881
FXUS63 KMKX 240008
AFDMKX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MILWAUKEE/SULLIVAN WI
708 PM CDT WED SEP 23 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- HIGH SWIM RISK CONDITIONS THROUGH THE FIRST HALF OF THURSDAY
FOR ALL BEACHES ALONG LAKE MICHIGAN.
- SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL TEMPS CONTINUE FOR MUCH OF THE WEEK.
UPDATE
ISSUED 710 PM CDT WED SEP 23 2026
SHORELINE OBSERVING STATIONS AND CAMERAS CONTINUE TO SHOW STEADY
NORTHEASTERLY WINDS ALONG THE LAKE MI SHORELINE IN SOUTHERN WI,
WITH MODEST WAVE ACTION. WINDS ARE FORECAST TO TURN DUE EAST AND
MAINTAIN SPEED OVER THE LAKE TONIGHT, ALLOWING WAVES TO APPROACH
THE 4 FT MARK, LOCALLY HIGHER. AS SUCH, THE HIGH SWIM RISK
(BEACH HAZARDS STATEMENT) AND SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAIN IN
EFFECT THROUGH EARLY THURSDAY AFTERNOON (1:00 PM CDT
SPECIFICALLY). AN EARLY CANCELLATION OF BOTH HEADLINES REMAINS
POSSIBLE (IN THE EVENT OF SLIGHTLY UNDER-PERFORMING WINDS
TONIGHT), BUT OUR LATEST WAVE FORECASTS REMAIN EVER SO SLIGHTLY
ABOVE THE THRESHOLD.
SHEPPARD
SHORT TERM
ISSUED 121 PM CDT WED SEP 23 2026
THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT:
AN EAST TO WEST SFC RIDGE FROM SRN QUEBEC TO ONTARIO WILL
REORIENT MORE NORTH TO SOUTH FROM JAMES BAY TO MI BY FRIDAY.
UNTIL FRIDAY, SRN WI WILL REMAIN ON THE NRN PERIPHERY OF A
HIGHER MOISTURE CONTENT AIRMASS TO THE SOUTH. THUS INTERMITTENT
CLOUD COVER WILL CONTINUE AS LONG AS THE MOISTURE CONTENT IS
HIGH ENOUGH WITHIN AN AIRMASS OF MINOR LOW LEVEL INSTABILITY
OVER THE LAKE, AND OVER THE LAND DURING THE DAY. IN ADDITION,
THE SRN PERIPHERY OF A SHORTWAVE TROUGH TRACKING ACROSS ONTARIO
WILL BRING ADDITIONAL CLOUD COVER FOR THU NT INTO FRI AM. NO
PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME. A DRIER ELY FLOW WILL
THEN BECOME ESTABLISHED FRI AND INTO THE WEEKEND AS HIGH
PRESSURE SETTLES OVER MI. HIGHS IN THE MIDDLE TO UPPER 60S WILL
CONTINUE WITH LOWS IN THE 40S AND 50S.
GEHRING
LONG TERM
ISSUED 121 PM CDT WED SEP 23 2026
SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY:
THE EXTENDED MODELS HAVE FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE OVERALL
PATTERN THIS WEEKEND INTO NEXT WEEK. AN UPPER RIDGE WILL
PREVAIL OVER THE WRN GREAT LAKES THROUGH MON, ALTHOUGH A WEAK
SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL ATTEMPT TO RUN THROUGH THE RIDGE LATE SUN
AFTERNOON INTO MON AM. DRY LOW TO MID LEVEL AIR WILL LIKELY HOLD
AND NO PRECIPITATION IS FORECAST AT THIS TIME.
FINALLY, AN ORGANIZED UPPER TROUGH WILL MOVE INTO THE GREAT
PLAINS MON NT-TUE AND WITH SOME DEGREE OF CYCLOGENESIS
EXPECTED. A SWLY LOW LEVEL JET WILL BRING A RETURN OF HIGHER
MOISTURE CONTENT AIR FOLLOWED BY A COLD FRONT LATE TUE NT OR WED
AM. SHOWERS ARE LIKELY (60-70 PERCENT CHANCE) ALONG WITH A
SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS FOR TUE NT, LINGERING INTO WED.
HIGH TEMPS MAY RETURN TO THE LOWER 70S EARLY NEXT WEEK BEFORE
THE COLD FRONT ARRIVES.
GEHRING
AVIATION
ISSUED 700 PM CDT WED SEP 23 2026
DRY WEATHER CONTINUES THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD AND THE REST OF THE
WORK WEEK. LIGHT WINDS OUT OF THE NORTHEAST TURN DUE EAST
OVERNIGHT INTO THURSDAY MORNING. INTERMITTENT PERIODS OF
STRATOCUMULUS CLOUD CEILINGS AROUND 4,000 FT ALTITUDE EXPECTED,
WITH A FEW LOCALLY LOWER CEILINGS TO 2,000-3,000 FT POSSIBLE
AT TIMES (BRIEF MVFR).
SHEPPARD
MARINE
ISSUED 121 PM CDT WED SEP 23 2026
AN EAST TO WEST HIGH PRESSURE AREA AROUND 30.6 INCHES WILL REMAIN
FROM SOUTHERN QUEBEC TO ONTARIO THROUGH THURSDAY. MODEST EASTERLY
WINDS WILL CONTINUE, THEN BECOME EAST SOUTHEAST FOR THURSDAY
NIGHT INTO THE WEEKEND AS THE HIGH REORIENTS FROM THE NORTHERN
GREAT LAKES TO JAMES BAY. A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT
UNTIL 1 PM THU FROM SHEBOYGAN TO WINTHROP HARBOR BUT MAY BE
CANCELLED EARLY IF WINDS AND WAVES DECREASE A BIT.
GEHRING
MKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
WI...BEACH HAZARDS STATEMENT...WIZ052-WIZ060-WIZ066-WIZ071-WIZ072
UNTIL 1 PM THURSDAY.
LM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY...LMZ643-LMZ644-LMZ645-LMZ646 UNTIL 1 PM
THURSDAY.
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