487
FXUS63 KMPX 301059
AFDMPX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
559 AM CDT SUN AUG 30 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- HOT AND HUMID TODAY AND TOMORROW WITH HEAT INDEX VALUES UP
AROUND 90.
- ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES WITH HIGHS IN THE 80S TO CONTINUE
FOR THE FIRST WEEK OF SEPTEMBER.
- ISOLATED SHOWERS/STORMS TODAY WITH THE NEXT CHANCE COMING LATE
TUESDAY INTO EARLY WEDNESDAY.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 219 AM CDT SUN AUG 30 2026
TODAY AND TONIGHT... TODAY'S WEATHER WILL BE DRIVEN BY WARM AIR
ADVECTION. FIRST AND MOST OBVIOUS WARM AND MOIST AIR IS MOVING
IN BRINING US HIGHER TEMPERATURES AND DEW POINTS. THIS WILL
BRING HEAT INDEX VALUES INTO THE 90S WITH THE HIGHER VALUES
SOUTH (SOUTHERN MN/WEST CENTRAL WI) AND LOWER NORTH (CENTRAL
MN/NORTHWEST WI). THIS WARM AIR ADVECTION WILL ALSO OCCUR ALONG
A WARM FRONT AND THE LIFT FROM THIS FRONT WILL PROVIDE SOME
CHANCES FOR STORM DEVELOPMENT. THE CHALLENGE FOR CI WILL BE
OVERCOMING THE CAP WE HAVE IN PLACE THIS MORNING. SO FAR THIS
CAP HAS HELD AND NO DEVELOPMENT HAS BEEN NOTED. FOR ANYTHING
THAT DOES OCCUR THIS MORNING CI WILL NEED TO OCCUR OVER THE
DAKOTAS AND SURVIVE INTO MINNESOTA. WE DO HAVE STRONG ELEVATED
INSTABILITY, SO ELEVATED STORMS COULD MAINTAIN THEMSELVES IF
THEY HAVE A DEEP ENOUGH UPDRAFT. THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING
DAYTIME HEATING SHOULD HELP TO BREAK THIS CAP, BUT THE FRONT
WILL LIFT NORTH SUCH THAT CHANCES WILL BE MAINLY IN CENTRAL AND
NORTHERN MINNESOTA. THE MAIN SEVERE CHANCE WILL BE TIED MORE TO
THE COLD FRONT MOVING ACROSS THE DAKOTAS. SO SEVERE WILL BE TIED
TO STORMS THAT INITIATE TO THE WEST AND TRACK INTO MINNESOTA
OVERNIGHT. HOW LINEAR THIS STORMS GO WILL PLAY A BIG PART IN
DETERMINING THE RISK TYPE. MORE LINEAR BEING MORE WIND AND MORE
DISCRETE FAVORING HAIL. SPC HAS ALSO NOTED A LOW TORNADO CHANCE
TIED TO THE AREA ALONG THE WARM FRONT.
MONDAY AND TUESDAY... THE COLD FRONT WILL PASS THROUGH MINNESOTA ON
MONDAY PROVIDING SOME RELIEF FROM THE MOISTURE. THIS WILL KEEP
THE HIGHER DEW POINTS AND THEREFORE THE HEAT INDEX VALUES ABOVE
90 IN WESTERN WISCONSIN. WITH CLEARER SKIES TEMPERATURES WON'T
BE MUCH COOLER, IF AT ALL, IN MINNESOTA BUT THE LOWER DEW POINTS
WILL BE NOTICEABLE. THESE LOWER DEW POINTS SHOULD SPREAD INTO
WISCONSIN ON TUESDAY EXPANDING THE RELIEF.
TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY... ANOTHER SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVING
ACROSS THE PLAINS WILL PROVIDE OUR NEXT CHANCE FOR RAIN TUESDAY
NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY. THANKFULLY THIS LOOKS MORE LIKE WHAT WE
SAW ON SATURDAY MORNING WITH A MORE WIDESPREAD LIGHT RAIN RATHER
THAN THE MORE ISOLATED NATURE OF WHAT IS FORECAST FOR TODAY.
LOOKING AT FORECAST SOUNDINGS THE GREATEST CHALLENGE WILL BE
LOW LEVEL DRY AIR. THIS MEANS IT WILL TAKE A WHILE BEFORE RAIN
STARTS TO REACH THE SURFACE. THIS WILL ALSO BE A LIMITING FACTOR
IN STRONG STORMS, AS IT WILL GREATLY LIMIT INSTABILITY. LOOKING
TOWARDS ENSEMBLE SYSTEMS THERE IS ACTUALLY GOOD AGREEMENT FOR
THIS FAR OUT, WHICH IS WHY WE ARE ALREADY SEEING HIGHER POPS IN
THE NBM. JUST MORE OF A TIMING DISPLACEMENT RIGHT NOW WITH THE
GEFS/GEPS EARLIER THAN THE ENS.
REST OF THE WEEK... ENSEMBLES GET MUCH MORE DISPERSIVE AFTER
WEDNESDAY, BUT CONTINUE TO SHOW ACTIVITY. THIS REMAINS THE SAME
LONG TERM FORECAST WE HAVE HAD FOR MUCH OF THE PAST WEEK WITH A
MORE ACTIVE AND WARM PATTERN. THIS KEEP HIGHS IN THE 80S WITH A
LOW CONFIDENCE OF WHICH DAYS WILL SEE RAIN UNTIL AT LEAST THE
MID RANGE FORECAST (ABOUT 3 DAYS OUT).
AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY/
ISSUED AT 559 AM CDT SUN AUG 30 2026
IFR CEILINGS HAVE SPREAD ACROSS PARTS OF CENTRAL MINNESOTA THIS
MORNING. THESE CLOUD DECKS WILL LIFT THIS MORNING AS WE BEGIN
TO WARM AND THOSE LEVELS BECOME LESS SATURATED. SOME MVFR FOG
HAS ALSO BEEN OBSERVED AND WILL LIFT AT SIMILAR TIMES FOR THE
SAME REASON. OVERALL WINDS REMAIN LIGHT TODAY FROM A
SOUTHEASTERLY DIRECTION. RAIN CHANCES HAVE GENERALLY BEEN
DRYING UP THIS MORNING AND ARE NOT EXPECTED TO BE AN AVIATION
IMPACT. SOME RAIN CHANCE TONIGHT FOR EAU, BUT NOT HIGH ENOUGH
YET FOR TAF INCLUSION.
KMSP...NO ADDITIONAL CONCERNS.
/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/
MON PM...VFR. WIND NW 5 KTS.
TUE...MAINLY VFR. CHC PM -TSRA/MVFR. WIND VARIABLE 5 KTS.
WED...VFR. WIND N 5 KTS.
MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MN...NONE.
WI...NONE.
DISCUSSION...NDC
AVIATION...NDC
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