793
FXUS62 KTAE 091444
AFDTAE
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL
1044 AM EDT SAT AUG 9 2025
..NEW UPDATE
UPDATE
ISSUED AT 1039 AM EDT SAT AUG 9 2025
VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS EXTENSIVE STRATUS IN PLACE ACROSS
THE REGION, THOUGH IT IS BEGINNING TO SHOW SOME BREAKS. THE NE
FLOW, MUCH LIKE YESTERDAY ALONG WITH THE STRATUS THIS MORNING IS
AN INHIBITING FACTOR FOR EARLY STORM DEVELOPMENT. THE CONVECTION
OFFSHORE IS ALSO SPREADING SOME CIRRUS DEBRIS CLOUDINESS OVER THE
FLORIDA PANHANDLE, SO THIS WILL ALSO DELAY THE WARMUP IN THOSE
AREAS. ONE SPOT WHERE WE'RE WARMING QUICKLY IS ACROSS NE FLORIDA
AND INTO THE FL BIG BEND AND THIS ALIGNS WITH THE MORE FAVORED
AREA FOR STORMS DEVELOPING LATER THIS AFTERNOON. BASED ON THE
LATEST GUIDANCE AND OBSERVATIONAL TRENDS, DELAYED PRECIP ONSET BY
A COUPLE OF HOURS AND ADJUSTED POPS SLIGHTLY TO SHOW LOWER VALUES
FURTHER WEST. THERE IS SOME POTENTIAL FOR LOCALIZED FLOODING,
ESPECIALLY IN THE SE FLORIDA BIG BEND AND FAR SOUTH CENTRAL
GEORGIA, AND THIS IS ALL COVERED WELL IN THE PREVIOUS FORECAST
PACKAGE. OVERALL, THE TEMP FORECAST IS ON TRACK WITH YET ANOTHER
SUB-90 DEGREE DAY ANTICIPATED FOR MUCH OF THE REGION.
NEAR TERM
(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 153 AM EDT SAT AUG 9 2025
A WEAK TROPICAL WAVE WILL SLOWLY SHIFT WESTWARD ACROSS THE EASTERN
GULF TODAY. MOIST EASTERLY TO SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW WILL ADVECT
DEEPER MOISTURE ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA COMPARED TO YESTERDAY
WITH PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES RISING TO BETWEEN 2 AND 2.5 INCHES
BY THE END OF THE DAY, HIGHEST ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST BIG BEND.
THESE FACTORS ARE EXPECTED TO RESULT IN A GREATER COVERAGE OF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON. POPS ARE
EXPECTED TO RANGE FROM AROUND 50 PERCENT ACROSS SOUTHEAST ALABAMA
TO AROUND 90 PERCENT ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST BIG BEND. LOCALIZED
POCKETS OF HEAVY RAIN WITH ISOLATED FLOODING COULD OCCUR. HIGH
TEMPERATURES WILL GENERALLY RANGE FROM THE MID 80S TO NEAR 90 WITH
OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE LOW TO MID 70S.
SHORT TERM
(SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 153 AM EDT SAT AUG 9 2025
THERE ARE NO MAJOR CHANGES FROM THE PREVIOUS FORECAST.
SOUTHEASTERLY TO SOUTHERLY FLOW ON SUNDAY IS EXPECTED TO LEAD TO
HIGHER PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES AND HIGHER RAIN CHANCE AREAWIDE
WITH A TROPICAL WAVE IN THE NORTHEAST GULF. LOCALIZED POCKETS OF
HEAVY RAIN AND ISOLATED FLASH FLOODING ARE POSSIBLE. WITH THE
INCREASE IN CONVECTIVE COVERAGE, HIGH TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO
BE HELD DOWN IN THE MID TO UPPER 80S. A SIMILAR SCENARIO IS
EXPECTED FOR MONDAY.
LONG TERM
(TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 153 AM EDT SAT AUG 9 2025
THERE ARE NO MAJOR CHANGES FROM THE PREVIOUS FORECAST. A GRADUAL
DECREASE IN DEEP LAYER MOISTURE IS EXPECTED BY TUESDAY AS THE
TROPICAL WAVE DISSIPATES AND DEEP LAYER RIDGING BEGINS TO BUILD
ACROSS THE SOUTHEASTERN US. WHILE WE'LL STILL BE IN LOW LEVEL
SOUTHERLY FLOW DURING THE LONG TERM PERIOD, THE ABSENCE OF ANY
SURFACE TROUGHING TO INITIATE CONVECTION OVER THE GULF IN THE
MORNING HOURS WILL ALLOW FOR A RETURN TO A TYPICAL SEA BREEZE
CIRCULATION EACH AFTERNOON. IN SOUTHERLY FLOW, THE CONVECTIVE
PATTERN TENDS TO FAVOR HIGHER POPS IN NORTH FLORIDA, PARTICULARLY
THE FLORIDA BIG BEND AND INTO SOUTH CENTRAL GEORGIA.
