328
FXUS63 KMKX 021832
AFDMKX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MILWAUKEE/SULLIVAN WI
132 PM CDT TUE JUN 2 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- INCREASINGLY WARM AND STILL LOW RELATIVE HUMIDITY DAYS
THROUGH THURSDAY.
- INCREASING HUMIDITY AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES FOR LATE THURSDAY
NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY.
SHORT TERM
ISSUED 132 PM CDT TUE JUN 2 2026
THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT:
A 1030 MB SFC HIGH OVER LAKE MI WILL GRADUALLY SHIFT TO LOWER MI
BY 12Z WED THEN TO THE LOWER GREAT LAKES AND ERN OHIO VALLEY BY
00Z THU. ALOFT THE NARROW UPPER RIDGE OVER THE UPPER MS RIVER
VALLEY WILL LEAN OVER INTO THE LOWER GREAT LAKES AND EXTEND SW
INTO THE CENTRAL USA FOR LATER WED INTO WED NT. THUS A VERY DRY
AND GRADUALLY WARMING AIRMASS WILL RESIDE OVER SRN WI THIS
AFTERNOON AND WED.
SSWLY WINDS AND WARM, MOIST ADVECTION WILL FINALLY INCREASE
INTO THU/THU NT AS A SHORTWAVE TROUGH AND WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE
APPROACHES FROM THE CENTRAL GREAT PLAINS. HIGH TEMPS WILL WARM
INTO THE MIDDLE TO UPPER 80S WITH COOLING NEAR LAKE MI IN THE
AFTERNOON. DEWPOINTS WILL INCREASE INTO THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 50S
BUT LOW RELATIVE HUMIDITY IS STILL FORECAST FOR THE AFTERNOON.
SUFFICIENT ELEVATED MOISTURE FOR SHOWERS AND POSSIBLY ISOLD
STORMS WILL ARRIVE THU NT AS A SWLY LOW LEVEL JET OF 30-35 KTS
AND PWATS NEAR 1.5 INCHES ARRIVE. HAVE INCREASED RAIN CHANCES
TO 50 PERCENT OVER SOUTH CENTRAL WI WITH SLIGHT CHANCES OVER FAR
SE WI.
GEHRING
LONG TERM
ISSUED 132 PM CDT TUE JUN 2 2026
FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY:
A SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL MOVE INTO SRN WI FRIDAY INTO SATUDAY,
WHERE WINDS WILL SHIFT SOUTHWESTERLY, INCREASING PRECIPITABLE
WATER VALUES UP TO 1.5 TO 1.6 INCHES PER LATEST ECMWF AND GFS
RUNS. THIS WILL ALSO BRING HIGHER CHANCES OF PRECIPITATION OF
70-80 PERCENT AND SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS DURING THIS PERIOD.
BY SATURDAY NIGHT, THE TROUGH AND WEAK COLD FRONT WILL PUSH OUT
OF THE REGION ALONG WITH ANY LINGERING PRECIP CHANCES AND AN UPPER
LEVEL RIDGE WILL MOVE IN FROM THE GREAT PLAINS, WHILE A SURFACE
HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE WILL BUILD IN FROM THE NORTHEAST. WINDS WILL
SHIFT FROM SOUTHWEST TO A NORTHERLY DIRECTION WITH THE COLD
FRONTAL PASSAGE. THIS WILL BRING IN SLIGHTLY COOLER AND DRIER AIR.
THIS PATTERN IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE INTO THE EARLY PORTION OF
NEXT WEEK.
ANOTHER MID-LEVEL TROUGH WILL MOVE IN FROM THE GREAT PLAINS WHICH
MAY BRING ANOTHER CHANCE FOR PRECIP ON TUESDAY WITH CHANCES AS
HIGH AS 20-30 PERCENT, BUT AN OVERALL RIDGE PATTERN OVER THE AREA
WILL KEEP CHANCES TO A MINIMUM.
GEHRING/SOERGEL
AVIATION
ISSUED 132 PM CDT TUE JUN 2 2026
VFR CONDITIONS THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH WEDNESDAY.
GEHRING
MARINE
ISSUED 132 PM CDT TUE JUN 2 2026
HIGH PRESSURE AROUND 30.4 INCHES WILL SETTLE OVER LAKE MICHIGAN
THIS AFTERNOON THEN MOVE TO LOWER MICHIGAN BY WEDNESDAY MORNING.
EXPECT LIGHT TO MODEST NORTH TO NORTHEASTERLY FLOW OVER CENTRAL
AND SOUTHERN LAKE MICHIGAN THIS AFTERNOON INTO THIS EVENING,
BUT WITH LIGHT WESTERLY WINDS DEVELOPING OVER THE NORTHERN ONE
THIRD OF THE LAKE. SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL THEN RETURN TO ALL OF
LAKE MICHIGAN FOR WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT AS THE HIGH
PRESSURE SLOWLY MOVES EAST OF THE REGION. MODEST SOUTH TO
SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL THEN PREVAIL OVER THE LAKE FOR THURSDAY
INTO SATURDAY MORNING FOLLOWED BY A WIND SHIFT TO THE NORTH
DURING A COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE SATURDAY AFTERNOON. SHOWER AND
STORM CHANCES WILL RETURN FRIDAY AND SATURDAY.
GEHRING
MKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
WI...NONE.
LM...NONE.
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