430
FXUS63 KMKX 160223
AFDMKX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MILWAUKEE/SULLIVAN WI
923 PM CDT TUE SEP 15 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- HIGH SWIM RISK WEDNESDAY MORNING AT MILWAUKEE & RACINE COUNTY BEACHES,
WITH A MODERATE SWIM RISK AT OZAUKEE AND KENOSHA COUNTY
BEACHES.
- ISOLATED SPRINKLES/SHOWERS POSSIBLE NEAR THE WISCONSIN-
ILLINOIS BORDER TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON, WITH
BETTER CHANCES FOR SCATTERED SHOWERS AREAWIDE WEDNESDAY NIGHT
INTO THURSDAY. NO HAZARDS ARE EXPECTED.
- HIGHER CHANCES FOR SHOWERS & STORMS ARRIVE FRIDAY-FRIDAY
NIGHT, CONTINUING OFF & ON INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. WILL BE
WATCHING FOR LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL & POSSIBLE FLOODING
IMPACTS FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY.
SHORT TERM
ISSUED 930 PM CDT TUE SEP 15 2026
CURRENT OVERNIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT:
SYNOPSIS/MESOANALYSIS: A PAIR OF SURFACE FRONTS ARE EVIDENT OVER THE
UPPER MIDWEST THIS EVENING. THE SOUTHERN OF THE TWO FRONTS---WHICH
WILL LINGER REGIONALLY THROUGH THE DURATION OF THE SHORT TERM PERIOD-
--REMAINS QUASI-STATIONARY OVER CENTRAL ILLINOIS, AND WILL BE A
FOCUS FOR LOW LEVEL JET-DRIVEN CONVECTION THROUGH TONIGHT. MOST IF
NOT ALL OF THIS PRECIP WILL STAY SOUTH OF THE REGION. THE NORTHERN
BOUNDARY EXTENDS ALONG AN APPROXIMATE LUDINGTON, MICHIGAN - WAUKESHA
- JANESVILLE LINE. WHILE MORE DIFFUSE THAN ITS SOUTHERN COUNTERPART,
A SHARP CHANGE IN AIR MASSES OCCURS ACROSS THE NORTHERN FRONT, WITH
A MUCH DRIER CANADIAN AIR MASS SETTLING IN BEHIND IT. THE NORTHERN
FRONT WILL DROP THROUGH THE REST OF SOUTHERN WISCONSIN OVERNIGHT AS
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE NORTHERN PLAINS, BRINGING
NOTICEABLY LESS MUGGY CONDITIONS THROUGH DAYBREAK. THE HIGH WILL
CONTINUE EASTWARD TOMORROW AFTERNOON & NIGHT, ALLOWING WINDS TO
TREND SOUTH-SOUTHEASTERLY REGIONWIDE. THE LARGER SCALE SHIFT IN WIND
DIRECTION WILL ALLOW THE CURRENTLY STATIONARY SOUTHERN FRONT TO
BEGIN RETURNING NORTH AS A WARM FRONT. WHILE THE BOUNDARY IS
EXPECTED TO REMAIN SOUTH OF THE WISCONSIN-ILLINOIS BORDER,
INCREASING LOW LEVEL WARM ADVECTION WILL PROMOTE SCATTERED SHOWER
DEVELOPMENT TOMORROW NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING. A NEW AREA OF
HIGH PRESSURE WILL SETTLE INTO THE AREA THURSDAY AFTERNOON & NIGHT,
KEEPING CONDITIONS DRY THROUGH THE CONCLUSION OF THE SHORT TERM
PERIOD.
REST OF OVERNIGHT: WILL BE MONITORING LOW LEVEL JET-DRIVEN
CONVECTION IN THE VICINITY OF THE SOUTHERN SURFACE FRONT OVER NORTH-
CENTRAL ILLINOIS. CURRENT EXPECTATIONS ARE FOR STRENGTHENING HIGH
PRESSURE OVER NORTHERN WISCONSIN TO CONTINUE FUNNELING DRIER AIR
SOUTHWARD, ACTING TO KEEP THE BULK OF STORMS COMFORTABLY SOUTH OF
THE CWA. IN THE EVENT HIGHER MOISTURE LINGERS ALONG THE STATE LINE,
AN ISOLATED SHOWER OR SPRINKLE WOULD BE POSSIBLE. HAVE THUS
MAINTAINED ~10% PRECIP PROBABILITIES TO THE SOUTH OF I-94 & US-18,
WITH THE EXPECTATION THAT THE MAJORITY OF LOCATIONS STAY DRY. NO
HAZARDS ARE EXPECTED IN THE EVENT AN ISOLATED SHOWER FORMS.
