222
FXUS63 KMKX 280537
AFDMKX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MILWAUKEE/SULLIVAN WI
1237 AM CDT WED OCT 28 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- MILD TEMPERATURES RETURN FOR MUCH OF THE WEEK.
- SCATTERED SPRINKLES TODAY THEN A 60-90 PERCENT CHANCE FOR RAIN
SHOWERS LATE WED NIGHT NORTH AND WEST OF THE MKE METRO AREA.
SOME LINGERING SHOWERS THU AM.
- CHANCES FOR RAIN CONTINUE EACH DAY THROUGH THE WEEKEND INTO
EARLY NEXT WEEK.
SHORT TERM
ISSUED 1237 AM CDT TUE OCT 27 2026
TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT:
SOME LOCALIZED PATCHY FOG WAS ABLE TO DEVELOP LATE THIS EVENING
DESPITE THE CLOUD COVER. TEMPERATURES WERE ABLE TO FALL TO THE
DEWPOINTS OR VERY CLOSE TO (DEWPOINT DEPRESSIONS AROUND 2 OR
LESS) UNDER THE DIMINISHING WINDS. WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN
LIGHT AND TEMPERATURES SHOULD CONTINUE TO FALL AS SKIES ARE
CLEARING. FOG SHOULD STICK TO LOW LYING AREAS AND FIELDS. IF
TEMPERATURES PLUMMET UNDER THE CLEAR SKIES THE FOG COULD
POTENTIALLY BECOME MORE WIDESPREAD AND LOCALLY DENSE.
THE UPPER LEVEL DIV AND PVA THAT BROUGHT US THE SMALL CHANCE FOR
SHOWERS EARLY THIS EVENING WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE NORTHEAST
TOWARD THE HUDSON BAY THROUGH TODAY. AS THE TROUGH PIVOTS AND
MOVES NORTHEAST THE UPPER LEVEL JET SHOULD INCREASE AT THE SFC
THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IN ONTARIO SHOULD ALSO STRENGTHEN WHICH
WILL TIGHTEN THE PRESSURE GRADIENT ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES
REGION. THIS WILL CREATE SOME BREEZY CONDITIONS ACROSS THE
STATE. A FEW MESO MODELS ARE SHOWING A BIT OF A WEAKER RAIN
SIGNAL. THE FEW MODELS THAT ARE DOING THIS ARE SLOWER TO BRING
IN THE MID LEVEL MOISTURE AND HAVE A NARROWER MOISTURE PROFILE.
THIS HAS EFFECTED THE RAIN AMOUNTS WITH A COLD FRONT THAT IS
EXPECTED TO PASS THROUGH LATE WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY. DESPITE
THIS NOT EXPECTING A TON OF CHANGE HERE EVEN IF THE MOISTURE IS
A BIT LACKING THIS WASN'T EXPECTED A HUGE RAIN PRODUCING EVENT.
THE BIGGEST CHANGE WOULD BE THAT RAIN IS MORE ALONG A SCATTERED
LINE. EITHER WAY THERE IS STILL ELEVATED CAPE IN THE AREA AS
WELL WHICH WILL BRING THE CHANCES FOR A FEW RUMBLES OF THUNDER.
THE FRONT SHOULD CLEAR WISCONSIN DURING THE MORNING HOURS WITH
HIGH PRESSURE MOVING IN BEHIND IT. SKIES SHOULD QUICKLY CLEAR
BEHIND THE FRONT AND SOME CAA WILL BRING SOME COOLER TEMPS.
PATTERSON
LONG TERM
ISSUED 1237 AM CDT TUE OCT 27 2026
WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY:
HIGH PRESSURE WILL PULL TO THE EAST OF WISCONSIN FRIDAY WHICH
SHOULD SWING WINDS BACK AROUND TO THE EAST TO SOUTHEAST. THIS
WILL BRING BACK SOME WAA TO THE STATE. THERE IS A BIT OF
UNCERTAINTY ON IF THE THE MID LEVEL WAA WILL BE ENOUGH TO GET
SOME RAIN TO DEVELOP. THE FORCING DOESN'T LOOK ALL THAT GREAT
AND MOISTURE WILL STILL BE LACKING UNDER THE EASTERLY WINDS.
