331  
FXUS62 KTAE 240108  
AFDTAE  
 
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION  
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL  
908 PM EDT SUN JUL 23 2017  
   
NEAR TERM [THROUGH TONIGHT]
 
 
ADJUSTED CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS SLIGHTLY UPWARD  
ACROSS NORTHERN FL (ESPECIALLY NEAR THE GULF COAST) THROUGH  
MONDAY MORNING, SINCE LATEST HIGH RESOLUTION MODELS ARE IN FAIRLY  
GOOD AGREEMENT REGARDING HIGH PRECIPITATION COVERAGE IN THIS AREA.  
PWAT VALUES INCREASING ABOVE 2" AND A LAND/SEA BREEZE NEAR THE  
COAST SHOULD SUPPORT THIS DEVELOPMENT. OTHERWISE, KEPT THE  
REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST LARGELY UNCHANGED. LOWS WILL RANGE FROM  
THE LOWER-MID 70S INLAND AND UPPER 70S ALONG THE COAST.  
 

 
   
PREV DISCUSSION [725 PM EDT]
 
 
   
SHORT TERM [MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT]
 
 
TWO DISTINCT +PV ANOMALIES WILL DOMINATE THE SYNOPTIC PATTERN ACROSS  
THE SOUTHEAST OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. THE FIRST, SEEN OVER THE  
GREAT LAKES REGION ON WV IMAGERY THIS AFTERNOON, WILL MOVE THROUGH  
THE NORTHERN OHIO VALLEY ON MONDAY AND THROUGH THE NORTHEAST ON  
TUESDAY. THE SECOND, CURRENTLY OVER EASTERN ID AND SOUTHERN MT, WILL  
MOVE THROUGH THE NORTHERN PLAINS AND MIDDLE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY  
BEFORE MERGING WITH SOME TRAILING PV FROM THE PREVIOUS SHORTWAVE AND  
STRENGTHENING OVER THE OHIO AND TENNESSEE VALLEYS LATE ON TUESDAY.  
AT THE SURFACE, A TROUGH WILL GRADUALLY WORK DEEPER INTO THE  
SOUTHEAST DOWN THE LEE SIDE OF THE APPALACHIANS RESULTANT FROM THE  
LEADING SHORTWAVE, LEE CYCLOGENESIS, AND THE SECONDARY STRENGTHENING  
SHORTWAVE.  
 
ON A SMALLER SCALE, LAND BREEZE CONVECTION WILL CONTINUE TO HAVE THE  
POTENTIAL TO BE MORE WIDESPREAD AND ROBUST THAN TYPICAL DUE TO  
ANOMALOUSLY HIGH MOISTURE ACROSS THE NE GULF AND N FLORIDA. THIS  
COULD RESULT IN A DISTURBED AFTERNOON SEABREEZE PATTERN ON MONDAY IF  
A CIRRUS CANOPY DEVELOPS AS IT DID ACROSS THE SE BIG BEND TODAY, OR  
IF THE LAND BREEZE CONVECTION MOVES QUICKLY INLAND OVER THE  
PANHANDLE UNDER THE WESTERLY FLOW REGIME. LATER IN THE DAY, STORMS  
THAT DEVELOP ALONG THE SURFACE TROUGH TO OUR NORTH AND WEST WILL  
DROP INTO SOUTHEAST ALABAMA AND SOUTHWEST GEORGIA. ESSENTIALLY,  
THE SAME SET-UP IS EXPECTED ON TUESDAY WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR THE  
STORMS ALONG THE SURFACE TROUGH TO PLAY A BIGGER ROLE ACROSS OUR  
AREA RATHER THAN LAND/SEA BREEZE ACTIVITY. HIGH TEMPERATURES EACH  
DAY ARE EXPECTED TO BE IN THE LOWER 90S, WHICH IS RIGHT AROUND  
NORMAL, WITH HEAT INDICES IN THE UPPER 90S.  
 
