313
FXUS61 KRNK 151033
AFDRNK
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA
633 AM EDT SUN MAR 15 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
AVIATION UPDATE.
INCREASE IN SEVERE WEATHER OUTLOOK TO MODERATE FOR ALONG AND
EAST OF U.S. 29 FROM LYNCHBURG TO DANVILLE TO REIDSVILLE FOR
MONDAY.
KEY MESSAGES
1) WEDGE SETS UP TODAY WITH CLOUDS INCREASING ALONG WITH RAIN
CHANCES. A FEW THUNDERSTORMS TONIGHT MAINLY ACROSS NC/SOUTHSIDE
VA.
2) STRONG FRONT MONDAY WITH SEVERE WEATHER POTENTIAL.
3) COLD TEMPERATURES AND WIND CHILLS ALONG WITH MOUNTAIN
SNOW SHOWERS RETURN IN THE WAKE OF A COLD FRONT.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1: WEDGE DEVELOPS WITH CLOUDS INCREASING ALONG WITH
RAIN CHANCES. A FEW STORMS POSSIBLE IN NC/SOUTHSIDE VA.
UPPER TROUGH WILL BEGIN MOVING INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS LATER
TODAY WITH STRONG SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT. AT THE SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE WILL STAY OFF THE NORTHEAST COAST BUT EXPECT AN IN-
SITU WEDGE TO DEVELOP WITH EASTERLY FLOW AND INCREASING CLOUDS.
WILL BE A BATTLE BETWEEN THE INCREASING SUN ANGLE VERSUS THE
CLOUDS ON HOW IT WILL IMPACT TEMPS, BUT OVERALL STILL THINK A
PERIOD OF SUNSHINE WILL BOOST TEMPS INTO THE 60S FOR MOST BEFORE
THE LOWER CLOUDS AND RAIN ARRIVES THIS AFTERNOON.
GOING INTO TONIGHT, THE WIND ENERGY STARTS TO INCREASE, AND SOME
ELEVATED INSTABILITY WILL LIKELY LEAD TO A FEW STORMS MAINLY
ALONG/SOUTH OF THE VA/NC BORDER THIS EVENING. MODELS TRYING TO
SHOW WEDGE ERODING OVERNIGHT AS FLOW TURNS TO THE SOUTH, BUT
THIS TIME OF YEAR, IT CAN BE HARD TO ERODE THE WEDGE AT NIGHT,
THOUGH THIS MAY BE A CASE WHERE THE LOW LEVEL JET AND RAIN WINS
OUT. STILL HAVE LIMITED THUNDER UNTIL THE MAIN FRONT MONDAY.
THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE WEATHER ACROSS FAR SW VA INTO
NC MOUNTAIN COUNTIES AND PORTIONS OF THE PIEDMONT OF NC/VA, BUT
THIS IS MAINLY FOR ANY POTENTIAL WEDGE FRONT INDUCED
WIND/TORNADO OCCURRENCES. AT THIS TIME, LOOKS LIKE HIGHER THREAT
WILL BE FURTHER SOUTHWEST AND SOUTHEAST OF US TONIGHT ACROSS THE
TN VALLEY AND SOUTHERN NC.
KEY MESSAGE 2: A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE REGION MONDAY,
WITH THREAT FOR SEVERE WEATHER.
A POWERFUL LOW-PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY
WILL DRIVE A STRONG COLD FRONT ACROSS THE REGION ON MONDAY. THIS
SYSTEM IS SUPPORTED BY A POTENT NEGATIVE-TILT TROUGH, WHICH WILL
ENHANCE ATMOSPHERIC LIFTING. AHEAD OF THE FRONT, A SURGE OF MOISTURE
WILL PUSH DEW POINTS INTO THE UPPER 50S TO LOWER 60S, WHILE A 50-
KNOT SOUTH-SOUTHWESTERLY LOW-LEVEL JET PROVIDES SIGNIFICANT WIND
SHEAR AND BUOYANCY. THESE CONDITIONS WILL INITIALLY SUPPORT LOW-
TOPPED CONVECTION ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS FROM THE MORNING INTO THE
EARLY AFTERNOON, WHERE LIGHTNING MAY BE LIMITED BUT RAINFALL WILL BE
MODERATE TO HEAVY.
AS THE SYSTEM MOVES EAST OF THE BLUE RIDGE, MORE ROBUST, DEEP
CONVECTION IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP IN THE AFTERNOON AND EARLY
EVENING. A QUASI-LINEAR CONVECTIVE SYSTEM (QLCS) IS LIKELY TO
ORGANIZE ALONG THE FRONT, WITH DAMAGING STRAIGHT-LINE WINDS AS THE
PRIMARY THREAT, THOUGH EMBEDDED TORNADOES ARE ALSO POSSIBLE WITHIN
THE LINE. REFLECTING THE HIGH POTENTIAL FOR IMPACTFUL WEATHER, THE
STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS PLACED MOST OF THE MOUNTAIN REGION UNDER
A SLIGHT RISK (LEVEL 2/5), THE FOOTHILLS IN AN ENHANCED RISK (LEVEL
3/5) AND THE PIEDMONT IN A MODERATE RISK (LEVEL 4/5).
