905
FXUS61 KLWX 190732
AFDLWX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC
332 AM EDT FRI JUN 19 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES HAVE BEEN EXTENDED THROUGH DAYBREAK
TODAY. NEW ADVISORIES HAVE BEEN ISSUED FOR TONIGHT AND WILL
LIKELY NEED TO BE EXTENDED THROUGH SATURDAY. SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING DAMAGING WINDS ARE POSSIBLE
MONDAY AFTERNOON.
KEY MESSAGES
- A STRONG LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM COULD BRING THE THREAT FOR HEAVY
RAINFALL AND THUNDERSTORMS LATE SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY.
- ADDITIONAL RAIN CHANCES ARE EXPECTED BY THE MIDDLE
OF NEXT WEEK AS AN ACTIVE UPPER LEVEL PATTERN CONTINUES.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1...A STRONG LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM COULD BRING THE THREAT FOR HEAVY
RAINFALL AND THUNDERSTORMS LATE SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY.
KEY MESSAGE 1 DESCRIPTION...
SHOWERS ASSOCIATED WITH ARTHUR WILL EXIT THE AREA AFTER DAYBREAK
TODAY. WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE AREA TONIGHT
THROUGH EARLY SUNDAY.
LOW PRESSURE ACROSS NORTHERN IL SUNDAY EVENING WILL TRACK ACROSS
IN & OH SUNDAY NIGHT PUSHING A WARM FRONT THROUGH THE AREA LATE
SUNDAY NIGHT/EARLY MONDAY. SHOWERS AND STORMS ARE EXPECTED LATE
SUNDAY INTO EARLY MONDAY ACROSS THE APPALACHIAN REGION,
SPREADING EAST ACROSS THE REST OF THE AREA MONDAY. SOME SEVERE
STORMS ARE POSSIBLE MONDAY AFTERNOON IN THE HOT AND UNSTABLE AIR
MASS COUPLE WITH STRONG MID-LEVEL WINDS (I.E 40 KT AT 500 MB).
THE COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO PUSH EAST OF THE AREA MONDAY NIGHT
ENDING THE THUNDERSTORM THREAT.
KEY MESSAGE 2...ADDITIONAL RAIN CHANCES ARE EXPECTED BY THE MIDDLE
OF NEXT WEEK AS AN ACTIVE UPPER LEVEL PATTERN CONTINUES.
KEY MESSAGE 2 DESCRIPTION...
IN THE WAKE OF THE COLD FRONT TUESDAY, PLENTY OF UNCERTAINTY REMAINS
AMONGST THE GUIDANCE. SOME OF THE GUIDANCE HAS AN UPPER LEVEL LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM IMPACTING THE AREA LATE WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY
WHILE OTHER PIECES OF GUIDANCE HAVE WEAK HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE
REGION. OVERALL LOOKING AT MORE OF TYPICAL SUMMERTIME REGIME WITH
DAILY CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WEDNESDAY THROUGH THE
WEEKEND. COVERAGE HAS YET TO BE DETERMINED GIVEN THE FEATURES IN
PLAY. WITH THE TROUGH IN PLACE, EXPECT TEMPERATURES AT OR JUST ABOVE
NORMAL THROUGH THE PERIOD. ANY RAIN THAT WE DO SEE WILL BE
BENEFICIAL GIVEN CONTINUED DROUGHT CONCERNS. AS FOR HUMIDITY, EXPECT
A GRADUAL UPTICK ESPECIALLY DURING THE LATE WEEK PERIOD.
AVIATION /06Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/
SHOWERS WILL BE ENDING LATER THIS MORNING WITH NO RESTRICTIONS
EXPECTED. GUSTY NW WINDS ARE EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON AND
SATURDAY WITH GUSTS UP TO 25 KT. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
APPEAR LIKELY MONDAY, SOME OF WHICH, COULD BE SEVERE WITH
DAMAGING WINDS BEFORE A CDFNT CROSSES THE AREA MONDAY NIGHT.
MARINE
SCAS WERE EXTENDED EARLIER THROUGH THE REST OF THE NIGHT. WINDS
WILL DIMINISH THROUGH THE DAY TODAY BEFORE STRENGTHENING AGAIN
TONIGHT INTO SATURDAY. ADDITIONAL SCAS ARE LIKELY SATURDAY. WINDS
DIMINISH SAT NIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN.
WINDS STRENGTHEN AGAIN SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUE. SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE MONDAY AFTERNOON, WHICH MAY REQUIRE
SMWS.
LWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
DC...NONE.
MD...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EDT EARLY THIS MORNING FOR
MDZ008.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 5 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 6 AM EDT
SATURDAY FOR MDZ008.
VA...NONE.
WV...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EDT EARLY THIS MORNING FOR
ANZ530>534-537>543.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 5 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 6 AM EDT
SATURDAY FOR ANZ530>534-537-539>541-543.
DISCUSSION...LFR/EST
AVIATION...LFR/EST
MARINE...LFR/EST
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