872
FXUS62 KTBW 091442
AFDTBW
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAMPA BAY RUSKIN FL
942 AM EST TUE FEB 9 2010
DISCUSSION
THE DRY AIR MASS ACROSS THE REGION CONTINUES TO SLOWLY
MOISTEN THIS MORNING VIA 12Z RAOB DATA AND THIS INCREASING MOISTURE
COUPLED WITH THE APPROACH OF A COLD FRONT AND SOME UPPER LEVEL ENERGY
WILL LEAD TO INCREASING RAIN CHANCES THE REMAINDER OF TODAY. SIMILAR
TO YESTERDAY LACK OF SUFFICIENT INSTABILITY SHOULD PRECLUDE T-STORMS
WITH MAINLY SHOWERS AND AREAS OF LIGHT RAIN EXPECTED. IN ADDITION TO
THE RAIN AN INCREASING SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST WIND FLOW WILL LEAD TO BREEZY
CONDITIONS BY AFTERNOON AS THE GRADIENT TIGHTENS ACROSS THE REGION.
CURRENT FORECAST LOOKS IN GOOD SHAPE WITH NO MORNING UPDATE REQUIRED
AT THIS TIME.
AVIATION
VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD CONTINUE THROUGH THE LATE MORNING
HOURS AS CLOUDINESS INCREASES AND BASES LOWER. SHOWERS WILL THEN
MOVE INTO THE TERMINALS THIS AFTERNOON POSSIBLY CAUSING SOME MVFR
CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES. THE SHOWERS SHOULD THEN CLEAR OUT BY
MIDNIGHT BUT THE CLOUDINESS SHOULD CONTINUE THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT
HOURS.
MARINE
TIGHTENING GRADIENT AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT WILL ALLOW WINDS
AND SEAS TO INCREASE INTO THE SMALL CRAFT RANGE BY LATER THIS MORNING
WITH STRONG AND GUSTY WINDS AND ELEVATED SEAS CONTINUING TONIGHT
THROUGH WEDNESDAY IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT WITH ROUGH BOATING CONDITIONS
EXPECTED. ONGOING FORECAST HAS A GOOD HANDLE ON THESE EXPECTED TRENDS
AND NO CHANGES EXPECTED IN THE NEXT FORECAST ISSUANCE LATER THIS MORNING.
TBW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
FL...FIRE WEATHER WATCH WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON FOR CHARLOTTE-CITRUS-DE
SOTO-HARDEE-HERNANDO-HIGHLANDS-HILLSBOROUGH-LEE-LEVY-
MANATEE-PASCO-PINELLAS-POLK-SARASOTA-SUMTER.
GULF WATERS...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EST WEDNESDAY FOR BONITA BEACH
TO ENGLEWOOD OUT 20 NM-BONITA BEACH TO ENGLEWOOD OUT 20 TO
60 NM-ENGLEWOOD TO TARPON SPRINGS OUT 20 NM-ENGLEWOOD TO
TARPON SPRINGS OUT 20 TO 60 NM-TARPON SPRINGS TO SUWANNEE
RIVER OUT 20 NM-TARPON SPRINGS TO SUWANNEE RIVER OUT 20 TO
60 NM.
DISCUSSION/MARINE...57/MCMICHAEL
AVIATION...24/COLSON
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