902
FXUS61 KLWX 011847
AFDLWX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC
147 PM EST SUN FEB 1 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
EARLIER COLD WEATHER HEADLINES HAVE BEEN DROPPED AND REPLACED
WITH ADDITIONAL ADVISORIES FOR PARTS OF THE AREA TONIGHT INTO
MONDAY MORNING. GALE WARNINGS HAVE BEEN CONFINED TO THE WATERS
AROUND SOUTHERN MARYLAND UNTIL 6 PM. LOW WATER ADVISORIES ARE
NOW CONFINED TO THE UPPER CHESAPEAKE BAY.
KEY MESSAGES
- 1) BELOW TO WELL BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL PERSIST
THROUGH THE WEEK.
- 2) A CLIPPER-TYPE LOW MAY BRING LIGHT SNOW TUESDAY NIGHT.
- 3) ANOTHER ARCTIC COLD FRONT ARRIVES FRIDAY BRINGING
ADDITIONAL CHANCES FOR SNOW, FOLLOWED BY MORE BRUTALLY COLD
ARCTIC AIR NEXT WEEKEND.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1...BELOW TO WELL BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL PERSIST
THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK.
WITH A NEGATIVE AO/NAO PATTERN HOLDING FIRM, COLDER THAN NORMAL
TEMPERATURES WILL PERSIST OVER THE MID-ATLANTIC FOR THE UPCOMING
WEEK. TEMPERATURES WILL MODERATE SLIGHTLY THROUGH MID WEEK.
WINDS WILL SLOWLY DIMINISH TONIGHT INTO MONDAY. AIR TEMPERATURES
TONIGHT SHOULD BE SIMILAR TO LAST NIGHT, BUT WITH A BIT LESS WIND.
THEREFORE, COLD WEATHER ADVISORIES ARE A BIT MORE LIMITED. AREAS
OVER THE MOUNTAINS (INCLUDING THE BLUE RIDGE), THE NORTHERN
SHENANDOAH VALLEY, AND NORTH-CENTRAL TO WESTERN MARYLAND HAVE A
COLD WEATHER ADVISORY CRITERIA OF -10 F, WHILE THE CENTRAL
SHENANDOAH VALLEY AND THE METRO AREAS/PIEDMONT HAVE A CRITERIA
OF 0 F. THIS IS THE REASON FOR THE UNIQUE SHAPE TO THE
HEADLINES TONIGHT.
TEMPERATURES WILL LIKELY RISE ABOVE FREEZING FOR THE FIRST TIME
IN AT LEAST A WEEK FOR SOME ON MONDAY, MAINLY OVER THE VIRGINIA
PIEDMONT. TEMPERATURES COULD THEN APPROACH OR EXCEED 40 DEGREES
ON TUESDAY ACROSS THE PIEDMONT AND COASTAL PLAIN. MOUNTAIN
LOCALES WILL HAVE A RELATIVE "WARMUP" AS WELL, BUT STILL REMAIN
BELOW FREEZING.
A CLIPPER-TYPE LOW WILL PASS TO OUR SOUTH LATE TUESDAY INTO
WEDNESDAY. MORE ON THE PRECIPITATION THREAT WITH THIS LOW IS
DISCUSSED BELOW. THE PASSAGE OF THIS SYSTEM WILL HALT THE UPWARD
TREND IN TEMPERATURES FOR THE SECOND HALF OF THE WEEK.
KEY MESSAGE 2...A CLIPPER-TYPE LOW MAY BRING LIGHT SNOW MID WEEK.
STARTING EARLY IN THE WEEK, AMIDST A BRIEF WARMUP, ATTENTION WILL
TURN TO THE NEXT POTENTIAL WINTER WEATHER MAKER TUESDAY NIGHT INTO
WEDNESDAY. A PIECE OF SHORTWAVE ENERGY ALOFT WILL DIVE OUT OF THE
NORTHERN PLAINS LATE MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY. THERE WILL ALSO BE A
PIECE OF SOUTHERN STREAM ENERGY MOVING OUT OF THE BAJA REGION DURING
THIS SAME TIME. THESE TWO SYSTEMS PHASE LATE TUESDAY OVER THE
ARKLATEX REGION BEFORE QUICKLY MOVING EAST INTO TUESDAY NIGHT,
WITH A WEAK SURFACE LOW DEVELOPING AS A RESULT.
PRIOR TO THE DEVELOPMENT AND ARRIVAL OF THIS SYSTEM, WAA IN THE
850-700 HPA LAYER MONDAY NIGHT WILL BRING A BRIEF INCREASE IN
CLOUDS, ALONG WITH A FEW MOUNTAIN SNOW SHOWERS.
