707
FXUS63 KMKX 300423
AFDMKX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MILWAUKEE/SULLIVAN WI
1123 PM CDT SUN MAR 29 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS REMAIN FORECAST MONDAY NIGHT. A
FEW STORMS COULD BE SEVERE, WITH LARGE HAIL BEING THE PRIMARY
THREAT.
- ADDITIONAL SHOWERS AND STORMS ARE FORECAST TUESDAY MORNING AND
AFTERNOON, WITH EXACT AREAS OF DEVELOPMENT DEPENDING ON EARLY
DAY CLOUDS/RAIN AND FRONT TIMING. A FEW STORMS COULD BE
SEVERE, WITH LARGE HAIL AND GUSTY WINDS BEING THE PRIMARY
THREATS.
- INCREASING POTENTIAL FOR WINTRY MIX IMPACTS WEDNESDAY EVENING
INTO THURSDAY MORNING.
- ADDITIONAL CHANCES FOR RAIN & A FEW THUNDERSTORMS FRIDAY
AFTERNOON INTO SATURDAY.
SHORT TERM
ISSUED 1130 PM CDT SUN MAR 29 2026
TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT:
QUIET TONIGHT WITH SOME HIGH CLOUDS PUSHING IN LATER TONIGHT.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO PUSH OUT WITH LOWER PRESSURE
NUDGING IN FROM THE WEST. MODEST SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL CONTINUE
OVERNIGHT INTO MONDAY MORNING. A PIECE OF THE LOW PRESSURE WILL
EJECT OFF THE MAIN LOW TONIGHT AND DRIVE THE FRONT SOUTHWARD
INTO PARTS OF SOUTHERN WI INTO MONDAY MORNING. THIS WILL LIKELY
BRING A FAIRLY SHARP TEMPERATURE GRADIENT THROUGH MONDAY AS
BREEZY SOUTHWEST WINDS TO THE SOUTH WILL PUSH TEMPERATURES INTO
THE UPPER 60S TO MID 70S AT LEAST WITH AREAS NORTH OF THE FRONT
WORKING IN CONJUNCTION WITH THE LAKE BREEZE WILL BRING AREAS IN
EAST CENTRAL WI AND NEAR THE LAKE TO AS LOW AS THE LOW 40S TO
MID 50S. HOWEVER, THERE SHOULD BE TIME IN THE MORNING FOR MOST
AREAS TO WARM UP TO THE 60S BEFORE THE IMPACT OF THE FRONT/LAKE
BREEZE WILL BE FELT.
INTO MONDAY LATE AFTERNOON/EVENING, LAPSE RATES WILL IMPROVE
ALOFT WITH INCREASED WAA AND MOISTURE IN THE LOW LEVELS AND WITH
THE WARM FRONT IN THE AREA AND SOME SHORTWAVE ENERGY ALOFT WE
SHOULD HAVE ENOUGH OF A TRIGGER MECHANISM TO BRING SOME
SCATTERED SHOWERS WITH SOME STORM POTENTIAL MONDAY NIGHT. CAMS
SHOW SOME ISOLATED CONVECTION AND SOME SHOWERS BUT OVERALL NOT A
TON OF ACTIVITY DURING THIS PERIOD. GIVEN INSTABILITY AROUND
750-1250 J/KG AND STRONG DEEP LAYER SHEAR OF 45-60 KTS THE
ENVIRONMENT SHOULD BE THERE TO SUPPORT ELEVATED STRONG TO SEVERE
CONVECTION WITH A RISK PRIMARILY FOR HAIL. HOWEVER, THE TRIGGER
MAY BE ON THE WEAKER SIDE GENERALLY WITH SOME ADDITIONAL CAPPING
ALOFT WHICH MAY REDUCE THE RISK FOR MORE WIDESPREAD CONVECTION,
BUT ANY STORMS THAT DEVELOP SHOULD CARRY A HAIL RISK. THE BEST
CHANCE IS GENERALLY DURING THE LATE EVENING WITH RISK DECREASING
OVERNIGHT AS INSTABILITY ALOFT DECREASES AS MIDLEVEL LAPSE
RATES FALL.
