200  
FNUS72 KMFL 211505  
FWSMFL  
 
SPOT FORECAST FOR BUZZARD WILDFIRE...NPS BIG CYPRESS  
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL  
1105 AM EDT SAT APR 21 2018  
 
FORECAST IS BASED ON FORECAST START TIME OF 0700 EDT ON APRIL 21.  
IF CONDITIONS BECOME UNREPRESENTATIVE...CONTACT THE NATIONAL WEATHER  
SERVICE.  
 
PLEASE CONTACT OUR OFFICE AT (305) 229-4522, IF YOU HAVE QUESTIONS  
OR CONCERNS WITH THIS FORECAST.  
   
DISCUSSION
 
 
HIGH PRESSURE TO THE NORTH, AS WELL AS A STALLED BOUNDARY, WILL  
BRING AN EASTERLY GENERAL WIND TO SOUTH FLORIDA. IT WILL ALSO  
BRING THE POSSIBILITY OF SOME SHOWERS AND POSSIBLY A FEW  
THUNDERSTORMS TO THE AREA. HOWEVER, THE BEST CHANCES ARE FORECAST  
TO REMAIN NORTH OF THE BURN AREA UNTIL EARLY THIS EVENING, WITH  
ONLY A SLIGHT CHANCE OF A THUNDERSTORM OVERNIGHT, AND A CHANCE FOR  
TOMORROW. THE GULF SEA BREEZE IS FORECAST TO DEVELOP, BUT REMAIN ALONG  
THE COASTAL AREAS TODAY, MAYBE PUSHING IN TOWARDS SR 29 BY THIS  
EVENING. HOWEVER, CLOUD COVER AND THE EASTERLY GENERAL WIND MAY  
HAMPER THE DEVELOPMENT.  
 
   
REST OF TODAY
 
 
SKY/WEATHER.........SUNNY (5-15 PERCENT)...THEN BECOMING PARTLY  
SUNNY (45-55 PERCENT). A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND  
A SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS LATE IN THE  
AFTERNOON.  
MAX TEMPERATURE.....AROUND 89.  
MIN HUMIDITY........44 PERCENT.  
WIND (20 FT)........LIGHT WINDS...BECOMING EAST 5 TO 6 MPH  
EARLY,...THEN BECOMING LIGHT LATE IN THE  
AFTERNOON...BECOMING EAST 5 TO 7 MPH LATE IN  
THE AFTERNOON. GUSTY AND ERRATIC WINDS EXPECTED  
NEAR THUNDERSTORMS LATE IN THE AFTERNOON.  
CHANCE OF PCPN......30 PERCENT.  
LAL.................NO TSTMS UNTIL 1700,...THEN 1-8 STRIKES.  
MIXING HEIGHT.......300-1400 FT AGL...INCREASING TO 4900-5400 FT  
AGL.  
TRANSPORT WINDS.....EAST 2 TO 9 MPH...INCREASING TO 9 TO 12 MPH  
EARLY.  
DISPERSION INDEX....5...INCREASING TO 60.  
LVORI...............4.  
 
TIME (EDT) 7AM 8AM 9AM 10A 11A 12P 1PM 2PM 3PM 4PM 5PM  
SKY (%).........0 15 15 15 51 51 51 51 51 51 52  
WEATHER COV..... CHC  
WEATHER TYPE.... RW  
TSTM COV........ SCH  
TEMP............63 65 71 76 79 81 84 86 87 87 88  
RH..............90 100 97 85 71 60 51 46 46 45 45  
20 FT WIND DIR..NE E E E E E E E E E E  
20 FT WIND DIR..050 080 070 080 090 070 070 090 070 070 100  
20 FT WIND SPD..2 3 3 3 6 6 5 6 3 5 7  
20 FT WIND GUST. 4 4 5 7 7 6 7 5 6 8  
MIX HGT (KFT)...0.3 0.3 1.4 2.6 3.7 4.3 4.9 5.4 5.4 5.3 5.2  
TRANSP WIND DIR.E E E E E E E E E E E  
TRANSP WIND SPD.2 3 7 9 12 12 10 9 9 10 10  
DISPERSION IDX..1 4 9 32 51 56 57 56 58 60 53  
LVORI...........6 5 4 3 2 1 1 1 1 1 1  
CHC OF PCPN (%).0 0 0 0 10 10 10 10 10 10 30  
LAL.............1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 2  
   
