163  
FGUS73 KARX 211954  
ESFARX  
IAC005-037-043-065-067-089-131-191-MNC039-045-055-099-109-157-169-  
WIC001-011-019-023-043-053-057-063-081-103-119-121-123-302359-  
 
PROBABILISTIC HYDROLOGIC OUTLOOK  
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LA CROSSE WI  
149 PM CST TUE NOV 21 2017  
 
IN TABLE 1 BELOW, THE CURRENT (CS) AND HISTORICAL (HS) OR NORMAL  
PROBABILITIES OF EXCEEDING MINOR, MODERATE, AND MAJOR FLOOD STAGES  
ARE LISTED FOR THE VALID TIME PERIOD.  
 
CS VALUES INDICATE THE PROBABILITY OF REACHING A FLOOD CATEGORY  
BASED ON CURRENT CONDITIONS.  
 
HS VALUES INDICATE THE PROBABILITY OF REACHING A FLOOD CATEGORY  
BASED ON HISTORICAL OR NORMAL CONDITIONS.  
 
WHEN THE VALUE OF CS IS GREATER THAN HS, THE PROBABILITY OF  
EXCEEDING THAT LEVEL IS HIGHER THAN NORMAL. WHEN THE VALUE OF CS  
IS LESS THAN HS...THE PROBABILITY OF EXCEEDING THAT LEVEL IS  
LOWER THAN NORMAL.  
   
..TABLE 1--PROBABILITIES FOR MINOR, MODERATE AND MAJOR FLOODING
 
 
VALID PERIOD: 11/26/2017 - 02/24/2018  
 
: CURRENT AND HISTORICAL  
: CHANCES OF EXCEEDING  
: FLOOD CATEGORIES  
: AS A PERCENTAGE (%)  
CATEGORICAL :  
FLOOD STAGES (FT) : MINOR MODERATE MAJOR  
LOCATION MINOR MOD MAJOR : CS HS CS HS CS HS  
 
-------- ----- ----- ----- : --- --- --- --- --- ---  
:MISSISSIPPI RIVER  
LAKE CITY 16.0 18.0 20.0 : <5 <5 <5 <5 <5 <5  
WABASHA 12.0 14.0 16.0 : <5 <5 <5 <5 <5 <5  
ALMA DAM 4 16.0 17.0 18.0 : <5 <5 <5 <5 <5 <5  
MN CITY DAM 5 660.0 662.0 665.0 : <5 <5 <5 <5 <5 <5  
WINONA DAM 5A 655.0 659.0 661.0 : <5 <5 <5 <5 <5 <5  
WINONA 13.0 15.0 18.0 : <5 <5 <5 <5 <5 <5  
TREMPEALEAU 647.0 649.0 651.0 : <5 <5 <5 <5 <5 <5  
LA CRESCENT 641.0 643.0 645.0 : <5 <5 <5 <5 <5 <5  
