829
FXUS63 KMPX 030012
AFDMPX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
712 PM CDT THU JUL 2 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- ADDITIONAL ROUNDS OF THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE THIS EVENING AND
OVER NEXT FEW DAYS. DAMAGING WIND GUSTS AND LOCALLY HEAVY
RAIN WILL BE THE PRIMARY HAZARDS WITH THESE STORMS.
- WARM AND MUGGY WEATHER CONTINUES INTO NEXT WEEK.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 205 PM CDT THU JUL 2 2026
AH, THE CHALLENGES OF FORECASTING SUMMER CONVECTION! THE EARLY
AFTERNOON SATELLITE PICTURE IS FAIRLY BUSY, WITH PLENTY OF CLOUD
DEBRIS OVER SOUTHERN MN & WESTERN WI FOLLOWING THIS MORNING'S
STORMS. FACTOR IN THE CLOUD COVER WITH THE PRESENCE OF A FEW
REMNANT BOUNDARIES AND THE FORECAST TAKES A RATHER COMPLEX TURN,
WITH LOWER THAN USUAL CONFIDENCE ON ADDITIONAL PRECIPITATION WINDOWS
AND ANTICIPATED INTENSITIES OF SEVERE WEATHER. THE LARGE SCALE VIEW
DISPLAYS TROUGHING OVER THE WESTERN CONUS AND RIDGING OVER THE OHIO
VALLEY. THE UPPER MIDWEST IS POSITIONED WITHIN A REGION OF ZONAL WSW
FLOW BETWEEN THESE FEATURES. GUIDANCE DISPLAYS SEVERAL "RIPPLES"
WITHIN THE FLOW THAT ARE CAPABLE OF INITIATING THUNDERSTORMS, BUT
THESE CAN BE A CHALLENGE TO RESOLVE IN WEAKLY FORCED ENVIRONMENTS
WHICH IS LIKELY WHY WE'VE CONTINUED TO OBSERVE RUN TO RUN CHANGES
ACROSS THE CAM SUITE. THE BEST PATH FORWARD IS TO PAIR THE ANTICIPATED
ENVIRONMENT WITH THE REAL TIME SURFACE TRENDS, WHICH HAS RESULTED
IN A DOWNGRADE OF SEVERE WEATHER PROBABILITIES FROM SPC THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THE LATEST DAY 1 OUTLOOK TRIMMED THE
ENHANCED RISK (LEVEL 3/5) ALL THE WAY BACK TO THE FAR WESTERN
PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA ALONG THE BUFFALO RIDGE. A MORE
EXPANSIVE SLIGHT RISK (LEVEL 2/5) REMAINS IN PLACE FROM THE MN
RIVER TO ROUGHLY THE I-94 CORRIDOR IN MN/WI AND A MARGINAL RISK
(LEVEL 1/5) COVERS EAST CENTRAL MN AND THE REST OF WESTERN WI.
EARLY AFTERNOON RADAR DISPLAYS THE EASTWARD DEPARTURE OF THE
MORNING STORMS INTO SOUTHEASTERN MN. STRONGER STORMS ARE ONGOING
ACROSS NORTHERN IA AND WILL MOVE EAST, AWAY FROM OUR FORECAST
AREA. BACK TO THE WEST, IR SATELLITE SUCCESSFUL ATTEMPTS AT
CONVECTIVE INITIATION ACROSS THE DAKOTAS, WHICH ARE TIED TO A
SUBTLE SHORTWAVE WITHIN THE AFOREMENTIONED WSW FLOW ALOFT. IT'S
THE EVOLUTION OF THESE STORMS THAT WILL BE THE FOCUS THIS
AFTERNOON AND INTO THE NIGHT. CAMS OFFER A MYRIAD OF SOLUTIONS,
FROM A WELL-DEFINED MCS OR TWO AND THE POTENTIAL FOR SLOW-
MOVING/TRAINING THUNDERSTORMS. IT SEEMS THAT THE MOST LIKELY
SCENARIO IS FOR A COMPLEX OF STORMS TO DEVELOP AND MOVE TO THE
ESE ACROSS SOUTHEASTERN SD INTO SOUTHWESTERN MN/NORTHWESTERN IA
THIS EVENING ALONG AN EXISTING INSTABILITY GRADIENT. THESE
STORMS WOULD BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING DAMAGING WIND GUSTS IN
EXCESS OF 70 MPH AND ARE TIED TO THE ENHANCED RISK THAT WAS
SHIFTED LARGELY TO THE SOUTHWEST OF OUR FORECAST AREA. A NEW
SEVERE T-STORM WATCH WAS RECENTLY ISSUED ACROSS EASTERN SD TO
CAPTURE THESE TRENDS. CAMS HIGHLIGHT ADDITIONAL STORMS DEVELOPING
AND ADVANCING FROM WESTERN MN INTO CENTRAL MN THIS EVENING,
WHICH MAY POSE A DAMAGING WIND & LARGE HAIL THREAT OWING TO
2000-2500 J/KG OF MUCAPE AND EFFECTIVE DEEP-LAYER SHEAR ~30KTS.
