615
FXUS63 KMPX 051812
AFDMPX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
112 PM CDT FRI JUN 5 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- MORE STORM CHANCES ON TODAY WITH THE BEST CHANCES ACROSS
CENTRAL MINNESOTA INTO WESTERN WISCONSIN.
- SATURDAY TRENDS BACK TO DRY BEFORE WET WEATHER RETURNS LATE
SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY.
- MUCH HOTTER TEMPERATURES BY THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK WITH 90S
EXPECTED.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 309 AM CDT FRI JUN 5 2026
A FEW AREAS OF RAIN STRETCH FROM CENTRAL TO SOUTHWESTERN MN EARLY
THIS MORNING WITH THE STRONGEST ACTIVITY FROM NEAR STC TO JMR. HERE,
SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS HAVE BEEN PULSING UP AND DOWN OVER THE LAST
COUPLE OF HOURS. SOME SMALL HAIL MAY BE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE
STRONGEST CELLS BUT NEARLY NON-EXISTENT WIND SHEAR WILL MEAN
ORGANIZED STRONG STORMS ARE NOT EXPECTED. THE ACTIVITY CURRENTLY
OVER OUR CWA WILL SLOWLY MOVE EAST BUT DIE OFF AS WE HEAD TOWARDS
SUNRISE. BUT, THE SHOWERS AND STORMS OVER SD WILL ALSO PUSH EAST AND
ENTER WESTERN MN AFTER SUNRISE THIS MORNING. THIS ACTIVITY WILL
WEAKEN WITH TIME BUT A FEW SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS ARE EXPECTED
OVER WESTERN INTO CENTRAL MN THIS MORNING. HIGHS WILL AGAIN WARM
INTO THE LOW TO MID 80S THIS AFTERNOON WHILE ANOTHER ROUND OF
THUNDERSTORMS IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP AS A SHORTWAVE APPROACHES. AS
OF NOW, CENTRAL MN INTO WEST-CENTRAL WI LOOKS LIKE THE MOST LIKELY
AREA OF SHOWERS AND STORMS INTO THIS EVENING. 1000-2500 J/KG OF CAPE
AND 30-35 KNOTS OF BULK SHEAR COULD MEAN FOR A COUPLE OF SUPERCELLS
CAPABLE OF DAMAGING WINDS AND LARGE HAIL. MOST OF THE WIND SHEAR IS
ABOVE 850 HPA SO THE CHANCE FOR TORNADOES IS VERY SMALL. CELLULAR
STORM MODE WILL LIKELY BE SHORT-LIVED AS THE LINEAR SHEAR PROFILE
FAVORS SPLITTING CELLS, WHICH CAMS HAVE GROWING INTO SMALL LINE
SEGMENTS. THE ACTIVITY WILL TRAVEL EAST AND EXIT OUR AREA LATE THIS
EVENING.
AMPLIFIED, UPPER-LEVEL RIDGING WILL BUILD OVER THE UPPER MIDWEST
THIS WEEKEND, LEADING TO DRY CONDITIONS SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY
AFTERNOON. HIGHS WILL BE SLIGHTLY WARMER IN THE MID 80S TO LOWER 90S
WITH THE LOWER 90S MORE WIDESPREAD ACROSS WESTERN MN SUNDAY.
