067
FXUS61 KLWX 140801
AFDLWX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC
401 AM EDT THU MAY 14 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES ISSUED FOR TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY. PATCHY
FOG THIS MORNING WILL LIKELY PERSIST UNTIL WINDS PICK UP CLOSER
TO SUNRISE. SOME SHOWERS MAY LINGER NEAR THE CHESAPEAKE BAY
PAST SUNRISE. ADDED A MENTION OF SPRINKLES THIS AFTERNOON FOR
NORTHERN AREAS.
KEY MESSAGES
1) BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED THROUGH FRIDAY.
2) ABOVE AVERAGE TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED BEGINNING THIS
WEEKEND ALONG WITH DAILY SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES THROUGH
THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1...BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED THROUGH
FRIDAY.
A CLOSED UPPER LOW IS LOCATED NORTH OF LAKE ONTARIO THIS MORNING
WHILE A NOTABLE VORT MAX IS SWINGING INTO THE UPPER OHIO VALLEY.
IT APPEARS THE SURFACE COLD FRONT HAS PUSHED THROUGH ALL BUT
SOUTHERN MARYLAND. HOWEVER, THE LACK OF IMMEDIATE PRESSURE RISES
(THUS WIND) AND DRY ADVECTION IS RESULTING IN PATCHY FOG WHERE
THERE ARE CLOUD BREAKS. LOCALLY DENSE FOG IS POSSIBLE, BUT
SHOULD BE RELATIVELY BRIEF. TOWARD SUNRISE, NORTHWEST WINDS
SHOULD START INCREASING WHICH WILL HELP CLEAR OUT THE FOG. A FEW
SHOWERS ARE ALSO TRAILING THE FRONT. AS THE VORT MAX APPROACHES
THIS MORNING, SOME GUIDANCE INDICATES ADDITIONAL SHOWERS MAY
FORM ALONG/EAST OF I-95 THROUGH MID MORNING.
THE CLOSED LOW WILL DRIFT SOUTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE NORTHERN MID
ATLANTIC TODAY, CAUSING SURFACE LOW PRESSURE TO REDEVELOP NEAR
NEW ENGLAND. THE PRIMARY EFFECTS WILL BE BROKEN TO OVERCAST
STRATOCUMULUS AND MUCH COOLER TEMPERATURES (LOWER ELEVATIONS
RANGING FROM THE UPPER 50S TO MID 60S). UPSLOPE RAIN SHOWERS
WILL CONTINUE IN THE NORTHWEST FLOW THROUGH THE DAY. SOME WET
SNOW IS EVEN POSSIBLE THROUGH MIDDAY ABOVE 4000 FEET AS 850 MB
TEMPERATURES DROP NEAR OR JUST BELOW 0C. WHILE MEASURABLE RAIN
IS UNLIKELY EAST OF THE ALLEGHENIES, DID ADD A MENTION OF
SCATTERED SPRINKLES TO NORTHERN AREAS AS THERE MAY BE ENOUGH
SHALLOW INSTABILITY TO PRODUCE RAIN DROPS. THIS SHOWS UP IN CAM
REFLECTIVITY FORECASTS AS WELL. NORTHWEST WINDS WILL ALSO GUST
20 TO 30 MPH THROUGH THE DAY. LOW TEMPERATURES WILL DROP BACK
INTO THE 40S TO NEAR 50 TONIGHT, WITH 30S POSSIBLE IN THE HIGHER
ELEVATIONS. THERE SHOULD BE ENOUGH LINGERING WIND TO PRECLUDE
FROST CONCERNS, BUT IT COULD BE CLOSE IN SOME OF THE ELEVATED
SHELTERED VALLEYS.
THE UPPER LOW WILL PUSH OFFSHORE ON FRIDAY, WHICH WILL LEAD TO
WARMER TEMPERATURES. EVEN SO, READINGS WILL LIKELY FALL A FEW
DEGREES SHORT OF NORMAL. WHILE THERE SHOULD BE MORE BREAKS OF
SUN COMPARED TO THURSDAY, MID AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS MAY INCREASE
IN THE AFTERNOON. NORTHWESTERLY WINDS WILL STILL BE A BIT
GUSTY, BUT SHOULD START DIMINISHING DURING THE AFTERNOON AS
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS SOUTH OF THE AREA.
KEY MESSAGE 2...ABOVE AVERAGE TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED BEGINNING THIS
WEEKEND ALONG WITH DAILY SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES THROUGH
THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.
THE SURFACE HIGH WILL PROGRESS OFFSHORE OVER THE WEEKEND. THE
COMBINATION OF RETURN FLOW AND RISING HEIGHTS WILL LEAD TO
TEMPERATURES RISING ABOVE NORMAL, WITH SOME LOCATIONS
POTENTIALLY NEARING 90 BY SUNDAY. THE ONE CAVEAT IS THE UPPER
LEVEL PATTERN WILL STILL BE RELATIVELY ZONAL, AND A COLD FRONT
WILL ATTEMPT TO DROP SOUTH FROM THE GREAT LAKES. EMBEDDED
SHORTWAVE TROUGHS IN THIS FLOW COULD HELP INITIATE SOME DIURNAL
CONVECTION EACH DAY. THE GREATEST CHANCES WILL BE ALONG THE
ALLEGHENY MOUNTAINS AND PERHAPS ALONG THE MD/PA BORDER. COVERAGE
DOES APPEAR LIMITED, HOWEVER. THE SAGGING FRONT WILL LIKELY
QUICKLY RETURN NORTH AS UPPER LEVEL RIDGING STARTS BUILDING
SUNDAY NIGHT.
