503
FXUS62 KTAE 250542
AFDTAE
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL
142 AM EDT THU APR 25 2024
..NEW AVIATION
NEAR TERM
(THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 350 PM EDT WED APR 24 2024
A GENERALLY CALM NIGHT IS EXPECTED, THOUGH SOME PATCHY FOG CANNOT BE
RULED OUT OVERNIGHT AS WINDS GO LIGHT TO CALM. ADDITIONALLY, SMOKE
FROM PRESCRIBED BURNS COULD SETTLE NEAR THE GROUND OVERNIGHT, WHICH
COULD CAUSE SOME REDUCTIONS IN VISIBILITIES NEARBY. OTHERWISE, LOWS
WILL BE IN THE UPPER 50S TO NEAR 60. A WEAK SHORTWAVE WILL PASS
THROUGH THE MID-ATLANTIC STATES TONIGHT INTO THURSDAY, WHICH WILL
SEND A COLD FRONT TOWARD OUR AREA FROM THE NORTH. WHETHER OR NOT IT
MAKES IT THIS FAR SOUTH IS STILL QUESTIONABLE, BUT IT WON'T HAVE
MUCH IMPACT ON OUR WEATHER EITHER WAY. THERE WILL BE SOME MOISTURE
RETURN AHEAD OF THE FRONT, BUT THE FORCING WILL BE QUICKLY DEPARTING
THROUGH THE DAY. THUS, RAIN CHANCES ARE ONLY AROUND 10 PERCENT OR
LESS. HIGHS WILL BE IN THE MID 80S.
SHORT TERM
(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 350 PM EDT WED APR 24 2024
UPPER-LEVEL RIDGING MOVES EAST OVER THE REGION THROUGHOUT THE SHORT
TERM. THIS WILL LEAD TO LARGE SCALE SUBSIDENCE WITH SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE REMAINING LOCKED IN PLACE. DRY CONDITIONS PREVAIL.
EXPECT DAYTIME HIGHS GENERALLY IN THE MID TO UPPER 80S WITH
OVERNIGHT LOWS GENERALLY IN THE UPPER 50S TO LOW 60S.
LONG TERM
(SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 350 PM EDT WED APR 24 2024
UPPER-LEVEL RIDGING REMAINS IN PLACE ACROSS THE EASTERN SEABOARD
THROUGHOUT MOST OF THE LONG TERM. THIS WARM AND DRY CONDITIONS WILL
PREVAIL THROUGH MONDAY. ON TUESDAY A MID-LEVEL SHORTWAVE LOOKS TO
MOVE EASTWARD TO OUR NORTH, POSSIBLY INDUCING ENOUGH FORCING FOR
SOME SHOWERS ACROSS OUR ALABAMA AND GEORGIA COUNTIES. OTHERWISE,
PRECIP CHANCES REMAIN AT OR BELOW 10% THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD.
OTHERWISE, EXPECT DAYTIME HIGHS GENERALLY IN THE 80S, POSSIBLY IN
THE LOW 90S BY THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. EXPECT OVERNIGHT LOWS
GENERALLY IN THE 60S.
AVIATION
(06Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 124 AM EDT THU APR 25 2024
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD BUT BRIEF
PERIODS OF MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS DUE TO SMOKE AND/OR PATCHY FOG IS
POSSIBLE AT ECP, TLH, AND VLD THROUGH SUNRISE. THE HIGHEST
CONFIDENCE IS AT ECP. FOG CLEARS OUT AFTER 14Z WITH VFR CONDITIONS
AND LIGHT WINDS EXPECTED THROUGH THE DAY. SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL
DEVELOP BY THE AFTERNOON HOURS AS THE SOUTHERLY SEABREEZE MAKES
INLAND PROGRESS.
MARINE
ISSUED AT 350 PM EDT WED APR 24 2024
LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS ARE EXPECTED INTO EARLY THURSDAY BEFORE AN
EAST AND SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW REGIME BEGINS TO TAKE OVER FOR THE END
OF THE WEEK AND UPCOMING WEEKEND. WITH A STRONG PRESSURE GRADIENT
DEVELOPING, AND THE COMBINATION OF THE ATLANTIC SEABREEZE, EXPECT
CAUTIONARY/ADVISORY LEVEL CONDITIONS TO DEVELOP FOR THE WEEKEND. THE
STRONGEST WINDS ARE LIKELY TO BE IN THE OVERNIGHT AND EARLY MORNING
HOURS AS THE EASTERLY SURGES FROM THE ATLANTIC SEABREEZE PASS
THROUGH.
FIRE WEATHER
ISSUED AT 350 PM EDT WED APR 24 2024
GENERALLY LIGHT NORTHWESTERLY WINDS THURSDAY MORNING WILL BECOME
MORE SOUTHERLY TO SOUTHWESTERLY DURING THE AFTERNOON ACROSS THE
FLORIDA ZONES AS THE SEA BREEZE ADVANCES INLAND. THIS ALONG WITH
HIGH MIXING HEIGHTS OF 5,500 TO 6,500 FEET WILL LEAD TO GENERALLY
GOOD DISPERSIONS AWAY FROM THE IMMEDIATE COAST. WINDS WILL PICK UP
FRIDAY AND SATURDAY DUE TO A TIGHTENING PRESSURE GRADIENT. MIXING
HEIGHTS WILL REMAIN HIGH, LEADING TO GOOD TO EXCELLENT DISPERSIONS
FRIDAY AND SATURDAY. MINIMUM RELATIVE HUMIDITY EACH DAY WILL BOTTOM
OUT IN THE MID 30S TO LOWER 40S.
HYDROLOGY
ISSUED AT 350 PM EDT WED APR 24 2024
MINOR FLOODING CONTINUES ALONG THE MIDDLE AND LOWER SUWANNEE, THE
LOWER WITHLACOOCHEE, THE AUCILLA, AND THE ST. MARKS RIVERS. THE
AUCILLA AND ST. MARKS CONTINUE TO FALL AND SHOULD EXIT FLOOD STAGE
DURING THE NEXT 2 TO 3 DAYS. ON THE SUWANNEE, THE FLOOD WAVE IS NOW
NEAR BRANFORD AND WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE DOWNSTREAM OVER THE NEXT 5
TO 7 DAYS. LITTLE TO NO RAINFALL IS EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT WEEK,
THERE ARE NO ADDITIONAL FLOODING CONCERNS.
SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT
SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT REQUESTED. HOWEVER, SPOTTERS ARE ALWAYS
ENCOURAGED TO SAFELY REPORT SIGNIFICANT WEATHER CONDITIONS WHEN THEY
OCCUR BY CALLING THE OFFICE OR TWEETING US @NWSTALLAHASSEE.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
TALLAHASSEE 85 61 86 66 / 0 0 0 0
PANAMA CITY 81 63 82 67 / 0 0 0 0
DOTHAN 83 61 87 66 / 10 0 0 0
ALBANY 83 62 86 64 / 10 0 0 0
VALDOSTA 84 62 87 65 / 0 0 0 0
CROSS CITY 85 59 88 63 / 0 0 0 0
APALACHICOLA 76 64 77 68 / 0 0 0 0
TAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
FL...NONE.
GA...NONE.
AL...NONE.
GM...NONE.
NEAR TERM...YOUNG
SHORT TERM...OLIVER
LONG TERM....OLIVER
AVIATION...DOBBS
MARINE...OLIVER
FIRE WEATHER...YOUNG
HYDROLOGY...OLIVER
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