976
FXUS63 KMPX 111051
AFDMPX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
551 AM CDT SAT APR 11 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- AN ACTIVE PATTERN BEGINS TODAY AND WILL CONTINUE THROUGH MID
WEEK. GREATEST RISK FOR STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS IS MONDAY AND
TUESDAY.
- MUCH WARMER AND HUMID SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 328 AM CDT SAT APR 11 2026
CLOUDS ARE MOVING IN FROM THE SOUTHWEST TO THE NORTHEAST THIS
MORNING. TEMPERATURES HAVE DROPPED INTO THE UPPER 20S AND 30S NORTH
OF THE CLOUD COVER WHILE LOCATIONS IN SW/S MN HAVE WARMED INTO THE
40S. TEMPERATURES WILL GRADUALLY WARM THROUGHOUT THE DAY WITH HIGHS
IN THE LOW 50S. AN 40+ KT LOW LEVEL JET WILL MOVE EAST THROUGHOUT
THE DAY. THIS WILL LEAD TO THE DEVELOPMENT OF SHOWERS LATER THIS
MORNING ACROSS MN INTO W WI VIA STRONG ISENTROPIC LIFT. THE HI-RES
CAMS CONTINUE TO STRUGGLE WITH ADEQUATE COVERAGE AND QPF BUT THAT'S
NOT TOO CONCERNING GIVEN THEIR STRUGGLES IN WAA REGIMES AS
PREVIOUSLY MENTIONED. ECMWF AND AIFS CAPTURE THE GENERAL IDEA WITH A
BROAD AREA OF 0.25" TO 0.50"+ ACROSS E MN AND W WI BY TONIGHT.
INSTABILITY IS VERY LIMITED THAT WILL ACT TO MINIMIZE CONVECTION
WITH THE INITIAL ROUND THIS AFTERNOON. A BETTER SURGE OF WAA ARRIVES
IN THE EVENING. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR MUCAPE TO CREEP INTO THE EASTERN
CWA AND INTRODUCE ISOLATED THUNDER CHANCES ACROSS E MN AND W WI. OUR
FORCING WILL SHIFT EAST OVERNIGHT AND PRECIPITATION FOLLOWS. THIS
WILL ALLOW HEAVIER RAIN TO END, BUT FORECAST SOUNDINGS CONTINUE TO
SUPPORT THE DEVELOPMENT OF DRIZZLE AND FOG OVERNIGHT AS TEMPERATURES
AND DEW POINTS INCREASE.
SUNDAY'S FORECAST HAS IMPROVED & NOW LOOKS LIKE IT COULD BE A SNEAKY
NICE DAY. OUR SURFACE LOW WILL MOVE ALONG THE INTERNATIONAL BORDER
THAT WILL PLACE THE DRY SLOT OVERHEAD SUNDAY AFTERNOON. THE
TEMPERATURE FORECAST CONTINUES TO PRESENT SOME UNCERTAINTY. IF SKIES
CAN CLEAR QUICKER, TEMPERATURES LIKELY WARM INTO THE LOWER 80S
SUNDAY AFTERNOON. HOWEVER, IF PRECIPITATION SLOWS IT'S DEPARTURE AND
CLOUDS LINGER LONGER INTO SUNDAY AFTERNOON, HIGHS WILL LIKELY END UP
IN THE 70S. WE'VE OPTED FOR THE MORE AGGRESSIVE, WARMER LOOK GIVEN
THE DRY SLOT SIGNATURE. PRECIPITATION SHIFTS EAST BY DAYBREAK FOR MN
AND SHOULD WRAP UP BY EARLY AFTERNOON IN W WI. SEVERE WEATHER
CHANCES ARE PRIMARILY OVER W WI WHERE WE HAVE A DAY 2 MARGINAL RISK.
CAMS AREN'T THRILLED WITH SEVERE CHANCES AS THE DRY SLOT KEEPS THE
BETTER MOISTURE WELL EAST OF OUR CWA.
MONDAY AND TUESDAY WILL OFFER LEGITIMATE SEVERE WEATHER CHANCES. ON
MONDAY, A SURFACE BOUNDARY IN PLACE FROM SUNDAY WILL ACTIVATE AND
PUSH BACK NORTH AS A WARM FRONT. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL WARM BACK
INTO THE 70S WITH TD'S INTO THE LOWER 60S ALONG I-90. THIS WILL SET
THE STAGE FOR INSTABILITY TO BUILD IN DURING THE AFTERNOON. FORECAST
SOUNDINGS HIGHLIGHT MODERATE INSTABILITY WITH STRONG SHEAR PRESENT
IN THE VERTICAL PROFILE. THE LIMITING FACTOR WILL BE THE AMOUNT OF
CAPPING PRESENT. UNFORTUNATELY, CAPPING WILL BE LESS OF AN ISSUE
ALONG THE WARM FRONT THAT WILL LOCATED OVER MN AND WI. THIS FRONTAL
BOUNDARY SHOULD ACT AS A FOCUS POINT FOR CONVECTIVE INITIATION LATE
MONDAY AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING. GUIDANCE SPREAD VARIES WHERE THE
ROBUST CONVECTION INITIATES AND TRACKS WITH SOME SOLUTIONS FAVORING
INITIAL STORMS QUICKLY GROWING UPSCALE INTO AN MCS. THIS SOLUTION
WOULDN'T BE TOO SURPRISING GIVEN THE SET UP. SPC HAS INTRODUCED A
SLIGHT RISK (2/5) THAT IS CENTERED OVER THE MPX AND ARX FORECAST
AREAS. ALL SEVERE HAZARDS WOULD BE POSSIBLE, ALONG WITH THE
POTENTIAL FOR TRAINING STORMS AND HEAVY RAIN.
