859
FXUS61 KLWX 221447 AAA
AFDLWX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC
947 AM EST THU JAN 22 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
WINTER STORM WATCHES HAVE BEEN ISSUED FOR THE ENTIRE REGION FOR
A POTENTIAL MAJOR WINTER STORM THIS WEEKEND. NOW IS THE TIME
TO MAKE PREPARATIONS GIVEN THE SIGNIFICANT IMPACTS FROM THIS
STORM AS WELL AS PROLONGED COLD TO FOLLOW. LETTING THE WINTER
WEATHER ADVISORY FOR THE ALLEGHENY MOUNTAINS AT 10 AM.
CONTINUING TO SEE AN EARLIER TREND OF WHEN THE MIXING WILL START
SUNDAY MORNING COMPARED TO 24 HOURS AGO. OUR SNOW TOTALS LATER
THIS AFTERNOON WILL INCLUDE SNOW, SLEET, AND ICE ACCUMULATIONS
THROUGH 7 PM SUNDAY.
KEY MESSAGES
- 1) HIGH CONFIDENCE FOR A MAJOR WINTER STORM ACROSS THE REGION
LATE SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY.
- 2) DANGEROUSLY COLD WIND CHILLS AND NEAR RECORD BREAKING
TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN LIKELY THIS WEEKEND THROUGH EARLY
NEXT WEEK.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1...HIGH CONFIDENCE FOR A MAJOR WINTER STORM
ACROSS THE REGION LATE SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY.
NOT TOO MUCH CHANGE IN REGARDS TO TIMING BASED UPON THE LATEST
GUIDANCE WITH LATE SATURDAY EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT AS THE
PRIME PERIOD FOR SIGNIFICANT WINTER WEATHER IMPACTS. NOAA AOML
RECON HAD BEEN PUT DROPSONDES INTO THE PIECE OF THE STORM
SYSTEM YESTERDAY WHICH IS STILL BACK WEST OF BAJA CALIFORNIA.
THESE DROPSONDES COMBINED WITH UPPER AIR/OTHER AIRCRAFT
OBSERVATIONS SHOULD GIVE THE MODELS A FEW MORE PIECES TO THE
PUZZLE IN REGARDS TO WHAT WILL HAPPEN THIS WEEKEND.
THE OVERALL SYNOPTIC PATTERN REMAINS RATHER COMPLICATED,
PARTICULARLY AS A NUMBER OF THE FEATURES HAVE NOT MOVED INTO THE
DENSER NORTH AMERICAN DATA NETWORK YET. AS IS COMMON WITH MID-
ATLANTIC SNOWSTORMS, BOTH THE NORTHERN AND SOUTHERN STREAMS
NEED TO BE ACTIVE WITH SOME INTERACTION BETWEEN THE TWO. LOOKING
MORE CLOSELY AT THIS, THE NORTHERN STREAM REMAINS VERY AMPLIFIED
AS CYCLONIC FLOW DRAWS ARCTIC AIR SOUTHWARD. AT THE SAME TIME,
THE MENTIONED UPPER LOW JUST OFFSHORE OF SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA
SHOULD GRADUALLY ACCELERATE EASTWARD ACROSS BAJA CALIFORNIA
EARLY IN THE WEEKEND. THE HEIGHT PATTERN EVIDENT IN THE GUIDANCE
SUGGESTS A DECENT AMOUNT OF CONFLUENCE DOWNSTREAM ACROSS THE
CENTRAL/EASTERN U.S. AMPLE LIFT OVER THIS REGION WILL OCCUR ATOP
THE ARCTIC AIR MASS THAT PLUNGES SOUTHWARD IN TIME. MEANWHILE,
AMPLE LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE ADVECTION TAKES PLACE WHICH WILL TAP
INTO THE AMPLE ENERGETICS OF THIS SETUP. AS THE ARCTIC HIGH
SETTLES OVER NEW ENGLAND, THE FAMILIAR COLD AIR DAMMING ISOBARIC
PATTERN SETS UP ALONG THE EASTERN SEABOARD. THIS WILL CERTAINLY
ENSURE ALMOST NO CHANCE OF PLAIN RAIN IN THIS FRIGID SETUP.
