075
FNUS71 KLWX 262240
FWSLWX
SPOT FORECAST FOR HORSEHEAD FIRE...SHENANDOAH NATIONAL PARK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC
640 PM EDT WED AUG 26 2026
FORECAST IS BASED ON FORECAST START TIME OF 1800 EDT ON AUGUST 26.
IF CONDITIONS BECOME UNREPRESENTATIVE...CONTACT THE NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE.
PLEASE CONTACT OUR OFFICE IF YOU HAVE QUESTIONS
OR CONCERNS WITH THIS FORECAST.
DISCUSSION
A POP UP SHOWER CAN'T BE RULED OUT OVERNIGHT, BUT MOST OF THE TIME
SHOULD BE PRECIPITATION-FREE WITH INCREASING HUMIDITY. WINDS WILL
BE LIGHT AND MIXING WILL BE POOR UNTIL AFTER DAYBREAK THURSDAY. A
FEW SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MAY DEVELOP THURSDAY AFTERNOON AMID
SOUTHERLY WINDS.
TONIGHT
SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY CLOUDY (65-75 PERCENT) THEN BECOMING
PARTLY CLOUDY (45-55 PERCENT).
CWR.................10 PERCENT.
CHANCE OF THUNDER...7 PERCENT.
MIN TEMPERATURE.....AROUND 66.
MAX HUMIDITY........93 PERCENT.
WIND (20 FT)........SOUTH WINDS 5 TO 7 MPH IN THE EVENING BECOMING
LIGHT.
MIXING HEIGHT.......400 FT AGL.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....SOUTH 7 TO 12 MPH.
SMOKE DISPERSAL.....GOOD (30300 KNOT-FT) EARLY IN THE EVENING
DECREASING TO POOR (2700 KNOT-FT) LATE IN THE
NIGHT.
EYE LEVEL WINDS.....SOUTH WINDS UP TO 4 MPH IN THE EVENING BECOMING
LIGHT.
TIME (EDT) 6PM 7PM 8PM 9PM 10P 11P MID 1AM 2AM 3AM 4AM 5AM
SKY (%).........74 63 66 59 72 82 83 77 57 50 47 48
WEATHER COV.....
WEATHER TYPE....
TSTM COV........
CWR.............0 0 0 0 0 0 0 10 10 10 10 10
CHC OF THDR (%).0 0 0 0 0 0 0 10 10 10 10 10
TEMP............82 81 76 73 73 72 71 70 69 68 68 67
RH..............53 53 60 66 68 73 76 78 81 84 84 87
20 FT WIND DIR..S S S S S S S S S S S S
20 FT WIND SPD..7 6 6 5 5 3 3 3 3 3 3 3
20 FT WIND GUST.13 13 12 12 10 9 9 8 9 8 7 7
EYE LVL WND DIR.S S S S S S S S S S S S
EYE LVL WND SPD.4 4 4 3 3 2 2 2 2 2 2 2
EYE LVL WND GST.8 8 7 7 6 5 5 5 5 5 4 4
MIX HGT (KFT)...3.0 1.1 0.5 0.4 0.5 0.5 0.5 0.5 0.5 0.5 0.5 0.4
TRANSP WIND DIR.S S S S S S S S S S S S
TRANSP WIND SPD.12 9 8 8 7 7 8 8 8 8 7 7
VRATE KT-FT/1K..30 9 3 3 3 3 3 3 4 3 3 3
VENTRATE CAT....PR PR PR PR PR PR PR PR PR PR PR PR
THURSDAY
SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY SUNNY (40-50 PERCENT). PATCHY FOG EARLY
IN THE MORNING. CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS LATE IN THE AFTERNOON.
CWR.................10 PERCENT INCREASING TO 50 PERCENT.
CHANCE OF THUNDER...46 PERCENT.
MAX TEMPERATURE.....AROUND 90.
MIN HUMIDITY........48 PERCENT.
WIND (20 FT)........LIGHT WINDS BECOMING SOUTH 5 TO 7 MPH LATE IN
THE MORNING, THEN BECOMING AROUND 6 MPH LATE IN
THE AFTERNOON. GUSTY AND ERRATIC WINDS EXPECTED
NEAR THUNDERSTORMS LATE IN THE AFTERNOON.
