005  
AXNT20 KNHC 080600  
TWDAT  
 
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION  
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL  
105 AM EST THU DEC 8 2016  
 
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA, CENTRAL AMERICA  
GULF OF MEXICO, CARIBBEAN SEA, NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH  
AMERICA, AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE  
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE  
IMAGERY, WEATHER OBSERVATIONS, RADAR AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.  
 
BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH  
0515 UTC.  
   
..SPECIAL FEATURES
 
 
   
..GALE-FORCE WINDS ARE FORECAST FOR THE GULF OF MEXICO
 
 
THE 12-HOUR FORECAST CONSISTS OF A COLD FRONT FROM 29N90W TO  
26.5N97.5W. EXPECT N-TO-NE WINDS 20 TO 30 KNOTS WITH FREQUENT  
GUSTS TO GALE-FORCE, AND SEA HEIGHTS LESS THAN 8 FEET, TO THE NW  
OF THE COLD FRONT. THE 18-HOUR FORECAST CONSISTS OF A COLD FRONT  
FROM 30N85W TO 26N96W TO 21N97.5W. EXPECT N-TO-NE GALE-FORCE  
WINDS AND SEA HEIGHTS REACHING 12 FEET TO THE NW OF THE COLD  
FRONT AND TO THE N OF 25N TO THE W OF 90W. PLEASE READ THE HIGH  
SEAS FORECAST...MIAHSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC...FOR MORE DETAILS.  
   
..GALE-FORCE WINDS ARE PRESENT IN THE EASTERN ATLANTIC OCEAN
 
 
PLEASE REFER TO THE METEO-FRANCE HIGH SEAS FORECAST, THAT IS  
LISTED UNDER THE FOLLOWING LINKS: MARINE...BULLETINS  
EXPERTISES...GRAND LARGE...METAREA II...OR ON THE WEBSITE:  
WWW.METEOFRANCE.COM/PREVISIONS-METEO-MARINE/BULLETIN/  
GRANDLARGE/METAREA2. GALE-FORCE WINDS ARE BEING FORECAST FOR THE  
AREA THAT IS CALLED IRVING. THIS IS FOR THE FORECAST THAT IS  
VALID UNTIL 09/0000 UTC.  
   
..THE ITCZ/THE MONSOON TROUGH
 
 
THE MONSOON TROUGH REACHES THE COASTAL BORDER SECTIONS OF SIERRA  
LEONE AND LIBERIA, TO 06N15W. THE ITCZ CONTINUES FROM 06N15W TO  
02N33W AND 04N42W. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION: ISOLATED MODERATE  
TO LOCALLY STRONG WITHIN 180 NM ON EITHER SIDE OF 11N58W  
06N47W 04N40W 03N09W 02N01W.  
   
..DISCUSSION
 
 
...FROM THE WESTERN ATLANTIC OCEAN INTO THE GULF OF MEXICO,  
INCLUDING THE REST OF THE GULF OF MEXICO...  
 
UPPER LEVEL SW WIND FLOW SPANS THE GULF OF MEXICO. A COLD FRONT  
PASSES THROUGH 32N60W IN THE ATLANTIC OCEAN, TO 29N70W AND  
26N77W NEAR THE NW BAHAMAS. THE FRONT BECOMES STATIONARY FROM  
THE NW BAHAMAS, ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PART OF FLORIDA, INTO THE  
SOUTH CENTRAL GULF OF MEXICO, AND 22N95W. A SECOND STATIONARY  
FRONT PASSES THROUGH THE FLORIDA BIG BEND, TO THE NORTH CENTRAL  
GULF OF MEXICO, BEYOND THE DEEP SOUTH OF TEXAS, AND CURVING  
NORTHWESTWARD INTO NORTHERN MEXICO. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION:  
ISOLATED MODERATE FROM 26N FROM 90W EASTWARD. RAINSHOWERS ARE  
POSSIBLE FROM 23N NORTHWARD FROM 90W WESTWARD, AND FROM 28N  
NORTHWARD FROM 90W EASTWARD.  
 
