519
FXUS63 KMPX 110541
AFDMPX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
1241 AM CDT TUE AUG 11 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- THUNDERSTORMS LIKELY (50-60% CHANCE) ACROSS SOUTHERN
MINNESOTA LATE TONIGHT INTO EARLY TOMORROW MORNING, SOME COULD
BE STRONG WITH WIND AS THE MAIN THREAT.
- ADDITIONAL THUNDERSTORM POSSIBLE (30% CHANCE) TOMORROW NIGHT
INTO WEDNESDAY, BUT MORE SCATTERED WITH LESS SEVERE POTENTIAL.
- TEMPERATURES TURN COOLER MID WEEK INTO THE WEEKEND WITH HIGHS
ONLY IN THE 70S.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 1251 PM CDT MON AUG 10 2026
HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS THE MAIN STORY TODAY WITH LIGHT WINDS
PRESENT. THERE IS QUITE A DEW POINT SPREAD ACROSS THE REGION
WITH MID 50S IN CENTRAL MINNESOTA UP TO 70S DOWN NEAR THE IOWA
BORDER. LOOKING TOWARDS TONIGHT INTO TOMORROW MORNING A POTENT
SHORTWAVE WILL TRACK FROM THE NORTHERN PLAINS INTO THE MIDWEST.
IT WILL BE MAINLY DOWN IN THIS REGION WITH THE HIGHER DEW POINTS
ACROSS SOUTHERN MINNESOTA THAT WILL SEE IMPACTS FROM THE SOURCE
OF FORCING. HOW FAR NORTH RAIN WILL GET WILL DEPEND ON THE
STRENGTH OF THE LLJ WE GET AND HOW MUCH OF A MOISTURE PUSH
OCCURS. THE TWIN CITIES METRO IS NEAR THE NORTHERN END OF THESE
CHANCES THAT WILL BE DEPENDENT ON THIS ADDITIONAL PUSH FROM THE
LLJ TO SEE MUCH CHANCE FOR RAIN OR THUNDERSTORMS. IT WILL BE
THIS AREA SOUTH THAT HAS THE BEST CHANCE. OVERALL CI IS EXPECTED
TO OCCUR TO OUT WEST ACROSS SOUTH DAKOTA AND WILL LIKELY SEE
UPSCALE GROWTH INTO AN MCS AS IT MOVES EAST INTO SOUTHERN
MINNESOTA/IOWA. AS IS COMMON WITH THIS CONVECTIVE MODE, WIND AND
HEAVY RAIN WILL BE THE MAIN CONCERNS AS THIS PASSES THROUGH
TONIGHT OR TOMORROW MORNING. PW VALUES WILL BE UP NEAR 2 INCHES
BASED ON CAM OUTPUT, SO HEAVY RAIN WILL BE LIKELY WITHIN WHAT
STORMS DO OCCUR. IT WILL BE RESIDENCE TIME OF THIS RAIN THAT
WILL DETERMINE THE FLOODING THREAT.
TUESDAY WILL SEE MORE OF A NORTHWEST FLOW PATTERN WITHOUT MUCH
STRONG FORCING. DAYTIME HEATING WILL STILL BE ROBUST, AS IS
COMMON IN THE SUMMER, AND WILL PROVIDE A MORE AIRMASS KIND OF
THUNDERSTORM ENVIRONMENT. SHEAR DOESN'T LOOK GREAT FOR US AND
THAT WILL LIMIT SEVERE CHANCES SUCH THAT SPC HAS MARGINAL OVER
US FOR TOMORROW. IN THE SPC DAY 2 DISCUSSION THEY MENTIONED THE
CHANCE FOR ANOTHER ROUND OF UPSCALE GROWTH INTO AN MCS AS ONE OF
THE REASONS FOR THE MARGINAL RISK OVER SOUTHERN MINNESOTA.
COOLER AIR AND HIGHER PRESSURE LOOK TO BE THE STORY FOR THE
LATER PART OF THE WORK WEEK. THIS WILL SEE HIGHS IN THE 70S
WITH LOW POP CHANCES. LOOKING TOWARD THE WEEKEND THERE IS SOME
SIGNAL WITHIN ENSEMBLE SYSTEMS FOR ANOTHER ROUND OF RAIN.
SCATTERING STILL REMAINS FAIRLY SIGNIFICANT, BUT IT IS SATURDAY,
ESPECIALLY EARLY, THAT SHOWS THE BEST CHANCES. THIS IS ALSO
REFLECTED WITH SOME LIKELY POPS IN THE NBM FOR THIS PERIOD. THIS
DOES NOT LOOK TO BE A STRONGLY FORCED EVENT, WHICH INTRODUCES
SOME ADDITIONAL AREAS OF UNCERTAINTY. WITH THESE RAIN CHANCES
THE COOLER TEMPERATURES SHOULD EXTEND INTO SATURDAY, WITH SOME
WARMING FOR THE START OF THE NEXT WEEK EXPECTED.
AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z WEDNESDAY/
ISSUED AT 1235 AM CDT TUE AUG 11 2026
ALL SITES VFR TO START BUT UNCERTAINTY LOOMS AS TO INITIATION OF
CONVECTION OVER EASTERN SD AND HOW THAT MAY IMPACT WFO MPX TAF
SITES, ESPECIALLY RWF-MKT-MSP. THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO
SPREAD ACROSS SOUTHERN MINNESOTA THROUGH SUNRISE THIS MORNING,
WITH IMPACTS FOR -TSRA & BRIEF GUSTY WINDS EXPECTED AT RWF &
MKT. IT REMAINS UNCERTAIN JUST HOW FAR NORTH THE THUNDERSTORMS
COULD EXTEND INTO CENTRAL MINNESOTA. WILL MAINTAIN A PROB30 FOR
THUNDER AT MSP BUT OTHERWISE EXPECT DRY CONDITIONS ACROSS MOST
OF CENTRAL MN & WESTERN WI. VFR CONDITIONS FROM LATE MORNING
ONWARD WITH MID LEVEL CLOUDS THIS AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT. WINDS
WILL BE LIGHT THROUGH THE PERIOD, GENERALLY SOUTHERLY TO
SOUTHWESTERLY.
KMSP...THE MAIN REGION OF THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY WILL REMAIN
SOUTH OF THE TERMINAL, BUT IT'S STILL UNCERTAIN JUST HOW FAR
NORTH LIGHTER PRECIPITATION & LIGHTING COULD EXTEND. THE MAIN
WINDOW FOR ANY POTENTIAL THUNDER WOULD BE FOR AN HOUR OR TWO
PRIOR TO AND AROUND DAYBREAK.
/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/
THU...VFR. WIND NE 5-10 KTS.
FRI...MAINLY VFR. CHC -TSRA/MVFR LATE. WIND SE 10 KTS.
SAT...-RA LIKELY, MAINLY A.M. CHC MVFR. WIND SE 10-15 KTS
SHIFTING TO NW.
MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MN...NONE.
WI...NONE.
DISCUSSION...NDC
AVIATION...JPC
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