490
FXUS61 KLWX 200059
AFDLWX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC
859 PM EDT TUE MAY 19 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
EARLIER SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS HAVE LARGELY DIMINISHED.
KEY MESSAGES
- RECORD HEAT CONTINUES THROUGH WEDNESDAY. A STRONG COLD FRONT BRINGS
WIDESPREAD STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CHANCES WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
- CONDITIONS REMAIN SHOWERY AND COOL THURSDAY INTO EARLY NEXT
WEEK, BRINGING MUCH NEEDED RAIN TO THE REGION.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1...RECORD HEAT CONTINUES THROUGH WEDNESDAY. A STRONG COLD
FRONT BRINGS WIDESPREAD STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CHANCES
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
KEY MESSAGE 1 DESCRIPTION...
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THAT IGNITED ALONG A LEESIDE TROUGH
EARLIER HAVE PRETTY MUCH DIMINISHED, THOUGH A COUPLE ROGUE POP
UP SHOWERS OR SPRINKLES REMAIN POSSIBLE FROM ANNAPOLIS MD WEST
TO FRANKLIN WV INCLUDING THE DC METRO AND NORTH-CENTRAL VA INTO
THE SHENANDOAH VALLEY UNTIL ABOUT 10 PM OR SO. OVERNIGHT LOW
TEMPERATURES WILL BE RATHER WARM IN THE 60S AND 70S.
A LEE-SIDE TROF WILL DEVELOP WED AFTERNOON WELL AHEAD OF A
STRONG COLD FRONT EXPECTED TO MOVE THROUGH THE AREA LATE WED
NIGHT. EXPECT NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WED AFTERNOON
INTO THE EARLY EVENING WITH A THREAT OF MAINLY DOWNBURST WINDS
GIVEN VERY HOT AND UNSTABLE AIR MASS. BELIEVE THERE WILL BE
ENOUGH COVERAGE OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR A SEVERE
THUNDERSTORM WATCH TO BE ISSUED. CONVECTION SHOULD START TO
WANE AFTER 9 PM, BUT SHOWERS COULD LINGER WELL INTO THE
OVERNIGHT AS CDFNT CROSSES THE AREA.
KEY MESSAGE 2...CONDITIONS REMAIN SHOWERY AND COOL THURSDAY INTO EARLY NEXT
WEEK, BRINGING MUCH NEEDED RAIN TO THE REGION.
KEY MESSAGE 2 DESCRIPTION...
THE SYNOPTIC SCALE PATTERN WILL REMAIN RELATIVELY STAGNANT THROUGH
THE LONG TERM PERIOD, WITH WEAK UPPER TROUGHING OFF TO OUR WEST OVER
THE OHIO VALLEY, AND SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE OFF TO OUR NORTH AND
NORTHEAST. THIS WILL LEAD TO A PATTERN WHERE MARINE INFLUENCE LOW-
LEVEL EASTERLY FLOW IS NEARLY CONTINUOUSLY OVERRUN BY SOUTH TO
SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT. THIS PERSISTENT WARM ADVECTION REGIME
ALOFT ATOP STABLE LOW-LEVEL AIR WILL LEAD TO CLOUDY SKIES WITH ON
AND OFF SHOWERS THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY. THIS WILL BRING MUCH
NEEDED, BENEFICIAL RAINS TO THE FORECAST AREA, WITH ENSEMBLE MEANS
SHOWING AROUND ONE TO TWO INCHES OF RAIN ACROSS MUCH OF THE FORECAST
AREA DURING THAT TIME.
HIGHS THURSDAY WILL TAKE A 25 TO 30 DEGREE DIVE BEHIND THE FRONT
WITH MANY LOCATIONS STRUGGLING TO PUSH 70 DEGREES. TEMPERATURES
WILL CONTINUE TO RUN BELOW NORMAL ON FRIDAY, STRUGGLING TO MAKE IT
INTO THE 60S. ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE SHOWS MUCH LARGER SPREAD IN
TEMPERATURES SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY, WITH SOME SOLUTIONS KEEPING US
LOCKED INTO LOW CLOUD COVER AND TEMPERATURES IN THE 50S/60S, WHILE
SOME OTHER SOLUTIONS TRY TO BREAK US OUT OF THE LOW CLOUDS, CAUSING
TEMPERATURES TO CLIMB INTO THE 70S.
