812  
FNUS72 KMLB 180918  
FWSMLB  
 
SPOT FORECAST FOR SP-29B...FLORIDA PARK SERVICE  
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MELBOURNE FL  
518 AM EDT FRI AUG 18 2017  
 
FORECAST IS BASED ON IGNITION TIME OF 0800 EDT ON AUGUST 18.  
IF CONDITIONS BECOME UNREPRESENTATIVE...CONTACT THE NATIONAL WEATHER  
SERVICE.  
   
DISCUSSION
 
THE ATLANTIC HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE SHIFTING NORTHWARD  
INTO CENTRAL FLORIDA WILL CAUSE A SLIGHTLY EARLIER ONSET OF THE EAST  
COAST SEA BREEZE. INITIATION OF THUNDERSTORMS ALONG THE INLAND MOVING  
BOUNDARY SHOULD HOLD OFF UNTIL WEST OF THE BURN SITE. INCREASING  
SURFACE AND TRANSPORT WINDS WILL OCCUR THIS AFTERNOON, WHICH WILL  
BOOST DISPERSION CLOSE TO THE GOOD RANGE.  
   
TODAY
 
 
SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY SUNNY (35-45 PERCENT). SLIGHT CHANCE OF  
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IN THE AFTERNOON.  
CHANCE OF PCPN......20 PERCENT.  
LAL.................NO TSTMS UNTIL 1400, THEN 1-8 STRIKES.  
MAX TEMPERATURE.....AROUND 92.  
MIN HUMIDITY........62 PERCENT.  
WIND (20 FT)........LIGHT WINDS BECOMING SOUTHEAST 6 TO 10 MPH IN  
THE LATE MORNING AND AFTERNOON. GUSTY AND  
ERRATIC WINDS EXPECTED NEAR THUNDERSTORMS IN  
THE AFTERNOON.  
MIXING HEIGHT.......300-2200 FT AGL INCREASING TO 2800-3800 FT AGL  
LATE IN THE MORNING.  
TRANSPORT WINDS.....SOUTHEAST 3 TO 12 MPH.  
DISPERSION INDEX....5 INCREASING TO 35.  
LVORI...............6 DECREASING TO 1.  
 
TIME (EDT) 8AM 9AM 10A 11A 12P 1PM 2PM 3PM 4PM 5PM  
SKY (%).........40 40 40 45 45 45 42 42 42 29  
WEATHER COV..... SCH SCH SCH SCH SCH  
WEATHER TYPE.... RW RW RW RW RW  
TSTM COV........ SCH SCH SCH SCH SCH  
CHC OF PCPN (%).20 20 20 20 20 20 20 20 20 20  
LAL.............1 1 1 1 1 1 2 2 2 2  
TEMP............79 82 85 88 89 89 90 89 88 88  
RH..............88 79 72 66 64 64 62 64 66 66  
20 FT WIND DIR..S S SE SE SE SE E SE SE SE  
20 FT WIND SPD..2 3 5 6 7 7 8 9 10 10  
20 FT WIND GUST. 5 10 10  
MIX HGT (KFT)...0.3 1.2 2.2 3.1 3.3 3.6 3.8 3.5 3.1 2.8  
TRANSP WIND DIR.S S S S S SE SE SE SE SE  
TRANSP WIND SPD.5 5 6 7 7 7 7 8 10 12  
DISPERSION IDX..2 8 17 28 29 30 32 35 35 35  
LVORI...........6 4 3 3 1 1 1 1 1 1  
   
TONIGHT
 
 
SKY/WEATHER.........PARTLY CLOUDY (25-35 PERCENT). SLIGHT CHANCE OF  
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IN THE EVENING.  
CHANCE OF PCPN......20 PERCENT.  
LAL.................1-8 STRIKES UNTIL 2300, THEN NO TSTMS.  
MIN TEMPERATURE.....AROUND 77.  
MAX HUMIDITY........88 PERCENT.  
WIND (20 FT)........SOUTHEAST WINDS 5 TO 9 MPH. GUSTY AND ERRATIC  
WINDS EXPECTED NEAR THUNDERSTORMS IN THE  
EVENING.  
MIXING HEIGHT.......800-2400 FT AGL DECREASING TO 300 FT AGL LATE  
IN THE EVENING.  
TRANSPORT WINDS.....SOUTHEAST 6 TO 14 MPH.  
DISPERSION INDEX....36 DECREASING TO 6 EARLY IN THE EVENING.  
LVORI...............3 INCREASING TO 6 AFTER MIDNIGHT.  
 
