398  
FXUS63 KMKX 091955  
AFDMKX  
 
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION  
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MILWAUKEE/SULLIVAN WI  
155 PM CST MON DEC 9 2019  
   
SHORT TERM
 
 
REST OF THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT - CONFIDENCE...MEDIUM  
MOST INTENSE PORTION OF SNOW BAND HAS RESULTED IN MUCH MORE IMPACT  
TO OUR SOUTHWEST IN IA WHERE SQW WAS ISSUED. WILL KEEP GOING  
ADVISORY IN PLACE AS THIS BAND WORKS THROUGH, HOWEVER SOME  
DECREASE IN REFLECTIVITIES NOTED IN PARTS OF THE BAND HEADING INTO  
SC WI. THIS BAND WILL EXIT QUICKLY TO THE EAST LATE THIS AFTERNOON  
OR VERY EARLY THIS EVENING WITH MAIN STORY BECOMING POTENT COLD  
AIR ADVECTION ALONG WITH EVOLVING REFREEZE POTENTIAL. MILD ROAD  
SURFACE TEMPS WILL GRADUALLY LOWER TO SUBFREEZING VALUES AS THIS  
COLDER AIRMASS TAKES HOLD OVERNIGHT. SO WILL BE MESSAGING THE  
REFREEZE IDEA WITH THE ARRIVAL OF THIS MUCH COLDER AIRMASS.  
 
TUESDAY - CONFIDENCE...MEDIUM TO HIGH  
COLD AIRMASS WILL DOMINATE WITH BUFKIT SHOWING CONSIDERABLE DRYING  
WITHIN THE COLUMN. MID LEVEL FLOW REMAINS BROADLY CYCLONIC.  
WEST/NORTHWEST WINDS WILL PREVAIL WITH THE VERY COLD AND DRY AIR  
IN PLACE.  
 

 
   
LONG TERM
 
 
TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY - CONFIDENCE...HIGH  
ARCTIC AIR WILL MAKE ITS WAY INTO THE REGION TUESDAY NIGHT WITH  
TEMPERATURES DROPPING INTO THE SINGLE DIGITS AND WIND CHILLS BELOW  
ZERO. HIGHS WEDNESDAY WILL MAINLY BE IN THE TEENS. THURSDAY AN  
APPROACHING SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL HELP BRING WARMER TEMPERATURES  
AS WINDS SHIFT TO THE SOUTH. WARM AIR ADVECTION MAY PROVIDE ENOUGH  
LIFT FOR A FEW SNOW SHOWERS, BUT THE BEST CHANCE WILL BE NORTH OF  
OUR FORECAST AREA. TEMPERATURES THURSDAY WILL BE IN THE UPPER 20S  
TO LOW 30S.  
 
THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY - CONFIDENCE...MEDIUM  
AN ACTIVE PATTERN SETS UP FOR THE END OF THE WEEK WITH MULTIPLE  
SHORTWAVES MOVING THROUGH. TIMING OF THESE WAVES WILL DETERMINE  
PRECIPITATION TYPE AS TEMPERATURES DURING THE DAY ARE EXPECTED TO  
BE ABOVE FREEZING. AS WE GET CLOSER CONFIDENCE IS EXPECTED TO  
INCREASE. THERE IS AGREEMENT THAT SUNDAY WILL BE DRY, BEFORE RAIN  
AND SNOW CHANCES RETURN.  
 

 
   
AVIATION(21Z TAFS)
 
BAND OF SNOW EXITS TO THE EAST BY 23Z.  
WIDESPREAD IFR/LIFR CONDITIONS AHEAD OF ARCTIC FRONT WILL  
TRANSITION TO MVFR OVERNIGHT WITH NORTHWEST WINDS/COLD AIR  
ADVECTION TAKING HOLD AND CONTINUING INTO TUESDAY. EXPECT SOME  
SUNSHINE WITH OVERALL DRY COLUMN THOUGH SOME CU POSSIBLE WITH  
BROAD MID LEVEL CYCLONIC FLOW PERSISTING.  
 

 
   
MARINE
 
STRONG NORTHWEST WINDS WILL DEVELOP BEHIND A COLD FRONT  
AND WILL PERSIST OVERNIGHT TONIGHT. GOING SMALL CRAFT AND GALE  
WARNING LOOKS GOOD. THE ARRIVAL OF A MUCH COLDER AIRMASS WILL  
LEAD TO FREEZING SPRAY AT TIMES THROUGH MID-WEEK.  
 

 
   
MKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
 
 
WI...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 3 PM CST THIS AFTERNOON FOR WIZ046-  
047-056-057-062-063-067-068.  
 
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 5 PM CST THIS AFTERNOON FOR WIZ051-  
052-058>060-064>066-069>072.  
 
LM...GALE WARNING FROM 6 PM THIS EVENING TO 2 AM CST TUESDAY FOR  
LMZ080-675-777-779-876-878.  
 
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM CST TUESDAY FOR LMZ643>646.  
 

 
 

 
 
TONIGHT/TUESDAY AND AVIATION/MARINE...COLLAR  
TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY...RAR  
 
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