051
FXUS61 KLWX 280839
AFDLWX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC
339 AM EST MON NOV 28 2022
SYNOPSIS
HIGH PRESSURE BEHIND A COLD FRONT WILL BUILD OVERHEAD THROUGH
TONIGHT BEFORE MOVING OFFSHORE TUESDAY. A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL
WILL PASS THROUGH THE AREA WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON INTO WEDNESDAY
EVENING. HIGH PRESSURE WILL RETURN FOR THURSDAY BEFORE MOVING
OFFSHORE FRIDAY. ANOTHER COLD FRONT MAY IMPACT THE AREA THIS
WEEKEND.
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/
NUMEROUS STRATOCUMULUS CLOUDS HAVE ENVELOPED THE REGION AS OF
EARLY THIS MORNING AS A WEAK SURFACE TROUGH/UPPER WAVE CROSS.
OTHER THAN A SPRINKLE OR TWO, DRY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED EAST
OF THE ALLEGHENY FRONT WHERE SOME UPSLOPE SHOWERS PERSIST.
AFTER DAYBREAK, WESTERLY TO NORTHWESTERLY BREEZES WILL
INCREASE. A PATCH OF RELATIVELY DRIER AIR MAY TRY TO PART THE
CLOUDS FOR A BIT LATER THIS MORNING, BUT A LOT OF CLOUD COVER
AND ADDITIONAL SPRINKLES ARE EXPECTED AS THE MAIN COLD
FRONT/UPPER TROUGH SWING THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON.
WINDS WILL DIMINISH THIS EVENING AND SKIES WILL CLEAR.
SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER THE REGION TUESDAY LEADING TO DRY
AND SEASONABLE CONDITIONS.
A POWERFUL UPPER TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED SURFACE COLD FRONT WILL
DIG TOWARD THE REGION WEDNESDAY. THE UPPER TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO
TAKE ON A NEGATIVE TILT, SIGNIFYING STRONG LIFT. WINDS WILL ALSO
BE QUITE STRONG WITH THIS SYSTEM, BOTH AHEAD OF AND BEHIND THE
COLD FRONT. GUSTY SOUTHERLY WINDS OF 25 TO 35 MPH ARE POSSIBLE
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON, BEFORE ABRUPTLY SHIFTING TO THE WEST AND
NORTHWEST WITH GUSTS TO AROUND 50 MPH POSSIBLE WEDNESDAY
EVENING. WINDS MAY BE ENHANCED WITH ANY SHOWER ACTIVITY ALONG
THE FRONT, AND SOME SHOWERS MAY BE HEAVY GIVEN UNUSUALLY HIGH
HUMIDITY FOR THIS LATE IN THE YEAR.
GUSTY WINDS LIKELY PERSIST IN SOME FORM WEDNESDAY NIGHT IN THE
WAKE OF THE FRONT AS COLDER/DRIER AIR POURS IN.
LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/
HIGH PRESSURE WILL APPROACH THURSDAY BEHIND A COLD FRONT. GUSTY
NORTHWEST WINDS ALONG WITH SHARPLY COLDER CONDITIONS WILL MAKE
IT FEEL MORE LIKE WINTER. HOWEVER, IT WILL REMAIN DRY. HIGHS
WILL RANGE FROM THE 20S AND 30S IN THE MOUNTAINS, TO THE 40S FOR
MOST OTHER LOCATIONS. THE HIGH WILL SETTLE OVERHEAD THURSDAY
NIGHT, AND WINDS WILL DECREASE AROUND SUNSET. LIGHT WINDS AND
MAINLY CLEAR SKIES WILL CAUSE RADIATIONAL COOLING, SO THURSDAY
NIGHT WILL BE COLD WITH LOWS IN THE 20S FOR MOST PLACES.
THE HIGH WILL MOVE OFFSHORE FRIDAY, AND A SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL
ALLOW FOR A MILDER AFTERNOON, BUT STILL COOL WITH HIGHS IN THE
40S AND 50S.
A NORTHERN STREAM SYSTEM IN A NEARLY ZONAL FLOW ALOFT WILL
APPROACH FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY, BEFORE PASSING BY TO THE
NORTH SATURDAY NIGHT. THE COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SYSTEM
WILL PASS THROUGH THE AREA LATE SATURDAY INTO SATURDAY NIGHT.
