333
FXUS61 KRNK 201948
AFDRNK
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA
248 PM EST MON JAN 20 2025
SYNOPSIS
WITH GUSTY WINDS AND AN ARCTIC AIR MASS IN PLACE, DANGEROUSLY
COLD WIND CHILLS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THURSDAY. TEMPERATURES
SHOULD MODERATE LATE IN THE WEEK AND INTO THE WEEKEND. THERE
WILL BE A A COUPLE MORE LOW CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION IN THE
MOUNTAINS THIS WEEK.
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/
AS OF 100 PM EST MONDAY...
KEY MESSAGE:
1) COLD AND DRY CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH TUESDAY.
WIDESPREAD SUNNY SKIES, BUT STILL BREEZY. GUSTS OCCASIONALLY
ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS STILL EXCEEDING 20 MPH, RESULTING IN WIND
CHILLS IN THE SINGLE DIGITS AND BELOW ZERO. WINDS WILL RELAX
TONIGHT WITH HIGH PRESSURE MOVING IN. CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT TO
CALM WINDS OVERNIGHT SHOULD ALLOW FOR ANOTHER VERY COLD
OVERNIGHT WITH MANY LOWS IN THE SINGLE DIGITS AND TEENS. ANY
ELEVATED VALLEYS, ESPECIALLY THOSE WITH SNOW COVER, THAT CAN
DECOUPLE TONIGHT COULD SEE BELOW 0 LOWS.
VERY DEEP TROUGH CONTINUES OVER MUCH OF THE CONUS AS STRONG HIGH
PRESSURE DROPS SOUTH OUT OF CANADA AND BUILDS EAST THROUGH
TUESDAY. LOW PRESSURE WILL DEVELOP OVER SOUTHERN TEXAS AND
TRAVERSE THE GULF OF MEXICO COASTLINE. WILL ONLY SEE OVERCAST
SKIES FROM THIS SYSTEM AS STRONG HIGH PRESSURE WILL KEEP ANY
PRECIPITATION WELL SOUTH OF THE REGION.
HIGHS ON TUESDAY STILL REMAIN BELOW 32F AREAWIDE. HIGHS IN THE
TEENS ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS AND LOW TO MID 20S EAST OF THE
MOUNTAINS. LESS WIND, SO WIND CHILL VALUES WILL NOT BE NEARLY AS
LOW.
SHORT TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/
AS OF 230 PM EST MONDAY...
KEY MESSAGES:
1). EXTREME COLD WATCH UPGRADED TO AN EXTREME COLD WARNING FOR
TUESDAY NIGHT/WEDNESDAY MORNING FOR WESTERN
GREENBRIER/BATH/GRAYSON/ASHE/WATAUGA.
2). COLD WEATHER ADVISORY FOR REMAINING COUNTIES PREVIOUSLY IN
AN EXTREME COLD WATCH.
3). ADDED CRAIG, ROCKBRIDGE, AMHERST, BOTETOURT, BEDFORD,
FRANKLIN, HENRY, AND SURRY TO A COLD WEATHER ADVISORY.
4). TEMPERATURE REACH THEIR COLDEST LEVELS WEDNESDAY AROUND
DAYBREAK. VERY SLOW WARMUP THU-FRI.
5). VERY LITTLE IF ANY PRECIPITATION THROUGH THE PERIOD OUTSIDE
OF A FEW LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS OR FLURRIES WEST.
ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE WILL DOMINATE THE WEATHER SCENE THROUGH THE
PERIOD WITH A VERY SLOW BEGINNING TO THE TEMPERATURE MODERATION
PERIOD AT THE END OF THIS FORECAST PERIOD.
A BROAD UPPER TROUGH ACROSS THE EASTERN 2/3RD OF THE US WILL
SLOWLY RELAX A BIT TUE-WED AS THE PARENT ARCTIC HIGH SETTLES
OVER THE FORECAST AREA. A SOUTHERN STREAM SHORT WAVE WILL TRACK
WELL TO OUR SOUTHEAST TUESDAY BRINGING SNOW TO THE SOUTHEASTERN
STATES, BUT THE VARIOUS MODELS ALL IN GOOD AGREEMENT NOW ON
KEEPING THIS ENTIRELY OUT OF OUR CWA EXCEPT FOR SOME STRAY
CIRRUS IN THE SOUTHEASTERN PART OF THE CWA. IN ITS WAKE,
HOWEVER, LOOK FOR A SMALL INCREASE IN WINDS AGAIN FOR TUE
NIGHT/WED EVENING. THE CORE OF THE -24C AIR MASS WILL TRACK VERY
NEAR THE CWA TUE NIGHT/WED MORNING. THIS COMBINED WITH THE
SLIGHT INCREASE IN WIND WILL PUSH WIND CHILL READINGS TO -20 OR
LOWER IN THE WARNED COUNTIES WITH BELOW ZERO WIND CHILLS AS FAR
EAST AS THE BLUE RIDGE AND SCATTERED AS FAR EAST AS LYH.
