730
FXUS63 KMKX 211924 CCA
AFDMKX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...CORRECTED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MILWAUKEE/SULLIVAN WI
224 PM CDT FRI AUG 21 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- STORM REDEVELOPMENT (~40-60% CHANCES) ~2-9 PM THIS
AFTERNOON/EVENING. A FEW SEVERE STORMS CAN'T BE RULED OUT,
PARTICULARLY ALONG & WEST OF I-39.
- SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ~12-7 PM SATURDAY MAINLY IN EAST-
CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST WISCONSIN. AN ISOLATED STRONGER STORM
WITH GUSTY WINDS OR HAIL CAN'T BE RULED OUT.
- DRY AND PLEASANT CONDITIONS SUNDAY INTO THE BEGINNING OF NEXT
WEEK. STORM CHANCES RETURN TUESDAY EVENING INTO WEDNESDAY.
SHORT TERM
ISSUED 205 PM CDT FRI AUG 21 2026
THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT:
SYNOPSIS/MESOANALYSIS: EARLY DAY SHOWERS & STORMS HAVE LARGELY
VACATED EARLY THIS AFTERNOON, THOUGH ACTIVITY IS LINGERING ALONG THE
STATE LINE FROM JANESVILLE EAST TO KENOSHA. ACTIVITY LAID DOWN A
DEEPER OUTFLOW BOUNDARY, WITH SATELLITE AND SURFACE OBS SHOWING THE
BOUNDARY EXTENDING FROM ROCKFORD, IL TO MONROE TO LONE ROCK. FURTHER
NORTH, A WARM FRONTAL BOUNDARY IS APPARENT FROM MAUSTON TOWARDS THE
RHINELANDER VICINITY. THE NORTHERN WARM FRONT & SOUTHERN OUTFLOW
BOUNDARY FORM THE EASTERN BOUND ON AN UNSTABLE WARM SECTOR IN PLACE
OVER WEST-CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST WISCONSIN. THIS WARM SECTOR WILL
ATTEMPT TO WORK TOWARD SOUTH-CENTRAL & SOUTHEAST WISCONSIN THROUGH
THE AFTERNOON, ALLOWING THE ATMOSPHERE TO RECOVER FOR ADDITIONAL
STORM DEVELOPMENT AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE NORTHWEST.
SOME REDEVELOPING STORMS WILL HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO BE SEVERE, WITH
CHANCES BEING GREATEST ALONG & WEST OF I-39 WHERE INSTABILITY WILL
BE GREATEST. LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS ARE THE PRIMARY HAZARDS,
THOUGH AN ISOLATED TORNADO CAN'T BE RULED OUT. STAY WEATHER AWARE
THROUGH THIS EVENING. CONDITIONS WILL DRY OUT AFTER MIDNIGHT AS THE
COLD FRONT PUSHES OUT OF THE AREA.
THIS AFTERNOON & EVENING: COMPLEX SET UP FOR RE-DEVELOPING
THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE IN PLACE ACROSS SOUTHERN WISCONSIN DURING THE
~2-9 PM TIME FRAME AS A COLD FRONT MOVES IN FROM THE WEST.
