386  
ACUS01 KWNS 260547  
SWODY1  
SPC AC 260546  
 
DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK  
1246 AM CDT FRI MAY 26 2017  
 
VALID 261200Z - 271200Z  
 
...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE HIGH  
PLAINS FROM CO TO THE EASTERN OK PANHANDLE...  
 
...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM THE  
SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS TO IL/IN...  
   
..SUMMARY
 
 
SCATTERED SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE CENTRAL  
PLAINS WITH ISOLATED ACTIVITY INTO THE EASTERN TEXAS PANHANDLE. A  
FEW STRONG STORMS MAY ALSO BE NOTED ACROSS PARTS OF THE MIDDLE  
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY AND OHIO VALLEY REGION.  
   
..PLAINS
 
 
LARGE-SCALE HEIGHT RISES ARE EXPECTED ACROSS MOST OF THE CONTIGUOUS  
US FRIDAY, THOUGH LARGE-SCALE TROUGHING WILL HOLD ACROSS THE WESTERN  
STATES. EARLY-MORNING WATER-VAPOR IMAGERY SUGGESTS A COUPLE OF WEAK  
DISTURBANCES ACROSS THE INTER-MOUNTAIN REGION AND ONE NOTABLE  
SHORT-WAVE TROUGH IS OBSERVED OVER THE NORTHERN BAJA PENINSULA. IN  
THE ABSENCE OF SIGNIFICANT LARGE-SCALE FORCING FOR ASCENT, IT  
APPEARS DIURNAL HEATING AND OROGRAPHIC INFLUENCES WILL PROVE  
INSTRUMENTAL IN CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT ACROSS THE HIGH PLAINS.  
 
LATEST SHORT-RANGE MODEL GUIDANCE SUGGESTS STRONG BOUNDARY-LAYER  
HEATING WILL BE OBSERVED ACROSS THE HIGH PLAINS SUCH THAT SURFACE  
PARCELS SHOULD REACH THEIR CONVECTIVE TEMPERATURES NEAR 22Z.  
SCATTERED CONVECTION IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ACROSS EASTERN CO WITHIN  
FAVORABLE SOUTHEASTERLY UPSLOPE FLOW. ISOLATED STORMS ARE ALSO  
EXPECTED TO EVOLVE ALONG THE DRYLINE INTO THE EASTERN TX PANHANDLE,  
POSSIBLY AIDED BY AFOREMENTIONED BAJA SHORT WAVE. CINH SHOULD BE  
NEGLIGIBLE ACROSS THESE REGIONS BY LATE AFTERNOON AND DEEP-LAYER  
SHEAR IS MORE THAN ADEQUATE FOR SUPERCELL DEVELOPMENT. SEVERAL  
HIGH-RES MODELS AGREE WITH THIS SCENARIO AND LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING  
WINDS CAN BE EXPECTED WITH THESE STORMS. ORGANIZED SEVERE THREAT  
WILL STRUGGLE TO REACH CENTRAL KS/SOUTH-CENTRAL NE UNTIL AFTER  
MIDNIGHT. EVEN SO, ACTIVITY SHOULD BE WANING BY THIS TIME.  
   
..MID MS VALLEY/OH VALLEY
 
 
EARLY-MORNING RADAR DATA EXHIBITS A LONG-LIVED CONVECTIVE CLUSTER  
MOVING INTO NORTHEAST KS. REMNANTS OF THIS CONVECTION MAY INFLUENCE  
DAYTIME CONVECTION DOWNSTREAM ACROSS THE MID MS AND OH VALLEY. 00Z  
MODEL GUIDANCE IS NOT PARTICULARLY HELPFUL REGARDING A CONVECTIVE  
SCENARIO LATER TODAY ACROSS THIS REGION. SIGNIFICANT CAPPING IS  
OBSERVED ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS AND THIS WARM POCKET OF AIR AT  
700MB WILL SPREAD ACROSS AR/SOUTHERN MO BY MIDDAY TOWARD SOUTHERN  
IL. CONVECTION SHOULD STRUGGLE TO DEVELOP AT THESE LOWER LATITUDES  
DESPITE SEVERAL MODEL SOLUTIONS SUGGESTING OTHERWISE. WITH NEBULOUS  
FORCING AND BROAD HEIGHT RISING EXPECTED IT APPEARS DIURNAL HEATING  
AND WEAK WARM ADVECTION ATOP THE BOUNDARY LAYER COULD AID  
THUNDERSTORM RISK. OTHERWISE, REMNANT CONVECTIVE CLUSTER OVER KS  
COULD ENHANCE STORM DEVELOPMENT OVER IL/IN LATER IN THE DAY.  
 
..DARROW/DEAN.. 05/26/2017  
 

 
 
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