953  
FXUS61 KLWX 100133  
AFDLWX  
 
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION  
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC  
933 PM EDT TUE SEP 9 2025  
   
SYNOPSIS
 
 
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD TO THE NORTH THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF THE  
WEEK. MEANWHILE, A WEAK WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE SLIDES UP THE EAST  
COAST. A DRY COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE REGION THURSDAY,  
FOLLOWED BY ANOTHER CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM AT THE END OF  
THE WEEK INTO THIS WEEKEND.  
 

 
   
NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING/
 
 
LOW PRESSURE EAST OF THE CAROLINAS IS EVER SO GRADUALLY PUSHING  
CLOUD COVER INLAND. LOW CLOUDS FOLLOW DURING THE SECOND HALF OF  
THE NIGHT, POSSIBLY COVERING MOST AREAS EAST OF THE BLUE RIDGE  
BY WEDNESDAY MORNING. TO THE WEST WHERE IT WILL REMAIN CLEAR,  
SOME PATCHY VALLEY FOG MAY FORM.  
 
THERE HAVE BEEN A FEW REPORTS OF LIGHT RAIN ON THE EASTERN  
SHORE, BUT NOTABLE RADAR RETURNS REMAIN SPARSE. SHOWER CHANCES  
WILL INCREASE GRADUALLY FROM THE EAST OVERNIGHT, MAINLY  
SOUTHEAST OF I-95. HOWEVER, AT LEAST SOME SPOTTY SHOWERS OR  
DRIZZLE COULD REACH AS FAR WEST AS THE BLUE RIDGE. GIVEN THE DRY  
AIR MASS IN PLACE, MUCH OF THE INITIAL ACTIVITY MAY BE LOST TO  
EVAPORATION. FOR TEMPERATURES, IT WILL BE AROUND 5 DEGREES  
MILDER THAN THE PREVIOUS NIGHT, PARTICULARLY ALONG AND EAST OF  
I-95 GIVEN INCREASED CLOUD COVER.  
 

 
   
SHORT TERM /6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/
 
 
SPARSE SHOWER CHANCES PERSIST INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING ALONG THE  
CHESAPEAKE BAY SHORES. HOWEVER, IT IS MORE LIKELY THAT THESE  
SHOWERS REMAIN OVER THE EASTERN SHORE AND POINTS EASTWARD. CLOUD  
COVER REMAINS OVER AREAS EAST OF THE BLUE RIDGE, BUT THESE WILL  
EDGE EASTWARD IN TIME. SOME LATE DAY SUNSHINE IS POSSIBLE  
ACROSS THE I-95 CORRIDOR. HIGH TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST TO  
REMAIN IN THE LOW/MID 70S (60S IN THE MOUNTAINS). OVERNIGHT LOWS  
DROP INTO THE 50S, WITH SOME MID/UPPER 40S POSSIBLE OVER THE  
CENTRAL SHENANDOAH VALLEY BACK INTO THE POTOMAC HIGHLANDS.  
 
HIGH PRESSURE RETURNS ON THURSDAY WITH MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES AND  
TEMPERATURES ACTUALLY RETURNING CLOSER TO AVERAGE FOR THIS TIME  
OF YEAR, WITH HIGHS IN THE 70S TO LOW 80S.  
 

 
   
LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/
 
 
UPPER TROUGHING WILL PROGRESS OFF TO OUR SOUTH AND EAST ON FRIDAY,  
ENABLING HIGH PRESSURE TO BUILD TO OUR NORTH. THIS AREA OF HIGH  
PRESSURE WILL REMAIN IN PLACE THROUGH SATURDAY, RESULTING IN  
CONTINUED DRY CONDITIONS. GUIDANCE BEGINS TO DIVERGE BY SUNDAY AND  
MONDAY. SOME SOLUTIONS SUGGEST THAT A CUTOFF UPPER LOW MAY DEVELOP  
OVERHEAD, WHILE OTHERS MAINTAIN A MORE COHERENT AND PROGRESSIVE  
TROUGH THAT PROGRESSES OFF TO OUR EAST. IF THE CUTOFF SOLUTION WERE  
TO VERIFY THERE COULD BE A FEW SHOWERS AROUND THOSE DAYS, BUT AT THE  
MOMENT MOST SOLUTIONS FAVOR CONTINUED DRY CONDITIONS. TEMPERATURES  
WILL REMAIN NEAR NORMAL THROUGH THE LONG TERM PERIOD, WITH HIGHS IN  
THE UPPER 70S/LOW 80S AND LOWS IN THE UPPER 50S/LOW 60S.  
 

