737
FXUS63 KMKX 040615
AFDMKX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MILWAUKEE/SULLIVAN WI
115 AM CDT TUE AUG 4 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- BEACH HAZARDS STATEMENT IN EFFECT THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING
AT SHEBOYGAN COUNTY BEACHES. STAY OUT OF THE WATER AND AWAY
FROM DANGEROUS AREAS LIKE PIERS AND BREAKWALLS!
- PERIODS OF RAIN AND STORMS EXPECTED STARTING THIS AFTERNOON
AND CONTINUING INTO WEDNESDAY. STORMS COULD PRODUCE HEAVY
DOWNPOURS. AN ISOLATED SEVERE STORM IS POSSIBLE TUESDAY
AFTERNOON/EVENING.
- HEAT & HUMIDITY RETURN THIS WEEKEND (HIGHS IN THE MID 80S AND
HEAT INDEX VALUES IN THE LOW 90S).
- STORM CHANCES RETURN EARLY NEXT WEEK (SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY).
SHORT TERM
ISSUED 115 AM CDT TUE AUG 4 2026
TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT:
INCREASING CLOUD COVER TODAY AHEAD OF A SLOW-MOVING COLD FRONT,
WITH HIGHS IN THE LOW TO MID-80S. INSTABILITY WILL INCREASE
THROUGHOUT THE MORNING HOURS, WITH SURFACE-BASED CAPE OF 1000 TO
1500 J/KG EXPECTED TO BUILD RIGHT AHEAD OF THE FRONT DURING THE
AFTERNOON. VERY LOW BULK SHEAR AND MINIMAL SHEAR IN THE
SURFACE-850 MB LEVEL WILL PREVENT THE MAJORITY OF SEVERE WEATHER
FROM DEVELOPING, BUT AN ISOLATED MICROBURST OR HAILSTORM CANNOT
BE RULED OUT WITH PLENTY OF MOISTURE TO WORK WITH (PWATS OVER
1.75 INCH).
THE FRONT IS EXPECTED TO STALL OVER SOUTHERN WISCONSIN OVERNIGHT
TONIGHT, WITH ADDITIONAL ROUNDS OF SHOWERS AND ISOLATED STORMS
POSSIBLE THROUGHOUT THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. BULK SHEAR INCREASES TO
NEAR 50 KT OVERNIGHT, BUT VERY LITTLE FORCING OUTSIDE OF THE
SURFACE FRONT AS WELL AS VERY LOW INSTABILITY (~500 J/KG) WILL
PREVENT SEVERE ACTIVITY. HOWEVER, HIGH PWATS NEARING 2 INCHES
MAY LEAD TO LOCALIZED FLOODING FOR REGIONS THAT SEE MULTIPLE
ROUNDS OF RAINFALL.
WEDNESDAY, LOW PRESSURE EJECTS INTO CENTRAL ILLINOIS, BRINGING
ADDITIONAL POTENTIAL FOR RAIN AND STORMS WITHIN ITS NORTHERN
CONVERGENT BAND THROUGHOUT THE DAY. SOME CAMS ARE INDICATING
POTENTIAL FOR LOW PRESSURE TO LIFT INTO NORTHERN ILLINOIS IF
OVERNIGHT CONVECTION CLEARS EARLY ENOUGH TO DESTABILIZE IN
SOUTHERN WISCONSIN. HOWEVER, MAJORITY OF MODELING INDICATES A
MORE BROAD REGION OF PRECIPITATION WITH CAPE AROUND 500 J/KG AND
PWATS REMAINING IN THE 1.75-2 INCHES RANGE. PRIMARY HAZARD
REMAINS LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN.
WEDNESDAY NIGHT, PRECIPITATION TAPERS OFF FROM NORTHWEST TO
SOUTHEAST AS LOW PRESSURE WEAKENS AND EXITS INTO INDIANA. EXPECT
LOWS IN THE UPPER 50S TO LOW 60S. RAINFALL TOTALS AROUND AN INCH
ARE EXPECTED ALONG AND SOUTH OF THE I-94 CORRIDOR, WITH RAINFALL
TOTALS BELOW AN INCH NORTH OF I-94. CLOSE TO THE WI/IL BORDER,
UP TO 2 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE (~15% CHANCE). LOCALLY HIGHER TOTALS
ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN AREAS THAT SEE MULTIPLE ROUNDS OF STORMS.
MH
LONG TERM
ISSUED 115 AM CDT TUE AUG 4 2026
THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY:
HIGH PRESSURE RETURNS ON THURSDAY, WITH CLOUD COVER SLOWLY
EXITING AS LOW PRESSURE CONTINUES TO WEAKEN TO THE SOUTHEAST.
