492  
ACUS02 KWNS 301729  
SWODY2  
SPC AC 301728  
 
DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK  
1228 PM CDT THU JUN 30 2016  
 
VALID 011200Z - 021200Z  
   
..THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS ERN NY...VT...NERN PA
 
 
...THERE IS A MRGL RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM NY AND WRN NEW ENGLAND SWD  
INTO THE DELMARVA...  
 
...THERE IS A MRGL RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM ERN CO INTO CNTRL KS AND  
NWRN OK...  
   
..SUMMARY
 
 
ISOLATED SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITH HAIL AND STRONG WINDS ARE  
EXPECTED FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING ACROSS PARTS OF THE  
NORTHEASTERN STATES...AND ACROSS EASTERN COLORADO INTO CENTRAL  
KANSAS LATE AFTERNOON THROUGH OVERNIGHT.  
   
..SYNOPSIS
 
 
A SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL MOVE EWD ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES WITH SFC LOW  
DEEPENING OVER WRN QUEBEC. A COLD FRONT WILL TRAIL SWD FROM THIS  
LOW...AND WILL SURGE EWD ACROSS NY AND PA DURING THE DAY. AHEAD OF  
THIS FRONT...DEWPOINTS INTO THE LOWER 60S F WILL EXIST ALONG WITH  
STRONG HEATING RESULTING IN SUFFICIENT INSTABILITY FOR  
THUNDERSTORMS. INCREASING WIND SHEAR WILL FAVOR A FEW SEVERE STORMS  
MAINLY OVER ERN NY...WITH MORE ISOLATED ACTIVITY SWD TOWARD THE  
DELMARVA.  
 
TO THE W...MODEST MIDLEVEL ZONAL FLOW WILL EXIST OVER THE CNTRL  
PLAINS WITH ELY UPSLOPE FLOW AND HIGHER DEWPOINTS NEAR A STALLED  
FRONT. WARM ADVECTION ACROSS THE SRN PLAINS ESPECIALLY DURING THE  
EVENING WITH A STRONG LOW-LEVEL JET WILL AID IN SCATTERED STORM  
DEVELOPMENT FROM ERN CO INTO KS OVERNIGHT WITH ISOLATED SEVERE  
STORMS EXPECTED.  
   
..MUCH OF NY SWD INTO THE DELMARVA AND OVER WRN NEW ENGLAND
 
 
STRONG HEATING WILL OCCUR DURING THE DAY ALONG WITH SOME MOISTURE  
ADVECTION. ALTHOUGH BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE IS DIFFICULT TO  
FORECAST...DEWPOINTS INTO THE LOWER 60S F SEEM REASONABLE. THIS WILL  
LEAD TO AROUND 1000 J/KG MUCAPE AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT FROM PA/NY  
INTO WRN NEW ENGLAND BY LATE EVENING. CONVERGENCE ALONG THE COLD  
FRONT WILL INCREASE DURING THE DAY...AS WILL WIND FIELDS WITH 30+ KT  
850 MB FLOW. FORECAST HODOGRAPHS WOULD APPEAR TO FAVOR SUPERCELLS  
GIVEN SUFFICIENT TURNING WITH HEIGHT AND THE OVERALL FAVORABLE  
FORCING FOR ASCENT THROUGH A DEEP LAYER. THUS...HAVE UPGRADED TO A  
SLIGHT RISK FOR HAIL...WIND...AND PERHAPS A BRIEF/WEAK TORNADO.  
 
TO THE S...LIFT WILL BE MUCH LESS...BUT INSTABILITY WILL BE GREATER  
INTO THE DELMARVA. HODOGRAPHS HERE ARE MORE STRAIGHT-LINE AND WOULD  
SUPPORT SPLITTING CELLS WITH LARGE HAIL CONDITIONALLY POSSIBLE. HAVE  
EXTENDED THE MARGINAL RISK INTO THIS AREA...BUT STORM COVERAGE DOES  
NOT APPEAR TO WARRANT A SLIGHT AT THIS TIME.  
   
..ERN CO INTO CNTRL KS AND FAR NWRN OK
 
 
STORMS WILL FORM ALONG THE FRONT RANGE BY AFTERNOON WITH WEAK  
INSTABILITY AND ELY LOW-LEVEL FLOW. A MARGINAL HAIL/WIND RISK WILL  
EXIST WITH THIS ACTIVITY. THESE STORMS MAY EVOLVE INTO CLUSTERS AND  
PERSIST AS THEY MOVE EWD ALONG THE WARM ADVECTION ZONE ON THE NOSE  
OF THE LOW-LEVEL JET...WHERE SHEAR PROFILES WILL ALSO BE A BIT  
STRONGER AND MAY SUPPORT A CONTINUED WIND/HAIL THREAT INTO THE  
EVENING.  
 
..JEWELL.. 06/30/2016  
 

 
 
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