294  
FXUS62 KTAE 271034  
AFDTAE  
 
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION  
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL  
634 AM EDT TUE JUN 27 2017  
   
AVIATION [THROUGH 12Z WEDNESDAY]
 
CEILINGS AT VLD HAVE DROPPED  
TO LIFR IN THE PAST HOUR, EXPECT THEM TO IMPROVE TO VFR BY 16Z.  
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE LIMITED TO VLD AND TLH TODAY AND  
INCLUDED TEMPO GROUPS FORM 19-23Z TO ACCOUNT FOR LOWER  
VISIBILITIES.  
 

 
   
PREV DISCUSSION [227 AM EDT]
 
 
   
NEAR TERM [THROUGH TODAY]
 
 
THE STALLED FRONT REMAINS JUST TO OUR SOUTH. THIS AREA OF  
MOISTURE COMBINED WITH TYPICAL SEA BREEZE FORCING WILL ALLOW FOR  
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON. WITH DRIER AIR IN SE  
ALABAMA, CONVECTION SHOULD BE LIMITED TO THE FL ZONES AND PARTS OF  
SW GA. POPS WILL BE 40-60% IN THESE AREAS. WIDESPREAD CLOUD COVER  
WILL KEEP HIGHS IN THE UPPER 80S.  
 
   
SHORT TERM [TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY]
 
 
SOME DRIER AIR ACROSS THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE AREA WILL TEND TO  
SUPPRESS CONVECTION THERE THROUGH WEDNESDAY WITH POPS BELOW  
AVERAGE FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR. HOWEVER, THERE WILL STILL BE  
DECENT MOISTURE AND THE SEABREEZE TO SUPPORT SCATTERED AFTERNOON  
CONVECTION ACROSS THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE AND BIG BEND AS WELL AS  
ADJACENT AREAS OF SOUTHERN GEORGIA. BY THURSDAY, DEEP LAYER  
MOISTURE IS EXPECTED TO INCREASE WITH A RETURN TO SEASONAL  
SCATTERED CONVECTION AREAWIDE. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL GENERALLY  
RANGE FROM THE UPPER 80S TO LOWER 90S WITH LOWS MAINLY IN THE  
LOWER 70S.  
 
   
LONG TERM [THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY]
 
 
SEASONAL CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO  
CONTINUE EACH DAY THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH POPS IN THE 40-50% RANGE.  
SCATTERED CONVECTION AREAWIDE. SEASONAL TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED  
AS WELL WITH AFTERNOON HIGHS IN THE UPPER 80S TO LOWER 90S AND  
OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE LOWER 70S.  
 
   
MARINE
 
 
A TYPICAL SUMMERTIME PATTERN WILL PERSIST WITH DAILY CHANCES OF  
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS AND LOW WINDS AND SEAS OUTSIDE OF  
THUNDERSTORMS.  
 
   
FIRE WEATHER
 
 
THERE ARE NO FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS AS RH WILL STAY ABOVE CRITICAL  
THRESHOLDS FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS.  
 
   
HYDROLOGY
 
 
MOST OF OUR AREA RIVERS HAVE RECEDED IN AFTER A ROUND OF HEAVY RAIN  
LAST WEEK. A FEW POINTS ALONG THE CHOCTAWHATCHEE RIVER REMAIN IN  
ACTION STAGE, BUT ARE NOT EXPECTED TO RISE TO FLOOD STAGE.  
SCATTERED STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE THE NEXT FEW DAYS IN THE FL BIG  
BEND AND SOUTH CENTRAL GA, BUT RAINFALL TOTALS WILL GENERALLY BE  
BELOW AN INCH. NO FLOODING IS ANTICIPATED FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL  
DAYS.  
 

 
   
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
 
 
TALLAHASSEE 88 71 90 73 87 / 40 10 30 30 50  
PANAMA CITY 86 74 84 75 84 / 30 10 30 30 50  
DOTHAN 87 70 90 72 84 / 10 0 30 20 50  
ALBANY 89 70 90 72 87 / 20 0 20 10 50  
VALDOSTA 88 70 89 72 88 / 50 10 20 10 50  
CROSS CITY 86 71 89 72 88 / 60 30 50 20 50  
APALACHICOLA 84 74 85 76 85 / 40 20 30 30 50  
 

 
   
TAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
 
 
FL...NONE.  
GA...NONE.  
AL...NONE.  
GM...NONE.  
 

 
 

 
 
NEAR TERM...WESTON  
SHORT TERM...DVD  
LONG TERM...DVD  
AVIATION...WESTON  
MARINE...DVD  
FIRE WEATHER...WESTON  
HYDROLOGY...MOORE  
 
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