193  
FXUS61 KALY 171936  
AFDALY  
 
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION  
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY  
336 PM EDT SUN JUN 17 2018  
   
SYNOPSIS
 
 
A WARM FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION TONIGHT WITH  
OPPRESSIVELY HOT AND HUMID CONDITIONS FOR MANY AREAS EXPECTED  
MONDAY. THEN A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH AND MOVE SOUTHWARD ACROSS  
THE AREA MONDAY TRIGGERING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. A COOLER AND  
MUCH LESS HUMID AIRMASS WITH BE USHERED IN FOR TUESDAY.  
 

 
   
NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM MONDAY MORNING/
 
 
AS OF 330 PM EDT...OCCASIONAL CIRRUS SPILLING OVER THE RIDGE  
AXIS THANKS TO THE UPSTREAM CONVECTION ACROSS SOUTHERN PORTIONS  
OF CANADA. WHILE THIS COULD RESULT IN A NICE SUNSET WITH  
SUNDOGS, A RATHER TRANQUIL NIGHT IS IN STORE ACROSS MOST OF THE  
REGION. A STRONG RIDGE AXIS WITH H585 HEIGHTS WILL SLOWLY DIP  
SOUTHWARD OVERNIGHT AS UPSTREAM WARM FRONT APPROACHES TOWARD OR  
AFTER 09Z. MID LEVEL INSTABILITY INCREASES THEREAFTER NORTH AND  
WEST OF ALBANY WHERE A SHOWER OR TWO COULD DEVELOP AS WE WILL  
HOLD ONTO THE SLIGHT CHANCE POPS AT THIS TIME. DEWPOINTS ARE  
EXPECTED TO CLIMB AS WELL LATE TONIGHT WHERE SOME MIST/FOG MAY  
DEVELOP IN SPOTS WHERE DEWPOINT DEPRESSIONS ARE ABLE TO NARROW  
UNDER LIGHT WINDS. OVERNIGHT LOWS ARE EXPECTED TO DROP INTO THE  
MID 60S TO NEAR 70F.  
 

 
   
SHORT TERM /6 AM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/
 
 
HEAT ADVISORY ISSUED FOR MAINLY VALLEY LOCATIONS OF EASTERN NY  
INTO SOUTHERN VT.  
 
SEVERE WEATHER POTENTIAL MONDAY INTO MONDAY EVENING AS SPC  
COORDINATION HAS RESULTED IN AN INCREASE TO SLIGHT RISK MAINLY  
ALONG AND NORTH OF I90 AT THIS TIME.  
 
AS PASSAGE OF THE WARM FRONT COMMENCES MONDAY MORNING, UPSTREAM  
DEWPOINTS NEAR 70F WILL ADVECT INTO THE REGION. WITH A MILD  
START TO THE DAY EXPECTED, ANY SUNSHINE WE RECEIVE SHOULD  
QUICKLY RESULT IN A CLIMB WELL INTO THE 80S IN THE MORNING.  
QUESTION WILL BE WHAT IF ANY CONVECTION MAY DEVELOP WITHIN THE  
WARM SECTOR BEFORE THE COLD FRONT FROM THE NORTH APPROACHES LATE  
IN THE DAY INTO THE EVENING HOURS. CAMS MEMBERS SUGGEST THE  
POTENTIAL FOR SOME ISOLATED TO SCATTERED CONVECTION DEVELOPING  
AROUND 15Z YET H700-500 TEMPERATURES CONTINUE TO MODERATE WHICH  
SUGGEST A CAP. FOR NOW, 20-30% POPS FROM THE CAPITAL REGION AND  
POINTS NORTH AND WEST. AS THE DAY PROGRESSES, CLOUD COVERAGE  
HAS THE POTENTIAL TO BE PROBLEMATIC WITH FORECAST HIGH  
TEMPERATURES. AS WEST-SOUTHWEST WIND MAGNITUDES INCREASES ALONG  
WITH PRESSURE GRADIENT, COMBINATION OF DOWNSLOPING AND ANY  
SUNSHINE WE RECEIVE WITH H850 TEMPERATURES NEAR 20C, COULD SEE  
THE HOTTEST TEMPERATURES OF THE YEAR THUS FAR WITH 90-95F FOR  
VALLEY LOCATIONS AND MID-UPR 80S ACROSS THE TERRAIN. AS  
DEWPOINTS DO CLIMB, FORECAST APPARENT TEMPERATURES OF 95-100F  
ARE EXPECTED AND PER THE NEW DIRECTIVES FOR HEAT INTO EASTERN  
NY, WE WILL HOIST A HEAT ADVISORY FOR MAINLY VALLEY LOCATIONS.  
 
