398
FXUS64 KTSA 091129
AFDTSA
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
529 AM CST TUE FEB 9 2010
AVIATION
CONCERNING TAF SITES KTUL/KRVS/KMLC/KXNA/KFYV/KFSM.
OTHER THAN GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS LATE THIS MORNING
AND THIS AFTERNOON...LITTLE OF NOTE WILL HAPPEN DURING
THE TAF PERIOD. VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL.
PREV DISCUSSION
/ISSUED 317 AM CST TUE FEB 9 2010/
DISCUSSION...
CLOUDS HAVE CLEARED THIS MORNING WITH LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS OVER
NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA. THIS HAS ALLOWED TEMPERATURES TO DROP INTO
THE TEENS ACROSS THIS AREA. COLD CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE TODAY
AS UPPER LOW DIVES SOUTHEAST THROUGH NORTHERN MISSOURI. COULD SEE
BROKEN LOW CLOUD DECK REDEVELOP BY EARLY AFTERNOON ACROSS FAR NORTHEAST
OKLAHOMA AND NORTHWEST ARKANSAS IN ASSOCIATION WITH UPPER FEATURE.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD INTO THE REGION TONIGHT AND
EXPECT GOOD RADIATIONAL COOLING ACROSS NORTHWEST ARKANSAS...WHICH
RECEIVED 4 TO 6 INCHES OF SNOWFALL MONDAY.
MODELS IN GENERAL AGREEMENT WITH NEXT UPPER LEVEL STORM SYSTEM...
CURRENTLY OVER THE CALIFORNIA COAST. DISTURBANCE WILL MOVE INTO
CENTRAL TEXAS ON THURSDAY WITH THE CHANCE FOR RAIN AND/OR SNOW
PRIMARILY ACROSS SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA...SPREADING INTO WEST CENTRAL
ARKANSAS THURSDAY NIGHT. IF PRECIPITATION STAYS SOUTH OF THE RED
RIVER...HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL LIKELY NEED TO BE RAISED EVEN WITH
THE OVERCAST CONDITIONS EXPECTED.
NEXT COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH AREA SATURDAY NIGHT WITH THE
NEXT CHANCE FOR PRECIPITATION. GENERALLY STAYED WITH A BLEND OF
THE ECMWF/GFS DURING THIS TIME...WHICH ARE IN FAIRLY GOOD
AGREEMENT WITH FRONTAL POSITION INTO SUNDAY.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
TUL 34 18 36 26 / 0 0 0 10
FSM 31 17 37 25 / 0 0 0 10
MLC 37 20 40 27 / 0 0 10 10
BVO 32 14 35 22 / 0 0 0 10
FYV 28 13 33 18 / 0 0 0 10
BYV 27 13 30 19 / 0 0 0 10
MKO 33 19 36 26 / 0 0 0 10
MIO 30 15 32 22 / 0 0 0 10
F10 34 19 38 26 / 0 0 10 10
HHW 40 24 42 29 / 0 0 0 20
TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
OK...NONE.
AR...NONE.
SHORT TERM...17
LONG TERM....12
AVIATION...17
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