095
FXUS61 KRNK 121041
AFDRNK
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA
641 AM EDT TUE MAY 12 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
FROST ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR GREENBRIER COUNTY IN WEST
VIRGINIA, AND FOR BATH COUNTY IN VIRGINIA FOR TONIGHT INTO
TUESDAY MORNING.
PATCHY DENSE FOG IN THE PIEDMONT AND RIVER VALLEYS THROUGH
TUESDAY MORNING.
KEY MESSAGES
1. SHOWERS AND STORMS WEDNESDAY, SOME COULD BE STRONG TO
SEVERE. AFTERNOON SHOWERS/STORMS POSSIBLE ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS OVER
THE WEEKEND.
2. BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES THROUGH FRIDAY. ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPERATURES, WITH NEAR RECORD TEMPERATURES, EARLY NEXT WEEK.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1: SHOWERS AND STORMS WEDNESDAY, SOME COULD BE STRONG TO
SEVERE. AFTERNOON SHOWERS/STORMS POSSIBLE ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS OVER
THE WEEKEND.
AFTER A DRY DAY ON TUESDAY, SHOWERS AND SOME STORMS RETURN TO THE
FORECAST FOR WEDNESDAY. A TROUGH WILL DIG SOUTHWARD OVER THE OHIO
VALLEY, AND A SURFACE LOW MOVES EASTWARD INTO THE GREAT LAKES,
BRINGING A COLD FRONT THROUGH THE MID ATLANTIC. MODEST MOISTURE
ADVECTION AHEAD OF THE FRONT WILL BRING DEWPOINTS IN THE LOW 50S, UP
FROM THE 30S AND 40S, AND TEMPERATURES WILL RISE INTO THE MID 60S TO
MID 70S. CAM GUIDANCE SHOWS A FAIRLY NARROW ZONE WHERE MUCAPE
INCREASES TO AROUND 500 J/KG ALONG THE FRONT, LIMITED BY THE LACK OF
SUBSTANTIAL MOISTURE IN THE REGION, AND ANYWHERE FROM 30 TO 50 KNOTS
OF BULK SHEAR AGAIN WITH THE FRONT. THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK (LEVEL
1 OF 5) FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS, WITH THE GREATEST THREAT BEING
DAMAGING WINDS. MOST OF THE CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY WILL BE DURING THE
AFTERNOON HOURS, DIMINISHING WITH THE LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING AFTER
SUNSET, BUT A FEW STORMS MAY LINGER INTO THE NIGHT IN THE PIEDMONT
AND SOUTHSIDE.
HIGH PRESSURE MOVES INTO THE AREA BEHIND THE FRONT, BRINGING DRY
WEATHER TO END THE WORK WEEK. AS THE CENTER OF THE HIGH MOVES
OFFSHORE BY THE WEEKEND AND SOME RIDGING STARTS TO EXPAND INTO THE
AREA, WILL SEE INCREASING WARM AIR AND MOISTURE ADVECTION VIA THE
SOUTH TO SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW. SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES
INCREASE DURING THE AFTERNOONS OVER THE WEEKEND, BUT WILL BE MAINLY
TERRAIN DRIVEN ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS, WITH NO STRONG FORCING
MECHANISM TO PROMPT MORE ORGANIZATION TO THE STORMS.
KEY MESSAGE 2: BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES THROUGH FRIDAY. ABOVE
NORMAL TEMPERATURES, WITH NEAR RECORD TEMPERATURES, EARLY NEXT WEEK.
