564
FXUS63 KMKX 101719
AFDMKX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MILWAUKEE/SULLIVAN WI
1219 PM CDT WED JUN 10 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- SEVERE WEATHER POTENTIAL INCREASING ACROSS ALL OF SOUTHERN
WISCONSIN THIS AFTERNOON (PEAK 1-7 PM). ALL SEVERE WEATHER
HAZARDS ARE POSSIBLE, WITH SOME POTENTIAL FOR SIGNIFICANT
DAMAGING WIND GUSTS (60-80 MPH). MOVE INDOORS TO SAFE SHELTER
IMMEDIATELY IF A WARNING IS ISSUED FOR YOUR AREA THIS
AFTERNOON.
- A HIGH SWIM RISK IS IN EFFECT FROM MID AFTERNOON THROUGH LATE
TONIGHT. HIGH WAVES AND DANGEROUS CURRENTS WILL BE LIKELY,
AND SWIMMING IS NOT ADVISED AT SHEBOYGAN AND OZAUKEE BEACHES.
- MULTIPLE ROUNDS OF STORMS CONTINUE TONIGHT AND THURSDAY.
SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE LIKELY AT TIMES.
- WARM AND HUMID CONDITIONS EXPECTED TODAY AND THURSDAY.
SHORT TERM
ISSUED 1215 PM CDT WED JUN 10 2026
TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT:
..SEVERE WEATHER POTENTIAL INCREASING THIS AFTERNOON
RAPID THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT IS ONGOING OVER EASTERN IOWA THIS
AFTERNOON BENEATH AN APPROACHING MCV. THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT
IS ONGOING WITHIN A VERY UNSTABLE ENVIRONMENT WITH SUFFICIENT
OVERLAPPING EFFECTIVE SHEAR VALUES. VERY UNSTABLE CONDITIONS ARE
IN PLACE DOWNSTREAM ACROSS SOUTHERN WISCONSIN, WHERE SURFACE
TEMPERATURES HAVE SOARED INTO THE MID-UPPER 80S WITH DEW POINTS
IN THE 70S. THE UNSTABLE CONDITIONS WILL ALLOW FOR CONTINUATION
OF THE IOWA STORMS INTO SOUTHERN WISCONSIN THROUGH THE AFTERNOON
HOURS, WITH INCREASING EFFECTIVE SHEAR VALUES ALLOWING FOR
CONTINUED MAINTENANCE OF STORMS AT SEVERE LEVELS. A SEVERE
THUNDERSTORM WATCH IS NOW IN EFFECT FOR ALL OF SOUTHERN
WISCONSIN UNTIL 7 PM AHEAD OF THIS APPROACHING ACTIVITY.
A LINEAR CONVECTIVE MODE AFFILIATED WITH THE ENCROACHING STORMS
WILL SUPPORT DAMAGING STRAIGHT LINE WINDS AS THE PREDOMINANT
SEVERE WEATHER HAZARD THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON. SOME WIND GUSTS
COULD BE SIGNIFICANT (70+ MPH) GIVEN AN UNSTABLE BOUNDARY LAYER
SUSCEPTIBLE TO DOWNWARD TRANSFERS OF HIGHER MOMENTUM FROM ALOFT.
LINE-EMBEDDED TORNADOES ARE ALSO POSSIBLE, PARTICULARLY IN
NORTHEASTERLY LINE SURGES & ANY MERGERS WITH ANY STORM
DEVELOPMENT MANAGING TO OCCUR AHEAD OF THE LINE. TORRENTIAL
DOWNPOURS WILL ALSO ACCOMPANY STORMS, THOUGH PROGRESSIVE STORM
MOTIONS SHOULD LIMIT WIDESPREAD FLOODING POTENTIAL IN THIS
INITIAL ROUND OF STORMS. MOVE INDOORS AND TO IMMEDIATE SAFE
SHELTER IF A WARNING IS ISSUED FOR YOUR AREA THIS AFTERNOON.
