346  
FXUS61 KRNK 021155  
AFDRNK  
 
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION  
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA  
655 AM EST FRI DEC 2 2022  
   
SYNOPSIS
 
 
LOW PRESSURE TRACKING THROUGH THE ROCKIES TODAY WILL PUSH A COLD  
FRONT AND SHOWERS THROUGH THE REGION ON SATURDAY. HIGH PRESSURE AND  
DRY WEATHER ARE EXPECTED FOR SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT. THE  
NEXT CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION RETURNS ON MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY  
WITH ANOTHER FRONT APPROACHING FROM THE WEST.  
 

 
   
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/
 
 
AS OF 255 AM EST FRIDAY...  
 
SLOWED DOWN ARRIVAL TIME OF RAIN TONIGHT...  
 
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WAS ALONG THE EAST COAST THIS MORNING AND WILL  
CONTINUE TO MOVE EAST TODAY. SOUTHWEST WIND AROUND THE WEST  
SIDE OF THE HIGH WILL INCREASE TODAY AND TONIGHT.  
 
NOT SEEING ENOUGH ELEVATED INSTABILITY ABOVE THE SURFACE BASED  
INVERSION TO INCLUDE ANY THUNDER IN THE FORECAST FOR LATE TONIGHT.  
THE LOW LEVEL JET ALSO RAMPS UP FROM THE SOUTHWEST REACHING 50 TO 60  
KNOTS IN SOUTHEAST WEST VIRGINIA BY SATURDAY MORNING.  
 
MOISTURE WILL ALSO INCREASE DURING THIS TIME FRAME. CLOUDS WILL  
SPREAD INTO THE AREA MAINLY THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING WITH CLOUD  
HEIGHTS LOWERING THROUGHOUT THE NIGHT. THE BEST CHANCE OF RAIN WILL  
BE AFTER MIDNIGHT IN THE MOUNTAINS AND FOOTHILLS WHERE THE  
ATMOSPHERE BECOMES SATURATED. PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES INCREASE TO  
JUST OVER AN INCH BY SATURDAY MORNING AND SURFACE DEW POINTS RISE  
INTO THE 40S.  
 
ENOUGH SUN TODAY AND WARM AIR ADVECTION AT 850MB TO SUPPORT LOWS IN  
THE UPPER 40S TO MID 50S. THE CLOUDS AND SURGE IN DEW POINTS WILL  
RESULT IN SLOWLY RISING TEMPERATURES OVERNIGHT. LOWS WILL BE IN THE  
EVENING.  
 

 
   
SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/
 
 
AS OF 400 AM EST THURSDAY...  
 
SHOWERY SATURDAY AND A COOL SUNDAY...  
 
SHOWERS WILL SPREAD EAST FROM THE MOUNTAINS ON SATURDAY AHEAD OF A  
COLD FRONT. THE FRONT ITSELF WILL PASS DURING THE DAY. WITH THE  
STRONGEST FORCING WITH THIS FRONT LOCATED TO OUR NORTH,  
PRECIPITATION WILL QUICKLY DIMINISH SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND INTO THE  
EVENING AS THE FRONT TRANSITS THE FORECAST AREA. DESPITE CLOUDY AND  
RAINY CONDITIONS, THE SOUTHERLY FLOW AHEAD OF THE FRONT WILL  
MAINTAIN MILDER TEMPERATURES ON SATURDAY, WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER  
50S AND 60S.  
 
BEHIND THE FRONT EXPECT TEMPERATURES TO COOL AND WINDS TO PICK UP  
SOMEWHAT, THOUGH NOT EXPECTING GUSTS IN EXCESS OF 30 MPH EVEN IN THE  
MORE WIND PRONE MOUNTAIN RIDGES. SUNDAY WILL HAVE HIGHS IN THE 40S  
AND LOW 50S, WITH SLOWLY CLEARING SKIES. OVERNIGHT LOWS SUNDAY INTO  
MONDAY WILL BE BELOW FREEZING, AND INTO THE 20S FOR MOST.  
 

 
   
LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/
 
 
AS OF 420 AM EST FRIDAY...  
 
