313
FXUS61 KLWX 201906
AFDLWX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC
306 PM EDT FRI MAR 20 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
NO CHANGES. RAIN SHOWERS WILL SPREAD ACROSS THE REGION FROM
NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST THE REMAINDER OF THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH
TONIGHT.
KEY MESSAGES
-1) TEMPERATURES WARM THROUGH THE WEEKEND WITH A COUPLE
OPPORTUNITIES FOR RAIN SHOWERS AND PERHAPS SOME THUNDERSTORMS.
-2) BENIGN WEATHER IS LIKELY MID WEEK BEFORE A COLD FRONT
BRINGS THE NEXT CHANCE OF RAIN FRIDAY.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1...TEMPERATURES WARM THROUGH THE WEEKEND WITH A COUPLE
OPPORTUNITIES FOR RAIN SHOWERS AND PERHAPS SOME THUNDERSTORMS.
WARM THIS AFTERNOON WITH TEMPERATURES REACHING THE UPPER 60S TO
LOWER 70S. MID-LEVEL AND UPPER LEVEL CLOUDS ARE CURRENTLY
OVERSPREADING THE REGION FROM THE NORTHWEST. WITHIN AN HOUR OR
SO, RAIN SHOWERS WILL MOVE INTO OUR NORTHWESTERN ZONES AS A COLD
FRONT APPROACHES THE REGION. AROUND THE MIDDLE TO LATTER PART
OF RUSH HOUR, THIS SHOWER ACTIVITY COULD BE ACCOMPANIED BY A FEW
THUNDERSTORMS IN NORTHWESTERN VA AND CENTRAL MD. THEREAFTER,
THIS SHOWER ACTIVITY WILL ADVANCE SOUTHEAST INTO THE METRO
AREAS, SOUTHERN MD, AND VA PIEDMONT LATER THIS EVENING. THE
MAIN THREATS ARE THUNDER AND LIGHTNING, BRIEF DOWNPOURS, AND
SMALL HAIL WITH THE THUNDERSTORMS. RAIN AMOUNTS WILL AVERAGE
0.10 TO 0.25 INCHES. THE STORMS PREDICTION CENTER HAS PORTIONS
OF WESTERN MD AND NORTHEASTERN WV IN A MARGINAL RISK FOR SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS.
THE FRONT WILL PASS THROUGH WITH A WEST TO NORTHWEST WIND
DEVELOPING BEHIND IT. THIS WIND WILL USHER IN COOLER AND DRIER
AIR FOR SATURDAY INTO SATURDAY NIGHT. TEMPERATURES WILL BE
NOTICEABLY COOLER BUT STILL BE ABOVE AVERAGE. HIGHS SHOULD
REACH THE 60S TO LOWER 70S IN THE SOUTHERN AREAS.
PLENTY OF SUNSHINE ON SUNDAY. A SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST WIND WILL
REDEVELOP THROUGH THE DAY AHEAD OF THE NEXT COLD FRONT. HIGHS
TEMPERATURES WILL PUSH INTO THE LOWER 80S WIDESPREAD WITH SOME
LOWER TO MIDDLE 70S IN THE MOUNTAINS AND IN NORTHEAST MD.
DRY CONDITIONS EXPECTED UNTIL SUNDAY NIGHT WHEN SHOWERS AND A
COUPLE OF THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOP ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE
FRONT. GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS WILL DEVELOP BEHIND THE PASSING
COLD FRONT SUNDAY NIGHT INTO THE EARLY PART OF NEXT WEEK.
