248
FXHW52 PHFO 250055
SRDHFO
COLLABORATIVE NEARSHORE SWELL AND WIND FORECAST FOR OAHU
NWS/NCDDC HONOLULU HI
300 PM HST FRI MAY 24 2013
THIS COLLABORATIVE FORECAST WILL BE UPDATED MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY AT
300 PM WHEN PAT CALDWELL IS AVAILABLE.
FORECAST SWL DMNT DMNT H H HGT WIND WIND SPD
DATE HGT DIR PD 1/3 1/10 TEND PROB SPD DIR TEND
1 PM 3 WNW 11 4 6 DOWN 11-16 E UP
05/24 4 ENE 8 2 4 UP
3 S 14 4 6 DOWN
SAT 2 NW 10 2 4 DOWN LOW 17-21 E UP
05/25 7 ENE 8 4 6 UP MED
2 S 14 2 4 DOWN LOW
SUN 8 ENE 8 4 6 SAME MED 19-23 E UP
05/26 2 S 14 2 4 SAME LOW
MON 7 E 8 4 6 SAME LOW 17-21 E DOWN
05/27 2 SSW 16 2 4 UP LOW
TUE 6 E 8 3 5 DOWN LOW 13-19 E DOWN
05/28 2 SSW 15 2 4 SAME LOW
WED 5 E 8 2 4 SAME LOW 13-19 E SAME
05/29 2 S 14 2 4 SAME LOW
LEGEND:
SWL HGT OPEN OCEAN SWELL HEIGHT MEASURED FROM TROUGH TO CREST
IN FEET LOCATED 20 NAUTICAL MILES OFFSHORE
DMNT DIR DOMINANT DIRECTION TYPICALLY +/-10 DEGREES IN 16 COMPASS
POINTS
DMNT PD DOMINANT PERIOD IN SECONDS
H1/3 SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT IN THE SURF ZONE
H1/10 AVERAGE HEIGHT OF THE HIGHEST ONE-TENTH WAVES IN THE SURF
ZONE
HGT TEND HEIGHT TENDENCY OF SWELL (VALID VALUES: UP/DOWN/SAME)
PROB PROBABILITY OF OCCURRENCE (VALID VALUES: HIGH/MED/LOW)
WIND SPD OPEN WATER WIND SPEED MEASURED IN KNOTS LOCATED
20 NAUTICAL MILES OFFSHORE
WIND DIR WIND DIRECTION IN 16 COMPASS POINTS
SPD TEND WIND SPEED TENDENCY (VALID VALUES: UP/DOWN/SAME)
SURF HEIGHTS WILL VARY BETWEEN DIFFERENT BEACHES AND AT THE SAME
BEACH AT DIFFERENT BREAK AREAS.
DISCUSSION:
SUMMARY...
WINDSWELL TO TOP THE HEIGHTS FOR THE WEEKEND.
DETAILED...
MID FRIDAY ON NORTHERN SHORES HAS SMALL BREAKERS FROM 300-320
DEGREES WITH 10-13 SECOND PERIODS. THIS EPISODE SHOULD FADE OUT ON
SATURDAY. IT WAS GENERATED WEST OF THE DATELINE 5/18-20.
A WEAK LOW PRESSURE CELL NEAR THE DATELINE ON FRIDAY 5/24 IS
MODELLED TO TRACK INTO THE GULF OF ALASKA OVER THE WEEKEND ABOVE
40N. MOSTLY STRONG BREEZES IN AN AREA OVER 1700 NM WOULD NOT MAKE
MORE THAN TINY SURF FOR THE LONG RANGE...ARRIVING ROUGHLY 5/30 FROM
NNW. OTHERWISE...A SUMMERY PATTERN HAS TAKEN OVER THE NORTH PACIFIC
AS TRADES RETURN TO HAWAII.
MID FRIDAY ON EASTERN SHORES HAS SMALL BREAKERS UNDER INCREASING
TRADES. SURF SHOULD BUILD INTO SATURDAY TO MODERATE LEVELS.
A STRONG SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE FORMED NEAR 40N...140W 5/21. IT SET
UP A WIDE AREA OF FRESH TO STRONG TRADES IN AN AREA FROM 130-145W
BETWEEN 23 AND 30N. THIS UPSTREAM SOURCE SHOULD ADD LOCAL WINDSWELL
WITH 7-10 SECOND PERIODS BUILDING SATURDAY FROM 50-70 DEGREES. IT
WILL BE REINFORCED BY LOCAL WINDSWELL AS THE WEEKEND PROGRESSES.
