351
FXUS62 KMFL 091123
AFDMFL
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
623 AM EST TUE FEB 9 2010
AVIATION
WINDS WILL GRADUALLY BECOME SW BY AFTERNOON AND GUSTY
AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES. RAIN CHANCES WILL ALSO INCREASE THIS
AFTERNOON AND REMAIN ELEVATED INTO THE EVENING AHEAD OF THE
BOUNDARY. MOSTLY VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED INTO THE AFTERNOON,
HOWEVER DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING LOWER CEILINGS AND VIS
MAY OCCUR... ESPECIALLY AS THE BOUNDARY MOVES THROUGH AS SOME
STRATUS MAY OCCUR. CONDITIONS ARE THEN EXPECTED TO IMPROVE
WEDNESDAY MORNING. /TINGLER
PREV DISCUSSION
/ISSUED 407 AM EST TUE FEB 9 2010/
..SIGNIFICANT COLD BLAST EXPECTED WEDNESDAY NIGHT WITH FREEZING
TEMPERATURES POSSIBLE ACROSS NORTHWEST INTERIOR...
SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...SFC LOW OVER N-CENTRAL
GULF OF MEX WITH COLD FRONT EXTENDING SWD TO SW GULF WILL MOVE
RAPIDLY EAST THIS MORNING DRIVEN BY A PERTURBATION IN THE SOUTHERN
BRANCH OF THE UPPER LVL JET. WIND FLOW OVER THE LOCAL AREA WILL
SHIFT TO SE/S IN RESPONSE TO THE APPROACHING LOW/FRNT AND THIS
WILL RESULT IN AN INCREASE IN MOISTURE AND WARMER CONDITIONS THIS
AFTERNOON. THIS MAY ALSO RESULT IN CONVECTION DEVELOPING WELL
AHEAD OF THE FRONT...ESPECIALLY OVER NW INTERIOR PORTIONS OF SOUTH
FLORIDA THIS AFTERNOON. FOR THIS REASON HAVE INCREASED THE POPS
FOR THIS AFTERNOON. THE FRONT ITSELF SHOULD NOT REACH S. FLORIDA
UNTIL LATER THIS EVENING. THIS SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO MOVE FAST
ACROSS THE AREA AND SHOULD EXIT S. FLORIDA BEFORE SUNRISE
WEDNESDAY. THERE IS A THREAT OF LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN WITH
THIS SYSTEM...HOWEVER THE EXPECTED FAST MOVEMENT OF SHWRS (OR
STORMS) WL LIKELY PRECLUDE SIGNIFICANT ACCUMULATIONS. A
SIGNIFICANT DRYING AND COOLING TREND WILL THEN TAKE PLACE
WEDNESDAY AS THE FRONT MOVES WELL SOUTH OF THE AREA. MAX AFTERNOON
TEMPS ON WEDNESDAY COULD BE A GOOD 8 TO 15 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL.
WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY...A SIGNIFICANT COLD BLAST IS
EXPECTED TO AFFECT S. FLORIDA AS A STRONG SFC HIGH MOVES SOUTH
FROM CANADA AND ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS RESULTING IN A RATHER
STRONG COLD AIR ADVECTION WITH TEMPS PLUNGING POSSIBLY TO FREEZING ACROSS
GLADES...HENDRY AND POSSIBLY INLAND COLLIER AND NORTHERN PORTIONS
OF INLAND PALM BEACH COUNTY JUST EAST OF THE LAKE. TEMPS COULD
ALSO DROP TO THE MID 30S ACROSS COASTAL PALM BEACH AND L 40S OVER
BOTH, SOUTHEAST AND WEST METRO AREAS. ON TOP OF THIS...SFC WINDS
ARE ALSO EXPECTED TO PLACE A BIG ROLE IN THIS COLD EPISODE AS WIND
SPEED ARE EXPECTED TO BE AT LEAST 5 TO 10 MPH OVER MOST AREAS WITH
EVEN HIGHER SPEEDS ALONG THE EAST COAST. THIS WILL LIKELY RESULT
IN WIND CHILL VALUES AT LEAST 5-8 DEGREES COOLER OVER MOST AREAS.
ALTHOUGH IS TOO EARLY TO ISSUE ANY ADVISORY TO THAT RESPECT, IF
MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW THIS TREND, AN ADVISORY MAY BE ISSUED
SOMETIME WEDNESDAY.
