229
FXUS61 KLWX 270127
AFDLWX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC
827 PM EST WED NOV 26 2025
SYNOPSIS
A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS FROM WEST TO EAST THIS MORNING. A
SECOND STRONGER COLD FRONT WILL FOLLOW THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING. LOW PRESSURE WILL LINGER OVER SOUTHEASTERN CANADA WHILE
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS ACROSS THE MIDWEST AND TENNESSEE VALLEY
THROUGH FRIDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE OVERHEAD SATURDAY, THEN
MOVE OFFSHORE SUNDAY INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK AS THE NEXT SYSTEM
APPROACHES FROM THE WEST.
NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THURSDAY MORNING/
THE PRIMARY COLD FRONT IS PUSHING THROUGH SOUTHERN MARYLAND THIS
EVENING, WITH SHOWERS PUSHING ONTO THE EASTERN SHORE. SOME
INITIALLY GUSTY WINDS ARE OCCURRING WITH FRONTAL PASSAGE, BUT
THEN THERE HAS BEEN A BIT OF A LULL. A SECONDARY SURGE APPEARS
TO BE OCCURRING WITH RAPID PRESSURE RISES, AND (PERHAPS
COINCIDENTALLY) ROUGHLY WHERE SURFACE DEW POINTS DROP INTO THE
20S, NOW REACHING THE NORTHERN BLUE RIDGE AND CATOCTIN MOUNTAINS.
A STRATOCUMULUS SHIELD IS ACCOMPANYING THIS SURGE, BUT IT IS
TENDING TO BREAK UP IN THE DOWNSLOPE FLOW. IF MODEL FORECASTS
ARE CORRECT, PEAK WINDS WILL BE REACHING THE RIDGES OVER THE
NEXT SEVERAL HOURS.
BEHIND THE COLD FRONT, A SUBSTANTIAL AND LONG-LASTING COLD AIR
MASS WILL BE USHERED INTO THE REGION, ALONG WITH SOME VERY
STRONG WINDS. THE MOUNTAINS WILL SEE A PROLONGED PERIOD OF
STRONG WIND GUSTS, WHICH NECESSITATED A WIND ADVISORY WHICH WAS
ISSUED OVERNIGHT. SOME STRONG GUSTS ARE POSSIBLE IN BETWEEN THE
ALLEGHENIES AND BLUE RIDGE, ESPECIALLY ON THE RIDGES, THOUGH IT
DOES APPEAR MORE BRIEF (FOCUSED ON THE FIRST HALF OF THE NIGHT)
COMPARED TO THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS.
IN THE WAKE OF THE COLD FRONT TONIGHT, SOME UPSLOPE SNOW
SHOWERS/FLURRIES HAVE STARTED ALONG THE ALLEGHENIES. COULD SEE
A QUICK HALF INCH TO AN INCH OF ACCUMULATION OVERNIGHT IN
WESTERN GARRETT AND WESTERN GRANT COUNTIES ESPECIALLY.
TEMPERATURES WILL FALL BACK INTO THE 30S BY SUNRISE, 20S IN THE
HIGHER ELEVATIONS.
SHORT TERM /6 AM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/
MUCH COLDER AND BLUSTERY CONDITIONS FOR THANKSGIVING DAY, AS
HIGHS DROP WAY DOWN INTO THE 40S (20S IN THE MOUNTAINS). WITH
THE WINDS GUSTING AROUND 25 TO 35 MPH DURING THE DAY, WIND
CHILLS STRUGGLE TO GET OUT OF THE LOW 30S (SINGLE DIGITS TO TEENS
IN THE MOUNTAINS).