TONIGHT
 
 
SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY CLOUDY (45-55 PERCENT)...THEN BECOMING  
PARTLY CLOUDY (45-55 PERCENT)...THEN BECOMING  
MOSTLY CLOUDY (45-55 PERCENT). A CHANCE OF  
SHOWERS IN THE EVENING. A SLIGHT CHANCE OF  
THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THE NIGHT. A SLIGHT  
CHANCE OF SHOWERS AFTER MIDNIGHT.  
MIN TEMPERATURE.....AROUND 65.  
MAX HUMIDITY........100 PERCENT.  
WIND (20 FT)........LIGHT WINDS. GUSTY AND ERRATIC WINDS EXPECTED  
NEAR THUNDERSTORMS IN THE EVENING. GUSTY AND  
ERRATIC WINDS EXPECTED NEAR THUNDERSTORMS EARLY  
IN THE MORNING.  
CHANCE OF PCPN......30 PERCENT.  
LAL.................1-8 STRIKES UNTIL 2300,...THEN NO TSTMS UNTIL  
0200,...THEN 1-8 STRIKES UNTIL 0500,...THEN NO  
TSTMS.  
MIXING HEIGHT.......2000-3600 FT AGL...DECREASING TO 300 FT AGL  
UNTIL JUST AFTER MIDNIGHT.  
TRANSPORT WINDS.....EAST 3 TO 9 MPH.  
DISPERSION INDEX....37...DECREASING TO 2.  
LVORI...............9.  
 
TIME (EDT) 6PM 7PM 8PM 9PM 10P 11P MID 1AM 2AM 3AM 4AM 5AM  
SKY (%).........52 52 48 48 48 51 51 51 51 51 51 51  
WEATHER COV.....CHC CHC SCH SCH SCH SCH SCH SCH SCH  
WEATHER TYPE....RW RW RW RW RW RW RW RW RW  
TSTM COV........SCH SCH SCH SCH SCH SCH SCH SCH  
TEMP............87 84 79 77 74 72 71 69 67 67 66 66  
RH..............48 53 64 71 79 87 90 93 100 97 100 97  
20 FT WIND DIR..E SE E E E E E E E E E E  
20 FT WIND DIR..100 130 110 100 080 100 090 070 080 070 070 080  
20 FT WIND SPD..3 3 3 2 3 3 2 3 3 3 3 3  
20 FT WIND GUST.5 5 5 4 5 4 4 4 4 4  
MIX HGT (KFT)...3.6 2.0 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.3  
TRANSP WIND DIR.E E E E E E E E E E E E  
TRANSP WIND SPD.9 7 5 5 5 5 5 3 3 3 3 3  
DISPERSION IDX..37 17 4 2 2 3 2 2 2 2 2 2  
LVORI...........1 2 3 3 5 6 6 7 8 8 9 8  
CHC OF PCPN (%).30 30 20 20 20 10 10 10 20 20 20 20  
LAL.............2 2 2 2 2 1 1 1 2 2 2 1  
   
SUNDAY
 
 
SKY/WEATHER.........PARTLY SUNNY (60-70 PERCENT). A CHANCE OF  
SHOWERS IN THE MORNING. A CHANCE OF  
THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THE DAY. SHOWERS LIKELY  
IN THE AFTERNOON.  
MAX TEMPERATURE.....AROUND 87.  
MIN HUMIDITY........48 PERCENT.  
WIND (20 FT)........LIGHT WINDS...BECOMING SOUTHEAST 5 TO 7 MPH IN  
THE LATE MORNING AND AFTERNOON. GUSTY AND  
ERRATIC WINDS EXPECTED NEAR THUNDERSTORMS  
EARLY. GUSTY AND ERRATIC WINDS EXPECTED NEAR  
THUNDERSTORMS EARLY.  
CHANCE OF PCPN......70 PERCENT.  
LAL.................NO TSTMS UNTIL 0800,...THEN 1-8 STRIKES UNTIL  
1100,...THEN 9-15 STRIKES.  
MIXING HEIGHT.......300-1300 FT AGL...INCREASING TO 4600-4700 FT  
AGL.  
TRANSPORT WINDS.....EAST 3 TO 12 MPH...BECOMING SOUTHEAST 13 TO 15  
MPH EARLY.  
DISPERSION INDEX....3...INCREASING TO 41.  
LVORI...............1.  
 
TIME (EDT) 6 AM 8 AM 10 AM NOON 2 PM 4 PM  
SKY (%).........51 61 61 63 76 76  
WEATHER COV.....S CHC CHANCE CHANCE CHANCE LIKELY LIKELY  
WEATHER TYPE....RNSHWR RNSHWR RNSHWR RNSHWR RNSHWR RNSHWR  
TSTM COV........ S CHC S CHC CHANCE CHANCE CHANCE  
TEMP............65 67 79 84 86 87  
RH..............100 100 72 59 51 48  
20 FT WIND DIR..E E E SE SE SE  
20 FT WIND DIR..080 080 100 120 130 130  
20 FT WIND SPD..3 3 5 5 7 5  
20 FT WIND GUST.4 5 6 6 8 6  
MIX HGT (FT)....300 300 2300 3800 4600 4700  
TRANSPORT WIND..E 3 E 5 E 12 SE 15 SE 14 SE 13  
DISPERSION IDX..2 4 30 39 41 38  
LVORI...........10 9 3 1 1 1  
CHC OF PCPN (%).20 50 50 50 70 70  
LAL.............1 2 2 3 3 3  
 

 
FORECASTER...IPPOLITI  
REQUESTED BY...ODY ANDERSON  
TYPE OF REQUEST...WILDFIRE  
.TAG 1806261.13/MFL  
 
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