333
FXUS63 KMPX 051938
AFDMPX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
238 PM CDT SAT JUL 5 2025
KEY MESSAGES
- SCATTERED SHOWERS AND WEAK STORMS MOVE THROUGH THIS EVENING
ALONG A PASSING COLD FRONT.
- QUIET SUNDAY FOLLOWED BY MULTIPLE CHANCES FOR STORMS NEXT
WEEK.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 238 PM CDT SAT JUL 5 2025
REGIONAL RADAR IMAGERY SHOWS A BROAD SWATH OF ISOLATED SHOWERS AND
WEAK STORMS STRETCHING FROM NORTHERN MINNESOTA ALL THE WAY TO THE
SOUTHERN BORDER AND SPANNING THE ENTIRETY OF THE MPX CWA FROM
WESTERN MN TO WESTERN WI. A WEAK SURFACE LOW IS POSITIONED OVER THE
MN/WI BORDER SOUTH OF HUDSON WI WITH A SURFACE COLD FRONT STRETCHING
SOUTHWEST THROUGH SOUTHERN MINNESOTA AND INTO NORTHWESTERN IOWA.
THIS SURFACE FRONT HAS BEEN THE SOURCE OF A FEW FUNNEL CLOUD REPORTS
NEAR FAIRMONT EARLIER THIS AFTERNOON AROUND 1PM, WITH THE KEY
FEATURE TO PAY ATTENTION TO BEING THE NST PARAMETER AVAILABLE ON THE
SPC MESOANALYSIS PAGE AS IT HIGHLIGHTS AN AREA OF LOW LEVEL
INSTABILITY AND SURFACE VORTICITY ALONG THE FRONT MOVING EASTWARDS
INTO THIS EVENING. THERE WAS ONE REPORT OF A BRIEF LANDSPOUT BETWEEN
WELCOME AND FAIRMONT IN MARTIN CO SHORTLY AFTER 1PM, WITH A LACK OF
REPORTS SINCE. THE MAIN DIFFERENCE BETWEEN A REGULAR TORNADO AND A
LANDSPOUT IS THAT A LANDSPOUT IS DUE TO SURFACE VORTICITY STRETCHING
VERTICALLY IN THE ATMOSPHERE TOWARDS THE BASE OF A STRENGTHENING
THUNDERSTORM CLOUD, WHICH DOES NOT ALLOW THE ROTATION TO BE VERY
STRONG AND RARELY RESULTS IN DAMAGE; COMPARE THIS TO A TYPICAL
TORNADIC THUNDERSTORM WHICH CONTAINS A ROTATING UPDRAFT THAT IS THE
SOURCE OF THE STRONG ROTATION WHICH CAUSES DAMAGE. ALL THIS IS TO
SAY, FUNNEL CLOUDS AND LANDSPOUTS ARE NEAR-SURFACE FEATURES WHICH
RARELY CAUSE DAMAGE AND BASED ON WHERE THE ENVIRONMENT IS FAVORABLE
WILL BE TOO LOW TO SEE BY THE MPX RADAR WHICH IS LOOKING ROUGHLY
4000 TO 5000FT TOO HIGH TO SEE THE FEATURE WHICH IS CONFINED TO THE
LOWEST 1000FT OF THE ATMOSPHERE.
