761  
FXUS62 KTAE 201047  
AFDTAE  
 
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION  
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL  
647 AM EDT WED SEP 20 2017  
 
   
AVIATION [THROUGH 12Z THURSDAY]
 
 
FOG HAS DEVELOPED AT DHN DURING THE LAST COUPLE OF HOURS, WITH  
IFR/LIFR CONDITIONS PERSISTING AT THIS TIME. PATCHY FOG IS ALSO  
CAUSING MVFR CONDITIONS AT ABY. EXPECT FOG TO DISSIPATE WITHIN  
THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS, WITH VFR CONDITIONS PREVAILING THROUGH  
MOST OF THE REMAINDER OF THIS PERIOD. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND  
THUNDERSTORMS COULD DEVELOP, MAINLY AT ECP AND TLH IN THE AFTERNOON  
OR EARLY EVENING, BUT ANY VISIBILITY REDUCTIONS WILL BE BRIEF.  
 

 
   
PREV DISCUSSION [310 AM EDT]
 
 
   
NEAR TERM [THROUGH TODAY]
 
 
MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE EARLY MORNING HOURS  
AS SHOWERS ACROSS SW GEORGIA HAVE MAINLY DISSIPATED AND MODERATE  
VALUES OF SURFACE-BASED CIN ALONG WITH WEAK INSTABILITY SHOULD  
PREVENT MUCH REDEVELOPMENT. CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS  
WILL GRADUALLY INCREASE ACROSS OUR AREA LATER THIS MORNING INTO THE  
AFTERNOON AS INSTABILITY INCREASES. HIGHEST CHANCES SHOULD BE ACROSS  
THE FL PANHANDLE WHERE THE MOST DEEP LAYER MOISTURE WILL BE PRESENT;  
PWAT VALUES ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE TO AROUND 2.0" IN THIS AREA  
DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING. ALSO, AN UPPER LEVEL  
SHORTWAVE APPROACHING FROM THE WEST MAY PROVIDE SOME FORCING TO  
ENHANCE COVERAGE OF SHOWERS & THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE PANHANDLE AND  
PARTS OF SE ALABAMA DURING THIS TIME. HIGHS WILL RANGE FROM THE  
UPPER 80S TO LOWER 90S INLAND, WITH MID-UPPER 80S ALONG THE GULF  
COAST.  
 
   
SHORT TERM [TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY]
 
 
A RATHER COMPLEX ATMOSPHERIC SCENARIO WILL TAKE PLACE IN THE SHORT  
TERM AND INTO THE EARLY PART OF THE LONG TERM PERIOD. A STRONG  
UPPER LOW AND DEEPENING TROUGH WILL SLOWLY MOVE ACROSS THE  
NORTHWEST AND DIG SOUTHWARD INTO BAJA CALIFORNIA. IN RESPONSE, AN  
ELONGATED SKINNY RIDGE WILL SET UP FROM TEXAS NORTHEAST TO THE  
GREAT LAKES. A MID LEVEL LOW WILL PINCH OFF FROM MID LEVEL  
SHORTWAVE ENERGY TO THE WEST OF TS JOSE AND RETROGRADE SOUTHWEST  
INTO THE SOUTHEAST US. THEN THERE ARE THE TWO TROPICAL CYCLONES  
OFF THE EAST COAST. RAIN CHANCES WILL PRIMARILY BE DRIVEN BY THE  
SEABREEZE FRONT AND PERHAPS ADDITIONAL WEAK FORCING BY THE MID  
LEVEL TROUGH. RAIN CHANCES ARE BETWEEN 30-40% EACH AFTERNOON.  
HIGHS WILL BE IN THE UPPER 80S AND LOWS IN THE LOWER 70S.  
 
   
LONG TERM [FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY]
 
 
A HIGH OVER LOW BLOCKING PATTERN WILL SET UP OVER THE WEEKEND  
WHICH WILL SLOW THE PROGRESS OF THE WESTERN US TROUGH AND HOLD FOR  
HURRICANE MARIA WHICH IS PROGGED TO MOVE NORTHWARD EAST OF THE  
EASTERN SEABOARD. THE BLOCKING PATTERN WILL BREAKDOWN MONDAY  
ALLOWING SHORTWAVE RIDGING TO BUILD IN TEMPORARILY AHEAD OF THE  
WESTERN US TROUGH. RAIN CHANCES SATURDAY WILL CONTINUE AT 30-40%  
BUT WILL DECREASE BEGINNING SUNDAY AS THE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS AND  
PWATS DECREASE. TEMPERATURES WILL SLOWLY INCREASE AS WELL, PERHAPS  
NEARING THE LOWER 90S BY WEDNESDAY.  
 
   
MARINE
 
 
LIGHT WINDS AND LOW SEAS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE END OF THE WORK  
WEEK. THIS WEEKEND, AS HURRICANE MARIA CROSSES THE BAHAMAS AND  
INTO THE GULF STREAM, EASTERLY WINDS WILL INCREASE AS A RESULT.  
EXPECT MODERATE WINDS AND SEAS BEGINNING SATURDAY.  
 
   
FIRE WEATHER
 
 
NO FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS ARE ANTICIPATED DURING THE NEXT FEW DAYS  
DUE TO HIGH RH VALUES AND LIGHT WINDS.  
 
   
HYDROLOGY
 
 
RAINFALL OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS WILL AVERAGE GENERALLY ONE HALF  
INCH OR LESS. THE SUWANNEE RIVER HAS CRESTED IN ACTION STAGE AND  
A SLOW FALL IS ANTICIPATED. THEREFORE, NO FLOODING CONCERNS ARE  
EXPECTED THIS PERIOD.  
 
   
SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT
 
 
SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT REQUESTED. HOWEVER, SPOTTERS ARE ALWAYS  
ENCOURAGED TO SAFELY REPORT SIGNIFICANT WEATHER CONDITIONS WHEN THEY  
OCCUR BY CALLING THE OFFICE OR TWEETING US @NWSTALLAHASSEE.  
 

 
   
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
 
 
TALLAHASSEE 91 72 89 71 88 / 40 20 40 20 30  
PANAMA CITY 85 74 87 73 86 / 30 10 40 20 40  
DOTHAN 90 70 90 70 87 / 30 20 30 20 30  
ALBANY 91 71 90 69 88 / 30 20 30 20 30  
VALDOSTA 90 70 88 69 87 / 30 30 40 20 30  
CROSS CITY 91 70 89 69 88 / 20 10 30 20 30  
APALACHICOLA 88 73 86 73 85 / 30 10 30 20 30  
 

 
   
TAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
 
 
FL...NONE.  
GA...NONE.  
AL...NONE.  
GM...NONE.  

 
 

 
 
NEAR TERM...LAHR  
SHORT TERM...SCHOLL  
LONG TERM...SCHOLL  
AVIATION...LAHR  
MARINE...SCHOLL  
FIRE WEATHER...LAHR  
HYDROLOGY...SCHOLL  
 
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