469
FXUS63 KMKX 131602
AFDMKX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MILWAUKEE/SULLIVAN WI
1002 AM CST SAT DEC 13 2025
KEY MESSAGES
- AN ARCTIC AIRMASS SETTLES IN THIS WEEKEND WITH WIND CHILLS
RANGING FROM NEGATIVE 10F TO NEGATIVE 30F. COLD WEATHER
ADVISORIES ARE IN EFFECT UNTIL 10 AM CST SUNDAY.
- ABOVE NORMAL TEMPS DEVELOP FOR TUESDAY TO THURSDAY. 40-50%
PERCENT CHANCES FOR RAIN LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT TO THURSDAY
MORNING.
UPDATE
ISSUED 1002 AM CST SAT DEC 13 2025
WIND CHILL VALUES THIS MORNING REMAIN BETWEEN NEGATIVE 10 AND
NEGATIVE 20 DEGREES, WITH BRISK NORTHWESTERLY WINDS BRINGING IN
COLDER AIR FROM NORTHERN MINNESOTA AND WISCONSIN THROUGH THIS
AFTERNOON. EXPECTING AIR TEMPERATURE TO REMAIN IN THE SINGLE
DIGITS THROUGHOUT THE AFTERNOON, WITH GUSTY WINDS KEEPING WIND
CHILL VALUES IN THE NEGATIVE TEENS TO NEGATIVE 20S FROM THE
I-90/I-94 CORRIDOR NORTHWARD. ALTHOUGH CONDITIONS ARE STRUGGLING
TO REACH COLD WEATHER ADVISORY CRITERIA ALONG THE I-90/I-94
CORRIDOR AT THIS TIME, NOT ADJUSTING THE AREA AT THIS TIME DUE
TO EXPECTATIONS OF WINDS AND COLDER TEMPERATURES TO WORK THEIR
WAYS IN WITHIN THE NEXT 8 HOURS. OVERNIGHT, EXPECT ANY LINGERING
CLOUDS TO CLEAR, WITH RAPID RADIATIONAL COOLING ACROSS ALL OF
SOUTHERN WISCONSIN, WITH COLD WEATHER ADVISORIES IN PLACE AS
GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS CONTINUE AND WIND CHILLS FALL INTO THE
NEGATIVE 20S.
MH
SHORT TERM
ISSUED 323 AM CST SAT DEC 13 2025
TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT:
COLD ADVECTION WILL WEAKEN LATER THIS MORNING BUT ONLY AFTER AN
ARCTIC AIRMASS IS WELL ESTABLISHED. A BAND OF FRONTOGENETIC SNOW
WILL REMAIN TO THE SOUTH ACROSS IA AND IL TODAY. WEAKER COLD
ADVECTION ON CONTINUED NWLY WINDS WILL THEN CONTINUE THROUGH
TNT, SUPPORTED BY AN UPPER TROUGH AXIS THAT WILL SWING FROM SRN
CANADA SOUTHEASTWARD THROUGH THE WRN GREAT LAKES. AT THE
SURFACE, ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE WILL TRACK FROM THE NRN HIGH
PLAINS TO CENTRAL IL BY EARLY SUNDAY EVENING. COLD WX ADVISORIES
REMAIN IN EFFECT FOR WIND CHILLS OF -20F TO -30F. HIGH TEMPS
ONLY IN THE SINGLE DIGITS TODAY AND SUNDAY AND WELL BELOW ZERO
TNT. ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN PASS TO THE SOUTH SUN NT
WITH BREEZY SWLY WINDS AND WARM ADVECTION BEGINNING LATE SUN NT.
GEHRING
LONG TERM
ISSUED 323 AM CST SAT DEC 13 2025
MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY:
THE ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE WEAKENS AND PUSHES SOUTHEAST OF THE
REGION MONDAY, CONTINUING INTO THE ATLANTIC OCEAN THROUGH MID
WEEK. BREEZY SOUTHWEST WINDS (STRONG WAA) ARE EXPECTED AT TIMES
THROUGH THE FIRST HALF OF NEXT WEEK, LIKELY BOOSTING DAYTIME HIGHS
SLIGHTLY ABOVE THE FREEZING MARK TUESDAY, THEN TOWARDS 40 DEGREES
FOR WEDNESDAY. STRONG LOW PRESSURE TRACKING EASTWARD ACROSS
CANADA WILL ALLOW THE WAA TO CONTINUE THE PACE TUESDAY EVEN AS THE
ARCTIC HIGH DISSIPATES AND MERGES INTO THE ATLANTIC OCEAN.
PREDOMINANTLY DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED THROUGH THE FIRST HALF OF
THE WEEK.
