791
FXUS63 KMKX 300026
AFDMKX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MILWAUKEE/SULLIVAN WI
726 PM CDT TUE SEP 29 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- ROUNDS OF MODERATE RAIN WILL SPREAD INTO SOUTHERN WISCONSIN
TONIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING, WITH ROUNDS OF MODERATE TO
HEAVY RAIN AT TIMES WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY. A FEW
RUMBLES OF THUNDER MAY OCCUR AS WELL. THE HEAVIEST RAINFALL
SHOULD OCCUR TOWARD THE ILLINOIS BORDER. RISES IN RIVERS AND
PONDING OF WATER IN LOW LYING AREAS ARE EXPECTED.
- TEMPERATURES WILL COOL TO NEAR OR SLIGHTLY BELOW SEASONAL
NORMAL VALUES WITH THE RAIN, AND REMAIN COOL THIS WEEKEND INTO
EARLY NEXT WEEK.
- HIGH SWIM RISK CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED FOR THE LAKE MICHIGAN
BEACHES IN SHEBOYGAN COUNTY FROM MIDDLE MORNING TO MIDDLE
EVENING WEDNESDAY. STAY OUT OF THE WATER DURING THIS PERIOD
AND AWAY FROM DANGEROUS AREAS LIKE PIERS AND BREAKWALLS.
UPDATE
ISSUED 726 PM CDT TUE SEP 29 2026
THE FIRST OF THE RAIN HAS STARTED TO MOVE INTO SOUTHERN
WISCONSIN THIS EVENING. THE RAIN IS DEVELOPING WITHIN MID LEVEL
WAA. AS THE WAA CONTINUES THROUGHOUT THE EVENING AND INTO
TONIGHT, DEWPOINTS WILL RISE FROM WEST TO EAST. UNTIL DEWPOINTS
COME UP A BIT MORE IN THE EAST, ITS LIKELY THAT ANY RAIN THAT
MOVES IN WILL BE PRIMARILY VIRGA. ALL OF SOUTHERN WISCONSIN IS
EXPECTED TO SEE RAIN TONIGHT. THIS IS JUST A MATTER OF WHEN THE
RAIN STARTS WHICH WILL BE SOONER RATHER THAN LATER FOR AREAS
WEST OF MADISON (ASSUMING IT HASN'T STARTED ALREADY WHICH BASED
ON ASOS AND AWOS IT HAS FOR A FEW AREAS). OTHERWISE NO MAJOR
CHANGES HERE FOR THE FORECAST.
PATTERSON
SHORT TERM
ISSUED 228 PM CDT TUE SEP 29 2026
TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT:
MODELS ARE GENERALLY IN AGREEMENT WITH BRINGING ROUNDS OF
MODERATE RAINFALL ACROSS THE AREA MAINLY LATER TONIGHT INTO
THURSDAY NIGHT. THERE SHOULD BE ONE ROUND THAT MOVES INTO THE
AREA THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT, PUSHING EAST/NORTHEAST OF THE
AREA WEDNESDAY MORNING. THIS IS AIDED BY THE SOUTHWESTERLY LOW
LEVEL JET TRANSPORTING LARGE AMOUNTS OF MOISTURE INTO THE AREA,
WITH PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES RISING TO 1.80 TO 2.00 INCHES.
MODEST WARM AIR ADVECTION WILL HELP AS WELL, WITH SOME
DIFFERENTIAL CVA. FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW A DEEP MOIST ADIABATIC
PROFILE DURING THIS PERIOD, WHICH SHOULD HELP BRING THE
MODERATE TO HEAVY RAINFALL AT TIMES. NOT EXPECTING MUCH IN THE
WAY OF ORGANIZED CONVECTION, THOUGH SOME ISOLATED STORMS MAY
OCCUR. THIS SHOULD LIMIT IMPACTS WITH THIS FIRST ROUND.
