593
FXUS63 KMKX 010028
AFDMKX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MILWAUKEE/SULLIVAN WI
728 PM CDT FRI JUL 31 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- 24 HOUR RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 1 TO 2 INCHES EXPECTED ACROSS MUCH
OF SOUTHERN WI THROUGH SATURDAY. LOWEST RAINFALL TOTALS
EXPECTED NORTHEAST OF A LINE FROM MONTELLO TO MEQUON WITH
HIGHEST RAINFALL TOTALS AND POTENTIAL FOR POCKETS OF LOCALLY
HIGHER AMOUNTS EXCEEDING 3 INCHES (>40% CHANCE) FOR AREAS
SOUTH OF I-94 TOWARD THE WI/IL BORDER.
- PONDING OF LOW-LYING AREAS AND MINOR FLOODING REMAINS A
POSSIBILITY, ESPECIALLY FOR URBAN AREAS THAT SEE SEVERAL
INCHES OF RAINFALL IN SHORT PERIOD OF TIME, BUT FLASH FLOODING
IS NOT EXPECTED GIVEN THE LOWER RAINFALL RATES AND DRY
ANTECEDENT SOIL CONDITIONS.
- BREEZY ONSHORE WINDS WILL LEAD TO HIGH WAVES AND DANGEROUS
CURRENTS AT LAKE MICHIGAN BEACHES THIS WEEKEND. A BEACH
HAZARDS STATEMENT IS IN EFFECT FROM LATE TONIGHT THROUGH
SUNDAY NIGHT FOR ALL LAKE MICHIGAN BEACHES.
- NEXT CHANCES FOR THUNDERSTORMS WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY.
UPDATE
ISSUED 729 PM CDT FRI JUL 31 2026
WINDS HAVE BEEN SLOW TO INCREASE THIS EVENING ACROSS
SOUTHEASTERN WISCONSIN, BUT HAVE BECOME GUSTY AT 30 TO 35 MPH
FROM MADISON WESTWARD. GUSTY WINDS WILL GRADUALLY PROGRESS
EASTWARD OVERNIGHT AS LOW PRESSURE PROPAGATES EAST INTO EASTERN
IOWA, WITH ALL OF SOUTHERN WISCONSIN SEEING GUSTY WINDS BY
SATURDAY MORNING.
STEADY RAINFALL WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE REGION AT RATES AROUND
0.10"/HR FOR THE NEXT FEW HOURS. HEAVIER RAINFALL AND ISOLATED
EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS WILL MOVE IN LATE THIS EVENING INTO
TONIGHT. RATES UP TO 0.5"/HR ARE EXPECTED. SOME AREAS THAT DO
SEE THUNDERSTORMS, ESPECIALLY TRAINING THUNDERSTORMS, MAY SEE
RATES UP TO 1"/HR AND LOCAL FLOODING THREATS. BEST CHANCES FOR
THESE CONCERNS ARE NEAR THE WI/IL BORDER AND IN SOUTHWESTERN
WISCONSIN, BUT DUE TO THE MESOSCALE NATURE OF RAINFALL BANDS IN
THE BROADER SYNOPTIC SYSTEM, CANNOT RULE OUT A NARROW REGION OF
HEAVY RAINFALL ANYWHERE WITHIN SOUTHERN WISCONSIN TONIGHT.
MH
SHORT TERM
ISSUED 1130 AM CDT FRI JUL 31 2026
TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT:
WIDESPREAD, SOAKING RAINFALL IS PANNING OUT SO FAR FOR SOUTHERN
WI TODAY AS LOW PRESSURE TRACKS SOUTHEASTWARD ACROSS IA THROUGH
THE EVENING. SEEING THE RAIN SHIELD ON THE NORTHEAST SIDE OF
THE LOW SPREADING LATE THIS MORNING AND CONTINUE TO SPREAD WEST
TO EAST THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE DAY. WHILE THE RAINFALL
INITIALLY BATTLED SOME DRY AIR WITH 5-10 DEGREE DEWPOINT
DEPRESSIONS, IT EVENTUALLY SATURATED AS SEEN ON LATEST RADAR
TRENDS AND ASSOCIATED WITH PWATS CLIMBING TO ABOVE 1.5 INCHES.
