108
FXUS63 KMPX 191121
AFDMPX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
621 AM CDT SUN JUL 19 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- MORE SMOKE POSSIBLE ACROSS FAR EASTERN MINNESOTA AND WISCONSIN
INTO TOMORROW, SEE AIR QUALITY ALERT FOR MORE INFORMATION.
- NEXT CHANCE FOR STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS LATE TONIGHT AND
MONDAY AFTERNOON.
- TURNING COOLER WITH NEAR OR SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES
TUESDAY WITH THE HOT TEMPERATURES RETURNING BY NEXT WEEKEND.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 241 AM CDT SUN JUL 19 2026
A SHORTWAVE WILL TRACK FROM ALBERTA DOWN INTO THE NORTHERN GREAT
LAKES TO START THIS WEEK. THIS WILL BRING ADDITIONAL HEAT IN
TODAY AND TOMORROW WITH COOLER AIR MOVING IN STARTING ON
TUESDAY. THIS OVERALL PATTERN WILL ALSO ALLOW FOR SMOKE TO
SPREAD ACROSS MUCH OF WISCONSIN AND COULD POSSIBLY MOVE INTO
SOME OF EASTERN MINNESOTA AS WELL. RECENT HRRR SMOKE RUNS
CONTINUE TO FAVOR WISCONSIN FOR THE MOST LIKELY IMPACTS. CONSULT
AIR QUALITY ALERTS FROM THE WI DNR AND MPCA FOR MORE DETAILS. THE
SURFACE LOW ASSOCIATED WITH THE SHORTWAVE WILL STAY NORTH OF
THE INTERNATIONAL BORDER, BUT THE FRONTS WILL EXTEND INTO THE
UPPER MIDWEST AND NORTHERN PLAINS. WITH A FAVORABLE CONVECTIVE
ENVIRONMENT AHEAD OF THE FRONTS STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO INITIATE
IN THE DAKOTAS TODAY AND ACROSS THE MIDWEST TOMORROW. OF
IMPORTANCE FOR US WILL BE THE ABILITY OF THE STORMS FROM THE
DAKOTAS TO MAINTAIN THEMSELVES WITH THE ASSISTANCE OF THE LLJ AS
THEY HEAD INTO MINNESOTA TONIGHT. THE MOST LIKELY SCENARIO FOR
STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS FOR THIS ROUND WOULD BE UPSCALE GROWTH
INTO AN MCS. DUE TO THIS STORM MODE, THE MAIN RISK WOULD BE
DAMAGING WINDS. THEN ON MONDAY WHAT WILL BE THE POSITION OF THE
FRONTS AS CI STARTS TO OCCUR? DEPENDING ON HOW THE MORNING PLAYS
OUT RECOVERY COULD STALL CI LONG ENOUGH FOR THE FRONT TO BE
PAST US. LOOKING INTO CAM GUIDANCE THERE REMAINS A SPREAD ON
WHERE CI OCCURS WITH THE HIGHEST CHANCES GENERALLY OUT IN
WESTERN WISCONSIN WHERE SPC HAS AN ENHANCED RISK (LEVEL 3/5).
AMPLE CAPE AND FAVORABLE SHEAR WOULD SUPPORT SUPERCELLS WITH ALL
MODES OF SEVERE WEATHER IN PLAY (TORNADO, LARGE HAIL, AND
DAMAGING WINDS). IF THE MORNING STORMS FAIL TO COME TO TOGETHER
THE ENVIRONMENT COULD BE FAVORABLE EARLIER IN THE DAY AND THAT
COULD ALLOW CI TO OCCUR SOONER AND FARTHER WEST INTO PARTS OF
EASTERN MINNESOTA WHERE SPC HAS A SLIGHT RISK (LEVEL 2/5). WARM
AIR ADVECTION AHEAD THE FRONTAL PASSAGE WILL ALSO SEE HEAT INDEX
VALUES INTO THE 90S, POSSIBLY APPROACHING 100 IN SOUTHERN
MINNESOTA.
BEHIND THE FRONTAL PASSAGE TEMPERATURES WILL BE MUCH COOLER ON
TUESDAY WITH HIGHS SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL IN THE UPPER 70S TO
LOWER 80S. ZONAL FLOW ALSO KEEPS THE OVERALL SYNOPTIC PATTERN
LOOKING QUIET. THIS WILL BE A NICE BREAK FOR EVERYONE AFTER A
STRETCH OF SEEING FREQUENT HEAT AND/OR STORMS. LOOKING TOWARDS
THE GLOBAL ENSEMBLES THERE REMAINS A LOT OF SPREAD ON WHEN THE
NEXT ROUND OF RAIN OR STORMS WILL OCCUR. SOME CLUSTERING AROUND
FRIDAY, BUT IT IS STILL WIDELY SCATTERED WITH LITTLE CLUSTERING.
SO THE LOW POPS FROM NBM CONTINUE TO SEEM REASONABLE FOR THIS
PERIOD. WHAT DOES HAVE MORE CONFIDENCE WITHIN THE ENSEMBLE
SYSTEMS IS A WARMING TREND TOWARDS THE END OF THE WEEK. WE COULD
VERY WELL SEE A RETURN TO 90S BY THE NEXT WEEKEND WITH ABOUT
TWO THIRDS OF THE GLOBAL ENSEMBLE MEMBERS HAVING A HIGH OF 90 OR
GREATER NEXT WEEKEND.
AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY/
ISSUED AT 621 AM CDT SUN JUL 19 2026
SMOKE WILL CAUSE LOW VFR/HIGH MVFR VISIBILITY THIS MORNING FOR
MSP, RNH, AND EAU. SMOKE WILL LINGER THE LONGEST AT EAU. COOLER
TEMPERATURES IN WESTERN WISCONSIN THIS MORNING HAS PROVIDED FOR
SOME FOG COVERAGE WHICH HAS IMPACTED EAU. THIS SHOULD IMPROVE
AS WE WARM THIS MORNING AND ALLOW IT TO RETURN TO A SMOKE BASED
VISIBILITY REDUCTION. TONIGHT STORMS WILL BE FIRING ACROSS THE
DAKOTAS AND WILL LIKELY MOVE INTO MINNESOTA. DUE TO CONFIDENCE
ON TIMING AND UNCERTAINTY ON TRACK ACROSS MINNESOTA WILL KEEP AT
PROB30 FOR NOW AND ALLOW FOR FUTURE TAFS TO HONE IN ON TIMING
AND LOCATION AS WE GET INTO THE CRITICAL FIRST 6 HOURS PERIOD.
KMSP...SMOKE WILL CAUSE SOME VISIBILITY REDUCTIONS THIS MORNING
TO LOW VFR/HIGH MVFR AROUND 5-6 SM. STILL LOOKING AT A CHANCE
FOR STORMS TO MOVE THROUGH TONIGHT, THANKFULLY CURRENT TIMING
SHOULD HAVE STORMS PASS DURING A LIGHT TRAFFIC TIME.
/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/
MON PM...VFR, CHC -TSRA/MVFR. WIND S TO W 10-15G25 KTS.
TUE...VFR. WIND NW 10-15G25 KTS.
WED...VFR. WIND N/NW 5 KTS.
MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MN...NONE.
WI...NONE.
DISCUSSION...NDC
AVIATION...NDC
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