507
FXUS63 KMPX 080100
AFDMPX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
800 PM CDT TUE JUL 7 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- FLOOD WATCH FOR HEAVY RAIN AND FLASH FLOOD POTENTIAL DUE TO
TRAINING THUNDERSTORMS TONIGHT ACROSS CENTRAL MN.
- ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SEVERE STORMS EXPECTED FOR WEST-CENTRAL
MN SOUTH OF THE HEAVIEST RAINFALL.
- HEAVY RAIN AND SEVERE WEATHER RISK SHIFT TO EASTERN MN AND
WESTERN WI FOR WEDNESDAY.
- DRIER AND MUCH WARMER PATTERN EXPECTED THIS WEEKEND AND INTO
NEXT WEEK.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 334 PM CDT TUE JUL 7 2026
TONIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY... THE PRIMARY FORECAST CONCERN CONTINUES
TO BE THE POTENTIAL FOR VERY HEAVY RAIN AMOUNTS AND LOCALIZED
FLASH FLOODING TONIGHT ACROSS CENTRAL MINNESOTA. THERE ARE
SEVERAL FACTORS THAT POINT TOWARDS THIS BEING A PRIME
ENVIRONMENT FOR FLOODING; FAVORABLE SOUNDINGS WITH LONG AND
SKINNY CAPE PROFILES, WARM CLOUD LAYER DEPTH OVER 12K FT, PWATS
WITHIN THE 99TH PERCENTILE FOR EARLY JULY, AND RELATIVELY SLOW
CLOUD LAYER WINDS PARALLEL TO THE BOUNDARY. THE ONE CAVEAT IS
THAT MANY OF THE HI-RES MODELS HAVE STRUGGLED TO CAPTURE THE
MORNING CONVECTION THAT TRACKED ACROSS EASTERN SODAK AND WESTERN
MINNESOTA. WHILE THESE STORMS MAY END UP LIMITING STORM
DEVELOPMENT LATER TODAY, THE MORE LIKELY IMPACT IS THAT WE SEE
THE STATIONARY BOUNDARY SET UP FURTHER SOUTH THAN WHAT THE MODEL
CONSENSUS HAS BEEN UP TO THIS POINT. IN FACT, YOU ARE ALREADY
BEGINNING TO SEE THAT SHIFT WITH THE SOME OF THE LATEST 18Z
MODEL RUNS (INCLUDING THE HRRR AND RRFS). WHEREVER THIS BOUNDARY
OFFICIALLY SETS UP, WILL BE THE AXIS FOR THE HIGHEST RAIN
AMOUNTS OVERNIGHT. AS THE LLJ INCREASES TONIGHT, EFFICIENT
MOISTURE ADVECTION AND LIFT WILL OCCUR ON THE NOSE OF THE JET
(NEAR THE STATIONARY BOUNDARY). AS STORMS GO UP ALONG THE
BOUNDARY, THEY WILL PUSH EAST, LEAVING SPACE FOR MORE STORMS TO
BUILD BEHIND THEM. RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 1-3" ARE EXPECTED, WITH
LOCALIZED AMOUNTS OF 4 OR MORE INCHES POSSIBLE WITHIN THIS ZONE
OF TRAINING STORMS. THE HREF ENSEMBLE MAX AMOUNTS PEAK AROUND
5-6". A FLOOD WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED TO HIGHLIGHT THIS POTENTIAL
FOR HEAVY RAINFALL AND FLASH FLOODING DUE TO TRAINING
THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS CENTRAL MN OVERNIGHT.
THE CONVECTION THIS MORNING AND AFTERNOON SHOULD LIMIT THE
OVERALL SEVERE THREAT TONIGHT, OR AT THE VERY LEAST KEEP THE
MAJORITY OF IT SOUTH OF I-94 WITHING THE MOIST/UNSTABLE WARM
SECTOR. THE GREATEST SEVERE THREAT WOULD BE DAMAGING WINDS AND
LARGE HAIL, BUT A TORNADO OR TWO CANNOT BE RULED OUT GIVEN LOW
LCLS.
THE BOUNDARY SHIFTS SOUTH TOMORROW, SHIFTING THE HEAVY RAIN AND
SEVERE WEATHER RISK WITH IT AS WELL. THIS WILL PUT EASTERN
MINNESOTA AND WESTERN WISCONSIN UNDER THE MAIN RISKS, WITH
SEVERE WIND AND HAIL THE MAIN THREATS. DEPENDING ON HOW FAR
SOUTH THE BOUNDARY SETS UP, SOUTHEAST MN MAY BE LOOKING AT A
HIGHER RISK FOR ANY FLOODING GIVEN THE RECENT HEAVY RAIN ACROSS
THE REGION JUST A FEW DAYS AGO. A FLOOD WATCH IS NOT AS LIKELY
TOMORROW, THOUGH IT A SHORT FUSED ALERT MAY BE LEVERAGED IF
NEEDED.
