268
FXUS63 KMKX 220835
AFDMKX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MILWAUKEE/SULLIVAN WI
335 AM CDT FRI SEP 22 2023
SHORT TERM
(ISSUED 334 AM CDT FRI SEP 22 2023)
TODAY AND TONIGHT:
FORECAST AREA SITS BETWEEN TWO TROUGHS OF LOW PRESSURE. PRIMARY
FOCUS IS ON THE WESTERN LOW OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS THE NEXT TWO
DAYS. SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW AHEAD OF THIS SYSTEM TODAY WITH LOW AND
MID LEVEL MOISTURE STILL IN PLACE. AS A RESULT, THERE WILL BE
SPOTTY SHOWERS OVER SOUTHERN WISCONSIN TODAY. MODELS BEGIN TO SHOW
DRYING IN THESE LEVELS OVER THE EASTERN HALF OF FORECAST AREA
LATER TODAY, SPECIFICALLY AFTER 00Z SATURDAY. REGARDLESS, WILL
EXPECT A MOSTLY CLOUDY SKY TODAY, FOLLOWED BY DECREASING CLOUDS
TONIGHT ESPECIALLY CLOSER TO LAKE MICHIGAN.
AS FOR WINDS, SURFACE FLOW WILL BE SOUTHEASTERLY THROUGH TONIGHT.
AND TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN WARM FOR THE BEGINNING OF FALL.
KPL
LONG TERM
(ISSUED 334 AM CDT FRI SEP 22 2023)
SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY:
EAST TO SOUTHEAST SURFACE FLOW WILL CONTINUE INTO THIS WEEKEND.
THE BIGGER CHANGE WILL COME ON SATURDAY OVER SOUTHERN WISCONSIN
WITH ADDITIONAL SUBSIDENCE AND DRYING. THIS WILL RESULT IN WARM
TEMPERATURES ALONG WITH PARTLY TO MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES. BENIGN AND
DRY WEATHER CONTINUES INTO SATURDAY NIGHT.
LOWER RELATIVE HUMIDITIES CONTINUE ACROSS THE EASTERN HALF OF THE
FORECAST AREA EARLY SUNDAY. THE AFOREMENTIONED TROUGH OF LOW
PRESSURE IN THE SHORT TERM FORECAST WILL SLOWLY MEANDER TO THE
EAST, SLOWED BY STRONG HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT OVER THE HUDSON BAY
AREA OF CANADA. HOWEVER, SOME PROGRESSION OF QPF BLEEDS INTO FAR
WESTERN WISCONSIN LATER ON SUNDAY, MORE LIKELY DURING THE EVENING
AND THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT. BUT MODELS REALLY DON'T SHOW IT MAKING
PROGRESS INTO OUR FAR WESTERN COUNTIES INCLUDING IOWA, LAFAYETTE,
AND SAUK. WHAT IT WILL DO IS SETUP A SHARP MOISTURE GRADIENT
SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY ALONG THE WESTERN BORDER OF THESE
COUNTIES. WILL HAVE TO MONITOR INTO THE WEEKEND, BUT CURRENT
CONFIDENCE IS NOT HIGH FOR ANYTHING MORE THAN VERY LIGHT AMOUNTS
OF QPF. MUCH MORE CONFIDENCE IS A DRY FORECAST FOR THE CENTRAL
AND EASTERN PARTS OF FORECAST AREA DURING THIS TIME.
SOME OF THIS UNCERTAINTY CONTINUES INTO THE LATTER PARTS OF THE
EXTENDED FOR SOUTHERN WISCONSIN. TUESDAY COULD BRING SPOTTY LIGHT
SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WITH A PASSING COLD FRONT. NOT
EXPECTING A STRONG FRONTAL PASSAGE, BUT IT WILL LIKELY BE BREEZY
LATE MONDAY INTO TUESDAY. THEN, HEIGHTS ALOFT LOOK TO BUILD AGAIN
WITH MORE OF A POSITIVELY TILTED RIDGE FROM THE CENTRAL PLAINS
INTO THE GREAT LAKES. THIS SHOULD RESULT IN GENERALLY DRY
CONDITIONS AND LIGHT WINDS WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY.
OVERALL, THE TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN ABOVE NORMAL WITH CLOSER TO
NEAR NORMAL READINGS ON MONDAY AND TUESDAY.
KPL
AVIATION
(ISSUED 334 AM CDT FRI SEP 22 2023)
SPOTTY LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS TODAY, ESPECIALLY FROM KJVL...KMSN TO
KLNR. COULD BE A FEW AREAS OF MVFR EARLY THIS MORNING, GIVING WAY
TO VFR CONDITIONS ACROSS SOUTHERN WISCONSIN. ALTHOUGH THERE WILL
BE A FEW LINGERING SHOWERS EARLY THIS EVENING, VFR WILL PERSIST
FOR ALL AIRPORT SITES. THEN DECREASING CLOUDS TONIGHT WITH GOOD
VISIBILITY INTO SATURDAY.
KPL
MARINE
(ISSUED 334 AM CDT FRI SEP 22 2023)
LIGHT TO MODEST WINDS WILL PREVAIL TODAY AND TONIGHT OVER LAKE
MICHIGAN, AS A SURFACE RIDGE EXTENDS SOUTH INTO THE GREAT LAKES.
IN FACT, EAST TO SOUTHEAST WINDS SHOULD DOMINATE INTO THE WEEKEND.
ONLY ISOLATED RAIN SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE OVER THE LAKE TODAY.
VISIBILITIES COULD BE IMPACTED BY AREAS OF FOG TONIGHT, BUT THERE
WILL BE PLENTY OF SUNSHINE FOR SATURDAY.
KPL
MKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
WI...NONE.
LM...NONE.
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