821
FXUS61 KLWX 291514
AFDLWX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC
1014 AM EST THU JAN 29 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
THIS MORNING'S COLD WEATHER HEADLINES WILL EXPIRE ON SCHEDULE.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY EXTENDED INTO TONIGHT FOR PORTIONS OF THE
CHESAPEAKE BAY.
KEY MESSAGES
- 1) STRONG COASTAL LOW TO BRING GUSTY WINDS, BITTER WIND
CHILLS, AND POTENTIAL FOR SNOW THIS WEEKEND.
- 2) DANGEROUSLY COLD TEMPERATURES AND WIND CHILLS LOOK TO
CONTINUE THROUGH THE UPCOMING WEEKEND.
- 3) BLOWING AND DRIFTING SNOW WILL CONTINUE ALONG THE
ALLEGHENY FRONT THROUGH TONIGHT.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1...STRONG COASTAL LOW TO BRING GUSTY WINDS, BITTER WIND
CHILLS, AND POTENTIAL FOR SNOW THIS WEEKEND.
A BROAD ZONAL TROUGH STRETCHING FROM THE UPPER PLAINS TO THE
NORTHEAST WILL DIG ACROSS THE TN VALLEY TOWARD THE DEEP SOUTH THIS
WEEKEND. MODELS ARE IN GREAT AGREEMENT REGARDING THE ANOMALOUS
STRENGTH OF THIS TROUGH, WITH MID-LEVEL HEIGHTS APPROACHING RECORD
LOW VALUES OVER SOME SOUTHERN STATES. THE UPPER TROUGH ASSUMES A
NEUTRAL TILT AS IT TRACKS ACROSS THE CAROLINAS/GA. SURFACE
CYCLOGENESIS IS LIKELY TO OCCUR OVER THE GULF STREAM OFF THE
GA/CAROLINA COAST SATURDAY, AND WILL RAPIDLY DEEPEN THROUGHOUT THE
DAY INTO SUNDAY. THE LOW WILL RACE OFF TO THE NE UP THE EASTERN
SEABOARD THROUGH MONDAY.
LOCALLY, THE CHANCES FOR LARGE AMOUNTS OF SNOWFALL HAVE GONE DOWN
SIGNIFICANTLY IN RECENT DAYS. THE SYNOPTIC PATTERN FAVORS
DEVELOPMENT OF THIS LOW TOO FAR SOUTHEAST TO BRING WARNING-LEVEL
SNOWFALL TO THE REGION, AND WILL MOVE OFFSHORE TOO QUICKLY TO GIVE
US ANY OF THE WRAP-AROUND MOISTURE TO BOLSTER SNOW TOTALS. IT IS
LOOKING INCREASINGLY LIKELY THAT THOSE WEST OF I-95 WILL REMAIN DRY.
FOR THOSE EAST OF I-95 AND IN FAR SOUTHERN PARTS OF THE CWA,
THERE IS A HIGHER CHANCE OF AT LEAST AN INCH OR TWO OF
SNOWFALL, SO THAT STILL SEEMS A PLAUSIBLE SOLUTION AT THIS TIME.
SOME OF THE HIGH- END "WORST CASE SCENARIOS" OUT THERE DO BRING
HEAVY SNOW FURTHER WEST, BUT BARRING A SUBSTANTIAL SHIFT IN THE
KEY FEATURES AT PLAY WITH THIS SYSTEM, THESE JUST SEEM VERY
UNLIKELY. THERE IS LIKELY TO BE A VERY SHARP CUTOFF IN QPF AND
SNOW AMOUNTS ON THE NORTHERN SIDE OF THE SYSTEM, WITH A SHORT
DISTANCE BETWEEN A COATING OF SNOW TO SEVERAL INCHES. AT THIS
TIME, CONFIDENCE IN SIGNIFICANT IMPACTS (PER THE LATEST WSSI)
REMAIN OVER SOUTHERN VA INTO THE CAROLINAS. ANOTHER ASPECT OF
THE SNOW AS THE LOW PULLS OFF THE NE, SOME UPSLOPE SNOW IS
POSSIBLE ACROSS THE ALLEGHENIES. MODELS VARY WITH QPF, BUT A
FLUFFY COUPLE INCHES IS CERTAINLY POSSIBLE.
A UNDERRATED ASPECT OF THIS SYSTEM, AT LEAST TO THIS POINT, HAS TO
BE THE FORECAST WIND FIELD. OF COURSE, THE TRACK OF THE LOW WILL BE
A KEY PLAYER IN HOW STRONG WINDS ARE, BUT LATEST GUIDANCE HAS US IN
THE 30 TO 40 MPH RANGE. THIS COULD INCREASE IF THE TRACK OF THE LOW
IS CLOSER TO SHORE, WHICH COULD PUSH US CLOSER TO THAT CRITERIA.
EITHER WAY, SOME MINOR WIND DAMAGE IS POSSIBLE SUNDAY, ESPECIALLY IF
LOOSES ITEMS ARE LEFT UNTETHERED OUTDOORS.