ONE THING TO NOTE REGARDING THE LATEST GUIDANCE IS THAT THERE
HAS BEEN SOME LEVELING OFF IN THE TRENDS OF THE TRACK OF THE LOW.
SOME UNCERTAINTY REMAINS IN HOW FAR NORTH SLEET/FREEZING RAIN
EVOLVES GIVEN THE EXACT TRACK OF THE SYSTEM AND TEMPERATURE
PROFILES ALOFT. WITH DEEPER COLD AIR IN PLACE, SLEET MAY BE
FAVORED FOR A TIME FOR A LARGE AREA SOUTH OF I-70 AND ESPECIALLY
US-50 ON SUNDAY BEFORE A POTENTIAL TRANSITION TO FREEZING RAIN.
THERE ARE HINTS OF SIGNIFICANT ICING POTENTIAL FROM CENTRAL VA
AND POSSIBLY INTO THE I-95 CORRIDOR AND SOUTHERN MD LATE SUNDAY.
SNOW TO LIQUID RATIOS LOOK TO START AROUND 15-18:1 WITH THIS
SYSTEM FOR THE ENTIRETY OF THE AREA, WHILE THEN TRENDING DOWN
TOWARD 7-10:1 SUNDAY MORNING INTO THE AFTERNOON (LOWER WHERE
SOME MIXING OCCURS). A PENDING DRY SLOT COULD ALSO PLAY INTO
AMOUNTS AS WELL. SNOW SHOULD BE FLUFFY IN NATURE, PARTICULARLY
WITHIN THE INITIAL WARM ADVECTION CONVEYOR BELT SATURDAY NIGHT.
EXPECT SOME CRUSTINESS OF THIS SNOWPACK GIVEN ANY MIXING THAT
MAY OCCUR AS THE SYSTEM KICKS OUT HEADING INTO SUNDAY NIGHT.
UPSLOPE SNOW MAY LINGER ALONG AND WEST OF THE ALLEGHENY FRONT
INTO MONDAY MORNING, AS WILL THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME LIGHT SNOW
OR FREEZING DRIZZLE NEAR AND EAST OF I-95.
THE PROBABILITIES FOR SIGNIFICANT SNOW AND ICE REMAIN VERY HIGH.
THE MOST LIKELY AREA FOR THE HIGHEST SNOWFALL TOTALS IS ACROSS
NORTHERN MD AND OVER VA NEAR AND WEST OF THE BLUE RIDGE. THE
CHANCE OF GREATER THAN 6 INCHES OF SNOW IS AN IMPRESSIVE 75 TO
90+ PERCENT AREAWIDE, HIGHEST IN THE AFOREMENTIONED ARC. CHANCES
FOR A FOOT OF SNOW ARE ALSO QUITE HIGH WITH VALUES WELL OVER 50
PERCENT IN THE FAVORED AREAS ALONG/WEST OF THE BLUE RIDGE UP TO
NORTHERN MD (WITH 30-50 PERCENT CHANCES OF 18-24 INCHES THERE).
FURTHER SOUTH AND EAST, MIXING MAY ULTIMATELY PUT A LID ON JUST
HOW HIGH SNOWFALL TOTALS GET, THOUGH LIFT THROUGH THE DGZ AND
THEREFORE SNOWFALL RATES PRIOR TO ANY MIXING LOOK IMPRESSIVE.
REGARDING ICE, AREAS FROM CENTRAL VA TO SOUTHERN MD AND UP THE
I-95 CORRIDOR HAVE THE HIGHEST PROBABILITIES OF ICING AT 30-50
PERCENT (THOUGH THAT WILL LIKELY TREND HIGHER GIVEN THE SETUP AS
NEW GUIDANCE CATCHES ON AND IS INGESTED INTO THE NBM). CHANCES
FOR ONE-QUARTER INCH OR MORE OF ICE HAS BALLOONED TO OVER 20
PERCENT IN THESE AREAS AS WELL, WITH EVEN SOME 10 TO 20 PERCENT
PROBABILITIES OF A HALF INCH FROM CENTRAL VA TO SOUTHERN MD.
THE COMBINATION OF HEAVY SNOW AND ICE ALONGSIDE PROLONGED VERY
COLD TEMPERATURES PRESENTS A UNIQUE AND SIGNIFICANT RISK TO LIFE
AND PROPERTY ACROSS VIRTUALLY THE ENTIRE REGION.
