244
FXUS63 KMKX 262342
AFDMKX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MILWAUKEE/SULLIVAN WI
642 PM CDT SAT SEP 26 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- PATCHY FOG WILL BE POSSIBLE AGAIN TONIGHT AND MAY BE LOCALLY
DENSE
- TEMPERATURES WITHIN A COUPLE DEGREES OF NORMAL OVER THE NEXT
SEVERAL DAYS
- CHANCES FOR RAIN AND A FEW STORMS RETURN LATER TUESDAY INTO
TUESDAY NIGHT
UPDATE
ISSUED 642 PM CDT SAT SEP 26 2026
DRY AIR IN THE LOW LEVELS IS WINNING OUT HERE THIS EVENING.
SHOWERS ACROSS EASTERN IOWA AND MINNESOTA ARE DISSIPATING BEFORE
THEY MAKE IT TO SOUTHWESTERN AND WEST CENTRAL WISCONSIN. THIS
TREND SHOULD CONTINUE THROUGH THE REST OF THE NIGHT AS THE
SHORTWAVE MOVES IN. MEANWHILE MID AND UPPER LEVEL CLOUDS
CONTINUE TO MOVE IN. THESE CLOUDS SHOULD LIMIT FOG POTENTIAL
OVERNIGHT. CAN'T COMPLETELY RULE OUT SOME PATCHY FOG IN RIVER
VALLEYS OR MARSHES WHERE THE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE IS SLIGHTING
HIGHER, BUT WE WILL BE HARD PRESSED TO GET DENSE FOG WITH THE
CLOUD COVER. NO MAJOR CHANGES TO THE FORECAST.
PATTERSON
SHORT TERM
ISSUED 1242 PM CDT SAT SEP 26 2026
TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY:
A WEAKENING UPPER WAVE WILL APPROACH TONIGHT, LARGELY WIPING OUT
AS IT REACHES SOUTHERN WISCONSIN. THE DEEPER MOISTURE WILL HIT
A WALL TOWARDS THE WESTERN FORECAST AREA. A FEW SHOWERS MAY
SURVIVE INTO THE FAR WEST, BUT DRY AIR IN THE LOWER LEVELS MAY
WIN OUT. THUS KEPT THE FORECAST DRY FOR NOW.
DEPENDING ON THE EXTENT OF HIGH CLOUDS, LOCALIZED PATCHY FOG MAY
OCCUR AGAIN TONIGHT. THE BEST CHANCE WILL LIKELY BE IN THE EAST
WHERE CLOUD COVER SHOULD BE LESS. TEMPS WILL BE COOLEST IN THE
EAST (AWAY FROM LAKE MICHIGAN) AS WELL GIVEN THE BETTER
COMBINATION OF LIGHT WINDS AND LESS CLOUD COVER. TEMPS MAY WIND
UP A COUPLE DEGREES LOWER THAN THE FORECAST IF SKIES END UP
MOSTLY CLEAR.
UPPER LEVEL RIDGING WILL RETURN FOR MONDAY, WHILE SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE LINGERS. IT SHOULD BE A PLEASANT DAY WITH PARTLY
CLOUDY SKIES AND HIGHS IN THE UPPER 60S TO AROUND 70.
DDV
LONG TERM
ISSUED 1242 PM CDT SAT SEP 26 2026
TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY:
AS THE RIDGE HEADS EASTWARD TUESDAY, THE DOOR WILL OPEN FOR A
RETURN OF DEEPER MOISTURE INTO SOUTHERN WISCONSIN. PRECIPITABLE
WATER VALUES ARE CURRENTLY EXPECTED TO INCREASE TO AROUND 1.5"
BY LATER TUESDAY INTO TUESDAY NIGHT. A SHORTWAVE MOVING THROUGH
LATE IN THE DAY OR OVERNIGHT WILL THEN BRING A RETURN OF SHOWER
CHANCES TO THE FORECAST AREA. A FEW RUMBLES OF THUNDER WILL BE
POSSIBLE AS WELL, THOUGH INSTABILITY IS STILL LOOKING MINIMAL.
MODELS REMAIN MIXED WITH PRECIP CHANCES FOR THE LATTER HALF OF
NEXT WEEK, DEPENDING ON HOW FAR SOUTH THE DEEPER MOISTURE GETS
PUSHED AFTER THE TUE/TUE NIGHT SYSTEM ROLLS THROUGH. THERE IS
THE POTENTIAL FOR QUICK MOISTURE RETURN LATE IN THE WEEK ALONG
WITH MORE SHOWER CHANCES PER THE LATEST GFS AND CANADIAN
SOLUTIONS. THE ECMWF IS FASTER WITH THE ARRIVAL OF THE SURFACE
HIGH, KEEPING THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY AND MOISTURE TO THE SOUTH OF
THE STATE LINE THROUGH LATE WEEK. CONFIDENCE THUS REMAINS ON
THE LOWER END FOR PRECIP CHANCES LATE IN THE WEEK.
TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN WITHIN A COUPLE DEGREES OF
NORMAL THROUGH THE EXTENDED FORECAST PERIOD.
DDV
AVIATION
ISSUED 642 PM CDT SAT SEP 26 2026
PREDOMINATELY VFR TO MVFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE
PERIOD. MID TO HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS ARE STREAMING IN FROM THE
WEST AND NORTH AND SHOULD CONTINUE TODO SO THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT
HOURS. THESE CLOUDS SHOULD LIMIT THE AMOUNT OF FOG THAT DEVELOPS
ACROSS SOUTHERN WISCONSIN. HIGHEST CONFIDENCE FOR PATCHY FOR
WILL BE IN RIVER VALLEYS AND MARSHES. VISIBILITIES COULD FALL
TO AROUND 3-6 SM WITH ANY PATCHY FOG. ANY FOG THAT DOES DEVELOP
SHOULD DISSIPATE AFTER SUNRISE. GIVEN THE LOW CONFIDENCE OF FOG
DEVELOPING WITH THE CLOUD COVER, LEFT ANY MENTION OF FOG OR MVFR
VISBYS OUT OF THE TAFS. LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS ARE EXPECTED
FOR MOST TERMINALS THROUGH THE PERIOD. LAKESHORE TERMINALS WILL
SEE A LAKE BREEZE MOVE INLAND BRINGING EAST WINDS IN THE LATE
AFTERNOON AND EVENING. LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS WILL RETURN TO
THE LAKESHORE TERMINALS AFTER DARK SUNDAY.
PATTERSON
MARINE
ISSUED 1242 PM CDT SAT SEP 26 2026
HIGH PRESSURE OF 30.3 INCHES CENTERED NEAR THE ONTARIO/QUEBEC
BORDER WILL PULL AWAY TO THE EAST TODAY INTO SUNDAY. HIGH
PRESSURE OF 30.1 INCHES WILL REMAIN OVERHEAD THROUGH AT LEAST
MONDAY THOUGH, KEEPING THE WEATHER DRY AND WINDS ON THE LIGHTER
SIDE THIS WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.
BREEZY SOUTHERLY WINDS ARE EXPECTED TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NEXT
WEEK, AS HIGH PRESSURE DEPARTS TO THE EAST AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING
TROUGH. WIND GUST TO 25 KNOTS ARE POSSIBLE ALONG WITH BUILDING
WAVES, PARTICULARLY ACROSS CENTRAL AND NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE
LAKE.
DDV
MKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
WI...NONE.
LM...NONE.
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