   
LONG TERM [WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY]
 
 
ON WEDNESDAY, A CLOSED LOW IS FORECAST TO DEVELOP OVER THE EASTERN  
SEABOARD AS THE ELONGATED +PV ANOMALY MOVES EAST OF THE APPALACHIANS  
INTO THE SOUTHEAST AND MID-ATLANTIC. THIS LOW WILL OPEN UP INTO THE  
MEAN NORTHERN STREAM FLOW AS A SHORTWAVE MOVES OUT OF THE GREAT  
LAKES AND INTO THE NORTHEAST ON THURSDAY. IN ITS WAKE, MULTIPLE  
SHORTWAVES WILL MERGE ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY AND RESULT IN A FAIRLY  
LARGE TROUGH DIGGING DEEP INTO THE SOUTHEAST OVER THE WEEKEND. IN  
GENERAL, POPS WILL REMAIN ABOVE AVERAGE FOR MOST OF THE PERIOD WITH  
HIGHS NEAR NORMAL.  
 
   
AVIATION [THROUGH 00Z TUESDAY]
 
 
VFR CONDITIONS TO PREVAIL AT ALL TAF SITES THROUGH LATE TONIGHT  
WITH ANY LINGERING SHRA DIMINISHING IN THE NEXT FEW HOURS. PATCHY  
FOG WILL YIELD MVFR VSBY AT TLH, ABY, AND VLD PRIOR TO DAYBREAK.  
SHRA AND TSRA WILL AFFECT ECP OVERNIGHT, PRIOR TO ACTIVITY  
DEVELOPING LATE MONDAY MORNING ACROSS THE FL PANHANDLE AND  
SPREADING INLAND MONDAY AFTERNOON. GUSTY WINDS AND PERIODS OF  
REDUCED VSBY AND CIGS WILL BE POSSIBLE IN AND AROUND ANY ACTIVITY.  
 
   
MARINE
 
 
MODERATE WESTERLY WINDS AND RELATIVELY LOW SEAS WILL PREVAIL OVER  
THE NEXT FEW DAYS. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE MOST LIKELY  
BETWEEN MIDNIGHT AND NOON AND ARE EXPECTED TO BE QUITE NUMEROUS.  
 
   
FIRE WEATHER
 
 
NO FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS ARE ANTICIPATED DUE TO HIGH RH VALUES AND  
LIGHT WINDS.  
 
   
HYDROLOGY
 
 
A WETTER THAN USUAL PATTERN WILL CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS.  
HOWEVER, STORMS ARE STILL EXPECTED TO BE SCATTERED IN NATURE. THUS,  
EXPECT WIDESPREAD AVERAGE RAIN AMOUNTS THROUGH THE WEEK ON THE ORDER  
OF 1-3 INCHES. LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS ARE POSSIBLE IN LOCATIONS  
RECEIVING STORMS EACH DAY. AT THIS TIME RIVER FLOODING IS NOT  
ANTICIPATED, WITH THE TYPICAL THREAT FOR ISOLATED URBAN FLOODING  
UNDER SLOW MOVING STORMS.  
 

 
   
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
 
 
TALLAHASSEE 74 89 74 90 75 / 40 60 20 60 30  
PANAMA CITY 78 87 78 87 77 / 60 60 50 60 30  
DOTHAN 74 89 73 88 73 / 20 60 30 70 40  
ALBANY 74 90 75 89 73 / 20 60 30 70 40  
VALDOSTA 73 90 75 90 75 / 20 60 20 60 30  
CROSS CITY 74 88 75 90 74 / 50 50 30 50 20  
APALACHICOLA 77 87 78 88 78 / 60 60 40 50 40  
 

 
   
TAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
 
 
FL...HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK UNTIL MIDNIGHT EDT /11 PM CDT/ TONIGHT FOR  
COASTAL GULF.  
 
GA...NONE.  
AL...NONE.  
GM...NONE.  
 

 
 

 
 
NEAR TERM...LAHR  
SHORT TERM...HARRIGAN  
LONG TERM...HARRIGAN  
AVIATION...PULLIN  
MARINE...HARRIGAN  
FIRE WEATHER...LAHR  
HYDROLOGY...HARRIGAN  
 
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.

The Nexlab FL Page
The Nexlab GA Page
The Nexlab AL Page Main Text Page