300
FNUS71 KLWX 181955
FWSLWX
SPOT FORECAST FOR ALLEGANY COUNTY BRUSH FIRE...MDEM
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC
355 PM EDT SAT APR 18 2026
FORECAST IS BASED ON FORECAST START TIME OF 1600 EDT ON APRIL 18.
IF CONDITIONS BECOME UNREPRESENTATIVE...CONTACT THE NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE.
PLEASE CONTACT OUR OFFICE IF YOU HAVE QUESTIONS
OR CONCERNS WITH THIS FORECAST.
DISCUSSION
A COLD FRONT APPROACHING THE APPALACHIANS WILL CROSS THE MID-
ATLANTIC TONIGHT, THEN MOVE OFFSHORE SUNDAY MORNING. A SECONDARY
COLD FRONT WILL FOLLOW IN ITS WAKE SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY
MORNING. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN BEHIND THESE FRONTS LATE
MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY. ANOTHER FRONT LOOKS TO DROP IN FROM THE
NORTH WEDNESDAY, THEN CROSSES BY THURSDAY BEFORE RETURNING NORTH
LATE IN THE WEEK.
WHILE SOME RAIN IS EXPECTED LATE THIS EVENING INTO SUNDAY
MORNING, AMOUNTS OF A TENTH TO TWO TENTHS ON AVERAGE WILL NOT BE
SUFFICIENT TO WET FUELS SIGNIFICANTLY. IT SHOULD BE NOTED SOME HI-
RES GUIDANCE DOES HAVE LOCALIZED AMOUNTS NEAR A HALF AN INCH, BUT
PINPOINTING THE EXACT LOCATIONS OF THESE SPOTTY AMOUNTS IS VERY
DIFFICULT. STRONG GUSTY WINDS OF 35 MPH WITH POTENTIAL FOR GUSTS
AS HIGH AS 45 MPH WILL CREATE RENEWED FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS
DESPITE MARGINAL HUMIDITIES AND THE OVERALL LIGHT RAINFALL SUNDAY
INTO MONDAY. GIVEN THE SHORT DURATION OF PRECIPITATION (6 HOURS OR
LESS FOR MOST), THE 100-HOUR FUEL MOISTURE VALUES AREN'T LIKELY
TO RISE MUCH AT ALL. THE 10-HOUR FUEL MOISTURE LIKELY RISES
CONSIDERABLY, BUT DROPS QUICKLY THROUGH THE DAY SUNDAY DUE TO THE
DRYING EFFECTS OF STRONG WINDS AND RAPIDLY LOWERING HUMIDITY
ESPECIALLY WEST OF THE BLUE RIDGE AND CATOCTIN MOUNTAINS.
MUCH COOLER TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED MONDAY AND TUESDAY WITH A
MODERATING TREND IN TEMPERATURES EXPECTED DURING THE MIDDLE AND
SECOND HALF OF THE WEEK. STRONGEST WINDS LOOK TO BE ON MONDAY OUT
OF THE NORTHWEST WITH GUSTS TO 25 MPH (30 MPH OVER RIDGES). FOR
THE REST OF THE WEEK, WINDS WILL BE ON LIGHT SIDE THANKS TO HIGH
PRESSURE OVERHEAD, BUT HUMIDITIES WILL BE MARGINALLY LOW TO NEAR
CRITICAL LEVELS. A DRY PATTERN SEEMS LIKELY TO CONTINUE WITH
LITTLE TO NO RAINFALL.
REST OF TODAY
SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY SUNNY (40-50 PERCENT). ISOLATED SHOWERS
LATE IN THE AFTERNOON.
CWR.................10 PERCENT INCREASING TO 20 PERCENT LATE IN THE
AFTERNOON.
CHANCE OF THUNDER...14 PERCENT.
MAX TEMPERATURE.....AROUND 86.
MIN HUMIDITY........31 PERCENT.
WIND (20 FT)........SOUTH WINDS 10 MPH.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....SOUTH AROUND 21 MPH.
SMOKE DISPERSAL.....EXCELLENT (136200 KNOT-FT).
EYE LEVEL WINDS.....SOUTH WINDS 5 MPH.
TIME (EDT) 4PM 5PM
SKY (%).........30 60
WEATHER COV..... ISO
WEATHER TYPE.... RW
TSTM COV........
CWR.............10 20
CHC OF THDR (%).0 10
TEMP............85 83
RH..............32 33
20 FT WIND DIR..S S
20 FT WIND SPD..9 10
20 FT WIND GUST.20 20
EYE LVL WND DIR.S S
EYE LVL WND SPD.5 6
EYE LVL WND GST.12 12
TRANSP WIND DIR.S S
TRANSP WIND SPD.21 21
VRATE KT-FT/1K..158 136
VENTRATE CAT....EXL VGD
TONIGHT
SKY/WEATHER.........CLOUDY (85-95 PERCENT). RAIN SHOWERS AND
SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS IN THE EVENING, THEN
NUMEROUS RAIN SHOWERS OVERNIGHT.
CWR.................40 PERCENT, THEN INCREASING TO 60 PERCENT
EARLY IN THE EVENING INCREASING TO 100 PERCENT
LATE IN THE EVENING DECREASING TO 50 PERCENT
OVERNIGHT.
CHANCE OF THUNDER...25 PERCENT.
MIN TEMPERATURE.....AROUND 44.
MAX HUMIDITY........80 PERCENT.
