351
FXUS63 KMPX 110828
AFDMPX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
328 AM CDT SAT JUL 11 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- A PROLONGED HEAT WAVE WITH HOT AND DRY CONDITIONS BEGINS TODAY.
- EXPECT SEVERAL DAYS WITH HIGHS IN THE LOW 90S, AND HEAT
INDICES OF 95 TO 100 DEGREES SUNDAY AND MONDAY.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 327 AM CDT SAT JUL 11 2026
LATEST SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWING CLEAR SKIES EARLY THIS MORNING
ALONG WITH A FEW LOCALIZED AREAS OF PATCHY FOG. TEMPERATURES
CURRENTLY RANGING IN THE UPPER 60S WITH DEW POINTS IN THE MID 60S.
THE FORECAST REMAINS ON TRACK WITH THE MAIN WEATHER STORY NOW BEING
A WELL ADVERTISED HEAT WAVE RAMPING UP THIS WEEKEND. A VERY
ANOMALOUS UPPER-LEVEL HIGH BUILDS OVER THE WESTERN CONUS TODAY WHICH
IS PROGGED EASTWARD AND DEEPENS AS IT MOVES INTO THE NORTHERN
PLAINS, SUNDAY. WEAK SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL CONTINUE TO ADVECT DEW
POINTS INTO THE UPPER 60S TO A FEW LOWER 70S WITH SURFACE HIGHS
REACHING NEAR 90 DEGREES FOR MOST OF US WEST OF THE ST. CROIX RIVER
VALLEY. WESTERN WISCONSIN COUNTIES WILL RANGE IN THE UPPER 80S. WITH
INCREASED DEW POINTS TEMPERATURES, WBGT VALUES WILL REACH THE LOW
80S BY LATE MORNING AND HEAT INDICES REACHING THE MID TO UPPER
90S. AS OF NOW, THESE CONDITIONS FALL SHY OF HEAT ADVISORY
CRITERIA BUT IT IS IMPORTANT TO REMAIN HYDRATED AND STAY IN THE
SHADE, WEAR LIGHT COLORED CLOTHING, AND TAKE BREAKS WHEN NEEDED
TO AVOID HEAT ILLNESSES.
SUNDAY INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK FEATURES THE CONTINUATION OF THE THIS
HEAT WAVE WITH LACK OF PRECIPITATION CHANCES UNTIL LATER IN THE
WEEK. ON SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY, FORECAST HIGH TEMPERATURES
WILL REACH THE LOW TO MID 90S WITH DEW POINTS REMAINING ELEVATED
IN THE UPPER 60S TO LOW 70S. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR HEAT INDICES
ONCE AGAIN TO CREEP NEAR 100 DEGREES. AS OF NOW, CONDITIONS LOOK
LIKE WE SHOULD DODGE EXCESSIVE HEAT CONDITIONS HOWEVER HEAT
ADVISORIES WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED STARTING SUNDAY AND PERSISTING
THROUGH TUESDAY. BY LATE WEEK, A WEAK SURFACE LOW TRIES TO BRING
IN SOME RAIN CHANCES MAINLY FOR NORTHERN AND EASTERN MN, AND
WESTERN WI, HOWEVER NBM POPS ADVERTISE ONLY LOW-END CHANCES (SUB
20%) AT THIS TIME. NONETHELESS, GIVEN THE WARM FORECAST THIS
WEEK, CONDITIONS DO MAKE FOR GREAT OPPORTUNITY TO TAKE ADVANTAGE
OF LAKES, COMMUNITY POOLS, SPLASH PADS, ETC. TO HELP BRING SOME
RELIEF FROM THE HEAT. I'LL LEAVE YOU THIS NICE FACT TO "COOL"
YOU OFF AS WELL. WE ARE ONLY 119 DAYS FROM OUR AVERAGE FIRST
SNOWFALL FOR THE YEAR (NOVEMBER 6TH).
AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SUNDAY/
ISSUED AT 1224 AM CDT SAT JUL 11 2026
SOLID VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGHOUT THIS DURATION. MAINLY
CLEAR SKIES OVERNIGHT THROUGH TOMORROW, POSSIBLY WITH SOME FAIR
WX MID-LEVEL DIURNAL CUMULUS CLOUDS DURING THE DAY.
LIGHT/VARIABLE WINDS OVERNIGHT BECOME SOUTHERLY DURING THE DAY
SATURDAY WITH SPEEDS UNDER 10KTS.
KMSP...NO ADDITIONAL CONCERNS.
/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/
MON-WED...VFR. WIND SW AROUND 10KTS.
MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MN...NONE.
WI...NONE.
DISCUSSION...DUNLEAVY
AVIATION...JPC
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