567
FXUS61 KLWX 061924
AFDLWX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC
324 PM EDT WED MAY 6 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
THE THREAT FOR THUNDERSTORMS THIS EVENING APPEARS TO BE
TRENDING DOWNWARD.
KEY MESSAGES
- 1) A COLD FRONT WILL PASS THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON INTO THIS
EVENING, BRINGING CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.
- 2) MUCH COOLER AIR MOVES IN FOR THURSDAY AND FRIDAY, WITH
FROST AND/OR FREEZING TEMPERATURES POSSIBLE IN THE ALLEGHENIES
THURSDAY NIGHT.
- 3) MILDER FOR THE WEEKEND WITH INCREASING RAIN CHANCES.
- 4) BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES RETURN EARLY NEXT WEEK.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1...A COLD FRONT WILL PASS THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON INTO THIS
EVENING, BRINGING CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.
EARLIER STRATIFORM RAIN HAS DEPARTED OFF TOWARD THE EAST, BUT
CLOUD COVER STILL REMAINS IN PLACE. A SURFACE COLD FRONT IS
MAKING SLOW EASTWARD PROGRESS ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA, AND IS
CURRENTLY LOCATED JUST TO THE WEST OF I-81. SURFACE HEATING HAS
BEEN LIMITED BY THICK CLOUD COVER, AND ONLY MEAGER (AROUND 250
J/KG) INSTABILITY HAS BEEN ABLE TO DEVELOP IN ADVANCE OF THE
FRONT. RAP FORECASTS SUGGEST THAT INSTABILITY MAY EVENTUALLY
REACH AROUND 500 J/KG TO THE EAST OF THE BLUE RIDGE LATER THIS
AFTERNOON. SHEAR ON THE OTHER HAND, WON'T BE LACKING, WITH MOST
FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOWING AROUND 60 KNOTS OF EFFECTIVE BULK
SHEAR, AND 100+ KNOTS OF SHEAR IN THE CLOUD BEARING LAYER.
THERMODYNAMICALLY SPEAKING, THE LOW-LEVELS ARE CLOSE TO
SATURATION, BUT THERE'S A FAIR AMOUNT OF DRY AIR PRESENT IN THE
MID-LEVELS. WITH THE COMBINATION OF THE DRY AIR AND VERY STRONG
SHEAR THROUGH THE MID-LEVELS, SHOWERS FORCED BY LOW-LEVEL
CONVERGENCE ALONG THE ADVANCING FRONT MAY STRUGGLE TO DEEPEN AND
INTENSIFY INTO STRONGER STORMS. HOWEVER, WE'LL STILL NEED TO
KEEP AN EYE ON ANY THUNDERSTORMS THAT FORM THIS AFTERNOON WITHIN
THE UNSTABLE, HIGHLY SHEARED ENVIRONMENT. SPC CURRENTLY HAS
MUCH OF THE FORECAST AREA OUTLOOKED IN GENERAL THUNDER, AND AI
GUIDANCE IS ALSO DOWNPLAYING THE RISK FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS.
SHOWERS SHOULD START TO DEVELOP ALONG THE FRONT OVER THE NEXT
COUPLE OF HOURS BETWEEN I-81 AND US-15. THESE SHOWERS (AND
POTENTIALLY A STORM OR TWO) WILL DRIFT EASTWARD TOWARD THE I-95
CORRIDOR BETWEEN 4 AND 8 PM. ANOTHER AREA OF SHOWERS AND STORMS
MAY DEVELOP ACROSS CENTRAL VIRGINIA THIS EVENING AND TRACK
EAST- NORTHEASTWARD TOWARD THE FREDERICKSBURG AREA AND SOUTHERN
MARYLAND BETWEEN 8 PM AND MIDNIGHT. THE THREAT FOR THUNDERSTORMS
SHOULD COME TO AN END BY AROUND MIDNIGHT, BUT SHOWERS WILL
CONTINUE TO LINGER ON AND OFF BEHIND THE FRONT THROUGH MUCH OF
THE NIGHT.
KEY MESSAGE 2...MUCH COOLER AIR MOVES IN FOR THURSDAY AND FRIDAY, WITH
FROST AND/OR FREEZING TEMPERATURES POSSIBLE IN THE ALLEGHENIES
THURSDAY NIGHT.
