646  
FXUS61 KALY 270239  
AFDALY  
 
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION  
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY  
1039 PM EDT SUN MAR 26 2017  
   
SYNOPSIS
 
 
A WARM FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES  
REGION AND PENNSYLVANIA BRINGING PERIODS OF RAIN AND SOME FREEZING  
RAIN TO THE REGION TONIGHT. THE WARM FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH  
TOMORROW WITH LOW PRESSURE MOVING NORTH OF THE SAINT LAWRENCE RIVER  
VALLEY, AS THE PERIODS OF RAIN WILL TAPER TO SCATTERED SHOWERS BY  
THE EARLY EVENING WITH TEMPERATURES MODERATING CLOSER TO NORMAL  
LEVELS. ANOTHER DISTURBANCE WILL APPROACH FROM THE SOUTH AND WEST  
WITH MORE SHOWERS FOR TUESDAY BEFORE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FOR THE  
MID WEEK WITH DRIER WEATHER.  
 

 
   
NEAR TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/
 
 
FREEZING RAIN ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT UNTIL 5 AM MONDAY FOR THE  
EASTERN CATSKILLS OF WESTERN GREENE AND WESTERN ULSTER  
COUNTIES...  
 
A FREEZING RAIN ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT FOR THE ADIRONDACKS OF  
HAMILTON, NORTHERN WARREN AND NORTHERN FULTON COUNTIES, AS WELL  
AS SOUTHEAST WARREN AND NORTHERN SARATOGA COUNTIES IN THE LAKE  
GEORGE REGION UNTIL 2 AM MONDAY...  
 
FREEZING RAIN ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT FOR SOUTHERN VT, THE  
BERKSHIRES, AND NORTHERN LITCHFIELD COUNTY CT UNTIL 8 AM  
MONDAY....  
 
AS OF 1038 PM EDT, CONTINUED DRY AND CLOUDY CONDITIONS EXIST  
ACROSS THE REGION LATE THIS EVENING. TEMPERATURES CONTINUE TO  
HOVER IN THE LOWER TO MID 30S ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA, WITH  
ABOVE FREEZING READINGS IN MOST VALLEY LOCATIONS FROM AROUND  
I-90 SOUTHWARD. THE HIGHER TERRAIN AREAS HAVE TEMPS CLOSER TO  
FREEZING, WHICH IS WHERE THE MAIN CONCERNS FOR FREEZING RAIN  
WILL BE OVERNIGHT. LATEST HI-RES GUIDANCE CONTINUE TO INDICATE  
DRY CONDITIONS PERSISTING UNTIL SHORTLY AFTER MIDNIGHT, SO HAVE  
REMOVED MENTION OF POPS FOR THE NEXT FEW HOURS. THE NEXT ROUND  
OF PRECIP IS EXPECTED TO MOVE IN AFTER MIDNIGHT FROM WEST TO  
EAST. NO CHANGES TO CURRENT HEADLINES AT THIS TIME, ALTHOUGH  
TEMPERATURES WILL HAVE TO BE WATCHED WHEN THE PRECIP ARRIVES FOR  
POSSIBLE FREEZING RAIN OUTSIDE OF CURRENT ADVISORY AREAS. IT IS  
POSSIBLE SOME OF THE FREEZING RAIN ADVISORIES MIGHT NEED TO BE  
EXPANDED IN AREA OR EXTENDED ON TIME BASED ON TRENDS OVERNIGHT.  
 
THEN MORE PRONOUNCED ISENTROPIC LIFT AND MOISTURE ARRIVES  
OVERNIGHT INTO TOMORROW MORNING AS THE SURFACE WARM FRONT MOVES  
INTO THE AREA. LOW LEVEL JET MAGNITUDES INCREASE TO GREATER THAN  
35KTS WHICH CONTINUES THE WARM ADVECTION REGIME. HOWEVER, FOR  
PORTIONS OF THE HIGH TERRAIN INCLUDING THE SOUTHERN GREENS,  
BERKSHIRES, NORTHERN LITCHFIELD, SOUTHERN ADIRONDACKS AND  
CATSKILLS, THE COLDER AIR MAY LINGER A BIT LONGER. SO HAVE  
DECIDED TO ISSUE A NEW FREEZING RAIN ADVISORY FOR THE  
CATSKILLS/BERKSHIRES/N. LITCHFIELD AS WELL AS EXTEND THE  
ADVISORIES FOR THE SOUTHERN ADIRONDACKS/SOUTHERN GREENS. SOME  
LOCATIONS IN THE SOUTHERN GREENS/ADIRONDACKS COULD SEE A TENTH  
TO TWO TENTHS OF AN INCH OF ICE ACCUMULATION INTO MONDAY MORNING.  
IN LOWER ELEVATIONS WHERE RAINFALL WILL BE PROMINENT, TOTAL QPF  
AMOUNTS UP TO THREE-QUARTERS OF AN INCH ARE POSSIBLE.  
 
