100
FXUS63 KMPX 200004
AFDMPX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
704 PM CDT FRI AUG 19 2022
DISCUSSION
(THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 324 PM CDT FRI AUG 19 2022
KEY MESSAGES:
- SLOW MOVING SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS COULD PRODUCE
LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN THROUGH THIS EVENING.
- LIGHT WINDS AND SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES THIS WEEKEND AND NEXT
WEEK, WITH RAINFALL CHANCES RETURNING MID-WEEK.
TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY...A STACKED UPPER LEVEL LOW WAS SLOWLY SPINNING
OVERHEAD, PRODUCING CLOUDS, SHOWERS AND EVEN A FEW THUNDERSTORMS.
THIS COVERAGE IN RAINFALL SHOULD INCREASE ALONG THE I-35 CORRIDOR
LATER THIS AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING. THE THREAT FOR SEVERE WEATHER
IS LOW, BUT LOCALIZED HEAVY RAINFALL IS POSSIBLE. MID LEVEL LAPSE
RATES ARE NEARLY MOIST ADIABATIC, AND THE OVERALL WIND FIELD IS
LIGHT WHICH ARE LIMITING FACTORS IN THE AMOUNT OF CAPE AND SHEAR,
AND THEREFORE SEVERE WEATHER. THE MAIN CONCERN IS LOCALIZED HEAVY
RAIN DUE TO THE SLOW-MOVING NATURE OF THE STORMS, AND ALSO THE
POTENTIAL FOR WET MICROBURSTS. THE COVERAGE AND INTENSITY SHOULD
DECREASE TOWARD SUNSET, WITH MOST LOCATIONS DRYING OUT OVERNIGHT.
AREAS OF FOG ARE POSSIBLE AS WELL. ON SATURDAY THERE ARE SMALL
CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS AGAIN ACROSS SOUTHERN/EASTERN
MINNESOTA INTO WESTERN WISCONSIN, BUT MOST LOCATIONS SHOULD REMAIN
DRY AS THE SYSTEM BEGINS TO EXIT THE REGION TO THE SOUTHEAST. BY
SATURDAY NIGHT SKIES WILL START TO CLEAR AS UPPER LEVEL RIDGE AND
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS ACROSS THE REGION. THE COMBINATION OF
LOW LEVEL MOISTURE, CLEARING SKIES, AND LIGHT WINDS SHOULD LEAD TO
AREAS OF FOG SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY MORNING. ON SUNDAY THE FOG
SHOULD BURN OFF, BUT IT MIGHT BE SLOW TO DO SO GIVEN THE LIGHT WINDS.
MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...HIGH PRESSURE WILL KEEP THE REGION DRY
MONDAY AND TUESDAY, BUT MESSY NORTHWEST FLOW WITH WEAK EMBEDDED
SHORTWAVES WILL BRING CHANCES FOR RAIN TUESDAY NIGHT INTO THE END OF
THE WEEK. EXPECT MORE OF THE SAME WITH SCATTERED SLOW MOVING
THUNDERSTORMS WITH A LOW RISK OF SEVERE WEATHER, BUT POSSIBLE
LOCALIZED HEAVY RAIN. TEMPERATURES WILL BE NEAR THE SEASONAL AVERAGE
FOR LATE AUGUST.
AVIATION
(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SATURDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 649 PM CDT FRI AUG 19 2022
SHOWER COVERAGE WILL CONTINUE TO DIMINISH OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS AS
THE ATMO HAS BECOME QUITE WORKED OVER AND WE'LL BE LOSING DAYTIME
HEATING. AFTER THAT, IT'S A QUESTION OF HOW STRATUS/FOG DEVELOPS
TONIGHT. HREF SHOWS THIS BEING MORE OF A STRATUS THAN A FOG SETUP,
BUT MODELS ARE ALL OVER THE BOARD FOR HOW WIDESPREAD IT WILL BE.
GIVEN THE MOIST LOW LEVELS AND FAVORABLE NORTHEAST WINDS (FOR
FOG/STRATUS), FAVORED THE PESSIMISTIC END OF THINGS FOR THE STRATUS
TONIGHT. IT WILL BE A SLOW GO TO CLEAR OUT THE CLOUDS SATURDAY GIVEN
THE LIGHT WINDS. SHOWER ACTIVITY SATURDAY AFTERNOON LOOKS ISOLATED AT
BEST ACROSS WESTERN WI AND SOUTHEAST MN, SO HAVE KEPT TAFS DRY FOR
SATURDAY.
KMSP...CHANCES FOR SHOWERS LOOKS TO ALL BUT DISAPPEAR AT 4Z. MODELS
ARE ALL OVER THE BOARD FOR HOW STRATUS WILL EVOLVE TONIGHT, BUT THE
LAV TRENDS LOOK REASONABLE FOR STRATUS EVOLUTION TONIGHT, SO HAVE THE
TAF FOLLOWING ALONG THOSE LINES. MSP LOOKS TO BE DRY FOR SATURDAY,
WITH ANY AFTERNOON ACTIVITY REMAINING EAST/SOUTHEAST OF THE FIELD.
/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/
SUN...VFR. CHC MORNING BR/FG. WIND NE 5-10 KTS.
MON...VFR. WIND N 5 KTS.
TUE...VFR. WIND SE 5-10 KTS.
MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MN...NONE.
WI...NONE.
DISCUSSION...JRB
AVIATION...MPG
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