063
FXUS63 KMPX 302001
AFDMPX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
301 PM CDT SUN MAR 30 2025
KEY MESSAGES
- MIXED WINTRY PRECIPITATION HAS TRANSITIONED TO RAIN AND WET SNOW,
ALL OF WHICH WILL END EARLY THIS EVENING.
- ANOTHER WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION EVENT WILL IMPACT THE AREA
TUESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT. RAIN AND SNOW ARE
THE PRECIPITATION TYPES EXPECTED, WITH A BAND OF HEAVY WET
SNOW POSSIBLE. GREATEST SNOW POTENTIAL WITH THIS SYSTEM IS
CURRENTLY ACROSS CENTRAL MN INTO NORTHERN WI.
- PATTERN QUIETS DOWN AT THE END OF THE WEEK INTO NEXT WEEKEND,
WITH TEMPERATURES NEAR NORMAL.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 258 PM CDT SUN MAR 30 2025
SURFACE ANALYSIS THIS AFTERNOON DEPICTS A COMPACT SURFACE LOW
NEAR THE WI/IA BORDER WITH A NORTHWEST WARD TRAILING WEAK
TROUGH AND A SOUTHWARD SAGGING COLD FRONT. KMPX RADAR INDICATES
THAT THE NE-SW ORIENTED PRECIPITATION SHIELD FROM NW WISCONSIN
DOWN TO SOUTH- CENTRAL MINNESOTA IS NEARLY ALL SNOW AT THIS
POINT, SAVE A SMALL AREAS OF MIXED WINTRY PRECIPITATION OVER
CHIPPEWA/EAU CLAIRE COUNTIES IN WESTERN WI. AS THE SYSTEM PULLS
AWAY TO THE SOUTHERN TIP OF LAKE MICHIGAN BY THIS EVENING, THE
PRECIPITATION SHIELD WILL SHIFT EASTWARD WITH IT, EVENTUALLY
COMING TO AN END FOR ALL OF THE WFO MPX COVERAGE AREA NOT LONG
AFTER SUNSET. ADDITIONAL SNOW ACCUMULATIONS WILL BE RATHER
LIMITED, LESS THAN AN INCH, AND THE REMAINING MIXED WINTRY
PRECIPITATION WILL PRODUCE LITTLE TO NO ICING BEFORE CHANGING
OVER TO SNOW THEN ENDING.
NORTH-SOUTH ORIENTED HIGH PRESSURE, CENTERED OVER SOUTHERN
CANADA ON SUNDAY BUT EXPANDING SOUTH INTO THE DEEP SOUTH, WILL
SLIDE EAST SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY, BRINGING DRY AIR AND A
REPRIEVE FROM THE PRECIPITATION, ALTHOUGH WITH A REINFORCEMENT
OF COLDER RESIDUAL AIR FOR THE UPPER MIDWEST. MONDAY HIGHS WILL
ONLY CLIMB TO THE UPPER 30S TO NEAR 40. THE WET NATURE OF THE
PRECIPITATION TODAY COMBINED WITH MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES ON MONDAY
SHOULD BE ENOUGH TO MELT ANY REMAINING SNOW WHICH IS STILL
RESIDING ANYWHERE.
ATTENTION THEN TURNS TO ANOTHER WELL-ORGANIZED SYSTEM EXPECTED
TO IMPACT OUR AREA TUESDAY-WEDNESDAY. A LARGE LOW PRESSURE
AREA MOVING ONSHORE THE PACNW LATE MONDAY INTO MONDAY NIGHT WILL
DRAG PLENTIFUL PACIFIC MOISTURE WITH IT ACROSS THE ROCKIES
MONDAY INTO TUESDAY. A BURGEONING LONGWAVE TROUGH OVER THE
WESTERN CONUS TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY WILL HELP NUDGE THIS LOW
ACROSS THE ROCKIES, DEEPENING IT QUICKLY TO A MORE ORGANIZED
SUB-990MB LOW OVER KANSAS ON TUESDAY THEN TO NE/IA ON WEDNESDAY.
