887  
ACUS02 KWNS 050638  
SWODY2  
SPC AC 050638  
 
DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK  
1238 AM CST MON DEC 05 2016  
 
VALID 061200Z - 071200Z  
 
...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM A PORTION OF NORTHERN  
FLORIDA THROUGH SOUTHERN GEORGIA...  
 
...THERE IS A MRGL RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM NORTHERN FLORIDA THROUGH  
SOUTHERN GEORGIA AND SOUTHERN SOUTH CAROLINA...  
   
..SUMMARY
 
 
AT LEAST A MARGINAL RISK FOR A FEW STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS WITH  
DAMAGING WIND AND POSSIBLY A TORNADO OR TWO WILL EXIST TUESDAY FROM  
NORTHERN FLORIDA THROUGH SOUTHERN GEORGIA AND SOUTHERN SOUTH  
CAROLINA.  
   
..NORTHERN FLORIDA...SOUTH GEORGIA AND SOUTHERN SOUTH CAROLINA
 
 
DEAMPLIFYING SHORTWAVE TROUGH OVER THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS EARLY  
TUESDAY WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE MIDDLE ATLANTIC DURING THE DAY.  
OCCLUDED LEE CYCLONE OVER THE OH VALLEY WILL WEAKEN...WHILE SECONDARY  
CYCLOGENESIS COMMENCES OFF THE NORTH CAROLINA COAST IN RESPONSE TO  
THE DEAMPLIFYING WAVE. A WEAKLY UNSTABLE WARM SECTOR WILL HAVE MOVED  
INLAND THROUGH SOUTH GEORGIA AND SOUTHERN SOUTH CAROLINA TO THE  
SOUTH OF A WARM FRONT. THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE IN PROGRESS EARLY  
TUESDAY ALONG PRE-FRONTAL WARM CONVEYOR BELT FROM THE FLORIDA  
PANHANDLE THROUGH A PORTION OF EASTERN ALABAMA INTO WESTERN GEORGIA.  
MOIST INFLOW TO THE UPDRAFTS WILL BE ROOTED NEAR THE SURFACE WITH  
UPPER 60S TO AROUND 70 F DEWPOINTS...AND STORMS WILL BE EMBEDDED  
WITHIN STRONG 0-6 KM SHEAR WITH INITIALLY LARGE 0-1 KM HODOGRAPHS  
PROMOTING A RISK FOR ORGANIZED STORM STRUCTURES. ACTIVITY WILL MOVE  
THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF NORTHERN FLORIDA...SOUTHERN GEORGIA...AND  
SOUTHERN SOUTH CAROLINA WITH AN ATTENDANT THREAT FOR A FEW DAMAGING  
WIND GUSTS AND A COUPLE OF TORNADOES. IT STILL APPEARS THAT WEAK  
LAPSE RATES...WIDESPREAD CLOUDS AND ONGOING AREAS OF RAIN WILL LIKELY  
RESULT IN WEAK INSTABILITY WHICH MAY SERVE AS AN OVERALL LIMITING  
FACTOR FOR A MORE ROBUST SEVERE EVENT. AS INITIAL OCCLUDED LOW MOVES  
THROUGH THE TENNESSEE VALLEY AND NEW CYCLOGENESIS COMMENCES OFF THE  
CAROLINA COASTS...TENDENCY WILL BE FOR THE LOW-LEVEL WINDS TO VEER TO  
SOUTHWESTERLY THROUGH MID MORNING WITH A GRADUAL DECREASE IN  
HODOGRAPH SIZE. THEREFORE...GREATEST SEVERE THREAT WILL LIKELY REMAIN  
CONFINED TO A RELATIVELY SMALL WINDOW BETWEEN 12-18Z.  
 
..DIAL.. 12/05/2016  
 

 
 
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