540
FXUS63 KMPX 091059
AFDMPX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
559 AM CDT FRI OCT 9 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- NEAR RECORD TEMPERATURES IN THE 80S ON SATURDAY.
- HOT AND WINDY CONDITIONS ON SATURDAY COULD LEAD TO FIRE
WEATHER CONCERNS, ESPECIALLY IN WESTERN MINNESOTA.
- COOLER NEXT WEEK WITH RAIN CHANCES INCREASING THURSDAY.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 136 AM CDT FRI OCT 9 2026
EARLY THIS MORNING STORMS CONTINUE TO OCCUR TO OUR SOUTH ACROSS
IOWA, BUT STORM MOTIONS AND THE OVERALL FORCING DRIVING THESE
STORMS WILL KEEP THEM WELL TO OUR SOUTH. TODAY WILL SEE THE
START OF THE MAIN PUSH OF THE WAA IN THE AFTERNOON/EVENING. THIS
MEANS RIGHT AS THE DIURNAL TEMPERATURES WOULD NORMALLY START TO
FALL THIS WAA WILL COUNTERACT THIS SOMEWHAT. THIS STRONG FLOW IS
TIED TO A LOW MOVING NEAR THE INTERNATIONAL BORDER REGION AROUND
THE AB/SK/MT/ND AREA. THIS IS WHAT GIVES US THE FLOW DRIVING
THIS WAA. WE WILL SEE THE PEAK OF THIS WAA ON SATURDAY WITH 850
MB TEMPERATURES OF 20 TO 25 DEGREES C. THIS VERY WARM AIR ALOFT
WILL LIKELY MAKE SATURDAY START OUT WITH A TEMPERATURE INVERSION
WHICH WILL LIMIT WIND POTENTIAL EARLY. THIS WILL NOT LAST
THOUGH AS THE ATMOSPHERE WARMS DURING THE DAY AND MIXING BECOMES
FAVORED. BY AFTERNOON WIND GUSTS UP AROUND 40 MPH WILL BE
POSSIBLE, MOST LIKELY ALONG THE BUFFALO RIDGE. WITH RESPECT TO
FIRE WEATHER, WINDS ARE A CONCERN AND SO ARE THE NEAR RECORD
HIGH TEMPERATURES. WHAT WILL DECIDE HOW MUCH OF A FIRE RISK WE
GET WILL BE RHS, AS CURRENT DEW POINTS IN THE NBM MAKE THIS LOOK
BORDERLINE. HOWEVER NBM OFTEN DOES NOT DO WELL IN THESE KIND OF
DAYS AND THERE IS A DECENT CHANCE THAT THE HRRR IS CLOSER TO
REALITY AND THIS WOULD SUGGEST WESTERN MINNESOTA FALLING INTO
THE MID TO UPPER 20S FOR RH.
THE WAA CONTINUES INTO SUNDAY WITH ANOTHER MUCH ABOVE NORMAL DAY
EXPECTED. IT WILL BE LATE SUNDAY INTO MONDAY WHEN WE SEE A COLD
FRONT, ASSOCIATED WITH THE LOW NEAR THE INTERNATIONAL BORDER,
MOVES ACROSS THE UPPER MIDWEST AND BRING THIS ABNORMAL WARMTH TO
AN END. THE ACTUAL FRONTAL PASSAGE WON'T TAKE A DAY AND A HALF,
THERE JUST REMAINS SOME SPREAD IN THE TIMING OF THIS PASSAGE IN
GUIDANCE. CURRENTLY ONLY LOW POPS WITH THIS FRONTAL PASSAGE AS
THERE IS LITTLE UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT. EVEN IN THE GUIDANCE THAT
SHOWS RAIN WITH THIS FRONT IT IS ONLY A FEW HUNDREDTHS DUE THIS
WEAKER FORCING SETUP AND QUESTIONABLE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE. AFTER
A WEEKEND WITH HIGHS IN THE 80S THE POST-FRONTAL AIR MASS WILL
SUPPORT NEAR NORMAL HIGHS IN THE UPPER 50S TO MID 60S. ANOTHER
FRONTAL PASSAGE WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY WILL GIVE US OUR
BEST CHANCE FOR RAIN OVER THE NEXT WEEK AND ANOTHER DROP IN
TEMPERATURES. UNLIKE THE EARLY WEEK FRONTAL PASSAGE THIS ONE HAS
AMPLE UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT WITH A RATHER PRONOUNCED TROUGH
MOVING ACROSS CONUS. THIS SHOWS MUCH STRONGER SUPPORT IN GLOBAL
ENSEMBLES, COMPARED TO MONDAY, WITH A STRONG SIGNAL. THERE ARE
EVEN MEMBERS WITH A MORE SOAKING RAIN OF A HALF INCH OR MORE.
CURRENTLY THE STRONGER SIGNAL REMAINS TO OUR NORTHWEST, BUT SOME
ADDITIONAL SHIFTS IN TRACK AT THIS RANGE IS POSSIBLE. BEHIND
THIS FRONT, HIGH WILL LIKELY ONLY BE IN THE LOWER TO MID 50S ON
FRIDAY.
AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY/
ISSUED AT 543 AM CDT FRI OCT 9 2026
MID-LEVEL CLOUDS OVER CENTRAL MN EARLY THIS MORNING WILL
CONTINUE SOUTHEAST, GIVING AWAY TO HIGH CLOUDS BY LATE MORNING.
AS STATED IN THE PREVIOUS FORECAST, VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
THE ENTIRE PERIOD. HOWEVER, NORTHEASTWARD LIFTING WARM FRONT
LOOKS TO PRODUCE A STRATOCUMULUS FIELD BETWEEN 3500-5000 FEET
THIS AFTERNOON INTO THIS EVENING. THIS IS ESPECIALLY TRUE OVER
SOUTHEASTERN MN AND WESTERN WI. THESE CLOUDS WILL CLEAR
DURING FRIDAY NIGHT. SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS WILL GUST TO NEAR 20
KNOTS THIS AFTERNOON WITH STRONGEST GUSTS OCCURRING AT AXN. WIND
SPEEDS WILL DECREASE SLIGHTLY INTO FRIDAY NIGHT BUT THEN WILL
INCREASE BY SATURDAY MORNING AS THE SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT
STRENGTHENS. SOUTH-SOUTHWESTERLY LLWS OF 40-45 KNOTS IS EXPECTED
EARLY SATURDAY MORNING ACROSS MN AS A LLJ MOVES OVERHEAD.
KMSP...VFR EXPECTED THRU THE PERIOD WITH A BROKEN STRATOCUMULUS
FIELD DEVELOPING NEAR 4000 FEET NEAR 22Z THIS AFTERNOON. THESE
CLOUDS CLEAR THIS EVENING. SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL GUST TO 25-30
KNOTS DURING LATE SATURDAY MORNING.
/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/
SAT...VFR. WIND S 15-25G35KTS.
SUN...VFR. WIND S 10-15G25KTS.
MON...MAINLY VFR. CHC P.M. -SHRA/MVFR. WIND NNW 10G20KTS.
MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MN...NONE.
WI...NONE.
DISCUSSION...NDC
AVIATION...CTG
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