487
FXUS63 KMPX 121718
AFDMPX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
1118 AM CST MON JAN 12 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- THAWS TODAY AND TUESDAY, WITH HIGHS IN THE WELL INTO THE 30S
AND 40S BOTH DAYS. LIKELY THE LAST THAW FOR JANUARY.
- LIGHT MIXED PRECIPITATION POSSIBLE NORTHEAST OF I-94 MONDAY
NIGHT/TUESDAY MORNING.
- UNSETTLED THURSDAY AND FRIDAY, WITH LIGHT SNOW, THOUGH IT ONLY
LOOKS TO AMOUNT TO UP TO 4 INCHES OF ACCUMULATION.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 134 AM CST MON JAN 12 2026
TEMPERATURES HAVE STRUGGLED TO COOL DOWN OVERNIGHT WITH MILD
WESTERLY WINDS AND UPPER LEVEL CLOUD COVER KEEPING TEMPERATURES
ELEVATED. THIS WILL SET THE STAGE FOR A MILD DAY TODAY WITH A
PACIFIC AIRMASS IN PLACE. BASED ON HOW TEMPERATURES HAVE PERFORMED
IN THESE AIRMASSES THIS MONTH, HIGHS TODAY WILL LIKELY OVERACHIEVE
WHAT THE NBM HAS FOR HIGHS, SO WE DID BOOST TODAY'S HIGHS UP TO THE
NBM 90TH PERCENTILE VALUES. THIS WILL GIVE US HIGHS IN THE 40S
POSSIBLY PUSHING AS FAR NORTH AS THE TWIN CITIES, WHILE SNOW FREE
AREAS IN SOUTHWEST MN MAY FLIRT WITH 50.
TONIGHT INTO TUESDAY MORNING, A STRONG SHORTWAVE WILL TRACK FROM
NORTHEAST NODAK INTO NORTHERN WI. WE WILL BE ON THE WARM SIDE OF
THIS SYSTEM, WITH STRONG ISENTROPIC LIFT LIKELY TO RESULT SOME LIGHT
PRECIP GETTING DOWN TO ABOUT A ST. CLOUD TO EAU CLAIRE LINE LATE
TONIGHT INTO TUESDAY MORNING. THIS PRECIP WILL BE ENCOUNTERING A WARM
NOSE WITH TEMPS WELL ABOVE FREEZING, WHICH MEANS WHATEVER REACHES
THE GROUND, IT LOOKS TO DO SO AS LIQUID. FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW US
BEING QUITE WARM THOUGH, WITH ANOTHER ROUND OF JANUARY RAIN LOOKING
TO BE THE MOST LIKELY P-TYPE WITH THIS BAND OF PRECIPITATION. THOUGH
THE FARTHER NORTHEAST YOU GET IN THE MPX COVERAGE AREA, THE COOLER
IT WILL BE, WHICH MEANS SOME FREEZING RAIN WILL BE POSSIBLE TUESDAY
MORNING OVER NORTHWEST WI, SO A FUTURE WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY MAY
BE NEEDED NORTH OF I-94 IN WESTERN WI DEPENDING ON JUST HOW MUCH
PRECIP WE CAN GET THIS FAR SOUTHWEST, ALONG WITH WHAT SIDE OF
FREEZING OUR SURFACE TEMPERATURES WILL BE. WE'LL THEN GET ONE MORE
MILD DAY BEHIND THIS MORNING PRECIP ON TUESDAY, THOUGH WE HAVE SEEN
925-850MB TEMPERATURES TREND DOWN A LITTLE FOR TUESDAY, WHICH JUST
MEANS TUESDAY LOOKS TO HAVE HIGHS SIMILAR TO MONDAY AS OPPOSED TO
BEING A FEW DEGREES WARMER.
TUESDAY NIGHT WILL FEATURE STRONG CAA, WITH WINDS LOOKING TO GUST UP
TO AROUND 40MPH. ALTHOUGH POPS ARE PRETTY MINIMAL, AS WE GO THROUGH
THE NIGHT, WE'LL SEE TEMPERATURES IN THE STRATUS LAYER COOL INTO THE
DGZ, WHICH MEANS WE SHOULD START GETTING SOME FLURRIES AS WELL,
THOUGH THIS MOISTURE LAYER LOOKS SHALLOW, SO IT'S UNLIKELY WE'LL GET
ENOUGH SNOW TO ACCUMULATE. FOR WEDNESDAY, WE GET COLD AND DRY
HIGH PRESSURE. THIS MEANS WE'LL GET TO SEE SOME SUN, THOUGH
HIGHS WEDNESDAY WILL BE RUNNING A GOOD 20 DEGREES COOLER THAN
WHAT WE'LL SEE TUESDAY.
