423  
FXUS63 KMPX 160858  
AFDMPX  
 
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION  
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN  
358 AM CDT TUE JUL 16 2019  
   
SHORT TERM
 
(TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)  
ISSUED AT 324 AM CDT TUE JUL 16 2019  
 
A FRONTAL BOUNDARY WAS SLOWLY MOVING SOUTHEAST ACROSS SOUTHERN  
MINNESOTA EARLY THIS MORNING. ALTHOUGH THE PRESSURE GRADIENT IS  
WEAK, THERE IS ENOUGH DRIER AIR BEHIND THIS WIND SHIFT TO HOLD OFF  
THE RECENT EXCESSIVE HUMIDITY FOR MOST OF MINNESOTA. THEREFORE, HEAT  
INDICES WILL ONLY REACH THE LOW TO MID 90S, VS THE UPPER 90S TO  
LOWER 100S ON MONDAY. THIS FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL STALL THIS MORNING  
ALONG THE IOWA BORDER. THIS IS WHERE THE BULK OF THE CONVECTION WILL  
REDEVELOP THIS MORNING, AND THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. AREAS FROM  
FAIRMONT TO OWATONNA, AND SOUTHWARD WILL HAVE THE BEST CHANCE OF  
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS LATER TODAY. THE HUMIDITY LEVELS WILL ALSO  
BE MORE NOTICEABLE IN THESE AREAS. ELSEWHERE, THE CHANCES OF  
PRECIPITATION ARE MUCH LOWER, AND MOST AREAS WILL BE DRY.  
 
LATER TONIGHT, A COMPLEX OF STORMS SHOULD REDEVELOP ACROSS THE  
DAKOTAS IN RESPONSE TO A POTENT SHORT WAVE MOVING ACROSS THE PACIFIC  
NORTHWEST THIS MORNING. THIS SHORT WAVE, IN COMBINATION OF THE  
FRONTAL BOUNDARY RETURNING NORTHWARD, SHOULD PROVIDE FOR SCATTERED  
SHOWERS/STORMS IN WESTERN MINNESOTA LATE TONIGHT, AND ACROSS THE  
REST OF MINNESOTA TOWARD WEDNESDAY MORNING. THERE REMAINS SOME  
DISAGREEMENTS IN THE MODELS ON THE ORIENTATION OF THE SHORT WAVE  
LATER TONIGHT. THE EC HAS THE BULK OF THE PRECIPITATION IN  
NEBRASKA/SOUTH DAKOTA, AND MOVING THIS AREA ACROSS FAR SOUTHERN  
MINNESOTA/IOWA WEDNESDAY. THE GFS IS FARTHER TO THE NORTH WHICH  
BRINGS HEAVIER, AND MORE WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION ACROSS  
CENTRAL/SOUTHERN MINNESOTA ON WEDNESDAY. EITHER WAY, CHANCES OF A  
MORE ORGANIZED PRECIPITATION EVENT ON WEDNESDAY IS MORE LIKELY THAN  
TODAY. THE CHANCES OF SEVERE WEATHER ARE ALSO BETTER ON WEDNESDAY  
BASED ON THE INCREASING WIND SHEAR AS THE UPPER JET MOVES FARTHER  
SOUTH ACROSS THE NORTHERN TIER OF THE NATION BY MIDWEEK.  
   
LONG TERM
 
(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)  
ISSUED AT 324 AM CDT TUE JUL 16 2019  
 
UPPER RIDGING WILL RETAIN ITS GRIP ON THE REGION THROUGH FRIDAY,  
WITH HOT TEMPERATURES AGAIN ON FRIDAY. HOWEVER, THERE IS  
REASONABLE MODEL CONSENSUS ON TROUGHING DEVELOPING OVER THE REGION  
BY THE SECOND HALF OF THE WEEKEND INTO NEXT WEEK AS UPPER RIDGING  
DEVELOPS OVER THE WEST. THIS SHOULD ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO RETURN  
CLOSER TO NORMAL (IF NOT A BIT COOLER) BY EARLY NEXT WEEK. WE'LL  
SEE SOME SUBSIDENCE AND DRIER AIR WORK INTO THE AREA LATE  
WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY, BUT THUNDERSTORM CHANCES WILL RETURN  
FRIDAY AFTERNOON AS THE WARM FRONTAL BOUNDARY BECOMES BETTER  
DEFINED ACROSS THE AREA AHEAD OF A SHORTWAVE TROUGH THAT WILL WORK  
THROUGH THE REGION SATURDAY. THE GUIDANCE IS STILL NOT IN VERY  
GOOD AGREEMENT ON THE TIMING OR AMPLITUDE OF THIS FEATURE, WHICH  
WILL IMPACT HOW LONG THE HEAT LINGERS ACROSS THE REGION BEFORE  
SIGNIFICANTLY COOLER AND DRIER CONDITIONS ARRIVE. AS A A RESULT,  
RETAINED SOME CHANCE POPS THROUGH MOST OF THE WEEKEND, ALTHOUGH  
SUNDAY CERTAINLY LOOKS LIKE THE DRIER OF THE TWO DAYS AT THIS  
POINT.  
 

 
   
AVIATION
 
(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z WEDNESDAY MORNING)  
ISSUED AT 355 AM CDT TUE JUL 16 2019  
 
VERY SIMILAR TAFS AS WITH THE 06Z TAF ISSUANCE AS THE BULK OF THE  
TSRA/SHRA WILL OCCUR LATE TONIGHT, ESPECIALLY ACROSS WESTERN  
MINNESOTA. A FEW TSRA ARE POSSIBLE NEAR KMKT LATER THIS  
MORNING/AFTERNOON, BUT BELIEVE MOST OF THE ACTIVITY WILL BE SOUTH  
OF THE AIRPORT. LIGHT WEST/NORTHWEST WIND TODAY, BECOMING  
EAST/SOUTHEAST OVERNIGHT.  
 
KMSP...  
 
ONLY CHANGE TO THIS TAF WAS TO INTRODUCE A PREDOMINATE SHRA/VCTS  
AFTER 12Z WEDNESDAY. THIS WILL LIKELY BE ADJUSTED AS TSRA BEGIN TO  
DEVELOP LATE TONIGHT. OTHERWISE, NO OTHER CHANGES.  
 
/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/  
 
WED AFTN/EVENING...VFR/MVFR WITH TSRA LIKELY. WINDS SE 10 KTS.  
THU...VFR. WINDS LIGHT AND VARIABLE.  
FRI...VFR. ISOLATED TSRA. WINDS SW 5 KTS.  
 

 
   
MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
 
 
WI...NONE.  
MN...NONE.  

 
 

 
 
SHORT TERM...JLT  
LONG TERM...  
AVIATION...JLT  
 
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