493
FXUS62 KTAE 122316
AFDTAE
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL
716 PM EDT FRI JUN 12 2026
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
ISSUED AT 711 PM EDT FRI JUN 12 2026
- A HEAT ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT FOR MUCH OF THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE
AND BIG BEND AS WELL AS FAR SOUTHERN GEORGIA FOR HEAT INDICES
ABOVE 108 DEGREES ON SATURDAY. THOSE WHO ARE SENSITIVE TO HEAT
OR DO NOT HAVE ACCESS TO ADEQUATE COOLING OR HYDRATION COULD BE
IMPACTED BY THE HEAT.
- THERE IS AN INCREASED RISK OF SHOWERS PRODUCING WATERSPOUTS
SATURDAY MORNING OFF THE BAY, GULF, FRANKLIN, WAKULLA, AND
TAYLOR COUNTY COASTLINE.
- RAIN CHANCES WILL BE ON THE INCREASE THROUGH THE WEEKEND AND
INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. THE POTENTIAL FOR HEAVY RAINFALL INCREASES
AFTER MONDAY, ESPECIALLY IN SOUTHEAST ALABAMA AND SOUTHWEST
GEORGIA.
- A HIGH RISK OF RIP CURRENTS IS FORECAST TO RETURN TO OUR AREA
BEACHES HEADING INTO THIS WEEKEND. IT IS STRONGLY DISCOURAGED TO
ENTER THE SURF ON HIGH RISK DAYS. PLEASE HEED THE BEACH FLAGS
AND ADVICE OF LOCAL OFFICIALS.
SHORT TERM
(THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 332 PM EDT FRI JUN 12 2026
ONE MORE GENERALLY DRY AFTERNOON ACROSS THE REGION BEFORE RAIN
CHANCES BEGIN TO INCREASE ON SATURDAY. WITH STEERING WINDS
SHIFTING TO MORE OF A WNW PATTERN DURING THE DAYTIME ON SATURDAY,
THIS SHOULD LEAD TO A LATER START TO CONVECTION ALONG THE FLORIDA
BIG BEND AND PANHANDLE SEA BREEZES, HOWEVER, WITH MOISTURE LEVELS
GRADUALLY INCREASING, STORM COVERAGE SHOULD BE A LITTLE MORE
WIDESPREAD, SO POPS WERE RAISED INTO THE 30-40 PERCENT RANGE
ACROSS MUCH OF THE REGION. BUT THE BIG STORY IS THE HEAT. HIGH
TEMPERATURES SHOULD EASILY WARM INTO THE MID 90S WITH A FEW
LOCATIONS REACHING THE UPPER 90S, ESPECIALLY IF THEY AVOID ANY
THUNDERSTORMS. WHILE SOME MODELS SUGGEST DEWPOINTS DROPPING INTO
THE UPPER 60S, THE BULK OF THE GUIDANCE SHOWS DEWPOINTS IN THE LOW
TO MID 70S ON SATURDAY AFTERNOON, AND THIS IS SUFFICIENT TO
PRODUCE AN AREA OF HEAT INDICES ABOVE CRITERIA FOR A HEAT ADVISORY
SATURDAY AFTERNOON.
LONG TERM
(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH NEXT THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 332 PM EDT FRI JUN 12 2026
A MOISTENING TREND REALLY KICKS OFF SUNDAY AS A RIDGE WEAKENS AND
SHIFTS WEST OF THE FORECAST AREA. IN ADDITION, A TROUGH MOVES
INTO THE OHIO AND TENNESSEE RIVER VALLEYS PUSHING A FRONTAL
BOUNDARY TOWARD THE GULF COAST. THIS WILL LEAD TO GRADUALLY
INCREASING RAIN CHANCES INTO THE FIRST OF THE WEEK AND ESPECIALLY
INTO TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY WHEN RAIN CHANCES ARE EXPECTED TO BE
QUITE HIGH. THE PRESENCE OF A FRONTAL BOUNDARY WITH PWS ABOVE 2
INCHES SUGGESTS THE THREAT FOR WIDESPREAD HEAVY RAINFALL, AND FOR
THAT REASON PORTIONS OF OUR FORECAST AREA ARE ALREADY OUTLINED IN
A MARGINAL RISK FOR EXCESSIVE RAINFALL ON MONDAY AND A SLIGHT RISK
ON TUESDAY. SEEING A SLIGHT RISK FOR EXCESSIVE RAINFALL ON
TUESDAY ACROSS OUR WESTERN AREAS IS QUITE NOTABLE, SO FUTURE
SHIFTS WILL HAVE TO CLOSELY MONITOR THE RAINFALL FORECAST, AS OUR
WESTERN AREAS ARE MORE VULNERABLE TO FLOODING GIVEN RECENT HEAVY
RAINS IN THIS AREA OVER THE LAST MONTH.
EVEN AFTER THE FRONTAL FEATURE DISSIPATES ON WEDNESDAY, CONTINUED
SOUTHERLY TO SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW WILL KEEP HIGH PW AIR IN PLACE
ACROSS THE REGION AND KEEP RAIN CHANCES ABOVE NORMAL THROUGH THE
END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD. WHILE RAIN CHANCES STAY HIGH, THIS
WILL HELP PUT A BREAK IN THE HEAT, WITH HIGH TEMPERATURE RETURNING
TO THE UPPER 80S TO LOW 90S THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.
AVIATION
(00Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 711 PM EDT FRI JUN 12 2026
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PREVAIL AT ALL TERMINALS. A FEW
SHRA REMAIN NEAR ABY, BUT SHOULD DIMINISH IN THE NEXT HOUR OR TWO.
