922
FXUS61 KLWX 040214 AAA
AFDLWX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC
914 PM EST WED DEC 3 2025
SYNOPSIS
COLD AND DRY CONDITIONS LOOK TO CONTINUE THROUGH TONIGHT WITH HIGH
PRESSURE NEARBY. A REINFORCING COLD FRONT WILL PASS THROUGH THE AREA
THURSDAY DELIVERING A FEW MOUNTAIN SNOW SHOWERS AND BREEZY CONDITIONS.
LIGHT WINTRY PRECIPITATION CHANCES RETURN FRIDAY AS LOW PRESSURE PASSES
TO THE SOUTH. HIGH PRESSURE BRIEFLY RETURNS THIS WEEKEND BEFORE A
PAIR OF CLIPPER-LIKE SYSTEMS IMPACT THE AREA EARLY NEXT WEEK.
NEAR TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/
INCREASING HIGH CLOUDS TONIGHT. COLD WITH LOWS IN THE MID 20S
UNDER LIGHT WINDS.
PREVIOUS AFD...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH TONIGHT
RESULTING IN LIGHT TO CALM WINDS, A MAINLY CLEAR SKY (AT LEAST
TO START), AND COLD TEMPERATURES. LOWS WILL DROP INTO THE 20S
FOR MOST, WITH TEENS POSSIBLE IN THE COLDEST SPOTS AND AROUND 30
IN THE MAJOR CITY CENTERS.
MID/HIGH CLOUDS BEGIN TO INCREASE LATE TONIGHT AHEAD OF A COLD
FRONT APPROACHING FROM THE GREAT LAKES AND OHIO RIVER VALLEY.
SOME SNOW SHOWER ACTIVITY WILL APPROACH THE ALLEGHENIES LATE.
SHORT TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/
SNOW SHOWER ACTIVITY PERSISTS THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING ALONG AND
WEST OF THE ALLEGHENY FRONT. ALTHOUGH AMOUNTS WILL BE GENERALLY
LIGHT (A COATING TO AN INCH, PERHAPS TWO ON THE WEST-FACING
SLOPES ABOVE 2500 FEET IN WESTERN GARRETT COUNTY MD), THE VERY
COLD TEMPERATURES WILL ALLOW ANY SNOW THAT FALLS TO STICK TO
UNTREATED SURFACES. THIS MAY IMPACT THE MORNING COMMUTE.
OTHERWISE, A REINFORCING COLD FRONT WILL DROP SWIFTLY THROUGH
THE AREA ON THURSDAY. THIS WILL RESULT IN BLUSTERY NORTHWEST
WINDS WITH GUSTS OF 20 TO 30 MPH. INITIALLY, COLD AIR ADVECTION
MAY BE OFFSET BY DOWNSLOPING FLOW EAST OF THE APPALACHIANS.
HOWEVER, THURSDAY NIGHT LOOKS TO BE ONE OF THE COLDEST (IF NOT
THE COLDEST) NIGHT OF THE SEASON THUS FAR. WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO
BECOME MUCH LIGHTER THURSDAY NIGHT KEEPING WIND CHILL FACTORS
TO A MINIMUM.
LOW PRESSURE BEGINS TO TAKE SHAPE OVER THE NORTH-CENTRAL GULF
COAST AHEAD OF A MESSY, LOW AMPLITUDE SHORTWAVE TROUGH SHIFTING
INTO THE TENNESSEE RIVER VALLEY THURSDAY NIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE
WILL SLOWLY RETREAT. THE AIR WILL BE PLENTY COLD TO SUPPORT
SNOW, BUT ABUNDANT DRY AIR LEFT BEHIND BY THE HIGH AS WELL AS
ONLY MODEST FORCING ASSOCIATED WITH THE DISTANT LOW AND
SHORTWAVE MAY PROVE DETRIMENTAL FOR PRECIPITATION PRODUCTION
LOCALLY. UPPER JET FORCING WILL INCREASE ESPECIALLY NEAR AND
SOUTH OF I-64 THROUGH THE DAY. IT IS IN THESE AREAS THAT SOME
LIGHT SNOW IS MOST LIKELY, PERHAPS MIXED WITH A LITTLE RAIN OR
FREEZING RAIN DEPENDING ON EXACTLY HOW THE LOW TRACK AND LOW-
LEVEL TEMPERATURE PROFILES PLAY OUT. FURTHER NORTH, IT REMAINS
RATHER IFFY WHETHER OR NOT ACCUMULATING PRECIPITATION DEVELOPS.
