691
FXUS63 KMKX 091540
AFDMKX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MILWAUKEE/SULLIVAN WI
940 AM CST SUN NOV 9 2025
KEY MESSAGES
- COLD TODAY, WITH HIGHS IN THE 30S AND LOWS IN THE UPPER TEENS
TO LOW 20S. PERIODS OF SNOW FLURRIES EXPECTED THROUGH THE
MORNING AND EARLY AFTERNOON. CHANCES FOR SCATTERED LIGHT SNOW
SHOWERS LATER THIS AFTERNOON INTO THIS EVENING.
- CONTINUED POTENTIAL FOR A LAKE EFFECT SNOW BAND TO IMPACT
SOUTHEASTERN WISCONSIN (FAR EASTERN RACINE AND KENOSHA
COUNTIES AND SOUTHERN MILWAUKEE COUNTY) TONIGHT INTO PREDAWN
MONDAY MORNING. THE DIFFERENCE BETWEEN A DRY FORECAST AND ONE
WITH SEVERAL INCHES OF ACCUMULATING SNOW WILL BE BASED ON THE
WIND DIRECTION OVER LAKE MICHIGAN AND DURATION.
- TEMPERATURES RETURN TO NEAR NORMAL MID-WEEK AND ARE TRENDING
ABOVE NORMAL FOR THE END OF THE WEEK.
UPDATE
ISSUED 930 AM CST SUN NOV 9 2025
OVERALL NOT TOO MUCH CHANGE IN THE WAY OF THINKING WITH THIS
LAKE EFFECT SNOW BAND TONIGHT. 12Z MODELS ARE STARTING TO ROLL
IN AND THERE CONTINUES TO BE GOOD CHUNK OF THEM INDICATING THIS
BAND TO CLIP FAR SOUTHEASTERN WI TONIGHT INTO MONDAY MORNING.
GIVEN THE PERSISTING TREND, LARGE DIFFERENCE IN WATER TEMPS OVER
LAKE MICHIGAN AND COLD AIR ALOFT, ALONG WITH THE SHORTWAVE
TROUGH DIGGING DOWN ACROSS THE REGION, LOOKS TO BE ENOUGH TO
PRODUCE A FEW HOUR WINDOW WHERE SEVERAL INCHES OF SNOW TO
ACCUMULATE. HIGH RATES MAY RESULT IN DETERIORATING CONDITIONS
AND LOW VISIBILITY QUICKLY OVERNIGHT.
HOWEVER, THERE ARE STILL A FEW MODELS ONE BEING THE NAM AS WELL
AS THE 00Z REFS THAT KEEP THIS LAKE EFFECT BAND OFFSHORE OF
SOUTHERN WI WITH MORE NORTHERLY WINDS. ADDITIONALLY SOME OF THE
12Z CAMS THIS MORNING ARE HINTING AT SOME FEATURE (POTENTIALLY
A SERIES OF MESO-LOWS) THAT MAY DISRUPT THE MID-LAKE BAND FOR A
PERIODS OF TIME, WHICH COULD CUT DOWN ON SNOWFALL AMOUNTS AND
BANDS RESIDENCE TIME OVER SOUTHEASTERN WI. SO THERE IS STILL
REMAINS A BIT OF UNCERTAINTY UP IN OUR NECK OF THE WOODS. WILL
WAIT FOR THE FULL MORNING SUITE OF MODELS COME IN BEFORE MAKING
IF ANY HEADLINE DECISIONS MAY BE NEEDED IN SOUTHEASTERN WI OR
NOT.
WAGNER
SHORT TERM
ISSUED 420 AM CST SUN NOV 9 2025
TODAY AND TONIGHT:
NORTH TO NORTHWEST WINDS (COLD ADVECTION) ACCELERATE AFTER
SUNRISE THIS MORNING, GUSTING TO ROUGHLY 25-30 MPH. THE CURRENT
OVERCAST SKY COVER IS EXPECTED TO PARTIALLY BREAK APART LATE
THIS MORNING INTO EARLY THIS AFTERNOON, THOUGH THE PERIODIC SNOW
FLURRIES CURRENTLY OBSERVED ACROSS THE AREA MAY CONTINUE THROUGH
THIS PERIOD.
BETWEEN ROUGHLY 3 PM AND 9 PM CST TODAY, A POTENT 500MB TROUGH /
VORT MAX IS EXPECTED TO PASS OVERHEAD, PROVIDING PLENTY OF PVA.
