622  
FXUS62 KTAE 180727  
AFDTAE  
 
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION  
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL  
327 AM EDT MON JUN 18 2018  
   
NEAR TERM [THROUGH TODAY]
 
 
UPPER LEVEL RIDGING WAS CENTERED OVER THE EASTERN US THIS MORNING.  
THE MEAN WINDS IN THE LOW/MID LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE WILL BE  
LIGHT THIS AFTERNOON SO EXPECT SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT  
TO BE FOCUSED ALONG THE SEABREEZES AND INFLUENCED HEAVILY BY ANY  
THUNDERSTORM OUTFLOW THAT FORMS. DID NOTE SLIGHTLY DRIER AIR TO  
OUR WEST IN MISSISSIPPI AND ALSO OFF THE EASTERN FLORIDA COAST.  
THE DRIER AIR WEST OF TALLAHASSEE/ALBANY, AND WEAK NORTHWEST FLOW  
IN THE LOW/MID LEVELS WILL KEEP PRECIPITATION CHANCES LOWER IN  
THESE LOCATIONS. ENHANCED MOISTURE, ALONG WITH WEAK LOW-LEVEL  
CONVERGENCE ALONG THE EASTERLY-FLOW/SEABREEZES, WILL KEEP THE  
PRECIPITATION CHANCES HIGHER EAST OF TALLAHASSEE/ALBANY.  
 
A WARM DAY IS IN STORE WITH THE LOWER PRECIPITATION CHANCES FOR THE  
CENTRAL AND WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA. TEMPS WILL CLIMB  
INTO THE LOW TO MID 90S IN THESE AREAS. SLIGHTLY COOLER CONDITIONS  
(DUE TO BETTER PRECIPITATION CHANCES) ARE ANTICIPATED IN EASTERN  
PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA.  
 
   
SHORT TERM [TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY]
 
 
THROUGHOUT THE SHORT TERM, A MID/UPPER RIDGE WILL BE MEANDERING  
ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST US. THIS RIDGE WILL ACT TO SUPPRESS  
CONVECTION SOMEWHAT TUESDAY BUT NOT ENTIRELY. THE EASTERN THIRD  
OF THE CWA HAS THE HIGHER CHANCES FOR RAINFALL TUESDAY. A SURFACE  
TROUGH APPROACHES THE AREA WEDNESDAY AND THE MID/UPPER RIDGE  
WEAKENS SOMEWHAT WITH THE APPROACH OF AN UPPER TROF INTO THE  
CENTRAL/SOUTHERN PLAINS. WE COULD SEE AN INCREASE IN RAIN CHANCES  
WEDNESDAY WITH A LITTLE MORE MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY ESPECIALLY  
ASSOCIATED WITH THE SEABREEZE. HIGHS EACH DAY WILL BE IN THE LOWER  
TO MIDDLE 90S.  
 
   
LONG TERM [WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY]
 
 
UPPER RIDGE GETS SHUNTED SOUTHEAST AND WEAKENS AS THE UPPER TROF  
DIGS SOUTHWARD AND SWEEPS ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH THE WEEKEND.  
RIDGING BEGINS TO BUILD BACK OVER THE SOUTHEAST IN THE WAKE OF THE  
UPPER TROF EARLY NEXT WEEK. RAIN CHANCES WILL BE AROUND  
CLIMATOLOGICAL NORMALS FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR WITH GOOD COVERAGE  
EACH AFTERNOON DUE TO THE UPPER TROF IN THE AREA AND WEAKENING  
SUBSIDENCE. HIGHS WILL REMAIN IN THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 90S.  
 

 
   
AVIATION [THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY]
 
 
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE PERIOD. SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS  
WILL DEVELOP FROM 18Z MONDAY THROUGH 00Z TUESDAY WITH THE HIGHEST  
PROBABILITY FROM TLH/ABY AND EASTWARDS. MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS ARE  
LIKELY IN ANY THUNDERSTORMS.  
 

 
   
MARINE
 
 
FAVORABLE MARINE CONDITIONS ARE ANTICIPATED THIS PERIOD FEATURING  
LOW WINDS AND SEAS. ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS AND  
THUNDERSTORMS ARE ANTICIPATED JUST ABOUT EACH DAY. LOCALLY HIGHER  
WINDS AND SEAS POSSIBLE IN AND AROUND HEAVIER CONVECTION AND NEAR  
THE COAST WITH THE DAILY SEABREEZE.  
 

 
   
FIRE WEATHER
 
 
NO FIRE CONCERNS ARE ANTICIPATED FOR THE NEXT 7 DAYS. HOWEVER,  
SLIGHTLY WARMER AND DRIER CONDITIONS ARE ANTICIPATED OVER THE NEXT 2  
DAYS BEFORE RAIN CHANCES CLIMB BY THE MIDDLE OF THE UPCOMING WEEK.  
 

 
   
HYDROLOGY
 
 
ALL AREA RIVERS ARE BELOW FLOOD STAGE WITH JUST A COUPLE AROUND  
ACTION STAGE. ON AVERAGE, 1-2 INCHES OF RAINFALL IS ANTICIPATED  
OVER THE NEXT WEEK. WIDESPREAD FLOODING IS NOT ANTICIPATED BUT  
SOME LOCALIZED AREAS OF FLOODING IN URBAN AND POOR DRAINAGE AREAS  
IS POSSIBLE.  
 

 
   
SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT
 
 
SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT REQUESTED. HOWEVER, SPOTTERS ARE ALWAYS  
ENCOURAGED TO SAFELY REPORT SIGNIFICANT WEATHER CONDITIONS WHEN THEY  
OCCUR BY CALLING THE OFFICE OR TWEETING US @NWSTALLAHASSEE.  
 

 
   
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
 
 
TALLAHASSEE 94 73 92 74 92 / 40 20 50 30 60  
PANAMA CITY 91 76 90 77 88 / 20 10 30 20 50  
DOTHAN 91 73 93 74 93 / 30 20 40 20 30  
ALBANY 91 73 93 74 94 / 40 30 50 30 40  
VALDOSTA 92 72 92 73 91 / 50 30 50 30 50  
CROSS CITY 92 73 91 74 89 / 50 30 40 20 50  
APALACHICOLA 90 76 89 77 88 / 20 10 20 20 40  
 

 
   
TAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
 
 
FL...NONE.  
GA...NONE.  
AL...NONE.  
GM...NONE.  

 
 

 
 
NEAR TERM...DOBBS  
SHORT TERM...SCHOLL  
LONG TERM...SCHOLL  
AVIATION...DOBBS  
MARINE...SCHOLL  
FIRE WEATHER...DOBBS  
HYDROLOGY...SCHOLL  
 
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