493  
FXUS61 KALY 270520  
AFDALY  
 
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION  
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY  
120 AM EDT FRI APR 27 2018  
   
SYNOPSIS
 
 
A WEAK RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING DRY WEATHER TO EASTERN  
NEW YORK TO WESTERN NEW ENGLAND TONIGHT. LOW PRESSURE WILL BRING  
RAIN TO THE AREA ON FRIDAY. WARMER WEATHER WILL FOLLOW ON  
SATURDAY, THEN A COLD FRONT WILL BRING SHOWERS FOLLOWED BY  
COOLER WEATHER ON SUNDAY.  
 

 
   
NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/
 
 
AS OF 1225 AM EDT...STRATOCUMULUS DECK HAS DIMINISHED SOMEWHAT  
SINCE THE LAST UPDATE BUT REMAINS LATCHED TO THE TERRAIN NORTH  
AND EAST OF ALBANY. MORE BREAKS IN THE STRATOCU DECK ARE  
EXPECTED AS WEAK RIDGE MOVES OVERHEAD OVERNIGHT. HIGHER CLOUDS  
IN ADVANCE OF OUR SOUTHEAST LOW WILL SPREAD ACROSS THE REGION  
OVERNIGHT. WHERE CLEAR SKIES ARE ABLE TO REMAIN LONGER, SOME  
PATCHY FOG MAY RESULT. LOW TEMPERATURES WILL RANGE FROM THE  
LOWER 40S FROM THE CAPITAL DISTRICT SOUTHWARD, TO THE 30S OVER  
HIGHER TERRAIN AND ACROSS NORTHERN AREAS.  
 

 
   
SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY/
 
 
RAIN WILL OVERSPREAD THE AREA FROM SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST FRIDAY  
MORNING AS A WAVE LOW LOW PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE AND ALOFT  
LIFTS NORTHEAST FROM THE SOUTHEASTERN STATE UP THE EAST COAST.  
MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT A PERIOD OF STEADY RAIN WILL  
OCCUR FROM LATE MORNING THROUGH MID-AFTERNOON FOR MOST AREAS  
WITH THE HEAVIEST RAIN LIKELY SPREADING NORTHEAST THROUGH NEW  
ENGLAND. RAINFALL AMOUNTS WILL RANGE FROM 0.5 TO 1.0 INCHES FOR  
MUCH OF NEW ENGLAND, TO LESS THAN 0.5 INCHES FARTHER WEST. RAIN  
WILL TAPER TO DRIZZLE OR SCATTERED LIGHT SHOWERS BY LATE  
AFTERNOON AS THE BEST MID-LEVEL FRONTOGENETICAL FORCING MOVES  
OFF TO THE EAST. RAIN AND THICK CLOUDS WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES IN  
THE 50S THROUGH THE DAY FRIDAY AND HAVE GONE WITH VALUES A BIT  
BELOW MOST OF THE GUIDANCE BASED ON THIS SCENARIO.  
 
FRIDAY NIGHT WILL SEE A BREAK IN THE PRECIPITATION CHANCES AS  
OUR AREA WILL BE BETWEEN THE LOW PRESSURE WAVE MOVING OFF THE  
EAST COAST AND ANOTHER MID-LEVEL SHORT WAVE AND ASSOCIATED COLD  
FRONT MOVING EAST ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES. THE COLD FRONT WILL  
APPROACH THE AREA FROM THE WEST ON SATURDAY. SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW  
AND SOME BREAKS OF SUNSHINE SATURDAY WILL ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO  
CLIMB INTO THE 60S IN MOST AREAS. LATEST GUIDANCE IS INDICATING  
VERY SMALL MLCAPE VALUES WITH THIS SYSTEM WITH VERY SMALL LAPSE  
RATES (BELOW 5 DEGREES C/KM) ABOVE 600 MB. THIS IMPLIES ONLY A  
SMALL CHANCE FOR THUNDER. HOWEVER, THUNDER CANNOT BE COMPLETELY  
RULED OUT GIVEN THE LIKELYHOOD THAT THE FRONT WILL BE CROSSING  
THE AREA DURING THE FAVORED MID- TO- LATE AFTERNOON WITH RATHER  
WARM LOW- LEVEL TEMPERATURES. AT THIS POINT WE DO NOT BELIEVE  
THAT THE CHANCE OF THUNDER IS HIGH ENOUGH TO MENTION IN OUR  
GRIDDED FORECASTS, BUT THIS WILL NEED TO BE MONITORED. HAVE GONE  
WITH SCATTERED AFTERNOON SHOWERS FOR NOW.  
 