KEY MESSAGE 3: COLD TEMPERATURES AND WIND CHILLS ALONG WITH
MOUNTAIN SNOW SHOWERS RETURN IN THE WAKE OF A COLD FRONT.
TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS ARE EXPECTED TO START IN THE MID
TO UPPER 50S MONDAY MORNING, BEFORE CRASHING INTO THE LOW TO MID-30S
BY EVENING AS A SHARP COLD FRONT PASSES. DURING THE AFTERNOON,
PLUNGING TEMPERATURES MAY CAUSE RAIN TO CHANGE OVER TO SNOW,
PARTICULARLY ACROSS THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS. THIS TRANSITION COULD
AFFECT THE EVENING COMMUTE FOR ALL AREAS WEST OF THE BLUE RIDGE,
WHERE RAIN MAY MIX WITH OR TURN TO ALL SNOW. BY MIDNIGHT, SNOW
COVERAGE IS EXPECTED TO SHRINK TOWARD THE WESTERN SLOPES, WITH TOTAL
ACCUMULATIONS RANGING FROM 1 TO 3 INCHES ON THE PEAKS AND WINDWARD
SLOPES, WHILE MOUNTAIN VALLEYS LIKELY SEE A DUSTING TO HALF OF AN
INCH.
RAPID PRESSURE RISES BEHIND THE FRONT WILL USHER IN BLUSTERY
CONDITIONS MONDAY NIGHT, WITH THE STRONGEST WINDS GRADUALLY
SUBSIDING AFTER MIDNIGHT. BY TUESDAY MORNING, TEMPERATURES WILL HAVE
PLUMMETED TO THE UPPER TEENS AND LOWER 20S ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS,
WITH LOW TO MID-20S EXPECTED EAST OF THE BLUE RIDGE. BITTER WIND
CHILLS BETWEEN 0F AND 10F ARE ANTICIPATED IN THE MOUNTAINS, WHILE
THE FOOTHILLS AND PIEDMONT WILL FEEL LIKE 15F TO 20F. SNOW SHOWERS
WILL TAPER OFF TUESDAY MORNING, LEADING TO A COLD DAY WITH HIGHS
ONLY REACHING THE UPPER 20S TO LOW 30S WEST OF THE BLUE RIDGE AND
THE LOW TO MID-40S TO THE EAST.
AVIATION /12Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PERSIST THROUGH EARLY THIS
AFTERNOON. LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL START TRACKING NORTHWARD WITH
A WEDGE OF COOL AIR AT THE SURFACE DEVELOPING. CEILINGS DROP
EAST OF THE MOUNTAINS BY 15-17Z TO LOW END VFR/HIGH END MVFR,
REACHING BLF/LWB BY 18-20Z. EXPECT CEILINGS TO CONTINUE
LOWERING TO LESS THAN 2KFT AFTER 21Z. EAST TO SOUTHEASTERLY
WINDS WILL ALSO INCREASE AFTER MID MORNING, GUSTS INTO THE 20 TO
30 KNOT RANGE BY SUNDAY AFTERNOON ALONG AND WEST OF THE BLUE
RIDGE. LLWS POSSIBLE THIS MORNING AND AGAIN LATE TONIGHT.
RAIN WILL START TO DEVELOP BY LATE IN THE AFTERNOON AT DAN
REACHING ALL TAF SITES IN THE EVENING, BUT TAPERING OFF
OVERNIGHT BEFORE MAIN FRONT WITH SHOWERS/STORMS MOVES IN AFTER
12Z MONDAY. THE RAIN WILL OVERALL DROP VSBYS TO 3-6SM, BUT CIGS
ONCE THE RAIN STARTS TANK BELOW 1KFT. AS WINDS START TO TURN
SOUTH LATE IN THE PERIOD CIGS MAY RISE BACK TO MVFR FROM ROA/BCB
TO BLF/LWB.
EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...
A STRONG COLD FRONT PUSHES THROUGH THE AREA MONDAY, ACCOMPANIED
BY SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS, SOME OF WHICH COULD BE STRONG TO
SEVERE WITH DAMAGING WINDS THE MAIN THREAT ESPECIALLY ALONG/EAST
OF BCB/ROA. AVIATION OPERATIONS WILL BE LIKELY BE IMPACTED AT
TIMES. ALL TERMINALS WILL EXPERIENCE A DOWNPOUR OF RAIN AND A
WIND SHIFT, HIGH LIKELIHOOD OF LLWS AND TURBULENCE. RAPIDLY
FALLING TEMPERATURES BEHIND THE FRONT MAY CAUSE THE RAIN TO
CHANGE TO SNOW ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS MONDAY EVENING WITH GUSTY
NORTHWEST WINDS CONTINUING MONDAY NIGHT AND INTO TUESDAY.
CONDITIONS LOOK TO IMPROVE TO VFR AGAIN BY TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH
THURSDAY.
RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
VA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
WV...NONE.
DISCUSSION...RCS/WP
AVIATION...AS/PM/WP
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