098
FXUS63 KMPX 011147
AFDMPX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
647 AM CDT MON JUN 1 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- SCATTERED RAIN SHOWERS TO DIMINISH BY LATE MORNING, THEN DRY
THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT.
- WIDESPREAD RAINFALL EXPECTED LATE WEDNESDAY THROUGH LATE
THURSDAY, WITH ADDITIONAL CHANCES OF RAIN THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
- TEMPERATURES TO REMAIN ABOVE NORMAL INTO MID-JUNE, INCLUDING
HIGHS NEAR 90 EARLY NEXT WEEK.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 315 AM CDT MON JUN 1 2026
SURFACE ANALYSIS EARLY THIS MORNING SHOWS A NEARLY NORTH-SOUTH
ORIENTED OCCLUSION OVER THE EASTERN DAKOTAS TO A SURFACE LOW
OVER THE EASTERN SD/NE BORDER. HIGH PRESSURE SITS CENTERED TO
THE WEST OF THIS OCCLUDED FRONT OVER THE LEE OF THE ROCKIES
ALONG WITH A STRONGER SURFACE HIGH OVER HUDSON BAY. ALOFT, AN
UPPER LEVEL LOW SITS OVER CENTRAL MT WHILE AN UPPER RIDGE IS
ALIGNED WITH THE HUDSON BAY SURFACE HIGH. A WEAK BAROCLINIC ZONE
SITS OVER MN BETWEEN THE MT UPPER LOW AND ANOTHER UPPER LOW
OVER FAR EASTERN CANADA. IN THIS WEAK PRESSURE PATTERN BETWEEN
THESE SYSTEMS, LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS PERSIST, SCATTERED OVER
CENTRAL-SOUTHERN MN INTO WESTERN WI.
CAMS GENERALLY SHOW A WEAKENING TREND OF THE PRECIPITATION
THROUGH SUNRISE, THOUGH THERE IS THE SMALL SHOT OF A FEW
SHOWERS/T-STORMS CONTINUING INTO LATE MORNING. HOWEVER, AS THE
OCCLUDED FRONT SLOWLY SHIFTS EAST INTO THIS WEAK ZONE ALOFT, THE
FRONT WILL WASH OUT WHILE THE WESTERN UPPER LOW SHIFTS EVEN
FARTHER WEST, THUS MAKING FOR A PATHWAY FOR THE HUDSON BAY HIGH
TO DROP SOUTHWARD TODAY INTO TONIGHT. THE HIGH PRESSURE FEATURES
WILL THEN BECOME THE PREVAILING SYNOPTIC WEATHER FEATURE OVER
THE UPPER MIDWEST AND GREAT LAKES LATE TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY
NIGHT. THE HIGHEST POPS DURING THIS PERIOD WILL BE THROUGH 12Z
THIS MORNING, WITH DRY CONDITIONS EXPECTED FROM LATE THIS
MORNING THROUGH LATE WEDNESDAY MORNING.
COME MIDDAY WEDNESDAY, THE LARGE RIDGE OVER THE GREAT LAKES WILL
DROP SOUTH AND EAST, ALLOWING THE AFOREMENTIONED UPPER LOW OVER
THE NORTHERN ROCKIES TO DRIFT EASTWARD JUST TO THE NORTH OF THE
INTERNATIONAL BORDER. ZONAL TO SW FLOW ALOFT WILL DRAG MOISTURE
FROM THE DEEP SOUTH WELL INTO THE UPPER MIDWEST WHILE AND
ELONGATED WEST-TO-EAST FRONTAL BOUNDARY ASSOCIATED WITH THE
UPPER LOW, AND MULTIPLE SURFACE LOWS ALONG IT, WILL HAVE LITTLE
MOVEMENT FROM WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY. CONVERGENCE ALONG THIS
FRONT WITH THE ELEVATED PWATS DUE TO THE ADVECTED MOISTURE WILL
MAKE FOR WIDESPREAD RAINFALL FROM LATE WEDNESDAY THROUGH LATE
THURSDAY ACROSS THE ENTIRETY OF THE WFO MPX COVERAGE AREA. HAVE
MAINTAINED LIKELY POPS AS MODELS HAVE BEEN CONSISTENT IN THIS
THINKING, INCLUDING THE PRODUCTION OF 0.25-0.75" QPF, HIGHEST
OVER WESTERN MN.
