817
FXUS63 KMKX 020526
AFDMKX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MILWAUKEE/SULLIVAN WI
1226 AM CDT THU APR 2 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT FOR COUNTIES NORTH OF
INTERSTATE 94 FOR ICE ACCRETIONS FROM FREEZING RAIN. 0.1 TO
0.2 INCHES OF ICE ACCRETION IS EXPECTED, MAINLY ON ELEVATED
AND UNTREATED SURFACES. TRAVEL IMPACTS TO THE THURSDAY MORNING
COMMUTE ARE EXPECTED.
- THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED THURSDAY INTO THURSDAY NIGHT.
STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS ARE EXPECTED DURING THE AFTERNOON INTO
THE EVENING. A SLIGHT RISK FOR SEVERE WEATHER EXISTS NORTH OF
INTERSTATE 94, AND AN ENHANCED RISK EXISTS ALONG AND SOUTH OF
INTERSTATE 94. ALL SEVERE WEATHER HAZARDS WILL BE POSSIBLE.
- ADDITIONAL CHANCES FOR RAIN AND STRONG THUNDERSTORMS FRIDAY
AFTERNOON INTO SATURDAY.
- EASTERLY TO SOUTHERLY WIND GUSTS WILL REACH GALE FORCE OVER
THE NORTHERN TWO THIRDS OF THE LAKE. A GALE WARNING IS IN
EFFECT THURSDAY INTO THURSDAY NIGHT.
SHORT TERM
ISSUED 1227 AM CDT THU APR 2 2026
OVERNIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT:
RAIN IS SPREADING INTO SOUTHERN WI AND TEMPERATURES ARE SITTING
BETWEEN 32 AND 34 DEGREES NORTH OF A LINE FROM LONE ROCK TO
MADISON TO WATERTOWN TO WEST BEND, WITH TEMPS 35 TO 37 SOUTH OF
THERE. FREEZING RAIN ON ELEVATED SURFACES IS BEGINNING IN SAUK
COUNTY ALREADY AND THE WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT
FOR THE NORTHERN TWO TIERS OF COUNTIES.
RAIN WILL TAPER OFF AND BECOME MORE SHOWERY IN NATURE DURING
THE EARLY AFTERNOON AS THE WARM FRONT LIFTS THROUGH SOUTHERN
WI. THE 00Z MODELS CAME IN WITH A LITTLE MORE SOUTHERLY LOW
TRACK THAN THE PREVIOUS RUNS, SO I LOWERED THE MAX TEMPERATURES
A NOTCH, ESPECIALLY TOWARD CENTRAL WI.
AS FOR OUR SEVERE THREAT TOMORROW, THE LOW LEVEL SHEAR WILL BE
VERY STRONG, AND THERE STILL LOOKS LIKE THERE WILL BE A BRIEF
WINDOW WHERE A PORTION OF SOUTHERN WI GETS INTO THE WARM SECTOR
AND TAPS INTO HIGHER INSTABILITY. THE HREF STILL HAS THIS AREA
WITH LESS THAN 1000 J/KG MUCAPE, BUT IN THIS HIGH-SHEAR
ENVIRONMENT, WE CAN SEE SNEAKY SEVERE WITH LOWER INSTABILITY.
THE PERSISTENT EASTERLY WINDS OFF LAKE MICHIGAN WILL KEEP
CONDITIONS COOLER NEAR THE LAKE, AND IT WILL NOT BE UNTIL LATE
AFTERNOON BEFORE WINDS MAY BECOME SSW THERE. WITH THE SURFACE
LOW TRACKING FROM ROUGHLY MINERAL POINT TO MADISON TO SHEBOYGAN
AND A DELAY IN WINDS BECOMING SOUTHERLY ALONG THE LAKE, THIS
WILL SHRINK OUR AREA FOR DISCRETE, LOW- TOPPED SUPERCELLS DURING
THE LATE AFTERNOON HOURS. THINKING GREEN, ROCK AND WALWORTH
COUNTIES HAVE THE BEST CHANCE FOR THIS, WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR
THE AREA TO REACH INTO SOUTHERN DANE, JEFFERSON AND WAUKESHA
COUNTIES. OF COURSE, THIS CAN CHANGE AS WE GET CLOSER TO THE
TIME AND SEE HOW THE FRONT PLAYS OUT.
