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FXUS62 KTAE 031849
AFDTAE
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL
249 PM EDT THU JUL 3 2008
SYNOPSIS
VAPOR IMAGERY AND UPPER AIR OBSERVATIONS SHOWED A TROUGH FROM THE
PIEDMONT TO EAST TX. THE SHORT WAVE THAT AFFECTED OUR AREA THIS
MORNING (EMBEDDED WITHIN THIS BROADER TROUGH) HAS MOVED OFF TO THE
NORTHEAST. THERE WAS STILL QUITE A BIT OF DRY AIR ALOFT OVER GA
AND AL...AND IT APPEARS THAT THIS DRIER AIR HAS TAKEN ITS TOLL ON
THE ABUNDANT DEEP MOIST CONVECTION THAT DEVELOPED THIS
MORNING...AS IT HAS BECOME LESS NUMEROUS RECENTLY.
SHORT TERM
(TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY) THE LATEST NUMERICAL GUIDANCE FORECASTS A
BROAD TROUGH TO CONTINUE OVER MUCH OF THE EASTERN HALF OF THE
CONUS...BUT THE TROUGH WILL SHARPEN TO OUR WEST AS A POTENT SHORT
WAVE (CURRENTLY OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS) DIGS INTO THE MEAN
TROUGH AND AMPLIFIES IT. MEANWHILE THE SUBTROPICAL SURFACE RIDGE
WILL REMAIN JUST SOUTH OF OUR REGION...PROVIDING US WITH LIGHT
SOUTHWEST WINDS. THE MAIN MODEL DISCREPANCIES ARISE ON FRIDAY. THE
GFS SHOWS ABUNDANT DEEP LAYER MOISTURE OVER OUR AREA WHILE THE
ECMWF...NAM...AND SREF ARE DRIER. THE NAM ALSO FORECASTS LIGHT
EASTERLY FLOW IN THE 1000-700 MB LAYER...WHILE THE OTHER GUIDANCE
FORECASTS SOUTHWEST FLOW (SIMILAR TO TODAY). THUS THE NAM SOLUTION
WOULD BE DRIER THAN THE GFS. WE USED A BLEND OF THE
GUIDANCE...CLIMATOLOGY...AND PERSISTENCE TO GET A POP RANGING FROM
40 TO 60 PERCENT...WITH THE HIGHEST POP NEAR THE COAST. A SIMILAR
(BUT MORE EVENLY DISTRIBUTED) POP FORECAST WILL CONTINUE THROUGH
THE WEEKEND AS DEEP LAYER MOISTURE INCREASES AHEAD OF THE
DEEPENING UPPER TROUGH TO THE WEST. WIDESPREAD SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS
APPEAR UNLIKELY DUE TO WEAK VERTICAL WIND SHEAR AND ONLY
MODERATELY UNSTABLE SBCAPE. TEMPERATURES WILL BE NEAR
AVERAGE...BUT HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE HIGHLY DEPENDANT ON WHERE
AND WHEN THE RAIN OCCURS.
LONG TERM
(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY) TROPICAL MOISTURE CONTINUES TO INCREASE
FROM THE SOUTH ON MONDAY AS A TROPICAL WAVE MOVES INTO THE
NORTHWEST CARIBBEAN. DEEP TROPICAL MOISTURE WILL REMAIN IN PLACE
THROUGH THE REST OF THE LONG TERM PERIOD...YIELDING GOOD CHANCES
FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS EACH AFTERNOON/EVENING. TEMPERATURES
WILL GENERALLY REMAIN NEAR CLIMO THROUGH THE PERIOD AS AFTERNOON
CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY WILL HOLD MAX TEMPS IN THE LOWER 90S.
AVIATION
SCATTERED SHOWERS STILL SPREADING ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA AS OF
18Z. HAVE INCLUDED CB GROUPS AT ALL TERMINALS...AS WELL AS TEMPOS
AT KTLH...KDHN...AND KVLD. STORMS SHOULD GENERALLY DISSIPATE BY
EARLY EVENING...LEAVING MAINLY SCT CIRRUS AND CALM TO NEAR CALM
WINDS OVERNIGHT. INCLUDED TEMPOS FOR THE POSSIBILITY OF MVFR VSBYS
AT KTLH AND KVLD...WHAT WITH INCREASED SOIL MOISTURE FROM TODAY'S
PRECIP AS WELL AS WINDS GOING CALM AT BOTH SITES OVERNIGHT. ON
FRIDAY...SHOWERS AND TSTMS COULD BEGIN FORMING AS EARLY AS MID-
MORNING...SO PROB30S ARE IN PLACE AT THOSE TERMINALS BEFORE 18Z.
MARINE
WINDS AND SEAS WILL REMAIN LOW THROUGH MUCH OF THE WEAK WITH THE
RIDGE AXIS NEAR THE AREA. WE DO NOT EXPECT QUITE AS MANY SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE COASTAL WATERS FRIDAY MORNING AS THERE
WILL NOT BE A SHORT WAVE TROUGH OVER THE AREA.
FIRE WEATHER
RED FLAG CONDITIONS ARE NOT EXPECTED THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
TALLAHASSEE 70 90 70 91 71 / 30 50 30 50 30
PANAMA CITY 74 89 75 90 74 / 30 40 30 40 30
DOTHAN 70 91 72 93 71 / 30 40 30 50 30
ALBANY 71 92 71 94 71 / 30 40 30 50 30
VALDOSTA 69 91 70 91 70 / 30 50 30 50 30
CROSS CITY 69 90 70 90 70 / 30 60 30 50 30
TAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
AL...NONE.
GA...NONE.
FL...NONE.
GM...NONE.
LONG TERM...GODSEY
AVIATION...RUBIO
REST OF DISCUSSION...FOURNIER
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