549
FXUS63 KMPX 081916
AFDMPX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
116 PM CST SUN FEB 8 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- WARMER MONDAY, WITH INCREASING POTENTIAL FOR A ROUND OF LIGHT
MIXED PRECIPITATION ACROSS CENTRAL MN IN THE EVENING.
- ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES PERSIST THROUGH NEXT WEEKEND. HIGHS
GENERALLY ABOVE FREEZING IN THE UPPER 30S TO LOW 40S EACH DAY.
- MOST OF THE UPCOMING WEEK WILL BE DRY, HOWEVER WE ARE
MONITORING LIGHT SNOW CHANCES ON THURSDAY.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 115 PM CST SUN FEB 8 2026
EARLY AFTERNOON SATELLITE REVEALS CLEAR SKIES OVER MUCH OF CENTRAL
AND SOUTHERN MN. BLANKET STRATUS REMAINS OVER WESTERN WI, HOWEVER
THE BACK EDGE OF THE STRATUS IS QUICKLY ERODING IN RESPONSE TO UPPER
RIDGING SPREADING EAST. HAVE TRENDED THE NEAR TERM SKY GRIDS IN A
MUCH MORE OPTIMISTIC DIRECTION, WITH MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES FOR MUCH OF
THE FORECAST AREA HEADING INTO THIS EVENING, FOLLOWED BY THE ARRIVAL
OF HIGH CLOUDS FROM THE WEST OVERNIGHT. OUR TEMPERATURE FORECAST
APPEARS LARGELY ON TRACK, AS CONTINUED SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW AND SUNNY
SKIES WARM TEMPERATURES INTO THE MID 30S ACROSS MANY OF OUR MN
COUNTIES. THE WARMEST TEMPERATURES WILL BE ALONG AND SOUTHWEST OF
THE MINNESOTA RIVER, WHERE A FEW OBSERVATIONS IN THE LOWER 40S ARE
POSSIBLE. ON THE FLIP SIDE, TEMPERATURES LIKELY REMAIN A FEW DEGREES
SHY OF THE FREEZING MARK ACROSS WESTERN WI DUE TO THE LINGERING
STRATUS.
GOES WATER VAPOR IMAGERY GIVES US A LOOK AT THE NEXT INFLUENCER OF
OUR WEATHER. A DEVELOPING CLIPPER DEPICTED BY A BROAD REGION OF
ASCENT IS CAPTURED OVER THE SOUTHERN PROVINCES. FORECAST GUIDANCE
REMAINS IN PRETTY GOOD AGREEMENT THAT THIS CLIPPER WILL CONTINUE DUE
EAST THROUGH MONDAY, BEFORE EVENTUALLY TAKING A SOUTHEASTERLY TURN
AND DIVING INTO THE EASTERN GREAT LAKE TUESDAY. OUR FORECAST AREA
WILL REMAIN POSITIONED IN THE WARM SECTOR SOUTH OF THE MAIN CLIPPER,
WHICH IS LIKELY GOING TO YIELD THE WARMEST DAY OF THE WORK WEEK.
WARM AIR ADVECTION IS REPRESENTED BY AN AXIS OF 925MB T'S IN THE 5-
10C RANGE CORRELATES TO AFTERNOON HIGHS IN THE UPPER 40S TO LOWER
50S ACROSS SOUTHWESTERN MN. THERE REMAINS SOME SPREAD IN HOW FAR
NORTH THE MID-LEVEL BAROCLINIC ZONE WILL LIFT, SO OUR FORECAST
FEATURES A NOTABLE SPREAD IN THE HIGHS FROM SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST:
FAIRMONT...52, MINNEAPOLIS...42, LADYSMITH...38. A TRAILING IMPULSE
WITHIN ZONAL FLOW ALOFT IS FORECAST TO FORCE A SECONDARY SURFACE LOW
NEAR THE SD/MN/IA TRIPLE POINT TOMORROW AFTERNOON. THERE IS GROWING
CONFIDENCE THAT WE'LL SEE A DEFORMATION BAND OF LIGHT PRECIPITATION
DEVELOP NORTH OF THE MID-LEVEL BAROCLINIC ZONE ACROSS CENTRAL MN.
