269  
FXUS62 KMLB 190231  
AFDMLB  
 
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION  
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MELBOURNE FL  
1031 PM EDT MON MAR 18 2024  
   
..NEW UPDATE, MARINE, FIRE WEATHER, AVIATION
 
 
   
UPDATE
 
 
ISSUED AT 918 PM EDT MON MAR 18 2024  
 
IMPROVING CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS  
ACROSS EAST CENTRAL FLORIDA, WITH MODEL GUIDANCE INDICATING  
ANOTHER ROUND OF ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS, PRIMARILY ACROSS  
THE TREASURE COAST AND OKEECHOBEE COUNTY, LATE TONIGHT AS THE  
FRONT PUSHES FURTHER SOUTH. AN ISOLATED STORM OR TWO CANNOT FULLY  
BE RULED OUT, THOUGH CONFIDENCE IN THIS IS LOW. WENT AHEAD AND  
UPPED POPS BASED ON THIS TO AROUND 30 PERCENT ACROSS THE SOUTHERN  
PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA. SHOWER AND STORM CHANCES ARE THEN  
FORECAST TO DIMINISH OVERNIGHT ACROSS EAST CENTRAL FLORIDA AS  
DRIER AIR BEGINS FILTERING IN ACROSS THE PENINSULA BEHIND THE  
FRONT. NORTH TO NORTHWEST WINDS ARE FORECAST TO INCREASE TO 10 TO  
25 MPH WITH GUSTS 25 TO 35 MPH BEHIND THE FRONT, WITH THE  
STRONGEST GUSTS FORECAST TO OCCUR ALONG THE COAST, ESPECIALLY THE  
BARRIER ISLANDS. SKIES WILL GRADUALLY CLEAR DUE TO THE DRIER  
AIRMASS MOVING IN. TEMPERATURES WILL BE NOTICEABLY COOLER THAN  
LAST NIGHT, WITH LOWS IN THE MID TO UPPER 40S NORTH AND WEST OF  
THE I-4 CORRIDOR, AND IN THE 50S SOUTHWARD.  
 

 
   
MARINE
 
 
ISSUED AT 918 PM EDT MON MAR 18 2024  
 
DETERIORATING BOATING CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST ACROSS THE LOCAL  
ATLANTIC WATERS TONIGHT. WINDS ARE FORECAST TO INCREASE OUT OF THE  
NORTH BEHIND A COLD FRONT THAT IS MOVING SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE  
LOCAL ATLANTIC WATERS, WITH WINDS 10 TO 15 KNOTS INCREASING TO 20  
TO 30 KNOTS LATE TONIGHT. OCCASIONAL WIND GUSTS BETWEEN 35 TO 40  
KNOTS WILL BE POSSIBLE, ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE OFFSHORE WATERS. IN  
RESPONSE TO THESE INCREASING WINDS, SEAS WILL ALSO INCREASE TO 6  
TO 10 FEET. A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IS CURRENTLY IN EFFECT ACROSS  
THE OFFSHORE VOLUSIA AND BREVARD WATERS, AND WILL EXPAND TO  
INCLUDE THE REMAINING WATERS AFTER 1 AM.  
 
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWER DEVELOPMENT WILL CONTINUE TO BE  
POSSIBLE TONIGHT AS THE FRONT SAGS SOUTHWARD, WITH RAIN CHANCES  
DECREASING THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. ISOLATED STORMS CANNOT BE  
RULED OUT, THOUGH CONFIDENCE IN ANY MORE DEVELOPMENT IS LOW. DRY  
CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST BEHIND THE FRONT.  
 

 
   
FIRE WEATHER
 
 
ISSUED AT 918 PM EDT MON MAR 18 2024  
 
TUE-THU (PREVIOUS)...VERY DRY CONDITIONS THROUGH MID-WEEK, AS  
POST- FRONTAL AIR LEADS TO MIN RH VALUES AROUND 45% OR LOWER TUE  
AREA- WIDE AND AS LOW AS THE UPPER 20%S ACROSS THE INTERIOR. THIS  
WILL LEAD TO VERY SENSITIVE FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS WHEN COMBINED  
WITH NORTHERLY WINDS 10-15 MPH, AND UP TO 15-20 MPH ALONG THE  
COAST, TUE MORNING. BUT, WILL SEE WINDS DECREASE BY TUE AFTN.  
GENERALLY GOOD TO VERY GOOD DISPERSION IN THE MORNING WILL BECOME  
FAIR TO GENERALLY GOOD THROUGH THE DAY.  
 
FURTHER DRYING IS THEN FORECAST WED, WITH WIDESPREAD MIN RHS IN THE  
MID TO UPPER 20%S, WHILE COASTAL AREAS SOUTH OF THE CAPE REMAIN IN  
THE MID TO UPPER 30%S. HOWEVER, WINDS BECOME LIGHT, AS HIGH PRESSURE  
BUILDS INTO THE AREA. WIND DIRECTIONS WILL BE VARIABLE, BUT A SEA  
BREEZE IS POSSIBLE DURING THE AFTERNOON. LIGHTER WINDS WILL LEAD TO  
POOR TO FAIR DISPERSION.  
 
WILL SEE SOME IMPROVEMENT THU, THOUGH MIN RH 30-45% IS STILL  
FORECAST, WITH THE DRIEST CONDITIONS INLAND. WINDS INCREASE ONCE  
AGAIN, BECOMING EASTERLY AROUND 8-12 MPH IN THE AFTERNOON.  
 

 
   
AVIATION
 
 
(00Z TAFS)  
ISSUED AT 918 PM EDT MON MAR 18 2024  
 
VCSH DIMINISHING ACROSS EAST CENTRAL FLORIDA AFTER 03Z AS THE COLD  
FRONT SAGS SOUTHWARD. INCREASING NORTH-NORTHWESTERLY WINDS  
TONIGHT, WITH WINDS 10 TO 15 KNOTS AND GUSTS UP TO 25 KNOTS  
POSSIBLE. SKIES ARE FORECAST TO GRADUALLY CLEAR ACROSS THE AREA AS  
DRIER AIR FILTERS IN BEHIND THE FRONT. AS A RESULT, VFR  
CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST THROUGH THE PERIOD. WINDS WILL GRADUALLY  
DIMINISH TO AROUND 10 KNOTS TOMORROW. DRY THROUGH THE PERIOD AFTER  
03Z TONIGHT.  
 

 
   
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
 
 
DAB 48 62 44 73 / 20 0 0 0  
MCO 51 67 47 74 / 20 0 0 0  
MLB 54 66 50 73 / 20 0 0 0  
VRB 57 69 50 74 / 30 0 0 0  
LEE 47 67 45 73 / 20 0 0 0  
SFB 49 66 44 75 / 20 0 0 0  
ORL 51 67 48 75 / 20 0 0 0  
FPR 57 69 49 74 / 30 0 0 0  
 

 
   
MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
 
 
FL...NONE.  
AM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 1 AM TO 11 AM EDT TUESDAY FOR AMZ550-  
552.  
 
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 1 AM TO 11 PM EDT TUESDAY FOR AMZ555-  
575.  
 
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 11 PM EDT TUESDAY FOR AMZ570-572.  
 

 
 

 
 
TOLLEFSEN/WEITLICH  
 
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