089
FXUS63 KMKX 141806
AFDMKX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MILWAUKEE/SULLIVAN WI
106 PM CDT WED OCT 14 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- WIDESPREAD RAIN SHOWERS EXPECTED (70-90% CHANCES) THURSDAY
INTO THURSDAY NIGHT, WITH A FEW ISOLATED RUMBLES OF THUNDER
POSSIBLE.
- INCREASING NORTHWEST WINDS GUSTING 30-45 MPH FRIDAY
ESPECIALLY ALONG THE LAKESHORE, WITH HIGHER GALE FORCE
CONDITIONS LIKELY OVER LAKE MICHIGAN.
- COLDER END TO THE WEEK WITH OVERNIGHT TEMPS TRENDING TO
AROUND FREEZING FOR FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY MORNING.
SHORT TERM
ISSUED 104 PM CDT WED OCT 14 2026
TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT:
HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO WORKS ITS WAY ACROSS THE AREA THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING. EXPECT NORTHEASTERLY WINDS TO URN MORE
EASTERLY THIS EVENING AND TONIGHT. AS THE HIGH PRESSURE PUSHES
FURTHER EAST EXPECT THE EASTERLY ONSHORE WINDS TO PERSIST INTO
THURSDAY. MEANWHILE ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS EXPECT LOW
PRESSURE TO LIFT NORTHWEST THROUGH THE DAY THURSDAY AND OVERTAKE
ANOTHER WEAK LOW FROM THE NORTH. PAIR THIS WITH UPPER-LEVEL
TROUGH AND MID-LEVEL VORTICITY, WILL BE ENOUGH TO SUPPORT
INCREASED PRECIP CHANCES THROUGH THE DAY THURSDAY. WITH THE LOW
TRACKING TO OUR SOUTH AND EASTERLY WIND, EXPECT THIS TO BE MORE
OF A WIDESPREAD STEADY RAIN ON THE COOL SIDE OF THE SYSTEM. HAVE
TRENDED A BIT SLOWER, BUT WITH EXTRA MOISTURE OFF LAKE MICHIGAN
WILL SEE THE ENVIRONMENT SATURATE THROUGH THE MID TO LATE
MORNING WITH HIGHER CHANCES THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. OVERALL
RAINFALL AMOUNTS WILL REMAIN BETWEEN A TENTH TO UP TO THREE
QUARTERS OF AN INCH WITH THE HIGHER TOTAL TRENDING TOWARD THE
WI/IL BORDER ALONG WITH THE HIGHER PWAT VALUES APPROACHING 1.5
INCHES. AS FOR THUNDERSTORM, CANNOT RULE OUT A FEW ISOLATED
RUMBLES OF THUNDER, BUT GIVEN THE TRACK AND COOLER ENVIRONMENT
NOT EXPECTING MUCH INSTABILITY TO BUILD INTO OUR NECK OF THE
WOODS.
BY THURSDAY NIGHT, EXPECT THE LOW TO TRACK INTO THE EASTERN
GREAT LAKES WITH A COOLER PUSH OF AIR AND NORTHWESTERLY WINDS ON
THE BACKSIDE OF THE DEPARTING SYSTEM. WHILE DRY AIR WILL TRY TO
PUSH IN, SOME LINGERING MOISTURE ON THE BACKSIDE PAIRED WITH A
DELAYED UPPER- LEVEL TROUGH PASSAGE WILL BE ENOUGH TO KEEP RAIN
CHANCES AROUND OVERNIGHT INTO FRIDAY MORNING.
AS FOR TEMPS EXPECT HIGHS IN THE MID TO UPPER 50S AND LOWS IN
THE 40S FOR THE SECOND HALF OF THE WEEK.
WAGNER
LONG TERM
ISSUED 104 PM CDT WED OCT 14 2026
FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY:
THE UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH CONTINUES TO MIGRATE ITS WAY THROUGH THE
GREAT LAKES ON FRIDAY. GIVEN THE SLOWER DEPARTURE OF THE TROUGH
AND WRAP AROUND SHOWERS ON THE BACKSIDE OF THE DEPARTING
SURFACE LOW, CANNOT RULE OUT SOME LIGHT PRECIP LINGERING THROUGH
DAY BREAK FRIDAY MORNING. OTHERWISE, FRIDAY IS TRENDING MORE
FALL LIKE WITH BLUSTERY, NORTHERLY WINDS AND COLDER TEMPS.
