874
FXUS63 KMKX 230624
AFDMKX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MILWAUKEE/SULLIVAN WI
124 AM CDT TUE JUN 23 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- CHANCES FOR THUNDERSTORMS LATE TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY
EVENING. A MARGINAL RISK FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS LATE
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING, WITH THE MAIN HAZARDS
DAMAGING WINDS AND HAIL.
- ON AND OFF THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE THIS WEEKEND INTO EARLY
NEXT WEEK.
- SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL TEMPS CONTINUE THROUGH FRIDAY WITH A
STRONG WARMING TREND EARLY NEXT WEEK, POTENTIALLY NEARING HEAT
ADVISORY CRITERIA MONDAY AND TUESDAY
SHORT TERM
ISSUED 124 AM CDT TUE JUN 23 2026
TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT:
A FEW AREAS OF PATCHY FOG IN RIVER VALLEYS THIS MORNING UNDER
CLEAR SKIES AND LOW TO CALM WINDS. ANY REMAINING FOG WILL BURN OFF
SHORTLY AFTER SUNRISE. WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN LIGHT AND
VARIABLE THROUGHOUT TODAY, WITH AN EASTERLY LAKE BREEZE
DEVELOPING DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS AND PROGRESSING INLAND
THROUGH MUCH OF SOUTHERN WISCONSIN THROUGH THE EVENING. EXPECT
HIGHS IN THE UPPER 70S INLAND, WITH HIGHS IN THE LOW 70S TO UPPER
60S NEAR LAKE MICHIGAN AND IMMEDIATELY INLAND. CLOUD COVER WILL
INCREASE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING AS A DEVELOPING LOW IN
THE NORTHERN PLAINS BEGINS TO BUILD WARM FRONTOGENESIS ACROSS
CENTRAL WISCONSIN. AN ISOLATED SHOWER IS POSSIBLE ALONG THE
FRONTOGENESIS ZONE, BUT IS NOT LIKELY (~10% CHANCE).
OVERNIGHT TONIGHT, EXPECT STORMS TO DEVELOP UPSTREAM IN MINNESOTA,
PROGRESSING SOUTHEASTWARD THROUGH THE WARM FRONTAL REGION INTO
CENTRAL WISCONSIN. MAIN HAZARD WITH THESE STORMS AT THIS TIME IS
EXPECTED TO BE LIGHTNING, AS LLJ DYNAMICS REMAIN TO THE NORTH AND
MUCAPE VALUES ONLY INCREASE TO A FEW HUNDRED J/KG. TEMPERATURES
WILL REMAIN IN THE UPPER 50S TO LOW 60S THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT
HOURS.
GOING INTO WEDNESDAY, EXPECTING SHOWERS AND STORMS TO LINGER
ACROSS CENTRAL WISCONSIN AND SPREAD INTO SOUTHERN WISCONSIN AS LOW
PRESSURE BEGINS TO PROPAGATE SOUTHEASTWARD INTO NORTHERN
WISCONSIN. THE WARM FRONT FROM THIS LOW WILL FINALLY PROGRESS
EASTWARD THROUGH SOUTHERN WISCONSIN MIDDAY WEDNESDAY, WITH STRONG
SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS DEVELOPING BEHIND IT. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR
DESTABILIZATION ACROSS ESPECIALLY SOUTHWESTERN TO SOUTH-CENTRAL
WISCONSIN AS TEMPERATURES RISE INTO THE UPPER 70S TO NEAR 80
DEGREES. SBCAPE ON MESOSCALE MODELS IS PUSHING 2000 J/KG WITH THE
00Z RUNS, WHILE GLOBALS REMAIN MODEST AROUND 1500 J/KG. WITH
INSTABILITY AND SHEAR INCREASING (0-6 KM SHEAR AROUND 45-50 KT AND
0-3 KM SHEAR AROUND 25 KT) IN THE AFTERNOON HOURS, EXPECTING SOME
STORMS TO BECOME SEVERE AS A FINAL COLD FRONT SWEEPS THROUGH THE
REGION LATE IN THE AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING HOURS. WITH STRONG
OFFSHORE FLOW, SEVERE POTENTIAL EXISTS ALL THE WAY TO LAKE
MICHIGAN. MAIN HAZARDS AT THIS TIME LOOK TO BE DAMAGING WINDS AND
HAIL WITHIN STRONGER STORMS.
