291
FXUS63 KMKX 240438
AFDMKX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MILWAUKEE/SULLIVAN WI
1138 PM CDT SAT MAR 23 2019
UPDATE
MIDDLE TO HIGH CLOUDS WILL CONTINUE TO OVERSPREAD SRN
WI FOR THE EARLY MORNING HOURS OF SUNDAY. LIGHT RAIN IS STILL
LIKELY TOWARD SUNRISE OVER FAR SRN WI WITH MUCH LESSER CHANCES
FROM MADISON TO MILWAUKEE AND NWD. A VORTICITY MAXIMUM, ROTATING
AROUND THE UPPER LOW OVER THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS, WILL DE-AMPLIFY
AND TURN EWD ACROSS NRN IL AND LOWER MI ON SUNDAY. THE NOSE OF A
LLJ AND ASSOCIATED FRONTOGENESIS SHOULD STAY FAR SOUTH DURING THIS
TIME. THUS, HAVE LIMITED LIKELY POPS TO FAR SRN WI WHERE SPORADIC
LIGHT RAIN IS EXPECTED THROUGH THE DAY. THE MAIN UPPER LOW WILL
ALSO REMAIN SOUTH AS A LARGER SCALE UPPER TROUGH MOVES ESEWD
ACROSS SE CANADA AND THE GREAT LAKES. IT'S COLD FRONT WILL
ACCELERATE SSWWD FROM LAKE MI AND SWEEP ACROSS SRN WI DURING THE
EARLY TO MIDDLE AFTERNOON. GUSTY WINDS ESPECIALLY OVER THE LAKE
COUNTIES ARE EXPECTED ALONG WITH TEMPS DROPPING FROM AROUND 50F
INTO THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 30S.
AVIATION(06Z TAFS)
VFR CONDITIONS FOR THE EARLY MORNING HOURS
OF SUNDAY, BUT LIGHT RAIN WITH CIGS OF 1-3 KFT AND MVFR VSBYS
WILL BECOME LIKELY TOWARD SUNRISE NEAR THE IL BORDER. MOST OF THE
LIGHT RAIN WILL REMAIN IN THE COUNTIES BORDERING IL FOR SUNDAY
WITH MUCH LESSER CHANCES TO THE NORTH. CIGS OF 1-3 KFT WILL STILL
OVERSPREAD MUCH OF SRN WI FOR THE AFTERNOON ESPECIALLY AFTER A
STRONG COLD FRONT ACCELERATES SSWWD FROM LAKE MI ACROSS SRN WI FOR
THE EARLY TO MIDDLE AFTERNOON HOURS. NELY WIND GUSTS OF 20-30 KTS
IS FORECAST DURING AND AFTER THE FRONTAL PASSAGE WITH THE
STRONGEST WINDS OVER THE LAKE COUNTIES. SKIES WILL THEN CLEAR FROM
NORTH TO SOUTH DURING THE EVENING HOURS WITH BRISK NELY WINDS
CONTINUING.
PREV DISCUSSION
(ISSUED 918 PM CDT SAT MAR 23 2019)
UPDATE...THE FORECAST IS ON TRACK FOR TONIGHT AND SUNDAY.
MARINE...A STRONG CANADIAN COLD FRONT WILL SWEEP FROM NORTH TO
SOUTH ACROSS LAKE MI ON SUNDAY. AN ABRUPT WIND SHIFT TO BRISK
NORTHERLY WINDS IS EXPECTED OVER THE NORTH HALF OF THE LAKE FROM
JUST AFTER SUNRISE AND THROUGH THE MORNING. THE COLD FRONT WILL
THEN SWEEP ACROSS THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE LAKE THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON. GUSTY NORTH WINDS OF 20 TO 30 KNOTS WILL OCCUR WITH THE
ABRUPT WIND SHIFT AND CONTINUE WINDY AFTERWARD WITH GALES
EXPECTED BY LATE AFTERNOON. A GALE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FROM 5 PM
CDT SUNDAY UNTIL 7 AM CDT MONDAY FOR THE SOUTHERN TWO THIRDS OF
LAKE MI. HIGH WAVES WILL QUICKLY BUILD SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND
CONTINUE WELL INTO MONDAY.
