912  
ACUS02 KWNS 200429  
SWODY2  
SPC AC 200428  
 
DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK  
1128 PM CDT SAT MAY 19 2018  
 
VALID 211200Z - 221200Z  
 
...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF  
THE OH VALLEY AND SOUTHERN ROCKIES...  
   
..SUMMARY
 
 
A FEW STRONG THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY  
REGION MONDAY. STRONG STORMS ARE ALSO POSSIBLE ACROSS THE SOUTHERN  
ROCKIES.  
   
..OH VALLEY
 
 
DESPITE A TRANSIENT SHORT-WAVE TROUGH THAT WILL EJECT INTO THE MID  
MS VALLEY MONDAY AFTERNOON, LARGE-SCALE FORCING FOR ASCENT IS  
EXPECTED TO REMAIN MEAGER ACROSS THE OH VALLEY DURING THE DAY2  
PERIOD. EVEN SO, GRADUAL MOISTENING IS EXPECTED AHEAD OF THIS  
FEATURE AND BUOYANCY SHOULD INCREASE SUCH THAT SCATTERED CONVECTION  
WILL DEVELOP ACROSS MUCH OF THE OH VALLEY. DEEP-LAYER FLOW WILL BE  
SEASONALLY WEAK BUT LIKELY ADEQUATE FOR A FEW ROBUST STORMS CAPABLE  
OF GENERATING GUSTY WINDS. PRIMARY THREAT FOR DAMAGING WINDS WILL BE  
WITH DIURNALLY DRIVEN THUNDERSTORMS.  
   
..SOUTHERN ROCKIES
 
 
WEAK MID-LEVEL HEIGHT FALLS WILL SPREAD INTO THE SOUTHERN ROCKIES  
DURING THE LATTER HALF OF THE PERIOD AS A SLOW-MOVING UPPER LOW  
DRIFTS INTO THE LOWER CO RIVER VALLEY. IN RESPONSE TO THIS FEATURE,  
LOW-LEVEL TRAJECTORIES WILL BECOME INCREASINGLY FAVORABLE FOR  
MOISTENING TO SURGE DEEP INTO WEST TX AND NM. WHILE ANY NOTABLE  
DISTURBANCE IS NOT EXPECTED TO AFFECT THIS REGION, STRONG  
BOUNDARY-LAYER HEATING AND OROGRAPHIC INFLUENCES SHOULD CONTRIBUTE  
TO ROBUST CONVECTION MAY LATE AFTERNOON. VEERING WIND PROFILES WITH  
HEIGHT SUGGEST WEAK SUPERCELLS ARE POSSIBLE. HAIL/WIND ARE THE  
PRIMARY THREATS WITH THIS ACTIVITY.  
   
..MAXIMUM RISK BY HAZARD
 
 
TORNADO: 2% - MARGINAL  
WIND: 5% - MARGINAL  
HAIL: 5% - MARGINAL  
 
..DARROW.. 05/20/2018  
 

 
 
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