523
FXUS63 KMPX 151947
AFDMPX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
247 PM CDT THU OCT 15 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- BREEZY NORTHWEST WINDS TONIGHT, WITH GUSTS TO 45 MPH POSSIBLE
IN WESTERN AND SOUTHERN MN.
- COOLER TEMPERATURES CONTINUE THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING WHEN A
WIDESPREAD FROST/FREEZE IS EXPECTED. A FREEZE WATCH HAS BEEN
ISSUED FOR THE ENTIRE AREA.
- TEMPERATURES TURN BACK TO ABOVE NORMAL NEXT WEEK WITH FEW
CHANCES FOR ADDITIONAL RAIN, WITH INCREASED FIRE WEATHER
CONCERNS RETURNING THIS WEEKEND.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 246 PM CDT THU OCT 15 2026
RAINFALL MOVING ACROSS THE AREA IS PRETTY MUCH COMING IN AS
FORECAST, WITH A BROAD DEFORMATION BAND OF RAIN TO THE NORTHWEST OF
A SURFACE LOW THAT IS NEAR THE IA/MO/IL BORDER THIS AFTERNOON.
RAINFALL AMOUNTS ARE ON TRACK TO COME IN IN THE 0.75" TO 1" RANGE
FROM DOWN AROUND ALBERT LEA UP TOWARD CHIPPEWA FALLS/EAU CLAIRE,
AROUND 0.5" IN THE TWIN CITIES, DOWN TO AROUND 0.1" BY THE TIME YOU
GET TO ST. CLOUD. THIS RAIN SHIELD WILL CLEAR THE EAU CLAIRE AREA
BETWEEN 10PM AND MIDNIGHT, TO BE REPLACED BY A TIGHT PRESSURE
GRADIENT AND STRONG LOW LEVEL CAA. THIS WILL ALLOW THE WINDS TO KICK
UP, WITH WIND GUSTS UP OVER 40 MPH EXPECTED WEST OF I-35 FROM
ROUGHLY MIDNIGHT TO NOON ON FRIDAY BEFORE THEY START TO SLOWLY
SETTLE DOWN IN THE AFTERNOON. BESIDES THE WINDS, FORCING FROM THE
NORTHERN STREAM SHORTWAVE, COMBINED WITH INSTABILITY FROM THE
DIFFERENTIAL CAA, WILL RESULT IN A BATCH OF SHOWERS MOVING SOUTH
THROUGH MN AROUND MIDNIGHT (AS SEEN WITH THE HRRR). AFTER THAT, IT'S
LOOKING LIKE THIS MAY BE THE LAST CHANCE FOR RAIN WE HAVE FOR THE
NEXT 7+ DAYS.
FRIDAY, HIGH PRESSURE WILL COME OUT OF THE ROCKIES AND SINK
SOUTHEAST TOWARD THE SOUTHERN PLAINS. THE RIDGE AXIS WILL BE
CENTERED OVER THE MPX AREA BETWEEN 00Z AND 06Z SATURDAY (7PM FRIDAY
TO 1AM SATURDAY) AND WILL ALREADY BE OFF TO OUR SOUTHEAST BY
SATURDAY MORNING. THIS LEADS TO SOME UNCERTAINTY WITH LOWS SATURDAY
MORNING, ESPECIALLY OVER WESTERN AND CENTRAL MN, WHERE RETURN FLOW
AND SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL START BLOWING DURING THE NIGHT, WITH LOWS
LIKELY BEING ACHIEVED NEAR MIDNIGHT, WITH TEMPERATURES REMAINING
STEADY OR RISING THROUGH THE REST OF THE NIGHT. STILL, NBM
PROBABILITY FOR A LOW OF 32 OR LESS IS BASICALLY 100% NORTHEAST OF I-
94 AND 50-75% SOUTHWEST OF I-94 (FOR THE CORE OF THE TWIN CITIES
METRO, THE FREEZE PROBABILITY DROPS TO 20% THANKS TO THE URBAN HEAT
ISLAND), SO WE WENT AHEAD WITH A FREEZE WATCH FOR THE ENTIRE AREA
FRIDAY NIGHT/SATURDAY MORNING. GROWING SEASON INDEX (GSI) VALUES ARE
CURRENTLY UP AROUND 0.8, WHICH INDICATES STRESSED, BUT STILL ACTIVE
VEGETATION. BY THURSDAY NEXT WEEK, THE GSI VALUES ARE FORECAST TO
FALL BELOW 0.5, INDICATING THAT THIS BRIEF COLD PUSH COMBINED WITH
DECREASING DAYLIGHT WILL BE ENOUGH TO SHUT DOWN THE GROWING SEASON
FOR 2026.
FOR THE REST OF THE FORECAST, IT'S BACK TO RIDGING AND DRY PACIFIC
AIRMASSES. ONE THING WE'VE SEEN IS THAT MODELS ARE HOLDING THIS
RIDGING PATTERN IN PLACE LONGER, WITH ANY SORT OF BREAKDOWN IN THE
PATTERN NOT COMING UNTIL NEXT WEEKEND OR EARLY THE FOLLOWING WEEK.
