237
FXUS63 KMKX 091032
AFDMKX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MILWAUKEE/SULLIVAN WI
432 AM CST TUE DEC 9 2025
KEY MESSAGES
- PATCHY FREEZING DRIZZLE MAY LINGER THIS MORNING.
- A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT FOR PORTIONS OF
SOUTHERN WISCONSIN FOR SNOW ACCUMULATIONS AS WELL AS THE
POTENTIAL FOR SOME FREEZING RAIN. THIS WILL BRING IMPACTS TO
TRAVEL TUESDAY EVENING INTO EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING.
- ADDITIONAL ROUNDS OF LIGHT SNOWFALL ARE THEN POSSIBLE AT TIMES
LATER THURSDAY THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
- BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES CONTINUE THROUGH NEXT WEEKEND, WITH
WIND CHILLS AS COLD AS -15 TO -25 DEGREES FRIDAY AND SATURDAY
NIGHT.
SHORT TERM
ISSUED 432 AM CST TUE DEC 9 2025
TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY:
LEFT A MENTION OF FREEZING DRIZZLE IN THE FORECAST THIS MORNING
BASED ON WEAK REFLECTIVITIES ON RADAR AND SOME LOWER
VISIBILITIES TO THE WEST. CONFIDENCE IS LOW THOUGH, GIVEN VERY
FEW UPSTREAM OBSERVATIONS WITH PRECIPITATION.
ATTENTION THEN TURNS TO A MORE POTENT LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM THAT
IS EXPECTED TO ZIP THROUGH THE REGION LATER TODAY INTO
WEDNESDAY, WITH THE LOW EXPECTED TO MOVE THROUGH THE FAR
NORTHERN FORECAST AREA. AMPLE WARM ADVECTION AND FRONTOGENESIS
ALOFT WILL LEAD TO A ROUND OF PRECIP AHEAD OF THE LOW, WITH A
SHOWERY SETUP UNDER THE LOW AS IT MOVES THROUGH, THEN SOME
ADDITIONAL PRECIP ON THE BACK SIDED OF THE LOW. THE LEADING
ROUND OF PRECIP AS WELL AS THE PRECIP NORTH OF THE LOW AND
BEHIND THE LOW WILL BE PRIMARILY SNOW. WILL LIKELY SEE A MIX OF
RAIN/SNOW OR EVEN ALL RAIN FOR A TIME UNDER AND TO THE SOUTH OF
THE LOW. ADDITIONALLY THERE IS A CHANCE THAT FREEZING RAIN
COULD MIX IN WITH THE SNOW INITIALLY ACROSS WEST AND SOUTHWEST
PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA. SEVERAL MODELS SHOW SURFACE TEMPS
WARMING UP AT THE SAME RATE AS TEMPS IN THE LOWEST COUPLE
THOUSAND FEET THOUGH, WHICH WOULD SUGGEST MAINLY A SNOW TO RAIN
TRANSITION. SO, CONFIDENCE ISN'T PARTICULARLY HIGH IN THE
FREEZING RAIN POTENTIAL AT THIS TIME.
GIVEN THE CURRENT EXPECTED LOW TRACK, KEPT THE NORTHERN FORECAST
AREA IN A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FOR THE SNOW TOTAL POTENTIAL
OF 2 TO 5 INCHES. THOUGH RAIN COULD BRIEFLY MIX IN EVEN IN
NORTHERN AREAS, THE WARMER PERIOD WOULD BE SHORT LIVED, WITH
SOME SNOW MOVING BACK IN BEHIND THE LOW. A FEW COUNTIES FARTHER
SOUTHWEST WERE ADDED TO THE ADVISORY DUE TO THE INITIAL BURST
OF SNOW (THOUGH TOTALS WILL BE LOWER) AS WELL AS THE ABOVE
MENTIONED POTENTIAL FOR A LITTLE FREEZING RAIN. THOUGH WINDS
WILL BE GUSTY DURING THIS SYSTEM, THE SNOW WILL BE WETTER,
LIMITING ANY BLOWING OR DRIFTING.
