496
FXUS63 KOAX 282027
AFDOAX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OMAHA/VALLEY NE
226 PM CST SAT NOV 28 2009
SHORT TERM
TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY.
DESPITE SERIES OF NRN STREAM WAVES AND ATTENDANT SFC COLD FROPAS
...LACK OF MOISTURE WILL RESULT IN BENIGN WEATHER DURING THE
FCST PD. INITIAL BOUNDARY ASSOCIATED WITH SRN CANADIAN SHORTWAVE
TROF WAS ALREADY DROPPING THRU THE CWA THIS AFTERNOON. MTR SFC
TEMPS UPSTREAM INDICATING CAA RATHER WEAK RELATIVE TO THIS TIME
OF THE YEAR AND ANTICIPATE ABOVE NORM LOWS TONIGHT. BRUNT OF
COLD AIRMASS BEGINS TO FILTER THEREAFTER AND SHOULD BRING LOWS DOWN
TO NEAR NORMAL MONDAY MORNING. INCREASING HEIGHTS ARE PROGGED THEN
BEFORE SECOND FRONT PUSHES INTO CWA LATE TUESDAY AFTN...AND ATTM
HAVE AFTN HIGHS IN THE MID 50S MONDAY/TUESDAY. TUESDAY TEMPS THOUGH
COULD VERY WELL BE COOLER THAN EXPECTED IF SFC BOUNDARY SPEEDS UP
AS ADVERTISED BY THE LATEST NAM.
LONG TERM
TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY.
SPLIT FLOW ALOFT IS EXPECTED TO CONT THRU THE EXTENDED PERIOD WHICH
WL LEAD TO GENERALLY DRY AND SEASONABLY COOL CONDITIONS AS THE
NORTHERN STREAM BECOMES A LITTLE MORE ACTIVE. GENERALLY PREFER A
BLEND OF THE OPERATIONAL EC AND THE EC ENSEMBLES FOR THIS FORECAST
AS THEY SEEM TO FIT THE LARGE-SCALE PATTERN BETTER AND ARE LESS
AMPLIFIED LATE IN THE PERIOD.
SFC CDFNT ASSOCIATED WITH CLOSED NRN STREAM SYSTEM MOVG THRU SRN
CANADA WL HAVE CLEARED THE CWA BY 12Z ON WED MRNG. THIS SHLD LEAD TO
CAA AND CLDS FOR THE DAY ON WED. LITTLE PRECIP CONTS TO BE EXPECTED
WITH THE FNT AS SIG MOISTURE IS LOCKED UP S WITH THE STG SRN STREAM
SYSTEM MOVG ALNG THE GULF COAST. CANADIAN 1030 MB SFC HIGH THEN
SETTLES INTO THE AREA FOR WED NIGHT THROUGH FRI MORNING LEADING TO
NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURES FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR WITH LOWS IN THE
LOWER 20S OR SLIGHTLY COOLER AND HIGHS IN THE UPPER 30S TO NEAR 40.
OPERATIONAL MEX AND HPC NUMBERS ARE A BIT COOLER THAN CURRENT
FORECAST BUT WITH A LACK OF SNOW COVER FM HERE TO CANADA...NORMAL
HIGHS ARE MORE LIKE IN THE LOWER 40S /INSTEAD OF UPPER 30S/ AND THUS
DID NOT WANT TO GO AS COOL AS HPC/MEX ATTM. WAA RETURNS FOR NEXT FRI
INTO SAT AS ANOTHER SHRTWV TRIES TO TOP WRN US RIDGE AND ALLOWS FOR
LO PRES TO DEVELOP OVER THE WRN HI PLAINS. AGAIN...THRU SAT LOOKS
DRY WITH TMPS AROUND NORMAL.
AVIATION
TAF SITES KOFK/KOMA/KLNK
27/18Z TAFS
A COLD FRONT IS MOVING THROUGH THE AREA TODAY...BRINGING A WIND
SHIFT TO NWLY AND AN INCREASE IN WIND SPEEDS/GUSTS WELL BEHIND THE
FRONT. WIND SPEEDS SHOULD REACH 14-18KT AT ALL SITES BETWEEN THIS
AFTN AND LATE THIS EVNG...CONTINUING INTO MRNG. CIGS SHOULD MAINLY
REMAIN MVFR...THOUGH A COUPLE OF HOURS OF MVFR ARE POSSIBLE
OVERNIGHT. HAVE HINTED AT POTENTIAL WITH SCT MENTION FOR NOW.
OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NE...NONE.
IA...NONE.
DEE/JB/BB
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