847
FXUS63 KMPX 270031
AFDMPX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
731 PM CDT MON OCT 26 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- HIGH CONFIDENCE RAIN CONTINUES TODAY AND RETURNS ON WEDNESDAY,
LOWER CONFIDENCE RAIN CHANCES THIS WEEKEND.
- AFTER A COOLER DAY TODAY, WARMER AIR RETURNS FOR THE REST OF
THE WEEK WITH SOME LOW 70S POSSIBLE ON WEDNESDAY.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 153 PM CDT MON OCT 26 2026
TODAY AND TOMORROW... RAIN CONTINUES TO FALL ACROSS MUCH OF
SOUTHERN MINNESOTA AND WESTERN WISCONSIN THIS AFTERNOON. THIS
AREA OF STRATIFORM RAIN WILL GRADUALLY SHIFT TO THE NORTH THIS
AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING. SOME MORE ISOLATED TO SCATTERED RAIN
SHOWERS COULD COME TOGETHER SOUTH OF THIS MAIN AREA OF RAIN THIS
EVENING INTO TONIGHT. THIS IS ALL DRIVEN BY A SHORTWAVE OFF TO
OUR WEST. THE PVA INDUCED SYNOPTIC LIFT COMBINED WITH WARM AND
MOIST SOUTHERLY FLOW AT 850 MB HAS GIVEN US A SOLID RAIN SETUP.
THIS FLOW HAS DRIVEN PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES UP ABOVE THE
90TH PERCENTILE BOTH IN OBSERVED CLIMATOLOGY BASED ON THE 12Z
MPX SOUNDING THIS MORNING AND THE NAEFS ANALYSIS. IN ADDITION,
ALL THIS SATURATION HAS ALSO KEPT US IN CLOUD COVER. THESE
CLOUDS WILL PERSIST WELL INTO TOMORROW. THIS CLOUD COVER HAS
HELPED TO KEEP TEMPERATURES LOW TODAY WITH HIGHS STRUGGLING TO
GET OUT OF THE 40S. ON THE OTHER SIDE, TEMPERATURES WILL NOT
FALL MUCH TONIGHT DUE TO THESE SAME CLOUDS. TEMPERATURES
TONIGHT WILL ALSO BE BUOYED BY SOME WAA. AS THE PRIMARY FORCING
SHIFTS NORTH SOME RAIN CHANCES WILL CONTINUE ACROSS CENTRAL
MINNESOTA INTO TOMORROW MORNING. TOMORROW LOOKS TO BE WARMER AS
WAA OCCURS WITH HIGHS IN THE 50S TO SOME LOWER 60S SOUTH OF I-94
AND EAST OF I-35.
WEDNESDAY TO THURSDAY... THE EARLY WEEK WAA WILL CONTINUE AS WE
MOVE INTO WEDNESDAY. THIS WILL SET WEDNESDAY UP TO BE THE
WARMEST DAY OF THE WEEK. HIGHS GENERALLY IN THE 60S, BUT LOWER
70S ARE ALSO LIKELY (MOST LIKELY ACROSS SOUTHERN MN AND WESTERN
WI). THIS WARM UP WON'T LAST LONG AS A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE
THROUGH LATE WEDNESDAY. THIS COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE WILL ALSO BE
THE DRIVER FOR OUR NEXT ROUND OF RAIN. THIS SHOULD BE A QUICKER
ROUND OF RAIN AS IT WILL BE FORCED BY THIS FRONT RATHER THAN
TODAY'S BROADER SCALE FORCING. THIS MEANS BY THURSDAY MORNING
RAIN CHANCES WILL BE FALLING OFF QUICKLY AND SOME OF THE
LINGERING POPS ARE MORE BASED ON SOME TIMING DIFFERENCES WITHIN
ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE. WITH THE WARMER AIRMASS AHEAD OF THE FRONT
THERE COULD BE ENOUGH INSTABILITY FOR SOME THUNDERSTORMS ON
WEDNESDAY AHEAD OF THE FRONTAL PASSAGE. THE MODEST INSTABILITY
WILL MAKE IT UNLIKELY FOR DEEP CONVECTION AND THEREFORE SEVERE
STORMS TO OCCUR. LOOKING TOWARDS THURSDAY'S TEMPERATURES, THIS
POST-FRONTAL AIRMASS WILL BE COOLER THAN WEDNESDAY. DUE TO HIGH
PRESSURE CLEARING THE SKIES THOUGH, TEMPERATURES WILL STILL BE
ABOVE NORMAL WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE MID 50S TO MID 60S ON
THURSDAY.
