795  
FXUS62 KTAE 252331  
AFDTAE  
 
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION  
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL  
731 PM EDT SAT MAR 25 2017  
   
AVIATION
 
 
[THROUGH 00Z MONDAY] A WEAKENING SQUALL LINE WILL MOVE INTO THE  
AREA FROM WEST TO EAST THIS EVENING AND INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS.  
MAINLY MVFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WITH THIS LINE AT DHN AND ECP,  
BUT SHORT PERIODS OF IFR ARE POSSIBLE IN HEAVIER RAIN. AS THE LINE  
CONTINUES TO WEAKEN, IT WILL MOVE ACROSS ABY AND TLH, BUT SCATTERED  
SHOWERS MAY NOT BE INTENSE ENOUGH TO PRODUCE SIGNIFICANT VISIBILITY  
RESTRICTIONS. AFTER ANY SHOWERS END, SOME PATCHY FOG IS POSSIBLE  
ACROSS OUR AREA DURING THE EARLY MORNING, BUT VISIBILITY IS LIKELY  
TO REMAIN AT VFR THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD.  
 

 
   
PREV DISCUSSION [356 PM EDT]
 
 
   
NEAR TERM [THROUGH TONIGHT]
 
 
A VERTICALLY STACKED AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE  
NORTHEASTWARD THROUGH THE MID-MISSISSIPPI VALLEY REGION THIS  
AFTERNOON AND EVENING, WITH A TROUGH AXIS EXTENDING SOUTHEASTWARD  
INTO OUR REGION DURING THE EVENING HOURS. A SLOW-MOVING LINE OF  
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL MOVE EASTWARD ALONG/AHEAD OF THIS  
FEATURE THIS EVENING, LIKELY MOVING INTO SE ALABAMA AND THE FLORIDA  
PANHANDLE AFTER 00Z. INCREASING DEEP-LAYER MOISTURE (PWAT VALUES UP  
TO 1.3-1.4") SHOULD MAINTAIN THE LINE OF SHOWERS FOR MUCH OF THE  
NIGHT. HOWEVER, MODEST INSTABILITY WILL BE DECREASING THROUGH THE  
NIGHT AND FORCING WILL DECREASE AS THE AFOREMENTIONED LOW MOVES  
NORTHEASTWARD AND GRADUALLY WEAKENS. THEREFORE, BEST CHANCES OF  
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE ALONG/WEST OF A LINE FROM DOTHAN  
TO PANAMA CITY, WITH CHANCES DECREASING FARTHER TO THE EAST AS THE  
LINE WEAKENS OVERNIGHT.  
 
PERSISTENT SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW AND AMPLE CLOUD COVER WILL KEEP  
TEMPERATURES MILD OVERNIGHT, WITH LOWS AROUND 60 INLAND AND IN THE  
MID-60S ALONG THE GULF COAST.  
 
   
SHORT TERM [SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT]
 
 
THE FRONT ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST WILL WEAKEN AND LIFT NORTHWARD ON  
SUNDAY AS THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM THE FRONT IS ASSOCIATED WITH  
LIFTS INTO THE MIDWEST AND TOWARDS THE GREAT LAKES, HOWEVER A FEW  
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL STILL BE POSSIBLE ON SUNDAY. WHILE  
CAPE VALUES OF 600 J/KG SUPPORT THUNDERSTORMS ON SUNDAY, LOW  
LEVEL AND DEEP LAYER SHEAR ARE ON THE LOWER SIDE. WITH THIS AND  
THE FACT THE UPPER LEVEL FEATURE IS WELL REMOVED TO THE NORTH OF  
THE CWA, SEVERE STORMS ARE NOT EXPECTED ON SUNDAY. THE SURFACE LOW  
WILL MOVE INTO THE GREAT LAKES SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY, WITH THE  
WEAKENING COLD FRONT LIFTING NORTH AND EAST, PROVIDING A LULL IN  
PRECIP SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY MORNING. ANOTHER LOW PRESSURE  
SYSTEM WILL TRACK FROM THE SOUTHERN PLAINS SUNDAY NIGHT INTO THE  
TENNESSEE VALLEY MONDAY NIGHT, HOWEVER THE MAIN PORTION OF THE  
PRECIP ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SURFACE LOW WILL REMAIN NORTH OF THE  
CWA.  
 
HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE IN THE MID 70S TO LOWER 80S ON SUNDAY  
WITH THE UPPER RANGE INCREASING INTO THE MID 80S MONDAY. LOWS WILL  
RANGE FROM THE UPPER 50S TO THE LOWER 60S.  
 
   
LONG TERM [TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY]
 
 
WHILE A FEW SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE  
NORTHERN PORTION OF THE CWA NEAR THE BEGINNING OF THE LONG TERM,  
THE BEST CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION WILL BE WITH A FRONT MOVING  
THROUGH ON FRIDAY. THIS WILL BRING A RETURN OF RAIN CHANCES TO THE  
CHANCE RANGE WITH PRECIP DIMINISHING FOR THE WEEKEND. HIGH  
TEMPERATURES WILL INCREASE INTO THE MID TO UPPER 80S FOR WEDNESDAY  
AND THURSDAY AND RETURN TO THE UPPER 70S TO LOWER 80S LATE IN THE  
WEEK WITH THE ADDITIONAL COVERAGE AND RAIN AND BEHIND THE FRONT ON  
SATURDAY. LOWS WILL MAINLY BE IN THE UPPER 50S TO LOWER 60S.  
 
   
MARINE
 
 
WINDS AND SEAS WILL DIMINISH TONIGHT AND REMAIN BELOW CAUTIONARY  
LEVELS INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. A STORM SYSTEM WILL INCREASE THE  
CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TONIGHT WITH CHANCES  
DIMINISHING ON SUNDAY. ANOTHER FRONT LATE IN THE WEEK, WILL  
INCREASE WINDS AND SEAS TO AT LEAST CAUTIONARY LEVELS.  
 
   
FIRE WEATHER
 
 
RED FLAG CONDITIONS ARE NOT EXPECTED FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS WITH  
RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES REMAINING ABOVE CRITICAL LEVELS.  
 
   
HYDROLOGY
 
 
RAIN IS EXPECTED TONIGHT, BUT AMOUNTS WILL BE ON THE LIGHTER SIDE  
WITH A HALF INCH TO AN INCH WEST OF A PANAMA CITY TO DOTHAN LINE  
AND GENERALLY AROUND A QUARTER INCH OR LESS ALONG AND EAST OF THIS  
LINE. THESE AMOUNTS ARE NOT EXPECTED TO CAUSE ANY SIGNIFICANT  
FLOODING ON RIVERS.  
 

 
   
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
 
 
TALLAHASSEE 59 80 57 83 58 / 50 20 0 0 10  
PANAMA CITY 65 74 63 74 64 / 60 30 0 0 10  
DOTHAN 61 80 60 82 61 / 70 30 0 10 10  
ALBANY 61 81 60 84 61 / 50 40 10 20 10  
VALDOSTA 59 81 58 83 58 / 20 40 10 20 10  
CROSS CITY 59 81 57 82 57 / 10 20 0 10 10  
APALACHICOLA 63 74 61 76 62 / 40 20 0 0 10  
 

 
   
TAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
 
 
FL...HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK UNTIL 11 PM EDT /10 PM CDT/ THIS EVENING  
FOR COASTAL BAY-COASTAL FRANKLIN-SOUTH WALTON.  
 
GA...NONE.  
AL...NONE.  
GM...NONE.  
 

 
 

 
 
NEAR TERM...LAHR  
SHORT TERM...FIEUX  
LONG TERM...FIEUX  
AVIATION...DVD  
MARINE...FIEUX  
FIRE WEATHER...DVD  
HYDROLOGY...FIEUX  
 
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.

The Nexlab FL Page
The Nexlab GA Page
The Nexlab AL Page Main Text Page