888  
FXUS62 KTAE 200753  
AFDTAE  
 
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION  
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL  
253 AM EST TUE FEB 20 2018  
   
NEAR TERM [THROUGH TODAY]
 
 
A 06Z SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWS A COLD FRONT STRETCHING FROM SOUTHERN  
WI DOWN THE MIDDLE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY AND INTO THE SOUTHERN PLAINS.  
THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH FUELING THIS SYSTEM STRETCHES ACROSS THE  
WESTERN CONUS, WITH OUR AREA STILL UNDER THE WESTERN SIDE OF DEEP  
LAYER RIDGING. WINDS FROM THE SOUTHEAST TODAY WILL CONTINUE TO BRING  
WARM, MOIST GULF AIR TO THE AREA, ALLOWING LOW CLOUDS AND PATCHY FOG  
TO STICK AROUND THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS. AS THE FRONT PUSHES  
FURTHER SOUTHEAST TOWARDS THE AREA, THERE WILL BE A SLIGHT CHANCE  
FOR LIGHT RAIN THIS AFTERNOON. THE HIGHEST CHANCES WILL BE IN  
SOUTHEAST ALABAMA AND THE WESTERN FLORIDA PANHANDLE.  
   
SHORT TERM [TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY]
 
 
DEEP LAYER RIDGING CENTERED OVER THE ATLANTIC WILL ALLOW THE WARM  
AND HUMID CONDITIONS TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE SHORT TERM. A FEW  
SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE TUESDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY WEDNESDAY BUT  
PRECIPITATION CHANCES ARE LIMITED TO 30 PERCENT OR LESS. DEEP  
LAYER MOISTURE DECREASES ON THURSDAY AS SOUTHERLY WINDS BECOME  
MORE WESTERLY AT THE UPPER LEVELS AND PRECIPITATION CHANCES  
DECREASE FOR THE END OF THE SHORT TERM. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN  
WELL ABOVE AVERAGE WITH HIGHS IN THE LOW TO MID 80S (AROUND 15  
DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL) AND LOWS IN THE MID 60S (AROUND 20 DEGREES  
ABOVE NORMAL). THESE VALUES ARE MORE TYPICAL FOR LATE APRIL  
(HIGHS) TO MAY (LOWS). FORECAST HIGHS ARE EXPECTED TO BREAK THE  
RECORD HIGHS OF 82 DEGREES AT TLH WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY.  
   
LONG TERM [THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY]
 
 
THE PATTERN WITH HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE ATLANTIC WILL CONTINUE  
INTO THE LONG TERM. RAIN CHANCES WILL BE MINIMAL FOR FRIDAY INTO  
SATURDAY BUT A WEAKENING COLD FRONT WILL PUSH INTO THE CWA ON  
SUNDAY AND PROVIDE FOR THE BEST CHANCE OF WIDESPREAD RAIN ACROSS  
THE AREA OVER THE NEXT WEEK. POPS WILL INCREASE INTO THE 20-40  
PERCENT RANGE WITH THE FRONT. ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL  
CONTINUE FOR THE LONG TERM.  
 

 
   
AVIATION [THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY]
 
 
IFR CIGS AND MVFR-IFR VSBYS WILL BEGIN TO SETTLE IN OVER THE AREA  
OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS AND ARE EXPECTED TO HANG IN THROUGH MOST OF  
THE MORNING, WITH CIGS BEGINNING TO LIFT TO MVFR AROUND 15Z, THEN  
RETURNING TO VFR IN THE EARLY AFTERNOON (AROUND 17-20Z).  
WINDS WILL BE LIGHT AND FROM THE SOUTHEAST.  
 

 
   
MARINE
 
 
EXERCISE CAUTION CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE WATERS WEST OF  
APALACHICOLA TODAY. AFTER THIS, SOUTHEAST TO EAST WINDS WILL  
REMAIN 10 TO 15 KNOTS THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK.  
 

 
   
FIRE WEATHER
 
 
RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES WILL REMAIN ABOVE CRITICAL THRESHOLDS  
THROUGH THE PERIOD. NO RED FLAG CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST.  
 

 
   
HYDROLOGY
 
 
WHILE THERE ARE LOW END CHANCES OF PRECIPITATION IN THE FORECAST,  
RAINFALL AMOUNTS OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS WILL BE MINIMAL. THE  
CHOCTAWHATCHEE RIVER AT BRUCE HAS FALLEN INTO ACTION STAGE THIS  
MORNING AND THUS ALL THE LOCAL RIVERS HAVE FALLEN BELOW FLOOD  
STAGE.  
 

 
   
SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT
 
 
SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT REQUESTED. HOWEVER, SPOTTERS ARE ALWAYS  
ENCOURAGED TO SAFELY REPORT SIGNIFICANT WEATHER CONDITIONS WHEN THEY  
OCCUR BY CALLING THE OFFICE OR TWEETING US @NWSTALLAHASSEE.  
 

 
   
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
 
 
TALLAHASSEE 82 65 84 63 83 / 10 10 10 0 0  
PANAMA CITY 78 66 79 65 79 / 10 20 10 0 0  
DOTHAN 81 65 82 63 83 / 30 30 20 0 0  
ALBANY 82 66 83 63 83 / 20 20 20 0 0  
VALDOSTA 83 66 84 64 83 / 10 20 10 0 0  
CROSS CITY 84 66 85 62 83 / 10 10 10 0 0  
APALACHICOLA 76 66 78 65 77 / 10 10 10 0 0  
 

 
   
TAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
 
 
FL...NONE.  
GA...NONE.  
AL...NONE.  
GM...NONE.  

 
 

 
 
NEAR TERM...NGUYEN  
SHORT TERM...FIEUX  
LONG TERM...FIEUX  
AVIATION...NGUYEN  
MARINE...FIEUX  
FIRE WEATHER...NGUYEN  
HYDROLOGY...FIEUX  
 
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