433
FXUS63 KMKX 281054
AFDMKX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MILWAUKEE/SULLIVAN WI
454 AM CST SUN DEC 28 2025
KEY MESSAGES
- A DENSE FOG ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT THROUGH MID-MORNING
SOUTHWEST OF MADISON. A BRIEF PERIOD OF DENSE FOG IS POSSIBLE
FARTHER NORTH AND EAST, BUT CONFIDENCE REMAINS LOW.
- WIDESPREAD RAIN WILL SPREAD ACROSS SOUTHERN WISCONSIN THIS
MORNING, WITH ISOLATED BOLTS OF LIGHTNING POSSIBLE ACROSS FAR
SOUTHERN WISCONSIN.
- TEMPERATURES WILL RAPIDLY FALL WELL BELOW FREEZING THIS
EVENING, WITH ANY UNTREATED SURFACES BECOMING SLICK. SNOW WILL
DEVELOP ACROSS ALL OF SOUTHERN WISCONSIN, WITH WIDESPREAD
ACCUMULATIONS OVER AN INCH EXPECTED. A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY
IS IN EFFECT FROM THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY MORNING FOR 2
TO 5 INCHES OF SNOWFALL AND GUSTY WINDS FROM LAFAYETTE, GREEN,
JEFFERSON, WAUKESHA, AND OZAUKEE COUNTIES NORTH AND WESTWARD.
- NORTHWEST WIND GUSTS TO 50 MPH ARE EXPECTED TONIGHT, WITH A
FEW GUSTS UP TO 55 MPH POSSIBLE ALONG THE LAKE MICHIGAN
SHORELINE LATE TONIGHT INTO EARLY MONDAY MORNING. A WIND
ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY EVENING.
- A STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT TONIGHT THROUGH EARLY TUESDAY
MORNING IN LAKE MICHIGAN. MODERATE FREEZING SPRAY IS ALSO
EXPECTED.
- POLAR AIR RETURNS SUNDAY NIGHT AND CONTINUES THROUGH THE END
OF NEXT WEEK, WITH TEMPERATURES REMAINING AT OR BELOW NORMAL.
SHORT TERM
ISSUED 454 AM CST SUN DEC 28 2025
TODAY THROUGH MONDAY:
FOG AND LIGHT, ON AND OFF DRIZZLE CONTINUES ACROSS SOUTHERN
WISCONSIN THIS MORNING AS WEAK WAA SLOWLY ENDS. LOW PRESSURE IN
EASTERN KANSAS THIS MORNING IS CONTINUING TO DEEPEN AS IT PIVOTS
NORTHEASTWARD. A DEFORMATION BAND OF RAIN HAS DEVELOPED ACROSS
NORTHERN ILLINOIS AND IS EXPECTED TO SLOWLY WORK NORTHWARD
LATE THIS MORNING THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON, BRINGING VISIBILITIES
THAT MANAGE TO IMPROVE THIS MORNING BACK DOWN INTO THE 1/2 MILE
TO EVEN 1/4 MILE RANGE.
RAIN WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON HOURS, POTENTIALLY
TAPERING OFF BRIEFLY AS LOW PRESSURE PASSES DIRECTLY OVERHEAD
DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON TO EARLY EVENING HOURS. AS LOW
PRESSURE PASSES TO THE EAST, EXPECT NORTHWESTERLY WINDS TO
RAPIDLY SPREAD ACROSS SOUTHERN WISCONSIN. THIS WILL ALSO BRING A
RAPID DROP IN TEMPERATURE FROM THE 40S TO THE 20S WITHIN A FEW
HOURS.
WRAP-AROUND PRECIPITATION/TROWAL SNOWFALL THEN DEVELOPS ACROSS
WESTERN WISCONSIN WITH A REINFORCING COLD FRONT OVERNIGHT,
PIVOTING THROUGH SOUTHERN WISCONSIN AND BRINGING STEADY LIGHT TO
MODERATE SNOWFALL (RATES TO 0.5"/HR) ALONG WITH VERY STRONG
GUSTS OF 40 TO 50 MPH. A 925 MB JET OF 50 TO 60 KT WINDS
DEVELOPS OVER FAR SOUTHEASTERN WISCONSIN AND LAKE MICHIGAN LATE
TONIGHT INTO EARLY MONDAY MORNING, WHICH MAY BRING A FEW GUSTS
TO 55 MPH DOWN TO THE SURFACE NEAR THE LAKE MICHIGAN SHORELINE.
