641  
FNUS72 KMLB 200851  
FWSMLB  
 
SPOT FORECAST FOR JDSP F5 F7 E5...FLORIDA PARK SERVICE  
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MELBOURNE FL  
451 AM EDT MON AUG 20 2018  
 
FORECAST IS BASED ON IGNITION TIME OF 0700 EDT ON AUGUST 20.  
IF CONDITIONS BECOME UNREPRESENTATIVE...CONTACT THE NATIONAL WEATHER  
SERVICE.  
   
DISCUSSION
 
GOOD MORNING. LIGHT SOUTHERLY SURFACE AND  
TRANSPORT WINDS WILL TRANSPORT DEEP MOISTURE ACROSS THE AREA  
TODAY. AS A RESULT, SCATTERED LIGHTNING STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO  
DEVELOP NEAR OR JUST TO THE WEST OF THE BURN SITE AS THE SEA  
BREEZE DEVELOPS AND PUSHES INLAND BEGINNING LATE THIS MORNING.  
STORM OUTFLOWS COULD LEAD TO GUSTY AND ERRATIC WINDS BEFORE  
ACTIVITY SHIFTS TO THE WEST LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND A  
PREVAILING SOUTHEAST WIND DEVELOPS BEHIND THE SEA BREEZE.  
 
AMPLE MOISTURE AND LIGHT SOUTHEAST WINDS WILL LEAD TO ANOTHER  
ROUND OF SCATTERED STORMS ON TUESDAY, PARTICULARLY LATE IN THE  
MORNING AND EARLY IN THE AFTERNOON.  
   
TODAY
 
 
SKY/WEATHER.........INCREASING CLOUDS (40-55 PERCENT). SLIGHT CHANCE OF  
SHOWERS EARLY IN THE MORNING. CHANCE OF SHOWERS  
AND THUNDERSTORMS LATE IN THE MORNING AND EARLY  
THIS AFTERNOON.  
CHANCE OF PCPN......50 PERCENT.  
LAL.................NO TSTMS UNTIL 1100, THEN 9-15 STRIKES UNTIL  
1700, THEN NO TSTMS.  
MAX TEMPERATURE.....AROUND 88.  
MIN HUMIDITY........66 PERCENT.  
WIND (20 FT)........LIGHT WINDS BECOMING SOUTHEAST 5 TO 9 MPH IN  
THE LATE MORNING AND AFTERNOON. GUSTY AND  
ERRATIC WINDS EXPECTED NEAR THUNDERSTORMS LATE  
IN THE MORNING AND EARLY THIS AFTERNOON.  
MIXING HEIGHT.......INCREASING TO 3000 FT AGL.  
TRANSPORT WINDS.....SOUTHEAST 8 TO 13 MPH.  
DISPERSION INDEX....7 INCREASING TO 44.  
LVORI...............1.  
 
TIME (EDT) 7AM 8AM 9AM 10A 11A 12P 1PM 2PM 3PM 4PM 5PM  
SKY (%).........18 43 43 43 58 58 58 66 66 66 66  
WEATHER COV..... SCH SCH SCH CHC CHC CHC CHC CHC CHC CHC  
WEATHER TYPE.... RW RW RW RW RW RW RW RW RW RW  
TSTM COV........ CHC CHC CHC CHC CHC CHC CHC  
CHC OF PCPN (%).10 50 50 50 50 50 50 50 50 50 50  
LAL.............1 1 1 1 3 3 3 3 3 3 1  
TEMP............78 78 81 83 86 87 87 88 85 85 85  
RH..............92 90 84 78 73 70 68 66 72 73 74  
20 FT WIND DIR..SE SE SE SE SE SE SE SE SE SE SE  
20 FT WIND SPD..2 3 3 5 6 7 8 9 9 10 9  
20 FT WIND GUST. 14  
MIX HGT (KFT)...0.6 0.7 1.3 1.9 2.5 3.0 3.5 3.9 3.9 3.8 3.7  
TRANSP WIND DIR.SE SE SE SE SE SE SE SE SE SE SE  
TRANSP WIND SPD.8 8 9 9 9 9 8 8 9 12 13  
DISPERSION IDX..4 10 15 21 21 22 23 24 27 32 44  
LVORI...........6 5 4 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3  
   
