566  
FGUS73 KARX 160007 CCA  
ESFARX  
IAC005-037-043-065-067-089-131-191-MNC039-045-055-099-109-157-169-  
WIC001-011-019-023-043-053-057-063-081-103-119-121-123-160015-  
 
HYDROLOGIC OUTLOOK  
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LA CROSSE WI 255 PM CST  
THU FEB 15 2018  
   
..FIRST SPRING HYDROLOGIC SUMMARY AND OUTLOOK
 
 
THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS THE FIRST OF TWO PLANNED HYDROLOGIC  
OUTLOOKS PROVIDING SPRING SNOW MELT AND FLOOD POTENTIAL INFORMATION.  
THIS OUTLOOK CONTAINS INFORMATION WHICH WAS COLLECTED FROM A NUMBER  
OF SOURCES, INCLUDING THE UNITED STATES GEOLOGICAL SURVEY (USGS),  
THE US ARMY CORPS OF ENGINEERS (USACE), MIDWEST REGIONAL CLIMATE  
CENTER (MRCC), HIGH PLAINS REGIONAL CLIMATE CENTER (HPRCC), US  
DROUGHT MONITOR (NIDIS), AND THE NATIONAL OPERATIONAL REMOTE SENSING  
CENTER (NOHRSC).  
 
THIS OUTLOOK IS A SUMMARY OF THE PAST AND PRESENT BASIN CONDITIONS  
FOR PARTS OF SOUTHEAST MINNESOTA, NORTHEAST IOWA, AND SOUTHWEST INTO  
CENTRAL WISCONSIN.  
 
THE NEXT OUTLOOK WILL BE ISSUED ON THURSDAY, MARCH 1ST.  
 
***FLOOD POTENTIAL HIGHLIGHTS***  
 
OVERALL, THE FLOOD POTENTIAL FOR THE COMING SPRING LOOKS TO BE NEAR  
OR BELOW NORMAL FOR MUCH OF THE AREA, WITH JUST A FEW TRIBUTARIES OF  
THE MISSISSIPPI SLIGHTLY MORE LIKELY TO EXPERIENCE SOME DEGREE OF  
FLOODING.  
 
THROUGH MID-FEBRUARY, TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE REGION HAVE BEEN 1 TO  
4 DEGREES COLDER-THAN-NORMAL THIS WINTER. MEANWHILE, PRECIPITATION  
SINCE NOVEMBER IS RUNNING ANYWHERE FROM 1 TO 3 INCHES BELOW  
NORMAL. THIS HAS RESULTED IN ABNORMALLY DRY CONDITIONS DEVELOPING  
ACROSS THE SOUTHERN THIRD OF WISCONSIN. MEANWHILE, THE REMAINDER  
OF THE AREA HAS NEAR-NORMAL SOIL MOISTURE.  
 
SNOWPACK GENERALLY AVERAGES 3 TO 9 INCHES AREAWIDE AS OF FEBRUARY  
14TH, WITH SNOWPACK WATER CONTENT GENERALLY 1 INCH OR LESS SOUTH OF  
INTERSTATE 94 AND 1 TO 1.5 INCHES ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF THE  
REGION.  
 
WITH LONGER STRETCHES OF COLD WEATHER THIS WINTER, FROST DEPTHS  
AVERAGE 24 TO 36 INCHES, AND MANY RIVERS HAVE PARTIAL TO TOTAL ICE  
COVER, SOME QUITE THICK. THAT ICE, BOTH IN THE RIVERS AND IN THE  
GROUND, MAY PLAY A ROLE DURING THE EARLY SPRING, WITH ANY HEAVY RAIN  
THAT OCCURS LIKELY TO RUNOFF QUICKLY. THAT COULD LEAD TO RAPID RISES  
OR FLOODING AS WELL AS POSSIBLE ICE JAM FORMATION, BUT AGAIN WILL BE  
DEPENDENT ON HEAVY RAINS OCCURRING.  
 
IN TABLE 1 BELOW, THE CURRENT (CS) AND HISTORICAL (HS) OR NORMAL  
PROBABILITIES OF EXCEEDING MINOR, MODERATE, AND MAJOR FLOOD STAGES  
ARE LISTED FOR THE VALID TIME PERIOD.  
 
