950
FXUS62 KMLB 220218
AFDMLB
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MELBOURNE FL
918 PM EST TUE JAN 21 2025
..NEW UPDATE
KEY MESSAGES
ISSUED AT 915 PM EST TUE JAN 21 2025
- COLD RAIN CONTINUES TONIGHT, WITH SHOWER ACTIVITY DECREASING
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON.
- WINDY, ESPECIALLY ALONG THE COAST, WITH A PERIOD OF GALE
CONDITIONS SPREADING RAPIDLY SOUTHWARD INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING.
HIGH, POUNDING SURF AND BEACH EROSION NEAR THE TIME OF HIGH TIDE
OVERNIGHT, ESPECIALLY CAPE CANAVERAL NORTHWARD.
- EVEN COLDER LOW TEMPERATURES FORECAST LATE THIS WEEK BUT
INCREASED SUNSHINE THIS WEEKEND.
UPDATE
ISSUED AT 915 PM EST TUE JAN 21 2025
AN IMPRESSIVE PRESSURE GRADIENT (NOTED BY RAP ANALYSIS) HAS
SETTLED ACROSS MUCH OF EAST CENTRAL FLORIDA TONIGHT, WHILE
SCATTERED SHOWER ACTIVITY PERSISTS. WINDS OF 15 TO 25 MPH ARE
GUSTING AS HIGH AS 30 TO 40 MPH AT TIMES, ESPECIALLY CLOSER TO THE
COAST. THIS SURGE OF NORTHERLY WINDS WILL CONTINUE SOUTHWARD
OVERNIGHT WITH HIGHER GUSTS REACHING THE BREVARD AND TREASURE
COASTS. A WIND ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT THROUGH 9 AM FOR ALL OF
THE EAST CENTRAL FLORIDA COAST.
WITH WINDY CONDITIONS SPILLING SOUTH A FEW HOURS EARLIER THAN
PREVIOUSLY MODELED, WIND CHILL VALUES HAVE TUMBLED INTO THE 30S
FROM THE ORLANDO METRO AREA NORTHWARD. AS OF 9 PM, DELAND WAS
REPORTING A WIND CHILL OF 30 DEGREES, WITH LEESBURG AT 31 DEGREES,
AND ORLANDO AT 37 DEGREES. TEMPERATURES IN THOSE LOCATIONS ARE
STILL IN THE UPPER 30S TO MID 40S, SO A 7-10 DEGREE SPREAD IN THE
OBSERVED TEMPS AND APPARENT TEMPS IS OCCURRING. IN GENERAL, THE
TIMING OF THE COLD WEATHER ADVISORY (STARTING AT 1 AM) IS IN GOOD
SHAPE. HOWEVER, TRENDS WILL BE MONITORED OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF
HOURS TO DETERMINE IF COLDER WIND CHILLS ARE REALIZED A BIT
FASTER.
THIS FORECAST UPDATE BRINGS OVERNIGHT LOW TEMPERATURES MORE IN
LINE WITH RECENT GUIDANCE AND OBSERVED TRENDS. TEMPERATURES MAY
APPROACH THE 32 DEGREE MARK ACROSS EXTREME NORTHERN LAKE AND
VOLUSIA COUNTIES BY SUNRISE, WITH MOST OTHER LOCATIONS ACROSS
THOSE COUNTIES REACHING THE MID TO UPPER 30S. FARTHER SOUTH, FROM
ORLANDO AND INTERIOR OSCEOLA/OKEECHOBEE COUNTIES TO THE SPACE
COAST, TEMPERATURES WILL RANGE FROM THE MID/UPPER 30S TO MID 40S.
EXPECT TEMPS IN THE UPPER 40S TO MID 50S CLOSER TO THE COAST,
ESPECIALLY FROM SEBASTIAN SOUTHWARD ALONG THE TREASURE COAST.
