236
FXUS63 KMPX 150529
AFDMPX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
1229 AM CDT MON JUN 15 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- SCATTERED SHOWERS AND A FEW SUB-SEVERE STORMS POSSIBLE TOMORROW
AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
- RAIN SHOWERS LIKELY WEDNESDAY, ENDING EARLY THURSDAY.
- SEASONAL TEMPERATURES IN THE 70S THROUGHOUT THE WEEK.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 308 PM CDT SUN JUN 14 2026
THE PUSH OF DRY AIR FROM THE NORTHWEST HAS RESULTED IN A MARKED
DECREASE IN SATELLITE COVERAGE OF CUMULUS WITH AN EASTWARD PUSH IN
THE CLOUDS EVIDENT VIA VISIBLE IMAGERY THIS AFTERNOON. FURTHER
CUMULUS WILL ONLY LAST FOR A FEW MORE HOURS BEFORE DIMINISHING
COMPLETELY OVERNIGHT, AND AS WE LOSE OUR MIXING WE SHOULD ALSO LOSE
OUR GUSTY WINDS THAT HAVE BEEN PRESENT THROUGHOUT THE DAY. WINDS
WILL TURN WESTERLY OVERNIGHT BUT REMAIN FAIRLY LIGHT, INCREASING TO
5-10MPH TOMORROW AS THEY ONCE AGAIN FAVOR THE NORTHWEST. COOLER
TEMPERATURES WILL BE PRESENT TONIGHT THANKS TO THE CLEAR SKIES AND
LIGHT WINDS, WITH LOWS IN THE UPPER 40S TO LOW 50S ACROSS THE AREA.
AN INCOMING SHORTWAVE WILL BRING CHANCES FOR SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
STORMS TOMORROW LATE AFTERNOON TO EVENING, WITH FORECAST SOUNDINGS
SHOWING MOSTLY ELEVATED INSTABILITY ABOVE THE 7000FT LEVEL. THERE IS
ALSO A LACK OF SURFACE BASED MOISTURE WHICH WOULD NEED TO BE
OVERCOME BEFORE APPRECIABLE PRECIPITATION WOULD REACH THE GROUND,
EVIDENT BY NEAR INVERTED V SOUNDING PROFILES. AS SUCH, THE QPF IS ON
THE LIGHTER SIDE ESPECIALLY COMPARED TO WEDNESDAY, HOWEVER THERE
WILL BE AT LEAST SOME SHOWER AND STORM ACTIVITY TO CONTENT WITH
ESPECIALLY NORTH OF THE TWIN CITIES IN CENTRAL MINNESOTA. THE
FORCING ENDS RATHER QUICKLY AS THE SHORTWAVE PUSHES THROUGH BY EARLY
TUESDAY, WITH ANY LINGERING SHOWERS ALSO DISAPPEARING BY THAT TIME.
SOME OF THE COARSER RESOLUTION GLOBAL MODELS DO KEEP LINGERING
SHOWERS IN WESTERN WI FOR MUCH OF THE DAY ON TUESDAY AS A SURFACE
LOW SPINS UP AS THE SHORTWAVE OCCLUDES OVER THE GREAT LAKES, WITH
THE MAIN QUESTION STILL BEING THE AMOUNT OF MOISTURE AVAILABLE TO
REPLENISH SHOWERS.
WEDNESDAY STILL APPEARS TO BE THE BEST DAY FOR MORE WIDESPREAD
PRECIPITATION AS A STRONGER SHORTWAVE WILL SPIN UP A SURFACE LOW
OVER THE DAKOTAS AS IT ARRIVES DURING THE EARLY MORNING, GRADUALLY
SPREADING EASTWARDS THROUGHOUT THE DAY. SHOWERS SHOULD BE BROAD IN
SCOPE WITH MOST OF THE AREA PICKING UP AT LEAST A QUARTER INCH OF
RAINFALL, WITH THE GENERAL HIGH END BEING UPWARDS OF HALF AN INCH.