WARM ADVECTION AHEAD OF IT WILL ALLOW FOR MILDER CONDITIONS
FRIDAY NIGHT (COMPARED TO THURSDAY NIGHT) AND SATURDAY. HIGHS
SATURDAY WILL BE IN THE 50S AND 60S (40S IN THE MOUNTAINS). WITH
THE SOUTHERLY FLOW, THERE WILL BE MORE MOISTURE, AND A FEW
SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE FRONT AS EARLY AS
LATER FRIDAY NIGHT, BUT THE BETTER CHANCE WILL BE SATURDAY INTO
SATURDAY NIGHT. EXACT TIMING IS UNCERTAIN THIS FAR OUT, BUT IT
DOES APPEAR THAT ANY RAINFALL AMOUNTS WILL BE LIGHT, SINCE MOST
OF THE SOUTHERN STREAM MOISTURE WILL BE CLOSED OFF (NOTE UPPER-
LEVEL RIDGE OVER GULF OF MEXICO).
THE FRONT WILL DROP TO THE SOUTH SUNDAY, BUT A WAVE OF LOW
PRESSURE MAY TRACK ALONG THE BOUNDARY. THEREFORE, KEPT
PRECIPITATION CHANCES IN THE FORECAST FOR NOW. HOWEVER, IT IS
POSSIBLE THAT THERE IS A BREAK OF DRIER CONDITIONS IF THE HIGH
CAN BUILD FAR ENOUGH SOUTH. WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR.
AVIATION /07Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/
MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED AT THE TAF SITES THROUGH
TUESDAY NIGHT, THOUGH PATCHES OF MVFR STRATOCU CAN'T BE RULED
OUT AT TIMES ESPECIALLY THROUGH ABOUT 00Z THIS EVENING. W/NW
WINDS WILL GUST 20-25 KTS DURING THIS TIME.
SUB-VFR CONDITIONS ARE LIKELY WEDNESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT
ALONG WITH PERIODS OF LLWS AND SURFACE GUSTS IN EXCESS OF 35
KTS AS A STRONG COLD FRONT CROSSES, TURNING S WINDS W/NW.
GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS AROUND 20 TO 35 KNOTS ARE POSSIBLE
THURSDAY, BUT WINDS WILL DIMINISH QUICKLY AROUND SUNSET. WINDS
WILL TURN SOUTHERLY FRIDAY. VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY.
MARINE
W/NW WIND GUSTS OF 20 TO 25 KTS ARE EXPECTED MUCH OF TODAY IN
THE WAKE OF A PASSING COLD FRONT. WINDS WILL DIMINISH QUICKLY
THIS EVENING, THEN BECOME SOUTHERLY TUESDAY/TUESDAY NIGHT.
WINDS WILL INCREASE AGAIN WEDNESDAY AHEAD OF A STRONG COLD
FRONT, WITH GALES BECOMING INCREASINGLY LIKELY WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING. SQUALLS AND AN ABRUPT WIND
SHIFT TO THE NW MAY ACCOMPANY THE FRONT LATE WEDNESDAY.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD TOWARD THE WATERS THURSDAY BEFORE
SETTLING OVERHEAD THURSDAY NIGHT. GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS ARE
EXPECTED THURSDAY, AND AN SCA WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED FOR THE
WATERS. A GALE WARNING MAY EVEN BE NEEDED FOR PORTIONS OF THE
WATERS, ESPECIALLY THURSDAY MORNING. WINDS WILL DIMINISH
THURSDAY NIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVERHEAD, BUT AN SCA MAY
BE NEEDED THURSDAY EVENING OVER THE OPEN WATERS.
SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL INCREASE BEHIND DEPARTING HIGH PRESSURE
FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT, AND AN SCA MAY BE NEEDED FOR PORTIONS
OF THE WATERS.
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING
TIDAL ANOMALIES WILL FALL SHARPLY TODAY WITH AN OFFSHORE FLOW.
A SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL INCREASE WEDNESDAY AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT.
MINOR TIDAL FLOODING IS POSSIBLE LATE WEDNESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY
NIGHT, BUT CONFIDENCE IS LOW DEPENDING ON THE EXACT TIME OF THE
FRONTAL PASSAGE AND HOW THAT COINCIDES WITH HIGH TIDE. THE
FRONT MAY PASS THROUGH BEFORE THE HIGH TIDE WEDNESDAY NIGHT, AND
STRONG OFFSHORE WINDS MAY DEVELOP IN TIME FOR ANOMALIES TO FALL
SHARPLY BEFORE THE HIGH TIDE.
LWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
DC...NONE.
MD...NONE.
VA...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EST EARLY THIS MORNING FOR VAZ503.
WV...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EST EARLY THIS MORNING FOR WVZ501-505.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 9 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR ANZ530-
531-539-540.
GALE WATCH FROM WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING
FOR ANZ530>543.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 1 AM EST TUESDAY FOR ANZ532>534-537-
541-543.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 9 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR ANZ535-
536-538-542.
SYNOPSIS...BJL
NEAR TERM...DHOF
SHORT TERM...DHOF
LONG TERM...BJL
AVIATION...BJL/DHOF
MARINE...BJL/DHOF
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...BJL
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