210
FXUS62 KMLB 091423
AFDMLB
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MELBOURNE FL
923 AM EST TUE FEB 9 2010
DISCUSSION
CURRENT-TONIGHT...A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL MOVE RAPIDLY ACROSS THE
GULF COAST STATES/SOUTHEAST U.S. TODAY AND EVENTUALLY OFF THE
CAROLINA COAST TONIGHT. A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE OVER THE AREA THIS
EVENING & OVERNIGHT.
SLIGHT DESTABILIZATION OF THE ATMOSPHERE...PER MORNING KXMR
SOUNDING...AND WITH THE SPC PUTTING US IN A GENERAL THUNDERSTORM
CHANCE CATEGORY...HAVE DECIDED TO ADD A SLIGHT CHANCE MENTION FOR
THUNDER THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS BOTH LAND/ATLANTIC FORECAST AREAS. THE
MAIN THREAT FROM ANY CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY THIS AFTERNOON WILL BE IN
THE FORM OF GUSTY WINDS OR AN ISOLATED LIGHTNING STRIKE. FROM
SATELLITE IT APPEARS MOST OF AREA WILL BECOME CONSIDERABLY TO MOSTLY
CLOUDY BY THIS AFTERNOON WITH THE TREASURE COAST SEEING SOME MORNING
SUNSHINE. WILL MAKE MINOR COSMETIC CHANGES TO CURRENT SHORT TERM
GRIDS/ZONES.
PRECIP WL END FROM N TO S TONIGHT AND MENTIONABLE POPS AFT 00Z
REMAIN CONFINED LARGELY TO THE ATLC WATERS AND EXTREME SOUTH.
FRONTAL PSG OVERNIGHT WILL BRING STRONG CAA TOWARD DAYBREAK AND WIND
CHILL READINGS WILL DROP INTO THE MID 30S BY DAYBREAK ESP NORTH OF
ORLANDO. WILL TAKE ANOTHER LOOK AT UPCOMING 12Z MODEL DATA AND MAKE
DECISION ON WHETHER A WIND CHILL ADVISORY IS WARRANTED FOR A PORTION
OF OUR NORTHERN COVERAGE WARNING AREA LATE OVERNIGHT INTO EARLY
THURSDAY MORNING.
AVIATION
INCREASING SOUTHERLY WINDS WITH BKN FL040 AFTER 14Z.
TEMPO MVFR DUE TO SHRA FM AROUND 17Z TIL 22Z. WITH CLEARING OF PCPN
AND CIGS FROM N-S EARLY THIS EVENING. OCNL GUSTY NW WINDS AFT
MIDNIGHT BEHIND FRONTAL PASSAGE.
MARINE...TODAY-TONIGHT
SOUTH WINDS ALREADY GUSTING PAST 20 KTS AT
BUOY 41009 THIS MORNING AS PGRAD TIGHTENS AHEAD OF APPROACHING LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM. SCA BEGINS AT 10AM OVER OUTER LEGS AND NEAR SHORE
WATERS THIS AFTN. SEAS WILL BE SLOWER TO BUILD BUT WILL INCREASE TO
7-8 FT WELL OFFSHORE THIS EVENING. WILL HAVE CAUTIONARY STATEMENTS
NEAR SHORE FOR WINDS AHEAD OF ADVISORY COMING INTO EFFECT THERE.
FRONTAL PASSAGE THIS EVENING & OVERNIGHT WILL VEER WINDS TO W-NW
INCR WINDS TO 25 KTS SUSTAINED AWAY FROM THE COAST WITH OCNL GUSTS
TO GALE FORCE. WILL MONITOR TRENDS AND 12Z AFTN MODEL DATA IN THE
EVENT AN UPGRADE TO A GALE WARNING IS WARRANTED OFFSHORE.
MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
FL...FIRE WEATHER WATCH WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON FOR COASTAL VOLUSIA-
INDIAN RIVER-INLAND VOLUSIA-MARTIN-NORTHERN BREVARD-
NORTHERN LAKE-OKEECHOBEE-ORANGE-OSCEOLA-SEMINOLE-SOUTHERN
BREVARD-SOUTHERN LAKE-ST. LUCIE.
AM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 4 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 6 PM EST
WEDNESDAY FOR COASTAL WATERS FROM FLAGLER BEACH TO VOLUSIA
BREVARD COUNTY LINE OUT 20 NM-COASTAL WATERS FROM SEBASTIAN
INLET TO JUPITER INLET OUT 20 NM-COASTAL WATERS FROM
VOLUSIA BREVARD COUNTY LINE TO SEBASTIAN INLET OUT 20 NM.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 10 AM THIS MORNING TO 4 AM EST
THURSDAY FOR WATERS FROM FLAGLER BEACH TO VOLUSIA BREVARD
COUNTY LINE 20 TO 60 NM OFFSHORE-WATERS FROM SEBASTIAN
INLET TO JUPITER INLET 20 TO 60 NM OFFSHORE-WATERS FROM
VOLUSIA BREVARD COUNTY LINE TO SEBASTIAN INLET 20 TO 60 NM
OFFSHORE.
SEDLOCK/KELLY
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