570
FXUS63 KMKX 160552
AFDMKX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MILWAUKEE/SULLIVAN WI
1252 AM CDT FRI OCT 16 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- BLUSTERY NORTHWEST WINDS GUSTING 30-40 MPH TODAY, ESPECIALLY
ALONG THE LAKESHORE.
- HIGH-END GALE FORCE WINDS ARE EXPECTED OVER LAKE MICHIGAN
TODAY THROUGH THIS EVENING. A WATERSPOUT OR TWO WILL BE
POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON AND NIGHT.
- TEMPERATURES TO DROP JUST BELOW FREEZING (INLAND FROM LAKE
MICHIGAN) TONIGHT INTO SATURDAY MORNING. A FREEZE WARNING IS
IN EFFECT FOR MOST AREAS. A FROST ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT
ELSEWHERE.
SHORT TERM
ISSUED 1252 AM CDT FRI OCT 16 2026
TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT:
THE WINDS INCREASED QUICKLY ACROSS MN, IA AND SOUTHERN WI LAST
EVENING AS LOW PRESSURE STRENGTHENED OVER NORTHEAST IL AND
SOUTHERN LAKE MICHIGAN. THE CYCLOGENESIS WAS IN RESPONSE TO A
STRONG AND AMPLIFYING MID LEVEL TROUGH DIGGING INTO THE UPPER
GREAT LAKES REGION AND THE RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION OF THE UPPER
JET OVERHEAD. STRONG COLD AIR ADVECTION IS UNDERWAY WITH THESE
BLUSTERY WEST WINDS OVER SOUTHERN WI. THE WINDS DRIED OUT THE
LOW LEVELS AND ENDED THE DRIZZLE. HOWEVER, AREAS TOWARD CENTRAL
WI ARE JUST ON THE NORTH SIDE OF THE STRONGER ISALLOBARIC WINDS
WHICH IS KEEPING THE LOW CLOUDS AND DRIZZLE LINGERING THERE
LONGER.
ANOTHER PUSH OF COLD AIR ADVECTION WILL ARRIVE MID MORNING IN
SOUTHERN WI AS THAT MID LEVEL TROUGH MAKES ITS WAY ACROSS WI.
THIS WILL TURN THE WINDS MORE NORTHWESTERLY AND GIVE THE GUSTS
ANOTHER BOOST. BY LATE THIS AFTERNOON, STRONG NORTH WINDS WILL
BE RUSHING DOWN LAKE MICHIGAN AND ALSO THROUGH WI IN THE WAKE OF
THAT TROUGH. EXPECT PEAK WIND GUSTS IN THE 35 TO 40 MPH RANGE
DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON. HIGHEST GUSTS WILL BE RIGHT ALONG THE
LAKESHORE. THEY SHOULD REMAIN JUST BELOW WIND ADVISORY CRITERIA
(45 MPH) BUT THIS WILL BE THE PLACE TO WATCH.
WITH THE COLD AIR FLOWING OVER THE RELATIVELY WARM WATER OF LAKE
MICHIGAN, THERE WILL BE A LOT OF LOW LEVEL INSTABILITY AND THUS
A CHANCE FOR A FEW THUNDERSTORMS. ALSO WITH THIS INSTABILITY
WILL COME THE POTENTIAL FOR A WATERSPOUT OR TWO OVER THE
SOUTHERN OPEN WATERS. THE STRONG WINDS WILL PROBABLY LIMIT THAT
POTENTIAL, BUT THE INGREDIENTS ARE THERE.
THE 850MB TEMPS WILL DROP BELOW FREEZING THIS AFTERNOON AND
REMAIN THERE THROUGH TONIGHT AS A COLD AIR MASS BRIEFLY DROPS
IN. WITH WINDS AND CLOUDS DIMINISHING AFTER SUNSET, AND
ESPECIALLY AFTER MIDNIGHT AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE QUICKLY
PUSHES IN, WE WILL HAVE THE CHANCE TO DECOUPLE AND ALLOW FOR
EFFICIENT RADIATIONAL COOLING. TEMPERATURES WILL DROP INTO THE
UPPER 30S BY LATE EVENING AND ARE EXPECTED TO BOTTOM OUT AT
AROUND 30 DEGREES (28 TO 31) INLAND FROM LAKE MICHIGAN EARLY
SATURDAY MORNING. WE UPGRADED THE FREEZE WATCH TO A FREEZE
WARNING (THIS INCLUDES SHEBOYGAN COUNTY) AND ADDED A FROST
ADVISORY FOR THE REST OF THE LAKESHORE COUNTIES (OZAUKEE,
MILWAUKEE, RACINE AND KENOSHA).
