736
FXUS63 KMKX 121011
AFDMKX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MILWAUKEE/SULLIVAN WI
511 AM CDT MON OCT 12 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- WELL ABOVE-NORMAL TO NEAR RECORD HIGH TEMPS CONTINUE TODAY.
- ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS THIS
AFTERNOON/EVENING NORTH OF A DELLS-MILWAUKEE LINE. PEAK PRECIP
POTENTIAL IS 5:00 PM TO MIDNIGHT.
- INCREASING POTENTIAL FOR RAINFALL BETWEEN WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND
FRIDAY MORNING, WITH CHANCES FOR THUNDERSTORMS AT TIMES. RAIN
CHANCES PEAK (50-70%) ON THURSDAY.
- VERY GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS POSSIBLE FRIDAY.
- MUCH COLDER TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED NEXT WEEKEND, WITH FROST
BECOMING LIKELY.
UPDATE
ISSUED 505 AM CDT MON OCT 12 2026
BROAD WARM ADVECTION IS INCREASING REGIONALLY THIS MORNING,
PROMOTING SCATTERED TO BROKEN UPPER LEVEL CLOUD DEVELOPMENT
REGIONALLY. EXPECTATIONS ARE FOR THESE CLOUDS TO SCATTER OUT BY
MID-MORNING, WITH AN ABUNDANCE OF SUNSHINE ALLOWING FOR ANOTHER
AFTERNOON PERIOD WITH WELL ABOVE-NORMAL HIGH TEMPERATURES. GIVEN
EXPECTATIONS FOR THINNING CLOUDS BY MID-LATE MORNING (AND
OBSERVATIONAL SUPPORT FOR SAID EXPECTATIONS IN UPSTREAM
SATELLITE IMAGERY), HAVE NUDGED AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES UP A TICK
IN A RECENT UPDATE. SHOULD THE LATEST TEMP FORECAST VERIFY,
RECORD HIGH TEMPS WOULD BE CHALLENGED AND/OR BROKEN AT BOTH
MILWAUKEE (83; 1995) AND MADISON (83; 2008). WILL BE MONITORING
SKY AND ASSOCIATED TEMPERATURE TRENDS THROUGH THIS MORNING.
FURTHER WEST, CURRENT WATER VAPOR IMAGERY DEPICTS A SHORTWAVE
TROUGH MOVING INTO THE NEBRASKA SANDHILLS. EXPECT THIS WAVE TO
RIDE NORTHEAST INTO THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY BY LATE
AFTERNOON, WITH AN ULTIMATE PROGRESSION INTO NORTH-CENTRAL
WISCONSIN ANTICIPATED THROUGH THE FIRST HALF OF THE EVENING.
LIFT FROM THE ENCROACHING WAVE, SUPPLEMENTED BY CONVERGENCE
ALONG A SLOW-MOVING SURFACE FRONT, WILL HELP TO TRIGGER
SCATTERED SHOWER AND STORM DEVELOPMENT REGIONALLY DURING THE
EARLY-MIDDLE PORTIONS OF THIS EVENING. GIVEN THE PROJECTED
PLACEMENT/TRACK OF PERTINENT FORCING MECHANISMS, EXPECTATIONS
ARE FOR THE MAJORITY OF SHOWER/STORM ACTIVITY TO REMAIN NORTH OF
A WISCONSIN DELLS-MILWAUKEE LINE. HAVE THUS MAINTAINED PRECIP
PROBABILITIES FROM LAST EVENING'S FORECAST, AS THEY APPEAR
REPRESENTATIVE TO THE MOST LIKELY LOCATIONS TO SEE PRECIP.
ANY SHOWER/STORM POTENTIAL WILL WANE AFTER MIDNIGHT AS SHORTWAVE
DYNAMICS MOVE NORTHEAST OF THE REGION.
QUIGLEY
SHORT TERM
ISSUED 1015 PM CDT SUN OCT 11 2026
MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT:
A MODEST SOUTHWEST BREEZE AND CONTINUED WAA THROUGH MONDAY
SHOULD ALLOW THE WARMTH TO SPREAD TO THE SHORELINE, WITH DAYTIME
HIGHS CHALLENGING RECORDS FOR THE HOLIDAY. HIGHS IN THE LOW TO
MID 80S EXPECTED REGION-WIDE, WARMEST FURTHER SOUTH AND WEST.
OBLONG LOW PRESSURE SPANNING FROM THE GREAT PLAINS TO MN WILL
DRIFT NORTHEAST THROUGH MONDAY, EVENTUALLY REACHING CENTRAL WI
MONDAY EVENING. SOME SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS (15-35% CHANCES) ARE FORECAST ACROSS CENTRAL,
EAST-CENTRAL, AND SOUTHEASTERN WI MONDAY AFTERNOON INTO MONDAY
NIGHT.
