547
FXUS63 KMKX 090945
AFDMKX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MILWAUKEE/SULLIVAN WI
445 AM CDT FRI OCT 9 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- CHANCES (~20-50%) FOR SHOWERS TODAY. PEAK PRECIP POTENTIAL IS
BETWEEN 10 AM & 6 PM SOUTH & WEST OF I-41.
- HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO BE ABOVE NORMAL INTO
FRIDAY, AND WELL ABOVE NORMAL THIS WEEKEND.
UPDATE
ISSUED 445 AM CDT FRI OCT 9 2026
ELONGATED NORTH-SOUTH SURFACE RIDGE IS MOVING EAST TOWARD LAKES
HURON & ERIE EARLY THIS MORNING. A WEAK AREA OF LOW PRESSURE IS
STAGNATING JUST TO THE WEST OF SIOUX CITY, IOWA, AND IS EXPECTED
TO REMAIN OVER THE SAME GENERAL VICINITY AS IT WASHES OUT LATER
THIS MORNING. LOW HAS DEVELOPED IN INTERACTION WITH A SUBTLE
SHORTWAVE ALONG THE SOUTH DAKOTA-NEBRASKA BORDER, WITH THE
FEATURE EXPECTED TO DRIFT SOUTH & EAST TOWARD THE WISCONSIN-
ILLINOIS BORDER THROUGH TODAY. ELEVATED WARM ADVECTION & LOW
LEVEL JET DYNAMICS HAVE TRIGGERED SHOWERS & STORMS TO THE
NORTHEAST OF THE SURFACE LOW/OVER CENTRAL IOWA. ACTIVITY IS
EXPECTED TO CONTINUE NUDGING EAST-SOUTHEAST WITH THE SUBTLE
SHORTWAVE DYNAMICS ALOFT THIS MORNING, WITH CHANCES FOR
SCATTERED SHOWERS ENTERING THE FORECAST LOCALLY AFTER 10 AM.
EXPECT CHANCES TO LINGER THROUGH THE AFTERNOON HOURS,
PARTICULARLY IN CLOSEST PROXIMITY TO THE PASSING SHORTWAVE
(SOUTH & WEST OF I-41 IN SOUTHERN WISCONSIN). FORECAST SOUNDINGS
HINT AT SOME WEAK (~100 J/KG OR LESS) MUCAPE DURING THE WINDOW
OF PRECIP POTENTIAL, SO CAN'T RULE OUT A FEW RUMBLES OF THUNDER
IN ANY SCATTERED SHOWERS. NOT EXPECTING STRONG/SEVERE HAZARDS IN
ANY SHOWER/THUNDERSHOWER ACTIVITY. PRECIP CHANCES SHOULD WANE BY
EARLY EVENING (~6 PM) AS UPPER SUPPORT MOVES AWAY FROM THE
REGION.
QUIGLEY
SHORT TERM
ISSUED 1158 PM CDT THU OCT 8 2026
TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT:
AN AREA OF MIDDLE TO HIGH CLOUDS WILL CONTINUE TO PUSH
SOUTHEAST INTO THE AREA OVERNIGHT. MOST OF THE SHOWERS AND
STORMS OVER IOWA SHOULD REMAIN TO THE SOUTHWEST OF THE AREA AS
WELL OVERNIGHT. LOWS TONIGHT SHOULD DROP INTO THE MIDDLE 40S
NORTH AND UPPER 40S SOUTH.
MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW AN AREA OF FOCUSED WARM AIR ADVECTION
WITH THE NOSE OF THE LOW LEVEL JET MOVING ACROSS FAR SOUTHERN
WISCONSIN AND NORTHERN ILLINOIS MAINLY LATER FRIDAY MORNING INTO
THE AFTERNOON. THIS SHOULD COMBINE WITH SOME MOISTURE IN THE
LOW TO MIDDLE LEVELS PER FORECAST SOUNDINGS TO BRING CHANCES (20
TO 60 PERCENT) FOR SHOWERS, HIGHEST ACROSS AREAS NEAR THE
ILLINOIS BORDER. A FEW THUNDERSTORMS MAY OCCUR, WITH ELEVATED
CAPE PERHAPS 250 TO 500 J/KG. DESPITE THE SHOWERS AND CLOUDS,
HIGHS SHOULD STILL REACH THE UPPER 60S EAST TO AROUND 70 INLAND
WITH SOUTHEAST WINDS. THE WARM FRONT WILL THEN PUSH NORTHEAST
THROUGH THE AREA FRIDAY NIGHT, WITH INCREASING SOUTH WINDS
DEVELOPING.
WOOD
LONG TERM
ISSUED 1158 PM CDT THU OCT 8 2026
SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY:
THE GUSTY SOUTH WINDS WILL CONTINUE INTO SATURDAY, WITHIN A
TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT. THIS SHOULD BRING VERY WARM
TEMPERATURES INTO THE AREA, WITH 925 MB TEMPERATURES RISING TO
20 TO 21 DEGREES CELSIUS. HIGHS MAY REACH TO AROUND 80 DEGREES
OR INTO THE LOWER 80S. RECORD HIGHS ARE 84 DEGREES FOR
MILWAUKEE AND MADISON, SO THOSE MAY BE APPROACHED.
