210
FNUS71 KRNK 201318
FWSRNK
SPOT FORECAST FOR LITTLE CREEK...USFS
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA
818 AM EST WED NOV 20 2024
FORECAST IS BASED ON FORECAST START TIME OF 0900 EST ON NOVEMBER 20.
IF CONDITIONS BECOME UNREPRESENTATIVE, CONTACT THE NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE.
DISCUSSION
A STRONG COLD FRONT ARRIVES THIS EVENING, RESULTING IN BELOW NORMAL
TEMPERATURES FROM THURSDAY TO SATURDAY. PERSISTENT UPSLOPE SNOW
SHOWERS ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS OF SOUTHWEST VIRGINIA TAPERING TO
FLURRIES TOWARDS THE BLUE RIDGE. GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS AND COLD WIND
CHILLS ARE ALSO EXPECTED THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK. WIND
GUSTS MAY REACH UP TO 45 MPH ALONG THE RIDGES.
REST OF TODAY
SKY/WEATHER.........PARTLY SUNNY (55-65 PERCENT). CHANCE OF
RAIN SHOWERS IN THE AFTERNOON.
CWR (0.01 IN).......10 PERCENT INCREASING TO 30 PERCENT
IN THE AFTERNOON.
MAX TEMPERATURE.....AROUND 65.
MIN HUMIDITY........73 PERCENT.
WIND (20 FT)........LIGHT WINDS BECOMING SOUTHWEST 5 TO 10 MPH WITH
GUSTS TO AROUND 18 MPH LATE IN THE MORNING,
THEN SHIFTING TO THE WEST 8 TO 12 MPH WITH
GUSTS TO AROUND 22 MPH LATE IN THE AFTERNOON.
MIXING HEIGHT.......2500 FT AGL.
MIXING WINDS........SOUTHWEST 6 TO 13 MPH INCREASING TO WEST AROUND
30 MPH.
SMOKE DISPERSAL.....POOR (2500 KNOT-FT) EARLY IN THE MORNING
INCREASING TO GOOD (50100 KNOT-FT) IN THE
AFTERNOON.
LVORI...............6.
ADI.................6 EARLY IN THE MORNING INCREASING TO 51 IN THE
AFTERNOON.
HAINES INDEX........3 OR VERY LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME
DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH.
TIME (EST) 9AM 10A 11A 12P 1PM 2PM 3PM 4PM 5PM
SKY (%).........61 64 66 63 63 58 49 53 68
WEATHER COV..... SCH SCH SCH CHC CHC SCH
WEATHER TYPE.... RW RW RW RW RW RW
TSTM COV........
CWR.............10 10 10 20 20 20 30 30 20
TEMP............56 58 61 63 64 64 62 59 54
RH..............97 95 88 83 80 76 75 74 73
20 FT WIND DIR..SW SW SW SW W W W W W
20 FT WIND SPD..4 4 5 6 7 8 10 11 12
20 FT WIND GUST.6 7 8 10 13 16 18 20 23
MIX HGT (KFT)...0.5 0.9 1.1 1.3 1.6 2.1 2.1 2.5 1.6
MIXNG WIND DIR..SW SW SW SW SW SW W W W
MIXNG WIND SPD..6 7 7 8 9 13 17 23 30
LVORI...........8 6 5 4 4 3 3 3 3
ADI.............6 9 10 11 16 26 35 50 51
HAINES INDEX....3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3
VRATE MPH-FT/1K.3 6 8 10 15 27 37 58 47
TONIGHT
SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY CLOUDY (60-70 PERCENT) THEN BECOMING
MOSTLY CLEAR (10-20 PERCENT).
CWR (0.01 IN).......10 PERCENT.
MIN TEMPERATURE.....AROUND 32.
MAX HUMIDITY........81 PERCENT.
WIND (20 FT)........NORTHWEST WINDS 10 TO 15 MPH WITH GUSTS TO
AROUND 28 MPH.
MIXING HEIGHT.......400 FT AGL.
MIXING WINDS........NORTHWEST 31 TO 38 MPH BECOMING WEST 8 TO 10
MPH.
SMOKE DISPERSAL.....EXCELLENT (69400 KNOT-FT) EARLY IN THE EVENING
DECREASING TO POOR (4000 KNOT-FT) LATE IN THE
NIGHT.
LVORI...............4.
ADI.................51 EARLY IN THE EVENING DECREASING TO 7 LATE IN
THE NIGHT.
HAINES INDEX........3 TO 4 OR VERY LOW TO LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE
PLUME DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH.
