749
FXUS61 KLWX 050610
AFDLWX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC
210 AM EDT FRI JUN 5 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES WERE MADE TO THE FORECAST OVERNIGHT.
KEY MESSAGES
- 1) A RETURN OF HOT WEATHER THROUGH SUNDAY WITH A CHANCE OF
SOME SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE WEEKEND.
- 2) COOLER TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED IN THE WAKE OF A COLD
FRONT EARLY NEXT WEEK, BEFORE WARMER TEMPERATURES RETURN MID-
WEEK.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1...A RETURN OF HOT WEATHER THROUGH SUNDAY WITH A
CHANCE OF SOME SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE WEEKEND.
EARLY MORNING SATELLITE SHOWS SOME MID AND HIGH CLOUDS WAFTING
OVER THE MID-ATLANTIC. THESE WILL CONTINUE TO ROLL OVER THE
REGION OVER THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS BETWEEN UPPER RIDGING TO THE
SOUTHWEST AND TROUGHING TO THE NORTH AND NORTHEAST.
WHILE THE CORE OF THE UPPER RIDGING WILL REMAIN CENTERED OVER
THE SOUTHEASTERN U.S., ABOVE AVERAGE HEIGHTS CONTINUE ACROSS
THE NORTHEASTERN U.S. DOWN INTO THE MID-ATLANTIC. THIS WILL
PROMOTE FURTHER WARMING, PARTICULARLY AS MEAN GRADIENTS TURN
MORE SOUTHWESTERLY IN NATURE RESULTING IN INCREASING LOW-LEVEL
THICKNESSES/TEMPS. DESPITE THE ADDED MID/HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS AT
TIMES, HIGH TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO READILY RISE INTO THE
UPPER 80S TO LOWER 90S. OVERNIGHT CONDITIONS ALSO TURN MILDER
TONIGHT INTO THE WEEKEND GIVEN THE WARMER PATTERN.
THE PEAK OF THE HEAT COMES ON SATURDAY WITH HIGHS PUSHING INTO
THE LOW/MID 90S. THIS DOES COME WITH A COUPLE OF QUESTION MARKS
AS THE NORTHERN EXTENT OF THE SOUTHEASTERN U.S. RIDGE BEGINS TO
BUCKLE. FURTHER, SOME ADDITIONAL CLOUDS MOVE INTO THE AREA ON
SATURDAY FROM UPSTREAM CONVECTION OVER THE OHIO VALLEY. WHERE
CLOUDS ARE THICKER AND MORE PLENTIFUL, SOME OF THE HEATING COULD
BE STUNTED A TAD. GIVEN IT IS EARLY JUNE, ANY DAILY RECORDS
WILL BE LIMITED GIVEN A FORECAST IN THE LOW/MID 90S. THE ONE
EXCEPTION WOULD BE KIAD (WASHINGTON DULLES) WHICH HAS A SOFTER
RECORD LAST SET AT 93 DEGREES IN 2021.
DEPENDING ON HOW UPSTREAM CONVECTION EVOLVES, SOME OF THIS COULD
REACH WESTERN/NORTHERN MARYLAND INTO PORTIONS OF THE EASTERN
WEST VIRGINIA PANHANDLE. A FEW STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS
ARE POSSIBLE OVER THIS REGION GIVEN AN UPTICK IN SHEAR AND
FORCING FOR ASCENT LATE IN THE DAY INTO THE EVENING AS THE UPPER
TROUGH DIGS SOUTH. STEEPENING LOW AND MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES AS
WELL AS AN INCREASE IN LOW AND MID-LEVEL MOISTURE LIKELY RESULT
IN 1000-2000 J/KG CAPE LATE SATURDAY AFTERNOON INTO EVENING,
DESPITE LIGHT WESTERLY (DOWNSLOPING) FLOW.
OTHERWISE, SOME RESIDUAL SHOWERS MAY PUSH THROUGH THE REGION
SATURDAY NIGHT AS THE ATTENDANT SURFACE COLD FRONT DROPS SOUTH.
COVERAGE MAY BE SOMEWHAT LIMITED GIVEN LESS THAN OPTIMAL LOW-
LEVEL MOISTURE WITH SOUTHWARD EXTENT, AND THE FRONTAL PASSAGE
OCCURRING DURING THE DIURNAL MINIMUM IN HEATING. THE COLD FRONT
LIKELY CROSSES MUCH OF THE REGION EARLY SUNDAY. AS IT STANDS,
THE CONVECTIVE THREAT IS LOOKING MORE MINIMAL ON SUNDAY AS DEW
POINTS FALL AND NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ENSUES. HOWEVER, THE FRONT'S
SOUTHWARD PROGRESS MAY SLOW DOWN WITH LINGERING MOISTURE AND
INSTABILITY PERHAPS RESULTING IN THE POTENTIAL FOR A FEW MORE
ROBUST UPDRAFTS ACROSS CENTRAL VIRGINIA. AMPLE SUNSHINE SHOULD
PUSH HIGHS BACK INTO THE UPPER 80S TO LOW 90S SUNDAY, WITH 70S
TO MID 80S IN THE MOUNTAINS.
KEY MESSAGE 2...COOLER TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED IN THE WAKE OF
A COLD FRONT EARLY NEXT WEEK, BEFORE WARMER TEMPERATURES RETURN
MID-WEEK.
