193
FXUS63 KMPX 221118
AFDMPX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
618 AM CDT SAT AUG 22 2026
KEY MESSAGES
-PLEASANT THIS WEEKEND WITH SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES.
-LOW CHANCES FOR THUNDERSTORMS OVERNIGHT SUNDAY, & AGAIN ON
TUESDAY.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 119 AM CDT SAT AUG 22 2026
A PLEASANT & QUIET WEEKEND IS EXPECTED AS HIGH PRESSURE
CONTINUES TO SETTLE OVER THE UPPER MIDWEST. MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES
ARE EXPECTED BOTH SATURDAY & SUNDAY WITH HIGHS GENERALLY IN THE
UPPER 70S TO AROUND 80, WHILE LOWER DEW POINTS WILL MAKE FOR
COMFORTABLE LATE-AUGUST CONDITIONS. NORTHWEST WINDS WILL BECOME
BREEZY THIS MORNING WITH GUSTS AROUND 20-25 MPH BEFORE WINDS
DIMINISH AFTER SUNSET. LIGHTER WINDS RETURN SUNDAY AS THE
SURFACE HIGH MOVES OVERHEAD. CLEAR SKIES & LIGHT WINDS WILL ALSO
ALLOW FOR GOOD RADIATIONAL COOLING AT NIGHT, WITH LOWS
GENERALLY IN THE 50S AND A FEW UPPER 40S POSSIBLE ACROSS THE
TYPICAL COOLER LOCATIONS OF CENTRAL MINNESOTA & WESTERN
WISCONSIN.
THE SURFACE HIGH BEGINS SHIFTING EAST MONDAY, WITH SOUTHERLY FLOW
RETURNING AHEAD OF THE NEXT WEAK COLD FRONT. THIS FRONT LOOKS
TO MOVE THROUGH SOMETIME LATE MONDAY INTO TUESDAY, BRINGING OUR
NEXT CHANCE FOR SCATTERED SHOWERS & THUNDERSTORMS. MOISTURE
RETURN AHEAD OF THE FRONT LOOKS FAIRLY LIMITED THOUGH, AND
CONSIDERABLE SPREAD REMAINS WITHIN THE ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE
REGARDING PRECIPITATION COVERAGE, SO RAIN CHANCES REMAIN FAIRLY
LOW AT THIS POINT. THE FIRST ROUND OF THUNDERSTORMS LOOKS
POSSIBLE LATE SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY MORNING, BUT GUIDANCE
GENERALLY KEEP THE SHORTWAVE & BULK OF THE PRECIPITATION OFF TO
THE WEST OVER THE DAKOTAS. ANOTHER COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE
REGION ON TUESDAY, BUT CURRENT MODEL TIMING CONSENSUS BRINGS THE
FRONT THROUGH DURING THE EARLY MORNING HOURS, WHICH WOULD MEAN
THAT ANY WIDESPREAD CONVECTION & APPRECIABLE RAINFALL COULD BE
LIMITED. OTHERWISE, TEMPERATURES LOOK TO REMAIN STEADY THROUGH
NEXT WEEK WITH HIGHS GENERALLY AROUND 80 & LOWS IN THE 50S TO
LOW 60S. OVERALL, WERE LOOKING AT A FAIRLY QUIET & SEASONABLE
STRETCH OF LATE- AUGUST WEATHER OVER THE NEXT SEVEN DAYS.
AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY/
ISSUED AT 618 AM CDT SAT AUG 22 2026
NO MAJOR CHANGES TO THE 12Z TAF PACKAGE, AS VFR CONDITIONS ARE
FORECAST TO PREVAIL ACROSS ALL TERMINALS THROUGH THE PERIOD. THE
MAIN WEATHER CONCERN WILL THE INTENSIFICATION OF NORTHWESTERLY
WINDS THIS MORNING. PEAK GUSTS ARE FORECAST TO APPROACH 25KTS AT
THE EASTERN MN/WESTERN WI TERMINALS. WINDS WILL DIMINISH THIS
EVENING AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS EASTWARD AND DIURNAL
MIXING CEASES. COULD SEE FEW-SCT CUMULUS AROUND 5K FEET THROUGH
THE AFTERNOON.
KMSP...NO ADDITIONAL CONCERNS.
/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/
MON...VFR, CHC -SHRA LATE NIGHT. WIND SE 5-10 KTS.
TUE...VFR, CHC -SHRA EARLY. WIND SW 10-15 KTS.
WED...VFR. WIND NW 10-15KTS.
MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MN...NONE.
WI...NONE.
DISCUSSION...ETA
AVIATION...STRUS
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