791  
AXNT20 KNHC 201738  
TWDAT  
 
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION  
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL  
138 PM EDT FRI APR 20 2018  
 
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA, CENTRAL AMERICA  
GULF OF MEXICO, CARIBBEAN SEA, NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH  
AMERICA, AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE  
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE  
IMAGERY, WEATHER OBSERVATIONS, RADAR AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.  
 
BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH  
1740 UTC.  
   
..MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ
 
 
 
THE MONSOON TROUGH ALONG THE COAST OF AFRICA NEAR 09N13W EXTENDS  
SOUTHWESTWARD TO 00N22W. THE ITCZ CONTINUES WESTWARD FROM 00N22W  
TO THE COAST OF SOUTH AMERICA NEAR 01S45W. ISOLATED MODERATE  
CONVECTION IS FROM 01S-02N BETWEEN 30W-38W.  
   
..DISCUSSION
 
 
GULF OF MEXICO...  
 
A COLD FRONT EXTENDS FROM N FLORIDA NEAR 28N83W TO THE CENTRAL  
GULF OF MEXICO NEAR 26N90W, CONTINUING THEREAFTER AS A STATIONARY  
FRONT TO NE MEXICO NEAR 25N97W. THE FRONT IS ASSOCIATED WITH VERY  
LITTLE PRECIPITATION, BUT MAY SPARK SOME ISOLATED SHOWERS ALONG  
THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY THROUGH THE NIGHT TONIGHT. A SURFACE TROUGH  
IS LOCATED IN THE BAY OF CAMPECHE AND HAS SOME CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY  
ASSOCIATED WITH IT, WITHIN THE WESTERN HALF OF THE BAY.  
 
EXPECT THE FRONT TO BECOME STATIONARY BETWEEN THE FLORIDA KEYS  
AND NE MEXICO LATER THIS EVENING. VISIBILITY WILL REMAIN  
UNRESTRICTED ACROSS THE GULF. THE FRONT WILL DRIFT NORTH OVER THE  
WESTERN GULF AS A WARM FRONT BY LATER THIS EVENING. FRESH TO  
STRONG EASTERLY WINDS ARE EXPECTED OVER THE NORTHEASTERN GULF INTO  
SAT AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS NORTH OF THE AREA BEHIND THE FRONT.  
THE FRONT WILL WEAKEN ACROSS FLORIDA AND THE EASTERN GULF ON SAT,  
POSSIBLY RETURNING NORTHWARD AS A WARM FRONT ON SUNDAY, AHEAD OF  
ANOTHER COLD FRONT THAT WILL EMERGE OFF THE TEXAS COAST LATE SAT  
NIGHT/EARLY SUN MORNING. THIS SECOND COLD FRONT WILL REACH FROM  
THE MISSISSIPPI DELTA TO THE BAY OF CAMPECHE ON SUN NIGHT, FROM  
THE FLORIDA BIG BEND COASTLINE TO THE YUCATAN PENINSULA ON MON  
NIGHT, THEN DRIFT SOUTHEAST ON TUE AND MOVE SOUTHEAST OF THE GULF  
WATERS LATE WED.  
 
CARIBBEAN SEA...  
 
AN UPPER TROUGH OVER THE CARIBBEAN IS AIDING THE DEVELOPMENT OF  
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS OVER N  
COLOMBIA AND NW VENEZUELA, WITH FRESH TO STRONG NE TO E SURFACE  
WINDS PERSISTING OFF THEIR RESPECTIVE COASTS, ALONG WITH 10 TO 12  
FT SEAS. OTHERWISE, MODERATE WINDS AND SEAS ACCOMPANIED BY DRY  
CONDITIONS PERSIST ACROSS THE BASIN.  
 
FOR THE FORECAST, HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN NORTH OF THE AREA  
WILL MAINTAIN FRESH TO LOCALLY STRONG TRADEWIND FLOW ALONG THE  
NORTH COAST OF SOUTH AMERICA AND CENTRAL CARIBBEAN SEA TODAY,  
THEN DIMINISH SOMEWHAT LATE THIS WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.  
NORTHEASTERLY SWELL WILL CONTINUE TO INCREASE EAST OF THE  
LEEWARDS THIS EVENING, THEN DECAY FROM WEST TO EAST THROUGH SUN.  
 
ATLANTIC OCEAN...  
 
A COLD FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE OFF THE EASTERN FLORIDA COAST  
TODAY AND REACH FROM NEAR BERMUDA TO SOUTH FLORIDA BY LATE TODAY,  
THEN STALL FROM 28N65W TO THE STRAITS OF FLORIDA BY LATE SAT.  
REMNANTS OF THE FRONT WILL LIFT NORTHWARD ON SUN AHEAD OF ANOTHER  
COLD FRONT THAT WILL MOVE EASTWARD ACROSS THE SOUTHEASTERN UNITED  
STATES LATE MON AND ENTER THE NORTHWEST WATERS BY LATE TUE.  
 
FARTHER EAST, A LARGE 1034 MB HIGH OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC NEAR  
34N37W IS PRODUCING MODERATE TO FRESH TRADE WINDS OVER THE DEEP  
TROPICS. LARGE LONG PERIOD NORTHERLY SWELL PERSISTS, WITH 10 TO 14  
FT SEAS COVERING THE REGION NORTH OF 20N EAST OF 50W, AND 8 TO 12  
FT SEAS PRESENT NORTH OF 12N AND EAST OF 55W.  
 
FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT  
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE  
 

 
MANOUGIAN  
 
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