979
FXUS63 KMKX 161937
AFDMKX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MILWAUKEE/SULLIVAN WI
237 PM CDT FRI OCT 16 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- BLUSTERY NORTH WINDS GUSTING TO 40 MPH WILL LINGER THIS
AFTERNOON, MAINLY NEAR THE LAKESHORE.
- HIGH-END GALE FORCE WINDS ARE EXPECTED OVER LAKE MICHIGAN
THROUGH THIS EVENING. A FEW WATERSPOUTS MAY OCCUR AS WELL,
MAINLY OVER SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE LAKE.
- TEMPERATURES TO DROP INTO THE UPPER 20S TO AROUND 30 INLAND
LATER TONIGHT INTO EARLY SATURDAY MORNING. A FREEZE WARNING IS
IN EFFECT FOR MOST AREAS, WITH A FROST ADVISORY IN FAR
SOUTHEAST WISCONSIN NEAR LAKE MICHIGAN.
- SOUTHWEST GALES MAY OCCUR SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY NIGHT
OVER FAR NORTHERN PORTIONS OF LAKE MICHIGAN. WINDS AND WAVES
MAY REACH SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY LEVELS FOR THE NEARSHORE WATERS
SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY NIGHT.
SHORT TERM
ISSUED 237 PM CDT FRI OCT 16 2026
TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT:
SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS WILL LINGER THIS AFTERNOON, AS
THE BACKSIDE OF THE SOUTHEASTWARD-MOVING 500 MB SHORTWAVE TROUGH
SHIFTS THROUGH THE REGION. FORECAST SOUNDINGS ARE SATURATED IN
THE LOW LEVELS, WITH STEEP LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES AND LOW
FREEZING LEVELS AROUND 3000 TO 4000 FEET AGL. THUS, SOME GRAUPEL
MAY OCCUR AT TIMES WITH THESE SHOWERS.
THIS ACTIVITY SHOULD GRADUALLY DISSIPATE BY LATE AFTERNOON AND
EARLY EVENING, AS DRIER AIR MOVES INTO THE AREA VIA COLD AIR
ADVECTION ON THE GUSTY NORTH WINDS. SOME NORTHERLY GUSTS TO 40
MPH MAY ALSO OCCUR MAINLY NEAR THE LAKE THIS AFTERNOON, WITH THE
GOOD LOW LEVEL MIXING WITH THE STEEP LAPSE RATES.
SKIES SHOULD GRADUALLY CLEAR OUT TONIGHT, AS THE 500 MB TROUGH
SHIFTS SOUTHEAST AND AN AXIS OF SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE SHIFTS
INTO THE REGION. THIS SHOULD ALSO BRING WEAKENING WINDS,
BECOMING LIGHT AND VARIABLE OVERNIGHT INTO EARLY SATURDAY
MORNING. THIS SHOULD ALLOW FOR LOW TEMPERATURES TO DROP INTO THE
UPPER 20S TO AROUND 30 DEGREES OVER MOST OF THE AREA, WITH LOWER
30S FOR FAR SOUTHEAST WISCONSIN NEAR LAKE MICHIGAN.
THUS, KEPT THE FREEZE WARNING AND FROST ADVISORY GOING AS IS
FOR LATER TONIGHT INTO EARLY SATURDAY MORNING. IT MAY GET INTO
THE MIDDLE 20S TOWARD NORTHWEST PARTS OF THE AREA. COVER OR
BRING INDOORS ANY SENSITIVE PLANTS.
THE HIGH WILL GRADUALLY SHIFT SOUTHEAST OF THE REGION SATURDAY
INTO SUNDAY NIGHT, WITH SOUTHWEST WINDS DEVELOPING. NORTHWEST
FLOW AT 500 MB WILL BECOME MORE ZONAL DURING THIS PERIOD AS
WELL. THIS SHOULD ALLOW FOR DRY CONDITIONS THIS WEEKEND, WITH
TEMPERATURES MODERATING FROM THE MIDDLE 50S SATURDAY TO THE
LOWER TO MIDDLE 60S SUNDAY. LOWS IN THE MIDDLE TO UPPER 30S ARE
FORECAST FOR SATURDAY NIGHT, BUT THE SOUTHWEST WINDS SHOULD
REMAIN HIGH ENOUGH TO LIMIT MOST FROST POTENTIAL.
WOOD
LONG TERM
ISSUED 237 PM CDT FRI OCT 16 2026
MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY:
500 MB CLUSTER ANALYSIS GENERALLY SHOWS AN ANOMALOUS 500 MB
RIDGE DEVELOPING SOMEWHERE OVER THE UPPER MIDWEST OR WESTERN
GREAT LAKES REGIONS BY THE MIDDLE TO LATER PORTIONS OF NEXT
WEEK. THIS SHOULD ALLOW FOR THE SURFACE HIGH TO GRADUALLY SHIFT
EAST NORTHEAST OF THE REGION DURING THIS PERIOD, KEEPING
GENERALLY SOUTHERLY WINDS OVER THE AREA. THIS SHOULD RESULT IN
STEADY WARMING OF TEMPERATURES DURING THE WEEK, WITH ENSEMBLE
MEMBERS SUPPORTING HIGHS WELL INTO THE 60S TO AROUND 70 DEGREES
BY TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY, PERHAPS INTO THE LOWER 70S INLAND
THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY. ENSEMBLE MEMBERS ALSO SHOW A DRY PERIOD
FOR MOST OF THE WEEK.
