183
FXUS62 KTAE 090645
AFDTAE
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL
200 AM EST TUE FEB 9 2010
SYNOPSIS
A WEAKENING RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE IS JUST HANGING ON
ACROSS EASTERN SECTIONS OF THE CWA EARLY THIS MORNING...WITH THE
NEXT SFC LOW AND ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT ALREADY RAPIDLY APPROACHING
FROM THE WEST OVER LA AS OF 1 AM EST. A FAIRLY DECENT AREA OF RAIN
WITH A FEW EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS IS PRECEDING THIS FRONT..BUT EXPECT
THE THUNDER TO DISSIPATE BEFORE THIS LINE OF RAIN REACHES OUR CWA
LATER THIS MORNING...ALTHOUGH A STORM OR TWO COULD NOT BE RULED PUT
OVER THE OFFSHORE COASTAL WATERS. IN EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE REGION
WHERE THE CLOUDS HAVE NOT YET ARRIVED...TEMPS HAVE ALREADY DROPPED
OFF INTO THE MID TO UPPER 30S TO THE LOWER 40S IN MANY INLAND
AREAS...SO HAD TO MAKE SOME MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO THIS MORNING'S LOW
TEMPS...WHICH SHOULD RECOVER ONCE THE CLOUDS DO ARRIVE BEFORE
SUNRISE. OVER THE MARINE AREA...WINDS ARE PICKING UP OUR OF THE SE
AS EXPECTED...AND ANTICIPATE SCA CONDITIONS TO BEGIN LATER THIS
MORNING...AND SHOULD LAST FOR QUITE A WHILE AS WINDS REALLY PICK UP
OUT OF THE NW BEHIND THE COLD FRONT.
SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY...AS MENTIONED ABOVE
EXPECT A
GENERAL RAINY AND COOL DAY ACROSS THE REGION TODAY WITH THE RAIN
LIKELY TO BEGIN BEFORE SUNRISE ACROSS WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE CWA.
CLEARING AND MUCH COLDER CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED OVER THE AREA
TONIGHT BEHIND THE COLD FRONT...WITH SEVERAL HOURS OF BELOW FREEZING
TEMPERATURES EXPECTED AWAY FROM THE COAST. WIND CHILLS WILL ALSO BE
SOMEWHAT OF A CONCERN...AS APPARENT TEMPS COULD REACH THE UPPER
TEENS TO LOWER 20S ACROSS MANY AREAS FOR SEVERAL HOURS TONIGHT. A
MOSTLY SUNNY...COLD...AND DRY DAY IS THEN FORECAST FOR WEDNESDAY...
AS HIGH TEMPERATURES STRUGGLE TO REACH THE UPPER 40S TO LOWER
50S FROM NORTH TO SOUTH ACROSS THE AREA. THIS COLD DAY SHOULD SET
THE STAGE FOR YET ANOTHER CLEAR AND COLD NIGHT ACROSS THE REGION
..AND WITH THE LIGHTER WINDS EXPECTED CLOSER TO THE SFC RIDGE
WE
WILL DEFINITELY HAVE TO MONITOR CONDITIONS CLOSELY FOR A POSSIBLE
HARD FREEZE AWAY FROM THE COAST.
LONG TERM (THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
THE SHORT WAVE TROUGH
OVER THE CNTRL/SRN PLAINS AT THE BEGINNING OF THE EXTENDED PERIOD
TRANSLATES SMARTLY EAST THROUGH THE SERN CONUS THROUGH SATURDAY
MORNING. A BRIEF PERIOD OF ZONAL FLOW ALOFT SATURDAY NIGHT AND
SUNDAY IS FOLLOWED BY SIGNIFICANT DEEPENING OF THE LONG WAVE TROUGH
OVER THE ERN CONUS...WITH A LONG WAVE RIDGE OUT WEST. SURFACE LOW
PRESSURE IS STILL PROGGED BY THE MODELS TO ORGANIZE ALONG THE SRN TX
COAST AND EMERGE INTO THE WRN GOMEX THURSDAY NIGHT. THE GULF LOW
THEN ACCELERATES EWD THROUGH THE CNTRL AND ERN GOMEX FRIDAY...TO THE
VICINITY OF THE FL STRAITS FRIDAY NIGHT...AND THEN EAST OF THE
BAHAMAS ON SATURDAY. THE PAST TWO RUNS OF THE GFS AND GFS ENSEMBLE
(08/18Z AND 09/00Z) HAVE SHIFTED THE TRACK SWD BY A 100 MI OR SO.