ANTICIPATING GENERAL THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL AREAWIDE DURING THIS
WINDOW AS THE FRONT MOVES IN, WITH ALL STORMS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING
BRIEF HEAVY DOWNPOURS AND CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING. WIDESPREAD
FLOODING POTENTIAL IS LOW GIVEN EXPECTED FASTER STORM MOTIONS. ANY
STRONG/SEVERE STORMS WILL FOCUS OVER MORE REFINED PORTIONS OF THE
REGION GETTING INTO THE SURFACE WARM SECTOR/BEST INSTABILITY
RECOVERIES. OBSERVATIONAL AND HIGH-RES MODEL TRENDS SUGGEST THAT
THIS WILL BE ALONG & WEST OF I-39, WHERE A BRIEF WINDOW OF
SUNSHINE WILL PRECEDE THE ENCROACHING COLD FRONT. BORNE OUT IN
ONGOING ACTIVITY NEAR LA CROSSE, MODEST BUT SUFFICIENT EFFECTIVE
SHEAR WILL BE SUPPORTIVE FOR ORGANIZED ACTIVITY (BOTH CELLS &
CLUSTERS) CAPABLE OF DAMAGING WINDS AND SOME LARGE HAIL. WHILE
DIRECTIONAL WIND SHEAR IS MARGINAL, AN ISOLATED TORNADO CAN'T BE
RULED OUT, PARTICULARLY IN DISCRETE CELLS THAT INTERACT WITH ANY
OF THE SURFACE BOUNDARIES. WILL BE MONITORING RADAR TRENDS CLOSELY
FOR ANY WARNINGS. STAY WEATHER AWARE THIS EVENING, PARTICULARLY
IF PLANNING TO BE OUTDOORS.
QUIGLEY
LONG TERM
ISSUED 205 PM CDT FRI AUG 21 2026
SATURDAY THROUGH FRIDAY:
SYNOPSIS: BACK SIDE OF A PASSING MID-LEVEL WAVE WILL LINGER ACROSS
THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES ON SATURDAY, COMBINING WITH LIFT ALONG A
BACK DOOR COLD FRONT/LAKE BREEZE TO SUPPORT SCATTERED THUNDERSTORM
DEVELOPMENT OVER MAINLY EAST-CENTRAL & SOUTHEAST WISCONSIN DURING
THE AFTERNOON HOURS. HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE THROUGH THE WESTERN
GREAT LAKES SUNDAY INTO THE BEGINNING OF NEXT WEEK, BRINGING DRY AND
PLEASANT CONDITIONS SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY. THE NEXT UPPER
DISTURBANCE IS FORECAST TO SWING THROUGH THE REGION TUESDAY EVENING
INTO WEDNESDAY, BRINGING THE NEXT CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS. LINGERING TIMING UNCERTAINTIES OF THE UPPER LEVEL
WAVE & AFFILIATED SURFACE BOUNDARIES MAKE THE SPECIFICS OF ANY
STRONG/SEVERE STORM POTENTIAL UNCLEAR AT THIS TIME, WITH TRENDS
BEING MONITORED IN COMING FORECASTS. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD BACK
INTO THE AREA BY THURSDAY, RESULTING IN QUIETER CONDITIONS.
SATURDAY: ANTICIPATING DIURNAL THUNDERSHOWER DEVELOPMENT BETWEEN ~12-
7 PM AS A COMBINATION OF WARMING SURFACE TEMPERATURES AND COOL
TEMPERATURES ALOFT LEAD TO MODEST DESTABILIZATION. CURRENT
EXPECTATION IS FOR HIGHEST PRECIP CHANCES TO FOCUS IN EAST-CENTRAL &
SOUTHEAST WISCONSIN, WHERE LIFT FROM A BACKDOOR COLD FRONT/LAKE
BREEZE WILL PROVIDE A FOCUS FOR CONVECTIVE INITIATION. FORECAST
SOUNDINGS POINT TOWARD WEAKER EFFECTIVE SHEAR & THUS A LESS
ORGANIZED STORM MODE RELATIVE TO TODAY, BUT CAN'T ENTIRELY RULE OUT
AN ISOLATED STRONGER STORM WITH GUSTY WINDS OR SMALL HAIL IN
LOCATIONS BENEFITING FROM FULL SUNSHINE THROUGH THE MORNING/EARLY
AFTERNOON HOURS. WILL BE MONITORING TRENDS.
