297
FXUS63 KMPX 241107
AFDMPX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
607 AM CDT WED JUN 24 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE LIKELY ACROSS CENTRAL
MN AND WESTERN WI TODAY.
- A MAJOR PATTERN SHIFT WILL OCCUR THIS WEEKEND. EXTREME HEAT
AND HUMIDITY ARE EXPECTED TO BUILD SUNDAY INTO NEXT WEEK.
HIGHS IN THE MID TO UPPER 90S AND DEW POINTS IN THE 70S WILL
SEND HEAT INDICES TO DANGEROUS LEVELS MONDAY.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 259 AM CDT WED JUN 24 2026
AREAS OF DENSE FOG HAVE DEVELOPED EARLY THIS MORNING ON THE
SOUTHERN FRINGES OF LOW STRATUS ACROSS CENTRAL MN INTO WEST
CENTRAL WI. WINDS WILL SHIFT WEST AND INCREASE DURING THE NEXT
FEW HOURS ACROSS WESTERN MN, WHICH SHOULD BRING IMPROVING
CONDITIONS. THE STRATUS IS RETREATING BACK TO THE NORTH FARTHER
EAST ACROSS EAST CENTRAL MN. THIS MAY ALLOW FOR FOG TO BECOME
MORE WIDESPREAD WITH TIME, BUT IT REMAINS LOCALIZED ENOUGH FOR
NOW THAT A DENSE FOG ADVISORY IS NOT YET NECESSARY.
CYCLONIC FLOW WILL CONTINUE SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES
TODAY EAST OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER. COVERAGE WILL BE HIGHEST IN
WI AND NORTHERN AND CENTRAL MN WHERE THE BOUNDARY LAYER WILL
REMAIN MOIST AND CAPE BUILDS UP TO 300-500 J/KG. PROFILES ARE
DRIER ACROSS SOUTHERN AND WESTERN MN WITH AN INVERSION AROUND
700 MB. THOSE FACTORS SHOULD KEEP ANY SHOWERS OR STORMS FROM
FORMING.
POPS HAVE BEEN DROPPED FROM FRIDAY AND SATURDAY. SOUTHEAST
SURFACE FLOW WILL KEEP A RELATIVELY DRY AIRMASS IN PLACE AND A
WARM FRONT WILL REMAIN SOUTH ACROSS THE MID MS VALLEY TO
CENTRAL PLAINS. THE WARM FRONT WILL APPROACH SATURDAY NIGHT. A
STRENGTHENING LLJ AND RAPID MOISTURE INCREASE WITH STEEPENING
MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES AND SUFFICIENT DEEP LAYER SHEAR WILL
RESULT IN INCREASING THUNDERSTORM CHANCES. THOSE STORMS MAY
LINGER INTO SUNDAY MORNING BEFORE THE WARM FRONT LIFTS NORTH.
THE PASSAGE OF THE WARM FRONT SUNDAY WILL RESULT IN A MAJOR
PATTERN CHANGE NEXT WEEK. A STOUT EML AND VERY WARM
TEMPERATURES ALOFT (+16C OR WARMER AT 700 MB) WILL ESSENTIALLY
PROVIDE AN IMPOSSIBLE CAP TO BREAK IN THE WARM SECTOR SUNDAY
AFTERNOON INTO MONDAY. POPS HAVE BEEN REDUCED SOME, BUT MAY NEED
TO BE REDUCED MORE IN COMING FORECASTS. PROGGED TEMPERATURES
HAVE INCREASED SUNDAY AND MONDAY. DEPENDING ON THE TIMING OF THE
FRONT AND THE DECREASE OF CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY EARLY IN THE DAY,
HIGHS SUNDAY MAY REACH THE MID 90S ACROSS SOUTHERN AND WESTERN
MN. BY MONDAY, THERMAL RIDGING CHARACTERIZED BY 925 MB TEMPS OF
+29 TO +32C APPEAR LIKELY TO ENGULF MUCH OF CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN
MN AND WESTERN WI. THIS IS AN INCREASE OVER YESTERDAY BY 1 TO
2C. HIGHS IN THE UPPER 90S TO LOWER 100S CAN BE EXPECTED WITH
THIS TYPE OF AIRMASS. ALL DETERMINISTIC GUIDANCE NOW BRING HIGHS
NEARING 100 ACROSS SOUTHERN AND WESTERN MN, INCLUDING THE TWIN
CITIES. IN ADDITION, DEW POINTS WILL RISE INTO THE LOW TO MID
70S, ESPECIALLY ACROSS EASTERN MN AND WI, POTENTIALLY PUSHING
HEAT INDICES INTO THE MID 100S. DEEPER MIXING ACROSS WESTERN MN
AND A MORE ARID CLIMATE IN GENERAL SHOULD ALLOW DEW POINTS TO
FALL SEVERAL DEGREES SHORT OF THOSE LEVELS, BUT THAT MAY ALSO
ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO CLIMB EVEN HIGHER. IN FACT, GUIDANCE
INDICATES 925 MB TEMPS NEAR THE SD BORDER AS HOT AS +34C, WHICH
WOULD SUPPORT HIGHS IN THE MID 100S. MONDAY IS EXPECTED TO BE
THE FIRST DANGEROUS DAY FOR HEAT OF THE SEASON, BUT MAY ONLY BE
ONE OF MANY NEXT WEEK.
