857
FXUS63 KMPX 022007
AFDMPX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
307 PM CDT WED SEP 2 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE LATE THURSDAY AFTERNOON &
EVENING.
- HEAT & HUMIDITY RETURN FOR FRIDAY INTO THE WEEKEND. HEAT INDEX
VALUES AROUND 100 DEGREES LIKELY.
- FREQUENT CHANCES FOR SCATTERED SHOWERS & THUNDERSTORMS INTO
NEXT WEEK.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 226 PM CDT WED SEP 2 2026
TONIGHT:
QUIET WEATHER TONIGHT WITH CLOUD COVER BEGINNING TO INCREASE
OVERNIGHT. PATCHY FOG IS POSSIBLE ACROSS SOUTHERN MINNESOTA
WHERE 1-2: OF RAIN FELL LAST NIGHT, MOST PRONOUNCED IN VALLEYS &
OTHER LOW-LYING AREAS.
THURSDAY MORNING:
A LOW-LEVEL JET OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS STRENGTHENS OVERNIGHT,
NOSING INTO SOUTHERN MINNESOTA & SOUTHWEST WISCONSIN BY EARLY
TOMORROW MORNING. SCATTERED SHOWERS & THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED
TO DEVELOP ON THE NOSE OF THIS JET, WITH THE BEST CHANCE FOR
SOME RAIN EXPECTED FROM SOUTHERN MINNESOTA INTO WESTERN
WISCONSIN. SPORADIC WIND GUSTS OF 30-40 MPH & SMALL HAIL CAN'T
BE RULED OUT WITH THE STRONGEST OF THESE THUNDERSTORMS, BUT THE
THREAT FOR ANY STRONG THUNDERSTORMS IS HIGHER OFF TO OUR SOUTH.
HIGH-RESOLUTION MODELS STILL REMAIN WIDELY VARIED IN DEPICTING
HOW THESES SHOWERS & STORMS WILL EVOLVE INTO TOMORROW MORNING,
SO CONFIDENCE REMAINS LOW ON FORECASTING JUST HOW WIDESPREAD THE
RAIN WILL BE & HOW LONG IT MAY LINGER INTO THURSDAY MORNING.
THURSDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING:
THE ANSWER TO THE ABOVE QUESTION WILL PLAY A LARGE ROLE ON WHAT
KIND OF POTENTIAL MAY DEVELOP FOR THUNDERSTORMS LATER THURSDAY
AFTERNOON & EVENING. SYNOPTICALLY, AN IMPRESSIVE ENVIRONMENT FOR
SEVERE WEATHER WILL DEVELOP OVER THE UPPER MIDWEST THURSDAY AS
AN UPPER LEVEL JET WITH 50 KTS OF DEEP SHEAR DEVELOPS LONG THE
NORTHERN TIER OF THE CONUS, WHILE AN ELEVATED MIXED LAYER
ADVECTING FROM OVER THE ROCKIES PROVIDES VERY STEEP LAPSE RATES
AROUND 8 C/KM. HOWEVER WE WON'T HAVE MUCH OF SURFACE BOUNDARY
OVER THE AREA TO INITIATE STORMS, SO OUR SEVERE POTENTIAL WILL
DEPEND GREATLY ON HOW MUCH INSTABILITY WE CAN REALIZE BY THE
AFTERNOON. WARM & MOIST ADVECTION THROUGH THE DAY WILL PROVIDE
THE CONDITIONS FOR CAPE VALUES TO REACH 3000-4000 J/KG - IF
WE'RE ABLE TO REMAIN SUNNY THROUGH THE AFTERNOON & WARM INTO THE
UPPER 80S TO LOW 90S. IT'S NO SURPRISE THAT THE SAME HIGH-
RESOLUTION MODES THAT REMAIN WIDELY VARIED REGARDING THE SHOWERS
& THUNDERSTORMS TOMORROW MORNING & ALSO WIDELY VARIED WITH HOW
THEY DEPICT THE SECOND ROUND OF THUNDERSTORMS DURING THE
AFTERNOON/EVENING. GENERALLY, THE WETTER/CLOUDIER SOLUTIONS
HOLD OFF ANY THUNDERSTORMS UNTIL LATER IN THE NIGHT WHEN A
POTENTIAL MCS COULD ARRIVE OUT OF THE DAKOTAS, WHILE THE DRIER
SOLUTIONS ARE ABLE TO DEVELOP SOME DISCRETE STORMS OVER CENTRAL
& SOUTHERN MINNESOTA BY LATE AFTERNOON.
