628
FNUS71 KRNK 010846
FWSRNK
SPOT FORECAST FOR BIG NEAL...USFS
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA
446 AM EDT WED APR 1 2026
FORECAST IS BASED ON IGNITION TIME OF 0700 EDT ON APRIL 01.
IF CONDITIONS BECOME UNREPRESENTATIVE, CONTACT THE NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE.
DISCUSSION
DRY START TO THE DAY WITH MORNING SUNSHINE GIVING WAY TO
INCREASING AFTERNOON CLOUDS. A FRONT TO OUR NORTH WILL BE
THE FOCUS FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON WITH
GREATEST COVERAGE DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON (1500-1800).
STORMS WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING STRONG GUSTY WINDS AND HAIL.
AFTER TODAY, WARM, LATE SPRING-LIKE WEATHER IS EXPECTED FOR THE
REMAINDER OF THE WEEK WITH ABOVE SEASONAL TEMPERATURES. THERE IS A
DAILY THREAT FOR AN AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORM THROUGH SATURDAY.
A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE AREA SUNDAY, BRINGING RAIN,
FOLLOWED BY COOLER TEMPERATURES AND MAINLY DRY WEATHER FOR NEXT WEEK.
REST OF TODAY
SKY/WEATHER.........INCREASING CLOUDS (40-75 PERCENT). RAIN SHOWERS AND
CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS IN THE AFTERNOON.
CWR (0.01 IN).......10 PERCENT THIS MORNING, INCREASING TO 60 PERCENT
AFTER 1400, AND 80 PERCENT AROUND 1600 BEFORE
DECREASING IN THE EVENING.
MAX TEMPERATURE.....AROUND 75.
MIN HUMIDITY........50 PERCENT.
WIND (20 FT)........SOUTHWEST WINDS 4 TO 8 MPH. GUSTY AND ERRATIC
WINDS EXPECTED NEAR THUNDERSTORMS IN THE AFTERNOON.
MIXING HEIGHT.......5100 FT AGL.
MIXING WINDS........WEST 6 TO 12 MPH INCREASING TO 14 TO 22 MPH IN
THE LATE MORNING AND AFTERNOON.
SMOKE DISPERSAL.....POOR (4600 KNOT-FT) EARLY IN THE MORNING
INCREASING TO EXCELLENT (77000 KNOT-FT) IN THE
AFTERNOON.
LVORI...............3.
ADI.................7 EARLY IN THE MORNING INCREASING TO 59 IN THE
AFTERNOON.
TIME (EDT) 7AM 8AM 9AM 10A 11A 12P 1PM 2PM 3PM 4PM 5PM
SKY (%).........30 34 42 50 58 59 64 76 80 84 71
WEATHER COV..... SCH CHC LKY LKY DEF LKY
WEATHER TYPE.... RW RW RW RW RW RW
TSTM COV........ SCH CHC CHC CHC CHC CHC
CWR.............0 10 10 10 10 20 30 60 70 80 60
TEMP............57 58 60 65 69 72 74 74 75 74 74
RH..............82 84 79 71 63 57 55 52 52 51 52
20 FT WIND DIR..W W W W W W SW SW SW SW W
20 FT WIND SPD..5 5 5 5 6 6 6 6 6 6 6
20 FT WIND GUST.13 13 14 14 14 14 14 14 14 14 13
MIX HGT (KFT)...0.9 1.0 1.7 2.8 3.8 4.3 4.7 5.1 4.7 4.4 3.6
MIXNG WIND DIR..W W W W W W W W SW SW W
MIXNG WIND SPD..6 7 12 17 22 21 17 14 14 14 14
LVORI...........4 4 3 3 1 1 1 1 1 1 1
ADI.............7 9 25 41 59 59 51 43 41 41 37
VRATE MPH-FT/1K.5 7 20 50 84 89 81 72 67 63 50
TONIGHT
SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY CLOUDY (75-85 PERCENT) THEN BECOMING
PARTLY CLOUDY (45-55 PERCENT) AFTER MIDNIGHT.
CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IN THE
EVENING.
