770
FXUS62 KMFL 132212
AFDMFL
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
612 PM EDT MON OCT 13 2025
..NEW AVIATION
SHORT TERM
(TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 125 AM EDT MON OCT 13 2025
A COMPLEX MID LEVEL PATTERN IS SHAPING UP ACROSS THE EASTERN PORTION
OF THE COUNTRY AS TWO MID LEVEL CUT OFF LOWS, (ONE CENTERED OVER
THE SOUTHEAST AND ONE OVER THE NORTHEAST), GENERALLY PHASE
TOGETHER OFF OF THE MID ATLANTIC COASTLINE AS THE DAY PROGRESSES.
DEEP MID LEVEL TROUGHING WILL REMAIN OVER SOUTH FLORIDA TODAY
BEFORE GRADUALLY STARTING TO PULL AWAY TO THE NORTHEAST ON
TUESDAY. AT THE SURFACE, LOW PRESSURE OFF OF THE MID ATLANTIC AND
SOUTHEAST COASTLINE WILL NOT MOVE MUCH TODAY, HOWEVER, GRADUAL
MOVEMENT OFF TO THE NORTHEAST WILL BEGIN TONIGHT INTO TUESDAY.
THE CYCLONIC FLOW AROUND THE AREA OF LOW PRESSURE OFF OF THE MID
ATLANTIC COASTLINE COMBINED WITH THE OUTER PERIPHERY OF AN AREA
OF HIGH PRESSURE PUSHING TOWARDS THE REGION FROM THE NORTHWEST
WILL HELP TO KEEP A RATHER LIGHT NORTH TO NORTHEASTERLY WIND FLOW
IN PLACE ACROSS THE REGION TODAY. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR DRIER AIR TO
CONTINUE TO ADVECT INTO MOST OF SOUTH FLORIDA TODAY FROM THE
NORTH, HOWEVER, THERE WILL BE A RATHER SHARP LOWER LEVEL MOISTURE
GRADIENT SETTING UP OVER THE SOUTHERN PORTION OF THE REGION DUE TO
RESIDUAL MOISTURE NEAR THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY PARKED OVER THE
FLORIDA STRAITS. THE LATEST GUIDANCE SUITE SHOWS THIS NICELY AS
PWAT VALUES COULD FALL BELOW 1 INCH WEST OF LAKE OKEECHOBEE, WHILE
VALUES SOUTH AND EAST OF ALLIGATOR ALLEY COULD STILL RANGE FROM
1.4 TO 1.6 INCHES THIS AFTERNOON. WHILE MANY AREAS WILL REMAIN DRY
TODAY, SOME ISOLATED SHOWER ACTIVITY CANNOT BE RULED OUT OVER THE
SOUTHERN AREAS LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING HOURS AS THE
SEA BREEZES DEVELOP AND INTERACT PROVIDING A SOURCE OF LIFT. MOST
ACTIVITY WILL REMAIN LOW TOPPED DUE TO THE ABUNDANCE OF DRY AIR
ALOFT, HOWEVER, SOME BRIEF HEAVY DOWNPOURS CANNOT BE RULED OUT
WHERE SEA BREEZE BOUNDARY COLLISIONS TAKE PLACE. HIGH
TEMPERATURES TODAY WILL GENERALLY RISE INTO THE MID TO UPPER 80S
ACROSS MOST AREAS. THE EXCEPTION TO THIS WILL BE ACROSS INTERIOR
PORTIONS OF SOUTHWEST FLORIDA, WHERE 90 DEGREES WILL BE POSSIBLE.
