426
FXUS62 KTAE 071419
AFDTAE
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL
919 AM EST SAT NOV 7 2009
DISCUSSION
THE 13 UTC REGIONAL SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWED A HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE
FROM CAPE HATTERAS NC TO EAST TX. VAPOR IMAGERY AND UPPER AIR DATA
SHOWED RIDGING OVER THE SOUTHEAST. THE 12 UTC KTAE SOUNDING SHOWED
A TEN-FOLD INCREASE IN PRECIP WATER OVER 24 HOURS AGO...WHICH IS
UNUSUAL GIVEN THAT THERE HAS BEEN LITTLE CHANGE IN THE WEATHER
PATTERN. THE UPSTREAM OB AT KJAX DID NOT INDICATE SUCH A MOISTURE
INCREASE...SO WE THINK THERE WAS A BAD HUMIDITY SENSOR ON OURS.
THE EARLY MORNING FORECAST PACKAGE APPEARS TO BE ON TRACK AND NO
MAJOR CHANGES WILL BE NEEDED.
AVIATION
VFR CONDITIONS WILL GENERALLY PREVAIL THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD.
AREAS OF SMOKE DURING THE EARLY MORNING HOURS AROUND KTLH HAVE
LIFTED WITH UNRESTRICTED VISIBILITIES NOW BEING OBSERVED. WILL
CHECK IN ON THE PROGRESS OF THE PRESCRIBED BURN RESPONSIBLE FOR
THE SMOKE THE PAST FEW NIGHTS...HOWEVER PILOTS SHOULD ANTICIPATE
SOME MINOR LOW LEVEL VIS RESTRICTIONS AFTER SUNSET THIS EVENING IF
THE BURN IS CONTINUED INTO THIS AFTERNOON. HIGH AND LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE RETURNING SUNDAY INTO MONDAY WILL RESULT IN AN INCREASE
OF HIGH LEVEL CIRRUS AND ALSO THE RE-DEVELOPMENT OF SCT AFTERNOON
CU FIELDS.
TAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
AL...NONE.
GA...NONE.
FL...NONE.
GM...NONE.
AVIATION...MROCZKA
REST OF DISCUSSION...FOURNIER
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