692
FXUS63 KMPX 060832
AFDMPX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
232 AM CST SAT DEC 6 2025
KEY MESSAGES
- SNOW EXPECTED TO ARRIVE AROUND MIDDAY TODAY IN WESTERN MN,
SPREADING SOUTHEAST INTO EARLY SUNDAY MORNING. SEVERAL INCHES
OF SNOW ACCUMULATION ARE POSSIBLE IN SOUTHERN MN WITH LOWER
AMOUNTS TO THE NORTH.
- COLD AND DRY TO END THE WEEKEND WITH HIGHS ONLY IN THE SINGLE
DIGITS IN MN ON SUNDAY.
- A COUPLE OF CHANCES OF SNOW THE FIRST HALF OF NEXT WEEK, WITH
THE MOST SIGNIFICANT CHANCE BEING TUESDAY INTO TUESDAY NIGHT.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 232 AM CST SAT DEC 6 2025
CLOUDY SKIES HAVE LIMITED HOW MUCH WE'VE COOLED OFF OVERNIGHT WITH
TEMPERATURES STILL IN THE UPPER TEENS TO LOWER 20S EARLY THIS
MORNING. TEMPERATURES WON'T WARM MUCH TODAY AS OVERCAST SKIES WILL
REMAIN. THE CLIPPER SYSTEM FOR SATURDAY AFTERNOON INTO SATURDAY
NIGHT IS THE MAIN CONCERN IN THE SHORT-TERM. WITH THE LATEST
GUIDANCE TRACKING THE 700 HPA LOW FROM YNK/FSD TO DSM, HAVE LEANED
HEAVILY TO A MORE SOUTHERN SOLUTION WITH THE PREVAILING SWATH OF
SNOW. THE ECMWF AND ECMWF-AIFS ARE BOTH IN THIS CAMP AND THE ECMWF-
AIFS HAS DONE REMARKABLY WELL WITH OTHER SNOWFALL EVENTS SO FAR THIS
WINTER. OUR LATEST FORECAST GIVES 4-6" ACROSS EXTREME SOUTHERN MN, 1-
2" ON A LINE FROM CNB-RWF-MKT-FBL, AND THEN AN INCH OR LESS TO THE
NORTH (INCLUDES THE TWIN CITIES). HAVE OPTED TO KEEP HEADLINES THE
SAME, THOUGH, THE NORTHERN-MOST TIER OF COUNTIES IN THE WINTER
WEATHER ADVISORY ARE FLIRTING OF NOT BEING WARRANTED. SNOWFALL RATES
COULD REACH 1-1.5" PER HOUR, PARTICULARLY ALONG I-90 AND SOUTH, BUT
LUCKILY THIS SYSTEM WILL BE MOVING FROM WEST TO EAST PRETTY QUICKLY
SUCH THAT THESE HIGHER RATES WILL ONLY LAST AN HOUR OR TWO. SNOW
SHOULD END PRETTY QUICKLY FROM WEST TO EAST EARLY SUNDAY MORNING AS
THE CLIPPER MOVES INTO THE MIDWEST.
COLD AIR WILL IMMEDIATELY FOLLOW THE CLIPPER WITH SATURDAY NIGHT'S
LOWS DROPPING TO -10 F IN WESTERN MN TO NEAR 0 IN WEST-CENTRAL WI.
NORTHERLY WINDS WILL BE JUST ENOUGH THAT WESTERN MN SHOULD SEE WIND
CHILLS NEAR -20 F BY SUNRISE SUNDAY. SUNDAY WILL BE DRY AS SURFACE
HIGH PRESSURE SLIDES OVERHEAD BUT TEMPERATURES WILL STRUGGLE TO WARM
WITH HIGHS ONLY REACHING THE SINGLE DIGITS IN MN. LOW TO MID TEENS
ARE FORECAST FOR OUR WI COUNTIES. ANOTHER COLD NIGHT IS EXPECTED
SUNDAY NIGHT WITH LOWS WITHIN 5 DEGREES OF 0. LOW-LEVEL WAA WILL
BEGIN MONDAY AS THE NEXT CLIPPER IN THE WAVE TRAIN APPROACHES.
TEMPERATURES WILL MODERATE MONDAY WITH HIGHS IN THE 20S TO EVEN
LOWER 30S POSSIBLE IN WESTERN MN. GUIDANCE FAVORS THE TRACK OF THE
AFOREMENTIONED CLIPPER PASSING FROM NORTHERN MN INTO WI. THIS TRACK
WOULD KEEP MOST OF THE SNOW TO OUR NORTH, BUT OUR NORTHERN AND
NORTHEASTERN COUNTIES COULD SEE A DUSTING TO PERHAPS AN INCH OF SNOW
BY TUESDAY MORNING.
WHILE MONDAY'S CLIPPER DOESN'T APPEAR TO BE TOO SIGNIFICANT, THE
CLIPPER FORECAST TUESDAY INTO TUESDAY NIGHT CONTINUES TO BE THE ONE
TO MONITOR IN THE LONG-RANGE. DETERMINISTIC GUIDANCE SHOWS A COMPACT
SHORTWAVE WITH A STRONG MID-LEVEL VORTICITY MAXIMUM AND FOLLOWING
UPPER-LEVEL JETSTREAK. A DEEPENING SURFACE LOW SHOULD EVOLVE AHEAD
OF THESE FEATURES, TRACKING SOUTHEAST FROM ND INTO MN AND THEN WI.
