382
FXUS64 KTSA 072046
AFDTSA
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
246 PM CST SAT NOV 7 2009
DISCUSSION
BREEZY AND UNSEASONABLY WARM NOVEMBER DAY UNDERWAY...WITH CURRENT
TEMPS RANGING FROM 75-80 DEGREES. SHALLOW STRATUS DECK THAT SPREAD
ACROSS SE OK EARLIER HAS SINCE DISSIPATED...AND WON'T BE SURPRISED
TO SEE A REPEAT PERFORMANCE TONIGHT...PER 12Z LOW-LEVEL RH FORECAST.
HAVE INCREASED CLOUD COVER IN GRIDS FOR LATER TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY
MORNING...WITH CLOUDS QUICKLY MIXING OUT LATER SUNDAY MORNING.
SURFACE FRONT ANALYZED NE TO SW ACROSS KS WILL EVENTUALLY BECOME
BETTER DEFINED AND SLIDE GRADUALLY SE TOWARD THE FORECAST AREA BY
LATE MONDAY. WHILE SOME INCREASE IN LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE IS
EXPECTED...THE PRESENCE OF IDA IN THE GULF WILL KEEP DEEPER MOISTURE
CONFINED WELL TO OUR S AND SE. WEAK COLD FRONT SHOULD EVENTUALLY GET
CAUGHT IN THE BROAD CIRCULATION AROUND IDA...WITH WINDS BECOMING
NLY/NWLY ACROSS THE ENTIRE AREA ON TUESDAY. COULD SEE SOME SCATTERED
SHOWERS NEAR THE SURFACE FRONT MAINLY MONDAY NIGHT INTO
TUESDAY...ALTHOUGH MOISTURE/INSTABILITY APPEARS TOO LIMITED TO SUPPORT
THUNDERSTORMS.
COOLER...BUT SEASONAL...TEMPERATURES WILL RETURN BY MID-WEEK AS
SURFACE RIDGE BUILDS ACROSS THE SRN PLAINS. SURFACE FLOW WILL
QUICKLY RETURN TO THE S BY THURSDAY...AHEAD OF THE NEXT DEEPENING
TROF ACROSS THE WRN STATES. 12Z GFS/ECMWF DIFFER BY LATE WEEK IN THE
HANDLING OF THE TROF AND ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT...AND HAVE LEANED
TOWARD THE SLOWER SOLUTION OF THE ECMWF FOR NOW...WITH LOW POPS IN
THE FORECAST FOR FRIDAY NIGHT/SATURDAY.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
TUL 58 79 57 74 / 0 0 10 20
FSM 50 77 54 76 / 0 0 10 10
MLC 58 76 55 74 / 0 0 10 10
BVO 51 78 55 73 / 0 0 10 20
FYV 52 75 50 72 / 0 0 10 10
BYV 53 75 52 71 / 0 0 10 10
MKO 54 78 54 74 / 0 0 10 10
MIO 57 77 55 72 / 0 0 10 20
F10 56 77 54 71 / 0 0 10 20
HHW 55 76 56 73 / 0 10 10 10
TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
OK...NONE.
AR...NONE.
SHORT TERM...21
LONG TERM....18
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