063
FXUS63 KMPX 300520
AFDMPX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
1220 AM CDT WED SEP 30 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- RAIN CONTINUES TO PROGRESS EAST ACROSS THE REGION TODAY. THE
RAIN WILL SETTLE TO THE SOUTH TONIGHT WITH FOG DEVELOPING AREA
WIDE OVERNIGHT.
- ANOTHER PERIOD OF DRY WEATHER WILL RETURN WEDNESDAY, WITH THE
ONLY CHANCE OF RAIN IN THE FORESEEABLE FUTURE COMING
SATURDAY.
- TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN NEAR NORMAL THROUGH EARLY OCTOBER.
ANY FROST CHANCES APPEAR LIMITED TO FRIDAY NIGHT IN THE
COLDEST LOCATIONS OF NORTHERN MN/WI.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 1139 AM CDT TUE SEP 29 2026
A BAND OF MODERATE TO LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN IS PROGRESSING EASTWARD
INTO EASTERN MN AND NORTHWEST WI LATE THIS MORNING. RAINFALL TOTALS
HAVE BEEN IN THE 1/4 TO 1/2 INCH RANGE, BUT SOME AREAS HAVE HAD
AROUND 3/4 INCH SUCH AS IN ALEXANDRIA. THE SHOWERS WILL EVENTUALLY
FOCUS IN WESTERN WI LATER THIS AFTERNOON AS THE MID LEVEL TROUGH
SWINGS THROUGH WITH JUST A FEW LIGHT SHOWERS LINGERING IN MN INTO
EARLY EVENING. MID AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS WILL MOVE OUT THIS EVENING.
WITH THE SURFACE FRONT REMAINING WELL TO THE NORTH UNTIL LATER
WEDNESDAY, AMPLE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL REMAIN IN PLACE. FOG
DEVELOPMENT TONIGHT IS EXPECTED, ESPECIALLY IN AREAS WHERE LOW
LEVEL CLOUD DEPTH BECOMES QUITE SHALLOW. THIS IS MOST PROBABLE
ACROSS CENTRAL AND WESTERN MN WHICH WOULD BE FURTHEST REMOVED
FROM THE TROUGH AXIS, AND THE MOISTURE TRANSPORT RIBBON FROM THE
SOUTHERN PLAINS TO MID MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. SOME OF THE FOG MAY
BECOME DENSE.
A WARM AND HUMID AIRMASS WILL BE IN PLACE WEDNESDAY AHEAD OF AN
APPROACHING COLD FRONT LATER IN THE DAY. 925 MB TEMPS WILL RANGE
FROM +18C TO +21C, SO HIGHS IN THE MID TO UPPER 70S ARE LIKELY
WITH AN 80 NOT BEING RULED OUT IN A FEW PLACES. EARLY MORNING
FOG SHOULD BURN OFF BY MID TO LATE MORNING. DRY AIR ALOFT AND
THE SHALLOW MOIST LAYER AT THE SURFACE WILL BE ABLE TO KEEP THE
FOG FROM TRANSITIONING TO LOW STRATUS THAT IS MORE DIFFICULT TO
SCATTER OUT. INCREASED TEMPERATURES CLOSER TO THE NBM 75TH
PERCENTILE.
A QUIET ZONAL FLOW PATTERN WILL DOMINATE THE FIRST WEEK OF OCTOBER.
THIS WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES MILD AND PRECIP CHANCES TO A MINIMUM.
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN FRIDAY MAY ALLOW FOR ONE OF THE
COOLER NIGHTS OF THE WEEK FRIDAY NIGHT AND SOME PATCHY FROST
FORMATION IS POSSIBLE OVER NORTHERN MN/WI. QUICK ON THE HEELS OF THE
DEPARTURE OF THE SURFACE HIGH WILL BE A SOMEWHAT VIGOROUS SHORT
WAVE SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING, BRINGING OUR ONLY CHANCE
OF SHOWERS IN THE EXTENDED PERIOD.
AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z THURSDAY/
ISSUED AT 1201 AM CDT WED SEP 30 2026
RA THAT OCCURRED EARLIER HAVE SINCE MOVED SOUTH AND EAST OF THE
FORECAST AREA. CURRENT SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS THE ASSOCIATED
BKN TO OVC CLOUDS MOVING EAST AS WELL. WITH MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES
OVERSPREADING BEHIND THE SWATH OF CLOUDS, FG WILL DEVELOP
THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS. ALREADY SEEING FG AND REDUCTIONS TO
VIS ACROSS NORTH AND CENTRAL PORTIONS OF THE CWA WITH AXN AND
STC DOWN TO LESS THAN 4 MILES. FG WILL CONTINUE TO OVERSPREAD
ACROSS THE AREA, IMPACTING ALL TERMINALS DURING THE EARLY TO MID
MORNING HOURS WITH IFR TO POTENTIALLY LIFR CATEGORIES. TEMPO
GROUPS FOR FG REMAIN IN THE TAF THROUGH SUNRISE. CONDITIONS WILL
IMPROVE TO MVFR BY 15-16Z AND VFR BY 17-18Z. WINDS WILL BE SW
DURING THE DAY AT 5-10 KNOTS.
KMSP...FG WILL CONTINUE TO OVERSPREAD THE AREA THROUGH THE
MORNING HOURS WITH REDUCTIONS DOWN TO 1 MILE BY 10-11Z.
CONDITIONS WILL GRADUALLY IMPROVE AFTER SUNRISE, BECOMING MVFR
BY 15Z AND VFR BY 18Z.
/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/
THU...VFR. WIND NW 10-15G25 KTS.
FRI...VFR. WIND VARIABLE 5 KTS.
SAT...VFR. CHC MVFR SHRA. S BCMG SW WINDS 5-10KTS
MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MN...NONE.
WI...NONE.
DISCUSSION...BORGHOFF
AVIATION...LPR
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