995
FXUS63 KMPX 071754
AFDMPX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
1154 AM CST SAT FEB 7 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- FLURRIES OR A DUSTING OF SNOW POSSIBLE ACROSS WESTERN
WISCONSIN TONIGHT, THOUGH LIKELY MORE DRY THAN NOT.
- ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES & RELATIVE DRY CONDITIONS CONTINUE
INTO NEXT WEEK.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 225 AM CST SAT FEB 7 2026
MUCH COOLER AIR HAS SETTLED IN THIS MORNING, WITH MANY LOCATIONS
NORTH OF I-94 DROPPING INTO THE SINGLE DIGITS ALREADY. WINDS
WILL INCREASE OUT OF THE SOUTHEAST AHEAD OF A SUBTLE WAVE ON
THE BACKSIDE OF THE EXITING HIGH PRESSURE TODAY. THIS WILL ALLOW
FOR SOME REBOUND IN TEMPERATURES, THOUGH MANY LOCATIONS WILL LIKELY
STAY IN THE 20S, OUTSIDE OF SOUTHWEST MN. THERE REMAINS A LOW
CHANCE (LESS THAN 20 PERCENT) FOR LIGHT PRECIPITATION ACROSS
PARTS OF WESTERN WI TONIGHT, THOUGH FORECAST SOUNDINGS WOULD
SUGGEST THAT WE DO NOT SATURATE ENOUGH TO SUPPORT NOTABLE
SNOWFALL. WE EXPECT MOSTLY FLURRIES OR A LIGHT DUSTING AT BEST,
IF ANY PRECIP EVEN FALLS AT ALL.
OUR WARM-UP CONTINUES INTO THE START OF NEXT WEEK WITH
PERSISTENT SOUTHERLY WINDS AND GREATER HEIGHTS BUILDING ALOFT
THROUGH MONDAY. SURFACE TEMPERATURES WILL BE A SOLID 10 TO 15F
ABOVE NORMAL, WITH SOUTHWEST MN HAVING THE BEST CHANCE TO EXCEED
50F. PRIMARILY ZONAL FLOW ALOFT WILL MODERATE CONDITIONS
THROUGH THE REST OF THE WEEK, WITH SEVERAL CHANCES FOR WEAK
WAVES TO PRODUCE LIGHT PRECIP. THERE IS NO SIGNAL FOR A MAJOR
PATTERN CHANGE THROUGH MID-FEBRUARY, WITH ABOVE AVERAGE
TEMPERATURES AND A THAW LIKELY TO CONTINUE THROUGH NEXT WEEKEND.
THIS IS HIGHLIGHTED BY THE CPC'S LATEST 6-10 AND 8-14 DAY
OUTLOOKS.
AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY/
ISSUED AT 1108 AM CST SAT FEB 7 2026
VFR THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD, BUT CEILINGS WILL GRADUALLY DECREASE
OVER THE COURSE OF THE PERIOD. MID LEVEL CIGS WILL THEN
GRADUALLY LOWER TO THE LOW-VFR LEVELS TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY
MORNING. MODEL GUIDANCE SUPPORTS LOWER CIGS SUNDAY MORNING BUT I
TRIED TO MAINTAIN LOW VFR VS MVFR CIGS. WINDS WILL REMAIN
GENERALLY SE THROUGHOUT, WITH PEAK SPEEDS UPWARDS OF 15G25KTS
DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS, PARTICULARLY IN CENTRAL AND WESTERN
MN. WINDS WILL THEN DROP OFF AFTER SUNSET THIS EVENING, WITH
SPEEDS UNDER 10KTS.
KMSP...NO ADDITIONAL CONCERNS.
/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/
MON...VFR. WIND SW 5 KTS BECOMING SE.
TUE...VFR. WIND NW 5-10 KTS.
WED...VFR. WIND NW 5-10 KTS BECOMING NE.
MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MN...NONE.
WI...NONE.
DISCUSSION...BED
AVIATION...BPH
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