638
AXNT20 KNHC 061647
TWDAT
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1815 UTC TUE MAY 6 2025
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA, CENTRAL AMERICA
GULF OF AMERICA, CARIBBEAN SEA, NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH
AMERICA, AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 31N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY, WEATHER OBSERVATIONS, RADAR AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.
BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1646 UTC.
..MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ
THE MONSOON TROUGH AXIS ENTERS THE ATLANTIC NEAR THE COAST OF
GUINEA AT 10N14W AND EXTENDS SOUTHWESTWARD TO 04N27W. THE ITCZ
EXTENDS FROM 04N27W TO NEAR 04N50.5W. WIDELY SCATTERED TO
NUMEROUS MODERATE CONVECTION IS NOTED FROM 00N TO 09N EAST OF 30W.
..GULF OF AMERICA
A FORMING STATIONARY FRONT EXTENDS FROM THE FLORIDA BIG BEND,
TO EASTERN NEW ORLEANS. THE PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN HIGH
PRESSURE OVER THE SE UNITED STATES AND LOW PRESSURE OVER MEXICO IS
SUPPORTING FRESH TO STRONG E TO SE WINDS WEST OF 90W, AND GENTLE
TO MODERATE E TO SE WINDS ELSEWHERE. SEAS ARE 3 TO 6 FT WEST OF
90W, AND 4 FT OR LESS ELSEWHERE. NUMEROUS MODERATE CONVECTION IS
DEPICTED FROM 27N TO APALACHICOLA, FL BETWEEN 83.5W AND 86.5W IN
ASSOCIATION WITH THE AFOREMENTIONED FRONTAL BOUNDARY.
FOR THE FORECAST, WEAK BOUNDARY ACROSS THE NORTHERN ZONES WILL
WASH OUT TODAY. THE PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN HIGH PRESSURE OVER
THE SE UNITED STATES AND LOW PRESSURE OVER MEXICO WILL SUPPORT
FRESH TO LOCALLY STRONG WINDS OVER THE SW HALF OF THE BASIN.
GENTLE TO MODERATE WINDS WILL PREVAIL ELSEWHERE. WINDS WILL WEAKEN
ACROSS THE BASIN THU AS THE NEXT FRONT APPROACHES. THE FRONT WILL
REACH ACROSS THE WESTERN ZONES THU NIGHT, FROM THE WESTERN
FLORIDA PANHANDLE TO VERACRUZ, MEXICO BY EARLY FRI, THEN FROM THE
CENTRAL FLORIDA PANHANDLE TO THE EASTERN BAY OF CAMPECHE BY EARLY
SAT. SMOKE FROM AGRICULTURAL FIRES IN SOUTHEASTERN MEXICO IS
CREATING HAZY CONDITIONS IN SOME SECTIONS OF THE WESTERN GULF,
WITH THE LOWEST REPORTED VISIBILITY NEAR THE SW GULF COAST.
..CARIBBEAN SEA
A WEAK PRESSURE GRADIENT PREVAILS BETWEEN THE BERMUDA-AZORES HIGH
NORTH OF THE CARIBBEAN AND LOWER PRESSURES ACROSS CENTRAL AMERICA
AND COLOMBIA. THIS CONTINUES TO SUPPORT GENTLE TO MODERATE TRADE
WINDS ACROSS MOST OF THE CARIBBEAN, EXCEPT FOR LOCALIZED FRESH
WINDS NEAR THE GULF OF HONDURAS AND NEAR THE WINDWARD PASSAGE.
SEAS ARE 2 TO 4 FT ACROSS THE BASIN, EXCEPT 1 TO 3 FT IN THE LEE
OF CUBA. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE SEEN ACROSS HISPANIOLA AND PUERTO
RICO ADJACENT WATERS, AS WELL AS OFFSHORE NW COLOMBIA.
FOR THE FORECAST, MODERATE TO FRESH EAST TO SOUTHEAST WINDS WILL
PULSE NORTH OF HONDURAS, INCREASING TO FRESH TO STRONG SPEEDS
NIGHTLY TONIGHT THROUGH FRI NIGHT. UNSETTLED WEATHER IS EXPECTED
TO CONTINUE OVER THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN WELL INTO THE WEEK. WINDS
WILL PULSE TO FRESH NIGHTLY NEAR THE WINDWARD PASSAGE. GENTLE TO
MODERATE TRADES AND SLIGHT TO MODERATE SEAS ARE EXPECTED OVER THE
REMAINDER OF THE BASIN THROUGH SAT, INCLUDING IN THE TROPICAL N
ATLANTIC. WINDS WILL START TO INCREASE OFF COLOMBIA FRI NIGHT
THROUGH THE UPCOMING WEEKEND AS THE PRESSURE GRADIENT TIGHTENS.
..ATLANTIC OCEAN
THE PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN A 1015 MB LOW CENTERED NEAR 26N64W
WITH ASSOCIATED TROUGH AND HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER THE CENTRAL
ATLANTIC IS SUPPORTING FRESH TO LOCALLY STRONG EAST WINDS AND
MODERATE TO ROUGH SEAS NORTH AND NORTHEAST OF THE LOW. SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ASSOCIATED WITH THIS LOW/TROUGH
COVERS THE AREA N OF 22N BETWEEN 53W AND 64W. FARTHER WEST, A
FORMING STATIONARY FRONT IS ALONG AND JUST OFFSHORE OF THE COAST
OF THE SE UNITED STATES. THIS BOUNDARY IS SUPPORTING SIMILAR
SHOWER ACTIVITY ACROSS THE OFFSHORE WATERS NORTH OF 29N AND
BETWEEN 78W AND THE BOUNDARY. OTHERWISE, A COLD FRONT EXTENDS FROM
31N22W TO THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC NEAR 25N42W. EXCEPT FOR THE WINDS
AND ROUGH SEAS TO 10 FT ASSOCIATED WITH THE LOW PRESSURE, WINDS
ARE MODERATE OR WEAKER ELSEWHERE, WHIT MODERATE SEAS.
FOR THE FORECAST WEST OF 55W, THE PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN A
1015 MB LOW CENTERED NEAR 26N64W WITH ASSOCIATED TROUGH AND HIGH
PRESSURE CENTERED OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC IS SUPPORTING FRESH TO
LOCALLY STRONG NORTHEAST WINDS AND MODERATE TO ROUGH SEAS NORTH
AND NORTHEAST OF THE LOW. THESE CONDITIONS WILL GRADUALLY SHIFT
WESTWARD THROUGH MID- WEEK AS THE LOW AND TROUGH DRIFT WESTWARD.
WINDS AND SEAS WILL START TO DECREASE MID- WEEK AS THE LOW AND
TROUGH START TO WEAKEN. A STATIONARY FRONT ALONG AND JUST OFFSHORE
THE SOUTHEASTERN U.S. COAST WILL GRADUALLY LIFT BACK NORTHWEST AS
WARM FRONT THROUGH MID-WEEK, THEN MAY SLOWLY PUSH OFFSHORE AGAIN
AT THE END OF THE WEEK.
KRV
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