461
FXUS63 KMKX 060410
AFDMKX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MILWAUKEE/SULLIVAN WI
1110 PM CDT MON OCT 5 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- NEAR AVERAGE EARLY AUTUMN TEMPERATURES THIS WEEK, WITH
PREDOMINANTLY DRY WEATHER.
- GALE WARNING IN EFFECT TUESDAY AFTERNOON INTO TUESDAY EVENING
FOR THE NORTHERN OPEN WATERS OF LAKE MICHIGAN, NORTH OF A PORT
WASHINGTON WI TO WHITEHALL MI LINE. SOUTHWEST GALES UP TO 40
KNOTS EXPECTED.
SHORT TERM
ISSUED 1110 PM CDT MON OCT 5 2026
TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT:
WE CONTINUE TO MONITOR ONGOING PRECIP IN NORTHERN WI TRACKING
EAST SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE STATE WITH ONLY A VERY MINOR CHANCE
THAT THIS CLIPS FAR NORTHEASTERN PORTIONS OF THE CWA. THIS COMES
ON THE BACKS OF A LLJ WITH SOME WAA AND INCREASED MOISTURE.
WHILE THIS FORCING WILL IN PART MOVE OVER THE AREA THE MOISTURE,
PARTICULARLY IN THE LOW LEVELS (850MB), WILL BE LACKLUSTER,
LIKELY PREVENTING ANY PRECIP FROM REACHING THE SURFACE EVEN IF
WE DID MANAGE SOME RADAR RETURNS OVER THE CWA.
INTO THE DAY TUESDAY EXPECT BUILDING LOW PRESSURE TO THE WEST TO
GRADUALLY INCREASE WINDS AS THE LOW IMPINGES ON THE HIGH TO THE
EAST INCREASING THE PRESSURE GRADIENT, BRINGING BREEZY SOUTH
WINDS TO THE AREA THROUGH THE DAY. THE FRONT WILL TRACK THROUGH
OVERNIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY WITH NO PRECIP EXPECTED GIVEN VERY DRY
COLUMN IN LARGE PART ACROSS SOUTHERN WI, THOUGH WE MAY MANAGE TO
TO BUILD A LITTLE CLOUD COVER WITH THE FRONTAL PASSAGE.
WEDNESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT THE SURFACE LOW PRESSURE WILL
GRADUALLY PUSH OUT ALLOWING FOR HIGHER PRESSURE TO BEGIN
BUILDING INTO THE REGION FRONT THE WEST, PARTICULARLY
OVERNIGHT.
KUROSKI
LONG TERM
ISSUED 1110 PM CDT MON OCT 5 2026
THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY:
ENSEMBLES GENERALLY SUGGEST THE QUIETER WEATHER PATTERN WILL
CONTINUE WITH HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING BACK INTO THE REGION
THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY. ALOFT, THINGS BECOME A BIT MORE ACTIVE
WITH SOME SHORTWAVE ACTIVITY SWINGING NEAR THE CWA LATE IN THE
WEEK BUT THE ISSUE IS THAT THERE REMAINS TOO MUCH DRY AIR TO
CAUSE MUCH OF ANY PRECIP CHANCES. MODELS SUGGEST A MILD CHANCE FOR
PRECIP WITH THE SHORTWAVE BUT WILL RELY LARGELY ON LOW TO
MIDLEVEL MOISTURE AND WAA, WHICH REMAINS UNCERTAIN. THE PATTERN
WILL SWITCH UP INTO THE WEEKEND LARGE SCALE RIDGING BUILDING
OVERHEAD BEHIND A TROUGH SWEEPING THROUGH FRIDAY WHILE THE
REMNANTS OF A TROPICAL CYCLONE MAY SWING UP FROM THE SOUTH.
MODELS GENERALLY SHOW LIMITED POTENTIAL FOR IT TO MAKE IT HERE
BUT THIS COULD AT LEAST INTRODUCE SOME INCREASED MOISTURE IN
PARTS OF THE ATMOSPHERE LATER SUNDAY. OVERALL THE PATTERN IS
SUGGESTIVE OF LARGELY DRY CONDITIONS UNTIL AT LEAST EARLY NEXT
WEEK.
KUROSKI
AVIATION
ISSUED 1110 PM CDT MON OCT 5 2026
QUIET TAF CONDITIONS EXPECTED WITH SOME PATCHY MIDLEVEL CIGS
TONIGHT BUT OTHERWISE REMAINING LARGELY CLEAR. LOWER PRESSURE
WILL MOVE IN TUESDAY BRINGING BREEZY SOUTH WINDS.
KUROSKI
MARINE
ISSUED 1110 PM CDT MON OCT 5 2026
WINDS THEN TURN SOUTH INTO TONIGHT AS LOW PRESSURE OF 29.4 INCHES
WILL BUILD TOWARD THE HUDSON BAY TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY. AHEAD
OF THIS LOW, SOUTH SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL INCREASE TUESDAY AFTERNOON
AND BECOME GUSTY. A GALE WARNING IS IN EFFECT TUESDAY AFTERNOON
AND EVENING FOR THE NORTH HALF OF THE LAKE, NORTH OF A PORT
WASHINGTON WI TO WHITEHALL MI LINE, WITH SOUTHWEST GALES TO 40 KT
EXPECTED. THE LOW WILL PULL A COLD FRONT ACROSS THE WATERS LATE
TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY SHIFTING WINDS TO THE WEST-
NORTHWEST.
KUROSKI
MKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
WI...NONE.
LM...GALE WARNING...LMZ261-LMZ362-LMZ364-LMZ366-LMZ563-LMZ565-
LMZ567-LMZ669-LMZ868-LMZ870...1 PM TUESDAY TO 10 PM
TUESDAY.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY...LMZ643-LMZ644...7 AM TUESDAY TO 10 PM
TUESDAY.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY...LMZ645-LMZ646...1 PM TUESDAY TO 7 PM
TUESDAY.
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