608
FXUS63 KMKX 161848
AFDMKX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MILWAUKEE/SULLIVAN WI
148 PM CDT TUE JUN 16 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WITH HAIL UP TO ONE INCH
DIAMETER AND LOCALIZED GUSTY WINDS TO 45MPH WILL END FROM WEST
TO EAST LATE THIS AFTERNOON.
- WIDESPREAD SHOWERS (80-90 PERCENT CHANCE) AND SCATTERED
THUNDERSTORMS WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT. STILL MONITORING
A CONDITIONAL RISK FOR SEVERE STORMS (HAIL/WIND), THOUGH THE
GREATEST CHANCES WILL BE TO THE SOUTH OF THE AREA.
- LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN WEDNESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT IS TARGETING
FAR SOUTHERN WISCONSIN NEAR THE WI/IL STATE LINE.
- WINDS AND WAVES MAY APPROACH SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CRITERIA
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON INTO THURSDAY.
SHORT TERM
ISSUED 148 PM CDT TUE JUN 16 2026
REST OF THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT:
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS HAVE BLOSSOMED WITHIN A BROAD AREA
OF CYCLONIC FLOW ASSOCIATED WITH AN UPPER LOW MOVING INTO WI.
THUS FAR THE GREATEST COVERAGE OF STORMS HAS BEEN ALONG/NORTH OF
I-94, WITH A FEW IN FAR SOUTHEASTERN PORTIONS OF THE STATE.
LIGHTNING, HAIL UP TO ONE INCH DIAMETER AND WIND GUSTS TO 45MPH
WILL CONTINUE THIS AFTERNOON, WITH THIS ACTIVITY TAPERING OFF
FROM WEST TO EAST DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING.
QUIET WEATHER IS EXPECTED TONIGHT WITH LOWS IN THE 50S.
OUR NEXT STORM SYSTEM WILL BE ON OUR WESTERN DOORSTEP FIRST
THING WEDNESDAY MORNING. BROAD AREA OF RAIN AND EMBEDDED
THUNDER IS EXPECTED FOR THE MORNING HOURS. SEVERE STORMS ARE
NOT EXPECTED DURING THIS TIMEFRAME.
LOOKING AT THE PARAMETER SPACING FOR TOMORROW AFTERNOON AND
EVENING, THE CORRIDOR OF GREATEST SHEAR AND INSTABILITY WILL BE
SHUNTED TO OUR SOUTH. MUCH LIKE LAST THURSDAY'S EVENT, WE ARE
JUST ON THE OUTSIDE LOOKING TO THE SOUTH FOR THE BETTER
ENVIRONMENT. THAT SAID, THERE IS AN OPPORTUNITY FOR SOME
RECOVERY JUST AHEAD OF THE SURFACE LOW ENTERING CENTRAL WI
DURING THE MID/LATE AFTERNOON HOURS. THIS RECOVERY MAY MAKE IT
INTO WESTERN/SOUTHWESTERN PORTIONS OF THE AREA, AND WE WILL NEED
TO WATCH THIS VERY CLOSELY. THIS WILL BE ANOTHER SITUATION OF
WATCHING THE MESOSCALE CHANGES VERY CLOSELY. IF INSTABILITY
RECOVERY OCCURS AHEAD OF THE SURFACE LOW, MLCAPE WILL APPROACH
1500 J/KG AND ENOUGH SPEED SHEAR TO SUPPORT DAMAGING WINDS AND
HAIL WITH A FEW STORMS.
GAGAN
LONG TERM
ISSUED 148 PM CDT TUE JUN 16 2026
THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY:
AS THE LOW PRESSURE MOVES OUT OF THE REGION BY EARLY THURSDAY
MORNING, PRECIP CHANCES WILL DIMINISH WITH PRECIPITABLE WATER
DROPPING BELOW 1 INCH. LINGERING SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE
DURING THE DAY THURSDAY, TRENDING DRY THURSDAY EVENING. HIGH
PRESSURE WILL MOVE IN FROM THE NORTHERN PART OF THE GREAT
PLAINS. WITH THIS, COOLER AND DRIER AIR WILL BE EXPECTED AHEAD
OF THE WEEKEND. BY THE BEGINNING OF THE WEEKEND, WARMER TEMPS
AND INCREASED MOISTURE WILL BE ADVECTED INTO THE REGION AS MID-
LEVEL FLOW BECOMES MORE SOUTHERLY.
