005
FXUS62 KMLB 270203
AFDMLB
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MELBOURNE FL
1003 PM EDT FRI APR 26 2024
..NEW UPDATE, AVIATION, MARINE, PREVIOUS DISCUSSION
UPDATE
ISSUED AT 1003 PM EDT FRI APR 26 2024
HIGH PRESSURE (1033MB) CONTINUES TO BUILD ACROSS THE EASTERN
SEABOARD AND OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC WITH ONSHORE FLOW ACROSS
EAST CENTRAL FLORIDA. CURRENT SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS FEW TO
SCATTERED LOW AND HIGH CLOUDS, MAINLY ACROSS VOLUSIA AND NORTHERN
BREVARD COUNTIES WITH MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES ELSEWHERE. THE DRY
WEATHER WILL CONTINUE INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS WITH THE EXCEPTION
OF ISOLATED LIGHT SHOWERS OFFSHORE, AS WELL AS NON-MENTIONABLE
POPS AT 10-14% ALONG THE VOLUSIA AND NORTHERN BREVARD COUNTY COAST
INTO THE EARLY MORNING HOURS SATURDAY. THE SEASONABLE
TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS ON TRACK TO REACH
THE LOW 60S TO NEAR 70 DEGREES UNDER PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES. EAST
WINDS AT 5-10 MPH ARE EXPECTED INLAND WITH SPEEDS AT 10-15 MPH
AND GUSTS UP TO 20-25MPH, MAINLY ALONG THE BREVARD COUNTY COAST
AND AREAS SOUTH.
AVIATION
(00Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1003 PM EDT FRI APR 26 2024
VFR CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST WITH HIGH PRESSURE IN PLACE OVER THE
REGION. EAST WINDS AT 5-10MPH ARE FORECAST AT KLEE, KISM, KMCO,
KSFB, KDAB OVERNIGHT WITH BREEZY EAST WINDS AT 10-12KTS GUSTING UP
TO 18-20KTS AT KMLB, KVRB, KFPR, AND KSUA, BEFORE INCREASING AT
ALL TAF SITES INTO THE MID MORNING HOURS WITH GUSTS TO 22-26KTS.
MARINE
ISSUED AT 1003 PM EDT FRI APR 26 2024
CURRENTLY-TONIGHT... BOATING CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST TO BECOME
POOR INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS WITH EAST WINDS INCREASING TO
15-20KTS ACROSS THE LOCAL ATLANTIC WATERS. SEAS ARE FORECAST TO
INCREASE UP TO 3-5FT INTO EARLY SATURDAY MORNING. ISOLATED SHOWERS
ARE FORECAST OVER THE VOLUSIA AND BREVARD COUNTY WATERS INTO
SATURDAY MORNING.
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 306 PM EDT FRI APR 26 2024
CURRENT-SATURDAY... UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE EASTERN CONUS WILL
REMAIN OVER THE REGION, WHILE SLOWLY SHIFTING EASTWARD TOWARDS THE
SEABOARD THROUGH THE PERIOD. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS THE
EASTERN SEABOARD, EXTENDING ACROSS THE FLORIDA PENINSULA INTO THE
GOMEX, WILL PERSIST. LOCALLY, THE PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL TIGHTEN,
ALLOWING FOR BREEZY AND GUSTY ONSHORE FLOW OF 10-15 MPH WITH GUSTS
UP TO 20-25 MPH POSSIBLE TO CONTINUE THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON AND ONCE
AGAIN ON SATURDAY. WINDS WILL DECREASE TO 5- 10 MPH TONIGHT, WITH
GUSTS AROUND 15 MPH POSSIBLE ALONG THE COAST. LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
WILL INCREASE THROUGH THE REST OF TODAY AND INTO SATURDAY, WITH PW
VALUES TODAY AROUND 1.2" INCREASING TO AROUND 1.4" SATURDAY. MOSTLY
SUNNY SKIES TODAY WILL BECOME PARTLY CLOUDY ON SATURDAY AS THE
MOISTURE INCREASES. WHILE MOST AREAS WILL REMAIN DRY THROUGH
SATURDAY, GUIDANCE IS INDICATING ISOLATED LIGHT SHOWERS AND
SPRINKLES WILL CONTINUE TO BE POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON AND INTO
SATURDAY ACROSS THE ATLANTIC WATERS. SOME OF THIS ACTIVITY COULD
MAKE IT TO THE COAST, MAINLY FROM CAPE CANAVERAL NORTHWARD. THUS,
HAVE INCLUDED MENTION OF ISOLATED VERY LIGHT SHOWERS (POP 10-14
PERCENT) POSSIBLE ACROSS THE VOLUSIA AND NORTHERN BREVARD COASTS
THROUGH SATURDAY. SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE, WITH
AFTERNOON HIGHS TODAY AND SATURDAY IN THE LOW TO MID 80S. OVERNIGHT
LOWS WILL BE IN THE LOW TO MID 60S.
