079  
FXUS61 KRNK 130611  
AFDRNK  
 
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION  
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA  
211 AM EDT TUE APR 13 2021  
   
SYNOPSIS
 
 
LOW PRESSURE EXTENDED FROM THE GREAT LAKES TO THE MID ATLANTIC  
REGION AND THIS PATTERN WILL PERSIST THROUGH WEDNESDAY WHEN A  
COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE CENTRAL APPALACHIANS. SHOWERS ARE  
LIKELY AHEAD OF THE FRONT ON WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT.  
TEMPERATURES WILL BE BELOW NORMAL BEHIND THE FRONT THURSDAY  
THROUGH SATURDAY.  
 

 
   
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/
 
 
AS OF 712 PM EDT MONDAY...  
 
CLOUD COVER REMAINED FROM THE GREENBRIER VALLEY EAST TO THE BLUE  
RIDGE NORTH OF LYNCHBURG. RADAR SHOWED WEAK RETURNS ACROSS THE  
ALLEGHANYS AND WILL NOT EXPECT THIS ACTIVITY TO LAST MUCH LONGER  
PAST MID EVENING, WITH ANY ISOLATED SHOWERS/SPRINKLES ENDING  
BEFORE MIDNIGHT. WINDS WILL ALSO WEAKEN IN THE VALLEYS/PIEDMONT  
BUT STILL SOME GUSTS ARE LIKELY IN THE HIGHER TERRAIN THROUGH  
THE OVERNIGHT.  
 
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...  
 
WINDS DIMINISH LATE TONIGHT  
 
UPPER LOW OVER OHIO CROSSES PENNSYLVANIA THEN DELAWARE TONIGHT. MID  
ATLANTIC REGION WILL BE UNDER RIDGING ON TUESDAY. LAYER OF MOISTURE  
AROUND 800 MB COMBINED WITH UPSLOPE WINDS AND LARGE LAPSE RATES  
SUPPORT LIST DEEP ENOUGH FOR SHOWERS LATE THIS AFTERNOON IN THE  
MOUNTAINS NORTH OF ROUTE 460.  
 
BUFKIT FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW THE POTENTIAL FOR WIND GUSTS ALONG  
THE SOUTHERN BLUE RIDGE AND ACROSS THE NORTHWEST NORTH CAROLINA  
MOUNTAINS 40 TO 50 MPH UNTIL SUNSET AND MIXING DIMINISHES AS THE  
SURFACE BASED INVERSION SETS UP. NO WIND ADVISORY PLANNED AT THIS  
TIME. WILL HAVE MORE OF A SPREAD BETWEEN WARMER RIDGES THAT STAY  
MIXED AND COOLER VALLEYS FOR LOWS TONIGHT.  
 
RELATIVE HUMIDITY INCREASE ALONG THE CENTRAL APPALACHIANS BELOW  
700MB SOUTH OF BLUEFIELD INTO NORTHWEST NORTH CAROLINA. LOW LEVEL  
MOISTURE REMAINS IN THAT AREA THROUGH TUESDAY. WILL BE ADDING MORE  
CLOUD COVER IN THE UPSLOPE AREAS TONIGHT AND A SMALL PROBABILITY FOR  
LIGHT SHOWERS FOR TUESDAY. ALSO, MOISTURE ABOVE 700MB SPREADS  
ACROSS THE AREA FROM THE WEST TUESDAY MORNING. WHAT IS GAINED IN  
HIGHER 500 MB HEIGHTS IS OFFSET BY LESS SUNSHINE AND SLIGHTLY  
COOLER 850MB TEMPERATURES. MAY TRIM A COUPLE OF DEGREES OFF THE  
FORECAST HIGH TEMPERATURE FOR TUESDAY IN THE MOUNTAINS.  
 

 
   
SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/
 
 
AS OF 130 PM EDT MONDAY...  
 
A COLD FRONT WILL TRIGGER SCATTERED SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS  
TO PARTS OF THE AREA ON WEDNESDAY, THEN COLDER AND BREEZY WEATHER  
EXPECTED THURSDAY.  
 
AN UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE RIDGE WILL BE ACROSS THE REGION TUESDAY  
NIGHT. AN ISOLATED SHOWER OR TWO MAY BE POSSIBLE LATE TUESDAY NIGHT  
INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING IN THE WEST. LOW TEMPERATURES TUESDAY NIGHT  
WILL RANGE FROM THE UPPER 30S IN THE MOUNTAINS TO THE LOWER 50S  
IN THE PIEDMONT.  
 
A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE EAST ACROSS OUR REGION WEDNESDAY INTO  
WEDNESDAY NIGHT. ISOLATED SHOWERS WEDNESDAY MORNING WILL INCREASE IN  
COVERAGE WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND PUSH EAST OF THE BLUE RIDGE  
MOUNTAINS. WITH LIS AROUND MINUS 2 AND CAPES AROUND 600 J/KG AND THE  
PASSAGE OF A COLD FRONT ALLOWED FOR SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS  
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON ESPECIALLY ACROSS SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE  
FORECAST AREA. HIGH TEMPERATURES WEDNESDAY WILL VARY FROM THE LOWER  
50S IN NORTHWEST GREENBRIER COUNTY TO THE LOWER 70S IN THE PIEDMONT.  
 
WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT, THE UPPER LOW WILL SLOWLY  
ROTATE EASTWARD FROM THE GREAT LAKES TO SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND.  
THE NORTHWEST FLOW MAY GENERATE SOME ISOLATED UPSLOPE SHOWERS  
ESPECIALLY ACROSS WESTERN GREENBRIER COUNTY, WEST VIRGINIA THURSDAY  
AFTERNOON AND EVENING. TEMPERATURES FOR THURSDAY INTO THURSDAY NIGHT  
WILL AVERAGE A FEW DEGREES BELOW NORMAL.  
 
CONFIDENCE IN THE SHORT TERM FORECAST IS MODERATE TO HIGH.  
 

 
   
LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/
 
 
AS OF 200 PM EDT MONDAY...  
 
SEASONABLY COOL WITH UNSETTLED WEATHER THROUGH THE WEEKEND.  
 
LOW PRESSURE ALONG THE MIDDLE ATLANTIC COAST WILL BE PULLING AWAY FROM  
THE REGION AS A CLOSED UPPER LOW SLOWLY MOVES THROUGH THE REGION. THIS  
WILL KEEP BLUSTERY CONDITIONS WITH MAYBE A LINGERING UPSLOPE SHOWER  
WEST OF THE BLUE RIDGE TO CLOSE OUT THE WORKWEEK.  
 
THEREAFTER, ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE IS CONSISTENT WITH KEEPING A MEAN TROF  
OVER THE EASTERN US THOUGH THERE IS SOME DISAGREEMENT AS TO HOW  
AMPLIFIED THE TROF WILL BE AND HOW MUCH ENERGY WILL BE ROTATING  
THROUGH. THE NET RESULT WILL BE TEMPERATURES AT OR SLIGHTLY BELOW  
NORMAL WITH SHOWERS IN THE FORECAST ESPECIALLY SUNDAY INTO MONDAY.  
 

 
   
AVIATION /06Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/
 
 
AS OF 200 AM EDT TUESDAY...  
 
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH MOST OF THE TAF  
VALID PERIOD. A WEAK SHORT WAVE RIDGE ALOFT WILL MOVE ACROSS  
THE REGION TODAY. UPSTREAM CLOUD COVER WILL CONTINUE TO STREAM  
INTO THE AREA CREATING BKN-OVC MOSTLY MID/HIGH CLOUDS BUT  
CEILINGS FOR THE MOST PART, EXCEPT POSSIBLY IN THE 10Z-14Z TIME  
FRAME THIS MORNING, ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN AOA 030. FOG  
DEVELOPMENT IS EXPECTED TO BE LIMITED AT BEST DUE TO A RELATIVELY  
DRY SURFACE AIR MASS, NORTHWEST TO NORTH WINDS 5-8 MPH, AND  
CLOUD COVER. LIMITED POTENTIAL FOR BRIEF PERIOD OF FOG AT KLWB,  
BUT NOT LIKELY DUE TO CLOUD COVER. WINDS WILL REMAIN MOSTLY  
NORTHWEST THROUGH THE PERIOD, ALTHOUGH SOME PERIODS OF NORTH TO  
NORTH-NORTHEAST WINDS ARE POSSIBLE AT KLYH AND KLWB. SPEEDS WILL  
RANGE FROM 5-8 MPH FOR THE MOST PART, OCCASIONALLY 10-12 MPH  
DURING THE DAYLIGHT HOURS.  
 
/CONFIDENCE LEVELS IN FORECAST PARAMETERS/  
MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN CEILINGS,  
MODERATE TO HIGH CONFIDENCE IN VISIBILITIES,  
MODERATE TO HIGH CONFIDENCE IN WIND SPEED/DIRECTION.  
 
EXTENDED AVIATION DISCUSSION...  
 
ANOTHER UPPER-LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL TRACK INTO THE GREAT  
LAKES WEDNESDAY WITH PERIODS OF SUB-VFR CONDITIONS AND SHOWERS  
AND/OR THUNDERSTORM CHANCES ON THE INCREASE. THE MOST LIKELY  
PROBABILITY OF PRECIPITATION WILL BE WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND  
WEDNESDAY NIGHT ACROSS SOUTHERN VIRGINIA AND NORTHERN NORTH  
CAROLINA.  
 
UPSLOPE SHOWERS AND GUSTY WINDS ARE EXPECTED BEHIND THIS SYSTEM  
FOR THURSDAY. SOME MVFR CEILINGS ARE POSSIBLE IN THE MOUNTAINS.  
CONDITIONS WILL BECOME VFR EAST OF THE BLUE RIDGE.  
 
FRIDAY AND SATURDAY WILL BE DRY. VFR CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES  
ARE FORECAST THROUGHOUT THE MID ATLANTIC REGION.  
 

 
   
RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
 
 
VA...NONE.  
NC...NONE.  
WV...NONE.  
 

 
 

 
SYNOPSIS...AMS  
NEAR TERM...AMS/WP  
SHORT TERM...KK  
LONG TERM...MBS  
AVIATION...RAB/WP  
 
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