709
FXUS63 KMPX 100552
AFDMPX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
1252 AM CDT FRI JUL 10 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- SCATTERED DIURNAL STORMS ARE EXPECTED FRIDAY AND FRIDAY
EVENING ACROSS MINNESOTA. OTHERWISE, VERY LITTLE CHANCES FOR
PRECIP THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.
- A LONG DURATION HEAT WAVE MOVES IN THIS WEEKEND AND CONTINUES
THROUGH MOST OF NEXT WEEK.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 240 PM CDT THU JUL 9 2026
IT IS A PLEASANT DAY ACROSS THE REGION WITH WARM TEMPERATURES
NEAR 80, LIGHT WINDS, MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES, AND LOW HUMIDITY. SOME
OF THE MORE DEVELOPED CU HAVE FORMED A FEW SHOWERS ACROSS
SOUTHEAST MN AND CENTRAL WI, BUT THESE ARE SOUTHEAST OF THE
AREA. OTHER SMALL CLUSTERS OF STORMS EXIST ACROSS ND AND THE
BLACK HILLS OF SD - A PREVIEW OF WHAT IS TO COME FRIDAY ACROSS
MN WITH THE APPROACH OF A WEAKENING COLD FRONT. HEIGHTS FRIDAY
WILL BEGIN RISING STEADILY. WHILE THIS GENERALLY IS NOT
FAVORABLE FOR CONVECTION, THE COLD FRONT AND AN UNCAPPED
2000-3000 J/KG OF SBCAPE WILL DEVELOP DURING THE AFTERNOON
ACROSS WESTERN MN. SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE DURING
THAT TIME. WINDS THROUGHOUT THE COLUMN WILL BE LIGHT, BUT ENOUGH
VEERING SHOULD EXIST TO SQUEEZE OUT 20-30 KTS OF BULK SHEAR.
THIS MAY ALLOW ONE OR TWO STORMS TO BECOME MORE VIGOROUS AND THE
STRONGEST UPDRAFTS COULD CONTAIN SOME HAIL. ACTIVITY SHOULD
DIMINISH QUICKLY AFTER SUNSET AND LIKELY BEFORE REACHING EASTERN
MN AND WI.
THE FRONT WILL WASH OUT SATURDAY AS THE RIDGE CONTINUES TO
BUILD OVER THE ROCKIES. H5 HEIGHTS WILL ALREADY BE APPROACHING
600 DAM OVER WYOMING BY SUNDAY MORNING. THE RIDGE WILL CENTER
ITSELF FARTHER EAST OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS AND/AND UPPER
MIDWEST EARLY NEXT WEEK WHILE POTENTIALLY STRENGTHENING TO AN
INCREDIBLE 601-602 DAM. THE 00Z ECMWF MEAN HEIGHTS BREAK ALL-
TIME RECORDS AT 700, 500, AND 200 MB ACROSS MN AND THE EASTERN
DAKOTAS SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY - SIGNALING A TRULY HISTORIC
EVENT. AS THE PREVIOUS SHIFT NOTED, THE MAX OBSERVED 500 MB
HEIGHT IN OUR LOCAL UPPER AIR RECORD IS 598 DAM. UPPER AIR
FEATURES ALONE, THIS WOULD MEAN AN INCREDIBLY INTENSE HEAT WAVE.
HOWEVER, LOWER LEVEL FEATURES TELL A DIFFERENT STORY. THIS
DICHOTOMY EXISTS DUE TO SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE EXTENDING FROM
SOUTHEASTERN CANADA AND NEW ENGLAND WESTWARD TO THE MID MISSOURI
VALLEY. A NOTABLE WEAKNESS IN THERMAL PROFILES WILL BE PRESENT
WITHIN THIS CORRIDOR. LOW LEVEL TRAJECTORIES ON MONDAY SHOW OUR
AIR MASS ORIGINATING FROM CENTRAL/EASTERN IA AND NORTHERN MO ON
SUNDAY, WHICH IS FROM THE SURFACE HIGH. A MUCH MORE IMPRESSIVE
LOW LEVEL AIR MASS WILL EXIST OVER EASTERN MT AND THE DAKOTAS
WHERE TRAJECTORIES ARE REMOVED FROM THE SURFACE HIGH'S
INFLUENCE. EXTREME HEAT WATCHES ARE ALREADY IN PLACE THERE. 925
MB TEMPS LOCALLY WILL RANGE FROM +25C TO +29C EARLY NEXT WEEK,
SIGNALING HIGHS IN THE LOW TO MID 90S. IN ADDITION, MOISTURE
ADVECTION FROM THE GULF WILL BE CUT OFF DUE TO THE EXPANSIVE
SURFACE HIGH TO OUR SOUTH, SO ALL OF THE HUMIDITY WILL BE
LOCALLY PRODUCED VIA EVAPOTRANSPIRATION. INSTEAD OF THE MID TO
UPPER 70S DEW POINTS OF A COUPLE WEEKS AGO, WE'LL LIKELY BE IN
THE 65 TO 70 DEGREE RANGE THIS TIME. SO DESPITE THE RECORD-
BREAKING RIDGE OVERHEAD, THE SURFACE HIGH TO THE SOUTH WILL
LIKELY SPARE US OF A DANGEROUS AND HISTORIC HEAT WAVE, ALTHOUGH
IT WILL STILL BE HOT AND HUMID. UNLESS THE HUMIDITY AND/OR
TEMPERATURES TREND WARMER THAN WHAT IS CURRENTLY PREDICTED, WE
MAY BE ABLE TO ESCAPE EXTREME HEAT WARNINGS WITH THIS EVENT.
THUNDERSTORM CHANCES ARE NEARLY ZERO THROUGH TUESDAY. CONFIDENCE
DROPS OFF MID TO LATE WEEK AS THE RIDGE BREAKS DOWN AND COLD
FRONTS BEGIN TO ADVANCE INTO THE NORTHERN U.S. AGAIN.
AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SATURDAY/
ISSUED AT 1237 AM CDT FRI JUL 10 2026
ASIDE FROM POTENTIALLY SOME SUNRISE GROUND FOG IN FAR SOUTHERN
MN INTO WESTERN WI (I.E. MKT-RNH-EAU) DUE TO SUFFICIENT
RADIATIONAL COOLING CONDITIONS, VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
THROUGHOUT THIS DURATION. MID-LEVEL DIURNALLY-DRIVEN MID-LEVEL
CLOUDS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP FROM LATE MORNING ONWARD INTO THE
EVENING HOURS TODAY. PRECIP CHANCES ARE QUITE LOW, BUT NON-ZERO
OVER FAR WESTERN MN. THUS, A FEW ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE
OVER AXN-RWF BUT TIMING/PLACEMENT CONFIDENCE TOO LOW TO INCLUDE
MENTION AT THIS POINT. WINDS WILL RUN PRETTY LIGHT, UNDER 10KTS
THROUGHOUT, WITH MAINLY SE TO S DIRECTIONS FROM LATE MORNING
INTO THIS EVENING.
KMSP...NO ADDITIONAL CONCERNS.
/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/
SUN-MON...VFR. WIND SW 5-10KTS.
TUE...VFR. WIND SW 8-12KTS.
MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MN...NONE.
WI...NONE.
DISCUSSION...BORGHOFF
AVIATION...JPC
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