EXPECT THIS ACTIVITY TO CONTINUE SPREAD ACROSS SOUTHERN WI
THROUGH THE EVENING AS SYNOPTIC FORCING FROM MID-LEVEL DCVA AND
LOW-LEVEL WAA ALIGN WITH THE PASSING LOW. GIVEN THE SLOW
MOVEMENT OF THIS SYSTEM, INCREASED SHOWERS CHANCES ARE EXPECTED
THROUGH MUCH OF THE SHORT TERM. CHANCES EVENTUALLY DIMINISH FROM
NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING AS THE LOW
GRADUALLY SLIDES INTO CENTRAL IL AND INTO IN AND LOSE SYNOPTIC
FORCING. WILL ALSO SEE COVERAGE BECOME MORE SCATTERED AS CHANCES
DIMINISH THROUGH THE DAY SATURDAY.
AS FOR RAINFALL TOTALS MAINLY EXPECTING WIDESPREAD AROUND 1
INCH TO 2 INCHES NOW THROUGH SATURDAY EVENING. THE LIGHTER
RAINFALL TOTALS ARE EXPECTED FOR CENTRAL TO EAST-CENTRAL
PORTIONS OF THE CWA THAT REMAIN FURTHER AWAY FROM THE CENTER OF
THE LOW AND SYNOPTIC FORCING WHERE DRIER AIR LAST LONGER. SO
AREAS NORTHEAST OF A LINE FROM MONTELLO TO MEQUON WILL SEE
ANYWHERE FROM HALF AN INCH TO AROUND AN INCH. MEANWHILE, AREAS
CLOSER TO THE CENTER OF THE LOW PRESSURE ACROSS SOUTHWESTERN AND
SOUTH-CENTRAL WI WILL HAVE THE BETTER CHANCES TO SEE 1-3 INCHES
ALONG WITH POCKETS OF HIGHER RAINFALL APPROACHING AND EVEN
EXCEEDING 3 INCHES THROUGH SATURDAY. HIGHER RAINFALL WILL BE
FROM A COMBINATION OF LONGER RESIDENCE TIME OF THE RAINFALL PLUS
THE BETTER ALIGNMENT WITH THE TROWAL, PWATS APPROACHING AND
EVEN EXCEEDING 2 INCHES, AND SYNOPTIC FORCING AROUND THE
DEEPENING SURFACE LOW. WHILE RAINFALL RATES IN THIS AREA ARE
EXPECTED TO REMAIN BELOW HALF AN INCH PER HOUR, COULD SEE A FEW
TALLER SHOWERS DEVELOP ALONG THE BETTER FORCING AXIS AND
ISOLATED POCKETS OF 1"/HR RATES CANNOT BE RULED OUT ALONG WITH
AN ISOLATED AND INFREQUENT LIGHTNING FLASH.
AS MENTIONED BEFORE, THIS WILL BE MORE OF A LONG DURATION LIGHT
RAINFALL WITH RAINFALL RATES UNDER HALF AN INCH PER HOUR. GIVEN
THIS TREND PAIRED WITH DRY ANTECEDENT SOIL CONDITIONS, MUCH OF
THIS RAIN WILL LIKELY BE ABSORBED GIVEN THE MOISTURE DEFICIT.
THUS WIDESPREAD FLOODING CONCERNS REMAIN LIMITED. HOWEVER, THERE
IS STILL A POTENTIAL FOR BRIEF PERIODS AND POCKETS OF HIGHER
RAINFALL RATES, WHICH IF THEY OCCUR OVER THE SAME AREA FOR AN
EXTENDED PERIOD OF TIME, COULD RESULT IN PONDING AND MINOR
FLOODING. BUT COVERAGE FOR THESE CONCERN WILL ISOLATED AND
REALLY NEED TO SEE +1IN/HR RATES AND RAINFALL AMOUNTS EXCEEDING
SEVERAL INCHES. NEVERTHELESS, WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR FOR IF
THESE CONDITIONS END UP DEVELOPING.
