862
FXUS63 KMPX 121755
AFDMPX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
1255 PM CDT THU MAR 12 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- A MIXTURE OF RAIN AND SNOW IS EXPECTED THURSDAY AND THURSDAY
NIGHT WITH GENERALLY AN INCH OR LESS OF ACCUMULATION.
PORTIONS OF RUSK COUNTY WI MAY RECEIVE 3-5 INCHES ALONG WITH
STRONG WINDS.
- VERY STRONG WINDS ARE EXPECTED THURSDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH
FRIDAY AFTERNOON. GUSTS NEAR 60 MPH ARE LIKELY ACROSS MUCH
OF WESTERN- SOUTHERN MINNESOTA, WITH 45-55 MPH EXPECTED
ELSEWHERE.
- HEAVY SNOW LIKELY THIS WEEKEND WITH HIGHEST AMOUNTS OVER
SOUTHERN MN THOUGH EXACT AMOUNTS STILL HAVE SOME UNCERTAINTY.
STRONG WINDS MAY OCCUR DURING AND ON THE DIMINISHING SIDE OF
THE SNOWFALL.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 432 AM CDT THU MAR 12 2026
QUITE THE COMPLEX AND ACTIVE FORECAST ON OUR HANDS FROM TODAY
THROUGH THE WEEKEND, TO SAY THE LEAST.
TODAY-FRIDAY...A DEVELOPING SURFACE LOW OVER SOUTHERN BRITISH
COLUMBIA WILL BE USHERED EASTWARD WITHIN A DIGGING UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH. THIS LOW WILL DIP SOUTH JUST ENOUGH OVER THE
INTERNATIONAL BORDER DURING THE DAY TODAY AND STRENGTHEN
SIGNIFICANTLY AS IT COMES OFF THE ROCKIES AND INTO THE DAKOTAS.
THE LOW WILL DROP FROM AROUND 1000MB TO AROUND 990MB DURING THIS
TREK, WITH ITS SOUTHWARD-SAGGING WARM FRONT NUDGING EASTWARD
OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS. ITS BROAD PRECIPITATION SHIELD WILL
MAINLY AFFECT NORTHERN MN BY LATE THIS AFTERNOON BUT ENOUGH COLD
AIR AT THE LOWER LEVELS WILL ALLOW PRECIPITATION TO COMMENCE AS
LIGHT SNOW EARLY THIS AFTERNOON. AS TEMPERATURES RISE WITH THE
WARM FRONT CROSSING INTO THE WFO MPX COVERAGE AREA LATER TODAY,
THE PRECIPITATION WILL CHANGE OVER TO RAIN AND BECOME FAIRLY
WIDESPREAD THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS. FAR NORTHERN AND EASTERN
PORTIONS OF THE COVERAGE AREA WILL REMAIN AS A RAIN/SNOW MIX
THROUGH THE DAY THEN CHANGE OVER TO ALL SNOW BY THIS EVENING.
THE MOST CONCENTRATED AREAS OF SNOWFALL LOOKS TO BE BARRON-
RUSK-CHIPPEWA COUNTIES IN WESTERN WI, WHERE OVER AN INCH IS
EXPECTED. IN PARTICULAR, RUSK COUNTY MAY SEE UPWARDS OF 3-5",
HIGHEST IN FAR NORTHEASTERN PORTIONS OF THE COUNTY. THUS, A
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY HAS BEEN ISSUED. ON THE BROADER SCALE
BEYOND THE PRECIPITATION, THE QUICK DEEPENING OF THE SURFACE LOW
AS IT APPROACHES AND MOVES ACROSS NORTHERN MN/WI THIS EVENING
THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING IN CONJUNCTION WITH HIGH PRESSURE ON THE
HEELS OF THE LOW WILL PRODUCE QUITE THE TIGHTENED SURFACE
PRESSURE GRADIENT. IN ADDITION, MODEL SOUNDINGS INDICATE BETWEEN
50-80KT OF WIND WITHIN THE BOUNDARY LAYER OF THE ATMOSPHERE AS
THIS SYSTEM MOVES ACROSS. THIS WILL PROMOTE VERY STRONG AND
POTENTIALLY HAZARDOUS SUSTAINED WINDS AND WIND GUSTS FROM THIS
EVENING THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS, ESPECIALLY ONCE THE WIND
SHIFT TO W AND NW OCCURS ON THE BACKSIDE OF THE SURFACE LOW.