THE TRACK OF THIS SYSTEM HAS SHIFTED A BIT NORTH, NOW CROSSING
SOUTHERN MN INTO WESTERN WI. THIS SYSTEM WILL LACK THE WARM AIR
ALOFT, THUS KEEPING THE P-TYPES AS SOLELY RAIN AND SNOW. THAT
SAID, STRONG DYNAMICS ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SYSTEM WILL NOT ONLY
PRODUCE PLENTY OF RAINFALL OVER A 48-HR PERIOD FROM TUE AFTN TO
WED AFTN, BUT ALSO THE POTENTIAL FOR HEAVY WET PLOWABLE SNOW TUE
THROUGH WED MORNING FOR FAR NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE COVERAGE
AREA. THE NORTHWARD SHIFT IN THE TRACK MEANS A MUCH SMALLER AREA
WHICH MAY RECEIVE 6+" OF WET SNOW. THUS, IT IS NOT ONLY TOO
EARLY TO CONFIDENTLY DETERMINE SNOW AMOUNTS BUT THE LARGE SHIFT
IN QPF AND ITS LOCATION PRECLUDES THE ISSUANCE OF ANY
SUPPLEMENTAL WINTER WEATHER HEADLINES FOR THIS SYSTEM AT THIS
POINT. GENERALLY- SPEAKING, WET SNOW ACCUMULATIONS CAN BE
EXPECTED FOR MUCH OF THE COVERAGE AREA, BUT ADDITIONAL MODEL
RUNS AND COLLABORATION WILL BE NEEDED BEFORE ISSUING ANY
ADDITIONAL PRODUCTS. THE SILVER LINING HERE IS THAT DAYTIME
HIGHS ON WED WILL RUN FROM THE UPPER 30S IN WEST-CENTRAL MN TO
THE LOWER 50S IN FAR SOUTHERN MN INTO WESTERN WI, FOLLOWED BY
HIGHS ON THU IN THE UPPER 30S TO MID 40S. THUS, WHAT SNOW DOES
COME IS NOT EXPECTED TO LAST LONG.
THE END OF NEXT WEEK WILL BE MUCH MORE TRANQUIL, WITH HIGH
PRESSURE PREVAILING OVER THE NORTHERN TIER STATES, ALONG WITH
UPPER LEVEL RIDGING CENTERED OVER THE WESTERN CONUS WHICH WILL
SPREAD INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS AND UPPER MIDWEST. AS SUCH, ONCE
PAST THE MIDWEEK SYSTEM, NO ADDITIONAL PRECIPITATION IS
EXPECTED. IN ADDITION, TEMPERATURES WILL GO ON A WARMING TREND
WITH HIGHS RISING TO THE MID 40S TO MID 50S.
AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY/
ISSUED AT 1215 PM CDT SUN MAR 30 2025
A DEVELOPING SOUTHWEST-TO-NORTHEAST DEFORMATION BAND OF
PRECIPITATION IS CURRENTLY STRETCHING FROM SOUTH-CENTRAL MN INTO
NORTHWESTERN WI. ON THE SOUTHEAST SIDE OF THE BAND, RAIN AND A
WINTRY MIX ARE BEING OBSERVED WHILE FARTHER NORTHWEST THE PRECIP
TRANSITIONS TO SNOW. THIS BAND WILL CONTINUE TO INTENSIFY WHILE
SLOWLY MOVING EAST WITH ALL PRECIPITATION EVENTUALLY CHANGING
OVER TO SNOW. EXPECT MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS TO PERIODICALLY DROP TO
LIFR (VISIBILITIES UNDER A MILE) AS SNOWFALL RATES MAXIMIZE IN
THE MIDDLE OF THE BAND. RWF, MKT, AND MSP WILL EXPERIENCE THE
BAND OF PRECIP THIS AFTERNOON WHILE RNH AND EAU WILL BE DELAYED
A FEW HOURS. THE PRECIP WILL EVENTUALLY EXIT TO OUR EAST BEFORE
MIDNIGHT. AFTERWARDS, CONDITIONS SHOULD SLOWLY IMPROVE TO MVFR
THEN VFR FROM WEST TO EAST BY SUNRISE MONDAY MORNING. NORTHERLY
WINDS COULD GUST TO 20-25 KNOTS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING
BEFORE SLOWING TO UNDER 10 KNOTS TONIGHT AND TURNING MORE
NORTHWESTERLY.
KMSP...ADDED TEMPO FROM 18-20Z THIS AFTERNOON FOR PERIODS OF
HEAVIER SNOW CREATING MVFR CONDITIONS. HEAVIEST SNOW IS EXPECTED
FROM 20-01Z WHERE IFR AND VISIBILITIES DOWN TO 2SM ARE LIKELY.
NORTHERLY WINDS WILL ALSO BE STRONG DURING THIS TIME WITH GUSTS
TO NEAR 25 KNOTS. SNOW SHOULD END BY 01Z THIS EVENING AS THE
BAND MOVES NORTHEAST.
/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/
TUE...VFR, BCMG MVFR/IFR W/-RASN. WIND SE 10-20G25KTS.
WED...MVFR/IFR, -RASN. WIND E 15-20G30KTS BCMG SW 10-15KTS.
THU...VFR. WIND NW 5-10KTS.
MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MN...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR
CHISAGO.
WI...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR BARRON-
POLK-RUSK.
DISCUSSION...JPC
AVIATION...CTG
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