768
AXNT20 KNHC 281703
TWDAT
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1815 UTC WED MAY 28 2025
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA, CENTRAL AMERICA
GULF OF AMERICA, CARIBBEAN SEA, NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH
AMERICA, AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 31N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY, WEATHER OBSERVATIONS, RADAR AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.
BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1700 UTC.
..TROPICAL WAVES
A CENTRAL ATLANTIC TROPICAL WAVE HAS ITS AXIS ALONG 51W FROM 02N
TO 14N, MOVING WESTWARD AT 10 TO 15 KT. SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS
THUNDERSTORMS ARE NOTED S OF 11N BETWEEN 47W-58W.
A W CARIBBEAN TROPICAL WAVE HAS ITS AXIS ALONG 78W SOUTH OF 18N, MOVING
WESTWARD AT ABOUT 15 KT. NO SIGNIFICANT CONVECTION IS PRESENTLY
OVER THE CARIBBEAN WATERS. DECREASING SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE OVER SOME SECTIONS OF EASTERN PANAMA.
..MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ
THE MONSOON TROUGH AXIS ENTERS THE ATLANTIC THROUGH 16N16W TO
07N22W, WHERE IT TRANSITIONS TO THE ITCZ AND CONTINUES TO 06N45W.
SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION IS NOTED FROM 02N TO 07N
EAST OF 32W.
..GULF OF AMERICA
A SURFACE TROUGH IS ANALYZED OVER THE BAY OF CAMPECHE ALONG 94W.
ABUNDANT MOISTURE PREVAILS ACROSS THE NW PORTION OF THE BASIN,
THAT PAIRED WITH THE LEADING EDGE OF AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER
THE AREA, ARE PRODUCING SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS MODERATE TO STRONG
CONVECTION N OF 25N AND W OF 92W.
A SE FLOW PREVAILS ACROSS THE BASIN, WITH MODERATE TO FRESH SPEEDS
W OF 90W AND GENTLE TO MODERATE E OF 90W. MODERATE SEAS PREVAIL
ACROSS THE WHOLE AREA.
FOR THE FORECAST, FRESH TO STRONG E TO NE WINDS WILL PULSE EACH
EVENING THROUGH FRI NORTH OF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA AND IN THE
EASTERN BAY OF CAMPECHE, AS A TROUGH DEVELOPS DAILY AND DRIFTS
WESTWARD. ELSEWHERE, MODERATE TO FRESH S TO SE WINDS AND MODERATE
SEAS WILL OCCUR ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND WESTERN GULF, WHILE GENTLE
TO MODERATE SE WINDS AND SLIGHT SEAS WILL PREVAIL IN THE EASTERN
BASIN, AS HIGH PRESSURE PERSISTS OVER THE NORTHEASTERN GULF. SMOKE
FROM AGRICULTURAL FIRES IN SOUTHEASTERN MEXICO WILL MAINTAIN HAZY
CONDITIONS ACROSS THE BAY OF CAMPECHE AND WESTERN GULF THROUGH
THE END OF THE WEEK. A COLD FRONT IS SLATED TO ENTER THE BASIN
FRI NIGHT INTO SAT, LEADING TO MODERATE TO FRESH N WINDS IN THE
WAKE OF THE FRONT IN THE NORTHERN BASIN.
..CARIBBEAN SEA
PLEASE REFER TO THE SECTION ABOVE FOR DETAILS ON THE TROPICAL
WAVE MOVING ACROSS THE BASIN.
SURFACE RIDGING PERSISTS N OF THE AREA. THE PRESSURE GRADIENT
BETWEEN THIS RIDGE AND THE COLOMBIAN LOW IS SUPPORTING FRESH TO
STRONG E WINDS OVER THE SOUTH-CENTRAL CARIBBEAN, AS WELL AS IN THE
GULF OF HONDURAS AS WERE HIGHLIGHTED IN LATEST ASCAT SATELLITE
DATA PASSES. MODERATE TO FRESH E WINDS PREVAIL ELSEWHERE. ROUGH SEAS
PREVAIL OVER THE SOUTH- CENTRAL CARIBBEAN, AND MODERATE SEAS ARE
NOTED ELSEWHERE. SHALLOW MOISTURE EMBEDDED IN THE TRADE WIND
FLOW, IS MOVING ACROSS THE EASTERN PORTION OF THE BASIN RESULTING
IN SCATTERED QUICK-MOVING SHOWERS MAINLY E OF 74W.
