697  
FXUS61 KRNK 150058  
AFDRNK  
 
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION  
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA  
858 PM EDT SUN AUG 14 2022  
   
SYNOPSIS
 
 
A STORM SYSTEM APPROACHING THE AREA WILL PROVIDE THE CHANCE FOR  
RAIN AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH MONDAY. THROUGH THE  
REMAINDER OF THE WORKWEEK, TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO BE  
SLIGHTLY COOLER THAN NORMAL, WITH THE POSSIBILITY OF SEEING  
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS EACH DAY.  
 

 
   
NEAR TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/
 
 
AS OF 900 PM EDT SUNDAY...  
 
SHOWERS, LOW CLOUDS, AND AREAS OF FOG LIKELY TONIGHT...  
 
ONLY MINOR ADJUSTMENTS WERE MADE TO TEMPERATURES, POPS AND DEW  
POINT VALUES FOR TONIGHT'S FORECAST. WATER VAPOR SATELLITE  
IMAGERY REVEALS A WELL DEFINED UPPER LEVEL SPEED MAX DIGGING  
INTO EASTERN KY AND WESTERN WV THIS EVENING WITH AN AREA OF  
SURFACE LOW PRESSURE IN EASTERN IN. AS THIS SURFACE LOW DRIFTS  
SOUTHEAST AND OUR FORECAST AREA FALLS UNDER INCREASING UPPER  
LEVEL DIVERGENCE, EXPECT SHOWERS TO CONTINUE TO DEVELOP THROUGH  
THE OVERNIGHT HOURS AND KEPT LIKELY POPS IN PLACE THROUGH EARLY  
MONDAY MORNING.  
 
THE 00Z/15 RNK SOUNDING INDICATED NO CAPE, BUT A PWAT VALUE OF  
1.32 INCHES IS IN THE 75TH PERCENTILE FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR.  
WHILE RAINFALL RATES ARE NOT EXPECTED TO BE HIGH, TRAINING  
SHOWERS MAY LEAD TO LOCALIZED MINOR FLOODING OF LOW LYING AND  
POOR DRAINAGE AREAS. OUTPUT FROM THE NATIONAL WATER MODEL  
SUGGESTS SOME SMALL CREEKS IN SOUTHEAST WV AND SOUTHWEST VA MAY  
EXPERIENCE SOME SHARP RISES LATE TONIGHT/EARLY MONDAY MORNING,  
BUT THE LIMITED AREA PRECLUDES ANY HYDRO HEADLINES TONIGHT.  
 
AS FOR THE CHANCE FOR THUNDER, ISOLATED THUNDER IS STILL  
POSSIBLE ACROSS FAR SOUTHWEST VA AND NW NC WHERE CAPES ARE  
CURRENTLY STILL ESTIMATED TO BE AROUND 500 J/KG.  
 
OTHERWISE, AREAS OF FOG AND LOW CLOUDS WILL ENGULF MOST OF THE  
FORECAST AREA AS HIGH PRESSURE WEDGES INTO THE AREA FROM THE  
NORTHEAST.  
 
A BIT OF AN INTERESTING SETUP TOMORROW WITH LOW PRESSURE AND A  
WEAK WEDGE IN PLACE. A WEAK SURFACE LOW DEVELOPS OVER KENTUCKY  
TONIGHT AND IS PROGGED TO DRIFT INTO THE WESTERN CAROLINAS  
TOMORROW. MEANWHILE, WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL WEDGE SOUTH ALONG  
THE APPALACHIANS. BIGGEST UNCERTAINTY LIES IN THE AMOUNT OF  
DAYTIME HEATING THE AREA SEES TOMORROW, WHICH IN TURN WILL  
RESULT IN THE AMOUNT OF DESTABILIZATION THAT WILL OCCUR. RIGHT  
NOW, MOST LIKELY AREAS TO SEE BETTER HEATING/DESTABILIZATION  
WILL BE ALONG AND SOUTH OF THE VA/NC BORDER WHERE 20-25 KT  
EFFECTIVE BULK SHEAR, MARGINALLY STEEP LAPSE RATES AND MODEST  
MLCAPE OVERLAP. THIS SHOULD PROMOTE AT LEAST A FEW STORM  
CLUSTERS, CAPABLE OF PRODUCING STRONG WINDS AND SOME LOCALIZED  
INSTANCES OF HAIL.  
 
WITH CONTINUED CLOUD COVER AND RAIN CHANCES, EXPECT TEMPERATURES TO  
REMAIN QUITE COOL FOR AUGUST, ESPECIALLY FOR MONDAY WHERE HIGHS  
COULD BE 10-15F BELOW NORMAL.  
 

 
   
SHORT TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
 
 
AS OF 130 PM EDT SUNDAY...  
 
SHOWERS AND STORMS DECREASE BY TUESDAY NIGHT...  
 
SHOWERS AND STORMS CONTINUE INTO MONDAY NIGHT/TUESDAY MORNING AS A  
TRIPLE POINT LOW SLOWLY MOVES TOWARDS COASTAL SC. A SURFACE TROUGH  
EXTENDING NORTH OF THE LOW WILL CONTINUE TO PROVIDE A FOCUS FOR  
CONVECTION, ALTHOUGH IT WILL BECOME LESS WIDESPREAD OVERNIGHT. WITH  
THIS FEATURE IN THE AREA ALONG WITH THE UPPER TROUGH AND MOISTURE  
STILL RANGING FROM ABOUT 1.1" ACROSS SW WV TO 1.4" OVER NORTHERN NC,  
WE WILL HAVE ENOUGH IMPETUS FOR THUNDERSTORMS AGAIN ON TUESDAY.  
THERE WILL BE LESS OVERALL COVERAGE THAN MONDAY, BUT INDIVIDUAL  
SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL HAVE HEAVY RAINFALL.  
 
