798
FXUS62 KMLB 221857
AFDMLB
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MELBOURNE FL
157 PM EST SUN DEC 22 2024
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
ISSUED AT 406 AM EST SUN DEC 22 2024
- GRADUAL WARMING THROUGH THE WEEK WITH ISOLATED TO SCATTERED
ONSHORE MOVING SHOWERS.
- THERE IS A LOW BUT NON-ZERO CHANCE FOR LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL LATE
THIS AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT.
- ATLANTIC BOATING CONDITIONS REMAIN MARGINAL AT BEST NEAR SHORE,
BECOMING POOR TO HAZARDOUS OFF SHORE THROUGH MIDWEEK.
UPDATE
ISSUED AT 1000 AM EST SUN DEC 22 2024
NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES WERE MADE IN THIS UPDATE, AS TEMPERATURES
ARE STEADILY CLIMBING INTO THE 50S AND 60S THIS MORNING. THE EARLY
SIGNS OF A COASTAL TROUGH ARE APPEARING ON RAP ANALYSIS, THOUGH
FURTHER SATURATION IS NEEDED OVER THE LOCAL WATERS FOR COVERAGE OF
SHOWERS TO INCREASE. FOR NOW, ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE JUST OFFSHORE
OF CAPE CANAVERAL, DRIFTING SOUTHWESTWARD. IT WILL TAKE SOME TIME
INTO THE AFTERNOON FOR THIS ACTIVITY TO SPREAD TOWARD THE COAST.
FOR MANY LOCATIONS, TODAY WILL STAY DRY AS HIGHS APPROACH THE
UPPER 60S TO LOW 70S. IT WILL BE BREEZY AT TIMES, ESPECIALLY ALONG
THE COAST, WITH NORTH-NORTHEAST WINDS OCCASIONALLY GUSTING UP TO
20-25 MPH.
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 406 AM EST SUN DEC 22 2024
THIS MORNING...NORTHWESTERLY FLOW EARLY THIS MORNING CONTINUES
ALL THE WAY TO THE COAST. HI-RES GUIDANCE INDICATES WINDS ALONG
THE BARRIER ISLANDS COULD TURN ONSHORE NEAR SUNRISE, PROVIDING A
SUBTLE EARLY MORNING WARM-UP, BUT FOR EVERYONE ELSE ANOTHER CHILLY
START TO THE DAY IS IN STORE. TEMPERATURES AT 4 AM ARE RINGING IN
FROM THE L40S NORTH OF I-4, TO THE M-U40S ACROSS THE REST OF THE
INTERIOR, AND IN THE M40-L50S ALONG THE COAST. SHOULD SEE
TEMPERATURES DROP A COUPLE MORE DEGREES BEFORE SUNRISE, WITH THE
5-10 MPH BREEZE PUSHING WIND CHILLS INTO THE U30S-L40S ACROSS MOST
OF THE AREA, SAVE FOR THE SOUTHERN COAST IN THE L40S-50. A FEW
SHOWERS CONTINUE ACROSS THE ATLANTIC WATERS, BUT WILL STAY
OFFSHORE FOR NOW.
TODAY-TONIGHT...HIGH PRESSURE DOMINATING THE EASTERN HALF OF THE
CONUS SHIFTS EAST, WITH THE CENTER REACHING NEAR THE NEW ENGLAND
SEABOARD BY MONDAY MORNING. THE SOUTHERN FLANK OF THE HIGH BECOMES
DRAPED ACROSS FLORIDA, WHILE AN INVERTED SURFACE TROUGH DEVELOPS
OVER THE NEARBY ATLANTIC WATERS. STILL PRETTY GOOD CONSENSUS THIS
TROUGH WILL TRACK TOWARDS THE FLORIDA EAST COAST, BUT WHERE AND
HOW MUCH RAIN THE TROUGH WILL BRING TO THE COAST IS A
DISAPPOINTING QUESTION MARK FOR A 12-HOUR FORECAST. RAINFALL
AMOUNTS IN THE CAMS ARE SPREAD FAIRLY WIDE, RANGING FROM ONLY
0.50" BULLS-EYES IN THE VERY PESSIMISTIC 00Z HRRR, TO 1.0-2.0"
ACROSS MUCH OF THE SPACE COAST AND INTO PARTS OF THE TREASURE AND
VOLUSIA COASTS, WITH LOCALLY HIGH AMOUNTS UP TO 4" POSSIBLE IN THE
VERY EXCITED NAM 3KM. THE ARW AND FV3 ARE FAIRLY CLOSE TO EACH
OTHER ABOUT MIDWAY BETWEEN THE OTHER MODELS, SUPPORTING A
CONSENSUS FORECAST. AS SUCH, THE OFFICIAL FORECAST FOLLOWS THE
HREF MEAN, CALLING FOR RAINFALL AMOUNTS GENERALLY LESS THAN 0.50",
HOWEVER, WPC HAS INDICATED THERE IS A LESS THAN 5 PCT BUT NON-
ZERO CHANCE FOR EXCESSIVE RAINFALL MAINLY ALONG THE SPACE COAST
BASED ON THE HIGHER-END GUIDANCE. THE LIMITING FACTOR IS PWATS,
WHICH ARE FORECAST TO REMAIN LESS THAN AN INCH THROUGH MOST OF THE
DAY, ONLY INCREASING TO MORE THAN 1" LATE TONIGHT, AND THE GFS
AND ECM CAN'T EVEN AGREE WHERE THOSE HIGHER VALUES WILL BE. THE
00Z GFS HAS DECIDED TO TAKE THE TROUGH AND HIGHER MOISTURE FURTHER
NORTH, CLOSER TO JACKSONVILLE, WHILE THE ECM STAYS CLOSER TO OUR
AREA. ULTIMATELY LOOKS LIKE MOST OF THE RAIN THAT MAKES IT TO
SHORE DURING THE DAY SHOULD BE FAIRLY LIGHT, WITH THE BEST CHANCES
FOR HEAVIER SHOWERS IN THE EVENING AND OVERNIGHT PERIODS.
