641
FXUS61 KLWX 290033
AFDLWX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC
833 PM EDT MON SEP 28 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
NO PLANNED CHANGES TO THE FORECAST THIS EVENING.
KEY MESSAGES
- 1) TRANQUIL WEATHER IS EXPECTED THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK
WITH CLIMBING TEMPERATURES.
- 2) A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH ON FRIDAY, LEADING TO COOLER AND
POTENTIALLY UNSETTLED WEATHER FOR THE WEEKEND.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1...TRANQUIL WEATHER IS EXPECTED THROUGH THE MIDDLE
OF THE WEEK WITH CLIMBING TEMPERATURES.
CLOUDY SKIES LINGER TONIGHT AS THE WEAKENING NOR'EASTER PULLS
AWAY FROM THE COAST. SOME GUIDANCE IS HINTING AT PATCHY FOG
DEVELOPING, ESPECIALLY WEST OF I-81 TONIGHT. HOWEVER, GIVEN
WIDESPREAD CLOUDS IT WILL BE DIFFICULT TO GET MORE THAN PATCHY
FOG.
FOR TUESDAY, RESIDUAL MOISTURE MAY REMAIN TRAPPED BENEATH THE
SUBSIDENCE INVERSION WITH WEAK GRADIENTS ON TUESDAY, ALTHOUGH
DEEPER MIXING WILL LIKELY SUPPORT MORE BREAKS OF SUN. WITH
RIDGING BUILDING IN AT THE SFC AND ALOFT AND LIGHT SFC WINDS,
PATTERN WILL BECOME MORE CONDUCIVE FOR FOG DEVELOPMENT, IF SKIES
CLEAR ENOUGH. THIS APPEARS MORE LIKELY TO HAPPEN LATE TUE NIGHT
INTO WED MORNING.
TEMPERATURES WILL CLIMB FURTHER WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY, WITH
MORE LOCATIONS REACHING THE 80S. SOME SPOTS COULD EVEN REACH THE
UPPER 80S BY THURSDAY. DEVELOPING SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL LEAD TO
MORE SUNSHINE. DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED BOTH DAYS. WITH LIGHT
WINDS AND ELEVATED DEW POINTS, SOME PATCHY FOG COULD FORM DURING
THE OVERNIGHT HOURS.
KEY MESSAGE 2...A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH ON FRIDAY, LEADING TO
COOLER AND POTENTIALLY UNSETTLED WEATHER FOR THE WEEKEND.
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BEGINS TO SLIDE OFFSHORE THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY.
ABOVE-NORMAL TEMPERATURES LIKELY PERSIST INTO FRIDAY AFTERNOON WITH
TEMPERATURES APPROACHING THE UPPER-80S AS UPPER-LEVEL RIDGING SLOWLY
BREAKS DOWN AHEAD OF AN INCOMING COLD FRONT FROM THE GREAT LAKES.
THIS FRONT COULD SLOWLY BEGIN TO PASS THROUGH THE MID-ATLANTIC BY
FRIDAY EVENING BEFORE STALLING JUST OFF TO THE SOUTH.
THIS FRONT COULD POTENTIALLY LINGER THROUGHOUT THE WEEKEND
BEFORE FINALLY PUSHING OFFSHORE TOWARDS THE START OF NEXT WEEK.
THIS WILL LEAD TO A MUCH COOLER WEEKEND OVERALL, ALONG WITH
CHANCES FOR INTERMITTENT SHOWERS AS THE FRONT LINGERS OVER THE
MID- ATLANTIC. RAINFALL PROBABILITIES REMAIN LOWER (20%-40%) AT
THIS TIME GIVEN THE WEAK NATURE OF THE FRONT AND REMAINING
UNCERTAINTY IN THE MODEL GUIDANCE. AS THIS FRONT PUSHES
OFFSHORE, CONDITIONS COULD BEGIN TO CLEAR EARLY NEXT WEEK, WITH
DAILY HIGHS RETURNING TO THE 60S AND LOWER 70S IN THE WAKE OF
THE FRONT.
AVIATION /00Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/
CIGS HAVE LIFTED TO VFR THIS EVENING AND SHOULD REMAIN OVERCAST
AT AROUND 3-4KFT TONIGHT. LIGHT NORTHWEST WINDS BECOME CALM AT
MANY LOCATIONS TONIGHT.
GUIDANCE SUGGESTS MVFR CEILINGS OR SOME PATCHY FOG IF THERE ARE
BREAKS COULD DEVELOP AT MRB OVERNIGHT. OTHERWISE VFR CONDITIONS
ARE EXPECTED.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL PROVIDE TRANQUIL WEATHER FOR TUESDAY THROUGH
THURSDAY. THE ONLY POTENTIAL IMPACTS WOULD BE FROM EARLY MORNING
FOG (GREATEST CHANCES AT MRB AND CHO).
PREVAILING VFR CONDITIONS ARE ANTICIPATED AT TERMINALS THROUGH
FRIDAY AND SATURDAY. A COLD FRONT COULD BRING SOME SHOWERS ON
FRIDAY, WHICH COULD BRING BRIEF PERIODS OF REDUCED CIGS. OTHERWISE,
SOUTHERLY WINDS SHIFT NORTHERLY BY SATURDAY MORNING, WITH GUSTS
STAYING BELOW 15 KNOTS.
MARINE
HIGH PRESSURE MOVING TOWARD THE AREA WILL PROVIDE LIGHT WINDS
TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY. A NORTHWESTERLY DIRECTION WILL TURN
SOUTHERLY ON WEDNESDAY.
SOUTHERLY WINDS BEGIN TO PICK UP IN STRENGTH ON THURSDAY, WITH SOME
CHANNELING EFFECTS BRINGING GUSTS TO NEAR 20 KNOTS OVER THE MORE
SOUTHERN WATERS.
A PASSING COLD FRONT COULD BRING WIND GUSTS UP TO MARGINAL SCA
THRESHOLDS FRIDAY AND INTO SATURDAY. WINDS SHIFT NORTHERLY
BY FRIDAY EVENING.
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING
SOME UNCERTAINTY EXISTS FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK AS
GUIDANCE INDICATES ANOMALIES WILL STAGNATE CLOSE TO 1 FOOT ABOVE
NORMAL. AS LONG AS IT STAYS NEAR THIS VALUE, MOST LOCATIONS
SHOULD REMAIN BELOW MINOR FLOOD THRESHOLDS. HOWEVER, ANNAPOLIS
COULD HAVE MINOR FLOODING FOR SOME TIDE CYCLES DEPENDING ON HOW
EXACTLY THE WATER LEVELS FLUCTUATE.
LWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
DC...NONE.
MD...NONE.
VA...NONE.
WV...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
DISCUSSION...ADS/LFR/SRT/KRR
AVIATION...ADS/LFR/SRT/KRR
MARINE...ADS/LFR/SRT
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