319
FXUS63 KMPX 042351
AFDMPX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
651 PM CDT SAT JUL 4 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- ISOLATED TO SCATTED THUNDERSTORMS ARE FORECAST THROUGH
9PM/10PM THIS EVENING. A FEW THUNDERSTORMS COULD BECOME STRONG
TO SEVERE WITH THE MAIN THREATS BEING HEAVY RAIN, LIGHTNING,
GUSTY WINDS, AND A FEW INSTANCES OF HAIL UP TO 1 INCH.
- QUIET AND WARM WEATHER IS EXPECTED SUNDAY THROUGH AT LEAST
MONDAY NIGHT. THE NEXT BEST CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ARRIVES LATE TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 233 PM CDT SAT JUL 4 2026
19Z SATELLITE SHOWS PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES ACROSS CENTRAL AND
SOUTHERN MINNESOTA AND WESTERN WISCONSIN. A MUGGY AFTERNOON AND
EVENING IS EXPECTED WITH TEMPERATURES CONTINUING TO WARM INTO
THE 80S AND DEW POINTS RISING INTO THE UPPER 60S AND 70S. THE
MUGGY CONDITIONS WILL ALSO ALLOW THE ATMOSPHERE TO CONTINUE TO
DESTABILIZE WITH SBCAPE VALUES PEAKING IN THE 2000 TO 2500 J/KG
RANGE THIS AFTERNOON. THIS INSTABILITY COMBINED WITH A WEAK
PASSING OVERHEAD DISTURBANCE WILL SUPPORT SOME ISOLATED TO
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AND
EVENING. HOWEVER, EXPECT THUNDERSTORMS TO BE MORE PULSE-LIKE
DUE TO RATHER WEAK 0-6KM SHEAR VALUES AROUND 20 KTS AT BEST,
MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES AROUND 6.4 C/KM, DCAPE VALUES OF 800 TO
900 J/KG, AND OVERALL WEAK ASCENT. SHOULD A THUNDERSTORM BE ABLE
TO LAST LONG ENOUGH TO BECOME STRONG TO SEVERE, THE THREAT
LOOKS TO BE GUSTY WINDS AND INSTANCES OF HAIL UP TO 1 INCH.
PERIODS OF HEAVY RAINFALL ARE ALSO POSSIBLE WITH PWATS RIGHT
AROUND 1.5-1.6 INCHES. BECAUSE OF THE OVER PULSE-LIKE NATURE OF
THUNDERSTORMS, IT WILL BE DIFFICULT TO PIN POINT EXACTLY WHERE
THEY WILL DEVELOP. THAT BEING SAID, THE GREATEST COVERAGE,
TIMING, AND CHANCES (UP TO 60%) OF THUNDERSTORMS LOOKS TO BE
ACROSS CENTRAL MINNESOTA THROUGH 6PM. THIS IS DUE TO BEING IN
CLOSER PROXIMITY TO BETTER UPPER-LEVEL SUPPORT. THERE IS
GENERALLY A 30% TO 40% CHANCE OF A SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM ACROSS
MINNESOTA AND WESTERN WISCONSIN THROUGH 9PM/10PM THIS EVENING.
CHANCES QUICKLY DECREASE AFTER SUNSET BUT AN ISOLATED SHOWER OR
THUNDERSTORM CANNOT BE RULED OUT FOR SOUTHERN PORTIONS THROUGH
2AM.
UPPER-LEVEL FLOW IS FORECAST TO BE MORE NORTHERLY ON SUNDAY AS A
RIDGE BEGINS TO BUILD INTO THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY.
