112
FXUS63 KMPX 012326
AFDMPX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
626 PM CDT SAT AUG 1 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- SUNNY & DRY THIS WEEKEND. AREAS OF FOG OVERNIGHT.
- NEXT CHANCE FOR RAIN COMES MONDAY AFTERNOON INTO TUESDAY.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 1110 AM CDT SAT AUG 1 2026
PLEASANT SEASONABLE WEATHER AS WE START AUGUST THIS WEEKEND WITH
AFTERNOON HIGHS GENERALLY IN THE LOW 80S TODAY & TOMORROW.
AREAS OF MIST & FOG ARE LIKELY TO DEVELOP AGAIN OVERNIGHT INTO
TOMORROW MORNING, WITH THE MOST WIDESPREAD FOG LIKELY IN LOW-
LYING AREAS OF WESTERN WISCONSIN & SOUTHEAST MINNESOTA. THE
UPPER LEVEL PATTERN BECOMES MORE ACTIVE EARLY NEXT WEEK AS A
SHORTWAVE TROUGH DEEPENS AS IT MOVES EASTWARDS ALONG THE US-
CANADA BORDER. MOST OF THE WIDESPREAD RAIN & THUNDERSTORMS OF
THIS SYSTEM WILL BE TIED TO THE STRONGER UPPER-LEVEL FORCING
ACROSS NORTHERN MINNESOTA, BUT WE WILL LIKELY SEE SCATTERED
SHOWERS & THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOP ALONG THE SURFACE COLD FRONT
EXTENDING SOUTHWARDS THROUGH THE AREA. MOST MODEL GUIDANCE
BRINGS THE TIMING OF THE FRONT THROUGH THE AREA DURING THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS MONDAY INTO TUESDAY, NOT THE MOST FAVORABLE TIME
OF DAY FOR INSTABILITY & THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT. THUS WE
SHOULD SEE SOME SORT OF RAIN ACROSS AT LEAST WESTERN MINNESOTA
LATE MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY, BUT ANY WIDESPREAD THUNDERSTORMS
OR A GOOD SOAKING RAIN WILL LIKELY BE WANING BY THE TIME THE
FRONT REACHES OUR AREA.
WE RETURN BACK TO A SEASONABLE EARLY-AGUGUST PATTERN FOR
MIDWEEK WITH WEAK HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE UPPER MIDWEST. A SLOW-
MOVING FRONT SOUTH OF THIS REGION OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL LIGHT UP
WITH THUNDERSTORMS & POTENTIALLY HEAVY RAIN LATER IN THE WEEK,
BUT THE GENERAL MODEL CONSENSUS KEEPS THIS ACTIVITY SOUTH OF THE
AREA ACROSS IOWA & THE MID-MISSIPPI VALLEY. IT'S STILL A WAYS
OUT BUT THERE APPEARS TO BE A BETTER SHOT AT MORE WIDESPREAD
RAIN ACROSS MN/WI LATE NEXT WEEK INTO NEXT WEEKEND AS MOST
GUIDANCE DEPICTS ANOTHER SHORTWAVE PASSING THROUGH THE UPPER
MIDWEST.
AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY/
ISSUED AT 609 PM CDT SAT AUG 1 2026
VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE PERIOD. SKIES FEW AT 5-8 KFT,
BECOMING SKC AROUND SUNSET. BREEZY NORTH WINDS OF 8-13 KNOTS
WITH GUSTS TO 18-23 KNOTS THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE EVENING,
DECREASING AFTER SUNSET TO AROUND 5 KNOTS. WINDS WILL TURN
NORTHEAST TO EAST ON SUNDAY.
KMSP...NO ADDITIONAL CONCERNS.
/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/
MON...VFR. WIND S 10-15G20 KTS.
TUE...VFR. CHC AM -TSRA. WIND W/NW 7-12 KTS.
WED...VFR. WINDS LIGHT AND VRB.
MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MN...NONE.
WI...NONE.
DISCUSSION...ETA
AVIATION...LPR
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