PRECIPITATION SHOULD START TO TAPER OFF LATE MONDAY AFTERNOON  
FROM SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST AS THE UPPER LEVEL LOW LIFTS INTO  
NEW ENGLAND. BRIEF PERIOD OF DRY WEATHER AND RIDGING BUILDS IN  
BEHIND IT.  
 
TEMPERATURES OVERNIGHT TONIGHT WILL REMAIN FAIRLY STEADY IN THE MID  
30S IN MOST VALLEY LOCATIONS FROM AROUND I-90 SOUTHWARD, WITH  
THE EXCEPTION OF HIGH TERRAIN LOCATIONS STAYING NEAR OR BELOW  
FREEZING. WARM AIR ADVECTION THEN KICKS IN ALLOWING FOR  
TEMPERATURES TO GRADUALLY WARM THROUGHOUT THE REMAINDER OF THE  
DAY MONDAY. AFTERNOON HIGH TEMPERATURES SHOULD WARM INTO THE  
MID 40S TO LOWER 50S.  
 

 
   
SHORT TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/
 
 
MON NIGHT...THE FORECAST AREA GETS INTO A WARM SECTOR WITH THE  
WARM FRONT LIFTING NORTH INTO NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND, AND THE MID  
LEVEL SHORT-WAVE TROUGH SHIFTING DOWNSTREAM. SOME LINGERING  
LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS OR DRIZZLE MAY LINGER IN THE WARM SECTOR.  
THERE IS NOT THAT MUCH SYNOPTIC FORCING FOR THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD  
WITH WEAK/FLAT MID LEVEL RIDGING BRIEFLY BUILDING IN AHEAD OF  
THE NEXT DISTURBANCE APPROACHING IN SOUTHWEST FLOW. THE GFS/NAM  
STILL DISAGREE WITH THE LATEST ECMWF IN TERMS OF THE APPROACH OF  
THE NEXT SHORT-WAVE. THE NAM AND GFS ARE FURTHER NORTH, WHILE  
THE ECMWF HAS THE SHORT-WAVE /AN OLD CONVECTIVE COMPLEX/ FURTHER  
SOUTH. OVERALL, A CLOUDY AND RATHER MILD OVERNIGHT PERIOD IS  
EXPECTED WITH LOWS IN THE MID 30S TO LOWER 40S. SOME PATCHY FOG  
IS ALSO POSSIBLE DUE TO THE MELTING SNOW AND ABUNDANT MOISTURE  
IN THE BOUNDARY LAYER.  
 
