573
FXUS63 KMKX 080458
AFDMKX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MILWAUKEE/SULLIVAN WI
1158 PM CDT WED OCT 7 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- THERE IS A CHANCE (20 TO 50 PERCENT) FOR A PERIOD OF SHOWERS
FRIDAY. A THUNDERSTORM MAY OCCUR.
- HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO BE ABOVE SEASONAL NORMAL
VALUES INTO FRIDAY, AND WELL ABOVE NORMAL THIS WEEKEND.
SHORT TERM
ISSUED 1158 PM CDT WED OCT 7 2026
OVERNIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT:
HIGH PRESSURE WILL GRADUALLY SHIFT SOUTHEAST TOWARD THE AREA
OVERNIGHT INTO THURSDAY MORNING, THEN ACROSS THE AREA THURSDAY
AFTERNOON BEFORE SHIFTING SOUTHEAST THURSDAY NIGHT. THE HIGH
WILL BRING DRY CONDITIONS TO THE AREA. THERE SHOULD BE SOME
MIDDLE TO HIGH CLOUDS THAT SHIFT SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE AREA AT
TIMES DURING THIS PERIOD. LIGHT WEST NORTHWEST WINDS OVERNIGHT
WILL BE LIGHT TO MODEST ON THURSDAY, AND MAINLY CALM THURSDAY
NIGHT.
OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE MIDDLE TO UPPER 40S ARE EXPECTED TONIGHT
AND AGAIN THURSDAY NIGHT, THOUGH IT MAY GET COOLER IN AREAS THAT
REMAIN CLOUD FREE. THE CALM WINDS MAY ALLOW FOR SLIGHTLY COOLER
LOWS IN THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 40S THURSDAY NIGHT. HIGHS IN THE
MIDDLE TO UPPER 60S ARE ANTICIPATED THURSDAY.
WOOD
LONG TERM
ISSUED 1158 PM CDT WED OCT 7 2026
FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY:
MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW A SIGNAL FOR A PERIOD OF SHOWERS TO
MOVE ACROSS THE AREA FRIDAY, AS AN AREA OF FOCUSED WARM AIR
ADVECTION AND MOISTURE IN THE LOW LEVELS COMBINES WITH A
SOUTHWESTERLY LOW LEVEL JET NOSE POINTING INTO THE AREA. THE
SURFACE WARM FRONT ALSO SHIFTS NORTHEAST INTO THE AREA DURING
THIS PERIOD, WHICH MAY HELP WITH UPWARD VERTICAL MOTION.
FORECAST SOUNDINGS ARE TRENDING MORE MOIST FOR A TIME FRIDAY, AS
THESE FEATURES MOVE THROUGH. THEY SHOW WEAK INSTABILITY
DEVELOPING AS WELL, WITH A FEW HUNDRED J/KG OF ELEVATED CAPE,
SUGGESTING A FEW THUNDERSTORMS MAY BE POSSIBLE. MOST ENSEMBLE
MEMBERS HAVE LIGHT MEASURABLE RAINFALL DURING THIS TIME ACROSS
THE AREA. THUS, CONTINUED TO HAVE 20 TO 50 PERCENT CHANCES FOR
SHOWERS WEST TO EAST ACROSS THE AREA FRIDAY.
THE WARM FRONT WILL PUSH NORTH FRIDAY NIGHT, WITH GUSTY SOUTH
WINDS ON SATURDAY WITHIN A TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT. THIS SHOULD
BRING VERY WARM TEMPERATURES INTO THE AREA, WITH HIGHS POSSIBLY
REACHING AROUND 80 DEGREES OR INTO THE LOWER 80S. RECORD HIGHS
ARE 84 DEGREES FOR MILWAUKEE AND MADISON, SO THOSE MAY BE
APPROACHED.
AS THE 500 MB RIDGE AXIS SHIFTS EAST SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY,
ANY REMNANTS WITH THE TROPICAL CYCLONE SHOULD REMAIN SOUTHEAST
OF THE AREA, OTHER THAN SOME CLOUDS MOVING THROUGH. THE CLOUDS
MAY HOLD DOWN HIGH TEMPERATURES A BIT ON SUNDAY, ALONG WITH
SOME ONSHORE WINDS NEAR THE LAKE.
THERE STILL APPEARS TO BE A COLD FRONT THAT SHIFTS SOUTHEAST
THROUGH THE AREA LATER MONDAY OR MONDAY EVENING, WITH A 500 MB
VORTICITY MAXIMUM WITHIN NORTHWEST FLOW SHIFTING THROUGH THE
REGION TUESDAY. ENSEMBLE MEMBERS ARE FAIRLY WET MONDAY INTO
MONDAY NIGHT, SO KEPT 20 TO 50 PERCENT CHANCES FOR SHOWERS
GOING. HIGH PRESSURE BEHIND THIS SYSTEM WITH SOME COLD AIR
ADVECTION SHOULD BRING MORE SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES BY THE
MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.
WOOD
AVIATION
ISSUED 1158 PM CDT WED OCT 7 2026
HIGH PRESSURE WILL GRADUALLY SHIFT SOUTHEAST TOWARD THE AREA
OVERNIGHT INTO THURSDAY MORNING, THEN ACROSS THE AREA THURSDAY
AFTERNOON BEFORE SHIFTING SOUTHEAST THURSDAY NIGHT. THE HIGH
WILL BRING DRY CONDITIONS TO THE AREA. THERE SHOULD BE SOME
MIDDLE TO HIGH CLOUDS THAT SHIFT SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE AREA AT
TIMES DURING THIS PERIOD. LIGHT WEST NORTHWEST WINDS OVERNIGHT
WILL BE LIGHT TO MODEST ON THURSDAY, AND MAINLY CALM THURSDAY
NIGHT.
WOOD
MARINE
ISSUED 1158 PM CDT WED OCT 7 2026
WEST TO NORTHWEST WINDS WILL PERSIST THROUGH THURSDAY, AS HIGH
PRESSURE AROUND 30.1 INCHES PUSHES INTO THE REGION. WINDS WILL
BECOME SOUTHERLY ON FRIDAY, AS THE HIGH DEPARTS AND LOW PRESSURE
AROUND 29.2 INCHES DEVELOPS IN THE NORTHERN PLAINS. THE TIGHT
PRESSURE GRADIENT OVER LAKE MICHIGAN WILL PRODUCE BREEZY
SOUTHERLY WINDS UP TO 30 KNOTS FROM FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY
MORNING.
A FEW GALE FORCE GUSTS MAY OCCUR IN THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE
LAKE SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. IN ADDITION, WINDS AND
WAVES MAY REACH SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY LEVELS FRIDAY AFTERNOON
INTO EARLY SUNDAY, ESPECIALLY FOR AREAS NORTH OF PORT
WASHINGTON.
WINDS SHOULD REMAIN SOUTHERLY INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK, BEFORE A
COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH AND SHIFTS WINDS TO THE NORTH BEHIND
IT.
WOOD
MKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
WI...NONE.
LM...NONE.
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