410
FXUS63 KMPX 271129
AFDMPX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
529 AM CST FRI FEB 27 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- SNOW SATURDAY MORNING SOUTH OF I-94 WITH THE HEAVIEST SNOW
ACROSS SOUTHERN MINNESOTA, WHERE A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IS
IN EFFECT.
- ANOTHER WARM DAY TODAY BEFORE A MUCH COLDER WEEKEND, THEN
WARMING AGAIN NEXT WEEK.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 300 AM CST FRI FEB 27 2026
TODAY AND TOMORROW... ONE MORE WARMER DAY TODAY BEFORE A DRY COLD
FRONTAL PASSAGE BRINGS THIS WARMUP TO AN END. INITIAL CONTINUED
WARM AIR ADVECTION WILL HELP FRIDAY GET UP TO TEMPERATURES
AROUND WHAT WE SAW YESTERDAY. AS THE COLD AIR STARTS TO ADVECT
IN BEHIND THE COLD FRONT COOLING TEMPERATURES IN THE LOWER
ATMOSPHERE WILL ALLOW GREATER MIXING TO OCCUR AND GUSTY WINDS
ARE EXPECTED. THIS COLD AIR ADVECTION WILL CONTINUE INTO THE
OVERNIGHT WITH LOWS MUCH COLDER IN THE 8 TO 18 RANGE (CENTRAL
MN TO SOUTHERN MN). THESE COOLER TEMPERATURES WILL BE KEY TO THE
NEXT ROUND OF SNOW MOVING IN ON SATURDAY MORNING. WITH SUPPORT
FROM A JET STREAK ALOFT TO PROVIDE SOME BROAD FORCING SNOW IS
EXPECTED GENERALLY TO THE SOUTH OF I-94. WHAT STANDS OUT IN THIS
FORECAST ARE THE POSSIBLE SNOW RATIOS. WITH MUCH OF THE DGZ
WELL SATURATED OVER A SIGNIFICANT DEPTH SNOW RATIOS COULD EASILY
TOP 20:1 DUE TO FAVORABLE DENDRITIC GROWTH. WHAT IS CHALLENGING
ABOUT THIS EVENT THOUGH, IS AN ALMOST BIMODAL SPLIT IN THE
MODEL GUIDANCE. THERE IS ONE VERSION KEEPING THE MAIN SNOW BAND
MORE ALONG THE MINNESOTA/IOWA BORDER AND ANOTHER TAKING IT
FARTHER NORTH FROM BETWEEN MANKATO AND THE SOUTHERN TWIN CITIES
METRO. THE AREA THAT SEEMS MOST LIKELY IS BETWEEN THESE TWO IN
AND AROUND THE MANKATO AREA AND TO THE SOUTHEAST. DUE TO THIS
AREA HAVING HIGHER CONFIDENCE, IN THESE HEAVIER SNOW RATES
OCCURRING, A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY HAS BEEN ISSUED. AS MORE
DATA COMES IN THE ADVISORY AREA WILL LIKELY NEED TO BE TWEAKED
TO COVER MORE OF THE AREA WHERE THE HEAVIER SNOW WILL FALL. THIS
ADVISORY IS TARGETING THE AREA WHERE THESE DEEP DGZ AREAS COULD
PROVIDE FOR INCH PER HOUR SNOW RATES FOR A FEW HOURS ON
SATURDAY MORNING INTO AFTERNOON. THANKFULLY THE FORCING
ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SNOW DOES NOT LINGER LONG AND IT SHOULD
MOVE THROUGH FAIRLY QUICKLY AND NOT LINGER THROUGH MUCH OF THE
DAY LIKE SOME SNOW SYSTEMS DO. CONTINUED COLD AIR ADVECTION WILL
BRING TEMPERATURES DOWN INTO THE 0 TO 6 RANGE SATURDAY NIGHT.
