847
FXUS63 KMPX 010744
AFDMPX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
244 AM CDT THU OCT 1 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- FOLLOWING TODAY'S WARM TEMPERATURES, A COLD FRONT WILL BRING
MORE SEASONABLE HIGHS FOR THE FIRST DAY OF OCTOBER THROUGH
THIS WEEKEND.
- OTHER THAN SOME ISOLATED SHOWERS SATURDAY, MUCH OF THE
FORECAST PERIOD LOOKS DRY.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 238 AM CDT THU OCT 1 2026
TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY
CURRENT SATELLITE IMAGERY AS OF 2:00AM SHOWS LARGE AREA OF CLOUDS
ASSOCIATED WITH AN UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS. THE
ASSOCIATED MID TO UPPER LEVEL FORCING REMAINS WELL TO OUR SOUTH,
MOVING WEST TO EAST ACROSS NE AND IA, WHERE SHOWERS AND STORMS
ARE ONGOING. THE NORTHERN EXTENT OF THIS SHOWER/STORM ACTIVITY
WILL MOVE WEST TO EAST ACROSS IA THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS. FAR
SOUTHERN MN, AREAS LIKE FAIRMONT TO ALBERT LEA COULD SEE LIGHT
TO MODERATE RAIN SHOWERS THROUGH THE MORNING. MEANWHILE, CURRENT
SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWS A FRONTAL BOUNDARY EXTENDING SW TO NE
ACROSS EASTERN SD AND INTO NORTHERN MN. AHEAD OF THIS BOUNDARY,
AREAS OF DENSE FOG DEVELOPED ACROSS WESTERN WI WHERE A DENSE FOG
ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT THROUGH 7:00AM. THIS BOUNDARY WILL
CONTINUE PUSHING SE THROUGH THE DAY. A MORE SEASONABLE AND
DRIER AIRMASS WILL SETTLE IN ACROSS THE FORECAST IN IT'S WAKE.
CURRENT NBM GUIDANCE PAINTS THE AREA WITH DEW POINT TEMPS
DROPPING INTO THE MID TO UPPER 30S THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
THIS COUPLED WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE LOW TO MIDDLE 60S
WILL MAKE IT FEEL LIKE FALL. WITH SKIES SLOWLY BECOMING CLEAR
DURING THE EVENING AND OVERNIGHT TIMEFRAME, TEMPERATURES WILL
RESPOND WITH FRIDAY MORNING LOWS DROPPING INTO THE UPPER 30S TO
LOW 40S ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA (LOW TO MIDDLE 40S ACROSS THE
METRO). SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE LOCKED IN OVER THE REGION
ON FRIDAY, FALL-LIKE CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE. HIGH
TEMPERATURES WILL BE 3-7 DEGREES BELOW THE SEASONAL AVERAGE FOR
THE BEGINNING OF OCTOBER, TOPPING OUT IN THE LOW 60S.
BY SATURDAY, THE NEXT SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL MOVE WEST TO EAST ACROSS
SOUTHERN CANADA. A TONGUE OF MID TO UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE WILL EXTEND
SOUTH ALONG AN ASSOCIATED SURFACE BOUNDARY THAT WILL MOVE WEST TO
EAST ACROSS THE REGION. A LOW-END CHANCE (10-30%) OF SHOWERS WILL BE
POSSIBLE SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. NONETHELESS, EXPECT
SCATTERED TO BROKEN CLOUDS ON SATURDAY WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES BACK
TO AROUND OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE THE SEASONAL AVERAGE (MID TO UPPER 60S).
ON SUNDAY, EXPECT ANOTHER NOTICEABLE DROP IN DEW POINT TEMPERATURES,
DROPPING BACK INTO THE UPPER 30S WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE LOW
TO MIDDLE 60S.
NEXT WEEK
ON MONDAY, EXPECT ANOTHER COOL, FALL-LIKE MORNING AS YOU HEAD OUT
THE DOOR. MORNING LOW TEMPERATURES WILL DROP INTO THE MID TO UPPER
30S (LOW 40S FOR METRO AND WESTERN MN). QUIET AND FAIR WEATHER
CONDITIONS WILL BE THE THEME THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST
PERIOD. STRONG UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL DOMINATE THE UPPER FLOW
PATTERN OVER WESTERN CONUS. THIS WILL PROMOTE PREDOMINATELY ZONAL
FLOW ACROSS THE REGION. TEMPERATURES STARTING ON TUESDAY WILL BECOME
SLIGHTLY ABOVE THE SEASONAL AVERAGE WITH GENERALLY DRY CONDITIONS
EXPECTED.
AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z FRIDAY/
ISSUED AT 1222 AM CDT THU OCT 1 2026
THE MAIN IMPACTS FOR THE 06Z PERIOD WILL BE RELATED TO FOG AND
MIST PRIMARILY FOR STC/MSP/RNH/EAU. THERE WILL BE INTERMITTENT
IMPACTS UP TO LIFR, WITH PREVAILING CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO VARY
BETWEEN IFR/MVFR. AFTER 12Z FOG SHOULD BE BEGIN TO CLEAR, AT
WHICH POINT WE SHOULD RETURN TO VFR BY 14-15Z FOR ALL LOCATIONS
AND REMAIN VFR FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD. WINDS WILL
INCREASE TO 10-12G20KTS FROM 300-350AFTER 12Z, WITH GUSTS
DROPPING OFF AFTER 00Z.
KMSP...WHILE WE HAVE YET TO DROP BELOW 6SM, PERIODS OF BR ARE
EXPECTED TO BRING US TO MVFR AT TIMES THROUGH 12Z, AFTER WHICH
POINTS WE SHOULD BE VFR FOR THE REST OF THE PERIOD. THE DENSER
FOG WILL REMAIN NORTH/EAST OF THE TERMINAL.
/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/
FRI...VFR. WIND NW 5KTS.
SAT...VFR. WIND S 10-15KTS.
SUN...VFR WIND NW 5-10KTS.
MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MN...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM CDT THIS MORNING FOR CHISAGO.
WI...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM CDT THIS MORNING FOR BARRON-
CHIPPEWA-DUNN-EAU CLAIRE-PEPIN-PIERCE-POLK-RUSK-ST. CROIX.
DISCUSSION...LPR
AVIATION...TDH
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