273
FXUS63 KMKX 280449
AFDMKX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MILWAUKEE/SULLIVAN WI
1149 PM CDT SUN SEP 27 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- PATCHY FOG IS EXPECTED OVERNIGHT.
- TEMPERATURES WILL BE A FEW DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL THROUGH
WEDNESDAY, COOLING DOWN LATE WEEK INTO THE WEEKEND
- RAIN CHANCES AND A FEW STORMS RETURN TUESDAY NIGHT INTO
WEDNESDAY
SHORT TERM
ISSUED 1149 PM CDT SUN SEP 27 2026
OVERNIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT:
PATCHY FOG IS ALREADY DEVELOPING IN EAST CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN
WI. THE MID AND HIGH CLOUDS CLEARED QUICKLY AFTER SUNSET WHICH
ALLOWED RAPID COOLING AND MANY OBSERVATIONS ARE SHOWING MINIMAL
DEWPOINT DEPRESSIONS. WHILE INDIVIDUAL SURFACE OBS AT AIRPORTS
ARE SHOWING REDUCED VISIBILITY (DOWN TO A QUARTER MILE AT TIMES
AT SHEBOYGAN AND WEST BEND), THE AREA WEB CAMS ARE NOT SHOWING
THE FOG. THEREFORE, WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR TO SEE IF THE FOG
BECOMES MORE WIDESPREAD BEFORE CONSIDERING ANY HEADLINES.
AN AXIS OF MID LEVEL MOISTURE THAT IS CURRENTLY OVER WEST
CENTRAL AND CENTRAL WI WILL GRADUALLY LEAN OVER INTO SOUTHERN
WI EARLY MONDAY MORNING. THIS WILL BRING MORE CLOUD COVER
AND PRESUMABLY A LOWER CHANCE FOR DENSE FOG. I ADDED PATCHY FOG
TO ALL OF SOUTHERN WI THROUGH MID MONDAY MORNING TO THE GRIDDED
FORECAST TO HANDLE THIS LINGERING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE.
OVERALL, MONDAY SHOULD TURN OUT TO BE A NICE DAY ONCE THE CLOUDS
AND POTENTIAL FOG CLEAR. LIGHT WINDS ARE EXPECTED DUE TO HIGH
PRESSURE OVERHEAD, AND HIGHS WILL BE IN THE LOWER 70S, A COUPLE
DEGREES WARMER THAN YESTERDAY.
CLEAR SKIES IN THE EVENING WILL ALLOW FOR A QUICK COOL-DOWN INTO
THE 50S. LOWS COULD DIP INTO THE UPPER 40S IN PORTIONS OF SOUTH
CENTRAL WI OVERNIGHT, BUT EXPECT CLOUDS TO START SPREADING IN
FROM THE WEST EARLY TUESDAY MORNING.
CRONCE
LONG TERM
ISSUED 1149 PM CDT SUN SEP 27 2026
TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY:
SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL DEVELOP ON TUESDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE SHIFTS
TOWARD THE LOWER GREAT LAKES AND A LOW PRESSURE TROUGH
APPROACHES FROM THE NORTHERN PLAINS. THE TROUGH CONTINUES TO
TREND SLOWER SO THE ARRIVAL TIME OF THE ASSOCIATED RAIN INTO
SOUTH CENTRAL WI BY BE DELAYED UNTIL AFTER MIDNIGHT TUE NT. THE
00Z MODELS ARE HINTING AT THE TROUGH STALLING OVER CENTRAL WI ALL
DAY WEDNESDAY. THIS WOULD LOWER OUR RAIN CHANCES ALONG AND
SOUTH OF I-94 THAT DAY, BUT INCREASE THEM FOR WED NT AND THU
MORNING.
THE REASON FOR THIS FRONT STALLING IS THAT AN UPPER LOW WILL BE
SITTING OVER THE SOUTHWEST U.S. AND THE NORTHERN STREAM FLOW
WILL NOT BE AMPLIFIED ENOUGH TO KICK THE TROUGH OUT OF WI UNTIL
THURSDAY AFTERNOON NOW. THERE WILL BE A GOOD AMOUNT OF MOISTURE
WITHIN THIS TROUGH WITH PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES BETWEEN 1.5
AND 2.0 INCHES, BUT THE INSTABILITY WILL BE VERY LIMITED DUE TO
WEAK MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES. WE COULD HAVE A FEW RUMBLES OF
THUNDER DUE TO THE OVERALL DYNAMICS, BUT NO SEVERE STORMS.
FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY:
STRONG HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES FRIDAY
AND SATURDAY. WE CAN EXPECT COOLER TEMPERATURES AND DRY WEATHER
DURING THIS TIME. AN UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH COULD BRING A
ROUND OF SHOWERS SATURDAY NIGHT OR SUNDAY.
CRONCE
AVIATION
ISSUED 1149 PM CDT SUN SEP 27 2026
PATCHY FOG IS ALREADY DEVELOPING IN EAST CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN
WI.WHILE INDIVIDUAL SURFACE OBS AT AIRPORTS ARE SHOWING REDUCED
VISIBILITY (DOWN TO A QUARTER MILE AT TIMES AT SHEBOYGAN AND
WEST BEND), THE AREA WEB CAMS ARE NOT SHOWING THE FOG, WHICH
INDICATES THAT IT IS VERY PATCHY IN NATURE.
INCREASING MID LEVEL CLOUDS ARE EXPECTED EARLY MONDAY MORNING,
WITH DECREASING CLOUDS IN THE AFTERNOON. THE CLOUDS SHOULD HELP
TO LIMIT WIDESPREAD FOG, THOUGH PATCHY FOG WILL BE POSSIBLE
THROUGH MID MONDAY MORNING. THE PRIMARY AREA OF CONCERN FOR FOG
TONIGHT IS ALONG AND EAST OF THE THE ROCK RIVER VALLEY.
CRONCE
MARINE
ISSUED 1149 PM CDT SUN SEP 27 2026
HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN OVERHEAD THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT,
KEEPING THE WEATHER DRY AND WINDS ON THE LIGHTER SIDE. BREEZY
SOUTHERLY WINDS ARE EXPECTED TUESDAY INTO THURSDAY AS HIGH
PRESSURE DEPARTS TO THE EAST AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING TROUGH.
A FEW WIND GUSTS TO 30 KNOTS ARE POSSIBLE ALONG WITH BUILDING
WAVES, PARTICULARLY ACROSS CENTRAL AND NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE
LAKE.
RAIN IS EXPECTED ALONG A SLOW-MOVING TROUGH THAT WILL SLOWLY
SLIDE SOUTHWARD DOWN LAKE MICHIGAN. EXPECT NORTHERLY WINDS IN
ITS WAKE THURSDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH FRIDAY.
CRONCE
MKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
WI...NONE.
LM...NONE.
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