802
FXUS62 KMLB 221415
AFDMLB
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MELBOURNE FL
915 AM EST FRI NOV 22 2024
..NEW UPDATE
KEY MESSAGES
ISSUED AT 206 AM EST FRI NOV 22 2024
- POOR TO HAZARDOUS BOATING CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH
TONIGHT.
- BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES FORECAST TO PERSIST THROUGH THIS
WEEKEND, AND WILL BE THE COLDEST TEMPERATURES OF THE SEASON SO FAR.
- REMAINING DRY OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS, WITH FIRE SENSITIVE
CONDITIONS CONTINUING INTO THIS WEEKEND.
UPDATE
ISSUED AT 915 AM EST FRI NOV 22 2024
IT WAS A COLDER START TO THIS MORNING, WITH TEMPERATURES AS LOW
AS THE 40S ACROSS MUCH OF THE REGION. VERY DRY AND COOLER AIRMASS
WILL KEEP SUNNY SKIES IN PLACE TODAY, WITH HIGHS BETWEEN 5 TO 10
DEGREES BELOW NORMAL IN THE MID TO UPPER 60S FOR MOST LOCATIONS,
EXCEPT AROUND 70 DEGREES ALONG THE TREASURE COAST. WEST-NORTHWEST
WINDS WILL PICK UP TO AROUND 10 TO 15 MPH, WITH GUSTS UP TO 20 TO
25 MPH TODAY. FORECAST IS ON TRACK, WITH NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES
NEEDED.
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 206 AM EST FRI NOV 22 2024
CURRENT-TONIGHT...A COOL START TO THE MORNING WITH AREAWIDE 40S
NEAR SUNRISE EXPECTED, AND L50S FOR THE BARRIER ISLANDS. LOWEST
WIND CHILL READINGS AROUND SUNRISE MAY FALL INTO THE U30S TO L40S
ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA. VIGOROUS MID-LEVEL TROUGHING CONTINUES
ALONG THE ATLC SEABOARD. THIS WILL PUSH A DRY, REINFORCING COLD
FRONT ACROSS ECFL EARLY IN THE PERIOD. WINDS WILL VEER WNW/NW AND
INCREASE DURING THE DAY FROM 5-10 MPH TO 15-20 MPH (BREEZY) WITH
FREQUENT HIGHER GUSTS (UP TO AROUND 25 MPH) DUE TO A TIGHTENING
PRESSURE GRADIENT. WITH THE REINFORCEMENT OF COOLER/DRIER AIR,
EXPECT AFTERNOON MAXES 7-10 DEGREES BELOW CLIMO, FROM THE M60S
ACROSS THE I-4 CORRIDOR WITH U60S SOUTHWARD AND PERHAPS A 70F
READING FOR A COUPLE SPOTS. HOWEVER, THE BREEZY/GUSTY NW WINDS
WILL MAKE IT FEEL MUCH COOLER. TONIGHT WILL BE A BIT COOLER WITH
WIDESPREAD L-M40S FOR MOST, EXCEPT M-U40S AT IMMEDIATE SPACE &
TREASURE COASTS. A FEW NORMALLY COOLER SPOTS ACROSS THE RURAL
INTERIOR MAY REALIZE U30S FOR MINS. WNW WINDS WILL DIMINISH TO
NEAR 5 MPH THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT. TOWARDS SUNRISE LOWEST WIND
CHILL READINGS WILL FALL INTO THE M-U30S (1-3HRS).
SAT-SUN...THE AFOREMENTIONED MID-LEVEL TROUGHING PUSHES AWAY FROM
THE EASTERN SEABOARD AND DEEPER INTO THE ATLC, WITH ZONAL FLOW
RETURNING TO MUCH OF THE GULF COAST STATES AND SOUTHEAST U.S.
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS THE DEEP SOUTH AND NORTHERN GOMEX WILL
TRANSLATE EASTWARD AND TAKE UP RESIDENCY ACROSS THE FL PENINSULA BY
LATE SAT, CONTINUING ITS GRIP ACROSS THE AREA THRU THE DURATION
OF THIS PERIOD. NW WINDS 7-12 MPH ON SAT WILL DIMINISH AND BE
LIGHT SAT NIGHT-SUN NIGHT AS THE PGRAD RELAXES. CONDITIONS REMAIN
DRY AND BELOW NORMAL FOR HIGHS/LOWS. HIGHS ON SAT MAINLY IN THE
U60S FOR MOST WITH A SLIGHT WARMING TREND INTO SUN WITH READINGS
IN THE L-M70S. CONTINUED "COOL" LOWS SAT NIGHT, WITH L-M40S
ACROSS THE INTERIOR AND U40S FOR ALONG THE COAST - PERHAPS A FEW
L50S FOR IMMEDIATE TREASURE COAST. FOR SUN NIGHT, EXPECT U40S TO
L50S FOR MUCH OF THE INTERIOR/VOLUSIA COAST AND M-U50S FOR THE
SPACE AND TREASURE COASTS. BARRIER ISLANDS WILL BE A BIT WARMER.
