109
FXUS61 KRNK 091755
AFDRNK
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA
155 PM EDT THU APR 9 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
THE FORECAST REMAINS ON TRACK, WITH THE PRIMARY ADJUSTMENT
BEING A CONTINUED DECREASE IN FORECAST DEWPOINTS. CURRENT MODELS
ARE STRUGGLING TO CAPTURE THE FULL EXTENT OF THE DRY AIRMASS
AND THE IMPACT OF THE AFTERNOON MIXING. THIS DISCREPANCY IS
MOST SIGNIFICANT IN THE FIRE WEATHER FORECAST, WHERE THE LOWER
DEWPOINTS RESULT IN A MUCH HIGHER TEMPERATURE-DEWPOINT
DEPRESSION AND, CONSEQUENTLY, LOWER RELATIVE HUMIDITY.
KEY MESSAGES
1. A DRY WARMING TREND IS EXPECTED THROUGH THE WEEKEND CULMINATING
IN SUMMER-LIKE HEAT BY THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1: A DRY WARMING TREND IS EXPECTED THROUGH THE
WEEKEND CULMINATING IN SUMMER-LIKE HEAT BY THE MIDDLE OF NEXT
WEEK.
HIGH PRESSURE IS SET TO DOMINATE OUR WEATHER INTO NEXT WEEK. A
WEAK FRONT ON SATURDAY WILL BRING SOME CLOUDS AND ISOLATED
SHOWERS, BUT THE WEEKEND AS A WHOLE IS LOOKING DRY. IN GENERAL,
EXPECTING TEMPERATURES TO TREND WARMER THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
FOR NEXT WEEK, THE DEVELOPMENT OF SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS ACROSS THE
REGION WILL ADVECT AN EVEN WARMER AIRMASS INTO THE REGION.
AFTERNOON HIGHS BY THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK ARE EXPECTED TO CLIMB
WELL ABOVE NORMAL, FEELING MORE LIKE MID-TO-LATE JUNE.
FORTUNATELY, HUMIDITY LEVELS WILL REMAIN RELATIVELY LOW COMPARED
TO TYPICAL SUMMER MUGGINESS.
THAT SAID, EXPECT WORSENING DROUGHT AND FIRE RISK. THE PROLONGED
HEAT AND LACK OF RAIN WILL WORSEN ONGOING DROUGHT CONDITIONS.
THIS ALSO CREATES AN ENVIRONMENT MAKING IT DIFFICULT FOR FIRE
SUPPRESSION; ANY NEW FIRES WILL BE DIFFICULT TO CONTAIN.
THE CLIMATE PREDICTION CENTER (CPC) CONFIRMS THIS DRY, WARM
PATTERN IS LIKELY TO STICK AROUND. BOTH THE 6-10 AND 8-14 DAY
FORECASTS PREDICT A HIGH PROBABILITY OF ABOVE-NORMAL
TEMPERATURES AND BELOW-NORMAL PRECIPITATION. WHILE A FEW WEAK
FRONTS MAY SKIM THE FORECAST AREA NEXT WEEK, THEY ARE NOT
EXPECTED TO PROVIDE ANY SIGNIFICANT RELIEF.
AVIATION /18Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/
CONTINUING HIGH PRESSURE IN THE AREA WILL SUPPRESS CLOUD FORMATION.
EXPECT QUIET VFR CONDITIONS WITH LIGHT WINDS AND NO ACTIVE
WEATHER.
EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...
VFR STATUS TO LIKELY CONTINUE THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK. EVEN WITH
THE FRONT SATURDAY, CHANCES OF SUB-VFR ARE LOW.
FIRE WEATHER
DRY HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE OVER THE AREA FOR THE REMAINDER OF
THIS WEEK AND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. THIS WILL RESULT IN AN
EXTENDED PERIOD OF WARMING AND DRYING WITH LITTLE OR NO RAIN. A
WEAK FRONTAL PASSAGE SATURDAY MAY BRINGS SOME ISOLATED SHOWERS.
WEAK FRONTS MAY TEASE THE AREA AGAIN NEXT WEEK, BUT OVERALL
CHANCES FOR RAIN LOOK MINIMAL FOR THE NEXT 8-14 DAYS. IN GENERAL
EXPECTING MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS WITH AFTERNOON HUMIDITY
MINIMUMS RANGING FROM 25-35%. SOME OF THE SOUTH FACING SLOPES
MAY TEST 20%.
TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO CLIMB WELL ABOVE NORMAL NEXT WEEK.
THIS WILL INCREASE THE RISK OF LARGE, HARD TO CONTROL
WILDFIRES, HEIGHTENED BY SUMMER-LIKE HEAT AND LOW HUMIDITY.
FURTHERMORE, THE HEAT WILL CREATE AN UNSTABLE ATMOSPHERE,
LEADING TO GUSTY AFTERNOON WINDS THAT CAN CAUSE ANY NEW FIRE
STARTS TO SPREAD RAPIDLY.
ALL THINGS CONSIDERED, AFTER THIS WEEKEND, WE WILL LIKELY ENTER
A MULTI-DAY STRETCH WHERE PRESCRIBE FIRE WILL BE DISCOURAGED IN
LIEU OF RESOURCES BEING NEEDED FOR WILDFIRE SUPPRESSION.
RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
VA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
WV...NONE.
DISCUSSION...PM
AVIATION...VFJ
FIRE WEATHER...PM
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.
Main Text Page