810
FXUS63 KMPX 141055
AFDMPX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
555 AM CDT TUE JUL 14 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- DANGEROUS HEAT WAVE CONTINUES THIS WEEK. THIS IS A LONG
DURATION THREAT DUE TO DAILY HIGHS IN THE 90S, HEAT INDICES
APPROACHING 100 DEGREES, AND LITTLE RELIEF OVERNIGHT.
- NO PRECIPITATION EXPECTED UNTIL FRIDAY AT THE EARLIEST, AND
MAINLY FOR WESTERN WISCONSIN WITH LOW CHANCES AT THAT.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 253 AM CDT TUE JUL 14 2026
VERY MUCH A SIMILAR FORECAST AS THE PAST COUPLE DAYS WITH A
HIGHLY AMPLIFIED RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT (REACHING 601DAM
PER THE 14/00Z MPX RAOB LAST EVENING) AND RESIDUAL SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE OF NEARLY 1024MB FROM THE MID-UPPER MISSISSIPPI RIVER
VALLEY EXTENDING EASTWARD TO THE MID-ATLANTIC STATES. THERE IS A
WEAK SURFACE FRONT ANALYZED FROM THE DAKOTAS EASTWARD ACROSS FAR
NORTHERN MN INTO THE GREAT LAKES, BUT THAT FRONT WILL REMAIN TO
THE NORTH OF THE WFO MPX THROUGH FRIDAY, THUS THE EXCESSIVE
HEAT/HUMIDITY WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE END OF THE WORKWEEK. THE
COMBINATION OF HIGHS IN THE 90S WITH DEWPOINTS IN THE MID 60S
TO LOWER 70S WILL PROMOTE DAYTIME HEAT INDEX VALUES WELL INTO
THE 90S TO LOWER 100S. ADD IN LIMITED COOLING DURING THE
OVERNIGHT PERIODS (GENERALLY UPPER 60S TO MID 70S) THROUGH
THURSDAY AND POSSIBLY INTO FRIDAY WILL MEAN THE CONTINUATION OF
THE EXTREME HEAT WARNINGS AND HEAT ADVISORIES IN PLACE FOR OUR
COUNTIES. THERE IS SOME CONCERN THAT THE TEMPERATURES AND
HUMIDITY LEVELS FOR FRIDAY WILL BE SIMILAR TO THAT OF DAYS PRIOR
TO, THUS THERE IS THE POSSIBILITY THAT THE HEADLINES MAY NEED TO
BE EXTENDED AN ADDITIONAL DAY. WE WILL MONITOR THE MODEL TRENDS
AND MAKE THAT DETERMINATION IN THE NEXT 24-48 HOURS. HOWEVER,
REGARDLESS OF IF THERE IS A HEADLINE OUT FOR A GIVEN COUNTY OR
WHAT TYPE, THE HAZARDS OF AND PRECAUTIONS FOR EXCESSIVE HEAT
NEED TO BE RECOGNIZED AND ACCOUNTED FOR. AS NOTED IN THE
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION, THE LONG DURATION NATURE OF THIS ONGOING
HEAT WAVE WILL REQUIRE FOLKS TO PRACTICE HEAT SAFETY: STAY
HYDRATED, CHECK ON THE ELDERLY AND THOSE WITHOUT A/C, REMEMBER
TO CHECK THE BACKSEAT, AND LIMIT TIME OUTDOORS. THE HEAT RIDGE
WILL KEEP ANY CHANCE FOR PRECIPITATION WELL AWAY FROM THE AREA,
THUS ALONG WITH THE HEAT WILL COME A GRADUAL EXACERBATION OF
DROUGHT CONDITIONS
GOING INTO THE WEEKEND, THE AFOREMENTIONED NORTHERN FRONT LOOKS
TO DROP SOUTH INTO IA/IL, BRINGING A BREAK FROM THE EXCESSIVE
HEAT AND ALLOWING HIGH TEMPERATURES TO FALL BACK TO THE MID-
UPPER 80S FOR EARLY NEXT WEEK AND POSSIBLY CONTINUING TO DROP
INTO THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. THE HEAT DOME WILL ALSO RETROGRADE
WESTWARD TO THE CENTRAL CONUS AND FLATTEN OUT, ALLOWING WEAK
SHORTWAVES TO RIDE ATOP THE DIMINISHED RIDGE AND POSSIBLY
INTERACT WITH WHAT IS LEFT OF THE DECAYING FRONT. SMALL CHANCES
FOR PRECIPITATION OVER THE WEEKEND INTO NEXT WEEK REMAIN IN THE
FORECAST, ALBEIT MAINLY FOR WESTERN WI. LONGER-RANGE MODELS DO
INDICATE THE POTENTIAL FOR ADDITIONAL RAIN CHANCES EXTENDING
MORE INTO THE MN PORTION OF OUR COVERAGE AREA FOR THE LATTER
PORTION OF NEXT WEEK, BUT NO SIGNIFICANT SYSTEMS ARE APPARENT
ANYTIME SOON NOR A LARGE CHANGE IN THE AIR MASS OVER OUR REGION.
THE ONLY POSSIBLY SILVER LINING HERE FOR THE UPPER MIDWEST IS
THAT THE CPC OUTLOOK FOR THE 8-14 DAY PERIOD (JULY 21-27)
ADVERTISES NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURES WHILE THE WEEK 3-4 PERIOD
(JULY 25-AUGUST 7) ADVERTISES BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES.
AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY/
ISSUED AT 554 AM CDT TUE JUL 14 2026
NO CHANGE SINCE THE PREVIOUS TAF. VFR WITH SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS
THROUGH THE PERIOD. EAU AND RNH COULD SEE A BIT MORE OF A WESTERLY
COMPONENT TO ITS WIND DIRECTION AFTER 14Z. WIND SPEEDS FOR ALL SITES
WILL GENERALLY BE 10KTS OR LESS, BUT AN OCCASIONAL GUST OF AROUND 15-
20KTS IS NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION THIS AFTERNOON. THERE IS A
POTENTIAL OF FOG DEVELOPMENT LATE IN THE PERIOD TOMORROW MORNING
AROUND SUNRISE ONCE AGAIN.
KMSP...NO ADDITIONAL CONCERNS.
/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/
WED PM...VFR. WIND NW 5-10 KTS.
THU...VFR. WIND SSW 10-15 KTS.
FRI...VFR. WIND WSW 10-15KTS.
MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MN...EXTREME HEAT WARNING UNTIL 9 PM CDT THURSDAY FOR ANOKA-BENTON-
BLUE EARTH-BROWN-CARVER-CHIPPEWA-CHISAGO-DAKOTA-DOUGLAS-
GOODHUE-HENNEPIN-ISANTI-KANABEC-KANDIYOHI-LAC QUI PARLE-
LE SUEUR-MCLEOD-MEEKER-MILLE LACS-MORRISON-NICOLLET-POPE-
RAMSEY-REDWOOD-RENVILLE-RICE-SCOTT-SHERBURNE-SIBLEY-
STEARNS-STEVENS-SWIFT-TODD-WASHINGTON-WATONWAN-WRIGHT-
YELLOW MEDICINE.
HEAT ADVISORY FROM NOON TODAY TO 9 PM CDT THURSDAY FOR
FARIBAULT-FREEBORN-MARTIN-STEELE-WASECA.
WI...EXTREME HEAT WARNING UNTIL 9 PM CDT THURSDAY FOR BARRON-
CHIPPEWA-DUNN-EAU CLAIRE-PEPIN-PIERCE-POLK-RUSK-ST. CROIX.
DISCUSSION...JPC
AVIATION...DUNLEAVY
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