A WIND ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT FROM 6 PM CST TONIGHT THROUGH 6 PM
CST MONDAY ACROSS ALL OF SOUTHERN WISCONSIN. WINDS MAY BEGIN TO
TAPER OFF EARLIER MONDAY AFTERNOON, BUT CURRENTLY CANNOT RULE
OUT GUSTS TO 45 MPH THROUGH THE AFTERNOON HOURS DEPENDING ON HOW
QUICKLY THE PARENT LOW EXITS TO THE EAST. ALONG WITH THE WINDS,
MODERATE SNOWFALL WILL PRODUCE WIDESPREAD SNOWFALL OF AT LEAST
1-2 INCHES. ALONG AND NORTH OF A LINE FROM DARLINGTON TO PORT
WASHINGTON, SNOWFALL OF 3 TO 5 INCHES IS EXPECTED. ALTHOUGH HIGH
WINDS WILL LIKELY CUT DOWN ON SNOW/LIQUID RATIOS, PLENTY OF
WRAP-AROUND MOISTURE MAY LEAD TO LOCALLY HIGHER TOTALS NEAR 6
INCHES IN CENTRAL WISCONSIN (30-40% CHANCE). SNOW WILL TAPER OFF
FROM WEST TO EAST THROUGH MID-MORNING MONDAY AS LOW PRESSURE
PIVOTS NORTHEASTWARD, BUT AREAS THAT SEE GREATER THAN 2 INCHES
OF SNOW WILL CONTINUE TO SEE BLOWING AND DRIFTING SNOW THROUGH
AT LEAST MIDDAY AS HIGH WINDS CONTINUE. GUSTS DIMINISH TO 35 MPH
INTO MONDAY EVENING.
MH
LONG TERM
ISSUED 454 AM CST SUN DEC 28 2025
MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY:
NORTHWESTERLY FLOW SETS UP ACROSS THE UPPER MIDWEST BEGINNING
MONDAY NIGHT WITH PERIODIC CHANCES OF LIGHT SNOW THROUGH MIDWEEK.
OVERALL TREND KEEP TEMPS ON THE COLDER SIDE THROUGH THE END OF THE
WEEK. LOOKING AT HIGH TEMPS IN THE 20S TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY AS
HIGH PRESSURE SLIDES SOUTH OF THE AREA. WILL SEE THE FIRST OF THE
EMBEDDED SHORTWAVE TROUGHS WORK THEIR WAY THROUGH THE
NORTHWESTERLY FLOW TUESDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING BRINGING A QUICK
CHANCE (20-35%) FOR SNOW ACROSS NORTHEASTERN PORTION OF THE CWA.
ANOTHER SHORTWAVE TROUGH AND ACCOMPANYING COLD FRONT IS PROGGED TO
SWING DOWN THROUGH WI WEDNESDAY BRINGING ANOTHER LOW END CHANCE
(20-40%) OF SNOW ACROSS SOUTHERN WI. BEHIND THIS MIDWEEK COLD
FRONT EXPECT COLDER AIRMASS TO SETTLE INTO THE AREA BRINGING
COLDER TEMPS AND WIND CHILLS WITH HIGHS IN THE TEENS TO LOWER 20S
AND LOWS IN THE SINGLE DIGITS TO LOW TEENS THROUGH THE END OF THE
WEEK. CONDITIONS LOOK DRY THROUGH THIS TIMEFRAME AS WELL.
TEMPS ARE THEN EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY TREND WARMER CLOSER TO
NORMAL THROUGH THE WEEKEND AS THE UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE DEVELOPING
OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS GRADUALLY SLIDES EASTWARD. HOWEVER
ANOTHER BOUT OF QUICK MOVING SHORTWAVE TROUGH TRAVERSING ACROSS
THE GREAT LAKES MAY BRING ADDITIONAL PRECIP CHANCES AND RETURN OF
COLDER TEMPS TOWARD THE START OF NEXT WEEK.
WAGNER
AVIATION
ISSUED 454 AM CST SUN DEC 28 2025
FOG AND CEILINGS BETWEEN 200 AND 500 FT WILL CONTINUE ACROSS
SOUTHERN WISCONSIN THROUGH THIS MORNING, WITH STEADY RAINFALL
DEVELOPING LATE THIS MORNING AND CONTINUING THROUGH THIS
AFTERNOON, THUS PREVENTING CONDITIONS FROM IMPROVING. A BRIEF
PERIOD OF 1/4 SM FOG MAY DEVELOP THIS MORNING, BUT CONFIDENCE
IN THIS OCCURRING HAS CONTINUED TO DIMINISH THROUGH THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS. LIGHT SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS AND SLOWLY SHIFTING
TO BECOME NORTHEASTERLY THIS MORNING, WITH A RAPID SHIFT TO
NORTHWESTERLY LATE THIS AFTERNOON AS LOW PRESSURE PROGRESSES
NORTHEASTWARD INTO MICHIGAN. A FEW HOURS OF DRY CONDITIONS ARE
POSSIBLE LATE THIS AFTERNOON BEFORE A STRONG COLD FRONT BRINGS
WIDESPREAD LIGHT TO MODERATE SNOW (1-3 INCHES ACROSS FAR
SOUTHERN TO SOUTHEASTERN WISCONSIN, 2-5 INCHES FROM MSN TO SBM
NORTH AND WESTWARD) AND VERY STRONG NORTHWEST WINDS. GUSTS UP
TO 40 KT ARE POSSIBLE, ALTHOUGH THE MAJORITY OF GUSTS WILL
REMAIN BETWEEN 35 AND 40 KT. WINDS WILL CONTINUE THROUGHOUT
TONIGHT AND THROUGHOUT MONDAY, SLOWLY DIMINISHING MONDAY
AFTERNOON. SNOW WILL TAPER OFF MONDAY MORNING, ALTHOUGH AREAS
THAT SEE MORE THAN 2 INCHES OF SNOWFALL MAY SEE CONTINUED
BLOWING AND DRIFTING THROUGH MONDAY AFTERNOON.
