262
FXUS61 KLWX 300737
AFDLWX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC
337 AM EDT SAT MAY 30 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
NO NOTABLE CHANGES WERE MADE TO THE FORECAST WITH THIS UPDATE.
KEY MESSAGES
- 1) DRY AND SEASONABLE TO END THE WEEK. SLIGHTLY COOLER AND
CONTINUED DRY DURING THE WEEKEND.
- 2) NEAR TO BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES FOR THE EARLY TO
MIDDLE PORTIONS OF NEXT WEEK WITH LOW RAIN CHANCES.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1...DRY AND SEASONABLE TO END THE WEEK. SLIGHTLY
COOLER AND CONTINUED DRY DURING THE WEEKEND.
AN UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL MOVE BY TO THE NORTH TODAY INTO SUNDAY,
BRINGING A DRY COLD FRONT SOUTHWARD THROUGH THE REGION. THIS
FRONT WILL LIKELY ONLY BRING SOME ADDITIONAL CLOUDS AND A DECENT
PUSH OF NORTHERLY WINDS TODAY, BUT NO RAINFALL. HIGHS TODAY WILL
ONLY REACH THE LOW TO MID 70S (60S MOUNTAINS) AND OVERNIGHT
LOWS IN THE 40S AND 50S. WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED IF COLDER
SHELTERED HIGH ELEVATION VALLEYS HAVE SOME PATCHY FROST TONIGHT.
SUNDAY WILL BE SIMILAR IN TERMS OF TEMPERATURES DURING THE DAY,
BUT ABOUT 5 DEGREES WARMER SUNDAY NIGHT.
WARMER TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST FOR MONDAY, BUT ONLY BY ABOUT 5
DEGREES AREAWIDE. ANOTHER DRY FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL PUSH THROUGH
DURING THE DAY ON MONDAY, THIS ONE A BIT WEAKER THAN THE
PREVIOUS FRONT. AGAIN, ONLY NOTABLE CHANGE WILL BE A WIND SHIFT,
WITH NO PRECIPITATION IN THE FORECAST AT THIS TIME.
KEY MESSAGE 2...NEAR TO BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES FOR THE EARLY TO
MIDDLE PORTIONS OF NEXT WEEK WITH LOW RAIN CHANCES.
THE UPPER LEVEL LOW BRINGING CLOUDS EARLY ON IN THE WEEK WILL START
TO TRANSITION OFFSHORE ON TUESDAY AND GOING INTO WEDNESDAY. SOME
MOISTURE COULD LINGER IN THE REGION DURING THIS TIME, WITH A FEW POP-
UP SHOWERS POSSIBLE, BUT DRY AIR ALOFT WILL LIKELY PREVENT ANYTHING
WIDESPREAD AT THIS TIME. THE TIMING OF THIS SYSTEM STILL DIFFERS A
BIT IN MODEL GUIDANCE, BUT GENERAL AGREEMENT SHOWS SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE MOVING INTO THE REGION BY WEDNESDAY AND GOING INTO
THURSDAY. ADDITIONAL DRY AIR MOVES INTO THE AREA AT THIS TIME,
MINIMIZING RAIN CHANCES. AS THIS SURFACE HIGH TRACKS EAST,
TEMPERATURES COULD START TO CREEP UP A BIT. BEHIND IT, A COLD FRONT
COULD APPROACH FROM THE NORTHWEST AT THE START OF NEXT WEEKEND.
OVERALL, EXPECT PERSISTENT MODERATE TEMPERATURES AND LOW RAIN
CHANCES THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK, WITH TEMPERATURES TRENDING
UPWARD BY FRIDAY.
AVIATION /07Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
A COLD FRONT WILL BRING A SURGE OF NORTHWEST WINDS (GUSTING
20-25 KNOTS) THIS AFTERNOON, BUT NO RESTRICTIONS FROM VSBYS OR CIGS
ARE EXPECTED.
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS TERMINALS MONDAY THROUGH
WEDNESDAY, WITH WINDS GENERALLY FLOWING NORTH TO NORTHWEST.
MARINE
A COLD FRONT WILL PUSH THROUGH THIS MORNING, WITH AN SCA IN
EFFECT THROUGH LATE THIS EVENING IN NORTHERLY FLOW.
NORTHWEST WINDS SUNDAY MORNING BECOME SOUTHERLY SUNDAY AFTERNOON,
AND SHOULD REMAIN WELL BELOW SCA CRITERIA.
ANOTHER FRONT WILL PUSH THROUGH ON MONDAY, TURNING WINDS OUT OF
THE NORTH ONCE AGAIN. HOWEVER, THEY SHOULD BE WEAKER THAN THE
CURRENT FRONT, SO SCAS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.
WINDS FLOW PRIMARILY NORTHERLY TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY. MARGINAL SCA
CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE TOWARDS THE SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE BAY ON
TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AS LOW PRESSURE MEANDERS OFFSHORE
DURING THEN. OTHERWISE, GUSTS RANGE 5-10 KNOTS.
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING
TIDAL ANOMALIES REMAIN ELEVATED THIS MORNING AHEAD OF AN
APPROACHING COLD FRONT. NO FLOODING IS FORECAST, BUT ANNAPOLIS
COULD BE CLOSE WITH THE ONGOING HIGH TIDE.
A RETURN OF SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL BRING ANOTHER SURGE SUNDAY
NIGHT. GUIDANCE INDICATES A GREATER CHANCE OF MINOR FLOODING
DURING THIS PERIOD, ESPECIALLY IN THE NORTHERN PORTION OF THE
CHESAPEAKE BAY.
LWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
DC...NONE.
MD...NONE.
VA...NONE.
WV...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR ANZ530-
531-538-539.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 11 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR ANZ532-
533-540-541.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 11 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR ANZ534-
537-543.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR ANZ535-
536-542.
DISCUSSION...CJL/SRT
AVIATION...CJL/SRT
MARINE...CJL/SRT
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