984
FXUS63 KMPX 130731
AFDMPX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
231 AM CDT MON JUL 13 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- HEAT WAVE CONTINUES THROUGH MID WEEK WITH HIGHS IN THE 90S &
HEAT INDEX VALUES AROUND 100 DEGREES THROUGH AT LEAST THURSDAY,
ALONG WITH LITTLE COOLING RELIEF OVERNIGHT.
- LITTLE CHANCE FOR PRECIPITATION THIS WEEK.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 215 AM CDT MON JUL 13 2026
IN TERMS OF THE FORECAST VALUES OF THE FORECAST, VERY LITTLE HAS
CHANGED AS STRONG RIDGING BOTH AT THE SURFACE (WITH A 1020+ MB
HIGH SITTING OVER THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY INTO THE
OHIO VALLEY REGIONS) AND ALOFT (AROUND 600DAM RIDGE ATOP THE
NORTH-CENTRAL CONUS) WILL BE THE PREVAILING FEATURES THROUGH
MIDWEEK. AIRFLOW AT THE SURFACE AND MID-LEVELS CONTINUE TO BE
FAVORABLE FOR MAINTAINING HIGHS IN THE 90S ALONG WITH HEAT INDEX
VALUES FROM THE MID 90S TO LOWER 100S OVER MUCH OF THE WFO MPX
COVERAGE AREA. IN ADDITION, VERY LITTLE RELIEF WILL BE
EXPERIENCED DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS AS MINIMUM TEMPERATURES
ONLY DROP TO THE LOWER 70S OUTSIDE THE TWIN CITIES METRO AND TO
THE MIDDLE 70S WITHIN THE 7-COUNTY TC METRO. CONFIDENCE REMAINS
RATHER HIGH IN HAVING VERY LITTLE, TO NEARLY NO, DAY TO DAY
CHANGES IN THE TEMPERATURES AND HEAT INDEX VALUES THROUGH
THURSDAY EVENING.
THIS IS WHERE THE CHANGE IN THE VERBIAGE OF THE FORECAST COMES
IN. BECAUSE THERE WILL BE AT LEAST 4 CONSECUTIVE DAYS OF HEAT
INDEX VALUES REACHING HEAT ADVISORY CRITERIA, THE MESSAGING OF
CONTINUED HEAT-RELATED HAZARDS AND ILLNESSES RISES TO THE LEVEL
OF NECESSITATING A CHANGE IN THE HEADLINES FROM A HEAT ADVISORY
TO AN EXCESSIVE HEAT WARNING FOR ALL THOSE COUNTIES THAT WERE
PREVIOUSLY IN THE ADVISORY. (THE TC METRO COUNTIES WERE ALREADY
IN AN EXCESSIVE HEAT WARNING, THUS THERE IS NO CHANGE IN THE
TYPE OF HEADLINE FOR THOSE 7 COUNTIES.) IN ADDITION, HAVE
EXTENDED ALL EXISTING HEADLINES OUT THROUGH THURSDAY AS THE
FORECAST DICTATES VERY SIMILAR CONDITIONS CONTINUING THROUGH
LATE THURSDAY AFTERNOON.
THE COUNTIES IN THE FAR SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF OUR COVERAGE AREA
THAT REMAIN WITHOUT HEADLINES LOOK TO BE SUSCEPTIBLE TO AT LEAST
HEAT ADVISORY-WORTHY HEADLINES STARTING ON TUESDAY. HOWEVER,
WITH LESSER CONFIDENCE IN REACHING THOSE VALUES AND THE DURATION
OF HOW LONG THAT WILL BE, HAVE MAINTAINED KEEPING THOSE COUNTIES
FREE OF HEADLINES AT THIS TIME, SO WILL DEFER TO LATER SHIFTS,
ESPECIALLY ONCE PAST THE HEAT OF TODAY, TO DETERMINE THE NEED
FOR ANY ADDITIONAL HEADLINES. REGARDLESS OF THE TYPE OF
HEADLINE, THE FORECAST NUMBERS IN TERMS OF HIGH TEMPERATURES AND
HEAT INDEX VALUES DO SPEAK FOR THEMSELVES: WHILE WE WON'T BE
SETTING ANY DAILY RECORDS WITH THE HEAT THIS WEEK, THE MULTI-
DAY DURATION OF THE EVENT MEANS EVERYONE NEEDS TO BE MINDFUL OF
THE PROPER HEAT PRECAUTIONS & ENSURE A PLACE TO COOL DOWN.
THERE CONTINUES TO BE NO CHANCE OF RAIN ACROSS OUR COVERAGE AREA
THROUGH THURSDAY WITH THE DEEP HEAT RIDGE OVER THE AREA. MODELS
DO TRY TO BREAK IT DOWN FROM FRIDAY ONWARD, RESULTING IN A
SLIGHT DECREASE IN THE HEAT FOR THE END OF THE WEEK INTO THE
WEEKEND ALONG WITH A SLIGHT INCREASE IN THE CHANCES FOR
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS FOR THE END OF THE WEEK. WHAT MAY COME
INTO PLAY IS JUST THE RESIDUAL GROUND HEAT HELPING EVAPORATE ANY
POTENTIAL MOISTURE THAT MAY BE ADVECTED INTO THE REGION FOR THE
END OF THE WEEK INTO THE WEEKEND, THUS PROLONGING THIS DRY SPELL
OVER OUR REGION GOING INTO THE LATTER HALF OF JULY. SOME
LONGER-RANGE MODELS DO TRY TO PRODUCE SOME MORE APPRECIABLE
PRECIPITATION NEXT WEEK BUT THOSE SOLUTIONS LOOK MORE LIKE
OUTLIERS THAN HIGHER CONFIDENCE AT THIS POINT.
AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY/
ISSUED AT 621 PM CDT SUN JUL 12 2026
NO CHANGES SINCE THE PREVIOUS TAF. CLEAR SKIES AND SSW WINDS 5-15
KTS THROUGH THE PERIOD. SOME GUSTS NEAR 20 KTS ARE POSSIBLE AT AXN,
RWF, AND STC THIS AFTERNOON.
KMSP...NO CONCERNS.
/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/
TUE...VFR. WIND SW AROUND 10 KTS.
WED...VFR. WIND NW 5-10 KTS.
THU...VFR. WIND SW 5-10 KTS BECOMING S 10-15 KTS.
MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MN...EXTREME HEAT WARNING UNTIL 9 PM CDT THURSDAY FOR ANOKA-BENTON-
BLUE EARTH-BROWN-CARVER-CHIPPEWA-CHISAGO-DAKOTA-DOUGLAS-
GOODHUE-HENNEPIN-ISANTI-KANABEC-KANDIYOHI-LAC QUI PARLE-
LE SUEUR-MCLEOD-MEEKER-MILLE LACS-MORRISON-NICOLLET-POPE-
RAMSEY-REDWOOD-RENVILLE-RICE-SCOTT-SHERBURNE-SIBLEY-
STEARNS-STEVENS-SWIFT-TODD-WASHINGTON-WATONWAN-WRIGHT-
YELLOW MEDICINE.
WI...EXTREME HEAT WARNING UNTIL 9 PM CDT THURSDAY FOR BARRON-
CHIPPEWA-DUNN-EAU CLAIRE-PEPIN-PIERCE-POLK-RUSK-ST. CROIX.
DISCUSSION...JPC
AVIATION...DUNLEAVY
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.
Main Text Page