170
FXUS61 KRNK 312314
AFDRNK
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA
714 PM EDT SAT MAY 31 2025
SYNOPSIS
WINDS DIMINISH TONIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE BEGINS TO BUILD ACROSS
THE FORECAST AREA. IT WILL REMAIN UNSEASONABLY COOL HOWEVER THROUGH
THE WEEKEND. A SIGNIFICANT WARM-UP IS EXPECTED NEXT WEEK,
FAVORING ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES FOR TUESDAY AND BEYOND. THE
WEEK AS A WHOLE IS ALSO LOOKING DRY, WITH NO SIGNIFICANT CHANCE
OF RAIN UNTIL LATE IN THE WEEK.
NEAR TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/
AS OF 709 PM EDT SATURDAY...
KEY MESSAGES:
1) WINDS DIMINISH AS DO SHOWER CHANCES
2) MAINLY DRY SUNDAY
SHOWERS LINED UP ALONG A VORT TRACK FROM SOUTHEAST KY INTO THE
NC MOUNTAINS AND ON INTO THE CENTRAL PIEDMONT OF NC. SHOWERS
WERE DIMINISHING AND WIND SPEEDS SHOULD ALSO DROP OFF DURING THE
NIGHT. COULD SEE TEMPS SINK AS LOW AS THE UPPER 30S IN THE
GREENBRIER VALLEY, BUT MOST WILL BE IN THE IN THE 40S. PATCHY
FROST CANNOT BE RULED OUT IN THE GREENBRIER VALLEY.
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
AN UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER THE NORTHEAST CORNER OF THE US
STRETCHES SOUTH INTO THE CAROLINAS TODAY. SHORTWAVES, ROUNDING
THE BASE OF THE TROUGH AND WITH THE HELP FROM DIURNAL HEATING,
WILL PRODUCE A FEW SHALLOW SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ALONG
HIGHWAY 460 WEST OF THE BLUE RIDGE EARLY THIS AFTERNOON AND THEN
ALONG AND SOUTH OF THE VA/NC BORDER LATER THIS AFTERNOON. WITH
COLD AIR ALOFT (FREEZING LEVEL IS LESS THAN 8KFT), STORMS COULD
PRODUCE SMALL HAIL AND/OR GUSTY WINDS.
JUST NORTH OF THE BASE, DRY AIR IS WRAPPING AROUND THE LOW.
THIS WESTERLY DOWNSLOPING FLOW WILL HELP TEMPERATURES WARM INTO
THE MID TO UPPER 70S EAST OF THE BLUE RIDGE. UPSLOPE FLOW AND
DIURNAL HEATING WILL HELP KEEP CLOUDS ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS INTO
THIS EVENING. HIGHS WEST OF THE BLUE RIDGE WILL RANGE FROM THE
MID 60S TO THE LOWER 70S.
COLD AIR ADVECTION AND NORTHWEST CROSS-BARRIER JET WILL BRING
BREEZY CONDITIONS TO THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. WINDS
COULD GUST AS HIGH AS 45 MPH, MAINLY ALONG AND WEST OF THE BLUE
RIDGE. ONCE WE LOSE HEATING THIS EVENING, WINDS WILL DIMINISH.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL SETTLE OVER THE AREA LATE TONIGHT WITH WINDS
DECOUPLING BY SUNRISE. LOWS TONIGHT WILL DIP INTO THE 40S.
THE WEATHER PATTERN FOR SUNDAY LOOKS THE SAME, HOWEVER, THE LOW
OVER THE NORTHEAST EXPANDS IN AREAL COVERAGE. THIS WILL PLACE
THE TROUGH BASE AND SHORTWAVE TRACK INTO NC/SC IN THE AFTERNOON
AND EVENING. AGAIN, NORTH OF THE BASE, DRY WESTERLY FLOW WILL
HAVE TEMPERATURES EAST OF THE BLUE RIDGE IN THE MID TO UPPER 70S
AND UPPER 60S TO LOWER 70S WEST. WINDS WILL BE BREEZY BUT NOT
AS STRONG AS TODAY.
SHORT TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/
AS OF 120 PM EDT SATURDAY...
