264
FXUS63 KMPX 280026
AFDMPX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
726 PM CDT TUE OCT 27 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- MULTIPLE CHANCES FOR RAIN OVER THE NEXT WEEK WITH SOME
THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE TOMORROW.
- ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES FAVORED TO CONTINUE INTO EARLY
NOVEMBER.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 106 PM CDT TUE OCT 27 2026
TODAY AND TOMORROW... THE MAIN AREA OF WAA TODAY HAS BEEN
FOCUSED MORE ACROSS SOUTHERN MINNESOTA TODAY. THE LACK OF WAA
AND CONTINUED CLOUD COVER AND AMPLE MOISTURE HAS ALLOWED FOR
COOL TEMPERATURES TO CONTINUE ACROSS WESTERN AND CENTRAL MINNESOTA.
THIS HAS EVEN HAD AREAS OF FOG HOLD ON INTO THE AFTERNOON
HOURS. AS THE TROUGH CONTINUES TO DEVELOP TO OUR WEST, 850MB
FLOW WILL BECOME SOUTHERLY ACROSS MORE OF MINNESOTA AND
WISCONSIN. THIS WILL INCREASE OUR WAA AND WE WILL ALSO SEE
ADDITIONAL MOISTURE ADVECT IN. WITH THIS ADDITIONAL MOISTURE
CLOUD COVER WILL LIKELY PERSIST WHICH WILL LIMIT HOW WARM WE CAN
GET. SHOULD STILL BE ABLE TO GET INTO THE 60S WITH THE CHANCE
FOR SOME LOWER 70S STILL POSSIBLE. THIS WAA SHOULD ALLOW FOR
THE MOTION OF THE BROADER AIR MASS IN SUCH A WAY THIS IT ALLOWS
ENOUGH FGEN FOR A WARM FRONT. THIS FRONT WILL BE A FACTOR IN
THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT TOMORROW. ML CAPE LOOKS TO BUILD DURING
THE DAY TOMORROW REACHING UP TO AROUND 1000 J/KG IN THE
AFTERNOON/EVENING BASED ON CURRENT GUIDANCE. THIS COMBINED WITH
FAVORABLE VERTICAL SHEAR PROFILES HAS INCREASED CHANCES ENOUGH
THAT SPC HAS ADDED IN A MARGINAL RISK FOR TOMORROW. AS FOR
SEVERE MODES, ALL ARE POSSIBLE. THE LOW LEVEL SHEAR LOOKS GREAT,
BUT STORMS COULD END UP MOSTLY ELEVATED AND IT WOULD BE HARD
FOR THEM TO TAKE ADVANTAGE OF THIS. IF WE CAN GET A SURFACE
BASED STORM A TORNADO COULD OCCUR. IF THE STORMS STAY ELEVATED
THIS WILL STAY MORE OF HAIL RISK. OVERALL THIS SEEMS FAIRLY
CONDITIONAL AND STORMS COULD BE QUITE PULSEY. IN THE END IT WILL
ALL COME DOWN TO HOW MUCH SURFACE HEATING WE CAN GET. IF WE
UNDER PERFORM ON TEMPERATURE IT WILL BE UNLIKELY FOR US TO SEE
ANY LONGER LIVED SURFACE BASED STORMS. THE OTHER AIRMASS WILL BE
THE COOLER AIR THAT STARTS TO TRAVEL EAST LATER IN THE DAY
TOMORROW. THIS WILL CREATE A COLD FRONT AND WILL BE ANOTHER
FORCING MECHANISM FOR US TOMORROW.
THURSDAY AND FRIDAY... THURSDAY WE WILL BEHIND THE COLD FRONTAL
PASSAGE AND SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE IN. THE AIRMASS
WILL BE COOLER, BUT THIS HIGHER PRESSURE WILL FINALLY PROVIDE
THE SETUP FOR A RETURN OF THE SUN. TEMPERATURES LOOK TO BE IN
THE 50S MOSTLY ON THURSDAY AS DAYTIME HEATING SOMEWHAT COUNTERS
THE COOLER AIRMASS. FRIDAY LOOKS TO BE SIMILAR DAY TO THURSDAY
AS THE HIGH PRESSURE MOVES OUT. THE BEST RAIN CHANCES AT THE
MOMENT LOOK TO STAY TO OUR SOUTH.