COLDER AIR WILL MOVE IN BEHIND THE FRONT SATURDAY NIGHT. SOME  
LINGERING SHOWERS COULD MIX WITH A LITTLE SNOW OVER HIGHER  
TERRAIN WEST OF THE HUDSON VALLEY AND OVER THE GREEN MOUNTAINS  
OVERNIGHT WITH LITTLE TO NO ACCUMULATION. AT THIS POINT SUNDAY  
LOOKS TO BE RATHER SIMILAR TO TODAY WITH CLOUDS, SCATTERED  
SHOWERS MAINLY OVER HIGHER TERRAIN, AND HIGH TEMPERATURES  
RANGING FROM THE 40S OVER HIGHER TERRAIN TO NEAR 50 IN THE  
CAPITAL DISTRICT AND IN THE 50S OVER THE MID-HUDSON VALLEY.  
 

 
   
LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/
 
 
SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY...AN UPPER TROPOSPHERIC LOW WILL BE  
SPINNING OVERHEAD KEEPING A CHANCE FOR RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS IN THE  
FORECAST NORTH OF I-90 DURING THIS TIME PERIOD. MOISTURE  
AVAILABILITY WILL BE LOW OVER OUR REGION SO ANY SCATTERED  
PRECIPITATION SHOULD BE OF LIGHT INTENSITY. LOW TEMPERATURES SUNDAY  
NIGHT WILL BE SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL IN THE 30S. HIGHS ON MONDAY WILL  
BE IN THE 50S WITH THE MID-HUDSON VALLEY MAKING A RUN AT 60.  
 
TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...UPPER TROPOSPHERIC RIDGING AND ASSOCIATED  
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE REGION ON TUESDAY AND  
CONTINUE THROUGH WEDNESDAY. A STRONG 1025MB+ HIGH SETTLED OFF THE  
COAST OF THE CAROLINAS WILL DRIVE WARM AIR INTO THE NORTHEAST CONUS  
DURING THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK. TEMPERATURES WILL BE WELL ABOVE  
AVERAGE AND CLIMB INTO THE UPPER 60S/LOW 70S ON TUESDAY AND INTO THE  
70S AND EVEN APPROACHING 80 (ESPECIALLY IN THE MID-HUDSON VALLEY) ON  
WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES WILL ACCOMPANY THESE  
ABOVE AVERAGE TEMPERATURES AS WELL! LOWS WILL BE MILD IN THE UPPER  
40S TO UPPER 50S.  
 
CLOUDS WILL BE ON THE INCREASE AND A CHANCE FOR RAIN MOVES BACK INTO  
THE REGION WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES  
FROM THE WEST. CONFIDENCE IS LOW REGARDING TIMING AND INTENSITY OF  
THE FRONTAL PASSAGE THEREFORE ONLY SLIGHT CHANCE TO CHANCE POPS FOR  
NOW.  
 

 
   
AVIATION /05Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/
 
 
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRIEFLY PASS ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH  
DAYBREAK. A WEAK WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE WILL THEN TRACK NORTHWARD  
FROM THE MID ATLANTIC STATES TO SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND TODAY,  
BRINGING A PERIOD OF RAIN TO THE TAF SITES.  
 
THROUGH DAYBREAK, MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED. HOWEVER,  
SOME GROUND FOG DEVELOPMENT COULD OCCUR AT KGFL, WHICH MIGHT  
LEAD TO A BRIEF PERIOD OF MVFR/IFR VSBY RESTRICTIONS, ESP  
BETWEEN 07Z-10Z/FRI.  
 
