545
FNUS71 KRNK 132115
FWSRNK
SPOT FORECAST FOR CRAWFISH RX...USFS
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA
515 PM EDT FRI MAR 13 2026
FORECAST IS BASED ON IGNITION TIME OF 1800 EDT ON MARCH 13.
IF CONDITIONS BECOME UNREPRESENTATIVE, CONTACT THE NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE.
DISCUSSION
..WETTING RAIN AND SNOW OCCURRED THIS PAST THURSDAY
..A PERIOD OF DRYING IS EXPECTED THROUGH SATURDAY
WARM TEMPERATURES ALONG WITH SUNNY SKIES AND GUSTY WEST WINDS
CONTINUE TO PREVAIL THIS AFTERNOON. WINDS DIMINISH SOME TONIGHT
BUT REMAIN GUSTY TO ABOUT 20 MPH. MINIMUM RH VALUES WILL IMPROVE
TONIGHT COMPARED TO WHAT IT IS NOW. OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE MID TO
UPPER 30S WILL ALSO RESET FIRE POTENTIAL OVERNIGHT. SATURDAY LOOKS
RELATIVELY WARM AGAIN, BUT WITH LIGHTER WINDS. RH VALUES TOMORROW
WILL BOTTOM OUT BETWEEN 29 TO 40% IN THE AREA OF THE FIRE.
OTHERWISE, THE CLOCK HAS BEEN RESET ON FINE DEAD FUELS DUE TO
WIDESPREAD WETTING THIS PAST THURSDAY. THIS MOISTURE RECOVERY IS
EXPECTED TO BE TEMPORARY WITH WIND AND LOW HUMIDITY RESULTING IN
GOOD DRYING CONDITIONS THROUGH SATURDAY. AS SUCH, EXPECT UPWARD
TREND WITH RESPECT TO FIRE DANGER AS FUELS DRY GOING INTO THE
WEEKEND.
MOISTURE RETURNS LATE SUNDAY INTO MONDAY AS A STRONG STORM
SYSTEM CROSSES THE REGION.
TONIGHT
SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY CLEAR (5-15 PERCENT).
CWR (0.01 IN).......0 PERCENT.
MIN TEMPERATURE.....AROUND 36.
MAX HUMIDITY........67 PERCENT.
WIND (20 FT)........WEST WINDS 6 TO 13 MPH WITH GUSTS TO AROUND 26
MPH SHIFTING TO THE NORTHWEST AROUND 6 MPH WITH
GUSTS TO AROUND 17 MPH EARLY IN THE MORNING.
MIXING HEIGHT.......1600 FT AGL.
MIXING WINDS........SOUTHWEST 21 TO 29 MPH BECOMING WEST 9 TO 14
MPH EARLY IN THE EVENING.
SMOKE DISPERSAL.....EXCELLENT (83100 KNOT-FT) EARLY IN THE EVENING
DECREASING TO POOR (12400 KNOT-FT) LATE IN THE
NIGHT.
LVORI...............2.
ADI.................72 EARLY IN THE EVENING DECREASING TO 4 LATE IN
THE NIGHT.
TIME (EDT) 6PM 7PM 8PM 9PM 10P 11P MID 1AM 2AM 3AM 4AM 5AM
SKY (%).........13 8 5 2 3 7 3 3 4 7 8 7
WEATHER COV.....
WEATHER TYPE....
TSTM COV........
CWR.............0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
TEMP............54 52 50 48 46 46 45 44 43 43 42 40
RH..............37 41 45 52 56 60 61 63 63 65 66 66
20 FT WIND DIR..W W W W W W W W W W W NW
20 FT WIND SPD..13 12 10 10 9 8 8 8 8 7 6 6
20 FT WIND GUST.26 24 23 23 22 21 21 20 19 18 18 17
MIX HGT (KFT)...3.4 1.7 1.6 2.6 2.6 2.9 2.5 2.6 2.5 2.3 1.9 1.6
MIXNG WIND DIR..SW W W W W W W W W W W W
MIXNG WIND SPD..29 21 14 12 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 9
LVORI...........1 2 2 2 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3
ADI.............72 23 15 15 7 7 7 7 7 7 7 4
VRATE MPH-FT/1K.96 34 22 29 27 30 25 26 26 23 19 14
SATURDAY
SKY/WEATHER.........SUNNY (15-25 PERCENT).
