083
FXUS63 KMPX 071755
AFDMPX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
1255 PM CDT SUN JUN 7 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- AIR QUALITY ALERT FOR MUCH OF MINNESOTA THROUGH THIS EVENING.
- ANOTHER ROUND OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS LATE THIS AFTERNOON
INTO MONDAY.
- TROPICAL-LIKE AIRMASS SETTLES IN BY MONDAY. THIS WILL LEAD TO
THE POTENTIAL FOR SEVERAL ROUNDS OF THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH MID-WEEK.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 241 AM CDT SUN JUN 7 2026
A RATHER PLEASANT JUNE NIGHT WITH TEMPERATURES HANGING ONTO THE
UPPER 60S AND LOWER 70S ACROSS THE REGION EARLY THIS SUNDAY MORNING.
IT WILL BE AN UNEVENTFUL START TO THE DAY WITH AN UPTICK IN HIGH
CLOUDS AND SOUTHERLY WINDS AFTER DAYBREAK. TEMPERATURES WILL CLIMB
BACK INTO THE 80S BY LUNCHTIME AND SFC DEW POINTS WILL BEGIN TO
CREEP BACK INTO THE MID 60S. AN IMPRESSIVE SURGE OF MOISTURE WILL
PUSH NORTHWARD INTO SOUTHERN MINNESOTA. THIS IS SET IN MOTION BY A
PROMINENT MID-LEVEL TROUGH THAT WILL MOVE FROM THE CENTRAL PLAINS
THROUGH THE UPPER MIDWEST OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. THIS WILL PROVIDE
FORCING TO KICK START PRECIPITATION THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING THROUGH
MONDAY MORNING. THIS SET UP SHOULD NOT PRODUCE MUCH IN THE WAY OF
SEVERE WEATHER LOCALLY, BUT THERE IS A SIGNAL FOR THE POTENTIAL OF
SOME LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL POSSIBLE. THERE ARE A FEW DIFFERENT WAYS
TO VISUALIZE THE MOISTURE TRANSPORT IN MODEL GUIDANCE: 1) INTEGRATED
VAPOR TRANSPORT, WHICH SHOWS THE BEST PARAMETER SPACE THIS EVENING
INTO EARLY MONDAY ACROSS THE UPPER MS VALLEY. 2) PWAT AND PWAT
PERCENT OF NORMAL. WE START THE DAY WITH PWAT VALUES IN 0.8 TO 1.1"
THAT IS RIGHT AROUND WHERE WE'D EXPECT TO BE BASED ON NORMAL
CLIMATOLOGICAL VALUES. BY 18Z WE SEE VALUES BEGIN TO CLIMB INTO THE
1.5" TO 1.75" RANGE ALONG I-90 AND UP TO 2.0" ACROSS MUCH OF THE
REGION BY 00Z THIS EVENING. BOTH OF THESE SUGGEST THAT THE
ATMOSPHERE WILL HAVE PLENTY OF MOISTURE TO WORK WITH. FURTHERMORE,
FORECAST SOUNDINGS FROM HIRES GUIDANCE HIGHLIGHT A LONG AND SKINNY
CAPE PROFILE THAT WOULD SUPPORT THE POTENTIAL FOR EFFICIENT
RAINMAKERS THIS EVENING INTO MONDAY. THE FORCING ISN'T GREAT, BUT
SHOULD BE SUFFICIENT FOR AT LEAST SOME CONCERN OF HEAVY RAIN. THE
AREA OF GREATEST CONCERN FOR NOW IS ACROSS SOUTHERN AND EASTERN MN
INTO FAR WESTERN WI. THESE AREAS COULD SEE MULTIPLE ROUNDS OF
SHOWERS (AND THUNDERSTORMS) CAPABLE OF REPEATED ROUNDS OF HEAVY
RAIN. QPF IS TRICKY BUT HAS TRENDED HIGHER OVER THE LAST 24 HOURS AS
THE HIRES MODELS GET A BETTER HANDLE OF THE EXPECTED COVERAGE.
CURRENT QPF FOOTPRINT IS 0.50" TO 1.0" FROM S MN TO THE TWIN CITIES.
THIS FOOTPRINT WILL HAVE THE POTENTIAL FOR LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS OF
2"+ POSSIBLE. 0.25" TO 0.5" LIKELY OVER W WI AND C MN. LIGHTER
AMOUNTS ARE FORECAST ACROSS WESTERN MN AS THEY MISS MUCH OF THE
SHOWERS OVERNIGHT.
MONDAY WILL GRADUALLY DRY OUT BY EARLY AFTERNOON. HIGHS REMAIN IN
THE 80S AND THE HUMIDITY WILL STICK AROUND THROUGH WEDNESDAY.