AS FOR THE REST OF THE FORECAST, THE TROUGH VEERS NORTH-
NORTHWESTERLY WINDS AT 5-10 MPH IN THE MORNING TO NORTH-
NORTHEASTERLY (ONSHORE) AT AROUND 10 MPH INLAND AND 10-15 MPH WITH
GUSTS TO 20 MPH ALONG THE COAST BY THE LATE AFTERNOON. THE
VOLUSIA AND NORTHERN SPACE COASTS COULD GET BRIEFLY BREEZY AND
GUSTY WITH WINDS OVER 15 MPH AND GUSTS UP TO 25 MPH. AFTERNOON
HIGHS REMAIN A BIT ON THE COOLER SIDE IN THE M60S-L70S.
MONDAY-TUESDAY...THE LARGE PICTURE REMAINS RELATIVELY UNCHANGED,
WITH THE SOUTHERN FLANK OF HIGH PRESSURE REMAINING DRAPED ACROSS
FLORIDA WHILE BEING ELONGATED AND CONTORTED BY MULTIPLE LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEMS TO THE NORTH. BUT CLOSER TO OUR NEIGHBORHOOD,
THERE'S BEEN A FAIRLY BIG SHIFT IN GUIDANCE FROM THIS TIME
YESTERDAY. THE GFS AND ECM ARE NOW BOTH DEVELOPING THE TROUGH INTO
A LOW OFF THE FL-GA-SC COASTS, LIFTING AWAY MUCH OF THE MOISTURE
THAT HAD BEEN PREVIOUSLY FORECAST TO REMAIN ANCHORED ALONG THE
FLORIDA EAST COAST THROUGH MID-WEEK. SOME DISAGREEMENT ON TIMING
AS THE MORE AGGRESSIVE GFS DEVELOPS A CLOSED LOW BY MONDAY, WHILE
THE SLOWER ECM FOLLOWS ON TUESDAY. OUR FORECAST RAIN CHANCES HAVE
COME DOWN AS A RESULT, ESPECIALLY MONDAY'S, BUT MODEST ONSHORE
FLOW AND A SUFFICIENTLY DEEP MARINE LAYER SHOULD STILL SUPPORT
SHALLOW ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS (POPS 20-30 PCT). THE 06Z
HRRR HAS FINALLY COME IN, KEEPING THE TAIL OF THE TROUGH AND
ASSOCIATED MOISTURE AXIS CLOSER TO OUR COAST, WHICH IS IN LINE
WITH THE EC-AIFS/ECM AND MAKING THE GFS MORE OF AN OUTLIER. THUS,
WOULDN'T BE SURPRISED IF FORECAST RAIN CHANCES FOR MONDAY CAME
BACK UP A BIT IN UPCOMING FORECAST PACKAGES.
AS FOR THE REST OF THE FORECAST, WINDS BECOME A BIT SHIFTY MONDAY
AND TUESDAY DEPENDING WHERE THE TROUGH IS, RANGING FROM NORTHERLY
TO EASTERLY AT 10 MPH OR LESS. MONDAY MORNING LOWS AROUND NORMAL
IN THE 50S, MAYBE SLIGHTLY ABOVE, TICKING UP TO ABOVE NORMAL IN
THE M50S-M60S TUESDAY MORNING. AFTERNOON HIGHS NEAR NORMAL IN THE
L-M70S, BOTH MONDAY AND TUESDAY.