THERE IS A LOW CHANCE OF FOG AT DHN, ECP, AND TLH NEAR SUNRISE
SATURDAY, BUT CHANCES AREN'T HIGH ENOUGH TO INCLUDE IN THE TAFS.
TSRA WILL DEVELOP DURING THE AFTERNOON WITH THE HIGHEST CHANCES
NEAR TLH AND VLD. PROB30S HAVE BEEN INTRODUCED FOR THESE SITES.
CHANCES ARE LOWER ELSEWHERE.
MARINE
ISSUED AT 332 PM EDT FRI JUN 12 2026
MAINLY LIGHT WEST TO SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THIS
WEEKEND WITH SOME LOCAL ENHANCEMENTS ALONG THE COAST IN
ASSOCIATION WITH THE SEABREEZE. AS A FRONTAL SYSTEM APPROACHES
NEXT WEEK, STRONGER SOUTHWESTERLY TO WESTERLY FLOW WILL DEVELOP
WITH SEAS BUILDING TO 3 TO 5 FEET.
FIRE WEATHER
ISSUED AT 332 PM EDT FRI JUN 12 2026
HOT AND MOSTLY DRY WEATHER WILL PREVAIL THROUGH TODAY. AFTERNOON
TEMPERATURES WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE MIDDLE 90S WITH ONLY
ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ALONG THE SEA BREEZE IN OUR
FLORIDA DISTRICTS. HEAT INDICES ARE EXPECTED TO BE IN THE 106 TO
110 DEGREE RANGE ON SATURDAY. MINRH WILL GENERALLY DROP TO
BETWEEN 40 TO 50 PERCENT THROUGH SATURDAY BEFORE INCREASING
SLIGHTLY SUNDAY AND MONDAY. RAIN CHANCES WILL ALSO INCREASE
SOMEWHAT THIS WEEKEND AS MOISTURE RETURNS TO THE REGION. HOWEVER,
THE BEST CHANCE OF WETTING RAINS WILL COME NEXT WEEK.
HYDROLOGY
ISSUED AT 332 PM EDT FRI JUN 12 2026
NO SIGNIFICANT FLASH OR RIVERINE FLOODING IS EXPECTED THROUGH THE
WEEKEND. LOCALLY HEAVY DOWNPOURS ARE EXPECTED WITHIN ANY SHOWERS
AND STORMS THAT DEVELOP.
FOR EARLY NEXT WEEK, GIVEN THE RISK AREAS ALREADY PRESENT, FLASH
FLOODING IS A CONCERN FOR MONDAY AND TUESDAY. DETERMINISTIC
RAINFALL AMOUNTS ARE RELATIVELY HIGH ALREADY AT THIS TIME RANGE,
SO WATCHING THE TRENDS IN BOTH THE RISK AREAS AND RAINFALL
FORECAST CAN HELP BETTER UNDERSTAND FLOOD VULNERABILITY. WESTERN
AREAS HAVE ALREADY BEEN ESPECIALLY WET FROM RAINFALL IN MAY AND
ARE MUCH MORE VULNERABLE TO FLASH FLOODING THAN EASTERN PORTIONS
OF THE FORECAST AREA.
IN THE MEANTIME, IT'S BEEN A VERY DRY START TO JUNE. THE
TALLAHASSEE AREA IS CURRENTLY TIED FOR THE 5TH DRIEST START TO
JUNE ON RECORD WITH ONLY 0.02 INCHES OF RAIN SO FAR AT THE AIRPORT
THROUGH THE FIRST 11 DAYS OF THE MONTH. SEVERE TO EXCEPTIONAL
DROUGHT CONTINUES FOR AREAS GENERALLY EAST OF THE APALACHICOLA AND
FLINT RIVERS AS THESE AREAS MISSED OUT ON THE MOST BENEFICIAL
RECENT RAINS. THE DROUGHT FEATURES LONG TERM IMPACTS THAT ARE
AFFECTING RIVERS, LAKES, AND PONDS THAT ARE STILL BELOW NORMAL
DESPITE RECENT RAINS. FOR MORE INFORMATION ON LOCAL DROUGHT
IMPACTS, PLEASE VISIT
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/TAE/DROUGHTINFORMATIONSTATEMENT.
SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT
SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT REQUESTED. HOWEVER, SPOTTERS ARE ALWAYS
ENCOURAGED TO SAFELY REPORT SIGNIFICANT WEATHER CONDITIONS WHEN THEY
OCCUR BY CALLING THE OFFICE OR TWEETING US @NWSTALLAHASSEE.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
TALLAHASSEE 95 76 97 76 / 20 10 40 10
PANAMA CITY 90 77 91 79 / 20 0 10 10
DOTHAN 95 75 96 76 / 0 0 30 10
ALBANY 95 77 97 77 / 10 10 30 20
VALDOSTA 95 77 97 77 / 10 10 40 20
CROSS CITY 94 77 95 77 / 20 0 40 10
APALACHICOLA 89 78 90 79 / 20 0 10 0
TAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
FL...HEAT ADVISORY FROM NOON EDT /11 AM CDT/ TO 6 PM EDT /5 PM CDT/
SATURDAY FOR FLZ009>019-027>029-034-112-114-115-118-127-128-
134-326-426.
GA...HEAT ADVISORY FROM NOON TO 6 PM EDT SATURDAY FOR GAZ155>161.
AL...NONE.
GM...NONE.
SHORT TERM...GODSEY
LONG TERM....GODSEY
AVIATION...YOUNG
MARINE...GODSEY
FIRE WEATHER...GODSEY
HYDROLOGY...GODSEY
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