NORTHWESTERLY FLOW BEHIND THE FRONT WILL ADVECT MUCH COOLER AIR
INTO THE REGION BY TOMORROW MORNING. AFTER STARTING OUT IN THE
UPPER 40S AND LOWER 50S, TEMPERATURES WILL CLIMB INTO THE 60S BY
PEAK HEATING TOMORROW AFTERNOON. MOST OF THE SHOWERS WILL HAVE
PRESSED OFF TO OUR SOUTH BY TOMORROW MORNING, BUT A STRAY SHOWER
OR TWO CAN'T BE RULED OUT THROUGHOUT THE DAY AS UPPER TROUGHING
AND AN EMBEDDED SHORTWAVE PASS THROUGH ALOFT. SKIES SHOULD CLEAR
OUT TOMORROW NIGHT AS THE UPPER TROUGH AXIS MOVES OFF TO OUR
EAST AND LARGE SCALE SUBSIDENCE STARTS TO BUILD OVERHEAD. MOST
OF THE FORECAST AREA WILL LIKELY MAINTAIN LIGHT NORTHWESTERLY
WINDS WITH A WEAK PRESSURE GRADIENT IN PLACE. HOWEVER, SHELTERED
MOUNTAIN VALLEYS IN THE ALLEGHENIES MAY GO CALM AS A SURFACE
RIDGE BUILDS OVERHEAD. FROST AND/OR FREEZING TEMPERATURES MAY BE
POSSIBLE IN THE ALLEGHENIES, ESPECIALLY IN SHELTERED VALLEYS
THAT DECOUPLE. OVERNIGHT LOW TEMPERATURES WILL BE IN THE 30S IN
THOSE LOCATIONS, WITH 40S ELSEWHERE. A MIX OF SUN AND CLOUDS IS
FORECAST FOR FRIDAY, WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 60S TO LOWER 70S
FOR MOST.
KEY MESSAGE 3...MILDER FOR THE WEEKEND WITH INCREASING RAIN
CHANCES.
HEIGHT RISES WILL COMMENCE ON SATURDAY AS A STUBBORN UPPER-LEVEL LOW
CHURNING NEAR JAMES BAY WEAKENS SLIGHTLY. AT THE SURFACE, A COLD
FRONT WILL APPROACH THE UPPER OHIO RIVER VALLEY WHILE WEAKENING.
HIGH PRESSURE OFFSHORE WILL RESULT IN MODEST RETURN FLOW AND MILDER
TEMPERATURES, WITH A FEW SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORM POSSIBLE SATURDAY.
BY SUNDAY, A SHORTWAVE WILL DIVE DOWN THE REAR FLANK OF THE TROUGH
TOWARD THE GREAT LAKES/MIDWEST. THIS WILL DRIVE A STRONGER COLD
FRONT FROM THE OHIO RIVER VALLEY TO THE EAST COAST. A SECONDARY WAVE
OF LOW PRESSURE IS LIKELY TO DEVELOP AS THE FRONT CROSSES THE MID-
ATLANTIC, THOUGH IT REMAINS TO BE SEEN IF THIS ENHANCES RAINFALL
LOCALLY OR CAUSES IT TO "SKIP" OVER THE REGION AS MANY SYSTEMS
HAVE DONE RECENTLY.
KEY MESSAGE 4...BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES RETURN EARLY NEXT
WEEK.
IN THE WAKE OF THE LATE WEEKEND FRONT, COOLER THAN NORMAL WEATHER IS
SET TO RETURN FOR THE FIRST HALF OF NEXT WEEK. RAIN CHANCES MAY
LINGER INTO MONDAY MORNING BEFORE DEPARTING AS A COLD FRONT SWINGS
OFFSHORE. WITH HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN FROM THE WEST MONDAY NIGHT
INTO TUESDAY, OVERNIGHT LOW TEMPERATURES COULD FEASIBLY DROP INTO
THE MID 30S RESULTING IN SOME FROST POTENTIAL FOR THE ALLEGHENIES
HEADING INTO EARLY TUESDAY MORNING.
AS THE HIGH DRIFTS OFFSHORE, THE THREAT OF A FEW POP UP SHOWERS OR
THUNDERSTORMS MAY RE-EMERGE BY THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.
AVIATION /18Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/
EARLIER RAIN HAS DEPARTED OFF TOWARD THE EAST, AND AN MVFR DECK
IS IN THE PROCESS OF SCATTERING OUT. VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
FOR ALL LATER THIS AFTERNOON. WINDS REMAIN GUSTY OUT OF THE
SOUTHWEST AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT, WITH GUSTS OF 20
TO 30 KNOTS COMMON ACROSS THE AREA. SHOWERS AND A FEW
THUNDERSTORMS WILL LIKELY FORM ALONG THE COLD FRONT LATER THIS
AFTERNOON AS IT SLOWLY DROPS SOUTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE AREA.
