952
FXUS63 KMPX 211058
AFDMPX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
558 AM CDT FRI AUG 21 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- PLEASANT THIS WEEKEND WITH SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES.
- ANOTHER ROUND OF SCATTERED SHOWERS & THUNDERSTORMS LATE MONDAY
INTO TUESDAY.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 230 AM CDT FRI AUG 21 2026
SHOWERS & THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUE TO EXIT THE AREA INTO CENTRAL
WISCONSIN AS A COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE REGION. SOME LOWER
CLOUD COVER MAY LINGER THROUGH THE MORNING, ESPECIALLY ACROSS
CENTRAL MINNESOTA & WESTERN WISCONSIN, BUT SKIES SHOULD
GRADUALLY CLEAR THROUGH THE DAY AS DRIER AIR BEGINS FILTERING
INTO THE AREA BEHIND THE FRONT. NORTHWEST WINDS WILL BECOME A
BIT BREEZY BY LATE MORNING & AFTERNOON WITH GUSTS AROUND 20 MPH,
BUT OTHERWISE WERE LOOKING AT A PLEASANT END TO THE WORK WEEK
WITH HIGHS GENERALLY IN THE UPPER 70S TO LOW 80S.
AN EVEN NICER WEEKEND IS EXPECTED AS CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES
INTO THE UPPER MIDWEST. NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL KEEP
TEMPERATURES NEAR TO SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL WITH HIGHS NEAR 80
BOTH SATURDAY & SUNDAY, WHILE MUCH DRIER DEW POINTS MAKE IT FEEL
CONSIDERABLY MORE COMFORTABLE THAN THE MUGGY WEATHER WE'VE SEEN
AT TIMES THIS WEEK. SATURDAY LOOKS A LITTLE BREEZIER WITH
NORTHWEST WINDS GUSTING TO AROUND 20 MPH DURING THE AFTERNOON,
WHILE WINDS BECOME LIGHT BY SUNDAY AS THE SURFACE HIGH MOVES
DIRECTLY OVER THE REGION. MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES ARE EXPECTED BOTH
DAYS. NIGHTS WILL BE FAIRLY COOL FOR LATE AUGUST AS WELL, WITH
LOWS IN THE 50S OUTSIDE OF THE TWIN CITIES METRO SATURDAY &
SUNDAY NIGHTS. SOME OF THE TYPICAL COOLER LOCATIONS ACROSS
CENTRAL MINNESOTA & WESTERN WISCONSIN COULD DIP INTO THE 40S.
A SHORTWAVE IS FORECAST TO MOVE ACROSS THE DAKOTAS SUNDAY,
BRINING A CHANCE FOR SCATTERED SHOWERS & THUNDERSTORMS. GENERAL
MODEL CONSENSUS IS TO KEEP THIS ACTIVITY WEST OF THE AREA
ACROSS SOUTH DAKOTA & SOUTHWEST MINNESOTA, BUT CAN'T RULE OUT A
SLIGHT CHANCE OF SOME RAIN ACROSS WESTERN MINNESOTA. BETTER
CHANCES FOR RAIN LOOK TO COME LATE MONDAY INTO TUESDAY, WHEN A
STRONGER SHORTWAVE IS FORECAST TO SKIRT ALONG THE US-CANADA
BORDER & A COLD FRONT PASSES THROUGH THE REGION. INCREASING DEW
POINTS VALUES AHEAD OF THE FRONT ALONG WITH SEASONABLY STRONG
WIND SHEAR ASSOCIATED WITH THE SHORTWAVE SUGGESTS THERE COULD
BE A STRONGER STORM OR TWO, BUT THIS WILL ULTIMATELY ON THE
TIMING OF THE FRONT DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON & EVENING.
NORTHWEST FLOW RETURNS BEHIND THE FRONT FOR WEDNESDAY &
THURSDAY, BRINGING ANOTHER STRETCH OF QUIET WEATHER TO FINISH
OUT THE FORECAST PERIOD. TEMPERATURES LOOK TO SETTLE BACK CLOSE
TO SEASONAL NORMALS WITH HIGHS GENERALLY IN THE LOW 80S &
COMFORTABLE NIGHTTIME TEMPERATURES IN THE UPPER 50S TO LOW 60S.
ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO FAVOR THE STRONGER UPPER-LEVEL
RIDGING REMAINING SOUTHWEST OF THE REGION, WHICH SHOULD KEEP ANY
SIGNIFICANT LATE-SUMMER HEAT AWAY FROM MINNESOTA & WISCONSIN
THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK. OVERALL, OUTSIDE OF THE RELATIVELY
LOW-CONFIDENCE SHOWER & THUNDERSTORM CHANCES MONDAY INTO
TUESDAY, WERE LOOKING AT A FAIRLY QUIET STRETCH OF LATE-AUGUST
WEATHER OVER THE NEXT SEVEN DAYS.
AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY/
ISSUED AT 554 AM CDT FRI AUG 21 2026
LOW CLOUD COVER CONTINUES TO SPREAD SOUTH INTO CENTRAL MINNESOTA
& WISCONSIN EARLY THIS MORNING. IFR CEILINGS ARE MOST LIKELY AT
AXN, WHILE MVFR CEILINGS ARE LOOKING MORE LIKELY AT
STC/MSP/RNH. THE CLOUDS ARE EXPECTED TO BEGIN SCATTERING OUT
AFTER SUNRISE, SO CONFIDENCE IS LOW ON JUST HOW FAR SOUTH THE
LOWER CEILINGS WILL EXTEND INTO CENTRAL MINNESOTA. LIGHT WINDS
TONIGHT GO FROM SOUTHWESTERLY TO NORTHWESTERLY BY TOMORROW
MORNING. SPEEDS INCREASE THROUGH THE MORNING WITH GUSTS UP TO 20
KTS EXPECTED BY LATE MORNING/EARLY AFTERNOON. WINDS DIMINISH BY
SUNSET.
KMSP...UNCERTAIN FORECAST FOR CEILINGS THIS MORNING, DEPENDING
ON HOW QUICKLY THE STRATUS BEGINS TO BREAK UP AFTER SUNRISE.
CURRENT TRENDS SUGGEST IT MAY TAKE A WHILE, SO ADDED A FEW HOURS
OF MVFR CEILINGS LATER THIS MORNING.
/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/
SAT...VFR. WIND NW 10G20 KTS.
SUN...VFR. WIND N 5-10 KTS.
MON...VFR, CHC -SHRA LATE NIGHT. WIND S 5-15 KTS.
MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MN...NONE.
WI...NONE.
DISCUSSION...ETA
AVIATION...ETA
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