934
FXUS61 KLWX 200131
AFDLWX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC
931 PM EDT SUN OCT 19 2025
SYNOPSIS
A POTENT COLD FRONT APPROACHES THE FORECAST AREA THIS AFTERNOON
BEFORE MOVING THROUGH TONIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE BRIEFLY BUILDS
OVERHEAD MONDAY AHEAD OF ANOTHER COLD FRONT FORECAST TO MOVE
THROUGH TUESDAY.
NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM MONDAY MORNING/
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AXIS IS TAKING A NEGATIVE TILT ACROSS THE
OHIO VALLEY. HOWEVER, MAIN CONVECTIVE LINE IS IN A PREFRONTAL
TROUGH WHERE SHEAR IS MORE PARALLEL TO THE BOUNDARY. THUS SEEING
SOME OCCASIONAL ENHANCEMENTS OF NORTHEASTWARD MOVING ELEMENTS,
BUT THE EASTWARD MOVING LINE HAS BEEN LOOKING MORE RAGGED ON
RADAR, AND RECENT WIND GUSTS HAVE GENERALLY BEEN 30 MPH OR LESS.
IT APPEARS AS THOUGH A NEW CONVERGENCE ZONE IS DEVELOPING AHEAD
OF THE OLD ONE, SO THERE IS STILL SOME POTENTIAL THE LINE
REINVIGORATES AS IT ENCOUNTERS GREATER MOISTURE CONTENT ALONG
THE I-95 CORRIDOR. INSTABILITY IS NEGLIGIBLE, SO ANY THREAT OF
DAMAGING GUSTS OR EVEN A BRIEF QLCS-TYPE TORNADO WOULD HAVE TO
BE HEAVILY RELIANT ON THE STRONG LOW LEVEL WIND FIELDS. A
MARGINAL RISK FROM SPC REMAINS IN PLACES. RADAR EXTRAPOLATION
SUGGESTS THE CONVECTIVE THREAT WILL BE EAST OF THE FORECAST AREA
BY MIDNIGHT OR SHORTLY THEREAFTER. HOWEVER, SOME SHOWERS WILL
LINGER BEHIND THE MAIN LINE. IN PARTICULAR, RAIN SHOULD CONTINUE
ALONG THE ALLEGHENY FRONT UNTIL DAYBREAK, WITH WIDESPREAD
SHOWERS APPROACHING FROM THE OHIO VALLEY AHEAD OF THE TROUGH
AXIS/COLD FRONT.
ADDITIONALLY, A WIND ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR WESTERN
GRANT, WESTERN PENDLETON, AND WESTERN HIGHLAND COUNTIES
THROUGH 8 AM MONDAY. DECENT AGREEMENT IN GUIDANCE AND
CORRESPONDING PROBABILITIES TO JUSTIFY AN ADVISORY. H85 WINDS
ALSO IN THE 50-60 KT RANGE OVERNIGHT TONIGHT, WITH THE STRONGEST
WINDS LIKELY IN THE IMMEDIATE WAKE OF THE FRONT.
OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL BE IN THE 30S AND 40S FOR THOSE WEST OF THE
BLUE RIDGE AND 40S AND 50S FOR THOSE EAST OF THE BLUE RIDGE.
SHORT TERM /6 AM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/
PRECIPITATION CHANCES LINGER MONDAY MORNING AS THE COLD FRONT
DEPARTS OFFSHORE. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN OVERHEAD FROM
THE SOUTH WITH DECREASING CLOUDS AND DRY CONDITIONS EXPECTED
MONDAY AFTERNOON. GUSTY WINDS CONTINUE MONDAY MORNING WITH
NORTHWEST WINDS GUSTING 20 TO 30 KNOTS (30+ ALLEGHENIES). WINDS
BEGIN DIMINISHING SLIGHTLY THROUGHOUT THE DAY WITH LIGHT WINDS
EXPECTED OVERNIGHT INTO TUESDAY. IN THE WAKE OF THE COLD FRONT,
TEMPERATURES WILL BE 10-15 DEGREES COOLER COMPARED TO THE DAY
PRIOR. HIGHS WILL BE IN THE 50S AND 60S WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS IN
THE 30S AND 40S.