WOOD
AVIATION
ISSUED 237 PM CDT FRI OCT 16 2026
SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS WILL LINGER THIS AFTERNOON, AND
SOME GRAUPEL MAY OCCUR AT TIMES WITH THESE SHOWERS. THIS
ACTIVITY SHOULD GRADUALLY DISSIPATE BY LATE AFTERNOON AND EARLY
EVENING, AS DRIER AIR MOVES INTO THE AREA ON GUSTY NORTH WINDS.
SKIES SHOULD GRADUALLY CLEAR OUT TONIGHT, AS AN AXIS OF SURFACE
HIGH PRESSURE SHIFTS INTO THE REGION. THIS SHOULD ALSO BRING
WEAKENING WINDS, BECOMING LIGHT AND VARIABLE OVERNIGHT INTO
EARLY SATURDAY MORNING. TEMPERATURES NEAR TO BELOW FREEZING ARE
EXPECTED OVERNIGHT INTO EARLY SATURDAY MORNING.
THE HIGH WILL GRADUALLY SHIFT SOUTHEAST OF THE REGION SATURDAY
INTO SUNDAY NIGHT, WITH SOUTHWEST WINDS DEVELOPING. THIS SHOULD
ALLOW FOR DRY CONDITIONS THIS WEEKEND. SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL
DEVELOP ON SATURDAY, WITH SOME GUSTS NEAR 20 KNOTS IN THE
AFTERNOON. THESE WINDS SHOULD LINGER INTO SUNDAY AND BECOME MORE
GUSTY.
WOOD
MARINE
ISSUED 237 PM CDT FRI OCT 16 2026
LOW PRESSURE AROUND 29.4 INCHES WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE WELL EAST
OF THE REGION TONIGHT, AS STRONG HIGH PRESSURE AROUND 30.6
INCHES REMAINS OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS. NORTH GALES ARE EXPECTED
TO LINGER INTO THIS EVENING ACROSS LAKE MICHIGAN, BEFORE
TAPERING OFF LATER TONIGHT.
A GALE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR ALL OF THE OPEN WATERS OF
LAKE MICHIGAN UNTIL 1 AM CDT SATURDAY MORNING, AND UNTIL 10 PM
CDT THIS EVENING FOR THE NEARSHORE WATERS. A SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY WILL BE NEEDED AFTER THE GALE WARNING EXPIRES INTO
LATER TONIGHT, FOR LINGERING GUSTY NORTH WINDS AND ELEVATED
WAVES.
SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS WILL LINGER INTO THIS EVENING
ACROSS THE LAKE, WITH A FEW THUNDERSTORMS AND A WATERSPOUT
POSSIBLE OVER THE SOUTH HALF OF LAKE MICHIGAN.
AS THE HIGH SHIFTS TOWARD THE OHIO RIVER VALLEY ON SATURDAY,
STRONG LOW PRESSURE AROUND 29.0 INCHES WILL DEVELOP IN SOUTH
CENTRAL CANADA, SHIFTING TOWARD AND INTO HUDSON BAY ON SUNDAY.
THIS MAY BRING SOUTHWEST GALES TO FAR NORTHERN PORTIONS OF LAKE
MICHIGAN SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY NIGHT.
HIGH PRESSURE AROUND 30.5 INCHES SHOULD DEVELOP EAST NORTHEAST
OF THE REGION NEXT WEEK, BRINGING DRY CONDITIONS AND LIGHT TO
MODEST WINDS.
WOOD
MKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
WI...FREEZE WARNING...WIZ046-WIZ047-WIZ051-WIZ052-WIZ056-WIZ057-
WIZ058-WIZ059-WIZ062-WIZ063-WIZ064-WIZ065-WIZ067-WIZ068-
WIZ069-WIZ070...1 AM SATURDAY TO 9 AM SATURDAY.
FROST ADVISORY...WIZ060-WIZ066-WIZ071-WIZ072...1 AM SATURDAY
TO 9 AM SATURDAY.
LM...GALE WARNING...LMZ080-LMZ261-LMZ362-LMZ364-LMZ366-LMZ563-
LMZ565-LMZ567-LMZ669-LMZ671-LMZ673-LMZ675-LMZ777-LMZ779-
LMZ868-LMZ870-LMZ872-LMZ874-LMZ876-LMZ878 UNTIL 1 AM
SATURDAY.
GALE WARNING...LMZ643-LMZ644-LMZ645-LMZ646 UNTIL 10 PM FRIDAY.
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