805
FXUS63 KMPX 091155
AFDMPX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
655 AM CDT MON MAR 9 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- A SERIES OF WINTRY SYSTEMS BRING CHANCES OF RAIN AND SNOW
TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY.
- A STRONGER WINTER STORM MAY IMPACT THE REGION NEXT WEEKEND.
- THE MILD PATTERN IS COMING TO END, WITH TEMPERATURES TRENDING
CLOSER TO NORMAL BY MIDWEEK.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 224 AM CDT MON MAR 9 2026
SCATTERED MID-LEVEL CLOUDS PERSIST TO START THE WORKWEEK, A
SLIGHT DECREASE IN COVERAGE CAN BE EXPECTED THROUGH THE DAY
TODAY AS A COLD FRONT SWEEPS THROUGH. IT WILL BE DRY AND
RELATIVELY MILD TODAY IN THE 40S AND 50S, BUT COLD AIR ADVECTION
IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE INTO TUESDAY. THIS WILL CONTINUE TO
ESTABLISH A BAROCLINIC ZONE ACROSS MUCH OF THE UPPER MIDWEST
THROUGH THE WEEK. THIS COULD LEAD TO AN ACTIVE PERIOD THROUGH
THE MIDDLE OF THE MONTH. THERE IS GENERAL MODEL AGREEMENT ON
SURFACE CYCLOGENESIS TO THE SOUTH TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY,
BRINGING THE FIRST OF SEVERAL CHANCES FOR WEATHER TO THE REGION.
THIS FIRST SYSTEM TARGETS CENTRAL MINNESOTA EARLY TUESDAY IN THE
FORM OF SNOW. A HALF INCH TO MAYBE AN INCH IS EXPECTED AT BEST,
WITH THIS BEING THE WEAKEST OF THE POTENTIAL SYSTEMS THIS WEEK.
GIVEN THE NARROW NATURE OF THIS SNOW BAND, POPS REMAIN LIMITED
DUE TO LOCATION UNCERTAINTY.
TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING, STRONG FLOW ALOFT COUPLED WITH
AN AREA OF HIGHER VORTICITY WILL LEAD TO THE SECOND SYSTEM OF
THE WEEK. A SW TO NE ORIENTED BAND OF PRECIPITATION WILL
DEVELOP IN THE AFTERNOON, BEGINNING AS RAIN FOR MOST, WITH THE
EXCEPTION OF CENTRAL MINNESOTA REMAINING SNOW FOR THE ENTIRETY
OF THE EVENT. RAIN WILL TRANSITION TO SNOW FOR ALL AS THE SYSTEM
PROGRESSES INTO THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD TUESDAY. QPF HAS WAVERED A
LITTLE OVER THE LAST FEW RUNS, BUT IN GENERAL, 0.10-0.20" COULD
LEAD TO A FEW INCHES OF SNOW. THE AMOUNT OF SNOW WILL BE
DEPENDENT ON WHEN THE RAIN TO SNOW TRANSITION TAKES PLACE. THE
WEDNESDAY MORNING COMMUTE COULD BE A SLICK ONE, BUT THINGS
SHOULD BE WRAPPING UP BY THEN. WEDNESDAY WILL BE DRY AFTER THE
MORNING SNOW MOVES OUT.
LOOKING TO THURSDAY, YET ANOTHER CLIPPER SYSTEM WILL IMPACT THE
AREA. A POTENT SHORTWAVE WILL DESCEND SOUTH WITH THE RAIN/SNOW
LINE LIKELY STRADDLING THE MPX COVERAGE AREA AGAIN. CONFIDENCE
IS FAIRLY HIGH IN PRECIPITATION OCCURRING AND THE NBM HAS 60-70%
POPS, HIGHEST IN WESTERN WISCONSIN LATE THURSDAY. AT PRESENT,
MOSTLY RAIN THURSDAY DURING THE DAY IS FORECAST TO TRANSITION TO
SNOW AS TEMPERATURES DROP. PLACEMENT OF THE HEAVIEST QPF WILL
DEPEND ON WHERE THE LOW TRACKS, AND THAT IS LESS CERTAIN AT THIS
TIME RANGE. FORECAST QPF TOTALS CURRENTLY ARE SIMILAR TO THE
TUESDAY NIGHT SYSTEM, WITH ANYWHERE FROM A TENTH TO QUARTER OF
AN INCH POSSIBLE. HOW MUCH IS RAIN AND HOW MUCH IS SNOW WILL
AGAIN DEPEND ON WHEN THE RAIN TO SNOW TRANSITION TAKES PLACE.
