934  
FXUS61 KLWX 200131  
AFDLWX  
 
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION  
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC  
931 PM EDT SUN OCT 19 2025  
   
SYNOPSIS
 
 
A POTENT COLD FRONT APPROACHES THE FORECAST AREA THIS AFTERNOON  
BEFORE MOVING THROUGH TONIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE BRIEFLY BUILDS  
OVERHEAD MONDAY AHEAD OF ANOTHER COLD FRONT FORECAST TO MOVE  
THROUGH TUESDAY.  
 

 
   
NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM MONDAY MORNING/
 
 
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AXIS IS TAKING A NEGATIVE TILT ACROSS THE  
OHIO VALLEY. HOWEVER, MAIN CONVECTIVE LINE IS IN A PREFRONTAL  
TROUGH WHERE SHEAR IS MORE PARALLEL TO THE BOUNDARY. THUS SEEING  
SOME OCCASIONAL ENHANCEMENTS OF NORTHEASTWARD MOVING ELEMENTS,  
BUT THE EASTWARD MOVING LINE HAS BEEN LOOKING MORE RAGGED ON  
RADAR, AND RECENT WIND GUSTS HAVE GENERALLY BEEN 30 MPH OR LESS.  
IT APPEARS AS THOUGH A NEW CONVERGENCE ZONE IS DEVELOPING AHEAD  
OF THE OLD ONE, SO THERE IS STILL SOME POTENTIAL THE LINE  
REINVIGORATES AS IT ENCOUNTERS GREATER MOISTURE CONTENT ALONG  
THE I-95 CORRIDOR. INSTABILITY IS NEGLIGIBLE, SO ANY THREAT OF  
DAMAGING GUSTS OR EVEN A BRIEF QLCS-TYPE TORNADO WOULD HAVE TO  
BE HEAVILY RELIANT ON THE STRONG LOW LEVEL WIND FIELDS. A  
MARGINAL RISK FROM SPC REMAINS IN PLACES. RADAR EXTRAPOLATION  
SUGGESTS THE CONVECTIVE THREAT WILL BE EAST OF THE FORECAST AREA  
BY MIDNIGHT OR SHORTLY THEREAFTER. HOWEVER, SOME SHOWERS WILL  
LINGER BEHIND THE MAIN LINE. IN PARTICULAR, RAIN SHOULD CONTINUE  
ALONG THE ALLEGHENY FRONT UNTIL DAYBREAK, WITH WIDESPREAD  
SHOWERS APPROACHING FROM THE OHIO VALLEY AHEAD OF THE TROUGH  
AXIS/COLD FRONT.  
 
ADDITIONALLY, A WIND ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR WESTERN  
GRANT, WESTERN PENDLETON, AND WESTERN HIGHLAND COUNTIES  
THROUGH 8 AM MONDAY. DECENT AGREEMENT IN GUIDANCE AND  
CORRESPONDING PROBABILITIES TO JUSTIFY AN ADVISORY. H85 WINDS  
ALSO IN THE 50-60 KT RANGE OVERNIGHT TONIGHT, WITH THE STRONGEST  
WINDS LIKELY IN THE IMMEDIATE WAKE OF THE FRONT.  
 
OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL BE IN THE 30S AND 40S FOR THOSE WEST OF THE  
BLUE RIDGE AND 40S AND 50S FOR THOSE EAST OF THE BLUE RIDGE.  
 

 
   
SHORT TERM /6 AM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/
 
 
PRECIPITATION CHANCES LINGER MONDAY MORNING AS THE COLD FRONT  
DEPARTS OFFSHORE. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN OVERHEAD FROM  
THE SOUTH WITH DECREASING CLOUDS AND DRY CONDITIONS EXPECTED  
MONDAY AFTERNOON. GUSTY WINDS CONTINUE MONDAY MORNING WITH  
NORTHWEST WINDS GUSTING 20 TO 30 KNOTS (30+ ALLEGHENIES). WINDS  
BEGIN DIMINISHING SLIGHTLY THROUGHOUT THE DAY WITH LIGHT WINDS  
EXPECTED OVERNIGHT INTO TUESDAY. IN THE WAKE OF THE COLD FRONT,  
TEMPERATURES WILL BE 10-15 DEGREES COOLER COMPARED TO THE DAY  
PRIOR. HIGHS WILL BE IN THE 50S AND 60S WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS IN  
THE 30S AND 40S.  
 
