224
FXUS63 KMPX 260001
AFDMPX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
701 PM CDT FRI SEP 25 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- RAIN DEVELOPS ACROSS WESTERN MINNESOTA OVERNIGHT & SPREADS
INTO EASTERN MINNESOTA & WESTERN WISCONSIN THROUGH TOMORROW
MORNING.
- RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 0.50-0.75" ARE EXPECTED ACROSS MUCH OF
WESTERN & CENTRAL MINNESOTA. GENERALLY LESS THAN 0.10-0.25"
ACROSS EASTERN MINNESOTA & WESTERN WISCONSIN.
- A MORE WIDESPREAD ROUND OF RAIN IS LIKELY WITH A FRONTAL
PASSAGE MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 359 PM CDT FRI SEP 25 2026
RAIN BEGINS ACROSS SOUTHWEST MINNESOTA LATE TONIGHT, AIDED BY UPGLIDE
& INCREASING WARM/MOIST ADVECTION FROM A STRENGTHENING
SOUTHERLY LOW-LEVEL JET. SHOWERS SPREAD INTO WESTERN & SOUTH-
CENTRAL MINNESOTA OVERNIGHT INTO EARLY SATURDAY MORNING, THEN
EXPAND NORTHEAST ACROSS CENTRAL MINNESOTA AND THE TWIN CITIES
THROUGH THE MORNING INTO EARLY AFTERNOON. THE RAIN EVENTUALLY
REACHES WESTERN WISCONSIN BY EARLY AFTERNOON, BUT SHOULD BECOME
LIGHTER AND MORE SCATTERED AS IT ENCOUNTERS DRIER AIR FARTHER
EAST. LIGHT RAIN WILL BE FALLING THROUGH MUCH OF SATURDAY FOR
MOST, WITH THE RAIN TAPERING OFF DURING THE AFTERNOON ACROSS
WESTERN MINNESOTA & THE EVENING ACROSS EASTERN MINNESOTA/WESTERN
WISCONSIN. HOWEVER, PATCHY DRIZZLE MAY STILL PERSIST INTO THE
NIGHT AS THE SOUTHERLY FLOW ALOFT CONTINUES INTO SUNDAY MORNING.
THE HEAVIEST RAIN SHOULD FAVOR WESTERN MINNESOTA WHERE RAINFALL
AMOUNTS OF 0.75-1 ARE EXPECTED ACROSS A FAIRLY BROAD AREA.
RAINFALL AMOUNTS GRADUALLY DECREASE OFF TO THE EAST WITH AMOUNTS
ONLY ON THE ORDER OF A TENTH OR LESS ACROSS WESTERN WISCONSIN.
RAIN DURING THE DAY WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES COOL, NOT WARMING
MUCH FROM OUR OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE UPPER 50S. HOWEVER - PEAKS
OF AFTERNOON SUN ACROSS WESTERN MINNESOTA AFTER THE RAIN ENDS, &
ACROSS WESTERN WISCONSIN BEFORE THE RAIN BEGINS, WILL ALLOW
HIGHS TO WARM INTO THE UPPER 60S. SUNDAY WILL BE DRY BUT CLOUD
COVER COULD PERSIST THROUGH THE DAY, LIKELY LIMITING
TEMPERATURES TO THE LOW TO MID 60S. IF WE GET MORE SUNSHINE
DURING THE AFTERNOON, HIGHS NEAR 70 LOOK POSSIBLE.
OUR NEXT CHANCE FOR WIDESPREAD RAIN COMES MONDAY NIGHT INTO
TUESDAY AS AN UPPER-LEVEL DISTURBANCE & ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT
MOVE THROUGH THE UPPER MIDWEST. RAIN DEVELOPS ACROSS WESTERN
MINNESOTA AFTER MIDNIGHT MONDAY NIGHT, THEN SPREADS ACROSS
CENTRAL & SOUTHERN MINNESOTA AND WESTERN WISCONSIN TUESDAY
MORNING. THE STEADIEST RAIN LOOKS TO FALL DURING THE MORNING
INTO EARLY AFTERNOON, BEFORE GRADUALLY ENDING FROM WEST TO EAST
TUESDAY AFTERNOON & EVENING. THE TIMING OF THE FRONT DURING THE
OVERNIGHT & MORNING HOURS LIKELY PREVENTS ANY CHANCES FOR
WIDESPREAD THUNDERSTORMS & HEAVIER RAINFALL TOTALS - MOST
LOCATIONS SHOULD SEE AROUND 0.25-0.5 OF RAIN BUT CAN’T RULE OUT
SOME HEAVIER AMOUNTS NEAR AN INCH IF EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS
OCCUR.
COOLER AIR FILTERS BACK INTO THE REGION BEHIND THE FRONT TUESDAY INTO
WEDNESDAY, WITH MORE FALL-LIKE TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE REST OF
THE WEEK WITH HIGHS IN THE LOW TO MID 60S & LOWS IN THE 40S.
THE PATTERN MAY REMAIN ACTIVE AS ANOTHER DISTURBANCE DEVELOPS
ALONG OR NORTH OF THE STALLED FRONTAL ZONE LATE WEDNESDAY INTO
THURSDAY. SOME SPREAD IN THE GUIDANCE EXISTS ON JUST HOW FAR
NORTH THE PRECIPITATION FRO THIS SYSTEM MAY EXTEND INTO
MINNESOTA, BUT AT LEAST THE FAR-SOUTHER PORTION OF THE STATE
APPEARS POSITIONED FOR ANOTHER ROUND OF APPRECIABLE RAINFALL.
OTHERWISE, HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING OVER THE UPPER MIDWEST SHOULD
KEEP US COOL & DRY THROUGH NEXT WEEKEND.
AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY/
ISSUED AT 645 PM CDT FRI SEP 25 2026
VFR/MVFR CONDITIONS THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT SOUTHEAST WINDS.
OVERNIGHT, RAIN WILL DEVELOP ACROSS WESTERN MINNESOTA, AND THIS
WILL MOVE EASTWARD ACROSS THE REGION ON SATURDAY. KAXN, KSTC,
KRWF AND KMKT SHOULD SEE IFR CONDITIONS AS CEILINGS FALL TO LESS
THAN 1000 FT. MEANWHILE AREAS TO THE EAST, WILL HAVE LESS LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE AND SHOULD REMAIN MVFR OR IN THE CASE OF EAU,
VFR.
KMSP...CONFIDENCE HAS INCREASED THAT RAIN WILL IMPACT KMSP LATE
SATURDAY MORNING AND EARLY SATURDAY AFTERNOON. IT SHOULD BE
STEADY AND LIGHT, WITH MVFR VISBYS AND CEILINGS. ON SATURDAY
EVENING, CEILINGS COULD LOWER TO IFR CONDITIONS, BUT THE LOWEST
VISIBILITY REMAINS TO THE WEST OF KMSP, SO KEPT THE CEILINGS AT
1000FT.
/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/
SUN...MVFR/-SHRA EARLY, BECOMING VFR LATE. WIND SE 5-10KTS.
MON...VFR. WIND SE 5-10KTS.
TUE...VFR, CHC MVFR/SHRA. WIND S 5-10KTS.
MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MN...NONE.
WI...NONE.
DISCUSSION...ETA
AVIATION...JRB
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