700  
FXUS62 KTAE 181352  
AFDTAE  
 
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION  
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL  
952 AM EDT FRI AUG 18 2017  
   
NEAR TERM [THROUGH TODAY]
 
 
UPDATED MORNING PRECIP GRIDS TO REFLECT CURRENT OFFSHORE SHOWERS.  
CHANCES WILL INCREASE INLAND THIS AFTERNOON AS SHOWERS AND  
THUNDERSTORMS MOVE INLAND WITH THE SEABREEZE. TEMPERATURES ARE ON  
TRACK TO BE IN THE MID 90'S WITH UNCOMFORTABLY HIGH DEWPOINTS.  
OTHERWISE, THE CURRENT FORECAST IS ON TRACK.  
 

 
   
PREV DISCUSSION [647 AM EDT]
 
 
   
SHORT TERM [TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY]
 
 
IN THE UPPER LEVELS OUR FORECAST AREA WILL BE UNDER A VERY NARROW  
RIDGE, SQUEEZED BY A MID LATITUDE TROUGH TO OUR NORTH AND A SLOW-  
MOVING TUTT LOW DRIFTING WESTWARD OVER THE EASTERN GULF OF MEXICO.  
AT THE SURFACE THE PRESSURE PATTERN WILL BE WEAK, WITH A TROUGH  
ALONG THE PIEDMONT AND THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE JUST TO THE SOUTH.  
 
THE 1000-700 MEAN WIND WILL BE FROM THE NW AT 5 TO 10 KT ON  
SATURDAY, WHICH WILL DELAY THE INLAND MOVEMENT OF THE NW FL SEA  
BREEZE FRONT UNTIL MID AFTERNOON, AND PREVENT THE FRONT FROM  
REACHING THE DOTHAN AND ALBANY AREAS BY THE TIME OF PEAK CAPE.  
ADDITIONALLY, A REGION OF RELATIVELY WARM, DRY MID-TROPOSPHERIC  
AIR (CURRENTLY OVER THE MIDWEST) WILL REACH THE FL PANHANDLE AND  
SW GA SATURDAY, LIMITING UPDRAFTS AND DEEP MOIST CONVECTION. THUS  
THE HIGHEST POPS (50%) WILL BE AROUND TALLAHASSEE, VALDOSTA, AND  
CROSS CITY. ELSEWHERE POPS WILL BE 20 TO 30%. ON SUNDAY THE  
1000-700 MB MEAN WIND WILL BECOME LIGHT SE, FAVORING AN EARLIER  
START TO THE DAILY SEA BREEZE. POPS WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE 30 TO  
50% RANGE, AND HIGHEST IN THE FL PANHANDLE. IT WILL REMAIN HOT  
AND MUGGY WITH HIGHS IN THE MID 90S AND LOWS IN THE 70S. MAXIMUM  
HEAT INDEX VALUES WILL BE IN THE 100 TO 105 RANGE.  
 
   
LONG TERM [SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY]
 
 
AN UNUSUALLY STRONG 500 MB RIDGE WILL BE THE DOMINANT SYNOPTIC  
FEATURE ACROSS MUCH OF THE SOUTHEAST THROUGH MID WEEK, FOLLOWED BY  
THE DEVELOPMENT OF A TROUGH OVER MUCH OF THE EASTERN CONUS. IN THE  
ABSENCE OF SYNOPTIC SCALE FORCING IN OUR REGION, AS USUAL, DEEP  
MOIST CONVECTION WILL BE MOST LIKELY ALONG THE SEA/LAND BREEZE  
FRONTS AND OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES. POPS WILL BE IN THE 30-50% RANGE,  
HIGHEST (INLAND) DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS. HIGH  
TEMPERATURES WILL BE IN THE LOWER TO MID 90S, LOWS IN THE 70S.  
 
   
AVIATION [THROUGH 12Z SATURDAY]
 
 
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD OUTSIDE OF ANY TSRA. TS  
COVERAGE IS EXPECTED TO BE ISO TO SCT ONCE AGAIN THIS AFTERNOON,  
KEEPING CONFIDENCE LIMITED IN ANY ACTIVITY DIRECTLY AFFECTING ANY  
TERMINALS. VLD, TLH AND ECP HAVE THE HIGHEST CHANCES TO OBSERVE TS  
AFTER 18Z. WESTERLY WINDS GENERALLY BELOW 10 KTS AT ALL SITES  
THROUGH THE PERIOD.  
 
   
MARINE
 
 
LIGHT WINDS AND LOW SEAS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE WEEKEND AS THE  
COASTAL WATERS REMAIN NEAR A HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE.  
 
   
FIRE WEATHER
 
 
HAZARDOUS FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS NOT EXPECTED THROUGH MUCH OF THE  
NEXT WEEK AS RH'S REMAIN ABOVE CRITICAL LEVELS. CHANCES FOR  
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS YIELDING WETTING RAINS THIS AFTERNOON,  
MAINLY ACROSS THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE.  
 
   
HYDROLOGY
 
 
AREA RIVERS WERE BELOW "ACTION STAGE" AND WILL REMAIN SO THROUGH  
THIS WEEKEND. ORGANIZED HEAVY RAIN IS UNLIKELY.  
 

 
   
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
 
 
TALLAHASSEE 96 76 93 75 94 / 40 30 50 10 30  
PANAMA CITY 93 79 90 78 91 / 30 20 30 10 30  
DOTHAN 93 74 93 74 94 / 20 20 20 10 30  
ALBANY 95 75 94 74 94 / 20 20 20 10 30  
VALDOSTA 97 75 93 74 93 / 30 20 50 10 40  
CROSS CITY 93 75 92 74 93 / 60 20 50 10 30  
APALACHICOLA 94 78 90 77 90 / 40 20 40 10 20  
 

 
   
TAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
 
 
FL...NONE.  
GA...NONE.  
AL...NONE.  
GM...NONE.  
 

 
 

 
 
NEAR TERM...HUMPHREYS  
SHORT TERM...FOURNIER  
LONG TERM...FOURNIER  
AVIATION...PULLIN  
MARINE...FOURNIER  
FIRE WEATHER...PULLIN  
HYDROLOGY...FOURNIER  
 
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