805  
FXUS62 KMLB 262011  
AFDMLB  
 
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION  
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MELBOURNE FL  
411 PM EDT WED JUL 26 2017  
   
DISCUSSION
 
 
THROUGH TONIGHT...NUMEROUS SEA AND RIVER/LAKE BREEZE BOUNDARIES  
SEEN ON RADAR THIS AFTERNOON GENERATING SOME STRONG STORMS OVER  
NORTH BREVARD. EXPECT ADDITIONAL STORMS TO DEVELOP INTO EARLY  
EVENING OVER THE INTERIOR AS A RESULT OF MORE BOUNDARY COLLISIONS.  
A FEW OF THESE STORMS COULD ALSO BECOME STRONG CONTAINING FREQUENT  
LIGHTNING STRIKES AND HEAVY DOWNPOURS. HAVE DRAWN 30 POP FOR MUCH  
OF THE NORTH INTERIOR, INCLUDING I 4 CORRIDOR WITH 20 POP TO THE  
SOUTH AND NO MENTIONABLE RAIN CHANCES FOR THE TREASURE COAST.  
 
THU...RIDGE AXIS IS FORECAST TO REMAIN ACROSS THE TREASURE COAST  
BUT A LITTLE LESS SUPPRESSION ALOFT AND A LITTLE MORE MOISTURE  
SHOULD PRODUCE A HIGHER COVERAGE OF STORMS, 40-50 PERCENT, OVER  
THE INTERIOR/VOLUSIA ASSOCD WITH BOUNDARY COLLISIONS. LOWEST RAIN  
CHANCES WILL BE FOUND ALONG THE TREASURE COAST (10-20 PERCENT) AS  
SEA BREEZE MOVES QUICKLY INLAND. WHILE HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL  
CONTINUE TO BE A LITTLE ABOVE NORMAL IN THE LOW TO MID 90S, HEAT  
INDICES SHOULD NOT BE QUITE AS HIGH DUE TO LESS SUPPRESSION AND  
MORE CLOUDS/RAIN CHANCES.  
 
FRI-SAT...MID-LEVEL TROUGH OVER NORTH FLORIDA AND LOW-LEVEL RIDGE  
AXIS OVER SOUTH FLORIDA WILL KEEP THE AREA BEING IN A FAIRLY DEEP  
SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW. ON FRIDAY, OVERALL MOISTURE WILL BE QUITE A BIT  
LOWER THAN ON THURSDAY WITH PWATS AROUND 1.75" NEAR THE I-4 CORRIDOR  
AND INCREASING BY MAYBE A TENTH OR TWO FURTHER TO THE SOUTH. THE  
EAST-COAST SEA BREEZE WILL BE BATTLING THE DEEP SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW  
AND WILL STRUGGLE TO PROGRESS VERY FAR INLAND, ESPECIALLY NORTH OF  
THE CAPE, WHERE THE SEA BREEZE MAY NOT MOVE INLAND AT ALL. WINDS ARE  
SOMEWHAT WEAKER FARTHER TO THE SOUTH ALLOWING THE SEA BREEZE TO MAKE  
IT INLAND AND KEEPING THE SEA-BREEZE INTERACTIONS CONFINED TO THE I-  
95 CORRIDOR. HAVE THE HIGHEST CHANCES OF SHOWERS/STORMS FOR THE  
SOUTHERN COASTAL LOCATIONS FOR THE BETTER MOISTURE AND SEA BREEZE  
INTERACTIONS (40%) AND DECREASING FARTHER TO THE NORTH AND INLAND.  
 