THE ACTUAL COLD FRONT WILL TRACK ACROSS SOUTHERN WI FROM 7 PM TO
10 PM, AND THIS WILL LIKELY BRING A LINE OF STORMS. THE 0 TO 3
SHEAR VECTORS WILL BE STRONG AND PERPENDICULAR TO THE LINE, SO
FAVORABLE FOR QLCS TORNADOES. THE NORTHERN PART OF THIS LINE
SHOULD ZIPPER UP AND COINCIDE WITH THE PASSAGE OF THE SURFACE
LOW, SO MUCH OF OUR FORECAST AREA COULD SEE A BRIEF THREAT FOR
SEVERE STORMS. THE ONLY AREA THAT MAY MISS OUT ON THIS LINE OF
STORMS WOULD BE SAUK, MARQUETTE, GREEN LAKE, FOND DU LAC AND
SHEBOYGAN COUNTIES.
CRONCE
LONG TERM
ISSUED 1227 AM CDT THU APR 2 2026
FRIDAY THROUGH THURSDAY:
COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE AND A BRIEF WAVE OF HIGH PRESSURE FRIDAY
MORNING, WITH MORNING TEMPERATURES IN THE UPPER 30S TO LOW 40S.
ALTHOUGH SKIES MAY BRIEFLY CLEAR UNDER HIGH PRESSURE AND ALLOW
TEMPERATURES TO RISE, EXPECTING PHASING BETWEEN THE COLD FRONT
AND A DEVELOPING WARM FRONTAL FEATURE FROM LOW PRESSURE IN THE
CENTRAL PLAINS TO LEAD TO INCREASING EASTERLY WINDS INTO THE
AFTERNOON HOURS. THIS WILL BRING COLDER, DENSE AIR FROM LAKE
MICHIGAN INTO SOUTHERN WISCONSIN. CURRENT FORECAST IS FOR
TEMPERATURES TO REMAIN IN THE LOW 50S IN MOST AREAS, BUT
TEMPERATURES MAY RISE QUICKLY TOWARD THE 60S IN SOUTHWESTERN
WISCONSIN DUE TO LOW PRESSURE LIFTING NORTHEASTWARD INTO EASTERN
IOWA AND BRINGING A WAVE OF SURFACE WAA. REGARDLESS, EXPECTING
DEVELOPING CONVECTION TO REMAIN ELEVATED WITH A VERY STRONG
INVERSION IN THE MID-LEVELS. LOW PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO FULLY
OCCLUDE AS IT PROGRESSES INTO EASTERN IOWA FRIDAY EVENING, LEADING
TO A STRONG 850-700 MB WARM FRONT OVER SOUTHERN WISCONSIN WHILE
SURFACE TEMPERATURES REMAIN COLD (UPPER 30S TO LOW 40S).
GENERALLY HAVE RULED OUT THE IDEA OF ANY FREEZING PRECIPITATION
WITH THE OCCLUDED FRONT PUSHING THROUGH NORTHERN WISCONSIN
OVERNIGHT FRIDAY. HOWEVER, A SUBSTANTIAL AMOUNT OF MUCAPE
(1000-1500 J/KG) RIDING ALONG THE 850-700 MB FRONT COMBINED WITH
FREEZING LEVELS AROUND 12,000 FT AND EQUILIBRIUM LEVELS NEAR
38,000 FT AND MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES AROUND 7 DEGREES C/KM GIVES AN
ENVIRONMENT FAVORABLE FOR LARGE HAIL GROWTH. 0-6 KM SOUTHWESTERLY BULK
SHEAR OF 50-60 KT ALSO IS EXPECTED, WHICH WILL ALLOW FOR A FEW
INDIVIDUAL CELLS TO DEVELOP AND TAP INTO THE FAVORABLE
ENVIRONMENT. STORMS WILL LIKELY BECOME LESS DISCRETE AND MORE
LINEAR AS THE LOW PROPAGATES THROUGH NORTHERN WISCONSIN, BRINGING
AN END TO THE LARGE HAIL THREAT. COLD FRONTAL FEATURE MOVES
OFFSHORE INTO LAKE MICHIGAN SATURDAY MORNING, WITH GUSTY WESTERLY
WINDS AND HIGHS IN THE 50S EXPECTED BEHIND THE FRONT.
