNCERTAINTY IN WHETHER THE STORMS WILL BE ELEVATED AS
HAIL ISN'T EXPECTED TO BE A BIG CONCERN WITH DAMAGING WINDS THE
PRIMARY CONCERN WITH THESE STORMS. THE TRACK IS IN QUESTION
PRIMARILY DUE TO THE IDEA THAT MCSS TYPICALLY FOLLOW THE
INSTABILITY GRADIENT AND A WNW TO ESE INSTABILITY GRADIENT WE
COULD SEE THE MCS TRACK A BIT MORE SE THAT CURRENT CAMS SUGGEST.
THIS WOULD LIKELY HAVE THE MCS ONLY IMPACT SW PARTS OF THE AREA.
THE SEVERE CONCERNS WITH THIS ARE FOCUSED ON THE DAMAGING WIND
ASPECT GIVEN THE STORM MODE (THOUGH WE CANNOT RULE OUT HAIL UP
TO AN INCH) BUT WILL BE IMPACTED BY WHETHER THESE STORMS ARE
ELEVATED. IF ELEVATED, STORMS WOULD LIKELY BE ONLY BORDERLINE
SEVERE AT WORST BUT IF THESE STORMS CAN BECOME SURFACE BASED AT
ANY POINT SEVERE WINDS WOULD BECOME MORE LIKELY AND WE WOULDN'T
BE ABLE TO RULE OUT A BRIEF QLCS TORNADO. THE LLJ WILL LIKELY BE
THE THING THAT GETS THIS GOING AND WILL LIKELY HELP MAINTAIN IT
INTO THE MORNING HOURS BUT IN ORDER FOR THIS TO NOT FALL APART
AS THE LLJ WEAKENS INTO THE DAY IT WILL HAVE TO BE STRONG ENOUGH
FOR ITS OWN COLD POOL TO DRIVE IT THE REST OF THE WAY. HOWEVER,
ONCE THESE STORMS BLOW THROUGH BY THE EARLY AFTERNOON IT MAY
VERY WELL LEAVE A QUIET DAY BEHIND IT AS THE FRONT SAGS FURTHER
SOUTH AND LIMITED FORCING AND RETURN FLOW WILL LIKELY NIX
POTENTIAL FOR THE REST OF THE DAY AND MOST OF THE NIGHT THOUGH
WE COULD SEE ANOTHER SHORTWAVE START TO PUSH IN FOR WEDNESDAY
MORNING THAT MAY REINTRODUCE CHANCES FOR AT LEAST SOUTHWEST WI.
KUROSKI
LONG TERM
ISSUED 142 PM CDT MON AUG 10 2026
WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY:
A SHORTWAVE TROUGH TRACKING ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS WILL REACH
WI BY MID WEDNESDAY MORNING. A CLUSTER OF THUNDERSTORMS IS
EXPECTED WITH THIS SHORTWAVE, SO THERE IS UNCERTAINTY ABOUT THE
TRACK OF THIS AREA OF STORMS. WILL THEY TRACK STRAIGHT ACROSS
SOUTHERN WI AS THEY STAY TIED TO THE UPPER JET? OR WILL THEY DIVE
SOUTHWARD WITH THE NOSE OF THE LLJ, 850MB FRONTAL BOUNDARY, AND
THE LOW-LEVEL INSTABILITY GRADIENT? THIS WILL DEPEND ON HOW
ORGANIZED THEY BECOME UPSTREAM DURING THE EARLY WED MORNING
HOURS. THE TREND IS FOR THE STORMS TO SPLIT AROUND SOUTHERN WI,
THUS WE ONLY HAVE LOW CHANCES (20 TO 35%) OF STORMS.
ON THURSDAY, YET ANOTHER SHORTWAVE IS EXPECTED TO SWING ACROSS
MN/IA/WI/IL, WHICH WILL BRING ANOTHER ROUND OF STORMS, MAINLY
ALONG AND SOUTH OF THE WI/IL BORDER. NORTHEAST WINDS WILL PUSH ALL
THE WAY THROUGH SOUTHERN WI BY FRIDAY IN THE WAKE OF A MORE
PROMINENT SHORTWAVE TROUGH THAT CROSSES LAKE SUPERIOR. FRIDAY
HIGHS WILL BE IN THE MID-UPPER 70S AND COOLER ALONG THE LAKESHORE.
