953
AXNT20 KNHC 052125
TWDAT
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
0015 UTC FRI FEB 6 2026
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA, CENTRAL AMERICA
GULF OF AMERICA, CARIBBEAN SEA, NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH
AMERICA, AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 31N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY, WEATHER OBSERVATIONS, RADAR AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.
BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1900 UTC.
..SPECIAL FEATURES
WESTERN AND CENTRAL ATLANTIC GALE WARNINGS...
A STRONG COLD FRONT:
A STRONG COLD FRONT MOVING OFF THE SOUTHEAST U.S. COAST TODAY IS
GOING TO PRODUCE WIDESPREAD FRESH TO NEAR GALE-FORCE SW TO NW
WINDS OFF EASTERN FLORIDA AND OVER THE BAHAMAS. BY THIS EVENING,
THESE WINDS NEAR 28N76W WILL REACH GALE-FORCE, ALONG WITH 9 TO 11
FT SEAS. AS THE COLD FRONT PUSHES FARTHER EASTWARD FRI AND FRI
NIGHT, GALE-FORCE WINDS WILL SPREAD INTO THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC,
NORTH OF 27N BETWEEN 60W AND 70W. PEAK SEAS WILL ALSO BUILD TO
BETWEEN 12 AND 20 FT. THIS AREA OF GALE-FORCE WINDS AND VERY
ROUGH SEAS WILL SHIFT FARTHER EASTWARD ON SAT, AND THEN
NORTHEASTWARD TO NORTH OF 31N ON SAT NIGHT.
A DEEPENING LOW PRESSURE:
A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO ENTER THE ATLANTIC OFF THE
NORTH CAROLINA COAST ON FRI, THEN RAPIDLY DEEPEN AS IT TRACKS
EASTWARD INTO THE WESTERN ATLANTIC. IT WILL PRODUCE A LARGE AREA
OF WESTERLY GALE-FORCE WINDS NORTH OF 27N BETWEEN 62W AND 72W.
SEAS WILL PEAK AT 12 TO 18 FT. THESE WINDS AND SEAS ARE GOING TO
MOVE EASTWARD, TO NORTH OF 26N BETWEEN 54W AND 70W ON SUN WITH
SEAS BUILD HIGHER TO BETWEEN 22 AND 30 FT. ONCE THE LOW HAS PULLED
FARTHER NORTHEASTWARD INTO THE NORTH-CENTRAL ATLANTIC, WIND
CONDITIONS SHOULD GRADUALLY IMPROVE STARTING SUN NIGHT, WHILE THE
LARGE AND DANGEROUS SWELLS PERSIST INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.
CENTRAL ATLANTIC SIGNIFICANT SWELL EVENT:
SEAS AT 12 TO 16 FT IN LARGE NW SWELL, NORTH OF 26N AND EAST OF
44W WILL CONTINUE TO SLIDE EASTWARD THROUGH TONIGHT, AND SHIFT
EAST OF 35W BY EARLY FRI MORNING.
PLEASE READ THE LATEST HIGH SEAS AND OFFSHORE WATERS FORECASTS
ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT WEBSITES:
HTTPS://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/TEXT/MIAHSFAT2.SHTML AND
HTTPS://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/MARINE/OFFSHORES.PHP FOR MORE DETAILS ON
ALL THREE EVENTS ABOVE.
..MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ
THE MONSOON TROUGH ENTERS THE ATLANTIC ALONG THE COAST OF LIBERIA
AT 06N11W, THEN CURVES SOUTHWESTWARD TO 02N15W. THE ITCZ
CONTINUES WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD FROM 02N15W TO 02S22W TO 00N30W TO
JUST OFF THE COAST OF BRAZIL AT 03S35W. SCATTERED MODERATE
CONVECTION IS OCCURRING NEAR BOTH FEATURES FROM 05S TO 08N
EAST OF 39W.
..GULF OF AMERICA
A COLD FRONT IS EXITING THE BASIN, EXTENDING FROM THE CENTRAL
STRAITS OF FLORIDA TO ACROSS WESTERN CUBA TO JUST SOUTHEAST OF THE
YUCATAN CHANNEL TO THE CENTRAL YUCATAN PENINSULA TO THE SOUTHERN
COAST OF THE BAY OF CAMPECHE AND INLAND OVER INTERIOR VERACRUZ,
MEXICO. FRESH TO STRONG NW-N WINDS DOMINATE THE BASIN, NEAR GALE-
FORCE IN THE SE GULF, AND EXCEPT FOR MODERATE TO FRESH IN THE NW
GULF. SEAS OF 8 TO 12 FT COVER THE BASIN FROM THE NE GULF TO THE
SW GULF WITH 4 TO 7 FT SEAS OVER THE NW GULF TO THE NE GULF
COASTAL WATERS. SIMILAR SEAS ARE IN THE EASTERN BAY OF CAMPECHE.