PREV DISCUSSION... (ISSUED 711 PM CDT SAT MAR 23 2019)
UPDATE...MIDDLE TO HIGH CLOUDS WILL OVERSPREAD SRN WI TNT. LIGHT
RAIN IS STILL LIKELY TOWARD SUNRISE OVER FAR SRN WI WITH MUCH
LESSER CHANCES FROM MADISON TO MILWAUKEE AND NWD. A VORTICITY
MAXIMUM, ROTATING AROUND THE UPPER LOW OVER THE CENTRAL HIGH
PLAINS, WILL DE-AMPLIFY AND TURN EWD ACROSS NRN IL AND LOWER MI
ON SUNDAY. THE NOSE OF A LLJ AND ASSOCIATED FRONTOGENESIS SHOULD
STAY FAR SOUTH DURING THIS TIME. THUS, HAVE LIMITED LIKELY POPS TO
FAR SRN WI WHERE SPORADIC LIGHT RAIN IS EXPECTED THROUGH THE DAY.
THE MAIN UPPER LOW WILL ALSO REMAIN SOUTH AS A LARGER SCALE UPPER
TROUGH MOVES ESEWD ACROSS SE CANADA AND THE GREAT LAKES. IT'S COLD
FRONT WILL ACCELERATE SSWWD FROM LAKE MI AND SWEEP ACROSS SRN WI
DURING THE EARLY TO MIDDLE AFTERNOON. GUSTY WINDS ESPECIALLY OVER
THE LAKE COUNTIES ARE EXPECTED ALONG WITH TEMPS DROPPING FROM
AROUND 50F INTO THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 30S.
AVIATION(00Z TAFS)...VFR CONDITIONS FOR MUCH OF TNT, BUT LIGHT
RAIN WITH CIGS OF 1-3 KFT AND MVFR VSBYS WILL BECOME LIKELY
TOWARD SUNRISE NEAR THE IL BORDER. MOST OF THE LIGHT RAIN WILL
REMAIN IN THE COUNTIES BORDERING IL FOR SUNDAY WITH MUCH LESSER
CHANCES TO THE NORTH. CIGS OF 1-3 KFT WILL STILL OVERSPREAD MUCH
OF SRN WI INTO THE AFTERNOON ESPECIALLY AFTER A STRONG COLD FRONT
ACCELERATES SSWWD FROM LAKE MI ACROSS SRN WI FOR THE EARLY TO
MIDDLE AFTERNOON HOURS. NELY WIND GUSTS OF 20-30 KTS IS FORECAST
DURING AND AFTER THE FRONTAL PASSAGE WITH THE STRONGEST WINDS OVER
THE LAKE COUNTIES. SKIES WILL THEN CLEAR FROM NORTH TO SOUTH
DURING THE EVENING HOURS WITH BRISK NELY WINDS CONTINUING.
PREV DISCUSSION... (ISSUED 315 PM CDT SAT MAR 23 2019)
SHORT TERM...
CLOUDS WILL BEGIN TO INCREASE OVERNIGHT AS A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
OVER THE KANSAS/NEBRASKA BORDER SHIFTS EAST. RAIN CHANCES WILL
MOVE INTO SOUTHWESTERN PORTIONS OF OUR CWA AFTER 3 AM AND SHIFT
EAST. ACTIVITY WILL CONTINUE OFF AND ON THROUGHOUT THE DAY BEFORE
ENDING DURING THE EARLY EVENING. ACTIVITY WILL BE MAINLY ALONG AND
SOUTH OF I-94 WITH BEST CHANCES ALONG THE WISCONSIN/ILLINOIS
BORDER.
THE MAIN FORCING WITH THIS SYSTEM IS 500 MB VORTICITY ADVECTION
OVER THE AREA. THERE IS NOT MUCH IN THE WAY OF LIFT IN THE LOWER
LEVELS OR WITH THE UPPER LEVEL JET. WITH THAT BEING SAID THERE ARE
A FEW UNCERTAINTIES WITH HOW FAR NORTH PRECIPITATION WILL GET.
THERE IS DRY AIR IN PLACE WHICH WILL DELAY THE INCOMING MOISTURE.
