781  
AXNT20 KNHC 252354  
TWDAT  
 
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION  
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL  
805 PM EDT WED MAY 25 2016  
 
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA, CENTRAL AMERICA,  
GULF OF MEXICO, CARIBBEAN SEA, NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH  
AMERICA, AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE  
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE  
IMAGERY, WEATHER OBSERVATIONS, RADAR, AND METEOROLOGICAL  
ANALYSIS.  
 
BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH  
2345 UTC.  
   
..TROPICAL WAVES
 
 
 
A TROPICAL WAVE OVER AFRICA HAS AN AXIS THAT EXTENDS FROM 15N07W  
TO 05N11W IS MOVING WEST AT 10 TO 15 KT. THE WAVE COINCIDES WITH  
AN AMPLIFIED 700 MB TROUGH AND IS EMBEDDED WITHIN AN AREA OF  
MODERATE MOISTURE FROM THE SURFACE TO 700 MB BEHIND THE WAVE  
TROUGH AS INDICATED BY CIRA LAYER PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY.  
ISOLATED CONVECTION IS THE WAVE'S ENVIRONMENT.  
 
A TROPICAL WAVE OVER THE CENTRAL TROPICAL ATLANTIC EXTENDS ITS  
AXIS FROM 12N37W TO 02N40W. THE WAVE IS MOVING WEST AT ABOUT 15  
KT. THIS WAVE IS NOTED AT 700 MB AS A WEAK TROUGH AND IT IS  
EMBEDDED IN A MODERATE MOIST ENVIRONMENT FROM THE SURFACE TO 700  
MB AS INDICATED BY CIRA LAYER PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY. THE  
SAHARAN AIR LAYER IMAGERY SHOWS DRY AIR IN THE NORTHERN WAVE  
ENVIRONMENT THAT ALONG WITH STRONG DEEP LAYER WIND SHEAR IT IS  
INHIBITING CONVECTION N OF 07N. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS  
FROM 01N TO 07N BETWEEN 36W AND 41W.  
 
A TROPICAL WAVE EXTENDS ALONG 63W AND SOUTH OF 12N TO INLAND  
OVER EASTERN VENEZUELA MOVING WEST AT AROUND 10 TO 15 KT. THE  
WAVE COINCIDES WITH A 700 MB TROUGH AND IS EMBEDDED IN AN AREA  
OF LOW TO MODERATE MOISTURE. ISOLATED CONVECTION PREVAILS ACROSS  
THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE WAVE MAINLY SOUTH OF 06N BETWEEN 58W  
AND 64W.  
 
A TROPICAL WAVE EXTENDS ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST CARIBBEAN WITH AXIS  
FROM 17N78W TO 06N78W. THIS WAVE IS MOVING WEST AT ABOUT 5 TO 10  
KT. ABUNDANT MOISTURE PREVAILS IN THE WAVE'S ENVIRONMENT AND  
WITH THE SUPPORT OF AN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH CURRENTLY ACROSS THE  
WEST CARIBBEAN, SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS  
ARE OBSERVED S OF 16N BETWEEN 72W AND 82W.  
   
..ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH
 
 
 
THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS OVER WESTERN AFRICA REACHING THE EAST  
TROPICAL ATLANTIC NEAR 09N13W TO 06N20W WHERE THE ITCZ BEGINS TO  
E OF A TROPICAL WAVE NEAR 04N35W. THE ITCZ THEN RESUMES WEST OF  
THE WAVE NEAR 03N40W TO SOUTH AMERICA NEAR 03N51W.  
SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 2N TO 08N BETWEEN 30W AND  
36W.  
   
..DISCUSSION
 
 
GULF OF MEXICO...  
 
