827
FXUS63 KMPX 081126
AFDMPX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
626 AM CDT THU MAY 8 2025
KEY MESSAGES
- ELEVATED TO CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS LIKELY SUNDAY
THROUGH TUESDAY.
- A SUMMER PREVIEW SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY, WITH RECORD HIGHS
POSSIBLE SUNDAY.
- RAIN CHANCES FINALLY RETURN WEDNESDAY EVENING.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 347 AM CDT THU MAY 8 2025
ONCE AGAIN, WE FIND OURSELVES WITH CLEAR SKIES BENEATH A MID-LEVEL
RIDGE. HOWEVER, OUR SURFACE WINDS ARE COMING FROM A HIGH CENTERED
NEAR JAMES BAY, WHICH IS SUPPLYING US WITH A COOLER AIRMASS. WE'VE
BEEN SEEING TEMPERATURES IN THE 30S SLOWLY BUILDING SOUTHWEST TOWARD
OUR EASTERN CWA OVERNIGHT AND THIS COOLER AIR MOVING IN WILL KEEP
TEMPERATURES IN CHECK AGAIN, WITH HIGHS TODAY VERY SIMILAR TO WHAT
WE SAW ON WEDNESDAY. GIVEN THE SOURCE REGION OF OUR LOW LEVEL AIR
FROM NEAR HUDSON BAY, THIS WILL BE A VERY DRY AIRMASS. WE AGAIN
UNDERCUT NBM DEWPOINTS DURING THE AFTERNOON, GETTING THEM DOWN
CLOSER TO THE TENTH PERCENTILE. THIS RESULTS IN AFTERNOON RHS DOWN
IN THE 15% TO 25% RANGE FOR EASTERN MN AND WESTERN WI TODAY.
FORTUNATELY, WINDS WILL BE UNDER 10 MPH, SO THAT WILL LIMIT THE FIRE
WEATHER THREAT FOR TODAY.
FRIDAY, WE'LL SEE A COLD FRONT DROP DOWN OUT OF CANADA. WE'LL SEE
ANOTHER THERMAL RIDGE MOVE IN AHEAD OF THE FRONT, WHICH WILL SEND
HIGHS ON FRIDAY BACK INTO THE LOW TO MID 80S. ONCE AGAIN, THE
PRESSURE GRADIENT IN THE WARM SECTOR OF THIS FRONT WILL BE QUITE
BAGGY, WHICH MEANS OUR RUN OF WARM TEMPERATURES AND LIGHT WINDS WILL
CONTINUE. THESE WARM TEMPERATURES WILL AGAIN SEND AFTERNOON RHS
TANKING INTO THE 20S, BUT THE LIGHT WINDS WILL AGAIN LIMIT THE FIRE
DANGER THREAT. WITH THE BOUNDARY, WE WILL SEE A SLIGHT UPTICK IN
MOISTURE, AS EVIDENCED BY PWATS INCREASING TO ABOUT 0.8 INCHES (NEAR
NORMAL). AS A RESULT, WE DO SEE THE CAMS TRYING TO SQUEEZE OUT SOME
SHOWERS ALONG THE BOUNDARY DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON/EVENING.
LOOKING AT FORECAST SOUNDINGS, THESE WOULD LIKELY HAVE CLOUD BASES
NEAR 10K FEET, SO IT'S QUITE POSSIBLE THEY WOULDN'T BE MUCH MORE
THAN VIRGA. ALTHOUGH THE CHANCE FOR RAIN LOOKS TO BE AT ABOUT 10%,
WE DID BOOST POPS ALONG THE FRONT TO 15% TO GET AN ISOLATED STORM
MENTION INTO THE FORECAST (A 10% POP WOULD BE A "SILENT" POP).
FOR SATURDAY, WE'LL GET BACK INTO A HUDSON HIGH FEED, WHICH WILL
KNOCK HIGHS BACK A FEW DEGREES FROM FRIDAY, BUT AGAIN KEEP US IN A
DRY AIRMASS FEED, MEANING YET ANOTHER DAY OF AFTERNOON RHS IN THE
20S, BUT WITH SUSTAINED WINDS OF 10 MPH OR LESS, SO AGAIN DRY
WITHOUT THE WIND. THIS TREND OF LOW HUMIDITY AND LIGHT WINDS COMES
TO AN END SUNDAY...
SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY WILL OFFER CONSECUTIVE OF HOT, DRY, AND
WINDY CONDITIONS. IN OTHER WORDS, A SIGNIFICANT FIRE WEATHER THREAT.
