115
FXUS63 KMKX 252305 AAA
AFDMKX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MILWAUKEE/SULLIVAN WI
605 PM CDT TUE AUG 25 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- HIGH SWIM RISK AT SHEBOYGAN COUNTY BEACHES INTO THIS EVENING.
LIFE THREATENING WAVES AND CURRENTS ARE EXPECTED. STAY OUT OF
THE WATER, AND STAY AWAY FROM DANGEROUS AREAS LIKE PIERS AND
BREAKWALLS.
- SCATTERED SHOWERS & STORMS (~30-50% CHANCES) TONIGHT AREAWIDE
& ONCE MORE WEDNESDAY ACROSS THE EAST. CAN'T RULE OUT AN
ISOLATED STRONGER STORM WITH GUSTY WINDS OR SMALL HAIL.
- RAIN-FREE & PLEASANT CONDITIONS LATE WEEK.
- TRENDING ACTIVE THIS WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK, WITH
MULTIPLE PERIODS OF SHOWERS AND STORMS FORECAST.
UPDATE
ISSUED 605 PM CDT TUE AUG 25 2026
NOT MUCH HAS CHANGED WITH THE EXPECTATION OF ISOLATED TO
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS TONIGHT INTO EARLY WEDNESDAY.
LOOKS LIKE ENOUGH FORCING AND INSTABILITY FOR SOME THUNDER
TONIGHT, THOUGH AS MENTIONED IN THE PRIOR DISCUSSION, NOT TOO
CONCERNED ABOUT A SEVERE POTENTIAL. THE MAIN WINDOW OF TIME
SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE IS FROM ROUGHLY MIDNIGHT
TONIGHT THROUGH MID/LATE MORNING WEDNESDAY. BY THE AFTERNOON
TOMORROW, THE BETTER FORCING, MOISTURE, AND INSTABILITY WILL BE
LARGELY EAST OF THE FORECAST AREA.
DDV
SHORT TERM
ISSUED 219 PM CDT TUE AUG 25 2026
TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT:
QUIET PLEASANT WEATHER WILL CONTINUE THIS AFTERNOON AND INTO THE
EVENING. BREEZY WINDS WILL CAUSE HIGH WAVE ACTIVITY AND RIP
CURRENTS AT BEACHES IN SHEBOYGAN COUNTY THIS EVENING. SWIMMING
IS NOT ADVISED.
TONIGHT, THE ENVIRONMENT WILL MODESTLY MOISTEN AHEAD OF AN
APPROACHING COLD FRONT OWING TO SOME WEAK LOW LEVEL WAA. THE
PRESENCE OF THE WAA AND THE LIFT FROM THE FRONT WILL ALLOW FOR
SOME SCATTERED SHOWER AND STORM ACTIVITY TO FORM ALONG THE FRONT
OVERNIGHT WITH POPS GENERALLY EXPECTED TO BE BETWEEN 45 TO 55%.
STORMS IN THIS ENVIRONMENT ARE EXPECTED TO BE SUBSEVERE OWING
THE THE WEAK SHEAR ALOFT BUT MUCAPE NEAR 1800 J/KG BROUGHT IN BY
THE LLJ MAY BE ENOUGH TO SUPPORT BRIEF PULSES IN STRENGTH IN
THE STORMS THAT CAUSE SMALL HAIL. SOME DRYNESS IN THE LOWEST KM
OF THE SOUNDING MAY ALSO SUGGEST SOME MODERATELY GUSTY WIND OUT
OF AN ISOLATED STRONGER STORM. SOME CONTINUED POP-UPS MAY
CONTINUE THROUGH TOMORROW IN SOUTHEAST WISCONSIN AHEAD OF A
500MB SHORTWAVE THAT WILL MOVE IN FROM THE NORTHWEST.
CMILLER
LONG TERM
ISSUED 144 PM CDT TUE AUG 25 2026
THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY:
AN UPPER AIR RIDGE WILL BE MOVING TOWARDS THE REGION ON THURSDAY
BRINGING COLDER AND DRIER AIR FROM CANADA. SURFACE WINDS WILL
START FROM THE NORTHWEST AND SHIFT TO BE FROM THE NORTHEAST BY
FRIDAY MORNING WITH LIGHT WINDS EXPECTED ALL DAY. HIGH
TEMPERATURES IN THE LOW 70S/UPPER 80S INLAND AND LOW TO MID 70S
NEAR THE SHORELINE. LOW TEMPERATURES WILL BE NEAR THE UPPER 50S
AND LOWER 60S.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO DOMINATE THE REGION ON FRIDAY.
