012
ACUS01 KWNS 210542
SWODY1
SPC AC 210540
DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1140 PM CST FRI NOV 20 2009
VALID 211200Z - 221200Z
..NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST
..CENTRAL AND EASTERN GULF COAST
LATE EVENING SATELLITE IMAGERY CLEARLY DEPICTS CENTER OF UPPER VORT
OVER THE MIDDLE TX COAST...EJECTING ENEWD IN LINE WITH LATEST SHORT
RANGE MODEL GUIDANCE. THIS FEATURE SHOULD TRANSLATE ACROSS THE
CNTRL GULF COAST TOWARD THE FL PANHANDLE/GA WHERE MODEL GUIDANCE
BEGINS TO DIVERGE IN THEIR SOLUTIONS REGARDING THE PLACEMENT OF
UPPER SPEED MAX/TROUGH AXIS. IT APPEARS THE LOW LATITUDE H5 SPEED
MAX WILL ENCOURAGE THE PRIMARY BAROCLINIC ZONE TO REMAIN JUST
OFFSHORE...THOUGH WEAK SFC CYCLOGENESIS MAY BRIEFLY MOVE INLAND
ALLOWING MODIFIED GULF AIRMASS TO RETURN TO COASTAL AREAS. IF UPPER
60S-70F DEW POINTS DO SPREAD INLAND...NEAR-SFC BASED ROBUST
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY COULD DEVELOP. IN ALL LIKELIHOOD CONTINENTAL
AIRMASS WILL STUBBORNLY RETREAT AND ONSHORE BOUNDARY LAYER WILL
STRUGGLE TO DESTABILIZE. AS A RESULT...WILL MAINTAIN LOW
PROBABILITIES FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS PREDICATED ON THIS SCENARIO.
..DARROW/GRAMS.. 11/21/2009
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