115  
FXUS62 KTAE 181450  
AFDTAE  
 
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION  
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL  
1050 AM EDT WED JUL 18 2018  
   
UPDATE
 
 
12Z TAE SOUNDING SHOWS A PW VALUE OF 1.97 INCHES, SLIGHTLY ABOVE  
NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR. ALREADY HAVE WIDESPREAD SHOWERS  
ACROSS THE MARINE AREA WITH SOME CONVECTION ACROSS THE BIG BEND.  
WILL CONTINUE TO SEE CONVECTION LIMITED TO FLORIDA COUNTIES MAINLY  
THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS WITH ACTIVITY DEVELOPING NORTHWARD  
DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS. MAIN THREAT TODAY WILL BE LOCALIZED  
FLOODING WITH ANY OF THE HEAVY RAIN OR TRAINING OF STORMS. OVERALL  
THE FORECAST IS ON TRACK AND THE MAIN CHANGE WAS TO ADJUST THE  
CLOUD COVERAGE DOWNWARD INITIALLY ACROSS THE TLH TO VLD AREA.  
 

 
   
PREV DISCUSSION [611 AM EDT]
 
 
   
NEAR TERM [THROUGH TODAY]
 
 
DEEP LAYER MOISTURE WILL REMAIN IN PLACE ACROSS OUR AREA TODAY,  
ESPECIALLY FROM THE FL PANHANDLE TO SOUTH CENTRAL GA AND POINTS  
SOUTHWARD WHERE PW VALUES ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN ABOVE 2". SHOWERS  
AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE IN COVERAGE NEAR THE GULF  
COAST THIS MORNING, LIKELY BECOMING WIDESPREAD FROM SUNRISE THROUGH  
THE LATE MORNING OVER THE COASTAL FL BIG BEND WITH DECREASING  
CHANCES FARTHER NORTH AND WEST. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS  
WILL INCREASE IN COVERAGE ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF OUR AREA DURING  
THE AFTERNOON AND PERSIST THROUGH THE EARLY EVENING AS INSTABILITY  
INCREASES, WITH SBCAPE FROM 1500-2500 EXPECTED. SOME MID-LEVEL DRY  
AIR WILL REMAIN IN PLACE ACROSS OUR NORTHWESTERN AREAS THROUGH THE  
AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS, BUT A QUASI-STATIONARY FRONT ACROSS  
SOUTHERN/CENTRAL AL AND GA WILL PROVIDE ENOUGH FORCING FOR SCATTERED  
SHOWERS AND STORMS IN THESE AREAS AS WELL.  
 
WITH THE DEEP LAYER MOISTURE IN PLACE ACROSS MUCH OF NORTHERN FL AND  
SOUTHERN GA ALONG WITH WEAK STEERING FLOW, ISOLATED FLASH FLOODING  
CANNOT BE RULED OUT LATER TODAY. SEVERE WEATHER IS NOT LIKELY,  
ALTHOUGH A FEW DOWNBURSTS COULD PRODUCE STRONG WINDS IN  
THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING. SEASONABLY HOT AND  
HUMID CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL ACROSS OUR AREA, WITH HIGHS RANGING  
FROM THE UPPER 80S TO LOWER 90S.  
 
   
SHORT TERM [TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY]
 
 
THE MOIST AIRMASS IN PLACE IS NOT EXPECTED TO LEAVE THE REGION AS  
A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE OVER THE EASTERN UNITED STATES REMAINS IN  
PLACE ALONG WITH MOIST DEEP LAYER SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW. RAIN  
CHANCES WILL REMAIN ABOVE NORMAL THROUGH THE REST OF THE WEEK. SCATTERED  
TO WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP NEAR THE  
COASTAL REGIONS IN THE MID MORNING HOURS AND MOVE INLAND THROUGH  
THE LATE MORNING AND EARLY AFTERNOON HOURS.  
 
WHILE THIS PATTERN DOESN'T SUGGEST A WIDESPREAD FLOODING RAIN  
THREAT, THE VERY MOIST AIRMASS WILL SUPPORT INCREASED RAINFALL  
RATES AT TIMES. ESPECIALLY IN SLOW MOVING STORMS AND MERGERS.  
REMEMBER TO TURN AROUND AND DON'T DROWN SHOULD YOU COME ACROSS ANY  
FLOODED ROADS.  
 
TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN IN THE UPPER 80S AND LOW 90S THE NEXT  
SEVERAL DAYS.  
 
