334  
ACUS02 KWNS 241713  
SWODY2  
SPC AC 241712  
 
DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK  
1212 PM CDT SAT SEP 24 2016  
 
VALID 251200Z - 261200Z  
   
..THERE IS A MRGL RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS THE MIDWEST
 
 
   
..SUMMARY
 
 
ISOLATED STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE SUNDAY  
AFTERNOON AND EVENING ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE MIDWEST.  
   
..MIDWEST
 
 
MID-LEVEL HEIGHT FALLS WILL INCREASE ACROSS THE UPPER GREAT  
LAKES/MIDWEST REGION DURING THE LATTER HALF OF THE DAY2 PERIOD AS  
STRONG 500MB SPEED MAX DIGS INTO MN AFTER DARK. IN RESPONSE TO THIS  
DIGGING SPEED MAX...A SHORT-WAVE TROUGH WILL INFLUENCE FORCING FOR  
ASCENT ACROSS THE MIDWEST SUCH THAT CONVECTION IS EXPECTED TO  
DEVELOP AND FOCUS ALONG A SURGING COLD FRONT.  
 
HIGH PW AIR MASS WILL EXTEND AHEAD OF THE FRONT FROM THE SRN  
PLAINS...ACROSS THE MID MS VALLEY INTO THE UPPER GREAT LAKES.  
VALUES NEAR 1.75 INCHES SHOULD CONTRIBUTE TO SIGNIFICANT FRONTAL  
CONVECTION AS INHIBITION WILL BE WEAK DUE TO EXTENSIVE  
CLOUDS/PRECIP. LATEST SHORT-RANGE GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THE STRONGEST  
BOUNDARY-LAYER HEATING WILL OCCUR ALONG THE FRONT FROM THE ARKLATEX  
INTO NRN IL. AS 70F SFC DEW POINTS RETURN TO THIS REGION IT APPEARS  
1000-1500 J/KG SBCAPE COULD BE IN PLACE PRIOR TO TSTM INITIATION.  
SFC-6KM BULK SHEAR ON THE ORDER OF 25-30KT SHOULD BE ADEQUATE FOR  
ORGANIZED MULTI-CELL CLUSTERS...ESPECIALLY ALONG THE FORCED WIND  
SHIFT. LOCALLY DAMAGING WINDS AND MARGINALLY SEVERE HAIL ARE THE  
PRIMARY RISKS.  
 
..DARROW.. 09/24/2016  
 

 
 
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.

The Nexlab SPC Page Main Text Page