962  
FXUS63 KMPX 281120  
AFDMPX  
 
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION  
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN  
520 AM CST MON NOV 28 2022  
   
UPDATED FOR 12Z AVIATION DISCUSSION
 
 
ISSUED AT 520 AM CST MON NOV 28 2022  
   
DISCUSSION
 
(TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY)  
ISSUED AT 313 AM CST MON NOV 28 2022  
 
KEY MESSAGES:  
 
- PLOWABLE SNOW STARTS TONIGHT WITH THE HEAVIEST SNOW EXPECTED  
DURING THE DAY ON TUESDAY.  
 
- UP AND DOWN TEMPERATURES OVER THE NEXT WEEK GENERALLY RUNNING  
COLDER THAN NORMAL.  
 
MONDAY AND TUESDAY... WE WILL SEE SOME WARM AIR ADVECTION TODAY  
AHEAD OF THE WINTER STORM THAT WILL BE MOVING THROUGH TONIGHT INTO  
TUESDAY. THIS MEANS WE WILL SEE MILDER TEMPERATURES WITH HIGHS IN  
THE UPPER 30S TO MID 40S AND PARTLY TO MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES. THIS IS  
ALL DRIVEN BY THE TROUGH OVER THE NORTHWEST CONUS/SOUTHWEST CANADA  
THIS MORNING. IT WILL TRACK EAST INTO THE NORTH CENTRAL  
CONUS/CANADIAN PRAIRIES PROVIDING A SOURCE OF SYNOPTIC LIFT FOR THE  
SYSTEM. AT THE SURFACE THIS WILL BE A CONUS SPANNING KIND OF SYSTEM  
WITH THE SOUTHERN PART OF THE FRONT CAUSING A SEVERE WEATHER RISK IN  
THE SOUTH AND UP HERE WE ARE EXPECTING WIDESPREAD SNOW. IT IS ALSO A  
BIT OF A HYBRID SYSTEM WITH PART OF IT DRIVEN A LOW FOLLOWING A  
COLORADO LOW KIND OF TRACK AND AN OCCLUDED LOW MORE CLOSELY  
ASSOCIATED WITH THE UPPER TROUGH OVER THE CANADIAN PRAIRIES. AS THIS  
IS A FAIRLY DYNAMIC SYSTEM WE ARE EXPECTING AN AREA OF  
FRONTOGENETICAL BANDING SOMEWHERE ALONG THE COLD FRONT. LOOKING INTO  
THE HREF MEMBERS THEY ALL AGREE WITH A NARROWER AREA OF HIGHER  
QPF/SNOW. WHERE THIS BANDING SETS UP STILL SEEMS TO VARY AT THIS  
POINT, SO WE HAVE OPTED TO KEEP THE WATCH GOING FOR NOW. BETWEEN  
THESE MODELS THERE IS GENERALLY HIGHER AGREEMENT FOR THE BANDING IN  
NORTHWEST WISCONSIN WHERE THE WATCH IS, BUT WHEN IT SETS UP BANDS  
COULD VERY WELL EXTEND TO THE SOUTHWEST INTO MINNESOTA AS WELL.  
BEYOND THIS BANDING SETUP WHERE 6 OR MORE INCHES OF SNOW COULD FALL  
WE WILL SEE A BROADER AREA OF SNOWFALL ACROSS THE REGION. MOST WILL  
SEE SNOW, BUT SOME LOCATIONS FARTHER NORTHWEST LIKE MADISON, MORRIS,  
AND ALEXANDRIA COULD END UP WITH NO ACCUMULATING SNOW. AT THIS POINT  
EXPECTING SNOW AS THE PRECIPITION TYPE WITH LITTLE CHANCE FOR RAIN OR  
FREEZING RAIN AS THE PROFILES SHOULD COOL ENOUGH THROUGHOUT THE  
ATMOSPHERE BEFORE PRECIPITION STARTS. SNOW WILL OCCUR THROUGH THE DAY  
ON TUESDAY AND INTO TUESDAY NIGHT WITH SOME SNOW STILL POSSIBLE  
EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING IN PARTS OF WISCONSIN. UNFORTUNATELY  
CONFIDENCE HAS NOT GONE UP AS MUCH AS PREVIOUSLY EXPECTED. ONE OF THE  
REASONS FOR THIS IS THE DIFFERENCE BETWEEN MODEL SYSTEMS. AN EXAMPLE  
OF THIS IS THE GEFS/GFS BEING NOTABLY LOWER IN QPF THAN THE  
EPS/ECMWF AND THIS RESULTS IN AN ODD SET OF NBM PERCENTILES. WITH THE  
MIDDLE 50TH PERCENTILES ON THE LOW END, BUT SNOW TOTALS RAMPING UP  
FAST AS YOU GO TO HIGHER PERCENTILES. BOTTOM LINE EXPECT SNOW ON  
TUESDAY AND KEEP AN EYE ON UPDATES LATER TODAY TO GET A BETTER IDEA  
ON WHERE THE HEAVIEST SNOW WILL FALL.  
 
