342
FXUS63 KMPX 212249
AFDMPX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
549 PM CDT WED OCT 21 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES CONTINUE THROUGH SATURDAY FOLLOWED
BY NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURES FOR SUNDAY ONWARD.
- RAIN CHANCES RETURN SATURDAY AND REMAIN IN THE FORECAST
THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 216 PM CDT WED OCT 21 2026
OTHER THAN A GRADUAL WARM-UP THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK,
LITTLE DAY-TO-DAY CHANGE IN THE WEATHER IS EXPECTED FROM NOW
THROUGH FRIDAY. THIS IS DUE TO THE CENTER OF AN AREA OF HIGH
PRESSURE SLIDING EAST ACROSS THE INTERNATIONAL BORDER THE REST
OF TODAY THROUGH MIDDAY THURSDAY, KEEPING CLEAR SKIES IN PLACE
ALONG WITH LIGHT WINDS OVERNIGHT (WHICH MAY PROMOTE PATCHY TO
AREAS OF FOG EARLY THURSDAY MORNING) FOLLOWED BY WINDS SWAPPING
TO A SE DIRECTION WHICH WILL PROMOTE SLOW WARM AIR ADVECTION
ACROSS THE REGION. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR HIGH TEMPERATURES TODAY,
THURSDAY AND FRIDAY RUNNING SOME 15-20 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL,
INCLUDING THE POTENTIAL FOR HIGHS HITTING 80 DEGREES OVER
SOUTHWEST MN THURSDAY AND FRIDAY.
THE PATTERN CHANGE STARTS LATE FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY AS A WELL-
ORGANIZED AREA OF LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPS OVER THE NORTHERN
ROCKIES THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY, THEN RAPIDLY SHIFTS NNE INTO
CENTRAL CANADA OVER THE WEEKEND. A COLD FRONT SAGGING SOUTH FROM
THIS SYSTEM WILL SWEEP ACROSS THE UPPER MIDWEST SATURDAY THROUGH
SUNDAY. THE SYSTEM WILL LOSE A LOT OF ITS PACIFIC-ORIGIN
MOISTURE AS IT MOVES ACROSS THE ROCKIES AND INTO CANADA, BUT
ENOUGH FRONTAL LIFT COMBINED WITH ITS REMAINING MOISTURE MAY BE
ENOUGH TO SQUEEZE OUT SOME SCATTERED RAIN SHOWERS SATURDAY
AFTERNOON INTO LATE SUNDAY. ALTHOUGH THE FRONT WILL BE WELL SE
OF THE WFO MPX COVERAGE AREA COME SUNDAY INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK, A
FEW WEAK UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVES MAY BE ABLE TO INTERACT WITH
THE STALLED FRONT TO PRODUCE A FEW SHOWERS FROM TIME TO TIME
ACROSS OUR AREA FOR THE FIRST HAVE OF THE NEXT WORK WEEK.
THE MORE NOTICEABLE CHANGE WILL BE WITH RESPECT TO TEMPERATURES
BEHIND THE COLD FRONT. WE MAY HAVE HIT THE POINT OF THE LAST 70+
DEGREE HIGH TEMPERATURES AS STRONG COLD AIR ADVECTION WILL KNOCK
BACK HIGH TEMPERATURES INTO MORE SEASONABLE LEVELS OF THE LOW-
MID 50S. SIMILARLY, LOWS WILL DROP INTO THE MID 30S TO MID 40S
FOR AT LEAST THE START OF NEXT WEEK. WHILE CPC OUTLOOKS STILL
HIGHLIGHT ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE REST OF THIS
MONTH, NORMALS FALL TO THE UPPER 40S TO LOWER 50S BY THE END OF
THIS MONTH. THUS, WITH THOSE LOWER NORMALS AND CONTINUING
LOWERING SUN ANGLE, "ABOVE" NORMAL HIGHS WILL LIKELY REMAIN
ONLY IN THE 60S AND HAVE A VERY HARD TIME RETURNING TO THE 70S.
AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY/
ISSUED AT 540 PM CDT WED OCT 21 2026
CLEAR SKIES AND NEARLY CALM WINDS TONIGHT WILL MEAN THAT AREAS
OF FOG ARE EXPECTED EARLY THURSDAY MORNING. CAMS FAVOR THE
HEAVIEST FOG OCCURRING WITHIN THE MINNESOTA RIVER VALLEY (RWF
AND MKT) AND PORTIONS OF WEST-CENTRAL WI (EAU). HOWEVER, DENSE
FOG WILL LIKELY BE VERY LOCALIZED SO HAVE KEPT TEMPO FOR LIFR
ONLY AT EAU THURSDAY MORNING. FOG WILL BURN OFF AFTER SUNRISE,
GIVING AWAY TO HIGH CLOUDS. WINDS WILL BECOME SOUTHEASTERLY AT
5-10 KNOTS BY THURSDAY AFTERNOON.
KMSP...FORECAST MODELS ARE SHOWING SOME HINTS OF FOG NEAR MSP
THURSDAY MORNING, BUT CONFIDENCE IS CURRENTLY NOT HIGH ENOUGH
TO INCLUDE IN THE TAF AT THIS TIME.
/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/
FRI...VFR. WIND SE 10-15G25KTS.
SAT...VFR, CHC -SHRA/MVFR. WIND SSW 10-15G25KTS.
SUN...VFR, CHC -SHRA/MVFR LATE. WIND N 5KTS.
MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MN...NONE.
WI...NONE.
DISCUSSION...JPC
AVIATION...CTG
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