009
FXUS62 KTAE 110057
AFDTAE
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL
857 PM EDT WED JUN 10 2026
..NEW UPDATE
KEY MESSAGES
ISSUED AT 856 PM EDT WED JUN 10 2026
- HEAT BUILDS PROGRESSIVELY EACH DAY INTO THE WEEKEND. FRIDAY AND
SATURDAY WILL FEATURE AIR TEMPERATURES IN THE MID TO UPPER 90S
AND HEAT INDICES APPROACHING HEAT ADVISORY CRITERIA, OR 108
DEGREES AND ABOVE. THOSE WHO ARE SENSITIVE TO HEAT OR DO NOT
HAVE ACCESS TO ADEQUATE COOLING OR HYDRATION COULD BE IMPACTED
BY THE HEAT.
- ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS ARE FORECAST EACH
AFTERNOON THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
- A HIGH RISK OF RIP CURRENTS IS FORECAST TO RETURN TO OUR AREA
BEACHES TODAY AND LINGER THROUGH SATURDAY. IT IS STRONGLY
DISCOURAGED TO ENTER THE SURF ON HIGH RISK DAYS. PLEASE HEED THE
BEACH FLAGS AND ADVICE OF LOCAL OFFICIALS.
UPDATE
ISSUED AT 856 PM EDT WED JUN 10 2026
NO CHANGES ARE NEEDED TO THIS EVENING'S FORECAST. THERE COULD BE
SOME PATCHY FOG IN OUR WESTERNMOST PANHANDLE COUNTIES EARLY
THURSDAY MORNING, BUT CHANCES FOR FOG ARE LOW.
SHORT TERM
(THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 311 PM EDT WED JUN 10 2026
RADAR AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THIS AFTERNOON IS QUITE INDICATIVE OF
A LIGHT SE SEA BREEZE PATTERN THAT IS STRUGGLING TO OVERCOME MID
LEVEL DRY AIR. WHAT SHOWERS AND STORMS HAVE DEVELOPED ARE NOT
MOVING ESPECIALLY FAST AND DON'T LAST ESPECIALLY LONG. EXPECT
STORM COVERAGE TO DROP RAPIDLY AFTER SUNSET. PATCHY FOG IS A
CONCERN OVERNIGHT, MAINLY IN THE FL PANHANDLE NORTH OF I-10.
FOR THURSDAY, MORE OF THE SAME IS EXPECTED WITH A SIMILAR FLOW
REGIME AND DRIER MID LEVEL AIRMASS IN PLACE. TEMPERATURES WILL
START WARMING UP WITH SEVERAL AREAS REACHING THE MID 90S. HEAT
INDICES WILL BREAK INTO THE TRIPLE DIGITS, BUT CERTAINLY NOT AS
WARM AS WHAT WE'LL SEE BY THE END OF THE WEEK AND WEEKEND. RAIN
CHANCES ARE LESS THAN 30 PERCENT FOR MOST LOCATIONS.
LONG TERM
(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH NEXT TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 311 PM EDT WED JUN 10 2026
THROUGH AT LEAST SATURDAY, HEAT WILL BE MORE OF A STORY THAN THE
THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE. WITH LIMITED CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY AND A MID
LEVEL RIDGE, AIR TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO WARM INTO THE MID TO
UPPER 90S ACROSS THE REGION. THE LATEST OPERATIONAL NBM SUGGESTS
AIR TEMPERATURES IN THE UPPER 90S, AND THE DETERMINISTIC GFS AND
EURO MOS SHOW VALUES IN THE 95-97 DEGREE RANGE FOR FRI/SAT, SO
DIDN'T REALLY ADJUST THE NBM GUIDANCE OTHER THAN TO BETTER ALIGN
THE TIMING OF THE MAXT IN THE HOURLY GRIDS TO BETTER REFLECT THE
MAX HEAT INDICIES. FOR FRI/SAT AFTERNOON HEAT INDICES OF 106-110
DEGREES ARE POSSIBLE, ESPECIALLY IN NORTH FLORIDA AND FAR SOUTH
GEORGIA, WHICH WOULD MEET OUR HEAT ADVISORY CRITERIA.
BY SUNDAY, THE RIDGE BEGINS TO WEAKEN AS A SHORTWAVE MOVES THROUGH
THE OHIO VALLEY. THIS SHOULD RESULT IN AN INCREASE IN SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS, WHICH WILL BRING A BREAK FROM THE HEAT. NONETHELESS,
MUCH OF THE TROPICAL MOISTURE LOOKS TO GET PULLED TO THE SOUTH
AND WEST OF THE REGION INTO THE WESTERN GULF, SO DEEP LAYER
MOISTURE DOESN'T REALLY BEGIN TO INCREASE UNTIL THE END OF THE
FORECAST PERIOD WHEN BOTH THE GFS AND EURO SHOW THE EASTERN CONUS
TROUGH AMPLIFYING ENOUGH TO PUSH A SURFACE FRONTAL BOUNDARY INTO
THE SOUTHEAST. SHOULD THIS OCCUR, THERE WOULD BE INCREASED RAIN
CHANCES ESPECIALLY ACROSS OUR NORTHERN ZONES NEARER THE BOUNDARY.
