153  
FXUS63 KMPX 301945  
AFDMPX  
 
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION  
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN  
245 PM CDT WED JUL 30 2025  
   
KEY MESSAGES
 
 
- POOR AIR QUALITY FROM CANADIAN WILDFIRE SMOKE CONTINUES INTO  
SATURDAY.  
 
- NEXT CHANCE FOR RAIN COMES LATE SUNDAY INTO MONDAY.  
 

 
   
DISCUSSION
 
 
ISSUED AT 214 PM CDT WED JUL 30 2025  
 
THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS FAR-SOUTHERN THIS MORNING HAVE MOVED INTO  
IOWA AS THE COLD FRONT CONTINUES TO SAG SOUTHWARDS THROUGH THE  
UPPER MIDWEST, WITH HIGH PRESSURE BEHIND THE FRONT LEADING TO  
COOL & DRY WEATHER INTO THIS WEEKEND. UNFORTUNATELY, A DENSE  
CONCENTRATION OF WILDFIRE SMOKE IS ACCOMPANYING THE COOLER  
AIRMASS OUT OF CANADA, WITH POOR AIR QUALITY EXPECTED INTO  
SATURDAY. THE DURATION OF THIS AIR QUALITY EVENT IS  
UNPRECEDENTED FOR MINNESOTA & WISCONSIN AS AQI LEVELS IN THE  
UNHEALTHY (RED) & UNHEALTHY FOR SENSITIVE GROUPS (ORANGE)  
CATEGORIES ARE EXPECTED TO PERSIST FOR SEVERAL DAYS AS LIGHTER  
WIND SPEEDS UNDER THE HIGH WILL KEEP THE SMOKE FROM DISSIPATING  
AND MIXING OUT. THERE WILL BE SOME TIMES OF BETTER AIR QUALITY  
THROUGH THIS PERIOD, PROBABLY DURING THE AFTERNOONS WHEN DAYTIME  
MIXING MAY HELP TO DILUTE THE SMOKE NEAR THE SURFACE, BUT TRY  
TO AVOID STRENUOUS OUTDOOR ACTIVITY DURING THE PERIODS OF WORST  
AIR QUALITY & KEEP WINDOWS CLOSED.  
 
OTHER THAN THAT... YOU CAN'T REALLY ASK FOR NICER CONDITIONS  
FOR LATE JULY/EARLY AUGUST AS DAYTIME TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED  
TO REMAIN IN THE 70S AND DRIER NORTHERLY WINDS KEEP DEW POINTS  
VERY COMFORTABLE IN THE LOW TO MID 50S. THE WEEKEND IS SHAPING  
UP TO BE QUITE PLEASANT, AS CURRENT FORECASTS SUGGESTION THE  
SMOKE CLEARING OUT SATURDAY AFTERNOON & OUR NEXT CHANCE FOR  
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS NOT ARRIVING UNTIL LATE ON SUNDAY.  
THESE LOOK TO BE TYPICAL SUMMERTIME SHOWER & THUNDERSTORM  
CHANCES, NOTHING LIKE THE ROUNDS OF SEVERE WEATHER & HEAVY RAIN  
WE'VE SEEN OVER THE LAST FEW WEEKS. TEMPERATURES RETURN TO MORE  
SEASONABLE VALUES THROUGH NEXT WEEK AS RIDGING BEGINS TO BUILD  
FROM THE SOUTHWEST INTO THE CENTRAL CONUS. DESPITE THE  
GENERALLY RISING HEIGHTS ALOFT, A FEW DISTURBANCES COULD BRING  
TYPICAL SUMMERTIME CHANCES FOR SHOWERS & THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH  
THE WEEK. WE MAY NOT BE DONE WITH THE POOR AIR QUALITY AS WELL,  
AS ANY OF THESE DISTURBANCES COMING OUT OF CANADA COULD BRING  
DOWN ANOTHER ROUND OF SMOKE FROM THE UNCONTAINED WILDFIRES  
ACROSS SASKATCHEWAN & MANITOBA.  
 

 
   
AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY/
 
 
ISSUED AT 111 PM CDT WED JUL 30 2025  
 
SMOKE CONTINUES TO FILTER INTO THE AREA FROM CANADA RESULTING  
IN WIDESPREAD REDUCTION IN VISIBILITY DOWN TO 4-6SM. MODEL  
GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THIS WAVE OF LOW-LEVEL SMOKE MOVES OUT OF THE  
AREA THIS EVENING, WITH ANOTHER ROUND OF SIMILAR VISIBILITY  
REDUCTIONS LOOKING POSSIBLE TOMORROW MORNING. OTHERWISE WE'LL  
HAVE SCATTERED CUMULUS THROUGH THE AFTERNOON WITH SOME MID TO  
UPPER LEVEL CLOUDS OVERNIGHT. EASTERLY WINDS GUST UP 20 KTS  
THIS AFTERNOON & THEN DISSIPATE AFTER SUNSET, WITH WINDS BRIEFLY  
BECOMING MORE NORTHEASTERLY OVERNIGHT.  
 
KMSP...VISIBILITY COULD BRIEFLY DROP TO MVFR CRITERIA WITH THE  
SMOKE THROUGH THIS EVENING.  
 
/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/  
FRI...CHANCE MVFR SMOKE. WIND SE 5-10 KTS.  
SAT...VFR. WIND S 5-10 KTS.  
SUN...VFR WITH SMALL CHANCE SHRA. WIND 10-15 KTS.  
 

 
   
MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
 
 
MN...NONE.  
WI...NONE.  
 

 
 

 
 
DISCUSSION...ETA  
AVIATION...ETA  
 
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