309
FXUS61 KRNK 252242
AFDRNK
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA
642 PM EDT TUE AUG 25 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
AFTERNOON AVIATION UPDATED.
RAIN CHANCES HAVE SLIGHTLY INCREASED FOR THE LATE WEEK.
KEY MESSAGES
1) QUIET AND PLEASANT WEATHER TODAY, RAIN CHANCES RETURN
LATE WEDNESDAY LASTING INTO THE WEEKEND.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1: QUIET AND PLEASANT WEATHER TODAY, RAIN CHANCES
RETURN LATE WEDNESDAY LASTING INTO THE WEEKEND.
AFTER A CHILLY START THIS MORNING WITH SOME AREAS IN THE LOW
40S, TEMPERATURES ARE REBOUNDING NICELY WITH SEASONABLE HIGHS
EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON, IN THE UPPER 70S TO LOW 80S. HIGH
PRESSURE REMAINS IN PLACE ACROSS THE MID-ATLANTIC THIS
AFTERNOON, KEEPING SKIES CLEAR AND CONDITIONS DRY. THE HUMIDITY
REMAINS RELATIVELY LOW DUE TO A GENERAL NORTHERLY FLOW. THIS IS
SHORT-LIVED, AS BY LATE WEDNESDAY, THE HIGH SHIFTS OFFSHORE
INTO THE ATLANTIC, WITH SOUTHERLY FLOW RETURNING TO THE REGION.
THIS WILL CAUSE AN INCREASE IN MOISTURE, WITH DEW POINTS RISING
BACK INTO THE UPPER 60S TO AROUND 70 DEGREES. A SUBTLE
SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL ALSO TRAVERSE ACROSS THE AREA WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON, TRIGGERING ISOLATED SHOWERS/STORMS TO FORM, MAINLY
ALONG/EAST OF THE BLUE RIDGE INTO WEDNESDAY EVENING.
A COLD FRONT THEN APPROACHES THE AREA THURSDAY AFTERNOON,
INCREASING STORM CHANCES THROUGH SATURDAY AS THE FRONT STALLS
ALONG THE EAST COAST. ALTHOUGH NO WASHOUT DAYS ARE EXPECTED,
SCATTERED TO WIDESPREAD SHOWERS/STORMS WILL DEVELOP THURSDAY
AND FRIDAY AFTERNOONS. STORMS THAT MOVE OVER THE SAME AREAS
REPEATEDLY COULD LEAD TO LOCALIZED FLASH FLOODING BOTH DAYS,
ESPECIALLY IN THE PIEDMONT, WHERE THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK FOR
EXCESSIVE RAINFALL.
THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY EVENTUALLY PUSHES OFFSHORE BY SUNDAY, WITH
DRIER WEATHER EXPECTED INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK, AS HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS BACK INTO THE AREA ONCE AGAIN. EARLY INDICATIONS ARE
THAT TEMPERATURES WILL RISE INTO THE 80S/90S EARLY NEXT WEEK, AS
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN BOTH AT THE SURFACE AND ALOFT. SUMMER
IS NOT QUITE OVER JUST YET.
AVIATION /00Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/
VFR FLIGHT CONDITIONS ARE ONGOING ACROSS ALL TERMINALS THIS
EVENING, WITH LIGHT WINDS, CLEAR SKIES, AND NO RAIN EXPECTED.
THESE CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT AND INTO
MOST OF WEDNESDAY. LWB IS EXPECTED TO FOG IN AGAIN OVERNIGHT
BETWEEN 06-14Z, WITH VSBY DOWN TO 1/4 MILE POSSIBLE. BCB MAY
AGAIN HAVE PATCHY FOG BETWEEN 09-13Z WEDNESDAY MORNING.
FOR WEDNESDAY, DRY CONDITIONS AND VFR LAST THROUGH LATE
AFTERNOON WHEN ISOLATED STORM CHANCES RETURN, MOSTLY IMPACTING
THE SOUTHERN BLUE RIDGE AND NO TAF SITE SPECIFICALLY EXCEPT DAN
PERHAPS AFTER THE VALID TAF CYCLE (AFTER 27/00Z). WINDS WILL
SHIFT TO THE SOUTH AND INCREASE, WITH GUSTS UP TO 15 KNOTS
POSSIBLE AT ALL TERMINALS AROUND MIDDAY WEDNESDAY.
CONFIDENCE IN THE ABOVE FORECAST IS HIGH.
OUTLOOK...
ISOLATED STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON INTO THE
EVENING, WHICH WOULD BRING SUB-VFR FLIGHT CONDITIONS IF
IMPACTING A TERMINAL...THE MOST LIKELY BEING DAN. RAIN CHANCES
INCREASE FOR THURSDAY AFTERNOON AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES,
KEEPING STORM CHANCES POSSIBLE AT ALL TAF SITES EACH AFTERNOON
THROUGH SATURDAY AND CAUSING LIKELY SUB-VFR FLIGHT CONDITIONS AT
TIMES. PATCHY MORNING FOG WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE EACH MORNING,
POTENTIALLY LOWERING VSBY TO SUB-VFR AS WELL. WHEN NOT IMPACTED
BY STORMS OR FOG, VFR IS EXPECTED. DRIER WEATHER RETURNS SUNDAY.
RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
VA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
WV...NONE.
DISCUSSION...JCB/SH
AVIATION...JCB/SH
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