693
FXUS63 KMPX 312322
AFDMPX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
622 PM CDT FRI JUL 31 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- RAIN WILL FINALLY START DEPARTING THE AREA TONIGHT. MAXIMUM
RAINFALL TOTALS AROUND 7 INCHES LIKELY AROUND THE CITY OF LE
SUEUR.
- PLEASANT WEEKEND AHEAD, WITH COMFORTABLE SUMMER TEMPERATURES
AND MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES AND DEWPOINTS IN THE 50S.
- NEXT CHANCE FOR STORMS COMES MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 303 PM CDT FRI JUL 31 2026
IF I SHOWED YOU THE CURRENT WATER VAPOR SATELLITE IMAGERY AND ASKED
YOU WHAT DATE YOU THOUGHT THIS WAS FROM, I WOULD NOT BLAME YOU IF
YOU SAID NOVEMBER. THERE IS A NICE BAROCLINIC LEAF ACROSS THE UPPER
MS VALLEY INTO THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES AND A DRY SLOT MOVING ACROSS
NORTHEAST KS INTO SOUTHEAST MN. ALTHOUGH TODAY HAS BEEN A WASHOUT
AND A RATHER CRUMMY WEATHER DAY, WE HAVEN'T HEARD TOO MANY
COMPLAINTS COMING OUT OF A 2 WEEK STRETCH WHERE MOST PLACES SAW LESS
THAN A QUARTER OF AN INCH OF RAIN WITH HIGHS FREQUENTLY TOPPING OUT
IN THE 90S. WE'VE SEEN SOME IMPRESSIVE RAINFALL TOTALS TODAY AND
HAVE SEEN THE GAUGES TO BACKUP THE MRMS RAINFALL ESTIMATE BULLSEYE
OF 6-8" OF RAIN DOWN AROUND ST. PETER AND LE SUEUR. DESPITE SOME
RATHER LARGER RAINFALL NUMBERS, THIS RAIN HAS COME OVER A PERIOD OF
OF 12 HOURS, NOT IN JUST 3 OR 4 HOURS, WHICH MEANS IMPACTS FROM THIS
RAINFALL (IN TERMS OF FLOODING) HAVE BEEN FAIRLY MINIMAL. EVEN
THOUGH THIS HEAVY RAINFALL FELL ALMOST ENTIRELY WITHIN THE MN RIVER
BASIN, RISES ALONG THE RIVER ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN WITHIN THE
STREAM BANKS. NO MATTER HOW YOU SLICE IT, THIS WAS AN INCREDIBLY
BENEFICIAL RAIN THAT HAS COME WITH VERY FEW NEGATIVE IMPACTS.
FOR THE WEEKEND, WE WILL NOT ACCEPT ANY COMPLAINTS ABOUT THE
WEATHER! WE'LL HAVE RISING HEIGHTS AND SUBSIDENCE, WHICH MEANS
MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES WITH TEMEPRATURES NEAR NORMAL AND DEWPOINTS
RETREATING INTO THE 50S AND 60S. THERE HAS BEEN SOME CONCERN ABOUT
SMOKY SKIES RETURNING, BUT VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY THIS AFTERNOON
LOOKS PRETTY CLEAN FROM THE DAKOTAS BACK ACROSS WYOMING AND MONTANA,
SO EVEN CHANCES FOR ELEVATED SMOKE LOOK PRETTY LIMITED THIS WEEKEND
AS WELL. GET OUT THERE AND ENJOY THE OUTDOORS THIS WEEKEND, WE'RE
ONLY 54 DAYS AWAY FROM THE EARLIEST SNOWFALL ON RECORD HERE IN THE
TWIN CITIES! (SEPTEMBER 24, 1985)
WE'LL START NEXT WEEK WITH A COLD FRONT DROPPING ACROSS THE AREA
MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING. RIGHT NOW, WE LOOK TO MISS-
TIME THIS FRONT. WE'LL BE GETTING THE LEFTOVERS OF WHATEVER HAPPENS
IN THE DAKOTAS AND NORTHWEST MN MONDAY AFTERNOON LATE MONDAY NIGHT
IN CENTRAL/WESTERN MN, WHILE THE FRONT SHOULD BE FAR ENOUGH ALONG
TUESDAY AFTERNOON TO WHERE WE'LL BE TOO FAR WEST TO SEE ANY STORMS
THAT FORM WITH DAYTIME HEATING ON TUESDAY. BEHIND THIS FRONT, WE'LL
GET ANOTHER HIT OF PLEASANT CANADIAN AIR FOR THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.
AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY/
ISSUED AT 619 PM CDT FRI JUL 31 2026
RADAR HAS SHOWN SIGNIFICANT WEAKENING OF PRECIPITATION ECHOES
FROM 22-00Z WITH MOST SITES EXPECTED TO BE MOSTLY DRY TO START
AND THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD, WITH EAU/RNH HAVING THE BEST CHANCE
FOR A BIT OF -SHRA UNTIL 02Z. WE CONTINUE TO DRY OUT AFTER 02Z
WITH CIGS LIFTING AND EVENTUALLY BECOMING SCT/FEW 250 AFTER
12-15Z. WINDS COULD PRODUCE A FEW 20KT GUSTS THROUGH 02Z,
FALLING BACK AS THE PRECIPITATION WEAKENS, WITH GUSTS UP TO
20KTS RESUMING AFTER 17-18Z AT AROUND 360. VFR IS GENERALLY
EXPECTED FOR ALL SITES, ESPECIALLY AFTER 02Z.
KMSP...KEPT THE TAF DRY ALTHOUGH SOME VERY LIGHT -SHRA REMAINS
POSSIBLE THROUGH AROUND 02Z, ALTHOUGH IT MAY END UP AS MORE OF A
MIST.
/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/
SUN...VFR. WIND SE 5KTS.
MON...VFR. WIND S 5-10KTS.
TUE...VFR, CHC PM -TSRA/MVFR. WIND SW TO NW 5-10KTS.
MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MN...NONE.
WI...NONE.
DISCUSSION...STRUS
AVIATION...TDH
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