233  
FNUS72 KMLB 171003  
FWSMLB  
 
SPOT FORECAST FOR RA TEST BURN...FLORIDA PARK SERVICE  
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MELBOURNE FL  
603 AM EDT TUE OCT 17 2017  
 
FORECAST IS BASED ON IGNITION TIME OF 0600 EDT ON OCTOBER 17.  
IF CONDITIONS BECOME UNREPRESENTATIVE...CONTACT THE NATIONAL WEATHER  
SERVICE.  
   
DISCUSSION
 
A FRONTAL BOUNDARY ACCOMPANIED BY SHOWERS AND A  
FEW STORMS WILL SINK SOUTHWARD THROUGH CENTRAL FLORIDA TODAY THEN  
STALL ACROSS SOUTH FLORIDA BY TONIGHT. LOW LEVEL WINDS AT THE BURN  
SITE WILL BE NORTH IMMEDIATELY BEHIND THE FRONT THIS MORNING AND  
BECOME PROGRESSIVELY NORTHEAST INTO THE AFTERNOON. SPEEDS WILL BE  
10-12 MPH AND OCCASIONALLY 15 MPH. TRANSPORT WINDS WILL ALSO INCREASE  
OUT OF THE NORTHEAST 18-24 MPH.  
   
TODAY
 
 
SKY/WEATHER.........CLOUDY (85-95 PERCENT). SHOWERS LIKELY AND  
SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS.  
CHANCE OF PCPN......60 PERCENT.  
LAL.................1-8 STRIKES.  
MAX TEMPERATURE.....AROUND 79.  
MIN HUMIDITY........76 PERCENT.  
WIND (20 FT)........NORTHEAST WINDS 6 TO 12 MPH. GUSTY AND ERRATIC  
WINDS EXPECTED NEAR THUNDERSTORMS.  
MIXING HEIGHT.......500-2400 FT AGL INCREASING TO 2100-2500 FT AGL  
EARLY IN THE AFTERNOON.  
TRANSPORT WINDS.....NORTHEAST 10 TO 18 MPH INCREASING TO 20 TO 24  
MPH IN THE AFTERNOON.  
DISPERSION INDEX....11 INCREASING TO 48.  
LVORI...............6 DECREASING TO 4 IN THE LATE MORNING AND  
AFTERNOON.  
 
TIME (EDT) 6AM 7AM 8AM 9AM 10A 11A 12P 1PM 2PM 3PM 4PM 5PM  
SKY (%).........85 85 90 90 90 90 90 90 94 94 94 94  
WEATHER COV.....LKY LKY CHC CHC CHC CHC LKY LKY LKY LKY LKY LKY  
WEATHER TYPE....RW RW RW RW RW RW RW RW RW RW RW RW  
TSTM COV........SCH SCH SCH SCH SCH SCH SCH SCH SCH SCH SCH SCH  
CHC OF PCPN (%).60 60 60 60 60 60 60 60 60 60 60 60  
LAL.............2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2  
TEMP............73 73 73 74 76 77 77 78 78 77 76 75  
RH..............93 93 93 90 85 82 82 76 76 79 85 87  
20 FT WIND DIR..N N N N N NE NE NE NE NE NE NE  
20 FT WIND SPD..7 7 8 8 9 10 12 12 12 13 13 13  
20 FT WIND GUST. 10 10 10 15 15 15  
MIX HGT (KFT)...0.5 0.8 1.0 1.4 1.7 2.1 2.2 2.4 2.5 2.4 2.3 2.1  
TRANSP WIND DIR.N N N N NE NE NE NE NE NE NE NE  
TRANSP WIND SPD.10 10 12 14 16 18 20 21 21 23 24 23  
DISPERSION IDX..7 7 15 22 29 36 40 44 45 49 50 46  
LVORI...........6 6 5 4 4 3 3 3 3 3 4 4  
   
