111  
ACUS01 KWNS 021940  
SWODY1  
SPC AC 021939  
 
DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK  
0139 PM CST FRI DEC 02 2016  
 
VALID 022000Z - 031200Z  
 
...THERE IS A MRGL RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF SOUTH  
TEXAS....  
   
..SUMMARY
 
 
ISOLATED SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS PORTIONS OF SOUTH  
TEXAS LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT.  
   
..DISCUSSION
 
 
NO CHANGES TO 1630Z.  
 
..DARROW.. 12/02/2016  
   
PREV DISCUSSION
 
/ISSUED 1016 AM CST FRI DEC 02 2016/  
   
..SOUTH TEXAS
 
 
THE LATEST WATER VAPOR LOOP SHOWS A BROAD AND DEEP UPPER TROUGH OVER  
MOST OF THE CONUS...WHILE A MORE PROGRESSIVE SHORTWAVE TROUGH DIGS  
INTO THE SOUTHWEST STATES. MID LEVEL WINDS ARE FORECAST TO BACK AND  
INCREASE OVER TEXAS THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT AS THE UPPER TROUGH  
APPROACHES...WITH SOUTHEASTERLY LOW LEVEL WINDS ALSO STRENGTHENING.  
THIS WILL RESULT IN ENHANCED LOW LEVEL WARM ADVECTION OVER PARTS OF  
SOUTH AND WEST TEXAS. MODEL SOLUTIONS ARE SIMILAR IN THE DEPICTING  
THE DEVELOPMENT OF SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE  
REGION - MAINLY AFTER DARK. FORECAST SOUNDINGS INDICATE  
SUFFICIENTLY COOL MID LEVEL TEMPERATURES AND VERTICAL SHEAR TO POSE  
A RISK OF HAIL IN THE STRONGEST CELLS...ALONG WITH LOCALLY GUSTY  
WINDS AND PERHAPS A TORNADO. THE OVERALL SEVERE RISK IS EXPECTED TO  
REMAIN MARGINAL.  
 

 
 
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