THIS WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK... A LARGER SCALE SYSTEM LOOKS
TO BE MOVING ACROSS THE CONUS THIS WEEKEND. DETERMINISTIC STORM
TRACKS NOW FAVOR AREAS TO OUR SOUTH AND THIS IS REFLECTED IN THE
ENSEMBLE QPF TRENDS AS WELL. WON'T SAY THAT WE WILL BE DRY, BUT
THE TREND HAS BEEN MOVING LOWER. STILL COULD SEE ESPECIALLY
SOUTHERN MINNESOTA SEEING SOME RAIN FROM THIS. IT IS MORE SO
GOING INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK ON MONDAY/TUESDAY THAT IS BETTER
CHANCE RIGHT NOW. ALL DETERMINISTIC GLOBAL MODELS TAKE A DEEP
SURFACE LOW RIGHT ACROSS THE NORTH CENTRAL CONUS. THERE REMAINS
A LOT OF SPREAD TO DETERMINE WHAT SECTOR WE'D BE IN AND WHAT THE
IMPACTS WILL BE, BUT THIS IS THE ONE TO KEEP AN EYE ON FOR THIS
PERIOD. SATURDAY TEMPERATURE WISE LOOKS TO BE MORE 50S. SUNDAY
COULD START TO BE WARMER WITH WAA AHEAD OF THIS NEXT SYSTEM
BUOYING US INTO THE 60S.
AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY/
ISSUED AT 716 PM CDT TUE OCT 27 2026
CEILINGS ARE EXPECTED TO IMPROVE SLIGHTLY THROUGH THE NIGHT BUT
REMAIN PREDOMINATELY MVFR THROUGH THE NIGHT. EXCEPTIONS ARE
ACROSS WEST-CENTRAL MINNESOTA WHERE CEILINGS DROP NEAR 500 FT
EARLY TOMORROW MORNING. MIST/PATCHY DRIZZLE STICKS AROUND
THROUGH THE NIGHT BUT VISIBILITY LARGELY REMAINS VFR, EXCEPT
ACROSS THE AFOREMENTIONED REGION OF LOWER CEILINGS ACROSS WEST-
CENTRAL MN. SOME IMPROVEMENT IS EXPECTED BY TOMORROW AFTERNOON
WITH CEILINGS HOVERING AROUND THE 3000 FT VFR/MVFR THRESHOLD,
BUT OVERALL CONFIDENCE REMAINS LOW REGARDING THE CEILING
HEIGHTS TOMORROW AFTERNOON. A BAND OF SHOWERS & EMBEDDED
THUNDERSTORMS IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP LATE TOMORROW AFTERNOON,
WITH THE BEST CHANCES FOR THUNDER COMING ACROSS EASTERN
MINNESOTA & WESTERN WISCONSIN. SOUTHEAST WINDS OVERNIGHT BECOME
MORE SOUTHERLY TOMORROW MORNING, & EVENTUALLY SOUTHWESTERLY
ALONG THE FRONTAL PASSAGE LATE TOMORROW AFTERNOON.
KMSP...SUB-500 FT CEILINGS REMAIN STUBBORNLY ISOLATED TO MSP
WITH ALL NEIGHBORING AIRPORTS IN THE 800-1000 FT RANGE. WE DO
EXPECT IFR CEILINGS TO CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT HOUR OR TWO, THEN
IMPROVING TO MVFR THROUGH THE REST OF THE NIGHT & MOST OF
TOMORROW. MAIN WINDOW FOR POTENTIAL THUNDERSTORMS LOOKS TO BE
BETWEEN 4-6 PM TOMORROW WITH HAIL POSSIBLE IN THE STRONGEST
STORMS.
/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/
THU...VFR. WIND NW 5-10KTS.
FRI...VFR. WIND E 5-10KTS.
SAT...MVFR/-RA LIKELY. WIND SE 8-12KTS.
MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MN...NONE.
WI...NONE.
DISCUSSION...NDC
AVIATION...ETA
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