250  
FXUS63 KMKX 292103  
AFDMKX  
 
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION  
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MILWAUKEE/SULLIVAN WI  
403 PM CDT WED MAR 29 2023  
   
SHORT TERM  
 
(ISSUED 400 PM CDT WED MAR 29 2023)  
 
TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT:  
 
HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER SOUTHERN MN WILL CONTINUE TO  
GRADUALLY WORK ITS WAY EAST-SOUTHEASTWARD THROUGH THE EVENING AND  
MOVE OVERHEAD OVERNIGHT. EXPECT WINDS TO BE LIGHT AND VARIABLE  
UNDER MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES. TONIGHT WILL BE COLD AS TEMPS FALL INTO  
THE MID TEENS TO LOW 20S THANKS TO AMPLE RADIATIVE COOLING AND  
CLEAR CONDITIONS. THE HIGH WILL PUSH EAST LATER THURSDAY MORNING  
AND WINDS WILL TURN EASTERLY AND EVENTUALLY MORE SOUTHERLY. AREA  
WITH THE SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL SEE WARMER TEMPS BEGIN TO MOVE  
NORTHWARD INTO THE REGION WITH TEMPS CLIMBING INTO THE UPPER 40S  
TO EVEN THE LOW 50S ESPECIALLY ACROSS SOUTHWESTERN WI. MEANWHILE  
AREAS EAST AND CLOSER TO THE LAKE ARE LIKELY TO SEE MORE EASTERLY  
WINDS, WHICH BRINGS US BACK TO "COOLER BY THE LAKE" SEASON AND  
MOST AREAS WILL ONLY TOP OFF IN THE LOWER 40S.  
 
MEANWHILE OUR NEXT WEATHER MAKER BEGINS TO TAKE SHAPE ALONG THE  
FRONT RANGE OF THE CO ROCKIES THROUGH THE DAY THURSDAY. AS THE  
SURFACE LOW DEVELOPS, EXPECT THE WING OF LOW-LEVEL WAA AHEAD OF THE  
SYSTEM TO LIFT INTO OUR NECK OF THE WOODS THROUGH THE DAY. WITH THIS  
PAIRED AN INCOMING LLJ, THERE WILL BE INCREASE PRECIP CHANCES  
ASSOCIATED WITH IT LATER THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY MORNING. HOWEVER,  
ONSET TIMING OF THE PRECIP, WHICH WILL LIKELY FALL MOSTLY AS RAIN  
WITH SOME MIX ACROSS CENTRAL WI, STILL REMAINS IN QUESTION AS IT  
WILL BE BATTLING DRY AIR AHEAD OF IT.  
 
WAGNER  
 
 
   
LONG TERM  
 
(ISSUED 400 PM CDT WED MAR 29 2023)  
 
FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY:  
 
FRIDAY IS LOOKING TO MAIN SHOW AS THE SURFACE LOW DEEPENS AS IT  
PUSHES ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS BEFORE LIFTING INTO THE WESTERN  
GREAT LAKES REGION. AS THE LOW WORKS IS WAY INTO THE REGION, EXPECT  
PRECIP CHANCES TO LINGER THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING WITH A BRIEF WINDOW  
FOR DRIER CONDITIONS BEFORE RAMPING BACK UP THROUGH THE AFTERNOON  
AND EVENING. ADDITIONALLY EXPECT TEMPS TO INCREASE AS WELL. LOOKING  
AT HIGH TEMPS TO CREEP INTO THE 50S AND EVEN CRACK THE MID 60S.  
 
WITH THE FRIDAY SYSTEM, THERE CONTINUES TO BE A POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE  
WEATHER. SYNOPTICALLY, THE SET UP IS LOOKING PRETTY IMPRESSIVE AS A  
NEGATIVELY TILTED TROUGH SWINGS ACROSS THE UPPER MIDWEST WITH THE  
LEFT EXIT REGION OF THE UPPER-LEVEL JET SETTING UP OVER SOUTHERN WI.  
THE UPPER-LEVEL JET WILL ALIGN WITH A BROAD AREA OF DCVA AS THE MID-  
LEVEL LOW WORKS ITS WAY ACROSS IA TO SOUTHERN WI/NORTHERN IL ALONG  
WITH LOW-LEVEL WAA AND THE NOSE OF THE LLJ CREEPING INTO  
SOUTHWESTERN WI DURING THE SAME TIME. SO DYNAMICALLY SPEAKING, THE  
SET UP CONTINUES TO LOOK FAVORABLE FOR ACTIVE WEATHER. LOOKING AT  
THE SURFACE LOW IS PROGGED TO TRACK ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS IN  
IA AND ACROSS SOUTHERN WI THROUGH FRIDAY EVENING AS WELL. IF THE  
WARM FRONT LIFTS AS FAR NORTH AS THE CURRENT MODELS SUGGEST, THEN  
AS THE LOW PUSHES EAST THE COLD FRONT WILL OCCLUDE AND ALIGN WITH  
DEEP LAYER SHEAR AROUND 40-60 KNOTS, STEEP MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATE  
APPROACHING 8 C/KM, AND MUCAPE RANGING BETWEEN 500 TO AROUND 1000  
J/KG. IF ALL THESE INGREDIENTS CONTINUE TO ALIGN FRIDAY, THEN  
THERE IS A BETTER POTENTIAL TO SEE SEVERE WEATHER FRIDAY  
AFTERNOON/EVENING.  
 