THE 08/12Z EURO REMAINS ABOUT 200 MI FURTHER NORTH...BUT MAY COME
INTO AGREEMENT WITH THE 00Z MEMBERS. BASED ON THE LATEST GFS
TRENDS...THE HEAVIER QPF SHIFTS INTO THE GOMEX WITH LIGHTER AMOUNTS
TO THE NORTH ACROSS THE CWA FROM LATE THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY
NIGHT. THE CHALLENGES FOR THIS TIME PERIOD REMAIN: "WHAT WILL BE THE
P-TYPE?" BOTH THE GFS AND NAM SOUNDINGS FOR ABY AND DHN AT 06 AND
12Z FRIDAY DEPICT DEEP MOISTURE ABOVE 800 MB WITH A PRONOUNCED DRY
LAYER BELOW TO JUST ABOVE THE SURFACE. TEMPS IN THE LOWER LEVELS ARE
JUST ABOVE FREEZING. A PERIOD OF -RA MIXED WITH -SN OR -IP IS A GOOD
POSSIBILITY NORTH OF THE AL/GA BORDER DURING THIS TIME. HIGH TEMPS
LATER FRIDAY ONLY MODERATING IN TO THE 40S...WITH PRECIP FALLING IN
THE FORM OF -RA. FRIDAY NIGHT...850/500 MB TROUGH AXIS IS DIRECTLY
OVER THE CWA WITH MOISTURE STILL IN PLACE. WITH 850 TEMPS DROPPING
TO -2 AND SURFACE TEMPS JUST ABOVE FREEZING...A BRIEF PERIOD OF
-RA/-SN MIX CANNOT BE RULED OUT...MAINLY OVER THE NRN HALF OF THE
CWA. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE TO THE WEST SLIDES EAST ACROSS THE
GULF COAST STATES THIS WEEKEND...WITH LIGHT FREEZES DURING THE
MORNING AND HIGHS 5-10 DEG BELOW NORMAL (NORMAL HIGHS IN THE
MID-UPPER 60S). ON MONDAY...A POTENT SHORT WAVE DROPS SEWD FROM THE
NRN PLAINS THROUGH THE MID MS AND OH VALLEYS...WITH A COLD FRONT
SWEEPING THROUGH THE SERN STATES. MOISTURE RETURN WITH THIS FRONT
WILL BE MARGINAL AND RESULT IN A BRIEF PERIOD OF LIGHT PRECIP OVER
NWRN ZONES PREDAWN...AND EXIT SERN ZONES EARLY AFTERNOON. TIMING OF
THE PRECIP ONSET WILL BE CRITICAL AS TO ITS TYPE...WITH THE
POSSIBILITY OF A -RA/-SN MIX FOR AREAS WEST OF A LINE FROM ABY TO
MAI. ANOTHER LIGHT FREEZE IS EXPECTED TUESDAY MORNING. HIGHS BOTH
MONDAY AND TUESDAY WILL AVERAGE ABOUT 10 DEG BELOW NORMAL.
AVIATION (THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY)
MID AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS WILL
OVERSPREAD THE REGION FROM WEST TO EAST WITH CIGS LOWERING TO MVFR
BY TUESDAY MORNING. SHOWERS WILL ARRIVE AT KPFN AND KDHN TOWARD
SUNRISE AND THEN SPREAD EAST OVER THE REMAINING TERMINALS BY MID
MORNING. WILL MAINTAIN CIGS IN THE LOW END MVFR RANGE (1000-1500
FT)...BUT WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED TO SEE A FEW HOURS OF IFR CIGS
DURING THE DAYLIGHT HOURS OF TUESDAY. RAINFALL WILL END FROM WEST TO
EAST IN THE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING WITH A GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS
IN THE WAKE OF THE COLD FRONT.
MARINE...AS MENTIONED ABOVE
WINDS AND SEAS ARE ALREADY INCREASING
OUT OF THE S AND SE AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING COLD FRONT...SO WILL
INITIATE A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY AT 16 UTC TODAY WHICH WILL LAST INTO
AT LEAST WEDNESDAY MORNING...AS NW WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO ACCELERATE
IN EARNEST BEHIND THE COLD FRONT.
FIRE WEATHER
INCREASING MOISTURE AND RAIN CHANCES TODAY WILL
PRECLUDE RED FLAG CONDITIONS. MUCH DRIER AIR ON GUSTY NORTHWESTERLY
WINDS WEDNESDAY WILL ENHANCE FIRE GROWTH POTENTIAL...ESPECIALLY OVER
THE FL ZONES. THEREFORE...A FIRE WEATHER WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED.
ACROSS SERN AL AND SWRN GA...DURATIONS OF SUB-25 PERCENT RH WILL FALL
SHORT OF RED FLAG CRITERIA (ONE TO THREE HOURS). THE DRY AIR MASS
WILL LINGER THROUGH THURSDAY WITH POTENTIAL RED FLAG CONDITIONS
ACROSS THE FL ZONES...FOLLOWED BY INCREASING MOISTURE THURSDAY NIGHT
AND FRIDAY IN ADVANCE OF THE NEXT LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
TALLAHASSEE 60 29 51 27 51 / 70 00 00 00 10
PANAMA CITY 59 33 51 31 50 / 80 00 00 00 10
DOTHAN 53 27 49 26 48 / 80 00 00 00 10
ALBANY 54 27 49 26 49 / 70 05 00 00 10
VALDOSTA 58 29 51 26 51 / 60 10 00 00 10
CROSS CITY 61 30 51 28 53 / 60 10 00 00 10
APALACHICOLA 62 33 51 35 50 / 70 05 00 00 10
TAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
AL...NONE.
GA...NONE.
FL...FIRE WX WATCH WED AFTN ALL ZONES.
GM...SCA TODAY INTO WEDNESDAY ALL LEGS.
PUBLIC/MARINE...GOULD
AVIATION/FIRE WX/LONG TERM...JAMSKI
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