373
FXUS63 KMPX 202011
AFDMPX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
311 PM CDT SUN SEP 20 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- MOSTLY DRY CONDITIONS ON MONDAY, SCATTERED SHOWERS POSSIBLE
ACROSS SOUTHERN MN.
- DRIER CONDITIONS RETURN THIS WEEK WITH HIGHS IN THE MID TO
UPPER 60S.
- NEXT CHANCE FOR RAIN ARRIVES THURSDAY.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 305 PM CDT SUN SEP 20 2026
REMAINDER OF TODAY AND MONDAY
BROKEN TO OVERCAST SKIES WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE MAJORITY OF YOUR
SUNDAY. HIGH TEMPERATURES THIS AFTERNOON WILL TREND A FEW
DEGREES WARMER THAN SATURDAY, TOPPING OUT IN THE LOW TO MIDDLE
60S. ON MONDAY, SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE OVER CANADA WILL PROMOTE
DRYING TREND WITH MOISTURE VALUES DECREASING STEADILY. DP TEMPS
WILL FALL BACK INTO THE 40S ACROSS MOST OF THE FORECAST AREA. 50
DEGREE DP TEMPS REMAIN IN PLACE ACROSS SOUTHERN MN WHERE
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED RAIN SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE.
TUESDAY THROUGH NEXT WEEKEND
CRISP AND COOL NIGHTS CAN BE EXPECTED STARTING MONDAY NIGHT/TUESDAY
MORNING AND TUESDAY NIGHT/WEDNESDAY MORNING WITH FORECAST LOW
TEMPERATURES DROPPING INTO THE 40S AREAWIDE, WITH FEW AREAS
DROPPING INTO THE UPPER 30S. OTHERWISE, QUIET AND FAIR WEATHER
WILL PERSIST THROUGH WEDNESDAY WITH AFTERNOON HIGH TEMPERATURES
IN THE MIDDLE TO UPPER 60S.
WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY, A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL MOVE EAST
ACROSS THE DAKOTAS, RESULTING IN LOW-END CHANCES OF RAIN ACROSS
WESTERN MN. THE NEXT SLUG OF MOISTURE AND ASSOCIATED UPPER LEVEL
PIECE OF ENERGY WILL MOVE NORTH OUT OF THE SOUTHERN AND CENTRAL HIGH
PLAINS AND TOWARDS THE DAKOTAS ON THURSDAY. THIS FEATURE WILL NOT
OFFER TOO MUCH IN TERMS OF IMPACTFUL WEATHER. HOWEVER, IT WILL ALLOW
DP TEMPS TO INCREASE, ESPECIALLY ACROSS WESTERN MN WHERE RAIN
CHANCES INCREASE ON FRIDAY. THEREAFTER, THE UPPER FLOW REGIME
BECOMES MORE MESSY WITH DISCREPANCIES AND DIFFERENCES BETWEEN
BETWEEN RUN TO RUN DETERMINISTIC MODEL GUIDANCE. THAT SAID,
ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE HAS BEEN FAIRLY CONSISTENT, STILL HINTING AT
DRIER CONDITIONS NEXT WEEKEND WITH NEAR AVERAGE TO SLIGHTLY
ABOVE AVERAGE TEMPERATURES FOR THE END OF SEPTEMBER.
AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z TUESDAY/
ISSUED AT 1151 AM CDT SUN SEP 20 2026
A STRATOCUMULUS DECK NEAR 2000 FEET CURRENTLY STRETCHES FROM
WESTERN MN INTO CENTRAL WI. THIS FEATURE WILL SLOWLY MOVE
SOUTHEAST EVENTUALLY CAUSING MVFR AT RWF AND MKT BY EARLY THIS
AFTERNOON. BUT, DAYTIME HEATING WILL ALSO LIFT AND BREAK APART
THESE CLOUDS AS WE GO THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON, ALLOWING FOR VFR
CONDITIONS BY THIS EVENING. MID TO HIGH CLOUDS ARE EXPECTED
OVERNIGHT WITH ANOTHER ROUND STRATUS NEAR 5000 FEET DEVELOPING
DURING MONDAY MORNING. A MESSY TROUGH WILL MOVE INTO IA DURING
MONDAY, BRINGING AN INFLUX OF MOISTURE INTO SOUTHERN MN. HAVE
INCLUDED A PROB30 AT MKT FOR -SHRA AND MVFR CONDITIONS MID TO
LATE MONDAY MORNING. EAST-NORTHEASTERLY WINDS WILL GUST TO NEAR
20 KNOTS THIS AFTERNOON THEN SLOW TO 5-10 KNOTS FOR THE
REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD.
KMSP...MVFR SHOULD LAST UNTIL 22Z WHEN STRATOCUMULUS DECK BREAKS
APART ENOUGH AND LIFTS TO VFR. EAST-NORTHEAST WINDS WILL GUST TO
NEAR 20 KNOTS THIS AFTERNOON. ANOTHER MVFR STRATUS DECK IS
EXPECTED MID-MORNING TO LATE AFTERNOON MONDAY.
/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/
TUE...VFR. WIND E 5-10 KTS.
WED...VFR. WIND SE 5-10 KTS.
THU...VFR, CHC AM -SHRA. WIND SE 10 KTS.
MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MN...NONE.
WI...NONE.
DISCUSSION...LPR
AVIATION...CTG
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