A COUPLE SYSTEMS NEXT WEEK...  
 
A WEAK TROUGHING OR ZONAL SETUP EAST OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER WILL  
KEEP PASSING WAVES OF ENERGY, AND THUS PERIODS OF ACTIVE WEATHER,  
THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA NEXT WEEK. THE FIRST OF THESE WILL LIKELY  
IMPACT US ON MONDAY OR TUESDAY, WITH MOSTLY LIQUID PRECIPITATION.  
SOME COLDER AIR IN THE WV MOUNTAINS COULD PROVIDE FOR LIGHT SNOW.  
 
ANOTHER SHORTWAVE LATER IN THE WEEK LOOKS TO ORIGINATE FROM THE  
SOUTHERN PLAINS AND HEAD NORTHEAST TOWARDS US. TOO FAR OUT TO  
GET A GRIP ON SPECIFIC IMPACTS, BUT ESPECIALLY IN OUR UPPER  
ELEVATIONS, SOME FROZEN PRECIP IS POSSIBLE.  
 
TEMPERATURES IN THIS FORECAST PERIOD WILL BE AT OR A LITTLE BELOW  
NORMAL.  
 

 
   
AVIATION /12Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/
 
 
AS OF 645 AM EST FRIDAY...  
 
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THIS TAF PERIOD.  
 
ONCE THE INVERSION BREAKS THIS MORNING, AROUND 15Z/10AM THE WIND  
WILL BE FROM THE SOUTHWEST WITH SPEEDS LESS THAN 10 KNOTS.  
 
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WAS ALONG THE EAST COAST THIS MORNING AND WILL  
CONTINUE TO MOVE EAST TODAY. SOUTHWEST WIND AROUND THE WEST  
SIDE OF THE HIGH WILL INCREASE TODAY AND TONIGHT.  
 
THE LOW LEVEL JET ALSO RAMPS UP FROM THE SOUTHWEST REACHING 50 TO 60  
KNOTS IN SOUTHEAST WEST VIRGINIA BY SATURDAY MORNING. HAVE ADDED  
LLWS TO THE LOCAL TAFS MAINLY AFTER 03Z/10PM.  
 
MOISTURE WILL ALSO INCREASE DURING THIS TIME FRAME. CLOUDS WILL  
SPREAD INTO THE AREA MAINLY THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING WITH  
CEILINGS LOWERING THROUGHOUT THE NIGHT. EXPECT RAIN AND POSSIBLE  
MVFR CEILINGS TO REACH KLWB AND KBLF AFTER 06Z/1AM.  
 
ABOVE AVERAGE CONFIDENCE FOR WIND, CEILING AND VISIBILITY.  
 
EXTENDED AVIATION DISCUSSION...  
 
SHOWERS, GUSTY WINDS, AND THE SUB-VFR CONDITIONS CONTINUE INTO  
SATURDAY WITH THE PASSAGE OF A COLD FRONT. WINDS TURN THE THE  
WEST THEN NORTHWEST BEHIND THE FRONT WITH WIND SPEEDS  
DIMINISHING ON SATURDAY NIGHT.  
 
VFR CONDITIONS RETURN FOR SUNDAY BEFORE YET ANOTHER FRONT  
BRINGS A CHANCE FOR PRECIPITATION TO THE MID ATLANTIC REGION  
FOR MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR SUB- VFR  
CEILINGS AND VISIBILITY.  
 

 
   
EQUIPMENT
 
 
AS OF 700 PM EST THURSDAY...  
 
DANVILLE (DAN) ASOS IS BACK IN SERVICE. THE WIND SENSOR IS STILL  
OFFLINE AND WILL BE TURNED BACK ON AFTER MAINTENANCE IS  
COMPLETED FRIDAY.  
 

 
   
RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
 
 
VA...NONE.  
NC...NONE.  
WV...NONE.  
 

 
 

 
SYNOPSIS...AMS  
NEAR TERM...AMS  
SHORT TERM...VFJ  
LONG TERM...WP  
AVIATION...AMS/PM  
EQUIPMENT...PM  
 
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