THE BUILDING UPPER LEVEL RIDGE AND DECREASE IN RAIN CHANCES ARE
EXPECTED TO LEAD TO A RETURN OF ABOVE NORMAL AFTERNOON HIGH
TEMPERATURES AND HIGH HEAT INDICES. WE MAY BE NEAR THE LOCAL HEAT
ADVISORY CRITERIA OF 108F HEAT INDEX VALUES BY THE MIDDLE TO
LATTER PART OF THE WEEK.
AVIATION
(12Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 656 AM EDT SAT AUG 9 2025
LOW-LEVEL EASTERLY FLOW WILL PREVAIL FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS. AT 11Z
SATURDAY, A LARGE ARE OF BKN-OVC STRATUS WITH CIGS IN THE 008-015 RANGE
WERE SPREADING WESTWARD ACROSS SOUTH GEORGIA, SOUTHEAST ALABAMA,
AND THE FL BIG BEND, AFFECTING ALL TERMINALS IN THE NEXT FEW
HOURS.
THEN WE WILL FACE THE CHALLENGE OF AFTERNOON CONVECTION. COVERAGE
WILL BE GREATEST IN RICHER MOISTURE OVER THE FL BIG BEND, WITH
HIGH ENOUGH CONFIDENCE AT TLH TO INCLUDE A TEMPO GROUP FOR
THUNDER. ELSEWHERE, CONFIDENCE IS ONLY HIGH ENOUGH FOR VCTS
MENTIONS.
IN FAVORABLE EASTERLY FLOW, MORE STRATUS WILL EASILY SPREAD ACROSS
ALL TERMINALS.
MARINE
ISSUED AT 153 AM EDT SAT AUG 9 2025
WITH THE PASSAGE OF A TROPICAL WAVE ACROSS THE MARINE WATERS THIS
WEEKEND, EXPECT NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS, ESPECIALLY
DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. WINDS WILL SHIFT TO SOUTHERLY LATE IN
THE WEEKEND WITH RAIN CHANCES DECREASING EARLY NEXT WEEK AS HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN US.
FIRE WEATHER
ISSUED AT 153 AM EDT SAT AUG 9 2025
LOW FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS ARE EXPECTED FOR THE NEXT FEW DAYS WITH
MOIST CONDITIONS AND INCREASING RAIN CHANCES. THE WETTEST LOCATIONS
WILL LIKELY BE ACROSS THE FLORIDA BIG BEND WITH LOWER RAIN CHANCES
ACROSS SOUTHEAST ALABAMA.
HYDROLOGY
ISSUED AT 153 AM EDT SAT AUG 9 2025
LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL AND ISOLATED FLASH FLOODING ARE POSSIBLE
OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS. THE MAIN AREA TO WATCH TODAY IS ACROSS
THE SOUTHEAST BIG BEND AND ADJACENT SOUTH-CENTRAL GEORGIA. THE
THREAT SHIFTS TO MORE OF THE ENTIRE REGION BY SUNDAY AS SOUTHERLY
FLOW IN A VERY MOIST ENVIRONMENT RETURNS. THE THREAT ISN'T AS
SIGNIFICANT AS EARLIER THIS WEEK, BUT WITH RECENT WET CONDITIONS,
THERE IS SOME CONCERN FOR LOCALIZED FLASH FLOODING THROUGH MONDAY.
SOME SMALLER RIVERS AND STREAMS ARE RUNNING ABOVE NORMAL FLOWS WITH
A COUPLE IN ACTION STAGE, BUT MOST HAVE CRESTED AFTER LAST WEEK'S
RAINFALL. AT THIS TIME, THERE IS NO EXPECTATION OF ANY RIVER POINTS
REACHING FLOOD STAGE.
SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT
SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT REQUESTED. HOWEVER, SPOTTERS ARE ALWAYS
ENCOURAGED TO SAFELY REPORT SIGNIFICANT WEATHER CONDITIONS WHEN THEY
OCCUR BY CALLING THE OFFICE OR TWEETING US @NWSTALLAHASSEE.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
TALLAHASSEE 87 74 87 74 / 70 60 80 40
PANAMA CITY 89 75 89 75 / 50 40 80 50
DOTHAN 86 73 87 73 / 50 40 60 20
ALBANY 86 73 87 74 / 50 40 70 30
VALDOSTA 86 73 88 73 / 70 50 80 40
CROSS CITY 90 73 90 73 / 80 70 90 60
APALACHICOLA 86 76 86 77 / 60 60 90 70
TAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
FL...NONE.
GA...NONE.
AL...NONE.
GM...NONE.
UPDATE...GODSEY
NEAR TERM...DVD
SHORT TERM...DVD
LONG TERM....DVD
AVIATION...HANER
MARINE...DVD
FIRE WEATHER...DVD
HYDROLOGY...DVD
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