MIXING HEIGHT.......7400 FT AGL.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....SOUTHWEST 7 TO 12 MPH.
SMOKE DISPERSAL.....POOR (2600 KNOT-FT) EARLY IN THE MORNING
INCREASING TO EXCELLENT (66800 KNOT-FT) IN THE
AFTERNOON.
EYE LEVEL WINDS.....LIGHT WINDS BECOMING SOUTH UP TO 4 MPH LATE IN
THE MORNING, THEN BECOMING AROUND 4 MPH LATE IN
THE AFTERNOON.
TIME (EDT) 6AM 7AM 8AM 9AM 10A 11A 12P 1PM 2PM 3PM 4PM 5PM
SKY (%).........43 38 33 44 29 50 24 41 52 60 65 65
WEATHER COV.....PTY PTY CHC CHC CHC CHC
WEATHER TYPE....FOG FOG RW RW RW RW
TSTM COV........ CHC CHC CHC CHC
CWR.............10 0 10 10 10 10 10 10 30 40 50 50
CHC OF THDR (%).10 0 10 10 10 10 10 10 30 30 30 50
TEMP............68 66 68 71 77 81 85 86 87 88 86 85
RH..............84 93 90 84 71 63 53 51 52 48 53 57
20 FT WIND DIR..S S SW SW SW SW SW S S S S S
20 FT WIND SPD..2 2 2 2 3 5 6 6 7 7 7 6
20 FT WIND GUST.6 7 7 8 9 12 12 13 14 14 14 13
EYE LVL WND DIR.S S SW SW SW SW SW S S S S S
EYE LVL WND SPD.1 1 1 1 2 3 4 4 4 4 4 4
EYE LVL WND GST.4 4 4 5 5 7 7 8 8 8 8 8
MIX HGT (KFT)...0.4 0.4 0.5 1.4 2.1 3.1 4.1 4.7 5.3 7.4 5.8 3.3
TRANSP WIND DIR.S S S SW SW SW S S S S S S
TRANSP WIND SPD.7 7 7 8 8 9 10 12 12 10 10 10
VRATE KT-FT/1K..3 3 3 10 15 25 37 47 53 67 52 30
VENTRATE CAT....PR PR PR PR PR PR PR FR FR GD FR PR
THURSDAY NIGHT
SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY CLOUDY (65-75 PERCENT) THEN BECOMING
PARTLY CLOUDY (40-50 PERCENT) THEN BECOMING
MOSTLY CLOUDY (60-70 PERCENT). CHANCE OF
THUNDERSTORMS IN THE EVENING. CHANCE OF SHOWERS
IN THE EVENING. PATCHY FOG OVERNIGHT.
CWR.................50 PERCENT DECREASING TO 10 PERCENT.
CHANCE OF THUNDER...46 PERCENT.
MIN TEMPERATURE.....AROUND 64.
MAX HUMIDITY........100 PERCENT.
WIND (20 FT)........SOUTH WINDS AROUND 5 MPH EARLY IN THE EVENING
BECOMING LIGHT. GUSTY AND ERRATIC WINDS
EXPECTED NEAR THUNDERSTORMS IN THE EVENING.
MIXING HEIGHT.......400 FT AGL.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....SOUTHWEST 5 TO 7 MPH SHIFTING TO THE WEST 5 TO
6 MPH AFTER 3 AM.
SMOKE DISPERSAL.....POOR (1700 KNOT-FT).
EYE LEVEL WINDS.....SOUTH WINDS AROUND 3 MPH EARLY IN THE EVENING
BECOMING LIGHT.
