969  
FNUS21 KWNS 211531  
FWDDY1  
 
DAY 1 FIRE WEATHER OUTLOOK  
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK  
1031 AM CDT THU SEP 21 2017  
 
VALID 211700Z - 221200Z  
   
..CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR EASTERN CO
 
WESTERN KS AND FAR  
SOUTHWEST NE...  
 
THE ONGOING FORECAST IS ON TRACK AND NO CHANGES ARE NEEDED. SEE  
DISCUSSION BELOW FOR MORE DETAILS.  
 
..LEITMAN.. 09/21/2017  
   
PREV DISCUSSION
 
/ISSUED 0152 AM CDT THU SEP 21 2017/  
   
..SYNOPSIS
 
 
A DEEP UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO MOVE SLOWLY EASTWARD ACROSS  
THE WESTERN CONUS TODAY, WHILE AN UPPER RIDGE AMPLIFIES FROM THE  
OZARKS REGION NORTHEASTWARD INTO THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES. A SURFACE  
LOW WILL DEEPEN IN THE LEE OF THE ROCKIES AS THE TROUGH APPROACHES  
FROM THE WEST.  
   
..CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS
 
 
STRENGTHENING LOW-LEVEL SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW IN CONJUNCTION WITH  
STRONG HEATING/DRYING WILL RESULT IN AN INCREASING FIRE WEATHER  
THREAT THIS AFTERNOON, AND THE CRITICAL AREA HAS BEEN MAINTAINED  
ACROSS EASTERN CO, WESTERN KS, AND FAR SOUTHWEST NE. ACROSS THIS  
AREA, SUSTAINED WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE INTO THE 20-25 MPH  
RANGE DURING THE AFTERNOON AS RH VALUES FALL BELOW 15%. THIS WIND/RH  
COMBINATION IN CONJUNCTION WITH CONTINUED CURING OF FINER FUELS WILL  
RESULT IN A CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER RISK.  
   
..FOUR CORNERS REGION INTO EASTERN UT/WESTERN CO/SOUTHERN WY
 
 
ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS NORTHEAST AZ,  
EASTERN UT, WESTERN CO, NORTHWEST NM, AND SOUTHERN WY THIS  
AFTERNOON, AS SUSTAINED WINDS INCREASE INTO THE 20-25 MPH RANGE AND  
RH VALUES DROP TO NEAR 15%. WHILE MUCH OF THIS AREA COULD SEE  
CRITICAL METEOROLOGICAL CONDITIONS, FUELS ARE GENERALLY RATHER  
MARGINAL ACROSS THIS REGION, AND CONFIDENCE IN A SUFFICIENT DURATION  
OF CRITICAL RH IS TOO LOW WHERE SOMEWHAT DRIER FUELS RESIDE ACROSS  
NORTHWEST NM AND SOUTHWEST CO, SO NO UPGRADE HAS BEEN MADE IN THIS  
AREA.  
   
..PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV/FIRE FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT
 
 

 
 
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