123
AXNT20 KNHC 281553
TWDAT
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1815 UTC TUE APR 28 2026
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA, CENTRAL AMERICA
GULF OF AMERICA, CARIBBEAN SEA, NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH
AMERICA, AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 31N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY, WEATHER OBSERVATIONS, RADAR AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.
BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1530 UTC.
..MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ
THE MONSOON TROUGH ENTERS THE ATLANTIC NEAR 10N14W AND CONTINUES
SOUTH-SOUTHWESTWARD TO 01N23W. THE ITCZ CONTINUES FROM THAT POINT
TO THE COAST OF BRAZIL NEAR 03S40W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION
PREVAILS WITHIN 200 NM ON EITHER SIDE OF THE ITCZ.
..GULF OF AMERICA
A WEAK PRESSURE GRADIENT PREVAILS ACROSS THE BASIN, WHILE A
TROUGH EXTENDS ACROSS THE BAY OF CAMPECHE. THE PRESSURE GRADIENT
BETWEEN THESE TWO FEATURES IS ALLOWING FOR MODERATE TO FRESH EAST
WINDS WEST OF 90W ALONG WITH 3 TO 6 FT SEAS. GENTLE TO MODERATE
WINDS ARE EAST OF 90W ALONG WITH SEAS OF 2 TO 4 FT.
FOR THE FORECAST, THE PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL CONTINUE TO SUPPORT
MODERATE TO FRESH SOUTHEAST WINDS AND MODERATE SEAS OVER THE
WESTERN HALF OF THE GULF, AND GENTLE TO MODERATE WINDS WITH SLIGHT
TO MODERATE SEAS OVER THE EASTERN PART OF THE BASIN THROUGH WED
MORNING. ELSEWHERE, A DIURNAL TROUGH WILL PULSE FRESH TO STRONG
WINDS OFF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA THIS EVENING, THEN AT MOSTLY FRESH
SPEEDS THROUGH FRI NIGHT. A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL BRUSH THE
NORTHERN PORTION OF THE NE GULF THU THROUGH EARLY FRI. A STRONG
COLD FRONT WILL EMERGE OFF THE TEXAS COAST LATE FRI NIGHT, THEN
REACH FROM NORTHERN FLORIDA TO THE BAY OF CAMPECHE BY LATE ON SAT.
THIS FRONT WILL BE FOLLOWED BY FRESH TO STRONG NORTH TO NORTHEAST
WINDS, WITH NEAR GALE WINDS POSSIBLE OVER THE WEST-CENTRAL AND SW
GULF SECTIONS. SEAS ARE FORECAST TO BUILD TO 12 FT WITH THESE
WINDS SAT.
..CARIBBEAN SEA
BROAD UPPER-LEVEL TROUGHING, AS SEEN IN WATER VAPOR IMAGERY, IS
SUPPORTING SCATTERED SHOWERS ACROSS THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN. A WEAK
PRESSURE PATTERN ACROSS THE BASIN IS KEEPING MODERATE TO FRESH
TRADES SOUTH OF 15N AND EAST OF 75W, AS WELL AS IN THE GULF OF
HONDURAS. WINDS ARE MAINLY LIGHT TO GENTLE ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF
THE BASIN. SLIGHT SEAS PREVAIL BETWEEN 68W AND 85W, AND MODERATE
SEAS ARE ELSEWHERE.
FOR THE FORECAST, PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL CONTINUE TO SUPPORT
MODERATE TO FRESH WIND SPEEDS OVER THE EASTERN AND CENTRAL
CARIBBEAN THROUGH THU, REACHING LOCALLY STRONG AT TIMES. IN THE
GULF OF HONDURAS, MODERATE TO FRESH EAST WINDS AND MODERATE SEAS
ARE EXPECTED THROUGH FRI, THEN INCREASING TO FRESH TO STRONG
SPEEDS THROUGH SAT NIGHT.
..ATLANTIC OCEAN
A COLD FRONT IS ANALYZED FROM 31N64W TO 27N78W. A PRE-FRONTAL
TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 31N59W TO 26N65W. FRESH NORTHEAST TO EAST
WINDS ARE NORTHWEST OF THE FRONT ALONG WITH SEAS OF 5 TO 7 FT.
LATEST SCATTEROMETER DATA INDICATES MODERATE TO FRESH SOUTHEAST
TO SOUTH WINDS EAST OF THE PRE-FRONTAL TROUGH NORTH OF 25N AND
EAST TO 50W. SEAS WITH THESE WINDS ARE 5 TO 7 FT. SCATTERED
MODERATE CONVECTION IS NOTED EAST OF THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY AND
TROUGH TO NEAR 58W AND NORTH OF 27N. FARTHER EAST, A 1015 MB LOW
IS NEAR 30N29W, WITH A COLD FRONT EXTENDING FROM THE LOW TO
22N42W, WHERE A TROUGH CONTINUES TO 24N53W. SURFACE RIDGING
PREVAILS ELSEWHERE. GENTLE TO MODERATE NORTHWEST WINDS ARE WEST
OF THE FRONT TO NEAR 38W. SEAS WITH THESE WINDS ARE 5 TO 7 FT IN
NORTHWEST SWELL.
FOR THE FORECAST WEST OF 55W, THE COLD FRONT EXTENDING FROM SE OF
BERMUDA TO JUST EAST OF THE NORTHERN BAHAMAS WILL REACH FROM NEAR
31N58W TO 25N63W AND WEAKENING TO NEAR 24N71W BY EARLY THIS
EVENING, THEN MOVE E OF 55W ON WED. ANOTHER COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED
TO MOVE OFFSHORE NORTHEAST FLORIDA ON THU, AND WEAKEN AS IT MOVES
ACROSS THE NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE AREA THROUGH FRI AFTERNOON
BEFORE PASSING E OF 55W ON SAT.
ERA
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