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FXUS61 KLWX 020715
AFDLWX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC
315 AM EDT SAT MAY 2 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
WINDS GUST UP TO 20 KNOTS EARLY THIS MORNING BEFORE DIMINISHING
LATER THIS MORNING AS A COLD FRONT DEPARTS THE FORECAST
AREA. ADDITIONALLY, TIDAL ANOMALIES AT ANNAPOLIS CONTINUE TO
RISE AS WATER LEVELS NEAR MINOR FLOOD STAGE. OTHERWISE, NO
MAJOR CHANGES WERE MADE TO THE FORECAST OVERNIGHT WITH A FREEZE
WATCH IN EFFECT FOR TONIGHT.
KEY MESSAGES
- 1) FREEZE WATCH IN EFFECT FOR TONIGHT WITH BELOW NORMAL
TEMPERATURES EXPECTED ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA.
- 2)SHOWERS REMAIN POSSIBLE AT TIMES NEXT WEEK AS TEMPERATURES
RISE TO NEAR OR ABOVE NORMAL.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1...FREEZE WATCH IN EFFECT FOR TONIGHT WITH BELOW
NORMAL TEMPERATURES EXPECTED ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA.
A FREEZE WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR TONIGHT WITH LOW
TEMPERATURES IN THE UPPER 20S TO LOW 30S ALONG THE ALLEGHENIES.
LOW TEMPERATURES WILL BE IN THE 30S TO MID 40S ACROSS THE
FORECAST AREA, ALTHOUGH WINDS BLOWING 5 TO 10 KNOTS WILL INHIBIT
FROST DEVELOPMENT. THAT BEING SAID, FROSTY CONDITIONS ARE
POSSIBLE WEST OF THE BLUE RIDGE WHERE LOW TEMPERATURES WILL BE
IN THE LOW 30S AND WINDS WILL BE LIGHT IN THE VALLEYS.
OVERALL, BELOW AVERAGE TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TODAY AND
TOMORROW WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE 50S TO 60S. OVERNIGHT
LOW TEMPERATURES DROP INTO THE 30S AND 40S EACH NIGHT. PRIMARILY
DRY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED EACH DAY AS A COASTAL LOW TRACKS
OFF THE COAST OF THE CAROLINAS. ANY PRECIPITATION ASSOCIATED
WITH THE AREA OF LOW PRESSURE SHOULD REMAIN SOUTHEAST OF THE
FORECAST AREA.
KEY MESSAGE 2...SHOWERS REMAIN POSSIBLE AT TIMES NEXT WEEK AS
TEMPERATURES RISE TO NEAR OR ABOVE NORMAL.
ZONAL FLOW TAKES OVER IN THE UPPER LEVELS ONCE THIS WEEKEND'S TROUGH
PASSES THROUGH. BY MONDAY, TEMPERATURES SHOULD RISE BACK INTO THE
MID-70S ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA AND CONTINUE TO INCREASE INTO THE
MIDWEEK. BY THEN, A TROUGH ORIGINATING OVER THE PLAINS WILL APPROACH
THE REGION, BRINGING WITH IT A COLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY AND RENEWED
CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS STARTING TUESDAY EVENING AND
GOING INTO WEDNESDAY. AS THIS TROUGH PASSES THROUGH, DAILY CHANCES
FOR RAIN AND THUNDERSTORMS EXIST, WITH THE STRONGEST CHANCES FOR
CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY CURRENTLY WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY, WHERE NCAR'S
MEDIUM RANGE CONVECTIVE AI FORECAST SHOWS THE AREA IN THE 5%-15%
PROBABILITY RANGE AT THIS TIME. UPPER LEVEL ZONAL FLOW AGAIN TAKES
OVER TOWARDS THE END OF NEXT WEEK ONCE THIS COLD FRONT MOVES
THROUGH.
AVIATION /06Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE ACROSS ALL TERMINALS THIS
MORNING AS A COLD FRONT DEPARTS THE AREA. WINDS SHIFT TO
NORTH/NORTHWEST BEHIND THE FRONT, BLOWING 5 TO 10 KNOTS WITH GUSTS
UP TO 15 KNOTS THIS AFTERNOON. WINDS REMAIN OUT OF THE NORTHWEST ON
SUNDAY, GUSTING 15 TO 20 KNOTS IN THE AFTERNOON. CLOUD COVER
DECREASES ON SUNDAY AND MONDAY WITH VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED BOTH
DAYS. ON MONDAY, WIND SHIFT TO SOUTHWESTERLY AS HIGH PRESSURE SHIFTS
OFFSHORE. WINDS BLOW 5 TO 10 KNOTS WITH GUSTS 15 TO 20 KNOTS.
SOUTHERLY WIND FLOW PERSISTS AS WINDS GUST UP TO 20-25 KNOTS
TUESDAY. A SLIGHT CHANCE OF RAIN SHOWERS COULD TEMPORARILY
REDUCE CIGS/VSBYS AT TERMINALS BEGINNING TUESDAY EVENING INTO
THE OVERNIGHT HOURS AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING FRONTAL ZONE.
RESTRICTIONS ARE LIKELY ON WEDNESDAY AS RAIN IMPACTS THE
TERMINALS.
MARINE
WINDS GUSTS UP TO 20 KNOTS ACROSS THE WATERS THIS MORNING IN THE
WAKE OF A COLD FRONT EXITING THE AREA. WIND DIMINISH LATER THIS
MORNING AND REMAIN BELOW SCA CRITERIA UNTIL TONIGHT WHEN A COASTAL
LOW TRACKS NEARBY. NORTHWEST WINDS GUST 20 TO 25 KNOTS ACROSS THE
WATERS TONIGHT WITH ADDITIONAL SCAS LIKELY. WINDS SHIFT TO
SOUTHERLY ON MONDAY WITH A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES LIKELY.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES REMAIN LIKELY TUESDAY AS SOUTHWEST WINDS
FLOW. SUSTAINED 20 KNOT WINDS ARE EXPECTED ON TUESDAY. SOUTH
WINDS ARE EXPECTED ON WEDNESDAY WITH SCA CRITERIA CONDITIONS
EXPECTED.
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING
SOUTHERLY GUSTS LEAD TO RISING TIDAL ANOMALIES ACROSS TIDAL
SITES THIS MORNING. AS A COLD FRONT DEPARTS, WINDS HAVE
DIMINISHED AND SHIFTED TO NORTHWESTERLY WITH ANOMALIES EXPECTED
TO FALL THROUGH THE DAY. ANNAPOLIS WILL NEAR AND POSSIBLY EXCEED
MINOR FLOOD STAGE THIS MORNING AS ANOMALIES ARE SLOW TO LOWER.
WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR THREAT FOR A COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY.
LWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
DC...NONE.
MD...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR MDZ008.
FREEZE WATCH FROM LATE TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING FOR
MDZ501-509-510.
VA...FREEZE WATCH FROM LATE TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING FOR
VAZ503-504.
WV...FREEZE WATCH FROM LATE TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING FOR
WVZ501-503-505-506.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR
ANZ530>543.
DISCUSSION...AVS/SRT
AVIATION...AVS/SRT
MARINE...AVS/SRT
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