493  
AXNT20 KNHC 162317  
TWDAT  
 
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION  
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL  
0015 UTC THU JUL 17 2025  
 
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA, CENTRAL AMERICA  
GULF OF AMERICA, CARIBBEAN SEA, NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH  
AMERICA, AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE  
EQUATOR TO 31N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE  
IMAGERY, WEATHER OBSERVATIONS, RADAR AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.  
 
BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH  
2310 UTC.  
   
..SPECIAL FEATURES  
 
NORTHEASTERN AND NORTH-CENTRAL GULF (AL93): SURFACE AND RADAR  
OBSERVATIONS INDICATE THAT A WESTWARD-MOVING BROAD AREA OF LOW  
PRESSURE IS LOCATED ALONG THE COAST OF THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE NEAR  
PANAMA CITY. THE ASSOCIATED SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY  
REMAINS DISORGANIZED AND LOCATED MAINLY SOUTH AND SOUTHWEST OF THE  
CENTER. THIS SYSTEM IS FORECAST TO CONTINUE MOVING WESTWARD  
ACROSS THE NORTHERN PORTION OF THE GULF THROUGH TONIGHT, REACHING  
THE COAST OF LOUISIANA BY THURSDAY. IF THIS SYSTEM MOVES FAR  
ENOUGH OFFSHORE, ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS OVER THE GULF APPEAR  
GENERALLY FAVORABLE FOR ADDITIONAL DEVELOPMENT, AND A TROPICAL  
DEPRESSION COULD FORM OVER THE NEXT DAY OR TWO BEFORE THE SYSTEM  
MOVES FULLY INLAND BY THE END OF THE WEEK.  
 
REGARDLESS OF DEVELOPMENT, HEAVY RAINFALL COULD PRODUCE LOCALIZED  
FLASH FLOODING OVER PORTIONS OF FLORIDA THROUGH THROUGH TODAY.  
HEAVY RAINFALL COULD ALSO CAUSE FLASH FLOODING FOR PORTIONS OF THE  
NORTH-CENTRAL GULF COAST BEGINNING LATE TODAY AND CONTINUING THROUGH  
FRIDAY. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION, PLEASE REFER TO PRODUCTS ISSUED  
BY THE WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER AND YOUR LOCAL NATIONAL WEATHER  
SERVICE OFFICE. THIS SYSTEM HAS A MEDIUM CHANCE OF TROPICAL  
CYCLONE DEVELOPMENT DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS AND ALSO DURING THE  
NEXT 7 DAYS. PLEASE REFER TO THE LATEST NHC TROPICAL WEATHER  
OUTLOOK AT WWW.HURRICANES.GOV FOR MORE DETAILS.  
   
..TROPICAL WAVES  
 
A FAR EASTERN ATLANTIC TROPICAL WAVE EXTENDS FROM 08N TO 20N WITH  
AXIS NEAR 22W, MOVING WESTWARD AT AROUND 5 KT. SCATTERED MODERATE  
CONVECTION IS OBSERVED FROM 08N TO 13N BETWEEN 19W AND 30W.  
 
A TROPICAL WAVE IS IN THE E CARIBBEAN SEA WITH AXIS NEAR 62W,  
SOUTH OF 20N, MOVING WEST AT 10 KT. THERE IS NO SIGNIFICANT  
CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH THIS WAVE.  
 
A TROPICAL WAVE IN IN THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN SEA WITH AXIS NEAR 74W,  
SOUTH OF 20N. THERE IS NO SIGNIFICANT CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH  
THIS WAVE.  
   
..MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ  
 
 
THE MONSOON TROUGH ENTERS THE ATLANTIC NEAR 14N17W AND CONTINUES  
SOUTHWESTWARD TO 10N30W TO 07N43W. THE ITCZ EXTENDS FROM 07N43W  
TO 08N55W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FOUND FROM 07N TO 11N  
BETWEEN 48W AND 61W.  
   
