515
FXUS61 KRNK 201540
AFDRNK
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA
1140 AM EDT SUN APR 20 2025
SYNOPSIS
HIGH PRESSURE WILL DOMINATE THE WEATHER PATTERN FOR THE MID-
ATLANTIC WITH A WARM SOUTHWESTERLY WIND BRINGING WELL ABOVE
AVERAGE TEMPERATURES FOR TODAY. THE NEXT CHANCE OF RAIN SHOULD
COME LATE MONDAY INTO TUESDAY MORNING WHEN A COLD FRONT CROSSES
THE AREA. THE FRONT IS EXPECTED TO STALL TO OUR SOUTH, KEEPING
UNSETTLED WEATHER POSSIBLE THROUGH THE WEEK.
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/
AS OF 1115 AM EDT SUNDAY...
KEY MESSAGES:
1) UNSEASONABLY WARM WEATHER CONTINUES FOR THIS EASTER SUNDAY
2) A CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION LATE TONIGHT INTO MONDAY MORNING
MODEST UPDATE TO THE FORECAST AS A WEAK COLD FRONT DRIFTS
SOUTHWARD ACROSS CENTRAL VIRGINIA GENERALLY ALONG THE HIGHWAY
460 CORRIDOR. PASSING HIGH CLOUDS CONTINUE TO ALLOW FILTERED
SUNLIGHT TO REACH THE SURFACE, WITH TEMPERATURES NOW IN THE
UPPER 60S TO THE MID 70S. UPPER LEVEL RIDGING PASSING OVERHEAD
THIS AFTERNOON WILL HELP NUDGE TEMPERATURES INTO THE UPPER 70S
AND THE LOW 80S, POSSIBLY THE MID 80S ACROSS THE VIRGINIA
SOUTHSIDE, ESPECIALLY IF THERE IS A BREAK IN THE HIGH CLOUDS. NO
SIGNIFICANTLY COOLER AIR ASSOCIATED WITH THE FRONT MOVING
ACROSS THE AREA TO REALLY HINDER DAYTIME HEATING.
THERE IS A LOW END CHANCE FOR LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS FOR THE MORE
NORTHERN COUNTIES WHERE THE FRONT IS EXPECTED TO MEANDER ABOUT.
TIMING OF THIS RAIN IS LATE TONIGHT INTO EARLY MONDAY MORNING.
SOME OF THESE SHOWERS COULD PRODUCE LOCALIZED AMOUNTS OF 0.1"
OF RAIN, BUT MOST WILL RECEIVE LESS, IF ANY AT ALL. OTHERWISE,
SKIES WILL REMAIN MOSTLY CLOUDY FOR THE INTO MONDAY MORNING.
SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/
AS OF 300 AM EDT SUNDAY...
KEY MESSAGES:
1) UNSEASONABLY WARM MONDAY.
2)FRONTAL BOUNDARY PUSHES THROUGH THE AREA MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY
MORNING.
UPPER LEVEL RIDGING WILL CONTINUE TO REMAIN IN PLACE OVER THE
SOUTHEAST AS THE 500MB RIDGE CONTINUES TO STAY QUASI-STATIONARY
CENTERED OFF THE COAST OF FLORIDA ON MONDAY. THIS WILL KEEP
TEMPERATURES WELL ABOVE NORMAL FOR AN ADDITIONAL DAY ON MONDAY, WITH
HIGHS IN THE UPPER 70S TO LOW 80S FOR HIGHER TERRAIN LOCATIONS, AND
LOW 80S FOR PIEDMONT LOCATIONS.
THE APPROACH OF AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH THROUGH THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI
VALLEY AND GREAT LAKES REGION ON MONDAY WILL SLOWLY START TO FLATTEN
THE RIDGE, AND NUDGE IS SLIGHTLY FURTHER SOUTH OFF THE COAST OF
FLORIDA THROUGHOUT THE DAY ON MONDAY. BY MONDAY EVENING, THE AXIS OF
THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO BE CENTERED OVER NORTH CENTRAL
MICHIGAN, WHICH WILL KEEP MUCH OF THE FORCING FOR ASCENT WELL NORTH
OF THE REGION. THE ASSOCIATED SURFACE LOW, WHICH WILL BE IN THE
PROCESS OF OCCLUDING IS EXPECTED TO HAVE A COLD FRONT DRAPED ACROSS
WESTERN NEW YORK TO THE SOUTHWEST THROUGH TENNESSEE VALLEY. AS IT
APPROACHES THE REGION OVERNIGHT MONDAY INTO TUESDAY MORNING, A LACK
OF UPPER LEVEL FORCING FOR ASCENT COMBINED WITH LOW PWATS PUSHING
INTO THE REGION AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT OVER THE REGION LOOK TO
DISSOLVE MUCH OF THE PRECIPITATION ALONG THE LEADING EDGE OF THE
FRONT AS IT PROGRESSES EAST. MUCH OF THE AREA LOOKS TO RECEIVE
AROUND 0.10" OR LESS THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING. THE EXCEPTION TO THESE
VALUES WOULD BE FOR AREAS THAT MAY SEE A THUNDERSTORM THAT COULD
PRODUCE HIGHER TOTALS OVER A SHORT PERIOD OF TIME.
