552  
AXNT20 KNHC 101006  
TWDAT  
 
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION  
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL  
1215 UTC THU JUL 10 2025  
 
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA, CENTRAL AMERICA  
GULF OF AMERICA, CARIBBEAN SEA, NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH  
AMERICA, AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE  
EQUATOR TO 31N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE  
IMAGERY, WEATHER OBSERVATIONS, RADAR AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.  
 
BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH  
1000 UTC.  
   
..TROPICAL WAVES
 
 
A TROPICAL WAVE IS ANALYZED NEAR 21W FROM 04N-19N, MOVING WEST AT  
AROUND 10 KT. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS ACTIVE FROM 07N-13N  
BETWEEN THE COAST OF AFRICA AND 25W.  
 
A TROPICAL WAVE IS ANALYZED NEAR 38W, FROM 05N-18N, MOVING WEST  
AT AROUND 15-20 KT. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE NOTED ALONG THE WAVE  
AXIS.  
 
A TROPICAL WAVE IS ANALYZED NEAR 66W FROM 20N TO NORTHERN  
VENEZUELA, MOVING WEST AT AROUND 10 KT. NO SIGNIFICANT CONVECTION  
IS NOTED WITH THIS WAVE.  
 
A TROPICAL WAVE IS ANALYZED NEAR 82W FROM 07-22N, AND IS MOVING  
WEST AT AROUND 10 KT. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS SEEN IN THE  
FAR SW CARIBBEAN, AND ALSO FROM 14-17N BETWEEN 80-85W.  
   
..MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ
 
 
 
THE MONSOON TROUGH ENTERS THE ATLANTIC NEAR 13N17W, THEN CONTINUES  
TO 07N41W. THE ITCZ EXTENDS FROM 07N41W TO 05N53W. OTHER THAN THE  
CONVECTION MENTIONED ABOVE IN THE TROPICAL WAVE SECTION, SCATTERED  
MODERATE CONVECTION IS OBSERVED FROM 06-09N BETWEEN 23-30W.  
   
..GULF OF AMERICA
 
 
A 1020 MB HIGH IS CENTERED OVER THE NORTH-CENTRAL GULF NEAR  
27N86W. A COUPLE OF SURFACE TROUGHS ARE ANALYZED OVER THE EAST  
COAST OF MEXICO, AND OVER THE BAY OF CAMPECHE. SCATTERED MODERATE  
CONVECTION IS NOTED NEAR THE BAY OF CAMPECHE TROUGH. THIS PATTERN  
OTHERWISE IS SUPPORTING GENTLE TO MODERATE BREEZES ACROSS THE  
GULF WITH SLIGHT SEAS, WITH THE EXCEPTION OF THE BAY OF CAMPECHE  
WHERE WINDS ARE MODERATE TO FRESH.  
 
FOR THE FORECAST, WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL PREVAIL ACROSS THE BASIN  
THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD. FRESH TO STRONG NORTHEAST TO EAST  
WINDS WILL PULSE ALONG AND JUST NORTH OF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA  
EACH AFTERNOON AND EVENING AS A TROUGH DEVELOPS INLAND DAILY AND  
SHIFTS WESTWARD OVER THE BAY OF CAMPECHE AT NIGHT.  
   
..CARIBBEAN SEA
 
 
REFER TO THE SECTION ABOVE FOR DETAILS ON CONVECTION ASSOCIATED  
WITH THE TROPICAL WAVES MOVING THROUGH THE BASIN.  
 
ASIDE FROM THE CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH TROPICAL WAVES,  
SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS ONGOING OVER COASTAL PORTIONS OF  
HISPANIOLA, CUBA, AND HONDURAS. A STRONG BERMUDA HIGH AND LOWER  
PRESSURE OVER THE SW CARIBBEAN CONTINUE TO GENERATE A TIGHT  
PRESSURE GRADIENT THAT IS RESULTING IN FRESH TO STRONG E WINDS IN  
THE CENTRAL TO SW CARIBBEAN WITH ROUGH SEAS. MODERATE TO FRESH  
TRADES AND MODERATE SEAS PREVAIL IN THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN, WHILE  
MODERATE OR LIGHTER WINDS ARE ELSEWHERE WITH SLIGHT SEAS.  
 
FOR THE FORECAST, THE PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN ATLANTIC HIGH PRESSURE  
AND RELATIVELY LOWER PRESSURE IN COLOMBIAN WILL CONTINUE TO  
SUPPORT PULSING FRESH TO STRONG TRADES AND ROUGH SEAS ACROSS THE  
SOUTH-CENTRAL CARIBBEAN THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD. FRESH EAST  
WINDS ARE EXPECTED IN THE GULF OF HONDURAS, MAINLY AT NIGHT,  
THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK. MODERATE TO FRESH WINDS AND MODERATE  
SEAS ARE EXPECTED IN THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN, WHILE GENTLE TO  
MODERATE WINDS AND SLIGHT TO MODERATE SEAS WILL PREVAIL ELSEWHERE.  
   
..ATLANTIC OCEAN
 
 
REFER TO THE SECTION ABOVE FOR DETAILS ON THE TROPICAL WAVES  
MOVING ACROSS THE BASIN.  
 
SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE ACTIVE ALONG A TROUGH OVER THE  
NORTHERN BAHAMAS. ELSEWHERE, THE ENTIRE SUBTROPICAL WATERS ARE  
UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF THE BERMUDA-AZORES HIGH, WHICH IS  
SUPPORTING MODERATE TO FRESH E WINDS FROM 10-25N BETWEEN 35-75W,  
EXCEPT FOR FRESH TO STRONG E WINDS AND ROUGH SEAS NORTH OF  
HISPANIOLA AND PUERTO RICO. MODERATE OR WEAKER WINDS PREVAIL  
ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF THE ATLANTIC WATERS. MODERATE SEAS PREVAIL  
ELSEWHERE ACROSS THE BASIN.  
 
FOR THE FORECAST WEST OF 55W, HIGH PRESSURE RIDGING WILL SHIFT  
SOUTHWARD TODAY, THEN BEGIN TO LIFT BACK N AFTERWARD. THE RELATED  
PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL SUPPORT GENTLE TO MODERATE WINDS, EXCEPT  
FOR FRESH TO STRONG EAST TO SOUTHEAST WINDS OFF THE NORTHERN COAST  
OF HISPANIOLA THROUGH SAT AND FRESH WINDS SUN AND MODERATE TO  
FRESH WINDS EARLY NEXT WEEK.  
 

 
ERA  
 
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