933
FXUS63 KMKX 211155
AFDMKX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MILWAUKEE/SULLIVAN WI
655 AM CDT WED OCT 21 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- PATCHY FOG WILL CONTINUE ACROSS EASTERN WI EARLY THIS MORNING,
WITH A FEW LOCALLY DENSE PATCHES. PATCHY FOG MAY REDEVELOP
ACROSS ALL OF SOUTHERN WISCONSIN TONIGHT INTO EARLY THURSDAY
MORNING.
- DRY WITH A GRADUAL WARMING TREND INTO SATURDAY NIGHT/SUNDAY,
THEN POSSIBLY SOME SHOWERS AND COOLER TEMPERATURES SUNDAY
NIGHT INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.
UPDATE
ISSUED 650 AM CDT WED OCT 21 2026
SOME PATCHY FOG THIS MORNING, INCLUDING SOME DENSE FOG PATCHES
WILL DISSIPATE OVER THE NEXT COUPLE HOURS LEAVING LARGELY CLEAR
SKIES THE REST OF THE DAY WITH LIGHT SW WINDS. SOME ADDITIONAL
PATCHY FOG TONIGHT WILL BE POSSIBLE GIVEN HIGH PRESSURE AND
LIGHT WINDS.
KUROSKI
SHORT TERM
ISSUED 100 AM CDT WED OCT 21 2026
TODAY AND TONIGHT:
TWIN HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEMS REMAIN DOMINANT ACROSS THE MIDWEST
CONUS TODAY AND TONIGHT, YIELDING DRY AND PLEASANT WEATHER FOR
SOUTHERN WI. HIGHS AROUND 70 DEGREES AND LOWS IN THE MID 40S TO
AROUND 50.
MAIN STORY TODAY IS SOME PATCHY FOG THAT HAS DEVELOPED ACROSS
EASTERN WI, WHICH WILL LINGER THROUGH EARLY THIS MORNING AND
BURN OFF A FEW HOURS AFTER SUNRISE. THE SATELLITE SIGNATURE FOR
THESE PATCHES OF FOG CURRENTLY SPANS FROM A BURLINGTON TO WEST
BEND TO SHEBOYGAN LINE EAST TO THE SHORELINE; THIS IS WHERE WE
COULD (POTENTIALLY) SEE SOME LOCALLY DENSE PATCHES OF FOG
LINGERING INTO THE AM COMMUTE. THAT SAID, AS OF RIGHT NOW (1:00
AM), DOT CAMERAS REVEAL THAT THE FOG IS 'PATCHY AT BEST', BARELY
OBSTRUCTING VISIBILITY FROM MOST CAMERA ANGLES. WE WILL CONTINUE
TO MONITOR, AND ISSUE AN SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT (OR LOCALIZED
DENSE FOG ADVISORY) IF TRENDS WARRANT. JANESVILLE AIRPORT HAS
REPORTED SOME PATCHY FOG AS WELL, BUT ANY FOG WEST OF THE
AFOREMENTIONED LINE IS LIKELY HYPER-LOCALIZED TO RIVER VALLEYS
AND LOW-LYING MARSHY AREAS.
SIMILARLY, LATE TONIGHT INTO EARLY THURSDAY MORNING, WE COULD
SEE SOME PATCHY FOG DEVELOP AND BECOME LOCALLY DENSE. THIS TIME,
IT COULD DEVELOP ACROSS ALL OF SOUTHERN WI.
SHEPPARD
LONG TERM
ISSUED 100 AM CDT WED OCT 21 2026
THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY:
A SECOND HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM TRACKS SOUTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE
GREAT LAKES REGION THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY, ALLOWING CALM AND MILD
WEATHER TO PERSIST THROUGH THE END OF THE WORK WEEK. NOCTURNAL
COOLING COULD LEAD TO ADDITIONAL PERIODS OF GROUND FOG IN THE
EARLY MORNING HOURS OF THURSDAY AND FRIDAY, WITH MOSTLY CLEAR
SKIES AND CALM WINDS FORECAST. A WEAK EASTERLY LAKE BREEZE IS
POSSIBLE THURSDAY, WITH A SYNOPTIC (AREA-WIDE) 10 MPH
SOUTHEASTERLY BREEZE DEVELOPING THROUGH THE DAY FRIDAY. AS SUCH,
WE EXPECT INLAND HIGHS AROUND 70 DEGREES THURSDAY AND FRIDAY,
WITH HIGHS IN THE MID 60S FOR THE EAST EDGE OF THE STATE. DRY
WEATHER AND SIMILAR TEMPERATURES CONTINUE INTO THE DAYTIME HOURS
OF SATURDAY, WITH A SOUTH BREEZE AS THE HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM
DEPARTS EASTWARD.
