120
FXUS63 KMKX 201150
AFDMKX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MILWAUKEE/SULLIVAN WI
650 AM CDT FRI MAR 20 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- WARMER TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED BY SATURDAY.
- NEXT CHANCES (10-25%) FOR PRECIPITATION MAINLY SATURDAY NIGHT
INTO SUNDAY.
UPDATE
ISSUED 650 AM CDT FRI MAR 20 2026
WAA IS WELL UNDERWAY ACROSS SOUTHERN WISCONSIN THIS MORNING.
BREEZY SOUTHWEST WINDS AROUND 10 TO 20 MPH HAVE KEPT
TEMPERATURES RISING SINCE ROUGHLY MIDNIGHT FOR THE ENTIRE AREA.
SUNRISE OR JUST THERE AFTER IS NORMALLY THE COLDEST POINT OF THE
DAY AND RIGHT NOW WE ARE SOLIDLY IN THE UPPER 40S TO LOW 50S IN
MAY LOCATIONS. THE LAKESHORE AND THOSE WITH A DEEP SNOW PACK
WILL BE THE COLDEST TODAY. TEMPERATURES HAVE BEEN INCREASED THIS
MORNING AS THE STRONG WAA BRINGS TEMPERATURES VERY CLOSE TO THE
EXPECTED HIGH FROM THE MIDNIGHT FORECAST. TEMPERATURES MAY TAKE
A SLIGHT HIT LATER THIS MORNING INTO THE EARLY AFTERNOON AS A
COLD FRONT PASSES. THAT COLD FRONT IS CURRENTLY UP IN
NORTHWESTERN WISCONSIN AND IS SLOWLY MOVING SOUTHEAST. OTHERWISE
NO MAJOR CHANGES TO THE FORECAST
PATTERSON
SHORT TERM
ISSUED 1210 AM CDT FRI MAR 20 2026
OVERNIGHT THROUGH MONDAY:
MIDDLE TO HIGH CLOUDS SHOULD CONTINUE TO PUSH SOUTHEASTWARD
THROUGH THE AREA OVERNIGHT INTO FRIDAY MORNING. PATCHY FOG
CONTINUES FOR EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE AREA AS WELL, AND MAY
DEVELOP ACROSS AREAS NORTH OF MADISON. THERE MAY BE SOME DENSE
FOG IN LOCALIZED OR LOW LYING AREAS INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS.
THE FOG SHOULD LINGER INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS, UNTIL SOUTH TO
SOUTHWEST WINDS DEVELOP AROUND 09Z FRIDAY AND COMBINE WITH THE
CLOUDS TO HELP GRADUALLY DISSIPATE THE FOG. THERE IS SOME
UNCERTAINTY WITH THE FOG COMPLETELY DISSIPATING, SO TRENDS WILL
NEED TO BE MONITORED OVERNIGHT.
AN AREA OF LOW STRATUS CLOUDS SHOULD PUSH SOUTHWARD INTO THE
AREA FRIDAY AFTERNOON. THIS IS DESPITE HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE
REGION KEEPING WINDS FAIRLY LIGHT. THIS LOW CLOUD DECK MAY
LINGER INTO FRIDAY NIGHT, THOUGH CONFIDENCE IS LOW AT THIS TIME
WITH HOW LONG THIS LOW CLOUD DECK MAY LINGER.
TEMPERATURES FRIDAY WILL DEPEND ON HOW SOON THE LOW CLOUDS MOVE
IN, AND SHOULD VARY QUITE A BIT FROM WEST TO NORTHEAST PARTS OF
THE AREA. FOR NOW, HAVE HIGHS IN THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 60S TOWARD
DODGEVILLE AND DARLINGTON, AND MIDDLE 40S TOWARD FOND DU LAC
AND SHEBOYGAN, AND 50S ELSEWHERE. CONFIDENCE IN THE TEMPERATURE
FORECAST IS LOW AT THIS TIME.
FOR NOW, KEPT THE FORECAST MOSTLY CLOUDY FOR FRIDAY NIGHT WITH
THE LOW CLOUDS LINGERING, AND FINALLY PUSH THEM NORTHEAST OF THE
AREA SATURDAY. WARM AIR ADVECTION ON INCREASING SOUTH TO
SOUTHWEST WINDS SATURDAY SHOULD BRING WARMER TEMPERATURES INTO
THE AREA. HIGHS MAY REACH INTO THE 60S OVER MOST OF THE AREA,
PERHAPS REACHING 70 DEGREES OR MORE WEST OF MADISON.
TEMPERATURES MAY BE IN THE 40S TO AROUND 50 TOWARD SHEBOYGAN
AND PORT WASHINGTON, WHERE WINDS MAY REMAIN ONSHORE.
