195
FXUS63 KMPX 261835
AFDMPX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
135 PM CDT SUN JUL 26 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- HEAT INDICES ARE ON TRACK TO REACH 105-110 THROUGH THIS
AFTERNOON. AN EXTREME HEAT WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT.
- SEVERE STORM CHANCES ARE HIGHEST THIS EVENING ACROSS PORTIONS
OF WESTERN WISCONSIN, BUT THERE IS STILL SOME UNCERTAINTY IN
HOW FAR WEST STORMS DEVELOP. WISCONSIN REMAINS IN A SEVERE
RISK LEVEL 3/5 WITH THE REMAINDER OF MINNESOTA AT A 2/5.
- HEAT CONTINUES WITH HIGHS IN THE LOW 90S THROUGH MID WEEK, BUT
DEW POINTS ARE EXPECTED TO FALL INTO THE 60S.
- STORM CHANCES RETURN LATE IN THE FORECAST PERIOD
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 1158 AM CDT SUN JUL 26 2026
BEFORE 11AM, HEAT INDICES IN SOUTHEASTERN MINNESOTA HAVE ALREADY
CLIMBED INTO THE UPPER 90S THANKS TO DEW POINTS PUSHING 80.
FURTHER WEST, IT'S QUITE A BIT COOLER FOLLOWING LAST NIGHT'S
THUNDERSTORMS. SOME CLOUD COVER IS ALSO PLAYING INTO THIS, BUT
CLOUDS WILL CONTINUE TO CLEAR AND ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO WARM
QUICKLY INTO THE MID TO UPPER 90S BY EARLY AFTERNOON. WE'LL HAVE
NO TROUBLE SEEING APPARENT TEMPERATURES TOP 100 AREA WIDE WITH
READINGS NEAR OR ABOVE 110 POSSIBLE ACROSS SOUTHERN MINNESOTA.
THESE TEMPERATURES AND DEW POINTS WILL CONTRIBUTE TO A VERY
UNSTABLE AIRMASS WITH CAPE VALUES TOPPING 3000 J/KG. HOWEVER,
MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW 700MB TEMPS SOMEWHERE AROUND 13 TO 14C
WHICH WOULD HELP TO LIMIT CONVECTION. THE MAIN FOCUS FOR SEVERE
WEATHER LATER TODAY WILL LIKELY LIE ACROSS WISCONSIN, WHERE
DAMAGING WINDS AND LARGE HAIL WILL BE THE PRIMARY THREAT. AS
MENTIONED IN THE PREVIOUS DISCUSSION, IF 700MB TEMPS DO END UP
BEING A DEGREE OR TWO COOLER, WE COULD SEE THINGS EVOLVE FURTHER
WEST ACROSS MINNESOTA. CAMS HAVE PRETTY CONSISTENTLY BEEN
SHOWING STORMS FIRING IN THE ARROWHEAD AND TRACKING INTO
NORTHERN WISCONSIN AS AN MCS THIS EVENING, SO CONFIDENCE REMAINS
HIGHEST FOR OUR EASTERNMOST WISCONSIN COUNTIES. SPC DID
INTRODUCE A LARGE ENHANCED RISK (LEVEL 3/5) THAT INCLUDES PRETTY
MUCH ALL OF WISCONSIN WITH THE SLIGHT RISK AREA STILL EXTENDING
BACK INTO WESTERN MINNESOTA. DID A MORNING POP UPDATE TO RAISE
PRECIP CHANCES (10-20%) CWA WIDE TO KEEP MESSAGING WITH SPC MORE
CONSISTENT.
HEADING INTO MONDAY, HIGHS WILL BE IN THE 90S AGAIN, BUT WE'LL
SEE WINDS SWITCH AROUND TO THE NORTHWEST, ALLOWING SOME DRIER
AIR TO WORK INTO THE REGION. THIS WILL HELP TAMP DOWN HEAT
INDICES A LITTLE, BUT READINGS IN THE MID TO UPPER 90S ARE STILL
POSSIBLE ACROSS OUR SOUTH. WENT AHEAD AND EXPANDED THE HEAT
ADVISORY FROM JUST THE TWIN CITIES METRO TO INCLUDE SOUTHERN
MINNESOTA AND PORTIONS OF WESTERN WISCONSIN. BY WEDNESDAY, THE
AXIS OF THE 500MB RIDGE WILL EXTEND UP THROUGH THE DAKOTAS. A
SHORTWAVE ALONG THE TOP OF THIS RIDGE WILL MOVE ACROSS THE
EASTERN DAKOTAS/MINNESOTA SOMETIME LATE WEDNESDAY/EARLY
THURSDAY, WHICH BRINGS IN OUR NEXT ROUND OF PRECIP CHANCES. THE
TIMING OF THIS FEATURE WILL IMPACT WHETHER OR NOT WE SEE STRONG
TO SEVERE STORMS ON THURSDAY. LOOKING AHEAD, SOME LOW PRECIP
CHANCES REMAIN IN PLACE WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 80S TO START THE
MONTH OF AUGUST.
AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z TUESDAY/
ISSUED AT 1254 PM CDT SUN JUL 26 2026
VFR AT ALL SITES WITH PASSING HIGH CLOUDS AT THE START, WHILE
THE WI TAF SITES HAVE THE REMNANTS OF LOW STRATUS CONTINUING TO
DISSIPATE. MAIN ISSUE WILL BE THE LOCATION/TIMING OF CONVECTION.
GENERALLY, THE IDEA STILL HOLDS OF HAVING CONVECTIVE INITIATION
OVER NORTHERN MN WHICH WILL DRIVE SE INTO WI, AND ESSENTIALLY
MISSING ALL OF OUR MN TAF SITES. THE TIMING LOOKS TO BE MID-TO-
LATE EVENING, WITH THE BEST CHANCES AT OUR WI TAF SITES SO HAVE
MAINTAINED PROB30 MENTION FOR THOSE 2 TAFS. ONCE PAST THIS
EVENING, MAINLY HIGH CLOUDS PREVAIL TONIGHT THROUGH TOMORROW AS
WINDS SHIFT FROM SE-SW TO NW WITH THE PASSAGE OF A LOW PRESSURE
CENTER THROUGH THE UPPER MIDWEST. SPEEDS MAINLY IN THE 5-10KT
RANGE, THOUGH SOME GUSTINESS IS POSSIBLE MONDAY AFTERNOON.
KMSP...THE BEST TIMING WINDOW FOR ANY POTENTIAL CONVECTION
MOVING ACROSS MSP LOOKS TO BE 02Z-05Z, BUT THE IDEA CONTINUES TO
BE THAT CONVECTION WILL REMAIN TO THE N AND E OF MSP. THEREFORE,
HAVE MAINTAINED A DRY TAF WITH ONLY A MINOR INCREASE IN MID-
LEVEL CLOUDS THIS EVENING.
/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/
TUE...VFR. WIND VARIABLE AROUND 5 KTS.
WED...VFR. WIND S 5-10 KTS.
THU...INCREASING CLOUDS. CHC P.M. MVFR/TSRA. WIND SSW 5-10 KTS.
MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MN...EXTREME HEAT WARNING UNTIL 9 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR ANOKA-
BENTON-BLUE EARTH-BROWN-CARVER-CHIPPEWA-CHISAGO-DAKOTA-
DOUGLAS-FARIBAULT-FREEBORN-GOODHUE-HENNEPIN-ISANTI-
KANABEC-KANDIYOHI-LAC QUI PARLE-LE SUEUR-MARTIN-MCLEOD-
MEEKER-MILLE LACS-MORRISON-NICOLLET-POPE-RAMSEY-REDWOOD-
RENVILLE-RICE-SCOTT-SHERBURNE-SIBLEY-STEARNS-STEELE-
STEVENS-SWIFT-TODD-WASECA-WASHINGTON-WATONWAN-WRIGHT-
YELLOW MEDICINE.
HEAT ADVISORY FROM 9 PM THIS EVENING TO 8 PM CDT MONDAY FOR
ANOKA-BLUE EARTH-BROWN-CARVER-DAKOTA-FARIBAULT-FREEBORN-
GOODHUE-HENNEPIN-LE SUEUR-MARTIN-NICOLLET-RAMSEY-RICE-
SCOTT-SIBLEY-STEELE-WASECA-WASHINGTON-WATONWAN.
WI...EXTREME HEAT WARNING UNTIL 9 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR BARRON-
CHIPPEWA-DUNN-EAU CLAIRE-PEPIN-PIERCE-POLK-RUSK-ST. CROIX.
HEAT ADVISORY FROM 9 PM THIS EVENING TO 8 PM CDT MONDAY FOR
DUNN-EAU CLAIRE-PEPIN-PIERCE-ST. CROIX.
DISCUSSION...DYE
AVIATION...JPC
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