ON TUESDAY, HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OFF TO THE NORTHWEST WILL
STRENGTHEN AS THE AREA OF LOW PRESSURE PULLS FURTHER AWAY TO THE
NORTHEAST IN THE ATLANTIC. THE MAIN DIFFERENCE IN THE WEATHER
PATTERN ON TUESDAY WILL BE A GRADUAL INCREASE IN THE NORTH TO
NORTHEASTERLY WIND FLOW DUE TO A TIGHTENING PRESSURE GRADIENT
BETWEEN THE HIGH TO THE NORTHWEST, AND THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY PARKED
OVER THE FLORIDA STRAITS. WHILE THERE WILL STILL BE AN ABUNDANCE OF
DRY AIR ACROSS THE MID TO UPPER LEVELS, THERE WILL BE ENOUGH LOWER
LEVEL MOISTURE TO SUPPORT AN ISOLATED SHOWER OR TWO OVER THE EXTREME
SOUTHEASTERN AREAS WHERE HIGHER MOISTURE CONTENT WILL BE FOUND
CLOSER TO THE FRONT. JUST LIKE TODAY, ANY SHOWERS WILL NOT HAVE MUCH
IN THE WAY OF VERTICAL DEVELOPMENT DUE TO THE DRY AIR ALOFT. HIGH
TEMPERATURES ON TUESDAY WILL GENERALLY RANGE FROM THE MID TO UPPER
80S ACROSS MOST AREAS, HOWEVER, SOME LOCATIONS ACROSS INTERIOR
SOUTHWEST FLORIDA COULD RISE TO AROUND 90.
LONG TERM
(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 125 AM EDT MON OCT 13 2025
HEADING INTO THE MIDDLE TO LATTER PORTION OF THE WEEK, MID LEVEL
RIDGING CENTERED OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS WILL GRADUALLY SLIDE
SOUTHEASTWARD INTO THE GULF AND TOWARDS THE FLORIDA PENINSULA DURING
THIS TIME FRAME. AT THE SAME TIME, MID LEVEL TROUGHING WILL AMPLIFY
OVER THE ATLANTIC WHICH WILL PROMOTE A NORTHWESTERLY WIND FLOW ALOFT
OVER THE REGION. AT THE SURFACE, LOW PRESSURE WILL REMAIN FAR TO THE
EAST IN THE ATLANTIC, HOWEVER, THE LATEST GUIDANCE SUITE REMAINS IN
RELATIVELY GOOD AGREEMENT WITH SWEEPING A REINFORCING WEAK FRONTAL
BOUNDARY ACROSS SOUTH FLORIDA SOMETIME BETWEEN WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO
THURSDAY. WHILE THIS FRONTAL BOUNDARY LOOKS TO BE WEAK, IT WILL
BRING IN AN ADDITIONAL SOURCE OF LIFT ALONG WITH LOWER LEVEL
MOISTURE ADVECTION OUT AHEAD OF AND ALONG THE BOUNDARY. THIS
COULD CREATE A SLIGHT INCREASE THE CHANCES OF SHOWER ACTIVITY
AREA WIDE LATER ON WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY. WITH THE ABUNDANCE
OF DRY AIR ALOFT ALREADY IN PLACE, OVERALL SHOWER COVERAGE SHOULD
SHOULD REMAIN ON THE LOWER END AND ANY SHOWERS THAT DO FORM WILL
REMAIN RATHER LOW TOPPED. THIS ABUNDANCE OF DRY AIR ALOFT WILL
KEEP THUNDERSTORM CHANCES VERY LIMITED DURING THIS TIME FRAME.
HIGH TEMPERATURES DURING THE MIDDLE TO LATTER PORTION OF NEXT WEEK
WILL GENERALLY RISE INTO THE MID TO UPPER 80S ACROSS MOST AREAS.
FOR THE UPCOMING WEEKEND, THE UNCERTAINTY RISES A LITTLE BIT AS THE
LATEST GUIDANCE SUITE DOES SUGGEST THE WEAKENING FRONTAL BOUNDARY
STALLS OUT JUST TO THE SOUTH OF THE REGION OVER THE FLORIDA STRAITS
AS STRONG HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE NORTH. THIS WOULD CREATE
A TIGHTENING PRESSURE GRADIENT ACROSS THE REGION WHICH COULD CREATE
A BREEZY NORTHEASTERLY WIND FLOW DURING THIS TIME FRAME. WITH ENOUGH
LOWER LEVEL MOISTURE REMAINING IN PLACE, A LOW END SHOWER CHANCE
WILL BE MAINTAINED DURING THIS TIME FRAME WITH THE FRONT POTENTIALLY
REMAINING CLOSE BY TO THE SOUTH. IF THIS FRONT WERE TO GET PUSHED
FURTHER TO THE SOUTH, THERE WOULD BE A POTENTIAL FOR DRIER
CONDITIONS, HOWEVER, THE LATEST FORECAST TAKES A BLEND OF THE
MODELS AND KEEPS A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS IN PLACE BOTH ON
SATURDAY AND SUNDAY. THIS WILL CONTINUE TO BE MONITORED AS THE
WEEK PROGRESSES. HIGH TEMPERATURES OVER THE WEEKEND WILL REMAIN IN
THE MID TO UPPER 80S ACROSS MOST AREAS.
