269
AXUS74 KJAN 221657
DGTJAN
MSC001-007-011-015-021-023-025-029-031-035-037-049-051-053-055-063-
067-075-077-079-083-087-089-091-099-101-103-121-125-127-133-149-151-
157-163-LAC025-029-035-041-065-083-107-ARC017-041-2600000-
DROUGHT INFORMATION STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON, MS
1057 AM CST THU DEC 22 2016
..DROUGHT CONTINUES TO SUBSIDE DUE TO RECENT RAINFALL
SYNOPSIS...
ACCORDING TO THE LATEST U.S. DROUGHT MONITOR (USDM), VALID TUESDAY
DECEMBER 20 2016, SEVERE DROUGHT (D2) CONDITIONS ARE NOW LIMITED TO
PORTIONS OF EAST MISSISSIPPI MAINLY EAST OF A LINE FROM SHUBUTA TO
MORTON TO CARTHAGE TO NOXAPATER TO STARKVILLE. SURROUNDING THIS,
MODERATE DROUGHT (D1) CONDITIONS REMAIN NORTH OF A LINE FROM
HARRISONBURG LA TO CRYSTAL SPRINGS TO LAUREL. ACROSS THE REMAINDER
OF SOUTH MISSISSIPPI AND CENTRAL LOUISIANA, ABNORMALLY DRY (D0)
CONDITIONS EXIST. FOR MORE DETAILS, REFER TO THE U.S. DROUGHT
MONITOR WEBPAGE LINKED AT THE BOTTOM OF THIS PRODUCT.
SUMMARY OF IMPACTS...
THE GROWING SEASON HAS ENDED, THUS AGRICULTURAL IMPACTS RELATING TO
DROUGHT ARE LIMITED ACROSS THE AREA. RAINFALL OVER THE PAST MONTH
HAS BENEFITED COOL SEASON GRASSES AND TREES.
IN SPITE OF RECENT RAINFALL LEADING TO IMPROVEMENTS IN SOIL
MOISTURE, IT REMAINS BELOW NORMAL ACROSS THE ENTIRE AREA,
PARTICULARLY OVER EASTERN MISSISSIPPI. HOWEVER, MORE FREQUENT
RAINFALL CONTINUES TO LEAD TO GRADUAL IMPROVEMENTS, AND AREA PONDS
CONTINUE TO STEADILY REFILL.
ALL BURN BANS THAT WERE PREVIOUSLY IN EFFECT HAVE EITHER EXPIRED OR
BEEN CANCELED. KEETCH-BYRAM DROUGHT INDEX (KBDI) VALUES ARE BELOW
200 ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA, INDICATING WET FUELS UNLIKELY TO
CONTRIBUTE TO FIRE INTENSITY. INDICES BETWEEN 200 TO 400 REMAIN OVER
PORTIONS OF SOUTH AND EAST MISSISSIPPI, WHICH IS STILL SOMEWHAT
ABOVE NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR.
CLIMATE SUMMARY...
RAINFALL TOTALS OVER THE LAST WEEK AVERAGED BETWEEN 0.5 AND 1.5
INCHES, WITH LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS OVER 2 INCHES FROM NEAR VALLEY
PARK TO LEXINGTON AND LOCALLY LOWER AMOUNTS LESS THAN A HALF INCH
FROM BOGUE CHITTO TO MERIDIAN AND ACROSS NORTHEAST LOUISIANA AND
SOUTHEAST ARKANSAS. 30 DAY RAINFALL AMOUNTS ARE NEAR TO ABOVE NORMAL
ACROSS THE AREA, WITH THE GREATEST SURPLUS IN A CORRIDOR FROM AROUND
ALEXANDRIA LA THROUGH YAZOO CITY TO ACKERMAN. HOWEVER, DEFICITS
REMAIN ACROSS THE ENTIRE AREA ON THE 90 DAY TIME SCALE, WITH MOST OF
THE REGION STILL 4 TO 8 INCHES BELOW NORMAL. THIS SUGGESTS THAT IF
WE DON'T CONTINUE TO RECEIVE NEAR TO ABOVE NORMAL RAINFALL,
CONDITIONS IN SOME LOCATIONS COULD DETERIORATE FAIRLY QUICKLY AGAIN.
RAINFALL DEPARTURE RAINFALL DEPARTURE
LOCATION YEAR TO DATE FROM NORMAL 12/1 TO DATE FROM NORMAL
JACKSON JAN 62.15 +9.57 4.50 +0.91
MERIDIAN MEI 44.59 -10.08 2.76 -0.81
TALLULAH/ 59.82 +6.68 5.00 +0.99
VICKSBURG TVR
HATTIESBURG HBG 60.88 +3.26 4.03 +0.67
GREENWOOD GWO 46.75 -3.37 3.94 -0.06
GREENVILLE GLH 49.32 -1.74 2.06 -1.98
PRECIPITATION/TEMPERATURE OUTLOOK...
RAIN CHANCES OVER THE NEXT WEEK WILL BE GREATEST OVER THE
NORTHWESTERN PORTION OF THE AREA, WITH A QUICK MOVING SYSTEM
CLIPPING THE AREA FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY. SUNDAY NIGHT INTO
EARLY NEXT WEEK, A FRONT IS EXPECTED TO STALL JUST WEST OF THE AREA
THEN MAKE SLOW PROGRESS INTO THE REGION. THIS WILL PROVIDE RAIN
CHANCES OVER MULTIPLE DAYS. THE LATEST WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER 7
DAY RAINFALL FORECAST RANGES FROM AROUND 1.5 INCHES IN THE ARKLAMISS
DELTA TO LESS THAN A QUARTER INCHES ALONG THE I-59 CORRIDOR.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE GENERALLY ABOVE NORMAL OVER THE WEEK.