THE BEST CHANCE FOR EXCEED THIS AMOUNT WOULD BE WITH THUNDERSTORMS,
WHICH LOOK TO FAVOR SOUTHERN MINNESOTA FOR ANY APPRECIABLE CHANCES
AS SOME INSTABILITY BUILDS IN TOWARDS THE EVENING HOURS. THERE IS
SOME SUBTLE CURVATURE TO THE HODOGRAPHS IN FORECAST SOUNDINGS FROM
THE GFS/NAM ALONG I-90 AS THE INSTABILITY ARRIVES, HOWEVER IT
QUICKLY BECOMES A FLATTER WIND PROFILE AS THE SURFACE LOW MOVES IN
BY THE EVENING WITH AN ANTICYCLONIC PROFILE AFTER 00Z. AS SUCH,
THERE MAY BE A SNEAKY SEVERE WEATHER CHANCE THAT LASTS FOR AN HOUR
OR TWO, BUT SHOULD BE LIMITED TO THE FAR SOUTHERN REACHES OF THE
STATE AND IMPACT WISE WOULD BE ON THE LOWER END OF THE SCALE. FOR
NOW, EXPECT MAINLY SHOWERS FOR MOST OF THE AREA AS WE WAIT TO SEE
SOME CAM GUIDANCE COME INTO PLAY TO RESOLVE THE FINER DETAILS.
BEYOND WEDNESDAY, ANOTHER FRONTAL BOUNDARY/SHORTWAVE LOOKS TO SURGE
SOUTH FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY THAT COULD PRODUCE SOME ISOLATED SHOWERS,
BUT THIS CONTINUES TO LOOK VERY DISORGANIZED WITHIN THE GUIDANCE
WITH NO SOLID CONSENSUS. AS SUCH, WHILE THERE MAY BE SHOWERS, THERE
ISN'T MUCH ELSE TO DISCUSS AT THE 5-7 DAY TIME RANGE FOR NOW.
TEMPERATURE WISE, WE ARE LOOKING TO REMAIN IN THE 70S FOR HIGHS AND
50S FOR LOWS THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD, WITH A FAVORING FOR FURTHER
BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES IN THE 8-14 DAY CPC OUTLOOKS TOWARDS THE
END OF THE MONTH.
AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z TUESDAY/
ISSUED AT 1229 AM CDT MON JUN 15 2026
VFR CONDITION OVERNIGHT WITH CLEAR SKIES TO HIGH VFR CLOUDS.
LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS WILL PICK UP FROM THE WEST TODAY
GUSTING UP TO AROUND 20 KNOTS AHEAD OF OUR RAIN CHANCES. WE WILL
SEE ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS ACROSS CENTRAL MINNESOTA THIS
AFTERNOON SLOWLY SPREADING SOUTH INTO THE EVENING. SOME
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE, BUT CONFIDENCE IN
THUNDERSTORMS AT ANY ONE TAF SITE WAS NOT HIGH ENOUGH FOR
INCLUSION IN THE TAF YET. AS THE RAIN MOVES THROUGH PERIODS OF
MVFR ARE EXPECTED.
KMSP...THE MAIN IMPACT FOR THIS PERIOD CONTINUES TO BE THE
CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IN THE LATE EVENING/EARLY
OVERNIGHT. MAINLY MVFR IMPACTS EXPECTED AS THESE RAIN CHANCES
COME THROUGH. AS WE GET A BETTER IDEA OF TIMING IN FUTURE TAFS
TEMPO WILL LIKELY BE ADDED. AS IT IS EXPECTED TO BE SCATTERED IN
NATURE PREVAILING RAIN DOES NOT LOOK LIKELY.
/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/
TUE...VFR. WIND NW 10-15KTS.
WED...MVFR/SHRA LIKELY, CHC -TSRA/IFR. WIND SE 5-10KTS.
THU...MVFR/-SHRA EARLY, THEN VFR. WIND NW 5-10KTS.
MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MN...NONE.
WI...NONE.
DISCUSSION...TDH
AVIATION...NDC
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