941
FXUS63 KMKX 021753
AFDMKX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MILWAUKEE/SULLIVAN WI
1253 PM CDT FRI OCT 2 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- PATCHY FROST & FOG POSSIBLE LATER TONIGHT, PARTICULARLY IN
LOW-LYING SPOTS AWAY FROM LAKE MICHIGAN.
- FEW SPRINKLES OR LIGHT SHOWERS POSSIBLE NORTH OF I-94 SATURDAY NIGHT,
WITH OTHERWISE DRY WEATHER INTO NEXT WEEK.
- ADDITIONAL PATCHY FROST POSSIBLE SUNDAY NIGHT & MONDAY NIGHT.
SHORT TERM
ISSUED 1255 PM CDT FRI OCT 2 2026
THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH SUNDAY:
SYNOPSIS/MESOANALYSIS: HIGH PRESSURE IS CENTERED OVER CENTRAL
MINNESOTA THIS AFTERNOON, AND WILL CONTINUE TO TRACK EAST INTO
SOUTHERN WISCONSIN DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS TONIGHT. THE
APPROACHING HIGH WILL RESULT IN MOSTLY TO ENTIRELY CLEAR SKIES,
ALONG WITH LIGHT/VARIABLE OR ENTIRELY CALM WINDS. THE SKY & WIND
CONDITIONS WILL ALLOW FOR EFFICIENT RADIATIONAL COOLING AND CHILLY
LOW TEMPERATURES TONIGHT. PATCHY FROST AND FOG ARE POSSIBLE NEAR
DAYBREAK, PARTICULARLY IN LOW-LYING, INLAND AREAS. MOVE ANY COLD-
SENSITIVE PLANTS INDOORS BEFORE HEADING TO BED THIS EVENING. HIGH
PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE EAST ON SATURDAY, ALLOWING WINDS TO TREND
SOUTH-SOUTHEASTERLY BY LATE MORNING. CURRENTLY ALONG THE WASHINGTON-
OREGON BORDER, AN UPPER DISTURBANCE WILL MOVE INTO THE NORTHERN
PLAINS ON SATURDAY AFTERNOON, PROGRESSING ACROSS LAKE SUPERIOR
SATURDAY NIGHT. A FEW LIGHT SPRINKLES OR SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN
AN ATTENDANT WARM ADVECTION REGIME SATURDAY NIGHT, WITH MOST
LOCATIONS EXPECTED TO STAY DRY. A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS SOUTHERN
WISCONSIN DURING EITHER THE LATE MORNING OR EARLY AFTERNOON HOURS ON
SUNDAY, WITH A DRY FRONTAL PASSAGE ANTICIPATED AT THIS TIME.
TONIGHT: BOUNDARY LAYER WILL BE QUICK TO DECOUPLE GIVEN CLEAR SKIES
AND LIGHT TO CALM SURFACE WINDS AHEAD OF ARRIVING HIGH PRESSURE.
THUS ANTICIPATING THAT THERE WILL BE PATCHY FOG AND FROST AROUND THE
AREA DURING THE PREDAWN HOURS, PARTICULARLY IN LOW-LYING SPOTS AWAY
FROM LAKE MICHIGAN. DEVELOPMENT WILL BE CONTINGENT ON UPPER CLOUDS
CURRENTLY OVER THE DAKOTAS STAYING NORTH OF THE AREA, WITH MOST
MODEL GUIDANCE IN AGREEMENT REGARDING A MORE NORTHERLY TRACK. HAVE
THUS LEANED THE FORECAST INTO ONE SUPPORTIVE OF PATCHY FOG & FROST
DEVELOPMENT BY DAYBREAK. NOT ANTICIPATING FOG TO BE DENSE ENOUGH NOR
FROST WIDESPREAD ENOUGH TO WARRANT HEADLINES. SLOW DOWN & USE LOW
BEAM HEADLIGHTS IF ENCOUNTERING FOG ON THE ROADS, AND BRING ANY COLD-
SENSITIVE PLANTS INDOORS.
SATURDAY NIGHT: CAN'T RULE OUT A FEW LIGHT SPRINKLES OR RAIN SHOWERS
AS WARM ADVECTION INCREASES AHEAD OF A DISTURBANCE CROSSING LAKE
SUPERIOR. BEST POTENTIAL FOR PRECIP WILL BE NORTH OF I-94, WHERE
PROXIMITY TO THE DISTURBANCE WILL BE GREATEST. HAVE INTRODUCED ~10-
15% PRECIP PROBABILITIES OVER THIS PART OF THE CWA IN THE AFTERNOON
UPDATE, AND WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR FOR CHANGES.