MONITOR THE LATEST FORECASTS AT WEATHER.GOV/LWX/WINTER FOR
UPDATES ON THIS SITUATION. NOW IS THE TIME TO MAKE PREPARATIONS
FOR THE STORM. THIS INCLUDES GETTING ANY NECESSARY GROCERIES OR
MEDICINES THAT YOU MAY NOT BE ABLE TO ACCESS THIS WEEKEND INTO
EARLY NEXT WEEK DUE TO ANY POTENTIAL CLOSURE. HAVE AN EMERGENCY
KIT IN THE CAR INCLUDING EXTRA BATTERIES, A FLASHLIGHT, AND
BLANKET JUST IN CASE YOU GET STRANDED. MAKE SURE TO REFUEL OR
CHARGE YOUR CAR BEFORE THE STORM HITS. CHECK ON ELDERLY FRIENDS,
FAMILY, AND NEIGHBORS AND DON'T FORGET ABOUT PETS OR LIVESTOCK
DURING THIS PROLONGED COLD PERIOD.
KEY MESSAGE 2...DANGEROUSLY COLD WIND CHILLS AND NEAR RECORD BREAKING
TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN LIKELY THIS WEEKEND THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK.
1036-1044MB ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE TO THE NORTH WILL UNLEASH TRUE
ARCTIC AIR ACROSS THE REGION THIS WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.
850 MB TEMPERATURES FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY WILL DROP TO AS
LOW AS -20 DEGREES C. THIS WILL YIELD WIDESPREAD SINGLE DIGIT
LOWS FRIDAY NIGHT WITH HIGHS SATURDAY (EAST OF THE MOUNTAINS)
STRUGGLING TO GET OUT OF THE MID TEENS AND LOW 20S. WIND CHILL
FACTORS WON'T BE MUCH BETTER DURING THIS TIME WITH WIDESPREAD
VALUES NEAR OR BELOW ZERO FRIDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHTS.
TEMPERATURES INCREASE SLIGHTLY SUNDAY WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER TEENS
AND LOW 20S. SIMILAR VALUES CAN BE EXPECTED MONDAY AND TUESDAY AS
WELL. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL REMAIN IN THE SINGLE DIGITS TO LOW TEENS
WITH SUB-ZERO VALUES OVER THE MOUNTAINS. OF COURSE DAYTIME HIGHS/LOWS
WILL BE SUBJECT TO CHANGE GIVEN ANTICIPATED SNOWPACK ON THE GROUND.
VALUES COULD TREND LOWER, ESPECIALLY DURING THE NIGHTTIME AND
EARLY MORNING PERIODS AS WINDS SUBSIDE ON CERTAIN NIGHTS HEADING
INTO THE NEW WORKWEEK. SEVERAL RECORDS MAY BE BROKEN WITHIN
THIS FRIGID STRETCH (SEE CLIMATE SECTION BELOW). WIND CHILLS
SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY, AND MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY WILL
REMAIN IN THE SINGLE DIGITS TO BELOW ZERO AREAWIDE. THE LOWEST
WIND CHILLS RIGHT NOW LOOK TO OCCUR BEHIND THE ARCTIC FRONT
FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY, AND AGAIN MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY
AS A REINFORCING WEAK WAVE OF ENERGY PASSES THROUGH.
WITH PROLONGED COLD TEMPERATURES, EXPECT AN INCREASE IN WATER
MAIN ISSUES AND DIFFICULTY WITH SNOW/ICE CLEARING OPERATIONS.
HYPOTHERMIA AND FROSTBITE WILL BECOME AN ISSUE AS WELL,
ESPECIALLY FOR THOSE SPENDING EXTENDED TIME OUTDOORS. FOR THOSE
USING ALTERNATIVE SOURCES OF HEAT I.E. SPACE HEATERS, FIREPLACES,
AND STOVES, NEVER LEAVE THESE UNATTENDED. KEEP AREAS WELL
VENTILATED TO AVOID FIRES OR CARBON MONOXIDE POISONING.
