051  
FXUS61 KLWX 280839  
AFDLWX  
 
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION  
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC  
339 AM EST MON NOV 28 2022  
   
SYNOPSIS
 
 
HIGH PRESSURE BEHIND A COLD FRONT WILL BUILD OVERHEAD THROUGH  
TONIGHT BEFORE MOVING OFFSHORE TUESDAY. A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL  
WILL PASS THROUGH THE AREA WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON INTO WEDNESDAY  
EVENING. HIGH PRESSURE WILL RETURN FOR THURSDAY BEFORE MOVING  
OFFSHORE FRIDAY. ANOTHER COLD FRONT MAY IMPACT THE AREA THIS  
WEEKEND.  
 

 
   
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/
 
 
NUMEROUS STRATOCUMULUS CLOUDS HAVE ENVELOPED THE REGION AS OF  
EARLY THIS MORNING AS A WEAK SURFACE TROUGH/UPPER WAVE CROSS.  
OTHER THAN A SPRINKLE OR TWO, DRY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED EAST  
OF THE ALLEGHENY FRONT WHERE SOME UPSLOPE SHOWERS PERSIST.  
 
AFTER DAYBREAK, WESTERLY TO NORTHWESTERLY BREEZES WILL  
INCREASE. A PATCH OF RELATIVELY DRIER AIR MAY TRY TO PART THE  
CLOUDS FOR A BIT LATER THIS MORNING, BUT A LOT OF CLOUD COVER  
AND ADDITIONAL SPRINKLES ARE EXPECTED AS THE MAIN COLD  
FRONT/UPPER TROUGH SWING THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON.  
 
WINDS WILL DIMINISH THIS EVENING AND SKIES WILL CLEAR.  
 

 
   
SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/
 
 
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER THE REGION TUESDAY LEADING TO DRY  
AND SEASONABLE CONDITIONS.  
 
A POWERFUL UPPER TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED SURFACE COLD FRONT WILL  
DIG TOWARD THE REGION WEDNESDAY. THE UPPER TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO  
TAKE ON A NEGATIVE TILT, SIGNIFYING STRONG LIFT. WINDS WILL ALSO  
BE QUITE STRONG WITH THIS SYSTEM, BOTH AHEAD OF AND BEHIND THE  
COLD FRONT. GUSTY SOUTHERLY WINDS OF 25 TO 35 MPH ARE POSSIBLE  
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON, BEFORE ABRUPTLY SHIFTING TO THE WEST AND  
NORTHWEST WITH GUSTS TO AROUND 50 MPH POSSIBLE WEDNESDAY  
EVENING. WINDS MAY BE ENHANCED WITH ANY SHOWER ACTIVITY ALONG  
THE FRONT, AND SOME SHOWERS MAY BE HEAVY GIVEN UNUSUALLY HIGH  
HUMIDITY FOR THIS LATE IN THE YEAR.  
 
GUSTY WINDS LIKELY PERSIST IN SOME FORM WEDNESDAY NIGHT IN THE  
WAKE OF THE FRONT AS COLDER/DRIER AIR POURS IN.  
 

 
   
LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/
 
 
HIGH PRESSURE WILL APPROACH THURSDAY BEHIND A COLD FRONT. GUSTY  
NORTHWEST WINDS ALONG WITH SHARPLY COLDER CONDITIONS WILL MAKE  
IT FEEL MORE LIKE WINTER. HOWEVER, IT WILL REMAIN DRY. HIGHS  
WILL RANGE FROM THE 20S AND 30S IN THE MOUNTAINS, TO THE 40S FOR  
MOST OTHER LOCATIONS. THE HIGH WILL SETTLE OVERHEAD THURSDAY  
NIGHT, AND WINDS WILL DECREASE AROUND SUNSET. LIGHT WINDS AND  
MAINLY CLEAR SKIES WILL CAUSE RADIATIONAL COOLING, SO THURSDAY  
NIGHT WILL BE COLD WITH LOWS IN THE 20S FOR MOST PLACES.  
 
THE HIGH WILL MOVE OFFSHORE FRIDAY, AND A SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL  
ALLOW FOR A MILDER AFTERNOON, BUT STILL COOL WITH HIGHS IN THE  
40S AND 50S.  
 
A NORTHERN STREAM SYSTEM IN A NEARLY ZONAL FLOW ALOFT WILL  
APPROACH FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY, BEFORE PASSING BY TO THE  
NORTH SATURDAY NIGHT. THE COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SYSTEM  
WILL PASS THROUGH THE AREA LATE SATURDAY INTO SATURDAY NIGHT.  
WARM ADVECTION AHEAD OF IT WILL ALLOW FOR MILDER CONDITIONS  
FRIDAY NIGHT (COMPARED TO THURSDAY NIGHT) AND SATURDAY. HIGHS  
SATURDAY WILL BE IN THE 50S AND 60S (40S IN THE MOUNTAINS). WITH  
THE SOUTHERLY FLOW, THERE WILL BE MORE MOISTURE, AND A FEW  
SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE FRONT AS EARLY AS  
LATER FRIDAY NIGHT, BUT THE BETTER CHANCE WILL BE SATURDAY INTO  
SATURDAY NIGHT. EXACT TIMING IS UNCERTAIN THIS FAR OUT, BUT IT  
DOES APPEAR THAT ANY RAINFALL AMOUNTS WILL BE LIGHT, SINCE MOST  
OF THE SOUTHERN STREAM MOISTURE WILL BE CLOSED OFF (NOTE UPPER-  
LEVEL RIDGE OVER GULF OF MEXICO).  
 
