221
FXUS63 KDMX 212346
AFDDMX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DES MOINES IA
546 PM CST WED JAN 21 2026
...UPDATED FOR THE 00Z AVIATION DISCUSSION...
KEY MESSAGES
- BLIZZARD AND HIGH WIND WARNINGS IN EFFECT INTO THIS EVENING.
- ARCTIC COLD AIR ARRIVES THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND NIGHT. WIND
CHILL VALUES OF 25 TO 40 BELOW ZERO EXPECTED LATER THURSDAY
NIGHT INTO FRIDAY MORNING.
- ARCTIC COLD CONTINUES INTO SATURDAY WITH ADDITIONAL WAVES
LIKELY INTO NEXT WEEK.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 248 PM CST WED JAN 21 2026
A STRONG SYSTEM IS CURRENTLY MOVING THROUGH IOWA WITH THE MAIN COLD
FRONT EXTENDING ACROSS THE NORTHWEST THIRD OF THE STATE. SNOW
SHOWERS ARE MOVING ACROSS PARTS OF CENTRAL AND NORTH CENTRAL IOWA
AHEAD OF THE BOUNDARY AND THERE HAVE BEEN A FEW LIGHTNING PULSES
OVER NORTHWEST IOWA WITH A FEW OF THESE SNOW SHOWERS. PER THIS
WINTER TREND, THE WIND IS ONCE AGAIN OVER PERFORMING WITH NUMEROUS
60+ MPH GUSTS UPSTREAM OVER NORTHWEST IOWA/NORTHEAST NEBRASKA AND
SOUTH DAKOTA. THIS WIND IS LOCATED ALONG AND BEHIND THE COLD FRONT
AND IS TRACKING WELL WITH A 925 MB WIND MAX BUBBLE THAT WILL BE
MOVING ACROSS MUCH OF THE FORECAST AREA THIS AFTERNOON AND INTO THE
EARLY EVENING. WITH SNOWFALL LAST NIGHT OF 1 TO 3 INCHES AND SNOW
SHOWERS MOVING ACROSS NORTHERN IOWA AND THE POTENTIAL FOR ANOTHER 1
TO 2 INCHES TODAY, WE UPGRADED TO A BLIZZARD WARNING FOR NORTH
CENTRAL IOWA. A HIGH WIND WARNING HAS BEEN PLACED OVER THE REMAINDER
OF THE AREA WITH THE POTENTIAL OF 65 MPH WIND GUSTS AS THAT WIND MAX
AND STRONG PRESSURE HEIGHT RISES MOVE THROUGH. DETERMINISTIC MODEL
SOUNDINGS ARE SUGGESTING MIXING TO ABOVE 750 MB IS REQUIRED TO GET
SOME OF THESE WINDS TO THE SURFACE, FURTHER SUPPORTED BY THE STRONG
COLD ADVECTION.
HEADLINES HAVE BEEN EXTENDED TO 11 PM THOUGH THE WIND SHOULD BE
DIMINISHING PRIOR TO THEN. SEVERAL WAVES OF SNOW SHOWERS AND
HORIZONTAL CONVECTIVE ROLLS ARE ONGOING UPSTREAM ACROSS THE DAKOTAS
AND THIS SHOULD IMPACT PARTS OF NORTHERN IOWA INTO THE OVERNIGHT.
HEADLINES WILL BE DOWNGRADED EARLY AS CONDITIONS ALLOW.
MUCH OF THE FOCUS THIS FORECAST PERIOD WAS ON TODAY AND TONIGHT AND
UPGRADES TO HEADLINES. THE ARCTIC AIR INTRUSION ARRIVE THURSDAY
AFTERNOON NORTH AND ACROSS THE REST OF THE AREA THURSDAY NIGHT IS
THE OTHER AREA OF EMPHASIS. THIS IS THE COLDEST AIR SO FAR THIS
WINTER SEASON. MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW AN EXTREMELY COLD CORE OF
ARCTIC AIR ARRIVING OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS ON THURSDAY WITH AN
IMPRESSIVE -38C TO -39C CENTERED OVER GRAND FORKS, ND THURSDAY
AFTERNOON. TEMPERATURES WON'T BE QUITE THAT COLD INTO IOWA BY -30C
AT 850 MB MAY MOVE ACROSS NORTHERN IOWA. THE MAIN CONCERN OVER IOWA
IS VERY COLD TEMPERATURES WITH HIGHS MOSTLY BELOW ZERO ON FRIDAY AND
WIND CHILLS OF 25 TO 40 BELOW ZERO OVER THE ENTIRE AREA. WE WILL
LIKELY NEED TO UPGRADE TO AN EXTREME COLD WARNING. HAVE OPTED TO
LEAVE AS A WATCH FOR NOW UNTIL THE CURRENT SYSTEM MOVES THROUGH AND
FOCUS ON THE COLD HEADLINES TONIGHT INTO THURSDAY MORNING.
THESE ARCTIC COLD INTRUSIONS ARE VERY OFTEN ACCOMPANIED WITH SHALLOW
HORIZONTAL CONVECTIVE ROLES WHICH RESULT IN WAVES OF SNOW SHOWERS
THAT CAN QUICKLY REDUCE VISIBILITIES. WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR THIS.
THE LONG WAVE PATTERN THROUGH MUCH OF NEXT WEEK FEATURES MOSTLY
STRONG NORTHERLY FLOW INTO IOWA WITH SEVERAL SYSTEMS MOVING THORUGH
THE FLOW. THIS WILL LIKELY RESULT IN AN OVERALL COLD PERIOD WITH
WAVES OF ARCTIC AIR.
AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z FRIDAY/
ISSUED AT 538 PM CST WED JAN 21 2026
HAVE TRENDED DOWN THE WINDS FOR THE NEXT 3 HOURS FOR ALL SITES,
AND LESSENED RESTRICTIONS DUE TO DECREASING COVERAGE IN SNOW.
NORTHEAST SITES WILL CONTINUE TO SEE VSBY REDUCTIONS FROM BLSN.
GUSTS WILL CEASE BY 06Z AND THEN RETURN BY MIDDAY THURSDAY.
MONITORING THE POTENTIAL FOR ADDITIONAL SNOW SHOWERS IN NORTHERN
IOWA AFTER 18Z, BUT COVERAGE AND INTENSITY WILL BE MUCH LOWER
COMPARED TO TODAY.
DMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
BLIZZARD WARNING UNTIL 11 PM CST THIS EVENING FOR IAZ004>007-
015>017-023>028-038-039.
EXTREME COLD WATCH FROM LATE THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY
MORNING FOR IAZ004>007-015>017-023>028-033>039-044>050-057>062-
070>075-081>086-092>097.
HIGH WIND WARNING UNTIL 11 PM CST THIS EVENING FOR IAZ033>037-
044>050-057>062-070>075-081>086-092>097.
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 11 PM CST THIS EVENING FOR
IAZ034>037-050.
DISCUSSION...DONAVON
AVIATION...JIMENEZ
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