746
AXNT20 KNHC 261000
TWDAT
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1215 UTC TUE AUG 26 2025
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA, CENTRAL AMERICA
GULF OF AMERICA, CARIBBEAN SEA, NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH
AMERICA, AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 31N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY, WEATHER OBSERVATIONS, RADAR AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.
BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
0700 UTC.
..TROPICAL WAVES
A FAR EASTERN ATLANTIC TROPICAL WAVE IS ANALYZED NEAR 25W FROM 18N
AND THE WESTERN CABO VERDE ISLANDS SOUTHWARD, MOVING WEST AT
AROUND 15 KT. NO SIGNIFICANT CONVECTION IS SEEN NEAR THIS WAVE.
A CENTRAL ATLANTIC TROPICAL WAVE IS ANALYZED ALONG 52.5W, FROM
20N SOUTHWARD, MOVING WEST AT AROUND 15 KT. NO SIGNIFICANT
CONVECTION IS ASSOCIATED WITH THIS WAVE AT THIS TIME.
AN CENTRAL CARIBBEAN TROPICAL WAVE IS ANALYZED ALONG 72W, FROM
NEAR THE BORDER OF COLOMBIA AND VENEZUELA, MOVING WEST AT AROUND
20 KT. SCATTERED MODERATE ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS NOTED
FROM 13.5N TO 18N BETWEEN 65W AND 73W.
THE NORTHERN TIP OF A TROPICAL WAVE IS IN THE CENTRAL BAY OF
CAMPECHE NEAR 93W SOUTH OF 21N AND INTO THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN,
MOVING WEST AT AROUND 10 KT. CONVECTION IS LOCATED INLAND OVER
PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN MEXICO.
..MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ
THE MONSOON TROUGH ENTERS THE ATLANTIC NEAR THE COASTAL BORDER OF
MAURITANIA AND SENEGAL AND EXTENDS SOUTHWESTWARD TO NEAR 06.5N33W.
THE ITCZ THEN CONTINUES FROM 06.5N33W TO NEAR 11N49W WHERE IT IS
DISCONTINUED BY A TROPICAL WAVE. WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE
CONVECTION IS NOTED FROM 05N TO 07.5N BETWEEN 23W AND 35W.
THE EASTERN EXTENSION OF THE EAST PACIFIC MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS
ACROSS THE FAR SW CARIBBEAN. SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG
CONVECTION IS SEEN ALONG THE COASTS OF COLOMBIA, PANAMA, AND
COSTA RICA.
..GULF OF AMERICA
A STATIONARY FRONT STRETCHES FROM NEAR THE GEORGIA/FLORIDA
BORDER TO SOUTH OF THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE TO SE LOUISIANA WITH A
TROUGH FROM NEAR NAPLES, FLORIDA TO THE CENTRAL BAY OF CAMPECHE.
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE BETWEEN THE TWO FEATURES.
A WEAK RIDGE AXIS IS ALSO NOTED BETWEEN THE FEATURES ALONG ROUGHLY
26N BY AN EARLIER ASCAT SCATTEROMETER PASS. LIGHT TO GENTLE WINDS
ARE N OF 25N, EXCEPT MODERATE NEAR THE BORDER OF S TEXAS AND
MEXICO, AND MODERATE TO LOCALLY FRESH S OF 25N, HIGHEST WEST OF
THE YUCATAN PENINSULA. SEAS ARE MAINLY SLIGHT, EXCEPT MODERATE IN
THE BAY OF CAMPECHE NEAR THE STRONGEST WINDS.
FOR THE FORECAST, THE STATIONARY FRONT WILL GET REINFORCED AND
MOVE ACROSS N-CENTRAL FLORIDA AND THE NE GULF TONIGHT AND WED,
THEN LIFT N OF THE AREA BY THU. MODERATE NE WINDS AND SLIGHT TO
MODERATE SEAS ARE EXPECTED IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT. GENTLE TO
MODERATE WINDS AND SLIGHT SEAS WILL PREVAIL, EXCEPT MODERATE TO
FRESH NE TO E WINDS OVER THE S-CENTRAL GULF EACH AFTERNOON THROUGH
THE WEEK AS A TROUGH DEVELOPS OVER THE YUCATAN PENINSULA AND
MOVES WESTWARD AT NIGHT, LOCALLY STRONG TONIGHT. SLIGHT TO LOCALLY
MODERATE SEAS ARE EXPECTED WITH THOSE WINDS THROUGH THE PERIOD.
..CARIBBEAN SEA
PLEASE REFER TO THE MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ SECTION FOR DETAILS ON
CONVECTION IN THE SW CARIBBEAN.
