474
FXUS63 KMKX 200640
AFDMKX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MILWAUKEE/SULLIVAN WI
1240 AM CST FRI FEB 20 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- RAIN WILL TRANSITION TO SNOW WEST TO EAST THROUGH THIS MORNING,
WITH IMPACTFUL ACCUMULATING SNOW EXPECTED WEST OF A LINE FROM
JANESVILLE TO FOND DU LAC. A WINTER STORM WARNING AND WINTER
WEATHER ADVISORY ARE IN EFFECT FOR THESE AREAS.
- GUSTY WEST TO NORTHWEST WINDS ARE EXPECTED FOR MUCH OF THE
REGION THIS MORNING THROUGH EARLY THIS AFTERNOON. A WIND
ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT.
- OCCASIONAL CHANCES FOR FLURRIES / LIGHT SNOW THIS WEEKEND,
ESPECIALLY SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY MORNING (10-40%
CHANCES).
SHORT TERM
ISSUED 1240 AM CST FRI FEB 20 2026
TODAY AND TONIGHT:
AS LOW PRESSURE PIVOTS FROM EASTERN IA THROUGH SOUTHERN WI
OVERNIGHT INTO FRIDAY MORNING, WE EXPECT A GRADUAL WEST TO EAST
TRANSITION FROM RAIN TO SNOW. THIS TRANSITION IS EITHER RIGHT ON
TRACK OR ROUGHLY 1 HOUR SLOWER THAN PRIOR EXPECTATIONS. EXPECTED
SNOW TOTALS REMAIN AS STATED PREVIOUSLY. 3 TO 8 INCHES POSSIBLE
IN THE WINTER STORM WARNING AREA, IOWA, LAFAYETTE, AND SAUK
COUNTIES, WITH THE HIGHEST POTENTIAL TOWARDS THE WESTERN EDGE OF
EACH COUNTY. 2 TO 4 INCHES WITH LOCALLY HIGHER TOTALS TO 6 IN
THE WINTER WX ADVISORY AREA, COLUMBIA, DANE, GREEN, GREEN LAKE,
AND MARQUETTE COUNTIES, AGAIN WITH THE HIGHEST TOTALS FURTHER
WEST. THIS WILL BE A 'WET' SNOW, AND ACCUMULATIONS WILL BE
SLUSHY. THE ONLY NOTEWORTHY TREND AS FAR AS THESE AMOUNTS GO
HAS BEEN A REFOCUSING OF THE HIGHER TOTALS SLIGHTLY FURTHER
NORTH AND WEST. AS SUCH, IT'S POSSIBLE WE WILL HAVE TO DOWNGRADE
LAFAYETTE COUNTY FROM A WARNING TO AN ADVISORY, AND POSSIBLY
UPGRADE MARQUETTE COUNTY TO A WARNING. WE'LL KEEP YOU POSTED. AS
WITH ANY MIXED PRECIP EVENT, CHANGES MAY OCCUR ON SHORT NOTICE.
EAST OF THE ADVISORY AREA, IT'S STILL LOOKING 'TOO LITTLE TOO
LATE' FOR THE TRANSITION TO SNOW, WITH FLAKES LIKELY TO MIX IN
AT SOME POINT THIS MORNING, BUT STRUGGLE TO ACCUMULATE DUE TO
WARMER SURFACE TEMPS. STILL, WE'LL HAVE TO WATCH FOR SOME SLICK
SPOTS ON PAVEMENT.
WE'VE ADDED A WIND ADVISORY FOR ALL EXCEPT CENTRAL / EAST-
CENTRAL WI, WITH CONCERNS FOR THE WEST TO NORTHWEST WIND GUSTS
ON THE SOUTHWEST SIDE OF THE LOW PRESSURE TO REACH OUR 45 MPH
CRITERIA. THOUGH WE'RE NOT PERFECTLY CONFIDENT IN REACHING
CRITERIA, THE COMBINATION OF STICKY WET SNOW AND GUSTY WINDS
(WHERE THE WINTER STORM WARNING AND WIND ADVISORY OVERLAP) POSES
A THREAT TO TREE BRANCHES (AND THUS TO POWER LINES), PLUS THE
ADDED TRAVEL THREAT TO HIGH PROFILE VEHICLES.
