404
FXUS61 KRNK 121747
AFDRNK
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA
147 PM EDT SUN JUL 12 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
AVIATION UPDATED.
SUNDAY ADDED TO THE FORECAST.
KEY MESSAGES
KEY MESSAGE 1: SLOW MOVING COLD FRONT AND UPPER LEVEL FORCING WILL
BE THE FOCUS FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS TROUGH MONDAY WITH TEMPERATURES
TRENDING COOLER.
KEY MESSAGE 2: MUCH OF THE AREA WILL BE DRY WITH WARM/HOT CONDITIONS
FOR MID-WEEK.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1: SLOW MOVING COLD FRONT AND UPPER LEVEL FORCING WILL
BE THE FOCUS FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS TROUGH MONDAY WITH TEMPERATURES
TRENDING COOLER EACH DAY.
THIS AFTERNOON A COLD FRONT HAS PUSHED SOUTH OF THE AREA, LOCATED
NEAR THE NC/SC BORDER. AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WAS STILL POSITIONED
OVER THE OHIO AND TENNESSEE VALLEYS.
OVERNIGHT THROUGH MONDAY, THE FRONT IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN TO
OUR SOUTH. HOWEVER, WITH A SLOW APPROACH AND PASSAGE OF THE
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH ACROSS OUR REGION, SHOWERS WILL REMAIN IN OUR
FORECAST THROUGH AT LEAST MONDAY. INSTABILITY WILL BE LIMITED,
SO WHILE NOT IMPOSSIBLE, THUNDERSTORMS WILL FEW AND FAR BETWEEN.
THE BEST CHANCE WILL BE THIS AFTERNOON HEADING INTO THE EVENING
OVER NORTH CAROLINA, CLOSEST TO THE DEPARTING FRONT.
THIS EVENING INTO THE OVERNIGHT, THE SOME OF THE SHOWERS AND STORMS
WILL HAVE THE POTENTIAL OF GENERATING LOCALIZED AMOUNTS OF HEAVY
RAINFALL. STORM MOTION WILL BE NEARLY STATIONARY, LEADING TO
THIS POTENTIAL. HOWEVER, GIVEN FLASH FLOODING GUIDANCE IS STILL
FAIRLY HIGH ACROSS THE AREA, A BROAD FLOOD WATCH IS NOT IN THE
OFFING.
ON MONDAY, LOW LEVEL FLOW WILL GENERALLY BE EASTERLY OFF THE
ATLANTIC. THIS MOISTURE WILL BE LIFTED UPSLOPE ALONG THE EASTERN
FACES OF THE APPALACHIANS, HELPING TO PROVIDE SOME ELEMENT OF
OROGRAPHICAL LIFT FOR RAINFALL DEVELOPMENT AS WELL WORKING IN
TANDEM WITH THE UPPER LEVEL FORCING. PRECIPITATION CHANCES WILL
BE GREATEST IN THE SOUTH, AND LEAST IN THE NORTH.
THANKS TO PLENTY OF CLOUD COVER AND PRECIPITATION, TEMPERATURES ON
MONDAY WILL LIKELY BE SIMILAR OR SLIGHTLY COOLER THAN THOSE
EXPERIENCED TODAY.
MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY, THE AXIS OF THE UPPER SHORTWAVE TROUGH
SHIFTS SOUTHEAST OF THE AREA. WITH THE TROUGH, SO WILL GO THE
CHANCES OF ADDITIONAL SHOWERS. LOOK FOR SHOWERS TO PROGRESSIVELY END
FROM NORTH TO SOUTH DURING THIS TIME PERIOD, PERHAPS STARTING AS
EARLY AS LATE MONDAY AFTERNOON. WITH SUNSHINE RETURNING, LOOK FOR
TEMPERATURES ON TUESDAY MILDER THAN THOSE OF MONDAY, PERHAPS BY AN
AVERAGE OF FIVE TO TEN DEGREES.
KEY MESSAGE 2: MUCH OF THE AREA WILL BE DRY WITH WARM/HOT CONDITIONS
FOR MID-WEEK.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL KEEP MUCH OF THE REGION DRY DURING THE MIDDLE
PART OF THE WEEK. A STRAY SHOWER OR STORM CANNOT BE RULED OUT,
ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE SOUTHERN AND WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE AREA.
THESE REGIONS WILL BE FARTHEST AWAY FROM THE CENTER OF THE HIGH, AND
BY THURSDAY THE NEXT APPROACHING WEATHER SYSTEM WILL BE OVER PARTS
OF THE OHIO AND TENNESSEE VALLEYS. TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO
TREND MILDER EACH DAY, SO THAT BY THURSDAY, VALUES ABOUT FIVE TO TEN
DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL WILL BE COMMON ACROSS THE AREA. WHEN
CONSIDERING HUMIDITY AS WELL, AND WE WILL BE LOOKING AT MUCH OF THE
PIEDMONT OF VIRGINIA AND NORTH CAROLINA EXPERIENCING LATE AFTERNOON
HEAT INDEX VALUES AROUND OR A LITTLE OVER 100 DEGREES.
AVIATION /18Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/
SCATTERED LIGHT TO MODERATE RAIN SHOWERS COVERED PORTIONS OF THE
AREA THIS AFTERNOON BETWEEN ROUGHLY KLWB-KROA-KDAN. THERE HAVE
BEEN ONLY A FEW LIGHTNING STRIKES WITHIN THIS CORRIDOR OVER THE
PAST FEW HOURS, SO WILL BE FOCUSING MORE ON THE SHOWERS ASPECT
IN THE NEARER-TERM IN THE LATEST TAF FORECASTS. ANOTHER AREA OF
SHOWERS WAS STARTING TO ENTER THE AREA, ARRIVING NEAR A KTNB-
KGEV LINE CURRENTLY. CEILINGS ACROSS THE REGION WERE MAINLY A
MIX OF LOW END VFR AND MVFR. THE HEAVIER SHOWERS ARE PRODUCING
SOME LOCALIZED AND SHORT LIVED SUB-MVFR CONDITIONS.
SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE INTO AND THROUGH THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS AND INTO MONDAY MORNING. CEILINGS ARE EXPECTED TO
DROP THROUGH THE NIGHT, REACHING LIFR CONDITIONS AT MOST LOCATIONS.
THESE WILL IMPROVE SLOWLY MONDAY MORNING. ADDITIONALLY, VISIBILITIES
WILL ALSO TREND LOWER THROUGH THE NIGHT, WITH MANY AREAS EXPERIENCE
IFR/MVFR BY DAYBREAK THANKS TO BOTH THE PRECIPITATION AND FOG/MIST.
WINDS WILL GENERALLY BE LIGHT AND VARIABLE OR FROM THE
NORTHEAST.
EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...
EXPECT SHOWERS ENDING HEADING INTO MONDAY NIGHT WITH IMPROVING
FLIGHT CATEGORIES FROM NORTH TO SOUTH. LATE NIGHT/EARLY MORNING
RIVER/VALLEY FOG WILL STILL BE POSSIBLE THOUGH.
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED FOR MOST LOCATIONS TUESDAY THROUGH
FRIDAY. SOME LATE NIGHT/EARLY MORNING VALLEY FOG MAY BE POSSIBLE.
PREVAILING WINDS FOR MOST LOCATIONS DURING THIS PERIOD WILL
GENERALLY BE LESS THAN 7 KTS.
RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
VA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
WV...NONE.
DISCUSSION...DS
AVIATION...DS
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