428
FXUS63 KMPX 260010
AFDMPX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
710 PM CDT SUN OCT 25 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- MULTIPLE CHANCES FOR RAIN THROUGH NEXT WEEK. HEAVIEST RAINFALL
AMOUNTS EXPECTED ACROSS WESTERN AND CENTRAL MN MONDAY AND
MONDAY NIGHT.
- FOLLOWING A COOLDOWN EARLY IN THE PERIOD, THE FORECAST IS
TRENDING WARMER LATER IN THE WEEK.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 237 PM CDT SUN OCT 25 2026
WIDESPREAD LIGHT RAIN HAS DEVELOPED ACROSS WEST CENTRAL MN WITH
A FEW SHOWERS EXTENDING TO THE SOUTHEAST INTO THE MANKATO AND
ALBERT LEA AREAS. COVERAGE OF THIS RAIN IS FAR EXCEEDING MODEL
OUTPUT, BUT A DRY BOUNDARY LAYER SHOULD LIMIT MOST RAINFALL
TOTALS TO A TENTH OF AN INCH OR LESS. COVERAGE WILL DECREASE
THIS EVENING BUT OCCASIONAL LIGHT RAIN IS EXPECTED ACROSS THE
REGION, PARTICULARLY ACROSS WESTERN MN.
AN UPPER LOW OVER THE FOUR CORNERS REGION THIS AFTERNOON WILL
ADVANCE TO SD MONDAY AFTERNOON. AS IT APPROACHES, RAIN COVERAGE
WILL INCREASE ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS TO SOUTHERN AND WESTERN
MN BY TONIGHT. THE SURFACE LOW WILL TRACK FROM EASTERN NE TO
CENTRAL MN MONDAY INTO TUESDAY. THIS IS A SHIFT TO THE EAST FROM
YESTERDAY. THE BEST MOISTURE TRANSPORT WILL BE CONFINED TO
MN AND IS WHERE THE BEST CHANCES FOR A SOAKING RAIN IS FORECAST.
RAINFALL TOTALS OF AROUND AN INCH ARE LIKELY ACROSS WESTERN AND
CENTRAL MN WITH AMOUNTS TAPERING OFF TO THE SOUTHEAST. THE
SYSTEM WILL EXIT TO THE NORTH EARLY TUESDAY. ANOTHER DISTURBANCE
WILL QUICKLY FOLLOW TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT,
BRINGING THE NEXT CHANCE FOR SHOWERS. AMOUNTS WITH THIS ROUND
WILL BE LIGHTER - A QUARTER INCH OR LESS.
A RIDGE WILL REMAIN PARKED OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN U.S. THROUGH
THE REST OF THE FORECAST PERIOD. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING
INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS WILL LEAD TO A DRIER FORECAST THURSDAY,
BUT MOISTURE WILL INCREASE ON THE BACKSIDE OF THE HIGH FRIDAY
AND INTO THE WEEKEND. PREDICTABILITY BEYOND MIDWEEK REMAINS LOW
WITH CONSIDERABLE SPREAD IN THE GUIDANCE.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE COOL MONDAY, BUT THEN WILL WARM BACK TO
THE 60S AND QUITE POSSIBLY 70S FROM TUESDAY ONWARD. GIVEN THE
CURRENT FORECAST NUMBERS, IT APPEARS MSP WILL FINISH THIS MONTH
AS THE 2ND WARMEST OCTOBER ON RECORD.
AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY/
ISSUED AT 655 PM CDT SUN OCT 25 2026
FORECAST REMAINS ON TRACK WITH MVFR SHRA/RA TO MOVE FROM SW TO
NE THROUGH THE COURSE OF TOMORROW MORNING. IN THE NEAR TERM
AREAS OF RAIN SHOWERS CONTINUE TO FALL NEAR AXN AND STC
NORTHWARD. THIS AREA OF SHOWERS WILL MOVE OFF TO THE NE OVER THE
NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS. SKIES WILL REMAIN OVERCAST AT LOW-VFR
HEIGHTS OVERNIGHT. THE NEXT ROUND OF RAIN SHOULD BEGIN
APPEARING ON RADAR NEAR MKT AND RWF AS EARLY AS 07-12Z HOWEVER,
SURFACE DRY AIR COULD CAUSE A LAG TO WHEN PRECIP ACTUALLY
FALLS. SATURATION FROM LATEST FORECAST SOUNDINGS LOOK TO BE
REACHED AFTER 13Z FOR THOSE SITES, WHILE REMAINING SITES SEE
BETTER SATURATION CLOSER TO 18Z. THUS, HAVE UPGRADED PREVIOUS
PROB30 GROUPS TO PREVAILING SHRA/RA MENTIONS. SITES CAN EXPECT
TO REMAIN AT LEAST MVFR AND POTENTIALLY IFR CATEGORIES FOR LOW
CIGS FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD. WINDS WILL REMAIN LIGHT
OUT OF THE NORTH TONIGHT BEFORE SHIFTING NORTHEAST TOMORROW
MORNING, THEN EAST BY THE AFTERNOON AT A SPEED BETWEEN 7-10KTS.
KMSP...ADJUSTED TIMING FOR THE ARRIVAL OF SHRA TO MSP TO REFLECT
LATEST HI-RES GUIDANCE. A SURFACE DRY LAYER WILL LIMIT MOST
PRECIP REACHING THE TARMAC MONDAY MORNING. AFTER 18Z, THE
PROFILE BECOMES SATURATED TO WHERE MVFR RA WILL PREVAIL THROUGH
THE REST OF THE PERIOD. IT IS POSSIBLE THAT IFR CIGS COULD BE
REALIZED LATE EVENING TOMORROW BUT LACKED CONFIDENCE TO INCLUDE
IFR MENTIONS THIS PERIOD. N WINDS TONIGHT SHIFTING NE TOMORROW
MORNING THEN SHIFTING AGAIN TO THE EAST BY THE AFTERNOON.
/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/
TUE...CHC MORNING -SHRA/MVFR. WIND SE 10-15G20KTS.
WED...CHC -SHRA/MVFR. WIND SW 10-15KTS.
THU...VFR. WIND N 5-10KTS.
MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MN...NONE.
WI...NONE.
DISCUSSION...BORGHOFF
AVIATION...DUNLEAVY
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