308
FXUS61 KALY 270306
AFDALY
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
1106 PM EDT FRI APR 26 2024
SYNOPSIS
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE SHIFTING OFF TO THE SOUTHEAST FOR
TONIGHT INTO SATURDAY, ALLOWING FOR CLEAR SKIES TO GRADUALLY GIVE
WAY TO SOME CLOUDS. AS A FRONTAL BOUNDARY APPROACHES THE AREA, SOME
SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE FOR LATE SATURDAY INTO SATURDAY NIGHT. A
FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL REMAIN CLOSE TO THE AREA FOR SUNDAY INTO
MONDAY, WITH CLOUDS AND SOME PASSING LIGHT SHOWERS IN SPOTS. WARMER
TEMPERATURES WILL FINALLY MAKE ITS WAY INTO THE REGION DURING NEXT
WEEK.
NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SATURDAY MORNING/
AS OF 11 PM...A PLEASANT FRIDAY NIGHT CONTINUES ACROSS EASTERN
NY AND WESTERN NEW ENGLAND UNDER CLEAR SKIES AND CALM WINDS. THE
00 UTC ALY SOUNDING SHOWS A VERY DRY COLUMN WITH SFC DEW POINTS
ACROSS THE REGION AGAIN IN THE 20S. THE CLEAR SKIES, DRY
COLUMN, AND LIGHT WINDS WILL SUPPORT RADIATIONAL COOLING AGAIN
TONIGHT. AS DISCUSSED IN THE PREVIOUS FORECAST, OVERNIGHT LOWS
WILL DROP INTO THE 30S WITH POCKETS OF 20S IN THE UPPER HUDSON
VALLEY SOUTHERN ADIRONDACKS AND SOUTHERN GREENS. ANY SENSITIVE
PLANTS SHOULD BE BROUGHT INDOORS AND AREAS SHOULD EXPERIENCE
AREAS OF FROST ONCE AGAIN ON ELEVATED SURFACES.
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION [339 PM EDT]...HIGH PRESSURE (AROUND 1033
MB) IS CENTERED OVER NORTHERN NEW YORK AND NEW ENGLAND. WITH THE
STRONG SUBSIDENCE IN PLACE, SKIES ARE FAIRLY SUNNY ACROSS THE
AREA. VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY, WEB CAMS AND SURFACE
OBSERVATIONS SHOWS THE ONLY CLOUDS OVER THE NORTHEAST ARE A FEW
THIN CIRRUS CLOUDS AROUND. WITH THE HIGH PRESSURE AREA CONTINUED
TO ONLY SLOWLY DRIFT TO THE SOUTHEAST AND DRY AIR IN PLACE, IT
WILL CONTINUE TO STAY FAIRLY CLEAR INTO THE EVENING HOURS. THE
12Z KALY SOUNDING SHOWED A PWAT OF ONLY 0.17 INCHES, WHICH IS
VERY DRY AND DEWPOINTS REMAIN VERY LOW IN THE TEENS AND 20S.
FOR TONIGHT, THE HIGH PRESSURE AREA WILL BE SLOWLY SHIFTING TO
JUST OFFSHORE SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND BY THE LATE NIGHT HOURS. FOR
MOST OF THE NIGHT, IT WILL BE FAIRLY CLEAR, ALTHOUGH SOME THIN
HIGH CLOUDS MAY START TO INCREASE BY LATE IN THE OVERNIGHT FROM
THE WEST. BY LATER IN THE OVERNIGHT, A LIGHT SOUTH TO SOUTHEAST
WIND WILL START TO DEVELOP, ESPECIALLY IN THE HUDSON VALLEY.
THIS MAY PREVENT TEMPS FROM GETTING AS CHILLY AS THE LAST FEW
MORNINGS, BUT MOST SPOTS WILL BE IN THE 30S. SOME SHELTERED
AREAS (ESPECIALLY THE ADIRONDACKS AND SOUTHERN VT) WILL STILL
SEE SOME 20S. ALTHOUGH THE GROWING SEASON HASN'T BEGUN
OFFICIALLY YET, MANY AREAS WILL BE SEEING SOME FROST TONIGHT.
SHORT TERM /6 AM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/
SKIES WILL BE FAIRLY CLEAR TO START THE DAY ON SATURDAY,
ALTHOUGH CLOUDS WILL BE GRADUALLY INCREASING FROM WEST TO EAST
THROUGH THE DAY. DESPITE THE INCREASING CLOUD COVER, LOW LEVELS
WILL STILL REMAIN FAIRLY DRY, WITH DEWPOINTS STILL DOWN IN THE
30S. DAYTIME HIGHS LOOK A LITTLE MILDER THAN THE LAST FEW DAYS
EVEN WITH THE INCREASING CLOUDS, AS THE SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL
ALLOW SOME WARMER TEMPS, WITH MOST AREAS REACHING THE UPPER 50S
TO MID 60S FOR HIGHS.
BY LATE IN THE DAY AND INTO THE EVENING, A FEW SHOWERS WILL BE
POSSIBLE, AS A LOW LEVEL BOUNDARY STARTS APPROACHING FROM THE
WEST. MUCH OF THIS ACTIVITY WILL BE DRYING UP AS IT FALLS THANKS
TO THE DRY LOW LEVELS, BUT A FEW SHOWERS CAN'T BE RULED OUT,
ESPECIALLY FOR AREAS NORTH AND WEST OF THE CAPITAL REGION.