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 400 PM EST TUE JAN 21 2025
TONIGHT...A BRIEF LULL IN SHOWERS THIS AFTERNOON WILL BE SHORT
LIVED, WITH SHORT RANGE GUIDANCE HINTING AT INCREASING COVERAGE
ONCE AGAIN OVERNIGHT. THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY IS DRAPED ACROSS SOUTH
FLORIDA THIS AFTERNOON, WITH A PLUME OF MOISTURE NORTH OF THE
BOUNDARY KEEPING CENTRAL FLORIDA UNDER CLOUDY SKIES AND SHOWERS
INTO THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD. LIGHTNING ACTIVITY IS STILL NOT
FORECAST WITH THESE SHOWERS.
A SURGE OF NORTHERLY WINDS MOVING FROM THE NORTH TOWARDS THE
SOUTH ACROSS EAST CENTRAL FLORIDA WILL LEAD TO WINDS INCREASING TO
10 TO 20 MPH, WITH GUSTS TO 30 TO 40 MPH POSSIBLE. A WIND
ADVISORY GOES INTO EFFECT AT 5 PM ALONG THE VOLUSIA AND BREVARD
COASTS, AND EXPANDS TO SOUTHERN BREVARD AND THE TREASURE COAST AT
MIDNIGHT. THESE INCREASING WINDS WILL CAUSE AN INCREASE IN SEAS AS
WELL, WITH HIGH, POUNDING SURF EXPECTED TO DEVELOP PARTICULARLY
NORTH OF THE CAPE. A HIGH SURF ADVISORY WAS ISSUED FROM 7 PM
TONIGHT TO 7 AM WEDNESDAY FOR BREAKING WAVES OF 8 TO 10 FEET FOR
THE VOLUSIA AND NORTHERN BREVARD COASTS. IT IS ALSO WORTH NOTING
THAT HIGH TIDE OCCURS AT 1:30 AM, WHICH WILL FURTHER ENHANCE THE
POTENTIAL FOR SOME BEACH AND EVEN DUNE EROSION. SOUTHWARD,
BREAKING WAVES OF 4 TO 6 FEET OVERNIGHT WILL BE POSSIBLE, THOUGH
IT WILL BE SHORT LIVED AND CONFIDENCE IN EROSION IS NOT AS HIGH.
IN ADDITION TO THE RAIN AND WIND CONCERNS, COLD TEMPERATURES ARE
FORECAST OVERNIGHT, WITH LOWS GENERALLY IN THE MID TO UPPER 30S
NEAR AND NORTH OF THE I-4 CORRIDOR, AND IN THE 40S SOUTHWARD. SOME
SPOTS ALONG THE TREASURE COAST ARE FORECAST TO FALL INTO THE LOW
50S. WIND CHILL VALUES NORTH OF THE I-4 CORRIDOR ARE FORECAST TO
FALL INTO THE MID 20S TO LOW 30S, AND AS A RESULT, A COLD WEATHER
ADVISORY HAS BEEN ISSUED FROM 1 AM TO 9 AM FOR LAKE, VOLUSIA,
SEMINOLE, AND ORANGE COUNTIES.
