196
FXUS63 KMPX 261211
AFDMPX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
611 AM CST MON JAN 26 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- VERY COLD TEMPERATURES CONTINUE WITH WIND CHILLS VALUES REACHING
30 TO 40 BELOW ZERO THIS MORNING. A COLD WEATHER ADVISORY REMAINS IN
EFFECT UNTIL 11 AM TODAY.
- LIGHT SNOW ACROSS WESTERN WI COULD PRODUCE MINOR ACCUMULATIONS
THIS EVENING. ADDITIONAL LOW CHANCES FOR FLURRIES AND LIGHT SNOW
THROUGHOUT THE WEEK.
- COLDER THAN AVERAGE TEMPERATURES THIS WEEK BUT A WARMING TREND
ARRIVES NEXT WEEKEND
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 343 AM CST MON JAN 26 2026
ALL REMAINS CALM, QUIET, AND COLD EARLY THIS MORNING. SURFACE
TEMPERATURES RANGING IN TEENS BELOW ZERO WITH RELATIVELY LIGHT
WINDS. UNLIKE LAST NIGHT, THIS ADDED WIND HAS ALLOWED FOR WIND CHILL
VALUES TO FALL AS LOW AS 30 TO 40 BELOW ZERO. A COLD WEATHER
ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 11 AM THIS MORNING. SO ENSURE TO
BUNDLE THE LITTLE ONES UP BEFORE HEADING OUT TO THE BUS STOP.
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE FROM YESTERDAY WILL ADVANCE SOUTH TODAY
CLEARING THE PATH FOR A MID-LEVEL WAVE TO SWEEP ACROSS NORTHERN
MN INTO NORTHWESTERN WI. AS THIS WAVE APPROACHES, A WARM FRONT
WILL HELP DRIVE TEMPERATURES WARMER BY LATE THIS AFTERNOON PRIOR
TO THE ARRIVAL OF THE TRAILING COLD FRONT THAT MOVES THROUGH
TONIGHT. FORECAST HIGHS WILL REACH THE MID TO UPPER
TEENS SOUTH OF I- 94. WINDS WILL BECOME BREEZY TODAY WITH GUSTS
BETWEEN 25 TO 35 MPH. WITH THE INCREASE IN WIND SPEEDS, ITS
POSSIBLE THAT SOME AREAS ACROSS SOUTHERN MN COULD SEE PATCHY
BLOWING SNOW IN UNSHELTERED AREAS. LIGHT SNOW CONTINUES TO LOOK
LIKELY ACROSS WESTERN WISCONSIN THIS AFTERNOON. GIVEN AGREEMENT
AMONGST EPS MEMBERS FOR LIGHT SNOW, HAVE INCREASED POPS HIGHER
TO DEFINITE VALUES FOR AREAS EAST OF RICE LAKE DOWN THROUGH EAU
CLAIRE. SNOW ACCUMULATIONS CONTINUE TO RANGE NEAR A HALF-INCH
OR LESS. MEANWHILE FARTHER WEST, A SLIGHT CHANCE OF FLURRIES IS
POSSIBLE MAINLY NORTH I-94 IN MINNESOTA.
AS MENTIONED IN THE PREVIOUS DISCUSSION REGARDING THE LONG TERM
FORECAST, NORTHWEST FLOW WILL CONTINUE THIS WEEK WITH
OCCASIONAL BOUTS OF REINFORCING COLD AIR. SOME FLURRIES ARE
POSSIBLE AT TIMES, BUT THE ATMOSPHERE SHOULD BE TOO DRY FOR ANY
MEANINGFUL ACCUMULATING SNOW. A MODERATING TREND SHOULD ARRIVE
NEXT WEEKEND AS A MILDER PACIFIC AIRMASS ENGULFS NORTH AMERICA.
