320  
FXUS63 KOAX 300802  
AFDOAX  
 
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION  
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OMAHA/VALLEY NE  
302 AM CDT TUE MAY 30 2017  
   
SHORT TERM
 
(TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY)  
ISSUED AT 300 AM CDT TUE MAY 30 2017  
 
A LARGE UPPER LEVEL LOW CONTINUES TO SPIN OVER ONTARIO WITH A  
VORT LOBE ROTATING THROUGH OUR NORTHEASTERN CWA THIS MORNING. AT  
THE SURFACE, A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO BUILD EAST AND  
IS FORECAST TO REMAIN OVER THE AREA INTO WEDNESDAY GIVING THE AREA  
CONTINUED DRY CONDITIONS.  
 
BY WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON, STRONG RETURN FLOW SETS UP OVER THE CENTRAL  
AND HIGH PLAINS ALLOWING STRONG MOISTURE RETURN INTO THE REGION. AT  
THE SAME TIME, SEVERAL WEAK MID-LEVEL IMPULSES WILL BE DRIFTING  
SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE AREA IN NORTHWESTERLY FLOW AS MID-LEVEL  
RIDGING BUILDS OVER THE ROCKIES. NOCTURNAL SOUTHWESTERLY LOW LEVEL  
JET WILL NOSE INTO THE AREA OVERNIGHT WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY  
MORNING WHICH SHOULD BE OUR BEST CHANCE AT THUNDERSTORMS. LONGER  
RANGE CAM'S SHOW A COMPLEX DEVELOPING OVER THE HIGH PLAINS LATE  
WED NIGHT AND MOVING EAST ACROSS THE CWA INTO THURSDAY MORNING.  
 
BOTH THE GFS AND NAM SHOW MID 60'S DEWPOINTS OVER THE AREA BY  
THURSDAY AFTERNOON WITH TEMPERATURES INCREASING INTO AT LEAST THE  
LOWER 80'S AS RIDGING EXPANDS OVER THE REGION. LINGERING CLOUD  
COVER FROM OVERNIGHT CONVECTION COULD LIMIT TEMPS A BIT.  
   
LONG TERM
 
(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)  
ISSUED AT 300 AM CDT TUE MAY 30 2017  
 
FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY LOOKS UNSETTLED ALTHOUGH OPERATIONAL  
MODELS STILL HAVE POOR AGREEMENT WITH REGARDS TO UPPER FLOW  
PATTERN LEADING TO INCREASED FORECASTER UNCERTAINTY THROUGH THE  
WEEKEND.  
 

 
   
AVIATION
 
(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY NIGHT)  
ISSUED AT 1138 PM CDT MON MAY 29 2017  
 
VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE PERIOD. SOME MID AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS  
SHOULD INCREASE IN SOUTHEAST NEBRASKA TUESDAY MORNING. LIGHT AND  
VARIABLE WINDS TONIGHT WILL INCREASE TUESDAY 10 TO 20KTS IN THE  
AFTERNOON...THEN DIMINISH AGAIN LATE TUESDAY AFTERNOON.  
 

 
   
OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
 
 
NE...NONE.  
IA...NONE.  

 
 

 
 
SHORT TERM...KERN  
LONG TERM...KERN  
AVIATION...ZAPOTOCNY  
 
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