387  
FXUS62 KTAE 220718  
AFDTAE  
 
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION  
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL  
318 AM EDT SUN APR 22 2018  
   
NEAR TERM [THROUGH TODAY]
 
 
A +PV ANOMALY OUT OVER THE PLAINS THIS MORNING WILL MOVE INTO THE  
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY TODAY, PUSHING FORWARD A COLD FRONT TOWARD THE  
TRI-STATE AREA. SCATTERED SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE THROUGH THE  
MORNING, THEN INSTABILITY WILL INCREASE IN THE AFTERNOON, ALLOWING  
THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP. WINDS WITH THIS SYSTEM WILL BE STRONG,  
BOTH AT THE SURFACE AND ALOFT. MODELS ARE INDICATING 0-6 KM SHEAR  
THIS AFTERNOON WILL BE AROUND 50 KTS AND THAT 0-1 KM SHEAR WILL BE  
AROUND 20 KTS. MODELS ARE SHOWING MLCAPE AROUND 500-800 J/KG THIS  
AFTERNOON, WHICH IS ON THE LOW SIDE, BUT SHOULD STILL BE ENOUGH  
INSTABILITY ON TAP FOR A FEW STORMS THIS AFTERNOON TO DEVELOP  
STRONGER UPDRAFTS. WHEN COMBINED WITH THE SHEAR, THERE WILL BE THE  
POSSIBILITY OF DAMAGING WIND GUSTS WITH THESE STORMS, AND POSSIBLY  
AN ISOLATED TORNADO. SPC HAS OUTLINED THE AREA IN A MARGINAL RISK  
FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH TONIGHT.  
 
   
SHORT TERM [TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY]
 
 
IN THE UPPER LEVELS A CLOSED LOW WILL BE OVER THE SOUTHEAST. AT THE  
SURFACE A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH TONIGHT. A FEW STRONG TO  
SEVERE STORMS ARE POSSIBLE TONIGHT. DEW POINTS ARE FORECAST TO BE  
FAIRLY LOW IN THE 60S. MODEL GUIDANCE IS SOMEWHAT SPLIT ABOUT CAPE  
BEING DECENT OR LOW. DEEP LAYER SHEAR WILL BE 40 TO 50 KNOTS. A LINE  
OF STORMS WILL FORM AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT AND MOVE THROUGH  
TONIGHT. THE MAIN THREAT WILL BE DAMAGING WINDS IF STORMS ARE ABLE  
TO ORGANIZE.  
 
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL LINGER ON MONDAY SINCE WRAP AROUND  
MOISTURE WILL BE SLOW TO MOVE OUT. POPS WILL BE MUCH LOWER ON MONDAY  
NIGHT AND TUESDAY WITH ONLY A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR RAIN. CLOUD COVER  
WILL ALSO BE SLOW TO MOVE OUT AS WRAP AROUND MOISTURE REMAINS. HIGHS  
WILL BE MAINLY IN THE UPPER 70S. LOWS WILL BE IN THE UPPER 50S AND  
LOWER 60S.  
 
   
LONG TERM [TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY]
 
 
IN THE UPPER LEVELS A TROUGH WILL BE OVER THE SOUTHEAST WITH A FEW  
MAJOR SHORTWAVES MOVING THROUGH THE PATTERN THIS WEEK. AT THE  
SURFACE A LOW WILL MOVE OUT WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. A WEAK DISTURBANCE  
WILL MOVE THROUGH ON THURSDAY. THE BEST CHANCE FOR RAIN LATE THIS  
WEEK WILL BE THURSDAY WITH POPS OF 30 PERCENT. ANOTHER COLD FRONT IS  
POSSIBLE ON SATURDAY BUT RAIN CHANCES LOOK LOW AT THIS TIME. LOWS  
WILL BE IN THE 50S. HIGHS WILL BE IN THE 70S.  
 