THE OTHER PIECE OF THE ONGOING PUZZLE IS THE HYDRO SCENARIO,
GIVEN POTENTIAL FOR BACK-BUILDING/TRAINING OF STORMS AND THE
PRESENCE OF THE SOUPY ATMOSPHERIC MOISTURE CHARACTERIZED BY A
NEARLY 2 SIGMA PWAT ANOMALY. THE AREA OF GREATEST CONCERN FOR A
FLASH FLOOD THREAT WILL BE ACROSS SOUTHERN MN/I-90 WHERE MULTIPLE
ROUNDS OF THUNDERSTORMS OCCURRED THIS MORNING. FOLLOWING LATEST
TRENDS IN CONVECTIVE GUIDANCE THAT PLACE THE HEAVIEST RAINFALL
AXIS SOUTH OF THE MN/IA BORDER TONIGHT, WE HAVE OPTED TO REFRAIN
FROM ISSUING A FLOOD WATCH ACROSS SOUTHERN MN. WE WILL PUNT TO
THE EVENING SHIFT FOR AN ADDITIONAL LOOK AT BOUNDARY PLACEMENT
AND TRENDS TO THE WEST AND MAY EXPAND THE WATCH THAT RUNS UP THE
MN/IA IF NECESSARY.
LINGERING CONVECTION FROM TONIGHT LIKELY CONTINUES INTO FRIDAY
MORNING, WHICH ONCE AGAIN INTRODUCES UNCERTAINTY INTO THE TIMING
OF POP WINDOWS. WE'LL TAKE A BLEND OF CONVECTIVE GUIDANCE AND
RUN WITH A FORECAST THAT FEATURES 20-30% POPS IN THE MORNING,
FOLLOWED BY A LULL IN THE AFTERNOON. TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST
TO CLIMB INTO THE MID 80S AND WILL PAIR WITH LOW 70S DEW POINTS
FOR ANOTHER DAY OF WARMTH AND INCREASED HUMIDITY. A STRONGER
SHORTWAVE IS FORECAST TO TRAVERSE THE WSW FLOW ACROSS THE
DAKOTAS TOMORROW EVENING AND MAY FORCE YET ANOTHER COMPLEX/ES
THAT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION TOMORROW NIGHT INTO SATURDAY
MORNING. ANY STORMS THAT MOVE THROUGH WILL POSE A DAMAGING WIND
AND LARGE HAIL THREAT.
THE 4TH OF JULY WILL LIKELY FEATURE ONGOING CONVECTION SOMEWHERE
ACROSS THE UPPER MIDWEST/NEAR THE FORECAST AREA TO OPEN THE DAY TIED
TO FRIDAY NIGHT'S STORMS. AS WITH THE PREVIOUS ROUNDS OF STORMS,
WE'LL CONTINUE TO MONITOR FOR SLOW STORM MOTIONS THAT MAY SUPPORT
A LOCALIZED FLOOD THREAT. DO ANTICIPATE SOME DRY TIME FOLLOWING
THE MORNING STORMS AND COVERAGE OF ADDITIONAL STORMS LATER IN
THE DAY SHOULD BE LIMITED, SAY SCATTERED AT BEST, GIVEN A LACK
OF A LARGE SCALE FORCING MECHANISM. THE WARM, HUMID, MOIST
ATMOSPHERE WILL FUEL THE POTENTIAL FOR AIR MASS THUNDERSTORMS
CAPABLE OF PRODUCING HEAVY RAIN AND FREQUENT LIGHTNING, HOWEVER
THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT IS CURRENTLY LOW SATURDAY AFTERNOON
AND EVENING.
