884
FXUS61 KLWX 131335
AFDLWX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC
935 AM EDT FRI MAR 13 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
NO MAJOR CHANGES WERE MADE TO THE FORECAST. CONFIDENCE IN A
SEVERE THREAT FOR MONDAY CONTINUES TO INCREASE WITH AN ELEVATED
THREAT FOR SEVERE WEATHER. ADDITIONALLY, SPC HAS PORTIONS OF
THE DC METRO AREA TOWARDS ANNAPOLIS AND SOUTHWARD IN A 30% RISK
FOR SEVERE WEATHER WITH DAMAGING WIND GUSTS AND TORNADOES
POSSIBLE AS A LINEAR SYSTEM TRACKS ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA IN
THE AFTERNOON.
KEY MESSAGES
- 1) INCREASINGLY GUSTY WINDS EXPECTED LATE THIS MORNING THROUGH
EARLY SATURDAY.
- 2) ANOTHER STRONG COLD FRONT WILL ARRIVE MONDAY, BRINGING
STRONG WINDS AND THE POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1...INCREASINGLY GUSTY WINDS EXPECTED LATE THIS
MORNING THROUGH EARLY SATURDAY.
AFTER AN ACTIVE LAST 36 HOURS WHICH FEATURED SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS, ACCUMULATING MID-MARCH SNOWS, AND RAPID
TEMPERATURE FALLS, THE STORY TODAY WILL BE THE GUSTY
SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS.
INITIALLY, SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL COVER THE MID-ATLANTIC
REGION. AT THE SAME TIME, AN OCCLUDED FRONTAL SYSTEM CURRENTLY
OVER THE MIDWEST WILL HELP USHER A WARM FRONT TOWARD THE AREA
TODAY. AS THIS TROUGH ADVANCES EASTWARD, ANOTHER ROBUST WIND
FIELD OVERSPREADS THE LOCAL AREA. THE 00Z NAM INDICATES 925-850
MB WINDS WILL BE IN THE 35 TO 50 KNOT RANGE. WHILE SOUTHWESTERLY
WINDS ARE NOT TYPICALLY CONDUCIVE TO INTENSE VERTICAL MIXING,
FORECAST SOUNDINGS DO SHOW AMPLE OPPORTUNITY FOR DOWNWARD
MOMENTUM TRANSFER, PARTICULARLY DURING PEAK HEATING.
THE INHERITED WIND ADVISORIES HAVE BEEN EXPANDED EASTWARD TO THE
BLUE RIDGE MOUNTAINS. FURTHER, IN COLLABORATION WITH NEIGHBORING
FORECAST OFFICES, HAVE UPGRADED TO HIGH WIND WARNINGS ACROSS
WESTERN PORTIONS OF GRANT, PENDLETON, AND HIGHLAND COUNTIES.
OPTED TO MAINTAIN THE 11 AM START TIME FOR ALL HAZARDOUS WIND
PRODUCTS AS NOCTURNAL INVERSIONS MIGHT BE SLOW TO MIX OUT. ONCE
THE STABLE LAYER ERODES, AMPLE CONVECTIVE MIXING IS LIKELY AS
THE MENTIONED TROUGH APPROACHES FROM THE WEST. FURTHER EAST,
BREEZY WINDS ARE EXPECTED BUT SHOULD STAY BELOW ADVISORY
THRESHOLDS (46 MPH).
A DRY COLD FRONT CROSSES THE AREA TONIGHT WHICH BRINGS AN UPTICK
IN WEST-NORTHWESTERLY WINDS INTO THE FIRST HALF OF SATURDAY. A
NUMBER OF THE GLOBAL AND HIGH-RESOLUTION MODELS KEEP THE
STRONGEST WINDS NORTH OF THE MASON-DIXON LINE. OTHERWISE, THE
PATTERN THROUGH SATURDAY REMAINS DRY WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES IN
THE 50S (MAINLY 40S ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS). ANY CHANCES FOR
PRECIPITATION HOLD OFF UNTIL LATE IN THE WEEKEND IN RESPONSE TO
THE NEXT SYSTEM (SEE KEY MESSAGE 2).
KEY MESSAGE 2...ANOTHER STRONG COLD FRONT WILL ARRIVE MONDAY,
BRINGING STRONG WINDS AND THE POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS.
THE STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS PORTIONS OF THE DC METRO AREAS
TOWARDS ANNAPOLIS AND ALONG I-66 SOUTHWARD IN A 30% RISK FOR
SEVERE WEATHER ON MONDAY. A LINEAR SYSTEM LOOKS TO TRACK ACROSS
THE FORECAST AREA IN THE AFTERNOON WITH SIGNIFICANT DAMAGING
WIND GUSTS AND TORNADOES POSSIBLE. WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR THIS
THREAT WITH THE PREVIOUS DISCUSSION BELOW.
