155
FXUS63 KMPX 222257
AFDMPX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
557 PM CDT THU OCT 22 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- QUIET WEATHER CONTINUES THIS AFTERNOON WITH A TOP 10 WEATHER DAY
ONGOING.
- BREEZY SOUTHERLY WINDS EXPECTED TOMORROW WITH RAIN SHOWERS
POSSIBLE IN WESTERN MN.
- MORE SHOWER CHANCES SATURDAY ALONG A COLD FRONT, WITH THE
FRONT STALLING SOUTH OF THE AREA ON SUNDAY. DRY EXCEPT FOR
WESTERN MN ON SUNDAY, WITH FURTHER RAIN SHOWERS EXPECTED BY
MONDAY MORNING. THE HIGHEST RAIN RATES AND BEST ACCUMULATIONS
ARE EXPECTED IN SOUTHWEST/SOUTHERN MN MONDAY MORNING.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 303 PM CDT THU OCT 22 2026
A TOP 10 WEATHER DAY IS UNFOLDING BEFORE US AS YOU WOULD PROBABLY
STRUGGLE TO DESCRIBE A NICER LATE OCTOBER DAY THAN WHAT WE HAVE.
TEMPERATURES RANGE FROM LOW 70S IN WESTERN WI AND CENTRAL MN TO AS
HIGH AS THE UPPER 70S IN SOUTHERN MN AS OF 2:30PM, WITH A LIGHT
BREEZY OUT OF THE SOUTH TO SOUTHEAST AND MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES. THE
ONLY CLOUD COVER ON SATELLITE IS OVER PORTIONS OF WESTERN WI WITH
SOME FAIR WEATHER CUMULUS AS THE REST OF THE AREA IS UNDER TOTAL
SUNSHINE. OUR DAYS ARE GETTING SHORTER SO GET OUTSIDE AND ENJOY THE
BEAUTIFUL WEATHER WHILE IT LASTS!
OUR LAST COUPLE 70 DEGREE DAYS WILL BE TOMORROW AND SATURDAY AS WE
SEE BREEZY SOUTHERLY WINDS PICK UP TOMORROW AHEAD OF AN INCOMING
COLD FRONT WHICH WILL BRING SHOWER CHANCES AND MUCH COOLER
TEMPERATURES AFTER IT PASSES. WINDS INCREASE TO 15-20MPH WITH GUSTS
AS HIGH AS 30-35MPH IN WESTERN MN BY FRIDAY AFTERNOON OUT OF THE
SOUTH WITH A FEW SHOWERS ALSO MOVING ACROSS THE AREA DUE TO THE
INCREASED OMEGA FROM THE WAA IN THE LOWER LEVELS, AS WE DO MAINTAIN
ENOUGH MOISTURE TO PRODUCE SHOWERS. THE BREEZY WINDS WILL PARTIALLY
ELEVATE FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS, HOWEVER THE SHOWERS MOVING IN AND
THE RELATIVELY HIGH MOISTURE WILL KEEP RH HIGH ENOUGH TO PREVENT ANY
SORT OF STATEMENT OR RED FLAG CONDITIONS. THE REST OF THE AREA
REMAINS DRY AND ENJOYS THE WARMER WEATHER UNTIL THE FRONT ARRIVES,
WITH WINDS STARTING TO SHIFT IN WESTERN MINNESOTA BY MIDDAY SATURDAY
ALONGSIDE THE ARRIVAL OF MORE SHOWERS ALONG THE FRONT. THE SYNOPTIC
SETUP FOR THE FRONT IS NOT IDEAL FOR WIDESPREAD SUSTAINED RAINFALL,
RATHER WE LOOK TO HAVE A LINE OF SCATTERED SHOWERS PRODUCING RAIN
SHOWERS WITH SOME GAPS EXPECTED. THIS IS DUE TO A PAIR OF SURFACE
LOWS WITH ONE MOVING NORTHWARDS INTO CENTRAL CANADA AND THE OTHER
DOWN IN THE SOUTHERN PLAINS, WITH THE COLD FRONT STRETCHING
SOUTHWARDS FROM THE NORTHERN LOW. AS A RESULT OUR FORCING IS RATHER
WEAK EVEN WITH SOME OMEGA FROM WAA AHEAD OF THE FRONT AS WE ARE TOO
FAR REMOVED FROM THE ACTUAL LOW PRESSURE CENTERS. THIS LINE OF
SHOWERS LOOKS TO STRETCH FROM ROUGHLY DULUTH TO SIOUX FALLS BY NOON
SATURDAY, WITH SHOWERS WEAKENING INTO THE EVENING AND LARGELY
DISSIPATING OVERNIGHT INTO SUNDAY. WINDS WILL SHIFT FROM SOUTHERLY
AHEAD OF THE FRONT TO NORTHWESTERLY BY SATURDAY AFTERNOON AS THEY
ALSO WEAKEN BELOW 10MPH, WITH A CONTINUED NORTHERLY SHIFT BY SUNDAY.
