525
FXUS63 KMPX 232344
AFDMPX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
644 PM CDT WED SEP 23 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- TYPICAL FALL TEMPERATURES CONTINUE, WITH SLIGHT RISES AND
FALLS THROUGH THE NEXT 7 DAYS.
- RAIN CHANCES TONIGHT INTO THURSDAY, FRIDAY NIGHT INTO
SATURDAY, AND MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY. NO SEVERE WEATHER OR
EXCESSIVE RAINFALL THREAT.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 139 PM CDT WED SEP 23 2026
IT IS A BEAUTIFUL FALL DAY AND THERE ARE NO MAJOR CHANGES TO THE
7-DAY FORECAST. A BLOCKING HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN IN PLACE
OVER THE GREAT LAKES / EASTERN CANADA REGION THROUGH EARLY NEXT
WEEK, KEEPING THE GREATEST RAIN CHANCES WEST AND SOUTH
GENERALLY.
THERE ARE THREE MAIN WINDOWS TO WATCH FOR RAIN THIS PERIOD, WITH
THE FIRST TWO COMING TONIGHT INTO THURSDAY, AND THEN FRIDAY
INTO SATURDAY. IN BOTH CASES, A WEAK SHORTWAVE WILL HELP ENHANCE
THE NOCTURNAL LLJ, PROVIDING ENOUGH FORCING FOR A BROAD AREA OF
SHOWERS TO DEVELOP. THERE WILL BE LIMITED INSTABILITY WITH
DEWPOINTS STUCK IN THE 50S, SO WIDESPREAD STORMS AND HEAVIER
RAINFALL IS NOT EXPECTED. AS THE RAIN SPREADS FROM WEST TO EAST
THURSDAY, AND SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST IN THE CASE OF SATURDAY,
DRIER AIR AND BROAD SUBSIDENCE ASSOCIATED WITH THE HIGH PRESSURE
WILL LIMIT HOW FAR EAST THE RAIN IS ABLE TO TRAVEL.
THE PATTERN WILL START TO SHOW SIGNS OF BREAKING DOWN EARLY NEXT
WEEK AS A MORE PRONOUNCED SHORTWAVE NUDGES THE UPPER RIDGE
EASTWARD. TIED TO THE SHORTWAVE, A MORE ROBUST LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM WOULD DEVELOP AT THE SURFACE, RESULTING IN A BRIEF WARM-
UP MONDAY BEFORE WINDS SHIFT OUT OF THE NORTHWEST AND ADVECT IN
COOLER AND DRIER AIR FOR THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK.
AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY/
ISSUED AT 644 PM CDT WED SEP 23 2026
CLOUDS WILL INCREASE AND SHOWERS WILL DEVELOP ACROSS WESTERN MN
OVERNIGHT. THE SHOWERS WILL STRUGGLE TO ADVANCE EAST TO I-35 BY
THURSDAY AFTERNOON BEFORE DIMINISHING. CIGS WILL LOWER IN THE
AFTERNOON TO IFR/MVFR AND DEEP LOW LEVEL MOISTURE MAY ALLOW FOR
AREAS OF DRIZZLE INTO THURSDAY EVENING.
KMSP...CHANCE OF SHOWERS ARRIVES IN THE AFTERNOON, BUT BEST
CHANCES WILL REMAIN WEST. MAY SEE MVFR CIGS BY THURSDAY EVENING
AND PERHAPS SOME PATCHY DRIZZLE.
/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/
FRI...VFR. WIND SE 5-10 KTS.
SAT...CHC MVFR. -SHRA LIKELY. WIND SE 10-20 KTS.
SUN...VFR. WIND S 5-10 KTS.
MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MN...NONE.
WI...NONE.
DISCUSSION...BED
AVIATION...BORGHOFF
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