865
FXUS63 KMKX 150523
AFDMKX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MILWAUKEE/SULLIVAN WI
1223 AM CDT THU OCT 15 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- WIDESPREAD RAIN WILL SPREAD INTO SOUTHERN WI BY THIS
AFTERNOON. LIGHTNING IS NOT LIKELY, BUT POSSIBLE.
- INCREASING NORTHWEST WINDS GUSTING 30-40 MPH FRIDAY
ESPECIALLY ALONG THE LAKESHORE, WITH HIGHER GALE FORCE
CONDITIONS LIKELY OVER LAKE MICHIGAN.
- COLDER END TO THE WEEK WITH OVERNIGHT TEMPS TRENDING TO
AROUND FREEZING FOR FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY MORNING.
SHORT TERM
ISSUED 1222 AM CDT WED OCT 14 2026
OVERNIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY:
THE SATELLITE IS SHOWING WIDESPREAD LOWER CLOUDS ACROSS MOST OF
SOUTHERN WI, WITH POTENTIALLY A FEW HOLES ALONG THE LAKESHORE AT
TIMES. WITH THE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE ON THE NORTHEAST/EAST FLOW
PERSISTING THROUGH THE NIGHT, EXPECT THE LOW CLOUDS TO REMAIN
IN PLACE AS WELL. THE CLOUDS AND STEADY BREEZE WILL KEEP
TEMPERATURES IN CHECK TONIGHT, ALTHOUGH LOWS WILL BE IN THE
UPPER 40S TO AROUND 50.
A PLUME OF MOISTURE WILL RIDE UP INTO SOUTHERN WI ON A STIFF LOW
LEVEL JET TODAY. THIS IS COINCIDENT WITH THE RIGHT ENTRANCE
REGION OF A STRONG UPPER JET AND A MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH.
MEANWHILE A STRONGER MID LEVEL TROUGH OVER SOUTHERN MANITOBA
WILL AMPLIFY OVER THE DAKOTAS AND SLIDE INTO MN THIS EVENING.
THIS WILL HELP WITH CYCLOGENESIS OF THE SURFACE LOW TRACKING
FROM MO TO LOWER MI.
WE CAN EXPECT RAIN TO SPREAD INTO SOUTHERN WI MID TO LATE
MORNING. IT WILL BE FAIRLY STEADY ON BREEZY EASTERLY WINDS.
WHILE A COUPLE LIGHTNING STRIKES ARE NOT IMPOSSIBLE THIS
AFTERNOON ALONG THE 850MB WARM FRONT OVER SOUTHERN WI, LIGHTNING
IS NOT LIKELY DUE TO LIMITED INSTABILITY. MOST OF THE PRECIP
WILL FALL THIS AFTERNOON WITH A 60% CHANCE OF EXCEEDING A HALF
INCH WITHIN THOSE 6 HOURS (HREF AND REFS PROBS). THE RAIN WILL
BECOME LIGHTER AND MORE SHOWERY AFTER THE LOW PASSES AND WINDS
BECOME WESTERLY AFTER THE LOW EXITS THIS EVENING. WE WILL SEE AN
INCREASE IN THE WINDS WITH GUSTS UP TO 25-30 MPH EARLY FRIDAY
DUE TO THE STRONG COLD AIR ADVECTION, CYCLOGENESIS AND PRESSURE
GRADIENT.
BLUSTERY NORTHWEST WINDS ARE EXPECTED ALL DAY FRIDAY. THE PEAK
GUSTS SHOULD BE LATER IN THE DAY AND INTO FRIDAY EVENING AS THE
STRONG AND AMPLIFIED UPPER TROUGH PASSES OVERHEAD. THE 850MB
TEMPS WILL DIVE INTO THE SINGLE DIGITS BELOW ZERO DURING THIS
TIME. THEN NORTHERLY WINDS WILL GRADUALLY DIMINISH FRIDAY
EVENING. THERE SHOULD BE A WEAK ENOUGH PRESSURE GRADIENT AS HIGH
PRESSURE NOSES INTO SOUTH CENTRAL WI FRIDAY NIGHT TO ALLOW FOR
DECOUPLING AND THEREFORE A SHARP DROP IN TEMPERATURES. THE LOW
IS EXPECTED TO BE AT OR BELOW FREEZING BY EARLY SATURDAY
MORNING. FROST/FREEZE HEADLINES WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED.
