328  
FXUS62 KTAE 260742  
AFDTAE  
 
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION  
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL  
342 AM EDT WED APR 26 2017  
   
NEAR TERM [THROUGH TODAY]
 
 
DEEP LAYER RIDGING WILL PREVAIL THIS AFTERNOON, WITH HIGHS CLIMBING  
INTO THE MIDDLE 80S AND NO RAIN.  
 
   
SHORT TERM [TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY]
 
 
AN UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH IN THE SOUTHERN PLAINS WILL SWING  
INTO THE OHIO VALLEY THURSDAY, PUSHING A COLD FRONT INTO THE  
SOUTHEAST. A LINEAR MCS AHEAD OF THE FRONT WILL BE MOVING NORTHEAST  
AS IT APPROACHES THE AREA, AND MOST OF THE CONVECTION IS EXPECTED TO  
BE NORTH OF US. STILL, OUR NORTHERN TIER OF COUNTIES WILL PROBABLY  
SEE SOME THUNDERSTORMS FROM THIS SYSTEM. ANY STORMS THAT DO MANAGE  
TO MAKE IT INTO THE FORECAST AREA WILL HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO BE  
SEVERE SINCE THEY WILL BE IN A FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT. MODEL MLCAPE  
IS AROUND 2000-2500 J/KG THURSDAY AFTERNOON WITH 0-6 KM SHEAR OF 30-  
40 KTS AND 0-1 KM SHEAR OF 15 KTS.  
 
THE FRONT ITSELF WON'T MAKE IT THIS FAR SOUTH. WINDS WILL REMAIN  
FROM THE SOUTH THROUGH FRIDAY AND MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES WILL BE IN  
THE MID TO UPPER 80S. MORNING LOWS WILL BE IN THE 60S, LOW 70S ALONG  
THE IMMEDIATE COASTLINE.  
 
   
LONG TERM [FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY]
 
 
LOW LEVEL RIDGING WILL PERSIST TO OUR EAST THROUGH THE WEEKEND,  
KEEPING LOW LEVEL WINDS SOUTHERLY. WITH AFTERNOON HIGHS INLAND IN  
THE UPPER 80S AND LOW 90S, THERE WILL BE A LARGE ENOUGH TEMPERATURE  
GRADIENT BETWEEN THE LAND AND WATER TO DEVELOP A SEA-BREEZE FRONTAL  
BOUNDARY BOTH SATURDAY AND SUNDAY. ISOLATED SEA-BREEZE THUNDERSTORMS  
WILL DRIVE UP POPS TO AROUND 20%. EARLY NEXT WEEK, AN UPPER LEVEL  
+PV ANOMALY WILL LIFT FROM THE MID-MISSISSIPPI VALLEY INTO THE GREAT  
LAKES, PUSHING A COLD FRONT ACROSS THE EASTERN CONUS. TIMING REMAINS  
UNCERTAIN WITH THIS NEXT SYSTEM, BUT AT THE MOMENT IT APPEARS THE  
AREA WILL MOST LIKELY SEE THUNDERSTORMS ON MONDAY. BEHIND THE FRONT,  
TEMPERATURES WILL DROP- HIGHS WILL RETURN TO THE LOW 80S AND LOWS  
WILL FALL TO THE MID 50S.  
 

 
   
AVIATION [THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY]
 
 
DHN, TLH, AND VLD ALL HAVE THE POTENTIAL FOR A COUPLE HOURS OF MVFR  
VISIBILITIES NEAR DAWN. OTHERWISE, VFR SHOULD PREVAIL THROUGH THE  
TAF.  
 

 
   
MARINE
 
 
A FRONTAL SYSTEM APPROACHING THE AREA WILL DRIVE SOUTHERLY WINDS  
TO INCREASE THROUGH THE DAY, UP TO AROUND 20 KNOTS OVER OUR  
WESTERN WATERS TONIGHT. WAVE HEIGHTS WILL BUILD TO 4 TO 6 FEET  
OVERNIGHT AS WELL. WINDS SPEEDS AND SEAS WILL GRADUALLY LOWER  
THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT AS THE FRONT PULLS NORTHEAST. THE FRONT  
WILL NOT CROSS THE COASTAL WATERS, SO WINDS WILL REMAIN SOUTHERLY  
THROUGH THE WEEKEND. ADVISORY CONDITIONS APPEAR LIKELY SATURDAY  
NIGHT AND SUNDAY AS ANOTHER FRONT APPROACHES THE AREA.  
 

 
   
FIRE WEATHER
 
 
RED FLAG CONDITIONS ARE NOT EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS,  
THOUGH DISPERSION INDICES WILL GRADUALLY INCREASE BEGINNING TOMORROW.  
 

 
   
HYDROLOGY
 
 
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THURSDAY ARE EXPECTED TO PRODUCE LESS THAN  
A HALF INCH OF PRECIPITATION. TIMING REMAINS UNCERTAIN FOR OUR NEXT  
COLD FRONT EARLY NEXT WEEK, WHICH MAKES IT DIFFICULT TO ESTIMATE  
RAINFALL AMOUNTS AT THIS TIME. NO FLOODING IS FORECAST FOR THE NEXT  
SEVERAL DAYS.  
 

 
   
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
 
 
TALLAHASSEE 83 62 85 67 88 / 0 10 10 10 10  
PANAMA CITY 77 70 80 73 81 / 0 20 20 10 10  
DOTHAN 84 66 83 69 88 / 0 20 40 10 10  
ALBANY 85 64 85 68 90 / 0 10 40 10 10  
VALDOSTA 84 60 87 65 90 / 0 0 10 0 10  
CROSS CITY 82 61 86 65 89 / 0 0 10 0 10  
APALACHICOLA 77 70 81 69 82 / 0 10 10 10 10  
 

 
   
TAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
 
 
FL...HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK FROM 8 AM EDT /7 AM CDT/ THIS MORNING  
THROUGH LATE TONIGHT FOR COASTAL BAY-SOUTH WALTON.  
 
GA...NONE.  
AL...NONE.  
GM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 8 PM THIS EVENING TO 8 AM EDT THURSDAY  
FOR COASTAL WATERS FROM APALACHICOLA TO DESTIN FL OUT 20 NM-  
WATERS FROM APALACHICOLA TO DESTIN FL FROM 20 TO 60 NM.  
 

 
 

 
 
NEAR TERM...HARRIGAN  
SHORT TERM...MOORE  
LONG TERM...MOORE  
AVIATION...HARRIGAN  
MARINE...MOORE  
FIRE WEATHER...HARRIGAN  
HYDROLOGY...MOORE  
 
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