A DECENT UPSLOPE SNOW EVENT IS FORECAST THURSDAY NIGHT INTO
FRIDAY. A POWERFUL SHORTWAVE WILL PUSH INTO THE ALLEGHENY FRONT
LATE THURSDAY EVENING INTO FRIDAY. THIS SYSTEM MAY NOT HAVE THE
GREATEST CONNECTION TO MOISTURE FROM THE GREAT LAKES REGION,
BUT THERE SEEMS TO BE JUST ENOUGH TO AT LEAST GET SOME SNOW
SHOWERS ALONG/WEST OF THE ALLEGHENY FRONT. FORECAST SOUNDINGS
SHOW SOME CAPE WITHIN THE DGZ DURING THIS PERIOD AS WELL,
SUGGESTING THAT THIS COULD AT LEAST BRIEFLY BE SOMEWHAT
CONVECTIVE IN NATURE. ADDITIONALLY, TEMPERATURES WILL BE FALLING
INTO THE TEENS AND LOW 20S, THUS LEADING TO VERY HIGH SLRS.
WHILE QPF AMOUNTS ARE STILL VERY MUCH IN QUESTION, WHAT DOES
FALL SHOULD ACCUMULATE VERY EFFICIENTLY GIVEN THE ABOVE FACTORS.
PLANNING TO INCREASE SNOWFALL AMOUNTS DURING THIS PERIOD WITH
THE NEXT UPDATE. AS OF RIGHT NOW, SHOULD FALL SHORT OF ADVISORY
CRITERIA, PRIMARILY DUE TO THE AFOREMENTIONED WEAK MOISTURE
TRANSPORT OUT OF THE GREAT LAKES. SOMETHING IN THE 1 TO 3 INCH
BIN SEEMS REASONABLE AT THIS TIME. GUSTY WINDS DURING THIS TIME
COULD FURTHER COMPLICATE MATTERS FOR THOSE TRAVELING EARLY
FRIDAY MORNING, AS VISIBILITY COULD BE GREATLY REDUCED AS WELL.
THE STRONGEST WINDS WILL OCCUR ON FRIDAY WITHIN THE REINFORCING
SHOT OF CAA. EXPECT FREQUENT GUSTS TO 40 MPH. A WIND ADVISORY
WAS NOT CONSIDERED AT THIS TIME, AS CURRENT GUIDANCE SUPPORT
SUB-ADVISORY WINDS AT THIS TIME. HOWEVER, THE WINDS PAIRED WITH
HIGHS IN THE UPPER 30S TO LOW 40S WILL KEEP WIND CHILLS INTO THE
20S AND LOW 30S ALL DAY FOR THOSE OUTSIDE OF THE MOUNTAINS. FOR
THOSE IN THE MOUNTAINS, WIND CHILLS LIKELY STRUGGLE TO GET OUT
OF THE TEENS (AND EVEN NEAR OR BELOW 0 ON THE HIGHEST RIDGES).
WINDS BEGIN TO SUBSIDE LATE FRIDAY NIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE
STARTS BUILDING IN. COLD WITH LOWS IN THE TEENS AND LOW 20S,
LOW TEENS IN THE MOUNTAINS AND WIND CHILLS IN THE TEENS AND
SINGLE DIGITS RESPECTIVELY.
LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVERHEAD ON SATURDAY, BRINGING DRY
CONDITIONS AND LIGHTER WINDS. SKIES WILL BE MOSTLY SUNNY, BUT
TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN BELOW NORMAL WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 30S
AND LOWER 40S FOR MOST (UPPER 20S/LOW 30S IN THE MOUNTAINS).
WITH MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES TO START AND LIGHT WINDS, TEMPERATURES
SHOULD QUICKLY DROP BACK INTO THE 20S AND LOWER 30S SATURDAY NIGHT.
