862
FXUS61 KRNK 011748
AFDRNK
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA
148 PM EDT MON JUN 1 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
ADJUSTED POPS FOR ISOLATED SHOWERS MOVING ACROSS THE AREA.
RAIN CHANCES HAVE SLIGHTLY DECREASED FOR THE MOUNTAINS
TOMORROW.
KEY MESSAGES
KEY MESSAGE 1: SCATTERED MOUNTAIN SHOWERS/STORMS ON TUESDAY, QUIET WEATHER FOR
THE REST OF THE WEEK AS TEMPERATURES SLOWLY RISE.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1...SCATTERED MOUNTAIN SHOWERS/STORMS ON TUESDAY, QUIET WEATHER FOR
THE REST OF THE WEEK AS TEMPERATURES SLOWLY RISE.
WEATHER REMAINS MOSTLY QUIET ACROSS THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON,
ALTHOUGH A FEW ISOLATED SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE THROUGH THE
AREA THANKS TO AN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH ACROSS THE EASTERN CONUS.
NORMALLY, THIS WOULD ALLOW FOR MORE ACTIVE WEATHER, HOWEVER, A
SURFACE HIGH IS PUSHING IN FROM THE NORTH, KEEPING SOME DRY AIR
IN PLACE, AND SUPPRESSING MOST CONVECTION. ANY LIGHT SHOWERS
DISSIPATE BY THIS EVENING, WITH QUIET BUT MOSTLY CLOUDY WEATHER
OVERNIGHT.
TOMORROW, AN INVERTED TROUGH DEVELOPS FORM A SURFACE LOW IN THE DEEP
SOUTH, AND WILL RUN NORTH ALONG THE APPALACHIANS. MOISTURE WILL
BE LIMITED, BUT THE SURFACE TROUGH ALONG WITH A DEEPENING
UPPER-LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL ALLOW FOR SOME SHOWERS/STORMS
TO DEVELOP DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS. COVERAGE WILL NOT BE
WIDESPREAD, AND ANY STORMS WILL NOT REACH SEVERE LEVELS. RAIN
CHANCES HAVE SLIGHTLY TRENDED DOWN, BUT ANYWHERE ALONG/WEST OF
THE BLUE RIDGE COULD SEE SOME LIGHT RAINFALL. HIGH TEMPERATURES
WILL BE BELOW NORMAL TOMORROW, IN THE 60S/70S, THANKS TO THE
HIGH TO THE NORTH WEDGING IN ACROSS THE AREA.
ONCE THE SCATTERED SHOWERS/STORMS TAPER OFF TUESDAY EVENING,
HIGH PRESSURE FROM CANADA CONTINUES TO PUSH SOUTH, ALLOWING A
SLOW WARMUP TO OCCUR AS SKIES CLEAR WEDNESDAY. BY THURSDAY,
HIGHS WILL BE BACK AROUND NORMAL, IN THE 70S/80S, AS THE HIGH
CENTERS OVER THE MID-ATLANTIC. QUIET AND DRY WEATHER PERSISTS
FROM WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY, AS UPPER-LEVEL RIDGING ALONG
WITH THE SURFACE HIGH KEEP DRY AIR AND CLEAR SKIES OVERHEAD. THE
NEXT CHANCE OF RAINFALL WON'T BE UNTIL SUNDAY AFTERNOON, AS THE
SURFACE HIGH PUSHES OFFSHORE INTO THE WESTERN ATLANTIC, WITH A
WARM, MOIST SOUTHERLY FLOW ALLOWS SUMMER-LIKE WEATHER TO RETURN
TO OUR AREA. DAILY SHOWERS/STORMS WILL BE FORECAST INTO EARLY
NEXT WEEK, AND HIGHS WILL RISE INTO THE 90S FOR THE PIEDMONT.
AVIATION /18Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/
AREA-WIDE VFR FLIGHT CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON,
THOUGH AN ISOLATED BRIEF SHOWER CANNOT BE RULED OUT. ANY SHOWERS
DISSIPATE THIS EVENING, WITH MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES, BUT VFR CIGS
CONTINUING THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. WINDS STAY SLIGHTLY
ELEVATED FOR TONIGHT AND TOMORROW, WITH GUSTS OF 10-15 KNOTS AT
TIMES, THOUGH NORTHERLY WINDS TONIGHT BECOME EASTERLY TOMORROW.
DAN/LYH WILL SEE HIGHER WINDS OF NEAR 10 KNOTS, GUSTING TO
15-20 KNOTS. SHOWERS/STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE TOMORROW AFTERNOON
NEAR THE END OF THE TAF PERIOD, MAINLY AFFECTING BLF/LWB, WITH
SUB-VFR POSSIBLE.
CONFIDENCE IN THE ABOVE FORECAST IS MODERATE TO HIGH.
EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...
SCATTERED SHOWERS/STORMS WILL DEVELOP TUESDAY AFTERNOON ACROSS THE
MOUNTAINS, POTENTIALLY AFFECTING ALL TERMINALS EXCEPT DAN/LYH.
STORMS WILL NOT BE SEVERE NOR WIDESPREAD, BUT WHEN NEAR A TERMINAL,
WILL BRING SUB-VFR CONDITIONS FOR A BRIEF TIME. RAIN TAPERS OFF
TUESDAY EVENING, WITH HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN, KEEPING DRY AND
QUIET CONDITIONS ACROSS ALL TERMINALS FOR SEVERAL DAYS. VFR
CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST THROUGH AT LEAST SATURDAY, WITH THE ONLY
POTENTIAL DROP IN FLIGHT CONDITIONS BEING PATCHY NIGHTTIME FOG,
MAINLY FOR THE MOUNTAIN VALLEYS, WHICH MAINLY WOULD AFFECT LWB.
OTHERWISE, PLEASANT WEATHER CONTINUES.
RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
VA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
WV...NONE.
DISCUSSION...JCB
AVIATION...JCB
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