739  
FXUS62 KTBW 270539  
AFDTBW  
 
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION  
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAMPA BAY RUSKIN FL  
139 AM EDT WED JUL 27 2016  
 
.AVIATION (27/06Z THROUGH 28/06Z) VFR CONDITIONS PREVAIL ACROSS WEST-  
CENTRAL FLORIDA EARLY THIS MORNING. CAN NOT RULE OUT A BRIEF SHOWER  
FOR KSRQ/KPIE BEFORE DAWN ASSOCIATED WITH LAND BREEZE  
CONVECTION...BUT WILL WAIT AND SEE HOW ANY STORMS EVOLVE BEFORE  
INCLUDING IN A TAF TIMEFRAME. OUTSIDE OF ANY COASTAL SHOWERS...VFR  
CONDITIONS PREVAIL THROUGH THE MORNING AND EARLY AFTERNOON HOURS. A  
SCATTERING OF TYPICAL SUMMER STORMS CAN BE EXPECTED...MAINLY AFTER  
19Z. STORMS COME TO AN END WITHIN A FEW HOURS OF SUNSET...WITH  
PREVAILING VFR CONDITIONS AT ALL TERMINALS INTO THURSDAY MORNING.  
 

 
   
PREV DISCUSSION
 
/ISSUED 939 PM EDT TUE JUL 26 2016/  
 
UPDATE...  
THE CURRENT SYNOPTIC PATTERN ALOFT FEATURES AN AREA OF HIGH  
PRESSURE OVER THE CAROLINAS WITH LOW PRESSURE SOUTHWEST OF THE  
STATE. OUR REGION RESIDES IN BETWEEN THESE FEATURES WITH A  
SOUTHEAST FLOW ALOFT. AT THE SURFACE, THE ATLANTIC RIDGE AXIS  
REMAINS STRETCHED ACROSS THE CENTRAL PENINSULA. A BIT OF DRIER AIR  
MOVING OVER THE AREA ALOFT TODAY KEPT CONVECTION A BIT LIMITED,  
AND THERE ARE JUST A FEW CELLS REMAINING. EXPECT THESE TO  
DISSIPATE WITHIN THE NEXT FEW HOURS, WITH ADDITIONAL DEVELOPMENT  
EXPECTED OVER THE COASTAL WATERS AND POSSIBLY THE IMMEDIATE COAST  
WITH THE LAND BREEZE. HAVE UPDATED THE FORECAST POPS BASED ON  
ONGOING TRENDS, WITH MINOR TWEAKS ELSEWHERE.  
 
MARINE...  
HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE REGION WILL KEEP RELATIVELY LIGHT SOUTHEAST  
TO SOUTH WINDS IN PLACE FOR THE NEXT FEW DAYS, WITH WINDS BECOMING  
ONSHORE NEAR THE COAST WITH THE SEA BREEZE. BOTH WINDS AND SEAS  
ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN BELOW HEADLINES, THOUGH DAILY THUNDERSTORMS  
COULD PRODUCE BRIEFLY HIGHER WINDS AND WAVES.  
 

 
   
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
 
 
TPA 93 79 93 79 / 20 20 20 10  
FMY 94 77 94 77 / 30 20 20 10  
GIF 95 76 96 76 / 20 20 20 10  
SRQ 92 78 92 77 / 20 20 20 10  
BKV 95 74 96 75 / 20 20 20 10  
SPG 93 80 93 80 / 20 20 20 10  
 

 
   
TBW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
 
 
FL...NONE.  
GULF WATERS...NONE.  
 

 
 

 
 
AVIATION...MROCZKA  
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...CARLISLE  
 
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