712
FXUS62 KMLB 090856
AFDMLB
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MELBOURNE FL
456 AM EDT WED JUL 9 2008
DISCUSSION
TODAY
MID LEVEL TROUGHINESS PERSISTS ALONG THE SE U.S. COAST
WITH VORT LOBE THAT MOVED UP THE FL PENINSULA YESTERDAY...NOW
PUSHING OFF THE VOLUSIA COAST. EXPECT WEAK H5 VORT AXIS TO REMAIN
ACROSS NORTHERN SECTIONS TODAY WHICH WILL KEEP TEMPS COOL ALOFT
(-8C). BUT MUCH DRIER AIR IS ADVECTING NW ACROSS THE AREA IN THE
MID LEVELS WHICH WILL NOTICEABLY LOWER RAIN/STORM CHANCES TODAY.
HAVE DRAWN ONLY 20% POPS AND FOCUSED THEM ON THE INTERIOR.
PROSPECT FOR THUNDER LOOKS VERY LOW ACROSS SOUTHERN SECTIONS...BUT
A LATE SEA BREEZE COLLISION IS EXPECTED ACROSS NW SECTIONS TOWARD
EVENING. IF DEEP CONVECTION (THUNDER) OCCURS...THERE IS A HIGH
POTENTIAL FOR STRONG DOWNBURST WINDS...BUT CONFIDENCE IS LOW
GIVEN THE PREPONDERANCE OF DRY AIR THAT IS FCST TO BE IN PLACE AT
THAT TIME. HAVE INCLUDED A SMALL EVENING POP FOR LAKE COUNTY.
EXPECT THE CANOPY OF MID LEVEL ALTOCU ACROSS NORTH HALF TO THIN
LATER THIS MORNING ALLOWING MAX TEMPS TO REACH THE MID 90S.
ONSHORE FLOW NEAR THE COAST WILL KEEP MAX TEMPS SEVERAL DEGREES
LOWER.
THU-FRI (DAY2 & DAY3)
ISOLD CONVECTION IS ALL THAT CAN BE
SQUEEZED FROM LOCAL ATMOSPHERE DURING THIS SOMEWHAT DRIER PERIOD OF
LOWER PWATS. SURFACE RIDGE AXIS SETTLES ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA TO
KEEP PREVAILING WIND FLOW RELATIVELY WEAK. RIDGING ALOFT WILL
FURTHER INHIBIT PROSPECTS. WEAK DIFFERENTIAL MOTION DUE TO AXIS BUT
PROPAGATION VECTOR WILL PRIMARILY DRIVE STORM MOTION ANYWAY FOR
WHATEVER MODEST CONVECTION IS ABLE TO FIRE VIA LOCAL THERMAL
CIRCULATIONS. A LITTLE WARMER GIVEN THE REDUCED PRECIPITATION
CHANCES.
SAT-TUE (DAY4-DAY7)
CONCENTRATED DEEP MOISTURE CREEPS BACK INTO
THE FORECAST AREA FROM THE NORTH TO BOOST POPS FOR THE WEEKEND AND
EARLY NEXT WEEK. THIS IS ASSOCIATED WITH AN OLD AND WEAK FRONTAL
TROUGH BEING NUDGED SOUTHWARD BY AN IMPINGING UPPER TROUGH ACROSS
THE GREAT LAKES REGION THAT EVENTUALLY RESULTS IN FAIRLY DECENT
TROUGHING UP AND DOWN THE SEABOARD BY TUESDAY (AS THE JET STREAM
DIPS). SURFACE RIDGE APPEARS TO SHUNT SOUTH OF OKEECHOBEE BY SUNDAY
SETTING UP A WESTERLY BLYR FLOW FAVORING CONVECTION BACK TOWARD THE
COAST.
AVIATION
PATCHY GROUND FOG AT MLB/VRB/FPR EARLY THIS MORNING
WILL DISSIPATE SHORTLY AFTER SUNRISE. MID LEVEL ALTOCU DECK
(~FL150) ACROSS MCO/SFB/LEE/DAB WILL THIN LATER THIS MORNING...
BUT PERHAPS AFTER IT EXPANDS A BIT MORE. ONLY VERY ISOLD
SHRA/TSRA EXPECTED MAINLY INTERIOR THIS AFTN...SO MAINLY VFR ALL
TERMINALS.
MARINE
FAVORABLE BOATING CONDITIONS TODAY. LOW LEVEL RIDGE AXIS
ACROSS N FL THIS MORNING IS PRODUCING A LIGHT ONSHORE FLOW WHICH
WILL BE ENHANCED BY THE SEA BREEZE BY AFTERNOON. WILL SEE A SMALL
WIND CHOP AROUND 2 FEET.
RIDGE AXIS SETTLES BACK SOUTHWARD ACROSS CENT FL AND ADJACENT
ATLC WATERS WED-SAT WITH THE AXIS NUDGED SOUTHWARD ON SUN. MAINLY
A SOUTH TO SOUTHEAST COMPONENT OF WIND THAT WILL REMAIN OVERALL
LIGHT...BUT A 10-12 KT SEA BREEZE WILL DEVELOP BY EACH AFTN.
NOAA WAVEWATCH CONTINUES TO SHOW A LONG PERIOD MODEST EAST SWELL
PROPAGATING INTO THE COASTAL WATERS FROM DISTANT HURRICANE
BERTHA FRI AND CONTINUING THRU THE WEEKEND. THIS WILL IMPROVE
SURFING CONDITIONS BUT WILL ALSO INCREASE THE THREAT FOR RIP
CURRENTS AND COULD MAKE NAVIGATING INLETS MORE HAZARDOUS FOR SMALL
CRAFT.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
DAB 92 73 93 73 / 10 20 20 20
MCO 93 73 94 73 / 20 10 20 10
MLB 90 74 90 73 / 10 10 20 10
VRB 90 74 91 73 / 10 10 20 10
MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
FL...NONE.
AM...NONE.
SHORT TERM...KELLY
LONG TERM....SHARP
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