CAMS GENERALLY SUPPORT QUIET CONDITIONS INTO TUESDAY MORNING
THOUGH WE STILL CANNOT RULE OUT SOME SHOWERY ACTIVITY AND EVEN A
STRAY STORM, DEPENDING ON THE POSITION OF THE WARM FRONT. WARM
FRONT MAY NUDGE BACK NORTH A BIT OVERNIGHT INTO TUESDAY AS THE
SURFACE LOW PUSHES IN. IN ANY CASE, PARTICULARLY IF WE CAN GET
SOME MORNING CLEARING, WE WILL SEE THE NEXT CHANCE FOR STORMS
DEVELOP TOWARD WEST CENTRAL WI FORMING ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE
FRONT SOMEWHAT IN THE BASE OF THE SURFACE LOW PRESSURE THAT WILL
BE PUSHING THROUGH CENTRAL WI. STILL PLENTY OF UNCERTAINTY
REGARDING WHEN THIS FRONT BEGINS TO PUSH THROUGH BUT CAMS
SUGGEST THE BEST CHANCE FOR STORMS TUESDAY MORNING WILL BE IN
CENTRAL WI AS THE SURFACE LOW PUSHES THROUGH. INCREASING CHANCES
INTO THE LATE MORNING AND EARLY AFTERNOON WITH THE COLD FRONT.
THE COLD FRONT WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED TO BRING THE LIFT NECESSARY
TO BRING CONVECTION GIVEN SOME SIGNIFICANT CAPPING AHEAD OF THE
FRONT WITH LIMITED FORCING AND CAMS GENERALLY SUPPORT THIS IDEA
WITH CAMS SHOWING DEVELOPING SHOWERS/STORMS ALONG THE FRONT.
HOWEVER, STORMS IN CAMS ARE NOT ROBUST AND MAY STILL BE SHOWING
SIGNS OF BATTLING SOME CAPPING ISSUES. SHOULD THESE CAPPING
ISSUES BE ERODED OR OVERCOME BY THE FRONT STORMS WOULD BE
EXPECTED, LIKELY SURFACE BASED, WITH SEVERE STORMS POSSIBLE. ALL
HAZARDS WOULD BE POSSIBLE THOUGH THE PRIMARY RISKS APPEAR TO BE
HAIL AND WIND GIVEN INSTABILITY OVER 1000 J/KG AND DEEP LAYER
SHEAR OF 40KTS OR SO.
CAMS ALSO SUGGEST THE FRONT SHOULD PUSH OUT BY THE LATE
AFTERNOON TO EARLY EVENING WITH SOME UNCERTAINTY THERE AT THIS
TIME. HOWEVER THERE WILL BE CHANCES FOR SOME POST FRONTAL PRECIP
WITH SOME SHORTWAVE ACTIVITY ALOFT AS WELL AS SOME WAA IN THE
LOW TO MID LEVELS THAT IF WE CAN MAINTAIN SOME MOISTURE MAY BE
ABLE TO BRING SOME SHOWERS IN THE POST FRONTAL REGION. BY THE
MID TO LATE EVENING HOWEVER, EXPECT THINGS TO DRY OUT AS
MOISTURE PUSHES OUT AND HIGH PRESSURE AND DRIER AIR SWING IN
FROM THE NORTH WEST. DRY CONDITIONS EXPECTED TUESDAY NIGHT.
KUROSKI
LONG TERM
ISSUED 1130 PM CDT SUN MAR 29 2026
WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY:
THERE IS SOME MORE CLARITY WITH THE FIRST LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
TIMING AND PLACEMENT AS IT SHIFTS NORTHEAST THROUGH THE REGION
WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY NIGHT. THERE REMAINS SOME
UNCERTAINTY WITH THE SECOND LOW FOR FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY.
SOUTHWEST FLOW AT 500 MB SHOULD PREVAIL WEDNESDAY INTO FRIDAY
ACROSS THE REGION. THERE SHOULD BE AN INITIAL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
THAT SHIFTS NORTHEAST FROM THE SOUTH CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS WEDNESDAY
NIGHT THROUGH THE MIDDLE MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY THURSDAY AND
INTO LOWER MICHIGAN OR FURTHER EAST THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY.
ENSEMBLE MEANS GENERALLY SUPPORT A SURFACE LOW TRACK TO THE
SOUTHEAST OF SOUTHERN WISCONSIN. THIS WOULD SUPPORT STRONG WARM
AIR ADVECTION AT 850 MB PUSHING INTO THE AREA WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND
NORTHWARD INTO THURSDAY, ACCOMPANIED BY A STRONG LOW LEVEL JET
NOSE.