THIS THREAT SHOULD DIMINISH AS THE SURFACE LOW AND COLD FRONT MOVE
EASTWARDS THIS EVENING, AND AS WE LOSE OUR DAYLIGHT WE SHOULD SEE
INSTABILITY BEGIN TO WEAKEN AND CAP SUCH THAT NO FURTHER ACTIVITY IS
EXPECTED AFTER SUNSET. A BRIEF RESPITE FROM ACTIVE WEATHER IS
EXPECTED ON SUNDAY WITH WEAK SUBSIDENCE FROM ZONAL UPPER LEVEL FLOW
AND A LACK OF LOW LEVEL SYNOPTIC FEATURES WILL GIVE US PARTLY TO
MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES AND AVERAGE TEMPERATURES. WE RETURN TO OUR
REGULARLY SCHEDULED DIURNAL UNSETTLED PATTERN NEXT WEEK AS EACH DAY
APPEARS TO HAVE AT LEAST SOME POTENTIAL FOR ISOLATED TO SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS AS A RESULT OF MID-LEVEL SHORTWAVE
IMPULSES OR AIRMASS TYPE FORCING DUE TO DAYTIME HEATING. GLOBAL
ENSEMBLES SHOW POTENTIAL FOR EACH DAY THIS UPCOMING WEEK FOR
AFTERNOON ACTIVITY AS TEMPERATURES REMAIN NEAR NORMAL IN THE LOW TO
MID 80S AND HUMIDITY REMAINS LOCKED IN WITHOUT A SIGNIFICANT CHANGE
IN AIRMASS. THERE IS NOT A PARTICULAR DAY WHERE FORCING APPEARS
STRONGER ON A SYNOPTIC LEVEL, SO WE WILL CONTINUE TO RELY ON SHORT
TO MID RANGE MODEL GUIDANCE TO HIGHLIGHT THE BEST LOCATIONS AND
TIMING FOR THUNDERSTORMS THROUGHOUT THE WEEK, WHICH TYPICALLY WILL
HAPPEN DURING THE 24-48 HOUR WINDOW AHEAD OF TIME. IT ISN'T UNTIL WE
GET TO FRIDAY TO SATURDAY NEXT WEEK WHERE BETTER SYNOPTIC FORCING
SHOWS UP WITHIN THE GLOBAL GUIDANCE, WITH AN UPPER LEVEL OCCLUDED
TROUGH SWEEPING ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS SOMETIME BETWEEN 12Z
FRIDAY AND 12Z SATURDAY, RESULTING IN THE STRONGEST SYNOPTIC SCALE
FORCING VIA CVA WITH A HINT OF A LOW LEVEL JET TO ASSIST. UNTIL WE
GET CLOSER, THE TIMING AND STRENGTH WILL REMAIN RATHER AMBIGUOUS
AND WILL BE SHIFTING WITH EACH NEW MODEL RUN, HOWEVER THIS END OF
WEEK SYSTEM WOULD LIKELY BE OUR BEST CHANCE AT SOME STRONGER STORMS
OR HEAVY RAIN LEADING TO POTENTIAL LOCALIZED FLOODING.
AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY/
ISSUED AT 1207 PM CDT SAT JUL 5 2025
RADAR CONTINUES TO SHOW ISOLATED SHOWERS OVER THE EASTERN 2/3RDS
OF THE FORECAST AREA, WITH SCATTERED CUMULUS DEVELOPING OVER
AXN/RWF EXPECTED TO SLOWLY PUSH EASTWARDS OVER THE FIRST 12
HOURS. -SHRA CHANCES MAKE WAY FOR -TSRA FROM ROUGHLY 20-00Z WITH
COVERAGE OF -TSRA LESS THAN 30 PERCENT AND MOST SITES EXPECTED
TO LARGELY BE MISSED DIRECTLY. WINDS WILL GUST AS HIGH AS
20-22KTS FROM 20-00Z BEFORE FALLING BACK AND SHIFTING TOWARDS
360-020 BY THE END OF THE PERIOD AT OR BELOW 8KTS.
KMSP...KEPT THE INHERITED PROB30 FOR -TSRA GOING, DESPITE
COVERAGE LESS THAN 30 PERCENT AS CONFIDENCE IN PLACEMENT OF
-TSRA ALONG THE BOUNDARY MOVING THROUGH IS LOW. DELAYED THE
BREAKING OF CIGS UNTIL AFTER 06Z DUE TO THE SLOW MOVEMENT OF
THE BOUNDARY THUS FAR TODAY.
/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/
MON...VFR, CHC PM -TSRA. WIND SW 5-10KTS.
TUE...VFR, CHC -SHRA/-TSRA. WIND W 5-10KTS.
WED...VFR, CHC -SHRA/-TSRA. WIND SE 5-10KTS.
MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MN...NONE.
WI...NONE.
DISCUSSION...TDH
AVIATION...TDH
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