011  
FXUS63 KMKX 100845  
AFDMKX  
 
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION  
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MILWAUKEE/SULLIVAN WI  
345 AM CDT WED SEP 10 2025  
   
KEY MESSAGES  
 
- ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS SHOULD MOVE EAST INTO SOUTH  
CENTRAL WISCONSIN THIS MORNING, AND MAY LINGER INTO THE  
AFTERNOON FURTHER TO THE EAST BEFORE ENDING. A RUMBLE OF  
THUNDER IS POSSIBLE.  
 
- THE WARMING TREND IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE, WITH HIGH  
TEMPERATURES WARMING TO ABOVE NORMAL VALUES BY THURSDAY AND  
FRIDAY, LINGERING INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.  
 
 
   
SHORT TERM  
 
ISSUED 345 AM CDT WED SEP 10 2025  
 
TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT:  
 
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS SHOULD CONTINUE TO SLOWLY SHIFT  
EAST INTO SOUTH CENTRAL WISCONSIN INTO THIS MORNING, AS THE MAIN  
AREA OF DIFFERENTIAL CVA SHIFTS THROUGH. THERE IS DECENT  
MOISTURE AT 700 MB AND ABOVE, WITH THE LOW LEVELS RATHER DRY PER  
AREA FORECAST SOUNDINGS. THUS, SOME OF THE SHOWERS MAY EVAPORATE  
BEFORE HITTING THE GROUND, WHICH LEADS TO MORE CONFIDENCE IN THE  
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED WORDING IN THE FORECAST. A RUMBLE OF  
THUNDER MAY OCCUR AS WELL, WITH VERY WEAK INSTABILITY PRESENT.  
 
THIS AREA MAY SHIFT FURTHER EAST INTO PARTS OF SOUTHEAST AND  
EAST CENTRAL WISCONSIN THIS AFTERNOON BEFORE ENDING, IF THE  
MOISTURE AND UPWARD VERTICAL MOTION CAN REMAIN VIABLE ENOUGH TO  
OVERCOME THE DRY LOW LEVELS. COULD SEE A RUMBLE OF THUNDER HERE  
TOO, IF INSTABILITY DEVELOPS PER FORECAST SOUNDINGS.  
 
OTHERWISE, MIDDLE TO HIGH CLOUDS SHOULD LINGER INTO TODAY, WITH  
SOME DIURNAL CUMULUS CLOUDS ALSO DEVELOPING THIS AFTERNOON.  
LIGHT SOUTH WINDS ARE EXPECTED TODAY, BECOMING SOUTHEAST NEAR  
LAKE MICHIGAN THIS AFTERNOON WITH A LAKE BREEZE. HIGHS SHOULD  
REACH THE MIDDLE 70S, WITH UPPER 70S IN SOUTHEAST WISCONSIN  
BEFORE THE LAKE BREEZE PUSHES IN.  
 
WINDS WILL WEAKEN TONIGHT WITH SOME PARTIAL CLEARING, WITH HIGH  
PRESSURE TO THE NORTHEAST OF THE REGION. THERE IS SOME POTENTIAL  
FOR FOG TO DEVELOP OVERNIGHT INTO EARLY THURSDAY MORNING GIVEN  
THIS SETUP. HOWEVER, CONFIDENCE IS LOW, AS LOW TEMPERATURES IN  
THE MIDDLE 50S OVER MOST AREAS MAY NOT GET LOWER THAN EXPECTED  
DEW POINTS THIS AFTERNOON (LOWER TO MIDDLE 50S). THUS, MAY JUST  
SEE SOME FOG IN THE LOW LYING AREAS. FOR NOW, WILL LEAVE OUT  
MENTION IN THE FORECAST.  
 
WOOD  
 
 
   
LONG TERM  
 
ISSUED 345 AM CDT WED SEP 10 2025  
 
THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY:  
 
UPPER LEVEL RIDING IS EXPECTED TO BUILD IN FROM THE SOUTHWEST  
LATE WEEK, WITH WARMING CONDITIONS AS SOUTHERLY LOW LEVEL FLOW  
ALSO DEVELOPS. DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED THURSDAY THROUGH THE DAY  
FRIDAY, UNDER DEPARTING SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE.  
 
MODELS ARE SHOWING A CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS LATER FRIDAY  
INTO EARLY SATURDAY, AS WARM AIR ADVECTION INCREASES AND A WEAK  
WAVE ROLLS THROUGH THE TOP OF THE RIDGE. THERE REMAINS A GOOD  
SIGNAL THAT HIGH TEMPS WILL HIT 80 DEGREES MOST PLACES FOR THE  
FIRST TIME THIS MONTH BY FRIDAY.  
 
THE LATEST ROUND OF MODELS HAVE COME INTO BETTER AGREEMENT FOR  
THE WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK, COMPARED TO 24 HOURS AGO.  
THERE IS FAIRLY GOOD CONSENSUS THAT UPPER LEVEL RIDGING WILL  
REMAIN IN PLACE THROUGH THIS PERIOD, WITH MAINLY DRY WEATHER AND  
ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES EXPECTED.  
 
DDV  
 
 
   
AVIATION  
 
ISSUED 345 AM CDT WED SEP 10 2025  
 
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS SHOULD CONTINUE TO SLOWLY SHIFT  
EAST INTO SOUTH CENTRAL WISCONSIN INTO THIS MORNING. THE LOW  
LEVELS ARE RATHER DRY, SO SOME OF THE SHOWERS MAY EVAPORATE  
BEFORE HITTING THE GROUND. A RUMBLE OF THUNDER MAY OCCUR TOWARD  
MADISON. THESE SHOWERS MAY SHIFT FURTHER EAST THIS AFTERNOON.  
 
OTHERWISE, MIDDLE TO HIGH CLOUDS SHOULD LINGER INTO TODAY.  
SCATTERED TO PERHAPS BROKEN DIURNAL CUMULUS AROUND 4000 FEET  
AGL OR SO SHOULD DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON. LIGHT SOUTH WINDS ARE  
EXPECTED TODAY, BECOMING SOUTHEAST NEAR LAKE MICHIGAN THIS  
AFTERNOON WITH A LAKE BREEZE.  
 
WINDS WILL WEAKEN TONIGHT WITH SOME PARTIAL CLEARING, WITH HIGH  
PRESSURE TO THE NORTHEAST OF THE REGION. THERE IS SOME  
POTENTIAL FOR FOG TO DEVELOP OVERNIGHT INTO EARLY THURSDAY  
MORNING. CONFIDENCE IS LOW, SO MAY JUST SEE SOME FOG IN THE LOW  
LYING AREAS.  
 
WOOD  
 
 
   
MARINE  
 
ISSUED 345 AM CDT WED SEP 10 2025  
 
LIGHT WINDS ARE EXPECTED TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY, UNDER THE  
INFLUENCE OF HIGH PRESSURE AROUND 30.4 INCHES THAT WILL SLOWLY  
MOVE EAST SOUTHEAST FROM NORTHERN ONTARIO TO SOUTHERN QUEBEC.  
HIGH PRESSURE AROUND 30.2 INCHES WILL THEN LINGER OVER NEW  
ENGLAND THIS WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK, WITH LOW PRESSURE  
AROUND 29.9 INCHES SHIFTING NORTHWARD THROUGH THE NORTHERN  
PLAINS. SOUTH WINDS WILL PICK UP ON SATURDAY, THEN BECOME  
GENERALLY EASTERLY SUNDAY INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.  
 
WOOD  
 
 
   
MKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES  
 
WI...NONE.  
LM...NONE.  
 
 
 
 
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