LA CROSSE 12.0 13.0 15.5 : <5 <5 <5 <5 <5 <5  
GENOA 631.0 634.0 636.0 : <5 <5 <5 <5 <5 <5  
LANSING 17.0 19.0 20.0 : <5 <5 <5 <5 <5 <5  
LYNXVILLE 625.0 628.0 631.0 : <5 <5 <5 <5 <5 <5  
MCGREGOR 16.0 19.0 22.0 : <5 <5 <5 <5 <5 <5  
GUTTENBERG 15.0 18.0 21.0 : <5 <5 <5 <5 <5 <5  
:ZUMBRO RIVER  
ZUMBRO FALLS 18.0 24.0 26.0 : <5 <5 <5 <5 <5 <5  
:SOUTH FORK ZUMBRO RIVER  
ROCHESTER 14.0 18.0 20.0 : <5 <5 <5 <5 <5 <5  
:ROOT RIVER  
HOUSTON 15.0 17.0 18.0 : <5 <5 <5 <5 <5 <5  
:SOUTH BRANCH ROOT RIVER  
LANESBORO 12.0 16.0 18.0 : <5 <5 <5 <5 <5 <5  
:CEDAR RIVER  
LANSING 18.0 20.0 22.0 : <5 <5 <5 <5 <5 <5  
AUSTIN 15.0 18.0 20.0 : <5 <5 <5 <5 <5 <5  
CHARLES CITY 12.0 15.0 18.0 : <5 <5 <5 <5 <5 <5  
:TURTLE CREEK  
AUSTIN 10.5 12.0 14.0 : <5 <5 <5 <5 <5 <5  
:TURKEY RIVER  
ELKADER 12.0 16.0 20.0 : 9 <5 <5 <5 <5 <5  
GARBER 17.0 20.0 23.0 : 6 <5 <5 <5 <5 <5  
:UPPER IOWA RIVER  
DECORAH 12.0 13.0 14.0 : <5 <5 <5 <5 <5 <5  
DORCHESTER 14.0 17.0 19.0 : <5 <5 <5 <5 <5 <5  
:TREMPEALEAU RIVER  
ARCADIA 8.0 9.0 10.0 : <5 <5 <5 <5 <5 <5  
DODGE 9.0 11.0 12.0 : 15 <5 <5 <5 <5 <5  
:BLACK RIVER  
NEILLSVILLE 18.0 20.0 22.0 : <5 <5 <5 <5 <5 <5  
BLACK RIVER FALLS 47.0 51.0 55.0 : <5 <5 <5 <5 <5 <5  
GALESVILLE 12.0 13.0 15.0 : <5 <5 <5 <5 <5 <5  
:KICKAPOO RIVER  
LA FARGE 12.0 13.0 14.0 : <5 <5 <5 <5 <5 <5  
VIOLA 14.0 16.0 18.0 : <5 <5 <5 <5 <5 <5  
READSTOWN 11.0 14.0 16.0 : <5 <5 <5 <5 <5 <5  
SOLDIERS GROVE 13.0 16.0 19.0 : <5 <5 <5 <5 <5 <5  
GAYS MILLS 13.0 15.0 17.0 : 6 <5 <5 <5 <5 <5  
STEUBEN 12.0 13.0 15.0 : <5 <5 <5 <5 <5 <5  
:WISCONSIN RIVER  
MUSCODA 9.0 10.0 11.0 : <5 <5 <5 <5 <5 <5  
:YELLOW RIVER  
NECEDAH 15.0 16.5 18.0 : <5 <5 <5 <5 <5 <5  
 