..GULF OF AMERICA  
 
PLEASE SEE THE SPECIAL FEATURES SECTION FOR MORE INFORMATION ON  
INVEST AL93 OVER THE NE GULF.  
 
A BROAD AREA OF LOW PRESSURE, INVEST AL93, IS CENTERED OVER THE NE  
GULF NEAR 30N86W, AND CONTINUES TO GENERATE NUMEROUS MODERATE TO  
STRONG CONVECTION OVER SOUTHERN ALABAMA AND MISSISSIPPI, AND SE  
LOUISIANA AS WELL AS ADJACENT OFFSHORE WATERS. SCATTERED MODERATE  
CONVECTION IS ELSEWHERE ACROSS THE E GULF AND NW GULF. A 1016 MB  
HIGH PRESSURE IS OVER THE CENTRAL BASIN NEAR 24N93W AND IS  
SUPPORTING MODERATE TO LOCALLY SOUTHERLIES OVER THE FAR NE AND NW  
GULF AND NE WINDS OF THE SAME SPEED OFF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA INTO  
THE BAY OF CAMPECHE. SEAS BASIN-WIDE ARE SLIGHT TO MODERATE PER  
ALTIMETER DATA.  
 
FOR THE FORECAST, INVEST AL93 IS FORECAST TO CONTINUE MOVING  
WESTWARD ACROSS THE NORTHERN PORTION OF THE GULF THROUGH TONIGHT,  
REACHING THE COAST OF LOUISIANA BY THURSDAY. IF THIS SYSTEM MOVES  
FAR ENOUGH OFFSHORE, ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS OVER THE GULF APPEAR  
GENERALLY FAVORABLE FOR ADDITIONAL DEVELOPMENT, AND A TROPICAL  
DEPRESSION COULD FORM OVER THE NEXT DAY OR TWO BEFORE THE SYSTEM  
MOVES FULLY INLAND BY THE END OF THE WEEK. REGARDLESS OF  
DEVELOPMENT, HEAVY SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED OVER THE  
NORTH-CENTRAL GULF THROUGH FRI, AND ERRATIC GUSTY WINDS AND ROUGH  
SEAS WILL BE POSSIBLE NEAR CONVECTION. THERE IS A MEDIUM CHANCE  
OF FORMATION WITHIN THE NEXT 48 HOURS.  
   
..CARIBBEAN SEA  
 
PLEASE SEE THE TROPICAL WAVE SECTION FOR MORE INFORMATION OF THE  
TROPICAL WAVES MOVING ACROSS THE BASIN.  
 
AN ELONGATED UPPER-LEVEL LOW EXTENDS FROM THE CENTRAL BAHAMAS  
SOUTHWARD ACROSS CUBA AND THE WINDWARD PASSAGE. THIS FEATURE IS  
PROVIDING LIFT TO SUPPORT SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION OVER CUBA  
AND ADJACENT NW CARIBBEAN WATERS. FAIR AND STABLE CONDITIONS  
GENERALLY PREVAIL ACROSS THE REST OF THE BASIN. AN ATLANTIC 1025  
MB HIGH PRESSURE IS CENTERED NEAR 32N61W, AND EXTENDS A RIDGE  
WESTWARD TO THE NORTH CAROLINA COAST. THE PRESSURE GRADIENT SOUTH  
OF THE RIDGE IS FORCING FRESH TO STRONG EASTERLY WINDS AND SEAS OF  
6-10 FT IN THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN SOUTH OF 16N, WITH THE STRONGEST  
WINDS AND HIGHEST SEAS OCCURRING OFF NORTHERN COLOMBIA. MODERATE  
TO FRESH EASTERLY WINDS AND MODERATE SEAS ARE PREVALENT IN THE  
EASTERN CARIBBEAN. MODERATE OR WEAKER WINDS AND SLIGHT SEAS ARE  
FOUND ELSEWHERE.  
 
