575
FXUS64 KLZK 072009
AFDLZK
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LITTLE ROCK AR
209 PM CST SAT NOV 7 2009
DISCUSSION
MAIN CONCERNS THIS FORECAST CYCLE REMAIN MONDAY AND TUESDAY WITH
THE INFLUENCE OF THE GULF LOW...IDA...AND A COLD FRONT ON ARKANSAS
WEATHER.
THIS MORNING DID SEE STRATUS CLOUDS OVER SOUTHWEST TO CENTRAL
PARTS OF AR...AND WITH CONTINUED SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST FLOW AND
MOISTURE INFLUX...EXPECT A SIMILAR RESULT SUNDAY MORNING. DEW
POINT TEMPS HAVE INCREASED OVER THE AREA WITH THE UPPER 50S OVER
THE SOUTH...WHILE AROUND 50 NORTH. MORNING SOUNDING DID INDICATE
TRAPPED MOISTURE BELOW THE INVERSION...WITH AREAS OF MIST AND
LIGHT FOG BEING SEEN THIS MORNING. EXPECT MORE TO FORM OVERNIGHT...
BUT MAY NOT BE WIDESPREAD ENOUGH TO MENTION. STRATUS CLOUDS DID
THIN AROUND NOON TODAY...LEAVING A SUNNY SKY. ALSO AT THE
SURFACE...A COLD FRONT WAS LOCATED OVER CENTRAL KS TO SE IA. THE
UPPER RIDGE HAS FLATTENED ACROSS THE U.S. WITH A ZONAL FLOW. TS
IDA WAS OVER THE SOUTHERN CARB SEA...AND FORECAST TO MOVE NORTHWARD.
SHORT TERM
TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT
WILL FORECAST THE STRATUS CLOUDS TO FORM AGAIN TONIGHT OVER
SOUTHWEST TO CENTRAL PARTS OF AR...BUT WILL HOLD OFF WITH FOG.
CLOUDS GRADUALLY INCREASE SUNDAY TO SUNDAY NIGHT...AS MOISTURE
STREAMS IN FROM THE GULF WITH THE SURFACE LOW INITIALLY...THEN AS
TS IDA MOVES CLOSER TO THE COAST. PRECIP CHANCES MAKE IT IN THE
FORECAST AFTER SUNSET SUNDAY...INITIALLY OVER THE FAR SOUTH...THEN
SPREADING A BIT MORE NORTH TO CENTRAL AR BY MONDAY AM. GFS AND
ECMWF ARE COMING IN PRETTY GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE INITIAL GULF
LOW REACHING THE GULF COASTAL STATES 12Z MONDAY...WHILE IDA
REMAINS MUCH FARTHER TO THE SOUTHEAST. THEY ALSO MOVE THE LOW OFF
TO THE EAST PROGRESSIVELY LIMITING THE IMPACT ON AR. THE MAIN
FOCUS WILL BE SOUTHERN AND SOUTHEASTERN AREAS...WITH THE GREATEST
CHANCES OF RAIN AND RAIN AMOUNTS. UNCERTAINTY STILL REMAINS IN THE
EXACT MOVEMENT OF THE LOW AND FORECASTS COULD CHANGE SOME WITH
LATER MODEL RUNS. LATER TUESDAY...THE COLD FRONT FROM THE PLAINS
MOVES THROUGH AR...WITH A SLIGHT CHANCE OF RAIN. THEN HIGH
PRESSURE WITH COOLER AND DRIER CONDITIONS FILTER INTO THE AREA.
LONG TERM
WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY
FORECAST SCENARIO PROJECTS A FRONTAL SYSTEM TO APPROACH THE MID
SOUTH LATE IN THIS PERIOD. AT THIS TIME...FORECAST PARCEL
TRAJECTORIES DO NOT POINT TOWARDS A LARGE AMOUNT OF AVAILABLE
MOISTURE WITH THIS SYSTEM. MOISTURE TRANSPORT MAY BE AFFECTED BY
THE PATH OF T.S. IDA...WHILE FUTURE FORECASTS WILL NEED TO
MONITOR THIS SYSTEM CLOSELY.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
BATESVILLE AR 51 74 51 70 / 0 0 10 10
CAMDEN AR 52 75 54 70 / 0 10 20 30
HARRISON AR 52 75 50 72 / 0 0 10 10
HOT SPRINGS AR 51 75 53 71 / 0 0 10 10
LITTLE ROCK AR 52 75 53 70 / 0 0 10 20
MONTICELLO AR 50 74 54 69 / 0 0 20 40
MOUNT IDA AR 50 75 52 72 / 0 10 10 10
MOUNTAIN HOME AR 51 75 50 71 / 0 0 10 10
NEWPORT AR 51 74 52 70 / 0 0 10 10
PINE BLUFF AR 51 75 54 70 / 0 0 10 30
RUSSELLVILLE AR 50 74 51 71 / 0 0 10 10
SEARCY AR 52 74 52 70 / 0 0 10 10
STUTTGART AR 52 74 53 70 / 0 0 10 20
LZK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
SHORT TERM...60 / LONG TERM...55
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