SUNDAY... A 1025 HPA HIGH PRESSURE CENTER JUST OFF OF THE CAROLINAS
WILL CONTINUE TO DELIVER EAST/ONSHORE BREEZES TO THE STATE. ALOFT,
RIDGING WILL CONTINUE TO RESIDE ACROSS THE EASTERN U.S. THIS WILL
KEEP TRANQUIL CONDITIONS PREVALENT. JUST ENOUGH MOISTURE COULD
TRAVERSE FROM THE ATLANTIC TO PRODUCE A QUICK SHOWER OR SPRINKLE
ALONG THE COAST. OTHERWISE, IT WILL BE PARTLY SUNNY, BREEZY, AND
MILD WITH UPPER 70S TO MID 80S (COOLEST ALONG THE COAST), FALLING
TO THE 60S IN MOST AREAS SUNDAY NIGHT.
MONDAY-FRIDAY (PREVIOUS DISCUSSION)...THE UPPER RIDGING BEGINS TO
BREAK DOWN AND SHIFT OFF OF THE ATLC SEABOARD INTO THE WESTERN ATLC.
INITIAL SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE OFF OF THE CAROLINAS WILL ALSO
CONTINUE TO WEAKEN THROUGH MID-WEEK, WHILE GRADUALLY SHIFTING
SOUTHWARD, THEN FURTHER SEAWARD BY THE END OF THE WORK-WEEK. THE
ONSHORE SURFACE FLOW STAYS MOSTLY INTACT, WITH WINDS GRADUALLY
VEERING A BIT MORE SE/S, THOUGH THE PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL SLOWLY
WEAKEN DURING THIS TIME. CONTINUE TO KEEP CONDITIONS OVER LAND DRY.
AGAIN, OVERALL (LOW) COVERAGE POTENTIAL AT THE MOMENT, KEEPING
MENTION OF A SPRINKLE/BRIEF LIGHT SHOWER ALONG THE COAST OUT OF THE
GRIDS/ZONES. A WARMING TREND WILL ENSUE, WITH L80S AT THE IMMEDIATE
COAST, PERHAPS SOME M80S HERE BY THU/FRI, AND M-U80S INTO THE
INTERIOR - PERHAPS SOME READINGS NEAR 90F OR JUST ABOVE INTO THE
INTERIOR WED-FRI. OVERNIGHT LOWS REMAIN CONSISTENT AND IN THE 60S
AREAWIDE.
MARINE
ISSUED AT 306 PM EDT FRI APR 26 2024
CURRENT-TONIGHT... DETEORIATING BOATING CONDITIONS INTO TONIGHT.
