446
FXUS63 KMPX 241741
AFDMPX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
1241 PM CDT FRI OCT 24 2025
KEY MESSAGES
- TODAY, TEMPERATURES STARTING OUT IN THE 20S THIS MORNING,
WITH AFTERNOON HIGHS REBOUNDING INTO THE 50S AND 60S.
- FRIDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY SATURDAY, CONFIDENCE CONTINUES TO
INCREASE FOR RAIN.
- CONFIDENCE REMAINS LOW FOR NEXT WEEK'S WEATHER.
UPDATE
ISSUED AT 1105 AM CDT FRI OCT 24 2025
LATE MORNING MIXING IS PROMOTING THE EROSION OF DENSE RIVER FOG
ALONG THE MN/WI BORDER. WATER VAPOR CAPTURES THE INCOMING POTENT
SHORTWAVE CROSSING THE INTERNATIONAL BORDER. LATEST GUIDANCE HAS
TRENDED UPWARDS WITH BOTH THE PRECIP FOOTPRINT AND QPF AMOUNTS,
SO HAVE COLLABORATED WITH NEIGHBORING OFFICES TO BOOST POPS FROM
20-30S TO 40-60S ACROSS EASTERN MN/WESTERN WI TONIGHT THROUGH
SATURDAY MORNING.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 258 AM CDT FRI OCT 24 2025
TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING...EARLY MORNING TEMPERATURES WERE
IN THE MID 20S TO LOWER 30S ACROSS THE REGION AS SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE LEAD TO CLEAR SKIES AND COOL TEMPERATURES. THE HIGH
PRESSURE WAS SLOWLY DRIFTING EASTWARD, AND AS A RESULT SOUTHERLY
WINDS WERE STARTING TO DEVELOP ACROSS WESTERN MINNESOTA. THIS
TREND WILL CONTINUE TODAY, AND THE SOUTHERLY WIND WILL BRING
WARMER TEMPERATURES WITH HIGHS BACK IN THE 60S ACROSS WESTERN
MINNESOTA, AND 50S ELSEWHERE.
LATER TONIGHT, A POTENT LITTLE SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL MOVE FROM
NORTH DAKOTA DOWN ALONG I-94. HIRES MODELS ARE COMING INTO
BETTER AGREEMENT IN SHOWERS DEVELOPING WITH THE WARM AIR
ADVECTION AHEAD OF THIS WAVE, SO HAVE CONTINUED WITH RAIN
CHANCES LATE TONIGHT INTO SATURDAY MORNING, ESPECIALLY ALONG AND
EAST OF I-35. IF THIS TREND CONTINUES, WOULD EXPECT THE RAINFALL
CHANCES TO INCREASE WITH THE NEXT FEW FORECAST UPDATES.
SATURDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH THURSDAY...THIS POTENT LITTLE WAVE
WILL QUICKLY SHEAR OUT, AND RAIN CHANCES WILL END FROM WEST TO
EAST LATE SATURDAY MORNING. EXPECT A DRY AFTERNOON FOR MOST, AND
THIS WILL CONTINUE INTO EARLY SUNDAY AS WELL. THEN THROUGHOUT
THE DAY, RAINFALL CHANCES WILL SLOWLY RETURN AS THE NEXT SYSTEM
APPROACHES FROM THE WEST.
HOWEVER, CONFIDENCE WITH THE TIMING AND LOCATION OF
PRECIPITATION FOR SUNDAY AND BEYOND IS LOW. WHAT ONCE WAS AN
IMPRESSIVE CYCLONE, IS NOW SPLIT FLOW, WITH THE MAIN JET ENERGY
TO THE SOUTH, AND AN OMEGA BLOCK TO THE NORTH. THIS PATTERN IS
OVERALL HARD TO PREDICT, AND TENDS TO TREND DRIER WITH TIME. FOR
NOW, STILL HAVE A SMATTERING OF SMALL RAIN CHANCES THROUGHOUT
THE WEEK. BY THE TIME NEXT WEEKEND ROLLS AROUND, EXPECT COOL
TEMPERATURES.
AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY/
ISSUED AT 1240 PM CDT FRI OCT 24 2025
CLEAR SKIES ARE EXPECTED TO BECOME BKN/OVC LATE THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING AS OUR NEXT SYSTEM APPROACHES FROM THE
NORTHWEST. BREEZY SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS, ESPECIALLY FOR AXN ARE
EXPECTED TO DECREASE AFTER SUNSET TO AROUND 5-7KTS. THE PRIMARY
CONCERN THIS PERIOD WILL BE OVERNIGHT -SHRA CHANCES MOSTLY FOR OUR
EASTERN SITES. STRONGEST CONFIDENCE FOR COVERAGE WILL BE AT MKT,
RNH, AND EAU. HENCE A FEW HOURS OF PREVAILING -SHRA AT THOSE
LOCATIONS. STC AS OF NOW LOOKED TO BE ON THE FRINGE OF THE POTENTIAL
PRECIP THEREFORE MAINTAINED PROB30 MENTION FOR THAT LOCATION. ONCE
THE SYSTEM CLEARS TO OUR SE TOMORROW MORNING, CIGS WILL BE SLOW TO
IMPROVE TO BACK TO AROUND 5-10KFT LATE MORNING.
KMSP...ASIDE FROM THE CONCERNS IN THE MAIN AVIATION DISCUSSION,
DECIDED TO MAINTAIN PROB30 -SHRA MENTIONS AT MSP FOR NOW. ALTHOUGH
WILL NEED TO WATCH THE AMOUNT OF DRY AIR IN THE BOUNDARY LAYER
OVERNIGHT. SHOULD THIS BE OF LESSER EXTENT, COULD RESULT IN BETTER
CHANCES OF -SHRA COVERAGE DURING THE PRE-DAWN HOURS SATURDAY
MORNING. BORDERLINE MVFR, LOW VFR CIGS WILL LINGER THROUGH MOST OF
THE MORNING BEFORE SLIGHTLY IMPROVING TO CIGS BETWEEN 5-10KFT IN THE
AFTERNOON.
/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/
SUN...VFR. WIND SE 10-15 KTS.
MON-TUE...MAINLY VFR. CHANCE MVFR/-RA. WIND SE 10-15 KTS.
MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MN...NONE.
WI...NONE.
UPDATE...STRUS
DISCUSSION...JRB
AVIATION...DUNLEAVY
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