542
FXUS63 KMPX 052251
AFDMPX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
551 PM CDT SUN JUL 5 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- ISOLATED STORMS ONGOING THIS AFTERNOON OVER PARTS OF
SOUTHEASTERN MN AND WESTERN WI.
- INCREASING SIGNAL FOR A POTENTIAL MCS AND ATTENDANT SEVERE
WEATHER AND HEAVY RAIN RISK LATE TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY.
- DRY WEATHER WITH NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURES EXPECTED THURSDAY
THROUGH SATURDAY.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 136 PM CDT SUN JUL 5 2026
IT'S A MUCH QUIETER AFTERNOON TO END THE WEEKEND, WITH ONLY A
FEW ISOLATED SHOWERS SPORADICALLY POPPING UP ACROSS WEST-
CENTRAL WI AND SOUTHEAST MN. REGIONAL SATELLITE SHOWS THE AREA
OF STORMS AND INCREASED MOISTURE WEDGED UNDER THE BUILDING RIDGE
AXIS THAT'S KEEPING MUCH OF US UNDER WEAK SUBSIDENCE. THE NICE
WEATHER UNDER THIS RIDGE WILL CONTINUE INTO MONDAY BEFORE AN
EASTWARD PROPAGATING COLD FRONT INFLUENCES THUNDERSTORM
DEVELOPMENT ACROSS THE DAKOTAS DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
THINKING REMAINS LARGELY THE SAME WITH THIS SYSTEM... THE LINE
OF STORMS WILL ATTEMPT TO PUSH EAST INTO MINNESOTA, BUT WITH NO
LLJ TO HELP SUSTAIN THEM, IT SHOULD WANE OFF RELATIVELY QUICKLY
OVERNIGHT. AS A RESULT, THE LATEST NBM POPS ARE BEGINNING TO
CONVERGE TOWARDS A SOLUTION FOR MONDAY NIGHT WHERE THE LINE IS
ONLY ABLE TO MOVE INTO PARTS OF CENTRAL MN BEFORE FALLING APART.
POPS HAVE TRENDED DOWN AND ARE GENERALLY CAPPED AROUND 30-50
PERCENT.
THE REMNANTS OF THESE STORMS WILL SET UP A BOUNDARY FOR
ADDITIONAL STORM DEVELOPMENT TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
RIGHT NOW, THAT BOUNDARY IS FAVORED TO STALL ACROSS CENTRAL MN,
BUT IT REALLY JUST DEPENDS ON HOW THOSE MONDAY NIGHT STORMS
EVOLVE. WHEREVER THIS BOUNDARY SETS UP WILL BE PRIMED FOR A
HEALTHY AMOUNT OF RAIN, ESPECIALLY IF YOU FACTOR IN THE MONDAY
NIGHT CONVECTION. THE LATEST WPC QPF PAINTS A BROAD FOOTPRINT OF
1-2" ALONG THE BOUNDARY, FROM MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY
NIGHT. GIVEN PWAT ANOMALIES COULD BE NEAR 170-200 PERCENT OF
NORMAL (FOR JULY), IT IS VERY REALISTIC TO EXPECT SOME AREAS
COULD RECEIVE WELL OVER 2" IN THAT TIMEFRAME AS WELL. THERE
WILL ALSO LIKELY BE AN ENVIRONMENT CONDUCIVE FOR THE DEVELOPMENT
OF A MORE ORGANIZED CONVECTIVE SYSTEM DURING THE SECOND HALF OF
THE DAY TUESDAY SOUTH OF THE BOUNDARY. A STRENGTHENING LLJ
ACCOMPANIED WITH STEEP LAPSE RATES AND INCREASING DEWPOINTS
SHOULD SUPPORT THIS FORWARD PROPAGATING MCS, THOUGH THE EXACT
DETAILS WILL BE INFLUENCED BY SUB-SYNOPTIC DEVELOPMENTS WITH LOW
PREDICTABILITY THIS FAR OUT. THE "DOUBLE SLIGHT" REMAINS IN
PLACE FOR BOTH THE SEVERE AND EXCESSIVE RAINFALL RISKS.
THINGS QUIET DOWN AGAIN AFTER THE RAIN CLEARS OUT WEDNESDAY,
WITH A RELATIVELY WEAK JET ALOFT AND LOW AMPLITUDE RIDGING.
TEMPERATURES AND DEWPOINTS ARE EXPECTED TO COME DOWN A BIT FOR
THE WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY TIMEFRAME WITH LOW PRECIPITATION
CHANCES UNLESS ANY SORT OF SUBTLE KINK IN THE HEIGHTS DEVELOPS
ON ANY GIVEN DAY. IT CONTINUES TO LOOK LIKE RIDGING WILL
DOMINATE THE WESTERN HALF OF THE CONUS HEADING INTO THE WEEK OF
JULY 13TH, AND IT WILL JUST BE A MATTER OF HOW FAR EAST THE EDGE
OF THE RIDGE SPREADS TO DETERMINE HOW MUCH WE WARM UP AGAIN.
AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY/
ISSUED AT 542 PM CDT SUN JUL 5 2026
VERY LITTLE CHANGES MADE TO THIS TAF WITH VFR EXPECTED THE
ENTIRE PERIOD. A FEW HIGH CLOUDS WILL BE PRESENT TONIGHT WITH FEW
TO POSSIBLY SCATTERED DIURNAL CUMULUS CLOUDS NEAR 5000 FEET
DURING MONDAY. VARIABLE/LIGHT EAST-SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS TONIGHT
TURN SOUTH-SOUTHEASTERLY MID-MONDAY MORNING WITH SPEEDS
INCREASING TO 5-10 KNOTS.
KMSP...NO ADDITIONAL CONCERNS.
/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/
TUE...VFR, CHC PM -SHRA. WIND SW 5-10KTS.
WED...MVFR/-SHRA LIKELY, CHC IFR/-TSRA. WIND SW BCMNG NW 10-15KTS.
THU...VFR. WIND NE 5-10KTS.
MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MN...NONE.
WI...NONE.
DISCUSSION...BED
AVIATION...CTG
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.
Main Text Page