WEAK HIGH PRESSURE TRIES TO SLIDE INTO THE GAP LEFT BY THE FRONT AS
IT SAGS SOUTHWARDS ON SUNDAY, HOWEVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS LOW LOOKS
TO MOVE NORTHEAST AND PUSH THE HIGH OFF TO THE NORTHWEST AS A FINAL
ROUND OF RAINFALL ARRIVES ON MONDAY MORNING. THIS FINAL ROUND LOOKS
TO BE THE MOST ROBUST OF THE GROUP AS THE SURFACE LOW WEAKENS BUT
MOVES CLOSER TO THE AREA, WITH SOUTHWESTERN AND SOUTHERN MN FAVORED
FOR THE HIGHEST RAINFALL AMOUNTS WHICH LOOK TO RANGE FROM 1/2 TO 3/4
INCH.
BEHIND THE FRONT WE RETURN TO MUCH MORE NORMAL TEMPERATURES IN THE
50S FOR HIGHS AND UPPER 30S TO 40S FOR LOWS, WHICH IS MUCH CLOSER TO
OUR NORMAL NEAR 50 DEGREE HIGH TEMPERATURES BY HALLOWEEN. HOWEVER,
ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE IS FAVORING A BRIEF PERIOD OF ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPERATURES AGAIN STARTING WEDNESDAY AS ANOTHER SYNOPTIC SCALE
SYSTEM MOVES ACROSS CENTRAL NORTH AMERICA, WITH A WARM FRONTAL
BOUNDARY BRINGING LOW LEVEL WAA ONCE AGAIN. AS OF RIGHT NOW, THIS
LOOKS TO BE MORE MID TO UPPER 50S HIGHS WITH MAYBE A FEW 60S,
INSTEAD OF THE 70S WE HAVE BEEN SEEING. SO WHILE IT IS A COOLDOWN
COMPARED TO NOW, IT STILL ENDS UP ABOVE NORMAL OVERALL. THIS WARM
STRETCH IS ALSO RELATIVELY SHORT LIVED, WITH THE COLD FRONT FROM THE
SAME SYSTEM MOVING THROUGH BY THE END OF NEXT WEEK AND RETURNING US
TO NEAR NORMAL TO END THE MONTH. WE STILL DO NOT HAVE ANY INDICATION
OF NEAR FREEZING TEMPERATURES, WHICH MEANS EVEN IF WE DO SEE
PRECIPITATION CHANCES, WE EXPECT TO SEE ONLY RAIN WITH LITTLE CHANCE
FOR ANY SNOW.
AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY/
ISSUED AT 543 PM CDT THU OCT 22 2026
HIGH AND THEN EVENTUALLY MID-LEVEL CLOUDS WILL BUILD IN AFTER
DURING FRIDAY AS OUR NEXT SYSTEM APPROACHES. A BAND OF -SHRA
WILL MOVE NORTHEAST FROM WESTERN MN INTO NORTHEASTERN MN EARLY
FRIDAY AFTERNOON INTO FRIDAY EVENING. FOR AXN, HAVE INCLUDED
PREVAILING -SHRA FROM 18-22Z BUT VISIBILITY IMPACTS WILL BE
MINIMAL UNLESS A HEAVIER CORE PASSES OVER THE TERMINAL. ALSO,
INCLUDED PROB30S AT RWF AND STC FRIDAY AFTERNOON WHERE CAMS
HAVE SOME AGREEMENT IN PLACEMENT OF -SHRA. BROKEN TO OVERCAST
MID-LEVEL CLOUDS PERSIST THROUGH FRIDAY AFTERNOON. SOUTH-
SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS REMAIN STEADY TONIGHT BUT GRADUALLY INCREASE
FRIDAY MORNING INTO THE AFTERNOON. STRONGEST WINDS ARE EXPECTED
IN WESTERN MN WHERE SUSTAINED VALUES WILL REACH 15-20 KNOTS WITH
GUSTS NEAR 30 KNOTS. WIND SPEEDS DECREASE TO THE EAST.
KMSP...THERE IS A SMALL CHANCE OF -SHRA AROUND 00Z SATURDAY BUT
CONFIDENCE IS CURRENTLY NOT HIGH ENOUGH TO INCLUDE IN THE TAF AT
THIS TIME. SOUTH-SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS WILL GUST TO 20-25 KNOTS
FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. SOUTHERLY LLWS OF 40 KNOTS IS ALSO
POSSIBLE FRIDAY EVENING BUT OPTED HOLD OFF MENTION OF THIS UNTIL
LATER TAFS.
/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/
SAT...VFR, CHC -SHRA/MVFR. WIND S 10-15G25KTS BECOMING W.
SUN...VFR. WIND N 5-10KTS.
MON...VFR, CHC -SHRA/MVFR. WIND NE 5-10 KTS.
MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MN...NONE.
WI...NONE.
DISCUSSION...TDH
AVIATION...CTG
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