910
FXUS61 KLWX 040739 AAA
AFDLWX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC
339 AM EDT SAT APR 4 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR LATE THIS AFTERNOON
THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING.
KEY MESSAGES
1) NEAR RECORD TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TODAY.
2) A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH ON SUNDAY, BRINGING
RAINFALL AND PERHAPS A CHANCE FOR A THUNDERSTORM. MUCH COOLER
AIR MOVES IN BEHIND THE FRONT ON MONDAY.
3) COOLER TEMPERATURES EXPECTED NEXT WEEK ALONG WITH
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING OVER THE MID-ATLANTIC BY MIDWEEK.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1...NEAR RECORD TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TODAY.
UPPER TROUGHING WILL BUILD OVER THE UPPER MIDWEST, WHILE AN
ASSOCIATED AREA OF LOW PRESSURE TRACKS INTO THE GREAT LAKES.
SOUTHERLY FLOW OUT AHEAD OF THIS AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL
ADVECT A VERY WARM AIRMASS INTO THE REGION. WITH AMPLE SUNSHINE
EXPECTED, TEMPERATURES WILL SOAR INTO THE MID TO POTENTIALLY
EVEN UPPER 80S AT LOWER ELEVATIONS. MOUNTAINS LOCATIONS WILL
MAKE IT WELL INTO THE 70S. THESE TEMPERATURES WILL CHALLENGE OR
POTENTIALLY EVEN BREAK RECORD HIGHS FOR THE DATE. SEE THE
CLIMATE SECTION BELOW FOR MORE DETAILS.
MOST LOCATIONS SHOULD REMAIN DRY TODAY WITH WEAK CAPPING IN
PLACE ALOFT. HOWEVER, GUIDANCE HINTS THAT A FEW SHOWERS AND
POTENTIALLY EVEN A THUNDERSTORM OR TWO MAY DEVELOP LATER THIS
AFTERNOON INTO THIS EVENING ACROSS THE WEST VIRGINIA PANHANDLE,
NORTHERN SHENANDOAH VALLEY, OR NORTHERN MARYLAND.
KEY MESSAGE 2...A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH ON SUNDAY,
BRINGING RAINFALL AND PERHAPS A CHANCE FOR A THUNDERSTORM. MUCH
COOLER AIR MOVES IN BEHIND THE FRONT ON MONDAY.
THE AFOREMENTIONED SYSTEM'S COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE
NORTHWEST LATER TONIGHT, THEN MOVE THROUGH THE AREA FROM
NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST TOMORROW MORNING INTO TOMORROW
AFTERNOON. A COUPLE HOUR LONG PERIOD OF STEADY RAIN WILL
ACCOMPANY THE FRONTAL PASSAGE. THIS RAIN MAY REACH THE
ALLEGHENIES JUST PRIOR TO DAYBREAK, AND SHOULD CLEAR SOUTHERN
MARYLAND BY LATE AFTERNOON. IN TOTAL, MOST LOCATIONS ARE
EXPECTED TO RECEIVE BETWEEN A QUARTER AND A HALF OF AN INCH OF
RAIN, WHICH SHOULD BE BENEFICIAL GIVEN THE ONGOING DROUGHT
CONDITIONS.
THE FRONTAL PASSAGE WILL BE UNFAVORABLY TIMED FOR
MUCH INSTABILITY TO DEVELOP OUT AHEAD OF IT, BUT SOME WEAK
INSTABILITY MAY BUILD ALONG AND SOUTHEAST OF I-95. SOME OF THE
00Z CAMS HINT THAT A FEW THUNDERSTORMS MAY TRY TO FORM
IMMEDIATELY ALONG THE FRONT AS IT MOVES THROUGH LOCATIONS ALONG
AND SOUTHEAST OF I-95 EARLY TOMORROW AFTERNOON. WITH A STRONG
WIND FIELD IN PLACE ALOFT, ANY STORMS THAT DO FORM COULD
CONDITIONALLY POSE A THREAT FOR SOME DAMAGING WIND GUSTS.
