018  
FXUS63 KMPX 161049  
AFDMPX  
 
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION  
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN  
549 AM CDT TUE OCT 16 2018  
   
SHORT TERM
 
(TODAY AND TONIGHT)  
ISSUED AT 328 AM CDT TUE OCT 16 2018  
 
WARM AIR ADVECTION HAS KEPT TEMPERATURES IN THE UPPER 30S AND MID  
40S DURING THE EARLY MORNING HOURS. CLOUD COVER OVER PORTIONS OF  
CENTRAL MN AND WESTERN WI HAS ALSO HELPED TO MODERATE  
TEMPERATURES. THE TROUGH EXTENDING FROM ONTARIO WILL CONTINUE  
TRAVELING EASTWARD TODAY. ITS COLD FRONT WILL PROGRESS SOUTHWARD  
THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA DURING THE LATE MORNING AND AFTERNOON.  
WINDS WILL SHIFT TO THE NORTHWEST BEHIND THE FRONT AND COLD AIR  
ADVECTION WILL CAUSE A CONTINUATION OF BREEZY CONDITIONS WITH  
WIDESPREAD 20-30 KTS WIND GUSTS EXPECTED THROUGH THE AFTERNOON.  
 
TEMPERATURES AT 850 MB WILL DROP BELOW FREEZING AGAIN BY PEAK  
HEATING, SO DAYTIME HIGHS WILL BE LIMITED TO THE LOWER 40S IN  
CENTRAL MN TO LOWER 50S IN SOUTHERN MN. SURFACE TEMPERATURES TUESDAY  
NIGHT ARE EXPECTED TO FALL INTO THE UPPER 20S TO LOWER 30S. SKIES  
WILL LIKELY STAY MOSTLY CLOUDY OVER THE NORTHERN HALF OF MN AND  
NORTHWESTERN WI TONIGHT AND GRADUALLY CLEAR WEDNESDAY MORNING AS THE  
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH MOVES OFF TO THE EAST. THE NAM AND HREF HINT AT  
STRATOCUMULUS DEVELOPING OVER SOUTHWESTERN MN WEDNESDAY MORNING. IF  
CONFIDENCE INCREASES IN THAT POSSIBILITY, THEN CLOUD COVER WILL HAVE  
TO BE INCREASED.  
   
LONG TERM
 
(WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY)  
ISSUED AT 328 AM CDT TUE OCT 16 2018  
 
FEW CHANGES IN THE EXTENDED, WITH THE BIGGEST CHANGE BEING CHANCES  
FOR PRECIP THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY MORNING LOOKING A BIT  
BETTER. OTHERWISE, ON THE WHOLE, IT LOOKS LIKE A BREEZY PERIOD, WITH  
TEMPERATURES GENERALLY BELOW NORMAL (BUT NOT OF THE 15ISH DEGREES  
BELOW NORMAL VARIETY AS SEEN MONDAY), AND SKIES THAT WILL FEATURE  
LESS IN THE WAY OF CLOUD COVER THAN WE SAW FOR THE FIRST COUPLE OF  
WEEKS OF OCTOBER.  
 
