371
FXUS63 KMPX 241056
AFDMPX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
556 AM CDT MON AUG 24 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- SHOWERS & THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE TONIGHT INTO TUESDAY MORNING,
MAINLY ACROSS CENTRAL & WESTERN MINNESOTA.
- ANOTHER ROUND OF THUNDERSTORMS IS POSSIBLE TUESDAY AFTERNOON &
EVENING, PRIMARILY EAST OF INTERSTATE 35. A FEW STRONG TO
SEVERE STORMS ARE POSSIBLE.
- QUIET & SEASONABLE WEATHER RETURNS WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY,
WITH RAIN CHANCES INCREASING AGAIN NEXT WEEKEND.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 408 AM CDT MON AUG 24 2026
QUIET CONDITIONS ACROSS MINNESOTA & WESTERN WISCONSIN
OVERNIGHT, DESPITE TWO AREAS OF THUNDERSTORMS ONGOING ACROSS
THE EASTERN DAKOTAS. THESE CLUSTERS OF THUNDERSTORMS WILL WANE
INTO THE MORNING AS THEY MOVE EASTWARDS, WITH PERHAPS SOME
LINGERING LIGHT RAIN ACROSS SOUTHWEST MINNESOTA THROUGH MID TO
LATE MORNING. TEMPERATURES WILL AGAIN BE AROUND 80 DEGREES THIS
AFTERNOON, EXCEPT ACROSS SOUTHERN MINNESOTA WHERE CLOUD COVER
WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES A FEW DEGREES COOLER. DEW POINTS INCREASE
THROUGH THE DAY, ESPECIALLY ACROSS WESTERN MINNESOTA, LEADING
MORE MUGGY CONDITIONS COMPARED TO OVER THE WEEKEND.
A SHORTWAVE PASSES OVER THE REGION TONIGHT INTO TUESDAY WITH A
COLD FRONT PASSING THROUGH THE REGION THROUGH THE DAY ON
TUESDAY. OVERNIGHT, A CLUSTER OF THUNDERSTORMS IS EXPECTED TO
DEVELOP TONIGHT ACROSS EASTERN NORTH DAKOTA. THESE STORMS COULD
INITIALLY CONTAIN LARGE HAIL & DAMAGING WINDS, BUT ARE
EXPECTED TO WEAKEN AS THEY MOVE EASTWARDS INTO MINNESOTA AFTER
MIDNIGHT. HIGH RESOLUTION MODELS ARE STILL VARIED ON JUST HOW
LONG THESE THUNDERSTORMS MAY HOLD TOGETHER OVERNIGHT INTO
TUESDAY MORNING, WITH THE BEST CHANCES FOR ANY RAIN EXPECTED
ACROSS WEST-CENTRAL MINNESOTA. CLOUD COVER FROM THESE LINGERING
SHOWERS & THUNDERSTORMS COULD LINGER INTO THE AFTERNOON,
POTENTIALLY LIMITING THE INSTABILITY PRESENT FOR A POTENTIAL
SECOND ROUND OF STORMS TUESDAY LATE TUESDAY AFTERNOON &
EVENING. RECENT GUIDANCE HAS GENERALLY SLOWED DOWN THE PASSAGE
OF THE COLD FRONT, WHICH COULD GIVE FAR-EASTERN MINNESOTA &
WESTERN WISCONSIN MORE TIME TO DESTABILIZE TUESDAY AFTERNOON.
DEW POINTS IN THE LOW TO MID 60S COMBINED WITH TEMPERATURES
WARMING INTO THE 80S COULD SUPPORT AROUND 1000-1500 J/KG OF
CAPE, WHILE 30-40 KTS OF DEEP SHEAR WILL BE MORE THAN ENOUGH FOR
STORMS TO ORGANIZE. IF WE CAN REALIZE THIS ENVIRONMENT,
SCATTERED STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WOULD LIKELY DEVELOP
ALONG THE FRONT DURING THE AFTERNOON & MOVE EASTWARDS THROUGH
THE EVENING, WITH DAMAGING WINDS & LARGE HAIL THE MAIN THREATS.
SO WHILE CONFIDENCE IS INCREASING THAT AT LEAST A FEW STRONG TO
SEVERE STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE TUESDAY AFTERNOON & EVENING, THE
MAGNITUDE & COVERAGE OF THE THREAT STILL DEPENDS HEAVILY ON HOW
QUICKLY THE ATMOSPHERE CAN RECOVER DURING THE DAY.
THE COLD FRONT EXITS INTO WISCONSIN TUESDAY NIGHT WITH COOLER & DRIER
NORTHWEST FLOW RETURNING WEDNESDAY. A FEW SHOWERS COULD LINGER
WEDNESDAY, MAINLY CLOSER TO THE UPPER LOW ACROSS NORTHERN
MINNESOTA & WISCONSIN, BUT MOST OF OUR AREA SHOULD TREND DRY
THROUGH THE DAY. HIGH PRESSURE THEN BRINGS QUIET WEATHER
THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY WITH HIGHS GENERALLY AROUND 80 &
COMFORTABLE HUMIDITY. THE PATTERN LOOKS TO BECOME MORE ACTIVE
AGAIN HEADING INTO NEXT WEEKEND AS MULTIPLE SHORTWAVES MOVE
THROUGH THE NORTHERN PLAINS & UPPER MIDWEST. THIS SHOULD BRING
INCREASING CHANCES FOR SHOWERS & THUNDERSTORMS SOMETIME FRIDAY
NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY, BUT TIMING DIFFERENCES WITHIN THE GUIDANCE
LEAD TO LOW CONFIDENCE IN THE DETAILS THIS FAR OUT.
AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY/
ISSUED AT 548 AM CDT MON AUG 24 2026
MOSTLY CLOUDY THIS AFTERNOON WITH PATCHY MID & UPPER LEVEL CLOUD
COVER, IN ADDITION TO DIURNAL CUMULUS. SOUTHERLY WINDS AROUND
10 KTS DURING THE LATE MORNING & AFTERNOON WITH A FEW GUSTS UP
TO 20 KTS. OVERNIGHT, SCATTERED SHOWERS & THUNDERSTORMS ARE
EXPECTED TO SPREAD EASTWARDS OUT OF THE EASTERN DAKOTAS.
FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS LOW ON JUST HOW WIDESPREAD AND ROBUST THE
PRECIPITATION WILL BE, SO HAVE ONLY INTRODUCED PROB30S ACROSS
WESTERN MINNESOTA FOR NOW.
KMSP...LOW, BUT NON-ZERO, CHANCES FOR A SCATTERED SHOWER OR
THUNDERSTORM AROUND SUNRISE TUESDAY MORNING.
/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/
TUE PM...VFR, SLIGHT CHANCE IFR/-TSRA. WIND SW 10G20 KTS.
WED...VFR. WIND NW 15G25 KTS.
THU...VFR. WIND NW 5-10 KTS.
MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MN...NONE.
WI...NONE.
DISCUSSION...ETA
AVIATION...ETA
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