271  
FXUS62 KTBW 281332  
AFDTBW  
 
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION  
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAMPA BAY RUSKIN FL  
932 AM EDT WED JUN 28 2017  
   
UPDATE
 
 
DISSIPATING BOUNDARY ACROSS NORTH FLORIDA WITH HIGH PRESSURE  
MOVING ACROSS THE EASTERN U.S. WILL BEGIN THE TRANSITION TO A  
MORE EAST TO NORTHEAST FLOW ACROSS THE REGION TODAY. CAN SEE THIS  
WIND SHIFT IN THE SURFACE OBSERVATIONS AND VISIBLE SATELLITE  
IMAGERY AS THE LOW CLOUDS ARE MOVING SOUTHWEST ACROSS THE NATURE  
COAST INTO POLK COUNTY AND EAST CENTRAL FLORIDA. THIS PUSH WILL  
LIMIT THE SEA BREEZE DEVELOPMENT ALONG THE NATURE COAST THIS  
AFTERNOON WHILE FURTHER SOUTH STILL EXPECT A SHIFT TO WEST AND  
NORTHWEST FOR A FEW HOURS BEFORE GOING TO EAST TO NORTHEAST AGAIN  
EARLY THIS EVENING. STILL PLENTY OF MOISTURE IN PLACE SO WITH THE  
DEVELOPMENT OF THE BAY/SEA BREEZES WILL SEE SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS  
CONVECTION DEVELOP AND MOVE TOWARD THE WEST THIS AFTERNOON AND  
EVENING. OVERALL THE GRIDS/ZONE FORECAST LOOK OK AND ONLY MADE  
SOME MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO WINDS AND TEMPERATURES FOR TODAY.  
 

 
   
AVIATION
 
 
SOME AREAS MVFR CEILINGS WILL BE POSSIBLE DURING MID TO LATE  
MORNING ONCE DAYTIME HEATING GETS UNDERWAY, THEN SCATTERED  
CONVECTION THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING WILL CAUSE MVFR/LOCAL IFR  
CONDITIONS. LIGHT WINDS WILL BECOME EAST TO NORTHEAST THIS  
MORNING, THEN SHIFT TO WEST TO NORTHWEST AT THE COASTAL TAF SITES  
OF TPA, PIE, SRQ THIS AFTERNOON AS THE SEA BREEZE DEVELOPS. EAST  
COAST SEA BREEZE WILL MOVE WESTWARD EARLY THIS EVENING SHIFTING  
WINDS BACK TO EAST TO NORTHEAST AT ALL SITES.  
 

 
   
MARINE
 
 
EAST TO NORTHEAST FLOW WILL BECOME ESTABLISHED ACROSS THE NORTHERN  
WATERS TODAY AS HIGH PRESSURE WELL TO THE NORTH BUILDS SOUTH.  
OTHERWISE, THE RATHER LIGHT WINDS WILL SHIFT TO ONSHORE WITH THE  
SEA BREEZE FURTHER SOUTH BEFORE SHIFTING BACK TO EASTERLY AND  
INCREASING SOME TONIGHT. THE EAST TO SOUTHEAST FLOW WILL THEN  
CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT FEW DAYS WITH A SHIFT TO ONSHORE WITH THE  
SEA BREEZE DURING EACH AFTERNOON. ONLY MARINE HAZARD WILL BE  
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS, WHICH COULD LOCALLY ENHANCE  
WINDS AND SEAS, AND PRODUCE HEAVY RAINFALL AND FREQUENT LIGHTNING.  
 

 
   
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
 
 
TPA 90 77 91 77 / 50 40 40 20  
FMY 92 75 91 75 / 40 30 40 30  
GIF 91 74 93 75 / 60 30 50 30  
SRQ 90 75 90 77 / 30 20 30 20  
BKV 90 73 91 74 / 50 40 50 20  
SPG 90 78 91 79 / 40 30 30 20  
 

 
   
TBW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
 
 
FL...NONE.  
GULF WATERS...NONE.  

 
 

 
 
UPDATE/AVIATION/MARINE/FIRE WEATHER...69/CLOSE  
UPPER AIR...27/SHIVELEY  
DECISION SUPPORT...05/CARLISLE  
 
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