894  
FXUS63 KMKX 242044  
AFDMKX  
 
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION  
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MILWAUKEE/SULLIVAN WI  
344 PM CDT THU JUL 24 2025  
   
KEY MESSAGES
 
 
- LESSENED SCATTERED SHOWER AND STORM CHANCES BEFORE SUNSET THIS  
EVENING (~30% CHANCES).  
 
- HEAT LESS OF A CONCERN THE REST OF THIS AFTERNOON OWING TO  
LINGERING MID-LEVEL CLOUD COVER. HIGHEST HEAT INDICES WILL BE  
IN RACINE AND KENOSHA COUNTIES OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS.  
 
- CHANCES FOR THUNDERSTORMS (30-50%) REMAINS IN THE FORECAST FOR  
FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY. MORE CHANCES THEN RETURN MONDAY  
MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY.  
 
- HEAT AND HUMIDITY RETURNS SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY.  
 

 
   
SHORT TERM
 
 
ISSUED 317 PM CDT THU JUL 24 2025  
 
TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT:  
 
MID-LEVEL CLOUD COVER ALONG AND AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT  
HAS KEPT A LID ON HEAT CONCERNS THIS AFTERNOON. THE HOTTEST  
CONDITIONS ARE CURRENTLY OVER RACINE AND KENOSHA COUNTIES WHERE HEAT  
INDICES ARE BETWEEN 90 AND 95, AND SKIES HAVE REMAIN CLEAR TO  
MOSTLY SUNNY FOR A LARGER PORTION OF THE DAY. THE COLD FRONT  
WILL CONTINUE TO SINK SOUTHEAST THIS AFTERNOON, GRADUALLY  
LIMITING ANY REMAINING CONCERNS FOR UNCOMFORTABLE HEAT.  
 
A FEW SHOWERS HAVE FESTERED THIS MORNING AND INTO THE EARLY  
AFTERNOON ALONG THE COLD FRONT AND NEAR A REMNANT MCV FROM EARLY  
MORNING COVECTION OVER IOWA. CURRENT RAP ANALYSIS SHOWS THIS MCV  
MOVING OVER CENTRAL WI AT THIS TIME, WITH RADAR SHOWING WEAK  
SHOWERS AND STORMS POCKMARKING NORTH CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST  
WISCONSIN BEHIND THE MCV CLOSER TO THE SURFACE FRONT. WITH  
SHOWER AND STORM ACTIVITY FAVORING THE FRONT, THIS FEATURE  
SHOULD BE THE FOCUS OF ANY REMAINING STORM ACTIVITY THIS  
AFTERNOON AS IT SLOWLY MOVE SOUTHEAST. GIVEN VERY WEAK  
CAPE/LAPSE RATES OVER MOST OF THE REGION, STRONG STORMS ARE NOT  
ANTICIPATED.  
 
TONIGHT, SUBSIDENCE WILL MOVE IN BEHIND THE COLD FRONT ALONG  
WITH LIGHT WINDS. THE COLD FRONT WON'T FEATURE A PARTICULARLY  
GREAT PUSH OF DRY AIR BEHIND IT, AND DEW POINTS WILL REMAIN  
ELEVATED OVERNIGHT. WITH THESE INGREDIENTS, FOG IS EXPECTED TO  
FORM OVER MOST OF SOUTHERN WI OVERNIGHT.  
 
FOG SHOULD MIX OUT SHORTLY AFTER DAYBREAK. WE'LL REMAIN MOSTLY  
DRY ON FRIDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE MOVES IN AS THE COLD FRONT STALLS  
OVER NORTHERN IL. WHILE TEMPERATURES WILL COOL WITH HIGHS IN THE  
LOW TO MID 80S, DEW POINTS WILL REMAIN ELEVATED, MAKING IT FEEL  
MUGGY OUTSIDE.  
 
CMILLER  
 

 
   
LONG TERM
 
 
ISSUED 344 PM CDT THU JUL 24 2025  
 
SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY:  
 
