501
FXUS63 KMKX 160900
AFDMKX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MILWAUKEE/SULLIVAN WI
400 AM CDT TUE SEP 16 2025
KEY MESSAGES
- PATCHY FOG IN THE LOW LYING AREAS OF THE WISCONSIN RIVER
VALLEY AND POTENTIALLY IN SHEBOYGAN, OZAUKEE, WASHINGTON,
WAUKESHA COUNTIES THIS MORNING.
- HIGH CONFIDENCE IN ABOVE AVERAGE TEMPERATURES IN THE MID TO
UPPER 80S THROUGH WEDNESDAY, WITH HIGHS IN THE LOWER 80S STILL
EXPECTED ON THURSDAY.
- RAIN CHANCES TO END THE WEEK INTO NEXT WEEKEND ARE HIGHLY
UNCERTAIN. FORECAST HAS CONTINUED TO TREND DRIER WEDNESDAY AND
THURSDAY, WITH THE MOST CONFIDENCE (30 TO 50 PERCENT CHANCES)
FRIDAY AND SATURDAY.
SHORT TERM
ISSUED 345 AM CDT TUE SEP 16 2025
TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY:
MORNING FOG WILL BE POSSIBLE FROM INLAND PORTIONS OF SHEBOYGAN
COUNTY, SOUTH THROUGH WAUKESHA COUNTY. FOG WILL LIFT AND MIX OUT
AFTER DAWN.
THEN, DRY QUIET CONDITIONS CONTINUE TODAY BENEATH HIGH PRESSURE.
HIGHS WILL BE IN THE LOW TO MID 80S, WITH LOW TEMPERATURES IN
THE UPPER 50S TO LOW 60S TONIGHT.
SIMILAR CONDITIONS ARE THEN EXPECTED WEDNESDAY.
CMILLER
LONG TERM
ISSUED 342 AM CDT TUE SEP 16 2025
WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY:
HEADING INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO SLOW
DOWN THE PROGRESSION OF THE CUT OFF LOW IN THE CENTRAL/NORTHERN
PLAINS. THIS ISNT ENTIRELY OUT OF THE ORDINARY AS GUIDANCE TENDS TO
HAVE A BIAS WITH FASTER FORWARD PROGRESSION OF CUT OFF LOWS THAN
REALITY. THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IN THE HUDSON BAY WILL CONTINUE
TO MOVE NORTHEAST AND DRAG A COLD FRONT THROUGH WISCONSIN. THE
PROGRESSION OF THIS COLD FRONT WILL ALSO BE EFFECTED BY THIS SLOW
MOVING CUTOFF LOW. SO ITS ENTIRELY LIKELY THAT POPS WILL DECREASE
AGAIN ON THURSDAY AND ANY SHOWER OR STORMS ACTIVITY WILL RIDE
OVER THE RIDGE THAT IS IN PLACE. SO AREAS ALONG WESTERN WISCONSIN
MAY RETAIN THOSE LOW CHANCES AROUND 10-20%. LIKEWISE UNDER THE
RIDGE TEMPERATURES SHOULD REMAIN LARGELY THE SAME.
GIVEN THE CONSIDERABLE UNCERTAINTY WITH THE PROGRESSION OF THE
TROUGH THERE WILL BE BROAD LIFT SLOW MOVING EASTWARD INTO THE STATE.
THIS BROAD LIFT WITH ABOVE AVERAGE TEMPS WILL CREATE SOME
INSTABILITY. ALL THIS IS TO SAY THERE COULD BE MULTIPLE ROUNDS/WAVES
OF SCATTED TO ISOLATED SHOWERS/STORMS FRIDAY AND INTO THE
WEEKEND. THIS TIMING OF THESE SHOWERS WILL BE HEAVILY DEPENDENT ON
THE LOCATION OF THIS CUT OF LOW AND THE STRENGTH OF THE RIDGE.
SATURDAY CURRENTLY LOOKS TO HAVE THE BEST POTENTIAL FOR RAIN
AROUND 20-30%. THIS COULD SHIFT SLIGHT IN TIME STILL YET, SO IT
BEST TO STAY UP TO DATE WITH THE FORECAST FOR THE WEEKEND. FOR
THOSE LOOKING FOR TEMPERATURES A BIT CLOSER TO NORMAL (MID TO LOW
70S IS NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR FOR HIGHS), ONCE THE UPPER
LEVEL LOW PASSES COOLER AIR SHOULD START TO MOVE IN.
PATTERSON
AVIATION
ISSUED 340 AM CDT TUE SEP 16 2025
AFTER SOME MORNING FOG OVER EAST CENTRAL WI AND NEAR THE
WISCONSIN RIVER VALLEY, VFR CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST THROUGH
TODAY AMID LIGHT SOUTH TO SOUTHEAST WINDS.
CMILLER
MARINE
ISSUED 337 AM CDT TUE SEP 16 2025
HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN OVER LAKE MICHIGAN THROUGH WEDNESDAY
AS WEAK LOW PRESSURE SLOWLY LIFTS FROM NORTHERN NORTH DAKOTA
INTO THE HUDSON BAY TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY. EXPECT LIGHT,
GENERALLY SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS THROUGH WEDNESDAY. A FEW AREAS OF
FOG ARE POSSIBLE EACH NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY AS WARM WATER AND
HIGH PRESSURE DOMINATE THE WEATHER PATTERN.
EXPECTING WINDS TO BECOME EASTERLY INTO THURSDAY AS LOW
PRESSURE DEVELOPS IN THE CENTRAL PLAINS, INCREASING AND BECOMING
NORTHEASTERLY THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY AS LOW PRESSURE
APPROACHES. A FEW THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE ALONG A WARM FRONT
THURSDAY NIGHT IN THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE OPEN WATERS.
CMILLER
MKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
WI...NONE.
LM...NONE.
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