ANOTHER COLD FRONT APPROACHES AND MOVES THROUGH THE FORECAST
AREA ON TUESDAY. LITTLE TO NO PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED WITH
THIS FRONTAL PASSAGE DUE TO LIMITED MOISTURE ALOFT. THAT BEING
SAID, THERE IS A CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION IN THE NORTHERN HALF OF
THE FORECAST AREA TUESDAY NIGHT BEHIND THE FRONT. SOUTHERLY
FLOW ON TUESDAY WILL YIELD TEMPERATURES IN THE 60S AND 70S WITH
HIGHER ELEVATIONS IN THE 50S. OVERNIGHT LOW TEMPERATURES WILL
BE IN THE 40S AND 50S FOR MOST.
LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/
FOLLOWING A STRONG FRONTAL PASSAGE LATE TUE NIGHT/EARLY WED, BROAD
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH ANCHORED ON A CLOSED LOW NORTH OF THE GREAT LKS
WILL ESTABLISH ACROSS THE NORTHEAST AND MID-ATLANTIC STATES THROUGH
THE END OF THE WEEK. BRISK W TO NW FLOW WILL REMAIN OVER THE AREA
ASSOCIATED WITH LOW PRESSURE NORTH OF THE GREAT LKS WITH MOUNTAIN
RAIN SHOWERS. BY THE END OF THE WEEK, UPPER TROUGH BEGINS TO LIFT
OUT WHILE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS CLOSER TO THE AREA RESULTING IN
LIGHTER WINDS. IN GENERAL, EXPECT GENERALLY COOLER THAN NORMAL
TEMPERATURES ALONG WITH BRISK CONDITIONS AND MOUNTAIN RAIN SHOWERS.
AVIATION /01Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/
CONVECTIVE LINE IS PUSHING EAST THROUGH THE METRO TERMINALS THIS
EVENING. EVEN THOUGH THE LINE HAD BECOME MORE RAGGED BY 9 PM,
STILL SEEING SOME BRIEF MODERATE TO HEAVY RAIN WITH IFR VSBY.
SOME POTENTIAL THE LINE RESTRENGTHENS TOWARD DCA/BWI, BUT THE 35
KT GUSTS IN THE 00Z TAFS MAY STILL BE A BIT OVERDONE. WIND
SHIFT TO THE WEST MAY BE BRIEF, WITH A CONTINUATION OF
SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS UNTIL THE PRIMARY FRONT ARRIVES TOWARD
DAYBREAK. SOME LIGHT SHOWERS MAY LINGER FOR A FEW HOURS BEHIND
THE MAIN LINE, BUT DON'T APPEAR TO REDUCE VSBY SUBSTANTIALLY.
ANOTHER ROUND OF SHOWERS COULD SKIRT MRB LATE TONIGHT AHEAD OF
THE FRONT, BUT CONFIDENCE IS LOW THIS WOULD CAUSE MUCH OF AN
ISSUE.
THE WIND SHIFT TO THE WEST WILL BE ACCOMPANIED BY A QUICK
INCREASE IN SPEEDS AFTER SUNRISE, WITH SOME GUSTS IN THE 30 KT
RANGE POSSIBLE. CLOUD COVER DECREASES THROUGHOUT THE DAY, ALONG
WITH WIND GUSTS OF 20-25 KT MORE COMMON BY THE AFTERNOON. WINDS
BECOME LIGHT OVERNIGHT MONDAY INTO TUESDAY. VFR CONDITIONS
CONTINUE TUESDAY WITH DRY CONDITIONS EXPECTED. WINDS SHIFT TO
SOUTHERLY, GUSTING 15 TO 20 KNOTS IN THE AFTERNOON.
