082
FXUS63 KMPX 210410
AFDMPX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
1110 PM CDT WED OCT 20 2021
UPDATED FOR 06Z AVIATION DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 1107 PM CDT WED OCT 20 2021
SHORT TERM
(THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 225 PM CDT WED OCT 20 2021
AN ARC OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS NORTHERN SD INTO
CENTRAL/EASTERN MN AND WESTERN WI IS BECOMING A DEFORMATION BAND
WHILE A DRY SLOT ADVANCES NORTH TOWARD ST. CLOUD AND ALEXANDRIA. A
FEW OF THE STORMS ON THE WARMER SIDE OF THE SYSTEM (EASTERN MN) HAVE
BEEN STRONG WITH SOME SMALL HAIL, BUT HAVE REMAINED WELL BELOW SEVERE
LIMITS. THE DRY SLOT WILL FILL IN WITH ADDITIONAL SHOWERS AS THE LOW
CONTINUES EAST ACROSS SOUTHERN MN. MAINTAINED 80-100% POPS THROUGH
THE EVENING BEFORE THE SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED TO END FROM WEST TO EAST
OVERNIGHT.
CLOUDS WILL LINGER BEHIND THE SHOWERS FOR SEVERAL HOURS, BUT MID
LEVEL RIDGING AND MUCH DRIER AIR WILL BRING THE BACK EDGE OF THE
LOW CLOUD COVER THROUGH THE REGION THURSDAY MORNING. SCATTERED HIGH
CLOUDS COULD CONTINUE FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE SHORT TERM PERIOD.
A SURFACE RIDGE AXIS STRETCHING FROM CENTRAL CANADA DOWN INTO THE
LOWER MISSOURI RIVER VALLEY WILL BUILD IN THURSDAY NIGHT. MOSTLY
CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS SHOULD LEAD TO A WIDESPREAD FREEZE EARLY
FRIDAY MORNING, WHICH WILL END THE GROWING SEASON.
LONG TERM
(FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 225 PM CDT WED OCT 20 2021
THE SURFACE RIDGE WILL REMAIN NEARLY STATIONARY INTO SATURDAY,
CONTINUING THE COOLER TREND. RAIN CHANCES WILL RETURN SUNDAY WITH A
SYSTEM PASSING WELL TO THE SOUTH ACROSS MISSOURI. THE ACTIVE PATTERN
WILL CONTINUE THROUGH NEXT WEEK AS SYSTEM AFTER SYSTEM CRASHES ONTO
THE WEST COAST. A LONG WAVE TROUGH PASSING ACROSS THE ROCKIES WILL
SPAWN LOW PRESSURE OVER THE WEST CENTRAL PLAINS TUESDAY NIGHT. THE
TRACK OF THIS RESULTANT LOW HAS EXHIBITED CONSIDERABLE SPREAD OVER
THE LAST 24 HOURS. YESTERDAY, MODELS HAD PHASED THE UPPER LOW WITH
THE NORTHERN STREAM TROUGH, WHICH ALLOWED FOR A WELL-DEVELOPED
SYNOPTIC SYSTEM TRACKING TO OUR NORTHWEST. THIS PLACED THE REGION IN
THE WARM SECTOR WITH HIGHS IN THE 70S BY TUESDAY. NOW, THE SYSTEM IS
MUCH LESS PHASED WITH THE UPPER LOW CUT OFF FROM THE NORTHERN
STREAM. THE ECMWF TAKES THE SURFACE LOW EAST ACROSS THE MID SOUTH BY
WEDNESDAY EVENING AND INTO GEORGIA THURSDAY. THIS IS IN STARK
CONTRAST TO 24 HOURS AGO WHEN IT TOOK THE LOW NORTH ACROSS THE
EASTERN PLAINS AND TO HUDSON BAY AS A 970 MB LOW. I HAVE NOT SEEN A
SHIFT LIKE THAT IN QUITE SOME TIME. NEEDLESS TO SAY, CONFIDENCE WITH
THAT SYSTEM IS VERY LOW AT THIS TIME.
AVIATION
(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1107 PM CDT WED OCT 20 2021
NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES FROM THE PREVIOUS DISCUSSION. EXPECT MVFR/IFR
CONDITIONS TO CONTINUE OVERNIGHT AS A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM BRINGS
STRATUS AND PERIODS OF RAIN SHOWERS. WINDS WILL BE EASTERLY AHEAD OF
THE LOW, AND THEN TURN NORTHWESTERLY BEHIND IT. GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO
SHOW CLOUDS MOVING OUT RATHER QUICKLY THIS MORNING, SO SHOULD HAVE
VFR CONDITIONS FOR MOST OF THURSDAY THROUGH THE END OF THE TAF
PERIOD.
KMSP...
NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES FROM THE PREVIOUS DISCUSSION. EXPECT MVFR/IFR
CONDITIONS TO CONTINUE OVERNIGHT AS A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM BRINGS
STRATUS AND PERIODS OF RAIN SHOWERS. WINDS WILL BE EASTERLY AHEAD OF
THE LOW, AND THEN TURN NORTHWESTERLY BEHIND IT.VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD
RETURN BY MID-MORNING AS DRIER AIR MOVES ACROSS THE REGION.
/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/
SAT...VFR. WIND E 5-10 KTS.
SUN...CHC MVFR/SHRA. WIND E 10-15 KTS.
MON...VFR WITH MVFR/-RA POSSIBLE EARLY. WIND E AT 10G20 KTS.
MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MN...NONE.
WI...NONE.
SHORT TERM...BORGHOFF
LONG TERM...BORGHOFF
AVIATION...JRB
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.
Main Text Page