646
FXUS61 KRNK 220051
AFDRNK
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA
751 PM EST SAT FEB 21 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
AVIATION UPDATE. OVERALL, THE FORECAST CURRENTLY REMAINS ON
TRACK THIS EVENING. TEMPERATURES WERE ADJUSTED SLIGHTLY ACROSS
THE PIEDMONT AS CLEAR SKIES HAVE ALLOWED TEMPERATURES TO DROP
SLIGHTLY FASTER THAN FORECAST THIS EVENING. CLOUDS QUICKLY
MOVING IN FROM THE WEST SHOULD KEEP TEMPERATURES FROM DROPPING
TOO DRASTICALLY THROUGH THE NEXT FEW HOURS OVERNIGHT.
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION:
WINTER STORM WARNING IN EFFECT SUNDAY AND MONDAY WESTERN
GREENBRIER, SUMMERS, MERCER, AND TAZEWELL COUNTIES.
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IN EFFECT SUNDAY AND MONDAY FOR EASTERN
GREENBRIER, MONROE, BATH, GILES, BLAND, SMYTH, GRAYSON, ASHE,
AND WATAUGA COUNTIES.
FORECAST SNOW AMOUNTS HAVE BEEN TRENDING UP. CONFIDENCE HIGH
ENOUGH FOR WARNINGS ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF WV.
THURSDAY SYSTEM LOOKS MORE POTENT, WITH GUSTY WINDS AND HEAVY
RAINFALL POSSIBLE.
KEY MESSAGES
1) WINTRY WEATHER RETURNS WITH COLD BLUSTERY CONDITIONS AND AN
OPPORTUNITY FOR SOME SNOW SUNDAY AND MONDAY.
2) NEXT IMPACTFUL SYSTEM MOVES INTO THE AREA ON THURSDAY, BRINGING
WIDESPREAD RAINFALL.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1: WINTRY WEATHER RETURNS WITH COLD BLUSTERY
CONDITIONS AND AN OPPORTUNITY FOR SOME SNOW SUNDAY AND MONDAY.
COMPLEX WEATHER SET-UP NEXT 24 TO 48 HOURS. STALLED SURFACE
FRONT TO OUR SOUTH IS PROGGED TO BE FOCUS FOR A WAVE OF LOW
PRESSURE TO DEVELOP TO OUR SOUTH AND THEN MOVE UP THE MID-
ATLANTIC COAST SUNDAY. THE LOW IS EXPECTED TO GET ENERGIZED BY
A VIGOROUS SHORT WAVE TROUGH CROSSING THE OHIO VALLEY, RESULTING
IN BOMBOGENESIS OF THE SURFACE LOW AS IT GAINS LATITUDE, A
POWERFUL NOR'EASTER THAT WILL RAKE THE NEW ENGLAND COAST.
FOR OUR FORECAST AREA INITIAL SPAWNING OF THE SURFACE LOW OVER
GA/SC TONIGHT WILL RESULT IN RAIN OVERSPREADING THE REGION.
AVAILABLE COLD AIR TO THE SYSTEM CONDUCIVE FOR SNOW WILL
PRIMARILY BE LIMITED TO OUR HIGHER ELEVATIONS WEST OF THE BLUE
RIDGE...CHANGING FROM RAIN TO SNOW AT THE HIGHEST ELEVATIONS
FIRST, THEN WORKING LOWER IN ELEVATION WITH TIME SUNDAY. THERE
MAY EVEN BE A BREAK IN TO THE PRECIPITATION SUNDAY MORNING,
BEFORE STRONGER NORTHWEST WINDS DEVELOP ON THE BACK SIDE OF THE
DEVELOPING CYCLONE RESULTING IN RENEWED PRECIPITATION ACROSS THE
MOUNTAINS SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND THEN CONTINUING THROUGH MONDAY.
TEMPERATURES WILL ALSO TAKE A MARKET PLUNGE AT THAT TIME WITH
850H TEMPS OF M10 TO M14 DEG/C FORECAST FORCING SURFACE
TEMPERATURES INTO THE TEENS/F ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS SUNDAY NIGHT.
