861
FXUS63 KMPX 201108
AFDMPX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
608 AM CDT SAT JUN 20 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- A FEW SHOWERS POSSIBLE ACROSS SOUTHERN MINNESOTA SUNDAY, THEN
BETTER CHANCE FOR WIDESPREAD RAIN TUESDAY.
- BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES CONTINUE THROUGH NEXT WEEK.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 148 AM CDT SAT JUN 20 2026
SKIES HAVE CLEARED FOLLOWING YESTERDAY'S SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS.
SOME DIURNAL CU WILL DEVELOP LATE MORNING AND SOME WEAK SBCAPE
COULD MATERIALIZE ACROSS NORTHERN WI IN THE AFTERNOON. CAN'T
RULE OUT SOME LOW-TOPPED SHOWERS OR WEAK THUNDERSTORMS NORTHEAST
OF RICE LAKE AND EAU CLAIRE DURING PEAK HEATING, SO MAINTAINED
THE 20 POPS. THE NEXT SYSTEM TO WATCH WILL EMERGE OVER THE
CENTRAL PLAINS TODAY. A WARM FRONT AND RICH MOISTURE WILL BE IN
PLACE ACROSS NE/KS/NORTHERN MO WHICH WILL SPARK HEAVY RAIN
PRODUCING CLUSTERS OF THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH TONIGHT. MUCH OF
THIS ACTIVITY WILL REMAIN WELL TO THE SOUTH, BUT ENOUGH MOISTURE
MAY ADVECT NORTH INTO FAR SOUTHERN MN AND EASTERN SD TO SUPPORT
A FEW SHOWERS SUNDAY.
A SYSTEM TRAVERSING EAST ALONG THE U.S./CANADIAN BORDER MONDAY
WILL BRING SOME INCREASING MOISTURE NORTHWARD BY TUESDAY,
ALTHOUGH IT WON'T BE PARTICULARLY IMPRESSIVE. A COLD FRONT WILL
PASS THROUGH DURING THE AFTERNOON LIKELY BRINGING A ROUND OF
SHOWERS. VERY POOR MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES AND DRIER AIR IN THE
BOUNDARY LAYER WILL LEAD TO LITTLE CAPE AND A MEAGER THUNDER
THREAT. THE LOW WILL SINK SOUTHEAST ALONG THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER
TO SOUTHERN WISCONSIN WEDNESDAY. WRAP AROUND SHOWERS AND PERHAPS
A THUNDERSTORM MAY CONTINUE INTO WEDNESDAY EVENING. TROUGHING
WITH COOL TEMPERATURES ALOFT AND PWATS REMAINING AROUND AN INCH
AND A QUARTER COULD BRING A FEW DIURNAL SHOWERS THROUGH THE REST
OF THE WORK WEEK. THE TROUGH WILL ALSO KEEP SURFACE TEMPERATURES
BELOW AVERAGE.
BY NEXT WEEKEND, THERE ARE SIGNS OF RIDGING TRYING TO BUILD
BACK TO THE UPPER MIDWEST WITH A POTENTIALLY MORE ACTIVE PATTERN
DEVELOPING, ALONG WITH TEMPERATURES RETURNING CLOSER TO NORMAL.
AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY/
ISSUED AT 606 AM CDT SAT JUN 20 2026
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH THE EXCEPTION OF
SOME FOG COMING VERY CLOSE TO KEAU THIS MORNING. HIGH CLOUDS
INCREASE OVERNIGHT WITH WINDS GRADUALLY SHIFTING FROM
WEST/NORTHWEST TO THE EAST BY TOMORROW MORNING.
KMSP...NO ADDITIONAL CONCERNS.
/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/
SUN... VFR. WIND ENE AT 5-10 KTS.
MON... VFR. WIND NE AT 5-10 KTS.
TUE... VFR. CHC OF MVFR/TSRA. WIND SSW AT 5-10 KTS.
MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MN...NONE.
WI...NONE.
DISCUSSION...BORGHOFF
AVIATION...DYE
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