931
FXUS63 KMPX 062342
AFDMPX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
642 PM CDT THU AUG 6 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS RETURN TO THE FORECAST FRIDAY
AFTERNOON. A FEW STRONGER STORMS ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS EASTERN MN INTO
WESTERN WI.
- UNSETTLED PATTERN WILL SUPPORT ADDITION CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND
STORMS THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
- NEAR-NORMAL TEMPERATURES FOR MUCH OF NEXT WEEK.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 340 PM CDT THU AUG 6 2026
NOT MUCH TO SPEAK ON AT LEAST IN THE VERY NEAR-TERM. CURRENT
SATELLITE SHOWING A BAND OF SCATTERED UPPER-LEVEL CIRROSTRATUS ALONG
WITH SOME PATCHES OF MID-LEVEL CUMULUS ACROSS PORTIONS OF NORTHERN
DOWN INTO WESTERN MN. EARLIER TODAY, THIS AREA OF CUMULUS HAS BEEN
TRYING TO SQUEEZE OUT A FEW DROPLETS OF PRECIP HOWEVER, THEY ARE
RUNNING INTO DRY AIR AS NOTED IN OUR 12Z UA SOUNDING. PERHAPS SOME
OF YOU HAVE NOTICED THAT THERE IS A STARK CONTRAST BETWEEN THE HUE
OF BLUE SKY (OR LACK THEREOF) ON THE HORIZON AS COMPARED TO
YESTERDAY AT THIS TIME. THIS IS A RESULT OF FROM UPPER-LEVEL FLOW
CARRYING IN PACNORTHWEST WILDFIRE SMOKE. SKIES WILL HAVE A BIT OF
HAZINESS FOR AT LEAST THE NEXT 24 TO 36 HOURS BEFORE A COLD
FRONT WILL PUSH EVERYTHING OFF TO THE SOUTHEAST. TEMPERATURES
FOR THE REMAINDER OF TODAY WILL REACH NEAR 80 DEGREES AND
PERHAPS MAY NEED TO TREND BACK A DEGREE OR TWO BASED OFF OF SOME
ELEVATED SMOKE LIMITING "SOME" SOLAR RADIATION'S ABILITY TO
HEAT THE SURFACE. IT WILL FEEL A BIT STICKER TOO AS COMPARED TO
YESTERDAY, DEW POINTS HAVE CREPT BACK INTO THE LOWER 60S AS SEEN
ON WESTERN MN SURFACE OBSERVATIONS.
DEW POINTS WILL CONTINUE TO TREND UP TONIGHT INTO TOMORROW THANKS TO
A WARM ADVECTIVE REGIME OUT AHEAD OF A PARENT TROUGHING PATTERN
WHICH WILL SPAN FROM MANITOBA TO QUEBEC. THIS TROUGH FEATURES A
SURFACE COLD FRONT THAT IS EXPECTED TO SWEEP THROUGH THE
NORTHERN PLAINS FROM NW TO SE THROUGH THE COURSE OF FRIDAY.
THERE HAS BEEN SOME GUIDANCE THAT WANTS TO PRODUCE PRECIP FOR
SOUTHWESTERN MN DURING THE PRE-DAWN HOURS OF FRIDAY. HOWEVER,
DIGGING INTO FORECAST SOUNDINGS, ENOUGH SURFACE DRY AIR APPEARS
TO BE IN PLACE WHICH SHOULD SUPPRESS ALL IF ANY MOISTURE FROM
REACHING THE SURFACE WHICH SEEMS REASONABLY REPRESENTED BY THE
LATEST NBM POPS. THE CONCERN FOR STRONG STORMS STARTS LATE
MORNING TO EARLY AFTERNOON ACROSS EASTERN MN INTO WESTERN WI. IT
IS EXPECT FOR CI TO BEGIN MAINLY NEAR THE I-35 CORRIDOR AS
EARLY AS 11AM ALTHOUGH MORE LIKELY NEAR 2-3PM. MIXED LAYER
INSTABILITY NEARING 2000 J/KG, COMBINED WITH STEEP LAPSE RATES
BETWEEN 7-8KM SUPPORTS A FEW STRONGER UPDRAFTS COULD DEVELOP
WITHIN A BROKEN LINE OF STORMS. THUS THE SPC HAS MAINTAINED
THEIR MARGINAL RISK FOR SEVERE STORMS MAINLY FOR AREAS EAST OF
LINE FROM NEW ULM, MN, UP TO THE TWIN CITIES METRO, THEN UP
THROUGH TAYLORS FALLS, WI. PRIMARY THREATS WILL MAINLY BE AN
ISOLATED DAMAGING WIND GUST UP TO 60 MPH AND LARGE HAIL AROUND
1" DIAMETER. RAINFALL AMOUNTS WONT BE TOO EXCITING WITH AREAS
SEEING A FEW HUNDREDTHS TO A COUPLE TENTHS OF A INCH WITH
LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS LIMITED TO ANY STRONGER CELLS.
