639
FXUS63 KMKX 051613 AAA
AFDMKX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MILWAUKEE/SULLIVAN WI
1113 AM CDT SUN JUL 5 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- THERE ARE SMALL CHANCES (AROUND 15 TO 20 PERCENT) FOR SHOWERS
AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS IN FAR SOUTHEAST WISCONSIN THIS
MORNING, AS WELL AS THIS AFTERNOON ALONG AND WEST OF
INTERSTATE 90. ISOLATED CLOUD-TO-GROUND LIGHTNING WOULD BE THE
MAIN IMPACT WITH ANY ACTIVITY.
- MODERATE SWIM RISK FOR BEACHES IN MILWAUKEE, RACINE AND
KENOSHA COUNTIES THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
- NEXT OPPORTUNITY FOR WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
ARRIVES WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY.
UPDATE
ISSUED 1113 AM CDT SUN JUL 5 2026
THE MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH IS STILL OVERHEAD AND THERE IS
STILL NEARLY 1000 J/KG OF SURFACE-BASED CAPE WEST OF MADISON,
AND 500 J/KG OF ELEVATED CAPE TOWARD SOUTHEAST WI. THERE IS ALSO
A WEAK MESOVORT OVER SOUTHERN LAKE MICHIGAN. I EXPANDED THE
SLIGHT CHANCE (20%) FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO COVER FAR
SOUTHERN WI AND MORE OF SOUTH CENTRAL WI. THE NORTH-NORTHEAST
WINDS OFF LAKE MICHIGAN TODAY SHOULD KEEP SHOWERS FROM
DEVELOPING IN THE MILWAUKEE/WAUKESHA AREA AND NORTHWARD. ANY
PRECIP CHANCES WILL DIMINISH THIS EVENING AS THE SUN GOES DOWN.
STEADY NORTH-NORTHEAST WINDS OVER LAKE MICHIGAN WILL BRING WAVE
HEIGHTS INTO THE 2 TO 4 FOOT RANGE ALONG THE SHORELINE. THERE IS
A MODERATE SWIM RISK FOR MILWAUKEE, RACINE AND KENOSHA COUNTIES
TODAY THROUGH LATE EVENING.
CRONCE
SHORT TERM
ISSUED 1100 PM CDT SAT JUL 4 2026
REST OF OVERNIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT:
SYNOPSIS/MESOANALYSIS: THUNDERSHOWERS HAVE DIMINISHED LATE THIS
EVENING THANKS TO THE LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING & EASTERLY
SURFACE FLOW PULLING STABLE AIR INLAND FROM LAKE MICHIGAN. A
DIFFUSE SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT IS RESULTING IN CALM TO
LIGHT/VARIABLE SURFACE WINDS ACROSS THE AREA, WITH OBSERVATIONS
SUGGESTING THAT DECOUPLING OF THE BOUNDARY LAYER IS IN-PROGRESS
ACROSS SOUTHERN WISCONSIN. WITH NEAR-SURFACE MOISTURE STILL
ELEVATED REGIONALLY, SAID DECOUPLING COULD RESULT IN FOG
DEVELOPMENT THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. SOME
DENSE FOG CAN'T BE RULED OUT, WITH TRENDS BEING MONITORED FOR
POSSIBLE HEADLINES THROUGH TONIGHT. SLOW DOWN, USE LOW BEAM
HEADLIGHTS, AND ALLOW FOR EXTRA FOLLOWING DISTANCE IF
ENCOUNTERING FOG ON THE ROADS. TO THE NORTHWEST OF THE AREA, A
COMPLEX OF THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUES FROM EAU CLAIRE SOUTHWEST
TOWARD THE ALBERT LEA, MN VICINITY. THESE STORMS WILL CONTINUE
TO DRIFT SOUTH TOWARD THE IOWA-MINNESOTA BORDER NEAR-TERM,
THOUGH STABLE AIR WILL IMPEDE ANY EASTWARD PROGRESS INTO
SOUTHERN WISCONSIN. A FEW SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE WEST OF MADISON
SUNDAY AFTERNOON. APART FROM AN ISOLATED FLASH OF LIGHTNING &
CLAP OF THUNDER, HAZARDS AREN'T EXPECTED IN ANY SHOWERS THAT
DEVELOP SUNDAY AFTERNOON.
REST OF OVERNIGHT: WILL BE MONITORING VISIBILITY TRENDS AS
AREAS OF FOG ATTEMPT TO FILL IN ACROSS SOUTHERN WISCONSIN. CAN'T
RULE OUT SOME AREAS OF LOCALLY DENSE FOG GIVEN LIGHT WINDS IN
PLACE REGIONALLY & AN INVERSION ABOVE THE BOUNDARY LAYER. IF
NECESSARY, WILL ADDRESS ANY SUCH AREAS OF DENSE FOG WITH
APPROPRIATE HEADLINES. CAN'T ENTIRELY RULE OUT AN ISOLATED
SHOWER IN FAR SOUTHEAST WISCONSIN THROUGH DAYBREAK AS A REMNANT
SHORTWAVE/MCV FROM AFTERNOON STORMS LINGERS OVER SOUTHERN LAKE
MICHIGAN. APART FROM THE HRRR, MOST HIGH-RES GUIDANCE POINTS
TOWARD DRY CONDITIONS IN THE VICINITY OF THIS FEATURE. HAVE THUS
CAPPED PRECIP PROBABILITIES BELOW 15%/MENTIONABLE THRESHOLDS IN
THE EVENING FORECAST, BUT WILL BE MONITORING FOR POSSIBLE
ADJUSTMENTS IN THE EVENT THAT THE HRRR SOLUTION VERIFIES.
