569
FXUS61 KLWX 081347
AFDLWX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC
947 AM EDT FRI MAY 8 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
THE FROST ADVISORY HAS EXPIRED.
KEY MESSAGES
- 1) A DRY AND SEASONABLE AFTERNOON TODAY.
- 2) MILDER FOR THE WEEKEND WITH CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS.
- 3) COOLER TEMPERATURES EARLY NEXT WEEK MODERATE MID WEEK.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1...A DRY AND SEASONABLE AFTERNOON TODAY.
AFTER A SUNNY START, SOME HIGH BASED CUMULUS CLOUDS SHOULD
DEVELOP IN RESPONSE TO DAYTIME HEATING THIS AFTERNOON. WESTERLY
WIND GUSTS WILL ALSO INCREASE DUE TO THE DEEP BOUNDARY LAYER,
ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE AREA. TEMPERATURES
WILL REBOUND NICELY AFTER A COOL START, ULTIMATELY REACHING
HIGHS IN THE UPPER 60S TO LOWER 70S. WINDS WILL QUICKLY BECOME
SOUTHERLY THIS EVENING, WHICH WILL HELP KEEP LOW TEMPERATURES A
BIT MILDER IN THE MID 40S TO MID 50S.
KEY MESSAGE 2...MILDER FOR THE WEEKEND WITH CHANCES FOR SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS.
AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE MOVES OFFSHORE, A WARM FRONT WILL LIFT
NORTH THROUGH THE AREA SATURDAY, USHERING IN MILDER
TEMPERATURES. HIGHS SATURDAY RISE INTO THE MID 70S, WHILE
SUNDAY COULD RISE INTO THE UPPER 70S TO LOW 80S (SUBTRACT 7-10
DEGREES FOR MOUNTAIN LOCATIONS.
THERE'S STILL SOME UNCERTAINTY WITH RAIN CHANCES AND TIMING FOR
SATURDAY. SOME LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS MAY MOVE ACROSS DURING THE
MORNING HOURS WITH AN INITIAL SHORTWAVE TROUGH AND PUSH OF WARM
ADVECTION, ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE AREA.
CLOUDS MAY BREAK SOMEWHAT DURING THE AFTERNOON, AND SOME
SCATTERED CONVECTION MAY DEVELOP ALONG A PREFRONTAL TROUGH.
SHEAR WILL BE SUFFICIENT FOR ORGANIZED STORM STRUCTURES, BUT DEW
POINT RECOVERY WILL BE MODEST (50S) WITH INSTABILITY LIKELY
LIMITED TO SEVERAL HUNDRED J/KG. THUS THE SEVERE WEATHER RISK
APPEARS LOW, BUT WILL HAVE TO MONITOR THE POTENTIAL FOR SMALL
HAIL AND GUSTY WINDS.
MUCH OF SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY MORNING SHOULD BE DRY. AFTER
THAT, A COLD FRONT WILL SLOWLY SETTLE IN FROM THE NORTHWEST,
EVENTUALLY CROSSING THE AREA MONDAY. A WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE
WILL EVENTUALLY FORM ALONG THE BOUNDARY AS STRONGER TROUGHING
DIGS SOUTHEASTWARD FROM THE GREAT LAKES. THIS COULD ULTIMATELY
BRING A STEADIER RAINFALL TO PARTS OF THE AREA, BUT THESE
DETAILS REMAIN UNCERTAIN. THE HIGHEST CHANCES FOR RAIN WILL BE
SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY MORNING. WHILE A FEW THUNDERSTORMS
COULD BE IN THE MIX, OVERALL INSTABILITY SHOULD BE MINIMAL
THROUGH THE PERIOD.
KEY MESSAGE 3...COOLER TEMPERATURES EARLY NEXT WEEK MODERATE MID
WEEK.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL QUICKLY BUILD IN FROM THE WEST MONDAY NIGHT. THIS
WILL RESULT IN LIGHT WINDS AND FAVORABLE RADIATIONAL COOLING
CONDITIONS. FROST OR NEAR FREEZING TEMPERATURES COULD RESULT IN THE
SHELTERED VALLEYS NEAR AND WEST OF I-81.
THE HIGH PRESSURE WILL DRIFT OFFSHORE TUESDAY MARKING RETURN FLOW
AND MODERATING TEMPERATURES. THE WARMING TREND WILL BE MORE
NOTICEABLE HEADING INTO WEDNESDAY AS A WARM FRONT LIFTS INTO THE
REGION, FOLLOWED BY A COLD FRONT BY THURSDAY. THIS FRONTAL SYSTEM
WILL BRING A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS MID WEEK.
AVIATION /13Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/
VFR CONDITIONS CONTINUE WITH SOME HIGH BASED CUMULUS THIS
AFTERNOON, AND MID LEVEL CEILINGS TONIGHT.
