256  
FXUS64 KTSA 201136  
AFDTSA  
 
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION  
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK  
636 AM CDT SUN MAY 20 2018  
   
DISCUSSION
 
 
THE DISCUSSION FOR THE 12Z TAF FORECAST CAN BE FOUND BELOW.  
 

 
   
AVIATION
 
 
CONCERNING TAF SITES KTUL/KRVS/KBVO/KMLC/KXNA/KFYV/KFSM/KROG.  
GIVEN UNCERTAINTIES REGARDING CONVECTIVE EVOLUTION TODAY, I HAVE  
ELECTED TO KEEP TAFS SIMPLE. TEMPO THUNDER GROUPS WERE MAINTAINED  
AT KROG/KXNA WITH STORMS NEARBY ON OUTFLOW FROM THE MCS IN SW MO.  
THE HRRR SHOWS REDEVELOPMENT OF STORMS LATER TODAY IN ASSOCIATION  
WITH THE MCV CURRENTLY IN WESTERN OK AS IT MOVES NORTHEAST IN OUR  
DIRECTION. ELECTED TO DO VCTS MENTION AT MOST SITES EXCEPT KMLC,  
WHERE THE AIRMASS HAS BEEN LESS WORKED OVER, AND THE HRRR IS MORE  
AGGRESSIVE. ACTIVITY SHOULD DIE OFF AFTER 00Z, THUS REMOVE ALL  
THUNDER MENTION AT THIS TIME FROM THE TAFS. THE GUIDANCE DOES HINT  
AT FOG DEVELOPMENT TONIGHT, BUT HAVE ELECTED TO PUNT THIS TO THE  
NEXT SHIFT GIVEN LOW CONFIDENCE AT THIS POINT.  
 
LACY  
 

 
   
PREV DISCUSSION
 
/ISSUED 348 AM CDT SUN MAY 20 2018/  
 
DISCUSSION...  
LARGE MCS IS ONGOING ACROSS MUCH OF OKLAHOMA AND PORTIONS OF WEST  
TEXAS. THIS SYSTEM HAS LEFT A LARGE OUTFLOW BOUNDARY EXTENDING  
FROM MIDLAND TO SOUTH OF ABILENE. MULTIPLE OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES  
EXIST ACROSS EASTERN OKLAHOMA AS WELL, AS STORMS CONTINUE TO FORM  
WITHIN THE LOW LEVEL JET AXIS. WIND GUSTS FROM THE OK MESONET  
HAVE BEEN SUB-SEVERE SO FAR OVERNIGHT, GENERALLY IN THE 40 TO 50  
MPH RANGE. THE HIGHEST CHANCE FOR STORMS WILL BE THIS MORNING  
ACROSS EASTERN OKLAHOMA, WITH DIMINISHING CHANCES BY TONIGHT.  
 
MONDAY WILL FEEL MORE COMFORTABLE AS SOME DRIER AIR WORKS INTO THE  
REGION BEHIND THE COLD FRONT. SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL PERSIST  
INTO AT LEAST MID WEEK, WHICH WILL BRING LOW END CHANCES FOR  
SHOWERS AND STORMS EACH DAY. OVERALL SEVERE POTENTIAL LOOKS LOW  
FOR THE NEXT FEW DAYS.  
 

 
   
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
 
 
TUL 80 63 84 66 / 60 20 20 10  
FSM 85 67 87 68 / 40 30 30 10  
MLC 79 62 86 65 / 70 40 30 10  
BVO 76 58 83 63 / 60 20 10 10  
FYV 80 62 82 62 / 40 30 30 10  
BYV 81 64 82 63 / 40 20 30 10  
MKO 77 63 84 66 / 60 40 30 10  
MIO 79 62 83 64 / 60 20 20 10  
F10 79 63 83 66 / 70 20 20 10  
HHW 84 67 87 67 / 50 40 30 10  
 

 
   
TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
 
 
OK...NONE.  
AR...NONE.  

 
 

 
 
AVIATION.....30  
 
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