496
FXUS63 KMPX 252012
AFDMPX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
312 PM CDT SAT JUL 25 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- THE PROLONGED HEAT WAVE CONTINUES THIS WEEKEND. EXTREME HEAT
WARNINGS AND HEAT ADVISORIES HAVE BEEN POSTED THROUGH SUNDAY
EVENING. THE HOTTEST DAY WILL BE SUNDAY WHEN HEAT INDICES WILL
REACH 100 TO 110.
- LESS HUMID AIR ARRIVES MONDAY, BUT HIGHS WILL REMAIN IN THE
MID 80S TO LOW 90S NEXT WEEK.
- LOW CONFIDENCE PERSISTS ON CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT THROUGH
SUNDAY NIGHT DUE TO CAPPING AND SCATTERED/DISORGANIZED NATURE
OF STORMS.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 252 PM CDT SAT JUL 25 2026
EXTREME HEAT...THE MAIN AXIS OF THE HEAT RIDGE WILL REMAIN OVER
THE ROCKIES THROUGH THE WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. HOWEVER,
SURFACE FRONTS WILL MAINTAIN THE EXTENSIVE WARM SECTOR ACROSS
THE WFO MPX COVERAGE AREA, INCLUDING ELEVATED LOW-MID LEVEL
MOISTURE ADVECTION, THROUGH THE WEEKEND. THIS MEANS NOT JUST THE
DAYTIME HOURS WITH HIGHS IN THE LOW-MID 90S TODAY AND INTO THE
MID-UPPER 90S SUNDAY BUT ALSO OVERNIGHT LOWS MAINLY IN THE LOW-
MID 70S TONIGHT AND SUNDAY NIGHT. WITH DEWPOINTS INTO THE UPPER
60S TO MID 70S (EVEN UPPER 70S TOMORROW), THIS WILL PROLONG
DANGEROUS HEAT CONDITIONS THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT, HENCE THE
EXPANSION OF THE EXTREME HEAT WARNING FROM MUCH OF OUR MN AREA
TO THE REMAINDER OF OUR AREA TONIGHT INTO TOMORROW. SUNDAY WILL
BE BY FAR THE HOTTEST DAY WITH HI'S FOR NEARLY OUR ENTIRE AREA
REACHING 105-110 AND WBGT'S CLIMBING INTO THE UPPER 80S FOR THE
VAST MAJORITY OF OUR AREA. THE HEAT RIDGE WILL RETREAT WESTWARD
FOR EARLY NEXT WEEK WHILE A WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY DROPS SOUTH,
WHICH WILL ALLOW DEWPOINTS TO DROP OFF APPRECIABLY, BACK TO THE
60S TO NEAR 70 FOR THE REST OF THE WEEK WHILE GRADUALLY FALL
BACK TO THE UPPER 80S TO LOWER 90S. SO, NOT TO SAY IT WON'T AT
ALL BE WARM/HUMID DEPENDING ON LOCATION WITHIN OUR 51 COUNTIES,
BUT IT WILL NOT BE NEARLY AS HOT/MUGGY AS TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY.
THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL...QUITE THE TRICKY AND LOW CONFIDENCE
FORECAST WHEN IT COMES TO THE WHERE/WHEN OF ANY CONVECTION WHICH
MAY DEVELOP OVER THE WFO MPX COVERAGE AREA. QUIET THUS FAR
TODAY, NOT ONLY OVER OUR AREA BUT ALSO UPSTREAM OVER THE EASTERN
DAKOTAS. STARTING TO SEE SOME DEVELOPMENT OVER WESTERN SD IN
RESPONSE TO STRONG SURFACE HEATING AND MODEST TO STEEP LAPSE
RATES AND INHERENT INSTABILITY. 12Z RAOBS AND MODEL SOUNDINGS
STILL SHOW PLENTY OF MID-LEVEL CAPPING WITH WARM H85-H7
TEMPERATURES THAT SEEM TO BE DIMINISHED IN POCKETS, SIMILAR TO
WHERE THERE ARE SPOTS OF STRONGER SURFACE HEATING THAN OTHERS.
