480
FXUS64 KTSA 110219
AFDTSA
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
919 PM CDT FRI MAY 10 2024
..NEW SHORT TERM
SHORT TERM
(THE REST OF TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 919 PM CDT FRI MAY 10 2024
SCATTERED HIGH CLOUDS WERE COMMON ACROSS MUCH OF EASTERN OKLAHOMA
AND NORTHWEST ARKANSAS AS OF MID EVENING...WHILE AT THE SURFACE
WINDS HAD BECOME LIGHT WITH SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE STILL OVER THE
REGION. THESE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE OVERNIGHT
TONIGHT WITH FORECAST LOWS REACHING CLOSE TO THIS MORNING'S LOWS.
THUS...FOR THE EVENING UPDATE...HAVE ADDED ONLY MINOR TWEAKS TO
HOURLY TEMP/DEWPOINT/SKY GRIDS OVERNIGHT TO ACCOUNT FOR LATEST
TRENDS AND OBS.
ON A SIDE NOTE...CLOUD COVER FORECAST THIS EVENING INTO TONIGHT
IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN SCATTERED HIGH CLOUDS FOR MUCH OF THE CWA
INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. THINNER COVERAGE ACROSS THE NORTH TO
MORE BROKEN COVERAGE ACROSS SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA. CLEARER CONDITIONS
OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS LOOKS TO BE JUST NORTH OF THE CWA INTO
KANSAS...THOUGH A BAND OF CUMULUS CLOUDS AROUND 10KFT WERE PUSHING
SOUTH/SOUTHEAST ALONG A WEAK TROF AXIS TRAILING A LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM CURRENTLY OVER THE GREAT LAKES REGION.
LONG TERM
(SATURDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 213 PM CDT FRI MAY 10 2024
A BRIEF WARM UP EXPECTED ON SATURDAY AS UPPER RIDGE SHIFTS OVER
THE SOUTHERN PLAINS AHEAD OF UPPER LOW MOVING THROUGH THE FOUR
CORNERS REGION.
PRECIPITATION CHANCES WILL BEGIN TO INCREASE SUNDAY AFTERNOON
INTO SUNDAY NIGHT AS UPPER SYSTEM APPROACHES FROM THE WEST.
LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL WILL BE POSSIBLE SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY
MORNING WITH PWATS GENERALLY IN THE 1.25-1.50 INCH RANGE. SEVERAL
OF THE GEFS RUNS ALSO SUPPORT THE POTENTIAL FOR HIGHER RAINFALL
AMOUNTS COMPARED TO CURRENT DETERMINISTIC SOLUTION. IN ADDITION,
AT LEAST A MARGINAL SEVERE THREAT WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS SOUTHEAST
OKLAHOMA AND WEST-CENTRAL ARKANSAS WHERE HIGHER INSTABILITY WILL
RESIDE.
DRIER CONDITIONS EXPECTED INTO TUESDAY BEHIND DEPARTING UPPER
SYSTEM. A BROAD UPPER TROUGH APPROACHES FROM THE WEST ON THURSDAY,
WITH A FEW EMBEDDED SMALLER SCALE DISTURBANCES. ANOTHER ROUND OF
SCATTERED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS FORECAST WITH LOCALLY HEAVY
RAINFALL AGAIN POSSIBLE DURING THIS TIME. STAYED CLOSE TO NBM
GUIDANCE THROUGH THE EXTENDED PERIODS.
AVIATION
(00Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 601 PM CDT FRI MAY 10 2024
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL WITH A FEW PASSING MID AND HIGH
CLOUDS. SFC WINDS WILL REMAIN BELOW IMPACTFUL LEVELS.
LACY
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
TUL 56 83 59 78 / 0 0 0 20
FSM 56 83 60 79 / 0 0 0 10
MLC 54 83 59 77 / 0 0 0 20
BVO 51 82 56 78 / 0 0 10 30
FYV 51 80 55 79 / 0 0 0 20
BYV 53 79 55 79 / 0 0 0 20
MKO 54 80 58 77 / 0 0 0 20
MIO 53 79 56 77 / 0 0 0 20
F10 55 81 58 76 / 0 0 10 20
HHW 56 80 59 74 / 0 10 10 30
TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
OK...NONE.
AR...NONE.
SHORT TERM...20
LONG TERM....12
AVIATION...30
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