499  
FXUS62 KMFL 180815  
AFDMFL  
 
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION  
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL  
415 AM EDT WED JUL 18 2018  
   
DISCUSSION
 
 
SHORT TERM (TODAY-FRIDAY)...A MID LEVEL TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED SFC FRONTAL  
BOUNDARY IS SLIDING ACROSS THE SE STATES AND STALL OVER THE NORTHERN  
PORTIONS OF THE PENINSULA. MEANWHILE, DEEP RIDGING CONTINUES TO BUILD  
ACROSS THE WESTERN ATLANTIC WITH AN AXIS EXTENDING INTO THE AREA.  
 
THIS OVERALL SYNOPTIC SCENARIO WILL BRING VEERING WINDS TO A MORE SOUTHERLY  
FLOW TODAY, TURNING SSW THROUGH THE END OF THE WORK WEEK. IN ADDITION,  
LATEST SATELLITE LOOP IMAGERY DEPICT THE ARRIVAL OF A SAHARAN AIR LAYER  
(SAL) EVENT, GRADUALLY FILTERING INTO THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN AND SOUTH  
FLORIDA TODAY AND INTO THURSDAY. THE RESULTING WEATHER PATTERN WILL  
BE A BALANCE BETWEEN THE MUCH DRIER MID LEVEL AIR ACCOMPANYING THE  
SAL AND THE LINGERING MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH THE FRONT TO THE NORTH.  
THUS, DESPITE HAVING A DECREASE IN POPS DURING THE SHORT TERM, STILL  
CAN EXPECT SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS/STORMS THIS AFTERNOON WITH  
THE SOUTHERLY FLOW FAVORING CONVECTION OVER NORTHERN AND NORTHEASTERN  
AREAS. FOR THURSDAY, POPS/COVERAGE DECREASE SIGNIFICANTLY AS THE SAL  
INTRUSION SHOULD INTENSIFY AND HELP IN CAPPING VERTICAL DEVELOPMENT.  
 
A LITTLE MORE MOISTURE BEGINS FILTERING INTO SOUTH FLORIDA FROM THE  
NORTH ON FRIDAY, WHILE WINDS VEER TO THE S/SW. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR  
AN INCREASE IN POPS BUT WITH SHOWERS/STORMS STILL REMAINING MAINLY  
SCATTERED IN NATURE.  
 
EXPECT TEMPERATURES TO REMAIN IN THE LOW TO MID 90S EACH AFTERNOON,  
ALONG WITH HEAT INDEX VALUES IN THE 100-106 RANGE ACROSS MOST OF SOUTH  
FLORIDA.  
 
LONG TERM (FRIDAY NIGHT-TUESDAY)...LONG RANGE MODELS CONTINUE TO  
SHOW SIGNIFICANT DISCREPANCIES REGARDING THE SOLUTION FOR THE  
RIDGING ACROSS THE AREA, WHICH MAY OR MAY NOT BEGIN DISSIPATING  
SOMETIME DURING THE UPCOMING WEEKEND AND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.  
FOR NOW, THE CURRENT FORECAST ASSUMES THAT THE RIDGE WILL BEGIN  
WEAKENING AND ALLOW FOR A RETURN OF SSE FLOW, INCREASING MOISTURE,  
AND HIGHER POPS TO NEAR OR JUST ABOVE CLIMO.  
 

 
   
MARINE
 
 
BROAD HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO EXPAND ACROSS THE WESTERN ATLANTIC  
AND REMAIN IN PLACE THROUGH THE REST OF THE WORK WEEK, AND KEEPING  
GENERALLY SOUTH TO SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ACROSS THE MARINE ZONES. SHOWERS  
AND STORMS WILL BE A CONCERN FOR ALL THE WATERS THROUGH THE PERIOD,  
THOUGH COVERAGE WILL BE LESS THE NEXT FEW DAYS. LOCALLY HIGHER WINDS  
AND SEAS ARE POSSIBLE NEAR ANY THUNDERSTORMS THAT DO DEVELOP.  
 

 
   
AVIATION
 
 
VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD DOMINATE TODAY, WITH LESS COVERAGE OF CONVECTION.  
THERE IS STILL A CHANCE OF SOME THUNDERSTORMS DURING THE PM, THEREFORE,  
INCLUDED VCTS FOR MOST OF THE SITES AFTER 18Z. WINDS WILL BE LIGHT  
AND CALM THROUGH THE MORNING HRS BUT VEERING SOUTH TO NO MORE THAN  
10 KNOTS IN THE AFTERNOON. LIGHT CALM WINDS RETURN OVERNIGHT.  
 

 
   
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
 
 
WEST PALM BEACH 93 77 93 77 / 40 30 20 30  
FORT LAUDERDALE 92 79 92 79 / 30 10 20 20  
MIAMI 92 78 92 78 / 30 10 20 20  
NAPLES 92 77 92 77 / 30 10 10 0  
 

 
   
MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
 
 
FL...NONE.  
AM...NONE.  
GM...NONE.  
 

 
 
DISCUSSION/MARINE...17/AR  
AVIATION...MT  
 
 
 
 
 
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