417  
FXUS62 KTAE 221944  
AFDTAE  
 
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION  
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL  
244 PM EST WED NOV 22 2017  
   
NEAR TERM [THROUGH TONIGHT]
 
 
A DEEPENING SURFACE LOW SLIDING EAST THROUGH THE GULF WILL INTERACT  
WITH A BOUNDARY PUSHING SE THROUGH THE BIG BEND. THIS WILL WORK TO  
AMP UP RAINFALL AND MAYBE A FEW THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE GULF BEFORE  
DRAGGING THEM ASHORE OVERNIGHT. RAINFALL WILL THEN CONTINUE  
THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD, BECOMING MODERATE AT TIMES. SOME SHOWER  
ACTIVITY WILL LIKELY SLIDE NORTH INTO THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE AND SE  
GEORGIA, HOWEVER THE MAJORITY IS EXPECTED TO STAY SOUTH AND EAST OF  
JEFFERSON COUNTY.  
 
   
SHORT TERM [THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT]
 
 
IN THE UPPER LEVELS A DEEP TROUGH WILL BE OVER THE EASTERN U.S. AT  
THE SURFACE A GULF LOW IN NORTHEASTERN GULF OF MEXICO WILL CONTINUE  
TO DRIFT NORTHEASTWARD MOVING THROUGH NORTHERN FLORIDA ON FRIDAY.  
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE OVER THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY AND THE  
TENNESSEE VALLEY. WITH COLD DRY AIR TO THE NORTH AND WEST, RAIN WILL  
STAY FAIRLY CONFINED TO BIG BEND FLORIDA AND SOUTH CENTRAL GEORGIA.  
RAIN CHANCES WILL BE LOWER IN SOUTHEAST ALABAMA, PANHANDLE FLORIDA  
AND PARTS OF SOUTHWEST GEORGIA. EASTERN BIG BEND FLORIDA WILL LIKELY  
GET THE MOST RAIN WITH 1 TO 2 INCHES FORECAST. POPS RANGE FROM 5 (IN  
THE WEST) TO 85 (IN THE EAST) PERCENT ON THURSDAY. POPS REMAIN  
ELEVATED ON THURSDAY NIGHT UP TO 65 PERCENT. ON FRIDAY THE LOW WILL  
BE OVER THE PENINSULA AND POPS WILL DECREASE SLOWLY THROUGHOUT THE  
DAY. MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES WILL BEGIN TO CLEAR OUT ON FRIDAY AND  
FRIDAY NIGHT. HIGHS WILL BE IN THE 60S. LOWS WILL BE MAINLY IN THE  
40S.  
 
   
LONG TERM [SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY]
 
 
IN THE UPPER LEVELS A DEEP TROUGH WILL BE OVER THE EASTERN  
U.S. UNTIL A RIDGE BUILDS IN ON MONDAY NIGHT. AT THE SURFACE A WEAK  
DECAYING COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH ON SUNDAY FOLLOWED BY HIGH  
PRESSURE IN THE SOUTHEAST. POPS WILL BE NEAR ZERO THIS FORECAST  
PERIOD EVEN AS THE WEAK FRONT MOVES THROUGH. THE FRONT WILL BRING  
COOLER WEATHER. HIGHS WILL BE IN THE UPPER 60S AND LOWER 70S. LOWS  
WILL BE MAINLY IN THE 40S.  
 

 
   
AVIATION [THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY]
 
 
GENERALLY MVFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO PREVAIL INTO THIS EVENING.  
-RA/SHRA WILL THEN BE PUSHING IN FROM THE GULF GENERALLY EAST AND  
SOUTH OF A LINE DRAWN FROM KTLH TO KVLD. -RA/SHRA MAY STILL BE  
POSSIBLE WEST OF THAT LINE. EXPECT CIGS TO DETERIORATE AFTER 00Z  
BECOMING LIFR AT TIMES, ESPECIALLY NEAR KTLH AND KVLD.  
 

 
   
MARINE
 
 
NORTHEASTERLY WINDS WILL INCREASE TO 15 TO 20 KNOTS TONIGHT.  
NORTHEASTERLY WINDS AROUND 20 KNOTS ARE EXPECTED TOMORROW AND A  
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY MAY BE ISSUED LATER ON. WINDS WILL DECREASE  
FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND REMAIN LIGHT TO MODERATE THROUGH MID WEEK.  
 

 
   
FIRE WEATHER
 
 
RED FLAG CONDITIONS ARE NOT EXPECTED FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS.  
A STORM SYSTEM WILL BRING INCREASING RAIN CHANCES TO THE REGION  
STARTING TONIGHT AND CONTINUING INTO FRIDAY MORNING. DRIER  
WEATHER WILL ARRIVE FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND CONTINUE INTO EARLY  
NEXT WEEK.  
 

 
   
HYDROLOGY
 
 
A GULF LOW WILL BRING RAIN TO THE REGION TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY.  
HIGHEST RAIN TOTALS WILL BE IN THE EASTERN BIG BEND FLORIDA AS THE  
LOW TRACKS THROUGH CENTRAL OR NORTHERN FLORIDA. EXPECTED RAIN TOTALS  
OF 1 TO 2 INCHES ARE PREDICTED FOR EASTERN BIG BEND FLORIDA.  
ELSEWHERE RAINFALL TOTALS OF LESS THAN ONE INCH ARE FORECAST WITH  
MOST RAIN FALLING NEAR THE COAST, BIG BEND FLORIDA AND SOUTH CENTRAL  
GEORGIA. RIVER FLOODING IS NOT EXPECTED SINCE RIVER LEVELS ARE STILL  
LOW. FLASH FLOODING IS NOT EXPECTED BUT CANNOT BE RULED OUT AT THIS  
TIME.  
 

 
   
SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT
 
 
SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT REQUESTED. HOWEVER, SPOTTERS ARE ALWAYS  
ENCOURAGED TO SAFELY REPORT SIGNIFICANT WEATHER CONDITIONS WHEN THEY  
OCCUR BY CALLING THE OFFICE OR TWEETING US @NWSTALLAHASSEE.  
 

 
   
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
 
 
TALLAHASSEE 57 66 51 67 48 / 70 60 40 20 10  
PANAMA CITY 55 68 52 68 52 / 50 30 20 10 10  
DOTHAN 49 66 47 67 46 / 20 10 10 10 10  
ALBANY 53 62 47 65 46 / 40 30 20 20 10  
VALDOSTA 56 62 50 63 48 / 60 60 40 40 10  
CROSS CITY 59 67 55 67 50 / 80 90 70 50 20  
APALACHICOLA 59 68 54 68 52 / 80 60 40 20 10  
 

 
   
TAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
 
 
FL...HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK UNTIL 11 PM EST /10 PM CST/ THIS EVENING  
FOR COASTAL GULF.  
 
GA...NONE.  
AL...NONE.  
GM...NONE.  

 
 

 
 
NEAR TERM...HUMPHREYS  
SHORT TERM...MCD  
LONG TERM...MCD  
AVIATION...HUMPHREYS  
MARINE...MCD  
FIRE WEATHER...GODSEY  
HYDROLOGY...MCD  
 
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