PERSISTING RAINFALL AND CLOUD COVER WILL CONTRIBUTE TO COOLER
TEMPS THIS AFTERNOON (UPPER 60S-70) AS WELL AS FOR SATURDAY
(HIGHS IN THE 70S). IN ADDITION TO THE COOLER TEMPS AND
RAINFALL, THE INCREASING PRESSURE GRADIENT DEVELOPING ALONG THE
PASSING SURFACE LOW WILL BRING INCREASING EAST TO NORTHEASTERLY
WINDS TO SOUTHERN WI OVERNIGHT THROUGH THE DAY SATURDAY. COULD
SEE GUSTS OF 20-30 MPH, ESPECIALLY FOR AREA SOUTH OF I-94.
STRONGER WINDS AND ONSHORE FLOW WILL BUILD WAVES TO 4-7FT ALONG
THE LAKESHORE RESULTING IN DANGEROUS CURRENTS ALONG LAKE
MICHIGAN BEACHES TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY AS WELL AS SUNDAY.
THE LOW SLOWLY PUSHES MORE INTO IN AND EASTERN GREAT LAKES
OVERNIGHT SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY. AS THE LOW DEPARTS, SHOWER
CHANCES WILL GRADUALLY DIMINISH FROM NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST
ENDING BY SUNSET SATURDAY.
WAGNER
LONG TERM
ISSUED 130 PM CDT FRI JUL 31 2026
SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY:
UPPER-LEVEL NORTHWESTERLY FLOW DEVELOPS ON THE BACKSIDE OF THE
DEPARTING UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH FOR SUNDAY AS THE SURFACE LOW
SLOWLY TREKS MORE EASTWARD ACROSS THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES. STILL
EXPECTING THE TIGHTER PRESSURE GRADIENT TO LINGER ACROSS
SOUTHERN WI AND WILL SEE ANOTHER DAY OF GUSTY NORTH-
NORTHEASTERLY. HIGH SWIM RISK AND DANGEROUS CURRENTS WILL
CONTINUE DURING THIS TIME AS WELL. THUS BEACH HAZARD STATEMENT
REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL SUNDAY EVENING. OUTSIDE OF A SMALL
POTENTIAL FOR WRAP AROUND SCATTERED SHOWERS, SUNDAY IS LOOKING
PRIMARILY DRY ACROSS MUCH OF THE CWA AS HIGH PRESSURE BEGINS TO
BUILD DOWN ACROSS THE UPPER MIDWEST. TEMPS WILL BE SLIGHTLY
WARMER GIVEN LESS CLOUD COVER WITH HIGH IN THE MID TO UPPER 70S
AND OVERNIGHT LOWS FALLING INTO 50S.
START OF NEXT WEEK WILL REMAIN FAIRLY QUIET AND DRY GIVEN THE
HIGH PRESSURE SITTING OVER THE UPPER GREAT LAKES REGION WITH
NEAR NORMAL TEMPS. DAYTIME TEMPS IN THE 80S AND OVERNIGHT LOWS
IN THE UPPER 50S INTO THE 60S. SURFACE HIGH EVENTUALLY MOVES
EASTWARD LATER MONDAY INTO TUESDAY ALLOWING FOR SOUTHERLY FLOW
AND WAA TO GRADUALLY BUILD INTO SOUTHERN WI. WILL BE A FEW
DEGREES WARMER ON TUESDAY WITH INCREASING DEWPOINTS AND PWATS
ABOVE 1 INCH AS AN UPPER- LEVEL TROUGH DIGS ACROSS THE UPPER
MIDWEST. THE MAIN MID-LEVEL VORTICITY LOBE IS PROGGED TO STAY TO
THE NORTH ALONG WITH THE ASSOCIATED SURFACE LOW. HOWEVER, THIS
SYSTEMS COLD FRONT IS THEN EXPECTED TO DRAG ACROSS OUR NECK OF
THE WOODS LATER TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY. GIVEN THE FORCING ALONG
THE FRONT PAIRED WITH THE INCREASING MOISTURE, EXPECTING
INCREASED PRECIP FOR MIDWEEK. HOWEVER, UNCERTAINTY REMAINS ON
THE TIMING OF THE COLD FRONT. NEVERTHELESS, MID-RANGE MODELS ARE
HINTING AT SOME INSTABILITY INCREASING AHEAD OF THE FRONT AND
ENOUGH TO SUPPORT INCREASED THUNDERSTORM CHANCES.