TUE-TUE NIGHT...THE AFOREMENTIONED SHORT-WAVE IS APPROACHING  
WITH A COLD FRONT DIPPING SOUTH/SOUTHEAST FROM THE ST LAWRENCE  
RIVER VALLEY. THIS IS A LOW CONFIDENCE FORECAST HERE, BUT IT  
LOOKS LIKE THE SFC WAVE SHOULD MOVE ALONG THE BOUNDARY WITH  
ANOTHER PERIOD OF RAINFALL LATE TUE MORNING INTO THE AFTERNOON.  
THERE IS A CHANCE MOST OF THE RAIN COULD MISS THE NORTHERN HALF  
OF THE FORECAST AREA IF THE WAVE STAYS FARTHER SOUTH LIKE THE  
EC. PWATS WILL STILL BE IN THE THREE QUARTERS OF AN INCH TO INCH  
RANGE WHICH IS 1 TO 2+ STANDARD DEVIATIONS ABOVE NORMAL BASED ON  
THE LATEST 12Z GEFS. ALSO, THE 12Z NAM IS INDICATING SOME  
ELEVATED INSTABILITY AHEAD OF THE FRONT AND SFC WAVE ESPECIALLY  
SOUTH OF THE CAPITAL REGION. SHOWALTER STABILITY INDICES ARE IN  
THE 0 TO -2C RANGE, AND WE PLACED A SLIGHT CHC OF THUNDERSTORMS  
IN FOR THE SOUTHERN 3 ZONES OF ULSTER/DUTCHESS/LITCHFIELD  
COUNTIES FOR NOW. THE COLD FRONT SHOULD PULL EAST EARLY IN THE  
EVENING FOR COLDER AIR TO FILTER IN. THIS WILL SLOW DOWN THE  
RUNOFF FROM THE ADDITIONAL QUARTER TO HALF AN INCH OF QPF  
COUPLED WITH SNOWMELT. HIGHS ON TUE ARE TRICKY DUE TO THE AMOUNT  
OF CLOUDS, BUT H850 TEMPS COULD BE +4 TO +7C ACROSS THE REGION  
WITH THE WEST TO SOUTHWEST FLOW. HIGHS WILL BE MAINLY IN THE 50S  
ON TUE WITH SOME UPPER 50S IN THE MID-HUDSON VALLEY, AND SOME  
UPPER 40S OVER THE ADIRONDACK PARK. AS THE COLDER AIR FILTERS IN  
BEHIND THE FRONT, THEN SOME SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE  
OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN WITH LIGHT SNOW ACCUMS OF A COATING TO  
A FEW TENTHS OF AN INCH ESPECIALLY OVER THE SOUTHERN  
ADIRONDACKS, EASTERN CATSKILLS AND SOUTHERN GREENS. H850 TEMPS  
FALL INTO THE 0C TO -10C RANGE FROM THE CAPITAL REGION/SOUTHERN  
VT NORTH AND WEST. LOWS WILL BE IN THE MID 20S TO LOWER 30S  
NORTH AND WEST OF THE TRI CITIES...AND MID AND UPPER 30S SOUTH  
AND EAST.  
 
WED-WED NIGHT...A DRYING TREND FOR THE REGION WITH CYCLONIC FLOW  
PERSISTING DURING THE DAY WITH COOL,AND BREEZY CONDITIONS. SOME  
ISOLATED UPSLOPE SNOW/RAIN SHOWERS OR FLURRIES/SPRINKLES ARE  
POSSIBLE OVER THE ADIRONDACKS/SOUTHERN GREENS. MOST THE REGION  
WILL BE DRY WITH PARTLY SUNNY CONDITIONS DUE TO STRATOCU WITH  
THE COLD POOL TO THE TROUGH. GOOD MIXING WILL STILL ALLOW TEMPS  
TO GET INTO MID 40S TO LOWER 50S IN MOST OF THE VALLEYS, AND MID  
30S TO LOWER 40S OVER THE HILLS AND MOUNTAINS. HIGH PRESSURE  
BUILDS IN FROM SOUTH OF JAMES BAY WITH FAIR AND COLD CONDITIONS.  
LOWS WILL BE IN THE 20S TO LOWER 30S WITH A FEW TEENS OVER THE  
ADIRONDACK PARK.  
 

 
   
LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/
 
 
THE PERIOD STARTS OUT ON THURSDAY WITH A SPRAWLING RIDGE OF HIGH  
PRESSURE IN PLACE EXTENDING ALL THE WAY FROM QUEBEC SOUTHWARD TO THE  
SOUTHEAST U.S. COAST. THIS SHOULD RESULT IN SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES,  
RELATIVELY LIGHT WINDS AND A DECENT AMOUNT OF SUNSHINE. THURSDAY  
LOOKS TO BE THE MOST PLEASANT WEATHER DAY OF THE PERIOD, AS MODELS  
(CMC/GFS/ECMWF) ARE IN BETTER AGREEMENT WITH TRACKING A COMPLEX  
STORM SYSTEM ACROSS OUR REGION FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY.  
 
