037
FXUS63 KMPX 281822
AFDMPX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
122 PM CDT SUN JUN 28 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- SUNDAY MORNING, A LINE OF THUNDERSTORMS WILL MOVE WEST TO EAST
ACROSS MINNESOTA. THE LINE OF STORMS MAY PRODUCE LARGE HAIL
AND STRONG TO SEVERE WINDS AS IT PROGRESSES EAST.
- LONG DURATION PERIOD OF HEAT AND HUMIDITY BEGINS SUNDAY,
PERSISTING THROUGH THE WEEK. THE EXTREME HEAT WATCH HAS BEEN
UPGRADED TO EXTREME HEAT WARNING FOR MONDAY. HEAT IMPACTS TO
BE FELT ALL WEEK WITH LITTLE OVERNIGHT RELIEF AND THEREFORE A
BUILDING HEAT STRESS.
- CHANCES FOR THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH NEXT WEEK. STORMS WILL BE
CAPABLE OF SEVERE WEATHER & TORRENTIAL RAIN, IF THEY ARE ABLE
TO FORM.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 202 AM CDT SUN JUN 28 2026
OVERALL, NOT A LOT OF CHANGES IN THE FORECAST FROM PREVIOUS FORECAST
PACKAGES. A LONG DURATION PERIOD OF HOT AND HUMID CONDITIONS
BEGINS TODAY, LASTING INTO THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND. THE EXTREME
HEAT WATCH HAS BEEN UPGRADED TO EXTREME HEAT WARNING FOR MONDAY.
CHANCES OF THUNDERSTORMS WILL ALSO EXIST THROUGH THE PERIOD. AS
OF NOW, CONFIDENCE IN EXACT TIMING AND SOME OF THE FINER
DETAILS REMAINS LOW, BUT ANYWHERE STORMS DEVELOP, THEY COULD
BECOME STRONG TO SEVERE.
TODAY
CURRENT SATELLITE/RADAR IMAGERY AS OF 1:00AM SHOWS A LINE OF SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS EXTENDING NORTH TO SOUTH ACROSS THE DAKOTAS. THIS
LINE OF STORMS IS RIGHT ALONG THE HWY-281 CORRIDOR IN ND/SD, MOVING
EASTWARD. HREF AND REFS GUIDANCE, ALONG WITH THEIR ASSOCIATED
HIGH RESOLUTION MODELS SHOWS THIS LINE OF STORMS PROGRESSING
EASTWARD THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE OVERNIGHT AND SUNDAY
MORNING HOURS. SAID GUIDANCE, ALONG WITH RADAR TIME OF ARRIVAL
TOOL HAS THIS LINE OF STORMS MOVING INTO WESTERN MN BY 3-4 AM.
GIVEN THE CONVECTIVE PARAMETERS AT HAND AND CURRENT TRENDS
ASSOCIATED WITH THIS LINE, THE POTENTIAL FOR STRONG TO SEVERE
WIND GUSTS AND SOME LARGE HAIL ARE AT PLAY AS THIS LINE MOVES
INTO WESTERN MN AND PROGRESSES EASTWARD ACROSS THE STATE THIS
MORNING. THE QUESTION REMAINS, HOW STRONG TO SEVERE WILL THIS
LINE OF STORMS BE AS IT MOVES EASTWARD ACROSS MN? GIVEN THE
ELEVATED NATURE OF THIS PROGRESSING LINE OF STORMS, LARGE HAIL
WILL BE A THREAT, ALONG WITH DAMAGING WINDS IF STORMS ARE ABLE
TO DEVELOP AN ASSOCIATED COLD POOL. THE STORM PREDICTION CENTER
CONTINUED WITH SLIGHT AND MARGINAL RISK FOR SEVERE WEATHER
ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS.
DURING THE DAY, A WARM FRONT WILL LIFT NORTHWARD ACROSS REGION WITH
HOT AND HUMID AIR BUILDING IN ACROSS THE AREA IN IT'S WAKE.
SUBSTANTIAL WARMING AT 700MB, DEPICTED BY FORECAST MODEL SOUNDINGS
WILL PROMOTE CAPPING AT THAT LAYER. THIS CAP WILL INHIBIT ANY
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY DURING THE AFTERNOON/EVENING HOURS, WITH THE
THUNDERSTORM RISK SHIFTING NORTH ACROSS NORTHER HALF OF MN AND WI.
