301
FXUS63 KMPX 211135
AFDMPX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
635 AM CDT SUN JUN 21 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- A FEW SHOWERS POSSIBLE ACROSS FAR SOUTHERN MINNESOTA TODAY,
THEN BETTER CHANCE FOR WIDESPREAD RAIN TUESDAY.
- BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES CONTINUE THROUGH THE WEEK.
- A MORE ACTIVE PATTERN SHOULD UNFOLD NEXT WEEKEND INTO EARLY
THE FOLLOWING WEEK.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 243 AM CDT SUN JUN 21 2026
A POOL OF RICH MOISTURE STRETCHES ALONG THE MO RIVER VALLEY
THIS MORNING FROM MISSOURI UP TO SOUTH DAKOTA. WIDESPREAD HEAVY
RAIN IS ONGOING ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS WITH SHOWERS EXTENDING
INTO CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST SD. THE AXIS OF BETTER PWATS WILL
EXPAND EASTWARD TODAY, WHICH MAY ALLOW FOR A FEW SHOWERS TO
REACH FAR SOUTHERN MN. OTHERWISE, EXTENSIVE HIGH CLOUDS WILL
STREAM OVER PORTIONS OF THE UPPER MIDWEST WITH LITTLE SENSIBLE
WEATHER.
A SYSTEM TRAVERSING EAST ALONG THE U.S./CANADIAN BORDER MONDAY
WILL BRING INCREASING PWATS BY TUESDAY. PROGGED PWATS HAVE TICKED
UP A BIT FROM YESTERDAY, BUT REMAIN NEAR OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE
CLIMATOLOGICAL NORMS. MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES HAVE ALSO BECOME
SLIGHTLY STEEPER, BUT REMAIN POOR. A COLD FRONT WILL PASS
THROUGH DURING THE AFTERNOON, ACCOMPANIED BY SHOWERS AND A FEW
THUNDERSTORMS. THE LOW WILL SINK SOUTHEAST ALONG THE MISSISSIPPI
RIVER TO SOUTHERN WISCONSIN WEDNESDAY. WRAP AROUND SHOWERS AND
PERHAPS A THUNDERSTORM MAY CONTINUE INTO WEDNESDAY EVENING,
ESPECIALLY NORTH OF I-94. TROUGHING WITH COOL TEMPERATURES
ALOFT AND PWATS REMAINING AROUND 3/4 INCH COULD BRING A FEW
ISOLATED DIURNAL SHOWERS THROUGH THE REST OF THE WORK WEEK. THE
MAJORITY OF LOCATIONS WILL REMAIN DRY. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN
BELOW NORMAL IN THE 70S.
THE PATTERN WILL UNDERGO TRANSITION BY THE WEEKEND. A LARGE
TROUGH WILL DIG INTO THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST WITH MANY SOLUTIONS
EVENTUALLY DEVELOPING STRONG SURFACE LOW PRESSURE OVER THE
NORTHERN U.S. ROCKIES OR THE CANADIAN ROCKIES. THE EVOLUTION OF
THE TROUGH IS STILL OF LOW CONFIDENCE WITH HIGH SPREAD IN
TEMPORAL AND SPATIAL DETAILS. HOWEVER, VERY DEEP MOISTURE
WILL LIKELY ADVECT NORTH FROM THE TROPICS CHARACTERIZED BY
PWATS POSSIBLY EXCEEDING 2 INCHES. STEEP LAPSE RATES
OVERSPREADING THE MOIST WARM SECTOR SHOULD RESULT IN ROUNDS OF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.
AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY/
ISSUED AT 634 AM CDT SUN JUN 21 2026
HIGH CLOUDS WILL CONTINUE TO SPREAD ACROSS THE REGION TODAY. ANY
PRECIP IS EXPECTED TO STAY CONFINED TO FAR SOUTHERN MINNESOTA,
SO ALL OUR TAF SITES WILL REMAIN DRY. KEAU IS DEALING WITH SOME
LOCALIZED FOG THIS MORNING, BUT OTHERWISE, VFR CONDITIONS
PREVAIL THROUGH THE PERIOD. WINDS ARE LIGHT AND GENERALLY
EASTERLY.
KMSP...NO ADDITIONAL CONCERNS.
/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/
MON... VFR. WIND NE 5-10 KTS.
TUE... MAINLY VFR WITH PM -SHRA. CHANCE MVFR/TSRA. WIND S TO SW
5-10 KTS.
WED...VFR. CHC PM MVFR/-TSRA. WIND NW 5-10 KTS.
MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MN...NONE.
WI...NONE.
DISCUSSION...BORGHOFF
AVIATION...DYE
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