TRENDS TOWARD A FASTER EJECTION OF THE LOW HAVE REDUCED CHANCES
FOR PRECIPITATION INTO SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT, WITH GENERALLY
DRY CONDITIONS NOW EXPECTED. LOWS SATURDAY NIGHT ARE EXPECTED TO
HOVER NEAR FREEZING. GUSTY NORTHWESTERLY WINDS CONTINUE INTO
SUNDAY AS CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE PLAINS, WITH
HIGHS IN THE UPPER 40S TO NEAR 50 DEGREES.
SUNDAY NIGHT, A SHORTWAVE PROGRESSES THROUGH NORTHERN WISCONSIN
AND BRINGS SLIGHT CHANCES FOR A MIX OF RAIN AND SNOW TO SOUTHERN
WISCONSIN (~15% CHANCES). MONDAY, AS A REINFORCING CANADIAN HIGH
BUILDS INTO UPPER MIDWEST, CONTINUED SCATTERED SNOW/RAIN SHOWERS
ARE EXPECTED ALONG THE EASTERN EDGES OVER SOUTHER WISCONSIN
(15-30% CHANCES). HIGH PRESSURE AFFECTS SOUTHERN WISCONSIN
OVERNIGHT, BRINGING LOWS IN THE 20S AND LIGHT WINDS. HIGH PRESSURE
LINGERS THROUGH TUESDAY, WITH WINDS TURNING TO SOUTHERLY OVERNIGHT
AS HIGH PRESSURE EXITS AND MULTIPLE SHORTWAVES BEGIN TO BUILD
BROAD RIDGING OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS. NEXT CHANCES FOR
PRECIPITATION DEVELOP WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY AS LOW
PRESSURE EJECTS FROM THE HIGH PLAINS AND PROPAGATES EASTWARD.
MODEL DISCREPANCY INCREASES DURING THIS TIMEFRAME, SO TOO EARLY TO
CALL FOR SPECIFIC HAZARDS AND TIMING, BUT THIS PERIOD DOES BEAR
WATCHING FOR THE NEXT STORM SET-UP.
MH
AVIATION
ISSUED 1227 AM CDT THU APR 2 2026
THE MVFR CLOUDS OF 2500 FT ALONG THE LAKESHORE FILLED BACK IN
FROM MILWAUKEE SOUTH. STEADY LIGHT RAIN WITH POCKETS OF
MODERATE HAS SPREAD INTO ALL OF SOUTHERN WI ALREADY AND WILL
CONTINUE TO FILL INTO EAST CENTRAL WI THROUGH 2 AM. CONFIDENCE
IS FAIRLY HIGH THAT AREAS ALONG AND SOUTH OF A LINE FROM LONE
ROCK TO MADISON TO MILWAUKEE WILL REMAIN ALL RAIN TONIGHT,
ALTHOUGH ELEVATED SURFACES MAY GET A LIGHT GLAZE WITH DRIZZLE
THAT WILL MELT AWAY OVERNIGHT AS TEMPS INCREASE. LIGHT FREEZING
RAIN IS STILL EXPECTED NORTH OF THAT LINE DUE TO TEMPERATURES
ALREADY IN THE LOWER 30S. AMOUNTS BETWEEN 0.1 AND 0.2 INCH ARE
POSSIBLE ON ELEVATED SURFACES LIKE ANTENNAS AND SENSORS, BUT
PAVEMENT TEMPS ARE SOLIDLY IN THE UPPER 30S.
