528  
FXUS62 KTAE 300035  
AFDTAE  
 
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION  
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL  
835 PM EDT MON MAY 29 2017  
   
UPDATE
 
 
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED CONVECTION LOOKS LIKE IT WILL REMAIN NORTH  
OF THE AREA FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE EVENING HOURS. GUIDANCE  
INDICATES THAT SOME FOG IS POSSIBLE LATE TONIGHT, ALTHOUGH SOME  
CLOUDS MAY TEND TO KEEP THE FOG ON THE PATCHY SIDE.  
 

 
   
PREV DISCUSSION [751 PM EDT]
 
 
   
NEAR TERM [THROUGH TONIGHT]
 
 
LATEST VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS A DECREASE IN THE HIGH CLOUDS  
ACROSS THE TRI-STATE AREA AND WITH DAYTIME HEATING, CU HAS BEGUN TO  
DEVELOP. A FEW SHOWERS CAN BE NOTED ALREADY ON RADAR ACROSS THE  
FLORIDA PANHANDLE AND SOUTHEAST ALABAMA. WITH DAYTIME HEATING AND  
2000-3500 J/KG SBCAPE ANALYZED ON THE SPC MESOANALYSIS, DO EXPECT  
THUNDERSTORMS LATER THIS AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING. A STRONG TO  
SEVERE STORM STILL CANNOT BE RULED OUT WITH THE BETTER CHANCES  
ACROSS SOUTHEAST ALABAMA AND SOUTHWEST GEORGIA. AFTERNOON ACTIVITY  
WILL DIMINISH THIS EVENING BUT ADDITIONAL CONVECTION WILL PUSH INTO  
THE WESTERN PORTION OF THE CWA EARLY TUESDAY MORNING AHEAD OF A  
SHORTWAVE MOVING ALONG THE GULF COAST.  
 
LOWS TONIGHT WILL REMAIN ABOVE AVERAGE WITH LOWS IN THE LOWER 70S  
INLAND TO MID 70S ALONG THE COAST.  
 
   
SHORT TERM [TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT]
 
 
A STAGNANT UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER THE HUDSON BAY WILL DRIVE THE  
WEATHER ACROSS THE EASTERN U.S. FOR MUCH OF THE NEXT WEEK. A SERIES  
OF SHORTWAVES OF VARYING INTENSITY WILL ROTATE AROUND THE PERIPHERY  
OF THIS LOW, LIKELY REMAINING NORTH OF THE AREA. HIGH PRESSURE WILL  
REMAIN CENTERED OFF TO THE WEST, WITH SOUTHERLY FLOW CONTINUING TO  
ADVECT WARM, MOIST AIR INTO THE REGION THROUGH THE PERIOD. THOUGH  
THERE WILL BE LITTLE IN THE WAY OF FORCING, SCATTERED SHOWERS AND  
THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED EACH DAY, WITH POPS GENERALLY IN THE 20  
TO 40% RANGE. EVEN WITH INCREASE CLOUD COVER, HOT AND HUMID  
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD. AFTERNOON HIGHS WILL  
RANGE FROM THE UPPER 80S TO LOW 90S, WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE 60S.  
 
   
LONG TERM [THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY]
 
 
ACTIVE WEATHER WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE LONG TERM PERIOD AS THE  
AFOREMENTIONED UPPER LOW WILL REMAIN IN PLACE ACROSS EASTERN  
CANADA. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN CENTERED EAST OF THE  
AREA, CONTINUING TO ADVECT MOISTURE INTO THE REGION, FUELING  
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK. THERE  
REMAINS A STRONG SIGNAL IN GUIDANCE IN A BROAD SHORTWAVE TROUGH IN  
THE SOUTHERN STREAM OF THE JET PULLING ABUNDANT MOISTURE INTO THE  
REGION BY THE LATTER PART OF THE WEEK AND INTO THE WEEKEND. THIS  
WILL YIELD INCREASE RAIN CHANCES ACROSS THE ENTIRE REGION DURING  
THIS TIME FRAME. AFTERNOON HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL GENERALLY RUN IN  
THE UPPER 80S TO LOW 90S AND OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE UPPER 60S AND  
LOWER 70S.  
 
   
AVIATION [THROUGH 00Z WEDNESDAY]
 
 
IFR TO LIFR CIGS MAY DEVELOP OVERNIGHT WITH GUIDANCE SHOWING THE  
BEST CHANCES AT ECP, TLH AND VLD. THESE SAME LOCATIONS MAY ALSO  
EXPERIENCE MVFR TO IFR VSBYS IN FOG. ALL LOCATIONS RETURN TO VFR  
SHORTLY AFTER SUNRISE WITH A CHANCE OF AN AFTERNOON SHOWER OR  
THUNDERSTORM. THE BEST CHANCE FOR SEEING ANY CONVECTION WILL BE AT  
DHN AND ABY.  
 
   
MARINE
 
 
GENERALLY WEST TO SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS BETWEEN 10 AND 15 KNOTS WILL  
PREVAIL EACH AFTERNOON WITH SEAS OF 1 TO 3 FEET. WIND AND CHOP WILL  
BE LOCALLY HIGHER NEAR THE COAST WITH THE DEVELOPMENT OF THE DAILY  
SEABREEZE. CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL INCREASE BY  
LATE WEEK.  
 
   
FIRE WEATHER
 
 
VERY LIGHT TRANSPORT WINDS WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON MAY LEAD TO  
CRITICALLY LOW AFTERNOON DISPERSION VALUES. OTHERWISE, THERE ARE NO  
OTHER FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS AT THIS TIME.  
 
   
HYDROLOGY
 
 
SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY WILL REMAIN SCATTERED THROUGH AT  
LEAST THURSDAY. FLOODING IS NOT EXPECTED WITH ANY OF THIS ACTIVITY  
GIVEN THE CURRENT RIVER AND STREAM LEVELS ACROSS THE REGION. MORE  
WIDESPREAD RAIN CHANCES WILL BE POSSIBLE LATE THIS WEEK AND INTO THE  
WEEKEND.  
 

 
   
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
 
 
TALLAHASSEE 71 90 68 91 70 / 10 20 10 20 10  
PANAMA CITY 74 83 72 89 73 / 10 20 10 20 10  
DOTHAN 71 85 68 89 70 / 10 40 10 20 10  
ALBANY 71 87 69 89 70 / 10 30 20 20 10  
VALDOSTA 71 91 69 91 70 / 10 20 20 30 10  
CROSS CITY 71 92 69 92 70 / 0 10 10 20 10  
APALACHICOLA 73 86 71 87 72 / 10 10 10 10 0  
 

 
   
TAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
 
 
FL...NONE.  
GA...NONE.  
AL...NONE.  
GM...NONE.  
 

 
 

 
 
UPDATE...DVD  
NEAR TERM...FIEUX  
SHORT TERM...PULLIN  
LONG TERM...PULLIN  
AVIATION...BARRY  
MARINE...PULLIN  
FIRE WEATHER...BARRY  
HYDROLOGY...PULLIN  
 
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