CWR (0.01 IN).......0 PERCENT.
MAX TEMPERATURE.....AROUND 60.
MIN HUMIDITY........33 PERCENT.
WIND (20 FT)........NORTHWEST WINDS AROUND 5 MPH EARLY IN THE
MORNING BECOMING LIGHT.
MIXING HEIGHT.......3500 FT AGL.
MIXING WINDS........WEST 5 TO 9 MPH INCREASING TO 15 TO 21 MPH IN
THE LATE MORNING AND EARLY AFTERNOON, THEN
DECREASING TO 6 TO 10 MPH LATE IN THE
AFTERNOON.
SMOKE DISPERSAL.....POOR (4100 KNOT-FT) EARLY IN THE MORNING
INCREASING TO GOOD (43700 KNOT-FT) IN THE
AFTERNOON.
LVORI...............2.
ADI.................3 EARLY IN THE MORNING INCREASING TO 63 IN THE
AFTERNOON.
TIME (EDT) 6 AM 8 AM 10 AM NOON 2 PM 4 PM
SKY (%).........3 10 30 38 41 25
WEATHER COV.....
WEATHER TYPE....NONE NONE NONE NONE NONE NONE
TSTM COV........
CWR.............0 0 0 0 0 0
TEMP............39 36 43 51 56 59
RH..............67 67 51 39 33 33
20 FT WIND......NW 5 W 3 W 2 W 3 W 2 W 2
20 FT WIND GUST.14 11 10 11 10 8
MIX HGT (FT)....1300 1000 1900 2600 3200 3500
MIXING WIND......W 7 W 5 W 16 W 20 W 10 W 7
LVORI...........3 3 1 1 1 2
ADI.............3 6 40 63 40 28
VRATE MPH-FT/1K.9 5 31 50 33 23
SATURDAY NIGHT
SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY CLEAR (20-30 PERCENT).
CWR (0.01 IN).......0 PERCENT.
MIN TEMPERATURE.....AROUND 42.
MAX HUMIDITY........78 PERCENT.
WIND (20 FT)........LIGHT WINDS BECOMING SOUTHEAST AROUND 5 MPH
AFTER 3 AM.
MIXING HEIGHT.......700 FT AGL.
MIXING WINDS........SOUTH AROUND 5 MPH SHIFTING TO THE SOUTHEAST
EARLY IN THE EVENING.
SMOKE DISPERSAL.....POOR (2900 KNOT-FT).
LVORI...............3.
ADI.................2 TO 16.
TIME (EDT) 6 PM 8 PM 10 PM MIDNGT 2 AM 4 AM
SKY (%).........18 13 14 14 13 28
WEATHER COV.....
WEATHER TYPE....NONE NONE NONE NONE NONE NONE
TSTM COV........
CWR.............0 0 0 0 0 0
TEMP............59 54 49 47 46 45
RH..............38 48 62 64 67 70
20 FT WIND......SW 2 SE 2 SE 2 SE 3 SE 4 SE 5
20 FT WIND GUST.7 7 10 12 13 14
MIX HGT (FT)....2700 700 1100 1200 1500 1100
MIXING WIND......SW 5 SE 5 SE 8 SE 9 SE 9 SE 10
LVORI...........2 2 3 3 3 3
ADI.............16 2 3 4 4 4
VRATE MPH-FT/1K.13 3 8 12 14 11
FORECASTER...HANES
REQUESTED BY...AFMO
TYPE OF REQUEST...PRESCRIBED
.TAG 2605643.1/RNK
.DELDT 03/13/26
.FORMATTERVERSION 2.0.0
.EMAIL TODD.CAUDILL@USDA.GOV,JONATHAN.CATRON@USDA.GOV
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