209
FXUS63 KMKX 210609
AFDMKX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MILWAUKEE/SULLIVAN WI
1209 AM CST SAT FEB 21 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- OCCASIONAL CHANCES FOR FLURRIES/LIGHT SNOW THIS WEEKEND,
ESPECIALLY SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY MORNING (10-40%
CHANCES).
- BREEZY NORTH TO NORTHWEST WINDS SUNDAY INTO MONDAY,
PARTICULARLY GUSTY OVER LAKE MICHIGAN (GALES WILL BE
POSSIBLE).
SHORT TERM
ISSUED 1205 AM CST SAT FEB 21 2026
TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY:
A WEAK SURFACE PRESSURE TROUGH (LINGERING IN THE WAKE OF THE
DEPARTED LOW PRESSURE) DRAPED ACROSS MICHIGAN WILL WORK WITH POLAR
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING INTO SOUTH CENTRAL CANADA TO DRIVE A LIGHT
NORTHWEST BREEZE, WHICH INTENSIFIES INTO SUNDAY AS THE PRESSURE
GRADIENT TIGHTENS. AS THE SURFACE PRESSURE TROUGH DISSOLVES AND
SAGS SOUTHWARD TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY MORNING, IT INTERACTS WITH A
PASSING UPPER TROUGH TO PRODUCE CHANCES FOR FLURRIES, OR EVEN A
DUSTING OF LIGHT SNOW (MAINLY TOWARDS EAST-CENTRAL WI). A STRAY
FLURRY OR SNOW SHOWER LATER IN THE DAY ON SUNDAY CANNOT BE
RULED OUT EITHER. THE LATEST MODEL GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THE GRAND
TOTAL SNOWFALL FROM THIS ACTIVITY OUGHT TO BE LESS THAN AN INCH
AND MINIMALLY IMPACTFUL.
SHEPPARD
LONG TERM
ISSUED 1205 AM CST SAT FEB 21 2026
SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY:
ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO BUILD SOUTHWARD INTO EARLY NEXT
WEEK, CENTERED OVER WESTERN ONTARIO CANADA WITH A RIDGE OF SURFACE
HIGH PRESSURE REACHING SOUTH INTO THE EASTERN DAKOTAS / MN. THE
PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN THIS SYSTEM AND A WINTER STORM ALONG THE
ATLANTIC COAST WILL ALLOW A NORTH TO NORTHWEST BREEZE TO CONTINUE
OVER OUR REGION SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY, ALONG WITH HIGH
TEMPERATURES AROUND 10 DEGREES BELOW SEASONAL NORMS. THE ARCTIC HIGH
RAPIDLY BREAKS DOWN THROUGH THE COURSE OF MONDAY, WITH WHAT'S LEFT
OF IT PASSING OVERHEAD AS A SURFACE PRESSURE RIDGE MONDAY EVENING.
LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS MONDAY EVENING TURN SOUTH INTO TUESDAY,
ALLOWING TEMPERATURES TO MODERATE UPWARDS.
PLENTY OF MODEL UNCERTAINTY GOING INTO MID NEXT WEEK, WITH TWO
SEPARATE CLIPPER SYSTEMS TRACKING EASTWARD ACROSS THE REGION.
ENSEMBLE IQRS FOR DAYTIME HIGH TEMPERATURE RANGE FROM AROUND
SEASONAL NORMS TO UPWARDS OF 10 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL DEPENDING ON
SYSTEM TRACK AND TIMING. AS SUCH, BOTH RAIN AND SNOW ARE POSSIBLE
WITH THESE SYSTEMS. THE FIRST OF THESE SYSTEMS IS SLATED TO TRACK
NORTH OF OR NEAR TO OUR REGION TUESDAY, WITH LIGHT SNOW AS THE
FAVORED PRECIP TYPE DUE TO THE ANTECEDENT COLD WEATHER. BETTER QPF /
SNOW POTENTIAL IS FOUND FURTHER NORTH AND EAST IN THE CWA, GIVEN THE
ENSEMBLE MEAN SYSTEM TRACK CENTERED THAT DIRECTION. NOTE THAT EVEN
THE MORE AGGRESSIVE ECMWF / GEFS ENSEMBLE MEMBERS (90TH PERCENTILE
FOR EXAMPLE) ARE ONLY ALLOWING AN INCH OR TWO OF SNOW TO FALL, WITH
SOME OTHER MEMBERS STRUGGLING TO PRODUCE MEASURABLE ACCUMULATIONS
PERIOD. PREDICTABILITY FALLS EVEN LOWER FOR THE SECOND SYSTEM
REGARDING THE TRACK AND INTENSITY, WHICH MAY MOVE THROUGH WEDNESDAY
OR THURSDAY. THE ONLY COMMON THREAD IN MOST GUIDANCE IS FOR A
RELATIVELY FAST MOVING (CLIPPER) SYSTEM TO UNFOLD, AS OPPOSED TO A
MORE ORGANIZED COLORADO LOW OR PANHANDLE HOOK. THIS SHOULD KEEP
PRECIP CHANCES AND QPF UNDER CONTROL.
SHEPPARD
AVIATION
ISSUED 1205 AM CST SAT FEB 21 2026
MVFR CLOUD CEILINGS AROUND 1,500 TO 3,000 FEET LOOK TO LINGER OVER
MUCH OF THE REGION THROUGH MUCH OF THE OVERNIGHT HOURS, GRADUALLY
SCATTERING APART. SCATTERED LOW AND HIGH ALTITUDE CLOUDS WITH
PREDOMINANTLY VFR EXPECTED SATURDAY MORNING INTO EARLY SATURDAY
AFTERNOON, FOLLOWED BY A REDEVELOPMENT OF MVFR CEILINGS (AT SIMILAR
ALTITUDES) SATURDAY EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT. 10-40% CHANCES
FOR FLURRIES OR A LIGHT DUSTING OF SNOW SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY
MORNING, MAINLY TOWARDS EAST-CENTRAL WI.
LIGHT NORTHWEST WINDS CONTINUE THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD, BECOMING
GUSTY INTO SUNDAY MORNING.
SHEPPARD
MARINE
ISSUED 1205 AM CST SAT FEB 21 2026
NORTHWEST TO NORTH WINDS WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE LAKE INTO EARLY
NEXT WEEK AS A STRONG POLAR HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS SOUTHWARD INTO
SOUTH CENTRAL CANADA. AS THE HIGH DRAWS CLOSER, THE PRESSURE
GRADIENT WILL TIGHTEN SUNDAY INTO MONDAY. GALES WILL BE POSSIBLE,
ESPECIALLY SUNDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH MONDAY MORNING. LIGHT AND
VARIABLE WINDS ARE THEN EXPECTED INTO MONDAY EVENING AS THE POLAR
HIGH WEAKENS AND DRIFTS OVERHEAD. A MODEST SOUTH BREEZE DEVELOPS
TUESDAY AS WEAK HIGH PRESSURE DRIFTS EAST OF THE REGION AND LOW
PRESSURE DEVELOPS WEST OF THE LAKE.
SHEPPARD
MKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
WI...NONE.
LM...NONE.
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