378  
FXUS62 KMFL 241145  
AFDMFL  
 
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION  
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL  
745 AM EDT THU MAY 24 2018  
   
AVIATION
 
 
GENERALLY VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD PREVAIL INTO FRIDAY, BUT BRIEF  
PERIODS OF RESTRICTIONS ARE EXPECTED WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS THAT  
WILL IMPACT THE REGION. TIMING FOR THE EAST COAST IS MID-MORNING  
THROUGH EARLY EVENING, THEN AGAIN LATE TONIGHT. FOR NAPLES,  
ACTIVITY SHOULD BE CONFINED TO THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.  
SOUTHEAST WIND SHOULD GENERALLY BE 10 KNOTS OR LESS, ALTHOUGH  
NAPLES SHOULD SEE MIDDAY THROUGH MID-EVENING SW GULF BREEZE.  
 

 
   
PREV DISCUSSION
 
/ISSUED 423 AM EDT THU MAY 24 2018/  
 
DISCUSSION...  
 
TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY: WEATHER THE NEXT TWO DAYS WILL CONTINUE TO BE  
DRIVEN BY OUR POSITION ON THE WESTERN SIDE OF THE ATLANTIC RIDGE AS  
WE WATCH THE POTENTIAL DEVELOPMENT OF THE TROPICAL DISTURBANCE IN  
THE NW CARIBBEAN. WHILE THE DISTURBANCE IS NOT EXPECTED TO BE A  
MAJOR PLAYER IN OUR WEATHER THROUGH FRIDAY, WE WILL SEE A GRADUAL  
INCREASE IN OUR PWATS AS WE BEGIN TO TAP INTO THE TROPICAL MOISTURE  
ASSOCIATED WITH IT.  
 
OVERALL WE LOOK TO REMAIN IN THE PATTERN OF MORNING SHOWERS AND A  
FEW STORMS ALONG THE EAST COAST, WITH BETTER RAIN/STORM CHANCES  
ACROSS THE INTERIOR AND GULF COAST DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING.  
COVERAGE ON FRIDAY SHOULD BE HIGHER THAN TODAY AS THE LEADING EDGE  
OF THE TROPICAL PLUME ADVECTS INTO THE AREA.  
 
FRIDAY NIGHT AND BEYOND: DETAILS OF THE EXTENDED FORECAST REMAIN  
HIGHLY DEPENDENT ON THE EXACT TRACK AND DEVELOPMENT OF THE TROPICAL  
DISTURBANCE AS IT IS FORECAST TO MOVE INTO THE EASTERN OR CENTRAL  
GULF OF MEXICO THIS WEEKEND. NHC CURRENTLY HAS A 70 PERCENT CHANCE  
OF DEVELOPMENT WITHIN 5 DAYS, WITH CONDITIONS BECOMING FAVORABLE FOR  
FURTHER TROPICAL OR SUBTROPICAL DEVELOPMENT AS IT MOVES THROUGH THE  
GULF. GIVEN THE CONTINUED FEEDBACK ISSUES WITH THE GFS, EXTENDED  
FORECAST CONTINUES TO LEAN HEAVILY ON THE ECMWF AND IT'S BLENDS.  
 
HERE ARE THE CONCERNS FOR THIS WEEKEND AS THEY STAND CURRENTLY:  
 
FLOODING: THE MAIN IMPACT OF THIS SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO BE HEAVY  
RAINFALL. MODELS ARE CONSISTENT IN BRINGING A ROBUST 2-2.5" PWAT  
PLUME ACROSS THE REGION FROM FRIDAY NIGHT ONWARDS, DRIVEN BY BREEZY  
SOUTH-SOUTHEAST WINDS. SIMILAR TO WHAT WE EXPERIENCED LAST WEEKEND,  
THIS TYPE OF SETUP IS FAVORABLE FOR TRAINING PRECIPITATION BANDS,  
WITH THE ATMOSPHERIC PROFILES SUGGESTING VERY EFFICIENT WARM RAIN  
PROCESSES. WHILE CURRENT MODEL GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THE HEAVIEST RAIN  
MAY REMAIN JUST OFFSHORE TO OUR WEST IN THE GULF, THE FORECAST STILL  
CALLS FOR POTENTIAL RAINFALL TOTALS OF 3-7 INCHES THROUGH EARLY NEXT  
WEEK. THIS DOES NOT INCLUDE ANY LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS THAT WILL BE  
POSSIBLE.  
 
GIVEN THE ALREADY SATURATED GROUND AND ELEVATED CANAL LEVELS ACROSS  
SOUTH FLORIDA, ANY HEAVY RAINFALL WILL LIKELY BRING ADDITIONAL  
FLOODING CONCERNS ACROSS THE REGION. AT THE MOMENT, WPC HAS  
OUTLOOKED THE REGION IN A MARGINAL RISK FOR EXCESSIVE RAINFALL ON  
SATURDAY.  
 
TORNADOES: A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVING THROUGH THE CENTRAL OR  
EASTERN GULF OF MEXICO IS A VERY FAVORABLE PATTERN FOR AT LEAST  
ISOLATED TORNADOES ACROSS THE FLORIDA PENINSULA. MODELS ARE  
PINPOINTING THE BEST 0-1KM HELICITIES FROM SATURDAY EVENING THROUGH  
MONDAY AS WE SEE A GRADUALLY INCREASING LOW LEVEL WIND FIELD.  
 
WIND: AT THE MOMENT, A WIDESPREAD STRONG WIND THREAT IS NOT  
EXPECTED. HOWEVER, DO EXPECT TO SEE BREEZY SOUTH-SOUTHEAST WINDS  
THROUGH THE WEEKEND. WHILE THUNDERSTORMS WILL LIKELY BE LIMITED IN  
THIS TYPE OF TROPICAL ENVIRONMENT, A FEW STRONGER SHOWERS AND STORMS  
CAN'T BE RULED OUT GIVEN THE POTENTIAL FOR A LOW LEVEL JET AROUND 25-  
35KTS.  
 
MARINE...POSITION OF THE WESTERN ATLANTIC RIDGE WILL KEEP THE  
WATERS UNDER EAST-SOUTHEAST FLOW OF 10-15KTS THROUGH FRIDAY. BEYOND  
FRIDAY, THE DETAILS OF THE FORECAST WILL BE DEPENDENT ON THE  
EVENTUAL TRACK AND EVOLUTION OF A TROPICAL DISTURBANCE AS IT IS  
FORECAST TO LIFT NORTH INTO THE CENTRAL OR EASTERN GULF OF MEXICO.  
OVERALL, EXPECT DETERIORATING CONDITIONS THROUGH THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND  
WITH INCREASING SOUTHERLY WINDS AND WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND STORMS.  
 

 
   
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
 
 
WEST PALM BEACH 85 74 82 74 / 40 40 50 50  
FORT LAUDERDALE 85 75 82 74 / 30 50 60 50  
MIAMI 86 74 82 74 / 40 50 50 60  
NAPLES 85 73 83 71 / 50 40 60 60  
 

 
   
MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
 
 
FL...NONE.  
AM...NONE.  
GM...NONE.  

 
 
 
DISCUSSION...88/ALM  
MARINE...88/ALM  
AVIATION...23/SK  
 
 
 
 
 
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.

The Nexlab FL Page Main Text Page