483
FXUS63 KMPX 181117
AFDMPX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
617 AM CDT THU JUN 18 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE WEATHER (1/5) TOMORROW FOR A WIND AND
HAIL RISK.
- TEMPERATURES STILL COOLER THAN NORMAL, BUT WARMING BACK UP TO
NORMAL (HIGHS AROUND 80) BY NEXT WEEK.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 214 AM CDT THU JUN 18 2026
TODAY AND TOMORROW...WITH THE JET STREAM DIGGING DOWN SOUTH OF
THE UPPER MIDWEST AND NORTHERLY WINDS FROM THE SURFACE UP PAST
850 MB WE WILL BE IN A COLD AIR ADVECTION REGIME TODAY AND
TONIGHT. THIS WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES BELOW NORMAL WITH HIGHS IN
THE UPPER 60S TO LOWER 70S. WE SHOULD SEE CLEARING SKIES THIS
MORNING AND PLENTY OF SUN TODAY. THIS COMBINATION WILL LEAD TO
FAVORABLE MIXING AND A GUSTY AFTERNOON. THERE COULD BE ENOUGH
SATURATION ALOFT FOR SOME ELEVATED SHOWERS/STORMS IN SOUTHWEST
MINNESOTA THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING. WEAK SHEAR AND INSTABILITY
KEEPS THIS GENERAL THUNDER AT MOST. LOOKING AHEAD TO TOMORROW
WILL BE A MORE INTERESTING SETUP AS A SHORTWAVE MOVES IN TO
PROVIDE SOME FORCING. WE WILL CONTINUE TO HAVE MOISTURE AS THE
MAIN CHALLENGE ON FRIDAY WHEN IT COMES TO RAIN AS THERE IS NO
CLEAR MOISTURE SOURCE LIKE WE HAD ON WEDNESDAY. SHEAR WILL PICK
UP AS THE SHORTWAVE APPROACHES, BUT IT WILL BE MOSTLY SPEED
SHEAR WITH LITTLE DIRECTIONAL SHEAR. CURRENT CAM SOUNDINGS SHOW
POSSIBLE INVERTED V SOUNDINGS WITH ELEVATED INSTABILITY. THIS
GIVES STORM RISKS OF ELEVATED HAIL STORMS AND WITH THE INVERTED
V SOUNDING SOME DAMAGING WINDS COULD ALSO BE SEEN. WITH THAT
MOISTURE QUESTION THOUGH SPC HAS KEPT THIS AS A MARGINAL RISK (A
1 OUT OF 5).
THIS WEEKEND... THE WEEKEND HAS TRENDED TOWARDS A DRIER
FORECAST OVER THE PAST FEW MODEL RUNS. LOOKING TOWARDS THE
GLOBAL ENSEMBLES A DAY AGO THE ENS WAS HOLDING ON TO RAIN
CHANCES, BUT THE ENS IS NOW MOVING TOWARDS THE GEFS AND GEPS DRY
SOLUTIONS. THIS DRIER SOLUTION IS NOT DRY ON A REGIONAL SCALE,
JUST MORE SO THAT WHAT RAIN DOES HAPPEN STAYS TO OUR SOUTH.
LOOKING TOWARDS THE DETERMINISTIC GLOBAL MODELS THE ECMWF, GFS,
AND GDPS TRACK THE LOW THROUGH IA/MO AND KEEP RAIN MAINLY SOUTH
OF THE BORDER. TEMPERATURES STILL FAVORED TO BE BELOW NORMAL
WITH US ON THE COOLER SIDE OF THE SYSTEM, BUT WARMER THAN WHAT
WE HAVE SEEN RECENTLY WITH HIGHS IN THE 70S OVER THE WEEKEND.
NEXT WEEK... DESPITE THE DECREASING RAIN CHANCES THIS WEEKEND
THE OPPOSITE IS HAPPENING FOR TUE/WED NEXT WEEK WITH INCREASING
CLUSTERING WITHIN ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE AS ANOTHER WAVE MOVES IN
ALOFT. STILL A FAIR AMOUNT OF SPREAD ACROSS THESE TWO DAYS FOR
TIMING, BUT THERE IS GOOD AGREEMENT AMONG MEMBERSHIP FOR THE
OCCURRENCE OF THIS SYSTEM IN THE UPPER MIDWEST. SO FAIRLY GOOD
CONFIDENCE IN IT HAPPENING, BUT LOW CONFIDENCE ON WHEN DURING
THESE TWO DAYS. NBM TEMPERATURES SHOW A GENERALLY INCREASING MAX
TEMPERATURE THROUGHOUT THE WEEK WITH TEMPERATURES BACK TO BEING
GENERALLY AROUND NORMAL (NORMAL MAX TEMPERATURES IS AROUND 80
FOR MID JUNE).
AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY/
ISSUED AT 615 AM CDT THU JUN 18 2026
SATELLITE CAPTURES MVFR STRATUS MOVING EAST ACROSS EASTERN MN
AND WESTERN WI AND SURFACE OBS REVEAL BRIEF POCKETS OF IFR CIGS
WITHIN THE LARGER MVFR STRATUS DECK. THE 12Z PERIOD OPENS WITH
VFR CONDITIONS AT AXN/RWF. IMPROVEMENTS TO VFR SHOULD OCCUR
EARLY IN THE PERIOD AT STC/MSP/MKT. ON THE FLIP SIDE, IT WILL BE
A FEW HOURS BEFORE MVFR CIGS LIFT AT RNH/EAU, SO HAVE OPTED TO
LAG THE RETURN TO VFR CONDITIONS A BIT LONGER IN NEW TAF PACKAGE.
SCT TO BKN DIURNAL CU ANTICIPATED THIS AFTERNOON, BUT SHOULDN'T
AMOUNT TO MUCH MORE. THERE IS AN ISOLATED CHANCE FOR A SHOWER
OR STORM AT RWF/MKT, BUT CONFIDENCE WAS TOO LOW TO MAKE MENTION
IN THE TAFS AT THIS TIME.
KMSP...NO ADDITIONAL CONCERNS.
/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/
FRI...VFR. CHC OF MVFR/TSRA. WIND SW AT 5-15 KTS.
SAT...VFR. WIND NW AT 5-10 KTS.
SUN...VFR. WIND NE AT 10-15 KTS.
MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MN...NONE.
WI...NONE.
DISCUSSION...NDC
AVIATION...STRUS
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