196
FXUS63 KMPX 290840
AFDMPX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
240 AM CST MON DEC 29 2025
KEY MESSAGES
- ACCUMULATING SNOW IS ENDING, HOWEVER TRAVEL REMAINS HAZARDOUS
DUE TO GUSTY WINDS, BLOWING SNOW AND ICY ROADS. ALLOW EXTRA
TIME IF COMMUTING THIS MORNING.
- A FEW CLIPPERS WILL BRING THE CHANCE FOR MINOR SNOW ACCUMULATIONS
TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY.
- COLD START TO THE NEW YEAR WITH SUB-ZERO MORNING LOWS AND
HIGHS IN THE SINGLE DIGITS. TEMPERATURES MODIFY BACK INTO THE
20S NEXT WEEKEND.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 240 AM CST MON DEC 29 2025
THE POWERHOUSE SURFACE CYCLONE THAT PRODUCED SEVERAL INCHES OF
ACCUMULATING SNOW AND BLIZZARD CONDITIONS ACROSS THE UPPER MIDWEST
CONTINUES TO DEEPEN EARLY THIS MORNING. LATEST OBSERVATIONS DEPICT A
LOW 980S MB SURFACE LOW MOVING TO THE NORTHEAST OVER LAKE HURON.
FARTHER WEST, DEFORMATION SNOWFALL IS ENDING ACROSS SOUTHEASTERN MN
AND WESTERN WI. WE'LL HAVE TO WAIT FOR THE MORNING ROUND UP OF
COOP/COCORAHS REPORTS TO HAVE A FULL GRASP OF THE SNOW FOOTPRINT,
HOWEVER EARLY REPORTS INDICATE THAT 5-7" OR SO FELL ACROSS THE TWIN
CITIES METRO WITH SLIGHTLY HIGHER AMOUNTS ACROSS WESTERN WI (EAU
CLAIRE CHECKS IN WITH 8.5" ON THE MIDNIGHT CLIMATE REPORT). OF NOTE,
REPORTS HAVE BEEN SPARSE ACROSS MUCH OF SOUTHERN MN WHERE A BLIZZARD
WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT. WOULD TEND TO THINK THAT THE STRONG WINDS
(STILL GUSTING BETWEEN 40-50 MPH AND REDUCING VISIBILITY BELOW 1/2
MILE IN SPOTS) HAVE PLAYED A ROLL IN A RATHER CHALLENGING SNOW
OBSERVATION ACROSS THIS PORTION OF THE FORECAST AREA THUS FAR DUE TO
BLOWING AND DRIFTING. WHILE THE SNOW IS MOVING OUT, SIGNIFICANT
IMPACTS TO TRAVEL REMAIN. AS OF 2 AM, MNDOT'S 511 MAP ADVERTISES A
"TRAVEL NOT ADVISED" STATUS ACROSS MANY OF THE COUNTIES WITHIN THE
BLIZZARD WARNING (WEST CENTRAL/SOUTH CENTRAL MN). FARTHER EAST, ROAD
CONDITIONS ARE REPORTED AS PARTIALLY TO COMPLETELY COVERED WITH ICE
AND SNOW. ALL TO SAY THAT DESPITE THE CESSATION OF ACCUMULATING
SNOW, TRAVEL CONDITIONS REMAIN VERY HAZARDOUS AND A SLOW MORNING
COMMUTE IS ON THE WAY FOR MUCH OF THE REGION.
WE HAVE OPTED TO KEEP THE BLIZZARD/WINTER STORM HEADLINES IN PLACE
THROUGH 12Z AS NORTHWESTERLY WINDS REMAIN STRONG AMID THE ONGOING
COLD ADVECTION. FORECAST SOUNDINGS ILLUSTRATE A GRADUAL WEAKENING OF
THE SURFACE WINDS THROUGH THE DAY, THOUGH WILL STILL CONTEND WITH
PATCHY BLOWING SNOW. MPX'S 6Z OBSERVATION OF 1.3" AT 0.07" LIQUID
EQUATES TO AN ~18:1 SLR -- EVIDENCE OF A RATHER MOBILE TOP LAYER
OF POWDER. PATCHY BLOWING SNOW, ICY/SNOW COVERED ROAD CONDITIONS,
AND TEMPERATURES IN THE SINGLE DIGITS TO LOWER TEENS SUPPORT
THE PERSISTENCE OF TRAVEL IMPACTS TODAY. WITH THIS IN MIND,
IT'S LIKELY THAT WE WILL TRANSITION HEADLINES TO A WINTER
WEATHER ADVISORY FOLLOWING THE CONCLUSION OF THE CURRENT
HAZARDS.
