689
FXUS63 KMPX 231112
AFDMPX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
612 AM CDT SUN AUG 23 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS SOUTHWEST MINNESOTA
MONDAY MORNING
- SCATTERED SHOWERS & THUNDERSTORMS LIKELY TUESDAY, A FEW STRONG
STORMS POSSIBLE DURING THE AFTERNOON/EVENING.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 143 AM CDT SUN AUG 23 2026
A COOL LATE-SUMER NIGHT IS DEVELOPING UNDER CLEAR HIGH PRESSURE,
WITH HIGHS FALLING INTO THE UPPER 40S & LOW 50S ACROSS THE AREA.
PATCHY FOG IS POSSIBLE IN SPOTS THROUGH SUNRISE, MAINLY ALONG
THE MINNESOTA RIVER VALLEY & WESTERN WISCONSIN. SIMILAR
TEMPERATURES TO SATURDAY THIS AFTERNOON WITH HIGHS AGAIN IN THE
UPPER 70S, ALTHOUGH WINDS WILL BE MUCH LIGHTER WITH THE HIGH
PRESSURE OVERHEAD.
THE SURFACE HIGH BEGINS SHIFTING EAST MONDAY, WITH SOUTHERLY FLOW
RETURNING AHEAD OF THE NEXT WEAK COLD FRONT. THIS FRONT LOOKS
TO MOVE THROUGH SOMETIME LATE MONDAY INTO TUESDAY, BRINGING OUR
NEXT CHANCE FOR SCATTERED SHOWERS & THUNDERSTORMS. MOISTURE
RETURN AHEAD OF THE FRONT LOOKS FAIRLY LIMITED THOUGH, AND
CONSIDERABLE SPREAD REMAINS WITHIN THE ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE
REGARDING PRECIPITATION COVERAGE, SO RAIN CHANCES REMAIN FAIRLY
LOW AT THIS POINT. THE FIRST ROUND OF THUNDERSTORMS LOOKS
POSSIBLE LATE SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY MORNING, BUT GUIDANCE
GENERALLY KEEP THE SHORTWAVE & BULK OF THE PRECIPITATION OFF TO
THE WEST OVER THE DAKOTAS. ANOTHER COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE
REGION ON TUESDAY, BUT THE GENERAL MODEL TIMING BRINGS THE
FRONT THROUGH DURING THE MORNING HOURS, WHICH WOULD MEAN THAT
ANY WIDESPREAD CONVECTION & APPRECIABLE RAINFALL COULD BE
LIMITED. THERE ARE A FEW HIGH-RESOLUTION MODELS THAT ARE SLOWER
WITH THE FRONT, BRINGING IT THROUGH DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON &
EVENING. SHOULD THIS SLOWER TIMING OCCUR, WE COULD SEE A FEW
STRONG OR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ALONG THE FRONT WITH CAPE VALUES
REACHING 1000-1500 J/KG DURING THE AFTERNOON ALONG WITH 30-40
KTS OF DEEP SHEAR. SHOWERS & THUNDERSTORMS DURING THE MORNING
COULD ALWAYS LEAD TO REDUCED INSTABILITY & A LOWER CHANCE OF
AFTERNOON STORMS AS WELL.
OTHERWISE, TEMPERATURES LOOK TO REMAIN STEADY THROUGH NEXT WEEK
WITH HIGHS GENERALLY AROUND 80 & LOWS IN THE 50S TO LOW 60S.
ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE SUGGESTS WE COULD GET INTO A MORE ACTIVE
PATTERN OVER THE WEEKEND AS A TRAIN OF SHORTWAVES PASSES OVER
THE UPPER MIDWEST.
AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY/
ISSUED AT 612 AM CDT SUN AUG 23 2026
PATCHY GROUND FOG AND TEMPORARY VISIBILITY REDUCTIONS ARE
POSSIBLE IN THE THE FIRST HOUR OR TWO OF THE PERIOD. AXN, STC, &
RNH ALREADY HAVE OR ARE MOST LIKELY TO OBSERVE VISIBILITY
REDUCTIONS, BUT WE'LL MONITOR OBSERVATIONAL TRENDS AT THE OTHER
TERMINALS AND AMD AS NECESSARY. OTHERWISE, A QUIET 12Z PERIOD
WILL FEATURE LIGHTER WINDS THAT YESTERDAY ALONG WITH SOME
DIURNAL VFR CU. WINDS TURN EASTERLY TONIGHT. HIGH CLOUDS ARE
FORECAST OVERSPREAD THE FORECAST AREA FROM WEST TO EAST THROUGH
MONDAY MORNING.
KMSP...NO ADDITIONAL CONCERNS.
/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/
MON...VFR. WIND SE-SW 5-10 KTS.
TUE...VFR, CHC -SHRA EARLY. WIND SW 10-20 KTS.
WED...VFR. WIND NW 10-20 KTS.
MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MN...NONE.
WI...NONE.
DISCUSSION...ETA
AVIATION...STRUS
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