285  
FXUS63 KDVN 250447  
AFDDVN  
 
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION  
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE QUAD CITIES IA IL  
1147 PM CDT FRI MAR 24 2017  
   
..06Z AVIATION UPDATE
 
 
   
SYNOPSIS
 
 
ISSUED AT 327 PM CDT FRI MAR 24 2017  
 
18Z SURFACE DATA HAS A FRONTAL BOUNDARY FROM LAKE HURON INTO  
SOUTHWEST WISCONSIN AND THEN INTO EXTREME SOUTHEAST NEBRASKA. DEW  
POINTS AHEAD OF THE FRONT WERE IN THE MID 40S AND 50S WITH MAINLY  
30S BEHIND THE FRONT.  
 

 
   
SHORT TERM
 
(THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY)  
ISSUED AT 327 PM CDT FRI MAR 24 2017  
 
THE FRONT IS MAKING STEADY PROGRESS ACROSS THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON.  
AS OF 3 PM IT WAS ESSENTIALLY STRADDLING THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER AND  
SHOULD BE EAST OF ALL OF THE MISSISSIPPI BY SUNSET.  
 
ANY THUNDER ASSOCIATED WITH THE PRECIPITATION MOVING INTO THE AREA  
WAS DISSIPATING AND THIS TREND IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE UNTIL SUNSET.  
THROUGH SUNSET AREAL COVERAGE OF THE PRECIPITATION WILL CONTINUE TO  
INCREASE ACROSS THE AREA WITH AREAS WEST OF THE MISSISSIPPI HAVING  
THE BEST CHANCE AT SEEING SOME LIGHT RAIN.  
 
TONIGHT, RAIN WILL INCREASE IN AREAL COVERAGE AS MORE MOISTURE  
STREAMS INTO THE AREA AND THE OVERALL FORCING INCREASES. EMBEDDED  
THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP TONIGHT ACROSS THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE  
AREA AND SLOWLY SINK TO THE SOUTH THROUGH SUNRISE.  
 
ON SATURDAY, BREEZY AND RAINY CONDITIONS WILL BE SEEN ACROSS THE  
NORTHWEST HALF OF THE AREA WITH TEMPERATURES 25 TO 30 DEGREES COLDER  
THAN THE DAY BEFORE.  
 
ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST HALF OF THE AREA, THE RAIN WILL CONTINUE WITH  
EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS AND TEMPERATURES 15 TO 20 DEGREES COOLER THAN  
THE DAY BEFORE.  
 
A BACK DOOR COLD FRONT WILL SLIDE SOUTH OF LAKE MICHIGAN AND  
INTERSECT THE OTHER COLD FRONT ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST THIRD OF THE  
AREA SATURDAY AFTERNOON. THE PASSAGE OF THE UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM MAY  
HELP TO INDUCE SOME VERY LOW END SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS SOUTH OF A  
PERU, IL TO KEOKUK, IA LINE DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON HOURS. THE  
PRIMARY THREAT LOOKS TO BE HAIL.  
   
LONG TERM
 
(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)  
ISSUED AT 327 PM CDT FRI MAR 24 2017  
 
ACTIVE WEATHER WITH SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE THE MAIN  
THEMES OF THE LONG TERM FORECAST PERIOD.  
 
INTO SATURDAY EVENING, WILL NEED TO CONTINUE TO MONITOR FOR LOW RISK  
OF SEVERE STORMS. THIS SCENARIO IS DEPENDENT ON A FRONT ADVANCING  
INTO THE FAR SOUTHEAST COUNTIES, AND SUFFICIENT INSOLATION WITH  
PARTIAL LATE AFTERNOON CLEARING. CAMS SUGGEST ISOLATED CELLS PIN-  
WHEELING NORTH/NORTHWEST, MAINLY SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 80, THROUGH  
EARLY EVENING. IF THERE IS ENOUGH INSTABILITY AND A NEARBY BOUNDARY,  
STEEP LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES COMBINED WITH AN H5 COLD POOL WOULD LEAD  
TO POTENTIAL OF ENHANCED STRETCHING OF VERTICAL VORTICITY. SO, THE  
MAIN ISSUE WOULD BE A LOW RISK OF ISOLATED TORNADOES WITH MINI-  
SUPERCELLS, AND POSSIBLY SOME MARGINALLY SEVERE HAIL.  
 
LOOKING AHEAD, SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE SUNDAY AS THE CLOSED LOW  
FINALLY LIFTS OUT. RAINFALL FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY WILL CAUSE  
RENEWED IN BANK RISES ON SOME AREA RIVERS. THE WAPSI NEAR DEWITT IS  
FORECAST TO CREST AROUND 10 FEET LATE SUNDAY NIGHT. IMPACTS OF THE  
MODERATE TO LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN WILL BECOME MORE CLEAR IN THE NEXT 1  
TO 2 DAYS.  
 
FOR MONDAY, ANOTHER LOW WILL SKIRT THE REGION, WITH ADDITIONAL RAIN  
FAVORED ALONG AND SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 80. LATE WEDNESDAY THROUGH  
THURSDAY, THERE IS POTENTIAL FOR ANOTHER CLOSED LOW TO IMPACT THE  
FORECAST AREA WITH WIDESPREAD RAINS.  
 
TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN FAIRLY STABLE, AND SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL  
THROUGH THE LONG TERM, WITH NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES IN AIR MASS.  
EXPECT HIGHS MAINLY IN THE 50S WITH LOWS IN THE UPPER 30S AND 40S.  
 

 
   
AVIATION
 
(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY NIGHT)  
ISSUED AT 1144 PM CDT FRI MAR 24 2017  
 
EXPECT IFR TO MVFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE TAF CYCLE WITH PERIODS  
OF RAIN AND DRIZZLE AND GUSTY NORTHEAST WINDS 10-20+ KTS.  
LOCALIZED POCKETS OF LIFR CIGS WILL BE FOUND OVERNIGHT THROUGH  
MID MORNING SATURDAY. PRECIPITATION WILL TAPER TO MORE SCATTERED  
SHOWERS BY AFTERNOON, WITH A FEW STORMS POSSIBLY NEAR BRL AND MLI  
MID AFTERNOON UNTIL EARLY EVENING.  
 

 
   
DVN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
 
 
IA...NONE.  
IL...NONE.  
MO...NONE.  

 
 

 
 
SYNOPSIS...08  
SHORT TERM...08  
LONG TERM...RP KINNEY  
AVIATION...MCCLURE  
 
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