913
FXUS63 KMPX 092342
AFDMPX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
642 PM CDT WED SEP 9 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- QUIET WEATHER REMAINDER OF TODAY AND TOMORROW. ACTIVE WEATHER
RETURNS FRIDAY WITH A CHANCE OF STRONG TO SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS.
- EXTENDED FORECAST FEATURES ADDITIONAL RAIN CHANCES SUNDAY AND
MONDAY, ALONG WITH SLIGHTLY BELOW AVERAGE TEMPERATURES.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 255 PM CDT WED SEP 9 2026
REMAINDER OF TODAY AND TUESDAY
CURRENT MID-LEVEL WATER VAPOR SATELLITE IMAGERY (AS OF 1:00PM) SHOWS
DEEP WEST/NORTHWESTERLY FLOW OVER THE REGION WITH AN ABUNDANCE OF
DRIER AIR SETTLING IN ACROSS THE REGION. CURRENT DP TEMPS
ACROSS THE AREA DISPLAY THAT ALSO, WITH VALUES IN THE 50S, 10-15
DEGREES DRIER THAN YESTERDAY AT THIS TIME. WITH A SOMEWHAT
TIGHTLY PACKED PRESSURE GRADIENT AT THE SURFACE, WINDS WILL
CONTINUE TO BE ON THE BREEZY SIDE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON WITH
GUSTS UP TO 25-30 MPH. HIGH TEMPERATURES THIS AFTERNOON WILL TOP
OUT AROUND 80 DEGREES.
WITH OVERNIGHT/EARLY THURSDAY MORNING LOW TEMPERATURES COOLING
ANOTHER 5-10 DEGREES FROM THIS MORNING, ISOLATED AREAS OF PATCHY FOG
WILL BE POSSIBLE ESPECIALLY IN THOSE FOG PRONE AREAS. CONFIDENCE IS
TOO LOW REGARDING OCCURRENCE AND LOCATION, SO NO MENTION THE
THE WX GRIDS IN THIS FORECAST PACKAGE. QUIET AND FAIR WEATHER
CONDITIONS CONTINUE ON THURSDAY AS THE REGION REMAINS UNDER
WEST/NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT. AT THE SURFACE, PRESSURE
GRADIENT WILL RELAX AS HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES IN, LEADING TO
LIGHT WINDS. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL INCREASE A FEW DEGREES FROM
WEDNESDAY, REMAINING A FEW DEGREES ABOVE THE SEASONAL AVERAGE.
FRIDAY
THE NEXT UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM OVER THE NORTHERN ROCKIES AND SOUTHERN
CANADIAN ROCKIES WILL INDUCE LEE-SIDE SURFACE LOW DEVELOPMENT
OVER THE NORTHERN HIGH PLAINS. WITH GOOD AGREEMENT, GUIDANCE
TRACKS THIS 995-1000MB SURFACE LOW MOVING OUT OF SD AND INTO
THE NORTHERN HALF OF MN DURING THE FRIDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING
TIMEFRAME. IN RESPONSE TO DEEPENING LOW PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE,
RETURN FLOW OUT OF THE SOUTH/SOUTHWEST WILL INCREASE ON FRIDAY
AS WELL. 12Z ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE PAINTS HIGH (70-100%)
PROBABILITIES OF GREATER THAN 20 KNOT SURFACE WIND GUSTS ON
FRIDAY. UPDATED FORECAST GRIDS HAVE 15-20 MPH WINDS SUSTAINED
WITH GUSTS UP 30 MPH ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. THUS MOISTURE
VALUES WILL ALSO CREEP BACK UP WITH DP TEMPERATURES BACK INTO
THE 60S AND PW VALUES 125-150 PERCENT OF NORMAL AHEAD OF THE
ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT.