FRIDAY INTO THE WEEKEND... FRIDAY LOOKS FAIRLY SIMILAR TO
THURSDAY WITH THE EXCEPTION OF THE CLOUDS STARTING TO RETURN
LATE AS THE NEXT SYSTEM STARTS TO MOVE IN FROM THE WEST. STILL A
FAIR AMOUNT OF SPREAD IN HOW THIS SYSTEM PLAYS OUT THIS WEEKEND,
SO NBM POPS REMAIN BROAD AND LOW. IN GENERAL, WHEN COMPARING
THE GLOBAL ENSEMBLE SYSTEMS SOUTHERN MINNESOTA HAS THE HIGHEST
CHANCE WITH MORE MEMBERSHIP GIVING RAIN CHANCES THAN LOCATIONS
TO THE NORTH. AS WE MOVE INTO THE MIDDLE OF THIS WEEK THERE
SHOULD BE MORE CONVERGENCE IN THE VARIOUS MEMBERS OF THE
ENSEMBLES FOR US TO GAIN MORE CONFIDENCE IN WHERE THIS ROUND OF
RAIN WILL OCCUR. THE OVERALL MOVEMENT OF THIS SYSTEM THOUGH DOES
LOOK TO BRING BACK THE SOUTHERLY FLOW AND ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPERATURES LOOK TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE WEEKEND. LOOKING
FARTHER AHEAD INTO LONG RANGE GEFS GUIDANCE IT COULD BE WELL
INTO NOVEMBER BEFORE MSP AIRPORT, THE TWIN CITIES OFFICIAL
CLIMATE SITE, FALLS BELOW FREEZING. THE RECORD LATEST FREEZING
TEMPERATURE IS NOVEMBER 18TH FROM 2016, SO STILL A WHILE TO GO.
GEFS MEANS THOUGH SHOW THAT IT COULD BE CLOSE TO OR AFTER THIS
RECORD WHEN MSP FINALLY FALLS BELOW FREEZING.
AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY/
ISSUED AT 722 PM CDT MON OCT 26 2026
LIGHT RAIN PERSISTS THROUGH THE NIGHT WITH VISIBILITY STICKING
IN THE 4 TO 7 MILE RANGE DURING THE RAIN. CEILINGS START OUT
MVFR AT MOST SITES & LOOK TO BRIEFLY LIFT FOR A FEW FEW HOURS
DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS FROM SOUTHERN MINNESOTA THROUGH
WESTERN WISCONSIN. LOW CEILINGS BUILD BACK BY TOMORROW MORNING
WITH IFR THROUGH THE MORNING ACROSS WEST-CENTRAL MINNESOTA &
MVFR ELSEWHERE. CEILINGS GRADUALLY LIFT THROUGH TOMORROW
AFTERNOON BUT STILL REMAIN PREDOMINATELY MVFR.
WINDS WILL BE BREEZY TONIGHT WITH EASTERLY GUSTS AROUND 20 KTS
THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. WINDS BECOME MORE SOUTHEASTERLY BY
TOMORROW MORNING WITH GUSTS DIMINISHING & SPEEDS CLOSE TO 10
KTS. WINDS BECOME MORE SOUTHERLY TO SOUTHWESTERLY THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON.
KMSP...LOW CLOUDS HAVE CURRENTLY SCATTERED OUT & IT REMAINS
UNCERTAIN WHEN MVFR CEILINGS MAY RETURN. NEIGHBORING SITES
REMAIN LARGELY MVFR SO WE DO EXPECT AT LEAST A FEW HOURS OF MVFR
THIS EVENING, BUT CEILINGS ARE ALSO STILL EXPECTED TO LIFT TO
VFR AFTER MIDNIGHT. MVFR CEILINGS RETURN TOMORROW MORNING,
BETWEEN 8-10 AM, & STAY THERE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. WINDS
REMAIN EASTERLY THROUGH THE NIGHT WITH SPORADIC GUSTS TO 20
KTS. DIRECTION BECOMES MORE SOUTHEASTERLY THROUGH THE MORNING &
EVENTUALLY SOUTH TO SOUTH-SOUTHWESTERLY BY THE AFTERNOON.
/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/
WED...CHC -SHRA/MVFR. WIND S 5-10KTS.
THU...VFR. WIND NW 5-10KTS.
FRI...VFR. CHC -SHRA LATE. WIND E 5-10KTS.
MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MN...NONE.
WI...NONE.
DISCUSSION...NDC
AVIATION...ETA
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