SUNDAY INTO NEXT WEEK... SOME ADDITIONAL SNOW IS POSSIBLE ON
SUNDAY AS THE OTHER END OF THE JET STREAK MOVES OVERHEAD. LESS
IMPRESSIVE FORCING AND LESS DGZ DEPTH IS LESS FAVORABLE, SO NOT
AS MUCH OF A SNOW CHANCE. THE COLD AIR ADVECTION COMES TO AN END
SUNDAY AS THE NORTHERLY WINDS SHIFT TO THE WEST. THIS STARTS A
WARMING TREND THAT CONTINUES INTO THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK. A
ZONAL FLOW PATTERN APPEARS MOST LIKELY TO START THE WEEK WITH
QUIETER WEATHER. HOWEVER THE CANADIAN DETERMINISTIC AND ENSEMBLE
SYSTEMS DIFFER FROM THE GFS/GEFS AND ECMWF/ENS WITH A TUESDAY
SHORTWAVE PROVIDING FOR A RAIN/SNOW CHANCE. THE MORE LIKELY
CHANCE FOR PRECIPITATION COMES LATE NEXT WEEK WHERE THERE IS
MORE WIDESPREAD AGREEMENT IN THE GLOBAL ENSEMBLE SYSTEMS. IN THE
GLOBAL DETERMINISTIC MODELS THEY ALL HAVE THE SAME SYSTEM, BUT
EACH MODEL HAS A DIFFERENT TEMPORAL SOLUTION WITH THURSDAY FOR
THE CANADIAN, FRIDAY FOR THE GFS, AND SATURDAY FOR THE ECMWF. SO
FAIRLY GOOD CONFIDENCE OF AN UPPER MIDWEST SYSTEM, JUST WILL
NEED TO GET SOME MORE DATA AS WE GET CLOSER TO HAVE THE
SOLUTIONS START TO CONVERGE ON A TIME.
AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SATURDAY/
ISSUED AT 520 AM CST FRI FEB 27 2026
THE MAIN STORY FOR THIS TAF PERIOD WILL BE THE INCREASING AND
SHIFTING WINDS THROUGH LATE MORNING/EARLY AFTERNOON AHEAD OF AN
APPROACHING COLD FRONT. HIGH CLOUDS ARE STREAMING IN FROM THE
DAKOTAS THIS MORNING WITH WINDS ALREADY TAKING ON A MORE
WESTERLY COMPONENT ACROSS WESTERN MINNESOTA. GUSTS OF 20 TO
30KTS OUT OF THE NORTHWEST ARE EXPECTED TO SPREAD FROM NORTHWEST
TO SOUTHEAST OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS WITH OUR WISCONSIN
TERMINALS FOLLOWING SUIT AFTER 18-20Z. WE'RE JUST STARTING TO
GET WITHIN THE FORECAST PERIOD WHERE -SN CHANCES ARE CREEPING
IN, BUT HAVE ONLY INCLUDED A PROB30 MENTION FOR KRWF AND KMKT
FOR THE LAST COUPLE HOURS OF THE PERIOD. STILL SOME UNCERTAINTY
IN THE NORTHERN EXTENT OF THIS SNOW. WINDS DIMINISH AND BECOME
NORTH-NORTHWEST BY EARLY SATURDAY MORNING.
KMSP...BREEZY TODAY WITH ONLY SOME HIGH CLOUDS. WINDS DIMINISH
AND CIGS LOWER BY EARLY TOMORROW MORNING. DID GO AHEAD AND
INCLUDE -SN IN THE LAST LINE OF THE TAF, BUT VFR CIGS/VIS
REMAIN IN PLACE FOR NOW DUE TO THE UNCERTAINTY OF THE NORTHERN
EXTENT OF THE NARROW SNOW BAND.
/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/
SAT...VFR, CHC MVFR/-SN. WIND NNW 5-10 KTS.
SUN...VFR. WIND E 5 KTS.
MON...VFR. WIND SW 10-20 KTS.
MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MN...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 6 AM TO 6 PM CST SATURDAY FOR
BLUE EARTH-BROWN-FREEBORN-LE SUEUR-NICOLLET-STEELE-WASECA.
WI...NONE.
DISCUSSION...NDC
AVIATION...DYE
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