680  
AXNT20 KNHC 211726  
TWDAT  
 
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION  
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL  
1225 PM EST SUN JAN 21 2018  
 
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA, CENTRAL AMERICA  
GULF OF MEXICO, CARIBBEAN SEA, NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH  
AMERICA, AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE  
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE  
IMAGERY, WEATHER OBSERVATIONS, RADAR AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.  
 
BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH  
1715 UTC.  
   
..MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ
 
 
 
THE AFRICAN MONSOON TROUGH ENTERS THE ATLANTIC OCEAN NEAR 04N08W  
AND CONTINUES TO 01N22W. THE ITCZ BEGINS NEAR 01N22W AND EXTENDS  
TO 01N37W TO 02N50W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS WITHIN 175  
NM N OF THE ITCZ. ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 210 NM S OF THE ITCZ.  
   
..DISCUSSION
 
 
   
..GULF OF MEXICO
 
 
RIDGING EXTENDS ACROSS THE SW N ATLANTIC WATERS, ACROSS THE  
FLORIDA PENINSULA AND INTO THE GULF. MODERATE TO FRESH SOUTHEAST  
RETURN FLOW IS OBSERVED OVER THE NORTHWEST GULF BETWEEN THE RIDGE  
AND LOWER PRESSURE OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS. FRESH EASTERLIES ARE  
ALSO NOTED OVER PORTIONS OF THE STRAITS OF FLORIDA. MODERATE EAST  
TO SOUTHEAST WINDS PERSIST ELSEWHERE. A MID TO UPPER LEVEL SHORT-  
WAVE TROUGH OVER THE SE CONUS EXTENDING ACROSS THE E GULF ALONG  
WITH THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF A RIDGE OVER THE CARIBBEAN CONTINUE  
TO SUPPORT DIFFLUENT FLOW OVER THE NW CARIBBEAN AND INTO PORTIONS  
OF THE SE GULF. THIS ENVIRONMENT ALOFT ALONG WITH SHALLOW  
MOISTURE IS SUPPORTING ISOLATED SHOWERS IN THE FLORIDA STRAITS.  
DENSE FOG CONTINUE TO BE REPORTED IN THE NW BASIN N OF 25N W OF  
91W. CAUTION MUST BE EXERCISED TRANSITING IN THIS AREA. MODERATE  
TO FRESH SE WINDS WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE WESTERN GULF THROUGH  
TONIGHT AHEAD OF THE NEXT COLD FRONT TO MOVE SOUTHEAST OFF THE  
TEXAS COAST BEFORE SUNRISE ON MON. THE COLD FRONT WILL EXTEND  
FROM DIXIE, FLORIDA SW TO THE EASTERN BAY OF CAMPECHE TUE MORNING,  
AND FROM THE STRAITS OF FLORIDA TO THE YUCATAN PENINSULA  
WEDNESDAY MORNING. FRESH TO STRONG NORTHERLY WINDS WILL ACCOMPANY  
THE PASSAGE OF THE FRONT.  
   
..CARIBBEAN SEA
 
 
CLUSTERS OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE ONGOING ACROSS THE  
NORTHWEST CARIBBEAN, RELATED TO DIFFLUENCE ALOFT AT THE BASE A  
SHARP MID TO UPPER TROUGH EXTENDING FROM THE SE CONUS INTO THE E  
GULF. FRESH TO NEAR GALE-FORCE TRADE WINDS ARE NOTED IN LATEST  
SCATTEROMETER DATA OVER MUCH OF THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN WITH THE  
STRONGEST WINDS BEING ALONG THE COAST OF COLOMBIA. SEAS ARE 10 TO  
14 FT OVER THE SOUTH CENTRAL CARIBBEAN WITH HIGHEST SEAS OFF  
COLOMBIA. MODERATE TO FRESH TRADES ARE NOTED IN THE EASTERN  
CARIBBEAN AND EAST OF THE WINDWARD AND LEEWARD ISLANDS. PERSISTENT  
RIDGING NORTH OF THE AREA WILL ALLOW STRONG TO NEAR GALE FORCE  
TRADES TO PULSE ALONG THE NORTHWEST COAST OF COLOMBIA THROUGH  
FRIDAY. THE TAIL OF A COLD FRONT IS FORECAST TO REACH THE NW  
CARIBBEAN WATERS BY LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT. FRESH TO STRONG  
NORTHEASTERLY WINDS WILL POPULATE THE NW CARIBBEAN WATERS THROUGH  
FRIDAY AS THE FRONT CONTINUES TO MOVE SE ACROSS THE SW N ATLC  
WATERS. MODERATE TO FRESH TRADES WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE TROPICAL  
ATLC WATERS E OF THE WINDWARDS THROUGH FRIDAY.  
   
..ATLANTIC OCEAN
 
 
RIDGING COVERS THE SW N ATLC WATERS BEING ANCHORED BY A 1026 MB  
HIGH PRESSURE AREA CENTERED NEAR 29N62W. DIFFLUENCE ALOFT ON THE  
EAST SIDE OF A MID TO UPPER TROUGH OVER THE E GULF OF MEXICO IS  
SUPPORTING ISOLATED SHOWERS OFF THE FLORIDA COAST AND ACROSS THE  
BAHAMAS TO 70W. FORMER COLD FRONT OVER THE CENTRAL ATLC WATERS HAS  
STALLED ALONG 30N40W TO 23N51W TO 21N58W WHERE IT STARTS TO  
DISSIPATE. LATEST SCATTEROMETER DATA SHOW FRESH TRADE WINDS  
ACROSS THE TURKS/CAICOS AND SOUTHERN BAHAMAS, ALONG THE  
DISSIPATING STATIONARY FRONT. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE NOTED N OF  
23N BETWEEN 30W AND 46W. A 1036 MB HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER SW  
PORTUGAL ADJACENT WATERS EXTENDS A RIDGE OVER THE EASTERN ATLC REGION  
NORTH OF 20N. FARTHER SOUTH, MODERATE TO FRESH TRADE PERSIST  
ACROSS THE DEEP TROPICS. THE HIGH PRESSURE WILL SHIFT EAST TO JUST  
SOUTHWEST OF BERMUDA THROUGH MON, THEN SHIFT NORTH OF BERMUDA MON  
NIGHT ALLOWING A COLD FRONT TO MOVE OFF THE NORTHEAST FLORIDA  
COAST TUE AFTERNOON. THE COLD FRONT WILL REACH FROM NEAR BERMUDA  
TO STRAITS OF FLORIDA WED NIGHT AND FROM 27N65W TO CENTRAL CUBA ON  
THU NIGHT. STRENGTHENING HIGH PRES IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT WILL  
SUPPORT STRONG NE WIND W OF 73W.  
 
FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT  
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE  
 

 
RAMOS  
 
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