000
FXUS61 KLWX 231929
AFDLWX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC
229 PM EST SUN NOV 23 2025
SYNOPSIS
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE MID-ATLANTIC THROUGH MONDAY AS
A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM APPROACHES FROM THE WEST. A WARM FRONT LIFTS
THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA ON TUESDAY AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT PUSHING
THROUGH WEDNESDAY. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE RETURNS FOR THE END OF THE
WEEK AND THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/
DRY CONDITIONS AND REDUCED CLOUD COVER CONTINUE THIS AFTERNOON
AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE REGION FROM THE WEST. A
DRY COLD FRONT CURRENTLY DRAPED OVER THE FORECAST AREA WILL DROP
SOUTH BRINGING A SURGE OF WINDS. A SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT IS
CURRENTLY IN EFFECT FOR THE WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE ALLEGHENIES
WHERE GUSTS 40 TO 45MPH ARE POSSIBLE. AT ISOLATED LOCATIONS
ALONG THE RIDGES, GUSTS AS HIGH AS 50MPH ARE POSSIBLE.
HIGH TEMPERATURES RISE INTO THE 50S AND 60S WITH THE ALLEGHENIES
STAYING IN THE 40S. OVERNIGHT LOW TEMPERATURES WILL BE IN 30S
FOR MOST WITH ONLY THOSE IN THE METRO AREAS STAYING IN THE LOW
40S.
SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVERHEAD ON MONDAY WITH DRY CONDITIONS,
MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES, AND LIGHT WINDS EXPECTED. UPPER LEVEL RIDGING
CENTERS TO THE NORTH, YIELDING A MILD WEATHER PATTERN FOR THE DAY.
HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE IN THE 50S FOR MOST WITH ISOLATED
LOCATIONS REACHING THE LOW 60S. OVERNIGHT LOW TEMPERATURES WILL BE
IN THE 30S AND 40S ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA.
CLOUD COVER INCREASES OVERNIGHT AND INTO TUESDAY AS AN AREA OF LOW
PRESSURE TRACKS NORTHEAST FROM THE SOUTHERN PLAINS TOWARDS THE
FORECAST AREA. THE ASSOCIATED WARM FRONT LIFTS NORTH THROUGH THE
REGION ON TUESDAY, BRINGING PRECIPITATION CHANCES AREAWIDE BEGINNING
TUESDAY MORNING AND PERSISTING THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT. HIGH
TEMPERATURES WILL BE SIMILAR TO MONDAY WITH HIGHS IN THE 50S FOR
MOST. ISOLATED LOCATIONS WILL RISE INTO THE LOW 60S WITH HIGHEST
ELEVATIONS STAYING IN THE UPPER 40S. IN THE WAKE OF THE WARM FRONT,
OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL BE ABOUT 10 DEGREES WARMER WHEN COMPARED TO THE
NIGHT PRIOR. OVERNIGHT LOW TEMPERATURES WILL BE IN THE 40S TO
LOW 50S ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA.
LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/
MAIN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL BE CUTTING ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES
WEDNESDAY WITH ENSEMBLE AND DETERMINISTIC GUIDANCE STILL HINTING AT
A SECONDARY AND WEAKER AREA OF LOW PRESSURE MOVING OVER THE LOCAL
AREA. RAIN CHANCES CONTINGENT ON FRONTAL POSITIONS AND EXACT LOW
TRACK, BUT A WETTING RAIN IS LIKELY FOR MOST LOCALES (AT LEAST A
TENTH OF AN INCH). PROBS BEYOND THAT ARE LOW. GIVEN BEING IN THE
WARM SECTOR WITH SOUTHERLY FLOW, THERE WILL BE AMPLE MOISTURE TO
WORK WITH AND SOME INSTABILITY. THEREFORE, CANNOT RULE OUT A
THUNDERSTORM ESPECIALLY GIVEN THE MODEST SHEAR. HIGHS WEDNESDAY WILL
BE IN THE 60S TO LOW 70S, AND THE WARMEST OF THE ENTIRE FORECAST
PERIOD.
POTENT UL TROUGH WILL ROTATE THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES WEDNESDAY AND
MOVE EASTWARD THROUGH THE REST OF THE LONG TERM. THIS WILL BRING A
SIGNIFICANT PATTERN CHANGE FOR THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND WITH AN
ANOMALOUSLY COLD AIRMASS. GIVEN THE WIND TRAJECTORIES BEING MORE
WESTERLY, NOT EXPECTING MUCH IN TERMS OF UPSLOPE SNOW TO END THE
WEEK. GUSTY WINDS WILL BE THE MAIN THREAT ALONG WITH COOLER
TEMPERATURES. HIGHS WILL LIKELY REMAIN IN THE 40S FOR MOST, AND
BELOW FREEZING IN THE ALLEGHENIES. ALL AREAS WILL LIKELY DROP BELOW
FREEZING THURSDAY NIGHT, WITH TEENS IN THE ALLEGHENIES.
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE AREA FRIDAY AND
SATURDAY. PRECIPITATION CHANCES ARE SLIM, BUT THE JET STREAM
OVERHEAD AND SOME WARM/MOIST ADVECTION ALOFT MAY RESULT IN
INCREASED CLOUD COVER. BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE.
AVIATION /18Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH
MONDAY. GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS BLOWING 10 TO 20 KNOTS THIS
AFTERNOON DIMINISH OVERNIGHT WITH LIGHT SOUTHERLY WINDS EXPECTED
TOMORROW. WINDS REMAIN LIGHT THROUGH MONDAY EVENING BEFORE
SLOWLY INCREASING ON TUESDAY, WITH GUSTS REACHING 15 - 20 KNOTS
IN THE AFTERNOON. ADDITIONALLY, PRECIPITATION CHANCES INCREASE
ON TUESDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE SHIFTS OFFSHORE AND SOUTHERLY FLOW
BRINGS INCREASED MOISTURE. RAIN WILL LIKELY BRING FLIGHT
RESTRICTIONS TO MVFR THROUGH REDUCED VISIBILITIES AND CEILINGS.
SUB-VFR CEILINGS AND SHOWERS REMAIN POSSIBLE WEDNESDAY AS A COLD
FRONT CROSS THE AREA. GUSTY WEST WINDS WILL FOLLOW THE FRONTAL
PASSAGE, WITH SOME GUSTS OF 20-30 KT POSSIBLE THURSDAY.
MARINE
A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY GOES INTO EFFECT TONIGHT FOR NORTHWEST
WINDS GUSTING UP TO 20 KNOTS. WINDS SHIFT TO SOUTHERLY TOMORROW
AND DIMINISH BELOW SCA CRITERIA AS HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES OVER
THE WATERS. A WARM FRONT APPROACHING THE WATERS WILL LEAD TO
RAIN AND INCREASED WINDS WITH ADDITIONAL SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES
POSSIBLE TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND INTO THE EVENING.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED LATE WEDNESDAY
THROUGH THURSDAY AS GUSTY WEST WINDS DEVELOP IN THE WAKE OF A
COLD FRONT.
LWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
DC...NONE.
MD...NONE.
VA...NONE.
WV...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 11 PM THIS EVENING TO 6 AM EST
MONDAY FOR ANZ531>534-537-539>541-543.
SYNOPSIS...AVS
NEAR TERM...AVS
SHORT TERM...AVS
LONG TERM...CPB
AVIATION...AVS/CPB
MARINE...AVS/CPB
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