606
AXNT20 KNHC 101033
TWDAT
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1215 UTC FRI OCT 10 2025
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA, CENTRAL AMERICA
GULF OF AMERICA, CARIBBEAN SEA, NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH
AMERICA, AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 31N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY, WEATHER OBSERVATIONS, RADAR AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.
BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
0955 UTC.
..SPECIAL FEATURES
TROPICAL STORM JERRY IS CENTERED NEAR 19.2N 62.5W AT 10/0900 UTC
OR 70 NM NNE OF THE NORTHERN LEEWARD ISLANDS, MOVING NW AT 15
KT. ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1007 MB. MAXIMUM
SUSTAINED WIND SPEED IS 45 KT WITH GUSTS TO 55 KT. SEAS ARE
PEAKING NEAR 21 FT (6 M) JUST NORTHEAST OF THE CENTER. NUMEROUS
MODERATE TO SCATTERED STRONG CONVECTION IS OBSERVED FROM 12N TO
25N AND BETWEEN 57W AND 64W. HEAVY DOWNPOURS ARE IMPACTING THE
LESSER ANTILLES. JERRY IS MOVING TOWARD THE NW AND A TURN TOWARD
THE NORTH IS EXPECTED TONIGHT INTO SATURDAY, FOLLOWED BY A
NORTHWARD TO NORTH-NORTHEASTWARD MOTION THROUGH THE REST OF THE
WEEKEND. ON THE FORECAST TRACK, THE CENTER OF JERRY WILL CONTINUE
PASSING TO THE NORTH OF THE LEEWARD ISLANDS THIS MORNING, THEN
MOVE AWAY FROM THE ISLANDS LATER TODAY. LITTLE CHANGE IN STRENGTH
IS EXPECTED TODAY, BUT SLOW STRENGTHENING IS POSSIBLE OVER THE
WEEKEND. SWELLS GENERATED BY JERRY ARE AFFECTING THE LEEWARD ISLANDS,
WINDWARD ISLANDS, THE VIRGIN ISLANDS, AND PUERTO RICO, AND ARE
LIKELY TO CAUSE LIFE-THREATENING SURF AND RIP CURRENT CONDITIONS.
THESE SWELLS ARE EXPECTED TO SPREAD TOWARD THE REST OF THE GREATER
ANTILLES TODAY AND TONIGHT. PLEASE CONSULT PRODUCTS FROM YOUR LOCAL
WEATHER OFFICE FOR MORE INFORMATION.
PLEASE READ THE LATEST HIGH SEAS FORECAST ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL
HURRICANE CENTER AT WEBSITE -
HTTPS://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/TEXT/MIAHSFAT2.SHTML AND THE LATEST JERRY
NHC FORECAST/ADVISORY AND PUBLIC ADVISORY AT WWW.HURRICANES.GOV
FOR MORE DETAILS.
SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL ACROSS EASTERN MEXICO:
CONVERGENT LOW-LEVEL WINDS AND ABUNDANT TROPICAL MOISTURE WILL
CONTINUE TO TRIGGER PERIODIC HEAVY SHOWERS AND ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS TODAY, ACROSS EASTERN MEXICO ALONG THE BAY OF
CAMPECHE FROM NEAR THE BORDER OF TAMAULIPAS AND SAN LUIS POTOSI
STATES SOUTHWARD TO CENTRAL VERACRUZ STATES. LOCALLY HEAVY
DOWNPOURS CAN STILL LEAD TO FLASH AND URBAN FLOODING, ESPECIALLY
IN LOW-LYING AREAS AND HILLY TERRAINS. PLEASE STAY UP TO DATE WITH
THE LATEST FORECAST AND POSSIBLE FLOOD STATEMENTS FROM YOUR LOCAL
WEATHER AGENCY FOR DETAILS.
..TROPICAL WAVES
AN EASTERN ATLANTIC TROPICAL WAVE IS NEAR 38W, SOUTH OF 20N, MOVING
WEST AROUND 10-15 KT. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS PRESENT
FROM 05N TO 14N AND BETWEEN 30W AND 48W.
