904
FXUS63 KMPX 031052
AFDMPX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
552 AM CDT WED JUN 3 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- SLIGHT RISK (LEVEL 2 OF 5) OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THIS
EVENING FOR WESTERN MN WITH THE PRIMARY THREAT OF SEVERE WINDS.
- CONDITIONAL THREAT OF STORMS THURSDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING IS
DEPENDENT ON WEDNESDAY NIGHT STORMS. LARGE HAIL AND SEVERE
WINDS WOULD BE THE MAIN RISKS.
- STORMS MAY LINGER INTO FRIDAY, THOUGH CONFIDENCE ON OVERALL
COVERAGE IS LOW AND DEPENDS ON HOW WEDNESDAY TO THURSDAY PLAYS
OUT.
- TEMPERATURES REMAIN ABOVE NORMAL THIS WEEK, AND WARM THIS
WEEKEND, WITH MID TO UPPER 80S ON SUNDAY, LASTING INTO NEXT
WEEK.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 309 AM CDT WED JUN 3 2026
IT'S A QUIET START TO THE DAY WITH TEMPERATURES GENERALLY AROUND
55 TO 65 DEGREES AND LIGHT WINDS OUT OF THE SOUTHEAST. SOME MID-
HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS ARE STREAMING ACROSS THE REGION, BUT REALLY
THE MAIN SHOW IS LOOMING OFF TO OUR WEST ACROSS THE DAKOTAS. A
DYING COMPLEX OF STORMS SITS ALONG A SURFACE BOUNDARY, WHICH
WILL BEGIN TO TAKE SHAPE TODAY AS AN UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE KICKS
OUT OF THE CANADIAN ROCKIES. A SURFACE LOW WILL DEEPEN AND
TRACK EASTWARD JUST NORTH OF THE US/CANADA BORDER. BOTH HI-RES
AND GLOBAL ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE SUPPORT SEVERAL ROUNDS OF STORMS
ACROSS THE UPPER MIDWEST, STARTING WEDNESDAY EVENING AND LASTING
THROUGH FRIDAY. ISOLATED INSTANCES OF SEVERE WEATHER AND HEAVY
RAINFALL WILL BE THE MAIN PLAYERS, SO LET'S BREAK IT DOWN.
TONIGHT...STORMS WILL REDEVELOP OVER THE DAKOTAS DURING THE
AFTERNOON, INITIALLY POSING A TORNADO THREAT WITH ANY DISCRETE
STORMS THAT FORM. A TRANSITION TO A LINEAR MODE IS EXPECTED AS
THE FRONT MOVES EAST TOWARDS WESTERN MINNESOTA DURING THE
EVENING, AT WHICH POINT THE MAIN CONCERN WILL BECOME A WIND
THREAT. THE LLJ WILL INCREASE TO AROUND 35-40KTS, AND A ZONE OF
INCREASED INSTABILITY WILL BUILD AHEAD OF A DEVELOPING MCS. IT
IS LIKELY THAT WE SEE THIS AREA OF STORMS RIDE THE NOSE OF THE
UNSTABLE AIRMASS AND DIVE SOUTH. THE OVERALL TREND IN THE CAMS
SUPPORTS THIS IDEA, WITH BOTH THE HRRR AND RRFS SUGGESTING A
DECAYING MCS MOVES INTO WESTERN MN AND CUTS SOUTHEAST TOWARDS
THE MN/IA STATE LINE. ISOLATED TO SCATTERED 58+ MPH WINDS ARE
MOST LIKELY IN EXTREME WESTERN MN BEFORE THE MCS HAS ENOUGH TIME
TO WEAKEN. AT THE SAME TIME, SOME SHOWERS AND WEAKER STORMS MAY
PERSIST ALONG THE BOUNDARY NORTH OF THE MCS. MODELS LIKE THE
NAMNEST AND DETERMINISTIC EURO WOULD SAY THAT ANY EASTWARD
MOVING STORMS MAY CHOKE OFF BEFORE EVEN REACHING A LINE FROM ST
CLOUD TO MANKATO. WE CONTINUE TO LEAN ON THE SIDE OF THE HRRR
AND RRFS, THOUGH HAVE TAKEN INTO ACCOUNT THIS SCENARIO WHERE
RAIN ENDS UP SPLITTING BEFORE IT REACHES EASTERN MINNESOTA AND
WESTERN WISCONSIN. AS A RESULT, POPS HAVE DECREASED THURSDAY
MORNING TO BE CAPPED AROUND 20-40%.
THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...THE POSITION OF THE FRONT WILL PLAY A
LARGE ROLE FOR OUR STORM THREAT THE NEXT TWO DAYS. BY THURSDAY
AFTERNOON, WE SHOULD START TO SEE IT PUSH EAST THROUGH MINNESOTA
AND BECOME MORE WSW TO ENE ORIENTATED (I.E. MORE FLATTENED
OUT). THERE IS STILL QUITE A BIT OF UNCERTAINTY WITH THURSDAY'S
RISK FOR SEVERE STORMS (AND STORMS IN GENERAL) AS IT WILL BE
HEAVILY IMPACTED BY THE OVERNIGHT PRECIPITATION. IT WON'T BE
UNTIL TOMORROW NIGHT FOR WHEN WE WILL HAVE HIGHER CONFIDENCE IN
THE EXACT SETUP. REGARDLESS, WE'LL EXPECT TO HAVE A FEW HOURS OF
DAYTIME HEATING WHICH WOULD ALLOW FOR DESTABILIZATION IN TANDEM
WITH DEEP LAYER SHEAR AROUND 35-50KTS. ANY STORMS THAT DEVELOP
ALONG THAT BOUNDARY WOULD HAVE THE CAPABILITY OF PRODUCING LARGE
HAIL AND SEVERE WINDS THROUGH THE EVENING. ONE WILD CARD THAT
MAY THROUGH A WRENCH IN ALL OF THAT IS THE DEVELOPMENT
CONVECTION TO THE SOUTH ACROSS IOWA AND NEBRASKA. BOTH THE 00Z
RUNS OF THE RRFS AND NAMNEST STRUGGLE TO DEVELOP ANY STORMS OVER
MINNESOTA AND WESTERN WISCONSIN THURSDAY. THE 24 HOUR QPF OF
MOSTLY 0.00" IS ALMOST SHOCKING TO SEE GIVEN THE WAY OUR
FORECAST HAS LOOKED UP TO THIS POINT, BUT THESE MODELS DEPICT
OUR MOISTURE FLOW BEING CUTOFF AND FAVORING IOWA FOR THE
GREATEST QPF. MODELS LIKE THE 06Z HRRR STILL SHOW PLENTY OF
STORMS ACROSS OUR REGION, THOUGH IT RELIES ON WEAKER CONVECTION
TO THE SOUTH. THERE ARE MANY MOVING PARTS TO THURSDAY'S
FORECAST, BUT THE CONDITIONAL MARGINAL RISK TIED TO THE SPC DAY
2 OUTLOOK IS REASONABLE GIVEN THE SPREAD OF HI-RES SOLUTIONS.
NOW IF THURSDAY IS UNCERTAIN, DOUBLE THAT FOR FRIDAY. DEPENDING
ON HOW THURSDAY PLAYS OUT, WE COULD HAVE SCATTERED STORMS
ONGOING DURING THE MORNING ACROSS THE DAKOTAS AND WESTERN
MINNESOTA BEFORE THE FRONT FINALLY EXITS SOUTHEAST. ANY
REDEVELOPMENT WILL LIKELY FAVOR AREAS EAST OF A LINE STRETCHING
FROM ALBERT LEA, MN UP TOWARDS EAU CLAIRE, WI. FAVORABLE SHEAR
AND MODERATE INSTABILITY WOULD STILL PROVIDE AN ENVIRONMENT FOR
STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS, AND THIS IS HIGHLIGHTED BY THE 0730Z
SPC DAY 3 OUTLOOK. AGAIN, THE RRFS AND NAMNEST MODELS WOULD SAY
THAT WE MAY STAY MOSTLY DRY ON FRIDAY WITH CONVECTION BEING TIED
TO THE SYNOPTIC FRONT SOUTH AND EAST OF US.
SATURDAY INTO NEXT WEEK...RIDGING WILL BEGIN TO BUILD IN OVER
THE NORTHERN PLAINS AND SPREAD EAST. THIS SHOULD MAKE FOR A
MOSTLY DRY AND WARMER WEEKEND. ANY THREAT FOR STORMS WOULD MOST
LIKELY COME IN THE AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING AND ON AN ISOLATED
BASIS. EARLY NEXT WEEK, A SURGE OF MOISTURE IS EXPECTED TO LIFT
NORTH AHEAD OF AN UPPER LEVEL WAVE EMBEDDED IN THE SOUTHWEST
FLOW. THIS WILL BRING ADDITIONAL THUNDERSTORM CHANCES FOR NEXT
WEEK.
AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z THURSDAY/
ISSUED AT 537 AM CDT WED JUN 3 2026
VFR INTO THIS EVENING WITH ONLY PASSING HIGH CLOUDS. AS A
FRONTAL BOUNDARY SLOWLY ARRIVES FROM THE DAKOTAS TONIGHT,
CHANCES FOR SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS STEADILY INCREASES, MAINLY
AFTER 00Z THU. HAVE INTRODUCED -RA MENTION DURING THE EARLY
MORNING HOURS FOR THE MN TAFS WITH THE MAIN WINDOW FOR PRECIP IN
THE ROUGHLY 06Z-10Z TIMEFRAME, BUT COULD BE AN HOUR OR TWO
EARLIER OR LATER DEPENDING ON THE SITE. CONFIDENCE IS TOO LOW TO
ADD IN CB/TS MENTION AT ANY SITE SO HAVE OMITTED ITS MENTION BUT
IT IS STILL POSSIBLE GIVEN THE CONVECTIVE TRENDS (SEE OUR MAIN
AFD AND SPC SWODY1 DISCUSSIONS). WINDS TO REMAIN GENERALLY
SOUTHERLY THROUGHOUT, WITH SPEEDS BECOMING BREEZY/GUSTY THIS
AFTERNOON INTO THIS EVENING.
KMSP...VFR INTO THIS EVENING, THEN WITH CHANCES FOR PRECIP
INCREASING THIS EVENING, HAVE OPTED TO INCLUDE A TEMPO AT THIS
POINT FOR SHOWERS IN THE EARLY MORNING HOURS. CONFIDENCE TOO
LOW TO INTRODUCE CB/TS BUT CERTAINLY CANNOT RULE OUT THE
POTENTIAL.
/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/
FRI...-RA LIKELY. CHC TSRA/MVFR. WIND SW 5-10 KTS BECOMING NW.
SAT...VFR. WIND NW 5-10 KTS BECOMING NE.
SUN...VFR. WIND WIND SE 10 KTS.
MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MN...NONE.
WI...NONE.
DISCUSSION...BED
AVIATION...JPC
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