315
FXUS63 KMPX 021750
AFDMPX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
1150 AM CST MON MAR 2 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- GRADUAL WARMING TREND EXPECTED WITH HIGHS IN THE 40S AND 50S
TO NEAR 60 POSSIBLE.
- LIGHT PRECIP IS POSSIBLE LATE TONIGHT INTO TUESDAY FOR
SOUTHERN MINNESOTA WITH A SYSTEM PASSING TO OUR SOUTH. BETTER
CHANCE FOR WIDESPREAD PRECIP ARRIVES BY THE END OF THE WEEK.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 243 AM CST MON MAR 2 2026
TEMPERATURES HAVE INCREASED A FEW DEGREES SINCE MIDNIGHT ACROSS
SOUTHERN MINNESOTA AS WARM AIR ADVECTION RAMPS UP. WINDS WILL
CONTINUE TO INCREASE OUT OF THE SOUTH THROUGH LATE MORNING, WITH
MOISTURE AND CLOUDS STREAMING IN ACROSS THE REGION. HIGHS IN THE 40S
SHOULD TAKE A BITE OUT OF THE SNOWPACK ACROSS THE MINNESOTA RIVER
VALLEY THROUGH SOUTHEASTERN MINNESOTA. THE WEAK DISTURBANCE
RESPONSIBLE FOR OUR INCREASING CLOUDS TODAY ACROSS THE PLAINS
MAY BRUSH FAR SOUTHERN MINNESOTA LATE TONIGHT INTO EARLY
TOMORROW MORNING. QPF AMOUNTS ARE VERY LIGHT, BUT THERE'S A
CHANCE FOR SOME FREEZING DRIZZLE AS TEMPERATURES HOVER NEAR 32
DEGREES. ANY ICE ACCUMULATION WILL BE LIMITED TO A LIGHT GLAZE.
THE MAJORITY OF THE PRECIP IS EXPECTED DURING THE EARLY MORNING
HOURS, SO THE THREAT FOR FREEZING DRIZZLE/ICE TO IMPACT THE
MORNING COMMUTE WILL NEED TO BE MONITORED. ADDITIONALLY, THIS IS
BAD NEWS FOR THOSE HOPING TO SEE THE LUNAR ECLIPSE TUESDAY
MORNING, AS OVERCAST SKIES HANG AROUND AREA WIDE THROUGH THE
MORNING. SOME SUN RETURNS BY THE AFTERNOON WITH HIGHS IN THE
UPPER 40S. WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY WILL SEE TEMPERATURES BREAK
INTO THE 50S WITH A RUN AT 60 FOR FAR SOUTHWEST MINNESOTA.
A NOTABLE PATTERN CHANGE ARRIVES BY THE END OF THE WEEK, WITH A
CUTOFF LOW DIGGING IN ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST. A SERIES OF
DISTURBANCES ASSOCIATED WITH THIS FEATURE WILL MOVE ACROSS THE
CENTRAL CONUS FROM FRIDAY THROUGH THE WEEKEND. P-TYPE SHOULDN'T
BE MUCH OF A CONCERN FOR US FRIDAY WITH TEMPERATURES REMAINING
IN THE 40S AND 50S, BUT IT WILL MAKE FOR A SOGGY START TO THE
FIRST WEEKEND OF METEOROLOGICAL SPRING. DEPENDING ON HOW LONG
PRECIP LINGERS INTO THE OVERNIGHT AND EARLY MORNING HOURS OF
SATURDAY, A SHORT WINDOW OF RAIN/SNOW MIX IS POSSIBLE. THE
SECOND HALF OF THE WEEKEND WILL BE DRIER AND WARM WITH HIGHS IN
THE LOW 60S. THIS DRY PERIOD LOOKS TO BE SHORT LIVED WITH MODELS
STILL KEYING IN ON THE POTENTIAL FOR A STRONG SYSTEM EARLY NEXT
WEEK AND AN ACTIVE MIDDLE OF MARCH.
AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY/
ISSUED AT 1150 AM CST MON MAR 2 2026
VFR BECOMING MVFR THIS AFTERNOON FOR ALL SITES. CURRENTLY
A BAND OF LOW MVFR STRATUS WILL CONTINUE TO MAKE ITS WAY
NORTHEASTWARD OVER THE COURSE OF THE NEXT FEW HOURS. A WEAK
DISTURBANCE MOVES THROUGH ACROSS THE MN/IA BORDER TONIGHT, THUS
BRINGING A CHANCE OF -FZDZ ARRIVING AS EARLY AS 4Z AND LASTING A FEW
HOURS FOR MKT AND RWF. THERE IS A SLIGHT POTENTIAL FOR -DZ AT RNH,
EAU, MSP, AND STC, HOWEVER WAS NOT CONFIDENT ON THE EXTENT OF
COVERAGE OUTSIDE OF SOUTHERN MN AT THIS TIME. MVFR CIGS EXPECTED TO
PREVAIL THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST PERIOD. SOUTHERLY
WINDS AROUND 10KTS THIS AFTERNOON WILL WEAKEN TO NEAR 5KTS THIS
EVENING THEN BECOMING SW'LY TOMORROW MORNING.
KMSP...MVFR STRATUS EXPECTED TO REACH MSP ~20Z. RA POTENTIAL REMAINS
WELL SOUTH OF MSP, ALTHOUGH WILL NEED TO MONITOR THE NORTHERN EXTENT
OF -DZ THAT COULD REACH THE FIELD AFTER 09Z. CHANCES WERE TOO LOW TO
INCLUDE ANY PROB30 MENTIONS IN THE TAF BUT IF FORECAST SOUNDING
TRENDS CONTINUE TO ADVERTISE SURFACE SATURATION, DZ WILL NEED
TO BE INTRODUCED IN THE NEXT ROUTINE ISSUANCE.
/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/
TUE...MVFR. WIND S BCMG SW 5 KTS.
WED...VFR. WIND S 5-10 KTS.
THU...VFR. WIND SE 5-10 KTS.
MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MN...NONE.
WI...NONE.
DISCUSSION...DYE
AVIATION...DUNLEAVY
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