228  
FXUS63 KOAX 241146  
AFDOAX  
 
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION  
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OMAHA/VALLEY NE  
646 AM CDT THU MAY 24 2018  
   
SHORT TERM
 
(TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY)  
ISSUED AT 335 AM CDT THU MAY 24 2018  
 
FORECAST CONCERNS IN THE SHORT TERM WILL BE WHERE THUNDERSTORMS  
WILL FOCUS TODAY AND TONIGHT WITH INCREASINGLY MOIST AND UNSTABLE  
AIRMASS IN PLACE AND WHAT IS THE RISK FOR SEVERE STORMS.  
 
A LOOK AT THE WSR-88D STORM TOTAL RAINFALL FOR TODAY SHOWS SOME OF  
THE BETTER STORMS WERE IN NORTHEAST NEBRASKA, HOWEVER A FEW  
SHOWERS DID POP UP IN THE OMA/LNK/CBF METRO AREAS TOO, BUT THEY  
WERE HIT AND MISS. THE BETTER STORMS WERE TIED TO THE BETTER  
MOISTURE AND VERTICAL MOTION.  
 
THE LATEST WSR-88D MOSAIC SHOWS A CLUSTER OF STORMS IN NORTH  
CENTRAL NEBRASKA INTO SOUTH DAKOTA. THE LATEST RAP/HRRR HAVE THESE  
THUNDERSTORMS LIFTING INTO SOUTHEAST SD AND CONTINUING IN  
NORTHEAST NEBRASKA WITH ADDITIONAL DEVELOPMENT IN OTHER PARTS OF  
EASTERN NEBRASKA, CENTRAL NEBRASKA AND KANSAS BY 12Z. THERE IS NOT  
GOOD AGREEMENT IN THE EXACT PLACEMENT OF THE STORMS THIS MORNING  
AS THE RAP/HRRR/GFS/ ARE FARTHER SOUTH NEAR I80 WHILE THE  
NAM/EC/CANADIAN ARE OVER NORTHEAST NEBRASKA. THE SOUNDING FROM  
00Z SHOWED THAT WE REACHED OUR CONVECTIVE TEMPERATURE WITH SBCAPE  
AROUND 1600J/KG AND 1.13 PWAT. H7 MOISTURE IS INCREASING ALONG  
WITH THE INSTABILITY AXIS MOVING MORE INTO EASTERN NEBRASKA AND  
WESTERN IOWA. SBCAPE OF 2500 J/KG PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES  
AROUND 1.5 INCHES ARE FORECAST FOR TODAY. THERE IS AN OUTFLOW  
BOUNDARY FOR STORMS TO FOCUS IN NORTH CENTRAL AND NORTHEAST  
NEBRASKA THIS MORNING FOR NOW WILL MENTION SCATTERED  
THUNDERSTORMS. WHERE THERE IS LIFT THIS MORNING STORMS WILL BE  
POSSIBLE AND THIS AFTERNOON HEATING TO OUR CONVECTIVE TEMPERATURES  
WILL ALSO CONTRIBUTE TO STORM DEVELOPMENT. THE LOW LEVEL JET IS  
MORE OVER THE LOCAL FORECAST AREA TONIGHT, SO THIS SHOULD INCREASE  
THE COVERAGE AND CHANCES FOR THUNDERSTORMS.  
 
WE ARE IN THE MARGINAL AND SLIGHT RISK FOR SEVERE STORMS AND THIS  
SEEMS REASONABLE GIVEN THE EXPECTED INSTABILITY AROUND 2500J/KG.  
0-3KM AND 0-6KM BULK SHEAR ARE LESS THAN 30KTS, SO THIS MAY LIMIT  
SEVERITY. THERE ARE STRONGER SHEAR VALUES TO THE WEST, SO THIS  
COULD AFFECT STORMS IN SOUTHEAST NEB. WITH MORE WIND. STORM  
MOTIONS ARE LESS THAN 20KTS, SO LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN WILL BE  
MENTIONED.  
 
ONCE THE STORMS MOVE OUT FRIDAY, LOOK FOR TEMPERATURES TO RECOVER  
IN THE UPPER 80S TO LOWER 90S AS DRIER AIR WORKS IN FROM THE WEST.  
SATURDAY IS FORECAST TO BE DRY WITH THE MID LEVEL RIDGE BUILDING  
IN.  
 
ALTHOUGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE ABOVE NORMAL, WE DO NOT HAVE ANY  
RECORD HIGHS FORECAST. SEE CLIMATE SECTION BELOW FOR DETAILS.  
   
LONG TERM
 
(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)  
ISSUED AT 330 AM CDT THU MAY 24 2018  
 
A MID TROPOSPHERIC RIDGE WILL DOMINATE THE WEATHER PATTERN  
SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH MEMORIAL DAY WITH ABOVE NORMAL  
TEMPERATURES CONTINUING. THE CLOSED H5 LOW OVER NEVADA/UTAH  
REMAINS IN ABOUT THE SAME LOCATION. POSSIBLY SUNDAY NIGHT INTO  
MONDAY NIGHT SOME ENERGY DOES MOVE INTO THE WESTERN PLAINS AND  
THUNDERSTORMS THAT DEVELOP IN THE WESTERN PLAINS COULD PUSH INTO  
THE FORECAST AREA. CURRENT FORECASTS OF MOISTURE, INSTABILITY, AND  
SHEAR ARE ON THE HIGH END, SO THESE STORMS COULD BE SEVERE ALONG  
WITH LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN. THE UNSETTLED WEATHER CONTINUES THROUGH  
THE EXTENDED WITH STORM CHANCES TUESDAY WITH THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE  
INCREASING WITH THE BREAKDOWN OF THE RIDGE AND SHORTWAVE  
TROUGH/COLD FRONT TUESDAY NIGHT.  
 
TEMPERATURES SUNDAY AND MONDAY ARE FORECAST TO BE IN THE 90S THEN  
UPPER 80S AND 90S MEMORIAL DAY WITH 80S FOR TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY.  
 

 
   
AVIATION
 
(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z FRIDAY MORNING)  
ISSUED AT 645 AM CDT THU MAY 24 2018  
 
MVFR CEILINGS POSSIBLE THIS MORNING AT KOFK, WITH SOME TSRA ALSO  
IN THE AREA. CUMULUS CLOUDS SHOULD DEVELOP AGAIN TODAY BY LATE  
MORNING AND LAST THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. THESE SHOULD MOSTLY BE  
SCT. CHANCES FOR TSRA ARE NOT VERY CLEAR FOR KLNK AND KOMA TODAY,  
WITH SOME RECENT RUNS OF THE HRRR AND RAP13 DEVELOPING ACTIVITY  
THIS MORNING. CHANCES SHOULD INCREASE FOR TONIGHT. IFR CONDITIONS  
POSSIBLE IN ANY TSRA THE NEXT 24 HRS.  
 

 
   
CLIMATE
 
 
ISSUED AT 330 AM CDT THU MAY 24 2018  
 
TEMPERATURES YESTERDAY WARMED INTO THE UPPER 80S AND LOWER 90S  
AND WITH A WEAK RECORD AT OMA (93 DEGREES), WE CAME WITHIN ONE  
DEGREE OF THAT RECORD WITH A HIGH OF 92. THE RECORD WAS SET BACK  
IN 2012 AND 1939. OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS, THE RECORDS ARE A BIT  
STRONGER.  
 
LOCATION MAY RECORD YEAR  
OMAHA 24TH 99 1939  
25TH 97 1967  
26TH 96 1912  
27TH 94 2012  
28TH 97 1895  
29TH 102 1934  
 
LINCOLN 24TH 100 1967  
25TH 98 1967  
26TH 98 1912  
27TH 95 1966  
28TH 98 1895  
29TH 102 1934  
 
NORFOLK 24TH 102 1967  
25TH 103 1967  
26TH 95 1914, 1912  
27TH 93 2006  
28TH 100 1934  
29TH 106 1934  
 

 
   
OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
 
 
NE...NONE.  
IA...NONE.  

 
 

 
 
SHORT TERM...ZAPOTOCNY  
LONG TERM...ZAPOTOCNY  
AVIATION...MILLER  
CLIMATE...ZAPOTOCNY/MILLER  
 
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