510  
FXUS61 KALY 250224  
AFDALY  
 
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION  
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY  
1024 PM EDT MON APR 24 2017  
   
SYNOPSIS
 
 
SOGGY AND DAMP WEATHER WILL BE ON THE INCREASE LATE TONIGHT INTO  
TUESDAY MORNING AS COASTAL LOW MOVES UP THE EAST COAST. A WIDESPREAD  
RAINFALL WILL OCCUR ACROSS THE AREA LINGERING INTO WEDNESDAY. THEN  
A COLD FRONT IS FORECAST TO APPROACH TOWARD THE END OF THIS WEEK  
WITH ADDITIONAL CHANCES FOR WET WEATHER.  
 

 
   
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/
 
 
AS OF 1020 PM EDT, FORECAST REMAINS ON TRACK THIS EVENING SO  
FRESHENED UP THE TEMPS AND SENT UPDATES TO NDFD/WEB SERVERS.  
 
PREV DISC...  
AS OF 740 PM EDT, SOME LIGHT SHOWERS HAVE BEGUN MOVING INTO LONG  
ISLAND THIS EVENING AHEAD OF THE MAIN BATCH OF PRECIP MOVING UP  
THE MID-ATLANTIC COASTLINE. WE CAN EXPECT LIGHT SHOWERS ACROSS  
PERHAPS ULSTER, DUTCHESS AND LITCHFIELD COUNTIES LATER THIS  
EVENING INTO THE OVERNIGHT. THE GOES-16 LOW LEVEL WATER VAPOR  
IMAGERY CURRENTLY SHOWS DRY AIR OVER MOST OF THE AREA. HOWEVER,  
THIS WILL DRY AIR WILL GRADUALLY BE OVERCOME AS THE BETTER LOW  
LEVEL MOISTURE, CURRENTLY OVER NC/VA AND NJ, WILL WORKS ITS WAY  
NORTHWARD OVERNIGHT. IN TERMS OF THE FORECAST, NOT MUCH CHANGE  
WAS NEEDED. JUST FRESHENED UP THE HOURLY TEMPS, SKY COVER, AND  
POPS TO REFLECT MOST RECENT TRENDS. SENT UPDATES TO NDFD AND WEB  
SERVERS.  
 
AS OF 300 PM EDT, SATELLITE IMAGERY REVEALS MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES  
FROM AROUND THE CAPITAL DISTRICT NORTHWARD THIS AFTERNOON, WITH  
HIGH AND MID LEVEL CLOUDS MOVING ACROSS AREAS SOUTH OF ALBANY,  
ESPECIALLY ULSTER, DUTCHESS AND LITCHFIELD COUNTIES. STILL A  
RATHER MILD AFTERNOON, WITH TEMPERATURES IN THE 60S TO LOWER  
70S. LOW LEVELS ARE STILL QUITE DRY, WITH DEWPOINTS IN THE 30S  
AND 40S.  
 
CLOUDS WILL GRADUALLY INCREASE FROM SOUTH TO NORTH THIS EVENING  
INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS, AS A VERTICALLY STACKED LOW PRESSURE  
SYSTEM SLOWLY TRACKS NORTH ALONG THE CAROLINA COAST. EVEN THOUGH  
THERE ARE ECHOES ON THE RADAR AS FAR NORTH AS THE LOWER HUDSON  
VALLEY ALREADY, RAINFALL IS NOT REACHING THE GROUND AS THE LOW  
LEVELS ARE VERY DRY. OBSERVATIONS INDICATE THE CLOSEST RAINFALL  
REACHING THE SURFACE IS ACROSS SOUTHEAST PA, SO IT WILL TAKE  
SEVERAL HOURS TO SATURATE THE COLUMN. THEREFORE, WILL ONLY  
MENTION CHANCE POPS SPREADING FROM SOUTH TO NORTH FROM AROUND  
MIDNIGHT TO SUNRISE TUESDAY, WITH LIKELY POPS SHORTLY AFTER  
SUNRISE.  
 
MUCH OF TUESDAY WILL FEATURE PERIODS OF RAIN, MAINLY LIGHT IN  
INTENSITY ACROSS OUR REGION. THE HEAVIER RAIN EXPECTED WHERE THE  
BEST FORCING AND UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENCE WILL BE, POSITIONED  
ACROSS LONG ISLAND AND CENTRAL/EAST NEW ENGLAND WITH A  
PERSISTENT SOUTHEAST FETCH OFF THE ATLANTIC. STILL, IT WILL BE A  
CLOUDY, DAMP AND COOL DAY ACROSS EASTERN NEW YORK AND WESTERN  
NEW ENGLAND. AFTER A FEW MILD DAYS, TEMPERATURES WILL ONLY REACH  
THE UPPER 40S TO MID 50S. EASTERLY WINDS WILL INCREASE AS WELL,  
WITH GUSTS BETWEEN 30-40 MPH DEVELOPING IN FAVORED AREAS OF THE  
SOUTHERN GREENS, NORTHERN BERKSHIRES AND NORTHERN TACONICS.  
 

