486
FXUS62 KMLB 171400
AFDMLB
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MELBOURNE FL
959 AM EDT THU APR 17 2025
..NEW UPDATE, FIRE WEATHER
KEY MESSAGES
ISSUED AT 958 AM EDT THU APR 17 2025
- SENSITIVE TO NEAR CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING OVER THE INTERIOR OF EAST CENTRAL FLORIDA.
FIRE SENSITIVE CONDITIONS CONTINUE THROUGH LATE THIS WEEK
- NO RAIN IS FORECAST THROUGH THE WEEKEND. NEXT WEEK, THERE IS AT
LEAST A LOW CHANCE OF A FEW SHOWERS
- A SLOW WARMING TREND IS FORECAST THROUGH THE WEEKEND
UPDATE
ISSUED AT 958 AM EDT THU APR 17 2025
LOCAL RADAR IMAGERY SHOWS DRY WEATHER OVER EAST CENTRAL FLORIDA
AND GOES-16 SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS CLEAR SKIES. HIGH PRESSURE
(~1024MB) IS CENTERED OVER THE NORTHEASTERN CONUS AND HIGH
PRESSURE (~1020MB) IS CENTERED OVER THE EASTERN GULF OF AMERICA,
IN ADDITION TO, THE STATE OF FLORIDA. TEMPERATURES ARE CURRENTLY
IN THE LOW 60S TO MID 70S WITH DEW POINTS IN THE LOW 50S TO LOW
60S. WINDS ARE GENERALLY LIGHT FROM THE NORTH-NORTHEAST AT
4-10MPH. DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED TODAY WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 70S
TO LOW 80S ALONG THE COAST AND IN THE LOW TO UPPER 80S OVER THE
INTERIOR WEST OF I-95 WITH SUNNY SKIES. VERY LOW HUMIDITY AND
EAST-NORTHEAST WINDS AROUND 10-15MPH THIS AFTERNOON WILL RESULT IN
FIRE SENSITIVE TO NEAR CRITICAL CONDITIONS, MAINLY OVER THE
INTERIOR OF EAST CENTRAL FLORIDA THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
FIRE WEATHER
ISSUED AT 958 AM EDT THU APR 17 2025
WARM AND DRY CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE TO PROMOTE FIRE
SENSITIVITIES LATE THIS WEEK. MIN RHS ARE EXPECTED TO FALL BELOW
CRITICAL VALUES ACROSS THE INTERIOR THIS AFTERNOON BETWEEN 20-35%.
EAST TO NORTHEAST WINDS AROUND 5-10 MPH ARE EXPECTED TODAY AND
ARE FORECAST TO LOCALLY INCREASE TO 15 MPH ALONG THE SEA BREEZE
BOUNDARY THIS AFTERNOON. WIND SPEEDS WILL BE MONITORED INTO THIS
AFTERNOON AND IF CONFIDENCE INCREASES IN WIND SPEEDS TO 15MPH, A
RED FLAG WARNING WILL BE ISSUED MAINLY OVER INLAND VOLUSIA,
SEMINOLE, ORANGE, OSCEOLA, AND OKEECHOBEE COUNTIES. FIRE SENSITIVE
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED OVER BREVARD, INLAND, ST. LUCIE, AND
INLAND MARTIN COUNTIES WITH RH VALUES IN THE LOW 30S TO MID 40S
AND EAST- NORTHEAST WINDS AT 10-15MPH. HIGH PRESSURE STRENGTHENS
OVER THE ATLANTIC FRIDAY WHICH WILL INCREASE ONSHORE WINDS TO
15-20 MPH THROUGH THE WEEKEND. HOWEVER, MIN RH VALUES RECOVER LATE
WEEK AND INCREASE TO 40-50%. NO PRECIP IS FORECAST THROUGH THE
REMAINDER OF THE WEEK.
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 405 AM EDT THU APR 17 2025
TODAY-SATURDAY... SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE MOVES OFF THE EASTERN
SEABOARD AND INTO THE WESTERN ATLANTIC LATE WEEK. DRY CONDITIONS
CONTINUE WITH NO MENTIONABLE PRECIP INTO THE WEEKEND. LIGHT
NORTHEAST WINDS THIS MORNING GRADUALLY SHIFT EAST INTO THE
AFTERNOON, INCREASING TO 10-15 MPH AS THE SEA BREEZE DEVELOPS AND
DRIFTS INLAND. INCREASING ONSHORE FLOW BECOMES GUSTY FRIDAY AND
SATURDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE STRENGTHENS. HIGH TEMPERATURES FOLLOW A
GRADUAL WARMING TREND EACH DAY REACHING THE MID TO UPPER 80S ACROSS
THE INTERIOR AND THE UPPER 70S TO LOW 80S IN VICINITY OF I-95. LOWS
WIDELY RANGING THE 50S THIS MORNING, WARM INTO THE UPPER 50S AND LOW
60S FRIDAY AND SATURDAY. WARMER ALONG THE SOUTHERN BREVARD AND
TREASURE COASTS LATE THIS WEEK WITH LOWS IN THE MID TO UPPER 60S.