SUNDAY: COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS SOUTHERN WISCONSIN AT SOME POINT
DURING THE LATE MORNING OR EARLY AFTERNOON HOURS. MARGINAL
CONVERGENCE AT THE FRONT & AN ABSENCE OF ANY FORCING MECHANISMS
ALOFT POINT TOWARD A DRY FRONTAL PASSAGE AT THIS TIME. WILL
NONETHELESS MONITOR FOR POSSIBLE CHANGES THROUGH TOMORROW.
QUIGLEY
LONG TERM
ISSUED 1255 PM CDT FRI OCT 2 2026
SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY:
SYNOPSIS: SETTLING IN BEHIND THE SUNDAY FRONT, THE NEXT AREA OF HIGH
PRESSURE WILL MOVE ACROSS THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES DURING THE SUNDAY
NIGHT TO TUESDAY MORNING TIME FRAME. PRESENCE OF THE HIGH WILL
PROMOTE LIGHT SURFACE WINDS AND MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES FOR THE BEGINNING
OF THE WORK WEEK. THE COMBINATION OF SKY AND WIND CONDITIONS WILL BE
FAVORABLE FOR EFFICIENT RADIATIONAL COOLING BOTH SUNDAY NIGHT AND
MONDAY NIGHT, WITH AREAS OF FROST POSSIBLE. HIGH PRESSURE WILL
VACATE TO THE EAST OF THE AREA ON TUESDAY AFTERNOON, WITH THE NEXT
UPPER DISTURBANCE MOVING INTO THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES TUESDAY NIGHT
INTO WEDNESDAY. SAID DISTURBANCE WILL PULL A COLD FRONT ACROSS
SOUTHERN WISCONSIN EITHER LATE TUESDAY NIGHT OR EARLY WEDNESDAY
MORNING. PRECIP APPEARS UNLIKELY ALONG THE FRONT AT THIS TIME. MILD,
FALL-LIKE WEATHER WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE SECOND HALF OF THE WORK
WEEK BEHIND THE DEPARTING COLD FRONT.
SUNDAY NIGHT & MONDAY NIGHT: A NEWLY-ARRIVED CANADIAN AIR MASS &
SETTLING HIGH PRESSURE WILL CREATE FAVORABLE CONDITIONS FOR
EFFICIENT RADIATIONAL COOLING AND CHILLY OVERNIGHT LOWS. CURRENT
FORECASTS FROM THE NBM POINT TOWARD LOW TEMPS IN THE UPPER 30S TO
NEAR 40 AWAY FROM LAKE MICHIGAN, WHICH APPEAR REASONABLE FOR THE
TIME-BEING GIVEN THE SET UP. WILL BE MONITORING FOR SLIGHT DOWNWARD
ADJUSTMENTS AS THIS PORTION OF THE PERIOD DRAWS CLOSER, PARTICULARLY
IN THE TRADITIONALLY COOLER SPOTS TOWARD CENTRAL WISCONSIN, WHERE
PROBABILISTIC GUIDANCE IS INDICATING ~20% CHANCES OF OVERNIGHT LOWS
AT OR BELOW 36. GIVEN EXPECTED CONDITIONS, WILL NEED TO WATCH FOR
AREAS OF FROST DURING EACH OVERNIGHT PERIOD. WHETHER OR NOT ANY
FROST WILL BE WIDESPREAD ENOUGH FOR HEADLINES REMAINS UNCERTAIN AT
THIS TIME, WITH TRENDS BEING MONITORED INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. BE SURE
TO MOVE ANY COLD-SENSITIVE PLANTS INDOORS DURING EACH OVERNIGHT
PERIOD.
TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING: WILL BE MONITORING FOR
POSSIBLE LIGHT RAIN CHANCES ALONG A PASSING COLD FRONT. REALIZATION
OF PRECIP WILL BE FIGHTING A NUMBER OF LIMITING FACTORS, INCLUDING
VERY DRY PRE-FRONTAL AIR & MARGINAL FRONTAL CONVERGENCE/LIFT. HAVE
THUS CONTINUED A DRY FORECAST IN THE MID-DAY UPDATE, WHICH ALIGNS
WELL WITH NBM PRECIP PROBABILITIES NEAR 5%. WILL CONTINUE TO
EVALUATE FOR POSSIBLE CHANGES AS THIS PART OF THE PERIOD PULLS
CLOSER.
