777
FXUS63 KMPX 171857
AFDMPX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
157 PM CDT SAT OCT 17 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND DRY WEATHER EXPECTED THROUGH
THE NEXT WEEK.
- NEXT CHANCES FOR RAIN NOT IN THE FORECAST UNTIL NEXT WEEKEND.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 157 PM CDT SAT OCT 17 2026
HIGH PRESSURE THIS AFTERNOON IS SLIDING INTO ARKANSAS, BRINGING TO
AN END OUR BRIEF FORAY INTO COOLER OCTOBER WEATHER. BREEZY SOUTHWEST
WINDS HAVE DEVELOPED, WITH TEMPERATURES THIS AFTERNOON RETURNING TO
NEAR NORMAL LEVELS AFTER A CHILLY START TO THE DAY, WHICH SAW OUR
FIRST WIDESPREAD FREEZE OF THE SEASON OUTSIDE OF THE TWIN CITIES
URBAN CORE. MSP GOT DOWN TO 36 THIS MORNING, THE FIRST TIME MSP HAS
DIPPED BELOW 40 THIS FALL, TYING 1931 FOR THE LATEST FIRST TRIP
BELOW 40 IN THE FALL ON RECORD.
FOR THE REST OF THE WEEK, WE GET INTO A "STUCK" WEATHER PATTERN. THE
TROUGH CURRENTLY OVER THE EAST COAST WILL DEVELOP INTO A CUT-OFF LOW
IN THE WESTERN ATLANTIC AS RIDGE BUILDS OVER THE TOP OF IT FROM THE
PLAINS TO NEW ENGLAND. THIS RIDGE WILL PUSH THE NORTHERN STREAM BACK
NORTH INTO CANADA, ALLOWING A VERY MILD AIRMASS TO OVERSPREAD THE
CONUS EAST OF THE ROCKIES. WE'LL HAVE HIGHS IN THE 60S MONDAY AND
TUESDAY, BUT FROM WEDNESDAY INTO NEXT WEEKEND, HIGHS IN THE 70S WILL
BECOME RATHER COMMON. FORTUNATELY, THESE WARMER TEMPERATURES WILL
COME WITH DEWPOINTS IN THE 50S, WHICH WILL KEEP US FRONT HAVING ANY
SIGNIFICANT FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS. THE NEXT CHANCE RAIN HAS NOW
PUSHED OFF TO NEXT WEEKEND, WHEN A WEAKENING COLD FRONT IS FORECAST
TO MAKE A RUN INTO THE RIDGE. GIVEN THE FORCING LOOKS WEEK AND THE
ANTECEDENT AIRMASS IS WARM AND DRY, I WOULDN'T COUNT ON THESE RAIN
CHANCES REMAINING IN THE FORECAST AS NEXT WEEKEND MOVES INTO THE 5
DAYS OR LESS PERIOD.
FINALLY, THROUGH THE FIRST HALF OF OCTOBER, THE AVERAGE TEMPERATURE
AT MSP WAS 60 DEGREES. A FULL 7 DEGREES WARMER THAN NORMAL AND 0.8
DEGREES WARMER THAN 1947, THE CURRENT WARMEST OCTOBER ON RECORD.
WE'RE NOW GETTING INTO THE "COLD HALF" OF OCTOBER, WHICH SHOULD
START CHIPPING AWAY AT THAT AVERAGE TEMPERATURE, BUT THERE'S VERY
LITTLE IN THE WAY OF COLD AIR HIGHLIGHTED BY THE ENSEMBLES FOR THE
REST OF THE MONTH AND IT MAY BE TOUGH FOR US TO CHIP AWAY AT OUR
LEAD ENOUGH TO NOT FINISH IN THE TOP SPOT FOR WARMEST OCTOBER ON
RECORD. SOMETHING TO WATCH OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF WEEKS.
AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z MONDAY/
ISSUED AT 1232 PM CDT SAT OCT 17 2026
MIXING AND A TIGHTENING PRESSURE GRADIENT HAS ALLOWED SOUTHWEST
WINDS TO QUICKLY KICK UP TODAY. WINDS THIS PERIOD WILL REMAIN IN
THE 190-210 DIRECTION RANGE, WITH SPEEDS TAKING A SMALL STEP
BACK AFTER SUNSET. SOME MINOR WIND SHEAR IS EXPECTED TONIGHT FOR
ALL BUT AXN, BUT KEPT IT'S MENTION OUT AS IT IS JUST GETTING TO
THE STRENGTH WHERE YOU COULD INSERT IT INTO THE TAFS.
KMSP...NO ADDITIONAL CONCERNS.
/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/
MON...VFR. WIND VRB 5 KTS.
TUE...VFR. WIND SSE 10G20 KTS.
WED...VFR. WIND SW 10-15 KTS.
MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MN...NONE.
WI...NONE.
DISCUSSION...MPG
AVIATION...MPG
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.
Main Text Page