899  
FXUS62 KTBW 200104  
AFDTBW  
 
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION  
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAMPA BAY RUSKIN FL  
804 PM EST THU JAN 19 2017  
   
..STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS POSSIBLE ON SUNDAY
 
   
..VERY HAZARDOUS MARINE CONDITIONS DEVELOPING ON SUNDAY
 
   
..COASTAL FLOODING POSSIBLE SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT
 
 
   
SHORT TERM (TONIGHT)
 
 
RIDGING ALOFT THE EASTERN GULF OF MEXICO AND THE SOUTHEAST  
U.S. WILL CONTINUE AS A WEAK SHORT WAVE TROUGH CROSSES THE  
NORTHERN END OF FL LATER TONIGHT. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE  
CENTERED OVER THE BAHAMAS WILL REACH ACROSS THE STATE AND  
OUT OVER THE GULF.  
 
THE SHORT WAVE TROUGH ALONG WILL SOME DEEPER MOISTURE WILL SUPPORT  
SLIGHT CHANCE TO A CHANCE OF SHOWERS FOR THE FAR NORTHERN COUNTIES  
AND THE NORTHERN MARINE ZONES. THE SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE EXTENDING  
ACROSS FL WILL KEEP WINDS LIGHT TO CALM WHICH ALONG WITH LOW LEVEL  
MOISTURE WILL SUPPORT PATCHY TO LOCALLY DENSE FOG ACROSS LAND  
AREAS LATER TONIGHT. THE FOG WILL BEGIN TO LIFT SHORTLY AFTER  
SUNRISE FRI. FORECAST ARE ON TRACK FOR TONIGHT WITH NO UPDATES  
PLANNED.  
 

 
   
AVIATION
 
 
20/00Z-21/00Z. VFR WILL PREVAIL THROUGH EARLY TONIGHT THEN GIVE WAY  
TO MVFR/LCL IFR AFT 06Z AS FOG FORMS. THE MOST EXTENSIVE FOG  
IS EXPECTED AT LAL AND PGD. THE FOG WILL LIFT IN A 14-15Z  
WINDOW FOLLOWED BY VFR UNDER SCT-BKN CLOUDS. LIGHT AND  
MOSTLY SOUTHERLY WINDS BECOME S-SW AND INCREASE SLIGHTLY  
FRI AFTERNOON.  
 

 
   
MARINE
 
 
HIGH PRESSURE WILL PROVIDE TRANQUIL BOATING CONDITIONS ON THE WATERS  
THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT...ALTHOUGH THERE MAY BE SOME SEA FOG LATE FRI  
NIGHT INTO EARLY SAT MORNING. HOWEVER...WINDS WILL BEGIN TO INCREASE  
SAT AS A STORM SYSTEM MOVES OUT OF THE SOUTHERN PLAINS AND THROUGH  
THE DEEP SOUTH DURING THE WEEKEND...SWEEPING A STRONG COLD FRONT  
OVER THE GULF AND THROUGH THE STATE. SIGNIFICANTLY DETERIORATING  
WEATHER WILL BEGIN TO IMPACT THE AREA...MARINERS SHOULD STAY  
UP TO DATE WITH THE LATEST FORECASTS.  
 

 
   
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
 
 
TPA 64 76 66 79 / 10 10 10 10  
FMY 61 77 64 82 / 0 10 10 10  
GIF 61 80 63 83 / 0 10 10 10  
SRQ 63 74 64 78 / 10 10 10 10  
BKV 60 77 61 81 / 10 10 10 10  
SPG 64 73 66 78 / 10 10 10 10  
 

 
   
TBW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
 
 
FL...BEACH HAZARDS STATEMENT THROUGH MONDAY EVENING FOR COASTAL  
MANATEE-COASTAL SARASOTA.  
 
GULF WATERS...NONE.  

 
 

 
 
SHORT TERM/AVIATION/MARINE...09/RUDE  
UPPER AIR...27/SHIVELEY  
DECISION SUPPORT...84/AUSTIN  
 
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