FOR THE FORECAST, FRESH TO STRONG NW WINDS AND ROUGH SEAS FOLLOW
A COLD FRONT THAT IS MOVING SOUTHEAST OF THE GULF THIS AFTERNOON.
MARINE CONDITIONS IMPROVE OVERNIGHT FROM WEST TO EAST AS HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS ACROSS THE BASIN. MOSTLY MODERATE TO FRESH NW
WINDS WILL FOLLOW ANOTHER COLD FRONT THAT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE
EASTERN GULF SAT AND SUN. LOOKING AHEAD, HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD
OVER THE NORTHERN GULF IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT AND WILL REMAIN IN
CONTROL OF THE WEATHER PATTERN ACROSS THE BASIN THROUGH EARLY
NEXT WEEK.
..CARIBBEAN SEA
A COLD FRONT HAS ENTERED THE FAR NW PORTION OF THE BASIN EXTENDING
FROM WESTERN CUBA TO JUST SOUTHEAST OF THE YUCATAN CHANNEL TO THE
CENTRAL YUCATAN PENINSULA. FRESH TO STRONG NW WINDS ARE BEHIND THE
FRONT WITH HAZARDOUS CONDITIONS AND BUILDING SEAS INCLUDING
THROUGH THE YUCATAN CHANNEL. A SURFACE TROUGH IS AHEAD OF THE
FRONT OVER THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN FROM EASTERN CUBA NEAR 21N78W TO
11N81W. SOME SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION ASSISTED BY THE TROUGH
IS NOTED FROM JAMAICA TO ACROSS PORTIONS OF CENTRAL AND EASTERN
CUBA, CONTINUING NORTHEASTWARD OVER THE BAHAMAS. THE PRESSURE
GRADIENT WEST OF THE TROUGH TO THE FRONT IS TIGHT RESULTING IN
FRESH TO STRONG NW-N WINDS, HIGHEST ALONG AND OFFSHORE EASTERN
HONDURAS AND NICARAGUA. MODERATE TO FRESH E-SE WINDS ARE FOUND
EAST OF 76W WITH MAINLY GENTLE TO MODERATE WINDS WEST OF 76W TO
THE TROUGH. SEAS ARE 6 TO 9 FT IN THE SOUTH-CENTRAL CARIBBEAN, 6
TO 8 FT OFFSHORE EASTERN HONDURAS, AND 4 TO 7 FT ACROSS THE
REMAINDER OF THE BASIN.
FOR THE FORECAST,
..ATLANTIC OCEAN
PLEASE SEE THE SPECIAL FEATURES SECTION FOR DETAILS ON TWO GALE
WARNINGS AND SIGNIFICANT SWELL.
A COLD FRONT HAS EMERGED OFF NORTHEAST FLORIDA THIS MORNING,
BRINGING FRESH TO STRONG W TO NW WINDS BEHIND IT, AND ALSO FRESH
TO STRONG S-SW WINDS NORTH OF 27N AND EAST OF THE FRONT TO 70W.
IN THE FAR EASTERN PORTION OF THE BASIN, A COLD FRONT EXTENDS
FROM 31N15W TO 22N47W WHERE IT STALLS AND THEN CONTINUES
SOUTHWESTWARD TO THE NORTHERN LEEWARD ISLANDS. THE REMAINDER
SUBTROPICAL ATLANTIC IS UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF A BROAD RIDGE
CENTERED BY A 1025 MB HIGH NEAR 30.5N44W. WINDS ARE MODERATE OR
WEAKER ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF THE WATERS.
FOR SEAS, ROUGH SEAS OR GREATER ARE NORTH OF 19N AND EAST OF 57W,
WITH VERY ROUGH SEAS NORTH OF 25N BETWEEN 14W AND 44W, PEAKING AT
18 FT NEAR 31N25W. SEAS ARE 6 TO 8 FT SOUTH OF 19N, WITH 4 TO 7 FT
SEAS ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF THE WATERS, INCLUDING THE SW N
ATLANTIC OFFSHORE ZONES.
FOR THE FORECAST WEST OF 55W,
LEWITSKY
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