CWR (0.01 IN).......50 PERCENT DECREASING TO 10 PERCENT.
MIN TEMPERATURE.....AROUND 56.
MAX HUMIDITY........95 PERCENT.
WIND (20 FT)........VARIABLE WINDS AROUND 5 MPH EARLY IN THE
EVENING BECOMING LIGHT.
MIXING HEIGHT.......500 FT AGL.
MIXING WINDS........SOUTHWEST 5 TO 13 MPH DECREASING TO 2 TO 3 MPH
AFTER 3 AM.
SMOKE DISPERSAL.....FAIR (26600 KNOT-FT) EARLY IN THE EVENING
DECREASING TO POOR (1100 KNOT-FT) LATE IN THE
NIGHT.
LVORI...............5.
ADI.................1 TO 35.
TIME (EDT) 6 PM 8 PM 10 PM MIDNGT 2 AM 4 AM
SKY (%).........85 76 63 51 73 50
WEATHER COV.....CHANCE CHANCE CHANCE
WEATHER TYPE....RNSHWR RNSHWR RNSHWR NONE NONE NONE
TSTM COV........CHANCE CHANCE CHANCE
CWR.............50 40 30 10 10 10
TEMP............72 66 62 60 58 56
RH..............56 70 76 84 92 95
20 FT WIND......NW 5 SW 3 SW 2 SW 2 S 2 W 1
20 FT WIND GUST.12 10 8 6 5 5
MIX HGT (FT)....2500 700 800 600 600 500
MIXING WIND.....SW 12 S 8 SW 12 SW 10 SW 5 SW 2
LVORI...........2 3 4 5 6 7
ADI.............35 4 5 5 2 1
VRATE MPH-FT/1K.31 6 10 7 3 1
THURSDAY
SKY/WEATHER.........PARTLY SUNNY (50-60 PERCENT). SLIGHT CHANCE OF
RAIN SHOWERS EARLY IN THE MORNING. CHANCE OF
RAIN SHOWERS AND SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS
LATE IN THE AFTERNOON.
CWR (0.01 IN).......10 PERCENT INCREASING TO 50 PERCENT.
MAX TEMPERATURE.....AROUND 78.
MIN HUMIDITY........48 PERCENT.
WIND (20 FT)........LIGHT WINDS BECOMING SOUTH 4 TO 8 MPH WITH
GUSTS TO AROUND 16 MPH IN THE AFTERNOON. GUSTY
AND ERRATIC WINDS EXPECTED NEAR THUNDERSTORMS
LATE IN THE AFTERNOON.
MIXING HEIGHT.......5100 FT AGL.
MIXING WINDS........WEST 5 TO 10 MPH SHIFTING TO THE SOUTHWEST 13
TO 17 MPH IN THE AFTERNOON.
SMOKE DISPERSAL.....POOR (300 KNOT-FT) EARLY IN THE MORNING
INCREASING TO EXCELLENT (67700 KNOT-FT) IN THE
AFTERNOON.
LVORI...............5.
ADI.................1 EARLY IN THE MORNING INCREASING TO 71 IN THE
AFTERNOON.
TIME (EDT) 6 AM 9 AM NOON 3 PM
SKY (%).........42 44 43 64
WEATHER COV..... S CHC S CHC CHANCE
WEATHER TYPE....NONE RNSHWR RNSHWR RNSHWR
TSTM COV........ S CHC
CWR.............10 20 20 50
TEMP............56 58 74 78
RH..............93 90 58 48
20 FT WIND......SW 1G4 S 2G6 S 4G11 S 6G14
MIX HGT (FT)....500 1100 3300 4800
MIXING WIND.....W 1 W 3 SW 13 SW 16
LVORI...........8 6 1 1
ADI.............1 5 51 49
VRATE MPH-FT/1K.1 4 42 77
FORECASTER...MANUEL
REQUESTED BY...JOE JARRELLS
TYPE OF REQUEST...PRESCRIBED
.TAG 2608743.1/RNK
.DELDT 04/01/26
.FORMATTERVERSION 2.0.0
.EMAIL JOSEPH.JARRELLS@USDA.GOV
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