701
FXUS61 KALY 241910
AFDALY
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
310 PM EDT THU JUL 24 2008
SYNOPSIS
THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY THAT HAS LINGERED OVER OUR REGION FOR TWO
DAYS WILL EXIT TO THE EAST THIS EVENING. THE LARGE UPPER LEVEL LOW
WILL EXIT TONIGHT...AND THE THREAT OF SHOWERS WILL END. HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BUILD FROM THE OHIO VALLEY INTO THE MID ATLANTIC
STATES FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY. A FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL PUSH ACROSS NEW
YORK AND NEW ENGLAND SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY. AFTERWARDS HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BUILD FROM JAMES BAY INTO THE OHIO VALLEY FOR MUCH
OF THE NEW WEEK AND DRIFT EAST...WHILE A WEATHER DISTURBANCE
LINGERS ALOFT OVER QUEBEC.
NEAR TERM /UNTIL 10 PM THIS EVENING/
CDFNT HAS MOVED EAST OF FCA...SHUTTING OFF TRAINING LINES OF HEAVY
SHOWERS. FLOOD WATCH CANCELLED. THIS CDFNT WILL CONTINUE TO PUSH
EAST THROUGH NEW ENGLAND. CLOUDS HAVE BCM SCT-BKN IN THE "DRY"
SLOT BEHIND CDFNT...ALLOWING INSOLATION. STRONG DRYING PRESENT IN
MID LEVELS...AND COLD POOL IS DRIFTING EAST HAS RESULTED IN SCT
TSTMS BUT MOST ARE WEST OF FCA. THESE WILL CONTINUE TO BE POSSIBLE
TILL SUNSET...BUT QPF SHOULD BE HIGHLY LOCALIZED AND MOST AREAS
SHOULD REMAIN DRY.
SHORT TERM /10 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/
WITH THE END OF DAYTIME HEATING...WILL STILL HAVE TO DEAL WITH
COLD POOL OVER FCA...HWVR CORE OF 500HPA CUTOFF LIFTS N INTO
QUEBEC QUICKLY OVERNIGHT ONLY TRIGGERING SCT -SHRA WHICH WILL DIE
OVERNIGHT. OVERNIGHT HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD FM OHIO VLY INTO MID
ATLC STATES..THEN SLIDE OFFSHORE FRI NIGHT. WITH LIGHT WINDS AND
MOST AREAS HAVING RECEIVED ALOT OF PCPN OVER PAST DAY WILL MENTION
AREAS/PATCHY FOG IN MANY AREAS.
SATURDAY NEXT JET MAX/SHORT WAVE IN LARGER CYCLONIC 500HPA MOVES
INTO GRTLKS. INITIALLY WAA INTO FCA...AND SOME HINT OF A WMFNT AND
OVERRUNNING DRIVING THREAT OF INCR -SHRA/TSTMS SAT AFTN AND NT.
OVERNIGHT CDFNT PUSHES EAST...CLEARING REGION DURING SUNDAY. GFS
IS SLOWER AND PROLONGS THE THREAT OF -SHRA INTO LATE SUNDAY IN THE
SOUTHEAST BUT ENDING IF FROM NWS TO SE....WHILE NAM KEEPS SCT
EVERYWHERE. WILL CARRY CHC MOST AREAS ALL DAY. SUN NT CDFNT PUSHES
EAST OF RGN. HWVR REGION REMAINS IN CYCLONIC FLOW ASSOC WITH LARGE
CUT OFF OVER N QUEBEC...WITH PASSING SHORT WAVES...SO SKIES WILL
REMAIN PC.
LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/
FROM BOTH DETERMINISTIC MDLS AND ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE REGION WILL REMAIN IN
A LARGELY CYCLONIC AND NW FLOW AT 500HPA...WITH A LARGE 500HPA CUT
OFF LOW PARKED OVER THE NORTHEAST AND CANADA CENTERED OVER CENTRAL
QUEBEC. OVER TIME 500HPA CUT OFF WEAKENS AND RETREATS NORTH...AND
STEERING FLOW BECOMES WNW BY END OF PERIOD. INITIALLY WEAK HIGH
PRESSURE IS RIDGED AT THE SURFACE FROM GRTLKS INTO OHIO VALLEY...BUT
DIURNAL HEATING...STEEP LAPSE RATE ASSOCIATED WITH CUTOFF...AND
PASSING OR ROTATING 500HPA SHORT WAVES WILL INCR CLOUDS AND THE
THREAT OF AFTN AND EVENING SHRA/TSTMS MONDAY AND TUESDAY. MUCH OF
THE TIME WILL BE DRY WITH VARIABLE CLOUDS AND SUN DURING THE DAYS.
TUESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY AS THE 500HPA FLOW HAS TURNED
WESTERLY...SFC HIGH WILL BE ABLE TO BUILD EAST AND DRY CONDITIONS
WILL RESULT. AS SUCH TEMPS WILL BE NEAR TO BLO NORMALS. FCST WILL
BE POPULATED WITH HPC_GUID WITH ONLY MINOR CHANGES.
AVIATION /19Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/
ALL TERMINALS RECOVERING FROM THIS MORNINGS PRECIPITATION WITH
VFR CONDITIONS. CURRENT BREAK FROM SHRA/TSRA WILL BE SHORT
LIVED...AS BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS TO THE WEST WILL ALLOW FOR
SHRA/TSRA AND CB TO DEVELOP AND MOVE NORTHEASTWARD INTO THE AREA.
CONDITIONS WILL DETERIORATE AFTER SUNSET...WITH FOG DEVELOPING AT
ALL TERMINALS OVERNIGHT. DISSIPATING CLOUDS AND LIGHT WINDS WILL
AID IN THE DEVELOPMENT OF RADIATIONAL FOG. KGFL WILL BE THE WORST
WITH IFR DEVELOPING AFTER MIDNIGHT. KALB AND KPOU VSBYS WILL GO
DOWN TO MVFR WITHIN AN HOUR OF MIDNIGHT. AFTER SUNRISE ALL
TERMINALS WILL RECOVER TO IFR WITH ONLY FEW TO SCT LOW CLOUDS.
OUTLOOK...
FRI...VFR...NO SIG WX.
SAT AND SUN...VFR/MVFR...CHC SHRA/TSRA.
MON...VFR...CHC -SHRA.
TUE...VFR...NO SIG WX.
FIRE WEATHER
AREA EXPERIENCED WIDESPREAD 2 TO 4 INCHES OF RAIN. GROUND AND
FUELS ARE WET AND WILL TAKE SEVERAL DAYS BFE CONDS EVEN DRY OUT OR THAT
THERE WILL BE FIRE WX ISSUES OF CONCERN. DRY PERIOD WITH LIGHT
WINDS FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY. CHC -SHRA/TSTMS WILL RETURN SAT AFTN
INTO SUN MORNING.
HYDROLOGY
PRECIPITATION ESTIMATES SHOW THAT MOST OF OUR FORECAST AREA HAS
HAD 2 TO 4 INCHES OF RAIN OVER THE PAST 36 HOURS. LOCALLY HIGHER
AMOUNTS...OVER 4 INCHES...WERE REPORTED. LIGHTER AMOUNTS...UP TO
AN INCH AND A HALF...WERE REPORTED OVER NORTHERN HERKIMER AND
HAMILTON COUNTIES AND ALSO OVER SOUTHEASTERN LITCHFIELD COUNTY IN
CONNECTICUT.
RIVER RESPONSE HAS BEEN MOST SIGNIFICANT IN THE LOWER MOHAWK...
SCHOHARIE...HOOSIC...AND BATTENKILL DRAINAGES...WITH HEAVY RAIN
OVER SOUTHWESTERN VERMONT ENOUGH TO SEND THE HEADWATERS OF THE
BATTENKILL OVER FLOOD AT ARLINGTON. THE WALLOOMSAC RIVER SHOT
UP FOUR FEET LATE WEDNESDAY EVENING BUT STOPPED HALF A FOOT SHORT
OF FLOOD. THE MOHAWK RIVER CAME UP TWO ADDITIONAL FEET AT
SCHENECTADY JUST BEFORE DAYBREAK TODAY...BEFORE LEVELING OFF
AT 218 FEET.
THE HEAVIEST RAIN HAS MOVED OFF TO THE EAST INTO NEW ENGLAND. DRY
WEATHER IS EXPECTED ON FRIDAY.
ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.
SYNOPSIS...SNYDER
NEAR TERM...SNYDER
SHORT TERM...SNYDER
LONG TERM...SNYDER
AVIATION...KGS
FIRE WEATHER...SNYDER
HYDROLOGY...KILPATRICK
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