041
FXUS63 KMPX 281137
AFDMPX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
637 AM CDT FRI AUG 28 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- OUR STRETCH OF CALM WEATHER COMES TO AN END TONIGHT INTO
TOMORROW.
- A MORE ACTIVE PERIOD LOOKS TO CONTINUE INTO NEXT WEEK WITH
MULTIPLE LOW CONFIDENCE CHANCES FOR MORE RAIN.
- TEMPERATURES GENERALLY ABOVE NORMAL, WITH HIGHS IN THE 80S,
OVER THE NEXT WEEK.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 215 AM CDT FRI AUG 28 2026
TODAY AND TOMORROW... ANOTHER MORNING WITH CLEAR SKIES AND
AMPLE COOLING. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR MORE FOG FORMATION AGAIN THIS
MORNING, WHICH WILL ONCE AGAIN LIFT QUICKLY AFTER SUNRISE AS
TEMPERATURES WARM. THERE COULD BE SOME ISOLATED DENSE FOG IN
LOW LYING AREAS AND NEAR BODIES OF WATER, BUT OVERALL WIDESPREAD
DENSE FOG IS NOT EXPECTED. OVERALL A VERY SIMILAR SETUP TO
YESTERDAY MORNING, SO EXPECTING A SIMILAR RESULT. THE HIGH
PRESSURE THAT HAS GIVEN US THIS STRETCH OF WEATHER WILL BE
MOVING OUT TODAY. OUR NEXT SYSTEM WILL BEGIN TO MOVE IN FROM
WEST TO EAST. DURING THE DAY THIS WILL BE LITTLE MORE THAN
GRADUALLY INCREASING CLOUDS. A SUBTLE MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE
COMBINED WITH THE ADVECTION OF WARMER AND MORE MOIST AIR WILL
PROVIDE THE CHANCE FOR RAIN TONIGHT INTO TOMORROW. FORECAST
SOUNDINGS CONTINUE TO SHOW THE CHANCE FOR SOME ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS WITHIN THIS RAIN, BUT THE CHANCES FOR STRONG TO
SEVERE STORMS REMAIN LOW. THE AMOUNT OF INSTABILITY AND LAPSE
RATES ARE JUST NOT SUPPORTIVE OF SEVERE CONVECTION AND SPC HAS
ALSO MAINTAINED A GENERAL THUNDER WITH THE MARGINAL RISK OFF
OVER THE DAKOTAS. TODAY WILL BE SLIGHTLY WARMER WITH HIGHS IN
THE 80S OWING THE THE WAA. TOMORROW WILL BE A LITTLE COOLER,
HIGHS IN THE UPPER 70S TO LOWER 80S, WITH THE RAIN MOVING
THROUGH PROVIDING FOR INCREASED CLOUD COVER.
SUNDAY INTO NEXT WEEK... THIS STILL LOOKS TO BE A PROGRESSIVE
PATTERN WITH MULTIPLE WAVES MOVING INTO THE UPPER MIDWEST. AS
SAID IN PAST DISCUSSIONS THERE REMAINS A LOT OF SPREAD WITHIN
GUIDANCE AND ESPECIALLY ENSEMBLE MEMBERS. THE ONLY PART OF THE
FORECAST WITH CLUSTERING IS THE FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY RAIN,
AFTER THAT IT REMAINS VERY DISPERSIVE. WHAT IS MORE CONFIDENT
ARE WARMER THAN NORMAL TEMPERATURES. SUNDAY INTO MONDAY LOOK TO
SEE HIGHS WELL ABOVE NORMAL IN THE MID TO UPPER 80S.
AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY/
ISSUED AT 627 AM CDT FRI AUG 28 2026
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD. ISOLATED INSTANCES
OF MVFR TO IFR DUE TO PATCHY FOG WILL BE POSSIBLE THROUGH 13Z AT
KMKT, KAXN, KRNH, AND KEAU. WINDS WILL BE LIGHT AT 5-10 KNOTS
THROUGH THE DAY, BECOMING SOUTH TO SOUTHWESTERLY. SKY COVERAGE
WILL SLOWLY INCREASE AS WELL, BECOMING BKN AT 15-25 KFT BY THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
PROB30S FOR -TSRA HAS BEEN INTRODUCED FOR ALL MINNESOTA
TERMINALS, STARTING AT 03Z OUT WEST AND PROGRESSING EASTWARD
THROUGH THE EVENING AND OVERNIGHT. EXACT TIMING WILL LIKELY BE
ADJUSTED AT FUTURE TAF ISSUANCES, BUT FOR NOW EXPECT
SHOWER/STORM ACTIVITY TO INCREASE LATE THIS EVENING THROUGH
TOMORROW MORNING.
KMSP...VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE DAY WITH LIGHT WINDS
AT 5-10 KNOTS AND SKY INCREASING IN HIGH LEVEL CLOUD COVERAGE.
PROB30 FOR -TSRA HAS BEEN INTRODUCED THIS TAF CYCLE. AT THE
MOMENT, 11-14Z TIMING WILL LIKELY NEED TO BE ADJUSTED AS TRENDS
CONTINUE TO SHOW SHOWER/STORM ACTIVITY LATER.
/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/
SAT...VFR. CHC AM -TSRA/MVFR. WIND S 10-15G20KTS.
SUN...VFR. SCHC -TSRA. WIND S 8-13KTS.
MON...VFR. WIND WNW 5-10KTS.
MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MN...NONE.
WI...NONE.
DISCUSSION...NDC
AVIATION...LPR
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