511
FXUS63 KMPX 062338
AFDMPX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
638 PM CDT MON JUL 6 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP OVER EASTERN NORTH DAKOTA INTO NORTHWEST
MINNESOTA THIS AFTERNOON. THESE WILL MOVE INTO WESTERN AND
CENTRAL MN THIS EVENING, WITH SOME STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS
BEING POSSIBLE BEFORE THEY DISSIPATE OVERNIGHT.
- THERE ARE SLIGHT RISKS FOR BOTH SEVERE WEATHER AND EXCESSIVE RAINFALL
TUESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT. UNCERTAINTY REMAINS
WITH WHAT LATITUDE A WEST TO EAST ORIENTED BAND OF HEAVY RAIN
WILL FALL TUESDAY NIGHT.
- HEAT AND HUMIDITY START BUILDING AGAIN OVER THE WEEKEND, WITH
POTENTIAL FOR A HEAT WAVE INCREASING FOR SUNDAY INTO THE FIRST
HALF OF NEXT WEEK.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 207 PM CDT MON JUL 6 2026
REGIONAL VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY HIGHLIGHTS A BUBBLY CU FIELD
ACROSS THE REGION AND A FRONTAL BOUNDARY UPSTREAM OVER THE DAKOTAS.
TEMPERATURES HAVE WARMED WELL INTO THE 80S WITH SURFACE DEW POINT
TEMPERATURES IN UPPER 60S AND LOWER 70S. THIS HAS MADE A WARM, HUMID
ENVIRONMENT TYPICAL OF SUMMER. MODERATE INSTABILITY HAS BUILT INTO
THE UPPER MIDWEST GIVEN THE PLUME OF MOISTURE IN PLACE WHICH WILL
RESULT IN THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT ACROSS THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY OVER
THE EASTERN DAKOTAS THIS AFTERNOON. THIS FRONT WILL SAG SOUTH OVER
THE NEXT 12 HOURS OR SO BRINGING A DECAYING MCS ACROSS OUR WESTERN
AND CENTRAL MINNESOTA COUNTIES. THE SPC EXTENDED THEIR SLIGHT AND
MARGINAL RISKS FURTHER EAST TO INCLUDE PORTIONS OF CENTRAL MINNESOTA
THAT WERE PREVIOUSLY IN GENERAL THUNDER. THE ENVIRONMENT IN PLACE IS
FAVORABLE FROM A WIND/HAIL THREAT PERSPECTIVE, BUT TIMING WILL
BECOME AN ISSUE AS STORMS PRESS FURTHER SOUTHEAST TOWARD
SOUTHERN/EASTERN MINNESOTA AND W WI. THE LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING
SHOULD LIMIT THE THREAT OF SURFACE-BASED CONVECTION, BUT TWO
SCENARIOS COULD PLAY OUT. 1) A DECAYING MCS MOVES INTO
DOUGLAS/TODD/MORRISON/STEVENS COUNTIES JUST BEFORE SUNSET AND
ISOLATED DAMAGING WIND REPORTS COME IN. 2) A COLD POOL IS ABLE TO
DEVELOP AND A STRONGER MCS IS ABLE TO MOVE INTO THOSE AFOREMENTIONED
C MN COUNTIES WITH A CONTINUED SEVERE WIND THREAT THAT CONTINUES
DEEPER INTO MPX CWA. THE LACK OF LOW LEVEL JET SUPPORT DOESN'T FAVOR
CONTINUED DEVELOPMENT AS THE BOW DIVES TOWARDS S MN AND THE TWIN
CITIES.
TIMING PLACES IT IN ARE AREA BETWEEN 00Z AND 02Z THIS EVENING.
FORECAST SOUNDINGS ACROSS THE AREA SHOW A FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT THAT
LOSES INSTABILITY QUICKLY AFTER THE LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING. WIND
SHEAR PROFILES ARE BETTER TO OUR NORTHWEST AS THEY'RE ABLE TO TAP
INTO ENHANCED WINDS TIED TO THE SHORTWAVE ACROSS SOUTHERN CANADA.
MODELS AGREE THAT THE LINE OF STORMS WILL GRADUALLY WEAKEN AND
LIKELY DISSIPATE BEFORE REACHING THE TWIN CITIES AND POINTS
SOUTH/EAST OVERNIGHT. THESE AREAS DO NOT HAVE A SEVERE RISK TODAY OR
TONIGHT, BUT LATER ON TUESDAY. HEAVY RAIN IS ALSO A CONCERN TIED TO
THE HIGH PW VALUES ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE BOUNDARY. GUIDANCE DOESN'T
SUPPORT TRAINING OR STALLING STORMS SO HIGH END RAIN CHANCES APPEAR
LOW.
TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY OFFER A SIMILAR SET UP. THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY
WILL BE DRAPED ACROSS THE REGION. THERE IS SOME UNCERTAINTY WITH
IT'S PLACEMENT, BUT IT SHOULD BE SOMEWHERE OVER THE MPX FORECAST
AREA... LIKELY THE NORTHERN HALF. STRENGTHENING JET LEVEL WINDS WILL
SUPPORT BROAD ASCENT TUESDAY AFTERNOON WHILE A LLJ DEVELOPS TUESDAY
EVENING. THIS INTERACTION WITH THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL BE KEY TO
HOW WIDESPREAD SEVERE RISK IS AND WHO GETS WHAT. WE'LL HAVE A BETTER
HANDLE OF WHERE AFTER TONIGHT'S MCS, BUT THE CURRENT FAVORITE WOULD
BE ACROSS WEST CENTRAL/SW MN. STRONG WINDS AND LARGE HAIL ARE THE
PRIMARY HAZARDS FOR DAY 2'S SLIGHT RISK. TIMING WILL ONCE AGAIN BE
AN ISSUE AS THE CONVECTION MOVES INTO THE AREA AROUND SUNSET/AFTER
LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING AGAIN. SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE LIKELY TO
MOVE ALONG THE BOUNDARY WITH WITH A SLIGHT ERO, TOO. TRAINING STORMS
CAN LEAD TO LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS OF RAIN AND A FLASH FLOOD RISK.
WEDNESDAY WILL LIKELY HAVE LINGERING CONVECTION THAT'LL TAINT THE
ENVIRONMENT BUT REDEVELOPMENT IS LIKELY ONCE AGAIN. SEVERE THREAT IS
LOW BUT NON ZERO AND A MARGINAL RISK IS IN PLACE. THE REMAINDER OF
THE PERIOD LOOKS PLEASANT AS AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE BUILDS INTO THE
MID-MISSISSIPPI VALLEY REGION FOR THE WEEKEND. MODEL GUIDANCE BRINGS
A 600DM 500MB RIDGE CENTERED OVER S MN THIS WEEKEND. THAT'LL LEAD TO
HOT AND HUMID CONDITIONS AND PUSH THE STORM TRACK NORTHWARD THROUGH
CANADA OR "UP AND OVER" THE RIDGE. THE POSSIBILITY OF EXTREME HEAT
EXISTS, BUT IT'S TOO FAR OUT TO HAVE MUCH CONFIDENCE.
AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY/
ISSUED AT 633 PM CDT MON JUL 6 2026
THUNDERSTORMS ARE DEVELOPING ALONG A FRONT ACROSS NORTHWESTERN
MINNESOTA THIS EVENING. THIS LINE OF STORMS IS EXPECTED TO
CONTINUE TO PUSH SOUTHEASTWARD THIS EVENING, BUT SHOULD
GRADUALLY WEAKEN AS THE FRONT STALLS OUT. THERE'S SOME
UNCERTAINTY ABOUT THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT ACROSS SOUTHWESTERN
MINNESOTA, SO HAVE LEFT KRWF/KMKT OUT OF ANY TSRA MENTION. MAIN
CHANGE FOR THIS FORECAST WAS TO TIGHTEN UP TIMING FOR TSRA AND
TO CONVERT KAXN AND KSTC FROM PROB30S TO TEMPOS. SOME MVFR CIGS
ARE EXPECTED EARLY TOMORROW MORNING FOR CENTRAL MINNESOTA.
WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO BE 10KTS OR LESS THROUGH THE PERIOD. MORE
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE TOMORROW AFTERNOON
(PARTICULARLY FOR KAXN/KSTC), BUT CONFIDENCE IS TOO LOW TO
INCLUDE IN THIS TAF SET.
KMSP...MODELS ARE SUGGESTING THAT THE LINE OF STORMS MENTIONED
ABOVE MAY MAKE IT TO KMSP AFTER ALL. HAVE INTRODUCED TSRA
BETWEEN 06-09Z. THERE MAY BE A CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS LATE
TOMORROW, BUT UNCERTAINTY IS TOO HIGH AT THE MOMENT.
/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/
WED...MVFR/SHRA LIKELY, CHC IFR/-TSRA. WIND SW TO NW 5-10KTS.
THU...VFR. WIND NE 5KTS.
FRI...VFR. WIND SE 5KTS.
MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MN...NONE.
WI...NONE.
DISCUSSION...BPH
AVIATION...DYE
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