511
FXUS63 KMKX 150857
AFDMKX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MILWAUKEE/SULLIVAN WI
357 AM CDT THU MAY 15 2025
KEY MESSAGES
- A DENSE FOG ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT FOR AREAS NEAR LAKE MICHIGAN
UNTIL MID-MORNING.
- A DENSE FOG ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT FOR ALL OPEN WATERS OF LAKE
MICHIGAN AND ALL NEARSHORE WATERS FROM SHEBOYGAN TO WINTHROP
HARBOR THROUGH EARLY THIS EVENING.
- THERE IS A LEVEL 3 OUT OF 5 THREAT FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS
THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING, WITH A THREAT FOR VERY LARGE
HAIL, TORNADOES, AND STRONG WIND GUSTS. INITIAL STORM
DEVELOPMENT AROUND 2 TO 4 PM, PEAK INTENSITY BETWEEN 4 AND 8
PM, THEN STORMS PUSH EAST OF THE REGION AFTER 8 PM CDT.
- ADDITIONAL ISOLATED TO SCATTERED (30 TO 50 PERCENT CHANCES)
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND
EARLY EVENING. A COUPLE OF THESE STORMS MAY REACH SEVERE
LEVELS.
- GUSTY SOUTHWEST WINDS ARE EXPECTED FRIDAY IN THE LATE MORNING
AND AFTERNOON HOURS. GUSTS OF 35 TO 45 MPH ARE EXPECTED.
SHORT TERM
ISSUED 357 AM CDT THU MAY 15 2025
TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY:
FOG AND LOW CLOUDS IN THE EAST WILL PERSIST EARLY THIS MORNING.
THE WESTWARD ADVANCEMENT SEEMS TO HAVE STALLED OVER THE LAST
COUPLE HOURS, SO MAINLY CLEAR SKIES WILL LIKELY PERSIST THIS
MORNING WEST OF A LINE FROM FOND DU LAC TO JANESVILLE. THE FOG
AND LOW CLOUDS IN THE EAST SHOULD CLEAR UP BY MID-MORNING,
SIMILAR TO YESTERDAY.
LATEST FORECAST MODELS REMAIN ON TRACK FOR THE SEVERE
THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL TODAY. PLENTY OF INSTABILITY IS
EXPECTED, WITH AT LEAST 2000 J/KG OF MIXED LAYER CAPE BY THE
AFTERNOON HOURS. MID LEVEL LAPSE RAGES OF 7-8 C/KM AND 0-6 KM
SHEAR OF 40-50 KNOTS WILL ALSO AID IN THE SEVERE STORM POTENTIAL
AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT. LATEST CAMS ARE SHOWING STORM
DEVELOPMENT ALONG THE TEMPERATURE/MOISTURE BOUNDARY IN THE
WESTERN TO CENTRAL FORECAST AREA BETWEEN 3 AND 5 PM. THE LINE
THEN QUICKLY MOVES THROUGH PER THE CAMS, EXITING THE EAST BY 8
PM. ALL SEVERE HAZARDS STILL LOOK POSSIBLE, WITH A CHANCE FOR
LARGE TO VERY LARGE HAIL, DAMAGING WINDS, AND TORNADOES. OVERALL
CONFIDENCE IN THE DEVELOPMENT OF STORMS IS HIGHER THAN 24 HOURS
AGO, WITH INCREASING CONFIDENCE FOR STORMS EVEN ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA.
STILL LOOKS LIKE WE'LL SEE A TEMP AND MOISTURE SURGE AHEAD OF
THE PRIMARY COLD FRONT ON FRIDAY, WITH MUCH OF THE FORECAST AREA
EXPECTED TO BE IN AN UNSTABLE ENVIRONMENT DURING THE AFTERNOON.
WITH PLENTY OF SHEAR STILL IN PLACE AHEAD OF THE LOW AND FRONT,
IT LOOKS LIKE THERE COULD BE A CHANCE FOR ADDITIONAL
THUNDERSTORMS AS THE FRONT MOVES THROUGH. DEWPOINTS WON'T BE AS
HIGH AS ON THURSDAY, SO MODEL SOUNDINGS ARE SHOWING AN INVERTED
V SIGNATURE, WHICH COULD RESULT IN A SEVERE WIND THREAT WITH
SOME OF THE STORMS. THE INSTABILITY AND SOLID MID-LEVEL LAPSE
RATES ALSO POINT TO A HAIL THREAT. THE CHANCE FOR STORMS MAY
LINGER INTO THE EARLY EVENING, BUT THEN PRECIP CHANCES WILL DROP
OFF QUICKLY BEHIND THE COLD FRONT.
DDV
LONG TERM
ISSUED 357 AM CDT THU MAY 15 2025
FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY:
THE MAIN LOW RESPONSIBLE FOR THE STORM THREAT THU/FRI WILL
FINALLY PASS BY TO THE NORTH FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY, WITH A
LINGERING RAIN SHOWER CHANCE IN THE NORTH OVERNIGHT FRI INTO
SAT. CLOUDS WILL HANG AROUND THROUGH THE DAY SAT AS WELL,
PARTICULARY IN THE NORTH. HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN BRING A RETURN
OF QUIETER WEATHER ON SUNDAY. TEMPERATURES OVER THE WEEKEND
WILL BE MUCH COOLER, WITH HIGHS ONLY TOPPING OUT IN THE MID TO
UPPER 60S MOST PLACES, LIKELY NOT GETTING OUT OF THE 50S NEAR
THE LAKE ON SUNDAY.
