624
FXUS61 KLWX 100134
AFDLWX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC
834 PM EST MON FEB 9 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
NOTHING HAS CHANGED. PREVIOUS FORECAST REMAINS ON TRACK.
KEY MESSAGES
- 1) A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL HALT THE EARLY-WEEK WARMING TREND,
WITH A RETURN TO COLDER THAN NORMAL WEATHER DURING THE SECOND
HALF OF THE WEEK.
- 2) AN IMPACTFUL STORM SYSTEM LIKELY IMPACTS THE MID-ATLANTIC
LATER THIS WEEKEND, BUT THE DETAILS REMAIN HIGHLY UNCERTAIN.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1...A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL HALT THE EARLY-WEEK WARMING
TREND, WITH A RETURN TO COLDER THAN NORMAL WEATHER DURING THE
SECOND HALF OF THE WEEK.
CLOUDS WILL INCREASE STEADILY TONIGHT AHEAD OF LOW PRESSURE
TRACKING JUST NORTH OF THE GREAT LAKES. THE WARM FRONT
ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SYSTEM WILL APPROACH TUESDAY MORNING, THEN
ATTEMPT TO LIFT ACROSS THE MID-ATLANTIC THROUGH TUESDAY EVENING.
WITH A STEEP TEMPERATURE INVERSION IN THE LOWEST FEW THOUSAND
FEET AND GENERALLY LIGHT WINDS OF 8-12 KNOTS IN THE BOUNDARY
LAYER, THE WARM FRONT MAY STRUGGLE TO LIFT NORTHWARD. THE FRONT
MAY STILL MANAGE TO LIFT ALL THE WAY THROUGH THE AREA BY EVENING
GIVEN SOME THINNING IN CLOUD COVER WHICH COULD HELP IT MIX OUT.
TEMPS MAY APPROACH 60 WHERE THE WARM FRONT PASSES (VALLEYS OF
EASTERN WV, CENTRAL SHENANDOAH VALLEY, CENTRAL VA PIEDMONT), BUT
COULD STAY STUCK IN THE 30S WHERE IT CROSSES LATE IN THE DAY OR
NOT AT ALL (NORTHEASTERN MD).
DUE TO A LOT OF DRY AIR AHEAD OF THE WARM FRONT AND SOUTHWEST
LOW-LEVEL FLOW, AREAS EAST OF THE MOUNTAINS LIKELY DON'T SEE
ANY PRECIP WITH THE WARM FRONT. ALONG AND WEST OF THE ALLEGHENY
FRONT, THERE MAY BE JUST ENOUGH MOISTURE AND LIFT TO SQUEEZE OUT
A COUPLE OF SPRINKLES OR (RAIN) SHOWERS.
BY MID TO LATE TUESDAY AFTERNOON, A TRAILING COLD FRONT WILL
BEGIN TO OVERTAKE THE REGION FROM THE WEST AND NORTHWEST. THIS
STRENGTHENING FRONT HAS MID/UPPER SUPPORT, BUT MOISTURE WILL
STILL BE LACKING. DURING AND PARTICULARLY IN THE WAKE OF FRONTAL
PASSAGE, SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWER ACTIVITY MAY DEVELOP ALONG
AND WEST OF THE ALLEGHENY FRONT. FROUDE NUMBERS NEAR 1 INDICATE
THE POTENTIAL FOR MINIMAL SPILLOVER. TEMPS WILL BE WARM ENOUGH
TO SUPPORT RAIN AT FIRST, WITH A MIX WITH AND CHANGE TO SNOW
ANTICIPATED BY MID TO LATE EVENING. BY WEDNESDAY AND INTO
WEDNESDAY NIGHT, TEMPS DROP FURTHER RESULTING IN A DEEPENING DGZ
WHICH OVERLAPS A COUPLE THOUSAND FEET OF SATURATION AND CAPE.
FROUDE NUMBERS ALSO INCREASE WEDNESDAY INDICATING A BIT MORE
POTENTIAL FOR SPILLOVER INTO THE FOOTHILLS JUST EAST OF THE
APPALACHIAN CREST. THE MOISTURE WILL BE SHALLOW AND THE SOURCE
REGION (LAKE ERIE) IS FROZEN OVER. THEREFORE, QPF AND SNOW
AMOUNTS LOOK LIGHT - A COATING TO AN INCH, PERHAPS 1 TO 3 INCHES
IF SNOW SHOWERS ARE A LITTLE HEAVIER OR MORE PERSISTENT (WITH
THE HIGHEST ACCUMULATION FOCUSED ABOVE 3000 FEET GIVEN INITIALLY
MARGINAL TEMPS).
TO THE EAST, THERE MAY BE JUST ENOUGH MOISTURE TO RESULT IN A
FEW SHOWERS TUESDAY EVENING. HI-RES GUIDANCE SUPPORTS THIS WITH
WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS. THE LATEST FORECAST PACKAGE RAISED
POPS TO JUST SHY OF "MENTIONABLE" SLIGHT CHANCE/ISOLATED
THRESHOLDS OF 15%. THIS MAY NEED TO BE TWEAKED UPWARD IN LATER
CYCLES IF ENOUGH MOISTURE IS PRESENT ALONG THE FRONT. PRECIP
TYPE WILL BE RAIN GIVEN MILDER TEMPS, EXCEPT PERHAPS IN FAR
NORTHERN/NORTHEASTERN MD WHERE IT MAY STRUGGLE TO RISE MUCH
ABOVE FREEZING.