THE WARMEST DAY THIS WEEK CONTINUES TO BE THURSDAY, WHEN 925-850MB  
TEMPS WILL INCREASE TO BETWEEN 8C AND 10C. FRIDAY, DESPITE THE  
PASSAGE OF COLD FRONT DURING THE MORNING WILL BE MILDER AGAIN AS  
THE STRONGEST CAA WILL LAG THE WIND SHIFT A BIT. BOTH DAYS, BOOSTED  
BLENDED HIGHS TOWARD THE WARMER ECMWF, WITH MOST OF THE MN AREA  
EXPECTED TO SEE HIGHS IN THE 60S THURSDAY, WITH LOWER 60S STILL  
LOOKING LIKE A GOOD BET FRIDAY FOR THE TWIN CITIES ON SOUTH. COLD  
FRONT COMING THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING WILL BE BATTLING DRY AIR, BUT  
MODELS ARE SHOWING THE SHORTWAVE COMING UP FROM THE CLOSED H5 LOW  
CURRENTLY OVER THE 4-CORNERS FRIDAY MORNING BEING A BIT STRONGER  
THAN PREVIOUSLY FORECAST. FORCING WITH THIS WAVE PLUS SURFACE  
DEWPOINTS INTO THE MID 40S SHOULD PROVIDE ENOUGH MOISTURE AND LIFT  
TO GET SOME LIGHT RAIN GOING. GEFS QPF PLUMES ARE NOW SHOWING  
SEVERAL MEMBERS WITH SOME LIGHT QPF AT MSP AND EAU FRIDAY MORNING,  
SO IT IS STARTING TO LOOK BETTER TO SEE SOME LIGHT RAIN AROUND THEN  
ACROSS EASTERN MN AND WESTERN WI, THOUGH WE ARE ONLY TALKING OF QPF  
AMOUNTS OF 0.1" OR LESS.  
 
WE'LL HAVE A CANADIAN HIGH COOL US DOWN QUITE A BIT FOR SATURDAY,  
WHICH WILL LIKELY RESULT IN SOME WIND GUSTS LATE FRIDAY AFTERNOON  
INTO FRIDAY NIGHT PUSHING 40 MPH OVER OUR TYPICAL WINDY AREAS IN MN.  
HOWEVER, THIS HIGH WILL BE MOVING EAST QUICKLY, WITH RETURN FLOW  
BACK IN PLACE SATURDAY NIGHT AND WAA BACK IN BY SUNDAY, WITH HIGHS  
NEAR 60 POSSIBLE AGAIN IN FAR WESTERN MN.  
 
NEXT WEEK, WE WILL SEE YET ANOTHER DRY FRONT PASS THROUGH ON MONDAY,  
WITH AN EXPANSIVE CANADIAN HIGH DROPPING DOWN ITS WAKE. THIS HIGH  
WILL SLOWLY MOVE THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES, WITH IT BEING OUR SOURCE  
OF LOW LEVEL AIR THROUGH MOST OF THE WEEK. SO DESPITE H5 HEIGHTS  
BUILDING THROUGH THE WEEK, OUR LOW LEVEL AIR GETTING SOURCED BY THIS  
COOL AND DRY HIGH PRESSURE TO THE EAST WILL KEEP OUR TEMPERATURES  
RUNNING SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL.  
 

 
   
AVIATION
 
(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z WEDNESDAY MORNING)  
ISSUED AT 416 AM CDT TUE OCT 16 2018  
 
A COLD FRONT WILL PROGRESS SOUTHWARD THROUGH MN AND WEST CENTRAL  
WI THIS MORNING. THIS WILL CAUSE WINDS WILL SHIFT TO THE  
NORTHWEST AND REMAIN BREEZY WITH GUSTS NEAR 25-30 KTS POSSIBLE  
DURING THE LATE MORNING AND AFTERNOON. THERE WILL LIKELY BE AN  
INCREASE IN LOW TO MID-LEVEL CLOUDS BEHIND THE FRONT, BUT VFR  
CONDITIONS ARE STILL FORECAST.  
 
KMSP... VFR CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST. WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO SHIFT  
FROM WEST-SOUTHWEST TO NORTHWEST AROUND 15Z THIS MORNING. GUSTS  
NEAR 25-30 KTS ARE LIKELY THROUGH THE LATE AFTERNOON.  
 
/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/  
WED PM... VFR. WIND NW 5-10 KTS.  
THU...VFR WITH -SHRA POSSIBLE LATE. WIND SW 10-15 KTS.  
FRI...VFR. WIND SW BECOMING NW 10-15 KTS.  
SAT.. VFR. WIND NW 10-15G25 KTS  
 

 
   
MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
 
 
WI...NONE.  
MN...NONE.  

 
 

 
 
SHORT TERM...AMK  
LONG TERM...MPG  
AVIATION...AMK  
 
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.

The Nexlab MN Page
The Nexlab WI Page Main Text Page