525
FXUS63 KMKX 271130
AFDMKX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MILWAUKEE/SULLIVAN WI
630 AM CDT TUE OCT 27 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- MILD TEMPERATURES RETURN FOR MUCH OF THE WEEK.
- SCATTERED SPRINKLES TODAY THEN A 60-90 PERCENT CHANCE FOR RAIN
SHOWERS LATE WED NT NORTH AND WEST OF THE MKE METRO AREA. SOME
LINGERING SHOWERS THU AM.
- CHANCES FOR RAIN CONTINUE EACH DAY THROUGH THE WEEKEND INTO
EARLY NEXT WEEK.
UPDATE
ISSUED 630 AM CDT TUE OCT 27 2026
VORTICITY MAXIMUMS UPSTREAM IN SWLY FLOW WILL MOVE ACROSS SRN WI
THIS AFTERNOON, WHILE A MORE ORGANIZED SHORTWAVE TROUGH OVER KS
AND OK MOVES ACROSS NRN IL THIS EVENING. AT THE SURFACE, ELY
WINDS WILL SHIFT SELY AS A LOW PRESSURE TROUGH TRACKS NWD
THROUGH MN. MID TO HIGH CLOUDS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE DAY, BUT
CANNOT RULE OUT A FEW SPRINKLES OR VERY LIGHT SHOWERS THIS
AFTERNOON. THE WINDS WILL SHIFT DUE SLY TNT-WED WITH TEMPS
WARMING EACH DAY.
GEHRING
SHORT TERM
ISSUED 1155 PM CDT MON OCT 26 2026
TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT:
LIGHT RAIN/DRIZZLE WILL CONTINUE TO BE POSSIBLE TONIGHT THROUGH
TUESDAY NIGHT ACROSS SOUTHERN WISCONSIN. SOME 500 MB PVA AND MID
LEVEL WARM AIR ADVECTION SHOULD CREATE ENOUGH LIFT TO PROVIDE
AT LEAST SOME CLOUD COVER AND LIGHT RAIN AT THE WORST. THE OVER
UNDER ON RAIN CHANCES WILL DEPEND ON HOW MUCH AVAILABLE MOISTURE
THERE IS FOR RAIN. FORECAST SOUNDINGS LEAN ON THE MID LEVELS
MOISTEN UP, WHILE THE LOW LEVELS RETAIN SOME DRY AIR. THERE IS
VARIABILITY ON HOW DEEP THE MID LEVEL MOISTURE IS WHICH WILL
PLAY A ROLL IN HOW MUCH OF IT MAKES IT TO THE GROUND. POPS ARE
AROUND 10% GIVEN THE LINGER DRY AIR. THE BEST CHANCES FOR EVEN
THESE LIGHT SHOWERS WILL BE ACROSS PORTIONS OF SOUTHWESTERN AND
WEST CENTRAL WISCONSIN. BY FAR THE BETTER CHANCES FOR RAIN RAIN
WILL BE TO THE WEST AND NORTH OF THE SOUTHERN WISCONSIN CWA.
OVERNIGHT LOWS ARE EXPECTED TO FALL INTO THE LOWER 40S TO LOWER
50S WITH WARMER CONDITIONS FOUND NEAR LAKE MICHIGAN. FROM HERE
TEMPERATURES WILL GRADUALLY WARM BACK INTO THE LOW 70S TO UPPER
60S THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
PATTERSON
LONG TERM
ISSUED 1155 PM CDT MON OCT 26 2026
TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY:
WITH A LOW PRESSURE TO THE NORTHWEST IN MANITOBA MOVING
NORTHEAST TOWARD THE JAMES BAY WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY, A COLD
FRONT IS EXPECTED TO CROSS THROUGH WISCONSIN. AS THIS FRONT
MOVES THROUGH THIS LOOKS TO BE OUR BEST CHANCE FOR RAIN SO FAR.
THE FRONT IS EXPECTED TO PASS THROUGH SOUTHERN WISCONSIN
WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY MORNING BRINGING SOME LIGHT RAIN
AND SMALL CHANCE FOR A COUPLE RUMBLES OF THUNDER. MODELS
CONTINUE TO SHOW A CHANCE FOR SOME ELEVATED CAPE WHICH IS
POSSIBLE WITH THE PERSISTENT MID LEVEL WAA OUT AHEAD OF THE
FRONT. SOUTHERN WISCONSIN WILL BE IN THE WARM SECTOR ALL DAY
OUT AHEAD OF THE FRONT AS WELL TO PRIME THE ENVIRONMENT.