BY THIS WEEKEND, NORTHWESTERLY FLOW WILL BE IN PLACE, KEEPING
OUR TEMPERATURES SLIGHTLY COOLER THAN NORMAL WITH HIGHS IN THE
30S TO LOWER 40S. THE NEXT FEATURE THAT WE WILL NEED TO WATCH
VERY CLOSELY WILL BE A SHORTWAVE TROUGH THAT ORIGINATES FROM THE
NORTHWESTERN CONUS. THERE ARE INDICATIONS IT WILL DEEPEN INTO A
STRONG SURFACE LOW SOMEWHERE IN THE UPPER MIDWEST, WITH HEAVY
SNOW NORTH OF THE LOW'S CENTER SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY. THE
LOCATION OF THE LOW IS HIGHLY UNCERTAIN AT THIS POINT. GIVEN
WHAT WE KNOW, THIS COULD BE A STRONG LATE WINTER SYSTEM WITH
PLENTY OF MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY TO TAP INTO.
AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z TUESDAY/
ISSUED AT 615 AM CDT MON MAR 9 2026
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO PREVAIL THROUGHOUT THIS DURATION.
THAT SAID, A SWATH OF LOWER-RANGE VFR AND SCATTERED MVFR
CEILINGS IS PUSHING EASTWARD ACROSS CENTRAL-SOUTHERN MN INTO
WESTERN WI. SOME SITES IN CENTRAL MN HAVE REPORTED CEILINGS
BARELY INTO MVFR RANGE SO DID INCLUDE SOME TEMPO MVFR MENTION AT
A FEW OF OUR TAF SITES THIS MORNING. OTHERWISE, SCT COVERAGE IN
THE MID-TO-UPPER LEVELS WILL PERSIST THROUGHOUT THE DAY TODAY
INTO THIS EVENING. CLOUD COVERAGE IS EXPECTED TO INCREASE
TONIGHT IN ADVANCE OF A DECAYING COLD FRONT, ALONG WHICH MAY
PRODUCE SOME SNOW SHOWERS IN CENTRAL MN. ALTHOUGH CHANCES ARE
NOT ALL THAT GREAT TO SEE SNOW SHOWERS, POTENTIAL LOOKS BEST AT
AXN-STC SO HAVE INCLUDED PROB30 MENTION THERE. WINDS WILL BY-
AND-LARGE BE A NON-ISSUE, ESPECIALLY WITH LLWS CONDITIONS NO
LONGER EXPECTED. WINDS WILL VEER FROM NW TODAY TO NE TONIGHT
INTO TOMORROW WITH SPEEDS GENERALLY AROUND 10 KTS.
KMSP...NO SIGNIFICANT CONCERNS. DID ADD THE MENTION OF BKN030
FOR THIS MORNING, AND THERE WERE SOME 5-MINUTE OBS THAT DID HAVE
BKN 035-040 SO THE POTENTIAL IS THERE FOR SOME BOUNCING INTO
AND OUT OF MVFR BEFORE NOON. KEPT THAT TAF DRY AS THE SNOWFALL
POTENTIAL IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN NORTH OF MSP.
/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/
WED...MVFR EARLY. CHC AM -SN. WIND NW 10-15 KTS.
THU...MVFR. CHC PM -RASN. WIND S 10-15G25 KTS.
FRI...VFR. WIND NW 10-15 KTS.
MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MN...NONE.
WI...NONE.
DISCUSSION...PV
AVIATION...JPC
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