COVERAGE OF STORMS IS EXPECTED TO STAY LOW, SO THE TAFS ONLY
HAVE A PROB30 AT THE MOMENT. SHOWERS WILL LINGER BEHIND THE
FRONT OVERNIGHT AS WINDS SHIFT TO OUT OF THE NORTHWEST. CEILINGS
SHOULD REMAIN VFR AT MOST TERMINALS, BUT A PERIOD OF IFR
CEILINGS IS EXPECTED AT CHO LATER TONIGHT. CONDITIONS SHOULD
IMPROVE TO VFR AT CHO BY MID-MORNING TOMORROW. VFR CONDITIONS
AND LIGHT WINDS ARE EXPECTED FOR ALL TOMORROW AFTERNOON.
CONTINUED VFR CONDITIONS AND WESTERLY WINDS ARE FORECAST AT THE
TERMINALS FOR FRIDAY.
VFR LIKELY PREVAILS FOR MUCH OF THE UPCOMING WEEKEND, WITH THE
HIGHEST THREAT OF SUB-VFR CONDITIONS COMING LATE SUNDAY AS RAIN
CHANCES INCREASE IN ASSOCIATION WITH AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT.
WINDS LOOK SOUTHERLY 10 KTS OR LESS WITH OCCASIONAL GUSTS TO 15 KTS
DURING THE DAYLIGHT HOURS.
MARINE
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES REMAIN IN EFFECT THIS AFTERNOON WITHIN
SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW. A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE OVER THE WATERS THIS
EVENING, CAUSING WINDS TO TURN OUT OF THE NORTHWEST. SHOWERS AND
POTENTIALLY A FEW THUNDERSTORMS MAY ACCOMPANY THE FRONT. IF ANY
STRONGER STORMS ARE ABLE TO FORM, SMWS MAY BE POSSIBLE LATER
THIS EVENING. WINDS MAY BRIEFLY REACH LOW-END SCA LEVELS IN
NORTH TO NORTHWESTERLY FLOW OVERNIGHT. MOST OF THESE WINDS
OVERNIGHT WILL LIKELY BE BRIEF ENOUGH IN DURATION TO HANDLE WITH
MARINE WEATHER STATEMENTS, BUT A BRIEF SCA MAY BE NEEDED OVER
THE MAIN CHANNEL OF THE BAY.
SUB-SCA LEVEL NORTHERLY WINDS ARE EXPECTED OVER THE WATERS
TOMORROW. NORTH TO NORTHWESTERLY WINDS MAY BRIEFLY APPROACH
LOW-END SCA LEVELS AGAIN THURSDAY NIGHT. SUB-SCA LEVEL WESTERLY
WINDS ARE FORECAST FOR FRIDAY. WINDS TURN OUT OF THE SOUTH ON
FRIDAY NIGHT, AND COULD POTENTIALLY REACH LOW-END SCA LEVELS.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES MAY BE NEEDED IN SOUTHERLY FLOW THROUGH
SATURDAY AFTERNOON, AND AGAIN SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND SUNDAY EVENING.
RAIN CHANCES INCREASE PARTICULARLY LATE SUNDAY AS A COLD FRONT
APPROACHES FROM THE WEST.
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING
MODEST NORTHERLY FLOW WILL CAUSE WATER LEVELS TO DECREASE TONIGHT
THROUGH THURSDAY. SOME OF THE MORE AGGRESSIVE GUIDANCE BRINGS LOW
TIDE LEVELS TO NEAR ONE FOOT BELOW MLLW FOR THE UPPER CHESAPEAKE BAY
THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING, BUT SIGNIFICANT LOW WATER ISSUES
SEEM UNLIKELY GIVEN HOW LIGHT THE FLOW IS.
SOUTHERLY RETURN FLOW WILL CAUSE TIDE LEVELS TO RISE FRIDAY INTO THE
WEEKEND, WITH NEAR MINOR FLOODING POSSIBLE FOR VULNERABLE
SHORELINE.
LWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
DC...NONE.
MD...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR MDZ008.
VA...NONE.
WV...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR
ANZ530>543.
DISCUSSION...DHOF/KJP
AVIATION...DHOF/KJP
MARINE...DHOF/KJP
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...DHOF
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