848
FXUS63 KMKX 250222 AAA
AFDMKX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MILWAUKEE/SULLIVAN WI
922 PM CDT THU OCT 24 2024
KEY MESSAGES
- CONFIDENCE IS HIGH (80-100% CHANCE) FOR SHOWERS TONIGHT INTO
EARLY FRIDAY MORNING AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT.
- A FEW RUMBLES OF THUNDER ARE POSSIBLE WITH THE SHOWERS,
ESPECIALLY IN SOUTHWESTERN TO FAR SOUTHERN WISCONSIN. SOME
SMALL HAIL MAY OCCUR WITH THUNDERSTORMS IN SOUTHWEST
WISCONSIN.
- HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN IN THE MID 50S TO MID 60S
THROUGH THE WEEKEND, WITH A WARMING TREND EARLY NEXT WEEK.
UPDATE
ISSUED 922 PM CDT THU OCT 24 2024
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MOVED INTO SOUTH CENTRAL WI
JUST AFTER 7PM. THESE ARE ALONG THE NOSE OF THE LOW LEVEL JET
AND HAVE BEEN STEADILY LIFTING NORTHEASTWARD SINCE THE LATE AFTERNOON
WHEN THEY DEVELOPED IN NORTHEAST IA. THERE ARE TWO OTHER AREAS
OF STORMS: ONE THAT TRACKED FROM SOUTHERN MN AND IS NOW OVER LA
CROSSE, ASSOCIATED WITH 850MB FRONTOGENESIS; AND ANOTHER ONE IN
CENTRAL AND EASTERN IA THAT HAS MORE OF AN EASTWARD TRAJECTORY
THAT LOOKS LIKE IT WILL STAY ON THE IL SIDE OF THE WI/IL BORDER,
ASSOCIATED WITH LOWER LEVEL FGEN, WAA, HIGHER DEWPOINTS, AND
MORE INSTABILITY.
THE INITIAL WAVE OF ELEVATED WARM AIR ADVECTION (WAA) HAD PRETTY
SPARSE COVERAGE THROUGH SOUTHERN WI, BUT I AM EXPECTING SHOWERS
TO FILL IN OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS WITH PERSISTENT WAA.
THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE AS AN UPPER TROUGH TRACKS
OVERHEAD AND GIVES US STEEP MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES. SMALL HAIL IS
POSSIBLE AS WELL. THERE IS A SMALL THREAT FOR GUSTY WINDS WITH
THE STORMS APPROACHING FROM LA CROSSE, BUT THERE APPEARS TO BE
A WEAKENING TREND TO THAT LINE.
AFTER MIDNIGHT, THE CHANCE FOR THUNDER REALLY DIMINISHES. THE
SURFACE COLD FRONT WILL TAKE ITS TIME GETTING HERE, SO THERE IS
A CHANCE OF LIGHT SHOWERS WITH LOWERING CLOUD BASES AND LIGHTER
WINDS (AND ALSO LIGHT FOG) OVERNIGHT INTO MID FRIDAY MORNING.
CRONCE
SHORT TERM
ISSUED 219 PM CDT THU OCT 24 2024
TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT:
MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES WILL CONTINUE INTO LATE AFTERNOON, WITH
INCREASING CLOUDS EARLY THIS EVENING AHEAD OF A TROUGH OF LOW
PRESSURE. MOISTURE WILL INCREASE QUITE A BIT AHEAD OF THE
TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT, WITH PRECIPITABLE WATER
VALUES RISING FROM ABOUT .40" THIS AFTERNOON TO JUST OVER AN
INCH BY LATE EVENING. THIS COMBINED WITH INCREASING WARM AIR
ADVECTION ALOFT AND THE FORCING WITH THE TROUGH/FRONT WILL
RESULT IN A ROUND OF SHOWERS ACROSS SOUTHERN WISCONSIN. THE
SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED TO MOVE INTO THE WEST BY 9-10 PM, REACHING
EASTERN AREAS BY MIDNIGHT. SHOWERS WILL WIND DOWN WEST TO EAST
OVERNIGHT. MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW SOME ELEVATED INSTABILITY
ACROSS AT LEAST THE SOUTH HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA, SO KEPT THE
MENTION OF THUNDER GOING. WOULDN'T BE SURPRISED BY A LITTLE
SMALL HAIL IN THE SOUTH GIVEN DECENT MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES AND
MODERATE DEEP LAYER SHEAR.
SHOWERS SHOULD BE ABOUT OUT OF THE EAST BY DAYBREAK FRIDAY WITH
GRADUALLY DECREASING CLOUDS THROUGH THE DAY AS HIGH PRESSURE
BEGINS TO MOVE IN FROM THE WEST. IT WILL BE A BIT COOLER BEHIND
THE COLD FRONT TOMORROW, BUT SOME SUNSHINE BY THE AFTERNOON WILL
HELP HIGH TEMPS UP TOWARDS THE 60 DEGREE MARK MOST PLACES.
MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHTER WINDS TOMORROW NIGHT WILL ALLOW
TEMPS TO FALL A BIT BELOW NORMAL FOR OVERNIGHT LOWS, WITH LOW TO
MID 30S EXPECTED ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA.
DDV
LONG TERM
ISSUED 219 PM CDT THU OCT 24 2024
SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY:
HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE THROUGH OVER THE WEEKEND, BRINGING
MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AND DRY WEATHER TO SOUTHERN WISCONSIN. HIGH
TEMPS SATURDAY WILL BE NEAR NORMAL IN THE MID 50S MOST PLACES,
WITH TEMPS WARMING BACK UP A BIT SUNDAY AS SOUTHERLY WINDS
DEVELOP ON THE BACK SIDE OF THE DEPARTING HIGH.
TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO WARM EARLY NEXT WEEK UNDER
PERSISTENT SOUTHERLY LOW LEVEL FLOW, WITH UPPER LEVEL RIDGING
BUILDING IN AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING TROUGH. COULD SEE A FEW
SHOWERS MONDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY TUESDAY AS WARM AIR ADVECTION
ALOFT AND MOISTURE INCREASE AHEAD OF THE TROUGH. IT LOOKS LIKE A
DRY SLOT COULD SLIDE UP INTO SOUTHERN WISCONSIN TUESDAY, WHICH
WOULD END SHOWER CHANCES BY THE AFTERNOON AND ALSO CONTRIBUTE TO
THE WARMER TEMPS. HIGHS TUESDAY MAY APPROACH 80 DEGREES GIVEN
ENOUGH SUNSHINE IN THE AFTERNOON.
MOISTURE WILL INCREASE AGAIN ON WEDNESDAY AS THE TROUGH AND
ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT DRAW NEAR, WITH PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES
AROUND 1.5" PER 12Z DETERMINISTIC MODELS. PRECIP CHANCES ARE
HIGHEST (50-70%) WEDNESDAY EVENING INTO THURSDAY MORNING AS THE
STRONGER FORCING MOVES THROUGH. NOT A LOT OF INSTABILITY AHEAD
OF THE COLD FRONT, SO LEFT THUNDER OUT OF THE FORECAST FOR NOW.
WOULDN'T BE SURPRISED BY A FEW RUMBLES OF THUNDER THOUGH. HIGH
TEMPS WEDNESDAY SHOULD REMAIN WELL ABOVE NORMAL IN THE 70S, WITH
THE COLD FRONT STILL WEST OF THE AREA THROUGH AT LEAST THE
MORNING HOURS.
SHOWERS MAY LINGER INTO THURSDAY, DEPENDING ON THE SPEED OF THE
FRONT. LOOKS MAINLY DRY BY THE AFTERNOON THOUGH, WITH COOLER
HIGH TEMPS CLOSER TO NORMAL BEHIND THE COLD FRONT.
DDV
AVIATION
ISSUED 922 PM CDT THU OCT 24 2024
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED UNTIL
AROUND MIDNIGHT. THEN EXPECT LOWERING CLOUD BASES, SCATTERED
LIGHT SHOWERS OR DRIZZLE, LIGHT WINDS, AND LIGHT FOG DURING THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS. THE COLD FRONT WILL TRACK ACROSS SOUTHERN WI
BETWEEN 12 AND 15Z FRIDAY MORNING AND HELP SCOUR OUT THE LOW
CLOUDS. GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS AND SUNSHINE ARE EXPECTED FRIDAY
AFTERNOON.
CRONCE
MARINE
ISSUED 219 PM CDT THU OCT 24 2024
MODERATE SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL CONTINUE TONIGHT BETWEEN HIGH
PRESSURE OVER THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES AND A TROUGH OF LOW
PRESSURE APPROACHING FROM THE WEST. WAVES WILL GET NEAR THE 4
FOOT MARK NORTH OF PORT WASHINGTON FOR A TIME TONIGHT. OVERALL
THOUGH, IT LOOKS LIKE CONDITIONS ARE TOO BORDERLINE FOR A SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORY.
LOW PRESSURE WILL THEN PASS JUST NORTH OF LAKE SUPERIOR
OVERNIGHT, DRAGGING A COLD FRONT ACROSS LAKE MICHIGAN LATE FRIDAY
MORNING. THIS SYSTEM WILL BRING SHOWERS AND POSSIBLY A FEW
RUMBLES OF THUNDER TONIGHT INTO EARLY FRIDAY. ADDITIONALLY,
WINDS WILL VEER TO THE NORTHWEST BY LATE MORNING FRIDAY BEHIND
THE COLD FRONT. BREEZY NORTHWEST WINDS WILL CONTINUE ON FRIDAY
AHEAD OF APPROACHING HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS.
DDV
MKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
WI...NONE.
LM...NONE.
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