IT WILL STILL BE COOL ON SATURDAY THANKS TO THE COLD START, BUT FROM
SUNDAY THROUGH NEXT WEEK, IT WILL BE HIGHS IN THE MID 60S TO LOWER
70S AS OUR EXCEPTIONALLY WARM OCTOBER WEATHER RETURNS AFTER THIS
BRIEF COOL DOWN. THE ONE THING TO WATCH STARTING SATURDAY AND
CONTINUING THROUGH NEXT WEEK WILL BE THE POTENTIAL FOR ELEVATED FIRE
WEATHER CONDITIONS. RIGHT NOW, THE DAY WITH THE LOWEST DEWPOINTS
ALSO HAS OUR COOLEST TEMPERATURES, WITH THE WARMER TEMPERATURES NEXT
WEEK COMING WITH HIGHER DEWPOINTS. THIS ALL WORKS OUT TO RHS
REMAINING ABOVE CRITICAL THRESHOLDS (25%), BUT WE'LL HAVE TO KEEP A
CLOSE EYE ON RHS GIVEN THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME BREEZY PERIODS TO
GO WITH THIS UNSEASONABLY MILD AIRMASS.
AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SATURDAY/
ISSUED AT 119 PM CDT THU OCT 15 2026
LIGHT RAIN CONTINUES INTO THIS EVENING WITH MAINLY MVFR
VISIBILITY & CEILINGS EXPECTED. BETTER CHANCES FOR IFR
CONDITIONS EXITS ACROSS SOUTHERN MINNESOTA & WESTERN WISCONSIN.
THE RAIN ENDS FROM WEST TO EAST LATE THIS AFTERNOON & EVENING,
BUT MVFR CEILINGS STICK AROUND THROUGH MOST OF TOMORROW
MORNING. ANOTHER ROUND OF ISOLATED TO SCATTERED RAIN SHOWERS IS
LIKELY OVERNIGHT BUT ANY MINOR IMPACTS TO VISIBILITY WILL BE
BRIEF.
GUSTY WINDS WILL BE AN ISSUE OVERNIGHT & ESPECIALLY TOMORROW
MORNING. NORTHWEST WINDS AROUND 10 KTS THIS AFTERNOON INCREASE
THIS EVENING WITH GUSTS MAINLY TO 20-25 KTS THROUGH TONIGHT.
SPEEDS INCREASE OVERNIGHT INTO EARLY TOMORROW MORNING & BECOME
ORE NORTHERLY THROUGH TOMORROW MORNING. SUSTAINED WINDS OF
20-25 KTS ARE LIKELY WITH GUSTS OF 30-35 KTS. A FEW GUSTS TO 40
KTS ARE POSSIBLE, ESPECIALLY ACROSS WESTERN MINNESOTA. WINDS
WILL REMAIN GUSTY INTO THE AFTERNOON BUT SPEEDS DECREASE TO
AROUND 20 KTS.
KMSP...LIGHT RAIN CONTINUES UNTIL 7-8 PM WITH MVFR CEILINGS &
VISIBILITY PREVAILING. BRIEF PERIODS OF IFR ARE POSSIBLE THIS
AFTERNOON. CEILINGS LIFT & BREAK UP BRIEFLY THIS EVENING BUT
RETURN TO MVFR OVERNIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING. WIND SPEEDS
PICK UP THIS EVENING BUT THE MAIN IMPACTS BEGIN EARLY TOMORROW
MORNING WHEN NORTHERLY WINDS GUST TO 30-35 KTS. SPEEDS WILL
DECREASE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON BUT STILL GUST TO 20-25 KTS.
/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/
SAT...VFR. WIND SW 15G25KTS.
SUN...VFR. WIND SW 10G20KTS.
MON...VFR. WIND VRB 5KTS.
MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MN...FREEZE WATCH FROM LATE FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING
FOR ANOKA-BENTON-BLUE EARTH-BROWN-CARVER-CHIPPEWA-CHISAGO-
DAKOTA-DOUGLAS-FARIBAULT-FREEBORN-GOODHUE-HENNEPIN-ISANTI-
KANABEC-KANDIYOHI-LAC QUI PARLE-LE SUEUR-MARTIN-MCLEOD-
MEEKER-MILLE LACS-MORRISON-NICOLLET-POPE-RAMSEY-REDWOOD-
RENVILLE-RICE-SCOTT-SHERBURNE-SIBLEY-STEARNS-STEELE-
STEVENS-SWIFT-TODD-WASECA-WASHINGTON-WATONWAN-WRIGHT-
YELLOW MEDICINE.
WI...FREEZE WATCH FROM LATE FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING
FOR BARRON-CHIPPEWA-DUNN-EAU CLAIRE-PEPIN-PIERCE-POLK-
RUSK-ST. CROIX.
DISCUSSION...MPG
AVIATION...ETA
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