736
FXUS63 KMKX 060230
AFDMKX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MILWAUKEE/SULLIVAN WI
930 PM CDT THU JUN 5 2025
KEY MESSAGES
- AN AIR QUALITY ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT UNTIL NOON FRIDAY ALONG
THE LAKE MICHIGAN SHORELINE DUE TO WILDFIRE SMOKE.
- MAINLY DRY WEATHER IS LIKELY THROUGH FRIDAY, WITH A RETURN OF
SHOWER AND STORM CHANCES SATURDAY AFTERNOON INTO MONDAY.
- TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN WITHIN A FEW DEGREES OF NORMAL
THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK.
UPDATE
ISSUED 930 PM CDT THU JUN 5 2025
NO MAJOR UPDATES TO THE FORECAST AS THINGS REMAIN VERY QUIET
TONIGHT. NO FURTHER VISIBILITY CONCERNS FROM SMOKE THOUGH AIR
QUALITY REMAINS MODERATE TO UNHEALTHY FOR SENSITIVE GROUPS THIS
EVENING. AIR QUALITY ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT.
KUROSKI
SHORT TERM
ISSUED 227 PM CDT THU JUN 5 2025
TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT:
CAMS WITH NEAR SURFACE SMOKE CONCENTRATIONS CONTINUE TO DEPICT
CLEARING CONDITIONS INTO THIS EVENING ALLOWING US A SHORT REPRIEVE
IN AIR QUALITY. HOWEVER, ADDITIONAL SMOKE IS EXPECTED TONIGHT INTO
TOMORROW MORNING AMID BROAD HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE UPPER GREAT
LAKES AND SINKING AIR OVER EASTERN LAKE MICHIGAN. THIS SMOKE
WILL BE ADVECTED BACK TOWARD OUR SHORELINE BY EAST AND
NORTHEAST WINDS. MODELS DEPICT THIS ADDITIONAL SMOKE FINALLY
MIXING OUT FRIDAY AFTERNOON. AN AIR QUALITY ADVISORY WILL REMAIN
IN EFFECT ALONG THE LAKE MICHIGAN SHORELINE UNTIL NOON FRIDAY
AS A RESULT.
OTHERWISE, HIGH CLOUDS WILL GENERALLY INCREASE OVERNIGHT AS A WEAK
500MB WAVE APPROACHES FROM NEBRASKA AND IOWA. SHOWER ACTIVITY IS
ANTICIPATED TO MOVE TOWARD SOUTHWEST AND CENTRAL WISCONSIN DURING
THE MORNING HOURS ON FRIDAY BUT LARGELY FIZZLE OUT AS THE HIGH
PRESSURE REMAINS IN PLACE AND KEEPS DRY AIR NEAR THE SURFACE.
SCATTERED SPRINKLES/LIGHT RAIN MAY OCCUR OVER CENTRAL WI, BUT MOST
OF THIS ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO BE VIRGA. SMALL WIGGLES IN THE 500MB
FLOW ALOFT WILL THEN CONTINUE THROUGH THE DAY, CAUSING NEBULOUS
AREAS OF LIFT/SHOWER ACTIVITY INTO FRIDAY NIGHT, BUT AGAIN, DRY LOW
LEVELS WILL INHIBIT MUCH OF THIS FROM REACHING THE GROUND.
CLOUDS CONTINUE SATURDAY, WITH A MORE AMPLIFIED SHORTWAVE EXPECTED
TO MOVE THROUGH DURING THE AFTERNOON. 12Z NAM SOUNDINGS DEPICT A BIT
OF CAPE BEING REALIZED AND 12Z GFS SOUNDINGS SHOW A BIT MORE
SATURATION CLOSE TO THE SURFACE, SO THIS AFTERNOON ROUND ON SATURDAY
MAY OVERCOME THE DRY LOW LEVELS AND PROVIDE LIGHT, SCATTERED
RAIN INTO THE EARLY EVENING.
