780
FNUS71 KRNK 021223
FWSRNK
SPOT FORECAST FOR BIG NEAL...USFS
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA
823 AM EDT THU APR 2 2026
FORECAST IS BASED ON IGNITION TIME OF 0500 EDT ON APRIL 03.
IF CONDITIONS BECOME UNREPRESENTATIVE, CONTACT THE NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE.
DISCUSSION
PATCHY FOG MAY BE PRESENT LOWER IN THE VALLEY NEAR THE BURN LOCATION
DURING THE EARLY MORNING HOURS ON FRIDAY. THIS FOG SHOULD QUICKLY
DISSIPATE BY THE 8-9AM TIMEFRAME AS THE SUN RISES AND STARTS TO
QUICKLY MIX OUT ANY FOG THAT DOES DEVELOP. WITH THE BURN LOCATED
SLIGHTLY CLOSER TO THE RIDGELINE, ANY FOG SHOULD LIFT SOONER GIVEN
ITS PROXIMITY TO RIDGELINE COMPARED TO THE VALLEY. ONCE WINDS DO
START TO PICK UP THROUGH THE MID MORNING HOURS, THEY LOOK TO REMAIN
OUT OF THE SOUTHWEST AT AROUND 5-10 MPH THROUGHOUT THE DAY ON FRIDAY.
WIND GUSTS OF 15 TO NEAR 20 MPH WILL BE POSSIBLE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON
AT TIMES DURING PEAK MIXING. AN ISOLATED SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM CAN'T
BE RULED OUT DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS ON FRIDAY; HOWEVER, CHANCES ARE
QUITE LOW AT AROUND 15-20%. MINIMUM RH VALUES LOOK TO BE IDEAL WITH
VALUES DROPPING INTO THE UPPER 30S TO LOW 40S. MIXING HEIGHTS WILL BUILD
TO AROUND 5.1 KFT TOMORROW AFTERNOON, WHICH COMBINED WITH THE AFOREMENTIONED
WINDS WILL LEAD TO IDEAL DISPERSIONS FOR SMOKE ON FRIDAY. OVERALL, THERE
ARE NO CONCERNS WITH BURNING FRIDAY.
REST OF TONIGHT
SKY/WEATHER.........PARTLY CLOUDY (45-55 PERCENT).
CWR (0.01 IN).......0 PERCENT.
MIN TEMPERATURE.....AROUND 55.
MAX HUMIDITY........86 PERCENT.
WIND (20 FT)........SOUTHWEST WINDS 5 TO 8 MPH.
MIXING HEIGHT.......900 FT AGL.
MIXING WINDS........SOUTH AROUND 12 MPH.
SMOKE DISPERSAL.....POOR (9000 KNOT-FT).
LVORI...............4.
ADI.................10.
TIME (EDT) 5AM
SKY (%).........50
WEATHER COV.....
WEATHER TYPE....
TSTM COV........
CWR.............0
TEMP............57
RH..............82
20 FT WIND DIR..SW
20 FT WIND SPD..8
20 FT WIND GUST.13
MIX HGT (KFT)...0.9
MIXNG WIND DIR..S
MIXNG WIND SPD..12
LVORI...........4
ADI.............10
VRATE MPH-FT/1K.11
FRIDAY
SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY SUNNY (45-55 PERCENT). SLIGHT CHANCE OF
RAIN SHOWERS LATE IN THE AFTERNOON.
CWR (0.01 IN).......0 PERCENT INCREASING TO 20 PERCENT LATE IN THE
AFTERNOON.
MAX TEMPERATURE.....AROUND 75.
MIN HUMIDITY........43 PERCENT.
WIND (20 FT)........SOUTHWEST WINDS 5 TO 8 MPH. GUSTY AND ERRATIC
WINDS EXPECTED NEAR THUNDERSTORMS LATE IN THE
AFTERNOON.
MIXING HEIGHT.......5100 FT AGL.
MIXING WINDS........SOUTHWEST 12 TO 17 MPH.
SMOKE DISPERSAL.....POOR (9300 KNOT-FT) EARLY IN THE MORNING
INCREASING TO EXCELLENT (67500 KNOT-FT) IN THE
AFTERNOON.
LVORI...............3.
ADI.................12 EARLY IN THE MORNING INCREASING TO 69 IN THE
AFTERNOON.
TIME (EDT) 6AM 7AM 8AM 9AM 10A 11A 12P 1PM 2PM 3PM 4PM 5PM
SKY (%).........48 52 48 29 40 51 53 57 59 62 63 66
WEATHER COV..... SCH SCH SCH SCH
WEATHER TYPE.... RW RW RW RW
TSTM COV........ SCH
CWR.............0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 20 20 20 20
TEMP............56 56 56 58 62 66 69 72 73 75 75 75
RH..............83 84 86 79 70 61 55 50 46 44 43 44
20 FT WIND DIR..SW SW SW SW SW SW SW SW SW SW SW SW
20 FT WIND SPD..8 7 7 7 7 8 7 7 7 7 6 6
20 FT WIND GUST.13 13 12 13 14 14 14 14 14 14 14 13
MIX HGT (KFT)...0.8 0.8 0.8 1.4 1.9 2.5 3.4 4.3 5.1 4.9 4.6 4.4
MIXNG WIND DIR..S SW SW SW SW SW SW SW SW SW SW SW
MIXNG WIND SPD..14 16 17 16 14 12 13 14 15 16 16 16
LVORI...........4 4 4 3 3 2 1 1 1 1 1 1
ADI.............12 17 18 30 32 37 51 69 46 48 48 47
VRATE MPH-FT/1K.11 12 15 23 25 30 42 58 77 78 76 72
FRIDAY NIGHT
SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY CLOUDY (60-70 PERCENT) THEN BECOMING
PARTLY CLOUDY (35-45 PERCENT). SLIGHT CHANCE OF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS EARLY IN THE EVENING.
