234  
FXUS63 KMPX 232028  
AFDMPX  
 
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION  
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN  
228 PM CST SUN FEB 23 2020  
   
SHORT TERM
 
(THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT)  
ISSUED AT 210 PM CST SUN FEB 23 2020  
 
DUE TO SOME SNOW MELT TODAY, AND THE COMBINATION OF A STRONG  
INVERSION DEVELOPING OVERNIGHT AS WINDS BECOME LIGHT, AREAS OF FOG  
MAY FORM. THE BEST LOCATIONS WILL BE IN WESTERN/SOUTHERN  
MINNESOTA WHERE LOCAL TERRAIN AND LIGHTER WINDS WILL BE OPTIMIZE.  
 
MONDAY WILL SEE A LOT MORE CLOUD COVER AS TWO SYSTEMS BEGIN TO  
OVERSPREAD THE UPPER MIDWEST. THE FIRST SYSTEM IS MOVING OUT OF  
THE SOUTHERN ROCKIES THIS AFTERNOON WITH A BROAD AREA OF SHOWERS  
DEVELOPING IN THE MID SECTION OF THE NATION TONIGHT/MONDAY. THE  
SURFACE LOW IS EXPECTED TO INTENSIFY NEAR THE KANSAS/OKLAHOMA  
BORDER AND MOVE EAST-NORTHEAST THROUGH THE MID-MISSISSIPPI RIVER  
VALLEY BY MONDAY NIGHT. A SECONDARY STORM SYSTEM WHICH IS  
CURRENTLY MOVING INTO THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST, WILL MERGE WITH THE  
SYSTEM OVER THE MID-MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY MONDAY NIGHT. THE  
PHASING OF THESE TWO SYSTEMS AND THE RELATIVELY SOUTHERN SHIFT IN  
THE MAIN UPPER LOW EXPECTED MONDAY NIGHT, ANY PRECIPITATION WILL  
BE CONFINED TO THE BUFFALO RIDGE AREA AS NORTHEASTERLY FLOW WILL  
ENHANCE ANY CLOUDS/PRECIPITATION DEVELOPMENT THROUGH TUESDAY  
MORNING.  
   
LONG TERM
 
(TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)  
ISSUED AT 225 PM CST SUN FEB 23 2020  
 
TUESDAY WILL BE THE BEST CHANCE IN THE NEXT 7 DAYS TO RECEIVE ANY  
MEASURABLE PRECIPITATION. HOWEVER, ANY PRECIPITATION WILL BE VERY  
LIGHT AND CONFINED TO SOUTHWEST, AND SOUTH CENTRAL MINNESOTA  
WHERE UP TO AN INCH OF SNOW IS POSSIBLE. FARTHER TO THE  
NORTH/NORTHEAST, A DRY NORTHEASTERLY FLOW IN THE BOUNDARY LAYER,  
WITH THE ADDED SOUTHERN SHIFT IN THE STORM SYSTEM, WILL LEAD TO  
LITTLE OR NO PRECIPITATION. EVEN IF THERE WAS A SHIFT BACK TO THE  
NORTH WITH THE STORM SYSTEM, PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS SHOULDN'T BE  
IMPACTFUL. THE 90 PERCENTILE OF THE NBM (SNOWFALL AMOUNTS IN 24  
HOURS) STILL SUGGEST ONLY FAR SOUTHERN MINNESOTA GETTING ANY  
CHANCE OF A FEW INCHES OF SNOW. CURRENTLY THE OUTLIER IS THE GFS  
WHICH HAS THE NORTHERN BIAS OF THE STORM MOVEMENT. THE EC/GEM  
SOLUTIONS ARE WELL SOUTH OF OUR REGION. BY TUESDAY NIGHT THIS  
SYSTEM SHIFTS TO THE GREAT LAKES WITH NORTHERLY WINDS USHERING IN  
MUCH COOLER AIR FOR THE LATTER PART OF THE WORK WEEK.  
 
PAST TUESDAY NIGHT, MODELS SUPPORT A NORTH/NORTHWESTERLY FLOW  
ALOFT. THIS IS RELATIVELY A DRY FLOW BUT I CAN'T RULE OUT A FEW  
FLURRIES/LIGHT SNOW EVENT IF ANY WEAK SHORT WAVE MOVES SOUTHEAST  
ALONG THE AMPLIFIED TROUGH THAT WILL BE CENTERED OVER THE  
EASTERN CONUS.  
 
NEXT WEEKEND, AND INTO THE FIRST WEEK OF MARCH, A LARGE RIDGE  
MOVES OVERHEAD. THIS WILL LEAD TO MODERATING TEMPERATURES LATE  
NEXT WEEKEND, AND POSSIBLY INTO THE FIRST WEEK OF MARCH.  
 

 
   
AVIATION
 
(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY AFTERNOON)  
ISSUED AT 1125 AM CST SUN FEB 23 2020  
 
NO WEATHER CONCERNS THROUGH THIS EVENING WITH GUSTY WEST/NORTHWEST  
WINDS THIS AFTERNOON, DIMINISHING THIS EVENING, AND BECOMING  
NORTHEAST MONDAY MORNING. THERE IS A POSSIBILITY OF IFR VSBY  
DEVELOPING, ESPECIALLY OVER SOUTH CENTRAL/SOUTHWEST, AND WEST  
CENTRAL MINNESOTA OVERNIGHT. CONFIDENCE IS LOW, BUT ENOUGH TO  
INTRODUCE IFR VSBYS FROM KAXN-KRWF-KMKT.  
 
KMSP...  
 
GUSTY WINDS THIS AFTERNOON FROM THE WEST/NORTHWEST, BUT  
DIMINISHING THIS EVENING, AND BECOMING NORTHEAST ON MONDAY. ANY  
WEATHER CONCERNS WILL BE AFTER 00Z/25.  
 
/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/  
 
MON LATE...MVFR. WIND NE 5-10 KTS.  
TUE...MVFR WITH CHC -SN/IFR. WIND NNE 15G25 KTS.  
WED...CHC MVFR CIGS. WIND NNW 15G25 KTS.  
 

 
   
MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
 
 
WI...NONE.  
MN...NONE.  

 
 

 
 
SHORT TERM...JLT  
LONG TERM...JLT  
AVIATION...JLT  
 
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