236
FXUS63 KMKX 100943
AFDMKX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MILWAUKEE/SULLIVAN WI
443 AM CDT SAT OCT 10 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE WELL ABOVE NORMAL INTO MONDAY.
- NEXT CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPS LATER
MONDAY INTO MONDAY NIGHT.
- MORE ACTIVE WEATHER POSSIBLE LATER NEXT WEEK, THOUGH SOME
UNCERTAINTY REMAINS. COOLER TEMPERATURES MAY MOVE IN BY NEXT
WEEKEND.
UPDATE
ISSUED 445 AM CDT SAT OCT 10 2026
LOW PRESSURE IS MOVING INTO WESTERN NORTH DAKOTA EARLY THIS
MORNING. A DIFFUSE WARM FRONT EXTENDS EAST-SOUTHEAST OF THE
LOW/TOWARD THE GENERAL SOUTHERN WISCONSIN VICINITY, WITH SOUTHWESTERLY
WINDS BECOMING ESTABLISHED IN ITS WAKE. CONTINUED EAST-
NORTHEAST PROGRESS OF THE SURFACE LOW WILL PULL THE WARM FRONT
TOWARD THE U.P. OF MICHIGAN TODAY, ALLOWING FOR WARM ADVECTION
TO ESTABLISH ACROSS ALL OF SOUTHERN WISCONSIN. THUS CONTINUE TO
ANTICIPATE WELL-ABOVE NORMAL HIGH TEMPERATURES AREAWIDE, WITH
MOST LOCATIONS AWAY FROM THE IMMEDIATE LAKE MICHIGAN SHORELINE
CLIMBING TO OR ABOVE THE 80 DEGREE MARK. DID NUDGE HIGH TEMPS UP
A TICK GIVEN ANTICIPATED MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES. CURRENT FORECAST
FALLS JUST SHORT OF THE RECORD AT MADISON (84 IN 1938), BUT WILL
NEED TO WATCH TRENDS INTO TODAY.
QUIGLEY
SHORT TERM
ISSUED 105 AM CDT SAT OCT 10 2026
OVERNIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY:
THE AREA OF MIDDLE TO HIGH CLOUDS WILL GRADUALLY PUSH NORTHEAST
OF THE AREA OVERNIGHT. SOUTHEAST WINDS WILL GRADUALLY SHIFT
SOUTHWARD OVERNIGHT AS WELL, AS THE WARM FRONT MOVES NORTHWARD.
LOWS SHOULD DROP INTO THE MIDDLE 50S OVER MOST OF THE AREA.
GUSTY SOUTH WINDS ARE EXPECTED SATURDAY ACROSS THE AREA, WITHIN
A TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT. CLOUDS ASSOCIATED WITH THE REMNANTS
OF ISAIAS SHOULD PUSH NORTHWARD INTO AT LEAST SOUTHEAST
WISCONSIN BY LATER IN THE DAY. THIS MAY HOLD BACK HIGH
TEMPERATURES A BIT, DEPENDING ON HOW LONG IT TAKES FOR THEM TO
MOVE INTO THE AREA. THESE CLOUDS SHOULD MOVE EAST OF THE AREA BY
LATER SATURDAY NIGHT.
VERY WARM HIGHS IN THE UPPER 70S TO LOWER 80S ARE EXPECTED,
WITH 925 MB TEMPERATURES OF 20 DEGREES CELSIUS OR MORE. WINDS
SHOULD ALSO TURN MORE SOUTH SOUTHEAST NEAR LAKE MICHIGAN IN THE
AFTERNOON, WHICH MAY HOLD DOWN HIGHS THERE AS WELL. THE RECORD
HIGHS ARE 84 DEGREES AT MILWAUKEE AND MADISON FOR SATURDAY.
WINDS SHOULD WEAKEN SOMEWHAT ON SUNDAY, AS THE PRESSURE GRADIENT
WEAKENS. THIS SHOULD ALLOW FOR MORE SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS NEAR
LAKE MICHIGAN, WHICH MAY LIMIT HIGHS IN THE MIDDLE TO UPPER 70S
THERE. HIGHS SHOULD REACH AROUND 80 DEGREES OVER THE REST OF
THE AREA, WHICH REMAINS VERY WARM FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR.
WOOD
LONG TERM
ISSUED 105 AM CDT SAT OCT 10 2026
SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY:
WARM AIR ADVECTION ON SOUTHWEST WINDS SHOULD OCCUR SUNDAY NIGHT
INTO MONDAY ACROSS THE AREA, AHEAD OF THE WEAKENING LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM AND SOUTHEASTWARD-MOVING COLD FRONT. 925 MB TEMPERATURES
MAY RISE INTO THE 22 DEGREE CELSIUS LEVEL, WHICH MAY ALLOW FOR
HIGHS INTO THE LOWER 80S OR PERHAPS HIGHER. THE RECORD HIGHS FOR
MONDAY ARE 83 DEGREES AT MILWAUKEE AND MADISON.
