667
FXUS61 KLWX 200708
AFDLWX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC
308 AM EDT TUE OCT 20 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
NO CHANGES WERE MADE TO THE FORECAST OVERNIGHT.
KEY MESSAGES
- 1) COOL AND DRY WEATHER CONTINUES THROUGH THE WEEKEND,
ALTHOUGH A SLOW-MOVING NOR'EASTER OFF THE COAST WILL BRING
GUSTY WINDS ALONG THE CHESAPEAKE BAY AND MINOR TIDAL FLOODING
AT TIMES THROUGH FRIDAY.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1...COOL AND DRY WEATHER CONTINUES THROUGH THE WEEKEND,
ALTHOUGH A SLOW-MOVING NOR'EASTER OFF THE COAST WILL BRING GUSTY
WINDS ALONG THE CHESAPEAKE BAY AND MINOR TIDAL FLOODING AT TIMES
THROUGH FRIDAY.
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS OVER THE FORECAST AREA THROUGH
THE FORECAST PERIOD AS A NOR'EASTER CONTINUES TO DRIFT OFFSHORE.
A TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE NEARBY
AND THE OFFSHORE NOR'EASTER YIELD GUSTY CONDITIONS DAILY, MAINLY
ALONG AND EAST OF THE I-95 CORRIDOR. UNDER HIGH PRESSURE,
TEMPERATURES MODERATE THROUGH THURSDAY WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES
IN THE 50S AND 60S. OVERNIGHT LOW TEMPERATURES WILL BE IN THE
30S AND 40S THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT. ALOFT, UPPER LEVEL TROUGHING
DEVELOPS ACROSS THE EASTERN CONUS AS RIDGING DEVELOPS OVER
CENTRAL CONUS. BY THURSDAY, THE NOR'EASTER IS ABSORBED INTO THE
UPPER TROUGH AND TRACKS OFF THE COAST OF MAINE.
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS SOUTHWARD OUT OF SOUTHEASTERN
CANADA AND EASTERN GREAT LAKES REGIONS INTO THE MID-ATLANTIC
FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY. DRY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED EACH DAY,
WHILE TEMPERATURES WILL BE 5 TO 10 DEGREES BELOW AVERAGE.
AVIATION /06Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/
VFR CONDITIONS CONTINUE AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVERHEAD
AND DRY CONDITIONS PERSIST. WINDS REMAIN PRIMARILY OUT OF THE
NORTH EACH DAY WITH TERMINALS NEAR THE AIRPORT GUSTING AROUND 15
KNOTS IN THE AFTERNOON. OTHERWISE, TERMINALS CAN EXPECT LIGHT
NORTHERLY WINDS, NO PRECIPITATION, AND VFR CONDITIONS.
VFR CONDITIONS FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT. WINDS GENERALLY NORTH
5 TO 15 KNOTS.
MARINE
THE NOR'EASTER OFF THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST WILL DELIVER A
PROLONGED PERIOD OF SCA CONDITIONS (MAINLY OVER THE
CENTRAL/LOWER WATERS). SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES REMAIN IN EFFECT
THROUGH TONIGHT AND WILL LIKELY NEED TO BE EXTENDED. THE THREAT
IS HIGHEST IN THE LOWER PORTIONS OF THE WATERS, WITH ADDITIONAL
ADVISORIES POSSIBLE THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK. OTHERWISE, DRY
CONDITIONS AND NON-HAZARDOUS MARINE WEATHER IS EXPECTED.
NORTHERLY FLOW WITH BUILDING HIGH PRESSURE COULD ALLOW FOR SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORIES THROUGH MIDDAY FRIDAY, THEN WINDS DIMINISH AND NO
MARINE HAZARDS EXPECTED THEREAFTER.
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING
TIDAL ANOMALIES WILL RISE AGAIN THROUGH MIDWEEK AS A NOR'EASTER
STARTS DRIFTING NORTHWARD OFFSHORE. TIDAL LOCATIONS INCLUDING
DAHLGREN, ANNAPOLIS, SOLOMONS ISLAND, AND ALEXANDRIA ARE
FORECAST TO REACH MINOR FLOOD STAGE BY TUESDAY NIGHT OR
WEDNESDAY HIGH TIDE CYCLES. ANNAPOLIS COULD APPROACH MODERATE
FLOOD STAGE. HOWEVER, SOME UNCERTAINTY REMAINS ON HOW EXACTLY
THIS NOR'EASTER WILL AFFECT THE TIDE LEVELS. ELEVATED WATER
LEVELS LIKELY WON'T DECLINE UNTIL LATE IN THE WEEK WHEN THE LOW
WILL FINALLY START PULLING OUT TO SEA.
LWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
DC...NONE.
MD...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EDT WEDNESDAY FOR MDZ008.
VA...FROST ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR VAZ050-051-502-
527.
WV...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EDT WEDNESDAY FOR ANZ530-531-
538-539.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EDT WEDNESDAY FOR ANZ532>534-
537-540>543.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 8 AM THIS MORNING TO 6 PM EDT THIS
EVENING FOR ANZ535-536.
DISCUSSION...AVS/KLW
AVIATION...AVS/KLW
MARINE...AVS/KLW
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...LWX
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