691
FXUS63 KMPX 080516
AFDMPX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
1116 PM CST SAT FEB 7 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- FLURRIES POSSIBLE ACROSS WESTERN WI TONIGHT.
- WARMER MONDAY, WITH 50S POSSIBLE FOR LOCATIONS IN
SOUTHWESTERN MN.
- ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES PERSIST FOR MOST OF THE WORK WEEK.
KEEPING AN EYE ON MID-WEEK SNOW POTENTIAL.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 250 PM CST SAT FEB 7 2026
RELATIVELY QUIET WEATHER CONTINUES ACROSS THE UPPER MIDWEST EARLY
THIS AFTERNOON. A MID-LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH IS ADVANCING SOUTHEAST
THROUGH THE DAKOTAS TO THE WEST AND EXPANSIVE SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE
IS POSITIONED OVER THE GREAT LAKES TO THE EAST. THE MPX FORECAST
AREA IS LOCATED WITHIN A PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN THESE TWO
FEATURES, WHICH HAS PROMOTED BREEZY SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW. SATELLITE
CAPTURES A BLANKET OF MID TO HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS NORTH AND EAST OF THE
DEVELOPING SURFACE LOW. IN ADDITION, WE'VE SEEN AN UPTICK IN RADAR
ECHOES ALOFT ACROSS THE REGION -- HOWEVER, A WEDGE OF DRY LOW TO
MID LEVEL AIR IS WORKING AGAINST ANY PRECIPITATION REACHING THE
SURFACE. THE TROUGH/SURFACE LOW WILL CONTINUE SOUTHEAST TONIGHT,
THOUGH LITTLE PRECIPITATION IS ANTICIPATED. FORCING LOOKS BAGGY
AND NOT VERY WELL DEFINED, SO HAVE OPTED TO PULL BACK ON THE
MENTION OF FLURRIES FOR CENTRAL MN AND THE WESTERN SLIVER OF WI.
FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW A FEW HOURS OF SATURATION IN THE DGZ ALOFT
(~15K FEET) ACROSS PORTIONS OF WESTERN WI. WOULD TEND TO THINK
THE DRY WEDGE BELOW THIS LAYER WILL REALLY LIMIT MUCH IN THE WAY
OF SNOWFLAKES REACHING THE SURFACE, BUT DID INCLUDE A CHANCE OF
FLURRIES ALONG AND EAST OF A LINE FROM NORTHERN POLK TO EASTERN
PEPIN IN COLLABORATION WITH WFO'S DLH & ARX. OTHERWISE, IT WILL BE
A QUIET AND MOSTLY CLOUDY NIGHT WITH ONLY A LITTLE COOLING THANKS
TO CONTINUE SE FLOW.
ANOTHER QUIET DAY OF WEATHER IS ON DECK FOR SUNDAY, HOWEVER CHANGES
WILL BE IN THE AIR. THE NORTHERN CONUS WILL BE ON THE SOUTHERN SIDE
OF A MORE POTENT CLIPPER THAT IS PROGGED TO TRACK FROM THE SOUTHERN
PROVINCES INTO THE NORTHERN GREAT LAKES SUNDAY INTO MONDAY.
THIS EVOLUTION WILL SUPPORT THE EASTWARD EXPANSION OF A THERMAL
RIDGE ACROSS OUR FORECAST ARE TO OPEN THE WORK WEEK. WE'LL FEEL
A SLIGHTLY WARMER DAY TOMORROW, WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 20S TO
LOWER 30S ACROSS EASTERN MN/WESTERN WI. FARTHER WEST, THE
ADVANCE OF THE THERMAL RIDGE WILL WARM HIGHS TO NEARLY 40
DEGREES ACROSS SOUTHWESTERN MN. THE MORE NOTABLE WARM UP WILL
COME ON MONDAY, AS 925MB T'S OF ~5 TO 10C SPREAD OVER SOUTH
CENTRAL MN. CONFIDENCE IS LOW TO MEDIUM ON ANTICIPATED CLOUD
COVERAGE TIED TO THE CLIPPER THAT WILL BE PASSING TO THE
NORTH/NORTHEAST HEADING INTO MONDAY MORNING. A BAROCLINIC ZONE
IS FORECAST TO SETUP ACROSS CENTRAL MN, SO AM NOT CONFIDENT THAT
THE WARMEST 925MB T'S WILL ADVECT NORTH OF I-94. STILL, THE
OPERATIONAL NBM SEEMED A LITTLE ON THE COOL SIDE, SO COLLABORATED
WITH NEIGHBORS TO BOOST MONDAY'S MAX T GRID TOWARDS THE NBM
