439
FXUS63 KMPX 280626
AFDMPX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
126 AM CDT SAT MAR 28 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- VERY DRY & WINDY CONDITIONS WILL LEAD TO CRITICAL FIRE
WEATHER CONDITIONS THIS AFTERNOON.
- SOUTHWEST WINDS GUST TO 35-45 MPH LATE THIS MORNING THROUGH
THE AFTERNOON.
- VERY WARM TEMPERATURES CONTINUE THROUGH MONDAY, FOLLOWED BY
MORE SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES THE REST OF THE WEEK.
- A FEW CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION THROUGH THE WEEK, NO MAJOR
SYSTEMS EXPECTED.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 112 AM CDT SAT MAR 28 2026
WE'RE SEEING TEMPERATURES BOTTOM OUT INTO THE TEENS ACROSS MUCH
OF THE AREA OVERNIGHT, AS PRIME RADIATIONAL COOLING CONDITIONS
HAVE DEVELOPED WITH BROAD HIGH PRESSURE SITTING DIRECTLY OVER
THE REGION. SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL INCREASE THROUGH THE MORNING
AS THE HIGH PRESSURE SLIDES OFF TO THE EAST WITH GUSTS
INCREASING TO 35-45 MPH BY MID TO LATE MORNING, AND REMAINING
ELEVATED THROUGH THE SUNSET. THE STRONGEST WIND GUSTS WILL BE
LOCATED ACROSS SOUTHWEST MINNESOTA, & A FEW SPORADIC GUSTS NEAR
50 MPH CAN'T BE RULED OUT UP ON THE BUFFALO RIDGE WHERE DEEP
MIXING WILL BE MAXIMIZED. THE STRONG SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL ALSO
ALLOW FOR TEMPERATURES TO REBOUND QUICKLY FROM THIS MORNING,
WITH HIGHS IN THE 60S LIKELY ACROSS WESTERN MINNESOTA &
GENERALLY MID TO UPPER 50S ELSEWHERE. IN ADDITION TO THE WARM
TEMPERATURES, VERY DRY AIR WILL REMAIN IN PLACE BEHIND THE
CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE, & WILL LIKELY BECOME EVEN DRIER DURING
THE AFTERNOON WHEN DEEP MIXING IS MAXIMIZED. VERY DRY CONDITIONS
ARE EXPECTED TODAY WITH DEW POINTS FALLING WELL INTO THE TEENS
ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA BY THE AFTERNOON, POSSIBLY INTO THE
SINGLE DIGITS ACROSS SOUTHWEST MINNESOTA WHERE THE
AFOREMENTIONED DEEP MIXING WILL BE MAXIMIZED. THIS WILL RESULT
IN RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES FALLING BELOW 20% ACROSS THE ENTIRE
AREA, POSSIBLY APPROACHING 10% ACROSS SOUTHWEST MINNESOTA. THIS
COMBINATION OF WARM, VERY DRY, & WINDY CONDITIONS WILL LEAD TO
CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS & ANY OUTDOOR BURNING IS
STRONGLY DISCOURAGED THIS AFTERNOON.
TEMPERATURES REMAIN WELL-ABOVE NORMAL SUNDAY & MONDAY AS UPPER
LEVEL RIDGING BECOMES MORE PRONOUNCED OVER THE CENTRAL CONUS.
ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE SUGGESTS TEMPERATURE ANOMALIES TOP OUT IN THE
25-30 DEGREE RANGE MONDAY AFTERNOON WHEN WIDESPREAD HIGHS IN THE
70S LOOK POSSIBLE IF NOT SOME 80S ACROSS SOUTHERN MINNESOTA.
THE JET STREAM BECOMES MORE ACTIVE OVER THE REGION BEGINNING
TUESDAY, WHEN A COLD FRONT IS LIKELY TO MOVE THROUGH MN & WI.
