056
FXUS63 KMKX 291153 AAA
AFDMKX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MILWAUKEE/SULLIVAN WI
653 AM CDT SAT AUG 29 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- SHOWERS ARE LIKELY AT TIMES TODAY INTO TONIGHT WITH SLIGHT
CHANCES FOR THUNDERSTORMS LATER TODAY AND TONIGHT.
- BECOMING VERY WARM AND HUMID SUNDAY AND PERSISTING MUCH OF
NEXT WEEK. THERE WILL BE STORM CHANCES AT TIMES THROUGH AT
LEAST THE FIRST HALF OF NEXT WEEK.
- A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY MAY BE NEEDED LATE TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY
MORNING, PARTICULARLY NORTH OF NORTH POINT LIGHTHOUSE. A
BEACH HAZARD STATEMENT MAY ALSO BE NEEDED FOR SHEBOYGAN AND
OZAUKEE COUNTIES.
UPDATE
ISSUED 653 AM CDT SAT AUG 29 2026
WIDESPREAD RAINFALL TO THE WEST CONTINUES TO APPROACH THE
FORECAST AREA EARLY THIS MORNING. THIS RAIN, WHICH IS LARGELY
ASSOCIATED WITH STRONG MOISTURE AND ADVECTION AND WARM AIR
ADVECTION ALOFT, IS EXPECTED TO PUSH THROUGH SOUTHERN WISCONSIN
THIS MORNING INTO EARLY AFTERNOON. MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW A LOT
OF DRY AIR BELOW 700 MB, BUT SHOULD BE ENOUGH FORCING AND
MOISTURE OVERALL FOR RAIN TO REACH THE GROUND. PRECIP CHANCES
WERE THUS BUMPED UP THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE DAY. THE RAIN
AND CLOUDS WILL ALSO KEEP TEMPS FROM WARMING MUCH TODAY, SO ALSO
NUDGED HIGHS DOWNWARD.
DDV
SHORT TERM
ISSUED 1101 PM CDT FRI AUG 28 2026
TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY:
SKIES HAVE MOMENTARILY CLEARED OVER SRN WI BUT CIRRUS CLOUDS
UPSTREAM WILL MOVE SWD INTO SRN WI DURING THE OVERNIGHT. LGT
SLY WINDS WILL PREVAIL AT TIMES THROUGH THE NIGHT AS THE
PRESSURE GRADIENT INCREASES SLIGHTLY DUE TO A WAVE OF LOW
PRESSURE MOVING EWD ACROSS THE NRN GREAT PLAINS. DO NOT EXPECT
ANY ORGANIZED AREAS OF FOG TO FORM.
FOR SATURDAY THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH CURRENTLY OVER ND WILL ROUND
THE EWD MOVING UPPER RIDGE AND MOVE ACROSS WI FROM LATE SAT AM
THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. A WELL ORGANIZED 700 MB BAROCLINIC ZONE
WILL ACCOMPANY THIS FEATURE WITH FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOWING
SUFFICIENT MOISTURE AND SATURATION FOR SHOWERS. PWATS WILL
INCREASE TO 1.5-1.7 INCHES DURING THE AFTERNOON, BUT MID LEVEL
LAPSE RATES WILL REMAIN POOR, INHIBITING MOST STORM DEVELOPMENT.
RAIN CHANCES OF 60-80 PERCENT ARE FORECAST ALONG AND NORTH OF A
LINE FROM DODGEVILLE TO MADISON TO MEQUON BUT STILL 40-50
PERCENT CHANCES TO THE SOUTH.
THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL MOVE AWAY SAT EVENING BUT A SWLY 850
MB JET AROUND 35-40 KTS WILL VEER SLIGHTLY FROM CENTRAL WI INTO
SRN WI THROUGH THE NIGHT. THE WARM, MOIST ADVECTION WILL
PERSIST AND SUPPORT RAIN CHANCES OF 40-60 PERCENT OVER ERN WI
WITH LESSER CHANCES OVER SOUTH CENTRAL WI. ELEVATED CAPE WILL
BEGIN TO GRADUALLY CLIMB THROUGH THE NIGHT AS STEEPER MID LEVEL
LAPSE RATES ARRIVE. THE LOW LEVEL JET AND ASSOCIATED THETAE
ADVECTION WILL STILL SUPPORT SCT SHOWERS AND STORMS SUN AM, BUT
MID LEVEL CAPPING WILL THEN REDUCE OR COMPLETELY INHIBIT SHOWERS
AND STORMS FOR A TIME SUN AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
THE CLOUDS AND INTERMITTENT SHOWERS WILL KEEP TEMPS DOWN A BIT
ON SAT, BUT THE ARRIVAL OF A WARM FRONT LATE SAT NT AND SUN WILL
BOOST HIGH TEMPS INTO THE MIDDLE 80S WITH DEWPOINTS APPROACHING
70F FOR SUN AFTERNOON.