CONVECTIVE PARAMETERS WITHIN THIS WARM SECTOR ENVIRONMENT AREN'T EYE-
POPPING BY ALL MEANS, BUT SUFFICIENT ENOUGH TO PRODUCE SCATTERED
STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ALONG THE WEST TO EAST ADVANCING COLD
FRONT. SURFACE BASED CAPE VALUES OF 1000-2000 J/KG OVERLAID BY
VEERING LOW-LEVEL WINDS AND STEEPENING LAPSE RATES OF ROUGHLY 7
C/KM. AS THE ASSOCIATED UPPER LEVEL TROUGH REMAINS WELL NORTH
INTO CANADA, BULK SHEER VALUES ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA WILL BE
MODEST, INCREASING TO 30-35 KNOTS. THUS, THE SLIGHT (2 OUT OF 5)
RISK FOR SEVERE WEATHER ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA,
MAINLY ALONG AND WEST OF THE I-35. THE MAIN WINDOW FOR STRONG TO
SEVERE CONVECTION WILL BE DURING THE FRIDAY EVENING TIMEFRAME
(6PM - MIDNIGHT). AS OF NOW, BEING 48-60 HOURS OUT FROM THE
FRIDAY EVENING TIMEFRAME, CONFIDENCE REMAINS RELATIVELY LOW
REGARDING WHERE CONVECTION WILL OCCUR AND HOW FAR EAST SAID
CONVECTION WILL TRACK. THE FINER DETAILS WILL NEED TO BE IRONED
OUT IN THE NEXT 24-36 HOURS. THAT SAID, PLEASE STAY TUNED FOR
FURTHER UPDATES.
SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY
QUIET AND FAIR WEATHER CONDITIONS RESUME ON SATURDAY AS
WEST/NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ADVECTS COOLER TEMPERATURES AND DRIER
AIR ACROSS THE AREA. HIGH TEMPERATURES ON SATURDAY WILL TOP OUT
IN THE LOW TO MIDDLE 70S WITH DP TEMPERATURES DROPPING TO
AROUND 50 DEGREES. PRESSURE GRADIENT AT THE SURFACE WILL RELAX
AS HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES IN OVER SOUTHERN CANADA, THUS WINDS
BECOME LIGHT.
THE NEXT UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM WILL QUICKLY RACE ACROSS THE PACNW AND
NORTHERN ROCKIES BEFORE MOVING EAST OFF THE ROCKIES AND TOWARDS THE
UPPER MIDWEST ON SUNDAY. DEEP SOUTH/SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW WILL
TRANSPORT MORE MOISTURE ACROSS THE AREA. THIS COUPLED WITH
WIDESPREAD MID TO UPPER LEVEL ASCENT WILL PROMOTE WIDESPREAD
SHOWERS AND EMBEDDED WEAK THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE REGION SUNDAY
THROUGH MONDAY TIMEFRAME. AS WE'RE STILL A HANDFUL OF DAYS OUT
FROM THIS EVENT, SOME NOTABLE RUN-TO-RUN MODEL DIFFERENCES AND
DISCREPANCIES ARE PRESENT. ECMWF AND GFS MODELS AND THEIR
RESPECTED AI AND ENSEMBLE SUITES HAVE BEEN FAIRLY CONSISTENT
OVER THE PAST FEW DAYS REGARDING TIMING AND AMOUNTS. HOWEVER,
RECENT RUNS SHOW SOME DISCREPANCIES REGARDING THE PLACEMENT OF
HEAVIEST RAIN. THAT SAID, ALTHOUGH CONFIDENCE IS INCREASING
REGARDING WIDESPREAD RAIN ACROSS THE REGION ON SUNDAY AND
MONDAY, THE EXACT PLACEMENT IN THE AXIS OF HEAVIEST RAINFALL
STILL NEEDS TO BE RESOLVED.
AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY/
ISSUED AT 639 PM CDT WED SEP 9 2026
VFR THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH CLEAR SKIES OVERNIGHT & A FEW
DIURNAL CUMULUS TOMORROW AFTERNOON. WNW WINDS WILL REMAIN GUSTY
UP TO 20 MPH THROUGH 8-9 PM, THEN DROP BELOW 5 KTS INTO TOMORROW
MORNING. DIRECTION GENERALLY SHIFTS FROM WESTERLY TONIGHT TO
SOUTHWESTERLY THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. SPEEDS INCREASE
THROUGH MID TO LATE MORNING WITH SOUTHERLY WINDS AROUND 10 KTS
THROUGH THE AFTERNOON & A FEW GUSTS UP TO 20 MPH.
KMSP...NO ADDITIONAL CONCERN.
/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/
FRI...MAINLY VFR. TSRA/MVFR LIKELY LATE. WIND S 15G25-30KTS.
SAT...VFR. WINDS NW 8-12KTS.
SUN...CHANCE SHRA/MVFR. WIND NE 8-12KTS.
MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MN...NONE.
WI...NONE.
DISCUSSION...LPR
AVIATION...ETA
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