767
FXUS63 KMKX 200024
AFDMKX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MILWAUKEE/SULLIVAN WI
724 PM CDT MON OCT 19 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- AREAS OF FOG LOOK POSSIBLE TONIGHT, MAINLY OVER EAST CENTRAL
AND SOUTHEAST WISCONSIN. THIS FOG MAY BECOME DENSE IN TIME
FOR THE MORNING COMMUTE.
- DRY WITH A GRADUAL WARMING TREND THROUGH NEXT WEEKEND.
UPDATE
ISSUED 709 PM CDT MON OCT 19 2026
SHORT RANGE GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO HONE IN ON THE POTENTIAL FOR
FOG OVERNIGHT, MAINLY EAST OF WHERE A LAKE BREEZE PUSHED INLAND
THIS PAST AFTERNOON. LOOKING AT RADAR OBSERVATIONS, THE LAKE
BREEZE BOUNDARY PUSHED INLAND TO ROUGHLY A LINE EXTENDING FROM
THE WESTERN BORDER OF FOND DU LAC COUNTY, SOUTH THROUGH BEAVER
DAM, AND SOUTHWARD THROUGH ELKHORN IN WALWORTH COUNTY.
PROVIDED HIGH CLOUDS CLEAR IN A TIMELY MANNER TONIGHT, THE
SUBSIDENCE OVERHEAD, COUPLED WITH LIGHT WINDS AND THE LAKE
MODIFIED AIR AT THE SURFACE, SHOULD ALLOW FOR AREAS OF FOG TO
FORM EAST OF SAID LAKE BREEZE BOUNDARY. GUIDANCE SHOWS THE
POTENTIAL FOR THIS FOG TO BECOME DENSE IN SPOTS JUST IN TIME FOR
THE MORNING COMMUTE. THE FOG MAY THEN LINGER UNTIL 9 OR 10AM
GIVEN THE LOWER SUN ANGLE AND WEAKER MIXING THIS TIME OF THE
YEAR. VISIBILITY TRENDS WILL BE MONITORED FOR EITHER AN SPS OR A
DENSE FOG ADVISORY DURING THE EARLY MORNING HOURS. CAUTIOUS
TRAVEL IS ADVISED IN ANY FOG THAT DEVELOPS.
CMILLER
SHORT TERM
ISSUED 142 PM CDT MON OCT 19 2026
TONIGHT AND TUESDAY:
THE DRY AND QUIET WEATHER CONTINUES ACROSS SOUTHERN WISCONSIN
WITH PLEASANT, IF SLIGHTLY WARMER THAN NORMAL, TEMPERATURES
THROUGH THE WEEK. HIGH PRESSURE FROM THE NORTHERN PLAINS WILL
SETTLE IN ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES REGION TODAY AND REMAIN FOR
MUCH OF THE WORK WEEK. THE RIDGING ALOFT AND SFC HIGH PRESSURE
ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN CONUS WILL KEEP WINDS LIGHT
(DIRECTION VARIABLE AT TIMES) AND SKIES MOSTLY CLEAR. DURING THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS, THE CLEAR SKIES, LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS AND
FALLING TEMPERATURES WILL PROVED A GOOD ENVIRONMENT FOR SOME
FOG DEVELOPMENT. LOW LYING AREAS, FIELDS, MARSHES, RIVER
VALLEYS ETC WILL BE THE MOST SUSCEPTIBLE FOR ANY FOG
DEVELOPMENT. FOG SHOULD BE PATCHY WITH LIMITED IMPACTS EXPECTED.
ANY FOG THAT DOES DEVELOP WILL DIMINISH SHORTLY AFTER SUNRISE.
EXPECT NEARLY IDENTICAL CONDITIONS TO TODAY AND TONIGHT FOR
TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT.