CWR (0.01 IN).......20 PERCENT DECREASING TO 10 PERCENT EARLY IN
THE EVENING.
MIN TEMPERATURE.....AROUND 54.
MAX HUMIDITY........91 PERCENT.
WIND (20 FT)........SOUTHWEST WINDS 5 TO 6 MPH. GUSTY AND ERRATIC
WINDS EXPECTED NEAR THUNDERSTORMS EARLY IN THE
EVENING.
MIXING HEIGHT.......500 FT AGL.
MIXING WINDS........SOUTHWEST 7 TO 16 MPH DECREASING TO 3 TO 5 MPH
LATE IN THE EVENING.
SMOKE DISPERSAL.....GOOD (43400 KNOT-FT) EARLY IN THE EVENING
DECREASING TO POOR (1400 KNOT-FT) LATE IN THE
NIGHT.
LVORI...............4.
ADI.................2 TO 39.
TIME (EDT) 6PM 7PM 8PM 9PM 10P 11P MID 1AM 2AM 3AM 4AM 5AM
SKY (%).........70 75 79 71 62 54 51 48 45 39 33 27
WEATHER COV.....SCH SCH
WEATHER TYPE....RW RW
TSTM COV........SCH SCH
CWR.............20 20 10 10 10 10 10 10 0 0 0 0
TEMP............73 71 68 66 64 62 61 60 59 58 57 57
RH..............47 51 57 62 68 73 77 80 83 84 84 85
20 FT WIND DIR..SW SW SW SW SW SW SW SW SW SW W W
20 FT WIND SPD..6 6 6 6 6 6 6 6 5 5 5 5
20 FT WIND GUST.12 11 10 10 10 10 10 8 8 7 7 6
MIX HGT (KFT)...3.2 2.0 0.7 0.6 0.6 0.5 0.5 0.5 0.5 0.5 0.5 0.5
MIXNG WIND DIR..SW SW SW SW SW SW SW SW SW SW W W
MIXNG WIND SPD..16 15 13 10 7 5 5 5 5 5 3 3
LVORI...........1 2 3 3 3 3 4 5 5 5 5 6
ADI.............39 10 8 7 5 3 3 3 3 2 2 2
VRATE MPH-FT/1K.50 28 9 7 4 2 2 2 2 2 2 2
SATURDAY
SKY/WEATHER.........SUNNY (20-30 PERCENT) THEN BECOMING PARTLY
SUNNY (55-65 PERCENT). SLIGHT CHANCE OF
THUNDERSTORMS LATE IN THE AFTERNOON.
CWR (0.01 IN).......10 PERCENT INCREASING TO 40 PERCENT LATE IN THE
AFTERNOON.
MAX TEMPERATURE.....AROUND 77.
MIN HUMIDITY........44 PERCENT.
WIND (20 FT)........LIGHT WINDS BECOMING SOUTH 5 TO 9 MPH WITH
GUSTS TO AROUND 17 MPH IN THE LATE MORNING AND
AFTERNOON. GUSTY AND ERRATIC WINDS EXPECTED
NEAR THUNDERSTORMS LATE IN THE AFTERNOON.
MIXING HEIGHT.......6600 FT AGL.
MIXING WINDS........WEST 2 TO 10 MPH SHIFTING TO THE SOUTHWEST 12
TO 17 MPH IN THE AFTERNOON.
SMOKE DISPERSAL.....POOR (700 KNOT-FT) EARLY IN THE MORNING
INCREASING TO EXCELLENT (89300 KNOT-FT) IN THE
AFTERNOON.
LVORI...............4.
ADI.................1 EARLY IN THE MORNING INCREASING TO 70 IN THE
AFTERNOON.
TIME (EDT) 6AM 7AM 8AM 9AM 10A 11A 12P 1PM 2PM 3PM 4PM 5PM
SKY (%).........26 25 24 22 21 19 25 30 61 61 61 61
WEATHER COV..... CHC CHC CHC CHC
WEATHER TYPE.... RW RW RW RW
TSTM COV........ SCH SCH SCH
CWR.............0 0 10 10 10 10 10 10 40 40 40 40
TEMP............56 55 57 60 66 70 73 75 76 76 76 74
RH..............88 91 88 79 69 59 53 48 45 44 44 46
20 FT WIND DIR..W W W SW SW SW SW S S S S S
20 FT WIND SPD..4 4 4 4 5 6 6 7 8 8 9 9
20 FT WIND GUST.6 6 6 8 10 12 13 14 14 16 17 17
MIX HGT (KFT)...0.4 0.4 0.4 1.4 2.4 3.4 4.5 5.5 6.6 6.4 6.2 5.9
MIXNG WIND DIR..W W W W W W W SW SW S S S
MIXNG WIND SPD..2 2 2 5 8 10 12 12 12 14 16 17
LVORI...........7 7 6 4 3 1 1 1 1 1 1 1
ADI.............1 2 2 9 24 44 58 70 39 46 53 57
VRATE MPH-FT/1K.1 1 1 7 19 36 50 62 76 87 98 103
FORECASTER...BUNKER
REQUESTED BY...JOSEPH JARRELLS
TYPE OF REQUEST...PRESCRIBED
.TAG 2608855.0/RNK
.DELDT 04/02/26
.FORMATTERVERSION 2.0.0
.EMAIL JOSEPH.JARRELLS@USDA.GOV
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