597  
FXUS63 KDVN 191121  
AFDDVN  
 
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION  
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE QUAD CITIES IA IL  
621 AM CDT THU APR 19 2018  
   
..AVIATION UPDATE
 
 
   
SYNOPSIS
 
 
ISSUED AT 249 AM CDT THU APR 19 2018  
 
STORM SYSTEM THAT BROUGHT THE VARIETY OF WINTRY PRECIP TO THE  
AREA YESTERDAY IS EXITING QUICKLY TOWARD THE MID ATLANTIC  
EARLY THIS MORNING. JUST A FEW FLURRIES LINGER WITHIN THE  
STRATUS DECK, WHICH IS CLEARING FROM THE NORTH AS SUBSIDENCE  
BUILDS IN. OVERALL, HIGH PRESSURE WILL DOMINATE AT LEAST  
THROUGH THE UPCOMING WEEKEND PROVIDING A WELCOMED DRY STRETCH  
WITH MODERATING TEMPERATURES.  
 

 
   
SHORT TERM
 
(TODAY AND TONIGHT)  
ISSUED AT 249 AM CDT THU APR 19 2018  
 
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING ABOUT TRANQUIL AND DRY CONDITIONS, WITH  
CLEARING SKIES. SNOW MELT WILL INITIALLY TEMPER SOME OF THE  
WARMING TODAY ALONG THE HIGHWAY 20 CORRIDOR, WITH READINGS IN  
THE 40S WHILE ELSEWHERE EXPECT HIGHS MOSTLY IN THE LOWER TO MIDDLE  
50S.  
 
TONIGHT, THE CENTER OF THE HIGH WILL BUILD INTO THE UPPER  
MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY. LIGHT WINDS AND MAINLY CLEAR SKIES  
WILL RESULT IN GOOD RADIATIONAL COOLING AND CHILLY LOWS, WITH  
BLEND OF GUIDANCE LOWS MOSTLY RANGING FROM THE MID 20S TO AROUND  
30 DEGREES. THESE TEMPS WILL BE NEAR RECORD LOWS IN A FEW  
LOCATIONS. ALSO, PATCHY FOG WILL BE POSSIBLE OVERNIGHT MOSTLY  
ALONG THE HIGHWAY 20 CORRIDOR WITH THE SNOW MELT MOISTENING THE  
BOUNDARY LAYER AND MODELS DEPICTING A STRONG/SHALLOW LOW LEVEL  
INVERSION.  
   
LONG TERM
 
(FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)  
ISSUED AT 249 AM CDT THU APR 19 2018  
 
A RETURN TO NEAR NORMAL TEMPS AND QUIET WEATHER LOOK TO BE THE MAIN  
WEATHER STORY IN THE LONG TERM PERIOD. IT LOOKS LIKE OUR GREEN UP  
SHOULD COMMENCE WITH THIS FORECAST. LATE IN THE PERIOD, A COLD  
FRONT IS FORECAST TO AFFECT THE AREA. THIS WILL LIKELY BRING ALL  
RAIN TO THE AREA. THERE ARE DIFFERENCES WITH THE TIMING OF THE  
FRONT AND THE RAIN. TEMPERATURES BEHIND THIS FRONT WILL REMAIN  
NEAR CLIMATOLOGICAL NORMS. FROM A SENSIBLE WEATHER STANDPOINT,  
THIS LOOKS TO BECOME THE BEGINNING OF OUR SPRING WEATHER.  
 

 
   
AVIATION
 
(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z FRIDAY MORNING)  
ISSUED AT 619 AM CDT THU APR 19 2018  
 
GREAT FLYING CONDITIONS THROUGH THE NEXT 18 HOURS OR SO, WHEN VFR  
AND LIGHT WINDS ARE EXPECTED. LATE IN THE PERIOD, IFR VSBYS AND  
POSSIBLY LIFR VSBYS COULD FORM AT THE TAF SITES. AT THIS TIME,  
WILL HOLD OFF ON ADDING THIS TO THE TAF.  
 

 
   
HYDROLOGY
 
 
ISSUED AT 249 AM CDT THU APR 19 2018  
 
LATEST FORECASTS FOR THE CEDAR RIVER AT CONESVILLE CONTINUE TO  
HAVE THE RIVER REACHING MINOR FLOOD STAGE, JUST ABOVE 13 FEET, BY  
MID AFTERNOON FRIDAY. THIS IS DRIVEN BY ROUTED FLOW FROM SNOWMELT  
AND QPF. WITH QPF FROM THE DEPARTING SYSTEM LOWER THAN ANTICIPATED,  
CONFIDENCE OF THE RIVER REACHING THIS LEVEL IS LOW AND THUS NO  
WARNING HAS BEEN ISSUED. IF LATER FORECASTS MAINTAIN THIS CREST, A  
FLOOD WATCH MAY BE NEEDED.  
 
OTHER SITES ALONG THE IOWA AND CEDAR RIVERS ARE FORECAST TO RISE,  
BUT REMAIN BELOW FLOOD STAGE OVER THE NEXT WEEK.  
 

 
   
CLIMATE
 
 
ISSUED AT 249 AM CDT THU APR 19 2018  
 
RECORD LOWS FOR APRIL 20...  
 
MOLINE.........25 IN 1983  
CEDAR RAPIDS...27 IN 2013  
DUBUQUE........26 IN 1956  
BURLINGTON.....28 IN 1956  
 

 
   
DVN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
 
 
IA...NONE.  
IL...NONE.  
MO...NONE.  

 
 

 
 
SYNOPSIS...MCCLURE  
SHORT TERM...MCCLURE  
LONG TERM...GIBBS  
AVIATION...GIBBS  
HYDROLOGY...MCCLURE  
CLIMATE...MCCLURE  
 
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