675
FXUS63 KMPX 282340
AFDMPX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
540 PM CST FRI NOV 28 2025
KEY MESSAGES
- A LONG DURATION SNOW EVENT BEGINS TONIGHT & CONTINUES THROUGH
EARLY SUNDAY MORNING. SEVERAL INCHES OF SNOWFALL ACCUMULATION
ARE EXPECTED, WITH THE HEAVIEST AMOUNTS OF 6-10" ACROSS
SOUTHERN MINNESOTA.
- WELL-BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARRIVE AFTER THE SNOW ON SUNDAY
AND PERSIST THROUGH THE WEEK.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 212 PM CST FRI NOV 28 2025
FORECAST REMAINS ON TRACK FOR A LONG DURATION SNOW EVENT
BEGINNING TONIGHT ACROSS WESTERN MINNESOTA & CONTINUING INTO
THE OVERNIGHT HOURS SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY. SURFACE OBSERVATIONS
ALREADY SHOW A FEW SNOW REPORTS OVER EASTERN SOUTH DAKOTA &
NORTHWEST IOWA, ALTHOUGH IT WILL STILL TAKE A FEW MORE HOURS FOR
SNOW TO OVERCOME THE DRY AIR & BEGIN ACCUMULATING OVER
SOUTHWEST MINNESOTA. SNOW WILL SPREAD ACROSS SOUTHWEST &
SOUTHERN MINNESOTA THIS EVENING, FOLLOWED BY A LIKELY LULL IN
THE SNOW FOR A FEW HOURS DURING THE EARLY MORNING HOURS. THE
SNOW THEN SPREADS FARTHER NORTH & EAST INTO CENTRAL MINNESOTA &
WESTERN WISCONSIN THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING AS THE WARM-AIR
ADVECTION & ISENTROPIC ASCENT BECOME MORE PRONOUNCED TO THE
NORTH OF THE SURFACE LOW TRACKING THROUGH THE MID-MISSISSIPPI
VALLEY. THE SNOW WILL LIGHTEN THROUGH THE EVENING AND END FROM
WEST TO EAST OVERNIGHT SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY AS THE WARP-AROUND
REGION OF THE LOW MOVES OFF TO THE EAST.
BECAUSE THE SURFACE LOW IS TRACKING SO FAR SOUTH OF OUR AREA,
THIS EVENT IS SHAPING UP AS ONE OF OUR "CLASSIC" WINTER STORMS,
RATHER AS A LONG-DURATON SNOW EVENT WHERE 12-24 HOURS OF LIGHT
TO MODERATE SNOW COULD STILL ADD UP TO SEVERAL INCHES. THE
HEAVIEST AMOUNTS OF 6-10" ARE EXPECTED ACROSS SOUTHERN
MINNESOTA, WHERE THE CHANCES OF SEEING 12+ HOURS OF SNOWFALL
ARE MOST LIKELY. FARTHER NORTH INTO THE TWIN CITIES METRO &
WESTERN WISCONSIN, WE MAY NOT SEE MUCH IN THE WAY OF SNOWFALL
ACCUMULATION UNTIL SATURDAY MORNING, WHICH WILL LIMIT AMOUNTS TO
2-5" (HIGHER FARTHER SOUTH). EVEN FARTHER NORTH INTO CENTRAL
MINNESOTA, ONLY A FEW HOURS OF LIGHT SNOW WILL KEEP
ACCUMULATIONS UNDER AN INCH OR TWO. WHILE THE SNOW IS NOT
EXPECTED TO BE HEAVY AT ANY PARTICULAR TIME, DISRUPTIONS TO
TRAVEL ARE EXPECTED SATURDAY GIVEN THE SNOWFALL ACCUMULATION &
HOLIDAY WEEKEND. IF POSSIBLE, PLAN ON POSTPONING TRIPS TO SUNDAY
AFTER THE SNOW HAS ENDED & ROADS WILL BE CLEAR.
AFTER THE SNOW ENDS, BROAD CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE MOVES INTO
THE REGION ALONG WITH WELL-BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES. LOWS WILL
DEPEND ON THE SNOWPACK IN PLACE, BUT WILL LIKELY BE AROUND ZERO
WITH DAYTIME HIGHS ONLY IN THE TEENS TO LOW 20S. THE COLD
PATTERN REMAINS IN PLACE THROUGH THE WEEK WITH AN EVEN COLDER
SURGE OF ARCTIC AIR EXPECTED LATER IN THE WEEK. PRECIPITATION
CHANCES LOOK LOW, WITH SOME FLURRIES OR LIGHT SNOW POSSIBLE
WITH THE INTRUSIONS OF COLD AIR LATER IN THE WEEK.
AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SATURDAY/
ISSUED AT 516 PM CST FRI NOV 28 2025
THE FIRST WAVE OF SNOW HAS ALREADY BEGUN OVER SOUTHWEST MN AND
ALONG I-90. STATIONS WITHIN THIS REGION HAVE BEEN REPORTING
MVFR/VFR CIGS AND IFR VISIBILITIES. THIS SNOW WILL GRADUALLY
SPREAD EAST INTO LATE THIS EVENING, WITH RWF AND MKT SEEING THE
GREATEST IMPACTS WITH VISIBILITIES OF 1-2 MILES AND MVFR CIGS.
TERMINALS TO THE NORTH WILL SEE LIGHTER SNOWFALL RATES AND THUS
SHOULD SEE VFR/MVFR THROUGH TONIGHT. A LULL IN THE SNOW IS
EXPECTED EARLY SATURDAY MORNING BEFORE THE NEXT WAVE OF SNOW
COMMENCES AS THE PARENT STORM SYSTEM STRENGTHENS. SNOW SHOULD
SPREAD AREA-WIDE BY LATE MORNING WITH HEAVIEST RATES AND
ACCUMULATIONS EXPECTED ACROSS SOUTHERN MN (RWF AND MKT) WHERE
LIFR CONDITIONS ARE LIKELY. VISIBILITIES SHOULD SINK TO 1/2
MILE BY LATE MORNING AND LAST THROUGH MOST OF SATURDAY
AFTERNOON. SNOWFALL RATES WILL LESSEN AS ONE GOES NORTH BUT
STILL EXPECT VISIBILITIES OF 1-2 MILES AND AT HIGHEST LOW-END
MVFR CIGS. SNOW WILL TAPER OFF ACROSS WESTERN MN BY LATE
AFTERNOON. SNOWFALL ACCUMULATIONS STILL LOOK ON TRACK FROM THE
EARLIER DISCUSSION. VARIABLE/EASTERLY WINDS THIS EVENING TURN
NORTHEASTERLY BY MORNING AND INCREASE TO NEAR 10 KNOTS. WINDS
BECOME NORTHERLY FROM WEST TO EAST DURING THE AFTERNOON WITH
GUSTS NEARING 20 KNOTS FOR SOUTHERN MN.
KMSP...KEPT A PROB30 FROM 06-08Z FOR THE POSSIBILITY OF SOME
LIGHT FLURRIES BUT SNOW SHOULD SET IN AFTER 08Z. MVFR CIGS LOOK
TO BE DELAYED 2-4 HOURS FROM EARLIER TAF WITH CIGS NEARING LOW-
END MVFR/IFR BY NOON. HEAVIEST SNOWFALL RATES ARE EXPECTED FROM
ABOUT 16-01Z WHERE RATES MAY REACH 0.5 INCH/HR. TOTAL SNOW
ACCUMULATION OF 2-5" IS EXPECTED. WINDS WILL GRADUALLY TURN
COUNTER-CLOCKWISE FROM EASTERLY TO NORTHERLY THROUGHOUT SATURDAY
WHILE INCREASING IN SPEED. SUSTAINED VALUES WILL REACH 10-12
KNOTS WHILE GUSTS COULD NEAR 20 KNOTS.
/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/
SUN...VFR. WIND NW 10-15KTS.
MON...VFR. WIND SW 5-10KTS.
TUE...VFR. MVFR CEILINGS POSSIBLE. WIND SW 5-10KTS.
MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MN...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT CST SATURDAY NIGHT FOR
CHIPPEWA-LAC QUI PARLE-RENVILLE-SIBLEY-SWIFT-YELLOW
MEDICINE.
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO MIDNIGHT CST
SATURDAY NIGHT FOR CARVER-DAKOTA-HENNEPIN-KANDIYOHI-
MCLEOD-MEEKER-RAMSEY-SCOTT-WASHINGTON-WRIGHT.
WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL MIDNIGHT CST SATURDAY NIGHT FOR
BLUE EARTH-BROWN-FARIBAULT-FREEBORN-MARTIN-NICOLLET-
REDWOOD-STEELE-WASECA-WATONWAN.
WINTER STORM WARNING FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 6 AM CST SUNDAY
FOR GOODHUE-LE SUEUR-RICE.
WI...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 3 AM SATURDAY TO 6 AM CST SUNDAY
FOR CHIPPEWA-DUNN-EAU CLAIRE-PEPIN-PIERCE-ST. CROIX.
DISCUSSION...ETA
AVIATION...CTG
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