033  
FXUS62 KTAE 150108  
AFDTAE  
 
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION  
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL  
908 PM EDT TUE AUG 14 2018  
   
NEAR TERM [THROUGH TONIGHT]
 
 
ANOTHER ACTIVE DAY FOR CONVECTION. STORMS WERE SLOW MOVERS ONCE  
AGAIN WITH THE WEAK STEERING FLOW SO SOME LOCATIONS RECEIVED A FEW  
INCHES OF RAIN IN A SHORT TIME. MOST OF THE SHOWERS AND  
THUNDERSTORMS THAT REMAIN LATE THIS EVENING WERE ACROSS OUR  
NORTHERN TIER GEORGIA ZONES BUT THEY SHOULD DIMINISH BY MIDNIGHT.  
 

 
   
PREV DISCUSSION [820 PM EDT]
 
 
   
SHORT TERM [WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT]
 
 
A BREAK IN THE RIDGE WILL DEVELOP LATER WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY  
NIGHT AS A SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVES INTO THE OHIO VALLEY AND MID  
SOUTH. A WEAK SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL REMAIN IN PLACE WITH  
OVERALL SOUTHERLY WIND DIRECTION PUMPING IN GULF MOISTURE. PWATS  
THIS PERIOD WILL REMAIN AROUND 2 INCHES. EXPECT SEABREEZE SHOWERS  
AND THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE FLORIDA COUNTIES THEN MOVE  
NORTHWARD WITH TIME. CONVECTION WILL DECREASE IN THE EVENING HOURS  
WITH MOSTLY DRY CONDITIONS IN THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. HIGHS WILL BE  
IN THE LOWER 90S AND LOWS IN THE MID 70S.  
 
   
LONG TERM [FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY]
 
 
THE UPSTREAM TROUGH WILL SLOWLY MOVE THROUGH THE SOUTHEAST AND  
AFFECT OUR WEATHER FRIDAY AND SATURDAY WITH ABOVE NORMAL RAIN  
CHANCES ACROSS OUR NORTHERN SECTIONS IN CLOSER PROXIMITY TO THE  
TROUGH. FURTHER SOUTH, SLIGHTLY LOWER POP CHANCES WITH LESS UPPER  
SUPPORT BUT THE SEABREEZE WILL BE ACTIVE REGARDLESS. BEGINNING  
SUNDAY THE TROUGH LIFTS NORTHEASTWARD AND RIDGING BUILDS IN WITH  
DECREASING RAIN CHANCES HEADING INTO THE NEXT WORK WEEK. HIGHS  
WILL BE AROUND 90 THROUGH THE WEEKEND THEN LOWER 90S TO START NEXT  
WEEK.  
 
   
AVIATION [THROUGH 00Z THURSDAY]
 
 
THE INTENSITY AND COVERAGE OF SHOWERS AND STORMS ARE BEGINNING TO  
WIND DOWN THIS EVENING, WITH ONLY TLH AND ABY THREATENED BY STORMS  
OVER THE NEXT HOUR OR TWO. EXPECT IFR/LIFR RESTRICTIONS NEAR  
MORNING AT VLD, ABY, AND DHN. OTHERWISE, VFR WILL PREVAIL OUTSIDE  
OF STORMS THROUGH THE TAF. NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND STORMS ARE  
EXPECTED ONCE AGAIN TOMORROW AFTERNOON.  
 
   
MARINE
 
 
LIGHT SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST WINDS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THIS WEEKEND.  
SEAS WILL BE LOW AROUND 1 TO 2 FEET. THE WET PATTERN CONTINUES  
THROUGH THE WEEKEND. EXPECT ERRATIC WINDS AND SEAS IN AND AROUND  
THUNDERSTORMS.  
 
   
FIRE WEATHER
 
 
AFTERNOON DISPERSION VALUES MAY BE AT OR BELOW CRITICAL LEVELS WEDNESDAY  
AFTERNOON OVER PORTIONS OF THE TRI-STATE AREA. OTHERWISE, THERE ARE NO  
OTHER FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS.  
 
   
HYDROLOGY
 
 
MOST RIVERS IN ACTION STAGE WILL CONTINUE TO FALL AND BE OUT OF  
ACTION STAGE IN A FEW DAYS. RAINFALL AMOUNTS DONT LOOK OVERLY  
IMPRESSIVE WITH GENERALLY UP TO 1.25 INCHES. HOWEVER, SLOWER  
MOVING STORMS CAN PRODUCE LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS.  
 
   
SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT
 
 
SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT REQUESTED. HOWEVER, SPOTTERS ARE ALWAYS  
ENCOURAGED TO SAFELY REPORT SIGNIFICANT WEATHER CONDITIONS WHEN THEY  
OCCUR BY CALLING THE OFFICE OR TWEETING US @NWSTALLAHASSEE.  
 

 
   
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
 
 
TALLAHASSEE 73 90 73 91 74 / 30 60 10 30 10  
PANAMA CITY 75 89 75 89 76 / 40 50 20 40 20  
DOTHAN 73 91 73 89 73 / 20 50 20 50 20  
ALBANY 74 92 73 91 73 / 30 50 20 40 20  
VALDOSTA 72 91 73 91 73 / 40 50 20 40 20  
CROSS CITY 74 91 74 91 74 / 20 40 20 30 10  
APALACHICOLA 77 88 77 88 77 / 40 50 20 30 10  
 

 
   
TAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
 
 
FL...NONE.  
GA...NONE.  
AL...NONE.  
GM...NONE.  

 
 

 
 
NEAR TERM...BARRY  
SHORT TERM...SCHOLL  
LONG TERM...SCHOLL  
AVIATION...HARRIGAN  
MARINE...SCHOLL  
FIRE WEATHER...BARRY  
HYDROLOGY...SCHOLL  
 
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