CS VALUES INDICATE THE PROBABILITY OF REACHING A FLOOD CATEGORY  
BASED ON CURRENT CONDITIONS.  
 
HS VALUES INDICATE THE PROBABILITY OF REACHING A FLOOD CATEGORY  
BASED ON HISTORICAL OR NORMAL CONDITIONS.  
 
WHEN THE VALUE OF CS IS GREATER THAN HS, THE PROBABILITY OF  
EXCEEDING THAT LEVEL IS HIGHER THAN NORMAL. WHEN THE VALUE OF CS  
IS LESS THAN HS...THE PROBABILITY OF EXCEEDING THAT LEVEL IS  
LOWER THAN NORMAL.  
   
..TABLE 1--PROBABILITIES FOR MINOR, MODERATE AND MAJOR FLOODING
 
 
VALID PERIOD: 02/18/2018 - 05/19/2018  
 
: CURRENT AND HISTORICAL  
: CHANCES OF EXCEEDING  
: FLOOD CATEGORIES  
: AS A PERCENTAGE (%)  
CATEGORICAL :  
FLOOD STAGES (FT) : MINOR MODERATE MAJOR  
LOCATION MINOR MOD MAJOR : CS HS CS HS CS HS  
 
-------- ----- ----- ----- : --- --- --- --- --- ---  
:MISSISSIPPI RIVER  
LAKE CITY 16.0 18.0 20.0 : 18 25 12 9 7 5  
WABASHA 12.0 14.0 16.0 : 51 56 17 19 11 8  
ALMA DAM 4 16.0 17.0 18.0 : 11 8 7 6 <5 <5  
MN CITY DAM 5 660.0 662.0 665.0 : 20 27 14 12 7 6  
WINONA DAM 5A 655.0 659.0 661.0 : 24 37 12 9 7 6  
WINONA 13.0 15.0 18.0 : 28 43 18 22 12 9  
TREMPEALEAU 647.0 649.0 651.0 : 23 36 15 13 7 7  
LA CRESCENT 641.0 643.0 645.0 : 23 30 14 12 8 7  
LA CROSSE 12.0 13.0 15.5 : 32 44 18 26 10 8  
GENOA 631.0 634.0 636.0 : 36 48 13 11 7 7  
LANSING 17.0 19.0 20.0 : 13 10 7 8 6 <5  
LYNXVILLE 625.0 628.0 631.0 : 17 23 12 9 6 <5  
MCGREGOR 16.0 19.0 22.0 : 44 52 17 27 9 9  
GUTTENBERG 15.0 18.0 21.0 : 35 46 14 14 7 <5  
:ZUMBRO RIVER  
ZUMBRO FALLS 18.0 24.0 26.0 : 23 8 <5 <5 <5 <5  
:SOUTH FORK ZUMBRO RIVER  
ROCHESTER 14.0 18.0 20.0 : 25 <5 <5 <5 <5 <5  
:ROOT RIVER  
HOUSTON 15.0 17.0 18.0 : 20 10 <5 <5 <5 <5  
:SOUTH BRANCH ROOT RIVER  
LANESBORO 12.0 16.0 18.0 : 10 10 <5 <5 <5 <5  
:CEDAR RIVER  
LANSING 18.0 20.0 22.0 : <5 7 <5 <5 <5 <5  
AUSTIN 15.0 18.0 20.0 : <5 10 <5 7 <5 5  
CHARLES CITY 12.0 15.0 18.0 : 10 19 <5 9 <5 6  
:TURTLE CREEK  
AUSTIN 10.5 12.0 14.0 : 11 16 7 7 <5 <5  
:TURKEY RIVER  
ELKADER 12.0 16.0 20.0 : 54 46 19 21 <5 <5  
GARBER 17.0 20.0 23.0 : 43 40 26 21 13 14  
:UPPER IOWA RIVER  
DECORAH 12.0 13.0 14.0 : <5 <5 <5 <5 <5 <5  
DORCHESTER 14.0 17.0 19.0 : 54 19 22 5 8 <5  
:TREMPEALEAU RIVER  
ARCADIA 8.0 9.0 10.0 : 13 5 <5 <5 <5 <5  
DODGE 9.0 11.0 12.0 : >95 55 17 8 <5 <5  
:BLACK RIVER  
NEILLSVILLE 18.0 20.0 22.0 : <5 <5 <5 <5 <5 <5  
BLACK RIVER FALLS 47.0 51.0 55.0 : 51 57 18 24 <5 <5  
GALESVILLE 12.0 13.0 15.0 : 48 52 21 37 <5 <5  
:KICKAPOO RIVER  
LA FARGE 12.0 13.0 14.0 : <5 <5 <5 <5 <5 <5  
VIOLA 14.0 16.0 18.0 : 36 30 <5 <5 <5 <5  
READSTOWN 11.0 14.0 16.0 : 54 35 <5 <5 <5 <5  
SOLDIERS GROVE 13.0 16.0 19.0 : 33 27 <5 <5 <5 <5  
GAYS MILLS 13.0 15.0 17.0 : 59 47 <5 8 <5 <5  
STEUBEN 12.0 13.0 15.0 : 32 22 8 8 <5 <5  
:WISCONSIN RIVER  
MUSCODA 9.0 10.0 11.0 : 10 17 7 8 <5 <5  
:YELLOW RIVER  
NECEDAH 15.0 16.5 18.0 : 54 71 28 45 9 14  
 
