906
FXUS63 KMPX 112047
AFDMPX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
247 PM CST SUN JAN 11 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- WARM TEMPERATURES THROUGH TUESDAY, WITH HIGHS IN THE 40S POSSIBLE
BY TUESDAY.
- A FEW CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION COMING UP, INCLUDING A WINTRY MIX
NORTH OF I-94 MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY AND SNOW POSSIBLE LATER IN
THE WEEK.
- TEMPERATURES COOL DOWN NEXT WEEKEND AND BEYOND WITH HIGHS
STRUGGLING TO REACH THE 20S.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 247 PM CST SUN JAN 11 2026
THE LOW LEVEL CLOUDS ARE FINALLY MOVING OUT OF WESTERN WISCONSIN
THIS AFTERNOON WITH FILTERED SUNSHINE THROUGH HIGHER LEVEL CLOUDS TO
CONTINUE FOR THE REST OF TODAY ACROSS THE AREA. TEMPERATURES
GENERALLY IN THE LOW 20S ALONGSIDE THE SUNSHINE SHOULD HELP WITH
WHATEVER MINOR ACCUMULATIONS/DUSTING OCCURRED FROM THE VERY LIGHT
SNOW OVERNIGHT AND YESTERDAY, WITH FURTHER WARMING TEMPERATURES OVER
THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS FURTHER ERODING THE SNOWPACK. SKY COVER WILL
GENERALLY REMAIN CONFINED TO THE UPPER LEVELS THROUGH MIDDAY
TOMORROW, RESULTING IN MORE SUN TOMORROW MORNING WHICH WILL AID IN
RISING TEMPERATURES. FLOW ALOFT WILL REMAIN NORTHWESTERLY, WITH
LOWER LEVEL WINDS ORIGINATING FROM THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST RESULTING
IN GRADUALLY WARMING AIR IN THE LOWER LEVELS WITH 850MB
TEMPERATURES RISING ABOVE FREEZING TONIGHT AND CONTINUING TOMORROW
AND TUESDAY. A SHORTWAVE WILL BRING A CHANCE FOR SOME LIGHT
PRECIPITATION GENERALLY FAVORING NORTHWESTERN MN INTO NORTHERN WI
MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY, WITH THE THERMAL PROFILE FAVORING A
WINTRY MIX THAT WILL LARGELY DEPEND ON SURFACE TEMPERATURES AS TO
WHAT SHAKES OUT. SOME LIGHT ICING FROM A CHANCE FOR FREEZING RAIN IS
POSSIBLE ALONG THE NORTHERN FRINGES OF THE CWA NORTH OF I-94,
HOWEVER ANY ACCUMULATIONS WILL BE SHORT LIVED AS TEMPERATURES
QUICKLY INCREASE TUESDAY TO MELT ANY LINGERING ICE. TEMPERATURES
ALOFT RETURN TO BELOW FREEZING BY MIDDAY TUESDAY AND CONTINUE TO
DROP AS FLOW BECOMES NORTHERLY ACROSS THE ENTIRE TROPOSPHERE WITH
850MB TEMPERATURES AROUND 20C COLDER ON WEDNESDAY MORNING THAN THEY
WERE 24 HOURS EARLIER ON TUESDAY. A STRENGTHENING SURFACE PRESSURE
GRADIENT AND STRONG WINDS AT 925-850MB COULD ALSO RESULT IN SOME
STRONGER WINDS ON TUESDAY GENERALLY OUT OF THE WEST TO NORTHWEST. AS
SUCH, SOME 90TH PERCENTILE NBM WINDS WERE ADDED TO THE FORECAST
WHICH MAY STILL END UP BEING TOO LOW GIVEN THE ROARING WINDS ALOFT,
BUT IT WILL ULTIMATELY DEPEND ON HOW WELL WE CAN MIX THOSE WINDS
DOWN TO THE SURFACE. A SHORT-TERM/DURATION WIND ADVISORY MAY BE
NEEDED, HOWEVER FOR NOW WE WILL CONTINUE TO MESSAGE THE BLUSTERY
CONDITIONS WITHIN THE FORECAST AND OTHER AVENUES.
