481
FXUS61 KRNK 020630
AFDRNK
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA
230 AM EDT SUN AUG 2 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
A FLOOD WATCH HAS BEEN EXTENDED TO ALL COUNTIES IN NW NC, SW VA,
AND SE WV ALONG AND NORTHWEST OF A PILOT MOUNTAIN, NC TO
LYNCHBURG, VA LINE THROUGH EARLY MONDAY MORNING FOR INSTANCES OF
FLASH FLOODING.
KEY MESSAGES
1) LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODING ONGOING AND CONTINUES TO BE
POSSIBLE TODAY AND TONIGHT WITH NUMEROUS ROUNDS OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED.
2) UNSETTLED WEATHER CONTINUES THROUGH MUCH OF THE WEEK.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1...LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODING ONGOING AND
CONTINUES TO BE POSSIBLE TODAY AND TONIGHT WITH NUMEROUS ROUNDS
OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED.
THERE IS ONGOING SIGNIFICANT FLASH FLOODING OCCURRING OVER
PORTIONS OF NW NC AND SW VA, INCLUDING THE MOUNT AIRY AND PILOT
MOUNTAIN AREAS. THIS INCLUDES WATER RESCUES, CARS CAUGHT IN
FLOOD WATERS, AND WATER INUNDATING ROADS AND BUILDINGS.
MESOANALYSIS SHOWS A STRONG SOUTHEASTERLY LLJ INTERACTING WITH
THE HIGHER TERRAIN ACROSS THE AREA IN THE VICINITY OF A WARM
FRONT. VERY HIGH RAINFALL RATES HAVE BEEN INDICATIVE OF THIS
ACTIVITY, WITH RAINFALL TOTALS SO FAR OF 5 TO 7 INCHES IN SOME
AREAS. THERE IS RECENTLY SOME WEAKENING OF THE COLDER CLOUD
TOPS, SO THE FLASH FLOOD THREAT APPEARS TO BE LOWER THAN EARLIER
TONIGHT. STILL, EXPECT AREAS OF 2 TO 4 INCHES OF RAIN TO BE
POSSIBLE AS CELLS CONTINUE TO TRAIN THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS.
THE INCREASED LIFTING FOR ASCENT AS THE TROUGH AXIS APPROACHES
TODAY AND TONIGHT WILL TRIGGER ADDITIONAL SHOWERS AND STORMS.
THE STRONG SSE UPSLOPE FLOW WILL CONTINUE TO ENHANCE THE RAIN
EFFICIENCY AND SUPPORT CELL REGENERATION, LEADING TO A CONTINUED
HIGH CHANCE FOR FLASH FLOODING, ESPECIALLY ALONG HIGHER
TERRAIN. A FEW CELLS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING MAY ALSO CONTAIN
DAMAGING WINDS.
PER COORDINATION WITH NEIGHBORING OFFICES AND WITH GUIDANCE FROM
WPC, HAVE EXTENDED THE FLOOD WATCH TO ALL COUNTIES IN NW NC, SW
VA, AND SE WV IN OUR AREA ALONG AND NORTHWEST OF A PILOT MOUNTAIN,
NC TO LYNCHBURG, VA LINE THROUGH EARLY MONDAY MORNING FOR
INSTANCES OF FLASH FLOODING.
KEY MESSAGE 2...UNSETTLED WEATHER CONTINUES THROUGH MUCH OF THE
WEEK.