A BREAK IN THE ACTIVE PATTERN LOOKS TO SETUP SUNDAY-TUESDAY, AS
~588DM RIDGING EXPANDS NORTH OF THE UPPER MIDWEST AND ASSOCIATED
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE GREAT LAKES. TEMPERATURES
SHOULD RUN NEAR NORMAL IN THE MID 80S THROUGH AT LEAST THE FIRST
HALF OF NEXT WEEK. THE BREAKDOWN OF THE RIDGING IS ACCOMPANIED BY
THE RETURN OF PRECIPITATION CHANCES ACROSS THE ENSEMBLE MEMBERSHIP
FOR THE SECOND HALF OF NEXT WEEK.
AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY/
ISSUED AT 653 PM CDT THU JUL 2 2026
A HIGHLY UNCERTAIN TAF GIVEN SEVERAL CHANCES FOR SCATTERED
STORMS, SOME STRONG TO SEVERE, AND UNCERTAINTY ON SPECIFIC
PLACEMENT, TIMING, AND GENERAL EVOLUTION. WINDS WILL BE
GENERALLY LIGHT AND VARIABLE OVERNIGHT BEFORE TURNING MORE
SOUTHEASTERLY ON FRIDAY. SKIES WILL GENERALLY BE SCATTERED TO
BROKEN AT THE MID-LEVEL, WITH FEW AROUND THE 030-050 LEVEL
LIKELY WITH CONVECTION/SHOWERS. VISIBILITY IMPACTS ARE MOST
LIKELY IN THE EVENING/OVERNIGHT TIME FRAME AND AGAIN AROUND
DAYBREAK TIMEFRAME FRIDAY MORNING DUE TO POSSIBLE PATCHY FOG,
SIMILAR TO THIS MORNING, AS WELL AS WITH ANY PASSING
STORMS/HEAVY RAIN.
HIGHER CONFIDENCE OF TSRA FOR OUR WESTERN/SOUTHERN SITES THIS
EVENING BEFORE THIS LINE OF STORMS DECAYS. ADDITIONAL LINE OF
STORMS IS POSSIBLE AROUND DAYBREAK MOVING FROM SOUTHERN
MINNESOTA NORTHEAST TOWARD THE TWIN CITIES AND WESTERN
WISCONSIN. I HAVE ADDED PROB30S TO OUR W WI SITES FOR THIS
ROUND, BUT CONFIDENCE IS LOWER FOR MSP.
KMSP... CONFIDENCE IN THUNDER IS LOW AS THE STORMS ARE
WEAKENING AS THEY MOVE TOWARDS MSP. I KEPT THE TAF DRY, BUT
IT'S LOOKING INCREASINGLY LIKELY THAT WE'LL SEE SCATTERED SHOWERS
ARRIVE AT THE TERMINAL BY 05Z. THIS WILL BE AMD BY 03Z IF THE
LINE OF STORMS AND SHOWERS CAN HOLD TOGETHER. MINIMAL WINDS
THROUGH THE PERIOD, AOB 10 KNOTS AND VRB OR SOUTHERLY IN
DIRECTION. SCATTERED TO BROKEN SKIES THROUGH THE DAY, WITH
BRIEF DIPS TO LOW END VFR IF SHOWERS MOVE THROUGH TONIGHT.
GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO SHOW ANOTHER ROUND OF SHOWERS AND STORMS
AROUND DAYBREAK 11-14Z, BUT AGREEMENT BETWEEN MODELS ON WHEN
AND WHERE IS LOW. I HAVE OPTED TO LEAVE THAT OUT OF THE TAF
GIVEN THE HIGH UNCERTAINTY WITH THIS FIRST LINE OF
STORMS/SHOWERS.
/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/
SAT...CHC MVFR/TSRA. WINDS NE 5-10 KNOTS.
SUN...VFR. WINDS NE 5-10 KNOTS
MON...VFR. WINDS SE 5-10 KNOTS
MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MN...NONE.
WI...NONE.
DISCUSSION...STRUS
AVIATION...BPH
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