446
FXUS63 KMPX 180706
AFDMPX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
206 AM CDT THU SEP 18 2025
KEY MESSAGES
- CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUE THROUGH THE
WEEKEND.
- SLOW MOVING STORMS AND HIGH ATMOSPHERIC MOISTURE CONTENT WILL
LIKELY LEAD TO AREAS OF HEAVY RAIN TOTALS EACH OF THE NEXT FEW
DAYS.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 206 AM CDT THU SEP 18 2025
SCATTERED SHOWERS ACROSS WESTERN MN GROW INTO WIDESPREAD
SHOWERS FARTHER WEST ACROSS THE DAKOTAS EARLY THIS MORNING.
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY HIGHLIGHTS SEVERAL SMALL SCALE DISTURBANCES
WITHIN THE TROUGH ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS AND A DRY SLOT
ATTEMPTING TO REACH SOUTHWESTERN MN. PWATS ARE EXPECTED TO DROP
TODAY AND LAPSE RATES WILL REMAIN POOR, ALTHOUGH THERE WILL BE
SOME MODEST, SKINNY, UNCAPPED CAPE THIS AFTERNOON. CANNOT RULE
OUT SOME SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING DURING
DIURNAL PEAK, BUT THE LACK OF A TRIGGER SHOULD MEAN ANOTHER
MOSTLY QUIET DAY.
A MORE SUBSTANTIVE SHORTWAVE IS EXPECTED TO ROTATE NORTH FROM
THE CENTRAL PLAINS THIS EVENING TO MN BY FRIDAY MORNING.
ACCOMPANYING IT IS A RECOVERY OF PWATS BACK TO 1.5-1.75 INCHES.
A MOIST ADIABATIC PROFILE AND VERY LITTLE OR NO CAPE WILL KEEP
THE THUNDER THREAT MODEST, BUT WIND PROFILES REMAIN FAVORABLE
FOR SLOW MOVING OR TRAINING SHOWERS CAPABLE OF HEAVY RAINFALL
TOTALS. COVERAGE SHOULD BE BETTER THAN ANYTHING WE'VE SEEN SO
FAR FROM THIS SYSTEM. BY FRIDAY, THE CORE OF THE UPPER LOW WILL
FINALLY BEGIN MAKING PROGRESS EASTWARD AND SHOULD SLOWLY
PROPAGATE ACROSS MN THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT, REACHING WI SATURDAY.
POPS WILL BE HIGHEST EAST OF THE SYSTEM WITHIN THE WARM CONVEYOR
BELT. AS ANOTHER TROUGH APPROACHES FROM THE WEST, IT WILL ABSORB
THE WEEK-LONG UPPER LOW BY EARLY SUNDAY OVER WI AND PROLONG THE
CYCLONIC FLOW AND SCATTERED SHOWER THREAT POSSIBLY INTO MONDAY.
THE REST OF NEXT WEEK LOOKS MOSTLY DRY WITH SEASONABLE
TEMPERATURES, ALTHOUGH GENERAL TROUGHINESS WILL REMAIN. ANOTHER
UPPER LOW WILL DIVE SOUTHEAST TO THE CENTRAL PLAINS AND MID TO
LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY MIDWEEK. IT'S POSSIBLE WE WILL BE ON
THE NORTHERN FRINGE OF THAT SYSTEM AND POPS MAY EVENTUALLY BE
INTRODUCED, BUT THE BETTER CHANCES FOR ANY SUBSTANTIAL PRECIP
SHOULD REMAIN WELL TO THE SOUTH.
AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY/
ISSUED AT 1249 AM CDT THU SEP 18 2025
SHOWERS TONIGHT ARE MAINLY CONFINED TO WESTERN MN, ALTHOUGH A
FEW ARE ALSO PRESENT JUST SOUTH OF EAU. MOST OF THE AREA WILL
REMAIN DRY TONIGHT, WITH LOWERING CIGS ACROSS WESTERN AND
CENTRAL MN TOWARD THE EARLY MORNING HOURS. IFR CONDITIONS ARE
POSSIBLE FOR SEVERAL HOURS INTO MID TO LATE MORNING, THEN
LIFTING BACK TO MVFR OR VFR FOR THURSDAY AFTERNOON. SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND STORMS COULD DEVELOP IN THE AFTERNOON, BUT THE
BETTER CHANCE FOR SHOWERS IS THURSDAY NIGHT.
KMSP...EXPECTING TO STAY DRY AND VFR OVERNIGHT WITH LIGHT WINDS.
/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/
FRI...MVFR. -SHRA LIKELY, CHC -TSRA. WIND SE 5-10 KTS.
SAT...CHC MVFR/-TSRA. WIND S 5-10 KTS.
SUN...CHC MVFR/-TSRA. WIND SW 5-10 KTS.
MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MN...NONE.
WI...NONE.
DISCUSSION...BORGHOFF
AVIATION...BORGHOFF
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