142
FXUS61 KLWX 111456
AFDLWX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC
1056 AM EDT MON MAY 11 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY EXPANDED TO ALL WATERS THIS MORNING.
NORTHERN EDGE OF TODAY'S RAIN IS BETTER RESOLVED. COVERAGE OF
RAIN IS UNCERTAIN WEDNESDAY-WEDNESDAY NIGHT.
KEY MESSAGES
1) COOLER WITH LIGHT RAIN FOR SOUTHERN AREAS TODAY, FOLLOWED BY
A LATE SEASON FROST/FREEZE WEST OF THE BLUE RIDGE TONIGHT.
2) GUSTY THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE WEDNESDAY.
3) AFTER ANOTHER COOL DOWN, ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES RETURN FOR
THE WEEKEND.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1...COOLER WITH LIGHT RAIN FOR SOUTHERN AREAS TODAY,
FOLLOWED BY A LATE SEASON FROST/FREEZE WEST OF THE BLUE RIDGE
TONIGHT.
THE EARLIER COLD FRONT HAS NOW PUSHED ACROSS THE VIRGINIA-NORTH
CAROLINA STATE LINE. POST-FRONTAL NORTHERLIES ARE EVIDENT OVER
THE ENTIRE REGION AMIDST A THICK DECK OF LOW/MID CLOUDS.
MOISTURE CONTINUES TO OVERRUN THIS AIR MASS WHICH HAS MAINTAINED
A STEADY AREA OF LIGHT RAINFALL. THE LATEST MID-ATLANTIC RADAR
MOSAIC SHOWS SUCH PRECIPITATION FALLING FROM THE BALTIMORE/D.C.
METROS SOUTHWARD, AS WELL AS ALONG AND SOUTH OF I-66 IN
VIRGINIA. AMOUNTS REMAIN LIGHT WITH HOURLY TOTALS TOPPING OUT
AROUND 0.05 INCHES. BASED ON THE LATEST TRENDS, LOCATIONS FROM
CENTRAL VIRGINIA TO SOUTHERN MARYLAND SHOULD SEE THIS ACTIVITY
PERSIST INTO THE EARLY AFTERNOON BEFORE THE RAINFALL SHIFTS TO
THE SOUTH.
BELOW AVERAGE TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TODAY BETWEEN COLD
ADVECTION AND CLOUDS. PLACES IN WESTERN MARYLAND AND EASTERN
WEST VIRGINIA MAY SEE SOME SUN THIS AFTERNOON WHICH WILL ALLOW
FOR THE WARMEST READINGS IN THE UPPER 60S. HOWEVER, THIS COULD
EVEN BE A TAD OPTIMISTIC BASED ON HOW FAR WEST THE THICK CLOUDS
EXTEND ON SATELLITE IMAGERY. ADDITIONALLY, HAVE LOWERED
TEMPERATURES BY A FEW DEGREES ACROSS MOST LOCATIONS.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL SETTLE SOUTHWARD FROM THE GREAT LAKES BY
TUESDAY MORNING. THE GRADIENT SHOULD BE WEAK ENOUGH THAT VALLEYS
WEST OF THE BLUE RIDGE DECOUPLE. THE EXTENT OF NEAR TO BELOW
FREEZING DEW POINTS IS A LITTLE UNCERTAIN, WITH THE HIGHEST
CONFIDENCE IN THE ALLEGHENY MOUNTAINS. A FREEZE WATCH REMAINS IN
EFFECT FOR THESE AREAS.
THE HIGH WILL PUSH SOUTHEAST OF THE AREA TUESDAY AFTERNOON, ALLOWING
FOR RETURN FLOW AND PLENTY OF SUN. HOWEVER, HIGH TEMPERATURES
WILL LIKELY STILL BE SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF
YEAR.
KEY MESSAGE 2...GUSTY THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE WEDNESDAY.
LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES TUESDAY NIGHT
INTO WEDNESDAY. A WARM FRONT WILL LIFT NORTH OF THE AREA BY
WEDNESDAY MORNING, WITH GUSTY SOUTHERLY WINDS SUSTAINING
SEASONABLE CONDITIONS THROUGH THE DAY. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
ARE EXPECTED AHEAD OF THE TRAILING COLD FRONT WHICH WILL REACH
THE AREA WEDNESDAY NIGHT. TIMING AND COVERAGE REMAIN A BIT
UNCERTAIN, ALTHOUGH AREAS WEST OF THE BLUE RIDGE MAY SEE
SLIGHTLY GREATER INSTABILITY AND A GREATER CHANCE OF CONVECTION
OCCURRING DURING AFTERNOON HEATING. THAT SAID, MUCH LIKE RECENT
FRONTS, INSTABILITY WILL BE LACKING AS DEW POINTS STRUGGLE INTO
THE 50S WITH RELATIVELY POOR MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES. GIVEN THE
WIND FIELDS IN PLACE, ANY STRONGER THUNDERSTORMS THAT DO DEVELOP
COULD PRODUCE GUSTY WINDS, AND SPC HAS HIGHLIGHTED WESTERN
PORTIONS OF THE AREA IN A MARGINAL/LEVEL 1 RISK.