CHRISTMAS DAY-SATURDAY...LATEST MODEL GUIDANCE IS OUT TO LUNCH BY
THIS POINT. OVERALL WE REMAIN UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF HIGH PRESSURE
OVER THE EASTERN US AND RIDGING ALOFT, BUT THE SOUTHEAST US JUST
BECOMES A MESS OF WEAKLY FORCED SURFACE WEATHER SYSTEMS. EC-AIFS
AND ENSEMBLES CALL FOR AN OVERALL GRADUAL TRANSPORT OF MOIST
TROPICAL AIR THROUGH THE PERIOD, CONTINUING THE WARMING TREND AND
SUPPORTING BROAD 20-30 PCT RAIN CHANCES DESPITE RIDGING ALOFT
KEEPING THE ENVIRONMENT WELL CAPPED. THUNDER HAS BEEN ALL BUT
REMOVED FROM THE FORECAST AT THIS POINT, WITH JUST SOME LOW
CHANCES OVER THE ATLANTIC WATERS, PUTTING ANY WISHES FOR A
CHRISTMAS DAY LIGHTNING STORM ON THE ROPES.
MARINE
ISSUED AT 406 AM EST SUN DEC 22 2024
BOATING CONDITIONS REMAIN UNFAVORABLE TO HAZARDOUS THROUGH LATE
TUESDAY, WITH SOME IMPROVEMENT POSSIBLE BY MID-WEEK. HIGH PRESSURE
OVER THE EASTERN US WILL SHIFT OUT TO SEA THROUGH THE FIRST HALF
OF THE WEEK, WITH THE SOUTHERN FLANK DRAPED ACROSS FLORIDA AND THE
LOCAL ATLANTIC WATERS. A SURFACE TROUGH WILL MOVE INTO THE LOCAL
WATERS, RESULTING IN GENERALLY NORTHEASTERLY WINDS 10-15 KTS TODAY
AS THE TROUGH APPROACHES, THOUGH WINDS UP TO 20 KTS NORTH OF THE
CAPE WILL BE POSSIBLE IN THE LATE AFTERNOON AND EVENING. WINDS
THEN BECOME SHIFTY AT 5-15 KNOTS, OCCASIONALLY OVER 15 KTS, MONDAY
AND POSSIBLY INTO TUESDAY AS THE TROUGH MEANDERS EAST AND WEST
WHILE SLOWLY LIFTING NORTH. EASTERLY FLOW AT 10-15 KTS, ONCE AGAIN
OCCASIONALLY OVER 15 KTS, BECOMES MORE ESTABLISHED WEDNESDAY
ONWARD AS THE TROUGH DEPARTS. THROUGH WEDNESDAY NEARSHORE SEAS
REMAIN GENERALLY 3-5 FT, OCCASIONALLY UP TO 6FT BEYOND 10 NM,
WHILE SEAS IN THE GULF STREAM 4-6 FT PICK UP TO 7 FT THIS EVENING
AND POSSIBLY INTO TUESDAY. SEAS FINALLY BEGIN TO SETTLE FOR A
COUPLE DAYS WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY, FROM 3-5 FT TO 2-5 FT.
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD,
WITH THE HIGHEST CHANCES GENERALLY TODAY AND MONDAY. ISOLATED
LIGHTNING STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE TUESDAY ONWARD.
AVIATION
(18Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 151 PM EST SUN DEC 22 2024
VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. NORTHEAST WINDS AROUND 10
KT ACROSS THE INTERIOR, AND 10-15 KT WITH GUSTS OF 20-25 KT ALONG
THE COAST THIS AFTERNOON. WINDS WILL DECREASE OVERNIGHT TO 5-10
KT. ISOLATED SHOWERS JUST OFF THE COAST WILL BEGIN TO MOVE ONSHORE
LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND INTO THE EVENING, WITH SOME ACTIVITY
MAKING IT AS FAR INLAND AS MCO/ISM IN THE EVENING. SHOWERS WILL
BECOMING CONFINED TO THE COAST AND JUST OFFSHORE TONIGHT AND INTO
MONDAY, WITH THE GREATEST POTENTIAL FOR HEAVIER SHOWERS OCCURRING
FROM DAB-MLB INTO MID-MORNING. HAVE INCLUDED A TEMPO FOR -SHRA
FROM 11-14Z FOR THOSE SITES. COASTAL TERMINALS WILL HAVE THE WIND
VEER MORE EASTERLY MID TO LATE MORNING WITH SPEEDS AROUND 10 KT.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
DAB 55 71 54 70 / 30 30 20 10
MCO 55 74 56 75 / 10 10 10 10
MLB 57 75 58 74 / 20 20 20 10
VRB 58 77 60 77 / 20 10 20 20
LEE 51 72 54 73 / 10 10 10 0
SFB 54 73 55 73 / 20 20 10 10
ORL 55 74 56 74 / 10 10 10 10
FPR 57 76 58 76 / 20 10 20 20
MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
FL...NONE.
AM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR AMZ550.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 AM EST MONDAY FOR AMZ570.
DISCUSSION...WATSON
AVIATION...SCHAPER
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