334
FXUS61 KLWX 220246
AFDLWX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC
946 PM EST FRI FEB 21 2025
SYNOPSIS
HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO BUILD IN FROM THE WEST THROUGH THE
WEEKEND, BRINGING DRY CONDITIONS ALONG WITH A GRADUAL WARMUP.
THIS HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVES OFFSHORE ON MONDAY. A COLD FRONT
MAY PUSH THROUGH THE REGION ON TUESDAY, BRINGING THE NEXT
CHANCE FOR PRECIPITATION.
NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SATURDAY MORNING/
EVENING UPDATE...
CLEAR SKIES ARE EXPECTED TONIGHT FOR AREAS EAST OF THE
MOUNTAINS, AND WINDS WILL GRADUALLY DIMINISH. TEMPERATURES ARE
ON TRACK TO REACH LOWS IN THE TEENS AND LOW 20S ACROSS THE AREA.
WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO PERSIST IN THE MOUNTAINS, HOWEVER,
RESULTING IN SINGLE DIGIT WIND CHILLS FOR MUCH OF THE HIGHER
ELEVATIONS, AND COULD DROP TO OR BELOW ZERO IN SPOTS.
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FOLLOWS...
FOR TONIGHT, VERY COLD ONCE AGAIN, WITH MOST AIR TEMPERATURES
BELOW 10 DEG OUT ALONG THE ALLEGHENY FRONT AND TEENS AND 20S
FURTHER EAST. ULTIMATELY, WITH INCREASED WINDS COUPLED WITH
COLDER TEMPERATURES, WIND CHILLS WILL BE IN THE TEENS AND 20S
FOR MOST WITH EVEN COLDER VALUES UP ALONG THE ALLEGHENY FRONT.
THOUGH THERE ARE NO COLD WEATHER HEADLINES UP, IT WILL BE VERY
UNCOMFORTABLE OUT THERE TONIGHT, SO DRESS IN LAYERS IF YOU MUST
GO OUTSIDE, AND TRY TO LIMIT YOUR TIME OUTDOORS IF AT ALL
POSSIBLE.
SHORT TERM /6 AM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/
ABUNDANT SUNSHINE AND DRY CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE
WEEKEND. A GRADUAL WARMUP IS EXPECTED AS HIGH PRESSURE PUSHES
OVERHEAD, AND EVENTUALLY BEGINS TO PUSH OFFSHORE BY LATE SUNDAY.
HIGHS ON SATURDAY WILL BE IN THE LOW TO MID 40S FOR THE LOWER
ELEVATIONS WITH LOW TO MID 30S FOR THE ALLEGHENY FRONT.
NORTHWEST WINDS EARLY SATURDAY WILL TURN MORE SOUTHERLY HEADING
LATER INTO THE DAY AND FURTHER INTO SUNDAY. HIGHS ON SUNDAY WILL
BEGIN APPROACHING MORE NORMAL RANGES FOR MID TO LATE FEBRUARY,
WITH MID TO UPPER 40S TO LOW 50S ACROSS THE LOWER ELEVATIONS AND
LOW TO MID 30S ALONG THE ALLEGHENIES. OVERNIGHT LOWS SUNDAY
NIGHT WILL FALL INTO THE MID TO UPPER 20S FOR MOST AREAS.
LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/
HIGH PRESSURE ALONG THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST WILL PROVIDE A SOUTHERLY
FLOW THAT WILL HELP TO MODIFY TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE REGION TO 7 TO
10 DEGREES ABOVE AVERAGE MONDAY. DRY CONDITIONS SHOULD ENSUE.
A POTENT DISTURBANCE AND ITS ASSOCIATED SURFACE COLD FRONT WILL PUSH
TOWARD OUR REGION ON TUESDAY AND SHOULD SWEEP ACROSS TUESDAY
EVENING. MOISTURE COULD BE LIMITED AS WE MAY BE LOOKING AT A
SEPARATE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM NEAR THE SOUTHEAST U.S. THAT COULD ROB
THE DISTURBANCE AND FRONT OF ITS POTENTIAL MOISTURE. MORE LIKELY
THAT ANY PRECIPITATION THAT FALLS IN OUR REGION COULD BE LIGHT,
ISOLATED AND IN THE FORM OF RAIN. THERE COULD BE SOME UPSLOPE RAIN
OR SNOW IN THE HIGHEST APPALACHIANS. TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE EVEN
WARMER THAN MONDAY WITH HIGHS NEAR 60 OR IN THE LOWER 60S.