LEGEND  
CS = CONDITIONAL SIMULATION (CURRENT OUTLOOK)  
HS = HISTORICAL SIMULATION  
FT = FEET  
 
***CLIMATE INFORMATION***  
 
THROUGH THE END OF FEBRUARY, TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO AVERAGE  
NEAR TO ABOVE NORMAL, WITH PRECIPITATION ALSO EXPECTED TO BE NEAR  
TO ABOVE NORMAL. SHOULD SIGNIFICANT SNOW ACCUMULATE ACROSS THE  
AREA OVER THE NEXT FEW WEEKS, THE RISK FOR SPRING SNOW MELT  
FLOODING MAY INCREASE SLIGHTLY. AS SUCH, BE SURE TO MONITOR THE  
UPDATED SPRING FLOOD OUTLOOK FORECAST TO BE ISSUED THURSDAY, MARCH  
1ST.  
 
LOOKING AHEAD TO MARCH, THERE ARE INCREASED CHANCES FOR BELOW  
NORMAL TEMPERATURES. THIS WILL ESPECIALLY BE TRUE FOR THE FIRST  
HALF OF THE MONTH. AS FAR AS PRECIPITATION GOES, THERE IS NO  
STRONG CLIMATOLOGICAL SIGNAL DURING MARCH, WITH EQUAL CHANCES FOR  
ABOVE, NEAR, OR BELOW NORMAL PRECIPITATION. AS STATED ABOVE,  
SHOULD HEAVY PRECIPITATION FALL ONTO FROZEN GROUND, THE RISK FOR  
FLOODING WILL BE INCREASED.  
 
IN TABLE 2 BELOW, THE 95 THROUGH 5 PERCENT COLUMNS INDICATE THE  
PROBABILITY OF EXCEEDING THE LISTED STAGE LEVELS (FT) FOR THE VALID  
TIME PERIOD.  
   
