126
FXUS63 KMPX 071130
AFDMPX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
630 AM CDT WED OCT 7 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- ABOVE AVERAGE TEMPERATURES AND A FEW BREEZY DAYS ARE EXPECTED
THROUGH THIS WEEKEND, SPAWNING FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS.
- NEXT WIDESPREAD CHANCE FOR PRECIP DOESN'T ARRIVE UNTIL EARLY
NEXT WEEK.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 320 AM CDT WED OCT 7 2026
LATEST WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS TROUGHING CONTINUING TO SINK
SOUTHEASTWARD OVER NORTHERN MN AND LAKE SUPERIOR. THE PARENT LOW
PRESSURE CENTER ASSOCIATED WITH THIS TROUGH WILL MOVE IN OVER THE
HUDSON BAY REGION LEAVING THE UPPER-JET LOCALLY OVER THE NORTHERN
PLAINS. THIS WILL HELP DEVELOP SCATTERED MID TO HIGH CLOUDS
THROUGH THE COURSE OF TODAY. GIVEN THE PASSAGE OF THIS SYSTEM,
IT IS EXPECTED TO BE ANOTHER BREEZY DAY WITH WIND GUSTS,
ESPECIALLY NORTH AND EAST OF I-94 COULD RANGE BETWEEN 20-25 MPH
LATER THIS MORNING INTO THE AFTERNOON. TEMPERATURES WILL NOT BE
AS WARM AS THEY WERE YESTERDAY. GIVEN OUR WINDS HAVE SHIFTED
NW'LY COOLER AIR SHOULD HAVE NO ISSUE MIXING TOWARDS THE
SURFACE. CENTRAL MN CAN ANTICIPATE HIGHS IN THE UPPER 60S WHILE
SOUTHERN MN SEE THE LOWER 70S. AS THE FORECAST REMAINS DRY,
WARMER TEMPS COMBINED WITH BREEZY CONDITIONS WILL SUPPORT
CONTINUED ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS, ESPECIALLY ACROSS
PORTIONS OF WESTERN MN.
COME THURSDAY, THE APEX OF THE UPPER-TROUGH SLIDES EAST OVER THE
EASTERN GREAT LAKES REGION. UPPER-RIDGING ACCOMPANIED WITH BUILDING
1020MB SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL KEEP THE FORECAST QUIET FOR THE
REST OF THE WEEK. THURSDAY'S HIGHS WILL BE CLOSER TO SEASONAL VALUES
(MID-60S) BUT ARE EXPECTED TO REBOUND QUICKLY FOR THE WEEKEND. THE
FORECAST REMAINS QUIET BUT AN ONLY EXCEPTION IS THAT GUIDANCE WAS
TRYING TO GENERATE A WEAK DISTURBANCE FRIDAY AFTERNOON ACROSS THE
WEST-CENTRAL PLAINS AND PERHAPS PRODUCE SOME WEAK RAIN SHOWERS
ACROSS SOUTHERN MN. HOWEVER, LATEST NBM POPS HAVE BETTER CONFIDENCE
FOR SEEING RAINFALL IS WITHIN IOWA. FOR SATURDAY, H850 TEMPERATURE
ANOMALIES ARE FORECASTED (+12-16 DEG) TO BE SIMILAR TO WHAT WE SAW
YESTERDAY. CURRENTLY THE NBM IS FORECAST TO WARM HIGHS INTO THE
LOWER 80S FOR MOST AREAS SATURDAY BUT GIVEN THE WARMER
VERIFICATION FROM OBS ON TUESDAY, ITS POSSIBLE THAT SATURDAY'S
HIGHS MAY BE NEEDED TO NUDGE WARMER. ADDITIONALLY, INCREASED
WINDS BETWEEN 30-40 MPH WILL BE POSSIBLE AS A SURFACE WARM FRONT
SWEEPS THROUGH. THIS WILL CREATE ANOTHER DAY OF ELEVATED FIRE
WEATHER CONCERNS. RAINFALL CHANCES REMAIN IN PLACE FOR EARLY
NEXT WEEK AS ANOTHER LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVE ACROSS THE
NORTHERN PLAINS. AS MENTIONED IN THE PREVIOUS DISCUSSION, TOTAL
QPF APPEARS TO BE DECREASING. TEMPS WILL RETURN TO THE UPPER
50S AND LOWER 60S.
AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY/
ISSUED AT 628 AM CDT WED OCT 7 2026
A MIX OF CLEAR SKIES AND SCATTERED UPPER-LEVEL CLOUDS WILL MOVE
THROUGH FROM NW TO SE THROUGHOUT THIS FORECAST PERIOD. THE
FORECAST REMAINS ON TRACK WITH NW WINDS BECOMING WNW'Y BY MID-
MORNING. WIND GUSTS WILL THEN INCREASE TO GUSTS BETWEEN
20-25KTS. GIVEN THAT TODAY WILL BE ANOTHER GOOD DAY FOR MIXING,
ITS POSSIBLE THAT WIND GUSTS COULD REACH CLOSER TO 25-30KTS
BEFORE DECREASING THIS EVENING.
KMSP...NO ADDITIONAL CONCERNS.
/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/
THU PM...VFR. WIND WNW 10-15 KTS.
FRI...VFR. WIND SW 5-10KTS BECOMING SE.
SAT...VFR. WIND SSW 15-20G30KTS.
MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MN...NONE.
WI...NONE.
DISCUSSION...DUNLEAVY
AVIATION...DUNLEAVY
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