900
FXUS63 KMPX 011859
AFDMPX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
159 PM CDT WED JUL 1 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- TODAY, SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING, MAINLY ACROSS SOUTHERN MINNESOTA AND WEST CENTRAL
WISCONSIN. HAIL, WIND, AND A FEW TORNADOES ARE POSSIBLE, ALONG
WITH HEAVY RAIN AND LOCALIZED FLOODING.
- HOLIDAY WEEKEND, ADDITIONAL THUNDERSTORM CHANCES CONTINUE
THROUGHOUT THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND. THERE IS A RISK FOR SEVERE
WEATHER AND HEAVY RAIN WITH THESE STORMS, BUT TIMING AND
LOCATION ARE UNCERTAIN.
- WARM & MUGGY CONDITIONS CONTINUE BUT DANGEROUS HEAT INDICES
ARE UNLIKELY.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 158 PM CDT WED JUL 1 2026
TODAY AND TONIGHT...THE MAIN CONCERN IS FOR STORMS WITH SEVERE
WEATHER AND HEAVY RAIN. EARLY AFTERNOON SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWED A
FEW HIGH CLOUDS ALONG THE IA/WI BORDER, AND RADAR SHOWED SOME
PRECIPITATION RETURNS ALONG WITH A FEW LIGHTNING STRIKES. THIS AREA
HAD RECEIVED MORNING CONVECTION, AND THAT IS IMPORTANT SINCE
ADDITIONAL STORMS ARE EXPECTED THERE LATER TODAY.
FROM THE SEVERE WEATHER ASPECT, LCLS ARE VERY LOW, AND THE SURFACE
WINDS HAVE AN EASTERLY DIRECTION. THIS IS LEADING TO EFFECTIVE
HELICITY VALUES NEAR 200 M2/S2, BOTH OF WHICH SUPPORT A TORNADO
POTENTIAL LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING ALONG I-90 AND INTO
WEST CENTRAL WISCONSIN. AS WE GO FORWARD IN TIME, THE SURFACE
WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO VEER WITH TIME AND BECOME MORE SOUTHWEST.
THIS WOULD REDUCE THE TORNADIC THREAT, WHICH CAN BE VISUALIZED
IN THE EFFECTIVE SRH VALUES DECREASING TO AROUND 100 M2/S2 BY
00Z THIS EVENING. SO THE SURFACE WINDS WILL BE A KEY IN
DETERMINING THE TORNADO THREAT LATER TODAY.
ASIDE FROM TORNADOES, THERE WILL BE AMPLE CAPE AND DEEP LAYER SHEAR
TO SUPPORT ORGANIZED CONVECTION. HOWEVER THE MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES
ARE ONLY AROUND 7 C/KM, SO NOT ANTICIPATING EXTREMELY LARGE HAIL, OR
A SIGNIFICANT COLD POOL TO PRODUCE HIGH-END DAMAGING WINDS. INSTEAD
EXPECT A FEW SEVERE STORMS WITH TYPICAL LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING
WINDS.
THE MOIST MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES ARE INDICATIVE OF THE HIGH
PRECIPITABLE WATER, WITH VALUES NEAR 2 INCHES IN PLACE. ANY STORMS
THAT FORM WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCE HEAVY RAIN AND FLOODING. AREAS
THAT ARE MOST AT RISK ARE ALONG I-90, WHERE THEY ALREADY HAD STORMS
THIS MORNING, AND COULD SEE TRAINING STORMS LATER TODAY AS WELL.
THESE STORMS WILL EVENTUALLY EXIT THE REGION LATE THIS EVENING,
SETTING UP A MOSTLY DRY DAY FOR THURSDAY.
THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...ADDITIONAL ROUND OF STORMS EXPECTED
THROUGH THE WEEKEND AND INTO NEXT WEEK. THE PATTERN REMAINS FAIRLY
STEADY, MEANING ANY STORMS THAT DEVELOP COULD PRODUCE SEVERE WEATHER
AND HEAVY RAIN.
MOSTLY DRY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED ON THURSDAY, BUT LATE THURSDAY
NIGHT INTO FRIDAY MORNING IS A TIME FRAME TO WATCH FOR
THUNDERSTORMS. WE EXPECT A COMPLEX OF STORMS TO DEVELOP IN THE
DAKOTAS THURSDAY NIGHT, AND EITHER MOVE INTO MINNESOTA AND WISCONSIN
ON FRIDAY MORNING, OR DIVE SOUTH INTO IOWA. THIS STORM WILL HAVE
SUFFICIENT CAPE AND SHEAR TO PRODUCE SEVERE WEATHER. THE MAIN THREAT
IS DAMAGING WIND, WITH A SECONDARY THREAT TORNADOES AND HAIL.