THESE FEATURES WOULD BRING A GOOD AMOUNT OF GULF MOISTURE INTO
THE AREA, RESULTING IN A SOLID AREA OF PRECIPITATION WEDNESDAY
NIGHT INTO THURSDAY. FORECAST SOUNDINGS FROM SEVERAL MODELS AND
ENSEMBLES ARE SHOWING A FAIRLY ROBUST SIGNAL FOR A PERIOD OF
LIGHT SNOW WEDNESDAY EVENING, WITH SLEET AND FREEZING RAIN
PUSHING NORTH INTO AND THROUGH THE AREA LATER WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO
THURSDAY MORNING, UNTIL LOW LEVEL THERMAL PROFILES SUPPORT ALL
RAIN BY THURSDAY AFTERNOON. THE RAIN WOULD LINGER THURSDAY
AFTERNOON BEFORE ENDING BY LATER THURSDAY NIGHT, AS COLDER AND
DRIER AIR MOVES INTO THE AREA WITH THE SYSTEM SHIFTING TO THE
EAST.
ENSEMBLES HAVE FAIRLY HIGH PROBABILITIES (GREATER THAN 60 TO 80
PERCENT) FOR GREATER THAN 0.50 INCHES OF LIQUID PRECIPITATION.
THEY ALSO HAVE PROBABILITIES OF GREATER THAN 30 TO 50 PERCENT FOR
GREATER THAN 1.00 INCH. TEMPERATURES MAY VARY GREATLY ACROSS THE
AREA WITH THIS SYSTEM, AS ENSEMBLES HAVE FAIRLY LARGE SPREADS IN
POSSIBLE RANGES. GIVEN THE QPF PROBABILITY VALUES AND TEMPERATURE
PROFILES, TRAVEL IMPACTS MAY OCCUR WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY
MORNING WITH THE SNOW, SLEET AND FREEZING RAIN POSSIBILITIES. KEEP
UP WITH THE FORECAST FOR THIS PERIOD.
ENSEMBLES ARE A LITTLE MORE IN AGREEMENT WITH A SECOND LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM DEEPENING AS IT SHIFTS NORTH NORTHEAST THROUGH
THE LAKE MICHIGAN REGION FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY EVENING. THE
LOW TRACK IN THE ENSEMBLES GENERALLY SHIFTS THROUGH PARTS OF
WISCONSIN ON SATURDAY INTO SATURDAY EVENING, WITH A DEEP AND
CLOSED 500 MB LOW POSSIBLY SUPPORTING THIS SYSTEM. THE WARM AIR
ADVECTION AHEAD OF THIS LOW MAY KEEP PRECIPITATION TYPES MAINLY
RAIN, WITH SOME STORMS POSSIBLE. HOWEVER, IT IS TOO FAR OUT YET IN
THE FUTURE TO HAVE MORE CONFIDENCE IN PRECIPITATION TYPES.
TEMPERATURES WILL ONCE AGAIN BE DEPENDENT ON THE LOW TRACK AND
TIMING, WITH ENSEMBLE SPREADS STILL FAIRLY LARGE THIS FAR OUT AS
WELL.
IT THEN LOOKS DRIER FOR THE LATTER PORTIONS OF NEXT WEEKEND INTO
EARLY THE FOLLOWING WEEK, AS HIGH PRESSURE MOVES THROUGH.
WOOD
AVIATION
ISSUED 1130 PM CDT SUN MAR 29 2026
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY ANY CLOUDS ARE
EXPECTED TO REMAIN FAIRLY HIGH. THE MAIN CONCERN EARLY IN THE
TAF PERIOD IS THE PATCHY POTENTIAL FOR SOME LLWS IN PARTS OF
SOUTHERN WI TONIGHT. THE BEST CHANCE FOR PROLONGED LLWS IS FOR
SBM BUT SHORTER PERIODS WILL BE POSSIBLE ELSEWHERE TONIGHT. THE
PRIMARY CONCERN INTO THE DAY MONDAY IS THE PRESENCE OF THE FRONT
WHICH, IN COMBINATION WITH THE LAKE BREEZE IMPACT WINDS IN EAST
CENTRAL WI AND CLOSER TO THE LAKE. THERE DOES REMAIN SOME
UNCERTAINTY IN HOW FAR EAST THE LAKE BREEZE IMPACTS BUT MKE AND
SBM WILL LIKELY SEE THE IMPACTS OF THE LAKE BREEZE WITH SOME
CHANCE FOR UES AND ENW AS WELL. SOME MVFR CIGS WILL PUSH INTO
CENTRAL WI MONDAY NIGHT WITH INCREASING CHANCES FOR
SHOWERS/STORMS AS CIGS LIKELY LOWER ACROSS MOST OF SOUTHERN WI
BY EARLY TUESDAY MORNING. CANNOT RULE OUT A STRONG TO SEVERE
STORM MONDAY NIGHT.