MONDAY AND TUESDAY
ON MONDAY, THE BIG CONCERN AND IMPACTFUL WEATHER HAZARD WILL BE THE
WELL ADVERTISED HEAT. THE PREVIOUSLY ISSUED EXTREME HEAT WATCH HAS
BEEN UPGRADED TO AN EXTREME HEAT WARNING FOR MONDAY. CONDITIONS
MONDAY MORNING WILL START OFF HOT AND HUMID, WITH THE EXTREME HEAT
WARNING IN EFFECT AT 9AM. AMPLE SUNSHINE THROUGH THE DAY WILL
INCREASE TEMPERATURES IN THE AFTERNOON HOURS WITH HIGHS TOPPING OUT
IN THE MIDDLE 90S. THIS COUPLED WITH DEW POINT TEMPERATURES IN THE
70S WILL LEAD TO HEAT INDICES AT OR ABOVE 105 DEGREES. THIS LEVEL OF
HEAT AND HUMIDITY WILL BE DANGEROUS TO ANYONE WITHOUT RELIABLE AC,
THOSE WORKING AND DOING STRENUOUS ACTIVITIES OUTSIDE, YOUNG
CHILDREN, OLDER ADULTS, AND PEOPLE WITH CHRONIC HEALTH CONDITIONS.
WITH AMPLE HEAT, HUMIDITY, AND INSTABILITY IN PLACE ON MONDAY, THE
THREAT FOR EVENING THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE. AGAIN, LIKE ON
SUNDAY, ANY CONVECTION WILL BE BATTLING THE CAP THAT IS FORECASTED
TO BE IN PLACE ON AGAIN. THAT SAID, SOME OF THE HIGH RESOLUTION
MODELS SHOW ANOTHER LINE OF THUNDERSTORMS, OR MCS LIKE COMPLEX OF
STORMS DEVELOPING OVER WESTERN MN DURING THE EVENING HOURS
BEFORE PROGRESSING EASTWARD. THAT SAID, THE SPC HAS ISSUED A
DAY 2 SLIGHT RISK FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS MOST OF MN ON
MONDAY, DUE TO THE POTENTIAL FOR ROBUST CONVECTION WITHIN A HOT,
MOIST, AND UNSTABLE ENVIRONMENT.
THIS ALSO BRINGS US BACK TO WHY THE EXTREME HEAT WARNING WASN'T
EXTENDED INTO TUESDAY, THE THREAT FOR MONDAY EVENING AND OVERNIGHT
THUNDERSTORMS. THIS AND THE ASSOCIATED CLOUD DEBRIS COULD INHIBIT
SUFFICIENT WARNING DURING THE DAY ON TUESDAY. THAT SAID, THE
DECISION FOR HEAT HEADLINES ON TUESDAY WILL NOT BE MADE DURING THIS
SHIFT DUE TO THE LOW CONFIDENCE AND POTENTIAL INHIBITING FACTORS AT
HAND. THIS WILL ALLOW FUTURE SHIFTS/FORECASTS PACKAGES TO
ASSESS FRESH DATA IN THE 24-48 HOURS. HOWEVER, CONDITIONS ARE
STILL GOING TO BE HOT AND HUMID AND AS OF NOW WE WILL CONTINUE
TO MESSAGE THE THREAT FOR DANGEROUS HEAT ON TUESDAY AS WELL EVEN
IF NOT HEADLINES AREA ISSUED.
REMAINDER OF THE WORK WEEK
THE HOT AND HUMID CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE WORK WEEK
WITH DAILY HIGH TEMPS AROUND 90 DEGREES. WHAT MAKES THIS LONG
DURATION PERIOD OF HEAT SO IMPACTFUL, IS THE LACK OF RECOVERY IN
OVERNIGHT TEMPERATURES. OVERNIGHT TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE WEEK WILL
BE IN THE UPPER 60S AND LOW 70S ACROSS THE AREA. THIS WILL FURTHER
BUILD THE HEAT STRESS THAT COULD POTENTIALLY LAST INTO THE HOLIDAY
WEEKEND.
THE THREAT FOR DAILY AFTERNOON AND EVENING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE WEEK. ANYWHERE CONVECTION OCCURS, IT WILL
BE RATHER ROBUST WITH THE CONTINUED HOT AND HUMID CONDITIONS IN
PLACE. HOWEVER, GIVEN THAT EACH DAY WILL LIKELY FEATURE SOME SORT OF
CAPPING, CONFIDENCE IS LOW WITH REGARD TO TIMING AND LOCATION.
CONTINUED MONITORING OUR WEB PAGE AND SOCIAL MEDIAS FOR UPDATED
INFORMATION IN THE WEEK TO COME.
AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z TUESDAY/
ISSUED AT 121 PM CDT SUN JUN 28 2026
THIS FORECAST PERIOD HAS PROVEN TO BE TRICKY ESPECIALLY
FORECASTING CIGS. THIS MORNING'S WAKE LOW HAS LEFT ENOUGH TRAILING
SUBSIDENCE WHICH HAS FORCED CLEARING ACROSS SOUTHWESTERN MN. HI-RES
GUIDANCE HAS HANDLED THIS SUBSIDENCE POORLY. IT IS EXPECTED THAT
ISENTROPIC UPGLIDE SHOULD REGAIN DOMINANCE AND FORCE SCATTERED
TO BROKEN LOW VFR CU TO DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON. THERE ALSO IS
ANOTHER SHOT THAT OUR NORTHERN SITES (AXN, STC, AND RNH) SEE A
FEW SCATTERED SHOWERS/THUNDER REDEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON.
FORECAST SOUNDINGS DO PREFER THAT THE ENVIRONMENT IS CAPPED
ALOFT HOWEVER INCLUDED PROB30 MENTIONS AT THESE SITES SHOULD ANY
CU MANAGE TO PRODUCE ANY PRECIP.
AS FOR WINDS, THE HIGHEST WIND GUSTS HAVE MOVED EAST ACCOMPANIED
WITH THE WAKE LOW. CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN BREEZY OUT OF THE SE
THIS AFTERNOON BETWEEN 20-30KTS THEN GRADUALLY BE ON THE
DECREASE THIS EVENING. WINDS THEN WILL SHIFT SOUTHERLY LATE
TONIGHT INTO EARLY TOMORROW MORNING AND INCREASE ONCE AGAIN WITH
GUSTS BETWEEN 20- 30KTS.
KMSP...SCATTERED LOW VFR CU THIS AFTERNOON WITH BREEZY SE'LY GUSTS
BETWEEN 25-30KTS. WINDS WEAKEN THIS EVENING WITH CIGS REDEVELOPING.
AT THIS TIME, LOW CONFIDENCE EXISTS IF MSP MANAGES TO REACH MVFR
CIGS THIS EVENING VS. LOW VFR AND SCATTERED. DECIDED TO KEEP THE TAF
IN LOW VFR AT THIS TIME BUT LOWERED SKY COVER COULD BE INTRODUCED IN
FUTURE AMENDMENTS BASED ON TRENDS. KEPT PRECIP MENTIONS OUT OF MSP
FOR NOW AS HIGHER CONFIDENCE FOR ANY REDEVELOPMENT OF PRECIP WAS
NORTH OF THE FIELD. WINDS SHIFT SOUTHERLY TONIGHT AND INCREASE BACK
TO 25-30KTS LATE MORNING/EARLY AFTERNOON.
/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/
MON...VFR. CHC PM TSRA. WIND S 15-20G30 KTS.
TUE...VFR. WIND SW 10-15G25 KTS.
MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MN...HEAT ADVISORY FROM 9 AM MONDAY TO MIDNIGHT CDT MONDAY NIGHT
FOR CHIPPEWA-DOUGLAS-LAC QUI PARLE-POPE-STEVENS-SWIFT-
TODD-YELLOW MEDICINE.
EXTREME HEAT WARNING FROM 9 AM MONDAY TO MIDNIGHT CDT MONDAY
NIGHT FOR ANOKA-BENTON-BLUE EARTH-BROWN-CARVER-CHISAGO-
DAKOTA-FARIBAULT-FREEBORN-GOODHUE-HENNEPIN-ISANTI-KANABEC-
KANDIYOHI-LE SUEUR-MARTIN-MCLEOD-MEEKER-MILLE LACS-
MORRISON-NICOLLET-RAMSEY-REDWOOD-RENVILLE-RICE-SCOTT-
SHERBURNE-SIBLEY-STEARNS-STEELE-WASECA-WASHINGTON-
WATONWAN-WRIGHT.
WI...HEAT ADVISORY FROM 9 AM MONDAY TO MIDNIGHT CDT MONDAY NIGHT
FOR RUSK.
EXTREME HEAT WARNING FROM 9 AM MONDAY TO MIDNIGHT CDT MONDAY
NIGHT FOR BARRON-CHIPPEWA-DUNN-EAU CLAIRE-PEPIN-PIERCE-
POLK-ST. CROIX.
DISCUSSION...LPR
AVIATION...DUNLEAVY
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