050
FXUS63 KMPX 171123
AFDMPX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
623 AM CDT FRI JUL 17 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- WILDFIRE SMOKE WILL IMPROVE, BUT COULD RETURN BEHIND THE
FRONTAL PASSAGE LATER TODAY (HIGHEST CHANCE FOR MORE SMOKE IS
IN WI).
- ONE MORE DAY OF DANGEROUS HEAT TODAY UNTIL A COLD FRONT HELPS
TO COOL US DOWN.
- ISOLATED SHOWERS AND STORMS POSSIBLE ALONG THE FRONT THIS
EVENING.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 241 AM CDT FRI JUL 17 2026
THE MAIN FEATURE DRIVING OUR WEATHER IMPACTS OVER THE NEXT DAY
WILL BE THE FRONT ACROSS THE DAKOTAS. AHEAD OF THIS FRONT WILL
BE MAINLY SOUTHERLY FLOW WHICH WILL HAVE TWO IMPACTS, ONE GOOD
AND ONE BAD. THE GOOD IMPACT IS THAT IT WILL TRANSPORT THE SMOKE
AWAY FROM US AS THE FIRE SOURCES ARE TO THE NORTH OF US. THE BAD
WILL BE THAT THIS WAA WILL KEEP TODAY QUITE HOT. FOR THIS REASON
THE EXTREME HEAT WARNING FOR THE TWIN CITIES METRO CONTINUES AND
A HEAT ADVISORY WAS ISSUED ACROSS MUCH OF MINNESOTA. THIS IS
TIED MORE TO WBGT VALUES RATHER THAN THE HEAT INDEX. WBGT TAKES
OTHER FIELDS LIKE WIND, CLOUD COVER, AND SUN ANGLE INTO ACCOUNT
PAST THE SIMPLER TEMPERATURE AND HUMIDITY USED IN HEAT INDEX.
WBGT VALUES ARE FORECAST TO BE IN THE 85 TO 88 RANGE WHICH
SUGGESTS THAT HEAT STRESS CAN OCCUR WITH WORK IN THE SUN AFTER
30 MINUTES. SO IF YOU ARE A SENSITIVE POPULATION (OLD, YOUNG, OR
SICK) AVOIDING WORK OUTSIDE IS BEST AND IF YOU ARE NOT A
SENSITIVE POPULATION MAKE SURE TO TAKE FREQUENT BREAKS IN A COOL
PLACE AND DRINK PLENTY OF WATER. THIS WILL ALL CHANGE AS THE
COLD FRONT ADVANCES TO THE SOUTHEAST TODAY. THE SPC HAS GIVEN A
MARGINAL RISK FOR STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS TODAY AS AN UNSTABLE
ENVIRONMENT WITH MARGINAL SHEAR WILL BE PRESENT AHEAD OF THIS
FRONT FROM EAST CENTRAL MN INTO WEST CENTRAL WI. FARTHER
NORTH AND WEST THE ENVIRONMENT WILL HAVE LESS TIME TO
DESTABILIZE AHEAD OF THE FRONTAL PASSAGE. THIS LOOKS TO BE A
ISOLATED WIND AND HAIL THREAT WITH SHEAR PROFILES NOT FAVORABLE
FOR TORNADOS. BEHIND THAT COLD FRONT WINDS WILL SHIFT SUCH THAT
SOME SMOKE COULD MOVE BACK IN. HRRR SMOKE SUGGESTS THAT THE
GREATEST RISK WOULD BE OVER WISCONSIN AS THE FLOW BEHIND THE
FRONT WOULD BE MORE NORTHWEST AND MUCH OF THE SMOKE COULD MISS A
LARGE CHUNK OF MINNESOTA. IN ADDITION AS THIS SAME SYSTEM MOVES
THROUGH THE AREA WITH THE FIRES THERE COULD BE SOME RAIN TO
HELP IN REDUCING THE INTENSITY OF THE WILDFIRES. IN SUMMARY IF
THE FIRES CONTINUE AT A SIMILAR STRENGTH SMOKE COULD RETURN IN
SIMILAR STRENGTH FOR WISCONSIN WITH LIGHTER SMOKE POSSIBLE TO
THE WEST IN MINNESOTA. PARTS OF MINNESOTA WOULD BE IN THE MAIN
PATH OF THE SMOKE AS WELL, BUT THAT IS MORE IN WFO DULUTH'S
AREA, CHECK THEIR FORECAST INFORMATION FOR DETAILS IN NORTHEAST
MINNESOTA.
