792
FXUS63 KMPX 052349
AFDMPX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
649 PM CDT WED AUG 5 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- QUIET WEATHER TODAY AND TOMORROW, WITH RAIN CHANCES RETURNING
ON FRIDAY.
- ISOLATED STORM CHANCES LINGER THROUGH THE REST OF THE PERIOD,
WITH THE BEST CHANCE SATURDAY NIGHT.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 113 PM CDT WED AUG 5 2026
THE FAIR WEATHER CUMULUS HAS LARGELY BEEN CONFINED TO WESTERN WI
AND SOUTHEASTERN MN SO FAR THIS AFTERNOON WITH SOME WISPY HIGH
CLOUDS ALSO MOVING THROUGH ON WHAT IS OTHERWISE A GORGEOUS DAY
ACROSS THE REGION. TEMPERATURES ARE COMFORTABLE IN THE LOW TO
MID 70S EXPECTED TO REACH THE MID TO UPPER 70S THIS AFTERNOON
BEFORE DROPPING BACK INTO THE 50S TONIGHT. TOMORROW SHOULD BE A
BIT WARMER THAN TODAY, BACK TO THE LOW TO MID 80S AS BREEZY
SOUTHERLY WINDS ARE EXPECTED AHEAD OF WHAT WILL BE OUR NEXT
CHANCE FOR PRECIPITATION ARRIVING ON FRIDAY VIA A WEAK COLD
FRONT. THE TIMING OF THE FRONT HAS TRENDED EARLIER WITHIN THE
LAST 24 HOURS OF MODEL RUNS, GENERALLY ARRIVING AROUND 12 HOURS
EARLIER THAN PREVIOUSLY FORECAST BY MOST OF THE GUIDANCE AS WE
HAVE JUST REACHED THE RANGE WHERE SOME OF THE CAMS ARE STARTING
TO PICK UP ON IT. THE EARLIER TIMING WILL ALLOW THE STRONGEST
SHOWERS TO ARRIVE FROM THE NORTHWEST WITH A BIT OF NOCTURNAL LOW
LEVEL JET ENHANCEMENT, HOWEVER BY THE TIME IT REACHES THE MPX
CWA IT WILL BE AFTER SUNRISE SUCH THAT THEY SHOULD REMAIN FAIRLY
WEAK. DUE TO HOW WEAK THE SURFACE LOW AND FRONTAL BOUNDARY ARE,
WE ARE NOT EXPECTING ANY SORT OF SIGNIFICANT WIDESPREAD RAINS
OR EVEN STORMS FROM THIS ROUND, WITH MOST OF THE AREA BEING
FAIRLY DRY OR LESS THAN A FEW HUNDREDTHS OF AN INCH. THOSE WHO
MANAGE TO SEE A SLIGHTLY STRONGER SHOWER OR EVEN A WEAK
THUNDERSTORM COULD SEE A TENTH OF AN INCH OR TWO AT THE MOST
THROUGH THE END OF FRIDAY.
THERE IS STILL A NOTABLE WARM BIAS WITHIN THE GEFS/FV3 SUITE OF
GUIDANCE AS WE HEAD THROUGH THE WEEKEND AND INTO EARLY NEXT
WEEK, AS THEY ARE PRODUCING A MUCH STRONGER RIDGE TO THE
SOUTHWEST WHICH IS ALLOWING FOR A MUCH GREATER DEGREE OF LOWER
LEVEL WARMING COMPARED TO THE MUCH COOLER EPS/ECMWF. THE NBM HAS
GENERALLY FAVORED THE EPS SOLUTION WITH HIGHS IN THE LOW TO MID
80S THROUGH THE WEEKEND AND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK, WHICH SEEMS
MOST REALISTIC AS THE FV3 CORE LIKELY IS KEEPING A LINGERING
WARM BIAS DUE TO THE HOT WEATHER WE OBSERVED THROUGHOUT JULY. ON
TOP OF THE WARM BIAS, THERE ARE CONCERNS DUE TO THE UPSTREAM
FLOW BEING SOURCED FROM A REGION WITH ACTIVE WILDFIRES RESULTING
IN UPPER LEVEL SMOKE WHICH WOULD HELP KNOCK DOWN TEMPERATURES
BY A DEGREE OR TWO. WEAKER LOWER LEVEL WARMING WOULD ALSO GIVE
US BETTER CHANCES FOR FAIR WEATHER CUMULUS OR EVEN SOME ISOLATED
STORM ACTIVITY BY REDUCING ANY SORT OF LOWER LEVEL CAP AND
ALLOWING US TO TAP INTO SOME INSTABILITY. GIVEN THE UPPER LEVEL
FLOW FAVORING WEST-NORTHWEST TO NORTHWESTERLY, SOME RIDGE-RIDER
STYLE SHORTWAVE IMPULSES ARE ALSO POSSIBLE, FURTHER ADDING TO
THE DAILY CLOUD COVER/ISOLATED STORM CHANCES. ALL THESE THINGS
COMBINED, WE GENERALLY FAVOR THE COOLER SOLUTION COMPARED TO THE
RED HOT GEFS/FV3. AS WE GET A BIT CLOSER AND INTO THE SHORTER-
CAM RANGES, WE SHOULD HAVE A BETTER IDEA ON DIURNAL THUNDERSTORM
CHANCES. FOR NOW, THE BEST CHANCES REMAIN FRIDAY AND SATURDAY
NIGHT, WITH LOW CONFIDENCE AFTERWARDS.
AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY/
ISSUED AT 644 PM CDT WED AUG 5 2026
QUIET WEATHER CONDITIONS WITH SOME MID-HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS
STREAMING FROM WEST TO EAST ACROSS THE REGION. WINDS WILL
PREDOMINANTLY BE OUT OF THE S/SW THROUGH THE PERIOD, BECOMING
GUSTY TO AROUND 15-20 KTS TOMORROW AFTERNOON.
KMSP...NO ADDITIONAL CONCERNS.
/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/
FRI...VFR, CHC -SHRA. WIND SW 5-10G20KTS.
SAT...VFR. WIND S 5-10KTS.
SUN...VFR. WIND NNE 5KTS.
MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MN...NONE.
WI...NONE.
DISCUSSION...TDH
AVIATION...BED
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