125
FXUS63 KMPX 170743
AFDMPX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
243 AM CDT WED JUN 17 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- MULTIPLE ROUNDS OF SHOWERS/STORMS TODAY, WITH A CHANCE FOR
SOME STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS THIS AFTERNOON.
- COOLER THAN NORMAL TEMPERATURES CONTINUE TODAY WITH A WARMING
TREND THROUGH THE WEEKEND BACK TO NORMAL.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 243 AM CDT WED JUN 17 2026
THE SURFACE LOW IS CURRENTLY OVER THE DAKOTAS EARLY THIS
MORNING. THIS LOW WILL MOVE INTO SOUTHERN MINNESOTA THIS
AFTERNOON AND OFF TO OUR SOUTHEAST BY THIS EVENING. IN ADDITION
WE WILL SEE THE LEFT EXIT REGION OF A JET STREAK OVERHEAD AS
WELL AS A SUBTLE SHORTWAVE. THIS WILL PROVIDE FOR AMPLE LIFT.
THE QUESTION IS WHAT DOES THE ATMOSPHERE DO WITH THIS LIFT?
MORE SPECIFICALLY WHAT ARE THE THUNDERSTORM IMPACTS? TO START HE
DAY WE HAVE A LLJ PROVIDING SOME MUCH NEEDED MOISTURE. THIS HAS
ALLOWED RAIN SHOWERS TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE BROADER REGION.
LOOKING TOWARDS THUNDERSTORMS WE WILL NEED INSTABILITY AND FOR
MORE ORGANIZED CONVECTION, SHEAR. WE WILL SEE STRONG SPEED
SHEAR THROUGHOUT THE DAY, BUT THE DIRECTIONAL SHEAR WILL BE
DEPEND ON THE POSITION OF THE LOW. THE STRONGEST SHEAR, MOST
TYPICAL OF SUPERCELLS, WILL BE AHEAD OF THE LOW. THIS WILL MOVE
THROUGH MOST OF OUR AREA DURING THE MORNING. SO WE WILL SEE THE
BEST SHEAR PROFILES DURING OUR MINIMA OF INSTABILITY DUE TO THE
TIME OF DAY. SO FAR THIS MORNING WE HAVE STRUGGLED TO DEVELOP
EVEN ELEVATED MU CAPE AND THEREFORE THUNDERSTORMS. THE ONLY AREA
WITH SOME MU CAPE HAS BEEN FAR SOUTHWEST MINNESOTA, BUT EVEN IN
SW MINNESOTA THERE HAVE NOT BEEN LIGHTNING STRIKES OBSERVED. IT
IS FARTHER WEST CLOSER TO THE SURFACE LOW WHERE STRIKES HAVE
BEEN OCCURRING. SO IT IS SEEMING INCREASINGLY UNLIKELY SO SEE
MUCH BEYOND RAIN SHOWERS THIS MORNING FOR MUCH OF THE AREA, IT
WOULD ONLY BE FAR SOUTHERN MINNESOTA WHERE THERE ARE CHANCES.
ATTENTION THEN TURNS TO THE AFTERNOON FOR STORMS CHANCES. EVEN
WITH THE MODEST WARMING EXPECTED TODAY, THIS SHOULD BE ENOUGH TO
GET 1000-2000 J/KG OF CAPE. THE DIFFERENCE HERE THOUGH IS WE
HAVE TO MORE STRAIGHT LINE HODOGRAPHS BY THIS POINT AS THE LOW
CONTINUES TO MOVE EAST. THIS WOLD FAVOR MORE MULTICELL STORMS
AND A LOWER SEVERE IMPACT AS THESE MULTICELL STORMS TEND TO
STRUGGLE MORE IN THESE LOWER END INSTABILITY SETUPS. THE SPC
HAS KEPT A SMALL HATCHED HAIL AREA IN FAR SOUTH CENTRAL AND
SOUTHEAST MINNESOTA. THIS IS THE ONE AREA THAT MIGHT STILL HAVE
SOME DIRECTIONAL SHEAR TO FAVOR MORE DISCRETE CONVECTION AND
THEREFORE HAIL. ON A HEAVY RAIN FRONT, STORM MOTIONS ARE
EXPECTED TO BE FAST ENOUGH THAT WHILE HEAVY RAIN IMPACTS CANNOT
BE RULES OUT, IT IS NOT A MAJOR CONCERN. BY THE EVENING THE LOW
SHOULD BE OFF INTO EASTERN WISCONSIN OR THE SOUTHERN GREAT
LAKES. THIS WILL LEAD TO DIMINISHING STORM COVERAGE AS THE
SOURCE OF LIFT COMES TO AN END.
