912  
AXNT20 KNHC 241156  
TWDAT  
 
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION  
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL  
805 AM EDT WED AUG 24 2016  
 
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA, CENTRAL AMERICA  
GULF OF MEXICO, CARIBBEAN SEA, NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH  
AMERICA, AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE  
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE  
IMAGERY, WEATHER OBSERVATIONS, RADAR AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.  
 
BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH  
1115 UTC.  
   
..SPECIAL FEATURES
 
 
TROPICAL STORM GASTON IS CENTERED NEAR 14.9N 38.6W AT 24/0900  
UTC OR ABOUT 850 NM WEST OF THE CABO VERDE ISLANDS MOVING WEST-  
NORTHWEST AT 15 KT. ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 999  
MB. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WIND SPEED IS 60 KT WITH GUSTS TO 75 KT.  
SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS FROM 13N-17N  
BETWEEN 35W-40W. CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION ARE  
FROM 15N-20N BETWEEN 39W-43W. PLEASE SEE THE LATEST NHC  
INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS  
MIATCPAT2/WTNT32 KNHC AND THE FULL FORECAST/ADVISORY UNDER THE  
AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIATCPAT2/WTNT22 KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS.  
 
A TROPICAL WAVE MOVING ACROSS THE LESSER ANTILLES IS ANALYZED  
FROM 21N66W ALONG 18N63W THROUGH A 1009 MB LOW NEAR 17N61W TO  
12N59W. THIS SYSTEM COULD BECOME A TROPICAL DEPRESSION DURING  
THE NEXT DAY OR TWO AS IT MOVES WEST-NORTHWEST 13 TO 17 KT.  
CONDITIONS COULD BECOME MORE CONDUCIVE LATER THIS WEEK WHILE THE  
SYSTEM MOVES NEAR THE SOUTHEASTERN AND CENTRAL BAHAMAS.  
SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS FROM 15N-18N  
BETWEEN 60W-64W. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE ISOLATED  
THUNDERSTORMS ARE FROM 17N-21N BETWEEN 56W-67W. THERE IS A  
MEDIUM CHANCE OF TROPICAL FORMATION IN THE NEXT 48 HOURS.  
INTERESTS FROM THE ISLANDS OF THE NORTHEASTERN CARIBBEAN SEA TO  
THE BAHAMAS SHOULD CONTINUE TO MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF THIS  
SYSTEM. GUSTY WINDS, HEAVY RAINS, AND POSSIBLE FLASH FLOODS AND  
MUD SLIDES COULD OCCUR OVER PORTIONS OF THESE AREAS REGARDLESS  
OF TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION.  
   
..TROPICAL WAVES
 
 
SEE ABOVE.  
   
..ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH
 
 
THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS ACROSS AFRICA INTO THE EAST TROPICAL  
ATLANTIC NEAR 18N16W AND CONTINUES ALONG 14N21W TO 14N27W. THE  
ITCZ BEGINS NEAR 6N44W AND CONTINUES ALONG 5N49W TO SOUTH  
AMERICA NEAR 6N58W. THE MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ CONTINUES TO BE  
DISRUPTED BY TROPICAL STORM GASTON. CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED  
MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION ARE FROM 5N-10N EAST OF  
17W TO INLAND OVER WEST AFRICA.  
   
..DISCUSSION
 
 
GULF OF MEXICO...  
 
A BROAD UPPER RIDGE IS ANCHORED OVER THE CENTRAL MISSISSIPPI  
COVERING THE GULF WATERS NORTH OF 26N. AN ELONGATED UPPER TROUGH  
IS CENTERED IN THE NORTHWEST CARIBBEAN AND EXTENDS AN UPPER  
TROUGH ACROSS THE YUCATAN PENINSULA TO THE COAST OF MEXICO NEAR  
23N98W GENERATING SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS  
IN THE SOUTHWEST GULF SOUTH OF 21N BETWEEN 93W-97W. A SURFACE  
TROUGH IS IN THE EAST GULF EXTENDING FROM 29N85W TO 25N83W  
GENERATING SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WITHIN  
120/150 NM WEST OF THE SURFACE TROUGH. SIMILAR SHOWERS AND  
THUNDERSTORMS ARE WITHIN 45 NM EITHER SIDE OF THE FLORIDA KEYS.  
A SURFACE RIDGE EXTENDS FROM OVER THE SOUTHEAST CONUS TO OVER  
THE GULF ANCHORED BY A 1026 MB HIGH IN THE NORTHWEST ATLANTIC.  
THIS SURFACE RIDGE WILL SHIFT NORTH OF THE GULF LATER TODAY  
WITH THE PRESSURE GRADIENT TIGHTENING ACROSS THE NORTHEAST  
GULF WATERS BRIEFLY TONIGHT.  
 
CARIBBEAN SEA...  
 