ONE THING TO WATCH WILL BE PERHAPS A SOUTH SOUTHEAST LAKE
BREEZE DEVELOPING FOR AREAS NEAR THE LAKESHORE BY MIDDAY AND
INTO THE AFTERNOON. THIS MAY HOLD DOWN HIGHS A BIT IN THOSE
AREAS. ALSO, THE CLOUDS ASSOCIATED WITH THE REMNANTS OF THE
TROPICAL CYCLONE MAY PUSH INTO SOUTHEAST WISCONSIN SATURDAY
AFTERNOON, WHICH MAY HOLD DOWN HIGHS A BIT THERE.
ANY RAIN WITH THE TROPICAL CYCLONE SHOULD REMAIN SOUTHEAST OF
THE AREA SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY. THERE WILL BE CLOUDS FROM
THIS SYSTEM THAT LINGER SATURDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY SUNDAY IN
SOUTHEAST PARTS OF THE AREA. SUNDAY STILL LOOKS LIKE A WARM DAY,
WITH HIGHS WELL INTO THE 70S INLAND. ONSHORE WINDS SHOULD KEEP
EASTERN AREAS IN THE UPPER 60S TO LOWER 70S.
THERE STILL APPEARS TO BE A COLD FRONT THAT SHIFTS SOUTHEAST
THROUGH THE AREA MONDAY EVENING. ENSEMBLE MEMBERS ARE FAIRLY
WET MONDAY NIGHT, SO KEPT 20 TO 50 PERCENT CHANCES FOR SHOWERS
GOING. SOME THUNDERSTORMS MAY OCCUR AS WELL, AS THE AIRMASS MAY
BE SOMEWHAT UNSTABLE AHEAD OF THE FRONT.
HIGH PRESSURE BEHIND THIS SYSTEM WITH SOME COLD AIR ADVECTION
SHOULD BRING MORE SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES BY THE MIDDLE OF NEXT
WEEK. A MORE ORGANIZED LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVING NORTHEAST
THROUGH THE REGION LATER IN THE WEEK MAY BRING A BETTER CHANCE
FOR SHOWERS AND PERHAPS SOME STORMS.
WOOD
AVIATION
ISSUED 445 AM CDT FRI OCT 9 2026
VFR FLIGHT CATEGORIES ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE
DURATION OF THE PERIOD ACROSS SOUTHERN WISCONSIN. SCT TO BKN
MID-LEVEL CLOUDS WILL LINGER THROUGH THE MAJORITY OF THE DAY AS
A WEAK DISTURBANCE APPROACHES FROM THE NORTHERN PLAINS. COULD
SEE SCATTERED SHRA & ISOLATED TSRA AHEAD OF THE DISTURBANCE,
PARTICULARLY DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS NEAR THE WISCONSIN-
ILLINOIS BORDER. HAVE ADJUSTED PRECIP MENTIONS IN THE COMING 06Z
FORECAST TO REFLECT WHERE CONFIDENCE IN SHRA IS HIGHEST. PROB30
GROUPS THUS CONTINUE AT MSN AND ENW, WITH TEMPO GROUPS BEING
INSERTED AT JVL WHERE OVERALL SHRA CONFIDENCE IS GREATEST. HAVE
REMOVED MENTIONS AT MKE AND UES, WHERE LINGERING HIGH PRESSURE
INFLUENCES MAY IMPEDE NORTHEAST PROGRESS OF PRECIP. WILL
CONTINUE TO EVALUATE FOR CHANGES AS RADAR TRENDS DICTATE THROUGH
TODAY. SKIES WILL CLEAR LATER THIS EVENING, WITH LLWS POSSIBLE
AT ALL TERMINALS NEAR & AFTER MIDNIGHT.
QUIGLEY
MARINE
ISSUED 1158 PM CDT THU OCT 8 2026
HIGH PRESSURE AROUND 30.1 INCHES WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION
OVERNIGHT. WINDS WILL BECOME SOUTHEAST ON FRIDAY AND SOUTH
FRIDAY NIGHT, AS THE HIGH MOVES TO THE EAST AND LOW PRESSURE
AROUND 29.2 INCHES DEVELOPS THE NORTHERN PLAINS. THE TIGHT
PRESSURE GRADIENT OVER LAKE MICHIGAN WILL PRODUCE BREEZY
SOUTHERLY WINDS UP TO 30 KNOTS FROM FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY
MORNING. A FEW GALE FORCE GUSTS MAY OCCUR IN THE NORTHERN HALF
OF THE LAKE SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY MAY BE NEEDED FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY
MORNING, ESPECIALLY FOR AREAS NORTH OF PORT WASHINGTON.
LIGHTER WINDS ARE EXPECTED MONDAY, AS A WEAK LOW PRESSURE
TROUGH AROUND 29.7 INCHES SLOWLY MOVES FROM MINNESOTA TO
WISCONSIN. LOOK FOR GUSTY NORTHWEST TO NORTH WINDS TO DEVELOP
MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY AFTER THE PASSAGE OF A COLD FRONT, AS
HIGH PRESSURE AROUND 30.1 INCHES BUILDS INTO THE UPPER MIDWEST.
WINDS AND WAVES MAY REACH SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY LEVELS TUESDAY
INTO TUESDAY NIGHT FOR THE NEARSHORE WATERS.
WOOD
MKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
WI...NONE.
LM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY...LMZ643...1 AM SATURDAY TO 7 AM SUNDAY.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY...LMZ644...1 AM SATURDAY TO 1 AM SUNDAY.
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