191
FXUS63 KMKX 221512
AFDMKX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MILWAUKEE/SULLIVAN WI
912 AM CST SAT FEB 22 2025
KEY MESSAGES
- BREEZY CONDITIONS TODAY, WITH SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS
IN SOUTHERN NEARSHORE ZONES.
- SOUTHWEST WINDS ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO CLIMB BACK TO NORMAL ON SUNDAY,
AND 5-10 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL IN MOST SPOTS MONDAY THROUGH
WEDNESDAY.
- THE PATTERN TURNS MORE ACTIVE DURING THE UPCOMING WORK WEEK,
WITH CHANCES (~25-45%) FOR MOSTLY RAIN MONDAY NIGHT INTO
TUESDAY & WEDNESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY EVENING.
- SUSTAINED ABOVE-NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL LEAD TO THE POTENTIAL
FOR ICE JAMS & MELTING, WHICH COULD RESULT IN RISES ON
SOUTHERN WISCONSIN RIVERS THROUGH MID-WEEK.
- ANOTHER DISTURBANCE APPROACHES ON FRIDAY, BRINGING CHANCES OF
SNOW TO SOUTHERN WISCONSIN.
UPDATE
ISSUED 912 AM CST SAT FEB 22 2025
BREEZY SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL CONTINUE TODAY AS HIGH PRESSURE OVER
THE SOUTHEAST SLOWLY WEAKENS AND LOW PRESSURE OVER CANADA
ADVANCES EASTWARD. HIGHS SHOULD TOP OUT IN THE MID TO UPPER
20S.
BOXELL
SHORT TERM
ISSUED 359 AM CST SAT FEB 22 2025
TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY:
SYNOPSIS/MESOANALYSIS: 3 AM SURFACE OBSERVATIONS PLACE 1034 MB HIGH
PRESSURE ALONG THE OHIO-WEST VIRGINIA BORDER, ALONG WITH AN AREA OF
996 MB LOW PRESSURE OVER THE NORTHEASTERN HUDSON BAY. WEDGED BETWEEN
THESE TWO SYNOPTIC FEATURES, STRONG SOUTHWESTERLY GRADIENT WINDS
PREVAIL ACROSS SOUTHERN WISCONSIN THIS MORNING. GUSTS, WHICH HAVE
PEAKED AT 31 MPH IN SHEBOYGAN AND 28 MPH IN MILWAUKEE, ARE BEING
FURTHER REINFORCED BY A 30+ KNOT LOW LEVEL JET THAT IS ROOTED JUST
BENEATH THE NOCTURNAL INVERSION. THE LOW LEVEL JET WILL PERSIST
ACROSS THE REGION TODAY, SLOWLY PROGRESSING SOUTH & COMBINING WITH A
STILL COMPACT SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT TO SUPPORT CONTINUED BREEZY
CONDITIONS. THE SOUTHWEST BREEZES WILL ALLOW FOR MILDER HIGH
TEMPERATURES COMPARED TO FRIDAY, WITH MOST LOCATIONS TOPPING OUT IN
THE UPPER 20S OR LOW 30S. SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL CONTINUE INTO THE DAY
ON SUNDAY---ALBEIT SLIGHTLY WEAKER THAN TODAY---ALLOWING FOR EVEN
WARMER HIGH TEMPERATURES ACROSS SOUTHERN WISCONSIN.
TODAY: BREEZY SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH MOST OF THE DAY,
WITH THE GREATEST READINGS (~25-30 MPH) ANTICIPATED OVER EAST-
CENTRAL AND SOUTHEASTERN WISCONSIN. READINGS WILL GRADUALLY TAPER
THIS EVENING AS THE SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT BEGINS TO RELAX.
SUNDAY: EVEN MILDER HIGH TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST AS WARM AIR
CONTINUES TO ADVECT INTO SOUTHERN WISCONSIN FROM THE NORTHERN
PLAINS. READINGS ARE LIKELY TO BE HELD BACK A TOUCH FROM WHAT "RAW"
925-850 MB TEMPERATURES SUGGEST GIVEN THE SNOW PACK THAT HAS BUILT
UP, THOUGH THE VAST MAJORITY OF LOCATIONS SHOULD AT LEAST CLIMB BACK
TOWARD THEIR LATE FEBRUARY NORMS (37 IN MILWAUKEE; 34 IN MADISON).
