280
FXUS63 KMPX 090148
AFDMPX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
848 PM CDT SAT AUG 8 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- DRY AND COMFORTABLE CONDITIONS REMAINDER OF TODAY WITH HIGHS
INTO THE LOWER 80S.
- THE NEXT BEST CHANCES FOR RAIN COMES TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY
MORNING, SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY MORNING, AND EARLY TUESDAY
MORNING.
- A FEW STORMS EACH OF THOSE PERIODS MAY BE STRONG TO SEVERE,
MAINLY OVER SOUTHWESTERN AND SOUTHERN MINNESOTA.
- TEMPERATURES TO REMAIN VERY CLOSE TO NORMAL VALUES INTO THE
MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK, THEN DROP BELOW NORMAL LATE NEXT WEEK.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 217 PM CDT SAT AUG 8 2026
OVERALL, NOT A LOT OF CHANGES IN THE FORECAST FROM PREVIOUS FORECAST
PACKAGES. A SOMEWHAT ACTIVE WEATHER PATTERN WITH DAILY CHANCES OF
SHOWERS AND STORMS ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH THE PERIOD.
TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE WEEKEND AND INTO NEXT WEEK WILL HOVER RIGHT
AROUND THE SEASONAL AVERAGE, BECOMING SLIGHTLY BELOW AVERAGE BY THE
END OF NEXT WORK WEEK AND WEEKEND.
REMAINDER OF TODAY & SUNDAY
FAIR AND TRANQUIL WEATHER CONDITIONS CONTINUE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON
AND EVENING. CURRENT DP TEMPS AS OF 1:00PM ARE IN THE 50S ACROSS THE
METRO (VERY COMFORTABLE) WITH TEMPERATURES IN THE MIDDLE TO UPPER
70S. SLIGHTLY HIGHER DP TEMPS RESIDE FURTHER SOUTH AND WEST ACROSS
MN. THE NEXT SHOT OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE LATE THIS
EVENING, AND MORE SO DURING THE OVERNIGHT/EARLY SUNDAY MORNING
TIMEFRAME.
BIGGER PICTURE LOOKING ALOFT, UPPER LEVEL MONSOON HIGH PRESSURE OVER
THE DESERT SW AND FOUR CORNERS REGIONS WITH CORRESPONDING LONGWAVE
TROUGH OVER HUDSON BAY WITH CONTINUE TO PROMOTE ZONAL FLOW TO SLIGHT
NW FLOW ALOFT OVER THE REGION. THE SLOWLY MOVING TO SOMEWHAT
STAGNANT UPPER LEVEL HUDSON BAY LOW WILL ROTATE LOBES OF ENERGY
SOUTHEAST OUT OF THE CANADIAN PRAIRIES AND ACROSS THE NORTHERN
PLAINS AND UPPER MIDWEST. THE FIRST SUBTLE BUT SUFFICIENT LOBE
OF ENERGY WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION LATE TONIGHT AND INTO
TOMORROW MORNING. THE QUESTION AT HAND, WILL THIS LOBE OF ENERGY
OFFER ENOUGH FORCING FOR CONVECTION AS IT MOVES BY OVERHEAD?
LOOKING FURTHER DOWN IN THE COLUMN, THIS ENERGY IS MORE
APPARENT AT 700MB AS IT MOVES THROUGH DURING THE OVERNIGHT
TIMEFRAME. AT 850MB, A NOTICEABLE 850MB LLJ DEVELOPS ACROSS NW
MO, SE NE AND INTO IA WITH IT'S NORTHERN FRINGE NOSING INTO
SOUTHERN MN WITH 20-30KT SW 850MB WINDS ACROSS SOUTHERN HALF OF
MN. AT THE SURFACE, SURFACE LOW WILL DEVELOP OVER CENTRAL SD IN
RESPONSE TO THE UPPER LEVEL ENERGY, WITH CORRESPONDING WARM
FRONT SURGING NORTH AHEAD OF THE LLJ JUST.
HIGH RES GUIDANCE SHOWS SUFFICIENT MOISTURE ADVECTION ACROSS
SOUTHERN AND SOUTHWESTERN MN WITH DP TEMPS IN THE UPPER 60S TO
AROUND 70 DEGREES LATE TONIGHT AND EARLY SUNDAY MORNING. THIS WARM
FRONT, IN COMBINATION WITH STRENGTHENING 850MB FLOW, AND INCOMING
UPPER LEVEL LOBE OF ENERGY, ALONG WITH SUFFICIENT INSTABILITY AND
SHEAR PARAMETERS MAY PROMOTE ROBUST CONVECTION TONIGHT. THE SECOND
QUESTION AT HAND IS, WHERE WILL STORM INITIATION OCCUR? THERE STILL
REMAINS QUITE A BIT OF DISCREPANCIES BETWEEN HIGH RES MODEL
GUIDANCE AND HIGH RES ENSEMBLE SUITES. BUT AS OF NOW, THE FOCUS
FOR STORM DEVELOPMENT WILL BE ACROSS EASTERN SD AND WESTERN MN,
WITH STORM PROGRESSION TOWARDS THE SE ACROSS SOUTHERN MN,
ESPECIALLY ALONG AND SOUTH OF MINNESOTA RIVER VALLEY. OUR
COLLEAGUES AT THE STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS A MARGINAL (1 OUT
5) RISK FOR SEVERE WEATHER ALONG AND SOUTH OF THE I-94 CORRIDOR.
