333
FXUS63 KMKX 281831
AFDMKX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MILWAUKEE/SULLIVAN WI
1231 PM CST SAT FEB 28 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- WEST TO EAST BAND OF 1-3 INCHES OF SNOW WITH NARROW SWATH
EXCEEDING 3 INCHES SETTING UP FROM IOWA/SAUK COUNTIES EAST
THROUGH OZAUKEE/NORTHERN MILWAUKEE COUNTIES. LIGHTER SNOW
EXPECT OUTSIDE OF THE BAND.
- GRADUALLY WARMING TREND THROUGH NEXT WEEK WITH PERIODIC
PRECIPITATION CHANCES THROUGH THE END OF NEXT WEEK.
SHORT TERM
ISSUED 1228 PM CST SAT FEB 28 2026
THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT:
AFTER MODELS BOUNCING AROUND, FINALLY SEEING THE BAND OF SNOW
SHOWING ITS CARDS. SEEING THE BAND DEVELOP FROM SAUK COUNTY DOWN
THROUGH KENOSHA EARLY THIS AFTERNOON. EXPECT THIS BAND TO SET MORE
WEST THE EAST THROUGH THE AFTERNOON FROM SAUK/IOWA COUNTIES THROUGH
NORTHERN MILWAUKEE/OZAUKEE COUNTIES. GENERALLY EXPECT THE 1-3 INCH
ACCUMULATIONS TO FALL WITHIN THIS CORRIDOR. GIVEN THE FORCING BEING
850-700MB FRONTOGENESIS BANDING ALONG WITH REPORTS UPSTREAM, COULD
NOT RULE OUT SEEING TOTALS EXCEED 3 INCHES. MAIN CONCERN WITH
THIS BAND WILL BE THE DROPS IN VISIBILITY OF LESS THAN 1 MILE
ALONG WITH QUICK ACCUMULATIONS OF PACKABLE SNOW LEANING TOWARD
THE DRIER SIDE. THUS RESULTING IN SLICK TRAVEL CONDITIONS,
ESPECIALLY FOR ELEVATED AND UNTREATED SURFACES. GIVEN THE BAND
FAIRLY PROGRESSIVE MOVEMENT ALONG WITH TRENDS OF LOWER QPF AS
DRIER ARCTIC AIR PUSHES IN FROM THE NORTH, THINK THAT IS ENOUGH
TO KEEP TOTALS IN THE 1-3 INCH RANGE AND BELOW WINTER WEATHER
ADVISORY LEVEL FOR OUR NECK OF THE WOODS. HOWEVER, STILL CANNOT
RULE OUT A SHORT-FUSED ISSUANCE, ESPECIALLY IF THE BAND SITS
OVER AN AREA LONGER THAN EXPECTED WITH TOTALS NEARING 4 INCHES.
OTHERWISE AREAS ACROSS OUR EAST CENTRAL COUNTIES FROM MARQUETTE
THROUGH SHEBOYGAN MAY STILL SEE SOME LIGHT SNOW, BUT DRIER AIR FOR
THE STRONG ARCTIC HIGH TO THE NORTH WILL LIMIT ACCUMULATING SNOW TOO
FAR NORTH. BUT STILL COULD SEE ACCUMULATIONS GENERALLY AROUND AN
INCH FOR SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE COUNTIES WITH LESS THAN AN INCH
THE FURTHER NORTH YOU GO.
AREAS SOUTH OF THE BAND (SOUTH OF I-94) ARE BIT MORE SATURATED AND
WILL ALSO SEE SOME SNOW ACCUMULATIONS, BUT GENERALLY AROUND AN INCH
OR SO AS THE FORCING REMAINS TO THE NORTH.
EXPECT THE BAND OF FRONTOGENESIS TO WOBBLE THROUGH SOUTHERN WI
THROUGH THE AFTERNOON BEFORE DEPARTING IN THE EVENING AS THE
SHORTWAVE TROUGH LIFTS EAST. HOWEVER, LOOKING TO SEE NORTHEASTERLY
FLOW SET UP OFF OF LAKE MICHIGAN THROUGH THE EVENING AND TONIGHT.
THIS LOOKS BE ENOUGH CONVERGENCE TO FORM A LAKE EFFECT BAND OF SNOW
GIVEN DELTA T'S FROM LAKE MICHIGAN AND TEMPS ALOFT AROUND 13C.
