943
FXUS63 KMPX 081115
AFDMPX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
615 AM CDT THU OCT 8 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- NOT AS WARM AND BREEZY TODAY.
- FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS INCREASE HEADING INTO THE WEEKEND AS A
RESULT OF WARMING TEMPERATURES & STRONG SOUTHERLY WINDS.
- COOLER EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH THE RETURN OF LIGHT PRECIPITATION
CHANCES.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 351 AM CDT THU OCT 8 2026
TODAY...LATEST WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS THE APEX OF A TROUGH
DRAPED ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES REGION AND CONTINUING EASTWARD.
MEANWHILE TO OUR WEST, RIDGING IS IN PLACE OVER THE
PACNORTHWEST, THUS LEAVING US LOCALLY SADDLED BETWEEN THESE
FEATURES AND BENEATH A 50-70KT JETSTREAK. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE
WILL HOLD FIRM OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS TODAY ALTHOUGH
CONDITIONS WILL NOT BE AS BREEZY AND SUNNY AS THEY WERE
YESTERDAY. WEAK REMNANT UPPER-FORCING FROM THE DEPARTING TROUGH
WILL ALLOW FOR SCATTERED MID TO HIGH LEVEL CLOUD COVER. WITH THE
RETURN OF NW FLOW, HIGHS THIS AFTERNOON ARE EXPECTED TO WARM
ONLY INTO THE LOW TO MID 60S. ALTHOUGH, A FEW SITES ACROSS
SOUTHWESTERN MN COULD SEE CLOSER TO 70 DEGREES. LOWS TONIGHT
WILL RANGE IN THE 40S.
FRIDAY AND THIS WEEKEND...AS MENTIONED IN THE PREVIOUS DISCUSSION,
FRIDAY IS A TRANSITION DAY BETWEEN A COOLER AND A MUCH WARMER
AIRMASS THAT ARRIVES THIS WEEKEND. DURING THE PRE-DAWN HOURS OF
FRIDAY, A WEAK DISTURBANCE DEVELOPS OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS AND
MOVES NORTHEAST. AS THIS OCCURS, A WEAK LLJ 30-40KTS WILL INCREASE
OVER IOWA AND HAVE ENOUGH LIFT TO GENERATE A LOW-END POTENTIAL
FOR A SHORT PERIOD OF SHOWERS FRIDAY MORNING NEAR THE MN/IA
BORDER. SW'LY FLOW BECOMES DOMINATE AND WILL ALLOW FOR WARM
ADVECTION TO RETURN WITH HIGHS IN TO THE 70S. BY SATURDAY,
ROBUST LOW PRESSURE SWEEPS ACROSS THE CANADIAN PRAIRIES WHICH
FORCES WARM ADVECTION TO KICK INTO HIGH GEAR. WINDS WILL BECOME
GUSTY AND BECOMING AS STRONG AS 30-40 MPH. FORECAST HIGHS WILL
REACH THE LOW TO MID-80S. GIVEN THE DRIER AIRMASS IN PLACE
PRECIP WILL NOT BE OF CONCERN HERE. IT IS MORE SO THE GUSTY
WINDS COMBINED WITH VERY WARM TEMPERATURES WHICH MAINTAIN A
CONCERN FOR NEAR- CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS. BY SUNDAY,
THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM TRACKS FARTHER EAST HOWEVER LINGERING
WARMTH AND BREEZY CONDITIONS COULD MAKE ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER
CONDITIONS THROUGH SUNDAY AFTERNOON.
BY SUNDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK, A COLD FRONT DIVES
SOUTHEAST INTO MN/WI. MUCH COOLER AIR FOLLOWS IN TOW BEHIND
THIS COLD FRONT AS TEMPERATURES WILL ONLY REACH THE 50S/LOWER
60S AND LOWS IN THE UPPER 30S/LOWER 40S FOR THE FIRST HALF OF
THE WEEK. AS FOR PRECIP ASSOCIATED WITH THIS FRONT, POPS HAVE
DECREASED SLIGHTLY WITH THE LATEST NBM SIMPLY DUE TO
UNCERTAINTIES WITH THE SLOW PROGRESSION OF THIS WAVE AND
REMNANTS OF HURRICANE ISAIAS.
AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY/
ISSUED AT 611 AM CDT THU OCT 8 2026
NOT MUCH CHANGES SINCE THE PREVIOUS TAF OTHER THAN PUSHING BACK
TIMING A COUPLE OF HOURS FOR MID-LEVEL CLOUDS. VFR THROUGH THE
PERIOD ACROSS ALL SITES. WNW'LY WINDS WILL REMAIN LIGHT THROUGH
LATE MORNING BEFORE INCREASING SLIGHTLY BELOW 10KTS. SCATTERED
TO BROKEN UPPER-LEVEL CLOUDS WILL GRADUALLY LOWER TO MID-LEVEL
HEIGHTS ~17-20Z TIMEFRAME WILL LINGER FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE
PERIOD. WINDS BECOME LIGHT AND VARIABLE THIS EVENING.
KMSP...NO ADDITIONAL CONCERNS.
/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/
FRI PM...VFR. WIND SE 10-15G20KTS.
SAT...VFR. WIND SSW 15-25G35KTS.
SUN...VFR. WIND SW 10-15G25KTS.
MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MN...NONE.
WI...NONE.
DISCUSSION...DUNLEAVY
AVIATION...DUNLEAVY
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