894
FXUS63 KMKX 242044
AFDMKX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MILWAUKEE/SULLIVAN WI
344 PM CDT THU JUL 24 2025
KEY MESSAGES
- LESSENED SCATTERED SHOWER AND STORM CHANCES BEFORE SUNSET THIS
EVENING (~30% CHANCES).
- HEAT LESS OF A CONCERN THE REST OF THIS AFTERNOON OWING TO
LINGERING MID-LEVEL CLOUD COVER. HIGHEST HEAT INDICES WILL BE
IN RACINE AND KENOSHA COUNTIES OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS.
- CHANCES FOR THUNDERSTORMS (30-50%) REMAINS IN THE FORECAST FOR
FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY. MORE CHANCES THEN RETURN MONDAY
MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY.
- HEAT AND HUMIDITY RETURNS SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY.
SHORT TERM
ISSUED 317 PM CDT THU JUL 24 2025
TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT:
MID-LEVEL CLOUD COVER ALONG AND AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT
HAS KEPT A LID ON HEAT CONCERNS THIS AFTERNOON. THE HOTTEST
CONDITIONS ARE CURRENTLY OVER RACINE AND KENOSHA COUNTIES WHERE HEAT
INDICES ARE BETWEEN 90 AND 95, AND SKIES HAVE REMAIN CLEAR TO
MOSTLY SUNNY FOR A LARGER PORTION OF THE DAY. THE COLD FRONT
WILL CONTINUE TO SINK SOUTHEAST THIS AFTERNOON, GRADUALLY
LIMITING ANY REMAINING CONCERNS FOR UNCOMFORTABLE HEAT.
A FEW SHOWERS HAVE FESTERED THIS MORNING AND INTO THE EARLY
AFTERNOON ALONG THE COLD FRONT AND NEAR A REMNANT MCV FROM EARLY
MORNING COVECTION OVER IOWA. CURRENT RAP ANALYSIS SHOWS THIS MCV
MOVING OVER CENTRAL WI AT THIS TIME, WITH RADAR SHOWING WEAK
SHOWERS AND STORMS POCKMARKING NORTH CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST
WISCONSIN BEHIND THE MCV CLOSER TO THE SURFACE FRONT. WITH
SHOWER AND STORM ACTIVITY FAVORING THE FRONT, THIS FEATURE
SHOULD BE THE FOCUS OF ANY REMAINING STORM ACTIVITY THIS
AFTERNOON AS IT SLOWLY MOVE SOUTHEAST. GIVEN VERY WEAK
CAPE/LAPSE RATES OVER MOST OF THE REGION, STRONG STORMS ARE NOT
ANTICIPATED.
TONIGHT, SUBSIDENCE WILL MOVE IN BEHIND THE COLD FRONT ALONG
WITH LIGHT WINDS. THE COLD FRONT WON'T FEATURE A PARTICULARLY
GREAT PUSH OF DRY AIR BEHIND IT, AND DEW POINTS WILL REMAIN
ELEVATED OVERNIGHT. WITH THESE INGREDIENTS, FOG IS EXPECTED TO
FORM OVER MOST OF SOUTHERN WI OVERNIGHT.
FOG SHOULD MIX OUT SHORTLY AFTER DAYBREAK. WE'LL REMAIN MOSTLY
DRY ON FRIDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE MOVES IN AS THE COLD FRONT STALLS
OVER NORTHERN IL. WHILE TEMPERATURES WILL COOL WITH HIGHS IN THE
LOW TO MID 80S, DEW POINTS WILL REMAIN ELEVATED, MAKING IT FEEL
MUGGY OUTSIDE.