SUNDAY-TUESDAY... HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS THE WESTERN ATLANTIC SHIFTS
SOUTHWARD AND WEAKENS. GUSTY EAST WINDS VEER SOUTHEAST ON SUNDAY.
SOUTH TO SOUTHEAST WINDS THEN DIMINISH MONDAY AND TUESDAY, BACKING
ONSHORE AS THE EAST COAST SEABREEZE DEVELOPS EACH AFTERNOON. MODEST
MOISTURE BUILDS ACROSS NORTH FLORIDA AS A COLD FRONT DIPS INTO THE
SOUTHEAST U.S. ENOUGH MOISTURE ADVECTS INTO PORTIONS OF CENTRAL
FLORIDA ON TUESDAY TO SUPPORT A LIMITED CHANCE (15%) OF SHOWERS
AND STORMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF VOLUSIA, LAKE, AND SEMINOLE
COUNTIES. OTHERWISE, DRY CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST TO PERSIST. A
CONTINUED WARMING TREND IS EXPECTED NEXT WEEK. HIGHS IN THE MID TO
UPPER 80S ACROSS THE INTERIOR ON SUNDAY INCREASE INTO THE UPPER
80S AND LOW 90S BY TUESDAY. COASTAL TEMPERATURES WARM THROUGH THE
LOW TO MID 80S EACH DAY. LOWS ARE MOSTLY FORECAST IN THE MID TO
UPPER 60S EACH MORNING WITH LOW 60S ACROSS NORMALLY COOLER RURAL
AREAS.
WEDNESDAY-THURSDAY... AN ACTIVE SEA BREEZE PATTERN LOOKS TO PROVIDE
THE NEXT CHANCE FOR WETTING RAIN ACROSS EAST CENTRAL FLORIDA. HAVE
KEPT ONLY A 20% CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS ACROSS EAST CENTRAL
FLORIDA EACH AFTERNOON, ACKNOWLEDGING SOME MODEL DISAGREEMENTS IN
PRECIP ACROSS THE LONG TERM. HIGH TEMPERATURES CONTINUE IN THE
UPPER 80S TO LOW 90S WEST OF I-95, RANGING THE LOW TO MID 80S
EASTWARD. MORNING LOWS REMAIN STEADY, MOSTLY IN THE MID TO UPPER
60S.
MARINE
ISSUED AT 405 AM EDT THU APR 17 2025
TODAY-FRIDAY... HIGH PRESSURE MOVES OFF THE EASTERN SEABOARD,
BUILDING OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC. NORTHEAST WINDS VEER EAST AROUND
10 KTS TODAY. ONSHORE WINDS THEN INCREASES OVERNIGHT BECOMING 12-17
KTS TOMORROW. SEAS OF 2-3 FT ARE FORECAST TODAY WITH OCCASIONAL SEAS
UP TO 4 FT LINGERING IN THE GULF STREAM. BUILDING SEAS BECOME WIDELY
3-4 FT TOMORROW. NO PRECIP IS FORECAST.
SATURDAY-MONDAY... GUSTY EAST TO SOUTHEAST FLOW CONTINUES THIS
WEEKEND, SLACKENING TO 10-15 KTS BY MONDAY. WIDESPREAD SEAS OF 3-4
FT LINGER THROUGH THE PERIOD. DRY CONDITIONS PERSIST.
AVIATION
(12Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 630 AM EDT THU APR 17 2025
VFR/SKC CONDITIONS PREVAILING. E WINDS TODAY ENHANCING BEHIND THE
SEA BREEZE, BEGINNING ALONG THE COAST AROUND 14Z BEFORE
SPREADING INLAND THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AND REACHING MCO BY 22Z.
WINDS INCREASING TO 10-14KTS. LIGHTER EASTERLY WINDS THEN
DEVELOPING IN THE EVENING AND OVERNIGHT HOURS.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
DAB 79 63 81 63 / 0 0 0 0
MCO 85 62 84 63 / 0 0 0 0
MLB 80 65 80 67 / 0 0 0 0
VRB 80 64 81 65 / 0 0 0 0
LEE 85 61 86 62 / 0 0 0 0
SFB 84 61 84 62 / 0 0 0 0
ORL 85 63 84 64 / 0 0 0 0
FPR 80 64 80 65 / 0 0 0 0
MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
FL...NONE.
AM...NONE.
UPDATE...FEHLING
AVIATION...LEAHY
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