BEHIND WEDNESDAY'S SYSTEM THURSDAY WILL SEE HIGH PRESSURE MOVE
IN BRINGING US CLEARING SKIES. WITH MORE OF A CAA SETUP THOUGH
THE SUN ONLY BRING HIGHS UP TO AROUND 70 FOR THE DAY. FRIDAY
WILL SEE ANOTHER SHORTWAVE MOVE IN ALONG THE LARGELY ZONAL FLOW
ALOFT THAT WE HAVE SEEN ALL WEEK. THERE APPEARS TO BE ENOUGH
INSTABILITY FOR SOME THUNDERSTORMS AS WELL ONCE WE GET INTO THE
AFTERNOON AND EVENING ON FRIDAY. AS WE HEAD INTO THE WEEKEND OUR
NORTHWESTERLY ZONAL FLOW STARTS TO BECOME MORE WESTERLY AND
THAT WILL HELP TEMPERATURES WARM BACK UP TO AROUND NORMAL (HIGHS
IN THE UPPER 70S). HOW MUCH WE WARM STILL VARIES WITH GEPS AND
GEFS HOLDING WARMER THE THE EPS. GEPS STILL SHOWS SOME 80S AS WE
MOVING INTO THE START OF THE NEXT WEEK. THE EPS DOES HAVE MORE
RAIN CHANCES ALONG WITH COOLER TEMPERATURES WITH THE GEFS AND
GEPS LOOKING QUITE DRY. THE MAIN PERIOD EPS MEMBERS HIGHLIGHT
FOR RAIN IS ON SUNDAY AND THAT IS REFLECTED IN THE NBM POPS.
HOWEVER WITH THE GREAT SPREAD BETWEEN THE ENSEMBLE SYSTEMS THERE
IS LITTLE CONFIDENCE IN THIS RAIN AT THIS POINT.
AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z THURSDAY/
ISSUED AT 1222 AM CDT WED JUN 17 2026
FOR THE START OF THE PERIOD THE MAIN AREA OF ACTIVITY LOOKS LIKE
IT WILL STAY WELL TO THE SOUTH OF THE TERMINALS. THERE WILL BE
RAIN THE THE NORTH OF THIS ACTIVITY IN SW MINNESOTA, BUT IT
WILL BE VFR SHOWERS. AS WE MOVE INTO LATE MORNING AND AFTERNOON
AVIATION IMPACTS ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE. THIS NEXT ROUND OF
RAIN AND SOME THUNDERSTORMS WILL HAVE DROPS INTO MVFR AND FOR
SOME TERMINALS IFR. THE MAIN DROPS INTO IFR WILL BE WITH PERIODS
OF HEAVIER RAINFALL OR THUNDERSTORMS. SOME LOW STRATUS ALSO
LOOKS TO LINGER IN WISCONSIN TO END THIS PERIOD LEADING TO A
MORE PROLONGED LOW MVFR/HIGH IFR IMPACT.
KMSP... SHOWERS OVERNIGHT INTO THE EARLY MORNING SHOULD HAVE
LITTLE IMPACT. IT WILL BE THE LATE MORNING INTO EARLY AFTERNOON
CHANCE FOR RAIN AND POSSIBLY THUNDERSTORMS THAT WILL SEE DROPS
INTO MVFR. STILL SOME SIGNAL FOR POSSIBLE IFR, BUT NOT ENOUGH
FOR TAF INCLUSION YET. THE BEST THUNDERSTORM CHANCES ARE STILL
TO THE SOUTH OF THE AIRFIELD, SO OPTED TO STICK WITH THE PROB30
GROUP FOR THIS AFTERNOON.
/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/
THU...VFR. WIND NW 10-20 KTS.
FRI...VFR. CHC MVFR/TSRA. WIND W 10-15 KTS.
SAT...VFR. WIND NW 5-10 KTS.
MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MN...NONE.
WI...NONE.
DISCUSSION...NDC
AVIATION...NDC
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