974
FXUS63 KMKX 172342
AFDMKX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MILWAUKEE/SULLIVAN WI
642 PM CDT SAT OCT 17 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- SOUTHWEST GALES ARE FORECAST TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY NIGHT OVER
THE NORTHERN THIRD OF LAKE MICHIGAN. A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IS
IN EFFECT NORTH OF PORT WASHINGTON INTO SUNDAY EVENING, AND
FOR THE REST OF THE NEARSHORE WATERS SUNDAY INTO EARLY SUNDAY
EVENING.
- GRADUAL WARMING TREND INTO NEXT WEEK, WITH DRY CONDITIONS.
UPDATE
ISSUED 642 PM CDT SAT OCT 17 2026
A CHILLY, BREEZY NIGHT TONIGHT, WITH SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS KEEPING
TEMPERATURES IN THE UPPER 30S. WITH WINDS REMAINING ELEVATED AND
KEEPING THE BOUNDARY LAYER MIXED THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS,
NOT ANTICIPATING FROST DEVELOPMENT. WITH DEWPOINTS IN THE LOW
30S, ALSO NOT ANTICIPATING ANY FOG DEVELOPMENT.
MH
SHORT TERM
ISSUED 126 PM CDT SAT OCT 17 2026
THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT:
NORTHWEST FLOW AT 500 MB SHOULD BECOME MORE ZONAL TONIGHT INTO
SUNDAY NIGHT ACROSS THE REGION. HIGH PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO
SLOWLY SHIFT EAST NORTHEAST FROM THE CENTRAL PLAINS INTO
SOUTHERN ILLINOIS AND INDIANA INTO EARLY THIS EVENING, THEN
FURTHER TO THE EAST TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY. STEADY WARM AIR
ADVECTION ON INCREASINGLY GUSTY SOUTHWEST WINDS IN THE LOW
LEVELS WILL CONTINUE DURING THIS PERIOD, WITH MOSTLY CLEAR
SKIES. THIS SHOULD HOLD LOW TEMPERATURES IN THE UPPER 30S
TONIGHT AND HELP HIGHS RISE INTO THE LOWER 60S ON SUNDAY. LOWS
IN THE UPPER 30S TO AROUND 40 ARE ANTICIPATED SUNDAY NIGHT.
WOOD
LONG TERM
ISSUED 126 PM CDT SAT OCT 17 2026
MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY:
500 MB CLUSTER ANALYSIS SUGGESTS THAT THE 500 MB FLOW WILL
REMAIN FAIRLY ZONAL OVER THE REGION DURING MOST OF THE WEEK,
BEFORE A RIDGE AXIS DEVELOPS OVER THE REGION BY SATURDAY. THIS
SETUP WILL CONTINUE TO ALLOW HIGH PRESSURE TO REMAIN EAST
NORTHEAST OF THE REGION FOR THE FIRST HALF OF THE WEEK, WITH
ANOTHER HIGH DEVELOPING IN THE SAME AREA LATER IN THE WEEK. THIS
SHOULD KEEP THE AREA DRY FOR THE WEEK, WHICH IS SUPPORTED BY
ENSEMBLE MEMBERS.
TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY RISE THROUGH THE WEEK,
WITH HIGHS CLIMBING WELL INTO THE 60S EARLY IN THE WEEK, AND
AROUND OR IN THE LOWER 70S LATER IN THE WEEK. WINDS WILL BE
LIGHT TO MODEST, WHICH MAY ALLOW FOR LAKE BREEZES/ONSHORE WINDS
EACH DAY NEAR THE LAKE.
WOOD
AVIATION
ISSUED 642 PM CDT SAT OCT 17 2026
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGHOUT THE TAF PERIOD. SOUTHWESTERLY
BREEZES GUSTING UP TO 15 KT OVERNIGHT, WITH LLWS DEVELOPING FROM
FAR SOUTHWEST WISCONSIN TO CENTRAL WISCONSIN. LLWS WILL END INTO
SUNDAY MORNING AS WINDS INCREASE TO GUST AROUND 25 KT. WINDS
REMAIN SOUTHWESTERLY AND BEGIN TO GRADUALLY DIMINISH INTO SUNDAY
EVENING.
MH
MARINE
ISSUED 126 PM CDT SAT OCT 17 2026
STRONG HIGH PRESSURE AROUND 30.6 INCHES OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS
WILL SLOWLY MOVE EAST INTO THE OHIO RIVER VALLEY INTO EARLY
THIS EVENING, THEN FURTHER TO THE EAST TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY.
STRONG LOW PRESSURE AROUND 29.2 INCHES WILL DEVELOP IN SOUTH
CENTRAL CANADA INTO EARLY THIS EVENING, SHIFTING TOWARD AND
INTO HUDSON BAY TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY AND DEEPENING TO AROUND 29.0
INCHES.
THIS WILL BRING SOUTHWEST GALES TO FAR NORTHERN PORTIONS OF LAKE
MICHIGAN LATER TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY NIGHT. GALE WARNING IS IN
EFFECT DURING THIS PERIOD FOR THE NORTHERN THIRD OF LAKE
MICHIGAN. BUILDING WAVES ARE ALSO EXPECTED DURING THIS PERIOD.
A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT LATER THIS AFTERNOON INTO
EARLY SUNDAY EVENING FOR THE NEARSHORE WATERS NORTH OF PORT
WASHINGTON, FOR GUSTY SOUTHWEST WINDS. A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
IS IN EFFECT SOUTH OF THERE FROM SUNDAY INTO EARLY SUNDAY
EVENING, FOR GUSTY SOUTHWEST WINDS. BUILDING WAVES ARE EXPECTED
AS WELL SUNDAY INTO EARLY SUNDAY EVENING.
HIGH PRESSURE AROUND 30.5 INCHES SHOULD DEVELOP EAST NORTHEAST OF
THE REGION NEXT WEEK, BRINGING DRY CONDITIONS AND LIGHT TO MODEST
WINDS.
WOOD
MKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
WI...NONE.
LM...GALE WARNING...LMZ261-LMZ362-LMZ364-LMZ563...4 AM SUNDAY TO 1
AM MONDAY.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY...LMZ643 UNTIL 10 PM SUNDAY.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY...LMZ644-LMZ645-LMZ646...7 AM SUNDAY TO 7
PM SUNDAY.
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