926
FXUS63 KMPX 121102
AFDMPX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
602 AM CDT MON OCT 12 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- A COLD FRONT DRAPED ACROSS THE AREA WILL BRING COOLER
TEMPERATURES FOR WESTERN MN TODAY. HOWEVER, SOUTHEASTERN MN
AND WEST-CENTRAL WI WILL STILL SEE NEAR RECORD HIGHS.
- SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE OVER WESTERN
AND CENTRAL MN THIS AFTERNOON. SHOWERS LIKELY FOR PORTIONS OF
NORTHERN WI TONIGHT.
- ANOTHER CHANCE OF RAIN ARRIVES THURSDAY FOLLOWED BY A BRIEF
COOL DOWN TO END THE WEEK.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 207 AM CDT MON OCT 12 2026
WE HAD ANOTHER DAY OF RECORD BREAKING TEMPERATURES AS THIS EXTREMELY
ABNORMALLY WARM AIRMASS STICKS WITH US. MSP, STC, AND EAU ALL SET
DAILY HIGH TEMPERATURE RECORDS AND MSP'S 90 IS THE LATEST 90
RECORDED IN THE CALENDAR YEAR. THE STALLED COLD FRONT IS CURRENTLY
DRAPED FROM NEAR HINCKLEY SOUTH-SOUTHWEST ALONG THE NORTHWARD MOVING
MINNESOTA RIVER TO FAIRMONT. WEST OF THE FRONT, TEMPERATURES COOL
FROM THE LOWER 60S TO LOWER 50S IN WESTERN MN. SOME PATCHY FOG IS
BEING OBSERVED IN OUR FAR WESTERN MN COUNTIES WHERE TEMPERATURES
HAVE COOLED TO THE DEWPOINT. EAST OF THE FRONT, IT IS STUFFY WITH
STILL MID TO EVEN UPPER 70S OVER SOUTHEASTERN MN AND WI AT THIS
EARLY HOUR. THE FRONT WILL STAY IN PLACE FOR MOST OF TODAY, ALLOWING
TEMPERATURES GET VERY WARM TO ITS EAST. LOW TO MID 80S ARE FORECAST
FROM SOUTHERN MN INTO WESTERN WI. EAU'S HIGH OF 87 WOULD BREAK THE
DAILY RECORD SO ANOTHER RECORD BREAKING DAY OF HEAT IS LIKELY. HIGHS
COOL TO THE WEST WITH WESTERN MN FORECAST IN THE MID TO UPPER 60S.
AS WE NEAR MIDDAY, A FEW CAMS SHOW A BROKEN LINE OF CONVECTION
DEVELOPING IN WESTERN MN AND MOVING NORTHEAST AS SYNOPTIC LIFT
INCREASES OVER THE SURFACE FRONT. HAVE BUMPED UP POPS TO 40-50% FROM
WESTERN TO CENTRAL MN MONDAY AFTERNOON FOR SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
EVEN A THUNDERSTORM. AS SYNOPTIC LIFT INCREASES, A SURFACE LOW WILL
DEVELOP OVER SOUTHERN MN MONDAY AFTERNOON AND TRAVEL NORTHEAST. MORE
RAIN WILL DEVELOP WELL TO OUR NORTH INITIALLY, BUT ACTIVITY
WILL SPREAD SOUTH INTO OUR NORTHERN WI COUNTIES AS THE LOW EXITS
EAST MONDAY NIGHT. 0.1" TO PERHAPS 0.25" OF RAIN IS POSSIBLE
WITH THIS ACTIVITY.
THE COLD FRONT MOVES EAST MONDAY NIGHT COOLING US DOWN TO MORE
NORMAL TEMPERATURES FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR. WE WILL ALSO ENTER A
BRIEF DRY PERIOD THROUGH MID-WEEK. TUESDAY'S HIGHS ARE FORECAST TO
BE IN THE MID TO UPPER 50S IN WESTERN AND CENTRAL MN TO MID TO UPPER
60S FOR AREAS SOUTH AND EAST. BY WEDNESDAY, HIGHS WILL BE A BIT
COOLER WITH MID 50S TO MID 60S EXPECTED ACROSS THE CWA. MEANWHILE,
CENTRAL MN SHOULD SEE SOME UPPER 30S FOR LOWS RETURN BY WEDNESDAY
NIGHT. GUIDANCE SHOWS OUR NEXT CHANCE OF RAIN ARRIVING EARLY
THURSDAY AS FORECAST MODELS SHOW A CUTOFF LOW OVER THE ROCKIES
TRAVELING EAST INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS BY LATE THURSDAY. MEANWHILE,
AN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH WITHIN THE NORTHERN JETSTREAM IS FORECAST TO
DIG EAST-SOUTHEAST FROM WESTERN CANADA INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS.
