938  
FXUS63 KOAX 211131  
AFDOAX  
 
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION  
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OMAHA/VALLEY NE  
631 AM CDT THU SEP 21 2017  
   
SHORT TERM
 
(TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY)  
ISSUED AT 300 AM CDT THU SEP 21 2017  
 
STALLED SURFACE BOUNDARY WAS LOCATED FROM SOUTHEAST IOWA THROUGH NORTH  
CENTRAL MISSOURI INTO NORTHEAST KANSAS AT 07Z WITH SCATTERED  
CONVECTION IN ITS VICINITY FROM SOUTHEAST IOWA INTO NORTH CENTRAL  
MISSOURI. THIS BOUNDARY LIFTS NORTH THIS MORNING AS A WARM FRONT  
INTO SOUTHEAST NEBRASKA AND SOUTHERN IOWA THEN GRADUALLY WASHES  
OUT BY AFTERNOON WITH THE SUMMER-LIKE CONDITIONS SPREADING ACROSS  
EASTERN NEBRASKA AND SOUTHWEST IOWA DURING THE AFTERNOON ON GUSTY  
SOUTH WINDS. MAIN QUESTION FOR THIS MORNING WILL CONCERN  
POTENTIAL FOR CONVECTION AS THE WARM UNSTABLE AIR SPREADS NORTH.  
SHORT TERM CAM MODELS SHOW MOST OF THE CONVECTION REMAINING SOUTH  
AND EAST OF THE AREA THIS MORNING AND FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW A  
PRETTY GOOD CAP DEVELOPING BY THE AFTERNOON. SINCE SOME CELLS  
ALREADY SHOWING ON RADAR IN FAR SOUTHEAST CORNER WILL PLACE  
SLIGHT POPS ACROSS SOUTHERN PARTS OF THE AREA EARLY THIS MORNING AND  
ADJUST IF NEEDED LATER THIS MORNING.  
 
LATEST MODEL RUNS CONTINUE TREND OF SLOWING THE APPROACH OF THE  
COLD FRONT INTO THE AREA FOR THE WEEKEND. POPS ENTER THE FORECAST  
FOR NORTHWEST PARTS OF THE AREA FRIDAY NIGHT THEN LINGER OVER THAT  
AREA THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT BEFORE FINALLY ENTERING SOUTHEAST  
NEBRASKA AND SOUTHWEST IOWA SUNDAY. THIS WILL KEEP MUCH OF THE  
AREA HOT AND DRY WITH THE UNSEASONABLE HEAT AND HUMIDITY AROUND  
FOR MOST OF THE WEEKEND.  
   
LONG TERM
 
(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)  
ISSUED AT 300 AM CDT THU SEP 21 2017  
 
RELIEF FROM THE HEAT AND HUMIDITY ARRIVES BY MONDAY AS THE DEEP  
UPPER TROUGH OVER THE WESTERN CONUS BEGINS TO OVERCOME THE  
BLOCKING HIGH IN THE EAST BY LIFTING THE NORTHERN SEGMENT OF THE  
TROUGH INTO THE UPPER MIDWEST AND EASTERN CANADA THROUGH  
WEDNESDAY. BEST RAIN CHANCES FOR THE AREA WILL BE SUNDAY NIGHT  
INTO MONDAY NIGHT AS THE SURFACE COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE  
REGION. A PERIOD OF COOLER AND DRIER WEATHER FOLLOWS BEHIND THE  
FRONT FOR TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY AS RIDGING DEVELOPS OVER THE WEST  
COAST AREA.  
 

 
   
AVIATION
 
(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z FRIDAY MORNING)  
ISSUED AT 629 AM CDT THU SEP 21 2017  
 
VFR CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING. AREAS OF VFR  
CIGS NEAR FL050 WILL PERSIST THROUGH 16Z OR SO, THEN MAINLY HIGH  
CLOUDS ARE EXPECTED THEREAFTER. SOUTH WINDS SHOULD KICK UP BEFORE  
18Z, AND AVERAGE 15 TO 25KT THROUGH END OF TAF PERIOD. LOW LEVEL  
WIND SHEAR IS ALSO EXPECTED AT ALL EASTERN NEBRASKA TAF SITES  
AFTER 04Z WHEN LOW LEVEL JET INCREASES TO NEAR 45KT AT FL020 FROM  
THE SOUTH-SOUTHWEST.  
 

 
   
OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
 
 
NE...NONE.  
IA...NONE.  

 
 

 
 
SHORT TERM...FOBERT  
LONG TERM...FOBERT  
AVIATION...DERGAN  
 
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