300  
ACUS02 KWNS 290421  
SWODY2  
SPC AC 290420  
 
DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK  
1120 PM CDT THU JUL 28 2016  
 
VALID 301200Z - 311200Z  
 
...THERE IS A MRGL RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS THE CENTRAL HIGH  
PLAINS...  
 
...THERE IS A MRGL RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE  
MID-ATLANTIC...  
   
..SUMMARY
 
 
ISOLATED STRONG STORMS ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS PARTS OF THE CENTRAL HIGH  
PLAINS AND MID-ATLANTIC REGION SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING.  
   
..HIGH PLAINS
 
 
ELONGATED UPPER RIDGE IS EXPECTED TO HOLD ACROSS THE SWRN U.S.  
THROUGH THE DAY2 PERIOD WITH NEUTRAL TO WEAK 12HR MID-LEVEL HEIGHT  
RISES EXPECTED ACROSS THE HIGH PLAINS. LATE DAY1/FRIDAY CONVECTION  
ACROSS THE PLAINS WILL LIKELY IMPACT THE POSITION OF SFC BOUNDARY  
THAT SHOULD INFLUENCE TSTM DEVELOPMENT SATURDAY. LATEST MODEL  
GUIDANCE SUGGESTS WIND SHIFT WILL BE SHUNTED TO NEAR THE KS/OK  
BORDER WHERE IT SHOULD REMAIN MOST OF THE PERIOD. ALONG THE WRN  
FRINGE OF THE MODIFIED CNTRL PLAINS AIR MASS SELY LOW-LEVEL FLOW  
SHOULD TRANSPORT MOISTURE/INSTABILITY INTO THE HIGHER TERRAIN AND  
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD DEVELOP DURING THE HEAT OF THE DAY.  
WHILE MODELS DO NOT SUGGEST ANY MEANINGFUL MID-LEVEL DISTURBANCE  
WILL AID THIS ACTIVITY...SEASONALLY STRONG NWLY 500MB FLOW WOULD  
PROVE SUPPORTIVE OF ORGANIZED UPDRAFTS...POTENTIALLY SUPERCELLULAR  
IN NATURE. HAVE EXPANDED THE 5 PERCENT SEVERE PROBS SOUTH INTO NWRN  
KS TO ACCOUNT FOR BLACK HILLS CONVECTION OR TSTMS THAT DEVELOP OVER  
THE NEBRASKA PANHANDLE TO ADVECT INTO THIS REGION. HAIL/WIND ARE  
THE PRIMARY THREATS WITH THIS ACTIVITY.  
   
..MID-ATLANTIC
 
 
BROAD MID-LEVEL TROUGH WILL BE NOTED ACROSS THE OH VALLEY SATURDAY  
WITH A BELT OF STRONGER 500MB FLOW...ON THE ORDER OF 30KT...EXPECTED  
TO EXTEND ACROSS KS INTO THE DELMARVA THROUGH LATE AFTERNOON.  
FORECAST MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES ALONG THIS CORRIDOR ARE QUITE WEAK  
WITH VALUES NEAR PSEUDO-ADIABATIC. BOUNDARY-LAYER HEATING WILL BE  
MAXIMIZED ACROSS THE OH VALLEY...EXTENDING INTO WRN VA WHERE  
SYNOPTIC FRONT WILL LIKELY BE DRAPED NW-SE ACROSS THE STATE. STORMS  
THAT FORM NEAR THE BOUNDARY SHOULD HAVE SOMEWHAT ENHANCED  
SHEAR...THOUGH BUOYANCY IS NOT EXPECTED TO BE THAT GREAT. HAVE  
MAINTAINED MRGL ACROSS THIS REGION FOR POSSIBLE GUSTY WINDS WITH THE  
MORE ROBUST CONVECTION.  
   
..AZ
 
 
WITH UPPER RIDGING EXPECTED TO MOVE LITTLE OVER THE NEXT 48HR...DEEP  
ESELY FLOW ALONG THE SRN INTERNATIONAL BORDER WILL MAINTAIN 1.5+  
INCH PW ACROSS SRN AZ. IF DAY1 CONVECTIVE DEBRIS DOES NOT INTERFERE  
WITH DIABATIC HEATING...STRONG THUNDERSTORMS MAY DEVELOP OVER THE  
HIGH TERRAIN AND DRIFT ACROSS THE LOWER DESERTS. STRONG DOWNBURSTS  
DUE TO WATER LOADING COULD BE NOTED. TOO MUCH UNCERTAINTY IN DAY1  
CONVECTIVE PROCESSES CURRENTLY EXISTS TO ADD MRGL AT THIS TIME.  
 
..DARROW.. 07/29/2016  
 

 
 
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