095
FXUS63 KMPX 131800
AFDMPX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
100 PM CDT TUE OCT 13 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- SOUTHERN MN INTO WEST-CENTRAL WI WILL SEE THE NEXT CHANCE OF
RAIN DURING THURSDAY AS A SYSTEM PASSES TO OUR SOUTH.
- OUR FIRST SHOT AT WIDESPREAD SUB-FREEZING TEMPERATURES IS
POSSIBLE SATURDAY MORNING.
- ABOVE-NORMAL TEMPERATURES RETURN TO START NEXT WEEK.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 224 AM CDT TUE OCT 13 2026
OUR ENTIRE CWA WILL BE MUCH COOLER TODAY AS POST-COLD FRONTAL
AIR CONTINUES TO PUSH EAST INTO WI. LOW STRATUS WILL ALSO
CHARACTERIZE MOST OF TODAY, LIMITING DAYTIME HEATING. HIGHS
TODAY WILL ONLY REACH THE LOW TO MID 50S ACROSS WESTERN AND
CENTRAL MN WHILE AREAS TO THE SOUTH AND EAST WILL SEE LOW TO MID
60S. THE STRATUS WILL BEGIN TO BREAK APART AS WE PROGRESS
THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL BE CHILLY FOR WESTERN
AND CENTRAL MN WITH MID TO UPPER 30S EXPECTED. TO THE AREAS
SOUTH AND EAST, LOW TO MID 40S ARE FORECAST. TEMPERATURES WILL
STABILIZE WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY WITH HIGHS IN THE MID 50S TO
LOWER 60S. THE CHILLY OVERNIGHT LOWS OF MID TO UPPER 30S WILL BE
MORE WIDESPREAD OVER THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE CWA WEDNESDAY
NIGHT.
OUR NEXT OPPORTUNITY FOR RAIN ARRIVES DURING THURSDAY MORNING AS
A CUTOFF LOW OVER THE CENTRAL ROCKIES MOVES NORTHEAST INTO THE
CENTRAL PLAINS. THE RAIN SHIELD NORTH OF THE LOW'S WARM FRONT
WILL SPREAD NORTHEAST INTO SOUTHERN MN AND WEST-CENTRAL WI
DURING THURSDAY. MEANWHILE, AN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH COMING OUT OF
THE WESTERN CANADIAN PRAIRIES WITHIN THE NORTHERN JETSTREAM WILL
DIG SOUTHEAST INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS. FORECAST MODELS SHOW
THE CUTOFF LOW AND TROUGH EVENTUALLY PHASING TOGETHER, BUT
LIKELY NOT UNTIL REACHING THE LOWER GREAT LAKES REGION. THUS,
THE ODDS OF WESTERN AND CENTRAL MN RECEIVING RAINFALL THURSDAY
LOOK VERY LOW. OVERALL, PLACES THAT DO RECEIVE RAIN SHOULDN'T
EXPECT A SOAKER, BUT 0.25" TO PERHAPS 0.5" IS POSSIBLE. AFTER
THE TROUGH MOVES EAST, IT IS FORECAST TO AMPLIFY INTO THE OHIO
VALLEY. IN TURN, THIS WILL SET UP NORTHERLY FLOW OVER THE UPPER
MIDWEST BRINGING A BRIEF COLD SPELL TO END THE WORK WEEK. LOW TO
MID 50S HIGHS ARE FORECAST FRIDAY, BUT MORE IMPORTANTLY MOST OF
THE CWA COULD SEE SUB-FREEZING LOWS FRIDAY NIGHT. THE POTENTIAL
FOR A HARD FREEZE WILL NEED TO BE MONITORED, ESPECIALLY BY
THOSE WITH SENSITIVE VEGETATION OUTSIDE.
GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THAT THE UPPER-LEVEL PATTERN WILL REMAIN
PROGRESSIVE AS LARGE-SCALE RIDGING MOVES EAST INTO THE NORTH-
CENTRAL CONUS, KICKING THE TROUGH EAST ALSO. TEMPERATURES WILL
REBOUND STARTING SATURDAY WITH MID TO UPPER 60S (AND POSSIBLY
EVEN SOME LOW 70S) POSSIBLE BY SUNDAY. LONG-RANGE GUIDANCE
FAVORS RIDGING ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS TO CONTINUE INTO MID-
NEXT WEEK, GREATLY LIMITING RAIN CHANCES AND KEEPING
TEMPERATURES ABOVE NORMAL.
AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z THURSDAY/
ISSUED AT 1253 PM CDT TUE OCT 13 2026
MVFR STRATUS CONTINUES TO RESIDE ACROSS ALL TAF SITES AT
INITIALIZATION, THOUGH PARTIAL CLEARING PER VISIBLE SATELLITE
IMAGERY LOOKS TO BE MOVING IN FROM EASTERN SD INTO SW MN. THAT
SAID, STRATUS IS EXPECTED TO RETURN LATER THIS EVENING AND
REMAIN ACROSS THE AREA THIS EVENING THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT
PERIOD, INCLUDING RETURNING TO MVFR AFTER CEILINGS TO RISE TO
VFR LEVELS LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO THIS EVENING. MVFR STRATUS
WILL THEN PERSIST THROUGH SUNRISE WEDNESDAY MORNING FOLLOWED BY
PARTIAL CLEARING GOING INTO THE AFTERNOON HOURS. WINDS WILL
CONTINUE FROM THE NW IN THE 5-10KT RANGE THROUGH THIS EVENING
THEN BECOME LIGHT/VARIABLE OVERNIGHT THRU SUNRISE.
KMSP...CEILINGS WILL REMAIN BETWEEN 2-3 KFT THROUGH LATE THIS
AFTERNOON, THEN ARE EXPECTED TO BARELY RISE OVER THAT LEVEL THIS
EVENING INTO THE EARLY OVERNIGHT HOURS BEFORE FALLING BACK TO
MVFR LEVELS OVERNIGHT THROUGH LATE WEDNESDAY MORNING. IT DOES
NOT APPEAR TO BE UNTIL WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON THAT SKIES WILL
PARTIALLY CLEAR OUT TO ALLOW FOR VFR CONDITIONS TO RETURN. WINDS
WILL BE STRAIGHT DOWN THE 30S INTO THIS EVENING, THEN SLOWLY
VEER TO A N DIRECTION OVERNIGHT THROUGH MOST OF WEDNESDAY.
SPEEDS THROUGHOUT WILL RANGE 5-10KTS.
/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/
THU...CHC MVFR/-SHRA. WIND LGT & VRBL BCMG NW 8-12 KTS.
FRI...CHC MVFR CIGS EARLY. WIND NW 15-20G25-30KTS.
SAT...VFR. WIND 10KTS INCREASING TO 15G25KTS.
MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MN...NONE.
WI...NONE.
DISCUSSION...CTG
AVIATION...JPC
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