512  
FXUS63 KDMX 302026  
AFDDMX  
 
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION  
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DES MOINES IA  
326 PM CDT SAT JUL 30 2016  
   
SHORT TERM
 
/TONIGHT/  
ISSUED AT 326 PM CDT SAT JUL 30 2016  
 
ONLY A FEW CONCERNS OVERNIGHT. WEAK FLOW AND SUBTLE FEATURES WILL  
AGAIN RESULT IN SOME FOG AND POTENTIAL STRATUS AFTER 06Z. REMAINING  
LIGHT SHOWERS TODAY WILL ALL BUT END AFT 00Z. UPPER LEVEL RIDGE  
LIKELY TO TRAP MOISTURE WITHIN A COOLING BOUNDARY LAYER WITH  
POTENTIAL FOR ADDITIONAL CLOUDS OVERNIGHT ESPECIALLY OVER THE EAST  
AND NORTHEAST. MODEL GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THAT PATCHY DENSE FOG MAY  
DEVELOP EAST OF INTERSTATE 80...ESPECIALLY IN RIVER VALLEYS AND LOW  
LYING AREAS AROUND 12Z. ACROSS THE FAR WEST INCREASING CLOUDS AND  
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IN RESPONSE TO A DEVELOPING WARM FRONT AND  
INCREASING THETAE ADVECTION WILL NEAR THE WESTERN EDGE OF THE  
FORECAST AREA BY 12Z. HAVE CONTINUED SLIGHT TO CHANCE PRECIPITATION  
FOR THE WEST.  
   
LONG TERM
 
/SUNDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/  
ISSUED AT 326 PM CDT SAT JUL 30 2016  
 
HEIGHTS WILL BE BUILDING ACROSS THE CENTRAL UNITED STATES OVER  
THE NEXT FEW DAYS. THIS WILL LEAD TO INCREASING WARM ADVECTION  
WITH DEEPENING SOUTHERLY FLOW. ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA, THIS  
INCREASE IN WARM ADVECTION WILL BEGIN IN EARNEST ON SUNDAY INTO  
SUNDAY NIGHT WITH STRENGTHENING SOUTHERLY FLOW ON BACKSIDE OF  
RETREATING SURFACE RIDGE. THE INCREASE IN MOISTURE TRANSPORT AND  
WEAK FORCING MAY LEAD TO SOME SCATTERED STORMS ACROSS THE WEST AND  
SOUTH ON SUNDAY. HOWEVER, THE BIGGER PUSH COMES SUNDAY NIGHT INTO  
MONDAY AS A BOUNDARY LIFT NORTHWARD INTO THE STATE. THIS WILL  
PROVIDE A FOCUS FOR THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPMENT ON SUNDAY NIGHT IN  
CENTRAL IOWA WHICH WILL LINGER INTO MONDAY. SOME OF THESE STORMS  
WILL LIKELY BE STRONG AND SOME LIMITED THREAT OF SEVERE WEATHER.  
HEAVY RAINFALL WILL BE MORE LIKELY GIVEN THE HIGH PWATS MOVING  
INTO THE STATE WITH HIGH RAINFALL RATES IN SOME LOCATIONS. THE  
THREAT FOR STORMS WILL PUSH NORTHWARD LATER MONDAY INTO MONDAY  
NIGHT AS THE BOUNDARY LIFTS AND FOCUS SHIFTS TOWARD THE MINNESOTA  
BORDER. THIS BEST THREAT FOR PRECIPITATION THROUGH MIDWEEK WILL  
THEN REMAIN ACROSS NORTHERN IA CLOSEST TO THE WESTERLIES. A BETTER  
THREAT FOR PRECIPITATION WILL THEN ARRIVE LATER THURSDAY INTO  
EARLY FRIDAY WHEN A SURFACE FRONT DROPS INTO THE STATE.  
 
TEMPERATURES WILL GRADUALLY INCREASE EACH DAY INTO TUESDAY AND  
WEDNESDAY AS WARM ADVECTION INTENSIFIES. HEADLINE FOR HEAT MAY  
BECOME NECESSARY BY TUESDAY GIVEN THE COMBINATION OF HEAT AND  
HUMIDITY AND THIS WILL CONTINUE TO BE MONITORED CLOSELY. THE WILL  
PERSIST THROUGH THURSDAY BEFORE COOLING OCCURS BEHIND A COLD  
FRONT INTO FRIDAY.  
 

 
   
AVIATION
 
/FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY AFTERNOON/  
ISSUED AT 1242 PM CDT SAT JUL 30 2016  
 
MAIN CONCERN WILL BE POTENTIAL FOR LOW CIGS AND POTENTIAL FOG  
NEARER 12Z SUNDAY. CIGS HAVE LIFTED WITH VFR CONDITIONS AND ISO  
SHOWERS OVER REGION THROUGH 01Z. OTHERWISE SUFFICIENT MOISTURE  
WILL CONTINUE WITH LIGHT WINDS OVERNIGHT TO HAVE STRATUS REDEVELOP  
TOWARD MORNING. BY 31/15Z VFR CONDITIONS AGAIN EXPECTED AS CIGS  
AND FOG LIFT.  
 

 
   
DMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
 
NONE.  
 

 
 

 
 
SHORT TERM...REV  
LONG TERM...COGIL  
AVIATION...REV  
 
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