512
FXUS63 KMKX 290018
AFDMKX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MILWAUKEE/SULLIVAN WI
718 PM CDT TUE JUL 28 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- HIGH SWIM RISK CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE INTO WEDNESDAY
MORNING ALONG ALL LAKE MICHIGAN BEACHES DUE TO HIGH WAVES AND
CURRENTS. A BEACH HAZARD STATEMENT IS IN EFFECT.
- WARM AND HUMID CONDITIONS RETURN THURSDAY. SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE THURSDAY EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY,
BUT ARE MOST LIKELY FRIDAY EVENING.
UPDATE
ISSUED 712 PM CDT TUE JUL 28 2026
FORECAST DETAILS REMAIN ON TRACK THIS EVENING. SOME FOG CAN'T BE
RULED OUT OVERNIGHT IN AND AROUND THE WISCONSIN RIVER VALLEY.
CMILLER
SHORT TERM
ISSUED 145 PM CDT TUE JUL 28 2026
TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT:
UPPER LEVEL RIDGING ALOFT WILL SLOWLY MOVE EAST WITH TIME WITH
A SFC HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM THAT WILL STRETCH FROM JAMES BAY INTO
THE OHIO RIVER VALLEY THROUGH THURSDAY. WITH LARGE SCALE
SUBSIDENCE ACROSS WISCONSIN FOR THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS, EXPECT
WEATHER TO BE LARGELY QUIET. DAYTIME HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL
REMAIN WARM IN THE LOWER TO UPPER 80S WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE
UPPER 50S TO MID 60S. THE COOLEST TEMPERATURES WILL BE THIS
AFTERNOON THROUGH TONIGHT. WITH THE COOL TEMPERATURES, LIGHT
WINDS AND CLEAR SKIES, THERE IS A CHANCE FOR SOME PATCHY FOG TO
DEVELOP ACROSS LOW LYING AREAS WEST OF MADISON. ANY FOG THAT
DOES DEVELOP LATE TONIGHT SHOULD DIMINISH QUICKLY AFTER SUNRISE
WEDNESDAY. A LAKE BREEZE IS EXPECTED DURING THE AFTERNOON AND
EVENING HOURS BOTH WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. THE ONLY UNCERTAINTY
WITH THE LAKEBREEZE IS HOW FAR INLAND IT MOVES EACH DAY.
SUNSETS AND RISES MAY BE A BIT MORE VIBRANT AT TIMES
WITH SMOKE ALOFT POSSIBLE. THE SMOKE CAN BE SEEN ON VISIBLE
SATELLITE AS AN SLIGHT GREY SHADOW OR MILKY CLOUD KIND OF
APPEARANCE. THIS IS A VERTICALLY INTEGRATED SMOKE FROM THE
PACIFIC NORTHWEST. SFC SMOKE CONCENTRATIONS ARE EXPECTED TO
REMAIN LOW, THUS MAKING AIR QUALITY CONCERNS LOW.
PATTERSON
LONG TERM
ISSUED 145 PM CDT TUE JUL 28 2026
FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY:
THE UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE BEGINS TO BREAK DOWN HEADING INTO FRIDAY
AS AN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH DIGS SOUTHWARD. THIS TROUGH LOOKS TO
PROGRESS THROUGH THE UPPER MIDWEST DURING THE DAY DRAGGING MID-
LEVEL VORTICITY ACROSS THE REGION. ACCOMPANYING THIS TROUGH WILL
BE A SURFACE LOW PROGGED TO MOVE FROM THE DAKOTAS DOWN ACROSS
THE CORN BELT AND INTO CENTRAL IL/IN THROUGH THE DAY. GIVEN THE
LATEST MID-RANGE MODEL TRACKS THIS WILL LIKELY KEEP SOUTHERN WI
ON THE COOLER SIDE OF THE SYSTEM, WITH THE WARM SECTOR FURTHER
SOUTH. HOWEVER, STILL LOOKING AT LOW-LEVEL WAA AND MOISTURE TO
WRAP AROUND ON THE NORTH SIDE OF THE LOW TO BRING INCREASE
SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES TO OUR NECK OF THE WOODS. THE
RAINFALL AMOUNT AND DURATION WILL DEPEND ON WHICH MODEL TRACK
SCENARIO MATERIALIZES AS A MORE NORTHERN TRACK AS SEEN BY GFS
MEMBERS FAVORS A LARGE RAINFALL WINDOW WHILE A SOUTHERN TRACK
FAVORS A SMALL WINDOW GIVEN ONLY A GLANCING CHANCE. WHILE NOT
EXPECTING THIS ACTIVITY TO AMOUNT TO MUCH, THERE IS ENOUGH
INSTABILITY TO SUPPORT SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS AND THE POTENTIAL
FOR SOME SMALL HAIL. WE WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR THE FORECASTS
EVOLUTION OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS.
BEHIND THIS END OF THE WEEK SYSTEM, EXPECT NORTHWESTERLY FLOW
TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE WEEKEND AS THE UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE BUILDS
BACK ACROSS THE REGION. EXPECT TEMPS TO GRADUALLY WARM THROUGH
THE START OF NEXT WEEK BEFORE THE UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE FLATTENS OUT
AND BECOMES MORE ZONAL. BUT A GENERALLY QUIET PATTERN IS
EXPECTED THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS
ACROSS THE REGION.
WAGNER
AVIATION
ISSUED 716 PM CDT TUE JUL 28 2026
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD, SAVE FOR
SOME CHANCES FOR FOG OVERNIGHT IN AND AROUND THE WISCONSIN RIVER
VALLEY. EXPECT LIGHT EAST TO NORTHEAST WINDS THIS EVENING, WITH
GUSTS AT KMKE AND KENW ENDING OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS. WINDS
TOMORROW WILL BE LIGHT AND VARIABLE AS A HIGH PRESSURE CENTER
MOVES OVERHEAD.
CMILLER
MARINE
ISSUED 145 PM CDT TUE JUL 28 2026
NORTHERLY WINDS OVER THE LAKE TODAY WILL BE BREEZY WITH GUSTS
AROUND 30 KTS EXPECTED THROUGH TUESDAY. A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
IS IN EFFECT FOR THE NEARSHORE ZONES UNTIL LATE TONIGHT DUE TO
THE BREEZY NORTH WINDS AND BUILDING WAVES OF 3-5 FEET. AS HIGH
PRESSURE AROUND 30.0 INCHES BUILDS INTO THE NORTHERN GREAT LAKES
TONIGHT NORTH WINDS WILL DIMINISH BECOMING LIGHT AND VARIABLE AT
TIMES WEDNESDAY. THE HIGH WILL MAINTAIN LIGHT SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST
WINDS ACROSS THE LAKE THROUGH FRIDAY.
PATTERSON
MKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
WI...BEACH HAZARDS STATEMENT...WIZ052-WIZ060-WIZ066-WIZ071-WIZ072
UNTIL 10 AM WEDNESDAY.
LM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY...LMZ643-LMZ644 UNTIL 1 AM WEDNESDAY.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY...LMZ645-LMZ646 UNTIL 7 AM WEDNESDAY.
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