482
FXUS63 KMPX 242300
AFDMPX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
600 PM CDT SAT OCT 24 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- COLD FRONT IS PASSING THROUGH MN THIS AFTERNOON WITH MUCH
COOLER TEMPERATURES EXPECTED THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK. TRENDING
WARMER AGAIN LATER NEXT WEEK AND NEXT WEEKEND.
- MULTIPLE CHANCES FOR RAIN THROUGH NEXT WEEK. HEAVIEST RAINFALL
AMOUNTS EXPECTED ACROSS WESTERN MN MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 229 PM CDT SAT OCT 24 2026
AT 2 PM, A COLD FRONT WAS EVIDENT ON DOPPLER RADAR STRETCHING
FROM JUST EAST OF ST. CLOUD SOUTH TO HUTCHINSON AND JUST WEST OF
NEW ULM. TEMPERATURES AHEAD OF THE FRONT HAVE RISEN INTO THE MID
70S WITH A SHARP DROP INTO THE 40S AND 50S BEHIND IT. CLOUDS
AND SHOWERS HAVE BEEN PERSISTENT ACROSS WESTERN MN ALL DAY AND
ARE NOT SHOWING SIGNS OF EXPANDING EASTWARD YET. THE SHOWERS
APPEAR TIED TO A NEARLY STATIONARY PWAT GRADIENT DESPITE A
PROGRESSIVE SURFACE COLD FRONT. EVENTUALLY DRIER AIR ALOFT WILL
SPREAD SOUTHEAST AND FOCUS SHOWER ACTIVITY FARTHER SOUTH AND
EAST THIS EVENING. DUE TO RIDGING ACROSS THE MS VALLEY, THE
1-1.25 INCH PWAT PLUME WON'T CLEAR THE REGION AND HANG UP
ACROSS SOUTHERN MN. THIS WILL KEEP LOW CHANCES FOR SHOWERS
GOING ACROSS SOUTHERN/EASTERN MN AND WI THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING.
AN UPPER LOW OVER THE DESERT SOUTHWEST TODAY WILL ADVANCE TO
THE ROCKIES LATE SUNDAY. AS IT APPROACHES, SHOWER ACTIVITY WILL
INCREASE ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS TO SOUTHERN AND WESTERN MN BY
SUNDAY NIGHT. THE LOW WILL TRACK FROM CENTRAL NE TO EASTERN SD
TO NORTHERN MN MONDAY INTO TUESDAY. THE BEST MOISTURE TRANSPORT
WILL BE CONFINED TO WESTERN MN AND IS WHERE THE BEST CHANCES FOR
A SOAKING RAIN IS FORECAST. RAINFALL TOTALS OF AROUND AN INCH
ARE LIKELY ACROSS FAR WESTERN MN WITH AMOUNTS TAPERING OFF TO
THE EAST. THE SYSTEM WILL EXIT TO THE NORTH EARLY TUESDAY.
ANOTHER DISTURBANCE WILL QUICKLY FOLLOW TUESDAY NIGHT AND
WEDNESDAY, BRINGING THE NEXT CHANCE FOR SHOWERS.
A RIDGE WILL REMAIN PARKED OVER THE APPALACHIANS AND OHIO
VALLEY THROUGH THE REST OF THE FORECAST PERIOD. SOUTHWEST FLOW
WILL BRING ANOTHER SEVERAL DISTURBANCES NORTHEAST ACROSS THE
UPPER MIDWEST, ALL BRINGING WITH THEM CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION.
PREDICTABILITY OF EACH REMAINS LOW AND SO POPS ARE CURRENTLY
LITTERING THE FORECAST. AS PREDICTABILITY INCREASES OVER THE
NEXT COUPLE DAYS WE SHOULD BE ABLE TO FINE TUNE POPS A BIT
BETTER. REGARDLESS OF SPECIFIC TIMING, IT'S LOOKING LIKE AN
ACTIVE PERIOD AHEAD.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE COOL TO START THE WEEK, BUT THEN WILL WARM
BACK TO THE 60S AND QUITE POSSIBLY 70S AS THE WEEK WEARS ON WITH
BROAD SOUTHERLY FLOW DEVELOPING IN ADVANCE OF A LARGER SCALE
SYSTEM LATE WEEK.
AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY/
ISSUED AT 600 PM CDT SAT OCT 24 2026
AT TAF ISSUANCE TIME, THE FRONT IS NEAR RNH AND PAST ALL THE
MINNESOTA TERMINALS. BY THE TIME IT GETS TO EAU WINDS WILL FALL
TO MORE OF A LIGHT AND VARIABLE ALONG THE DIURNAL CURVE, SO
THERE WILL BE LESS OF A CLEAR WIND SHIFT. RAIN SHOWERS CONTINUE
WITH A MOSTLY VFR, BUT SOME OCCASIONAL MVFR ACROSS CENTRAL
MINNESOTA. THIS WILL TRACK TO THE EAST THIS EVENING INTO
TONIGHT. ANOTHER ROUND OF RAIN IS EXPECTED ON SUNDAY WITH A
FAIRLY SCATTERED RAIN SHOWER FORECAST. IMPACTS SIMILAR TO TODAY
WHERE IT RAINS WITH A MAINLY LIGHT RAIN VFR IMPACT, BUT SOME
OCCASIONAL MORE CEILINGS BASED PERIODS OF MVFR.
KMSP... WITH FRONTAL PASSAGE BEHIND US NORTHWESTERLY WINDS TO
NORTHERLY WINDS WILL BE WITH US THIS PERIOD. SOME LIGHT RAIN
POSSIBLE AROUND 02Z WITH VFR MOST LIKELY, BUT KEPT A PROB30 FOR
MVFR AS WE HAVE SEEN SOME LOWER CEILINGS AT TIMES WITH THIS RAIN
TO THE WEST. TOMORROW ANTHER CHANCE FOR SCATTERED RAIN SHOWERS
IN THE AFTERNOON/EVENING.
/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/
MON...-RA/MVFR LIKELY, CHC IFR. WIND NE 5-10KTS.
TUE...CHC A.M. -SHRA/MVFR. WIND SE 10-15KTS.
WED...CHC A.M. -SHRA/MVFR. WIND SW 10-15KTS.
MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MN...NONE.
WI...NONE.
DISCUSSION...BORGHOFF
AVIATION...NDC
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