363
FXUS63 KMKX 240927
AFDMKX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MILWAUKEE/SULLIVAN WI
327 AM CST TUE NOV 24 2020
SHORT TERM
(ISSUED 319 AM CST TUE NOV 24 2020)
TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY:
BAND OF SNOW ALONG THE LEADING EDGE OF LOW-LEVEL WAA AND THE
SWATH OF LOW-LEVEL FRONTOGENESIS WILL BEGIN TO PUSH INTO SOUTHERN
WI OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS. OBSERVATION UPSTREAM IN IA/IL HAVE
INDICATED HEAVY WET SNOW OCCURING AND REDUCING VISIBILITY. CAN
EXPECT SIMILAR CONDITIONS TO OCCUR AS THE BAND PUSHES ACROSS THE
AREA DURING THE MORNING COMMUTE. WITH TEMPS ACROSS THE AREA
FLIRTING WITH FREEZING, ONE OR TWO DEGREE DIFFERENCE CAN IMPACT
SNOWFALL AMOUNTS. NONETHELESS, STILL LOOKING AT 2-4 INCHES FOR
AREAS WEST OF I-90 WHILE AREAS EAST OF I-90 MORE LIKELY TO SEE 1-2
INCHES WITH LOCATIONS CLOSER TO THE LAKE SEEING LESS THAN AN INCH
GIVEN THE SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW AND INFLUENCE OF THE WARMER LAKE ON
TEMPS.
HOWEVER, THE MAIN CONCERN CONTINUES TO BE THE SNOW'S IMPACT ON
THE MORNING COMMUTE. EXPECTING SLUSHY/SLIPPERY ROAD CONDITIONS AND
REDUCED VISIBILITY AT TIMES WITH THE SNOW. THUS, HAVE EXPANDED
THE WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY EAST TO INCLUDE ALL INLAND COUNTIES OF
OUR CWA. BE SURE TO USE CAUTION IF TRAVELING THIS MORNING.
SNOW IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE MORNING AND LINGER A BIT
LONGER INTO THE AFTERNOON ACROSS CENTRAL WI CONTRIBUTING TO HIGHER
AMOUNTS AROUND THE DELLS. HI RES MODELS HINT THAT WE COULD SEE A BIT
OF A LULL BEHIND THE INITIAL SURGE OF PRECIP AS THE BAND OF
FRONTOGENESIS AND SWATH OF WAA LIFTS NORTH ACROSS WI INTO THE
AFTERNOON. HOWEVER, THIS WILL ALSO BRING IN WARMER TEMPS, WHICH WILL
RESULT IN THE MORNING SNOW TRANSITIONING OVER TO SNOW/RAIN MIX AND
THEN TO ALL RAIN. RAIN CHANCES WILL CONTINUE ACROSS WI OVERNIGHT AND
INTO WEDNESDAY AS THE LOW LIFTS EAST-NORTHEAST INTO CENTRAL IL.
RAIN CHANCES ARE THEN EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY DIMINISH THROUGH THE
DAY ON WEDNESDAY AS THE SYSTEM PUSHES EAST AND AN UPPER-LEVEL
RIDGING BUILDS INTO THE REGION.
WAGNER
LONG TERM
(ISSUED 319 AM CST TUE NOV 24 2020)
WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY:
LINGERING LIGHT PRECIPITATION SHOULD END FAIRLY QUICKLY WEDNESDAY
EVENING AS WEAKENING LOW PRESSURE MOVES GRADUALLY NORTHEAST ACROSS
THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES. LOW LEVEL THERMAL PROFILE CONTINUES TO
FAVOR ALL LIQUID PRECIPITATION AS IT WINDS DOWN. INCREASING LOW
LEVEL WINDS MAY EVENTUALLY MIX ENOUGH DRIER AIR INTO THE LOW
LEVELS TO BRING AT LEAST PARTIAL CLEARING TO SOUTHERN WI LATER ON
THURSDAY. TEMPERATURES CONTINUE TO LOOK ABOVE NORMAL FOR LATE
NOVEMBER ON THANKSGIVING AS WELL.
THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY:
MEDIUM RANGE GUIDANCE IN REASONABLE AGREEMENT ON A SHORT WAVE
TROF AND COLD FRONT MOVING THROUGH SOUTHERN WI LATE THURSDAY NIGHT
INTO FRIDAY. HOWEVER MOISTURE AT THIS TIME LOOKS SPARSE, SO NO
SIGNIFICANT PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED. FOR LATE IN THE WEEKEND,
THE GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO FLIP-FLOP AND IS NOW SHOWING MORE
PHASING OF THE NORTHERN AND SOUTHERN STREAMS OCCURING OVER THE
EASTERN CONUS SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY AS MAINLY SURGE OF COLDER,
DRIER AIR SETTLES OVER WISCONSIN. WL CONTINUE MAINLY DRY FORECAST
FOR THE LATER PERIODS WITH TREND TOWARD COLDER TEMPERATURES BY
EARLY NEXT WEEK.
KAVINSKY
AVIATION
(ISSUED 319 AM CST TUE NOV 24 2020)
LOWER CEILINGS WILL MOVE IN THIS MORNING AS SNOW SPREADS FROM THE
SOUTHWEST TO THE NORTHEAST. THE HEAVY WET SNOW WILL CONTINUE THROUGH
THE MORNING AND BRING LOWER VISIBILITY AS WELL. WILL LIKELY SEE LOW-
END MVFR TO IFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. THEN CAN EXPECT
SNOW TO TRANSITION TO RAIN THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AND INTO THE
EVENING WITH LOWER CEILINGS AND VISIBILITY CONTINUING, ESPECIALLY
SINCE FOG IS LIKELY TO DEVELOP.
WAGNER
MARINE
(ISSUED 319 AM CST TUE NOV 24 2020)
UNSETTLED WEATHER IS EXPECTED TODAY AND EARLY WEDNESDAY AS A LOW
WORKS ITS WAY ACROSS THE REGION BRINGING BREEZY CONDITIONS AND
INCREASE PRECIP. THUS, A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT FOR THIS
AFTERNOON INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING. QUIETER MARINE CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED FOR THE LATER HALF OF THE WEEK AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS
ACROSS THE REGION.
WAGNER
MKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
WI...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY...WIZ046-WIZ047-WIZ051-WIZ056-WIZ057-
WIZ058-WIZ059-WIZ062-WIZ063-WIZ064-WIZ065-WIZ067-WIZ068-
WIZ069-WIZ070 UNTIL NOON TUESDAY.
LM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY...LMZ643-LMZ644-LMZ645-LMZ646...9 AM
TUESDAY TO 6 AM WEDNESDAY.
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