839
FXUS63 KMPX 231107
AFDMPX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
607 AM CDT SAT MAY 23 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- SCATTERED SHOWERS TODAY EAST OF I-35.
- TURNING WARMER SUNDAY, WITH HIGHS IN THE 80S AND EVEN 90S
EXPECTED SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY
- LOW CHANCES FOR DISORGANIZED THUNDERSTORMS AT TIMES NEXT
WEEK, BUT NO WIDESPREAD RAIN IS EXPECTED.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 259 AM CDT SAT MAY 23 2026
A SURFACE LOW THIS MORNING IS TRACKING SLOWLY NORTH ACROSS EASTERN
NODAK, WITH ITS COLD FRONT SLOWLY PUSHING EAST ACROSS WESTERN MN.
THIS COLD FRONT WILL SLOWLY WORK EAST ACROSS THE MPX AREA TODAY.
AHEAD OF IT, A PLUME OF DEEPER MOISTURE WILL RESULT IN CLOUDY SKIES,
THOUGH AS THE SURFACE AND UPPER LOW TRAVEL DEEPER INTO CENTRAL
CANADA, THIS FRONT WILL BE LOSING ITS FORCING. THE RESULT WILL BE
SCATTERED NUISANCE SHOWERS TODAY FOR WHOMEVER IS EAST OF THE FRONT
(SO AREAS ALONG AND EAST OF THE I-35 CORRIDOR). THE OTHER POTENTIAL
AREA OF ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS THIS AFTERNOON WILL BE IN
CENTRAL MN AS DIURNAL SHOWERS COULD POP WITHIN THE CYCLONIC FLOW TO
THE SOUTH OF THE SURFACE LOW. AFTER TODAY, IT'S SLIM PICKINGS FOR
THE NEXT COUPLE OF WEEKS TO FIND ANY RAIN CHANCES OUT THERE.
FOR SUNDAY THROUGH NEXT WEEK, ENSEMBLES REMAIN IN GOOD AGREEMENT ON
THE DEVELOPMENT OF A REX BLOCKING PATTERN OVER CENTRAL NORTH
AMERICA. THE MPX AREA WILL END UP JUST SOUTH OF THE CLOSED H5 HIGH
OVER THE SOUTHERN CANADIAN PRAIRIES, WHICH PUTS US IN AN AREA OF
WEAK FLOW AND LITTLE FORCING. THE ONLY PERIOD WHERE WE'RE SEEING
ANYTHING CLOSE TO A ROBUST SIGNAL FOR RAINFALL COMES SUNDAY NIGHT
INTO MONDAY. HERE, A WEAK LLJ IS FORECAST TO PERSIST ACROSS SOUTHERN
MN INTO WESTERN WI. PERSISTENT WAA WITHIN THIS LLJ WILL LIKELY BE
ENOUGH TO GENERATE SOME SCATTERED SHOWERS SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH
MEMORIAL DAY FROM THE I-90 CORRIDOR UP TOWARD THE I-94 CORRIDOR IN
WESTERN WI. AFTER THAT, A HUDSON HIGH SETTLING IN OVER THE GREAT
LAKES WILL BLOCK ANY MOISTURE FROM GETTING AS FAR EAST AS MN. AS FOR
TEMPERATURES, SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL ALLOW FOR A GRADUAL UPTICK IN
TEMPERATURES EACH DAY SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY. WE'LL GET INTO THE 80S
SUNDAY, JUMP UP TO THE MID/UPPER 80S MEMORIAL DAY, THEN PEAK IN THE
UPPER 80S/LOWER 90S TUESDAY. THOUGH THERE IS SOME CONCERN THAT THE
NBM IS RUNNING A LITTLE HOT FOR THOSE HIGHS ON TUESDAY. WEDNESDAY,
AS THE HUDSON HIGH MOVES INTO THE GREAT LAKES, WE'LL SEE OUR
SOUTHERLY WINDS BECOME EASTERLY FOR THE REST OF THE WEEK. THERE WILL
BE PLENTY OF WARM AIR STILL IN PLACE TO SEE HIGHS BACK INTO THE
MID/UPPER 80S FOR WEDNESDAY, BUT THOSE EASTERLY WINDS WILL PUSH
HIGHS BACK DOWN INTO THE 70S FOR THE END OF THE WEEK. ALSO FALLING
WILL BE THE DEWPOINTS, WITH THIS FALLING BACK INTO THE 40S FOR THE
END OF NEXT WEEK. SO ALTHOUGH SOME RAIN WOULD BE NICE, IT'S HARD TO
COMPLAIN ABOUT TEMPERATURES IN THE 70S WITH DEWPOINTS IN THE 40S
UNDER SUNNY SKIES.
AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SUNDAY/
ISSUED AT 558 AM CDT SAT MAY 23 2026
MAIN CONCERN THIS PERIOD IS TIMING IMPROVEMENTS TO CIGS THROUGH
THE MORNING. ANY RAIN THIS PERIOD WILL BE CONFINED TO WESTERN WI
THIS MORNING. MAINLY MVFR CIGS WILL GIVE WAY TO CLOUDS
SCATTERING OUT BY EARLY AFTERNOON OUTSIDE OF CENTRAL MN AND
WESTERN WI. WINDS WILL TURN OVER TO THE WNW TODAY, THEN START
BECOMING SOUTHERLY OVERNIGHT.
KMSP...RAP SOUNDINGS CONTINUE TO SHOW MSP SCATTERING OUT BY
NOON, SO CONTINUE TO RUN WITH A MORE OPTIMISTIC SKY FORECAST
THAN THE LAV.
/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/
SUN...VFR. WIND SW 10-15 KTS.
MON...VFR. WIND SW 5-10 KTS.
TUE...VFR. WIND S 5-10KTS.
MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MN...NONE.
WI...NONE.
DISCUSSION...MPG
AVIATION...MPG
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