526
FXUS61 KLWX 150650
AFDLWX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC
250 AM EDT FRI MAY 15 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
NO MAJOR CHANGES TO THE CURRENT FORECAST PACKAGE. STILL BREEZY TODAY
WITH MORE SUNSHINE. WARMING UP THIS WEEKEND WITH SUMMERTIME HEAT AND
THUNDERSTORM CHANCES EARLY TO MID NEXT WEEK.
KEY MESSAGES
1) ABOVE AVERAGE TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED BEGINNING THIS WEEKEND
ALONG WITH DAILY SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES THROUGH THE MIDDLE
OF NEXT WEEK.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1...ABOVE AVERAGE TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED BEGINNING
THIS WEEKEND ALONG WITH DAILY SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES
THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.
ONE MORE SPRING-LIKE DAY TODAY BEFORE SUMMERTIME HEAT SETTLES IN
THIS WEEKEND INTO THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE
WILL PUSH OFFSHORE TODAY AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE OHIO
RIVER VALLEY. WITH THAT SAID, EXPECT MORE SUNSHINE MIXED IN WITH MID
AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUD COVER. BREEZY CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN FOR THE
FRONT HALF OF THE DAY GIVEN THE GRADIENT BETWEEN THE DEPARTING LOW
AND INCOMING HIGH. EXPECT GUSTS BETWEEN 20 TO 25 MPH GRADUALLY
DIMINISHING DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING HOURS. HIGHS
TODAY WILL PUSH INTO THE UPPER 60S AND LOW 70S AS A RESULT OF MORE
SUNSHINE. WINDS GO CALM TONIGHT WITH CLEAR SKIES ALLOWING TEMPS TO
FALL BACK INTO THE 40S AND LOW 50S.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL DRIFT OFFSHORE SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY ALLOWING FOR
PERSISTENT RETURN FLOW INTO THE REGION. MEANWHILE, HEIGHTS WILL
RISE AS BROAD HIGH PRESSURE STRENGTHENS OFFSHORE. AT THE SAME TIME,
THE UPPER LEVEL FLOW PATTERN BECOMES MUCH MORE ZONAL ALLOWING A
FRONT TO TRY AND DROP SOUTH INTO THE REGION. THE STATIONARY FRONT
OVER THE OHIO RIVER VALLEY AND EASTERN GREAT LAKES WILL ACT AS A
CATALYST FOR MULTIPLE PIECES OF UPPER LEVEL ENERGY TO PIVOT THROUGH.
THESE PIECES OF ENERGY COULD HELP INITIATE A FEW SPOTTY SHOWERS OR T-
STORMS MAINLY ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS ON BOTH SATURDAY AND SUNDAY
AFTERNOONS. OVERALL MOST OF THE WEEKEND WILL REMAIN DRY WITH HIGHS
FOR MOST SATURDAY IN THE 80S AND PUSHING 90 SUNDAY.
UPPER LEVEL RIDGING AND RETURN FLOW WILL CONTINUE TO STRENGTHEN AT
THE START OF NEW WORKWEEK PUSHING HIGHS WELL INTO THE 90S MONDAY AND
TUESDAY. HUMIDITY WILL ALSO INCREASE DURING THIS TIME WITH THE
POTENTIAL FOR HEAT HEADLINES, ESPECIALLY DURING THE TUESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY TIMEFRAME. CONVECTIVE CHANCES WILL CONTINUE OVER THE
MOUNTAINS WITH MORE WIDESPREAD SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORMS CHANCES
LIKELY WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY AS A COLD FRONT PUSHES THROUGH.
