069
FXUS63 KMKX 181901
AFDMKX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MILWAUKEE/SULLIVAN WI
201 PM CDT MON MAY 18 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- ANOTHER ROUND OF SHOWERS AND STORMS LATE TONIGHT INTO TUESDAY
WITH A POTENTIAL FOR STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS.
- COOL AND DRIER WEATHER THEN RETURNS FOR MIDWEEK.
- RAIN CHANCES RETURN FRIDAY (45-55%), FOLLOWED BY A GRADUAL
WARMING TREND SATURDAY INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.
SHORT TERM
ISSUED 200 PM CDT MON MAY 18 2026
LATE THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT:
QUIET WEATHER LARGELY EXPECTED THE REST OF THE AFTERNOON INTO
THE EVENING WITH REMNANT CONVECTION MOVING OFF TO THE EAST WITH
QUITE A BIT OF CLEARING ONGOING RIGHT NOW AHEAD OF DEVELOPING
STORMS TO THE SOUTHWEST THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THIS IS WHAT
WE WILL BE MONITORING TONIGHT AS IT PUSHES INTO THE CWA. BASED
ON THE DEVELOPMENT OF THIS CONVECTION WILL IN PART DETERMINE HOW
THINGS PLAY OUT TONIGHT. SEVERAL MODELS FAVOR DEVELOPMENT AND
PROGRESSION INTO A QLCS WITH A EASTWARD PROGRESSION. MOST
MODELS HAVE THIS POTENTIALLY BECOMING ELEVATED IN ADDITION TO
LIMITED INSTABILITY. AS THIS PUSHES EAST TOWARD SOUTHEAST WI
CAMS LARGELY HAVE THIS FALLING APART WITH VERY LIMITED
INSTABILITY AND VERY LIKELY AN ELEVATED SYSTEM AT THAT POINT,
WHICH WOULD REDUCE SEVERE RISK TO ESSENTIALLY ZERO. HOWEVER, IT
IS WORTH MENTIONING THAT CLEARING THIS AFTERNOON HAS DEFINITELY
INCREASED OUR SEVERE RISK AS WE WILL LIKELY BE ABLE TO HANG ON
TO A BIT MORE INSTABILITY AND MAY AVOID STORMS IMMEDIATELY
BECOMING ELEVATED AS THEY REACH THE CWA. THE BEST SEVERE RISK
FOR TONIGHT WILL BE IN SOUTHWEST WI, LIKELY SOUTHWEST OF
MADISON, WITH DECREASING RISK FURTHER EAST. WE WILL NEED TO
MONITOR STORMS TO THE SOUTHWEST TONIGHT AS THE DEVELOPMENT AND
PROGRESSION WILL PLAY A ROLE IN DETERMINING THE POTENTIAL FOR
SEVERE STORMS LATER TONIGHT.
THE REMNANT STORMS AND PRECIP WILL PUSH OUT BY MID MORNING WITH
OUR ATTENTION TURNING TO THE COLD FRONT THAT WILL CLOSELY
FOLLOWING THE EXITING PRECIP. THERE IS A MILD CONCERN FOR
DEVELOPING STORMS ALONG THE FRONT BUT WITH DEPARTING STORMS IN
THE MORNING IT DOES NOT APPEAR THERE WILL ANY RECOVERY TIME
AHEAD OF THE FRONT WITH MODELS SUGGESTING VERY LIMITED
INSTABILITY AND FRANKLY NOT A GREAT SHEAR ENVIRONMENT EITHER.
THIS SUGGESTS THAT EVENT SHOULD WEEK STORMS DEVELOP THEY WOULD
NOT LIKELY BE OF CONCERN. THE FRONT SHOULD PUSH IN BY THE LATE
MORNING AND PUSH THROUGH ALL OF SOUTHERN WI BY EARLY TO MID
AFTERNOON. THE BEST CHANCE FOR WEAK STORM DEVELOPMENT WITH THE
FRONT IS LIKELY IN SOUTHEAST WI WHERE THE BEST CHANCE FOR
RECOVERY WOULD BE. OTHERWISE, EXPECT QUIET CONDITIONS INTO THE
LATE AFTERNOON AND OVERNIGHT AS WINDS TURN NORTHWEST BEHIND THE
FRONT WITH HIGHER PRESSURE GRADUALLY PUSHING BEHIND IT.
KUROSKI
LONG TERM
ISSUED 200 PM CDT MON MAY 18 2026
WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY:
COOL AND DRY WEATHER EXPECTED WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY, WITH STRONG
HIGH PRESSURE PASSING OVERHEAD AND NORTHEAST TO EAST WINDS OFF OF
LAKE MICHIGAN (AROUND 10 TO 15 MPH AT TIMES). MUCH OF EASTERN WI
SHOULD SEE HIGHS IN THE 50S, WITH LOW TO MID 60S FURTHER WEST.
SOME MUCH NEEDED CALM AND QUIET WEATHER.