MODELS AND ENSEMBLES ARE TRENDING SOUTHWARD SOMEWHAT WITH THE
SURFACE LOW TRACK FOR SUNDAY, TAKING IT ACROSS CENTRAL ILLINOIS
INTO INDIANA. AS THE WARM FRONT DEVELOPS SOUTH OF THE AREA,
WINDS SHOULD SHIFT TO THE NORTH AND NORTHEAST SATURDAY NIGHT
INTO SUNDAY, WITH COLD AIR ADVECTION BRINING COOLER
TEMPERATURES. THERE MAY BE SOME LOW CLOUDS THAT MOVE INTO THE
AREA AS WELL FROM THE NORTH. THERE IS SOME SURFACE TO 850 MB AND
850 MB TO 700 MB FRONTOGENESIS RESPONSE THAT SHIFTS SOUTHWARD
THROUGH THE AREA SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY.
FORECAST SOUNDINGS ARE RATHER MIXED WITH THE AMOUNT OF DEEP
MOISTURE AVAILABLE DURING THIS TIME, WITH GENERALLY LIGHT QPF
VALUES SHOWN IN ENSEMBLE MEMBERS. THE PROBABILITY OF MEASURABLE
PRECIPITATION DURING THAT TIME VARIES AS WELL, WITH NORTHEAST
AREAS GENERALLY HAVING THE HIGHER PROBABILITIES. TEMPERATURES
SHOULD BE WARM ENOUGH FOR RAIN DURING THIS TIME.
FOR NOW, WILL LEAVE THE NBM POPS OF 20 TO 30 PERCENT GOING FOR
LATER SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY MORNING, AND WAIT AND SEE HOW
THE MOISTURE PROFILES EVOLVE WITH LATER MODEL/ENSEMBLE RUNS.
HIGH PRESSURE MOVING INTO THE REGION SHOULD BRING QUIET WEATHER
BACK TO THE AREA FOR SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY. TEMPERATURES
SHOULD BE NEAR NORMAL VALUES.
WOOD
LONG TERM
ISSUED 1210 AM CDT FRI MAR 20 2026
MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY:
SYNOPSIS: LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE FROM THE CANADIAN PRAIRIES
INTO ONTARIO MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY, DRAGGING A COLD FRONT
ACROSS SOUTHERN WISCONSIN AT SOME POINT TUESDAY MORNING OR
AFTERNOON. WITH DRY ANTECEDENT AIR IN PLACE AHEAD OF THE FRONT,
AND MARGINAL AT BEST MOISTURE RETURN TO THE ENCROACHING FRONT,
CURRENT EXPECTATIONS ARE FOR A DRY FRONTAL PASSAGE. WITH A
QUICK RETURN OF SOUTH-SOUTHEAST WINDS WEDNESDAY, NO MAJOR COOL
DOWN IS EXPECTED IN THE WAKE OF THE TUESDAY FRONTAL PASSAGE.
A MORE EXPANSIVE AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL DEVELOP OVER THE
NORTHERN PLAINS WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING, ULTIMATELY
MOVING INTO EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE CONTINENT THURSDAY INTO
THURSDAY NIGHT. THE LOW PROGRESSION WILL ALLOW ANOTHER COLD
FRONT TO CROSS THE REGION AT SOME POINT DURING THE DAY ON
THURSDAY, WITH SPREAD REGARDING THE PRECISE TIMING OF THE
FRONTAL PASSAGE STILL APPARENT IN GLOBAL ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE. WITH
BETTER MOISTURE RETURN AHEAD OF THIS SECOND SURFACE FRONT,
ANTICIPATE THAT PRECIP WILL RETURN TO THE FORECAST OVER AT LEAST
PARTS OF SOUTHERN WISCONSIN ON THURSDAY.
TUESDAY: WHILE CURRENTLY EXPECTED TO BE A DRY FRONTAL PASSAGE,
WILL BE MONITORING THE EVOLUTION OF PRECIP FORECASTS IN COMING
FORECAST UPDATES. PRECIP-FREE FORECAST IS BEING DRIVEN BY A
LOOSE CONSENSUS OF SOLUTIONS AMONGST CANADIAN AND ECMWF
GUIDANCE, WHICH SUGGEST THAT CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN TOO DRY FOR
PRECIP AS THE FRONT IS PASSING THROUGH. THERE HAS BEEN RUN TO
RUN CONSISTENCY, HOWEVER, FOR BETTER MOISTURE RETURN AND SOME
LIGHT PRECIP POTENTIAL IN FORECASTS FROM THE GEFS. IN THE EVENT
PRECIP PROBABILITIES INCREASE IN LATER UPDATES, IT WOULD BE DUE
TO THE SCENARIO DEPICTED IN THE GEFS BECOMING FAVORED ACROSS THE
ENTIRE GUIDANCE SUITE.