KEY MESSAGE 2...DANGEROUSLY COLD TEMPERATURES AND WIND CHILLS LOOK
TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE UPCOMING WEEKEND.
THERE ARE STILL SOME SUB-ZERO WIND CHILLS ACROSS NORTHERN
MARYLAND, BUT OVERALL, THIS MORNING'S COLD WEATHER ADVISORIES
WILL BE ALLOWED TO EXPIRE IN THE LOWER ELEVATIONS. ADVISORIES
CONTINUE ALONG THE ALLEGHENY MOUNTAINS THROUGHOUT THE DAY. THERE
IS ANOTHER ROUND OF COLD WX ADVISORIES FOR TONIGHT WHERE
CRITERIA IS EXPECTED TO BE MET. DID NOT ISSUE FOR SHENANDOAH
VALLEY/VA PIEDMONT AS WINDS EXPECTED TO BE LIGHTER, ALTHOUGH
SOME LOCATIONS COULD COME CLOSE TO CRITERIA JUST ON THE AIR
TEMPERATURE.
ADDITIONAL PIECES OF SHORTWAVE ENERGY, BRINGING CONTINUED SHOTS OF
ARCTIC AIR, WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THIS WEEKEND WITHIN PERSISTENT
CYCLONIC FLOW. THIS WILL RESULT IN A CONTINUATION OF FRIGID
CONDITIONS WITH HIGHS DURING THE DAYLIGHT HOURS STRUGGLING TO GET
OUT OF THE TEENS AND 20S (SINGLE DIGITS MOUNTAINS) AND OVERNIGHT
LOWS IN THE SINGLE DIGITS AND TEENS (SUBZERO MOUNTAINS). WIND CHILL
FACTORS WILL REMAIN AT OR BELOW ZERO DURING THE OVERNIGHT/EARLY
MORNING HOURS WITH WIND CHILLS IN THE SINGLE DIGITS/TEENS DURING THE
DAYLIGHT HOURS. THE LITTLE BIT OF SUNSHINE EACH DAY SHOULD HELP WITH
MARGINAL MELTING ALTHOUGH REFREEZE IS EXPECTED EVERY NIGHT.
CONFIDENCE REMAINS HIGH FOR THE PROLONGED ARCTIC OUTBREAK TO
CONTINUE THROUGH THE WEEKEND WITH SOME INCLINATION OF GETTING BACK
TOWARD FREEZING BY THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.
ONE DAY OF PARTICULAR NOTE IS SUNDAY, WHERE WE WILL START TO GET
INTO MUCH WINDIER CONDITIONS ACROSS THE AREA. GIVEN THE UPTICK IN
THE WIND FORECAST, PAIRED WITH AN EXTREMELY COLD AIR MASS, WIND
CHILL MAY STRUGGLE TO GET OUT OF THE SINGLE DIGITS FOR MOST, AND MAY
EVEN BE NEAR 0 DURING THE DAYTIME... SHOULD THIS FORECAST PAN OUT,
IN TERMS OF WIND CHILL, THIS WOULD BE AMONG THE COLDEST DAYS IN THIS
ARCTIC OUTBREAK.
SUBTLETIES ASSOCIATED WITH COLD WEATHER HEADLINES WILL EXIST EACH
DAY INTO THE WEEKEND, AND THERE'S NO LONGER AN OBVIOUS "COLDEST"
NIGHT...JUST SOME SLIGHT VARIATIONS BETWEEN THEM. THE BOTTOM LINE IS
IT WILL BE COLD AND TO CONTINUE TO PREPARE TO PROTECT YOURSELF,
OTHERS, PETS, AND LIVESTOCK.
RIVER ICE IS LIKELY TO CONTINUE INCREASING IN COVERAGE ACROSS
THE AREA, WITH INCREASING THICKNESS OVER THE COMING WEEKS. THIS
INCLUDES PORTIONS OF THE BAY ALONG WITH MAIN STEM RIVER/CREEKS
ACROSS THE REGION.
KEY MESSAGE 3...BLOWING AND DRIFTING SNOW WILL CONTINUE ALONG THE
ALLEGHENY FRONT THROUGH TONIGHT.
FOR THE ALLEGHENIES, EXPECT ANOTHER COATING TO INCH OR SO OF
SNOW, WITH LOCALIZED POCKETS UP TO 2 INCHES IF ANY HEAVIER SNOW
SHOWERS PUSH THROUGH THROUGH THIS EVENING. REGARDLESS OF HOW
MUCH LIGHT SNOW FALLS, THE MAIN STORY OVER THE ALLEGHENIES WILL
LIKELY BE THE CONTINUATION OF BLOWING AND DRIFTING OF THE
FLUFFY SNOW. THIS WILL LEAD TO CONTINUED ISSUES ON ROADWAYS,
ESPECIALLY IN OPEN AREAS (I.E HIGH MOUNTAIN FIELDS ETC.).
