806  
FXUS62 KTBW 261921  
AFDTBW  
 
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION  
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAMPA BAY RUSKIN FL  
321 PM EDT WED APR 26 2017  
   
SHORT TERM (TONIGHT-THURSDAY)
 
 
MID/UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL SWING THROUGH THE MISSISSIPPI  
AND OHIO VALLEYS MOVING BY TO THE NORTH OF THE REGION WITH ITS  
ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT WEAKENING AND DISSIPATING BEFORE IT REACHES  
THE FORECAST AREA. THE MID/UPPER LEVEL DYNAMICS WILL REMAIN WELL TO  
THE NORTH OF THE AREA AND WITH LIMITED MOISTURE NOT EXPECTING ANY  
PRECIPITATION. WHAT WE WILL SEE HOWEVER IS AN INCREASE TEMPERATURES  
AND HUMIDITY AS THE SOUTHEAST TO SOUTH FLOW CONTINUES AROUND SURFACE  
HIGH PRESSURE RIDGING WEST FROM WELL OUT IN THE ATLANTIC OCEAN WITH  
A SHIFT TO SOUTHWEST NEAR THE COAST AS THE SEA BREEZE DEVELOPS  
THURSDAY AFTERNOON. THE INCREASE IN LOW LEVEL MOISTURE ALONG WITH  
THE MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES COULD LEAD TO SOME PATCHY FOG OVER INLAND  
AREAS LATE TONIGHT. OTHERWISE TEMPERATURES WILL BE ABOVE NORMAL WITH  
LOWS IN THE MID 60S TO AROUND 70 TONIGHT AND CLIMBING INTO THE MID  
80S COAST TO THE LOWER 90S INLAND THURSDAY.  
   
MID TERM/LONG TERM (THURSDAY NIGHT - WEDNESDAY)
 
 
AN UPPER LEVEL LOW SITS OVER NORTHERN MINNESOTA WITH BROAD  
TROUGHING EXTENDING OVER THE WESTERN HALF OF THE U.S. UPPER LEVEL  
RIDGING CONTINUES TO HOLD OVER THE FLORIDA PENINSULA INTO THE LONG  
TERM PERIOD. THE TROUGHING OVER THE WESTERN U.S. WILL FURTHER  
DEEPEN BY SATURDAY AS A CLOSED UPPER LOW MOVES SOUTHEAST AND WILL  
BE LOCATED OVER THE FOUR CORNERS REGION. AS THE TROUGH OUT WEST  
DEEPENS, THE RIDGE OVER THE SOUTHEAST U.S. WILL STRENGTHEN AND  
BUILD NORTHEASTWARD TOWARD BERMUDA. THE PATTERN SHIFTS EAST BY THE  
BEGINNING OF NEXT WEEK WITH THE CLOSED UPPER LOW NOW LOCATED OVER  
THE GREAT LAKES REGION AND THE UPPER RIDGE MOVING EAST INTO THE  
WESTERN ATLANTIC. THE UPPER LOW MOVES NORTHEAST BY MIDWEEK AND A  
QUASI-ZONAL FLOW SETS UP OVER FLORIDA.  
 
ON THE SURFACE, AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE OVER ONTARIO EXTENDS A COLD  
FRONT SOUTHWARD ALONG THE EAST COAST. THIS FRONT DISSIPATES OVER  
NORTHERN FLORIDA AS HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO RIDGE ACROSS THE  
PENINSULA THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK AND INTO THE WEEKEND. THIS  
WILL KEEP A SOUTHEAST THROUGH SOUTHWEST WIND FLOW OVER THE AREA  
WHICH WILL RESULT IN ABOVE AVERAGE TEMPERATURES WITH THE INLAND  
COUNTIES SEEING DAYTIME HIGHS IN THE 90'S. RAIN FREE CONDITIONS WILL  
ALSO CONTINUE THROUGH SUNDAY. AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPS OVER  
MISSOURI ON SUNDAY AND EXTENDS A COLD FRONT SOUTH THROUGH LOUISIANA  
AND EASTERN TEXAS. THIS SYSTEM TRACKS EAST AND WILL BRING INCREASING  
RAIN CHANCES (30-50 POPS) TO FLORIDA ON MONDAY AND TUESDAY.  
 

 
   
AVIATION
 
 
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS WITH SOME  
SCATTERED TO OCCASIONAL BROKEN CEILINGS BETWEEN 5000 AND 7000 FEET  
THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING. SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST AT AROUND 10  
KNOTS WILL DIMINISH THIS EVENING AND BACK TO SOUTHEAST OVERNIGHT  
AND THEN INCREASE OUT OF THE SOUTH AGAIN THURSDAY MORNING.  
 

 
   
MARINE
 
 
SOUTHEAST TO SOUTH FLOW WILL PERSIST INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH A  
SHIFT TO SOUTHWEST NEAR THE COAST EACH AFTERNOON. WINDS WILL  
GENERALLY REMAIN AROUND 15 KNOTS OR LESS WITH SEAS 3 FEET OR LESS.  
WINDS COULD REACH EXERCISE CAUTION CRITERIA LATE TONIGHT AND  
EARLY THURSDAY MORNING ACROSS THE NORTHERN WATERS FOR A SHORT  
PERIOD AND THEN ACROSS THE OFFSHORE WATERS SATURDAY NIGHT AND  
SUNDAY NIGHT.  
 

 
   
FIRE WEATHER
 
 
RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES ARE EXPECTED TO DIP INTO THE MIDDLE AND  
UPPER 30S EACH AFTERNOON THROUGH THE WEEKEND, BUT CRITICAL  
DURATIONS ARE NOT EXPECTED AND SUSTAINED WINDS SHOULD REMAIN LESS  
THAN 15 MPH. THEREFORE, NO RED FLAG CONDITIONS ARE ANTICIPATED.  
 

 
   
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
 
 
TPA 73 88 73 90 / 0 0 0 10  
FMY 69 91 72 92 / 0 0 0 10  
GIF 67 93 71 95 / 0 0 0 20  
SRQ 70 86 71 86 / 0 0 0 10  
BKV 63 91 66 93 / 0 0 0 20  
SPG 73 85 75 89 / 0 0 0 10  
 

 
   
TBW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
 
 
FL...NONE.  
GULF WATERS...NONE.  

 
 

 
 
SHORT TERM/AVIATION/MARINE/FIRE WEATHER...69/CLOSE  
MID TERM/LONG TERM/DECISION SUPPORT...74/WYNN  
 
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.

The Nexlab FL Page Main Text Page