TIME (EDT) 6 PM 8 PM 10 PM MIDNGT 2 AM 4 AM  
SKY (%).........29 30 30 33 31 31  
WEATHER COV.....S CHC S CHC S CHC  
WEATHER TYPE....RNSHWR RNSHWR RNSHWR NONE NONE NONE  
TSTM COV........S CHC S CHC S CHC  
CHC OF PCPN (%).20 20 20 20 20 20  
LAL.............2 2 2 1 1 1  
TEMP............87 85 83 81 79 78  
RH..............68 72 77 82 85 88  
20 FT WIND......SE 10 SE 9 SE 8 SE 8 SE 7 SE 6  
20 FT WIND GUST. 10 10 10  
MIX HGT (FT)....2400 1700 800 300 300 300  
TRANSPORT WIND..SE 13 SE 14 SE 12 SE 9 SE 8 SE 7  
DISPERSION IDX..36 9 5 4 4 3  
LVORI...........3 3 4 5 5 6  
   
SATURDAY
 
 
SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY SUNNY (40-50 PERCENT) THEN BECOMING  
MOSTLY CLOUDY (70-80 PERCENT). SLIGHT CHANCE OF  
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS EARLY IN THE MORNING.  
CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IN THE  
AFTERNOON.  
CHANCE OF PCPN......40 PERCENT.  
LAL.................NO TSTMS UNTIL 0800, THEN 1-8 STRIKES UNTIL  
1100, THEN 9-15 STRIKES.  
MAX TEMPERATURE.....AROUND 88.  
MIN HUMIDITY........66 PERCENT.  
WIND (20 FT)........SOUTHEAST WINDS AROUND 5 MPH BECOMING EAST 5 TO  
9 MPH IN THE LATE MORNING AND AFTERNOON. GUSTY  
AND ERRATIC WINDS EXPECTED NEAR THUNDERSTORMS  
EARLY IN THE MORNING.  
MIXING HEIGHT.......300-1400 FT AGL INCREASING TO 2200-3600 FT AGL  
IN THE LATE MORNING AND AFTERNOON.  
TRANSPORT WINDS.....EAST 5 TO 10 MPH INCREASING TO 12 TO 15 MPH  
EARLY IN THE AFTERNOON.  
DISPERSION INDEX....3 INCREASING TO AROUND 40 IN THE AFTERNOON.  
LVORI...............6 DECREASING TO 1.  
 
TIME (EDT) 6 AM 9 AM NOON 3 PM  
SKY (%).........31 59 59 74  
WEATHER COV..... S CHC CHANCE CHANCE  
WEATHER TYPE....NONE RNSHWR RNSHWR RNSHWR  
TSTM COV........ S CHC CHANCE CHANCE  
CHC OF PCPN (%).20 40 40 40  
LAL.............1 2 3 3  
TEMP............78 83 88 88  
RH..............88 77 66 68  
20 FT WIND......SE 5 SE 5 E 8G10 E 10  
MIX HGT (FT)....300 1400 3500 3000  
TRANSPORT WIND..SE 5 SE 5 E 9 E 14  
DISPERSION IDX..3 5 39 42  
LVORI...........6 4 1 1  
 

 
FORECASTER...LASCODY  
REQUESTED BY...CHRISTOPHER VANDELLO  
TYPE OF REQUEST...PRESCRIBED  
.TAG 1714537.0/MLB  
.EMAIL CHRISTOPHER.VANDELLO@DEP.STATE.FL.US  
 
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