A SURFACE RIDGE EXTENDS FROM THE WEST ATLANTIC SW ACROSS FLORIDA  
AND THEN REACHING THE GULF WATERS. AT UPPER LEVELS, A RIDGE  
EXTENDS ACROSS MOST OF THE BASIN EXCEPT EAST OF 86W WHERE THE  
EASTERN PORTION OF AN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH PREVAILS. SCATTEROMETER  
DATA DEPICT A GENTLE TO MODERATE SE FLOW ACROSS THE BASIN.  
EXPECT A SIMILAR WEATHER PATTERN TO PREVAIL DURING THE NEXT 24  
HOURS. THE PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL STRENGTHEN OVER THE NORTHWEST  
GULF BY FRIDAY MORNING SUPPORTING AN INCREASE THE SOUTHEAST  
WINDS TO FRESH TO STRONG.  
 
CARIBBEAN SEA...  
 
THE MAIN FEATURE ACROSS THE BASIN IS A TROPICAL WAVE LOCATED IN  
THE SW CARIBBEAN. PLEASE SEE THE TROPICAL WAVES SECTION FOR  
DETAILS. SCATTERED LIGHT TO MODERATE CONVECTION IS OBSERVED OVER  
CUBA AND HISPANIOLA SUPPORTED BY AN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH WITH AXIS  
EXTENDING ALONG 80W. LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE TRANSPORTED BY THE  
MODERATE TO FRESH TRADES IS GENERATING ISOLATED CONVECTION THAT  
PREVAILS ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF THE BASIN. A STRONG PRESSURE  
GRADIENT BETWEEN THE LOW PRESSURE IN THE SW BASIN AND THE HIGH  
PRESSURE NE OF THE AREA IN THE ATLANTIC SUPPORTS FRESH TO STRONG  
WINDS S OF 18N BETWEEN 68W AND 79W. THESE WINDS ARE FORECAST TO  
DIMINISH DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS. EXPECT DURING THE NEXT 24  
HOURS FOR THE TROPICAL WAVE TO CONTINUE MOVING WEST WITH  
CONVECTION WHILE ANOTHER TROPICAL WAVE WILL ENTER THE BASIN.  
 
HISPANIOLA...  
 
SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE ISLAND  
THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS SUPPORTED BY AN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH  
WITH AXIS ALONG 80W. A SIMILAR PATTERN WILL CONTINUE DURING THE  
NEXT 24 HOURS.  
 
ATLANTIC OCEAN...  
 
A MIDDLE TO UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH PREVAILS OVER THE W ATLANTIC WITH  
BASE REACHING S TO THE SW CARIBBEAN. THIS FEATURE SUPPORTS  
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION ACROSS THE WEST  
ATLANTIC MAINLY W OF 70W. TO THE EAST, A SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS  
FROM 31N67W TO 25N72W. A 1017 MB SURFACE LOW IS CENTERED NEAR  
26N68W, WITH A SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDING FROM 29N67W, TO THE LOW,  
TO 24N70W. LATEST SATELLITE IMAGERY AND CURRENT OBSERVATIONS  
SHOW SOME SIGNS OF ORGANIZATION OF THIS LOW AND ENVIRONMENTAL  
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY BECOME MORE CONDUCIVE FOR  
DEVELOPMENT. FOR FUTURE INFORMATION CHANCES, PLEASE REFER TO THE  
SPECIAL TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK PRODUCT UNDER AWIPS HEADER  
TWOAT AND WMO HEADER ABNT20 KNHC. A TROPICAL WAVE EXTENDS ACROSS  
THE SOUTH-CENTRAL ATLANTIC ALONG 38W. PLEASE SEE THE TROPICAL  
WAVE SECTION FOR MORE DETAILS. THE REMAINDER OF THE BASIN IS  
DOMINATED BY A SURFACE RIDGE ANCHORED BY A 1030 MB HIGH CENTERED  
NEAR 36N49W. EXPECT DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS FOR THE LOW IN THE  
WEST ATLANTIC TO MOVE NW WITH CONVECTION.  
 
FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT  
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE  
 

 
 
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