LEGEND  
CS = CONDITIONAL SIMULATION (CURRENT OUTLOOK)  
HS = HISTORICAL SIMULATION  
FT = FEET  
 
IN TABLE 2 BELOW, THE 95 THROUGH 5 PERCENT COLUMNS INDICATE THE  
PROBABILITY OF EXCEEDING THE LISTED STAGE LEVELS (FT) FOR THE VALID  
TIME PERIOD.  
   
..TABLE 2--EXCEEDANCE PROBABILITIES
 
 
CHANCE OF EXCEEDING STAGES  
AT SPECIFIC LOCATIONS  
VALID PERIOD: 11/26/2017 - 02/24/2018  
LOCATION 95% 90% 75% 50% 25% 10% 5%  
-------- ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------  
:MISSISSIPPI RIVER  
LAKE CITY 7.2 7.2 7.2 7.2 7.3 8.2 9.9  
WABASHA 7.7 7.7 7.7 7.7 7.7 8.2 9.2  
ALMA DAM 4 5.2 5.2 5.2 5.2 5.3 5.9 7.1  
MN CITY DAM 5 651.7 651.7 651.7 651.7 651.7 652.4 653.6  
WINONA DAM 5A 646.5 646.5 646.5 646.5 646.5 647.2 649.1  
WINONA 5.9 5.9 5.9 5.9 5.9 6.4 7.6  
TREMPEALEAU 640.5 640.5 640.5 640.5 640.6 641.2 642.2  
LA CRESCENT 632.8 632.8 632.8 632.8 632.8 633.9 635.4  
LA CROSSE 5.6 5.6 5.6 5.6 5.6 6.2 7.2  
GENOA 623.0 623.0 623.0 623.1 623.1 624.7 626.2  
LANSING 8.2 8.2 8.2 8.2 8.2 8.5 8.9  
LYNXVILLE 615.4 615.4 615.4 615.5 615.5 616.7 618.1  
MCGREGOR 8.6 8.6 8.6 8.6 8.7 9.5 10.8  
GUTTENBERG 7.1 7.1 7.1 7.1 7.2 8.7 9.9  
:ZUMBRO RIVER  
ZUMBRO FALLS 5.3 5.4 5.5 5.7 6.7 7.6 8.5  
:SOUTH FORK ZUMBRO RIVER  
ROCHESTER 2.5 2.5 2.8 3.3 4.1 5.2 5.8  
:ROOT RIVER  
HOUSTON 3.4 3.4 3.6 4.9 7.1 11.1 11.9  
:SOUTH BRANCH ROOT RIVER  
LANESBORO 1.9 1.9 1.9 2.4 3.6 7.3 8.2  
:CEDAR RIVER  
LANSING 9.1 9.1 9.2 10.2 11.7 13.0 13.7  
AUSTIN 3.0 3.0 3.1 4.5 5.8 7.1 8.5  
CHARLES CITY 2.2 2.2 2.5 3.1 4.0 5.5 6.6  
:TURTLE CREEK  
AUSTIN 1.4 1.4 1.7 2.8 3.9 4.9 5.8  
:TURKEY RIVER  
ELKADER 5.4 5.5 6.5 7.5 8.9 11.7 13.7  
GARBER 6.6 6.8 8.1 9.6 12.0 15.2 18.0  
:UPPER IOWA RIVER  
DECORAH 2.1 2.1 2.4 3.2 3.8 4.8 5.2  
DORCHESTER 7.2 7.2 7.3 8.1 9.0 9.9 10.7  
:TREMPEALEAU RIVER  
ARCADIA 3.3 3.3 3.5 4.0 5.1 6.6 7.0  
DODGE 5.2 5.3 5.6 6.6 8.0 9.4 9.6  
:BLACK RIVER  
NEILLSVILLE 3.1 3.1 3.2 4.1 5.6 6.7 8.1  
BLACK RIVER FALLS 36.0 36.0 36.1 37.0 38.6 40.4 42.4  
GALESVILLE 3.4 3.4 3.5 4.2 5.7 7.2 8.7  
:KICKAPOO RIVER  
LA FARGE 3.1 3.4 3.9 5.7 7.5 8.7 9.1  
VIOLA 8.3 8.7 9.7 11.3 12.7 13.3 13.6  
READSTOWN 4.2 4.4 5.3 7.3 9.1 10.1 10.5  
SOLDIERS GROVE 5.6 6.0 7.7 9.7 11.1 11.8 12.2  
GAYS MILLS 7.1 7.3 8.1 10.2 11.8 12.4 13.1  
STEUBEN 6.4 6.6 7.3 9.1 10.5 10.8 11.2  
:WISCONSIN RIVER  
MUSCODA 2.4 2.4 2.4 2.5 2.8 3.4 3.8  
:YELLOW RIVER  
NECEDAH 9.5 9.5 9.5 9.9 10.7 12.6 13.8  
 
IN TABLE 3 BELOW, THE 95 THROUGH 5 PERCENT COLUMNS INDICATE THE  
PROBABILITY OF FALLING BELOW THE LISTED STAGE LEVELS (FT) FOR  
THE VALID TIME PERIOD.  
   