THURSDAY: LOOKING AT BETTER PRECIP POTENTIAL OVER AT LEAST
PARTS OF SOUTHERN WISCONSIN AS A SECOND COLD FRONT MOVES
THROUGH. CURRENT TEMPERATURE FORECASTS SUGGEST THAT PRECIP WOULD
FALL AS ALL RAIN, THOUGH TRENDS WILL NEED TO BE MONITORED OVER
COMING UPDATES.
QUIGLEY
AVIATION
ISSUED 650 AM CDT FRI MAR 20 2026
VFR TO IFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD. CEILINGS
AND VISIBILITIES WILL REMAIN VFR THROUGH THIS EVENING BEFORE
SOME LOWER CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES MOVE IN. MID TO HIGH LEVEL
CLOUDS WILL CONTINUE TO PUSH SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE STATE TODAY.
THIS CLOUD DECK WILL BECOME SCATTERED TO FEW AT TIMES THIS
AFTERNOON, BUT THAT SHOULD FILL IN AGAIN WITH TIME.
THIS EVENING INTO TONIGHT LOW STRATUS RETURNS AND SO DOES THE
POTENTIAL FOR FOG. THE STRATUS DECK IS EXPECTED TO BE AROUND 1-2
KFT. THERE WILL BE A PERIOD WHERE WINDS BECOME LIGHT AND
VARIABLE AS HIGH PRESSURE MOVES THROUGH WISCONSIN. AS SNOW MELTS
TODAY THERE WILL BE AMPLE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE TO PRODUCE FOG.
CONFIDENCE IS LOW ON HOW DENSE OR WIDESPREAD THIS FOG COULD BE.
THIS LOW STRATUS AND FOG WILL BE THE ONLY POTENTIAL FOR IFR
CONDITIONS.
LOW LEVEL WINDS SHEAR CONDITIONS PERSIST HERE EARLY THIS
MORNING WITH SOUTHWEST TO WEST SOUTHWEST WINDS AROUND 40 KNOTS
AT 2000 FEET AGL. THIS LLWS IS EXPECTED TO END AROUND MID TO
LATE MORNING AS WINDS EASE AND THE COLD FRONT TO OUR NORTH MOVES
THROUGH. SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL SHIFT TO NORTHWESTERLY BEHIND THE
COLD FRONT MID TO LATE MORNING. WINDS WILL DIMINISH TONIGHT AND
BECOME LIGHT AND VARIABLE. SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST WINDS ARE EXPECTED
SATURDAY BEHIND THE EXITING HIGH.
PATTERSON
MARINE
ISSUED 1210 AM CDT FRI MAR 20 2026
SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP OVERNIGHT, AS
LOW PRESSURE AROUND 29.7 INCHES PROGRESSES SOUTHEAST INTO
NORTHERN LOWER MICHIGAN. WINDS WILL SHIFT TO NORTHWEST TO NORTH
FRIDAY MORNING, AS A COLD FRONT SHIFTS SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE
LAKE. WINDS BECOME LIGHT FRIDAY NIGHT, AS HIGH PRESSURE AROUND
30.3 INCHES BUILDS INTO ONTARIO.
LOW PRESSURE AROUND 29.5 INCHES DEVELOPS IN THE LEE OF THE
WYOMING ROCKIES SATURDAY MORNING, SHIFTING WINDS SOUTH. THE LOW
SHOULD MOVE SOUTHEASTWARD SATURDAY NIGHT, ALLOWING WINDS TO
INCREASE AND SHIFT TO THE NORTH AND NORTHEAST ACROSS THE
NORTHERN HALF OF THE LAKE.
THE LOW SHOULD MOVE ACROSS CENTRAL ILLINOIS INTO INDIANA
SUNDAY, AS IT DEEPENS TO AROUND 29.4 INCHES. THIS SHOULD LEAD TO
NORTHERLY WINDS BACKING TO NORTHWESTERLY SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY
NIGHT ACROSS THE LAKE. A FEW GALES ARE POSSIBLE DURING THIS
TIMEFRAME, MAINLY OVER SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE LAKE. A SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORY MAY BE NEEDED SUNDAY INTO MONDAY FOR THE
NEARSHORE WATERS, FOR GUSTY WINDS AND BUILDING WAVES.
HIGH PRESSURE AROUND 30.5 INCHES SHOULD THEN BRING DECREASING
WINDS FOR MONDAY.
WOOD
MKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
WI...NONE.
LM...NONE.
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