AVIATION
(00Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 609 PM EDT MON OCT 13 2025
LIGHT NORTHEASTERLY FLOW THIS EVENING WILL BECOME LIGHT AND
VARIABLE OVERNIGHT WITH VFR AND DRY CONDITIONS PREVAILING AT ALL
TERMINALS. WINDS WILL VEER MORE NORTHERLY ON TUESDAY AND ENHANCE
WITH DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS. CANNOT RULE OUT AN ISOLATED
SHOWER OR TWO ONCE AGAIN TOMORROW AFTERNOON BUT CONFIDENCE IN
COVERAGE REMAINS TOO LOW TO INCLUDE MENTION OF VICINITY SHOWERS
AT ANY TERMINAL AT THIS TIME.
MARINE
ISSUED AT 125 AM EDT MON OCT 13 2025
WINDS WILL GRADUALLY SHIFT AND BECOME MORE NORTH TO NORTHEASTERLY
TODAY INTO TUESDAY WHILE REMAINING MODERATE. THESE NORTH TO
NORTHEASTERLY WINDS WILL GRADUALLY INCREASE AND BECOME OCCASIONALLY
FRESH ACROSS THE ATLANTIC WATERS HEADING INTO THE MIDDLE OF THE
WEEK. A LINGERING NORTHEASTERLY SWELL IN THE ATLANTIC WATERS WILL
SLOWLY DIMINISH THROUGH THE EARLY PORTION OF THE WEEK. THIS WILL
RESULT IN SEAS ACROSS THE ATLANTIC WATERS RANGING BETWEEN 3 TO 5
FEET THROUGH TUESDAY. SEAS ACROSS THE GULF WATERS WILL GENERALLY
REMAIN BETWEEN 1 AND 3 FEET DURING THIS TIME FRAME. ISOLATED TO
SCATTERED SHOWERS CANNOT BE RULED OUT TODAY AND TUESDAY MAINLY
ACROSS THE ATLANTIC WATERS.
BEACHES
ISSUED AT 125 AM EDT MON OCT 13 2025
DUE TO A LINGERING NORTHEASTERLY SWELL IN THE ATLANTIC WATERS, A
HIGH RISK OF RIP CURRENTS WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE PALM BEACHES
THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK. A MODERATE RISK OF RIP CURRENTS WILL
REMAIN IN PLACE ACROSS THE BROWARD AND MIAMI DADE COUNTY BEACHES
DURING THIS TIME FRAME.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
MIAMI 73 85 71 85 / 10 10 0 0
WEST KENDALL 72 86 70 85 / 10 10 0 10
OPA-LOCKA 73 86 71 85 / 0 10 0 10
HOMESTEAD 74 84 71 84 / 10 10 0 0
FORT LAUDERDALE 73 84 72 84 / 0 0 0 0
N FT LAUDERDALE 73 84 72 85 / 0 0 0 0
PEMBROKE PINES 74 87 72 87 / 0 0 0 10
WEST PALM BEACH 72 84 71 84 / 0 0 0 10
BOCA RATON 72 86 71 85 / 0 0 0 0
NAPLES 70 87 69 87 / 0 0 0 0
MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
FL...HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK THROUGH WEDNESDAY EVENING FOR FLZ168.
AM...NONE.
GM...NONE.
SHORT TERM...CWC
LONG TERM....CWC
AVIATION...HADI
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