111
FXUS61 KLWX 270846
AFDLWX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC
346 AM EST FRI FEB 27 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
LOCALLY DENSE FOG IS POSSIBLE THIS MORNING, AND COULD REPEAT
SATURDAY MORNING. WHILE THERE IS STILL POTENTIAL WINTRY WEATHER
EARLY NEXT WEEK, THERE HAS BEEN LITTLE CONVERGENCE IN MODEL
SOLUTIONS.
KEY MESSAGES
-1) A WARMING TREND WILL TAKE PLACE THROUGH SATURDAY WITH
POTENTIAL FOR MORNING FOG.
-2) A SLIGHT WINTER STORM THREAT EXISTS MONDAY INTO TUESDAY.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1...A WARMING TREND WILL TAKE PLACE THROUGH SATURDAY
WITH POTENTIAL FOR MORNING FOG.
WITH THE FRONTAL ZONE SETTLED TO THE SOUTH, HIGH PRESSURE IS
BUILDING ACROSS THE AREA THIS MORNING. HOWEVER, MOISTENED LOW
LEVELS REMAIN IN PLACE WITH CALM WINDS. THUS FOG HAS DEVELOPED,
SOME LOCALLY DENSE. SO FAR, THE DENSE FOG HAS APPEARED PATCHY,
WITH MOST AIRPORT OBS WAFFLING IN VISIBILITY. A PATCH OF MID
LEVEL CLOUDS IS ALSO ENTERING THE AREA, WHICH COULD DISRUPT THE
RADIATIONAL COOLING RESPONSIBLE FOR FOG DEVELOPMENT. WILL
CONTINUE TO MONITOR THE NEED FOR A DENSE FOG ADVISORY.
SOME PATCHES OF CLOUDS COULD LINGER THROUGH THE MORNING,
ESPECIALLY IN SOUTHERN AREAS, BUT MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES SHOULD BE
FOUND AREAWIDE BY THIS AFTERNOON. MOST LOCATIONS WILL SEE WARMER
TEMPERATURES COMPARED TO THURSDAY, WITH WIDESPREAD 50S IN THE
FORECAST.
THE SURFACE HIGH WILL SLIDE A LITTLE TO THE SOUTH AND EAST
TONIGHT, WHICH MAY RESULT IN MORE OF A SOUTHERLY GRADIENT.
HOWEVER, LIGHT WINDS AND MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES WILL STILL BE IN
PLACE. CURRENT MODEL GUIDANCE ISN'T QUITE AS ROBUST WITH THE
SIGNAL FOR FOG, BUT AT LEAST SOME PATCHY FOG COULD DEVELOP
AGAIN.
WARM ADVECTION WILL BE MAXIMIZED SATURDAY AS THE HIGH DEPARTS
AND LOW PRESSURE PASSES WELL TO THE NORTH IN QUEBEC. WHILE THERE
IS SOME UNCERTAINTY WITH HOW QUICKLY THE TRAILING COLD FRONT
MAKES IT INTO THE AREA, THE DAYTIME SHOULD STILL FEATURE A FAIR
AMOUNT OF SUNSHINE. TEMPERATURES AT LEAST IN THE MID 50S CAN BE
EXPECTED, WITH MANY AREAS LIKELY MAKING IT INTO THE 60S.
KEY MESSAGE 2...A SLIGHT WINTER STORM THREAT EXISTS MONDAY INTO
TUESDAY.
THE COLD FRONT WILL BE SLOWLY SLIDING SOUTH THROUGH THE AREA ON
SUNDAY, WHICH COULD RESULT IN A GRADIENT OF TEMPERATURES. THE
FRONT WILL BE MOISTURE STARVED, AND MOST OF THE UPPER LEVEL
SUPPORT WILL HAVE PASSED TO THE NORTH. THUS THERE IS ONLY A LOW
CHANCE OF A FEW SHOWERS...RAIN IN THE LOWER ELEVATIONS AND
POSSIBLY MIXING WITH SNOW IN THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS.
