437  
FXUS61 KRNK 091053  
AFDRNK  
 
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION  
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA  
653 AM EDT SUN AUG 9 2020  
   
SYNOPSIS
 
 
A WEAK SURFACE HIGH WILL GRADUALLY BUILD ACROSS THE REGION  
TODAY INTO MONDAY, LIMITING THE COVERAGE OF SHOWERS AND  
THUNDERSTORMS. A COLD FRONT STALLS ACROSS THE SOUTHERN OHIO  
VALLEY TUESDAY, INCREASING THE CHANCES FOR CONVECTION THROUGH  
THE REMAINDER OF THE WORK WEEK.  
 

 
   
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/
 
 
AS OF 650 AM EDT SUNDAY...  
 
A WEAK SURFACE TROUGH WILL BE DRAPED OVER THE MOUNTAINS TODAY  
WITH DRIER AIR TO THE WEST (PWATS BELOW AN INCH) AND ABUNDANT  
MOISTURE EAST (PWATS AROUND 1.50 INCHES). STORMS SHOULD START  
ALONG THE BLUE RIDGE BY THE MIDDLE OF THE AFTERNOON THEN DRIFT  
SOUTHEAST INTO THE PIEDMONT BY THIS EVENING. CAPPING INVERSION  
SHOULD LIMIT THE COVERAGE OF STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS TO JUST A  
FEW, BUT TORRENTIAL DOWNPOURS ARE POSSIBLE TOWARDS THE PIEDMONT  
LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.  
 
JUST LIKE THE LAST COUPLE OF DAYS, PATCHY DENSE FOG AND/OR LOW  
STRATUS DECK WILL HANG AROUND INTO MID MORNING. WITH MORE SUN  
THAN SHOWERS, TEMPERATURES WILL WARM INTO THE 80S ACROSS THE  
MOUNTAINS TO LOW 90S EAST. EVEN THOUGH LESS RAIN IS EXPECTED  
TODAY, WE SHOULD SEE A RETURN OF FOG/STRATUS CLOUDS BY MONDAY'S  
MORNING COMMUTE.  
 

 
   
SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/
 
 
AS OF 230 AM EDT SUNDAY...  
 
HIGH PRESSURE SLOWLY WEAKENS MONDAY AS A NEW UPPER LEVEL TROUGH  
FROM THE GREAT LAKES AND A WARM FRONT TO OUR SOUTH ENTER THE  
REGION. THIS WARM FRONT WILL BE ONE OF MANY FOCAL POINTS FOR  
INCREASED SHOWER AND STORM COVERAGE DURING THE PERIOD. COVERAGE  
LOOKS TO BE SCATTERED AND DIURNALLY DRIVEN SIMILAR TO WHAT HAS  
HAPPENED OVER THE LAST FEW DAYS. THE EXCEPTION TO THIS WOULD BE  
AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT THAT LOOKS TO STALL CLOSE TO THE  
REGION STARTING TUESDAY AND HEADING INTO THE MIDWEEK PERIOD.  
THIS WILL ACT AS A CATALYST FOR SEVERAL WAVES OF ENERGY TO ROLL  
ALONG INCREASING THE SHOWER AND STORM CHANCES ON BOTH OF THOSE  
DAYS ESPECIALLY DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS.  
 
WITH HIGH PRESSURE WEAKENING AND A STRENGTHENING BERMUDA HIGH  
OFFSHORE HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO REMAIN AT OR ABOVE  
AVERAGE THROUGH THE PERIOD. THIS MEANS HIGHS IN THE LOW TO MID  
90S EAST OF THE BLUE RIDGE AND MID TO UPPER 80S OUT OVER THE  
MOUNTAINS. NO REAL RELIEF AT NIGHT EITHER WITH LOWS CONTINUING  
TO HOLD STEADY IN THE MID TO UPPER 60S.  
 

 
   
LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/
 
 
AS OF 100 PM EDT SATURDAY...  
 
ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE IS KEEN TO DEVELOP AN UPPER RIDGE IN THE  
EASTERN US THAT GETS UNDERCUT BY A STEADY STREAM OF SHORT WAVE  
ENERGY THROUGH THE LATTER PORTION OF NEXT WEEK, WHILE AT THE  
SURFACE A BERMUDA HIGH TAKES UP A POSITION OFF THE COAST. THIS  
WILL BE AN INCREASINGLY ACTIVE PATTERN FOR US AS A DIFFUSE  
FRONTAL BOUNDARY SLOWLY MOVES INTO THE REGION FROM THE WEST. THE  
NET RESULT WILL BE DAILY ROUNDS OF CONVECTION AND POSSIBLY MORE  
ORGANIZED MCS EVENTS. PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES WILL ALSO BE  
SURGING TO +1 STANDARD DEVIATION ABOVE NORMAL SO THE POTENTIAL  
FOR HEAVY RAINFALL AND HYDRO ISSUES WILL BE INCREASING AS WELL.  
 
TEMPERATURES WILL BE AT TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE LATE SUMMER SEASONAL  
NORMS THROUGH THE PERIOD.  
 

 
   
AVIATION /12Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/
 
 
AS OF 650 AM EDT SUNDAY...  
 
JUST LIKE THE LAST COUPLE OF MORNINGS, PATCHY FOG AND/OR LOW STRATUS  
DECK WILL HOVER OVER THE AREA THIS MORNING. MOST MODELS HAVE THESE  
WEATHER OBSCURATIONS GONE BY 14Z/10A.  
 
LIMITED CONVECTION IS EXPECTED TODAY AND WILL PRIMARILY BE EAST OF  
THE BLUE RIDGE. SOME STORMS TOWARD KLYH AND KDAN COULD PRODUCE  
TORRENTIAL DOWNPOURS TEMPORARILY REDUCE VISIBILITIES. SINCE LESS  
COVERAGE OF CONVECTION IS EXPECTED TODAY, THE AREAL COVERAGE OF  
FOG/STRATUS MAY ALSO BE LIMITED OVERNIGHT TONIGHT INTO MONDAY  
MORNING.  
 
EXTENDED AVIATION DISCUSSION...  
 
PATTERN SHOULD REMAIN TYPICAL OF SUMMER MONDAY WITH SCATTERED  
AFTERNOON/EVENING STORMS. OVERALL VFR OUTSIDE STORMS AND LATE NIGHT  
VALLEY FOG.  
 
LOW PRESSURE WILL BRING A BETTER THREAT OF STORMS AND MVFR  
CONDITIONS TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY. THE USUAL DIURNAL PATTERN WILL SEE  
STORMS LINGER UNTIL AROUND MIDNIGHT, MAINLY EAST OF THE FOOTHILLS.  
OVERNIGHT FOG IS LIKELY AND BASED ON THIS MORNINGS PERFORMANCE COULD  
BE DENSE ON SOME AREAS. ALREADY STARTING TO REACH THAT TIME OF YEAR  
WHERE THE LONGER NIGHTS ARE ALLOWING A LITTLE MORE FOG  
DEVELOPMENT.  
 

 
   
RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
 
 
VA...NONE.  
NC...NONE.  
WV...NONE.  
 

 
 

 
SYNOPSIS...RCS  
NEAR TERM...RCS  
SHORT TERM...ET  
LONG TERM...MBS  
AVIATION...RCS  
 
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