WINDS WILL BECOME MORE WESTERLY THROUGH TODAY AND MAY GUST TO
AROUND 20-25 KT DURING THE AFTERNOON. WINDS TURN SOUTHERLY
QUICKLY THIS EVENING AND PERSIST THROUGH SATURDAY, WHEN SOME
ADDITIONAL 20 KT GUSTS ARE POSSIBLE. SOME LIGHT SHOWERS ARE
POSSIBLE SATURDAY MORNING, WITH ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE IN THE AFTERNOON, ESPECIALLY NEAR THE
METRO TERMINALS.
VFR CONDITIONS CAN BE EXPECTED FOR MUCH OF SUNDAY. HOWEVER, A
COLD FRONT WILL DROP INTO THE AREA LATE IN THE DAY. WIDESPREAD
RAIN AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS CAN BE EXPECTED AS THIS FRONT
TRAVERSES THE REGION, ESPECIALLY SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY
MORNING. EXPECT VSBY REDUCTIONS AND REDUCED CIGS DURING THIS
TIME.
ANY LINGERING RAIN CHANCES SHOULD PULL OFFSHORE BY MIDDAY MONDAY
RESULTING IN VFR CONDITIONS AND NORTH TO NORTHWEST WINDS. GUSTS MAY
REACH 20 TO 25 KNOTS IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT MONDAY BEFORE BECOMING
LIGHTER MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY AND SHIFTING TO THE SOUTH.
MARINE
BY THIS AFTERNOON, WINDS WILL GENERALLY BE OUT OF THE WEST TO
SOUTHWEST. GUSTS ARE FORECAST TO REACH LOW-END SCA LEVELS ACROSS
THE NARROWER WATERS OF THE UPPER BAY AND UPPER TIDAL POTOMAC.
WINDS BECOME SOUTHERLY QUICKLY THIS EVENING. ANOTHER SCA HAS
BEEN ISSUED SOUTH OF SANDY POINT AS SOUTHERLY CHANNELING IS
EXPECTED TO INCREASE THROUGH THE NIGHT. ALL WATERS MAY NEED AN
ADVISORY SATURDAY AS SOUTHERLY FLOW CONTINUES. ISOLATED TO
SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS MAY AFFECT THE WATERS SATURDAY AFTERNOON
AND EARLY EVENING.
LIGHTER WINDS ARE EXPECTED SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY. SHOWERS
AND PERHAPS A FEW THUNDERSTORMS ALONG A COLD FRONT WILL LIKELY
CROSS THE WATERS MAINLY SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY MORNING. THE
ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE WATERS EARLY MONDAY WITH A
SHIFT TO NORTHWESTERLIES WITH GUSTS UP TO 20 TO 25 KNOTS. SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORIES WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED LATE SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH
PART OF MONDAY NIGHT. BUILDING HIGH PRESSURE WILL RESULT IN
LIGHTER WINDS BY TUESDAY BEFORE SHIFTING TO THE SOUTH.
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING
SOUTHERLY FLOW IS EXPECTED LATE THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH SATURDAY
NIGHT. FLOW MAY BE OCCASIONALLY ENHANCED BY SOUTHERLY
CHANNELING, BUT MAY ALSO EXHIBIT A BIT WEST-OF-SOUTH COMPONENT
AT TIMES. THIS MAKES THE TIDE FORECAST SOMEWHAT UNCERTAIN, AS A
MORE SOUTH TO SLIGHTLY EAST-OF-SOUTH COMPONENT AT SLIGHTLY
HIGHER SPEEDS WOULD RESULT IN HIGHER WATER LEVELS APPROACHING
1.5 FEET ABOVE NORMAL AND A RESULTING HIGHER POTENTIAL FOR MINOR
FLOODING AT PLACES LIKE ANNAPOLIS AND HAVRE DE GRACE HEADING
INTO SATURDAY. WIND DIRECTION MAY BE A BIT MORE VARIABLE SUNDAY
INTO SUNDAY EVENING INTRODUCING FURTHER UNCERTAINTY TO THE TIDE
FORECAST, THOUGH LINGERING ELEVATED WATER LEVELS CERTAINLY SEEM
PLAUSIBLE UNTIL A COLD FRONT CROSSES SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY.
LWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
DC...NONE.
MD...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR MDZ008.
VA...NONE.
WV...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR ANZ530-
531-535-538.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 6 PM THIS EVENING TO 6 AM EDT
SATURDAY FOR ANZ532>534-537-540-541-543.
DISCUSSION...ADS/DHOF/CPB
AVIATION...ADS/DHOF
MARINE...ADS/DHOF
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