746
FXUS63 KMKX 091023 AAA
AFDMKX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MILWAUKEE/SULLIVAN WI
523 AM CDT THU JUL 9 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- SCATTERED SHOWERS AND SOME THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED AT
TIMES INTO THIS EVENING. GUSTY WINDS, SMALL HAIL AND LOCALLY
HEAVY RAINFALL ARE POSSIBLE IN ANY STRONGER STORMS.
- HOT AND MUGGY CONDITIONS RETURN EARLY NEXT WEEK.
UPDATE
ISSUED 523 AM CDT THU JUL 9 2026
WEAK 925 MB FRONTOGENESIS NEAR THE SLOW-MOVING COLD FRONT,
ALONG WITH WEAK LOW LEVEL WARM AIR ADVECTION CONTINUES TO BRING
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND A FEW STORMS THROUGH THE AREA EARLY THIS
MORNING. THIS ACTIVITY SHOULD CONTINUE AT TIMES TODAY INTO THIS
EVENING, AS THE COLD FRONT SLOWLY SAGS SOUTHWARD THROUGH THE
AREA.
CAMS ARE GENERALLY SHOWING A PEAK IN THIS ACTIVITY FROM MIDDLE
AFTERNOON INTO EARLY THIS EVENING, WITH THE BETTER CHANCES
TOWARD THE WISCONSIN AND ILLINOIS BORDER AREA. FORECAST
SOUNDINGS ARE SHOWING 1000 TO 1500 J/KG OF MEAN LAYER CAPE THIS
AFTERNOON, WITH AROUND 20 KNOTS OF DEEP LAYER BULK SHEAR.
THIS SHOULD SUPPORT GUSTY WINDS AND SMALL HAIL WITH ANY
STRONGER STORMS THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING. LOCALLY HEAVY
RAINFALL IS ALSO POSSIBLE, WITH PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES
REMAINING RELATIVELY HIGH THIS MORNING INTO THIS AFTERNOON AND
FAIRLY SLOW MOVEMENT OF ANY SHOWERS AND STORMS. STAY WEATHER
AWARE INTO THIS EVENING IF YOU HAVE ANY OUTDOOR PLANS.
THIS ACTIVITY SHOULD WEAKEN BY LATER THIS EVENING AND
OVERNIGHT, WITH SOME FOG POSSIBLE AS NORTHEAST WINDS BEHIND THE
FRONT BRING IN SOME MOISTURE OFF OF LAKE MICHIGAN. PATCHY DENSE
FOG MAY OCCUR LATER TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY MORNING, WITH THE BETTER
CHANCES CLOSER TO LAKE MICHIGAN.
WOOD
SHORT TERM
ISSUED 1214 AM CDT THU JUL 9 2026
TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY
ISOLATED SHOWERS AND STORMS ARE POSSIBLE TONIGHT INTO EARLY
THURSDAY AS INSTABILITY AND PLENTY OF MOISTURE LINGER WHILE A
SHORTWAVE MOVES THROUGH. MODELS HAVE BACKED OFF ON OVERALL
PRECIP COVERAGE FOR TONIGHT, SO BUMPED PRECIP CHANCES DOWN TO
THE 20-40 PERCENT RANGE. CLOUDS AND DEWPOINTS IN THE UPPER 60S
TO AROUND 70 WILL KEEP TEMPS FROM FALLING MUCH MORE THE
REMAINDER OF THE NIGHT.
COULD SEE SOME REDEVELOPMENT OF STORMS BY THURSDAY AFTERNOON AS
A SURFACE TROUGH DROPS THROUGH SOUTHERN WISCONSIN. STILL WOULDN'T
BE SURPRISED BY A STRONGER STORM OR TWO PRODUCING SOME SMALL HAIL
AND GUSTY WINDS DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS. LOCALLY
HEAVY RAINFALL IS ALSO POSSIBLE WITH ANY SLOW MOVING STRONGER
STORMS. WENT WITH HIGH TEMPS IN THE UPPER 70S TO LOW 80S
TOMORROW GIVEN THE SURFACE TROUGH DROPPING THROUGH, PLENTY OF
CLOUDS, AND SHOWER/STORM CHANCES. IT WILL BE A HUMID DAY AGAIN,
WITH DEWPOINTS LINGERING AROUND 70.