 
   
SHORT TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/
 
 
NEARLY VERTICALLY STACKED LOW CONTINUES TO TRACK NORTHWARD ALONG THE  
EAST COAST OF THE CONUS AS SOUTHEAST FLOW OF MAGNITUDES 40-50KTS  
ADVECT HIGHER MOISTURE INTO MOST OF THE REGION. THERE WILL LIKELY  
BE SOME ENHANCEMENTS INTO THE NORTHWEST HILLS OF CT AND CATSKILLS  
WHERE ADDITIONAL RAINFALL TOTALS WILL LIKELY BE ENHANCED.  
FURTHERMORE, WITH THESE WIND MAGNITUDES, PORTIONS OF THE TACONICS,  
BERKSHIRES AND SOUTHERN GREENS MAY EXPERIENCE SOME WIND CHANNELING  
FOR SLIGHTLY HIGHER MAGNITUDES AT THE SURFACE. EITHER WAY, NOT  
EXPECTING ANY HEADLINES AT THIS TIME WITH RESPECT TO WINDS OR RAIN.  
OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL BE CHILLY WITH MAINLY 40S THROUGHOUT THE REGION.  
 
WEDNESDAY, THIS COASTAL LOW WHILE INITIALLY SLOW MOVING WILL BEGIN  
TO TRACK NORTHEAST AND INCREASE IN FORWARD SPEED THROUGH THE DAY  
WHERE THE BEST LIFT AND DEFORMATION/TROWAL WILL BE PRIMARILY ALONG  
AND EAST OF THE HUDSON RIVER. ADDITIONAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS APPEAR TO  
BE LIGHT AT THIS TIME AS PLEASE REFER TO THE HYDROLOGY PORTION OF  
THIS DISCUSSION FOR FURTHER DETAILS. A RATHER CLOUDY AND DAMP DAY  
REMAINS IN THE FORECAST AS WE WILL SHADE CLOSER TO THE COOLER SIDE  
OF THE MOS GUIDANCE.  
 
WEDNESDAY NIGHT, DUE TO THE AFOREMENTIONED FASTER TIMING OF THIS LOW  
WILL ALSO SPEED UP THE ENDING TIME OF THE POPS/WX WITH DRYING  
CONDITIONS FROM WEST TO EAST THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS. HOWEVER,  
LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL BE TOUGH TO DISSIPATE PER THE POINT  
SOUNDINGS FROM AVAILABLE GUIDANCE. WITH THAT SAID, DUE TO THE  
COOLER HIGHS EXPECTED EARLIER IN THE DAY, WE WILL FAVOR THE COOLER  
SIDE FOR OVERNIGHT LOWS WITH UPPER 40S ACROSS THE TERRAIN TO LOWER  
50S FOR VALLEY LOCATIONS.  
 
THURSDAY, COULD BE A RATHER MILD DAY AS THE COASTAL LOW TRACKS  
FURTHER NORTHEAST AWAY FROM THE REGION AS A NARROW SHORT WAVE RIDGE  
AXIS SLIDES ACROSS. MAIN QUESTION WILL BE CLOUD COVERAGE AS SOME  
STRATUS MAY LINGER BELOW THE SUBSIDENCE INVERSION, MAINLY ACROSS  
WESTERN NEW ENGLAND. FOR NOW, BEST CHANCE FOR LATE APRIL SUNSHINE  
WILL BE ALONG AND WESTERN OF THE HUDSON AS LOW LEVEL SOUTHERLY FLOW  
INCREASES. THE NAM IS THE MILDEST WITH H850 TEMPERATURES NEAR +20C  
WITH THE OTHER AVAILABLE GUIDANCE ABOUT 5 DEGREES COOLER AS WE WILL  
FAVOR THE ENSEMBLE BLEND WITH MAINLY 70S AND COOLER MID-UPR 60S FOR  
WESTERN NEW ENGLAND.  
 

 
   
LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/
 
 
THIS WILL BE AN ACTIVE WEATHER PERIOD WITH TEMPERATURES WELL ABOVE  
NORMAL...AND A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS EACH DAY. A COLD  
FRONT WILL BE AT OUR DOORSTEP TOWARD FRIDAY MORNING. THIS FRONT  
WILL BECOME QUASI-STATIONARY JUST SOUTH OF OUR FORECAST ZONES  
FOR THE BALANCE OF THE PERIOD. THE PROXIMITY OF THIS FRONTAL  
BOUNDARY TO OUR ZONES SHOULD KEEP ENOUGH INSTABILITY IN PLACE TO  
WARRANT AT LEAST OCCASIONAL RUMBLES OF THUNDER. SOME DAYS WILL  
BE CLOUDIER THAN OTHERS...BUT RELATIVE HUMIDITIES WILL BE ON THE  
RISE.  
 

