442
FXUS63 KMPX 232327
AFDMPX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
627 PM CDT FRI OCT 23 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- ONE MORE VERY WARM DAY SATURDAY, THEN TEMPERATURES RETREAT
BACK TO NEAR NORMAL.
- MULTIPLE CHANCES FOR RAIN FROM THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH
WEDNESDAY.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 147 PM CDT FRI OCT 23 2026
A BAND OF SHOWERS FROM WESTERN TO SOUTH CENTRAL MN CONTINUES TO
PROGRESS EASTWARD THIS AFTERNOON AT ABOUT 20 KTS. THERE HAVE
BEEN A FEW ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS AND BRIEF HEAVY DOWNPOURS
EMBEDDED WITHIN THE BAND, ESPECIALLY DURING THE LATE MORNING AND
MIDDAY. INTENSITY WILL CONTINUE WANING AS THE AFTERNOON
PROGRESSES AND CHANCES ARE LOW IT WILL REACH WI. SOUTH WINDS
HAVE BEEN GUSTY TODAY AND TEMPERATURES HAVE ONCE AGAIN REACHED
THE 70S AHEAD OF THE BAND OF RAIN WHERE SUN HAS BEEN PREVALENT.
A COLD FRONT OVER MONTANA TODAY WILL PROPAGATE EAST TONIGHT AND
REACH THE UPPER MIDWEST SATURDAY. A WARM AND SOMEWHAT MOIST AIRMASS
WILL KEEP LOWS QUITE MILD TONIGHT, LIKELY REMAINING IN THE LOW
60S. TEMPERATURES WILL WARM QUICKLY AHEAD OF THE FRONT WHICH IS
EXPECTED TO BE PASSING THROUGH WESTERN MN MID TO LATE MORNING.
HIGHS ACROSS SOUTHERN/EASTERN MN AND WI SHOULD REACH THE MID TO
POSSIBLY UPPER 70S BEFORE TUMBLING BEHIND THE FRONT. ANOTHER
BAND OF SHOWERS WILL DEVELOP ALONG THE FRONT THROUGHOUT THE DAY,
THEN WEAKEN AND SCATTER BY EVENING ACROSS SOUTHERN MN AND WI. A
FEW SHOWERS MAY LINGER THROUGH SUNDAY.
THE FRONT WILL STALL ACROSS THE MID MS VALLEY SUNDAY, THEN LIFT
BACK TO THE NORTH MONDAY AND TUESDAY AS AN UPPER LOW OVER THE
DESERT SOUTHWEST FINALLY EJECTS NORTHEAST ACROSS THE PLAINS.
THIS COMPACT SYSTEM WILL BRING RAIN TO THE CENTRAL PLAINS SUNDAY
NIGHT AND THE UPPER MIDWEST MONDAY INTO EARLY TUESDAY. QPF IS
PRETTY IMPRESSIVE ALONG THE TRACK OF THE LOW FROM NEBRASKA TO
EASTERN SD AND WESTERN MN WHERE AMOUNTS MAY EXCEED 1-1.5
INCHES.
ANOTHER SYSTEM MAY FOLLOW QUICKLY ON THE HEELS OF THE EARLY
WEEK SYSTEM TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY. THERE IS STILL QUITE A
BIT OF MODEL SPREAD AFTER TUESDAY, LEADING TO CONTINUING CHANCES
OF SHOWERS AND LOW CONFIDENCE. RIDGING WILL TRY TO BUILD BACK
LATE WEEK AND TEMPERATURES MAY TREND BACK ABOVE NORMAL FOR
HALLOWEEN WEEKEND.
AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY/
ISSUED AT 622 PM CDT FRI OCT 23 2026
MUCH OF THE 18Z TAF WAS KEPT INTACT AS THE TIMING OF LLWS FOR
THE FIRST 15 HOURS OF THE PERIOD IS STILL LIKELY GIVEN THE FRONT
MOVING IN. EASTERN SITES WILL EXPERIENCE SOME -SHRA EARLY BEFORE
DRYING OUT, WITH MOSTLY DRY CONDITIONS UNTIL THE LAST FEW HOURS
WHEN FURTHER -SHRA IS POSSIBLE. WINDS WILL WEAKEN AND EVENTUALLY
SHIFT TOWARDS 240-270 AND THEN AGAIN TOWARDS 300 BY THE END OF
THE PERIOD WITH GUSTS DROPPING BACK AS THEY TURN WESTERLY. THE
-SHRA COULD PRODUCE SOME BRIEF PERIODS OF MVFR, BUT WE LARGELY
REMAIN VFR ACROSS ALL SITES AS INTENSITY WILL BE RELATIVELY LOW
AND CIGS WILL REMAIN LOW END VFR.
KMSP...WE MAINTAIN A STATUS QUO TAF WITH AN HOUR OR TWO OF -SHRA
POSSIBLE, FOLLOWED BY LLWS. WINDS BEGIN TO SHIFT AFTER 15Z,
FULLY ROTATING TO THE 300-330 DIRECTION AFTER 00Z.
/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/
SUN...VFR, CHC -SHRA/MVFR. WIND N 5KTS.
MON...-RA/MVFR LIKELY, CHC IFR. WIND NE 5-10KTS.
TUE...-SHRA/MVFR. WIND E 5-10KTS.
MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MN...NONE.
WI...NONE.
DISCUSSION...BORGHOFF
AVIATION...TDH
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