809
FXUS63 KMPX 161947
AFDMPX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
247 PM CDT FRI OCT 16 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- WIDESPREAD SUB-FREEZING TEMPERATURES TONIGHT.
- ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS SATURDAY AFTERNOON.
- TEMPERATURES WARM WELL ABOVE NORMAL NEXT WEEK.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 237 PM CDT FRI OCT 16 2026
GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS WILL GRADUALLY DIMINISH THIS AFTERNOON AS
CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE REGION. CLEAR SKIES &
LIGHT WINDS TONIGHT WILL ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO QUICKLY FALL INTO
THE 30S, WITH WIDESPREAD SUB-FREEZING TEMPERATURES EXPECTED
OVERNIGHT. A FREEZE WARNING IS IN EFFECT OVERNIGHT THROUGH 9 AM
SATURDAY ACROSS THE ENTIRE AREA, WITH THE EXCEPTION OF THE INNER
CORE OF THE TWIN CITIES METRO. SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS COULD PICK UP
EARLIER IN THE NIGHT ACROSS WESTERN MINNESOTA & KEEP
TEMPERATURES A FEW DEGREES ABOVE FREEZING, BUT HRRR & AIFS
FORECASTS STILL SUGGESTS FREEZING TEMPERATURES ARE LIKELY HERE
ALBEIT CLOSER TO MIDNIGHT INSTEAD OF SATURDAY MORNING. TONIGHT'S
FREEZE WILL EFFECTIVELY END THE GROWING SEASON ACROSS MUCH OF
THE REGION, WITH OUR NEXT SHOT A WIDESPREAD FREEZE LIKELY NOT
COMING UNTIL NOVEMBER, SO TAKE CARE TO PROTECT REMAINING
SENSITIVE OUTDOOR VEGETATION SHOULD BE PROTECTED.
THE COLD SPELL WILL BE BRIEF AS THE HIGH PRESSURE DEPARTS TO THE
EAST AND GUSTY SOUTHWEST WINDS DEVELOP THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING.
WIND GUSTS INCREASE TO 25-30 MPH BY THE AFTERNOON ALONG WITH
TEMPERATURES WARM INTO THE LOW 60S ACROSS WESTERN MINNESOTA &
UPPER 50S ELSEWHERE. THIS COMBINATION OF GUSTY WINDS, WARMER
TEMPERATURES, & AFTERNOON HUMIDITY VALUES APPROACHING 30% WILL
LEAD TO ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS. THE GREATEST CONCERN
WILL BE ACROSS WESTERN MINNESOTA, WHERE THE WARMEST & WINDIEST
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED ALONG WITH DRIER FUELS THAT MISSED
THURSDAYS SOAKING RAIN.
TEMPERATURES CONTINUE WARMING INTO NEXT WEEK AS UPPER-LEVEL
RIDGING STRENGTHENS ACROSS THE CENTRAL CONUS. HIGHS IN THE LOW
TO MID 70S ARE LIKELY BY THE END OF THE WEEK, AROUND 10-15
DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL FOR MID-OCTOBER. DRY WEATHER LOOKS TO
DOMINATE THE PERIOD WITH ANY APPRECIABLE RAIN NOT UNLIKELY
UNTIL NEXT WEEKEND.
AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SUNDAY/
ISSUED AT 1144 AM CDT FRI OCT 16 2026
VISIBLE SATELLITE TRENDS OVER THE LAST 2 HOURS SHOW A RAPID
REDUCTION IN CLOUDS, ESPECIALLY ACROSS CENTRAL AND NORTHERN
MINNESOTA. THIS CLEARING WILL SPREAD SOUTH THIS AFTERNOON,
RESULTING IN WIDESPREAD CLEAR SKIES AND VFR CONDITIONS FOR THE
REST OF THE PERIOD.
STRONG NORTHERLY WINDS CONTINUE TO START THE PERIOD, THOUGH
WILL QUICKLY DROP THIS AFTERNOON AND BECOME LIGHT AND VARIABLE
BY THIS EVENING FOR MOST LOCATIONS. WINDS WILL SHIFT OUT OF THE
SOUTHWEST BY TOMORROW MORNING, BECOMING GUSTY AGAIN TOMORROW
AFTERNOON.
KMSP...CLOUDS MAY CLEAR EARLIER THAN 21Z. NORTHWEST WINDS GUST
TO 30 KTS FOR THE FIRST HOUR OF THE TAF, THEN GUSTS ARE EXPECTED
TO WEAKEN AND BECOME LESS FREQUENT THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. WINDS
BECOME LIGHT AND VARIABLE BY 02-03Z, AND THEN INCREASE OUT OF
THE SOUTHWEST AFTER SUNRISE TOMORROW.
/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/
SUN...VFR. WIND SW 15G25KTS.
MON...VFR. WIND VRB 5KTS.
TUE...VFR. WIND SE 10G20KTS.
MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MN...FREEZE WARNING FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 9 AM CDT SATURDAY FOR
ANOKA-BENTON-BLUE EARTH-BROWN-CARVER-CHIPPEWA-CHISAGO-
DAKOTA-DOUGLAS-FARIBAULT-FREEBORN-GOODHUE-ISANTI-KANABEC-
KANDIYOHI-LAC QUI PARLE-LE SUEUR-MARTIN-MCLEOD-MEEKER-
MILLE LACS-MORRISON-NICOLLET-POPE-REDWOOD-RENVILLE-RICE-
SCOTT-SHERBURNE-SIBLEY-STEARNS-STEELE-STEVENS-SWIFT-TODD-
WASECA-WASHINGTON-WATONWAN-WRIGHT-YELLOW MEDICINE.
FROST ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 9 AM CDT SATURDAY FOR
HENNEPIN-RAMSEY.
WI...FREEZE WARNING FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 9 AM CDT SATURDAY FOR
BARRON-CHIPPEWA-DUNN-EAU CLAIRE-PEPIN-PIERCE-POLK-RUSK-
ST. CROIX.
DISCUSSION...ETA
AVIATION...BED
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