WHILE THIS IS BORDERLINE THRESHOLD FOR LAKE EFFECT SNOW,
ESPECIALLY AS THE SYNOPTIC FORCING SHIFTS EAST, STILL IS A
POTENTIAL TO SEE ADDITIONAL SNOWFALL FOR SOUTHEASTERN WI
THROUGH TONIGHT AND PICKING UP AN ADDITIONAL INCH OR TWO,
DEPENDING ON WHERE/IF THE LES BAND SETS UP.
WAGNER
LONG TERM
ISSUED 1204 AM CST FRI FEB 27 2026
SUNDAY THROUGH SATURDAY:
ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE WILL FINISH BUILDING INTO WISCONSIN ON
SUNDAY, SLIDING EASTWARD AND ALLOWING WINDS TO RETURN TO
SOUTHEASTERLY OVERNIGHT. EXPECTING HIGHS IN THE MID 20S TO NEAR
FREEZING ON SUNDAY, WITH LOWS IN THE MID TEENS OVERNIGHT.
MONDAY, SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW RETURNS AND WINDS INCREASE AS LOW
PRESSURE DEEPENS ACROSS ONTARIO, BRINGING TEMPERATURES BACK INTO
THE UPPER 30S TO LOW 40S. AS LOW PRESSURE OCCLUDES ACROSS THE
HUDSON BAY MONDAY NIGHT, EXPECT ITS TRAILING COLD FRONT TO BEGIN
TO INTERACT WITH EJECTING LOW PRESSURE FROM THE SOUTHERN HIGH
PLAINS, ALLOWING FOR A REGION OF WARM FRONTOGENESIS TO BUILD
ACROSS THE MIDDLE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY AND EXPAND NORTHEASTWARD INTO
SOUTHERN WISCONSIN OVERNIGHT INTO TUESDAY. WITH LOWS EXPECTED TO
BE BELOW FREEZING MONDAY NIGHT, POTENTIAL DEVELOPS FOR WAA ALOFT
TO BRING IN A PERIOD OF FREEZING RAIN AND SLEET AT THE ONSET OF
PRECIPITATION, WITH SNOW TOWARDS CENTRAL WISCONSIN.
IF PHASING BETWEEN THE NORTHERN FRONT AND THE SOUTHERN PLAINS
SYSTEM IS STRONG ENOUGH AS CURRENTLY PORTRAYED ON THE MAJOR
MODELS, SURFACE WAA WILL ALLOW FOR TEMPERATURES TO CLIMB TO NEAR
40 DEGREES ACROSS SOUTHERN WISCONSIN DURING THE DAY TUESDAY,
ALLOWING MOST REGIONS TO TRANSITION TO RAIN OR A RAIN/SNOW MIX.
RAIN AND SNOW WILL TAPER OFF INTO TUESDAY NIGHT AS LOW PRESSURE IN
THE SOUTHERN PLAINS EJECTS EASTWARD AND A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS INTO THE UPPER MIDWEST. EXPECT LOWS IN THE UPPER 20S.
WEDNESDAY, SOME RETURN FLOW FROM THE GULF COAST STATES MAY ALLOW
FOR ADDITIONAL CYCLOGENESIS OVER THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY AS
LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPS IN THE LEE OF THE MONTANA ROCKIES. BETWEEN
THESE TWO FEATURES, GENERAL LIFT MAY DEVELOP ACROSS SOUTHERN
WISCONSIN, BRINGING BACK CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION (20 TO 30%
CHANCE). AS CYCLOGENESIS COMPLETES AND THE RESULTANT LOW
PROGRESSES NORTHEASTWARD, MORE WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION IS
POSSIBLE WEDNESDAY NIGHT (50-60%). WITH TEMPERATURES EXPECTED TO
REMAIN JUST ABOVE FREEZING THROUGHOUT THE OVERNIGHT TIME PERIOD,
EXPECTING PRIMARILY RAIN WITH A FEW SNOWFLAKES MIXING IN TOWARD
CENTRAL WISCONSIN.
ACTIVE PATTERN REMAINS IN PLACE THROUGH THURSDAY AND INTO FRIDAY AS
LOW PRESSURE EJECTS FROM MONTANA THROUGH THE UPPER MIDWEST.