THAT WARMER AIR ADVECTION WILL BE AIDED BY A CLIPPER SYSTEM
ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS AND RETURN FLOW FROM A LARGE HIGH
PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. THERE MAY BE A
BETTER CHANCE FOR LIGHT SNOW WITHIN THIS REGIME, BUT MODEL
CONSISTENCY HAS BEEN NOT BEEN GREAT.
AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z TUESDAY/
ISSUED AT 607 AM CST MON JAN 26 2026
VFR TO START, MVFR THIS EVENING, AND IFR SNOW LIKELY FOR EAU.
MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES WILL GRADUALLY FILL IN WITH HIGH LEVEL
FEW/SCT STRATUS THIS MORNING. A MID-LEVEL WAVE WILL MAKE ITS WAY
ACROSS MN/WI TODAY CAUSING SW WINDS TO INCREASE TO 20 TO 30 KTS
ACROSS ALL SITES BY THIS AFTERNOON. WINDS SHIFT NW ONCE THE
TROUGH PASSES OVERHEAD THIS EVENING AND GUSTS ARE EXPECTED TO
REMAINING BREEZY OVERNIGHT. NOW FOR PRECIP, HIGHEST CHANCES FOR
-SN TO OCCUR WOULD BE FOCUSED NEAR RNH AND EAU. IT IS POSSIBLE
THAT A FEW FLURRIES COULD REACH AS FAR WEST AS AXN TO STC LATE
THIS AFTERNOON HOWEVER, BEST SUPPORT FOR SNOW GROWTH WILL BE
OVER THE WI SITES. A HALF-INCH OR LESS OF ACCUMULATION CAN BE
EXPECTED FOR THE WI SITES. CIGS WILL BE SLOW TO RECOVER AFTER
THE WAVE PASSES. ALL SITES (EXCEPT FOR RWF) WILL REMAIN
BORDERLINE MVFR/LOW VFR THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD.
KMSP...MAIN CONCERN FOR TODAY WILL BE DECREASING CIGS DOWN TO MVFR
LATER THIS EVENING. RIGHT NOW THE CURRENT THINKING FOR THAT TO OCCUR
IS BETWEEN 4 TO 10Z. THERE IS A SUB 30% CHC OF -SN/FLURRIES TO OCCUR
MOSTLY BETWEEN 23 TO 02Z. STRONGER CHANCES OF SNOW EXIST EAST OVER
THE MN/WI BORDER. WILL MONITOR/AMEND FOR SNOW TRENDS WESTWARD IF
THEY OCCUR. SW WINDS BECOMING BREEZY THIS AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING
HOURS WITH GUSTS BETWEEN 20-25KTS. AFTER 4Z, WINDS WILL SHIFT NW AND
REMAINS BREEZY FOR THE REST OF THE PERIOD.
/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/
TUE PM...VFR. WIND NW 10-15 KTS.
WED...VFR. WIND NW 5-10 KTS.
THU...VFR. WIND N 5-10 KTS.
MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MN...COLD WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 11 AM CST THIS MORNING FOR ANOKA-
BENTON-BLUE EARTH-BROWN-CARVER-CHIPPEWA-CHISAGO-DAKOTA-
DOUGLAS-FARIBAULT-FREEBORN-GOODHUE-HENNEPIN-ISANTI-
KANABEC-KANDIYOHI-LAC QUI PARLE-LE SUEUR-MARTIN-MCLEOD-
MEEKER-MILLE LACS-MORRISON-NICOLLET-POPE-RAMSEY-REDWOOD-
RENVILLE-RICE-SCOTT-SHERBURNE-SIBLEY-STEARNS-STEELE-
STEVENS-SWIFT-TODD-WASECA-WASHINGTON-WATONWAN-WRIGHT-
YELLOW MEDICINE.
WI...COLD WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 11 AM CST THIS MORNING FOR BARRON-
CHIPPEWA-DUNN-EAU CLAIRE-PEPIN-PIERCE-POLK-RUSK-ST. CROIX.
DISCUSSION...BORGHOFF/DUNLEAVY
AVIATION...DUNLEAVY
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