506
FXUS63 KMPX 032137
AFDMPX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
437 PM CDT THU SEP 3 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE TONIGHT, MOST LIKELY ACROSS
NORTH-CENTRAL MINNESOTA. DAMAGING WIND GUSTS ARE THE PRIMARY
THREAT.
- HOT & HUMID FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY WITH HEAT INDEX VALUES OF
95-100 POSSIBLE.
- FREQUENT CHANCES FOR SCATTERED SHOWERS & THUNDERSTORMS INTO
NEXT WEEK.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 353 PM CDT THU SEP 3 2026
TONIGHT:
SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUE TO FESTER ACROSS EASTERN
MINNESOTA & WESTERN WISCONSIN THIS AFTERNOON, WITH BRIEF
INSTANCES OF SMALL HAIL OCCURRING IN THE STRONGEST STORMS. THIS
CONTINUED ACTIVITY THROUGH THE DAY HAS BASICALLY MITIGATED OUR
POTENTIAL FOR EXPLOSIVE STORM GROWTH THIS AFTERNOON, DESPITE
VERY STEEP MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES & SURFACE BASED CAPE VALUES IN
EXCESS OF 3000 J/KG.
OUR EYES CONTINUE TO BE ON THE COMPLEX OF THUNDERSTORMS EXITING
EASTERN NORTH DAKOTA INTO NORTHWESTERN MINNESOTA, & ESPECIALLY
WHERE IT TRACKS THROUGH THE EVENING. SO FAR, THE THUNDERSTORM
COMPLEX HAS BEEN MAKING AN ORDERLY PROGRESSION OFF TO THE EAST,
WITH NO SIGNS OF A SOUTHEASTERLY TURN TOWARDS OUR AREA OF
CENTRAL MINNESOTA. RECENT RADAR TRENDS SUGGEST THE LINE OF
STORMS MAY EVEN BE BREAKING UP INTO DISCRETE CLUSTERS OR EVEN
DISCRETE SUPERCELLS. THESE WOULD BE EVEN LESS LIKELY TO MIGRATE
SOUTHEASTWARDS, SO WE WILL CONTINUE TO WAIT & SEE IF ANY
THUNDERSTORM COMPLEXES CAN DEVELOP BACK TO THE WEST ACROSS
EASTERN ND, OR SOMETHING NEW CAN DEVELOP FROM THE REMNANTS OF
THE ONGOING STORMS. IT'S STILL TOO EARLY TO WRITE OF ANY SEVERE
POTENTIAL FOR TONIGHT GIVEN THE ENVIRONMENT IN PLACE &
INSTABILITY GRADIENT EXTENDING SOUTHEASTWARDS INTO NORTH-
CENTRAL MINNESOTA, & NORTHWEST WISCONSIN, ALTHOUGH OUR
CONFIDENCEIS INCREASING THAT IT SHOULD REMAIN NORTH OF AN
ALEXANDRIA-ST. CLOUD-RICE RAKE/BARRON LINE. DAMAGING WIND GUSTS
WOULD BE THE PRIMARY HAZARD WITH THIS THUNDERSTORM COMPLEX,
FOLLOWED BY LARGE HAIL. TIMING LOOKS TO MAINLY BE TONIGHT - 7-9
PM ACROSS WESTERN PORTIONS OF CENTRAL MN, 9-11 PM ACROSS EASTERN
PORTIONS, & 11 PM-1 AM ACROSS NORTHWEST WISCONSIN.
FRIDAY:
FRIDAY WILL BE DRY, WITH A LOW CHANCE OF SOME ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING NEAR THE IOWA-MINNESOTA BORDER TOMORROW
AFTERNOON. SHOULD THESE STORMS DEVELOP, THE STRONGEST STORMS
COULD CONTAIN LARGE HAIL. OTHERWISE, HEAT & HUMIDITY WILL BE
THE MAIN WEATHER CONCERN WITH TEMPERATURES EXPECTED TO WARM INTO
THE LOW 90S ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA. LESS CONFIDENT IS THE DEW
POINT FORECAST, WITH MANY OF THE LATEST 18Z HIGH-RESOLUTIN
MODELS SUGGESTING WE HAVE SOME DRIER AIR MOVE INTO AT LEAST
CENTRAL MINNESOTA 7 WESTERN WISCONSIN TOMORROW AFTERNOON. THIS
COULD CREATE A SHARP GRADIENT WHERE HEAT INDEX VALUES STAY IN
THE LOW 90S ACROSS CENTRAL MN & WESTERN WI, WHILE APPROACHING
100 DEGREES ACROSS FAR-SOUTHERN MINNESOTA. WE ONLY LOOK TO
APPROACH HEAT ADVISORY CRITERIA IN THE TWIN CITIES METRO (WHERE
THRESHOLDS ARE AT 95 DEGREES), BUT HAVE DECIDED TO HOLD OFF ON
ANY ISSUANCE AT THIS TIME GIVEN THE TREND TOWARDS LOWER DEW
POINTS & HEAT INDEX VALUES TOMORROW AFTERNOON.
