614  
FGUS71 KOKX 161935  
ESFOKX  
CTC001-007-009-011-NJC003-013-017-031-039-NYC005-047-059-061-071-079-  
081-085-087-103-119-022000-  
 
WINTER/SPRING FLOOD POTENTIAL OUTLOOK  
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY  
232 PM EST THU FEB 16 2017  
   
..WINTER/SPRING FLOOD POTENTIAL OUTLOOK
 
 
THIS IS THE THIRD WINTER/SPRING FLOOD POTENTIAL OUTLOOK IN A SERIES  
OF ROUTINE WINTER/SPRING FLOOD POTENTIAL STATEMENTS INTENDED TO  
PROVIDE INSIGHT INTO THE LIKELIHOOD OF RIVER FLOODING (NOT FLASH  
FLOODING)OVER THE LOWER HUDSON RIVER VALLEY...NORTHEASTERN NEW  
JERSEY...SOUTHERN CONNECTICUT...NEW YORK CITY AND LONG ISLAND.  
 
THIS OUTLOOK IS BASED ON A CURRENT ASSESSMENT OF HYDRO-  
METEOROLOGICAL FACTORS WHICH CONTRIBUTE TO RIVER FLOODING. THESE  
FACTORS INCLUDE RECENT PRECIPITATION...SOIL MOISTURE...SNOW COVER  
AND SNOW WATER EQUIVALENT...RIVER ICE...STREAM-FLOW...FUTURE WEATHER  
CONDITIONS...AND OTHERS. THIS OUTLOOK DOES NOT ADDRESS THE SEVERITY  
OF ANY FUTURE RIVER FLOODING.  
 
THE LATEST CLIMATE PREDICTION CENTER 6 TO 10 DAY OUTLOOK VALID FROM  
FEBRUARY 21ST THROUGH THE 25TH SUGGESTS ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES  
AND ABOVE NORMAL PRECIPITATION ACROSS THE HYDROLOGIC SERVICE AREA.  
THE 8 TO 14 DAY OUTLOOK VALID FROM FEBRUARY 23RD THROUGH MARCH 1ST  
SUGGESTS ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND ABOVE NORMAL PRECIPITATION  
ACROSS THE HYDROLOGIC SERVICE AREA.  
 
HEAVY RAINFALL IS THE PRIMARY FACTOR WHICH LEADS TO RIVER FLOODING.  
IT IS IMPORTANT TO NOTE THAT HEAVY RAINFALL CAN RAPIDLY CAUSE RIVER  
FLOODING ANY TIME OF THE YEAR...EVEN WHEN OVERALL RIVER FLOOD  
POTENTIAL IS CONSIDERED LOW OR BELOW NORMAL.  
 
CURRENT FLOODING - NONE.  
 
PRECIPITATION - YEAR TO DATE...PRECIPITATION DEPARTURES HAVE BEEN  
NEAR NORMAL TO BELOW NORMAL ACROSS THE LOWER HUDSON RIVER  
VALLEY...SOUTHERN CONNECTICUT...NEW YORK CITY AND LONG ISLAND AND  
NORMAL TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL ACROSS NORTHEAST NEW JERSEY.  
 
RIVER FLOWS - ACROSS THE LOCAL HYDROLOGIC SERVICE AREA...FLOWS  
ACROSS AREA RIVERS AND STREAMS ARE NORMAL TO ABOVE NORMAL. REAL-TIME  
WATER DATA CAN BE FOUND BY VISITING THE USGS AT WWW.USGS.GOV/WATER.  
 
SOIL MOISTURE - NEAR NORMAL TO BELOW NORMAL. RECENT RAINFALL AND  
SNOW MELT CONTINUED TO PUT A DENT IN THE LONG TERM DROUGHT ACROSS  
THE LOCAL AREA. SOIL MOISTURE AND DROUGHT RELATED DATA AND CHARTS  
CAN BE SEEN AT: WWW.CPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV AND WWW.DROUGHT.GOV.  
 
RESERVOIR CONDITIONS - RESERVOIR LEVELS ACROSS THE NEW YORK CITY  
WATER SUPPLY SYSTEM ARE AROUND 11 PERCENT BELOW NORMAL.  
RESERVOIR LEVELS ACROSS THE COMBINED 13 NORTHEAST NEW JERSEY  
RESERVOIRS ARE NEAR NORMAL.  
 
FUTURE WEATHER CONDITIONS - DURING THE TWO WEEKS OF THIS OUTLOOK  
PERIOD EXPECT ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND ABOVE NORMAL  
PRECIPITATION.  
 
FOR COMPLETE WEATHER INFORMATION...VISIT OUR WEB SITE AT:  
WATER.WEATHER.GOV/AHPS/WATER/TEXTPRODS/VIEW.PHP?WFO=OKX&PROD=ESF.  
 
THE NEXT WINTER/SPRING FLOOD POTENTIAL OUTLOOK WILL BE ISSUED ON  
THURSDAY MARCH 2ND, 2017.  
 

 
 
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