703
FXUS63 KMPX 131139
AFDMPX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
539 AM CST TUE JAN 13 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- LIGHT RAIN SPREADS ACROSS WESTERN WISCONSIN OVERNIGHT, BUT
TEMPERATURES SHOULD REMAIN WARM ENOUGH TOP PREVENT ANY ICING.
- NORTHWESTERLY WIND GUSTS OVER 30 MPH THIS AFTERNOON BEHIND A
COLD FRONT, ALONG WITH RAPIDLY FALLING TEMPERATURES
- PERIODS OF LIGHT SNOW THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY WITH TOTAL
ACCUMULATIONS OF 2-4" EXPECTED.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 238 AM CST TUE JAN 13 2026
LIGHT RAIN CONTINUES TO SPREAD ACROSS WESTERN WISCONSIN
OVERNIGHT AS EXPECTED, BUT TEMPERATURES A FEW DEGREES WARMER
THAN PREVIOUSLY FORECAST HAS REMOVED ANY CHANCE FOR FREEZING
RAIN/FREEZING DRIZZLE. GROUND TEMPERATURES STILL REMAIN COLD
HOWEVER, SO STILL WATCH OUT FOR SOME SLICK PATCHES ON UNTREATED
SURFACES THROUGH THIS MORNING FROM THE LIGHT RAIN & MELTING
SNOW.
A COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE REGION THIS AFTERNOON & EVENING,
LEADING TO GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS & PLUMMETING TEMEPRATURES
AFTER SUNSET. WE USUALLY SEE WIND GUSTS OVERACHIEVE IN THESE
COLD ADVECTION REGIMES, SO WIND GUSTS OF 30-40 MPH LOOK LIKELY
THIS AFTERNOON & EVENING WITH GUSTS DIMINISHING AFTER MIDNIGHT.
THE COLD AIR FROM THIS FRONT DOESN'T REALLY ARRIVE UNTIL THIS
EVENING, SO MOST OF THE AREA SHOULD STILL REACH THE 40S THIS
AFTERNOON. HOWEVER, TEMPERATURES QUICKLY PLUMMET IN THE TEENS &
SINGLE DIGITS TONIGHT. THE COLD ADVECTION CONTINUES INTO
WEDNESDAY WITH DAYTIME HIGHS ONLY EXPECTED TO BE IN THE TEENS,
WHILE NORTHWEST WINDS MAKE THE WIND CHILL FEE NEAR ZERO DURING
THE DAY.
DETERMINISTIC & ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO BE IN CONSENSUS
WITH A TROUGH DEEPENING OVER THE GREAT LAKES THURSDAY THROUGH
FRIDAY, WHILE A NUMBER OF SHORTWAVES/LOBES OF VORTICITY PIVOT
OVER THE AREA. THIS WILL CREATE MULTIPLE WAVES OF LIGHT TO
MODERATE SNOW THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY, ALTHOUGH NONE OF THESE
WAVES LOOK TO BE ACCOMPANIED BY ANY APPRECIABLE MOISTURE.
SNOWFALL RATES SHOULD REMAIN LIGHT, WITH ACCUMULATIONS
EVENTUALLY ADDING UP TO 2-4" ACROSS MOST OF THE AREA BY THE TIME
THE SNOW WRAPS UP FRIDAY NIGHT/SATURDAY MORNING. WE COULD SEE
SOME BORDERLINE ADVISORY-LEVEL IMPACTS IF ONE OF THESE WAVES OF
SNOW TIMES UP WITH THE MORNING OR EVENING COMMUTES THURSDAY OR
FRIDAY, BUT OVER WISE THIS LOOKS TO BE A "COSMETIC SNOWFALL"
FOR THE AREA.
WE REMAIN ENTRENCHED IN A COLD AIRMASS AFTER THE TROUGH BEGINS
SLIDING OFF TO THE EAST THIS WEEKEND WITH ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE
SUGGESTING TEMPERATURES 15-20 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL THIS WEEKEND
INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. THAT LIKELY MEANS HIGHS IN THE SINGLE
DIGITS & LOWS BELOW ZERO, ALTHOUGH LOWS WILL GREATLY DEPEND ON
HOW MUCH SNOW WE SEE THU-FRI & HOW CLEAR SKIES CAN STAY
OVERNIGHT. WINDS ALSO LOOK TO REMAIN ELEVATED THROUGH THIS COLD
SNAP, SO WE'LL HAVE TO MONITOR THE POTENTIAL FOR COLD WEATHER
ADVISORIES DURING THE NIGHTS & MORNING HOURS.
AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z WEDNESDAY/
ISSUED AT 539 AM CST TUE JAN 13 2026
MID LEVEL CLOUDS AND A NARROW BAND OF RAIN ARE PROGRESSING EAST
QUICKLY ACROSS WESTERN WI. ADDITIONAL CLOUDS TO THE NORTHWEST
WILL WORK IN DURING THE NEXT FEW HOURS AND MVFR CIGS ARE
EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. WEST WINDS WILL BECOME
NORTHWEST GUSTING TO 30-35 KTS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
KMSP...NO CONCERNS THIS MORNING. MVFR CIGS WILL ARRIVE EARLY
AFTERNOON WITH WEST TO NORTHWEST WINDS INCREASING GRADUALLY
THROUGH THE DAY.
/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/
WED...VFR, CHC MVFR EARLY. WIND N 10-15 KTS.
THU...MVFR/-SN LIKELY, CHANCE IFR/LIFR. WIND S 5-10 KTS.
FRI...MVFR/-SN LIKELY, CHANCE IFR. WIND NW 10-15G25 KTS.
MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MN...NONE.
WI...NONE.
DISCUSSION...ETA
AVIATION...BORGHOFF
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