203
FXUS63 KMKX 080459
AFDMKX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MILWAUKEE/SULLIVAN WI
1159 PM CDT TUE JUL 7 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- MARGINAL TO SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS LATE WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON AND EVENING. DAMAGING WINDS AND LARGE HAIL ARE THE
MAIN HAZARDS. LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN AND URBAN AND SMALL STREAM
FLOODING WILL BE POSSIBLE WELL INTO THE NIGHT.
- A CONTINUATION OF SCATTERED STORMS OR REDEVELOPMENT IS
FORECAST FOR THURSDAY. LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN AND URBAN AND SMALL
STREAM FLOODING WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE.
- HOT AND MUGGY CONDITIONS RETURN EARLY NEXT WEEK.
SHORT TERM
ISSUED 1158 PM CDT TUE JUL 7 2026
TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY:
DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE INTO TONIGHT UNDER HIGH
PRESSURE. A FEW SHOWERS AND A STORM OR TWO COULD BRUSH THE NORTH
TOWARD DAYBREAK INTO MID-MORNING WEDNESDAY AS WARM AIR ADVECTION
AND DEEPER MOISTURE PUSH INTO THE AREA. STORMS ARE THEN LIKELY
MAINLY ALONG AND NORTH OF I-94 LATE AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING
HOURS AS INSTABILITY AND MOISTURE CONTINUE TO INCREASE AHEAD OF
AN APPROACHING SHORTWAVE. LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL WILL BE
POSSIBLE WITH ANY SLOW MOVING OR TRAINING STORMS, AS
PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES PUSH 2 INCHES. STILL THINK THERE IS A
CHANCE FOR A FEW STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS GIVEN AMPLE INSTABILITY
AND MARGINAL DEEP LAYER SHEAR. HAIL AND STRONG WINDS ARE THE
MAIN SEVERE CONCERNS.
SHOULD BE PLENTY OF TIME FOR TEMPS TO WARM WEDNESDAY BEFORE
WIDESPREAD CLOUDS AND PRECIP MOVE IN, SO KEPT HIGH TEMPS LARGELY
IN THE UPPER 80S. WOULDN'T BE SURPRISED TO SEE A 90 DEGREE
READING OR TWO, ESPECIALLY ALONG AND SOUTH OF I-94.
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO HANG AROUND
WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY THURSDAY AS INSTABILITY AND PLENTY
OF MOISTURE LINGER WHILE THE SHORTWAVE MOVES THROUGH. COULD SEE
SOME REDEVELOPMENT THURSDAY AFTERNOON AS THE SURFACE TROUGH
DROPS THROUGH SOUTHERN WISCONSIN. LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL ARE
THE MAIN CONCERNS WED NIGHT INTO THU, THOUGH WOULDN'T BE
SURPRISED BY A STRONGER STORM OR TWO PRODUCING SOME HAIL AND
GUSTY WINDS THURSDAY AFTERNOON INTO EARLY EVENING.
DDV
LONG TERM
ISSUED 1158 PM CDT TUE JUL 7 2026
FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY:
MAINLY DRY WEATHER IS LIKELY FROM FRIDAY INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK AS
AN UPPER RIDGE BUILDS IN AND SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE LARGELY SITS
OVER THE REGION. NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION TO SEE A FEW STORMS
SNEAK OVER THE TOP OF THE RIDGE INTO SOUTHERN WISCONSIN AS THE
RIDGE MOVES IN LATE THIS WEEK AND BEGINS TO FLATTEN BY MID-WEEK
NEXT WEEK. OVERALL THOUGH, DRY WEATHER SHOULD PREVAIL MUCH OF
THE TIME ALONG WITH INCREASING TEMPERATURES THIS WEEKEND INTO
EARLY NEXT WEEK.
DDV
AVIATION
ISSUED 1158 PM CDT TUE JUL 7 2026
QUIET WEATHER WILL CONTINUE FOR THE OVERNIGHT HOURS UNDER THE
INFLUENCE OF SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED TO THE SOUTH OF THE
FORECAST AREA. SCATTERED CUMULUS EARLY THIS EVENING WILL
DIMINISH, WITH FEW TO SCATTERED HIGH CLOUDS EXPECTED OVERNIGHT
ALONG WITH LIGHT WINDS.
A CHANCE FOR SHOWER AND STORMS IS EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY INCREASE
FROM THE NORTH WEDNESDAY MORNING INTO THE EVENING HOURS.
LOCATIONS ALONG AND NORTH OF I-94 HAVE THE BEST CHANCE FOR
SEEING SCATTERED SHOWERS/STORMS TOMORROW THROUGH THE EVENING
HOURS. A FEW STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE IN THE
AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS.
WIDESPREAD SOUTHWEST WINDS 5-10 KNOTS TOMORROW MAY BECOME SOUTH
TO SOUTHEAST BY EARLY AFTERNOON NEAR THE LAKE. SCATTERED TO
BROKEN CUMULUS AROUND 5 KT FEET IS EXPECTED TOMORROW, WITH SOME
LOWER CEILINGS POSSIBLE NORTH TOWARDS FOND DU LAC AND SHEBOYGAN
BY THE EVENING HOURS.
DDV
MARINE
ISSUED 1158 PM CDT TUE JUL 7 2026
HIGH PRESSURE AROUND 30.0 INCHES OVER LAKE MI AND LOWER MI WILL
SHIFT SOUTHEAST INTO THE LOWER GREAT LAKES AND THE OHIO VALLEY
WEDNESDAY. MODEST SOUTH SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL DEVELOP TONIGHT AND
CONTINUE ON WEDNESDAY, AS WEAK LOW PRESSURE AROUND 29.8 INCHES
AND AN ACCOMPANYING COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE NORTHERN
GREAT PLAINS. MODEST SOUTHWEST WINDS WEDNESDAY NIGHT WILL BECOME
NORTHWEST TO NORTH BEHIND THE FRONTAL PASSAGE THURSDAY INTO
FRIDAY, WITH HIGH PRESSURE AROUND 30.0 INCHES BUILDING INTO THE
THE UPPER GREAT LAKES REGION.
DDV
MKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
WI...NONE.
LM...NONE.
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