630
FXUS64 KLZK 091139
AFDLZK
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LITTLE ROCK AR
539 AM CST TUE FEB 9 2010
AVIATION
ALTHOUGH SNOW FLURRIES MAY LINGER OVER EAST ARKANSAS...NO OTHER
WINTRY PRECIP IS EXPECTED. CLOUD COVER WILL CONTINUE TO DETERIORATE
THROUGH THE MORNING...WITH VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE
REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD. GUSTY NORTHWESTERLY WINDS WILL PICK UP
BEHIND THE DEPARTING SYSTEM...WITH WINDS GUSTING TO NEAR 25 KTS
THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. WINDS WILL BEGIN TO SUBSIDE AFTER SUNSET WITH
NO RESTRICTIONS TO AVIATION ANTICIPATED.
PREV DISCUSSION
/ISSUED 440 AM CST TUE FEB 9 2010/
SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT
LAST OF THE WINTRY PRECIP NOTED OVR ERN AR EARLY THIS MNRG. ACTIVITY
ASSOCD WITH DEPARTING UPR LVL TROF. BASED ON CURRENT RADAR TRENDS...
PLAN TO CANCEL WINTER WX HEADLINES WITH THIS FCST PACKAGE.
MEANWHILE...MUCH COLDER AIR WL CONT TO FILTER INTO THE REGION TODAY
ON GUSTY NWLY WINDS. THE LEADING EDGE OF THE COLDER AIR WAS SLOLY
WORKING THRU THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF NWRN AR ATTM...WHERE READINGS
HAVE QUICKLY FALLEN INTO THE TEENS AND 20S. ELSEWHERE...TEMPS WERE
IN THE 30S. WL INDC HIGH TEMPS WL OCCUR EARLY IN THE DAY OVR CNTRL
AND ERN AR. MAIN HIGHLIGHT TODAY WL BE THE COLDER AND BLUSTERY
CONDS. FCST WIND CHILL VALUES RMN IN THE SINGLE DIGITS OVR NRN AR
THRU THE MRNG AND IN THE TEENS MOST AREAS THIS AFTN.
CLOUDS WL DCRS OVR MUCH OF THE AREA THIS MRNG. HOWEVER...A NRN
STREAM UPR LVL LOW WL DROP SEWD AND BRING INCRSG LOW CLOUDS TO PARTS
OF NRN AND ERN AR. CANNOT RULE OUT A FEW FLURRIES AS WELL. HIGH PRES
WL SETTLE IN THE MID SOUTH THRU THU. WINDS WL DIMINISH STARTING
TNGT...WITH BLW NORMAL TEMPS EXPECTED. PREFER THE COLDER NAM TEMPS
THRU THE PD WITH THE RESIDUAL SNOW COVER EXPECTED TO RMN OVR NRN AND
CNTRL AR FOR THE NEXT FEW DAYS. WL HAVE TO MONITOR FOR FRZG FOG
FORMATION WED NGT AS THE SFC RDG SETTLES OVR THE REGION.
SRN STREAM WL RMN ACTIVE LATER IN THE WEEK. ANOTHER STORM SYS IS
FCST TO PASS S OF THE REGION. THE NAM IS MUCH SLOWER THAN THE GFS
REGARDING PRECIP ONSET ACRS SWRN AR THU AND THU NGT. OPTED TO CONT
USING A BLEND OF THE MODELS AND STAY CLOSE TO GOING FCST TRENDS.
PRECIP CHCS WL INCRS FM THE SW THU AFTN AND CONT THRU THU NGT AND
EARLY FRI. HIGHEST POPS WL CONT TO BE OVR SRN AR. LOOKING AT MAINLY
SNOW ACRS THE AREA...WITH A RAIN/SNOW MIX MAINLY OVR SRN AR THU AND
EARLY THU NGT. PRECIP WL TAPER OFF FM THE W FRI AS SYS SHIFTS EWD.
LOOKING AT LGT SNOWFALL AMOUNTS FM THIS SYS...DUE TO LESS MOISTURE
TO WORK WITH.
LONG TERM...SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY
SATURDAY WILL BE THE CLOSEST TO NORMAL TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE
WEEK...WITH TEMPS FALLING ONCE AGAIN THROUGH THE WEEKEND AS
NORTHWEST FLOW SETS UP AND ALLOWS FOR COLDER AIR TO SEEP BACK INTO
THE MID SOUTH. MODELS SHOW A STORM SYSTEM DEVELOPING JUST WEST OF
THE GREAT LAKES...AND DIPPING SOUTH TO ALLOW THE NEXT FRONTAL
BOUNDARY TO MOVE THROUGH SUNDAY. THE GFS IS MUCH FASTER THAN THE
ECMWF AT THIS POINT...WITH THE ECMWF LAGGING 12 HOURS BEHIND. KEPT
SLIGHT POPS IN FOR NOW...WITH CLEARING ONCE AGAIN BY EARLY NEXT
WEEK. TEMPS WILL BE BELOW NORMAL THROUGH THE LONG TERM...WITH HIGHS
GENERALLY IN THE 40S AND LOWS IN THE 20S.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
BATESVILLE AR 28 17 33 20 / 10 10 0 10
CAMDEN AR 35 22 43 26 / 10 0 0 10
HARRISON AR 25 15 31 20 / 10 10 0 10
HOT SPRINGS AR 32 18 35 23 / 10 0 0 10
LITTLE ROCK AR 31 16 33 23 / 10 0 0 10
MONTICELLO AR 33 22 41 26 / 10 0 0 10
MOUNT IDA AR 32 18 36 20 / 10 0 0 10
MOUNTAIN HOME AR 24 16 33 20 / 10 10 0 10
NEWPORT AR 30 15 34 21 / 10 10 0 10
PINE BLUFF AR 32 20 35 25 / 10 0 0 10
RUSSELLVILLE AR 29 15 36 21 / 10 10 0 10
SEARCY AR 30 14 31 20 / 10 10 0 10
STUTTGART AR 32 16 31 22 / 10 0 0 10
LZK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
AVIATION...61
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