THIS WEEKEND:
LOW CONFIDENCE ON THE HEAT FORECAST THIS WEEKEND, OWING TO THE
POSSIBILITY FOR COOLER FLOW OFF OF LAKE SUPERIOR SATURDAY &
PRECIPITATION/CLOUD COVER SUNDAY. WE COULD SEE ANOTHER DAY OF
HEAT & HUMIDITY SATURDAY WITH MANY OF THE LEGACY GLOBAL MODELS
SUGGESTING HIGHS AROUND 90 ALONG WITH MUGGY DEW POINTS, HOWEVER
AI MODELS & A FEW OF THE HIGH-RESOLUTION MODELS SUGGEST WE COULD
BE ENTRENCHED IN COOLER NORTHEAST FLOW OFF OF LAKE SUPERIOR
THROUGHOUT THE DAY. THIS WOULD RESULT IN A RATHER COMFORTABLE
DAY WITH HIGHS AROUND 80 AND LESS MUGGY DEWPOINTS, WHILE A
GRADIENT SETS UP SOMEWHERE OVER WESTERN MINNESOTA WHERE WE STILL
SEE HEAT INDEX VALUES APPROACH 100 DEGREES WHERE THE LAKE-
COOLED AIR DOES NOT REACH.
A SHORTWAVE ARRIVES LATE SATURDAY NIGHT, PROVIDING ANOTHER
CHANCE FOR SCATTERED SHOWERS & THUNDERSTORMS OVERNIGHT SATURDAY
NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING. LOW CONFIDENCE EON ANY OF THE
DETAILS, BUT THE BEST CHANCES FOR APPRECIABLE RAINFALL APPEAR
TO BE ACROSS WESTERN MINNESOTA.
NEXT WEEK:
THE UPPER AIR PATTERN REMAINS ACTIVE AS A NUMBER OF DISTURBANCES
RIDE OVER THE RIDGE CENTERED OVER THE REGION. CONFIDENCE IS LOW
ON WHEN & WHERE THE GREATEST PRECIPITATION CHANCES WILL BE, THE
MAIN WINDOW FOR MORE WIDESPREAD RAINFALL LOOKS TO BE LATE MONDAY
THROUGH TUESDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL DEPEND ON THE TIMING OF ANY
PRECIPITATION SYSTEMS, BUT WILL TEND TO BE WELL-ABOVE NORMAL
EARLIER IN THE WEEK WITH SOME COOLING RELIEF (BUT STILL LIKELY
ABOVE- NORMAL) COMING LATER IN THE WEEK. FOR REFERENCE - AVERAGE
TEMPERATURES FOR EARLY SEPTEMBER ARE IN THE MID TO UPPER 70S FOR
HIGHS & UPPER 50S FOR LOWS.
AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SATURDAY/
ISSUED AT 1215 PM CDT THU SEP 3 2026
A RELATIVELY TRICKY PERIOD IS AHEAD OF US WITH A WARM FRONTAL
BOUNDARY DRAPED WEST TO EAST ACROSS THE AREA RESULTING IN
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED -SHRA/-TSRA, WITH ACTIVITY EXPECTED TO
WEAKEN SOMEWHAT OVER THE FIRST FEW HOURS OF THE TAF. A BRIEF
LULL IS THEN EXPECTED BEFORE A CLUSTER/LINE OF STORMS IS
POSSIBLE, FAVORING CENTRAL MN AND THEREFORE HAVING THE BEST
CHANCE OF AFFECTING AXN/STC AFTER 02-03Z. DURING PERIODS OF
-TSRA, MVFR/IFR IS EXPECTED, WITH MAINLY VFR UNTIL THEN AND
BETWEEN ROUNDS, WITH VISIBILITY THE PRIMARY CATEGORY IMPACT AS
CLOUD HEIGHTS ARE GENERALLY 4KFT OR HIGHER. WINDS FAVOR 130-160
AT 10KTS OR LOWER SOUTH OF THE WARM FRONT WITH GUSTS CONFINED
MAINLY TO AREAS OF TS.
KMSP...ELECTED TO CONTINUE THE TEMPO DUE TO ONGOING -TSRA
NEARBY, AFTER DECIDING BETWEEN TEMPO AND VCTS. THIS ACTIVITY
SHOULD ONLY LAST FOR AN HOUR OR TWO BEFORE DIMINISHING INTO THE
AFTERNOON. A PROB30 GROUP FOR ANOTHER ROUND OF -TSRA IS FAR LESS
CERTAIN, AND EVEN A PROB30 MAY BE TOO AGGRESSIVE AT THIS POINT
WITH MOST OF THE GUIDANCE FAVORING AN AREA FROM ROUGHLY MOORHEAD
TO BRAINERD TO NORTHERN WI FOR THE SECOND ROUND OF STORMS THIS
EVENING/TONIGHT. WE MAY END UP REMOVING IT WITH THE 21Z AMD OR
00Z TAF DEPENDING ON HOW THINGS TREND, WITH MOST OF THE GUIDANCE
SO FAR TODAY KEEPING THINGS PRETTY FAR TO THE NORTH OF MSP.
/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/
SAT...VFR, CHC -TSRA/MVFR LATE. WIND SE 5KTS.
SUN...CHC -TSRA, GENERALLY MVFR. WIND SE 5-10KTS.
MON...SCT -TSRA, GENERALLY MVFR. WIND SE 5-10KTS.
MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MN...NONE.
WI...NONE.
DISCUSSION...ETA
AVIATION...TDH
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