252
FNUS71 KRNK 312216
FWSRNK
SPOT FORECAST FOR BIG NEAL...USFS
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA
616 PM EDT TUE MAR 31 2026
FORECAST IS BASED ON IGNITION TIME OF 1900 EDT ON MARCH 31.
IF CONDITIONS BECOME UNREPRESENTATIVE, CONTACT THE NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE.
DISCUSSION
EXPECT A WEAK SURFACE INVERSION TONIGHT, BUT STILL MIXING WILL BE
POOR OVERALL. LOOK FOR LOWER CLOUDS TO BUILD IN TOWARD DAWN. WEDNESDAY
HUMIDITY INCREASES ALONG WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS/FEW STORMS WITH GUSTY
WINDS. MIXING HEIGHTS MAY BE LIMITED BY THE CUMULUS CLOUDS BUT IF
ENOUGH SUNSHINE BREAKS OUT MIXING WILL BE GOOD.
THURSDAY MAY HAVE LESS COVERAGE OF SHOWERS BUT STILL RH WILL BE
ELEVATED.
TONIGHT
SKY/WEATHER.........PARTLY CLOUDY (25-35 PERCENT) THEN BECOMING
MOSTLY CLOUDY (50-60 PERCENT).
CWR (0.01 IN).......10 PERCENT.
MIN TEMPERATURE.....AROUND 57.
MAX HUMIDITY........86 PERCENT.
WIND (20 FT)........SOUTHWEST WINDS 5 TO 6 MPH. GUSTS UP TO 20 MPH
EARLY IN THE EVENING.
MIXING HEIGHT.......800 FT AGL.
MIXING WINDS........SOUTHWEST 8 TO 14 MPH.
SMOKE DISPERSAL.....FAIR (20900 KNOT-FT) EARLY IN THE EVENING
DECREASING TO POOR (6200 KNOT-FT) LATE IN THE
NIGHT.
LVORI...............3.
ADI.................4 TO 7.
TIME (EDT) 7PM 8PM 9PM 10P 11P MID 1AM 2AM 3AM 4AM 5AM
SKY (%).........38 34 29 25 15 39 48 51 51 57 51
WEATHER COV.....
WEATHER TYPE....
TSTM COV........
CWR.............10 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
TEMP............70 66 64 63 61 60 59 58 58 58 58
RH..............50 57 61 64 68 71 74 77 78 80 81
20 FT WIND DIR..SW SW SW SW SW SW SW SW SW SW W
20 FT WIND SPD..6 5 5 5 5 5 5 5 5 5 5
20 FT WIND GUST.16 14 14 14 14 14 14 14 13 13 13
MIX HGT (KFT)...1.7 1.0 0.9 0.9 0.8 0.8 0.8 0.8 0.8 0.8 0.8
MIXNG WIND DIR..SW SW SW SW SW SW SW SW SW W W
MIXNG WIND SPD..14 9 8 9 10 10 9 9 9 9 9
LVORI...........2 3 3 3 3 3 3 4 4 4 4
ADI.............6 4 4 4 5 7 6 6 6 6 6
VRATE MPH-FT/1K.24 9 8 8 9 9 8 8 8 8 7
WEDNESDAY
SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY SUNNY (45-55 PERCENT) THEN BECOMING
PARTLY SUNNY (65-75 PERCENT). RAIN SHOWERS
LIKELY AND CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS IN THE
AFTERNOON.
CWR (0.01 IN).......10 PERCENT INCREASING TO 60 PERCENT
LATE IN THE AFTERNOON.
MAX TEMPERATURE.....AROUND 76.
MIN HUMIDITY........50 PERCENT.
WIND (20 FT)........WEST WINDS AROUND 5 TO 6 MPH
WITH GUSTS TO AROUND 16 MPH IN THE LATE MORNING
AND AFTERNOON. GUSTY AND ERRATIC WINDS EXPECTED
NEAR THUNDERSTORMS LATE IN THE AFTERNOON.
MIXING HEIGHT.......4900 FT AGL.