CMILLER
LONG TERM
ISSUED 344 PM CDT THU JUL 24 2025
SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY:
WARM ADVECTION RETURNS FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY MORNING AS A
WARM FRONT LIFTS NORTH TOWARD THE STATE. THERE ARE VARYING
SOLUTIONS REGARDING HOW SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL EVOLVE SATURDAY
MORNING INTO SATURDAY NIGHT. THE GFS, FAVORS A MORE AGGRESSIVE
SOLUTION, GIVING RAIN TO MOST OF SOUTHERN WISCONSIN THROUGH
SATURDAY. MOST CAMS AND THE ECMWF HOWEVER, SHOW ONLY A GLANCING
BLOW OF RAIN AND STORMS ALONG THE WI/IL BORDER AND SOUTHEAST
WISCONSIN SATURDAY MORNING AND EARLY AFTERNOON. GIVEN SOME OF
THE UNCERTAINTY AND THE FRONTAL POSITION BEING DICTATED BY
SHOWER AND STORM ACTIVITY ALONG THE STALLED FRONT ON FRIDAY,
WE'LL MONITOR OBS AND MODEL TRENDS FOR A BIT BETTER AGREEMENT
SATURDAY. IN ANY CASE, A BRIEF LULL IS EXPECTED SATURDAY
EVENING/SUNDAY MORNING AS A SMALL AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE MOVES
OVERHEAD.
THE WARM FRONT FROM SATURDAY WILL FINALLY LIFT NORTH LATE SUNDAY
MORNING INTO THE AFTERNOON, USHERING IN A RETURN OF THE HOT AND
HUMID AIR MASS. HIGHS WILL BE IN THE LOW 90S, AMID DEW POINTS IN
THE LOW 70S. HEAT WILL THEN LINGER INTO MONDAY AS WELL. MONDAY
INTO WEDNESDAY, NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT AROUND THE RIDGE AND
WIGGLES IN THE FLOW WILL THEN CAUSE MULTIPLE CHANCES FOR STORMS
OVER THE UPPER MIDWEST INTO THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK, ALTHOUGH IT
IS TOO EARLY TO PINPOINT WHERE THE BEST CHANCES WILL BE.
CMILLER
AVIATION
ISSUED 317 PM CDT THU JUL 24 2025
SLIGHT CHANCES FOR SCATTERED WEAK SHOWERS AND STORMS INTO THIS
EVENING WITH CHANCES WANING AFTER SUNSET. A MIXTURE OF
CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST THIS EVENING FROM CLR TO BKN BUT WILL
REMAIN VFR. TONIGHT, FOG IS EXPECTED TO FORM OVER MOST OF
SOUTHERN WI WITH VIS POTENTIALLY AS LOW AS 1SM IN SPOTS. THIS
FOG SHOULD LINGER UNTIL A FEW HOURS AFTER SUNRISE UNTIL IT MIXES
OUT, WITH VFR RETURNING TOMORROW.
WINDS WILL REMAIN LIGHT AND NORTHWESTERLY TONIGHT, GRADUALLY
COMING AROUND TO EASTERLY FRIDAY MORNING.
CMILLER
MARINE
ISSUED 240 PM CDT THU JUL 24 2025
A COLD FRONT IN ASSOCIATION WITH WEAK LOW PRESSURE JUST NORTH
OF LAKE HURON WILL CONTINUE SOUTHEAST INTO TONIGHT BRINGING
SCATTERED THUNDERSTORM CHANCES WITH IT. WINDS WILL BECOME LIGHT
AND NORTHERLY BEHIND THE FRONT BY MIDNIGHT, AND THEN SLOWLY COME
AROUND TO NORTHEASTERLY BY DAYBREAK ON FRIDAY. WITH THE EASING
WINDS, BROAD SUBSIDENCE, AND LINGERING HIGH SURFACE DEW POINTS
BEHIND THE FRONT, SOME MARINE FOG MAY FORM TONIGHT. HIGH
PRESSURE WILL THEN BRIEFLY PASS OVER THE UPPER GREAT LAKES
THROUGH FRIDAY, WITH LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS OVER THE NORTHERN
HALF OF THE LAKE, AND NORTH WINDS OVER THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE
LAKE.
WINDS WILL COME AROUND TO SOUTHERLY FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY
MORNING AS A WARM FRONT LIFTS NORTH OVER THE SOUTHERN THIRD OF LAKE
MICHIGAN AGHEAD OF WEAK LOW PRESSURE. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
ARE EXPECTED TO PASS OVER THE LAKE THROUGH MUCH OF THE DAY AS
THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM PASSES BY. WINDS BRIEFLY COME AROUND TO
NORTHWESTERLY SUNDAY MORNING BEFORE RETURNING TO SOUTHERLY BY
THE AFTERNOON, FOLLOWING ANOTHER WARM FRONT.
CMILLER
MKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
WI...NONE.
LM...NONE.
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