984
FXUS63 KMKX 041530 AAA
AFDMKX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MILWAUKEE/SULLIVAN WI
1030 AM CDT SAT JUL 4 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED AT TIMES FROM
LATE MORNING THROUGH EARLY EVENING. HIGHEST COVERAGE AND THE
POTENTIAL FOR STRONG STORM OR TWO WILL BE TOWARD THE IL BORDER
THIS AFTERNOON. OUTSIDE OF THAT AREA, THE RISK FOR SEVERE
STORMS IS LOW, BUT CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING AND LOCALIZED
GUSTY WINDS ARE POSSIBLE WITH ANY STORMS.
- PATCHY FOG IS POSSIBLE LATER TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY MORNING.
- THERE IS A SMALL CHANCE (20%) OF THUNDERSTORMS SUNDAY
AFTERNOON.
- A SEASONABLY WARM, COMFORTABLE AIRMASS WILL ENTER THE AREA
THE FIRST FEW DAYS OF NEXT WEEK.
UPDATE
ISSUED 1030 AM CDT SAT JUL 4 2026
THE THUNDERSTORMS THAT TRACKED INTO NORTHWEST IL EARLY THIS
MORNING HAVE DISSIPATED. SOUTH CENTRAL WI IS SEEING SOME LIGHT
RAIN WITHIN THE STRATIFORM REGION. LIGHTNING IS NO LONGER
OCCURRING WITHIN THIS REGION. LOOKING AT VISIBLE SATELLITE,
LATEST RADAR, AND MESO MODELS (HRRR, RRFS, ETC), WE CAN EXPECT
ANOTHER AREA OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP OVER
EASTERN IA BETWEEN NOW AND NOON. THIS IS ASSOCIATED WITH A
WEAK VORT MAX AND THE MOVEMENT WILL BE DUE EAST. THE VISIBLE
SATELLITE IS SHOWING BUBBLY CLOUDS ALREADY, AND THERE ARE LIGHT
RETURNS ON RADAR JUST SOUTH OF DUBUQUE. SURFACE OBS SHOW A
CLEAR CONVERGENCE IN THIS AREA AS WELL, WITH EASTERLY WINDS OVER
NORTHWEST IL AND WEST-NORTHWEST WINDS IN EAST CENTRAL IA.
STORMS SHOULD DEVELOP QUICKLY THROUGH THE NOON HOUR AND EXPAND/
INTENSIFY QUICKLY AS THEY TRACK EASTWARD THROUGH NORTHERN IL.
SOME SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL LIKELY CLIP SOUTHEAST WI FROM
JANESVILLE TO BURLINGTON/ RACINE/KENOSHA. INSTABILITY WILL BE
HIGHEST IN NORTHERN/CENTRAL IL AND THEN TAPER TO AROUND 1500
J/KG (AT MOST) IN SOUTH CENTRAL WI THIS AFTERNOON (ONCE THE CIN
ERODES). WE CANNOT RULE OUT AN ISOLATED SEVERE WITH THIS
CONVECTION.
GENERALLY SPEAKING, MODEL SOUNDINGS ARE SHOWING A WEAK CAP OVER
SOUTHERN WI TODAY, SO ONLY EXPECTING SCATTERED POP-UP SHOWERS
AND STORMS OUTSIDE OF ANY PROXIMITY OF THE NORTHERN IL
CONVECTION. WITH TALL, SKINNY CAPE, WEAK SHEAR, AND HIGH MELTING
LEVEL, WE ARE THINKING GUSTY WINDS OF 35 TO 40 KT WILL BE
POSSIBLE, BUT SEVERE WEATHER IS NOT ANTICIPATED.
CRONCE
SHORT TERM
ISSUED 1143 PM CDT FRI JUL 3 2026
TODAY AND TONIGHT:
THE WEATHER PATTERN IS A BIT MESSY ACROSS THE REGION EARLY THIS
MORNING. MULTIPLE ROUNDS OF CONVECTION HAVE RESULTED IN A GOOD
AMOUNT OF OVERTURNING, WITH A DECENT AMOUNT OF CIN AND AROUND
500 J/KG OF CAPE. EVENING STORMS HAVE SHIFTED DEEPER INTO IL AND
LINGERING LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS WILL GRADUALLY END OVER THE NEXT
COUPLE OF HOURS.
CONVECTION IS PERKING BACK UP IN CENTRAL IA IN RESPONSE TO AN
INCREASING LOW LEVEL JET, WITH OTHER CONVECTIVE COMPLEXES
GROWING OVER NE AND THE DAKOTAS. SYSTEM MOTION VECTORS ARE
EASTERLY TO EAST SOUTHEASTERLY OVERNIGHT AND WITH LINGERING
BOUNDARIES SOUTH OF THE REGION, SHOWER/THUNDERSTORMS CHANCES
WILL TREND TOWARD THE SLIGHT CATEGORY, WITH CHANCES IN OUR FAR
SOUTHWEST TOWARD DAYBREAK PENDING THE BEHAVIOR OF THE CONVECTION
IN IA/NE.