GEHRING
LONG TERM
ISSUED 1101 PM CDT FRI AUG 28 2026
SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY:
A BROAD BUT LOW AMPLITUDE UPPER RIDGE WILL PREVAIL OVER THE
CENTRAL AND SRN USA THROUGH MID WEEK WITH SRN WI ON THE NRN
PERIPHERY OF THE FLAT RIDGE. A SWLY LOW LEVEL JET WILL RESIDE IN
THE AREA FROM SUN NT-TUE NT, BUT THE PERSISTENT MOISTURE
TRANSPORT AND WEAK WARM ADVECTION WILL BE OFFSET BY WARM MID
LEVEL TEMPERATURES. THUS SHOWER AND STORMS CHANCES WILL RANGE
FROM 20-40 PERCENT AT TIMES, BUT A MORE ORGANIZED AREA OF
SHOWERS AND STORMS MAY DEVELOP LATE TUE NT WITH THE PASSAGE OF A
WEAK CANADIAN COLD FRONT. CANNOT RULE OUT SOME STRONG OR SEVERE
STORMS AS MUCAPE WILL RISE TO 2000 J/KG MON-TUE WITH MDT DEEP
LAYER SHEAR IN PLACE. VERY WARM AND HUMID CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED THROUGH WED THEN LESSENING FOR THU-FRI AS THE UPPER
RIDGE RETROGRADES TOWARD THE GREAT PLAINS AND SFC RIDGING BUILDS
SOUTH FROM CANADA.
GEHRING
AVIATION
ISSUED 653 AM CDT SAT AUG 29 2026
CONFIDENCE CONTINUES TO INCREASE IN A PERIOD OF WIDESPREAD
RAINFALL THIS MORNING INTO EARLY AFTERNOON. INSTABILITY WILL BE
LIMITED THROUGH THE AFTERNOON HOURS, SO KEPT THUNDER LARGELY OUT
OF THE FORECAST. DRY AIR BELOW 700 MB SHOULD RESULT IN CEILINGS
STAYING VFR THROUGH THE DAY, THOUGH VISIBILITIES COULD DIP
BELOW 6SM AT TIMES WITH THE RAINFALL. THE RAIN WILL WIND DOWN
WEST TO EAST MID TO LATE AFTERNOON, WITH ISOLATED TO SCATTERED
SHOWERS THEN POSSIBLE OVERNIGHT INTO SUNDAY. A PERIOD OF LOW
LEVEL WIND SHEAR IS LIKELY TONIGHT INTO EARLY SUNDAY, AS THE LOW
LEVEL JET MOVES OVERHEAD. SOUTHERLY SURFACE WINDS 5 TO 10 KNOTS
THROUGH TONIGHT WILL PICK UP A BIT FROM THE SOUTHWEST ON
SUNDAY.
DDV
MARINE
ISSUED 1101 PM CDT FRI AUG 28 2026
HIGH PRESSURE AROUND 30.1 INCHES WILL GRADUALLY MOVE EAST OF THE
LOWER GREAT LAKES ON SATURDAY, WHILE LOW PRESSURE DEEPENS TO
AROUND 29.6 INCHES IN THE CENTRAL GREAT PLAINS. THIS WILL SUPPORT
MODEST TO BREEZY SOUTHERLY WINDS FROM SATURDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH
MONDAY AS THE LOW WILL REMAIN WELL TO THE WEST. SCATTERED
THUNDERSTORMS WILL OCCUR AT TIMES FROM SATURDAY NIGHT INTO NEXT
WEEK. A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL FINALLY ARRIVE LATE TUESDAY NIGHT AND
WEDNESDAY WITH LIGHT NORTHERLY WINDS EVENTUALLY TAKING HOLD.
A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY MAY BE NEEDED NORTH OF NORTH POINT
LIGHTHOUSE LATE SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY IF WAVES BUILD TO 3 TO
5 FEET.
GEHRING
MKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
WI...NONE.
LM...NONE.
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