THERE MAY BE A BREAK IN THIS ACTIVITY LATER WEDNESDAY MORNING
INTO THE AFTERNOON, BEFORE THE NEXT ROUND MOVES BACK INTO THE
AREA WEDNESDAY EVENING. THIS ROUND WILL AGAIN BE HELPED ALONG BY
THE SOUTHWESTERLY LOW LEVEL JET REORIENTING ITSELF OVER THE
AREA. THERE WILL BE THE 850 MB TROUGH AXIS MOVING THROUGH
THURSDAY INTO THURSDAY EVENING AS WELL, WITH SOME
FRONTOGENESIS RESPONSE FROM THE SURFACE TROUGH THAT STALLS OVER
THE AREA. PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES WILL REMAIN HIGH, WITH THE
MOIST ADIABATIC FORECAST SOUNDING PROFILES LINGERING. ISOLATED
STORMS MAY OCCUR WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY.
WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY SHOULD BE THE BETTER PERIOD FOR
MODERATE TO HEAVY RAINFALL, GIVEN THE ABOVE FACTORS. IT APPEARS
THAT THE HEAVIEST AMOUNTS SHOULD OCCUR TOWARD THE ILLINOIS
BORDER AREAS. AMOUNTS UP TO AN INCH MAY OCCUR FAR NORTH, WITH 2
TO 3 INCHES IN THE FAR SOUTH. MAY SEE ISOLATED 4 INCH AMOUNTS
NEAR THE ILLINOIS BORDER. THESE AMOUNTS MAY WAFFLE SOUTH OR
NORTH A BIT IN LATER FORECASTS, AS THERE IS SOME UNCERTAINTY
WITH WHERE THE HIGHEST AMOUNTS MAY OCCUR. THE RAIN SHOULD PUSH
SOUTHEAST OF THE AREA THURSDAY NIGHT, AS NORTH WINDS START TO
PUSH DRIER AIR INTO THE AREA.
TEMPERATURES WILL COOL TO NEAR OR SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL VALUES
WITH THE RAIN WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY NIGHT. HIGHS SHOULD
GENERALLY BE IN THE UPPER 60S TO AROUND 70 WEDNESDAY AND UPPER
60S THURSDAY.
A HIGH SWIM RISK IS EXPECTED FOR THE LAKE MICHIGAN BEACHES IN
SHEBOYGAN COUNTY FROM MIDDLE MORNING TO MIDDLE EVENING
WEDNESDAY. SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL INCREASE DURING THIS
TIME AND BRING BUILDING WAVES OF 3 TO 5 FEET. STAY OUT OF THE
WATER, AND AWAY FROM DANGEROUS AREAS LIKE PIERS AND BREAKWALLS.
WOOD
LONG TERM
ISSUED 228 PM CDT TUE SEP 29 2026
FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY:
ENSEMBLES AND EXTENDED MODELS ARE GENERALLY SHOWING HIGH
PRESSURE MOVING EAST ACROSS THE AREA FRIDAY INTO FRIDAY NIGHT,
THEN TO THE EAST ON SATURDAY. THIS SHOULD BRING A PERIOD OF DRY
CONDITIONS WITH COOLER TEMPERATURES. LOWS FRIDAY NIGHT MAY DROP
INTO THE UPPER 30S INLAND, SO PATCHY FROST MAY BE POSSIBLE
THERE.
LOW PRESSURE SHOULD THEN SHIFT EAST SOUTHEAST THROUGH OR NORTH
OF THE GREAT LAKES REGION SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY MORNING,
WITH A COLD FRONT MOVING THROUGH THE AREA. MOISTURE IS LACKING
WITH THIS FEATURE, SO IT MAY END UP BEING A DRY FRONTAL PASSAGE.
AS A 500 MB TROUGH DEVELOPS TO THE NORTHEAST OF THE REGION LATER
THIS WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK, HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE
SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE AREA. THIS SHOULD BRING MORE DRY
CONDITIONS, WITH COOL TEMPERATURES LINGERING. AGAIN, LOWS MAY
DIP INTO THE UPPER 30S INLAND AT TIMES WITH PERHAPS PATCHY
FROST.
