056  
FXUS63 KARX 222332  
AFDARX  
 
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION  
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LA CROSSE WI  
632 PM CDT SAT JUL 22 2017  
   
SHORT TERM
 
(TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT)  
ISSUED AT 124 PM CDT SAT JUL 22 2017  
 
WATER VAPOR SHOWING A MID-LEVEL CIRCULATION MOVING EAST ALONG THE  
U.S./CANADIAN BORDER. THIS WILL PUSH A WEAK SURFACE TROUGH THROUGH  
THE AREA LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO THIS EVENING. BEST FORCING/P-V  
ADVECTION WITH THIS MID-LEVEL FEATURE SWINGS ACROSS NORTHERN WI BUT  
THERE WILL BE ENOUGH SURFACE CONVERGENCE TO TRIGGER A SCATTERED  
STORMS FURTHER SOUTH INTO OUR AREA. RAP DEPICTING 1000-2000J/KG  
MUCAPE ALONG WITH 20-25KT OF 0-3KM BULK SHEAR. THIS LOOKS TO BE  
ENOUGH TO SUPPORT A FEW STRONG TO POSSIBLY SEVERE STORMS. DAMAGING  
WINDS AND A FEW LARGER HAILSTONES WOULD BE THE MAIN THREAT.  
 
MUCH NEEDED DRIER/COOLER AIR FILTERS INTO THE AREA SUNDAY AS AN AREA  
OF HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM CANADA. PLAN ON HIGH TEMPERATURES IN  
THE MIDDLE 70S TO LOWER 80S WITH DEW POINTS IN THE UPPER 50S TO  
LOWER 60S.  
   
LONG TERM
 
(MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)  
ISSUED AT 124 PM CDT SAT JUL 22 2017  
 
HIGH PRESSURE THANKFULLY REMAINS IN CONTROL THROUGH MONDAY,  
PROVIDING ANOTHER DRY/PLEASANT DAY. LOOK FOR HIGHS IN THE 70S WITH  
DEW POINTS IN THE MAINLY IN THE 50S TO LOWER 60S.  
 
SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORMS CHANCES THEN RETURN TUESDAY, CONTINUING  
INTO THURSDAY AS A MID-LEVEL TROUGH AND SURFACE COLD FRONT SLOWLY  
MAKE THEIR WAY FROM THE NORTHERN PLAINS INTO THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI  
RIVER VALLEY. TOO EARLY TO TELL WHETHER SEVERE WEATHER WILL BE A  
FACTOR OR NOT, BUT LOOKS LIKE LATER TUESDAY AFTERNOON INTO TUESDAY  
NIGHT COULD BE A WINDOW OF OPPORTUNITY AS THE GFS AND ECMWF BOTH  
SHOW SUFFICIENT CAPE AND SHEAR. THERE IS SLIGHT TIMING DIFFERENCE  
BETWEEN THE TWO MODELS, SO DETAILS STILL NEED TO BE IRONED OUT.  
OTHERWISE, LOOKS LIKE SEASONABLY WARM CONDITIONS WITH A BIT MORE  
MUGGINESS TO THE AIR AS DEW POINTS START CREEPING UP AGAIN.  
 
FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY LOOK TO BE MAINLY DRY AS ANOTHER CANADIAN HIGHS  
SLIDES SOUTH INTO THE REGION.  
 

 
   
AVIATION
 
(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SUNDAY EVENING)  
ISSUED AT 632 PM CDT SAT JUL 22 2017  
 
ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL MOVE ACROSS THE TAF SITES  
EARLY THIS EVENING. THEN, HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN LATE TONIGHT  
INTO SUNDAY WITH VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED.  
 

 
   
HYDROLOGY
 
 
ISSUED AT 124 PM CDT SAT JUL 22 2017  
 
ONGOING FLOODING ACROSS PARTS OF NORTHEAST IOWA INTO  
FAR SOUTHWEST WISCONSIN THIS AFTERNOON. IN PARTICULAR, MUCH OF CLAYTON,  
SOUTHERN FAYETTE, AND SOUTHERN GRANT COUNTIES APPEAR TO BE  
HARDEST HIT, WITH REPORTS OF 5-10 INCHES OF RAIN FALLING. THIS  
RAINFALL WILL TAKE A WHILE TO WORK THROUGH THE RIVER SYSTEMS, WITH THE  
BIGGEST CONCERNS FOCUSED ALONG THE VOLGA RIVER AND SOUTHERN  
REACHES OF THE TURKEY RIVER, MAINLY SOUTH OF ELKADER.  
ADDITIONALLY, WATER CONTINUES TO PERCOLATE DOWN THE KICKAPOO  
RIVER, WITH THE CREST HAVING JUST PASSED GAYS MILLS, AND ALONG THE  
TREMPEALEAU RIVER, WITH DODGE CRESTING EARLIER. HIGH/FLOODING WATER  
ALSO REMAINS ALONG THE LA CROSSE RIVER. FLOODING IS EXPECTED TO  
CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT FEW DAYS. DRIER WEATHER IS ON TAP FOR SUNDAY  
INTO MONDAY BUT THEN ADDITIONAL SHOWERS AND STORM CHANCES ARE  
EXPECTED TO RETURN TUESDAY, LASTING INTO THURSDAY.  
 

 
   
ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
 
 
WI...NONE.  
MN...NONE.  
IA...NONE.  

 
 

 
 
SHORT TERM...DAS  
LONG TERM...DAS  
AVIATION...WETENKAMP  
HYDROLOGY...DAS  
 
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.

The Nexlab WI Page
The Nexlab IA Page
The Nexlab MN Page Main Text Page