NEXT CONCERN WILL BE CONVECTION AND THE SEVERE POTENTIAL. NCEP  
MODEL SUITE POINTS TOWARD MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES MARGINAL WITH  
VALUES AROUND 6 C/KM, RATHER MILD H500 TEMPERATURES NEAR -5C AND  
BEST UPPER DYNAMICS ARE EXPECTED NORTH OF THE ST LAWRENCE.  
HOWEVER, GIVEN HOT TEMPERATURES AND HIGH DEWPOINTS, FORECAST  
SBCAPES NEAR 3000 J/KG AND HEALTHY CAPE DENSITY, INCREASING  
EFFECTIVE BULK SHEAR MAGNITUDES AT OR ABOVE 30KTS ALONG WITH  
INCREASING LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE SHOULD SUFFICE FOR ORGANIZED  
CONVECTION TO DEVELOP. FURTHERMORE, AS PWATS CLIMB TOWARD 2  
INCHES WHICH IS UP TO 4 STANDARD DEVIATIONS ABOVE NORMAL AND  
MOISTURE FLUX MAGNITUDES UP TO 6 STANDARD DEVIATIONS ABOVE  
NORMAL, PRECIP LOADING AND WET MICRO/MACROBURST ARE EXPECTED.  
FORECAST REFLECTIVITY MODELS SUGGEST A FEW BOWS WITHIN A QLCS  
NEAR THE COLD FRONT COULD ALSO ENHANCE THE DAMAGING WIND  
POTENTIAL.  
 
COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE IS RATHER SIMILAR IN THE MODEL FIELDS WITH  
TIMING DURING THE NIGHT AND SOUTH OF THE CWA BY 12Z TUESDAY.  
NOTICEABLE DROP IN THE DEWPOINTS AND CLEARING SKIES FROM NORTH  
TO SOUTH ARE EXPECTED AS BRISK NORTH-NORTHWEST WINDS IN THE  
MORNING WITH DIMINISHING MAGNITUDES IN THE AFTERNOON AS A NEAR  
1020MB SURFACE HIGH BUILDS IN THE FROM UPPER GREAT LAKES. H850  
TEMPERATURES ALSO COOL OFF BACK TO AROUND 10C TUESDAY INTO  
TUESDAY NIGHT.  
 

 
   
LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/
 
 
THE UPPER LEVEL PATTERN FOR THE MIDDLE/END OF THE WEEK SHOULD BE  
DOMINATED BY TROUGHING ACROSS EASTERN CANADA, WITH OUR REGION  
REMAINING ON THE SOUTHWEST PERIPHERY OF THIS MEAN TROUGH. THIS  
SHOULD GENERALLY FAVOR SUBSIDENCE AND DRY WEATHER THROUGH AT LEAST  
FRIDAY, ALTHOUGH CAN NOT COMPLETELY RULE OUT AN EMBEDDED DISTURBANCE  
BRINGING ISOLATED SHOWERS TO NORTHERN AREAS AT SOME POINT.  
 
ONE SUCH DISTURBANCE IS EXPECTED TO PASS NORTH AND EAST OF THE  
REGION LATE WEDNESDAY/WEDNESDAY NIGHT, WITH A COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE  
EXPECTED LATE WEDNESDAY OR EARLY THURSDAY. CAN NOT RULE OUT ISOLATED  
SHOWERS WITH THIS FRONT, AGAIN FAVORING NORTHERN AREAS. SOME 12Z/17  
GLOBAL MODELS, MOST NOTABLY THE ECMWF, SUGGEST SOME FORM OF AN UPPER  
LEVEL IMPULSE PASSING JUST SOUTH OF THE REGION DURING THIS TIME AS  
WELL. WITH A GENERAL NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT PREVAILING, THIS SHOULD  
KEEP ANY SUCH DISTURBANCE SOUTH OF THE REGION, BUT WILL HAVE TO  
WATCH TRENDS THROUGH THE WEEK IN CASE THE NORTHWEST FLOW TEMPORARILY  
RELAXES AND ALLOWS SOME OF THE MOISTURE TO LIFT FARTHER NORTHWARD.  
 
THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH SHOULD LIFT OUT BY NEXT WEEKEND, WITH THE  
POSSIBILITY OF A DEAMPLIFYING UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE APPROACHING  
FROM THE WEST. THIS COULD BRING MORE CLOUDS AND SOME SHOWERS TO THE  
REGION NEXT WEEKEND.  
 
AS FOR TEMPERATURES, DAYTIME HIGHS SHOULD AVERAGE NEAR NORMAL FOR  
WED-FRI, AND PERHAPS TRENDING ABOVE NORMAL NEXT WEEKEND IF  
CLOUDS/SHOWERS ARE DELAYED OR REMAIN MORE SCATTERED IN COVERAGE.  
THIS WOULD BE MAINLY UPPER 70S TO LOWER 80S FOR LOWER ELEVATIONS,  
AND UPPER 60S TO MID 70S ACROSS HIGHER TERRAIN. NIGHTTIME LOWS MAY  
BE A BIT BELOW SEASONAL LEVELS, ESP THURSDAY/FRIDAY MORNINGS BEHIND  
THE COLD FRONT, WITH LOWS RANGING FROM THE 40S ACROSS THE SOUTHERN  
ADIRONDACKS AND HIGHER TERRAIN OF SOUTHERN VT, WITH 50S ELSEWHERE.  
NIGHTTIME LOWS SHOULD MODIFY INTO THE 50S AND 60S BY NEXT WEEKEND  
WITH MORE CLOUDS AND POSSIBLE HIGHER HUMIDITY LEVELS DEVELOPING.  
 

