234
FXUS63 KMPX 232028
AFDMPX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
228 PM CST SUN FEB 23 2020
SHORT TERM
(THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 210 PM CST SUN FEB 23 2020
DUE TO SOME SNOW MELT TODAY, AND THE COMBINATION OF A STRONG
INVERSION DEVELOPING OVERNIGHT AS WINDS BECOME LIGHT, AREAS OF FOG
MAY FORM. THE BEST LOCATIONS WILL BE IN WESTERN/SOUTHERN
MINNESOTA WHERE LOCAL TERRAIN AND LIGHTER WINDS WILL BE OPTIMIZE.
MONDAY WILL SEE A LOT MORE CLOUD COVER AS TWO SYSTEMS BEGIN TO
OVERSPREAD THE UPPER MIDWEST. THE FIRST SYSTEM IS MOVING OUT OF
THE SOUTHERN ROCKIES THIS AFTERNOON WITH A BROAD AREA OF SHOWERS
DEVELOPING IN THE MID SECTION OF THE NATION TONIGHT/MONDAY. THE
SURFACE LOW IS EXPECTED TO INTENSIFY NEAR THE KANSAS/OKLAHOMA
BORDER AND MOVE EAST-NORTHEAST THROUGH THE MID-MISSISSIPPI RIVER
VALLEY BY MONDAY NIGHT. A SECONDARY STORM SYSTEM WHICH IS
CURRENTLY MOVING INTO THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST, WILL MERGE WITH THE
SYSTEM OVER THE MID-MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY MONDAY NIGHT. THE
PHASING OF THESE TWO SYSTEMS AND THE RELATIVELY SOUTHERN SHIFT IN
THE MAIN UPPER LOW EXPECTED MONDAY NIGHT, ANY PRECIPITATION WILL
BE CONFINED TO THE BUFFALO RIDGE AREA AS NORTHEASTERLY FLOW WILL
ENHANCE ANY CLOUDS/PRECIPITATION DEVELOPMENT THROUGH TUESDAY
MORNING.
LONG TERM
(TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 225 PM CST SUN FEB 23 2020
TUESDAY WILL BE THE BEST CHANCE IN THE NEXT 7 DAYS TO RECEIVE ANY
MEASURABLE PRECIPITATION. HOWEVER, ANY PRECIPITATION WILL BE VERY
LIGHT AND CONFINED TO SOUTHWEST, AND SOUTH CENTRAL MINNESOTA
WHERE UP TO AN INCH OF SNOW IS POSSIBLE. FARTHER TO THE
NORTH/NORTHEAST, A DRY NORTHEASTERLY FLOW IN THE BOUNDARY LAYER,
WITH THE ADDED SOUTHERN SHIFT IN THE STORM SYSTEM, WILL LEAD TO
LITTLE OR NO PRECIPITATION. EVEN IF THERE WAS A SHIFT BACK TO THE
NORTH WITH THE STORM SYSTEM, PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS SHOULDN'T BE
IMPACTFUL. THE 90 PERCENTILE OF THE NBM (SNOWFALL AMOUNTS IN 24
HOURS) STILL SUGGEST ONLY FAR SOUTHERN MINNESOTA GETTING ANY
CHANCE OF A FEW INCHES OF SNOW. CURRENTLY THE OUTLIER IS THE GFS
WHICH HAS THE NORTHERN BIAS OF THE STORM MOVEMENT. THE EC/GEM
SOLUTIONS ARE WELL SOUTH OF OUR REGION. BY TUESDAY NIGHT THIS
SYSTEM SHIFTS TO THE GREAT LAKES WITH NORTHERLY WINDS USHERING IN
MUCH COOLER AIR FOR THE LATTER PART OF THE WORK WEEK.
PAST TUESDAY NIGHT, MODELS SUPPORT A NORTH/NORTHWESTERLY FLOW
ALOFT. THIS IS RELATIVELY A DRY FLOW BUT I CAN'T RULE OUT A FEW
FLURRIES/LIGHT SNOW EVENT IF ANY WEAK SHORT WAVE MOVES SOUTHEAST
ALONG THE AMPLIFIED TROUGH THAT WILL BE CENTERED OVER THE
EASTERN CONUS.
NEXT WEEKEND, AND INTO THE FIRST WEEK OF MARCH, A LARGE RIDGE
MOVES OVERHEAD. THIS WILL LEAD TO MODERATING TEMPERATURES LATE
NEXT WEEKEND, AND POSSIBLY INTO THE FIRST WEEK OF MARCH.
AVIATION
(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1125 AM CST SUN FEB 23 2020
NO WEATHER CONCERNS THROUGH THIS EVENING WITH GUSTY WEST/NORTHWEST
WINDS THIS AFTERNOON, DIMINISHING THIS EVENING, AND BECOMING
NORTHEAST MONDAY MORNING. THERE IS A POSSIBILITY OF IFR VSBY
DEVELOPING, ESPECIALLY OVER SOUTH CENTRAL/SOUTHWEST, AND WEST
CENTRAL MINNESOTA OVERNIGHT. CONFIDENCE IS LOW, BUT ENOUGH TO
INTRODUCE IFR VSBYS FROM KAXN-KRWF-KMKT.
KMSP...
GUSTY WINDS THIS AFTERNOON FROM THE WEST/NORTHWEST, BUT
DIMINISHING THIS EVENING, AND BECOMING NORTHEAST ON MONDAY. ANY
WEATHER CONCERNS WILL BE AFTER 00Z/25.
/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/
MON LATE...MVFR. WIND NE 5-10 KTS.
TUE...MVFR WITH CHC -SN/IFR. WIND NNE 15G25 KTS.
WED...CHC MVFR CIGS. WIND NNW 15G25 KTS.
MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
WI...NONE.
MN...NONE.
SHORT TERM...JLT
LONG TERM...JLT
AVIATION...JLT
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