486
FXUS63 KMKX 240010
AFDMKX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MILWAUKEE/SULLIVAN WI
610 PM CST MON FEB 23 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- GALE WARNING ISSUED FOR TUESDAY FOR ALL OF THE OPEN WATERS OF
LAKE MI DUE TO SOUTHERLY GALES.
- BRIEF BURST OF LIGHT SNOW TUESDAY AFTERNOON WITH A COLD
FRONTAL PASSAGE. THIS WILL LIKELY AFFECT THE LATE AFTERNOON
AND EARLY EVENING COMMUTE.
- SNOW CHANCES ONLY 20-30 PERCENT WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY
MORNING WITH THE TRACK OF A WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE TRENDING
FARTHER TO THE SOUTH.
UPDATE
ISSUED 610 PM CST MON FEB 23 2026
AS A SFC RIDGE MOVES OVERHEAD LATER THIS EVENING THROUGH TONIGHT
WINDS WILL DECREASE AND CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN DRY OVERNIGHT.
WAA AND SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL SET UP BEHIND THIS HIGH PRESSURE AS
IT EXITS TO THE EAST EARLY TUESDAY MORNING. NO MAJOR CHANGES TO
THE FOREST TONIGHT.
PATTERSON
SHORT TERM
ISSUED 134 PM CST MON FEB 23 2026
THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH THURSDAY:
BROKEN STRATOCUMULUS CLOUDS ARE ONLY LINGERING OVER EAST
CENTRAL WI EARLY THIS AFTERNOON, BUT WILL ALSO DISSIPATE THROUGH
THE DAY. POLAR HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE UPPER MS RIVER VALLEY
WILL MOVE ACROSS SRN WI THIS EVENING FOLLOWED BY THE ONSET OF
LGT SLY WINDS AND WARM ADVECTION. LOW TEMPS SHOULD BE ABLE TO
DROP INTO THE TEENS BEFORE THE CLOUDS OR SLY WINDS DETERS THE
COOLING.
BREEZY SSWLY WINDS AND WARM ADVECTION WILL OCCUR ON TUE AS
DEEPENING LOW PRESSURE TRACKS FROM NW MN INTO THE NRN GREAT
LAKES AS A 992 MB LOW. THIS WILL BOOST HIGH TEMPS BACK ABOVE
FREEZING WITH MIDDLE TO UPPER 30S FORECAST. THE COLD FRONT WILL
THEN PASS LATE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING AND BE ACCOMPANIED BY
A NARROW BAND OF LIGHT SNOW. THE LEFT EXIT REGION OF THE UPPER
JET AND PVA WILL PROVIDE UPPER SUPPORT TO LOW TO MID LEVEL
FRONTOGENESIS GIVING CONFIDENCE THAT THE TROPOSPHERE WILL
BRIEFLY SATURATE. AN HOUR OR TWO OF 1-2SM LIGHT SNOW CAN BE
EXPECTED. NWLY WINDS AND COLD ADVECTION TO THEN PREVAIL TUE NT-
WED, WHILE LOW PRESSURE WILL FILL AND REACH SRN QUEBEC BY LATE
WED. A WEAK SFC RIDGE WILL THEN RESIDE OVER THE REGION FOR WED
NT-THU BUT 20-30 PERCENT CHANCES FOR LIGHT SNOW ARE FORECAST AS
A SHORTWAVE TROUGH AND BAND OF SNOW LIKELY PASSES TO THE SOUTH,
BUT CANNOT COMPLETELY RULE OUT THE SNOW OVER SRN WI.
GEHRING
LONG TERM
ISSUED 134 PM CST MON FEB 23 2026
THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY:
THE MODELS DEPICT STRONG CYCLOGENESIS FROM MANITOBA TO NEAR
JAMES BAY, CANADA FROM EARLY FRI TO 12Z SAT. BREEZY SWLY WINDS
AND WARM ADVECTION IS EXPECTED TO BOOST TEMPS INTO THE 50S OVER
SRN WI ON FRI, FOLLOWED BY A COLD FRONT AND LOW TEMPS MAINLY IN
THE 20S FOR SAT AM. 20 PERCENT CHANCES FOR LIGHT SNOW ARE
FORECAST ON SAT WITH HIGHS IN THE 30S.
