140
FXUS63 KMPX 032346
AFDMPX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
646 PM CDT MON AUG 3 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS RETURN TO THE FORECAST TONIGHT INTO
TUESDAY MORNING. A FEW STRONGER STORMS MAY PRODUCE ISOLATED
DAMAGING WIND AND HAIL ACROSS WESTERN MN.
- HIGHS IN THE UPPER 70S TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY WITH A REBOUND
INTO THE UPPER 80S AT THE CONCLUSION OF THE WORK WEEK AND OVER
THE WEEKEND.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 203 PM CDT MON AUG 3 2026
CURRENT SATELLITE SHOWING MID TO HIGH-LEVEL CLOUDS ACROSS MUCH OF
THE NORTHERN HALF OF MINNESOTA. THIS BEING OUT AHEAD OF A SURFACE
COLD FRONT THAT IS EXPECTED TO MOVE SE ACROSS MN/WI LATER TODAY
THROUGH TONIGHT. FOR THE REST OF THIS AFTERNOON, FOLKS CAN EXPECT
TEMPERATURES TO BE A BIT WARMER THAN THEY WERE THIS PAST WEEKEND.
MOST SITES WILL WARM IN TO THE MID-80S THIS AFTERNOON. IT WILL FEEL
A BIT STICKY THOUGH AS DEW POINTS CREEP NEAR 70 DEGREES, ESPECIALLY
ACROSS WESTERN MN. WIND SPEEDS WILL BE ELEVATED WITH GUSTS REACHING
25-35MPH. CLOUDS WILL GRADUALLY INCREASE FROM NORTH TO SOUTH FOR
THE REMAINDER OF THE DAY AS THE AFOREMENTIONED COLD FRONT
APPROACHES. GIVEN THE WARMER AND STICKIER AIR TO OUR WEST, THE
BETTER CHANCE FOR THE STRONGEST PRECIP LOOKS TO BE FOCUSED ACROSS
NW'RN MINNESOTA LATE THIS EVENING. THE STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS
A SLIGHT RISK (LEVEL 2 OF 5) FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THAT MAINLY
WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WIND GUSTS.
HOWEVER, GIVEN BETTER SHEAR PROFILES ACROSS NW'RN MN INTO THE
DAKOTAS, A TORNADO CANNOT BE RULED OUT FOR AREAS NW OF LITTLE FALLS
DOWN TO MORRIS. THROUGH TIME, FORCING AND INSTABILITY WANES AND
STORMS THAT CONGEAL INTO BROKEN SEGMENTS ACROSS CENTRAL MN ARE
EXPECTED TO SCATTER OUT INTO EASTERN MN/WESTERN WI BY EARLY TOMORROW
MORNING. HEAVY RAIN, ESPECIALLY IN THE EARLY ONSET OF THIS SYSTEM
WILL BE LIKELY AS PWAT VALUES ARE ELEVATED NEAR 1.8 TO 2.0". AS FOR
RAINFALL ACCUMULATION, THE BULLSEYE WILL REMAIN WELL OF TO OUR NORTH
NEAR GRAND FORKS AND THE INT'L BORDER. MOST OF US ACROSS CENTRAL AND
SOUTHERN MN COULD SEE PERHAPS A FEW HUNDREDTHS OF AN INCH WHEREAS
AREAS WEST COULD SQUEEZE OUT A CLOSER TO A QUARTER INCH. AS ALWAYS,
LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS COULD OCCUR WITH ANY THUNDERSTORMS.
BY MID-TUESDAY MORNING, MOST PRECIP SHOULD HAVE DIMINISHED AS THE
BOUNDARY STALLS OVER EASTERN MN AND WESTERN WI. TROUGHING ALOFT
GRADUALLY GUIDES THIS BOUNDARY FURTHER EASTWARD TUESDAY
AFTERNOON BUT THIS IN TURN WILL CREATE ANOTHER OPPORTUNITY FOR
CI TO OCCUR ACROSS SOUTHERN MN DOWN TO THE MN/IA BORDER. NOTHING
WIDESPREAD IS EXPECTED BUT DO HAVE 20-30 POP MENTIONS FOR THE
POTENTIAL FOR SCATTERED PULSE-LIKE SUMMERTIME CONVECTION. AT
THIS TIME, NO SEVERE WEATHER IS EXPECTED. TEMPERATURES POST-
FROPA WILL BE NOTICEABLY COOLER WITH HIGHS RANGING IN THE 70S
BOTH DAYS WITH DEW POINTS MAINLY IN THE 50S.
TEMPERATURES DO MAKE A COMEBACK LATER IN THE WEEK, UPPER-LEVEL FLOW
BECOMES MORE ZONAL WITH WARMER H85 TEMPS BEING TRAPPED JUST SOUTH OF
THE CANADIAN BORDER. HIGHS WILL REACH THE LOWER 80S BY THURSDAY AND
THEN REACHING THE UPPER 80S BY THIS WEEKEND. THE NEXT FAIR SHOT AT
PRECIP WOULDN'T ARRIVE UNTIL SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY.
AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY/
ISSUED AT 618 PM CDT MON AUG 3 2026
VFR CONDITIONS CONTINUE FOR MOST OF THE PERIOD, WITH THE MAIN
WEATHER CONCERN BEING OUR INCOMING COLD FRONT. WINDS WILL SHIFT
OUT OF THE NORTHWEST BEHIND THE FRONT, AND A PERIOD OF SHOWERS
AND STORMS ARE EXPECTED AS THE FRONT PASSES THROUGH. THERE
REMAINS A SHORT WINDOW FOR ABOUT 40 TO 45 KTS OF
SOUTH/SOUTHWESTERLY LLWS TO DEVELOP AHEAD OF THE FRONT. CIGS MAY
LOWER TO MVFR LEVELS AS THE SHOWERS MOVE THROUGH, THOUGH
CONFIDENCE IS LOW ON HOW WIDESPREAD OR PERSISTENT THEY WILL END
UP BECOMING. KAXN AND KEAU REMAIN THE MOST LIKELY TO SEE A FEW
HOURS OF MVFR CIGS. ALL SITES ARE EXPECTED TO RETURN TO VFR
CONDITIONS BY MIDDAY TUESDAY WITH NW WINDS AROUND 10 KTS.
KMSP...BEST TIMING OF -SHRA REMAINS AROUND 08-11Z, WITH A STRAY
THUNDERSTORM STILL POSSIBLE WITHIN THAT WINDOW AS WELL. IT IS
MORE LIKELY THAT THERE IS VERY LIMITED OR NO LIGHTNING AT THE
TERMINAL, BUT A NONZERO CHANCE REMAINS.
/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/
WED...VFR. WIND VRB TO SW 5-10KTS.
THU...VFR. WIND SW 5-10G20KTS.
FRI...VFR. WIND SW 5-10G20KTS.
MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MN...NONE.
WI...NONE.
DISCUSSION...DUNLEAVY
AVIATION...BED
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