044
FXUS62 KTAE 041919
AFDTAE
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL
319 PM EDT SAT JUL 4 2009
SHORT TERM (TONIGHT-MONDAY NIGHT)
THE PERSISTENT NORTH-NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL CONTINUE OVER THE
LOCAL AREA AS A BROAD UPPER TROUGH REMAINS POSITIONED OVER THE
EASTERN STATES AND A RIDGE REMAINS IN PLACE OUT WEST. ALTHOUGH
CONDITIONS HAVE TEMPORARILY BECOME DRY WITH THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY
JUST SOUTH OF THE CWA...THE DEEP LAYER MOISTURE WILL BEGIN TO
INCREASE ONCE AGAIN BEGINNING SUNDAY AS A SHORTWAVE TROUGH AND ITS
ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT MAKES ITS WAY SOUTH AND SOUTHEAST INTO THE
REGION. THE MODELS INDICATE THE LOW-LEVEL FLOW WILL SHIFT TO THE
SOUTHWEST TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY AND CONTINUE THROUGH THE MAJORITY OF
THE SHORT-TERM PERIOD. THE NAM AND GFS BOTH INDICATE THE LEADING
EDGE OF THE DEEPER LAYER MOISTURE AXIS BEGINNING TO MAKE ITS WAY
CLOSER TO OUR ALABAMA COUNTIES BY SUNDAY EVENING. MODEL SOUNDINGS
INDICATE PWAT VALUES INCREASING TO AROUND THE 2 INCH MARK COME
SUNDAY NIGHT. ALTHOUGH MOST OF THE SHOWER AND STORM ACTIVITY WILL
REMAIN NORTH AND NORTHWEST OF OUR LOCAL AREA THROUGH THE DAY
SUNDAY...POPS WILL BEGIN TO INCREASE QUICKLY OVER OUR SE ALABAMA
COUNTIES AND WILL POSSIBLY CONTINUE WELL INTO THE EVENING HOURS
TOMORROW NIGHT. AT THIS TIME...THE BEST CHANCE FOR WIDESPREAD
SHOWERS AND STORMS ACROSS THE LOCAL AREA WILL BE THROUGH THE DAY
MONDAY AS THE FRONT PUSHES CLOSER TO THE CWA. SOME STORMS MAY BECOME
STRONG TO SEVERE THROUGH THE DAY MONDAY. MODEL SOUNDING INDICATE 30
TO 40 KNOTS WINDS AROUND 850 MB. RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS THROUGH THE
SHORT-TERM PERIOD WILL GENERALLY RANGE FROM AROUND HALF OF AN INCH
TO ONE TO ONE AND A HALF OF AN INCH WITH SOME LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS
UP TO TWO INCHES POSSIBLE.
LONG TERM (TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
EXTENDED BEGINS WITH GLOBAL MODELS IN GOOD AGREEMENT. UPPER LOW
IN SOUTHEAST CANADA WITH GENERAL TROUGHING ACROSS MUCH OF EASTERN
HALF OF THE U.S...A RIDGE IN THE UPPER PLAINS...AND A TROUGH JUST
OFF THE COAST OF THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST. THE UPPER HIGH WILL HAVE
RETROGRADED TO JUST OFF BAJA. THE WESTWARD EXTENSION OF THE
ATLANTIC RIDGE IS LOCATED ACROSS CUBA. AT THE SURFACE...THE PESKY
FRONT CONTINUES TO BE DRAPED ACROSS OUR REGION. AS THE TROUGH DIGS
DEEPER OFF THE WEST COAST...THE UPPER ANTICYCLONE DRIFTS BACK
TOWARDS THE EAST INTO THE SW U.S. THE ATLANTIC RIDGE APPEARS TO
INTENSIFY BACK TO THE WEST INTO CENTRAL FLORIDA. HEIGHTS CONTINUE
TO BUILD ACROSS MUCH OF THE EASTERN HALF OF THE U.S. ALL THE
WHILE...TROUGHINESS CONTINUES IN ONE FORM OR ANOTHER ACROSS OUR
AREA FOCUSING MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY ALONG THE OLD FRONTAL
BOUNDARY THROUGH MUCH OF THE PERIOD. MODELS DIVERGE TOWARDS THE
END OF THE PERIOD AS TO THE LOCATION OF THE UPPER TROUGH. WITH ALL
THIS SAID...IT APPEARS THAT OUR WEATHER WILL REMAIN SOMEWHAT
DISTURBED THROUGH THE EXTENDED WITH POPS SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL AND
TEMPS BEING VERY CLOSE TO NORMAL. SOME UNCERTAINTY EXISTS ON DAY
7...THAT IS...WILL THE RIDGE BUILD BACK IN OR WILL THE TROUGH
CONTINUE TO DOMINATE.
