323  
FXUS62 KTAE 291050  
AFDTAE  
 
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION  
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL  
650 AM EDT WED MAR 29 2017  
   
AVIATION [THROUGH 12Z THURSDAY]
 
 
IFR TO VLIFR VIS AND/OR CIGS WILL GRADUALLY IMPROVE TO VFR LEVELS  
MID TO LATE MORNING. VFR CONDITIONS AND LIGHT WINDS WILL PREVAIL  
AFTERWARD, THOUGH A 10 KT SEA BREEZE WITH GUSTY WINDS WILL DEVELOP  
AT KECP EARLY THIS AFTERNOON. THE NWP GUIDANCE IS NOT NEARLY AS  
BULLISH IN FORECASTING FOG OVERNIGHT, SO WE HAVE NOT MENTIONED FOG  
IN THE TAF PACKAGE.  
 

 
   
PREV DISCUSSION [325 AM EDT]
 
 
   
NEAR TERM [THROUGH TODAY]
 
 
THE 11 PM REGIONAL SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWED A WEAK, SLOWING COLD  
FRONT ACROSS CENTRAL AL AND GA, AND A RIDGE ACROSS THE FL PENINSULA.  
VAPOR IMAGERY AND UPPER AIR DATA SHOWED A RIDGE OVER MUCH OF THE  
SOUTHEAST. FOG AND LOW CLOUDS WERE BEGINNING TO DEVELOP ACROSS OUR  
FORECAST AREA, AND WILL CONTINUE UNTIL MID TO LATE MORNING. GIVEN  
THE LACK OF UPPER-LEVEL SUPPORT, THE AFOREMENTIONED FRONT WILL STALL  
TO THE NORTH AND NORTHEAST OF OUR REGION LATER TODAY. THERE MAY BE  
JUST ENOUGH DEEP LAYER MOISTURE, CAPE, AND LOW-LAYER CONVERGENCE  
NEAR THE FRONT FOR A SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON, MAINLY  
AROUND THE TIFTON AREA. ABOVE-AVERAGE TEMPERATURES WILL PERSIST,  
WITH HIGHS IN THE MID TO UPPER 80S WELL INLAND, BUT ONLY IN THE MID  
70S AT THE BEACHES.  
 
   
SHORT TERM [TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY]
 
 
SURFACE AND UPPER LEVEL RIDGING WILL BE IN PLACE THROUGH THURSDAY  
WITH WARM AND MOSTLY DRY CONDITIONS. THURSDAY NIGHT A DEEP UPPER  
TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED SURFACE COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH AND MOVE INTO  
OUR CWA WITH MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY INCREASING AHEAD OF THIS  
SYSTEM. A LINE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL LIKELY MOVE INTO  
OUR WESTERN ZONES LATE THURSDAY EVENING AND SPREAD EASTWARD  
OVERNIGHT INTO FRIDAY. THIS WILL BE OUR BEST CHANCE FOR WIDESPREAD  
RAINS, SOME HEAVY, IN SEVERAL WEEKS. ESPECIALLY OUR WESTERN ZONES  
WHERE SOME MODELS SHOW QPF AMOUNTS RANGING FROM 1-2". WHILE THE  
RAINS WILL BE WELCOME, THIS SYSTEM WILL ALSO BRING WITH IT THE  
THREAT FOR SEVERE WEATHER. A FEW STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL  
BE POSSIBLE AS 0-6 KM BULK SHEAR VALUES INCREASE TO 55 KTS. HOWEVER,  
THE LIMITING SEVERE POTENTIAL WILL BE THE MARGINAL INSTABILITY WITH  
CAPE ACROSS OUR WESTERN ZONES THURSDAY EVENING GENERALLY 1100 J/KG  
OR LESS. THESE VALUES DIMINISH OVERNIGHT INCREASING ONCE AGAIN TO  
AROUND 1100 J/KG FRIDAY AFTERNOON ACROSS THE FLORIDA BIG BEND AND  
SOUTH GEORGIA. HOWEVER, BY THAT TIME, MOST OF THE CONVECTION IS  
FORECAST TO HAVE MOVED OFF TO OUR EAST. HIGHS WILL BE IN THE MID  
80S THURSDAY AND LOWER 80S FRIDAY. LOWS THURSDAY NIGHT WILL BE IN  
THE LOWER 60S.  
 