TIMING AND INTENSITY REMAINS IN QUESTION ACROSS MODELS, AS
MULTIPLE SHORTWAVES EMBEDDED IN THE MEAN FLOW MAY PHASE WITH THE
PRIMARY LOW AND INTENSIFY IT AT VARIOUS POINTS IN ITS DEVELOPMENT.
GENERAL POPS IN THE 20-40% RANGE CONTINUE THROUGH SATURDAY DUE TO
THESE UNCERTAINTIES. HOWEVER, CONFIDENCE IS HIGH IN THIS PERIOD
PRIMARILY BEING FOCUSED ON RAIN AND PERHAPS A FEW THUNDERSTORMS.
MH
AVIATION
ISSUED 1228 PM CST SAT FEB 28 2026
WEST TO EAST ORIENTATED BAND OF SNOW IS SETTING UP ACROSS
SOUTHERN WI THIS AFTERNOON BRINGING LOWER VISIBILITY (LESS THAN
1SM) AND CEILINGS (1-3KFT) WHERE THE SNOW RATES (AROUND A 0.5
IN/HR OR MORE AT TIMES) ARE HEAVIEST. EXPECT THE HEAVIEST BAND
WITH THE GREATEST FLIGHT RESTRICTION TO SET UP FROM DLL/LNR
EASTWARD THROUGH MSN AND JUST NORTH OF UES/MKE. 1-3 INCHES OF
ACCUMULATION EXPECTED WITHIN THIS BAND THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AND
COULD SEE POCKETS OF LOCALLY HIGHER TOTALS EXCEEDING 3 INCHES
WITH IN THIS BAND. THIS TYPE OF BANDED SNOW CAN WOBBLE AND MAY
SEE IT ACTUALLY SHIFT SOUTH AN IMPACT MORE OF UES AND MKE.
OTHERWISE OUTSIDE OF THE MODERATE/HEAVY BAND WILL STILL SEE
LIGHT SNOW WITH LOWER CEILING TO AROUND MVFR ALONG WITH REDUCED
VISIBILITIES AROUND 4-6SM AND ACCUMULATIONS UP TO AN INCH. WILL
SEE THE SNOW BAND WORK ITS WAY THROUGH SOUTHERN WI THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON AND GRADUALLY DEPART TO THE EAST THROUGH THE EVENING
WITH SOME LINGERING MVFR CEILINGS TOWARD THE LAKESHORE
TERMINALS. ALSO COULD SEE SOME ADDITIONAL SNOW FOR MKE AND ENW
AS A POTENTIAL FOR A LIGHT LAKE EFFECT SNOW BAND SETS UP THIS
EVENING INTO TONIGHT. ENW HAS THE BETTER POTENTIAL TO BE
IMPACTED BY THIS ADDITIONAL BAND, BUT STILL SOME UNCERTAINTY ON
WHERE AND IF IT WILL SET UP IN SOUTHEAST WI. OTHERWISE, HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS IN OVERNIGHT BRINGING DRIER CONDITIONS,
IMPROVING CEILINGS AND LIGHTER WINDS THAT WILL CONTINUE INTO
SUNDAY. WAGNER
MARINE
ISSUED 549 AM CST FRI FEB 27 2026
GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS EARLY THIS MORNING WILL BECOME NORTH TO
NORTHEAST AND MODERATE TODAY INTO TONIGHT, AS STRONG HIGH
PRESSURE AROUND 30.7 INCHES BUILDS INTO THE UPPER MIDWEST. THIS
HIGH WILL GRADUALLY SLIDE EAST SUNDAY INTO MONDAY. EXPECT
LIGHTER WINDS SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY NIGHT, BEFORE BECOMING SOUTH TO
SOUTHEAST ON MONDAY INTO MONDAY NIGHT. WINDS MAY THEN BECOME
NORTHEAST TO EAST TOWARD THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.
FOR THE NEARSHORE WATERS, WAVES MAY REACH SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
LEVELS AT TIMES LATER TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY MORNING SOUTH OF NORTH
POINT LIGHTHOUSE, AND AGAIN MONDAY AFTERNOON INTO TUESDAY NORTH
OF PORT WASHINGTON. WAVES MAY REACH SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY LEVELS
AGAIN WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY.
WOOD
MKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
WI...NONE.
LM...NONE.
VISIT US AT WEATHER.GOV/MILWAUKEE
FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK, X, AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSMILWAUKEE
WWW.X.COM/NWSMILWAUKEE
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSMILWAUKEE
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.
Main Text Page