180
FXUS63 KMPX 161126
AFDMPX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
526 AM CST FRI JAN 16 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- TODAY, PERIODS OF SNOW, ALONG WITH GUSTY WINDS AND FALLING
TEMPERATURES.
- TODAY, GUSTY WINDS WILL COMBINE WITH BURSTS OF SNOW TO CAUSE
LOW VISIBILITY AND DIFFICULT TRAVEL AT TIMES IN OPEN AREAS
ACROSS WESTERN AND SOUTHERN MINNESOTA. A WINTER WEATHER
ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT THROUGH 6PM.
- LOOKING AHEAD, COLD TEMPERATURES THIS WEEKEND AND THROUGH NEXT
WEEK. THE COLDEST WILL BE MONDAY MORNING WITH WIND CHILLS OF
-20 TO -30 DEGREES.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 300 AM CST FRI JAN 16 2026
MAIN CHANGES TO THE FORECAST ARE SLOWER ARRIVAL OF SNOW FOR
TODAY, AND LOWER SNOW TOTALS OVERALL WITH THIS SYSTEM. HOWEVER,
DID KEEP THE WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY GOING SINCE THERE WILL
STILL BE REDUCED VISIBILITY FROM BURST OF SNOW AND GUSTY WINDS.
TODAY...EARLY MORNING SATELLITE IMAGERY, RADAR, AND SURFACE
OBSERVATIONS REVEALED JUST CLOUDS AND RELATIVELY WARM
TEMPERATURES OF MID 20S TO LOWER 30S ACROSS THE REGION. HOWEVER,
UPSTREAM THERE WAS AN ARCTIC FRONT APPROACHING FROM NORTH
DAKOTA. THIS FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH TODAY BRINGING GUSTY
NORTHWEST WINDS OF 30 TO 40 MPH, FALLING TEMPERATURES, ALONG
WITH PERIODS OF SNOW SHOWERS. DID CONTINUE TO LEAN ON THE HIGHER
END OF GUIDANCE FOR WIND GUSTS THIS MORNING THROUGH THIS
AFTERNOON.
WHILE SNOWFALL AMOUNTS SHOULD BE LESS THAN AN INCH, MOST IF NOT
ALL LOCATIONS WILL SEE AT LEAST SOME SNOW TODAY, SO DID INCREASE
CHANCES CLOSER TO 60 TO 80% SINCE THE ODDS OF REMAINING SNOW-
FREE ARE LOW. IN ADDITION, GUSTY WINDS WILL LEAD TO BLOWING
SNOW, MAKING IT VERY DIFFICULT TO MEASURE. MEANWHILE, FORECAST
SOUNDINGS SHOW TEMPERATURES COOLING BEHIND THE ARCTIC FRONT, BUT
BY MID-DAY WE SHOULD SEE A DEEP DENDRITIC GROWTH ZONE ALONG
WITH WEAK FORCING FOR ASCENT. THIS SHOULD LEAD TO SCATTERED SNOW
SHOWERS, AND FEEL THE APPROACH OF USING A WINTER WEATHER
ADVISORY IS MORE APPROPRIATE IN THIS ENVIRONMENT THAN TRYING TO
CAPTURE AREAS OF HEAVIER SNOW WITH MULTIPLE SNOW SQUALL
WARNINGS. AS FOR WHAT YOU CAN EXPECT, PERIODS OF REDUCED
VISIBILITY, WITH NEAR ZERO POSSIBLE AT TIMES IN OPEN AREAS, BUT
THERE IS NO SNOWPACK, SO ROADS SHOULD REMAIN POSSIBLE
THROUGHOUT THE EVENT.
TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY...OVERNIGHT, SNOW SHOWERS WILL TAPER
OFF AND TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO COOL. BY EARLY SATURDAY
MORNING, EXPECT LOWS RANGING FROM NEAR ZERO ACROSS CENTRAL AND
WESTERN MN, TO NEAR 10 ACROSS WESTERN WI. HIGHS WILL REBOUND
LITTLE IF ANY DURING THE DAY ON SATURDAY.