TONIGHT
 
 
SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY CLOUDY (55-65 PERCENT) THEN BECOMING  
PARTLY CLOUDY (30-40 PERCENT).  
CHANCE OF PCPN......50 PERCENT.  
LAL.................NO TSTMS.  
MIN TEMPERATURE.....AROUND 76.  
MAX HUMIDITY........93 PERCENT.  
WIND (20 FT)........SOUTHEAST WINDS 5 TO 8 MPH BECOMING LIGHT  
AFTER MIDNIGHT.  
MIXING HEIGHT.......DECREASING TO 600 FT AGL.  
TRANSPORT WINDS.....SOUTHEAST 8 TO 13 MPH.  
DISPERSION INDEX....DECREASING TO 4 EARLY IN THE EVENING.  
LVORI...............6.  
 
TIME (EDT) 6 PM 8 PM 10 PM MIDNGT 2 AM 4 AM  
SKY (%).........66 53 53 41 29 29  
WEATHER COV.....  
WEATHER TYPE....NONE NONE NONE NONE NONE NONE  
TSTM COV........  
CHC OF PCPN (%).50 10 10 10 10 10  
LAL.............1 1 1 1 1 1  
TEMP............84 81 79 78 78 77  
RH..............76 80 85 86 88 91  
20 FT WIND......SE 9 SE 8 SE 7 SE 6 SE 5 SE 5  
20 FT WIND GUST.  
MIX HGT (FT)....2900 1100 1000 800 700 600  
TRANSPORT WIND..SE 13 SE 12 SE 12 SE 12 SE 12 SE 9  
DISPERSION IDX..39 9 9 6 5 4  
LVORI...........3 4 4 5 5 6  
   
TUESDAY
 
 
SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY SUNNY (35-45 PERCENT) THEN BECOMING  
MOSTLY CLOUDY (70-80 PERCENT). SLIGHT CHANCE OF  
SHOWERS EARLY IN THE MORNING. SHOWERS AND  
THUNDERSTORMS LIKELY IN THE AFTERNOON.  
CHANCE OF PCPN......60 PERCENT.  
LAL.................NO TSTMS UNTIL 1200, THEN 16-25 STRIKES.  
MAX TEMPERATURE.....AROUND 90.  
MIN HUMIDITY........64 PERCENT.  
WIND (20 FT)........LIGHT WINDS BECOMING SOUTHEAST 5 TO 10 MPH  
IN THE LATE MORNING AND AFTERNOON. GUSTY AND  
ERRATIC WINDS EXPECTED NEAR THUNDERSTORMS.  
MIXING HEIGHT.......INCREASING TO 2400-3600 FT AGL LATE IN THE MORNING.  
TRANSPORT WINDS.....SOUTHEAST 3 TO 12 MPH INCREASING TO AROUND 13  
MPH LATE IN THE AFTERNOON.  
DISPERSION INDEX....INCREASING TO 35.  
LVORI...............1.  
 
TIME (EDT) 6 AM 8 AM 10 AM NOON 2 PM 4 PM  
SKY (%).........29 43 43 54 75 75  
WEATHER COV..... S CHC S CHC LIKELY LIKELY LIKELY  
WEATHER TYPE....NONE RNSHWR RNSHWR RNSHWR RNSHWR RNSHWR  
TSTM COV........ LIKELY LIKELY LIKELY  
CHC OF PCPN (%).10 60 60 60 60 60  
LAL.............1 1 1 4 4 4  
TEMP............77 78 83 87 88 86  
RH..............93 88 73 66 64 67  
20 FT WIND......SE 5 E 3 SE 6 SE 9 SE 12 SE 12  
20 FT WIND GUST. 16 16  
MIX HGT (FT)....600 300 2200 3300 3600 2800  
TRANSPORT WIND..SE 8 E 3 SE 7 SE 9 SE 10 SE 12  
DISPERSION IDX..3 2 20 38 37 35  
LVORI...........6 6 3 3 1 3  
 

 
FORECASTER...ULRICH  
REQUESTED BY...ROB ROSSMANITH  
TYPE OF REQUEST...PRESCRIBED  
.TAG 1814745.0/MLB  
.DELDT 08/20/18  
.EMAIL ROBIN.ROSSMANITH@DEP.STATE.FL.US  
 
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.

The Nexlab FL Page Main Text Page