SATURDAY WILL ONCE AGAIN BE WARM/HUMID WITH WEAK DEEP SHEAR
(25KT) AND MLCAPE AROUND 1500 J/KG GIVE OR TAKE. OVERALL THERE
IS A LACK OF FOCUSING MECHANISMS SATURDAY, WHICH RESULTS IN A
RATHER UNCERTAIN POP FORECAST. CERTAINLY THERE WILL BE ENOUGH
HEATING TO POP SCATTERED SHOWERS/STORMS FROM LATE MORNING
THROUGH MUCH OF THE AFTERNOON. GIVEN CAPE/SHEAR PROFILES,
ORGANIZED SEVERE WEATHER IS NOT EXPECTED, THOUGH PULSE-LIKE
LOCALIZED DOWNBURSTS ARE PLAUSIBLE.
A POTENTIAL FLY IN THE OINTMENT FOR TOMORROW IS WHETHER OR NOT
CONVECTION TO OUR WEST TONIGHT DEVELOPS AN MCV OR LINGERING VORT
MAX. WHILE THERE ARE NO MODEL INDICATIONS OF THIS, THE
POTENTIAL IS THERE GIVEN ONGOING CONVECTION.
ASSUMING NO MCV/VORT ACTIVITY SATURDAY AFTERNOON, THERE SHOULD
BE A GRADUAL DOWNWARD TREND IN SHOWER/STORM CHANCES HEADING INTO
THE EVENING HOURS. THERE HAS ALSO BEEN A VERY DISTINCT SIGNAL
IN THE GUIDANCE TO PRODUCE EASTERLY FLOW SPREADING IN ACROSS
LAKE MICHIGAN INTO SOUTHERN WISCONSIN DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON
AND EVENING HOURS. THIS MAY INDUCE A LAKE BREEZE AND FURTHER
SHUNT RAIN CHANCES TO THE WEST WITH TIME.
GAGAN
LONG TERM
ISSUED 1143 PM CDT FRI JUL 3 2026
SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY:
SCATTERED SHOWER/STORM CHANCES WILL LINGER INTO AT LEAST THE
FIRST HALF OF SUNDAY AND AN UPPER TROUGH SHIFTS TO THE
SOUTHEAST. FROM A LARGE SCALE PERSPECTIVE, THIS TROUGH PASSAGE
WILL RESULT IN A PATTERN CHANGE, WITH THE EASTERN CONUS RIDGE
BREAKING DOWN AND A RIDGE BUILDING OVER THE ROCKIES.
NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL SEND A FEW WAVES OUR WAY FROM TIME TO
TIME NEXT WEEK WITH SOME SIGNAL FOR A DECENT UPPER WAVE PASSING
THROUGH IN THE WED/THU TIMEFRAME. OTHERWISE EXPECT SEASONABLE
TEMPERATURES WITH LOWS IN THE 60S AND HIGHS IN THE LOW/MID 80S.
DEWPOINTS WILL BE LESS OPPRESSIVE FOR THE FIRST HALF OF THE
WEEK, DROPPING BACK IN THE LOW/MID 60S.
GAGAN
AVIATION
ISSUED 437 AM CDT SAT JUL 4 2026
PATCHY FOG MAY OCCUR INTO THE MIDDLE MORNING HOURS, MAINLY IN
LOW LYING AREAS. MORE FOG AND LOW CEILINGS BELOW 1000 FEET AGL
IS POSSIBLE LATER TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY MORNING, AS WINDS REMAIN
LIGHT AND MOISTURE LINGERS FROM POSSIBLE SHOWERS AND STORMS
LATER TODAY.
A FEW SHOWERS OR STORMS MAY DEVELOP OVER SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF
THE AREA THIS MORNING. STILL ANTICIPATE SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
STORMS TO DEVELOP LATER THIS MORNING INTO EARLY THIS EVENING.
EXPECT MORE OF A SCATTERED NATURE TO ANY SHOWERS AND STORMS. AS
WINDS SHIFT NORTHEAST TO EAST CLOSER TO THE LAKE BY MIDDAY AND
SPREAD WEST THIS AFTERNOON, COOLER AND MORE STABLE AIR OFF THE
LAKE MAY LIMIT THE SHOWER AND STORM POTENTIAL FOR TERMINALS
CLOSER TO THE LAKE. LOCALIZED GUSTY WINDS MAY OCCUR WITH ANY
STORM.
MIDDLE TO HIGH CLOUDS MAY LINGER AT TIMES TODAY. LIGHT WINDS
SHOULD SHIFT TO THE NORTHEAST AND EAST CLOSER TO THE LAKE BY
MIDDAY AND SPREAD WEST THIS AFTERNOON. LIGHT NORTH TO NORTHEAST
WINDS ARE EXPECTED TONIGHT.
WOOD
MARINE
ISSUED 437 AM CDT SAT JUL 4 2026
HIGH PRESSURE AROUND 30.4 INCHES WILL REMAIN WELL NORTH OF THE
REGION TODAY AND TONIGHT, SHIFTING EAST TO OVER JAMES BAY ON
SUNDAY. WEAK LOW PRESSURE AROUND 29.9 INCHES WILL DEVELOP AND
SLOWLY MOVE EAST ACROSS NORTHERN ILLINOIS INTO INDIANA DURING
THIS TIME. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND SOME THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED
AT TIMES THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
FOG, POSSIBLY DENSE AT TIMES, WILL BE POSSIBLE MAINLY OVER THE
NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE LAKE, AS WARM AND HUMID AIR FLOWS OVER
THE RELATIVELY COOLER LAKE WATERS. SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM
CHANCES WILL END SUNDAY NIGHT, WITH QUIETER WEATHER FOR THE
START OF NEXT WEEK.
WOOD
MKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
WI...NONE.
LM...NONE.
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