940
FXUS63 KMPX 281802
AFDMPX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
102 PM CDT TUE JUL 28 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- HEAT CONTINUES INTO MIDWEEK WITH CONTINUES HIGHS IN THE 90S.
- HEAVY RAIN LOOKING INCREASINGLY LIKELY THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY.
LOW CONFIDENCE ON WHERE THE HEAVIEST RAIN MAY FALL.
- SMOKY SKIES CONTINUE THROUGH THE WEEK BUT THE CHANCE FOR
SURFACE SMOKE IMPACTS APPEARS LOW.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 1121 AM CDT TUE JUL 28 2026
THE REGION REMAINS ON THE NORTHEASTERN EDGE OF A STRONG UPPER-
LEVEL RIDGE THROUGH WEDNESDAY. THIS WILL SUPPORT HIGHS IN THE LOWER
90S ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA, WITH MIDDLE OR UPPER 90S POSSIBLE
IN PORTIONS OF WESTERN MINNESOTA WEDNESDAY. LOWER DEW POINTS SHOULD
KEEP CONDITIONS LESS OPPRESSIVE THAN EARLIER THIS WEEK. AN
ISOLATED AFTERNOON SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM CANNOT BE RULED OUT
NEAR A WEAK BOUNDARY ACROSS SOUTHWEST MINNESOTA TUESDAY,
SHIFTING TOWARD EAST-CENTRAL MINNESOTA AND NORTHWEST WISCONSIN
WEDNESDAY. COVERAGE SHOULD BE LIMITED, AND WIDESPREAD SEVERE
WEATHER IS NOT EXPECTED. WILDFIRE SMOKE FROM THE PACIFIC
NORTHWEST WILL PERIODICALLY PRODUCE HAZY OR FILTERED SUNSHINE.
MOST OF THIS SMOKE IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN ABOVE THE SURFACE,
LIMITING AIR-QUALITY IMPACTS.
THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT —
A STRONGER DISTURBANCE AND ASSOCIATED SURFACE LOW WILL MOVE
INTO THE UPPER MIDWEST THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. INCREASING SOUTHERLY
FLOW AHEAD OF THIS SYSTEM WILL RETURN DEEPER MOISTURE TO
MINNESOTA AND WISCONSIN, WITH THUNDERSTORMS BECOMING MORE
NUMEROUS FROM WEST TO EAST. SCATTERED STORMS MAY DEVELOP ACROSS
WESTERN MINNESOTA THURSDAY AFTERNOON BEFORE EXPANDING EASTWARD
THURSDAY NIGHT. THE STORM PREDICTION CENTER CURRENTLY HAS A
LEVEL 1 OF 5 RISK FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF
THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. DAMAGING WIND GUSTS APPEAR TO BE
THE PRIMARY SEVERE- WEATHER HAZARD, ESPECIALLY IF STORMS
ORGANIZE INTO ONE OR MORE CLUSTERS. LARGE HAIL CANNOT BE RULED
OUT WITH THE STRONGEST STORMS, BUT LIMITED WIND SHEAR MAY KEEP
THE OVERALL SEVERE THREAT FROM BECOMING WIDESPREAD. HEAVY
RAINFALL MAY BECOME THE MORE WIDESPREAD CONCERN THURSDAY NIGHT
INTO FRIDAY. PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES WILL BE ANOMALOUSLY
HIGH, AND SLOW-MOVING TRAINING STORMS MAY REPEATEDLY IMPACT THE
SAME LOCATIONS. A GOOD DEAL OF UNCERTAINTY STILL EXISTS WITH
THE FAVORED PLACEMENT OF THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY & CORRIDOR OF
HEAVIEST RAIN, ALTHOUGH CURRENT GUIDANCE PLACES THE STRONGEST
SIGNAL FROM IOWA INTO SOUTHEAST MINNESOTA AND SOUTHWEST
WISCONSIN. HIGH-RESOLUTUOIN MODEL GUIDANCE HIGHLIGHTS THE
POTENTIAL FOR RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 3-4" WHEREVER THE MAIN SWATH
OF THUNDERSTORMS OCCURS, & LOCALIZED AMOUNTS NEAR 6" APPEAR
POSSIBLE AS WELL. OUR DRY CONDITIONS OVER THE LAST TWO WEEKS
SHOULD MITIGATE THE FLASH FLOOD THREAT SOMEWHAT, BUT URBAN
FLOODING IS A RISK AS WELL AS SMALL STREAM/CREEK FLOODING RURAL
AREAS.
