345  
FXUS64 KLZK 240204  
AFDLZK  
 
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION  
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LITTLE ROCK AR  
904 PM CDT THU MAR 23 2017  
   
UPDATE
 
 
NEAR TERM FORECASTS APPEAR ON TRACK. SEVERAL CAM TYPE MODELS ARE  
RECENTLY SPEEDING THE ARRIVAL OF CONVECTION ACROSS WESTERN  
SECTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA. CURRENT FORECASTS ACCOUNT FOR THIS  
SCENARIO.  
 
55  
 

 
   
PREV DISCUSSION
 
(ISSUED 623 PM CDT THU MAR 23 2017)  
 
AVIATION...  
EXPECT TSRA TO APPROACH WESTERN SECTIONS IN THE 21-00Z TIME FRAME.  
EXPECT 4000-6000 FT CEILINGS TO DEVELOP FROM SOUTH TO NORTH  
BETWEEN 06 AND 12Z.  
 
55  
 
PREV DISCUSSION...(ISSUED 303 PM CDT THU MAR 23 2017)  
 
SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY  
 
THE MAIN POINTS FOR THIS FORECAST PERIOD WILL BE THE STRONG WINDS  
AND THE RETURNING CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS, SOME OF  
WHICH MAY BE SEVERE.  
 
AN UPPER LEVEL LOW IS FORECAST TO SWEEP THROUGH THE NATURAL STATE  
THIS WEEKEND AND BRING WITH IT A STRONG COLD FRONT AND STORMY  
WEATHER. AS OF THIS AFTERNOON, AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WAS LOCATED IN  
THE FOUR CORNERS REGION AND IS APPROACHING THE PLAINS WHERE IT IS  
FORECAST TO INTENSIFY INTO A CLOSED OFF LOW.  
 
AHEAD OF THE UPPER LEVEL LOW, WINDS IN ARKANSAS WILL STRENGTHEN AS  
THE PRESSURE GRADIENT TIGHTENS AND FORCING INCREASES. THIS WILL  
RESULT IN WINDS RISING INTO THE 15 TO 20 MPH RANGE. WITH THESE  
CONDITIONS HAVE DECIDED TO ISSUE A LAKE WIND ADVISORY FOR 15Z ON  
FRIDAY THROUGH 03Z ON SATURDAY.  
 
SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO ADVECT INCREASING MOISTURE NORTH  
INTO THE STATE OVERNIGHT AND DURING THE DAY ON FRIDAY. WITH A FAIRLY  
DYNAMIC STORM SYSTEM APPROACHING WITH AMPLE WIND SHEAR AND FORCING,  
EXPECT SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS TO BECOME POSSIBLE. THE BEST ESTIMATED  
TIMING FOR THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE IN THE MID TO LATE AFTERNOON IN THE  
WEST, EVENING TO OVERNIGHT IN THE CENTRAL PORTIONS OF ARKANSAS, AND  
EASTERN PARTS OF THE STATE IN THE OVERNIGHT TO EARLY MORNING HOURS.  
THE MAIN THREAT WITH THIS LINE OF STORMS WILL BE STRONG AND DAMAGING  
WINDS, HOWEVER TORNADOES AND LARGE HAIL ARE POSSIBLE. THE LIMITING  
FACTOR RIGHT NOW IS THE LACK OF INSTABILITY. IF CAPE VALUES  
INCREASE, THE THREAT FOR TORNADOES AND LARGE HAIL WILL ALSO  
INCREASE. AS A RESULT, WILL NEED TO MONITOR THE TRENDS IN  
INSTABILITY DURING THE DAY ON FRIDAY.  
 
OVERALL, TEMPERATURES WILL BE WARM WITH LOWS IN THE UPPER 50S AND  
60S AND HIGHS IN THE 70S. HOWEVER, AFTER THE COLD FRONT MOVES  
THROUGH THE REGION FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT, OVERNIGHT LOWS ON FRIDAY  
NIGHT WILL BE IN THE LOWER 50S AND HIGHS ON SATURDAY WILL BE IN THE  
UPPER 60S AND LOWER 70S.  
 
ONCE THE COLD FRONT PUSHES THROUGH THE STATE ON SATURDAY, DRIER AIR  
WILL FILTER IN FROM THE WEST. HOWEVER, WITH THE VORT MAX SLOWLY  
MOVING OFF TO THE NORTHEAST, WRAP AROUND MOISTURE IS POSSIBLE AND  
THEREFORE HAVE LEFT A CHANCE OF POPS IN THE NORTHWEST.  
 
LONG TERM...SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY  
 
BESIDES SOME WRAP AROUND MOISTURE FROM THE DEPARTING SYSTEM  
LINGERING IN NORTHERN ARKANSAS, THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST AREA  
SHOULD BE CLOUD (AND PRECIP) FREE SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THE DAY ON  
SUNDAY. THIS WILL BE SHORT LIVED HOWEVER, WITH AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH  
EXPECTED TO DIG OVER THE MID WEST AND DROP A COLD FRONT INTO THE  
STATE SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY. TIMING/PLACEMENT LOOKS A LITTLE  
MORE CONSISTENT, BUT THE GFS IS A BIT MORE AGGRESSIVE COMPARED TO  
THE ECMWF. A MORE IMPRESSIVE SYSTEM WILL BARREL THROUGH AT THE END  
OF THE FORECAST CYCLE AS A SECOND UPPER LEVEL TROUGH TO OUR WEST  
BECOMES NEGATIVELY TILTED AT THE END OF THE WEEK. MODEL SPREAD  
INCREASES IN THIS TIME FRAME BUT DOES IMPLY AT LEAST SOME SEVERE  
WEATHER THREAT IN THIS PART OF THE COUNTRY. THROUGH THE FORECAST  
PERIOD, TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN NEAR SEASONAL AVERAGES WITH HIGHS  
IN THE 60S/70S AND LOWS IN THE 40S/50S.  
 

 
   
LZK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
 
 
LAKE WIND ADVISORY FROM 10 AM TO 10 PM CDT FRIDAY FOR ARKANSAS-  
BAXTER-BOONE-BRADLEY-CALHOUN-CLARK-CLEBURNE-CLEVELAND-CONWAY-  
DALLAS-DESHA-DREW-FAULKNER-FULTON-GARLAND-GRANT-HOT SPRING-  
INDEPENDENCE-IZARD-JACKSON-JEFFERSON-JOHNSON-LINCOLN-LOGAN-  
LONOKE-MARION-MONROE-MONTGOMERY-NEWTON-OUACHITA-PERRY-PIKE-POLK-  
POPE-PRAIRIE-PULASKI-SALINE-SCOTT-SEARCY-SHARP-STONE-VAN BUREN-  
WHITE-WOODRUFF-YELL.  
 

 
 

 
 
AVIATION...99  
 
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