QUIGLEY
AVIATION
ISSUED 205 PM CDT FRI AUG 21 2026
MIXTURE OF FLIGHT CATEGORIES PREVAILS EARLY THIS AFTERNOON BEHIND
EARLIER SHRA & TSRA. HAVE ACCOUNTED FOR CURRENT TRENDS IN THE NEAR-
TERM FORECASTS AT ALL TERMINALS, WITH THE GENERAL EXPECTATION FOR
CIGS TO LIFT WHILE WINDS TURN SOUTH-SOUTHWESTERLY AS THE AFTERNOON
PROGRESSES. CONTINUE TO MONITOR FOR ADDITIONAL SHRA & TSRA
DEVELOPMENT LATER IN THE AFTERNOON AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM
THE NORTHWEST. DEVELOPMENT OF PRECIP WILL BE HEAVILY DEPENDENT ON
ATMOSPHERIC RECOVERY IN THE WAKE OF MORNING ACTIVITY, WITH THE
EASTERN EXTENT OF BETTER RECOVERY IN QUESTION AS OF THIS FORECAST.
HAVE THUS TRENDED TSRA MENTIONS BASED ON RELATIVE CONFIDENCE FROM
WEST TO EAST IN THE 18Z UPDATE. HAVE INSERTED TEMPO GROUPS AT MSN
AND JVL, WHERE CONFIDENCE IN RECOVERY IS HIGHER, WHILE MAINTAINING
EXISTING PROB30 GROUPS FURTHER EAST. WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR RADAR
TRENDS THIS AFTERNOON & REFINE WHERE NECESSARY. PRECIP CHANCES WILL
DIMINISH BY MID-LATE EVENING AS THE APPROACHING COLD FRONT CLEARS TO
THE SOUTHEAST OF THE REGION.
QUIGLEY
MARINE
ISSUED 205 PM CDT FRI AUG 21 2026
SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL INCREASE TODAY AS A LOW PRESSURE
TROUGH OF 29.8 INCHES APPROACHES SOUTHERN WISCONSIN FROM THE
MINNESOTA ARROWHEAD. ONGOING THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE FAR SOUTHERN
OPEN WATERS WILL VACATE THIS AFTERNOON, WITH MORE STORM DEVELOPMENT
POSSIBLE INTO THIS EVENING. A FEW STORMS COULD BE STRONG WITH
GUSTY WINDS, AND HAIL. THE AFOREMENTIONED TROUGH WILL CROSS LAKE
MICHIGAN FROM NORTH TO SOUTH TONIGHT AND BRING A WIND SHIFT TO
THE NORTHWEST. THEN LOOK FOR GUSTY NORTHERLY WINDS TO DEVELOP
ALONG A COLD FRONT THAT WILL TRACK FROM NORTH TO SOUTH DOWN LAKE
MICHIGAN SATURDAY EVENING. A FEW THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE
ALONG THIS FRONT. NORTHERLY WINDS WILL PERSIST THROUGH SUNDAY AS
LOW PRESSURE AROUND 29.6 INCHES TRACKS FROM LOWER MICHIGAN TO
ONTARIO. VARIABLE WINDS ARE EXPECTED FOR MONDAY AND TUESDAY AS
HIGH PRESSURE OF 30.1 INCHES CROSSES THE UPPER GREAT LAKES.
WIDESPREAD/PROLONGED SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS AREN'T EXPECTED
THROUGH THE PERIOD IN NEARSHORE ZONES. WILL BE MONITORING FOR A
BRIEF PERIOD OF ADVISORY CONDITIONS NEXT TUESDAY, THOUGH CONFIDENCE
ON THE EVENTUAL NEED FOR HEADLINES IS LOW AT THIS TIME.
THUNDERSTORMS CURRENTLY MOVING THROUGH THE REGION WILL CLEAR OUT BY
EARLY AFTERNOON, WITH ADDITIONAL STORM DEVELOPMENT OCCURRING ALONG A
COLD FRONT THIS EVENING. A FEW OF THESE STORMS COULD BE STRONG
WITH GUSTY WINDS AND HAIL.
QUIGLEY
MKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
WI...NONE.
LM...NONE.
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