WOOD
AVIATION
ISSUED 726 PM CDT TUE SEP 29 2026
VFR CONDITIONS THIS EVENING ARE EXPECTED TO FALL TO MVFR TO IFR
CONDITIONS TONIGHT. RAIN IS SLOWLY MOVING IN FROM THE WEST THIS
EVENING AND SHOULD CONTINUE THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS INTO
WEDNESDAY MORNING. A LULL IN THE RAIN IS POSSIBLE WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON WITH ADDITIONAL RAIN EXPECTED WEDNESDAY EVENING INTO
THURSDAY. CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES ARE EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY
DROP TO AROUND 500-800 FEET TONIGHT. CEILING SHOULD REMAIN AT
THIS LEVEL THROUGH THE REST OF THE PERIOD. VISIBILITIES ARE
EXPECTED TO BE AROUND 1-4 SM DURING THE RAIN TONIGHT AND AGAIN
WEDNESDAY NIGHT.
SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST WINDS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD. WINDS
ARE EXPECTED TO BE BREEZY AT TIMES WITH GUSTS OF 15-20 KTS
(17-23 MPH). AS A LOW LEVEL JET MOVES INTO TONIGHT, LLWS WILL BE
POSSIBLE TONIGHT INTO EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING. LLWS IS EXPECTED
TO BE OUT OF THE SOUTHWEST AROUND 40 KTS AT 2KFT. ITS MARGINAL
AND THE SCOPE WILL BE A BIT LIMITED AT TIMES WITH THE
OCCASIONALLY BREEZY WINDS NEAR THE SFC.
PATTERSON
MARINE
ISSUED 228 PM CDT TUE SEP 29 2026
SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL INCREASE TONIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY, BECOMING
SOUTHWEST WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY, AS A COLD FRONT
APPROACHES FROM THE NORTHERN PLAINS. WIND GUSTS TO 30 KNOTS
ARE POSSIBLE WEDNESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY EVENING, ALONG WITH
BUILDING WAVES, PARTICULARLY ACROSS CENTRAL AND NORTHERN
PORTIONS OF THE LAKE.
EXPECT NORTHWEST WINDS IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT THURSDAY
AFTERNOON, WITH NORTH TO NORTHEAST WINDS THURSDAY NIGHT INTO
FRIDAY. STRONG HIGH PRESSURE AROUND 30.4 INCHES WILL OVERSPREAD
THE GREAT LAKES FRIDAY NIGHT. A FAST-MOVING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
AROUND 29.8 INCHES SHOULD MOVE ACROSS OR NORTH OF LAKE SUPERIOR
SATURDAY NIGHT, WITH HIGH PRESSURE AROUND 30.4 INCHES MOVING
SOUTHEAST INTO THE REGION BY EARLY NEXT WEEK. NORTHWEST TO NORTH
WINDS SHOULD RESULT ACROSS LAKE MICHIGAN.
A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT FROM MIDDLE MORNING TO
MIDDLE EVENING WEDNESDAY FOR INCREASING SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST WINDS
OF 15 TO 25 KNOTS AND BUILDING WAVES OF 3 TO 5 FEET. WINDS MAY
APPROACH SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY LEVELS SOUTH OF THERE DURING THIS
PERIOD.
WAVES MAY REACH SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY LEVELS FRIDAY INTO
SATURDAY, MAINLY SOUTH OF PORT WASHINGTON, AS NORTH TO NORTHEAST
WINDS DEVELOP.
WOOD
MKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
WI...BEACH HAZARDS STATEMENT...WIZ052...10 AM WEDNESDAY TO 10 PM
WEDNESDAY.
LM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY...LMZ643...10 AM WEDNESDAY TO 10 PM
WEDNESDAY.
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