076  
AXNT20 KNHC 261803  
TWDAT  
 
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION  
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL  
203 PM EDT SUN JUN 26 2016  
 
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA, CENTRAL AMERICA  
GULF OF MEXICO, CARIBBEAN SEA, NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH  
AMERICA, AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE  
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE  
IMAGERY, WEATHER OBSERVATIONS, RADAR AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.  
 
BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH  
1745 UTC.  
   
..TROPICAL WAVES
 
 
 
A TROPICAL WAVE IS IN THE EASTERN ATLANTIC WITH AXIS NEAR 28W  
FROM 07N-15N, MOVING W AT 20 KT WITHIN THE LAST 24 HOURS. SAHARAN  
DRY AIR AND DUST ARE WITHIN THE WAVE ENVIRONMENT, THUS INHIBITING  
CONVECTION DEVELOPMENT.  
 
A TROPICAL WAVE IS IN THE SW CARIBBEAN WITH AXIS NEAR 76W S OF  
15N TO INLAND COLOMBIA, MOVING W AT 20 KT WITHIN THE LAST 24  
HOURS. THE WAVE COINCIDES WITH A BROAD INVERTED TROUGH AT 700 MB  
AND A MODERATE MOIST ENVIRONMENT FROM SURFACE TO 850 MB AS SHOWN  
BY CIRA LPW IMAGERY. STRONG DEEP LAYER WIND SHEAR IN THE VICINITY  
OF THE WAVE LIMITS IN PART THE CONVECTION TO ISOLATED SHOWERS S OF  
15N BETWEEN 70W AND 78W.  
   
..ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH
 
 
 
THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS ACROSS AFRICA INTO THE EAST TROPICAL  
ATLANTIC NEAR 10N14W AND THEN CONTINUES ALONG 8N21W TO 6N28W  
WHERE THE ITCZ BEGINS AND THEN EXTENDS TO 7N44W TO 6N57W.  
SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE FROM 4N-10N E OF 24W. SIMILAR SHOWER  
ACTIVITY IS FROM 6N-10N BETWEEN 37W AND 58W.  
   
..DISCUSSION
 
 
GULF OF MEXICO...  
 
THE REMNANTS OF A SURFACE TROUGH CONTINUES TO GENERATE SCATTERED  
SHOWERS AND ISOLATED TSTMS WITHIN 60 NM OFF THE MEXICO EASTERN  
COAST FROM TAMPICO TO VERACRUZ. IN THE CENTRAL GULF, A SURFACE  
TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 28N86W TO 24N90W WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS AND  
TSTMS FROM 24N-28N E OF 91W. OTHERWISE, GENTLE VARIABLE WINDS  
COVER THE BASIN. SURFACE RIDGE WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF  
THE WEEK, EXCEPT FOR THE SW GULF WHERE A WEAK SURFACE HEAT TROUGH  
WILL BE PRESENT.  
 
CARIBBEAN SEA...  
 
AN UPPER LOW CENTERED NE OF PUERTO RICO EXTENDS A TROUGH INTO THE  
NORTH-CENTRAL AND PORTIONS OF THE NW CARIBBEAN. TO THE EAST, AN  
UPPER RIDGE ANCHORED OVER THE WEST TROPICAL ATLANTIC COVERS THE  
SOUTH-CENTRAL AND SE CARIBBEAN. A DIFFLUENT FLOW GENERATED BY  
THESE TWO UPPER FEATURES ALONG WITH SHALLOW MOISTURE SUPPORT  
SCATTERED TO ISOLATED SHOWERS S OF 15N E OF 70W AND ACROSS THE  
LEEWARD ISLANDS. ABUNDANT MOISTURE IN THE SW BASIN ALONG WITH A  
DIVERGENT ENVIRONMENT ALOFT SUPPORT NUMEROUS HEAVY SHOWERS AND  
SCATTERED TSTMS S OF 15N W OF 78W. OTHERWISE, A TROPICAL WAVE IS  
MOVING ACROSS THE SOUTH-CENTRAL BASIN. SEE WAVES SECTION ABOVE FOR  
DETAILS. FRESH TO STRONG TRADES CONTINUE IN THE CENTRAL BASIN  
GENERATED BY A STRONG GRADIENT BETWEEN LOW PRES ASSOCIATED WITH  
THE WAVE IN THE S-SW CARIBBEAN AND HIGH PRES TO THE N-NE. NEAR-  
GALE FORCE WINDS ARE POSSIBLE ALONG THE COAST OF COLOMBIA AND  
ADJACENT WATERS. THESE WINDS WILL CONTINUE BEYOND THE NEXT TWO  
DAYS.  
   
..HISPANIOLA
 
 
 
AN UPPER LEVEL LOW CENTERED NE OF PUERTO RICO EXTENDS A TROUGH SW  
ACROSS HISPANIOLA, WHICH ALONG WITH SHALLOW MOISTURE IN THE TRADE  
WIND FLOW SUPPORT ISOLATED SHOWERS MAINLY OVER THE CENTER OF THE  
ISLAND. HE UPPER TROUGH WILL MOVE EAST OF THE AREA EARLY MONDAY  
GIVING THE ISLAND WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT. THE EASTERLY TRADE WINDS  
COUPLED WITH DAYTIME HEATING WILL CONTINUE TO GENERATE  
AFTERNOON/EVENING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE ISLAND  
THROUGH THE FIRST OF THE WEEK.  
 
ATLANTIC OCEAN...  
 
AN UPPER LEVEL LOW AND ASSOCIATED TROUGH OVER THE NW ATLC WATERS  
SUPPORT A COLD FRONT THAT STARTS TO DIP IN THE SW N ATLC WATERS  
ALONG 30N72W TO W-SW TO 30N81W. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND TSTMS ARE  
WITHIN 200 NM AHEAD OF THE FRONT. BROAD HIGH PRESSURE PREVAILS ELSEWHERE ACROSS  
THE BASIN BEING ANCHORED BY A 1038 MB HIGH N-NW OF THE AZORES  
NEAR 43N31W. THE SURFACE RIDGE WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF  
THE WEEK. THE FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO SINK SOUTH INTO THE SW N ATLC  
WATERS LATER TODAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT WHERE IT WILL DISSIPATE. A  
WEAK LOW PRESSURE MAY DEVELOP ALONG THE FRONT BEFORE IT  
DISSIPATES.  
 
FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT  
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE  
 

 
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