174
FXUS63 KMPX 040805
AFDMPX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
305 AM CDT SAT APR 4 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION CONTINUES EARLY THIS MORNING WITH
SNOW ACROSS WESTERN AND CENTRAL MINNESOTA, FREEZING RAIN
ACROSS NORTHWEST WISCONSIN, AND LIGHT RAIN TO THE SOUTH.
- RAIN LIFTS NORTH THROUGH THE MORNING, RESULTING IN A SHORT
LULL IN PRECIP BEFORE LIGHT SNOW SPREADS FROM WEST TO EAST
DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
- THE COOL AIR WILL PERSIST THROUGH TUESDAY FOLLOWED BY WARMER
TEMPERATURES AND MORE RAIN CHANCES FOR THE LATTER HALF OF NEXT
WEEK.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 252 AM CDT SAT APR 4 2026
TODAY...IT'S A DREARY START TO THE DAY WITH A SMORGASBORD OF
PRECIPITATION TYPES ACROSS THE REGION, AND FOG AND CLOUDS
EVERYWHERE IN BETWEEN. WINDS HAVE TURNED OUT OF THE NORTH AS
THE SURFACE LOW TRACKS EAST INTO SOUTHERN WISCONSIN, PROMOTING A
BROAD AREA OF WEAK COLD AIR ADVECTION. AS TEMPERATURES COOL
DOWN, SNOW AND FREEZING RAIN HAVE BECOME MORE COMMON. THE
FORECAST IS STILL ON TRACK FOR THE HEAVIEST SNOW ACCUMULATIONS
TO FALL ACROSS WEST-CENTRAL INTO NORTHERN MINNESOTA, AND FOR
THE GREATEST ICING TO OCCUR ACROSS A LINE FROM ISANTI/KANABEC
COUNTIES EAST INTO NORTHERN WISCONSIN. AROUND 3 TO 4 HOURS OF
FREEZING RAIN OR UNKNOWN PRECIPITATION HAS BEEN REPORTED BY
SEVERAL OF THE AWOSS IN THAT REGION ALREADY TONIGHT. THE TOTAL
EXTENT OF ICE ACCUMULATION OR IMPACTS IS UNKNOWN TO US AT THIS
TIME GIVEN MOST PEOPLE ARE ASLEEP RIGHT NOW AND CAMERA COVERAGE
IS LIMITED OUT THERE. THAT SAID, SEND IN SOME REPORTS IF YOU
HAVE ANY!
THE MAJORITY OF THE RAIN WILL LIFT NORTH THROUGHOUT THE MORNING,
AND MANY LOCATIONS WILL STAY DRY UNTIL WRAP-AROUND SNOW SHOWERS
SPREAD EAST WITH THE OCCLUDED LOW DURING THE AFTERNOON AND
EVENING. ANY ACCUMULATION FROM THIS LAST PUSH OF SNOW WILL BE
LIGHT (UNDER AN INCH), THOUGH IT COULD LEAD TO BRIEF REDUCTIONS
IN VISIBILITY, ESPECIALLY AS WINDS BECOME GUSTY OUT OF THE
NORTHWEST. LIGHT SNOW AND CLOUD COVER WILL CLEAR OUT FROM WEST
TO EAST BY THIS EVENING.
SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...A COUPLE OF WEAK WAVES WILL RIDE DOWN
THE BROADER UPPER LEVEL TROUGH, RESULTING IN A SERIES OF COLD
FRONTS TO START NEXT WEEK. THIS MEANS THE BREEZY NORTHWESTERLY
WINDS PREVAIL AND TEMPERATURES REMAIN COOL SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH
TUESDAY NIGHT. THERE WILL BE LOW CHANCES (30% OR LESS) FOR LIGHT
RAIN AND SNOW WITH THESE COLD FRONTS, PRIMARILY THE INITIAL ONE
ON SUNDAY. A BROAD REGION OF SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES IN
BEHIND, ALLOWING CLOUDS TO CLEAR AND WINDS TO CALM TUESDAY
MORNING. LOWS ARE FORECAST TO BE IN THE TEENS AND SINGLE DIGITS
TO THE NORTH.
