882  
FXUS61 KRNK 191956  
AFDRNK  
 
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION  
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA  
256 PM EST WED FEB 19 2020  
   
SYNOPSIS
 
 
LOW PRESSURE ALONG A FRONT OVER THE NORTHERN GULF OF MEXICO TONIGHT  
WILL MOVE EAST THEN DEEPEN OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST ON THURSDAY. A  
LARGE HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL COVER THE EASTERN UNITED STATES ON  
FRIDAY INTO SUNDAY.  
 

 
   
NEAR TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/
 
 
AS OF 256 PM EST TUESDAY...  
 
IN COLLABORATION WITH SURROUNDING NWS OFFICES WILL BE ISSUING WINTER  
WEATHER ADVISORIES FOR THE NORTHWEST NC MOUNTAINS AND GRAYSON COUNTY  
AND FOR ROCKINGHAM AND CASWELL COUNTIES.  
 
PRECIPITATION FALLING INTO THAT STARTS WITH DRY LOW LEVEL WILL HELP  
ESTABLISH MODEST IN-SITU WEDGING BUT OTHERWISE FLOW IS NORTHEAST  
AROUND THE SURFACE. CLOUDS WILL LOWER THROUGHOUT THE DAY AND WITH  
THE POTENTIAL FOR EVAPORATION COOLING OFF TEMPERATURES DURING THE  
MORNING WILL BE GOING WITH A NON-DIURNAL TEMPERATURE TREND. THIS IN  
TURN WILL IMPACT PRECIPITATION TYPE. BUFKIT FORECAST SOUNDINGS WERE  
BELOW FREEZING ABOVE THE SURFACE AND COLD ENOUGH FOR CRYSTAL GROWTH  
BUT SURFACE TEMPERATURE WILL BE ONE OF THE LARGE FACTORS IN  
DETERMINING WHAT TYPE OF PRECIPITATION FALLS AND THE AMOUNT OF SNOW  
ACCUMULATION. SOME ENSEMBLE SUGGESTED THE NORTHERN EXTENT OF SNOW  
REACHING LYNCHBURG AND BUCKINGHAM COUNTIES. EVEN WITH LOWERING  
DAYTIME TEMPERATURES, STILL EXPECTING SOME RAIN MIXED IN ACROSS THE  
VIRGINIA AND NORTH CAROLINA PIEDMONT.  
 
THE SURFACE LOW STARTS OUT IN SOUTHERN LOUISIANA MOVES EAST-  
NORTHEAST. THE PRIMARY LOW AND LARGER PRESSURE FALLS REACH THE  
SOUTHEAST COAST THURSDAY AFTERNOON. ALTHOUGH ON A SYNOPTIC SCALE THE  
MODELS WERE COMING INTO BETTER AGREEMENT WITH THE TIMING AND  
PLACEMENT OF THE SYSTEM, THE NAM WAS STILL FARTHER NORTH ON THE  
SMALLER SCALE DETAILS THAN MUCH OF THE OTHER GUIDANCE. WILL BE  
TRENDING THE PRECIPITATION TIMING AND AMOUNTS TOWARD THE GFS/ECMWF  
GUIDANCE AND WPC RECOMMENDATIONS.  
 

 
   
SHORT TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/
 
 
AS OF 255 PM EST WEDNESDAY...  
 
LIGHT SNOW AND SNOW FLURRIES IN EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST  
AREA WILL TAPER OFF THURSDAY EVENING INTO THURSDAY NIGHT. LOW  
PRESSURE WILL PUSH OFF THE CAROLINA COAST THURSDAY EVENING INTO  
THURSDAY NIGHT. FOLLOWING THE FRONTAL PASSAGE, LOW TEMPERATURES  
THURSDAY NIGHT WILL DIP INTO THE TEENS ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS TO THE  
LOWER 20S IN THE EAST. NO STRONG WINDS ARE EXPECTED WITH THIS  
FRONTAL PASSAGE, THEREFORE WIND CHILL VALUES SHOULD NOT DROP BELOW  
ZERO.  
 