THE ECMWF GUIDANCE REMAINS THE MOST AMPLIFIED AND FURTHEST
NORTH, WITH THE GFS GUIDANCE SUPPRESSED FURTHER SOUTH. THERE IS
A BIT BETTER AGREEMENT OVERALL, BUT CONFIDENCE REMAINS LOW.
CHECK BACK FOR UPDATES AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/LWX/WINTER.
LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
SYNOPTICALLY, NOT TOO MUCH OF A CHANGE IN THE OVERALL PATTERN WITH
BROAD TROUGHING ACROSS THE EASTERN CONUS AND RIDGING BACK TOWARD THE
WEST. THE NORTHERN JET STREAM WILL REMAIN QUITE ACTIVE WITH SEVERAL
PERTURBATIONS SET TO WORK NEAR OR THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA DURING
THE EARLY AND MIDDLE PART OF NEXT WEEK.
THE BULK OF THE WEEKEND LOOKS TO REMAIN DRY OUTSIDE OF SOME LEFTOVER
UPSLOPE MOUNTAIN SNOW SHOWERS/SOUTHERN MD SHOWERS SATURDAY AS LOW
PRESSURE DEPARTS OFFSHORE AND A WEAK PIECE OF SHORTWAVE ENERGY
PIVOTS THROUGH. AN ADDITIONAL WEAK COLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY SUNDAY MAY
TOUCH OFF SOME ADDITIONAL UPSLOPE MOUNTAIN SNOW SHOWER ACTIVITY
ALTHOUGH PROBABILITIES OF 2" OR MORE REMAIN WELL BELOW 30 PERCENT
ACROSS THE ALLEGHENIES THROUGHOUT THE WEEKEND.
UNCERTAINTY STARTS TO INCREASE IN THE FORECAST LATE SUNDAY NIGHT
INTO MONDAY AS LOW PRESSURE WORKS EAST FROM THE MID-MISSISSIPPI
RIVER VALLEY INTO THE SOUTHERN MID-ATLANTIC REGION. MEANWHILE, 1028-
1032 MB HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN WEDGED IN EAST OF THE APPALACHIANS
PROVIDING A DIRECT COLD AIR SOURCE OUT OF EASTERN CANADA. THE
STRENGTH OF THE WEDGING HIGH AND APPROACHING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
WILL DICTATE THE OVERALL COVERAGE AND INTENSITY OF ANY WINTRY
PRECIPITATION THAT MAY OCCUR. THE LOW WILL WORK ACROSS THE SOUTHERN
MID-ATALNTIC AND CENTRAL APPALACHIANS MONDAY AFTERNOON INTO MONDAY
EVENING BEFORE TURNING INTO A COASTAL LOW FEATURE OFF THE
CAROLINAS/SOUTHEAST U.S. COAST MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY. MOST
OF THE 06Z/12Z DETERMINISTIC/ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE FROM TODAY
(WEDNESDAY) SUGGESTS A SIMILAR TRACK TO THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
THAT LOOKS TO OCCUR ON FRIDAY (DECEMBER 5, 2025). MOISTURE
AVAILABILITY WILL BE KEY ALTHOUGH MOST GUIDANCE SUGGESTS A LIGHT
WINTRY PRECIP TYPE OF EVENT FAVORING AREAS MAINLY SOUTH OF
I-66/US-50. EVEN WITH THAT SAID, CONFIDENCE REMAINS VERY LOW
GIVEN THE CURRENT MODEL SPREAD. STAY TUNED AND CONTINUE TO
MONITOR WEATHER.GOV/LWX/WINTER FOR THE LATEST.
A PAIR OF CLIPPER LIKE SYSTEMS WILL TRAVERSE THE AREA TUESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY. BOTH OF THESE SYSTEMS LOOK TO SWING ACROSS THE GREAT
LAKES DRIVING A SERIES OF FRONTS THROUGH THE REGION. EACH STORM
SYSTEM COULD DELIVER A PERIOD OF LIGHT SNOW TO THE MOUNTAINS WITH
PERHAPS A RAIN/SNOW MIX FURTHER EAST. OF COURSE THIS WILL BE
DEPENDENT UPON MOISTURE AVAILABILITY AND THE OVERALL TRACK OF THE
LOW AS IT DROPS SOUTH/EAST.
HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN AT OR BELOW AVERAGE THROUGHOUT THE
PERIOD. HIGHS WILL PUSH INTO THE 30S AND 40S EACH DAY WITH MOUNTAIN
LOCATIONS REMAINING IN THE 20S. OVERNIGHT LOW TEMPERATURES WILL FALL
INTO THE TEENS AND 20S. MONDAY LOOKS TO BE THE COLDEST DAY OF THE
EXTENDED WITH EVEN COLDER AIR SET TO ARRIVE BY LATE NEXT WEEK.
