009
FXUS63 KMPX 150746
AFDMPX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
246 AM CDT SAT AUG 15 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- SCATTERED TO WIDELY NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND EMBEDDED STORMS THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING. DANGEROUS LIGHTNING AND BRIEF HEAVY
RAIN ARE THE MAIN IMPACTS.
- TEMPERATURES THIS WEEKEND AND INTO NEXT WILL HOVER RIGHT
AROUND THE SEASONAL AVERAGE FOR THE MIDDLE OF AUGUST.
- NEXT ROUND OF SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL BE ON TUESDAY.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 244 AM CDT SAT AUG 15 2026
DISCUSSION
OVERALL, NOT A LOT OF CHANGES IN THE FORECAST FROM PREVIOUS FORECAST
PACKAGES. A SOMEWHAT ACTIVE WEATHER PATTERN WITH CHANCES OF SHOWERS
AND STORMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE AREA TODAY, WITH ANOTHER SHOT OF
SHOWERS/STORMS TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY TIMEFRAME. TEMPERATURES THIS
WEEKEND WILL HOVER RIGHT AROUND THE SEASONAL AVERAGE THROUGH THE
PERIOD.
TODAY AND SUNDAY
FOR TODAY, STRATUS/LOW CLOUDS WILL LINGER THROUGH THE MAJORITY OF
THE DAY, KEEPING TEMPERATURES RELATIVELY COOL FOR MID AUGUST
STANDARDS. DEEP, RICH MOISTURE WILL CONTINUE TO ADVECT IN ACROSS THE
FORECAST AREA UNDER S/SWRLY LOW LEVEL FLOW. GLOBAL ENSEMBLES AND
THEIR CORRESPONDING AI ENSEMBLE SUITES SHOW PWAT ANOMALY VALUES OF
150-200 PERCENT OF NORMAL WITH VALUES ABOUT 2 INCHES. THIS ANOMALOUS
AMOUNTS OF MOISTURE SHOULD ALLOW THE ENVIRONMENT TO BE CAP-FREE.
LOOKING ALOFT IN THE MID LEVELS, A SHORTWAVE DISTURBANCE WILL
APPROACH THE REGION FROM THE WEST, ALONG WITH COLD FRONT AT THE
SURFACE. THE QUESTION AT HAND, WILL WE SEE THE LOW LEVEL STRATUS
DISSIPATE TO ALLOW FOR SUFFICIENT WARMING DURING THE AFTERNOON
HOURS? THAT SAID, EVEN WITH BROKEN TO OVERCAST SKIES THROUGH THE
DAY, SCATTERED TO POTENTIALLY NUMEROUS SHOWERS WILL BE LIKELY, HENCE
THE INCREASE IN POPS WITHIN OUR GRIDDED FORECAST. EMBEDDED HEAVIER
RAIN AND STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE GIVEN THE MOISTURE MOISTURE PROFILE
AND MEAGER BUT SUFFICIENT FORCING IN PLACE. WITH WEAK SHEAR AND
POOR MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES IN PLACE, THE PROBABILITY OF SEVERE
WEATHER REMAINS LOW.
AFTER FROPA SATURDAY EVENING, MUCH DRIER AIR WILL INFILTRATE THE
AREA FROM THE NORTHWEST WITH DP TEMPS DROPPING BACK INTO THE UPPER
50S SUNDAY AFTERNOON. THAT SAID, SUNDAY LOOKS TO BE QUITE PLEASANT
WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE UPPER 70S TO AROUND 80 DEGREES WITH
DECREASING CLOUD COVERAGE THROUGH THE DAY.
NEXT WEEK
ON MONDAY, PLEASANT WEATHER CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH MOST OF
THE DAY WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE LOW 80S AND DP TEMPS IN THE
UPPER 50S TO LOW 60S. FOR TUESDAY, DEEPENING UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER
ONTARIO AND HUDSON BAY WILL PROMOTE INCREASED S/SWRLY LOW LEVEL FLOW
WITH DP TEMPERATURES INCREASING BACK INTO THE 60S. THIS COUPLED WITH
INCREASING ENERGY ALOFT WILL LEAD TO ANOTHER ROUND OF SHOWERS AND
STORMS ON TUESDAY. LATEST ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE AND GUIDANCE FROM OUR
COLLEAGUES AT THE WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER PAINT A CORRIDOR OF 1-2"
OF RAIN ACROSS SOUTHERN MN. BEING A HANDFUL DAYS OUT, SOME OF THE
FINER DETAILS WILL NEED TO GET IRONED OUT. TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE
REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD WILL HANG OUT IN THE UPPER 70S.
AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SUNDAY/
ISSUED AT 1159 PM CDT FRI AUG 14 2026
MVFR TO IFR CONDITIONS CONTINUE THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT WITH CIGS
AROUND 1-3 KFT, WITH AREAS BELOW 1 KFT. THIS THICK LAYER OF LOW
STRATUS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE MORNING, WITH IMPROVEMENT
DURING THE LATE MORNING AND AFTERNOON HOURS. WINDS GENERALLY OUT
OF THE SE AT 7-12 KNOTS WITH GUSTS TO 20 KNOTS WILL PERSIST
THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH WIND DIRECTION BECOMING S TO SW DURING
THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING. ANOTHER ROUND OF SHOWERS AND ISOLATED
STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING,
CONFIDENCE IS LOW REGARDING STORM POTENTIAL SO NO MENTION OF TS.
PROB30 FOR -SHRA HAS BEEN ADDED DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON AND
EVENING TIMEFRAME.
KMSP...MVFR TO IFR CIGS PREVAIL THROUGH THE MID MORNING HOURS
WITH IMPROVEMENTS BY AFTERNOON. ANOTHER ROUND OF SHOWERS WILL BE
POSSIBLE LATE AFTERNOON AND EVENING TIMEFRAME.
/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/
SUN...VFR. WIND NW 10KTS.
MON...VFR, CHC -TSRA LATE. WIND SW 5-10KTS.
TUE...MVFR/-SHRA LIKELY, CHC IFR/-TSRA. WIND SW 5-10KTS.
MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MN...NONE.
WI...NONE.
DISCUSSION...LPR
AVIATION...LPR
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