781
FXUS63 KMPX 022312
AFDMPX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
612 PM CDT SUN AUG 2 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- TRACKING SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES MONDAY EVENING INTO
TUESDAY. A FEW STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS POSSIBLE IN WESTERN MN
MONDAY EVENING.
- TEMPERATURES NEAR NORMAL THROUGH THE WORK WEEK, WARMING UP
SOME NEXT WEEKEND. NEXT POSSIBLE CHANCE FOR SEEING 90S FOR
HIGHS DOESN'T RETURN UNTIL NEXT WEEKEND (CURRENTLY LESS THAN
20% CHANCE).
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 242 PM CDT SUN AUG 2 2026
ANOTHER PLEASANT SUMMER DAY IS UNFOLDING, WITH THE UPPER RIDGE AXIS
CENTERED FROM COLORADO, NORTHEAST TO NEAR WINNIPEG. THE SURFACE HIGH
IS A BIT EAST OF THE MID-LEVEL RIDGE, CENTERED OVER WI, WITH A COLD
FRONT SLOWLY MOVING EAST ACROSS THE DAKOTAS. THIS HAS A ALLOWED A
PRESSURE GRADIENT TO SLOWLY BUILD THROUGH THE DAY, WITH SOME
SOUTHEAST GUSTS UP AROUND 25 MPH BEING OBSERVED OUT IN WESTERN MN.
THIS FRONT WILL BE THE SOURCE OF OUR NEXT CHANCE FOR RAIN, BUT IT
WILL REMAIN WELL WEST OF US THROUGH THE DAY ON MONDAY, WITH THE
WEATHER MONDAY EXPECTED TO BE SIMILAR TO TODAY, JUST WITH AN UPTICK
IN DEWPOINTS WITH THE SOUTHERLY WINDS. THE WAVE DRIVING THIS FRONT
WILL BE GOING ALONG THE INTERNATIONAL BORDER, SO FORCING WITH THE
FRONT WILL BE STRONGEST NORTH OF US. LATE IN THE DAY ON MONDAY, WE
SHOULD SEE SOME FAIRLY ROBUST CONVECTION DEVELOP IN THE RED RIVER
VALLEY UP FROM FARGO UP TOWARD GRAND FORKS THAT WILL THEN TRACK
ACROSS NORTHWEST MN. THERE'S LESS CONFIDENCE IN HOW WIDESPREAD
CONVECTION ALONG THE FRONT WILL BE SOUTH OF FARGO, BUT SCATTERED
STORMS SHOULD DEVELOP ACROSS EASTERN SODAK LATE IN THE DAY.
CURRENTLY, IT DOESN'T LOOK LIKE WE SEE ANY ACTIVITY INTO WESTERN
PORTIONS OF THE MPX AREA UNTIL AFTER 10PM MONDAY EVENING. AT THAT
POINT, INSTABILITY WILL BE TRENDING DOWN, AS WILL OUR THREAT FOR
SEVERE WEATHER. A SMATTERING OF SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE ALONG THE
FRONT THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING AS IT WORKS ACROSS SOUTHERN MN.
HOWEVER, WITH THE MAIN UPPER WAVE WORKING ACROSS NORTHWEST ONTARIO,
OTHER THAN CONVERGENCE ALONG THE BOUNDARY, WE DON'T HAVE MUCH
FORCING FOR PRECIPITATION, WHICH MEANS FOR MOST OF THE MPX AREA,
THIS FRONT WILL ONLY OFFER A FEW MINOR SHOWERS. PERHAPS THE BIGGEST
IMPACT FROM THE FRONT WILL BE THE POTENTIAL FOR SURFACE BASED SMOKE
IN ITS WAKE FROM WILD FIRES IN WASHINGTON, OREGON, BRITISH COLUMBIA.
OBSERVATIONS THIS AFTERNOON SHOW REDUCED AIR QUALITY BEHIND THE COLD
FRONT IN NORTHEAST MONTANA, THOUGH THERE'S A LOT OF GROUND FOR THAT
SMOKE TO COVER FOR IT TO GET HERE, SO THIS WILL BE SOMETHING TO
WATCH THROUGH THE DAY ON MONDAY.
FOR THE REST OF NEXT WEEK, IT LOOKS TRANQUIL. THE FRONT THAT COMES
THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT WILL SPARK ADDITIONAL ROUNDS OF THUNDERSTORMS
TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY, BUT IT WILL BE IN IOWA WHEN IT DOES SO.
INSTEAD, WE GET SOME VERY PLEASANT AIR FOR TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY,
WITH HIGHS NEAR 80 AND DEWPOINTS FALLING BACK INTO THE 50S, WITH
SOME 40S EVEN POSSIBLE INTO CENTRAL MN.
BY NEXT WEEKEND, THE UPPER FLOW WILL HAVE FLATTENED OUT. THIS WILL
ALLOW WARMER AIR TO SPREAD NORTH, BUT COULD ALSO SEE SOME FRONTAL
ACTIVITY. THERE'S LOTS OF SPREAD IN MODELS WITH THE PLACEMENT OF ANY
FRONTS NEXT WEEKEND. RIGHT NOW, YOU CAN FIND ANYTHING FROM THE
FRONTS REMAINING NORTH OF US, WITH IT BEING HOT (90S POSSIBLE) AND
DRY, TO IT BEING STORMY AND UNSETTLED NEXT WEEKEND. GIVEN THAT
SPREAD, STUCK WITH NBM AT THIS POINT, WHICH HAS HIGHS ABOUT 5
DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL, WITH SOME LOW PRECIP CHANCES THAT PEEK
SATURDAY NIGHT.
AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY/
ISSUED AT 610 PM CDT SUN AUG 2 2026
A QUIET TAF PERIOD IS ON TAP WITH NO SIGNIFICANT WEATHER AND VFR
FOR ALL LOCATIONS THROUGHOUT. THE MAIN CONCERN WILL BE
INCREASING WINDS AFTER 15-18Z, PRIMARILY FROM 150-180 WITH
SUSTAINED WINDS TO 15KTS AND GUSTS UP TO 25KTS. WINDS WILL
INCREASE FROM THE NW TO SE, WITH AXN SEEING STRONGER GUSTS
EARLIER COMPARED TO EAU/MKT. A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH
BEYOND THE END OF THE PERIOD WITH PRECIP CHANCES ALSO RETURNING
AT THAT TIME.
KMSP...NO ADDITIONAL CONCERNS.
/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/
TUE...-SHRA/MVFR EARLY, THEN VFR. WIND NW 10KTS.
WED...VFR. WIND VRB TO SW 5-10KTS.
THU...VFR. WIND SW 5-10KTS.
MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MN...NONE.
WI...NONE.
DISCUSSION...MPG
AVIATION...TDH
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