783
FXUS61 KLWX 250030
AFDLWX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC
830 PM EDT WED APR 24 2024
SYNOPSIS
HIGH PRESSURE WILL RETURN THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. A WARM FRONT WILL
LIFT INTO THE AREA THIS WEEKEND BRINGING A SIGNIFICANT WARM UP
EARLY NEXT WEEK. THE NEXT CHANCE FOR WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION
ARRIVES WITH A COLD FRONT TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY NEXT WEEK.
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/
A TRAILING SHORTWAVE IS EVIDENT ON WATER VAPOR IMAGERY NEAR
PITTSBURGH EARLY THIS EVENING. AT THE SURFACE, A SECONDARY COLD
FRONT ARCS FROM NE PA INTO N WV. A FEW EXTRA CLOUDS, PERHAPS A
COUPLE SPRINKLES OR A SHOWER OR TWO, AND A WIND SHIFT TO NNE
WITH SOME 15-25 MPH GUSTS ARE EXPECTED WITH THESE FEATURES
LATER TONIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILDS OVER THE GREAT LAKES,
AND COLD ADVECTION WILL CONTINUE IN NORTHERLY FLOW WITH
TEMPERATURES DROPPING BACK INTO THE UPPER 30S TO MID 40S.
SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/
HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD TO OUR NORTH TOMORROW INTO
FRIDAY. AS THE HIGH SLOWLY SHIFTS EASTWARD, WINDS WILL TURN FROM
NORTHEASTERLY TOMORROW MORNING, TO EASTERLY TOMORROW AFTERNOON,
AND THEN SOUTHEASTERLY ON FRIDAY. NO PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED
THROUGH THE DAYLIGHT HOURS FRIDAY. IN GENERAL, A MIX OF SUN AND
CLOUDS IS FORECAST, WITH CLOUDIER SKIES FURTHER SOUTH AND WEST,
AND MORE SUNSHINE FURTHER NORTH AND EAST. HIGH TEMPERATURES
BOTH DAYS WILL BE IN THE UPPER 50S TO LOWER 60S, WITH LOWS
GENERALLY IN THE 40S. THE NEXT CHANCE FOR SHOWERS WILL COME
FRIDAY NIGHT AS WARM ADVECTION ENSUES ALOFT AHEAD OF A SYSTEM
OVER THE CENTER OF THE COUNTRY.
LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
A TALE OF TWO SEASONS THIS WEEKEND AS A WARM FRONT LIFTS THROUGH THE
REGION. FEELING LIKE SUMMER SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY WITH THE NEXT
WIDESPREAD CHANCE OF RAIN ARRIVING MIDWEEK.
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO NUDGE SOUTH AND EAST OFF THE
SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND COAST INTO THE WESTERN ATLANTIC FOR THE START
OF THE WEEKEND. MEANWHILE, AT THE SURFACE A WARM FRONT WILL LIFT
NORTH ALONG THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE SURFACE HIGH AND PUSH
TOWARD THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY. THIS FRONT MAY
LEND TO A FEW SHOWERS MAINLY ALONG AND WEST OF THE BLUE RIDGE
ALTHOUGH IT SHOULD REMAIN RELATIVELY MOISTURE STARVED WITH UPPER
LEVEL RIDGING QUICKLY BUILDING IN FROM THE SOUTHEASTERN U.S. HIGH
TEMPERATURES SATURDAY WILL RANGE FROM THE UPPER 50S AND LOW 60S
NORTH OF I-66/US-50 WITH MID TO UPPER 60S FURTHER SOUTH. THIS SPREAD
IS DUE LARGELY IN PART TO THE PLACEMENT OF THE BOUNDARY AND ERODING
WEDGE/EASTERLY COMPONENT MAINLY EAST OF THE BLUE RIDGE.
A TRUE TEASE TO SUMMER ARRIVES SUNDAY-TUESDAY OF NEXT WEEK AS STRONG
UPPER LEVEL RIDGING BUILDS OVER THE MID-ATLANTIC REGION. WITH
STRONG SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE OFF THE NC COAST AN AMPLE SUPPLY OF
WARM AIR ADVECTION WILL SURGE OUR WAY BOOSTING TEMPERATURES
INTO THE UPPER 70S AND LOW 80S SUNDAY AND POTENTIALLY PUSHING
TOWARD 90 DEGREES IN SOME LOCATIONS EARLY NEXT WEEK. THESE
TEMPERATURES WILL BE 10 TO 15 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL FOR LATE
APRIL STANDARDS. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL FALL INTO THE 50S AND 60S.