THURSDAY INTO NEXT WEEK... ANY LINGERING RAIN SHOULD BE MOSTLY
WRAPPED BY THURSDAY, BRINGING US TO A STRETCH OF DRIER WEATHER
WITH UPPER LEVEL HEIGHTS BUILDING OVERHEAD. THERE CONTINUES TO
BE A STRONG SIGNAL FOR PROLONGED HEAT. HUMIDITY IS EXPECTED TO
BE NOT AS DRAMATIC AS OUR PREVIOUS STINT OF HEAT, WITH DEWPOINTS
IN THE MID 60S. THIS WILL BE THE MAIN TALKING POINT AFTER
GETTING PAST OUR ACTIVE WEATHER TONIGHT AND TOMORROW.
AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY/
ISSUED AT 747 PM CDT TUE JUL 7 2026
TRANQUIL START TO THE TAFS AS PRECIP HAS DISSIPATED ACROSS THE
ENTIRETY OF THE WFO MPX COVERAGE AREA AT INITIALIZATION TIME.
HOWEVER, CAMS STILL PORTRAY A COMPLEX OF RA/TSRA MOVING EASTWARD
FROM THE DAKOTAS LATE THIS EVENING AND THROUGH MUCH OF THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS FROM WEST-CENTRAL TO EAST-CENTRAL MN INTO
NORTHWESTERN WI. FAIRLY HIGH CONFIDENCE THAT ALL TAF SITES
NORTH OF RWF-MKT WILL SEE A COMBINATION OF RA/TSRA FOR MULTIPLE
PERIODS DURING THE FIRST HALF OF THIS TAF PERIOD, WITH
CONDITIONS LIKELY INTO MVFR AND POSSIBLY IFR. AFTER THIS MORNING
ROUND OF CONVECTION, THERE IS A CHANCE OF AN ADDITIONAL ROUND OF
RA/TSRA MID-TO-LATE AFTERNOON WEDNESDAY, MAINLY FOR SOUTHERN-
EASTERN MN INTO WESTERN WI. THE EARLIER TIMEFRAME HAS THE BETTER
CONFIDENCE, THUS HAVE USED TEMPO FOR THE EARLIER TIMEFRAME THEN
TRANSITIONED TO PROB30S FOR THE LATER TIMEFRAME. WINDS WILL ALSO
BE TRICKY WITH THE SURFACE FRONT RESPONSIBLE FOR THE
PRECIPITATION SITTING ACROSS MN/WI THROUGHOUT THIS TAF PERIOD.
SPEEDS UNDER 10KT EXPECTED THROUGHOUT BUT THE DIRECTIONS MAY RUN
VARIABLE FROM TIME TO TIME.
KMSP...VFR TO START WITH FAIRLY THICK MID-LEVEL CLOUDS AT
INITIALIZATION. FIRST WINDOW FOR RA/TSRA LOOKS TO OVERNIGHT,
PRIOR TO AND THROUGH SUNRISE (THUS POTENTIALLY IMPACTING MORNING
PUSH TRAFFIC). CURRENTLY HAVE CONDITIONS WITHIN MVFR BUT IFR
CONDITIONS DUE TO VISIBILITY IN HEAVIER RAIN AND/OR LOW CEILINGS
CANNOT BE RULED OUT. CLOUDS THEN REMAIN IN PLACE THROUGHOUT THE
DAY WITH SOME UNCERTAINTY AS TO WHETHER AN ADDITIONAL ROUND OF
CONVECTION DEVELOPS EARLY-MID AFTERNOON. CURRENTLY HAVE THAT
SECOND/LATER ROUND AS A PROB30 AND WILL NEED TO SEE HOW MODELS
EVOLVE THAT ROUND. BUT, TSRA STILL VIABLE IN THAT AFTERNOON
ROUND SO HAVE KEPT ITS MENTION THERE AS WELL. WINDS WILL REMAIN
UNDER 10KTS OUTSIDE OF CONVECTION, SO IT BECOMES A MATTER OF
QUICK DIRECTIONAL CHANGES WITH THE SURFACE FRONT ATOP THE AREA
AND CONVECTION OUTFLOWS MAKING FOR SHORT-DURATION CHANGES.
/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/
THU...MVFR CHC IFR CIGS IN MRNG. VFR AFTN. WIND NE 5-10KTS.
FRI...VFR. WIND SE 5KTS.
SAT...VFR. WIND S 5-10KTS.
MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MN...FLOOD WATCH FROM 10 PM CDT THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY
MORNING FOR DOUGLAS-POPE-STEARNS-STEVENS-TODD.
FLOOD WATCH FROM 10 PM CDT THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY
MORNING FOR BENTON-KANABEC-MILLE LACS-MORRISON.
WI...NONE.
DISCUSSION...BED
AVIATION...JPC
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