987
FXUS61 KLWX 271916
AFDLWX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC
316 PM EDT MON JUL 27 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR ANNE ARUNDEL COUNTY
FOR TUESDAY MORNING'S HIGH TIDE. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES HAVE
BEEN ISSUED FOR ALL THE WATERS FOR TUESDAY.
KEY MESSAGES
- SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS TUESDAY WITH A STRONG
FRONTAL PASSAGE.
- A FEW CHANCES FOR RAIN THROUGH THE WEEKEND, BUT NO HAZARDOUS
WEATHER EXPECTED BETWEEN WEDNESDAY AND SUNDAY AT THIS TIME.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1...SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS TUESDAY WITH A STRONG
FRONTAL PASSAGE.
KEY MESSAGE 1 DESCRIPTION...
SHORTWAVE RIDGING ALOFT SHOULD LIMIT THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE THIS
AFTERNOON. 18Z NUCAPS DATA SHOWED RELATIVELY STEEP MID-LEVEL
LAPSE RATES WHICH MAY RESULT IN AN ISOLD SEVERE THUNDERSTORM,
HOWEVER, RELATIVELY LOW 850 MB DEWPOINTS SUGGEST COVERAGE WILL
REMAIN VERY SPARSE THIS AFTERNOON INTO THIS EVENING. A QUIET
PERIOD IS ANTICIPATED THIS EVENING, BEFORE THE FIRST ROUND OF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ASSOCIATED WITH AN APPROACHING COLD
FRONT ARRIVES AFTER 09Z TUE.
A SHARPENING TROUGH ASSOCIATED WITH A DEEPENING UPPER LOW AND
SFC LOW OVER WESTERN NY AND LK ONTARIO IS EXPECTED TO PROMOTE
STRONG HEIGHT FALLS AND PROVIDE LARGE SCALE FORCING FOR UPWARD
VERTICAL MOTION. MULTIPLE ROUNDS OF WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ARE ANTICIPATED THROUGH THE DAY INTO THE EVENING.
STRENGTHENING MID-LEVEL WINDS WILL RESULT IN AN INCREASINGLY
SHEARED ENVIRONMENT TO SUPPORT SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN A
MODERATELY UNSTABLE ENVIRONMENT. WHILE SOME INTENSE RAINFALL
RATES ARE EXPECTED, THE PROGRESSIVE NATURE OF THUNDERSTORMS
SHOULD LIMIT THE THREAT OF FLASH FLOODING. CONVECTION SHOULD
START EXITING THE AREA AFTER 00Z WED AS THE COLD FRONT CROSSES
THE AREA.
KEY MESSAGE 2...A FEW CHANCES FOR RAIN THROUGH THE WEEKEND, BUT NO HAZARDOUS
WEATHER EXPECTED BETWEEN WEDNESDAY AND SUNDAY AT THIS TIME.
KEY MESSAGE 2 DESCRIPTION...
THE UPPER-LOW OVER THE NORTHEAST CONUS WILL LINGER THROUGH FRIDAY
BEFORE FINALLY PULLING OFF TO THE NORTHEAST. AS A RESULT, THERE WILL
BE NON-ZERO RAIN CHANCES EACH DAY, PRIMAIRLY AREAS FURTHER NORTH AND
EAST. FRIDAY COULD BE DRY FOR ALL, BUT STILL A BIT OF UNCERTAINTY
REGARDING EXACTLY WHEN THE UPPER LOW DEPARTS.
A BROAD UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH WILL BEGIN TO FORM OVER THE OHIO RIVER
VALLEY OVER THE WEEKEND. AS THIS TROUGH TRACKS EAST, CLOUD COVER &
PRECIPITATION CHANCES WILL BEGIN TO INCREASE, PARTICULARLY BETWEEN
SATURDAY EVENING AND SUNDAY AS THE LOW TRACKS OFFSHORE AND TOWARDS
THE NORTHEAST. SEVERE PROBABILITIES LOOK LOW AT THIS TIME, WITH A
PRETTY WEAK WIND FIELD ALOFT. NONETHELESS, WEEKEND SHOWERS ARE
POSSIBLE WITH THIS SYSTEM SHOULD THE SYNOPTIC SETUP CONTINUE TO
TREND TOWARD DEVELOPMENT OVER THE MIDWEST.
AVIATION /18Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/
ISOLD TSRA POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON, BUT PROBS REMAIN TOO LOW FOR
A PROB30. MULTIPLE ROUNDS OF THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TUE,
SOME POSSIBLY SEVERE WITH DAMAGING WIND GUSTS. ONE ROUND IS
POSSIBLE AROUND 12Z, THE SECOND ONE DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON
INTO THE EVENING, BUT THE TIMING REMAINS VERY BROAD. STORMS
SHOULD START EXITING THE AREA AFTER 00Z WED.
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED ON FRIDAY. HOWEVER, AN UPPER-LOW TO OUR
NORTHEAST COULD BRING SOME SHOWERS CLOSE TO BWI/MTN. THIS IS A VERY
LOW LIKELIHOOD SCENARIO AT THIS TIME, BUT CAN'T COMPLETLY RULE IT
OUT. EITHER WAY, NO SIGNIFICANT REDUCTIONS APPEAR LIKELY AT THIS
TIME.
SATURDAY APPEARS TO BE ANOTHER DAY WITH OCCASIONAL SHOWERS POSSIBLE,
BUT VFR CONDITIONS OTHERWISE.
MARINE
WINDS WILL STRENGTHEN TONIGHT INTO TUE IN SOUTHERLY FLOW WITH
SCA CONDITIONS EXPECTED TUE INTO TUE NIGHT. SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS
TUE-TUE EVENING MAY ALSO REQUIRE SMWS. WINDS SHIFT TO NW TUE
NIGHT BEHIND A COLD FRONT WITH SCA CONDITIONS EXPECTED INTO
FRIDAY MORNING.
WINDS WILL DROP BELOW SCA CRITERIA FOR FRIDAY AND CONTINUE FOR MUCH
OF SATURDAY. HOWEVER, AS WINDS TURN SOUTHERLY LATE SATURDAY
AFTERNOON/EVENING, WINDS COULD APPROACH SCA CRITERIA AS THEY CHANNEL
UP THE CHESAPEAKE BAY.
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING
TIDAL ANOMALIES REMAIN SLIGHTLY ELEVATED DURING THE FULL MOON PHASE,
THUS PUSHING MOST SITES INTO ACTION STAGE. ANNAPOLIS IS FORECAST TO
HIG MINOR FLOOD STAGE DURING THE HIGHER HIGH TIDE CYCLE THROUGH
WEDNESDAY, BUT OTHER SENSITIVE SPOTS COULD COME CLOSE AS WELL (HAVRE
DE GRACE, AND ALEXANDRIA).
LWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
DC...NONE.
MD...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 8 AM TO 8 PM EDT TUESDAY FOR MDZ008.
COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY FROM 3 AM TO 8 AM EDT TUESDAY FOR
MDZ014.
VA...NONE.
WV...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 8 AM TO 8 PM EDT TUESDAY FOR
ANZ530>533-537>542.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 8 AM TUESDAY TO 6 AM EDT WEDNESDAY
FOR ANZ534-543.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 1 PM TO 8 PM EDT TUESDAY FOR ANZ535-
536.
DISCUSSION...LFR/CJL
AVIATION...LFR/CJL
MARINE...LFR/CJL
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