658
FXUS63 KMPX 041853
AFDMPX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
153 PM CDT FRI SEP 4 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- CHANCES FOR THUNDERSTORMS SATURDAY & SUNDAY MORNING ACROSS
WESTERN MINNESOTA.
- MORE WIDESPREAD RAINFALL POSSIBLE MONDAY INTO TUESDAY
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 130 PM CDT FRI SEP 4 2026
DENSE FOG ACROSS MUCH OF CENTRAL MINNESOTA & WESTERN WISCONSIN
THIS MORNING HAS LIFTED TO A BANK OF STRATUS CLOUDS THAT HAS
BEEN SLOW TO DISSIPATE THIS AFTERNOON. A SHARP CONTRAST IN
TEMPERATURES IS PRESENT ACROSS THE AREA THANKS TO THIS CLOUD
COVER, WITH TEMPERATURES REMAINING IN THE 70S UNDER THE CLOUDS
& ALREADY ROUND 90 DEGREES WHERE IT HAS BEEN SUNNY ALL MORNING.
VERY MUGGY DEWPOINTS IN THE LOW TO MID 70S WILL CREATE HEAT
INDEX VALUES NEAR 100 DEGREES SOUTH OF THE CLOUD COVER FROM THE
SOUTHERN TWIN CITIES METRO THROUGH WESTERN WISCONSIN & SOUTHERN
MINNESOTA. ELSEWHERE IT WILL STILL BE WARM & STICKY, ALTHOUGH
DRIER AIR OFF OF LAKE SUPERIOR IS BEGINNING TO ADVANCE
SOUTHWARDS THROUGH CENTRAL MINNESOTA & NORTHWEST WISCONSIN.
THIS DRIER AIR LOOKS TO REMAIN IN PLACE THROUGH TONIGHT, WHICH
MAY LIMIT WHETHER WE SEE ANOTHER NIGHT OF WIDESPREAD FOG INTO
TOMORROW MORNING. TEMPERATURES WILL BE COOLER TONIGHT AS WELL SO
STILL EXPECTING SOME FOG ACROSS THE AREA, ALTHOUGH IT MAY BE
CONSTRAINED TO MORE RURAL & LOW-LYING AREAS OF CENTRAL MINNESOTA
& WEST-CENTRAL WISCONSIN.
A CLUSTER OF THUNDERSTORMS IS EXPECTED TO FORM OVER THE DAKOTAS
OVERNIGHT, & MOST HIGH-RESILUTION GUIDANCE TRACKS IT THROUGH AT
LEAST FAR-WESTERN MINNESOTA DURING THE MORNING HOURS. RAISED
POPS TOMORROW MORNING WEST OF THE MINNESOTA RIVER VALLEY, &
CAN'T RULE OUT SOME GUSTY WINDS & SMALL HAIL WITH THE
THUNDERSTORMS TOMORROW MORNING. EASTERLY TO NORTHEASTERLY FLOW
LOOKS LIKELY TO HOLD THROUGH SATURDAY, WHICH SHOULD HELP TO
KEEP TEMPERATURES & DEWPOINTS MORE COMFORTABLE THAN THE LAST
TWO DAYS. CLOUD COVER FROM THE WESTERN MINNESOTA STORMS COULD
KEEP TEMPERATURES EVEN LOWER, BUT FOR NOW EXPECT HIGHS IN THE
MID-80S WITH LOWER DEW POINTS IN THE MID 60S.
ADDITIONAL CHANCES FOR THUNDERSTORMS COME SATURDAY NIGHT INTO
MONDAY MORNING, MAINLY ACROSS WESTERN MINNESOTA, WITH A MORE
WIDESPREAD CHANCE COMING MONDAY INTO TUESDAY WHEN A MORE
DEFINED SHORTWAVE PASSES THROUGH THE REGION. THE MOST LIKELY
CHANCES FOR A SOAKING RAIN WILL BE CLOSER TO THE UPPER LEVEL
FORCING ACROSS NORTHERN MINNESOTA, BUT ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE IS AT
LEAST SHOWING MODERATE CHANCES FOR AT LEAST 1" OF RAIN INTO
CENTRAL MINNESOTA & WESTERN WISCONSIN. DRY WEATHER CONTINUES OF
WE MISS OUT ON RAIN CHANCES MONDAY- TUESDAY AS COOLER & DRIER
NORTHWESTERLY FLOW DEVELOPS THROUGH THE REST OF THE WEEK.
TEMPERATURES STILL LOOK TO BE ABOVE-NORMAL HOWEVER, WITH HIGHS
IN THE UPPER 70S TO LOW 80S.
AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SUNDAY/
ISSUED AT 1152 AM CDT FRI SEP 4 2026
THE STUBBORN STRATUS DECK CONTINUES TO SLOWLY ERODE AS WE HEAD
INTO THE AFTERNOON, WITH SATELLITE SHOWING THE THINNING SUCH
THAT WE SHOULD FINALLY SEE IT BECOME MOSTLY SUNNY BY AROUND 20Z
FOR MOST LOCATIONS. ALL SITES SHOULD LIFT TO VFR UNTIL AT LEAST
03-04Z, AT WHICH POINT MORE LOW CLOUDS/FOG BECOME POSSIBLE. ONE
DIFFERENCE BETWEEN THIS MORNING AND THE UPCOMING PERIOD IS THAT
WINDS ARE GENERALLY STRONGER, EXCEPT FOR RNH/EAU, SUCH THAT FOG
SHOULD BE A BIT PATCHIER ALTHOUGH PERIODS OF IFR REMAIN
POSSIBLE. DRIER AIR IS ALSO ADVECTING IN FROM WINDS THAT WILL
FAVOR NORTHERLY, SO WE SHOULD NOT SEE A REPEAT OF TODAY IN THAT
MOST OF THE LOW CLOUDS/FOG SHOULD DISSIPATE BY ROUGHLY 15-16Z.
KMSP...KEPT SOME OF THE STRATUS AROUND UNTIL 20Z BUT REMAINING
VFR, WITH A CHANCE FOR IFR ARRIVING AS EARLY AS 08-09Z WITH MORE
LOW STRATUS/FOG. NOT AS CONFIDENT AS THIS MORNING'S ROUND, BUT
STILL ENOUGH TO MAINTAIN THE TEMPO INHERITED FROM THE 12Z TAF.
WE BECOME VFR THROUGH THE REST OF THE PERIOD AFTER AROUND 16Z
TOMORROW.
/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/
SUN...CHC SHRA/TSRA/MVFR. WIND SE 5-10KTS.
MON...LIKELY SHRA, CHC TSRA/MVFR. WIND SE 10-15KTS.
TUE...LIKELY SHRA, CHC TSRA/MVFR. WIND S 10-15KTS.
MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MN...HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR ANOKA-CARVER-
DAKOTA-HENNEPIN-RAMSEY-SCOTT-WASHINGTON.
WI...NONE.
DISCUSSION...ETA
AVIATION...TDH
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