092
FXUS62 KMFL 011617
AFDMFL
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
ISSUED BY NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KEY WEST FL
1217 PM EDT THU MAY 1 2025
..NEW SHORT TERM, AVIATION, MARINE, BEACHES
SHORT TERM
(THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 1131 AM EDT THU MAY 1 2025
ANOTHER QUIET DAY IS ONGOING FOR SOUTH FLORIDA AS WE REMAIN
UNDERNEATH STOUT RIDGING (AND CONSEQUENT SUBSIDENCE) THROUGHOUT
THE ATMOSPHERIC VERTICAL COLUMN. A PATTERN CHANGE THIS WEEKEND IS
ON THE HORIZON BUT IT IS ANOTHER CARBON COPY DAY ACROSS THE
REGION WITH SCATTERED CUMULUS CLOUDS BUBBLING UP ACROSS OUR LAND
AREAS THIS AFTERNOON WITH PEAK DAYTIME HEATING. THE LATEST
MESOSCALE MODEL RUNS (HRRR, RAFS, RAP) HAVE ALSO HINTED AT THE
POTENTIAL OF A FEW WEAK SHOWERS ALONG THE GULF BREEZE LATE THIS
AFTERNOON INTO THE EARLY EVENING HOURS AS ASCENT IS MAXIMIZED
ALONG THE BOUNDARY. CONSIDERING THE STOUT MID-LEVEL SUBSIDENCE
INVERSION AND LACK OF INSTABILITY, THE CHANCES OF GETTING MUCH
VERTICAL EXTENT WITH CONVECTION WILL BE MINIMAL ONCE AGAIN. WINDS
WILL VEER ONSHORE ALONG THE GULF COAST EACH AFTERNOON AS EASTERLY
FLOW KEEPS THE GULF SEA-BREEZE BOUNDARY OVER INLAND SOUTHWESTERN
FLORIDA LATE IN THE DAY. A TEMPERATURE GRADIENT WILL REMAIN WITH
US THIS AFTERNOON AS BREEZY EASTERLY ONSHORE FLOW KEEPS
TEMPERATURES COOL ALONG THE EAST COAST (LOW TO MID 80S) WITH
WARMER TEMPERATURES (MID TO UPPER 80S) ACROSS THE WESTERN HALF OF
SOUTH FLORIDA.
A POCKET OF DEEPER ATMOSPHERIC MOISTURE ROTATES AROUND THE PERIPHERY
OF THE SURFACE RIDGE DURING THE DAY ON FRIDAY AS SURFACE WINDS BEGIN
TO VEER SOUTHEASTERLY. THIS SUBTLE INCREASE OF MOISTURE MAY SUPPORT
THE DEVELOPMENT OF A FEW QUICK MOVING SHOWERS MOVING INTO THE EAST
COAST METRO AREA DURING THE MORNING TO EARLY AFTERNOON HOURS BEFORE
DIURNAL MIXING ACTS TO BRING DRIER AIR DOWN TO THE SURFACE. HIGH
TEMPERATURES ON FRIDAY WILL BE SIMILAR TO TODAY WITH A GRADIENT FROM
EAST TO WEST, COOLER ON THE EAST COAST WITH HIGHS IN THE LOW TO MID
80S AND A BIT WARMER ACROSS SOUTHWESTERN FLORIDA WITH HIGHS IN THE
MID TO UPPER 80S.
LONG TERM
(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 115 AM EDT THU MAY 1 2025
A PATTERN CHANGE IS ON THE HORIZON FOR SOUTH FLORIDA THIS WEEKEND AS
A NEGATIVELY TILTED TROUGH AMPLIFIES AND DIGS ACROSS THE SOUTHEASTERN
UNITED STATES ON SATURDAY. IN RESPONSE TO THE APPROACH OF THIS FEATURE,
MID-LEVEL FLOW WILL BEGIN TO VEER TO A SOUTHWESTERLY COMPONENT AS
PREVIOUSLY STOUT ANTICYCLONIC FLOW WANES AND ABATES. AT THE SURFACE,
THE ARRIVAL OF A WEAK SURFACE FRONTAL BOUNDARY ACROSS THE NORTHEASTERN
GULF AND SOUTHEASTERN UNITED STATES ON SATURDAY WILL BRING A POOL OF
DEEPER ATMOSPHERIC MOISTURE ACROSS THE REGION. AS THE AFOREMENTIONED
BOUNDARY WASHES OUT ACROSS THE REGION OVER THE WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT
WEEK, MESOSCALE PROCESSES (SEA-BREEZES) WILL CONTINUE EACH AFTERNOON
WITH BACKGROUND MID-LEVEL FLOW INFLUENCING WHERE THESE BOUNDARY
INTERACTIONS OCCUR. DURING THE FIRST HALF OF THE WEEKEND, MID-LEVEL
FLOW ALOFT WILL STILL BE FAIRLY LIGHT, WHICH WILL ACT TO FOCUS THE
FOCI OF ANY CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY OVER THE CENTRAL PART OF THE PENINSULA.
