455  
FNUS72 KMLB 210907  
FWSMLB  
 
SPOT FORECAST FOR JDSP G3...FLORIDA PARK SERVICE  
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MELBOURNE FL  
507 AM EDT THU JUN 21 2018  
 
FORECAST IS BASED ON IGNITION TIME OF 0800 EDT ON JUNE 21.  
IF CONDITIONS BECOME UNREPRESENTATIVE...CONTACT THE NATIONAL WEATHER  
SERVICE.  
   
DISCUSSION
 
MOISTURE WILL CONTINUE TO INCREASE ACROSS THE AREA IN  
DEVELOPING LOW LEVEL WESTERLY FLOW. THIS WILL INCREASE RAIN CHANCES  
TODAY, WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS DEVELOPING NEAR OR ACROSS  
THE BURN SITE DURING THE AFTERNOON TO EARLY EVENING HOURS AS THEY  
MOVE SLOWLY EASTWARD AND OFFSHORE.  
 
WINDS WILL GENERALLY REMAIN OUT OF THE WEST-SOUTHWEST AROUND 5 TO  
8 MPH THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON. HOWEVER THE EAST COAST SEA BREEZE  
MAY FORM AND PUSH FAR ENOUGH INLAND TO SWITCH WINDS BRIEFLY  
TO THE EAST-SOUTHEAST INTO LATE AFTERNOON AROUND 8 TO 10 MPH. ANY  
STORMS OR OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES THAT MOVE THROUGH THE SITE WILL HAVE  
THE POTENTIAL TO PRODUCE GUSTY AND ERRATIC WINDS.  
   
TODAY
 
 
SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY SUNNY (35-45 PERCENT) THEN BECOMING  
MOSTLY CLOUDY (70-80 PERCENT) LATE. SLIGHT  
CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS EARLY IN  
THE AFTERNOON, THEN CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND  
THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH LATE AFTERNOON.  
CHANCE OF PCPN......50 PERCENT.  
LAL.................NO TSTMS UNTIL 1300, THEN 1-8 STRIKES UNTIL  
1500, THEN 9-15 STRIKES.  
MAX TEMPERATURE.....AROUND 92.  
MIN HUMIDITY........54 PERCENT.  
WIND (20 FT)........WEST TO SOUTHWEST WINDS 5 TO 8 MPH, THEN  
BECOMING SOUTH TO SOUTHEAST AROUND 8 TO 10  
MPH IN THE LATE AFTERNOON. GUSTY AND ERRATIC  
WINDS EXPECTED NEAR THUNDERSTORMS IN THE  
AFTERNOON.  
MIXING HEIGHT.......300-1400 FT AGL INCREASING TO 3900-4700 FT AGL.  
TRANSPORT WINDS.....SOUTHWEST 5 TO 7 MPH.  
DISPERSION INDEX....6 INCREASING TO 32 LATE IN THE AFTERNOON.  
LVORI...............6 DECREASING TO 2.  
 
TIME (EDT) 8AM 9AM 10A 11A 12P 1PM 2PM 3PM 4PM 5PM  
SKY (%).........21 21 21 37 37 37 57 57 57 76  
WEATHER COV..... SCH SCH CHC CHC CHC  
WEATHER TYPE.... RW RW RW RW RW  
TSTM COV........ SCH SCH CHC CHC CHC  
CHC OF PCPN (%).10 10 10 10 10 20 20 30 40 50  
LAL.............1 1 1 1 1 2 2 3 3 3  
TEMP............78 81 85 88 89 90 91 92 90 89  
RH..............91 79 67 59 57 58 56 54 58 59  
20 FT WIND DIR..W W W W SW SW S S SE SE  
20 FT WIND SPD..5 6 7 8 7 7 6 8 9 9  
20 FT WIND GUST.  
MIX HGT (KFT)...0.3 1.4 2.5 3.6 4.0 4.3 4.7 4.4 4.2 3.9  
TRANSP WIND DIR.W W W W W W W W SW SW  
TRANSP WIND SPD.5 6 7 7 7 7 7 7 7 7  
DISPERSION IDX..2 10 22 30 31 30 29 31 32 19  
LVORI...........6 4 3 1 1 1 1 1 1 2  
   
