443
FNUS71 KLWX 272114
FWSLWX
SPOT FORECAST FOR MILLS CREEK 1...USFS
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC
514 PM EDT FRI MAR 27 2026
FORECAST IS BASED ON IGNITION TIME OF 1300 EDT ON MARCH 28.
IF CONDITIONS BECOME UNREPRESENTATIVE...CONTACT THE NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE.
PLEASE CONTACT OUR OFFICE IF YOU HAVE QUESTIONS
OR CONCERNS WITH THIS FORECAST.
DISCUSSION
A COLD FRONT WILL SLIDE SOUTH OF THE AREA THROUGH TONIGHT. HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER THE REGION THROUGH THE WEEKEND, THEN MOVE
OFFSHORE EARLY NEXT WEEK. BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES EXPECTED
TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING. A FRONTAL SYSTEM STALLS NORTHWEST
OF THE AREA NEXT WEEK, BRINGING REPETITIVE CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND
POSSIBLY THUNDERSTORMS.
A DRY AIRMASS IS EXPECTED TO SETTLE OVER THE AREA THIS WEEKEND.
MINIMUM RH VALUES DROP TO 20-30 PERCENT ON SATURDAY, AND 25-35
PERCENT ON SUNDAY. THE LOWEST VALUES SATURDAY ARE EXPECTED EAST OF
THE BLUE RIDGE AND ACROSS THE CENTRAL SHENANDOAH VALLEY WHERE RH
COULD DROP TO THE UPPER TEENS. FIRE WEATHER THREAT SHOULD BE AT
LEAST TAMPERED DUE TO THE WETTING RAINS TODAY (FRIDAY), BUT WILL
NEED TO MONITOR THE SITUATION AS WINDS WILL BE GUSTING AROUND 20-25
MPH SATURDAY AFTERNOON.
SUNDAY MIGHT BE THE MORE FIRE SENSITIVE DAY SINCE FINE FUELS WILL
HAVE A CHANCE TO DRY OUT ON SATURDAY. SEASONAL TEMPERATURES AROUND
60F AND SOUTHWEST WINDS AROUND 10-20 MPH ARE FORECAST SUNDAY.
SATURDAY
SKY/WEATHER.........SUNNY (0-10 PERCENT).
CWR.................0 PERCENT.
CHANCE OF THUNDER...0 PERCENT.
TEMPERATURE.........43 AT IGNITION...MAX 49.
RH..................33 PERCENT AT IGNITION...MIN 25 PERCENT.
WIND (20 FT)........WINDS NORTH AT 6 MPH AT IGNITION...OTHERWISE
NORTH WINDS 5 TO 6 MPH. GUSTS UP TO 20 MPH
EARLY IN THE AFTERNOON.
MIXING HEIGHT.......5000 FT AGL AT IGNITION...OTHERWISE 5400 FT
AGL.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....NORTH 16 TO 22 MPH.
SMOKE DISPERSAL.....EXCELLENT /94600 KNOT-FT/ AT IGNITION.
MAX...EXCELLENT /94600 KNOT-FT/.
TIME (EDT) 1PM 2PM 3PM 4PM 5PM
SKY (%).........10 6 4 4 5
WEATHER COV.....
WEATHER TYPE....
TSTM COV........
CWR.............0 0 0 0 0
CHC OF THDR (%).0 0 0 0 0
TEMP............43 46 47 48 49
RH..............33 29 28 26 25
20 FT WIND DIR..N N N N N
20 FT WIND SPD..6 6 6 6 5
20 FT WIND GUST.20 18 17 17 16
MIX HGT (KFT)...5.0 5.2 5.3 5.4 5.3
TRANSP WIND DIR.N N N N N
TRANSP WIND SPD.22 21 20 17 16
VRATE KT-FT/1K..95 94 91 82 75
VENTRATE CAT....GD GD GD GD GD
SATURDAY NIGHT
SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY CLEAR (5-15 PERCENT).
CWR.................0 PERCENT.
CHANCE OF THUNDER...0 PERCENT.
TEMPERATURE.........MIN 32.
RH..................MAX 58 PERCENT.
WIND (20 FT)........LIGHT WINDS.
MIXING HEIGHT.......200 FT AGL.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....NORTH 5 TO 13 MPH SHIFTING TO THE NORTHEAST
AROUND 3 MPH LATE IN THE EVENING, THEN SHIFTING
TO THE SOUTHEAST 3 TO 5 MPH LATE IN THE EVENING
SHIFTING TO THE SOUTH 5 TO 9 MPH OVERNIGHT.
SMOKE DISPERSAL.....GOOD (49700 KNOT-FT) EARLY IN THE EVENING
DECREASING TO POOR (700 KNOT-FT) LATE IN THE
NIGHT.
TIME (EDT) 6 PM 8 PM 10 PM MIDNGT 2 AM 4 AM
SKY (%).........6 4 5 3 4 12
WEATHER COV.....
WEATHER TYPE....NONE NONE NONE NONE NONE NONE
TSTM COV........
CWR.............0 0 0 0 0 0
CHC OF THDR (%).0 0 0 0 0 0
TEMP............48 44 39 37 34 33
RH..............27 30 42 46 51 56
20 FT WIND......N 3 N 2 W 1 SW 1 S 2 S 2
20 FT WIND GUST.13 8 7 7 7 8
MIX HGT (FT)....4500 400 300 200 200 200
TRANSPORT WIND..N 13 N 6 NE 3 SE 5 S 6 S 8
VRATE KT-FT/1K..50 2 1 1 1 2
VENTRATE CAT....FAIR POOR POOR POOR POOR POOR
SUNDAY
SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY SUNNY (30-40 PERCENT).
CWR.................0 PERCENT.
CHANCE OF THUNDER...0 PERCENT.
TEMPERATURE.........MAX 57.
RH..................MIN 31 PERCENT.
WIND (20 FT)........LIGHT WINDS BECOMING SOUTHWEST 5 TO 9 MPH WITH
GUSTS TO AROUND 24 MPH IN THE LATE MORNING AND
AFTERNOON.
MIXING HEIGHT.......3800 FT AGL.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....SOUTHWEST 10 TO 18 MPH INCREASING TO 21 TO 22
MPH LATE IN THE MORNING.
SMOKE DISPERSAL.....POOR (1800 KNOT-FT) EARLY IN THE MORNING
INCREASING TO EXCELLENT (71600 KNOT-FT) IN THE
AFTERNOON.
TIME (EDT) 6 AM 9 AM NOON 3 PM
SKY (%).........21 29 29 43
WEATHER COV.....
WEATHER TYPE....NONE NONE NONE NONE
TSTM COV........
CWR.............0 0 0 0
CHC OF THDR (%).0 0 0 0
TEMP............33 39 50 56
RH..............58 48 37 32
20 FT WIND......S 2G10 SW 5G15 SW 8G22 SW 9G23
MIX HGT (FT)....200 1000 3000 3800
TRANSPORT WIND..S 10 SW 16 SW 21 SW 22
VRATE KT-FT/1K..2 14 53 72
VENTRATE CAT....POOR POOR FAIR GOOD
FORECASTER...ROSA
REQUESTED BY...JOE JARRELLS
TYPE OF REQUEST...PRESCRIBED
.TAG 2608185.0/LWX
.DELDT 03/27/26
.FORMATTERVERSION 2.0.0
.EMAIL JOSEPH.JARRELLS@USDA.GOV,ADAM.CHRISTIE@USDA.GOV,GEOFFREY.WILSON@USDA.GOV
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