WIND (20 FT)........SOUTHWEST WINDS 8 MPH WITH GUSTS TO AROUND
20 MPH SHIFTING TO THE WEST AROUND 6 MPH LATE
IN THE EVENING, THEN SHIFTING TO THE SOUTHWEST
LATE IN THE EVENING SHIFTING TO THE NORTHWEST 8
TO 16 MPH OVERNIGHT. GUSTY AND ERRATIC WINDS
EXPECTED NEAR THUNDERSTORMS EARLY IN THE
EVENING.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....SOUTHWEST 10 TO 20 MPH SHIFTING TO THE
NORTHWEST 18 TO 26 MPH OVERNIGHT.
SMOKE DISPERSAL.....GOOD (57500 KNOT-FT) EARLY IN THE EVENING
DECREASING TO POOR (6100 KNOT-FT) LATE IN THE
NIGHT.
EYE LEVEL WINDS.....SOUTHWEST WINDS AROUND 5 MPH WITH GUSTS TO
AROUND 12 MPH SHIFTING TO THE NORTHWEST 4 TO 8
MPH OVERNIGHT.
TIME (EDT) 6PM 7PM 8PM 9PM 10P 11P MID 1AM 2AM 3AM 4AM 5AM
SKY (%).........80 86 92 97 92 93 96 90 95 93 96 95
WEATHER COV.....SCT SCT NUM DEF DEF NUM NUM SCT NUM NUM NUM SCT
WEATHER TYPE....RW RW RW RW RW RW RW RW RW RW RW RW
TSTM COV........ SCT SCT SCT
CWR.............40 30 60 100 90 70 70 50 60 70 60 50
CHC OF THDR (%).10 10 30 30 30 10 10 10 10 10 10 0
TEMP............82 80 76 72 70 67 66 65 61 55 50 48
RH..............37 41 50 61 68 75 75 75 78 77 80 77
20 FT WIND DIR..SW SW W W SW SW W W NW NW NW NW
20 FT WIND SPD..9 9 8 6 6 6 6 8 10 12 13 14
20 FT WIND GUST.20 20 17 14 13 13 14 16 18 20 23 24
EYE LVL WND DIR.SW SW W W SW SW W W NW NW NW NW
EYE LVL WND SPD.5 5 5 4 4 4 4 5 6 7 8 8
EYE LVL WND GST.12 12 10 8 8 8 8 10 11 12 14 14
TRANSP WIND DIR.S S SW W W W W W NW NW NW NW
TRANSP WIND SPD.17 12 13 14 9 8 8 12 18 23 25 26
VRATE KT-FT/1K..57 14 12 13 8 6 6 15 33 46 54 58
VENTRATE CAT....FR PR PR PR PR PR PR PR PR FR FR FR
SUNDAY
SKY/WEATHER.........CLOUDY (85-95 PERCENT) THEN BECOMING MOSTLY
SUNNY (40-50 PERCENT). NUMEROUS RAIN SHOWERS
EARLY IN THE MORNING.
CWR.................50 PERCENT INCREASING TO 60 PERCENT EARLY IN
THE MORNING, DECREASING TO 10 PERCENT LATE
MORNING AND AFTERNOON.
CHANCE OF THUNDER...3 PERCENT.
MAX TEMPERATURE.....AROUND 55.
MIN HUMIDITY........29 PERCENT.
WIND (20 FT)........NORTHWEST WINDS 14 TO 16 MPH.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....NORTHWEST 23 TO 32 MPH INCREASING TO AROUND 35
MPH LATE IN THE AFTERNOON.
SMOKE DISPERSAL.....GOOD (57400 KNOT-FT) EARLY IN THE MORNING
INCREASING TO EXCELLENT (145200 KNOT-FT) IN THE
AFTERNOON INCREASING TO EXCELLENT (170800
KNOT-FT) IN THE AFTERNOON.
EYE LEVEL WINDS.....NORTHWEST WINDS 8 TO 10 MPH.
TIME (EDT) 6AM 7AM 8AM 9AM 10A 11A 12P 1PM 2PM 3PM 4PM 5PM
SKY (%).........96 95 94 92 79 66 54 54 30 27 25 22
WEATHER COV.....SCT NUM SCT
WEATHER TYPE....RW RW RW
TSTM COV........
CWR.............50 60 30 10 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
CHC OF THDR (%).0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
TEMP............46 44 45 45 46 48 50 52 55 54 55 55
RH..............76 76 70 68 60 51 44 39 32 34 31 29
20 FT WIND DIR..NW NW NW NW NW NW NW NW NW NW NW NW
20 FT WIND SPD..14 14 14 14 14 15 16 16 16 15 15 15
20 FT WIND GUST.24 24 24 24 24 24 25 25 25 25 25 23
EYE LVL WND DIR.NW NW NW NW NW NW NW NW NW NW NW NW
EYE LVL WND SPD.8 8 8 8 8 9 10 10 10 9 9 9
EYE LVL WND GST.14 14 14 14 14 14 15 15 15 15 15 14
TRANSP WIND DIR.NW NW NW NW NW NW NW NW NW NW NW NW
TRANSP WIND SPD.28 26 23 26 29 31 32 32 35 35 35 35
VRATE KT-FT/1K..65 58 57 83 111 145 171 195 227 238 253 258
VENTRATE CAT....GD FR FR GD VGD VGD EXL EXL EXL EXL EXL EXL
FORECASTER...WITT
REQUESTED BY...MJOC
TYPE OF REQUEST...WILDFIRE
.TAG 2610684.0/LWX
.DELDT 04/18/26
.FORMATTERVERSION 2.0.0
.EMAIL MJOC.MDEM@MARYLAND.GOV
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