HIGH PRESSURE IN THE OHIO VALLEY FRIDAY MORNING WILL BUILD EAST  
FRIDAY AFTERNOON INTO FRIDAY NIGHT. HEALTHY CAA EXPECTED ON FRIDAY.  
BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE FRIDAY WITH HIGHS RANGING  
FROM THE LOWER TO MID 30S WEST OF THE BLUE RIDGE TO THE LOWER 40S  
EAST. UNDER MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS, LOW TEMPERATURES  
FRIDAY NIGHT WILL DROP INTO THE MID TEENS IN THE WEST TO THE LOWER  
20S IN THE EAST.  
 
THE SURFACE HIGH OVERHEAD SATURDAY MORNING WILL SLIDE SOUTHEAST INTO  
SATURDAY NIGHT. ALOFT THE UPPER RIDGE WILL BUILD ACROSS OUR REGION.  
HIGH TEMPERATURES ON SATURDAY WILL MODERATE INTO THE LOWER 40S IN  
THE MOUNTAINS TO THE LOWER 50S IN THE PIEDMONT. UNDER CLEAR TO  
PARTLY CLOUDY CONDITIONS, LOW TEMPERATURES SATURDAY NIGHT WILL  
GENERALLY BE FROM THE MID 20S IN THE MOUNTAINS TO AROUND 30  
DEGREES IN THE PIEDMONT.  
 
MEDIUM CONFIDENCE IN SHORT TERM FORECAST.  
 

 
   
LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/
 
 
AS OF 255 PM EST WEDNESDAY...  
 
SURFACE HIGH ALONG THE ATLANTIC COAST SUNDAY MORNING WILL TRAVEL  
EAST SUNDAY AFTERNOON INTO SUNDAY NIGHT. AS THE SURFACE RIDGE AXIS  
SHIFTS OFFSHORE SUNDAY, A SOUTHERLY SURFACE FLOW WILL DEVELOP. WITH  
BOTH THE ECMWF AND GFS SLOWING THE TIMING OF THE ARRIVAL OF THE  
PRECIPITATION,KEPT MOST OF SUNDAY DRY. HIGH TEMPERATURES SUNDAY WILL  
WARM INTO THE LOWER 40S IN THE WEST TO THE MID 50S IN THE EAST.  
 
MOISTURE WILL INCREASE ON SUNDAY AS AN UPPER TROUGH CRAVES OUT A  
SURFACE LOW OVER THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. A FEW SHOWERS MAY SNEAK  
INTO SOUTHERN AND WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA SUNDAY  
NIGHT. THE TIMING WAS A LITTLE FASTER ON THE ECMWF COMPARED TO THE  
GFS. UNDER MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES, LOW TEMPERATURES SUNDAY NIGHT WILL  
DROP TO THE LOWER 30S IN THE MOUNTAINS TO THE UPPER 30S IN THE  
PIEDMONT.  
 