THE ACCOMPANYING COLD AIR BUBBLE ALOFT WILL RAPIDLY SHARPEN MID
LEVEL LAPSE RATES IN THIS PERIOD AS WELL, WITH BOTH CONVECTIVE
AND QG ASCENT LEADING TO WIDELY SCATTERED CONVECTIVE SNOW
SHOWERS, WHICH COULD BE CAPABLE OF BRIEF BURSTS OF SEVERAL
TENTHS OF AN INCH ACCUMULATION. FORTUNATELY, THE SCATTERED
NATURE OF THESE SHOWERS COUPLED WITH THE FAST WINDS TRANSPORTING
THEM SHOULD PRECLUDE ANY CONCERN OF STEADIER / PERSISTENT SNOW
ACCUMULATIONS. THAT SAID, SOME BRIEF BURSTS OF SNOW AND
VISIBILITY DROPOUTS MAY OCCUR THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING, SO USE
CAUTION IF YOU FIND YOURSELF ON THE ROAD DURING ONE OF THESE
SNOW SHOWERS.
FOR TONIGHT, SPECIFICALLY BETWEEN 10 PM CST TODAY AND 4 AM CST
MONDAY (+/- 1 HOUR), A LAKE EFFECT SNOW BAND IS EXPECTED TO
DRIFT OVER FAR WESTERN PORTIONS OF LAKE MICHIGAN. AS IT
CURRENTLY STANDS, THERE IS A ROUGHLY 50% CHANCE FOR IT TO
MEANDER OVER FAR SOUTHEASTERN WI, AFFECTING THE CITIES OF RACINE
AND KENOSHA, AS WELL AS SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF MILWAUKEE COUNTY.
IF THE BAND REMAINS OVER LAKE MI, WE COULD OBSERVE COMPLETELY
DRY WEATHER. BUT, IF FOR EVEN JUST A SMALL FRACTION OF THIS TIME
WINDOW IT DRIFTS OVER SOUTHEASTERN WI, WE COULD EASILY OBSERVE A
BURST OF HEAVY SNOW TOTALING MULTIPLE INCHES IN A SHORT PERIOD
OF TIME. OWING TO THE RELATIVELY HIGH UNCERTAINTY WITH THIS
SCENARIO, NO WATCHES / ADVISORIES ARE IN EFFECT AT THE MOMENT,
BUT AT A MOMENTS NOTICE (ONLY A FEW HOURS PRIOR TO IMPACT, WHEN
WE HAVE THE SNOW BAND ON RADAR AND OBSERVE ITS MOVEMENT) WE
COULD WIND UP WITH A BURST OF HEAVY LAKE EFFECT SNOW. TO PUT
THINGS IN PERSPECTIVE, WE'VE GOT LAKE SURFACE TEMPS TOPPING OUT
AROUND 12-14 CELSIUS, WITH 850MB TEMPS ON MODEL GUIDANCE
BOTTOMING OUT AROUND -11 CELSIUS. THIS FAR EXCEEDS CRITICAL
DELTA T THRESHOLDS, AND WE'VE GOT A 100-150 MILE FETCH BASED ON
THE SHAPE OF LAKE MICHIGAN AND THE NORTH TO NORTHEASTERLY WIND
FIELD OVER IT. WE'VE EVEN ADDED CHANCES FOR THUNDER (OVER LAKE
MICHIGAN) TO COMPENSATE FOR THIS LEVEL OF LAKE EFFECT
INSTABILITY.
SHEPPARD
LONG TERM
ISSUED 420 AM CST SUN NOV 9 2025
MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY:
THE DEEP UPPER TROUGH OVER MI AND THE OHIO RIVER VALLEY WILL
PROGRESS EWD TO THE NERN USA ON MONDAY. 500 MB HEIGHT RISES ARE
EXPECTED OVER SRN WI ALTHOUGH A FINAL BAND OF PVA WILL MOVE
THROUGH THE AREA ALONG WITH SOME MID LEVEL WARM ADVECTION. KEPT
20% CHANCES FOR LIGHT SNOW OVER EAST CENTRAL WI.
NWLY FLOW ALOFT WITH SEVERAL VORTICITY MAXIMUMS IS THEN EXPECTED
INTO THU. AT THE SURFACE, A WEAK RIDGE WILL PASS MON NT FOLLOWED
QUICKLY BY A TROUGH AND WARM FRONTAL PASSAGE ON TUE. STRONG
850-700 MB WARM ADVECTION IS FORECAST WITHIN AN INITIALLY DRY
AIRMASS. MUCH OF THE LIFT MAY GO TOWARD MOISTENING THEN ENDING.