EARLIER START TO CONVECTION ON MON/TUE WOULD ALSO BE EXPECTED
GIVEN THE STRONG SW (10-15 KT 1000-700 MB LAYER) FLOW.
AVIATION
(00Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 740 PM EDT WED JUN 10 2026
VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD PREVAIL THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. THE LONE
EXCEPTION COULD BE BRIEF MVFR/IFR VISIBILITIES DUE TO FOG
POSSIBILITIES ACROSS ECP/TLH AROUND SUNRISE.
MARINE
ISSUED AT 311 PM EDT WED JUN 10 2026
THE BERMUDA HIGH CONTINUES TO BRING LIGHT TO MODERATE
SOUTHEASTERLY TO SOUTHERLY WINDS ACROSS THE NORTHEASTERN GULF
THROUGH THURSDAY. IT SLIDES CLOSER TO THE BAHAMAS FRIDAY, BRINGING
MORE WESTERLY WINDS TO OUR WATERS THROUGH THE WEEKEND. SEAS WILL
GENERALLY BE 1 TO 2 FEET THROUGH THURSDAY BEFORE INCREASING
SLIGHTLY TO 1 TO 3 FEET AS WESTERLY WINDS DEVELOP FRIDAY.
FIRE WEATHER
ISSUED AT 311 PM EDT WED JUN 10 2026
HOT AND MOSTLY DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED THROUGH FRIDAY. AFTERNOON
TEMPERATURES WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 90S WITH A
LESS THAN 30% CHANCE FOR AN ISOLATED SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM ALONG
THE SEA BREEZE IN OUR FLORIDA DISTRICTS. HEAT INDICES WILL BE
APPROACHING 103 TO 108 DEGREES FRIDAY AND SLIGHTLY HIGHER FOR
SATURDAY. MINRH WILL GENERALLY DROP TO BETWEEN 40 TO 50 PERCENT
EACH AFTERNOON THROUGH SATURDAY BEFORE INCREASING SLIGHTLY SUNDAY
AND MONDAY. RAIN CHANCES WILL ALSO INCREASE SATURDAY AFTERNOON
THROUGH MONDAY AS MOISTURE RETURNS TO THE REGION. EASTERLY TO
SOUTHERLY TRANSPORT AND SURFACE WINDS ARE FORECAST THROUGH
THURSDAY BEFORE TURNING MORE WESTERLY FRIDAY AND BEYOND.
HYDROLOGY
ISSUED AT 311 PM EDT WED JUN 10 2026
NO SIGNIFICANT FLASH OR RIVERINE FLOODING IS EXPECTED THE NEXT
SEVERAL DAYS. LOCALLY HEAVY DOWNPOURS ARE EXPECTED WITHIN ANY
SHOWERS AND STORMS THAT DEVELOP, ESPECIALLY SATURDAY INTO EARLY
NEXT WEEK, WITH 1" TO 2" OF RAIN OCCURRING VERY QUICKLY.
SEVERE TO EXCEPTIONAL DROUGHT CONTINUES FOR AREAS GENERALLY EAST OF
THE APALACHICOLA AND FLINT RIVERS AS THESE AREAS MISSED OUT ON THE
MOST BENEFICIAL RECENT RAINS. THE DROUGHT FEATURES LONG TERM IMPACTS
THAT ARE AFFECTING RIVERS, LAKES, AND PONDS THAT ARE STILL BELOW
NORMAL DESPITE RECENT RAINS. FOR MORE INFORMATION ON LOCAL DROUGHT
IMPACTS, PLEASE VISIT
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/TAE/DROUGHTINFORMATIONSTATEMENT.
SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT
SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT REQUESTED. HOWEVER, SPOTTERS ARE ALWAYS
ENCOURAGED TO SAFELY REPORT SIGNIFICANT WEATHER CONDITIONS WHEN THEY
OCCUR BY CALLING THE OFFICE OR TWEETING US @NWSTALLAHASSEE.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
TALLAHASSEE 93 73 94 74 / 30 10 10 0
PANAMA CITY 90 75 89 77 / 10 0 10 0
DOTHAN 92 72 94 73 / 0 0 0 0
ALBANY 92 74 94 76 / 0 0 10 10
VALDOSTA 92 73 94 75 / 10 10 20 10
CROSS CITY 93 72 93 75 / 40 20 40 0
APALACHICOLA 87 76 87 77 / 10 0 10 10
TAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
FL...NONE.
GA...NONE.
AL...NONE.
GM...NONE.
SHORT TERM...GODSEY
LONG TERM....GODSEY
AVIATION...DOBBS
MARINE...GODSEY
FIRE WEATHER...GODSEY
HYDROLOGY...GODSEY
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