WARM ADVECTION RETURNS FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY MORNING AS A  
WARM FRONT LIFTS NORTH TOWARD THE STATE. THERE ARE VARYING  
SOLUTIONS REGARDING HOW SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL EVOLVE SATURDAY  
MORNING INTO SATURDAY NIGHT. THE GFS, FAVORS A MORE AGGRESSIVE  
SOLUTION, GIVING RAIN TO MOST OF SOUTHERN WISCONSIN THROUGH  
SATURDAY. MOST CAMS AND THE ECMWF HOWEVER, SHOW ONLY A GLANCING  
BLOW OF RAIN AND STORMS ALONG THE WI/IL BORDER AND SOUTHEAST  
WISCONSIN SATURDAY MORNING AND EARLY AFTERNOON. GIVEN SOME OF  
THE UNCERTAINTY AND THE FRONTAL POSITION BEING DICTATED BY  
SHOWER AND STORM ACTIVITY ALONG THE STALLED FRONT ON FRIDAY,  
WE'LL MONITOR OBS AND MODEL TRENDS FOR A BIT BETTER AGREEMENT  
SATURDAY. IN ANY CASE, A BRIEF LULL IS EXPECTED SATURDAY  
EVENING/SUNDAY MORNING AS A SMALL AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE MOVES  
OVERHEAD.  
 
THE WARM FRONT FROM SATURDAY WILL FINALLY LIFT NORTH LATE SUNDAY  
MORNING INTO THE AFTERNOON, USHERING IN A RETURN OF THE HOT AND  
HUMID AIR MASS. HIGHS WILL BE IN THE LOW 90S, AMID DEW POINTS IN  
THE LOW 70S. HEAT WILL THEN LINGER INTO MONDAY AS WELL. MONDAY  
INTO WEDNESDAY, NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT AROUND THE RIDGE AND  
WIGGLES IN THE FLOW WILL THEN CAUSE MULTIPLE CHANCES FOR STORMS  
OVER THE UPPER MIDWEST INTO THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK, ALTHOUGH IT  
IS TOO EARLY TO PINPOINT WHERE THE BEST CHANCES WILL BE.  
 
CMILLER  
 

 
   
AVIATION
 
 
ISSUED 317 PM CDT THU JUL 24 2025  
 
SLIGHT CHANCES FOR SCATTERED WEAK SHOWERS AND STORMS INTO THIS  
EVENING WITH CHANCES WANING AFTER SUNSET. A MIXTURE OF  
CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST THIS EVENING FROM CLR TO BKN BUT WILL  
REMAIN VFR. TONIGHT, FOG IS EXPECTED TO FORM OVER MOST OF  
SOUTHERN WI WITH VIS POTENTIALLY AS LOW AS 1SM IN SPOTS. THIS  
FOG SHOULD LINGER UNTIL A FEW HOURS AFTER SUNRISE UNTIL IT MIXES  
OUT, WITH VFR RETURNING TOMORROW.  
 
WINDS WILL REMAIN LIGHT AND NORTHWESTERLY TONIGHT, GRADUALLY  
COMING AROUND TO EASTERLY FRIDAY MORNING.  
 
CMILLER  
 

 
   
MARINE
 
 
ISSUED 240 PM CDT THU JUL 24 2025  
 
A COLD FRONT IN ASSOCIATION WITH WEAK LOW PRESSURE JUST NORTH  
OF LAKE HURON WILL CONTINUE SOUTHEAST INTO TONIGHT BRINGING  
SCATTERED THUNDERSTORM CHANCES WITH IT. WINDS WILL BECOME LIGHT  
AND NORTHERLY BEHIND THE FRONT BY MIDNIGHT, AND THEN SLOWLY COME  
AROUND TO NORTHEASTERLY BY DAYBREAK ON FRIDAY. WITH THE EASING  
WINDS, BROAD SUBSIDENCE, AND LINGERING HIGH SURFACE DEW POINTS  
BEHIND THE FRONT, SOME MARINE FOG MAY FORM TONIGHT. HIGH  
PRESSURE WILL THEN BRIEFLY PASS OVER THE UPPER GREAT LAKES  
THROUGH FRIDAY, WITH LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS OVER THE NORTHERN  
HALF OF THE LAKE, AND NORTH WINDS OVER THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE  
LAKE.  
 
WINDS WILL COME AROUND TO SOUTHERLY FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY  
MORNING AS A WARM FRONT LIFTS NORTH OVER THE SOUTHERN THIRD OF LAKE  
MICHIGAN AGHEAD OF WEAK LOW PRESSURE. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS  
ARE EXPECTED TO PASS OVER THE LAKE THROUGH MUCH OF THE DAY AS  
THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM PASSES BY. WINDS BRIEFLY COME AROUND TO  
NORTHWESTERLY SUNDAY MORNING BEFORE RETURNING TO SOUTHERLY BY  
THE AFTERNOON, FOLLOWING ANOTHER WARM FRONT.  
 
CMILLER  
 

 
   
MKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
 
 
WI...NONE.  
LM...NONE.  

 
 

 
 
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