705
FXUS63 KMPX 091110
AFDMPX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
610 AM CDT SAT MAY 9 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- COOLER THIS WEEKEND WITH FROST/FREEZE CHANCES SUNDAY AND
MONDAY MORNINGS BEFORE WARMING NEXT WEEK.
- AFTER THIS MORNING'S RAIN THE NEXT CHANCE FOR RAIN ARRIVES
LATE MONDAY INTO TUESDAY.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 229 AM CDT SAT MAY 9 2026
RAIN WILL CONTINUE TO SLOWLY ADVANCE ACROSS THE UPPER MIDWEST
THIS MORNING DRIVEN BY BROAD ASCENT ALONG A JET STREAK AND
FRONTAL PASSAGE. THE REGIONS WITH RAINFALL HAVE BEEN SEEING A
NOTABLE INCREASE IN DEW POINTS INTO THE 40S. THIS IS SIGNIFICANT
VERSUS THE VALUES DOWN NEAR 30 IN SOUTHERN MINNESOTA. THIS GAP
IN DEW POINT IS PART OF WHY QPF VALUES DROP OFF QUICKLY TO THE
SOUTH AS THIS DRIER AIR WILL LIMIT RAIN CHANCES. THE OTHER
IMPACT OF THESE DEW POINTS WILL BE FOR FIRE WEATHER THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING. HIGHER DEW POINTS AND RAINFALL WILL HELP
TO REDUCE FIRE WEATHER RISK, KEEPING THE RISK LOWER THAN IT WAS
YESTERDAY. HOWEVER CLEARING SKIES BEHIND THE FRONTAL PASSAGE
WILL ALLOW FOR AMPLE MIXING AGAIN TODAY AND THE SUN WILL ALSO
ALLOW FOR DROPPING DEW POINTS. THIS MEAN ANOTHER GUSTY AND DRY
DAY IS EXPECTED TODAY. THEREFORE YET ANOTHER BAD DAY FOR
BURNING. THE OTHER SIDE OF THE FRONTAL PASSAGE WILL BE A PERIOD
OF COLD AIR ADVECTION. THIS WILL BRING TEMPERATURES DOWN
SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY MORNING. BOTH MORNINGS WILL SEE
FROST AND FREEZE POTENTIAL WITH MOST ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE AND
THEREFORE THE NBM FAVORING MONDAY MORNING FOR THE MORE
WIDESPREAD FREEZE CHANCE. WITH THE MAIN AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE
MOVING OVERHEAD ON SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY MORNING THE CLEAR
SKIES WILL FAVOR RADIATIONAL COOLING. MORNING TEMPERATURES WILL
BE MORE TYPICAL OF EARLY MARCH THAN EARLY MAY.
EARLY IN THE WEEK A SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL MOVE FROM THE CANADIAN
PRAIRIES INTO THE GREAT LAKES. THIS WILL PROVIDE A BROAD SOURCE
OF LIFT FOR OUR NEXT, MORE WIDESPREAD, RAIN CHANCE LATE MONDAY
INTO TUESDAY. THERE IS A HIGH CHANCE FOR RAIN WITH THIS SYSTEM
WITH >98% OF GLOBAL ENSEMBLE MEMBERS HAVING MEASURABLE QPF NORTH
OF I-94 AND EAST OF I-35. TO THE WEST OF THIS REGION STARTS TO
DROP BUT STAYS >75% OF MEMBERSHIP WITH QPF. WHERE THERE REMAINS
SPREAD THOUGH IS IN THE AMOUNT OF QPF, AS PROBS DROP BY ROUGHLY
HALF FOR 0.1" OF QPF. THERE COULD BE SOME INSTABILITY FOR
THUNDERSTORMS, THEREFORE LOCALLY HIGHER QPF, BUT FORECAST
SOUNDINGS DO NOT SHOW MUCH AND IT IS RATHER ELEVATED. AFTER
TUESDAY, THE NEXT CHANCE FOR RAIN ARRIVES THURSDAY ALONG A PUSH
OF WAA. NOT AS STRONG OF SYNOPTIC FORCING AS TUESDAY'S RAIN
CHANCE, SO MUCH LOWER PROBABILITIES IN THE ENSEMBLES. IN
ADDITIONAL TO THE RAIN CHANCES THIS LOOKS TO BE THE START OF A
PERIOD OF CONTINUED HOTTER AIR DAYS WITH MULTIPLE DAYS INTO THE
80S POSSIBLE LATE NEXT WEEK INTO THE FOLLOWING WEEKEND.
AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SUNDAY/
ISSUED AT 606 AM CDT SAT MAY 9 2026
THE LAST OF THE -SHRA WILL BE MOVING SOUTH ACROSS THE AREA,
EXITING MKT/RNH BY 13Z AND EAU BY 14Z WITH DRY CONDITIONS
THROUGH THE REST OF THE PERIOD. LOW VFR CIGS WILL SCATTER OUT A
FEW HOURS AFTER THE SHOWERS EXIT, BECOMING FEW250/SKC BY 18Z BUT
PERHAPS SEEING SOME FEW070 LEVEL FAIR WEATHER CUMULUS FROM
20-00Z. FORECAST SOUNDINGS THEN SHOW A VERY DRY PROFILE WITH
LITTLE CLOUD COVER UNTIL 08-09Z, AT WHICH TIME SOME REDEVELOPING
7-8KFT CLOUDS ARE POSSIBLE. WINDS WILL BEGIN THE PERIOD BELOW
10KTS, INCREASING TO 10-15KTS WITH GUSTS FROM 20-23KTS POSSIBLE
FROM ROUGHLY 17Z THROUGH 01Z BEFORE DIMINISHING BACK BELOW 10KTS
ONCE AGAIN. DIRECTION WILL REMAIN 310-340 THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD.
KMSP...WITH SHOWERS HAVING ALREADY PUSHED SOUTH OF THE TERMINAL
BY PERIOD START, WENT WITH A DRY TAF WITH THE MAIN FEATURES
BEING THE 20-23KT GUSTS AFTER 18Z AS WELL AS SOME FEW070 THROUGH
00Z. THERE IS HIGHER CONFIDENCE IN SCT/BKN070 AFTER 08Z AS
FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW CONSISTENT SATURATION AT THAT LEVEL
ACROSS VARIOUS FORECAST GUIDANCE.
/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/
SUN...VFR. WIND NW 10-20 KTS.
MON...VFR. WIND SE 5-10 KTS.
TUE...VFR, CHC -TSRA/MVFR EARLY. WIND NW 15-20G30 KTS.
MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MN...NONE.
WI...NONE.
DISCUSSION...NDC
AVIATION...TDH
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.
Main Text Page