332
FXUS63 KMPX 271847
AFDMPX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
147 PM CDT MON JUL 27 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- HEAT CONTINUES THROUGH WEDNESDAY, BUT DEW POINTS IN THE 60S
SHOULD MAKE IT A LITTLE MORE TOLERABLE THAN THE PAST FEW
DAYS.
- ROUNDS OF ELEVATED WILDFIRE SMOKE FROM THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST
ARE EXPECTED THROUGHOUT THE WEEK, BUT CHANCES FOR SURFACE
SMOKE LOOK LOW.
- PRECIP CHANCES INCREASE LATE WEDNESDAY INTO FRIDAY.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 145 PM CDT MON JUL 27 2026
THE COLD FRONT HAS MOVED THROUGH, ALLOWING FOR SOME RELIEF FROM THE
OPPRESSIVE TDS WE SAW EARLY THIS MORNING. NORTHWESTERLY FLOW
HAS BROUGHT ELEVATED WILDFIRE SMOKE BACK IN FROM THE PACIFIC
NORTHWEST. THIS WILL CONTINUE TO BE THE CASE THROUGHOUT AT LEAST
THE FIRST HALF OF THE WEEK. MODELS INDICATE THAT THE MAJORITY
OF THIS SMOKE WILL REMAIN ELEVATED, BUT SURFACE SMOKE ISN'T OUT
OF THE QUESTION FOR FAR WESTERN MINNESOTA. SURFACE WISE TODAY,
TEMPERATURES HAVE ONCE AGAIN REACHED 95 OR BETTER EARLY THIS
AFTERNOON ACROSS SOUTHEASTERN MINNESOTA AND WESTERN WISCONSIN
WHERE A HEAT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT THROUGH THIS EVENING.
HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO RUN A FEW DEGREES ABOVE
NORMAL IN THE UPPER 80S/LOW 90S WITH A FEW LOW CHANCES OF SPOTTY
AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND STORMS. POPS MAY NEED TO BE INCREASED
TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON, BUT FOR NOW ANY IMPACTS LOOK
MINIMAL. NBM DID INTRODUCE SOME 15-20% POPS FOR WEDNESDAY, WHICH
APPEARS REASONABLE.
WE DON'T SEE ANY WIDESPREAD/ORGANIZED PRECIP CHANCES UNTIL THURSDAY.
A TROUGH MOVING ALONG THE TOP OF THE RIDGE CENTERED OVER THE
SOUTHERN ROCKIES LOOKS TO DIG SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE DAKOTAS/MINNESOTA
BEFORE POTENTIALLY EVOLVING INTO A CUTOFF LOW LATE IN THE WEEK.
WIDESPREAD RAINFALL AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED LATE THURSDAY
THROUGH FRIDAY. WITH PWATS INCREASING TO 1.6 TO 1.8", WE WOULD
EXPECT THESE TO HOPEFULLY BRING THE REGION SOME MUCH NEEDED PRECIP.
QPF TOTALS RANGE FROM A QUARTER INCH FOR CENTRAL MINNESOTA TO AN
INCH OR BETTER TO THE SOUTH. THIS SYSTEM LOOKS TO MEANDER AROUND THE
WESTERN OHIO RIVER VALLEY INTO THE WEEKEND, WHICH WOULD ALLOW OUR
WESTERN WISCONSIN COUNTIES TO SEE CONTINUED LOW SHOWER CHANCES INTO
THE WEEKEND. FOLLOWING THE BULK OF THE RAINFALL FRIDAY, TEMPERATURES
DO FALL BACK INTO THE MID 80S, BUT THIS LOOKS TO BE SHORTLIVED ONCE
AGAIN WITH 90S POSSIBLE EARLY NEXT WEEK.
AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z WEDNESDAY/
ISSUED AT 1230 PM CDT MON JUL 27 2026
QUIET 18Z TAF PERIOD. NORTHWESTERLY WINDS GUST BETWEEN 20-25KTS
THIS AFTERNOON BEFORE DIMINISHING THIS EVENING. SKIES ARE MOSTLY
CLEAR OVER THE TERMINALS, HOWEVER SATELLITE REVEALS THE PRESENCE
OF WILDFIRE SMOKE ALOFT. SINCE THE SMOKE IS ELEVATED, I DID NOT
INCLUDE ANY MENTION IN THE NEW TAF PACKAGE, BUT WILL MONITOR
OBSERVATIONAL TRENDS THROUGH THE PERIOD. GUIDANCE DISPLAYS MID
TO HIGH CLOUDS MOVING OUT OF THE PLAINS TONIGHT, HOWEVER CLOUDS
LEVELS ARE FORECAST TO REMAIN AT VFR LEVELS. WINDS TURN OUT OF
THE ESE FOR TUESDAY AND SHOULD REMAIN LIGHT, BETWEEN 5-10KTS.
KMSP...NO ADDITIONAL CONCERNS.
/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/
WED...VFR. WIND S 5-10 KTS.
THU...VFR. TSRA LIKELY IN EVENING. WIND SSW 5-15 KTS.
FRI...VFR. WIND NE 5-10 KTS.
MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MN...HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR ANOKA-BLUE EARTH-
BROWN-CARVER-DAKOTA-FARIBAULT-FREEBORN-GOODHUE-HENNEPIN-
LE SUEUR-MARTIN-NICOLLET-RAMSEY-RICE-SCOTT-SIBLEY-STEELE-
WASECA-WASHINGTON-WATONWAN.
WI...HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR DUNN-EAU CLAIRE-
PEPIN-PIERCE-ST. CROIX.
DISCUSSION...DYE
AVIATION...STRUS
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