A LINGERING CONCERN WITH THIS SYSTEM IS THAT FACT THAT MODELS
STILL VARY WITH THE TRACK OF THE LOW, WITH A COUPLE SHORT TERM
MODELS TAKING THE LOW QUITE A BIT FARTHER NORTH. THESE MODELS
ARE NORTH OF PRETTY MUCH ALL OF THE ECMWF, GFS, AND CANADIAN
ENSEMBLE MEMBER LOW TRACKS, SO NOT PUTTING MUCH WEIGHT IN THEM
AT THIS MOMENT. THE LARGE SCALE MODELS INITIALIZED THE LOW
POSITION NORTH OF MONTANA PRETTY WELL THIS MORNING. THESE LOW
TRACK DIFFERENCES ARE WORTH WATCHING THOUGH, AS THERE IS A
FAIRLY TIGHT GRADIENT WITH EXPECTED PRECIP TYPES AND TOTALS. A
WIGGLE NORTH WOULD PUSH THE HIGHER NOW TOTALS OUT OF THE
FORECAST AREA, BUT A WIGGLE SOUTH WOULD BRING THEM FARTHER INTO
THE FORECAST AREA.
ANY LINGERING SNOW WEDNESDAY SHOULD WIND DOWN BY EARLY AFTERNOON,
WITH DECREASING CLOUDS EXPECTED OVERNIGHT.
DDV
LONG TERM
ISSUED 432 AM CST TUE DEC 9 2025
WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY:
COLDER TEMPERATURES WILL PUSH INTO THE REGION WEDNESDAY NIGHT
THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK, AS MULTIPLE SHORTWAVES MOVE
THROUGH, POSSIBLY ALSO BRINGING A LITTLE LIGHT SNOW AT TIMES. BY
THIS WEEKEND, HIGH TEMPERATURES MAY NOT GET OUT OF THE SINGLE
DIGITS MOST PLACES. OVERNIGHT WIND CHILLS THIS WEEKEND MAY DIP
AS LOW AS -25. TEMPS WILL THEN SLOWLY RECOVER EARLY NEXT WEEK,
BUT WILL REMAIN WELL BELOW NORMAL.
DDV
AVIATION
ISSUED 432 AM CST TUE DEC 9 2025
LEFT A MENTION OF FREEZING DRIZZLE IN THE FORECAST THIS MORNING
BASED ON WEAK REFLECTIVITIES ON RADAR AND SOME LOWER
VISIBILITIES TO THE WEST. CONFIDENCE IS LOW THOUGH, GIVEN VERY
FEW UPSTREAM OBSERVATIONS WITH PRECIPITATION.
WIDESPREAD PRECIP IS THEN EXPECTED TO MOVE IN BY EARLY THIS
EVENING, WITH MAINLY SNOW FOR THE FIRST ROUND. COULD SEE SOME
FREEZING RAIN MIX IN FROM THE MADISON AREA WESTWARD AND TO THE
SOUTH, THOUGH CONFIDENCE IS NOT HIGH IN THE FREEZING RAIN
POTENTIAL. SNOW WILL LIKELY TRANSITION TO RAIN FROM NORTH TO
SOUTH FROM MID-EVENING INTO EARLY TONIGHT, POSSIBLY REMAINING A
RAIN/SNOW MIX OR MAINLY SNOW IN THE FAR NORTH TOWARDS FOND DU
LAC AND SHEBOYGAN. THE PRECIP WILL THEN TRANSITION BACK TO
LIGHTER SNOW FROM NORTH TO SOUTH THE REMAINDER OF THE NIGHT,
WITH LIGHT SNOW LINGERING INTO WEDNESDAY.
