363  
FXUS63 KMKX 240927  
AFDMKX  
 
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION  
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MILWAUKEE/SULLIVAN WI  
327 AM CST TUE NOV 24 2020  
   
SHORT TERM
 
 
(ISSUED 319 AM CST TUE NOV 24 2020)  
 
TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY:  
 
BAND OF SNOW ALONG THE LEADING EDGE OF LOW-LEVEL WAA AND THE  
SWATH OF LOW-LEVEL FRONTOGENESIS WILL BEGIN TO PUSH INTO SOUTHERN  
WI OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS. OBSERVATION UPSTREAM IN IA/IL HAVE  
INDICATED HEAVY WET SNOW OCCURING AND REDUCING VISIBILITY. CAN  
EXPECT SIMILAR CONDITIONS TO OCCUR AS THE BAND PUSHES ACROSS THE  
AREA DURING THE MORNING COMMUTE. WITH TEMPS ACROSS THE AREA  
FLIRTING WITH FREEZING, ONE OR TWO DEGREE DIFFERENCE CAN IMPACT  
SNOWFALL AMOUNTS. NONETHELESS, STILL LOOKING AT 2-4 INCHES FOR  
AREAS WEST OF I-90 WHILE AREAS EAST OF I-90 MORE LIKELY TO SEE 1-2  
INCHES WITH LOCATIONS CLOSER TO THE LAKE SEEING LESS THAN AN INCH  
GIVEN THE SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW AND INFLUENCE OF THE WARMER LAKE ON  
TEMPS.  
 
HOWEVER, THE MAIN CONCERN CONTINUES TO BE THE SNOW'S IMPACT ON  
THE MORNING COMMUTE. EXPECTING SLUSHY/SLIPPERY ROAD CONDITIONS AND  
REDUCED VISIBILITY AT TIMES WITH THE SNOW. THUS, HAVE EXPANDED  
THE WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY EAST TO INCLUDE ALL INLAND COUNTIES OF  
OUR CWA. BE SURE TO USE CAUTION IF TRAVELING THIS MORNING.  
 
SNOW IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE MORNING AND LINGER A BIT  
LONGER INTO THE AFTERNOON ACROSS CENTRAL WI CONTRIBUTING TO HIGHER  
AMOUNTS AROUND THE DELLS. HI RES MODELS HINT THAT WE COULD SEE A BIT  
OF A LULL BEHIND THE INITIAL SURGE OF PRECIP AS THE BAND OF  
FRONTOGENESIS AND SWATH OF WAA LIFTS NORTH ACROSS WI INTO THE  
AFTERNOON. HOWEVER, THIS WILL ALSO BRING IN WARMER TEMPS, WHICH WILL  
RESULT IN THE MORNING SNOW TRANSITIONING OVER TO SNOW/RAIN MIX AND  
THEN TO ALL RAIN. RAIN CHANCES WILL CONTINUE ACROSS WI OVERNIGHT AND  
INTO WEDNESDAY AS THE LOW LIFTS EAST-NORTHEAST INTO CENTRAL IL.  
RAIN CHANCES ARE THEN EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY DIMINISH THROUGH THE  
DAY ON WEDNESDAY AS THE SYSTEM PUSHES EAST AND AN UPPER-LEVEL  
RIDGING BUILDS INTO THE REGION.  
 
WAGNER  
 

 
   
LONG TERM
 
 
(ISSUED 319 AM CST TUE NOV 24 2020)  
 
WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY:  
 
LINGERING LIGHT PRECIPITATION SHOULD END FAIRLY QUICKLY WEDNESDAY  
EVENING AS WEAKENING LOW PRESSURE MOVES GRADUALLY NORTHEAST ACROSS  
THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES. LOW LEVEL THERMAL PROFILE CONTINUES TO  
FAVOR ALL LIQUID PRECIPITATION AS IT WINDS DOWN. INCREASING LOW  
LEVEL WINDS MAY EVENTUALLY MIX ENOUGH DRIER AIR INTO THE LOW  
LEVELS TO BRING AT LEAST PARTIAL CLEARING TO SOUTHERN WI LATER ON  
THURSDAY. TEMPERATURES CONTINUE TO LOOK ABOVE NORMAL FOR LATE  
NOVEMBER ON THANKSGIVING AS WELL.  
 
THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY:  
 
MEDIUM RANGE GUIDANCE IN REASONABLE AGREEMENT ON A SHORT WAVE  
TROF AND COLD FRONT MOVING THROUGH SOUTHERN WI LATE THURSDAY NIGHT  
INTO FRIDAY. HOWEVER MOISTURE AT THIS TIME LOOKS SPARSE, SO NO  
SIGNIFICANT PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED. FOR LATE IN THE WEEKEND,  
THE GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO FLIP-FLOP AND IS NOW SHOWING MORE  
PHASING OF THE NORTHERN AND SOUTHERN STREAMS OCCURING OVER THE  
EASTERN CONUS SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY AS MAINLY SURGE OF COLDER,  
DRIER AIR SETTLES OVER WISCONSIN. WL CONTINUE MAINLY DRY FORECAST  
FOR THE LATER PERIODS WITH TREND TOWARD COLDER TEMPERATURES BY  
EARLY NEXT WEEK.  
 
KAVINSKY  
 

 
   
AVIATION
 
 
(ISSUED 319 AM CST TUE NOV 24 2020)  
 
LOWER CEILINGS WILL MOVE IN THIS MORNING AS SNOW SPREADS FROM THE  
SOUTHWEST TO THE NORTHEAST. THE HEAVY WET SNOW WILL CONTINUE THROUGH  
THE MORNING AND BRING LOWER VISIBILITY AS WELL. WILL LIKELY SEE LOW-  
END MVFR TO IFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. THEN CAN EXPECT  
SNOW TO TRANSITION TO RAIN THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AND INTO THE  
EVENING WITH LOWER CEILINGS AND VISIBILITY CONTINUING, ESPECIALLY  
SINCE FOG IS LIKELY TO DEVELOP.  
 
WAGNER  
 

 
   
MARINE
 
 
(ISSUED 319 AM CST TUE NOV 24 2020)  
 
UNSETTLED WEATHER IS EXPECTED TODAY AND EARLY WEDNESDAY AS A LOW  
WORKS ITS WAY ACROSS THE REGION BRINGING BREEZY CONDITIONS AND  
INCREASE PRECIP. THUS, A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT FOR THIS  
AFTERNOON INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING. QUIETER MARINE CONDITIONS ARE  
EXPECTED FOR THE LATER HALF OF THE WEEK AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS  
ACROSS THE REGION.  
 
WAGNER  
 

 
   
MKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
 
 
WI...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY...WIZ046-WIZ047-WIZ051-WIZ056-WIZ057-  
WIZ058-WIZ059-WIZ062-WIZ063-WIZ064-WIZ065-WIZ067-WIZ068-  
WIZ069-WIZ070 UNTIL NOON TUESDAY.  
 
LM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY...LMZ643-LMZ644-LMZ645-LMZ646...9 AM  
TUESDAY TO 6 AM WEDNESDAY.  
 

 
 

 
 
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