AFTER DAYBREAK, CLOUDS WILL THICKEN, WITH RAIN DEVELOPING FROM  
SOUTH TO NORTH BETWEEN ROUGHLY 14Z/FRI AND 17Z/FRI. A PERIOD OF  
MVFR CIGS/VSBYS IS LIKELY THROUGH MUCH OF THE AFTERNOON, WITH A  
CHANCE OF IFR CONDITIONS DURING PERIODS OF MODERATE RAIN. BEST  
CHANCE FOR LONGER PERIOD OF IFR CONDITIONS WILL BE AT KPSF.  
 
THE RAIN SHOULD TAPER OFF TO DRIZZLE BETWEEN 22Z/FRI-02Z/SAT,  
WITH IFR/MVFR CONDITIONS PREVAILING THROUGH 06Z/SAT, MAINLY FOR  
CIGS.  
 
LIGHT/VARIABLE WINDS SHOULD BECOME MAINLY NORTHEAST TO NORTH BY  
LATE THIS MORNING INTO THE AFTERNOON AT 4-8 KT. WINDS WILL  
BECOME LIGHT/VARIABLE ONCE AGAIN FOR FRIDAY NIGHT.  
 
OUTLOOK...  
 
FRIDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SCATTERED SHRA.  
SATURDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SCATTERED SHRA.  
SATURDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SCATTERED SHRA.  
SUNDAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. ISOLATED SHRA.  
SUNDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA.  
MONDAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA.  
MONDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.  
TUESDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.  
 

 
   
FIRE WEATHER
 
 
AFTER DRY WEATHER TONIGHT, MORE RAINFALL IS EXPECTED ON FRIDAY  
INTO FRIDAY NIGHT WITH CONTINUED COOL CONDITIONS.  
 
RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES WILL RECOVER TO 70 TO 90 PERCENT  
TONIGHT, DROP TO 50 TO 75 PERCENT FRIDAY AFTERNOON, THEN  
INCREASE TO 70 TO 90 PERCENT TONIGHT.  
 
WINDS WILL BE WEST AT 10 TO 15 MPH THIS EVENING THEN DIMINISH  
TO 5 MPH AFTER MIDNIGHT. WINDS WILL BE SOUTH TO SOUTHEAST AROUND  
5 MPH ON FRIDAY.  
 

 
   
HYDROLOGY
 
 
AFTER A PERIOD OF DRY WEATHER TONIGHT, MORE RAINFALL IS  
EXPECTED ON FRIDAY, SOME ADDITIONAL LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS ARE  
POSSIBLE ON SATURDAY AND SUNDAY, BUT DRY WEATHER WILL THEN  
RETURN FOR EARLY NEXT WEEK. TOTAL ADDITIONAL RAINFALL THROUGH  
SATURDAY NIGHT WILL GENERALLY BE HALF AN INCH TO THREE QUARTERS  
OF AN INCH.  
 
THIS RAINFALL WILL LEAD TO SOME MINOR RISES ON RIVERS AND  
STREAMS, WITH SOME RIVERS APPROACHING OR EXCEEDING ACTION  
STAGE. HOWEVER, FLOODING IS NOT ANTICIPATED THROUGH THE WEEKEND,  
AS RAINFALL AMOUNTS (AND MOUNTAIN SNOWMELT) LOOK LIMITED ENOUGH  
TO PREVENT ANY ADDITIONAL PROBLEMS.  
 
A PERIOD OF VERY WARM WEATHER IS EXPECTED NEXT WEEK. A SNOW PACK  
REMAINS AT HIGHER ELEVATIONS IN THE ADIRONDACKS AND SNOW MELT  
ASSOCIATED WITH THIS WARMER WEATHER COULD CAUSE SOME FLOODING IN  
THE ADIRONDACKS AT RVRN6 AND HIKN6 NEXT WEEK.  
 
FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES, INCLUDING  
OBSERVED AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS, PLEASE  
VISIT THE ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS  
ON OUR WEBSITE.  
 

 
   
ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
 
 
CT...NONE.  
NY...NONE.  
MA...NONE.  
VT...NONE.  
 

 
 

 
SYNOPSIS...MSE  
NEAR TERM...MSE/BGM/11  
SHORT TERM...MSE  
LONG TERM...CEBULKO  
AVIATION...KL/BGM  
FIRE WEATHER...MSE  
HYDROLOGY...MSE/WESTERGARD  
 
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