744  
FXUS63 KMKX 220742  
AFDMKX  
 
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION  
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MILWAUKEE/SULLIVAN WI  
242 AM CDT WED OCT 22 2025  
   
KEY MESSAGES  
 
- SCATTERED SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE TODAY OVER EAST CENTRAL  
WISCONSIN. COVERAGE SHOULD BECOME LESS NUMEROUS BY THIS  
AFTERNOON.  
 
- A FROST ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT TONIGHT FOR SOUTH CENTRAL  
WISCONSIN.  
 
- A MORE WIDESPREAD FROST AND POTENTIAL FREEZE IS INCREASINGLY  
LIKELY THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY MORNING, WITH SOME LOCATIONS  
DIPPING INTO THE UPPER 20S.  
 
 
   
SHORT TERM  
 
ISSUED 242 AM CDT WED OCT 22 2025  
 
TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY:  
 
DEEP CYCLONIC FLOW CONTINUES ACROSS THE REGION TODAY, WITH  
NUMEROUS SHORTWAVES ROTATING AROUND AN UPPER LOW CENTERED OVER  
NORTHERN LOWER MICHIGAN. AREAS OF SHOWERS AND DRIZZLE WILL  
PERSIST, ESPECIALLY OVER CENTRAL AND EAST CENTRAL WISCONSIN.  
PRECIP COVERAGE WILL BECOME LESS WIDESPREAD BY THIS AFTERNOON AS  
THE LOW GRADUALLY MOVES EAST OF THE AREA, THOUGH AT LEAST  
ISOLATED PRECIPITATION WILL CONTINUE INTO THIS EVENING. HIGHS  
TODAY WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE UPPER 40S.  
 
AS THE LOW MOVES EAST OF THE REGION, CLOUDS WILL BEGIN TO CLEAR  
FROM SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST TONIGHT. AT THIS TIME, IT LOOKS  
PROBABLE THAT THE CLEARING LINE WILL ADVANCE ENOUGH FOR FROST  
ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL WISCONSIN TONIGHT. A FROST ADVISORY IS IN  
EFFECT FOR LOCATIONS SOUTH AND WEST OF A LINE FROM JANESVILLE TO  
MADISON TO THE DELLS.  
 
MORE SUN IS EXPECTED ON THURSDAY, WHICH WILL HELP BOOST  
TEMPERATURES A FEW DEGREES INTO THE LOW 50S. PRECIPITATION ON  
THURSDAY SHOULD REMAIN TO THE NORTH AND EAST OF THE FORECAST  
AREA.  
 
BOXELL  
 
 
   
LONG TERM  
 
ISSUED 242 AM CDT WED OCT 22 2025  
 
THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY:  
 
NORTHWEST FLOW AT 500 MB IS ANTICIPATED THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY  
NIGHT, WITH HIGH PRESSURE SLOWLY SHIFTING EAST TO THE SOUTH OF THE  
AREA. SKIES SHOULD BE CLEARING OUT WITH LIGHT WINDS, SO THIS  
SHOULD BE AN IDEAL NIGHT FOR RADIATIONAL COOLING AND WIDESPREAD  
FROST ACROSS VIRTUALLY ALL OF THE AREA.  
 
LOW TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO DROP INTO THE UPPER 20S TO LOWER  
30S OVER MOST OF THE AREA, WITH PERHAPS SOME MIDDLE 30S RIGHT  
ALONG THE LAKESHORE. THIS SHOULD BRING A HARD FREEZE TO MOST OF  
THE AREA AND AN END TO THE GROWING SEASON.  
 
HIGHS SHOULD BE NEAR SEASONAL NORMAL VALUES ON FRIDAY, IN THE  
MIDDLE 50S. LOWS SHOULD BE IN THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 30S FRIDAY  
NIGHT, AS WINDS REMAIN LIGHT WITH CLEAR SKIES.  
 
