291  
FXUS63 KMKX 240438  
AFDMKX  
 
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION  
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MILWAUKEE/SULLIVAN WI  
1138 PM CDT SAT MAR 23 2019  
   
UPDATE
 
MIDDLE TO HIGH CLOUDS WILL CONTINUE TO OVERSPREAD SRN  
WI FOR THE EARLY MORNING HOURS OF SUNDAY. LIGHT RAIN IS STILL  
LIKELY TOWARD SUNRISE OVER FAR SRN WI WITH MUCH LESSER CHANCES  
FROM MADISON TO MILWAUKEE AND NWD. A VORTICITY MAXIMUM, ROTATING  
AROUND THE UPPER LOW OVER THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS, WILL DE-AMPLIFY  
AND TURN EWD ACROSS NRN IL AND LOWER MI ON SUNDAY. THE NOSE OF A  
LLJ AND ASSOCIATED FRONTOGENESIS SHOULD STAY FAR SOUTH DURING THIS  
TIME. THUS, HAVE LIMITED LIKELY POPS TO FAR SRN WI WHERE SPORADIC  
LIGHT RAIN IS EXPECTED THROUGH THE DAY. THE MAIN UPPER LOW WILL  
ALSO REMAIN SOUTH AS A LARGER SCALE UPPER TROUGH MOVES ESEWD  
ACROSS SE CANADA AND THE GREAT LAKES. IT'S COLD FRONT WILL  
ACCELERATE SSWWD FROM LAKE MI AND SWEEP ACROSS SRN WI DURING THE  
EARLY TO MIDDLE AFTERNOON. GUSTY WINDS ESPECIALLY OVER THE LAKE  
COUNTIES ARE EXPECTED ALONG WITH TEMPS DROPPING FROM AROUND 50F  
INTO THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 30S.  
 

 
   
AVIATION(06Z TAFS)
 
VFR CONDITIONS FOR THE EARLY MORNING HOURS  
OF SUNDAY, BUT LIGHT RAIN WITH CIGS OF 1-3 KFT AND MVFR VSBYS  
WILL BECOME LIKELY TOWARD SUNRISE NEAR THE IL BORDER. MOST OF THE  
LIGHT RAIN WILL REMAIN IN THE COUNTIES BORDERING IL FOR SUNDAY  
WITH MUCH LESSER CHANCES TO THE NORTH. CIGS OF 1-3 KFT WILL STILL  
OVERSPREAD MUCH OF SRN WI FOR THE AFTERNOON ESPECIALLY AFTER A  
STRONG COLD FRONT ACCELERATES SSWWD FROM LAKE MI ACROSS SRN WI FOR  
THE EARLY TO MIDDLE AFTERNOON HOURS. NELY WIND GUSTS OF 20-30 KTS  
IS FORECAST DURING AND AFTER THE FRONTAL PASSAGE WITH THE  
STRONGEST WINDS OVER THE LAKE COUNTIES. SKIES WILL THEN CLEAR FROM  
NORTH TO SOUTH DURING THE EVENING HOURS WITH BRISK NELY WINDS  
CONTINUING.  
 

 
   
PREV DISCUSSION
 
(ISSUED 918 PM CDT SAT MAR 23 2019)  
 
UPDATE...THE FORECAST IS ON TRACK FOR TONIGHT AND SUNDAY.  
 
MARINE...A STRONG CANADIAN COLD FRONT WILL SWEEP FROM NORTH TO  
SOUTH ACROSS LAKE MI ON SUNDAY. AN ABRUPT WIND SHIFT TO BRISK  
NORTHERLY WINDS IS EXPECTED OVER THE NORTH HALF OF THE LAKE FROM  
JUST AFTER SUNRISE AND THROUGH THE MORNING. THE COLD FRONT WILL  
THEN SWEEP ACROSS THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE LAKE THROUGH THE  
AFTERNOON. GUSTY NORTH WINDS OF 20 TO 30 KNOTS WILL OCCUR WITH THE  
ABRUPT WIND SHIFT AND CONTINUE WINDY AFTERWARD WITH GALES  
EXPECTED BY LATE AFTERNOON. A GALE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FROM 5 PM  
CDT SUNDAY UNTIL 7 AM CDT MONDAY FOR THE SOUTHERN TWO THIRDS OF  
LAKE MI. HIGH WAVES WILL QUICKLY BUILD SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND  
CONTINUE WELL INTO MONDAY.  
 
