522
FXUS63 KMPX 130725
AFDMPX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
225 AM CDT SAT JUN 13 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES THIS WEEKEND INTO NEXT WEEK.
- AFTER A DRY WEEKEND, A MORE ACTIVE PATTERN WITH RAIN CHANCES
RETURNS NEXT WEEK.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 225 AM CDT SAT JUN 13 2026
THIS WEEKEND... THE COLD FRONT CONTINUES TO SLOWLY MOVES ACROSS
MINNESOTA AND WISCONSIN TODAY. IT HAS ALREADY PASSED THROUGH
MUCH OF THE AREA, BUT SOME PARTS OF SOUTHERN MINNESOTA COULD
STILL SEE SOME RAIN THIS MORNING INTO EARLY AFTERNOON. BY THIS
EVENING THE FRONT WILL BE FULLY PAST THE AREA. IN THE POST
FRONTAL AIRMASS WE WILL SEE COOLER TEMPERATURES WITH HIGHS IN
THE MID 60S TO MID 70S (BELOW NORMALS IN THE UPPER 70S) AND SOME
GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS. THIS AIRMASS WILL REMAIN OVER US ON
SUNDAY WITH HIGHS ONCE AGAIN BELOW NORMAL AND AROUND 70. THE
AIRMASS WILL NOT JUST BE COOLER, BUT ALSO DRIER. SO IN ADDITION
TO NO RAIN CHANCES IT WILL ALSO BRING RH VALUES DOWN TO NEAR 30.
RECENT RAINFALL HAS FIRE DANGER LOW ACROSS AS BOTH MINNESOTA
AND WISCONSIN DNR REPORT LOW FIRE DANGER. SO THAT WILL LIMIT
FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS.
NEXT WEEK... AFTER A COOL AND DRY WEEKEND A MORE ACTIVE PERIOD
WILL ARRIVE NEXT WEEK. WE GENERALLY LOOK TO REMAIN STUCK IN
NORTHWEST FLOW, BUT THE GLOBAL DETERMINISTIC MODELS SHOW THAT A
FEW SHORTWAVES WITHIN THIS FLOW APPEAR LIKELY NEXT WEEK. THIS
WILL BE THE SOURCE OF LIFT FOR OUR RAIN CHANCES NEXT WEEK. LOOKING
TOWARDS TO GLOBAL ENSEMBLE SYSTEMS THERE ARE CLUSTERS AROUND
LATE MONDAY INTO EARLY TUESDAY, TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY,
AND THE END OF THE WEEK (LATE FRIDAY INTO THE NEXT WEEKEND). IN
GENERAL STILL QUITE A BIT OF SPREAD, BUT HE BEST AGREEMENT AMONG
THE SYSTEMS IS FOR THE WEDNESDAY EVENT. THIS ALSO MATCHES UP
WITH THE NBM AS THIS IS WHERE POPS ARE MAXIMIZED. THE MODELS ARE
PICKING UP ON THIS AS A HIGHER CHANCE AS THIS IS WHEN MOISTURE
LOOKS BETTER, WITH THE POSSIBLE FAILURE MODE FOR THE OTHER TWO
CHANCES BEING DRY AIR. THUS THE NBM SETUP OF CHANCE POPS FOR
THE FIRST AND THIRD, WITH LIKELY FOR THE MID WEEK EVENT SEEM
REASONABLE. BEING STUCK IN NORTHWEST FLOW ALSO MEANS THAT THE
COOLER TEMPERATURES ARE LIKELY TO STICK AROUND. THERE COULD BE
SOME CHANGES WITH A WARMING TREND NEAR THE END OF THE NEXT WEEK
BASED ON ENSEMBLE TRENDS.
AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SUNDAY/
ISSUED AT 1220 AM CDT SAT JUN 13 2026
EARLY THIS MORNING THE LAST FEW OF THE SHOWERS ARE MOVING ACROSS
SOUTHERN MINNESOTA AND WESTERN WISCONSIN. SOME PERIODS OF MVFR
ARE EXPECTED AT MKT AND EAU AS IN THE FIRST FEW HOURS OF THIS
PERIOD AS THE FINAL SHOWERS MOVE THROUGH. OVERALL THUNDER
ACTIVITY HAS DECREASED SIGNIFICANTLY OVER THE PAST FEW HOURS.
STILL A SMALL CHANCE FOR A RUMBLE AT MKT, BUT IT WAS TOO LOW FOR
INCLUSION IN THE TEMPO THERE. LOOKING AHEAD TO TOMORROW THE MAIN
IMPACT WILL BE DIURNAL NORTHWEST WINDS GUSTING UP TO A LITTLE
OVER 20 KNOTS.
KMSP...NO ADDITIONAL CONCERNS.
/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/
SUN...VFR. WIND NW AT 10-20 KTS.
MON...VFR/CHC MVFR -SHRA LATE. WIND NW AT 10-20 KTS.
TUE...VFR/CHC MVFR -SHRA LATE. WIND NW AT 10-20 KTS.
MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MN...NONE.
WI...NONE.
DISCUSSION...NDC
AVIATION...NDC
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