873  
AXNT20 KNHC 241740  
TWDAT  
 
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION  
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL  
205 PM EDT SUN JUL 24 2016  
 
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA, CENTRAL AMERICA  
GULF OF MEXICO, CARIBBEAN SEA, NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH  
AMERICA, AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE  
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE  
IMAGERY, WEATHER OBSERVATIONS, RADAR AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.  
 
BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH  
1715 UTC.  
   
..TROPICAL WAVES
 
 
TROPICAL WAVE IN THE WEST TROPICAL ATLANTIC EXTENDS ALONG 50W  
FROM 9N-20N MOVING WEST NEAR 25 KT OVER THE PAST 24 HOURS. WAVE  
COINCIDES WITH A WELL DEFIED 700 MB TROUGH AS DEPICTED IN THE  
GLOBAL MODELS AND WITHIN A HIGHLY AMPLIFIED SURGE OF MOISTURE AS  
SEEN ON THE SSMI TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY. NO ASSOCIATED  
DEEP CONVECTION.  
 
TROPICAL WAVE OVER THE YUCATAN PENINSULA ALONG 90W/91W SOUTH OF  
21N MOVING WEST NEAR 15 KT OVER THE PAST 24 HOURS. WAVE  
COINCIDES WITH A 700 MB TROUGH AS DEPICTED IN THE GLOBAL MODELS  
AND WITHIN A SURGE OF MOISTURE THAT COVERS ALL OF THE GULF OF  
MEXICO AS SEEN ON THE SSMI TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY.  
NO ASSOCIATED DEEP CONVECTION IN THE GULF OF MEXICO OR  
CARIBBEAN.  
 
TROPICAL WAVE THAT MOVED INLAND OVER SOUTH MEXICO IS NO LONGER  
GENERATING ANY ACTIVITY IN THE GULF OF MEXICO. PLEASE SEE THE  
EAST PACIFIC TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS  
MIATWDEP/AXPZ20 KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS.  
   
..ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH
 
 
THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS ACROSS AFRICA INTO THE EAST TROPICAL  
ATLANTIC NEAR 21N16W AND CONTINUES ALONG 15N22W THROUGH A WEAK  
1012 MB LOW NEAR 13N26W TO 8N40W WHERE THE ITCZ BEGINS AND  
CONTINUES ALONG 8N51W TO SOUTH AMERICA NEAR 7N58W. SCATTERED  
MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS INLAND AND WITHIN 30  
NM ALONG THE COAST OF AFRICA FROM 13N-15N. CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED  
MODERATE CONVECTION ARE WITHIN 75 NM ALONG THE COAST OF AFRICA  
FROM 8N-13N, WITHIN 150 NM OF LINE FROM 10N23W TO 5N36W, AND  
WITHIN 120 NM ALONG THE COAST OF SOUTH AMERICA SOUTH OF 9N WEST  
OF 55W.  
   
..DISCUSSION
 
 
GULF OF MEXICO...  
 
AN UPPER RIDGE IS ANCHORED OVER EAST TEXAS EXTENDING A RIDGE  
AXIS SOUTHEAST OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO TO THE YUCATAN PENINSULA  
COVERING THE GULF WEST OF 86W. AN UPPER LOW IS CENTERED OVER  
SOUTH FLORIDA COVERING THE REMAINDER OF THE GULF. THE UPPER LOW  
IS GENERATING SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE GULF  
FROM 23N-27N BETWEEN 83W-88W AND SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED  
THUNDERSTORMS SOUTH OF 25N FROM OVER FLORIDA TO THE NORTH COAST  
OF CUBA EAST OF 83W THROUGH THE STRAITS OF FLORIDA INCLUDING THE  
FLORIDA KEYS. THE UPPER RIDGE IS PROVIDING DIFFLUNCE ALOFT TO  
GENERATE SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS NORTH OF  
27N TO INLAND OVER THE NORTH GULF COAST BETWEEN 84W-95W. THIS IS  
LEAVING THE SOUTHWEST GULF UNDER CLEAR SKIES THIS AFTERNOON. A  
SURFACE RIDGE EXTENDS FROM THE WEST ATLANTIC ACROSS FLORIDA TO  
OVER THE EAST GULF. THE SURFACE RIDGE WILL PERSIST THROUGH  
MIDWEEK.  
 
CARIBBEAN SEA...  
 
AN UPPER RIDGE IS ANCHORED OVER NICARAGUA EXTENDING A RIDGE AXIS  
INTO THE CARIBBEAN TO 15N82W. AN INVERTED UPPER TROUGH EXTENDS  
FROM A AN UPPER LOW ALONG THE COAST OF COLOMBIA NEAR 12N74W  
ACROSS HAITI INTO THE WEST/CENTRAL ATLANTIC. THIS IS GENERATING  
ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS NORTH OF 17N TO OVER THE  
DOMINICAN REPUBLIC BETWEEN 68W-71W, BETWEEN SOUTHWEST HAITI AND  
JAMAICA, AND SOUTH OF THE CAYMAN ISLANDS WITHIN 45 NM OF  
17.5N82W. THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM COLOMBIA ACROSS PANAMA  
AND COSTA RICA ALONG 8N/9N GENERATING SCATTERED SHOWERS AND  
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS SOUTH OF 10N WEST OF 77W. THIS IS LEAVING  
THE REMAINDER OF THE CARIBBEAN UNDER MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES THIS  
AFTERNOON. THE TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN THE WEST ATLANTIC  
SURFACE RIDGE AND THE LOWER PRESSURE OVER SOUTH AMERICA IS  
PRODUCING FRESH TO STRONG TRADE WINDS ACROSS THE SOUTH-CENTRAL  
CARIBBEAN THAT WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE MIDWEEK. THE NEXT  
TROPICAL WAVE WILL ENTER THE EAST CARIBBEAN MONDAY NIGHT, THEN  
INTO THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN TUESDAY.  
   
..HISPANIOLA
 
 
 
ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE OVER THE DOMINICAN  
REPUBLIC NORTH OF 17N BETWEEN 68W-71W LEAVING THE REMAINDER OF  
THE ISLAND UNDER MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES THIS AFTERNOON. AFTERNOON/  
EVENING ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE THROUGH  
TONIGHT AND MONDAY.  
 
ATLANTIC OCEAN...  
 
THE UPPER LOW CENTERED OVER SOUTH FLORIDA IS GENERATING  
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FROM 23N-28N WEST OF 77W TO  
OVER THE FLORIDA PENINSULA AND INCLUDING THE NORTH BAHAMA  
ISLANDS. AN UPPER TROUGH IS DIGGING SOUTH TO 30N OVER CENTRAL  
ATLANTIC GENERATING SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS  
NORTH OF THE 30N BETWEEN 60W-65W. OTHERWISE, HIGH PRESSURE  
DOMINATES THE REMAINDER OF THE ATLANTIC WITH A SURFACE RIDGE  
EXTENDING FROM A 1032 MB HIGH WEST-NORTHWEST OF THE AZORES  
THROUGH 32N48W ALONG 29N61W TO A 1019 MB HIGH NEAR 30N78W ACROSS  
FLORIDA TO OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO. SURFACE RIDGE WILL PERSIST  
THROUGH MIDWEEK. FRESH TO STRONG WINDS WILL PULSE OFF THE NORTH  
COAST OF HISPANIOLA EACH EVENING THROUGH MIDWEEK.  
 
FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT  
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE  
 

 
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