194
FXUS63 KMPX 311340
AFDMPX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
840 AM CDT SUN MAY 31 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- SCATTERED SHOWERS & THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUE THROUGH MONDAY
ACROSS MN AND EXTREME WESTERN WI.
- BETTER CHANCE FOR MORE WIDESPREAD RAINFALL MID-WEEK.
- ABOVE-NORMAL TEMPERATURES CONTINUE THROUGH AT LEAST EARLY
JUNE.
UPDATE
ISSUED AT 840 AM CDT SUN MAY 31 2026
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUE ALONG A LINE FROM STEVENS
COUNTY TO FARIBAULT COUNTY. AS OF 8:30 AM, THE STRONGEST OF THE
ELEVATED STORMS WERE LOCATED ACROSS STEVENS & POPE COUNTIES IN
A REGION SUPPORTED BY 25-30KT LLJ WINDS & A GRADIENT OF 100-200
MUCAPES. LIGHTNING CONTINUES TO BE THE MAIN CONCERN WITH THIS
ACTIVITY, WHICH SHOULD DISPLAY A WEAKENING TREND AS THE LLJ
LIFTS NORTH IN THE NEXT FEW HOURS. WESTERN MN REMAINS THE PORTION
OF THE REGION FAVORED FOR MORE SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS TODAY. IT'S POSSIBLE THAT A FEW RAINDROPS ARE
OBSERVED ACROSS EASTERN MN/WESTERN WI, BUT THE COMBINATION OF A
WEDGE OF DRY LOW-LEVEL AIR (SAMPLED ON THE 12Z MPX RAOB) AND
LITTLE ELEVATED INSTABILITY WILL PROMOTE EVAPORATION OF SHOWERS.
WE SENT A FRESH POP UPDATE TO REFLECT THE LATEST HOURLY
FORECAST EXPECTATIONS.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 244 AM CDT SUN MAY 31 2026
OUR BAND OF SCATTERED SHOWERS HAS TRANSLATED NORTH & EAST
OVERNIGHT, NOW STRETCHING FROM SOUTHEAST MN UP TOWARDS WEST-
CENTRAL MN. WE HAVE SEEN REFLECTIVITY INCREASE ON RADAR AND MANY
SITES ARE STARTING TO REPORT LIGHT RAIN AS WE CONTINUE TO
OVERCOME THE DRY BOUNDARY LAYER. THIS BAND WILL LIFT NORTH AS A
FEW ADDITIONAL SHOWERS AND STORMS REDEVELOP ACROSS SOUTHWESTERN
MN LATER THIS MORNING. THERE CONTINUES TO BE A LOT OF ENERGY
TIED TO THE SHORTWAVE POSITIONED OVER THE CENTRAL ROCKIES,
FUELING OUR PERSISTENT RAIN CHANCES TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT. IT
REALLY IS NOT UNTIL MONDAY MORNING WHEN THE SURFACE LOW SPINS
NORTH INTO CANADA THAT OUR SHOWER AND CLOUD COVERAGE WILL START
TO WANE. IT'S WORTH NOTING THAT AN AREA OF SCATTERED STORMS IS
EXPECTED TO DEVELOP TO OUR WEST ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS DURING
THE AFTERNOON. BUILDING INSTABILITY AND STEEP LAPSE RATES WILL
SUPPORT A FEW STRONGER STORMS, WITH POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE HAIL
AND WIND. THE ENVIRONMENT BECOMES LESS FAVORABLE AS THE STORMS
HEAD EAST, BUT THERE IS A NONZERO CHANCE THAT ONE OR TWO OF THE
STRONGER STORMS CONTINUE INTO SOUTHWEST MN DURING THE EVENING.
BY MONDAY NIGHT, UPPER LEVEL RIDGING WILL DOMINATE THE UPPER
MIDWEST AGAIN.
