722
FXUS63 KMPX 291123
AFDMPX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
623 AM CDT FRI MAY 29 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES CONTINUE THROUGH NEXT WEEK.
- MOST AREAS REMAIN MOSTLY DRY OVER THE NEXT 7 DAYS, OUTSIDE OF
PORTIONS OF WESTERN MN WHICH WILL SEE DAILY SCATTERED RAIN
CHANCES THROUGHOUT THE WEEKEND.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 225 AM CDT FRI MAY 29 2026
OMEGA BLOCKING REMAINS IN PLACE ACROSS NORTH AMERICA, KEEPING US
IN THIS WARM AND (MOSTLY) DRY PATTERN. SLIGHT KINKS WITHIN THE
FLOW ARE WHAT WILL PROVIDE ENOUGH FORCING FOR SCATTERED SHOWERS
AND STORMS TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE DAKOTAS AND WESTERN MN DURING
THE SECOND HALF OF THE DAY. THERE WILL BE A GOOD SURGE OF
MOISTURE ACROSS THE SAME AREA, WITH PWATS AROUND 150 TO 175
PERCENT OF NORMAL. THE GRADIENT OF MOISTURE LOOKS TO BE PRETTY
TIGHT, WITH SOUNDINGS SUGGESTING MUCH OF CENTRAL MN AND EASTWARD
WILL BE TOO DRY TO PRECIPITATE. EVERYWHERE ELSE WILL SEE AT
LEAST SCATTERED TO BROKEN CLOUDS SPREAD OVERHEAD THROUGHOUT MUCH
OF THE DAY. DESPITE THIS, FORECAST TEMPERATURES REMAIN QUITE
WARM WITH WIDESPREAD MID-UPPER 80S.
THE COMBINATION OF THESE WARM TEMPERATURES WITH LOW HUMIDITY
HAS PROMPTED THE MINNESOTA POLLUTION CONTROL AGENCY TO ISSUE AN
AIR QUALITY ALERT FOR OZONE POLLUTION WITHIN THE TWIN CITIES
METRO AREA. THE ONLY CAVEAT IS DETERMINING HOW THICK THE CLOUD
COVER WILL BE, WHICH WOULD IMPACT HOW MUCH SOLAR RADIATION
REACHES THE SURFACE TO INTERACT WITH POLLUTANTS. AS OF NOW,
MOSTLY MID-HIGH CLOUDS ARE EXPECTED WHICH WOULD STILL ALLOW
ENOUGH SUNLIGHT THROUGH. THIS WILL LAST FROM NOON THROUGH 9PM,
REALLY CENTERED AROUND THE EVENING RUSH WHEN TEMPERATURES ARE
WARM AND THERE IS AN INCREASE IN CAR TRAFFIC. BEST PRACTICES
INCLUDE LIMITING TIME OUTDOORS FOR SENSITIVE GROUPS AND REDUCING
ACTIVITIES THAT CONTRIBUTE TO AIR POLLUTION WHEN POSSIBLE.
HIGHS AND LOWS WILL REMAIN PRETTY PERSISTENT OVER THE NEXT 7
DAYS, STAYING ABOUT 10 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL FOR LATE SPRING.
THIS REALLY FEELS LIKE A SUMMER AIR MASS THROUGH AND THROUGH,
AND THERE IS NOT MUCH OF A SIGN THAT IT'LL BREAK DOWN ANYTIME
SOON. OUR PRECIPITATION CHANCES WILL STAY LARGELY ASSOCIATED
WITH ANY KINKS IN THE FLOW UPSTREAM OF THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE.
LONG RANGE ENSEMBLES HINT THAT LATE NEXT WEEK IS WHEN WE MAY SEE
MORE WIDESPREAD RAINFALL, BUT IT IS A STRETCH TO SAY THERE IS
ANY SORT OF MODEL CONSENSUS ON ANYTHING AT THIS POINT.
AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SATURDAY/
ISSUED AT 621 AM CDT FRI MAY 29 2026
SOLID VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGHOUT THIS DURATION. MAINLY
PASSING HIGH CLOUDS, OCCASIONALLY WITH BKN CEILINGS BUT MAINLY
SCT COVERAGE. SOME MID-LEVEL FAIR WX CUMULUS CLOUDS ARE POSSIBLE
DURING THE DAY TODAY BUT NOTHING OF CONSEQUENCE. THERE IS A
SMALL CHANCE OF RAIN SHOWERS IN FAR SW MN WHICH COULD MOVE TO
NEAR RWF BUT HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE GREAT LAKES EXTENDING
WESTWARD AND SUFFICIENTLY DEEP DRY AIR LOOKS TO PREVENT ANY
PRECIP FROM REACHING ANY OF OUR TAF SITES. WINDS WILL REMAIN SE
TO S THROUGHOUT WITH SPEEDS UNDER 10 KTS.
KMSP...NO ADDITIONAL CONCERNS.
/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/
SUN...VFR. WIND SE 10KTS.
MON...VFR. WIND E 5-10KTS.
TUE...VFR. WIND SE 5-10 KTS.
MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MN...NONE.
WI...NONE.
DISCUSSION...BED
AVIATION...JPC
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