465  
FXUS62 KMLB 180119  
AFDMLB  
 
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION  
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MELBOURNE FL  
920 PM EDT FRI AUG 17 2018  
   
DISCUSSION
 
 
ECFL REMAINS UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF AN ANOMALOUSLY DRY AIR MASS WITH  
MEAN PWAT VALUES MUCH LOWER THAN CLIMO, AS SHOWN IN THE LATEST XMR  
RAOB, WHICH DROPPED FROM 1.55" LATE THIS MORNING TO 1.25" AT 00Z.  
THIS APPEARS TO BE ASSOCIATED WITH THE WESTERN FLANK OF A SAL POUCH,  
SEEN IN GOES-16 RGB DUST AND SPLIT WINDOW IMAGERY, ALTHOUGH LOCAL  
SKY CONDITION THIS AFTERNOON DID'T SHOW TYPICAL HAZE WHICH GENERALLY  
ACCOMPANIES SAL.  
 
KMLB/TPBI DOPPLER RADARS SHOW DIURNAL CONVECTION QUICKLY FIZZLED OUT  
BY 800 PM, WHILE CLUSTER OF HEAVY SHOWERS/ISOLATED T-STORMS CONTINUE  
UPSTREAM WELL OFFSHORE THE TREASURE COAST. CURRENT FORECAST SHOWS A  
SMALL LATE NIGHT POP ALONG THE MARTIN COUNTY COAST AND GIVEN CURRENT  
RADAR RETURNS, WILL NEED TO KEEP THIS IN PLACE. WILL WATCH RADAR  
TRENDS FOR ANOTHER 60-90 MINUTES TO DETERMINE WHETHER THIS NEEDS TO  
BE EXPANDED NORTH SOME ALONG THE TREASURE COAST. OTHERWISE, WILL MAKE  
THE USUAL LATE EVENING TWEAKS TO SKIES/WINDS/TEMPS.  
 

 
   
AVIATION
 
VFR. ADDED VCSH TO THE VRB-SUA CORRIDOR FOR POSSIBLE  
APPROACH OF COASTAL SHOWERS 04Z-13Z.  
 

 
   
MARINE
 
CURRENT BUOY OBS SHOW LIGHT SE-S FLOW BELOW 10KT WITH  
SEAS 2FT. GIVEN 41010 IS ONLY 2.6FT, WILL BRING SEAS DOWN TO 2FT A  
LITTLE EARLIER THAN PREVIOUSLY INDICATED.  
 

 
 
UPDATE...CRISTALDI  
IMPACT WX...SEDLOCK  
RADAR...RODRIGUEZ  
 

 
   
PREV DISCUSSION
 
/ISSUED 331 PM EDT FRI AUG 17 2018/  
 
WEEKEND...BERMUDA RIDGE AXIS BISECTS THE PENINSULA YIELDING DOMINANT  
S/SE FLOW ACROSS C FL THIS WEEKEND. AN AREA OF DRY AIR BREAKS AWAY  
FROM THE CENTER OF THE HIGH, POSITIONING OVER THE CENTRAL FORECAST  
AREA, WITH PWATS NEAR 1". THIS WILL PROVIDE FOR ABNORMALLY LOW RAIN  
CHANCES ON SATURDAY NORTH OF ORLANDO/CAPE CANAVERAL, THUS KEEPING  
LESS THAN 20% POPS OVER THE INTERIOR. A SURGE OF MOISTURE ADVANCES  
NORTH FROM THE BAHAMAS INTO SOUTH FL AND ACROSS THE TREASURE  
COAST/LAKE OKEECHOBEE, LEADING TO POPS SATURDAY AT 30-40 PERCENT.  
MOISTURE RETURNS TO NORMAL SUNDAY WITH RIDGE AXIS SLIPPING  
SOUTHWARD AND PWATS INCREASING TO NEAR 2". RAIN CHANCES 40-50%  
AREAWIDE EXCEPT NORTH OF I-4 WHERE LINGERING DRY AIR WILL KEEP  
CHANCES NEAR 30 PERCENT.  
 
