721
FXUS63 KMPX 090521
AFDMPX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
1221 AM CDT THU JUL 9 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- ADDITIONAL THUNDERSTORMS ARE FORECAST THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING ACROSS SOUTHERN MINNESOTA AND WESTERN WISCONSIN.
SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE IN THESE AREAS. THE PRIMARY
CONCERN IS DAMAGING WINDS.
- CHANCES FOR ADDITIONAL RAINFALL AFTER TODAY ARE FEW AND FAR
BETWEEN, WITH TEMPERATURES HEATING UP INTO THE 90S THIS
WEEKEND AND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 250 PM CDT WED JUL 8 2026
LET'S BEGIN! REGIONAL RADAR HIGHLIGHTS DECAYING SHOWERS ALONG A
QUASI-STATIONARY BOUNDARY DRAPED ACROSS SOUTHERN MINNESOTA AND INTO
WEST-CENTRAL WISCONSIN. THIS BOUNDARY WILL BE THE CATALYST FOR
ADDITIONAL THUNDERSTORM DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING THAT I'LL
TOUCH ON LATER. THE WINNER FROM LAST NIGHT'S RAINFALL WAS CENTRAL MN
WHERE 2 TO 4" FELL WITH LESSER AMOUNTS ACROSS SOUTH-CENTRAL MN, THE
TWIN CITIES METRO, AND WESTERN WI. FAST FORWARDING TO CURRENT TIME,
OVERCAST SKIES HAVE LIMITED TEMPERATURES TO THE 70S WITH LIGHT WINDS
PRESENT. THIS HAS MADE FOR A RATHER GLOOMY AND DAMP DAY ACROSS THE
REGION.
THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH TONIGHT... OUR ATTENTION TURNS BACK TO THE
STALLED FRONTAL BOUNDARY DRAPED ACROSS SOUTHERN MN. INSTABILITY WILL
BUILD IN ALONG AND AHEAD OF THIS BOUNDARY THIS AFTERNOON. FORECAST
SOUNDINGS ALONG I-90 PAINT 2000+ MLCAPE AND SUFFICIENT LAPSE RATES
GIVEN THE BETTER ATMOSPHERIC RECOVERY. THE LIMITING FACTOR WILL THE
LACK OF BETTER LOW LEVEL WIND SHEAR. THIS SHOULDN'T PREVENT SEVERE
WEATHER BUT IT'LL LIMIT HOW IMPACTFUL OR THE HIGHER END THREATS.
FORECAST SOUNDINGS ARE SUPPORTIVE OF CLUSTERS OR MULTI-CELLUAR
STORMS THAT COULD INCLUDE AN EMBEDDED SUPERCELL-TYPE STRUCTURE. A
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR PORTIONS OF S MN AND WC
WI THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING TO ADDRESS THE POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE.
HOWEVER, THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY'S POSITION ALONG OR JUST NORTH OF I-90
WILL LIMIT THE POTENTIAL IMPACTS TO MPX'S CWA. STORMS INITIATE MID-
LATE AFTERNOON IN SC AND SE MN ALONG THE I-90 CORRIDOR. AS THE
STORMS INTENSIFY THEY'LL LIKELY MOVE DOWNSTREAM TO ARX AND DMX'S CWA
IN N IA/SE MN SO THE WINDOW FOR SEVERE WEATHER IS MOSTLY CLOSED, BUT
NON-ZERO. THE PRIMARY CONCERNS WILL BE DAMAGING WINDS AND MAYBE A
BRIEF TORNADO YET AGAIN THE BEST CHANCE OF SEVERE EXISTS DOWN STREAM
GIVEN THE CURRENT POSITION OF THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY. HEAVY RAINFALL
IS ALSO POSSIBLE ALONG I-90 BUT THE STORM MOTION WILL LIMIT THE
POTENTIAL FOR ANY SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL AMOUNTS.
THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY... THE WINDS OF CHANGE BEGIN TO USHER IN A
PATTERN CHANGE. BROAD TROUGHING OVER THE GULF OF ALASKA WILL BEGIN
TO DIG INTO THE PACIFIC NW AND OFF THE WEST COAST. THIS CAUSES OUR
MID AND UPPER LEVEL PATTERN TO AMPLIFY IN RESPONSE TO THE WESTERN
TROUGHING. THE RIDGE BEGINS BUILDING IN OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS AND
MOUNTAIN WEST FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY. THIS WILL USHER IN A LESS
ACTIVE, MUCH WARMER PATTERN FOR THE WEEKEND AND INTO NEXT WEEK.
