624  
FNUS72 KMFL 300954  
FWSMFL  
 
SPOT FORECAST FOR COLLIER INCIDENT REQUEST...COLLIER COUNTY EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT  
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL  
554 AM EDT SUN APR 30 2017  
 
FORECAST IS BASED ON REQUEST TIME OF 0600 EDT ON APRIL 30.  
IF CONDITIONS BECOME UNREPRESENTATIVE...CONTACT THE NATIONAL WEATHER  
SERVICE.  
 
PLEASE CONTACT OUR OFFICE AT (305) 229-4522, IF YOU HAVE QUESTIONS  
OR CONCERNS WITH THIS FORECAST.  
 
...FIRE WEATHER WATCH IN EFFECT FROM 2 PM EDT THIS AFTERNOON  
THROUGH THIS EVENING...  
   
DISCUSSION
 
 
HIGH PRESSURE TO THE NORTH OF THE REGION WILL MAINTAIN WARM WEATHER TODAY.  
HOWEVER, MORE CLOUDINESS COULD PREVENT TEMPS FROM GOING AS HIGH AS THEY  
DID YESTERDAY. THAT SAID GIVEN THE STRONG HIGH AND THAT IT DOES NOT  
TAKE MUCH INSOLATION THERE IS STILL A GOOD CHANCE TEMPS COULD GET UP  
TO NEAR RECORD AGAIN TODAY. THIS COUPLED WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR MIXING  
MEANS THERE IS A CONCERN FOR RED FLAG CONDITIONS TO BE MET AGAIN TODAY  
EVEN WHEN NOT FORECAST. THEREFORE, DECIDED TO KEEP THE FIRE WEATHER  
WATCH IN EFFECT FOR THIS AFTERNOON. SOMETHING WE WILL MONITOR CAREFULLY.  
A BRIEF LIGHT RAIN SHOWER CANNOT BE RULED OUT TODAY BUT IS FAR MORE  
LIKELY TO REMAIN DRY. MODERATE TO STRONG TRANSPORT WINDS WILL RESULT  
IN VERY GOOD DISPERSION CONDITIONS ONCE AGAIN. GIVEN STRONG EAST  
SOUTHEAST WINDS NO SEA BREEZE IS EXPECTED.  
   
TODAY
 
 
SKY/WEATHER.........PARTLY SUNNY (50-60 PERCENT).  
MAX TEMPERATURE.....AROUND 89.  
MIN HUMIDITY........48 PERCENT.  
WIND (20 FT)........SOUTHEAST WINDS 5 TO 14 MPH.  
CHANCE OF PCPN......10 PERCENT.  
LAL.................1.  
MIXING HEIGHT.......300-1400 FT AGL...INCREASING TO 4600-5100 FT  
AGL.  
TRANSPORT WINDS.....EAST 6 TO 12 MPH...INCREASING TO SOUTHEAST 17  
TO 23 MPH IN THE LATE MORNING AND AFTERNOON.  
DISPERSION INDEX....7...INCREASING TO 61.  
LVORI...............5.  
CEILING (KFT).......23912...INCREASING TO 25000 IN THE  
MORNING,...THEN DECREASING TO 9000...DECREASING  
TO 6312 EARLY...DECREASING TO 6102...DECREASING  
TO 5103 EARLY IN THE AFTERNOON...INCREASING TO  
25000.  
 
TIME (EDT) 6 AM 8 AM 10 AM NOON 2 PM 4 PM  
SKY (%).........72 72 72 54 36 36  
WEATHER COV.....  
WEATHER TYPE....NONE NONE NONE NONE NONE NONE  
TSTM COV........  
TEMP............72 72 81 86 88 88  
RH..............93 93 67 55 48 50  
20 FT WIND......E 4 E 5 E 8 SE 9 SE 9 SE 10  
20 FT WIND GUST.5 15 15 15 15  
20 FT WIND DIR..090 090 110 120 120 120  
MIX HGT (FT)....300 300 2500 4100 5100 5100  
MIXNG WIND......E 6 E 7 E 17 SE 23 SE 21 SE 20  
DISPERSION IDX..5 8 39 64 64 60  
LVORI...........7 6 2 1 1 1  
CHC OF PCPN (%).10 10 10 10 10 10  
LAL.............1 1 1 1 1 1  
   
TONIGHT
 
 
SKY/WEATHER.........PARTLY CLOUDY (30-40 PERCENT)...THEN BECOMING  
MOSTLY CLOUDY (45-55 PERCENT).  
MIN TEMPERATURE.....AROUND 72.  
MAX HUMIDITY........93 PERCENT.  
WIND (20 FT)........EAST WINDS 5 TO 13 MPH...BECOMING LIGHT.  
CHANCE OF PCPN......10 PERCENT.  
LAL.................1.  
MIXING HEIGHT.......3100-4100 FT AGL...DECREASING TO 300-2100 FT  
AGL UNTIL JUST AFTER MIDNIGHT.  
TRANSPORT WINDS.....EAST 13 TO 22 MPH...DECREASING TO 5 TO 8 MPH  
AROUND MIDNIGHT.  
DISPERSION INDEX....56...DECREASING TO 8.  
LVORI...............4.  
CEILING (KFT).......24981.  
   
MONDAY
 
 
SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY SUNNY (45-55 PERCENT). A SLIGHT CHANCE  
OF SHOWERS THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON. A CHANCE OF  
SHOWERS AND A SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS  
LATE IN THE AFTERNOON.  
MAX TEMPERATURE.....AROUND 89.  
MIN HUMIDITY........52 PERCENT.  
WIND (20 FT)........LIGHT WINDS...BECOMING SOUTH 5 TO 9 MPH. GUSTY  
AND ERRATIC WINDS EXPECTED NEAR THUNDERSTORMS  
LATE IN THE AFTERNOON.  
CHANCE OF PCPN......20 PERCENT.  
LAL.................1 UNTIL 1400,...THEN 2.  
MIXING HEIGHT.......300-1500 FT AGL...INCREASING TO 4400-5000 FT  
AGL.  
TRANSPORT WINDS.....SOUTHEAST 5 TO 10 MPH...BECOMING SOUTH 12 TO 18  
MPH IN THE LATE MORNING AND AFTERNOON.  
DISPERSION INDEX....5...INCREASING TO 21 LATE IN THE  
MORNING,...THEN INCREASING TO 45...INCREASING  
TO 62 EARLY...DECREASING TO 49...DECREASING TO  
41 LATE IN THE AFTERNOON.  
LVORI...............4.  
CEILING (KFT).......25000...DECREASING TO 12000.  
 

 
FORECASTER...SANTOS  
REQUESTED BY...RICK ZYVOLOSKI  
TYPE OF REQUEST...WILDFIRE  
.TAG 1708025.1/MFL  
 
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