WINDS WILL SHIFT TO BE FROM THE SOUTHEAST WHICH WILL BRING IN
WARMER AND MORE MOIST AIR FROM THE SOUTH NEAR THE SURFACE WITH
COLD/DRY AIR STILL BEING ADVECTED FROM THE NORTH. WILL SEE HIGH
AND LOW TEMPERATURES SIMILAR TO THURSDAY.
THE NEXT LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL START TO MOVE IN ON SATURDAY
FROM THE GREAT PLAINS. PRECIP CHANCES WILL START LATE SATURDAY
EVENING (20-30% CHANCE). WITH AN ELONGATED TROUGH EXPECTED TO
MOVE OVER THE REGION ON SUNDAY. POPS WILL INCREASE WITH A 30-50%
CHANCE FOR PRECIPITATION. WITH WARM AND MOIST AIR NEAR THE SURFACE
AND COLD/DRY AIR ALOFT ALONG WITH SBCAPE NEAR 1500J/KG, THERE IS
A CHANCE TO SEE STORMS WITHIN THIS SYSTEM. WINDS WILL BE FROM THE
SOUTHWEST WITH GUSTS AROUND 15 KNOTS THROUGHOUT THE REGION WITH
HIGHER GUSTS EXPECTED WITHIN STORMS.
A SECONDARY TROUGH WILL MOVE THROUGH THE CWA ON MONDAY WHICH CAN
BRING ADDITIONAL PRECIPITATION CHANCES (30-40) WITH A POSSIBILITY
FOR THERE TO BE A STORM OR TWO. AN ADDITIONAL SHORTWAVE WILL MOVE
OVER THE REGION ON TUESDAY, BUT RAIN CHANCES WITH THIS SYSTEM WILL
BE EVEN SMALLER (15-30%) ALONG WITH A DECREASED CHANCE FOR STORMS
COMPARED TO PREVIOUS COUPLE OF DAYS.
SOERGEL/CMILLER
AVIATION
ISSUED 605 PM CDT TUE AUG 25 2026
STILL EXPECTING ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS THIS
TONIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY. THE MAIN WINDOW OF TIME SHOWERS AND
STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE IS FROM ROUGHLY MIDNIGHT TONIGHT
THROUGH MID/LATE MORNING WEDNESDAY. BY THE AFTERNOON TOMORROW,
THE BETTER FORCING, MOISTURE, AND INSTABILITY WILL BE LARGELY
EAST OF THE FORECAST AREA.
SHOULD SEE VFR CONDITIONS PREVAIL MOST OF THE TIME TONIGHT
THROUGH WEDNESDAY. THERE IS THE POSSIBILITY OF SOME BRIEF MVFR
CEILINGS LATER TONIGHT INTO EARLY WED THOUGH AS THIS SYSTEM
MOVES THROUGH. MIGHT SEE VISIBILITIES BELOW 6SM IN ANY HEAVIER
SHOWERS/STORMS AS WELL.
LIGHT SOUTHERLY WINDS TONIGHT WILL INCREASE A BIT OUT OF THE
WEST TO NORTHWEST DURING THE DAY TOMORROW BEHIND THE SHORTWAVE
AND SURFACE FRONT. WINDS WILL THEN BECOME LIGHT FOR WED
EVENING AND OVERNIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE
NORTHWEST.
DDV
MARINE
ISSUED 144 PM CDT TUE AUG 25 2026
BREEZY SOUTH WINDS WILL CONTINUE THIS EVENING AS THE PRESSURE
GRADIENT SHARPENS AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT AND LOW
PRESSURE OF 29.7 INCHES JUST NORTH OF LAKE SUPERIOR. BREEZY
SOUTH WINDS WILL CONTINUE TONIGHT THROUGH TOMORROW MORNING AS
THE FRONT SLOWLY APPROACHES, WITH WINDS BECOMING MORE
SOUTHWESTERLY WITH TIME. THE FRONT SHOULD THEN PASS WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON, WITH WINDS THEN BECOMING NORTHWESTERLY AND LIGHTER
BEHIND THE FRONT WEDNESDAY NIGHT.
THE NORTHWEST WINDS WILL GROW BREEZIER FOR A BIT ON THURSDAY
AHEAD OF ANOTHER COLD FRONT DROPPING SOUTH OVER THE LAKE, BUT
WINDS WILL THEN BECOME LIGHTER AND NORTHEASTERLY THURSDAY NIGHT
INTO FRIDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE OF 30.1 INCHES MOVES INTO THE UPPER
GREAT LAKES REGION.
CMILLER
MKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
WI...BEACH HAZARDS STATEMENT...WIZ052 UNTIL 10 PM TUESDAY.
LM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY...LMZ643 UNTIL 10 PM TUESDAY.
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