087
FNUS71 KLWX 241406
FWSLWX
SPOT FORECAST FOR MT. JOY NAP RX BURN...VIRGINIA DEPARTMENT OF CONSERVATION AND
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC
1006 AM EDT MON AUG 24 2026
FORECAST IS BASED ON IGNITION TIME OF 0800 EDT ON AUGUST 25.
IF CONDITIONS BECOME UNREPRESENTATIVE...CONTACT THE NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE.
PLEASE CONTACT OUR OFFICE IF YOU HAVE QUESTIONS
OR CONCERNS WITH THIS FORECAST.
DISCUSSION
WITH HIGH PRESSURE TRACKING IN FROM THE TENNESSEE AND OHIO VALLEYS
THROUGH TUESDAY, THIS WILL LARGELY KEEP GRADIENTS WEAKER AND THUS
MAINTAIN LIGHTER, MORE VARIABLE WIND FIELDS. AS A COLD FRONT
APPROACHES FROM THE WEST, THE MID-WEEK WINDS TURN MORE SOUTHERLY
WITH AFTERNOON GUSTS POSSIBLY UP TO AROUND 15 TO 20 MPH.
DAYTIME RELATIVE HUMIDITY LEVELS WILL BE LOWER THAN RECENT WEEKS,
WITH VALUES STICKING AROUND 30 PERCENT ON TUESDAY. THIS IS
ACCOMPANIED BY MODERATE OVERNIGHT RECOVERIES.
THERE WILL BE AN UPTICK IN RAIN CHANCES BY MID-WEEK, BUT
PARTICULARLY BY THURSDAY WHICH MAY INCLUDE SOME STRONG TO SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS.
TUESDAY
SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY SUNNY (20-30 PERCENT).
CWR.................0 PERCENT.
MAX TEMPERATURE.....AROUND 81.
MIN HUMIDITY........30 PERCENT.
WIND (20 FT)........LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS.
MIXING HEIGHT.......6800 FT AGL.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....NORTHWEST 5 TO 7 MPH SHIFTING TO THE WEST
AROUND 6 MPH LATE IN THE AFTERNOON.
SMOKE DISPERSAL.....POOR (2300 KNOT-FT) EARLY IN THE MORNING
INCREASING TO GOOD (40600 KNOT-FT) IN THE
AFTERNOON.
TIME (EDT) 8AM 9AM 10A 11A 12P 1PM 2PM 3PM 4PM 5PM
SKY (%).........11 21 15 18 18 19 12 15 20 40
WEATHER COV.....
WEATHER TYPE....
TSTM COV........
CWR.............0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
TEMP............57 61 68 71 73 76 78 79 80 78
RH..............72 65 51 47 43 39 36 33 31 34
20 FT WIND DIR..SW N NW NW NW W W SW SW SW
20 FT WIND SPD..2 1 1 2 2 2 2 2 2 2
20 FT WIND GUST.6 5 6 6 6 6 7 7 7 7
MIX HGT (KFT)...0.5 1.4 2.4 3.5 4.3 4.9 5.3 6.5 6.8 6.0
TRANSP WIND DIR.NW N N N NW W W W W W
TRANSP WIND SPD.6 6 6 5 5 5 5 6 7 6
VRATE KT-FT/1K..2 7 12 14 17 19 21 32 41 30
VENTRATE CAT....PR PR PR PR PR PR PR PR FR PR
TUESDAY NIGHT
SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY CLEAR (20-30 PERCENT).
CWR.................0 PERCENT.
MIN TEMPERATURE.....AROUND 59.
MAX HUMIDITY........75 PERCENT.
WIND (20 FT)........LIGHT WINDS.
MIXING HEIGHT.......400 FT AGL.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....SOUTHWEST AROUND 7 MPH SHIFTING TO THE SOUTH 5
TO 7 MPH.
SMOKE DISPERSAL.....GOOD (32300 KNOT-FT) EARLY IN THE EVENING
DECREASING TO POOR (1700 KNOT-FT) LATE IN THE
NIGHT.
TIME (EDT) 6PM 7PM 8PM 9PM 10P 11P MID 1AM 2AM 3AM 4AM 5AM
SKY (%).........29 38 28 18 22 25 21 16 12 14 17 19
WEATHER COV.....
WEATHER TYPE....
TSTM COV........
CWR.............0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
TEMP............77 75 70 68 67 66 65 63 61 60 59 59
RH..............37 41 51 54 56 58 60 65 70 72 75 75
20 FT WIND DIR..S S SE SE SE E E NE NE NE NE NE
20 FT WIND SPD..2 2 2 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1
20 FT WIND GUST.8 7 7 6 5 5 5 5 5 5 5 5
MIX HGT (KFT)...5.4 1.2 0.4 0.5 0.5 0.5 0.4 0.4 0.4 0.4 0.4 0.4
TRANSP WIND DIR.SW S S SE SE S S S S S S SE
TRANSP WIND SPD.7 7 6 6 6 5 5 5 6 5 5 5
VRATE KT-FT/1K..32 7 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2
VENTRATE CAT....PR PR PR PR PR PR PR PR PR PR PR PR
WEDNESDAY
SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY SUNNY (30-40 PERCENT).
CWR.................10 PERCENT.
MAX TEMPERATURE.....AROUND 83.
MIN HUMIDITY........47 PERCENT.
WIND (20 FT)........LIGHT WINDS BECOMING SOUTH 5 TO 7 MPH LATE IN
THE MORNING, WITH GUSTS UP TO 15 MPH DURING THE
AFTERNOON.
MIXING HEIGHT.......6600 FT AGL.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....SOUTH 5 TO 14 MPH.
SMOKE DISPERSAL.....POOR (500 KNOT-FT) EARLY IN THE MORNING
INCREASING TO EXCELLENT (78600 KNOT-FT) IN THE
AFTERNOON.
TIME (EDT) 6AM 7AM 8AM 9AM 10A 11A 12P 1PM 2PM 3PM 4PM 5PM
SKY (%).........20 21 22 25 27 30 33 37 40 43 46 49
WEATHER COV.....
WEATHER TYPE....
TSTM COV........
CWR.............0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 10 10 10 10
TEMP............59 60 62 67 72 76 79 81 82 82 81 79
RH..............75 72 70 63 57 54 50 49 47 47 51 54
20 FT WIND DIR..NE E SE SE S S S S S S S S
20 FT WIND SPD..1 1 1 2 3 5 6 7 7 7 7 6
20 FT WIND GUST.5 5 5 6 8 10 13 14 15 16 16 15
MIX HGT (KFT)...0.2 0.1 0.4 1.4 2.7 3.9 4.8 5.4 5.8 6.3 6.6 6.1
TRANSP WIND DIR.SE S S S S SW SW SW SW SW SW SW
TRANSP WIND SPD.5 5 5 7 9 12 13 13 13 14 14 14
VRATE KT-FT/1K..1 1 2 8 22 39 53 59 64 76 79 74
VENTRATE CAT....PR PR PR PR PR PR FR FR GD GD GD GD
FORECASTER...RUBIN-OSTER
REQUESTED BY...TYLER URGO
TYPE OF REQUEST...PRESCRIBED
.TAG 2620367.0/LWX
.DELDT 08/24/26
.FORMATTERVERSION 2.0.0
.EMAIL TYLER.URGO@DCR.VIRGINIA.GOV
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