137  
FXUS64 KLZK 131149  
AFDLZK  
 
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION  
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LITTLE ROCK AR  
549 AM CST WED DEC 13 2017  
   
AVIATION
 
 
CLEAR SKIES WILL CONTINUE THROUGH MUCH OF THE PERIOD. AS A COLD  
FRONT APPROACHES TODAY, SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL INCREASE AND BECOME  
GUSTY. GUSTS UP TO 30 KTS ARE EXPECTED IN THE EAST. WINDS SHOULD  
SUBSIDE EARLY THIS EVENING. OTHERWISE, VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED  
THROUGH THE PERIOD.  
 

 
   
PREV DISCUSSION
 
(ISSUED 421 AM CST WED DEC 13 2017)  
SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT  
HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS OVER ARKANSAS AND THE DRY CONDITIONS WILL  
REMAIN OVER THE STATE THROUGH THURSDAY. A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE  
THROUGH THE STATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING AS LOW PRESSURE MOVES  
THROUGH THE MIDWEST. THIS WILL BRING INCREASED SOUTHWEST WINDS TO  
THE STATE AND EXPECT THE HIGHEST WINDS IN THE EAST. A LAKE WIND  
ADVISORY HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR THE EASTERN AND PARTS OF CENTRAL  
COUNTIES THIS AFTERNOON. FIRE DANGER WILL BE ELEVATED THIS  
AFTERNOON. LOWEST HUMIDITY VALUES WILL BE IN THE WEST BUT WINDS  
ARE NOT EXPECTED TO BE AS STRONG HERE. MODELS MAY NOT HAVE A GOOD  
HANDLE ON HOW DRY OUR ATMOSPHERE IS...SO THIS WILL NEED TO BE  
MONITORED CLOSELY. HIGHS TODAY WILL BE IN THE 60S MAINLY AND IN  
THE 40S AND 50S THURSDAY.  
 
LONG TERM...FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY  
THE EXTENDED PERIOD WILL START OFF DRY BUT COOL ON FRIDAY. AIR MASS  
OVER ARKANSAS WILL BONE DRY, WITH DEWPOINTS IN THE 20S. THIS WILL  
KEEP THE FIRE DANGER ELEVATED. FORTUNATELY, THERE WILL BE SOME  
RELIEF THIS WEEKEND.  
 
A TROUGH WILL DIG THROUGH THE ROCKIES AND PLAINS SATURDAY/SUNDAY,  
AND WILL RIDE A NORTHWEST WIND FLOW ALOFT. AS THE TROUGH NEARS,  
MODELS SHOW A SOUTHWEST SYSTEM EJECTING TOWARD US AHEAD OF THE  
TROUGH, WITH SOME MOISTURE INCREASE. GRANTED, THIS WILL NOT BE  
TROPICAL BY ANY MEANS, WITH DEWPOINTS GETTING INTO THE 40S TO LOWER  
50S OVER THE SOUTHEAST HALF OF THE STATE. CLOUDS WILL INCREASE, AND  
THERE ARE GOOD CHANCES OF SHOWERS IN THE FORECAST.  
 
RAINFALL SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY COULD BE IN THE HALF INCH TO INCH  
RANGE FROM LITTLE ROCK TO THE SOUTH/EAST. LESSER AMOUNTS ARE  
EXPECTED FARTHER NORTH/WEST.  
 
WHILE THIS EVENT WILL NOT BE A WIDESPREAD HEAVY RAIN MAKER, AT LEAST  
THERE WILL BE SOME LIQUID. DROUGHT CONDITIONS CONTINUE TO SLOWLY  
WORSEN FOLLOWING ONE OF THE DRIEST FALLS ON RECORD.  
 
AFTER THIS WEEKEND, AND FOLLOWING THE PASSAGE OF THE SYSTEM, IT WILL  
BE BACK TO A MOSTLY DRY FORECAST. IT WILL NOT COOL OFF BEHIND THE  
SYSTEM. IF ANYTHING, READINGS WILL BE A LITTLE ABOVE AVERAGE EARLY  
NEXT WEEK.  
 

 
   
LZK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
 
 
LAKE WIND ADVISORY FROM NOON TODAY TO 6 PM CST THIS EVENING FOR  
ARKANSAS-DESHA-INDEPENDENCE-JACKSON-JEFFERSON-LINCOLN-LONOKE-  
MONROE-PRAIRIE-WHITE-WOODRUFF.  
 

 
 

 
 
AVIATION...51  
 
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