BEYOND THE UPCOMING WEEK, THERE ARE GREATER CHANCES FOR...
TEMPERATURES PRECIPITATION
8 TO 14 DAY OUTLOOK ABOVE NORMAL NORMAL/ABV NORMAL
EXPERIMENTAL 3-4 WEEK OUTLOOK ABOVE NORMAL EQ CHC/ABV NORMAL
ONE MONTH OUTLOOK (JANUARY) EQ CHC/ABV NORMAL EQ CHC/BLW NORMAL
THREE MONTH OUTLOOK (NOV-JAN) ABOVE NORMAL EQ CHC/BLW NORMAL
HYDROLOGIC SUMMARY AND OUTLOOK...
STREAMFLOW CONDITIONS REMAIN BELOW NORMAL TO WELL BELOW NORMAL ON
RIVERS IN CENTRAL AND EAST MISSISSIPPI INCLUDING THE PEARL RIVER,
LEAF RIVER, HOMOCHITTO RIVER, AND CHICKASAWHAY RIVER BASINS.
HOWEVER, NEAR NORMAL STREAMFLOWS ARE BEING OBSERVED ALONG THE BIG
BLACK, YAZOO, SUNFLOWER, AND TENSAS BASINS. OVER THE NEXT WEEK,
CONTINUED IMPROVEMENT IN STREAMFLOW IS EXPECTED ACROSS THE
NORTHWESTERN HALF OF THE AREA, WITH BELOW NORMAL STREAMFLOWS
REMAINING OVER SOUTH AND EAST PORTIONS OF THE AREA.
AT ROSS BARNETT RESERVOIR NEAR JACKSON, THE POOL ON DECEMBER 22ND
WAS UP TO 296.32 FEET. THE NORMAL POOL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR IS
297.5 FEET. LEVELS WILL CONTINUE TO SLOWLY RISE ON THE RESERVOIR
OVER THE UPCOMING WEEK.
AT GRENADA LAKE NEAR GRENADA, THE POOL ON DECEMBER 22ND WAS 194.31
FEET AND FALLING. LEVELS WILL CONTINUE TO FALL AS THE CORPS OF
ENGINEERS LOWERS THE POOL TO THE WINTER OPERATING STAGE OF 193 FEET.
AT OKATIBBEE LAKE NEAR MERIDIAN, THE POOL ON DECEMBER 22ND WAS
338.92 FEET AND STEADY. THE CURRENT POOL READING IS VERY CLOSE TO
THE WINTER OPERATING POOL OF 339 FEET.
NEXT ISSUANCE DATE...
THE NEXT DROUGHT STATEMENT WILL LIKELY BE ISSUED WITHIN THE NEXT TWO
WEEKS.
RELATED WEB SITES...
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON, MS: WEATHER.GOV/JAN
NATIONAL INTEGRATED DROUGHT INFORMATION SYSTEM: WWW.DROUGHT.GOV
U.S. DROUGHT MONITOR: DROUGHTMONITOR.UNL.EDU
DROUGHT IMPACT REPORTER: WWW.DROUGHTREPORTER.UNL.EDU
CLIMATE PREDICTION CENTER: WWW.CPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV
LA OFFICE OF STATE CLIMATOLOGY: WWW.LOSC.LSU.EDU
LSU AG CENTER: WWW.LSUAGCENTER.COM
UNITED STATES GEOLOGICAL SURVEY: HTTP://WATER.USGS.GOV
LA DEPARTMENT OF AGRICULTURE AND FORESTRY BURN BANS:
WWW.LDAF.STATE.LA.US/PROGRAMS/PARISH-BURN-BANS/
ARKANSAS BURN BANS: WWW.ARKFIREINFO.ORG
MISSISSIPPI BURN BANS: WWW.MFC.MS.GOV/BURN-BANS
MISSISSIPPI STATE CLIMATOLOGIST: GEOSCIENCES.MSSTATE.EDU/STATE-CLIMATOLOGIST/
ACKNOWLEDGMENTS...
THE U.S. DROUGHT MONITOR IS A FACILITATED COLLABORATION AMONG
VARIOUS AGENCIES WHICH INCLUDES THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE, STATE
CLIMATOLOGISTS, THE CLIMATE PREDICTION CENTER, AND THE U.S.
DROUGHT MITIGATION CENTER. INFORMATION FOR THIS STATEMENT HAS BEEN
GATHERED FROM NWS/FAA OBSERVATION SITES, THE USDA, THE U.S.
ARMY CORPS OF ENGINEERS, USGS, FORESTRY INTERESTS IN MISSISSIPPI,
ARKANSAS, AND LOUISIANA.
QUESTIONS OR COMMENTS...
IF YOU HAVE ANY QUESTIONS ABOUT INFORMATION ON THIS STATEMENT,
PLEASE CONTACT:
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECAST OFFICE 234 WEATHER SERVICE DRIVE
JACKSON, MS 39232
PHONE: (601)936-2189
EMAIL: MARTY.POPE@NOAA.GOV OR DANIEL.LAMB@NOAA.GOV
DL
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