180
FXUS63 KMPX 211914
AFDMPX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
214 PM CDT MON SEP 21 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- LIGHT RAIN CHANCES CONTINUE THROUGH THIS EVENING WITH THE NEXT
CHANCE FOR RAIN ARRIVING LATE WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY.
- BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES CONTINUE THIS WEEK, WITH SOME FROST
CHANCE IN NW WI TONIGHT, BEFORE A RETURN TO NORMAL
TEMPERATURES EXPECTED NEXT WEEKEND.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 214 PM CDT MON SEP 21 2026
REST OF TODAY INTO TONIGHT... BROAD SYNOPTIC LIFT ASSOCIATED
WITH AN UPPER LOW WILL CONTINUE TO PROVIDE FOR CLOUDS AND LIGHT
RAIN THROUGH THIS EVENING. THE COOL TEMPERATURES AND RAIN COULD
ALLOW FOR SOME FOG/MIST TO PERSIST IN AREAS WHERE IT RAINS, AFTER
THE RAIN COMES TO AN END. AS THIS MOVES OUT, SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE OVER THE GREAT LAKES WILL START TO TAKE OVER AND WE
WILL CLEAR OUT. HOW MUCH WE CLEAR OUT WILL HAVE A BIG IMPACT ON
TEMPERATURES. WITH CLOUDY SKIES DURING THE DAY WE HAVE NOT BEEN
WARMING MUCH AT ALL. WHERE WE CAN CLEAR OUT TONIGHT WILL BE
ABLE TO COOL MORE DUE TO RADIATIONAL COOLING. THE BEST CHANCES
FOR CLEARING WILL BE ACROSS WISCONSIN AND PARTS OF MAINLY
EASTERN MINNESOTA TONIGHT. DEPENDING ON HOW QUICKLY THIS
CLEARING CAN OCCUR WILL IMPACT HOW COLD IT GETS. IF CLEARING
OCCURS QUICKLY TEMPERATURES COULD FALL INTO THE UPPER 30S AND
SOME FROST COULD FORM. BEST CHANCE FOR THIS WILL BE FROM MILLE
LACS IN MINNESOTA OVER TO RUSK IN WISCONSIN, WITH THE MAIN COLD
SPOT BEING IN NE MN AND NW WI COVERED BY NWS DLH.
TUESDAY TO FRIDAY... WITH THE UPPER LOW MOVING OUT AND HIGH
PRESSURE REMAINING NEARBY WE SHOULD SEE MUCH MORE SUN ON
TUESDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL STILL BE BELOW NORMAL IN THE LOWER
60S AS THE AIRMASS DOESN'T CHANGE MUCH. WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY
IS WHEN WE WILL SEE A CHANGE IN PATTERN AND A SHIFT IN THE
WEATHER. SOUTHERLY WINDS AT 850 MB WILL BRING SOME WAA. A 500
MB SHORTWAVE IS EXPECTED ACROSS THE DAKOTAS AND A JET STREAK
ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAIN/UPPER MIDWEST WILL PROVIDE SOME LIFT.
ALL OF THIS TOGETHER WILL PROVIDE SUPPORT FOR OUT NEXT RAIN
CHANCE. BEST CHANCE FOR RAIN WILL BE OFF TO OUR WEST ACROSS THE
DAKOTA AND INTO WESTERN MINNESOTA. CHANCE FOR RAIN WILL FALL OFF
TO THE EAST ACROSS MINNESOTA. THE WARMER AIR ADVECTING IN
SHOULD ALLOW FOR SOME INCREASE IN TEMPERATURE THOUGH IN TO THE
MID 60S. BY MID DAY THURSDAY ENSEMBLE CHANCES DROP QUICKLY
ACROSS THE BOARD. TEMPERATURES SIMILAR TO MAYBE SLIGHTLY COOLER
ON THURSDAY THANKS TO EXPECTED CLOUD COVER. FRIDAY WILL SEE A
SMALL CHANCE FOR SOME ADDITIONAL RAIN ACROSS WESTERN AND
SOUTHERN MINNESOTA ASSOCIATED WITH A SMALL 500 MB DISTURBANCE.
OVERALL VERY SCATTERED ENSEMBLE SIGNAL AND LOW CONFIDENCE IN
THIS RAIN OCCURRING.
NEXT WEEKEND... TEMPERATURES GO INTO A WARMING TREND THIS
WEEKEND WITH SUNDAY BEING OUR NEXT CHANCE FOR TEMPERATURES ABOVE
NORMAL. SUNDAY IS FORECAST TO SEE TEMPERATURES IN THE UPPER 60S
WITH SOME CHANCES FOR THE LOW 70S. NORMALS TODAY HAVE HIGHS IN
THE LOWER 70S AND BY SUNDAY THEY FALL INTO THE UPPER 60S.
SATURDAY WILL ALSO SEE ANOTHER 500 MB DISTURBANCE ACROSS THE
DAKOTAS, SO ANOTHER CHANCE FOR RAIN WITH THE BETTER CHANCES IN
WESTERN MINNESOTA SIMILAR TO WEDNESDAY/THURSDAY. ALTHOUGH THIS
ONE DOES NOT FALL OFF AS FAST AS THE CHANCE EARLIER IN THE WEEK,
SO CHANCES TO THE EAST ARE NOT AS LOW.
AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z WEDNESDAY/
ISSUED AT 1223 PM CDT MON SEP 21 2026
NO MAJOR CHANGES TO THE ONGOING TAF DEALING MAINLY WITH
MVFR/-SHRA ACROSS THE WESTERN/SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE AREA WITH
LOW VFR FOR THE NORTH/EAST. RADAR ECHOES CONTINUE TO CHURN
LEFTOVER FROM THE MORNING, HOWEVER DRY MID LEVEL AIR SHOULD KEEP
IT FROM REACHING THE GROUND EXCEPT FOR AXN/RWF/MKT. MVFR SHOULD
RETURN TO VFR FOR ALL SITES BY THE LATE AFTERNOON AS CIGS
CONTINUE TO LIFT AND EVENTUALLY SCATTER OUT TOWARDS 12Z, WITH
FEW250 TO SKC TO END THE PERIOD. WINDS WILL HAVE LIMITED GUSTING
INITIALLY AT 070-100 SHIFTING SLIGHTLY TO 120-150.
KMSP...KEPT THE PERSISTENCE LOW VFR/HIGH MVFR TAF GOING, HOWEVER
WE MIGHT CHANGE BETWEEN CATEGORIES FOR THE FIRST 2-3 HOURS OF
THE TAF BEFORE BECOMING MAINLY VFR FOR THE REMAINDER. THE
SHOWERS APPEARING ON RADAR ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN MOSTLY AS
VIRGA WITH ONLY TRACE AMOUNTS REACHING THE SURFACE.
/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/
WED...VFR. WIND SE 5-10KTS
THU...VFR, CHC -SHRA/MVFR EARLY. WIND SE 5-10KTS
FRI...VFR. WIND SE 5-10KTS
MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MN...NONE.
WI...NONE.
DISCUSSION...NDC
AVIATION...TDH
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