SNOW RATIOS DO NOT SUPPORT A LOT OF ACCUMULATION TONIGHT OR
EARLY SUNDAY, BUT THEN RAMP UP FOR SUNDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH
MONDAY...WITH RATIOS OF 15:1 TO 20:1 BY MONDAY MORNING. THAT
SAID, PER COORDINATION WITH NEIGHBORING OFFICES, STILL ELECTED
TO START WARNING AND ADVISORY HEADLINES TONIGHT EVEN THOUGH THE
BULK OF THE SNOW ACCUMULATION WILL NOT OCCUR UNTIL SUNDAY NIGHT
AND MONDAY. THE FACT THAT ROADS HAVE BEEN WASHED AND RINSED OF
THE SALT RESIDUE MAY LEAD TO HAZARDOUS TRAVEL WITH EVEN A LITTLE
BIT OF SNOW ACCUMULATION LATE TONIGHT NOT HAVING THE BENEFIT OF
ANY PRETREATMENT TO PREVENT SLICK SPOTS.
IN GENERAL EXPECTING TEMPERATURES EAST OF THE BLUE RIDGE TO
REMAIN ABOVE FREEZING UNTIL SUNDAY NIGHT...WHICH MEANS PRIMARILY
RAIN FOR MOST OF THE EASTERN CWA. DO THINK THE NORTHEAST PART OF
THE CWA, NORTH AND EAST OF LYNCHBURG MAY SEE A CHANGE OVER TO
SNOW TOMORROW AFTERNOON AND EVENING WITH TEMPERATURES IN THE MID
30S, BUT GROUND IS NOT FROZE SO MUCH OF THIS MAY FALL AS
"WHITE-RAIN" OR SNOW THAT MELTS ON CONTACT.
AS THE COASTAL CYCLONE EVOLVES, EXPECT WIND SPEEDS TO INCREASE
WITH NEAR ADVISORY CRITERIA LEVEL WIND GUSTS SUNDAY NIGHT AND
MONDAY. IT WILL BE BLUSTERY AND COLD AREAWIDE AS WE START OFF
THE NEW WORK WEEK WITH WIND CHILLS IN THE SINGLE DIGITS AND
TEENS...A REMINDER THAT WINTER IS NOT OVER AND THE WARM TEASE
WE HAD FRIDAY AND SATURDAY WERE JUST THAT, A TEASE.
KEY MESSAGE 2: NEXT IMPACTFUL SYSTEM MOVES INTO THE AREA ON
THURSDAY, BRINGING WIDESPREAD RAINFALL.
MOSTLY QUIET WEATHER CONTINUES FOR THE MIDWEEK, ASIDE FROM A WEAK
CLIPPER SYSTEM THAT SWINGS THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING BRINGING A FEW
SNOW SHOWERS TO WV. THAT CLIPPER SYSTEM WILL PUSH THE HIGH PRESSURE
OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN US INTO THE WESTERN ATLANTIC, ALLOWING A
SOUTHERLY FLOW OF MOISTURE INTO OUR AREA. A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL
DEVELOP MIDWEEK ACROSS THE NORTHERN ROCKIES AND MOVE INTO THE GREAT
PLAINS THEN INTO THE OHIO VALLEY. AS IT DOES SO, STRATIFORM RAIN
AHEAD OF THE FRONT WILL MOVE INTO THE AREA DURING THE DAY ON
THURSDAY, BECOMING MORE WIDESPREAD BY LATE AFTERNOON. THE MAIN FRONT
WITH THE HEAVIEST RAIN WILL MOVE IN THURSDAY EVENING BEFORE CLEARING
OUT BY FRIDAY MORNING. PRECIPITATION WILL BE ALL RAIN DUE TO
TEMPERATURES BEING IN THE 40S/50S.
