621  
AXNT20 KNHC 262311  
TWDAT  
 
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION  
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL  
611 PM EST SUN FEB 26 2017  
 
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA, CENTRAL AMERICA  
GULF OF MEXICO, CARIBBEAN SEA, NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH  
AMERICA, AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE  
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE  
IMAGERY, WEATHER OBSERVATIONS, RADAR AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.  
 
BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH  
2300 UTC.  
   
..SPECIAL FEATURES
 
 
A STRENGTHENED PRESSURE GRADIENT IS EXPECTED TO MATERIALIZE  
BEGINNING MONDAY NIGHT DURING THE LATE NIGHT AND EARLY MORNING  
HOURS OFF THE COAST OF COLOMBIA THE NEXT SEVERAL NIGHTS. NEAR GALE  
TO GALE FORCE E-NE WINDS ARE EXPECTED AS HIGH PRESSURE ANCHORS  
ITSELF TO THE N ACROSS THE SW NORTH ATLC WATERS FOR MUCH OF THE  
WEEK AHEAD. SEE LATEST NWS HIGH SEAS FORECAST UNDER AWIPS/WMO  
HEADERS MIAHSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS.  
   
..ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH
 
 
THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE AFRICAN COAST NEAR 11N15W TO  
09N17W TO 02N20W. THE INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE AXIS EXTENDS  
FROM 02N20W TO 01N23W TO 01N35W TO THE EQUATOR NEAR 37W. SCATTERED  
MODERATE AND ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS FROM 03N-09N BETWEEN  
THE PRIME MERIDIAN AND 10W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM  
01N-08N BETWEEN 10W-19W...AND S OF 03N BETWEEN 27W-41W. ISOLATED  
MODERATE CONVECTION IS S OF 06N BETWEEN 42W-52W.  
   
..DISCUSSION
 
 
GULF OF MEXICO...  
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY INDICATES MAINLY DRY AIR ALOFT WITHIN  
SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW OVER THE GULF BASIN THIS EVENING. AT THE  
SURFACE...RIDGING REMAINS IN CONTROL ACROSS THE BASIN AND EASTERN  
CONUS AS A 1024 MB HIGH IS ANCHORED ACROSS EASTERN TENNESSEE NEAR  
36N84W. MOSTLY MODERATE TO OCCASIONAL FRESH E-SE WINDS PREVAIL  
WITHIN THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF THE HIGH AS CLEAR SKIES ARE NOTED  
ON VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY. THE RIDGING IS FORECAST TO SLIDE  
EASTWARD INTO THE OFFSHORE WATERS OF THE MID-ATLC COAST THROUGH  
MONDAY AS SOUTHERLY RETURN FLOW PERSISTS ACROSS THE GULF UNTIL  
EARLY WEDNESDAY. BY WEDNESDAY MORNING...THE NEXT COLD FRONT IS  
FORECAST TO EMERGE OF THE TEXAS AND LOUISIANA COASTS PROVIDING A  
NEW ROUND OF FRESH TO OCCASIONAL STRONG N-NE WINDS IN WAKE OF THE  
FRONT AS IT SWEEPS E-SE AND STALLS ACROSS CENTRAL PORTIONS  
THURSDAY NIGHT.  
 
CARIBBEAN SEA...  
UPPER LEVEL RIDGING PREVAILS OVER THE CARIBBEAN BASIN THIS EVENING  
AS WATER VAPOR INDICATES MOSTLY DRY AIR WITHIN AN OVERALL  
SUBSIDENT ENVIRONMENT. ONE AREA OF INTEREST IS A SURFACE TROUGH  
ANALYZED ACROSS THE NW CARIBBEAN FROM CENTRAL HONDURAS NEAR 15N86W  
TO 20N83W. THIS TROUGHING IS PROVIDING FOCUS FOR ISOLATED LOW-  
TOPPED SHOWERS WITHIN 120 NM EITHER SIDE OF THE BOUNDARY AND  
FORECAST TO DRIFT WESTWARD TOWARD THE YUCATAN PENINSULA BY MONDAY.  
FARTHER EAST...QUICK MOVING ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE THROUGH  
THE OVERNIGHT HOURS INTO MONDAY E OF 70W. OTHERWISE...ASIDE FROM  
THE SPECIAL FEATURES NEAR GALE TO GALE FORCE WINDS EXPECTED OFF  
THE COAST OF COLOMBIA EACH NIGHT...MODERATE TO FRESH TRADES ARE  
EXPECTED TO PERSIST THROUGH MONDAY AND GRADUALLY INCREASE TO FRESH  
TO STRONG BREEZE LEVELS BY TUESDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE ANCHORS ITSELF  
TO THE N ACROSS THE SW NORTH ATLC REGION. THE STRENGTHENED  
PRESSURE GRADIENT ACROSS THE BASIN IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN IN PLACE  
THROUGH NEXT WEEK.  
   
..HISPANIOLA
 
 
CURRENTLY FAIR CONDITIONS AND MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES PREVAIL ACROSS  
THE ISLAND THIS EVENING. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY ALSO INDICATES VERY  
DRY AIR AND OVERALL STRONG SUBSIDENCE OVER THE REGION.  
 
ATLANTIC OCEAN...  
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE  
TROUGHING MOVING OVER THE CANADIAN MARITIMES THAT SUPPORTS A COLD  
FRONT ENTERING THE DISCUSSION AREA NEAR 32N71W AND EXTENDING SW TO  
28N77W THEN BECOMING STATIONARY THROUGH THE FLORIDA STRAITS TO  
24N82W. ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN 75 NM EITHER SIDE OF  
THE FRONT. TO THE E...A WEAK SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 29N66W TO  
25N71W WITH ISOLATED SHOWERS POSSIBLE WITHIN 60 NM EITHER SIDE OF  
THE TROUGH AXIS. OTHERWISE...THE REMAINDER OF THE CENTRAL AND  
EASTERN ATLC ARE UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF A SURFACE RIDGE ANCHORED  
BY A 1030 MB HIGH CENTERED W-SW OF THE AZORES NEAR 38N36W. WITHIN  
THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF THE RIDGING...A WEAK 1024 MB LOW IS  
CENTERED NEAR 33N40W WITH A COLD FRONT EXTENDING FROM THE LOW TO  
30N41W TO 28N46W. ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE OCCURRING N OF 28N BETWEEN  
36W-47W AND IS FORECAST TO DISSIPATE DURING THE NEXT 12 TO 24  
HOURS.  
 
FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT  
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE  
 

 
HUFFMAN  
 
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