OUR NEXT NOTEWORTHY CHANCE FOR PRECIPITATION ARRIVES FRIDAY, WITH
ROUGHLY HALF OF THE AVAILABLE MODEL GUIDANCE RESOLVING A LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM TRACKING NORTHEASTWARD FROM THE GREAT PLAINS AND
APPROACHING OUR REGION. THE FAVORED TRACK OF THIS SYSTEM WOULD
STALL IT EITHER TO OUR SOUTH OR OUR WEST, WITH THE CONTINUED
ONSHORE FLOW FROM LAKE MICHIGAN HELPING TO REDUCE INSTABILITY AND
PREVENT SUBSTANTIAL MOISTURE RETURN OVER SOUTHERN WI. HENCE, WE
ONLY FORECAST SLIGHT CHANCES FOR THUNDERSTORMS FRIDAY, WITH RAIN
CHANCES INCREASING FROM 15-55% IN A SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST MANNER
AS THE DAY GOES BY. AS WITH ANY LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM THIS TIME OF
YEAR, WE WILL HAVE TO KEEP AN EYE ON IT'S TRACK AND EVOLUTION,
BUT ENSEMBLE CONSENSUS STRONGLY SUGGESTS INSUFFICIENT MOISTURE
RETURN / INSTABILITY FOR MUCH IN THE WAY OF THUNDER.
PREDICTABILITY DROPS SUBSTANTIALLY FOR SATURDAY AND ONWARDS, BUT
THE GENERAL CONSENSUS IS A WARMING TREND THAT CONTINUES INTO EARLY
NEXT WEEK.
SHEPPARD
AVIATION
ISSUED 200 PM CDT MON MAY 18 2026
CONDITIONS HAVE QUIETED TODAY WITH SOME CLEARING OVERHEAD RIGHT
NOW THAT WILL GRADUALLY BE IMPINGED ON TODAY BY CLOUDS TO THE
WEST. HOWEVER, OUR ATTENTION IS CURRENTLY ON DEVELOPING
CONVECTION TO THE SOUTHWEST THAT WILL EVENTUALLY TRACK INTO
SOUTHWEST WI LATER TONIGHT ALONG WITH MVFR CIGS AND MAYBE SOME
TEMPORARILY LOWERED VSBYS WITH RAIN. AT THIS TIME STORMS ARE
NOT EXPECTED TO BE STRONG BUT THERE IS A CHANCES FOR STRONGER
WINDS TO LINGER INTO SOUTHWESTERN WI BUT LIKELY WEAKENING BY
THE TIME IT REACHES SOUTHEAST WI BUT SOME THUNDER COULD BE
EXPECTED ALL THROUGH SOUTHERN WI OVERNIGHT. JUST AFTER DAYBREAK
MOST OF THE RAIN AND STORMS SHOULD HAVE PUSHED OUT TO THE EAST
WITH CLOUDS REMAINING IN PLACE AHEAD OF THE FRONT EXPECTED TO
COME THROUGH FROM THE LATE MORNING THROUGH EARLY TO MID
AFTERNOON. SOME SHOWERS AND PERHAPS A WEAK STORMS POSSIBLE ALONG
THE FRONT BUT CURRENTLY LIMITED PRECIP ALONG THE FRONT IS
EXPECTED. AS THE FRONT PUSHES THROUGH EXPECT MVFR CIGS TO CLEAR
OUT AND LIKELY ONLY HIGHER CIGS REMAINING BEHIND THE FRONT.
CLEARING SKIES EXPECTED OVERNIGHT.
KUROSKI
MARINE
ISSUED 200 PM CDT MON MAY 18 2026
STORMS AND SHOWERS ARE PUSHING OUT AS WINDS BEHIND THIS REMAIN
BREEZY FROM THE SOUTH. THESE WINDS WILL INCREASE SLIGHTLY
ACROSS THE LAKE LATE TONIGHT AND REMAIN BREEZY AHEAD OF THE COLD
FRONTAL PASSAGE EXPECTED TUESDAY AFTERNOON AS THE LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM AROUND 29.6 INCHES SWINGS NORTHEAST OF THE LAKE INTO
ONTARIO. A FEW STORMS CHANCES ACROSS PRIMARILY THE SOUTH PART OF
THE LAKE LATE TONIGHT INTO TUESDAY MORNING AHEAD OF THE FRONT.
HIGH PRESSURE AROUND 30.4 INCHES WILL PUSH IN BEHIND THE FRONT
WITH LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS TAKING HOLD FROM LATE WEDNESDAY
INTO THURSDAY.
CURRENTLY THE NORTHERN NEARSHORE ZONE IS IN A SMALL CRAFT FOR
PRIMARILY WAVE HEIGHTS TO 5 FEET. WINDS WILL BECOME BREEZIER
TONIGHT ACROSS MUCH OF THE NEARSHORE AND THUS WE WILL HAVE AN
EXPANDED SMALL CRAFT THROUGH MUCH OF TUESDAY BEFORE THE FRONT
TUESDAY TURNS WINDS NORTHWEST AND CALM TO A DEGREE
KUROSKI
MKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
WI...NONE.
LM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY...LMZ643 UNTIL 7 PM TUESDAY.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY...LMZ644-LMZ645-LMZ646...4 AM TUESDAY TO
4 PM TUESDAY.
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