THURSDAY NIGHT SHOULD BE MAINLY DRY, ALTHOUGH PRECIP MAY BE CLOSE TO  
OUR WESTERN BORDER BY FRIDAY MORNING. PRECIP EXPECTED TO DEVELOP  
FROM WEST TO EAST DURING THE DAY FRIDAY, AS ISENTROPIC LIFT  
INCREASES WELL NORTH AN EAST OF THE PARENT STORM LOCATED OVER THE  
MIDWEST. PRECIP LOOKS TO BE MOST WIDESPREAD FRIDAY NIGHT INTO THE  
FIRST HALF OF SATURDAY, AS FORCING STRENGTHENS ALONG WITH A MOIST  
EASTERLY FETCH AND A DOUBLE-BARREL LOW MOVING EASTWARD ACROSS THE  
REGION. SOME MODEL DIFFERENCES IN THE TRACK OF THE PRIMARY LOW, BUT  
THERE IS A SIGNAL FOR A DOMINANT SECONDARY CYCLONE EMERGING OFF THE  
MID ATLANTIC COAST, JUST SOUTH OF LONG ISLAND AND SOUTHERN NEW  
ENGLAND FRIDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY SATURDAY.  
 
THERMAL PROFILES BASED ON FORECAST SOUNDINGS MAY ACTUALLY BE COLD  
ENOUGH FOR SNOW AT TIMES, ESPECIALLY DURING DIURNALLY FAVORED TIMES  
OF LATE NIGHT AND EARLY MORNING, AND MOST FAVORED ACROSS THE HIGHER  
TERRAIN. THERE IS HIGH ENOUGH CONFIDENCE NOW TO MENTION LIKELY POPS  
FRIDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY SATURDAY MORNING DUE, WITH CHANCE POPS  
LINGERING WELL INTO SATURDAY AS THE STORM GRADUALLY MOVES EASTWARD  
ACROSS THE AREA.  
 
WIDESPREAD PRECIP SHOULD TAPER OFF TO SCATTERED RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS  
SATURDAY NIGHT, WITH DRY CONDITIONS RETURNING SUNDAY AS HIGHER  
PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE WEST.  
 

 
   
AVIATION /03Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/
 
 
SHOWERS HAVE ENDED ACROSS THE AREA, AND DRY CONDITIONS SHOULD  
PERSIST THROUGH THE REST OF THE EVENING FOR THE  
KALB/KPOU/KGFL/KPSF TERMINALS. CONDITIONS GENERALLY VFR TO  
BORDERLINE MVFR DUE TO CIGS IN THE 2500-3500 FT AGL RANGE. CIGS  
ARE EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY LOWERING OVERNIGHT, AS THE NEXT BATCH  
OF PRECIPITATION MOVES IN FROM THE WEST AFTER MIDNIGHT.  
EXPECTING SURFACE TEMPERATURES TO BE COLD ENOUGH FOR FREEZING  
RAIN INITIALLY AT KGFL/KPSF, WITH PLAIN RAIN AT KALB/KPOU.  
FREEZING RAIN SHOULD CHANGE TO RAIN BY AROUND 09Z-11Z MONDAY.  
FLYING CONDITIONS WILL BE POOR ONCE THE PRECIP COMMENCES,  
DETERIORATING TO IFR.  
 
IFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO PREVAIL FOR MUCH OF THE DAY MONDAY,  
ALTHOUGH SOME IMPROVEMENT TO MVFR IS POSSIBLE LATER IN THE  
AFTERNOON AFTER THE STEADY RAINFALL ENDS, ESPECIALLY AT  
KALB/KGFL. HOWEVER, IFR MAY PREVAIL THROUGH 00Z TUESDAY AT  
KPSF/KPOU.  
 
SOME LOW LEVEL WIND SHEAR WILL OCCUR AT KPSF/KPOU STARTING  
AROUND 11Z OR 12Z, AS A SOUTHERLY LOW LEVEL JET MOVES OVERHEAD.  
THE LLWS WILL LIKELY END BY EARLY AFTERNOON AS THE JET PUSHES  
EAST OF THE REGION.  
 