HIGH TEMPS WILL CLIMB TO THE MID 90S FOR RAIN-FREE AREAS SAT, LOW  
90S ALONG THE COAST AND NEAR LAKE OKEECHOBEE WITH SIMILAR HIGHS IN  
THE LOW TO MID 90S SUNDAY.  
 
MON-SAT...SUMMERTIME CYCLE OF DIURNAL CONVECTION CONTINUES THROUGH  
THIS WEEK AS THE EAST AND WEST COAST SEA BREEZES PUSH OVER THE  
INTERIOR. RIDGE AXIS WILL SLOWLY LIFT NORTHWARD KEEPING DOMINATE SE  
FLOW OVER THE AREA. POPS 30-50 PERCENT EACH DAY THROUGH NEXT  
WEEKEND WITH SEASONAL HIGHS IN THE LOW TO MID 90S.  
 

 
   
AVIATION
 
 
MOSTLY VFR THROUGH TONIGHT. THERE'S A SMALL CHANCE FOR STORMS UNTIL  
ABOUT SUNSET AT THE INTERIOR TERMINALS. ALSO, THERE'S A SLIGHT  
CHANCE OF SHOWERS AFTER MIDNIGHT AT KSUA. ON SAT, MOISTURE WILL  
CONTINUE TO INCREASE FROM THE SOUTH AND BRING A CHANCE OF SHOWERS OR  
STORMS FROM ABOUT KSUA-KMLB. DRIER AIR WILL LIMIT THE CHANCE FOR  
AFTERNOON STORMS AT NORTH AND INTERIOR TERMINALS.  
 

 
   
MARINE
 
 
TONIGHT...THE SURFACE RIDGE AXIS WILL SLOWLY SETTLE BACK TOWARDS  
CENTRAL FLORIDA. WINDS WILL RESPOND ACROSS THE NORTH BY VEERING TO  
THE SOUTH SOUTHWEST BEFORE DAYBREAK AND STAYING GENERALLY 10  
KNOTS OR LESS. WINDS IN THE SOUTH WILL CONTINUE SOUTHEAST NEAR 10  
KNOTS. SEAS 2 FEET EXCEPT UP TO 3 FEET WELL OFFSHORE. CONDITIONS  
WILL BE DRY EXCEPT FOR A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS OVER THE  
SOUTHERN WATERS AFTER MIDNIGHT.  
 
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...  
 
WEEKEND...GOOD BOATING CONDITIONS THIS WEEKEND WITH RIDGE AXIS  
ACROSS THE CENTRAL PENINSULA. DOMINANT S/SE FLOW 5-10 KTS WITH SEAS  
2 FEET. A POCKET OF DRY AIR WILL MOVE INTO NORTHERN MARINE ZONES,  
KEEPING RAIN CHANCES NEGLIGIBLE SATURDAY; RETURNING TO NEAR 30  
PERCENT SUNDAY WITH OFFSHORE MOVING STORMS.  
 
MON-SAT...INCREASING RAIN CHANCES OVER THE WATERS AS THE WEEK  
PROGRESSES; CONTINUING SE FLOW AT 10-15 KTS WITH SEAS 1-2 FEET  
BUILDING TO NEAR 3 FEET IN THE NORTHERN GULF STREAM WATERS.  
 

 
   
HYDROLOGY
 
 
NO SITES ALONG THE SAINT JOHNS RIVER ARE AT OR ABOVE FLOOD STAGE.  
HOWEVER, ASTOR, SANFORD AND LAKE HARNEY FORECAST POINTS REMAIN IN  
ACTION STAGE. REFER TO THE LATEST HYDROLOGIC STATEMENTS (RVSMLB) FOR  
THE LATEST STAGE AND FORECAST INFORMATION.  
 

 
   
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
 
 
DAB 74 92 75 91 / 10 10 10 30  
MCO 75 95 76 93 / 10 20 10 40  
MLB 78 91 77 90 / 0 20 20 40  
VRB 75 90 75 90 / 0 30 20 50  
LEE 76 95 77 94 / 20 20 10 40  
SFB 75 95 76 93 / 10 20 10 40  
ORL 75 95 76 93 / 10 20 10 40  
FPR 75 90 75 89 / 10 30 20 50  
 

 
   
MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
 
 
FL...NONE.  
AM...NONE.  

 
 

 
 
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