771  
AXNT20 KNHC 191019  
TWDAT  
 
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION  
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL  
1205 UTC TUE MAR 19 2024  
 
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA, CENTRAL AMERICA  
GULF OF MEXICO, CARIBBEAN SEA, NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH  
AMERICA, AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE  
EQUATOR TO 31N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE  
IMAGERY, WEATHER OBSERVATIONS, RADAR AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.  
 
BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH  
1015 UTC.  
   
..SPECIAL FEATURES  
 
WESTERN ATLANTIC GALE WARNING: A COLD FRONT THAT EXTENDS FROM  
NEAR 31N75W TO INLAND SOUTH FLORIDA WILL PROGRESS EASTWARD  
ACROSS THE WESTERN ATLANTIC FOR THE NEXT FEW DAYS. SOUTHWEST  
GALE-FORCE WINDS PRECEDE THE FRONT NORTH OF ABOUT 29N AND EAST  
TO 65W, AND NORTHWEST GALE-FORCE WINDS ARE BEHIND THE FRONT. AN  
OVERNIGHT ASCAT SATELLITE DATA PASS CAPTURED THE GALE-FORCE  
NORTHWEST WINDS AS THEY BEGIN TO FILTER IN BEHIND THE FRONT. THE  
GALE-FORCE WINDS BOTH AHEAD AND BEHIND THE FRONT ARE GENERALLY  
CONFINED TO NORTH OF 29N BETWEEN 72W AND 77W. THEY WILL CONTINUE  
THROUGH THIS MORNING BEHIND THE FRONT AND LAST INTO THIS AFTERNOON  
AHEAD OF THE FRONT. SEAS WITH THESE WINDS ARE IN THE RANGE OF 9  
TO 12 FT. THESE NEAR-GALE TO GALE-FORCE WINDS AND VERY ROUGH SEAS  
WILL SHIFT EASTWARD WITH THE COLD FRONT TO NORTH OF 29N BETWEEN  
62W AND 67W BY EARLY THIS AFTERNOON. AS THIS FRONT WEAKENS  
THROUGH THIS EVENING, BOTH WINDS AND SEAS SHOULD GRADUALLY  
SUBSIDE.  
 
MARINERS SHOULD MONITOR THESE HAZARDOUS MARINE CONDITIONS, AND  
PLAN THEIR ROUTES ACCORDINGLY. PLEASE, READ THE LATEST HIGH SEAS  
FORECASTS, AND THE OFFSHORE WATERS FORECASTS, THAT ARE ISSUED BY  
THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER, AT THE WEBSITES:  
HTTPS//WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/TEXT/MIAHSFAT2.SHTML, AND  
HTTPS//WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/MARINE/OFFSHORES.PHP, FOR MORE DETAILS.  
   
..MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ  
 
THE MONSOON TROUGH ENTERS THE ATLANTIC THROUGH THE COAST OF GUINEA  
NEAR 11N15W AND CONTINUES SOUTHWESTWARD TO 04N18W AND TO 02N25W,  
WHERE OVERNIGHT SCATTEROMETER DATA INDICATES THAT IT TRANSITIONS  
TO THE ITCZ AND CONTINUES TO 00N34W AND TO JUST SOUTH OF THE  
EQUATOR TO NEAR 01S46W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS SOUTH OF  
THE TROUGH EAST OF 22W TO ALONG THE COAST OF AFRICA AND WITHIN 60  
NM EITHER SIDE OF THE ITCZ BETWEEN 31W-46W.  
   
..GULF OF MEXICO  
 
A COLD FRONT EXTENDS FROM NEAR FORT MYERS, FLORIDA TO 24N90W AND  
TO TAMPICO, MEXICO. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS  
ARE PRESENT ALONG AND NORTH OF THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY EAST OF 87W.  
SIMILAR ACTIVITY IS OVER THE STRAITS OF FLORIDA AND ALONG AND JUST  
OFFSHORE CENTRAL CUBA. AN OVERNIGHT ASCAT SATELLITE DATA PASS  
NICELY DEPICTED NORTH-NORTHEAST WINDS OF FRESH TO STRONG SPEEDS  
NORTH OF THE FRONT OVER THE CENTRAL GULF. SEAS OVER THESE WATERS  
ARE 7-10 FT, WITH THE HIGHEST SEAS OCCURRING FROM 24N TO 26N  
BETWEEN 93W AND 97W. MODERATE OR WEAKER WINDS AND SLIGHT TO  
MODERATE SEAS PREVAIL ELSEWHERE.  
 
FOR THE FORECAST, THE AFOREMENTIONED COLD FRONT WILL EXIT THE  
EXIT THE GULF THIS MORNING. FRESH TO STRONG WINDS AND ROUGH SEAS  
BEHIND THE FRONT WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THIS MORNING. LOW PRESSURE  
IS FORECAST TO DEVELOP OVER THE NW GULF NEAR THE TEXAS COAST ON  
THU, THEN TRACK EAST-NORTHEAST TOWARD THE NE GULF BY FRI PUSHING A  
COLD FRONT ACROSS THE BASIN. THE LOW IS EXPECTED TO MOVE INLAND  
NORTHERN FLORIDA LATE ON FRI. THIS NEXT FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL BRING  
INCREASING WINDS AND SEAS TO THE AFFECTED WATERS, AS WELL AS  
WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.  
   