WINDS WILL BE LIGHT AND VARIABLE THIS EVENING, BECOMING  
EAST-SOUTHEAST AROUND 5-10 KT OVERNIGHT INTO MONDAY MORNING.  
WINDS WILL SHIFT TO THE SOUTH MONDAY AFTERNOON.  
 
OUTLOOK...  
 
MONDAY NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA...FG.  
TUESDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. LIKELY SHRA.  
TUESDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA.  
WEDNESDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.  
WEDNESDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.  
THURSDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.  
THURSDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.  
FRIDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF RA...SN.  
 

 
   
FIRE WEATHER
 
 
THE SNOW PACK REMAINS IN PLACE ACROSS MOST OF EASTERN NEW YORK  
AND WESTERN NEW ENGLAND. SOME MELTING HAS OCCURRED FOR SOME BARE  
SPOTS IN THE VALLEY AREAS. A PAIR OF SYSTEMS WILL BRING MAINLY  
RAINFALL TO THE REGION TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY. SOME FREEZING  
RAIN IS POSSIBLE OVER THE ELEVATED TERRAIN TONIGHT. COLDER  
TEMPERATURES RETURN TUESDAY NIGHT WITH A COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE.  
A COOLER AND DRIER AIR MASS BUILDS IN FOR THE MID WEEK.  
 

 
   
HYDROLOGY
 
 
AN UNSETTLED WEATHER PATTERN WILL IMPACT THE HYDRO SERVICE AREA  
THE TONIGHT INTO TUESDAY EVENING.  
 
A WARM FRONT AND LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL BRING A MIXTURE OF  
RAIN AND FREEZING RAIN TONIGHT TRANSITIONING TO PLAIN RAIN FOR  
THE ENTIRE REGION BY TOMORROW. TOTAL RAINFALL FROM THIS SYSTEM  
WILL BE IN THE HALF AN INCH TO INCH RANGE WITH SOME LOCALLY  
HIGHER AMOUNTS. SNOW MELT IS LIKELY AS THE MILDER AIR MASS  
BUILDS IN TOMORROW. ANOTHER SYSTEM WILL BRING MORE RAIN ON  
TUESDAY, BEFORE THE COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT WITH  
COLDER AND DRIER AIR RETURNING FOR THE MID WEEK. THE TOTAL  
RAINFALL TUESDAY TO TUESDAY NIGHT WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE  
QUARTER TO HALF AN INCH RANGE WITH A FEW LOCALIZED HIGHER  
AMOUNTS. SOME SIGNIFICANT SNOW MELT IS POSSIBLE, BUT THE RUNOFF  
SHOULD SLOW UP TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY, AND THE SNOW PACK  
SHOULD ABSORB THE RAIN OVER THE NORTHERN BASINS AND HIGHER  
TERRAIN.  
 
THE LATEST NERFC FORECAST HYDROGRAPHS HAVE A FEW POINTS GETTING  
INTO THE ALERT OR ACTION STAGE TUE-WED, BUT NO FLOODING IS  
FORECAST AT THIS TIME.  
 
ALSO, THE LATEST MMEFS FORECASTS INDICATE A FEW LOCATIONS GOING  
INTO ACTION STAGE EARLY NEXT WEEK, BUT CONFIDENCE IS NOT HIGH  
FOR POTENTIAL OF ANY FLOODING AT THIS TIME.  
 
FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES, INCLUDING OBSERVED  
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS, PLEASE VISIT THE  
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR  
WEBSITE.  
 

 
   
ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
 
 
CT...FREEZING RAIN ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM EDT MONDAY FOR CTZ001.  
NY...FREEZING RAIN ADVISORY UNTIL 5 AM EDT MONDAY FOR NYZ058-063.  
FREEZING RAIN ADVISORY UNTIL 2 AM EDT MONDAY FOR NYZ033-041-  
042-082-083.  
MA...FREEZING RAIN ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM EDT MONDAY FOR MAZ001-025.  
VT...FREEZING RAIN ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM EDT MONDAY FOR VTZ013>015.  
 

 
 

 
SYNOPSIS...WASULA  
NEAR TERM...BGM/JPV/JVM  
SHORT TERM...WASULA  
LONG TERM...JPV  
AVIATION...JPV  
FIRE WEATHER...BGM/WASULA  
HYDROLOGY...BGM/WASULA  
 
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