NOT ANTICIPATING ANY ORGANIZED OR SEVERE STORMS WITH THIS
ACTIVITY; THE PAST SEVERAL MODEL CYCLES HAVE BEEN STEADY ON
ROUGHLY 1,000 TO 1,500 JOULES MUCAPE, WITH SURFACE INSTABILITY
STRONGLY CAPPED AND THE AVAILABLE ELEVATED INSTABILITY FACING
ROUGHLY 100 JOULES OR LESS CIN. THE SYNOPTIC CONVERGENCE AND
ASCENT INTO THE APPROACHING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM SHOULD BE ENOUGH
TO CRANK UP SOME ELEVATED CONVECTION, MAINLY BETWEEN 5:00 PM AND
MIDNIGHT. THE HIGHEST POTENTIAL (15-35%) EXISTS NORTH OF A
WISCONSIN DELLS TO KENOSHA LINE, CLOSER TO THE PASSING LOW
PRESSURE (TO THE NORTH) AND IN PROXIMITY TO A NW-SE ORIENTED
AXIS OF SURFACE-850MB CONFLUENCE ALONG THE PRIMARY (OR A
SECONDARY) WARM FRONT.
SHEPPARD
LONG TERM
ISSUED 1015 PM CDT SUN OCT 11 2026
TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY:
A COLD FRONT FROM THE AFOREMENTIONED LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM VEERS
SURFACE WINDS TO THE NORTHWEST TUESDAY MORNING, LEAVING THE
ENTIRE DAY WITH PREDOMINANTLY DRY WEATHER AND NOTICEABLY COOLER
(BUT STILL UNSEASONABLY WARM) TEMPERATURES. THIS FRONT WILL THEN
STALL ACROSS NORTHERN IL / CENTRAL IA, SERVING AS A FOCAL POINT
FOR REDEVELOPING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO OUR SOUTH TUESDAY
NIGHT AS THE LLJ CRANKS UP SOUTH OF IT. THE PROXIMITY OF THIS
BOUNDARY YIELDS SOME 30-60% SHOWER AND STORM CHANCES IN
SOUTHERN WI TUESDAY NIGHT, MAINLY ALONG AND SOUTH OF THE I-94
CORRIDOR, AS WELL AS THE HWY 18 CORRIDOR WEST OF MADISON.
HIGHEST CHANCES ARE BY THE IL BORDER. PREDOMINANTLY DRY WEATHER
IS THEN EXPECTED THROUGH THE DAY WEDNESDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS INTO THE GREAT LAKES REGION AND FORCES THE FRONTAL ZONE
FURTHER SOUTH.
A MODEST 500MB TROUGH THEN DIGS SOUTH FROM SOUTH-CENTRAL CANADA
INTO THE GREAT PLAINS WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY, WITH A
DIRECTLY-ASSOCIATED SURFACE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM (A CLIPPER SYSTEM)
TRACKING EAST ACROSS SOUTHERN CANADA WITH IT. THE SOUTHERN
COMPONENT OF THIS SAME TROUGH AXIS PHASES WITH LINGERING OBLONG
LOW PRESSURE / BAROCLINICITY LEFT BEHIND BY THE AFOREMENTIONED
COLD FRONT, SEEDING THE DEVELOPMENT OF ANOTHER LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
NEAR MISSOURI. THE TWO LOW-PRESSURE SYSTEMS (AND THEIR
CORRESPONDING UPPER WAVES) WOULD THEN TRACK EAST AND MERGE
TOGETHER EAST OF THE GREAT LAKES REGION LATER THIS WEEK,
AMPLIFYING AND INTENSIFYING RAPIDLY. MANY THINGS NEED TO PHASE
TOGETHER WELL IN ORDER FOR THIS PICTURE TO COME TOGETHER THE WAY
I'VE DESCRIBED IT, BUT THE GIST OF IT IS WE COULD (POTENTIALLY)
SEE SOME REGION-WIDE RAINFALL LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH
FRIDAY MORNING AS THE SOUTHERN LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM PASSES JUST
SOUTH OF THE REGION. NO ORGANIZED THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL IS
EVIDENT, BUT THE RAINFALL IS REACHING A GOOD GENERAL CONSENSUS
AMONGST MODEL GUIDANCE (50-70% RAIN CHANCES, WHICH PEAK ON
THURSDAY).
STRONG HIGH PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO DESCEND FROM CANADA INTO THE
DAKOTAS ON FRIDAY, WORKING WITH THE EQUALLY INTENSE DEPARTING LOW
PRESSURE TO FORM A STRONG PRESSURE GRADIENT AND VERY GUSTY NW
WINDS ACROSS WI ON FRIDAY. STRONG CAA WOULD THEN LEAD TO HIGH
FROST POTENTIAL (OR PERHAPS EVEN A FREEZE) THIS WEEKEND. WITH
SOME OF THE MORE EXTREME GUIDANCE, OVERNIGHT LOW TEMPS INTO THE
20S COULD EVEN BE POSSIBLE. ON THE OTHER END OF THE MODEL
SPECTRUM, THERE ARE FAR LESS AMPLIFIED MODEL SOLUTIONS THAT DEPICT
MORE OF A DOUBLE-BARRELED LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM AS OPPOSED TO A
STRONGER / UNIFIED LOW, AS WELL AS SIGNIFICANTLY WEAKER SURFACE
HIGH PRESSURE COMING IN FROM THE WEST, AND LEAVE TEMPERATURES
BELOW NORMAL BUT PAR FOR THE COURSE IN MID AUTUMN. UNTIL THINGS
BECOME CLEARER, OUR FORECAST FOR THIS WEEKEND WILL STICK WITH THE
MIDDLE-GROUND SOLUTION OF HIGHS IN THE 50S AND LOWS IN THE 30S. WE
WILL KEEP YOU POSTED ON TRENDS.