AVIATION /14Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/
VFR CONDITIONS CONTINUE THROUGH FRIDAY WITH DRY CONDITIONS
EXPECTED. WINDS TURN TOWARD MORE OF A SOUTHWEST AND WESTERLY
DIRECTION TODAY. GUSTS OF 15 KTS ARE EXPECTED LATE MORNING,
INCREASING TO 20-25 KTS THIS AFTERNOON. WINDS WILL DECREASE
TONIGHT WHILE TURNING NORTHWESTERLY THROUGH FRIDAY AS A STRONG
ARCTIC FRONT PUSHES THROUGH. GUSTS OF 20 TO PERHAPS 30 KTS CAN
BE EXPECTED ALONG AND DIRECTLY BEHIND THE FRONTAL PASSAGE FRIDAY
AFTERNOON INTO FRIDAY NIGHT.
SUB-VFR CONDITIONS RETURN FROM THE SOUTHWEST SATURDAY AFTERNOON
BEFORE SPREADING NORTHEAST SATURDAY EVENING INTO SATURDAY NIGHT.
THIS IS IN RELATION TO A HIGH IMPACT MAJOR WINTER STORM THAT WILL
IMPACT THE MID-ATLANTIC REGION. THE MAIN WINDOW FOR HEAVY SNOW
ACCUMULATION WILL BE BETWEEN 00Z/7PM SATURDAY THROUGH 18Z/1PM SUNDAY
WITH SOME MIXED PRECIP POSSIBLE SUNDAY MORNING INTO SUNDAY AFTERNOON
ESPECIALLY AT TERMINALS SOUTH/EAST OF DCA. PRECIP SHOULD LARGELY END
BY OR SHORTLY AFTER 06Z/1AM MONDAY. PLAN FOR TRAVEL DELAYS AND
CANCELLATIONS THAT MAY LINGER INTO THE FIRST HALF OF NEXT WEEK.
MARINE
WINDS SHIFT TO WESTERLY THIS MORNING THEN NORTHWESTERLY THIS
AFTERNOON WITH GUSTS AROUND 20 KNOTS. SUB-SCA CRITERIA WINDS ARE
EXPECTED LATE THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING.
NORTHWEST WINDS GUST 20 TO 25 KNOTS OVER THE WATERS BEGINNING FRIDAY
AFTERNOON AND PERSIST THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT. COLD TEMPERATURES MAY
LEAD TO POSSIBLE FREEZING SPRAY, ESPECIALLY AS WINDS APPROACH GALE-
FORCE FRIDAY NIGHT.
GUSTY WINDS AND FREEZING SPRAY LIKELY LINGER THROUGH THE WEEKEND
AS A MAJOR WINTER STORM TRACKS ACROSS THE REGION.
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING
BLOWOUT TIDES ARE EXPECTED FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THE FIRST HALF
OF NEXT WEEK. WATER LEVELS ARE EXPECTED TO BOTTOM OUT AT 1 TO 2
FT BELOW MLLW SATURDAY MORNING AND MAY EXTEND INTO MONDAY AS NW
WINDS STRENGTHEN.
CLIMATE
HERE ARE SOME DAILY TEMPERATURE RECORDS DURING THE JANUARY 24-27,
2026 TIMEFRAME:
A '+' SIGN INDICATES MULTIPLE YEARS CURRENTLY HOLD THAT RECORD.
A '!' SIGN INDICATES THE RECORD IS FORECAST TO BE TIED OR BROKEN.
***SATURDAY, JANUARY 24TH, 2026***
LOCATION RECORD COLD HIGH (YEAR) RECORD LOW (YEAR)
WASHINGTON-NATIONAL (DCA) 18F (1948) 3F (1963)
WASHINGTON-DULLES (IAD) 21F (2014)! -2F (1987)
BALTIMORE (BWI) 17F (1948) 1F (1963)
BALTIMORE INNER HARBOR (DMH) 21F (2014)+! 4F (1963)
MARTINSBURG (MRB) 13F (1948) -4F (1963)+
CHARLOTTESVILLE (CHO) 23F (2014)+! 5F (1963)
ANNAPOLIS (NAK) 18F (1948)! 2F (1963)
HAGERSTOWN (HGR) 12F (1936) -5F (1963)+
***SUNDAY, JANUARY 25TH, 2026***
LOCATION RECORD COLD HIGH (YEAR) RECORD LOW (YEAR)
WASHINGTON-NATIONAL (DCA) 16F (1897) 3F (1935)
WASHINGTON-DULLES (IAD) 18F (1987) -5F (1987)
BALTIMORE (BWI) 17F (1987)+ 0F (1897)
BALTIMORE INNER HARBOR (DMH) 20F (2004)+ 8F (1961)
MARTINSBURG (MRB) 16F (2004)+ -4F (1936)
CHARLOTTESVILLE (CHO) 19F (2004)+ 5F (1948)
ANNAPOLIS (NAK) 19F (1961) 3F (1987)
HAGERSTOWN (HGR) 15F (2004) -15F (1935)
***MONDAY, JANUARY 26TH, 2026***
LOCATION RECORD COLD HIGH (YEAR) RECORD LOW (YEAR)
WASHINGTON-NATIONAL (DCA) 17F (1961) 5F (1948)+
WASHINGTON-DULLES (IAD) 21F (1966) 3F (1987)
BALTIMORE (BWI) 17F (1961) 2F (1961)
BALTIMORE INNER HARBOR (DMH) 19F (1961) 13F (1982)!
