253  
FXUS63 KDVN 221117  
AFDDVN  
 
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION  
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE QUAD CITIES IA IL  
617 AM CDT FRI JUN 22 2018  
   
..AVIATION UPDATE
 
 
   
SYNOPSIS
 
 
ISSUED AT 324 AM CDT FRI JUN 22 2018  
 
CLOSED UPPER LEVEL LOW WAS LOCATED NEAR ST LOUIS MO EARLY THIS MORNING.  
BANDS OF MAINLY RAIN AND SHOWERS CONTINUE TO ROTATE WESTWARD AROUND  
THE LOW. ONE MAIN BAND WAS RETROGRADING THROUGH THE HWY 30 AND I-80  
CORRIDORS OVER IL INTO FAR EASTERN IA ATTENDANT TO EMBEDDED VORT MAX  
AND ZONE OF GREATER MID LEVEL MOISTURE TRANSPORT WRAPPING BACK AROUND  
THE UPPER LOW. OVERALL EXPECT A GRADUAL TRANSITION TO DRIER WEATHER OVER  
THE NEXT 24 HOURS AS THE UPPER LOW CONTINUES TO EXIT THE REGION.  
 

 
   
SHORT TERM
 
(TODAY AND TONIGHT)  
ISSUED AT 324 AM CDT FRI JUN 22 2018  
 
GRADUAL DIMINISHING TREND EXPECTED IN THE COVERAGE OF RAIN/SHOWERS  
TODAY AS THE UPPER LOW CONTINUES TO SLOWLY PUSH OFF TOWARD THE OHIO  
VALLEY. AREAS ALONG/EAST OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER WILL LIKELY HOLD  
ONTO RAIN CHANCES THE LONGEST BEING IN CLOSER PROXIMITY TO EMBEDDED  
DISTURBANCES ROTATING AROUND PERIPHERY OF UPPER LOW. ADDITIONAL  
RAINFALL IS EXPECTED TO BE MOSTLY LIGHT (0.25 INCH OR LESS) WITH SOME  
LOCALIZED AREAS OF MODERATE AMOUNTS NEAR 0.5 INCH POSSIBLE ALONG/EAST  
OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER. THESE AMOUNTS AND RAINFALL RATES SHOULD NOT  
RESULT IN ANY ADDITIONAL FLASH FLOODING, AND THEREFORE HAVE CANCELLED  
THE FLASH FLOOD WATCH. OTHERWISE, THE OTHER WEATHER STORY IS THE  
UNSEASONABLY COOL CONDITIONS ON TAP FOR TODAY. WITH CLOUDS AND NORTHEAST  
WINDS, FORECAST HIGHS WERE SHAVED A BIT MORE TOWARD COOL SIDE OF GUIDANCE  
IN THE UPPER 60S TO LOWER 70S. AREAS THAT STAY CLOUDY ALL DAY (MOST  
FAVORED FROM QUAD CITIES AND POINTS SOUTH/EAST) COULD STRUGGLE INTO THE  
MID 60S FOR HIGHS. MEANWHILE, ANY AREAS THAT MANAGE SOME BREAKS ALLOWING  
FOR PEAKS OF SUN (BEST CHANCES NORTHWEST OF THE QUAD CITIES) COULD QUICKLY  
POP UP INTO THE MID 70S.  
 
TONIGHT, GENERALLY PARTLY TO MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES WITH SOME CLEARING  
OVERNIGHT AS WEAK HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR COOLER LOWS  
IN THE 50S.  
   
LONG TERM
 
(SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)  
ISSUED AT 324 AM CDT FRI JUN 22 2018  
 
WILL HAVE SOME LOW CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION (MAINLY WEST OF THE MISSISSIPPI  
RIVER) OVER THE SECOND HALF OF THE WEEKEND WITH POSSIBLY A FEW WEAK  
DISTURBANCES MOVING THROUGH WESTERLY/SEMI-ZONAL FLOW ALOFT. GENERALLY THOUGH  
IT LOOKS TO BE DRIER WEATHER THROUGH SUNDAY WITH MODERATING TEMPERATURES.  
 
WE ARE WATCHING THE POTENTIAL FOR ANOTHER ROUND OF HEAVY RAIN DEVELOPING  
LATER MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY ATTENDANT TO ANOTHER SLOW MOVING CLOSED LOW.  
STRONG MOISTURE ADVECTION AND DEEPENING MOIST CONVEYOR FEED (PWATS INCREASING  
TO AROUND 2 INCHES) COMBINED WITH MODERATE STRENGTH FORCING WILL BRING THE  
RISK OF STORMS (POSSIBLY A FEW STRONG STORMS) AND HEAVY RAINFALL. SOMETHING  
TO KEEP A CLOSE EYE ON GIVEN THE SATURATED SOILS AND SWOLLEN RIVERS IN SOME  
AREAS. TEMPS THROUGHOUT SHOULD TRANSITION CLOSER TO SEASONAL NORMS WITH  
HIGHS MAINLY IN THE 80S AND LOWS IN THE 60S.  
 

 
   
AVIATION
 
(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SATURDAY MORNING)  
ISSUED AT 610 AM CDT FRI JUN 22 2018  
 
NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO THE FORECAST FOR TODAY INTO TONIGHT.  
MVFR STRATUS FORECAST TO LAST THROUGH MOST OF THIS TAF CYCLE,  
WITH IFR EXPECTED AT KBRL THROUGH THE MID MORNING.  
 
MOISTURE ROTATING AROUND AN UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL BRING PERIODS OF  
SCATTERED SHOWERS THROUGH THE EVENING. THE RISK FOR THUNDER IS  
VERY LOW. UTTECH  
 

 
   
HYDROLOGY
 
 
ISSUED AT 1026 PM CDT THU JUN 21 2018  
 
FLOOD WARNING CONTINUES ON THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER FROM DUBUQUE TO  
GREGORY LANDING FOR MINOR TO MODERATE FLOODING. AT DUBUQUE THE  
RIVER HAS BEEN INCREASED TO MODERATE CATEGORY.  
 
ON THE ROCK RIVER MINOR TO MODERATE FLOODING IS EXPECTED FROM COMO  
TO MOLINE.  
 
ON THE WAPSIPINICON RIVER AT DE WITT MODERATE FLOODING WILL  
CONTINUE, AND ON THE IOWA RIVER AT MARENGO MINOR FLOODING IS  
FORECAST.  
 

 
   
CLIMATE
 
 
ISSUED AT 324 AM CDT FRI JUN 22 2018  
 
RECORD COOL HIGHS FOR JUNE 22...  
 
MOLINE.........65 IN 1992 AND PREVIOUS YEARS  
DUBUQUE........61 IN 1991  
 

 
   
DVN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
 
 
IA...NONE.  
IL...NONE.  
MO...NONE.  

 
 

 
 
SYNOPSIS...MCCLURE  
SHORT TERM...MCCLURE  
LONG TERM...MCCLURE  
AVIATION...UTTECH  
HYDROLOGY...HAASE  
CLIMATE...MCCLURE  
 
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