A TROPICAL WAVE LOCATED OVER THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN, WITH AXIS
ALONG 72W, IS PRODUCING SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS FROM S OF PUERTO RICO AND HISPANIOLA TO THE N OF
13N. FRESH TO STRONG WINDS AND MODERATE TO ROUGH SEAS ARE ALSO
ASSOCIATED WITH THE WAVE BETWEEN 66W AND 79W, WITH SIMILAR WINDS
BEING FORCED ACROSS THE APPROACH AND THROUGH THE WINDWARD PASSAGE.
FRESH TO STRONG WINDS ARE ALSO NEAR THE GULF OF HONDURAS. MODERATE
TRADES ARE ELSEWHERE IN THE NW CARIBBEAN AND MODERATE TO FRESH
ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF THE BASIN. SEAS ARE LOCALLY ROUGH FROM THE
ANEGADA AND MONA PASSAGES SOUTHWESTWARD TO ACROSS THE CENTRAL
CARIBBEAN AND TO OFF THE NORTHERN COAST OF COLOMBIA. SEAS ARE
MAINLY SLIGHT IN THE NW CARIBBEAN N OF 18N AND MODERATE ACROSS THE
REMAINDER OF THE BASIN.
FOR THE FORECAST, THE TROPICAL WAVE AND ASSOCIATED CONDITIONS ARE
FORECAST TO MOVE FROM THE CENTRAL TO THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN OVER
THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. FRESH TO STRONG WINDS WILL THEN BECOME
CONFINED TO THE S-CENTRAL WATERS BY MIDWEEK. FRESH TO STRONG E TO
SE WINDS WILL PULSE ACROSS THE GULF OF HONDURAS THROUGH AROUND
SUNRISE, THEN MAINLY MODERATE TO FRESH WINDS THROUGH TONIGHT.
FRESH TO LOCALLY STRONG WINDS WILL PULSE NEAR THE WINDWARD PASSAGE
THROUGH TONIGHT. NORTHERLY SWELL PROPAGATING ACROSS THE TROPICAL
ATLANTIC WATERS WILL CONTINUE TO GRADUALLY SUBSIDE TODAY.
..ATLANTIC OCEAN
A SLOW-MOVING FRONTAL BOUNDARY OVER THE SE US IS CAUSING SCATTERED
MODERATE CONVECTION TO DEVELOP OFFSHORE THE E FL COAST, GENERALLY
N OF 26N AND W OF 69W WITH MORE ISOLATED ACTIVITY NOTED ON
SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH THE CENTRAL BAHAMAS. WINDS ARE LOCALLY
FRESH WITH SEAS OF 5-7 FT OVER THE AREA OFFSHORE N FLORIDA.
OTHERWISE, RIDGING DOMINATES MUCH OF THE ATLANTIC, WITH MODERATE
TO FRESH TRADES AND MODERATE SEAS OCCURRING ACROSS MOST OF THE
BASIN WITH A FEW EMBEDDED AND ONLY SLIGHTLY DISRUPTIVE SURFACE
TROUGHS NORTH OF 21N BETWEEN 36W AND 51W WITH LITTLE IMPACT FROM
THEM. FRESH TO STRONG WINDS ARE NOTED OFFSHORE NORTHERN AFRICA AND
THROUGH THE CANARY ISLANDS EXTENDING SOUTHWARD TO NEAR THE CABO
VERDE ISLANDS AND 15N. WINDS ARE MAINLY MODERATE OR WEAKER ACROSS
THE REMAINDER OF THE WATERS. SEAS ARE 7-9 FT FROM NEAR THE CABO
VERDE ISLANDS NORTHWARD AND NORTHWESTWARD TO 31N45W ASSOCIATED
WITH DECAYING SWELLS GENERATED BY FORMER TROPICAL CYCLONE ERIN.
MAINLY 5-7 FT SEAS, LOCALLY TO 8 FT, DOMINATE THE REMAINDER OF THE
BASIN OUTSIDE OF THE BAHAMAS MAINLY IN NORTHERLY SWELL.
FOR THE FORECAST, THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY LINGERING NEAR THE SE U.S.
COAST WILL BE REINFORCED BY A COLD FRONT LATER TODAY, REACHING
FROM 31N75W TO NORTH-CENTRAL FLORIDA ON WED, THEN WILL LIFT NW OF
THE AREA ON THU. LOCALLY FRESH WINDS AND MODERATE SEAS ARE
EXPECTED SE OF THE FRONT THROUGH THIS EVENING. A RIDGE WILL
DOMINATE THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST REGION. ANOTHER WEAK FRONT
MAY MOVE INTO THE NW WATERS BY THE END OF THE WEEK INTO THE
WEEKEND. FRESH TO STRONG WINDS WILL PULSE N OF HISPANIOLA THROUGH
THIS EVENING. MEANWHILE, NORTHERLY SWELL PROPAGATING ACROSS THE W
ATLANTIC WILL CONTINUE TO GRADUALLY SUBSIDE TODAY.
LEWITSKY
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