DDV
LONG TERM
ISSUED 1214 AM CDT THU JUL 9 2026
FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY:
MAINLY DRY WEATHER IS LIKELY FROM FRIDAY INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK AS
AN UPPER RIDGE BUILDS IN AND SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE LARGELY SITS
OVER THE REGION. NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION TO SEE A FEW STORMS
SNEAK OVER THE TOP OF THE RIDGE INTO SOUTHERN WISCONSIN AS THE
RIDGE MOVES IN LATE THIS WEEK AND BEGINS TO FLATTEN BY MID-WEEK
NEXT WEEK. OVERALL THOUGH, DRY WEATHER SHOULD PREVAIL MUCH OF
THE TIME ALONG WITH INCREASING TEMPERATURES THIS WEEKEND INTO
EARLY NEXT WEEK. HIGHS AROUND 90 ARE POSSIBLE MONDAY THROUGH
WEDNESDAY. DEWPOINTS WILL IN THE MID 60S TO AROUND 70 WILL BE A
LITTLE LOWER THAN THE LAST STRETCH OF 90+ DEGREE TEMPS, WHICH
SHOULD KEEP HEAT AFTERNOON HEAT INDICES FROM REACHING THE 100
DEGREE MARK. CURRENTLY EXPECTING THE HEAT INDEX TO TOP OUT IN
THE 90-95 DEGREE RANGE MON-WED.
DDV
AVIATION
ISSUED 523 AM CDT THU JUL 9 2026
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND A FEW STORMS SHOULD CONTINUE TO MOVE
THROUGH THE AREA AT TIMES TODAY INTO THIS EVENING, AS THE WEAK
COLD FRONT SLOWLY SAGS SOUTHWARD THROUGH THE AREA.
A PEAK IN THIS ACTIVITY FROM MIDDLE AFTERNOON INTO EARLY THIS
EVENING LOOKS REASONABLE, WITH THE BETTER CHANCES FRO TERMINALS
TOWARD THE WISCONSIN AND ILLINOIS BORDER AREA. GUSTY WINDS AND
SMALL HAIL MAY OCCUR WITH ANY STRONGER STORMS THIS AFTERNOON
AND EARLY EVENING. LOCALLY REDUCED CEILING AND VISIBILITY
VALUES MAY OCCUR WITH ANY STORMS.
SOME LOWER CEILINGS FROM 800 TO 1800 FEET AGL MAY MOVE THROUGH
NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE AREA THIS MORNING, PERHAPS INCLUDING
THE SHEBOYGAN AND MADISON TERMINALS. THESE SHOULD RISE TO ABOVE
3500 FEET AGL THIS AFTERNOON.
THIS ACTIVITY SHOULD WEAKEN BY LATER THIS EVENING AND
OVERNIGHT, WITH SOME 1 TO 5 MILE VISIBILITY FOG POSSIBLE AS
NORTHEAST WINDS BEHIND THE FRONT BRING IN SOME MOISTURE OFF OF
LAKE MICHIGAN. PATCHY DENSE FOG MAY OCCUR LATER TONIGHT INTO
FRIDAY MORNING, WITH THE BETTER CHANCES FOR TERMINALS CLOSER TO
LAKE MICHIGAN. LOW CEILINGS OF 1000 TO 1500 FEET AGL, PERHAPS
LOWER, MAY OCCUR AS WELL FOR THE TERMINALS NEAR THE LAKESHORE
LATER TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY MORNING.
WOOD
MARINE
ISSUED 523 AM CDT THU JUL 9 2026
LIGHT SOUTH WINDS WILL BECOME NORTH TO NORTHEAST BEHIND A COLD
FRONT MOVING SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE LAKE TODAY INTO TONIGHT. SOME
FOG MAY DEVELOP AT TIMES DURING THIS PERIOD, WITH PATCHY DENSE
FOG POSSIBLE INTO FRIDAY MORNING, AS WARM AIR REMAINS OVER THE
COOLER LAKE WATERS. WINDS WILL REMAIN NORTH TO NORTHEAST ON
FRIDAY, AS HIGH PRESSURE AROUND 30.0 INCHES BUILDS INTO THE THE
REGION FROM THE NORTH. THE HIGH SHOULD SHIFT SOUTHEAST OVER THE
WEEKEND, WHICH SHOULD CONTINUE TO BRING LIGHT TO MODEST WINDS.
WOOD
MKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
WI...NONE.
LM...NONE.
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