..TABLE 3--NONEXCEEDANCE PROBABILITIES
 
 
CHANCE OF FALLING BELOW STAGES  
AT SPECIFIC LOCATIONS  
VALID PERIOD: 11/26/2017 - 02/24/2018  
LOCATION 95% 90% 75% 50% 25% 10% 5%  
-------- ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------  
:MISSISSIPPI RIVER  
LAKE CITY 6.1 6.1 6.0 5.9 5.9 5.9 5.9  
WABASHA 7.0 7.0 7.0 6.9 6.9 6.9 6.9  
ALMA DAM 4 4.4 4.3 4.3 4.3 4.3 4.2 4.2  
MN CITY DAM 5 651.1 651.1 651.1 651.1 651.1 651.0 651.0  
WINONA DAM 5A 645.8 645.7 645.7 645.6 645.6 645.6 645.6  
WINONA 5.6 5.6 5.6 5.5 5.5 5.5 5.5  
TREMPEALEAU 639.6 639.5 639.5 639.4 639.4 639.4 639.4  
LA CRESCENT 631.5 631.4 631.4 631.3 631.3 631.3 631.3  
LA CROSSE 5.0 4.9 4.9 4.8 4.8 4.8 4.8  
GENOA 621.1 621.0 620.9 620.8 620.8 620.7 620.7  
LANSING 7.8 7.8 7.8 7.8 7.7 7.7 7.7  
LYNXVILLE 613.0 612.9 612.6 612.5 612.4 612.3 612.3  
MCGREGOR 7.7 7.6 7.5 7.4 7.3 7.3 7.3  
GUTTENBERG 4.6 4.4 4.2 4.1 4.0 4.0 4.0  
:ZUMBRO RIVER  
ZUMBRO FALLS 5.2 5.1 5.0 4.9 4.7 4.7 4.7  
:SOUTH FORK ZUMBRO RIVER  
ROCHESTER 2.4 2.4 2.3 2.3 2.3 2.3 2.3  
:ROOT RIVER  
HOUSTON 3.3 3.3 3.2 3.2 3.1 3.1 3.1  
:SOUTH BRANCH ROOT RIVER  
LANESBORO 1.8 1.8 1.8 1.8 1.8 1.8 1.8  
:CEDAR RIVER  
LANSING 9.1 9.0 9.0 9.0 9.0 9.0 8.9  
AUSTIN 3.1 3.0 3.0 3.0 2.9 2.9 2.9  
CHARLES CITY 2.1 2.1 2.0 2.0 1.9 1.9 1.9  
:TURTLE CREEK  
AUSTIN 1.4 1.4 1.3 1.3 1.2 1.1 1.1  
:TURKEY RIVER  
ELKADER 5.4 5.3 5.2 5.2 5.1 5.0 5.0  
GARBER 6.6 6.6 6.5 6.4 6.3 6.3 6.3  
:UPPER IOWA RIVER  
DECORAH 2.0 1.9 1.9 1.8 1.7 1.7 1.7  
DORCHESTER 7.1 7.0 7.0 6.9 6.9 6.9 6.9  
:TREMPEALEAU RIVER  
ARCADIA 3.2 3.2 3.2 3.2 3.2 3.2 3.2  
DODGE 5.1 5.0 5.0 4.9 4.8 4.8 4.8  
:BLACK RIVER  
NEILLSVILLE 2.8 2.8 2.7 2.7 2.7 2.7 2.7  
BLACK RIVER FALLS 35.8 35.8 35.7 35.7 35.7 35.7 35.7  
GALESVILLE 3.2 3.2 3.1 3.1 3.0 3.0 3.0  
:KICKAPOO RIVER  
LA FARGE 3.0 3.0 3.0 3.0 2.9 2.9 2.9  
VIOLA 8.1 8.0 7.9 7.8 7.7 7.7 7.7  
READSTOWN 4.1 4.1 4.0 4.0 4.0 3.9 3.9  
SOLDIERS GROVE 5.2 5.1 4.9 4.7 4.6 4.6 4.5  
GAYS MILLS 6.9 6.8 6.7 6.6 6.6 6.5 6.5  
STEUBEN 6.2 6.2 6.0 6.0 5.9 5.9 5.8  
:WISCONSIN RIVER  
MUSCODA 1.1 1.0 0.9 0.8 0.7 0.7 0.7  
:YELLOW RIVER  
NECEDAH 9.4 9.4 9.4 9.4 9.4 9.4 9.4  
 
THESE LONG-RANGE PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOKS CONTAIN FORECAST VALUES THAT  
ARE CALCULATED USING MULTIPLE SEASON SCENARIOS FROM 30 OR MORE YEARS  
OF CLIMATOLOGICAL DATA, INCLUDING CURRENT CONDITIONS OF THE  
RIVER, SOIL MOISTURE, SNOW COVER, AND 30 AND 90 DAY LONG-RANGE  
OUTLOOKS OF TEMPERATURE AND PRECIPITATION. BY PROVIDING A RANGE  
OF PROBABILITIES...THE LEVEL OF RISE ASSOCIATED WITH LONG-RANGE  
PLANNING DECISIONS CAN BE DETERMINED. THESE PROBABILISTIC  
FORECASTS ARE PART OF THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE'S ADVANCED  
HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE.  
 
ALL OF THIS INFORMATION IS ALSO AVAILABLE IN GRAPHICAL FORMAT  
ON THE INTERNET AT:  
 
HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/LACROSSE  
 
THE NEXT OUTLOOK WILL BE ISSUED IN LATE DECEMBER.  
 

 
 
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