444  
FNUS21 KWNS 281512  
FWDDY1  
 
DAY 1 FIRE WEATHER OUTLOOK  
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK  
1012 AM CDT TUE MAR 28 2017  
 
VALID 281700Z - 291200Z  
 
...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR PORTIONS OF THE LOWER COLORADO  
RIVER VALLEY...  
...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR PORTIONS OF WEST/SOUTHWEST TEXAS  
AND FAR SOUTHEASTERN NEW MEXICO...  
 
COMPLICATED FIRE WEATHER SCENARIO WILL UNFOLD LATER TODAY AS A DEEP  
CUT OFF LOW TRAVERSES THE SOUTHERN ROCKIES. LATEST THINKING IS THAT  
NEAR-CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS WILL DEVELOP IN HIGHLIGHTED  
AREAS OF THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF SOUTHWEST TEXAS NORTHWARD INTO  
SOUTHEASTERN NEW MEXICO AS A DRYLINE MAKES SOME PROGRESS EASTWARD  
TOWARD THE LUBBOCK/MIDLAND AREAS THIS AFTERNOON. INSOLATION IS  
ONGOING AT THIS TIME (ESPECIALLY IN SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THIS AREA)  
AND CURRENT THINKING IS THAT, DESPITE APPROACHING CLOUDINESS  
ASSOCIATED WITH A LOBE OF ASCENT NEAR THE MID-LEVEL LOW, SUFFICIENT  
MIXING SHOULD OCCUR TO FOSTER CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS THIS  
AFTERNOON. WEST OF THIS AREA (NEAR EL PASO AND SURROUNDING AREAS),  
RH VALUES SHOULD GENERALLY REMAIN HIGH ENOUGH TO PRECLUDE THE NEED  
FOR CRITICAL HIGHLIGHTS AND THE ATTENDANT DELINEATION HAS BEEN  
REMOVED FROM THESE AREAS.  
 
FARTHER WEST, CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS REMAIN LIKELY AMIDST  
DRY FUELS IN THE IMMEDIATE LOWER COLORADO RIVER VALLEY REGION.  
ADDITIONALLY, THE PRESENCE OF SUBSTANTIAL DRYING/SUBSIDENCE ON THE  
WEST SIDE OF THE UPPER LOW MAY FOSTER MORE PRONOUNCED LOW-LEVEL  
WARMING/DRYING THAN CURRENTLY INDICATED IN PARTS OF  
SOUTHERN/SOUTHEASTERN ARIZONA. LOCALLY CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER  
CONDITIONS MAY DEVELOP THERE FOR A COUPLE OF HOURS THIS AFTERNOON AS  
A RESULT, ALTHOUGH CONFIDENCE IN EXCEEDING TEMPORAL CRITICAL  
THRESHOLDS (GREATER THAN 3 HOURS OF CRITICAL CONDITIONS) REMAINS A  
BIT TOO LOW TO INTRODUCE ANY UPGRADES WITH THIS OUTLOOK UPDATE.  
 
SEE THE PREVIOUS OUTLOOK BELOW FOR MORE INFORMATION.  
 
..COOK.. 03/28/2017  
   
PREV DISCUSSION
 
/ISSUED 0249 AM CDT TUE MAR 28 2017/  
   
..SYNOPSIS
 
 
A STRONG MIDLEVEL CYCLONE IS FORECAST TO TRACK FROM THE SOUTHWEST  
STATES TO THE SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS. AS THIS OCCURS, SURFACE LOW  
PRESSURE WILL DEEPEN OVER THE SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS, WHILE AN  
ATTENDANT DRYLINE SHARPENS. STRONG TROPOSPHERIC FLOW SURROUNDING THE  
CYCLONE WILL OVERLIE THE RELATIVELY DEEPER BOUNDARY LAYER AND DRY  
SURFACE CONDITIONS WEST OF THE DRYLINE.  
   
..PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHWEST STATES TO THE SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS
 
 
ACROSS THE CRITICAL AREA COVERING PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN NM AND WEST  
TX, DOWNSLOPE TRAJECTORIES EXTENDING OFF THE SOUTHERN ROCKIES AND  
RELATED WARMING/DRYING WILL ALLOW RH TO FALL TO 10-15 PERCENT TO THE  
WEST OF THE DRYLINE. DEEP MIXING INTO THE STRONG TROPOSPHERIC FLOW  
WILL SUPPORT SOUTHWESTERLY TO WESTERLY WINDS OF 20-25 MPH WITH  
HIGHER GUSTS.  
 
A SEPARATE CRITICAL AREA IS IN EFFECT FOR PORTIONS OF THE LOWER CO  
RIVER VALLEY AND VICINITY IN AREAS WHERE DRY FUELS EXIST. A BELT OF  
NORTHERLY/NORTH-NORTHWESTERLY WINDS WITHIN THE WESTERN SEMICIRCLE OF  
THE CYCLONE WILL BE ENHANCED VIA FLOW CHANNELING IN THE LOW LEVELS.  
AS A RESULT, WIND SPEEDS OF 20-25 MPH WITH HIGHER GUSTS ARE  
EXPECTED. DEEP SUBSIDENCE OVER THIS PART OF THE CYCLONE AND RELATED  
DRYING WILL BE MANIFEST AT THE SURFACE AS MINIMUM RH IN THE UPPER  
SINGLE DIGITS.  
 
AN ELEVATED AREA IS IN EFFECT FOR LOCATIONS BETWEEN/SURROUNDING THE  
CRITICAL AREAS. STRONG WINDS ARE ANTICIPATED FROM PARTS OF SOUTHEAST  
AZ INTO SOUTHWEST NM, THOUGH COMPARATIVELY COOLER TEMPERATURES AND  
HIGHER RH SHOULD MITIGATE THE OVERALL FIRE-WEATHER RISK IN THESE  
AREAS.  
   
..PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV/FIRE FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT
 
 

 
 
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