093
FXUS62 KMFL 041809
AFDMFL
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
209 PM EDT SAT JUL 4 2009
AVIATION
BRIEF PERIODS OF MVFR CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE FOR ALL SOUTH
FLORIDA TERMINALS FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS. SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ARE FORMING CLOSE TO THE EAST AND WEST COAST LINES
THIS AFTERNOON. CURRENTLY THE LIGHTNING ACTIVITY IS MOST ACTIVE
NEAR TERMINALS FLL...TMB AND MIA. ADDITIONAL SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE INTO THE EARLY EVENING HOURS.
60
PREV DISCUSSION
/ISSUED 152 PM EDT SAT JUL 4 2009/
SYNOPSIS...LATEST RUC ANALYSIS (17Z) SHOWS THE AXIS OF A
200-300MB TROUGH EXTENDING FROM N ATLC SOUTHWEST THROUGH EXTREME
S. FLORIDA WITH DRIER AIR RIGHT BEHIND THE AXIS. A 850 MB MAINLY A
WEAK DIFFLUENT FLOW IS INDICATED OVER THE LOCAL AREA BETWEEN THE
ATLANTIC AND GULF OF MEX LOW LVL RIDGE. THIS MOST LIKELY HAVE
CONTRIBUTED, BOTH, TO THE DELAY AND SCARCITY OF CONVECTION SO FAR
TODAY. LATEST RADAR OBS SHOWS THREE TO FOUR CELLS AFFECTING THE
EASTERN ZONES AS THE SEA BREEZE SLOWLY MARCHES INLAND.
SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY...LATEST GFS INDICATES THAT
THE UPPER TROUGH SHOULD CONTINUE TO MOVE EAST BUT KEEP THE LOCAL
AREA UNDER DIV/DIFFLUENCE ALOFT. AT THE SAME TIME THE ATLC RIDGE WILL
BUILD EAST AND DRIFT NORTHWARD PUTTING THE LOCAL AREA UNDER A
DEEPER EASTERLY FLOW. THIS WILL KEEP S. FLORIDA UNDER FAVORABLE
CONDITIONS FOR AFTERNOON CONVECTION TO DEVELOP AS LOCAL EFFECTS
WILL HAVE A MORE SIGNIFICANT IMPACT ON THE LOCAL WEATHER
CONDITIONS. HOWEVER...WL EXPECT CONVECTION TO DECREASE SIGNIFICANTLY DURING
THE NIGHTS, BOTH TONIGHT AND SUNDAY NIGHT, AS DIURNAL HEATING
DIMINISHES. SCT AFTERNOON POPS SEEM TO BE QUITE GOOD FOR SUNDAY
AGAIN. A DEVELOPING LONG WAVE TROUGH FROM GREAT LAKES SOUTH TO
NRN GULF ON MONDAY WILL RESULT IN A MORE SW STEERING FLOW, SO WILL
EXPECT HIGHEST POPS TO BE TRANSFERED TO EASTERN ZONES.
LONG TERM...TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...NOT SIGNIFICANT CHANGES
EXPECTED THROUGH THIS PERIOD AS THE LOCAL AREA CONTINUES UNDER A
DEEP LOW LEVEL EASTERLY FLOW AND MOSTLY SW STEERING FLOW ALOFT.
ALTHOUGH NO MAJOR SYNOPTIC FEATURE IS EXPECTED TO AFFECT THE AREA,
WX CONDITIONS OVER S. FLORIDA WILL CONTINUE TO BE THE RESULT OF
LOCAL EFFECTS, SEA/LAKE BREEZES AND DIURNAL HEATING WITH SCT
DISORGANIZED AFTERNOON CONVECTION EACH DAY.
MARINE...MOSTLY A LIGHT TO GENTLE SOUTH TO SOUTHEAST FLOW AT THE
SURFACE WILL CONTINUE THROUGH MID WEEK WITH SEAS AT OR BELOW 2 FEET.
FIRE WEATHER...NO CONCERNS AT THIS TIME.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
WEST PALM BEACH 79 90 76 90 / 20 50 20 50
FORT LAUDERDALE 79 89 77 89 / 20 50 20 50
MIAMI 78 91 78 90 / 20 50 20 50
NAPLES 76 89 76 89 / 20 30 20 30
MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
FL...NONE.
AM...NONE.
GM...NONE.
LONG TERM...47/RHG
SHORT TERM/AVIATION...60/BD
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