042
FXUS63 KMPX 251105
AFDMPX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
605 AM CDT THU JUN 25 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- A MAJOR PATTERN SHIFT WILL OCCUR THIS WEEKEND. EXTREME HEAT
AND HUMIDITY ARE EXPECTED TO BUILD SUNDAY PERSIST THROUGH NEXT
WEEK. HIGHS 95 TO 100 AND DEW POINTS IN THE 60S AND 70S WILL
SEND HEAT INDICES TO DANGEROUS LEVELS MONDAY.
- PERIODIC CHANCES FOR THUNDERSTORMS BEGINNING SATURDAY NIGHT
AND CONTINUING THROUGH MUCH OF NEXT WEEK, BUT THOSE CHANCES
ARE TRENDING DOWN.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 335 AM CDT THU JUN 25 2026
A BANK OF LOW CLOUDS CONTINUES TO PROGRESS SOUTHWEST ACROSS
EASTERN MN AND WESTERN WI EARLY THIS MORNING. SOME PATCHY FOG
HAS DEVELOPED BENEATH IT, BUT MOST LOCATIONS ARE REPORTING
UNRESTRICTED VISIBILITIES. THE LOW CLOUDS WILL LINGER INTO MID
MORNING BEFORE LIFTING AND SCATTERING LATE MORNING. THE REST OF
THE DAY WILL FEATURE DIURNAL CU, LIGHT WINDS, AND PLEASANT
TEMPERATURES IN THE 70S.
SOUTHEAST SURFACE FLOW WILL KEEP A RELATIVELY DRY AIRMASS IN
PLACE FRIDAY AND SATURDAY AND A WARM FRONT WILL REMAIN SOUTH
ACROSS THE MID MS VALLEY TO CENTRAL PLAINS. THE WARM FRONT WILL
APPROACH SATURDAY NIGHT. A STRENGTHENING LLJ AND RAPID MOISTURE
INCREASE WITH STEEPENING MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES AND SUFFICIENT
DEEP LAYER SHEAR WILL RESULT IN THUNDERSTORM CHANCES. HOWEVER,
STRONG CAPPING MAY LIMIT DEVELOPMENT AND MODELS HAVE BEEN
TRENDING DRIER. ANY STORMS THAT MANAGE TO DEVELOP SATURDAY
NIGHT MAY LINGER INTO SUNDAY MORNING BEFORE THE WARM FRONT
LIFTS NORTH.
THE PASSAGE OF THE WARM FRONT SUNDAY WILL RESULT IN A MAJOR
PATTERN CHANGE NEXT WEEK. A STOUT EML AND VERY WARM TEMPERATURES
ALOFT (+16C OR WARMER AT 700 MB) WILL PROVIDE AN IMPOSSIBLE CAP
TO BREAK IN THE WARM SECTOR SUNDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH MONDAY.
PROGGED TEMPERATURES REMAIN QUITE HOT SUNDAY AND ESPECIALLY MONDAY.
DEPENDING ON THE TIMING OF THE FRONT AND THE DECREASE OF
CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY EARLY IN THE DAY, HIGHS SUNDAY MAY REACH THE
UPPER 90S ACROSS SOUTHWESTERN MN. THIS IS LOOKING MORE LIKELY AS
THUNDERSTORM CHANCES TREND DOWN. BY MONDAY, THERMAL RIDGING
CHARACTERIZED BY 925 MB TEMPS OF +29 TO +32C STILL APPEAR
LIKELY TO ENGULF MUCH OF CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN MN AND WESTERN WI.
HIGHS IN THE UPPER 90S TO LOWER 100S CAN BE EXPECTED WITH THIS
TYPE OF AIRMASS. DETERMINISTIC GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO BRING
HIGHS NEARING 100 ACROSS SOUTHERN AND WESTERN MN, INCLUDING THE
TWIN CITIES. IN ADDITION, DEW POINTS WILL RISE INTO THE LOW TO
MID 70S, ESPECIALLY ACROSS EASTERN MN AND WI, POTENTIALLY
PUSHING HEAT INDICES INTO THE 103 TO 108 RANGE. DEEPER MIXING
ACROSS WESTERN MN SHOULD ALLOW DEW POINTS TO FALL SEVERAL
DEGREES SHORT OF THOSE LEVELS, BUT THAT MAY ALSO ALLOW
TEMPERATURES TO CLIMB EVEN HIGHER. IN FACT, GUIDANCE INDICATES
925 MB TEMPS NEAR THE SD BORDER AS HOT AS +34C, WHICH WOULD
SUPPORT HIGHS IN THE MID 100S. MONDAY IS EXPECTED TO BE THE
FIRST DANGEROUS DAY FOR HEAT OF THE SEASON, BUT MAY ONLY BE ONE
OF MANY NEXT WEEK.
GUIDANCE HAS BEEN CONSISTENT WITH BRINGING A WEAKENING COLD
FRONT INTO WESTERN MN MONDAY EVENING. THE CAP SHOULD EASE AS
THE EML WEAKENS AND EXITS TO THE NORTHEAST LATE IN THE DAY.
RICH THETA-E AIR WILL PROVIDE A VERY UNSTABLE AIRMASS.
HOWEVER, THE FRONT IS NOT DEPICTED AS PROGRESSIVE AS IT HAS BEEN
IN PREVIOUS DAYS AND MAY WASHOUT ENTIRELY BEFORE REACHING THE
BETTER LOW LEVEL MOISTURE ACROSS EASTERN/SOUTHERN MN. THE WEAK
FORCING ALONG THE FRONT, DRIER BOUNDARY LAYER IN WESTERN MN, AND
SOME REMAINING CAPPING CASTS DOUBT ON WHETHER DEVELOPMENT WILL
OCCUR. PROVIDED THUNDERSTORMS STRUGGLE TO DEVELOP, TUESDAY WILL
BE ANOTHER RATHER HOT DAY AND MAY BE WARMER THAN CURRENTLY
FORECAST.
THE REST OF NEXT WEEK WILL FEATURE AN INTENSE 500 MB RIDGE
(596-598 DAM) PARKED OVER THE OHIO VALLEY. THIS IS A SHIFT NORTH
FROM PREVIOUS FORECASTS. THE RESULT WOULD BE A DRIER AND HOTTER
FORECAST THROUGH NEXT WEEK WITH THUNDERSTORMS REMAINING NORTH
AND WEST. THINGS WILL DRY OUT VERY QUICKLY IF WE DODGE
THUNDERSTORM CHANCES.
AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY/
ISSUED AT 605 AM CDT THU JUN 25 2026
IFR CIGS HAVE REACHED STC, MSP, AND RNH AND WILL REACH EAU AND
AXN BY THE START OF THE PERIOD. IMPROVEMENT WILL OCCUR MID TO
LATE MORNING WITH VFR THIS AFTERNOON. NORTH WINDS WILL VEER
EASTERLY TONIGHT WHILE REMAINING LIGHT.
KMSP...IFR WILL CONTINUE UNTIL 14-15Z, THEN LIFT AND SCATTER
THROUGHOUT THE REST OF THE MORNING.
/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/
FRI...VFR. WIND SE 5-10 KTS.
SAT...VFR. WIND SE 10-15G25 KTS.
SUN...VFR. WIND SSE 10-15G30 KTS.
MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MN...NONE.
WI...NONE.
DISCUSSION...BORGHOFF
AVIATION...BORGHOFF
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