WEDNESDAY AND BEYOND...LONG RANGE DETERMINISTIC AND ENSEMBLE
GUIDANCE CONTINUE TO SUGGEST A TURN TO A MORE ACTIVE PATTERN FOR
THE SECOND HALF OF THE WEEK. A DEEPENING UPPER LOW COULD TRACK
FROM SOUTHEASTERN ALASKA AND ALONG THE US/CANADA BORDER. THE
STRENGTH OF THIS TROUGH WILL PLAY A ROLE IN THE SURFACE LOW
EVOLUTION. RIGHT NOW, IT PLACES US SAFELY IN THE WARM SECTOR,
MEANING RAIN AND THUNDERSTORMS WOULD BE ON THE TABLE ALONG WITH
HIGHS IN THE 60S AND DEWPOINTS IN THE UPPER 40S. A SECONDARY LOW
MAY FOLLOW BEHIND, BUT THE EVOLUTION OF THE FIRST ONE WILL
CERTAINLY HAVE AN IMPACT ON HOW ACTIVE THE REST OF THE WEEK
STAYS.
AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY/
ISSUED AT 1238 AM CDT SAT APR 4 2026
OUR SPRING SYSTEM CONTINUES WITH A WIDE RANGE OF IMPACTS ACROSS
THE TERMINALS. SNOW CONTINUES AT AXN (WEST MN) WHILE RAIN
CONTINUES AT EAU (WEST WI) WITH ALL KINDS OF MIX BETWEEN THESE
TERMINALS ACROSS MN AND WI. MUCH OF THIS PRECIPITATION HAS BEEN
MORE SHOWERY IN NATURE SO THERE WILL BE BREAKS IN THE
PRECIPITATION. CEILINGS HAVE EVEN VARIED BETWEEN VFR AND IFR AT
ISSUANCE TIME. GENERALLY HAVE BEEN SEEING A DECREASING TREND IN
UPSTREAM OBSERVATIONS, SO EXPECTING A MORE CONSTANT IFR AS WE
HEAD INTO THE MORNING. SHOULD SEE A RETURN TO MVFR BY THIS
EVENING AND CLEARING BACK INTO VFR SATURDAY NIGHT. WINDS WILL BE
SHIFTING TO THE NORTHWEST THIS MORNING AND COULD GET A LITTLE
GUSTY LATER TODAY WITH THE GUSTS IN THE 20 TO 30 KNOT RANGE.
KMSP...CEILINGS HAVE BEEN VARIABLE BETWEEN IFR AND MVFR OVER THE
EARLY OVERNIGHT, BUT SHOULD TREND TO MORE CONSTANT IFR AS THE
NIGHT CONTINUES. LIGHT RAIN IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE AND
TEMPERATURES SHOULD REMAIN JUST WARM ENOUGH TO PREVENT IT FROM
BECOMING FREEZING RAIN. THE RAIN SHOULD COME TO AN END IN THE
MORNING WITH A WRAP AROUND PERIOD OF SOME SNOW POSSIBLE IN THE
AFTERNOON. NOT YET CONFIDENT ON IF SNOW GETS FAR ENOUGH SOUTH TO
IMPACT MSP, SO OPTED TO KEEP THE PROB30 FOR NOW. WINDS EXPECTED
TO SHIFT FROM THE NORTH TO MORE OF A NORTHWEST DIRECTION THIS
MORNING AND HOLD THERE THROUGH THE PERIOD.
/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/
SUN...VFR BCMG MVFR WIND NW 10-15 KTS.
MON...VFR. WIND NW 10-20KTS.
TUE...VFR. WIND S 10-15 KTS.
MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MN...WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 10 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR DOUGLAS-
MORRISON-TODD.
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 10 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR
BENTON-CHISAGO-ISANTI-KANABEC-MCLEOD-MEEKER-MILLE LACS-
SHERBURNE-STEARNS-WRIGHT.
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR POPE-
STEVENS.
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM CDT THIS MORNING FOR
CHIPPEWA-KANDIYOHI-LAC QUI PARLE-REDWOOD-RENVILLE-SWIFT-
YELLOW MEDICINE.
WI...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 10 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR
BARRON-POLK-RUSK.
DISCUSSION...BED
AVIATION...NDC
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