A WARM FRONT WILL LIFT NORTH ACROSS THE REGION MONDAY, FOLLOW BY A  
COLD FRONT MONDAY NIGHT. SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS WILL SPREAD  
EAST ACROSS THE REGION MONDAY. HIGH TEMPERATURES MONDAY WILL VARY  
FROM THE LOWER 40S IN THE WEST TO THE MID 50S IN THE EAST. IT WILL  
BE RATHER CLOUDY MONDAY NIGHT WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS. IT MAY BE COLD  
ENOUGH MONDAY NIGHT FOR RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS IN THE NORTHERN  
MOUNTAINS. LOW TEMPERATURES MONDAY NIGHT WILL RANGE FROM THE LOWER  
30S IN THE NORTHERN MOUNTAINS TO MID 40S IN THE PIEDMONT. LOW  
PRESSURE OFF THE NEW JERSEY COAST TUESDAY MORNING WILL LIFT  
NORTHEAST OUT INTO THE ATLANTIC OCEAN TUESDAY AFTERNOON INTO TUESDAY  
NIGHT. HIGH TEMPERATURES ON TUESDAY WILL GENERALLY RANGE FROM AROUND  
50 DEGREES TO THE UPPER 50S IN THE PIEDMONT. LOW TEMPERATURES  
TUESDAY NIGHT WILL BE FROM THE MID 30S IN THE NORTHWEST TO THE LOWER  
40S IN THE SOUTHEAST. MOISTURE RETURNS WEDNESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY  
NIGHT AS THE UPPER TROUGH MOVE EAST ACROSS OUR REGION. HIGH  
WEDNESDAY WILL VARY FROM THE UPPER 40S IN THE MOUNTAINS TO THE MID  
50S IN THE PIEDMONT.  
 
MEDIUM TO HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THE LONG TERM FORECAST.  
 

 
   
AVIATION /20Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/
 
 
AS OF 1215 PM EST WEDNESDAY...  
 
WIDESPREAD HIGH CLOUDS EXPECTED OVER THE MID ATLANTIC REGION  
AND CAROLINAS THROUGH TONIGHT. CEILINGS WILL GRADUALLY LOWER BE  
WILL REMAIN VFR THROUGH AT LEAST 12Z/7AM.  
 
A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM THAT TRACKS FROM THE NORTHERN GULF OF  
MEXICO TO THE SOUTHEAST COAST WILL SPREAD DEEPER MOISTURE INTO  
THE REGION ON THURSDAY. EXPECT LIGHT SNOW OVER SOUTHERN VIRGINIA  
AND NORTHERN NORTH CAROLINA ARRIVING FROM WEST TO EAST FROM  
12Z/7AM THROUGH 18Z/1PM. AT THIS TIME IS APPEARS ANY MVFR  
CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES WITH THIS PRECIPITATION WILL BE AFTER  
THE 18Z END OF THE TAF FORECAST PERIOD.  
 
ABOVE AVERAGE CONFIDENCE IN CEILINGS, VISIBILITY AND WIND  
THROUGH 12Z.  
AVERAGE CONFIDENCE IS CEILING, VISIBILITY, WIND AND ONSET OF  
PRECIPITATION AFTER 12Z.  
 
EXTENDED AVIATION DISCUSSION...  
 
A PERIOD OF MVFR CEILINGS APPEARS LIKELY FOR KDAN, WHERE EVEN  
SOME PERIOD OF IFR WOULD APPEAR POSSIBLE IN LIGHT SNOW ON  
THURSDAY AFTERNOON. ALSO ALONG THE MOUNTAINS OF NC AND FAR  
SOUTHWEST VA. CEILINGS WILL CONTINUE TO LOWER TO IFR/LIFR ACROSS  
MUCH OF THE REGION BY EVENING.  
 
AS THE SYSTEM MOVES OFF THE COAST FRIDAY, WINDS WILL BACK MORE  
TO THE NORTH/NORTHWEST AND BRING A VERY DRY AIR MASS WITH VFR  
CONDITIONS TO THE AREA THROUGH SUNDAY. THE ONLY CONCERN WOULD  
BE THE POTENTIAL FOR GUSTY WINDS, ESPECIALLY SATURDAY.  
 

 
   
RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
 
 
VA...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 4 AM TO 10 PM EST THURSDAY FOR  
VAZ015.  
NC...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 11 AM TO 10 PM EST THURSDAY FOR  
NCZ005-006.  
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 4 AM TO 10 PM EST THURSDAY FOR  
NCZ001-018.  
WV...NONE.  
 

 
 

 
SYNOPSIS...AMS  
NEAR TERM...AMS  
SHORT TERM...KK  
LONG TERM...KK  
AVIATION...AMS  
 
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