SUNDAY THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK... AN IMPRESSIVE 600DM RIDGE
WILL BECOME CENTERED OVER SOUTHERN MINNESOTA. I AM OPTING TO LEAN
ONTO THE AIFS & ECMWF SUITE MORE THAN THE GEFS FOR THE UPCOMING WARM
UP GIVEN THE CONSISTENCY WITH BOTH THE DETERMINISTIC EURO AND THE
AIFS + THEIR ENSEMBLES. THERE IS STILL SOME UNCERTAINTY FOR THE
EXACT INTENSITY AND PLACEMENT, BUT A 597 TO 600DM RIDGE TYPICALLY
MEANS WE'LL HAVE SOME IMPRESSIVE HEAT IN PLACE SUNDAY INTO THE
MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. THIS IS A FAIRLY STAND OUT PATTERN THAT IS NOT
TYPICAL FOR THIS PORTION OF THE CONUS. THE EPS HAS A +3 SIGMA
ANOMALY WITH RESPECT TO THE 500MB RIDGE. THAT'S ABOUT AS MUCH OF AN
OUTLIER EVENT AS YOU CAN GET. THAT ALSO MEANS THAT OUR MACHINE
LEARNING GUIDE WILL LIKELY BE SLIGHTLY COOLER WITH RESPECT TO
SURFACE TEMPS GIVEN THIS FALLS OUT OF MOST HISTORICAL CASES IT WOULD
USE TO TRAIN ON. WILL IT BE A DRY HEAT? WELL FOR SOME IT WILL BE A
DRIER HEAT THAN WE PREVIOUSLY HAD, BUT SURFACE DEW POINTS STILL END
UP IN THE MID TO UPPER 60S EACH DAY. THIS IS FAR BETTER THAN IF THEY
WERE IN THE MID TO UPPER 70S. IT IS TOO EARLY TO SAY IF WE'LL HAVE
ANY EXTREME HEAT PRODUCTS, BUT THE LACK OF HIGHER HUMIDITY/TD'S
MEANS WE'LL RELY MORE SO ON ACTUAL AIR TEMPS. IT WILL ALSO LIMIT OUR
RAIN/STORM CHANCES AS THE JET WILL BE DIRECTED UP AND OVER THE
RIDGE. ANY RIDGE RIDER MCS SHOULD BE WELL INTO CANADA. THE
METEOROLOGY WOULD SUPPORT POTENTIAL HIGHS IN THE MID TO UPPER 90S
SUNDAY-TUESDAY TIME FRAME... WITH A CHANCE OF 100 DEGREES NOT OUT OF
THE QUESTION DEPENDING ON HOW THINGS PAN OUT. EPS HAS ~10% CHANCE
MONDAY & TUESDAY ACROSS I-90 AND INTO THE TWIN CITIES METRO SO IT'S
NOT A GREAT CHANCE, BUT THERE IS A CHANCE. BPH OUT.
AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z FRIDAY/
ISSUED AT 1215 AM CDT THU JUL 9 2026
SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS SOME PERSISTENT LOWER-MID LEVEL CLOUD
COVER THAT HAS BEEN HOVERING FROM 025-040 IN AN AREA FROM MSP TO
RWF AND FARTHER SOUTH, AND THERE IS LITTLE REASON TO NOT BELIEVE
THAT IT WILL PERSIST INTO A GOOD PORTION OF THE NIGHT. GUIDANCE
HAS BACKTRACKED ON HOW AGGRESSIVE THE LOWERING OF CIGS/VIS WILL
BE DURING THE FIRST 6-8 HOURS OF THE PERIOD, THUS HAVE WENT WITH
A MORE CONSERVATIVE APPROACH KEEPING MOST SITES AT VFR OR HIGH
MVFR WITH THE MAIN EXCEPTION BEING MKT. WINDS WILL BE LIGHT AND
VARIABLE OVERNIGHT AT OR BELOW 3KTS, WHICH SHOULD ALLOW
RADIATION FOG WHEN COUPLED WITH THE RAIN SEEN TODAY. WE MAY END
NEEDING TO CHASE SOME OBSERVATIONS WITH AMDS AS WE SEE HOW THE
CLOUD COVER AFFECTS THE LOWER LEVEL FOG.
KMSP...ELECTED TO KEEP THINGS BORDERLINE MVFR/VFR AFTER 09Z AS
GUIDANCE WAS STILL RELATIVELY BULLISH ON BRINGING AT LEAST SOME
LOWERING VSBY THIS MORNING, HOWEVER KEPT IT TO 3KFT CIGS AND
6SM.
/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/
SAT...VFR. WIND S 5-10KTS.
SUN...VFR. WIND SW 5-10KTS.
MON...VFR. WIND SW 5-10KTS.
MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MN...NONE.
WI...NONE.
DISCUSSION...BPH
AVIATION...TDH
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