WEDNESDAY: BUILDING WAVES WILL LEAD TO A HIGH SWIMMING RISK AT
RACINE AND MILWAUKEE COUNTY BEACHES, WHERE A BEACH HAZARDS STATEMENT
IS NOW IN EFFECT BETWEEN 6 AM AND 12 PM CDT. EXERCISE EXTREME
CAUTION IF HEADING LAKESIDE, AND BE SURE TO STAY WELL AWAY FROM
BREAKWATERS AND PIERS. SMALL (~10-15%) SPRINKLE/SHOWER CHANCES WILL
CONTINUE INTO THROUGH THE AFTERNOON HOURS NEAR THE WISCONSIN-
ILLINOIS BORDER, WITH HAZARDS NOT ANTICIPATED IN ANY ACTIVITY.
WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY MORNING: COMBINATION OF ELEVATED WARM
ADVECTION POLEWARD OF THE SOUTHERN SURFACE FRONT & LIFT AHEAD OF A
WEAK DISTURBANCE APPROACHING FROM THE NORTHERN PLAINS WILL LIKELY BE
SUFFICIENT FOR SCATTERED SHOWER DEVELOPMENT. GIVEN THE BROADER
NATURE OF INCREASING FORCING, HAVE INSERTED ~20-40% PRECIP
PROBABILITIES AREAWIDE, WITH VALUES GRADUALLY CONTRACTING TOWARD &
SOUTH OF THE STATE LINE AS HIGH PRESSURE MOVES IN ON THURSDAY
AFTERNOON. PRECIP WILL BE ONGOING WITHIN AN UNSEASONABLY MOIST
ENVIRONMENT, THOUGH A LACK OF INSTABILITY IN FORECAST SOUNDINGS
POINTS TOWARD LOW POTENTIAL FOR ENHANCED RAINFALL RATES & HYDRO
IMPACTS AT THIS TIME. WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR FOR POSSIBLE CHANGES.
QUIGLEY
LONG TERM
ISSUED 250 PM CDT TUE SEP 15 2026
THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY:
WHILE THE SURFACE FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL BE SOUTH OF THE WI/IL
BORDER THURSDAY MORNING, THE BROAD, WEAK 850MB FRONT WILL
CONTINUE TO SIT OVER NORTHERN IL. WHILE THE OVERALL FORCING WILL
BE TOO WEAK FOR AN ORGANIZED AREA OF RAIN, WE CANNOT RULE OUT A
FEW LIGHT SHOWERS OR SPRINKLES THROUGH THE WHOLE DAY. IN
ADDITION, THERE COULD BE A PUSH OF COOLER AIR DOWN THE AXIS OF
LAKE MICHIGAN THAT CONVERGES OVER SOUTHEAST WI AND COULD PRODUCE A
FEW SHOWERS ALONG IT IN THE LATE AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
WARM AIR ADVECTION WILL RESUME THURSDAY NIGHT OVER EASTERN IOWA.
THIS IS ASSOCIATED WITH A MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH
APPROACHING FROM THE NORTHERN PLAINS. THE 850MB WARM FRONT (AND
RAIN) WILL SLOWLY SPREAD INTO SOUTHWEST WI FRIDAY MORNING.
HOWEVER, THE SYSTEM WILL BE OCCLUDING WHICH WILL SLOW DOWN THE
PROGRESSION OF THIS FRONT INTO SOUTHERN WI.
THERE IS HIGHEST CONFIDENCE IN WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND A FEW
THUNDERSTORMS IMPACTING SOUTHERN WI FROM LATE FRIDAY EVENING
THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING. THIS IS WHEN THE MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE
TROUGH AND SURFACE LOW TRACK ACROSS SOUTHERN WI. WE WILL HAVE THE
FRONT FOCUSED RIGHT OVERHEAD FOR ABOUT A TWELVE HOUR PERIOD WITH
THE LOW LEVEL JET VEERING RIGHT OVER US, PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES
WILL BE AROUND 2 INCHES AGAIN, AND WE WILL BE ALONG THE
INSTABILITY GRADIENT. THESE INGREDIENTS PUT US IN A FAVORABLE
POSITION FOR A HEAVY RAIN RISK. KEEP UP WITH THE FORECAST WITH
THIS SCENARIO.
