181
FXUS61 KRNK 220806
AFDRNK
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA
306 AM EST SAT FEB 22 2025
SYNOPSIS
HIGH PRESSURE WILL PASS ACROSS THE LOWER MID-ATLANTIC THROUGH
SUNDAY NIGHT, AND SHIFT OFF THE ATLANTIC COAST ON MONDAY,
RESULTING IN A GRADUAL WARMING TREND TO AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES
THAT ARE 4 TO 7 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL FOR THE START OF THE
COMING WORKWEEK. A DISTURBANCE PASSING ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES
WILL BRING INCREASED CLOUD COVER FOR TUESDAY, FOLLOWED BY A COLD
FRONT ON THURSDAY THAT WILL BRING THE NEXT CHANCE FOR ORGANIZED
PRECIPITATION.
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/
AS OF 250 AM EST SATURDAY...
KEY MESSAGE:
1) WARMER TODAY, WITH AFTERNOON HIGHS ABOVE FREEZING AREAWIDE
2) UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL BRING AFTERNOON AND EVENING
CLOUDS, HOWEVER NO PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED.
AFTER A CHILLY START TO THE MORNING, TEMPERATURES THIS
AFTERNOON WILL RANGE FROM THE UPPER 30S ACROSS SOUTHEAST WEST
VIRGINIA TO THE UPPER 40S ACROSS THE VIRGINIA SOUTHSIDE, AS
WINDS SHIFT SOUTHWESTERLY AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING UPPER LEVEL
DISTURBANCE. THESE HIGHS WILL BE SEVERAL DEGREES WARMER THAN
THOSE OF FRIDAY, BUT STILL 4 TO 8 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL FOR THE
SECOND HALF OF FEBRUARY.
WILL START THE MORNING WITH ABUNDANT SUNSHINE, HOWEVER MID-
LEVEL AND HIGH-LEVEL CLOUDS WILL FILTER ACROSS THE REGION FOR
THE AFTERNOON. NOT VERY MUCH MOISTURE FOR THIS DISTURBANCE TO
WORK WITH, AND IT IS EXPECTED TO PASS ACROSS THE LOWER MID-
ATLANTIC WITHOUT PRODUCING PRECIPITATION. SKIES WILL CLEAR AGAIN
TONIGHT AS THE DISTURBANCE EXITS TO THE EAST, WITH RADIATIONAL
COOLING TAKING OVERNIGHT LOWS BACK INTO THE 20S FOR MUCH OF THE
AREA.
SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/
AS OF 150 AM EST SATURDAY...
KEY MESSAGES:
1) CONFIDENCE IS HIGH FOR DRY WEATHER THROUGH SUNDAY AND
MONDAY, BUT THERE IS A SLIGHT CHANCE OF MOUNTAIN SHOWERS ON
TUESDAY.
2) A WARMING TREND SHOULD TAKE PLACE.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL KEEP THE MID-ATLANTIC DRY THROUGH SUNDAY AND
MONDAY. WITH A ZONAL FLOW ALOFT AND A SURFACE SOUTHWEST BREEZE
ARRIVING ON MONDAY, A WARMING TREND SHOULD OCCUR. A WEAK
SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL CROSS THE GREAT LAKES ON TUESDAY, BUT THE
MODELS ARE TRENDING DRIER DUE TO THE MOISTURE STAYING FURTHER
NORTH. A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS REMAINS FOR SOUTHEAST WEST
VIRGINIA JUST IN CASE THIS MOISTURE SLIPS FAR ENOUGH SOUTHWARD.
THESE SHOWERS MIGHT BRIEFLY MIX WITH FLURRIES IN WESTERN
GREENBRIER COUNTY ON TUESDAY MORNING AND AGAIN BY TUESDAY NIGHT
BEFORE THE TROUGH EXITS. MEANWHILE, A WESTERLY DOWNSLOPE BREEZE
WILL KEEP THE PIEDMONT DRY AND ALLOW HIGHS TO JUMP INTO THE 60S
BY TUESDAY AFTERNOON.
LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/
AS OF 150 AM EST SATURDAY...
KEY MESSAGES:
1) CONFIDENCE IS HIGH FOR DRY WEATHER ON WEDNESDAY.
2) RAIN MAY ARRIVE FOR WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY, AND
MOUNTAIN SNOW SHOWERS COULD FOLLOW BY THURSDAY NIGHT INTO
FRIDAY.
WEDNESDAY LOOKS TO STAY DRY WITH ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES AS
HIGH PRESSURE PASSES TO THE SOUTH. A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH
THE OHIO RIVER VALLEY BY WEDNESDAY NIGHT, AND CHANCES OF RAIN
SHOULD INCREASE FOR THE APPALACHIAN MOUNTAINS INTO THURSDAY. THE
FRONT APPEARS WEAKER IN THE LATEST MODELS, WHICH HINTS THAT THE
RAINFALL AMOUNTS MAY NOT BE SIGNIFICANT. TEMPERATURES HAVE
TRENDED UPWARD ENOUGH THAT THE PRECIPITATION SHOULD STAY LIQUID
UNTIL THE FRONTAL PASSAGE ON THURSDAY NIGHT, WHEN A GUSTY
NORTHWEST FLOW BRINGS COLDER AIR AND MOUNTAIN SNOW SHOWERS. THE
PIEDMONT SHOULD TURN DRIER ON FRIDAY, WHILE UPSLOPE MOISTURE
LINGERS IN THE MOUNTAINS UNTIL FINALLY FADING BY THE END OF THE
DAY.
AVIATION /08Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
AS OF 1245 AM EST SATURDAY...
PREVAILING VFR CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST FOR ALL TAF SITES
THROUGH THE 22/06 TAF PERIOD. WINDS WILL REMAIN LIGHT AND
VARIABLE FOR THE EARLY MORNING HOURS, THEN INCREASE TO BETWEEN 5
AND 10 KTS OUT OF THE WEST-SOUTHWEST BY EARLY AFTERNOON. EXPECT
INCREASING MID AND HIGH CLOUDS DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING
AS AN UPPER DISTURBANCE MOVES THROUGH, HOWEVER NO PRECIPITATION
IS EXPECTED.
EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK
DRY WEATHER AND VFR FLIGHT CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH
EARLY NEXT WEEK. FLOW GRADUALLY TURNS MORE SOUTHWESTERLY
THIS WEEKEND.
RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
VA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
WV...NONE.
SYNOPSIS...NF
NEAR TERM...NF
SHORT TERM...PW
LONG TERM...PW
AVIATION...NF/SH
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