AVIATION /00Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/
REMOVED ANY PRECIP MENTION FROM THE TAFS THROUGH WEDNESDAY
MORNING. MADE A BROAD ATTEMPT TO SLIGHTLY CONSOLIDATE THE TIMING
OF CONVECTION IN THE INHERITED PROB30S FOR WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON
AND EVENING, THOUGH THE POTENTIAL FOR MULTIPLE ROUNDS AND
TIMING INCONSISTENCIES AMONG THE LATEST GUIDANCE MAKE THAT A
DIFFICULT TASK. DETAILS SHOULD BECOME CLEARER LATER TONIGHT INTO
WEDNESDAY MORNING IN TERMS OF TIMING/PLACEMENT OF ONE OR MORE
ROUNDS OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. LOWER CIGS ARE POSSIBLE
WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY MORNING AS THE PARENT COLD FRONT
DRIFTS THROUGH, SHIFTING WINDS FROM W/SW TO NW.
PERIODIC RAIN SHOWERS MOVING THROUGH THE REGION ON THURSDAY
AFTERNOON AND EVENING BRING ADDITIONAL SUB-VFR PERIODS AT
TERMINALS. WIND GUSTS COULD REACH 15-20 KNOTS ON THURSDAY
BEFORE GRADUALLY DECREASING. SUB-VFR CONDITIONS APPEAR LIKELY ON
FRIDAY AND SATURDAY IN ASSOCIATION WITH LOW CLOUDS AND SHOWERS.
WINDS WILL GENERALLY BE OUT OF THE EAST TO SOUTHEAST ON BOTH
FRIDAY AND SATURDAY.
MARINE
WINDS SHOULD GRADUALLY TAPER OVERNIGHT, WITH GUSTINESS LINGERING
LONGEST OVER THE WIDER WATERS OFF SOUTHERN MD.
WINDS NEAR SCA LEVELS IN SOUTH TO SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ON WEDNESDAY,
AND THEN AGAIN IN NORTHERLY FLOW ON THURSDAY. SMWS APPEAR POSSIBLE
WEDNESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT AS THUNDERSTORMS MOVE OVER THE
WATERS.
EAST TO SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS MAY NEAR LOW-END SCA LEVELS LATE
THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY.
CLIMATE
HERE ARE SOME DAILY TEMPERATURE RECORDS DURING THE MAY 19-20,
2026 TIMEFRAME:
A '+' SIGN INDICATES MULTIPLE YEARS CURRENTLY HOLD THAT RECORD.
A '!' SIGN INDICATES THE RECORD IS FORECAST TO BE TIED OR BROKEN.
***TUESDAY, MAY 19TH, 2026***
LOCATION RECORD HIGH (YEAR) RECORD WARM LOW (YEAR)
WASHINGTON-NATIONAL (DCA) 96F (1997)+ 72F (2015)!
WASHINGTON-DULLES (IAD) 92F (1997)+! 66F (2017)+!
BALTIMORE (BWI) 98F (1962) 75F (1877)
BALTIMORE INNER HARBOR (DMH) 98F (1962) 78F (1962)
MARTINSBURG (MRB) 98F (1911) 69F (1996)!
CHARLOTTESVILLE (CHO) 97F (1962) 72F (1997)
ANNAPOLIS (NAK) 96F (1962) 71F (1911)!
HAGERSTOWN (HGR) 97F (1996) 69F (2017)+!
***WEDNESDAY, MAY 20TH, 2026***
LOCATION RECORD HIGH (YEAR) RECORD WARM LOW (YEAR)
WASHINGTON-NATIONAL (DCA) 96F (1996) 73F (2019)
WASHINGTON-DULLES (IAD) 93F (1996) 69F (2019)
BALTIMORE (BWI) 95F (1962) 71F (2019)+
BALTIMORE INNER HARBOR (DMH) 97F (1962) 74F (1998)+
MARTINSBURG (MRB) 97F (1911) 70F (1998)
CHARLOTTESVILLE (CHO) 96F (1996) 73F (1996)
ANNAPOLIS (NAK) 98F (1997) 76F (1898)
HAGERSTOWN (HGR) 97F (1996) 66F (1998)
LWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
DC...NONE.
MD...NONE.
VA...NONE.
WV...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 2 AM EDT WEDNESDAY FOR ANZ530>534-
537>543.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 3 PM TO 8 PM EDT WEDNESDAY FOR
ANZ534-543.
DISCUSSION...LFR/DHOF
AVIATION...LFR/DHOF
MARINE...LFR/DHOF
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