WEDNESDAY INTO THE WEEKEND... BEHIND THE MAIN STORM SYSTEM COLD AIR  
FROM CANADA WILL ADVECT IN AND BE THE DOMINANT FEATURE ON WEDNESDAY  
WITH TEMPERATURES FALLING INTO THE SINGLE DIGITS BY WEDNESDAY NIGHT  
UNDER ROBUST COLD AIR ADVECTION. THIS WILL TREND TO MORE NEUTRAL  
TEMPERATURE ADVECTION OR MAYBE EVEN SOME WARM AIR ADVECTION BY  
THURSDAY WITH A WARMING TREND BACK UP TO ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES BY  
FRIDAY. GLOBAL DETERMINISTIC MODELS SUGGEST A SHORTWAVE PASSING  
TROUGH AROUND SATURDAY, BUT BEST CHANCES FOR SNOW LOOK TO REMAIN TO  
OUR NORTH AT THIS TIME. OVERALL FAIRLY ZONAL FLOW ALOFT WITHOUT ANY  
MAJOR SOURCES OF SYNOPTIC LIFT SO LITTLE TO NO CHANCE FOR  
PRECIPITATION SUNDAY. THE WEEKEND SHOULD SEE NEAR TO MAYBE SLIGHTLY  
BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES UNDER THE PREVIOUSLY MENTIONED MORE ZONAL  
FLOW.  
 

 
   
AVIATION
 
(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z TUESDAY MORNING)  
ISSUED AT 520 AM CST MON NOV 28 2022  
 
VFR TODAY WITH ALL EYES ON THE SNOW ARRIVING LATE TONIGHT/TUESDAY  
MORNING WHEN IFR CONDITIONS WILL ARRIVE. CURRENT SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL  
GUST UP TO AROUND 20 KNOTS THIS AFTERNOON BEFORE FALLING AFTER  
SUNSET. WINDS WILL SHIFT TO THE NORTHWEST THIS EVENING.  
 
KMSP... VFR FOR MOST OF THE PERIOD WITH SHIFTING WINDS AND SOME GUSTS  
THE MAIN CONCERNS TODAY. TOMORROW IS ANOTHER STORY WITH SNOW AND AT  
LEAST IFR MOVING IN. THERE IS POTENTIAL FOR SOME HEAVY SNOW RATES  
THAT COULD EVEN HAVE SOME PERIODS OF LIFR DURING THE DAY ON TUESDAY.  
 
/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/  
WED...VFR. WIND NW 10-20 KTS GUSTING 25-30 KTS.  
THU...VFR. WINDS SE 10-15 KTS.  
FRI...VFR. WINDS SW 10-15 KTS.  
 

 
   
MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
 
 
MN...NONE.  
WI...WINTER STORM WATCH FROM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY EVENING FOR  
BARRON-POLK-RUSK.  
 

 
 

 
 
DISCUSSION...NDC  
AVIATION...NDC  
 
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