636
FXUS63 KMKX 231003 AAA
AFDMKX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MILWAUKEE/SULLIVAN WI
503 AM CDT WED SEP 23 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- HIGH SWIM RISK CONDITIONS THROUGH THE FIRST HALF OF THURSDAY
FOR ALL BEACHES ALONG LAKE MICHIGAN.
- SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL TEMPS CONTINUE FOR MUCH OF THE WEEK.
UPDATE
ISSUED 503 AM CDT WED SEP 23 2026
THE MAIN 500 MB LOW IS EXPECTED TO SLOWLY SLIDE SOUTHEAST OF THE
REGION TODAY AND TONIGHT. THE AREA OF LOW CLOUDS ASSOCIATED WITH
THIS CIRCULATION CONTINUES TO PUSH INTO PARTS OF SOUTHEAST AND
FAR SOUTHERN WISCONSIN EARLY THIS MORNING. THESE CLOUDS SHOULD
CONTINUE TO PUSH INTO THIS PART OF THE AREA INTO TODAY, BEFORE
GRADUALLY SHIFTING SOUTHWARD TONIGHT. THERE MAY BE A FEW
SPRINKLES IN SOUTHEAST WISCONSIN AS WELL.
LOW CLOUD PATCHES ARE OCCURRING ELSEWHERE ACROSS SOUTHERN
WISCONSIN, AND MAY LINGER INTO THIS MORNING FOR A TIME. SOME
WISCONSIN RIVER VALLEY FOG MAY DEVELOP INTO EARLY MORNING. THERE
SHOULD BE SOME DIURNAL STRATOCUMULUS DEVELOPMENT LATER TODAY
ACROSS THE AREA. SKIES MAY TRY TO CLEAR FOR A TIME TONIGHT,
THOUGH MORE MIDDLE TO HIGH CLOUDS MAY MOVE INTO WESTERN PARTS OF
THE AREA LATER TONIGHT INTO THURSDAY MORNING.
EAST NORTHEAST WINDS WILL BE GUSTY AT TIMES TODAY, BECOMING
WEAKER TONIGHT INTO THURSDAY. HIGHS TODAY SHOULD REACH THE
MIDDLE 60S OVER MOST OF THE AREA. LOWS TONIGHT IN THE UPPER 40S
TO LOWER 50S ARE FORECAST, THOUGH THESE MAY BE LOWER IF CLOUDS
STAY OUT OF THE AREA LATER TONIGHT.
THE BEACH HAZARDS STATEMENT FOR THE HIGH SWIM RISK CONDITIONS
CONTINUES UNTIL 1 PM CDT THURSDAY AFTERNOON FOR LAKE MICHIGAN
BEACHES FROM SHEBOYGAN COUNTY SOUTH TO KENOSHA COUNTY. GUSTY
ONSHORE WINDS TODAY INTO TONIGHT WILL HELP BRING WAVES OF 3 TO 6
FEET. WINDS WILL WEAKEN SOMEWHAT BY THURSDAY MORNING, WITH WAVES
OF 3 TO 4 FEET STILL EXPECTED. WAVES SHOULD REMAIN BELOW 4 FEET
BY EARLY THURSDAY AFTERNOON.
WOOD
SHORT TERM
ISSUED 1129 PM CDT TUE SEP 22 2026
CURRENT OVERNIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT:
CLEAR SKIES AND SUBSIDENCE WILL ALLOW OVERNIGHT LOWS TO DROP TO
THE LOW 50S OVER SOUTHEASTERN WI TO THE LOW 40S OVER CENTRAL
WI. PATCHY FOG IS EXPECTED IN THE WISCONSIN RIVER VALLEY.
THIS MORNING, SOME LOW CLOUDS MAY MOVE OVER SOUTHERN WISCONSIN
DURING THE POST-DAWN HOURS, TIED TO MOISTURE CIRCULATING AROUND
A LINGERING UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN CORN BELT.
WHILE WIDESPREAD SHOWERS ARE NOT EXPECTED, AN ISOLATED SPRINKLE
CAN'T BE RULED OUT AS THESE CLOUDS MOVE OVERHEAD FROM 5AM INTO
THE EARLY AFTERNOON. OTHERWISE IT'LL SHAPE UP TO BE A MOSTLY DRY
DAY WITH A MIX OF SUN AND CLOUDS. HIGHS WILL BE IN THE LOW TO
MID 60S AS COOL TEMPERATURES ALOFT CONTINUE TO CIRCULATE AROUND
THE BROAD AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE OVER EASTERN CANADA.
SIMILAR TEMPERATURES TO TONIGHT WILL OCCUR WEDNESDAY NIGHT WITH
LOWS RANGING FROM THE MID 40S WELL INLAND TO LOW 50S BY THE
LAKESHORE.
