378
FXUS61 KLWX 170717
AFDLWX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC
217 AM EST TUE FEB 17 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
FOG AND LOW STRATUS CONTINUE TO DEVELOP OVER MOST OF THE
NORTHERN/EASTERN PARTS OF THE AREA. LOCALLY DENSE FOG IS
POSSIBLE THROUGH MID MORNING.
KEY MESSAGES
- 1) WELL ABOVE AVERAGE TEMPERATURES EXPECTED THIS WEEK, WITH A
STALLED FRONTAL BOUNDARY BRINGING SHOWER CHANCES STARTING
WEDNESDAY.
- 2) WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION CHANCES AND COOLER CONDITIONS
RETURN THIS WEEKEND.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1...WELL ABOVE AVERAGE TEMPERATURES EXPECTED THIS WEEK,
WITH A STALLED FRONTAL BOUNDARY BRINGING SHOWER CHANCES STARTING
WEDNESDAY.
AREAS OF FOG HAVE DEVELOPED EARLY THIS MORNING, ESPECIALLY IN
THE NORTHERN SHENANDOAH VALLEY. THERE IS ALSO A BROAD LOW
STRATUS DECK AND MIST THAT ARE NOW COVERING MOST AREAS EAST OF
THE BLUE RIDGE, AND AS FAR SOUTH/WEST AS AROUND WARRENTON.
ADDITIONAL PATCHES OF DENSE FOG ARE POSSIBLE, AND IF COVERAGE
IS HIGH ENOUGH, THEN A DENSE FOG ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED. FOG
IS EXPECTED TO DISSIPATE AFTER SUNRISE, THOUGH LOW CLOUDS STICK
AROUND IN SOME ARES THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON.
A BROAD SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE JUST SOUTH OF THE AREA TODAY IS
FORECAST TO MOVE OFFSHORE TONIGHT. THIS YIELDS INCREASED SOUTH TO
SOUTHWESTERLY RETURN FLOW. 850-MB TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST TO
REBOUND TO 5-8C, WHICH SUPPORTS HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE MID 50S TO
LOW 60S (WARMEST ACROSS CENTRAL VIRGINIA TO THE ALLEGHENY MOUNTAIN
VALLEYS). THESE TEMPERATURES COULD BE A TAD OPTIMISTIC BASED ON THE
ADDED CLOUD COVER AND SOME INCREASING SHOWER CHANCES STARTING
WEDNESDAY. BASED ON PROBABILITIES FOR BETTER RAIN CHANCES, THURSDAY
COULD END UP BEING COOLER AS A FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL BE STALLED
VERY CLOSE TO, IF NOT, OVER THE REGION.
KEY MESSAGE 2...WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION CHANCES AND COOLER
CONDITIONS RETURN THIS WEEKEND.
TURNING MUCH MORE UNSETTLED FRIDAY INTO THE UPCOMING WEEKEND.
PROBABILITIES CONTINUE TO REMAIN MARGINAL FOR PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS,
P-TYPE, AND INTENSITY FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY. MODEL TRENDS REMAIN ALL
OVER THE PLACE WITH A LEADER-FOLLWER TYPE OF SETUP DURING THE
AFOREMENTIONED TIMEFRAME. THE INITIAL TROUGH AND DEEP SURFACE LOW
TRACK TOWARD THE GREAT LAKES ON FRIDAY. EVENTUALLY, A COOLER POST-
FRONTAL AIR MASS ENSUES SUNDAY. AT THE SAME TIME, THE SOUTHERN
STREAM BEGINS TO UNDERGO SOME DEGREE OF AMPLIFICATION ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN U.S. WHERE EXACTLY THIS SYSTEM TRACKS TOWARD THE ATLANTIC
COAST WILL DICTATE ANY NOTABLE IMPACTS TO THE LOCAL AREA. THE
DETERMINISTIC AND AI MODELS CONTINUE TO SEESAW OUTPUTS OF VARYING
DEGREES OF WINTRY PRECIPITATION FOR THE SECOND HALF OF THE WEEKEND.
UNCERTAINTY IN ANY GIVEN OUTPUT IS VERY HIGH, WITH MODELS LIKELY TO
CONTINUE FLUCTUATING UNTIL WE ARE CLOSER TO THE EVENT. CONTINUE TO
MONITOR THE WEATHER FORECAST THIS WEEK. HIGH TEMPERATURES THIS
WEEKEND FALL BACK TO 40S AND 50S SATURDAY, WITH 30S AND 40S SUNDAY.
ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS ACROSS CENTRAL TO EASTERN CONUS EARLY
NEXT WEEK, BRINGING THE RETURN OF WINTER TEMPERATURES.
AVIATION /07Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/
LOW STRATUS AND ABUNDANT MIST HAVE OVERSPREAD MOST OF THE TERMINALS,
EXCEPT FOR CHO WHICH SHOULD REMAIN MOSTLY VFR THIS MORNING. SOME
LOCALLY DENSE FOG IS POSSIBLE, WITH RECENT OBSERVATIONS OF THIS
HAPPENING AT MRB. WIDESPREAD IFR CONDITIONS ARE LIKELY, WITH LIFR
POSSIBLE IF DENSE FOG FORMS. CONDITIONS START TO IMPROVE AFTER
SUNRISE, WITH VFR CONDITIONS RETURNING BY EARLY AFTERNOON.
EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH WEDNESDAY WITH MOSTLY MID TO HIGH
CLOUDS AND A LOW CHANCE OF PASSING SHOWERS. A BACKDOOR COLD FRONT
BRINGS A WIND SHIFT THURSDAY. SUB-VFR CONDITIONS INCREASE AT THE END
OF THIS WEEK DUE TO A STALLED FRONTAL BOUNDARY OVER/NEAR THE REGION.
ADDITIONAL SUB-VFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE THIS WEEKEND.
MARINE
SUB-SCA LEVEL WINDS CONTINUE THROUGH TONIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE MOVES
OFFSHORE. SCA CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WEDNESDAY MORNING TO WEDNESDAY
EVENING, PARTICULARLY ACROSS THE CENTRAL CHESAPEAKE BAY DUE TO
SOUTHERLY CHANNELING. SUB-SCA WINDS RETURN THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY,
THOUGH RAIN CHANCES INCREASE DUE TO A NEARBY STALLED FRONTAL
BOUNDARY.
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING
TIDAL ANOMALIES ARE SLOWLY RISING AS ONSHORE WINDS BRING ADDITIONAL
WATER UP THE CHESAPEAKE. MANY, IF NOT MOST, SENSITIVE LOCATIONS ARE
GOING TO REACH ACTION STAGE DURING THE HIGH TIDES TODAY. ANNAPOLIS
IS THE MOST LIKELY TO REACH MINOR FLOOD STAGE, WITH THE BEST CHANCE
FOR THAT DURING THE EVENING HIGH TIDE. TIDE LEVELS DROP A BIT AS
WINDS TURN SOUTHWEST, THOUGH SOME LOCATIONS LIKELY REACH ACTION
STAGE AGAIN ON WEDNESDAY.
LWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
DC...NONE.
MD...NONE.
VA...NONE.
WV...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
DISCUSSION...KRR/EST
AVIATION...KRR/EST
MARINE...KRR/EST
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