456
FXUS63 KMKX 231133
AFDMKX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MILWAUKEE/SULLIVAN WI
633 AM CDT FRI OCT 23 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- DENSE FOG OVER FAR ERN WI THIS MORNING.
- ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND DRY CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE
INTO THE WEEKEND.
- TEMPERATURES TRENDING COOLER FOR EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH
NORTHEAST WINDS. THERE ARE SOME CHANCES (20 TO 30 PERCENT) FOR
SHOWERS FOR THE MIDDLE TO LATER PORTIONS OF NEXT WEEK.
UPDATE
ISSUED 632 AM CDT FRI OCT 23 2026
SATELLITE IMAGERY AND OBSERVATIONS SUPPORTED CANCELLING THE
DENSE FOG ADVISORY FOR DODGE COUNTY. OTHERWISE THE ADVISORY
REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 10 AM CDT FOR ERN WI. SOME FOG WILL
LIKELY LINGER TOWARD NOON OR EVEN INTO THE AFTERNOON NEAR THE
LAKE. LIGHT SELY WINDS TODAY WILL BECOME SLY WINDS AND INCREASE
A BIT TNT, WHILE A NARROW AND HIGH AMPLITUDE RIDGE BUILDS ALOFT.
GIVEN THAT A DRIER AIRMASS EXISTS JUST TO THE SOUTH THIS MORNING,
BELIEVE LITTLE TO NO FOG WILL OCCUR TNT. MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL
CLOUDS WILL ALSO STREAM ACROSS THE REGION TNT LIMITING THE
RADIATIONAL POTENTIAL FOR FOG. OTHERWISE A VERY MILD SSWLY FLOW
WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE WEEKEND BUT WITH MORE CLOUDS AS WELL.
GEHRING
SHORT TERM
ISSUED 1151 PM CDT THU OCT 22 2026
TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY:
AREAS OF FOG WILL LIKELY CONTINUE IN THE EAST INTO FRIDAY
MORNING AND WILL BE DENSE AT TIMES. THE CURRENT DENSE FOG
ADVISORY RUNS UNTIL 10 AM FRIDAY AND MAY NEED TO BE EXPANDED A
BIT TO THE NORTH AND SOUTH BASED ON LATEST WEBCAMS AND
OBSERVATIONS. LATEST MODELS SHOW THAT THE BULK OF THE FOG AND
LOW CLOUDS SHOULD DISSIPATE BY MID-MORNING TOMORROW, BUT
WOULDN'T BE SURPRISED TO SEE THESE CONDITIONS HANG AROUND IN A
FEW SPOTS THROUGH LATE MORNING GIVEN THE LIGHT WINDS. SOUTHERLY
WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO PICK UP A BIT BY THE AFTERNOON ON THE BACK
SIDE OF HIGH PRESSURE, WHICH SHOULD HELP TO GET RID OF ANY
LINGERING FOG.
TEMPERATURES WILL LIKELY BE SLOW TO WARM IN THE EAST TOMORROW
GIVEN THE LINGERING CLOUDS/FOG, BUT THERE SHOULD BE ENOUGH
SUNSHINE IN THE AFTERNOON FOR HIGHS BACK UP IN THE UPPER 60S TO
NEAR 70. HIGHS IN THE 71-74 RANGE AREA LIKELY IN THE WEST GIVEN
MORE SUNSHINE.
SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL PERSIST FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY, AS THE
HIGH TO THE EAST ISN'T EXPECTED TO BUDGE. THOUGH A FAIR AMOUNT
OF HIGH CLOUDS ARE LIKELY SATURDAY, ENOUGH FILTERED SUNSHINE IS
EXPECTED FOR HIGHS AROUND 70 AGAIN GIVEN THE CONTINUED WARM
SOUTHERLY LOW LEVEL FLOW.