THE NEXT CHANCE FOR PRECIPITATION WILL BE ON SUNDAY, WHEN A LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVES WESTWARD FROM THE CENTRAL PLAINS INTO
SOUTHERN WISCONSIN. WITH THIS, PRECIPITABLE WATER WILL INCREASE
TO BE AROUND 1.5 INCHES ALONG THE WI/IL BORDER AND THIS WILL BE
THE REGION WITH PRECIP CHANCES WILL BE THE GREATEST (~50-60%).
BY MONDAY MORNING, THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL MOVE OUT OF THE
AREAS AND ANOTHER ROUND OF HIGH PRESSURE FROM THE DAKOTAS WILL
START TO BUILD IN BY MONDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING.
SOERGEL/GAGAN
GAGAN
AVIATION
ISSUED 148 PM CDT TUE JUN 16 2026
ACTIVE WEATHER PATTERN OVER THE NEXT 24 TO 36 HOURS. SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL MOVE WEST TO EAST ACROSS SOUTHERN
WISCONSIN THIS AFTERNOON, EXITING PRIOR TO SUNSET. LIGHTNING,
HAIL (MOSTLY UNDER ONE INCH), AND WIND GUSTS TO 45MPH ARE
EXPECTED WITH THIS ACTIVITY. OVERALL, CEILING AND VISIBILITY
RESTRICTIONS WILL BE LIMITED AND RATHER BRIEF. SHORT PERIODS OF
IFR VISIBILITY AND MVFR CEILINGS ARE EXPECTED BENEATH THE CORES
OF THESE STORMS.
THESE SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL EXIT/DECREASE IN COVERAGE BY LATE
AFTERNOON AND EARLY THIS EVENING WITH GUSTY WESTERLY WINDS
DECREASING IN THE EVENING.
ANOTHER ROUND OF RAIN AND EMBEDDED STORMS WILL MOVE IN FROM THE
WEST WEDNESDAY MORNING. A LARGER COVERAGE OF RAINFALL IS
EXPECTED WITH VFR CEILINGS AND GRADUALLY LOWERING TO MVFR LATE
LATE MORNING. WINDS WILL SHIFT TO THE SOUTHEAST DURING THE
DAYLIGHT HOURS OF THURSDAY MORNING.
GAGAN
MARINE
ISSUED 148 PM CDT TUE JUN 16 2026
BREEZY SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL SHIFT TO THE WEST-SOUTHWEST THIS
AFTERNOON INTO THIS EVENING AS A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM DEEPENS
OVER NORTHERN LAKE MICHIGAN (29.5 INCHES). SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE LAKE
THROUGHOUT TODAY. A COUPLE OF STRONGER CELLS THIS AFTERNOON
WILL PRODUCE HAIL UP TO THE SIZE OF ONE INCH.
A WEAK SURFACE RIDGE WILL CROSS THE LAKE TONIGHT, WITH WESTERLY
WINDS SUBSIDING. A STRONGER LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM (29.2 INCHES)
WILL THEN TRACK EASTWARD FROM AROUND SOUTH DAKOTA, CROSSING LAKE
MICHIGAN WEDNESDAY EVENING. AHEAD OF THE LOW, EXPECT GUSTY
SOUTHEAST WINDS WEDNESDAY MORNING AND AFTERNOON (PARTICULARLY OVER
THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE LAKE) WITH INCREASING CHANCES FOR
THUNDERSTORMS, SOME OF WHICH COULD BE STRONG (PARTICULARLY OVER
FAR SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE LAKE). BREEZY WEST TO NORTHWEST WINDS
ARE EXPECTED WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY AS THE LOW EXITS EAST.
GAGAN
MKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
WI...NONE.
LM...NONE.
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