896
FXUS63 KMPX 261057
AFDMPX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
457 AM CST THU FEB 26 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- CONFIDENCE INCREASING IN A BAND OF ACCUMULATING SNOW ACROSS
SOUTHERN MN SATURDAY MORNING. SLOW TRAVEL CONDITIONS ARE
LIKELY.
- WARMER TODAY & FRIDAY (40S), SUB-FREEZING THIS WEEKEND (20S),
FOLLOWED BY A REBOUND INTO THE 30S/40S NEXT WEEK.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 316 AM CST THU FEB 26 2026
WARMER TODAY & TOMORROW...FAIRLY QUIET START TO THURSDAY, AS
SATELLITE REVEALS A BAND OF MID-LEVEL STRATUS EXTENDING FROM ROUGHLY
BRAINED SOUTH TO FAIRMONT AT THIS HOUR. THE STRATUS IS LOCATED
WITHIN A REGION OF WARM ADVECTION TIED TO A SUBTLE MID-LEVEL WAVE
WITHIN THE NW FLOW REGIME. STRATUS IS FORECAST TO CONTINUE MOVING
EASTWARD THROUGH DAYBREAK AND IT'S POSSIBLE THAT A FEW FLURRIES
DEVELOP GIVEN THE PRESENCE OF A COMPACT ~110KT JETSTREAK ALOFT. NOT
ANTICIPATING MUCH IN THE WAY OF ACCUMULATION AND THE BEST CHANCE TO
SEE A FEW FLAKES FLY WILL BE ACROSS WESTERN WI. SKIES WILL CLEAR
FROM WEST TO EAST AFTER DAYBREAK AND SHOULD SET THE STAGE FOR A NICE
LATE-FEBURARY DAY. OVER THE NEXT ~36 HOURS, A STRONG SURFACE CYCLONE
IS FORECAST TO DEVELOP ACROSS SOUTHERN CANADA. OUR FORECAST AREA
WILL BE POSITIONED IN THE WARM SECTOR WELL TO THE SOUTH OF THE
LOW AS IT TRACKS EAST INTO ONTARIO. MILD WESTERLY FLOW WILL
ADVECT A THERMAL RIDGE (CHARACTERIZED BY 925MB TEMPS OF +3-7C)
OVERHEAD TODAY & TOMORROW. AS A RESULT, SURFACE HIGHS ARE
FORECAST TO SURGE INTO THE 40S FOR MOST LOCATIONS BOTH AFTERNOONS
AND COMMUNITIES SOUTHWEST OF THE MN RIVER WILL HAVE A REAL SHOT
OF WARMING INTO THE 50S EACH DAY. WE'LL ADD STRONG WESTERLY
WINDS INTO THE PICTURE TOMORROW AFTERNOON AND EVENING AS THE
SURFACE LOW DEEPENS TO LOWER 980S MB NORTH OF THE GREAT LAKES.
30-35MPH GUSTS APPEAR LIKELY AND FORECAST SOUNDINGS SUGGEST
LOCATIONS ACROSS CENTRAL MN MAY OBSERVE GUSTS CLOSER TO 40MPH.
BAND OF ACCUMULATING SNOW SATURDAY...THE VERY DYNAMIC CYCLONE WILL
SEND A TRAILING COLD FRONT SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA FRIDAY
EVENING INTO EARLY SATURDAY. STRONG COLD AIR ADVECTION WILL SUPPORT
CRASHING TEMPERATURES THAT WILL PLUMMET INTO THE SINGLE DIGITS AND
LOWER TEENS BY SATURDAY MORNING. THE COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE ITSELF
WILL BE DRY, HOWEVER PRECIPITATION POTENTIAL WILL INCREASE SHORTLY
THEREAFTER AS A NW TO SE ORIENTED JETSTREAK TRANSLATES SOUTHEAST
ALONG THE REMNANT BAROCLINIC ZONE SET TO SPAN FROM MT TO IA. BY
SATURDAY AT 12Z, GUIDANCE CAPTURES AN EXPANSIVE HIGH PRESSURE
OVER SOUTHERN CANADA AND A REGION OF WARM ADVECTION ACROSS THE
CENTRAL PLAINS INTO THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY. A SPRAWLED OUT NARROW
BAND OF ACCUMULATING SNOW DRIVEN BY FRONTOGENESIS IN THE
850/700MB LAYERS IS FORECAST TO EXTEND FROM THE DAKOTAS THROUGH
SOUTHERN MN. AS IS USUALLY THE CASE IN THESE SCENARIOS, THERE
ARE RUN-TO-RUN SHIFTS IN LATITUDINAL POSITION OF THE SNOW BAND
LARGELY DUE TO THE MODELED STRENGTH OF THE SURFACE HIGH TO THE
NORTH. THE ONE TREND THAT HAS BEEN VERY CONSISTENT IS THAT THE
BAND IS LIKELY TO SETUP SOUTH OF I-94 AND THE HIGHEST SNOW
PROBABILITIES EXIST CLOSER TO I-90. FORECAST SOUNDINGS BETWEEN
THE MN RIVER AND I-90 ON SATURDAY MORNING SHOW A RATHER
IMPRESSIVE DGZ SPANNING ROUGHLY 5K FEET IN TANDEM WITH AN
INVERSION INDICATIVE OF THE MID-LEVEL FRONTOGENIC CIRCULATION.
