727
FXUS63 KMKX 301945
AFDMKX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MILWAUKEE/SULLIVAN WI
245 PM CDT MON JUN 30 2025
KEY MESSAGES
- A FEW SHOWERS THIS AFTERNOON OVER FAR SOUTHEASTERN WISCONSIN.
- COOLER AND LESS HUMID FOR TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY.
- WARMER AND MORE ACTIVE THURSDAY INTO THE WEEKEND.
SHORT TERM
ISSUED 245 PM CDT MON JUN 30 2025
REST OF THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT:
AN INITIAL COLD FRONT WILL CONTINUE EASTWARD THIS AFTERNOON. A
FEW SHOWERS AND PERHAPS A VERY BRIEF THUNDERSTORM WILL REMAIN
POSSIBLE AHEAD OF FRONT (I.E., ONLY OVER FAR SOUTHEASTERN
WISCONSIN) UNTIL IT PUSHES EAST OF THE AREA.
A STRONGER COLD FRONT IS LOCATED WELL NORTHWEST OF THE AREA,
NEAR THE TWIN CITIES (AS OF 2 PM). THIS FRONT WILL ADVANCE
EASTWARD TONIGHT, ALONG WITH ITS ASSOCIATED MID LEVEL
SHORTWAVE. AHEAD OF THE FRONT, SOME MID LEVEL CLOUD COVER
ASSOCIATED WITH THE RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION OF AN UPPER JET WILL
MOVE INTO THE AREA. A FEW SHOWERS OR STORMS MAY MAKE IT INTO THE
FAR NORTHWESTERN CWA THIS EVENING, BEFORE DISSIPATING. THE
FRONT WILL CLEAR THE AREA BY DAYBREAK ON TUESDAY. LOWS TONIGHT
WILL FALL INTO THE LOW TO MID 60S.
TUESDAY LOOKS TO BE A VERY NICE DAY ACROSS THE REGION, WITH
HIGHS IN THE LOW TO MID 80S AND DEWPOINTS IN THE LOW 60S.
BOXELL
LONG TERM
ISSUED 245 PM CDT MON JUN 30 2025
WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY:
A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL PUSH SOUTHWARD FROM NORTHERN TO CENTRAL
WISCONSIN ON WEDNESDAY BEFORE STALLING. A FEW SHOWERS OR
THUNDERSTORMS MAY MAKE IT AS FAR SOUTH AS THE I-94 CORRIDOR, BUT
FOR NOW MOST LOCATIONS LOOK TO REMAIN DRY. TEMPERATURES WILL BE
A TOUCH WARMER, WITH HIGHS IN THE MID 80S.
RAIN CHANCES WILL GRADUALLY INCREASE WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND
THURSDAY, AS CONVECTION DEVELOPS WITHIN A CORRIDOR OF WARM AND
MOIST ADVECTION. SOME OVERNIGHT DEVELOPMENT IS POSSIBLE
WEDNESDAY NIGHT IN ASSOCIATION WITH A LOW LEVEL JET, FOLLOWED BY
DIURNAL STORMS DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING ON THURSDAY.
WITH WEAK SHEAR AND NO STRONG FORCING MECHANISMS, DEVELOPMENT
WILL LARGELY BE TIED TO REMNANT BOUNDARY/OUTFLOW INTERACTIONS.
THE CONTINUED SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL SET THE STAGE FOR A VERY WARM
AND HUMID 4TH OF JULY, WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 80S AND LOW 90S.
RAIN CHANCES WILL BE HIGHEST LATER IN THE DAY, BOTH DUE TO PEAK
HEATING AND THE SLOW APPROACH OF A COLD FRONT FROM THE WEST.
THAT FRONT IS THEN EXPECTED TO MAKE SLOW PROGRESS INTO THE AREA
ON SATURDAY, WITH A GOOD CHANCE (50-60%) FOR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH MUCH OF THE DAY. HEAVY RAIN WILL BE A RISK
GIVEN THE SLOW FORWARD SPEED OF THE FRONT, STORM MOTIONS
PARALLEL TO THE BOUNDARY, AND PWATS IN EXCESS OF 2".
UNCERTAINTY INCREASES BEYOND SATURDAY, WITH QUESTIONS ABOUT HOW
FAR SOUTH THE FRONT WILL PROGRESS BEFORE STALLING. MUCH OF THE
ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE SUGGESTS IT WILL CLEAR THE FORECAST AREA, WITH
LOWER PRECIPITATION POTENTIAL FOR SUNDAY AND MONDAY. HOWEVER,
SOME MEMBERS DO KEEP THE FRONT OVER THE REGION, WITH CONTINUED
RAIN CHANCES. THESE TRENDS SHOULD HOPEFULLY BECOME MORE CLEAR
OVER THE COMING DAYS.
BOXELL
AVIATION
ISSUED 245 PM CDT MON JUN 30 2025
WEST TO NORTHWEST WINDS ARE EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS.
SOME MID LEVEL CLOUDS WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA THIS EVENING,
BUT ANY ADDITIONAL SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY WILL REMAIN
NORTHWEST OF THE TERMINALS. VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH
THE DAY ON TUESDAY.
BOXELL
MARINE
ISSUED 245 PM CDT MON JUN 30 2025
WINDS WILL BECOME WESTERLY AND NORTHWESTERLY TONIGHT INTO TUESDAY
MORNING BEHIND A COLD FRONT. WINDS WILL TURN BACK TO THE
SOUTHWEST LATER WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY, AS WEAK HIGH PRESSURE MOVES
THROUGH THE OHIO VALLEY.
BOXELL
MKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
WI...NONE.
LM...NONE.
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