 
   
AVIATION /18Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/
 
 
VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE TO BE IN PLACE THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF  
THE DAY WITH JUST A FEW THIN CIRRUS CLOUDS, MAINLY FOR THE NORTHERN  
TERMINALS. LIGHT SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL BE AROUND 5 KTS OR LESS.  
 
DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS, VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE. ALTHOUGH  
DEWPOINTS WILL BE RISING, THE SHORT NIGHTTIME PERIOD AND LACK OF  
RECENT RAINFALL SHOULD HELP PREVENT ANY RADIATIONAL FOG FROM  
FORMING, DESPITE LIGHT WINDS AND MAINLY CLEAR SKIES.  
 
TOWARDS MONDAY MORNING, HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS WILL START TO INCREASE  
FROM NORTH TO SOUTH AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING FRONTAL SYSTEM. IT WILL  
CONTINUE TO BE VFR BUT SCT-BKN CIGS OF 2.0-2.5 KFT WILL BE IN PLACE.  
AS DAYTIME HEATING GETS UNDERWAY, SOME SCT CUMULUS AROUND 5 KFT  
WILL DEVELOP FOR ALL SITES AS WELL BY THE LATE MORNING HOURS. SOUTH  
TO SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL PICK UP DURING THE MORNING AND INCREASE TO  
AROUND 10 KTS FOR ALL SITES, WITH PERHAPS SOME HIGHER GUSTS AT KALB.  
 
ALTHOUGH IT SHOULD STAY DRY THROUGH THE END OF THE TAF PERIOD (18Z  
ON MONDAY), SOME THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE IN THE AFTERNOON OR  
EVENING HOURS.  
 
OUTLOOK...  
 
MONDAY NIGHT: HIGH OPERATIONAL IMPACT. LIKELY SHRA...TSRA.  
TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.  
 

 
   
FIRE WEATHER
 
 
INCREASING HEAT AND HUMIDITY TODAY WITH OPPRESSIVELY HOT AND  
HUMID CONDITIONS FOR MANY AREAS MONDAY. A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE  
SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE AREA MONDAY NIGHT TRIGGERING SHOWERS AND  
THUNDERSTORMS MONDAY AFTERNOON AND NIGHT. A MUCH LESS HUMID AND  
COOLER AIRMASS WITH BE USHERED IN WITH THE PASSAGE OF THE FRONT  
TUESDAY.  
 
RELATIVE HUMIDITY ARE EXPECTED TO RECOVER TO 80 TO NEAR 100  
PERCENT TONIGHT. MINIMUM VALES MONDAY AFTERNOON ARE EXPECTED TO  
BE IN THE 45 TO 55 PERCENT RANGE. WESTERLY WINDS OF 10 TO 15  
MPH ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP MONDAY WITH GUSTS UP TO 25 TO 30  
MPH.  
 

 
   
HYDROLOGY
 
 
DRY WEATHER CONTINUES INTO MOST OF TONIGHT THEN CHANCES FOR  
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE IN THE INCREASE AS A COLD  
FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE NORTH INTO MONDAY. PRECIPITABLE WATER  
VALUES EXPECTED TO RISE TO 1.5 TO 2 INCHES AHEAD OF THE COLD  
FRONT SO STORMS WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING VERY HEAVY  
DOWNPOURS WHICH COULD LEAD TO SOME FLOODING OF POOR DRAINAGE AND  
LOW LYING AREAS AND POSSIBLY ISOLATED FLASH FLOODING. THE  
WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER THE LOCAL AREA IN A SLIGHT RISK IN  
THEIR UPDATED DAY 2 EXCESSIVE RAINFALL FORECAST.  
 
FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES, INCLUDING  
OBSERVED AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS, PLEASE  
VISIT THE ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS  
ON OUR WEBSITE.  
 

 
   
CLIMATE
 
 
RECORD HIGHS FOR MONDAY...  
 
ALBANY NY - 97 DEGREES 1957 (RECORDS DATE BACK TO 1874)  
GLENS FALLS NY - 93 DEGREES 1994 (RECORDS DATE BACK TO 1949)  
POUGHKEEPSIE NY - 93 DEGREES 1957 (RECORDS DATE BACK TO 1931)  
 

 
   
ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
 
 
CT...NONE.  
NY...HEAT ADVISORY FROM 11 AM TO 8 PM EDT MONDAY FOR NYZ038>041-043-  
048>050-052>054-059>061-064>066-083-084.  
MA...NONE.  
VT...HEAT ADVISORY FROM 11 AM TO 8 PM EDT MONDAY FOR VTZ015.  
 

 
 

 
SYNOPSIS...IAA/BGM  
NEAR TERM...BGM  
SHORT TERM...BGM  
LONG TERM...KL/THOMPSON  
AVIATION...FRUGIS  
FIRE WEATHER...IAA/BGM  
HYDROLOGY...IAA/BGM  
CLIMATE...NWS ALY  
 
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/ALBANY  
 
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