TIME (EST) 6PM 7PM 8PM 9PM 10P 11P MID 1AM 2AM 3AM 4AM 5AM
SKY (%).........75 55 22 15 15 5 5 5 10 15 20 25
WEATHER COV.....
WEATHER TYPE....
TSTM COV........
CWR.............10 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
TEMP............46 42 40 37 36 35 35 35 34 34 33 32
RH..............81 79 77 79 78 77 74 70 71 71 71 74
20 FT WIND DIR..NW NW NW NW NW NW NW NW W W W W
20 FT WIND SPD..15 15 14 13 13 12 12 12 12 11 11 11
20 FT WIND GUST.25 26 28 28 26 25 25 23 24 23 23 23
MIX HGT (KFT)...2.1 2.1 0.8 0.5 0.4 0.5 0.6 0.5 0.6 0.6 0.5 0.6
MIXNG WIND DIR..NW NW NW NW NW NW NW W W W W W
MIXNG WIND SPD..36 38 31 22 13 10 10 10 10 9 9 8
LVORI...........3 3 3 3 4 4 3 3 3 3 3 3
ADI.............48 51 28 19 11 9 9 9 9 8 8 7
HAINES INDEX....3 3 4 4 4 4 4 4 3 3 3 3
VRATE MPH-FT/1K.77 80 26 11 6 5 6 5 6 6 5 5
THURSDAY
SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY SUNNY (40-50 PERCENT) THEN BECOMING
MOSTLY CLOUDY (65-75 PERCENT). CHANCE OF
RAIN SHOWERS.
CWR (0.01 IN).......10 PERCENT IN THE MORNING INCREASING TO 40
PERCENT IN THE AFTERNOON DECREASING TO 30 PERCENT.
MAX TEMPERATURE.....AROUND 38.
MIN HUMIDITY........65 PERCENT.
WIND (20 FT)........WEST WINDS 10 TO 15 MPH WITH GUSTS TO AROUND 25
MPH.
MIXING HEIGHT.......4100 FT AGL.
MIXING WINDS........WEST 7 TO 16 MPH INCREASING TO 24 TO 32 MPH IN
THE LATE MORNING AND AFTERNOON.
SMOKE DISPERSAL.....POOR (5400 KNOT-FT) EARLY IN THE MORNING
INCREASING TO EXCELLENT (73700 KNOT-FT) IN THE
AFTERNOON INCREASING TO GOOD (57000 KNOT-FT)
EARLY IN THE MORNING INCREASING TO EXCELLENT
(113600 KNOT-FT) IN THE AFTERNOON IN THE LATE
MORNING AND AFTERNOON.
LVORI...............2.
ADI.................9 EARLY IN THE MORNING INCREASING TO 90 IN THE
AFTERNOON.
HAINES INDEX........3 OR VERY LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME
DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH.
TIME (EST) 6AM 7AM 8AM 9AM 10A 11A 12P 1PM 2PM 3PM 4PM 5PM
SKY (%).........26 30 44 51 59 74 74 78 77 72 68 65
WEATHER COV..... SCH CHC CHC CHC CHC CHC CHC CHC
WEATHER TYPE.... RW RW RW RW RW RW SW SW
TSTM COV........
CWR.............0 0 10 10 20 30 30 40 40 40 40 30
TEMP............32 32 32 33 35 36 36 36 35 35 33 31
RH..............73 73 75 71 67 65 65 65 66 67 70 74
20 FT WIND DIR..W W W W W W W W W W W W
20 FT WIND SPD..12 11 12 13 13 13 13 13 13 13 13 13
20 FT WIND GUST.22 20 22 24 24 25 25 24 24 24 24 23
MIX HGT (KFT)...0.8 1.8 2.6 3.5 4.0 4.0 4.1 4.0 3.7 3.5 3.3 2.7
MIXNG WIND DIR..W W W W W W W W W W W W
MIXNG WIND SPD..7 9 16 24 31 32 31 29 26 25 24 24
LVORI...........3 3 3 3 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 3
ADI.............9 17 36 63 86 90 87 80 72 65 60 55
HAINES INDEX....3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3
VRATE MPH-FT/1K.6 17 42 85 124 131 127 115 100 88 79 66
FORECASTER...STONEFIELD
REQUESTED BY...JOSHUA ORR
TYPE OF REQUEST...WILDFIRE
.TAG 2426952.1/RNK
.DELDT 11/20/24
.FORMATTERVERSION 2.0.0
.EMAIL RILEE.NILSSON@USDA.GOV,JOSHUA.ORR@USDA.GOV
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.
Main Text Page