104  
ACUS01 KWNS 011612  
SWODY1  
SPC AC 011611  
 
DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK  
1111 AM CDT SAT OCT 01 2016  
 
VALID 011630Z - 021200Z  
 
...THERE IS A MRGL RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF WRN AND  
CENTRAL MT...  
   
..SUMMARY
 
 
A COUPLE OF STRONG TO PERHAPS MARGINALLY SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL  
BE POSSIBLE ACROSS WEST-CENTRAL MONTANA THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.  
   
..SYNOPSIS
 
 
A LARGE UPPER LOW IS CENTERED OVER ERN INDIANA/WRN OH THIS MORNING  
PER LATEST WV LOOP...AND IS PROGGED TO WEAKEN GRADUALLY AS IT DRIFTS  
SLOWLY NNEWD WITH TIME. MEANWHILE IN THE W...A SECOND UPPER LOW  
WILL REMAIN OFF THE BRITISH COLUMBIA/PAC NW COAST...THOUGH  
SMALLER-SCALE PERTURBATIONS ARE FORECAST TO ROTATE PERIODICALLY NEWD  
ACROSS THE PAC NW AND ADJACENT WRN CANADA. ONE OF THESE  
DISTURBANCES -- NOW OBSERVED INVOF THE WA/ORE COAST -- IS FORECAST  
TO CROSS NWRN MT LATER IN THE PERIOD...AND SUPPORT AN ASSOCIATED  
INCREASE IN DEEP MOIST CONVECTION DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON AND  
EVENING HOURS.  
   
..PARTS OF WRN AND CENTRAL MT
 
 
LATEST VISIBLE IMAGERY AND RADAR DATA REVEAL WIDESPREAD  
CLOUDINESS/SCATTERED SHOWERY PRECIPITATION ACROSS PARTS OF ID AND  
INTO WRN MT...AS A WEAK SHORT-WAVE TROUGH SHIFTS ACROSS THE AREA.  
THIS CLOUDINESS MAY RETARD SURFACE HEATING INTO THE AFTERNOON WHICH  
-- COMBINED WITH MEAGER DEWPOINTS -- MAY FURTHER LIMIT POTENTIAL FOR  
APPRECIABLE CAPE DEVELOPMENT.  
 
AS A SECOND/AFOREMENTIONED WA/ORE SHORT-WAVE TROUGH SHIFTS INTO NWRN  
MT LATE IN THE DAY...A CONVECTIVE INCREASE IS EXPECTED -- WITH  
SHOWERS AND SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS LIKELY TO SPREAD NEWD ACROSS  
PARTS OF WRN AND CENTRAL MT INTO THE EVENING HOURS. HOWEVER...IN  
ADDITION TO THE VERY MODEST CAPE EXPECTED OVER THE REGION...THE  
STRONGER FLOW ALOFT SHOULD REMAIN W OF THE COOL FRONT PROGGED TO BE  
SHIFTING EWD ACROSS WRN MT...AND THUS THE OVERALL ENVIRONMENT WILL  
LIKELY REMAIN ONLY MARGINALLY SUPPORTIVE OF STRONGER/ORGANIZED  
STORMS AT BEST. WITH A DRY SUB-CLOUD LAYER EXPECTED...WILL MAINTAIN  
LOW /5%/ PROBABILITY FOR A STRONGER WIND GUST ATTM. HOWEVER...RISK  
SHOULD REMAIN LIMITED AND VERY ISOLATED...TAPERING OFF BY LATE  
EVENING.  
 
..GOSS/GLEASON.. 10/01/2016  
 

 
 
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