MARINE
THE GRADIENT WILL BEGIN TO TIGHTEN ACROSS THE WATERS
LATER TONIGHT AND WILL REMAIN IN PLACE INTO THE EARLY PORTION OF
THE UPCOMING WEEK AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE NORTHWEST.
AS A RESULT...WINDS AND SEAS WILL BEGIN TO INCREASE OVER THE NEXT
FEW DAYS. A PERIOD OR TWO WITH ADVISORY LEVEL WINDS AND SEAS WILL
BE POSSIBLE SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY AS THE FRONT MOVES INTO
THE AREA. THE GRADIENT WILL BEGIN TO RELAX WEDNESDAY THROUGH
THURSDAY AS THE FRONT STALLS AND WEAKENS NEAR THE MARINE AREA.
AVIATION
THROUGH 18Z SUN.
VFR CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST TO PREVAIL AT THE TERMINALS THROUGH THE
FORECAST PERIOD. THERE ARE TWO EXCEPTIONS. WILL LIKELY SEE A PERIOD
OF MVFR VSBY AT VLD FROM 08-12Z OR SO. ALSO...DECIDED TO PUT IN
PROB30 GROUPS LATE IN THE FORECAST AT DHN AND ABY IN SHOWERS WITH
MVFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE IN THE SHOWERS. THERE IS ABSOLUTELY NO
EVIDENCE IN SATELLITE OR RADAR IMAGERY THAT THE FIRE UPWIND OF PFN
IS STILL BURNING...SO WE REMOVED ALL VSBY RESTRICTIONS AT THAT
TERMINAL FOR THIS AFTERNOON.
FIRE WEATHER
VERY LIGHT WINDS PROMPTED THE CANCELLATION OF THE
WATCH FOR SE AL EARLIER TODAY. THE WARNING FOR INLAND N FL APPEARS
TO BE VERIFYING WELL. INCREASING MOISTURE AND RAIN CHANCES BEGINNING
ON SUN WILL PRECLUDE RED FLAG CONDITIONS FOR AT LEAST THE FIRST
PART OF NEXT WEEK.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
TALLAHASSEE 71 93 75 89 72 / 10 10 20 70 60
PANAMA CITY 78 91 78 87 76 / 10 20 30 60 50
DOTHAN 72 93 75 87 71 / 10 30 40 70 30
ALBANY 70 93 75 88 70 / 10 30 40 70 40
VALDOSTA 69 94 75 88 72 / 10 10 30 70 60
CROSS CITY 72 93 75 88 72 / 10 10 20 70 60
APALACHICOLA 78 91 78 88 77 / 10 10 20 60 50
TAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
AL...NONE.
GA...NONE.
FL...RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 7 PM EDT /6 PM CDT/ THIS EVENING FOR THE
FOLLOWING ZONES: BAY...CALHOUN...COASTAL WALTON...GADSDEN...
HOLMES...INLAND WALTON...JACKSON...JEFFERSON...LAFAYETTE...
LEON...LIBERTY...MADISON...TAYLOR...WAKULLA...WASHINGTON.
GM...NONE.
SHORT TERM/MARINE...GIBBS
FIRE/AVIATION...WOOL
LONG TERM...WATSON
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