430
FXUS63 KMKX 070513
AFDMKX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MILWAUKEE/SULLIVAN WI
1213 AM CDT MON SEP 7 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- PATCHY DENSE FOG EXPECTED IN LOW-LYING AREAS OF SOUTHWESTERN
WISCONSIN EARLY THIS MORNING.
- MODERATE TO HIGH SWIM RISK MAY DEVELOP FOR LAKE MI BEACHES IN
SHEBOYGAN AND OZAUKEE COUNTIES TUESDAY AFTERNOON INTO TUESDAY
NIGHT.
- SHOWERS AND STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP AS WARMER, MORE
HUMID AIR MOVES IN TUESDAY INTO TUESDAY NIGHT. THESE STORMS
WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING HEAVY RAIN AND LIGHTNING. A FEW
MAY BECOME CAPABLE OF PRODUCING DAMAGING WINDS, BUT CONFIDENCE
IS NOT HIGH AT THIS TIME.
- NEXT CHANCES FOR ON-AND-OFF THUNDERSTORMS RETURN FRIDAY
THROUGH THE WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.
SHORT TERM
ISSUED 1213 AM CDT MON SEP 7 2026
TODAY AND TONIGHT:
PATCHY DENSE FOG IN LOW-LYING AREAS IS EXPECTED IN SOUTHWESTERN
WISCONSIN THROUGH SUNRISE, BURNING OFF SHORTLY THEREAFTER. LIGHT
AND VARIABLE WINDS WILL BECOME SOUTHEASTERLY AND STEADY AS LOW
PRESSURE PROPAGATES NORTHEASTWARD THROUGH THE NORTHERN PLAINS.
HIGH CLOUDS AND SOME DIURNAL CUMULUS WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES IN THE
UPPER 70S TO AROUND 80 DEGREES THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. HIGH CLOUDS
WILL LINGER THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS TONIGHT, WITH
SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS CONTINUING TO MIX THE BOUNDARY LAYER AND
KEEPING FOG FROM DEVELOPING. A FEW ISOLATED SHOWERS MAY DEVELOP IN
SOUTHWESTERN WISCONSIN BY EARLY TUESDAY MORNING.
MH
LONG TERM
ISSUED 1213 AM CDT MON SEP 7 2026
TUESDAY THROUGH MONDAY:
LOW PRESSURE DEEPENS IN THE CANADIAN PRAIRIES ON TUESDAY, WITH
BROAD, STRENGTHENING WAA IN ALL LEVELS. FRONTOGENESIS AT THE
LOW LEVELS WILL ALLOW FOR PRECIPITATION DEVELOPMENT ACROSS
SOUTHWESTERN TO CENTRAL WISCONSIN, SPREADING EASTWARD THROUGH
THE AFTERNOON. PWATS AROUND 2 INCHES COMBINED WITH MID-LEVEL
MUCAPE IN THE 400-700 J/KG RANGE AND A BROAD AREA OF LIFT, HEAVY
RAIN BECOMES A THREAT GOING INTO THE AFTERNOON AND OVERNIGHT
HOURS. WEST TO EAST BULK SHEAR OF 35 TO 40 KT AND 850 MB LLJ
NOSING INTO NORTHERN ILLINOIS OVERNIGHT MAY ALLOW FOR A PERIOD
OF STORM INTENSIFICATION. THE PRIMARY HAZARD LOOKS TO BE URBAN
AND SMALL STREAM FLOODING, BUT CANNOT RULE OUT BRIEF DOWNBURST
ACTIVITY DUE TO PRECIPITATION LOADING. SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS
GUSTING BETWEEN 20 AND 25 MPH ARE EXPECTED EVEN OUTSIDE OF
STORMS AS LOW PRESSURE CONTINUES TO DEEPEN. WITH GUSTY WINDS AND
BUILDING WAVES TUESDAY INTO TUESDAY NIGHT, A MODERATE TO HIGH
SWIM RISK WILL ALSO DEVELOP IN OZAUKEE AND SHEBOYGAN COUNTY LAKE
MICHIGAN BEACHES.
