879  
FXUS62 KTBW 311327  
AFDTBW  
 
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION  
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAMPA BAY RUSKIN FL  
927 AM EDT TUE MAY 31 2016  
   
SHORT TERM (THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON)
 
 
A MID/UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WAS OVER THE SOUTHEAST U.S. AND FL.  
ATLANTIC HIGH PRESSURE RIDGED WESTWARD WITH A RELAXED GRADIENT AND  
AN AXIS THROUGH CENTRAL FL. POST TROPICAL BONNIE WAS ALONG THE SC  
COAST. THE 12Z TBW RAOB CAME IN WITH A PWAT VALUE OF 1.46  
INCHES...A FRACTION ABOVE NORMAL...AND LIGHT STEERING FLOW.  
 
CURRENTLY SKIES ARE CLEAR WITH CALM/LIGHT WINDS ALTHOUGH A FEW  
COASTAL LOCATIONS HAVE BECOME WESTERLY. WITH THE AVAILABLE  
MOISTURE...LIGHT FLOW BUT WESTERLY AT THE SURFACE...AND DAYTIME  
HEATING ANTICIPATE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS STARTING AROUND 1 OR  
2 PM THEN PUSHING INLAND THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. THE HIGHEST  
CHANCES ARE EXPECTED INLAND AND IN THE SOUTH. CURRENT FORECAST  
LOOKS GOOD WITH NO UPDATES.  
   
AVIATION
 
 
31/13Z-01/12Z. PREVAILING VFR TIL 16Z THEN BRIEF MVFR POSSIBLE AS  
SHRA AND TSRA FORM ALONG EASTWARD MOVING SEA BREEZE. WINDS CALM TO  
LIGHT EASTERLY THIS MORNING SHIFT TO ONSHORE IN THE AFTERNOON AT  
UP TO 8KT ALTHOUGH TSRA GUSTS COULD REACH 40KT. WINDS BECOME LIGHT  
AND VARIABLE AFT SUNSET.  
 

 
   
MARINE
 
 
AN AXIS OF RELAXED HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS FL TODAY WILL PROVIDE  
WINDS IN THE 5 TO 10 KNOTS RANGE...NORTHWEST TO WEST FROM NORTH OF  
TARPON SPRINGS BUT BECOMING WESTERLY LATE MORNING TO EARLY  
AFTERNOON SOUTH OF THERE. AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORMS WILL STAY AT THE  
COAST. NEXT FORECAST OUT BY 10 AM WITH LITTLE CHANGE.  
 

 
   
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
 
 
TPA 89 74 91 75 / 30 10 30 10  
FMY 88 72 89 74 / 30 30 40 20  
GIF 90 71 91 73 / 50 30 40 20  
SRQ 86 73 87 74 / 20 10 20 10  
BKV 89 70 90 69 / 30 10 30 10  
SPG 87 76 89 77 / 20 10 20 10  
 

 
   
TBW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
 
 
FL...NONE.  
GULF WATERS...NONE.  

 
 

 
 
SHORT TERM/AVIATION/MARINE...09/RUDE  
DECISION SUPPORT...84/AUSTIN  
UPPER AIR...007/DOUGHERTY  
 
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