103
FXUS63 KMKX 262348
AFDMKX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MILWAUKEE/SULLIVAN WI
648 PM CDT WED AUG 26 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- ISOLATED SHOWERS ENDING EARLY THIS EVENING THEN AREAS OF FOG
IN THE WI RIVER VALLEY FOR EARLY THU AM.
- RAIN-FREE & PLEASANT CONDITIONS LATE WEEK.
- TRENDING ACTIVE THIS WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK, WITH
MULTIPLE PERIODS OF SHOWERS AND STORMS FORECAST.
- SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY-CRITERIA CONDITIONS RETURN TO THE
NEARSHORE WATERS ON SATURDAY. A BEACH HAZARD STATEMENT MAY
ALSO BE NEEDED.
UPDATE
ISSUED 648 PM CDT WED AUG 26 2026
ISOLATED INSTABILITY SHOWERS WILL COME TO AN END EARLY THIS
EVENING WITH GRADUAL CLEARING EXPECTED THROUGH THE EVENING.
LIGHT NNWLY SFC WINDS WILL PREVAIL, BUT DECOUPLE AT TIMES
ESPECIALLY IN LOW LYING AREAS. FOG WILL LIKELY DEVELOP IN THE WI
RIVER VALLEY OF SW WI LATE TNT.
A WEAK SHORTWAVE TROUGH WITHIN NWLY FLOW ALOFT WILL THEN PASS
THU AM INTO THE EARLY AFTERNOON AND WILL AID FAIR WEATHER CUMULUS
DEVELOPMENT. ANOTHER SUMMER DAY WITH HIGHS NEAR 80F IS FORECAST
ALONG WITH A WESTWARD MOVING LAKE BREEZE OVER ERN WI.
FOR THU NT, HIGH PRESSURE WILL EXPAND FROM LAKE SUPERIOR ACROSS
THE NRN GREAT LAKES. LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS AND GOOD
RADIATIONAL COOLING CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED OVER SRN WI WITH A
LITTLE MORE FOG OVER SOUTH CENTRAL WI FOR EARLY FRI AM.
GEHRING
SHORT TERM
ISSUED 134 PM CDT WED AUG 26 2026
THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT:
WINDS HAVE LARGELY VEERED NORTHWESTERLY OVER THE AREA BEHIND A
PASSING COLD FRONT THIS AFTERNOON AND WIDESPREAD CU HAVE FORMED
IN THE CAA REGIME. A STRONGER VORTMAX IS CURRENTLY LOCATED OVER
LAKE SUPERIOR AND THE LIONS SHARE OF SHOWER ACTIVITY HAS FORMED
OVER THE UPPER PENINSULA OF MICHIGAN SO FAR. AS THE DAY GOES
ON, THIS VORTMAX SHOULD CONTINUE ESE. IT MAY DRAG SOME POCKETS
OF PVA OVER THE STATE AS IT CONTINUES ON ITS PATH INTO TONIGHT,
CAUSING ISOLATED SHOWERS AND MAYBE A RUMBLE OF THUNDER (~15-20%
CHANCES)OVER SOUTHERN WI BEFORE DAYTIME HEATING ENDS AFTER
SUNSET.
SURFACE PRESSURE SHOULD THEN RISE OVERNIGHT AND HIGH PRESSURE
SHOULD BUILD INTO THE AREA ON THURSDAY. EXPECT MOSTLY SUNNY
SKIES AND HIGHS NEAR 80. HUMIDITY SHOULD GRADUALLY TREND LOWER
TONIGHT THROUGH TOMORROW, WITH GOOD SLEEPING WEATHER SETTING UP
THURSDAY NIGHT AS LOWS DROP INTO THE UPPER 50S.