DDV
LONG TERM
ISSUED 1151 PM CDT THU OCT 22 2026
SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY:
LOW PRESSURE PASSING BY WELL TO THE NORTHEAST ON SUNDAY WILL
DRAG A COLD FRONT THROUGH SOUTHERN WISCONSIN BY THE AFTERNOON
AND/OR EVENING HOURS. THERE SHOULD BE ENOUGH TIME AHEAD OF THE
FRONT FOR SOUTHERLY WINDS THROUGH AT LEAST THE FIRST HALF OF THE
DAY, SO ANOTHER MILD DAY IS EXPECTED. WINDS WILL SHIFT TO
NORTHERLY BEHIND THE FRONT LATER IN THE DAY, WITH COOLER
CONDITIONS THEN EXPECTED ON MONDAY. NOT EXPECTING MUCH MOISTURE
AS THIS SYSTEM MOVES THROUGH, SO KEPT THE DRY FORECAST FOR
SUNDAY AND MONDAY.
TEMPS WILL REMAIN COOLER TUESDAY, THOUGH LIKELY STILL NEAR OR A
COUPLE DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL FOR LATE OCTOBER. A SHORTWAVE WILL
LIFT THROUGH THE REGION TUESDAY INTO TUESDAY NIGHT, THOUGH THE
MAIN FORCING AND MOISTURE IS LIKELY TO REMAIN NORTH OF THE
FORECAST AREA PER LATEST MODELS. ONLY HAVE 10-20 PERCENT CHANCE
FOR RAIN IN THE NORTHWEST AS THIS SYSTEM SLIDES BY TO THE NORTH.
DDV
AVIATION
ISSUED 632 AM CDT FRI OCT 23 2026
VSBYS OF 1/2-1/4SM FG AND CIGS OF 200 FT WILL CONTINUE OVER ERN
WI THROUGH 14-15Z WITH VFR CONDITIONS TOWARD 17-18Z TODAY. A
LITTLE FOG OR BR COULD LINGER RIGHT AT THE LAKE INTO THE
AFTERNOON AND TOWARD SHEBOYGAN. MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS TNT BUT
AREAS OF MVFR BR COULD OCCUR NEAR THE LAKE AND TOWARD SHEBOYGAN.
GEHRING
MARINE
ISSUED 1151 PM CDT THU OCT 22 2026
HIGH PRESSURE AROUND 30.5 INCHES OVER THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES
WILL LARGELY REMAIN IN PLACE FRIDAY THROUGH THE WEEKEND. LIGHT
WINDS WILL CONTINUE TONIGHT, INCREASING A BIT OUT OF THE SOUTH
ON FRIDAY ON THE WESTERN EDGE OF THE HIGH. SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST
WINDS WILL THEN PERSIST THROUGH THE WEEKEND BETWEEN THE HIGH TO
THE EAST AND A COLD FRONT TO THE NORTHWEST. WINDS WILL SHIFT TO
THE NORTH AND NORTHEAST BEHIND THE COLD FRONT LATER SUNDAY INTO
MONDAY.
FOG WILL LIKELY CONTINUE ACROSS A LARGE PORTION OF THE NORTHERN
2/3 OF LAKE MICHIGAN TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY MORNING. A DENSE FOG
ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT UNTIL 10 AM CDT. WOULDN'T BE SURPRISED TO
SEE THE FOG HANG ON INTO EARLY AFTERNOON ACROSS SOME PORTIONS OF
THE LAKE.
DDV
MKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
WI...DENSE FOG ADVISORY...WIZ051-WIZ052-WIZ059-WIZ060-WIZ065-WIZ066-
WIZ070-WIZ071-WIZ072 UNTIL 10 AM FRIDAY.
LM...DENSE FOG ADVISORY...LMZ261-LMZ362-LMZ364-LMZ366-LMZ563-LMZ565-
LMZ567-LMZ643-LMZ644-LMZ645-LMZ646-LMZ669-LMZ671-LMZ673-
LMZ675-LMZ777-LMZ868-LMZ870-LMZ872-LMZ874-LMZ876-LMZ878
UNTIL 10 AM FRIDAY.
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