417
FXUS63 KMPX 190757
AFDMPX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
257 AM CDT FRI JUN 19 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON. THERE IS
A LEVEL 1 OUT OF 5 RISK FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS CAPABLE OF
MARGINALLY SEVERE HAIL AND GUSTY WINDS.
- TEMPERATURES REMAINING COOLER THAN NORMAL, BUT WARMING UP BACK
TO NEAR NORMAL (HIGHS AROUND 80) LATE NEXT WEEK.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 257 AM CDT FRI JUN 19 2026
A POTENT SHORTWAVE TROUGH OVER NORTHEASTERN MT AND NORTHWESTERN
ND WILL ADVANCE SOUTHEAST TODAY. A WEAKER SHORTWAVE OVER THE
DAKOTAS WILL PRECEDE IT THIS MORNING. CLOUDS ARE BEGINNING TO
INCREASE ACROSS WESTERN MN NOW, WITH A FEW STATIONS REPORTING
LIGHT RAIN IN SOUTHEASTERN ND. THESE SHOWERS WILL WORK INTO
WESTERN MN DURING THE EARLY AND MID MORNING HOURS, THEN LARGELY
DISSIPATE BEFORE REACHING WI. THE MAIN SHORTWAVE WILL REACH MN
DURING THE MID AFTERNOON AND WI BY EARLY EVENING. COLD
TEMPERATURES ALOFT FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR WILL ACCOMPANY THE
TROUGH. WHILE DEW POINTS WILL BE FAIRLY DRY BY JUNE STANDARDS,
THE COLD AIR ALOFT WITH THE TROUGH AXIS AND AN AREA OF MID
LEVEL LAPSE RATES OF 7-7.5 C/KM WILL COMPENSATE AND PRODUCE
SBCAPE OF 500-1000 J/KG DURING PEAK HEATING. SCATTERED
THUNDERSTORMS WILL RESULT WITH COVERAGE GREATEST NEAR THE MID
LEVEL VORT MAX ACROSS CENTRAL MN AND NORTHERN/WESTERN WI. SHEAR
WILL BE GREATEST SOUTH OF THE VORT MAX WHERE 500 MB WINDS OF 60
KTS ARE EXPECTED. THERE IS SOME OVERLAP BETWEEN THE GREATER
INSTABILITY NORTH AND SUPPORTIVE SHEAR SOUTH TO BRING A LOW
CHANCE FOR SEVERE STORMS CAPABLE OF MARGINALLY SEVERE HAIL AND
GUSTY WINDS ACROSS CENTRAL/EASTERN MN AND WI. THE SHORTWAVE WILL
PROGRESS EAST OF THE AREA BY MID EVENING AND THUNDERSTORM
ACTIVITY WILL END WHILE SKIES CLEAR FOR THE REST OF THE NIGHT.
THE NEXT SYSTEM TO WATCH WILL EMERGE OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS
SATURDAY. A WARM FRONT AND RICH MOISTURE WILL BE IN PLACE ACROSS
NE/KS/NORTHERN MO WHICH WILL SPARK HEAVY RAIN PRODUCING CLUSTERS
OF THUNDERSTORMS. MUCH OF THIS ACTIVITY WILL REMAIN WELL TO THE
SOUTH, AND MAY TREND FARTHER SOUTH WITH TIME AS IS USUALLY THE
CASE WITH SETUPS SUCH AS THIS. FOR NOW CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS EXTEND NORTH INTO SOUTHERN MN, BUT WOULDN'T BE
SURPRISED IF THESE ARE REDUCED GOING FORWARD.
A SYSTEM TRAVERSING EAST ALONG THE U.S./CANADIAN BORDER MONDAY
WILL BRING SOME INCREASING MOISTURE NORTHWARD BY TUESDAY. A COLD
FRONT WILL PAS THROUGH DURING THE AFTERNOON LIKELY BRINGING
ANOTHER ROUND OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.
BROAD TROUGHING WILL CONTINUE FOR THE ENTIRE FORECAST PERIOD
KEEPING TEMPERATURES BELOW NORMAL. BY LATE NEXT WEEK OR THE
FOLLOWING WEEKEND THERE ARE SIGNS OF RIDGING TRYING TO BUILD
BACK TO THE UPPER MIDWEST WITH A POTENTIALLY MORE ACTIVE PATTERN
DEVELOPING, ALONG WITH TEMPERATURES RETURNING CLOSER TO NORMAL.
AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SATURDAY/
ISSUED AT 1253 AM CDT FRI JUN 19 2026
INCREASING MID LEVEL CLOUDS THIS MORNING WITH SHOWERS EXPECTED
TO ADVANCE INTO WESTERN MN FOR THE EARLY AND MID MORNING HOURS.
THOSE SHOWERS WILL DIMINISH WITH EASTWARD EXTENT, THEN SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL REDEVELOP IN THE AFTERNOON,
PRIMARILY ACROSS CENTRAL MN AND WESTERN WI. ACTIVITY WILL PUSH
EAST DURING THE EARLY EVENING. LIGHT WINDS OVERNIGHT, BECOMING
WEST AND GUSTING TO 20-25 KTS ACROSS SOUTHERN AND WESTERN MN
LATE MORNING AND AFTERNOON.
KMSP...SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND
COVERAGE SHOULD BE SUCH THAT IT APPEARS LIKELY MSP WILL BE
IMPACTED AT LEAST FOR A SHORT PERIOD BETWEEN 20-24Z TODAY.
/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/
SAT... VFR. WIND NW AT 5-10 KTS.
SUN... VFR. WIND ENE AT 5-10 KTS.
MON... VFR. WIND NE AT 5-10 KTS.
MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MN...NONE.
WI...NONE.
DISCUSSION...BORGHOFF
AVIATION...BORGHOFF
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