483  
FXUS63 KOAX 241125  
AFDOAX  
 
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION  
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OMAHA/VALLEY NE  
625 AM CDT MON APR 24 2017  
   
SHORT TERM
 
(TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)  
ISSUED AT 343 AM CDT MON APR 24 2017  
 
POCKET OF WARM TEMPERATURES AT 850MB REMAINS OVER THE REGION THIS  
MORNING WITH STRONG SOUTHERLY LOW-LEVEL JET. WE SHOULD BE ABLE TO  
MIX OUT FAIRLY WELL AFTER SUNRISE WITH HIGHS APPROACHING THE MID  
TO UPPER 70S FOR MOST LOCATIONS. A SURFACE COLD FRONT OVER THE  
DAKOTAS CONTINUES TO SEPARATE A VERY CHILLY AIRMASS TO OUR NORTH  
FROM THE VERY MILD AIRMASS THAT REMAINS OVER US. A WEAK BUT  
PROGRESSIVE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE NORTHEAST  
ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS TODAY WHICH WILL ALLOW THE COLD FRONT  
OVER THE DAKOTAS TO DROP THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA TONIGHT. A FEW  
OF THE CAM'S DO DEVELOP SOME LIGHT QPF ACROSS NORTHEAST NEBRASKA  
AHEAD OF THE BOUNDARY THIS MORNING, BUT POINT FORECAST SOUNDINGS  
INDICATE A VERY DRY ENVIRONMENT AND THUS MAY SEE A SPRINKLE OR  
TWO BUT NO ACCUMULATING PCPN IS ANTICIPATED.  
 
A BETTER CHANCE OF SHOWERS MOVES INTO THE AREA EARLY TUESDAY MORNING  
AND BECOMES LIKELY DURING THE DAY TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT AS  
THE BOUNDARY STALLS AHEAD OF A STRENGTHENING UPPER SHORTWAVE. THIS  
BOUNDARY BEGINS TO BECOME MORE ACTIVE AND PUSH SOUTHEAST INTO  
KANSAS AND MISSOURI WITH OVERRUNNING PATTERN DEVELOPING NORTH OF  
THE FRONT AS THE STRENGTHENING UPPER TROUGH APPROACHES THE CENTRAL  
PLAINS. PARTS OF NORTHEAST NEBRASKA COULD SEE A MIX OF RAIN AND  
SNOW FOR A TIME LATE TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY MORNING BEFORE  
ENDING.  
 
TEMPERATURES WILL BE SHARPLY COLDER BEHIND THE FRONT TUESDAY WITH  
BLUSTERY NORTHWEST WINDS GUSTING OVER 25 MPH. HIGH TEMPERATURES  
ACROSS NORTHEAST NEBRASKA/WEST CENTRAL IOWA WILL TOP OUT IN THE  
UPPER 40S. CLOUDS AND WIND SHOULD INHIBIT ANY FROST FORMATION ON  
WEDNESDAY MORNING. WE WILL BE MENTIONING PATCHY FROST FOR  
THURSDAY MORNING WITH POCKETS OF FREEZING OR SLIGHTLY BELOW  
FREEZING TEMPERATURES ACROSS NORTHEAST NEBRASKA WITH BOTH  
DIMINISHING WINDS AND CLOUDS.  
   
LONG TERM
 
(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)  
ISSUED AT 343 AM CDT MON APR 24 2017  
 
PATTERN IS FORECAST TO REMAIN COOL AND WET THROUGH THE WEEKEND AS A  
SERIES OF UPPER TROUGHS TRACK ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS. MOST  
SIGNIFICANT SYSTEM WILL IMPACT MUCH OF THE REGION OVER THE WEEKEND  
WITH WIDESPREAD SHOWERS. THERE DOES REMAIN THE POTENTIAL FOR SNOW  
ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SYSTEM BUT TRACK AND SPEED OF THE SYSTEM ARE  
LIKELY TO CHANGE OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL MODEL RUNS. MODELS DO AGREE  
ON PAINTING A FAIRLY STOUT STRIPE OF QPF OVER THE AREA.  
 

 
   
AVIATION
 
(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z TUESDAY MORNING)  
ISSUED AT 623 AM CDT MON APR 24 2017  
 
LLWS AT ALL TAF SITES THROUGH ABOUT 14Z, WITH WINDS AT 2000' FROM  
ABOUT 180 DEGREES AT 45 KNOTS. OTHERWISE, VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH  
THE PERIOD, WITH SURFACE WINDS AT 20 TO 32 KNOTS TODAY,  
DIMINISHING BY 21-00Z. A COLD FRONT WILL BE APPROACHING KOFK BY  
23-01Z WITH A WIND SHIFT TO THE NORTH.  
 

 
   
OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
 
 
NE...NONE.  
IA...NONE.  

 
 

 
 
SHORT TERM...KERN  
LONG TERM...KERN  
AVIATION...DEWALD  
 
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