KEY MESSAGES:
1) HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVES IN TO PROVIDE CALM WEATHER AND
CLEAR SKIES.
2) WARMING TREND TO START
A LARGE SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL MOVE INTO THE EASTERN
CONUS AND DOMINATE MOST OF EARLY NEXT WEEK. WHILE THE CENTER OF
THIS SYSTEM MAY MOVE OUT INTO THE ATLANTIC OCEAN BY THE MIDDLE
OF NEXT WEEK, A WESTERN PORTION MAY STICK AROUND THE MID-
ATLANTIC. THIS SYSTEM WILL BRING IN CLEAR SKIES AND CALM WEATHER
FOR THE REGION. COMBINED WITH 500MB RIDGING BUILDING OVER THE
EASTERN UNITED STATES (WITH INCREASING HEIGHTS UP TO 590DM)
THERE WILL BE A CONSIDERABLE WARMING TREND ACROSS THE REGION.
HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL STEADILY INCREASE TO BRING THE WARMEST
TEMPERATURES IN THE UPPER 70S TO LOWER 80S. NEEDLESS TO SAY, IT
WILL FEEL MORE LIKE SPRING COMPARED TO THE PREVIOUSLY
UNSEASONABLY COOL MORNINGS.
SOME VORTICITY MAY RIDE THE RIDGE AROUND EARLY MONDAY MORNING
BUT THE AIR WILL BE SO DRY (PWATS AS LOW AS 0.5 INCHES") AND THE
AIR SO STABLE, PRECIPITATION DEVELOPMENT IS VERY UNLIKELY.
LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/
AS OF 1220 PM EDT SATURDAY...
KEY MESSAGES:
1) WARMING TREND TO CONTINUE.
2) NEXT BEST CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION LATE NEXT WEEK.
THE WARMING TREND THAT STARTS EARLY NEXT WEEK WILL CONTINUE
INTO THE REST OF THE WEEK AS THE RIDGING AND SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE SYSTEM MAINTAIN THEIR PRESENCE. THE CENTER OF THE LARGE
SURFACE HIGH WILL LIKELY BE MORE INTO THE ATLANTIC OCEAN BUT
WILL STILL BE STRETCHED WEST ENOUGH TO INFLUENCE THE AIR OVER
THE MID-ATLANTIC. AS A RESULT, CLEAR AND CALM SKIES WILL RESUME
UNTIL A FRONTAL SYSTEM APPROACHES BY LATE NEXT WEEK. PRIOR TO
THE FRONT'S ARRIVAL, HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO SLOWLY
INCREASE WITH THE WARMEST TEMPERATURES IN THE PIEDMONT CLOSE TO
90 DEGREES. THE REGION, IN GENERAL, CAN EXPECT HIGH TEMPERATURES
TO BE IN THE 80S FOR THE LATTER HALF OF NEXT WEEK. MOISTURE
WILL START TO BUILD BACK UP WITH PWATS RISING AND DEW POINTS
RETURNING INTO THE 60S. BY THE TIME THE FRONT ARRIVES,
CONDITIONS WILL BE FAVORABLE FOR WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION BUT IT
IS TOO EARLY TO KNOW THE EXACT TIMING AND HAZARDS ASSOCIATED
WITH IT.
AVIATION /23Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/
AS OF 710 PM EDT SATURDAY...
GUSTY WEST-NORTHWEST WINDS DIMINISH THIS EVENING WHILE VFR
CONDITIONS PREVAIL. SMOKE FROM WILDFIRES IN CANADA WILL PUSH
ACROSS THE AREA, SO VSBYS MUCH HIGHER UP IN ALTITUDE MAY BE
IMPACTED.
SHOULD BE VFR SUNDAY BUT SMOKE AGAIN POSSIBLE ALOFT.
EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...
VFR NEXT WEEK, THOUGH CANNOT RULE OUT SOME VALLEY FOG AT
LWB/BCB.
RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
VA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
WV...NONE.
SYNOPSIS...RCS/WP
NEAR TERM...RCS/WP
SHORT TERM...CG
LONG TERM...CG
AVIATION...RCS/WP
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