473  
FXUS62 KTBW 260530  
AFDTBW  
 
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION  
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAMPA BAY RUSKIN FL  
130 AM EDT FRI AUG 26 2016  
   
AVIATION
 
 
MAINLY VFR NEXT 24 HOURS. THERE COULD BE SOME MVFR CEILINGS  
BETWEEN 09Z AND 15Z, BUT CONFIDENCE NOT HIGH ENOUGH TO INCLUDE IN  
TAFS AT THIS TIME. TYPICAL SUMMER-TIME STORMS EXPECTED THIS  
AFTERNOON WITH BRIEF IFR/LIFR POSSIBLE 18Z TO 24Z.  
 

 
   
PREV DISCUSSION
 
/ISSUED 819 PM EDT THU AUG 25 2016/  
 
UPDATE...  
HIGH PRESSURE SURFACE AND ALOFT TO THE NORTH OF THE STATE COMBINED  
WITH LOWER PRESSURE OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN BAHAMAS (INVEST 99L)  
IS SUPPORTING A 4MB GRADIENT FROM KMFL NORTH TO KJAX THIS EVENING.  
THIS GRADIENT IS SUPPORTING A MODERATE NORTHEAST TO EAST WIND  
FLOW OVER THE ENTIRE FORECAST AREA WHICH WILL CONTINUE THROUGH  
FRIDAY. SIMILAR TO YESTERDAY MUCH DRIER MID LEVEL AIR AND  
SUBSIDENCE KEPT MOST OF THE CENTRAL AND ALL OF THE NORTHERN  
SECTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA DRY DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS,  
WHILE SCATTERED SHOWERS AND A FEW STORMS WERE NOTED ACROSS  
SOUTHERN LOCATIONS WHERE MUCH DEEPER MOISTURE CONTINUES TO RESIDE.  
 
EARLY THIS EVENING 88D RETURNS SHOW THAT THE AFTERNOON CONVECTION  
HAS ALREADY ENDED ACROSS THE REGION WITH REMNANT SHOWERS AND  
STORMS NOTED OVER THE ADJACENT GULF WATERS. AS FOR THE REST OF  
TONIGHT EXPECT MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS WITH CONVECTIVE DEBRIS  
CLOUDINESS ACROSS SOUTH-CENTRAL ZONES THINNING WITH CLEAR TO  
PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES EXPECTED OVERNIGHT. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN  
QUITE MILD WITH LOWS FALLING INTO THE MID 70S OVER INLAND AREAS,  
AND UPPER 70S TO AROUND 80 ALONG THE COAST. WILL REMOVE EARLY  
EVENING RAIN CHANCE WORDING IN A MID EVENING UPDATE, OTHERWISE NO  
OTHER GRID OR ZONE CHANGES PLANNED AT THIS TIME  
 
AVIATION...  
SHRA/TSRA MAY BRING BRIEF MVFR CONDITIONS TO THE TERMINALS AFTER  
18Z ON FRIDAY AND HAVE HANDLED WITH VCTS FOR NOW, OTHERWISE VFR  
WILL PREVAIL DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS. SURFACE WINDS WILL BE FROM  
THE EAST-NORTHEAST AT 6 TO 10 KNOTS WITH HIGHER GUSTS IN THE  
VICINITY OF TSRA.  
 
MARINE...  
HIGH PRESSURE NORTH OF THE WATERS AND LOWER PRESSURE OVER THE  
SOUTHEASTERN BAHAMAS WILL MAINTAIN MODERATE NORTHEAST TO EAST  
WINDS IN THE 10 TO 15 KNOT RANGE NEAR SHORE, AND 15 TO 20 KNOTS  
OFFSHORE THE REMAINDER OF TONIGHT ALONG WITH SEAS OF 2 TO 4 FEET  
WITH CHOPPY BAY AND INLAND WATERWAYS. WILL ADD CAUTIONARY  
HEADLINES TO THE OFFSHORE WATERS GIVEN CURRENT AND EXPECTED WIND  
AND SEA STATES FOR THE REMAINDER OF TONIGHT, OTHERWISE THE REST OF  
THE FORECAST IS ON TRACK WITH NO ADDITIONAL CHANGES REQUIRED AT  
THIS TIME.  
 
MARINERS SHOULD CONTINUE TO MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF A TROPICAL  
WAVE (INVEST 99L) OVER THE SOUTHEAST BAHAMAS WHICH IS FORECAST TO  
MOVE WEST-NORTHWEST TOWARD THE FLORIDA KEYS AND SOUTHEASTERN GULF  
OF MEXICO DURING THE UPCOMING WEEKEND. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION  
ON THIS SYSTEM SEE THE LATEST TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK BEING  
ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER IN MIAMI.  
 

 
   
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
 
 
TPA 92 77 92 78 / 40 10 50 10  
FMY 92 77 91 77 / 60 30 60 20  
GIF 92 76 91 76 / 40 10 50 10  
SRQ 92 77 93 78 / 50 30 50 20  
BKV 92 75 92 75 / 40 10 60 10  
SPG 92 79 92 80 / 40 20 50 10  
 

 
   
TBW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
 
 
FL...NONE.  
GULF WATERS...NONE.  

 
 

 
 
AVIATION...JILLSON  
 
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