HUMIDITY WILL ALSO INCREASE AS STRONG SOUTHERLY LOW-LEVEL FLOW
ADVECTS GREATER MOISTURE INTO THE REGION. THUS, SUNDAY
AFTERNOON/EVENING SHOULD FEEL QUITE HUMID. FORECAST MODELS SHOW
ANOTHER SHORTWAVE (ORIGINATING FROM THE BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA)
ARRIVING INTO THE UPPER MIDWEST SUNDAY NIGHT. GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD
AGREEMENT OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS PUSHING NORTH INTO SOUTHERN
MN SUNDAY NIGHT AND THEN SPREADING ACROSS MUCH OF THE CWA INTO
MONDAY AFTERNOON. SEVERE WEATHER DOESN'T SEEM LIKELY OWING TO THE
MODEST, SKINNY CAPE PROFILES AND LACK OF WIND SHEAR. BUT, SHOWERS
AND STORMS SHOULD BE EFFICIENT RAINFALL PRODUCERS AS PWATS WILL
RANGE FROM 1.5-2" WHILE MOIST ADIABATIC THERMAL PROFILES ARE DEEPLY
SATURATED. THE MAIN CAVEAT LIMITING THE CHANCES FOR HEAVY RAINFALL
WILL BE THE LACK OF SYNOPTIC LIFT, OWING TO THE WEAKENING OF THE
SHORTWAVE. STILL, AT LEAST 0.5" OF RAINFALL IS POSSIBLE SUNDAY NIGHT
THROUGH MONDAY.
ENSEMBLES AND DETERMINISTIC GUIDANCE BOTH SHOW THE UPPER-LEVEL
PATTERN UNDERGOING MORE AMPLIFICATION TOWARDS MID-NEXT WEEK. BROAD
TROUGHING WILL MOVE OVER THE WESTERN CONUS WHILE STRONG RIDGING
MOVES OVER THE EASTERN CONUS/SOUTHEAST CANADA. THIS WILL LEAVE THE
NORTHERN PLAINS IN SOUTHWESTERLY UPPER-LEVEL FLOW WITH SOUTHERLY LOW-
LEVEL FLOW UNDERNEATH. OUR FIRST SUMMER HEATWAVE LOOKS POSSIBLE MID-
NEXT WEEK WITH THE NBM ALREADY SHOWING WIDESPREAD HIGHS IN THE 90S
AND DEWPOINTS IN THE UPPER 60S TO MID 70S WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY.
THE COMBINATION OF TEMPERATURES AND DEWPOINTS WOULD PUSH HEAT
INDICES INTO THE 100S DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS EACH DAY. THE
FORECAST MAY SEEM ALARMIST OR "JUMPING THE GUN" BUT THE UPPER-LEVEL
PATTERN DOES LOOK TO SUPPORT STRONG HEAT. WITH THE HEAT AND
MOISTURE, INSTABILITY WILL ALSO LIKELY BE PRESENT AND ANY
DISTURBANCES IN THE FLOW COULD TAKE ADVANTAGE TO PRODUCE SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS. HOWEVER, FORECAST MODELS DON'T SHOW MUCH FOR
DEFINITIVE LIFT UNTIL THE UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE WESTERN CONUS
EJECTS EAST LATER NEXT WEEK.
AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY/
ISSUED AT 112 PM CDT FRI JUN 5 2026
SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON NORTH OF RWF
AND MKT. HIGHEST COVERAGE OF STORMS WILL BE AFTER 20-21Z, BUT
STILL NOT CONFIDENT ENOUGH FOR ANYTHING MORE THAN A PROB30 FOR
NOW, EXCEPT AT RNH EARLY THIS EVENING. TS WILL WEAKEN AND
DISSIPATE NEAR SUNSET WITH CLEARING SKIES LATE EVENING. AREAS OF
FOG WILL DEVELOP OVERNIGHT, WITH IFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE.
KMSP...TOUGH CALL ON THE TIMING OF DIRECT IMPACTS, IF ANY AT
ALL, FROM TS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. GIVEN THE SCATTERED
NATURE OF THE EXPECTED CONVECTION, CONTINUED WITH THE PROB30
UNTIL STORMS BEGIN DEVELOPING AND TRENDS CAN BE DETERMINED.
/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/
SAT...VFR. WIND N AT 5-10 KTS, BECOMING E.
SUN...MAINLY VFR. CHC TSRA/MVFR LATE. WIND SE AT 10-15 KTS
MON...SHRA/TSRA LIKELY. MVFR POSSIBLE. WIND SE 5-10 KTS.
MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MN...NONE.
WI...NONE.
DISCUSSION...CTG
AVIATION...BORGHOFF
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