KEY MESSAGE 2...BENIGN WEATHER IS LIKELY MID WEEK BEFORE A COLD
FRONT BRINGS THE NEXT CHANCE OF RAIN FRIDAY.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE AREA TUESDAY WITH BELOW NORMAL
TEMPERATURES. AS THE HIGH DEPARTS WEDNESDAY, A SHORTWAVE TROUGH
COULD PROVIDE A FEW SHOWERS, THOUGH THE CONSENSUS FORECAST REMAINS
DRY FOR NOW. TEMPERATURES DO MODERATE A LITTLE BUT REMAIN NEAR
NORMAL. MODEL SPREAD, MAINLY IN THE TIMING OF TROUGHS, STARTS TO
INCREASE DURING THIS TIME. THERE WILL BE A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
PASSING WELL TO THE NORTH, AND IT MAY SEND A BACKDOOR FRONT INTO THE
AREA THURSDAY. WHETHER OR NOT THIS SOLUTION PANS OUT WILL HAVE A
LARGE EFFECT ON TEMPERATURES, WITH THE RANGE OF POSSIBILITIES FROM
THE UPPER 40S TO UPPER 60S. ANOTHER LOW WILL QUICKLY FOLLOW ACROSS
THE GREAT LAKES, WITH A STRONGER COLD FRONT PROJECTED TO REACH THE
AREA SOMETIME BETWEEN THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY NIGHT. THE TIMING OF
THESE FRONTS COULD ALSO IMPACT TEMPERATURES FRIDAY, ALTHOUGH THE
MORE IMPORTANT HIGHLIGHT IS THAT THIS FRONT WILL BRING THE NEXT
CHANCE OF RAIN.
AVIATION /18Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH TONIGHT. A COLD FRONT WILL
INITIATE SHOWER ACTIVITY AND PERHAPS A THUNDERSTORM OR TWO
AROUND MID-EVENING INTO THE MIDDLE PART OF THE OVERNIGHT. THIS
SHOWER AND STORM ACTIVITY COULD BRIEF DROP CIGS AND/OR VISBIS TO
MVFR BEFORE REBOUNDING TO VFR AT MRB AND MAYBE IAD, DCA, AND
BWI. WINDS SOUTHWEST 12 TO 20 KNOTS GUSTS HIGHER IN CONVECTION.
OTHERWISE, VFR CONDITIONS LATER OVERNIGHT. WINDS SHIFTING
NORTHWEST BECOMING LIGHT AND VARIABLE OVERNIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY
NIGHT. WINDS BECOMING SOUTHERLY AGAIN THEN SOUTHWEST AHEAD OF
THE SUNDAY NIGHT COLD FRONT. MVFR OR IFR CONDITIONS COULD
REDEVELOP WITH SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY SUNDAY NIGHT
WITH A STRONGER COLD FRONT.
NORTHWEST WINDS MAY GUST UP TO 30 KT ON MONDAY. SIGNIFICANT WEATHER
IS UNLIKELY TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS ACROSS THE
AREA.
MARINE
SCAS REMAIN IN EFFECT THROUGH TONIGHT AS GUSTS PUSH TO AROUND
20-25 KNOTS OUT OF THE SW. POST- FRONTAL NORTHWESTERLIES
ACTUALLY DECREASE A BIT ON SAT BEFORE LIGHT SOUTHERLIES RETURN
BY LATE SAT, THOUGH SCAS MAY NEED TO BE EXTENDED INTO SAT FOR
PORTIONS OF THE WATERS.
SCAS LIKELY SUN AFTERNOON THROUGH SUN NIGHT. WINDS SOUTH TO
SOUTHWEST 5 TO 15 KNOTS SUN, INCREASING OUT OF THE NW WITH GUSTS
OF 20 KNOTS SUN NIGHT.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES ARE LIKELY MONDAY INTO MONDAY NIGHT IN STRONG
POSTFRONTAL NORTHWESTERLY FLOW. SOME GUSTS OF 30 KT ARE POSSIBLE.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL PROVIDE LIGHT WINDS TUESDAY. SOUTHWEST WINDS MAY
BEGIN TO INCREASE TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY AND MAY APPROACH
ADVISORY CRITERIA.
LWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
DC...NONE.
MD...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 5 AM EDT SATURDAY FOR MDZ008.
VA...NONE.
WV...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 5 AM EDT SATURDAY FOR ANZ530>543.
DISCUSSION...ADS/AVS/KLW/CPB
AVIATION...ADS/AVS/KLW/CPB
MARINE...ADS/AVS/KLW/CPB
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