A STRONG COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH A POWERFUL LOW PRESSURE
ACROSS THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES WILL CROSS THE AREA MONDAY.
BETTER MOISTURE RECOVERY IS EXPECTED AHEAD OF THIS FRONT
COMPARED TO THE ONE TONIGHT WHICH WILL RESULT IN NUMEROUS
SHOWERS AND SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS. GIVEN FAVORABLE WIND SPEEDS
ALOFT AND MODEST INSTABILITY FOR MID- MARCH, THERE IS A
NOTEWORTHY THREAT FOR SEVERE WEATHER. THE STORM MODE LOOKS
MOSTLY LINEAR THIS TIME WITH A QLCS OF SORTS FAVORED IN NEARLY
ALL EXTENDED GUIDANCE. WHILE THE KINEMATICS LOOK A LOT STRONGER
WITH THIS NEXT SYSTEM, THERE IS STILL A HIGH DEGREE OF
UNCERTAINTY WITH THE THERMODYNAMIC ENVIRONMENT AND THE EXACT
TIMING OF THE FRONTAL PASSAGE WITH RECENT TRENDS SHOWING AN
EARLIER FRONTAL PASSAGE PRIOR TO PEAK DIURNAL HEATING. SPC HAS A
15% CONTOUR ON DAY 4, WHICH IS NOT SUPER COMMON IN THE MID-
ATLANTIC. NUMEROUS AI AND ML GUIDANCE CONTINUE TO PAINT A
MODERATE TO HIGH END CEILING FOR DAMAGING WINDS WITH THIS
FRONTAL PASSAGE ON MONDAY AS WELL. REGARDLESS OF SEVERE WEATHER,
STRONG WINDS WILL ACCOMPANY THIS FRONT BOTH IN THE PRE-FRONTAL
AND POST-FRONTAL ENVIRONMENT.
AFTERWARDS, LONGWAVE TROUGH PATTERN WILL ESTABLISH ACROSS THE EAST
WITH STRONG SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE SETTLING IN KEEPING A MUCH
COLDER THAN NORMAL PATTERN FOR THE MIDDLE TO SECOND HALF OF
NEXT WEEK.
AVIATION /13Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/
VFR CONDITIONS ARE LIKELY THE NEXT FEW DAYS GIVEN A DRY WEATHER
PATTERN AHEAD. INITIALLY, HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE IN CHARGE BEFORE
A STRENGTHENING WIND FIELD OVERSPREADS THE REGION. A GUSTY
SOUTHWESTERLY WIND IS EXPECTED TO AFFECT ALL TERMINALS LATE THIS
MORNING THROUGH THE EVENING. FORECAST GUSTS WILL BE IN THE 30 TO
40 KNOT RANGE BEFORE WINDS SHIFT TO WESTERLY OVERNIGHT. AS
SURFACE WINDS DECREASE BY TONIGHT, THIS WILL FAVOR A MARKED
INCREASE IN LOW-LEVEL WIND SHEAR (GENERALLY SATURDAY 02-10Z).
HAVE INCLUDED LLWS TO ALL TAF SITES (260 DEGREES/40 TO 50
KNOTS). ANY ISSUES RELATED TO SHEAR SHOULD DIMINISH BY DAYBREAK
SATURDAY.
WESTERLY WINDS CONTINUE THROUGH SATURDAY WITH GUSTS AROUND 20 TO
PERHAPS 25 KNOTS. HIGH PRESSURE GRADUALLY BUILDS OVER NEW
ENGLAND WHILE TONIGHT'S FRONTAL SYSTEM SETTLES ACROSS THE
SOUTHEASTERN U.S. THIS WILL FAVOR A SHIFT TO SOUTHEASTERLY
WINDS ON SUNDAY WHICH COMES WITH GUSTS TO AROUND 20 TO 25 KNOTS.
INCREASING RAIN SHOWER CHANCES ALSO SUPPORTS PERIODS OF SUB-VFR
CONDITIONS SUNDAY EVENING INTO THE NIGHT.
STRONG COLD FRONT FORECAST TO CROSS THE AREA MONDAY WITH SHOWERS AND
POSSIBLE THUNDERSTORMS. WINDS SHIFT FROM SOUTHERLY TO WEST-NORTHWESTERLY
BEHIND THE FRONT WITH POTENTIAL GUSTS OF 30 TO 40 KNOTS. TIGHT
GRADIENTS PERSIST INTO TUESDAY WITH WESTERLY GUSTS TO AROUND 20
TO 30 KNOTS.
MARINE
WITH HIGH PRESSURE STRETCHING NORTHWARD TO THE MID-ATLANTIC
STATES, WINDS HAVE SIGNIFICANTLY DROPPED OFF EARLY THIS MORNING.