FORECAST MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW A SLOW MOVING LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM BRINGING A RETURN OF RAIN CHANCES TO SOUTHERN WISCONSIN
LATER TUESDAY INTO MID-WEEK. THERE CONTINUE TO BE SIGNIFICANT
DIFFERENCES IN STRENGTH AND PLACEMENT OF THE LOW AMONG 00Z
DETERMINISTIC MODELS THOUGH, VARYING BASED ON HOW MUCH HIGH
PRESSURE CENTERED TO THE EAST AND NORTHEAST BLOCKS THE PROGRESS
OF THE LOW. IN GENERAL THOUGH, THIS PERIOD LOOKS LIKE A DECENT
CHANCE FOR COOLER AND WETTER CONDITIONS.
DDV
AVIATION
ISSUED 357 AM CDT THU MAY 15 2025
FOG AND LOW CLOUDS IN THE EAST WILL PERSIST EARLY THIS MORNING.
THE WESTWARD ADVANCEMENT SEEMS TO HAVE STALLED OVER THE LAST
COUPLE HOURS, SO MAINLY CLEAR SKIES WILL LIKELY PERSIST THIS
MORNING WEST OF A LINE FROM FOND DU LAC TO JANESVILLE. THE FOG
AND LOW CLOUDS IN THE EAST SHOULD CLEAR UP BETWEEN 13Z AND 16Z,
SIMILAR TO YESTERDAY.
BREEZY SOUTHEAST TO SOUTH WINDS WILL DEVELOP TODAY AHEAD OF AN
APPROACHING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM AND COLD FRONT. THUNDERSTORMS
ARE LIKELY THIS AFTERNOON INTO EARLY EVENING AS THE FRONT MOVES
THROUGH, WITH A CHANCE SOME OF THE STORMS MAY BE SEVERE. LARGE
HAIL, DAMAGING WINDS, AND TORNADOES WILL ALL BE POSSIBLE WITH
ANY SEVERE STORMS THAT DEVELOP. LATEST MODELS SHOW THE MAIN
OPPORTUNITY FOR STORMS WILL BE BETWEEN 20Z AND 02Z.
QUIET WEATHER IS EXPECTED TONIGHT, WITH SOUTHWEST WINDS THEN
PICKING UP ON FRIDAY. GUSTS TO 35 KNOTS WILL BE POSSIBLE IN THE
AFTERNOON. THERE WILL ALSO BE ANOTHER CHANCE FOR STORMS FRIDAY
AFTERNOON. A FEW OF THESE STORMS COULD BE SEVERE AS WELL, WITH
HAIL AND STRONG WINDS THE MAIN CONCERNS.
DDV
MARINE
ISSUED 357 AM CDT THU MAY 15 2025
DENSE FOG IS EXPECTED AT TIMES THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON, AS A
MOIST AIRMASS LINGERS OVER THE CHILLY WATERS OF LAKE MICHIGAN.
THE DENSE FOG ADVISORY COVERS ALL OPEN WATERS OF THE LAKE UNTIL
7 PM CDT.
SOUTH TO SOUTHEAST WINDS WILL INCREASE TODAY, AS LOW PRESSURE
LIFTS THROUGH THE NORTHERN PLAINS WHILE DEEPENING TO 28.9 INCHES.
WHILE BREEZY AT TIMES, WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN WELL BELOW
GALE FORCE, DUE TO WARMER AIR OVER THE COLD LAKE. WINDS WILL
LIKELY HIT SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY LEVELS AT TIMES ACROSS THE
NEARSHORE WATERS THOUGH. THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE LIKELY ALONG A
COLD FRONT THIS EVENING. A FEW STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS WITH
LARGE HAIL WILL BE POSSIBLE. WINDS WILL TURN SOUTHWEST BEHIND
THE FRONT.
LOW PRESSURE WILL THEN MOVE THROUGH NORTHERN MINNESOTA AND
NORTHWEST WISCONSIN FRIDAY, WHILE WEAKENING A BIT TO AROUND 29.2
INCHES. WINDS WILL REMAIN SOUTHERLY OVER THE OPEN WATERS. COULD
SEE GUSTS REACH GALE FORCE OVER THE WESTERN SHORELINE AREAS,
AHEAD OF THE MAIN COLD FRONT FRIDAY AFTERNOON. AN ADDITIONAL
ROUND OF THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH THIS SECONDARY
FRONT, WITH A FEW STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS POSSIBLE AGAIN,
ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE SOUTH HALF OF THE LAKE.
BREEZY WESTERLY WINDS ARE LIKELY SATURDAY BEHIND THE COLD FRONT,
AS LOW PRESSURE PASSES BY TO THE NORTH. WINDS VEER NORTH SATURDAY
NIGHT INTO SUNDAY, AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN NORTH OF THE
REGION.
DDV
MKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
WI...DENSE FOG ADVISORY...WIZ052-WIZ059-WIZ060-WIZ065-WIZ066-WIZ071-
WIZ072 UNTIL 10 AM THURSDAY.
LM...DENSE FOG ADVISORY...LMZ080-LMZ261-LMZ362-LMZ364-LMZ366-LMZ563-
LMZ565-LMZ567-LMZ669-LMZ671-LMZ673-LMZ675-LMZ777-LMZ779-
LMZ868-LMZ870-LMZ872-LMZ874-LMZ876-LMZ878 UNTIL 7 PM
THURSDAY.
GALE WATCH...LMZ643-LMZ644-LMZ645-LMZ646...NOON FRIDAY TO 10
PM FRIDAY.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY...LMZ643-LMZ644-LMZ645-LMZ646...1 PM
THURSDAY TO 11 PM THURSDAY.
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