PERSISTENT EAST WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO DRIVE HIGH SWIM RISK
CONDITIONS AT ALL LOCAL BEACHES ALONG LAKE MICHIGAN AS HIGH
WAVES ARE BEING DRIVEN ONSHORE. DANGEROUS WAVE AND CURRENT
ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED THROUGH MIDDAY THURSDAY. SWIMMING IS NOT
ADVISED.
CMILLER
LONG TERM
ISSUED 1136 PM CDT TUE SEP 22 2026
THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY:
HIGH PRESSURE WILL PERSIST THROUGH FRIDAY KEEPING CONDITIONS
COOL AND DRY THROUGH THAT TIME. EXPECT DAILY HIGHS THURSDAY AND
FRIDAY IN THE MID TO UPPER 60S, WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS IN UPPER
40S TO LOW 50S.
BY SATURDAY HIGH PRESSURE OVER EASTERN CANADA WILL BEGIN TO
WEAKEN SOME, ALLOWING A WAVE OF WAA TO LEAN OVER EAST INTO THE
UPPER MS VALLEY REGION FROM THE NORTHERN GREAT PLAINS. SOME LOW
END POPS FROM 15 TO 30% MAY MOVE INTO AREAS WEST OF MADISON
SATURDAY AND THEN INTO THE REST OF THE AREA SATURDAY NIGHT INTO
EARLY SUNDAY. HOWEVER, THE HIGH PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO HOLD
FAST OVER THE UPPER GREAT LAKES AS A LOBE OF IT IS SQUEEZED
BETWEEN A LOW NEAR THE HUDSON BAY, AND A PROJECTED NOR'EASTER
OVER NEW ENGLAND. THIS CAUSES PRECIP CHANCES TO QUICKLY DIE OFF
SUNDAY MORNING AND DRY CONDITIONS TO THEN PERSIST AGAIN THROUGH
MONDAY NEXT WEEK. RAIN MAY RETURN NEXT TUESDAY AS A LARGER LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM FINALLY WORKS INTO THE CENTRAL MS RIVER VALLEY.
CMILLER
AVIATION
ISSUED 503 AM CDT WED SEP 23 2026
THE AREA OF LOW CLOUDS WITH CEILINGS OF 3500 TO 4000 FEET AGL
CONTINUES TO PUSH INTO PARTS OF SOUTHEAST AND FAR SOUTHERN
WISCONSIN EARLY THIS MORNING. SOME CEILINGS AS LOW AS 2500 FEET
AGL MAY OCCUR AT TIMES. THESE CLOUDS SHOULD CONTINUE TO PUSH
INTO THIS PART OF THE AREA INTO TODAY, BEFORE GRADUALLY SHIFTING
SOUTHWARD TONIGHT. THERE MAY BE A FEW SPRINKLES IN SOUTHEAST
WISCONSIN AS WELL.
LOW CLOUD PATCHES ARE OCCURRING ELSEWHERE ACROSS SOUTHERN
WISCONSIN, AND MAY LINGER INTO THIS MORNING FOR A TIME. SOME
WISCONSIN RIVER VALLEY FOG MAY DEVELOP INTO EARLY MORNING. THERE
SHOULD BE SOME DIURNAL STRATOCUMULUS CLOUD DEVELOPMENT LATER
TODAY ACROSS THE AREA, WITH CEILINGS AROUND 3500 FEET AGL.
SKIES MAY TRY TO CLEAR FOR A TIME TONIGHT, THOUGH MORE MIDDLE TO
HIGH CLOUDS MAY MOVE INTO WESTERN PARTS OF THE AREA LATER
TONIGHT INTO THURSDAY MORNING.
EAST NORTHEAST WINDS WILL BE GUSTY AT TIMES TODAY, BECOMING
WEAKER TONIGHT INTO THURSDAY.
WOOD
MARINE
ISSUED 1118 PM CDT TUE SEP 22 2026
HIGH PRESSURE WILL LARGELY REMAIN IN PLACE TO THE NORTHEAST OF
THE GREAT LAKES REGION THROUGH THURSDAY. GUSTY EAST TO NORTHEAST
WINDS ARE EXPECTED DURING THIS TIME WITH SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
CRITERIA WAVES LINGERING INTO THURSDAY MORNING. WINDS LOOK TO
GRADUALLY DIMINISH AND TURN EAST SOUTHEASTERLY TOWARD THE END OF
THE WEEK, AS THE HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM SLOWLY RETREATS EASTWARD
FOR A TIME BEFORE IT RETURNS LATE THIS WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT
WEEK AS A NOR'EASTER MOVES UP THE EASTERN SEABOARD AND NUDGES
THE HIGH BACK WEST.
CMILLER
MKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
WI...BEACH HAZARDS STATEMENT...WIZ052-WIZ060-WIZ066-WIZ071-WIZ072
UNTIL 1 PM THURSDAY.
LM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY...LMZ643-LMZ644-LMZ645-LMZ646 UNTIL 1 PM
THURSDAY.
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