SECOND DISTURBANCE IS THEN FORECAST TO PIVOT THROUGH THE AREA
THIS EVENING, BRINGING ADDITIONAL CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL ALONG
WITH IT. PEAK POTENTIAL FOR ANY STORM REDEVELOPMENT WOULD BE
BETWEEN 7 PM AND 1 AM. COVERAGE & SEVERITY OF STORMS WILL BE
HEAVILY INFLUENCED BY ACTIVITY THIS AFTERNOON, WITH CURRENT
TRENDS SUGGESTING THAT AVAILABLE INSTABILITY WILL BE HEAVILY
DEPLETED, LEAVING THE INTENSITY AND COVERAGE OF STORMS IN
QUESTION. WILL BE MONITORING TRENDS CLOSELY THROUGH THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING. REGARDLESS OF SEVERITY LEVELS, ANY
REDEVELOPING STORMS WOULD BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING ADDITIONAL
TORRENTIAL DOWNPOURS, WHICH COULD LEAD TO POCKETS OF FLOODING IN
ANY LOCATIONS THAT ARE HIT THIS AFTERNOON. GIVEN LOWER
CONFIDENCE IN PREFERRED TRAINING CORRIDORS, HAVE HELD OFF ON ANY
FLOOD WATCHES IN THIS FORECAST, BUT WILL BE WATCHING TRENDS
CLOSELY THROUGH THIS EVENING/TONIGHT.
WILL THEN BE TURNING ATTENTION TO TOMORROW'S SEVERE POTENTIAL
FOLLOWING THE CONCLUSION OF THIS EVENING'S ACTIVITY. AS A BOTTOM
LINE, ANOTHER ROUND OF WIDESPREAD SEVERE STORM DEVELOPMENT IS
ANTICIPATED, WITH THE MOST FAVORED LOCATIONS FOR STORMS BEING
ALONG AND SOUTH OF A BOUNDARY LAID DOWN BY MORNING
SHOWERS/STORMS. PEAK TIMING FOR STORMS WILL BE BETWEEN 2 TO 8
PM. ALL SEVERE HAZARDS WILL BE POSSIBLE. WILL BE MONITORING
TRENDS AND PROVIDING ADDITIONAL DETAILS THROUGH THIS EVENING AND
TONIGHT. STAY TUNED TO THE FORECAST.
QUIGLEY
LONG TERM
ISSUED 1220 PM CDT WED JUN 10 2026
FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY:
A SHORTWAVE TROUGH SITTING OVER WI AND A SURFACE LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM ARE EXPECTED TO MOVE NORTHEAST OVER MICHIGAN AND ONTARIO,
BRINGING A SURFACE HIGH TO SOUTHERN WI LATE FRIDAY INTO EARLY
SATURDAY MORNING. DRIER CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED FRIDAY WITH TEMPERATURES
DOWN INTO THE 70S AND HUMIDITY SIGNIFICANTLY DECREASING.
THROUGHOUT SATURDAY, THE POTENTIAL FOR PRECIPITATION INCREASES IN
THE AFTERNOON (40-50%) INTO THE EVENING (50-60%) AS THE SHORTWAVE
TROUGH SETTLES INTO WI ALONGSIDE A COLD FRONT. PRECIPITABLE WATER
VALUES OF AROUND 1.3" INCREASE THIS POTENTIAL. TEMPERATURES ARE
EXPECTED TO INCREASE ALONGSIDE HUMIDITY THROUGHOUT THE DAY INTO
THE EVENING.
PRIMARILY DRY AND COOLER CONDITIONS SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY AS
SURFACE PRESSURE INCREASES ACROSS THE REGION AND THE SHORTWAVE
TROUGH BEGINS TO MOVE TO THE EAST. SHOWER/STORM CHANCES INCREASE
INTO TUESDAY (20-30%) AS THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH BEGINS TO SINK BACK
INTO WI AND A SURFACE LOW ENTERS FROM THE WEST. A SIMILAR CHANCE
FOR PRECIPITATION FOR LATER WEDNESDAY (20-30%) AS THE LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM MOVES WEST, WITH AN APPROACHING HIGH OVER THE PLAINS.
