100  
FXUS63 KMPX 200004  
AFDMPX  
 
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION  
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN  
704 PM CDT FRI AUG 19 2022  
   
DISCUSSION
 
(THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY)  
ISSUED AT 324 PM CDT FRI AUG 19 2022  
 
KEY MESSAGES:  
 
- SLOW MOVING SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS COULD PRODUCE  
LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN THROUGH THIS EVENING.  
 
- LIGHT WINDS AND SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES THIS WEEKEND AND NEXT  
WEEK, WITH RAINFALL CHANCES RETURNING MID-WEEK.  
 
TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY...A STACKED UPPER LEVEL LOW WAS SLOWLY SPINNING  
OVERHEAD, PRODUCING CLOUDS, SHOWERS AND EVEN A FEW THUNDERSTORMS.  
THIS COVERAGE IN RAINFALL SHOULD INCREASE ALONG THE I-35 CORRIDOR  
LATER THIS AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING. THE THREAT FOR SEVERE WEATHER  
IS LOW, BUT LOCALIZED HEAVY RAINFALL IS POSSIBLE. MID LEVEL LAPSE  
RATES ARE NEARLY MOIST ADIABATIC, AND THE OVERALL WIND FIELD IS  
LIGHT WHICH ARE LIMITING FACTORS IN THE AMOUNT OF CAPE AND SHEAR,  
AND THEREFORE SEVERE WEATHER. THE MAIN CONCERN IS LOCALIZED HEAVY  
RAIN DUE TO THE SLOW-MOVING NATURE OF THE STORMS, AND ALSO THE  
POTENTIAL FOR WET MICROBURSTS. THE COVERAGE AND INTENSITY SHOULD  
DECREASE TOWARD SUNSET, WITH MOST LOCATIONS DRYING OUT OVERNIGHT.  
AREAS OF FOG ARE POSSIBLE AS WELL. ON SATURDAY THERE ARE SMALL  
CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS AGAIN ACROSS SOUTHERN/EASTERN  
MINNESOTA INTO WESTERN WISCONSIN, BUT MOST LOCATIONS SHOULD REMAIN  
DRY AS THE SYSTEM BEGINS TO EXIT THE REGION TO THE SOUTHEAST. BY  
SATURDAY NIGHT SKIES WILL START TO CLEAR AS UPPER LEVEL RIDGE AND  
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS ACROSS THE REGION. THE COMBINATION OF  
LOW LEVEL MOISTURE, CLEARING SKIES, AND LIGHT WINDS SHOULD LEAD TO  
AREAS OF FOG SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY MORNING. ON SUNDAY THE FOG  
SHOULD BURN OFF, BUT IT MIGHT BE SLOW TO DO SO GIVEN THE LIGHT WINDS.  
 
MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...HIGH PRESSURE WILL KEEP THE REGION DRY  
MONDAY AND TUESDAY, BUT MESSY NORTHWEST FLOW WITH WEAK EMBEDDED  
SHORTWAVES WILL BRING CHANCES FOR RAIN TUESDAY NIGHT INTO THE END OF  
THE WEEK. EXPECT MORE OF THE SAME WITH SCATTERED SLOW MOVING  
THUNDERSTORMS WITH A LOW RISK OF SEVERE WEATHER, BUT POSSIBLE  
LOCALIZED HEAVY RAIN. TEMPERATURES WILL BE NEAR THE SEASONAL AVERAGE  
FOR LATE AUGUST.  
 

 
   
AVIATION
 
(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SATURDAY EVENING)  
ISSUED AT 649 PM CDT FRI AUG 19 2022  
 
SHOWER COVERAGE WILL CONTINUE TO DIMINISH OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS AS  
THE ATMO HAS BECOME QUITE WORKED OVER AND WE'LL BE LOSING DAYTIME  
HEATING. AFTER THAT, IT'S A QUESTION OF HOW STRATUS/FOG DEVELOPS  
TONIGHT. HREF SHOWS THIS BEING MORE OF A STRATUS THAN A FOG SETUP,  
BUT MODELS ARE ALL OVER THE BOARD FOR HOW WIDESPREAD IT WILL BE.  
GIVEN THE MOIST LOW LEVELS AND FAVORABLE NORTHEAST WINDS (FOR  
FOG/STRATUS), FAVORED THE PESSIMISTIC END OF THINGS FOR THE STRATUS  
TONIGHT. IT WILL BE A SLOW GO TO CLEAR OUT THE CLOUDS SATURDAY GIVEN  
THE LIGHT WINDS. SHOWER ACTIVITY SATURDAY AFTERNOON LOOKS ISOLATED AT  
BEST ACROSS WESTERN WI AND SOUTHEAST MN, SO HAVE KEPT TAFS DRY FOR  
SATURDAY.  
 
KMSP...CHANCES FOR SHOWERS LOOKS TO ALL BUT DISAPPEAR AT 4Z. MODELS  
ARE ALL OVER THE BOARD FOR HOW STRATUS WILL EVOLVE TONIGHT, BUT THE  
LAV TRENDS LOOK REASONABLE FOR STRATUS EVOLUTION TONIGHT, SO HAVE THE  
TAF FOLLOWING ALONG THOSE LINES. MSP LOOKS TO BE DRY FOR SATURDAY,  
WITH ANY AFTERNOON ACTIVITY REMAINING EAST/SOUTHEAST OF THE FIELD.  
 
/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/  
SUN...VFR. CHC MORNING BR/FG. WIND NE 5-10 KTS.  
MON...VFR. WIND N 5 KTS.  
TUE...VFR. WIND SE 5-10 KTS.  
 

 
   
MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
 
 
MN...NONE.  
WI...NONE.  

 
 

 
 
DISCUSSION...JRB  
AVIATION...MPG  
 
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