696  
ACUS02 KWNS 230436  
SWODY2  
SPC AC 230435  
 
DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK  
1035 PM CST SUN JAN 22 2017  
 
VALID 241200Z - 251200Z  
   
..NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST
 
 
   
..SUMMARY
 
 
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE FROM ARIZONA INTO NORTHERN NEW  
MEXICO TUESDAY. ISOLATED STORMS MAY ALSO DEVELOP FROM IOWA INTO  
NORTHERN ILLINOIS.  
   
..AZ/NM
 
 
STEEP LAPSE RATES ARE EXPECTED TO SPREAD ALONG A CORRIDOR FROM THE  
DESERT SOUTHWEST INTO THE SOUTHERN ROCKIES, JUST NORTH OF A STRONG  
JET WHERE 500MB TEMPERATURES WILL BE AT LEAST -30C. ALTHOUGH  
MOISTURE WILL BE SCANT, STRONG DIABATIC HEATING COMBINED WITH  
OROGRAPHIC FORCING IS EXPECTED TO CONTRIBUTE TO WEAK CONVECTION THAT  
COULD GENERATE ISOLATED LIGHTNING DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS.  
   
..IA/WI/IL
 
 
EXIT REGION OF SOUTHERN ROCKIES JET WILL INDUCE LEE CYCLOGENESIS  
LATE DAY1 OVER CO. THIS FEATURE WILL TRACK NORTHEAST TOWARD  
SOUTHERN LAKE MICHIGAN AND ASCENT SHOULD INCREASE WITHIN A WARM  
ADVECTION ZONE FROM EASTERN NE TO NORTHERN IL SUCH THAT ELEVATED  
CONVECTION IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP. FORECAST SOUNDINGS SUGGEST LCL  
HEIGHTS WILL BE BETWEEN 850-750MB AND MUCAPE COULD BE ON THE ORDER  
OF A FEW HUNDRED J/KG. THIS ACTIVITY WILL EVOLVE ALONG THE NOSE OF  
A PRONOUNCED LLJ, POSSIBLY REACHING THE SHORES OF LAKE MI BY EARLY  
EVENING.  
 
..DARROW.. 01/23/2017  
 

 
 
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