289
FXUS63 KMPX 270027
AFDMPX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
727 PM CDT SAT SEP 26 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- RAIN SHOWERS CONTINUE TODAY AND TONIGHT.
- MORE RAIN CHANCES OVER THE NEXT WEEK WITH THE BEST CHANCE
COMING ON TUESDAY.
- NEAR TO ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES FAVORED INTO NEXT WEEK.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 234 PM CDT SAT SEP 26 2026
REST OF TODAY TO MONDAY.... RAIN WILL CONTINUE TO ADVANCE NORTH
THIS AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING THANKS TO PERSISTENT SOUTHERLY
FLOW ALONG THE AXIS OF THE TROUGH ALOFT. COVERAGE OF THESE
SHOWERS WILL DECREASE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING
HOURS. EVENTUALLY EXPECTING SOME MORE POP UP ISOLATED SHOWERS
ACROSS MAINLY SOUTHERN MINNESOTA THIS EVENING INTO TONIGHT IF A
LLJ CAN DEVELOP. THERE IS JUST ENOUGH INSTABILITY PRESENT FOR
SOME ISOLATED LIGHTNING AS WELL ACROSS MINNESOTA SOUTH OF THE
TWIN CITIES METRO. BY DAYTIME TOMORROW THIS TROUGH WILL BE
MOSTLY TO OUR EAST PROVIDING FOR A DRY DAY. WITH CLOUD COVER
EXPECTED TO HOLD THROUGHOUT THE NIGHT TEMPERATURES WILL NOT BE
ABLE TO FALL MUCH AS THE CLOUDS LIMIT THE RADIATIONAL COOLING.
CLOUDS SHOULD CLEAR FROM WEST TO EAST ON SUNDAY WHICH WILL ALLOW
FOR SOME ADDITIONAL DAYTIME HEATING ACROSS PARTS OF WESTERN
MINNESOTA WHERE TEMPERATURES LOOK LIKELY TO BREAK THE 70 DEGREE
MARK. UPPER 60S MORE LIKELY TO THE EAST AS CLOUD COVER HOLDS
MUCH OF THE DAY. SOUTHERLY FLOW AND WAA AS A HIGH IS OFF TO OUR
EAST ON MONDAY WILL PROVIDE FOR FAIRLY WIDESPREAD HIGHS
BREAKING INTO THE LOWER 70S.
MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY... THE NEXT SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVES
THROUGH THE NORTHERN PLAIN AND UPPER MIDWEST MONDAY NIGHT INTO
TUESDAY. RAIN WILL BE EXPECTED ALONG AND IN FRONT OF THE
SURFACE FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THIS WAVE ALOFT. TIMING OF THIS
FRONTAL PASSAGE STILL VARIES BETWEEN DETERMINISTIC MODELS AND
THEIR ENSEMBLE MEMBERSHIP. WHAT LOOKS LIKELY WITH THIS IS
WIDESPREAD RAIN, MAINLY ON TUESDAY. WHAT REMAINS LESS CERTAIN IS
THE POTENTIAL FOR HEAVY RAINFALL AND THE EXACT TIMING FOR THE
FRONTAL PASSAGE. OVERALL DYNAMICS REMAIN BETTER TO OUR NORTH AND
SOUTH WHERE THERE IS GREATER AGREEMENT IN ENSEMBLE MEMBERS QPF.
THERE REMAIN SOME SOLUTIONS THAT WOULD EXTEND THIS HIGHER QPF
INTO SOUTHERN MINNESOTA AND WESTERN WISCONSIN, BUT THERE IS MUCH
MORE SPREAD. A LOT OF THIS HAS TO DO WITH THE TIMING OF WHEN
FRONTAL PASSAGE OCCURS AND WHAT ENVIRONMENT BUILDS AHEAD OF
FROPA. AS THIS EVENT MOVES FROM THE LONG TERM INTO THE SHORT
TERM PERIOD WE SHOULD START TO GET A BETTER IDEA ON THESE FINER
DETAILS ON THE FORECAST. WITH RAIN FORECAST AND THEREFORE
EVAPORATIVE COOLING TEMPERATURES LOOK SLIGHTLY COOLER ON TUESDAY
COMPARED TO MONDAY, BUT CONTINUED WAA FOR MUCH OF THE DAY WILL
KEEP TEMPERATURES ON THE SLIGHTLY WARMER SIDE OF NORMAL IN THE
UPPER 60S.
REST OF THE WEEK... PAST TUESDAY'S SYSTEM THE ENSEMBLES START
TO SCATTER A LOT MORE WITH RESPECT TO QPF. ACROSS THE GLOBAL
DETERMINISTIC MODELS THERE IS AGREEMENT IN THE JET STREAM BEING
ACROSS SOUTHERN CANADA TO OUR NORTH. THIS KEEPS US ON THE
WARMER SIDE AND TEMPERATURES LOOK TO REMAIN NEAR TO ABOVE NORMAL
FOR MUCH OF THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK. THE OTHER SIDE TO THIS
IS MORE ZONAL FLOW AT 500 MB WHICH MEANS RAIN CHANCES WILL BE
MORE DEPENDENT ON SMALLER SCALE FEATURES RATHER THAN LARGE
SYNOPTIC TROUGHS. THIS IS PART OF WHY WE SEE SUCH SCATTERED QPF
DATA IN THE ENSEMBLE MEMBERS FOR THIS PERIOD.
AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY/
ISSUED AT 720 PM CDT SAT SEP 26 2026
LOW STRATUS PERSISTS THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH CEILINGS LOWERING
THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. LIFR CEILINGS LOOK POSSIBLE ACROSS
WEST-CENTRAL MINNESOTA WHILE CEILINGS WILL HOVER NEAR THE
IFR/MVFR THRESHOLD ACROSS EASTERN MINNESOTA & WESTERN WISCONSIN,
EXCEPTING EAU WHERE CEILINGS SHOULD BARELY REMAIN VFR. DRIZZLE &
MIST ALSO DEVELOPS OVERNIGHT WITH THE LOWEST VISIBILITY
EXPECTED ACROSS WESTERN MINNESOTA WHERE VISIBILITY BELOW 1SM IS
LIKELY AT TIMES TOMORROW MORNING. MAINLY MVFR TO VFR VISIBILITY
IS EXPECTED ELSEWHERE.
SOUTHEAST WINDS DIMINISH THIS EVENING WITH SPEEDS REMAINING
BELOW 5 KTS THROUGH THE REST OF THE PERIOD. WINDS REMAIN
GENERALLY SOUTHEASTERLY TO SOUTHERLY THROUGH TOMORROW MORNING,
BECOMING MORE VARIABLE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON.
KMSP...EXPECT THE WORST CEILING & VISIBILITY IMPACTS TO REMAIN
WEST OF THE TERMINAL OVERNIGHT THROUGH TOMORROW MORNING.
GENERALLY EXPECT LOW MVFR CEILINGS OVERNIGHT ALONG WITH SOME
PATCHY DRIZZLE/MIST. BEST CHANCE FOR LOWER IFR CEILINGS & MVFR
VISIBILITY WOULD BE DURING THE MORNING (6-10 AM).
/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/
MON...VFR. WIND SE 5KTS.
TUE...MVFR/-SHRA LIKELY, CHC IFR. WIND SE 5-10KTS.
WED...VFR, CHC -SHRA/MVFR. WIND S TO SE 5KTS.
MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MN...NONE.
WI...NONE.
DISCUSSION...NDC
AVIATION...ETA
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