WEDNESDAY-THURSDAY...THE UNSETTLED WEATHER PATTERN IS FORECAST TO
PERSIST OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS AS THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY
REMAINS DRAPED ACROSS SOUTH FLORIDA. A PLUME OF MOISTURE NORTH OF
THE BOUNDARY AND DRAPED ACROSS CENTRAL FLORIDA WILL CAUSE PERSISTENT
SHOWER ACTIVITY WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY, WITH RAIN CHANCES
REMAINING BETWEEN 40 TO 70 PERCENT. CLOUD COVERAGE ALSO REMAINS
HIGH AS A RESULT OF THE MOISTURE, SO IT MAY BE A FEW DAYS UNTIL
THE SUNSHINE STATE ACTUALLY SEES SOME SUNSHINE. LIGHTNING ACTIVITY
IS NOT EXPECTED WITH THESE SHOWERS. MODEL GUIDANCE IS HINTING AT
SOME DIMINISHING RAIN CHANCES WEDNESDAY NIGHT, BUT KEPT A 20 TO 30
PERCENT CHANCE IN ACROSS THE AREA FOR NOW. ANOTHER WEAK WAVE OF
LOW PRESSURE IS FORECAST TO RIDE ALONG THE BOUNDARY THURSDAY,
EVENTUALLY DRAGGING THE FRONT AWAY FROM THE AREA THURSDAY NIGHT
INTO EARLY FRIDAY. RAIN CHANCES DIMINISH THURSDAY NIGHT ACROSS THE
PENINSULA AS AN AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE BEGINS TO SLOWLY BUILD IN
ACROSS THE PENINSULA, WITH SOME LINGERING ACTIVITY POSSIBLE ACROSS
THE LOCAL ATLANTIC WATERS.
COOLER TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST TO PERSIST ACROSS THE AREA OVER
THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS, WITH AFTERNOON HIGHS GENERALLY IN THE 50S
AND SOME LOW 60S POSSIBLE ALONG THE TREASURE COAST. WEDNESDAY
NIGHT, LOWS IN THE 40S ACROSS MUCH OF THE INTERIOR AND IN THE 50S
ALONG THE COAST SOUTH OF THE CAPE AND ACROSS THE TREASURE COAST.
COOLER ON THURSDAY NIGHT, WITH LOWS IN THE 30S ACROSS MUCH OF THE
INTERIOR AND IN THE LOW TO MID 40S ALONG THE COAST SOUTH OF THE
CAPE AND NEAR LAKE OKEECHOBEE. WIND CHILLS IN THE UPPER 20S TO MID
30S THURSDAY NIGHT.
FRIDAY-TUESDAY (PREVIOUS MODIFIED)...SIGNIFICANT DRYING IS FORECAST
TO OVERSPREAD THE AREA FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY WITH THE COLDEST
TEMPS FORECAST FOR THIS WEEK. WIDESPREAD 30S IS FORECAST BY SATURDAY
MORNING WITH LOW TO MID 40S LIMITED TO THE IMMEDIATE TREASURE COAST.
DESPITE INCREASING SUNSHINE, MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES MAY STILL HOLD IN
THE UPPER 50S ACROSS LAKE AND VOLUSIA COUNTIES WITH LOW TO MID 60S
ELSEWHERE. BUT A WARMING TREND APPEARS IN THE CARDS AS HIGH PRESSURE
TRACKS EAST INTO THE ATLANTIC OFF THE CAROLINA COAST SUNDAY, VEERING
THE LOCAL WINDS ONSHORE AND FINALLY LOSING THE NORTH WIND COMPONENT.
DRY CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST TO PREVAIL THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE
WEEKEND AND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. LOWS SUNDAY MORNING IN THE 40S AND
50S, RISING TO THE LOW TO MID 70S, AND A COUPLE/FEW DEGREES WARMER
ON MONDAY AND TUESDAY.
MARINE
ISSUED AT 915 PM EST TUE JAN 21 2025
HAZARDOUS TO DANGEROUS BOATING CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST ACROSS THE
LOCAL ATLANTIC WATERS OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS. GALE CONDITIONS ARE
DEVELOPING TONIGHT AS A SURGE OF NORTHERLY WINDS MOVES SOUTHWARD
ACROSS THE WATERS, CAUSING SEAS TO QUICKLY BUILD TO 9 TO 14 FEET.
WINDS DIMINISH INTO WEDNESDAY, BUT SEAS WILL REMAIN HAZARDOUS OVER
THE NEXT FEW DAYS. AN INCREASE THURSDAY AFTERNOON IN NORTHERLY
WINDS TO AROUND 20 KNOTS AND PERSISTENT SEAS ACROSS THE GULF
STREAM WILL KEEP CONDITIONS HAZARDOUS ON THURSDAY.