THE PRIMARY CONCERN THIS MORNING IS THE TROPICAL WAVE/LOW MOVING  
THROUGH THE LESSER ANTILLES. PLEASE SEE THE SPECIAL FEATURES  
SECTION ABOVE FOR THE ACTIVITY ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SYSTEM OVER  
THE EAST CARIBBEAN. AN ELONGATED UPPER LOW IS CENTERED IN THE  
NORTHWEST CARIBBEAN NEAR 17N85W AND EXTENDS AN UPPER TROUGH  
NORTHWEST ACROSS THE YUCATAN PENINSULA INTO THE GULF OF MEXICO  
AND SOUTHEAST TO THE GULF OF URABA. CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED  
SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE WITHIN 90 NM OF A LINE  
FROM 17N73W TO THE YUCATAN CHANNEL NEAR 22N86W AND IN THE  
SOUTHWEST CARIBBEAN SOUTH OF 12N BETWEEN COLOMBIA AND COSTA  
RICA. THIS IS LEAVING THE REMAINDER OF THE BASIN WITH FAIR  
WEATHER THIS MORNING. FRESH TRADE WINDS WILL DEVELOP ACROSS THE  
EAST AND CENTRAL CARIBBEAN TONIGHT AND CONTINUE THROUGH  
SATURDAY. STRONG NORTHEAST WINDS ARE EXPECTED ALONG THE  
NORTHWEST COAST OF COLOMBIA TONIGHT. THE SPECIAL FEATURES LOW  
AND TROPICAL WAVE WILL TRACK NORTHWEST THROUGH THE BAHAMA CHAIN  
BEFORE REACHING THE NORTHWEST BAHAMAS LATE IN THE WEEKEND.  
   
..HISPANIOLA
 
 
CURRENTLY SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE OVER THE SOUTHWEST  
PENINSULA OF HAITI. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ASSOCIATED WITH  
THE TROPICAL WAVE AND LOW MOVING THROUGH THE LESSER ANTILLES,  
SEE SPECIAL FEATURES ABOVE, ARE APPROACHING THE EASTERN PORTION  
OF THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC THIS MORNING AND SPREAD WESTWARD  
THROUGHOUT THE DAY. THE LOW IS EXPECTED TO BE NORTH OF THE MONA  
PASSAGE LATE TONIGHT THEN NORTHWEST OF HAITI BY LATE THURSDAY  
NIGHT, BUT COULD STILL PRODUCE GUSTY WINDS, HEAVY RAINS, AND  
POSSIBLE FLASH FLOODS AND MUD SLIDES OVER PORTIONS OF THE  
ISLAND.  
 
ATLANTIC OCEAN...  
 
THE PRIMARY CONCERN FOR THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC THIS MORNING IS  
TROPICAL STORM GASTON AND THE POSSIBLE DEVELOPMENT OF THE LOW  
AND TROPICAL WAVE IN THE SPECIAL FEATURES SECTION ABOVE. THE  
UPPER RIDGE OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO EXTENDS A RIDGE AXIS ACROSS  
SOUTH GEORGIA/NORTHEAST FLORIDA AND INTO THE WEST ATLANTIC TO  
29N75W. THE UPPER TROUGH OVER THE SOUTH GULF OF MEXICO EXTENDS A  
TROUGH AXIS FROM THE STRAITS OF FLORIDA ACROSS THE BAHAMAS TO  
26N74W. THIS IS CREATING A DIFFLUENT ENVIRONMENT TO GENERATE  
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS FROM 23N-30N WEST  
OF 75W. AN UPPER TROUGH NORTH OF 30N IS SUPPORTING A STATIONARY  
FRONT THAT EXTENDS THROUGH 32N66W TO 30N72W WITH SCATTERED  
SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WITHIN 60 NM EITHER SIDE OF  
THE FRONT AND CONTINUES TO 29N75W. A 1016 MB LOW, THE REMNANTS  
OF FIONA, IS CENTERED NEAR 27N66W AND COUPLED WITH DIFFLUENT  
FLOW FROM A SECOND UPPER RIDGE IS GENERATING SCATTERED SHOWERS  
AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WITHIN 75 NM OF A LINE FROM 27N69W TO  
BEYOND 32N62W. AN UPPER LOW IS OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC NEAR  
27N50W IS SUPPORTING A SURFACE TROUGH THAT EXTENDS FROM 30N47W  
TO 25N49W AND IS GENERATING SCATTERED SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE  
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS FROM 25N-31N BETWEEN 44W-50W. THE  
REMAINDER OF THE BASIN EAST OF 60W IS DOMINATED BY A SURFACE  
RIDGE ANCHORED BY A 1026 MB HIGH NEAR THE AZORES AND A 1024 MB  
HIGH NEAR 34N48W. THE SPECIAL FEATURES LOW AND TROPICAL WAVE  
WILL TRACK NORTHWEST THROUGH THE BAHAMA CHAIN BEFORE REACHING  
THE NORTHWEST BAHAMAS LATE IN THE WEEKEND. TROPICAL STORM GASTON  
IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN EAST OF 60W AS IT TRACKS NORTHWEST  
BEFORE TURNING NORTHWARD LATE IN THE WEEKEND.  
 
FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT  
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE  
 

 
 
PAW  
 
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.

The Nexlab TPC Page Main Text Page