798  
ACUS02 KWNS 311727  
SWODY2  
SPC AC 311726  
 
DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK  
1226 PM CDT TUE MAY 31 2016  
 
VALID 011200Z - 021200Z  
 
...THERE IS A MRGL RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE GREAT LAKES  
REGION SWWD INTO THE MID MS VALLEY...  
 
...THERE IS A MRGL RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS PARTS OF SOUTHWEST AND  
CNTRL TX...  
   
..SUMMARY
 
 
A FEW STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE WEDNESDAY  
AFTERNOON INTO THE EARLY EVENING FROM THE GREAT LAKES SOUTHWESTWARD  
INTO THE MID MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. A FEW SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS MAY  
ALSO DEVELOP ACROSS PARTS OF SOUTHWEST AND CENTRAL TEXAS DURING THE  
LATE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING.  
   
..GREAT LAKES/MID MS VALLEY
 
 
AN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH WILL MOVE ACROSS THE UPPER MS VALLEY ON  
WEDNESDAY AS A COLD FRONT ADVANCES EWD INTO THE WRN GREAT LAKES  
REGION. AN AXIS OF INSTABILITY SHOULD DEVELOP AHEAD OF THE FRONT BY  
AFTERNOON. ALONG THIS CORRIDOR...SFC DEWPOINTS IN THE LOWER 60S F  
WITH TEMPS WARMING TO NEAR 80 F MAY RESULT IN A POCKET OF MODERATE  
INSTABILITY FROM NEAR CHICAGO SWWD INTO WRN IL. AS LOW-LEVEL  
CONVERGENCE INCREASES ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE BOUNDARY...ISOLATED TO  
SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS APPEAR LIKELY TO INITIATE. FORECAST  
SOUNDINGS FOR CHICAGO AT 21Z/WED SHOW SOME DIRECTIONAL SHEAR IN THE  
LOW-LEVELS WITH SPEED SHEAR MAINLY ABOVE 500 MB. THIS MAY BE ENOUGH  
SHEAR FOR AN ISOLATED BUT BRIEF SEVERE THREAT NEAR PEAK HEATING. THE  
STRONGER MULTICELLS COULD PRODUCE MARGINALLY SEVERE WIND GUSTS AND  
HAIL.  
   
..SRN PLAINS
 
 
AN UPPER-LEVEL LOW WILL MOVE EWD ACROSS NRN MEXICO DURING THE DAY ON  
WEDNESDAY AS A COLD FRONT ADVANCES SEWD INTO THE SRN HIGH PLAINS. A  
MOIST AIRMASS WILL BE IN PLACE AHEAD OF THE FRONT ACROSS THE ERN  
HALF OF TX. THE GFS...ECMWF AND NAM SUGGEST THAT AN MCS MAY BE  
ONGOING ACROSS PARTS OF CNTRL AND NORTH TX WEDNESDAY MORNING.  
FURTHER SOUTH IN SRN SECTIONS OF THE TX HILL COUNTRY TO THE RIO  
GRANDE VALLEY...THE AIRMASS SHOULD HAVE A CHANCE TO BECOME  
MODERATELY UNSTABLE DUE TO LESS MORNING CONVECTION. IN  
ADDITION...FORECAST SOUNDINGS FROM DEL RIO TO SAN ANTONIO WEDNESDAY  
AFTERNOON SHOW STEEP LAPSE RATES AND ENOUGH DEEP-LAYER SHEAR FOR  
MID-LEVEL STORM ROTATION AND HAIL. HOWEVER...WEAK FLOW FROM THE SFC  
TO 700 MB WILL BE A LIMITING FACTOR CONCERNING SUPERCELL DEVELOPMENT  
AND MULTICELLS WILL BE THE FAVORED MODE. A FEW MARGINALLY SEVERE  
WIND GUSTS AND HAIL WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH THE STRONGER CELLS.  
 
..BROYLES.. 05/31/2016  
 

 
 
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.

The Nexlab SPC Page Main Text Page