HIGHS WILL BE IN THE MID TO UPPER 70S INLAND FRIDAY, WITH
COOLER TEMPERATURES BY THE LAKE, OWING TO EAST-NORTHEAST WIND
CONTINUING OFF OF THE WATERS, WITH SIMILAR HIGHS ON SATURDAY
CMILLER
LONG TERM
ISSUED 227 PM CDT THU JUN 5 2025
SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY:
THE SHORTWAVE THAT WILL MOVE THROUGH ON SATURDAY IS EXPECTED TO
CAUSE WEAK SURFACE CYCLOGENESIS OVER LOWER MICHIGAN AND LAKE
HURON THROUGH SUNDAY. ON ITS HEELS, A COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO
PASS OVER SOUTHERN WISCONSIN DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS ON
SUNDAY BRINGING GOOD CHANCES FOR RAIN (60 TO 80% POPS). THE
TIMING OF THIS FRONT IS A BIT EARLY, WITH MODELS DEPICTING IT
CROSSING THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY IN THE LATE MORNING. AS A
RESULT, SUFFICIENT VALUES OF SBCAPE FOR STRONGER STORMS (>500
J/KG) DO NOT BUILD AHEAD OF THE FRONT AND INSTEAD WE'LL LIKELY
SEE NOTHING MORE THAN SOME SCATTERED RUMBLES OF THUNDER ALONG
THE FRONT DURING THE AFTERNOON. THIS COLD FRONT SHOULD THEN
CLEAR THE AREA EAST BY THE LATE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING. IT
SHOULD BE NOTED THAT THE TIMING OF THE FRONTAL PASSAGE HAS
VARIED FROM RUN TO RUN LENDING A BIT OF UNCERTAINTY. A SLOWER
FRONTAL PASSAGE WOULD SUPPORT MORE CAPE IN THE AFTERNOON, AND
THUS, STRONGER STORMS. TRENDS WILL BE MONITORED HEADING INTO
SUNDAY.
THERE WILL BE A BRIEF LULL SUNDAY NIGHT, BEFORE AN UPPER TROUGH GETS
KICKED OUT OF CANADA AND INTO THE UPPER GREAT LAKES BY THE
AFFORMENTIONED SURFACE CYCLOGENESIS THAT WILL OCCUR OVER MICHIGAN.
AS A RESULT, CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND A FEW RUMBLES OF THUNDER (30 TO
60%) WILL THEN MOVE THROUGH THE AREA ON MONDAY, WITH THUNDER MORE
LIKELY DURING THE AFTERNOON. ONE LAST GASP OF SCATTERED LIGHT RAIN
MAY OCCUR TUESDAY AS A WEAK TROUGH MOVES THROUGH BEFORE HIGH
PRESSURE RETURNS BY MID NEXT WEEK.
OVERALL, TEMPERATURES WILL STAY WITHIN A FEW DEGREES OF NORMAL
THROUGH THE WEEKEND GIVEN THE CLOUD COVER, RAIN, AND EAST WINDS
OFF OF THE LAKE. TEMPERATURES SHOULD BEGIN TO REBOUND BY THE
MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK AS RIDGING BUILDS OVER THE PLAINS.
CMILLER
AVIATION
ISSUED 930 PM CDT THU JUN 5 2025
VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE TAF PERIOD AS SMOKE
IS NO LONGER CAUSING IMPACTS TO VISIBILITIES IN ANY MANNER.
LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS TONIGHT WITH LIGHT NORTHEAST TO
EASTERLY WINDS TOMORROW DURING THE DAY BUT QUIET CONDITIONS
OVERALL. NO TAF CONCERNS ARE EXPECTED.
KUROSKI
MARINE
ISSUED 227 PM CDT THU JUN 5 2025
HIGH PRESSURE WILL LINGER OVER THE UPPER GREAT LAKES THROUGH
SATURDAY, CAUSING PERSISTENT LIGHT NORTH TO NORTHEASTERLY WINDS.
WINDS WILL COME AROUND TO SOUTHEASTERLY ON SUNDAY AHEAD OF A COLD
FRONT, WITH MODERATE SOUTHWEST WINDS EXPECTED BY MONDAY. SHOWERS
AND STORMS MAY OCCUR ALONG THE FRONT ON SUNDAY.
CMILLER
MKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
WI...NONE.
LM...NONE.
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