CONTINUED TO RUN BLOWING SNOW OVER THE MOUNTAINS IN THE GRIDS.
AVIATION /15Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE VALID TAF
PERIOD. EXPECT W TO NW WINDS GUSTING 20 TO 25 KTS THIS
AFTERNOON. VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE AT ALL TERMINALS THROUGH
FRI WITH WINDS SHIFTING BACK MORE NW'LY.
SUB-VFR CONDITIONS RETURN TO PORTIONS OF THE AREA THIS WEEKEND
PENDING THE TRACK AND INTENSITY OF COASTAL LOW PRESSURE. IF THE
SYSTEM TRACKS FURTHER OUT TO SEA, CONDITIONS WOULD FAVOR VFR AMONGST
ALL THE TERMINALS. HIGHEST LIKELIHOOD SUB-VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED AS
EARLY AS LATE FRI NIGHT THROUGH SUN MORNING. ONE THING THAT WE
DO KNOW IS THAT THE WIND WILL INCREASE WITH THIS SYSTEM FOR THE
UPCOMING WEEKEND. EXPECT AN INCREASING PROBABILITY OF
N/NW GUSTS 25 KTS+ THIS WEEKEND. WINDS WILL REMAIN ELEVATED
INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.
MARINE
SCAS CONTINUE ON ALL WATERS THROUGH THIS EVENING. HAVE EXTENDED
THE ADVISORIES INTO THE NIGHT ALONG PORTIONS OF THE CHESAPEAKE
BAY AS NNW WINDS AND COLD AIR SHOULD ALLOW ENHANCEMENT OF THE
WINDS ACROSS THE WATERS. SUB-SCA LEVEL WINDS RETURN FRI. WINDS
WILL SHIFT TO THE NORTH LATE FRI INTO SAT AS COASTAL LOW
PRESSURE PASSES OFFSHORE.
A COASTAL LOW IS LIKELY TO DEVELOP OFF THE CAROLINA COASTLINE EARLY
THIS WEEKEND, THEN RAPIDLY TRACK NORTHEAST NEAR THE EASTERN SEABOARD
THROUGH EARLY MON. AS THE LOW APPROACHES, EXPECT WINDS TO
INCREASE OVER THE WATERS. THE STRONGEST WINDS WILL ARRIVE
SATURDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY MORNING AS THE LOW PRESSURE MAKES ITS
CLOSEST APPROACH TO THE LOCAL WATERS. GALE CONDITIONS ARE
BECOMING LIKELY, WITH GUSTS OF AT LEAST 35-40 KT OVER MOST OF
THE WATERS. SOME MODEL GUIDANCE INDICATES GUSTS TO NEAR STORM
FORCE (50 KT) ARE POSSIBLE IN THE OPEN WATERS OF THE CENTRAL TO
SOUTHERN CHESAPEAKE BAY. THIS WILL ALL DEPEND ON HOW CLOSE THE
LOW TRACKS. WILL LET DAY SHIFT EVALUATE LATEST GUIDANCE AND
POTENTIALLY ISSUE A GALE WATCH. REGARDLESS, DANGEROUS AND LIFE
THREATENING MARINE CONDITIONS ARE LIKELY OVER THE WATERS THIS
WEEKEND.
LWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
DC...COLD WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 11 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR DCZ001.
COLD WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 7 PM THIS EVENING TO 11 AM EST
FRIDAY FOR DCZ001.
MD...COLD WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 11 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR
MDZ003>006-008-011-013-014-016>018-502>508.
COLD WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 7 PM THIS EVENING TO 11 AM EST
FRIDAY FOR MDZ006-008-011-013-014-016>018-503>508.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR MDZ008.
COLD WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 11 AM EST FRIDAY FOR MDZ501-509-
510.
VA...COLD WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 11 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR
VAZ025>031-038>040-050-051-053>057-501-502-504>508-526-
527.
COLD WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 7 PM THIS EVENING TO 11 AM EST
FRIDAY FOR VAZ053-054-501-505>508-526-527.
EXTREME COLD WARNING UNTIL 11 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR VAZ503.
COLD WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 11 AM EST FRIDAY FOR VAZ503.
WV...COLD WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 11 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR
WVZ050>053-055-502-504-506.
COLD WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 11 AM EST FRIDAY FOR WVZ503.
EXTREME COLD WARNING UNTIL 11 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR WVZ501-
505.
COLD WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 11 AM EST FRIDAY FOR WVZ501-505.
MARINE...COLD WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 11 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR ANZ530.
COLD WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 7 PM THIS EVENING TO 11 AM EST
FRIDAY FOR ANZ530.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR ANZ530-
538-542.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT EST TONIGHT FOR ANZ531-537-
539-540.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EST FRIDAY FOR ANZ532>534-541-
543.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 5 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR ANZ535-
536.
DISCUSSION...ADS/CJL/CPB
AVIATION...ADS/CJL/CPB
MARINE...ADS/CJL/CPB
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