512  
FNUS72 KMLB 271508  
FWSMLB  
 
SPOT FORECAST FOR TUCKER FIRE...FLORIDA FOREST SERVICE  
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MELBOURNE FL  
1108 AM EDT TUE JUN 27 2017  
 
FORECAST IS BASED ON REQUEST TIME OF 1200 EDT ON JUNE 27.  
IF CONDITIONS BECOME UNREPRESENTATIVE...CONTACT THE NATIONAL WEATHER  
SERVICE.  
   
DISCUSSION
 
 
   
REST OF TODAY
 
A WEAKENING FRONTAL TROUGH WILL SLOWLY SAG TOWARD  
CENTRAL FLORIDA. THIS BOUNDARY, COMBINED WITH AFTERNOON HEATING AND  
ASSOCIATED MOISTURE, WILL AGAIN SUPPORT STORMS. SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL BECOME  
SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS DURING THE AFTERNOON AND INTO THIS EVENING.  
LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS COUPLED WITH AFTERNOON RAINFALL WILL  
LEAD TO NEAR SATURATED CONDITIONS, WITH SURFACE RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES  
NEAR 100 PERCENT AFTER 1000 PM AND OVERNIGHT.  
 
WHILE DENSE OR WIDESPREAD FOG TYPICALLY DOESN'T FORM DURING THE WET  
SEASON IN FLORIDA, THIS SETUP APPEARS TO FAVOR SIGNIFICANT SETTLING  
OF SMOKE NEAR AND DOWNWIND OF THE BURN ZONE.  
 
SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY CLOUDY (70-80 PERCENT). SCATTERED  
SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS EARLY IN THE  
AFTERNOON, THEN NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND  
THUNDERSTORMS EARLY IN THE AFTERNOON.  
CHANCE OF PCPN......70 PERCENT.  
LAL.................9-15 STRIKES UNTIL 1400, THEN 16-25 STRIKES.  
MAX TEMPERATURE.....AROUND 92.  
MIN HUMIDITY........57 PERCENT.  
WIND (20 FT)........EAST WINDS 6 TO 7 MPH. GUSTY AND ERRATIC WINDS  
EXPECTED NEAR THUNDERSTORMS.  
MIXING HEIGHT.......2500-4000 FT AGL DECREASING TO 1800 FT AGL LATE  
IN THE AFTERNOON.  
TRANSPORT WINDS.....NORTHWEST 3 TO 7 MPH SHIFTING TO THE NORTHEAST  
5 TO 6 MPH LATE IN THE AFTERNOON.  
DISPERSION INDEX....22.  
LVORI...............3.  
 
TIME (EDT) 12P 1PM 2PM 3PM 4PM 5PM  
SKY (%).........63 63 77 77 77 85  
WEATHER COV.....SCT SCT NUM NUM NUM NUM  
WEATHER TYPE....RW RW RW RW RW RW  
TSTM COV........ISO ISO NUM NUM NUM NUM  
CHC OF PCPN (%).70 70 70 70 70 70  
LAL.............4 4 4 4 4 4  
TEMP............89 92 90 87 85 83  
RH..............64 57 61 66 71 76  
20 FT WIND DIR..SW S SE SE E E  
20 FT WIND SPD..6 6 6 7 8 8  
20 FT WIND GUST. 10 10  
MIX HGT (KFT)...3.3 3.7 4.0 3.3 2.5 1.8  
TRANSP WIND DIR.W W W NW NE E  
TRANSP WIND SPD.7 5 3 3 5 6  
DISPERSION IDX..24 22 21 20 20 19  
LVORI...........3 2 2 3 3 3  
   