THE PATTERN WILL START SHIFT A LITTLE AS WE GET INTO THE WEEKEND.
THE MID LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE THAT HAS BEEN PARKED OVER THE
SOUTHWEST AND SOUTH CENTRAL STATES IS EXPECTED TO SHIFT MORE
TOWARD THE SOUTHEAST STATES. THIS WOULD TEMPORARILY ALLOW A MORE
AMPLIFIED WAVE AND UPPER JET TO CROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS/GREAT
LAKES. IN TURN, THIS WOULD HELP USHER THE LOW LEVEL JET FARTHER
NORTH TOWARD CENTRAL WI AND BRING A CHANCE FOR STRONGER STORMS
TO SOUTHERN WI. THE TIMING OF THIS LOOKS LIKE SATURDAY NIGHT
INTO SUNDAY MORNING. OF COURSE, THIS IS A LONG WAY OUT AND
THINGS WILL CHANGE, BUT THE MODELS ARE STARTING TO LATCH ON TO
THIS IDEA.
HIGH PRESSURE IN THE WAKE OF THIS SYSTEM SHOULD BRING A PERIOD OF
QUIET WEATHER FOR THE FIRST HALF OF NEXT WEEK.
CRONCE
AVIATION
ISSUED 142 PM CDT MON AUG 10 2026
A FEW ISOLATED SHOWERS AND POCKETS OF MVFR CIGS TODAY CANNOT BE
RULED OUT BUT FOR THE MOST PART VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
THROUGH THE REST OF THE DAY WITH MOSTLY VFR CONDITIONS. HOWEVER,
INTO THE EVENING THROUGH THE EARLY OVERNIGHT THERE WILL BE SOME
CHANCES FOR STORMS IN SOUTHEAST WI MOSTLY RIGHT NEAR THE WI/IL
BORDER. THIS WILL CARRY SOME MVFR/IFR CIGS/VSBYS CONCERNS BUT
SHOULD BE LARGELY EXPECTED TO STAY VFR. SOME PATCHY FOG
OVERNIGHT MAY BRING MVFR VSBYS TO MUCH OF SOUTHERN WI OVERNIGHT.
INTO TUESDAY WE WILL BE MONITORING THE POTENTIAL FOR A LINE OF
STORMS TO ROLE THROUGH SOUTHERN WI TUESDAY MORNING WITH SEVERE
CONCERNS AND LIKELY PERIOD OF AT LEAST MVFR CIGS AND AT LEAST
IFR VSBYS WITH HEAVY RAINFALL. VFR CONDITIONS WILL LIKELY RETURN
BEHIND THOSE STORMS EXPECTED TO PUSH OUT BY THE EARLY AFTERNOON.
KUROSKI
MARINE
ISSUED 142 PM CDT MON AUG 10 2026
THE STATIONARY FRONT REMAINS OVER THE FAR SOUTHERN PORTION OF THE
LAKE WITH LIGHT VARIABLE WINDS ARE EXPECTED INTO TUESDAY AS
HIGH PRESSURE AROUND 30.0 INCHES REMAINS IN PLACE NORTH OF A
FRONTAL BOUNDARY PARKED OVER THE CORN BELT. OTHERWISE AN
UNSETTLED WEATHER PATTERN HAS SET UP OVER THE UPPER GREAT LAKES
FOR THE START OF THIS WEEK WHERE WEAK WAVES OF LOW PRESSURE WILL
CROSS THE REGION AND PRODUCE ROUNDS OF THUNDERSTORMS AT TIMES,
PRIMARILY OVER THE SOUTHERN HALF OF LAKE MICHIGAN. A FEW STRONG
STORM EXPECTED OVER FAR SOUTHERN WI TONIGHT AND AGAIN TUESDAY
LATE MORNING TO EARLY AFTERNOON.
KUROSKI
MKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
WI...NONE.
LM...NONE.
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