THE RIDGE BEGINS TO BUCKLE TUESDAY AS A STRONG COLD FRONT APPROACHES
FROM THE OHIO RIVER VALLEY. THE FRONT WILL BRING RENEWED CHANCES FOR
WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE REGION. WITH THAT
SAID, SEVERE WEATHER COULD BECOME A POSSIBILITY GIVEN THE WELL ABOVE
NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND MODEST DYNAMICS TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND
EVENING AS THE FRONT PASSES. CIPS ANALOGUES AND THE CSU MACHINE LEARNING
PROBABILITIES CONTINUE TO HIGHLIGHT THIS POTENTIAL 7 DAYS OUT
WITH LOW PROBABILITIES ESPECIALLY IN AREAS EAST OF I-81. WE'LL
CONTINUE TO MONITOR THIS THREAT AND SEE HOW IT EVOLVES OVER THE
COMING DAYS AHEAD.
AVIATION /00Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH FRIDAY. WINDS TURN
NORTHERLY AND THEN NORTHEASTERLY TONIGHT, WITH A FEW GUSTS OF
15-20 KTS POSSIBLE 03Z-09Z BEHIND A SECONDARY COLD FRONT. WINDS
START OUT NORTHEASTERLY TOMORROW, THEN TURN EASTERLY TOMORROW
AFTERNOON. BRIEF MVFR CIGS ARE POSSIBLE, MAINLY FOR NORTHERN
TERMINALS IN THE MORNING. WINDS ON FRIDAY WILL BE OUT OF THE
SOUTHEAST.
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED AT ALL TERMINALS FRIDAY WITH HIGH
PRESSURE OVERHEAD. EAST TO SOUTHEAST WINDS WILL GUST TO 15 KTS.
A WARM FRONT LIFTS INTO THE AREA SATURDAY PROVIDING A FEW SPOTTY
SHOWERS TO TERMINALS WEST OF THE CORRIDOR. OUTSIDE OF THE SHOWERS
EXPECT EXTRA MID AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS FROM TIME TO TIME WITH
SOUTHERLY WINDS GUSTING 20 TO 25 KTS. LESS CLOUD COVER IS EXPECTED
SUNDAY AND MONDAY AS RIDGING STRENGTHENS. WINDS WILL REMAIN ELEVATED
OUT OF THE SOUTH AND SOUTHWEST WITH GUSTS TO 15 KTS.
MARINE
WINDS TURN NORTH-NORTHEASTERLY TONIGHT, AND SCAS REMAIN IN
EFFECT THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING. SUB-SCA NORTHEAST AND THEN
EASTERLY WINDS ARE BY EXPECTED TOMORROW AFTERNOON. SUB-SCA
SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS ARE EXPECTED ON FRIDAY, THOUGH CHANNELING IS
POSSIBLE LATE IN THE DAY.
WINDS COULD FLIRT WITH SCA CRITERIA FOR A FEW HOURS ON BOTH SATURDAY
AND SUNDAY. A WARM FRONT WILL LIFT ACROSS THE WATERS SATURDAY
CHANGING THE WINDS TOWARD MORE OF A SOUTHERLY DIRECTION. WITH
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE OFF THE CAROLINA COAST EXPECTED, SOUTHERLY
WINDS SATURDAY TO CHANGE TO MORE OF A SOUTHEASTERLY DIRECTION
SUNDAY. GUSTS OF 15-20 KTS ARE EXPECTED SATURDAY WITH 20-25 KT
GUSTS POSSIBLE SUNDAY DUE TO SOUTHERLY CHANNELING. SUB-SCA LEVEL
WINDS RETURN MONDAY BEFORE SCA LEVEL WINDS RETURN AHEAD OF A
STRONG COLD FRONT TUESDAY.
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING
NORTHWESTERLY WINDS ARE CAUSING TIDAL ANOMALIES TO DROP. AS A
RESULT, NO COASTAL FLOODING IS EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT DAY, WITH
ONLY ACTION STAGE POSSIBLE AT THE MOST SENSITIVE SITES. WINDS
TURN EASTERLY TOMORROW, AND THEN SOUTHEASTERLY ON FRIDAY. THIS
MAY CAUSE WATER LEVELS TO INCREASE AGAIN, MAKING COASTAL
FLOODING POSSIBLE BY FRIDAY.
LWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
DC...NONE.
MD...NONE.
VA...NONE.
WV...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM EDT THURSDAY FOR ANZ530-531-
539.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO NOON EDT
THURSDAY FOR ANZ532>534-537-541-543.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 9 AM EDT
THURSDAY FOR ANZ536-540-542.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EDT THURSDAY FOR ANZ538.
SYNOPSIS...DHOF/KJP
NEAR TERM...DHOF/KJP
SHORT TERM...KJP
LONG TERM...EST
AVIATION...DHOF/KJP/EST
MARINE...DHOF/KJP/EST
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...LWX
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