EXACTLY WHERE REMAINS IN QUESTION, BUT THE EPS HAS TRENDED WITH A
DEEPER TROUGH AND A MORE SOUTHERN LOW TRACK OVER THE LAST SEVERAL
RUNS. I-94 AND AREAS NORTH WOULD BE FAVORED FOR ACCUMULATING SNOW
WITH THIS SOLUTION. THE EPS-AIFS IS EVEN SLIGHTLY FARTHER SOUTH
COMPARED TO THE EPS DRIVING THE SWATH OF SNOW THROUGH THE HEART OF
OUR CWA. MEANWHILE, THE GEFS IS MUCH FARTHER NORTH WITH THE SURFACE
LOW TRACK BUT HAS BEEN COMING AROUND TO A DEEPER UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH
IN RECENT RUNS. WE WILL CONTINUE TO WATCH THIS SYSTEM AS WE COULD
EITHER GET A QUICK THUMP OF ACCUMULATING (TO POTENTIALLY
SIGNIFICANT) SNOW. OR, THE SURFACE LOW COULD BE FAR ENOUGH NORTH
(LIKE THE GEFS SOLUTION) TO WHERE WE ARE STUCK IN MILD, ABOVE
FREEZING TEMPERATURES. FOLLOWING THIS SYSTEM, GUIDANCE FAVORS
ANOTHER BLAST OF COLD AIR FOR THE LATTER HALF OF NEXT WEEK WITH
STRONG SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE SLIDING SOUTHEAST FROM THE WESTERN
CANADIAN PRAIRIES. A BREAK FROM OUR MORE ACTIVE PATTERN LOOKS LIKE A
GOOD POSSIBILITY WEDNESDAY ONWARD.
AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY/
ISSUED AT 1021 PM CST FRI DEC 5 2025
MAIN FORECAST CHANGE THIS PERIOD HAS BEEN A GENERAL SOUTHWARD
SHIFT WITH THE SNOW TOMORROW. THIS MAINLY IMPACTS MSP/RNH/EAU,
WHERE ACCUMULATING SNOW MAY END UP SOUTH OF THESE TERMINALS.
STILL EXPECT AT LEAST A FEW HOURS OF SNOW AT THESE TERMINALS
TOMORROW EVENING, ALTHOUGH ACCUMULATIONS WILL LIKELY BE ON THE
ORDER OF AN INCH OR LESS & VISIBILITY IMPACTS POTENTIALLY LESS
SEVERE. NO CHANGES IN THE FORECAST AT RWF & MKT, WHERE 3-6" OF
SNOW & IFR VISIBILITY ARE STILL EXPECTED TOMORROW AFTERNOON &
EVENING.
CEILINGS APPEAR LESS LIKELY TO SCATTER OUT OVERNIGHT, ALTHOUGH A
FEW HOURS OF IMPROVEMENT TO VFR STILL LOOKS POSSIBLE DURING THE
EARLY MORNING HOURS. CEILINGS ARE EXPECTED TO LIFT TO VFR BY
LATE MORNING, & STAY THERE AT TERMINALS THAT ARE NORTH OF THE
SNOW. CEILINGS LIKELY DIP BACK TO MVFR LEVELS ONCE THE SNOW
BEGINS ACROSS SOUTHERN MINNESOTA & WESTERN WISCONSIN.
NORTHWEST WINDS DROP BELOW 5 KTS OVERNIGHT & GRADUALLY BECOME
NORTHEASTERLY INTO TOMORROW MORNING. SPEEDS INCREASE TO AROUND
10 KTS BY TOMORROW AFTERNOON.
KMSP...CONFIDENCE HAS DECREASED IN ACCUMULATING SNOWFALL
TOMORROW EVENING, OWING TO A GENERAL SOUTHWARD SHIFT IN THE
GUIDANCE THIS EVENING. IT IS STILL MORE LIKELY THAN NOT THAT WE
SEE A FEW HOURS OF LIGHT SNOWFALL, & POSSIBLE IFR VISIBILITY,
BUT ACCUMULATIONS WILL LIKELY BE ON THE ORDER OF AN INCH OR
LESS.
/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/
SUN...LIKELY VFR. WIND N 5-10 KTS.
MON...MVFR CIGS. CHC -SN. WIND SW 10-15 KTS.
TUE...VFR EARLY, MVFR/IFR LATE WITH -SN. WIND S 10-15 KTS.
MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MN...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM NOON TODAY TO MIDNIGHT CST
TONIGHT FOR BLUE EARTH-BROWN-FARIBAULT-FREEBORN-MARTIN-
NICOLLET-REDWOOD-STEELE-WASECA-WATONWAN-YELLOW MEDICINE.
WI...NONE.
DISCUSSION...CTG
AVIATION...ETA
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