385
FXUS63 KMPX 181125
AFDMPX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
625 AM CDT SAT JUL 18 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- MORE SMOKE POSSIBLE THIS WEEKEND.
- NEXT CHANCE FOR STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS TOMORROW INTO MONDAY.
- COOLER NEAR TO SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARRIVE
TUESDAY.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 309 AM CDT SAT JUL 18 2026
A FEW ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUE EARLY THIS MORNING ACROSS
SOUTHERN MINNESOTA AS A FRONT CONTINUES TO PUSH THROUGH. BEHIND
THIS FRONTAL PASSAGE WE HAVE SEEN A RETURN TO MORE NORTHERLY
FLOW WHICH HAS ALLOWED FOR SOME SMOKE TO RETURN. THIS HAS ONLY
PRODUCED SLIGHT VISIBILITY REDUCTIONS AND AQI ONLY INTO THE
MODERATE RANGE, NOTHING LIKE WHAT WE SAW EARLIER IN THE WEEK.
SOME RECENT RAIN HAS HELPED, BUT FIRES ARE STILL BURNING TO THE
NORTH IN ONTARIO. HRRR SMOKE RUNS DO SUGGEST THAT SMOKE FROM
THESE FIRES WILL TRANSPORT SOUTH LATER TODAY, WITH THE GREATEST
CHANCES OVER WISCONSIN. LOOKING TO MPCA AND WI DNR FORECASTS
THEY BOTH TARGET NORTHEAST MN AND NORTHERN WI AS THE AREAS OF
THE MAIN RISK TODAY. SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY SOME OF THIS
SMOKE COULD MAKE IT INTO PARTS OF EAST CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST
MINNESOTA AS WELL, BUT THIS IS MUCH LESS CERTAIN. IN GENERAL WE
HAVE SEEN AN AREA OF SMOKE NEAR THE FRONTAL PASSAGE AND THEN
AFTER THAT BETTER CONDITIONS. PAST THAT WILL NEED NEW SMOKE
WHICH FAVORS NE MN/NW WI TODAY AND POSSIBLY EXPANDS INTO EASTERN
MN ON SUNDAY. OVERALL TODAY WILL BE COOLER AND DRIER THAN
FRIDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE MOVES IN. HIGHS IN THE 80S WILL BE A
NICE BREAK FROM THE LOWER TO MID 90S THAT WERE MORE COMMON ON
FRIDAY, ALTHOUGH FULL RELIEF FROM THE HEAT WILL HAVE TO WAIT
UNTIL NEXT WEEK.
THIS BREAK WILL NOT LAST LONG AS A TROUGH BUILD INTO THE
CANADIAN PRAIRIES TO OUR NORTH. THE ASSOCIATED LOW AND ITS
FRONTS WILL DRIVE THE NEXT WEATHER EVENT FOR THE UPPER MIDWEST.
ON SUNDAY ATTENTION WILL BE MAINLY TO OUR NORTHWEST WHERE CI IS
LIKELY TO OCCUR AND A BETTER ENVIRONMENT EXISTS. ONE POSSIBLE
SOLUTION WOULD SEE LONGER TRACKED STORMS MOVE EAST INTO
MINNESOTA FROM THE DAKOTAS. THE OTHER WOULD BE SOME ELEVATED
STORMS DEVELOPING MORE OVER US. HOW SUNDAY NIGHT/EARLY MONDAY
MORNING PLAYS OUT WILL BE KEY IN HOT IT GETS ON MONDAY. IF WE DO
SEE STORMS IT COULD HELP TO LIMIT THE EXTENT OF THE HEAT. IF WE
DO NOT SEE STORMS OR THEY ARE ISOLATED WE WILL SEE MORE
WIDESPREAD HEAT IMPACTS. MONDAY COULD SEE DEW POINTS SURGE INTO
THE LOWER 70S AND WITH TEMPERATURES ON THE WARMER SOLUTION
REACHING INTO THE LOWER TO MID 90S MAKING FOR ANOTHER DAY OF
HEAT IMPACTS. IN ADDITION THIS WOULD MAKE FOR A VERY UNSTABLE
AIRMASS FOR ANOTHER ROUND OF STORMS. WHEN AND WHERE THE FRONTAL
PASSAGE OCCURS WILL BE KEY HERE. AS THE ENVIRONMENT LOOKS QUITE
FAVORABLE, IT IS MORE JUST WHERE THE CI WILL OCCUR IN THE
MIDWEST. WE COULD SEE THE FRONT MOSTLY PAST US BY THE CI OCCURS
OR IT COULD BE RIGHT OVER US. SPREAD REMAINS IN GUIDANCE AND AS
WE MOVE INTO THE HIGHER RESOLUTION WINDOWS THIS SHOULD PROVIDE
FOR ADDITIONAL GUIDANCE IN MAKING THIS DETERMINATION IN FUTURE
FORECAST SHIFTS.
BEHIND THE COLD FRONT TEMPERATURES WILL BE MUCH COOLER ON
TUESDAY WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 70S TO LOWER 80S. THIS COOLER
AIR LOOKS LIKELY TO HOLD IN THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK BEFORE A
WARMING TREND RESUMES LATE WEEK INTO NEXT WEEKEND. THERE ARE
SOME SIGNALS FOR PRECIPITATION CHANCES FOR THE REST OF THE WEEK,
BUT SPREAD REMAINS HIGH AND NBM POPS ARE RIGHTFULLY LOW.
AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY/
ISSUED AT 624 AM CDT SAT JUL 18 2026
VFR CEILINGS THROUGH THE PERIOD, JUST GOING TO BE KEEPING AN EYE
ON VISIBILITY AS SOME SMOKE HAS MOVED IN WITH NORTHERLY FLOW.
OVERALL MOST OF THE MVFR IMPACT THIS MORNING HAS BEEN MORE
RELATED TO MIST/FOG IN AREAS OF SATURATION RATHER THAN SMOKE.
THE MAIN AREA OF SMOKE BASED ON MODEL RUNS IS MORE TO OUR EAST
OVER MI AND PARTS OF WI. THE GREATEST RISK OF CATEGORICAL VISIBILITY
REDUCTION DUE TO SMOKE REMAINS FOR THE WI TERMINALS EAU AND RNH.
KMSP...SOME SMOKE WITH CATEGORY REDUCTION TO MVFR REMAINS
POSSIBLE, BUT CHANCES ARE CURRENTLY BELOW TAF INCLUSION. THE
BEST CHANCE FOR A REDUCTION TO MVFR RIGHT NOW LOOKS TO BE
TONIGHT INTO TOMORROW MORNING.
/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/
SUN PM...VFR. CHC -TSRA/MVFR. WIND S 5-15 KTS.
MON...VFR, CHC AM MVFR/-TSRA. WIND SW TO NW 10-15G25 KTS.
TUE...VFR. WIND NW 15-20G30 KTS.
MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MN...NONE.
WI...NONE.
DISCUSSION...NDC
AVIATION...NDC
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