THE MAIN QUESTION WHEN IT COMES TO THE FIRE DANGER WILL COME DOWN TO
THE FUELS GIVEN THAT WE'RE NOW PAST THE SPRING GREEN-UP. SUNDAY
THROUGH TUESDAY, WE'LL SEE FAIRLY PERSISTENT LOW PRESSURE CENTERED
OVER THE DAKOTAS, WITH A STRONG PRESSURE GRADIENT SETTING UP OVER
MN. THIS WILL ALLOW AN IMPRESSIVE THERMAL RIDGE TO BUILD NORTH
ACROSS THE PLAINS. A LOW COMING OUT OF THE GULF TOWARD THE GREAT
LAKES WILL KEEP THIS THERMAL RIDGE CENTERED OUT OVER THE DAKOTAS
INTO NORTH CENTRAL MN AND NORTHWEST ONTARIO. WITH THIS SETUP, HIGHS
IN THE LOW TO MID 90S SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY WILL BE POSSIBLE IN
WESTERN MN, WITH HIGHS STAYING MORE IN THE LOW TO MID 80S FOR
SOUTHEAST MN INTO WESTERN WI THANKS TO THE COOLER TEMPS ALOFT
ASSOCIATED WITH THE UPPER LOW GOING THROUGH THE OHIO VALLEY. SUNDAY
FEATURES THE LOWEST RECORD HIGH OF THE MONTH AT MSP (88), WITH THE
RECORD AT STC (90) BEING WITHIN REACH AS WELL. FOR THE REST OF THE
WEEK, THE RECORDS JUMP UP TO THE 92-98 RANGE. BESIDES WARM
TEMPERATURES, WE'LL SEE PERSISTENT LOW LEVEL JETTING TO GO WITH THE
STRONG PRESSURE GRADIENT, WHICH WILL RESULT IN MUCH BREEZIER
CONDITIONS THAN WHAT WE HAVE BEEN EXPERIENCING RECENTLY. THOUGH OUR
WINDS WILL BE SOUTHERLY, THE GULF WILL HAVE NORTHERLY WINDS UNTIL
TUESDAY, WHICH MEANS WE'RE CUT-OFF FROM LOW LEVEL MOISTURE, WHICH
WILL HELP DRIVE OUR POTENTIALLY SIGNIFICANT FIRE WEATHER THREAT
SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY. DEPENDING ON JUST HOW MUCH WE MIX OUT DURING
THE AFTERNOON, WE COULD EASILY SEE AFTERNOON HUMIDITIES IN THE TEENS
IN WESTERN MN, WITH WINDS GUSTING UP OVER 40 MPH. THIS IS THE TYPE
OF FIRE WEATHER SETUP WE SEE EVERY FEW YEARS FOR ONE DAY, RARELY DO
WE STRING TOGETHER THREE DAYS IN A ROW THAT FEATURE TEMPERATURES,
RH, AND WIND VALUES IN THIS COMBINATION BACK-TO-BACK-TO-BACK. AS
MENTIONED BEFORE THOUGH, THE FIRE DANGER WILL COME DOWN TO HOW
RECEPTIVE TO FIRE OUR QUICKLY GREENING FUELS WILL BE, WHICH IS
SOMETHING WE WILL BE COORDINATING WITH THE DNR ABOUT IN THE COMING
DAYS.
FOR WEDNESDAY, THE CHANGE WE SEE WITH THE WEATHER PATTERN IS THE LOW
TO OUR WEST FINALLY STARTS TO NUDGE EAST SOME, WITH A COLD FRONT
APPROACHING WESTERN MN BY THE AFTERNOON. AFTER BEING SHUT-OFF TO
START THE WEEK, THE WESTERN GULF WILL BE WIDE OPEN COME WEDNESDAY.
THE MAIN QUESTION FOR US GETTING RAIN IS WILL THIS GULF MOISTURE GET
THIS FAR NORTH BEFORE WE GET BEHIND THE FRONT. WE'RE SEEING ENOUGH
ENSEMBLE MEMBERS PRODUCING QPF TO SEE POPS OF 30-40% WEDNESDAY
EVENING. IN ADDITION, THE NSSL MACHINE LEARNING SEVERE PROBABILITIES
SHOW THIS SETUP COULD BE SUPPORTIVE OF SOME SEVERE CONVECTION AS
WELL, SO THAT WILL BE SOMETHING TO GIVE MN FORECASTERS BORED OF
FORECASTING CLEAR SKIES TO LOOK AT.
AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z FRIDAY/
ISSUED AT 625 AM CDT THU MAY 8 2025
IT'S ANOTHER SKY CLEAR AFFAIR THIS TAF PERIOD. WINDS WILL
GRADUALLY TURN FROM THEIR CURRENT E OVER TO THE S DURING THE
COURSE OF THE PERIOD WITH SPEEDS REMAINING UNDER 10 KTS.
KMSP...NO ADDITIONAL CONCERNS.
/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/
FRI...VFR. WIND SW 5-10 KTS.
SAT...VFR. WIND ESE 5-10 KTS.
SUN...VFR. WIND SSW AT 10-20KTS.
MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MN...NONE.
WI...NONE.
DISCUSSION...MPG
AVIATION...MPG
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