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FXUS63 KDMX 151122
AFDDMX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DES MOINES IA
522 AM CST WED JAN 15 2025
...UPDATED FOR THE 12Z AVIATION DISCUSSION...
KEY MESSAGES
- BRIEF WARM UP THROUGH THE END OF THE WORK WEEK WITH HIGHS
RETURNING TO THE 30S AND 40S.
- HIGH CONFIDENCE OF WELL-BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES THIS WEEKEND
INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. WIND CHILLS OF -10 TO -20 OR COLDER
LIKELY AT TIMES, ESPECIALLY NORTH.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 251 AM CST WED JAN 15 2025
CLOUD COVER TIED TO A PASSING MID-LEVEL WAVE HAS KEPT
TEMPERATURES FROM FALLING OUT OVERNIGHT AND IN SOME AREAS HAS
EVEN ALLOWED TEMPERATURES TO WARM A BIT. REGARDLESS, IT'S BEEN
ANOTHER CHILLY NIGHT TIME WITH TEMPS IN THE SINGLE DIGITS ABOVE
AND BELOW ZERO. LIGHT WINDS HAVE MITIGATED MOST WIND CHILL
CONCERNS, HOWEVER WINDS WILL START TO PICK UP OUT OF THE
SOUTHWEST TOWARD DAYBREAK AND THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS AS A
SURFACE HIGH DEPARTS EAST. WIND CHILLS IN THE SINGLE DIGITS AND
TEENS BELOW ZERO CAN BE EXPECTED UNTIL WARM AIR ADVECTION ALLOWS
TEMPS TO RECOVER INTO THE MID 20S TO NEAR 30 THIS AFTERNOON. A
SHORTWAVE SLIDES THROUGH MN/WI LATER IN THE DAY. THE LOCAL AREA
IS CLIPPED BY DEEPER KINEMATIC FORCING AND THE POTENTIAL FOR
SOME LIGHT SNOW ACTIVITY AS SUFFICIENT LIFT SATURATES THE DGZ.
ADDED LOW END (20-30%) POPS ACROSS THE NORTH LATE AFTERNOON AND
EVENING. A DRY SUB-CLOUD LAYER WILL LIMIT SNOW INTENSITY AND
COVERAGE, SO LITTLE TO NO ACCUMULATION IS EXPECTED. MOISTURE AND
LIFT DECREASE WITH SOUTHERLY EXTENT, BUT SOME FLURRIES ARE NOT
OUT OF THE QUESTION AND MAY NEED TO BE ADDED TO THE FORECAST.
RIDGING BUILDS OVER THE REGION AS OUR WARM UP CONTINUES WITH HIGHS
IN THE 30S TO NEAR 40 ON THURSDAY AND INTO THE 40S FOR FRIDAY. THE
MILD CONDITIONS ARE SHORT LIVED AS WE TAKE ANOTHER POLAR PLUNGE
OVER THE WEEKEND AND INTO NEXT WEEK. A VIGOROUS SHORTWAVE
CROSSING THE SOUTHERN CANADIAN PRAIRIES WILL BEGIN TO CARVE OUT
A DEEPER LONGWAVE TROUGH AND DISLODGE A COLD AIRMASS BACK INTO
THE THE CONUS. THE INITIAL COLD FRONT IS FORCED THROUGH THE
STATE LATE FRIDAY, FOLLOWED BY REINFORCING BOUTS OF COLD AIR
ADVECTION THROUGH THE WEEKEND WHICH WILL DROP HIGHS INTO THE
SINGLE DIGITS SUNDAY INTO MONDAY AS THE COLD SNAP PEAKS. PERIODS
OF WIND CHILLS AT -10 TO -20 OR COLDER ARE LIKELY DURING THE
OVERNIGHT AND MORNING HOURS, ESPECIALLY NORTH WHERE ADVISORY
LEVEL COLD IS BECOMING MORE LIKELY. DETERMINISTIC AND ENSEMBLE
DATA SETS ARE NEARLY UNANIMOUSLY DRY THROUGH THIS STRETCH AS THE
AIRMASS IS QUITE MOISTURE STARVED. TEMPERATURES BEGIN TO
REBOUND TOWARD THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK AS THE COLD AIRMASS IS
ERODED BENEATH BUILDING HEIGHTS ALOFT.
AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z THURSDAY/
ISSUED AT 521 AM CST WED JAN 15 2025
VFR CONDITIONS CURRENTLY PREVAIL AT ALL TERMINALS. MAIN FORECAST
CONCERNS AT THIS POINT CENTER AROUND THE POTENTIAL FOR A BRIEF
PERIOD OF LIGHT SNOW IN NORTHERN IOWA LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING. ANY SNOW ACTIVITY SHOULD BE QUICK MOVING AND NOT RESULT IN
MUCH FOR ACCUMULATION, BUT A MOMENTARY PERIOD OF MVFR CIG AND VISBY
IS POSSIBLE AT KMCW. LESS CONFIDENCE FURTHER SOUTH AT KFOD AND KALO
AND OPTED TO LEAVE DRY IN THE TAF FOR NOW.
DMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
DISCUSSION...MARTIN
AVIATION...MARTIN
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