THE IDEA IS THAT STORMS WILL BLOSSOM OVER EASTERN SD AND DRIFT
ESE INTO SOUTHWESTERN MN LATER THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH THIS
EVENING. HOWEVER, ONLY A FEW CAMS INDICATE SUCH IDEA, AND EVEN
FEWER RUN-TO-RUN TODAY. SOME CAMS INDICATE NO CONVECTION AT ALL.
SO THIS IS A HIGHLY CONDITIONAL SETUP FOR TODAY DUE TO THE
STRONG LOW-MID LEVEL CAPPING (INDICATIVE PER THE CONTINUAL LOW
LEVEL STRATUS TODAY) AND THE PATCHWORK OF INTEGRATING HIGHER
INSTABILITY, PLUS WITH FAIRLY UNIMPRESSIVE DYNAMICS ALOFT.
ONCE PAST TONIGHT'S POTENTIAL CONVECTION (AND THERE IS EVEN THE
IDEA AMONG A FEW CAMS OF A SUNRISE-ISH COMPLEX OVER EASTERN MN
INTO WESTERN WI, SO STILL PLENTY OF UNCERTAINTY), THEN THERE
LOOKS TO BE A BETTER ORGANIZATION SUNDAY AFTERNOON-EVENING
DESPITE CONTINUED WIDE-RANGING MODEL SOLUTIONS. MORE NW FLOW
ALOFT MAY ALLOW A FEW DISTURBANCES TO RUSH THROUGH THE AREA,
ESPECIALLY WITHIN THE HIGHER TEMP/DEWPOINT REGIME LEADING TO
STEEP LAPSE RATES AND POORER CAPPING WITH A WEAK FRONTAL
BOUNDARY DROPPING SOUTH. STILL RATHER DISORGANIZED IN NATURE,
THERE MAY BE A FEW CLUSTERS OF STORMS LATE DAY INTO THE EVENING
WITH THE MAIN "TARGET" AREA AS FAR WESTERN INTO FAR SOUTHERN MN.
MONDAY ONWARD...A MORE TRANQUIL PATTERN LOOKS TO SETTLE IN
STARTING ON MONDAY WITH DRIER AIR AND A SLOW DROP OF
TEMPERATURES AS THE WEEK PROGRESSES. OVERALL, HIGHS WILL RETURN
TO THE MID 80S TO LOWER 90S AS A GENERAL RANGE THROUGHOUT THE
WEEK WHILE DEWPOINTS FALL BACK TO THE 60S TO NEAR 70 DURING THE
DAYTIME HOURS. IT IS POSSIBLE THAT THE TC METRO MAY NEED A HEAT
ADVISORY ON MONDAY BUT OTHERWISE THE FORECAST DOES NOT SEEM TO
SUPPORT ANY ADDITIONAL HEAT HEADLINES BEYOND THE WEEKEND. MORE
PRONOUNCED NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL PREVAIL THROUGHOUT THE WEEK
WITH THE OCCASIONAL DISTURBANCE DRIFTING THROUGH THE UPPER
MIDWEST. NO APPRECIABLE SURFACE BOUNDARIES ARE EXPECTED FOR OUR
REGION, WHICH WILL LIMIT ANY CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION DUE TO
THE LACK OF FORCING AND LACK OF LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE FEATURES.
THE BEST CHANCE AFTER THIS WEEKEND LOOKS TO COME LATE THURSDAY
THROUGH EARLY FRIDAY, MAINLY OWING TO A FAIRLY WELL-DEFINED
SHORTWAVE TROUGH ALOFT EXPECTED TO MOVE THROUGH THE REGION.
NOTHING IMPRESSIVE NOR ANY SURFACE FEATURES, BUT A SWATH OF
DEEPER MOISTURE ACCOMPANYING THE TROUGH LOOKS TO PRODUCE
SCATTERED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS FOR LATE THU INTO FRI.
AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z MONDAY/
ISSUED AT 252 PM CDT SAT JUL 25 2026
LOW STRATUS HAS HELD STRONG THIS MORNING OVER MUCH OF EASTERN MN
THROUGH WESTERN WI, OWING TO THE HIGH AMOUNTS OF LOW-TO-MID
LEVEL MOISTURE ADVECTED INTO THE REGION AND LIMITED AMOUNTS OF
MIXING TO BLEND IT OUT. HAVE BEEN ADJUSTING THE TAFS TO DELAY
THE CLEARING, INCLUDING ON THE 25/18Z SET, AND MAY NEED TO
CONTINUE TO DO SO DEPENDING ON SATELLITE TRENDS. ONCE THIS LOW
STRATUS DOES CLEAR OUT AND ALLOW CONDITIONS TO RETURN TO VFR,
SUCH CONDITIONS ARE THEN EXPECTED TO PREVAIL THROUGH THE REST OF
THE TAF PERIOD IN MIDDAY TOMORROW. THERE IS A LOW CHANCE OF
PRE-DAWN GROUND FOG AT THE WI SITES BUT CONFIDENCE NOT HIGH
ENOUGH TO INCLUDE AT THIS POINT. SMALL CHANCE FOR SHRA/TSRA IN
SOUTHWESTERN MN THIS EVENING BUT TOO MUCH UNCERTAINTY TO INCLUDE
ANYTHING AT THIS POINT, SO HAVE MAINTAINED DRY TAFS.
KMSP...TIMING OF THE DISSIPATION OF THE LOW STRATUS IS THE ONLY
ISSUE. THINKING 20Z AT THIS POINT BUT WILL SEE IF ANY
ADJUSTMENTS NEED TO BE MADE TO BRING CONDITIONS BACK TO VFR THIS
AFTERNOON. CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION AT MSP TOO LOW TO INCLUDE
AT THIS TIME, BUT MAIN CHANCES WOULD BE LATE SUNDAY AFTERNOON
THRU SUNDAY EVENING, SO THE NEXT SETS OF TAFS MAY START TO
ADVERTISE PRECIP CHANCES/TIMING.
/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/
MON...VFR. W 5-10 KTS BECOMING NW AT 10-15G25 KTS.
TUE...VFR. WIND N 5-10 KTS.
WED...VFR. WIND SE 5-10 KTS.
MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MN...HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 11 AM CDT SUNDAY FOR BENTON-CHISAGO-
DOUGLAS-GOODHUE-ISANTI-KANABEC-MILLE LACS-MORRISON-
SHERBURNE-STEARNS-TODD.
EXTREME HEAT WARNING FROM 11 AM TO 9 PM CDT SUNDAY FOR BENTON-
CHISAGO-DOUGLAS-GOODHUE-ISANTI-KANABEC-MILLE LACS-
MORRISON-SHERBURNE-STEARNS-TODD.
EXTREME HEAT WARNING UNTIL 9 PM CDT SUNDAY FOR ANOKA-BLUE
EARTH-BROWN-CARVER-CHIPPEWA-DAKOTA-FARIBAULT-FREEBORN-
HENNEPIN-KANDIYOHI-LAC QUI PARLE-LE SUEUR-MARTIN-MCLEOD-
MEEKER-NICOLLET-POPE-RAMSEY-REDWOOD-RENVILLE-RICE-SCOTT-
SIBLEY-STEELE-STEVENS-SWIFT-WASECA-WASHINGTON-WATONWAN-
WRIGHT-YELLOW MEDICINE.
WI...HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 11 AM CDT SUNDAY FOR PIERCE-POLK-ST. CROIX.
EXTREME HEAT WARNING FROM 11 AM TO 9 PM CDT SUNDAY FOR BARRON-
CHIPPEWA-DUNN-EAU CLAIRE-PEPIN-PIERCE-POLK-RUSK-ST. CROIX.
DISCUSSION...JPC
AVIATION...JPC
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