473
FXUS63 KMKX 172109
AFDMKX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MILWAUKEE/SULLIVAN WI
309 PM CST WED DEC 17 2025
KEY MESSAGES
- MILDER TEMPERATURES EXPECTED THROUGH EARLY THURSDAY, WITH
HIGHS IN THE MIDDLE TO UPPER 30S.
- A WIDESPREAD LIGHT RAINFALL EVENT IS EXPECTED LATE WEDNESDAY
NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING.
- INCREASING CONCERN FOR SNOW LATE THURSDAY AFTERNOON INTO THE
EVENING WITH THE FRONT THAT MAY EXHIBIT SNOW SQUALL TYPE
BEHAVIOR
- SIGNIFICANTLY COLDER TEMPERATURES (OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE
SINGLE DIGITS TO LOW TEENS) EXPECTED THURSDAY NIGHT,
POTENTIALLY FLASH FREEZING ANY SURFACES THAT REMAIN WET FROM
THURSDAY'S RAIN AND SNOW.
SHORT TERM
ISSUED 300 PM CST WED DEC 17 2025
TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT:
HIGH PRESSURE WILL PUSH OUT TONIGHT AS A FAIRLY STRONG SYSTEM
SLIDES IN LATE TONIGHT. THE LOW PRESSURE WITH THIS SYSTEM WILL
BE AROUND 985MB WITH STRONG SOUTHERLY WINDS AHEAD OF THE INITIAL
FRONT. MODELS HAVE SOME INITIAL PRECIP POTENTIAL AHEAD OF THE
MAJORITY OF THE FORCING PRIMARILY DUE TO STRONG WAA, WITH THE
VERY STRONG LLJ IN PLACE, THOUGH THE STRONGEST FORCING WILL
REMAIN IN NORTHERN WI WHERE THE LLJ IS UPWARDS OF 70-80 KTS.
HOWEVER, AS WE GET TOWARD DAYBREAK WE WILL START TO SEE
SIGNIFICANT FORCING PUSH IN FROM THE SOUTH AND WEST. TO THE
SOUTH WE WILL LIKELY SEE BANDS OF LIGHT PRECIP ASSOCIATED WITH
THE LLJ AND ASSOCIATED WAA BEING DIRECTLY OVERHEAD (THOUGH NOT
AS STRONG AS IN NORTHERN WI). THIS PRECIP WILL BE PARTICULARLY
MAXIMIZED IN NORTHERN IL BUT WILL LIKELY LEAK INTO PARTS OF
SOUTHERN WI WHERE THE OMEGA SHOWN IN SOUNDINGS REALLY RAMPS UP.
ON THE WESTERN SIDE OF THE CWA, WE EXPECT TO SEE SIGNIFICANT
OVERLAPPING FORCING ALONG THE AXIS OF THE INITIAL FRONT. THE
SURFACE FRONT IN COMBINATION WITH STRONG 850MB WAA, VERY STRONG
PVA AT 500MB, AND STRONG FGEN THROUGHOUT THE COLUMN. THIS SHOULD
LEAD TO A PERIOD OF DECENT RAINFALL THURSDAY MORNING ACROSS THE
CWA. THIS WILL HOWEVER BE FAIRLY SHORT-LIVED GIVEN HOW MOST OF
THE FORCING IS CO-LOCATED IN A NARROW AREA. IT ALMOST LOOKS LIKE
JUST A BAND OF PRECIP IN MOST OF THE CAMS.
RAIN WILL LIKELY PUSH OUT BY THE LATE MORNING TO THE WEST AND
EARLY AFTERNOON TO THE EAST WITH DRY CONDITIONS TEMPORARILY.