ON SUNDAY, ANOTHER CLIPPER SYSTEM WILL MOVE TO THE NORTH, AND
COULD BRING A BURST OF SNOW EARLY IN THE DAY. THIS SYSTEM WILL
BE DEVELOPING RIGHT OVER US, WHICH MAKES CONFIDENCE A LITTLE
LOWER THAN MOST SETUPS. IF IT DEVELOPS MORE QUICKLY, EXPECT
WIDESPREAD SNOW WITH UP TO A COUPLE INCHES POSSIBLE IN WESTERN
WI, BUT IF IT DEVELOPS A MORE SLOWLY, THEN MUCH OF MINNESOTA
WILL REMAIN DRY (LIKE THIS PAST THURSDAY), AND AREAS IN
WISCONSIN WILL RECEIVE LESS SNOW. FOR NOW, DID INCREASE CHANCES
FOR SNOW, AND WILL SEE IF THIS TREND CARRIES FORWARD WITH THE
NEXT MODEL GUIDANCE.
ONE THING THAT IS FOR SURE IS THAT A REINFORCEMENT OF COLD AIR
WILL PUSH THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT, LEADING TO WIND CHILLS OF -20 TO
-30 FOR MONDAY MORNING. THIS WOULD BE CLOSE TO EXTREME COLD
ADVISORIES THRESHOLDS, BUT NOT ANTICIPATING THE NEED FOR
WARNINGS.
LOOKING AHEAD, TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN COLD THE REST OF THE
WEEK, WITH A FEW CHANCES FOR LIGHT SNOW.
AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SATURDAY/
ISSUED AT 521 AM CST FRI JAN 16 2026
THE TIMING OF THE ARRIVAL OF -SN AND THE STRONGEST WINDS HAVE
BEEN DELAYED COMPARED TO THE 00Z/06Z TAF PERIODS, HOWEVER
OTHERWISE THERE HAVE BEEN NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO THE ONGOING
FORECAST. EXPECT MVFR CIGS WITH WINDOWS OF IFR VISIBILITY DUE TO
-SHSN AND BR, ESPECIALLY FOR AXN/RWF/MKT/STC WHERE WINDS WILL BE
STRONGER COMPARED TO MSP/RNH/EAU. SNOW ACCUMULATION WILL
GENERALLY REMAIN UNDER AN INCH OR TWO, WITH THE HIGHEST AMOUNTS
NEAR EAU/RNH. WINDS WILL REMAIN 300-330 IN DIRECTION,
INCREASING TO 15-20G30KTS BEFORE DIMINISHING BY THE END OF THE
PERIOD.
KMSP...PRIMARY TIMING WINDOW FOR THE LOWEST VIS DUE TO -SN WILL
BE ROUGHLY 16-20Z, HOWEVER -SN WILL CONTINUE THROUGH ROUGHLY 03Z
BEFORE DIMINISHING COMPLETELY. THE STRONGEST WINDS WILL ARRIVE
AN HOUR OR TWO LATER THAN THE HEAVIEST HOURLY SNOWFALL RATES,
HOWEVER SOME MINOR BLSN IS POSSIBLE.
/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/
SUN...MVFR/-SN LIKELY, CHC IFR/LIFR. WIND SW TO NW 10-15KTS.
MON...VFR. WIND NW 10-15KTS.
TUE...VFR. WIND W TO S 5KTS.
MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MN...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM CST THIS EVENING FOR BLUE
EARTH-BROWN-CHIPPEWA-DOUGLAS-FARIBAULT-FREEBORN-KANDIYOHI-
LAC QUI PARLE-MARTIN-MCLEOD-MEEKER-NICOLLET-POPE-REDWOOD-
RENVILLE-SIBLEY-STEARNS-STEVENS-SWIFT-TODD-WASECA-
WATONWAN-YELLOW MEDICINE.
WI...NONE.
DISCUSSION...JRB
AVIATION...TDH
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