A COLD FRONT WILL TRY TO MAKE ITS WAY THROUGH THE REGION WEDNESDAY
INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT BRINGING US A HIGHER CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS. THIS ACTIVITY WILL LIKELY FEED OFF OF THE HIGHER
HUMIDITY AND HEAT. THE FRONT COULD MAKE IT THROUGH AND PUSH TO OUR
SOUTH EARLY THURSDAY, BUT HAS THE POTENTIAL TO RETREAT NORTHWARD AS
A WARM FRONT THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND NIGHT. TEMPERATURES WILL LIKELY
COOL DUE TO EXTRA CLOUD COVER AND ADDITIONAL SHOWER/T-STORM CHANCES
ACROSS THE REGION. THE FRONT MAY REMAIN NEARBY THROUGH FRIDAY BEFORE
CLEARING THE AREA FOR THE UPCOMING WEEKEND AS CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS SOUTH FROM THE GREAT LAKES REGION.
AVIATION /06Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT
WEEK. EXPECT POCKETS OF MID AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUD COVER TO CONTINUE
THROUGH THIS EVENING BEFORE SKC CONDITIONS RETURN LATE TONIGHT INTO
EARLY SATURDAY MORNING. NORTHWEST WINDS WILL REMAIN GUSTY AROUND 20
KTS BEFORE DIMINISHING THIS AFTERNOON AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN
FROM THE OHIO RIVER VALLEY. WINDS WILL GO CALM TO VARIABLE OVERNIGHT
AS THE HIGH SETTLES NEARBY. HIGH PRESSURE DRIFTS OFFSHORE SATURDAY
INTO SUNDAY ALLOWING WINDS TO SWITCH BACK TO THE SOUTH AND SOUTHWEST
AT LESS THAN 15 KTS. VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL WITH A SHOWER OR T-
STORM POSSIBLY APPROACHING KMRB, KHGR, AND KFDK LATE SATURDAY
EVENING AFTER 23Z/7PM. CONFIDENCE IN THIS IS VERY LOW GIVEN RESIDUAL
DRY AIR ALOFT.
PRIMARILY VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED AT TERMINALS ON SUNDAY AND
MONDAY. AN ISOLATED TSTORM COULD AFFECT THE NORTHERN TERMINALS
SUNDAY (I.E MRB, HGR, FDK, IAD, BWI) THAT COULD CAUSE TEMPORARY
REDUCED CONDITIONS AT TERMINALS. WINDS BRIEFLY SHIFT WESTERLY SUNDAY
AFTERNOON BEFORE SHIFTING SOUTH SOUTHEAST ON MONDAY. ADDITIONAL
SPOTTY T-STORM CHANCES ARE POSSIBLE TUESDAY MAINLY AT MOUNTAIN
TERMINALS. MORE WIDESPREAD SUB-VFR CONDITIONS ARE LIKELY WEDNESDAY
AND THURSDAY AS A COLD FRONT PUSHES THROUGH.
MARINE
SCAS CONTINUE FOR ALL WATERS THROUGH 3PM THIS AFTERNOON, ALTHOUGH
UNCERTAINTY REMAINS ON HOW QUICKLY WINDS RELAX. SUB-SCA LEVEL WINDS
RETURN TONIGHT INTO SATURDAY MORNING AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS NEARBY.
WINDS WILL BECOME VARIABLE TONIGHT BEFORE TURNING TO THE SOUTH
SATURDAY. OCCASIONAL SCA CONDITIONS WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS PORTIONS
OF THE WATERS DUE TO SOUTH TO SOUTHWESTERLY CHANNELING SATURDAY.
WINDS DROP BACK BELOW SCA LEVELS SUNDAY INTO MONDAY, ALTHOUGH
OCCASIONAL GUSTS UP TO SCA LEVEL ARE POSSIBLE IN CHANNELING
OVER THE OPEN WATERS DURING THIS AFOREMENTIONED TIME.
SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS GRADUALLY BECOME SOUTHEASTERLY MONDAY
NIGHT.
NO MARINE HAZARDS EXPECTED TUESDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT.
WINDS SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST 5 TO 10 KNOTS THROUGH THE PERIOD.
LWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
DC...NONE.
MD...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 PM EDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR MDZ008.
VA...NONE.
WV...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 PM EDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR
ANZ530>543.
DISCUSSION...EST
AVIATION...KLW/EST
MARINE...KLW/EST
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