MH
MARINE
ISSUED 454 AM CST SUN DEC 28 2025
FOG WITH VISIBILITIES BETWEEN 1/2 AND 1 MILE WILL CONTINUE THROUGH
THE MORNING HOURS ACROSS THE SOUTHERN THIRD OF LAKE MICHIGAN,
WHILE PATCHY FREEZING DRIZZLE CONTINUES ACROSS THE NORTHERN HALF. A
MARINE DENSE FOG ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT THROUGH 10 AM CST FOR THE
SOUTHERN THIRD, INCLUDING NEARSHORE REGIONS.
LOW PRESSURE OVER EASTERN KANSAS THIS MORNING WILL LIFT
NORTHEASTWARD INTO SOUTHERN LAKE MICHIGAN BY THIS EVENING.
SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS WILL BACK TO EASTERLY THIS MORNING, THEN
WILL RAPIDLY SHIFT TO NORTHWESTERLY AS THE LOW CROSSES THE LAKE
TONIGHT. ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE SOUTHERN
THIRD OF THE LAKE THIS AFTERNOON.
LOW PRESSURE WILL DEEPEN QUICKLY AS IT LIFTS INTO SOUTHEASTERN
ONTARIO INTO MONDAY MORNING. NORTHWESTERLY STORM FORCE GUSTS OF
50 TO 55 KT ARE THEREFORE EXPECTED SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY
NIGHT ACROSS THE OPEN WATERS, WITH THE STRONGEST GUSTS DURING
THE EARLY MORNING HOURS MONDAY THROUGH MONDAY AFTERNOON. IN
NEARSHORE REGIONS OF SOUTHERN WISCONSIN, GALES TO 45 KT ARE
EXPECTED. LOW PRESSURE WILL SLOWLY EXIT INTO THE CANADIAN
MARITIMES INTO TUESDAY MORNING, LEADING TO SLOWLY DIMINISHING
WINDS THROUGH THE DAY TUESDAY. A STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR
ALL OF THE OPEN WATERS OF LAKE MICHIGAN FROM 7 PM CST THIS
EVENING TO 6 AM CST TUESDAY, WITH A GALE WARNING IN EFFECT FROM
THIS EVENING THROUGH LATE MONDAY NIGHT IN SOUTHERN WISCONSIN
NEARSHORE ZONES. MODERATE FREEZING SPRAY IS ALSO EXPECTED
DURING THE TIMEFRAME OF STORM FORCE WINDS. BREEZY NORTHWEST
WINDS WILL THEN LINGER THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK.
MH
MKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
WI...DENSE FOG ADVISORY...WIZ062-WIZ067-WIZ068 UNTIL NOON SUNDAY.
WIND ADVISORY...WIZ046-WIZ047-WIZ051-WIZ052-WIZ056-WIZ057-
WIZ058-WIZ059-WIZ060-WIZ062-WIZ063-WIZ064-WIZ065-WIZ066-
WIZ067-WIZ068-WIZ069-WIZ070-WIZ071-WIZ072...6 PM SUNDAY
TO 6 PM MONDAY.
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY...WIZ046-WIZ047-WIZ051-WIZ052-WIZ056-
WIZ057-WIZ058-WIZ059-WIZ060-WIZ062-WIZ063-WIZ064-WIZ065-
WIZ067-WIZ068...6 PM SUNDAY TO NOON MONDAY.
LM...DENSE FOG ADVISORY...LMZ080-LMZ673-LMZ675-LMZ777-LMZ779-LMZ874-
LMZ876-LMZ878 UNTIL 10 AM SUNDAY.
STORM WARNING...LMZ080-LMZ261-LMZ362-LMZ364-LMZ366-LMZ563-
LMZ565-LMZ567-LMZ669-LMZ671-LMZ673-LMZ675-LMZ777-LMZ779-
LMZ868-LMZ870-LMZ872-LMZ874-LMZ876-LMZ878...7 PM SUNDAY
TO 6 AM TUESDAY.
GALE WARNING...LMZ643-LMZ644...9 PM SUNDAY TO MIDNIGHT TUESDAY.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY...LMZ643-LMZ644-LMZ645-LMZ646 UNTIL 9 AM
SUNDAY.
DENSE FOG ADVISORY...LMZ645-LMZ646...9 AM SUNDAY TO 10 AM
SUNDAY.
GALE WARNING...LMZ645-LMZ646...6 PM SUNDAY TO MIDNIGHT TUESDAY.
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