398
FXUS63 KMKX 091955
AFDMKX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MILWAUKEE/SULLIVAN WI
155 PM CST MON DEC 9 2019
SHORT TERM
REST OF THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT - CONFIDENCE...MEDIUM
MOST INTENSE PORTION OF SNOW BAND HAS RESULTED IN MUCH MORE IMPACT
TO OUR SOUTHWEST IN IA WHERE SQW WAS ISSUED. WILL KEEP GOING
ADVISORY IN PLACE AS THIS BAND WORKS THROUGH, HOWEVER SOME
DECREASE IN REFLECTIVITIES NOTED IN PARTS OF THE BAND HEADING INTO
SC WI. THIS BAND WILL EXIT QUICKLY TO THE EAST LATE THIS AFTERNOON
OR VERY EARLY THIS EVENING WITH MAIN STORY BECOMING POTENT COLD
AIR ADVECTION ALONG WITH EVOLVING REFREEZE POTENTIAL. MILD ROAD
SURFACE TEMPS WILL GRADUALLY LOWER TO SUBFREEZING VALUES AS THIS
COLDER AIRMASS TAKES HOLD OVERNIGHT. SO WILL BE MESSAGING THE
REFREEZE IDEA WITH THE ARRIVAL OF THIS MUCH COLDER AIRMASS.
TUESDAY - CONFIDENCE...MEDIUM TO HIGH
COLD AIRMASS WILL DOMINATE WITH BUFKIT SHOWING CONSIDERABLE DRYING
WITHIN THE COLUMN. MID LEVEL FLOW REMAINS BROADLY CYCLONIC.
WEST/NORTHWEST WINDS WILL PREVAIL WITH THE VERY COLD AND DRY AIR
IN PLACE.
LONG TERM
TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY - CONFIDENCE...HIGH
ARCTIC AIR WILL MAKE ITS WAY INTO THE REGION TUESDAY NIGHT WITH
TEMPERATURES DROPPING INTO THE SINGLE DIGITS AND WIND CHILLS BELOW
ZERO. HIGHS WEDNESDAY WILL MAINLY BE IN THE TEENS. THURSDAY AN
APPROACHING SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL HELP BRING WARMER TEMPERATURES
AS WINDS SHIFT TO THE SOUTH. WARM AIR ADVECTION MAY PROVIDE ENOUGH
LIFT FOR A FEW SNOW SHOWERS, BUT THE BEST CHANCE WILL BE NORTH OF
OUR FORECAST AREA. TEMPERATURES THURSDAY WILL BE IN THE UPPER 20S
TO LOW 30S.
THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY - CONFIDENCE...MEDIUM
AN ACTIVE PATTERN SETS UP FOR THE END OF THE WEEK WITH MULTIPLE
SHORTWAVES MOVING THROUGH. TIMING OF THESE WAVES WILL DETERMINE
PRECIPITATION TYPE AS TEMPERATURES DURING THE DAY ARE EXPECTED TO
BE ABOVE FREEZING. AS WE GET CLOSER CONFIDENCE IS EXPECTED TO
INCREASE. THERE IS AGREEMENT THAT SUNDAY WILL BE DRY, BEFORE RAIN
AND SNOW CHANCES RETURN.
AVIATION(21Z TAFS)
BAND OF SNOW EXITS TO THE EAST BY 23Z.
WIDESPREAD IFR/LIFR CONDITIONS AHEAD OF ARCTIC FRONT WILL
TRANSITION TO MVFR OVERNIGHT WITH NORTHWEST WINDS/COLD AIR
ADVECTION TAKING HOLD AND CONTINUING INTO TUESDAY. EXPECT SOME
SUNSHINE WITH OVERALL DRY COLUMN THOUGH SOME CU POSSIBLE WITH
BROAD MID LEVEL CYCLONIC FLOW PERSISTING.
MARINE
STRONG NORTHWEST WINDS WILL DEVELOP BEHIND A COLD FRONT
AND WILL PERSIST OVERNIGHT TONIGHT. GOING SMALL CRAFT AND GALE
WARNING LOOKS GOOD. THE ARRIVAL OF A MUCH COLDER AIRMASS WILL
LEAD TO FREEZING SPRAY AT TIMES THROUGH MID-WEEK.
MKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
WI...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 3 PM CST THIS AFTERNOON FOR WIZ046-
047-056-057-062-063-067-068.
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 5 PM CST THIS AFTERNOON FOR WIZ051-
052-058>060-064>066-069>072.
LM...GALE WARNING FROM 6 PM THIS EVENING TO 2 AM CST TUESDAY FOR
LMZ080-675-777-779-876-878.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM CST TUESDAY FOR LMZ643>646.
TONIGHT/TUESDAY AND AVIATION/MARINE...COLLAR
TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY...RAR
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