046
FXUS63 KMPX 160817
AFDMPX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
317 AM CDT SUN AUG 16 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- TEMPERATURES CONTINUE TO HOVER RIGHT AROUND THE SEASONAL
AVERAGE FOR THE MIDDLE OF AUGUST.
- NEXT ROUND OF SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL COME MONDAY INTO TUESDAY
WITH ANOTHER COLD FRONT PASSAGE.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 314 AM CDT SUN AUG 16 2026
OVERALL, NOT A LOT OF CHANGES IN THE FORECAST FROM PREVIOUS FORECAST
PACKAGES. A SOMEWHAT PROGRESSIVE WEATHER PATTERN WITH CHANCES OF
SHOWERS AND STORMS ACROSS THE AREA MONDAY EVENING/NIGHT, WITH
ANOTHER SHOT OF SHOWERS/STORMS TUESDAY EVENING. TEMPERATURES WILL
HOVER RIGHT AROUND THE SEASONAL AVERAGE THROUGH THE PERIOD.
TODAY AND MONDAY
AFTER FROPA EARLY THIS MORNING, MUCH DRIER AIR WILL INFILTRATE THE
AREA FROM THE NORTHWEST WITH DP TEMPS DROPPING BACK INTO THE UPPER
50S THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING. THAT SAID, TODAY LOOKS QUITE PLEASANT
WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE UPPER 70S TO AROUND 80 DEGREES WITH
DECREASING CLOUD COVERAGE THROUGH THE DAY.
TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY
ON MONDAY, PLEASANT WEATHER CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH MOST OF
THE DAY WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE LOW 80S. THE NEXT MID/UPPER
LEVEL PIECE OF ENERGY WILL LEAD TO ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS
AND STORMS MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY MORNING. SW LOW LEVEL FLOW
WILL INCREASE THROUGH THE DAY ON TUESDAY, ALLOWING FOR BETTER
MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY TO ADVECT IN ACROSS THE SOUTHERN HALF
OF MN. THIS COUPLED WITH SUFFICIENT FORCING ASSOCIATED WITH
SOUTHEASTWARD ADVANCING COLD FRONT WILL PROMOTE AN INCREASE IN
SHOWER AND STORM CHANCES TUESDAY EVENING/NIGHT. CURRENT GUIDANCE
HAS THE FOCUS FOR ACTIVITY ACROSS SOUTHERN MN WHERE THE BEST
MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY RESIDES, ALONG WITH BETTER
TIMING/ADVANCEMENT OF THE AFOREMENTIONED COLD FRONT.
THEREAFTER, THE FLATTENED UPPER LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE OVER SOUTHERN
HALF OF CONUS WILL SHIFT WESTWARD OVER THE SOUTHERN ROCKIES AND FOUR
CORNERS REGION. THIS WILL INDUCE MORE AMPLIFIED NW FLOW ALOFT ACROSS
MN THROUGH THE SECOND HALF OF THE WEEK. QUIET AND FAIR WEATHER
CONDITIONS WILL RESUME WITH LOW-END CHANCES OF RAIN THURSDAY
AFTERNOON/EVENING. TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE WORK
WEEK AND INTO THE WEEKEND WILL HOVER AROUND 80 DEGREES.
AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z MONDAY/
ISSUED AT 1226 AM CDT SUN AUG 16 2026
LIKE MENTIONED IN PREVIOUS AVIATION FORECAST DISCUSSION, FROPA
WILL BE THE MAIN FEATURE THROUGH FORECAST PERIOD. THE FRONTAL
BOUNDARY WILL PROMOTE LOWERING CIGS THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS
WITH MVFR CIGS LIKELY, ISOLATED INSTANCES OF IFR CIGS POSSIBLE.
THE MAIN THREAT FOR SHOWERS/WEAK STORMS IS FOCUSED NOW OVER
WESTERN WI, SPECIFICALLY FOR EAU THROUGH 08Z.
WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO SHIFT NWRLY THROUGH THE NIGHT BEHIND
FROPA, AT 5-10 KNOTS. BY LATE MORNING AND AFTERNOON, WINDS WILL
BE NW AT 8-13 KNOTS WITH GUSTS TO 20 KNOTS POSSIBLE. CIGS WILL
IMPROVE DURING THE LATE MORNING AND AFTERNOON, BECOMING SKC BY
LATE AFTERNOON AND EVENING TIMEFRAME.
KMSP...THE MAIN CONCERN THROUGH MID MORNING WILL BE CIGS, MVFR
CIGS ARE LIKELY WITH ISOLATED INSTANCES OF IFR CIGS.CIGS WILL
IMPROVE BY LATE MORNING AND AFTERNOON, BECOMING SKC BY 21Z.
/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/
MON...VFR, MVFR/-SHRA LIKELY LATE. WIND SW 5-10KTS.
TUE...VFR. CHC MVFR/-SHRA. WIND SW TO NW 5-10KTS.
WED...VFR. WIND NW 5-10KTS.
MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MN...NONE.
WI...NONE.
DISCUSSION...LPR
AVIATION...LPR
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