QUIGLEY
AVIATION
ISSUED 1255 PM CDT FRI OCT 2 2026
VFR FLIGHT CATEGORIES PREVAIL THROUGH THE PERIOD AT ALL TERMINALS.
WIDELY SCATTERED CUMULUS CLOUDS BASED NEAR FL050 MAY ATTEMPT TO
DEVELOP ALONG A WEAK LAKE BREEZE LATER THIS AFTERNOON IN SOUTHEAST
WISCONSIN, WITH ANY CLOUDS CLEARING AFTER SUNSET. WILL NEED TO
MONITOR FOR SCATTERED LAKE EFFECT CLOUDS LATER TONIGHT, THOUGH
CONFIDENCE IS TOO LOW TO JUSTIFY MENTIONS IN THE 18Z UPDATE. SHALLOW
GROUND FOG IS POSSIBLE NEAR DAYBREAK SATURDAY, PARTICULARLY IN LOW-
LYING INLAND AREAS, WITH CONFIDENCE ONCE MORE TOO LOW TO JUSTIFY ANY
MENTIONS IN THE CURRENT FORECAST. WILL BE MONITORING OBSERVATIONAL
TRENDS FOR POSSIBLE AMENDMENTS THROUGH TONIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE WILL
MOVE OVERHEAD THIS EVENING, RESULTING IN CALM OR LIGHT/VARIABLE
WINDS. WINDS WILL TREND SOUTH-SOUTHEASTERLY SATURDAY MORNING AS THE
HIGH MOVES EAST OF THE REGION.
QUIGLEY
MARINE
ISSUED 1255 PM CDT FRI OCT 2 2026
1026 MB HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE ACROSS LAKE MICHIGAN THIS EVENING,
BRINGING DECREASING & EVENTUALLY LIGHT/VARIABLE WINDS. WINDS WILL
TREND SOUTH-SOUTHWESTERLY SATURDAY AS 1010 MB LOW PRESSURE MOVES
TOWARD THE HUDSON BAY FROM THE CANADIAN PRAIRIES. THE LOW WILL PULL
A COLD FRONT ACROSS THE WATERS SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY, BRINGING
A WEST-NORTHWEST WIND SHIFT. SHOWERS COULD ACCOMPANY THE PASSING
FRONT, PARTICULARLY ACROSS THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE WATERS.
NORTHWEST WINDS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE DAY MONDAY, TAPERING
MONDAY NIGHT AS 1024 MB HIGH PRESSURE MOVES IN FROM THE NORTHERN
GREAT PLAINS.
A DEEPER AREA OF 994 MB LOW PRESSURE WILL BUILD TOWARD THE HUDSON
BAY TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY. SOUTH-SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL INCREASE IN
ADVANCE OF THE APPROACHING LOW TUESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH WEDNESDAY,
BECOMING GUSTY AT TIMES. WHILE NOT CURRENTLY EXPECTED TO BE
WIDESPREAD, A FEW GUSTS COULD APPROACH GALE-FORCE, PARTICULARLY OVER
THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE OPEN WATERS. WILL BE MONITORING FOR
POSSIBLE HEADLINES AS THIS PORTION OF THE PERIOD DRAWS CLOSER. THE
LOW WILL PULL A COLD FRONT ACROSS THE WATERS WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO
THURSDAY, BRINGING A WEST-NORTHWEST WIND SHIFT AND SCATTERED RAIN
SHOWERS. BEST POTENTIAL FOR RAIN IS CURRENTLY FAVORED OVER THE
NORTHERN THIRD OF THE OPEN WATERS. GENERALLY WESTERLY WINDS WILL
CONTINUE THROUGH FRIDAY AS 1020 MB HIGH PRESSURE MOVES NEAR OR JUST
SOUTH OF LAKE MICHIGAN.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND
NIGHT AHEAD OF THE NEXT AREA OF LOW PRESSURE. WILL BE MONITORING FOR
POTENTIAL HEADLINES AS THIS PORTION OF THE PERIOD DRAWS CLOSER.
QUIGLEY
MKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
WI...NONE.
LM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY...LMZ646 UNTIL 1 PM FRIDAY.
VISIT US AT WEATHER.GOV/MILWAUKEE
FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK, X, AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSMILWAUKEE
WWW.X.COM/NWSMILWAUKEE
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSMILWAUKEE
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.
Main Text Page