214  
FXUS62 KMLB 231425  
AFDMLB  
 
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION  
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MELBOURNE FL  
1025 AM EDT SAT SEP 23 2017  
   
..INCREASED RAIN CHANCES TODAY WITH LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL
 
 
...HIGH SURF AND STRONG RIP CURRENTS THIS AFTERNOON AND CONTINUING  
SUNDAY AND MONDAY...  
   
UPDATE
 
 
EAST CENTRAL FLORIDA IS SITUATED BETWEEN AN UPPER LOW JUST NORTH OF  
THE FL PANHANDLE AND HURRICANE MARIA WELL EAST OF THE CENTRAL  
BAHAMAS NEAR 72W. LOW LEVEL ENE FLOW IS NEAR 15-20 KNOTS ACROSS THE  
AREA THIS MORNING AND FORECAST TO INCREASE TO 20-25 KNOTS TOWARD  
EVENING IN THE H9-H8 LAYER. THE LOW LEVEL ENE FLOW AND FAIRLY DEEP  
MOISTURE ACROSS THE AREA WILL SUPPORT SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS  
AND ISOLATED STORMS MOVING ONSHORE INTO THE AFTERNOON WITH SHORT  
RANGE MODELS AND THE HRRR FAVORING HIGHER COVERAGE GENERALLY SOUTH  
OF A CAPE CANAVERAL TO KISSIMMEE LINE. WILL HAVE POPS FROM 50  
PERCENT NORTH TO 60-70 PERCENT CENTRAL AND SRN SECTIONS. THERE COULD  
BE SOME LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL IN AREAS THAT SEE REPEATED SHOWERS  
AND ISOLATED STORMS MOVE ONSHORE TODAY. THE OTHER FORECAST CONCERNS  
ARE ALONG THE EAST COAST WHERE A HIGH RISK OF RIP CURRENTS IS  
ADVERTISED AND LARGER SWELLS FROM HURRICANE MARIA WILL BEGIN TO  
AFFECT THE BEACHES INTO LATE AFTERNOON. A HIGH SURF ADVISORY IS IN  
EFFECT THROUGH THE WEEKEND FOR THE DEVELOPING HAZARDOUS SURF  
CONDITIONS WHICH LOOK TO PEAK ON SUNDAY INTO MONDAY. HIGH TEMPS WILL  
REACH GENERALLY BE IN THE MID 80S CLOSE TO THE COAST TO THE UPPER  
80S FOR THE INTERIOR.  
 

 
   
AVIATION
 
 
NUMEROUS SHRA/ISOLD TSRA WILL MOVE ONSHORE AND AFFECT TERMINALS IN  
THE KTIX-KSUA CORRIDOR THROUGH THE DAYTIME HOURS. APPEARS COVERAGE  
WILL BE SLIGHTLY LOWER NORTH OF A KISM-KTIX LINE BUT WILL STILL SEE  
SOME SCATTERED SHRA/TSRA DEVELOPMENT THIS AFTERNOON WITH CONVECTION  
MOVING INLAND TOWARD KLEE-KISM BY MID-LATE AFTERNOON. VFR OUTSIDE OF  
CONVECTION WITH BRIEF MVFR CONDS WITH CIGS/LOWER VSBYS IN HEAVY RAIN.  
AS LOW LEVEL FLOW BECOMES NORTHEAST TONIGHT EXPECT SHOWER BANDS FROM  
THE ATLC TO FOCUS ALONG THE COASTAL TERMINAL CORRIDOR FROM KTIX-KSUA.  
 

 
   
MARINE
 
 
UPDATE...NO SIGNIFICANT ADJUSTMENTS TO MARINE FORECAST WITH NE WINDS  
TO 15-20 KNOTS ACROSS THE WATERS INTO THIS AFTERNOON AND SEAS  
BUILDING TO 5-7 FT NEAR SHORE AND UP TO 8-10 FT WELL OFFSHORE. SMALL  
CRAFT ADVISORIES WILL BE IN EFFECT FOR ALL WATERS THIS AFTERNOON AND  
CONTINUE INTO MONDAY. A PROLONGED COMBINED HIGH SEAS/SWELL EVENT IS  
EXPECTED AS HURRICANE MARIA MOVES NORTHWARD...WELL EAST OF THE AREA  
TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY.  
 

 
   
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
 
 
DAB 85 75 86 74 / 50 20 20 10  
MCO 86 75 89 73 / 50 20 30 10  
MLB 86 77 87 75 / 60 30 30 10  
VRB 86 76 88 75 / 70 40 40 10  
LEE 88 73 90 73 / 50 20 30 10  
SFB 86 73 89 73 / 50 20 20 10  
ORL 86 74 89 72 / 50 20 30 10  
FPR 86 76 87 74 / 70 40 40 10  
 

 
   
MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
 
 
FL...HIGH SURF ADVISORY FROM 2 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 4 AM EDT MONDAY  
FOR COASTAL VOLUSIA COUNTY-INDIAN RIVER-MARTIN-NORTHERN  
BREVARD COUNTY-SOUTHERN BREVARD COUNTY-ST. LUCIE.  
 
AM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 PM EDT MONDAY FOR FLAGLER BEACH TO  
VOLUSIA-BREVARD COUNTY LINE 0-20 NM-FLAGLER BEACH TO  
VOLUSIA-BREVARD COUNTY LINE 20-60 NM-SEBASTIAN INLET TO  
JUPITER INLET 20-60 NM-VOLUSIA-BREVARD COUNTY LINE TO  
SEBASTIAN INLET 0-20 NM-VOLUSIA-BREVARD COUNTY LINE TO  
SEBASTIAN INLET 20-60 NM.  
 
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 2 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 4 PM EDT MONDAY  
FOR SEBASTIAN INLET TO JUPITER INLET 0-20 NM.  
 

 
 

 
 
VOLKMER/JOHNSON  
 
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