KEY MESSAGE 3...AFTER ANOTHER COOL DOWN, ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPERATURES RETURN FOR THE WEEKEND.
THE TROUGH RESPONSIBLE FOR WEDNESDAY NIGHT'S COLD FRONT WILL
CLOSE OFF INTO A LOW THAT WILL MOVE EASTWARD ACROSS THE MID
ATLANTIC AND NEW ENGLAND THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY. THE HIGHEST
CHANCE OF RAIN SHOWERS WILL BE IN UPSLOPE AREAS ALONG THE
ALLEGHENIES, BUT AT LEAST SOME ISOLATED SHOWERS COULD OCCUR
ELSEWHERE, ESPECIALLY DURING PEAK HEATING. BELOW NORMAL
TEMPERATURES CAN BE EXPECTED THURSDAY, RISING CLOSER TO NORMAL
FRIDAY.
NEXT WEEKEND, HIGH PRESSURE QUICKLY CROSSES THE AREA AND A
WARMER AIRMASS WILL ADVECT INTO THE AREA. EXPECT HIGH
TEMPERATURES INTO THE 80S FOR MANY AREAS BOTH DAYS. THE UPPER
LEVEL PATTERN IS A LITTLE MORE UNCERTAIN, BUT WIDESPREAD RAIN IS
UNLIKELY.
AVIATION /14Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/
A FRONTAL ZONE WILL REMAIN SOUTH OF THE REGION TODAY RESULTING
IN GENERALLY LIGHT NORTHEAST WINDS. RAIN WILL CONTINUE AT KCHO
FOR MUCH OF THE MORNING HOURS BEFORE DEPARTING IN THE AFTERNOON.
CEILINGS WILL EVENTUALLY DROP TO MVFR FOR A FEW HOURS, AND
VISIBILITY COULD DROP AT TIMES AS WELL. THE NORTHERN EDGE OF
SHOWERS WILL BE NEAR IAD/DCA/BWI/MTN, BUT FLIGHT CONDITIONS WILL
LIKELY REMAIN VFR AS CEILINGS STAY AROUND 6,000-8,000 FEET.
CEILINGS SHOULD CLEAR OUT BY THIS EVENING.
VFR CONDITIONS WITH LIGHT WINDS EXPECTED TUESDAY AND TUESDAY
NIGHT. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT AS A COLD FRONT CROSSES.
SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL ALSO BE GUSTY WEDNESDAY. CEILINGS COULD
DROP TO MVFR WEDNESDAY NIGHT.
UPPER LEVEL LOW MAY PRODUCE A FEW SHOWERS THURSDAY AND FRIDAY
WITH AT LEAST SOME POTENTIAL FOR MVFR CEILINGS, ESPECIALLY AT
MRB. GUSTY NW WINDS ARE EXPECTED.
MARINE
WHILE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES CONTINUE UNTIL NOON, THE CURRENT
MARINE TRENDS SUGGEST THIS IS WINDING DOWN A BIT EARLIER.
HOWEVER, THE EXCEPTION MAY BE OVER THE WIDE WATERS OF THE MID-
CHESAPEAKE BAY WHERE CURRENT ADVISORIES COULD BE EXTENDED INTO
THE AFTERNOON. THIS IS IN RESPONSE TO A CLOSER PROXIMITY TO LOW
PRESSURE TO THE SOUTHEAST.
SOUTHERLY FLOW INCREASES TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY
EVENING AS A WARM FRONT LIFTS NORTH, WITH SCAS LIKELY. A FEW
SMWS MAY ALSO BE NEEDED WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON WITH ANY STRONGER
THUNDERSTORMS THAT MAY DEVELOP IN ADVANCE OF A COLD FRONT.
A PERIOD OF SCA CONDITIONS IN NORTHWEST FLOW IS LIKELY IN THE
WAKE OF THE COLD FRONT THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY.
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING
EXPECT A GRADUAL UPTICK IN WATER LEVELS AHEAD OF THE MID-WEEK
SYSTEM. THE INFLUENCE OF INCREASING SOUTHERLIES WILL CARRY THE
TIDAL FORECAST TO ACTION AT ANNAPOLIS DURING TIMES OF HIGH TIDE.
THE STEVENS ENSEMBLE SHOWS THE POTENTIAL FOR MINOR TIDAL
FLOODING BY EARLY THURSDAY. EXPECT ANOMALIES TO FALL THEREAFTER
AS WINDS SHIFT TO NORTHWESTERLY.
LWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
DC...NONE.
MD...FREEZE WATCH FROM LATE TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING FOR
MDZ501-509-510.
VA...FREEZE WATCH FROM LATE TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING FOR
VAZ503-504.
WV...FREEZE WATCH FROM LATE TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING FOR
WVZ501-503-505-506.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL NOON EDT TODAY FOR ANZ531>534-536-
537-539>543.
DISCUSSION...ADS/BRO
AVIATION...ADS/BRO/SRT
MARINE...ADS/BRO/SRT
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