139
ACUS02 KWNS 091726
SWODY2
SPC AC 091724
DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1224 PM CDT THU MAY 09 2024
VALID 101200Z - 111200Z
...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF
THE SOUTHEAST...
..SUMMARY
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS APPEAR POSSIBLE FRIDAY
ACROSS PARTS OF THE SOUTHEAST. DAMAGING WINDS SHOULD BE THE MAIN
THREAT.
..SOUTHEAST
UNCERTAINTY IS THE PREVAILING THEME FOR FRIDAY'S FORECAST,
ESPECIALLY ACROSS FL/GA. FORECAST GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO DEPICT AN
MCS SOMEWHERE IN THE VICINITY OF NORTH FL INTO SOUTHERN GA MOVING
OFFSHORE BY MIDDAY. THE EVOLUTION OF THIS CONVECTION IN THE DAY
1/THU PERIOD INTO THE EARLY PORTIONS OF THE DAY 2/FRI PERIOD WILL
HAVE A LARGE INFLUENCE ON OVERALL SEVERE POTENTIAL. A DAMAGING WIND
RISK MAY ACCOMPANY THIS MORNING MCS AS IT DEVELOPS EAST THROUGH THE
MORNING.
IF THE MCS CLEARS THE REGION EARLY ENOUGH, AIRMASS RECOVERY MAY
OCCUR AHEAD OF A SOUTHEAST-ADVANCING COLD FRONT EXTENDING FROM
CENTRAL VA/NC SOUTHWEST TO THE CENTRAL GULF COAST AT MIDDAY. STORMS
MAY REDEVELOP AHEAD OF THE FRONT, OR ALONG ANY OUTFLOW FROM MORNING
CONVECTION IF AIRMASS RECOVERY CAN OCCUR ACROSS NORTHERN FL/SOUTHERN
GA. THIS SCENARIO REMAINS UNCERTAIN, BUT DAMAGING GUSTS AND HAIL
COULD OCCUR WITH THIS ACTIVITY.
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED STORM DEVELOPMENT IS MORE LIKELY AHEAD OF THE
FRONT INTO PARTS OF THE EASTERN CAROLINAS WHERE THE BOUNDARY-LAYER
SHOULD REMAIN MOSTLY UNDISTURBED FROM MORNING CONVECTION. MORE
MODEST VERTICAL SHEAR/INSTABILITY IS EXPECTED WITH NORTHWARD EXTENT,
BUT LOCALLY STRONG GUSTS AND MARGINALLY SEVERE HAIL WILL BE POSSIBLE
WITH STORMS ACROSS THE CAROLINAS.
..SOUTH-CENTRAL TX
A WEST-TO-EAST ORIENTED COLD FRONT WILL STALL ACROSS SOUTH-CENTRAL
TX DURING THE AFTERNOON. LARGE-SCALE ASCENT WILL REMAIN NEBULOUS,
BUT MODEST EASTERLY LOW-LEVEL FLOW WILL IMPINGE ON THE HIGHER
TERRAIN OF NORTHERN MEXICO WITHIN A VERY MOIST BOUNDARY-LAYER
(DEWPOINTS IN THE LOW 70S F SOUTH OF THE BOUNDARY). A NARROW ZONE OF
STRONG DESTABILIZATION IS FORECAST AHEAD OF THE SURFACE BOUNDARY,
AND A FEW STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS MAY DEVELOP EITHER ALONG
THE COLD FRONT, OR ACROSS NORTHERN MEXICO IN THE LOW-LEVEL UPSLOPE
FLOW REGIME. WHILE THE RISK REMAINS SOMEWHAT CONDITIONAL, SHOULD
STORMS DEVELOP IN THIS ENVIRONMENT, LARGE HAIL AND STRONG GUSTS WILL
BE POSSIBLE.
..UPPER MIDWEST
A COMPACT UPPER SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL DEVELOP SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE
REGION THROUGH EARLY EVENING. AS THIS OCCURS, A BELT OF ENHANCED
NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT WILL OVERSPREAD THE AREA. BOUNDARY-LAYER
MOISTURE WILL REMAIN LIMITED, BUT COOL TEMPERATURES ALOFT WILL
SUPPORT MODEST MIDLEVEL LAPSE RATES AND WEAK DESTABILIZATION (LESS
THAN 500 J/KG MLCAPE). FAST MOVING, AND SOMEWHAT SHALLOW CONVECTION
IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP IN THIS REGIME. FORECAST SOUNDINGS INDICATED
INVERTED-V SUB-CLOUD THERMODYNAMIC PROFILES CHARACTERIZED BY STEEP
LOW-LEVEL LAPSE RATES AND DEEP BOUNDARY-LAYER MIXING. OCCASIONAL
STRONG GUSTS WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH THIS ACTIVITY DURING THE
AFTERNOON INTO EARLY EVENING.
..LEITMAN.. 05/09/2024
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