PREV DISCUSSION... (ISSUED 711 PM CDT SAT MAR 23 2019)  
 
UPDATE...MIDDLE TO HIGH CLOUDS WILL OVERSPREAD SRN WI TNT. LIGHT  
RAIN IS STILL LIKELY TOWARD SUNRISE OVER FAR SRN WI WITH MUCH  
LESSER CHANCES FROM MADISON TO MILWAUKEE AND NWD. A VORTICITY  
MAXIMUM, ROTATING AROUND THE UPPER LOW OVER THE CENTRAL HIGH  
PLAINS, WILL DE-AMPLIFY AND TURN EWD ACROSS NRN IL AND LOWER MI  
ON SUNDAY. THE NOSE OF A LLJ AND ASSOCIATED FRONTOGENESIS SHOULD  
STAY FAR SOUTH DURING THIS TIME. THUS, HAVE LIMITED LIKELY POPS TO  
FAR SRN WI WHERE SPORADIC LIGHT RAIN IS EXPECTED THROUGH THE DAY.  
THE MAIN UPPER LOW WILL ALSO REMAIN SOUTH AS A LARGER SCALE UPPER  
TROUGH MOVES ESEWD ACROSS SE CANADA AND THE GREAT LAKES. IT'S COLD  
FRONT WILL ACCELERATE SSWWD FROM LAKE MI AND SWEEP ACROSS SRN WI  
DURING THE EARLY TO MIDDLE AFTERNOON. GUSTY WINDS ESPECIALLY OVER  
THE LAKE COUNTIES ARE EXPECTED ALONG WITH TEMPS DROPPING FROM  
AROUND 50F INTO THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 30S.  
 
AVIATION(00Z TAFS)...VFR CONDITIONS FOR MUCH OF TNT, BUT LIGHT  
RAIN WITH CIGS OF 1-3 KFT AND MVFR VSBYS WILL BECOME LIKELY  
TOWARD SUNRISE NEAR THE IL BORDER. MOST OF THE LIGHT RAIN WILL  
REMAIN IN THE COUNTIES BORDERING IL FOR SUNDAY WITH MUCH LESSER  
CHANCES TO THE NORTH. CIGS OF 1-3 KFT WILL STILL OVERSPREAD MUCH  
OF SRN WI INTO THE AFTERNOON ESPECIALLY AFTER A STRONG COLD FRONT  
ACCELERATES SSWWD FROM LAKE MI ACROSS SRN WI FOR THE EARLY TO  
MIDDLE AFTERNOON HOURS. NELY WIND GUSTS OF 20-30 KTS IS FORECAST  
DURING AND AFTER THE FRONTAL PASSAGE WITH THE STRONGEST WINDS OVER  
THE LAKE COUNTIES. SKIES WILL THEN CLEAR FROM NORTH TO SOUTH  
DURING THE EVENING HOURS WITH BRISK NELY WINDS CONTINUING.  
 
PREV DISCUSSION... (ISSUED 315 PM CDT SAT MAR 23 2019)  
 
SHORT TERM...  
 
CLOUDS WILL BEGIN TO INCREASE OVERNIGHT AS A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM  
OVER THE KANSAS/NEBRASKA BORDER SHIFTS EAST. RAIN CHANCES WILL  
MOVE INTO SOUTHWESTERN PORTIONS OF OUR CWA AFTER 3 AM AND SHIFT  
EAST. ACTIVITY WILL CONTINUE OFF AND ON THROUGHOUT THE DAY BEFORE  
ENDING DURING THE EARLY EVENING. ACTIVITY WILL BE MAINLY ALONG AND  
SOUTH OF I-94 WITH BEST CHANCES ALONG THE WISCONSIN/ILLINOIS  
BORDER.  
 
THE MAIN FORCING WITH THIS SYSTEM IS 500 MB VORTICITY ADVECTION  
OVER THE AREA. THERE IS NOT MUCH IN THE WAY OF LIFT IN THE LOWER  
LEVELS OR WITH THE UPPER LEVEL JET. WITH THAT BEING SAID THERE ARE  
A FEW UNCERTAINTIES WITH HOW FAR NORTH PRECIPITATION WILL GET.  
THERE IS DRY AIR IN PLACE WHICH WILL DELAY THE INCOMING MOISTURE.  
ANOTHER FACTOR TO CONSIDER IS THE FRONT MOVING THROUGH LATE  
SUNDAY AFTERNOON INTO THE EARLY EVENING. THIS FRONT WILL BE  
BRINGING IN DRY AIR AND COLDER TEMPERATURES. THIS MAY RESULT IN A  
LIGHT WINTRY MIX BEFORE PRECIPITATION CLEARS THE AREA, OR MAY END  
PRECIPITATION SOONER IF IT HAS MORE MOMENTUM THAN IS CURRENTLY  
EXPECTED.  
 