A CENTRAL CARIBBEAN TROPICAL WAVE IS NEAR 74W, SOUTH OF 19N,
MOVING WESTWARD AT 10 KT. SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE SEEN IN THE
SOUTH-CENTRAL CARIBBEAN.
A WESTERN CARIBBEAN TROPICAL WAVE IS NEAR 84W, SOUTH OF 20N, MOVING
WESTWARD AT 10-15 KT. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FOUND
WITHIN 120 NM OF THE TROUGH AXIS.
..MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ
THE MONSOON TROUGH ENTERS THE ATLANTIC THROUGH THE COAST OF
SENEGAL NEAR 13N16W TO 09N25W. THE ITCZ EXTENDS FROM 09N25W TO
09N34W AND THEN FROM 09N40W TO 07N58W. SCATTERED MODERATE
CONVECTION IS EVIDENT FROM 02N TO 14N AND EAST OF 23W.
..GULF OF AMERICA
PLEASE READ THE SPECIAL FEATURES SECTION ON POTENTIAL HEAVY RAIN
ACROSS EASTERN MEXICO.
A FRONTAL BOUNDARY IS ANALYZED IN THE SE GULF WATERS PRODUCING
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS. MEANWHILE, A SURFACE
TROUGH IS PRESENT IN THE WESTERN GULF WATERS SUPPORTING A FEW
SHOWERS. HIGH PRESSURE NORTH OF THE AREA SUPPORT MODERATE TO FRESH
NE-E WINDS OVER MUCH OF THE BASIN, WITH LOCALLY STRONG WINDS
OCCURRING IN THE NE GULF WATERS. THIS WAS CONFIRMED BY A RECENT
SCATTEROMETER SATELLITE PASS. SURFACE OBSERVATIONS INDICATE THAT
ROUGH SEAS ARE PRESENT IN THE NE GULF, WHILE MODERATE SEAS PREVAIL
ELSEWHERE.
FOR THE FORECAST, PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN A STRONG HIGH PRESSURE
OVER THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY AND A FRONTAL TROUGH IN THE SE GULF
AND A SURFACE TROUGH IN THE BAY OF CAMPECHE RESULT IN MODERATE TO
FRESH NE-E WINDS OVER MUCH OF THE BASIN. STRONG WINDS AND ROUGH
SEAS ARE FOUND IN THE NE GULF AND THIS WILL CONTINUE INTO SAT.
CONDITIONS WILL IMPROVE LATE SAT AND ESPECIALLY SUN AS A NON-
TROPICAL LOW PRESSURE LIFTS NORTH OVER THE W ATLANTIC AND RIDGING
BUILDS ACROSS THE GULF. THE RIDGE WILL SUSTAIN MAINLY A GENTLE TO
MODERATE ANTICYCLONIC FLOW AND MODERATE SEAS INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.
..CARIBBEAN SEA
PLEASE REFER TO THE SPECIAL FEATURES SECTION ON TROPICAL STORM
JERRY LOCATED NEAR THE NORTHERN LEEWARD ISLANDS.
A FRONTAL TROUGH OVER THE SE GULF WATERS IS PRODUCING A FEW
SHOWERS OVER THE NW CARIBBEAN. THE WEAK PRESSURE GRADIENT ACROSS
THE BASIN RESULT IN LIGHT TO GENTLE WINDS AND SLIGHT TO MODERATE
SEAS.
