395  
ACUS01 KWNS 310047  
SWODY1  
SPC AC 310045  
 
DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK  
0745 PM CDT TUE AUG 30 2016  
 
VALID 310100Z - 311200Z  
   
..THERE IS A MRGL RISK OF SVR TSTMS WRN ND
 
 
   
..SUMMARY
 
 
STORMS ARE POSSIBLE LATER TONIGHT OVER NORTHWEST NORTH DAKOTA WITH A  
THREAT FOR MARGINALLY SEVERE HAIL.  
   
..FAR NE MT...WRN ND
 
 
RECENT SURFACE ANALYSIS PLACED A WARM FRONT FROM GGW IN FAR NE MT  
SEWD TO PIR IN CNTRL SD. A LLJ IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE  
REGION TONIGHT AS THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH CURRENTLY MOVING THROUGH THE  
PACIFIC NW CONTINUES NEWD THROUGH THE NRN ROCKIES. INCREASED  
LOW-LEVEL WINDS INTO THIS FRONTAL ZONE WILL RESULT IN WAA/ISENTROPIC  
ASCENT WITH ELEVATED TSTM DEVELOPMENT STILL ANTICIPATED LATE  
TONIGHT. STEEP MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES /SAMPLED WELL BY THE 00Z GGW  
SOUNDING/ WILL SUPPORT MODERATE INSTABILITY. ELEVATED NATURE OF THE  
CONVECTION SUGGESTS STORMS WILL NOT INTERACT WITH THE LOW-LEVEL  
VEERING WIND PROFILES BUT STRENGTHENING UNIDIRECTIONAL FLOW ABOVE  
850 MB SHOULD STILL BE SUFFICIENT FOR A FEW STRONG UPDRAFTS CAPABLE  
OF PRODUCING MARGINAL HAIL.  
 
..MOSIER.. 08/31/2016  
 

 
 
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