THE SURFACE RIDGE IS EXPANDING WESTWARD FROM THE NORTHEAST
PACIFIC..NOSING THE TRADES INTO HAWAII ON 5/24 AS THE LONG-LIVED
UPPER LEVEL LOW AND ASSOCIATED SURFACE TROUGH NEAR THE ISLANDS
DISSIPATE. LOCAL AND UPSTREAM TRADES WITHIN 500 NM ARE EXPECTED TO
FRESHEN ON SATURDAY...HOLDING INTO MONDAY. MODELS SUGGEST LOCAL
WINDS
BUMPING UP INTO STRONG LEVELS ON SUNDAY. THIS PATTERN SHOULD MAKE
FOR MODERATE...CHOPPY BREAKERS FROM WINDSWELL 5/25-27. MODELS
PREDICT A WEAKENING ON TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY 5/28-29...WITH
WINDSWELL DROPPING TO SMALL LEVELS BY 5/29.
MID FRIDAY ON SOUTHERN SHORES HAS SMALL TO MODERATE BREAKERS FROM
WITHIN 170-200 DEGREES WITH 13-16 SECOND PERIODS. HEIGHTS SHOULD
LOWER ON SATURDAY TO COMMON SUMMER BACKGROUND LEVELS AND STAY ABOUT
THE SAME INTO SUNDAY.
THE JET STREAM IN THE SOUTHERN HEMISPHERE BECAME ZONAL TO THE S TO
SE OF NEW ZEALAND 5/15-22. COMPACT...FAST-MOVING SYSTEMS TRACKED
EAST ALONG 60S JUST NORTH OF THE ANTARCTIC ICE SHEET. A COMPACT LOW
FOLLOWED THIS TRACK 5/19-20 AND SHOULD GIVE A LONG-PERIOD
REINFORCEMENT TO THE SMALL...BACKGROUND SURF MONDAY TO WEDNESDAY
5/27-29 FROM WITHIN 170-200 DEGREES.
INTO THE LONG RANGE...LOW-END GALES BEHIND A FRONT THAT PUSHED INTO
THE SUBTROPICS EAST OF NEW ZEALAND 5/23-24 COULD KEEP THE BACKGROUND
LEVEL SURF FROM 180-200 DEGREES LOCALLY 5/31-6/1. MODELS SUGGEST
ANOTHER ACTIVE EXTRA-TROPICAL CYCLONIC PATTERN SE TO E OF NEW
ZEALAND STARTING 5/26 OUT ABOUT A WEEK. THIS PATTERN SHOULD BRING
SURF BACK UP TO ABOVE AVERAGE LEVELS OFF AND ON WITHIN 6/3-10 FROM
WITHIN 170-220 DEGREES. IT IS TOO EARLY FOR SPECIFICS.
IN THE NORTHERN HEMISPHERE...MODELS SHOW A SUMMERY PATTERN WITH NO
SURF BEYOND SHORT-LIVED...SMALL...SHORT-PERIOD VARIETY OUT OF NNW TO
N EXPECTED 5/30-6/3. TRADES ARE MODELLED TO FRESH 5/30 INTO THE
WEEKEND OF 6/1 WITH WINDSWELL RETURNING TO MODERATE LEVELS FROM
60-90 DEGREES.
LONG RANGE FORECASTS HAVE HIGH UNCERTAINTY.
THIS COLLABORATIVE FORECAST WILL RESUME ON TUESDAY...MAY 28.
THIS FORECAST WAS PRODUCED THROUGH THE COLLABORATIVE EFFORTS OF
NWS AND NCDDC. PLEASE SEND SUGGESTIONS TO W-HFO.WEBMASTER@NOAA.GOV
OR CALL THE WARNING COORDINATION METEOROLOGIST AT 808-973-5275.
ADDITIONAL RESOURCES:
SEE /IN LOWERCASE/ HTTP://WWW.PRH.NOAA.GOV/HNL/PAGES/MARINE.PHP
NWS FORECASTER POWELL AND NCDDC PAT CALDWELL
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