SHEPPARD
AVIATION
ISSUED 505 AM CDT MON OCT 12 2026
VFR FLIGHT CATEGORIES PREVAIL THROUGH THE PERIOD AT ALL
TERMINALS. WARM ADVECTION IS INCREASING REGIONALLY THIS MORNING,
LEADING TO SCT-BKN CLOUDS NEAR FL250. EXPECT THESE CLOUDS TO
THIN BY MID-MORNING, WITH PERIODICALLY GUSTY SOUTHWEST WINDS
BECOMING ESTABLISHED BY EARLY AFTERNOON. AN UPPER DISTURBANCE
WILL CROSS NORTH-CENTRAL WISCONSIN THIS EVENING, BRINGING
SCATTERED SHRA/TSRA CHANCES TO AREAS MAINLY NORTH AND EAST OF A
WISCONSIN DELLS - MILWAUKEE LINE. HAVE CONTINUED TO CARRY PROB30
TSRA MENTIONS AT SBM, WHERE CONFIDENCE IN PRECIP IS GREATEST.
HAVE WITHHELD ANY MENTIONS FURTHER SOUTH GIVEN GREATER
UNCERTAINTY SURROUNDING STORM DEVELOPMENT. WILL BE MONITORING
TRENDS FOR POSSIBLE AMENDMENTS THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON. ANY
PRECIP WILL SHUT DOWN AFTER MIDNIGHT AS FORCING SHIFTS WELL
NORTHEAST OF THE AREA. A PASSING LOW LEVEL JET WILL SUPPORT LLWS
POTENTIAL THROUGH PORTIONS OF THE OVERNIGHT HOURS, WITH
MENTIONS CONTINUING AT ALL TERMINALS IN THE COMING 12Z FORECAST.
QUIGLEY
MARINE
ISSUED 1015 PM CDT SUN OCT 11 2026
OPEN WATERS / SYNOPSIS:
BROAD LOW PRESSURE AROUND 29.5 INCHES OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS TO
MINNESOTA WILL DRIVE SOUTH-SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS THROUGH THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS AND INTO MONDAY. THIS LOW IS EXPECTED TO LIFT INTO
MINNESOTA AND EVENTUALLY CENTRAL WISCONSIN BY MONDAY EVENING.
EXPECTING SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP
MONDAY NIGHT AS THE LOW APPROACHES AND CROSSES THE OPEN WATERS.
WINDS SHIFT TO NORTHWESTERLY ON TUESDAY AS AN ASSOCIATED COLD
FRONT CROSSES THE LAKE AND THE LOW PRESSURE EXITS EAST. THE FRONT
MAY STALL JUST SOUTH OF THE LAKE TUESDAY NIGHT, WITH A LIGHT
NORTHERLY BREEZE ACROSS THE LAKE AND SHOWER / THUNDERSTORM
POTENTIAL TOWARDS THE SOUTHERN END OF THE LAKE.
HIGH PRESSURE AROUND 30.2 INCHES BUILDING INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS
WILL KEEP WINDS NORTHERLY INTO WEDNESDAY, TURNING NORTHEASTERLY
WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND EASTERLY INTO THURSDAY AS THE HIGH PRESSURE
PASSES NORTH OF THE LAKE AND LOW PRESSURE OF 29.9 INCHES DEVELOPS
NEAR MISSOURI / ILLINOIS.
LOW PRESSURE LOOKS TO CROSS LAKE MICHIGAN THURSDAY NIGHT, WITH
STRONG HIGH PRESSURE DESCENDING FROM WESTERN CANADA INTO THE
DAKOTAS / NEBRASKA INTO FRIDAY. THE PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN
THESE TWO SYSTEMS WILL DRIVE STRONG NORTHWEST WINDS ACROSS THE
LAKE FRIDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT, WITH POTENTIAL FOR GALE FORCE
WINDS.
NEARSHORE ZONES:
BREEZY SOUTHWEST WINDS LATE MONDAY MORNING THROUGH LATE MONDAY
AFTERNOON ARE FORECAST TO FALL JUST SHY OF ADVISORY LEVELS,
WITH GUSTS TO ROUGHLY 20 KT.
ADVISORY CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WEDNESDAY, WITH HIGHER
CONFIDENCE INTO THURSDAY DUE TO STEADY ONSHORE WINDS AND
BUILDING WAVES. GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS (WELL OVER ADVISORY
LEVELS) ARE THEN EXPECTED FRIDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT, WITH
GALES POSSIBLE.
SHEPPARD
MKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
WI...NONE.
LM...NONE.
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