981
FXUS63 KMPX 011521
AFDMPX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
921 AM CST THU JAN 1 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- ANOTHER ROUND OF LIGHT SNOW WILL PRODUCE UP TO AN INCH OR SO OF
ACCUMULATION ALONG AND NORTH OF I-94 TODAY.
- COLDER TO OPEN 2026, WITH BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES THROUGH
SATURDAY. TEMPERATURES WARM UP HEADING INTO NEXT WEEK.
- SEVERAL ADDITIONAL CHANCES FOR LIGHT SNOW THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK,
HOWEVER SIGNIFICANT ACCUMULATION IS NOT EXPECTED.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 315 AM CST THU JAN 1 2026
ANOTHER MORNING AND YET ANOTHER ROUND LIGHT SNOW IS MOVING
ACROSS EASTERN ND AND NORTHWEST MN -- THE ONLY DIFFERENCE IS
THAT IT'S NOW 2026! FOR THE THIRD CONSECUTIVE DAY WE ARE
TRACKING A BAND LIGHT SNOW CAPABLE OF PRODUCING UP TO AN INCH OR
SO OF ACCUMULATION ACROSS CENTRAL & EASTERN MN AND WESTERN WI.
DRIVING THE SNOW CHANCE IS AN IMPULSE WITHIN THE NORTHWESTERLY
FLOW ALOFT. SUPPORTED BY F-GEN, THE BAND WILL TRANSLATE FROM
NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST ALONG A BAROCLINIC GRADIENT THIS MORNING
THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON. SIMILAR TO THE PAST TWO DAYS, WE
ANTICIPATE A LARGE FOOTPRINT OF SNOWFLAKES AND MINOR
ACCUMULATIONS, THOUGH GIVEN THE NATURE OF THE SETUP THERE WILL
LIKELY BE ONE LOCALIZED NARROW BAND OF 1-2" POSSIBLE. IT LOOKS
LIKE THE BEST CHANCE FOR THIS TO OCCUR WILL BE NORTHEAST OF I-94
IN EASTERN MN/WESTERN WI. FOLLOWING THE TRENDS OF THE RECENT
DAYS, WE HAVE BOOSTED POPS WELL ABOVE BLENDED GUIDANCE DUE TO
THE HIGH POP/LOW QPF NATURE OF THIS ROUND OF PRECIPITATION. POPS
FALL OFF QUICKLY SOUTHWEST OF A LINE FROM POPE TO STEELE
COUNTIES. ONCE AGAIN, WE'LL HAVE ENOUGH SNOW TO REINTRODUCE
SLICK TRAVEL CONDITIONS ON THE ROADS.
STRATUS WITHIN A REGION OF MID-LEVEL WARM ADVECTION PRECEDING
TODAY'S BAND OF LIGHT SNOW HAS WORKED TO BLANKET THE BOUNDARY LAYER
AND AND LIMIT COOLING. 2 AM TEMPERATURES ARE RUNNING WELL ABOVE
FORECAST, SO HAVE COLLABORATED WITH NEIGHBORING WFO'S TO MAKE A
NOTED INCREASE IN THE THE MORNING LOWS/HOURLY TEMPERATURES
THROUGH MIDDAY TO REFLECT THESE TRENDS. THE COLDEST TEMPERATURES
WILL ONLY BE A FEW DEGREES BELOW ZERO IN ISOLATED SPOTS.
DESPITE RUNNING WARMER EARLY TODAY, IT'S STILL GOING TO BE A
COLD DAY OVERALL, WITH AFTERNOON HIGHS RANGING BETWEEN 10-15
DEGREES.
NORTHWESTERLY FLOW WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES BELOW NORMAL FRIDAY AND
SATURDAY. THE NEXT CLIPPER IS PROGGED TO MOVE ACROSS NORTHERN MN
LATE TOMORROW NIGHT INTO SATURDAY MORNING. NBM'S POPS ARE NOT OVERLY
EXCITED WITH THE PROSPECTS OF SNOW ACROSS CENTRAL MN/WESTERN WI,
THOUGH THE POTENTIAL FOR ANOTHER LOW QPF/HIGHER POP SCENARIO MAY
SIGNAL THE NEED FOR A BOOST IN THE POPS NORTH OF I-94. STILL
WOULDN'T BE LOOKING AT MUCH IN THE WAY OF SNOW ACCUMULATION ACROSS
OUR CWA IN THIS SCENARIO. THE UPPER-FLOW TAKES ON A MORE WESTERLY
LOOK HEADING INTO THE SECOND HALF OF THE WEEKEND. GUIDANCE
ADVERTISES A SHORTWAVE TRANSLATING EAST WITHIN THE FLOW OVER THE
NORTHERN PLAINS SUNDAY AND DRIVING PRECIPITATION CHANCES ACROSS
THE UPPER MIDWEST SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY. SOME UNCERTAINTY IN
THE P-TYPE GIVEN RISING THICKNESSES AND INCREASING WARM
ADVECTION/SW FLOW OUT OF THE GREAT PLAINS. WE DID HAVE SOME
FREEZING RAIN POPULATE IN OUR EXTENDED FORECAST, BUT OPTED TO
REMOVE IT AND DISPLAY ALL SNOW IN THE GRIDS UNTIL CONFIDENCE
INCREASES ONE WAY OR ANOTHER THIS WEEKEND. FORECAST UNCERTAINTY
CLIMBS HEADING INTO THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK AS GUIDANCE VARIES
SIGNIFICANTLY ON THE TIMING AND PLACEMENT OF ANY ADDITIONAL
PRECIPITATION CHANCES WITHIN LARGELY ZONAL FLOW ALOFT. THERE IS
HIGHER CONFIDENCE IN AN ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURE TREND (HIGHS
IN THE LOW TO MID 30S) FOR MUCH OF NEXT WEEK.
AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z FRIDAY/
ISSUED AT 552 AM CST THU JAN 1 2026
LIGHT SNOW WILL SPREAD SOUTHEAST AGAIN THIS MORNING, PRIMARILY
NORTH OF I-94. IFR VISIBILITIES ARE LIKELY AT TIMES FROM MID TO
LATE MORNING BEFORE SNOW EXITS. IMPROVING CONDITIONS THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING, ALTHOUGH SOME MVFR CIGS MAY LINGER ACROSS
WESTERN MN. WINDS WILL BE LIGHT THROUGH THE PERIOD.
KMSP...SNOW IS BEGINNING TO REACH THE GROUND NORTH ACROSS
CENTRAL MN, SPECIFICALLY AROUND LXL AND SAZ. EXPECTING SNOW TO
BEGIN BETWEEN 13-14Z, THEN STEADIER BURSTS ARE POSSIBLE MID TO
LATE MORNING BEFORE ENDING MIDDAY. AROUND A HALF INCH IS
EXPECTED.
/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/
FRI...VFR. WIND W 5-10 KTS.
SAT...VFR. S CHC -SN/MVFR. WIND VARIABLE 5 KTS.
SUN...VFR. WIND S 5-10 KTS.
MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MN...NONE.
WI...NONE.
DISCUSSION...STRUS
AVIATION...BORGHOFF
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