FOR THE FORECAST, FRESH TO STRONG E WINDS AND ROUGH SEAS WILL
OCCUR ACROSS THE SOUTHWESTERN THROUGH CENTRAL CARIBBEAN THROUGH
THIS WEEKEND AS A STRONG PRESSURE GRADIENT PREVAILS BETWEEN THE
COLOMBIAN LOW AND HIGH PRESSURE TO THE NORTH. WINDS MAY REACH
NEAR-GALE FORCE OFFSHORE OF NORTHWESTERN COLOMBIA LATE TONIGHT.
ELSEWHERE, PULSING FRESH TO STRONG E TO SE WINDS ARE EXPECTED IN
THE GULF OF HONDURAS THROUGH FRI. LOOKING AHEAD, A TROPICAL WAVE
ANALYZED ALONG 52W WILL TRAVERSE WESTWARD ACROSS THE EASTERN AND
CENTRAL CARIBBEAN THROUGH THIS WEEKEND, PRODUCING NUMEROUS
THUNDERSTORMS SURROUNDING THE WAVE.
..ATLANTIC OCEAN
PLEASE REFER TO THE SECTION ABOVE FOR DETAILS ON THE TROPICAL
WAVE MOVING ACROSS THE BASIN.
HIGH PRESSURE OF 1031 MB LOCATED IN THE VICINITY OF THE AZORES
DOMINATES THE ATLANTIC FORECAST WATERS, WITH ITS ASSOCIATED RIDGE
EXTENDING SOUTHWESTWARD TOWARD THE BAHAMAS AND FLORIDA. LIGHT TO
GENTLE WINDS ARE ALONG THE RIDGE AXIS, WITH GENTLE TO MODERATE E
WINDS ELSEWHERE N OF 25N AND W OF 30W. LATEST ASCAT SATELLITE
DATA PASSES SHOW MODERATE TO FRESH E WINDS S OF 25N AND W OF 30W.
SLIGHT TO MODERATE SEAS ARE N OF 25N, AND MODERATE SEAS PREVAIL S
OF 25N. A COLD FRONT HAS PUSHED SOUTHWARD TO EXTEND ALONG 30N
BETWEEN 62W AND 74W. THE STATIONARY FRONT EXTENDS NORTHEASTWARD
TO A WEAK 1020 MB LOW CENTERED NEAR 32N56W. NO SIGNIFICANT
CONVECTION IS OCCURRING WITH THIS FRONT.
OVER THE EASTERN PART OF THE AREA, THE PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN
THE AFOREMENTIONED RIDGE AND LOWER PRESSURES IN W AFRICA IS
PRODUCING FRESH TO STRONG N TO NE WINDS OVER THE WATERS BETWEEN
THE CABO VERDE ISLANDS TO THE CANARY ISLANDS AND EASTWARD FROM
THERE. ROUGH SEAS PREVAIL WITH THESE WINDS.
FOR THE FORECAST WEST OF 55W, MODERATE TO FRESH E TO SE WINDS
WILL PULSE SOUTH OF 25N THROUGH FRI AS A STRONG PRESSURE GRADIENT
PREVAILS BETWEEN HIGH PRESSURE TO THE NORTH AND THE COLOMBIAN LOW.
ELSEWHERE, MODERATE TO FRESH S TO SW WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO
DEVELOP BY EARLY FRI OFFSHORE OF FLORIDA, WITH WINDS STRENGTHENING
AND EXPANDING EASTWARD TO 70W LATER IN THE DAY, AHEAD OF A COLD
FRONT MOVING THROUGH THE EASTERN UNITED STATES. LOCALLY ROUGH SEAS
WILL ACCOMPANY THESE WINDS. THE COLD FRONT IS SLATED TO MOVE
OFFSHORE FRI NIGHT INTO SAT, WITH WINDS TURNING TO THE WEST AND
WEAKENING BEHIND THE FRONT. THE FRONT WILL DISSIPATE THIS
WEEKEND, AND HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC.
ERA
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