114
FXUS63 KMKX 252307
AFDMKX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MILWAUKEE/SULLIVAN WI
607 PM CDT SUN OCT 25 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- A COLD FRONT WILL DROP THROUGH SOUTHERN WI EARLY MONDAY
MORNING. BRISK NORTHEAST WINDS WILL USHER COOLER TEMPERATURES
INTO THE AREA.
- TEMPERATURES WILL TREND BACK ABOVE NORMAL TUESDAY THROUGH THE
END OF THE WEEK. LIGHT RAIN CHANCES RETURN WEDNESDAY NIGHT
THROUGH THURSDAY, AND AGAIN SATURDAY AFTERNOON-NIGHT.
UPDATE
ISSUED 600 PM CDT SUN OCT 25 2026
NO MAJOR CHANGES FROM THE PREVIOUS FORECAST. STILL SEEING A
COLD FRONT STREWN ACROSS CENTRAL WI CONTINUE TO SAG SOUTH
TONIGHT INTO EARLY MONDAY MORNING. WHILE THIS MAY BRING SOME
LOWER CLOUDS, PLENTY OF DRY AIR AHEAD AND SHOULD LIMIT ANY
SHOWER ACTIVITY. NEVERTHELESS, COULD SEE A FEW SPRINKLES ALONG
THE BOUNDARY GIVEN A BIT OF MID-LEVEL VORTICITY AND +1 INCH
PWATS, BUT NOT EXPECTING MEASURABLE AMOUNTS IF ANYTHING SHOULD
DEVELOP IN OUR CENTRAL WI COUNTIES. OTHERWISE, A MUCH COOLER
AIRMASS IS EXPECTED TO FILTER IN BEHIND THE FRONT THROUGH MONDAY
MORNING ALONG WITH BREEZY NORTHEASTERLY WINDS.
WAGNER
SHORT TERM
ISSUED 236 PM CDT SUN OCT 25 2026
TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY:
A RATHER STRONG SURFACE FRONT IS SITTING ACROSS SOUTHERN MN AND
CENTRAL/NORTH CENTRAL WI THIS AFTERNOON. THERE IS A 15 DEGREE
DIFFERENCE BETWEEN THE WARM AND COLD SIDE, ALONG WITH AN ABRUPT
WIND SHIFT. THE FRONT IS STATIONARY AT THE MOMENT, BUT WE CAN
EXPECT IT TO SLIDE SOUTHWARD OVERNIGHT. THIS IS DUE TO A
COMBINATION OF A WEAK LOW PRESSURE TROUGH (STEMMING FROM A
HUDSON BAY LOW) AND A STRONG SURFACE HIGH THAT WILL SHIFT FROM
SASKATCHEWAN TONIGHT TO ONTARIO BY MONDAY AFTERNOON. WHILE THE
FRONT IS EXPECTED TO MOVE THROUGH SOUTHERN WI DRY, LOW CLOUDS
AND SOME MID LEVEL VORTICITY ADVECTION COULD BE JUST ENOUGH
FORCING TO ALLOW FOR A FEW SPRINKLES OR LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS. SET
MINIMUM POPS TO BE 10 PERCENT FOR THIS REASON. THE MAIN PRECIP
WILL BE IN MN.
EXPECT BRISK NORTHEAST WINDS AND LOW CLOUDS MONDAY MORNING TO
KEEP TEMPERATURES DOWN FOR AT LEAST THE FIRST HALF OF THE DAY.
WE SHOULD SEE CLOUD BASES LIFT AND PERHAPS A FEW BREAKS IN THE
CLOUDS MONDAY AFTERNOON AS WINDS BECOME LIGHTER AND MORE
EASTERLY. HIGH TEMPERATURES MONDAY ARE EXPECTED TO RANGE FROM
AROUND 54 DEGREES IN SHEBOYGAN TO THE LOWER 60S ALONG THE WI/IL
BORDER. THESE TEMPS ARE AT OR A LITTLE ABOVE NORMAL FOR THE END
OF OCTOBER. LOWS MONDAY NIGHT WILL BE IN THE 40S UNDER MOSTLY
CLOUDY SKIES.
A MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL PROGRESS FROM CO TO THE DAKOTAS
ON MONDAY. AS THE ASSOCIATED SURFACE LOW GETS INTO MN TUESDAY
MORNING, WE CAN EXPECT A SWITCH TO SOUTHERLY WINDS IN SOUTHERN
WI. THEREFORE, LOOK FOR TEMPS TO REBOUND INTO THE UPPER 60S TUE
(INLAND FROM LAKE MICHIGAN).
CRONCE
LONG TERM
ISSUED 236 PM CDT SUN OCT 25 2026
WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY:
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL SETTLE OVER THE NORTHEAST U.S. WHILE
THE WEST HALF OF THE COUNTRY WILL REMAIN IN ZONAL FLOW
WEDNESDAY. A WEAK MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH TREKKING ALONG THE
NORTHERN PLAINS WILL BRING AN AREA OF WARM AIR ADVECTION AND
VORTICITY ADVECTION INTO SOUTHERN WI WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND
NIGHT. THE ASSOCIATED SURFACE TROUGH MAY TAKE UNTIL THURSDAY
AFTERNOON TO CLEAR SOUTHEAST WI SINCE THE HIGH OUT EAST IS SO
STRONG.
