418
FXUS63 KMPX 201131
AFDMPX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
631 AM CDT THU AUG 20 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS THURSDAY EVENING ALONG A PASSING COLD
FRONT. A FEW SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS COULD PRODUCE LARGE HAIL
AND GUSTY WINDS.
- SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES AND MOSTLY DRY WEATHER THROUGH THE
WEEKEND INTO NEXT WEEK.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 253 AM CDT THU AUG 20 2026
OVERALL, NOT A LOT OF CHANGES IN THE FORECAST FROM PREVIOUS FORECAST
PACKAGES. NEXT CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL BE THIS AFTERNOON
AND EVENING, WITH PLEASANT CONDITIONS RETURNING FOR THE
WEEKEND. TEMPERATURES WILL HOVER RIGHT AROUND THE SEASONAL
AVERAGE THROUGH THE WEEKEND, BECOMING SLIGHTLY ABOVE AVERAGE
EARLY NEXT WEEK.
THURSDAY
THE NEXT UPPER LEVEL PIECE OF ENERGY EMBEDDED WITHIN THE NORTHWEST
FLOW ALOFT WILL DROP SOUTHEAST OUT OF THE CANADIAN PRAIRIES
THIS MORNING, BEFORE MOVING ACROSS ND/MN/WI. IN RESPONSE TO THIS
INCREASE IN UPPER LEVEL ENERGY, CORRESPONDING SURFACE LOW WILL
DEVELOP. WINDS WILL TURN BACK TO THE SW THIS MORNING, INCREASING
LOW LEVEL MOISTURE ADVECTION. WITH SUFFICIENT MOISTURE AND
FORCING IN PLACE, ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND EMBEDDED
THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP ACROSS NORTHERN AND CENTRAL MN. NOT
ALL LOCATIONS WILL SEE RAIN, THE FOCUS FOR THIS MORNING'S
ACTIVITY WILL BE ACROSS NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE CWA FROM
ALEXANDRIA TO MILLE LACS. THIS MORNING'S SCATTERED TO BROKEN
CLOUDS WILL GRADUALLY CLEAR OUT THROUGH THE DAY, ALLOWING FOR
INSTABILITY TO BUILD. BY THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING, THE FOCUS
WILL BE THE ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT AS IT DROPS SOUTHEAST ACROSS
MN. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL DEVELOP ALONG THIS
BOUNDARY, WITHIN A MODESTLY BUT SUFFICIENT ENVIRONMENT. WITH
1000-1500 J/KG, 6.5C/KM MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES, AND 30-40 KNOTS
OF DEEP LAYER SHEAR, AN ISOLATED STRONG TO SEVERE STORM OR TWO
WILL BE POSSIBLE. THE STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS A SLIGHT (2
OUT OF 5) RISK FOR SEVERE WEATHER THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING,
WITH STRONG WINDS AND HAIL BEING THE PRIMARY HAZARDS.
THIS WEEKEND AND EARLY NEXT WEEK
THEREAFTER, SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL SETTLE IN OUT OF CANADA UNDER
NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT. THIS HAS QUIET AND PLEASANT WEATHER
CONDITIONS WRITTEN ALL OVER IT. THAT'S WHAT WE CAN EXPECT HEADING
INTO THE FRIDAY AND SATURDAY TIMEFRAME. AFTERNOON DEW POINTS IN THE
MIDDLE TO UPPER 50S AND HIGH TEMPERATURES AROUND 80 DEGREES WILL
LEAD TO A GREAT START TO THE WEEKEND. ON SUNDAY, ANOTHER PIECE OF
ENERGY WILL EJECT OUT OF THE NORTHERN ROCKIES TOWARDS THE MIDWEST.
MODEL GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO SHOW THIS SYSTEM AND THE ASSOCIATED
MOISTURE MOVING EAST-SOUTHEAST ACROSS SD, IA, AND SOUTHERN MN ON
SUNDAY. THAT SAID, ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL BE
POSSIBLE ACROSS SOUTHWESTERN AND SOUTHERN MN SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND
EVENING.
BY EARLY NEXT WEEK, GLOBAL DETERMINISTIC MODELS AND THEIR ASSOCIATED
ENSEMBLE SUITES SHOW A STRONGER AND DEEPER UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM DIVING
SOUTHEAST OUT OF CANADA AND TOWARDS THE GREAT LAKES REGION. WITH
THERE STILL BEING A DEGREE OF UNCERTAINTY WITHIN RUN-TO-RUN MODEL
GUIDANCE, THE FINER DETAILS WILL NEED TO BE IRONED OUT IN THE COMING
DAYS. THAT SAID, LOW-END CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND STORMS RETURN TO THE
FORECAST DURING THE MONDAY TO TUESDAY TIMEFRAME.
AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY/
ISSUED AT 627 AM CDT THU AUG 20 2026
THE LINE OF SHOWERS ADVANCING SOUTHEAST IS EXPECTED TO HOLD
TOGETHER ENOUGH TO RESULT IN -SHRA AT STC/MSP/RWF/RNH, WITH
LOWER CHANCES FOR MKT/EAU. THERE HAS BEEN LIMITED LIGHTNING
WITHIN THIS LINE, BUT BRIEF FLASHES OF -TSRA ARE ALSO POSSIBLE.
THIS IS ROUND ONE OF THE DAY, WITH A SECOND ROUND OF ISOLATED TO
SCATTERED -TSRA EXPECTED TO FORM AROUND 22-23Z IN CENTRAL/EAST-
CENTRAL MN AND ADVANCE SOUTHEAST ALONG A COLD FRONT. DUE TO THE
ISOLATED/SCATTERED NATURE OF THE EXPECTED STORMS, WE CONTINUE TO
CARRY PROB30 GROUPS FOR THE AFFECTED SITES AS CONFIDENCE IS NOT
HIGH ENOUGH TO GO PREVAILING JUST YET. WINDS WILL INCREASE
BETWEEN THE MORNING AND EVENING ROUNDS OF PRECIPITATION,
GENERALLY AT 180-210 AT OR BELOW 10KTS WITH LIMITED GUSTING UP
TO 20KTS. WINDS WILL SHIFT TOWARDS 270-300 LATE IN THE PERIOD
WITH SPEEDS UNDER 10KTS.
KMSP...THE CAMS CONTINUE TO HOLD TOGETHER THE LINE OF -SHRA
ENOUGH TO REACH MSP THIS MORNING, SO WENT WITH A TEMPO GROUP
DURING THE MOST LIKELY 2 HOUR WINDOW. THE -TSRA CHANCE LATER IS
STILL EXPECTED, HOWEVER COVERAGE MAY RESULT IN ONLY INTERMITTENT
-TSRA AT THE TERMINAL.
/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/
SAT...VFR. WIND NW 5-10KTS.
SUN...VFR. WIND NE 5KTS.
MON...VFR, CHC MVFR/-SHRA LATE. WIND S 5-10KTS.
MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MN...NONE.
WI...NONE.
DISCUSSION...LPR
AVIATION...TDH
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