129
FXUS62 KMFL 031652
AFDMFL
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
1152 AM EST MON NOV 3 2025
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 1150 AM EST MON NOV 3 2025
- SLIGHT CHANCES FOR A FEW RAIN SHOWERS TODAY EARLY MONDAY.
- HAZARDOUS MARINE AND BEACH CONDITIONS DURING THE EARLY TO MID
PORTION OF THIS WEEK, BEGINNING TONIGHT.
- THE COMBINATION OF THE NEXT KING TIDE CYCLE AND BREEZY ONSHORE
WINDS MAY RESULT IN PERIODS OF MINOR COASTAL FLOODING ALONG THE
EAST COAST OF SOUTH FLORIDA THIS WEEK.
UPDATE
ISSUED AT 833 AM EST MON NOV 3 2025
GUIDANCE SUGGESTS MINOR COASTAL FLOODING WILL START WITH TUESDAY
MORNINGS HIGH TIDE CYCLE ALONG THE EAST COAST WITH THE UPCOMING
KING TIDE CYCLE. COASTAL FLOOD STATEMENT WAS ISSUED FROM 10Z TO
14Z TUESDAY. ADDITIONAL FLOODING IS EXPECTED WEDNESDAY THROUGH AT
LEAST THE BEGINNING OF THE WEEKEND DURING HIGH TIDE, WITH
ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE SUGGESTING MODERATE FLOODING MAY BE POSSIBLE
WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY, ESPECIALLY IN PALM BEACH.
SHORT TERM
(TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 208 AM EST MON NOV 3 2025
THE LATEST SURFACE ANALYSIS HIGHLIGHTS STRENGTHENING SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE OVER THE DEEP SOUTH STATES WITH A COLD FRONT CURRENTLY
ADVECTING SOUTHWARDS THROUGH THE FLORIDA PENINSULA. THE MID-LEVEL
TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED SURFACE LOW PRESSURE THAT HAD BEEN
REFERENCED THE LAST COUPLE DAYS HAS PUSHED OFF INTO THE WESTERN
ATLANTIC WITH BROAD RIDGING (AND THE SURFACE HIGH) DEVELOPING IN
THE WAKE OF ITS DEPARTURE. AS THE FRONT PUSHES THROUGH BY THIS
AFTERNOON, OVERALL DRY WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO RETURN
THROUGH THE SHORT TERM PERIOD COVERING TODAY AND TUESDAY MINUS
SLIGHT CHANCES FOR A FEW ISOLATED SHOWERS IN THE MORNING HOURS
TODAY MAINLY ALONG THE EAST COAST METRO. LATEST GUIDANCE DOES SHOW
ANOTHER STRONG AREA OF LOW PRESSURE ENHANCING IN THE SOUTHERN
GULF THAT SHOULD REMAIN IN THAT AREA AND EVEN RETROGRADE WESTWARDS
AS THE EXPANSIVE SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE AND RIDGING ALOFT KEEP IT
BLOCKED FROM ADVECTING NORTHWARDS. THE ONLY OTHER ITEM OF NOTE FOR
TODAY AND TOMORROW IS GOING TO BE BREEZIER WINDS DEVELOPING AS A
RESULT OF A STRENGTHENING PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN THE SURFACE
HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE SOUTHEAST U.S. AND LOW PRESSURE BOTH OVER
THE WESTERN ATLANTIC AND SOUTHERN GULF. BREEZIER CONDITIONS OUT OF
AN EASTERLY/NORTHEASTERLY DIRECTION COULD LAST SEVERAL DAYS.
HIGH TEMPERATURES FOR TODAY ARE EXPECTED MOSTLY IN THE MID 80S
ACROSS SOUTH FLORIDA, THOUGH PORTIONS OF SW FLORIDA MAY REACH THE
UPPER 80S. THESE HIGH TEMPS WILL FALL TO THE LOW 80S ON TUESDAY IN
THE WAKE OF THE COLD FRONT. OVERNIGHT LOWS MONDAY NIGHT WILL RANGE
FROM THE UPPER 50S TO LOW 60S WEST OF LAKE O AND TOWARDS THE GULF
COAST, TO THE MID AND UPPER 60S FOR THE INTERIOR AND LOW 70S FOR THE
ATLANTIC COAST.