 
   
AVIATION /01Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/
 
 
EASTERLY WINDS AROUND LOW PRESSURE OFF THE CAROLINA COAST WILL  
GRADUALLY SATURATE THE AIRMASS TONIGHT. SOME LOW CLOUDS WILL  
TRY TO PUSH AS FAR WEST AS THE BLUE RIDGE OVERNIGHT INTO  
WEDNESDAY MORNING. MVFR CEILINGS ARE MOST LIKELY ACROSS THE  
METRO TERMINALS, WITH A BIT MORE UNCERTAINTY TOWARD CHO AND MRB.  
MOST GUIDANCE KEEPS IFR CEILINGS TO THE EAST, BUT IT COULD BE  
CLOSE FOR BWI AND MTN. MVFR LIKELY CONTINUES THROUGH WEDNESDAY  
AT THE ABOVE-MENTIONED LOCATIONS. NORTHERLY WINDS MAY GUST 15-20  
KT AT TIMES THROUGH THE DAY. THERE'S A BIT MORE UNCERTAINTY WITH  
HOW QUICKLY CEILINGS ERODE AS THE LOW MOVES FARTHER OFF THE  
COAST. HOWEVER, VFR MAY NOT RETURN AREA-WIDE UNTIL THURSDAY  
MORNING.  
 
PREVAILING EASTERLY WINDS AND VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED ON BOTH  
FRIDAY AND SATURDAY.  
 

 
   
MARINE
 
 
THE COMBINATION OF CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE TO THE NORTH AND LOW  
PRESSURE MOVING ALONG A STALLED FRONTAL ZONE TO THE SOUTH WILL  
AID IN ENHANCED NORTH TO NORTHEASTERLY WINDS THROUGH MID-WEEK.  
EXPECT GUSTS UP TO AROUND 20 TO 25 KNOTS, PARTICULARLY ALONG  
THE CHESAPEAKE BAY. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES CONTINUE THROUGH MUCH  
OF THE DAY ON WEDNESDAY. FOR THE UPPER/MIDDLE TIDAL POTOMAC,  
WIND GUSTS WILL LIKELY BE RIGHT ALONG THE ADVISORY THRESHOLD,  
ESPECIALLY AFTER SUNRISE WEDNESDAY.  
 
WINDS FINALLY START TO DIMINISH WEDNESDAY EVENING AS THE  
AFOREMENTIONED AREA OF LOW PRESSURE PUSHES AWAY FROM THE  
REGION, BUT SOME GUSTS MAY LINGER ON THE WIDER WATERS. SUB-SCA  
NORTHERLY WINDS ARE EXPECTED THURSDAY.  
 
SUB-SCA LEVEL EASTERLY WINDS ARE EXPECTED ON BOTH FRIDAY AND  
SATURDAY.  
 

 
   
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING
 
 
DUE TO LOW PRESSURE MOVING OFF THE COAST AND THE RECENT FULL  
MOON, TIDES WILL REMAIN ELEVATED IN THE COMING DAYS. NE WINDS  
DURING THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK MAY ASSIST IN LOCKING IN HIGHER  
WATER LEVELS AND PUSHING THE WATER TOWARD THE WESTERN SHORE.  
ALEXANDRIA, ANNAPOLIS, AND DAHLGREN ARE MOST LIKELY TO REACH  
MINOR FLOOD STAGE, BUT SOME OTHER LOCATIONS MAY BE CLOSE.  
ADDITIONAL MINOR FLOODING COULD OCCASIONALLY BE AN ISSUE  
THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK WITH NO REAL PATTERN CHANGE IN  
SIGHT.  
 

 
   
LWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
 
 
DC...NONE.  
MD...NONE.  
VA...COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT EDT TONIGHT FOR  
VAZ054.  
WV...NONE.  
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 5 PM EDT WEDNESDAY FOR  
ANZ530>534-537>543.  
 

 
 

 
 
SYNOPSIS...BRO/CJL  
NEAR TERM...ADS/BRO  
SHORT TERM...BRO/CJL  
LONG TERM...KJP  
AVIATION...ADS/BRO/CJL/KJP  
MARINE...ADS/BRO/CJL/KJP  
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...LWX  
 
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.

The Nexlab VA Page
The Nexlab MD Page
The Nexlab WV Page Main Text Page