202  
AXNT20 KNHC 281743  
TWDAT  
 
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION  
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL  
143 PM EDT WED SEP 28 2016  
 
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA, CENTRAL AMERICA  
GULF OF MEXICO, CARIBBEAN SEA, NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH  
AMERICA, AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE  
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE  
IMAGERY, WEATHER OBSERVATIONS, RADAR AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.  
 
BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH  
1730 UTC.  
   
..SPECIAL FEATURES
 
 
THE TROPICAL WAVE AND SURFACE LOW DESCRIBED IN THIS SECTION IN THE  
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION HAS DEVELOPED INTO TROPICAL STORM MATTHEW AS  
OF 28/1500 UTC, CENTERED NEAR 13.4N 60.7W, OR ABOUT 31 NM  
SOUTHEAST OF ST. LUCIA AND ST. VINCENT. THE MINIMUM CENTRAL  
PRESSURE OF MATTHEW IS 1008 MB AND IS MOVING WEST AT 18 KT.  
MAXIMUM WINDS ARE 50 KT WITH GUSTS TO 60 KT. SCATTERED MODERATE TO  
STRONG CONVECTION IS OBSERVED FROM 11N-17N BETWEEN 55W-64W  
AFFECTING THE LESSER ANTILLES AND EASTERN CARIBBEAN WATERS. PLEASE  
REFER TO THE NHC FORECAST/ADVISORY UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS WTNT24  
KNHC/TCMAT4, OR VISIT THE NHC WEBSITE AT HTTP://HURRICANES.GOV FOR  
ADDITIONAL DETAILS.  
   
..TROPICAL WAVES
 
 
AN ATLANTIC OCEAN TROPICAL WAVE EXTENDS ITS AXIS FROM 18N28W TO  
05N28W, MOVING WESTWARD AT 10 TO 15 KT. ABUNDANT MOISTURE PREVAILS  
EAST OF THE WAVE'S AXIS AS NOTED IN TPW IMAGERY. THE PRECIPITATION  
OBSERVED IN THE VICINITY OF THIS WAVE IS RELATED TO THE MONSOON  
TROUGH AND PREVAILS EAST OF 27W.  
 
A TROPICAL WAVE EXTENDS ACROSS THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN WITH AXIS  
FROM 17N79W TO 08N79W, MOVING WESTWARD AT 15 KT. THE WAVE IS  
MOVING INTO THE AREA OF AN UPPER-LEVEL LOW CURRENTLY CENTERED NEAR  
16N82W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS OBSERVED IN THE AREA  
WHERE THE WAVE INTERACTS WITH THE MONSOON TROUGH MAINLY SOUTH OF  
11N BETWEEN 76W-81W.  
   
..ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH
 
 
THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS OVER AFRICA REACHING THE EAST ATLANTIC  
NEAR 10N15W TO 09N28W TO 07N34W TO 08N44W. SCATTERED MODERATE  
CONVECTION IS OBSERVED FROM 05N-11N BETWEEN 14W-26W. ISOLATED  
SHOWERS PREVAIL ALONG THE REMAINDER OF THE BOUNDARY.  
   
..DISCUSSION
 
 
GULF OF MEXICO...  
 
AN UPPER-LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC CIRCULATION IS CENTERED OVER EASTERN MEXICO  
NEAR 23N99W. UPPER-LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC WIND FLOW PREVAILS ACROSS  
MOST THE BASIN. AN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDS EAST OF 83W ACROSS  
THE FAR EAST GULF WATERS AND FLORIDA PENINSULA. AT THE SURFACE; A  
TROUGH EXTENDS OVER THE BAY OF CAMPECHE FROM 27N95W TO 20N95W.  
SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION PREVAILS ALONG THIS BOUNDARY  
AFFECTING THE WATERS WEST OF 93W. TO THE NORTHEAST; A COLD FRONT  
EXTENDS FROM 28N91W TO 30N86W. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE OBSERVED  
NORTH OF 26N AND EAST 89W. GENTLE TO MODERATE SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS  
PREVAIL ACROSS THE BASIN. EXPECT DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS FOR THE  
COLD FRONT TO CONTINUE MOVING EAST WITH SHOWERS. THE SURFACE  
TROUGH OVER THE BAY OF CAMPECHE WILL CONTINUE ENHANCING CONVECTION.  
 
CARIBBEAN SEA...  
 
A TROPICAL WAVE IS MOVING ACROSS THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN WHILE T.S  
MATTHEW IS WILL ENTER THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN WITHIN THE NEXT FEW  
HOURS. PLEASE REFER TO THE SECTION ABOVE FOR DETAILS. AN UPPER-  
LEVEL LOW IS CENTERED NEAR 16N82W ENHANCING CONVECTION FROM 11N-  
14N AND WEST OF 82W AFFECTING PORTIONS OF NICARAGUA. THE MONSOON  
TROUGH EXTENDS ALONG 10N BETWEEN 75W-80W WITH SCATTERED MODERATE  
CONVECTION. AN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 68W-75W SUPPORTING  
ISOLATED CONVECTION JUST NORTH OF 14N. SCATTERED MODERATE  
CONVECTION IS ENTERING THE FAR EAST CARIBBEAN WATERS DUE TO  
MATTHEW. SCATTEROMETER DATA DEPICTS MODERATE TO FRESH TRADES  
ACROSS THE BASIN. EXPECT DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS FOR THE TROPICAL  
WAVE AND MATTHEW TO MOVE WEST ACROSS THE BASIN.  
   
..HISPANIOLA
 
 
AN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 68W-75W ACROSS THE ISLAND SUPPORTING  
ISOLATED CONVECTION JUST NORTH OF 17N BETWEEN 69W-71W. EXPECT FOR  
THIS TROUGH TO WEAKEN WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS. ISOLATED SHOWERS  
ARE STILL EXPECTED.  
 
ATLANTIC OCEAN...  
 
T.S. MATTHEW HAS DEVELOPED IN THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC WHILE A TROPICAL WAVE  
EXTENDS ALONG 28W. PLEASE REFER TO THE SECTIONS ABOVE FOR  
DETAILS. A SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS ACROSS THE WEST ATLANTIC FROM  
25N79W TO 32N76W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS NORTH OF 26N  
BETWEEN 75W-79W. TO THE EAST; A WEAKENING STATIONARY FRONT EXTENDS  
OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC FROM 29N52W TO 31N44W. NO SIGNIFICANT  
CONVECTION IS OBSERVED WITH THIS FEATURE AT THIS TIME. THE  
REMAINDER OF THE BASIN IS UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF A SURFACE RIDGE  
ANCHORED BY A 1030 MB HIGH CENTERED NEAR 38N48W AND A 1032 MB HIGH  
NEAR 39N43W.  
 
FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT  
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE  
 

 
 
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