CRONCE
LONG TERM
ISSUED 1222 AM CDT WED OCT 14 2026
SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY:
TEMPERATURES WILL QUICKLY RECOVER ON SATURDAY AS THE LOW EXITS
AND STRONG HIGH PRESSURE SETS UP OVER THE MIDWEST. YET ANOTHER
SURFACE TROUGH DEVELOPING IN THE NORTHERN PLAINS WILL KEEP OUR
PRESSURE GRADIENT TIGHT OVER WI ON SAT, SO EXPECT BREEZY
SOUTHWEST WINDS (BUT ONLY TO AROUND 20 MPH) AND HIGHS RECOVERING
INTO THE MID TO UPPER 50S. BREEZY SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL CONTINUE
SUNDAY AND HIGHS SHOULD MANAGE TO REACH 60.
THE WARM-UP WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THURSDAY AS WE LARGELY REMAIN
IN SOUTHERLY FLOW. HIGHS WILL BE IN THE 60S, BUT GET UP TO
AROUND 70 BY LATER IN THE WEEK.
THE WEATHER WILL REMAIN LARGELY DRY FROM SATURDAY THROUGH
THURSDAY. THERE IS ONE WEAK SHORTWAVE THAT COLD BRING A PERIOD
OF CLOUDS AND A FEW SPRINKLES ON MONDAY.
CRONCE
AVIATION
ISSUED 1222 AM CDT WED OCT 14 2026
CLOUDS WITH BASES AROUND 3500 FT ARE EXPECTED TO LOWER TO MVFR
THROUGH THE NIGHT. EXPECT LOWERING CEILINGS TO IFR (AND
POTENTIALLY LIFR) BY EARLY THIS AFTERNOON AS STEADIER RAIN
OVERSPREADS SOUTHERN WI ON EASTERLY WINDS AS LOW PRESSURE TRACKS
ACROSS NORTHERN IL. THE RAIN WILL BECOME LIGHTER AS WINDS
SWITCH TO THE NORTH- NORTHWEST THIS EVENING. VISIBILITY WITH
THE RAIN THIS AFTERNOON SHOULD BE REDUCED TO AROUND 3SM WITH
THE ASSISTANCE OF SOME PATCHY FOG.
CRONCE
MARINE
ISSUED 1222 AM CDT WED OCT 14 2026
WINDS WILL GRADUALLY BECOME EASTERLY OVERNIGHT INTO LATE MORNING
AS HIGH PRESSURE AROUND 30.3 INCHES SLIDES THROUGH THE REGION.
THE STRONGER WINDS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE
LAKE DURING THIS TIME. LOW PRESSURE WILL DEEPEN TO AROUND 29.5
INCHES AS IT SHIFTS INTO THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES LATER TODAY
THROUGH FRIDAY. EXPECT A NORTHWESTERLY WIND SHIFT TO RAMP UP AND
INCREASE TO GALES AND NEARING STORM FORCE AT TIMES FRIDAY, ON
THE BACKSIDE OF THE DEPARTING LOW PRESSURE WHILE A STRONG HIGH
PRESSURE AROUND 30.7 INCHES BUILDS TO THE WEST. THUS WILL
MAINTAIN A GALE WATCH FOR ALL THE OPEN WATERS OF LAKE MICHIGAN
FRIDAY MORNING INTO FRIDAY NIGHT.
AS THE HIGH SINKS TOWARD THE OHIO RIVER VALLEY ON SATURDAY, STRONG LOW
PRESSURE AROUND 29.1 INCHES WILL DEVELOP IN NORTHERN MANITOBA. THE
TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT MAY BRING SOUTHWEST GALES TO LAKE
MICHIGAN ON SUNDAY.
CRONCE
MKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
WI...NONE.
LM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY...LMZ644-LMZ645-LMZ646 UNTIL 4 PM
THURSDAY.
GALE WATCH...LMZ643-LMZ644-LMZ645-LMZ646...10 AM FRIDAY TO 10
PM FRIDAY.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY...LMZ643...7 AM THURSDAY TO 4 PM THURSDAY.
GALE WATCH...LMZ080-LMZ261-LMZ362-LMZ364-LMZ366-LMZ563-LMZ565-
LMZ567-LMZ669-LMZ671-LMZ673-LMZ675-LMZ777-LMZ779-LMZ868-
LMZ870-LMZ872-LMZ874-LMZ876-LMZ878...10 AM FRIDAY TO 1 AM
SATURDAY.
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