831
FXUS62 KTBW 191259
AFDTBW
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAMPA BAY RUSKIN FL
859 AM EDT FRI APR 19 2024
..NEW UPDATE
UPDATE
ISSUED AT 853 AM EDT FRI APR 19 2024
MOST OF THE LOW CLOUDS HAVE LIFTED ACROSS THE AREA AND BEAUTIFUL
SKIES ARE ANTICIPATED THROUGH THE DAY. THIS IS THANKS TO A FAIRLY
DRY AIRMASS OVER THE PENINSULA AS HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO
DOMINATE WEATHER CONDITIONS. LIGHT WINDS SHOULD PREVAIL UNTIL THE
AFTERNOON WHEN THE SEA BREEZE MOVES IN AND WINDS BECOME ONSHORE.
SLIGHTLY WARMER CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WITH HIGHS CLIMBING UP
INTO THE UPPER 80S AND LOW 90S.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 223 AM EDT FRI APR 19 2024
LOW AMPLITUDE PATTERN ACROSS THE CONUS WILL GRADUALLY AMPLIFY OVER
THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS AS A SOUTHERN STREAM DISTURBANCE MOVES
QUICKLY ACROSS THE DESERT SOUTHWEST TONIGHT AND SATURDAY, AND THE
SOUTHERN PLAINS/LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY
AS IT COMES IN-PHASE WITH A WEAK NORTHERN STREAM DISTURBANCE.
THIS WILL PUSH ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST U.S. ON MONDAY, AND OFF THE
MID ATLANTIC COAST MONDAY NIGHT.
IN THE SHORT TERM, HIGH PRESSURE WILL HOLD OVER THE FORECAST AREA
TODAY AND SATURDAY WITH PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES AND DRY, VERY WARM
CONDITIONS. INCREASING CLOUDINESS SUNDAY AS A COLD FRONT
ASSOCIATED WITH THE U/L DISTURBANCE WILL MOVE ACROSS THE
FLORIDA PENINSULA SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY WITH A CHANCE OF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS, WITH THE BEST CHANCE OF RAIN ACROSS THE
NATURE COAST AND INTERIOR. WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER
WEST CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST FLORIDA IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT
TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY WITH DRIER COOLER AIR ADVECTING ACROSS THE
FORECAST AREA.
AVIATION
(12Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 731 AM EDT FRI APR 19 2024
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED TROUGH THE PERIOD WITH LIGHT AND VARIABLE
WINDS OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS. THEN, THE SEA BREEZE WILL SHIFT
WINDS ONSHORE DURING THE LATE MORNING/EARLY AFTERNOON.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
TPA 87 68 87 70 / 0 0 0 0
FMY 88 69 89 70 / 0 0 0 0
GIF 93 65 92 67 / 0 0 0 0
SRQ 88 67 87 68 / 0 0 0 0
BKV 88 60 88 62 / 0 0 0 0
SPG 85 71 84 71 / 0 0 0 0
TBW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
FL...NONE.
GULF WATERS...NONE.
UPDATE/DISCUSSION/AVIATION...DELERME/OGLESBY
DECISION SUPPORT/UPPER AIR...ANDERSON
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