014
FXUS63 KMKX 190027
AFDMKX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MILWAUKEE/SULLIVAN WI
727 PM CDT SUN OCT 18 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- SOUTHWEST GALES ARE FORECAST THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH TONIGHT
OVER THE NORTHERN HALF OF LAKE MICHIGAN A GALE WARNING IS IN
EFFECT AND A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT NORTH OF PORT
WASHINGTON INTO TONIGHT.
- DRY WITH A GRADUAL WARMING TREND THROUGH NEXT WEEKEND.
UPDATE
ISSUED 725 PM CDT SUN OCT 18 2026
NO MAJOR CHANGES TO THE GOING FORECAST THIS EVENING AS WE REMAIN
ON THE NORTHWESTERN EDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER THE
NORTHEASTERN US AND OHIO RIVER VALLEY.
CMILLER
SHORT TERM
ISSUED 156 PM CDT SUN OCT 18 2026
TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT:
HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES REGION WILL CONTINUE
TO MOVE INTO THE NEW ENGLAND STATES TODAY WHILE A LOW PRESSURE
NEAR HUDSON BAY MOVES INTO QUEBEC. BETWEEN THESE TWO SYSTEMS
THE TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT IS LEADING TO SOME BREEZY BUT DRY
CONDITIONS FOR SOUTHERN WISCONSIN. THE HIGH PRESSURE HEADED TO
TO THE NEW ENGLAND STATES WILL STALL OUT LATER TODAY AS ANOTHER
HIGH PRESSURE IN THE NORTHERN PLAINS MOVES EAST. THE LOW TO OUR
NORTH WILL CONTINUE ON ITS TRACK NORTHEAST, WHICH WILL SHIFT THE
TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT OUT OF THE STATE. ALL THIS TO SAY, DRY
WEATHER AND LIGHT WINDS ARE EXPECTED TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY.
HEADING INTO MONDAY NIGHT WITH LIGHT WINDS AND CLEAR SKIES THERE
IS A SMALL CHANCE FOR SOME FOG TO DEVELOP IN LOW LYING AREAS
LIKE RIVER VALLEYS AND MARSHES.
PATTERSON
LONG TERM
ISSUED 156 PM CDT SUN OCT 18 2026
TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY:
THROUGH THE REST OF THE WORK WEEK HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE CENTRAL
AND EASTERN CONUS WILL BE NEAR STAGNANT. ITS GLACIAL PACE
EASTWARD WILL KEEP CONDITIONS DRY AND LIGHT SOUTHERLY TO LIGHT
AND VARIABLE THROUGH THE WEEK. WITH THE SUSTAINED SOUTHERLY
WINDS, TEMPERATURES WILL WARM A BIT WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 60S
TO LOW 70S AND OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE MID 40S TO LOW 50S. A LAKE
BREEZE IS EXPECTED TO MOVE INLAND MOST DAYS.
LOOKING AHEAD TO THE WEEKEND IS WHERE THERE LOOKS TO BE A
POTENTIAL BREAK IN THE CONSTANT HIGH PRESSURE AND DRY WEATHER. A
LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO MOVE FROM THE NORTHERN
ROCKIES INTO SASKATCHEWAN AND ONTARIO. SOUTHERLY WINDS AND
CLOUD COVER SHOULD INCREASE ACROSS THE STATE AHEAD OF THIS LOW
PRESSURE SATURDAY. CONFIDENCE ON THE TIMING, STRENGTH AND
PLACEMENT OF THE LOW IS STILL LOW. THERE IS A LOT OF
DISAGREEMENT AMONG MODELS AND THIS WOULD IMPACT WHETHER OR NOT A
FRONTAL BOUNDARY MOVES DOWN WISCONSIN AS THE LOW PRESSURE
PASSES TO OUR NORTH. EVEN IF THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY MOVES THROUGH
OVER THE WEEKEND, THERE IS A QUESTION ON IF THERE WILL EVEN BE
ENOUGH MOISTURE TO GET RAIN. WITH A LOT STILL UP IN THE AIR POPS
ARE VERY LOW DURING THIS TIME AROUND 5-15%.
PATTERSON
AVIATION
ISSUED 725 PM CDT SUN OCT 18 2026
VFR CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN IN PLACE THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD AS
HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO EXERT ITS INFLUENCE OVER SOUTHERN WI.
BREEZY SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO EASE OVERNIGHT, AND
REMAIN LIGHT INTO TOMORROW.
CMILLER
MARINE
ISSUED 156 PM CDT SUN OCT 18 2026
STRONG HIGH PRESSURE AROUND 30.6 INCHES WILL SLOWLY MOVE EAST
THROUGH THE NORTHEAST US TODAY. STRONG LOW PRESSURE AROUND 29.2
INCHES WILL MOVE EASTWARD INTO HUDSON BAY TODAY WHILE DEEPENING
TO AROUND 29.0 INCHES. SOUTHWEST GALES ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE
NORTHERN HALF OF LAKE MICHIGAN NOW INTO TONIGHT. A GALE WARNING
IS IN EFFECT DURING THIS PERIOD. THERE IS ALSO A SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY FOR AREA NORTH OF OF PORT WASHINGTON THROUGH TONIGHT
DUE TO THE ELEVATED WAVES AND BREEZY WINDS. THE SOUTHWEST GALES
WILL DIMINISH TONIGHT AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING HIGH PRESSURE
AROUND 30.5 INCHES. LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS WILL DEVELOP ACROSS
LAKE MICHIGAN MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY AFTERNOON.
PATTERSON
MKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
WI...NONE.
LM...GALE WARNING...LMZ261-LMZ362-LMZ364-LMZ563 UNTIL 1 AM MONDAY.
GALE WARNING...LMZ366-LMZ565-LMZ567-LMZ868 UNTIL 10 PM SUNDAY.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY...LMZ643 UNTIL 10 PM SUNDAY.
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