SUNDAY IS LOOKING DRIER FOR US, ALTHOUGH LINGERING CLOUDS AND
LIGHT RAIN/SPRINKLES SHOULD STILL BE POSSIBLE. THEN YET ANOTHER
MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH TREKKING ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS
WILL ARRIVE IN THE UPPER MIDWEST BY SUNDAY NIGHT OR MONDAY MORNING
AND BRING MORE RAIN CHANCES TO SOUTHERN WI.
CRONCE
AVIATION
ISSUED 930 PM CDT TUE SEP 15 2026
MOSTLY VFR FLIGHT CATEGORIES PREVAIL THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THIS
EVENING THROUGH THE DAY WEDNESDAY. OBSERVED EARLIER IN THE EVENING
NEAR THE WISCONSIN-ILLINOIS BORDER, -RA & MVFR CIG POTENTIAL WILL
SHUNT SOUTH OF THE STATE LINE THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF TONIGHT. HIGH
PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO NUDGE INTO NORTHERN WISCONSIN TONIGHT,
BRINGING A NORTH-NORTHEAST WIND SHIFT AT ALL TERMINALS. THE HIGH
WILL CONTINUE EAST THROUGH WEDNESDAY, BRINGING AN EAST-SOUTHEAST
WIND SHIFT BY MID-LATE AFTERNOON. WARM ADVECTION WILL INCREASE
REGIONALLY WEDNESDAY EVENING, WITH GRADUALLY-LOWERING CIGS
EVENTUALLY LEADING TO AT LEAST MVFR CONDITIONS OVERNIGHT. RAIN
SHOWERS MAY ACCOMPANY THE LOWERING CIGS. HAVE ACCOUNTED FOR THIS
POTENTIAL WITH PROB30 GROUPS AT ALL AERODROMES, WITH THE NEED FOR
TEMPO AND/OR PREVAILING MENTIONS BEING ASSESSED THROUGH
TOMORROW.
QUIGLEY
MARINE
ISSUED 250 PM CDT TUE SEP 15 2026
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND WEAK THUNDERSTORMS REMAIN POSSIBLE OVER
SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE LAKE LATER TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY AS A
FRONTAL BOUNDARY REMAINS STALLED SOUTH OF THE LAKE. A SEPARATE
COLD FRONT IS SET TO CROSS THE LAKE LATER THIS AFTERNOON,
ALLOWING THE ONGOING BREEZY SOUTHWEST WINDS TO VEER NORTHWEST
AND DECELERATE.
HIGH PRESSURE AROUND 30.4 INCHES WILL TRACK EAST ACROSS SOUTHERN
ONTARIO CANADA LATE TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY, VEERING WINDS DUE
NORTH THEN NORTHEAST. PREDOMINANTLY LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS
EXPECTED LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY AS ADDITIONAL
HIGH PRESSURE FORMS OVER MANITOBA AND WEAKENS THE PRESSURE
GRADIENT.
BREEZY EAST TO NORTHEAST WINDS MAY THEN DEVELOP LATE THIS WEEK
INTO THIS WEEKEND AS THE AFOREMENTIONED HIGH PRESSURE SHIFTS
EAST ACROSS ONTARIO CANADA AND LOW PRESSURE SPREADS EAST FROM
THE GREAT PLAINS. THE GRADIENT BETWEEN THESE TWO SYSTEMS COULD
DRIVE GUSTY WINDS FROM VARIOUS DIRECTIONS DEPENDING ON SYSTEM
TRACK, THOUGH OUR BEST GUESS IS PREDOMINANTLY EAST (NORTHEAST TO
SOUTHEAST) FOR THE TIME BEING.
NEARSHORE ZONES:
FOR ZONES SOUTH OF PORT WASHINGTON, EXPECTING WAVES TO APPROACH
THE 4 FT MARK FOR A BRIEF PERIOD WEDNESDAY MORNING, AND A SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORY IS POSSIBLE DEPENDING ON CONFIDENCE / DURATION.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS ARE LOOKING LIKELY AT TIMES THIS
WEEKEND FOR ALL NEARSHORE ZONES DUE TO GUSTY EAST WINDS AND
BUILDING WAVES.
SHEPPARD
MKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
WI...BEACH HAZARDS STATEMENT...WIZ066-WIZ071...6 AM WEDNESDAY TO
NOON WEDNESDAY.
LM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY...LMZ644-LMZ645-LMZ646...6 AM WEDNESDAY
TO NOON WEDNESDAY.
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