BLUSTERY NORTHWEST WINDS WILL USHER IN ANOTHER BOUT OF COLD AIR
IN THE WAKE OF THIS SYSTEM. ALTHOUGH NOT NEARLY AS COLD AS
RECENT BOUTS OF ARCTIC INTRUSIONS, IT WILL STILL BE BELOW
NORMAL AND PUT A STOP ON ANY MELTING OF THE SNOW/ICE PACK. THIS
COLDER THAN NORMAL AIR WILL BEGIN TO GRADUALLY ERODE HEADING
INTO THIS WEEKEND AHEAD OF THE NEXT STORM SYSTEM. THE DEPTH AND
SPEED OF RETREAT OF THIS COLD AIR WILL BE CRUCIAL IN DETERMINING
PRECIPITATION TYPES AND AMOUNTS LATER THIS WEEKEND.
KEY MESSAGE 2...AN IMPACTFUL STORM SYSTEM LIKELY IMPACTS THE
MID-ATLANTIC LATER THIS WEEKEND, BUT THE DETAILS REMAIN HIGHLY
UNCERTAIN.
MODEL GUIDANCE IS GENERALLY STARTING TO SHOW AGREEMENT ON A
WINTER STORM THIS WEEKEND. MODELS HAVE A LOW IN THE OHIO VALLEY
MOVING THROUGH THE APPS AND NEAR THE EAST COAST. HOWEVER,
MODELS STILL DIVERGE QUITE A BIT ON HOW FAR NORTH OR SOUTH THIS
LOW WILL TRACK, AND HOW QUICKLY IT WILL BEGIN TO IMPACT THE
REGION. BOTH OF THESE FACTORS ARE CRITICAL FOR UNDERSTANDING THE
TYPE OF PRECIPITATION TO BE EXPECTED FROM THIS EVENT AS WELL AS
THE OVERALL MAGNITUDE OF IT. TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO
OSCILLATE FROM THE LOW 20S AT NIGHT TO 40S DURING THE DAY.
DEPENDING ON WHEN THE LOW TRACKS THROUGH THE MID- ATLANTIC, WE
COULD SEE A MIX OF RAIN/FREEZING RAIN, SLEET, AND/OR SOME SNOW
THROUGHOUT THE CWA.
AVIATION /01Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/
HIGH CLOUDS ARE DEPARTING. OTHERWISE, VFR CONDITIONS CONTINUE
ACROSS ALL TERMINALS THROUGH TUESDAY AS A WARM FRONT LIFTS
NORTHEASTWARD THROUGH THE AREA. VFR CLOUD COVER WILL INCREASE
ACROSS THE TERMINALS, AND LLWS IS POSSIBLE TUESDAY EVENING
ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE METRO TAF SITES AS A LLJ STRENGTHENS WITH
WARM FROPA. VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE ACROSS THE
TERMINALS AS MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS PERSIST THROUGH WEDNESDAY
(THOUGH A BRIEF SHOWER CAN'T BE RULED OUT TUESDAY EVENING AS A
TRAILING COLD FRONT CROSSES). WINDS SHIFT TO SOUTHERLY TUESDAY,
THEN WESTERLY TUESDAY NIGHT, BEFORE BECOMING NORTHWESTERLY IN
THE WAKE OF A COLD FRONT WEDNESDAY. BLUSTERY CONDITIONS ARE
POSSIBLE IN THE WAKE OF THE COLD FRONT WITH GUSTS OF 20-30 KTS
POSSIBLE.
10 KNOT NORTHWESTERLY WINDS FOR MUCH OF THE DAY THURSDAY AT
TERMINALS, WITH GUSTS UP TO 20 KNOTS POSSIBLE; LIGHTER WINDS ARE
EXPECTED FRIDAY AND GOING INTO THE WEEKEND. CLOUD PRESENCE AT
TERMINALS WILL BE INTERMITTENT BETWEEN THURSDAY-SATURDAY DUE TO A
COUPLE OF SHORTWAVE TROUGH EVENTS TO THE NORTH AND SOUTH, BUT VSBYS
SHOULD STILL PRIMARILY BE VFR.
MARINE
NORTHWEST WINDS REMAIN BELOW SCA CRITERIA THROUGH TUESDAY
MORNING. WINDS SHIFT TO SOUTHERLY ON TUESDAY AS A WARM FRONT
LIFTS ACROSS THE WATERS AND ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN BELOW SCA
CRITERIA THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT DUE MOSTLY TO THE FACT THAT
MILDER AIR WILL BE MOVING ACROSS COLDER/FROZEN WATER (INDUCING
LOW-LEVEL STABILITY AND INHIBITING MIXING). IN THE WAKE OF A
TRAILING COLD FRONT, WINDS SHIFT TO NORTHWESTERLY ON WEDNESDAY
WITH SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES LIKELY NEEDED.
THURSDAY'S OUTLOOK SHOWS 15-20 KNOT SUSTAINED NORTHWEST WINDS, WITH
GUSTS BETWEEN 20-25 KNOTS. SCAS STILL LIKELY ON THURSDAY, BUT WINDS
SHOULD DROP TO 10 KNOTS BY FRIDAY. BORDERLINE GUSTS (18 KNOTS) ARE
STILL SHOWING A POTENTIAL FOR SCAS IN THE SOUTHERN CHESAPEAKE BAY ON
FRIDAY. WINDS WILL LIKELY FURTHER DECREASE INTO THE WEEKEND, AS A
COASTAL PRESSURE GRADIENT MOVES FURTHER NORTH. UNCERTAINTY IS
HIGH THIS WEEKEND, HOWEVER.
LWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
DC...NONE.
MD...NONE.
VA...NONE.
WV...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
DISCUSSION...DHOF/CPB
AVIATION...DHOF/CPB
MARINE...DHOF/CPB
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