THAT SAID, ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL BE
POSSIBLE DURING THE OVERNIGHT AND EARLY MORNING SUNDAY TIMEFRAME
FOR AREAS ALONG SOUTH OF I-94, WITH A FEW STORMS BECOMING
STRONG TO SEVERE. THE MAIN THREATS WILL BE STRONG TO SEVERE WIND
GUSTS, SOME HAIL, DANGEROUS LIGHTNING, AND HEAVY RAINFALL.
AFTER ACTIVITY PROGRESSES EAST DURING THE MORNING, ISOLATED SHOWERS
AND STORMS WILL EXIST FOR AREAS ALONG AND EAST OF THE I-35 ON SUNDAY.
NEXT WORK WEEK
ON MONDAY, GENERALLY QUIET AND FAIR WEATHER CONDITIONS WILL RESUME
WITH NEAR SEASONAL TEMPERATURES AND MOSTLY SUNNY TO PARTLY CLOUDY
SKIES. THE NEXT CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL BE ON TUESDAY AS
ANOTHER LOBE OF ENERGY ROTATES AND RACES SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE
REGION. THEREAFTER, THE AFOREMENTIONED HUDSON BAY UPPER LOW
WILL BEGIN TO WEAKEN AND MOVE EAST, GIVING THE AREA A BRIEF
PERIOD OF QUIET WEATHER THURSDAY AND FRIDAY BEFORE THE NEXT
SYSTEM BRINGS INCREASE RAIN/STORM CHANCES NEXT WEEKEND.
TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE SECOND HALF OF THE WEEK WILL BE NEAR TO
SLIGHTLY BELOW THE SEASONAL AVERAGE FOR THE MIDDLE OF AUGUST.
AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY/
ISSUED AT 837 PM CDT SAT AUG 8 2026
THE FORECAST STILL REMAINS VERY UNCERTAIN REGARDING THE
THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL OVERNIGHT INTO TOMORROW MORNING.
THUNDERSTORMS THIS EVENING ACROSS THE DAKOTAS & WESTERN
MINNESOTA HAVE NOT MATERIALIZED, MEANING THE MAIN THREAT NOW
LOOKS TO BE FROM THE EARLY MORNING HOURS INTO SUNDAY MORNING.
HIGH-RESOLUTION MODELS REMAIN WIDELY DIFFERENT ON HOW WIDESPREAD
SHOWERS & THUNDERSTORMS COULD BECOME, BUT GENERALLY THE GREATEST
COVERAGE & BEST CHANGES FOR IMPACTS FROM TSRA LOOKS TO BE
ACROSS WEST-CENTRAL & SOUTHERN MINNESOTA. THE ENDING TOME FOR
PRECIPITATION ALSO REMAINS UNCERTAIN, BUT GENERALLY WE LOOKS TO
BE RAIN FREE BY 10-11 AM, IF NOT EARLIER IF THE OVERNIGHT
STORMS ARE MORE SPARSE.
MID-LEVEL CLOUDS SPREAD EASTWARDS OVERNIGHT WITH CEILINGS
POSSIBLY APPROACHING MVFR ACROSS EASTERN MN & WESTERN WI
TOMORROW MORNING (BETTER CHANCES IF RAIN OCCURS). SOUTHWESTERLY
WINDS BETWEEN 5-10 KTS PERSISTS INTO TOMORROW MORNING, BUT THEN
THE WIND FORECAST BECOMES LESS CERTAIN WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR
OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES TO LINGER OVER THE AREA. SPEEDS WILL
GENERALLY BE 5 KTS OR LESS DURING THE MORNING & AFTERNOON.
KMSP...
THE BULK OF THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY OVERNIGHT INTO TOMORROW
MORNING LOOKS TO MAINLY STAY SOUTHWEST OF THE METRO, BUT COULD
STILL SEE SOME -SHRA WITH PERIODS OF THUNDER DURING THE MORNING.
MOST LIKELY WINDOW FOR THUNDER LOOKS TO BE A LITTLE LATER THAN
PREVIOUS FORECASTS, GENERALLY CENTERED AROUND 5-7 AM
/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/
MON...VFR. WIND E 5-10 KTS.
TUE...MAINLY VFR. CHC EARLY A.M. -SHRA. WIND NE 5-10 KTS.
WED...VFR. WIND N 5-10 KTS BECOMING NW.
MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MN...NONE.
WI...NONE.
DISCUSSION...LPR
AVIATION...ETA
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