237
FXUS63 KDMX 071733 AAA
AFDDMX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DES MOINES IA
1133 AM CST SAT NOV 7 2009
..UPDATED 07/12Z AVIATION DISCUSSION
SHORT TERM
TODAY
NO MAJOR FORECAST CONCERNS TODAY WITH WEAK TROUGH MOVING THROUGH
STATE THIS MORNING BRINGING EVEN DRYER AIR INTO THE CWA AND A WIND
SHIFT. HIGH TEMPS TODAY LOOK TO REMAIN MILD...AND WENT AT OR
SLIGHTLY ABOVE GUIDANCE FOR THE MAJORITY OF THE CWA WHICH RESULTED
IN TWEAKING HIGH TEMPS UP TODAY FROM PREVIOUS FORECAST. VERY DRY
FORECAST SOUNDINGS THROUGHOUT THE DAY TODAY...SO CLOUD COVER REMAINS
MINIMAL. SURFACE HIGH SHOULD BE CENTERED OVER THE AREA BY LATE THIS
AFTERNOON...SO WINDS LOOK TO REMAIN MUCH CALMER THAN FRIDAY WITH A
WEAK PRESSURE GRADIENT.
LONG TERM
TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY
A WARM FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL BE STRETCHED ACROSS CENTRAL AND
NORTHERN IOWA SUNDAY MORNING. THE MAIN CONCERN FOR SUNDAY IS
TEMPERATURES. THERE IS A POTENTIAL FOR STRATUS TO DEVELOP ALONG AND
NORTH OF THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY...WHICH IF IT DEVELOPS MAY LINGER MUCH
OF THE DAY ESPECIALLY NEAR THE MN BORDER. OTHERWISE...DRY AIR
ENTRENCHED THROUGH THE MID LEVELS WILL LIMIT PRECIPITATION CHANCES
SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY. A BRIEF PERIOD OF SATURATION IS POSSIBLE LATE
SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY AS THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY SHIFTS BACK SOUTH AS
A COLD FRONT. THAT SAID...MOST OF SUNDAY NIGHT SHOULD REMAIN DRY
WITH THE MID LEVEL DRY WEDGE SLOW TO ERODE. A SHORT WAVE MOVING
THROUGH MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT ALONG WITH ENHANCED FORCING FROM A
WEAK COUPLED JET STRUCTURE WILL BRING SOME INSTABILITY WITH 400-600
J/KG OF MUCAPE AND NEGATIVE SHOWALTER VALUES.
HIGH PRESSURE MOVES IN BY TUESDAY AND WILL REMAIN IN CONTROL THROUGH
WEDNESDAY. MEX GUIDANCE APPEARS MUCH TOO WARM ON TUESDAY. MODEL
SOUNDINGS FROM GFS/ECMWF/GEM ALL SUGGEST NEARLY 10 DEGREES COOLER
AND HAVE TRENDED THIS WAY.
AVIATION
07/18Z
WK CDFNT ABOUT TO EXIT THE CWA WITH WNDS BCMG NNW-NLY THIS AFTN.
WINDS REL LGT ARND 10 KTS WITH OCNL GUSTS WITH OVERTURNING TIL
SNST. WNDS WILL DECOUPLE OVR NGT WITH A GENL NE-ELY FLOW OVR THE
STATE. DVLPG WRMFNT TO THE S OF IA BY MRNG WITH SELY FLOW DVLPG ON
SUN. NSW THRU PD WITH ONLY SCT-BKN HI CLDS XPCTD.
DMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
SHORT TERM...PODRAZIK
LONG TERM...DONAVON
AVIATION...MS NOV 09
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