AN AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN BEHIND THE PASSING
DISTURBANCE AND COLD FRONT ON WEDNESDAY, BEFORE MOVING EAST
WEDNESDAY NIGHT. DRY AND SLIGHTLY COOLER CONDITIONS WILL BE
POSSIBLE. HOW MUCH COOLER DEPENDS ON THE WIND DIRECTION AND SPEED,
WHETHER IT IS MORE NORTHERLY OR WESTERLY. A WESTERLY COMPONENT WOULD
PROVIDE A DOWNSLOPING WARMING EFFECT.
THE NEXT LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM COULD APPROACH THE REGION ON THURSDAY
AND BRING BETTER CHANCES OF RAIN WITH BETTER CHANCES OF ELEVATED
RAIN OR SNOW. THERE IS A DISCREPANCY NOTED BETWEEN THE EURO AND THE
GFS IN TERMS OF THURSDAY. THE GFS IS FASTER WITH THE LOW AND TRIES
TO BRING IT ACROSS LATE WEDNESDAY. THE EURO DOESN'T WANT TO BRING IT
ACROSS UNTIL LATE THURSDAY. AS FOR THE BETTER SOLUTION, USING
MULTIPLE MODELS, WE WILL LEAN TOWARD A THURSDAY LOW PRESSURE
PASSAGE. HIGH TEMPERATURES SHOULD STILL BE MILD FOR LATE
FEBRUARY.
AVIATION /03Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TODAY, WITH 20 TO 30 KNOT GUSTS
PERSISTING THROUGH THE EARLY EVENING HOURS. LIGHTER WINDS PREVAIL
OUT OF THE SOUTH ON SATURDAY AND INTO SUNDAY WITH INCREASING CLOUDS
LATER IN THE DAY ON SUNDAY.
VFR CONDITIONS MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT. THERE COULD BE A FEW
BRIEF POCKETS OF LIGHT RAIN IN SOME AREAS THAT COULD LOWER CEILINGS
BUT HARD TO TELL WHICH TERMINALS WOULD ENCOUNTER THE RAIN AND WHICH
ONES WOULD NOT. WINDS SOUTH 5 TO 10 KNOTS MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT.
WINDS SOUTHWEST SHIFTING NORTHWEST 5 TO 10 KNOTS TUESDAY AND TUESDAY
NIGHT.
MARINE
SCA WINDS WILL LIKELY CONTINUE THROUGH THE EARLY EVENING HOURS.
WINDS GENERALLY DIMINISH ON SATURDAY WITH SUB-SCA GUSTS
EXPECTED. SOME SOUTHERLY CHANNELING IS POSSIBLE IN THE MIDDLE
CHESAPEAKE BAY SATURDAY NIGHT. LIGHT WINDS EXPECTED SUNDAY WITH
SUB-SCA GUSTS CONTINUING HEADING INTO THE WORK-WEEK.
NO MARINE HAZARDS MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT. WINDS SOUTH
5 TO 10 KNOTS MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT. WINDS SOUTHWEST AROUND
10 KNOTS TUESDAY SHIFTING NORTHWEST TUESDAY NIGHT.
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING
LOW WATER LEVELS CONTINUE OWING TO THE PERSISTENT NORTHWESTERLY
WINDS ACROSS THE WATERS, WITH TIDAL ANOMALIES AT AROUND ONE FOOT
BELOW NORMAL. MARINE WEATHER STATEMENTS MAY BE NEEDED FOR THE
NEXT LOW TIDE CYCLE OR TWO IF LEVELS ARE EXPECTED TO DROP CLOSER
TO TWO FEET BELOW, BUT FOR NOW THAT DOES NOT APPEAR TO BE THE
CASE. WATER LEVELS SHOULD BEGIN TO REBOUND SATURDAY EVENING
INTO SUNDAY AS WINDS SHIFT TO SOUTHERLY.
LWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
DC...NONE.
MD...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 1 AM EST SATURDAY FOR MDZ008.
VA...NONE.
WV...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 1 AM EST SATURDAY FOR ANZ530-531-
539.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 5 AM EST SATURDAY FOR ANZ532>534-
537-540-541-543.
SYNOPSIS...CJL
NEAR TERM...CJL/CAS
SHORT TERM...CJL
LONG TERM...KLW
AVIATION...KLW/CJL
MARINE...KLW/CJL
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...CJL
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