367
FXUS61 KRNK 111522
AFDRNK
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA
1022 AM EST THU DEC 11 2025
SYNOPSIS
MOUNTAIN SNOW SHOWERS WILL TAPER TO FLURRIES FOR THE AFTERNOON
AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. WINDS WILL
ALSO DIMINISH WITH TIME. ANOTHER WEATHER SYSTEM WILL CROSS THE
AREA FRIDAY TO PRODUCE MORE SNOW ACROSS WEST VIRGINIA AND
WESTERN VIRGINIA. AN ARCTIC COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE AREA
SUNDAY TO BRING A FEW DAYS OF BITTER COLD FOR THE BEGINNING OF
NEXT WEEK.
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/
AS OF 1015 AM EST THURSDAY...
KEY MESSAGES:
1) LINGERING FLURRIES EXPECTED ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS THROUGH
THIS AFTERNOON.
2) WINDS DIMINISHING.
3) LIGHT SNOW FROM THE NEXT DISTURBANCE ARRIVES LATE TONIGHT.
ONGOING SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS ARE EXPECTED TO FADE
TO JUST FLURRIES AS WINDS DIMINISH. CLOUDS HAVE FADED EAST OF
THE BLUE RIDGE WITH MOSTLY SUNNY CONDITIONS EXPECTED ACROSS THE
EASTERN CWA THIS AFTERNOON. CLOUDS WILL LINGER IN THE WEST WITH
NOT MUCH SUN EXPECTED WEST OF THE BLUE RIDGE TODAY. AS A RESULT
OF CLOUD COVER AND CONTINUED COLD AIR ADVECTION, HIGHS LIKELY
TO REMAIN AT OR BELOW FREEZING TODAY FOR THE MOUNTAINS. FARTHER
EAST, SHOULD SEE TEMPERATURES CREEP INTO THE LOW TO MID 40S.
WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER THE REGION TONIGHT AHEAD OF
AN ADVANCING CLIPPER SYSTEM MOVING SOUTHEAST OUT OF THE NORTHERN
PLAINS. SHOULD SEE LOWS FALL IN THE MID TO LOW 20S. SOME LIGHT
SNOW MAY APPROACH THE WESTERN MOUNTAINS AFTER MIDNIGHT TONIGHT,
BUT IT WILL REMAIN LIGHT. THE BULK OF THE SNOW FROM THIS CLIPPER
SYSTEM WILL FALL DURING THE DAY ON FRIDAY.
WILL BE TAKING A CLOSE LOOK AT THE 12Z MODELS AND ISSUE WINTER
WEATHER ADVISORIES WHERE SNOW WILL BE MOST IMPACTFUL FRIDAY.
SIMILAR TO THE LAST COUPLE OF SNOW EVENTS, THIS ONE SHOULD START
PRIOR TO DAYBREAK WILL POTENTIAL IMPACTS TO THE MORNING COMMUTE
FRIDAY.
SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/
AS OF 225 AM EST THURSDAY...
KEY MESSAGES:
1) A CLIPPER SYSTEM WILL PROVIDE SNOW SHOWERS ON FRIDAY FOR
PARTS OF WEST VIRGINIA AND VIRGINIA.
2) ANOTHER CLIPPER SYSTEM SHOULD BRING MOUNTAIN SNOW SHOWERS
AND GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS DURING SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY.
3) BY SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT, AN ARCTIC AIR MASS WILL BRING
DANGEROUSLY COLD CONDITIONS.
WITH THE EASTERN UNITED STATES EMBEDDED IN A DEEP UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH FROM THE NORTHERN STREAM, A RELENTLESSLY ACTIVE WEATHER
PATTERN SHOULD CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT COUPLE DAYS. A WEAK
SHORTWAVE TROUGH SPIRALING AROUND THE PARENT TROUGH SHOULD PASS
OVERHEAD ON FRIDAY. THIS ENERGY WILL BRING A CLIPPER SYSTEM THAT
SHOULD PRODUCE SNOW SHOWERS FOR MOST OF WEST VIRGINIA AND
VIRGINIA. THE HIGHEST SNOWFALL TOTALS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS
WESTERN GREENBRIER COUNTY WHERE THREE TO FIVE INCHES ARE
POSSIBLE, BUT MINOR ACCUMULATIONS UP TO AN INCH MAY SPREAD
THROUGH PARTS OF THE VIRGINIA PIEDMONT. WHILE SNOW SHOWERS
SHOULD REACH THE NORTHWEST NORTH CAROLINA MOUNTAINS, IT MAY
BECOME A MIX OF RAIN AND SNOW IN THE NORTH CAROLINA PIEDMONT.
AFTER THE SNOW SHOWERS FADE ON FRIDAY NIGHT, A LULL IN ACTIVITY
SHOULD TAKE PLACE DURING SATURDAY MORNING BEFORE THE NEXT UPPER
LEVEL LOW AND ITS ASSOCIATED CLIPPER SYSTEM ENTER BY SATURDAY
NIGHT. THIS CLIPPER SYSTEM APPEARS MORE POTENT IN TERMS OF
DYNAMIC STRENGTH AND WILL DRAG AN ARCTIC COLD FRONT EASTWARD.
WHILE ANOTHER ROUND OF SNOW SHOWERS SEEMS POSSIBLE ON SUNDAY FOR
THE SAME LOCATIONS COMPARED TO FRIDAY, THE REAL IMPACT SHOULD
COME AFTER THE PASSAGE OF THIS ARCTIC COLD FRONT. BLUSTERY
CONDITIONS WILL OCCUR DUE TO GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS AND A PUNCH
OF SHARPLY COLDER AIR. THE WINDS MAY GRADUALLY SUBSIDE LATER ON
SUNDAY NIGHT AS CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE APPROACHES.
