695
FXUS63 KMPX 140515
AFDMPX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
1215 AM CDT SUN JUN 14 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- BREEZY WINDS DIMINISH OVERNIGHT, RETURNING TOMORROW ALONGSIDE
MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES.
- COOLER TEMPERATURES THROUGHOUT THE WEEK WITH HIGHS IN THE
70S, FOLLOWED BY A GRADUAL WARM UP INTO NEXT WEEKEND.
- A FEW RAIN CHANCES THIS WEEK INCLUDING MONDAY AFTERNOON INTO
EARLY TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY. THE BEST OVERALL
CHANCE IS WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 258 PM CDT SAT JUN 13 2026
THE UPPER LEVEL ANVIL RUNOFF FROM THE DECAYED CONVECTION OVER IOWA
HAS FINALLY PUSHED THROUGH MOST OF SOUTHERN MINNESOTA, WITH A FEW
MORE STORMS OVER NORTH-CENTRAL IOWA RESULTING IN A SMALL AREA OF
OVERCAST SKIES ALONG I-90. THERE ARE ALSO SOME CUMULUS STREAKS
THROUGHOUT CENTRAL MINNESOTA THAT HAVE SLOWLY BEEN PUSHING
SOUTHWARDS, WITH THESE CUMULUS EXPECTED TO REACH THE TWIN CITIES
METRO AND FARTHER SOUTH LATER INTO THE EVENING. THERE HAVE BEEN A
FEW RADAR ECHOES IN SOUTHWESTERN AND SOUTHERN MINNESOTA, HOWEVER
GENERALLY THIS HAS RESULTED IN ONLY VIRGA AS THE FORCING REMAINS
WEAK AND THERE IS A LACK OF SIGNIFICANT MOISTURE. IR SATELLITE HAS
FURTHER REINFORCED THIS WITH GENERALLY WARM CLOUD TOPS, WITH A LACK
OF GLACIATION AND THEREFORE LIGHTNING FROM ANY OF THE MORE AMBITIOUS
CELLS SO FAR TODAY. OVERALL, WE ARE NOT EXPECTING ANY LIGHTNING NOR
REALLY ANYTHING BEYOND A PASSING LIGHT SHOWER FOR THE REST OF THE
DAY AS TOMORROW LOOKS TO BE PLEASANT AS HIGH PRESSURE STRENGTHENS
WEST OF THE AREA AND NORTHWESTERLY FLOW CONTINUES ALOFT. WINDS
SHOULD BE ABLE TO MIX FROM ALOFT TOMORROW DURING THE DAYLIGHT HOURS,
RESULTING IN 20-25MPH WIND GUSTS ALONGSIDE SUSTAINED WINDS OF 10-
15MPH GIVEN THE EFFICIENT MIXING. THE AFOREMENTIONED HIGH PRESSURE
TO THE WEST WILL PUSH AWAY FROM THE AREA DURING THE AFTERNOON ON
MONDAY INTO EARLY TUESDAY AS A WEAK COLD FRONT FROM A WEAK SYSTEM
OVER SOUTHEASTERN CANADA MOVES THROUGH, WITH JUST ENOUGH FORCING TO
SQUEEZE OUR SOME ISOLATED SHOWERS AND STORMS MAINLY MONDAY AFTERNOON
AND EVENING BEFORE FALLING BACK OVERNIGHT. NO SEVERE WEATHER IS
CURRENTLY EXPECTED BUT SOME RUMBLES CONTINUING INTO THE OVERNIGHT
HOURS REMAINS POSSIBLE.
WEDNESDAY LOOKS TO BE THE BEST CHANCE FOR MORE WIDESPREAD SHOWERS
AND STORMS THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD AS A SURFACE LOW STRENGTHENS
UNDERNEATH A SHORTWAVE PUSHING THROUGH THE NORTHWEST FLOW RESULTING
IN OUR BEST SYNOPTIC FORCING FOR THE WEEK. BETWEEN THE GLOBAL
ENSEMBLES, THERE IS STILL SOME SPREAD MAINLY AROUND THE ARRIVAL TIME
OF SHOWERS, WITH THE GEFS A BIT FASTER THAN THE EPS WHICH IS FASTER
THAN THE CFS, BUT THERE IS STRONG AGREEMENT IN AT LEAST A FEW TENTHS
OF AN INCH OF PRECIPITATION FOR MOST OF THE AREA AS SHOWERS BECOME
WIDESPREAD INTO MIDDAY WEDNESDAY. THE SHORTWAVE AND SURFACE LOW PUSH
THROUGH AND BEGIN TO EXIT THE AREA OVERNIGHT, WITH SHOWERS AND
STORMS ENDING FOR MOST OF THE AREA BY MIDDAY THURSDAY, ALTHOUGH SOME
LINGERING LIGHTER SHOWERS/STORMS REMAIN POSSIBLE INTO THE EVENING.
AS WE WRAP UP THE WEEK AND HEAD TOWARDS NEXT WEEKEND, UPPER LEVEL
FLOW BEGINS TO TILT MORE TOWARDS THE WEST BUT REMAINS WEST-
NORTHWEST, WITH ANOTHER SHORTWAVE POSSIBLY BRINGING SOME SHOWERS
LATE FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY. THERE IS ALSO A FAIRLY BROAD AREA OF WEAK
WAA AND MOISTURE FLOW INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS ON FRIDAY, WHICH MAY
ENHANCE THE LOCAL ENVIRONMENT ENOUGH TO SQUEEZE OUT A FEW MORE
SHOWERS/STORMS INTO SATURDAY. THERE IS STILL ENOUGH UNCERTAINTY
ESPECIALLY WITHIN THE TIMING, HOWEVER THE FORECAST TREND OVER THE
LAST FEW CYCLES HAS BEEN TO FAVOR INCREASING CHANCES TOWARDS THE END
OF THE WEEK. ALONGSIDE THE SHOWERS/STORMS, WE WILL END UP A BIT
WARMER THANKS TO THE LOW LEVEL WAA AND MOISTURE ADVECTION, WITH NOT
ONLY WARMER TEMPERATURES BUT ALSO HIGHER DEW POINTS MEANING A MORE
HUMID WEEKEND NEXT WEEK THAN AT PRESENT.
AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z MONDAY/
ISSUED AT 1215 AM CDT SUN JUN 14 2026
VFR WITH NORTHWEST WINDS THROUGH THE PERIOD. A STRATUS LAYER IS
MOVING ACROSS THE AREA OVERNIGHT, BUT WILL STAY VFR. SKIES CLEAR
OUT AFTER THE STRATUS MOVES OUT. WINDS WILL BE SIMILAR ON SUNDAY
TO WHAT WE SAW ON SATURDAY WITH GUSTS IN THE 20 TO 30 KNOT
RANGE.
KMSP...NO ADDITIONAL CONCERNS.
/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/
MON...VFR. CHC -SHRA/TS OVERNIGHT. WIND WSW 10-20 KTS.
TUE...VFR. WIND NW 10-15 KTS.
WED...-SHRA/-TSRA/MVFR LIKELY, CHANCE IFR. WIND SE 10-15 KTS.
MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MN...NONE.
WI...NONE.
DISCUSSION...TDH
AVIATION...NDC
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