460
FXUS63 KMKX 232040
AFDMKX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MILWAUKEE/SULLIVAN WI
340 PM CDT WED SEP 23 2020
SHORT TERM
(ISSUED 340 PM CDT WED SEP 23 2020)
TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT:
HIGH CLOUDS WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA TONIGHT, BEFORE LOWER
CLOUDS START TO MOVE INTO THE AREA LATER TONIGHT. MILD LOWS IN
THE MIDDLE 50S ARE EXPECTED TONIGHT, WITH LIGHT WINDS.
THE WEAKENING SURFACE LOW WILL DISSIPATE AS IT MOVES EAST TOWARD
THE REGION THURSDAY, WITH A 500 MB SHORTWAVE TROUGH SLIDING
SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE AREA THURSDAY INTO THURSDAY EVENING. THERE
IS MODEST AMOUNTS OF MOISTURE IN THE AIR COLUMN PER FORECAST
SOUNDINGS. THE BEST UPWARD VERTICAL MOTION SHOULD BE NORTH OF THE
AREA, CLOSER TO THE SURFACE BOUNDARY THERE.
KEPT CHANCE POPS FOR SHOWERS GOING, MAINLY LATER THURSDAY MORNING
INTO THE EARLY EVENING. NORTHERN AREAS HAVE THE BEST SHOT AT
SEEING THE SHOWERS. KEPT SMALL CHANCES FOR THUNDER GOING, AS
SOUNDINGS KEEP SOME TALL SKINNY MEAN LAYER CAPE ABOVE THE CAP.
CLOUDS MAY LIMIT HIGHS A BIT, BUT SHOULD STILL MAKE THE MIDDLE 70S
IN MOST AREAS. QUIET WEATHER RETURNS FOR THE REST OF THURSDAY
NIGHT, WITH DECREASING CLOUDS.
WOOD
LONG TERM
(ISSUED 340 PM CDT WED SEP 23 2020)
FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY:
WARM AIR ADVECTION ON INCREASING SOUTH WINDS WILL BRING ANOTHER
WARM DAY TO THE AREA FRIDAY, WITH HIGHS REACHING AROUND 80. IT MAY
GET A BIT WARMER WITH A FAIR AMOUNT OF SUNSHINE.
THE WARM TEMPERATURES SHOULD LINGER INTO SATURDAY, AHEAD OF THE
STRONG COLD FRONT. KEPT CHANCES FOR SHOWERS GOING MAINLY SATURDAY
AFTERNOON AND EVENING, UNTIL THE MAIN COLD FRONT PUSHES SOUTHEAST
THROUGH THE AREA SATURDAY NIGHT. AGAIN, THE BEST UPWARD VERTICAL
MOTION AND MOISTURE MAY BE NORTH OF THE AREA, SO SOME UNCERTAINTY
WITH RAIN CHANCES DURING THIS PERIOD.
ENSEMBLES CONTINUE TO SUPPORT A BIG PATTERN SHIFT SUNDAY INTO NEXT
WEEK. A LARGE 500 MB TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO DIG AND AMPLIFY OVER
THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES INTO NORTHEAST CANADA DURING THIS PERIOD,
WITH SEVERAL VORTICITY MAXIMA ROTATING THROUGH THE REGION. THIS
WILL BRING MUCH COOLER TEMPERATURES INTO THE REGION, WITH
ENSEMBLES SHOWING SMALL SPREAD IN TEMPERATURE RANGES. THIS
INDICATES FAIRLY HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THE BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES
OCCURRING, ESPECIALLY SUNDAY NIGHT INTO THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.
SHOWER CHANCES WILL OCCUR AT TIMES WITHIN THIS LONGWAVE TROUGH
PATTERN.
WOOD
AVIATION
(ISSUED 340 PM CDT WED SEP 23 2020)
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED INTO THURSDAY ACROSS THE AREA. LIGHT
SOUTHWEST WINDS ARE EXPECTED INTO EARLY THIS EVENING, WITH THE
SOUTHEAST LAKE BREEZE REMAINING EAST OF THE TERMINALS NEAR LAKE
MICHIGAN. SOME HIGH CLOUDS WILL PASS THROUGH THE AREA AS WELL INTO
TONIGHT. LIGHT WINDS ARE EXPECTED TONIGHT INTO EARLY THURSDAY,
WITH SOME GROUND FOG POSSIBLE IN LOW LYING AREAS.
SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST WINDS ARE EXPECTED THURSDAY, WITH SOME GUSTS
TO 18 KNOTS IN THE AFTERNOON. CLOUDS ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE
INTO THURSDAY, WITH SOME SHOWERS POSSIBLE THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND
NIGHT. A FEW THUNDERSTORMS MAY OCCUR AS WELL.
WOOD
MARINE
(ISSUED 340 PM CDT WED SEP 23 2020)
THE FOG IS DISSIPATING OVER THE FAR NORTHERN PORTIONS OF LAKE
MICHIGAN. MORE FOG IS POSSIBLE OVERNIGHT INTO THURSDAY MORNING IN
NORTHERN PARTS OF THE LAKE. NOT SURE IF THIS WILL BE DENSE OR
NOW, BUT IT WILL BEAR WATCHING.
OTHERWISE, SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST WINDS ARE EXPECTED INTO THURSDAY.
WINDS WILL INCREASE ON THURSDAY, WITH GUSTS TO 20 KNOTS OR SO.
SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST WINDS INCREASE MORE FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY, WITH
BUILDING WAVES. A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY MAY BE NEEDED DURING THIS
PERIOD, MAINLY NORTH OF NORTH POINT LIGHTHOUSE WHERE THE HIGHEST
WAVES ARE FORECAST.
GUSTY WEST WINDS ARE THEN FORECAST BEHIND A STRONG COLD FRONT FOR
SUNDAY INTO THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. MAY SEE SOME GALES AT TIMES
OVER THE LAKE MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY NIGHT.
WOOD
MKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
WI...NONE.
LM...NONE.
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