   
LONG TERM [FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY]
 
 
THE ACTIVE WEATHER PATTERN SHOWS NO SIGNS OF LETTING THROUGH AT  
LEAST THE WEEKEND. THE LARGE SCALE CIRCULATION OVER THE US SHOWS A  
LARGE RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE AMPLIFYING THROUGH THE WEEKEND OVER  
THE WESTERN US, AND IN RESPONSE, A DEEPENING TROUGH OF LOW  
PRESSURE WILL DEVELOP OVER THE EASTERN US INTO THE START OF NEXT  
WEEK. AHEAD OF THIS, DEEP LAYER SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW WILL KEEP  
MOISTURE CONTENT HIGH FOR SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.  
BETTER SHEAR IS FORECAST OVER THE WEEKEND AS THE MID LEVEL WIND  
FIELDS INCREASE IN RESPONSE TO THE AMPLIFYING TROUGH, WHICH COULD  
INCREASE THE SEVERE WEATHER POTENTIAL SLIGHTLY INTO THE WEEKEND.  
SOMETHING TO WATCH FOR NOW.  
 
UNCERTAINTY INCREASES INTO THE START OF NEXT WEEK AS THE TROUGH  
AMPLIFIES AND POSSIBLY CUTS OFF OVER THE SOUTHEAST UNITED STATES.  
SOME DRIER AIR COULD FILTER INTO THE AREA BEHIND THIS TROUGH FROM  
THE NORTHWEST AND GIVE US A VERY BRIEF BREAK FROM THE ACTIVE  
PATTERN, BUT GLOBAL GUIDANCE SUGGESTS DEEP SOUTHERLY FLOW COULD  
RETURN BY THE MIDDLE PART OF NEXT WEEK.  
 
   
AVIATION [THROUGH 12Z THURSDAY]
 
 
VFR CONDITIONS ARE LIKELY TO PREVAIL THROUGH THIS MORNING AT ALL  
TERMINALS, ALTHOUGH PATCHY FOG COULD CONTINUE THROUGH THE NEXT  
HOUR AT DHN, VLD, AND TLH BEFORE DISSIPATING. SCATTERED SHOWERS  
AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL INCREASE IN COVERAGE THIS AFTERNOON AND  
PERSIST THROUGH THE EARLY EVENING; AS A RESULT, BRIEF VISIBILITY  
REDUCTIONS ARE POSSIBLE AT ALL TERMINALS. SHOWERS AND STORMS ARE  
EXPECTED TO DISSIPATE BY SUNSET.  
 
   
MARINE
 
 
MODERATE SOUTHWEST WINDS AROUND 10 TO 15 KNOTS AND 2 TO 4 FEET  
SEAS EXPECTED THROUGH THE REST OF THE WEEK ALONG WITH CHANCES FOR  
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS EVERY DAY, ESPECIALLY IN THE OVERNIGHT  
PERIODS. BY THE WEEKEND A FRONTAL SYSTEM DROPS SOUTH INTO THE AREA  
WITH WINDS AND SEAS EXPECTED TO INCREASE FURTHER. ADVISORY  
CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE BY THE WEEKEND, ESPECIALLY ON SUNDAY.  
 
   
FIRE WEATHER
 
 
THERE ARE NO FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS WITH A  
VERY MOIST AIRMASS IN PLACE ALONG WITH PREVAILING LIGHT WINDS.  
 
   
HYDROLOGY
 
 
WIDESPREAD FLOODING IS NOT ANTICIPATED, BUT A VERY MOIST AIRMASS  
IN PLACE WILL CERTAINLY CONTRIBUTE TO VERY LOCALIZED MINOR  
FLOODING IN ANY OF THE SLOWER MOVING THUNDERSTORMS THE NEXT FEW  
DAYS. SOME LOCALIZED INCREASES ON AREA RIVERS IS ALSO ANTICIPATED,  
BUT RISES TO MINOR FLOOD STAGE ARE NOT EXPECTED.  
 
   
SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT
 
 
SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT REQUESTED. HOWEVER, SPOTTERS ARE ALWAYS  
ENCOURAGED TO SAFELY REPORT SIGNIFICANT WEATHER CONDITIONS WHEN THEY  
OCCUR BY CALLING THE OFFICE OR TWEETING US @NWSTALLAHASSEE.  
 

 
   
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
 
 
TALLAHASSEE 90 74 89 74 88 / 60 30 60 40 60  
PANAMA CITY 88 78 88 77 88 / 60 50 60 40 40  
DOTHAN 91 74 91 74 89 / 60 20 70 40 40  
ALBANY 92 75 92 75 89 / 60 30 70 50 40  
VALDOSTA 91 74 87 74 86 / 60 20 70 40 60  
CROSS CITY 88 75 86 74 87 / 60 50 70 60 60  
APALACHICOLA 87 77 85 77 85 / 80 60 70 50 60  
 

 
   
TAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
 
 
FL...NONE.  
GA...NONE.  
AL...NONE.  
GM...NONE.  

 
 

 
 
UPDATE...FIEUX  
NEAR TERM...LAHR  
SHORT TERM...DOBBS  
LONG TERM...DOBBS  
AVIATION...LAHR  
MARINE...DOBBS  
FIRE WEATHER...LAHR  
HYDROLOGY...DOBBS  
 
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