75TH PERCENTILE. THIS PRODUCES A FORECAST WITH HIGHS IN THE
UPPER 40S TO LOWER 50S ACROSS SOUTH/WESTERN MN, THE LOW TO MID
40S ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL MN AND THE TC METRO, AND THE UPPER 30S
TO NEAR 40 NORTH OF I-94 IN MN & WI. MOST OF THE FORECAST AREA
WILL REMAIN DRY MONDAY INTO TUESDAY, HOWEVER GUIDANCE HAS HINTED
AT A BIT OF A WILD CARD IN THE MONDAY PM TIMEFRAME FOR
LOCATIONS ACROSS CENTRAL MN. FOLLOWING THE AFOREMENTIONED
CLIPPER, A SWIFT WAVE IS FORECAST TO RIDE ZONAL FLOW EASTWARD
ACROSS NORTHERN PLAINS INTO MONDAY AFTERNOON. WHILE NOT A
CONSISTENT TREND, THERE HAVE BEEN SEVERAL DETERMINISTIC
SOLUTIONS THAT PRODUCE A LIGHT BAND OF FGEN DRIVEN QPF ACROSS
CENTRAL MN MONDAY PM INTO EARLY TUESDAY. NBM WAS RATHER DRY
DURING THIS TIMEFRAME AND FELT THAT THERE WAS ENOUGH SUPPORT
FROM THE PHYSICAL MODELS AND THE AIFS TO INCLUDE SLIGHT CHANCE
POPS ALONG AND NORTH OF I-94. GIVEN THE THERMAL PROFILE, LIGHT
PRECIPITATION WOULD LIKELY START AS LIQUID AND MAY TRANSITION
INTO A WINTRY P-TYPE INTO THE EVENING.
FORECAST CONFIDENCE BEGINS TO FALL HEADING INTO THE SECOND HALF OF
THE WORK WEEK AS GUIDANCE VARIES IN THE EVOLUTION OF LONGWAVE
TROUGHING OVER THE WESTERN CONUS. THAT BEING SAID, GUIDANCE DOES
HAVE SUPPORT FOR A SHORTWAVE DIVING SOUTHEAST WITHIN UPPER
NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ACROSS THE NORTHERN CONUS IN THE THURSDAY
TIMEFRAME. ASSOCIATED SURFACE LOW AIMS TO TRACK FROM THE CENTRAL
PLAINS INTO THE OHIO VALLEY ALONG A REMNANT BAROCLINIC ZONE.
CONCEPTUALLY, THIS SUPPORTS A BAND OF FGEN DRIVEN PRECIPITATION
(IN THIS CASE MOSTLY SNOW) TO THE NORTHEAST OF THE SURFACE LOW.
NBM'S 30-40% POPS LATE WEDNESDAY INTO EARLY THURSDAY SUPPORT
THIS IDEA, THOUGH WILL NEED TO LOCK INTO A MORE PERSISTENT
TRACK/ANTICIPATED SWATH OF PRECIPITATION BEFORE POPS CAN
INCREASE. ENSEMBLES SUPPORT A CONTINUED TREND OF MILD TEMPERATURES
IN THE EXTENDED PERIOD, WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 30S TO LOWER
40S NEXT WEEKEND. IT'S TOO EARLY TO HAVE ANY DEGREE OF CONFIDENCE
IN ANY ONE PRECIPITATION SOLUTION FROM NEXT WEEKEND ONWARD,
HOWEVER A MORE ACTIVE SOUTHERN STREAM REFLECTED IN THE ENSEMBLE
SOLUTION POINTS TOWARDS A MORE ACTIVE PATTERN HEADING INTO THE
SECOND HALF OF FEBRUARY.
AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY/
ISSUED AT 1114 PM CST SAT FEB 7 2026
NOT MANY CHANGES SINCE THE PREVIOUS TAF. ONLY MADE MINOR
ADJUSTMENTS TO WIND GUST SPEEDS FOR OUR WESTERN SITES. MOST
TERMINALS CAN EXPECT LOW VFR STRATUS TO LINGER THROUGH TONIGHT.
BY TOMORROW MORNING SKY COVERAGE SHOULD BECOME SCATTERED,
ALTHOUGH NEARLY ALL SITES COULD SEE ANOTHER PERIOD OF BORDERLINE
BKN/OVC MVFR CIGS BY MID-AFTERNOON TOMORROW. SOUTHWESTERLY
WINDS TONIGHT WILL CONTINUE TO GRADUALLY DECREASE TO AROUND
7-10KTS AND BECOMING SOUTHERLY BY TOMORROW EVENING.
KMSP...NO ADDITIONAL CONCERNS.
/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/
MON...VFR. WIND SW 5-10 KTS BECOMING SE.
TUE...VFR. WIND NW 5-10 KTS.
WED...VFR. WIND NW 5-10 KTS BECOMING NE.
MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MN...NONE.
WI...NONE.
DISCUSSION...STRUS
AVIATION...DUNLEAVY
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