484
FXUS63 KMPX 192350
AFDMPX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
650 PM CDT MON OCT 19 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND DRY WEATHER EXPECTED THROUGH
THE WEEK.
- CHANCES FOR RAIN ARE NOT IN THE FORECAST UNTIL THIS WEEKEND.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 242 PM CDT MON OCT 19 2026
QUIET WEATHER CONTINUES, WITH AN OVERALL DRY ATMOSPHERIC PROFILE
MEANING THERE'S NO MOISTURE FOR THE WEAK COLD FRONT THAT'S STALLED
OUT FROM SOUTHWEST MN INTO NORTHERN WI TO WORK WITH TO PRODUCE CLOUD
COVER LET ALONE RAINFALL. THIS FRONT WILL WASH OUT OVERNIGHT, WITH
MULTIPLE DAYS OF SOUTHERLY FLOW EXPECTED THROUGH SATURDAY. THIS WILL
SUPPORT HIGHS 15 TO 20 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL THIS WEEK, AS OUR
OCTOBER OF EXCEPTIONAL WARMTH CONTINUES. BASED ON RECENT
PERFORMANCE, CONTINUED THE TREND OF THE PREVIOUS FORECAST OF GOING
WITH THE NBM 90TH PERCENTILE FOR HIGHS FOR TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY.
TO GET RECORD HIGHS, WE NEED LOWER 80S FOR HIGHS, WITH MID/UPPER 70S
CURRENTLY EXPECTED BY THE END OF THE WEEK, SO WARM, BUT NOT QUITE
RECORD HIGH AT THE MOMENT.
FOR THE WEEKEND, MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW A WEAK COLD FRONT MOVING
INTO MN. THIS FRONT WILL BE RUNNING INTO RIDGE AXIS FROM THE GULF TO
THE GREAT LAKES, WITH THE PARENT LOW DRIVING THIS FRONT STAYING WELL
NORTHWEST OF MN. THIS MEANS FORCING ON THE FRONT CONSISTS OF SHALLOW
CONVERGENCE AND MOISTURE NEAR THE SURFACE THAT IS HOPEFULLY ENOUGH
TO CREATE SOME RAIN SHOWERS. TIMING AND PLACEMENT OF THE FRONT
CONTINUES TO BE VARIED, WITH NBM STILL KEEPING POPS IN THE 30-50%
RANGE, WITH THE HIGHEST POPS COMING ON SATURDAY. THIS DOESN'T LOOK
LIKE A BIG RAIN MAKER OR HAZARDOUS WEATHER PRODUCER, MORE OF A
NUISANCE TO ANY OUTDOOR PLANS YOU HAVE IF YOU HAPPEN TO MEET UP WITH
SOME RAIN ALONG THIS BOUNDARY. WHAT DOES HAPPEN IS HIGH PRESSURE
MOVES IN BEHIND THIS FRONT, BRINGING TEMPERATURES BACK DOWN TO NEAR
NORMAL. IT'S JUST A QUESTION OF DOES THAT COOLER AIR SHOW UP ON
SUNDAY OR MONDAY.
BEYOND THE FORECAST, THE 8-12 DAY PERIOD (END OF OCTOBER) LOOKS
POTENTIALLY INTERESTING FROM A MEAN UPPER AIR AND JET PATTERN WITH
SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT. HOWEVER, OVER THE LAST COUPLE OF WEEKS,
THE 8-12 PERIOD HAS OFTEN LOOKED INTERESTING, BUT THAT INTERESTING
WEATHER HAS ALWAYS STAYED 8-12 DAYS OUT. SO WHILE WE WORK ON OUR
LATE SEASON SUN TANS THE REST OF THE WEEK, IT WILL BE INTERESTING TO
SEE IF WE CAN FINALLY BRING A MORE ACTIVE PATTERN TO WITHIN THE 8-12
DAY WINDOW.
AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY/
ISSUED AT 649 PM CDT MON OCT 19 2026
CLEAR SKIES TONIGHT WITH EAST-SOUTHEAST WINDS AT OR ABOUT 5KTS. ONLY
CONCERN FOR TONIGHT IS A NON-ZERO POTENTIAL OF RADIATIONAL FOG
DEVELOPING EARLY TOMORROW MORNING. DECIDED TO LEAVE OFF ANY FOG
MENTIONS IN THE TAF FOR NOW DUE TO LACKED CONFIDENCE ON DIRECT
IMPACTS TO ANY OF THE SITES. WINDS BY LATE MORNING SHIFT SSE'LY
ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE TO 10-12KTS WITH GUSTS BETWEEN
18-20KTS.
KMSP...NO ADDITIONAL CONCERNS.
/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/
WED...VFR. WIND SW 5-10 KTS.
THU...VFR. WIND S 5-10 KTS.
FRI...VFR. WIND SE 10-15G25 KTS.
MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MN...NONE.
WI...NONE.
DISCUSSION...MPG
AVIATION...DUNLEAVY
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