UPPER LEVEL RIDGING AND RETURN FLOW FROM THE SOUTH WILL CAUSE
TEMPERATURES TO CONTINUE TO WARM INTO THE START OF NEXT WEEK, WITH
HIGHS POTENTIALLY INTO THE 90S MONDAY AND TUESDAY. WHILE
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO PERSIST OFFSHORE,
INCREASING DIURNAL INSTABILITY COULD LEAD TO DAILY CONVECTION
DEVELOPING OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN.
OFF TO THE WEST, A DEEP UPPER LEVEL TROUGH BEGINS TO DEVELOP OVER
THE NORTHERN PLAINS, WITH A COLD FRONT THAT WILL SLOWLY BEGIN TO
APPROACH THE REGION BETWEEN TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY. THIS WILL BRING
MORE WIDESPREAD CHANCES FOR RAIN AND THUNDERSTORMS, ALTHOUGH
TEMPERATURES MAY NOT BEGIN TO SEE A SIGNIFICANT DECREASE UNTIL AFTER
IT TRANSITIONS OFFSHORE SOMETIME MID-TO-LATE NEXT WEEK.
AVIATION /07Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/
PATCHES OF FOG AND LOW CLOUDS EXIST IN THE WAKE OF EVENING RAIN
AND MAKE FOR A CHALLENGING FORECAST FOR THE NEXT FEW HOURS.
THERE ARE ALSO SOME RESIDUAL SHOWERS, BUT IT'S UNLIKELY THEY
LOWER VISIBILITY THAT MUCH. NORTHWEST WINDS SHOULD START
INCREASING TOWARD SUNRISE, WHICH SHOULD SCOUR OUT ANY FOG AND
LOW CLOUDS. EXPECT A QUICK INCREASE IN GUSTS, WITH 20 TO 25 KT
COMMON THROUGHOUT THE DAY. A FEW MORE SHOWERS COULD FORM NEAR
DCA/BWI/MTN THROUGH MID MORNING, BUT THEY WOULD BE LIGHT IN
NATURE. STRATOCUMULUS CEILINGS WILL LIKELY FILL IN THROUGH THE
DAY, ALTHOUGH THEY SHOULD REMAIN VFR. A STRAY SHOWER OR SPRINKLE
CAN'T BE RULED OUT THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. WINDS SHOULD DECREASE
A BIT WITH SUNSET, ALTHOUGH SOME OCCASIONAL GUSTS WILL LIKELY
PERSIST THROUGH THE NIGHT (EXCEPT CHO). CEILINGS SHOULD SCATTER
OUT AS WELL, BUT IT'S A BIT UNCERTAIN HOW QUICKLY THAT OCCURS.
GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS CONTINUE FRIDAY, PERHAPS A BIT LIGHTER
THAN THURSDAY, AND THEY WILL DIMINISH IN THE AFTERNOON AS HIGH
PRESSURE APPROACHES. STRATOCUMULUS CEILINGS ARE LESS LIKELY, BUT
MID AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS WILL LIKELY INCREASE.
VFR CONDITIONS ARE LIKELY SATURDAY WITH LIGHT S/SW WINDS. A
SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM COULD APPROACH MRB DURING THE EVENING.
PRIMARILY VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED AT TERMINALS ON SUNDAY AND
MONDAY. AN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM COULD AFFECT THE NORTHERN
TERMINALS IN THE SUNDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING TIMEFRAME THAT COULD
CAUSE TEMPORARY REDUCED CONDITIONS AT TERMINALS. WINDS BRIEFLY
SHIFT WESTERLY BY SUNDAY AFTERNOON BEFORE SHIFTING SSE ON
MONDAY.
MARINE
A COLD FRONT IS PUSHING THROUGH THE WATERS EARLY THIS MORNING,
BRINGING NORTHWEST WINDS. THOSE WINDS ARE RELATIVELY LIGHT AT
THE MOMENT BUT SHOULD INCREASE FAIRLY RAPIDLY AFTER SUNRISE.
EXPECT 20 TO 25 KT GUSTS THROUGH THE DAY, WITH A SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY GOING INTO EFFECT FOR ALL WATERS AT 6 AM. THE ADVISORY
CONTINUES TONIGHT AND FRIDAY, ALTHOUGH SOME OF THE INTERIOR
WATERS COULD HAVE LIGHTER WINDS FOR A TIME TONIGHT. WINDS MAY BE
SLIGHTLY LIGHTER FRIDAY COMPARED TO THURSDAY. THE ADVISORY ENDS
AT 3 PM, ALTHOUGH THERE IS SOME UNCERTAINTY WITH HOW QUICKLY
WINDS DECREASE. LIGHT WINDS ARE EXPECTED BY FRIDAY EVENING AS
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS SOUTH OF THE AREA.
SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST WINDS DEVELOP SATURDAY. GUSTS COULD
OCCASIONALLY APPROACH ADVISORY CRITERIA, BUT APPEAR TO STAY
MOSTLY BELOW AT THIS TIME.
WINDS STAY BELOW SCA CRITERIA SUNDAY AND MONDAY. SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS
GRADUALLY FLOW SOUTHEAST BY MONDAY NIGHT.
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING
ANOMALIES HAVE PEAKED, WITH LOCATIONS IN ACTION STAGE EARLY THIS
MORNING. INCREASING NORTHWEST FLOW WILL BRING LOWER WATER LEVELS
TODAY.
LWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
DC...NONE.
MD...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 3 PM EDT FRIDAY FOR MDZ008.
VA...NONE.
WV...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 3 PM EDT FRIDAY FOR ANZ530>543.
DISCUSSION...ADS/SRT
AVIATION...ADS/SRT
MARINE...ADS/SRT
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