014
FXUS63 KMPX 221658
AFDMPX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
1158 AM CDT WED JUL 22 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- COOL AND DRY THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK.
- HEAT AND HUMIDITY RETURNS TO START THE WEEKEND ALONG WITH AN
UPTICK IN RAIN CHANCES.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 202 AM CDT WED JUL 22 2026
HIGH PRESSURE AND NORTHWEST FLOW WILL KEEP US COOL AND DRY. WITH
THE CENTER OF THE HIGH MOVING OVER US TODAY WE WILL ALSO SEE
LIGHT WINDS. THIS PATTERN WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE END OF THE
WEEK. ONCE WE GET INTO THE WEEKEND THE PATTERN WILL SHIFT AS A
RIDGE BUILDS INTO THE CENTRAL CONUS. THIS WILL BRING INCREASED
HEAT AND HUMIDITY. TEMPERATURES BACK INTO THE 90S LOOK LIKELY
FOR THE WEEKEND. WARMER THAN NORMAL TEMPERATURES LOOK TO
CONTINUE INTO NEXT WEEK, BUT LESS LIKELY TO SEE 90S. UNLIKE OUT
LAST ROUND OF HEAT WE ARE NOT EXPECTING TO SEE THE CENTER OF THE
UPPER HIGH OVER US. IT WILL BE TO OUR SOUTH WITH THE RIDGE
OVERHEAD, WHICH WILL ALLOW FOR SHORTWAVES TO MOVE ALONG THIS
BROADER FLOW. STILL SEEING A VERY SCATTERED SOLUTION WITHIN THE
ENSEMBLE MEMBERS WITH LITTLE INCREASE IN CLUSTERING COMPARED TO
A DAY AGO. FOR THE FIRST CHANCE ON SATURDAY THERE IS SOME
CLUSTERING AROUND A LIKELY SOLUTION, BUT THAT REMAINS UP NORTH
CLOSER TO THE INTERNATIONAL BORDER. SUNDAY INTO MONDAY'S CHANCES
REMAIN MORE WIDELY SCATTERED. IN SUMMARY LITTLE IN THE FORECAST
HAS CHANGED OVER THE PAST DAY. THE THESIS OF THE FORECAST IS
STILL SEASONABLY COOL AND DRY BECOMES HOT AND HUMID THIS
WEEKEND WITH UNCERTAIN RAIN/STORM CHANCES.
AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z FRIDAY/
ISSUED AT 1156 AM CDT WED JUL 22 2026
THE HEALTHY CU FIELD HASN'T REALLY MOVED OVER THE LAST FEW HOURS
AND WILL LIKELY MAINTAIN ITSELF THROUGH 02-03Z, AND AS SOON AS
WE LOSE OUR MIXING WE SHOULD SEE IT QUICKLY BECOME SKC. WINDS
BECOME LIGHTER TONIGHT, SHIFTING TOWARDS 210-240 BUT BELOW 10KTS
BY THE END OF THE PERIOD. RNH/EAU COULD SEE SOME MINOR IMPACTS
FROM FOG, HOWEVER GENERALLY IFR AT THE WORST AND INTERMITTENT
MVFR MOST LIKELY. OTHERWISE WE REMAIN VFR AT ALL SITES FOR THE
PERIOD.
KMSP...DUE TO HEALTHY CU FIELD ON SATELLITE AND A LACK OF CHANGE
WITHIN FORECAST SOUNDINGS, KEPT OUR MID-LEVEL CIG INTACT BEFORE
CLEARING US OUT AFTER 03Z INSTEAD OF GOING SCT.
/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/
FRI...VFR. WIND S 10-15KTS.
SAT...VFR. WIND SW 5-10KTS.
SUN...VFR WITH -TSRA POSSIBLE LATE. WIND SW 10G20 KTS.
MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MN...NONE.
WI...NONE.
DISCUSSION...NDC
AVIATION...TDH
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