071
FXUS62 KTBW 071820
AFDTBW
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAMPA BAY RUSKIN FL
120 PM EST SAT NOV 7 2009
..KEEPING AN EYE ON IDA
SHORT TERM (TONIGHT - MONDAY)
SIMILAR TO THE LAST FEW DAYS UPPER
RIDGING OVER THE DEEP SOUTH AND ATTENDANT SURFACE HIGH OVER THE MID
ATLANTIC REGION WILL MAINTAIN STABLE DRY CONDITIONS ACROSS THE ENTIRE
FORECAST AREA TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT. ON MONDAY AN INCREASE IN
CLOUDS ALONG WITH A FEW SHOWERS IS EXPECTED OVER CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN
LOCATIONS DURING THE DAY ESPECIALLY OVER COASTAL ZONES AS DEEPER
MOISTURE SPREADS NORTH INTO THE REGION ON A DEEP LAYERED SOUTHERLY
WIND FLOW AHEAD OF TROPICAL CYCLONE IDA WHICH IS FORECAST TO MOVE
INTO THE CENTRAL GULF.
CURRENT NHC TRACK OF IDA ALONG WITH THE LATEST MODEL DATA KEEPS IDA
WELL TO THE WEST OF THE FORECAST AREA ON MONDAY...AND IF IT TRACKS
EVEN FURTHER WEST...THEN SUBSIDENCE ON THE EASTERN SIDE OF THE STORM
WOULD KEEP RAIN CHANCES QUITE LOW FOR THE REGION. HOWEVER GIVEN THE
UNCERTAINTY IN ITS EXACT TRACK WILL DEPICT A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR SHOWERS
POPS 20% FOR NOW MAINLY ALONG COASTAL LOCATIONS WITH INLAND AREA
REMAINING DRY WITH POPS AT 10% OR LESS. OF COURSE IF THE STORMS DOES
TRACKS FURTHER EAST...THEN RAIN CHANCES WILL NEED TO BE ADJUSTED UPWARD
CONSIDERABLY IN LATER FORECASTS. REGARDLESS OF THE RAIN CHANCES THOUGH
INCREASING WIND FIELDS AND SHEAR ASSOCIATED WITH IDA WILL POSE AN INCREASED
RISK FOR TORNADOES ACROSS THE REGION...SO STAY TUNED. TEMPERATURES WILL
BE NEAR NORMAL ON SUNDAY...THEN RISE TO ABOVE NORMAL ON MONDAY.
LONG TERM (MONDAY NIGHT-SATURDAY)
THE BIG QUESTION FOR THE LONG
TERM WILL BE WHAT WILL HAPPEN WITH IDA. THE CURRENT FORECAST TAKES
IDA NORTHWARD THROUGH THE CENTRAL GULF ONCE IT MOVES INTO THE GOMEX
THROUGH TUESDAY WITH MOISTURE FROM THE SYSTEM LIFTING OVER THE AREA.
THIS WILL ALLOW FOR SCATTERED RAIN CHANCES ACROSS THE AREA. THE
SYSTEM IS THEN EXPECTED TO LINGER OVER THE NORTHERN GULF WATERS WED
AND THURS AS AN UPPER TROUGH AND SFC COLD FRONT PUSH INTO THE REGION
FROM THE NW. THIS WILL KEEP DEEP MOISTURE IN PLACE ACROSS THE AREA
THROUGH EARLY THURSDAY WITH SCATTERED RAIN CHANCES CONTINUING. IDA
SHOULD THEN GET CAUGHT UP IN THE UPPER SYSTEM AND LIFT OUT TO THE NE
THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK WITH GRADUAL CLEARING OF THE LOCAL AREA
AS STRONG AND DRY HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE REGION BEHIND IT.
SOMEWHAT COOLER AND DRIER AIR WILL THEN BE IN PLACE FOR FRIDAY AND
SATURDAY. ALL OF THIS IS HIGHLY DEPENDENT ON IDA'S TRACK. SHOULD IT
GO FURTHER WEST...THE LOCAL AREA MAY BE IN A MORE SUBSIDENT REGION
AND NOT SEE MUCH RAIN/WIND. SHOULD IT TRACK MORE EAST...RAIN AND
WINDS WILL NEED TO BE INCREASED. EITHER WAY HOWEVER...THE LOCAL AREA
WILL BE IN THE FAVORABLE REGION FOR AN INCREASED THREAT OF TORNADOES.
PLEASE STAY ADVISED OF THE LATEST NHC FORECASTS FOR IDA.
AVIATION
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS WITH
STRONG AND GUSTY EVENING WINDS DECREASING TO 7-11KTS OVERNIGHT.
WINDS WILL AGAIN INCREASE AND BECOME GUSTY FOR LATER SUNDAY MORNING
AND INTO THE EARLY AFTERNOON.
MARINE
A TIGHTENING PRESSURE GRADIENT (6-8MB) BETWEEN HIGH PRESSURE
TO THE NORTH AND TROPICAL CYCLONE IDA MOVING NORTH TOWARD THE SOUTHERN
GULF WILL CONTINUE TO SUPPORT ELEVATED WINDS AND SEAS WITH HAZARDOUS
BOATING CONDITIONS OVER THE ADJACENT GULF WATERS TONIGHT THROUGH
SUNDAY NIGHT. ON MONDAY WIND/SEAS WILL CONTINUE TO INCREASE AS IDA MOVES
FURTHER NORTH INTO THE CENTRAL GULF. THE GFS SHOWS WINDS IN THE 25
TO 30 KNOT RANGE WITH HIGHER GUSTS OVER MY OFFSHORE WATERS WHICH LOOKS
QUITE REASONABLE AT THE MOMENT GIVEN THE CURRENT TRACK OF IDA...SO WILL
DEPICT IN THE GRIDS AND MAINTAIN SMALL CRAFT HEADLINES FOR ALL WATERS
THROUGH TUESDAY. WINDS/SEAS MAY REMAIN ELEVATED TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH
THURSDAY AS THE IDA OR ITS REMNANTS LINGERS OVER THE WATERS THROUGH
THE PERIOD.
FIRE WEATHER
EASTERLY WIND FLOW WILL KEEP HUMIDITY VALUES ABOVE
CRITICAL LEVELS THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK...HOWEVER MODERATE TO STRONG
20 FOOT AND TRANSPORT WINDS COMBINED WITH MIXING HEIGHT IN THE 3-4KFT
RANGE WILL PRODUCE HIGH DISPERSION INDICES THROUGH THE PERIOD.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
TPA 64 83 67 86 / 5 10 10 20
FMY 66 83 68 86 / 5 10 10 20
GIF 63 80 67 85 / 5 10 10 10
SRQ 65 84 68 87 / 5 10 10 20
BKV 59 82 64 86 / 5 10 10 10
SPG 67 80 70 84 / 5 10 10 20
TBW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
FL...NONE.
GULF WATERS...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EST TUESDAY FOR
BONITA BEACH TO SUWANNEE RIVER OUT 60 NM.
SMALL CRAFT EXERCISE CAUTION TAMPA BAY WATERS.
SHORT TERM/MARINE/FIRE WEATHER...57/MCMICHAEL
LONG TERM/AVIATION...24/COLSON
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