840
FXUS63 KMPX 221055
AFDMPX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
555 AM CDT MON JUN 22 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS LIKELY TUESDAY. LOW CHANCES
LINGERING INTO WEDNESDAY, THEN CHANCES INCREASE LATE WEEK AND
THIS WEEKEND.
- COOLER THAN AVERAGE TEMPERATURES CONTINUE THIS WEEK, THEN
WARMER AND MORE HUMID NEXT WEEK.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 316 AM CDT MON JUN 22 2026
HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO BUILD IN THIS MORNING FROM THE NORTH.
SKIES HAVE LARGELY CLEARED FROM THE MID LEVEL CLOUDS OF
YESTERDAY AND WINDS ARE VERY LIGHT. TODAY WILL BE A PLEASANT DAY
AS TEMPERATURES RETURN CLOSER TO NORMAL AND WINDS REMAIN LIGHT.
SOME DIURNAL CU ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP AGAIN THIS AFTERNOON.
A WEAK LOW PRESSURE CENTER OVER SOUTHERN SASKATCHEWAN WILL
PROGRESS EAST TODAY THEN SOUTHEAST TO MN TUESDAY. PROGGED PWATS
CONTINUE TO SHOW AN INCREASING TREND AND MAY REACH AN INCH AND A
HALF TUESDAY AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT. QPF HAS THUS ALSO INCREASED
WITH TOTALS NOW ON EITHER SIDE OF A HALF INCH. SOME CAMS HAVE
LARGE SWATHS OF GREATER THAN AN INCH AND WILL DEPEND ON
THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT. LAPSE RATES REMAIN SUBOPTIMAL, BUT ARE
NOW NEAR 7 C/KM ACROSS WESTERN MN DURING THE AFTERNOON. DESPITE
THAT, CLOUDS AND SHOWERS WILL KEEP THE BOUNDARY LAYER STABLE AND
CAPE ALOFT IS LONG AND SKINNY. THERE IS PLENTY OF SHEAR
AVAILABLE, BUT WHETHER WE CAN SQUEEZE OUT A FEW STRONGER STORMS
WILL DEPEND ON HOW MUCH CAPE CAN DEVELOP. THIS PROFILE LOOKS
MORE LIKE A HEAVY RAIN ONE THAN A LARGE HAIL ONE, BUT SOME
STORMS COULD PRODUCE AT LEAST SOME SMALL HAIL. WIND IS NOT MUCH
OF A CONCERN WITH THE STABLE BOUNDARY LAYER AND RELATIVELY LIGHT
WINDS UP TO 600 MB.
CYCLONIC FLOW WILL CONTINUE SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES
INTO WEDNESDAY, ESPECIALLY NORTH OF I-94. COVERAGE WILL BE
HIGHEST IN NORTHERN WI/MN WHERE THE BOUNDARY LAYER WILL REMAIN
MOIST WITH CAPE UP TO 500 J/KG. SOUTH OF I-94, PROFILES ARE
DRIER AND AN INVERSION AROUND 700 MB SHOULD KEEP MUCH
DEVELOPMENT FROM OCCURRING. THE PATTERN REMAINS SIMILAR INTO
THURSDAY, BUT A LITTLE DRIER AIR FARTHER NORTH RESULTS IN LESS
INSTABILITY, AND ASIDE FROM MAYBE AN ISOLATED SHOWER, LOOKS DRY.
BY FRIDAY AND THE WEEKEND, A LARGE TROUGH DEVELOPS ACROSS THE
WESTERN U.S. WHILE A RIDGE BUILDS OVER THE SOUTHEAST. THE
RESULTANT SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT SHOULD BRING A MORE ACTIVE
PATTERN WITH AMPLE MOISTURE STREAMING NORTH FROM THE GULF.
SHORTWAVES EMBEDDED WITHIN THE SOUTHWEST MID LEVEL FLOW WILL
SPARK PERIODIC THUNDERSTORM COMPLEXES ACROSS THE CENTRAL U.S.,
LIKELY REMAINING TIED TO A WARM FRONT. THE WARM FRONT SHOULD
BEGIN TO APPROACH SUNDAY, WHICH APPEARS TO BE OUR BEST SHOT AT
SOME OF THESE.
AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY/
ISSUED AT 555 AM CDT MON JUN 22 2026
MID LEVEL CLOUDS PERIODICALLY THROUGH THE PERIOD. WINDS WILL
REMAIN AOB ~5 KTS.
KMSP...NO CONCERNS.
/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/
TUE...-SHRA/MVFR LIKELY, CHC IFR/-TSRA. WIND SE TO SW 5-10KTS.
WED...VFR, CHC PM -TSRA/MVFR. WIND NW 5-10KTS.
THU...VFR. WIND NW 5KTS.
MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MN...NONE.
WI...NONE.
DISCUSSION...BORGHOFF
AVIATION...BORGHOFF
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