479
FXUS63 KMKX 110556
AFDMKX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MILWAUKEE/SULLIVAN WI
1256 AM CDT THU JUN 11 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- A ROUND OR TWO OF SEVERE STORMS ARE EXPECTED FROM MID
AFTERNOON INTO THE EARLY EVENING. SIGNIFICANT SEVERE STORMS
ARE POSSIBLE DURING THIS TIME. ISOLATED TORNADOES, DAMAGING
WINDS, AND LARGE HAIL ARE THE MAIN CONCERNS. THERE IS A SMALL
POTENTIAL FOR FLASH FLOODING ESPECIALLY IN URBAN AREAS.
SHORT TERM
ISSUED 1256 AM CDT WED JUN 10 2026
TODAY AND TONIGHT:
THE THUNDERSTORM EAST OF MONROE WILL DRIFT INTO IL EARLY THIS
MORNING WITH ONLY SLIGHT CHANCES FOR REDEVELOPMENT THROUGH
08-09Z. ALTHOUGH THE COLD FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO DISSIPATE WEST
OF THE MS RIVER, DRIER AIR AT 925-850 MB ON WLY WINDS WILL
CONTRIBUTE TO THE ENDING OF THE SHOWERS AND STORMS EARLY THIS
MORNING. AREAS OF LIGHT FOG AND LOW STRATUS MAY FORM EARLY THIS
MORNING GIVEN THE MOIST CONDITIONS AND WEAKENING SFC WINDS.
THE POTENTIAL FOR SIGNIFICANT SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS STILL LOOKS
FAIRLY PROBABLE TODAY AS LOW PRESSURE AND A VORTICITY MAXIMUM
TRACKS NEWD FROM KS THIS MORNING REACHING NE IA BY 18Z THEN INTO
EAST CENTRAL WI BY 00Z FRI. A STRONG SSWLY LOW LEVEL JET OF 50
KT WILL QUICKLY SURGE NWD AHEAD OF THE LOW BRINGING A ROUND OF
LOW TO MID LEVEL WARM, MOIST ADVECTION AND SHOWERS AND STORMS
TO SRN WI FROM LATE MORNING INTO THE EARLY AFTERNOON. THESE
STORMS WILL LIKELY BE ELEVATED WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR LARGE
HAIL. AS THE SFC LOW TRACKS FROM NE IA TO EAST CENTRAL WI
ACCOMPANIED BY THE TRAILING COLD FRONT, HIGH THETAE AIR WILL
SURGE NORTH ACROSS SRN WI WITH A MLCAPE GRADIENT FROM 1000-1500
J/KG OVER CENTRAL WI TO 2500-3000 J/KG TOWARD THE IL BORDER.
STRONG DEEP LAYER AND LOW LEVEL SHEAR WILL BE IN PLACE AS SHOWN
BY LARGE, CURVED HODOGRAPHS. CAMS ARE NOT SURPRISINGLY
HIGHLIGHTING SUPERCELLS VIA UPDRAFT HELICITY, BUT ALSO LINE
SEGMENTS WITH A QLCS AS THE PREDOMINANT MODE. ISOLATED
TORNADOES, DAMAGING WINDS, AND LARGE HAIL ARE ALL PROBABLE
INCLUDING SOME SIGNIFICANT OCCURRENCES OF EACH POSSIBLE.
WLY WINDS AND COLD ADVECTION WILL THEN PREVAIL IN THE WAKE OF
THE STORMS THIS EVENING. TEMPS ARE EXPECTED TO DROP INTO THE 50S
BY SUNRISE FRI.
GEHRING
LONG TERM
ISSUED 1256 AM CDT WED JUN 10 2026
FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY:
LIGHT TO MODEST WLY SURFACE WINDS, DRY WEATHER, AND NEAR NORMAL
TEMPS WILL RETURN FOR FRIDAY IN THE WAKE OF A COLD FRONT THU NT.
OTHERWISE ZONAL FLOW WILL PREVAIL INTO THE WEEKEND. A WEAK
TROUGH IN THE LOW TO MID LEVELS WILL APPROACH FROM THE WEST SAT
AFTERNOON AND PASS SAT NT. WEAK LOW TO MID LEVEL WARM, MOIST
ADVECTION, BUT SLIGHTLY STRONGER FRONTOGENESIS IN THAT LAYER
WILL SUPPORT 60-80 PERCENT CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.
A LARGER SCALE UPPER TROUGH WILL THEN BECOME ESTABLISHED OVER
ONTARIO EARLY NEXT WEEK INCLUDING WEAK SHORTWAVE TROUGHS
ROTATING ACROSS THE REGION. THIS WILL BRING BELOW NORMAL TEMPS
TO SRN WI, AND SHOWER CHANCES OF 20-40 PERCENT AT TIMES THROUGH
WED.
GEHRING
AVIATION
ISSUED 1256 AM CDT WED JUN 10 2026
AREAS OF MVFR CIGS AND VSBYS (DUE TO BR) ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP
EARLY THIS MORNING THEN DISSIPATE SHORTLY AFTER SUNRISE.
ALTHOUGH, AREAS OF MVFR CIGS WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE THROUGH THE
DAY INTO THE EARLY EVENING DUE TO A MOIST AND UNSTABLE AIRMASS
AND NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND STORMS. BREEZY SLY WINDS WILL DEVELOP
THIS AFTERNOON THEN SHIFT WLY WITH A COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE FROM
LATE AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING.
GEHRING
MARINE
ISSUED 1256 AM CDT WED JUN 10 2026
AREAS OF DENSE FOG WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE TODAY DUE TO A MOIST
FLOW OVER THE RELATIVELY COLD WATERS OF THE LAKE. OTHERWISE MODEST
SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST WINDS CAN BE EXPECTED THIS MORNING BUT WILL
BECOME BREEZY SOUTH TO SOUTHEASTERLY THIS AFTERNOON. THIS WILL
OCCUR AS LOW PRESSURE AROUND 29.5 INCHES MOVES FROM EASTERN IOWA
TO CENTRAL LAKE MICHIGAN BY EARLY THIS EVENING, THEN NORTHEAST
INTO ONTARIO BY EARLY FRIDAY MORNING. WINDS WILL BECOME WESTERLY
AND BREEZY BEHIND THE LOW PRESSURE AREA THIS EVENING INTO THE
OVERNIGHT. MODEST TO BREEZY SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL FOLLOW FOR
FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY. NUMEROUS THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED
THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING AND MAY BECOME SEVERE.
A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY MAY BE NEEDED FROM SHEBOYGAN TO WINTHROP
HARBOR LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND INTO THE LATE NIGHT AS BREEZY
SOUTH WINDS DEVELOP AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT THEN SHIFT WLY WITH
THE FRONTAL PASSAGE. WAVES OF 3 TO 5 FEET ARE EXPECTED NORTH OF
NORTH POINT LIGHTHOUSE.
GEHRING
MKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
WI...NONE.
LM...NONE.
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