079  
FXUS64 KTSA 152012  
AFDTSA  
 
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION  
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK  
312 PM CDT SUN JUL 15 2018  
   
DISCUSSION
 
 
CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS WILL BE THE MAIN  
FORECAST CONCERN. THE HEAT WILL BE ANOTHER CONCERN THRU TOMORROW,  
WITH A BREAK EXPECTED FOR A DAY OR TWO. MORE EXCESSIVE HEAT IS  
EXPECTED TOWARD THE LATTER PART OF THE WEEK.  
 
A WEAK UPPER TROUGH AXIS HAS BECOME MORE EAST-WEST ALIGNED TODAY,  
STRETCHING FROM ILLINOIS TO NORTHWEST OKLAHOMA. TO THE SOUTH OF  
THE TROF, AN AXIS OF RICHER DEEP LAYER MOISTURE RESIDES OVER  
OKLAHOMA AND NORTHWEST ARKANSAS. FOR THE PAST COUPLE OF MORNINGS,  
A PERSISTENT BAND OF MID LEVEL CLOUDS AND THUNDERSTORMS HAVE  
AFFECTED PORTIONS OF NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA TO THE SOUTH AND EAST OF  
THIS FEATURE. THE ACTIVITY TODAY WAS DISPLACED SOUTHEAST OF WHERE  
IT WAS YESTERDAY, AND THE CORRESPONDING BAND OF AFTERNOON  
CONVECTION NEAR THE DIFFERENTIAL HEATING ZONE HAS ALSO SHIFTED  
SOUTHEAST TODAY COMPARED TO YESTERDAY. THE LATEST CAM GUIDANCE  
SUGGESTS THAT THIS BAND OF MID LEVEL SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL  
DEVELOP A BIT FARTHER SOUTHEAST AGAIN TONIGHT INTO MONDAY AND HAVE  
THUS ADJUSTED POPS TO ACCOUNT FOR THIS TREND. THE GUIDANCE  
SUGGESTS SCATTERED AFTERNOON CONVECTION COULD DEVELOP ACROSS THE  
REGION ON MONDAY AFTERNOON. AFTERNOON HEAT INDICES WILL FLIRT WITH  
ADVISORY CRITERIA AGAIN, HOWEVER, UNCERTAINTIES REGARDING BOTH  
THE MID LEVEL CLOUD CANOPY AND CONVECTION, AND EXPECTED AFTERNOON  
STORM COVERAGE COULD LIMIT THE SPATIAL AND TEMPORAL EXTENT OF THE  
ADVISORY HEAT. THEREFORE, WILL ELECT TO HOLD OFF ON ANY HEADLINES  
AND WILL LET THE NEXT SHIFT REEVALUATE.  
 
NW FLOW WILL DEVELOP ALOFT OVER THE PLAINS AS A STRONG SHORTWAVE  
TROUGH DIVES SOUTHEAST OVER THE GREAT LAKES AND MIDWEST. A WEAK  
SURFACE FRONT WILL DROP DOWN INTO THE REGION, SETTING UP FOR A  
FAVORABLE WINDOW FOR CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE  
REGION MONDAY NIGHT THRU WEDNESDAY. THE HEAT SHOULD BACK OFF FOR A  
DAY OR TWO AS WELL.  
 
MID LEVEL HEIGHTS RISE DURING THE LATTER PART OF THE WEEK. THE  
LATEST ECMWF SHOWS A FAIRLY INTENSE LOW LEVEL THERMAL RIDGE  
EXTENDING EAST ACROSS OKLAHOMA THURSDAY AND FRIDAY AHEAD OF A WEAK  
BOUNDARY. OUR AREA COULD SEE WIDESPREAD TRIPLE DIGIT HEAT DURING  
THIS TIME FRAME. TEMPS MAY DROP SOME FOR THE WEEKEND, BUT THAT  
ISN'T COMPLETELY CERTAIN THIS FAR OUT. THE TIME PERIOD FROM MID  
JULY TO MID AUGUST IS OUR HOTTEST TIME OF YEAR ON AVERAGE.  
 
LACY  
 

 
   
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
 
 
TUL 76 96 75 93 / 40 30 30 30  
FSM 76 96 76 95 / 40 40 30 40  
MLC 75 95 75 96 / 30 20 30 20  
BVO 73 94 73 91 / 30 40 30 40  
FYV 72 91 70 90 / 30 40 30 40  
BYV 72 92 71 90 / 30 40 30 40  
MKO 74 95 74 93 / 40 30 30 30  
MIO 73 93 71 91 / 30 40 40 40  
F10 73 95 73 93 / 30 30 30 20  
HHW 75 97 75 97 / 10 30 20 10  
 

 
   
TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
 
 
OK...HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR OKZ049-053>057-  
059>062-064>068-070>076.  
 
AR...HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR ARZ019-020-029.  
 

 
 

 
 
LONG TERM....30  
 
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