132
FXUS61 KALY 260522
AFDALY
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
122 AM EDT SUN MAY 26 2013
SYNOPSIS
LOW PRESSURE JUST EAST OF NEW ENGLAND WILL FINALLY BEGIN TO MOVE
AWAY FROM THE AREA TONIGHT...AND THE WIDESPREAD RAIN...AND SOME WET
SNOW AT THE HIGHEST ELEVATIONS...WILL SLOWLY TAPER OFF TO SCATTERED
SHOWERS LATER TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY MORNING. BY MONDAY...SUNNY AND
WARMER WEATHER WILL RETURN FOR MEMORIAL DAY AS HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS INTO THE REGION.
NEAR TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/
AS OF 100 AM EDT...PRECIP COVERAGE AND INTENSITY CONTINUE TO SHOW
SIGNS OF SLOWLY SUBSIDING AS A COUPLE MORE SPOKES OF ENERGY ROTATE
AROUND THE DEEP AND VERTICALLY STAKED LOW OVER THE GULF OF MAINE. A
MESO-LOW WAS EVIDENT ON THE RADAR TRACKING FROM SOUTHERN VT/NH AND
INTO CONNECTICUT RIVER VALLEY WITH A TRAIL OF VORTICITY NOW
APPROACHING THE CAPITAL REGION. WE WILL TAYLOR POPS BACK
/ESPECIALLY FOR THE MID HUDSON VALLEY/ FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE
OVERNIGHT.
OTHERWISE...BOTTOM LINE IS THAT LIGHT PRECIP WILL CONTINUE FOR
MUCH...BUT NOT ALL OF THE AREA OVERNIGHT. FREEZING LEVELS AROUND
3000 FT FROM 00Z KALB SOUNDING...WITH SNOW BEING REPORTED IN AT
LEAST A MIX AT ELEVATIONS AROUND 2000-2500 FT. COLDEST SURFACE TEMP
READINGS CURRENTLY IN HIGHEST TERRAIN OF SOUTHERN VERMONT AROUND
34-35 DEGREES. STILL THINKING ANY LIGHT ACCUMULATION WILL BE ABOVE
2000 FT FOR OUR ADIRONDACK...CATSKILL AND NORTHERN BERKSHIRE ZONES
OVERNIGHT WITH UP TO AN INCH...WITH POSSIBLY 1-2 INCHES IN THE
SOUTHERN GREEN MOUNTAINS OF VERMONT. AT LOWER ELEVATIONS JUST A COLD
LIGHT RAIN WILL PERSIST.
COLD CONVEYOR BELT OF MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH THE VERTICALLY
STACKED LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM JUST OFF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST. AS THE
LOW MOVES SLOWLY NORTH-NORTHEAST...THE PCPN ACROSS THE REGION WILL
SLOWLY TAPER OFF LATER TONIGHT AND EARLY SUNDAY...WITH MOST PARTS OF
THE ALBANY FORECAST AREA ONLY GETTING SCATTERED SHOWERS ON SUNDAY.
ON SUNDAY...ANY STEADY PCPN WOULD BE CONFINED TO NORTHEAST AREAS
DURING THE MORNING...WITH SOUTHWESTERN AREAS POSSIBLE GETTING LITTLE
OR NO ADDITIONAL RAINFALL. BY LATE IN THE DAY EXPECT THE ENTIRE
FORECAST AREA TO BE PCPN FREE.
IT WILL REMAIN UNSEASONABLY COOL WITH LOWS GENERALLY IN THE MID 30S
TO LOWER 40S TONIGHT. CLOUD COVER...PCPN AND GUSTY WINDS TONIGHT
WILL PREVENT ANY FROST FORMATION...SO WILL NOT BE ISSUING A FROST
ADVISORY FOR TONIGHT IN THOSE AREAS WHERE TEMPS HAVE BEEN FORECAST
TO DROP INTO THE MID 30S.
HIGHS ON SUNDAY WILL BE IN THE MID 50S TO MID 60S.
NORTHWEST WINDS WILL GUST TO 25 TO 35 MPH THROUGH SUNDAY...AND UP
TO 40 MPH IS POSSIBLE ACROSS HIGHER TERRAIN. THE STRONGEST WINDS
WILL OCCUR INTO EARLY THIS EVENING...AND AGAIN DURING SUNDAY
AFTERNOON.
SHORT TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/
HIGH PRESSURE FINALLY BUILDS AND CONTROLS THE WEATHER ACROSS THE
REGION THROUGH THE PERIOD. CLEAR TO MAINLY CLEAR SKIES HAVE BEEN
FORECAST.
LOWS SUNDAY NIGHT WILL BE IN THE 30S WITH A BETTER CHANCE OF FROST
CONDITIONS DUE TO THE LIGHT WINDS AND CLEAR SKIES.
HIGHS MONDAY WILL BE IN THE MID 60S TO MID 70S. LOWS MONDAY NIGHT IN
THE UPPER 30S TO MID 40S.
LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/
THE PERIOD WILL START OUT DRY TUESDAY...AS A RIDGE AXIS ALOFT MOVES
ACROSS THE AREA. AFTER A CHILLY START...TEMPERATURES WILL FINALLY
WARM TO NORMAL LEVELS WITH A DECENT AMOUNT OF SUNSHINE TUESDAY
AFTERNOON AS A RETURN SOUTHERLY FLOW DEVELOPS.
A SOMEWHAT MORE UNSETTLED PATTERN LOOKS TO DEVELOP FROM LATE TUESDAY
NIGHT THROUGH MUCH OF THE REST OF THE PERIOD...ALTHOUGH IT WILL NOT
BE WET THE ENTIRE TIME. IT WILL BECOME INCREASINGLY WARM AND HUMID
THOUGH...WITH AT LEAST A LOW PROBABILITY FOR THUNDERSTORMS ALMOST
EACH DAY.
