913
ACUS02 KWNS 231654
SWODY2
SPC AC 231652
DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1152 AM CDT THU MAY 23 2013
VALID 241200Z - 251200Z
..THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS THE CNTRL HIGH PLAINS
..CENTRAL/SOUTHERN PLAINS
MEAN UPPER RIDGE WILL REMAIN ANCHORED OVER THE MIDDLE OF THE CONUS
THROUGH THE DAY2 PERIOD. WHILE EMBEDDED SHORT-WAVES WILL ROTATE
INTO THE BASE OF THE WRN U.S. TROUGH AND EJECT NEWD...IT APPEARS THE
PRIMARY INFLUENCE OF THESE FEATURES WILL BE NOTED ACROSS THE GREAT
BASIN INTO THE NRN ROCKIES...WELL WEST OF THE HIGH PLAINS. EVEN
SO...FAVORABLE LEE TROUGHING SHOULD ENCOURAGE A MOISTENING BOUNDARY
LAYER ACROSS THE HIGH PLAINS AND SFC DEW POINTS IN THE 50S SHOULD
EASILY BE TRANSPORTED ACROSS WRN KS INTO THE NEB PANHANDLE.
STRONG BOUNDARY LAYER HEATING IS ANTICIPATED ACROSS SERN WY/ERN CO
FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND THIS WILL PROVE INSTRUMENTAL IN CONVECTIVE
DEVELOPMENT NEAR/JUST EAST OF PALMER DIVIDE SFC LOW THAT IS EXPECTED
TO MIGRATE INTO NERN CO DURING THE EVENING. FAVORABLE UPSLOPE FLOW
AND SFC HEATING SHOULD PROVE ADEQUATE IN AT LEAST ISOLATED
SUPERCELLS BENEATH MODEST SWLY FLOW ALOFT...ON THE ORDER OF 35KT AT
500MB. LARGE HAIL IS EXPECTED WITH THESE STORMS AND IF DEW POINTS
CAN RISE INTO THE UPPER 50S CLOUD BASES SHOULD BE ADEQUATELY LOW AND
SUPPORTIVE OF TORNADOES.
FARTHER SOUTH...MUCH WEAKER FLOW IS EXPECTED ACROSS THE SRN PLAINS
WHERE SFC-6KM DEEP LAYER SHEAR SHOULD BE ON THE ORDER OF 15KT. IT/S
NOT ENTIRELY CLEAR HOW CONVECTION WILL EVOLVE ACROSS THIS REGION BUT
SFC HEATING BENEATH MID LEVEL WEAKNESS/COOLER MID LEVEL TEMPERATURES
FAVOR A FEW STRONG STORMS...ESPECIALLY GIVEN THE HIGHER DEW
POINTS/INSTABILITY. HAIL IS THE PRIMARY THREAT WITH THE MORE ROBUST
ACTIVITY.
..ELSEWHERE
A FEW TSTMS MAY DEVELOP ACROSS THE CNTRL/SRN PENINSULA DURING THE
HEAT OF THE DAY AND ALONG NW-SE ORIENTED CONFLUENCE ZONE ACROSS SERN
TX INTO SRN LA. CONVECTION ACROSS BOTH REGIONS SHOULD EVOLVE WITHIN
AN ENVIRONMENT SUPPORTIVE OF GUSTY WINDS OR SMALL HAIL BUT LITTLE
CHANCE FOR MEANINGFUL ORGANIZATION.
..DARROW.. 05/23/2013
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