CONFIDENCE IS LOW, BUT THE GENERAL TREND SEEMS TO BE TOWARDS THE
SHOWERS & CLOUD COVER LINGERING LONGER INTO THE MORNING &
AFTERNOON. THIS DOES NOT MEAN WE'RE DONE WITH A SEVERE THREAT
TOMORROW EVENING THOUGH, AS THERE ARE SIGNS THAT THUNDERSTORMS
DEVELOPING CLOSER TOT HE SURFACE LOW OVER THE DAKOTAS COULD
CONGEAL INTO A MCS THAT EVENTUALLY PROPAGATES THROUGH THE AREA
LATER IN THE EVENING & NIGHT. DAMAGING WIND WILL BE THE PRIMARY
SEVERE THREAT WITH ANY STORMS THAT DEVELOP, ESPECIALLY IF WE
GET THE FORWARD-PROOAPGATING MCS OUT OF THE DAKOTAS, WHILE VERY
LARGE HAIL IS POSSIBLE EARLIER IN THE EVENING WITH ANY DISCRETE
STORMS THAT DEVELOP OVER CENTRAL/SOUTHERN MINNESOTA. HEAVY
DOWNPOURS ARE EXPECTED WITH THUNDERSTORMS BUT THEY SHOULD BE
MOVING FAST ENOUGH TO MITIGATE ANY HEAVY RAIN/FLOODING CONCERNS.
FRIDAY-THIS WEEKEND:
WARM ADVECTION CONTINUES INTO THE WEEKEND WITH A RETURN TO MORE
SUMMER LIKE HUMIDITY VALUES, ALONG WITH TEMPERATURES IN THE
UPPER 80S TO LOW 90S. EXCESSIVE HEAT COULD BECOME A CONCERNS AS
HEAT INDEX VALUES APPROACH 100 DEGREES, BUT WE ARE STILL COMING
OFF OF A VERY WARM JULY-AUGUST SO ACCLIMATION MEANS WE'RE
PROBABLY ABLE TO PUSH OUR EXCESSIVE HEAT THRESHOLDS A LITTLE
HIGHER THAN NORMAL. FRIDAY LOOKS TO BE DRY BUT ANOTHER CHANCE
FOR ISOLATED TO SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS LOOKS LIKELY OVERNIGHT
INTO EARLY SATURDAY MORNING. MODELS REMAIN WIDELY SPREAD IN
POSSIBLE PRECIPITATION EVENTS THROUGH THE REST OF THE WEEKEND,
SO EVEN THOUGH OUR FORECAST SHOWS 30-40% POPS, IT WON'T BE A
WASHOUT OF A WEEKEND.
NEXT WEEK:
THE UPPER AIR PATTERN REMAINS ACTIVE AS A NUMBER OF
DISTURBANCES RIDE OVER THE RIDGE CENTERED OVER THE REGION.
CONFIDENCE IS LOW ON WHEN & WHERE THE GREATEST PRECIPITATION
CHANCES WILL BE, BUT THERE AT LEAST APPEARS TO BE SOME MINOR
RELIEF COMING FROM OUR DROUGHT. TEMPERATURES WILL DEPEND ON THE
TIMING OF ANY PRECIPITATION SYSTEMS, BUT WILL TEND TO BE ABOVE-
NORMAL EARLIER IN THE WEEK WITH SOME COOLING RELIEF LIKELY LATER
IN THE WEEK.
AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z FRIDAY/
ISSUED AT 119 PM CDT WED SEP 2 2026
VFR THROUGH TONIGHT WITH A FEW MID-LEVEL CLOUDS & LIGHT EASTERLY
WINDS. LOW CONFIDENCE FORE CAST ON THE CHANCE FOR SCATTERED
SHOWERS & THUNDERSTORMS TOMORROW MORNING. BEST CHANCES SEEM TO
BE FROM SOUTH-CENTRAL MINNESOTA THROUGH WESTERN WISCONSIN
(MAINLY IMPACTING MKT/EAU, LESSER CHANCE AT MSP/RNH). WILL KEEP
PROB30S GOING FOR SHRA/TSRA INTO THIS EVENING.
SOUTHERLY WINDS DEVELOP TOMORROW MORNING WITH GUSTS NEAR 20 KTS
BY THE AFTERNOON. ANOTHER ROUND OF THUNDERSTORMS IS POSSIBLE
TOMORROW EVENING, BUT THIS WILL GREATLY DEPEND ON HOW WIDESPREAD
THE MORNING RAIN COULD BE & HOW LONG CLOUD COVER LINGERS INTO
THE AFTERNOON. SHOULD ANY EVENING STORMS DEVELOP, THEY WILL
LIKELY BE STRONG/SEVERE.
KMSP...LOW CHANCE FOR SHRA/TSRA THROUGH TOMORROW MORNING, MOST
LIKELY BETWEEN 12-15Z. MORE CONCERN IS WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR
ANY STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS TOMORROW EVENING, BUT CONFIDENCE IS
VERY LOW ON WHETHER STORMS WILL FORM & WHERE THEY COULD TRACK.
/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/
FRI...VFR. WIND S 5-10 KTS.
SAT...VFR. CHANCE -TSRA LATE. WIND SE 5-10 KTS.
SUN...VFR. CHANCE -TSRA. WIND SSE 5-10 KTS.
MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MN...NONE.
WI...NONE.
DISCUSSION...ETA
AVIATION...ETA
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