WINDS WILL SHIFT TO OUT OF THE NORTHWEST BEHIND THE FRONT, AND
SKIES WILL GRADUALLY CLEAR OUT FROM NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST LATE
TOMORROW AFTERNOON INTO TOMORROW EVENING. MUCH COOLER AIR WILL
FILTER INTO THE REGION BEHIND THE FRONT SUNDAY NIGHT, WITH
TEMPERATURES DROPPING BACK INTO THE 30S AND LOWER 40S. MOSTLY
SUNNY SKIES ARE FORECAST FOR MONDAY, ALONG WITH A WESTERLY
BREEZE AND HIGH TEMPERATURES RANGING FROM THE UPPER 40S IN THE
MOUNTAINS TO THE MID 60S ACROSS CENTRAL VIRGINIA. MOST LOCATIONS
ARE EXPECTED TO SEE HIGHS IN THE UPPER 50S AND LOWER 60S.
KEY MESSAGE 3... SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE MID-
ATLANTIC THROUGH MIDWEEK WITH COOLER TEMPERATURES EXPECTED.
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE ORIGINATING FROM CANADA MOVES OVERHEAD THROUGH
MIDWEEK, BRINGING COOLER TEMPERATURES TO THE FORECAST AREA. TUESDAY
WILL BE THE COOLEST DAY OF THE LONG TERM PERIOD WITH HIGHS RANGING
FROM LOW 40S IN THE ALLEGHENIES TO LOW 60S IN CENTRAL VIRGINIA.
TEMPERATURES WILL GRADUALLY WARM EACH DAY WITH HIGHS ON FRIDAY IN
THE UPPER 60S TO MID 70S ACROSS THE AREA. DRY CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED EACH DAY WITH PRIMARILY LIGHT WINDS.
AVIATION /06Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED AT THE TERMINALS TODAY THROUGH
TONIGHT. WINDS WILL GENERALLY BE OUT OF THE SOUTH TODAY,
ALTHOUGH THEY MIGHT GO LIGHT AND VARIABLE FOR A BRIEF TIME THIS
MORNING. THOSE SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL GRADUALLY PICK UP IN
MAGNITUDE LATER THIS AFTERNOON INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. GUSTS
OF 20-25 KNOTS MAY BE POSSIBLE LATE TONIGHT INTO TOMORROW
MORNING. LLWS MAY ALSO BE POSSIBLE FOR A FEW HOURS TONIGHT AT
BWI AND MTN, BUT ISN'T EXPECTED ELSEWHERE.
SUB-VFR CEILINGS AND RAIN ARE EXPECTED AT ALL TERMINALS TOMORROW
MORNING AS A COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE AREA. THERE'S A VERY
SMALL CHANCE THAT A THUNDERSTORM OR TWO COULD FORM ALONG THE
FRONT AS IT MOVES THROUGH LATE SATURDAY MORNING INTO EARLY
SATURDAY AFTERNOON. WINDS SHIFT TO NORTHWESTERLY BEHIND THE
FRONT SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND CONDITIONS IMPROVE BACK TO VFR. VFR
CONDITIONS THEN PERSIST FOR THE FORESEEABLE FUTURE.
NORTHWEST WINDS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS ALL TERMINALS TUESDAY WITH GUSTS
UP TO 25 KNOTS EXPECTED. AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS
OVERHEAD, WINDS SHIFT TO SOUTHEASTERLY WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON.
WINDS ON WEDNESDAY BLOW 5 TO 10 KNOTS WITH GUSTS UP TO 15 KNOTS
EXPECTED.
