924
FXUS61 KLWX 041844
AFDLWX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC
244 PM EDT MON MAY 4 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT ISSUED FOR AREAS WEST OF I-95 IN
VIRGINIA FOR TUESDAY AFTERNOON. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES ISSUED
THROUGH TUESDAY, WHICH WILL LIKELY NEED TO BE EXTENDED THROUGH
THE END OF THE WORK WEEK.
KEY MESSAGES
- CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS LATE THIS EVENING THROUGH THIS EVENING.
ENHANCED FIRE WEATHER THREAT TUESDAY AFTERNOON.
- BENEFICIAL RAIN MIDWEEK.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1...CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS LATE THIS EVENING THROUGH THIS EVENING.
ENHANCED FIRE WEATHER THREAT TUESDAY AFTERNOON.
KEY MESSAGE 1 DESCRIPTION...
A WEAK SHORTWAVE-TROUGH WILL PASS ACROSS THE AREA THIS EVENING AND
MAY KICK A FEW SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS LATE THIS AFTERNOON
THROUGH MID EVENING, MAINLY ACROSS THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE FCST
AREA. OTHERWISE, MILDER AND BREEZY.
TUESDAY...SHORTWAVE RIDGING BUILDS IN RESULTING IN A SUBSIDENCE
PATTERN. SSW FLOW IS EXPECTED TO STRENGTHEN ADVECTING AN
ELEVATED MIXED LAYER SUPPRESSING CLOUDS AND CONVECTIVE
POTENTIAL. MODEL SOUNDINGS INDICATE MIXING POTENTIAL UP TO 800
MB OR 6 KFT WHICH WOULD RESULT IN GUSTS UP TO 35 MPH AND MIN RH
IN THE MID 20S. ANY SHOWERS TODAY WOULD BE VERY BRIEF AND NOT
RESULT IN ANY SIGNIFICANT INCREASE IN FUEL MOISTURE. FOR THIS
REASON, A FIRE SPS HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR TOMORROW. PLEASE REFER TO
FIRE WEATHER SECTION FOR MORE DETAILS.
KEY MESSAGE 2...BENEFICIAL RAIN MIDWEEK.
KEY MESSAGE 2 DESCRIPTION...
A POTENT UL TROF MOVES OVER THE GREAT LKS WED, DRAGGING A
CDFNT TOWARDS THE LOCAL FA. PRE-FRONTAL MOISTURE WILL SURGE
INTO THE AREA WITH PWS REACHING 1-1.5". THIS WILL YIELD
WIDESPREAD SHRA WITH A FEW TS WED MORN THROUGH WED EVE. TOTAL
RAINFALL AMOUNTS WITH THIS PORTION LOOK TO RANGE 0.25-0.5".
SECONDARY FRONT MOVES SOUTH THU, WITH OVERRUNNING PRECIP EXPECTED.
GENERALLY LIGHT AMOUNTS EXPECTED, ANOTHER TENTH TO QUARTER INCH.
POSSIBILITY OF SOMEONE BEING SOUTH OF HEAVIER AXIS WED AND NORTH OF
AXIS ON WED RESULTING IN LOCAL MIN IN QPF. SVR THREAT RATHER LOW
WITH ALL MIDWEEK RAIN.
TEMPS DECREASE THU WITH SLIGHT INCREASE THROUGH THE WEEKEND. SOME
WAVES POSSIBLE THROUGH THE WEEKEND RESULTING IN SHOWERS.
AVIATION /18Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/
GUSTY S TO SSW WINDS OF 20-25 KT EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON AND
TUESDAY AFTERNOON. BRIEF SHRA OR TSRA AT MRB EARLY THIS EVENING.
WIDESPREAD SHOWERS WED-THU WITH MVFR CIGS EXPECTED.
MARINE
SCA CONDITIONS EXPECTED ALL WEEK IN S WINDS TODAY THROUGH WED,
THEN IN N WINDS LATE WED NIGHT THROUGH THE END OF THE WORK WEEK.
FIRE WEATHER
ELEVATED TO NEAR CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
TUESDAY AFTERNOON DUE TO GUSTY WINDS 30 TO 35 MPH, LOW
HUMIDITIES IN THE MID 20S, AND FUEL MOISTURE BETWEEN 8-10%.
THE GREATEST RISK FOR DANGEROUS FIRE WX BEHAVIOR IS WEST OF THE
BLUE RIDGE MOUNTAINS WHERE RECENT COOL TEMPERATURES AND FREEZES
HAVE SLOWED DOWN GREEN-UP. GREENER VEGETATION EAST OF THE BLUE
RIDGE MOUNTAINS SHOULD PRECLUDE ANY FIRES FROM EXHIBITING
EXTREME FIRE BEHAVIOR, BUT GUSTY WINDS OF 30-35 MPH MAY STILL
CAUSE FIRE CONTAINMENT DIFFICULT EVEN THOUGH FUELS ARE NOT AS
DRY AS THEY WERE TWO WEEKS AGO.
LWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
DC...NONE.
MD...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR MDZ008.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM NOON TO 8 PM EDT TUESDAY FOR MDZ008.
VA...NONE.
WV...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR ANZ530-
531-535-536-538-539-542.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM NOON TO 8 PM EDT TUESDAY FOR ANZ530-
531-535-536-538-539-542.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM EDT TUESDAY FOR ANZ532>534-537-
540-541-543.
DISCUSSION...LFR/CPB
AVIATION...LFR/CPB
MARINE...LFR/CPB
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