003
FNUS71 KLWX 191913
FWSLWX
SPOT FORECAST FOR ROBERTSON MOUNTAIN TRAIL SAR...SHENANDOAH NATIONAL PARK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC
313 PM EDT SUN OCT 19 2025
FORECAST IS BASED ON FORECAST START TIME OF 1500 EDT ON OCTOBER 19.
IF CONDITIONS BECOME UNREPRESENTATIVE...CONTACT THE NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE.
PLEASE CONTACT OUR OFFICE IF YOU HAVE QUESTIONS
OR CONCERNS WITH THIS FORECAST.
DISCUSSION
A POWERFUL COLD FRONT IS MOVING TOWARDS THE REGION THIS AFTERNOON,
RESULTING IN CONTINUED STRONG SOUTH WINDS, GUSTING UP TO 40 MPH.
THIS IS ENOUGH TO BRING DOWN DEAD TREES AND/OR WEAK TREES WITH
SHALLOW ROOTS. THIS WILL BE THE BIGGEST HAZARD THROUGH MUCH OF
THIS AFTERNOON. TEMPERATURES REMAIN IN THE MID 60S THIS AFTERNOON
BEFORE DROPPING INTO THE 50S THIS EVENING.
AS THE COLD FRONT NEARS THIS EVENING, A LINE OF POTENT SHOWERS,
AND PERHAPS A FEW THUNDERSTORMS, WILL PUSH THROUGH THE REGION.
THE MOST CONFIDENT TIMING AT THIS POINT FOR THAT TO MOVE THROUGH IS
BETWEEN 7 PM AND 10 PM. SOME SHOWERS MAY DEVELOP AHEAD AND JUST
BEHIND THE MAIN LINE, BUT AS THAT MAIN LINE MOVES THROUGH, BRIEF
SEVERE WIND GUSTS IN EXCESS OF 58 MPH ARE POSSIBLE.
ONCE THIS LINE OF SHOWERS PUSHES THROUGH THIS EVENING, RAPID
CLEARING CAN BE EXPECTED, ALONG WITH AN ABRUPT WIND SHIFT OUT OF
THE WEST AND MUCH COOLER TEMPERATURES. EXPECT LOW TEMPERATURES
TO DROP INTO THE 40S TONIGHT, PERHAPS RIGHT AROUND 40 ON THE
HIGHEST RIDGES. THIS PAIRED WITH WIND GUSTS STILL AROUND 30 TO
35 MPH OVERNIGHT WILL BRING WIND CHILLS INTO THE EQUATION, WITH
THOSE VALUES EXPECTED TO REACH THE LOW TO MID 30S (PERHAPS BELOW
FREEZING ON THE HIGHEST RIDGES).
REST OF TODAY
SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY CLOUDY (70-80 PERCENT). ISOLATED SHOWERS
LATE IN THE AFTERNOON. SCATTERED SHOWERS LATE
IN THE AFTERNOON.
CHANCE OF PCPN......40 PERCENT.
CHANCE OF THUNDER...8 PERCENT.
MAX TEMPERATURE.....AROUND 66.
MIN HUMIDITY........63 PERCENT.
SURFACE WINDS (MPH).SOUTH WINDS AROUND 20 TO 25 MPH WITH GUSTS TO
AROUND 40 MPH.
TIME (EDT) 3PM 4PM 5PM
SKY (%).........67 72 82
WEATHER COV..... ISO SCT
WEATHER TYPE.... RW RW
TSTM COV........
CHC OF PCPN (%).10 20 40
CHC OF THDR (%).0 0 10
TEMP............65 64 63
RH..............63 67 70
SURFACE WND DIR.S S S
SURFACE WND SPD.21 21 25
SURFACE WND GST.35 36 40
TONIGHT
SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY CLOUDY (70-80 PERCENT) THEN BECOMING
PARTLY CLOUDY (20-30 PERCENT). GUSTY RAIN SHOWERS
AND POTENTIALLY A THUNDERSTORM BETWEEN 7-10 PM,
THEN ISOLATED RAIN SHOWERS OVERNIGHT.
CHANCE OF PCPN......80 PERCENT.
CHANCE OF THUNDER...12 PERCENT.
MIN TEMPERATURE.....AROUND 44.
MAX HUMIDITY........100 PERCENT.
SURFACE WINDS (MPH).SOUTH WINDS, SHIFTING TO THE WEST BY 10 PM, AT
20 TO 25 MPH WITH GUSTS TO AROUND 40 MPH.
TIME (EDT) 6PM 7PM 8PM 9PM 10P 11P MID 1AM 2AM 3AM 4AM 5AM
SKY (%).........89 88 88 85 79 78 62 37 24 19 36 37
WEATHER COV.....SCT NUM DEF DEF NUM SCT ISO ISO
WEATHER TYPE....RW RW RW RW RW RW RW RW
TSTM COV........
CHC OF PCPN (%).50 60 80 80 70 30 10 10 10 10 20 20
CHC OF THDR (%).10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 0 0 0 0
TEMP............62 58 57 55 52 51 50 48 47 46 46 45
RH..............75 90 96 100 96 89 86 86 79 79 76 76
SURFACE WND DIR.S S SW W W W W W W W W W
SURFACE WND SPD.25 25 25 24 24 22 23 23 21 23 23 22
SURFACE WND GST.40 40 40 38 37 35 33 32 32 33 35 35
FORECASTER...LEDBETTER
REQUESTED BY...R. LINDSAY
TYPE OF REQUEST...SAR
.TAG 2523906.0/LWX
.DELDT 10/19/25
.FORMATTERVERSION 2.0.0
.EMAIL SHEN_COMMUNITACTION@NPS.GOV
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