REINFORCING ARCTIC AIR MOVES BACK INTO THE REGION LATE TUESDAY
NIGHT, AND WHILE NOT AS COLD AS THE PAST WEEK (YET), IT WILL BE
PLENTY COLD FOR SNOW OVERNIGHT TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING.
HOWEVER, THIS SYSTEM IS LACKING SUBSTANTIAL MOISTURE THIS GO
AROUND. MOST ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE STILL HAS THE AREA RECEIVING A
FEW HUNDREDTHS OF AN INCH TO MAYBE A TENTH OF AN INCH OF QPF
(THOUGH A COUPLE ARE DRY, AND A FEW HAVE OVER A QUARTER OF AN
INCH). RECENT TRENDS INDICATE A SLIGHT UPTICK/NORTHWARD TREND IN
QPF, AS WELL AS A RELATIVELY FASTER TREND.
WITH AN ARCTIC AIR MASS STILL IN PLACE, SLRS COULD BE A BIT
HIGHER THAN NORMAL, SO THAT COULD EQUATE TO AN ADVISORY-LEVEL
EVENT FOR PORTIONS OF THE AREA.
KEY MESSAGE 3...ANOTHER ARCTIC COLD FRONT ARRIVES FRIDAY
BRINGING ADDITIONAL CHANCES FOR SNOW, FOLLOWED BY MORE BRUTALLY
COLD ARCTIC AIR NEXT WEEKEND.
LARGE-SCALE TROUGHING CONTINUES OVER THE EASTERN U.S. THURSDAY
THROUGH NEXT WEEKEND. IN PARTICULAR, A VERY POTENT SHORTWAVE
EMBEDDED WITHIN THIS TROUGH WILL BRING YET ANOTHER SHOT OF
BRUTALLY COLD ARCTIC AIR FRIDAY INTO NEXT WEEKEND. THIS WILL
ALSO BRING ANOTHER SHOT OF UPSLOPE SNOW SHOWERS WITH IT FRIDAY
INTO SATURDAY ALONG THE ALLEGHENY FRONT. PROBABILITIES CONTINUE
TO INCREASE FOR AT LEAST ADVISORY-LEVEL SNOW ACCUMULATIONS IN
THOSE AREAS DURING THAT TIMEFRAME. THERE IS ALSO CURRENTLY A
25-40 PERCENT CHANCE THAT SNOW SHOWERS EVEN SPILL EAST TO THE
I-95 CORRIDOR AND EVEN TO THE CHESAPEAKE BAY. COULDN'T EVEN RULE
OUT A BIT OF A SNOW SQUALL SETUP, GIVEN A DEEP MOISTURE
CONNECTION TO THE GREAT LAKES REGION AND A POTENT ARCTIC FRONT
MOVING THROUGH. HOWEVER, THIS COULD BE SOMEWHAT LIMITED, GIVEN
THE AMOUNT OF ICE COVERAGE OVER THE GREAT LAKES AT THIS TIME.
STILL, SOMETHING TO NOTE FOR NOW, AND WILL FINE TUNE IN THE
FORECAST AS WE GET A BIT CLOSER IN TIME.
BLUSTERY CONDITIONS AND ANOTHER ROUND OF FRIGID TEMPERATURES ARE
LIKELY IN THE WAKE OF THIS SYSTEM HEADING INTO NEXT WEEKEND.
SATURDAY IN PARTICULAR LOOKS TO BE PARTICULARLY FRIGID, AS HIGHS
WILL BE DOWN INTO THE 20S ONCE AGAIN (TEENS IN THE MOUNTAINS) AND
WINDS WILL BE GUSTING UP TO 30 MPH. AS A RESULT, WIND CHILLS LOOK TO
BE DOWN INTO THE SINGLE DIGITS FOR MOST, EVEN DURING THE DAYTIME
HOURS. A BIT LESS WINDY, BUT JUST AS COLD IN TERMS OF AIR
TEMPERATURES ON SUNDAY. AT ANY RATE, COLD WEATHER HEADLINES MAY BE
NEEDED FOR PORTIONS OF THE REGION ONCE AGAIN DURING THIS TIMEFRAME.
AVIATION /18Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/
VFR IS EXPECTED TO PREVAIL THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT. WINDS WILL
GRADUALLY SUBSIDE THROUGH MONDAY AFTERNOON, BUT AT LEAST
OCCASIONAL GUSTS OF 15-25 KTS ARE EXPECTED. LLWS IS POSSIBLE
TONIGHT WHERE WINDS BECOME A BIT LIGHTER GIVEN 40+ KTS AT 2 KFT
AGL, BUT THERE WON'T BE MUCH DIRECTIONAL CHANGE WITH HEIGHT.