OTHERWISE THE PATTERN IS TRENDING MORE ACTIVE FOR THE END OF
THE WEEK AS LONG RANGE MODELS HINT AT UPPER-LEVEL WAVES PASSING
THROUGH THE REGION. HOWEVER, UNCERTAINTY REMAINS GIVEN THE
TIMING DIFFERENCES AND VARIOUS MODEL SOLUTIONS THIS FAR OUT.
WAGNER
AVIATION
ISSUED 729 PM CDT FRI JUL 31 2026
RAINFALL AND ASSOCIATED VISIBILITIES OF 2-4 SM THIS EVENING
WILL CONTINUE THROUGHOUT TONIGHT AND MUCH OF SATURDAY. A PERIOD
OF THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE WI/IL BORDER IS EXPECTED LATE
TONIGHT THROUGH EARLY SATURDAY MORNING. CEILINGS WILL ALSO FALL
TO AROUND 1000 FT AND PERHAPS IFR INTO EARLY SATURDAY MORNING.
CONDITIONS WILL GRADUALLY IMPROVE SATURDAY AFTERNOON FROM WEST
TO EAST, BUT CEILINGS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN MVFR THROUGH
SATURDAY EVENING.
EASTERLY GUSTS AROUND 25 KT HAVE DEVELOPED ACROSS SOUTHWESTERN
WISCONSIN, AND WILL SPREAD EASTWARD THROUGH TONIGHT. WINDS WILL
GRADUALLY SHIFT NORTHEASTERLY BY SATURDAY MORNING, BUT WILL
REMAIN GUSTY THROUGHOUT THE DAY. GUSTS UP TO 30 KT ARE POSSIBLE
NEAR LAKE MICHIGAN. NORTHEASTERLY WINDS WILL BECOME LESS GUSTY
LATE SATURDAY AFTERNOON INTO SATURDAY NIGHT.
MH
MARINE
ISSUED 1130 AM CDT FRI JUL 31 2026
LOW PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO TRACK SOUTHEASTWARD ACROSS IA
TODAY AND DEEPEN AS IT PUSHES INTO IL OVERNIGHT INTO SATURDAY.
WILL SEE SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS ACROSS THE LAKE SHIFT MORE
EASTERLY THROUGH THE EVENING AND INCREASE AS THE LOW PRESSURE
SLOWLY MOVES THROUGH THE REGION. THEN LOOKING AT STRONGER
NORTHEASTERLY WINDS WITH GUSTS UP TO 25-30 KNOTS ACROSS SOUTHERN
HALF OF LAKE MICHIGAN THROUGH THE DAY SATURDAY AND LINGERING
INTO SUNDAY AS THE LOW PRESSURE SLOWLY TRACKS OVER THE EASTERN
GREAT LAKES. EXPECT TO SEE SMALL CRAFT CONDITIONS DEVELOP FOR
SOUTHEASTERN WI NEARSHORE ZONE DURING THIS TIMEFRAME AS WELL
WITH WAVE BUILDING UP TO 4-7 FT. ALSO ISOLATED AND INFREQUENT
GUSTS TO GALE-FORCE WILL BE POSSIBLE AT TIMES THIS WEEKEND ON
THE BACKSIDE OF THE DEEPENING LOW PRESSURE FOR SOUTHERN PORTIONS
OF LAKE MICHIGAN. WINDS THEN DIMINISH INTO THE START OF NEXT
WEEK AS THE LOW PRESSURE PUSHES FURTHER EAST WHILE HIGH PRESSURE
BEGINS TO BUILD ACROSS THE UPPER GREAT LAKES REGION MONDAY AND
TUESDAY. THIS WILL BRING LIGHTER AND MORE VARIABLE WINDS TO LAKE
MICHIGAN BEFORE SOUTHERLY WINDS RETURN BY MIDWEEK AS ANOTHER
LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM DEVELOPS OVER THE PLAINS.
WAGNER
MKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
WI...BEACH HAZARDS STATEMENT...WIZ052-WIZ060-WIZ066-WIZ071-
WIZ072...4 AM SATURDAY TO 1 AM MONDAY.
LM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY...LMZ643-LMZ644-LMZ645-LMZ646...4 AM
SATURDAY TO 1 AM MONDAY.
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