CRONCE
LONG TERM
ISSUED 1252 AM CDT FRI OCT 16 2026
SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY:
TEMPERATURES WILL QUICKLY RECOVER ON SATURDAY AS THE LOW EXITS
AND STRONG HIGH PRESSURE SETS UP OVER THE MIDWEST. YET ANOTHER
SURFACE TROUGH DEVELOPING IN THE NORTHERN PLAINS WILL KEEP OUR
PRESSURE GRADIENT TIGHT OVER WI ON SAT, SO EXPECT BREEZY
SOUTHWEST WINDS (BUT ONLY TO AROUND 25 MPH) AND HIGHS
RECOVERING INTO THE MID TO UPPER 50S. BREEZY SOUTHWEST WINDS
WILL CONTINUE SUNDAY AND HIGHS SHOULD MANAGE TO REACH THE LOWER
60S.
THE WARM-UP WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THURSDAY AS WE LARGELY REMAIN
IN SOUTHERLY FLOW. HIGHS WILL BE IN THE 60S, BUT GET UP TO
AROUND 70 BY WEDNESDAY.
THE WEATHER WILL REMAIN LARGELY DRY FROM SATURDAY THROUGH
THURSDAY. THERE IS ONE WEAK SHORTWAVE THAT COLD BRING A PERIOD
OF CLOUDS AND A FEW SPRINKLES WED NT.
CRONCE
AVIATION
ISSUED 1252 AM CDT FRI OCT 16 2026
GUSTY WESTERLY WINDS HELPED TO DRY OUT THE LOW LEVELS WHICH
ENDED THE LIFR CEILINGS AND AREAS OF DRIZZLE. WHILE AREAS TOWARD
CENTRAL WI ARE STILL STUCK IN THAT LOWER STUFF FOR NOW, THAT
WILL DRY OUT AS THE NIGHT GOES ON. CEILINGS IMPROVED TO MVFR AND
WILL REMAIN THERE THROUGH THE MID TO LATE MORNING. WINDS WILL
SHIFT TO THE NORTHWEST BY NOON AND THEN TO THE NORTH BY LATE
AFTERNOON. THE NORTH WINDS WILL PACK A PUNCH THIS AFTERNOON AND
EARLY EVENING AS COLDER AIR RUSHES INTO THE REGION. CLOUDS WILL
DIMINISH IN COVERAGE DURING THE EVENING AND WINDS WILL DIMINISH
OVERNIGHT.
CRONCE
MARINE
ISSUED 1252 AM CDT FRI OCT 16 2026
LOW PRESSURE OF 29.7 INCHES OVER NORTHEAST IL WILL DEEPEN TO
AROUND 29.4 INCHES AS IT SHIFTS INTO THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES
TODAY. EXPECT A NORTHERLY WIND SHIFT TONIGHT TO INCREASE TO
HIGH- END GALES BY LATE FRIDAY MORNING AS THE LOW DEPARTS WHILE
A STRONG HIGH PRESSURE AROUND 30.7 INCHES BUILDS INTO THE
PLAINS. A GALE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR ALL OF THE OPEN
WATERS OF LAKE MICHIGAN FRIDAY MORNING INTO FRIDAY NIGHT.
LIGHT RAIN WILL CONTINUE OVER THE NORTH HALF OVERNIGHT, WITH
DRIER CONDITIONS OVER THE SOUTH HALF. LAKE EFFECT SHOWERS AND A
FEW THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE DURING THE DAY ALONG THE BACK
SIDE OF DEPARTING LOW PRESSURE. A FEW WATERSPOUTS ARE POSSIBLE
IN THE AFTERNOON SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS, PARTICULARLY OVER THE
SOUTH HALF OF LAKE MICHIGAN.
AS THE HIGH SINKS TOWARD THE OHIO RIVER VALLEY ON SATURDAY, STRONG LOW
PRESSURE AROUND 29.0 INCHES WILL DEVELOP IN NORTHERN MANITOBA
THROUGH THE WEEKEND. THE TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT MAY BRING
SOUTHWEST GALES TO LAKE MICHIGAN ON SUNDAY, PRIMARILY OVER THE
NORTH HALF.
CRONCE
MKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
WI...FREEZE WARNING...WIZ046-WIZ047-WIZ051-WIZ052-WIZ056-WIZ057-
WIZ058-WIZ059-WIZ062-WIZ063-WIZ064-WIZ065-WIZ067-WIZ068-
WIZ069-WIZ070...1 AM SATURDAY TO 9 AM SATURDAY.
FROST ADVISORY...WIZ060-WIZ066-WIZ071-WIZ072...1 AM SATURDAY
TO 9 AM SATURDAY.
LM...GALE WARNING...LMZ080-LMZ261-LMZ362-LMZ364-LMZ366-LMZ563-
LMZ565-LMZ567-LMZ669-LMZ671-LMZ673-LMZ675-LMZ777-LMZ779-
LMZ868-LMZ870-LMZ872-LMZ874-LMZ876-LMZ878...10 AM FRIDAY
TO 1 AM SATURDAY.
GALE WARNING...LMZ643-LMZ644-LMZ645-LMZ646...10 AM FRIDAY TO
10 PM FRIDAY.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY...LMZ643-LMZ644-LMZ645-LMZ646 UNTIL 10 AM
FRIDAY.
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