AS THE FRONT PASSES THROUGH THE AREA, IT LOOKS TO SET UP IN A
EAST/WEST ORIENTATION ACROSS NORTH CAROLINA AND SOUTHERN TENNESSEE
ON TUESDAY. THIS WILL LIKELY SET UP A LINGER CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS OUR NORTH CAROLINA ZONES IN NW NORTH CAROLINA
TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING, AND POSSIBLY INTO WEDNESDAY DEPENDING
ON HOW THIS STATIONARY FRONT SETS UP.
FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE REGION, RAIN CHANCES LOOK TO REMAIN RATHER
LOW, WITH POST FRONTAL DRY AIR REMAINING IN PLACE. TEMPERATURES
AREAWIDE WILL ALSO BE SLIGHTLY COOLER, WITH TEMPERATURES RUNNING IN
THE LOW 70S WEST OF THE BLUE RIDGE, AND UPPER 70S TO LOW 80S EAST OF
THE BLUE RIDGE. LOWS TUESDAY NIGHT LOOK TO DROP INTO THE UPPER 40S
TO LOW 50S WEST OF THE BLUE RIDGE, AND MID 50S EAST OF THE BLUE
RIDGE.
LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/
AS OF 300 AM EDT SUNDAY...
KEY MESSAGE:
1) WARM TEMPERATURES CONTINUE WITH NEAR DAILY RAIN CHANCES
THE STALLED FRONT DRAPED ACROSS NORTH CAROLINA ON TUESDAY IS
EXPECTED TO SAG SOUTH ACROSS THE NC/SC BORDER ON WEDNESDAY. THIS
SHOULD KEEP RAIN CHANCES RATHER LOW (LESS THAN 30%) FOR THE ENTIRE
AREA. BY THIS POINT, THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL HAVE CLEARED THE
ENTIRE AREA, WHICH WILL KEEP HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE MID TO UPPER
70S ON WEDNESDAY.
THE AREA LOOKS TO SEE RAIN CHANCES POTENTIALLY RETURNING LATE IN THE
WEEK ON THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY AS EMBEDDED SHORTWAVES IN THE
PRIMARILY ZONAL FLOW ACROSS THE SOUTHERN CONUS PROGRESS EAST. THERE
IS CURRENTLY LITTLE CONSENSUS IN THE SYNOPTIC SCALE PATTERN, WHICH
IS LEADING TO SOME UNCERTAINTY IN THE EVOLUTION OF THESE SHORTWAVES
AS THEY ARE LIKELY DEVELOPING FROM CONVECTIVE SYSTEMS ACROSS THE
CENTRAL PLAINS EARLIER IN THE WEEK. OVERALL, RAIN CHANCES ARE
EXPECTED TO REMAIN LOW THROUGH THE END OF THE PERIOD UNTIL
CONFIDENCE IN THE FORECAST INCREASES. TEMPERATURES LOOK TO REMAIN
ABOVE AVERAGE DURING THIS TIME THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK AS ABOVE
AVERAGE 500MB HEIGHTS REMAIN OVER THE REGION. THIS WILL LEAD TO WITH
UPPER 70S TO LOW 80S FORECAST THROUGH THE END OF THE WORK WEEK.
AVIATION /15Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/
AS OF 630 AM EDT SUNDAY...
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PREVAIL THROUGH MUCH OF TODAY,
WITH NEAR CALM WINDS THIS MORNING BECOMING PREDOMINANTLY
SOUTHEASTERLY AT AROUND 5-10 MPH BY THIS AFTERNOON. WIND GUSTS
LOOK TO BE MUCH MORE RELAXED COMPARED TO SATURDAY, WITH WIND
GUSTS ONLY UP TO 15 MPH EXPECTED TODAY. OVERNIGHT TONIGHT, AS
HIGH PRESSURE SLIDES EAST INTO SOUTHEAST CANADA, VERY WEAK
WEDGING IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP EAST OF THE APPALACHIANS. THIS
WILL LEAD TO WINDS AT ROA AND LYH TO BECOME MORE EASTERLY
BETWEEN 06-12 UTC MONDAY. ALL OTHER TERMINALS LOOK TO REMAIN
SOUTHERLY/SOUTHEASTERLY THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. CURRENT CAM
GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THIS WEDGE WILL DEVELOP IFR TO LIFR
CONDITIONS; HOWEVER, THE POSITION OF THE WEDGE DOES NOT LOOK
FAVORABLE FOR THESE RESTRICTIONS TO DEVELOP, AND HAVE ONLY
INCLUDED MVFR CIGS/RESTRICTIONS FOR THE TIME BEING FOR ALL
TERMINALS EXCEPT BLF TO START BETWEEN THE 04-08 UTC TIMEFRAME.
THESE RESTRICTIONS FOR LWB, BCB, ROA, LYH, AND DAN WILL LAST
THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE TAF PERIOD.
CONFIDENCE IN THIS FORECAST IS AVERAGE.
EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK
A COLD FRONT PASSES THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT WITH A SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE TO FOLLOW TO BRING VFR CONDITIONS BACK. THIS MAY BE
TEMPORARY AS THE PASSED COLD FRONT LOOKS TO STALL IN THE SOUTHEAST
AND ITS STALL LOCATION MAY DETERMINE THE SPOT AND TRACK OF FUTURE
STORMS.
RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
VA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
WV...NONE.
SYNOPSIS...PM
NEAR TERM...CG/NF
SHORT TERM...EB
LONG TERM...EB
AVIATION...CG/EB
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