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FXUS63 KMPX 301144
AFDMPX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
644 AM CDT SAT MAY 30 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- SCATTERED SHOWERS & THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUE THROUGH THIS
WEEKEND ACROSS WESTERN MINNESOTA.
- BETTER CHANCE FOR MORE WIDESPREAD THUNDERSTORMS MIDWEEK.
- ABOVE-NORMAL TEMPERATURES CONTINUE THROUGH AT LEAST EARLY
JUNE.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 129 AM CDT SAT MAY 30 2026
REGIONAL RADAR SHOWS REFLECTIVITY INCREASING EARLY THIS MORNING
AS MOISTURE CONTINUES TO STREAM NORTH ACROSS WESTERN MN. ANY
PRECIPITATION HAS STRUGGLED TO REACH THE GROUND THOUGH, WITH
ONLY A HANDFUL OF SITES REPORTING RAIN. A NORTH-SOUTH ORIENTED
STATIONARY FRONT REMAINS DRAPED OVER WESTERN MN, KEEPING ANY
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS ON THE FAR WESTERN SIDE OF THE
STATE TODAY AND TOMORROW. TO THE EAST, IT WILL REMAIN A PRETTY
SOLID WEEKEND AS EASTERLY WINDS KEEP DEWPOINTS IN THE 50S AND
HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE LOW TO MID 80S.
MODEL GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO FOCUS IN ON WED/THU FOR OUR NEXT
ROUND OF RAIN AS A SHORTWAVE DEVELOPS IN WESTERN CANADA AND
ATTEMPTS TO FLATTEN OUT THE RIDGE THAT'S BEEN PARKED OVERHEAD.
THE SURFACE RESPONSE WOULD BE ENOUGH TO GENERATE A FEW ROUNDS OF
RAIN AS THE WAVE PROGRESSES EAST. THE NBM CONTINUES TO POPULATE
40-70% POPS WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING, WHICH
IS REASONABLE GIVEN THE SYNOPTIC FORCING AND OFF AND ON CHANCES
FOR RAIN.
TYPICALLY YOU NEED A LARGE WEATHER SYSTEM TO BREAK A PERSISTENT
PATTERN, AND IT CONTINUES TO LOOK LIKE THIS SHORTWAVE WILL NOT
BE ENOUGH TO BREAK US OUT OF THIS ANOMALOUSLY WARM STRETCH.
ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE FAVORS TEMPERATURE ANOMALIES OF 5-10 DEGREES
ABOVE NORMAL FOR EARLY JUNE, WITH LOWS NEAR 60 AND HIGHS IN THE
MID 80S INTO NEXT WEEKEND.
AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SUNDAY/
ISSUED AT 632 AM CDT SAT MAY 30 2026
SOLID VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED WITH UPPER LEVEL CEILINGS LASTING
THROUGHOUT THIS DURATION. MID-LEVEL FAIR WX STRATOCUMULUS
EXPECTED DURING THE DAYLIGHT HOURS TODAY WITH WINDS ALSO
INCREASING FROM 5-10KTS AT INITIALIZATION TO AROUND 15G25KTS
THIS AFTERNOON, AND THOSE SPEEDS CONTINUING THROUGH TONIGHT.
THE ONLY -SHRA MENTION CONTINUES TO BE AT RWF AS THE BULK OF
POTENTIAL SHOWERS THIS AFTERNOON LOOK TO BE IN SOUTHWESTERN MN.
INTRODUCED VCSH THIS MORNING AS PROGRESSIVE INTERMITTENT -SHRA
DRIFT NEAR/OVER RWF THIS MORNING, WITH THE CHANCE FOR ADDITIONAL
SHOWERS THIS AFTERNOON. ALL OTHER TAF SITES ARE EXPECTED TO
REMAIN DRY.
KMSP...NO ADDITIONAL CONCERNS.
/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/
MON-TUE...VFR. WIND SE 5-10 KTS.
WED...MAINLY VFR. CHANCE P.M. -SHRA/MVFR. WIND S 10 KTS.
THU...SHRA LIKELY. CHANCE TSRA/MVFR. WIND SW 10 KTS.
MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MN...NONE.
WI...NONE.
DISCUSSION...BED
AVIATION...JPC
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