AS A RESULT OF THESE CONDITIONS, A GALE WARNING IS IN EFFECT
THROUGH 5 AM WEDNESDAY ACROSS THE VOLUSIA AND BREVARD WATERS, AND
WILL TRANSITION TO A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY AFTER 5 AM TOMORROW
MORNING, CONTINUING THROUGH AT LEAST THURSDAY EVENING. A SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORY GOES INTO EFFECT (SLIGHTLY SOONER) AT 10 PM
TONIGHT FOR THE TREASURE COAST WATERS, AND CONTINUES THROUGH AT
LEAST THURSDAY EVENING. EXTENSIONS TO THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY MAY
BE NEEDED FOR ALL LEGS OF THE LOCAL ATLANTIC WATERS.
IN ADDITION TO THE HAZARDOUS TO DANGEROUS BOATING CONDITIONS,
NUMEROUS TO WIDESPREAD SHOWER ACTIVITY IS FORECAST TO PERSIST
ACROSS THE LOCAL ATLANTIC WATERS TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY.
CONDITIONS BEGIN TO DRY OUT ON FRIDAY, WITH BOATING CONDITIONS
STILL REMAINING POOR THROUGH FRIDAY. BY SATURDAY, WINDS AND SEAS
ARE FORECAST TO DIMINISH, AND A RETURN TO FAVORABLE BOATING
CONDITIONS IS LIKELY SUNDAY INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.
AVIATION
(00Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 656 PM EST TUE JAN 21 2025
IFR CONDITIONS PREVAILING TONIGHT, LIFTING TO MVFR BY MID MORNING
ACROSS THE INTERIOR AND BY EARLY AFTERNOON ALONG THE COAST. INCREASING
COVERAGE OF SHOWERS THIS EVENING INTO TONIGHT, WITH SHRA AND -SHRA
PREVAILING ACROSS ALL TAF SITES THROUGH TONIGHT, ENDING ACROSS THE
INTERIOR SITES AROUND 14Z AND ALONG THE COAST BY AROUND 16Z.
OCCASIONAL REDUCTIONS TO LIFR WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH THESE SHOWERS,
BUT CONFIDENCE IN TIMING CONTINUES TO BE LOW. NORTHERLY WINDS
PERSIST THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD, WITH WINDS INCREASING THIS
EVENING TO 15-20 KT WITH GUSTS 25-30 KT. WINDS WILL REMAIN
ELEVATED THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD, WITH SPEEDS DECREASING TO 10-15
KT WITH GUSTS 20-25 KT BY EARLY EVENING ON WEDNESDAY. THE
STRONGEST WINDS LOOK TO BE ALONG THE COAST FROM THE SPACE COAST
NORTHWARD (DAB/TIX/MLB).
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
DAB 39 52 45 55 / 90 70 30 40
MCO 40 53 46 54 / 80 60 20 40
MLB 45 60 50 61 / 80 80 30 50
VRB 49 63 54 65 / 70 80 30 50
LEE 36 50 40 52 / 90 60 20 30
SFB 39 52 45 55 / 90 70 20 40
ORL 39 52 45 54 / 80 70 20 40
FPR 49 62 54 65 / 70 70 30 50
MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
FL...HIGH SURF ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EST WEDNESDAY FOR FLZ141-347-447.
WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM EST WEDNESDAY FOR FLZ141-347-447-647-
747.
WIND ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 9 AM EST WEDNESDAY FOR
FLZ154-159-164.
AM...GALE WARNING UNTIL 5 AM EST WEDNESDAY FOR AMZ550-552-570-572.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 5 AM WEDNESDAY TO 7 PM EST THURSDAY
FOR AMZ550-552-570-572.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EST THURSDAY FOR AMZ555-575.
UPDATE...SCHAPER
AVIATION...WATSON
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