521
FXUS63 KMPX 120838
AFDMPX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
238 AM CST THU FEB 12 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL PERSIST THROUGH EARLY NEXT
WEEK, WITH HIGHS IN THE 40S/50S THROUGH TUESDAY BEFORE
DROPPING BACK MID-NEXT WEEK.
- SATURDAY'S WARM HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL HAVE MSP, STC, AND EAU
ALL APPROACHING 90+ YEAR OLD RECORDS.
- DRY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE WEEKEND, WITH THE NEXT
CHANCE FOR PRECIPITATION NOT UNTIL THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 233 AM CST THU FEB 12 2026
SURFACE ANALYSIS EARLY THIS MORNING SHOWS HIGH PRESSURE ALIGNED
NORTH-SOUTH ALONG THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER WHILE A WEAK SURFACE
LOW SITS OVER CENTRAL SD WITH A WARM FRONT EXTENDING INTO SW MN.
ALOFT, A LARGE TROUGH SITES OVER THE NORTHEASTERN CONUS WHILE
RIDGING IS DEVELOPING FROM THE DEEP SOUTH INTO THE ROCKIES,
PLACING THE UPPER MIDWEST IN NORTHWEST FLOW.
WITH UPPER LEVEL FLOW EXPECTED TO BECOME MORE AMPLIFIED, THIS
WILL HELP DRAW THAT WEAK LOW PRESSURE CENTER TO THE SOUTH
THROUGH THE DAY TODAY, EFFECTIVELY MISSING MN/WI ALTOGETHER.
THUS, THE ONLY SENSIBLE IMPACT WILL BE LINGERING CLOUD COVER FOR
THE FIRST HALF OF TODAY THEN GRADUAL CLEARING. IN FACT, AS
RIDGING BUILDS TO THE WEST AND SOUTH OF MN, SOME OF THIS RIDGING
WILL NUDGE INTO FAR SW MN MAKING FOR A LARGE TEMPERATURE
GRADIENT FROM NE TO SW OVER THE WFO MPX COVERAGE AREA. RESIDUAL
COOLER AIR OVER NORTHERN MN AND INTO WI WILL MAKE FOR HIGHS ONLY
INTO THE UPPER 30S TO AROUND 40 NORTH OF I-94, WHILE THE
REMAINDER OF THE COVERAGE AREA WILL HAVE HIGHS CLIMBING INTO
THE 40S AND 50S, WARMEST OVER SW MN.
RIDGING ALOFT WILL THEN BECOME REINFORCED FRIDAY THROUGH EARLY
NEXT WEEK, KEEPING RELATIVE HIGH PRESSURE IN PLACE ACROSS THE
UPPER MIDWEST AND CONTINUED DRY CONDITIONS THROUGH EARLY NEXT
WEEK. THE HIGHER HEIGHTS ALOFT COMBINED WITH A GENERALIZED
SOUTHERLY SURFACE FLOW WILL FORCE TEMPERATURES WELL ABOVE NORMAL
FOR AT LEAST THE NEXT 5 DAYS (AND THUS MAKING A SIGNIFICANT
REDUCTION IN REMAINING SNOWPACK). TEMPERATURES WILL RUN 20-30
DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL, PEAKING WITH HIGHS IN THE MID-UPPER 50S
FOR THE SOUTHERN HALF OF OUR COVERAGE AREA ON MONDAY (POSSIBLY
REACHING THE LOWER 60S IF OPTIMAL WARMING CONDITIONS ARE
REALIZED). RECORD HIGHS MAY WELL BE IN JEOPARDY FROM SATURDAY
THRU TUESDAY.
THIS PROLONGED THAW LOOKS TO END DURING THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK
AS A BROAD-SCALE PATTERN CHANGE IS EVIDENT IN THE MODELS. THE
WESTERN-TO- CENTRAL CONUS RIDGE WILL BECOME REPLACED BY
TROUGHING OVER THE ROCKIES. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR CYCLOGENESIS
OVER THE LEE OF THE ROCKIES. STILL SOME UNCERTAINTY AS TO
EXACTLY WHERE IN THE REGIONS OF THE CENTRAL-NORTHERN ROCKIES,
BUT PLENTY OF PACIFIC MOISTURE WILL BE DRAGGED INTO THE NORTH-
CENTRAL CONUS WITH THIS DEVELOPING SYSTEM. DUE TO CONTINUED
ABOVE NORMAL, ALBEIT COOLER, AIR OVER THE REGION, THE
EXPECTATION AT THIS POINT IS A COMBINATION OF RAIN/SNOW OVER THE
AREA FOR MID-TO-LATE NEXT WEEK. THAT SAID, THERE IS PLENTY TO
RESOLVE BEFORE ANY SOLUTIONS CAN BE LOCKED INTO WITH ANY
CONFIDENCE.
AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY/
ISSUED AT 1038 PM CST WED FEB 11 2026
SCATTERED TO BROKEN HIGH CLOUDS WILL STREAM OVERHEAD THROUGH
THURSDAY MORNING, THEN CLEAR OUT. WINDS WILL BE LIGHT, LESS THAN
6 KTS.
KMSP...NO CONCERNS.
/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/
FRI-SAT...VFR. WIND SW 5 KTS.
SUN...VFR. WIND W 5 KTS BECOMING S LATE.
CLIMATE
ISSUED AT 228 PM CST WED FEB 11 2026
RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURES FOR FEBRUARY 13TH THROUGH 17TH CAN BE
FOUND IN THE TABLE BELOW. PERIOD OF RECORDS BEGAN: MPX (1996),
MSP (1872), STC (1894), EAU (1893).
FRI SAT SUN MON TUE
2/13 2/14 2/15 2/16 2/17
MPX 47 (2017) 46 (2002) 45 (1999) 54 (2011) 62 (2017)
MSP 51 (1890) 50 (1882) 63 (1921) 60 (1981) 63 (2017)
STC 47 (2011) 52 (1921) 55 (1921) 53 (1981) 59 (2017)
EAU 47 (1921) 49 (1934) 58 (1921) 58 (1931) 55 (1981)
MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MN...NONE.
WI...NONE.
DISCUSSION...JPC
AVIATION...BORGHOFF
CLIMATE...PV
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