493
AXNT20 KNHC 162317
TWDAT
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
0015 UTC THU JUL 17 2025
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA, CENTRAL AMERICA
GULF OF AMERICA, CARIBBEAN SEA, NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH
AMERICA, AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 31N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY, WEATHER OBSERVATIONS, RADAR AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.
BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
2310 UTC.
..SPECIAL FEATURES
NORTHEASTERN AND NORTH-CENTRAL GULF (AL93): SURFACE AND RADAR
OBSERVATIONS INDICATE THAT A WESTWARD-MOVING BROAD AREA OF LOW
PRESSURE IS LOCATED ALONG THE COAST OF THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE NEAR
PANAMA CITY. THE ASSOCIATED SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY
REMAINS DISORGANIZED AND LOCATED MAINLY SOUTH AND SOUTHWEST OF THE
CENTER. THIS SYSTEM IS FORECAST TO CONTINUE MOVING WESTWARD
ACROSS THE NORTHERN PORTION OF THE GULF THROUGH TONIGHT, REACHING
THE COAST OF LOUISIANA BY THURSDAY. IF THIS SYSTEM MOVES FAR
ENOUGH OFFSHORE, ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS OVER THE GULF APPEAR
GENERALLY FAVORABLE FOR ADDITIONAL DEVELOPMENT, AND A TROPICAL
DEPRESSION COULD FORM OVER THE NEXT DAY OR TWO BEFORE THE SYSTEM
MOVES FULLY INLAND BY THE END OF THE WEEK.
REGARDLESS OF DEVELOPMENT, HEAVY RAINFALL COULD PRODUCE LOCALIZED
FLASH FLOODING OVER PORTIONS OF FLORIDA THROUGH THROUGH TODAY.
HEAVY RAINFALL COULD ALSO CAUSE FLASH FLOODING FOR PORTIONS OF THE
NORTH-CENTRAL GULF COAST BEGINNING LATE TODAY AND CONTINUING THROUGH
FRIDAY. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION, PLEASE REFER TO PRODUCTS ISSUED
BY THE WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER AND YOUR LOCAL NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE OFFICE. THIS SYSTEM HAS A MEDIUM CHANCE OF TROPICAL
CYCLONE DEVELOPMENT DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS AND ALSO DURING THE
NEXT 7 DAYS. PLEASE REFER TO THE LATEST NHC TROPICAL WEATHER
OUTLOOK AT WWW.HURRICANES.GOV FOR MORE DETAILS.
..TROPICAL WAVES
A FAR EASTERN ATLANTIC TROPICAL WAVE EXTENDS FROM 08N TO 20N WITH
AXIS NEAR 22W, MOVING WESTWARD AT AROUND 5 KT. SCATTERED MODERATE
CONVECTION IS OBSERVED FROM 08N TO 13N BETWEEN 19W AND 30W.
A TROPICAL WAVE IS IN THE E CARIBBEAN SEA WITH AXIS NEAR 62W,
SOUTH OF 20N, MOVING WEST AT 10 KT. THERE IS NO SIGNIFICANT
CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH THIS WAVE.
A TROPICAL WAVE IN IN THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN SEA WITH AXIS NEAR 74W,
SOUTH OF 20N. THERE IS NO SIGNIFICANT CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH
THIS WAVE.
..MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ
THE MONSOON TROUGH ENTERS THE ATLANTIC NEAR 14N17W AND CONTINUES
SOUTHWESTWARD TO 10N30W TO 07N43W. THE ITCZ EXTENDS FROM 07N43W
TO 08N55W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FOUND FROM 07N TO 11N
BETWEEN 48W AND 61W.
..GULF OF AMERICA
PLEASE SEE THE SPECIAL FEATURES SECTION FOR MORE INFORMATION ON
INVEST AL93 OVER THE NE GULF.
A BROAD AREA OF LOW PRESSURE, INVEST AL93, IS CENTERED OVER THE NE
GULF NEAR 30N86W, AND CONTINUES TO GENERATE NUMEROUS MODERATE TO
STRONG CONVECTION OVER SOUTHERN ALABAMA AND MISSISSIPPI, AND SE
LOUISIANA AS WELL AS ADJACENT OFFSHORE WATERS. SCATTERED MODERATE
CONVECTION IS ELSEWHERE ACROSS THE E GULF AND NW GULF. A 1016 MB
HIGH PRESSURE IS OVER THE CENTRAL BASIN NEAR 24N93W AND IS
SUPPORTING MODERATE TO LOCALLY SOUTHERLIES OVER THE FAR NE AND NW
GULF AND NE WINDS OF THE SAME SPEED OFF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA INTO
THE BAY OF CAMPECHE. SEAS BASIN-WIDE ARE SLIGHT TO MODERATE PER
ALTIMETER DATA.
FOR THE FORECAST, INVEST AL93 IS FORECAST TO CONTINUE MOVING
WESTWARD ACROSS THE NORTHERN PORTION OF THE GULF THROUGH TONIGHT,
REACHING THE COAST OF LOUISIANA BY THURSDAY. IF THIS SYSTEM MOVES
FAR ENOUGH OFFSHORE, ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS OVER THE GULF APPEAR
GENERALLY FAVORABLE FOR ADDITIONAL DEVELOPMENT, AND A TROPICAL
DEPRESSION COULD FORM OVER THE NEXT DAY OR TWO BEFORE THE SYSTEM
MOVES FULLY INLAND BY THE END OF THE WEEK. REGARDLESS OF
DEVELOPMENT, HEAVY SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED OVER THE
NORTH-CENTRAL GULF THROUGH FRI, AND ERRATIC GUSTY WINDS AND ROUGH
SEAS WILL BE POSSIBLE NEAR CONVECTION. THERE IS A MEDIUM CHANCE
OF FORMATION WITHIN THE NEXT 48 HOURS.
