829
FXUS63 KMKX 031859
AFDMKX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MILWAUKEE/SULLIVAN WI
159 PM CDT SAT OCT 3 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- FEW SPRINKLES OR LIGHT SHOWERS MAINLY NORTH OF I-94 TONIGHT,
WITH OTHERWISE DRY WEATHER INTO NEXT WEEK.
- ADDITIONAL PATCHY FROST POSSIBLE SUNDAY NIGHT & MONDAY NIGHT.
SHORT TERM
ISSUED 200 PM CDT SAT OCT 3 2026
TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT:
HIGH PRESSURE WILL PUSH OUT TONIGHT WITH A WEAK LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM AND ASSOCIATED FRONT PULLING THROUGH. THIS WILL BE
COINCIDENT WITH A FAIRLY STRONG SHORTWAVE ALOFT WITH DECENT
MOISTURE AND JUST ENOUGH LOW TO MIDLEVEL MOISTURE (WITH SOME
WAA) TO BRING PRECIP CHANCES TO THE REGION OVERNIGHT.
SPECIFICALLY LOW TO MIDLEVEL MOISTURE IS BETTER FURTHER NORTH
AND THUS CHANCES ARE BEST IN THE NORTHERN PARTS OF THE CWA
TOWARD CENTRAL WI WITH LESSENING CHANCES AS YOU MOVE SOUTH.
TRENDS HAVE SHIFTED TOWARD NORTHERN PARTS OF THE AREA AT LEAST
SEEING SOME PRECIP THOUGH IT SHOULD BE CLOSELY ASSOCIATED WITH
THE FRONT AND THUS BRIEF/TRANSIENT. THE FRONT MAY LINGER INTO
SUNDAY MORNING BEFORE PUSHING OUT BUT THE HIGH PRESSURE TO THE
WEST WILL BE NUDGING IN WITH QUIET CONDITIONS RETURNING ACROSS
THE CWA. WHILE THE REGION ALOFT WOULD APPEAR PRIMED FOR
SHORTWAVES, MODELS GENERALLY KEEPING THINGS QUIET THROUGH MONDAY
NIGHT.
KUROSKI
LONG TERM
ISSUED 200 PM CDT SAT OCT 3 2026
TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY:
OVERALL THE EXTENDED PERIOD LOOK VERY QUIET WITH THE PATTERN
REMAINING FAIRLY MERIDIONAL WITH WEAK TROUGHING TO THE EAST AND
WEAK RIDGING TO THE WEST. IT REMAINS VERY STAGNANT PATTERN
OVERALL. WHILE THIS TYPE OF PATTERN WOULD GENERALLY LEAD TO SOME
ACTIVITY ALOFT IN THE SHORTWAVE DEPARTMENT, MODELS KEEPING
THINGS LARGELY QUIET. AT THE SURFACE, A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL
SWING ACROSS THE NORTHERN GREAT LAKES TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY
DRAGGING A FRONT ACROSS THE REGION, BUT THIS FRONT (AT THIS
TIME) LOOKS QUIET DRY WITH LIMITED MOISTURE IN THE LOW TO MID
LEVELS. THE FRONT MAY CARRY A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR PRECIP TUESDAY
NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING BUT FORCING WILL BE LIMITED IN
ADDITION TO LIMITED MOISTURE.
WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL WORK BACK INTO THE REGION LATE WEDNESDAY
THROUGH THURSDAY LIKELY KEEPING THE AREA DRY. THEN INTO FRIDAY
IS WHERE WE SEE INCREASED MODEL DIVERGENCE WITH A FEW MODELS
POINTING TOWARD SOME INTRODUCTION OF PRECIP CHANCES ATTACHED TO
A WARM FRONT. HOWEVER, MODELS DIFFER GREATLY ON THE EXTENT OF
THE LOW PRESSURE TO THE WEST AND THE POTENTIAL FOR IT TO EXTEND
TOWARD THE GREAT LAKES. IN ANY CASE IT IS SOMETHING TO MONITOR
THOUGH CHANCES OVERALL REMAIN SLIM. WE WILL BE MONITORING A
POTENTIAL BREAK IN THE PATTERN INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.
OTHERWISE, RELATIVELY COOL CONDITIONS EXPECTED OVERALL WITH
POTENTIAL FOR PATCHY FROST IN SPOTS OVER THE NEXT WEEK.
KUROSKI
AVIATION
ISSUED 200 PM CDT SAT OCT 3 2026
MOSTLY QUIET WEATHER WILL LEAD TO LIMITED CONCERNS FOR AVIATION
THE ONLY MILD CONCERN IS THE BRIEF CHANCE FOR RAIN TONIGHT AS A
FRONT PASSES THROUGH. PERHAPS A BRIEF VSBY REDUCTION TOWARD
CENTRAL WI BUT MUCH OF THE REGION MAY BE DRY OR JUST SEE SOME
VERY LIGHT SHOWERS. OTHERWISE VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD WITH WINDS TURNING FROM SOUTH TO
NORTHWEST FOLLOWING THE PASSAGE OF THE COLD FRONT.
KUROSKI
MARINE
ISSUED 200 PM CDT SAT OCT 3 2026
30.3 INCH HIGH PRESSURE OVER EASTERN GREAT LAKES HAS BROUGHT
STEADILY INCREASING SOUTH TO SOUTHEAST WINDS OVER THE LAKE AS THE
LOW PRESSURE AROUND 29.9 INCHES TO THE WEST IMPINGES ON THE THE
HIGH PRESSURE. WINDS WILL THEN TREND SOUTH- SOUTHWESTERLY THIS
EVENING AS 29.8 INCH LOW PRESSURE MOVES TOWARD THE HUDSON BAY FROM
THE CANADIAN PRAIRIES. THE LOW PRESSURE WILL PULL A COLD FRONT
ACROSS THE WATERS TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY, BRINGING A WEST- NORTHWEST
WIND SHIFT. SHOWERS COULD ACCOMPANY THE PASSING FRONT,
PARTICULARLY ACROSS THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE WATERS. NORTHWEST
WINDS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE DAY MONDAY, TAPERING MONDAY NIGHT
AS 30.2 INCH HIGH PRESSURE MOVES IN FROM THE NORTHERN GREAT
PLAINS.
A DEEPER AREA OF 29.4 INCH LOW PRESSURE WILL BUILD TOWARD THE
HUDSON BAY TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY. SOUTH-SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL
INCREASE IN ADVANCE OF THE APPROACHING LOW TUESDAY AFTERNOON
THROUGH WEDNESDAY, BECOMING GUSTY AT TIMES. A FEW GUSTS COULD
APPROACH GALE-FORCE, PARTICULARLY OVER THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE
OPEN WATERS. WILL BE MONITORING FOR POSSIBLE HEADLINES AS THIS
PORTION OF THE PERIOD DRAWS CLOSER. THE LOW WILL PULL A COLD FRONT
ACROSS THE WATERS WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY, BRINGING A WEST-
NORTHWEST WIND SHIFT AND SCATTERED RAIN SHOWERS. BEST POTENTIAL
FOR RAIN IS CURRENTLY FAVORED OVER THE NORTHERN THIRD OF THE OPEN
WATERS. GENERALLY WESTERLY WINDS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH FRIDAY AS
30.1 INCH HIGH PRESSURE MOVES NEAR OR JUST SOUTH OF LAKE
MICHIGAN.
KUROSKI
MKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
WI...NONE.
LM...NONE.
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