MON-FRI...MAINLY ZONAL FLOW ALOFT CONTINUES THROUGH THE UPCOMING
WORK-WEEK. WEAK HIGH PRESSURE A MAINSTAY ACROSS THE AREA, UNTIL THE
NEXT FORMIDABLE FRONT FORECAST TO PUSH INTO CENTRAL FL LATE FRI
AFTERNOON-FRI NIGHT. WE CONTINUE TO KEEP CONDITIONS DRY THRU THE
PERIOD. THE WARMING TREND STARTED ON SUN WILL CONTINUE WITH U70S TO
AROUND 80F (M70S VOLUSIA COAST MON) FOR MON-WED AND GENERALLY
79-83F PRACTICALLY AREAWIDE THU/FRI. MINS IN THE 50S FOR MUCH OF
THE INTERIOR WITH SOME L60S GRADUALLY RETURNING E OF I-95 AND
POSSIBLY M-U60S BY THU MORNING FOR IMMEDIATE ST. LUCIE/MARTIN
COUNTIES. GENERALLY LIGHT WINDS THRU THE PERIOD.
MARINE
ISSUED AT 206 AM EST FRI NOV 22 2024
TODAY-TONIGHT...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES GREET ALL MARINE LEGS AS A
REINFORCING DRY/COLD FRONT PUSHES SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE AREA EARLY
IN THE PERIOD. THIS WILL INCREASE WNW/NW WINDS TO AROUND 20 KTS
(25 KTS WELL OFFSHORE) WITH HIGHER GUSTS EXPECTED. WIND SPEEDS
BEGIN TO DIMINISH LATER TODAY AND TONIGHT, 13-18 KTS TONIGHT.
ADVISORIES FALL OFF NEAR SHORE AT 21Z/4PM TODAY BUT CONTINUE INTO
TONIGHT FOR OFFSHORE LEGS. SEAS WILL BUILD 4-6 FT NEAR SHORE EARLY
IN THE PERIOD AND 6-8 FT OFFSHORE, SUBSIDING 3-5 FT NEAR SHORE
LATER IN THE DAY BECOMING 3-4 FT NEAR SHORE BY DAYBREAK SAT
MORNING AND GENERALLY 4-6 FT OFFSHORE.
SAT-TUE...HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE AREA THROUGH THE EXTENDED
WITH CONTINUED DRY CONDITIONS AND MUCH LIGHTER WINDS AS THE PRESSURE
GRADIENT RELAXES. POOR CONDITIONS (4-6 FT SEAS) INITIALLY IN THE
GULF STREAM EARLY ON SAT, WITH SEAS CONTINUING TO SUBSIDE THRU THE
WEEKEND AND EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH GENERALLY FAVORABLE BOATING
CONDITIONS. HOWEVER, HAZARDOUS CONDITIONS MAY DEVELOP NEAR INLETS
DURING THE OUTGOING TIDE SOMETIME ON SUN AND CONTINUING INTO
EARLY NEXT WEEK AS AN INCREASING (ENE/NE) LONG PERIOD SWELL (12-14
SECONDS) IS FORECAST.
AVIATION
(12Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 612 AM EST FRI NOV 22 2024
SKC PREVAILING THROUGH THE PERIOD. NW WINDS AROUND 15KTS AND GUSTING
TO 20-25KTS AFTER 14-15Z WILL DIMINISH LATE THIS AFTERNOON. THEN,
BECOME AROUND 5KTS 1Z THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
DAB 67 42 67 45 / 0 0 0 0
MCO 68 44 66 46 / 0 0 0 0
MLB 69 45 67 49 / 0 0 0 0
VRB 70 45 68 49 / 0 0 0 0
LEE 66 42 67 45 / 0 0 0 0
SFB 67 42 67 45 / 0 0 0 0
ORL 68 45 67 47 / 0 0 0 0
FPR 70 45 68 48 / 0 0 0 0
MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
FL...NONE.
AM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR AMZ550-
552-555.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 AM EST SATURDAY FOR AMZ570-572-575.
UPDATE...WEITLICH
AVIATION...LEAHY
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