FOR THE FORECAST, TROPICAL STORM JERRY IS NEAR 19.2N 62.5W AT 5 AM EDT,
AND IS MOVING NORTHWEST AT 15 KT. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE 45
KT WITH GUSTS TO 55 KT, AND THE MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1007
MB. JERRY WILL MOVE TO 20.9N 63.3W THIS AFTERNOON, 23.3N 63.4W SAT
MORNING, 25.9N 63.0W SAT AFTERNOON, 28.4N 62.5W SUN MORNING,
30.5N 61.8W SUN AFTERNOON, AND 31.6N 60.3W MON MORNING. JERRY WILL
CHANGE LITTLE IN INTENSITY AS IT MOVES TO THE 31.6N 56.7W EARLY
TUE. FRESH TO STRONG SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL IMPACT THE LEEWARD
ISLANDS AND THE FAR NE CARIBBEAN TODAY. LARGE E SWELL WILL
CONTINUE TO PROPAGATE ACROSS THE CARIBBEAN PASSAGES OF THE LEEWARD
ISLANDS TODAY PRODUCING ROUGH SEAS. E-NE SWELL IS EXPECTED TO
REACH THE ANEGADA PASSAGE EARLY TODAY THROUGH SAT, ALSO PRODUCING
ROUGH SEAS. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BEGIN TO BUILD FROM THE CENTRAL
ATLANTIC TO THE BAHAMAS LATE SUN AND MON TO BRING A RETURN TO
EASTERLY TRADE WINDS ACROSS THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN.
..ATLANTIC OCEAN
PLEASE REFER TO THE SPECIAL FEATURES SECTION ON TROPICAL STORM
JERRY LOCATED NEAR THE NORTHERN LEEWARD ISLANDS.
A STATIONARY FRONT IS ANALYZED OFF NE FLORIDA AND SATELLITE
IMAGERY DEPICT STRONG SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WEST OF 74W,
AFFECTING PARTS OF FLORIDA AND THE NW BAHAMAS. A TIGHTENING
PRESSURE GRADIENT RESULT IN FRESH TO STRONG EASTERLY WINDS NORTH
OF 26N AND WEST OF 70W. SEAS IN THESE WATERS ARE 5-10 FT. FARTHER
EAST, A SURFACE TROUGH IS ALONG 66W AND NORTH OF 23N. SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE FOUND NORTH OF 23N AND
BETWEEN 56W AND 68W.
THE REMAINDER OF THE BASIN IS UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF A 1023 MB
HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM LOCATED IN THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC. MODERATE TO
FRESH EASTERLY WINDS MODERATE TO LOCALLY ROUGH SEAS ARE PRESENT
SOUTH OF 22N AND WEST OF 35W. IN THE FAR EASTERN ATLANTIC,
MODERATE TO LOCALLY STRONG N-NE WINDS AND MODERATE TO LOCALLY
STRONG SEAS ARE FOUND EAST OF 20N AND NORTH OF 20N. ELSEWHERE,
MODERATE OR LIGHTER WINDS AND MODERATE SEAS PREVAIL.
FOR THE FORECAST WEST OF 55W, TROPICAL STORM JERRY IS NEAR 19.2N
62.5W AT 5 AM EDT, AND IS MOVING NORTHWEST AT 15 KT. MAXIMUM
SUSTAINED WINDS ARE 45 KT WITH GUSTS TO 55 KT, AND THE MINIMUM
CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1007 MB. JERRY WILL MOVE TO 20.9N 63.3W THIS
AFTERNOON, 23.3N 63.4W SAT MORNING, 25.9N 63.0W SAT AFTERNOON,
28.4N 62.5W SUN MORNING, 30.5N 61.8W SUN AFTERNOON, AND 31.6N
60.3W MON MORNING. JERRY WILL CHANGE LITTLE IN INTENSITY AS IT
MOVES TO THE 31.6N 56.7W EARLY TUE. AN EXTRATROPICAL LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP OFFSHORE OF NORTH-CENTRAL FLORIDA
TODAY AND MOVE NORTHEASTWARD THROUGH THE WEEKEND. FRESH TO STRONG
E WINDS ARE OCCURRING NORTH OF THE BAHAMAS AND WEST OF 70W. A
FRONTAL TROUGH WILL DEVELOP W OF THE LOW ON SAT ACROSS THE EXTREME
NW WATERS AND NORTH FLORIDA, PRODUCING FRESH TO STRONG N TO NE
WINDS AND BUILDING SEAS ACROSS THE FLORIDA COASTAL WATERS NORTH OF
THE NW BAHAMAS FROM SAT THROUGH SUN MORNING.
DELGADO
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.
Main Text Page