THE NEXT NOTEWORTHY CHANCE FOR PRECIPITATION IS WEDNESDAY EVENING
THROUGH THURSDAY, COURTESY OF A PASSING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM. THE
FAVORED TRACK OF THIS LOW IS ALONG THE CONUS/CANADA BORDERLINE,
PASSING LAKE SUPERIOR THURSDAY MORNING. THAT SAID, A FEW OF THE
ECMWF-ENS AND GEFS ENSEMBLE MEMBERS PREFER A COLORADO LOW OR
PANHANDLE HOOK TRACK. THE FAVORED TRACK WOULD BE A RAIN ONLY
EVENT, THE MUCH LESS LIKELY SOUTHERN TRACK COULD THEORETICALLY
YIELD SOME SNOW. THERE IS SOME SOLID DISPERSION IN ENSEMBLE
TEMPERATURE GUIDANCE FOR LATE NEXT WEEK, BUT THE GENERAL IDEA
(BASED ON ENSEMBLE IQRS) IS A SLIGHT COOL DOWN BEHIND THE
DEPARTING LOW PRESSURE (THURSDAY NIGHT), THEN DAYTIME HIGHS
STEADYING OUT AROUND THE MID 30S INTO THE FOLLOWING WEEKEND.
GENERALLY LOOKING LIKE A MILD (ABOVE AVERAGE TEMPERATURE) WEATHER
PATTERN INTO LATER THIS MONTH BASED ON THE LATEST CPC OUTLOOKS.
SHEPPARD
AVIATION
ISSUED 1002 AM CST SAT DEC 13 2025
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGHOUT TODAY AND TONIGHT, WITH
ANY LINGERING VFR CLOUD COVER DISSIPATING THIS EVENING.
EXPECTING GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS TO ALSO CONTINUE THROUGHOUT
TODAY AND TONIGHT, WITH GUSTS AROUND 20 KT. WINDS WILL SLOWLY
DIMINISH THROUGH SUNDAY, BECOMING LIGHT AND VARIABLE OVERNIGHT.
HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS MOVE BACK IN OVERNIGHT SUNDAY, WITH WINDS
SHIFTING TO BECOME SOUTHWESTERLY INTO MONDAY MORNING.
MH
MARINE
ISSUED 323 AM CST SAT DEC 13 2025
BRISK NORTHWEST WINDS AND HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WILL CONTINUE TODAY
INTO SUNDAY MORNING IN THE WAKE OF AN ARCTIC FRONT. A HEAVY
FREEZING SPRAY WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR THE ENTIRE OPEN LAKE
UNTIL NOON CST SUNDAY. THE BRISK WINDS ARE DUE TO LOW PRESSURE
TRACKING FROM ONTARIO INTO QUEBEC, AND ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE
AROUND 30.8 INCHES TRACKING FROM THE NORTHERN HIGH PLAINS TO
IOWA THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING.
WINDS WILL GRADUALLY EASE SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING AS THE
ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE MOVES ACROSS ILLINOIS INTO THE OHIO VALLEY.
BUT AS THE HIGH CONTINUES TO MOVE AWAY, BRISK SOUTHWEST WINDS,
POSSIBLY REACHING GALE FORCE, DEVELOPS FOR LATE SUNDAY NIGHT INTO
MONDAY MORNING. MUCH LIGHTER WINDS WILL THEN RETURN LATE MONDAY
INTO MONDAY NIGHT.
A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WILL CONTINUE UNTIL NOON CST SUNDAY FROM
SHEBOYGAN TO WINTHROP HARBOR DUE TO THE PERSISTENT BRISK NWLY
WINDS.
GEHRING
MKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
WI...COLD WEATHER ADVISORY...WIZ046-WIZ047-WIZ051-WIZ052-WIZ056-
WIZ057-WIZ058-WIZ059-WIZ060-WIZ063-WIZ064-WIZ065-WIZ066
UNTIL 10 AM SUNDAY.
COLD WEATHER ADVISORY...WIZ062-WIZ067-WIZ068-WIZ069-WIZ070-
WIZ071-WIZ072...6 PM SATURDAY TO 10 AM SUNDAY.
LM...HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING...LMZ080-LMZ261-LMZ362-LMZ364-
LMZ366-LMZ563-LMZ565-LMZ567-LMZ669-LMZ671-LMZ673-LMZ675-
LMZ777-LMZ779-LMZ868-LMZ870-LMZ872-LMZ874-LMZ876-LMZ878
UNTIL 9 AM SUNDAY.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY...LMZ643-LMZ644-LMZ645-LMZ646 UNTIL NOON
SUNDAY.
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