THIS MEANS THAT HEIGHT RISES ALOFT WILL SUPPRESS MOST CONVECTION
CHANCES TO CLOSE OUT THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND. THAT BEING SAID, A
STRAY SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS CANNOT
BE RULED OUT FOR FAR SOUTHEASTERN MINNESOTA. CHANCES OF THIS
OCCURRING ARE ONLY AROUND 15% AT BEST. THERE IS A REASONABLE
AMOUNT OF CONSENSUS THAT THE POSITIVELY ALIGNED RIDGE AXIS WILL
MOVE OVER THE AREA ON MONDAY. SO MONDAY'S FORECAST CALLS FOR A
WARM DAY WITH HIGHS IN THE MID 80S AND MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES. BY
MONDAY EVENING, SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES RETURN AS A WEAK
SHORTWAVE TRAVERSES THE AREA. BECAUSE THE WAVE PASSES OVER
LATER IN THE DAY/CLOSER TO SUNSET, OVERALL COVERAGE IS FORECAST
TO BE ON THE LOWER END. IF THE SHORTWAVE TRAVERSES THE AREA
EARLIER IN THE AFTERNOON AND AROUND PEAK HEATING ON MONDAY, MORE
AREAS COULD SEE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.
A MORE POTENT SHORTWAVE AND AN ASSOCIATED FRONT LOOKS TO
APPROACH THE FORECAST AREA LATE TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY. THIS IS
CURRENTLY THE NEXT BEST CHANCE (60% TO 70%) FOR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE AREA. FOR THURSDAY AND FRIDAY, A
LARGELY ZONAL PATTERN LOOKS TO SET UP WITH EMBEDDED SHORTWAVES
PASSING THROUGH. THERE IS A REASONABLE AMOUNT OF UNCERTAINTY ON
TIMING AND STRENGTH OF THE SHORTWAVES WHICH WILL INFLUENCE THE
SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES TO END THE WORK WEEK.
AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY/
ISSUED AT 629 PM CDT SAT JUL 4 2026
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS NEAR KSTC ARE FORECAST TO CONTINUE
PUSHING TO THE SOUTH AND EAST THROUGH 03Z/04Z SUNDAY. CONFIDENCE
IN STORMS HOLDING TOGETHER BY THE TIME THEY REACH KMSP AND KRNH
IS AROUND 60 PERCENT SO WENT WITH A TEMPO GROUP. CONFIDENCE IN
DIRECT IMPACTS AT ALL OTHER TERMINALS IS AROUND 30 PERCENT SO
PROB30 GROUPS HAVE BEEN MAINTAINED. MVFR FLIGHT CONDITIONS
AND WIND GUSTS AROUND 25 KTS ARE POSSIBLE IN ANY THUNDERSTORMS.
THERE IS LOW CLOUD/FOG POTENTIAL SUNDAY MORNING AT ANY TERMINAL
THAT HAS SEEN/SEES RAIN AS LONG AS CLOUDS CLEAR OUT OVERNIGHT.
CONFIDENCE IS HIGHEST THAT LOW CLOUDS/FOG WILL DEVELOP AT KMSP
AND KSTC. CONFIDENCE IS AROUND 20 PERCENT AT ALL OTHER TERMINALS
SO WENT WITH A FEW010 OR SCT010 GROUP AT THIS TIME. OTHERWISE,
DRY AND VFR FLIGHT CONDITIONS BY 15Z SUNDAY.
KMSP...THERE IS AN AREA OF THUNDERSTORMS TO THE NORTHWEST OF KMSP
AS OF 00Z AND IT IS FORECAST TO REACH THE TERMINAL BETWEEN 01Z
AND 03Z SUNDAY. MVFR FLIGHT CONDITIONS AND GUSTY WINDS AROUND
25KTS COULD ACCOMPANY THESE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WITH ITS
SOUTHEASTWARD MOVEMENT. THERE IS 60 PERCENT CONFIDENCE THAT
FOG/LOW CLOUDS WILL DEVELOPMENT AT THE TERMINAL BETWEEN 10Z AND
15Z SUNDAY. IF CLOUDS DO NOT CLEAR OUT, THE FOG/LOW CLOUD
CHANCES WILL BE MUCH LOWER. OTHERWISE, EXPECT WINDS TO BE 10KTS
OR LESS.
/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/
SUN...MVFR 10Z TO 15Z, OTHERWISE VFR. WINDS E TO NE 5-10KTS.
MON...VFR. WINDS SE 5-10KTS.
TUE...VFR. CHC TS OVERNIGHT. WINDS SW 5-15KTS.
MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MN...NONE.
WI...NONE.
DISCUSSION...TDH
AVIATION...WFO MPX/TOP
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