620  
ACUS01 KWNS 260102  
SWODY1  
SPC AC 260101  
 
DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK  
0801 PM CDT SAT JUN 25 2016  
 
VALID 260100Z - 261200Z  
 
...THERE IS AN ENH RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS PART OF NORTHERN WI AND  
WESTERN UPPER MI...  
 
...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS SURROUNDING THE ENH RISK AREA  
ACROSS A PORTION OF THE UPPER GREAT LAKES...  
 
...THERE IS A MRGL RISK OF SVR TSTMS EXTENDS FROM THE UPPER GREAT  
LAKES REGION THROUGH THE CENTRAL PLAINS TO SOUTHEAST CO AND  
NORTHEAST NM...  
   
..SUMMARY
 
 
A LINE OF OF STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS CAPABLE OF PRIMARILY DAMAGING  
WINDS WILL SPREAD ACROSS NORTHERN WISCONSIN AND WESTERN UPPER  
MICHIGAN THROUGH THIS EVENING...WITH THE OVERALL SEVERE-WEATHER  
THREAT DIMINISHING LATER TONIGHT. ISOLATED TO SCATTERED STRONG  
STORMS...SOME SEVERE...WILL REMAIN A THREAT ACROSS KANSAS INTO  
SOUTHEAST COLORADO AND NORTHEAST NEW MEXICO...MAINLY THIS  
EVENING...WHILE ADDITIONAL STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS MAY DEVELOP  
ACROSS IOWA TO NORTHEAST KANSAS THROUGH TONIGHT.  
   
..UPPER GREAT LAKES
 
 
MID-LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH...CURRENTLY TRACKING EAST ALONG THE  
U.S./CANADA BORDER...WILL TRACK TO THE EAST-NORTHEAST THIS FORECAST  
PERIOD...REACHING NORTHWEST ONTARIO BY 12Z SUNDAY MORNING. A BAND  
OF 60-75-KT WESTERLY WINDS ATTENDANT TO THIS TROUGH WILL SPREAD  
ACROSS MN TO LAKE SUPERIOR AND NORTHERN ONTARIO. A SOUTHWESTERLY  
LOW-LEVEL JET STRENGTHENING TO 45-50 KT...AND EXTENDING INTO  
NORTHERN WI/UPPER MI TO LAKE SUPERIOR WILL MAINTAIN AN INFLUX OF  
MODERATELY STRONG INSTABILITY...AND ENHANCE DEEP LAYER SHEAR FOR  
SUSTAINED LINEAR STORM MODE. STRONG DAMAGING WINDS WILL BE THE  
PRIMARY SEVERE-WEATHER THREAT AS THE ONGOING LINEAR MCS ADVANCES  
ACROSS NORTHERN WI...UPPER MI AND LAKE SUPERIOR THIS EVENING TO THE  
EARLY OVERNIGHT PERIOD.  
   
..NORTHEAST NM/SOUTHEAST CO THROUGH KS TO IA/NORTHERN MO
 
 
A COLD FRONT WILL ADVANCE INTO THE UPPER GREAT LAKES REGION THROUGH  
TONIGHT...WITH THE TRAILING PORTION MOVING THROUGH IA AND INTO  
NORTHEAST KS BY 12Z...WHILE THE SOUTHERN EXTENT TENDS TO STALL  
ACROSS SOUTHWEST KS INTO NORTHEAST NM. LOCALLY STRONG WIND GUSTS  
WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE WITH THE ONGOING STORMS EXTENDING FROM  
NORTH-CENTRAL KS TO NORTHEAST NM AND A FEW THAT REMAIN IN SOUTHEAST  
CO. HOWEVER...GRADUAL BOUNDARY-LAYER STABILIZATION THROUGH THIS  
EVENING SHOULD DIMINISH THIS THREAT.  
 
MEANWHILE...MODELS CONTINUE TO SUGGEST STORM COVERAGE COULD INCREASE  
ACROSS NORTHEAST KS THROUGH IA ALONG THE COLD FRONT...THOUGH THIS  
ACTIVITY HAS YET TO DEVELOP...OTHER THAN A FEW ISOLATED STORMS IN  
CENTRAL IA. RESIDUAL INSTABILITY AND POTENTIAL FORCING FOR ASCENT  
AS EMBEDDED MIDLEVEL IMPULSE IN THE NORTHEAST EXTENT OF MONSOONAL  
MOISTURE PLUME FROM THE SOUTHWEST STATES COULD SUPPORT STORM  
DEVELOPMENT. IF THIS OCCURS...THEN A FEW STRONGER WIND GUSTS AND/OR  
HAIL WOULD BE POSSIBLE.  
 
..PETERS.. 06/26/2016  
 

 
 
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