098
FXUS63 KMPX 220516
AFDMPX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
1116 PM CST TUE JAN 21 2025
KEY MESSAGES
- TEMPERATURES CONTINUE TO INCREASE THROUGH TOMORROW, WITH A
BRIEF COOLDOWN AGAIN ON THURSDAY BEFORE A RETURN TO SEASONAL
TEMPERATURES THIS WEEKEND.
- A DUSTING OF SNOW IS POSSIBLE LATE THIS EVENING THROUGH EARLY
TOMORROW, WITH LACK OF MOISTURE PREVENTING ACCUMULATION FOR
MOST.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 221 PM CST TUE JAN 21 2025
GOES SATELLITE IMAGERY THIS AFTERNOON SHOWS CLOUD COVER SLOWLY
APPROACHING THE MPX CWA FROM THE WEST-NORTHWEST AS A WEAK
SURFACE FRONT DRAGS ACROSS THE REGION BY LATER TONIGHT. THIS
FEATURE COULD PRODUCE SOME FLURRIES OR LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS WITH
LIMITED ACCUMULATION DUE TO LACK OF MOISTURE. IF WE WERE NOT
RECOVERING FROM TEMPERATURES AND DEW POINTS DEEP INTO THE DOUBLE
DIGITS BELOW ZERO, THIS KIND OF SETUP COULD HAVE PRODUCED
MEASURABLE SNOWFALL. OUR PWAT VALUE FROM 12Z THIS MORNING WAS
0.03'' WHICH IS THE NEW DAILY MINIMUM FOR OUR OFFICE PER THE SPC
SOUNDING CLIMATOLOGY PAGE, SHOWING HOW EXCEPTIONALLY DRY THIS
AIRMASS IS. EVEN IF WE WERE TO SQUEEZE THE ENTIRETY OF THIS
MOISTURE OUT OF THE ATMOSPHERE, IT WOULD RESULT IN ONLY A TENTH
OR TWO OF ACCUMULATION AT MOST. ANOTHER CONSIDERATION IS THE
TYPE OF SNOWFLAKES PRODUCED BY TEMPERATURES AS COLD AS WE ARE
EXPERIENCING, WHICH TEND TO BE THE COLUMN-LIKE SMALLER QUALITY
THAT STRUGGLE TO ACCUMULATE COMPARED TO DENDRITES WHICH COULD
PILE UP RATHER FAST. EXPECT PWATS TO BE HIGHER WITH WARMER
TEMPERATURES AS THE 00Z SOUNDING IS COMING UP, HOWEVER EVEN WITH
THIS WE SHOULD EXPECT TO SEE LITTLE IN THE WAY OF ACCUMULATION
AS LIGHT SNOWFALL ARRIVES LATER THIS EVENING. A WELCOME OUTCOME
OF THIS WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY SLIDING THROUGH WILL BE THE
CONTINUATION OF SURFACE WINDS SHIFTING OUT THE SOUTHWEST WHICH
SHOULD HELP ADVECT SOME WARMER AIR INTO THE REGION, WITH
SOUTHERLY WINDS ONGOING AT MSP WHICH HAS HELPED BUMP OUR
TEMPERATURES ABOVE 0 AS OF AROUND 2PM.
AS THE LIGHT SNOWFALL ENDS EARLY IN THE MORNING TOMORROW, WE
WILL SEE A SHIFT BACK TOWARDS WESTERLY/NORTHWESTERLY WINDS AT
THE SURFACE CAUSING OUR BRIEF COOLDOWN BACK TO SINGLE DIGIT LOWS
THURSDAY MORNING AND HIGHS IN THE LOW TEENS. POST-THURSDAY,
FLOW ALOFT TURNS ZONAL WITH A BROAD TROUGH OVER A LARGE PORTION
OF NORTH AMERICA WHICH SHOULD RESULT IN RELATIVELY QUIET WEATHER
DUE TO A LACK OF FORCING. THERE WILL LIKELY BE SOME CLOUD COVER
POPPING IN AND OUT WHICH WILL HELP KEEP OVERNIGHT TEMPERATURES
'WARMER' INTO THE WEEKEND AND ALSO HAS A CHANCE TO SQUEEZE OUT
SOME MORE FLURRIES AS IT DOES NOT TAKE MUCH TO DO WITH LOW TO
MID LEVEL STRATUS WITHIN THIS ENVIRONMENT. ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE
BOTH GEFS/EPS KEEP ACCUMULATION TO A MINIMUM, WITH BOTH
SHOWCASING A 10 DAY SNOWFALL TOTAL LESS THAN A COUPLE OF INCHES
WHICH TYPICALLY MEANS LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS BUT NOTHING
SUBSTANTIAL. TEMPERATURES WILL BE CLOSER TO NORMAL THROUGH THE