SUSTAINED SPEEDS MAY REACH AND EXCEED 35MPH FOR MUCH OF THE
COVERAGE AREA WITH WIND GUSTS AS HIGH AS 60MPH. THE HIGHEST WIND
SPEEDS WILL BE IN WESTERN AND SOUTHERN MN WHERE A HIGH WIND
WARNING HAS BEEN ISSUED. WHERE SLIGHTLY LESSER SPEEDS ARE
EXPECTED, A WIND ADVISORY AS BEEN ISSUED. RETURNING TO THE
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FOR RUSK COUNTY, BOTH THE SNOWFALL OF 3+
INCHES ALONG WITH STRONG WINDS HAS BEEN MENTIONED WHICH MAY
REDUCE VISIBILITIES TO AROUND ONE MILE. CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
TO QUICKLY IMPROVE DURING THE DAY ON FRIDAY AS THE SURFACE LOW
SHIFTS WELL INTO THE GREAT LAKES. SNOWFALL IS EXPECTED TO CEASE
BY SUNSET OR SHORTLY THEREAFTER AND WINDS WILL STEADILY DIMINISH
THROUGH THE DAY, ALLOWING FOR A RELATIVELY BENIGN FRIDAY
AFTERNOON-EVENING. HIGHS TODAY WILL CLIMB TO THE LOWER 40S TO
LOWER 50S WITH LOWS TONIGHT DIPPING INTO THE 20S. MOST OF THE
PRECIPITATION, PARTICULARLY ACROSS THE MN PORTION OF OUR AREA,
WILL END PRIOR TO TEMPERATURES DROPPING BELOW FREEZING. BEHIND
THE SYSTEM, MODEST COLD AIR ADVECTION WILL KEEP HIGHS ONLY IN
THE 30S ON FRIDAY.
FRIDAY NIGHT-SUNDAY NIGHT...THIS IS THE PORTION OF THE FORECAST
THAT IS GARNERING MUCH OF THE ATTENTION, PARTICULARLY WITH THE
HEAVY SNOW THAT IS EXPECTED FOR LATE SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY. A
STRONG AND WELL- ORGANIZED CO LOW WILL DEVELOP SATURDAY THROUGH
SATURDAY NIGHT IN CONJUNCTION WITH A BROADER LONGWAVE TROUGH
WHICH WILL DIG APPRECIABLY OVER CENTRAL NOAM AND BRING NOT ONLY
PACIFIC MOISTURE WITH IT INTO THE UPPER MIDWEST BUT ALSO
PARTIALLY OPEN A PATH FOR GULF MOISTURE TO TRAVEL WELL
NORTHWARD. MODEL CONSENSUS CONTINUES TO PUT THE TRACK OF THIS
SYSTEM FROM CO ACROSS KS/MO/IA AND INTO THE GREAT LAKES, THUS
KEEPING OUR COVERAGE AREA ON THE COLD SIDE OF THE SYSTEM. IN
ADDITION, AS THIS SYSTEM MOVES ALONG THIS PATH, IT WILL CONTINUE
TO DEEPEN TO A SUB-990MB LOW. THE DIFFERENCE BETWEEN THE TODAY-
TONIGHT SYSTEM AND THIS WEEKEND SYSTEM IS THE ORIGIN, PATH AND
SLOWER PROGRESSION OF THE WEEKEND SYSTEM. THIS WILL LEAD TO A
GREATER PRECIPITATION SWATH AND SIGNIFICANTLY HIGHER AMOUNTS
WITHIN A MUCH COLDER AIRMASS. THERE IS ALSO MORE CONSISTENT
SIGNALS OF HIGH SNOWFALL AMOUNTS, ESPECIALLY FOR THE SOUTHERN
HALF OF OUR COVERAGE AREA. WHILE IT IS STILL A BIT EARLY TO SAY
WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE WHAT SPECIFIC AMOUNTS ARE ACROSS THE
COVERAGE AREA, CONFIDENCE IS GROWING THAT THE CENTRAL AND
SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF OUR COVERAGE AREA WILL RECEIVE OVER 6
INCHES OF SNOW AND LIKELY A BAND OF 8-12" WILL DEVELOP OVER
SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF OUR COVERAGE AREA. THE BULK OF THE SNOWFALL
WILL OCCUR LATE SATURDAY EVENING THROUGH LATE SUNDAY MORNING,
AND WILL ALSO BE ACCOMPANIED BY STRONG WINDS (NOT AS STRONG AS
TONIGHT'S) WHICH WILL CAUSE BLOWING SNOW AND VISIBILITY
REDUCTIONS. IT IS A BIT EARLY TO START USING "BLIZZARD" WORDING
BUT AT THIS POINT THE COMBINATION OF HEAVY SNOW WITH STRONG
WINDS IS LOOKING MORE AND MORE LIKELY. THE STRONGEST WINDS LOOK
TO BE DURING THE DAYTIME HOURS ON SUNDAY WHEN THE SNOWFALL IS
WINDING DOWN, AND THIS WILL BE A FAIRLY WET SNOWFALL WITH RATIOS
IN THE 12:1 TO 16:1 RANGE, WHICH MAY LIMIT THE DRIFTING ASPECT
AS THE SNOWPACK DEVELOPS. THIS SYSTEM WILL SHIFT INTO SOUTHEAST
CANADA BY MONDAY MORNING WITH DIMINISHING WINDS AND CLEARING
SKIES IN ITS WAKE FOR MONDAY.
