862
FXUS61 KLWX 080127
AFDLWX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC
927 PM EDT MON SEP 7 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES WERE MADE TO THIS FORECAST PACKAGE.
KEY MESSAGES
- 1) DRY THROUGH MID WEEK.
- 2) SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES RETURN THURSDAY.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1...DRY THROUGH MID WEEK.
THE LATEST SURFACE ANALYSIS PAINTS A QUIET PICTURE OVER THE AREA
WITH SPRAWLING HIGH PRESSURE EXTENDING OVER THE GREAT LAKES INTO
THE MID-ATLANTIC STATES. CONDITIONS REMAIN TRANQUIL THIS EVENING
WITH JUST SOME PASSING MID TO HIGH CLOUDS DROPPING DOWN FROM
THE UPPER MID-ATLANTIC. THE DRY NATURE OF THE AIR MASS WILL
SUPPORT AMPLE COOLING INTO THE NIGHT.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL PERSIST OVER THE MID-ATLANTIC THROUGH WEDNESDAY
BEFORE GRADUALLY MOVING OFFSHORE. LARGE SCALE SUBSIDENCE AND
DRY AIR LEAD TO A PRECIPITATION-FREE FORECAST WITH TEMPERATURES
RISING TO SEVERAL DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL AS THE HIGH PULLS
OFFSHORE. THIS LEADS TO HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE MID TO UPPER
80S TUESDAY, PERHAPS NEAR 90 WEDNESDAY (SLIGHTLY COOLER IN THE
MOUNTAINS). LOW TEMPERATURES (AND DEW POINTS) WILL GENERALLY BE
IN THE 50S AND 60S DURING THIS TIME. SOME RIVER VALLEY FOG IS
LIKELY EACH MORNING.
KEY MESSAGE 2...SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES RETURN THURSDAY.
THE UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE WILL BEGIN TO FLATTEN OUT WEDNESDAY BEFORE
BREAKING DOWN AND PUSHING SOUTH AND EAST INTO THURSDAY. SEVERAL
PIECES OF UPPER-LEVEL ENERGY ROTATING AROUND AN UPPER LOW
CENTERED OVER THE HUDSON BAY WILL SLOWLY PUSH A COLD FRONT SOUTH
TOWARDS OUR REGION BY THURSDAY. AT THE SURFACE, HIGH PRESSURE
PUSHING OFFSHORE WILL BRING INCREASINGLY WARM AND HUMID
CONDITIONS TO THE AREA, WITH HIGHS IN THE 80S TO NEAR 90 WITH
DEW POINTS IN THE UPPER 60S TO LOW 70S, WITH THE HIGHEST VALUES
BEING THURSDAY.
MODEL GUIDANCE OVER THE PAST 24 HOURS HAS COME INTO BETTER AGREEMENT
IN REGARDS TO THE PROGRESSION OF THE FRONT ON THURSDAY, AS WELL AS
THE UPPER-LEVEL PATTERN IN ASSOCIATION WITH IT. THE FRONT
REALLY LOOKS LIKE IT WILL FLATTEN OUT AS IT MOVES SOUTHWARD, AND
REALLY LOSES THE UPPER-LEVEL SUPPORT. THE TIMING OF PEAK
HEATING AND THE HIGHEST SHEAR JUST DOESN'T LOOK TO LINE UP AT
THIS POINT. THERE MAY BE SOME JET-INDUCED SHOWERS AND STORMS
LATE THURSDAY AS WE MOVE INTO THE RIGHT ENTRANCE OF THE UPPER
JET CENTERED OVER NEW ENGLAND, BUT NOT NECESSARILY EXPECTING
THOSE TO BE SEVERE AT THAT POINT, AS THE FRONT SHOULD BE LARGELY
THROUGH THE REGION. AT THIS POINT, THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT
LOOKS VERY LIMITED, BUT ANY STORM THAT DEVELOPS ON THE WARM SIDE
OF THE BOUNDARY COULD BRING SOME GUSTY WINDS ALONG WITH IT, BUT
THE LACK OF A SUBSTANTIAL WIND FIELD WILL REALLY MAKE THAT MORE
DIFFICULT WITH SOUTHWARD EXTENT.
AS THIS COLD FRONT TRANSITIONS OFFSHORE FRIDAY, TEMPS DROP AGAIN
AND CONDITIONS BECOME MUCH DRIER HEADING INTO THE START OF THE
WEEKEND AS HIGH PRESSURE MOVES IN OVERHEAD. THE NEXT SYSTEM MAY
APPROACH BY LATE NEXT WEEKEND.
AVIATION /00Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PREVAIL THROUGH THE END OF THE
WEEK, WITH TWO EXCEPTIONS. EARLY MORNING RIVER VALLEY FOG COULD
AFFECT MAINLY KCHO/KMRB EACH DAY ROUGHLY 08Z-13Z. THEN, SOME
SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY COULD BRING BRIEF RESTRICTIONS
ON THURSDAY (MAINLY IN THE AFTERNOON AND/OR EVENING). LIGHT NE
WINDS TODAY BECOME E TO S TONIGHT INTO TUESDAY, THEN REMAIN S
THROUGH THURSDAY UNTIL A COLD FRONT BRINGS A SHIFT TO W/NW.
MARINE
HIGH PRESSURE WILL RESULT IN LIGHT NORTHEAST WINDS BECOMING
SOUTH THROUGH TUESDAY. WINDS MAY INCREASE BRIEFLY EARLY
WEDNESDAY MORNING AS THE HIGH SHIFTS OFFSHORE, BUT ARE MORE
LIKELY TO INCREASE IN SOUTHERLY CHANNELING WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON
INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT. WINDS SHIFT TO THE WEST AND NORTHWEST AND
COULD REMAIN GUSTY THURSDAY AS A COLD FRONT CROSSES, POSSIBLY
BRINGING A FEW SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. WINDS SHOULD BECOME
LIGHTER HEADING INTO FRIDAY.
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING
TIDE LEVELS REMAIN AROUND 1 TO 1.25 FEET ABOVE NORMAL. WITH
LIGHT NORTHEAST WINDS BECOMING SOUTHERLY, TIDE LEVELS ARE LIKELY
TO REMAIN RELATIVELY STEADY AROUND 1 FOOT ABOVE ASTRONOMICAL
NORMS THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK. THE HIGHER OF THE TWO
DIURNAL TIDES IS IN THE LATER NIGHT/EARLY MORNING PERIOD, DURING
WHICH TIME ANNAPOLIS IS MOST LIKELY TO HIT MINOR FLOOD STAGE
THROUGH EARLY THURSDAY PRIOR TO A COLD FRONT SHIFTING WINDS TO
THE WEST. OTHER SITES LIKE HAVRE DE GRACE, BOWLEY'S QUARTERS,
AND ALEXANDRIA COULD APPROACH MINOR FLOOD AT TIMES, AS WELL.
LWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
DC...NONE.
MD...COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EDT TUESDAY FOR MDZ014.
VA...NONE.
WV...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
DISCUSSION...BRO/DHOF/CJL
AVIATION...DHOF/CJL
MARINE...DHOF/CJL
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...LWX
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