612
FXUS63 KMPX 300010
AFDMPX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
710 PM CDT THU MAY 29 2025
KEY MESSAGES
- ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS THIS AFTERNOON.
- AIR QUALITY CONCERNS GROWING AS WILDFIRE SMOKE DRIFTS SOUTH
TOWARDS THE AREA.
- WARMING TREND THROUGH THE WEEKEND, WITH HIGHS NEAR 90 ON MONDAY.
- ACTIVE WEATHER RETURNS WITH SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES EARLY
NEXT WEEK.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 218 PM CDT THU MAY 29 2025
SHOWER CHANCES TODAY...AFTERNOON KMPX RADAR IMAGERY CAPTURES
ISOLATED SHOWERS MOVING FROM NORTHEAST TO SOUTHWEST ACROSS
CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN MN. SATELLITE IMAGERY CAPTURES BLOSSOMING CU,
REFLECTED BY EFFICIENT MIXING PER RAP FORECAST SOUNDINGS. WITH A
FEW HUNDRED JOULES OF MUCAPE, STEEP LOW-LEVEL LAPSE RATES, AND THE
LINGERING INFLUENCE FROM THE DEPARTING UPPER-LOW IN PLACE, WE'LL
MAINTAIN 30-40% POPS FOR DIURNAL SHOWERS ACROSS MUCH OF OUR
COVERAGE AREA. CAN'T RULE OUT A FEW RUMBLES OF THUNDER WITH THIS
ACTIVITY. WORKING AGAINST HIGHER COVERAGE OF PRECIPITATION CHANCES
IS DRY LOWEST 5-8K FEET OF THE COLUMN. FOR THIS REASON, MANY
AREAS WILL REMAIN DRY AS TEMPERATURES CLIMB INTO THE MID 70S FOR
AFTERNOON HIGHS. SHOWERS DIMINISH THIS EVENING FOLLOWING THE LOSS
OF DAYTIME HEATING. WE ANTICIPATE ANOTHER DIURNAL CU FIELD ACROSS
EASTERN MN/WESTERN WI TOMORROW, THOUGH THE BEST CHANCE FOR
ISOLATED SHOWERS OR A STORM WILL BE EAST OF THE MN/WI BORDER.
WILDFIRE SMOKE...A PLUME OF CANADIAN WILDFIRE SMOKE CAN BE SEEN
MOVING SOUTH ALONG THE INTERNATIONAL BORDER ON GOES-EAST'S GEO-
COLOR IMAGERY. HI-RES GUIDANCE HAS STARTED TO DISPLAY A BETTER
HANDLE ON THE EVOLUTION OF THE SMOKE PLUME OVER THE COMING DAYS--
HOWEVER, THIS DOES MEAN POTENTIAL AIR QUALITY CONCERNS FOR PORTIONS
OF THE FORECAST AREA. WE'VE BEEN IN CONTACT WITH MPCA REGARDING AIR
QUALITY HEADLINES AHEAD OF THE "POTENTIALLY SIGNIFICANT LONG
DURATION.." IMPACTS TO THE AIR QUALITY. FOR NOW, THE MAIN FORECAST
CHALLENGE PER MPCA IS EVALUATING THE DEGREE BY WHICH THE HIGHER
CONCENTRATION OF SMOKE SINKS TO THE SURFACE (THUS HOW POOR THE AIR
QUALITY WILL BE). FOR THIS REASON MPCA IS OPTING TO FINE TUNE THE
DETAILS TONIGHT INTO TOMORROW PRIOR TO THE ISSUANCE OF AIR
QUALITY PRODUCTS. OUTSIDE OF THE GROWING AIR QUALITY CONCERNS,
THE DRY WEEKEND WEATHER SHOULD SET THE STAGE FOR VIVID RED/BURNT
ORANGE SMOKY SUNRISE/SUNSETS.