EXPECTING HIGHS IN THE UPPER 70S TO LOW 80S, WITH LIGHT AND
VARIABLE WINDS. HIGH PRESSURE LINGERS THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT
HOURS, BRINGING LOWS IN THE UPPER 50S TO LOW 60S.
FRIDAY, WINDS WILL SHIFT TO SOUTHERLY AS HIGH PRESSURE
PROPAGATES EASTWARD AND LOW PRESSURE PROPAGATES INTO THE HUDSON
BAY. EXPECT INCREASING TEMPERATURES AND HUMIDITY, WITH HIGHS IN
THE LOW 80S. SATURDAY, SOUTHERLY WINDS CONTINUE, WITH HIGHS IN
THE MID-80S. ISOLATED POP-UP STORMS ARE POSSIBLE AS A WEAK
SURFACE FRONT MOVES THROUGH NORTHERN WISCONSIN (~15% CHANCES).
SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY, LOW PRESSURE IN THE NORTHERN PLAINS
WILL BEGIN TO BRING FRONTOGENESIS/UPPER LEVEL RIDGING TO THE
WESTERN GREAT LAKES REGION, AND A RETURN TO AN ACTIVE WEATHER
PATTERN THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK. EXPECT INCREASING HEAT AND
HUMIDITY, WITH HIGHS IN THE MID TO UPPER 80S AND HEAT INDEX
VALUES AROUND 90 DEGREES. MULTIPLE SHORTWAVES RIDING OVER THE
UPPER LEVEL RIDGING WILL SERVE AS THE BASIS FOR RAIN AND STORM
CHANCES SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY, WITH EXACT TIMING AND THEREFORE
INTENSITY REMAINING UNCERTAIN AT THIS TIME (30-50% POPS
THROUGHOUT THE TIME PERIOD WILL BE REFINED AS INDIVIDUAL
SHORTWAVES BECOME MORE CLEAR LATER THIS WEEK).
MH
AVIATION
ISSUED 115 AM CDT TUE AUG 4 2026
VFR CONDITIONS CONTINUE THROUGHOUT THE MAJORITY OF THE TAF
TIMEFRAME, WITH MVFR CEILINGS/VISIBILITIES UNDERNEATH STORMS
THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING, AND MVFR CEILINGS BUILDING DOWN
OVERNIGHT TONIGHT AS SHOWERS CONTINUE ACROSS THE REGION.
LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THIS MORNING,
BECOMING STEADY AND SOUTHWESTERLY THIS AFTERNOON. GUSTS OF 15-20
KT ARE EXPECTED NEAR LAKE MICHIGAN THIS AFTERNOON. WINDS WILL
DIMINISH TONIGHT, BECOMING NORTHWESTERLY INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING
AS A FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE AREA.
MH
MARINE
ISSUED 115 AM CDT TUE AUG 4 2026
HIGH PRESSURE AROUND 30.0 INCHES OVER THE GREAT LAKES THIS
MORNING WILL GRADUALLY MOVE SOUTHEASTWARD THROUGHOUT THE DAY AS
LOW PRESSURE AROUND 29.6 INCHES MOVES INTO THE HUDSON BAY,
BRINGING SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS TO THE LAKE TODAY. GUSTS OF 25-30
KT ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE NORTHERN TWO-THIRDS, WITH CONDITIONS
HAZARDOUS TO SMALL CRAFT IN PORTIONS OF THE NEARSHORE REGIONS
NORTH OF PORT WASHINGTON THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH THIS EVENING.
WINDS WILL DIMINISH AND BECOME GENERALLY LIGHT AND NORTHWESTERLY
TONIGHT AS A COLD FRONT FROM THIS LOW PROGRESSES SOUTHWARD
THROUGH THE LAKE. THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED ALONG AND AHEAD OF
THE FRONT. RAIN AND STORMS REMAIN POSSIBLE THROUGH WEDNESDAY
NIGHT AS THIS FRONT STALLS. HIGH PRESSURE OF 30.0 INCHES WILL
BRING A RETURN TO LIGHT WINDS THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY, WITH LOW
PRESSURE DEVELOPING AGAIN IN NORTHERN CANADA FRIDAY INTO FRIDAY
NIGHT, BRINGING A RETURN TO SOUTHERLY WINDS AND CHANCES FOR
THUNDERSTORMS INTO THE WEEKEND.
MH
MKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
WI...BEACH HAZARDS STATEMENT...WIZ052...2 PM TUESDAY TO 10 PM
TUESDAY.
LM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY...LMZ643...2 PM TUESDAY TO 10 PM TUESDAY.
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