BRISK W WEST WINDS GUSTING 25-30 KT DURING THE DAY WED, DIMINISHING
SOMEWHAT THU. BROKEN CEILINGS AROUND 040-050 DURING THE DAY WITH
LIGHTER WINDS AT NIGHT.
MARINE
SOUTHERLY WINDS GUSTING 20-30 KT CONTINUE THIS EVENING. A
CONVECTIVE LINE OF SHOWERS IS APPROACHING. IT HAS BECOME A BIT
WEAKER, BUT STILL CAN'T RULE OUT SOME 35+ KT GUSTS IN ANY
SEGMENTS THAT RESTRENGTHEN. THIS LINE WILL HAVE A WIND SHIFT TO
THE WEST, BUT THEN WINDS MAY BE SOMEWHAT SOUTHWESTERLY UNTIL THE
PRIMARY COLD FRONT ARRIVES LATE TONIGHT. A SURGE BEHIND THE
FRONT COULD RESULT IN A FEW GUSTS APPROACHING GALE FORCE FOR A
FEW HOURS AROUND SUNRISE TO MID MORNING. OTHERWISE ADVISORY
CONDITIONS IN WESTERLY FLOW CONTINUE THROUGH THE DAY. WINDS
SHOULD SUBSIDE WITH SUNSET MONDAY EVENING.
ANOTHER COLD FRONT APPROACHES TUESDAY WITH WINDS SHIFTING TO
SOUTHERLY IN THE MORNING. ADDITIONAL SCAS WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED
ON TUESDAY.
SCA CONDITIONS EXPECTED WEDNESDAY WITH LIGHTER WINDS THU, WHICH MAY
STILL BE AT SCA LEVELS.
FIRE WEATHER
DESPITE GUSTY WINDS AND MUCH DRIER AIR MASS ARRIVING DURING THE
MIDDLE AND SECOND HALF OF THE WEEK, MUCH COOLER TEMPERATURES AND
CLOUD COVER DURING THE DAY SHOULD PREVENT CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER
CONDITIONS.
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING
ANOMALIES OF 1.5 TO 2.0 FT ARE BEING CURRENTLY OBSERVED IN SOUTHERLY
WINDS. THE HIGH TIDE TONIGHT WILL BE SIGNIFICANTLY LOWER.
HOWEVER, WATER LEVELS TONIGHT MAY NOT BE ABLE TO RECEDE LOW
ENOUGH TO PREVENT ANOTHER CYCLE OF COASTAL FLOODING. AN
EXTENSION MAY BE REQUIRED FOR HAVRE DE GRACE, BUT OTHER
ADVISORIES LOOK TO BE IN GOOD SHAPE OR MAY BE ABLE TO BE
CANCELLED EARLY. WATER LEVELS SHOULD DROP BELOW MINOR COASTAL
FLOODING DURING THE DAY MONDAY AS GUSTY W FLOW DEVELOPS.
LWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
DC...COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY UNTIL 10 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR DCZ001.
MD...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EDT MONDAY FOR MDZ008.
COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT EDT TONIGHT FOR MDZ011.
COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM EDT MONDAY FOR MDZ014.
COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY UNTIL 4 AM EDT MONDAY FOR MDZ016.
COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY UNTIL 3 AM EDT MONDAY FOR MDZ017.
COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY UNTIL 5 AM EDT MONDAY FOR MDZ018-508.
VA...COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY UNTIL 10 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR VAZ054.
COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY UNTIL 4 AM EDT MONDAY FOR VAZ057.
WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM EDT MONDAY FOR VAZ503.
WV...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM EDT MONDAY FOR WVZ501-505.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EDT MONDAY FOR ANZ530>543.
SYNOPSIS...CPB
NEAR TERM...ADS/CPB
SHORT TERM...AVS/CPB
LONG TERM...LFR
AVIATION...ADS/LFR/CPB
MARINE...ADS/LFR/CPB
FIRE WEATHER...LFR
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...LFR/ADS
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