NW BREEZES BECOME LIGHT BY MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY BEFORE
EVENTUALLY SWITCHING TO S. CLOUDS INCREASE TUESDAY INTO TUESDAY
NIGHT AS LOW PRESSURE APPROACHES FROM THE OH/TN VALLEY. SUB-VFR
IS POSSIBLE IN -SN TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY, BUT THE EXTENT
OF RESTRICTIONS OR ACCUMULATIONS ARE UNCERTAIN AT THIS TIME AS
MOST GUIDANCE SHOWS A QUICK-MOVING LIGHT PRECIP EVENT.
ANY SNOW SHOWERS SHOULD MOVE EAST OF THE TERMINALS BY DAYBREAK ON
WEDNESDAY, GIVING WAY TO VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THURSDAY. WINDS WILL
BE OUT OF THE N ON WEDNESDAY, BUT TURN OUT OF THE NW ON THURSDAY,
WITH GUSTS BOTH DAYS AROUND 15 KNOTS OR SO. THURSDAY COULD SEE
A FEW GUSTS TO 20 KNOTS AS WELL, AS IT WILL BE A TOUCH WINDIER.
MARINE
NORTHWEST WINDS WILL GRADUALLY SUBSIDE TONIGHT INTO MONDAY,
BECOMING LIGHT MONDAY NIGHT, THEN SOUTHERLY BY LATE TUESDAY. A
CLIPPER-TYPE LOW WILL SCOOT BY TO THE SOUTH TUESDAY NIGHT INTO
WEDNESDAY. SOME LIGHT SNOW MAY ACCOMPANY THIS SYSTEM, FOLLOWED
BY A SHIFT IN WINDS BACK TO THE NORTHWEST. SUB-SCA CONDITIONS
ARE FAVORED BEYOND MONDAY AFTERNOON.
SOME SNOW SHOWERS COULD LINGER OVER THE CENTRAL/SOUTHERN CHESAPEAKE
BAY AND LOWER TIDAL POTOMAC RIVER EARLY ON WEDNESDAY, BUT
SHOULD QUICKLY PUSH SOUTH AND EAST OF THE AREA SHORTLY AFTER
SUNRISE. WINDS THEN TURN OUT OF THE NORTH, AND WITH THE HELP OF
CHANNELING DOWN THE CHESAPEAKE BAY, COULD EXCEED SCA CRITERIA.
WINDS THEN TURN OUT OF THE NW AND INCREASE A BIT ON THURSDAY IN
COLD ADVECTION, WHICH WILL LIKELY NECESSITATE SCAS AGAIN.
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING
OFFSHORE FLOW WILL GRADUALLY SUBSIDE THROUGH MONDAY. THIS SHOULD
LEAD TO A STEADY REBOUND IN TIDE LEVELS, PRECLUDING FURTHER LOW
WATER ISSUES. HOWEVER, BALTIMORE INNER HARBOR AND THE UPPER
CHESAPEAKE BAY WATERS COULD BE CLOSE TO -1 MLLW THROUGH TONIGHT.
LWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
DC...COLD WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 10 PM THIS EVENING TO 8 AM EST
MONDAY FOR DCZ001.
MD...COLD WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 10 PM THIS EVENING TO 8 AM EST
MONDAY FOR MDZ006-008-011-013-014-016-018-503>508.
COLD WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EST MONDAY FOR MDZ501-509-
510.
VA...COLD WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 10 PM THIS EVENING TO 8 AM EST
MONDAY FOR VAZ053-054-501-502-505-506-526-527.
COLD WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EST MONDAY FOR VAZ503.
COLD WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 8 PM THIS EVENING TO 10 AM EST
MONDAY FOR VAZ025-026.
COLD WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 6 PM THIS EVENING TO 10 AM EST
MONDAY FOR VAZ504-507-508.
WV...COLD WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EST MONDAY FOR WVZ501-503-
505.
COLD WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 6 PM THIS EVENING TO 10 AM EST
MONDAY FOR WVZ506.
MARINE...LOW WATER ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR ANZ530.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 PM EST MONDAY FOR ANZ530>532-535-
536-538>540-542.
LOW WATER ADVISORY UNTIL 4 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR ANZ531-
538.
GALE WARNING UNTIL 6 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR ANZ533-534-537-
541-543.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 6 PM THIS EVENING TO 4 PM EST MONDAY
FOR ANZ533-534-537-541-543.
DISCUSSION...DHOF/CJL
AVIATION...DHOF/CJL
MARINE...DHOF/CJL
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