500 MB CLUSTER ANALYSIS SUGGESTS AN ANOMALOUS RIDGE DEVELOPING  
OVER AND NORTH OF THE REGION OVER THE WEEKEND, BEFORE SHIFTING TO  
THE EAST EARLY NEXT WEEK. HIGH PRESSURE WELL EAST OF THE REGION  
SHOULD BRING SOUTHEAST WINDS AND GRADUAL WARM AIR ADVECTION INTO  
THE REGION DURING THIS TIME. ENSEMBLES SUGGEST A MODEST WARMING  
TREND FOR THE WEEKEND, WITH UPPER 50S SATURDAY TO AROUND 60  
DEGREES ON SUNDAY.  
 
ENSEMBLES ARE TRENDING DRIER FOR PRECIPITATION CHANCES THIS  
WEEKEND, AS THE SOUTHEAST FLOW MAY BE DRY ENOUGH TO LIMIT ANY  
MOISTURE RETURN TO THE AREA. SMALL CHANCES (AROUND 20 PERCENT)  
MAY REMAIN IN THE FORECAST, BUT MAY END UP DRY IN LATER  
FORECASTS.  
 
THE FORECAST IS MORE UNCERTAIN FOR NEXT WEEK, AS ENSEMBLES TRY TO  
BRING A WET PERIOD ACROSS THE REGION FOR MONDAY NIGHT INTO  
WEDNESDAY. SURFACE AND UPPER LEVEL FEATURES VARY WIDELY DURING  
THIS PERIOD, SO WILL KEEP THE FORECAST AT THE NBM VALUES FOR NOW.  
ENSEMBLES DO HAVE TEMPERATURES REMAINING ABOVE SEASONAL NORMAL  
VALUES INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.  
 
WOOD  
 
 
   
AVIATION  
 
ISSUED 242 AM CDT WED OCT 22 2025  
 
MVFR CEILINGS WILL PREVAIL FOR MUCH OF THE DAY TODAY, WITH SOME  
GRADUAL IMPROVEMENT POSSIBLE OVER SOUTHERN WISCONSIN BY THIS  
EVENING. LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED AT TIMES FOR SHEBOYGAN,  
WITH JUST A FEW SPRINKLES POSSIBLE ELSEWHERE. NORTHWEST WINDS  
WILL REMAIN GUSTY TODAY, BUT WILL GRADUALLY WEAKEN HEADING INTO  
TONIGHT.  
 
BOXELL  
 
 
   
MARINE  
 
ISSUED 242 AM CDT WED OCT 22 2025  
 
LOW PRESSURE AROUND 29.4 INCHES OVER LAKE HURON WILL MOVE INTO  
SOUTHERN QUEBEC TODAY. NORTHWEST GALES WILL CONTINUE OVER THE  
SOUTHERN PORTION OF THE LAKE TODAY, WITH WINDS GRADUALLY ENDING  
THIS EVENING. A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IS ALSO IN EFFECT THROUGH  
THIS AFTERNOON FOR THE NEARSHORE WATERS. SCATTERED SHOWERS INTO  
WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND PERHAPS THURSDAY MORNING WILL BE CAPABLE OF  
PRODUCING ISOLATED WATERSPOUT ACTIVITY ACROSS MUCH OF THE OPEN  
WATERS.  
 
LIGHT NORTHWESTERLY WINDS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE END OF THE  
WEEK, AS HIGH PRESSURE AROUND 30.2 INCHES BUILDS IN FROM THE  
NORTHERN GREAT PLAINS. WINDS BECOME LIGHT AND VARIABLE FRIDAY  
NIGHT INTO SATURDAY, AS HIGH PRESSURE AROUND 30.4 INCHES SHIFTS  
SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE REGION.  
 
BOXELL  
 
 
   
MKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES  
 
WI...FROST ADVISORY...WIZ056-WIZ062-WIZ063-WIZ067-WIZ068-WIZ069...2  
AM THURSDAY TO 9 AM THURSDAY.  
 
LM...GALE WARNING...LMZ080-LMZ567-LMZ669-LMZ671-LMZ673-LMZ675-  
LMZ777-LMZ779-LMZ868-LMZ870-LMZ872-LMZ874-LMZ876-LMZ878  
UNTIL 7 PM WEDNESDAY.  
 
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY...LMZ643-LMZ644-LMZ645-LMZ646 UNTIL 7 PM  
WEDNESDAY.  
 
 
 
 
 
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