746
FXUS63 KMPX 271058
AFDMPX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
558 AM CDT THU AUG 27 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- CALM WEATHER TODAY THROUGH MUCH OF THE DAY TOMORROW.
- A MORE ACTIVE PERIOD STARTS FRIDAY NIGHT AND CONTINUES INTO
NEXT WEEK.
- TEMPERATURES GENERALLY ABOVE NORMAL, WITH HIGHS IN THE 80S,
OVER THE NEXT WEEK.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 250 AM CDT THU AUG 27 2026
TODAY AND TOMORROW... HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN OVERHEAD TODAY
AND INTO THE DAYTIME TOMORROW. THIS WILL KEEP SKIES CLEAR TO
MOSTLY CLEAR WITH LIGHT WINDS. THE MAIN CHANCE FOR CLOUDS TODAY
WILL BE DIURNAL CUMULUS IN THE AFTERNOON INTO EARLY EVENING.
LITTLE CHANGE IN THE AIRMASS, SO TEMPERATURES TODAY SHOULD BE
SIMILAR TO YESTERDAY. TOMORROW LOOKS TO BE SLIGHTLY WARMER AS
850 MB WINDS SHIFT TO THE SOUTHWEST PROVIDING SOME SLIGHT WAA.
THE OTHER SIDE OF THIS HIGH PRESSURE WILL ALLOW FOR PATCHY FOG
BOTH THIS MORNING AND TOMORROW MORNING WITH THE BEST CHANCES IN
THE USUAL LOW LYING AREAS AND NEAR BODIES OF WATER.
TOMORROW NIGHT INTO THE WEEKEND... FRIDAY NIGHT LOOKS TO BE THE
START OF A MORE ACTIVE PERIOD AS WE LOOK TO HAVE MULTIPLE
SHORTWAVES MOVE THROUGH THE UPPER MIDWEST. MULTIPLE CHANCES FOR
RAIN SOUNDS LIKE WHAT WE NEED AFTER HOW DRY IT HAS BEEN RIGHT?
UNFORTUNATELY THIS DOES STILL LOOKS TO BE THE TYPICAL HIT AND
MISS CONVECTIVE DRIVEN KIND OF RAIN RATHER THAN A LARGE SCALE
SYNOPTIC RAIN EVENT LIKE WE HAD IN LATE JULY. THE FORECAST
SOUNDINGS CURRENTLY LOOK LIKE THEY COULD SUPPORT SOME
THUNDERSTORMS, BUT INSTABILITY IS LIGHT AND SKINNY. SO STRONG TO
SEVERE STORMS DO NOT APPEAR LIKELY AT THIS TIME. THIS IS
REFLECTED IN THE SPC OUTLOOK WHICH HAS US IN GENERAL THUNDER FOR
BOTH FRIDAY AND SATURDAY. OVERALL THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY
DOES LOOK LIKE THE STORMIER HALF OF THE WEEKEND BASED ON
ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE AS THERE IS MUCH GREATER SPREAD FOR SUNDAY. HEAT
ALSO DOES LOOK TO RAMP UP ON SUNDAY WITH HIGHS MORE LIKELY IN
THE MID TO UPPER 80S. SO IF YOU HAVE OUTDOOR PLANS FOR THIS
UPCOMING LATE SUMMER WEEKEND MAKE SURE TO HAVE A WAY TO KEEP AN
EYE ON THE WEATHER DUE TO THE THUNDERSTORM CHANCES, ESPECIALLY
ON SATURDAY.
NEXT WEEK... THE MORE PROGRESSIVE UPPER LEVEL PATTERN CONTINUES
INTO NEXT WEEK WITH ADDITIONAL SHORTWAVES EXPECTED. THERE IS
AGREEMENT BETWEEN THE DETERMINISTIC MODELS IN THIS BROAD PATTERN,
BUT WHEN WE GET TO SPECIFICS THERE IS MUCH MORE SPREAD. IN THE
ENSEMBLES FOR THE GLOBAL MODEL SYSTEMS, THE QPF FORECAST IS
WIDELY SCATTERED THROUGHOUT THE WEEK. THIS HAS LEFT NBM WITH
SCATTERED 30 OR LOWER POPS ALMOST EVERY DAY. SO SAFE TO SAY, WE
WILL NEED TO GET CLOSER TO NEXT WEEK BEFORE WE HAVE A BETTER
IDEA OF WHICH DAYS START TO SEE MORE CLUSTERING AMONG ENSEMBLE
MEMBERSHIP. ON A TEMPERATURE FRONT WE HAVE THE JET STREAM ON
TOP OF OR NORTH OF US OVER THIS PERIOD. THIS WILL HELP TO KEEP
US IN WARMER FLOW AND KEEP HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE 80S. THIS
IS NOTABLE AS NORMAL HIGH TEMPERATURES START THE WEEK IN THE THE
UPPER 70S AND FALL TO THE MID 70S BY LABOR DAY WEEKEND.
AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY/
ISSUED AT 558 AM CDT THU AUG 27 2026
SOME MVFR TO IFR FOG THIS MORNING IN PARTS OF REGION, MAINLY IN
THE COMMON SPOTS IN LOWER LYING AREAS AND NEAR BODIES OF WATER.
FOR TERMINALS THIS HAS MAINLY IMPACTED RNH THIS MORNING. AS THE
SUN RISES AND TEMPERATURES START TO RISE THIS FOG WILL LIFT. THE
REST OF THE DAY WILL BE VFR WITH LIGHT NORTHERLY/NORTHWESTERLY
WINDS. TOMORROW NIGHT WILL BE VERY SIMILAR WITH MORE FOG CHANCES
POSSIBLE.
KMSP...NO ADDITIONAL CONCERNS.
/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/
FRI PM...VFR. CHC -TSRA LATE NIGHT. WIND SW 5-10 KTS.
SAT...VFR. CHC AM -TSRA. WIND S 10-15G20 KTS.
SUN...VFR. CHC EVENING/NIGHT -TSRA. WIND S 10-15 KTS.
MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MN...NONE.
WI...NONE.
DISCUSSION...NDC
AVIATION...NDC
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