095
FXUS63 KMKX 171140
AFDMKX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MILWAUKEE/SULLIVAN WI
640 AM CDT FRI JUL 17 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- WARM AND HUMID CONDITIONS CONTINUE INTO SATURDAY WITH HEAT
INDICES IN THE 90S.
- WILDFIRE SMOKE FROM ACROSS NORTHERN MN AND NORTHWESTERN
ONTARIO WILL CONTINUE THIS MORNING CONTRIBUTING TO VERY
UNHEALTHY/HAZARDOUS AIR QUALITY. THE AIR QUALITY ADVISORY
REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL NOON WHEN SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS HELP
IMPROVE CONDITIONS BRIEFLY. SMOKE EXPECTED TO RETURN THIS
WEEKEND.
- INCREASED SHOWER AND STORM CHANCES (10-30%) THIS
AFTERNOON/EVENING AND SATURDAY WITH BETTER CHANCES (20-60%)
MONDAY.
UPDATE
ISSUED 640 AM CDT FRI JUL 17 2026
HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS MID MICHIGAN AND SOUTHERN ONTARIO MOVE EAST
TODAY TOWARD THE NEW ENGLAND STATES WHILE FRONTAL BOUNDARY
ACROSSTHE NORTHERN MISSISSIPPI VALLEY MOVES NORTHEAST. AS THIS
FRONT MOVES ACROSS WISCONSIN, WINDS WILL SHIFT TO
SOUTHWESTERLY, MOISTURE ADVECTION WILL RESUME AND SMOKE SHOULD
SLOWLY START TO MOVE NORTHEAST OUT OF THE AREA. BETTER AIR
QUALITY WILL RETURN TO THE STATE WHILE THE SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS
REMAIN.
AN ISOLATED TO SHOWER OR STORM WILL BE POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON
INTO EARLY TONIGHT. DIURNAL HEATING, MOISTURE RETURN, A SFC
BOUNDARY AND MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE IN THE AREA SHOULD PROVIDE
ENOUGH LIFT TO GET SOME RAIN. MAYBE A RUMBLE OF THUNDER OR TWO.
EFFECTIVE SHEAR WILL BE NON EXISTENT AND MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES
ARE NOT GOOD FOR SUSTAINED STORMS. IF THERE IS AN OUTFLOW
BOUNDARY FROM A STORM IT COULD PRODUCE A FEW MORE, BUT EXPECTING
THIS TO BE SPORADIC POP UP SHOWERS AND STORMS THAT ARE SHORT
LIVED. NO MAJOR CHANGES TO THE FORECAST. THE AIR QUALITY
ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL NOON.
PATTERSON
SHORT TERM
ISSUED 1208 AM CDT FRI JUL 17 2026
TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY:
PERSISTENT EASTERLY LOW LEVEL FLOW TONIGHT WILL KEEP THE SMOKE
IN PLACE INTO EARLY FRIDAY MORNING. THE LATEST HRRR NEAR SURFACE
SMOKE SUGGESTS THE CONCENTRATION OF SMOKE MAY EVEN INCREASE A
BIT OVERNIGHT. BY MID-MORNING TOMORROW, WINDS WILL BECOME
SOUTHWESTERLY, WHICH SHOULD BEGIN TO PUSH THE NEAR SURFACE SMOKE
OUT OF THE AREA. BY EARLY AFTERNOON, THE HRRR SHOWS THE SMOKE
LARGELY CLEAR OF SOUTHERN WISCONSIN, EXCEPT NEAR THE LAKE, AS A
WINDS MAY BE ALONG SHORE OR ONSHORE DURING THE AFTERNOON. THERE
IS UNCERTAINTY WITH WHETHER OR NOT A LAKE BREEZE WILL MOVE
ONSHORE DURING THE AFTERNOON.
AN ISOLATED SHOWER OR TWO WILL CONTINUE EARLY TONIGHT, WITH
MAINLY DRY WEATHER THEN EXPECTED THE REST OF THE NIGHT INTO
FRIDAY MORNING. DEWPOINTS WILL INCREASE TOMORROW AS SOUTHWEST
WINDS PREVAIL, WITH A BIT MORE HEATING AND INSTABILITY TO TO THE
DECREASE IN SMOKE. AS A WEAK SHORTWAVE MOVES THROUGH, ISOLATED
SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE IN THE AFTERNOON AND
EVENING HOURS. IT WILL BE ANOTHER WARM DAY WITH HIGH TEMPS
AROUND 90 AND HEAT INDICES INTO AT LEAST THE MID-90S.
