624  
FXUS63 KMPX 050340  
AFDMPX  
 
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION  
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN  
1040 PM CDT SAT APR 4 2020  
   
SHORT TERM
 
(THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT)  
ISSUED AT 303 PM CDT SAT APR 4 2020  
 
HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVERHEAD HAS RESULTED IN A SUNNY, BUT COOL  
DAY. THROUGH SUNDAY, THIS HIGH WILL HEAD INTO THE GREAT LAKES, WITH  
RETURN FLOW DEVELOPING. CLOUD COVER REALLY DOES NOT START TO PICK UP  
UNTIL SUNDAY AFTERNOON INTO SUNDAY NIGHT AS WE START GETTING A LLJ  
TO DEVELOP WITHIN THE RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION OF AN UPPER JET STREAK  
FROM NORTHERN MN ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES. SUNDAY NIGHT, BEST WAA IS  
ANGLED UP INTO NORTHERN MN, WHERE THE GREATEST THREAT FOR PRECIP  
RESIDES. DID TRIM POPS BACK QUITE A BIT FOR SUNDAY NIGHT AS A  
RESULT, THOUGH YOU CAN'T COMPLETELY RULE OUT SOME SCATTERED SHOWERS  
REALLY ANYWHERE IN MN GIVEN THE BROAD ISENTROPIC LIFT WITHIN THE  
SOUTHERLY LOW LEVEL FLOW MOVING INTO THE STATE.  
   
LONG TERM
 
(MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)  
ISSUED AT 303 PM CDT SAT APR 4 2020  
 
THE LONG TERM WILL FEATURE A COUPLE OF PLEASANT DAYS MONDAY AND  
TUESDAY, BUT MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW A SIGNIFICANT PATTERN SHIFT  
OCCURRING MID WEEK TO THAT OF COOL AND DRY NORTHWEST FLOW THAT LOOKS  
TO PERSIST THOUGH THE MIDDLE OF APRIL.  
 
MONDAY STILL LOOKS TO BE A DRY DAY AS ACTIVITY FROM SUNDAY NIGHT  
MOVES EAST OF THE AREA. BUT WE SHOULD REPEAT THE SHOWER PROCESS  
MONDAY NIGHT AS THE LLJ STRENGTHENS AGAIN. ONCE AGAIN, THE BEST  
WAA/MOISTURE CONVERGENCE WITH THE LLJ LOOKS TO BE ACROSS NORTHERN  
MN, WITH THIS ACTIVITY DIVING SOUTHEAST THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING ON  
THE NOSE OF THE LLJ. AS A RESULT, BEST PRECIP CHANCES MONDAY NIGHT  
THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING LOOK TO BE ALONG/NORTH OF THE I-94 CORRIDOR  
IN MN AND NORTH OF THE I-90 CORRIDOR IN WI. WE CONTINUE TO SEE  
MODELS SHOWING OVER 1000 J/KG OF MUCAPE DEVELOPING AHEAD OF THE COLD  
FRONT SWING THROUGH HERE TUESDAY MORNING/EARLY AFTERNOON, THOUGH IT  
IS STRONGLY CAPPED AND THERE ARE NO INDICATIONS OF WARM SECTOR  
CONVECTION OCCURRING UNTIL NORTHERN IL/SOUTHERN WI.  
 
FOR TEMPERATURES ON TUESDAY, LEFT THE NBM HIGHS IN THERE, WHICH WAS  
IN THE WARMER HALF OF GUIDANCE. THOUGH THE SURFACE COLD FRONT COMES  
THROUGH IN THE MORNING, WE DON'T REALLY SEE 925-850MB TEMPS COOL OFF  
UNTIL THE STRONG COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH ON WEDNESDAY. WE'LL SEE  
VERY DEEP MIXING ON TUESDAY WITH SUNNY SKIES, WHICH SHOULD STILL  
ALLOW US TO MAKE A RUN AT 70 ACROSS SOUTHERN MN, WHICH WILL  
PROBABLY BE OUR LAST RUN AT 70 UNTIL AT LEAST THE END OF THE MONTH.  
 
AS THE PATTERN SHIFT HAPPENS WEDNESDAY, MODELS ARE STARTING TO A  
SHOW STRONG NORTHWEST FLOW SHORTWAVE MOVING THROUGH ON WEDNESDAY AND  
WE WILL LIKELY SEE SOME SHOWERS DEVELOP AHEAD OF IT AND ITS STRONG  
COLD FRONT MOVING SOUTH ACROSS THE AREA DURING THE DAY ON WEDNESDAY.  
BEHIND THIS FRONT, IT'S A PROLONGED PERIOD OF NORTHWEST FLOW, WITH  
H85 TEMPS PROGGED TO REMAIN BELOW 0C ALL THE WAY INTO MID APRIL,  
HENCE WHY IT WILL LIKELY BE A WHILE BEFORE WE EVEN COME CLOSE TO  
SNIFFING 70 AGAIN. AS IS ALWAYS THE CASE WITH NORTHWEST FLOW, IT  
WILL HAVE EMBEDDED SHORTWAVES THAT WILL BRING THE OCCASIONAL CHANCE  
FOR LIGHT PRECIP, BUT NO SIGNIFICANT STORMS ARE EXPECTED.  
 

 
   
AVIATION
 
(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY NIGHT)  
ISSUED AT 1040 PM CDT SAT APR 4 2020  
 
VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH FEW/SCT MID TO HIGH CLOUDS  
THROUGH THE MORNING. MID-LEVEL CLOUDS INCREASE AGAIN TOWARDS THE  
END OF THE PERIOD. LIGHT SOUTHEAST WINDS TO START THE PERIOD WILL  
BECOME MORE SOUTHERLY TOMORROW MORNING, WITH SPEEDS INCREASING TO  
AROUND 10 KTS BY THE AFTERNOON. GUSTS AROUND 20 KTS ARE ALSO  
POSSIBLE TOMORROW AFTERNOON AT AXN AND RWF.  
 
KMSP...NO ADDITIONAL CONCERNS.  
 
/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/  
MON...MVFR CIGS. CHC -SHRA/IFR. WIND SE 5-10 KTS.  
TUE...VFR. CHC -TSRA/MVFR EARLY. WIND BECOMING WNW 15G25 KTS.  
WED...VFR. WINDS NW 15G25 KTS.  

 
   
MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
 
 
WI...NONE.  
MN...NONE.  

 
 

 
 
SHORT TERM...MPG  
LONG TERM...MPG  
AVIATION...ETA  
 
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