623  
FXUS63 KDVN 190538  
AFDDVN  
 
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION  
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE QUAD CITIES IA IL  
1238 AM CDT TUE MAR 19 2024  
   
KEY MESSAGES
 
 
- WARMER TEMPERATURES, DRY AIR AND WINDY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED  
TUESDAY AND WILL PRODUCE ANOTHER ENHANCED FIRE DANGER TO THE AREA.  
 
- PATTERN BECOMES ACTIVE THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK AS PASSING  
SYSTEM'S BRING PRECIPITATION CHANCES TO THE AREA. WE CONTINUE  
TO SEE THE FREEZING LINE NEAR OR IN THE AREA AS WELL AS COLD  
AIR ALOFT SUGGESTING THAT WE COULD HAVE SOME SPRING SNOW  
CHANCES.  
 

 
   
SHORT TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
 
 
ISSUED AT 239 PM CDT MON MAR 18 2024  
 
TONIGHT...LARGE SFC RIDGE SLIDING SOUTHWARD ACRS THE  
CENTRAL/SOUTHERN PLAINS AND MO RVR VALLEY, WHILE ELONGATED VORT  
COMPLEX ALMOST SHEARED OUT AND CHANNELED WAS NOTICED ACRS NORTHERN  
ALBERTA. THIS UPPER VORT ENERGY WILL CLIPPER IT'S WAY DOWN ACRS THE  
GRT LKS ON TUE, SHUNTING AN ASSOCIATED SFC FRONT THROUGH THE AREA BY  
EARLY AFTERNOON. AS THE SFC RIDGE MOVES OFF AND THIS UPPER WAVE  
SYSTEM DIGS DOWN ACRS THE UPPER MS RVR VALLEY, ANTI-CYCLONIC LLVL  
FLOW WILL GO CYCLONIC SOUTHWESTERLY AND REALLY TIGHTENS. THIS WITH  
WEST-NORTHWEST LOW LEVEL JET(LLJ) FLOW INCREASING TO 35-45+ KTS WILL  
MAKE FOR HIGH LOW TO MID LEVEL WIND FIELDS ACRS THE AREA BY LATE  
TONIGHT. ENOUGH PRE-FRONTAL MIXING INDICATED ON BUFKIT SOUNDINGS TO  
DRIVE SFC WIND MOMENTUM WITH GUSTS 35 TO 40 MPH, ESPECIALLY ACRS THE  
SOUTHWEST HALF OF THE DVN CWA. WITH THE CELLULAR AND PATCHY CU  
ERODING FOR A MAINLY CLEAR NIGHT AND ONGOING LOW SFC DPTS IN PLACE,  
TEMPS SHOULD DROP OFF AFTER DARK DOWN IN THE 20S. THEN EXPECT A LATE  
NIGHT NON-DIURNAL TEMP TREND BEFORE DAWN AS THE SOUTHWESTERLY PRE-  
FRONTAL WINDS INCREASE AND START TO GUST.  
 
TUESDAY...LOOKS LIKE A DRY FROPA BY LATE MORNING TO MIDDAY SWEEPING  
ACRS THE LOCAL AREA. A TEMPORARY SFC WIND DIP ALONG THIS PROCESS,  
THEN POST-FRONTAL WINDS WILL VEER TO THE NORTHWEST DURING THE  
AFTERNOON WITH GUSTS UP TO 35 MPH. THIS TUE AFTERNOON PERIOD WITH  
SFC RH'S DROPPING WELL DOWN IN THE 30S AND MILD MIXED UP SFC TEMPS  
IN THE 50S AND EVEN SOME LOWER 60S IN THE SOUTH, WILL BE THE  
ENHANCED FIRE DANGER WINDOW WITH GRASSLAND FIRE DANGER INDEX(GFDI)  
READINGS IN THE VERY HIGH RANGE. WHILE NOT QUITE HIGH ENOUGH FOR RED  
FLAG WARNING HEADLINES, STILL ENOUGH TO COVER AND ALERT THE FIRE  
DANGER IN SEVERAL OTHER PRODUCTS.  
 

 
   
LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/
 
 
ISSUED AT 239 PM CDT MON MAR 18 2024  
 
WEDNESDAY...A COOL DAY WITH MID TO UPPER MS RVR VALLEY SFC RIDGING  
AND INCOMING PRESSURE GRADIENT INDUCING NNW SFC WINDS OF 10-20 MPH  
UNTIL THEY DECREASE BY LATE AFTERNOON. LLVL COOL BAROCLINICITY ALIGNS  
PARALLEL UNDER NW-TO-SE STEERING FLOW ALOFT AND WILL LOOK TO  
TIGHTEN FROM THE NORTHWEST HIGH PLAINS TO THE OH RVR VALLEY. WITH  
THE POTENTIAL FOR A WEAK UPPER WAVE OR TROF TO RIPPLE DOWN ALONG  
THIS THERMAL RIBBON AND THE LOCAL AREA LOOKING TO BE ON THE COOL  
SIDE, WE MAY SOME PERIODS OF FLURRIES OR LIGHT SNOW AT TIMES GETTING  
MILKED OUT OF ANY STRATOCU DECK STREAMING ACRS THE AREA ESPECIALLY  
WED NIGHT. MAY BE INITIALLY VIRGA WITH THE LOW TO MID LEVEL DRY AIR  
IN PLACE, BU THEN A FEW FLAKES MAY BE REALIZED AT THE SFC WITH THE  
ONGOING ELEVATED F-GEN/ISENTROPIC LIFT. WED HIGHS IN THE UPPER 30S  
TO LOW 40S.  
 
THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...LATEST RUN ENSEMBLES AND BLENDS STILL SUGGEST  
A BIT MORE ORGANIZED AND VIGOROUS SHORT WAVE/CLIPPER TYPE SYSTEM TO  
PROPAGATE ALONG THE ONGOING BAROCLINIC STORM TRACK, WITH SOME  
DECENT SFC REFLECTION LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPMENT ROLLING IN NEAR OR  
ACRS THE LOCAL AREA LATE THU NIGHT INTO FRIDAY MORNING. THIS FEATURE  
TO BRING RAIN,RAIN-SNOW MIX, AND PROBABLY ALL WET SNOW LOOKING AT  
THE VERTICAL THERMAL PROFILES BY THU NIGHT. BEFORE HAND,  
SOUTHEASTERLY RETURN FLOW AHEAD OF THE CLIPPER SHOULD BRING ABOUT A  
BIT OF A SFC TEMP WARM UP WITH HIGHS IN THE MID TO UPPER 40S ACRS  
THE SOUTHWEST HALF OF THE DVN CWA. CURRENT INDICATIONS SUGGEST THERE  
WILL BE COOL ENOUGH VERTICAL PROFILES NORTH OF I-80 TRENDING A RAIN-  
SNOW MIX INTO ALL SNOW AS THE NIGHT PROGRESSES INTO, WITH SOME LIGHT  
SNOW ACUMMS POSSIBLE ESPECIALLY ON ELEVATED SURFACES. SEVERAL MODEL  
BLENDS AND ENSEMBLES SHOW A 75TH PERCENTILE OF 1-3 INCHES OF SNOW  
ALONG THE HWY 20 CORRIDOR BY FRIDAY MORNING. THERE MAY ALSO BE A  
WINTRY MIX TRANSITION ZONE OFF TO THE SOUTH OF THE SNOW BEFORE WE  
GET MORE INTO A REGULAR RAIN SUPPORTING AIRMASS SOUTH OF I-80. STILL  
PLENTY OF DETAILS TO BE WORKED OUT. WOULD THINK FRIDAY A MOSTLY  
CLOUDY POST-FRONTAL DAY AND SOME WORRY THE LOADED BLEND OF TEMPS MAY  
BE A BIT OPTIMISTIC ON THE MILD SIDE.  
 
SATURDAY AND SUNDAY...CURRENT ENSEMBLE TRENDS SUGGEST SATURDAY TO BE  
A LULL DAY IN BETWEEN SYSTEMS, WHILE SOME TYPE OF LONGER WAVE  
TROFFINESS AND ROUNDING UPPER JET ENERGY ORGANIZE UPSTREAM ACRS THE  
WESTERN CONUS. AS THERE ARE LONG RANGE SIGNS OF A MILD MOIST  
CONVEYOR STREAMING UP OFF THE WESTERN GULF TO LEE OF THE TROF  
COMPLEX, PRECIP CHANCES MAY REALLY RAMP UP FROM LATE SAT NIGHT OR  
SUNDAY INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. BUT WITH THE SPREAD BETWEEN SOLUTIONS  
AND ENSEMBLES, VERY LOW CONFIDENCE IN QPF AMOUNTS, PLACEMENTS AND  
TYPES AT THIS JUNCTURE IN THE GAME. THE ONE CONSISTENT SIGNAL IS  
THAT THERE MAY BE A SIGNIFICANT STORM SYSTEM TRAVERSING SOMEWHERE  
ACRS THE MID CONUS EARLY NEXT WEEK.  
 

 
   
AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z WED/
 
 
ISSUED AT 1235 AM CDT TUE MAR 19 2024  
 
MAIN ISSUE THIS TAF PERIOD WILL BE FOCUSED ON WINDS. OTHERWISE  
EXPECT VFR TAFS THROUGH THE PERIOD. LATEST 0506Z IR SATELLITE  
HAS SOME MID AND HIGH CLOUDS MOVING ACROSS THE REGION WITH THE  
CLIPPER SYSTEM MOVING ON THROUGH TO THE NORTH AND EAST. AS THE  
CLIPPER SYSTEM MOVES ON THROUGH EXPECT SURFACE WINDS TO INCREASE  
THIS MORNING. IN THIS PERIOD, WINDS ALOFT WILL BE MUCH HIGHER,  
AND LLWS IS FORECAST AT 2000 FT AGL, WHERE WINDS ARE WEST TO  
SOUTHWEST AT 40-50 KTS. THIS LLWS SHOULD CONTINUE THOUGH 14Z  
TUESDAY. EXPECT LLWS TO START TO DECAY AND WINDS AT THE SURFACE  
SHIFT TO WEST TO NORTHWEST. THE LLWS SHOULD SHOULD CONTINUE A  
LITTLE LONGER NEAR KBRL AND ENDING NEAR 17Z. OTHERWISE EXPECT  
SCATTERED MID AND HIGH CLOUDS TO DIMINISH LATER IN TAF PD.  
 

 
   
DVN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
 
 
IA...NONE.  
IL...NONE.  
MO...NONE.  
 

 
 

 
 
SHORT TERM...12  
LONG TERM...12  
AVIATION...HOLICKY  
 
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