320  
FXUS61 KLWX 020116  
AFDLWX  
 
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION  
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC  
916 PM EDT TUE JUL 1 2025  
   
SYNOPSIS  
 
AN UPPER TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE  
AREA LATER TONIGHT INTO TOMORROW. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER  
THE AREA LATER THIS WEEK INTO THE WEEKEND.  
 
 
   
NEAR TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/  
 
THE MAIN LINE OF THUNDERSTORMS THAT BROUGHT STRONG WINDS AND  
HEAVY RAINFALL TO PARTS OF THE AREA EARLIER THIS EVENING HAS NOW  
PUSHED SOUTH/EAST. THE FLOOD WATCH AND SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH  
HAVE BEEN CANCELLED.  
 
AS WE CONTINUE THROUGH THIS EVENING, LIGHT TO MODERATE  
STRATIFORM RAIN CONTINUES FOR A GOOD PORTION OF THE THE AREA  
ALONG AND EAST OF THE BLUE RIDGE. A FEW THUNDERSTORMS WITH HEAVY  
RAINFALL WILL BE POSSIBLE IN CENTRAL VA THIS EVENING, HOWEVER  
WITH THE LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING WE ARE NOT EXPECTING ADDITIONAL  
SEVERE STORMS IN OUR AREA.  
 
THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY THAT FUELED EARLIER CONVECTION HAS NOW  
STALLED ALONG I-95 THROUGH STAFFORD, AND STRETCHES SOUTHWEST  
TOWARD TOWARD STAUNTON AND ALONG THE ALLEGHENY FRONT IN SW VA.  
THIS IS GOING TO HELP KEEP LIGHT SHOWERS THROUGH THE NIGHT  
ACROSS MOST OF THE AREA. WHERE WINDS GO LIGHT THERE COULD BE  
SOME PATCHY FOG. MUGGY CONDITIONS AS LOWS SETTLE IN THE 60S TO  
LOW 70S.  
 
 
   
SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/  
 
SHOWERS ARE STILL LIKELY TO BE ONGOING SOUTH OF I-70 AT 12Z WED,  
BUT SHOULD START PROGRESSING SOUTHWARD MORE RAPIDLY THROUGH THE  
DAY AND SHOULD HAVE MOSTLY EXITED THE FCST AREA BY 18Z, EXCEPT  
PERHAPS THE SOUTHERN TIP OF ST. MARY'S COUNTY. AFTER THAT, DRY  
AIR WILL FILTER IN.  
 
A REINFORCING SHORTWAVE-TROUGH WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA THU  
AFTERNOON BRINGING A THREAT OF SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS  
AREAS WEST OF I-81. DRY THU NIGHT INTO FRI JUST IN TIME FOR THE  
FOURTH OF JULY.  
 
 
   
LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/  
 
DRY CONDITIONS AND SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES CONTINUE FRIDAY  
THROUGH SUNDAY. HEAT AND HUMIDITY RETURNS SUNDAY NIGHT AND  
MONDAY AND SO DOES THE SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES THROUGH  
THIS PERIOD. A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE WILL BE THE FOCAL POINT OF  
ANY CONVECTION SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY MORNING. A COLD FRONT  
THAT FOLLOWS THE TROUGH WILL BE THE FOCAL POINT OF CONVECTION  
MONDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. HIGHS FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY WILL  
BE IN THE MIDDLE TO UPPER 80S. HIGHS MONDAY SHOULD REACH NEAR 90  
OR THE LOWER 90S.  
 
 
   
AVIATION /01Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/  
 
A STALLED FRONTAL BOUNDARY OVER THE AREA TONIGHT COULD RESULT IN  
PERIODS OF LOW STRATUS AND PATCHY GROUND FOG. THE GREATEST  
CHANCE FOR MVFR TO POSSIBLY IFR CONDITIONS WILL BE AT CHO.  
 
CONDITIONS QUICKLY IMPROVE AFTER SUNRISE WEDNESDAY MORNING,  
WITH VFR CONDITIONS CONTINUING THROUGH THURSDAY.  
 
VFR CONDITIONS AT ALL TERMINALS FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT.  
WINDS NORTHWEST AROUND 5 KNOTS BECOMING LIGHT AND VARIABLE  
FRIDAY INTO FRIDAY NIGHT. WINDS LIGHT BECOMING SOUTHEAST 5 KNOTS  
SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT.  
 
 
   
MARINE  
 
SCA CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE MIDDLE AND LOWER BAY AND  
SOUTH OF COBB ISLAND. WHILE SOME THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUE THIS  
EVENING, EXPECT MOST OF THE ACTIVITY TO STAY SOUTH OF THE LOCAL  
WATERS.  
 
WINDS ARE FORECAST TO REMAIN BELOW SCA LEVELS WEDNESDAY AND  
THURSDAY. A FEW THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE IN THE MIDDLE  
CHESAPEAKE BAY AND LOWER TIDAL POTOMAC WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON.  
THESE COULD POSE A THREAT TO MARINERS FROM GUSTY WINDS AND  
LIGHTNING STRIKES. AFTER THAT, DRY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED  
WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY.  
 
NO MARINE HAZARDS FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT. WINDS NORTHWEST 5  
TO 10 KNOTS FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT. WINDS BECOMING SOUTHEAST 5 TO  
10 KNOTS SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT.  
 
 
   
LWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES  
 
DC...NONE.  
MD...NONE.  
VA...NONE.  
WV...NONE.  
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EDT WEDNESDAY FOR ANZ534-537-  
543.  
 
 
 
 
 
SYNOPSIS...LFR  
NEAR TERM...KRR  
SHORT TERM...LFR  
LONG TERM...KLW  
AVIATION...KRR/KLW  
MARINE...KRR/KLW  
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