CMILLER
LONG TERM
ISSUED 134 PM CDT WED AUG 26 2026
FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY:
HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE ACROSS THE UPPER GREAT LAKES REGION
THROUGH FRIDAY, KEEPING CONDITIONS DRY AND MILD. AS THE HIGH
EXITS EASTWARD FRIDAY NIGHT, STRONG WAA OVER THE PLAINS IS
EXPECTED TO KICK OFF A THUNDERSTORM COMPLEX FRIDAY NIGHT INTO
SATURDAY MORNING. THIS COMPLEX MAY THEN RIDE THE NOSE OF THE WAA
INTO CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN WISCONSIN SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND
EVENING, THOUGH SOME OF THE CAMS SHARPLY WEAK THESE STORMS AS
THE TRAVEL SOUTHEAST INTO THE CORE OF THE REMAINING SFC RIDGE.
BETTER CHANCES (~60%) FOR THUNDERSTORMS THEN EMERGE SATURDAY
NIGHT INTO SUNDAY AS THE CORE OF THE LLJ THAT WAS OVER THE
PLAINS FRIDAY NIGHT MOVES OVER THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. WAA
DRIVEN THUNDERSTORMS ARE PROGGED TO FORM EARLY SUNDAY AND THEN
LINGER DURING THE FIRST HALF OF THE DAY, GENERALLY WEAKENING AS
THE LLJ WANES. ADDITIONAL THUNDERSTORMS COULD FORM DURING THE
LATE AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING, THOUGH THAT WOULD BE DEPENDENT
UPON SKIES CLEARING PROMPTLY AFTER THE MORNING RAIN. LONG RANGE
MODELS GET A BIT MURKIER HEADING INTO MONDAY AND TUESDAY OF NEXT
WEEK, BUT IT DOES LOOK LIKE THUNDERSTORM CHANCES WOULD CONTINUE
AS A FRONTAL BOUNDARY STALLS OVER THE STATE AHEAD OF AN
APPROACHING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM. WITH THE PROLONGED WAA AND
STALLED FRONTAL BOUNDARY, HOT AND HUMID WEATHER IS EXPECTED TO
RETURN SUNDAY INTO NEXT WEEK, WITH DEW POINTS NEAR 70 AND HIGHS
IN THE UPPER 80S.
CMILLER
AVIATION
ISSUED 648 PM CDT WED AUG 26 2026
SCT-BKN045-070 CUMULUS THIS EVENING BECOMING FEW-SCT LATE TNT.
FOG WILL LIKELY DEVELOP IN THE WI RIVER VALLEY OF SW WI FOR
EARLY THU AM. VSBYS MAY DROP TO 1/4-1/2SM. SCT040-050 FAIR WX
CUMULUS ARE THEN EXPECTED FROM LATE THU AM THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON FOR ALL OF SRN WI, WITH CLEARING SKIES BEHIND A WWD
MOVING LAKE BREEZE OVER ERN WI. AREAS OF BR AND FG ARE THEN
EXPECTED ONCE AGAIN OVER SOUTH CENTRAL WI FOR EARLY FRI AM
ESPECIALLY IN LOW LYING AREAS.
GEHRING
MARINE
ISSUED 200 PM CDT WED AUG 26 2026
MODERATE NORTHWEST WINDS CONTINUE THIS AFTERNOON IN THE WAKE OF
A COLD FRONT THAT PASSED OVER THE LAKE THIS MORNING. THESE
NORTHWEST WINDS SHOULD EASE TONIGHT, THEN BECOME GUSTY AGAIN
AND A BIT STRONGER ON THURSDAY AFTER DAWN AS ANOTHER COLD FRONT
MOVES SOUTH DOWN THE LAKE. WINDS THEN EASE THURSDAY NIGHT AND
BECOME LIGHT AND VARIABLE ON FRIDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE OF 30.2
INCHES SETTLES INTO THE UPPER GREAT LAKES REGION.
HIGH PRESSURE THEN PULLS EAST SATURDAY AND LOW PRESSURE OF 29.8
WILL APPROACH FROM THE PLAINS. SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL RETURN AND
BECOME GUSTY THIS WEEKEND. SOME GALE POTENTIAL EXISTS ON SUNDAY.
CMILLER
MKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
WI...NONE.
LM...NONE.
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