MONDAY-WEDNESDAY...RELATIVELY TRANQUIL BUT COLD CONDITIONS ARE
THEN EXPECTED FOR THE EARLY PORTION OF NEXT WEEK. TEMPERATURES
WILL DROP SOME 20 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL MONDAY-TUESDAY AS HIGHS
ONLY TOP OUT IN THE TEENS AND 20S WITH LOWS IN THE SINGLE
DIGITS, POSSIBLY EVEN BELOW ZERO. THUS, THIS FRESH SNOWPACK
LOOKS TO STICK AROUND FOR SOME TIME GOING LATER INTO MARCH. NO
SIGNIFICANT SYSTEMS ARE HIGHLIGHTED IN MODEL GUIDANCE FOR NEXT
WEEK BUT A FEW WEAK DISTURBANCES MAY DRIFT THROUGH WHICH COULD
PRODUCE SOME WEAK SNOW SHOWERS FROM TIME TO TIME.
AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY/
ISSUED AT 1234 PM CDT THU MAR 12 2026
WINDS ARE SLOWLY STARTING TO COME UP EARLY THIS AFTERNOON WITH
GUSTS OF 20-25KTS OUT OF THE SOUTH. SOME RETURNS ARE SHOWING UP
ON RADAR, BUT NOTHING IS REACHING THE GROUND JUST YET. THE RAIN
SHOWERS ARE MAKING THEIR WAY EASTWARD FROM THE DAKOTAS AND
SHOULD REACH OUR WESTERN TERMINALS BY 21-22Z WITH SOME SNOW/ICE
PELLETS MIXING IN OVER TIME. MVFR VISIBILITIES ARE LIKELY WITH
THE PRECIP WITH CIGS FOLLOWING AFTER 00Z.
WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO INCREASE AND TURN SOUTHWESTERLY TO
NORTHWESTERLY BETWEEN 05-07Z. WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO BE SUSTAINED
AROUND 25KTS WITH GUSTS OF 45-55KTS. THESE STRONG GUSTS WILL
CONTINUE INTO FRIDAY MORNING BEFORE SLOWLY DIMINISHING TO AROUND
35-45KTS BY THE END OF THE PERIOD FROM WEST TO EAST. CIGS ARE
EXPECTED TO REMAIN MVFR THROUGH THE END OF THE PERIOD, BUT OUR
WESTERN/NORTHERNMOST SITES COULD COME BACK TO VFR JUST BEFORE
18Z.
KMSP...WHILE THE MAIN FORECAST CONCERN ARE THE HIGH WINDS, SOME
PRECIP IMPACTS ARE POSSIBLE THIS EVENING. MAY NEED TO DO SOME
ADJUSTING IN REGARDS TO THE WX/VIS, BUT NOT ANTICIPATING IFR
CONDITIONS. KEPT LLWS MENTION FOR THIS EVENING WITH A VERY
STRONG JET ALOFT. DID INCREASE GUSTS EARLY FRIDAY MORNING TO
AROUND 50KTS. BEST WINDOW FOR HIGHEST WIND GUSTS IS SOMETIME
BETWEEN 08-12Z. VFR CIGS RETURN BY FRIDAY AFTERNOON WITH WINDS
DOWN TO 25-30KTS.
/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/
SAT...MVFR LIKELY, CHC IFR/-SN LATE DAY. HEAVY SNOW OVERNIGHT.
WIND SE 5-10KTS INCREASING TO 10-15KTS.
SUN...IFR WITH SN, HEAVY AT TIMES. WIND NE 15-20G25-35KTS BCMG
NW.
MON...VFR. WIND NW 10-15KTS.
MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MN...HIGH WIND WARNING FROM 10 PM THIS EVENING TO 7 AM CDT FRIDAY
FOR BLUE EARTH-BROWN-CHIPPEWA-DOUGLAS-FARIBAULT-FREEBORN-
KANDIYOHI-LAC QUI PARLE-MARTIN-MCLEOD-MEEKER-NICOLLET-
POPE-REDWOOD-RENVILLE-SIBLEY-STEARNS-STEVENS-SWIFT-TODD-
WASECA-WATONWAN-YELLOW MEDICINE.
HIGH WIND WARNING FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 10 AM CDT FRIDAY
FOR ANOKA-BENTON-CARVER-DAKOTA-GOODHUE-HENNEPIN-LE SUEUR-
MORRISON-RAMSEY-RICE-SCOTT-SHERBURNE-STEELE-WASHINGTON-
WRIGHT.
WIND ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 10 AM CDT FRIDAY FOR
CHISAGO-ISANTI-KANABEC-MILLE LACS.
WI...WIND ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 10 AM CDT FRIDAY FOR
BARRON-CHIPPEWA-DUNN-EAU CLAIRE-PEPIN-PIERCE-POLK-ST.
CROIX.
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 5 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 10 AM CDT
FRIDAY FOR RUSK.
DISCUSSION...JPC
AVIATION...DYE
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