TUESDAY'S SET UP IS LESS CLEAR GIVEN THE POTENTIAL SPREAD ON
MONDAY'S SCENARIO. GUIDANCE BRINGS A SFC LOW OUT OF THE PLAINS INTO
S MN BY TUESDAY EVENING. THE LONGER WE'RE ABLE TO BE IN THE WARM
SECTOR, THE BETTER OUR CHANCES FOR SEVERE WEATHER ONCE AGAIN TUESDAY
AFTERNOON/EVENING. THE GREATEST CONCERN APPEARS TO BE OVER S MN
WHERE THE SFC LOW TRACKS THROUGH. A DAY 4 15% REMAINS OVER OUR
SOUTHERN CWA FOR TUESDAY. ALL HAZARDS WOULD ONCE AGAIN BE POSSIBLE.
THERE ARE SOME SOLUTIONS THAT INITIATE A BUNCH OF SHOWERS AND STORMS
AHEAD OF THE LOW AND THAT WOULD ACT TO LIMIT SEVERE CHANCES.
TEMPERATURES DO WARM BACK INTO THE 70S ONCE AGAIN BUT IF A
CLOUDIER/WETTER LOOK VERIFY IT MAY END UP ON THE COOLER SIDE OF THE
FORECAST. WE WILL DRY OUT MID WEEK BEFORE ANOTHER SHORTWAVE COMES
OUT OF THE WESTERN CONUS AT THE END OF NEXT WEEK.
AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SUNDAY/
ISSUED AT 544 AM CDT SAT APR 11 2026
SCATTERED SHOWERS OVER SW MN WILL GRADUALLY PUSH NE OVER THE
NEXT SEVERAL HOURS. LIGHT AND VARIABLE SURFACE WINDS WILL
TURN TO THE SOUTHEAST BY DAYBREAK AND INCREASE THROUGHOUT THE
DAY. GUSTS PEAK BETWEEN 25 TO 30 KNOTS. THE GREATEST CONCERN
CONTINUES TO BE THE ARRIVAL OF SHOWERS AND MVFR AND IFR
CIGS/VSBY THIS AFTERNOON. THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL REMAINS
UNCERTAIN, BUT A STORMS SHOULD BE EMBEDDED IN THE BROADER AREA
OF SHOWERS. LOW CONFIDENCE ON WHAT TERMINALS WILL BE IMPACTED
BUT I'VE ADDED A FEW PROB30S WITH SITES THAT HAVE SLIGHTLY
HIGHER CONFIDENCE OF -TSRA. SHOWERS AND ANY THUNDERSTORMS
SHOULD EXIT THE REGION TONIGHT, BUT LOW CIGS & DRIZZLE WILL
LIKELY LINGER OVERNIGHT INTO SUNDAY MORNING. WINDS DECREASE
SLIGHTLY AFTER SUNSET, BUT REMAIN GUSTY.
KMSP... PRIMARY CONCERN CONTINUES TO BE THE TIMING OF THE
SHOWERS AND MVFR CIGS/VSBY THIS AFTERNOON. CURRENT TRENDS TIME
IT'S ARRIVAL SLIGHTLY EARLIER THAN THE PREVIOUS TAF.
ANTICIPATE ONSET OF PRECIPITATION AS EARLY AS LATE MORNING,
FOLLOWED BY MVFR CIGS EARLY AFTERNOON. THIS EVENING WILL BRING
US IFR CIGS AND A NON-ZERO CHANCE OF SOME THUNDER. FUTURE
UPDATES MAY NEED TO INCLUDE A PROB30 FOR THUNDER IF OBSERVATIONS
OR GUIDANCE SUPPORT IT.
/OUTLOOK FOR
KMSP/ SUN...MVFR/-TSRA EARLY, THEN VFR. WIND SW 15-20G30 KTS.
MON...VFR EARLY, THEN CHC MVFR/-TSRA. WIND SE 5-10 KTS.
TUE...MVFR. CHC -TSRA. WIND NE 5-10 KTS.
MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MN...NONE.
WI...NONE.
DISCUSSION...BPH
AVIATION...BPH
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