190  
FXUS64 KTSA 171555  
AFDTSA  
 
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION  
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK  
955 AM CST SUN DEC 17 2017  
   
DISCUSSION
 
 
THE UPPER WAVE THAT BROUGHT LAST NIGHT'S WELCOME RAINS HAS ALREADY  
LIFTED UP INTO IA/IL THIS MORNING. WHILE THE RAINS HAVE ENDED, A  
COOL AND SATURATED BOUNDARY LAYER REMAINS, BENEATH A STOUT  
INVERSION. SOME WEAK LIFT IS EVIDENT IN SHORT TERM HI-RES MODEL  
GUIDANCE IN THIS SATURATED BOUNDARY LAYER, WHICH EXPLAINS THE  
POCKETS OF DRIZZLE ON AREA RADARS. EXPECT THIS TO CONTINUE THRU  
AROUND MIDDAY OR SO. CIGS WILL GRADUALLY RISE THIS AFTERNOON AS  
WELL. EVENTUALLY, THE LOW LEVEL FLOW WILL VEER TO MORE OF A  
WESTERLY DIRECTION, WARMING AND DRYING THE BULK OF THIS LOW LEVEL  
MOIST LAYER, BUT IT IS HIGHLY UNCERTAIN HOW QUICKLY THIS WILL  
OCCUR. WILL THUS ELECT TO KEEP SKIES CLOUDY THRU THE DAY AND HAVE  
ADJUSTED HI TEMPS SLIGHTLY DOWNWARD. UPDATED TEXT PRODUCTS SENT.  
 
LACY  
 

 
   
PREV DISCUSSION
 
/ISSUED 447 AM CST SUN DEC 17 2017/  
   
.UPDATE
 
 
AVIATION...  
CONCERNING TAF SITES KTUL/KRVS/KBVO/KMLC/KXNA/KFYV/KFSM/KROG.  
 
LOW CEILINGS AND IFR TO MVFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PREVAIL  
THROUGH THE PERIOD AT ALL THE TERMINALS, ALTHOUGH CLOUD BASES WILL  
LIKELY LIFT SOME DURING THE AFTERNOON BEFORE LOWERING AGAIN IN  
THE EVENING. ALTHOUGH IT IS NOT CURRENTLY FORECAST, THE CHANCE IS  
NOT ZERO THAT THE LOW CLOUDS COULD ERODE LATE AFTERNOON AND INTO  
THE EVENING FROM THE SOUTHWEST AS MOISTURE ALOFT DIMINISHES, AND  
IF THIS OCCURS, FOG WOULD LIKELY DEVELOP.  
 
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 345 AM CST SUN DEC 17 2017/  
 
DISCUSSION...  
RAIN IS ON ITS WAY OUT, AND SHOULD BE TOTALLY GONE WITHIN THE NEXT  
COUPLE HOURS, SO WILL KEEP A DRY FORECAST FOR TODAY. CLOUDS WILL  
REMAIN STUBBORN THOUGH, WHICH WILL HOLD HIGH TEMPERATURES TO THE  
50S.  
 
MILD TO WARM WEATHER WILL BE THE RULE FROM MONDAY THROUGH  
THURSDAY, WITH TEMPERATURES RUNNING 10 TO 20 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL  
FOR THE MOST PART EACH DAY. AN UPPER LEVEL STORM SYSTEM WILL TRACK  
NEAR THE RED RIVER TUESDAY NIGHT BRINGING WIDESPREAD RAIN TO THE  
SOUTHERN PART OF THE FORECAST AREA, WITH RAIN CHANCES TAPPERING  
OFF TO THE NORTH.  
 
THE MUCH ANTICIPATED STRONG COLD FRONT WILL DROP SOUTH ACROSS THE  
AREA LATE THURSDAY OR THURSDAY NIGHT, WITH MUCH COLDER AIR  
FOLLOWING IN ITS WAKE. THE TRUE ARCTIC AIR WILL ARRIVE CHRISTMAS  
EVE OR CHRISTMAS DAY, AND MAY BE ACCOMPANIED BY SOME LIGHT WINTRY  
PRECIPITATION. AT THIS TIME, SIGNIFICANT WINTRY PRECIPITATION  
APPEARS QUITE UNLIKELY FOR THE TIME PERIOD AROUND CHRISTMAS.  
 
STAYED CLOSE TO THE WARMER GFS/ECMWF MOS TEMPERATURES THE NEXT  
COUPLE DAYS.  
 

 
   
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
 
 
TUL 53 37 63 48 / 10 10 0 10  
FSM 55 39 65 49 / 10 10 0 10  
MLC 55 37 64 51 / 10 0 10 10  
BVO 52 33 62 43 / 10 10 0 10  
FYV 52 37 61 46 / 10 10 0 10  
BYV 52 38 61 48 / 10 10 0 10  
MKO 54 38 63 49 / 10 10 0 10  
MIO 52 38 60 47 / 10 10 0 10  
F10 54 37 64 49 / 10 10 0 10  
HHW 56 39 64 52 / 10 0 10 10  
 

 
   
TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
 
 
OK...NONE.  
AR...NONE.  

 
 

 
 
SHORT TERM...30  
 
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