MARINE
WINDS SHOULD GRADUALLY DROP BELOW SCA LEVELS OVER THE NEXT FEW
HOURS, BEFORE PICKING UP AGAIN OUT OF THE SOUTH LATER THIS
AFTERNOON INTO THIS EVENING. SCAS HAVE BEEN ISSUED FOR ALL
WATERS LATE THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING WITHIN
SOUTHERLY FLOW. A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE OVER THE WATERS EARLY
TOMORROW AFTERNOON. SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS MAY
ACCOMPANY THE FRONT, AND SMWS MAY POTENTIALLY BE NEEDED IF ANY
STRONGER STORMS WERE TO FORM. WINDS SHIFT TO OUT OF THE
NORTHWEST BEHIND THE FRONT LATER TOMORROW AFTERNOON, AND COULD
REACH LOW-END SCA LEVELS AT TIMES TOMORROW EVENING INTO TOMORROW
NIGHT. SUB-SCA LEVEL WESTERLY WINDS ARE EXPECTED ON MONDAY.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES ARE LIKELY ON TUESDAY AS NORTHWEST WINDS GUST
AROUND 20 KNOTS THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. WINDS DIMINISH OVERNIGHT,
ALTHOUGH ADVISORIES MAY BE NEEDED IN THE SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE
BAY AS GUSTS BETWEEN 15 AND 20 KNOTS CONTINUE THROUGH WEDNESDAY
MORNING. AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE AREA, WINDS
DIMINISH ACROSS ALL WATERS AND ARE EXPECTED TO STAY BELOW SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORY CRITERIA ON WEDNESDAY.
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING
ANOMALIES CONTINUE TO SLOWLY INCREASE WITHIN SOUTHERLY FLOW, AND
WILL REMAIN SLIGHTLY ELEVATED THROUGH THE DAY TODAY. A FEW
LOCATIONS MAY REACH ACTION STAGE OVER THE NEXT FEW TIDE CYCLES,
BUT NO FLOODING IS EXPECTED. ANOMALIES WILL DECREASE LATE SUNDAY
INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK AS WINDS TURN NORTHWESTERLY.
CLIMATE
TEMPERATURES OF 15 TO 25 DEGREES ABOVE AVERAGE ARE FORECAST FOR
TODAY. BELOW IS A LIST OF RECORD DAILY TEMPERATURES FOR OUR
REGIONAL CLIMATE SITES.
RECORD DAILY HIGH AND WARM LOWS FOR APRIL 4
SITE HIGH/YEAR(S) SET WARM LOW/YEAR(S) SET
DCA85/201166/1981
BWI 86/2011 63/1892
IAD85/201163/1981
DMH 87/201166/2025
NAK83/201160/2025
HGR81/201160/1974
MRB85/201163/1981
CHO88/201164/1974
PERIOD OF RECORD (POR) CONTEXT...
WASHINGTON DC AREA (DCA)
WEATHER RECORDS FOR THE WASHINGTON DC AREA HAVE BEEN RECORDED
AT WHAT IS NOW RONALD REAGAN WASHINGTON NATIONAL AIRPORT (KDCA)
SINCE 1941. THE OFFICIAL WEATHER RECORD CONSISTS OF THAT DATA
BACK TO 1945, AND OBSERVATIONS TAKEN IN DOWNTOWN WASHINGTON FROM
1871 TO 1944. TEMPERATURE RECORDS FOR THE WASHINGTON DC AREA
EXTEND BACK TO JANUARY 1872.
BALTIMORE MD AREA (BWI)
WEATHER RECORDS FOR THE BALTIMORE MD AREA HAVE BEEN RECORDED AT
WHAT IS NOW BALTIMORE/WASHINGTON INTERNATIONAL THURGOOD
MARSHALL AIRPORT (KBWI) SINCE 1950. THE OFFICIAL WEATHER RECORD
CONSISTS OF THAT DATA BACK TO 1950, AND OBSERVATIONS TAKEN IN
DOWNTOWN BALTIMORE FROM 1871 THROUGH 1949. TEMPERATURE RECORDS
FOR THE BALTIMORE MD AREA EXTEND BACK TO JULY 1872.