KUROSKI
MARINE
ISSUED 1130 PM CDT SUN MAR 29 2026
MODEST SOUTHWEST WINDS CONTINUE AS A FRONT BEGINS TO APPROACH THE
WATERS FROM THE NORTH. THE FRONT WILL GRADUALLY ADVANCE SOUTH
ACROSS LAKE MICHIGAN TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY. THIS WILL RESULT IN
GENERALLY EAST-NORTHEAST WINDS ACROSS THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE
LAKE WITH SOUTHERLY WINDS FURTHER SOUTH. PERIODS OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WILL ACCOMPANY THE SLOW-MOVING FRONT, WITH A FEW
STRONGER STORMS POSSIBLE MONDAY NIGHT AND ONCE AGAIN ON TUESDAY.
LARGE HAIL WOULD BE THE PRIMARY THREAT IN ANY STRONGER STORMS.
WINDS WILL TREND NORTHERLY BEHIND THE DEPARTING COLD FRONT TUESDAY
EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY. WILL BE MONITORING TRENDS FOR A FEW GUSTS
APPROACHING GALE FORCE TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY, WITH THE
CURRENT EXPECTATION BEING FOR ANY SUCH GUSTS TO BE ISOLATED. 1040 MB
HIGH PRESSURE WILL SHIFT FROM ONTARIO TO QUEBEC THROUGH THE LATE
WEEK TIME PERIOD AS 1010 MB LOW PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE OHIO RIVER
VALLEY, ALLOWING WINDS TO TREND EAST-NORTHEASTERLY. WILL NEED TO
WATCH FOR ADDITIONAL ISOLATED GALE POTENTIAL THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY AS
LOW PRESSURE PASSES NEAR OR OVER LAKE MICHIGAN, WITH THE CONTINUED
EXPECTATION FOR ANY GUSTS TO BE TOO SPARSE TO JUSTIFY HEADLINES.
WILL NEVERTHELESS BE MONITORING TRENDS INTO THIS WEEK. ADDITIONAL
RAIN AND SNOW WILL ACCOMPANY THE APPROACHING/PASSING AREA OF LOW
PRESSURE THURSDAY INTO NEXT WEEKEND.
A FEW WIND GUSTS MAY APPROACH SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THRESHOLDS IN
NEARSHORE ZONES THIS AFTERNOON & EVENING, BUT AREN'T EXPECTED TO BE
WIDESPREAD ENOUGH TO WARRANT HEADLINES AT THIS TIME. TRENDS WILL
CONTINUE TO BE MONITORED INTO THIS EVENING. SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE MONDAY EVENING/NIGHT. A FEW STRONG TO
SEVERE STORMS REMAIN POSSIBLE, WITH LARGE HAIL AND GUSTY WINDS BEING
THE PRIMARY HAZARDS. ADDITIONAL SHOWERS AND STORMS ARE POSSIBLE
TUESDAY AS A COLD FRONT CROSSES NEARSHORE ZONES. WINDS WILL BECOME
GUSTY BEHIND THE FRONT TUESDAY EVENING INTO WEDNESDAY, AND ARE
EXPECTED TO REMAIN ELEVATED THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK. ANTICIPATE
THAT SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES WILL BECOME NECESSARY DURING THIS PART
OF THE PERIOD, WITH THE NEED FOR HEADLINES BEING ADDRESSED IN COMING
UPDATES.
KUROSKI
MKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
WI...NONE.
LM...NONE.
VISIT US AT WEATHER.GOV/MILWAUKEE
FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK, X, AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSMILWAUKEE
WWW.X.COM/NWSMILWAUKEE
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSMILWAUKEE
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.
Main Text Page