THE 30-HOUR FORECAST FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN SIDE OF  
MEXICO, FOR THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC OF SOUTHERN MEXICO, WILL  
CONSIST OF A GALE WARNING. PLEASE READ THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN  
HIGH SEAS FORECAST...MIAHSFEP2/FZPN03 KNHC...AND THE EASTERN  
PACIFIC OCEAN TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION...MIATWDEP/AXPZ20  
KNHC...FOR MORE DETAILS.  
 
...LOW LEVEL CLOUD CEILINGS AND WEATHER FOR THE OFFSHORE OIL  
PLATFORM SITES THAT ARE IN THE AREA WHOSE BOUNDARIES ARE FROM  
27N NORTHWARD AND FROM 88W WESTWARD...  
 
LIFR: NONE.  
 
IFR: KXIH.  
 
MVFR: KBQX, KHHV, KVBS, KVQT, KIKT, AND KVOA.  
 
LOW LEVEL CLOUD CEILINGS AND WEATHER...FOR THE COASTAL PLAINS OF  
THE U.S.A. FROM THE DEEP SOUTH OF TEXAS TO FLORIDA...  
 
TEXAS: MVFR IN HARLINGEN, WESLACO, EDINBURG, AND MCALLEN. IFR IN  
HEBBRONVILLE AND FALFURRIAS. MVFR IN ALICE, AT THE NAS IN  
KINGSVILLE, ROBSTOWN. IFR IN THE CORPUS CHRISTI METROPOLITAN  
AREA. MVFR IN VICTORIA. IFR IN PORT LAVACA AND PALACIOS. MVFR IN  
BAY CITY AND IN ANGLETON/LAKE JACKSON. LIGHT RAIN AND IFR IN  
SUGAR LAND, AND AT THE HOUSTON HOBBY AIRPORT. IFR AND MIST IN  
PEARLAND. MVFR AND MIST AT THE ELLINGTON FIELD. IFR IN  
GALVESTON. MVFR AND MIST AT THE INTERCONTINENTAL AIRPORT.  
MVFR IN TOMBALL. LIGHT RAIN IN CONROE. MVFR IN HUNTSVILLE AND IN  
BEAUMONT/PORT ARTHUR. LOUISIANA: MVFR IN LAKE CHARLES,  
LAFAYETTE, PATTERSON, GALLIANO, AND AROUND LAKE PONTCHARTRAIN.  
MISSISSIPPI: MVFR FROM NATCHEZ AND HATTIESBURG SOUTHWARD.  
ALABAMA: NEAR MVFR, CEILINGS JUST HIGHER THAN 3000 FEET, FROM  
BIRMINGHAM TO GULF SHORES. FLORIDA: LIFR AT THE TAMPA EXECUTIVE  
AIRPORT.  
   
..THE CARIBBEAN SEA
 
 
AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WAS ALONG 20N60W TO 13N70W. UPPER LEVEL  
CYCLONIC WIND FLOW COVERS THE AREA FROM 18N SOUTHWARD BETWEEN  
70W AND CENTRAL AMERICA. UPPER LEVEL NE WIND FLOW COVERS THE  
AREA FROM HONDURAS NORTHWARD FROM 80W WESTWARD. UPPER LEVEL SW  
WIND FLOW IS IN THE EXTREME NW CORNER OF THE CARIBBEAN SEA.  
 
A SURFACE TROUGH IS ALONG 60W/61W FROM 17N SOUTHWARD. CONVECTIVE  
PRECIPITATION: ISOLATED MODERATE FROM VENEZUELA AND TRINIDAD  
TO 17N BETWEEN 58W AND 65W.  
 
RAINSHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE, ELSEWHERE, IN AREAS OF BROKEN LOW  
LEVEL CLOUDS, ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA.  
 
A SURFACE RIDGE EXTENDS FROM AN ATLANTIC OCEAN 1020 MB HIGH  
PRESSURE CENTER, THAT IS NEAR 25N61W, ACROSS THE BAHAMAS TO  
CUBA.  
 
