860
FXUS63 KMKX 061942
AFDMKX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MILWAUKEE/SULLIVAN WI
242 PM CDT TUE OCT 6 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- BREEZY SOUTHERLY WINDS THIS AFTERNOON.
- GALE WARNING IN EFFECT THROUGH EVENING FOR THE NORTHERN TWO
THIRDS OF THE OPEN WATERS OF LAKE MICHIGAN.
- NEAR AVERAGE EARLY AUTUMN TEMPERATURES THIS WEEK, WITH
PREDOMINANTLY DRY WEATHER. WARMER THAN NORMAL THIS WEEKEND.
SHORT TERM
ISSUED 242 PM CDT TUE OCT 6 2026
TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY:
GUSTY SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL DROP OFF AT SUNSET TONIGHT, BUT WINDS
JUST ABOVE THE SURFACE WILL CONTINUE TO BE AROUND 40 KT UNTIL
AFTER MIDNIGHT. CANNOT RULE OUT A FEW GUSTS AT THE SURFACE
THROUGH THIS TIME BUT MAJORITY SHOULD BE STEADY AND UNDER 12
MPH.
THE SURFACE LOW PRESSURE TROUGH WILL DROP THROUGH SOUTHERN WI
AFTER MIDNIGHT, WITH THE SLIGHTLY COOLER/DRIER AIR ON NORTHWEST
WINDS ARRIVING WEDNESDAY MORNING. SATELLITE TRENDS UPSTREAM THIS
AFTERNOON, WITH ONLY MID AND HIGH CLOUDS, SUPPORT THE DRY
FRONTAL PASSAGE FORECAST. WITH DRY AIR AND DEEP MIXING, EXPECT
WEST-NORTHWEST GUSTS UP TO 25 MPH WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON.
LOWS TONIGHT WILL REMAIN MORE MODERATED DUE TO THE STEADY
BREEZE, BUT SHOULD STILL GET INTO THE LOWER TO MID 50S.
WEDNESDAY HIGHS, DESPITE THE PASSAGE OF THAT WEAK COLD FRONT,
SHOULD RETURN TO VALUES NEAR WHAT THEY WERE THIS AFTERNOON, IN
THE LOWER 70S.
AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL PUSH SLIGHTLY COOLER AIR DOWN THROUGH
SOUTHERN WI WEDNESDAY NIGHT. THE DRY AIR IN PLACE WILL KEEP OUR
HIGHS/LOWS NEAR SEASONAL AVERAGE AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE DRIFTS
ACROSS THE REGION THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT.
CRONCE
LONG TERM
ISSUED 242 PM CDT TUE OCT 6 2026
FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY:
THERE IS A POTENTIAL FOR LIGHT RAIN OR SPRINKLES FRIDAY
AFTERNOON. THERE IS A SUBTLE AREA OF WARM AIR ADVECTION THAT
WILL SLIDE ACROSS SOUTHERN WI DURING THE AFTERNOON. WHILE IT
WILL BE RUNNING INTO A REGION THAT HAS HAD PERSISTENT LOW LEVEL
DRY AIR IN PLACE, IT IS HARD TO IGNORE THE CONSISTENT SIGNAL
FROM THE GFS/NAM/ECMWF MODELS. THE MODEL BLEND INTRODUCED A
SLIGHT CHANCE OF LIGHT RAIN TO THE FORECAST FOR THIS TIME
PERIOD. THE MOISTURE SOURCE FOR THE LOW LEVELS IS FROM A WEAK
SHORTWAVE COMING FROM THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST. IT LOOKS
SUFFICIENTLY DEEP ENOUGH TO WARRANT THE CHANCE FOR LIGHT RAIN OR
SPRINKLES FOR A BRIEF TIME PERIOD FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND INTO THE
EARLY EVENING, WITH AMOUNTS OF LESS THAN A TENTH OF AN INCH AND
NO LIGHTNING.
BREEZY SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL ARE EXPECTED SATURDAY. THIS WILL
PUSH TEMPERATURES WELL ABOVE NORMAL, INTO THE UPPER 70S TO
AROUND 80, WITH CONTINUED WARMTH SUNDAY. A TROPICAL DISTURBANCE
OVER THE GULF OF AMERICA IS EXPECTED TO STRENGTHEN AND THEN
TRACK ACROSS THE OHIO RIVER VALLEY SUNDAY. PORTIONS OF
SOUTHEAST WI COULD GET CLIPPED BY SOME LIGHT RAIN ON THE
OUTSKIRTS OF THIS SYSTEM, BUT CLOUD COVER WOULD BE THE MORE
PROBABLY THREAT (WHICH WOULD KEEP TEMPS IN THE LOWER-MID 70S
INSTEAD OF UPPER).
OUR NEXT CHANCE FOR RAIN WILL BE ALONG A COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE
TUESDAY.
CRONCE
AVIATION
ISSUED 242 PM CDT TUE OCT 6 2026
GUSTY SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL DROP OFF AT SUNSET TONIGHT, BUT WINDS
JUST ABOVE THE SURFACE WILL CONTINUE TO BE AROUND 40 KT UNTIL
AFTER MIDNIGHT. CONTINUED TO MENTION LLWS IN THE TAFS. A WEAK
COLD FRONT WILL SLIDE THROUGH SOUTHERN WI EARLY WEDNESDAY,
BRINGING A WIND SHIFT TO THE WEST AND THEN NORTHWEST. WITH LOW
LEVEL DRY AIR IN PLACE, CLOUD BASES WILL REMAIN VFR AND 090 AT
THE LOWEST, AND NO PRECIP IS EXPECTED. LOOK FOR NORTHWEST GUSTS
OF AROUND 20 KT WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON.
CRONCE
MARINE
ISSUED 242 PM CDT TUE OCT 6 2026
SOUTHERLY GALES OVER THE NORTHERN TWO THIRDS OF LAKE MICHIGAN
ARE EXPECTED TO DROP BELOW GALE FORCE BY MID EVENING. HOWEVER, A
FEW GUSTS OVER 35 KT COULD LINGER THROUGH MIDNIGHT FOR FAR
NORTHERN PORTIONS. THE GUSTY WINDS ARE A RESULT OF LOW PRESSURE
AROUND 29.4 INCHES TRACKING ACROSS NORTHERN ONTARIO. AS THE LOW
APPROACHES HUDSON BAY TONIGHT, A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE DOWN THE
LAKE AND TURN WINDS BRIEFLY TO THE NORTHWEST WEDNESDAY MORNING.
GUSTS UP TO 25 KT ARE EXPECTED IN THE WAKE OF THIS FRONT
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON.
WEST TO NORTHWEST WINDS WILL SETTLE ACROSS THE LAKE THURSDAY AS
HIGH PRESSURE AROUND 30.1 INCHES MOVES INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS.
WINDS WILL ONCE AGAIN BECOME SOUTHERLY ON FRIDAY AS THE HIGH
DEPARTS THE UPPER GREAT LAKES AND LOW PRESSURE AROUND 29.2
INCHES APPROACHES FROM THE NORTHERN PLAINS/CANADIAN PLAINS.
CRONCE
MKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
WI...NONE.
LM...GALE WARNING...LMZ261-LMZ362-LMZ364-LMZ366-LMZ563-LMZ565-
LMZ567-LMZ669-LMZ868-LMZ870 UNTIL 10 PM TUESDAY.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY...LMZ643-LMZ644 UNTIL 10 PM TUESDAY.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY...LMZ645-LMZ646 UNTIL 7 PM TUESDAY.
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