..CARIBBEAN SEA
PLEASE SEE THE TROPICAL WAVE SECTION FOR MORE INFORMATION OF THE
TROPICAL WAVES MOVING ACROSS THE BASIN.
AN ELONGATED UPPER-LEVEL LOW EXTENDS FROM THE CENTRAL BAHAMAS
SOUTHWARD ACROSS CUBA AND THE WINDWARD PASSAGE. THIS FEATURE IS
PROVIDING LIFT TO SUPPORT SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION OVER CUBA
AND ADJACENT NW CARIBBEAN WATERS. FAIR AND STABLE CONDITIONS
GENERALLY PREVAIL ACROSS THE REST OF THE BASIN. AN ATLANTIC 1025
MB HIGH PRESSURE IS CENTERED NEAR 32N61W, AND EXTENDS A RIDGE
WESTWARD TO THE NORTH CAROLINA COAST. THE PRESSURE GRADIENT SOUTH
OF THE RIDGE IS FORCING FRESH TO STRONG EASTERLY WINDS AND SEAS OF
6-10 FT IN THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN SOUTH OF 16N, WITH THE STRONGEST
WINDS AND HIGHEST SEAS OCCURRING OFF NORTHERN COLOMBIA. MODERATE
TO FRESH EASTERLY WINDS AND MODERATE SEAS ARE PREVALENT IN THE
EASTERN CARIBBEAN. MODERATE OR WEAKER WINDS AND SLIGHT SEAS ARE
FOUND ELSEWHERE.
FOR THE FORECAST, FRESH TO STRONG TRADE WINDS AND ROUGH SEAS WILL
OCCUR OVER THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN, INCLUDING THROUGH THE WINDWARD
PASSAGE, THROUGH THU AS A TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT PREVAILS BETWEEN
HIGH PRESSURE IN THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC AND LOW PRESSURE OVER
NORTHERN COLOMBIA. STRONG E WINDS AND ROUGH TO LOCALLY VERY ROUGH
SEAS WILL CONTINUE AND EXPAND INTO THE WEST-CENTRAL BASIN THU
NIGHT THROUGH SAT MORNING AS THE PRESSURE GRADIENT STRENGTHENS
FURTHER. PERIODS OF NEAR-GALE FORCE WINDS WILL BE POSSIBLE
OFFSHORE OF NORTHERN COLOMBIA AND IN THE GULF OF VENEZUELA EACH
NIGHT AND EARLY MORNING INTO SAT. WINDS AND SEAS WILL DIMINISH
SLIGHTLY SAT INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. ELSEWHERE, PULSING MODERATE TO
FRESH E TO NE WINDS ARE EXPECTED IN THE GULF OF HONDURAS EACH
AFTERNOON AND EVENING INTO THIS WEEKEND. OTHERWISE, MODERATE TO
FRESH TRADE WINDS AND MODERATE SEAS WILL OCCUR IN THE EASTERN
BASIN INTO NEXT WEEK.
..ATLANTIC OCEAN
PLEASE SEE THE TROPICAL WAVE SECTION FOR MORE INFORMATION OF THE
TROPICAL WAVES MOVING ACROSS THE BASIN.
A COLD FRONT EXTENDS FROM 31N31W SW TO 22N48W WITH NO CONVECTION
ASSOCIATED WITH IT. THE REST OF THE BASIN IS DOMINATED BY AN
EXPANSIVE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE CENTERED BY A 10125 MB BERMUDA HIGH
AND A 1023 MB AZORES HIGH. THE PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN THIS
RIDGE AND LOWER PRESSURES ASSOCIATED WITH THE PASSAGE OF A
TROPICAL WAVE THROUGH THE WINDWARD PASSAGE IS SUSTAINING FRESH TO
STRONG E WINDS AND ROUGH SEAS TO 8 FT N OF HISPANIOLA AND MODERATE
TO FRESH EASTERLIES ELSEWHERE S OF 25N OVER THE SW N ATLANTIC
WATERS. MODERATE OR WEAKER WINDS AND MODERATE SEAS ARE ELSEWHERE
IN THE SUBTROPICS, EXCEPT BETWEEN THE NW COAST OF AFRICA AND THE
CANARY ISLANDS WHERE FRESH TO STRONG NE WINDS AND ROUGH SEAS TO 9
FT ARE PRESENT. OTHERWISE, MODERATE TO FRESH TRADES ARE ONGOING
BETWEEN THE LESSER ANTILLES AND 40W.
FOR THE FORECAST WEST OF 55W, MODERATE TO LOCALLY FRESH E TO SE
WINDS ARE EXPECTED NORTH OF THE GREATER ANTILLES TO 27N AND OFF
THE COAST OF FLORIDA WEST OF 75W THROUGH THU AS A STRONG PRESSURE
GRADIENT PREVAILS BETWEEN HIGH PRESSURE IN THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC
AND LOW PRESSURE OVER NORTHERN COLOMBIA. OCCASIONAL STRONG WINDS
AND ROUGH SEAS ARE EXPECTED OFF THE COAST OF NORTHERN HISPANIOLA
INTO EARLY SAT. WINDS WILL DIMINISH OFF THE COAST OF FLORIDA BY
EARLY FRI, AND NORTH OF THE GREATER ANTILLES AND OVER THE BAHAMAS
BY SAT MORNING. SOUTH OF 20N, MODERATE TO OCCASIONALLY FRESH TRADE
WINDS AND MODERATE SEAS WILL OCCUR THROUGH THIS WEEKEND.
RAMOS
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