PATTERSON
LONG TERM
ISSUED 142 PM CDT MON OCT 19 2026
TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY:
THE RIDGING ALOFT WILL REMAIN IN PLACE ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND
EASTERN CONUS THROUGH THE REST OF THE WORK WEEK KEEPING CONDITIONS
DRY. AN OVERALL BENIGN AND QUIET FORECAST PERIOD. THE NEXT
CHANCES, WHILE UNCERTAIN AND WEAK, FOR RAIN IS SATURDAY
EVENING/SATURDAY NIGHT. THE RIDGING ALOFT WILL START TO TILT AND
BREAK DOWN A BIT OVER THE WEEKEND AS A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER
THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST STARTS TO MOVE EAST. THE SPLIT AMONG
GUIDANCE IS STILL FAIRLY SIGNIFICANT WHICH YOU CAN SEE IN THE
DETERMINISTIC RUNS OF THE GLOBAL MODELS WELL. THIS DOES CONTINUE
THROUGH THE ENSEMBLES AND THE CLUSTER ANALYSIS WHICH CONTINUES
TO SHOW UNCERTAINTY IN TIMING, LOCATION AND STRENGTH OF THE
LOW. THE GFS HAS THE STRONGER AND MORE PROGRESSIVE LOW, WHICH
THE EURO AND CAN KEEP THE LOW A BIT WEAKER AND HAVE IT AS A
RIDGE RIDER. THE TRACK OF THIS LOW WILL DETERMINE WHAT COMES
NEXT FOR SOUTHERN WISCONSIN. DOES THE FLOW BECOME A BIT MORE
MERIDIONAL OR DOES IT STAY ZONAL, EITHER WAY THERE DOES SEEM TO
BE A SLIGHT SHIFT INT HE PATTERN AFTER THIS SATURDAY. THIS
COULD BRING SOME MORE CHANCES FOR RAIN BACK INTO THE FORECAST AS
WE LOOK INTO NEXT WEEK.
TLDR FOR SATURDAY AT THE SFC IS THE LOCATION OF THE LOW AND HOW
STRONG THE ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT IS UNCERTAIN. AVAILABLE
MOISTURE LOOKS TO BE FAIRLY LOW AT THIS POINT WHICH MEANS THIS
COULD BE A DRY FRONTAL PASSAGE IF THERE ISN'T ANY GOOD WAA
OUT AHEAD OF THE FRONT. THERE IS STILL TOO MANY UNCERTAINTIES
TO DRAW ANY CONCRETE CONCLUSIONS SO KEPT TO THE AVERAGE AMONG
GUIDANCE (5-15% POPS WITH BETTER CHANCES AS YOU GO NORTH INTO
CENTRAL AND NORTHERN WISCONSIN). THE SLIGHTLY WARMER THAN NORMAL
TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGHOUT THE EXTENDED
WITH THE PROLONGED SOUTHERLY WINDS.
PATTERSON
AVIATION
ISSUED 723 PM CDT MON OCT 19 2026
EXPECT LINGERING HIGH CLOUDS AND VFR THIS EVENING AND INTO THE
VERY EARLY MORNING HOURS TUESDAY. SHORT RANGE GUIDANCE SUGGESTS
AREAS OF FOG WILL DEVELOP MAINLY EAST OF KMSN AFTER 09Z
TUESDAY. SOME OF THIS FOG MAY BECOME DENSE AND LINGER INTO THE
POST DAWN HOURS OF TUESDAY. FOG SHOULD THEN DISSIPATE LATE
MORNING INTO THE EARLY AFTERNOON.
WINDS WILL BE LIGHT AND VARIABLE TO LIGHT AND EASTERLY
OVERNIGHT, AND WILL BECOME SOUTHEASTERLY AFTER DAYBREAK TUESDAY.
CMILLER
MARINE
ISSUED 142 PM CDT MON OCT 19 2026
LOW PRESSURE AROUND 29.2 OVER THE HUDSON BAY WILL MOVE EAST
THROUGH NORTHERN QUEBEC TODAY AS HIGH PRESSURE OF 30.4 INCHES OVER
THE DAKOTAS MOVES INTO THE GREAT LAKES REGION. THE LIGHT WEST TO
SOUTHWEST WINDS OVER THE LAKE THIS MORNING WILL BECOME LIGHT AND
VARIABLE TONIGHT. THESE LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS WILL PERSIST
THROUGH TUESDAY AFTERNOON. HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN ACROSS THE
GREAT LAKES REGION THROUGH THE REST OF THE WEEK KEEPING WINDS
LIGHT ACROSS THE LAKE. SOUTHERLY WINDS DEVELOP TUESDAY EVENING AND
PERSIST THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT BECOMING LIGHT AND VARIABLE
THURSDAY.
PATTERSON
MKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
WI...NONE.
LM...NONE.
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