MODELS SHOW FAIR AGREEMENT ON A TROUGH / UPPER LOW TRACKING EAST
ACROSS CANADA THIS WEEKEND, PUSHING OUT THE PERSISTENT UPPER-LEVEL
RIDGING ACROSS THE MIDWEST AND YIELDING MORE ZONAL FLOW. SURFACE
LOW PRESSURE OVER THE NORTHERN GREAT PLAINS ON FRIDAY LIFTS
NORTHWARD TO MERGE WITH THIS FEATURE INTO THE WEEKEND, TRACKING
EAST ACROSS ONTARIO CANADA AND EVENTUALLY DRAGGING A SW TO NE
ORIENTED COLD FRONT ACROSS WI. WE EXPECT THIS COLD FRONT TO REACH
WI LATE SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY (5-15% PRECIP CHANCES), WHERE
IT COULD EITHER STALL OVER CENTRAL PORTIONS OF THE STATE OR CROSS
OUR REGION AND STALL JUST SOUTH OF THE STATE BORDER. SOME MORE
SUBSTANTIAL PRECIP CHANCES (20-40%) WOULD THEN ARRIVE SUNDAY NIGHT
THROUGH TUESDAY AS A SEPARATE 500MB TROUGH PHASES WITH THE STALLED
FRONTAL BOUNDARY AND PROVIDES SOME ASCENT. HIGH PRESSURE THEN
TRACKS SOUTHEASTWARD FROM CANADA, CROSSING THE DAKOTAS MONDAY
NIGHT INTO TUESDAY BEFORE TURNING EAST INTO OUR REGION. THIS WOULD
SLOWLY FORCE THE FRONTAL ZONE AWAY AND LOWER PRECIP CHANCES, BUT
ALSO DELIVER SOME COOLER AIR EARLY TO MID NEXT WEEK. MODELS VARY
SUBSTANTIALLY ON HOW COOL THINGS COULD GET, BUT FOR NOW WE'RE
STICKING WITH THE MIDDLE GROUND OF HIGHS IN THE 50S AND LOWS IN
THE 30S/40S.
SHEPPARD
AVIATION
ISSUED 655 AM CDT WED OCT 21 2026
SOME PATCHY FOG THIS MORNING (LARGELY MVFR), INCLUDING SOME
DENSE FOG PATCHES WILL DISSIPATE OVER THE NEXT COUPLE HOURS
LEAVING LARGELY CLEAR SKIES THE REST OF THE DAY WITH LIGHT SW
WINDS. A WEAK LAKE BREEZE IS POSSIBLE LATER TODAY NEAR THE LAKE
CHANGING WINDS TO SSE. SOME ADDITIONAL PATCHY MVFR/IFR FOG
TONIGHT WILL BE POSSIBLE GIVEN HIGH PRESSURE AND LIGHT WINDS.
KUROSKI
MARINE
ISSUED 100 AM CDT WED OCT 21 2026
HIGH PRESSURE AROUND 30.5 INCHES OVER SOUTHERN QUEBEC WILL SLOWLY
DRIFT EAST THROUGH TODAY. ANOTHER HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM AROUND
30.4 INCHES WILL MOVE IN FROM THE NORTHERN PLAINS LATER IN THE
WEEK. WINDS WILL REMAIN LIGHT TO MODEST THROUGH THE WEEK.
INCREASING SOUTHEAST WINDS FRIDAY INTO FRIDAY NIGHT MAY BECOME
BREEZY SOUTH WINDS ON SATURDAY INTO SATURDAY NIGHT, AS LOW
PRESSURE MOVES FROM THE NORTHERN PLAINS INTO HUDSON BAY. A COLD
FRONT SHOULD MOVE SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE REGION SUNDAY INTO MONDAY,
SHIFTING WINDS TO THE NORTH AND NORTHEAST BEHIND IT.
SHEPPARD
MKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
WI...NONE.
LM...NONE.
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