HOWEVER, THIS BREAK WILL BE SHORT LIVED AS A STRONG UPPER TROUGH
APPROACHES FROM THE WEST. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES GO INTO EFFECT
ACROSS ALL WATERS AT 10 AM THIS MORNING AND CONTINUE UNTIL 4 AM
SATURDAY. WHILE SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS ARE NOT TYPICALLY CONDUCIVE
TO STRENGTHENING GUSTS, BUFKIT SOUNDINGS DOWN SHOW SOME OF THE
30 TO 35 KNOT WINDS MIXING DOWN TO THE SURFACE, PARTICULARLY
AROUND 17-22Z. THE OTHER LIMITING FACTOR IS THE AIR TEMPERATURE
WILL BE MILDER THAN THE WATER SURFACE. THIS WOULD SUPPORT STABLE
TEMPERATURE INVERSIONS. FOR NOW WILL MAINTAIN SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORIES, BUT AN UPGRADE TO GALE WARNINGS IN THAT 17-22Z
WINDOW IS POSSIBLE.
ADVISORY CALIBER WINDS ARE POSSIBLE ON SATURDAY MORNING,
ESPECIALLY OVER THE NORTHERN CHESAPEAKE BAY. GRADIENTS WEAKEN
FOR THE SECOND HALF OF SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY MORNING. HOWEVER,
ANOTHER RAMP UP IS LIKELY AS WINDS TURN SOUTHEASTERLY. SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORIES MAY BE NEEDED FROM SUNDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING
THROUGH THE NIGHT.
SCA CONDITIONS AHEAD OF COLD FRONT MONDAY. GALE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE
BEHIND THE FRONT. SEVERE CONVECTION MAY ALSO BE AN ISSUE WHICH
MAY YIELD SPECIAL MARINE WARNINGS FOR SOME STORMS.
FIRE WEATHER
TODAY AND SATURDAY LOOK SLIGHTLY CONCERNING IN REGARDS TO FIRE
WEATHER, ALTHOUGH FUEL MOISTURE WILL BE A LIMITING FACTOR.
EXCEPT FOR SOME ISOLATED AREAS IN THE SHENANDOAH VALLEY AND
POTOMAC HIGHLANDS, MOST OF THE AREA WILL HAVE RECEIVED A QUARTER
TO HALF INCH OF PRECIPITATION OVER THE PAST COUPLE OF DAYS. THIS
WETTING RAIN SHOULD HELP QUELL A MORE WIDESPREAD ISSUE.
WITH THAT SAID, A DRY FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL BE APPROACHING THE
REGION TODAY BEFORE MOVING THROUGH TONIGHT. AHEAD OF THAT, VERY
STRONG SOUTH TO SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS PICK UP. THE AIR MASS WILL
BE EXTREMELY DRY, AND COULD BE LOCALLY ENHANCED IN DOWNSLOPE
FLOW WEST OF THE BLUE RIDGE. CURRENT FORECAST HAS MID TO UPPER
20S RHS IN THE TYPICAL DRIER VALLEYS.
SATURDAY MAY ACTUALLY BE THE DRIEST DAY, BEHIND THE FRONTAL PASSAGE
FROM TONIGHT. RH VALUES COULD DROP INTO THE UPPER TEENS TO 20S
ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA. WINDS WILL BE ON THE DECLINE, BUT WILL
REMAIN SOMEWHAT ELEVATED, ESPECIALLY ALONG/NORTH OF THE
INTERSTATE 66 CORRIDOR, WHERE 15-25 MPH WIND GUSTS CAN BE
EXPECTED.
GUSTY WINDS BUT INCREASING RHS ARE FORECAST SUNDAY AHEAD OF
ANOTHER FRONT, WHICH LOOKS TO BRING WETTING RAINS SUNDAY
EVENING/NIGHT. THERE IS LESS OF A THREAT SUNDAY, BUT ANY ONGOING
FIRES COULD FEEL THE IMPACTS OF SOME GUSTY SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW
(20-30 MPH GUSTS). SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS LOOK LIKELY ON
MONDAY BEFORE STRONG WEST-NORTHWESTERLY WINDS OVERSPREAD THE
AREA MONDAY EVENING INTO TUESDAY.
LWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
DC...NONE.
MD...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 AM EDT SATURDAY FOR MDZ008.
WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 2 AM EDT SATURDAY FOR MDZ501-509-510.
WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR MDZ502.
VA...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR VAZ025>031-504.
HIGH WIND WARNING UNTIL 2 AM EDT SATURDAY FOR VAZ503.
WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 11 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR VAZ507-508.
WV...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 2 AM EDT SATURDAY FOR WVZ503.
WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR WVZ050>053-055-
502-504-506.
HIGH WIND WARNING UNTIL 2 AM EDT SATURDAY FOR WVZ501-505.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 AM EDT SATURDAY FOR ANZ530>543.
DISCUSSION...AVS/BRO/CPB
AVIATION...BRO/CPB
MARINE...BRO/CPB
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