275
FXUS61 KLWX 010046
AFDLWX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC
846 PM EDT SAT MAY 31 2025
SYNOPSIS
A COLD FRONT WILL PUSH THROUGH THE REGION BY THIS EVENING. HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE AREA OVERNIGHT AND REMAIN IN
CONTROL THROUGH MUCH OF THE UPCOMING WEEK. ANOTHER AREA OF LOW
PRESSURE MAY BRING A FRONT THROUGH THE REGION TOWARDS THE END OF
THE WEEK.
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/
LOW PRESSURE HAS PUSHED WELL OF TO THE NORTHEAST, AND THE
ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT HAS FINALLY PUSHED ITS WAY THROUGH OUR
REGION. STILL SEEING SOME RESIDUAL WIND GUSTS ALONG THE FRONT IN
CENTRAL VA INTO SOUTHERN MD, BUT THOSE ARE QUICKLY TAPERING OFF
AS THE SUN SETS. MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES ARE TAKING SHAPE ACROSS A
MAJORITY OF THE AREA, WITH THE MAIN EXCEPTION BEING ALONG THE
MD/PA BORDER, WHERE WRAPAROUND MOISTURE CONTINUES TO FUEL SOME
CLOUD DEVELOPMENT. THOSE WILL DEPART TO THE NORTHEAST AS THE LOW
MOVES EVEN FURTHER AWAY OVERNIGHT. ADDITIONALLY, SOME HIGH
CLOUDS TO OUR WEST WILL LIKELY BE NOTICED. THESE ARE ACTUALLY
NOT CLOUDS, BUT SMOKE FROM CANADIAN WILDFIRES. THIS WILL LIKELY
BE VISIBLE IN SOME CAPACITY IN THE COMING DAYS.
DRY CONDITIONS WILL ENSUE BEHIND THE FRONT TONIGHT AS HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE NORTHWEST OVERNIGHT. WINDS WILL
QUICKLY TAPER OFF BY AROUND MIDNIGHT OR SO TO GENERALLY AROUND
5-8 MPH FOR MOST. LOW TEMPERATURES WILL FALL INTO THE MIDDLE
40S TO LOWER 50S WITH A COUPLE OF LOCATIONS SEEING THE 30S IN
THE RIDGES.
SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/
A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE AXIS WILL BE POSITIONED TO OUR EAST ON
SUNDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN IN CONTROL AND KEEP THE REGION
DRY SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT. TEMPERATURES WILL BE SEASONABLY
COOL WITH HIGHS IN THE 70S BUT 60S IN THE MOUNTAINS.
LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE NEARLY OVERHEAD TUESDAY AS UPPER LEVEL RIDGING
BUILDS FROM THE WEST. AS RIDGING SLIDES EAST, A QUICK WARM UP WILL
OCCUR DURING THE MIDDLE PART OF THE WEEK. HIGHS WILL BE IN THE LOWER
TO MID 80S TUESDAY, WITH THE HOTTEST DAYS BEING WEDNESDAY AND
THURSDAY WHEN 90 DEGREE POTENTIAL INCREASES. FOR SOME LOCATIONS YET
TO REACH 90, THIS WILL BE ONE OF THE LATER FIRST OCCURRENCES IN AT
LEAST THE PAST DECADE. DEW POINTS WILL START RISING TOO, ALTHOUGH
TRULY MUGGY AIR MAY NOT ARRIVE UNTIL THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. CONDITIONS
WILL LIKELY REMAIN DRY THROUGH EARLY THURSDAY.
TROUGHING TO THE NORTHWEST WILL SLOWLY BREAK DOWN THE RIDGE DURING
THE SECOND HALF OF THE WEEK. IT'S STILL UNCERTAIN HOW QUICKLY THE
FORCING MOVES INTO THE AREA, WITH THE FRONTAL ZONE LIKELY TO ARRIVE
FRIDAY OR SATURDAY. ANY SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES WILL LIKELY
BE LIMITED TO THE NORTHWESTERN PARTS OF THE FORECAST AREA THURSDAY,
WITH HIGHER CHANCES AREAWIDE FRIDAY AND SATURDAY. WILL HAVE TO KEEP
AN EYE ON THIS PERIOD FOR POTENTIAL STRONGER THUNDERSTORMS AS WELL.
TEMPERATURES WILL LIKELY LOWER A BIT FRIDAY AND SATURDAY AS HEIGHTS
FALL, BUT STILL REMAIN ABOVE NORMAL.
AVIATION /01Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/
VFR CONDITIONS FOR ALL TERMINALS TONIGHT IN THE WAKE OF A
DEPARTING COLD FRONT. WINDS WILL BE ON THE GUSTY SIDE THROUGH
AROUND 01Z-02Z, BUT SHOULD TAPER OFF THEREAFTER.
VFR CONDITIONS SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT WITH HIGH PRESSURE
IN CONTROL.
VFR CONDITIONS AND LIGHT SOUTH WINDS WILL PREVAIL TUESDAY THROUGH
THURSDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE SLIDES TO THE EAST. A SHOWER OR
THUNDERSTORM COULD APPROACH MRB LATER THURSDAY.
MARINE
SCA CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE DUE TO A GUSTY WESTERLY FLOW INTO
THE EVENING IN THE WAKE OF A PASSING COLD FRONT. WINDS WILL
TAPER OFF OVERNIGHT, BUT LIKELY REMAIN NEAR SCA CRITERIA UNTIL
CLOSE TO DAYBREAK ON SUNDAY.
LOW-END SCA GUSTS POSSIBLE IN THE WESTERLY FLOW SUNDAY, BUT
CONFIDENCE IS LOW. WHERE CONFIDENCE MAY BE A LITTLE HIGHER IS
THE NORTHERN THIRD OF THE CHESAPEAKE BAY. SUB-SCA CONDITIONS ARE
FORECAST MONDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS
ACROSS THE AREA. NORTHWEST WINDS ON MONDAY.
GENERALLY LIGHT SOUTH WINDS ARE EXPECTED TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY AS
HIGH PRESSURE MOVES TO THE EAST. SOUTHERLY CHANNELING ALONG THE BAY
WEDNESDAY NIGHT MAY APPROACH ADVISORY LEVELS.
LWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
DC...NONE.
MD...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EDT SUNDAY FOR MDZ008.
VA...NONE.
WV...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EDT SUNDAY FOR ANZ530>534-
537>543.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 11 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR ANZ535-
536.
SYNOPSIS...KLW
NEAR TERM...CJL
SHORT TERM...KLW
LONG TERM...ADS
AVIATION...ADS/KLW/CJL
MARINE...ADS/KLW/CJL
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