495
FXUS63 KMKX 291118
AFDMKX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MILWAUKEE/SULLIVAN WI
618 AM CDT FRI MAY 29 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- DRY WEATHER UNDER HIGH PRESSURE EXPECTED THROUGH THE WEEKEND
AND INTO NEXT WEEK. FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS MAY INCREASE INTO
EARLY NEXT WEEK.
UPDATE
ISSUED 615 AM CDT FRI MAY 29 2026
INFLUENCE FROM HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO BRING DRY AND MILD
PATTERN TO SOUTHERN WI TODAY WITH HIGHS CLIMBING INTO THE UPPER
70S LOWER 80S FOR INLAND AREAS, WHILE A LAKE BREEZE IS LIKELY TO
DEVELOP AND PUSH INLAND THROUGH THE AFTERNOON KEEPING TEMPS
COOLER BY LAKE MICHIGAN. STILL EXPECTING TO SEE EASTERLY WINDS
PICK UP OVERNIGHT INTO SATURDAY WITH A BACKDOOR COLD FRONT LIKE
BOUNDARY BRINGING COOLER ONSHORE FLOW FOR SATURDAY. THUS LOOKING
AT HIGHS ONLY IN THE UPPER 50S TO 60S FOR LAKESHORE COUNTIES
WITH LOW TO UPPER 70S WEST OF THE KETTLE MORAINE. GIVEN THIS
PATTERN WITH BREEZY ONSHORE FLOW, WAVES ARE EXPECTED TO BUILD TO
AROUND 3 FEET FOR SOUTHEASTERN WI BEACHES RESULTING IN MODERATE
SWIM RISK FOR SATURDAY. WHILE CONFIDENT IN MODERATE SWIM RISK,
COULD SEE WAVES BUILD TO AROUND 4-5 FEET IF WINDS PERSIST
LONGER AND INCREASE A BIT MORE. SO WILL NEED TO MONITOR FOR A
POTENTIAL UPGRADE IF THIS TREND MATERIALIZES.
WAGNER
SHORT TERM
ISSUED 1142 PM CDT THU MAY 28 2026
TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT:
LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH MUCH OF THE DAY
FRIDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES IN ACROSS WISCONSIN AND
MICHIGAN. TEMPERATURES WILL DROP INTO THE MID 40S TO UPPER 50S
TONIGHT UNDER CLEAR SKIES AND COULD LEAD TO PATCHY FOG
DEVELOPMENT MAINLY FOR LOW LYING AREAS NORTH AND WEST OF
MADISON. THE MAIN LIMITING FACTOR FOR FOG DEVELOPMENT IS THE
DEWPOINTS/MOISTURE. DEWPOINTS HAVE SLOWLY ACROSS FAR SOUTHERN,
EAST CENTRAL AND SOUTHEASTERN WISCONSIN, WHICH IS NOW IN THE
UPPER 30S. DEWPOINTS ARE SLIGHTLY HIGHER FURTHER WEST IN THE MID
TO UPPER 40S. LONG AND SHORT HERE, PATCHY FOG IS POSSIBLE AND IT
WILL BURN OFF SHORTLY AFTER SUNRISE.
OTHERWISE DRY, QUIET, AND WARM FRIDAY. GIVEN THE LIGHT AND
VARIABLE WINDS, A LAKE BREEZE WILL LIKELY MOVE INLAND WHICH WILL
KEEP CONDITIONS COOLER ALONG THE LAKE. GENERALLY CAN EXPECT
TEMPERATURES IN THE LOW 80S FROM THE KETTLE MORAINE WEST AND
HIGHS IN THE MID 60S TO UPPER 70S FOR AREAS EAST OF THERE.
FRIDAY NIGHT WILL BE ANOTHER BENIGN WEATHER NIGHT FOR SOUTHERN
WISCONSIN. NOT ANTICIPATING FOG TO DEVELOP WITH THE POTENTIAL
FOR SOME UPPER LEVEL CLOUDS, LOWER DEWPOINTS, AND OVERNIGHT LOWS
IN THE LOW TO MID 50S. SO SLIGHTLY WARMER AND DRYER MEANS NO FOG
:).
PATTERSON
LONG TERM
ISSUED 1142 PM CDT THU MAY 28 2026
SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY:
A LARGELY QUITE AND UNEVENTFUL EXTENDED FORECAST FOR SOUTHERN
WISCONSIN. WISCONSIN IS GOING TO BE TRAPPED UNDER A RIDGE
BETWEEN A STRONG TROUGH OUT IN THE EASTERN CONUS AND ANOTHER IN
THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS/ROCKIES. AT THE SURFACE, A BROAD AREA OF
HIGH PRESSURE LOOKS TO LINGER ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES REGION
THROUGH MID WEAK. THE AREAS OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL PREDOMINATELY
DESCEND DOWN FROM CANADA AND LINGER IN THE REGION BEFORE
ADVECTING SOUTHEAST WITH TIME TOWARD THE MID ATLANTIC COAST.