AFTER THE COLD FRONT SHOVES OFF TO OUR SOUTH AND EAST FRIDAY NIGHT,
WE WILL RECEIVE A SHORT BREAK FROM THE STICKER CONDITIONS ON
SATURDAY. AT LEAST FOR THE FIRST HALF OF THE DAY, DEW POINTS FALL
BACK INTO THE 50S WITH TEMPERATURES IN THE LOW TO MID 80S FOR
FORECASTED HIGHS. THE AFOREMENTIONED TROUGHING PATTERN WILL
REMAIN QUASI-STATIONARY OVER THE HUDSON BAY. THIS WILL
TRANSITION OUR UPPER- FLOW TO MORE ZONAL IN NATURE ALLOWING FOR
OF AN ACTIVE WEATHER PATTERN FOR THE WEEKEND. THE NEXT SHOT OF
RAIN CHANCES COMES SATURDAY NIGHT AS A WEAK WAVE PROVIDES A
GLANCING BLOW MAINLY ALONG THE I-90 CORRIDOR. THE FOLLOWING WAVE
COMING IN FROM THE DAKOTAS LOOKS TO HAVE BETTER LOCALIZED
FORCING FOR US THUS BETTER CHANCES OF SEEING RAIN/STORMS SUNDAY
NIGHT INTO MONDAY.
AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY/
ISSUED AT 625 PM CDT THU AUG 6 2026
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE EVENING AND OVERNIGHT HOURS.
SKIES WILL BE SKC WITH WINDS OUT OF THE S AT 5-10 KNOTS.
ELEVATED SMOKE WILL REMAIN OVER THE REGION, SAID WILDFIRE SMOKE
WILL NOT HAVE ANY VIS IMPACTS AT THE SURFACE. LIKE PREVIOUS
MORNINGS, ISOLATED AREAS OF FOG DEVELOPMENT WILL BE POSSIBLE
ESPECIALLY ACROSS WESTERN WI TERMINALS.
DURING THE MID/LATE MORNING AND AFTERNOON HOURS, A COLD FRONT
WILL MOVE ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. THE FRONT WILL MOVE NW TO SE
DURING THAT TIMEFRAME. -TSRA WILL BE POSSIBLE ALONG THE FRONT AS
IT PROGRESSES ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. THAT SAID, HIGH RES
MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW DISCREPANCIES REGARDING EXACT TIMING AND
LOCATION. HENCE THE PROB30S AT RWF, MKT, AND MSP. CONFIDENCE IN
DIRECT IMPACTS AT THESE TERMINALS IS LOW. IF -TSRA IMPACTS ARE
FELT AT TERMINALS, MVFR TO IFR FLIGHT CATEGORIES WILL BE
POSSIBLE.
AFTER FROPA, WINDS WILL BECOME NWRLY AROUND 10 KTS THROUGH THE
REMAINDER OF THE EVENING.
KMSP...LIKE PREVIOUS DISCUSSIONS, WE WILL CONTINUE MONITORING
THE LATEST TRENDS IN HIGH RES MODEL GUIDANCE REGARDING FRIDAY'S
SHOWER/STORM CHANCES. AS OF NOW, ANY DEVELOPMENT WILL OCCUR
DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS, HENCE THE PROB30 IN TAF.
/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/
SAT...VFR. WIND S/SW AT 5-10 KTS.
SUN...VFR. CHC FOR PM -TSRA. WIND SE AT 5-10 KTS.
MON...CHC MVFR -TSRA AM. WIND E BCMG N AT 5-10 KTS.
MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MN...NONE.
WI...NONE.
DISCUSSION...DUNLEAVY
AVIATION...LPR
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