283
FXUS63 KMPX 231158
AFDMPX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
558 AM CST FRI JAN 23 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- COLD WEATHER ADVISORY WILL REPLACE EXTREME COLD WARNING LATER THIS
MORNING. WINDS CHILLS TONIGHT WILL RANGE BETWEEN -25 TO -35 DEGREES.
- QUIET AND COLD THROUGH MOST OF NEXT WEEK WITH ONLY MINOR SNOW
CHANCES.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 224 AM CST FRI JAN 23 2026
IT IS JUST. DOWN. RIGHT. COLD. CURRENT TEMPERATURES RANGING IN THE
UPPER TEENS TO LOW 20S BELOW ZERO. SUSTAINED 10-15KT WINDS GUSTING
TO NEAR 20KTS CONTINUE OUT OF THE NORTHWEST EARLY THIS MORNING
MAKING THESE ALREADY COLD TEMPERATURES FEEL EVEN COLDER AS WIND
CHILLS BOTTOM OUT AT -40 TO -45 DEGREES. ALTHOUGH THIS ISN'T
THE COLDEST WE'VE SEEN HISTORICALLY. BACK IN 1936 ON JANUARY
22ND, MSP RECORDED AN AIR TEMPERATURE OF -34 DEGREES AND 20 MPH
WINDS. THUS MAKING A WIND CHILL OF -67 DEGREES. AS FOR WHAT IS
ON THE CURRENT SATELLITE, ONLY A FEW BANDS OF LOW STRATUS OUT
THERE THAT LOOK TO BE PRODUCING SOME FLURRIES AND PERHAPS SOME
BRIEF REDUCTIONS IN VISIBILITY BUT NO ACCUMULATION EXPECTED AND
SHOULD WRAP UP PRIOR TO DAYBREAK. WINDS WILL BEGIN TO DECREASE
AS A MID-LEVEL TROUGH DEPARTS FARTHER EASTWARD OVER THE GREAT
LAKES AND ALLOWS FOR A 1045MB SURFACE HIGH TO ARRIVE FROM THE
WEST LATER TODAY.
DESPITE THE STRENGTH OF THIS SURFACE HIGH, CLOUD COVER IS EXPECTED
TO STICK AROUND TODAY THANKS TO THE IMPRESSIVE STORM SYSTEM
IMPACTING THE SOUTHERN CONUS. ALTHOUGH IT WONT BE A COMPLETELY
OVERCAST DAY HERE, THERE SHOULD BE ENOUGH CLOUDS PRESENT TO HELP
WITH SOME SURFACE INSOLATION. FELT THAT THE CONSSHORT GUIDANCE
LOOKED TO REPRESENT THIS THIS BETTER COMPARED TO THE LATEST NBM,
THUS USED CONSSHORT HOURLY TS THROUGH SATURDAY TO HELP NUDGE
SURFACE TS UP SLIGHTLY. WITH THAT SAID, OUR EXTREME COLD, AND
COLD WEATHER HEADLINES REMAIN THE SAME FOR NOW. ONCE THE EXTREME
COLD WARNING ENDS, IT WILL IMMEDIATELY TRANSITION TO A COLD
WEATHER ADVISORY. WIND CHILLS TONIGHT INTO SATURDAY MORNING WILL
NOT BE "AS COLD" AS LAST NIGHT'S. WEAK WINDS WILL ALLOW FOR
MINTS TO REPRESENT HOW COLD WE GET TONIGHT WHICH IN THIS CASE
RANGES BETWEEN -15 TO -25 DEGREES. NOT MUCH TO DISCUSS BEYOND IN
THE FORECAST BEYOND TODAY AS IT REMAINS COLD AND QUIET. WE WILL
HAVE TO WATCH A CLIPPER SYSTEM MONDAY NIGHT HOWEVER THAT LOOKS
TO REMAIN DISTANT ENOUGH TO WHERE WE'D ONLY SEE A SLIGHT CHANCE
FOR SOME LIGHT SNOW. TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO REMAIN WELL
BELOW NORMAL IN THE SINGLE DIGITS TO LOW TEENS THROUGH THE REST
OF THIS MONTH.
AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SATURDAY/
ISSUED AT 557 AM CST FRI JAN 23 2026
VFR. HIGH PRESSURE MOVING IN TODAY WILL ALLOW FOR MAINLY
HIGH LEVEL FEW TO SCT CIGS LATER THIS MORNING. DID INCLUDE
MENTIONS FOR THE POTENTIAL OF FAIR WEATHER CU DEVELOPING ACROSS
ALL SITES THIS AFTERNOON. GUIDANCE APPEARED TO BE VERY SPLIT TO
WHERE THE RAP WANTED TO FORCE SNOW AND KEEP MVFR CIGS ALL DAY
FROM THIS CU, AND THE GFS KEEPING SITES DRY WITH HIGH SCT CIGS.
OUR UA SOUNDING THIS MORNING IS FAVORING THE DRIER SETUP WITH
HIGH SCT CIGS. NW'LY WINDS TODAY WILL CONTINUE TO DECREASE
ACROSS ALL SITES AND BECOME LIGHT AND VARIABLE AT THE END OF THE
PERIOD AS HIGH PRESSURE MOVES ACROSS FROM WEST TO EAST.
KMSP...NO ADDITIONAL CONCERNS.
/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/
SUN...VFR. WIND VRB 5KTS.
MON...VFR. WIND SW 10-15KTS.
TUE...VFR. WIND NW 10-15KTS.
MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MN...EXTREME COLD WARNING UNTIL NOON CST TODAY FOR ANOKA-BENTON-
BLUE EARTH-BROWN-CARVER-CHIPPEWA-CHISAGO-DAKOTA-DOUGLAS-
FARIBAULT-FREEBORN-GOODHUE-HENNEPIN-ISANTI-KANABEC-
KANDIYOHI-LAC QUI PARLE-LE SUEUR-MARTIN-MCLEOD-MEEKER-
MILLE LACS-MORRISON-NICOLLET-POPE-RAMSEY-REDWOOD-RENVILLE-
RICE-SCOTT-SHERBURNE-SIBLEY-STEARNS-STEELE-STEVENS-SWIFT-
TODD-WASECA-WASHINGTON-WATONWAN-WRIGHT-YELLOW MEDICINE.
COLD WEATHER ADVISORY FROM NOON TODAY TO MIDNIGHT CST TONIGHT
FOR ANOKA-BENTON-BLUE EARTH-BROWN-CARVER-CHIPPEWA-CHISAGO-
DAKOTA-DOUGLAS-FARIBAULT-FREEBORN-GOODHUE-HENNEPIN-ISANTI-
KANABEC-KANDIYOHI-LAC QUI PARLE-LE SUEUR-MARTIN-MCLEOD-
MEEKER-MILLE LACS-MORRISON-NICOLLET-POPE-RAMSEY-REDWOOD-
RENVILLE-RICE-SCOTT-SHERBURNE-SIBLEY-STEARNS-STEELE-
STEVENS-SWIFT-TODD-WASECA-WASHINGTON-WATONWAN-WRIGHT-
YELLOW MEDICINE.
WI...EXTREME COLD WARNING UNTIL NOON CST TODAY FOR BARRON-CHIPPEWA-
DUNN-EAU CLAIRE-PEPIN-PIERCE-POLK-RUSK-ST. CROIX.
COLD WEATHER ADVISORY FROM NOON TODAY TO MIDNIGHT CST TONIGHT
FOR BARRON-CHIPPEWA-DUNN-EAU CLAIRE-PEPIN-PIERCE-POLK-
RUSK-ST. CROIX.
DISCUSSION...DUNLEAVY
AVIATION...DUNLEAVY
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