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE GREAT LAKES EARLY NEXT WEEK
IN THE WAKE OF THE COLD FRONT, BRINGING COLDER TEMPERATURES TO
THE REGION. TO THE SOUTH, A FRONT REMAINS STALLED AS MOISTURE
SURGES NORTH TOWARDS THE FORECAST AREA. THE COMBINATION OF
OVERRUNNING MOISTURE AND COLD TEMPERATURES BRINGS THE CHANCE OF
WINTRY PRECIPITATION TO THE FORECAST AREA MONDAY. MARGINAL
TEMPERATURES IN THE 30S DURING THE DAY WILL DROP INTO THE MID TO
UPPER 20S OVERNIGHT. WITH MARGINAL TEMPERATURES DURING THE DAY,
PRECIPITATION TYPE REMAINS HIGHLY UNCERTAIN, WITH IMPACTS
SLIGHTLY MORE PROBABLE IN HIGHER ELEVATIONS. A COUPLE PERIODS
OF SNOW AND/OR WINTRY MIX/ICE ARE POSSIBLE MONDAY INTO TUESDAY.
LOW CONFIDENCE CONTINUES, AS THE EURO, GFS, AND CANADIAN
ENSEMBLE ARE LARGELY UNALIGNED IN TIMING AND IMPACTS. WITH THE
EVENT BEING 4 DAYS OUT, UNCERTAINTY REMAINS HIGH. WE WILL
CONTINUE TO MONITOR THE FORECAST AS IT GETS CLOSER.
LOOKING AHEAD, A WARMING TREND SHOULD OCCUR WEDNESDAY INTO
THURSDAY AS THE COLD AIR DAMMING HIGH PROGRESSES OFFSHORE.
HOWEVER, RAIN CHANCES DON'T TOTALLY GO AWAY AS THE FRONTAL ZONE
MAY WAFFLE BACK AND FORTH AS THE UPPER LEVEL PATTERN REMAINS
ZONAL ACROSS THE MID ATLANTIC.
AVIATION /08Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/
A CHALLENGING VISIBILITY FORECAST THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS AS
FOG HAS DEVELOPED IN A MOIST LOW LEVEL AIRMASS WITH LIGHT WINDS.
FROM WEBCAMS, FOG APPEARS SHALLOW AND PATCHY IN MOST PLACES, BUT
VISIBILITIES ARE OCCASIONALLY DROPPING TO 1/4SM OR LESS. ANY
TERMINAL COULD BE SUSCEPTIBLE TO BRIEF DENSE FOG EXCEPT PERHAPS
DCA. HOWEVER, SOME OF THE FOG COULD ENCROACH NEARBY (E.G. FOGGY
BOTTOM AREA). BESIDES VERTICAL VISIBILITY ISSUES IN FOG, MVFR
CEILINGS MAY ALSO AFFECT CHO THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS.
VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD RETURN BY MIDDAY, WITH LIGHT SOUTH TO
SOUTHEAST WINDS. SOME FOG COULD FORM AGAIN TONIGHT INTO SATURDAY
MORNING, BUT AT THE MOMENT COMPUTER GUIDANCE IS MORE LIMITED IN
COVERAGE. VFR CONDITIONS WITH LIGHT SOUTH WINDS ARE EXPECTED
SATURDAY.
A COLD FRONT WILL SLOWLY SLIDE INTO THE AREA SATURDAY NIGHT AND
SUNDAY. A PERIOD OF SUB-VFR CEILINGS IS POSSIBLE, BUT
PRECIPITATION CHANCES ARE LOW. NORTHWEST WINDS COULD GUST TO
AROUND 20 KT IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT.
SUB-VFR CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE MONDAY AND TUESDAY. SOME
PRECIPITATION, INCLUDING SNOW AND FREEZING RAIN, COULD OCCUR.
HOWEVER, CONFIDENCE IN DETAILS REMAINS VERY LOW AT THIS TIME.
MARINE
HIGH PRESSURE WILL PROVIDE LIGHT WINDS THROUGH SATURDAY,
GENERALLY SOUTH OR SOUTHEAST IN DIRECTION. SOME PATCHY FOG IS
POSSIBLE THIS MORNING, ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE NORTHERN BAY.
A COLD FRONT WILL PUSH INTO THE AREA SATURDAY NIGHT OR SUNDAY.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES MAY BE NEEDED IN GUSTY NORTHWESTERLY FLOW
IN ITS WAKE. THESE WINDS SHOULD EVENTUALLY SUBSIDE MONDAY. IF
THE FRONT CAN LIFT BACK NORTH TUESDAY, WINDS WILL TURN
SOUTHERLY.
LWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
DC...NONE.
MD...NONE.
VA...NONE.
WV...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
DISCUSSION...ADS/AVS
AVIATION...ADS/AVS
MARINE...ADS/AVS
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