285
FXUS63 KMPX 042304
AFDMPX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
604 PM CDT TUE AUG 4 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- QUIET AND DRY PERIOD THROUGH THE REST OF THE WEEK, NEXT CHANCE
FOR ISOLATED SHOWERS AND STORMS FRIDAY NIGHT.
- MORE CHANCES FOR ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS OVER
NEXT WEEKEND AND INTO NEXT WEEK.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 151 PM CDT TUE AUG 4 2026
SATELLITE IMAGERY THIS AFTERNOON SHOWCASES THE COLD FRONT THAT
BROUGHT OUR OVERNIGHT SHOWERS MOVING THROUGH WI WITH A FIELD OF
CUMULUS ACROSS CENTRAL AND NORTHERN MINNESOTA, WITH AN AREA
BETWEEN THE FRONT AND CUMULUS SHOWCASING SOME WISPY SMOKE FROM
WILDFIRES OVER THE WESTERN ROCKIES. LITTLE OF THIS SMOKE IS
EXPECTED TO REACH THE SURFACE BUT IT COULD PRODUCE ENOUGH OF A
SKY MASK TO KNOCK HIGH TEMPERATURES DOWN BY A DEGREE OR TWO THIS
AFTERNOON, WITH COMFORTABLE LOW TO MID 70S EXPECTED. LOW
TEMPERATURES TONIGHT WILL LIKEWISE BE COMFORTABLE IN THE LOW 50S
OUTSIDE OF THE URBAN HEAT ISLAND, WITH UPPER 50S WITHIN THE
TWIN CITIES. THE UPPER LEVEL SMOKE IS NOT EXPECTED TO MAKE IT TO
THE SURFACE, SO YOU SHOULD BE SAFE TO OPEN THE WINDOWS AND GET
SOME FRESH AIR INTO YOUR HOME SHOULD YOU CHOOSE TO DO SO.
TOMORROW LOOKS TO BE A BIT WARMER THAN TODAY WITH NEAR 80 HIGH
TEMPERATURES AND MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES, WITH THE BREEZIEST WINDS
THIS WEEK ARRIVING ON THURSDAY WITH SOME FREQUENT GUSTS AROUND
20MPH OUT OF THE SOUTH AHEAD OF OUR NEXT COLD FRONT DROPPING
DOWN LATER IN THE DAY ON FRIDAY.
QUIET WEATHER IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TODAY AND THROUGH THURSDAY
UNTIL OUR NEXT PRECIPITATION CHANCES ARRIVE FRIDAY
EVENING/NIGHT. ENSEMBLES CONTINUE TO SHOW VERY DIFFERENT IDEAS
ON UPCOMING TEMPERATURES WITH THE GEFS WANTING A PUSH BACK INTO
THE LOW 90S BY FRIDAY AND INTO THE WEEKEND WITH THE MUCH COOLER
EPS PEAKING IN THE MID 80S. THIS ALSO SHOWS WITHIN THE LONGER
RANGE FORECAST WITH SOME SPORADIC STORM CHANCES ARRIVING THIS
WEEKEND WITH FAIRLY LOW CONFIDENCE GIVEN THE COMPETING
SOLUTIONS. THE WARMER GEFS WOULD FAVOR MORE INSTABILITY AND WITH
ANY SORT OF FORCING WOULD PROMOTE SOME STRONGER STORMS, HOWEVER
COULD ALSO RESULT IN MORE CAPPING IF THE LOWER-MID LEVELS HEAT
UP MORE. SPEAKING OF FORCING, A BROAD FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL SLOW
MOVE FROM NORTH TO SOUTH ACROSS MINNESOTA BEGINNING FRIDAY
NIGHT AND LASTING INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK, WITH RELATIVELY WEAK
FORCING GIVEN THE LACK OF A STRONG SURFACE LOW AND WEAK UPPER
LEVEL REINFORCEMENT. WE ARE CERTAINLY SHOWCASING THE
SOUTHWESTERN RETREAT OF THE HEAT DOME IN THIS SITUATION, WITH
OUR UPPER LEVEL FLOW TURNING MORE NORTHWESTERLY CAUSING OUR
UPSTREAM FLOW TO COME FROM THE PAC NW INSTEAD OF TO THE SOUTH,
LIMITING OUR MOISTURE AND ALSO INTRODUCING A LIKELIHOOD OF SOME
UPPER LEVEL SMOKE HELPING TO KNOCK DOWN TEMPERATURES. OUR
EXPECTATION WOULD BE TO SEE TEMPERATURES SETTLE CLOSER TO THE
LOW 80S AS WE HEAD INTO MID AUGUST, WHICH WOULD BE AROUND OUR
AVERAGE HIGH TEMPERATURE FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR IF SLIGHTLY ABOVE
NORMAL.
AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY/
ISSUED AT 559 PM CDT TUE AUG 4 2026
VFR CONDITIONS CONTINUE THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH MAINLY MID-HIGH
LEVEL CLOUDS OUTSIDE OF THE FEW-SCT DIURNAL CU AROUND 4-5K
FEET EARLY THIS EVENING. WINDS BECOME LIGHT AND VARIABLE
OVERNIGHT, THEN INCREASE TO AROUND 5-10 KTS OUT OF THE WSW BY
TOMORROW AFTERNOON.
KMSP...NO ADDITIONAL CONCERNS.
/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/
THU...VFR. WIND SW 5-10G20KTS.
FRI...VFR. WIND SW 5-10G20KTS.
SAT...VFR. WIND S 5-10KTS.
MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MN...NONE.
WI...NONE.
DISCUSSION...TDH
AVIATION...BED
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