STERLING-DULLES AIRPORT VA AREA (IAD)
WEATHER RECORDS FOR THE STERLING-DULLES AIRPORT VA AREA HAVE
BEEN RECORDED AT WHAT IS NOW WASHINGTON DULLES INTERNATIONAL
AIRPORT (KIAD) SINCE 1960. THE OFFICIAL RECORD CONSISTS SOLELY
OF DATA RECORDED AT THE AIRPORT.
BALTIMORE DOWNTOWN MD AREA (DMH)
WEATHER RECORDS FOR THE BALTIMORE DOWNTOWN MD AREA HAVE BEEN
RECORDED AT WHAT IS NOW THE MARYLAND SCIENCE CENTER (KDMH)
SINCE 1999. THE OFFICIAL WEATHER RECORD CONSISTS OF THAT DATA
BACK TO 1999, AND OBSERVATIONS TAKEN IN THE CITY OF BALTIMORE
FROM JULY 1950 THROUGH 1998. DATA IS MISSING FROM JUNE 3 OF 2020
THROUGH AUGUST 14 OF 2022 WHEN THE OBSERVING SYSTEM HAD TO BE
REMOVED DUE TO A LARGE CONSTRUCTION PROJECT.
ANNAPOLIS MD AREA (NAK)
WEATHER RECORDS FOR THE ANNAPOLIS MD AREA HAVE BEEN RECORDED AT
WHAT IS NOW THE ANNAPOLIS U.S. NAVAL ACADEMY (KNAK) SINCE
OCTOBER 11 OF 2001. THE OFFICIAL WEATHER RECORD CONSISTS OF THAT
DATA BACK TO 2001, AND OBSERVATIONS THAT WERE TAKEN BETWEEN THE
ANNAPOLIS U.S. NAVAL ACADEMY AND THE ANNAPOLIS POLICE BARRACKS
FROM JULY OF 1894 THROUGH OCTOBER 10 OF 2001.
HAGERSTOWN MD AREA (HGR).
WEATHER RECORDS FOR THE HAGERSTOWN MD AREA HAVE BEEN RECORDED AT
WHAT IS NOW HAGERSTOWN REGIONAL AIRPORT (KHGR) SINCE OCTOBER OF
1998. THE OFFICIAL WEATHER RECORD CONSISTS OF THAT DATA BACK TO
OCTOBER OF 1998, AND OBSERVATIONS TAKEN ONE MILE EAST OF
HAGERSTOWN FROM 1899 THROUGH SEPTEMBER OF 1998.
MARTINSBURG WV AREA (MRB)
WEATHER RECORDS FOR THE MARTINSBURG WV AREA HAVE BEEN RECORDED
AT WHAT IS NOW EASTERN WEST VIRGINIA REGIONAL AIRPORT/SHEPHERD
FIELD (KMRB) SINCE 1938. THE OFFICIAL WEATHER RECORD CONSISTS OF
THAT DATA BACK TO 1944, AND OBSERVATIONS TAKEN IN DOWNTOWN
MARTINSBURG FROM 1891 THROUGH 1943.
CHARLOTTESVILLE VA AREA (CHO)
WEATHER RECORDS FOR THE CHARLOTTESVILLE VA AREA HAVE BEEN
RECORDED AT WHAT IS NOW CHARLOTTESVILLE-ALBEMARLE AIRPORT (KCHO)
SINCE APRIL 20 OF 1961. THE OFFICIAL WEATHER RECORD CONSISTS OF
THAT DATA BACK TO APRIL 20 OF 1961, AND OBSERVATIONS TAKEN TWO
MILES WEST OF DOWNTOWN CHARLOTTESVILLE FROM 1983 THROUGH APRIL
19 OF 1961.
LWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
DC...NONE.
MD...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 3 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 2 PM EDT
SUNDAY FOR MDZ008.
VA...NONE.
WV...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 3 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 2 PM EDT
SUNDAY FOR ANZ530>543.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 AM EDT EARLY THIS MORNING FOR
ANZ531>534-539>541-543.
DISCUSSION...AVS/KJP
AVIATION...AVS/KJP
MARINE...AVS/KJP
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