899  
FXUS64 KLZK 201128 AAA  
AFDLZK  
 
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED  
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LITTLE ROCK AR  
628 AM CDT SUN AUG 20 2017  
   
DISCUSSION
 
 
UPDATED TO INCLUDE THE 12Z AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW...  
 

 
   
AVIATION
 
 
SOME PATCHY FOG AT ADF WILL DISSIPATE OVER THE NEXT HR OR  
SO...WITH VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO DOMINATE THROUGH THE REST OF  
THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING FOR ALL SITES. SOME ISOLATED AFTERNOON  
CONVECTION MAY BE SEEN...BUT COVERAGE TOO LIMITED TO MENTION IN  
TAFS AT THIS TIME. WINDS WILL BE GENERALLY LESS THAN 10KTS.  
 

 
   
PREV DISCUSSION
 
(ISSUED 240 AM CDT SUN AUG 20 2017)  
 
SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT  
 
QUIET CONDITIONS ARE ONGOING ACROSS MOST OF THE CWA EARLY THIS  
MORNING...WITH JUST SOME ISOLATED SHRA ONGOING ACROSS NERN SECTIONS  
OF THE CWA. THERE IS ALSO SOME PATCHY FOG...MAINLY ACROSS SWRN  
SECTIONS OF THE AREA. DIURNALLY DRIVEN ISOLATED CONVECTION WILL BE  
POSSIBLE AGAIN THIS SUN AFTERNOON...WITH THE OVERALL THREAT FOR SVR  
WX EXPECTED TO REMAIN LOW. HOWEVER...AN ISOLATED STRONG STORM MAY BE  
SEEN...WITH GUSTY WINDS AND LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL THE PRIMARY  
THREATS POSSIBLE.  
 
NEAR NORMAL TEMPS AND HUMID CONDITIONS WILL RESULT IN SOME  
OPPRESSIVELY HOT CONDITIONS ACROSS A LARGE PORTION OF THE STATE THIS  
SUN AFTERNOON...WITH HEAT INDEX VALUES NEAR OR JUST OVER 105 DEGREES  
FOR MOST LOCATIONS ACROSS CENTRAL AND SRN AR. WILL CONTINUE WITH THE  
HEAT ADV FOR THE PREVIOUS INCLUDED COUNTIES...WITH JUST ADDING A FEW  
MORE TO THE LIST. HEAT INDEX VALUES ACROSS NRN SECTIONS OF THE STATE  
SHOULD REMAIN IN THE MID 90S TO JUST OVER 100. SIMILAR TEMPS WILL BE  
SEEN FOR MON...THOUGH HUMIDITY LEVELS ARE FORECAST TO BE A TAD  
LOWER.  
 
ADDITIONAL SHRA/TSRA MAY BE SEEN ON MON...WITH THE BEST CHANCES IN  
THE LATE MORE INTO THE AFTERNOON HRS. ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED  
CONVECTION WILL BE POSSIBLE...WITH AN ISOLATED STRONG STORM  
POSSIBLE. GIVEN THIS PRECIP POTENTIAL...CLOUD COVER WILL BE IN THE  
30-70 PERCENT RANGE OR GENERALLY PARTLY SUNNY/CLOUDY. WHILE NOT  
IDEAL FOR ECLIPSE VIEWING...AT LEAST FOR ALL OF THE AREA...THERE MAY  
BE ENOUGH BREAKS IN THE CLOUD COVER FOR FOLKS TO EXPERIENCE AT LEAST  
A PORTION OF THE PARTIAL SOLAR ECLIPSE ACROSS THE LZK CWA.  
 
LONG TERM...TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY  
 
RAIN CHANCES WILL INCREASE TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT, AS A COLD  
FRONT PUSHES IN TO THE REGION. THE BOUNDARY WILL PUSH SOUTH OF THE  
REGION LATE WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY, AS COOL HIGH PRESSURE MOVES IN.  
 
AS THE UPPER RIDGE WILL REPOSITION ITSELF TO THE SOUTHWEST, THE  
FRONT WILL HIT IT, AND STALL. BY THE END OF THE PERIOD, THE RIDGE  
WILL NUDGE TO THE NORTHEAST A BIT, WHICH WILL PUSH THE FRONT BACK  
TOWARD ARKANSAS, AND BRING INCREASED RAIN CHANCES BACK INTO THE  
FORECAST.  
 
SO, ONE MORE DAY OF TEMPERATURES SLIGHTLY ABOVE AVERAGE AND 100-  
DEGREE HEAT INDICES, AND (HOPEFULLY) THAT'S "IT" FOR A WHILE. THE  
REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD, ESPECIALLY FRIDAY AND SATURDAY, WILL GIVE  
US BELOW AVERAGE TEMPERATURES--IN SOME CASES BY FIVE DEGREES OR  
MORE. PRETTY NICE FOR LATE AUGUST, IF YOU ASK ME. AND, FOR THOSE OF  
YOU, LIKE ME, WHO ARE COUNTING...IT WILL BE LESS THAN A WEEK UNTIL  
CLIMATOLOGICAL FALL.  
 

 
   
LZK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
 
 
HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR ARKANSAS-BRADLEY-  
CALHOUN-CLARK-CLEVELAND-CONWAY-DALLAS-DESHA-DREW-FAULKNER-  
GARLAND-GRANT-HOT SPRING-JACKSON-JEFFERSON-JOHNSON-LINCOLN-LOGAN-  
LONOKE-MONROE-MONTGOMERY-OUACHITA-PERRY-PIKE-POLK-POPE-PRAIRIE-  
PULASKI-SALINE-SCOTT-WHITE-WOODRUFF-YELL.  
 

 
 

 
 
AVIATION...62  
 
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