WEEKEND AND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK, AND THE DIFFERENCES BETWEEN
THE VARIOUS ENSEMBLES BEGINS TO SHOW BEYOND THE NORMAL 7 DAY
SCOPE OF OUR FORECAST IN THE FORM OF SIGNIFICANT DIFFERENCES IN
TEMPERATURES MOVING FORWARD. THE EPS WOULD FAVOR WARMER
TEMPERATURES ARRIVING TOWARDS THE END OF THE MONTH AND INTO
EARLY FEBRUARY IN THE MID TO UPPER 30S WHILE THE GEFS WOULD
RETURN US TO BELOW NORMAL IN THE UPPER TEENS TO MID 20S FOR
DAILY HIGHS WITHIN THE SAME TIME FRAME. THE DIFFERENCES SEEM TO
BE BASED ON THE POSITION OF THE SOUTHERN STREAM JET WHICH TO
THIS POINT IN THE WINTER HAS REMAINED WELL TO OUR SOUTH, HOWEVER
GIVEN THESE ARE EXTENDED RANGE ENSEMBLES THERE IS PLENTY OF
VARIANCE EVEN WITHIN THE MEMBERSHIP. THE MAIN CONSISTENCY HAS
BEEN DRY CONDITIONS CONTINUING WITH ONLY A HANDFUL OF EPS
MEMBERS SHOWCASING SNOWFALL MORE THAN A FEW INCHES THROUGH
FEBRUARY 5TH (COMPARED TO A TOTAL MEMBERSHIP OF 50). COMPARE
THIS TO THE GEFS WITH LESS THAN 5 MEMBERS OUT OF 30 SHOWING MORE
THAN A FEW INCHES OF SNOW WITHIN THE SAME TIME FRAME. FOR NOW,
LOOK FORWARD TO WARMER TEMPERATURES THAN WE HAVE JUST
EXPERIENCED, WITH NO SIGNIFICANT SIGNS OF SNOWFALL OR ANOTHER
SIGNIFICANT COOLDOWN CURRENTLY ON THE HORIZON.
AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY/
ISSUED AT 1110 PM CST TUE JAN 21 2025
VFR TO START FOR ALL TAF SITES, ASIDE FROM POSSIBLY AXN WHICH IS
HAVING BRIEF SNOW SHOWERS PUSHING THROUGH WESTERN MN, IN ADVANCE
OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT DUE TO SWING THROUGH THE REGION
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. CEILINGS ARE LIKELY TO DROP TO MVFR LEVEL
DURING THE DAY. THERE IS A QUESTION OF FLURRIES/-SHSN DURING THE
DAY, BUT MOISTURE WILL BE LACKING IN THE LOWER LEVELS (AKIN TO
WHAT IS ONGOING CURRENTLY WITH RADAR ECHOES NOT REACHING THE
GROUND AND THE SPORADIC VIRGA REPORT IN THE OBSERVATION). THUS,
HAVE KEPT THE TAFS DRY DURING THE TIME OF THE MVFR CEILINGS. VFR
CONDITIONS THEN EXPECTED TO RETURN LATE WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON INTO
WEDNESDAY EVENING. BREEZY S TO SW WINDS WILL DIMINISH A BIT
OVERNIGHT, THEN VEER TO W DURING THE DAY WITH THE FRONTAL
PASSAGE. WINDS EVENTUALLY BECOME NW LATE IN THIS TAF PERIOD AND
AGAIN WILL BECOME BREEZY/GUSTY WITH SPEEDS NEAR 15G25KTS.
KMSP...CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION HAVE DROPPED OFF TO THE POINT
THAT THE TAF WILL ADVERTISE DRY CONDITIONS THROUGHOUT. CANNOT
RULE OUT THE STRAY SNOW FLURRY OR SNOW SHOWER BUT ANY
ACCUMULATION WOULD BE A TRACE/DUSTING AT BEST. MVFR CEILINGS
LIKELY TO SET IN AROUND SUNRISE THEN REMAIN IN PLACE THROUGHOUT
THE DAYLIGHT HOURS WEDNESDAY, WITH VFR CEILINGS RETURNING AFTER
DUSK WEDNESDAY.
/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/
THU...VFR. WIND NW 5-10 KTS.
FRI...CHANCE MVFR/-SN. WIND S 10-15 KTS.
SAT...MVFR CIGS LIKELY. WIND W 15G25 KTS.
MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MN...NONE.
WI...NONE.
DISCUSSION...TDH
AVIATION...JPC
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