273
FXUS63 KMPX 101050
AFDMPX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
550 AM CDT SAT OCT 10 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- NEAR RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURES TODAY AND TOMORROW.
- HOT AND WINDY CONDITIONS TODAY WILL PROVIDE FOR AN ELEVATED
FIRE WEATHER RISK, ESPECIALLY IN WESTERN MINNESOTA.
- NEXT WEEK TURNS COOLER AND MORE SEASONABLE WITH THE GREATEST
RAIN CHANCES ON THURSDAY.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 140 AM CDT SAT OCT 10 2026
THIS WEEKEND... A LOW OVER FAR SOUTHERN SASKATCHEWAN NEAR THE
INTERNATIONAL BORDER WILL SLOWLY TRACK EAST TOWARDS ONTARIO
THIS WEEKEND. THIS HAS US IN THE WARM SECTOR OF THIS LOW AND
CONTINUED WAA ALOFT WILL HELP LIFT US INTO THE 80S AND MAYBE
EVEN SOME LOWER 90S FOR HIGHS TODAY. THIS WILL CONTINUE INTO
SUNDAY WITH MORE WAA UNTIL THE COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THIS
LOW PASSES THROUGH LATE SUNDAY INTO EARLY MONDAY. AREAS THAT
REACH THE DIURNAL MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE BEFORE FRONTAL PASSAGE ON
SUNDAY (GENERALLY ALL BUT PARTS OF WESTERN MINNESOTA) COULD SEE
HIGHS NEAR OR ABOVE THE CURRENT RECORDS. OUR CURRENT FORECAST
HAS TODAY FALLING SHORT OF RECORD HIGHS, BUT TOMORROW BREAKING
RECORD HIGHS. TODAY IS FORECAST TO BE HOTTER, BUT TOMORROW HAS
LOWER RECORDS THAT ARE EASIER TO BREAK. FOR THE 10TH, THE
RECORDS ARE: MSP (90 IN 1928), STC (88 IN 1928), AND EAU (88 IN
1928). FOR THE 11TH, THE RECORDS ARE: MSP (85 IN 2015), STC (83
IN 2015), AND EAU (85 IN 1930).
ALL THIS WARMTH WILL ALSO PROMOTE AMPLE MIXING TODAY WHICH WILL
PROVIDE FOR A GUSTY LATE MORNING INTO EARLY EVENING. THE GUSTS
WILL BE HIGHEST ALONG THE BUFFALO RIDGE IN SOUTHWEST MINNESOTA.
IN ADDITION WE WILL WARM ENOUGH TODAY FOR RH VALUES TO FALL INTO
THE 30S WITH SOME UPPER 20S POSSIBLE IN WESTERN MINNESOTA. THIS
WILL PROVIDE FOR ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS IN WESTERN
MINNESOTA. THANKFULLY WE ARE STILL EARLY ENOUGH IN THE FALL THAT
VEGETATION HAS NOT DRIED OUT AND FUELS ARE NOT AS AVAILABLE AS
THEY WILL BE LATER IN THE SEASON. SO THE BIGGEST FIRE RISK WILL
BE AGRICULTURE RELATED WHERE CROPS HAVE BEEN DRIED OUT FOR
HARVESTING. DUE TO THIS WE ARE NOT EXPECTING TO ISSUE A RED
FLAG WARNING UNLESS RH VALUES COME IN MUCH LOWER THAN EXPECTED.
NEXT WEEK... MONDAY WILL SEE TEMPERATURES COME DOWN FROM THE
WEEKEND'S NEAR RECORD HIGHS AS WE MOVE INTO THE POST-FRONTAL AIR
MASS. THERE COULD ALSO BE SOME SHOWERS MONDAY AFTERNOON AS A
VERY SUBTLE SHORTWAVE FEATURE SHOULD MOVE ACROSS NORTH DAKOTA
INTO NORTHERN MINNESOTA. WHAT RAIN CHANCES OCCUR WITH THIS ARE
BEST TO OUR NORTH, BUT PARTS OF CENTRAL MINNESOTA COULD ALSO SEE
SOME LIGHT RAIN WITH THIS. OVERALL TEMPERATURES LOOK TO STAY
NEAR NORMAL OVER THE WEEK AHEAD OF THE NEXT SYSTEM PASSING
THROUGH ON THURSDAY. BEHIND THIS SYSTEM TEMPERATURE LOOK TO BE
BELOW NORMAL WITH HIGHS ONLY IN THE MID 50S. HOW GOOD OF A
CHANCE FOR RAIN WE HAVE THOUGH VARIES BETWEEN THE GLOBAL
DETERMINISTIC MODELS. THE EVOLUTION OF THE UPPER AIR PATTERN HAS
TWO PATHS WITH ONE EJECTING THE TROUGH OVER THE UPPER MIDWEST
(THIS GIVES US A GOOD CHANCE FOR A SOAKING RAIN) AND THE OTHER
KEEPS MORE OF A CUT OFF LOW OVER THE WESTERN CONUS (THIS WOULD
KEEP US ON THE DRY SIDE). THERE IS ALSO A GREATER SPREAD THE THE
ENSEMBLE SOLUTIONS THAN WE SAW 24 HOURS AGO. SO CONTINUED
CONFIDENCE IN COLDER MORE FALL LIKE AIR, BUT LOWER CONFIDENCE IN
THURSDAY'S RAIN CHANCE.
AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY/
ISSUED AT 533 AM CDT SAT OCT 10 2026
SOUTH-SOUTHWESTERLY LLWS OF 40-45 KNOTS WILL PERSIST OVER MOST
TERMINALS FOR THE FIRST FEW HOURS OF THE TAF PERIOD BEFORE
SURFACE WINDS INCREASE. SOUTHERLY SURFACE WINDS WILL INCREASE
INTO THIS AFTERNOON WITH SUSTAINED VALUES RANGING FROM 15-20
KNOTS WHILE GUSTS REACH 25-35 KNOTS (STRONGEST IN WESTERN MN).
WINDS SLOW SLIGHTLY THIS EVENING ALLOWING SOUTH-SOUTHWESTERLY
LLWS OF 45-50 KNOTS TO RETURN AGAIN. THIS LLWS WILL LAST THROUGH
SATURDAY NIGHT. VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED WITH MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES.
KMSP...SOUTH-SOUTHWESTERLY LLWS OF 45 KNOTS CONTINUES UNTIL 16Z
BEFORE SOUTHERLY SURFACE WINDS STRONGLY INCREASE. SUSTAINED
VALUES WILL BE AROUND 18 KNOTS WHILE GUSTS REACH 27-32 KNOTS
INTO THIS EVENING. THE LLWS RETURNS THIS EVENING THROUGH TONIGHT
AS SURFACE WINDS STEADILY SLOW TO JUST OVER 10 KNOTS BY 12Z
SUNDAY.
/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/
SUN...VFR. WIND S 10-15G20KTS.
MON...MAINLY VFR. CHC P.M. -SHRA/MVFR. WIND N 10G20KTS.
TUE...VFR. WIND N 5-10KTS.
MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MN...NONE.
WI...NONE.
DISCUSSION...NDC
AVIATION...CTG
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.
Main Text Page