ZAWLOCKI
AVIATION
ISSUED 1220 PM CDT WED JUN 10 2026
STRONG TO SEVERE STORM POTENTIAL OVER SOUTHERN WI MOVING FROM THE
SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON INTO EARLY EVENING
COULD PRODUCE MANY HAZARDS, INCLUDING LARGE HAIL, DAMAGING WINDS
(GUSTS UP TO 80 MPH), AND TORNADOES. THERE IS A CONTINUED CHANCE
FOR SHOWERS/STORMS INTO WEDNESDAY EVENING, WITH THE PRIMARY THREAT
BECOMING HEAVY RAINFALL. VFR CONDITIONS ACROSS SOUTHERN WI ONCE
THE STORMS PASS WEDNESDAY EVENING, SHIFTING TO MVFR OVERNIGHT
WITH SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS ACROSS THE REGION.
THE POTENTIAL FOR PRECIPITATION DECREASES OVERNIGHT WEDNESDAY
INTO EARLY THURSDAY, BRINGING THE POTENTIAL FOR FOG ACROSS
SOUTHERN WI, PRIMARILY OVER THE NORTHERN HALF OF LAKE MICHIGAN.
IFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WITH WINDS SHIFTING SOUTHEASTERLY
THURSDAY MORNING AHEAD OF SHOWERS/STORMS, WITH POTENTIAL FOR
GUSTY CONDITIONS. IFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THURSDAY AFTERNOON WITH
THE POTENTIAL FOR SHOWERS/STORMS, WITH SOME BECOMING SEVERE.
ZAWLOCKI
MARINE
ISSUED 1220 PM CDT WED JUN 10 2026
SHOWERS/STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO MOVE EAST OVER LAKE MICHIGAN
WEDNESDAY NIGHT, WITH A HIGH POTENTIAL FOR PRECIPITATION IN THE
SOUTHERN HALF LATE WEDNESDAY. INCREASING FOG POTENTIAL OVER THE
NORTHERN HALF OF LAKE MICHIGAN WEDNESDAY NIGHT, WITH INCREASING
POTENTIAL OVER THE ENTIRE LAKE EARLY THURSDAY. CONTINUED
SOUTHERLY WINDS ACROSS LAKE MICHIGAN WEDNESDAY NIGHT WITH
POTENTIAL FOR GUSTY CONDITIONS.
A COLD FRONT/LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO MOVE IN THURSDAY
AFTERNOON (29.76 INCHES), INCREASING THE POTENTIAL FOR
PRECIPITATION THURSDAY, WITH THE CHANCE OF SOME STORMS BECOMING
SEVERE. WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO SHIFT SOUTHEASTERLY AHEAD OF
PRECIPITATION, THEN TO WESTERLY FRIDAY.
ZAWLOCKI
MKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
WI...BEACH HAZARDS STATEMENT...WIZ052-WIZ060...4 PM WEDNESDAY TO 4
AM THURSDAY.
LM...DENSE FOG ADVISORY...LMZ261-LMZ362-LMZ364-LMZ366-LMZ563-LMZ565-
LMZ567-LMZ868 UNTIL 7 PM WEDNESDAY.
DENSE FOG ADVISORY...LMZ643-LMZ644-LMZ645 UNTIL 1 PM WEDNESDAY.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY...LMZ643-LMZ644...4 PM WEDNESDAY TO 1 AM
THURSDAY.
DENSE FOG ADVISORY...LMZ669-LMZ671-LMZ673-LMZ870-LMZ872-LMZ874
UNTIL 2 PM WEDNESDAY.
VISIT US AT WEATHER.GOV/MILWAUKEE
FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK, X, AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSMILWAUKEE
WWW.X.COM/NWSMILWAUKEE
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSMILWAUKEE
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.
Main Text Page