ATTENTION WILL TURN TO MONDAY EVENING/NIGHT TIME FRAME AS THERE IS A
PRETTY GOOD SIGNAL ACROSS GUIDANCE (HIRES/GLOBAL/AIFS) FOR POTENTIAL
MCS MOVING INTO THE REGION. TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY IS WHERE THE
FORECAST TURNS MORE DYNAMIC. ALOFT, THERE IS EXCELLENT MODEL
AGREEMENT SHOWING POTENT RIDGING AMPLIFYING ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND
EASTERN CONUS. THIS WILL SET UP A BROAD AREA OF IMPRESSIVE HEAT
ACROSS THE EASTERN HALF OF CONUS. LOCALLY, OUR TEMPERATURE FORECAST
CONTINUES TO TREND COOLER GIVEN THE LIKELIHOOD OF NUMEROUS ROUNDS OF
CONVECTION BETWEEN MONDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT. THE POTENTIAL
FOR EXTREME HEAT DOESN'T LOOK AS FAVORABLE GIVEN THE REPEATED ROUNDS
OF STORMS SHOULD KEEP THE WARM FRONT SUPPRESSED TO THE SOUTH OF US.
SPC DAY 3 SWO INTRODUCES A SLIGHT RISK (2 OF 5) OVER W MN AND A
MARGINAL RISK (1 OF 5) OVER C & E MN. INITIAL SUPERCELLS OVER THE
DAKOTAS WILL LIKELY CONGEAL INTO AN MCS THAT'LL TRACK INTO MN
TUESDAY EVENING/NIGHT WITH WIND AND HAIL AS THE PRIMARY CONCERNS.
FOR WEDNESDAY, THE LIKELIHOOD OF REMNANT CONVECTION AND CONVECTIVE
DEBRIS WEDNESDAY MORNING IS HIGH. THIS SHOULD KEEP OUR TEMPERATURES
IN THE 80S RATHER THAN THE 90S THAT THE NBM IS INSISTING ON. LOW
LEVEL FLOW OUT OF THE SOUTH WILL BE STRONG ENOUGH TO REPLENISH
INSTABILITY BY WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON, SETTING THE STAGE FOR ANOTHER
ROUND OF CONVECTION. SEVERE CHANCES PEAK ON WEDNESDAY AS THE RIDGE
SHIFTS EAST AND TROUGHING WILL PUSH AN POTENT COLD FRONT THROUGH BY
LATE AFTERNOON. SPC DAY 4 HIGHLIGHTS THE ENTIRE AREA FOR SEVERE
CONCERN. SFC DEW POINTS WILL PUSH INTO THE MID 70S WITH TEMPERATURES
IN THE MID TO UPPER 80S STILL LIKELY. THIS WILL PLACE A HIGHLY
UNSTABLE ATMOSPHERE IN PLACE AHEAD OF A POTENT COLD FRONT. THE COLD
FRONTAL PASSAGE SHOULD PROVIDE ENOUGH FORCING TO BREAK ANY CAPPING
IN PLACE WITH ANY INITIAL CONVECTION QUICKLY GROWING UPSCALE INTO
MCSS. THE FINER DETAILS WILL NEED TIME TO IRON OUT BUT WEDNESDAY
SHOULD PROVE A BUSY DAY ACROSS THE REGION. COLDER & DRIER AIR ARRIVE
THURSDAY AND WILL STICK AROUND INTO NEXT WEEKEND. PRECIPITATION
CHANCES TREND DOWN WITH HIGHS BACK IN THE 70S AND LOWER 80S. THIS
WILL BE A MUCH NEEDED BREAK AFTER A RATHER ACTIVE WEEK AHEAD!
AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z TUESDAY/
ISSUED AT 1240 PM CDT SUN JUN 7 2026
A FEW THUNDERSTORMS HAVE DEVELOPED ACROSS SOUTHERN MINNESOTA
EARLY THIS AFTERNOON. THIS ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN WIDELY
SCATTERED TO ISOLATED IN NATURE, SO HAVE OPTED TO GO WITH THE
PROB30 MENTION. OVERNIGHT, SHOWERS WILL BECOME MORE WIDESPREAD
WITH MVFR CIGS/VIS EARLY MONDAY MORNING. SOME IFR CIGS ARE
EXPECTED AS WELL AS ADDITIONAL THUNDER CHANCES THROUGH TOMORROW
MORNING. MOST SITES SHOULD RETURN TO AT LEAST MVFR BY THE END OF
THE PERIOD. WINDS REMAIN OUT OF THE SOUTHEAST AROUND 10KTS.
KMSP...GIVEN THE EARLY DEVELOPMENT OF THE STORMS TO THE SOUTH,
HAVE ADJUSTED THE PROB30 WINDOW TO START A LITTLE EARLIER. ALSO
FELT THAT VCTS WAS JUSTIFIED DUE TO THE VERY SCATTERED/ISOLATED
NATURE OF THESE CELLS. WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR TRENDS AND MAKE
ADJUSTMENTS TO THE TAF AS NEEDED. OVERNIGHT, ANOTHER ROUND OF
SHOWERS ARRIVES WITH MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS. KEPT THE MONDAY
MORNING PROB30 FOR THUNDER GOING FROM THE PREVIOUS FORECAST.
CONDITIONS IMPROVE BY TOMORROW AFTERNOON.
/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/
TUE...VFR. WIND SE 5-10 KTS.
WED...VFR, BCMG MVFR W/TSRA. WIND S 15-20G30 KTS.
THU...VFR. WIND W 10-15KTS.
MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MN...NONE.
WI...NONE.
DISCUSSION...BPH
AVIATION...DYE
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