DDV
LONG TERM
ISSUED 1208 AM CDT FRI JUL 17 2026
SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY:
A COLD FRONT WILL DROP THROUGH DURING THE DAY SATURDAY AND MAY
BRING SCATTERED STORMS TO SOUTHERN WISCONSIN. LATEST MODEL
TRENDS KEEP THE HIGHER PRECIP CHANCES SOUTH AND EAST, THOUGH. IT
WILL BE WARM AND HUMID AGAIN SATURDAY. WITH COOLER AND DRIER
CONDITIONS NOT EXPECTED TO ARRIVE UNTIL AT LEAST THE EVENING
HOURS. THE 00Z HRRR IS SHOWING THAT SMOKE MAY RETURN BEHIND THE
COLD FRONT LATER SAT INTO SUNDAY AS NORTHERLY WINDS DEVELOP. DRY
WEATHER AND NEAR NORMAL TEMPS ARE THEN EXPECTED SUNDAY UNDER
HIGH PRESSURE.
ANOTHER LOW AND FRONT WILL BRING STORM CHANCES ON MONDAY ALONG
WITH BRIEFLY WARMER AND MORE HUMID CONDITIONS AHEAD OF THE
FRONT. HIGH PRESSURE WILL FOLLOW THIS SYSTEM, WITH NEAR NORMAL
TEMPS AND DRY WEATHER LIKELY FOR TUE THROUGH THU.
DDV
AVIATION
ISSUED 640 AM CDT FRI JUL 17 2026
IFR CONDITIONS THIS MORNING SHOULD GRADUALLY START TO IMPROVE BY
LATE MORNING AND EARLY AFTERNOON. AS WINDS TURN TO SOUTHWESTERLY
WITH THE PASSAGE OF A FRONT, THE SMOKE ACROSS THE STATE WILL
START TO RETREAT TO THE NORTHEAST. THIS WILL IMPROVE THE LOW
VISIBILITIES AND CEILINGS ACROSS THE STATE, BRINING A BRIEF
PERIOD OF VFR CONDITIONS. THERE WILL BE A CHANCE (10-30%) FOR
AN ISOLATED SHOWERS AND STORMS THIS AFTERNOON. LET MENTION OF
RAIN/STORMS OUT OF THE TAFS AS COVERAGE IS VERY SPORADIC OVER A
LARGE TIME FRAME, SO NO GUARANTEE IF ANY STORM WILL DEVELOP
WITHIN A TERMINAL. MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES ARE EXPECTED TONIGHT.
ADDITIONAL CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS SATURDAY AS A COLD
FRONT PASSES. SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL TURN TO NORTHWESTERLY BEHIND
THE FRONT AND SMOKE IS EXPECTED TO MOVE BACK INTO WISCONSIN.
VISIBILITIES AND CEILINGS SHOULD FALL BACK TO MVFR TO IFR CONDITIONS
AS THE SMOKE RETURNS.
PATTERSON
MARINE
ISSUED 1208 AM CDT FRI JUL 17 2026
WILDFIRE SMOKE FROM NORTHERN MN AND NORTHWESTERN ONTARIO
CONTINUES ACROSS ALL OPEN WATERS OF LAKE MICHIGAN AND WILL
REDUCE VISIBILITY TO 1 NM OR LESS AT TIMES. THUS A MARINE DENSE
SMOKE ADVISORY CONTINUES TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY FOR ALL OPEN
WATERS.
LIGHTER WINDS CONTINUE TONIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE AROUND 30.1
INCHES GRADUALLY EXITS THE REGION AHEAD OF AN INCOMING LOW
PRESSURE AROUND 29.7 INCHES TRACKING IN FROM THE NORTHERN
PLAINS. THIS LOW PRESSURE WILL SHIFT WINDS ACROSS LAKE MICHIGAN
TO THE SOUTHWEST ON FRIDAY AND CONTINUE TO PUSH ACROSS ONTARIO
LATER FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY DRAGGING A COLD FRONT ACROSS THE
LAKE THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING. NORTHERLY WINDS WILL DEVELOP
BEHIND THIS FRONTAL PASSAGE THROUGH THE DAY SATURDAY ALONG WITH
HIGH PRESSURE AROUND 30.0 INCHES. THE HIGH WILL THEN WORK ITS
WAY ACROSS THE UPPER GREAT THROUGH THE DAY SUNDAY AND DEPARTING
TO THE EAST OVERNIGHT SUNDAY WHILE ANOTHER DEEPENING LOW TRACKS
ACROSS ONTARIO FOR THE START OF NEXT WEEK. EXPECT MORE SOUTHERLY
WIND FOR MONDAY BEFORE ANOTHER, STRONGER COLD FRONT PUSHES
THROUGH THE REGION BY TUESDAY.
ADDITIONALLY WILL SEE PERIODIC SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES
ACROSS THE LAKE HEADING INTO THE WEEKEND THROUGH THE START OF NEXT
WEEK.
DDV
MKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
WI...NONE.
LM...NONE.
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