THE MONSOON TROUGH IS ALONG 10N FROM NORTHERN COLOMBIA BEYOND  
BEYOND NW COSTA RICA, INTO THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN.  
CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION: SCATTERED STRONG FROM 10N TO 12N  
BETWEEN 78W AND 82W. RAINSHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE ELSEWHERE  
FROM 13N SOUTHWARD FROM 78W WESTWARD.  
 
THE 24-HOUR RAINFALL TOTAL IN INCHES FOR THE PERIOD ENDING AT  
08/0000 UTC...ACCORDING TO THE PAN AMERICAN TEMPERATURE AND  
PRECIPITATION TABLES...MIATPTPAN/SXCA01 KNHC...IS 0.06 IN  
CURACAO.  
   
..HISPANIOLA
 
 
UPPER LEVEL NE WIND FLOW IS MOVING ACROSS THE ISLAND.  
COMPARATIVELY DRIER AIR IN SUBSIDENCE IS APPARENT IN WATER VAPOR  
IMAGERY, ACROSS THE AREA. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION: RAINSHOWERS  
ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS HISPANIOLA, AND IN THE COASTAL WATERS AND  
COASTAL PLAINS, IN AREAS OF BROKEN LOW LEVEL TO MIDDLE LEVEL  
CLOUDS.  
 
SURFACE OBSERVATIONS...FOR PORT-AU-PRINCE IN HAITI: VFR/NO  
CEILING. FOR THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC: BARAHONA: VFR/NO CEILING.  
SANTO DOMINGO/LA ROMANA/PUNTA CANA: VFR/NO CEILING.  
SANTIAGO: MVFR. CEILING AT 1600 FEET. PUERTO PLATA: VFR/NO  
CEILING.  
 
THE GFS MODEL FORECAST FOR 250 MB SHOWS THAT AN ANTICYCLONIC  
CIRCULATION CENTER WILL BE IN THE NW CORNER OF THE CARIBBEAN SEA  
AND A CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER WILL BE IN THE SE CORNER OF  
THE CARIBBEAN SEA, MOVING TOWARD HISPANIOLA, AND REACHING  
HISPANIOLA AT THE END OF DAY ONE/THE BEGINNING OF DAY TWO.  
THE CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER WEAKENS EVENTUALLY, GIVING SW  
WIND FLOW TO HISPANIOLA. THE RIDGE THAT WAS IN THE NW CORNER OF  
THE CARIBBEAN SEA MOVES EASTWARD, TO THE SOUTH OF JAMAICA. THE  
GFS MODEL FORECAST FOR 500 MB SHOWS THAT AN E-TO-W ORIENTED  
ATLANTIC OCEAN RIDGE WILL BE JUST TO THE NORTH OF HISPANIOLA  
DURING THE NEXT TWO DAYS. THE WIND FLOW ACROSS HISPANIOLA WILL  
BE FROM THE E-TO-NE DURING DAY ONE, AND SE WIND FLOW DURING DAY  
TWO. THE GFS MODEL FORECAST FOR 700 MB SHOWS THAT AN E-TO-W  
ORIENTED ATLANTIC OCEAN RIDGE WILL BE JUST TO THE NORTH OF  
HISPANIOLA DURING THE NEXT TWO DAYS. EXPECT SE WIND FLOW, DURING  
THE NEXT TWO DAYS, ALONG WITH SOME POSSIBLE INVERTED TROUGHS.  
   
..THE REST OF THE ATLANTIC OCEAN
 
 
THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH THAT WAS SUPPORTING A COLD FRONT DURING  
THE LAST FEW DAYS HAS MOVED NORTHWARD, AND OUT OF THE AREA THAT  
IS COVERED BY THIS SUMMARY. A COLD FRONT PASSES THROUGH 32N32W  
TO 29N40W 28N44W AND 30N54W. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION:  
RAINSHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE FROM 22N NORTHWARD FROM 50W EASTWARD.  
 
A SURFACE RIDGE PASSES THROUGH 32N16W, TO JUST TO THE NW OF THE  
CANARY ISLANDS TO 26N22W, TO 24N42W 25N61W, ACROSS THE BAHAMAS,  
TO CUBA.  
 
FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT  
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE  
 

 
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