CEILINGS WILL FALL WITH THE RAIN OVERNIGHT, LIKELY DROPPING TO
IFR BELOW 1000 FT. VISIBILITY BELOW 3SM IS ALSO LIKELY WITH THE
RAIN. INCREASING MOISTURE OVER SOUTHERN WI AS THE NIGHT GOES ON
MAY ALLOW FOR LIFR CEILINGS AND VSBYS BELOW 2SM DURING THE
MORNING HOURS.
WHILE WINDS REMAIN OUT OF THE EAST OVER ALL OF SOUTHERN WI
DURING THE LATE MORNING AND EARLY AFTERNOON HOURS, WINDS JUST
ABOVE THE SURFACE WILL START INCREASING AND BECOME STRONG OVER
40 KT ABOVE 2000 FT AGL. A PERIOD OF NON- CONVECTIVE LOW LEVEL
WIND SHEAR IS EXPECTED, AND WILL END AS THE SURFACE WINDS TURN
AROUND TO THE SOUTH WITH THE ARRIVAL OF THE WARM FRONT.
CRONCE
MARINE
ISSUED 1227 AM CDT THU APR 2 2026
BREEZY NORTHEAST TO EAST WINDS WILL INCREASE THROUGH THURSDAY
MORNING AS HIGH PRESSURE OF 30.7 REMAINS NEAR JAMES BAY AND LOW
PRESSURE OF 29.4 INCHES APPROACHES FROM THE CENTRAL PLAINS. THESE
WINDS WILL THEN REACH GALE FORCE THURSDAY MORNING AND THROUGH THE
DAY AS A WARM FRONT LIFTS NORTHWARD OVER THE LAKE.
EASTERLY GALES UP TO 40 KT OVER THE NORTHERN THIRD OF THE LAKE
WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE DAY, WHILE THE SOUTHERN TWO THIRDS
MAY SEE A LULL DURING THE AFTERNOON AS THE WARM FRONT SLOWLY
MOVES IN. THEN LOW-END SOUTHERLY GALES ARE EXPECTED OVER THE
SOUTHERN TWO THIRDS DURING THE EVENING HOURS. A GALE WARNING
WITH TWO SEGMENTS REMAINS IN EFFECT, WITH STAGGERED END TIMES,
AND IT WAS EXPANDED TO INCLUDE THE SOUTHERN TIP OF THE LAKE.
THUNDERSTORMS ARE ALSO EXPECTED OVER THE SOUTHERN TWO THIRDS OF
LAKE MICHIGAN THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. WINDS WILL
ABRUPTLY SHIFT TO THE WEST BEHIND THE COLD FRONT THURSDAY NIGHT.
THE NEARSHORE AREAS REMAIN WITH A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY, AS THERE
IS LESS CERTAINTY FOR FREQUENT GALE FORCE GUSTS.
BEYOND, WINDS BECOME LIGHT AND VARIABLE FRIDAY LATE MORNING INTO
FRIDAY AFTERNOON BEFORE GUSTY NORTHEAST WINDS RETURN AHEAD OF A
LOW PRESSURE OF 29.8 INCHES ON SATURDAY.
CRONCE
MKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
WI...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY...WIZ046-WIZ047-WIZ051-WIZ052-WIZ056-
WIZ057-WIZ058-WIZ059-WIZ060...1 AM THURSDAY TO 9 AM
THURSDAY.
LM...GALE WARNING...LMZ080-LMZ366-LMZ565-LMZ567-LMZ669-LMZ671-
LMZ673-LMZ675-LMZ777-LMZ779-LMZ868-LMZ870-LMZ872-LMZ874-
LMZ876-LMZ878...7 AM THURSDAY TO 1 AM FRIDAY.
GALE WARNING...LMZ261-LMZ362-LMZ364-LMZ563...7 AM THURSDAY TO
9 PM THURSDAY.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY...LMZ643-LMZ644-LMZ645-LMZ646 UNTIL 4 AM
FRIDAY.
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