384
FXUS62 KMFL 091134
AFDMFL
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
734 AM EDT WED JUL 9 2008
AVIATION
VFR CONDITIONS TO PREVAIL ALONG WITH MODERATE ESE FLOW AROUND
13KTS AT ALL EAST COAST METRO TERMINALS TODAY. A FEW SHRA ARE PSBL
ROLLING ONSHORE FROM THE ATLANTIC AT TIMES...BUT SO FAR THEY HAVE
BEEN DISSIPATING AS THEY APPROACH THE COAST SO DID NOT INCLUDE
VCSH IN 12Z TAFS. AT KAPF...GENERAL ESE FLOW SHOULD GIVE WAY TO
SEA BREEZE FROM THE SW BY 19Z WHICH WILL LEAD TO ISOLD TSTM
DEVELOPMENT WITH BRIEF MVFR CIG/VSBY REDUCTIONS PSBL.
/STRASSBERG
PREV DISCUSSION
/ISSUED 430 AM EDT WED JUL 9 2008/
.A MOSTLY DRY WEATHER PATTERN TO CONTINUE THROUGH SATURDAY
DISCUSSION...HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD INTO THE
AREA TODAY. GFS SHOWS THE CENTER OF THE H5 RIDGE PARKED RIGHT OVER
MAINLAND SOUTH FLORIDA THIS AFTERNOON. THIS WILL LEAD TO
SUBSIDENCE...AND WITH A RELATIVELY DRY ATMOSPHERE...WILL CONTINUE
WITH JUST SLIGHT CHANCE POPS TODAY. ACARS DATA SHOWS THE LOW LEVEL
FLOW NEAR 15 KT...ALONG WITH A MORE PRONOUNCED LOW LEVEL INVERSION
THAN DEPICTED IN THE FCST SOUNDINGS...INDICATIVE OF THE SUBSIDENCE
TAKING PLACE. THE WINDS IN THE LOW LEVELS WILL NOT CHANGE MUCH
THIS AFTERNOON...SO AM NOT EXPECTING A GULF COAST SEA BREEZE TO
"FULLY" DEVELOP. THIS WILL MINIMIZE THE CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORM
DEVELOPMENT THIS AFTERNOON...BUT NOT MAKE IT IMPOSSIBLE. WITH SUCH
STRONG HEATING (NEAR RECORDS) AND A SLIGHT WIND "INFLUENCE" FROM THE
GULF (WINDS POSSIBLY VEERING TO SOUTHERLY)...WILL KEEP A SLIGHT
CHANCE OF STORMS INTERIOR/GULF COAST THIS AFTERNOON. AGAIN...ODDS
ARE AGAINST STORM DEVELOPMENT...BUT IF ONE DOES MANAGE TO
DEVELOP...IT COULD THEN BECOME STRONG AS IT WILL HAVE PLENTY OF
DRY AIR TO TAP INTO.
THE SAL/SAHARAN AIR LAYER WHICH MOVED INTO THE AREA YESTERDAY
WILL CONTINUE IN PLACE TODAY...SO SKIES WILL CONTINUE TO BE HAZY.
TEMPS WILL RUN ABOVE AVERAGE OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL
DAYS...ESPECIALLY HIGHS GULF COAST AND LOWS EAST COAST. AM
FORECASTING 94F AT NAPLES THE NEXT TWO DAYS...WHICH IS JUST ONE
DEGREE BELOW THE RECORD HIGHS FOR THE DATE.
THE RIDGE WILL CONTINUE TO DOMINATE THE WEATHER OVER THE NEXT
SEVERAL DAYS...KEEPING RAIN CHANCES VERY LOW FOR THIS TIME OF THE
YEAR. ISOLATED STORMS ARE MORE OF A POSSIBILITY INTERIOR/GULF
COAST OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS AS THE LOW LEVEL FLOW GRADUALLY
WEAKENS ALLOWING FOR A BETTER CHANCE OF SEA BREEZE FORMATION.
GFS/ECMWF SHOW A WELL DEFINED TROUGH DEVELOPING ALONG THE EASTERN
SEABOARD BY EARLY NEXT WEEK. THIS WILL PUSH THE RIDGE SOUTH
PROVIDING FOR A SW WIND FLOW...AND WITH INCREASING MOISTURE...A
RETURN TO OUR MORE TYPICAL CONVECTIVE PATTERN IS
ANTICIPATED...WITH FOCUS ALONG THE EAST COAST.
MARINE...EAST WINDS OF 10 TO 15 KT WILL PREVAIL TODAY...BEFORE
SUBSIDING THROUGH THE REST OF THE FCST PERIOD AS THE SURFACE RIDGE
AXIS WILL MOVE SOUTH...ACROSS THE AREA ON SATURDAY THEN INTO THE
STRAITS ON SUNDAY. THIS WILL EVENTUALLY LEAD TO A S-SW FLOW
LOCALLY LATE IN THE WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. EAST SWELL
GENERATED FROM BERTHA WILL BE BLOCKED BY THE BAHAMAS.
FIRE WEATHER...DEWPOINTS WILL REMAIN IN THE 70S THROUGH THE
PERIOD...SO NO CONCERNS.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
WEST PALM BEACH 89 80 90 78 / 10 10 20 10
FORT LAUDERDALE 89 82 88 81 / 10 10 20 10
MIAMI 90 81 89 79 / 10 10 20 10
NAPLES 94 74 94 74 / 20 10 20 10
MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
FL...NONE.
AM...NONE.
GM...NONE.
LONG TERM...57/DG
SHORT TERM/AVIATION...04/AT
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