 
   
AVIATION [THROUGH 06Z MONDAY]
 
 
STRONG EASTERLY WINDS WILL BECOME SOUTHEASTERLY THIS AFTERNOON AS A  
COLD FRONT PUSHES TOWARD THE AREA. MVFR CIGS ARE MOSTLY AFFECTING  
OUR SOUTHEAST AL SITES AT THE MOMENT, BUT ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP  
ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH THE PERIOD AND MAY DROP TO IFR NEAR ECP  
AND DHN AROUND SUNRISE. CONDITIONS MAY DETERIORATE FURTHER LATE THIS  
MORNING AND THIS AFTERNOON AS STORMS MOVE INTO THE AREA AHEAD OF THE  
FRONT.  
 

 
   
MARINE
 
 
STRONG EASTERLY WINDS WILL DECREASE AND BECOME SOUTHERLY THIS  
AFTERNOON. A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL EARLY THIS  
AFTERNOON. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE LIKELY THIS AFTERNOON  
THROUGH MONDAY EVENING.  
 

 
   
FIRE WEATHER
 
 
ELEVATED TRANSPORT AND 20 FOOT WINDS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH MONDAY,  
FINALLY LOWERING MONDAY EVENING. AS MIXING HEIGHTS INCREASE MONDAY  
IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT, DISPERSIONS WILL RISE ABOVE 75 IN THE FL  
PANHANDLE AND POSSIBLY THE WESTERN BIG BEND AS WELL. OTHERWISE, RH  
VALUES WILL REMAIN ABOVE CRITICAL THRESHOLDS AND NO RED FLAG  
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS.  
 

 
   
HYDROLOGY
 
 
MOST LOCAL RIVERS ARE CURRENTLY BELOW ACTION STAGE. RAIN IS EXPECTED  
THIS MORNING THROUGH MONDAY EVENING. RAIN WILL BE MODERATE TO HEAVY  
AT TIMES. 1 TO 2.5 INCHES OF RAIN IS FORECAST FOR MOST LOCATIONS  
WITH HIGHER TOTALS POSSIBLE PARTICULARLY IN SE ALABAMA AND SW  
GEORGIA. THE TYPICAL FLOODING OF LOW LYING AREAS AND PONDING OF  
WATER ON ROADWAYS IS POSSIBLE.  
 

 
   
SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT
 
 
SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT REQUESTED. HOWEVER, SPOTTERS ARE ALWAYS  
ENCOURAGED TO SAFELY REPORT SIGNIFICANT WEATHER CONDITIONS WHEN THEY  
OCCUR BY CALLING THE OFFICE OR TWEETING US @NWSTALLAHASSEE.  
 

 
   
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
 
 
TALLAHASSEE 78 64 80 58 78 / 50 70 60 10 20  
PANAMA CITY 75 66 75 62 75 / 50 70 30 0 10  
DOTHAN 77 63 80 58 76 / 80 80 30 0 20  
ALBANY 76 63 79 58 76 / 80 90 70 10 20  
VALDOSTA 76 62 79 59 78 / 60 70 70 10 20  
CROSS CITY 81 66 80 61 78 / 50 40 60 20 10  
APALACHICOLA 74 67 77 63 75 / 30 60 50 10 20  
 

 
   
TAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
 
 
FL...NONE.  
GA...NONE.  
AL...NONE.  
GM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 2 PM EDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR COASTAL  
WATERS FROM OCHLOCKONEE RIVER TO APALACHICOLA FL OUT TO 20  
NM-COASTAL WATERS FROM MEXICO BEACH TO APALACHICOLA FL OUT  
20 NM-COASTAL WATERS FROM MEXICO BEACH TO OKALOOSA WALTON  
COUNTY LINE FL OUT 20 NM-WATERS FROM SUWANNEE RIVER TO  
APALACHICOLA FL FROM 20 TO 60 NM-WATERS FROM APALACHICOLA  
TO MEXICO BEACH FL FROM 20 TO 60 NM-WATERS FROM MEXICO  
BEACH TO OKALOOSA WALTON COUNTY LINE FL FROM 20 TO 60 NM.  
 

 
 

 
 
NEAR TERM...NGUYEN  
SHORT TERM...MCD  
LONG TERM...MCD  
AVIATION...NGUYEN  
MARINE...MCD  
FIRE WEATHER...NGUYEN  
HYDROLOGY...MCD  
 
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