478  
ACUS01 KWNS 191607  
SWODY1  
SPC AC 191606  
 
DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK  
1106 AM CDT SUN AUG 19 2018  
 
VALID 191630Z - 201200Z  
 
...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER PARTS OF THE  
OZARKS REGION...  
   
..SUMMARY
 
 
ISOLATED SEVERE STORMS CAPABLE OF DAMAGING WINDS AND PERHAPS A  
TORNADO MAY OCCUR LATER TODAY ACROSS THE OZARKS REGION.  
   
..OZARKS
 
 
A LONG-LIVED AND LARGE MCS CONTINUES TO TRACK NORTHEASTWARD ACROSS  
PARTS OF KS/OK/MO/AR, WITH PRECIPITATION AND CLOUDS AFFECTING MUCH  
OF THIS REGION. 12Z MODEL SOLUTIONS ARE MUCH LESS BULLISH ON THE  
RISK OF SEVERE STORMS THAN EARLIER RUNS, LIKELY DUE TO THE EXTENSIVE  
CLOUD COVER AND LIMITED POTENTIAL FOR DESTABILIZATION.  
NEVERTHELESS, A FEW STRONG/SEVERE STORMS ARE STILL POSSIBLE OVER  
THIS AREA LATER TODAY - MAINLY IN TWO AREAS.  
 
A FEW STRONG MULTICELL CLUSTERS MAY FORM THIS AFTERNOON OVER CENTRAL  
AR ALONG THE SOUTHERN FLANK OF THE MCS. THIS REGION WILL BE  
MODERATELY UNSTABLE, BUT WITH GENERALLY WEAK WINDS ALOFT AND MINIMAL  
SHEAR. THE STRONGEST CELLS WILL POSE A RISK OF A FEW DAMAGING WIND  
GUSTS THROUGH THE LATE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING HOURS.  
 
IN THE WAKE OF THE PRIMARY CONVECTIVE BAND, SOME DESTABILIZATION MAY  
OCCUR OVER SOUTHEAST KS AND NORTHEAST OK. MOST CAMS SHOW SOME  
POTENTIAL FOR REDEVELOPMENT IN THIS AREA, WITH SUFFICIENT SHEAR FOR  
A FEW ROTATING STORMS. GIVEN THE NARROW OPPORTUNITY FOR HEATING AND  
THE LOW PROBABILITY THAT MODELS ARE HANDLING THIS SCENARIO VERY  
WELL, CONFIDENCE IS LOW. NEVERTHELESS WILL MAINTAIN THE SLGT RISK  
INTO SOUTHWEST MO AND NORTHWEST AR TO ACCOUNT FOR THIS RISK OF  
DAMAGING WINDS AND PERHAPS A TORNADO.  
   
..NORTHEAST NM
 
 
12Z MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN STRONG AGREEMENT THAT A STORM OR TWO WILL  
FORM OVER NORTHEAST NM THIS AFTERNOON AND PERSIST FOR A COUPLE OF  
HOURS. THE ENVIRONMENT IN THIS REGION WILL BE SUPPORTIVE OF SEVERE  
HAIL, WITH SUFFICIENT CAPE AND STRONG DEEP-LAYER SHEAR.  
 
..HART/GLEASON.. 08/19/2018  
 

 
 
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