254
FXUS62 KTBW 110009
AFDTBW
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAMPA BAY RUSKIN FL
809 PM EDT SAT OCT 10 2026
..NEW UPDATE, AVIATION, MARINE
KEY MESSAGES
- HAZARDOUS BEACH CONDITIONS WITH DANGEROUS RIP CURRENTS CONTINUE
THROUGH SUNDAY EVENING.
- A SLIGHT RISK FOR EXCESSIVE RAINFALL ACROSS THE NATURE COAST
INTO THE TAMPA BAY AREA THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING WITH A MARGINAL
RISK ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF THE REGION. THERE IS A THREAT FOR
LOCALIZED FLOODING FROM HEAVY RAINFALL.
UPDATE
ISSUED AT 801 PM EDT SAT OCT 10 2026
RAIN AND STORM BANDS HAVE BEEN MOVING THROUGH THE EASTERN GULF
WATERS AND WEST CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST FLORIDA THROUGH THE AFTERNOON
AND EVENING. MOST OF THESE HAVE BEEN RELATIVELY FAST MOVING AND
BENIGN AND NOT CAUSING ANY CONCERNS, EXCEPT FOR A FEW TRAINING
SHOWERS AND STORMS OVER WESTERN LEE COUNTY WHERE SOME STORM TOTALS
OF 3+ INCHES HAVE BEEN OBSERVED. THIS TREND IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE
OVERNIGHT AND INTO SUNDAY WITH A POTENTIAL FOR SOME HEAVY DOWNPOURS
AND LOCALIZED FLOODING. MADE SOME SLIGHT CHANGES TO THE POPS FOR THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS BASED ON LATEST RADAR TRENDS AND MODEL GUIDANCE,
OTHERWISE FORECAST LOOKS GOOD FOR NOW.
AVIATION
(00Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 801 PM EDT SAT OCT 10 2026
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PREVAIL OUTSIDE OF ANY SHOWERS AND
STORMS. THE BROKEN BAND OF FAST MOVING SHOWERS AND ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE MOVING SOUTH TO NORTH OVER THE
AREA THIS EVENING INTO SUNDAY. WILL COVER THIS WITH VCSH OVERNIGHT
AND THEN VCTS AFTER 15Z ON SUNDAY. SOME BRIEF MVFR TO IFR CIGS/VSBYS
POSSIBLE IN PASSING SHOWERS AND STORMS. THE GUSTY SOUTH-SOUTHWEST
WINDS WE HAVE SEEN EARLIER TODAY WILL SUBSIDE TO LESS THAN 10 KNOTS
OVERNIGHT AND ON SUNDAY.
MARINE
ISSUED AT 801 PM EDT SAT OCT 10 2026
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE OVERNIGHT AND
INTO SUNDAY. THE GOOD NEWS IS THAT WINDS ARE DECREASING AND SEAS ARE
GRADUALLY ABATING OVER THE EASTERN GULF WATERS IN THE WAKE OF
HURRICANE ISAIAS. MARINERS SHOULD STILL USE CAUTION WHEN ON THE
EASTERN GULF WATERS AS SEAS WILL REMAIN AROUND 3-6 FEET THROUGH
SUNDAY MORNING, ESPECIALLY OVER THE NORTHEASTERN GULF WATERS.
IMPROVING CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE LATE SUNDAY AND INTO NEXT WEEK AS
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE REGION MONDAY AND HOLD ACROSS THE GULF
THROUGH THE WEEK WITH DRY AND BENIGN MARINE CONDITIONS EXPECTED.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
TPA 78 85 72 86 / 50 70 0 0
FMY 78 87 75 87 / 40 50 20 10
GIF 76 88 68 87 / 30 50 10 0
SRQ 78 86 73 85 / 50 70 10 0
BKV 76 85 65 86 / 50 70 0 0
SPG 79 85 74 85 / 50 70 0 0
TBW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
FL...HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK THROUGH SUNDAY EVENING FOR COASTAL
CHARLOTTE-COASTAL HILLSBOROUGH-COASTAL LEE-COASTAL MANATEE-
COASTAL SARASOTA-PINELLAS.
GULF WATERS...NONE.
UPDATE/AVIATION/MARINE...WYNN
DECISION SUPPORT/UPPER AIR/CLIMATE...FLEMING
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