LOCATIONS IN THE WISCONSIN RIVER VALLEY WILL LIKELY TOUCH THE 40
DEGREE MARK BEFORE THE END OF THE DAY.
QUIGLEY
LONG TERM
ISSUED 359 AM CST SAT FEB 22 2025
SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY:
SYNOPSIS: SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL REMAIN ENTRENCHED ACROSS THE WESTERN
GREAT LAKES THROUGH THE MIDDLE PART OF NEXT WEEK, ALLOWING FOR MILD
AIR TO CONTINUE ADVECTING INTO SOUTHERN WISCONSIN FROM THE PLAINS.
THE PERSISTENT PATTERN WILL ALLOW HIGH TEMPERATURES TO CLIMB
COMFORTABLY ABOVE NORMAL MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY, WHEN THE VAST
MAJORITY OF LOCATIONS WILL SEE READINGS IN THE LOW TO MID-40S. SOME
SPOTS SOUTHWEST OF MADISON & NEAR THE WISCONSIN-ILLINOIS STATE LINE
COULD SEE HIGHS IN THE UPPER 40S EACH DAY. ALONG WITH THE MILDER
TEMPERATURES, THE PATTERN WILL TURN MORE ACTIVE THROUGH MID-WEEK
THANKS TO NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT & A TRAIN OF DISTURBANCES CROSSING
SOUTHERN WISCONSIN. EACH DISTURBANCE WILL BRING CHANCES FOR
PRECIPITATION TO THE AREA, WITH THE MAJORITY OF PRECIPITATION
FALLING AS RAIN. THE COMBINATION OF WARMER HIGH TEMPERATURES &
MULTIPLE RAIN CHANCES WILL ENCOURAGE MELTING OF ICE, WHICH WILL
INCREASE THE POTENTIAL FOR ICE JAMS AND SUBSEQUENT RISES ON SOUTHERN
WISCONSIN RIVERS THROUGH MID-WEEK. WINDS WILL TURN OUT OF THE WEST-
NORTHWEST DURING THE LATE WEEK PERIOD, KNOCKING TEMPERATURES BACK TO
OR SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL. ANOTHER DISTURBANCE WILL APPROACH BY
FRIDAY, BRINGING A RETURN OF SNOW TO THE FORECAST ACROSS SOUTHERN
WISCONSIN.
SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY: THE FIRST IN A TRAIN OF DISTURBANCES
DURING THE EARLY-MID WEEK PERIOD WILL CROSS THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES.
THE MAJORITY OF SYNOPTIC ASCENT AFFILIATED WITH THE DISTURBANCE WILL
CROSS NORTHERN WISCONSIN & THE UP OF MICHIGAN, WHICH HAS RESULTED IN
LARGELY REDUCED CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION ACROSS SOUTHERN WISCONSIN
IN THIS FORECAST. HAVE MAINTAINED SOME SLIGHT CHANCES (~15-20%) FOR
PRECIP & RAIN/SNOW MENTIONS OVER OUR FAR NORTHERN COUNTIES, THOUGH
APPRECIABLE QPF IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN WELL NORTH OF THESE LOCATIONS.
MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY: THE SECOND OF THREE EARLY-MID WEEK
DISTURBANCES WILL TRACK ACROSS THE STATE. UNLIKE THE FIRST, THE BULK
OF THE SYNOPTIC ASCENT WILL CROSS SOUTHERN WISCONSIN IN THIS SYSTEM,
BRINGING APPRECIABLE CHANCES FOR PRECIP AREAWIDE. A MILD ANTECEDENT
AIR MASS WILL ALLOW FOR ALL RAIN, WITH LAST EVENING'S ENSEMBLE
GUIDANCE AND THE OVERNIGHT FORECAST SHOWING LIGHT (0.1" OR LESS) QPF
ALONG/AHEAD OF THE FAIRLY PROGRESSIVE SYSTEM.
WEDNESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT: THE LAST OF THREE EARLY-MID WEEK
SYSTEMS IS FORECAST TO MOVE ACROSS SOUTHERN WISCONSIN. BETTER
AGREEMENT IN THE SYSTEM'S TRACK HAS BEEN NOTED IN THE LATEST SUITE
OF FORECAST GUIDANCE, WHICH POINTS TOWARD THE BEST SYNOPTIC ASCENT
MOVING ACROSS SOUTHERN WISCONSIN. TEMPERATURE FORECASTS CONTINUE TO
POINT TOWARD RAIN AS THE PRIMARY PRECIP TYPE, WITH SOME VERY LIGHT
RAIN/SNOW MIX POSSIBLE AT THE VERY BEGINNING AND END POINTS OF THE
SYSTEM. SLOWER SYSTEM PROGRESSION, ALONG WITH BETTER COUPLING OF MID
AND UPPER LEVEL FORCING, RESULTS IN MODESTLY HIGHER QPF COMPARED TO
THE MONDAY NIGHT DISTURBANCE, WHICH MAY RESULT IN THE EXACERBATION
OF ANY RIVER RISES DUE TO ICE JAMS & MELTING. WILL CONTINUE TO
MONITOR TRENDS OVER THE COMING FORECASTS GIVEN THE STILL DISTANT
NATURE OF THIS SYSTEM.
FRIDAY: ANOTHER DISTURBANCE IS FORECAST TO APPROACH DURING THE
AFTERNOON HOURS. COOLER TEMPERATURES IN THE WAKE OF THE WEDNESDAY
WEATHERMAKER WOULD SUPPORT PRIMARILY SNOW IN THIS DISTURBANCE, WITH
SOME ACCUMULATIONS POSSIBLE. WILL PROVIDE MORE DETAIL IN LATER
FORECASTS AS MODEL SOLUTIONS CONVERGE.
QUIGLEY
AVIATION
ISSUED 912 AM CST SAT FEB 22 2025
VFR CONDITIONS AND BREEZY SOUTHWEST WINDS ARE EXPECTED TODAY.
SOME BRIEF LOW LEVEL WIND SHEAR IS POSSIBLE AT THE EASTERN
TERMINALS THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON, BUT SHOULD NOT BE TOO
WIDESPREAD. MID AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS WILL MOVE THROUGH THE
REGION, BUT WILL REMAIN WELL INTO VFR TERRITORY.
BOXELL
MARINE
ISSUED 359 AM CST SAT FEB 22 2025
GUSTY SOUTHWEST WINDS ARE IN-PROGRESS EARLY THIS MORNING AS 1036 MB
HIGH PRESSURE LINGERS OVER THE OHIO RIVER VALLEY AND 996 MB LOW
PRESSURE MOVES FROM THE HUDSON BAY INTO QUEBEC. A FEW GUSTS NEAR
GALE-FORCE REMAIN POSSIBLE THROUGH DAYBREAK, WITH READINGS GRADUALLY
TAPERING THEREAFTER. STILL BREEZY CONDITIONS WILL PROMOTE ELEVATED
WAVE HEIGHTS TODAY, WHICH WILL COMBINE WITH SUB-FREEZING AIR
TEMPERATURES TO SUPPORT LIGHT TO MODERATE FREEZING SPRAY POTENTIAL
THROUGH NOON CST. SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL CONTINUE INTO THE DAY ON
SUNDAY AS 994 MB LOW PRESSURE MOVES INTO THE CANADIAN GREAT PLAINS
AND 1020 MB HIGH PRESSURE MOVES FROM THE SOUTHERN HUDSON BAY INTO
NORTHERN QUEBEC. AN UPPER DISTURBANCE WILL PROGRESS FROM THE UPPER
PENINSULA OF MICHIGAN INTO ONTARIO SUNDAY NIGHT, BRINGING CHANCES
FOR RAIN AND SNOW TO THE NORTHERN HALF OF LAKE MICHIGAN.
BREEZY SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH MUCH OF TODAY IN
NEARSHORE ZONES. GUSTS UP TO 25 KNOTS WILL BE POSSIBLE THROUGH
DAYBREAK FROM SHEBOYGAN TO NORTH POINT LIGHT, AND THROUGH MID-
AFTERNOON FROM NORTH POINT LIGHT TO WINTHROP HARBOR. A SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY HAS THUS BEEN ISSUED THROUGH 6 AM CST THIS MORNING FROM
FROM NORTH POINT LIGHT TO THE MANITOWOC-SHEBOYGAN COUNTY LINE, AND
THROUGH 3 PM CST THIS AFTERNOON FROM NORTH POINT LIGHT SOUTH TO
WINTHROP HARBOR. SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL BECOME GUSTY ONCE AGAIN SUNDAY
NIGHT INTO MONDAY, WHEN ADDITIONAL GUSTS NEAR SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
LEVELS WILL BE POSSIBLE.
QUIGLEY
MKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
WI...NONE.
LM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY...LMZ645-LMZ646 UNTIL 3 PM SATURDAY.
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