LONG TERM...  
 
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE AREA FOR MONDAY AND TUESDAY,  
WITH CLEAR SKIES AND COOL TEMPERATURES EXPECTED. HIGHS MONDAY LOOK  
TO BE IN THE LOW 40S (UPPER 30S NEAR THE LAKE), WITH MID 40S  
EXPECTED ON TUESDAY. CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS WILL ALLOW  
OVERNIGHT LOWS TO FALL INTO THE LOW 20S.  
 
HIGH PRESSURE WILL PUSH EAST INTO NEW ENGLAND BY WEDNESDAY  
MORNING, WITH GUSTY SOUTHERLY FLOW DEVELOPING ACROSS THE AREA.  
THIS WILL HELP BOOST TEMPERATURES INTO THE LOW TO MID 50S FOR  
WEDNESDAY.  
 
CONTINUED STRONG SOUTHERLY FLOW AND WARM ADVECTION WILL HELP BOOST  
TEMPS TO AROUND 60 BY THURSDAY. SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS  
WILL BE ON THE INCREASE FROM LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THE DAY  
ON THURSDAY.  
 
SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES CONTINUE THURSDAY NIGHT AHEAD OF  
AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT. PRECIPITATION MAY END AS A WINTRY MIX  
LATER FRIDAY AS THE FRONT MOVES THROUGH AND COLDER AIR BUILDS INTO  
THE REGION.  
 
AVIATION(18Z TAFS)...  
 
VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE NIGHT. A LAKE BREEZE  
DEVELOPED THIS AFTERNOON. IT'S DELAYED, BUT STILL EXPECTED TO  
IMPACT MKE FOR A FEW HOURS BEFORE SHIFTING SOUTHERLY AGAIN THIS  
EVENING. CLOUDS WILL BUILD INTO THE REGION OVERNIGHT AS RAIN  
MOVES INTO THE AREA SUNDAY MORNING. EXPECT CEILINGS TO GRADUALLY  
DECREASE TO MVFR LATE SUNDAY MORNING.  
 
INTERMITTENT LIGHT RAIN WILL PERSIST THROUGHOUT THE DAY MAINLY  
IMPACTING AREAS ALONG AND SOUTH OF I-94. EXPECT GUSTY NORTHEAST  
WINDS AND DRIER AIR TO SPREAD INTO SOUTHERN WI IN THE WAKE OF A  
COLD FRONT LATE SUNDAY AFTERNOON.  
 
MARINE...  
 
A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL MOVE OVER CENTRAL ILLINOIS SUNDAY AND  
BRING A CHANCE FOR LIGHT RAIN, OR POSSIBLY A WINTRY MIX, TO  
SOUTHERN LAKE MICHIGAN DURING THE DAY. A POTENT COLD FRONT WILL  
DROP SOUTH THROUGH LAKE MICHIGAN LATE SUNDAY AFTERNOON. EXPECT  
NORTH-NORTHEAST GALE FORCE GUSTS IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT OVER THE  
SOUTHERN TWO THIRDS THROUGH EARLY MONDAY MORNING. WE UPGRADED TO A  
GALE WARNING.  
 
QUIET CONDITIONS ARE THEN EXPECTED AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN  
MONDAY AFTERNOON INTO TUESDAY. LOW PRESSURE APPROACHING FROM THE  
PLAINS WILL BRING OUR NEXT CHANCE FOR GUSTY SOUTHERLY WINDS OVER  
LAKE MICHIGAN WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY. GALE FORCE GUSTS ARE  
POSSIBLE.  
 

 
   
MKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
 
 
WI...NONE.  
LM...GALE WARNING FROM 5 PM SUNDAY TO 7 AM CDT MONDAY FOR LMZ080-567-  
643>646-669-671-673-675-777-779-868-870-872-874-876-878.  
 

 
 

 
 
UPDATE...GEHRING  
TONIGHT/SUNDAY AND AVIATION/MARINE...RAR  
SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY...BOXELL  
 
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