THERE IS THEN UNCERTAINTY AMONG THE EXTENDED MODELS ON THE TRACK
AND TIMING OF A WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE FROM THE SRN GREAT PLAINS
INTO THE OHIO VALLEY, AND WHETHER ANY SNOW CAN SPREAD INTO SRN
WI. THE TRACK AND STRENGTH OF A LARGE POLAR HIGH ACROSS SRN
CANADA AND THE NRN GREAT LAKES WILL PLAY A ROLE IN THE EVENTUAL
EVOLUTION OF THIS SYSTEM AND SNOW CHANCES. 30-40 PERCENT CHANCES
FOR SNOW ARE FORECAST AT THIS TIME.
GEHRING
AVIATION
ISSUED 610 PM CST MON FEB 23 2026
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING. HIGH
PRESSURE WILL MOVE THROUGH THE STATE LATE THIS EVENING INTO
TONIGHT BRINGING LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS. THERE ARE SOME
SCATTERED UPPER LEVEL CLOUDS TRAVERSING THE GREAT LAKES REGION
DURING THIS TIME. WINDS BECOME SOUTHERLY EARLY TUESDAY MORNING
AS THE HIGH EXITS TO THE EAST. CLOUD COVER WILL THEN INCREASE
AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM AND COLD FRONT. MVFR
TO IFR CONDITIONS WILL BE POSSIBLE LATE TUESDAY AFTERNOON
THROUGH TUESDAY EVENING AS SNOW SHOWERS MOVE IN. THIS WILL BE
DUE TO SOME LOWER CEILINGS AROUND 2-4 KFT AND VISIBILITIES
AROUND 3-6 SM WITH THE SNOW. THE BEST CHANCES FOR MEASURABLE
SNOW WILL BE ACROSS CENTRAL WISCONSIN, BUT ALL OF SOUTHERN
WISCONSIN CAN EXPECT AT LEAST FLURRIES/LIGHT SNOW. A DUSTING TO
A COUPLE TENTHS OF AN INCH OF SNOW WILL BE POSSIBLE. EAST
CENTRAL TERMINALS (IE: SBM) COULD SEE UP TO AN INCH, IF THE
SNOW LASTS A COUPLE HOURS. SNOW RATES WILL BE AROUND 0.5 INCH
PER HOUR OR LESS. THIS WILL BE A WET PACKING SNOW. BREEZY SOUTH
TO SOUTHWEST WINDS ARE EXPECTED AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING COLD
FRONT. BEHIND THE FRONT BREEZY WEST TO WEST- NORTHWEST WINDS ARE
EXPECTED THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT.
PATTERSON
MARINE
ISSUED 134 PM CST MON FEB 23 2026
BRISK NORTHERLY WINDS WILL GRADUALLY DIMINISH INTO THIS EVENING
AS HIGH PRESSURE OF 30.7 INCHES OVER THE UPPER MS RIVER VALLEY
MOVES ACROSS LAKE MICHIGAN TONIGHT. LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS
ARE EXPECTED TONIGHT AS THE HIGH PASSES.
SOUTHERLY GALES ARE THEN EXPECTED TO DEVELOP LATE TUESDAY
MORNING AND LAST THROUGH THE AFTERNOON FOR ALL OF LAKE MICHIGAN.
A GALE WARNING HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR THIS TIME PERIOD. THE SOUTHERLY
GALES WILL DEVELOP AS STRENGTHENING LOW PRESSURE AROUND 29.3
INCHES TRACKS FROM NORTHERN MINNESOTA ON MONDAY THROUGH THE
NORTHERN GREAT LAKES MONDAY NIGHT.
WINDS WILL SHIFT MORE WEST NORTHWEST BEHIND THE LOW AND
ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT FOR TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY. WINDS WILL
REMAIN BRISK BUT UNDER GALE FORCE.
GEHRING
MKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
WI...NONE.
LM...GALE WARNING...LMZ080-LMZ261-LMZ362-LMZ364-LMZ366-LMZ563-
LMZ565-LMZ567-LMZ669-LMZ671-LMZ673-LMZ675-LMZ777-LMZ779-
LMZ868-LMZ870-LMZ872-LMZ874-LMZ876-LMZ878...9 AM TUESDAY
TO 6 PM TUESDAY.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY...LMZ643-LMZ644-LMZ645-LMZ646 UNTIL 6 PM
MONDAY.
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