678  
FXUS62 KMFL 271730 AAC  
AFDMFL  
 
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED  
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL  
130 PM EDT THU APR 27 2017  
   
AVIATION
 
 
THE WINDS WILL REMAIN EASTERLY THIS AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT, AS  
WIND SPEEDS WILL BE BETWEEN 10 TO 15 KNOTS THIS AFTERNOON  
DECREASING TO 5 TO 10 KNOTS TONIGHT. THE ONLY EXCEPTION TO THIS IS  
AT KAPF WHERE THE WIND DIRECTION WILL BE WESTERLY THIS AFTERNOON  
BEFORE GOING LIGHT AND VARIABLE TONIGHT. THE CEILING AND VIS WILL  
ALSO REMAIN THE VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH TONIGHT. THERE COULD BE A  
SHOWER OR TWO OVER NORTHEASTERN AREAS OF SOUTH FLORIDA THIS  
AFTERNOON, BUT THE COVERAGE WILL BE FEW AND FAR BETWEEN TO MENTION  
IT IN THE TAF SITES. THEREFORE, THE TAF SITES WILL REMAIN DRY  
THROUGH TONIGHT.  
 

 
AVIATION...54/BNB  
 
   
PREV DISCUSSION
 
/ISSUED 914 AM EDT THU APR 27 2017/  
 
UPDATE...  
THE FOG THAT BEEN OCCURRING OVER THE INTERIOR AND WEST COAST METRO  
AREAS HAS BURNED OFF THIS MORNING LEAVING ONLY SOME LOW LEVEL  
CLOUDS. THESE LOW CLOUD SHOULD BURN OFF THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS.  
THEREFORE, THE FOG WORDING WILL BE REMOVE FROM THE ZONES IN THE  
MORNING UPDATE FOR THE INTERIOR AND WEST COAST METRO AREAS.  
 
HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC WATERS WILL BUILD INTO THE  
FLORIDA PENINSULA TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR THE  
WIND FLOW TO SWING FROM A SOUTHERLY DIRECTION THIS AFTERNOON TO A  
EASTERLY DIRECTION TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY. BOTH THE EAST AND WEST  
COAST SEA BREEZES WILL ALSO DEVELOP AND PUSH INLAND TODAY FOCUSING  
ANY SHOWERS OVER THE INTERIOR AREAS THIS AFTERNOON. HOWEVER, THE  
COVERAGE WILL BE FEW AND FAR THIS AFTERNOON, AS DRIER AIR HAS  
WORKED INTO THE AREA FROM THE SOUTH. THEREFORE, THERE WILL ONLY BE  
SILENT 10 PERCENT POPS OVER THE INTERIOR AREAS FOR THIS AFTERNOON  
WITH LESS THAN 10 PERCENT OVER THE METRO AREAS.  
 
THE WINDS WILL REMAIN SOUTHEAST AT 10 TO 15 KNOTS OVER THE  
ATLANTIC WATERS TODAY LEADING TO A MODERATE RISK OF RIP CURRENTS  
ALONG THE EAST COAST BEACHES OF SOUTH FLORIDA. REST OF SOUTH  
FLORIDA WATERS WILL SEE WINDS AROUND 10 KNOTS MAINLY FROM THE  
SOUTHERLY DIRECTION.  
 
REST OF THE FORECAST LOOKS GOOD AT THIS TIME AND NO OTHER CHANGES  
ARE PLANNED.  
 

 
UPDATE...54/BNB  
 
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 737 AM EDT THU APR 27 2017/  
 
AVIATION...  
EASTERLY WINDS AROUND 10 MPH WILL INCREASE TO AROUND 15 MPH OVER  
THE EAST COAST TAF SITES TODAY, AS THE CEILING AND VIS WILL REMAIN  
IN THE VFR CONDITIONS. KAPF TAF SITE WILL SEE LIGHT SOUTHEAST  
WINDS THIS MORNING BEFORE SWINGING TO AN WESTERLY DIRECTION THIS  
AFTERNOON AROUND 10 MPH. THERE COULD STILL BE SOME FOG AROUND AT  
KAPF TAF SITE THROUGH 13Z WITH VIS AND CEILING DROPPING DOWN INTO  
IFR CONDITIONS. AFTER 13Z TODAY THE CEILING AND VIS SHOULD BE BACK  
INTO VFR CONDITIONS. THE WEATHER WILL ALSO REMAIN DRY OVER ALL OF  
SOUTH FLORIDA TAF SITES TODAY.  
 

