303  
FXUS63 KMKX 242024  
AFDMKX  
 
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION  
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MILWAUKEE/SULLIVAN WI  
324 PM CDT WED JUL 24 2024  
   
KEY MESSAGES
 
 
- HIGH PRESSURE WILL DOMINATE THE LATTER HALF OF THE WEEK WITH  
AT OR JUST BELOW AVERAGE TEMPERATURES.  
 
- HEAT RETURNS SUNDAY INTO THE BEGINNING OF NEXT WEEK.  
 
- POTENTIAL FOR HEAVY RAINFALL SUNDAY INTO EARLY TUESDAY  
 

 
   
SHORT TERM
 
 
ISSUED 325 PM CDT WED JUL 24 2024  
 
TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY:  
 
A BROAD SURFACE RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL SETTLE IN ACROSS THE  
GREAT LAKES WITH WINDS ALOFT COMING IN OUT OF THE NORTH, HELPING  
TO USHER IN COLDER AND DRIER AIR INTO THE REGION. TEMPERATURES  
WILL BE A BIT BELOW NORMAL OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS AS THE RIDGE  
DRIFTS OFF TO THE EAST. IF ANYTHING, THE MAIN CHALLENGE WILL BE  
WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR ANY FOG IN THE WISCONSIN RIVER VALLEY  
AND OTHER LOW SPOTS AROUND DAYBREAK. OTHERWISE, EXPECT LIGHT  
WINDS AND COOLER TEMPS THROUGH THE NEXT FEW DAYS.  
 
HALBACH  
 

 
   
LONG TERM
 
 
ISSUED 325 PM CDT WED JUL 24 2024  
 
FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY:  
 
TEMPERATURES WILL START REBOUNDING TO NEAR/SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL  
STARTING OUT ON SATURDAY AS THE RIDGE PROPAGATES OFF TO THE EAST  
AND SOUTHERLY RETURN FLOW KICKS IN.  
 
THE NEXT CHANCE FOR ANY CONVECTION APPEARS TO COME ON SUNDAY AS  
A MID LEVEL SYSTEM CURRENTLY IN THE SOUTHERN PLAINS EJECTS  
NORTHWARD THROUGH THE SOUTHERLY FLOW. THE GFS AND ECMWF HAVE  
GENERALLY SHOWN A SIMILAR SITUATION JUST WITH SOME MINOR TRACK  
DIFFERENCES WHICH COULD AFFECT PRECIP CHANCES. THE PAST FEW RUNS  
OF THE GFS HAVE BEEN FURTHER WEST IN RESPECT TO THE ECMWF, WHICH  
BRINGS A BETTER CHANCE FOR RAIN/STORMS INTO SOUTHERN WI WHILE  
THE EC PUSHES IT MORE INTO MICHIGAN...AT LEAST FOR THE FIRST  
WAVE ON SUNDAY. DUE TO THE SYSTEM ORIGINATING IN THE SOUTHERN US  
AND BEING ABLE TO TAP INTO THE GULF, THE MAIN CONCERN FOR THIS  
SETUP APPEARS TO BE WITH HEAVY RAIN. 850-925MB MOISTURE  
TRANSPORT RAMPS UP ON SUNDAY AS THE SYSTEM MOVES IN AS WITH PWS  
GOING UP TO AROUND 2"+. THERMAL PROFILES SHOW A DEEP, TROPICAL-  
ISH PROFILE WITH SKINNY CAPE FROM ABOVE 700MB. AT THE MOMENT,  
THE LONG TERM GUIDANCE IS SUGGESTING TWO MAIN PERIODS OF  
CONVECTION WITH THE FIRST BEING ON SUNDAY AHEAD OF THE SOUTHERLY  
STREAM TROUGH AND ANOTHER ROUND ON MONDAY GOING INTO EARLY  
TUESDAY AS A SECONDARY MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH FORMS ACROSS  
THE CENTRAL PLAINS. THIS SECONDARY FEATURE WILL LIKELY PULL A  
COLD FRONT THROUGH THE REGION AND SHUNT THE MOISTURE LADEN AIR  
FURTHER EAST. SEVERE-WISE, THE DETAILS ARE STILL FUZZY AT THE  
MOMENT BUT THE FIRST ROUND VIA THE GFS WOULD PROVIDE THE  
STRONGER MID LEVEL WINDS WHILE THE ECMWF WOULD POTENTIAL HAVE A  
BETTER SETUP WITH ROUND 2...BUT A LOT HAS TO COME TOGETHER. FOR  
NOW, THE MAIN SIGNAL APPEARS TO BE WITH HEAVY RAINFALL  
POTENTIAL DUE TO THE EXPECTED HIGH PWS.  
 
AS FOR THE HEAT, WE DO WARM UP STARTING SUNDAY BUT HEAT INDICES  
SHOULD STAY BELOW ADVISORY LEVELS AND STAY MORE IN THE 90-95F  
RANGE. LOOKING BEYOND THAT, THE 'COLD' FRONT THAT COMES THROUGH  
ON TUESDAY WILL KNOCK THINGS BACK DOWN TO NORMAL, BUT BROAD  
RIDGING IN THE WESTERN HALF OF THE US WILL DRIFT EASTWARD  
THROUGH THE END OF NEXT WEEK AND PROVIDE WHAT'LL LIKELY BE SOME  
MORE CHANCES FOR ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES.  
 
HALBACH  
 

 
   
AVIATION
 
 
ISSUED 324 PM CDT WED JUL 24 2024  
 
THE MAIN FOCUS IS ON THE MVFR TO VFR CEILINGS ACROSS SOUTHERN  
WISCONSIN AND HOW LONG THE MVFR WILL HOLD ON FOR. DRIER AIR  
CONTINUES TO WORK IN FROM THE NORTH AND HAS BEEN HELPING TO  
SCATTER/LIFT BASES OF THE STRATUS DECK WHICH IS NOW MORE OF A CU  
FIELD. THE EXPECTATION IS THAT MVFR CIGS WILL BE OUT OF THE  
REGION BY 23Z TODAY AS THE RIDGE PUSHES IN. OVERNIGHT, THE  
QUESTION WILL BE WITH WHETHER OR NOT ANY FOG DEVELOPS DUE TO THE  
LIGHT WINDS AND RADIATIONAL COOLING THAT WILL OCCUR DUE TO THE  
RIDGE BEING OVERHEAD. CURRENT EXPECTATIONS IS THAT LOW AREAS MAY  
HAVE SOME PATCHY FOG BUT MOST AREAS WILL LIKELY BE TOO DRY FOR  
THE FOG TO FORM.  
 
HALBACH  
 

 
   
MARINE
 
 
ISSUED 324 PM CDT WED JUL 24 2024  
 
LIGHT WINDS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS MUCH OF THE LAKE THROUGH THE  
NEXT FEW DAYS AS A BROAD RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE DRIFTS ACROSS  
THE GREAT LAKES REGION. AS THE RIDGE TRACKS OFF TO THE EAST ON  
SUNDAY, EXPECT THAT WINDS WILL INCREASE A BIT OUT OF THE SOUTH  
BUT NOT TOO HIGH AS THE SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT IS NOT LOOKING  
TO BE THAT TIGHT. SUNDAY INTO TUESDAY APPEARS TO BE THE NEXT  
PERIOD FOR STORMS ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES.  
 
HALBACH  
 

 
   
MKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
 
 
WI...NONE.  
LM...NONE.  

 
 

 
 
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