EASTERLY WINDS OF 10-15 KT THIS AFTERNOON, WITH OCCASIONAL GUSTS TO
20-25 KT POSSIBLE WILL INCREASE INTO TONIGHT, BECOMING 15-20 KT
OVERNIGHT BEFORE BECOMING 20-25 KT WITH HIGHER GUSTS SATURDAY. SEAS
2-3FT TODAY WILL INCREASE TO 4-5FT IN THE NEARSHORE WATERS AND 5-6FT
IN THE OFFSHORE WATERS TONIGHT, AND 5-7FT ON SATURDAY. SMALL CRAFT
WILL NEED TO EXERCISE CAUTION ACROSS ALL THE WATERS TONIGHT EXCEPT
NEARSHORE VOLUSIA. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IS NOW IN EFFECT FOR ALL THE
OFFSHORE WATERS STARTING 14Z SATURDAY, EXPANDING TO ALL THE WATERS
AT 20 Z. MOSTLY DRY CONDITIONS THROUGH THE PERIOD, HOWEVER LOCAL
GUIDANCE IS INDICATING ISOLATED LIGHT SHOWERS/SPRINKLES WILL BE
POSSIBLE THROUGH SATURDAY, MAINLY FROM CAPE CANAVERAL NORTHWARD AS
THE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE INCREASES OVER THE AREA.
SUNDAY-TUESDAY (PREVIOUS DISCUSSION, MODIFIED)...STILL LOOKING AT
LESS-THAN-FAVORABLE BOATING CONDITIONS GOING LATE INTO THE WEEKEND.
HIGH PRESSURE ALONG THE EASTERN SEABOARD GRADUALLY WEAKENS DURING
THIS TIME, WHILE SLIDING SOUTHWARD TO BECOME CENTERED OFF OF THE
CAROLINAS. ERLY WINDS SLIGHTLY DECREASE TO 15-20 KTS ON SUN-SUN
NIGHT, AND MAINLY 10-16 KTS MON-TUE WHILE VEERING MORE SERLY EARLY
IN THE WEEK. 5-7 FT SEAS EARLY SUNDAY WILL GRADUALLY / SLOWLY
SUBSIDE SUN AFTERNOON-TUE. WHILE CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN MOSTLY DRY,
CANNOT RULE OUT ISOLD SPRINKLE/SHOWER ACTIVITY THROUGHOUT THIS
PERIOD.
FIRE WEATHER
ISSUED AT 306 PM EDT FRI APR 26 2024
SATURDAY-TUESDAY (PREVIOUS DISCUSSION MODIFIED)...STILL LOOKING
AT LESS- THAN-FAVORABLE BOATING CONDITIONS GOING LATE INTO THE
WEEKEND. HIGH PRESSURE ALONG THE EASTERN SEABOARD GRADUALLY
WEAKENS DURING THIS TIME, WHILE SLIDING SOUTHWARD TO BECOME
CENTERED OFF OF THE CAROLINAS. ERLY WINDS SLIGHTLY DECREASE TO
15-20 KTS ON SUN-SUN NIGHT, AND MAINLY 10-16 KTS MON-TUE WHILE
VEERING MORE SERLY EARLY IN THE WEEK. 5-7 FT SEAS EARLY SUNDAY
WILL GRADUALLY / SLOWLY SUBSIDE SUN AFTERNOON-TUE. WHILE
CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN MOSTLY DRY, CANNOT RULE OUT ISOLD
SPRINKLE/SHOWER ACTIVITY THROUGHOUT THIS PERIOD.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
DAB 66 79 66 79 / 10 10 0 0
MCO 65 82 67 82 / 0 10 0 0
MLB 69 80 67 79 / 10 10 0 0
VRB 67 81 65 81 / 0 10 0 0
LEE 66 82 65 82 / 0 10 0 0
SFB 65 81 65 81 / 10 10 0 0
ORL 66 82 67 82 / 0 10 0 0
FPR 66 81 65 80 / 0 10 0 10
MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
FL...NONE.
AM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 4 PM SATURDAY TO 4 AM EDT SUNDAY FOR
AMZ550-552-555.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 10 AM SATURDAY TO 4 AM EDT SUNDAY FOR
AMZ570-572-575.
UPDATE...FEHLING
LONG TERM...HALEY
AVIATION...FEHLING
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