713
FXUS63 KMPX 021154
AFDMPX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
554 AM CST MON FEB 2 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- A MOSTLY QUIET WEEK AHEAD WITH VARYING TEMPERATURES AND A FEW
LOW CHANCES FOR SNOW.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 258 AM CST MON FEB 2 2026
EXTENSIVE MID LEVEL STRATUS IS BEGINNING TO BREAK UP THIS
MORNING ACROSS WESTERN AND CENTRAL MN. THIS TREND SHOULD
CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS, BUT HIGHER CLOUDS WILL
BEGIN INCREASING LATER THIS MORNING AS THE NEXT WAVE APPROACHES
FOR THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. SCATTERED FLURRIES WILL BE
POSSIBLE AS LONG AS THE LOWER STRATUS IS IN PLACE FOR THE NEXT
FEW HOURS. THE NEXT WAVE WILL TRACK FROM MT TO EASTERN SD BY
THIS EVENING AND THEN TO SOUTHERN IA EARLY TUESDAY MORNING. SOME
LIGHT SNOW IS POSSIBLE ACROSS SOUTHWESTERN MN LATE THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING, BUT AMOUNTS WILL BE NEGLIGIBLE. A FEW
FLURRIES ARE POSSIBLE FARTHER NORTHEAST, BUT DRY AIR UNDER THE
MID LEVEL CLOUD DECK WILL KEEP CHANCES LOW. ANOTHER WEAK SYSTEM
WILL DIVE SOUTH ACROSS MN TUESDAY NIGHT AND EARLY WEDNESDAY,
BRINGING ANOTHER LOW CHANCE FOR LIGHT SNOW OR FLURRIES WEST OF
I-35.
MODERATING TEMPERATURES WEDNESDAY AND ESPECIALLY THURSDAY WILL
OCCUR THANKS TO A CLIPPER TRACKING ACROSS CENTRAL OR SOUTHERN
CANADA. LATEST GUIDANCE IS QUITE A BIT FARTHER NORTH THAN IN
PREVIOUS DAYS, SO POPS CONTINUE TO DECLINE. THIS SHIFT ALSO
INCREASES THE CHANCE OF BREAKING 40 FOR HIGHS THURSDAY TO ABOUT
60 PERCENT ACROSS SOUTHWESTERN MN. THE SYSTEM WILL SEND A COLD
FRONT SOUTH LATE THURSDAY NIGHT OR FRIDAY WHICH WILL KNOCK
TEMPERATURES BACK THROUGH SATURDAY. THE RIDGE WILL BUILD BACK
EARLY NEXT WEEK AND TEMPERATURES SHOULD REBOUND BACK INTO THE
30S OR 40S.
AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z TUESDAY/
ISSUED AT 554 AM CST MON FEB 2 2026
CLEARING IS PROGRESSING SOUTHEAST ACROSS EASTERN MN AND WESTERN
WI EARLY THIS MORNING. A FEW MID-HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS ARE
STREAMING ACROSS SOUTHERN MN. ANOTHER MID LEVEL CLOUD DECK
ACROSS ND WILL BUILD SOUTHEAST LATER TODAY. LOW CLOUDS ACROSS
NORTHERN MN AND ND MAY TRY TO PUSH BACK IN OVERNIGHT, SO
INCLUDED A LINE TO SHOW THAT POSSIBILITY. A FEW SNOW SHOWERS OR
FLURRIES ARE POSSIBLE LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING ACROSS
SOUTHWESTERN MN.
KMSP...CLEARING IS IMMINENT AND MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES ARE EXPECTED
THIS MORNING, FOLLOWED BY INCREASING MID LEVEL CLOUDS THIS
AFTERNOON. THERE IS A LOW CHANCE SOME SCT DIURNAL CU AT MVFR
LEVELS MAY DEVELOP LATER THIS MORNING, BUT CONFIDENCE IS NOT
HIGH ENOUGH TO INCLUDE IN THIS TAF ISSUANCE.
/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/
TUE...VFR. WIND NE 5KTS.
WED...VFR. WIND W 5-10 KTS.
THU...VFR, CHC MVFR. WIND S 5-10 KTS BCMG SW 10-15G20KTS.
MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MN...NONE.
WI...NONE.
DISCUSSION...BORGHOFF
AVIATION...BORGHOFF
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