050
FXUS63 KMPX 030727
AFDMPX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
227 AM CDT SAT OCT 3 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- SCATTERED LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS MOVE THROUGH SATURDAY AFTERNOON
& EVENING, WITH MOST LOCATIONS RECEIVING AROUND 0.10".
- DRY WEATHER PERSISTS THROUGH MUCH OF NEXT WEEK ALONG WITH
ABOVE-NORMAL TEMPERATURES.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 136 PM CDT FRI OCT 2 2026
WHILE MID-LEVEL CLOUDS HAVE BEEN ENCROACHING ON OUR AREA FROM
SD, LOW-LEVEL DRY AIR HAS LARGELY KEPT ANY RAIN FROM REACHING
THE SURFACE. VIRGA WILL BE EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING
AS THE CLOUDS MOVE EAST ACROSS MN/WI, BUT DID KEEP 10% POPS IN
THE FORECAST IN CASE OF A SPRINKLE. LOWS TONIGHT WILL NOT BE
NEARLY AS COOL AS LAST NIGHT, OWING TO THE GREATER CLOUD COVER
AND AN INCOMING WARMER AIR MASS AHEAD OF A SHORTWAVE. 40S ARE
EXPECTED FOR MOST PLACES EXCEPT FOR OUR FAR EASTERN WI COUNTIES
WHERE MID TO UPPER 30S ARE MORE LIKELY. HIGHS SATURDAY WILL BE A
FEW DEGREES WARMER THAN TODAY, THOUGH CLOUD COVER WILL INCREASE
AGAIN IN THE AFTERNOON AS THE AFOREMENTIONED SHORTWAVE
APPROACHES. CAMS FAVOR AN AREA OF SHOWERS DEVELOPING FROM
CENTRAL TO CENTRAL TO SOUTHERN MN DURING THE EARLY TO MID
AFTERNOON, WHICH THEN TRAVELS EAST INTO WI BY EVENING. RAINFALL
AMOUNTS CURRENTLY DON'T LOOK TO BE TOO HEAVY, THOUGH 0.1- 0.2"
IS A POSSIBILITY. A LOCALIZED AREA COULD POTENTIALLY RECEIVE
MORE IF A STRAY THUNDERSTORM OCCURS. IF YOU HAVE OUTDOOR
ACTIVITIES PLANNED ON SATURDAY, IT WOULD BE A GOOD IDEA TO HAVE
AN UMBRELLA OR SHELTER TO DODGE THE RAIN. WINDS WILL ALSO BE
BREEZY SATURDAY AFTERNOON OUT OF THE SOUTH AS A LLJ ADVANCES
AHEAD OF THE MID-LEVEL TROUGH. GUSTS WILL GENERALLY REACH 25-30
MPH ACROSS MN WITH ISOLATED GUSTS OF 35+ MPH POSSIBLE NEAR THE
BUFFALO RIDGE. THE WINDS WILL TURN NORTHWESTERLY AND SLOW AS WE
GO INTO SATURDAY NIGHT.
AFTER THE RAIN AND SHORTWAVE MOVES EAST DURING SATURDAY NIGHT,
THE FORECAST LOOKS VERY QUIET FOR MOST OF NEXT WEEK. LONG-
RANGE DETERMINISTIC AND ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE SHOWS THE UPPER-LEVEL
JETSTREAM REMAINING MAINLY OFF TO OUR NORTH. THIS SHOULD ALLOW
ANY SHORTWAVES AND THEIR FORCING TO PASS WELL AWAY FROM OUR CWA,
GREATLY LIMITING OUR CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION. TEMPERATURES
WILL SLIGHTLY COOL SUNDAY AND MONDAY FOLLOWING A COLD FRONTAL
PASSAGE SATURDAY NIGHT. HIGHS DURING THIS TIME ARE FORECAST TO
BE IN THE LOW TO MID 60S. THE BEST CHANCE FOR FROST IN THE
FORECAST PERIOD WILL BE SUNDAY NIGHT WHEN LOWS COULD DIP INTO
THE MID 30S IN EASTERN MN AND NORTHWEST WI. AFTERWARDS,
TEMPERATURES WILL WARM TO ABOVE NORMAL (HIGHS IN THE MID 60S TO
LOWER 70S) THROUGH NEXT FRIDAY AS BROAD RIDGING BUILDS OVER THE
WESTERN HALF OF THE CONUS. THE FIRST FULL WEEK OF OCTOBER LOOKS
GREAT IF YOU HAVE ANY OUTDOOR ACTIVITIES PLANNED!
AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SUNDAY/
ISSUED AT 222 AM CDT SAT OCT 3 2026
BKN/OVC MID-LEVEL CLOUD COVER CONTINUES INTO THE MORNING, WITH
SOME SCATTERING EXPECTED DURING THE DAY. BRIEF ISOLATED RAIN
SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE THIS MORNING, MAINLY ACROSS SOUTHERN
MINNESOTA BUT THE BETTER CHANCE FOR RAIN COMES THIS AFTERNOON &
EVENING. A BAND OF RAIN SHOWERS WILL SPREAD ACROSS WESTERN
MINNESOTA THROUGH EARLY TO MID AFTERNOON, & EASTERN
MINNESOTA/WESTERN WISCONSIN LATE THIS AFTERNOON & EVENING. MVFR
VISIBILITY IS LIKELY WITH THE HEAVIEST RAIN & A FEW RUMBLES OF
THUNDER CAN NOT BE RULED OUT.
GUSTY SOUTHERLY TO SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS DEVELOP AFTER SUNRISE &
PERSIST INTO MID TO LATE AFTERNOON. WIND GUSTS OVER 40 MPH ARE
POSSIBLE ACROSS SOUTHWEST MINNESOTA, BUT WILL GENERALLY RANGE
FROM 25-35 MPH ELSEWHERE.
KMSP...CAN'T RULE OUT BRIEF MVFR VISIBILITY WITH AN ISOLATED
SHOWER THIS MORNING. BEST CHANCE FOR RAIN COMES THIS AFTERNOON,
MAINLY BETWEEN 3-6 PM. MVFR VISIBILITY IS LIKELY AT TIMES ALONG
WITH LOW CHANCES FOR THUNDER.
/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/
SUN...VFR. WIND NW 5-10KTS.
MON...VFR. WIND SE 5 KTS.
TUE...VFR. WIND SW 10-15G20KTS.
MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MN...NONE.
WI...NONE.
DISCUSSION...CTG
AVIATION...ETA
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