242
FXUS63 KMKX 050416
AFDMKX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MILWAUKEE/SULLIVAN WI
1116 PM CDT SUN OCT 4 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- PATCHY FROST TONIGHT IN VALLEYS AND LOW LYING LOCATIONS.
- NO HAZARDS EXPECTED THIS WEEK WITH NEAR AVERAGE EARLY AUTUMN
TEMPERATURES.
SHORT TERM
ISSUED 1100 PM CDT SUN OCT 4 2026
MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT:
QUIET CONDITIONS CONTINUE MONDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE MOVES OVERHEAD
BRINGING LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS WITH QUIET FLOW ALOFT
SUGGESTIVE OF CLEAR SKIES. LATE MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY, THE
HIGH WILL PUSH TO THE EAST AND BRING LIGHT SOUTH WINDS BACK TO
THE REGION. WHILE SOME FRONTAL ACTIVITY COULD BE EXPECTED INTO
NORTHERN WI IT APPEARS AS THOUGH THIS IS LIKELY TO REMAIN TO THE
MOSTLY NORTH OF THE CWA BUT THERE REMAINS A CHANCE SOME OF THIS
ACTIVITY LEAKS INTO THE NORTHERN CWA. THE PRIMARY FORCING FOR
THIS ACTIVITY LOOKS TO BE FROM THE MIDLEVEL MOISTURE AND WAA.
PERHAPS SOME EFFECT FROM THE LLJ AS WELL BUT THE CONCERN FOR
PRECIP CHANCES IS THAT THE DRIER LOW LEVELS MAY INHIBIT MUCH OF
ANY PRECIP FROM REACHING THE GROUND. PERHAPS A PERIOD OF
SHOWERS BUT THE TIMEFRAME WOULD BE LIMITED AS THE MIDLEVEL
MOISTURE IS LIMITED IN SCOPE, CLEARING OUT EARLY IN THE DAY
TUESDAY. THEREAFTER, WINDS WILL INCREASE FROM THE SOUTH AS LOW
PRESSURE PUSHES IN FROM THE WEST. THE FRONT WILL TRAIL THROUGH
TUESDAY NIGHT THOUGH WITH LIMITED MOISTURE IN MODELS THIS IS
EXPECTED TO BE A DRY FRONT, MOSTLY ACTING AS A WIND SHIFT.
KUROSKI
LONG TERM
ISSUED 1100 PM CDT SUN OCT 4 2026
WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY:
ENSEMBLES GENERALLY SUGGEST THE QUIETER WEATHER PATTERN WILL
CONTINUE WITH HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING BACK INTO THE REGION LATER
IN THE WEEK. ALOFT, THINGS BECOME A BIT MORE ACTIVE WITH SOME
SHORTWAVE ACTIVITY SWINGING DOWN LATE IN THE WEEK BUT THE ISSUE
IS THAT THERE REMAINS TOO MUCH DRY AIR TO CAUSE MUCH OF ANY
PRECIP CHANCES. THE PATTERN WILL SWITCH UP INTO THE WEEKEND
LARGE SCALE RIDGING BUILDING OVERHEAD BEHIND A TROUGH SWEEPING
THROUGH FRIDAY. MODELS SUGGEST A MILD CHANCE FOR PRECIP WITH THE
TROUGH BUT A LOT OF UNCERTAINTY REMAINS WITH HOW THAT SHOULD
PAN OUT. OVERALL THE GENERAL PATTERN IS SUGGESTIVE OF LARGELY
DRY CONDITIONS UNTIL AT LEAST EARLY NEXT WEEK.
KUROSKI
AVIATION
ISSUED 1100 PM CDT SUN OCT 4 2026
QUIET CONDITIONS WITH LIGHT NORTHWEST WINDS TONIGHT BECOMING
MORE VARIABLE INTO MONDAY BUT CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN VFR THROUGH
THE TAF PERIOD. MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY WE MAY SEE A BRIEF
PERIOD OF SHOWERS TOWARD CENTRAL WI BUT THIS REMAINS UNCERTAIN.
ITS POSSIBLE THIS WOULD BRING MVFR CIGS/VSBYS BUT THIS LOOKS
VERY UNLIKELY AT THIS TIME.
KUROSKI
MARINE
ISSUED 1100 PM CDT SUN OCT 4 2026
NORTHWEST WINDS WILL GRADUALLY DECREASE TONIGHT INTO MONDAY AS
HIGH PRESSURE OF 30.2 INCHES ENTERS FROM THE WEST. A FEW
WATERSPOUTS REMAIN POSSIBLE ACROSS THE FAR NORTHERN EDGE OF THE
LAKE INTO TONIGHT.
LOW PRESSURE OF 29.4 INCHES WILL BUILD TOWARD THE HUDSON BAY
TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY. AHEAD OF THIS LOW, SOUTH SOUTHWEST
WINDS WILL INCREASE TUESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH WEDNESDAY AND
BECOME GUSTY. THERE REMAINS A RISK FOR GUSTS TO APPROACH GALES,
PARTICULARLY OVER THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE OPEN WATERS, AND WILL
CONTINUE TO BE MONITORED FOR POSSIBLE HEADLINES. THE LOW WILL
PULL A COLD FRONT ACROSS THE WATERS WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO
THURSDAY, DELIVERING SCATTERED SHOWERS AND SHIFTING WINDS TO
THE WEST NORTHWEST.
KUROSKI
MKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
WI...NONE.
LM...NONE.
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