ANOTHER SHORT WAVE EMBEDDED WITH THE PARENT UPPER TROUGH MAY
BRING SOME UPSLOPE SNOW SHOWERS TO THE WESTERN MOUNTAINS LATE
FRIDAY, BUT OVERALL A RATHER INSIGNIFICANT EVENT. MEANWHILE,
THE BITTER COLD WILL FINALLY BEGIN TO RELAX AND RETREAT
NORTHEAST BY THURSDAY ALLOWING AT LEAST THE PIEDMONT TO CREEP
ABOVE FREEZING. WESTERN AREAS WILL LIKELY REMAIN BELOW FREEZING
UNTIL FRIDAY.
/CONFIDENCE LEVELS IN FORECAST PARAMETERS/
- HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TEMPERATURES,
- HIGH CONFIDENCE IN PRECIPITATION PROBABILITIES,
- MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN WIND DIRECTION AND SPEED.
LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/
AS OF 100 PM EST MONDAY...
KEY MESSAGES:
1) WARMING TREND INTO THE WEEKEND AND EARLY NEXT WEEK
2) CHANCE OF UPSLOPE PRECIPITATION THIS WEEKEND
A SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL BE PRESENT IN THE SOUTHEASTERN
UNITED STATES AND SUPPORT SOME WAA AND A WARMING TREND INTO THE
WEEKEND. WHILE TEMPERATURES WILL STILL BE COLD, CONDITIONS WILL BE
CONSIDERABLY WARMER AFTER THE EXTREME COLD EXPERIENCED THIS WEEK.
(850 MB TEMPERATURES LOOK TO GO ABOVE FREEZING AROUND THIS WEEKEND
AS WELL ). CURRENT ENSEMBLE MODELS PREDICT HIGHS IN THE 40S IN THE
PIEDMONT/FOOTHILLS AND IN THE 30S ALONG AND WEST OF THE NEW RIVER
VALLEY. LOWS ARE STILL LIKELY TO BE IN THE 20S AND 30S REGION WIDE,
EXCEPT FOR ELEVATED AREAS WHICH COULD BE COLDER.
A COLD FRONT MAY PASS THROUGH BY THIS WEEKEND TO BRING A SMALL
CHANCE OF UPSLOPE PRECIPITATION FOR THE MOST WESTERN AND ELEVATED
AREAS. WINDS FOR THE MOST PART WILL BE ON THE QUIETER SIDE.
THERE IS A BIT OF MODEL DISAGREEMENT ON A STORM SYSTEM TOWARDS
THE END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD. SPECIFICS ON PRECIPITATION AND
WINDS AS A RESULT ARE STILL UP IN THE AIR (PUN INTENDED). CLOUD
COVER WILL BE DEPENDENT ON THESE SYSTEMS THOUGH CURRENTLY PARTLY
TO MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES ARE FORECAST FOR THE ENTIRE REGION FOR
THIS PART OF THE FORECAST.
AVIATION /20Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/
AS OF 115 PM EST MONDAY...
AREAWIDE VFR THIS AFTERNOON AND VFR IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE
THROUGH THE VALID 24 HOUR TAF PERIOD. NORTHWEST WINDS REMAIN
GUSTY FROM THE NORTHWEST ACROSS THE AREA, WITH A FEW GUSTS STILL
TOPPING 20KTS AT TIMES. WINDS SHOULD GRADUALLY DECREASE THROUGH
THE EVENING AND BECOME LIGHT TO CALM OVERNIGHT.
CLOUD COVER INCREASES TUESDAY MORNING AFTER DAYBREAK, BUT
STILL EXPECTING VFR WITH CLOUD LAYER GENERALLY ABOVE 7KFT. WINDS
STILL REMAIN LIGHT ON TUESDAY.
EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...
MOSTLY VFR WEDNESDAY THROUGH THE WEEKEND. HOWEVER, THERE IS SOME
POSSIBILITY OF SUB-VFR IN THE MOUNTAINS ON FRIDAY WITH A QUICK-
MOVING DISTURBANCE.
RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
VA...EXTREME COLD WATCH FROM TUESDAY EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY
MORNING FOR VAZ007-009>017-019-020.
NC...EXTREME COLD WATCH FROM TUESDAY EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY
MORNING FOR NCZ001-002-018.
WV...EXTREME COLD WATCH FROM TUESDAY EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY
MORNING FOR WVZ042>044-507.
EXTREME COLD WARNING UNTIL NOON EST WEDNESDAY FOR WVZ508.
SYNOPSIS...BMG
NEAR TERM...BMG
SHORT TERM...RAB
LONG TERM...CG
AVIATION...BMG
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