TIME (EDT) 6PM 7PM 8PM 9PM 10P 11P MID 1AM 2AM 3AM 4AM 5AM
SKY (%).........67 67 61 66 71 63 81 59 58 47 58 70
WEATHER COV.....CHC CHC CHC CHC CHC CHC PTY PTY PTY PTY PTY PTY
WEATHER TYPE....RW RW RW RW RW RW FOG FOG FOG FOG FOG FOG
TSTM COV........CHC CHC CHC CHC CHC
CWR.............50 50 40 30 30 30 10 0 0 0 0 0
CHC OF THDR (%).50 50 30 30 30 10 10 0 0 0 0 0
TEMP............82 78 75 72 71 70 69 68 68 67 66 66
RH..............63 69 76 81 84 87 90 93 93 93 97 93
20 FT WIND DIR..S SE SE S SW W W N N N W NW
20 FT WIND SPD..5 3 2 2 1 1 1 0 0 0 1 1
20 FT WIND GUST.12 9 8 7 6 6 5 5 3 5 5 5
EYE LVL WND DIR.S SE SE S SW W W N N N W NW
EYE LVL WND SPD.3 2 1 1 1 1 1 0 0 0 1 1
EYE LVL WND GST.7 5 5 4 4 4 3 3 2 3 3 3
MIX HGT (KFT)...2.1 1.0 0.5 0.5 0.5 0.5 0.5 0.4 0.4 0.4 0.5 0.4
TRANSP WIND DIR.S S S S SW SW SW SW W W W NW
TRANSP WIND SPD.7 6 6 5 5 6 6 5 5 5 6 6
VRATE KT-FT/1K..12 5 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2
VENTRATE CAT....PR PR PR PR PR PR PR PR PR PR PR PR
FRIDAY
SKY/WEATHER.........PARTLY SUNNY (50-60 PERCENT). PATCHY FOG EARLY
IN THE MORNING. CHANCE OF SHOWERS LATE IN THE
AFTERNOON. SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS LATE
IN THE AFTERNOON.
CWR.................10 PERCENT INCREASING TO 30 PERCENT LATE IN THE
AFTERNOON.
CHANCE OF THUNDER...23 PERCENT.
MAX TEMPERATURE.....AROUND 87.
MIN HUMIDITY........59 PERCENT.
WIND (20 FT)........LIGHT WINDS. GUSTY AND ERRATIC WINDS EXPECTED
NEAR THUNDERSTORMS LATE IN THE AFTERNOON.
MIXING HEIGHT.......5500 FT AGL.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....NORTHWEST 5 TO 6 MPH SHIFTING TO THE NORTHEAST
AROUND 6 MPH LATE IN THE AFTERNOON.
SMOKE DISPERSAL.....POOR (800 KNOT-FT) EARLY IN THE MORNING
INCREASING TO FAIR (27400 KNOT-FT) IN THE
AFTERNOON.
EYE LEVEL WINDS.....LIGHT WINDS.
TIME (EDT) 6AM 7AM 8AM 9AM 10A 11A 12P 1PM 2PM 3PM 4PM 5PM
SKY (%).........72 75 65 65 52 39 46 53 60 58 57 55
WEATHER COV.....PTY PTY CHC CHC CHC CHC
WEATHER TYPE....FOG FOG RW RW RW RW
TSTM COV........ SCH
CWR.............10 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 30 30 30 30
CHC OF THDR (%).0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 10 10 10 20
TEMP............65 64 66 69 73 78 81 83 84 84 84 82
RH..............97 100 100 97 87 74 67 61 59 59 59 63
20 FT WIND DIR..NW NW NW N N N N N NE NE E E
20 FT WIND SPD..1 1 1 1 1 2 2 3 3 3 3 3
20 FT WIND GUST.5 5 5 5 5 6 6 7 7 7 8 8
EYE LVL WND DIR.NW NW NW N N N N N NE NE E E
EYE LVL WND SPD.1 1 1 1 1 1 1 2 2 2 2 2
EYE LVL WND GST.3 3 3 3 3 4 4 4 4 4 5 5
MIX HGT (KFT)...0.3 0.2 0.3 0.9 1.7 2.6 3.8 4.9 5.5 4.9 3.7 2.5
TRANSP WIND DIR.NW NW NW NW N N N NW NW N NE E
TRANSP WIND SPD.6 5 5 5 5 5 5 6 6 6 6 6
VRATE KT-FT/1K..1 1 1 3 7 10 15 25 27 25 19 12
VENTRATE CAT....PR PR PR PR PR PR PR PR PR PR PR PR
FORECASTER...HOFMANN
REQUESTED BY...QUINN ROBINSON
TYPE OF REQUEST...WILDFIRE
.TAG 2620629.0/LWX
.DELDT 08/26/26
.FORMATTERVERSION 2.0.0
.EMAIL SHEN_COMMUNICATION@NPS.GOV,QUINN_ROBINSON@NPS.GOV,CHRISTOPHER_HOOVER@NPS.GOV
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