THE UPPER RIDGE WILL STILL SLIDE EASTWARD TO THE SE CONUS AND
COLLAPSE, HELPING BRING THE STALLED FRONTAL BOUNDARY SOUTHWARD
AND AWAY FROM THE UPPER MIDWEST GOING INTO FRIDAY. THERE WILL
STILL BE SOME RESIDUAL INSTABILITY AND PASSING WEAK SHORTWAVES
ALOFT WHICH MAY SPARK SOME ISOLATED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS FOR
FRIDAY-SATURDAY. OTHERWISE, THE MAIN FORECAST TOPIC FOR THE
WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK WILL BE AN UPTICK IN TEMPERATURES.
TEMPERATURES ARE ALREADY EXPECTED TO REMAIN ABOVE NORMAL FOR THE
FIRST WEEK OF JUNE BUT NOTHING EXCESSIVELY SO, WITH HIGHS IN
THE UPPER 70S TO MID 80S FROM TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY. HOWEVER,
RIDGING BUILDING OVER THE SW CONUS THROUGH THE WEEK WILL GAIN
IMPETUS TO SPREAD NORTHEAST INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS AND UPPER
MIDWEST. THIS WILL NUDGE TEMPERATURES UPWARDS EVEN FURTHER,
WHICH HAD BEEN HIGHLIGHTED ON MULTIPLE CPC OUTLOOKS THE PAST FEW
DAYS. NBM CONSENSUS TEMPERATURES HAVE ALSO LATCHED ONTO THIS
IDEA, PRODUCING HIGH TEMPERATURES INTO THE MID- UPPER 80S AND
EVEN NEAR 90 FROM SUNDAY ONWARD. THAT SAID, DEWPOINTS ARE ONLY
EXPECTED TO RUN IN THE UPPER 50S TO MID 60S, THUS KEEPING
EXCESSIVE HEAT AT BAY AS HEAT INDEX VALUES ARE FORECAST TO ONLY
RUN WITHIN A DEGREE OR TWO OF THE ACTUAL TEMPERATURES. LOW POPS
REMAIN IN THE FORECAST, OWING TO ISOLATED CONVECTION POSSIBLE
EACH DAY.
AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z TUESDAY/
ISSUED AT 639 AM CDT MON JUN 1 2026
WHILE NEARLY ALL OF THE OVERNIGHT RAIN SHOWERS OVER CENTRAL MN
INTO WESTERN WI HAVE DISSIPATED, A SMALLER LINE OF
SHOWERS/T-STORMS WHICH FORMED DURING THE EARLY MORNING HOURS IN
WESTERN MN CONTINUES TO SLIDE EAST BUT ALSO BE IN A DISSIPATING
STATE. ASIDE FROM POSSIBLY REACHING AXN-RWF, TAF SITES ARE
EXPECTED TO REMAIN DRY. PATCHES OF IFR CEILINGS WITH MVFR
VISIBILITIES WILL PERSIST INTO THE LATER MORNING HOURS BUT AS
DAYTIME MIXING COMMENCES, THE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL BE SCOURED
OUT AND CONDITIONS WILL IMPROVE TO VFR WITH MID-LEVEL SCT TO
BKN CLOUD COVER. WINDS WILL REMAIN FROM THE E TO SE UNDER 10KTS.
KMSP...A FEW SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE IN THE FIRST 1-2HRS OF THE
01/06Z TAF SET, OTHERWISE DRY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
THROUGHOUT. WITH FEW007 AROUND, IT IS NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION
TO HAVE A BRIEF PERIOD OF IFR CEILINGS DEVELOP GIVEN THAT
SIMILAR SCENARIOS HAVE OCCURRED AT OTHER SITES UPSTREAM IN
SOUTHERN MN. HAVE KEPT CONDITIONS AS VFR BUT WILL MONITOR IF
SUCH CONDITIONS DEVELOP FOR MSP.
/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/
WED...VFR. WIND S 10-15G25 KTS.
THU...-RA LIKELY. CHC TSRA/MVFR. WIND SW 10-15G20 KTS.
FRI...MAINLY VFR. CHC SHRA/TSRA/MVFR. WIND S 10 KTS.
MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MN...NONE.
WI...NONE.
DISCUSSION...JPC
AVIATION...JPC
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