CONDITIONS FOR RAIN STARTS TO IMPROVE A BIT HEADING TO FRIDAY
NIGHT INTO SATURDAY AS THE TROUGH ADVECTS NORTHEAST INTO THE
CENTRAL PLAINS AND WESTERN GREAT LAKES. THIS TRACK IS STILL
UNCERTAIN HOWEVER. THE GFS LOOKS TO BE THE FURTHEREST NORTH,
EURO THE FURTHEST SOUTH WITH THE CAN AND NAM BEING SOME WHERE IN
BETWEEN. THE NAM BY FAR SEEMS TO BE THE SLOWEST WITH THIS SYSTEM
AT THE EDGE OF ITS FORECAST RANGE. ALL THESE DIFFERENCE SHIFT
AROUND THE AXIS OF RAIN AND THE STRENGTH OF THE SYSTEM AS A
WHOLE. AT LEAST WE CAN BANK ON SOME CONSISTENCY FROM THE GFS AS
IT REMAINS THE RAINIEST OPTION FOR SOUTHERN WISCONSIN. KEPT TO
THE AVERAGE AMONG GUIDANCE WHICH KEEPS POPS LOW AROUND 15-30%.
LOOKING FURTHER AHEAD TO INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK, GUIDANCE IS
HINTING AT A LARGER AND STRONGER LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVING INTO
THE CENTRAL CONUS. THERE IS A BIT OF DISCREPANCIES AS ONE WOULD
EXPECT WITH THE BIGGEST CAVEATS BEING HOW WELL THE UPPER LEVEL
FLOW MERGES TOGETHER WITH A NORTHERN AND SOUTHERN TRACK TROUGH.
THE EVOLUTION OF THIS SYSTEM DIFFERS WILDLY FROM MODEL TO
MODEL, BUT THIS LOOKS TO KICK OFF A MORE ACTIVE PERIOD
REGARDLESS.
PATTERSON
AVIATION
ISSUED 1237 AM CDT TUE OCT 27 2026
CLEARING SKIES AND FALLING TEMPERATURES ACROSS SOUTHERN
WISCONSIN HAVE BROUGHT ABOUT SOME PATCHY FOG. WITH LIGHT WINDS
EXPECTED TO PERSIST THROUGHOUT THE NIGHT, PATCHY FOG MAY EXPAND
A BIT LEADING TO VISIBILITIES AROUND 3-6 SM. IF TEMPERATURES
START TO PLUMMET FOG COULD BE LOCALLY DENSE, BUT CONFIDENCE IS
LOW ON THIS. ADDED SOME FOG TO THE TAFS SITES THAT ARE MOST
LIKELY TO BE EFFECTED. LOW LYING AREAS WILL BE MOST SUSCEPTIBLE
TONIGHT INTO EARLY WEDNESDAY. FOG SHOULD DIMINISH SHORTLY AFTER
SUNRISE.
PARTLY CLOUD SKIES DURING THE DAY WILL INCREASE WEDNESDAY
EVENING AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE NORTHWEST. THIS
AFTERNOON AHEAD OF THE FRONT SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL
BECOME BREEZY WITH GUSTS OF 20-25 KTS POSSIBLE (23-30 MPH). THE
BEST CHANCES FOR STRONGER WINDS WILL BE ACROSS EAST CENTRAL
WISCONSIN. LATE WEDNESDAY INTO EARLY THURSDAY RAIN AND A FEW
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE. WINDS WILL SHIFT TO
NORTHWESTERLY BEHIND THE COLD FRONT THURSDAY MORNING.
PATTERSON
MARINE
ISSUED 1237 AM CDT TUE OCT 27 2026
HIGH PRESSURE OF 30.5 INCHES IN WESTERN QUEBEC WILL CONTINUE EAST
INTO THE NEW ENGLAND STATES. MEANWHILE, A BROAD LOW PRESSURE
AROUND 29.8 INCHES WILL MOVE INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS. MODERATE
EAST TO SOUTHEAST WINDS THIS EVENING WILL GRADUALLY BECOME
SOUTHERLY BY WEDNESDAY MORNING. BREEZY SOUTH WINDS WILL PERSIST
WEDNESDAY, WITH GUSTS APPROACHING GALES ACROSS THE FAR NORTHERN
EDGE OF THE LAKE WEDNESDAY NIGHT AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD
FRONT. GUSTS WILL STOP A COUPLE KNOTS SHORT OF GALES OVER THE
NORTHERN END OF LAKE MICHIGAN, THOUGH A FEW INTERMITTENT GUSTS TO
GALE FORCE CAN'T BE RULED OUT. FOR THE NEARSHORE ZONES, A SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT FOR AREAS NORTH OF NORTH OF PORT
WASHINGTON WEDNESDAY EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING DUE TO
GUSTY SOUTHWEST WINDS AND BUILDING WAVES.
WINDS THEN BECOME SOUTHWESTERLY AND COME AROUND TO NORTHWESTERLY
FOLLOWING THE FRONT. WINDS THEN QUICKLY SLOW BEHIND THE FRONT
THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING AS HIGH PRESSURE OF 30.2 INCHES
WORKS IN FROM THE CENTRAL PLAINS.
PATTERSON
MKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
WI...NONE.
LM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY...LMZ643...7 PM WEDNESDAY TO 7 AM
THURSDAY.
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