DAYTIME HIGHS ONLY LOOKING TO TOP OFF IN THE 50S. HOWEVER, AS
WINDS DECOUPLE AND HIGH BUILDS TO OUR WEST, OVERNIGHT LOWS ARE
LOOKING TO DIP TOWARD FREEZING INTO SATURDAY MORNING. WHILE WE
MAY NOT BE A FAN OF THE COLDER TEMPS, THIS IS NOT UNEXPECTED AND
IS TYPICAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR FOR SOUTHERN WI AS THE AVERAGE
FIRST 32F DAY FOR FALL IS AROUND 10/21 FOR MKE AND AROUND 10/11
FOR MSN. THUS FROST/FREEZE HEADLINES ARE FAVORED AT THIS TIME
FOR AT LEAST FRIDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY SATURDAY MORNING WITH
SLIGHTLY WARMER AND MORE FROSTY CONDITIONS FOR SUNDAY.
OTHERWISE, THE REST OF THE WEEKEND IS TRENDING DRIER AS UPPER-
LEVEL RIDGE BUILDS ACROSS THE REGION AS THE SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE WORKS ITS WAY EAST ACROSS THE MIDWEST. TEMPS LOOK TO
REMAIN NEAR NORMAL THROUGH THE DAY SATURDAY, BUT AS THE HIGH
SLIDES FURTHER EAST AND SOUTHERLY WINDS AND WAA INCREASES, TEMPS
ARE PROGGED TO GRADUALLY WARM EACH DAY BACK TO ABOVE NORMAL
SUNDAY THROUGH THE START OF NEXT WEEK.
WAGNER
AVIATION
ISSUED 104 PM CDT WED OCT 14 2026
CLOUDS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE PERIOD AND BOUNCE
BETWEEN MVFR AND VFR FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE AFTERNOON. THEN
LOOKING TO LIFT AS HIGH PRESSURE TRACKS ACROSS THE REGION
TONIGHT BEFORE DROPPING BACK DOWN TO MVFR AND EVEN IFR LEVELS
THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING AS LOW PRESSURE AND INCREASE SHOWER
CHANCES SPREAD IN THROUGH THE DAY. NORTHEASTERLY WINDS THIS
AFTERNOON WILL TURN EASTERLY AND REMAIN FAIRLY LIGHT TONIGHT,
BUT EASTERLY WINDS ARE THEN EXPECTED TO PICK UP THROUGH THURSDAY
MORNING A BIT. THEN SHOULD TURN MORE NORTHWESTERLY AND INCREASE
MORE LATER THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY AS THE LOW TREKS EAST.
WAGNER
MARINE
ISSUED 104 PM CDT WED OCT 14 2026
NORTHEASTERLY WINDS THIS AFTERNOON WILL GRADUALLY TURN MORE
EASTERLY TONIGHT INTO THURSDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE AROUND 30.3
INCHES TRACKS ACROSS THE REGION. THE STRONGER WINDS ARE EXPECTED
ACROSS THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE LAKE DURING THIS TIME. THEN TWO
AREAS OF LOW PRESSURE ARE PROGGED TO MERGE OVER THE GREAT LAKES
REGION INTO A SINGLE LOW PRESSURE FOR THURSDAY AND DEEPENS TO
AROUND 29.5 INCHES AS IT SHIFTS INTO THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES
LATER THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY. EXPECT A NORTHWESTERLY WIND SHIFT
TO RAMP UP AND INCREASE TO GALES AND NEARING STORM FORCE AT
TIMES ON THE BACKSIDE OF THE DEPARTING LOW PRESSURE WHILE A
STRONG HIGH PRESSURE AROUND 30.7 INCHES BUILDS TO THE WEST. THUS
WILL MAINTAIN A GALE WATCH FOR ALL THE OPEN WATERS OF LAKE
MICHIGAN FRIDAY MORNING INTO FRIDAY NIGHT.
WAGNER
MKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
WI...NONE.
LM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY...LMZ644-LMZ645-LMZ646...7 PM WEDNESDAY
TO 4 PM THURSDAY.
GALE WATCH...LMZ643-LMZ644-LMZ645-LMZ646...10 AM FRIDAY TO 10
PM FRIDAY.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY...LMZ643...7 AM THURSDAY TO 4 PM THURSDAY.
GALE WATCH...LMZ080-LMZ261-LMZ362-LMZ364-LMZ366-LMZ563-LMZ565-
LMZ567-LMZ669-LMZ671-LMZ673-LMZ675-LMZ777-LMZ779-LMZ868-
LMZ870-LMZ872-LMZ874-LMZ876-LMZ878...10 AM FRIDAY TO 1 AM
SATURDAY.
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