071  
FXUS64 KLZK 241742  
AFDLZK  
 
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION  
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LITTLE ROCK AR  
1242 PM CDT SAT JUN 24 2017  
   
AVIATION
 
24/18Z TAF CYCLE  
 
VFR CONDS ARE EXPECTED TO CONT THRU THE PD. DRIER LOW LVL AIRMASS  
WL PREVAIL, THANKS A TO N/NELY WIND FLOW INTO TNGT. WINDS WL VEER  
MORE TO THE E BY SUN MORNING. EXPECT MID AND HIGH LVL CLOUDS TO  
STREAM ACRS THE REGION AT TIMES THRU SUN. /44/  

 
   
PREV DISCUSSION
 
(ISSUED 410 AM CDT SAT JUN 24 2017)  
 
SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT  
 
A COLD FRONT WAS SITUATED SOUTH OF ARKANSAS THIS MORNING. AND  
WHILE DRY AIR WAS INITIALLY LAGGING THE FRONT BY A FAIR AMOUNT, IT  
IS NOW EASILY FILTERING INTO THE STATE FROM NORTH AS IS EVIDENT BY  
DEWPOINTS IN THE UPPER 50S TO LOW 60S NOW MAKING THEIR WAY INTO  
NORTHERN AND EVEN CENTRAL PARTS OF THE STATE. MODEL GUIDANCE OVER  
THE LAST COUPLE OF DAYS WAS PERSISTENT IN DEVELOPING SOME  
ELEVATED CONVECTION IN THE POST-FRONTAL AIR MASS OF SOUTHERN  
ARKANSAS THROUGH THE MORNING AND EVEN EARLY AFTERNOON HOURS.  
HOWEVER THIS TREND IS NO MORE AND NOW THE LATEST HIGH-RESOLUTION  
IS NOW SHOWING A RAIN-FREE FORECAST FOR THE REST OF THE DAY.  
CURRENTLY HAVE SOME 20-30 POPS IN THE FORECAST IN SOUTHERN  
ARKANSAS THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS. WILL LET THAT RIDE FOR NOW AND  
SEE HOW RADAR TRENDS PROGRESS THROUGH THE END OF THE SHIFT. IF  
NOTHING DEVELOPS, WILL LIKELY ISSUE AN AMENDMENT TO THE FORECAST  
TO REMOVE RAIN.  
 
OTHERWISE, A DRY FORECAST IS ON TAP FOR THE SHORT TERM PERIOD. A  
BROAD UPPER TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN HALF OF THE UNITED STATES WILL  
PUSH HIGH PRESSURE INTO ARKANSAS FROM THE NORTH. THIS UPPER LEVEL  
FLOW PATTERN COMBINED WITH SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL PRODUCE DRY  
WEATHER ACROSS THE REGION, WITH TEMPERATURES HOLDING AROUND OR  
SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL. MOST NOTABLY HUMIDITY LEVELS WILL BE HELD  
AT BAY, RESULTING IN A MUCH MORE COMFORTABLE FEEL TO THE DAYS.  
 
LONG TERM...MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY  
 
THE EXTENDED PERIOD WILL START WITH A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE OVER  
THE SOUTHWEST UNITED STATES, AND A NORTHWEST WIND FLOW ALOFT  
LOCALLY. A WEAK SYSTEM WILL RIDE THE FLOW INTO THE REGION LATE  
MONDAY, AND THIS WILL RESULT IN SMALL CHANCES FOR THUNDER IN THE  
NORTHEAST HALF OF ARKANSAS.  
 
AS THE WEEK PROGRESSES, THE RIDGE TO THE SOUTHWEST WILL BECOME LESS  
PRONOUNCED. THE FLOW ALOFT WILL BECOME MORE ZONAL. THERE MAY BE SOME  
RIDGING OVER THE SOUTHEAST STATES BY THE END OF THE WEEK. AT THE  
SURFACE, A COLD FRONT WILL SLOWLY WORK TOWARD THE REGION FROM THE  
PLAINS, BUT WILL PROBABLY HANG UP TO THE NORTHWEST.  
 
GIVEN THE PATTERN, THERE WILL BE A SLOW WARMING TREND AS THE WEEK  
PROGRESSES, ESPECIALLY AT NIGHT AS MOISTURE LEVELS GRADUALLY  
INCREASE. TEMPERATURES WILL START OFF BELOW AVERAGE, BUT WILL BE  
CLOSER TO NORMAL BY THE END OF THE WEEK. IN GENERAL, IT WILL BE DRY  
THROUGH WEDNESDAY, WITH ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND  
THUNDERSTORMS THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY AS THE AFOREMENTIONED  
FRONT APPROACHES.  

 
   
LZK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
 
NONE.  

 
 

 
 
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