THE LATE- WEEK SYSTEM SHOULD GRADUALLY MOVE EAST AND SOUTH
SATURDAY. SHOWERS MAY LINGER INTO SATURDAY MORNING, PARTICULARLY
ACROSS WISCONSIN, BEFORE DRIER AIR BECOMES MORE ESTABLISHED.
LESS- ORGANIZED WAVES OF SHOWERS AND STORMS MAY CONTINUE ACROSS
NORTHERN MINNESOTA AND NORTHERN WISCONSIN, BUT SOUTHERN PORTIONS
OF BOTH STATES HAVE A BETTER CHANCE OF REMAINING DRY SUNDAY.
TEMPERATURES SHOULD SETTLE CLOSER TO LATE- JULY NORMALS BEHIND
THE SYSTEM, WITH HIGHS MAINLY IN THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 80S. WARMER
CONDITIONS MAY RETURN EARLY NEXT WEEK AS THE RIDGE BEGINS
EXPANDING EASTWARD AGAIN.
AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY/
ISSUED AT 542 AM CDT TUE JUL 28 2026
NO SIGNIFICANT WEATHER FOR ALL SITES. WINDS WILL BE AT OR BELOW
5 KTS FOR THE MAJORITY OF THE PERIOD, BECOMING MOSTLY S/SE BY
LATE MORNING. MID-HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS STREAM ACROSS THE REGION,
WITH SOME FAIR WEATHER CU EXPECTED DURING THE DAY.
KMSP...NO ADDITIONAL CONCERNS.
/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/
WED PM...VFR, SLIGHT CHC -TSRA/MVFR. WIND SW 5KTS.
THU...VFR, CHC -TSRA/MVFR PM. WIND SW 5KTS.
FRI...MVFR/-SHRA, CHC -TSRA EARLY. WIND SE TO NE 5KTS.
AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z THURSDAY/
ISSUED AT 1259 PM CDT TUE JUL 28 2026
THE REST OF TODAY REMAINS QUIET WITH SCATTERED LOW TO MID-LEVEL CU.
ADDITIONALLY, THERE IS ALSO A BIT OF HAZE ON THE HORIZON DUE
WHICH STEMS FROM SUSPENDED WILDFIRE SMOKE. THIS SMOKE WILL
CONTINUE TO REMAIN SUSPENDED ALOFT THROUGH THE PERIOD BUT AS OF
NOW, DOES NOT LOOK TO IMPACT SURFACE VISIBILITY OR FLIGHT
CATEGORIES. THUS, LEFT ALL SITES WITH SCATTERED CLOUD LEVELS
BETWEEN 10KFT AND 25KFT PREVAILING THROUGH THE TAF. WINDS WILL
REMAIN LIGHT AND VARIABLE THROUGH TONIGHT WITH A SW'LY SHIFT
ACROSS ALL SITES BY TOMORROW AROUND 14/15Z TIMEFRAME.
KMSP...A LOW END CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND STORMS TOMORROW DOES EXIST
FOR TOMORROW AFTERNOON. CONFIDENCE FOR TIMING AND LOCATION WAS TOO
LOW AT THIS TIME TO INCLUDE PROB30 MENTIONS THIS PERIOD.
/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/
THU...VFR, CHC -TSRA/MVFR PM. WIND SW 5KTS.
FRI...MVFR/-SHRA, CHC -TSRA EARLY. WIND SE TO NE 5KTS.
SAT...VFR. WIND N TO NE 5-10KTS.
MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MN...NONE.
WI...NONE.
DISCUSSION...ETA
AVIATION...DUNLEAVY
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