THE CLOSED LOW WILL GRADUALLY OPEN UP AS IT MOVES FROM NEAR
IL/IN TOWARDS THE TN VALLEY AND MID ATLANTIC REGION THROUGH
MONDAY. MODELS HAVE THE BASE VORTICITY MAXIMUM CUTTING OFF
OVER THE DEEP SOUTH BY TUESDAY MORNING, REMAINING IN THE REGION
AND CONTINUING TO HELP TRIGGER SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. AT THE
SURFACE, SURFACE LOW PRESSURE LIFTS NORTHEAST FROM IL/IN BUT
STRONG SOUTHERLY FLOW AND A NE TO SW ORIENTED FRONT STALLS IN
THE FORECAST AREA, AT LEAST FOR TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY. THIS
WILL CONTINUE TO ENHANCE RAINFALL RATES AND POSE MOSTLY A FLASH
FLOOD THREAT, ALTHOUGH THE OCCASIONAL STRONG CELL WITH DAMAGING
WINDS WILL BE POSSIBLE. AFTER THAT, WE STILL HAVE DAILY
AFTERNOON AND EVENING RAIN CHANCES, WITH NO REAL A FROPA
BRINGING AN END TO THE INFLUX OF MOISTURE.
AVIATION /06Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/
A WARM FRONT WAS LIFTING INTO THE AREA EARLY THIS MORNING, AND
ALONG WITH AN INCREASING LLJ CONTINUED TO SUPPORT LIGHT TO
MODERATE AND SOMETIMES HEAVY SHOWERS. RAIN WILL LOWER CIGS
TO IFR/LIFR IN THE NEXT 2 TO 3 HOURS FOR MOST TERMINALS, AND
AROUND 10Z FOR KDAN. PATCHY FOG WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE IN SPOTS
THROUGH MID-MORNING SUNDAY. SCATTERED RAIN CHANCES PERSIST
THROUGH THE END OF THE TAF PERIOD AT ALL TERMINALS TOMORROW WITH
PERIODS OF HEAVY RAINFALL LEADING TO SUB-MVFR CONDITIONS AT
TIMES.
SOUTHEAST WINDS DIMINISH OVERNIGHT, THOUGH OCCASIONAL GUSTS ARE
POSSIBLE. WINDS REMAIN OUT OF THE SOUTHEAST SUNDAY WITH GUSTS TO
15 KNOTS OR SO, HIGHER NEAR THUNDERSTORMS.
EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...
SHOWER/STORM CHANCES WILL STICK AROUND SUNDAY EVENING, AS A
COLD FRONT MOVES INTO THE AREA. THE FRONT STALLS, ALLOWING DAILY
CHANCES OF RAIN TO CONTINUE, KEEPING LIKELY SUB-VFR FLIGHT
CONDITIONS IN PLACE AT TIMES THROUGH THE WEEK AHEAD. OVERNIGHT
PATCHY FOG WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE EACH MORNING.
HYDROLOGY
WE CONTINUE TO SEE A STRONG SIGNAL FOR FLASH FLOODING DUE TO A
COMBINATION OF STRONG MID AND UPPER LEVEL FORCING, NUMEROUS
SURFACE BOUNDARIES, A STRONG LLJ PERPENDICULAR TO THE TERRAIN,
AND HIGH MOISTURE CONTENT. THE FLOOD WATCH HAD BEEN EXTENDED TO
INCLUDE ALL COUNTIES IN NW NC, SW VA, AND SE WV IN OUR AREA
ALONG AND NORTHWEST OF A PILOT MOUNTAIN, NC TO LYNCHBURG, VA
LINE THROUGH EARLY MONDAY MORNING FOR INSTANCES OF FLASH
FLOODING. TRAINING CELLS AND HIGH RAIN RATES MAY RESULT IN
TOTALS OF 2 TO 4 INCHES, WITH HIGHER AMOUNTS POSSIBLE,
ESPECIALLY ALONG EASTWARD FACING TERRAIN.
RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
VA...FLOOD WATCH THROUGH LATE TONIGHT FOR VAZ007-009>020-022>024-
032>035-043.
NC...FLOOD WATCH THROUGH LATE TONIGHT FOR NCZ001>004-018>020.
WV...FLOOD WATCH THROUGH LATE TONIGHT FOR WVZ042>044-507-508.
DISCUSSION...SH
AVIATION...SH
HYDROLOGY...SH
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