..CARIBBEAN SEA  
 
BROAD HIGH PRESSURE IS PRESENT OVER THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN  
ATLANTIC. THE PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN THE AFOREMENTIONED RIDGE  
AND LOWER PRESSURES IN NORTHERN SOUTH AMERICA IS MAINTAINING  
FRESH TO STRONG TRADE WINDS ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHEASTERN  
CARIBBEAN WATERS. PARTIAL OVERNIGHT ASCAT SATELLITE DATA PASSES  
OVER THESE AREAS INDICATED THE PRESENCE OF THESE WINDS. SEAS IN  
THE AREAS DESCRIBED ARE 7-9 FT. MODERATE OR WEAKER WINDS AND  
SLIGHT TO MODERATE SEAS ARE PREVALENT IN THE REMAINDER OF THE  
BASIN.  
 
FOR THE FORECAST, THE HIGH PRESSURE DESCRIBED ABOVE WILL SUPPORT  
FRESH TO STRONG TRADE WINDS ACROSS THE EASTERN AND CENTRAL  
CARIBBEAN THROUGH TUE. AFTERWARD, WINDS WILL DIMINISH TO MODERATE  
TO FRESH SPEEDS AS A COLD FRONT MOVES ACROSS THE WESTERN ATLANTIC.  
THIS FRONT WILL PUSH SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE NORTHWEST CARIBBEAN  
TODAY, THEN REACH EASTERN CUBA ON WED WHILE DISSIPATING. FRESH TO  
STRONG NORTHEAST TO EAST WINDS WILL CONTINUE NEAR THE COAST OF  
COLOMBIA THROUGH SAT NIGHT WHILE DECREASING IN COVERAGE.  
   
..ATLANTIC OCEAN  
 
PLEASE, REFER TO THE SPECIAL FEATURES SECTION ABOVE FOR DETAILS  
ABOUT THE GALE WARNING OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC.  
 
A COLD FRONT EXTENDS FROM NEAR 31N74W TO SOUTH FLORIDA. SATELLITE  
IMAGERY SHOWS CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS  
MOVING EASTWARD TO THE SOUTHEAST OF THE FRONT. THIS ACTIVITY  
IS NOTED FROM 27N TO 31N BETWEEN 70W AND 76W. SCATTERED SHOWERS  
ARE WEST OF THE FRONT FROM 27N TO 29N. AN OVERNIGHT ASCAT  
SATELLITE DATA PASS SHOWS FRESH TO STRONG NORTHWEST WINDS  
ELSEWHERE WEST OF THE FRONT. SEAS ARE 8 TO 12 FT WEST OF THE  
FRONT. FRESH TO STRONG SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST WINDS WITH SEAS 8 TO 10  
FT ARE EAST OF THE FRONT TO 61W AND NORTH OF ABOUT 28N, WITH THE  
EXCEPTION OF THE GALE CONDITIONS DESCRIBED UNDER THE SPECIAL  
FEATURES SECTION.  
 
THE WEATHER PATTERN FOR THE REST OF THE TROPICAL ATLANTIC IS  
TIED TO HIGH PRESSURE OF 1024 MB THAT IS ANALYZED NEAR 29N41W.  
A BROAD RIDGE EXTENDS WESTWARD FROM THIS HIGH TO THE CENTRAL  
ATLANTIC. THE PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN THIS RIDGE AND LOWER  
PRESSURES IN THE DEEP TROPICS AND WESTERN AFRICA SUPPORT MODERATE  
TO FRESH EASTERLY TRADE WINDS SOUTH OF 26N AND SEAS OF 6-9 FT.  
MODERATE OR WEAKER WINDS AND MODERATE SEAS ARE PRESENT IN THE REST  
OF THE BASIN.  
 
FOR THE FORECAST, THE AFOREMENTIONED COLD FRONT WILL REACH FROM  
NEAR 31N70W TO THE STRAITS OF FLORIDA THIS MORNING, FROM NEAR  
BERMUDA TO THE CENTRAL BAHAMAS EARLY THIS AFTERNOON, THEN WEAKEN  
AS IT REACHES FROM NEAR 31N56W TO EASTERN CUBA BY WED MORNING.  
FRESH TO STRONG WINDS AND ROUGH SEAS ARE AHEAD AND BEHIND THE  
FRONT, WITH GALE FORCE WINDS OVER THE WATERS NORTH OF 27N. THE  
GALE FORCE WINDS BEHIND THE FRONT END THIS MORNING WHILE THOSE  
EAST OF THE FRONT END LATE THIS AFTERNOON. WEAK LOW PRESSURE MAY  
FORM ALONG THE FRONT NEAR 30N56W ON THU MORNING, WITH THE FRONT  
REACHING NORTHERN HISPANIOLA. HIGH PRESSURE IN ITS WAKE WILL  
QUICKLY SHIFT EASTWARD THROUGH FRI NIGHT, ALLOWING FOR FRESH TO  
STRONG SOUTHERLY WINDS TO DEVELOP OVER THE WESTERN HALF OF THE  
FORECAST WATERS AS LOW PRESSURE TRACKS NORTHEASTWARD FROM THE GULF  
OF MEXICO TO OVER NORTHERN FLORIDA, AND TO NORTH OF THE AREA SAT  
AND SAT NIGHT. THESE WINDS WILL EXPAND IN COVERAGE AS THEY SHIFT  
EASTWARD AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT THAT WILL TRAIL FROM THE LOW OVER  
THE WESTERN WATERS.  
 
 
AGUIRRE  
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