THE FRONT WILL DROP TO THE SOUTH SUNDAY, BUT A WAVE OF LOW  
PRESSURE MAY TRACK ALONG THE BOUNDARY. THEREFORE, KEPT  
PRECIPITATION CHANCES IN THE FORECAST FOR NOW. HOWEVER, IT IS  
POSSIBLE THAT THERE IS A BREAK OF DRIER CONDITIONS IF THE HIGH  
CAN BUILD FAR ENOUGH SOUTH. WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR.  
 

 
   
AVIATION /07Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/
 
 
MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED AT THE TAF SITES THROUGH  
TUESDAY NIGHT, THOUGH PATCHES OF MVFR STRATOCU CAN'T BE RULED  
OUT AT TIMES ESPECIALLY THROUGH ABOUT 00Z THIS EVENING. W/NW  
WINDS WILL GUST 20-25 KTS DURING THIS TIME.  
 
SUB-VFR CONDITIONS ARE LIKELY WEDNESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT  
ALONG WITH PERIODS OF LLWS AND SURFACE GUSTS IN EXCESS OF 35  
KTS AS A STRONG COLD FRONT CROSSES, TURNING S WINDS W/NW.  
 
GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS AROUND 20 TO 35 KNOTS ARE POSSIBLE  
THURSDAY, BUT WINDS WILL DIMINISH QUICKLY AROUND SUNSET. WINDS  
WILL TURN SOUTHERLY FRIDAY. VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED  
THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY.  
 

 
   
MARINE
 
 
W/NW WIND GUSTS OF 20 TO 25 KTS ARE EXPECTED MUCH OF TODAY IN  
THE WAKE OF A PASSING COLD FRONT. WINDS WILL DIMINISH QUICKLY  
THIS EVENING, THEN BECOME SOUTHERLY TUESDAY/TUESDAY NIGHT.  
 
WINDS WILL INCREASE AGAIN WEDNESDAY AHEAD OF A STRONG COLD  
FRONT, WITH GALES BECOMING INCREASINGLY LIKELY WEDNESDAY  
AFTERNOON THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING. SQUALLS AND AN ABRUPT WIND  
SHIFT TO THE NW MAY ACCOMPANY THE FRONT LATE WEDNESDAY.  
 
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD TOWARD THE WATERS THURSDAY BEFORE  
SETTLING OVERHEAD THURSDAY NIGHT. GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS ARE  
EXPECTED THURSDAY, AND AN SCA WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED FOR THE  
WATERS. A GALE WARNING MAY EVEN BE NEEDED FOR PORTIONS OF THE  
WATERS, ESPECIALLY THURSDAY MORNING. WINDS WILL DIMINISH  
THURSDAY NIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVERHEAD, BUT AN SCA MAY  
BE NEEDED THURSDAY EVENING OVER THE OPEN WATERS.  
 
SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL INCREASE BEHIND DEPARTING HIGH PRESSURE  
FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT, AND AN SCA MAY BE NEEDED FOR PORTIONS  
OF THE WATERS.  
 

 
   
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING
 
 
TIDAL ANOMALIES WILL FALL SHARPLY TODAY WITH AN OFFSHORE FLOW.  
A SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL INCREASE WEDNESDAY AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT.  
MINOR TIDAL FLOODING IS POSSIBLE LATE WEDNESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY  
NIGHT, BUT CONFIDENCE IS LOW DEPENDING ON THE EXACT TIME OF THE  
FRONTAL PASSAGE AND HOW THAT COINCIDES WITH HIGH TIDE. THE  
FRONT MAY PASS THROUGH BEFORE THE HIGH TIDE WEDNESDAY NIGHT, AND  
STRONG OFFSHORE WINDS MAY DEVELOP IN TIME FOR ANOMALIES TO FALL  
SHARPLY BEFORE THE HIGH TIDE.  
 

 
   
LWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
 
 
DC...NONE.  
MD...NONE.  
VA...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EST EARLY THIS MORNING FOR VAZ503.  
WV...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EST EARLY THIS MORNING FOR WVZ501-505.  
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 9 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR ANZ530-  
531-539-540.  
GALE WATCH FROM WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING  
FOR ANZ530>543.  
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 1 AM EST TUESDAY FOR ANZ532>534-537-  
541-543.  
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 9 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR ANZ535-  
536-538-542.  
 

 
 

 
SYNOPSIS...BJL  
NEAR TERM...DHOF  
SHORT TERM...DHOF  
LONG TERM...BJL  
AVIATION...BJL/DHOF  
MARINE...BJL/DHOF  
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...BJL  
 
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