THE MID LEVEL MOISTURE IS GOING TO BE LIMITED WITH THIS SYSTEM
SO THE FORECAST IS FOR LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS THAT DO NOT AMOUNT TO
MUCH PRECIP (LESS THAN A QUARTER INCH). WE COULD HAVE A LITTLE
ELEVATED INSTABILITY AS THE LOW LEVEL JET PUSHES INTO THE REGION
WITH THE WARM AIR ADVECTION WED NT, SO A FEW LIGHTNING STRIKES
WILL BE POSSIBLE.
THE FORECAST IS TRENDING DRIER FOR THURSDAY NIGHT/FRIDAY AS
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE MOVES BACK OVER THE UPPER GREAT LAKES.
THIS HIGH USED TO HAVE A COLDER CORE OVER US, BUT THAT WILL NOW
BE SHUNTED WELL TO THE NORTH FOR THE WEEKEND. OUR NEXT
REASONABLE CHANCE FOR RAIN SHOWERS WILL BE SATURDAY AFTERNOON
AND NIGHT, BUT THESE WILL BE LIGHT ONCE AGAIN IN A WEAK WARM AIR
ADVECTION REGIME. HOWEVER, THE SOURCE REGION OF THE MOISTURE
WILL HAVE A PACIFIC ORIGIN THIS TIME, SO STEADIER SHOWERS COULD
BE POSSIBLE. IT IS STILL A LITTLE TOO EARLY TO SAY FOR SURE. WE
WILL KEEP AN EYE ON THIS ONE SINCE IT WOULD HAPPEN ON AN EVENING
WHERE MANY PEOPLE ARE OUTSIDE.
ANY LINGERING RAIN WILL EXIT BY SUNDAY AFTERNOON-EVENING AS HIGH
PRESSURE PUSHES BACK IN.
CRONCE
AVIATION
ISSUED 600 PM CDT SUN OCT 25 2026
COLD FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO SAG SOUTHWARD THROUGH TONIGHT
BRINGING MID-LEVEL CLOUDS AND OCCASIONAL POCKETS OF MVFR
CEILINGS BELOW 3KFT. HIGHEST CONFIDENCE FOR SEEING THE LOWERING
CEILINGS IS FOR SBM, BUT DRIER AIR FURTHER SOUTH LIMITS
CONFIDENCE FOR THE OTHER SOUTHERN WI TERMINALS. HOWEVER, CANNOT
BE COMPLETELY RULED OUT THROUGH DAYBREAK BEFORE IMPROVING TO
ABOVE VFR. OTHERWISE, MAINLY LOOKING AT A WIND FORECAST WITH
BREEZIER NORTHEASTERLY WINDS BEHIND THE FRONT EARLY MONDAY
MORNING AND REMAINING THROUGH THE AFTERNOON BEFORE DIMINISHING.
WAGNER
MARINE
ISSUED 236 PM CDT SUN OCT 25 2026
LOW PRESSURE AROUND 29.3 INCHES SHIFTING EAST OF HUDSON BAY
AND HIGH PRESSURE AROUND 30.6 INCHES TRACKING FROM SASKATCHEWAN
TO THE NORTHERN GREAT LAKES THROUGH MONDAY WILL RESULT IN A
SLOW MOVING COLD FRONT FROM NORTH TO SOUTH ACROSS LAKE MICHIGAN.
EXPECT MODEST SOUTHERLY WINDS TO ABRUPTLY BECOME NORTH TO
NORTHEASTERLY WITH THE FRONTAL PASSAGE FROM NORTH TO SOUTH
OVERNIGHT INTO MONDAY MORNING. BREEZY NORTH TO NORTHEAST WINDS
WILL CONTINUE THROUGH MONDAY EVENING. LOOK FOR WINDS TO BECOME
SOUTHEASTERLY TUESDAY AS LOW PRESSURE OF 30.0 INCHES TRACKS FROM
SOUTHWEST MINNESOTA TO THE DULUTH AREA, AND BECOME BREEZY OUT OF
THE SOUTH ON WEDNESDAY AS THE NEXT LOW OF 29.9 INCHES TAKES A
SIMILAR PATH. WINDS WILL SHIFT TO NORTHERLY ON THURSDAY IN THE
WAKE OF THE ASSOCIATED TROUGH.
FOR THE NEARSHORE AREAS, EXPECT A SUDDEN INCREASE IN NORTH TO
NORTHEAST WINDS FROM NORTH TO SOUTH AFTER MIDNIGHT. THE BRISK
WINDS WILL BUILD HIGH WAVES BY MONDAY MORNING AND GUSTS UP TO 25
KT ARE EXPECTED DURING PEAK DAYTIME MIXING HOURS. WINDS WILL
GRADUALLY SHIFT TO EAST AND SOUTHEAST THROUGH TUESDAY, SO HIGH
WAVES WILL PERSIST INTO TUESDAY EVENING FOR AREAS NORTH OF THE
NORTH POINT LIGHT. A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT.
CRONCE
MKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
WI...NONE.
LM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY...LMZ643-LMZ644...7 AM MONDAY TO 10 PM
TUESDAY.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY...LMZ645-LMZ646...7 AM MONDAY TO 1 PM
TUESDAY.
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