627  
FGUS71 KOKX 161506  
ESFOKX  
CTC001-007-009-011-NJC003-013-017-031-039-NYC005-047-059-061-071-079-  
081-085-087-103-119-302000-  
 
WINTER/SPRING FLOOD POTENTIAL OUTLOOK  
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY  
1105 AM EDT THU MAR 16 2017  
   
..WINTER/SPRING FLOOD POTENTIAL OUTLOOK
 
 
THIS IS THE FIFTH WINTER/SPRING FLOOD POTENTIAL OUTLOOK IN A SERIES  
OF ROUTINE WINTER/SPRING FLOOD POTENTIAL STATEMENTS INTENDED TO  
PROVIDE INSIGHT INTO THE LIKELIHOOD OF RIVER FLOODING (NOT FLASH  
FLOODING)OVER THE LOWER HUDSON RIVER VALLEY...NORTHEASTERN NEW  
JERSEY...SOUTHERN CONNECTICUT...NEW YORK CITY AND LONG ISLAND.  
 
THIS OUTLOOK IS BASED ON A CURRENT ASSESSMENT OF HYDRO-  
METEOROLOGICAL FACTORS WHICH CONTRIBUTE TO RIVER FLOODING. THESE  
FACTORS INCLUDE RECENT PRECIPITATION...SOIL MOISTURE...SNOW COVER  
AND SNOW WATER EQUIVALENT...RIVER ICE...STREAM-FLOW...FUTURE WEATHER  
CONDITIONS...AND OTHERS. THIS OUTLOOK DOES NOT ADDRESS THE SEVERITY  
OF ANY FUTURE RIVER FLOODING.  
 
THE LATEST CLIMATE PREDICTION CENTER 6 TO 10 DAY OUTLOOK VALID FROM  
MARCH 21ST THROUGH THE 25TH SUGGESTS BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND  
ABOVE NORMAL PRECIPITATION ACROSS THE HYDROLOGIC SERVICE AREA. THE 8  
TO 14 DAY OUTLOOK VALID FROM MARCH 23RD THROUGH THE 29TH SUGGESTS  
BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND ABOVE NORMAL PRECIPITATION ACROSS THE  
HYDROLOGIC SERVICE AREA.  
 
HEAVY RAINFALL IS THE PRIMARY FACTOR WHICH LEADS TO RIVER FLOODING.  
IT IS IMPORTANT TO NOTE THAT HEAVY RAINFALL CAN RAPIDLY CAUSE RIVER  
FLOODING ANY TIME OF THE YEAR...EVEN WHEN OVERALL RIVER FLOOD  
POTENTIAL IS CONSIDERED LOW OR BELOW NORMAL.  
 
CURRENT FLOODING - NONE.  
 
PRECIPITATION - YEAR TO DATE...PRECIPITATION DEPARTURES HAVE BEEN  
NEAR NORMAL ACROSS THE LOWER HUDSON RIVER VALLEY...NORTHEAST NEW  
JERSEY AND THE NEW YORK CITY 5 BOROUGHS. PRECIPITATION DEPARTURES  
ACROSS SOUTHERN CONNECTICUT AND LONG ISLAND HAVE BEEN ONE TO  
THREE INCHES BELOW NORMAL.  
 
SNOW DEPTH AND WATER EQUIVALENT - ACROSS NORTHEAST NEW JERSEY SNOW  
DEPTH WERE BETWEEN 6 TO 16 INCHES WITH SNOW WATER EQUIVALENT VALUES  
OF 2 TO 3 INCHES. ACROSS LOWER HUDSON RIVER VALLEY IN NEW YORK AND  
NORTHERN FAIRFIELD AND NORTHERN NEW HAVEN COUNTIES IN CONNECTICUT  
SNOW DEPTH WERE BETWEEN 10 TO 24 INCHES WITH SNOW WATER EQUIVALENT  
VALUES OF 2 TO 4 INCHES. ACROSS NEW YORK CITY METRO...SOUTH SHORE  
CONNECTICUT COAST AND NASSAU COUNTY ON LONG ISLAND SNOW DEPTH WERE  
BETWEEN 4 TO 10 INCHES WITH SNOW WATER EQUIVALENT VALUES OF LESS  
THAN 2 INCHES. ACROSS SUFFOLK COUNTY ON LONG ISLAND SNOW DEPTH WAS  
BETWEEN A TRACE TO AN INCH WITH SNOW WATER EQUIVALENTS VALUES OF  
LESS THAN AN INCH.  
 
RIVER FLOWS - ACROSS THE LOCAL HYDROLOGIC SERVICE AREA...FLOWS  
ACROSS AREA RIVERS AND STREAMS ARE NORMAL TO BELOW NORMAL. REAL-TIME  
WATER DATA CAN BE FOUND BY VISITING THE USGS AT WWW.USGS.GOV/WATER.  
 
SOIL MOISTURE - NEAR NORMAL. SOIL MOISTURE AND DROUGHT RELATED DATA  
AND CHARTS CAN BE SEEN AT: WWW.CPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV AND WWW.DROUGHT.GOV.  
 
RESERVOIR CONDITIONS - RESERVOIR LEVELS ACROSS THE NEW YORK CITY  
WATER SUPPLY SYSTEM WERE NORMAL. RESERVOIR LEVELS ACROSS THE  
COMBINED 13 NORTHEAST NEW JERSEY RESERVOIRS ARE 7 PERCENT BELOW  
NORMAL.  
 
FUTURE WEATHER CONDITIONS - DURING THE TWO WEEKS OF THIS OUTLOOK  
PERIOD EXPECT BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND ABOVE NORMAL  
PRECIPITATION.  
 
FOR COMPLETE WEATHER INFORMATION...VISIT OUR WEB SITE AT:  
WATER.WEATHER.GOV/AHPS/WATER/TEXTPRODS/VIEW.PHP?WFO=OKX&PROD=ESF.  
 
THE NEXT WINTER/SPRING FLOOD POTENTIAL OUTLOOK WILL BE ISSUED ON  
THURSDAY MARCH 30TH, 2017.  
 

 
 
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