MUCH OF TUESDAY AND THE FIRST HALF OF WEDNESDAY SHOULD BE QUITE
NICE WITH HIGHS IN THE MID 80S, MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES, AND LIGHT
WINDS. BY WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON, WE'LL START TO SEE A LOW LEVEL
RESPONSE TO THE REDEVELOPMENT OF THE SHORTWAVE OVER THE CANADIAN
ROCKIES. WINDS WILL BEGIN TO STRENGTHEN OUT OF THE SOUTH AND
CLOUD COVER WILL START TO EXPAND AS MOISTURE ADVECTION
INCREASES. AS THE SURFACE LOW SLOWLY TRACKS EAST THROUGH
SOUTHERN CANADA, A COLD FRONT WILL SAG ACROSS MN AND WI,
LINGERING THROUGH FRIDAY. THIS WILL GIVE WAY TO A CHANCE AT
SEVERAL ROUNDS OF RAIN, WITH THE GREATEST CONFIDENCE FOR AREA-
WIDE RAIN DURING THE DAY THURSDAY. THERE IS NOT A HIGH THREAT
FOR WIDESPREAD CONVECTION GIVEN LIMITED INSTABILITY, SO LATEST
QPF KEEPS MOST AREAS AROUND 0.25" TO 0.75" DURING THIS WINDOW.
IN SUMMARY, A HANDFUL OF FOLKS COULD SEE AN INCH OR MORE OF RAIN
OVER THE NEXT 7 DAYS, THOUGH IT RELIES ON LOWER END
ENVIRONMENTS AND LIGHTER RAINFALL RATES. TEMPERATURES REMAIN
WARM INTO NEXT WEEKEND AS ZONAL FLOW GIVES WAY BACK TO RIDGING
OVER THE GREAT LAKES.
AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z MONDAY/
ISSUED AT 642 AM CDT SUN MAY 31 2026
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGHOUT THIS DURATION BUT THERE WILL
BE SOME VERY LIGHT INTERMITTENT RAIN SHOWERS AT SEVERAL OF THE
TAF SITES OVER THE NEXT 24-30 HRS. THE BULK OF THE PRECIPITATION
WILL OCCUR OVER WESTERN AND SOUTHERN MN, THUS POTENTIALLY MOVING
ACROSS AXN-RWF-MKT THROUGH MID-SUNDAY AFTERNOON. MOST OF THE
PRECIP SHOWING UP ON KMPX RADAR MAY NOT REACH THE GROUND DUE TO
EXCEPTIONALLY DRY AIR UP TO AROUND 10 KFT, BUT ANY PRECIP THAT
DOES REACH THE TERMINALS WILL BE LIGHT AND IS NOT EXPECTED TO
RESULT IN A FLIGHT CATEGORY DEGRADATION FROM VFR. THERE MAY ALSO
BE A FEW THUNDERSTORMS OVER FAR WESTERN MN, MAINLY IMPACTING
AXN-RWF, WHICH COULD REDUCE VISIBILITIES INTO MVFR RANGE.
HOWEVER, GENERALLY SPEAKING, VISIBILITIES WILL REMAIN OVER 6SM
AND CEILINGS WILL DROP TO NO LOWER THAN 5-7KFT, AND GENERALLY
REMAIN AROUND 10 KFT. WITH SE WINDS REMAINING BREEZY THROUGH THE
EARLY MORNING HOURS, NO FOG IS EXPECTED.
KMSP...PRECIPITATION IS GENERALLY EXPECTED TO REMAIN SOUTH AND
WEST OF MSP THOUGH A FEW LIGHT SPRINKLES/SHOWERS MAY REACH THE
AIRPORT FROM TIME TO TIME THROUGH LATE THIS AFTERNOON. THAT
SAID, LITTLE TO NO IMPACTS ARE EXPECTED WITH ANY PRECIP THAT
MOVES ACROSS THE TERMINAL TODAY. A BIT BETTER CHANCE FOR MORE
FREQUENT SHOWERS COMES LATE TONIGHT INTO MONDAY MORNING SO
LATER TAFS WILL REFINE THAT PRECIP INSTANCE.
/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/
TUE...VFR. WIND SE 5-10 KTS.
WED...MAINLY VFR. CHANCE P.M. -SHRA/MVFR. WIND S 10G20 KTS.
THU...SHRA LIKELY. CHANCE TSRA/MVFR. WIND SW 10-15G25 KTS.
MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MN...NONE.
WI...NONE.
UPDATE...STRUS
DISCUSSION...BED
AVIATION...JPC
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