QUIGLEY
LONG TERM
ISSUED 1100 PM CDT SAT JUL 4 2026
SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY:
A QUIETER WEATHER PATTERN WILL SETTLE OVER THE REGION EARLY IN
THE WEEK AS A WESTERN CONUS RIDGE BUILDS, WITH AN EASTERN CONUS
TROUGH. NESTLED BETWEEN THESE TWO FEATURES, WE WILL EXPERIENCE
NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT. WILL NEED TO MONITOR FOR OCCASIONAL
PASSING WAVES EMBEDDED IN THIS NORTHWEST FLOW, BUT THERE WILL BE
MORE DRY TIME THAN ACTIVE TIME NEXT WEEK.
OVERALL EXPECT DEWPOINTS TO LOWER A BIT, TRENDING A BIT MORE
COMFORTABLE THAN THE PAST WEEK. LOWS WILL BE IN THE 60S AND
HIGHS IN THE LOW/MID 80S. A SIGNAL IS STARTING TO HONE IN ON
BETTER RAIN CHANCES LATER WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY.
LOOKING A BIT LONGER TERM, THE GEFS SUPPORTS KEEPING THIS
WESTERN RIDGE/EASTERN TROUGH PATTERN INTO NEXT WEEKEND AND
BEYOND.
GAGAN
AVIATION
ISSUED 452 AM CDT SUN JUL 5 2026
THERE REMAINS A GOOD AMOUNT OF MIDDLE TO HIGH CLOUDS ACROSS THE
AREA EARLY THIS MORNING, WHICH MAY BE LIMITING FOG FORMATION TO
MAINLY LOW LYING AREAS. WILL KEEP 3 TO 5 MILE FOG PREVAILING OR
A TEMPO GROUP IN TAFS FOR AREA TERMINALS UNTIL THE MIDDLE
MORNING HOURS, WHEN NORTHEAST WINDS BEGIN TO PICK UP. MAY SEE
PATCHY DENSE FOG IN LOW LYING AREAS, MAINLY TOWARD MADISON AND
JANESVILLE TERMINALS. NOT SURE THE FOG WILL BECOME MORE
WIDESPREAD WITH THE CLOUDS IN THE AREA.
IN ADDITION, SCATTERED SHOWERS OVER SOUTHERN LAKE MICHIGAN MAY
CONTINUE TO ROTATE INTO MILWAUKEE AND KENOSHA TERMINALS THIS
MORNING. THERE MAY BE AN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM AS WELL IN THIS
AREA. OTHERWISE, THE MIDDLE TO HIGH CLOUDS SHOULD LINGER INTO
THE MORNING AND EARLY AFTERNOON, BEFORE BECOMING MORE SCATTERED
LATER IN THE DAY.
THERE IS A SMALL CHANCE FOR A SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM THIS
AFTERNOON MAINLY ALONG AND WEST OF INTERSTATE 90. LEFT MENTION
OUT OF MADISON AND JANESVILLE TERMINALS FOR NOW. MODEST
NORTHEAST WINDS ARE ANTICIPATED TODAY ACROSS THE AREA, WITH SOME
GUSTS TO 15 TO 20 KNOTS FOR TERMINALS NEAR THE LAKE.
WINDS WILL BECOME LIGHT TONIGHT AND REMAIN NORTHEASTERLY, WITH
CLOUDS CLEARING OUT. THERE MAY BE PATCHY FOG AGAIN LATER
TONIGHT IN LOW LYING AREAS AND IN THE WISCONSIN RIVER VALLEY.
WOOD
MARINE
ISSUED 452 AM CDT SUN JUL 5 2026
HIGH PRESSURE AROUND 30.2 INCHES NORTHEAST OF THE REGION WILL
REMAIN IN PLACE THROUGH MONDAY. WEAK LOW PRESSURE AROUND 29.9
INCHES WILL SLOWLY MOVE EAST ACROSS INDIANA INTO OHIO DURING
THIS TIME. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS ARE
EXPECTED OVER MAINLY THE FAR SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF LAKE MICHIGAN
TODAY INTO EARLY THIS EVENING. INCREASING NORTH TO NORTHEAST
WINDS ARE EXPECTED AS WELL TODAY, LINGERING TONIGHT INTO MONDAY.
AREAS OF DENSE FOG SHOULD LINGER INTO THE MIDDLE MORNING HOURS
ACROSS CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE LAKE, WHERE A DENSE
FOG ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT. THERE IS AN EXPECTATION THAT THE FOG
WILL DIMINISH BY THE MIDDLE MORNING HOURS, WITH INCREASING NORTH
TO NORTHEAST WINDS.
HIGH PRESSURE AROUND 30.0 INCHES WILL THEN SHIFT SOUTHEAST
ACROSS THE REGION MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY, WITH LIGHTER WINDS.
SOUTHWEST WINDS SHOULD INCREASE WEDNESDAY, AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT
MOVING TOWARD THE REGION.
WOOD
MKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
WI...NONE.
LM...NONE.
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