832  
AXNT20 KNHC 230001  
TWDAT  
 
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION  
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL  
646 PM EST SUN JAN 22 2017  
 
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA, CENTRAL AMERICA  
GULF OF MEXICO, CARIBBEAN SEA, NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH  
AMERICA, AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE  
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE  
IMAGERY, WEATHER OBSERVATIONS, RADAR AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.  
 
BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH  
2300 UTC.  
   
..SPECIAL FEATURES
 
 
   
..GULF OF MEXICO GALE WARNING
 
 
A STRONG COLD FRONT IS CROSSING THE EASTERN GULF OF MEXICO THIS  
EVENING. GALE FORCE WINDS TO 35 KT ARE OCCURRING NORTH OF 25N  
EAST OF THE FRONT WITH SEAS TO 13 FT. GALE FORCE WINDS TO 40 KT  
ARE OCCURRING NORTH OF 23N WEST OF THE FRONT WITH SEAS BUILDING TO  
19 FT. FOR MORE INFORMATION, PLEASE REFER TO THE LATEST HIGH SEAS  
FORECAST UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIAHSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC.  
   
..ATLANTIC GALE WARNING
 
 
THE SAME COLD FRONT NOTED ABOVE WILL SWEEP EASTWARD INTO THE  
SOUTHWEST ATLANTIC WITH SOUTHWEST WINDS INCREASING TO 30-35 KT  
NORTH OF 29N WEST OF 77W THIS EVENING AND SEAS BUILDING TO 16 FT.  
THESE CONDITIONS WILL SPREAD EAST AHEAD OF THE FRONT FOR THE NEXT  
48 HOURS WITH WINDS INCREASING TO 30 TO 40 KT BY MONDAY AFTERNOON  
NORTH OF 23.5N WITHIN 150 NM EAST OF THE FRONT. PLEASE REFER TO  
THE LATEST HIGH SEAS FORECAST UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS  
MIAHSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS.  
   
..ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH
 
 
THE MONSOON TROUGH PASSES ACROSS THE COAST OF AFRICA NEAR 05N09W  
TO 04N18W. THE ITCZ BEGINS FROM THAT POINT AND EXTENDS TO 00N27W  
TO 03S35W. ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION IS SOUTH OF 06N BETWEEN  
26W AND 44W.  
   
..DISCUSSION
 
 
   
..THE GULF OF MEXICO
 
 
A VIGOROUS UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE SOUTHERN UNITED STATES  
SUPPORTS A STRONG COLD FRONT THAT AS OF 2100 UTC EXTENDED FROM  
31N84W TO 18N94W. A SQUALL LINE IS JUST AHEAD OF THE FRONT NORTH  
OF 27N. GALE FORCE WINDS ARE OCCURRING BOTH AHEAD OF AND BEHIND  
THE FRONT MAINLY NORTH OF 23N OVER THE GULF BASIN THIS EVENING.  
PLEASE REFER TO THE SPECIAL FEATURES SECTION FOR MORE DETAILS. THE  
COLD FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE RAPIDLY SOUTHEASTWARD AND EXIT  
THE EASTERN GULF MONDAY MORNING. WINDS AND SEAS WILL GRADUALLY  
SUBSIDE BEGINNING MONDAY AFTERNOON.  
   
..THE CARIBBEAN SEA
 
 
A 1016 MB SURFACE HIGH IS CENTERED TO THE NORTH OF JAMAICA AND  
EXTENDS ACROSS MOST OF THE BASIN. THE TAIL END OF A SURFACE  
TROUGH, FORMERLY A STATIONARY FRONT, EXTENDS OVER THE VIRGIN  
ISLANDS WITH ISOLATED SHOWERS. THE LATEST SCATTEROMETER DATA  
INDICATES GENTLE TO MODERATE TRADES ACROSS THE BASIN EAST OF 78W,  
AND SOUTH OF 15N WEST OF 78W. FRESH TO STRONG SOUTHERLY WINDS ARE  
NORTH OF 15N WEST OF 78W, AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT OVER  
THE GULF OF MEXICO. THE COLD FRONT WILL ENTER THE NORTHWESTERN  
CARIBBEAN LATE TONIGHT AND REACH FROM EASTERN CUBA TO THE  
HONDURAS/NICARAGUA BORDER BY MONDAY EVENING. STRONG NORTHWEST  
WINDS WILL OCCUR NORTH OF THE FRONT.  
   
..HISPANIOLA
 
 
DRY AIR IN SUBSIDENCE PREVAILS OVER ISLAND AT THIS TIME.  
THESE CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH MONDAY MORNING. A COLD FRONT  
APPROACHING FROM THE NORTHWEST WILL BRING INCREASING SOUTHERLY  
WINDS MONDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH TUESDAY, WITH SHOWERS POSSIBLE  
TUESDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT AS THE FRONT CROSSES THE ISLAND.  
   
..THE ATLANTIC OCEAN
 
 
A 1016 MB SURFACE HIGH PREVAILS ACROSS THE WEST ATLANTIC CENTERED  
NEAR 25N65W. A STRONG COLD FRONT IS APPROACHING THE SOUTHEASTERN  
UNITED STATES SUPPORTING CLUSTERS OF THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE ATLC  
WATERS NORTH OF 29N WEST OF 76W WITH STRONG TO NEAR GALE SOUTHWESTERLY  
WINDS. A STATIONARY FRONT EXTENDS FROM 31N43W TO 24N50W, THEN  
TRANSITIONS TO A SURFACE TROUGH TO 18N64W. SCATTERED MODERATE  
CONVECTION IS NORTH OF 24N BETWEEN 37W AND 45W. A 1018 MB AREA OF  
HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED NEAR 33N23W DOMINATES THE EASTERN ATLC.  
OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS THUNDERSTORMS AND WINDS WILL INCREASE OVER  
THE FLORIDA OFFSHORE WATERS AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING COLD FRONT  
WITH GALE FORCE WINDS DEVELOPING THIS EVENING. PLEASE SEE THE  
SPECIAL FEATURES SECTION FOR MORE DETAILS REGARDING THIS GALE.  
 
FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT  
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE  
 

 
 
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