LOOKING AHEAD, THERE IS NO STRONG SIGNAL FOR STORMS THE REST OF THE
WEEKEND, BUT THE GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THAT STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE. AS
MENTIONED EARLIER, SEVERE WEATHER AND HEAVY RAIN WILL ACCOMPANY
THESE THUNDERSTORM COMPLEXES. AS WE TRANSITION TO NEXT WEEK,
THE HEAVY RAIN AND FLOODING THREAT INCREASES. THE EC AND GFS
ENSEMBLES BOTH HAVE MULTIPLE MEMBERS WITH 4 TO 5 INCHES OF RAIN
BETWEEN NOW AND NEXT WEEK. THIS INDICATES THAT MULTIPLE ROUNDS
OF STORMS WILL LEAD TO HIGHER RAINFALL TOTALS SOMEWHERE ACROSS
THE FORECAST AREA. AND EACH ROUND WILL SATURATE SOILS, RESULTING
IN HIGHER RUNOFF POTENTIAL WITH THE NEXT ROUND. SO THE FLOODING
THREAT BEARS WATCHING OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS.
AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z FRIDAY/
ISSUED AT 1256 PM CDT WED JUL 1 2026
EXCEPT FOR AN ISOLATED POCKET OF MVFR CEILINGS WHICH MAY MOVE
ACROSS A TERMINAL BRIEFLY EARLY THIS AFTERNOON, VFR CONDITIONS
WILL PREVAIL AT ALL SITES INTO LATE THIS AFTERNOON. SCATTERED
TSRA STILL LOOK TO DEVELOP LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO THE EARLY
EVENING HOURS, WHICH MAY PRODUCE MVFR CONDITIONS MAINLY FOR
SOUTHERN-EASTERN MN INTO WESTERN WI. BEST CHANCES ARE MKT-
MSP-EAU, SO HAVE RUN WITH TEMPO GROUPS AT THOSE SITES, WITH
LESSER CHANCES AT RWF-RNH SO HAVE USED PROB30 MENTION AT THOSE
SITES. LOWER CLOUDS SCOUR OUT OVERNIGHT WITH HIGH CEILINGS
EXPECTED TO REMAIN IN PLACE OVERNIGHT THROUGH MOST OF THURSDAY.
CHANCES FOR ADDITIONAL ROUNDS OF FOR SHRA/TSRA INCREASE FOR
THURSDAY NIGHT, BUT THAT IS BEYOND THE TIMEFRAME OF THIS TAF SET
SO THE NEXT FEW ROUTINE TAFS WILL HAVE MENTION OF PRECIP FOR
THURSDAY NIGHT. BREEZY S TO SW WINDS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THIS
AFTERNOON, WITH WINDS THEN GOING LIGHT/VARIABLE OVERNIGHT
THROUGH THE FIRST HALF OF THURSDAY.
KMSP...NOT MUCH CHANGE FROM THE INHERITED 01/12Z TAF SET. DID UP
THE PRECIP MENTION FROM A PROB30 TO A TEMPO FOR THE 22Z-01Z
TIMEFRAME LATE THIS AFTERNOON. STILL SOME UNCERTAINTY IN THE
PLACEMENT OF STORMS, BUT EVEN WITHIN THE 5MI RADIUS AROUND THE
TERMINAL, CHANCES ARE FAIRLY HIGH THAT SCATTERED TSRA LATER
TODAY MAY IMPACT MSP EITHER DIRECTLY OVER THE TERMINAL OR FLIGHT
PATHS. GUSTY WINDS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON HOURS,
AND TSRA COULD PRODUCE SHARP WIND SHIFTS ALONG WITH ADDITIONAL
GUSTY WINDS. CONDITIONS IMPROVE THIS EVENING AS WINDS SETTLE
DOWN AND LOWER CLOUDS SCOUR OUT. NEXT CHANCE FOR PRECIPITATION
DOESN'T ARRIVE UNTIL THURSDAY NIGHT SO TRANQUIL CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED FOR THE OVERNIGHT HOURS THROUGH MOST OF THURSDAY.
/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/
FRI...SHRA LIKELY, CHC MVFR/TSRA. WINDS S 5-10KTS BECOMING E.
SAT...SHRA LIKELY, CHC MVFR/TSRA. WINDS SE 5-10KTS BECOMING NE.
SUN...VFR. WIND E 5 KTS.
MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MN...NONE.
WI...NONE.
DISCUSSION...JRB
AVIATION...JPC
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