777
FXUS63 KMPX 202342
AFDMPX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
642 PM CDT FRI MAR 20 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES OVER THE NEXT WEEK WITH RECORD HIGHS
POSSIBLE ON SATURDAY.
- NO MAJOR SYSTEMS OVER THE NEXT WEEK WITH ONLY A FEW CHANCES
FOR LIGHT PRECIPITATION.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 218 PM CDT FRI MAR 20 2026
WITH A LARGE RIDGE OVERHEAD AND EVEN THE JET STREAM TO OUR NORTH
TODAY INTO SATURDAY WILL SEE SIGNIFICANTLY WARMER THAN NORMAL
AIR MOVE INTO THE UPPER MIDWEST. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR
TEMPERATURES ON SATURDAY TO RISE INTO TEMPERATURE MORE TYPICAL
OF EARLY JUNE THAN LATE MARCH. CHECK OUT THE CLIMATE SECTION
BELOW FOR HOW LIKELY WE ARE TO SEE RECORDS BROKEN. THIS WARMTH
COMES TO AN END AS THE JET STREAM MOVES BACK TO THE SOUTH ON
SUNDAY. THIS SHIFT WILL BRING TEMPERATURES DOWN CLOSER TO NORMAL
WITH HIGHS IN THE 40S (NORMALS IN THE LOWER 40S). TEMPERATURES
THEN SLOWING WARM THROUGHOUT MIDDLE OF THE WEEK UNDER A ZONAL
FLOW. STILL UNCERTAIN HOW MUCH WE WARM BY THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK
WITH ABOUT A 20 DEGREE SPREAD BETWEEN THE NBM25 AND NBM75 FOR
HIGHS. THIS IS DUE TO A SPREAD IN THE ENSEMBLE MEMBERS AND
SYSTEMS IN HOW FAR NORTH THE NEXT RIDGE GETS. BEHIND THIS
ANOTHER COOL DOWN AS THE JET STREAM DIGS FARTHER SOUTH, BUT ONLY
TO NEAR NORMAL AGAIN BY THE END OF THE WEEK.
ON THE PRECIPITATION FRONT THERE ARE NOT MANY CHANCES AS THESE
AIR MASSES MOVE THROUGH THE UPPER MIDWEST AS MOISTURE REMAINS A
CHALLENGE. THE PERIOD OF HIGH CONFIDENCE IN MOISTURE WILL BE
SATURDAY MORNING WHICH COULD CONTRIBUTE TO SOME RADIATION FOG
DEPENDENT ON HOW THE WINDS END UP. EARLY SUNDAY MORNING COULD
SEE A CHANCE FOR SOME LIGHT PRECIPITATION BUT THERE IS A LARGE
SPREAD BETWEEN SYSTEMS WITH THE ENS FAIRLY CONFIDENT, BUT THE
GEFS AND GEPS STAYING DRY. THEY ARE ALL MORE CONFIDENT MORE INTO
NORTHEAST MINNESOTA AND THE SPREAD IS IN HOW FAR SOUTH IT
EXTENDS. THIS MAKES SENSE AS THE MAIN AREA OF FORCING IS FARTHER
NORTH SUCH THAT IT WILL BE HARDER TO GET AS MUCH DOWN SOUTH.
THEN WE MOVE INTO EARLY WEEK HIGH PRESSURE BEFORE SOME MORE
LIGHT CHANCES MIDWEEK. STILL A LOT OF SPREAD MIDWEEK AS FOR HOW
MUCH THIS IMPACTS US. THIS WILL DEPEND ON HOW THE TROUGH AND JET
STREAK EVOLVE AS THERE REMAINS SIGNIFICANT SPREAD HERE WITHIN
ENSEMBLE MEMBERS AND SYSTEMS, JUST AS MENTIONED FOR TEMPERATURES
ABOVE. AS BOTH OF THESE PRECIPITATION CHANCES COME WITH AIR
MASS CHANGES FROM WARMER TO COLD IT COULD VERY WELL SEE SOME
SNOW MIX IN, ESPECIALLY ON THE BACK END OF EITHER EVENT.
AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SUNDAY/
ISSUED AT 641 PM CDT FRI MAR 20 2026
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED AT ALL TAF SITES THROUGHOUT THIS
DURATION. ONLY PASSING HIGH CLOUDS OF VARYING COVERAGE ARE
EXPECTED. WINDS WILL BE THE ONLY TRICKY ASPECT, TIMING THE SHIFT
WITH THE PASSAGE OF A WEAK COLD FRONT DRIFTING ACROSS THE REGION
TOMORROW.
KMSP...NO ADDITIONAL CONCERNS.
/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/
SUN...CHC MVFR CIGS EARLY. WIND N 10-15 KTS.
MON...VFR. WIND SW TO S 5-10 KTS.
TUE...VFR. WIND N 5-15 KTS.
CLIMATE
ISSUED AT 1222 PM CDT FRI MAR 20 2026
WITH THE WARMEST TEMPERATURES SO FAR THIS YEAR FORECAST ON
SATURDAY, MARCH 21 HERE ARE THE COMPARISONS BETWEEN RECORD HIGHS
AND OUR FORECAST HIGHS FOR OUR PRIMARY CLIMATE SITES.
SITE | FORECAST HIGH | RECORD HIGH
-----------------------------------
MSP | 76 | 76 (1938)
STC | 72 | 75 (1911)
EAU | 73 | 77 (1911)
MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MN...NONE.
WI...NONE.
DISCUSSION...NDC
AVIATION...JPC
CLIMATE...NDC
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