739
FXUS61 KLWX 130626
AFDLWX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC
226 AM EDT TUE OCT 13 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
ONLY CHANGE TO THE SHORT TERM FORECAST WAS TO LOWER DEW POINTS
THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH WEDNESDAY EVENING. OTHERWISE, NO OTHER
CHANGES NEEDED AT THIS TIME.
KEY MESSAGES
- 1) DRY AND VERY WARM THROUGH WEDNESDAY.
- 2) A STRONG FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE REGION LATE WEEK,
BRINGING STRONG WINDS AND COLD CONDITIONS.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1...DRY AND VERY WARM THROUGH WEDNESDAY.
WEAK HIGH PRESSURE SOUTH OF THE REGION TODAY SLIDES OFFSHORE AS MID-
LEVEL RIDGING BUILDS OVER THE DEEP SOUTH TROUGH WEDNESDAY. THIS IS
GOING TO ALLOW A SHORTWAVE TROUGHS TO QUICKLY SLIDE JUST NORTH OF
THE AREA WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON INTO WEDNESDAY EVENING. WELL ABOVE
NORMAL TEMPERATURES TODAY AND WEDNESDAY AS HIGHS REACH UP TO THE
80S. DRY CONDITIONS THROUGH WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON, THEN COULD SEE A
FEW SHOWERS IN THE ALLEGHENIES AS A FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE NORTH.
A LARGE SURFACE HIGH MOVES OVER SOUTHERN ONTARIO ON THURSDAY, WHICH
WILL WEDGE THAT FRONT SOUTH AND STALL OVER OUR AREA. CLOUDY AND
PASSING SHOWERS ARE LIKELY THURSDAY AS TEMPS RETURN TO NEAR NORMAL
VALUES IN THE 60S. THIS WILL BE A SHORT-LIVED AND WEAK CAD EVENT AS
THE HIGH MOVES OFFSHORE THURSDAY NIGHT AND SOUTHERLY WINDS
RETURN.
KEY MESSAGE 2...A STRONG FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE REGION LATE
WEEK, BRINGING STRONG WINDS AND COLD CONDITIONS.
A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IS FORECAST TO TRACK FROM THE GREAT LAKES
REGION INTO CANADA THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY, PUSHING A COLD FRONT
ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA ON FRIDAY. THIS FRONTAL SYSTEM BRINGS
INCREASED PRECIPITATION CHANCES ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA THURSDAY
AND FRIDAY, WITH A FEW RUMBLES OF THUNDER POSSIBLE AS THE COLD FRONT
PUSHES THROUGH ON FRIDAY. ADDITIONALLY, HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE 60S
TO LOW 80S COOL TO THE 40S AND 50S ON SATURDAY AS NOTICEABLY COLDER
AIR MOVES IN. BEHIND THE FRONT, TEMPERATURES PLUMMET INTO THE 30S
FOR MOST SATURDAY NIGHT WITH ONLY THE METRO AREAS STAYING IN THE LOW
40S. TEMPERATURES WILL GRADUALLY WARM ON SUNDAY WITH HIGHS IN THE
50S TO LOW 60S AND OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE UPPER 30S TO 40S.
BEHIND THE FRONTAL SYSTEM, SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE
CENTRAL CONUS BEGINNING ON FRIDAY BEFORE SHIFTING EASTWARD. A TIGHT
PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN THE SURFACE HIGH AND THE DEPARTING LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM LEADS TO WINDY CONDITIONS ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA
FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY. NORTHWEST WINDS GUST 20 TO 30 MILES PER
HOUR , WITH HIGHER ELEVATIONS GUSTING UP TO 40 MPH. WIND HEADLINES
MAY BE NEEDED ACROSS THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS BUT WE WILL CONTINUE TO
MONITOR.
IT'S ALSO WORTH MENTIONING THAT WITH GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS, UPSLOPE
SNOW SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE ALONG THE ALLEGHENIES LATE FRIDAY NIGHT
INTO SATURDAY MORNING. WHILE SNOW SHOWERS ARE UNLIKELY, A RAIN/SNOW
MIX CANNOT BE RULED OUT. LITTLE TO NO ACCUMULATION IS EXPECTED
ALTHOUGH THE FIRST FLAKES OF THE SEASON ARE POSSIBLE.
AVIATION /06Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/
PATCHY FOG IS POSSIBLE EARLY THIS MORNING AT CHO, MRB, AND IAD.
BEYOND THAT, VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT.
A FRONT PUSHES SOUTH INTO THE REGION, THEN STALLS ON THURSDAY. THIS
LIKELY BRINGS SHOWERS AND SUB-VFR CONDITIONS TO MOST OF THE
TERMINALS.
ON FRIDAY, SUB-VFR CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS ALL TERMINALS AS A
COLD FRONT MOVES ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA, BRINGING PRECIPITATION.
ADDITIONALLY, SOUTH WINDS IN THE MORNING SHIFT TO NORTHWESTERLY BY
THE EVENING GUSTING 20 TO 30 KNOTS. VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED ON
SATURDAY WITH NORTHWEST WINDS CONTINUING TO GUST 20 TO 30 KNOTS.
MARINE
SOUTH WINDS AROUND 10-15 KNOTS ARE EXPECTED TODAY ACROSS THE WATERS.
SOUTHERLY CHANNELING EFFECTS COULD BRING GUSTS CLOSE TO SCA LEVELS
(AROUND 20 KNOTS), BUT THIS LIKELY WON'T BE FOR A LONG ENOUGH PERIOD
TO REQUIRE A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY. INSTEAD, MARINE WEATHER
STATEMENTS ARE MORE LIKELY TO BE ISSUED FOR SMALL CRAFTS TO EXERCISE
CAUTION.
WINDS DIMINISH TONIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY, WITH GENERALLY SUB-SCA
CONDITIONS. A FRONT MOVES SOUTH ACROSS THE WATERS THURSDAY MORNING,
AND THIS IS LIKELY TO BRING SCA CONDITIONS WITH GUSTS AROUND 20
KNOTS FOR SEVERAL HOURS. WINDS DO QUICKLY DIMINISH THURSDAY
AFTERNOON.
SOUTHERLY WINDS ON FRIDAY MORNING SHIFT TO NORTHWEST FRIDAY
AFTERNOON AND REMAIN OUT OF THE NORTHWEST ON SATURDAY. A STRONG
PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN HIGH PRESSURE TO THE WEST AND LOW PRESSURE
TO THE NE WILL BRING GUSTY WINDS BOTH DAYS, WITH SCA CONDITIONS
EXPECTED. GALE FORCE WINDS ARE POSSIBLE OVER THE OPEN WATERS EACH
DAY.
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING
SOUTH WINDS ON WEDNESDAY COULD RESULT IN ELEVATED WATER LEVELS AT
SENSITIVE LOCATIONS ALONG THE CHESAPEAKE BAY. THIS COULD RESULT IN
SEVERAL STATIONS REACHING ACTION STAGE, WITH ANNAPOLIS FORECAST TO
BE CLOSER TO MINOR TIDAL FLOODING DURING THE WEDNESDAY EVENING HIGH
TIDE. A SURGE OF OFFSHORE (NORTH) WINDS THURSDAY MORNING WILL BRING
WATER LEVELS BACK DOWN.
LWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
DC...NONE.
MD...NONE.
VA...NONE.
WV...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
DISCUSSION...KRR/AVS
AVIATION...KRR/AVS
MARINE...KRR/AVS
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