452
FXUS64 KLZK 031920
AFDLZK
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LITTLE ROCK AR
220 PM CDT THU JUL 3 2008
DISCUSSION
AFTERNOON CONVECTION SPOTTY OVER AR...WITH SHEARED UPPER ENERGY
WEAKENING...AS THE UPPER TROUGH MOVES EAST. A SMALL AREA OF
CONVECTION WAS OVER SOUTH AR DUE TO HEATING AND CONVERGENT
FLOW...AND WEAK UPPER ENERGY. THE PREFRONTAL TROUGH HAS DISSIPATED
OVER CENTRAL AR. TEMPS WHERE WARMING TO AROUND TO LOWER 90S...AND
MORE POP UP CONVECTION WILL BE POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON TO EARLY
EVENING. THE COLD FRONT WAS OVER CENTRAL MO...AND AT THIS TIME NOT
DEVELOPING MUCH CONVECTION...BUT SHOULD PICK UP THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON HEATING. THE UPPER LEVEL ENERGY CONTINUED TO SHEAR OUT
OVER SOUTHERN MO TO AR. MOIST AND UNSTABLE AIRMASS REMAINS OVER AR
WITH DEW POINT TEMPS IN THE UPPER 60S...PRECIP WATER VALUES OVER AN
INCH...AND LI VALUES -3 TO -5. A WEAK SOUTHWEST LOW LEVEL JET WAS
ALSO NOTED AT 2K TO 5K FT AROUND 20 KNTS.
SHORT TERM
TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT
EXPECT AFTERNOON TO EARLY EVENING ISOLATED CONVECTION OVER
AR...ESPECIALLY SOUTH AND NORTH...SO WILL HAVE EVENING PERIOD TO
COVER THIS. SHORT RANGE MODELS DO INDICATE THE SHEARED LIFT...THEN
SOME POSSIBLE IN THE NORTHWEST FLOW...TO DRIFT OVER AR. ALSO THE
WEAKENING FRONT IS FORECAST TO SAG SOUTH TO CENTRAL AR FRIDAY
MORNING...AND SHOULD BE THE FOCUS OF CONVECTION. SOME UNCERTAINTY
IN AMOUNT AND COVERAGE OF CONVECTION...AS WELL AS QPF AMOUNTS.
HAVE USED CHANCE POPS TO SLIGHT FOR THE ENTIRE STATE. THREAT FOR
ANY SEVERE STORMS REMAIN LOW WITH LIMITED LIFT. INTO SATURDAY...
THE BOUNDARY IS EXPECTED TO WASH OUT OVER AR...BUT MODELS DO SHOW
SOME POSSIBLE ENERGY IN THE NW UPPER FLOW...SO POPS HAVE BEEN HELD
INTO SATURDAY. THE CHANCE OF RAIN SHOULD END SATURDAY LATE EVENING
AS THE UPPER RIDGE BUILDS IN FOR SUNDAY. HOT AND DRY FOR SUNDAY
AND MONDAY.
LONG TERM
TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY
A SUMMER LIKE PATTERN WILL BE IN PLACE FOR THE LONG TERM. AN UPPER
LEVEL RIDGE WILL RETURN TO THE REGION...WITH DIURNAL PRECIPITATION
EXPECTED EACH DAY. A FEW DISTURBANCE WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA
DURING THE LONG TERM...KEEPING SLIGHT POPS IN THE FORECAST THROUGH
THURSDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL BE NEAR NORMAL THROUGH THE LONG
TERM...WITH HIGHS IN THE LOWER 90S AND LOWS IN THE UPPER 60S TO
LOWER 70S.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
BATESVILLE AR 69 88 67 88 / 50 50 40 20
CAMDEN AR 70 92 71 92 / 20 30 30 30
HARRISON AR 67 85 64 88 / 60 40 30 20
HOT SPRINGS AR 70 90 70 90 / 30 50 40 30
LITTLE ROCK AR 70 90 69 89 / 40 50 50 30
MONTICELLO AR 70 92 71 91 / 20 30 40 30
MOUNT IDA AR 70 89 69 91 / 30 50 40 20
MOUNTAIN HOME AR 68 86 65 87 / 60 40 30 20
NEWPORT AR 70 88 67 88 / 50 50 40 30
PINE BLUFF AR 70 92 70 90 / 30 40 40 30
RUSSELLVILLE AR 69 88 67 89 / 40 50 40 20
SEARCY AR 70 89 68 88 / 50 50 50 30
STUTTGART AR 70 91 70 89 / 40 50 50 30
LZK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
SHORT TERM...59 / LONG TERM...60
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