027
FXUS63 KMKX 090939
AFDMKX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MILWAUKEE/SULLIVAN WI
339 AM CST TUE MAR 9 2021
SHORT TERM
(ISSUED 339 AM CST TUE MAR 9 2021)
TODAY AND TONIGHT:
LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPING IN THE PLAINS TODAY WILL TRACK ACROSS
NORTHWEST WI TONIGHT AND INTO ONTARIO BY THURSDAY MORNING. LOOK
FOR INCREASING SOUTHERLY WINDS ACROSS SOUTHERN WI AHEAD OF THIS
SYSTEM. TEMPERATURES WILL BE A LITTLE WARMER THAN YESTERDAY, WITH
HIGHS IN THE LOWER 60S. LAKESHORE AREAS SHOULD TOP OUT IN THE 50S
DUE TO AN ONSHORE COMPONENT TO THE WIND. HIGH CLOUDS WILL STREAM
ACROSS THE AREA FOR MOST OF THE DAY.
TONIGHT, WINDS ABOVE THE SURFACE WILL RAMP UP WITH THE LOW LEVEL
JET, BUT STABLE AIR NEAR THE GROUND SHOULD PREVENT THOSE WINDS
FROM REACHING THE GROUND AS GUSTS. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN MILD
TONIGHT WITH STEADY SOUTHERLY WINDS, WITH LOWS IN THE UPPER 40S TO
AROUND 50.
CRONCE
LONG TERM
(ISSUED 339 AM CST TUE MAR 9 2021)
WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY:
LOOK FOR SHOWERS AND SOME ELEVATED THUNDERSTORMS TO SPREAD INTO
SOUTH CENTRAL WI FROM WEST TO EAST BEGINNING EARLY WEDNESDAY
MORNING WITH STRONG WARM AIR ADVECTION. THE SURFACE LOW WILL LIFT
INTO NORTHWEST WI BY WEDNESDAY EVENING. THIS IS FARTHER NORTH THAN
MODEL RUNS HAVE TAKEN THIS SYSTEM OVER THE PAST FEW DAYS, BUT
THERE IS CONSISTENCY BETWEEN THE MODELS ON THIS NORTHERLY
SOLUTION. THAT GETS SOUTHERN WI OUT OF THE FRONTAL PRECIP EARLIER
ON WEDNESDAY AND WE STAY DRY LONGER THAN WHAT WE HAD IN PREVIOUS
FORECASTS.
THE ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT WILL SLIDE THROUGH SOUTHERN WI THURSDAY
MORNING. WE SHOULD SEE A FEW SHOWERS WITH THIS FRONT, BUT THE
BETTER FORCING AND HIGHER CHANCES FOR PRECIP WILL ACTUALLY SPLIT
AROUND US. NORTHERN IL SHOULD SEE THE BRUNT OF THE QPF WITH THE
FRONT DURING THE DAY THURSDAY SINCE THE FRONT WILL ALREADY BE
THROUGH OUR AREA DURING PEAK HEATING. IN FACT, PRECIP CHANCES LOOK
LOWER FOR SOUTHERN WI ON THURSDAY THAN PREVIOUS FORECASTS. THUS,
OUR STORM TOTAL PRECIP IS NOW FORECAST TO BE AROUND A QUARTER
INCH RATHER THAN A HALF INCH. THERE IS STILL SOME UNCERTAINTY, BUT
SIGNS ARE POINTING TO LESS RAIN RATHER THAN MORE WITH THIS SYSTEM.
THE WEEKEND WILL BE DRY AND COOLER WITH HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE
REGION. A BIG, CLOSED UPPER LOW "BOWLING BALL" WILL SETTLE OVER
THE SOUTHWEST PORTION OF THE COUNTRY OVER THE WEEKEND AND MAKE ITS
WAY INTO THE MIDWEST/UPPER MIDWEST EARLY NEXT WEEK. THE GFS WANTS
TO BRING PRECIP INTO SOUTHERN WI SUNDAY AFTERNOON WHILE THE ECMWF
HOLDS IT OFF UNTIL MONDAY MORNING. MODELS HAVE A HARD TIME
HANDLING CLOSED UPPER LOWS, SO PREDICTABILITY IS LOW FOR PRECIP
CHANCES, BUT A SLOWER SOLUTION MAKES MORE SENSE IN THIS SCENARIO. THE
PRECIP WITH SYSTEM EARLY NEXT WEEK MAY BEGIN AS A WINTRY MIX
BEFORE CHANGING OVER TO RAIN.
CRONCE
AVIATION
(ISSUED 339 AM CST TUE MAR 9 2021)
SOME LIGHT, PATCHY FOG IS DEVELOPING ACROSS PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN
WI EARLY THIS MORNING, BUT THERE SHOULD BE ENOUGH WIND AND HIGH
CLOUDS TO KEEP IT FROM BECOMING TOO WIDESPREAD. EXPECT HIGH CLOUDS
TO STREAM ACROSS THE AREA ALL DAY. LOW CLOUDS WITH MVFR ARE
EXPECTED TO DEVELOP LATE TONIGHT AS LOW LEVEL WARM AIR ADVECTION
KICKS IN AHEAD OF LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPING IN THE PLAINS. SHOWERS
AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS ARE LIKELY WEDNESDAY MORNING, WITH LOWER
CHANCES WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND NIGHT. CEILINGS SHOULD RISE TO VFR
BY WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON.
CRONCE
MARINE
(ISSUED 339 AM CST TUE MAR 9 2021)
LOW PRESSURE APPROACHING FROM THE PLAINS WILL TRACK ACROSS
NORTHWEST WISCONSIN TONIGHT, THEN ACROSS LAKE SUPERIOR INTO
ONTARIO THURSDAY MORNING. LOOK FOR INCREASING SOUTHERLY WINDS
OVER LAKE MICHIGAN AHEAD OF THIS SYSTEM. WINDS JUST ABOVE THE
SURFACE WILL BE VERY STRONG FROM TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT.
WE MAY SEE A GALE FORCE GUST TONIGHT, BUT THE BEST CHANCE OF
SEEING ANY OF THESE STRONGER WINDS MIX DOWN AS GALE FORCE GUSTS
WILL BE WEDNESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT. THEREFORE, A GALE WATCH IS
IN EFFECT FOR THE LATTER PERIOD FOR THE WHOLE OPEN LAKE AND ALSO
THE NEARSHORE AREAS OF SOUTHEAST WI.
WINDS WILL DIMINISH AS THEY SWITCH TO THE WEST BEHIND THE SYSTEM
THURSDAY MORNING.
CRONCE
MKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
WI...NONE.
LM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY...LMZ643-LMZ644-LMZ645-LMZ646...NOON
TUESDAY TO 9 AM WEDNESDAY.
GALE WATCH...LMZ080-LMZ261-LMZ362-LMZ364-LMZ366-LMZ563-LMZ565-
LMZ567-LMZ643-LMZ644-LMZ645-LMZ646-LMZ669-LMZ671-LMZ673-
LMZ675-LMZ777-LMZ779-LMZ868-LMZ870-LMZ872-LMZ874-LMZ876-
LMZ878...9 AM WEDNESDAY TO 4 AM THURSDAY.
VISIT US AT WEATHER.GOV/MILWAUKEE
FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK, TWITTER, AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSMILWAUKEE
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSMILWAUKEE
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSMILWAUKEE
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.
Main Text Page