ON SATURDAY, HAVE THE HIGHEST SHOWER/STORMS FOR THE TREASURE COAST  
AREA DUE TO THE DEEPER MOISTURE AND BETTER LIFT BEING FORECAST FOR  
THAT AREA. GUIDANCE HAS TRENDED DRIER, ESPECIALLY OVER NORTHERN  
SECTIONS BUT HAVEN'T DEVIATED TOO MUCH FROM THE PREVIOUS FORECAST.  
UNFORTUNATELY, THE SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW STRENGTHENS FROM THAT ON  
FRIDAY AND LIKELY HALTING ANY SEA BREEZE FORMATION TO PROVIDE SOME  
RELIEF FROM THE HEAT FOR COASTAL SPOTS.  
 
MID 90S CONTINUE FOR HIGH TEMPS AND LOWS IN THE MID TO UPPER 70S,  
BUT AT LEAST THERE WILL BE A DECENT BREEZE IN THE AFTERNOON AND  
EVENING HOURS.  
 
SUN-TUE (PREVIOUS)...RIDGE AXIS WILL REMAIN SOUTH OF THE AREA  
THROUGH THE PERIOD AS DIGGING TROUGH ALOFT SHIFTS A FRONTAL  
BOUNDARY INTO NORTH FLORIDA. THIS BOUNDARY WILL STALL NORTH OF THE  
AREA AND GRADUALLY FADE INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. HOWEVER, MOISTURE  
POOLING AHEAD OF THE FRONT, COMBINED WITH DEEP OFFSHORE FLOW AND  
PASSING IMPULSES ALOFT WILL LEAD TO HIGHER SHOWER/STORM COVERAGE  
EACH AFTERNOON TRACKING EASTWARD ACROSS THE REGION AND OFFSHORE.  
EAST COAST SEA BREEZE WILL LIKELY BE DELAYED AND MAY NOT DEVELOP  
AT ALL, ESPECIALLY NORTH OF THE CAPE WHERE LOW LEVEL OFFSHORE  
WINDS WILL BE A LITTLE STRONGER. STRONGER STORM DEVELOPMENT WILL  
BE POSSIBLE NEAR THE COAST WHERE SEA BREEZE CAN FORM AND ACT AS A  
FOCUS FOR BOUNDARY/STORM COLLISIONS LATER IN THE DAY. INCREASED  
RAIN CHANCES AND CLOUD COVER SHOULD KEEP HIGHS NEAR NORMAL THROUGH  
THE PERIOD.  
 

 
   
AVIATION
 
 
VFR.  
 

 
   
MARINE
 
 
RIDGE AXIS CURRENTLY ACROSS CENTRAL FLORIDA WILL SHIFT SOUTHWARD  
THROUGH LATE WEEK AND INTO THE WEEKEND. THIS WILL VEER SOUTHERLY  
WINDS TO A MORE OFFSHORE DIRECTION INTO THE WEEKEND. WIND SPEEDS  
AROUND 5-10 KNOTS THURSDAY WILL INCREASE UP TO 10-15 KNOTS FRI-  
SUN. WAVE HEIGHTS WILL GENERALLY RESIDE AROUND 2-3 FEET.  
 
W/SW STEERING FLOW WILL KEEP A THREAT FOR OFFSHORE MOVING  
THUNDERSTORMS EACH AFTERNOON, WITH THE POTENTIAL INCREASING INTO  
LATE WEEKEND AS INCREASING MOISTURE WILL LEAD TO HIGHER COVERAGE OF  
AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND STORMS.  
 

 
   
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
 
 
DAB 76 92 75 94 / 30 40 20 30  
MCO 76 94 75 94 / 30 50 20 30  
MLB 78 92 76 94 / 20 30 20 40  
VRB 77 92 75 94 / 20 20 20 40  
LEE 77 94 76 93 / 20 40 10 30  
SFB 77 94 76 95 / 30 50 20 30  
ORL 78 94 77 94 / 30 50 20 30  
FPR 77 92 75 94 / 20 20 20 40  
 

 
   
MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
 
 
FL...NONE.  
AM...NONE.  
 

 
 

 
 
FORECASTS...KELLY/COMBS  
AVIATION/RADAR...JOHNSON  
 
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