MODELS ARE SHOWING A DECENT WEDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING ALONG  
THE APPALACHIANS LATE TUESDAY NIGHT FROM THE NORTHWEST, TURNING  
WINDS NORTHERLY AND THEN ENE. EVEN THOUGH WE REMAIN IN THE UPPER  
TROUGH WEDNESDAY, THE MORE ROBUST SHORT WAVES REMAIN JUST OUTSIDE OF  
OUR FORECAST AREA. WITH THE HELP OF THE HIGH PRESSURE WEDGE, IT IS  
LIKELY ANY SHOWERS AND STORMS STAY TO OUR SOUTH AND/OR WEST  
WEDNESDAY. ANY ISOLATED ACTIVITY THAT CAN DEVELOP IN OUR FAR WESTERN  
ZONES/BLUE RIDGE WILL QUICKLY END WITH THE LOSS OF HEATING AND NO  
SEVERE WEATHER IS EXPECTED.  
 
TEMPERATURES TUESDAY WILL BE A GOOD 10-15 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL  
FOR HIGHS. WEDNESDAY WE WILL WARM UP A COUPLE DEGREES WITH MORE  
SUNSHINE.  
 
CONFIDENCE IN THE SHORT TERM FORECAST IS AVERAGE.  
 

 
   
LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/
 
 
AS OF 200 PM EDT SUNDAY...  
 
DAILY SHOWERS AND STORMS...  
 
THURSDAY WILL BE A NEAR REPEAT OF WEDNESDAY BUT JUST A COUPLE  
DEGREES WARMER. THE WEDGE DOES BEGIN TO BREAK DOWN, WITH A WAVE ON  
THE SEMI-PERMANENT FRONT TO OUR SOUTH MOVING OUR WAY. BY FRIDAY THE  
FLOW ALOFT BECOMES MORE SW AS THE MAIN UPPER LOW MOVES TOWARDS NOVA  
SCOTIA. THIS WILL OPEN UP OUR CONNECTION TO ADDITIONAL GULF OF  
MEXICO AND WEST ATLANTIC OCEAN MOISTURE. THURSDAY IT SHOULD BE  
MOSTLY DRY FOR THE SHENANDOAH VALLEY AND THE PIEDMONT, WHILE WESTERN  
AREAS MAY SEE A FEW STORMS. EXPECT THUNDERSTORM CHANCES TO RAMP UP  
FRIDAY THROUGH THE WEEKEND. TRIED TO SHOW DAILY VARIATIONS IN POPS,  
THIS REMAINS A CHALLENGE WITH DIURNAL CONVECTION. SATURDAY LOOKS  
LIKE THE MOST LIKELY CHANCE FOR WIDESPREAD RAINFALL, WITH SUNDAY  
ALSO LOOKING WET.  
 
TEMPERATURES WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE 70S AND 80S FOR HIGHS, BUT  
STILL A FEW DEGREES BELOW NORMAL.  
 
CONFIDENCE IN THE LONG TERM FORECAST IS AVERAGE.  
 

 
   
AVIATION /01Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/
 
 
AS OF 720 PM EDT SUNDAY...  
 
THERE IS HIGH CONFIDENCE THAT FLYING CONDITIONS WILL DETERIORATE  
THIS EVENING AND TONIGHT WITH CEILINGS FALLING TO IFR OR LOWER  
WITH AREAS OF FOG TONIGHT AND EARLY MONDAY AT MVFR TO IFR  
CATEGORIES. SUB-VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN IN PLACE  
THROUGH MONDAY, BUT CONFIDENCE IS LOWER REGARDING THE CEILING  
FORECAST.  
 
AS OF 7 PM EDT, CEILINGS AT KLWB AND KBCB HAVE ALREADY DROPPED  
BELOW VFR AND THIS TREND IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE FOR ALL TAF  
SITES THIS EVENING AND TONIGHT AS AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE ACROSS  
SOUTHERN INDIANA THIS EVENING SLOWLY DRIFTS SOUTHEAST INTO NW NC  
BY MONDAY AFTERNOON. THIS WILL KEEP OUR AREA IN A MOIST  
EAST/SOUTHEAST FLOW WITH PERIODS OF RAIN POSSIBLE THROUGH THE  
ENTIRE TAF PERIOD.  
   
EXTENDED AVIATION DISCUSSION
 
 
RAIN AND STORM CHANCES CONTINUE INTO MONDAY NIGHT WITH ON AND  
OFF SUB-VFR.  
 
SHOWERS/STORMS POSSIBLE TUE-THU MAINLY AFTERNOONS, SO NOT OUT OF  
THE QUESTION FOR SUB-VFR, BUT CONFIDENCE IS HIGHER FOR VFR.  
ALSO, LATE NIGHT/EARLY MORNING FOG MAY BE AN ISSUE AS USUAL AT  
LWB AND PERHAPS BCB, AS WELL AS IF IT RAINS ENOUGH AT THE OTHER  
TERMINALS.  
 

 
   
RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
 
 
VA...NONE.  
NC...NONE.  
WV...NONE.  
 

 
 

 
SYNOPSIS...BMG  
NEAR TERM...BMG/PH  
SHORT TERM...SH  
LONG TERM...SH  
AVIATION...PH  
 
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