ANOTHER FACTOR TO CONSIDER IS THE FRONT MOVING THROUGH LATE
SUNDAY AFTERNOON INTO THE EARLY EVENING. THIS FRONT WILL BE
BRINGING IN DRY AIR AND COLDER TEMPERATURES. THIS MAY RESULT IN A
LIGHT WINTRY MIX BEFORE PRECIPITATION CLEARS THE AREA, OR MAY END
PRECIPITATION SOONER IF IT HAS MORE MOMENTUM THAN IS CURRENTLY
EXPECTED.
LONG TERM...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE AREA FOR MONDAY AND TUESDAY,
WITH CLEAR SKIES AND COOL TEMPERATURES EXPECTED. HIGHS MONDAY LOOK
TO BE IN THE LOW 40S (UPPER 30S NEAR THE LAKE), WITH MID 40S
EXPECTED ON TUESDAY. CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS WILL ALLOW
OVERNIGHT LOWS TO FALL INTO THE LOW 20S.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL PUSH EAST INTO NEW ENGLAND BY WEDNESDAY
MORNING, WITH GUSTY SOUTHERLY FLOW DEVELOPING ACROSS THE AREA.
THIS WILL HELP BOOST TEMPERATURES INTO THE LOW TO MID 50S FOR
WEDNESDAY.
CONTINUED STRONG SOUTHERLY FLOW AND WARM ADVECTION WILL HELP BOOST
TEMPS TO AROUND 60 BY THURSDAY. SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS
WILL BE ON THE INCREASE FROM LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THE DAY
ON THURSDAY.
SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES CONTINUE THURSDAY NIGHT AHEAD OF
AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT. PRECIPITATION MAY END AS A WINTRY MIX
LATER FRIDAY AS THE FRONT MOVES THROUGH AND COLDER AIR BUILDS INTO
THE REGION.
AVIATION(18Z TAFS)...
VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE NIGHT. A LAKE BREEZE
DEVELOPED THIS AFTERNOON. IT'S DELAYED, BUT STILL EXPECTED TO
IMPACT MKE FOR A FEW HOURS BEFORE SHIFTING SOUTHERLY AGAIN THIS
EVENING. CLOUDS WILL BUILD INTO THE REGION OVERNIGHT AS RAIN
MOVES INTO THE AREA SUNDAY MORNING. EXPECT CEILINGS TO GRADUALLY
DECREASE TO MVFR LATE SUNDAY MORNING.
INTERMITTENT LIGHT RAIN WILL PERSIST THROUGHOUT THE DAY MAINLY
IMPACTING AREAS ALONG AND SOUTH OF I-94. EXPECT GUSTY NORTHEAST
WINDS AND DRIER AIR TO SPREAD INTO SOUTHERN WI IN THE WAKE OF A
COLD FRONT LATE SUNDAY AFTERNOON.
MARINE...
A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL MOVE OVER CENTRAL ILLINOIS SUNDAY AND
BRING A CHANCE FOR LIGHT RAIN, OR POSSIBLY A WINTRY MIX, TO
SOUTHERN LAKE MICHIGAN DURING THE DAY. A POTENT COLD FRONT WILL
DROP SOUTH THROUGH LAKE MICHIGAN LATE SUNDAY AFTERNOON. EXPECT
NORTH-NORTHEAST GALE FORCE GUSTS IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT OVER THE
SOUTHERN TWO THIRDS THROUGH EARLY MONDAY MORNING. WE UPGRADED TO A
GALE WARNING.
QUIET CONDITIONS ARE THEN EXPECTED AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN
MONDAY AFTERNOON INTO TUESDAY. LOW PRESSURE APPROACHING FROM THE
PLAINS WILL BRING OUR NEXT CHANCE FOR GUSTY SOUTHERLY WINDS OVER
LAKE MICHIGAN WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY. GALE FORCE GUSTS ARE
POSSIBLE.
MKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
WI...NONE.
LM...GALE WARNING FROM 5 PM SUNDAY TO 7 AM CDT MONDAY FOR LMZ080-567-
643>646-669-671-673-675-777-779-868-870-872-874-876-878.
UPDATE...GEHRING
TONIGHT/SUNDAY AND AVIATION/MARINE...RAR
SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY...BOXELL
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.
Main Text Page