SIMILAR TO YESTERDAY, THE NBM CONTINUES TO UNDERCUT POPS ASSOCIATED
WITH THE POTENTIAL PRECIPITATION BAND. CONVERSELY, VARIOUS FORECAST
SOUNDINGS DEPICT A FEW HOURS OF DEEP SATURATION THROUGH THE COLUMN
IN TANDEM WITH MODEST, BUT PERSISTENT OMEGA FORCING THROUGHOUT THE
MID TO UPPER LEVELS. WE HAVE COLLABORATED WITH NEIGHBORING OFFICES
TO INTRODUCE A BAND OF ~40 POPS NORTH OF I-94 TO REFLECT THIS
SIGNAL. P-TYPE LIKELY STARTS AS RAIN GIVEN THE WARMER (ABOVE
FREEZING) DAYTIME TEMPERATURES FORECAST FOR TOMORROW, HOWEVER WE DO
ANTICIPATE A TRANSITION TO A WINTRY P-TYPE AS COLD ADVECTION
INCREASES TOMORROW EVENING. WHILE THIS IS A MORE "SUBTLE" ROUND OF
QPF, THE PRESENCE OF LIQUID PRECIP AND A TRANSITION TO A WINTRY P-
TYPE IN TANDEM WITH FALLING TEMPERATURES MAY CREATE A FEW SLICK
SPOTS ACROSS CENTRAL MN TOMORROW NIGHT.
HIGH PRESSURE RETURNS FOR TUESDAY & WEDNESDAY, HOWEVER THE INFLUENCE
OF THE COLDEST CANADIAN AIR WILL BE DISPLACED WELL TO THE EAST OVER
THE GREAT LAKES. WHILE COOLER THAN MONDAY, BOTH TUESDAY &
WEDNESDAY'S HIGHS WILL RUN ABOVE NORMAL IN THE 30S TO LOWER 40S
(WARMEST SOUTHWEST MN) WITH GENERALLY QUIET WEATHER EXPECTED. THE
NEXT POTENTIAL ROUND OF ACTIVE WEATHER ARRIVES ON THURSDAY, AS A
SHORTWAVE DIVES SOUTHEAST ALONG A REMNANT BAROCLINIC ZONE FORECAST TO
EXTEND FROM ROUGHLY CENTRAL SD TO CENTRAL IL THURSDAY MORNING. WARM
ADVECTION AND ISENTROPIC UPGLIDE INTO THE MID-LEVEL FRONT WILL BE
THE DRIVER FOR A POTENTIAL ROUND OF BANDED SNOWFALL ACROSS PORTIONS
OF OUR FORECAST AREA. ONE OF THE CHALLENGES AT THIS FORECAST
DISTANCE IS ESTABLISHING THE STRENGTH OF THE FEATURES AND MAGNITUDE
OF WARM ADVECTION, WHICH WILL DICTATE THE TRACK OF THE RESULTANT
SURFACE FEATURES AND ASSOCIATED PRECIPITATION AXIS. WHILE CONFIDENCE
IS LOW IN THE EXACT POSITION OF THE POTENTIAL SNOW/MIXED
PRECIPITATION, THERE IS ENOUGH OF A SIGNAL IN THE ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE
TO WARRANT AREAWIDE 30-50 POPS. THE EXTENDED FORECAST SUGGESTS A
MOSTLY DRY AND MILD WEEKEND FORECAST, WITH CONTINUED HIGHS IN THE
UPPER 30S TO LOWER 40S. A LACK OF LARGE SCALE FORCING AND AIR MASS
MOVEMENT INTO THE UPPER MIDWEST KEEPS POPS BELOW 20 PERCENT FROM
THURSDAY EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY.
AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY/
ISSUED AT 1127 AM CST SUN FEB 8 2026
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGHOUT THIS DURATION. MID-LEVEL
CLOUD DECK HAS SCATTERED OVER EASTERN MN, BUT PERSISTS OVER
WESTERN WI LIKELY INTO THE EVENING HOURS. ADDITIONAL MID-LEVEL
STRATUS MAY REDEVELOP OVERNIGHT WITH CIGS GENERALLY SCT060 TO
080. SE WINDS EXPECTED THROUGHOUT, WITH SPEEDS INTO THE 10-12KT
RANGE FROM LATE MORNING THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON THEN SETTLING
BACK TO UNDER 10KTS TONIGHT. INCREASING CONFIDENCE FOR SOME
LIGHT PRECIPITATION AT KAXN MONDAY MORNING THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON - THIS MAY WARRANT A PROB30 AT AXN IN FUTURE TAFS.
KMSP...NO ADDITIONAL CONCERNS.
/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/
TUE...VFR. WIND NW 5-10 KTS.
WED...VFR. WIND NW 5-10 KTS BECOMING NE.
THU...MVFR CEILINGS LIKELY. CHANCE -SN. WIND SE 5-10 KTS.
MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MN...NONE.
WI...NONE.
DISCUSSION...STRUS
AVIATION...BPH
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