699
FXUS61 KALY 091138
AFDALY
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
638 AM EST MON NOV 9 2009
SYNOPSIS
HIGH PRESSURE OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST WILL PRODUCE DRY
AND WARM WEATHER TODAY. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE 10 TO 15 DEGREES
ABOVE NORMAL. A WEAK AND DRY COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION
MONDAY NIGHT...WITH HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING BACK IN FROM THE WESTERN
GREAT LAKES REGION TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY.
NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/
AS OF 300 AM EST...THE WATER VAPOR LOOP WITH GFS H500 HEIGHTS
OVERLAYED DISPLAYS A BROAD UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE EAST COAST.
HURRICANE IDA CONTINUES TO MEANDER SLOWLY N/NE IN THE GULF OF
MEXICO. A SHORT WAVE TROUGH CONTINUES TO CHUG SLOWLY EAST FROM THE
UPPER MIDWEST. THE TREND WILL BE FOR THE ANOMALOUSLY STRONG UPPER
LEVEL RIDGE TO HOLD AT LEAST FOR ANOTHER DAY WITH HIGH TEMPS ABOVE
NORMAL TODAY. A WEAK AND MOISTURE STARVED COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH
FROM THE GREAT LAKES REGION TONIGHT.
H925/H850 TEMPS OF 12-13C WILL ALLOW MAX TEMPS TO GET INTO THE 60S
OVER THE FCST AREA. SOME 70F READINGS MAY BE POSSIBLE OVER THE MID
HUDSON VALLEY. THERE WILL ALSO BE A FEW CIRRUS AROUND BASED ON THE
RH PROFILES/MODEL SOUNDINGS. WE ARE EXPECTING HIGHS TO BE IN THE
MID TO UPPER 60S IN THE VALLEYS...AND LOWER TO MID 60S OVER THE
HILLS AND MTNS. THE H850 SW FLOW ALOFT WILL INCREASE TO 30-40 KTS
WITH THE BERMUDA LIKE SFC HIGH IN CONTROL OFF THE ATLANTIC
SEABOARD.
SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/
MONDAY NIGHT...A WEAK COLD FRONT AND ITS ASSOCIATED SHORT WAVE
TROUGH APPROACH FROM THE ST LAWRENCE RIVER VALLEY. THE BEST
FORCING WITH THE SFC WAVE TO THIS BOUNDARY IS WELL NORTH OF THE
FCST AREA OVER S-CNTRL QUEBEC. THE FRONT IS MOISTURE STARVED...AND
WE ARE NOT PLACING ANY POPS FOR MEASURABLE PCPN IN THE GRIDS AT
THIS TIME. WE DID INCREASE THE CLOUDS...AND HAVE THEM THICKEN AND
LOWER A BIT /MAINLY MID AND HIGH CLOUDS THOUGH/. WEAK...BUT
NOTICEABLE COLD AIR ADVECTION OCCURS AT H850 WITH TEMPS FALLING TO
5-9C FROM NW TO SE OVER THE FCST AREA. MINS WILL BE MILDER THAN
THIS MORNING BY 10-15 DEGREES. EXPECT MINS IN 40S IN THE VALLEYS...AND
MID 30S TO L40S OVER THE HILLS AND MTNS.
TUESDAY...THE FRONT SAGS SOUTH OF THE REGION AS SFC HIGH PRESSURE
RIDGES IN FROM THE W-CNTRL GREAT LAKES REGION. DESPITE H850 TEMPS
OF 5-8C...GOOD MIXING WILL OCCUR FROM H800-850 WITH HIGH TEMPS
STILL IN THE U50S TO L60S IN THE VALLEYS...WITH U40S TO MID 50S
OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN. THE MOISTURE FROM IDA BEGINS TO STREAM UP
THE MID ATLANTIC REGION DURING THE DAY.
TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT...THE DETERMINISTIC GUIDANCE
AND ENSEMBLES ARE MAINLY IN STRONG AGREEMENT THAT IDA/S MOISTURE WILL
NOT IMPACT THE FORECAST AREA. THE SOLE OUTLIER IS THE GFS...WHERE
IT WOULD BRING SOME RAIN INTO THE FCST AREA ON WED. THE CANADIAN
GUIDANCE...NAM...ECMWF...AND GEFS ALL SHOW A TROUGH ALOFT MOVING
DOWNSTREAM TUE NIGHT WITH HEIGHTS INCREASING UPSTREAM...AND A
STRONG SFC ANTICYCLONE RIDGING IN FROM THE ERN GREAT LAKES AND
EXTREME SOUTHEASTERN CANADA. THIS SFC HIGH WOULD BLOCK OR SHUNT
THE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE FROM CREEPING IN FROM THE SOUTH. WE DID
PLACE SOME SLIGHT CHANCE POPS IN FOR ULSTER/DUTCHESS/LITCHFIELD
COUNTIES TUE NIGHT/WED AM FOR POSSIBLY A ISOLD SHOWER/SPRINKLE FROM
THE MID LEVEL WARM AIR ADVECTION. WED WILL BE COOLER THAN THE
PREVIOUS FEW DAYS WITH THE STRONG ONSHORE FLOW FROM THE E/NE...IN
AND ABOVE THE BOUNDARY LAYER. EXPECT HIGHS FROM THE MID 40S TO MID
50S. WE WENT THE OPTIMISTIC ROUTE WITH PARTLY/MOSTLY SUNNY
CONDITIONS VIA THE ECMWF/NAM. ANY SHIFT IN IDA/S TRACK OF ITS
RESIDUAL MOISTURE COULD CHANGE THE FORECAST HERE A BIT...BUT THE
VAST MAJORITY OF THE GUIDANCE ALLUDES TO A BLOCKING HIGH TO THE
N/NW TO PREVENT A TRACK CLOSER TO THE COAST. HENCE...PERSISTENCE
FOR NOVEMBER HAS BEEN DRY...THEN DRY IT APPEARS IT WILL REMAIN AT
THIS TIME.
LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/
EXPECT DRY WEATHER TO CONTINUE THROUGH SATURDAY AND THEN INTRODUCE
SLIGHT CHANCE TO LOW CHANCE POPS SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY.
DISCREPANCIES STILL EXIST BETWEEN GFS AND ECMWF/GLOBAL GEM. GFS
BRINGS MOISTURE FROM IDA UP THE EASTERN SEABOARD AND INTO SRN HALF OF
FA IN A STRONG SOUTHWEST FLOW. MEANWHILE ECMWF AND GLOBAL GEM BRING
STRONG RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS NE US THAT APPEARS AS THOUGH IT
WILL DEFLECT THE MOISTURE FROM IDA SOUTH AND EAST OF FA LEAVING AREA
DRY THROUGH SATURDAY. BY SATURDAY NIGHT A COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO
DROP SOUTHEAST FROM CANADA BRINGING A CHANCE OF SHOWERS WHICH MAY
LAST INTO SUNDAY DEPENDING ON HOW QUICKLY THE FRONT MOVES THROUGH
THE REGION.
TEMPERATURES FOR THE PERIOD THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY LOOK TO BE
SEASONABLE WITH HIGHS MAINLY IN THE 40S TO LOWER 50S AND LOWS IN THE
20S TO MID 30S.
AVIATION /12Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/
A LARGE RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS THE NORTHEAST WILL SLIDE OFF
THE EASTERN SEABOARD LATER TODAY.
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD ENDING AT 12Z
TUE. SKC CONDITIONS WILL GRADUALLY GIVE WAY TO SCT250 THIS MRNG
THEN BKN200-250 THIS AFT AND BKN150 THIS EVENING.
WINDS WILL BE LIGHT AND VARIABLE EARLY THIS MORNING AND THEN
BECOME S-SW AND INCREASE TO 8-12 KTS MID TO LATE MORNING
WITH GUSTS TO 18 KTS AT KALB AFT 16Z. WINDS WILL START TO
DIMINISH AFTER SUNSET AND ONCE AGAIN BECOME LIGHT AND VARIABLE
EARLY THIS EVENING.
OUTLOOK...
TUE-FRI...VFR. NO SIG WX.
HYDROLOGY
NO HYDRO PROBLEMS ARE ANTICIPATED THE NEXT 5 DAYS. AT THIS
TIME...THE RESIDUAL MOISTURE FROM IDA WILL MISS THE HYDRO SERVICE
AREA /HSA/. THE HSA COULD REMAIN DRY THROUGH THE WEEK.
FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR WEBSITE.
ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.
SYNOPSIS...WASULA
NEAR TERM...WASULA
SHORT TERM...WASULA
LONG TERM...11
AVIATION...11
HYDROLOGY...WASULA
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