 
AVIATION...54/BNB  
 
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 318 AM EDT THU APR 27 2017/  
 
DISCUSSION...  
CONVECTION REMAINS JUST BEYOND THE COASTAL WATERS OVER THE WESTERN  
BAHAMAS THIS MORNING. OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES FROM THIS CONVECTION  
COULD REACH TOWARDS SOUTH FLORIDA TODAY, PROMOTING THE POTENTIAL  
FOR SOME SHOWERS. OTHERWISE, IT IS EXPECTED TO BE A FAIRLY WARM  
DAY WITH THE SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW PUSH INLAND FROM THE ATLANTIC AND  
A GULF SEA BREEZE DEVELOPING AND PUSHING INLAND THIS AFTERNOON.  
EXPECT MOST OF THE RAIN CHANCES TO BE CONFINED ALONG THE EAST  
COAST AND OVER THE ATLANTIC WATERS.  
 
DEEP LAYERED HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN ON FRIDAY, PROMOTING A DRIER  
DAY WITH SUNSHINE AND SUMMER-LIKE WARMTH TO KICK OFF THE WEEKEND.  
THE NEXT FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL PROGRESS ACROSS THE CENTRAL UNITED  
STATES LATE IN THE WEEKEND AND MAKES ITS WAY TOWARDS THE SUNSHINE  
STATE MONDAY INTO TUESDAY. THERE IS SOME DIFFERENCE IN TIMING  
BETWEEN DIFFERENT GLOBAL GUIDANCE. WENT AHEAD AND BROAD-BRUSHED  
MUCH OF NEXT WEEK'S FORECAST DUE TO THIS UNCERTAINTY IN TIMING.  
THE FRONT WILL HAVE PLENTY OF MOISTURE AHEAD OF IT TO PROMOTE  
SHOWERS AND POTENTIALLY THUNDERSTORMS. AS OF RIGHT NOW, THE FRONT  
WILL ALSO PACK THE ABILITY TO HAVE SOME SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS  
ALONG WITH IT.  
 
AS THE FIRST FRONT EXITS MID TO LATE NEXT WEEK, THE NEXT SYSTEM  
EMERGES OVER THE REGION. THIS COULD TOO PACK A BIT OF A PUNCH AND  
THE FORECAST CONTINUES TO CARRY SHOWERS AND SOME THUNDERSTORMS  
THROUGH THE END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD. THIS IS STILL QUITE A BIT  
AWAY BEING LATE IN THE EXTENDED...SO CONFIDENCE IS LOW AND THE  
DIFFERENT MODELS ARE PROVIDING SLIGHTLY DIFFERENT SOLUTIONS AS  
WELL. IT WILL BE WORTH MONITORING THE FORECAST TREND WITH THESE  
FRONTAL SYSTEMS OVER THE NEXT WEEK OR SO.  
 
MARINE...  
WINDS AND SEAS SHOULD REMAIN BELOW HEADLINE CRITERIA HEADING INTO  
THE WEEKEND. SOME SHOWERS COULD BE POSSIBLE TODAY WITH THOSE  
CHANCES DROPPING FOR TOMORROW. DURING THE WEEKEND, THE APPROACHING  
FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL ALLOW WINDS AND SEAS TO BUILD WHICH COULD  
INTRODUCE HEADLINES LATER IN THE WEEKEND FOR MARINERS.  
 
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 219 AM EDT THU APR 27 2017/  
 
AVIATION...  
FOR THE EAST COAST TAF SITES, LIGHT SOUTHEAST WINDS WILL PERSIST  
THROUGH MID MORNING. A SCT/BKN LOW CLOUD DECK CONTINUES TO PUSH  
ASHORE FROM THE ATLANTIC, GIVING PERIODIC CEILINGS AROUND 1500 FT  
AGL TO MIA AND OPF. EXPECT THESE CLOUDS TO SHIFT NORTHWARD OVER  
THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS. SOUTH SOUTHEAST WINDS WILL INCREASE AFT  
27/1400Z, GENERALLY 12-15 KT, THEN DECREASE BACK TO AROUND 10 KT  
AFT 28/0000Z. A GULF SEA BREEZY MAY DEVELOP, BRINGING SOUTHWEST  
WINDS TO KAPF DURING THE AFTERNOON. OTHERWISE, EXPECT SCT LOW  
CLOUDS WITH BASES AROUND 3500 FT AGL AND VFR CONDS TO PREVAIL  
THROUGH TONIGHT.  

 
   
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
 
 
WEST PALM BEACH 89 76 88 77 / 10 10 10 10  
FORT LAUDERDALE 88 78 88 78 / 10 10 10 10  
MIAMI 89 77 90 77 / 10 10 10 10  
NAPLES 88 74 92 73 / 10 10 10 0  
 

 
   
MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
 
 
FL...NONE.  
AM...NONE.  
GM...NONE.  

 
 
UPDATE...54/BNB  
DISCUSSION...02/RAG  
MARINE...02/RAG  
AVIATION...54/BNB  
 
 
 
 
 
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