PERSISTENT TROUGHING WILL BE IN PLACE OVER THE EASTERN US FOR MOST
OF THE WORK WEEK, WITH A FEW UPPER LOWS ROTATING THROUGH TO AMPLIFY
THE PATTERN. THIS WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES OVER THE AREA MOSTLY A FEW
DEGREES BELOW NORMAL, WITH HIGHS IN THE 60S AND 70S. THURSDAY WILL
BE COLDER, IN THE WAKE OF A COLD FRONT, WHERE NORTHWESTERLY FLOW
WILL KEEP HIGHS IN THE 50S AND 60S. THURSDAY NIGHT/FRIDAY MORNING,
AS HIGH PRESSURE BECOMES CENTERED OVERHEAD, COULD SEE MORE PATCHY
FROST IN THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS, WHERE TEMPERATURES LOOK TO FALL BACK
INTO THE 30S.
HOWEVER, BY THE WEEKEND, THE PATTERN FLIPS, WITH INCREASING 500MB
HEIGHTS. THE SURFACE HIGH SLIDES OFFSHORE, AND THE SOUTH TO
SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW WILL ADVECT WARMER AND MORE MOIST AIR INTO THE
REGION. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL INCREASE A FEW DEGREES EACH DAY,
STARTING FRIDAY, WHEN HIGHS WILL BE IN THE 60S AND 70S, THEN 70S AND
80S BY SATURDAY, THEN 80S TO NEAR 90, LOW 90S IN THE PIEDMONT BY
EARLY NEXT WEEK.
AVIATION /12Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/
MVFR TO LIFR CIGS AND VSBYS ARE CURRENTLY BEING OBSERVED AT MOST
PIEDMONT AND EASTERN MOUNTAIN TERMINALS THIS MORNING. THIS
INCLUDES BCB, DAN, LYH AND ROA. THESE RESTRICTIONS LOOK TO
LINGER THROUGH THE NEXT FEW HOURS AS FOG AND LOW LEVEL CLOUDS
CONTINUE TO EXPAND ACROSS THE VA PIEDMONT. ONCE THESE
RESTRICTIONS LIFT DURING THE 12-14 UTC TIMEFRAME, VFR CONDITIONS
LOOK TO RETURN TO ALL TERMINALS AS HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS OVER
THE REGION TODAY. LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS LOOK TO BECOME
SOUTHERLY/SOUTHWESTERLY BY THE LATE MORNING AND EARLY AFTERNOON
HOURS AT ALL TERMINALS, WITH WINDS CONTINUING TO REMAIN LIGHT AT
AROUND 5 KNOTS OR LESS. OVERALL, EXPECT FLIGHT RESTRICTIONS
EARLY THAT SHOULD ERODE QUICKLY DURING THE MORNING HOURS AT ALL
TERMINALS.
EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...
A COLD FRONT ARRIVES TO THE REGION LATE WEDNESDAY, WHICH WILL BRING
SCATTERED SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND
EVENING AT ALL TERMINALS. THIS WILL ALSO LEAD TO INCREASED WIND
GUSTS IN THE 15-20 KNOT RANGE OUT OF THE SOUTHWEST AT ALL TERMINALS
DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS. EXPECT SUB-VFR CONDITIONS IN
AND AROUND THESE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS, AS WELL AS WHEN THE COLD
FRONT PASSES THROUGH THE REGION. VFR CONDITIONS LOOK TO RETURN ON
THURSDAY FOR MOST TERMINALS; HOWEVER, NORTHWEST FLOW BEHIND THE COLD
FRONT ON THURSDAY MORNING MAY LEAD TO SOME REDUCED CIGS AND MVFR
CONDITIONS FOR BLF AND LWB. THESE RESTRICTIONS SHOULD LIFT BY THE
AFTERNOON ON THURSDAY, WITH VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE END
OF THE WORK WEEK. ISOLATED AFTERNOON MOUNTAIN SHOWERS/STORMS COULD
AFFECT BLF/LWB EACH DAY THIS WEEKEND.
RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
VA...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR VAZ013-014-
016-017-032>034-043>045-058.
FROST ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR VAZ020.
NC...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR NCZ004>006.
WV...FROST ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR WVZ507-508.
DISCUSSION...AS
AVIATION...EB
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