095
FXUS63 KMPX 081147
AFDMPX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
547 AM CST SUN FEB 8 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES EXPECTED THROUGH NEXT WEEKEND, WITH
GROWING POTENTIAL FOR MID-WEEK SNOW.
- WARMEST DAY WILL BE MONDAY, WITH 50S POSSIBLE FOR LOCATIONS
IN SOUTHWESTERN MN.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 303 AM CST SUN FEB 8 2026
TODAY...A BLANKET OF LOW-LEVEL STRATUS HAS OVERSPREAD MUCH OF
MINNESOTA AND WISCONSIN EARLY THIS MORNING. THE ONLY AREA OF
CLEAR SKIES IS OVER SOUTHWEST MINNESOTA, ALLOWING FOR MORE
EFFECTIVE RADIATIONAL COOLING. OTHERWISE LOWS ARE A GOOD 10 TO
15 DEGREES WARMER THIS MORNING COMPARED TO YESTERDAY. THIS WILL
GIVE US A HEAD START FOR THE DAY, ALLOWING HIGHS TO CLIMB NEAR
OR ABOVE FREEZING AT MOST LOCATIONS. THE EXTENT TO WHICH WE
WARM WILL BE AT LEAST PARTIALLY DEPENDENT ON HOW QUICKLY, IF AT
ALL, THE STRATUS CAN SCATTER OUT. LATEST BLEND OF HI-RES
GUIDANCE FAVORS A MID-AFTERNOON TIMEFRAME FOR CLEARING SKIES
THOUGH THERE IS SOME SPREAD WITH THE HRRR/RAP HAVING CLOUDS
CLEAR BY NOON, WHEREAS THE NAM REPRESENTS THE OPPOSITE END WITH
CLOUDS AROUND THROUGH THE EVENING. THIS IS LIKELY TOO
PESSIMISTIC, AND WE EXPECT AT LEAST SOME CLEARING TO OCCUR
THROUGHOUT THE DAY.
MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...MILD AND MOSTLY DRY CONDITIONS
CONTINUE INTO NEXT WEEKEND. OUR 500MB HEIGHT ANOMALIES SHOW A
SLOWLY PROPAGATING SHORTWAVE ALONG THE CANADA/US BORDER. THIS
WILL FLATTEN THE NORTHERN PERIPHERY OF THE MID-LEVEL RIDGE,
LIMITING TEMPERATURES FROM WARMING EVEN MORE THAN THEY WILL AND
DEVELOPING A WEAK CLIPPER THAT'LL TRACK ACROSS NORTHERN MN ON
MONDAY. THERE REMAINS ENSEMBLE AND DETERMINISTIC SUPPORT FOR A
BAND OF LIGHT QPF (ONLY A FEW HUNDREDTHS AT MOST) ACROSS
CENTRAL MN MONDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING. THE EXACT LOCATION OF THE
BAND VARIES, LIKELY ONLY FALLING OVER A 1 TO 2 COUNTY WIDTH PATH
WHERE THE STRONGEST FGEN OCCURS. THE COMBINATION OF LIGHT QPF
AND LOW CONFIDENCE HAS CAPPED POPS AROUND 10 TO 20 PERCENT FOR
LOCATIONS NORTH OF I-94 IN CENTRAL MN. FORECAST SOUNDINGS
SUPPORT A TRANSITION FROM RAIN TO SNOW AS THE THERMAL PROFILE
COOLS DOWN JUST AFTER THE ONSET OF ANY PRECIPITATION.
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES IN BEHIND THIS WAVE, RESULTING IN
A DAY OR TWO OF MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHTER WINDS. THE NEXT
CHANCE FOR MORE WIDESPREAD PRECIP COMES THURSDAY, WITH MAINLY
SNOW EXPECTED DESPITE WARMER SURFACE TEMPS. FORCING FOR THIS
PRECIP COMES AHEAD OF A MID-LEVEL SHORTWAVE EJECTING DOWN FROM
CANADA ALONG THE NORTHWEST FLOW. ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE IS NOTABLY
VARIED, WITH CANADIAN MEMBERS LARGELY DRY WHILE THE EURO AND
AMERICAN SUITES RANGE FROM A COUPLE HUNDREDTHS OF QPF TO
SEVERAL TENTHS. LATENT NBM IS LARGELY UNCHANGED, WITH 30 TO 40
PERCENT POPS AND 0.05 TO 0.15 INCHES OF QPF PRODUCING AROUND AN
INCH OR LESS OF SNOW FOR THE SOUTHERN THIRD OF MN. ADDITIONAL
CHANCES FOR LIGHT PRECIP CONTINUE THROUGH THE WEEKEND, THOUGH
IMPACT LOOKS LOW AT THIS TIME.
AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z MONDAY/
ISSUED AT 529 AM CST SUN FEB 8 2026
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGHOUT THIS DURATION. MID-LEVEL
CLOUD DECKS EXPECTED THROUGHOUT, WITH CEILINGS OVER CENTRAL-
SOUTHEASTERN MN INTO WESTERN WI TO PERSIST THROUGH AT LEAST
MIDDAY AND LIKELY INTO THE EVENING HOURS. PARTIAL CLEARING THEN
EXPECTED OVERNIGHT THROUGH MONDAY MORNING. GENERALLY SE WINDS
EXPECTED THROUGHOUT, WITH SPEEDS INTO THE 10-13KT RANGE FROM
LATE MORNING THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON THEN SETTLING BACK DOWN TO
UNDER 10KTS TONIGHT.
KMSP...NO ADDITIONAL CONCERNS.
/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/
TUE...VFR. WIND NW 5-10 KTS.
WED...VFR. WIND NW 5-10 KTS BECOMING NE.
THU...MVFR CEILINGS LIKELY. CHANCE -SHSN. WIND SE 5-10 KTS.
MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MN...NONE.
WI...NONE.
DISCUSSION...BED
AVIATION...JPC
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