LONG TERM
(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 208 AM EST MON NOV 3 2025
WINDS WILL REMAIN NORTHEASTERLY ON WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY AS THE
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE ELONGATES BUT REMAINS SITUATED OVER THE
SOUTHEASTERN UNITED STATES. CONTINUED CLOUD COVER AND THE BREEZE
WILL RESULT IN HIGH TEMPERATURES EACH AFTERNOON REMAINING IN THE LOW
TO MID 80S AREA-WIDE. IT IS ALSO DURING THIS TIME FRAME, THAT
DETERMINISTIC AND ENSEMBLE MODELS SHOW THE AREA OF MID-LEVEL
VORTICITY IN THE SOUTHERN GULF PUSHING BACK EASTWARD ACROSS THE GULF
WATERS. THIS COULD RESULT IN A SLIGHT MOISTURE RESURGENCE ACROSS THE
REGION ON THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY AND EVEN THE WEEKEND AS A MID-LEVEL
JET STREAK DEVELOPS OVER SOUTH FLORIDA. WHILE THIS IS TOWARDS THE
END OF THE EXTENDED PERIOD, CURRENT MODELS DEPICT PRECIPITABLE WATER
VALUES INCREASING BACK INTO THE 1.6 TO 1.9 INCH RANGE. THE
COMBINATION OF THE UPPER LEVEL SYNOPTIC SUPPORT PROPAGATING ACROSS
THE REGION AND THE MOISTURE RESURGENCE MAY RESULT IN A HIGHER CHANCE
OF RAIN RETURNING TO THE FORECAST ON THURSDAY AND FRIDAY OF THIS
WEEK. THIS WILL CONTINUE TO BE MONITORED AS THE WEEK PROGRESSES.
AVIATION
(18Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1150 AM EST MON NOV 3 2025
DRY CONDITIONS PREVAIL THROUGH THE PERIOD. LIGHT NW WINDS
BECOMING N/NE 10-15 KTS LATER THIS AFTERNOON, EXCEPT FOR APF WHICH
WILL HAVE NW WINDS THIS AFTERNOON.
MARINE
ISSUED AT 208 AM EST MON NOV 3 2025
CONDITIONS WILL BE MOSTLY BENIGN TO BEGIN TODAY, BUT THEN WILL
BECOME INCREASINGLY HAZARDOUS AS WINDS AND SEAS INCREASE WITH A
FRONTAL BOUNDARY PUSHING THROUGH THE AREA. A GENTLE BREEZE THIS
MORNING WILL INCREASE TO A FRESH TO STRONG BREEZE ACROSS THE LOCAL
WATERS LATE TODAY AND INTO TONIGHT, WHICH IS EXPECTED TO LAST INTO
THE MID-WEEK PERIOD. ADDITIONALLY, SEAS IN THE ATLANTIC WILL RISE TO
5-8 FEET DURING THIS SAME TIME FRAME.
A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR THE ATLANTIC BEGINNING
THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH TUESDAY EVENING DUE TO THE UPCOMING ELEVATED
WINDS AND SEAS. CONDITIONS IN THE GULF WILL BE A LITTLE LESS
HAZARDOUS WITH SEAS OF 3-5 FEET AND A MODERATE TO FRESH BREEZE, BUT
SCEC CRITERIA WILL BE MET.
BEACHES
ISSUED AT 208 AM EST MON NOV 3 2025
AN ELEVATED RISK OF RIP CURRENTS IS EXPECTED TO RETURN ALONG THE
EAST COAST THIS UPCOMING WEEK AS WINDS VEER TO A EASTERLY TO
NORTHEASTERLY DIRECTION AND WILL BE ON THE BREEZIER SIDE. THIS WILL
OCCUR IN TANDEM WITH THE NEXT KING TIDE CYCLE WHICH MAY RESULT IN
MINOR COASTAL FLOODING ALONG THE EAST COAST OF SOUTH FLORIDA DURING
AND AROUND HIGH TIDE BEGINNING MID-WEEK.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
MIAMI 72 81 73 83 / 10 0 0 10
WEST KENDALL 69 82 70 83 / 0 0 0 10
OPA-LOCKA 71 82 72 84 / 10 0 0 10
HOMESTEAD 72 81 72 82 / 10 0 0 10
FORT LAUDERDALE 72 80 73 81 / 10 0 0 0
N FT LAUDERDALE 72 80 73 82 / 0 0 0 0
PEMBROKE PINES 72 84 73 85 / 10 0 0 10
WEST PALM BEACH 70 81 72 82 / 0 0 0 0
BOCA RATON 71 82 73 84 / 0 0 0 0
NAPLES 64 84 67 85 / 0 0 0 0
MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
FL...HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK FROM 11 PM EST THIS EVENING THROUGH
WEDNESDAY EVENING FOR FLZ168-172-173.
AM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EST TUESDAY FOR AMZ650-651-670-
671.
GM...NONE.
SHORT TERM...REDMAN
LONG TERM....HADI
AVIATION...99
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