608  
FXUS61 KALY 251049  
AFDALY  
 
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION  
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY  
649 AM EDT TUE JUL 25 2017  
   
SYNOPSIS
 
 
AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL BRING SCATTERED SHOWERS AND COOL  
TEMPERATURES TO THE REGION THROUGH TODAY. CLEARING SKIES AND  
WARMER TEMPERATURES WILL ARRIVE FOR MID WEEK PERIOD. NEXT  
FRONTAL SYSTEM APPROACHES FOR THURSDAY AND FRIDAY WITH THE  
THREAT FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.  
 

 
   
NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/
 
 
AS OF 630 AM EDT...A LINE OF SHOWERS WAS APPROACHING FROM THE  
DACKS, MOHAWK VALLEY AND EASTERN CATSKILLS AS THIS WAS ALONG THE  
LEADING EDGE OF THE SHORT WAVE SEEN IN THE HIRES EXPERIMENTAL  
GOES16 H2O VAPOR CHANNELS. THERE REMAINS AMPLE DRY AIR SOUTH OF  
I90 AS WE WILL RETAIN SLIGHT CHANCE WORDING HERE AT THIS TIME.  
OTHERWISE, A CLOUDY AND CHILLY START FOR JULY STANDARDS AS  
TEMPERATURES WERE MAINLY INTO THE 50S.  
 
PREV DISC...UPPER LOW AND ASSOCIATED TROUGH AXIS WILL CONTINUE  
TO IMPACT THE REGION THROUGH AT LEAST EARLY THIS AFTERNOON.  
SHOWERS HAVE REDEVELOPED WITH THE DIFFERENTIAL CYCLONIC  
VORTICITY ADVECTION AS PER THE RAP/HRRR, THESE SHOWERS SHOULD  
CONTINUE TO TRACK ACROSS MOST OF THE REGION THIS MORNING INTO  
EARLY AFTERNOON. THE PASSAGE OF THIS TROUGH IS STILL EXPECTED BY  
MID- AFTERNOON AS SUBSIDENCE IS STILL EXPECTED THROUGH THE MID  
LEVELS PER THE HOURLY BUFKIT PROFILES. HOWEVER, AMPLE MOISTURE  
IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN AT AND BELOW THE INVERSION SO WE WILL  
RETAIN A MOSTLY CLOUDY FORECAST FOR MOST LOCATIONS. AS A LIGHT  
NORTHERLY WIND IS EXPECTED THROUGH THE DAY, ALONG WITH CLOUD  
COVERAGE, THIS SHOULD KEEP TEMPERATURES COOLER THAN NORMAL WITH  
HIGHS MAINLY INTO THE 60S.  
 

 
   
SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/
 
 
RESPECTABLE HIGH PRESSURE FOR JULY - 1025 MB - BUILDS IN FOR  
TONIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY BRINGING CLEARING SKIES AND COMFORTABLE  
HUMIDITY. GIVEN DEGREE OF CLEARING TUESDAY NIGHT, WHICH SOME  
SUGGESTIONS OF A STATUS DECK LINGERING FOR PORTIONS OF THE  
REGION, SOME PATCHY FOG IS LIKELY DUE TO MOIST GROUND. SOME  
ADDITIONAL BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS ARE EXPECTED ON WEDNESDAY AS HIGH  
TEMPERATURES WILL STILL BE A FEW DEGREES BELOW NORMAL, HIGHS  
CLIME BACK INTO THE 70S FOR MANY AREAS.  
 
A COLD FRONT APPROACHES THE REGION WEDNESDAY NIGHT. WE SHOULD BE  
ABLE TO KEEP THE RAIN AT BAY FOR WEDNESDAY NIGHT, ALTHOUGH FAR  
NORTHERN AREAS COULD SEE A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS AS WARM  
THERMAL RIDGE AXIS SETS UP ALONG AND JUST NORTH OF THE MOHAWK  
VALLEY. UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF SOUTHERLY FLOW, TEMPERATURES  
WILL BE NEAR TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL.  
 

