867
FXUS63 KMPX 251157
AFDMPX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
657 AM CDT SAT APR 25 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- SHOWERS POSSIBLE THROUGHOUT THE DAY TODAY FOR PORTIONS OF
WESTERN/ CENTRAL MINNESOTA WITH MORE WIDESPREAD RAINFALL
ARRIVING LATE SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY.
- COOLER AND DRIER WEATHER FOR TUESDAY ONWARD WITH SOME NEAR OR
BELOW FREEZING TEMPERATURES POSSIBLE THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 250 AM CDT SAT APR 25 2026
A SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST ORIENTED BAND OF RAIN IS CUTTING ACROSS
EASTERN SOUTH DAKOTA INTO SOUTHWESTERN MINNESOTA THIS MORNING.
IT APPEARS THAT THIS PRECIP IS STILL FIGHTING THE LOW LEVEL DRY
AIR AS IS MOVES INTO MINNESOTA BASED ON SURFACE OBS. AS THE
LAYER MOISTENS OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS, EXPECTING SHOWER
ACTIVITY TO INCREASE IN COVERAGE UP INTO WEST CENTRAL MINNESOTA.
HAVE BOOSTED POPS AND QPF QUITE A BIT FOR THIS TIME PERIOD.
THERE LOOKS TO BE A COUPLE ROUNDS OF RAIN FOR TODAY WITH A SHORT
BREAK THROUGH MIDDAY BEFORE ADDITIONAL RAIN ARRIVES. QPF TOTALS
DURING THE DAY TODAY ARE GENERALLY A FEW HUNDREDTHS TO AROUND A
QUARTER INCH, CONCENTRATED OVER WESTERN MINNESOTA. RAIN CHANCES
RAMP UP AGAIN TONIGHT AND SHIFT INTO CENTRAL MINNESOTA WHERE
AROUND A QUARTER INCH OF RAIN IS POSSIBLE.
FOR SUNDAY INTO MONDAY, THERE WILL BE ANOTHER BREAK IN THE RAIN
CHANCES SUNDAY MORNING BEFORE A LOW MOVES ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS.
AMPLE WARM AIR AND MOISTURE ADVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH THIS LOW WILL
WORK TO INCREASE RAINFALL CHANCES AREA WIDE. QPF AMOUNTS OF 1 TO
1.5" THROUGH EARLY TUESDAY STILL SEEM REASONABLE, WITH A MARGINAL
RISK FOR EXCESSIVE RAINFALL HIGHLIGHTING EASTERN AND SOUTHERN
MINNESOTA AND ALL OF WISCONSIN. COOLER AIR WILL WORK IN BEHIND THIS
SYSTEM WITH HIGHS IN THE LOW TO MID 50S TUESDAY THROUGH THE END OF
THE WEEK. TEMPERATURE WISE, IT'S THE OVERNIGHT/MORNING LOWS THAT
WILL POSE A THREAT TO ANY SUSCEPTIBLE VEGETATION AS TEMPS FALL TO
NEAR FREEZING FOR SOME. WE'LL WARM BACK TO NEAR NORMAL BY THE END OF
THE PERIOD WITH CONTINUED DRY CONDITIONS.
AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SUNDAY/
ISSUED AT 650 AM CDT SAT APR 25 2026
WHAT YOU SEE NOW IS WHAT WE'LL SEE THE REST OF THE WEEKEND, A
BAND OF LIGHT RAIN WANDERING ACROSS MN. RAIN TODAY LOOKS REMAIN
NORTH OF MKT AND EAU, BUT ALL OTHER TERMINALS HAVE RAIN
CHANCES. MSP/RNH WILL BE THIS MORNING, WHILE RWF/AXN/STC WILL
HAVE THE CHANCE FOR SEVERAL HOURS RAIN THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING.
WE DID PULL BACK QUITE A BIT ON THE MVFR CIG MENTION THIS
PERIOD, WITH RAP SOUNDINGS SHOWING MVFR CIGS ARRIVING AROUND 21Z
AT RWF, WITH ALL OTHER TERMINALS NOT REALLY LOOKING TO SEE MVFR
CIG POTENTIAL INCREASE UNTIL LATE TONIGHT OR SUNDAY MORNING.
KMSP...AFTER A LITTLE LIGHT RAIN THROUGH 15Z, MSP LOOKS TO
REMAIN DRY UNTIL THE MAIN BATCH OF RAIN ARRIVES SUNDAY EVENING.
CIGS SHOULD REMAIN VFR UNTIL THAT MAIN BATCH OF SHOWERS ARRIVES
SUNDAY EVENING.
/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/
SUN...VFR, BCMG MVFR/-SHRA LATE. WIND E 5-10KTS.
MON...MVFR/RA LIKELY, CHC TSRA/IFR. WIND SE 10-15G25KTS.
TUE...MVFR/-SHRA EARLY, THEN VFR. WIND NW 15-20G30KTS.
MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MN...NONE.
WI...NONE.
DISCUSSION...DYE
AVIATION...MPG
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