WINDS GRADUALLY RAMP DOWN INTO THIS AFTERNOON, WITH SOME SLIGHT
POTENTIAL FOR FLURRIES (OR EVEN A STRAY SNOW SHOWER) TO LINGER
INTO THIS AFTERNOON, MAINLY TOWARDS EAST-CENTRAL WI. OVERNIGHT
LOWS IN THE UPPER TEENS TO UPPER 20S EXPECTED.
SHEPPARD
LONG TERM
ISSUED 1240 AM CST FRI FEB 20 2026
SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY:
A WEAK SURFACE PRESSURE TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO LINGER IN THE WAKE OF
THE DEPARTED LOW PRESSURE, ORIENTED FROM THE UP OF MI TO CENTRAL
LOWER MI. AS THIS FEATURE SAGS SOUTH LATER SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY, IT
WILL INTERACT WITH A PASSING UPPER TROUGH TO PRODUCE SOME CHANCES
FOR FLURRIES OR LIGHT SNOW (ESP SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY MORNING).
A NORTHWEST BREEZE IS EXPECTED SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY AS ARCTIC
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS SOUTHWARD TOWARD THE DAKOTAS / MN, LEADING
TO SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES. PREDOMINANTLY DRY AND
QUIET WEATHER LOOKING LIKELY MONDAY INTO TUESDAY. TEMPERATURES
BEGIN AN UPWARD TREND INTO TUESDAY AS SOUTHERLY FLOW DEVELOPS
AHEAD OF THE NEXT SYSTEM.
MODELS CURRENTLY FAVOR A CLIPPER SYSTEM DEVELOPING OVER THE NORTHERN
PLAINS MONDAY NIGHT AND TRACKING EASTWARD PAST OUR REGION TUESDAY
INTO WEDNESDAY. PLENTY OF DISPERSION IN THE MODELS ON THE INTENSITY
AND TRACK OF THIS SYSTEM, AS WELL AS WHETHER OR NOT A SECONDARY
500MB SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL FOLLOW CLOSELY BEHIND IT, BUT THE COMMON
THREAD (FOR ALL BUT A FEW ENSEMBLE MEMBERS) IS LITTLE TO NO QPF TO
WORK WITH (UNTIL THURSDAY AND BEYOND). DEPENDING ON THE TRACK AND
INTENSITY, WE COULD WIND UP WITH LIGHT RAIN CHANCES OR LIGHT SNOW
CHANCES AS THE SYSTEM PASSES, WITH EITHER ABOVE NORMAL OR NEAR
NORMAL TEMPERATURES.
SHEPPARD
AVIATION
ISSUED 1240 AM CST FRI FEB 20 2026
RAIN SHOWERS CONTINUE OVERNIGHT, WITH A FEW EMBEDDED
THUNDERSTORMS REMAINING POSSIBLE FOR THE FIRST FEW HOURS PAST
MIDNIGHT. CEILINGS CONTINUE TO GRADUALLY FALL FROM MVFR TO IFR,
WITH POCKETS OF LIFR AS WELL. A RAIN TO SNOW TRANSITION
GRADUALLY PROGRESSES WEST TO EAST OVERNIGHT INTO FRIDAY MORNING,
RESULTING IN DROPOUTS IN VISIBILITY. WHERE THIS TRANSITION
ARRIVES EARLY ENOUGH (MAINLY KMSN AND FURTHER WEST), SOME SLUSHY
ACCUMULATIONS MAY OCCUR, WITH SOME LOCALLY HEAVY ACCUMULATIONS
POSSIBLE TOWARDS KLNR, KDLL, AND FURTHER WEST. GUSTY WEST TO
NORTHWEST WINDS ARRIVE IN A SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST MANNER AROUND
AND AFTER DAWN ON FRIDAY, ACHIEVING 30 TO 40 KNOT GUSTS. WET
SNOW WILL THEN TAPER OFF IN A WEST TO EAST MANNER, LEAVING MOST
AREAS DRY BY NOON CST. KSBM WILL HANG ON TO A PROB30 GROUP IN
THE TAF INTO FRIDAY AFTERNOON, GIVEN SOME POTENTIAL FOR LIGHT
SNOW TO LINGER IN EAST-CENTRAL WI. SOME FLURRIES ELSEWHERE
CANNOT BE RULED OUT. WINDS SLOWLY BEGIN TO SETTLE AND CLOUD
CEILINGS IMPROVE TO MVFR LEVELS INTO THE AFTERNOON. CEILINGS MAY
LINGER AT MVFR LEVELS INTO FRIDAY NIGHT, THOUGH THERE IS SOME
POTENTIAL FOR IT TO SCATTER OUT.