FOR THE OVERNIGHT HOURS, A FEW MORE SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE,
ALTHOUGH ACTIVITY WILL BE FAIRLY SPOTTY AND MAINLY LIGHT. THE
BEST MOISTURE AND FORCING WILL REMAIN WEST OF THE REGION AND
UPPER LEVEL RIDGING WILL BE TRYING TO STAY IN PLACE ALONG THE
EASTERN SEABOARD, BUT SOME SHOWERS WILL BE TRYING TO TRACK INTO
THE REGION FROM NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST AND SNEAK OVER THE RIDGE.
HAVE GENERALLY GONE WITH CHANCE POPS ACROSS THE REGION, BUT
MOST OF THE SHOWERS WILL BE LIGHT AND FAIRLY BRIEF. A FEW MAY
LINGER INTO THE START OF THE DAY ON SUNDAY TOO, OTHERWISE, IT
WILL BE CLOUDY WITH LOWS IN THE 40S.
ON SUNDAY, A FEW EARLY DAY SHOWERS MAY STILL BE ONGOING.
OTHERWISE, IT WILL BE FAIRLY CLOUDY TO START THE DAY WITH A WEAK
BOUNDARY DRAPED CLOSE TO THE AREA. CLOUDS MAY EVENTUALLY BREAK
FOR SOME SUN, ESPECIALLY SOUTHERN AND EASTERN AREAS. IT WILL BE
NOTICEABLY MORE HUMID THAN THE PAST FEW DAYS WITH TEMPS IN THE
60S AND DEWPOINT INTO THE 50S. SOME HIGH TEMPS COULD REACH THE
LOW 70S IN VALLEY AREAS IF ENOUGH SUN OCCURS. WITH THE BEST
FORCING STILL WEST OF THE REGION, IT SHOULD BE FAIRLY DRY FOR
SUNDAY AFTERNOON INTO SUNDAY NIGHT. IT WILL REMAIN PARTLY TO
MOSTLY CLOUDY INTO SUNDAY NIGHT WITH LOWS IN THE 50S.
LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/
FRONTAL BOUNDARY MAY EVENTUALLY START TO LIFT BACK NORTH AS A
WARM FRONT ON MONDAY, WHICH SHOULD ALLOW FOR A MILD DAY ON
MONDAY, ESPECIALLY FOR SOUTHERN AREAS. THIS WILL ULTIMATELY
DEPEND ON HOW QUICKLY THE BOUNDARY LIFTS NORTH AND HOW MUCH SUN
OCCURS, BUT SOME DAYTIME TEMPS WELL INTO THE 70S WILL BE
POSSIBLE FOR MONDAY. MOST OF THE DAY LOOKS DRY ON MONDAY,
ALTHOUGH THE THREAT FOR SHOWERS MAY RETURN BY MONDAY EVENING.
THE BEST CHANCE FOR SOME PRECIP LOOKS TO BE MONDAY NIGHT INTO
TUESDAY, AS THE RIDGING FINALLY GETS PUSHED OFFSHORE AND A
SHORTWAVE AND ASSOCIATED SURFACE BOUNDARY APPROACHES FROM THE
WEST. THERE COULD BE SOME RUMBLES OF THUNDER, ALTHOUGH
INSTABILITY DOES LOOK SOMEWHAT LIMITED AT THIS TIME. AT THIS
POINT, OUR HIGHEST POPS LOOK TO BE TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND
EVENING, ALTHOUGH THE TIMING IS STILL SOMEWHAT IN QUESTION.
HIGHS LOOK MILD IN THE 60S AND 70S ON TUESDAY.
EVEN BEHIND THE FRONT, IT WILL REMAIN ABOVE NORMAL FOR WED
THROUGH FRIDAY, WITH DAYTIME TEMPS STILL IN THE 60S AND 70S.
THERE WILL PROBABLY BE A DRY STRETCH BEHIND THE INITIAL FRONT
ON WED/THURS BEFORE ANOTHER BOUNDARY APPROACHES FROM THE WEST ON
FRIDAY WITH MORE SCATTERED SHOWERS. THE TIMING IS STILL SUBJECT
TO CHANGE AS THERE ARE STILL SOME DIFFERENCES WITHIN THE
MODELS, BUT A SPRING-LIKE WEEK WITH MILDER TEMPS CERTAINLY LOOKS
TO BE IN STORE FOR THE REGION.
AVIATION /03Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
VFR FLYING CONDITIONS THROUGH 00 UTC SUNDAY.
CLEAR SKIES THROUGH 16 UTC EXPECTED ALL TERMINALS. CIRRUS CLOUDS
WILL GRADUALLY INCREASE FROM WEST TO EAST TOMORROW AFTERNOON
WITH CEILINGS REMAINING NEAR OR ABOVE 15KFT THROUGH AT LEAST 21
UTC.
LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS THROUGH 06 - 09 UTC BEFORE WINDS SHIFT
TO THE SOUTHEAST AND BECOMING SUSTAINED AROUND 5 KTS. SOUTHERLY
WINDS GRADUALLY INCREASE THROUGH THE MORNING, BECOMING SUSTAINED
5-12KTS BY 14 - 17 UTC WITH GUSTS INCREASING UP TO 15-20KTS.
OUTLOOK...
SATURDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA.
SUNDAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA.
SUNDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
MONDAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA.
MONDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA.
TUESDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. LIKELY SHRA.
TUESDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA.
WEDNESDAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA.
ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.
SYNOPSIS...FRUGIS
NEAR TERM...FRUGIS/SPECIALE
SHORT TERM...FRUGIS/SPECIALE
LONG TERM...FRUGIS
AVIATION...SPECIALE
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.
Main Text Page