250  
ACUS01 KWNS 260603  
SWODY1  
SPC AC 260602  
 
DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK  
0102 AM CDT THU MAY 26 2016  
 
VALID 261200Z - 271200Z  
   
..THERE IS AN ENH RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS THE NEB/KS VICINITY
 
 
...THERE IS AN ENH RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF WRN AND  
CENTRAL TX...  
 
...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS COVERING A LARGE PORTION OF THE  
CENTRAL AND SRN PLAINS...AND PARTS OF THE MID AND LOWER MO VALLEY...  
 
...THERE IS A MRGL RISK OF SVR TSTMS EXTENDING FROM THE UPPER MS  
VALLEY/UPPER GREAT LAKES REGION SSWWD TO THE RIO GRANDE...  
   
..SUMMARY
 
 
SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS CAPABLE OF TORNADOES AND VERY LARGE HAIL ARE  
EXPECTED THURSDAY ACROSS MUCH OF THE SOUTHERN NEBRASKA AND KANSAS  
VICINITY...AND POSSIBLY INTO NORTHEAST COLORADO...AND EXTENDING  
SOUTHWARD INTO THE SOUTHERN PLAINS. OTHER MARGINALLY SEVERE STORMS  
WITH HAIL AND STRONG WIND GUSTS MAY OCCUR ACROSS PARTS OF THE MID  
AND UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY AND WESTERN UPPER GREAT LAKES REGION.  
   
..SYNOPSIS
 
 
STEADY EWD PROGRESSION OF WRN U.S. TROUGH IS FORECAST FOR  
THURSDAY...WITH THE SYSTEM CROSSING THE ROCKIES THROUGH THE DAY AND  
NOSING INTO WRN PORTIONS OF THE PLAINS STATES WITH TIME. AS HEIGHT  
FALLS OVERSPREAD THE CENTRAL PORTION OF THE COUNTRY...A LEE LOW OVER  
THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS IS FORECAST TO DEEPEN INTO WRN KS DURING THE  
AFTERNOON...WITH A WARM FRONT EXTENDING NEWD INTO SRN NEB. THIS LOW  
AND WARM FRONT...A DRYLINE EXTENDING SWD ACROSS OK/TX...AND RESIDUAL  
OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES IN THE WARM SECTOR WILL LIKELY FOCUS SEVERAL  
AREAS OF SEVERE STORMS THROUGH THE PERIOD.  
   
..CENTRAL AND SRN PLAINS VICINITY
 
 
A VERY COMPLEX/UNCERTAIN SCENARIO IS UNFOLDING ONCE AGAIN FOR  
THURSDAY WITH RESPECT TO TIMING/LOCATION AND SPECIFICS OF EVOLUTION  
OF WHAT WILL LIKELY BECOME WIDESPREAD CONVECTION ACROSS PARTS OF THE  
CENTRAL AND SRN PLAINS REGION. ONGOING STORMS ATTM -- AND  
ADDITIONAL EXPANSION OF CONVECTION THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING -- WILL  
BE THE PRIMARY COMPLICATING FACTOR...WITH SWATHS OF THE WARM SECTOR  
BECOMING CONVECTIVELY OVERTURNED AND ASSOCIATED OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES  
BECOMING ESTABLISHED IN HERETOFORE UNCERTAIN LOCATIONS.  
 
WITH THAT SAID...THE BROADER PICTURE -- WHICH INCLUDES A LARGE WRN  
UPPER TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED/ENHANCED SWLY FLOW ALOFT SPREADING EWD  
TOWARD THE PLAINS ALONG WITH A VERY MOIST WARM SECTOR BENEATH VERY  
STEEP LAPSE RATES THROUGH MUCH OF THE TROPOSPHERE -- IS SUGGESTIVE  
OF AT LEAST LOCALLY SUBSTANTIAL SEVERE POTENTIAL. ALONG WITH RISK  
FOR VERY LARGE HAIL...LOCALLY DAMAGING WINDS AND TORNADOES WILL ALSO  
BE POSSIBLE. ATTM...TWO MAIN CORRIDORS OF SEVERE RISK INCLUDE:  
 
1. SRN NEB AND MUCH OF KS -- AND POSSIBLY INTO NERN CO -- INVOF THE  
FORECAST-TO-BE-DEEPENING SURFACE LOW AND ASSOCIATED WARM FRONT...AND  
POTENTIALLY AN OUTFLOW BOUNDARY LINGERING OVER CENTRAL AND ERN KS  
 
2. PARTS OF W CENTRAL TX INCLUDING THE CONCHO VALLEY AND BIG  
COUNTRY REGIONS AHEAD OF THE DRYLINE  
 
AS MENTIONED ABOVE...VERY STEEP LAPSE RATES ALOFT /AWAY FROM AREAS  
WHICH EXPERIENCE PRIOR CONVECTIVE OVERTURNING/ ATOP A VERY MOIST  
BOUNDARY LAYER WILL PROVIDE A VERY FAVORABLE THERMODYNAMIC  
ENVIRONMENT TO SUPPORT VIGOROUS STORMS...AND 45-55 KT SWLY MID-LEVEL  
FLOW SPREADING EWD ON THE ERN PERIPHERY OF THE UPPER SYSTEM WILL  
CONTRIBUTE TO SHEAR SUPPORTIVE OF SUPERCELLS. AGAIN  
THOUGH...NARROWING DOWN TIMING AND SPECIFIC LOCALES OF GREATEST RISK  
REMAIN DIFFICULT ATTM...WITH AN ARRAY OF THE LATEST PARAMETERIZED  
AND CONVECTION-ALLOWING MODELS EXHIBIT DIVERSE/DISPARATE SOLUTIONS  
REGARDING CONVECTIVE TIMING/INITIATION/PROGRESSION. THOUGH THE  
ENVIRONMENT APPEARS SUPPORTIVE OF RISK FOR VERY LARGE  
HAIL...DAMAGING WINDS...AND A FEW TORNADOES...DETAILS PRECLUDE ANY  
FURTHER SPECIFICATION ATTM.  
   
..UPPER MS VALLEY/UPPER GREAT LAKES VICINITY
 
 
ISOLATED STRONG/LOCALLY SEVERE STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS  
PORTIONS OF THE UPPER MS VALLEY/WRN UPPER GREAT LAKES REGION  
THURSDAY AS SHORT-WAVE TROUGHING SHIFTS ACROSS THE AREA DURING THE  
AFTERNOON. WHILE AT LEAST PARTS OF THIS REGION -- LIKE AREAS  
FARTHER S -- WILL LIKELY EXPERIENCE EARLY PERIOD CONVECTION...SOME  
DESTABILIZATION COMBINED WITH MODERATE /40 TO 45 KT/ MID-LEVEL WLYS  
WILL SUPPORT RISK HAIL/DAMAGING WINDS WITH A FEW OF THE STRONGEST  
STORMS.  
 
..GOSS/MOSIER.. 05/26/2016  
 

 
 
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