MARTINSBURG (MRB) 12F (1961) -10F (1948)
CHARLOTTESVILLE (CHO) 13F (1961) 9F (1922)!
ANNAPOLIS (NAK) 18F (1961) 5F (1905)
HAGERSTOWN (HGR) 15F (1961) -12F (1948)
***TUESDAY, JANUARY 27TH, 2026***
LOCATION RECORD COLD HIGH (YEAR) RECORD LOW (YEAR)
WASHINGTON-NATIONAL (DCA) 22F (1961) 6F (1935)
WASHINGTON-DULLES (IAD) 22F (2003) -9F (1987)
BALTIMORE (BWI) 21F (1918) 3F (1987)
BALTIMORE INNER HARBOR (DMH) 22F (1961) 13F (1982)!
MARTINSBURG (MRB) 17F (1971) -6F (1987)
CHARLOTTESVILLE (CHO) 18F (1961) 0F (1982)
ANNAPOLIS (NAK) 22F (1961) 5F (1927)
HAGERSTOWN (HGR) 17F (1907) -10F (1987)
LWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
DC...WINTER STORM WATCH FROM SATURDAY EVENING THROUGH MONDAY
MORNING FOR DCZ001.
MD...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR MDZ008.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM NOON TO 6 PM EST FRIDAY FOR MDZ008.
GALE WATCH FROM FRIDAY EVENING THROUGH LATE FRIDAY NIGHT FOR
MDZ008.
WINTER STORM WATCH FROM SATURDAY EVENING THROUGH MONDAY
MORNING FOR MDZ008-011-013-014-016>018-504-506-508.
WINTER STORM WATCH FROM SATURDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH LATE SUNDAY
NIGHT FOR MDZ003>006-503-505-507.
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR
MDZ501-509-510.
WINTER STORM WATCH FROM SATURDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH MONDAY
AFTERNOON FOR MDZ501-502-509-510.
VA...WINTER STORM WATCH FROM SATURDAY EVENING THROUGH MONDAY
MORNING FOR VAZ053>057-527.
WINTER STORM WATCH FROM SATURDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH LATE SUNDAY
NIGHT FOR VAZ025>031-036>040-050-051-501-502-505>508-526.
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR
VAZ503.
WINTER STORM WATCH FROM SATURDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH MONDAY
AFTERNOON FOR VAZ503-504.
WV...WINTER STORM WATCH FROM SATURDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH LATE SUNDAY
NIGHT FOR WVZ050>053-055.
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR
WVZ501-503-505.
WINTER STORM WATCH FROM SATURDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH MONDAY
AFTERNOON FOR WVZ501>506.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR
ANZ530>543.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM NOON TO 6 PM EST FRIDAY FOR
ANZ530>533-538>541.
GALE WATCH FROM FRIDAY EVENING THROUGH LATE FRIDAY NIGHT FOR
ANZ530>534-537>543.
WINTER STORM WATCH FROM SATURDAY EVENING THROUGH MONDAY
MORNING FOR ANZ530.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM NOON FRIDAY TO 6 AM EST SATURDAY FOR
ANZ535-536.
DISCUSSION...AVS/LFR/BRO/DHOF/EST
AVIATION...AVS/LFR/BRO/DHOF/EST
MARINE...AVS/LFR/BRO/DHOF/EST
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