380
FNUS21 KWNS 080829
FWDDY1
DAY 1 FIRE WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0228 AM CST SUN NOV 08 2009
VALID 081200Z - 091200Z
..NO CRITICAL AREAS
..SYNOPSIS
A SERIES OF S/W TROUGHS ARE FORECAST TO PROGRESS EWD ACROSS THE
NWRN-N CENTRAL STATES ON SUNDAY...WHILE A MID LEVEL ANTICYCLONE OVER
THE SERN CONUS GRADUALLY BEGINS TO SHIFT E TOWARD THE ATLANTIC...AND
A FRONTAL WAVE POSITIONED IN BETWEEN MOVES ACROSS THE GREAT PLAINS.
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE IS FORECAST TO RESIDE BENEATH THE SERN CONUS
MID LEVEL ANTICYCLONE...WHICH WILL CONTINUE TO MAINTAIN A DRY LOW
LEVEL AIRMASS OVER THE WRN CAROLINAS INTO THE TN VALLEY.
MEANWHILE...HURRICANE IDA IS FORECAST TO MOVE N INTO THE GULF OF
MEXICO...WITH SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING AHEAD OF THE
HURRICANE OVER PORTIONS OF TX AND LA. ELSEWHERE...SHOWERS AND
EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE ALONG THE WA/ORE
COASTLINE AS ANOTHER COLD UPPER IMPULSE APPROACHES THE
REGION...WHILE GUSTY WLY WINDS MAY ACCOMPANY A SECOND DISTURBANCE
MOVING ACROSS ERN MT AND WRN ND.
..WRN CAROLINAS AND WRN VA/NRN GA/ERN TN
MORNING SURFACE OBSERVATIONS INDICATE LOW SURFACE DEWPOINTS
/GENERALLY IN THE 30S/ RESIDE ALONG AND N OF AN AXIS OF SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE EXTENDING W ACROSS SC INTO GA/AL/MS. THE SURFACE HIGH IS
FORECAST TO SLOWLY LIFT NWD THROUGH SUNDAY AFTERNOON...AND THE
ACCOMPANYING DRY LOW LEVEL AIRMASS WILL CONTRIBUTE TOWARD RH VALUES
FALLING THROUGH THE 30S AND POSSIBLY/BRIEFLY INTO THE 20S WITH
DAYTIME HEATING. SIMILAR TO THE PAST COUPLE OF DAYS...A WEAK SURFACE
PRESSURE GRADIENT AND THE PRESENCE OF A MID LEVEL ANTICYCLONE ALOFT
WILL PRECLUDE SIGNIFICANT SUSTAINED WINDS/GUSTS FROM DEVELOPING.
THUS...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE NOT ANTICIPATED.
..ERN MT/WRN ND
A S/W TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO PROGRESS E ACROSS ERN MT/WRN ND DURING
SUNDAY AFTERNOON. AN INCREASE IN WLY MID LEVEL WINDS WILL BE
FAVORABLY TIMED WITH PEAK BOUNDARY LAYER MIXING...POSSIBLY RESULTING
IN GUSTS UP TO 30 MPH. MOST MODEL GUIDANCE INDICATES TEMPERATURES
WILL STRUGGLE TO RISE THROUGH THE 50S...AND MINIMUM RH VALUES ARE
EXPECTED TO REMAIN ABOVE CRITICAL LEVELS. THEREFORE...AN OUTLOOK
AREA WILL NOT BE ASSIGNED.
..SERN WY/NEB PANHANDLE
DOWNSLOPING W-NWLY LOW LEVEL WINDS ARE FORECAST TO STRENGTHEN AS A
WEAK/SUBTLE S/W TROUGH PASSES E ACROSS SERN WY/NEB PANHANDLE. AS LOW
LEVEL LAPSE RATES STEEPEN DURING THE AFTERNOON...WIND GUSTS UP TO
20-30 MPH ARE POSSIBLE...WHILE RH VALUES APPROACH 20 PERCENT.
HOWEVER...RELATIVELY COOL TEMPERATURES AND ONLY A BRIEF WINDOW OF
NEAR CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS WILL PRECLUDE THE ISSUANCE OF
AN OUTLOOK AREA.
..GARNER.. 11/08/2009
..PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV/FIRE FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT
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