067  
FXUS62 KMFL 211226  
AFDMFL  
 
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION  
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL  
826 AM EDT SAT OCT 21 2017  
   
AVIATION
 
 
SCATTERED SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD ACROSS ALL  
EASTERN TERMINALS, BRINGING BRIEF MVFR CONDITIONS AT TIMES,  
OTHERWISE VFR WILL PREVAIL. EAST WINDS OF 10 TO 15 KT THIS MORNING  
WILL BECOME QUITE GUSTY DURING THE AFTERNOON...REACHING 25 KT AT  
TIMES, THEN DIMINISH TO AROUND 10 KT TONIGHT.  
 

 
   
PREV DISCUSSION
 
/ISSUED 359 AM EDT SAT OCT 21 2017/  
   
.HIGH RISK OF RIP CURRENTS ALONG THE ATLANTIC BEACHES
 
 
DISCUSSION...  
EASTERLY FLOW WILL CONTINUE OVER THE REGION AS THE REMNANTS OF THE  
FRONTAL BOUNDARY DRAPED OVER THE BAHAMAS AND CUBA GIVE WAY TO HIGH  
PRESSURE BUILDING OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN UNITED STATES. A SURGE OF  
MOISTURE FROM THE TROPICALS WILL ROUND THE RIDGE AND PUSH ACROSS  
SOUTHERN FLORIDA, THE FLORIDA STRAITS, AND CUBA TODAY INTO SUNDAY,  
WITH A WARM FRONT DEVELOPING AS THE MOISTURE SURGES NORTHWARD. THIS  
PATTERN WILL PROMOTE INTERMITTENT ATLANTIC SHOWERS THAT PUSH ASHORE  
AND INCREASING CLOUD COVER.  
 
AS THE NEXT WORK WEEK KICKS OFF, A FRONTAL SYSTEM ASSOCIATED WITH A  
LOW IN CANADA WILL BE PUSHING ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES AND LOWER  
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. AS THIS SYSTEM PUSHES EASTWARD, THE CUTOFF  
MID-LEVEL LOW COULD DEVELOP OVER THE INTERSTATE 20 CORRIDOR. THE  
POTENTIAL FOR A LINE OF STORMS PUSHING ACROSS THE GULF EXISTS AND  
THE PROGRESS OF THIS SYSTEM WILL NEED TO BE MONITORED AS IT COULD  
SIGNAL THE FIRST CHANCES OF SIGNIFICANT THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY  
ACROSS THE REGION IN THE LAST FEW WEEKS. IT IS STILL TOO EARLY TO  
PINPOINT POTENTIAL IMPACTS FROM THIS SYSTEM'S CONVECTION ACROSS  
THE AREA. THE 00Z GFS AND 00Z ECMWF ARE BOTH DEPICTING A BROKEN  
LINE OF CONVECTION PUSHING ACROSS THE REGION TUESDAY INTO  
WEDNESDAY.  
 
IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT, COOLER AND DRIER AIR BEGIN TO FILTER  
THEIR WAY INTO THE PENINSULA OF FLORIDA. WITH THIS CHANGE IN  
AIRMASS WILL COME OUR FIRST TASTE OF THE DRY SEASON AND  
TEMPERATURES WILL STRUGGLE TO REACH INTO THE 80S ON WEDNESDAY AND  
THURSDAY WITH TEMPERATURES DROPPING INTO THE 50S AND 60S ACROSS  
MUCH OF THE AREA ON WEDNESDAY NIGHT/THURSDAY MORNING. HIGH  
PRESSURE WILL QUICKLY BUILD BEHIND THE FRONT, BUT ITS POSITION  
OVER THE BAHAMAS COULD POTENTIALLY ALLOW MOISTURE TO RETURN AT  
THE END OF THE PERIOD ALLOWING AN INCREASE IN TEMPERATURES AND  
RAIN CHANCES TO CLOSE OUT THE EXTENDED FORECAST PERIOD LATE IN THE  
WEEK.  
 
MARINE...  
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL OVER MUCH OF THE  
COASTAL WATERS THROUGH THE WEEKEND AS ENE WINDS BECOME STRONGER,  
WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR A SMALL WINDOW FOR IMPROVEMENT TO  
CAUTIONARY CONDITIONS ON SUNDAY DURING THE DAY BEFORE WINDS  
INCREASE SUNDAY NIGHT. CONDITIONS SHOULD IMPROVE EARLY NEXT WEEK  
AS WIND SPEEDS GRADUALLY DECREASE.  
 
BEACH FORECAST...  
PERSISTENT EASTERLY FLOW WILL ALLOW THE HIGH RISK OF RIP CURRENTS  
TO PERSIST THROUGH THE WEEKEND INTO EARLY PARTS OF THE WORK WEEK.  
THE FLOODING ALONG THE EAST COAST DURING HIGH TIDE SHOULD BEGIN TO  
DECREASE OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL CYCLES AS THE NEW MOON PHASE ENDS.  
 

 
   
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
 
 
WEST PALM BEACH 86 78 89 78 / 40 60 50 30  
FORT LAUDERDALE 87 79 88 80 / 50 60 30 30  
MIAMI 87 79 88 79 / 50 60 30 30  
NAPLES 90 75 91 76 / 20 20 30 20  
 

 
   
MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
 
 
FL...HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK THROUGH SUNDAY EVENING FOR FLZ168-172-173.  
 
COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR FLZ168.  
 
AM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EDT SUNDAY FOR AMZ650-651-670-  
671.  
 
GM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EDT SUNDAY FOR GMZ676.  
 

 
 
 
DISCUSSION...02/RAG  
MARINE...02/RAG  
AVIATION...23/SK  
BEACH FORECAST...02/RAG  
 
 
 
 
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