410  
FXUS63 KDMX 270436  
AFDDMX  
 
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION  
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DES MOINES IA  
1136 PM CDT THU APR 26 2018  
   
..UPDATED 06Z AVIATION DISCUSSION
 
 
   
SHORT TERM
 
/TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/  
ISSUED AT 303 PM CDT THU APR 26 2018  
 
DRY COLD FRONT TO PUSH THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA THIS EVENING.  
THIS WILL BE FOLLOWED BY A FEW HOUR WINDOW OF BRISK NORTH WIND AND  
COOLER TEMPS. READINGS BEHIND THE BOUNDARY ARE IN THE MID 50S WITH  
DEWPOINTS IN THE MID 20S. THIS BRINGS ME TO THE PROBLEM FOR  
FRIDAY. ON FRIDAY HIGH PRESSURE TO THE WEST WILL SLIDE SOUTHEAST  
WITH REINFORCING NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT. SOUNDINGS SHOW SOME PRETTY  
DEEP MIXING FRIDAY WITH 28 TO 32 KTS ATOP THE MIXED LAYER. USING  
THE MIX DOWN TD TOOL, I DID DROP DEWPOINTS ON FRIDAY BUT HAD TO  
TEMPER TO BE WITHIN COLLABORATION BUT IF THOSE UPSTREAM DEWPOINTS  
IN THE MID 20S COME INTO IA ON FRIDAY, COMBINED WITH THE STRONGER  
WIND GUSTS, THERE WILL BE FIRE CONCERNS FOR FRIDAY ESPECIALLY IN  
THE AFTERNOON WHEN WINDS ARE STRONGEST. FOR NOW WILL RAMP UP  
WORDING IN PRODUCTS BUT IF TRENDS CONTINUE, FRIDAY MAY BE OUR  
FIRST RED FLAG WARNING DAY IN QUITE SOME TIME.  
   
LONG TERM
 
/FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/  
ISSUED AT 303 PM CDT THU APR 26 2018  
 
NOT MUCH GOING ON IN THE FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY PERIOD WITH  
AN AMPLIFIED UPPER RIDGE OUT WEST GRADUALLY SHIFTING INTO THE  
UPPER MIDWEST WE WILL BE DRY WITH WARMING TEMPS INTO MONDAY. LATE  
SUNDAY INTO MONDAY THE RIDGE AXIS WILL BE EAST OF THE STATE WITH  
BROAD SOUTHWEST FLOW IN PLACE. MONDAY STILL LOOKS LIKE THE WARMEST  
DAY THOUGH MAY BE TEMPERED BY CLOUD COVER. STILL THINK THE CLOUD  
COVER WILL HAVE MINIMAL IMPACT.  
 
MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY STILL LOOKS LIKE AN ACTIVE PERIOD WITH  
SHORTWAVES RIDING UP THE BACKSIDE OF THE DEPARTING RIDGE AND A  
BOUNDARY OR TWO TO CONTEND WITH. MODEL DIFFERENCES STILL MAKE IT  
HARD TO DEFINE SEVERE THREATS BUT THE TIME OF CONCERN DEFINITELY  
LOOKS LIKE LATE DAY TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...DEPENDING ON WHICH  
MODEL YOU BELIEVE. THE GFS DRIVES A COLD FRONT THROUGH US TUESDAY  
NIGHT FOR A QUICK SHOT OF STRONG/SEVERE STORMS AND THAT'S ABOUT  
IT. THE EURO DRAGS THE FRONT THROUGH ABOUT THE SAME TIME BUT THEN  
DEVELOPS A SECOND LOW WITH A WARM FRONT LIFTING INTO THE STATE FOR  
WEDNESDAY. IF THIS MODEL IS CORRECT, WE WILL HAVE MULTIPLE ROUNDS  
WITH TUESDAY NIGHT BEING THE FIRST THEN WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND  
WEDNESDAY EVENING.  
 
BY LATE WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY BOTH MODELS DRIVE A DEEP TROUGH  
THROUGH THE REGION PUSHING THE PRECIP CHANCES INTO THE GREAT  
LAKES. TEMPS BY LATE IN THE PERIOD AND BEYOND WILL THEN BE  
SOMEWHAT COOLER WITH THE TROUGH IN PLACE.  
 

 
   
AVIATION
 
/FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY NIGHT/  
ISSUED AT 1136 PM CDT THU APR 26 2018  
 
FRONT HAS COMPLETELY PASSED THROUGH IOWA LEAVING NORTHWESTERLY  
WINDS ACROSS THE STATE. GUSTY WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO DIMINISH  
OVERNIGHT, BUT WILL INCREASE AGAIN AND SHIFT WESTERLY INTO THE  
MORNING HOURS. LOW MOISTURE WILL KEEP CEILINGS AND VISIBILITY AT  
VFR THROUGH THE PERIOD.  
 
CEILINGS AND VISIBILITY CONFIDENCE... HIGH  
WIND CONFIDENCE... HIGH  
 

 
   
DMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
 
 
NONE.  

 
 

 
 
SHORT TERM...FAB  
LONG TERM...FAB  
AVIATION...KRULL/ANSORGE  
 
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