MIXING WINDS........SOUTHWEST 6 TO 13 MPH INCREASING TO WEST 18 TO
24 MPH IN THE LATE MORNING AND AFTERNOON.
SMOKE DISPERSAL.....POOR (4700 KNOT-FT) EARLY IN THE MORNING
INCREASING TO EXCELLENT (85500 KNOT-FT) IN THE
AFTERNOON.
LVORI...............3.
ADI.................5 EARLY IN THE MORNING INCREASING TO 117 IN THE
AFTERNOON.
TIME (EDT) 6 AM 8 AM 10 AM NOON 2 PM 4 PM
SKY (%).........48 53 40 49 57 71
WEATHER COV..... S CHC CHANCE LIKELY
WEATHER TYPE....NONE NONE NONE RNSHWR RNSHWR RNSHWR
TSTM COV........ CHANCE CHANCE
CWR.............10 10 10 20 40 60
TEMP............58 58 65 73 75 76
RH..............82 85 72 57 50 50
20 FT WIND......W 5 W 4 W 5 W 6 W 6 W 6
20 FT WIND GUST.13 12 14 16 14 14
MIX HGT (FT)....800 800 2900 4100 4900 4300
MIXING WIND......W 8 SW 7 W 20 W 24 W 18 W 20
LVORI...........5 5 3 1 1 1
ADI.............5 8 69 117 56 56
VRATE MPH-FT/1K.6 6 56 98 91 85
WEDNESDAY NIGHT
SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY CLOUDY (55-65 PERCENT) THEN BECOMING
PARTLY CLOUDY (30-40 PERCENT). CHANCE OF
THUNDERSTORMS EARLY IN THE EVENING. CHANCE OF
RAIN SHOWERS IN THE EVENING AND OVERNIGHT.
CWR (0.01 IN).......50 PERCENT EARLY IN THE EVENING, THEN DECREASING TO
DECREASING TO 0 PERCENT OVERNIGHT.
MIN TEMPERATURE.....AROUND 55.
MAX HUMIDITY........96 PERCENT.
WIND (20 FT)........SOUTHWEST WINDS AROUND 5 MPH EARLY IN THE
EVENING BECOMING LIGHT. GUSTY AND ERRATIC WINDS
EXPECTED NEAR THUNDERSTORMS EARLY IN THE
EVENING. GUSTY AND ERRATIC WINDS EXPECTED NEAR
THUNDERSTORMS EARLY IN THE EVENING.
MIXING HEIGHT.......500 FT AGL.
MIXING WINDS........SOUTHWEST 9 TO 15 MPH SHIFTING TO THE WEST 2 TO
5 MPH EARLY IN THE EVENING, THEN SHIFTING TO
THE NORTH 0 TO 2 MPH IN THE LATE EVENING AND
OVERNIGHT.
SMOKE DISPERSAL.....GOOD (36700 KNOT-FT) EARLY IN THE EVENING
DECREASING TO POOR (0 KNOT-FT) LATE IN THE
NIGHT.
LVORI...............4.
ADI.................46 EARLY IN THE EVENING DECREASING TO 0 LATE IN
THE NIGHT.
TIME (EDT) 6 PM 9 PM MIDNGT 3 AM
SKY (%).........63 53 53 36
WEATHER COV.....CHANCE CHANCE CHANCE
WEATHER TYPE....RNSHWR RNSHWR RNSHWR NONE
TSTM COV........CHANCE S CHC
CWR.............40 30 30 0
TEMP............73 64 60 57
RH..............54 74 84 89
20 FT WIND......SW 5G11 SW 3G8 SW 2G6 S 1G5
MIX HGT (FT)....2800 700 600 500
MIXING WIND......SW 15 W 2 N 0 NW 2
LVORI...........1 4 6 7
ADI.............46 1 0 1
VRATE MPH-FT/1K.42 1 0 1
FORECASTER...PERRY
REQUESTED BY...JOE JARRELLS
TYPE OF REQUEST...PRESCRIBED
.TAG 2608743.0/RNK
.DELDT 03/31/26
.FORMATTERVERSION 2.0.0
.EMAIL JOSEPH.JARRELLS@USDA.GOV
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.
Main Text Page