530  
AXNT20 KNHC 271721  
TWDAT  
 
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION  
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL  
120 PM EDT TUE JUN 27 2017  
 
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA, CENTRAL AMERICA  
GULF OF MEXICO, CARIBBEAN SEA, NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH  
AMERICA, AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE  
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE  
IMAGERY, WEATHER OBSERVATIONS, RADAR AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.  
 
BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH  
1700 UTC.  
   
..TROPICAL WAVES
 
 
A TROPICAL WAVE HAS ITS AXIS JUST OFF THE AFRICA COAST ALONG 17W  
FROM 10N TO 20N AND IS MOVING WEST AT 10-15 KT. SCATTERED  
MODERATE CONVECTION IS LOCATED UP TO THREE DEGREES EITHER SIDE  
OF THE WAVE AXIS.  
 
A TROPICAL WAVE HAS ITS AXIS ALONG 32W FROM 02N TO 11N AND IS  
MOVING WEST AT 15 KT. VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS A SAHARAN  
DRY AIR LAYER AND DUST IN THE VICINITY OF THE WAVE. SCATTERED  
MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION IS LOCATED WITHIN 2 TO 3 DEGREES  
EITHER SIDE OF THE WAVE AXIS.  
 
A TROPICAL WAVE HAS ITS AXIS FROM 14N53W TO 05N56W AND IS MOVING  
WEST AT 15 KT. THE WAVE IS EASILY IDENTIFIABLE ON VISIBLE  
SATELLITE IMAGERY WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS  
MAINLY WEST OF THE WAVE AXIS FROM 08N TO 13N BETWEEN 55W  
AND 61W.  
 
A TROPICAL WAVE IS LOCATED OVER THE WEST CENTRAL CARIBBEAN WITH  
THE AXIS ALONG 78W FROM 09N TO 20N AND IS MOVING WEST AT 15 KT.  
THIS WAVE IS ALSO EVIDENT IN VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY WITH  
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS SOUTH OF 14N WEST OF 80W  
INTO CENTRAL AMERICA AND FROM 15N TO 19N BETWEEN 75W AND 82W.  
 
A TROPICAL WAVE IS LOCATED OVER THE YUCATAN PENINSULA AND  
CENTRAL AMERICA WITH THE AXIS ALONG 89W FROM 10N TO 22N AND  
MOVING WEST AT ABOUT 10 KT. ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION IS  
OBSERVED MAINLY OVER BELIZE.  
   
..MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ
 
 
THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE COAST OF AFRICA NEAR 21N17W  
SOUTHWEST TO NEAR 09N29W. THE INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE IS  
LOCATED FROM 06N34W TO 10N50W. ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION IS  
LOCATED UP TO 180 NM EITHER SIDE OF THE MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ.  
   
..DISCUSSION
 
 
GULF OF MEXICO...  
 
DIFLUENT FLOW ALOFT OVER THE WESTERN HALF OF THE GULF IS  
SUPPORTING SCATTERED SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT NORTH  
OF 24N WEST OF 90W. A 1011 MB LOW IS LOCATED ALONG THE LOWER  
TEXAS COAST WITH A TROUGH LOCATED FROM THE UPPER TEXAS COAST TO  
NEAR 24N98W. A STATIONARY FRONT IS ANALYZED FROM 30N80W TO  
29N90W. ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORM ARE NOTED ALONG AND  
UP TO 2 DEGREES NORTH OF THE FRONT. THIS FRONTAL BOUNDARY IS  
FORECAST TO GRADUALLY BECOME DIFFUSE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AND  
EVENING HOURS. A SURFACE TROUGH IS LOCATED IN THE EASTERN BAY  
OF CAMPECHE.  
 
CARIBBEAN SEA...  
 
THE MAIN FEATURES IN THE BASIN ARE TWO TROPICAL WAVES ALREADY  
DISCUSSED IN THE SECTION ABOVE. WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE  
TO NEAR GALE ACROSS THE GULF OF VENEZUELA TOMORROW AND THURSDAY.  
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE DEVELOPING OVER THE  
WINDWARD PASSAGE, JAMAICA, AND EASTERN CUBA MOSTLY RELATED TO  
THE TROPICAL WAVE. ANOTHER TROPICAL WAVE IS EXPECTED TO ENTER  
THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN ON TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY. THIS  
WAVE WILL BE ACCOMPANIED BY SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS,  
SOME OF WHICH MAY CONTAIN GUSTY WINDS. BROAD ANTICYCLONIC FLOW  
ALOFT COVERS THE EASTERN TWO-THIRDS OF THE CARIBBEAN.  
   
..HISPANIOLA
 
 
UPPER-LEVEL WESTERLY WINDS ARE ADVECTING DEEP LEVEL MOISTURE  
OVER THE ISLAND AND SURROUNDING WATERS EARLY THIS AFTERNOON.  
EXPECT SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THE  
NEXT 24 HOURS.  
 
ATLANTIC OCEAN...  
 
BROAD ANTICYCLONIC ALOFT COVERS THE ATLANTIC WEST OF ABOUT 65W.  
A WELL-DEFINED MIDDLE/UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC CIRCULATION IS  
LOCATED IN THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC NEAR 27N56W AND IS NEARLY  
STATIONARY. THE CIRCULATION IS ABOUT 12 DEGREES IN DIAMETER AND  
IS FORECAST TO DRIFT NORTH AND GRADUALLY WEAKEN. MOVING  
DOWNSTREAM, ANOTHER MIDDLE/UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC CIRCULATION IS  
CENTERED NEAR 29N29W AND IS MOVING SLOWLY WEST. A TROUGH  
EXTENDS FROM THE CIRCULATION SOUTHWEST TO NEAR 12N36W. A  
STATIONARY FRONT EXTENDS THROUGH 32N79W TO JUST SOUTH OF  
JACKSONVILLE, FLORIDA. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE  
LOCATED NORTH OF 29N BETWEEN 72W AND 80W AND ARE MOVING EAST.  
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE COVERS THE AREA NORTH OF 18N BETWEEN 20W  
AND 70W.  
 
FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT  
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE  
 

 
 
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