LONG TERM...FRIDAY THROUGH THE PRESIDENTS DAY...SLIGHTLY WARMER TEMPS
SHOULD BE EXPECTED THU NIGHT AS THE HIGH MOVES EAST AND ANOTHER
SFC LOWS DEVELOPS OVER THE WRN/CENTRAL GULF OF MEX. THIS LOW AND
ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT WILL REACH SOUTH FLORIDA FRI NIGHT/SAT
MORNING. NOW THE LATEST MODEL RUN NOT ONLY HAVE A MUCH STRONGER
PUSH WITH THE FRONT, BUT ACTUALLY MOVE THE SFC LOW JUST SOUTH OF
THE LOCAL AREA...CLEARING S. FLORIDA SOMETIME SATURDAY AFTERNOON. MDLS
ALSO CONTINUE TO SHOW GOOD UPPER DYNAMICS WITH STRONG OMEGA VALUES
OVER THE LOCAL AREA...SO WL KEEP AT LEAST A SLIGHT CHANCE OF TSTMS
FRIDAY NIGHT. COOLER (NOT AS COLD AS WED NIGHT) AND MOSTLY DRY CONDITIONS
SHOULD THEN BE EXPECTED FOR THE REST OF THE WEEKEND AND THE EARLY
PART OF THE ONCOMING WEEK.
MARINE...WIND SPEED WILL RAPIDLY INCREASE FROM THE
SOUTH/SOUTHWEST TODAY AS A FRONT APPROACHES THE LOCAL WATERS. A
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY HAS BEEN ISSUED TO THAT EFFECT FOR THE GULF
AND ATLANTIC WATERS. STRONG WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO AFFECT LAKE
OKEECHOBEE WATERS STARTING THIS EVENING, BUT CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED TO IMPROVE BY WEDNESDAY MORNING. A MODERATE N/NE SWELL
WILL CONTINUE TO AFFECT THE ATLANTIC WATERS...MAINLY OFF PALM
BEACH COUNTY...TODAY THROUGH WED. THIS SWELL COULD RESULT IN
HAZARDOUS CONDITIONS AROUND INLETS...AS WELL AS INCREASE THE RISK OF
RIP CURRENTS.
FIRE WEATHER...AS INDICATED ABOVE...SIGNIFICANTLY DRYER
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED BOTH WED AFTERNOON AND THURSDAY AS A DRY
AIR MASS CONTINUES TO SPREAD SOUTH BEHIND THE FRONT. RH VALUES
COULD HOVER AROUND 35% ACROSS MOST OF THE AREA WED AND EVEN BELOW
35% ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE NW INTERIOR. EVEN DRIER CONDITIONS
COULD BE EXPECTED THURSDAY.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
WEST PALM BEACH 80 54 63 39 / 60 20 0 0
FORT LAUDERDALE 79 58 68 43 / 50 30 0 0
MIAMI 79 59 69 44 / 50 30 0 0
NAPLES 75 57 62 41 / 60 20 0 0
MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
FL...NONE.
AM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 10 AM THIS MORNING TO 7 PM EST
WEDNESDAY FOR COASTAL WATERS FROM DEERFIELD BEACH TO OCEAN
REEF, FL OUT 20 NM-COASTAL WATERS FROM JUPITER INLET TO
DEERFIELD BEACH, FL OUT 20 NM-WATERS FROM DEERFIELD BEACH
TO OCEAN REEF, FL EXTENDING FROM 20 NM TO THE TERRITORIAL
WATERS OF THE BAHAMAS-WATERS FROM JUPITER INLET TO
DEERFIELD BEACH, FL EXTENDING FROM 20 NM TO 60 NM.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 7 PM THIS EVENING TO 7 AM EST
WEDNESDAY FOR LAKE OKEECHOBEE.
GM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 10 AM THIS MORNING TO 7 PM EST
WEDNESDAY FOR GULF WATERS FROM CHOKOLOSKEE TO BONITA BEACH,
FL EXTENDING FROM 20 TO 60 NM.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 7 PM THIS EVENING TO 7 PM EST
WEDNESDAY FOR COASTAL WATERS FROM CHOKOLOSKEE TO BONITA
BEACH, FL OUT 20 NM-COASTAL WATERS FROM EAST CAPE SABLE TO
CHOKOLOSKEE, FL OUT 20 NM.
LONG TERM...47/RHG
SHORT TERM/AVIATION...04/AT
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