400
FXUS63 KMKX 141029 AAA
AFDMKX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MILWAUKEE/SULLIVAN WI
529 AM CDT SUN JUN 14 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- SHOWERS IN THE SOUTHEAST WILL WIND DOWN EARLY THIS MORNING.
- DRY AND COOLER CONDITIONS THE REST OF TODAY AND MONDAY.
- NEXT CHANCES FOR THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOP TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY.
TOO EARLY TO TELL INTENSITY, BUT MONITORING FOR POTENTIAL
STRONGER STORMS. RAIN CHANCES OF 70-90 PERCENT BOTH DAYS WITH
HEAVY RAIN POSSIBLE WED AND WED NT.
UPDATE
ISSUED 528 AM CDT SUN JUN 14 2026
SHOWERS ACROSS SOUTHEAST PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA WILL WIND
DOWN EARLY THIS MORNING, WITH A PERIOD OF CLEARING BEHIND THE
SHOWERS. UPSTREAM CLOUDS WILL MOVE IN THOUGH BY MID-MORNING DUE
TO CONTINUED COLD ADVECTION. BETWEEN THE CLOUDS AND COOLER TEMPS
ALOFT, BELOW NORMAL AFTERNOON HIGH TEMPS WILL LIKELY ONLY MAKE
IT INTO THE MID TO UPPER 60S. IN GENERAL, THE FORECAST LOOKS ON
TRACK FOR THE REMAINDER OF TODAY.
DDV
SHORT TERM
ISSUED 1154 PM CDT SAT JUN 13 2026
TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY:
WEAK 850-700 MB FRONTOGENESIS WILL CONTINUE ACROSS FAR SRN WI
MUCH OF THE NIGHT AS THE UPSTREAM SHORTWAVE TROUGH OVER THE
DAKOTAS DOES NOT MOVE ACROSS SRN WI UNTIL AFTER 12Z SUN. ANY
SHOWERS THAT DO OCCUR WILL LIKELY BE HIGH BASED AND RELATIVELY
LIGHT. NWLY SFC WINDS AND COLD ADVECTION WILL INCREASE SUN AM
AS THE UPPER WAVE APPROACHES FROM THE WEST WITH COLD ADVECTION
CONTINUING INTO THE EARLY AFTERNOON. BROKEN STRATOCUMULUS IS
EXPECTED TO DEVELOP BY LATE MORNING AND LAST INTO MID AFTERNOON.
THUS HIGH TEMPS ONLY IN THE UPPER 60S ARE FORECAST.
WINDS WILL RETURN TO WLY FOR SUN NT-MON AS HIGH PRESSURE MOVES
ACROSS THE CENTRAL USA AND LOW PRESSURE APPROACHES FROM CANADA.
WEAK WARM ADVECTION WILL BEGIN ON MON. HIGH TEMPS WILL REBOUND
BACK INTO THE MIDDLE 70S.
GEHRING
LONG TERM
ISSUED 1154 PM CDT SAT JUN 13 2026
MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY:
THERE IS MUCH BETTER AGREEMENT AMONG THE GEFS AND ECMWF ENSEMBLE
FOR THE LOW PRESSURE AREAS ON TUE AND WED. A AMPLIFYING SHORTWAVE
TROUGH WILL APPROACH WITHIN NWLY FLOW ALOFT LATE MON NT-TUE AM,
WHILE A WEST TO EAST SFC TROUGH MOVES FROM CANADA INTO MN AND
NRN WI. CYCLOGENESIS WILL ENSUE INTO EAST CENTRAL WI TOWARD 00Z
WED WITH A COLD FRONT TO MOVE ACROSS SRN WI IN THE AFTERNOON.
LIS OF -3 TO -6C ARE FORECAST VIA COLD AIR ALOFT, WITH A GOOD
POTENTIAL FOR HAIL WITH THE THUNDERSTORMS.
A FAST MOVING POSITIVE TILT SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL THEN MOVE
ACROSS THE NRN GREAT PLAINS TO SRN WI WED-WED NT, WITH THE SFC
LOW TO TRACK FROM IA ON WED TO ALONG THE WI AND IL BORDER WED
EVENING. A STRONG LOW TO MID LEVEL BAROCLINIC ZONE WILL SET UP
OVER SRN WI WITH WARM, MOIST ADVECTION AND FRONTOGENESIS
PRODUCING WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND STORMS. ELEVATED SEVERE STORMS
AND HEAVY RAINFALL WILL BE POSSIBLE. WEAK SHORTWAVE TROUGHS
WILL THEN CONTINUE TO BRING SMALL CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS
THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK.
GEHRING
AVIATION
ISSUED 528 AM CDT SUN JUN 14 2026
SHOWERS ACROSS SOUTHEAST PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA WILL
WIND DOWN EARLY THIS MORNING, WITH A PERIOD OF CLEARING BEHIND
THE SHOWERS. UPSTREAM CLOUDS WILL MOVE IN THOUGH BY MID-MORNING
DUE TO CONTINUED COLD ADVECTION. CEILINGS COULD BE MVFR FOR A
TIME THROUGH LATE MORNING, BEFORE CLOUD BASES LIKELY RETURN TO
VFR FOR THE AFTERNOON. MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES ARE THEN EXPECTED
TONIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE SLIDES BY TO THE SOUTHWEST. BREEZY
NORTHWEST WINDS TODAY WILL BECOME LIGHTER FROM THE WEST TONIGHT
INTO MONDAY.
DDV
MARINE
ISSUED 1154 PM CDT SAT JUN 13 2026
A COLD FRONT WILL SLOWLY MOVE SOUTHEAST ACROSS FAR SOUTHERN
LAKE MICHIGAN INTO THE OVERNIGHT. MODEST WEST TO SOUTHWEST
WINDS WILL BECOME NORTHWEST WITH THE FRONTAL PASSAGE. MODEST
NORTHWEST WINDS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH SUNDAY. WINDS THEN SHIFT
SOUTHWESTERLY ON MONDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE PASSES TO THE SOUTH
AND LOW PRESSURE OF 29.7 INCHES PROGRESSES SOUTH FROM CANADA.
THE LOW PRESSURE AREA THEN CROSSES NORTHERN LAKE MICHIGAN
TUESDAY AFTERNOON OR EVENING WITH BREEZY SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS TO
THE SOUTH OF THE LOW. ON WEDNESDAY, ANOTHER LOW PRESSURE AREA
WILL PROGRESS EASTWARD ACROSS IOWA AND ACROSS SOUTHERN LAKE
MICHIGAN WEDNESDAY NIGHT. BREEZY SOUTHEAST WINDS WILL DEVELOP
OVER THE LAKE WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON WITH SHIFTING VARIABLE WINDS
WEDNESDAY NIGHT, BECOMING NORTH TO NORTHWEST ON THURSDAY. GALES
WILL BE POSSIBLE DURING THIS TIME. WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND
SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED WITH BOTH LOW PRESSURE
AREAS.
GEHRING
MKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
WI...NONE.
LM...NONE.
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