   
LONG TERM [FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY]
 
 
DRY AIR WILL MOVE INTO OUR AREA BEHIND THE FRONT WHICH IS FORECAST  
TO STALL ACROSS SOUTH FLORIDA OVER THE WEEKEND. ASIDE FROM SLIGHTLY  
COOLER NIGHT-TIME TEMPERATURES, DAYTIME HIGHS WILL CONTINUE AT  
ABOVE SEASONAL LEVELS. THE FRONT WILL LIFT NORTH AS A WARM FRONT  
ACROSS OUR AREA SUNDAY NIGHT IN RESPONSE TO ANOTHER DEVELOPING LOW  
PRESSURE SYSTEM IN THE SOUTHERN PLAINS. THIS SYSTEM WILL BRING  
ANOTHER ROUND OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS AHEAD OF THE NEXT COLD  
FRONT MONDAY INTO TUESDAY. WE WILL ALSO HAVE TO WATCH THIS SYSTEM  
FOR THE POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE WEATHER BUT IT TOO EARLY TO ACCESS  
RIGHT NOW. TEMPS WILL CONTINUE ABOVE SEASONAL LEVELS.  
 
   
MARINE
 
 
LIGHT WINDS AND LOW SEAS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THURSDAY, BUT COULD  
REACH ADVISORY LEVELS THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY AS A FRONT  
AND A LINE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MOVE THROUGH THE  
NORTHEASTERN GULF. WINDS AND SEAS WILL DECREASE LATE FRIDAY AND  
REMAIN FAIRLY LOW THROUGH THE WEEKEND.  
 
   
FIRE WEATHER
 
 
RED FLAG CONDITIONS ARE NOT EXPECTED FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS WITH  
RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES REMAINING ABOVE CRITICAL LEVELS.  
 
   
HYDROLOGY
 
 
SHOWERS AND STORMS COULD PRODUCE HEAVY RAINFALL ON THURSDAY NIGHT  
AND EARLY FRIDAY, AND A SECOND ROUND OF STORMS/HEAVY RAIN IS  
POSSIBLE EARLY NEXT WEEK. FLOODING IS NOT EXPECTED FROM THURSDAY  
TO FRIDAY WITH THUNDERSTORMS LIKELY MOVING QUICKLY ACROSS OUR  
AREA, BUT CANNOT BE RULED OUT EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH ADDITIONAL  
PERIODS OF HEAVY RAIN.  
 

 
   
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
 
 
TALLAHASSEE 85 58 86 63 81 / 0 0 10 40 70  
PANAMA CITY 77 62 78 66 78 / 0 0 0 80 50  
DOTHAN 86 59 86 63 81 / 0 0 10 70 50  
ALBANY 87 61 88 64 82 / 10 20 20 40 70  
VALDOSTA 87 59 87 62 82 / 10 10 40 30 60  
CROSS CITY 85 57 86 61 82 / 10 0 10 30 60  
APALACHICOLA 76 62 78 66 78 / 0 0 0 60 60  
 

 
   
TAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
 
 
FL...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EDT /9 AM CDT/ THIS MORNING FOR  
CALHOUN-CENTRAL WALTON-COASTAL BAY-COASTAL FRANKLIN-COASTAL  
GULF-COASTAL JEFFERSON-COASTAL TAYLOR-COASTAL WAKULLA-  
GADSDEN-HOLMES-INLAND BAY-INLAND FRANKLIN-INLAND GULF-  
INLAND JEFFERSON-INLAND TAYLOR-INLAND WAKULLA-JACKSON-  
LAFAYETTE-LEON-LIBERTY-MADISON-NORTH WALTON-SOUTH WALTON-  
WASHINGTON.  
 
GA...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR BAKER-  
BERRIEN-BROOKS-COLQUITT-COOK-DECATUR-GRADY-LANIER-LOWNDES-  
MILLER-MITCHELL-SEMINOLE-THOMAS.  
 
AL...NONE.  
GM...NONE.  
 

 
 

 
 
NEAR TERM...FOURNIER  
SHORT TERM...BARRY  
LONG TERM...BARRY  
AVIATION...FOURNIER  
MARINE...BARRY  
FIRE WEATHER...FOURNIER  
HYDROLOGY...DVD  
 
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