LOW PRESSURE LIFTS INTO THE HUDSON BAY WEDNESDAY MORNING, THE
LAST WAVES OF RAIN AND STORMS WILL PROGRESS SOUTHEASTWARD OUT OF
WISCONSIN. THE COLD FRONT WILL FINALLY WORK ITS WAY THROUGH
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON, BRINGING AN END TO ANY FURTHER THUNDERSTORM
ACTIVITY. NORTHWESTERLY WINDS DEVELOP AFTER STORMS EXIT, WITH
TEMPERATURES FALLING INTO THE LOW 70S QUICKLY AFTER THE FRONTAL
PASSAGE. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD THROUGH THE NORTHERN PLAINS INTO
THE CENTRAL PLAINS WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT,
BRINGING COOL AND DRY CONDITIONS WITH LOWS IN THE 50S WEDNESDAY
NIGHT AND HIGHS IN THE MID-70S THURSDAY. HIGH PRESSURE GRADUALLY
PROPAGATES EASTWARD THROUGH THE OHIO VALLEY THROUGH FRIDAY,
KEEPING CONDITIONS DRY AND HIGHS IN THE UPPER 70S.
AN ACTIVE PATTERN RETURNS INTO THE WEEKEND AS MULTIPLE SHORTWAVES
SWING SOUTHEASTWARD THROUGH SOUTHERN CANADA AND INTERACT WITH LEE
CYCLOGENESIS IN THE CENTRAL TO NORTHERN GREAT PLAINS. ON AND OFF
PERIODS OF THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED, WITH SOME POTENTIAL FOR
SEVERE WEATHER IF INGREDIENTS COME TOGETHER AT THE RIGHT TIME.
ACTIVE PATTERN CONTINUES INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.
MH
AVIATION
ISSUED 1213 AM CDT MON SEP 7 2026
VFR CEILINGS EXPECTED THROUGHOUT TODAY AND TONIGHT, WITH LOCAL
PATCHY FOG IN LOW-LYING AREAS EARLY THIS MORNING. MVFR
VISIBILITIES ARE EXPECTED, BUT A FEW AREAS COULD SEE VISIBILITY AS
LOW AS 1/2 SM AT TIMES. LIGHT AND VARIABLE TO CALM WINDS EXPECTED
THROUGH SUNRISE, WITH SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS DEVELOPING MID-MORNING
ONWARD AND CONTINUING OVERNIGHT. DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS,
DIURNAL CUMULUS AROUND 4000 FT ARE EXPECTED.
MH
MARINE
ISSUED 1213 AM CDT MON SEP 7 2026
HIGH PRESSURE AROUND 30.2 INCHES WILL ALLOW FOR LIGHT AND VARIABLE
WINDS THROUGH TONIGHT. MEANWHILE, LOW PRESSURE AROUND 29.8 INCHES
OVER THE NORTHERN HIGH PLAINS THIS MORNING WILL DEEPEN TO 29.5
INCHES AS IT LIFTS NORTHWARD THROUGH THE CANADIAN PRAIRIES INTO
TUESDAY MORNING. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR GRADUALLY INCREASING
SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS LATE TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY. GUSTS AROUND
30 KT ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE NORTHERN HALF TUESDAY AFTERNOON
THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT. GUSTY WINDS AND RISING WAVES MAY CREATE
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS IN THE NEARSHORE WATERS NORTH OF
MILWAUKEE IN SOUTHERN WISCONSIN. AS LOW PRESSURE ENTERS THE
HUDSON BAY TUESDAY NIGHT, WINDS SHIFT SOUTHWESTERLY, THEN
WESTERLY ON WEDNESDAY AS A COLD FRONT PUSHES SOUTHEASTWARD
THROUGH THE LAKE. WINDS BECOME NORTHWESTERLY BEHIND THE FRONT,
GRADUALLY WEAKENING THROUGH THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT. WINDS
SHIFT TO SOUTHERLY AGAIN AND INCREASE INTO FRIDAY AS LOW
PRESSURE DEVELOPS IN THE NORTHERN PLAINS.
MH
MKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
WI...NONE.
LM...NONE.
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