THESE FACTORS ARE SUPPORTIVE OF MORE EFFICIENT AND POTENTIALLY
HEAVIER SNOWFALL RATES WITHIN THE BAND. GENERAL QPF CONSENSUS
AMONGST THE ENSEMBLES IS SOMEWHERE BETWEEN 0.1-0.25" WHICH
TRANSLATES TO A 1-3" SNOWFALL. THIS IS THE TYPE OF SCENARIO THAT
WILL LIKELY FEATURE A LOCALIZED BAND OF THE HEAVIEST AMOUNTS
AND A LARGER FOOTPRINT OF LIGHT SNOW ACCUMULATION ON EITHER SIDE.
OF NOTE, THE MACHINE LEARNING SOLUTION FROM THE AIFS COMES IN A
BIT DRIER, BUT DOES MAINTAIN A SIMILAR POSITIONING OF THE BAND
AS ADVERTISED BY THE PHYSICAL MODELS. PUTTING THE PIECES
TOGETHER, THERE IS GROWING SUPPORT FOR A BAND OF ACCUMULATING
SNOW ACROSS SOUTHERN MN SATURDAY MORNING. GIVEN THE POTENTIAL
FOR HEAVIER SNOWFALL RATES AND THE MUCH COLDER TEMPERATURES AT
ONSET, SLICK OR HAZARDOUS TRAVEL CONDITIONS MAY DEVELOP. OUR
LATEST FORECAST FROM THE NBM FEATURE A BROAD SWATH OF 30-50 POPS
ALONG AND SOUTH OF I-94. POPS WILL LIKELY UNDERGO INCREASES
DURING UPCOMING FORECAST SHIFTS AS CONFIDENCE IN THE PLACEMENT
OF THE SNOW AXIS INCREASES.
LOOKING AHEAD TO NEXT WEEK...THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEKEND WILL RUN
MOSTLY DRY AS HIGH PRESSURE DRIFTS OVER THE UPPER MIDWEST. ENSEMBLES
CAPTURE A DEVELOPING WEATHER SYSTEM ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS SUNDAY
AFTERNOON AND IT'S POSSIBLE PRECIPITATION ON THE NORTHERN PERIPHERY
OF THE SYSTEM MAY CLIP PORTION OF SW MN. HOWEVER, THE AFOREMENTIONED
HIGH PRESSURE WILL LARGELY WORK TO SUPPRESS THE TRACK OF THE SYSTEM
TO THE SOUTH ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY. AN ACTIVE NORTHERN STREAM STORM
TRACK NORTH OF THE INTERNATIONAL BORDER WILL SUPPORT WARMER AIR
ADVECTING INTO THE UPPER MIDWEST NEXT WEEK. SURFACE HIGHS WILL CLIMB
BACK ABOVE FREEZING ON MONDAY AND CONTINUE WARMING WELL INTO THE 40S
TUESDAY, WEDNESDAY, & THURSDAY. AS REFERENCED IN THE PREVIOUS
DISCUSSION, EXTENDED GUIDANCE IS QUITE ACTIVE AND INDICATES MULTIPLE
CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION THROUGH THE FIRST THIRD OF MARCH. WHILE
IT'S FAR TOO SOON TO LOCK INTO ANY SPECIFICS, THE EVOLUTION OF
LONGWAVE TROUGHING AND THE ADVECTION OF AMPLE GULF MOISTURE INTO THE
CENTRAL CONUS WILL BEAR WATCHING. STAY TUNED!
AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z FRIDAY/
ISSUED AT 449 AM CST THU FEB 26 2026
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD, BUT PATCHY STRATUS
THIS MORNING COULD LEAD TO CEILINGS HEIGHTS NEAR MVFR LEVELS
ACROSS EASTERN MINNESOTA & WESTERN WISCONSIN. SOUTHERLY WINDS
THIS MORNING BECOME WESTERLY BY THE AFTERNOON, WITH SPEEDS
INCREASING TO AROUND 10 KTS. WIND SPEEDS DIMINISH AFTER SUNSET
BUT GUST RETURN EARLY FRIDAY MORNING ACROSS WEST-CENTRAL
MINNESOTA.
KMSP...NO ADDITIONAL CONCERNS.
/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/
SAT...VFR, CHC MVFR CIGS. WIND N 5-10 KTS.
SUN...VFR. WIND NE 5 KTS.
MON...VFR. WIND S 10-20 KTS.
MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MN...NONE.
WI...NONE.
DISCUSSION...STRUS
AVIATION...ETA
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