BREEZY WINDS ARE EXPECTED DURING THIS SYSTEM, THOUGH THE SNOW
WILL BE WETTER, THUS LIMITING THE BLOWING/DRIFTING POTENTIAL.
COULD SEE SOME MORE LOW LEVEL WIND SHEAR TONIGHT, THOUGH SURFACE
WINDS MAY BE HIGH ENOUGH TO LIMIT THE POTENTIAL FOR SHEAR. LOWER
CEILINGS ARE LIKELY THROUGH THIS EVENT, WITH SOME LOWER
VISIBILITIES DURING THE PERIODS OF SNOWFALL.
IT IS WORTH NOTING THAT THERE REMAINS SOME UNCERTAINTY WITH THE
LOW TRACK, WHICH COULD IMPACT PRECIP TYPES AND TOTALS IF THE
LOW DEVIATES FROM THE CURRENT EXPECTED TRACK.
DDV
MARINE
ISSUED 432 AM CST TUE DEC 9 2025
LOW PRESSURE AROUND 29.7 INCHES OVER LAKE SUPERIOR THIS MORNING
HAS BROUGHT SOUTHWEST GALES TO THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE LAKE
WITH GALE WARNING IN EFFECT UNTIL 12Z THIS MORNING. THE WINDS
WILL GRADUALLY WEAKEN OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS TO BELOW GALE
FORCE.
A MUCH STRONGER LOW AROUND 29.2 INCHES WILL THEN TRACK FROM
MINNESOTA ACROSS SOUTHERN LAKE MI AND INTO LOWER MI TONIGHT.
SOUTHWEST TO WESTERLY GALES WILL DEVELOP AHEAD OF THE LOW OVER
THE SOUTHERN THIRD OF THE LAKE TONIGHT, FOLLOWED BY THE POTENTIAL
FOR NORTHWEST TO NORTHERLY GALES ON WEDNESDAY AFTER THE LOW
PASSES. THE NORTHWEST GALES WILL BRING MORE WIDESPREAD GALES
ACROSS THE SOUTHERN TWO THIRDS OF THE LAKE. A GALE WARNING IS NOW
IN EFFECT FOR THE SOUTH THIRD STARTING MID EVENING TONIGHT AND
STARTING FOR THE CENTRAL THIRD EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING (11Z). THE
BRISK WINDS WILL THEN GRADUALLY DIMINISH WEDNESDAY NIGHT. A
PERIOD OF NORTHWESTERLY GALES MAY THEN RETURN FRIDAY NIGHT INTO
SATURDAY AS A STRONG ARCTIC FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES
REGION. HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY MAY DEVELOP.
DDV
MKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
WI...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY...WIZ046-WIZ047-WIZ051-WIZ052-WIZ056-
WIZ057-WIZ058-WIZ059-WIZ060-WIZ062-WIZ063-WIZ067-
WIZ068...6 PM TUESDAY TO 6 AM WEDNESDAY.
LM...GALE WARNING...LMZ080-LMZ673-LMZ675-LMZ777-LMZ779-LMZ874-
LMZ876-LMZ878...9 PM TUESDAY TO 6 PM WEDNESDAY.
GALE WARNING...LMZ261-LMZ362-LMZ364-LMZ366-LMZ563-LMZ565-
LMZ567-LMZ868 UNTIL 6 AM TUESDAY.
GALE WARNING...LMZ366-LMZ565-LMZ567-LMZ669-LMZ671-LMZ868-
LMZ870-LMZ872...5 AM WEDNESDAY TO 6 PM WEDNESDAY.
GALE WARNING...LMZ643-LMZ644...6 AM WEDNESDAY TO NOON
WEDNESDAY.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY...LMZ643-LMZ644-LMZ645-LMZ646 UNTIL NOON
TUESDAY.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY...LMZ643-LMZ644...6 PM TUESDAY TO 6 AM
WEDNESDAY.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY...LMZ645-LMZ646...6 PM TUESDAY TO 9 PM
WEDNESDAY.
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