498  
ACUS01 KWNS 300102  
SWODY1  
SPC AC 300100  
 
DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK  
0800 PM CDT FRI JUL 29 2016  
 
VALID 300100Z - 301200Z  
 
...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE CO HIGH  
PLAINS INTO THE NEB PANHANDLE...  
 
...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FOR PARTS OF CNTRL AND SRN  
AZ...  
   
..THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FOR THE TX PANHANDLE
 
 
...THERE IS A MRGL RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE CNTRL HIGH  
PLAINS...  
 
...THERE IS A MRGL RISK OF SVR TSTMS SURROUNDING THE SLIGHT RISK IN  
CNTRL AND SRN AZ...  
 
...THERE IS A MRGL RISK OF SVR TSTMS FOR THE TX PANHANDLE AND NWRN  
TX INTO SWRN OK...  
   
..THERE IS A MRGL RISK OF SVR TSTMS FOR THE ARKLATEX
 
 
   
..SUMMARY
 
 
ISOLATED SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE MAINLY THIS EVENING  
ACROSS CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN ARIZONA...THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS...THE  
TEXAS PANHANDLE REGION...AND THE ARKLATEX.  
   
..CO HIGH PLAINS INTO THE NEB PANHANDLE
 
 
A MID-LEVEL SPEED MAX WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE SEWD DURING THE EVENING  
ACROSS THE REGION AND THIS FEATURE IS AIDING IN STORM DEVELOPMENT  
AND SHEAR PROFILES FOR ORGANIZED CELLULAR STORMS /INCLUDING A FEW  
SUPERCELLS/. MODEL GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THE PROSPECTS FOR AN ORGANIZED  
LINEAR COMPLEX TO MOVE SEWD ARE SUFFICIENTLY LOW TO RENDER AN EARLY  
EVENING RISK FOR SEVERE WEATHER TO BE MAINLY LARGE HAIL AND ISOLD  
SEVERE GUSTS WITH THE STRONGER STORMS. THIS ACTIVITY WILL LIKELY  
DIMINISH LATER THIS EVENING.  
   
..CNTRL AND SRN AZ
 
 
CONGEALING COMPLEX OF STORMS OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN IN CNTRL AND  
SERN AZ HAS PROPAGATED INTO THE LOWER DESERTS WHERE LARGE  
TEMP/DEWPOINT SPREADS RESIDE. AN INVERTED-V PROFILE SAMPLED BY THE  
EVENING AREA RAOBS WILL SUPPORT EVAPORATIVELY ENHANCED DOWNDRAFTS  
CAPABLE OF ISOLD SEVERE GUSTS THROUGH THE MID-LATE EVENING AS STORMS  
MOVE GENERALLY SW TOWARDS THE MEXICAN BORDER.  
   
..PORTIONS OF THE SRN HIGH PLAINS
 
 
AN ORGANIZING LINEAR BAND OF STORMS OVER THE NWRN TX PANHANDLE  
RESIDES IN A RELATIVELY WEAK FLOW REGIME BUT STRONG VEERING OF THE  
WIND PROFILE IS RESULTING IN 25-KT EFFECTIVE SHEAR MAGNITUDE. AMPLE  
MIXED-LAYER CAPE /1700 J PER KG/ ON THE AMA RAOB AND SUFFICIENT  
MOISTURE WILL PROBABLY AID IN STORMS CONTINUING SEWD ACROSS THE TX  
PANHANDLE REGION THIS EVENING. ISOLD TO WIDELY SCTD SEVERE GUSTS  
ARE POSSIBLE BEFORE GRADUAL BOUNDARY-LAYER STABILIZATION ACTS TO  
WEAKEN STORMS LATER TONIGHT AS THEY MOVE INTO NWRN TX.  
   
..ARKLATEX
 
 
A WEST-EAST ORIENTED BAND OF EARLY-EVENING STORMS OVER ERN OK/SWRN  
AR WILL RESIDE IN A VERY MOIST ENVIRONMENT FEATURING DEWPOINTS IN  
THE LOW-MID 70S DEG F. FAIRLY WEAK WIND PROFILES WILL TEND TO LIMIT  
OVERALL STORM ORGANIZATION BUT A FEW DAMAGING GUSTS ARE POSSIBLE  
BEFORE THIS ACTIVITY DIMINISHES.  
 
..SMITH.. 07/30/2016  
 

 
 
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