065
FXUS64 KLZK 041911
AFDLZK
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LITTLE ROCK AR
225 PM CDT SAT JUL 4 2009
SHORT TERM....TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT
BIGGEST DIFFERENCES IN THE MODELS VERSUS THIS TIME YESTERDAY IS THE
TIMING OF THE EVENTUAL COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE. ALL SHORT RANGE MODELS
HAVE INCREASED THE SPEED OF THIS SYSTEM AND HAVE IT CLEARING THE
AREA BY LATE SUNDAY. WITH NO REAL DISCERNIBLE DIFFERENCES IN THE
MODELS...HAVE DECIDED TO GO WITH A BLEND OF SOLUTIONS THIS AFTERNOON.
MODELS ALL ADVERTISING A CHANGE IN THE UPPER AIR PATTERN AS
PERSISTENT UPPER LOW OVER THE NORTHEAST MOVES OUT AND UPPER RIDGE
GETS REESTABLISHED OVER THE WEST. PATTERN SHIFT WILL PLACE AREA IN
BROAD NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT THROUGH THE MAJORITY OF THE PERIOD.
LATEST SURFACE ANALYSIS INDICATES WARM FRONT NOW LOCATED OVER
EASTERN ARKANSAS WITH RATHER MOIST AND UNSTABLE AIRMASS IN ITS WAKE.
WEAK SURFACE LOW IS CURRENTLY OVER CENTRAL MISSOURI WITH TRAILING
COLD FRONT CUTTING ACROSS SOUTHWEST KANSAS AND INTO THE TEXAS
PANHANDLE. AFTERNOON CONVECTION HAS DEVELOPED ALONG AN OUTFLOW
BOUNDARY SOUTH OF A DECAYING MCS WITH SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH IN
EFFECT FOR PARTS OF THE NORTH THROUGH EARLY THIS EVENING.
ATTENTION WILL THEN TURN TO AFOREMENTIONED COLD FRONT THAT WILL BE
ENTERING NORTHWEST ARKANSAS AROUND SUNSET. FRONT WILL BE LOCATED
ACROSS CENTRAL ARKANSAS BY EARLY MORNING AND OUT OF THE FORECAST
AREA BY THE END OF THE DAY AS BUILDING HIGH PRESSURE PUSHES THE
BOUNDARY THROUGH. HAVE DECIDED TO INCREASE POPS WITH THIS FRONTAL
PASSAGE WITH FAVORABLE JET DYNAMICS...DECENT LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE
AND PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES IN EXCESS OF 2.25 INCHES POOLING ALONG
THE BOUNDARY.
WILL END PRECIPITATION FROM NORTH TO SOUTH ON SUNDAY AS HIGH BEGINS
TO SETTLE IN AND WILL LEAVE REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD DRY. WILL
ACTUALLY START THE PERIOD OFF WITH BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND
GRADUALLY INCREASE THEM AS THE PERIOD PROGRESSES. MAV/MEX NUMBERS
LOOK REASONABLE AND ARE GENERALLY ACCEPTED.
LONG TERM...WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY
UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL BE LOCATED OVER THE PLAINS TO START THE LONG
TERM...WITH SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE EASTERN UNITED STATES. A
STALLED FRONTAL BOUNDARY LOOKS TO REMAIN WELL SOUTH OF THE
STATE...KEEPING PRECIPITATION ALONG THE GULF COAST. KEPT THE
FORECAST DRY FOR ARKANSAS THROUGH THE PERIOD. TEMPERATURES THROUGH
THE LONG TERM WILL BE NEAR NORMAL...WITH HIGHS IN THE LOWER TO MID
90S AND LOWS IN THE LOWER TO MID 70S.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
BATESVILLE AR 69 83 65 88 / 70 40 20 10
CAMDEN AR 74 89 68 90 / 60 60 40 20
HARRISON AR 66 82 63 86 / 70 30 10 10
HOT SPRINGS AR 72 87 66 90 / 60 50 30 10
LITTLE ROCK AR 71 86 66 90 / 60 50 30 10
MONTICELLO AR 74 88 68 90 / 60 60 40 20
MOUNT IDA AR 72 86 66 89 / 60 50 30 10
MOUNTAIN HOME AR 67 82 63 87 / 70 40 10 10
NEWPORT AR 70 84 65 88 / 70 50 20 10
PINE BLUFF AR 73 87 67 90 / 60 60 40 10
RUSSELLVILLE AR 69 84 64 88 / 70 40 20 10
SEARCY AR 70 85 66 89 / 70 50 20 10
STUTTGART AR 72 86 67 90 / 60 60 30 10
LZK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
SHORT TERM...56 / LONG TERM...60
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