 
   
AVIATION /02Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/
 
 
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE FIRST PORTION OF THE  
FORECAST PERIOD. CLOUDS WILL GRADUALLY INCREASE FROM SOUTH TO  
NORTH AS A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM ALONG THE COAST OF THE CAROLINAS  
SLOWLY TRACKS NORTHWARD. LIGHT RAIN IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP  
AROUND OR SHORTLY AFTER SUNRISE AT THE KPSF/KALB/KGFL/KPOU  
TERMINALS, AS IT WILL TAKE TIME TO SATURATE THE LOWER PART OF  
THE ATMOSPHERE DUE TO DRY AIR IN PLACE. ALTHOUGH, SOME  
INTERMITTENT LIGHT SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE AT KPOU OVERNIGHT  
TONIGHT. CONDITIONS ARE THEN EXPECTED TO DETERIORATE TO MFVR/IFR  
THROUGHOUT THE MORNING/AFTERNOON HOURS AS THE STEADIER RAIN  
MOVES INTO THE REGION.  
 
WINDS WILL BE NORTHEAST AROUND 5 KT INITIALLY, BECOMING EASTERLY  
AROUND 10 KT BY TUESDAY MORNING. SOME GUSTS OF 15-20 KTS MAY BE  
POSSIBLE LATE IN THE PERIOD.  
 
OUTLOOK...  
 
TUESDAY NIGHT: HIGH OPERATIONAL IMPACT. LIKELY SHRA...RA.  
WEDNESDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA.  
WEDNESDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.  
THURSDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.  
THURSDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA.  
FRIDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA.  
FRIDAY NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA.  
SATURDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.  
 

 
   
FIRE WEATHER
 
 
CLOUDS WITH PERIODS OF RAIN DEVELOPING THROUGH THE MID WEEK PERIOD  
TO FURTHER REDUCE FIRE WEATHER RELATED CONCERNS.  
 
CLOUDS INCREASE TONIGHT ALONG WITH CHANCES OF RAIN DEVELOPING FROM  
SOUTH TO NORTH OVERNIGHT AND THROUGH TUESDAY. AS THE COASTAL LOW  
TRACKS ALONG THE EASTERN SEABOARD, THE SOGGY WEATHER IS EXPECTED TO  
LINGER THROUGH WEDNESDAY. THIS WILL KEEP RELATIVE HUMIDITIES UP TO  
BETWEEN 70 AND 90 PERCENT TONIGHT, AND BE AROUND 70 PERCENT THROUGH  
TUESDAY. PERCENTAGES INCREASES TUESDAY NIGHT AT OR ABOVE 80  
PERCENT.  
 
LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS BECOMING NORTHEAST TO EAST WINDS WILL  
CONTINUE TONIGHT. THE FLOW WILL BECOME MORE EASTERLY TUESDAY WITH  
WIND SPEEDS INCREASING TO 10 TO 15 MPH.  
 

 
   
HYDROLOGY
 
 
CHANCES FOR RAIN WILL BE ON THE INCREASE LATE TONIGHT INTO TUESDAY  
MORNING AS COASTAL LOW MOVES UP THE EAST COAST. A WIDESPREAD  
RAINFALL WILL OCCUR ACROSS THE AREA LINGERING INTO WEDNESDAY. QPF  
AMOUNTS ARE ANTICIPATED TO RANGE FROM ABOUT A THIRD OF AN INCH TO  
AROUND AN INCH ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA FROM NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST  
TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY. A BRIEF BREAK IN THE WET WEATHER IS  
EXPECTED THURSDAY BEFORE COLD FRONT APPROACHES AND MOVES THROUGH  
THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY BRINGING CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND  
THUNDERSTORMS TO THE AREA. MINIMAL RIVER RESPONSES ARE EXPECTED AT  
THIS TIME.  
 
FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES, INCLUDING OBSERVED  
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS, PLEASE VISIT THE  
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR  
WEBSITE.  
 

 
   
ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
 
 
CT...NONE.  
NY...NONE.  
MA...NONE.  
VT...NONE.  
 

 
 

 
SYNOPSIS...BGM  
NEAR TERM...IAA/JPV/JVM  
SHORT TERM...BGM  
LONG TERM...ELH  
AVIATION...JPV/JVM  
FIRE WEATHER...IAA/BGM  
HYDROLOGY...IAA/BGM  
 
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