HOWEVER, WE WILL THEN TRANSITION TO THE SECONDARY FRONT THAT
WILL BRING IN THE COLDER TEMPERATURES BEHIND IT. THIS WILL BRING
POTENTIALLY SIGNIFICANT IMPACTS TO SOUTHERN WI. THIS FRONT IS
LOOKING INCREASINGLY MORE LIKE A SNOW SQUALL SITUATION. THE
FRONT, IN COMBINATION WITH SOME INSTABILITY AND STRONG FGEN,
LOOKS LIKELY TO BRING A BAND OF SNOW, PERHAPS HEAVY, ACROSS AT
LEAST PARTS OF SOUTHERN WI LATE THURSDAY AFTERNOON DURING THE
EVENING COMMUTE. WHILE THERE REMAINS SOME UNCERTAINTY REGARDING
WHAT THIS MAY LOOK LIKE, HOW EXPANSIVE IT IS AND WHAT THE IMPACT
MIGHT BE THE CONCERN HAS BEEN HEIGHTENED FOR THIS GIVEN THE
MODELS SHOWING A PERIOD WHERE THE SNOW SQUALL PARAMETER IS ON
THE HIGHER SIDE. WE WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR THIS BUT RAPID
ONSET SNOW WITH POTENTIAL FOR BRIEF HEAVY SNOW, LOW VISIBILITIES
AND GUSTY WINDS WOULD BE POSSIBLE. WHILE THESE ARE SHORT-LIVED
THE IMPACTS CAN BE SIGNIFICANT FOR TRAVEL. IN ADDITION,
FOLLOWING THE FRONTAL PASSAGE TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO FALL
RAPIDLY WITH LOWS IN THE SINGLE DIGITS OVERNIGHT. THIS WILL LEAD
TO CONCERNS FOR FLASH FREEZE WITH ANY REMNANT WATER ON ROADS
LIKELY FREEZING. THIS WOULD MAKE FOR POTENTIALLY VERY SLICK ROAD
CONDITIONS INTO FRIDAY MORNING.
KUROSKI
LONG TERM
ISSUED 300 PM CST WED DEC 17 2025
FRIDAY THROUGH THURSDAY:
FRIDAY WILL BE CHILLY TO START WITH POTENTIALLY SLICK ROADS FROM
OVERNIGHT FLASH FREEZE POTENTIAL BUT HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE
BACK IN FOR FRIDAY WITH NO CONCERNS FOR PRECIP THOUGH
TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN FAIRLY CHILLY WITH HIGHS IN THE 20S
FOR THE MOST PART. FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY ANOTHER SYSTEM
WILL PUSH THROUGH BUT THERE REMAINS UNCERTAINTY ON WHAT WE MAY
SEE, IF ANYTHING, AS MODELS KEEP THE SYSTEM FAIRLY DRY GIVEN THE
ABSENCE OF SIGNIFICANT MOISTURE. BUT IF SOME MOISTURE CAN BE
ADDED TO THAT SYSTEM WE COULD EASILY SEE SOME PRECIP WITH IT,
LIKELY A RAIN/SNOW MIX WITH THE CURRENT TRACK AND EXACTLY WHERE
THE 540 LINE LINES UP. HIGH PRESSURE THEN IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP
AND STRENGTHEN LATER IN THE WEEKEND.
INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK THINGS BECOME A BIT MORE UNCERTAIN WITH A
CHANCE FOR PRECIP MONDAY AND AGAIN WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO
THURSDAY. ENSEMBLES SHOW AT LEAST A 50% CHANCE FOR 0.01 INCHES
OF PRECIP FOR BOTH DAYS AND THUS IT APPEARS THAT VARIOUS
DIFFERENCES IN TRACKS, MOISTURE AND INTENSITY OF THESE VARIOUS
SYSTEM THERE IS AT LEAST A DECENT CHANCE FOR PRECIP FOR THESE
PERIODS BUT LIKELY HEAVILY RELY ON THE DEVELOPMENT OF A FEW
SHORTWAVES IN THE UPPER LEVELS THAT LIKELY WILL NOT CARRY ANY
SIGNIFICANT PRECIP WITH LIGHT RAIN OR SNOW POSSIBLE GIVEN THE
PLACEMENT OF THE 540 LINE IN MODELS AND CORRESPONDING SURFACE
TEMPS.
