709
FXUS62 KMFL 210146 AAA
AFDMFL
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
846 PM EST FRI NOV 20 2009
UPDATE
THE FRONT THAT WAS OVER THE NORTHERN PORTION OF THE CWA THIS
AFTERNOON HAS MOVED NORTH INTO SOUTH CENTRAL FLORIDA THIS EVENING.
THE FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE SLOWLY NORTH THROUGH CENTRAL
FLORIDA...AS LOW PRESSURE OVER NORTHWESTERN GULF OF MEXICO MOVES EAST
INTO THE NORTH CENTRAL GULF OF MEXICO. THIS WILL KEEP THE DEW
POINTS IN THE MID 60S TO AROUND 70 OVER THE CWA TONIGHT ALONG WITH
LIGHT WINDS AND MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES. SO FOG FORMATION SHOULD BE A
GOOD BET ACROSS MOST OF THE CWA LATE TONIGHT INTO EARLY SATURDAY
MORNING. SO HAVE UP THE FOG WORDING TO WIDESPREAD OVER THE
INTERIOR AREAS...WITH AREAS OF FOG FOR INLAND METRO AREAS OF THE
EAST COAST AND THE WEST COAST FOR LATE TONIGHT. THE VISIBILITIES
COULD GET CLOSE TO 1/4 OF MILE EARLY SATURDAY...BUT WILL CONTINUE
TO MONITOR THE VISIBILITIES THROUGH THE NIGHT AND LET THE MIDNIGHT
SHIFT DECIDE IF A DENSE FOG ADVISORY WILL BE NEEDED FOR THE
INTERIOR AREAS OR NOT.
THE ISOLATED SHOWERS THAT HAVE BEEN OCCURRING OVER THE NORTHEAST
AREAS OF THE CWA THIS AFTERNOON SHOULD ALSO DISSIPATE BY
MIDNIGHT...DUE TO THE LOST OF HEATING OF THE DAY. SO WILL KEEP A
SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS GOING FOR THE EAST COAST METRO AREAS
UNTIL MIDNIGHT THEN DRY CONDITIONS AFTER MIDNIGHT.
THE NORTHEAST SWELLS OF 2 TO 3 FEET ARE STILL OCCURRING OVER THE
PALM BEACH ATLANTIC WATERS THIS EVENING...AND SHOULD CONTINUE
THROUGH REST OF TONIGHT. SO WILL CONTINUE TO MENTION THIS IN THE
MARINE ZONES EVENING UPDATE FOR THE PALM BEACH WATERS ALONG WITH A
MODERATE RISK OF RIP CURRENTS ALONG THE BEACHES OF PALM BEACH
COUNTY IN THE EVENING HWO UPDATE.
UPDATE
54/BNB
PREV DISCUSSION
/ISSUED 647 PM EST FRI NOV 20 2009/
AVIATION...VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED OVERNIGHT AND SATURDAY. LOW
LEVEL BOUNDARY SITUATED FROM JUST SOUTH OF WEST PALM BEACH
SOUTHWEST TO THE LOXAHATCHEE SWAMP. LEFT OUT VCSH AT KPBI FOR NOW.
WINDS WILL GO LIGHT LATER THIS EVENING. WINDS WILL BECOME ESE AT
8-9 KTS EAST TERMINALS ARND 15Z AND FOR KAPF, SE AT 7 KTS ARND 15Z
WITH A SW SEABREEZE DVLPG AROUND 19Z.
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 224 PM EST FRI NOV 20 2009/
SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY...VERY DIFFUSE FRONTAL
BOUNDARY ACROSS SOUTH FLORIDA WILL MOVE NORTH (OR WHATEVER IS LEFT
OF IT) TONIGHT AS A NEW FRONTAL SYSTEM CONTINUES TO DEVELOP OVER
THE GULF OF MEX. SFC TO LOW LEVEL FLOW WILL TURN MORE E-SE OVER
THE LOCAL AREA AS THE DEVELOPING FRONTAL SYSTEM MOVES EAST ACROSS
NRN GULF/SE U.S. THIS COULD RESULT IN AN INCREASE IN MOISTURE AND
CHANCES OF RAIN ESPECIALLY SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY. THE SYSTEM WILL
DRAG A COLD FRONT ACROSS FLORIDA PANHANDLE THROUGH SUNDAY AND TO
CENTRAL FLORIDA BY MONDAY, HOWEVER MOST ENERGY WITH THIS SYSTEM
WILL BE TRANSFERRED NORTHEASTWARD RESULTING IN THE MID/UPPER LEVEL
FLOW BEING PARALLEL TO THE FRONT AND THE FRONT STALLING. SW FLOW
AHEAD OF THIS FRONT COULD RESULT IN RATHER WARM AFTERNOON
CONDITIONS ACROSS THE LOCAL AREA, HOWEVER, A SIGNIFICANT INCREASE
IN CLOUD COVER COULD ALSO BE EXPECTED AND THIS COULD WORK AGAINST
IT. WL NOT MENTION NEAR RECORD TEMPS AT THIS TIME AND WILL ONLY
FORECAST A FEW DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL.
LONG TERM...TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...LATEST SEVERAL RUNS OF GFS
INDICATE THAT THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY MAY REMAIN STATIONARY JUST
NORTH OF SOUTH FLORIDA THROUGH AT LEAST WEDNESDAY AS THE MID/UPPER
LEVEL FLOW WILL NOT SUPPORT ANY FURTHER SOUTHWARD MOVEMENT. THIS
WILL KEEP THE LOCAL AREA UNDER MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES AND AT LEAST A
CHANCE OF SHOWERS. BY WEDNESDAY NIGHT A RATHER VIGOROUS SHORT WAVE
WILL DIG SOUTH ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS AMPLIFYING A LONG WAVE
TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN HALF OF THE COUNTRY. THIS WILL GIVE A
STRONG ENOUGH PUSH TO THE COLD FRONT TO FINALLY PUSH IT SOUTH OF
MAINLAND SOUTH FLORIDA THURSDAY NIGHT/FRIDAY MORNING. MUCH DRIER
AND COOLER AIR IS EXPECTED TO SPREAD SOUTH TOWARD THE END OF THE
WEEK.
MARINE...SFC WINDS WILL SHIFT GRADUALLY FROM EAST TO SOUTHEAST
THROUGH SUNDAY AS THE FRONTAL SYSTEM MOVES EAST ACROSS THE
NORTHERN GULF. WIND SPEEDS HOWEVER WILL REMAIN AOB 15 KTS. WIND
DIRECTION WILL BECOME VARIABLE BY EARLY NEXT WEEK AS THE FRONTAL
BOUNDARY FLUCTUATE BACK AND FORTH ACROSS THE PENINSULA. SEAS WILL
REMAIN WELL BELOW 6 FEET.
FIRE WEATHER...NO PROBLEMS EXPECTED.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
WEST PALM BEACH 66 83 69 85 / 10 10 20 30
FORT LAUDERDALE 70 84 71 85 / 10 10 20 30
MIAMI 69 85 70 85 / 10 10 20 30
NAPLES 65 85 67 83 / - 10 20 30
MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
FL...NONE.
AM...NONE.
GM...NONE.
LONG TERM...47/RHG
SHORT TERM/AVIATION...57/DG
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