..TABLE 2--EXCEEDANCE PROBABILITIES
 
 
CHANCE OF EXCEEDING STAGES  
AT SPECIFIC LOCATIONS  
VALID PERIOD: 02/18/2018 - 05/19/2018  
LOCATION 95% 90% 75% 50% 25% 10% 5%  
-------- ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------  
:MISSISSIPPI RIVER  
LAKE CITY 10.2 11.7 12.7 13.9 15.0 19.1 20.7  
WABASHA 9.4 10.4 11.4 12.0 12.8 16.5 18.0  
ALMA DAM 4 7.4 8.6 9.6 10.7 11.8 16.2 17.9  
MN CITY DAM 5 653.9 655.2 656.4 657.8 659.1 664.2 666.1  
WINONA DAM 5A 649.4 650.7 651.9 653.4 654.7 660.1 661.8  
WINONA 7.9 9.2 10.4 11.8 13.2 18.7 20.1  
TREMPEALEAU 642.4 643.6 644.5 645.7 646.7 650.6 651.8  
LA CRESCENT 635.4 637.1 638.2 639.4 640.5 644.4 645.8  
LA CROSSE 7.3 9.0 10.0 11.2 12.2 15.5 16.7  
GENOA 626.1 628.1 629.2 630.5 631.5 635.3 637.3  
LANSING 8.9 10.0 11.0 12.1 13.6 18.0 20.7  
LYNXVILLE 618.2 619.7 620.9 622.4 623.8 628.5 631.6  
MCGREGOR 11.3 12.1 13.4 15.6 17.6 21.9 25.7  
GUTTENBERG 10.2 11.1 12.3 14.0 15.8 18.9 21.8  
:ZUMBRO RIVER  
ZUMBRO FALLS 8.6 9.5 11.8 13.7 17.3 19.6 21.0  
:SOUTH FORK ZUMBRO RIVER  
ROCHESTER 6.0 6.9 9.8 11.5 14.0 15.4 15.9  
:ROOT RIVER  
HOUSTON 5.2 6.2 8.7 11.9 14.9 16.1 16.5  
:SOUTH BRANCH ROOT RIVER  
LANESBORO 3.4 4.1 5.2 7.5 9.5 11.8 14.2  
:CEDAR RIVER  
LANSING 12.5 13.1 13.7 14.6 15.4 16.2 16.6  
AUSTIN 6.3 7.0 7.8 9.3 10.6 11.8 13.4  
CHARLES CITY 5.0 5.3 6.1 7.5 9.3 11.6 14.4  
:TURTLE CREEK  
AUSTIN 4.4 5.4 6.2 7.3 8.8 11.0 12.3  
:TURKEY RIVER  
ELKADER 8.1 8.9 10.1 12.2 15.2 17.8 18.6  
GARBER 10.1 11.2 13.7 16.3 20.4 24.8 28.4  
:UPPER IOWA RIVER  
DECORAH 3.8 4.3 5.0 5.9 6.9 7.9 9.0  
DORCHESTER 10.6 11.2 12.3 14.3 16.5 18.7 20.2  
:TREMPEALEAU RIVER  
ARCADIA 6.1 6.4 6.8 7.4 7.6 8.1 8.6  
DODGE 9.1 9.2 9.7 10.3 10.8 11.3 11.8  
:BLACK RIVER  
NEILLSVILLE 7.9 8.4 8.9 11.0 12.8 14.0 15.3  
BLACK RIVER FALLS 41.6 42.4 43.5 47.4 50.2 52.6 54.8  
GALESVILLE 8.3 8.8 10.1 11.7 13.0 13.8 14.4  
:KICKAPOO RIVER  
LA FARGE 6.5 6.7 7.9 8.8 10.6 11.4 11.7  
VIOLA 11.9 12.1 12.9 13.7 14.8 15.4 15.8  
READSTOWN 7.9 8.2 9.7 11.1 11.9 12.6 12.9  
SOLDIERS GROVE 10.0 10.4 11.4 12.5 13.3 14.2 14.4  
GAYS MILLS 10.6 10.9 12.1 13.3 13.9 14.7 15.0  
STEUBEN 9.7 9.9 10.7 11.5 12.2 12.9 13.1  
:WISCONSIN RIVER  
MUSCODA 3.7 4.3 4.7 6.5 8.1 8.9 10.2  
:YELLOW RIVER  
NECEDAH 13.1 13.3 14.1 15.1 16.6 17.9 18.6  
 
THESE LONG-RANGE PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOKS CONTAIN FORECAST VALUES THAT  
ARE CALCULATED USING MULTIPLE SEASON SCENARIOS FROM 30 OR MORE YEARS  
OF CLIMATOLOGICAL DATA, INCLUDING CURRENT CONDITIONS OF THE  
RIVER, SOIL MOISTURE, SNOW COVER, AND 30 AND 90 DAY LONG-RANGE  
OUTLOOKS OF TEMPERATURE AND PRECIPITATION. BY PROVIDING A RANGE  
OF PROBABILITIES...THE LEVEL OF RISE ASSOCIATED WITH LONG-RANGE  
PLANNING DECISIONS CAN BE DETERMINED. THESE PROBABILISTIC  
FORECASTS ARE PART OF THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE'S ADVANCED  
HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE.  
 
ALL OF THIS INFORMATION IS ALSO AVAILABLE IN GRAPHICAL FORMAT  
ON THE INTERNET AT:  
 
HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/LACROSSE  
 
THE SECOND SPRING FLOOD OUTLOOK WILL BE ISSUED MARCH 1ST.  
 

 
 
DTJ/LAWRENCE  
 
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