ANOTHER COLD FRONT APPROACHES AND MOVES THROUGH THE FORECAST  
AREA ON TUESDAY. LITTLE TO NO PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED WITH  
THIS FRONTAL PASSAGE DUE TO LIMITED MOISTURE ALOFT. THAT BEING  
SAID, THERE IS A CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION IN THE NORTHERN HALF OF  
THE FORECAST AREA TUESDAY NIGHT BEHIND THE FRONT. SOUTHERLY  
FLOW ON TUESDAY WILL YIELD TEMPERATURES IN THE 60S AND 70S WITH  
HIGHER ELEVATIONS IN THE 50S. OVERNIGHT LOW TEMPERATURES WILL  
BE IN THE 40S AND 50S FOR MOST.  
 

 
   
LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/
 
 
FOLLOWING A STRONG FRONTAL PASSAGE LATE TUE NIGHT/EARLY WED, BROAD  
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH ANCHORED ON A CLOSED LOW NORTH OF THE GREAT LKS  
WILL ESTABLISH ACROSS THE NORTHEAST AND MID-ATLANTIC STATES THROUGH  
THE END OF THE WEEK. BRISK W TO NW FLOW WILL REMAIN OVER THE AREA  
ASSOCIATED WITH LOW PRESSURE NORTH OF THE GREAT LKS WITH MOUNTAIN  
RAIN SHOWERS. BY THE END OF THE WEEK, UPPER TROUGH BEGINS TO LIFT  
OUT WHILE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS CLOSER TO THE AREA RESULTING IN  
LIGHTER WINDS. IN GENERAL, EXPECT GENERALLY COOLER THAN NORMAL  
TEMPERATURES ALONG WITH BRISK CONDITIONS AND MOUNTAIN RAIN SHOWERS.  
 

 
   
AVIATION /01Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/
 
 
CONVECTIVE LINE IS PUSHING EAST THROUGH THE METRO TERMINALS THIS  
EVENING. EVEN THOUGH THE LINE HAD BECOME MORE RAGGED BY 9 PM,  
STILL SEEING SOME BRIEF MODERATE TO HEAVY RAIN WITH IFR VSBY.  
SOME POTENTIAL THE LINE RESTRENGTHENS TOWARD DCA/BWI, BUT THE 35  
KT GUSTS IN THE 00Z TAFS MAY STILL BE A BIT OVERDONE. WIND  
SHIFT TO THE WEST MAY BE BRIEF, WITH A CONTINUATION OF  
SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS UNTIL THE PRIMARY FRONT ARRIVES TOWARD  
DAYBREAK. SOME LIGHT SHOWERS MAY LINGER FOR A FEW HOURS BEHIND  
THE MAIN LINE, BUT DON'T APPEAR TO REDUCE VSBY SUBSTANTIALLY.  
ANOTHER ROUND OF SHOWERS COULD SKIRT MRB LATE TONIGHT AHEAD OF  
THE FRONT, BUT CONFIDENCE IS LOW THIS WOULD CAUSE MUCH OF AN  
ISSUE.  
 
THE WIND SHIFT TO THE WEST WILL BE ACCOMPANIED BY A QUICK  
INCREASE IN SPEEDS AFTER SUNRISE, WITH SOME GUSTS IN THE 30 KT  
RANGE POSSIBLE. CLOUD COVER DECREASES THROUGHOUT THE DAY, ALONG  
WITH WIND GUSTS OF 20-25 KT MORE COMMON BY THE AFTERNOON. WINDS  
BECOME LIGHT OVERNIGHT MONDAY INTO TUESDAY. VFR CONDITIONS  
CONTINUE TUESDAY WITH DRY CONDITIONS EXPECTED. WINDS SHIFT TO  
SOUTHERLY, GUSTING 15 TO 20 KNOTS IN THE AFTERNOON.  
 