GUIDANCE REMAINS WIDELY SPREAD ON THE TIMING & LOCATION OF
NUMEROUS POTENTIAL SYSTEMS THROUGH THE WEEK AS THE JET REMAINS
ACTIVE OVERHEAD, BUT IT DOES APPEAR THAT ANY APPRECIABLE
PRECIPITATION WILL REMAIN OFF TO OUR NORTH & EAST THROUGH AT
LEAST MIDWEEK. TEMPERATURES LOOK TO RETURN TO MORE NORMAL VALUES
BY WEDNESDAY & REMAIN THERE INTO THE WEEKEND. GUIDANCE HAS
TRENDED MORE IN AGREEMENT TOWARDS A DEEP TROUGH DEVELOPING OVER
THE CENTRAL CONUS BY THE END OF THE WEEK, LEADING TO A CHANCE
FOR A SYSTEM WITH MORE WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION ACROSS THE
ENTIRE UPPER MIDWEST FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY. TEMPERATURES MOSTLY
LOOK WARM ENOUGH TO KEEP ANY PRECIPITATION THROUGH THE WEEK AS
ALL RAIN, BUT IT'S ALWAYS POSSIBLE THAT WE SEE THE TIMING SETUP
WHERE PRECIPITATION FALLS DURING THE COLDEST OVERNIGHT HOURS &
THUS CAN'T TOTALLY RULE OUT A SLUSHY, SHORT- LIVED, BIT OF SNOW.
AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY/
ISSUED AT 1151 PM CDT FRI MAR 27 2026
VFR IS EXPECTED THE ENTIRE PERIOD WITH BROKEN MID-LEVEL CLOUDS
ARRIVING DURING SATURDAY MORNING, LASTING INTO THE EARLY
AFTERNOON. SOUTH-SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS WILL GREATLY INCREASE
FROM SUNRISE ONWARDS WITH MAXIMIZING IN SPEED FROM LATE SATURDAY
MORNING THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. STRONGEST WINDS ARE EXPECTED IN
WESTERN MN WHERE SUSTAINED VALUES WILL RANGE BETWEEN 20-25 KNOTS
WHILE GUSTS EXCEED 35 KNOTS. WIND MAGNITUDES DECREASE TO THE
EAST BUT SUSTAINED VALUES OF 15-20 KNOTS AND GUSTS OF 25-30
KNOTS ARE EXPECTED OVER WESTERN WI. WINDS SLOW TO 5-10 KNOTS
SATURDAY EVENING AND TURN SOUTHERLY. KEPT MENTION OF SOUTH-
SOUTHWESTERLY LLWS OF 40 KNOTS AT AXN FROM 14-16Z SATURDAY.
KMSP...SOUTH-SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS WILL STEADILY INCREASE AFTER
12Z SATURDAY MAXING OUT DURING THE AFTERNOON. SUSTAINED VALUES
DURING THE AFTERNOON WILL RANGE FROM 15-20 KNOTS WHILE GUSTS
APPROACH 30 KNOTS. OPTED TO OMIT ANY MENTION OF LLWS DURING
SATURDAY NIGHT AS VALUES ARE ONLY AROUND 35 KNOTS.
/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/
SUN...VFR. WIND S TO SE 5KTS.
MON...VFR. WIND E 10KTS.
TUE...VFR, CHC -SHRA/MVFR. WIND NW 10-15KTS.
MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MN...RED FLAG WARNING FROM NOON TODAY TO 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR
ANOKA-BENTON-CARVER-CHIPPEWA-CHISAGO-DAKOTA-DOUGLAS-
FREEBORN-GOODHUE-HENNEPIN-ISANTI-KANABEC-KANDIYOHI-LE
SUEUR-MCLEOD-MEEKER-MILLE LACS-MORRISON-NICOLLET-POPE-
RAMSEY-RENVILLE-RICE-SCOTT-SHERBURNE-SIBLEY-STEARNS-
STEELE-STEVENS-SWIFT-TODD-WASECA-WASHINGTON-WRIGHT.
RED FLAG WARNING FROM 10 AM THIS MORNING TO 9 PM CDT THIS
EVENING FOR BLUE EARTH-BROWN-FARIBAULT-LAC QUI PARLE-
MARTIN-REDWOOD-WATONWAN-YELLOW MEDICINE.
WI...NONE.
DISCUSSION...ETA
AVIATION...
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.
Main Text Page