225  
FNUS22 KWNS 281855  
FWDDY2  
 
DAY 2 FIRE WEATHER OUTLOOK  
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK  
0155 PM CDT TUE MAR 28 2017  
 
VALID 291200Z - 301200Z  
   
..CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTHWEST TEXAS
 
 
MINOR CHANGES HAVE BEEN MADE TO THIS OUTLOOK. THE ELEVATED AREA  
OVER SOUTHERN ARIZONA/NEW MEXICO HAS BEEN REMOVED FROM THESE AREAS  
AS MODELS HAVE TRENDED COOLER WITH REGARD TO SURFACE TEMPERATURES  
BEHIND A FRONT TRAVERSING THE REGION IN THE AFTERNOON. WIND FIELDS  
WILL REMAIN RELATIVELY STRONG, BUT 25%+ RH VALUES SHOULD MITIGATE  
ANY LARGE-SCALE FIRE WEATHER THREAT IN THESE REGIONS. THE CRITICAL  
AREA REMAINS IN TACT. ADDITIONALLY, AN ELEVATED AREA HAS BEEN ADDED  
IN PORTIONS OF THE LOWER COLORADO RIVER VALLEY, WHERE SINGLE DIGIT  
RH VALUES WILL COMBINE WITH 10-15 MPH NORTHERLY FLOW AND DRY FUELS  
TO SUPPORT AN ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER RISK. THE REMAINDER OF THE  
PREVIOUS FORECAST IS ON TRACK. SEE THE PREVIOUS DISCUSSION BELOW  
FOR MORE INFORMATION.  
 
..COOK.. 03/28/2017  
   
PREV DISCUSSION
 
/ISSUED 0250 AM CDT TUE MAR 28 2017/  
   
..SYNOPSIS
 
 
A DEEP MIDLEVEL CYCLONE AND ATTENDANT SURFACE CYCLONE ARE FORECAST  
TO MOVE ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE SOUTH-CENTRAL STATES. A DEEP/DRY  
BOUNDARY LAYER WEST OF A MERGED PACIFIC FRONT/DRYLINE, EXTENDING TO  
THE SOUTH OF THE SURFACE CYCLONE, WILL LINGER ACROSS SOUTHWEST TX.  
MORE SUBSTANTIAL COLD ADVECTION WILL OCCUR BEHIND A STRONGER COLD  
FRONT ADVANCING SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS.  
   
..PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHWEST STATES TO SOUTHWEST TX
 
 
ACROSS THE CRITICAL AREA ENCOMPASSING PORTIONS OF SOUTHWEST TX,  
DOWNSLOPE TRAJECTORIES EMANATING FROM THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF  
NORTHWEST MEXICO WILL SUPPORT WARMING/DRYING OF THE BOUNDARY LAYER.  
MINIMUM RH AROUND 8-15 PERCENT IS EXPECTED. AS VERTICAL MIXING  
DIURNALLY STRENGTHENS AMID ENHANCED FLOW ALOFT SURROUNDING THE DEEP  
MIDLEVEL CYCLONE, WESTERLY TO WEST-NORTHWESTERLY SURFACE WINDS OF  
20-25 MPH ARE FORECAST TO COMBINE WITH THE AFOREMENTIONED LOW RH  
AMID DRY FUELS. WINDS WILL TURN MORE NORTHWESTERLY/NORTHERLY THROUGH  
THE AFTERNOON/EVENING BEHIND THE SOUTHWARD-MOVING FRONT.  
 
SURROUNDING THE CRITICAL AREA, ELEVATED FIRE-WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE  
ANTICIPATED FROM PORTIONS OF SOUTHEAST AZ TO SOUTHWEST TX. DESPITE  
AREAS OF STRONG WINDS ACROSS PORTIONS OF SOUTHWEST TX TO THE NORTH  
AND EAST OF THE CRITICAL AREA, RH IS NOT EXPECTED TO BECOME  
SUFFICIENTLY LOW FOR CRITICAL DESIGNATION.  
   
..PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV/FIRE FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT
 
 

 
 
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