539
FXUS63 KMKX 160557
AFDMKX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MILWAUKEE/SULLIVAN WI
1257 AM CDT THU JUL 16 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- HOT AND HUMID CONDITIONS CONTINUE THROUGH FRIDAY, BUT NOT
QUITE AS HOT AS THE LAST COUPLE DAYS.
- ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES ALONG
AND WEST OF I-90 CORRIDOR THURSDAY AFTERNOON.
- WILDFIRE SMOKE FROM ACROSS NORTHERN MN AND NORTHWESTERN
ONTARIO WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THURSDAY CONTRIBUTING TO
UNHEALTHY AIR QUALITY. WI DNR ISSUED AIR QUALITY ALERT FOR
ALL SOUTHERN WI THROUGH THURSDAY FOR UNHEALTHY TO VERY
UNHEALTHY CONDITIONS.
- SHOWER AND STORM CHANCES GRADUALLY INCREASE FOR THE END OF THE
WEEK INTO THE WEEKEND ALONG WITH CLOSER TO NORMAL TEMPS.
SHORT TERM
ISSUED 1257 AM CDT THU JUL 16 2026
TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY:
AREAS OF SMOKE ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TONIGHT INTO THURSDAY
ACROSS SOUTHERN WISCONSIN. VISIBILITIES OF 3-6 MILES ARE LIKELY
AND MAY DIP TO 1-3 MILES AT TIMES. THE LATEST HRRR NEAR SURFACE
SMOKE SUGGESTS SOME IMPROVEMENT POSSIBLE BY TOMORROW AFTERNOON
ALONG AND SOUTHWEST OF A LINE FROM THE WISCONSIN DELLS TO
BURLINGTON. ON THE OTHER HAND, THE HRRR IS SHOWING A POTENTIAL
SURGE OF MORE SMOKE FROM THE EAST/NORTHEAST IN THE AFTERNOON,
WHICH COULD KEEP THE SMOKE GOING TOWARDS THE LAKE. BY FRIDAY,
SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP, WHICH SHOULD RESULT
IN A BREAK IN THE SMOKE IN AT LEAST THE LOWER LEVELS.
HOT AND HUMID CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PERSIST THURSDAY AND
FRIDAY, THOUGH LIKELY A FEW DEGREES SHY OF THE TEMPS FROM THE
LAST COUPLE DAYS. ADDITIONALLY, IT'S UNCERTAIN HOW MUCH SMOKE
WILL IMPACT THE HIGHS THURSDAY, SO KEPT THE FORECAST NEAR THE
MIDDLE OF MODEL SOLUTIONS.
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE TOMORROW
AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING, PARTICULARLY ALONG/SOUTHWEST OF A
LINE FROM THE WISCONSIN DELLS TO JANESVILLE. THIS AREA WILL BE
ON THE HIGHER DEWPOINT SIDE OF A MOISTURE BOUNDARY AND WILL ALSO
HAVE THE BEST CHANCE TO SEE A REDUCTION IN SMOKE AND THEREFORE
MORE HEATING/INSTABILITY. SCATTERED SHOWERS/STORMS WILL BE
POSSIBLE ON FRIDAY AS WELL. COULD SEE BRIEF DOWNPOURS BOTH THU
AND FRI WITH PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES AROUND 1.75".
DDV
LONG TERM
ISSUED 1257 AM CDT THU JUL 16 2026
SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY:
A COLD FRONT WILL DROP THROUGH DURING THE DAY SATURDAY AND MAY
BRING SCATTERED STORMS TO SOUTHERN WISCONSIN. LATEST MODEL
TRENDS KEEP THE HIGHER PRECIP CHANCES SOUTH AND EAST, THOUGH. IT
WILL BE WARM AND HUMID AGAIN SATURDAY. WITH COOLER AND DRIER
CONDITIONS NOT EXPECTED TO ARRIVE UNTIL AT LEAST THE EVENING
HOURS. DRY WEATHER AND NEAR NORMAL TEMPS ARE THEN EXPECTED
SUNDAY UNDER HIGH PRESSURE.
ANOTHER LOW AND FRONT WILL BRING STORM CHANCES ON MONDAY ALONG
WITH BRIEFLY WARMER AND MORE HUMID CONDITIONS AHEAD OF THE
FRONT. HIGH PRESSURE WILL FOLLOW THIS SYSTEM, WITH NEAR NORMAL
TEMPS AND DRY WEATHER LIKELY FOR TUE AND WED.
DDV
AVIATION
ISSUED 1257 AM CDT THU JUL 16 2026
COULD SEE A SHOWER OR TWO OVERNIGHT, BUT OTHERWISE DRY WEATHER
IS EXPECTED. ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL BE
POSSIBLE TOMORROW AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING, MAINLY ALONG AND
SOUTHWEST OF A LINE FROM THE WISCONSIN DELLS TO BURLINGTON.
THE OTHER FOCUS FOR THE OVERNIGHT HOURS INTO THURSDAY WILL BE
TRACKING THE PROGRESSION OF SMOKE FROM CANADIAN WILDFIRES INTO
SOUTHERN WISCONSIN. MUCH OF THE FORECAST AREA WILL EXPERIENCE
AT LEAST SOME SURFACE SMOKE TONIGHT INTO THURSDAY. VISIBILITIES
COULD DROP AS LOW AS 1-3 MILES IN AREAS THAT DO SEE THE SMOKE.
VISIBILITIES MAY IMPROVE DURING THE DAY TOMORROW, ESPECIALLY
FROM MADISON SOUTHWESTWARD, THOUGH THERE COULD BE ANOTHER SURGE
OF SMOKE FROM THE NORTHEAST IN THE AFTERNOON.
DDV
MARINE
ISSUED 1257 AM CDT THU JUL 16 2026
A BACK DOOR COLD FRONT HAS BROUGHT A NORTHERLY WIND SHIFT
ACROSS THE LAKE WHICH WILL CONTINUE INTO THURSDAY. ADDITIONAL
SEEING WILDFIRE SMOKE FROM NORTHERN MN AND NORTHWESTERN ONTARIO
REDUCING VISIBILITY ACROSS THE NORTHERN THIRD OF THE OPEN WATERS
TO 1 NM OR LESS AT TIMES LIKELY INTO THURSDAY. THUS A MARINE
DENSE SMOKE ADVISORY CONTINUES. SMOKE IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TO
SPREAD SOUTHWARD, BUT UNCERTAIN ON HOW LOW VISIBILITIES WILL
FALL FOR THE SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF LAKE MICHIGAN. WILL CONTINUE
TO MONITOR IF AN EXPANSION OF THE ADVISORY WILL BE NEEDED.
OTHERWISE, LIGHTER WINDS EXPECTED AGAIN ON THURSDAY AS ANOTHER HIGH
PRESSURE AROUND 30.1 INCHES BRIEFLY BUILDS BACK INTO THE REGION
BEFORE INFLUENCE FROM A LOW PRESSURE AROUND 29.7 INCHES DEVELOPING
OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS PUSHES EASTWARD THROUGH THE WEEKEND
BRINGING MORE SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW FOR FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY. THEN AS
THE LOW TRACKING NORTHEASTWARD, IT WILL DRAG A COLD FRONT ACROSS THE
LAKE RESULTING IN NORTHERLY WIND SHIFT THROUGH THE DAY SATURDAY WITH
ANOTHER HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING OVER THE REGION FOR SUNDAY.
ADDITIONALLY WILL SEE PERIODIC SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES
ACROSS THE LAKE FOR THE END OF THE WEEK THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
DDV
MKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
WI...NONE.
LM...NONE.
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