459
FXUS63 KMKX 202133
AFDMKX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MILWAUKEE/SULLIVAN WI
333 PM CST MON JAN 20 2020
SHORT TERM
TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT...FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS HIGH.
THE LAST OF THE LOW CLOUDS ARE FINALLY SCATTERING OUT THIS
AFTERNOON AND SKIES SHOULD BE CLEAR TONIGHT WITH HIGH PRESSURE
NOSING IN FROM THE NORTHERN PLAINS. THE ONLY UNCERTAINTY IS THE
POTENTIAL FOR SOME LIGHT FOG TO DEVELOP. GIVEN LOW DEWPOINTS AND
DRY AIR IN PLACE, OPTED TO LEAVE THIS OUT OF THE FORECAST. TEMPERATURES
SHOULD FALL INTO THE SINGLE DIGITS ACROSS SOUTHERN WI TONIGHT
WITH AN EXPECTED INVERSION. MANY MODELS ARE LEANING TOWARD A
SLIGHTLY WARMER FORECAST, PROBABLY DUE TO BIAS CORRECTION, SO I
UNDERCUT THE GUIDANCE.
SUNNY SKIES WILL GIVE WAY TO MID LEVEL CLOUDS MOVING IN BY TUESDAY
EVENING. HIGHS TOMORROW WILL BE IN THE LOWER 20S, SIMILAR TO
TODAY. LOWS TUESDAY NIGHT WILL BE MORE MILD THAN TONIGHT, WITH A
QUICK DROP-OFF IN THE EVENING AND THEN GRADUAL WARMING OVERNIGHT.
LONG TERM
WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT...FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS MEDIUM/HIGH...
THE NEXT SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO START PUSHING IN FROM THE WEST
WEDNESDAY ALONG A FRONTAL BOUNDARY WITH SOME INFLUENCE FROM AN UPPER
LEVEL SHORTWAVE. THERE REMAINS SOME UNCERTAINTY WITH THE TIMING AS
THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM PULLS NORTHEAST BUT GENERALLY THE WESTERN
HALF OF THE CWA SHOULD SEE SOME PRECIPITATION, LIKELY SNOW. HOWEVER,
ACCUMULATIONS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN LIGHT AT THIS POINT.
THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS MEDIUM...
AS THE WEDNESDAY SYSTEM PULLS OUT THERE MAY BE A LULL IN THE
PRECIPITATION AS THE NEXT SYSTEM PUSHES NORTHEAST THURSDAY INTO
FRIDAY. THERE STILL REMAINS PLENTY OF UNCERTAINTY IN THIS PERIOD
GENERALLY WITH THE MOST OF THE UNCERTAINTY COMING FROM INCONSISTENCY
ACROSS MODELS IN THE FORCING ALOFT. MOSTLY SNOW IS EXPECTED FOR THIS
PERIOD BUT WARMER TEMPERATURES MAY CAUSE SOME MIXED PRECIP. THE
SYSTEM INITIALLY EXPECTED FRIDAY NIGHT LOOKS TO HAVE DRIFTED
SOUTHEAST IN ITS TRACK THUS LIKELY NOT IMPACTING THE CWA AS MUCH AS
INITIALLY EXPECTED. HOWEVER, THERE IS STILL UNCERTAINTY IN THE TRACK
OF THIS SYSTEM AND WE EXPECTED THE TRACK TO CONTINUE TO CHANGE SO WE
WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR HOW THIS SYSTEM CHANGES.
SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY...FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS LOW...
GIVEN THE UNCERTAINTIES IN THE SYSTEM TRACK FRIDAY NIGHT INTO
SATURDAY, SUNDAY AND MONDAY BECOME VERY UNCERTAIN. MODELS SHOW VERY
DIFFERENT SOLUTIONS IN THE UPPER LEVELS WITH VAST DIFFERENCES IN
FORCING. THUS THIS PERIOD SHOULD BECOME MORE CLEAR AS MODELS BEGIN
TO MORE CLOSELY ALIGN AS WE GET A BETTER IDEA OF WHAT WILL HAPPEN
WITH THE SYSTEM FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY. HOWEVER THE PERIOD LOOK
LIKELY TO REMAIN DRY AT THIS POINT.
AVIATION(21Z TAF UPDATE)
THE MVFR CLOUDS ARE DIMINISHING THIS AFTERNOON AS DRIER AIR AND
HIGH PRESSURE WORK THEIR WAY INTO SOUTHERN WI. EXPECT CLEAR SKIES
TONIGHT. THERE IS A CHANCE FOR PATCHY FOG, BUT WILL KEEP IT OUT OF
THE FORECAST FOR NOW DUE TO LOW CONFIDENCE. VFR CONDITIONS
THROUGH TUESDAY EVENING.
MARINE
HIGH PRESSURE SPREADING INTO THE GREAT LAKES FROM THE
NORTHERN PLAINS WILL BRING LIGHT WINDS TO THE REGION THROUGH
TUESDAY MORNING. EXPECT INCREASING SOUTHWEST WINDS TUESDAY
AFTERNOON INTO TUESDAY NIGHT WITH THE DEPARTING HIGH. GALE FORCE
GUSTS ARE POSSIBLE OVER THE NORTH THIRD OF LAKE MICHIGAN TUESDAY
NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY.
MKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
WI...NONE.
LM...NONE.
TONIGHT/TUESDAY AND AVIATION/MARINE...CRONCE
TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY...ARK
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