THE COOLER TEMPERATURES ALOFT SET THE STAGE FOR OUR NEXT POTENTIAL
ROUND OF SNOWFALL, WHICH WOULD ARRIVE MID TO LATE MORNING THURSDAY
WITH CHANCES CONTINUING INTO THE WEEKEND. A CLOSED UPPER LEVEL LOW
OVER EASTERN CANADA WILL AID A SHORTWAVE TROUGH SLIDING SOUTHWARDS
FROM MANITOBA, WITH SNOWFALL SEEMING LIKELY GIVEN THE COLD THERMAL
PROFILE AND SYNOPTIC SCALE LIFT FROM THE TROUGH. FURTHER PERIODS OF
LIGHT SNOWFALL SEEM LIKELY AS A SERIES OF SHORTWAVES CONTINUE TO
RIDE THE UPPER LEVEL FLOW SOUTHWARDS THROUGH SUNDAY, RESULTING IN A
LONG DURATION OF LIGHT TO MODERATE SNOWFALL WITH 6-12 HOUR GAPS
BETWEEN WAVES ENDING SUNDAY. ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE FAVORS THE PERIOD
FROM LATE THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY AS THE MOST LIKELY TO RESULT IN
LARGER ACCUMULATIONS, WITH THE ECMWF/GFS ENSEMBLES BOTH PRODUCING
ANYWHERE FROM 2-4 INCHES OF 10:1 RATIO SNOWFALL BEGINNING THURSDAY
AND LASTING THROUGH SUNDAY. ACTUAL SNOW RATIOS WILL LIKELY BE HIGHER
DUE TO THE COOLER TEMPERATURES, HOWEVER WINDS COULD ALSO PLAY A ROLE
AS STRONGER WINDS WOULD END UP LOWERING RATIOS DUE TO SMASHING APART
THE LARGER DENDRITES. GIVEN THE LONG DURATION OF SNOWFALL BUT
RELATIVELY LIGHT HOURLY RATES/ACCUMULATIONS, WE MAY END UP NEEDING
SOME SORT OF WINTER WEATHER HEADLINE BUT WILL HAVE TO SEE HOW THE
FORECAST ALIGNS BEFORE MAKING THAT DECISION AS WE HEAD INTO THE
MIDDLE OF THE WEEK.
BEYOND THE TYPICAL 7 DAY FORECAST, THE FLOW ORIGINATING FROM THE
PACIFIC WILL BE DRIVEN SOUTHWARDS RESULTING IN RIDGING OVER THE
WESTERN CONUS, ALLOWING MORE ARCTIC AIR INTO THE UPPER MIDWEST WHICH
WILL HELP KEEP TEMPERATURES MUCH COLDER THAN WE HAVE RECENTLY
EXPERIENCED INTO THE 2ND HALF OF THE MONTH. ENSEMBLES BEYOND THE
17TH/18TH SHOW HIGHS STRUGGLING TO GET OUT OF THE TEENS AND LOWS IN
THE SINGLE DIGITS BOTH ABOVE AND BELOW ZERO IN THE TWIN CITIES
DEPENDING ON THE DAY. THIS SIGNAL HAS BEEN VERY CONSISTENT WITHIN
THE LONGER RANGE GUIDANCE FOR AT LEAST A WEEK NOW, SO THE COLDER
TEMPERATURES SEEM VERY LIKELY TO PERSIST IN THE 2ND HALF OF THE
MONTH. WE WILL HAVE TO SEE WHEN ALL THINGS ARE SAID AND DONE HOW THE
MONTH AS A WHOLE ENDS UP, WITH SOME WARMTH IN THE FIRST HALF BUT
COLD IN THE SECOND HALF.
AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY/
ISSUED AT 1117 AM CST SUN JAN 11 2026
THE IFR/MVFR CIGS HAVE PUSHED INTO WESTERN WI AND WILL ONLY
INFLUENCE RNH/EAU FOR THE PERIOD, WITH SCT012 AT MSP LIKELY TO
DISSIPATE AS MAINLY HIGH CLOUDS REMAIN. MOST SITES BECOME
BKN/SCT200 TO 250 AND REMAIN AS SUCH FOR THE REST OF THE PERIOD
ONCE THE LOW LEVEL CLOUDS PUSH SOUTHEAST. A SUBTLE BOUNDARY WILL
MOVE THROUGH OVERNIGHT WHICH COULD PRODUCE A COUPLE HOURS OF
LLWS, GENERALLY STARTING AT 22Z FOR WESTERN SITES AND END AT 04Z
FOR EASTERN SITES, HOWEVER WINDS MAY NOT BE STRONG ENOUGH ALOFT
TO REACH THE 35KT THRESHOLD TO INCLUDE WITHIN THE TAF. WINDS
WILL SHIFT FROM 240-270 TO 200-230 AND REMAIN AROUND 10KTS
THROUGHOUT.
KMSP...A BRIEF WINDOW OF LLWS IS PRESENT FROM 00-04Z AS THE
BOUNDARY MOVES THROUGH, HOWEVER ELECTED TO OMIT FROM THE TAF AS
WINDS LOOK TO BE BELOW WHAT IS NECESSARY TO REACH THE THRESHOLD.
BESIDES THIS, THE MAIN THING WILL BE THE SCT015 AT THE BEGINNING
OF THE PERIOD MOVING SOUTHEAST WITHIN THE FIRST 6 HOURS OF THE
TAF, FOLLOWED BY VFR HIGH CLOUDS FOR THE REMAINDER.
/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/
TUE...VFR, CHC MVFR/-SHRA EARLY. WIND NW 10-15G25KTS.
WED...VFR, CHC MVFR EARLY. WIND N 10-15KTS.
THU...MVFR/-SN LIKELY, CHANCE IFR/LIFR. WIND S 5-10KTS.
MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MN...NONE.
WI...NONE.
DISCUSSION...TDH
AVIATION...TDH
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