THANKFULLY THE TIME OF DAY THAT THE FRONT MOVES THROUGH IS LESS
THAN IDEAL. SO WHILE THUNDER IS ON THE TABLE, NOTHING ELSE IS.
BEHIND THE FRONT, COOLER TEMPERATURES WILL BRIEFLY MOVE IN
KNOCKING THURSDAY NIGHT LOWS INTO THE LOWER 40S TO LOWER 50S
(SIMILAR TO TONIGHT).
HIGH PRESSURE AND ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL BRIEFLY MOVE IN
BEHIND THE COLD FRONT FOR THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY, BUT THEN SOME
UNCERTAINTY RETURNS TO THE FORECAST. THIS HIGH PRESSURE AT THE
SFC LOOKS TO BE FAIRLY WEAK WHILE AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH EJECTS
OUT OF THE DESERT SOUTHWEST UNDERCUTTING THE RIDGING. THE TROUGH
AND SUBSEQUENT SHORT WAVES PATHS VARY MODEL TO MODEL. THIS
PAINTS A FAIRLY BROAD AREA WITH UPPER LEVEL PVA AND CHANCE FOR
RAIN. THE CURRENT AVERAGE AMONG GUIDANCE FOR POPS IS 30-60%
FROM ROUGHLY FRIDAY EVENING THROUGH MONDAY. THE EXACT PATH OF
THE SHORTWAVES AND TROUGH, THE AMOUNT OF AVAILABLE MOISTURE AND
POTENTIALLY WAA WILL PLAY A ROLL IN HOW MUCH RAIN WE GET OVER
THIS PERIOD. THE TAKE AWAY HERE IS THERE ARE CHANCES FOR RAIN,
WE ARE ENTERING INTO A WETTER PATTERN/PERIOD, BUT THIS ISNT
EXPECTED TO BE A WASHOUT. THE TIMING OF RAIN SHOULD TIGHTEN UP
AS MODELS GAIN SOME MORE CERTAINTY/CONSENSUS.
PATTERSON
AVIATION
ISSUED 630 AM CDT TUE OCT 27 2026
MID TO HIGH CLOUDS WILL PREVAIL TODAY AND TNT, BUT LOCAL MVFR
CIGS MAY DEVELOP THIS MORNING OVER FAR ERN WI FOR A FEW HOURS.
GEHRING
MARINE
ISSUED 1155 PM CDT MON OCT 26 2026
HIGH PRESSURE IN WESTERN ONTARIO WILL TRACK EAST INTO THE
NORTHERN GREAT LAKES REGION TONIGHT KEEPING A MODEST NORTHEAST
TO EAST WIND ACROSS LAKE MICHIGAN. WINDS WILL SHIFT TO
SOUTHEASTERLY TUESDAY AS THIS HIGH PRESSURE BEGINS TO MOVE EAST
OUT OF THE REGION. MEANWHILE A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IN THE
CENTRAL PLAINS WILL TRACK INTO MINNESOTA THEN TOWARD LAKE
SUPERIOR. SOUTH TO SOUTHEAST WINDS WILL BE BREEZY AGAIN TUESDAY
AFTERNOON THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT BEFORE DIMINISHING AGAIN. A
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT INTO EARLY TUESDAY AFTERNOON
SOUTH OF NORTH POINT LIGHT AND UNTIL TUESDAY EVENING FOR AREAS
NORTH OF THERE DUE TO THE BUILDING WAVES AND BREEZY WINDS.
HEADING INTO MID WEEK ANOTHER LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL FOLLOW A
SIMILAR PATH FROM THE CENTRAL PLAINS TOWARD JAMES BAY DRAGGING A
COLD FRONT ACROSS THE LAKE LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY
MORNING. WINDS WILL SHIFT TO THE NORTH TO NORTHWEST BEHIND THE
COLD FRONT FOR THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY.
PATTERSON
MKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
WI...NONE.
LM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY...LMZ643-LMZ644 UNTIL 6 PM TUESDAY.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY...LMZ645-LMZ646 UNTIL 1 PM TUESDAY.
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