THE LOW AND COLD FRONT MAY SAG SOUTHEASTWARD INTO THE AREA LATER
MONDAY OR MORE LIKELY MONDAY NIGHT, THEN TO THE SOUTHEAST ON
TUESDAY. DEW POINTS MAY RISE INTO THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 60S MONDAY
AHEAD OF THE FRONT, WITH SOME MEAN LAYER CAPE DEVELOPING PER
FORECAST SOUNDINGS. DEEP LAYER BULK SHEAR VALUES ARE MODEST, SO
WILL NEED TO MONITOR LATER MONDAY INTO MONDAY NIGHT FOR CHANCES
FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. TOO EARLY TO SAY IF ANY STRONGER
STORMS MAY OCCUR, BUT IT WILL BEAR WATCHING OVER THE NEXT FEW
DAYS.
HIGH PRESSURE MOVING IN BEHIND THE FRONT TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY
SHOULD BRING A BRIEF PERIOD OF QUIET WEATHER TO THE AREA, WITH
COOLER BUT STILL MILD TEMPERATURES.
TRENDS FOR LATER NEXT WEEK REMAIN UNCERTAIN, WITH SOME ENSEMBLES
SHOWING THE POTENTIAL FOR ACTIVE WEATHER AND OTHERS LESS SO.
THIS WILL DEPEND ON THE TRACK OF THE STRONG LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
AND ASSOCIATED 500 MB TROUGH SHIFTING SOUTHEAST ACROSS SOUTH
CENTRAL TO SOUTHEAST CANADA. FOR NOW, KEPT THE 20 TO 50 PERCENT
CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AT TIMES THROUGH THE LATTER PORTIONS OF NEXT
WEEK. ENSEMBLE MEMBERS STILL HINT AT A RETURN TO MORE
SEASONABLE AND COOLER TEMPERATURES BY THE END OF NEXT WEEK AND
INTO NEXT WEEKEND.
WOOD
AVIATION
ISSUED 445 AM CDT SAT OCT 10 2026
VFR FLIGHT CATEGORIES PREVAIL THROUGH THE PERIOD AT ALL
AERODROMES. LLWS REMAINS A POSSIBILITY THROUGH DAYBREAK NEAR
FL020, WITH MENTIONS CONTINUING THROUGH ~14Z IN THE COMING 12Z
FORECAST. THE REMAINS OF THE FORMER HURRICANE ISAIAS WILL MOVE
INTO THE TENNESSEE VALLEY TODAY, WITH SCT TO BKN CIRRUS NEAR
FL250 POSSIBLE DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS AT ALL TERMINALS.
SOUTH-SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL BE GUSTY THIS AFTERNOON AS LOW
PRESSURE MOVES INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS. THE LOW LEVEL JET WILL
INCREASE ONCE MORE ACROSS THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY TONIGHT,
BRINGING ADDITIONAL LLWS POTENTIAL FROM UES-SBM AND POINTS WEST
INTO THE PREDAWN HOURS. HAVE ACCOUNTED FOR THIS POTENTIAL IN
THE COMING 12Z FORECAST.
QUIGLEY
MARINE
ISSUED 105 AM CDT SAT OCT 10 2026
HIGH PRESSURE AROUND 30.2 INCHES WILL CONTINUE TO PUSH EAST
OVERNIGHT. WINDS WILL BECOME MORE SOUTHERLY OVERNIGHT, AS LOW
PRESSURE AROUND 29.2 INCHES DEVELOPS OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS.
EXPECT WINDS TO INCREASE FOR SATURDAY, WITH SOUTHERLY GUSTS UP
TO 30 KNOTS AT TIMES THROUGH EARLY SUNDAY MORNING. A FEW
SOUTHERLY GALE FORCE GUSTS ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE NORTHERN
PORTIONS OF THE LAKE SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. NO GALE
HEADLINES ARE ANTICIPATED AT THIS TIME.
A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IS IN NOW IN EFFECT THROUGH EARLY SUNDAY
MORNING FOR THE NEARSHORE WATERS OF LAKE MICHIGAN NORTH OF WIND
POINT. BUILDING WAVES FROM INCREASING SOUTH TO SOUTH SOUTHEAST
WINDS ARE EXPECTED DURING THIS PERIOD.
THE MAIN LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WEAKENS TO AROUND 29.6 INCHES, AS
IT LIFTS FROM ONTARIO INTO THE JAMES BAY REGION. THIS WILL DRAG
A COLD FRONT ACROSS THE UPPER GREAT LAKES LATER SUNDAY INTO
MONDAY, EASING SOUTHERLY WINDS BEFORE SHIFTING MORE WESTERLY
THEN NORTHERLY LATER MONDAY INTO TUESDAY.
COULD SEE A ROUND OF GUSTY NORTH WINDS MONDAY NIGHT INTO
TUESDAY ACROSS THE REGION BEHIND THE COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE. WINDS
AND WAVES MAY REACH SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY LEVELS TUESDAY INTO
TUESDAY NIGHT OVER THE NEARSHORE WATERS. WINDS WILL GRADUALLY
EASE THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK, AS ANOTHER HIGH PRESSURE
SYSTEM AROUND 30.2 INCHES BUILDS ACROSS THE UPPER GREAT LAKES
REGION.
WOOD
MKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
WI...NONE.
LM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY...LMZ643 UNTIL 7 AM SUNDAY.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY...LMZ644-LMZ645 UNTIL 1 AM SUNDAY.
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