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL YIELD A COLD AND QUIET NIGHT AHEAD, WITH
LOWS RANGING FROM A FEW DEGREES BELOW ZERO TO THE LOWER SINGLE
DIGITS. A CLIPPER WITHIN THE NORTHWESTERLY FLOW IS PROGGED TO TRACK
FROM NORTHERN MN SOUTHEAST TOWARDS CENTRAL MN DURING THE DAY ON
TUESDAY. THIS TRACK WILL FAVOR LOCATIONS ALONG AND NORTH OF I-94 FOR
MINOR SNOW ACCUMULATIONS, SAY UP TO AN INCH OR SO. LOCATIONS SOUTH
AND WEST OF I-94 WILL BE POSITIONED WITHIN AN WING OF WARM ADVECTION
THAT LOOKS TO WARM TEMPERATURES TO NEAR/ABOVE FREEZING TUESDAY
AFTERNOON. THE "WARM UP" SHOULD BE RATHER BRIEF, AS COLD ADVECTION
TRAILING THE CLIPPER WILL DROP MORNING LOWS BACK INTO THE SINGLE
DIGITS TO TEENS HEADING INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING. THE ACTIVE
NORTHWESTERLY FLOW PATTERN IS FORECAST TO SEND ANOTHER CLIPPER
THROUGH THE REGION ON WEDNESDAY. TRUE TO THE CONCEPTUAL PATTERN,
THIS CLIPPER LOOKS TO TRACK A BIT FARTHER SOUTH WHICH WOULD BRING A
BETTER CHANCE FOR AN INCH OR TWO OF SNOW ACCUMULATION TO MUCH OF
CENTRAL/SOUTHERN MN AND WESTERN WI. NEW NBM FEATURES 30-40 POPS
WHICH WILL NEED TO BE BOOSTED SHOULD CONFIDENCE INCREASE IN A LOWER
QPF/HIGHER POP ROUND OF WINTRY WEATHER. COLD AIR ADVECTION BEHIND
THIS SECOND CLIPPER WILL DROP TEMPERATURES BELOW ZERO TO OPEN THE
NEW YEAR THURSDAY MORNING. WE'LL STRUGGLE TO WARM OUT OF THE SINGLE
DIGITS ON NYD AND LIKELY SEE SOME SUB-ZERO TEMPERATURES FRIDAY
MORNING. LARGE SCALE RIDGING BUILDS OVER THE CENTRAL CONUS HEADING
INTO THE FIRST WEEKEND OF 2026 WHICH WILL SUPPORT MID-LEVEL WARM
ADVECTION AND A RETURN TO TEMPERATURES IN THE 20S FOR HIGHS.
AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY/
ISSUED AT 1101 PM CST SUN DEC 28 2025
CONDITIONS ARE IMPROVING FROM NORTH TO SOUTH AS SNOW GRADUALLY
TAPERS OFF TONIGHT. BIGGEST CHANGE TO THE FORECAST IS A
DECREASE IN WINDS/GUSTS ACROSS EASTERN MN AND WESTERN WI.
BLOWING SNOW CONCERNS REMAIN ACROSS THE REGION INTO MONDAY
MORNING, ESPECIALLY ACROSS WESTERN AND SOUTHERN MINNESOTA. THERE
IS STILL UNCERTAINTY WITH HOW MUCH WE SCATTER OUT TOMORROW
AFTERNOON, SO HAVE ADJUSTED VFR CONDITIONS ABOUT 4-6 HOURS LATER
AT MOST SITES.
KMSP...WE NOW EXPECT GUSTS TO REMAIN AT OR BELOW 30 KTS
OVERNIGHT, IMPROVING THROUGHOUT THE DAY. A RETURN TO VFR
CONDITIONS IS STILL EXPECTED, THOUGH WE HAVE ADJUSTED BACK TO
00Z DUE TO LOWER CONFIDENCE IN SCATTERING OUT DURING THE
AFTERNOON.
/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/
TUE...VFR, SLIGHT CHC MVFR/-SN. WIND SW TO NW 5-10KTS.
WED...MVFR, CHC IFR/-SN. WIND NW 10-15KTS.
THU...VFR. WIND NW 5-10KTS.
MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MN...BLIZZARD WARNING UNTIL 6 AM CST EARLY THIS MORNING FOR
CHIPPEWA-DOUGLAS-KANDIYOHI-LAC QUI PARLE-MCLEOD-MEEKER-
POPE-REDWOOD-RENVILLE-STEARNS-STEVENS-SWIFT-TODD-WRIGHT-
YELLOW MEDICINE.
WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 6 AM CST EARLY THIS MORNING FOR
BENTON-KANABEC-MILLE LACS-MORRISON-SHERBURNE.
WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 9 AM CST THIS MORNING FOR ANOKA-
CHISAGO-DAKOTA-GOODHUE-HENNEPIN-ISANTI-RAMSEY-WASHINGTON.
BLIZZARD WARNING UNTIL 9 AM CST THIS MORNING FOR BLUE EARTH-
BROWN-CARVER-FARIBAULT-FREEBORN-LE SUEUR-MARTIN-NICOLLET-
RICE-SCOTT-SIBLEY-STEELE-WASECA-WATONWAN.
WI...WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 9 AM CST THIS MORNING FOR BARRON-
CHIPPEWA-DUNN-EAU CLAIRE-PEPIN-PIERCE-POLK-RUSK-ST. CROIX.
DISCUSSION...STRUS
AVIATION...BED
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.
Main Text Page