BRISK W WEST WINDS GUSTING 25-30 KT DURING THE DAY WED, DIMINISHING  
SOMEWHAT THU. BROKEN CEILINGS AROUND 040-050 DURING THE DAY WITH  
LIGHTER WINDS AT NIGHT.  
 

 
   
MARINE
 
 
SOUTHERLY WINDS GUSTING 20-30 KT CONTINUE THIS EVENING. A  
CONVECTIVE LINE OF SHOWERS IS APPROACHING. IT HAS BECOME A BIT  
WEAKER, BUT STILL CAN'T RULE OUT SOME 35+ KT GUSTS IN ANY  
SEGMENTS THAT RESTRENGTHEN. THIS LINE WILL HAVE A WIND SHIFT TO  
THE WEST, BUT THEN WINDS MAY BE SOMEWHAT SOUTHWESTERLY UNTIL THE  
PRIMARY COLD FRONT ARRIVES LATE TONIGHT. A SURGE BEHIND THE  
FRONT COULD RESULT IN A FEW GUSTS APPROACHING GALE FORCE FOR A  
FEW HOURS AROUND SUNRISE TO MID MORNING. OTHERWISE ADVISORY  
CONDITIONS IN WESTERLY FLOW CONTINUE THROUGH THE DAY. WINDS  
SHOULD SUBSIDE WITH SUNSET MONDAY EVENING.  
 
ANOTHER COLD FRONT APPROACHES TUESDAY WITH WINDS SHIFTING TO  
SOUTHERLY IN THE MORNING. ADDITIONAL SCAS WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED  
ON TUESDAY.  
 
SCA CONDITIONS EXPECTED WEDNESDAY WITH LIGHTER WINDS THU, WHICH MAY  
STILL BE AT SCA LEVELS.  
 

 
   
FIRE WEATHER
 
 
DESPITE GUSTY WINDS AND MUCH DRIER AIR MASS ARRIVING DURING THE  
MIDDLE AND SECOND HALF OF THE WEEK, MUCH COOLER TEMPERATURES AND  
CLOUD COVER DURING THE DAY SHOULD PREVENT CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER  
CONDITIONS.  
 

 
   
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING
 
 
ANOMALIES OF 1.5 TO 2.0 FT ARE BEING CURRENTLY OBSERVED IN SOUTHERLY  
WINDS. THE HIGH TIDE TONIGHT WILL BE SIGNIFICANTLY LOWER.  
HOWEVER, WATER LEVELS TONIGHT MAY NOT BE ABLE TO RECEDE LOW  
ENOUGH TO PREVENT ANOTHER CYCLE OF COASTAL FLOODING. AN  
EXTENSION MAY BE REQUIRED FOR HAVRE DE GRACE, BUT OTHER  
ADVISORIES LOOK TO BE IN GOOD SHAPE OR MAY BE ABLE TO BE  
CANCELLED EARLY. WATER LEVELS SHOULD DROP BELOW MINOR COASTAL  
FLOODING DURING THE DAY MONDAY AS GUSTY W FLOW DEVELOPS.  
 

 
   
LWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
 
 
DC...COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY UNTIL 10 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR DCZ001.  
MD...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EDT MONDAY FOR MDZ008.  
COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT EDT TONIGHT FOR MDZ011.  
COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM EDT MONDAY FOR MDZ014.  
COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY UNTIL 4 AM EDT MONDAY FOR MDZ016.  
COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY UNTIL 3 AM EDT MONDAY FOR MDZ017.  
COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY UNTIL 5 AM EDT MONDAY FOR MDZ018-508.  
VA...COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY UNTIL 10 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR VAZ054.  
COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY UNTIL 4 AM EDT MONDAY FOR VAZ057.  
WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM EDT MONDAY FOR VAZ503.  
WV...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM EDT MONDAY FOR WVZ501-505.  
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EDT MONDAY FOR ANZ530>543.  
 

 
 

 
 
SYNOPSIS...CPB  
NEAR TERM...ADS/CPB  
SHORT TERM...AVS/CPB  
LONG TERM...LFR  
AVIATION...ADS/LFR/CPB  
MARINE...ADS/LFR/CPB  
FIRE WEATHER...LFR  
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...LFR/ADS  
 
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