HEATING UP...THE DOMINANT WEATHER FEATURE THROUGH THE WEEKEND WILL
BE THE EXPANSION OF A RIDGE ACROSS THE CENTRAL PORTION OF THE
COUNTRY. HEIGHT RISES AND THE APPROACH OF WARM MID-LEVEL AIRMASS
WILL PRODUCE A WARMING TREND THROUGH THE WEEKEND. IT ALL STARTS
TOMORROW, WITH HIGHS IN THE LOWER 80S FOR MUCH OF THE AREA. EACH DAY
WILL RUN A LITTLE WARMER, WITH HIGHS IN THE MID 80S SATURDAY, THE
MID TO UPPER 80S SUNDAY, AND NEAR 90 ON MONDAY (LOWER 90S ACROSS
WESTERN MN). THIS WILL GENERALLY BE A "DRIER" HEAT WITH DEW POINTS
IN THE UPPER 40S/LOWER 50S THROUGH SUNDAY. HOWEVER, MOISTURE BEGINS
TO INCREASE MONDAY & TUESDAY, WHICH FROM A SENSIBLE WEATHER
PERSPECTIVE SHOULD MAKE IT FEEL MORE HUMID. ORDINARILY THIS WOULD BE
A NICE SETUP FOR WEEKEND PLANS TO OPEN JUNE, HOWEVER WE WILL HAVE TO
CONTEND WITH THE AIR QUALITY/SMOKE CONCERNS DISCUSSED ABOVE.
STORM CHANCES RETURN...THE WEEKEND WILL RUN MOSTLY DRY, THOUGH WILL
CARRY ISOLATED POPS SATURDAY AFTERNOON AS A COMPACT SHORTWAVE DIGS
SOUTHEAST AHEAD OF THE ADVANCING RIDGE AXIS. GREATER CHANCES FOR
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE INTRODUCED TO OPEN THE WORK WEEK, AS
THE UPPER-LEVEL PATTERN BECOME MORE UNSETTLED AND THE RIDGE BEGINS
TO BREAK DOWN. SPC HAS INTRODUCED A DAY 5 (MONDAY) 15% RISK AREA
EXTENDING FROM THE DAKOTAS INTO WEST CENTRAL MN. USING THE ECMWF
LIGHTNING DENSITY PARAMETER AS A FIRST GUESS, IT LOOKS LIKE MONDAY'S
SCENARIO FOR DEEP, ORGANIZED CONVECTION WILL GENERALLY SETUP WEST
ACROSS THE DAKOTAS, WITH PERHAPS STRONGER CONVECTION EXTENDING
EASTWARD INTO WESTERN MN. A COLD FRONT WILL SPAN FROM WEST TO EAST
ACROSS THE UPPER MIDWEST TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY, WHICH LOOKS TO
PROVIDE RENEWED CHANCES FOR CONVECTION TUESDAY AFTERNOON. THIS
FEATURE WILL BRING THE BEST CHANCE FOR CONVECTION ACROSS MN/WESTERN
WI, SAY TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. DETAILS REGARDING TIMING,
MOISTURE RETURN, AND INSTABILITY REMAIN IN FLUX AND WILL NEED
TO BE BETTER DEFINED BEFORE CONFIDENCE INCREASES IN A SEVERE
WEATHER THREAT. NONETHELESS, THE ML PRODUCTS CONTINUE TO
ADVERTISE LOWER PROBABILITIES TUESDAY. COOLER TEMPERATURES
FOLLOW (70S) FOR THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.
AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SATURDAY/
ISSUED AT 703 PM CDT THU MAY 29 2025
MAIN CONCERN IS THE SMALL CHANCE (10 TO 20%) FOR A SHOWER OR A
STRAY THUNDERSTORM FOR THE FIRST COUPLE OF HOURS THIS EVENING,
BUT THESE WILL DIMINISH TOWARD SUNSET AND COMPLETELY GO AWAY
OVERNIGHT. OTHERWISE EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS WITH NORTHWEST WINDS
THROUGHOUT. GUST COULD INCREASE TO NEAR 20 KTS LATE MORNING ON
FRIDAY INTO THE EARLY EVENING.
KMSP...SHOWERS DIMINISHING THIS EVENING, WITH VFR CONDITIONS
EXPECTED OVERNIGHT AND FRIDAY.
/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/
SAT...VFR. WIND NW 5-15KTS.
SUN...VFR. WIND W 5-10KTS.
MON...VFR. WIND SW 5-10G20KTS.|
MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MN...NONE.
WI...NONE.
DISCUSSION...STRUS
AVIATION...JRB
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