HOWEVER BY SUNDAY, INCREASING MID-LEVEL FLOW AROUND THE BASE OF THE
MID-LEVEL TROUGH WILL FOCUS AFTERNOON SHOWERS (AND PERHAPS A FEW
THUNDERSTORMS) OVER THE EASTERN HALF OF THE REGION. THIS PATTERN WILL
CONTINUE EACH AFTERNOON AS RESIDUAL MOISTURE ALONG THE FRONTOLYTIC
BOUNDARY PROVIDES ENOUGH OF A SPARK WHEN COMBINED WITH PEAK DIURNAL
HEATING TO GET VARYING LEVELS OF AFTERNOON CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY.
INSTABILITY WILL GRADUALLY INCREASE DURING THIS TIME FRAME AND WITH
THE ARRIVAL OF A COLDER POCKET (-13C TO -14C AT 500MB) OF MID-LEVEL
AIR ON MONDAY, COULD SUPPORT THE POTENTIAL OF MORE ROBUST THUNDERSTORM
ACTIVITY DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS GIVEN STEEPER MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES.
THINGS CAN CERTAINLY CHANGE AS WE REMAIN A FEW DAYS OUT, BUT DEFINITELY
SOMETHING TO KEEP TABS ON OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. DRIER AIR ADVECTS
INTO THE REGION BEGINNING ON TUESDAY AS MID-LEVEL FLOW VEERS FULLY TO A
NORTHWESTERLY DIRECTION BRINGING A CONTINENTAL AIRMASS INTO THE REGION
WHICH MAY TAPER RAIN CHANCES BEYOND THAT POINT.
GIVEN THE RELAXING OF THE PRESSURE GRADIENT ACROSS THE REGION DURING
THE FIRST HALF OF THE WEEKEND, TEMPERATURES WILL TREND SLIGHTLY WARMER
WITH HIGHS IN THE MIDDLE TO UPPER 80S ALONG BOTH COASTS AND HIGHS IN
THE LOW 90S ACROSS INLAND SOUTHWEST FLORIDA. A SIMILAR REGIME WILL
PLAY OUT ON SUNDAY WITH THE CAVEAT THAT AN INCREASE IN CLOUD COVER AND
SHOWER ACTIVITY COULD KEEP AREAS A BIT COOLER THAN SATURDAY.
AVIATION
(18Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1131 AM EDT THU MAY 1 2025
VFR CONDITIONS PREVAIL THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH BREEZY EASTERLY
WINDS THIS AFTERNOON. A GULF BREEZE IS EXPECTED AT APF TODAY AND
FRIDAY AFTERNOON.
MARINE
ISSUED AT 1131 AM EDT THU MAY 1 2025
A PERIOD OF CAUTIONARY CONDITIONS FOR SMALL CRAFT WILL CONTINUE ACROSS
THE ATLANTIC WATERS TODAY. SEAS WILL REMAIN 3-4 FEET ACROSS THE GULF
STREAM WATERS BEFORE GRADUALLY DECREASING TO 1-2 FEET BY FRIDAY
AFTERNOON. WAVES WILL REMAIN IN THE 2-3 FEET RANGE ACROSS THE GULF
WATERS TODAY BEFORE DECREASING TO 1-2 FEET BY FRIDAY.
BEACHES
ISSUED AT 1131 AM EDT THU MAY 1 2025
A HIGH RISK OF RIP CURRENTS WILL PREVAIL AT ALL EAST COAST BEACHES
TODAY. AS BREEZY TO GUSTY EASTERLY FLOW CONTINUES, THE ELEVATED RISK
OF RIP CURRENTS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH FRIDAY EVENING. WHEN IN DOUBT,
DON'T GO OUT!
FIRE WEATHER
ISSUED AT 115 AM EDT THU MAY 1 2025
ALTHOUGH WINDS WILL REMAIN LIGHT ACROSS INLAND LOCALES THIS
AFTERNOON, RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES WILL DROP TO NEAR OR JUST ABOVE
CRITICAL LEVELS (MID TO UPPER 30S) ACROSS INLAND SOUTHWESTERN FLORIDA.
THIS MAY RESULT IN ENHANCED FIRE BEHAVIOR AS VEGETATION REMAINS
QUITE DRY ACROSS THESE AREAS. CLOSER TO BOTH COASTS, RELATIVE
HUMIDITY VALUES WILL REMAIN WELL ABOVE THRESHOLDS AS ONSHORE FLOW
MODERATES RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES AS SEA-BREEZES MOVE INLAND.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
MIAMI 82 72 83 73 / 10 10 20 10
WEST KENDALL 84 68 85 69 / 10 10 10 10
OPA-LOCKA 84 71 85 72 / 10 10 20 10
HOMESTEAD 82 71 84 72 / 10 10 10 10
FORT LAUDERDALE 81 72 81 73 / 10 10 20 10
N FT LAUDERDALE 81 71 82 72 / 10 10 20 10
PEMBROKE PINES 86 73 87 74 / 10 10 20 10
WEST PALM BEACH 82 70 83 70 / 10 10 20 10
BOCA RATON 84 71 83 72 / 10 10 20 10
NAPLES 87 66 86 68 / 10 10 10 20
MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
FL...HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK THROUGH FRIDAY EVENING FOR FLZ168-172-173.
AM...NONE.
GM...NONE.
SHORT TERM...HADI/RIZZUTO
LONG TERM....HADI
AVIATION...RIZZUTO
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