552  
FXUS63 KMKX 240148  
AFDMKX  
 
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION  
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MILWAUKEE/SULLIVAN WI  
848 PM CDT THU SEP 23 2021  
   
UPDATE
 
 
(ISSUED 848 PM CDT THU SEP 23 2021)  
 
JUST SOME MID LEVEL CLOUDS HANGING ON ACROSS THE FAR NORTHEAST  
THIS EVENING AS LOW PRESSURE STARTS TO PULL AWAY TO THE EAST. LOOK  
FOR WINDS TO CONTINUE TO DECREASE TONIGHT, TURNING WESTERLY AND  
THEN SOUTHWESTERLY OVERNIGHT INTO TOMORROW MORNING AS A WEAK  
SURFACE RIDGE MOVES THROUGH. TEMPERATURES ARE ON TRACK TO FALL  
INTO THE MID TO UPPER 40S OVERNIGHT.  
 
BOXELL  
 

 
   
SHORT TERM
 
 
(ISSUED 349 PM CDT THU SEP 23 2021)  
 
TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT:  
 
PRECIP BRUSHING THE FAR NORTHEAST WILL WIND DOWN BY EARLY  
EVENING, WITH DECREASING CLOUDS AND WINDS OVERNIGHT. THIS WILL  
ALLOW TEMPS DO DROP INTO THE 40S MOST PLACES ONCE AGAIN.  
 
A STRONG SHORTWAVE AND COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA  
LATER FRIDAY INTO FRIDAY NIGHT. PRECIPITABLE WATER SHOULD GET UP  
TO AROUND AN INCH AHEAD OF THE FRONT, WITH SOME DECENT FORCING AS  
THIS SYSTEM MOVES THROUGH. MOISTURE AND FORCING LOOK EVEN A BIT  
BETTER NOW THAN MODELS WERE SHOWING 24 HOURS. SEEMS LIKE A GOOD  
BET FOR SOME SHOWERS, MAINLY LATE IN THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING.  
INSTABILITY LOOKS A TAD BETTER, SO KEPT A SMALL CHANCE FOR  
THUNDERSTORMS. TEMPS WILL BE WARMER FRIDAY WITH SOUTHERLY WINDS  
EXPECTED AHEAD OF THE FRONT. SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL GUST 25 TO 35  
MPH AHEAD OF THE FRONT AS WELL.  
 
DDV  
 

 
   
LONG TERM
 
 
(ISSUED 349 PM CDT THU SEP 23 2021)  
 
SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY:  
 
IT WILL BE COOLER AND DRY SATURDAY BEHIND THE DEPARTING SYSTEM.  
IT THEN LOOKS MAINLY DRY AND MILDER FOR THE FIRST HALF OF NEXT  
WEEK. THE MAIN QUESTION FOR EARLY NEXT WEEK IS STILL HOW MUCH THE  
UPPER RIDGE WILL LEAN INTO THE AREA VS STAYING IN A TROUGHING  
PATTERN. MODELS OVERALL HAVE TRENDED MORE TOWARDS THE RIDGE,  
SUGGESTING NEAR TO ABOVE NORMAL TEMPS FOR THIS PERIOD. ONSHORE  
WINDS MOST DAYS WILL RESULT IN COOLER CONDITIONS NEAR THE LAKE.  
 
DDV  
 

 
   
AVIATION
 
 
(ISSUED 848 PM CDT THU SEP 23 2021)  
 
VFR IS EXPECTED OVERNIGHT AND FOR MOST OF THE DAY TOMORROW. NORTH  
WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO EASE OVERNIGHT, AND WILL BECOME MORE  
WESTERLY AND THEN SOUTHWESTERLY LATE TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY MORNING  
AS A SURFACE RIDGE MOVES THROUGH. EXPECT SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST WINDS  
TO INCREASE SUBSTANTIALLY DURING THE AFTERNOON, WITH 20-30 KNOT  
GUSTS EXPECTED.  
 
A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA TOMORROW EVENING, BRINGING  
WITH IT SHOWERS AND PERHAPS A FEW THUNDERSTORMS. CLOUD BASES WILL  
BE RATHER HIGH, SO VFR SHOULD STILL PREVAIL OUTSIDE OF THE  
IMMEDIATE VICINITY OF ANY PRECIPITATION. WINDS WILL BECOME  
NORTHWESTERLY BEHIND THE FRONT TOMORROW NIGHT.  
 
BOXELL  
 

 
   
MARINE
 
 
(ISSUED 349 PM CDT THU SEP 23 2021)  
 
LOW PRESSURE OVER SOUTHEAST MICHIGAN WILL PROGRESS TO JUST NORTH  
OF LAKE HURON BY FRIDAY MORNING, WEAKENING SLIGHTLY AS IT  
CONTINUES NORTHWARD. STRONG NORTHERLY WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO  
GRADUALLY EASE FROM NORTH TO SOUTH THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.  
HIGH WAVES WILL SLOWLY SUBSIDE THROUGH TONIGHT AS WELL.  
 
AFTER A BRIEF PERIOD OF LIGHTER WINDS, SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL  
INCREASE FRIDAY AFTERNOON AHEAD OF LOW PRESSURE TROUGH OVER UPPER  
MICHIGAN AND NORTHERN WISCONSIN. THERE IS A CHANCE FOR SOUTHERLY  
GALES ACROSS THE SOUTHERN OPEN WATERS AS THE TROUGH SWINGS ACROSS  
LAKE MICHIGAN FRIDAY EVENING. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS ARE  
EXPECTED FOR THE NEARSHORE WATERS TOMORROW AFTERNOON AND EVENING.  
HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN THROUGH THE MIDWEST AND OHIO RIVER VALLEY  
SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY.  
 
DDV  
 

 
   
BEACHES
 
 
(ISSUED 349 PM CDT THU SEP 23 2021)  
 
STRONG NORTHERLY WINDS WILL GRADUALLY EASE INTO THIS EVENING, WITH  
WAVES OF 4 TO 8 FEET LINGERING AT LAKE MICHIGAN BEACHES.  
DANGEROUS CURRENTS WILL ARE LIKELY AND CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE  
TO BE DANGEROUS FOR EVEN THE STRONGEST OF SWIMMERS. SWIMMING IS  
NOT ADVISED UNTIL CONDITIONS IMPROVE GOING INTO FRIDAY.  
 
DDV  
 

 
   
MKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
 
 
WI...BEACH HAZARDS STATEMENT...WIZ052-WIZ060-WIZ066-WIZ071-WIZ072  
UNTIL MIDNIGHT FRIDAY.  
 
LM...GALE WATCH...LMZ080-LMZ669-LMZ671-LMZ673-LMZ675-LMZ777-LMZ779-  
LMZ870-LMZ872-LMZ874-LMZ876-LMZ878...5 PM FRIDAY TO 1 AM  
SATURDAY.  
 
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY...LMZ643-LMZ644-LMZ645-LMZ646 UNTIL 3 AM  
FRIDAY.  
 

 
 

 
 
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