FOR THE FORECAST, FRESH TO STRONG TRADE WINDS AND ROUGH SEAS WILL  
OCCUR OVER THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN, INCLUDING THROUGH THE WINDWARD  
PASSAGE, THROUGH THU AS A TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT PREVAILS BETWEEN  
HIGH PRESSURE IN THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC AND LOW PRESSURE OVER  
NORTHERN COLOMBIA. STRONG E WINDS AND ROUGH TO LOCALLY VERY ROUGH  
SEAS WILL CONTINUE AND EXPAND INTO THE WEST-CENTRAL BASIN THU  
NIGHT THROUGH SAT MORNING AS THE PRESSURE GRADIENT STRENGTHENS  
FURTHER. PERIODS OF NEAR-GALE FORCE WINDS WILL BE POSSIBLE  
OFFSHORE OF NORTHERN COLOMBIA AND IN THE GULF OF VENEZUELA EACH  
NIGHT AND EARLY MORNING INTO SAT. WINDS AND SEAS WILL DIMINISH  
SLIGHTLY SAT INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. ELSEWHERE, PULSING MODERATE TO  
FRESH E TO NE WINDS ARE EXPECTED IN THE GULF OF HONDURAS EACH  
AFTERNOON AND EVENING INTO THIS WEEKEND. OTHERWISE, MODERATE TO  
FRESH TRADE WINDS AND MODERATE SEAS WILL OCCUR IN THE EASTERN  
BASIN INTO NEXT WEEK.  
   
..ATLANTIC OCEAN  
 
PLEASE SEE THE TROPICAL WAVE SECTION FOR MORE INFORMATION OF THE  
TROPICAL WAVES MOVING ACROSS THE BASIN.  
 
A COLD FRONT EXTENDS FROM 31N31W SW TO 22N48W WITH NO CONVECTION  
ASSOCIATED WITH IT. THE REST OF THE BASIN IS DOMINATED BY AN  
EXPANSIVE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE CENTERED BY A 10125 MB BERMUDA HIGH  
AND A 1023 MB AZORES HIGH. THE PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN THIS  
RIDGE AND LOWER PRESSURES ASSOCIATED WITH THE PASSAGE OF A  
TROPICAL WAVE THROUGH THE WINDWARD PASSAGE IS SUSTAINING FRESH TO  
STRONG E WINDS AND ROUGH SEAS TO 8 FT N OF HISPANIOLA AND MODERATE  
TO FRESH EASTERLIES ELSEWHERE S OF 25N OVER THE SW N ATLANTIC  
WATERS. MODERATE OR WEAKER WINDS AND MODERATE SEAS ARE ELSEWHERE  
IN THE SUBTROPICS, EXCEPT BETWEEN THE NW COAST OF AFRICA AND THE  
CANARY ISLANDS WHERE FRESH TO STRONG NE WINDS AND ROUGH SEAS TO 9  
FT ARE PRESENT. OTHERWISE, MODERATE TO FRESH TRADES ARE ONGOING  
BETWEEN THE LESSER ANTILLES AND 40W.  
 
FOR THE FORECAST WEST OF 55W, MODERATE TO LOCALLY FRESH E TO SE  
WINDS ARE EXPECTED NORTH OF THE GREATER ANTILLES TO 27N AND OFF  
THE COAST OF FLORIDA WEST OF 75W THROUGH THU AS A STRONG PRESSURE  
GRADIENT PREVAILS BETWEEN HIGH PRESSURE IN THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC  
AND LOW PRESSURE OVER NORTHERN COLOMBIA. OCCASIONAL STRONG WINDS  
AND ROUGH SEAS ARE EXPECTED OFF THE COAST OF NORTHERN HISPANIOLA  
INTO EARLY SAT. WINDS WILL DIMINISH OFF THE COAST OF FLORIDA BY  
EARLY FRI, AND NORTH OF THE GREATER ANTILLES AND OVER THE BAHAMAS  
BY SAT MORNING. SOUTH OF 20N, MODERATE TO OCCASIONALLY FRESH TRADE  
WINDS AND MODERATE SEAS WILL OCCUR THROUGH THIS WEEKEND.  
 
 
RAMOS  
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