508
AXNT20 KNHC 061048
TWDAT
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1215 UTC WED AUG 6 2025
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA, CENTRAL AMERICA
GULF OF AMERICA, CARIBBEAN SEA, NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH
AMERICA, AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 31N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY, WEATHER OBSERVATIONS, RADAR AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.
BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1030 UTC.
..TROPICAL WAVES
A TROPICAL WAVE IS IN THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC EXTENDING FROM 03N TO
19N WITH AXIS NEAR 32W, MOVING WESTWARD AT 10 KT. SCATTERED
MODERATE CONVECTION IS NOTED FROM 04N TO 13N BETWEEN 25W AND 41W.
ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST TO BE CONDUCIVE FOR
GRADUAL DEVELOPMENT DURING THE NEXT FEW DAYS, AND A TROPICAL
DEPRESSION COULD FORM LATE THIS WEEK OR OVER THE WEEKEND AS THE
SYSTEM MOVES GENERALLY WEST-NORTHWESTWARD ACROSS THE CENTRAL
TROPICAL OR SUBTROPICAL ATLANTIC. THE DISTURBANCE HAS A LOW
CHANCE OF TROPICAL DEVELOPMENT IN THE NEXT 48 HOURS AND A MEDIUM
CHANGE IN 7 DAYS.
..MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ
THE MONSOON TROUGH REACHES THE ATLANTIC THROUGH THE COAST OF W
AFRICA NEAR 14N17W AND CONTINUES SOUTHWESTWARD TO 10N35W TO
07N52W. ASIDE FROM THE CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH THE TROPICAL
WAVE, SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 05N TO 14N BETWEEN 12W
AND 26W, AND FROM 03N TO 11N BETWEEN 42W AND 58W.
..GULF OF AMERICA
UPPER-LEVEL DIVERENT FLOW AND ABUNDANT MOISTURE OVER THE BAY OF
CAMPECHE CONTINUE TO SUPPORT HEAVY SHOWERS AND TSTMS OVER THE
WESTERN HALF OF THE BAY AND OFFSHORE VERACRUZ, MEXICO. STRONG TO
GUSTY WINDS AND ROUGH SEAS ARE LIKELY OVER THIS REGION. OVER THE
E BAY OF CAMPECHE, A SURFACE TROUGH IS SUPPORTING MODERATE TO
LOCALLY FRESH SE WINDS AND MODERATE SEAS. OTHERWISE, THE GULF
WATERS REMAIN UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF THE BERMUDA HIGH ASSOCIATED
RIDGE, WHICH IS SUPPORTING LIGHT TO GENTLE WINDS AND SLIGHT SEAS
OVER THE NW AND EASTERN HALF OF THE GULF.
FOR THE FORECAST, A FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL REMAIN NEARLY STATIONARY
ACROSS THE NE GULF REGION THROUGH TODAY WHILE DISSIPATING.
ELSEWHERE, A WEAK RIDGE WILL PREVAIL SUPPORTING MODERATE OR WEAKER
WINDS AND SLIGHT TO MODERATE SEAS. PULSING FRESH E WINDS ARE
LIKELY AT NIGHT NORTH AND WEST OF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA THROUGH
FRI NIGHT, AS A TROUGH DEVELOPS THERE DAILY AND DRIFTS WESTWARD.
..CARIBBEAN SEA
THE AZORES-BERMUDA HIGH ASSOCIATED RIDGE EXTENDS INTO THE
CARIBBEAN. THE GRADIENT OF PRESSURE BETWEEN THE RIDGE AND LOW
PRESSURE OVER NW COLOMBIA CONTINUE TO SUPPORT MODERATE TO FRESH
TRADES ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND SW CARIBBEAN, LOCALLY STRONG
OFFSHORE COLOMBIA WHERE SEAS ARE ROUGH TO 9 FT. MODERATE TO FRESH
E TO SE WINDS ARE IN THE GULF OF HONDURAS AND OFFSHORE BELIZE WITH
SEAS TO 6 FT. ELSEWHERE, MODERATE OR WEAKER WINDS AND SLIGHT TO
MODERATE SEAS ARE PREVALENT.
FOR THE FORECAST, HIGH PRESSURE NORTH OF BASIN WILL SUPPORT FRESH
TO STRONG WINDS AND ROUGH SEAS ACROSS THE SOUTH-CENTRAL CARIBBEAN
THROUGH TONIGHT. FRESH WINDS WILL ALSO PULSE ACROSS THE GULF OF
HONDURAS THROUGH THIS EVENING. THE HIGH PRESSURE WILL WEAKEN BY
THU, ALLOWING WINDS AND SEAS TO DIMINISH ACROSS THE BASIN, LEAVING
GENTLE BREEZES AND SLIGHT SEAS ACROSS THE NORTHWEST CARIBBEAN,
MODERATE TO FRESH TRADE WINDS AND MODERATE SEAS ELSEWHERE, AND
STRONG WINDS PULSING OFF COLOMBIA AT NIGHT.
..ATLANTIC OCEAN
THE SUBTROPICAL ATLANTIC WATERS REMAIN UNDER THE AZORES-BERMUDA
HIGH ASSOCIATED RIDGE, WHICH IS SUPPORTING MODERATE OR WEAKER
WINDS W OF 40W WITH SLIGTH TO MODERATE SEAS. EAST OF 40W, WINDS
ARE MODERATE TO FRESH FROM THE NE TO E, AND SEAS ARE MODERATE TO 7
FT. A WEAKNESS IN THE RIDGE IS ANALYZED AS A SURFACE TROUGH FROM
EASTERN CUBA TO THE NORTHERN BAHAMAS OFFSHORE WATERS. THE TROUGH
IS GENERATING SCATTERED SHOWERS AND TSTMS OVER THE GREAT BAHAMA
BANK, AND THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN BAHAMAS. IN THE TROPICS, THE
TROPICAL WAVE DESCRIBED IN THE SECTION ABOVE, IS GENERATING FRESH
TO STRONG WINDS AND ROUGH SEAS TO 8 FT. THIS WAVE HAS THE
POTENTIAL TO DEVELOP INTO A TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 7
DAYS.
FOR THE FORECAST WEST OF 55W, WEAK LOW PRESSURE BETWEEN THE
NORTHERN BAHAMAS AND BERMUDA WILL SUPPORT GENTLE TO MODERATE
BREEZES AND SLIGHT TO MODERATE SEAS ACROSS THE REGION, EXCEPT FOR
OCCASIONAL FRESH WINDS PULSING OFF HISPANIOLA.
RAMOS
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