AN APPROACHING WARM FRONT AND UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE MAY TRIGGER AT
LEAST SCATTERED CONVECTION LATE TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY. SINCE
OUR AREA WILL BE ON THE NORTHERN PERIPHERY OF A BUILDING UPPER LEVEL
RIDGE AND IN A REGION OF STRONG WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT...WE WILL HAVE
TO WATCH FOR THE POTENTIAL OF STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IF
ENOUGH INSTABILITY IS REALIZED ON WEDNESDAY. WE STILL MAY BE DEALING
WITH A LINGERING SURFACE BOUNDARY ON THURSDAY WHICH COULD AGAIN
TRIGGER CONVECTION...ESPECIALLY GIVEN AN EXPECTED INCREASINGLY HUMID
AND UNSTABLE AIR MASS.
AT THIS TIME FRIDAY APPEARS TO BE THE PICK OF THE WEEK IN TERMS OF
DRY WEATHER AND LACK OF CONVECTION AS THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE BUILDS
NORTHWARD INTO THE REGION. IT WILL BE VERY WARM AND HUMID THOUGH.
ANY DRY PERIOD WILL BE SHORT-LIVED...AS ANOTHER FRONTAL BOUNDARY
APPROACHES FROM THE GREAT LAKES AND SOUTHERN CANADA ON SATURDAY WITH
ADDITIONAL CONVECTION POSSIBLE.
TEMPERATURES WILL AVERAGE ABOVE NORMAL THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH
CONFIDENCE IN THE PRECIPITATION FORECAST LESS CERTAIN DUE TO
POSSIBLE PERIODS OF CONVECTION.
AVIATION /06Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/
A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OFF THE COAST OF MAINE WILL SLOWLY MOVE AWAY
FROM THE REGION ON SUNDAY. BEFORE THIS OCCURS...PERIODS OF RAIN AND
SHOWERS WILL IMPACT THE EASTERN NY AND WESTERN NEW ENGLAND TAF
SITES...MAINLY DURING THE REMAINDER OF THE OVERNIGHT AND INTO THE
MORNING HOURS. ALTHOUGH FLYING CONDITIONS WILL GENERALLY BE VFR FOR
THE VALLEY TAF SITES...THESE PERIODS OF RAIN OR SHOWERS MAY ALLOW
FOR MVFR CONDITIONS AT TIMES...MAINLY FOR CIGS...AS THE RAINFALL
WILL BE RATHER LIGHT. KPSF MAY SEE MORE PERSISTENT MVFR CONDITIONS
THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE OVERNIGHT HOURS AND INTO THE FIRST PART
OF SUNDAY MORNING DUE TO LINGERING LOW STRATUS IN PLACE. AT THIS
POINT...IFR CONDITIONS ARE NOT ANTICIPATED FOR ANY OF THE TERMINALS
BASED OFF OF SURROUNDING CONDITIONS AND FORECAST MODEL SOUNDINGS.
BY AFTERNOON...THE THREAT FOR SHOWERS WILL GREATLY DIMINISH...AND
CIGS WILL IMPROVE. VFR CONDITIONS LOOK TO DOMINATE THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON HOURS...AND SKIES WILL BECOME NEARLY CLEAR FOR THE SUNDAY
NIGHT PERIOD.
W-NW WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO BE GUSTY...ESP DURING THE DAYTIME HOURS
ON SUNDAY...WHEN A FEW GUSTS OF 25-30 KTS WILL BE POSSIBLE...ESP FOR
KALB. WINDS WILL DIMINISH ON SUNDAY EVENING AS HIGH PRESSURE MOVES
TOWARDS THE AREA...AND NEARLY CALM WINDS ARE EXPECTED FOR SUNDAY
NIGHT.
OUTLOOK...
SUN NIGHT-TUE...VFR. NO SIG WX.
TUE NIGHT-THU...VFR. BRIEF MVFR/IFR POSSIBLE WITH CHC SHRA/TSRA.
FIRE WEATHER
NO FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK DUE TO THE WIDESPREAD
RAINFALL THAT HAS OCCURRED OVER THE PAST FEW DAYS. WINDS WILL BE
NORTHWEST THROUGH SUNDAY WITH GUSTS OF 25 TO 40 MPH.
HYDROLOGY
RADAR CONTINUES TO EXHIBIT BRIGHT BANDING WHICH IS RESULTING IN
HIGHER RADAR RETURNS BUT RAINFALL AMOUNTS REMAIN RATHER LIGHT.
6-HR TOTALS WHERE 1/2 OF AN INCH OR LESS WITH AHPS RIVER POINTS
SHOWING EITHER WITHIN BANK RISES OR NEAR STEADY FLOWS. THIS IS
EXPECTED TO CONTINUE WITH LITTLE TO NO HYDRO ISSUES EXPECTED.
DRIER WEATHER IS EXPECTED LATER SUNDAY AND WILL CONTINUE INTO
MEMORIAL DAY. THIS WILL RESULT IN AREA STREAMS AND RIVERS SLOWLY
RECEDING EARLY NEXT WEEK.
FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING
OBSERVED AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE
VISIT THE ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON
OUR WEBSITE.
ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.
SYNOPSIS...GJM
NEAR TERM...BGM/GJM/JPV
SHORT TERM...GJM
LONG TERM...JPV
AVIATION...FRUGIS
FIRE WEATHER...GJM
HYDROLOGY...GJM
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