489
FXUS63 KMPX 061749
AFDMPX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
1149 AM CST FRI FEB 6 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- BREEZY TODAY WITH COOL DOWN INTO THE SINGLE DIGITS TONIGHT.
- ABOVE AVERAGE TEMPERATURES RESUME OUR MID TO LATE WINTER THAW
NEXT WEEK.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 225 AM CST FRI FEB 6 2026
A BRIEF WAVE OF LIGHT SNOW FELL ACROSS WESTERN WISCONSIN EARLY
THIS MORNING, OTHERWISE DRY AIR NEAR THE SURFACE WON OUT FOR THE
MAJORITY OF THE EVENT. LINGERING SNOW SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE
THROUGH SUNRISE BEHIND THIS WAVE. A PERIOD OF ELEVATED WINDS
WILL LAST THROUGH AROUND SUNSET, WITH GUSTS UP TO 40 MPH
POSSIBLE ACROSS PORTIONS OF WESTERN AND SOUTHERN MINNESOTA. WE
DO NOT ANTICIPATE REACHING WIND ADVISORY CRITERIA, THOUGH THESE
CAA REGIMES TEND TO LAND ON THE HIGHER END OF MODEL GUIDANCE AND
COULD PRODUCE SPORADIC GUSTS IN EXCESS OF 40 MPH. THESE STRONG
NORTHWEST WINDS WILL RESULT IN ONE OF THOSE SCENARIOS WHERE OUR
HIGH OCCURS AT MIDNIGHT AND WE DECREASE TEMPERATURE THROUGHOUT
THE ENTIRE DAY. THIS WILL DROP OVERNIGHT LOWS INTO THE SINGLE
DIGITS AND STUNT HIGHS IN THE 20S ON SATURDAY. THIS COULD BE OUR
COLDEST 24 HOUR STRETCH OVER THE NEXT 10 DAYS, AS THE UPPER
LEVEL PATTERN WILL SUPPORT RIDGING TO BUILD ACROSS THE CENTRAL
US.
NORMAL HIGHS AND LOWS FOR EARLY-MID FEBRUARY ARE IN THE UPPER
20S AND LOW TEENS. STARTING ON SUNDAY, EACH DAY NEXT WEEK IS
LIKELY TO RUN AT LEAST 5 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL, AND POTENTIALLY
EVEN 10 TO 20 DEGREES. MONDAY LOOKS TO HAVE THE HIGHEST CEILING,
AS A CLIPPER TRACKING ACROSS SOUTHERN CANADA COULD ENHANCE
SOUTHERLY FLOW ACROSS THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. THE LATEST
NBM PLACES 50S ACROSS SOUTHWEST MINNESOTA AND WIDESPREAD HIGHS
NEAR 40 ELSEWHERE. THE NBM 90TH PERCENTILE SUGGESTS HIGHS COULD
EVEN CREEP AT LEAST A FEW DEGREES ABOVE 40 FOR MANY LOCATIONS,
THOUGH INCREASED CLOUD COVER ASSOCIATED WITH THE SURFACE LOW
WOULD LIKELY LIMIT DAYTIME HEATING. PERHAPS THE MORE INTERESTING
ASPECT OF THE FORECAST ARE THE DEWPOINTS CLIMBING WELL INTO THE
30S BY MONDAY, WHICH COULD DO A NUMBER TO OUR REMAINING
SNOWPACK.
THERE IS NO MAJOR SIGNAL FOR PRECIPITATION OVER THE NEXT 7 DAYS.
OUR BEST CHANCE WILL LIKELY BE DURING THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK AS
THE SURFACE HIGH EXITS EAST AND A SERIES OF WEAK WAVES ATTEMPT
TO TAKE ADVANTAGE OF OUR SURGE IN MOISTURE AT THE START OF THE
WEEK. THIS REASONABLY ALIGNS WITH THE NBM'S CONSISTENT POPS OF
10 TO 20 PERCENT TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY.
AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY/
ISSUED AT 1138 AM CST FRI FEB 6 2026
EARLIER MVFR CEILINGS HAVE MOSTLY SCATTERED OUT WITH THE
EXCEPTION OF MKT. MKT WILL SCATTER AN HOUR OR TWO AFTER TAF
ISSUANCE. ALL SITES WILL STAY VFR THROUGHOUT THE REMAINDER OF
THE PERIOD. NORTHWEST WINDS 15G25KTS THROUGH EARLY EVENING
BEFORE DECREASING TO 5KTS OVERNIGHT. WIND DIRECTIONS WILL BE
SOMEWHAT VARIABLE LATE TONIGHT BEFORE SLOWLY TURNING TO THE
SOUTHEAST AFTER DAYBREAK SATURDAY.
KMSP... NO ADDITIONAL CONCERNS.
/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/
SUN...VFR. WIND SW 5-10 KTS.
MON...VFR. WIND VRB 0-5 KTS.
TUE...VFR. WIND NW 5-10 KTS.
MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MN...NONE.
WI...NONE.
DISCUSSION...BED
AVIATION...BPH
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