572
FXUS63 KMPX 111054
AFDMPX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
554 AM CDT SUN OCT 11 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- UNSEASONABLE WARMTH CONTINUES INTO EARLY THIS WEEK BEFORE A
COLD FRONT BRINGS TEMPERATURES BACK TO NEAR NORMAL TUESDAY.
- THE NEXT CHANCE FOR WIDESPREAD PRECIP ARRIVES THURSDAY INTO
FRIDAY.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 240 AM CDT SUN OCT 11 2026
EXTREMELY ABNORMAL HEAT SET RECORDS AT 2 OF OUR CLIMATE SITES TODAY
(MSP AND STC BOTH WITH 90) AND LOOKS TO STICK AROUND THROUGH AT
LEAST SUNDAY. THE TEMPERATURE AT MSP WHILE THIS AFD IS BEING WRITTEN
IS CURRENTLY 75. THE NORMAL HIGH FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR IS 59...
WINDS ARE STILL ALSO QUITE BREEZY OUT OF THE SOUTH WITH A FEW AREAS
SEEING GUSTS REACH 25-30 MPH. THESE WINDS WILL LESSEN PROGRESSING
THROUGH SUNDAY AS THE SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT RELAXES. THOUGH,
GUSTS OF 20-25 MPH ARE POSSIBLE OVER THE EASTERN HALF OF THE CWA.
HIGHS WILL CLIMB WELL INTO THE 80S FOR MOST OF THE AREA AND ALL 3 OF
OUR CLIMATE SITES (MSP, STC, AND EAU) HAVE A HIGH CHANCE OF SETTING
DAILY RECORDS. HAVE BLENDED IN SOME NBM 90TH PERCENTILE INTO THE NBM
TO BUMP UP HIGHS TODAY, RESULTING IN MSP FORECAST TO REACH 87 AND
STC AND EAU REACHING 85. CLOUDS WILL ALSO BE INCREASING TODAY AS A
COLD FRONT SLOWLY NEARS FROM THE WEST. THIS FRONT SHOULD REACH
WESTERN MN TONIGHT, CAUSING LOWS TO DIP INTO THE 50S. FARTHER EAST,
LOWS WILL REMAIN STUFFY IN THE MID TO UPPER 60S. LARGE UNCERTAINTY
EXISTS FOR MONDAY'S TEMPERATURES AS IT REMAINS A QUESTION OF HOW FAR
EAST THE COLD FRONT PROGRESSES. SLOWER FRONTAL MOVEMENT WILL MEAN
THAT OUR HIGHS REMAIN WARM (AT LEAST UPPER 70S) FOR THE SOUTHERN AND
EASTERN HALVES OF THE CWA. BUT, A FASTER FRONT WILL MEAN THE QUICKER
ARRIVAL OF COOLER AIR, KEEPING HIGHS MORE IN THE 60S TO MID 70S.
EITHER WAY, IT LOOKS LIKE THERE WILL BE A STRONG NORTHWEST TO
SOUTHEAST TEMPERATURE GRADIENT ACROSS OUR REGION MONDAY. IT'S JUST A
MATTER OF WHERE IT SETS UP.
CHANCES FOR RAIN WILL ALSO INCREASE MONDAY AFTERNOON INTO THE
EVENING AS SYNOPTIC LIFT INCREASES OVER THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY. THE
NORTHERN HALVES OF MN AND WI CURRENTLY ARE THE MOST LIKELY TO SEE
WIDESPREAD RAINFALL. BUT, LONGER RANGE CAMS DO HINT AT MORE
SCATTERED TO ISOLATED ACTIVITY REACHING DOWN INTO CENTRAL MN AND
WESTERN WI. SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL ISN'T EXPECTED (PERHAPS UP TO A
0.25") BUT A FEW THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE GIVEN THE NON-ZERO CAPE.
THE FRONT MOVES COMPLETELY EAST OF OUR REGION MONDAY NIGHT, COOLING
US DOWN AND DRYING US OUT INTO MID-WEEK. HIGHS TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY
ARE FORECAST IN THE UPPER 50S TO MID 60S WHILE LOWS WILL LARGELY BE
IN THE 40S.
FORECAST MODELS SHOW OUR NEXT CHANCE OF RAIN BEING ASSOCIATED WITH A
TROUGH THAT TURNS INTO A CUTOFF LOW OVER THE ROCKIES DURING THE
TUESDAY-WEDNESDAY TIME FRAME. THIS FEATURE IS FORECAST TO SLOWLY
MOVE EAST INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS BEFORE EVENTUALLY GETTING PICKED
UP BY A TROUGH FROM THE NORTHERN JETSTREAM. HOW QUICKLY THE CUTOFF
LOW ADVANCES EAST AND WHERE IT GETS ABSORBED BY THE NORTHERN
JETSTREAM REMAINS IN QUESTION. AS OF NOW, THE ENERGY LOOKS TO PASS
THROUGH THE UPPER MIDWEST AROUND THURSDAY, WHICH WOULD BRING AT
LEAST A DECENT CHANCE OF RAIN TO MUCH OF OUR CWA. HOWEVER, NBM'S
POPS HAVE TRENDED SLIGHTLY LESS, LIKELY OWING TO MODEL SPREAD
REGARDING THE CUTOFF LOW'S SPEED AND TIMING/PLACEMENT OF PHASING
INTO THE NORTHERN STREAM. WE WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR THESE FEATURES
AS THEY COULD PUT A DAMPER ON THE REGION. FOR FRIDAY INTO NEXT
WEEKEND, THERE IS HIGH CONFIDENCE IN DRY WEATHER WHILE THERE IS LOW
CONFIDENCE IN HOW TEMPERATURES EVOLVE. IF THE CUTOFF LOW AND
NORTHERN STREAM TROUGH PHASE SIMILAR TO THE GFS AND GEM, AMPLIFIED
TROUGHING WOULD DEVELOP OVER THE GREAT LAKES. THIS WOULD BRING
STRONG NORTHERLY FLOW AND CAA INTO THE UPPER MIDWEST FRIDAY THROUGH
SUNDAY. WE'LL HAVE TO WE SEE IF OUR FIRST REAL COLD SNAP OF THIS
FALL OCCURS AT THE END OF THIS WEEK OR WE REMAIN MILDER.
AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY/
ISSUED AT 554 AM CDT SUN OCT 11 2026
CLEAR SKY VFR TO START THE DAY WITH SOME INCREASING HIGH CLOUD
COVER LATER IN THIS PERIOD. STILL SEEING A SIGNAL FOR SOME LLWS
EARLY THIS MORNING, BUT THAT SHOULD COME TO AN QUICKLY AROUND
SUNRISE. WINDS WILL GENERALLY BE FROM THE SOUTH AHEAD OF A
FRONTAL PASSAGE SHIFTING WINDS IN A NORTHERLY DIRECTION LATE IN
THE PERIOD.
KMSP...NO ADDITIONAL CONCERNS.
/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/
MON PM...VFR. CHC -SHRA/MVFR. WIND N 5-10 KTS.
TUE...VFR. WIND NW 5-10 KTS.
WED...VFR. WIND NE 5-10 KTS.
MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MN...NONE.
WI...NONE.
DISCUSSION...CTG
AVIATION...NDC
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.
Main Text Page