TONIGHT
 
 
SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY CLOUDY (80-90 PERCENT). SHOWERS LIKELY  
AND SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS EARLY IN THE  
EVENING, THEN CHANCE OF SHOWERS EARLY IN THE  
EVENING.  
CHANCE OF PCPN......60 PERCENT.  
LAL.................1-8 STRIKES UNTIL 2000, THEN NO TSTMS.  
MIN TEMPERATURE.....AROUND 69.  
MAX HUMIDITY........93 PERCENT.  
WIND (20 FT)........NORTH WINDS 6 TO 12 MPH. GUSTY AND ERRATIC  
WINDS EXPECTED NEAR THUNDERSTORMS EARLY IN THE  
EVENING.  
MIXING HEIGHT.......300-1900 FT AGL.  
TRANSPORT WINDS.....NORTHEAST 12 TO 20 MPH SHIFTING TO THE NORTH 7  
TO 12 MPH IN THE LATE EVENING AND OVERNIGHT.  
DISPERSION INDEX....36 DECREASING TO 9.  
LVORI...............5 INCREASING TO 6 AFTER MIDNIGHT.  
 
TIME (EDT) 6 PM 8 PM 10 PM MIDNGT 2 AM 4 AM  
SKY (%).........94 87 87 87 71 71  
WEATHER COV.....LIKELY CHANCE CHANCE CHANCE CHANCE CHANCE  
WEATHER TYPE....RNSHWR RNSHWR RNSHWR RNSHWR RNSHWR RNSHWR  
TSTM COV........S CHC  
CHC OF PCPN (%).60 40 40 40 40 40  
LAL.............2 1 1 1 1 1  
TEMP............74 73 72 71 70 70  
RH..............87 87 90 93 93 93  
20 FT WIND......NE 13 N 12 N 9 N 8 N 7 N 7  
20 FT WIND GUST.15 10 10  
MIX HGT (FT)....1900 1400 800 500 300 300  
TRANSPORT WIND..NE 20 NE 12 NE 12 NE 10 N 8 N 7  
DISPERSION IDX..36 13 10 7 5 5  
LVORI...........4 4 5 6 6 6  
   
WEDNESDAY
 
 
SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY CLOUDY (65-75 PERCENT). CHANCE OF  
SHOWERS.  
CHANCE OF PCPN......40 PERCENT.  
LAL.................NO TSTMS.  
MAX TEMPERATURE.....AROUND 84.  
MIN HUMIDITY........64 PERCENT.  
WIND (20 FT)........NORTHEAST WINDS 6 TO 14 MPH INCREASING TO  
AROUND 16 MPH LATE IN THE AFTERNOON.  
MIXING HEIGHT.......300-1900 FT AGL INCREASING TO 2700-3700 FT AGL  
LATE IN THE MORNING.  
TRANSPORT WINDS.....NORTHEAST 7 TO 15 MPH INCREASING TO 21 TO 28  
MPH IN THE LATE MORNING AND AFTERNOON.  
DISPERSION INDEX....5 INCREASING TO 69.  
LVORI...............6 DECREASING TO 4 LATE IN THE MORNING, THEN  
DECREASING TO 1 EARLY IN THE AFTERNOON  
INCREASING TO 3 LATE IN THE AFTERNOON.  
 
TIME (EDT) 6 AM 9 AM NOON 3 PM  
SKY (%).........71 70 70 70  
WEATHER COV.....CHANCE CHANCE CHANCE CHANCE  
WEATHER TYPE....RNSHWR RNSHWR RNSHWR RNSHWR  
TSTM COV........  
CHC OF PCPN (%).40 40 40 40  
LAL.............1 1 1 1  
TEMP............70 73 80 81  
RH..............93 84 71 68  
20 FT WIND......N 7 NE 10 NE 13G15 NE 17G25  
MIX HGT (FT)....300 1100 3000 3400  
TRANSPORT WIND..N 7 NE 15 NE 26 NE 28  
DISPERSION IDX..5 20 64 71  
LVORI...........6 4 3 1  
 

 
FORECASTER...SHARP  
REQUESTED BY...BENJAMIN BANDOR  
TYPE OF REQUEST...PRESCRIBED  
.TAG 1717328.0/MLB  
.EMAIL BEN.BANDOR@DEP.STATE.FL.US  
 
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.

The Nexlab FL Page Main Text Page