AVIATION /02Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/
LIGHT AND VARIABLE TO CALM WINDS ARE POSSIBLE THIS EVENING
BEFORE A SHIFT TO WEST AND NORTHWEST WINDS 05Z-10Z BEHIND A WEAK
PRE-FRONTAL TROUGH. WINDS INCREASE FURTHER ALONG WITH MID-LEVEL
CLOUDS AS A COLD FRONT SWINGS THROUGH ON THURSDAY. GUSTS OF 20
TO 25 KNOTS SHOULD BE COMMON WITH A FEW PEAK GUSTS TO 30 KNOTS
POSSIBLE 14Z-22Z.
WINDS WILL BECOME LIGHT THURSDAY NIGHT OUT OF THE NORTH TO CALM,
THEN SOUTHERLY FRIDAY AS LOW PRESSURE GLIDES BY TO THE SOUTH AND
A WEAK FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE WEST. SOME RESTRICTIONS ARE
POSSIBLE ESPECIALLY FURTHER SOUTH (I.E. KCHO) IN WINTRY PRECIP
AS THE LOW PASSES, BUT UNCERTAINTY REMAINS IN HOW FAR NORTH
APPRECIABLE PRECIP GETS. WINDS SHIFT BACK TO LIGHT OUT OF THE
NORTHWEST FRIDAY NIGHT WITH GRADUAL CLEARING EXPECTED.
VFR CONDITIONS RETURN THIS WEEKEND INTO MUCH OF NEXT WEEK. SOME
TEMPORARY SUB-VFR REDUCTIONS ARE POSSIBLE LATE SUNDAY INTO
MONDAY, AND TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY, ESPECIALLY OVER THE
MOUNTAINS AS MULTIPLE CLIPPER SYSTEMS PASS THROUGH. WINDS WILL
REMAIN LIGHT OUT OF THE NORTH AND NORTHWEST SATURDAY WITH HIGH
PRESSURE NEARBY. LIGHT NORTHERLY WINDS WILL CONTINUE SUNDAY
INTO MONDAY WITH SPEEDS LESS THAN 10 KNOTS.
MARINE
HIGH PRESSURE MOVING ACROSS THE AREA WILL RESULT IN LIGHT AND
SOMEWHAT ERRATIC WINDS THROUGH EARLY THURSDAY MORNING (GENERALLY
SOUTH SHIFTING TO NORTHWEST AT 5 KNOTS OR LESS). A COLD FRONT
WILL CROSS THE WATERS THURSDAY RESULTING IN INCREASING WINDS AND
A MORE STEADY NORTHWEST DIRECTION. GUSTS OF 20 TO 25 KNOTS WILL
BE COMMON, WITH A FEW GUSTS AROUND 30 KNOTS POSSIBLE THROUGH
EARLY THURSDAY EVENING BEFORE WINDS DIMINISH. LOW PRESSURE WILL
PASS TO THE SOUTH FRIDAY AND A WEAK FRONT WILL CROSS FROM WEST
TO EAST. WINDS WILL BE GENERALLY LIGHT DURING THIS TIME - SOUTH
FRIDAY, THEN NORTHWEST FRIDAY NIGHT. SOME SNOW OR A WINTRY MIX
MAY MAKE IT INTO THE AREA FRIDAY AS THE LOW PASSES TO THE SOUTH,
MOST LIKELY OVER THE WATERS IN THE VICINITY OF SOUTHERN MARYLAND.
SUB SCA LEVEL NORTH TO NORTHWESTERLY WINDS ARE EXPECTED THROUGHOUT
THE WEEKEND. SCA LEVEL WINDS LOOK TO RETURN TO THE WATERS MONDAY
THROUGH WEDNESDAY AS A SERIES OF FRONTS PASS THROUGH.
LWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
DC...NONE.
MD...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 9 AM THURSDAY TO MIDNIGHT EST
THURSDAY NIGHT FOR MDZ008.
VA...NONE.
WV...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 9 AM THURSDAY TO MIDNIGHT EST
THURSDAY NIGHT FOR ANZ530>533-538>541.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM NOON THURSDAY TO MIDNIGHT EST
THURSDAY NIGHT FOR ANZ534-537-542-543.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 9 AM TO 9 PM EST THURSDAY FOR ANZ535.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM NOON TO 9 PM EST THURSDAY FOR ANZ536.
SYNOPSIS...LFR
NEAR TERM...LFR
SHORT TERM...DHOF
LONG TERM...EST
AVIATION...LFR/EST
MARINE...LFR/EST
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