HIGH PRESSURE MOVES IN WITH COOLER TEMPERATURES ON SATURDAY.
STILL ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES, BUT FINALLY HAVING HIGHS IN THE
80S INSTEAD OF 90S. FOR THIS REASON THE HEAT WARNINGS AND
ADVISORIES ARE SET TO EXPIRE FRIDAY NIGHT. THIS DOESN'T LAST
LONG AS WAA RETURNS ON SUNDAY SENDING HIGHS INTO THE UPPER 80S
TO LOWER 90S. ALONG WITH THIS WARM UP COMES THE BEST CHANCE FOR
RAIN OVER THE NEXT WEEK LATE SUNDAY INTO MONDAY. A SHORTWAVE
TROUGH MOVING THROUGH SOUTHERN CANADA WILL DRIVE THIS NEXT
ROUND. WITH THIS TRACK THERE REMAINS SPREAD IN ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE
IN HOW FAR SOUTH AND WEST POPS SHOULD GO. IT REMAINS UP NORTH
CLOSER TO THE INTERNATIONAL BORDER WHERE CHANCES ARE MORE
CONSISTENT. WHAT IS CONSISTENT THOUGH IS MUCH COOLER AIR
ADVECTING IN BEHIND THIS SYSTEM. THIS WILL BRING NEAR TO BELOW
NORMAL TEMPERATURES FROM TUESDAY THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK.
AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY/
ISSUED AT 623 AM CDT FRI JUL 17 2026
THE SMOKE HAS MOSTLY CLEARED OUT THIS MORNING, BUT FOG/MIST HAS
FORMED OVER PARTS OF CENTRAL MINNESOTA TO WESTERN WISCONSIN
WHERE SATURATION HAS BEEN REACHED. THIS SHOULD CLEAR QUICKLY
TODAY AS WE WARM UP. VFR SHOULD PREVAIL TODAY AHEAD OF THE
FRONTAL PASSAGE LATER TODAY. WITH THIS PASSAGE THERE IS A CHANCE
FOR TSRA, BUT THE MOST FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT LOOKS TO BE MAINLY
BE NEAR RNH AND EAU SO HAVE OPTED TO KEEP PROB30S THERE ONLY.
WINDS WILL BE SHIFTING FROM CALM EARLY THIS MORNING TO SOUTH
LATER THIS MORNING. THEN THIS AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT SHIFTING
WEST AND THEN NORTH/NORTHWEST AS THE FRONT PASSES THROUGH. SOME
SMOKE COULD RETURN BEHIND THE FRONT, THE BEST CHANCES FOR THAT
WOULD BE IN WISCONSIN. WITH UNCERTAINTY ON WHEN THIS WOULD
OCCUR, HAVE OPTED TO KEEP IT OUT OF THE TAFS AT THIS TIME.
KMSP...STORM CHANCES LOOK BEST TO THE EAST AT THE MOMENT, BUT
THERE REMAINS A CHANCE FOR SOME ISOLATED STORMS THIS EVENING
NEAR THE TERMINAL. WILL KEEP AN EYE ON THAT FOR FUTURE UPDATES.
/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/
SAT PM...VFR. WIND SE 5 KTS.
SUN...VFR. CHC MVFR/-TSRA PM. WIND S 10-15 KTS.
MON...VFR. CHC -RA AM. WIND W 10-15G25 KTS.
MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MN...HEAT ADVISORY FROM 1 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 9 PM CDT THIS
EVENING FOR BENTON-BLUE EARTH-BROWN-CHIPPEWA-CHISAGO-
DOUGLAS-FARIBAULT-GOODHUE-ISANTI-KANABEC-KANDIYOHI-LAC
QUI PARLE-LE SUEUR-MARTIN-MCLEOD-MEEKER-MILLE LACS-
MORRISON-NICOLLET-POPE-REDWOOD-RENVILLE-RICE-SHERBURNE-
SIBLEY-STEARNS-STEVENS-SWIFT-TODD-WASECA-WATONWAN-WRIGHT-
YELLOW MEDICINE.
EXTREME HEAT WARNING UNTIL 9 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR ANOKA-
CARVER-DAKOTA-HENNEPIN-RAMSEY-SCOTT-WASHINGTON.
WI...HEAT ADVISORY FROM 1 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 9 PM CDT THIS
EVENING FOR PIERCE-POLK-ST. CROIX.
DISCUSSION...NDC
AVIATION...NDC
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