FOR THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT, NOT MUCH HAS CHANGED IN THIS
PERIOD FROM THE PREVIOUS FEW FORECASTS. WE'LL SEE MULTIPLE
WAVES RIPPLE ACROSS THE AREA IN PERSISTENT NORTHERLY FLOW. WE'LL
SEE A PRETTY STRONG N-S ORIENTED THERMAL GRADIENT SETUP ACROSS
THE AREA ON THURSDAY, WITH HIGHS AGAIN PUSHING 40 NEAR THE SD
BORDER. THIS MEANS WE'LL LIKELY SEE SNOW TRANSITION TO RAIN
THURSDAY AFTERNOON IN WESTERN MN BEFORE COLDER AIR ARRIVES
THURSDAY NIGHT TO CHANGE US OVER TO SNOW FOR GOOD. BASICALLY, IT
LOOKS LIKE ONCE SNOW STARTS FLYING ON THURSDAY, IT DOESN'T STOP
UNTIL SATURDAY MORNING. BY SATURDAY MORNING, MUCH OF OUR AREA
SHOULD HAVE SEEN 0.2" TO 0.3" OF QPF FALLING AS SNOW, WITH AN
OVERACHIEVING SNOWFALL AMOUNT OVER THE MULTI DAY PERIOD LOOKING
TO BE 4 INCHES. MOST OF THIS SNOW WE GET THIS PERIOD LOOKS TO
COME THURSDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING AS IT INITIALLY MOVES IN AND
THERMAL GRADIENTS WILL BE STRONGEST. SO THERE'S POTENTIAL FOR
NEEDING ADVISORIES ON THURSDAY DEPENDING ON HOW THE HEAVIER SNOW
LINES UP WITH THE THURSDAY EVENING COMMUTE.
BEHIND THIS SNOW, IT WILL BE MUCH COLDER FOR THE WEEKEND, ESPECIALLY
ON SATURDAY, WHERE HIGHS WILL STRUGGLE TO GET OUT OF THE SINGLE
DIGITS. IN ADDITION TO BE COLDER, THIS MAY ALSO BE THE START OF
ANOTHER CLIPPER WAVE TRAIN PATTERN LIKE WE SAW AT THE BEGINNING OF
DECEMBER. TIME WILL TELL, BUT THE SECOND HALF OF JANUARY IS
CERTAINLY LOOKING TO BE MUCH COLDER THAN THE FIRST HALF OF THE MONTH
AND FEATURE MORE SNOW AS WELL, WITH THE COLD JANUARY RAINS LOOKING
TO BE DONE AFTER TUESDAY MORNING.
AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY/
ISSUED AT 1118 AM CST MON JAN 12 2026
CLEAR SKY TO HIGH CLOUD VFR TODAY. MORE CLOUDS MOVE IN AS WE
HEAD INTO TONIGHT, BUT HOLDING VFR FOR THE MOST PART. MVFR
LIKELY IN WISCONSIN ASSOCIATED WITH THE RAIN SHOWERS.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE KEY HERE AS THEY WILL BE NEAR FREEZING. THE
BEST CHANCE FOR FREEZING RAIN WILL BE AT EAU.
WINDS WILL BE LIGHT TODAY FROM THE WEST SHIFTING TO THE
SOUTHWEST THIS EVENING AND NORTHWEST TOMORROW MORNING. WINDS
WILL BE HIGHER JUST OFF THE SURFACE SO LLWS HAS BEEN ADDED TO
MOST TAFS. WIND SHEAR WILL COME TO AN END IN THE MORNING
TOMORROW AS SURFACE WINDS INCREASE.
KMSP...CHANCE FOR RAIN REMAINS BEST NORTH OF THE TERMINAL.
CAN'T RULE OUT SOME RAIN, BUT TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN ABOVE
FREEZING SUCH THAT IT WOULD JUST BE SOME BRIEF RAIN AND NOT
FREEZING. WINDS ALOFT WILL INCREASE BEFORE WINDS AT THE SURFACE
PROVIDING A PERIOD OF MAINLY SPEED BASED LLWS IN THE MORNING
BEFORE THE SURFACE WINDS PICK UP LATER IN THE MORNING.
/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/
WED...VFR, CHC MVFR EARLY. WIND N 10-15 KTS.
THU...MVFR/-SN LIKELY, CHANCE IFR/LIFR. WIND S 5-10 KTS.
FRI...MVFR/-SN LIKELY, CHANCE IFR. WIND NW 10-15G25 KTS.
MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MN...NONE.
WI...NONE.
DISCUSSION...ETA
AVIATION...NDC
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