GUIDANCE HAS BEEN CONSISTENT WITH BRINGING A WEAKENING COLD
FRONT INTO WESTERN MN MONDAY EVENING. THE CAP SHOULD EASE AS
THE EML WEAKENS AND EXITS TO THE NORTHEAST LATE IN THE DAY.
RICH THETA-E AIR WILL PROVIDE A VERY UNSTABLE AIRMASS. SEVERE
THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT IS POSSIBLE WELL INTO MONDAY NIGHT. THE
FRONT MAY LAY OUT ACROSS THE AREA TUESDAY AS THE WESTERN TROUGH
ORPHANS IT AS IT LIFTS NORTH INTO CANADA. A PERSISTENT LLJ FROM
THE CENTRAL PLAINS TO IA MAY ALLOW RENEWED DEVELOPMENT ALONG
THE FRONT THROUGH TUESDAY. HIGH PWATS AROUND 2 INCHES AND AN
UNSTABLE ATMOSPHERE MAY CONTINUE THE SEVERE AND HEAVY RAINFALL
THREATS. TEMPERATURES TUESDAY ARE OF LOWER CONFIDENCE AND WILL
BE HEAVILY DEPENDENT ON CONVECTIVE EVOLUTION AND RESIDUAL
OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES.
THE REST OF NEXT WEEK WILL FEATURE AN INTENSE MID LEVEL RIDGE
PARKED OVER THE MID AND LOWER MS RIVER VALLEY AREA. AT THIS
RANGE, THIS COULD MEAN A RING-OF-FIRE SCENARIO WITH MULTIPLE
SEVERE EPISODES AS SHORTWAVES LIFT NORTHEAST FROM THE PLAINS
AROUND THE RIDGE AND/OR HAZARDOUS HEAT FOR THE UPPER MIDWEST. IN
THE ABSENCE OF EARLY DAY CONVECTION, WE CAN EXPECT TO TALLY
SEVERAL 90+ DEGREE DAYS.
AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY/
ISSUED AT 607 AM CDT WED JUN 24 2026
IFR/MVFR STRATUS THAT HAD BEEN WIDESPREAD ACROSS CENTRAL MN FOR
MUCH OF THE OVERNIGHT IS ADVANCING SOUTH WITH AN OUTFLOW
BOUNDARY FROM OVERNIGHT STORMS TO THE NORTH. CLOUDS HAVE CLEARED
AXN AND STC AND FINALLY REACHED TO MSP. THIS CLOUD BANK WILL
LIFT AND SCATTER MID MORNING. SCATTERED STORMS WILL DEVELOP EAST
OF STC AND MSP LATER TODAY.
KMSP...IT'S BEEN A CHALLENGING TAF OVERNIGHT, BUT WITH THE
ARRIVAL OF THE MVFR/IFR CLOUDS FROM THE NORTH THE DENSE FOG
RISK HAS ENDED. CLEARING SHOULD TAKE PLACE BETWEEN 14-15Z, WITH
VFR EXPECTED THEREAFTER. STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN EAST
TODAY.
/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/
THU...VFR. WIND NW 5-10 KTS BECOMING NE.
FRI...VFR. WIND SE 5-10 KTS.
SAT...VFR. WIND SE 10-15KTS GUSTING TO 25KTS.
MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MN...NONE.
WI...NONE.
DISCUSSION...BORGHOFF
AVIATION...BORGHOFF
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