THERE ARE SIGNALS FOR A WEAK BACKDOOR COLD FRONT SATURDAY NIGHT
INTO SUNDAY AND AGAIN MONDAY INTO EARLY TUESDAY. THERE IS A VERY
SMALL CHANCE (AROUND 10%) FOR SHOWERS TO DEVELOP MONDAY WITH
THE BACKDOOR FRONT, BUT OTHERWISE THE BIGGEST IMPACTS HERE WILL
BE A WIND SHIFT AND SLIGHTLY COOLER TEMPERATURES.
WINDS WILL BE LIGHT THROUGH THE EXTENDED WITH HIGHS EXPECTED TO
BE IN THE UPPER 60S TO LOW 80S THROUGH MID WEEK. GENERALLY
COOLER TEMPERATURES EXPECTED NEAR THE LAKE WITH WARMER
CONDITIONS INLAND. THE COOLEST TEMPERATURES ALONG THE LAKE ARE EXPECTED
IN THE HOURS BEHIND THOSE BACKDOOR COLD FRONTS. TEMPERATURE
TRENDS LOOK TO CLIMB UPWARD THURSDAY WITH HINTS AT HIGHS IN THE
UPPER 80S.
THE ONLY CONCERN FOR THE EXTENDED WILL BE THE POTENTIAL FOR
SOME INCREASING FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS. WITH THE HUDSON BAY
HIGHS WERE LOOKING AT A PROLONGED PERIOD OF DRY CONDITIONS ON
TOP OF AN ALREADY FAIRLY DRY MAY. THE MOST RECENT DROUGHT
MONITOR HAS PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN WISCONSIN AS ABNORMALLY DRY
ALREADY, WHICH ISNT HORRIBLE (ESPECIALLY GIVEN THE WET APRIL WE
HAD). WILL JUST HAVE TO KEEP AN EYE ON HOW WELL RH'S/DEWPOINTS
RECOVER OVERNIGHT AND HOW MUCH MIXING WE GET DURING THE DAYTIME
(DRYING). THIS WILL BE ESPECIALLY IMPORTANT BEHIND THE WEAK
BACKDOOR FRONTS. NOT A CRITICAL CONCERN BY ANY MEANS JUST
SOMETHING TO MONITOR.
PATTERSON
AVIATION
ISSUED 615 AM CDT FRI MAY 29 2026
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH LIGHT AND
VARIABLE WINDS FOR MUCH OF SOUTHERN WI TERMINALS. LAKESHORE
TERMINALS ARE EXPECTED TO SEE LAKE BREEZE DEVELOP AND PUSH
INLAND LATER THIS MORNING AND AFTERNOON BRINGING BREEZY AND
ABRUPT EASTERLY WIND SHIFT. WINDS THEN BECOME LIGHT AND
VARIABLE AGAIN BEHIND THE LAKE BREEZE PASSAGE THROUGH THE
EVENING BEFORE A BACKDOOR COLD FRONT PUSHES SOUTHWARD AND BRINGS
INCREASED EASTERLY WINDS LATER SATURDAY MORNING AND INTO THE
AFTERNOON.
WAGNER
MARINE
ISSUED 1142 PM CDT THU MAY 28 2026
HIGH PRESSURE AROUND 30.3 INCHES WILL REMAIN ACROSS THE GREAT
LAKES REGION NOW THROUGH ROUGHLY MID NEXT WEEK. LIGHT AND
VARIABLE WINDS WILL BE PREDOMINATELY FOR MUCH OF THIS TIME.
SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY MORNING AND MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY
THERE WILL BE A CHANCE FOR TWO SEPARATE WEAK COLD FRONTS TO
PASS LAKE MICHIGAN. DRY WEATHER AND A WEAK WIND SHIFT TO
NORTHERLY IS EXPECTED BEHIND EACH FRONT. AS THE SECOND WEAK
FRONT PASSES, THE DOMINATED HIGH PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO SLIDE
SOUTHEAST TOWARD THE MID ATLANTIC WHICH SHOULD KEEP WINDS NORTH
TO NORTHEAST INTO WEDNESDAY.
PATTERSON
MKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
WI...NONE.
LM...NONE.
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