KUROSKI
AVIATION
ISSUED 300 PM CST WED DEC 17 2025
FEW/SCT MID TO UPPER LEVEL CLOUD DECK WILL PERSIST THIS
AFTERNOON. THIS DECK WILL ONLY REMAIN FOR A BIT WITH THICK
HIGHER CLOUDS PUSHING IN THIS EVENING AND ANOTHER IFR/MVFR DECK
PUSHING IN LATE THIS EVENING AS THE NEXT SYSTEM PUSHES IN THAT
WILL BRING RAIN TO SOUTHERN WI THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING. THERE
WILL BE A PERIOD OF MODERATE RAIN LIKELY THURSDAY MORNING AS
THE INITIAL FRONT SWEEPS ACROSS SOUTHERN WI. CIGS MAY BECOME
LIFR AT TIMES WITH LOW CIGS GENERALLY LASTING THROUGH THE DAY
THOUGH MAY INTERMITTENTLY CLEAR UP.
IN ADDITION, THERE IS INCREASING CONCERN FOR SNOW SQUALL
POTENTIAL AS THE SECONDARY FRONT COMES THROUGH LATE THURSDAY
AFTERNOON INTO THE EARLY EVENING WITH SNOW, BREEZY WINDS AND
LIKELY DECREASED VISIBILITIES. OVERNIGHT EXPECT FLASH FREEZE
POTENTIAL AS RAIN ON SURFACES MAY FREEZE WITH RAPIDLY DECLINING
TEMPERATURES OVERNIGHT.
KUROSKI
MARINE
ISSUED 300 PM CST WED DEC 17 2025
LOW PRESSURE WILL TRACK EASTWARD ALONG THE CANADIAN BORDER
TONIGHT INTO THURSDAY, BRINGING SOUTHERLY GALES FROM LATE EVENING
THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING. A LULL IN THE GALES MAY OCCUR THURSDAY
AFTERNOON AS LOW PRESSURE CROSSES THE UPPER PENINSULA OF MICHIGAN.
WINDS BECOME WEST AND ACCELERATE BACK TO GALE FORCE BEHIND A
STRONG COLD FRONT THURSDAY EVENING, THEN EVENTUALLY TURN NORTHWEST
THURSDAY NIGHT. A GALE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR ALL OPEN WATERS
OF LAKE MICHIGAN LATE THIS EVENING THROUGH EARLY FRIDAY MORNING.
WESTERLY GALES ARE EXPECTED IN THE NEARSHORE AREAS FROM EARLY
THURSDAY EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING.
MODERATE FREEZING SPRAY IS EXPECTED TO ACCOMPANY THE GALES LATE
THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY MORNING AS A BITTER COLD AIRMASS
BRIEFLY ENTERS OUR REGION.
FRIDAY NIGHT, ANOTHER LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM SWINGS THROUGH SOUTHERN
CANADA, BRINGING GUSTY SOUTH-SOUTHWEST WINDS ONCE AGAIN. GALES ARE
POSSIBLE, BUT CONFIDENCE IS LOWER WITH TIMING AND INTENSITY AT
THIS TIME.
CRONCE
MKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
WI...NONE.
LM...GALE WARNING...LMZ080-LMZ261-LMZ362-LMZ364-LMZ366-LMZ563-
LMZ565-LMZ567-LMZ669-LMZ671-LMZ673-LMZ675-LMZ777-LMZ779-
LMZ868-LMZ870-LMZ872-LMZ874-LMZ876-LMZ878...11 PM
WEDNESDAY TO 9 AM FRIDAY.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY...LMZ643-LMZ644-LMZ645-LMZ646...6 PM
WEDNESDAY TO 6 PM THURSDAY.
GALE WARNING...LMZ643-LMZ644-LMZ645-LMZ646...6 PM
THURSDAY TO 9 AM FRIDAY.
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