TONIGHT
 
 
SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY CLOUDY (60-70 PERCENT) THEN BECOMING  
PARTLY CLOUDY (35-45 PERCENT). CHANCE OF  
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IN THE EVENING.  
CHANCE OF PCPN......50 PERCENT.  
LAL.................9-15 STRIKES UNTIL 2300, THEN NO TSTMS.  
MIN TEMPERATURE.....AROUND 75.  
MAX HUMIDITY........94 PERCENT.  
WIND (20 FT)........WEST WINDS 5 TO 7 MPH EARLY IN THE EVENING  
BECOMING LIGHT, THEN BECOMING WEST AROUND 5 MPH  
EARLY IN THE MORNING. GUSTY AND ERRATIC WINDS  
EXPECTED NEAR THUNDERSTORMS IN THE EVENING.  
MIXING HEIGHT.......1500-2700 FT AGL DECREASING TO 300 FT AGL EARLY  
IN THE EVENING.  
TRANSPORT WINDS.....WEST 3 TO 7 MPH.  
DISPERSION INDEX....14 DECREASING TO 3 EARLY IN THE EVENING.  
LVORI...............3 INCREASING TO 6.  
 
TIME (EDT) 6 PM 8 PM 10 PM MIDNGT 2 AM 4 AM  
SKY (%).........76 68 68 56 43 43  
WEATHER COV.....CHANCE CHANCE CHANCE  
WEATHER TYPE....RNSHWR RNSHWR RNSHWR NONE NONE NONE  
TSTM COV........CHANCE CHANCE CHANCE  
CHC OF PCPN (%).50 40 30 10 10 10  
LAL.............3 3 3 1 1 1  
TEMP............87 81 79 78 77 77  
RH..............63 77 82 82 87 87  
20 FT WIND......S 8 W 6 W 3 W 3 W 3 W 5  
20 FT WIND GUST.  
MIX HGT (FT)....2700 300 300 300 300 300  
TRANSPORT WIND..SW 7 W 6 W 5 W 3 W 5 W 5  
DISPERSION IDX..16 4 2 2 2 3  
LVORI...........2 4 5 5 6 6  
   
FRIDAY
 
 
SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY SUNNY (40-50 PERCENT). SLIGHT CHANCE OF  
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS LATE IN THE MORNING.  
CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS EARLY IN  
THE AFTERNOON.  
CHANCE OF PCPN......40 PERCENT.  
LAL.................NO TSTMS UNTIL 1100, THEN 1-8 STRIKES UNTIL  
1400, THEN 9-15 STRIKES.  
MAX TEMPERATURE.....AROUND 91.  
MIN HUMIDITY........62 PERCENT.  
WIND (20 FT)........SOUTHWEST WINDS 5 TO 7 MPH. GUSTY AND ERRATIC  
WINDS EXPECTED NEAR THUNDERSTORMS LATE IN THE  
MORNING.  
MIXING HEIGHT.......300-2200 FT AGL INCREASING TO 3100-3900 FT AGL  
LATE IN THE MORNING.  
TRANSPORT WINDS.....WEST 5 TO 10 MPH.  
DISPERSION INDEX....3 INCREASING TO 39.  
LVORI...............7 DECREASING TO 2.  
 
TIME (EDT) 6 AM 9 AM NOON 3 PM  
SKY (%).........37 30 41 53  
WEATHER COV..... S CHC CHANCE  
WEATHER TYPE....NONE NONE RNSHWR RNSHWR  
TSTM COV........ S CHC CHANCE  
CHC OF PCPN (%).40 40 40 40  
LAL.............1 1 2 3  
TEMP............76 81 87 90  
RH..............90 79 68 62  
20 FT WIND......W 5 W 6 W 7 SW 7  
MIX HGT (FT)....300 1200 3400 3900  
TRANSPORT WIND..W 5 W 8 W 10 W 9  
DISPERSION IDX..2 13 39 42  
LVORI...........6 4 2 2  
 

 
FORECASTER...WEITLICH  
REQUESTED BY...ROB ROSSMANITH  
TYPE OF REQUEST...PRESCRIBED  
.TAG 1811737.0/MLB  
.DELDT 06/21/18  
.EMAIL ROBIN.ROSSMANITH@DEP.STATE.FL.US  
 
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