737
FXUS63 KMPX 221733
AFDMPX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
1133 AM CST SUN DEC 22 2024
KEY MESSAGES
- TRENDING DRIER FOR THE SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY PERIOD.
DUSTING OF SNOW MOST LIKELY IN WESTERN WISCONSIN ALONG WITH
POTENTIAL FOR FREEZING DRIZZLE.
- A WARMING TREND WILL OCCUR THIS WEEK WITH HIGHS IN THE LOW TO
MID 30S BY CHRISTMAS AND NEAR 40S POSSIBLE BY LATER IN THE
WEEK.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 303 AM CST SUN DEC 22 2024
WITH THE RECENT QUICK BURST OF COLD AIR ON ITS WAY OUT, THE LOW FOR
TODAY OCCURRED AT MIDNIGHT AS TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO RISE
THROUGH THE DAY. AFTERNOON HIGHS SHOULD REACH THE UPPER 20S IN
CENTRAL MN AND LOW 30S IN SOUTHERN MN AND WESTERN WI. PARTLY TO
MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES ARE EXPECTED AGAIN TODAY AHEAD OF A BRIEF
SHORTWAVE DISTURBANCE TO ARRIVE LATE TONIGHT. LOOKING AT THIS
SHORTWAVE IN MORE DETAIL, RECENT GUIDANCE HAS SIGNIFICANTLY CUT QPF
ACROSS THE AREA, WITH ONLY A FEW HUNDREDTHS EXPECTED IN WESTERN WI
AND JUST A TRACE IN CENTRAL MN. THIS DECREASE IN FORECAST QPF IS A
RESULT OF AN UNEVENLY SATURATED VERTICAL PROFILE. FORECAST SOUNDINGS
DEPICT DISCONTINUITIES BETWEEN WHEN THINGS SATURATE AT DIFFERENT
LEVELS, WITH A DECENT AMOUNT OF DRY AIR TO OVERCOME. THIS ISN'T TO
SAY NOTHING WILL HAPPEN, BUT WE HAVE SCALED BACK THE FORECAST QUITE
A BIT FROM A FEW DAYS AGO. FREEZING DRIZZLE IS STILL POSSIBLE,
PARTICULARLY IN WESTERN WI WHERE FORCING AND SATURATION ALIGN EARLY
MONDAY MORNING. FOR ANYONE WITH TRAVEL PLANS ON MONDAY, IT IS A GOOD
IDEA TO REMAIN ALERT TO WEATHER CONDITIONS AS IT DOESN'T TAKE MUCH
TO CREATE A SLICK SURFACE. IN ALL, A FEW TENTHS OF SNOW ARE POSSIBLE
IN WESTERN WI, WITH MN SEEING COSMETIC SNOW AT BEST. A FEW
HUNDREDTHS OF FREEZING DRIZZLE ARE POSSIBLE, AGAIN IN WESTERN WI,
EARLY MONDAY MORNING.
AFTER THIS DISTURBANCE MOVES EAST BY MIDDAY MONDAY, WE REMAIN POP
FREE THROUGH CHRISTMAS WITH GRADUALLY WARMING TEMPERATURES. WHILE
THE PRECIPITATION CHANCES MOVE OUT, THE CLOUDS WILL NOT AS PARTLY TO
MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES ARE FORECAST TO STICK AROUND FOR MUCH OF THE
PERIOD. DESPITE THE BLANKET OF CLOUDS AND WARMING TEMPERATURES,
THINGS SHOULD REMAIN COOL ENOUGH THROUGH THE 25TH TO ENSURE A WHITE
CHRISTMAS FOR MOST, BUT THE SAME CANNOT BE SAID FOR NEW YEAR'S EVE.
THE DAY AFTER CHRISTMAS, HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL APPROACH THE UPPER
30S AND RAIN COULD MAKE AN APPEARANCE DRIVEN BY AN UPPER-LEVEL
TROUGH. A GOOD AMOUNT OF SPREAD BETWEEN MODELS LEADS TO GREAT
UNCERTAINTY IN WHEN THE BEST CHANCE IS FOR PRECIPITATION. THE BEST
WE CAN REPRESENT THIS AT THIS TIME IS TO RUN WITH WHAT THE NBM
OUTPUTTED: A SEVERAL DAY PERIOD OF 20-40% POPS. AS THINGS NEAR, THIS
TIMEFRAME WILL NARROW. WHAT WE CAN SAY WITH MEDIUM CONFIDENCE IS
THAT THE P-TYPE WILL BE MAJORITY, IF NOT ALL, RAIN WITH NIGHTTIME
LOWS NEAR/SLIGHTLY ABOVE FREEZING IN AREAS WHERE WE ANTICIPATE
PRECIPITATION.
THINGS LOOK BRIEFLY QUIET AGAIN AFTER THE LATE WEEK SYSTEM BEFORE
THE SIGNAL RETURNS FOR WHAT COULD BE A WET NEW YEAR'S EVE. WITH
TEMPERATURES MODERATING CLOSER TO NORMAL BY THAT TIME, THIS COULD BE
ANOTHER WINTRY MIX SCENARIO. FOR NOW, THIS IS JUST SOMETHING TO KEEP
AN EYE ON FOR ANY HOLIDAY TRAVEL PLANS.
AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY/
ISSUED AT 1122 AM CST SUN DEC 22 2024
SKIES ARE CLEARING LATE THIS MORNING WITH ANOTHER DECK OF HIGH
CLOUDS EXPECTED TO ARRIVE DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON. VFR
CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE UNTIL 06Z OR SO BEFORE MOST FALL INTO
MVFR WITH A WEAK DISTURBANCE MOVING THROUGH. SOME LIGHT SNOW
AND/OR FREEZING DRIZZLE IS POSSIBLE ACROSS CENTRAL MINNESOTA,
BUT OUR WISCONSIN SITES HAVE THE HIGHEST CHANCES OF SEEING
IMPACTS THROUGH MONDAY MORNING. CIGS/VIS WILL CONTINUE TO FALL
BY SUNRISE TOMORROW WITH IFR FOR ALL THROUGH THE END OF THE TAF
PERIOD. WINDS WILL GO LIGHT AND VARIABLE OVERNIGHT BEFORE
BECOMING NORTHWESTERLY AT 10KTS OR LESS.
KMSP...STILL DON'T HAVE THE CONFIDENCE TO GO MORE THAN A PROB30
FOR THE LIGHT SNOW/DRIZZLE REFERENCED ABOVE. IN ANY CASE, LOW
MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH MUCH OF THE MORNING
BEFORE CEILINGS BEGIN TO COME UP TO MVFR.
/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/
TUE...MVFR/VFR. WIND S 5-10KTS.
WED...MVFR/VFR. WIND SE 5-10KTS.
THU...MVFR/VFR, CHC -RA/-SN. WIND SE 5-10KTS.
MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MN...NONE.
WI...NONE.
DISCUSSION...PV
AVIATION...DYE
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