 
   
LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/
 
 
THE LONG TERM PERIOD WILL FEATURE A FEW BEAUTIFUL SUMMER DAYS WILL  
COOLER TEMPERATURES AS A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE  
NORTHEASTERN CONUS. TO BEGIN THE PERIOD, HOWEVER, A COLD FRONT WILL  
DROP THROUGH THE REGION THURSDAY AFTERNOON/NIGHT, BRINGING A CHANCE  
FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. RIGHT ON ITS HEELS, AN UPPER LEVEL  
LOW, DEVELOPING OVER THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES REGION ON THURSDAY,  
WILL TRACK THROUGH OR JUST SOUTH OF THE REGION ON FRIDAY. SPC HAS  
INTRODUCED A SLIGHT RISK FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS INTO A SMALL  
PORTION OF ULSTER/DUTCHESS COUNTIES FOR THURSDAY/THURSDAY NIGHT BUT  
THIS WILL BE HIGHLY DEPENDENT ON THE DEVELOPMENT OF THE SURFACE LOW  
IN CONJUNCTION WITH THE UPPER LEVEL LOW FEATURE. MODELS ARE COMING  
INTO BETTER AGREEMENT WITH THE SOUTHWARD TRACK OF THE UPPER LOW BUT  
THE ECMWF IS STRONGER WITH THE INITIAL LOW AND DEVELOPS A SECONDARY  
COASTAL LOW WHICH MAY BRING SHOWERS/STORMS FURTHER NORTH INTO OUR  
AREA ON FRIDAY. SO HAVE CONTINUED SHOWER/STORM CHANCES THROUGH  
FRIDAY EVENING.  
 
THE MEAN UPPER TROUGH AXIS SLOWLY BUILDS EAST OF OUR REGION SATURDAY  
THROUGH MONDAY WITH GENERALLY DRY CONDITIONS, HIGH PRESSURE AND  
PARTLY TO MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES. TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO BE A  
LITTLE BELOW NORMAL BEHIND THE COLD FRONT EVEN WITH THE SUNSHINE.  
HIGHS FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE 70S WITH  
OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE 50S. HIGH PRESSURE POTENTIALLY BEGINS TO BUILD  
EAST ON MONDAY AS WARM ADVECTION BEGINS. THIS WILL ALLOW  
TEMPERATURES TO INCREASE INTO THE UPPER 70S AND LOWER 80S BY MONDAY  
AFTERNOON.  
 
THE CHANCE FOR SHOWERS MAY RETURN BY TUESDAY AFTERNOON BUT THE UPPER  
LEVEL PATTERN GETS MORE MUDDLED AND UNCERTAIN BEYOND MONDAY.  
 

 
   
AVIATION /12Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/
 
 
MVFR CEILINGS ARE EXPECTED WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS THIS MORNING  
AND AFTERNOON AS AN UPPER LEVEL LOW CONTINUES TO PUSH EASTWARD  
INTO NEW ENGLAND. CONDITIONS SHOULD GRADUALLY IMPROVE TO VFR  
LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT AS THE UPPER LEVEL INFLUENCE  
PUSHES FURTHER AWAY FROM NEW YORK. CIGS SHOULD IMPROVE TO VFR  
BY 00Z/WED. DEPENDING ON AMOUNT OF CLEARING, FOG WILL AGAIN BE  
POSSIBLE TOWARDS THE END OF THE TAF PERIOD. WINDS WILL BE MAINLY  
FROM THE E-NE BETWEEN 5 AND 10 KNOTS THROUGH THE PERIOD.  
 
OUTLOOK...  
 
WEDNESDAY NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA.  
THURSDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA.  
THURSDAY NIGHT: HIGH OPERATIONAL IMPACT. LIKELY SHRA...TSRA.  
FRIDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA.  
FRIDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.  
SATURDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.  
SATURDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.  
SUNDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.  
 

 
   
FIRE WEATHER
 
 
CHANCES FOR SHOWERS LINGERING THROUGH TUESDAY AS A LOW PRESSURE  
GRADUALLY MOVES ACROSS THE REGION. CLEARING AND DRIER WEATHER  
FOR TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY. NO FIRE WEATHER RELATED  
CONCERNS AT THIS TIME.  
 

 
   
HYDROLOGY
 
 
THROUGH TODAY EXPECT CHANCES OF SHOWERS TO LINGER THROUGH THE  
MID AFTERNOON HOURS WITH QPF VALUES GENERALLY A TENTH OF AN INCH  
OR LESS.  
 
FAIR WEATHER IS EXPECTED FOR THE MID WEEK WITH MORE CHANCES FOR  
RAINFALL THURSDAY AND FRIDAY.  
 
FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES, INCLUDING  
OBSERVED AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS, PLEASE  
VISIT THE ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS  
ON OUR WEBSITE.  
 

 
   
ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
 
 
CT...NONE.  
NY...NONE.  
MA...NONE.  
VT...NONE.  
 

 
 

 
SYNOPSIS...BGM  
NEAR TERM...BGM  
SHORT TERM...BGM  
LONG TERM...NAS/JVM  
AVIATION...JVM  
FIRE WEATHER...BGM/OKEEFE  
HYDROLOGY...BGM/OKEEFE  
 
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