TONIGHT
 
 
SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY CLOUDY (75-85 PERCENT). NUMEROUS SHOWERS  
AND THUNDERSTORMS EARLY IN THE EVENING, THEN  
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS  
EARLY IN THE EVENING. ISOLATED SHOWERS AFTER  
MIDNIGHT.  
CHANCE OF PCPN......70 PERCENT.  
LAL.................16-25 STRIKES UNTIL 2000, THEN 1-8 STRIKES  
UNTIL 2300, THEN NO TSTMS.  
MIN TEMPERATURE.....AROUND 72.  
MAX HUMIDITY........100 PERCENT.  
WIND (20 FT)........NORTHEAST WINDS 5 TO 7 MPH EARLY IN THE EVENING  
BECOMING LIGHT. GUSTY AND ERRATIC WINDS  
EXPECTED NEAR THUNDERSTORMS IN THE EVENING.  
MIXING HEIGHT.......400-1500 FT AGL.  
TRANSPORT WINDS.....EAST AROUND 8 MPH SHIFTING TO THE SOUTH 8 TO 9  
MPH EARLY IN THE EVENING, THEN SHIFTING TO THE  
SOUTHEAST 3 TO 7 MPH IN THE LATE EVENING AND  
EARLY MORNING SHIFTING TO THE NORTH AROUND 3  
MPH EARLY IN THE MORNING.  
DISPERSION INDEX....9 DECREASING TO 3 IN THE LATE EVENING AND  
OVERNIGHT.  
LVORI...............4 INCREASING TO 8.  
 
TIME (EDT) 6 PM 8 PM 10 PM MIDNGT 2 AM 4 AM  
SKY (%).........85 86 86 86 73 73  
WEATHER COV.....NUMRUS SCTTRD SCTTRD ISOLTD ISOLTD  
WEATHER TYPE....RNSHWR RNSHWR RNSHWR RNSHWR RNSHWR NONE  
TSTM COV........NUMRUS ISOLTD ISOLTD  
CHC OF PCPN (%).70 50 50 50 50 50  
LAL.............4 2 2 1 1 1  
TEMP............81 77 76 75 74 73  
RH..............81 89 90 93 93 95  
20 FT WIND......E 8 NE 6 E 3 E 2 SE 3 NE 2  
20 FT WIND GUST.10 5 5  
MIX HGT (FT)....1500 1000 700 500 400 400  
TRANSPORT WIND..E 8 S 9 E 7 E 5 SE 5 NE 3  
DISPERSION IDX..13 6 3 2 2 2  
LVORI...........4 6 6 7 7 8  
   
WEDNESDAY
 
 
SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY CLOUDY (65-75 PERCENT). SLIGHT CHANCE OF  
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS EARLY IN THE MORNING.  
CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IN THE  
AFTERNOON.  
CHANCE OF PCPN......50 PERCENT.  
LAL.................NO TSTMS UNTIL 0800, THEN 1-8 STRIKES UNTIL  
1100, THEN 9-15 STRIKES.  
MAX TEMPERATURE.....AROUND 91.  
MIN HUMIDITY........59 PERCENT.  
WIND (20 FT)........LIGHT WINDS BECOMING EAST 5 TO 8 MPH LATE IN  
THE MORNING. GUSTY AND ERRATIC WINDS EXPECTED  
NEAR THUNDERSTORMS EARLY IN THE MORNING.  
MIXING HEIGHT.......300-1900 FT AGL INCREASING TO 2600-4100 FT AGL  
LATE IN THE MORNING.  
TRANSPORT WINDS.....NORTHEAST 3 TO 5 MPH SHIFTING TO THE EAST 6 TO  
10 MPH IN THE LATE MORNING AND AFTERNOON.  
DISPERSION INDEX....5 INCREASING TO 26.  
LVORI...............9 DECREASING TO 3.  
 
TIME (EDT) 6 AM 8 AM 10 AM NOON 2 PM 4 PM  
SKY (%).........73 70 70 70 74 74  
WEATHER COV..... S CHC S CHC CHANCE CHANCE CHANCE  
WEATHER TYPE....NONE RNSHWR RNSHWR RNSHWR RNSHWR RNSHWR  
TSTM COV........ S CHC S CHC CHANCE CHANCE CHANCE  
CHC OF PCPN (%).50 50 50 50 50 50  
LAL.............1 2 2 3 3 3  
TEMP............73 76 84 88 89 87  
RH..............99 94 72 63 59 65  
20 FT WIND......N 2 N 3 NE 5 NE 6 E 8 E 9  
20 FT WIND GUST. 5 10 10  
MIX HGT (FT)....400 300 1900 3100 4100 3400  
TRANSPORT WIND..N 3 N 3 E 6 E 7 E 8 E 10  
DISPERSION IDX..2 2 14 23 23 26  
LVORI...........9 7 3 2 2 3  
 

 
FORECASTER...JOHNSON  
REQUESTED BY...JOHN KERN  
TYPE OF REQUEST...WILDFIRE  
.TAG 1711714.0/MLB  
.EMAIL JOHN.KERN@FRESHFROMFLORIDA.COM  
 
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