SHEPPARD
MARINE
ISSUED 1240 AM CST FRI FEB 20 2026
LOW PRESSURE OF 29.2 INCHES WILL TRACK NORTHEASTWARD ACROSS
NORTHERN ILLINOIS / SOUTHEASTERN WISCONSIN OVERNIGHT, CROSS
CENTRAL LAKE MICHIGAN FRIDAY MORNING, THEN EXIT EASTWARD (OVER
LAKE HURON) AND DIMINISH RAPIDLY FRIDAY EVENING. FOR NORTHERN
PORTIONS OF LAKE MICHIGAN, WE EXPECT GUSTY EAST TO NORTHEAST
WINDS THROUGH THE COURSE OF THIS EVENT, WITH A FEW GUSTS TO GALE
FORCE POSSIBLE LATE TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY MORNING. FOR THE SOUTHERN
HALF OF THE LAKE, BREEZY EAST TO NORTHEAST WINDS FOR THE EARLY
OVERNIGHT HOURS, VEERING SOUTH AND ACCELERATING AS THE LOW
APPROACHES. AS THE LOW CROSSES CENTRAL PORTIONS OF THE LAKE
FRIDAY MORNING, WINDS VEER WEST AND ACCELERATE TO GALE FORCE OVER
THE SOUTHERN HALF. A GALE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT OVER THE
SOUTHERN HALF OF THE LAKE FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY EVENING
FOR WEST GALES TO AROUND 40 KNOTS.
NORTHWEST WINDS GRADUALLY SUBSIDE AS THE LOW PRESSURE DEPARTS AND
WEAKENS FRIDAY NIGHT. NORTHWEST TO NORTH WINDS CONTINUE THROUGH
THE WEEKEND AND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK AS ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS SOUTHWARD TOWARDS THE DAKOTAS / MINNESOTA. THESE WINDS WILL
BECOME GUSTY SUNDAY INTO MONDAY AS THE ARCTIC HIGH DRAWS CLOSER,
AND COULD REACH GALE FORCE SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY MORNING.
THE ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE ERODES RAPIDLY MONDAY EVENING, ALLOWING
WINDS TO SUBSIDE. THE REMNANTS OF THIS HIGH PRESSURE PUSH EAST OF
THE LAKE AS A WEAK SURFACE PRESSURE RIDGE, WORKING WITH A
DEVELOPING LOW PRESSURE OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS TO DRIVE BREEZY
SOUTH WINDS INTO TUESDAY.
SHEPPARD
MKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
WI...WINTER STORM WARNING...WIZ056-WIZ062-WIZ067 UNTIL NOON FRIDAY.
WIND ADVISORY...WIZ056-WIZ057-WIZ062-WIZ063-WIZ064-WIZ065-
WIZ066-WIZ067-WIZ068-WIZ069-WIZ070-WIZ071-WIZ072...6 AM
FRIDAY TO 3 PM FRIDAY.
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY...WIZ046-WIZ047-WIZ057-WIZ063-WIZ068
UNTIL NOON FRIDAY.
LM...GALE WARNING...LMZ080-LMZ671-LMZ673-LMZ675-LMZ777-LMZ779-
LMZ872-LMZ874-LMZ876-LMZ878...6 AM FRIDAY TO 10 PM FRIDAY.
GALE WARNING...LMZ567-LMZ669-LMZ868-LMZ870...11 AM FRIDAY TO 9
PM FRIDAY.
GALE WARNING...LMZ643...11 AM FRIDAY TO 7 PM FRIDAY.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY...LMZ643 UNTIL 11 AM FRIDAY.
GALE WARNING...LMZ644-LMZ645-LMZ646...8 AM FRIDAY TO 7 PM
FRIDAY.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY...LMZ644-LMZ645-LMZ646 UNTIL 8 AM FRIDAY.
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