257
FXUS63 KMPX 261139
AFDMPX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
639 AM CDT TUE MAY 26 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- WARM TEMPERATURES CONTINUE THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD, WITH
TODAY LIKELY THE HOTTEST WITH LOW 90S POSSIBLE.
- CHANCES FOR THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH WEDNESDAY, THEN A PROLONGED
DRY PATTERN SETS UP.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 209 AM CDT TUE MAY 26 2026
SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS HAVE DEVELOPED FROM EASTERN YELLOW
MEDICINE COUNTY SOUTHEASTWARD INTO NORTH CENTRAL IA EARLY THIS
MORNING ON THE LEADING EDGE OF RICHER PWATS. THESE STORMS WILL
CONTINUE WORKING NORTHEAST DURING THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS TOWARD
THE MN RIVER VALLEY BEFORE LIKELY DISSIPATING MID MORNING. SOME
OF THE STORMS MAY CONTAIN HAIL. A BOUNDARY SHIFTED NORTH AROUND
MIDNIGHT AND TEMPERATURES JUMPED 5 TO 10 DEGREES QUICKLY BEHIND
IT WITH MSP STILL SITTING AT 77 DEGREES AS OF 145 AM. IT WILL
BE ANOTHER VERY WARM DAY TODAY WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 80S TO
LOWER 90S. LOWER 90S MAY BE MORE WIDESPREAD IF RESIDUAL CLOUD
COVER FROM MORNING CONVECTION IS MINIMIZED AND REDEVELOPMENT OF
CONVECTION HOLDS OFF UNTIL LATE IN THE DAY. MUCAPE OF 1500-2500
J/KG IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP AS THE DAY PROGRESSES THANKS TO
STEEP MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES AND PWATS INCREASING TO 1.5 INCHES.
SHEAR WILL BE QUITE WEAK SO CONVECTION WILL NOT BE PARTICULARLY
ORGANIZED. HOWEVER, SOME LARGE HAIL IS POSSIBLE WITH THE
STRONGER UPDRAFTS GIVEN THE STEEP MID LAPSE RATES AND MODERATE
TO STRONG CAPE. GUSTY WINDS ARE ALSO POSSIBLE GIVEN THE
RELATIVELY DRY LAYER BELOW 10 KFT. INITIAL DEVELOPMENT MAY OCCUR
BY MID AFTERNOON. SEVERAL OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES FROM INITIAL
ACTIVITY MAY ACT AS A FOCUS FOR ADDITIONAL DEVELOPMENT. COVERAGE
WILL PEAK IN THE EARLY TO MID EVENING BEFORE NOCTURNAL
STABILIZATION BEGINS TO DECAY CONVECTION THEREAFTER. A BACKDOOR
COLD FRONT WILL MAKE SOUTHWESTWARD PROGRESS WEDNESDAY TO THE
MISSISSIPPI RIVER LATE WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. ADDITIONAL
DEVELOPMENT MAY OCCUR ALONG IT AND AHEAD OF IT DURING PEAK
HEATING, BUT COVERAGE WILL BE MORE ISOLATED THAN TODAY.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD SOUTH INTO THE GREAT LAKES LATE WEEK
THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK. SURFACE WINDS WILL SHIFT EASTERLY AND
MUCH DRIER AIR WILL WORK IN, ENDING THE SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM
CHANCES FOR A WHILE. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN WARM IN THE LOW TO
MID 80S EACH DAY, ENDING MAY ON A MUCH WARMER NOTE.
AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z WEDNESDAY/
ISSUED AT 639 AM CDT TUE MAY 26 2026
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS HAVE BECOME FAIRLY WIDESPREAD FROM RWF
EASTWARD TO BETWEEN MSP AND MKT. THE RECENT DEVELOPMENT INTO THE
SOUTHWEST TWIN CITIES METRO INDICATES THIS ACTIVITY IS NOT READY
TO DISSIPATE YET DESPITE RECENT GUIDANCE TRENDS. STILL EXPECT
MOST OF THIS ACTIVITY TO BE DISSIPATING BY 14Z, BUT NOT BEFORE
MAKING A RUN TOWARD MSP. ADDITIONAL TS MAY FORM THIS AFTERNOON
AND EVENING, BUT CONFIDENCE REMAINS TOO LOW TO INCLUDE ANY TAF
AT THIS TIME.
KMSP...TS IS BUILDING NORTHEAST AND IS NOW ABOUT 25 MILES TO THE
SOUTHWEST. THE PROBABILITY REMAINS LOW TS WILL REACH THE
TERMINAL, BUT GIVEN HOW ACTIVITY HAS DEVELOPED NORTH IN THE LAST
HOUR A PROB30 WAS NECESSARY. BEST CHANCE WILL BE BETWEEN
13-1430Z.
/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/
WED...VFR. SLIGHT CHC AFTN -TSRA. WIND NE 5-10 KTS.
THU...VFR. WIND E 5-10 KTS.
FRI...VFR. WIND SE 5-10 KTS.
MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MN...NONE.
WI...NONE.
DISCUSSION...BORGHOFF
AVIATION...BORGHOFF
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