THE COLD FRONT PUSHES SOUTH OF THE WI/IL BORDER WEDNESDAY NIGHT
AS LOW PRESSURE EXITS INTO MICHIGAN. EXPECTING STORMS TO WEAKEN
AROUND SUNSET, WITH DRYING CONDITIONS OVERNIGHT. WINDS MAY WEAKEN
ENOUGH TO ALLOW FOR GROUND FOG TO DEVELOP, ESPECIALLY IN
SOUTHWESTERN WISCONSIN. EXPECT LOWS IN THE MID-50S.
MH
LONG TERM
ISSUED 124 AM CDT TUE JUN 23 2026
THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY:
LOW PRESSURE STALLS OVER MICHIGAN ON THURSDAY, BRINGING A FINAL
WAVE OF ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS (20-35% CHANCES)
ACROSS SOUTHEASTERN TO CENTRAL WISCONSIN. MEANWHILE, LOW PRESSURE
DEVELOPS IN THE SOUTHERN PLAINS WHILE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER
ONTARIO, BRINGING DRY CONDITIONS TO SOUTHERN WISCONSIN THURSDAY
NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY. TEMPERATURES RETURN TO SEASONAL NORMS INTO
THE WEEKEND AS LOW PRESSURE DEEPENS ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS AND
BRINGS ADDITIONAL WARM FRONTOGENESIS TO THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI
VALLEY. PRECIPITATION CHANCES RETURN SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY
NIGHT AS WELL AS LOW PRESSURE LIFTS INTO ONTARIO, BUT MODELS
DIVERGE ON COVERAGE AND INTENSITY (20-40%). AS LOW PRESSURE LIFTS
FARTHER NORTH AND HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST U.S.
MONDAY INTO TUESDAY, STIFF SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS WILL BRING RISING
TEMPERATURES TO SOUTHEASTERN WISCONSIN. POTENTIAL FOR HIGHS IN THE
UPPER 80S TO LOW 90S, HOWEVER, WIDESPREAD CLOUD COVER FROM WAA
PRECIPITATION (POPS 20-35%) WILL LIKELY MODULATE THESE
TEMPERATURES AWAY FROM THE 90S. STILL, HOT AND HUMID CONDITIONS
ARE LIKELY TO START THE WORK WEEK.
MH
AVIATION
ISSUED 124 AM CDT TUE JUN 23 2026
ISOLATED POCKETS OF GROUND FOG MAY DEVELOP AT LOW-LYING TERMINALS
EARLY THIS MORNING, BRINGING REDUCED VISIBILITIES FOR A FEW HOURS
JUST BEFORE SUNRISE. OTHERWISE, VFR CONDITIONS WITH VERY LIGHT
WINDS EXPECTED THROUGHOUT THIS MORNING INTO THE AFTERNOON HOURS.
AN EASTERLY LAKE BREEZE IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP IN THE EARLY
AFTERNOON HOURS, PUSHING INLAND THROUGH UES BY THE MID- AFTERNOON
HOURS. WINDS RETURN TO LIGHT AND VARIABLE LATE TONIGHT, BECOMING
SOUTHERLY INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING. SHOWERS AND AN ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORM ALSO BECOME POSSIBLE LATE TONIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY
MORNING, WITH LOCALLY MVFR CEILINGS/VISIBILITIES UNDERNEATH THESE
STORMS.
MH
MARINE
ISSUED 124 AM CDT TUE JUN 23 2026
HIGH PRESSURE AROUND 30.2 INCHES OVER THE UPPER MIDWEST WILL BRING
LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS THROUGHOUT TODAY AND TONIGHT. LOW
PRESSURE 29.9 INCHES DEVELOPING OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS TONIGHT
AND PROGRESSING INTO NORTHERN WISCONSIN ON WEDNESDAY WILL BRING
SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO THE LAKE. WINDS SHIFT
NORTHWESTERLY AS LOW PRESSURE EXITS INTO LOWER MICHIGAN ON
THURSDAY, WITH ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS REMAINING POSSIBLE. LIGHT
NORTHERLY WINDS EXPECTED THURSDAY NIGHT, CONTINUING THROUGH
FRIDAY. FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY, EXPECT LIGHT AND VARIABLE
WINDS UNDER HIGH PRESSURE AROUND 30.1 INCHES, BEFORE WINDS SHIFT
TO BECOME SOUTHEASTERLY AHEAD OF DEVELOPING STRONG LOW PRESSURE IN
THE NORTHERN PLAINS.
MH
MKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
WI...NONE.
LM...NONE.
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