726
AXNT20 KNHC 060246
TWDAT
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
0615 UTC MON JUL 6 2026
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA, CENTRAL AMERICA
GULF OF AMERICA, CARIBBEAN SEA, NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH
AMERICA, AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 31N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY, WEATHER OBSERVATIONS, RADAR AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.
BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
0230 UTC.
..TROPICAL WAVES
A TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 31W S OF 17N, MOVING W AT 10 TO 15 KT.
CONVECTION IS DESCRIBED IN THE MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ SECTION BELOW.
AN ATLANTIC TROPICAL WAVE IS NEAR 38W AND S OF 18N, MOVING W AT
10 KT. CONVECTION IS DESCRIBED IN THE MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ SECTION
BELOW.
AN ATLANTIC TROPICAL WAVE IS NEAR 48W SOUTH OF 19N, MOVING W AT
AROUND 15 KT. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS NOTED ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN HALF OF THE WAVE S OF 10N.
A CARIBBEAN TROPICAL WAVE IS NEAR 79W, SOUTH OF 19N, MOVING W AT
AT 10-15 KT. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS ACTIVE FROM 11N TO
20N BETWEEN 78W AND 86W.
..MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ
THE MONSOON TROUGH ENTERS THE ATLANTIC NEAR 20N16W TO 10N20W.
SEGMENTS OF THE ITCZ EXTEND FROM 10N21W TO 08N30W, FROM 05N32W TO
07N38W, FROM 07N39W TO 08N47W, AND FROM 08N49W TO 08N58W.
SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS NOTED WITHIN 240 NM ON EITHER
SIDE OF THE ITCZ AND W OF 25W.
..GULF OF AMERICA
1016 MB HIGH PRESSURE IS CENTERED OVER THE CENTRAL GULF NEAR
26N88W. A SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS ACROSS THE YUCATAN PENINSULA INTO
THE YUCATAN CHANNEL. ANOTHER TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE WESTERN
FLORIDA PANHANDLE TO SOUTH OF APALACHICOLA, FLORIDA. ISOLATED
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE ACTIVE NEAR THESE TROUGHS ACROSS
THE EASTERN GULF AND OVER THE YUCATAN CHANNEL. MODERATE TO FRESH
NW WINDS ARE POSSIBLE OFF THE WESTERN COAST OF THE YUCATAN
PENINSULA. GENTLE TO MODERATE BREEZES ARE EVIDENT ELSEWHERE. SEAS
ARE 1-3 FT SEAS ACROSS THE BASIN.
FOR THE FORECAST, SURFACE RIDGING IS FORECAST TO PREVAIL ACROSS
THE BASIN THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD, THUS SUPPORTING GENTLE TO
MODERATE WINDS OVER THE WESTERN HALF OF THE GULF, EXCEPT FOR
LOCALLY FRESH TO STRONG ENE WINDS OFFSHORE THE YUCATAN PENINSULA
AT NIGHT. LOCALLY MODERATE OR WEAKER WINDS ARE FORECAST FOR THE
EASTERN HALF OF THE GULF WHILE MAINLY SLIGHT SEAS ARE FORECAST
BASIN-WIDE.
..CARIBBEAN SEA
THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE EXTENDING NORTH OF THE AREA ACROSS THE
WESTERN ATLANTIC IS SUPPORTING MODERATE TO FRESH TRADE WINDS
ACROSS THE EASTERN AND CENTRAL CARIBBEAN, WITH STRONG E WINDS
NOTED OFF NORTHEAST COLOMBIA AND NORTHWEST VENEZUELA AS WELL AS
THE GULF OF HONDURAS. GENTLE TO MODERATE BREEZES ARE NOTED
ELSEWHERE. SEAS ARE 5-8 FT OVER THE EASTERN AND CENTRAL
CARIBBEAN, AND 3-5 FT ELSEWHERE EXCEPT 1-3 FT IN THE FAR NORTHWEST
CARIBBEAN. A MID TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE WESTERN
ATLANTIC ACROSS EASTERN CUBA AND JAMAICA, AND TOWARD NICARAGUA.
UPPER LEVEL DIVERGENT FLOW ALONG WITH CONVERGENT LOWER LEVEL TRADE
WIND FLOW IS SUPPORTING SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS
MUCH OF THE NORTHWEST CARIBBEAN BETWEEN HONDURAS AND JAMAICA.
FOR THE FORECAST, THE PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN THE ATLANTIC RIDGE
NORTH OF THE BASIN AND THE COLOMBIAN LOW WILL CONTINUE TO
SUPPORT FRESH TO STRONG TRADE WINDS AND MODERATE TO ROUGH SEAS
OVER THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN THROUGH THE WEEKEND. THE AERIAL EXTENT
OF THESE WINDS WILL INCREASE TONIGHT INTO MON AS THE ATLANTIC
RIDGE CONTINUES TO BUILD WESTWARD. BY WED, THE FRESH TO STRONG
WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO EXTEND ACROSS MOST OF THE EAST, CENTRAL AND
SW CARIBBEAN. EXPECT WINDS TO REACH NEAR-GALE FORCE AT NIGHT
OFFSHORE OF COLOMBIA AND IN THE GULF OF VENEZUELA FROM TONIGHT
THROUGH FRI. MODERATE OR WEAKER WINDS WILL PREVAIL OVER THE NW
PART OF THE BASIN, EXCEPT IN THE GULF OF HONDURAS WHERE FRESH TO
LOCALLY STRONG E TO SE WINDS ARE FORECAST AT NIGHT THROUGH THE
FORECAST PERIOD.
..ATLANTIC OCEAN
THE ATLANTIC SUBTROPICAL RIDGE DOMINATES THE ATLANTIC NORTH OF
20N, AND IS ANCHORED BY 1026 MB HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED NEAR
29N39W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS OCCURRING ALONG A SURFACE
TROUGH ANALYZED FROM 31N53W TO 29N72W. THE PATTERN IS SUPPORTING
GENTLE TO MODERATE BREEZES AND 3-5 FT SEAS ALONG AND WEST OF THE
RIDGE AXIS, AND MODERATE TO FRESH NE TO E TRADE WINDS AND 5-7 FT
SEAS EAST AND SOUTH OF THE RIDGE AXIS.
FOR THE FORECAST WEST OF 55W, THE ATLANTIC SUBTROPICAL RIDGE WILL STAY IN PLACE
THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD, DEVELOPING A CENTER OF HIGH PRESSURE
E OF THE BAHAMAS BY FRI. THIS PATTERN WILL CONTINUE TO SUPPORT
MODERATE TO FRESH E TO SE TRADE WINDS S OF 23N, AND MODERATE OR
WEAKER WINDS ELSEWHERE. LOCALLY STRONG WINDS, WITH MODERATE TO
ROUGH SEAS ARE EXPECTED AT NIGHT NORTH OF HISPANIOLA, INCLUDING
APPROACHES TO THE WINDWARD PASSAGE, THROUGH FRI NIGHT.
CHRISTENSEN
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