HOWEVER, THIS IS SPRING TIME IN THE MIDWEST AND THE SETUP FOR SEVERE  
IS CONDITIONAL. STILL HAS SOME CONCERN WITH A FEW FACTORS THAT MAY  
LIMIT SOUTHERN WI POTENTIAL. THE FIRST AND BIGGEST CONCERN IS A TALE  
AS OLD AS TIME; THE BATTLE BETWEEN LAKE MICHIGAN COLD AIR AND THE  
WARM FRONT. HISTORICALLY DURING THE EARLY SPRING SEASON THE LAKE HA  
S A GREAT DEAL OF IMPACT ON THE WARM FRONT UP IN OUR AREA AND HOW  
FAR NORTH IT PROGRESSES. GLOBAL MODELS TEND TO NOT HANDLE THIS  
ALL THAT WELL AND CAN SEE HINTS OF THE WARM FRONT PROGRESSION  
BEING LIMITED IN THE 12Z CMC MODEL. SO THERE IS STILL SOME  
UNCERTAINTY FROM THAT ASPECT WHICH WOULD LIMIT SEVERE MORE TO  
ELEVATED CONVECTION THAN SURFACE BASED. ON TOP THE WARM FRONT  
POSITION, THERE IS SOME MODELS HINTING AT LIMITED INSTABILITY AS  
WELL. THE 06Z GEFS AND EPS ONLY HAVE MEDIUM TO HIGH PROBABILITIES  
OF CAPE EXCEEDING 500 J/KG IN THE SOUTHWESTERN PART OF OUR CWA.  
 
OVERALL, STILL SOME QUESTIONS FOR THE SEVERE POTENTIAL TO BE  
ANSWERED FOR FRIDAY. REGARDLESS OF THE LIMITING FACTORS PAIRED WITH  
THE FAVORABLE SYNOPTIC SETUP, THE AREAS THAT HAVE THE GREATEST  
CHANCES CONTINUE TO BE OUR SOUTHWESTERN PORTIONS OF THE CWA.  
 
SEVERE CHANCES WILL DIMINISH THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT AS THE LOW PUSHES  
EAST. HOWEVER COLD AIR AND PRECIP CHANCES LINGER INTO SATURDAY ON  
THE BACKSIDE OF THE LOW. COULD SEE SOME CONVECTIVE SNOW SHOWERS WITH  
THIS ACTIVITY IN ADDITION TO STRONG NORTHWESTERLY WINDS THROUGH THE  
DAY. SUNDAY IS LOOKING A BIT QUIETER WITH HIGH PRESSURE BRIEFLY  
BUILDING IN BEFORE ANOTHER ACTIVE PATTERN TAKES SHAPE HEADING INTO  
EARLY NEXT WEEK.  
 
WAGNER  
 
 
   
AVIATION  
 
(ISSUED 400 PM CDT WED MAR 29 2023)  
 
VFR CONDITIONS WITH LIGHTER WINDS WILL PREVAIL AS HIGH PRESSURE  
WORKS ITS WAY ACROSS WI THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT. THEN AS THE HIGH  
PUSHES EAST THURSDAY, WINDS WILL TURN EASTERLY THEN EVENTUALLY MORE  
SOUTHERLY LATER THURSDAY NIGHT. CLEARER CONDITIONS WILL GRADUALLY  
GIVE WAY TO MID TO HIGH CLOUDS AS RAIN CHANCE GRADUALLY PICK UP  
THROUGH THURSDAY EVENING.  
 
WAGNER  
 
 
   
MARINE  
 
(ISSUED 400 PM CDT WED MAR 29 2023)  
 
GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS LINGER INTO THE EARLY EVENING, BUT WILL  
WEAKEN AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS ACROSS WI THIS EVENING AND MOVE  
OVER THE LAKE OVERNIGHT. THIS WILL RESULT IN LIGHTER WESTERLY TO  
VARIABLE WINDS HEADING INTO THURSDAY. THEN AS A LOW DEVELOPS  
ALONG THE FRONT RANGE OF THE CO ROCKIES, EXPECT SOUTHERLY WINDS TO  
DEVELOP ACROSS LAKE MICHIGAN THROUGH THE DAY AND GRADUALLY PICK  
UP INTO FRIDAY. AS THE LOW LIFTS NORTHEASTWARD IT LOOKS TO DEEPEN  
AS IT PUSH INTO THE REGION AND ACROSS THE CENTER PART OF THE LAKE  
OVERNIGHT FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY. EXPECT SOUTHERLY WINDS TO  
PERSISTS AS THE LOW WORKS ITS WAY THROUGH AND WILL BRING A  
POTENTIAL FOR THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP LATER FRIDAY, ESPECIALLY  
ACROSS THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE LAKE. MAY ALSO SEE SOME POCKETS OF  
NEAR GALE FORCES GUSTS DURING THIS TIME. OTHERWISE, THE LOW WILL  
PUSH EAST BY SATURDAY MORNING AND STRONG NORTH- NORTHWESTERLY  
WINDS ARE PROGGED TO DEVELOP ON THE BACKSIDE. THERE WILL BE A  
PRETTY HIGH POTENTIAL TO SEE GALES FOR SATURDAY DURING THIS TIME  
AND CANNOT RULE OUT A POTENTIAL TO EVEN SEE STORM FORCE GUSTS.  
HOWEVER, THESE CONDITIONS WILL BE DEPENDENT ON THE LOW TRACK AND  
STRENGTH AND MAY CHANGE OVER THE NEXT DAY OR TWO. BEHIND THIS  
SYSTEM, HIGH PRESSURE BRIEFLY BUILDS ACROSS THE REGION FOR THE  
LATER HALF OF THE WEEKEND AND LOOKS TO BRING LIGHTER WINDS ACROSS  
LAKE MICHIGAN.  
 
WAGNER  
 
 
   
MKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES  
 
WI...NONE.  
LM...NONE.  
 
 
 
 
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