706
FNUS71 KLWX 211909
FWSLWX
SPOT FORECAST FOR LUMINARIA EVENT...NPS
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC
309 PM EDT THU MAY 21 2026
FORECAST IS BASED ON FORECAST START TIME OF 1500 EDT ON MAY 21.
IF CONDITIONS BECOME UNREPRESENTATIVE...CONTACT THE NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE.
PLEASE CONTACT OUR OFFICE IF YOU HAVE QUESTIONS
OR CONCERNS WITH THIS FORECAST.
DISCUSSION
A FRONTAL ZONE CURRENTLY ALONG THE VIRGINIA-NORTH CAROLINA BORDER
WILL CONTINUE TO SAG SOUTHWARD IN TIME OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS.
THIS WILL KEEP A VERY STABLE AIR MASS ACROSS THE AREA AND LIMIT
ANY THUNDERSTORM CHANCES. AS MOISTURE OVERRUNS THIS FRONT, EXPECT
MULTIPLE ROUNDS OF SHOWERS TO IMPACT CENTRAL VIRGINIA THROUGHOUT
THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. ANY FLOODING THREAT WILL BE MINIMAL GIVEN
THE ONGOING DROUGHT CONDITIONS. TOTAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS DURING THE
NEXT 24 HOURS WILL BE AROUND 0.50 TO 1.00 INCHES. WHILE CURRENTLY
DRY, EXPECT RAIN CHANCES TO INCREASE LATER THIS AFTERNOON AS
SHOWERS PUSH NORTHEASTWARD FROM THE I-64 CORRIDOR IN CENTRAL
VIRGINIA. TEMPERATURES REMAIN COOL FOR THE TIME OF YEAR,
ESPECIALLY AFTER THE LENGTHY BOUT OF HEAT EXPERIENCED SINCE LAST
WEEKEND.
REST OF TODAY
SKY/WEATHER.........CLOUDY (95-100 PERCENT). ISOLATED TO SCATTERED
SHOWERS LATE IN THE AFTERNOON.
CHANCE OF PCPN......40 PERCENT.
CHANCE OF THUNDER...0 PERCENT.
MAX TEMPERATURE.....AROUND 71.
MIN HUMIDITY........63 PERCENT.
SURFACE WINDS (MPH).NORTHEAST WINDS 10 TO 15 MPH, GUSTS UP TO 20 MPH.
TIME (EDT) 3PM 4PM 5PM
SKY (%).........99 99 98
WEATHER COV.....ISO ISO SCT
WEATHER TYPE....RW RW RW
TSTM COV........
CHC OF PCPN (%).20 20 40
CHC OF THDR (%). 0 0 0
TEMP............68 67 67
RH..............63 63 63
SURFACE WND DIR.NE NE NE
SURFACE WND SPD.13 13 14
SURFACE WND GST.20 20 21
TONIGHT
SKY/WEATHER.........CLOUDY (90-100 PERCENT). SCATTERED RAIN SHOWERS
EARLY IN THE EVENING, THEN BECOMING WIDESPREAD
RAIN SHOWERS BY 8 PM THIS EVENING.
CHANCE OF PCPN......100 PERCENT.
CHANCE OF THUNDER...0 PERCENT.
MIN TEMPERATURE.....AROUND 53.
MAX HUMIDITY........100 PERCENT.
SURFACE WINDS (MPH).NORTHEAST WINDS 7 TO 13 MPH, GUSTS UP TO 20 MPH.
TIME (EDT) 6PM 7PM 8PM 9PM 10P 11P MID 1AM 2AM 3AM 4AM 5AM
SKY (%).........98 97 93 94 92 92 94 96 96 97 95 97
WEATHER COV.....SCT SCT WID WID WID WID WID WID WID WID WID WID
WEATHER TYPE....RW RW RW RW RW RW RW RW RW RW RW RW
TSTM COV........
CHC OF PCPN (%).40 40 80 80 80 100 100 100 100 100 100 80
CHC OF THDR (%). 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
TEMP............65 65 63 61 60 59 59 58 57 58 56 56
RH..............68 70 81 90 93 100 96 100 100 100 100 100
SURFACE WND DIR.NE NE NE NE NE NE NE NE NE NE NE NE
SURFACE WND SPD.13 13 13 10 9 8 7 7 7 7 7 7
SURFACE WND GST.20 20 16 12 10 9 8 8 8 8 8 8
FRIDAY
SKY/WEATHER.........CLOUDY (90-100 PERCENT). WIDESPREAD RAIN
SHOWERS EARLY IN THE MORNING, THEN RAIN EARLY
IN THE MORNING. RAIN SHOWERS LIKELY LATE IN THE
AFTERNOON.
CHANCE OF PCPN......90 PERCENT.
CHANCE OF THUNDER...0 PERCENT.
MAX TEMPERATURE.....AROUND 63.
MIN HUMIDITY........87 PERCENT.
SURFACE WINDS (MPH).NORTHEAST WINDS 7 TO 12 MPH.
TIME (EDT) 6AM 7AM 8AM 9AM 10A 11A 12P 1PM 2PM 3PM 4PM 5PM
SKY (%).........97 92 93 92 92 94 95 96 95 91 90 90
WEATHER COV.....WID WID DEF DEF DEF DEF DEF DEF DEF DEF DEF LKY
WEATHER TYPE....RW RW RN RN RN RN RN RN RN RN RN RW
TSTM COV........
CHC OF PCPN (%).80 80 90 90 90 90 90 90 80 80 80 70
CHC OF THDR (%). 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
TEMP............55 54 56 57 59 59 60 60 61 61 62 61
RH..............100 100 100 100 100 100 100 100 93 93 90 93
SURFACE WND DIR.NE NE NE NE NE NE NE NE NE NE NE NE
SURFACE WND SPD.7 7 7 8 10 12 12 12 12 12 12 12
SURFACE WND GST.8 8 8 9 12 15 15 15 15 15 15 15
FORECASTER...RUBIN-OSTER
REQUESTED BY...SETH MACEY
TYPE OF REQUEST...OTHER
.TAG 2614242.0/LWX
.DELDT 05/21/26
.FORMATTERVERSION 2.0.0
.EMAIL SETH_MACEY@NPS.GOV
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