DESPITE THE ROBUST FRONT, SEVERE WEATHER IS NOT CURRENTLY
ANTICIPATED AS OUR AREA WILL BE MOSTLY STABLE, WITH HEAVY CLOUD
COVER AND COOL TEMPERATURES DUE TO THE AFOREMENTIONED RAIN AHEAD OF
THE FRONT. GUSTY WINDS AND HEAVY RAINFALL ARE THE ONLY CURRENT
THREATS ANTICIPATED. TEMPERATURES WILL NOT VARY MUCH BEHIND THE
FRONT, ONLY DROPPING A FEW DEGREES BEFORE WARM AIR RETURNS FOR THE
WEEKEND.
AVIATION /00Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/
VFR CONDITIONS LOOK TO HANG ON FOR ANOTHER 4 TO 5 HOURS THIS
EVENING, BEFORE MVFR RESTRICTIONS START TO PUSH INTO THE REGION
DUE TO AN IMPENDING STORM SYSTEM PUSHING INTO THE REGION. THESE
RESTRICTIONS LOOK TO CONTINUE TO WORSEN TO IFR WITH BRIEF
PERIODS OF LIFR CIGS AND VSBYS THROUGH THE EARLY MORNING TO
EARLY AFTERNOON HOURS ON SUNDAY. RAIN LOOKS TO BEGIN TONIGHT
ACROSS THE AREA, AND WILL SLOWLY TRANSITION TO A WET SNOW ACROSS
HIGHER ELEVATION REGIONS, WHICH WOULD MOSTLY ONLY IMPACT BLF/LWB
STARTING SUNDAY MORNING. A RAIN TO SNOW TRANSITION FOR BCB/ROA
DOESN'T LOOK TO OCCUR UNTIL AROUND THE 18Z TO 21Z SUNDAY.
TERMINALS LIKE DAN AND LYH LOOK TO REMAIN MOSTLY RAIN THROUGH
THE TAF PERIOD, BUT LYH COULD SEE A TRANSITION TO RAIN AND SNOW
MIX BY THE 00Z TIMEFRAME, BEFORE WESTERLY WINDS CAUSE MOST
PRECIPITATION TO END FOR LYH AND DAN.
WINDS WILL GENERALLY START LIGHT ACROSS ALL TERMINALS; HOWEVER,
A TRANSITION TO NORTHERLY/NORTHWESTERLY WINDS LOOKS TO OCCUR
DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. AS THE SURFACE LOW DEEPENS EAST OF
THE REGION, WINDS LOOK TO PICK UP TO AROUND 10 TO 15 KNOTS
SUSTAINED, WITH GUSTS UP TO 20 TO 30 KNOTS BY 00Z ON MONDAY.
EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...
EXPECT LOWER CIGS AND AT TIMES VSBYS AT BLF/LWB THROUGH MONDAY
NIGHT. EAST OF THE MOUNTAINS SHOULD TURN TO VFR BY MONDAY.
NORTHWEST WINDS SUNDAY AFTERNOON INTO MONDAY COULD GUST 20 TO 45
MPH, HIGHER IN THE MOUNTAINS.
VFR CONDITIONS RETURN FOR THE ENTIRE AREA BY TUESDAY INTO
TUESDAY NIGHT.
FOR WEDNESDAY, A COLD FRONT MAY BRING SOME LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS TO
WESTERN SECTIONS ALONG WITH POCKETS OF SUB-VFR CONDITIONS. GUSTY
NORTHWEST WINDS ARE EXPECTED.
RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
VA...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO MIDNIGHT EST
MONDAY NIGHT FOR VAZ009-015.
WINTER STORM WARNING FROM 1 AM SUNDAY TO 1 AM EST TUESDAY FOR
VAZ007.
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 1 AM SUNDAY TO 1 AM EST TUESDAY
FOR VAZ010-011-020.
NC...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO MIDNIGHT EST
MONDAY NIGHT FOR NCZ001-018.
WV...WINTER STORM WARNING FROM 1 AM SUNDAY TO 1 AM EST TUESDAY FOR
WVZ042-043-508.
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 1 AM SUNDAY TO 1 AM EST TUESDAY
FOR WVZ044-507.
DISCUSSION...JCB/PM
AVIATION...EB/VFJ
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