DID GO WITH 20-30% CHANCES FOR LGT SNOW TUE AM POSSIBLY LINGERING
INTO THE EARLY AFTERNOON OVER FAR ERN WI. MORE WIDESPREAD LIGHT
SNOW COULD EASILY OCCUR TUE AM IF MOISTENING ACCELERATES GREATER
THAN WHAT THE MODELS DEPICT AT THIS TIME. A WEAK COLD FRONTAL
PASSAGE WITH A WIND SHIFT TO WNWLY WILL OCCUR TUE NT WITH BRISK
WINDS CONTINUING THROUGH WED. THIS IS IN RESPONSE TO STRONG LOW
PRESSURE TRACKING FROM ONTARIO INTO QUEBEC. OVERALL THOUGH A
WARMING TREND WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE WEEK. A LARGE UPPER TROUGH
WILL MOVE INTO THE WRN USA ON FRI WITH UPPER RIDGING SHIFTING FROM
THE GREAT PLAINS INTO THE GREAT LAKES. A LEE SIDE TROUGH WILL
DEVELOP AND MOVE OUT INTO THE GREAT PLAINS DURING THIS PERIOD.
MOST RAIN SHOWERS WILL LIKELY HOLD OFF UNTIL AFTER SAT.
GEHRING
AVIATION
ISSUED 940 AM CST SUN NOV 9 2025
GUSTY NORTH TO NORTHWESTERLY EXPECTED ACROSS SOUTHERN WI TODAY,
BUT WITH SOME CLEARING TO THE WEST AND LINGERING CEILINGS AND
CLOUD HEIGHTS REMAINING ABOVE 4-6KFT, VFR CONDITIONS WILL
PREVAIL. MAY SEE A FEW OFF AND ON LIGHT SNOW/FLURRIES RETURN
AGAIN THIS THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING AS AN UPPER-LEVEL
SHORTWAVE TROUGH DIGS DOWN ACROSS THE AREA. OTHERWISE, GUSTY
WINDS LOOK TO PERSIST TONIGHT. LOWER CEILINGS AND VISIBILITY
WILL BE POSSIBLE FOR TERMINALS ALONG THE LAKESHORE THIS EVENING
INTO MONDAY AS A LAKE EFFECT BAND IS PROGGED TO SET UP AND BRING
LOWER CLOUDS AND EVEN SOME MODERATE TO HEAVY SNOWFALL DEPENDING
WHERE IT SETS UP. CURRENT THINKING IS MKE AND ENW HAVE THE
BETTER POTENTIAL TO SEE ACCUMULATING SNOW AND IMPACTS FROM THIS
BAND FOR A PERIOD OF TIME OVERNIGHT, BUT MAY BE ON THE WESTERN
EDGE AS THE HIGHER SNOWFALL RATES AND GREATER IMPACTS MAY END UP
STAYING TO THE THE EAST, ALONG AND JUST INLAND OF THE LAKESHORE
AREAS. SO WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR AND SEE HOW THIS BANDS SETS
UP LATER THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING.
WAGNER
MARINE
ISSUED 420 AM CST SUN NOV 9 2025
NORTH TO NORTHWEST WINDS WILL INCREASE THIS MORNING ON THE BACK
SIDE OF DEPARTING LOW PRESSURE (AROUND 29.7 INCHES) TRACKING EAST
THROUGH OHIO. STRONG HIGH PRESSURE (30.6 INCHES) MOVING INTO THE
DAKOTAS TODAY WILL FURTHER STRENGTHEN THE PRESSURE GRADIENT,
ALLOWING GUSTS TO REACH GALE FORCE TODAY AND TONIGHT. A GALE
WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE LAKE. HEAVY
LAKE EFFECT SNOW IS EXPECTED TONIGHT INTO MONDAY. WINDS WILL VARY
BETWEEN NORTHWEST AND SOUTHWEST THE FIRST HALF OF NEXT WEEK, WHILE
REMAINING GUSTY THROUGH THIS PERIOD. WINDS MAY APPROACH OR REACH
GALE FORCE AT TIMES AGAIN TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY.
SHEPPARD
MKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
WI...NONE.
LM...GALE WARNING...LMZ080-LMZ669-LMZ671-LMZ673-LMZ675-LMZ777-
LMZ779-LMZ870-LMZ872-LMZ874-LMZ876-LMZ878 UNTIL 6 AM
MONDAY.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY...LMZ643-LMZ644-LMZ645-LMZ646 UNTIL 9 PM
MONDAY.
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