AS HIGH PRESSURE RETREATS OFFSHORE, A SHORTWAVE AND ATTENDANT AREA
OF LOW PRESSURE WILL TRACK FROM THE CENTRAL PLAINS NORTHEASTWARD
TOWARD THE GREAT LAKES. AS LARGE SCALE ASCENT INCREASES,
PRECIPITATION WILL BREAK OUT ACROSS THE AREA VERY LATE SATURDAY
NIGHT INTO THE DAY SUNDAY. VARIOUS SOURCES OF GUIDANCE DIFFER WITH
RESPECT TO HOW QUICKLY PRECIPITATION WILL BREAK OUT. IF
PRECIPITATION WERE TO BREAK OUT EARLY IN THE DAY BEFORE DAYTIME
HEATING WERE TO OCCUR, IT COULD START AS A BRIEF PERIOD OF FREEZING
RAIN. AT THE MOMENT THIS FREEZING RAIN SCENARIO APPEARS TO HAVE A
LOW PROBABILITY OF OCCURRENCE, AND WOULD LIKELY BE LIMITED TO
LOCATIONS ALONG AND WEST OF US-15 IF IT WERE TO OCCUR. HOWEVER, IT
BEARS WATCHING AS WE MOVE CLOSER TO THE EVENT, ESPECIALLY SINCE
SUNDAY IS ONE OF THE BUSIER TRAVEL DAYS OF THE YEAR. ELSEWHERE, JUST
RAIN IS EXPECTED, WITH TEMPERATURES CLIMBING INTO THE 40S. TOTAL
RAINFALL AMOUNTS LOOK TO BE ON THE LIGHTER SIDE, WITH A GENERAL
TENTH TO A QUARTER OF AN INCH FOR MOST. RAIN WILL MOVE OUT OF THE
AREA BY LATE SUNDAY NIGHT.
QUIETER CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED ON MONDAY AS SUNDAY'S SYSTEM PASSES
OFF TO OUR NORTHEAST. MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES ARE EXPECTED, WITH HIGHS
GENERALLY IN THE 40S (30S MOUNTAINS).
FORECAST CONFIDENCE DECREASES MARKEDLY BY TUESDAY. ON THE SYNOPTIC
SCALE A SHORTWAVE EMBEDDED WITHIN A MUCH BROADER LONGWAVE TROUGH
ENCOMPASSING MUCH OF THE CONUS IS EXPECTED TO LIFT NORTHEASTWARD OUT
OF THE BASE OF THE LONGWAVE TROUGH AND INTERACT WITH WHAT SHOULD BE
A SHARP BAROCLINIC ZONE IN PLACE ALONG THE EAST COAST. VARIOUS
SOURCES OF BOTH DETERMINISTIC AND ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE SHOW A LARGE
AMOUNT OF SPREAD WITH RESPECT TO WHAT WILL ENSUE WITH THIS SYSTEM.
SOME SOLUTIONS SHOW LARGE PRECIPITATION TOTALS, WHILE OTHERS SHOW
LITTLE PRECIPITATION AT ALL. SOME SHOW SNOW, SOME SHOW A WINTRY MIX,
AND OTHERS SHOW PLAIN RAIN. AS IS TYPICAL, TEMPERATURES LOOK TO BE
COLDER THE FURTHER NORTH AND WEST ONE GOES, SO THOSE LOCATIONS HAVE
A GREATER CHANCE TO EXPERIENCE WINTRY PRECIPITATION IF IT WERE TO
OCCUR. IT'S TOO EARLY TO GET INTO DETAILS AT THIS POINT, BUT THIS
SYSTEM WILL BE ONE TO MONITOR OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS, AS IT HAS
AT LEAST A CHANCE TO BRING PORTIONS OF THE AREA THEIR FIRST WINTRY
PRECIPITATION EVENT OF THE YEAR.
AVIATION /01Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/
COLD FRONT HAS PUSHED SOUTHEAST OF THE TERMINALS WITH GUSTY
WINDS NOW OUT OF THE WNW. THERE HAS BEEN A BIT OF A LULL BEHIND
THE INITIAL GUSTINESS WITH FRONTAL PASSAGE, BUT A SECONDARY
SURGE IS NOW PUSHING EASTWARD (MRB GUSTS INCREASED TO 37 KT
AGAIN). IT MAY BE UNTIL 04-05Z UNTIL THESE GUSTS SETTLE DOWN FOR
THE REMAINDER OF THE NIGHT. THEN, GUSTS WILL GENERALLY BE
AROUND 20-25 KNOTS THROUGH MUCH OF THURSDAY, WITH VFR CONDITIONS
EXPECTED.