GUIDANCE DOESN'T FAVOR THE PHASING OF THESE 2 FEATURES UNTIL OVER
THE GREAT LAKES REGION, BUT A SURFACE LOW SHOULD GET GOING OVER THE
MIDWEST THE SECOND HALF OF THURSDAY BEFORE TRAVELING EAST. MODEL
CONFIDENCE HAS INCREASED IN THIS SOLUTION SUCH THAT 50-70% POPS
STRETCH FROM SOUTHERN MN INTO WI DURING THURSDAY. WE'LL HAVE TO SEE
HOW FAR NORTH PRECIPITATION REACHES, THOUGH CONFIDENCE IN THE
NORTHERN PORTIONS OF OUR CWA SEEING MEANINGFUL RAIN HAS TRENDED
DOWNWARD. THE NORTHERN STREAM TROUGH IS FORECAST TO AMPLIFY AS IT
MOVES OVER THE GREAT LAKES, CAUSING ENHANCED NORTHERLY FLOW AND CAA
IN ITS WAKE OVER THE UPPER MIDWEST. A MAJORITY OF OUR CWA COULD SEE
ITS FIRST SUB-FREEZING LOWS SATURDAY MORNING AS A PORTION OF AN
ARCTIC AIRMASS ADVECTS INTO THE REGION. HOWEVER, THIS "COLD SNAP"
WILL BE SHORT-LIVED AS LONG-RANGE GUIDANCE SHOWS AMPLIFIED UPPER-
LEVEL RIDGING PROGRESSING EAST OF THE ROCKIES TO START NEXT WEEKEND.
THIS FEATURE WOULD BRING ANOTHER ROUND OF LIKELY DRY WEATHER AND
ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES NEXT WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.
AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY/
ISSUED AT 602 AM CDT MON OCT 12 2026
SOME LOW CEILINGS AND FOG EARLY THIS MORNING ACROSS WESTERN
MINNESOTA. THIS FOG SHOULD CLEAR AND CEILINGS WILL RISE LATER
THIS MORNING. VFR WILL HOLD THIS MORNING FOR TERMINALS TO THE
EAST. THIS AFTERNOON A SYSTEM WILL MAINLY IMPACT CENTRAL AND
NORTHERN MINNESOTA WITH RAIN SHOWERS OR POSSIBLE ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS. FARTHER SOUTH WILL SEE CEILINGS FALL INTO MVFR OR IFR
FOR THE LATER PART OF THIS PERIOD. MOSTLY MVFR, BUT IFR IS MORE
LIKELY ACROSS WESTERN WISCONSIN. WINDS GENERALLY LIGHT THIS
MORNING FROM THE NORTH BEHIND THE FRONT AND SOUTH AHEAD OF IT.
AS IT PASSES TODAY A NORTHERLY WINDS WILL BE PRESENT ACROSS ALL
TERMINALS.
KMSP... MAIN IMPACT WILL BE SHIFTING WINDS AND SOME MVFR
CEILINGS AFTER FRONTAL PASSAGE. RAIN CHANCES THIS AFTERNOON
ASSOCIATED WITH THIS FRONT, BUT CONFIDENCE WAS NOT HIGH ENOUGH
TO PUT IN THE TAF NOW. THIS RAIN LOOKS MORE LIKELY NORTH OF THE
TERMINAL AREA.
/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/
TUE PM...VFR. WIND NW 5-10 KTS.
WED...VFR. WIND N 5-10 KTS.
THU...CHC MVFR/-SHRA LATE. WIND SE 5-10 KTS BCMG NW 10-20 KTS.
MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MN...NONE.
WI...NONE.
DISCUSSION...CTG
AVIATION...NDC
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