072
FXUS61 KLWX 130113
AFDLWX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC
913 PM EDT TUE MAY 12 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
NO MAJOR CHANGES WERE MADE TO THE FORECAST THIS EVENING.
KEY MESSAGES
1) GUSTY THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND
EVENING.
2) AFTER ANOTHER COOL DOWN, ABOVE AVERAGE TEMPERATURES RETURN
FOR THE WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1...GUSTY THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
UL TROF PROGGED TO MOVE ACROSS GL WITH CORRESPONDING SFC LOW
MOVING EAST WED. WAA WILL PREVAIL AHEAD OF FROPA WITH GUSTY S'LY
WINDS. THIS WILL BRING TEMPS INTO THE 70S AREAWIDE. INITIAL WAVE
MAY BRING SOME SHOWERS, BUT LL DRY AIR IN PLACE LIKELY LIMITS
ERN EXTENT. SECOND ROUND OF CONVECTION COULD BE MORE ROBUST
GIVEN THE BACKGROUND SHEAR. THERE MAY BE SOME STORM
ORGANIZATION. GIVEN TIMING OF TSTORMS NEAR ALLEGHENIES AROUND
PEAK HEATING, SPC HAS MRGL (LEVEL 1 OUT OF 5) FOR SVR WX ON WED.
STORMS SHOULD GRADUALLY WEAKEN AS THEY MOVE EAST. SOME MODELS DO
HAVE A FEW TENTHS OF QPF WEST OF I-95 AS STORMS DIMINISH. THE
MAIN THREAT WILL BE STRONG TO LOCALLY DAMAGING WINDS.
KEY MESSAGE 2...AFTER ANOTHER COOL DOWN, ABOVE AVERAGE
TEMPERATURES RETURN FOR THE WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.
COOLER THU WITH ULL OVER NE. SOME RESIDUAL UPSLOPE RAIN SHOWERS
DURING THE DAY, WITH LOW PROBS OF A SHOWER E OF THE MTNS.
HIGH PRES BUILDS OVERHEAD FRI WHICH MARKS THE START OF THE WARM
UP. UL RIDGING CONTINUES TO BUILD IN THROUGH THE WEEKEND. HIGHS
BY SAT & SUN LIKELY WIDESPREAD 80S (OUTSIDE TERRAIN) WITH LOW
90S POSSIBLE BY SUN. SW MAY BRING SHOWER AND TSTORM POTENTIAL
AT SOME POINT BETWEEN SAT AND SUN, BUT LOW CONFIDENCE. DRIER AIR
MOVES INTO THE REGION AT THE START OF NEXT WEEK AS UPPER LEVEL
RIDGING BUILDS, MINIMIZING ADDITIONAL RAIN CHANCES.
AVIATION /01Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WITH S WINDS TONIGHT. SOME
GUSTINESS MAY DEVELOP OVERNIGHT AT TIMES, WITH GUSTS TO 25 KT
MORE COMMON ON WED. THERE MAY BE MULTIPLE ROUNDS OF SHOWERS AND
EMBEDDED TSTORMS, ONE DURING MIDDAY TO AFTERNOON, AND THE SECOND
DURING THE EVENING. ANY TSTORMS COULD CONTAIN GUSTY OUTFLOW,
ESPECIALLY AT MRB. THE COLD FRONT TRACKS THROUGH WED NIGHT,
WHICH BRINGS AN END TO ANY SHOWERS AND SHIFTS WINDS TO THE NW.
AN ULL WILL BE NEARBY ON THU INTO FRI WHICH WILL LIKELY ADD
STRATOCUMULUS, WITH A WORST CASE BEING MVFR CEILINGS AT TIMES.
NW'LY WINDS WILL ALSO GUST TO 25 KT.
A SW POTENTIALLY BRINGS SOME SCATTERED SHOWERS IN THE SAT
AFTERNOON/EVENING TIMEFRAME, BUT PREVAILING VFR CONDITIONS ARE
OTHERWISE EXPECTED OTHERWISE. LIGHT WINDS FRI NIGHT SHIFT
SW SAT AFTERNOON.
MARINE
S'LY FLOW WILL TAKE HOLD THIS AFTERNOON, INCREASING TONIGHT AS
HIGH PRESSURE DEPARTS. GUSTS OF 20 TO 25 KNOTS WILL BE
COMMONPLACE ACROSS A MAJORITY OF THE WATERS, ESPECIALLY BY
WED. WHILE WIND GUST FORECASTS ARE TRICKY ON THE INTERIOR
WATERWAYS DURING THE OVERNIGHT, HAVE EVENTUALLY ALL WATERS
ENTERING A SCA TONIGHT. THE CURRENT ADVISORY CONTINUES THROUGH
6 PM WED, ALTHOUGH IT WILL LIKELY NEED TO BE EXTENDED INTO THE
EVENING. SOME LATE AFTERNOON TO EVENING TSTORMS. COULD IMPACT
THE WATERS AS THE COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE WEST. ANY
STRONGER STORM MAY REQUIRE SMWS.
WINDS SHIFT TO W-NW EARLY THU BEHIND THE COLD FRONT. WINDS WILL
INCREASE THROUGH THE DAY, AND ADVISORIES WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED.
SCA CONDITIONS LIKELY CONTINUE THROUGH FRI AFTERNOON. WINDS
FALL BELOW SCA CRITERIA BY FRI EVENING. NW WINDS SHIFT
S'LY BY THE AFTERNOON ON SAT.
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING
EXPECT A GRADUAL UPTICK IN WATER LEVELS AHEAD OF A MID-WEEK
LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM. THE INFLUENCE OF INCREASING S'LIES WILL
CARRY THE TIDAL FORECAST TO ACTION STAGE AT SEVERAL LOCATIONS
DURING TIMES OF HIGH TIDE. THE STEVENS ENSEMBLE SHOWS THE
POTENTIAL FOR MINOR TIDAL FLOODING BY EARLY THU AT ANNAPOLIS.
EXPECT ANOMALIES TO FALL THEREAFTER AS WINDS SHIFT TO NW'LY.
LWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
DC...NONE.
MD...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 2 AM TO 6 PM EDT WEDNESDAY FOR
MDZ008.
VA...NONE.
WV...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 2 AM TO 6 PM EDT WEDNESDAY FOR
ANZ530-535>539-542.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EDT WEDNESDAY FOR ANZ531>534-
540-541-543.
DISCUSSION...ADS/KJP/CPB
AVIATION...ADS/CPB
MARINE...ADS/CPB/SRT
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.
Main Text Page