WINDS INCREASE AGAIN ON FRIDAY AFTERNOON WHEN GUSTS TO 30 TO 35
KT ARE EXPECTED. THIS IS DUE TO A SECONDARY SURGE OF COLD
ADVECTION WITH THE REINFORCING SHOT OF COLD AIR.
VFR CONDITIONS AND LIGHT WINDS ARE EXPECTED ON SATURDAY AS HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS OVERHEAD. SUB-VFR CONDITIONS AND RAIN APPEAR
POSSIBLE AT TIMES ON SUNDAY. WINDS WILL BE OUT OF THE SOUTH AT
AROUND 5-10 KNOTS.
MARINE
THE COLD FRONT IS PUSHING THROUGH SOUTHERN MARYLAND THIS
EVENING. INITIAL GUSTS ALONG THE FRONT PASSAGE HAVE BEEN
VERIFYING IN THE 25-30 KT RANGE, FOLLOWED BY A BIT OF A LULL.
HOWEVER, A SECONDARY SURGE APPEARS TO BE APPROACHING WITH SOME
OBSERVED GUSTS UP TO 38 KT. WILL THEREFORE LEAVE THE GALE
WARNING IN EFFECT FOR NORTHERN WATERS, ALTHOUGH IT WILL LIKELY
BE ABLE TO BE CANCELLED AT SOME POINT IN THE SECOND HALF OF THE
NIGHT. OTHERWISE SOLID ADVISORY CONDITIONS CAN BE EXPECTED WITH
WINDS OUT OF THE WNW.
HIGH-END SCA CONDITIONS CONTINUE THROUGH THANKSGIVING DAY AND
AGAIN INTO FRIDAY. CAN'T COMPLETELY RULE OUT SOME GALE-FORCE
GUSTS THROUGHOUT THIS PERIOD, PARTICULARLY ON FRIDAY. HIGHEST
LIKELIHOOD OF THESE STRONGER GUSTS WOULD BE GENERALLY NORTH OF
THE BAY BRIDGE, AND IN THE UPPER POTOMAC WATERS AROUND DC.
WINDS SHOULD DROP OFF BELOW SCA CRITERIA SATURDAY AS HIGH
PRESSURE RETURNS BRIEFLY.
LIGHT WINDS ARE EXPECTED ON SATURDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER
THE WATERS. WINDS WILL TURN OUT OF THE SOUTH ON SUNDAY AND COULD
NEAR LOW-END SCA LEVELS WITHIN CHANNELED SOUTHERLY FLOW.
LWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
DC...NONE.
MD...GALE WARNING UNTIL 6 AM EST THURSDAY FOR MDZ008.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 6 AM THURSDAY TO 6 AM EST FRIDAY FOR
MDZ008.
WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 11 AM EST THURSDAY FOR MDZ501-509-510.
VA...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 11 AM EST THURSDAY FOR VAZ503-504-507-508.
WV...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 11 AM EST THURSDAY FOR WVZ501-503-505-506.
MARINE...GALE WARNING UNTIL 6 AM EST THURSDAY FOR ANZ530-531-535-538-
539.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 6 AM THURSDAY TO 6 AM EST FRIDAY FOR
ANZ530-531-538-539.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EST FRIDAY FOR ANZ532>534-537-
540>543.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 6 AM TO 6 PM EST THURSDAY FOR ANZ535.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EST THURSDAY FOR ANZ536.
SYNOPSIS...CJL
NEAR TERM...ADS/CJL
SHORT TERM...CJL
LONG TERM...KJP
AVIATION...ADS/CJL/KJP
MARINE...ADS/CJL/KJP
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.
Main Text Page