DANGEROUSLY COLD CONDITIONS APPEAR LIKELY DURING SUNDAY AND
SUNDAY NIGHT AS TEMPERATURES PLUMMET THROUGHOUT THE DAY AND INTO
THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. LOW TEMPERATURES ON SUNDAY NIGHT COULD
DIVE INTO THE SINGLE DIGITS ALONG AND WEST OF THE BLUE RIDGE,
WHILE THE PIEDMONT MAY EXPERIENCE LOWS IN THE LOWER TO MID
TEENS. FOR CONTEXT, THESE READINGS STAND ROUGHLY FIVE DEGREES
ABOVE RECORD LOW TERRITORY FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR. THE ARCTIC AIR
MASS COMBINED WITH THE WIND WILL RESULT IN WIND CHILL VALUES
DROPPING BELOW ZERO IN THE MOUNTAINS AND THE SINGLE DIGITS EAST
OF THE BLUE RIDGE. THE HIGHEST ELEVATIONS MIGHT EVEN WITNESS
WIND CHILLS TEMPORARILY FALLING BELOW -20 DEGREES. MAKE SURE TO
BUNDLE UP WITH SEVERAL LAYERS DURING THIS TIME.
LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
AS OF 225 AM EST THURSDAY...
KEY MESSAGES:
1) AFTER A FRIGID MONDAY, MILDER AIR SHOULD HELP TO MODERATE
TEMPERATURES BY THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK.
2) DRY WEATHER WILL PERSIST FOR MOST OF THIS FORECAST PERIOD AS
THE NEXT CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION ARRIVES LATE WEDNESDAY.
CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE SHOULD SETTLE ACROSS THE APPALACHIAN
MOUNTAINS ON MONDAY TO END THE RECENT STRETCH OF ACTIVE WEATHER.
THE SYNOPTIC PATTERN WILL CHANGE SIGNIFICANTLY AS THE DEEP
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH DEPARTS OFFSHORE. RIDGING SHOULD OCCUR ALOFT
DURING MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY, AND THE UPPER LEVEL FLOW
SHOULD BECOME MAINLY ZONAL BY WEDNESDAY. MEANWHILE, THE SURFACE
WIND WILL TURN TO THE SOUTHWEST AND INCREASE WARM AIR ADVECTION.
ADDING UP THESE ATMOSPHERIC CHANGES YIELDS A DRY FORECAST WITH
A MODERATING TREND TAKING PLACE. HIGH TEMPERATURES COULD
POSSIBLY RETURN TOWARDS THE LOWER 40S TO THE LOWER 50S BY THE
MIDDLE OF THE WEEK. THE MODELS INDICATE THAT A LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM MAY APPROACH THE OHIO RIVER VALLEY BY LATE WEDNESDAY TO
PROVIDE INCREASING CLOUDS. IT APPEARS THAT THE NEXT CHANCE OF
PRECIPITATION COULD REACH SOUTHEAST WEST VIRGINIA JUST AFTER
SUNSET ON WEDNESDAY EVENING.
AVIATION /15Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/
AS OF 630 AM EST WEDNESDAY...
GENERAL CONSENSUS THROUGH THIS MORNING OVER THE MOUNTAINS WILL
BE MVFR, TO BRIEF PERIODS OF IFR, AS BANDS OF SNOW SHOWERS
CONTINUE, ALONG WITH PERSISTENT UPSLOPE STRATUS. FURTHER EAST OF
THE MOUNTAINS ...FOR ROA/LYH/DAN CONTINUED VFR EXPECTED THROUGH
THE PERIOD.
MVFR/IFR FROM TNB/BCB/BLF/LWB SHOULD CONTINUE THROUGH AT LEAST
NOON TODAY, BUT LEANING TOWARDS MOSTLY MVFR AS SNOW SHOWERS
BEGIN TO LESSEN THROUGH THE DAY. BCB SHOULD RETURN TO VFR BY
LATE MORNING, BUT MVFR STRATUS LIKELY TO CONTINUE FOR BLF AND
POSSIBLY LWB THROUGH TONIGHT.
ANOTHER SYSTEM WILL APPROACH FROM THE NW LATE TONIGHT AND INTO
EARLY FRIDAY. -SN WILL DEVELOP AND COULD IMPACT BCB/BLF/LWB
TOWARDS THE LATTER PORTIONS OF THE CURRENT TAF PERIOD. AS A
RESULT, IFR POTENTIAL WILL INCREASE EARLY FRIDAY. NOT
ANTICIPATING ANY SNOW REACHING BEYOND THE MOUNTAINS UNTIL LATER
IN THE DAY ON FRIDAY.
NORTHWEST WINDS REMAIN VERY GUSTY THIS MORNING, BUT WILL LESSEN
AS THE DAY PROGRESSES. GUSTS IN THE 30KT RANGE WILL REMAIN
LIKELY. LIGHTER WINDS THIS EVENING/TONIGHT AS WEAK HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE REGION.
EXTENDED AVIATON OUTLOOK
SUB-VFR TO CONTINUE INTO FRIDAY NIGHT. CONFIDENCE BEYOND FRIDAY
IS LOW ON CIGS/VSBYS/WX. HIGH CONFIDENCE FOR A PERIOD OF BITTER
COLD SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY WITH POTENTIAL FOR SINGLE
DIGIT TEMPERATURES AND GUSTY WINDS.
RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
VA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
WV...NONE.
SYNOPSIS...BMG
NEAR TERM...BMG/PM
SHORT TERM...PW
LONG TERM...PW
AVIATION...BMG
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