AS AN UPPER TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE PIVOTS TO THE EAST, A
SURFACE HIGH WILL BUILD INTO THE REGION AND BRING COOLER
TEMPERATURES MONDAY AND TUESDAY. HIGHS SHOULD NOT REACH THE 90S
THESE TWO DAYS, BUT MANAGE TO REACH THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 80S
INSTEAD. LOW TEMPERATURES AT NIGHT WILL DROP INTO THE 50S AND
60S. AN UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER THE
EAST COAST WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY ALLOWING FOR DRY CONDITIONS
AND TEMPERATURES TO WARM UP INTO THE UPPER 80S (IF NOT THE
LOWER 90S) BY THURSDAY. THERE IS A CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND A
THUNDERSTORM OR TWO BY THURSDAY GIVEN THE ADDED INSTABILITY AND
A DISTURBANCE. THIS POSSIBLE CONVECTION COULD OCCUR AS EARLY AS
LATE WEDNESDAY EVENING DEPENDING ON THE TIMING OF MID-LEVEL
ENERGY FROM THE WEST.
AVIATION /06Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/
VFR CONDITIONS ARE LOOKING LIKELY THROUGH SATURDAY EVENING AT
THE TAF SITES, THOUGH BRIEF PATCHY FOG CAN'T TOTALLY BE RULED
OUT MAINLY NEAR MRB DURING THE EARLY AM. HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS
IN CHARGE THROUGH TONIGHT BEFORE GRADUALLY PUSHING OFFSHORE.
WINDS WILL GENERALLY BE LIGHT AOB 5 KTS VARYING BETWEEN SOUTH
AND WEST/NORTHWEST THIS MORNING, BEFORE INCREASING SLIGHTLY OUT
OF THE SOUTHWEST 4-8 KTS THIS AFTERNOON.
HEADING INTO THE WEEKEND, WINDS BECOME MAINLY WESTERLY WITH
OCCASIONAL DAYTIME GUSTS OF 15-20 KTS. ANY SHOWER CHANCES
ARRIVE LATE SATURDAY INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. THE HIGHEST
CHANCE FOR TS APPEARS TO BE NEAR KMRB SATURDAY EVENING,
POSSIBLY DOWN TO KMTN/KBWI WITH DIMINISHING CHANCES FURTHER
SOUTH. A RESTRICTION CANNOT BE RULED OUT IF PRECIP BECOMES
BRIEFLY HEAVIER, BUT SHOULD LAST LESS THAN AN HOUR. THE
OVERNIGHT TIMING OF A COLD FRONT SHOULD KEEP THUNDER CHANCES
GENERALLY LOW OVERNIGHT SATURDAY INTO EARLY SUNDAY FOR MOST.
THE COLD FRONT WILL PUSH THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA SUNDAY, AND A
SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM IS POSSIBLE NEAR KCHO MAINLY IN THE
AFTERNOON. LIGHT NW FLOW IS EXPECTED. VFR CONDITIONS MONDAY
THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT. WINDS NORTHEAST TO EAST 5 TO 10 KNOTS
MONDAY. WINDS SOUTHEAST 5 TO 10 KNOTS TUESDAY.
MARINE
GENERALLY LIGHT WEST TO SOUTHWEST WINDS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH
EARLY THIS AFTERNOON. BY MID TO LATE AFTERNOON, SOME SOUTHERLY
ENHANCEMENT DUE TO BAY BREEZES IS LIKELY OVER THE MAIN CHANNEL
OF THE CHESAPEAKE BAY BETWEEN POOLES ISLAND AND DRUM POINT MD AS
WELL AS THE TIDAL PATAPSCO INCLUDING BALTIMORE HARBOR. THESE
CHANNELING EFFECTS LIKELY LINGER INTO THE EVENING. IT IS
POSSIBLE THIS EXTENDS FURTHER SOUTH INTO THE LOWER TIDAL POTOMAC
RIVER AND MIDDLE CHESAPEAKE BAY OFF SOUTHERN MD, BUT CONFIDENCE
IS A BIT LOW AT THE MOMENT; THE PERIOD OF GUSTINESS MAY BE
BRIEF IN NATURE. HOT AIR OVER COOLER WATER MAY TEMPER MIXING A
BIT ON SATURDAY, THOUGH AT LEAST OCCASIONAL GUSTS TO NEAR 20 KTS
ARE POSSIBLE OUT OF THE WEST/SOUTHWEST AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING
COLD FRONT. SOME SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MAY AFFECT THE WATERS
ESPECIALLY TOWARD THE UPPER CHESAPEAKE BAY SATURDAY EVENING.
NORTHWEST WINDS ON SUNDAY WILL LIKELY REMAIN BELLOW SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY CRITERIA IN THE WAKE OF A COLD FRONT. NORTHEAST TO EAST
WINDS MAY APPROACH SCA LEVELS MONDAY. NO MARINE HAZARDS ARE
EXPECTED MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT AS WINDS BECOME SE.
LWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
DC...NONE.
MD...NONE.
VA...NONE.
WV...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 3 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO MIDNIGHT EDT
TONIGHT FOR ANZ531>533-538.
DISCUSSION...AVS/BRO/DHOF
AVIATION...AVS/BRO/DHOF
MARINE...AVS/BRO/DHOF
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