148
FXUS63 KOAX 162030
AFDOAX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OMAHA/VALLEY NE
330 PM CDT WED MAY 16 2012
DISCUSSION
A SERIES OF FRONTS WILL BE MOVING THROUGH THE REGION DURING
THE FORECAST PERIOD WITH TIMING AND EXTENT OF PRECIPTATION
THE PRIMARY FORECAST CONCERN.
INCREASING SOUTH FLOW WILL BE DEVELOPING OVER THE PLAINS REGION
TONIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE SHIFTS EAST AND LOW PRESSURE MOVES
INTO THE WESTERN HIGH PLAINS. LOW PRESSURE WILL REMAIN TO THE
WEST OF THE AREA ON THURSDAY AND FRIDAY WITH GUSTY SOUTH WINDS
CONTINUING IN ADVANCE OF THE DEVELOPING FRONTAL SYSTEM. LOW LEVELS
WILL BE FAIRLY DRY DURING THIS TIME BUT SOME ELEVATED CONVECTION
DURING THE NIGHT IS POSSIBLE MAINLY NORTH OF THE AREA WHERE BETTER
MID LEVEL MOISTURE WILL BE AVAIABLE. RAIN CHANCES FOR THE AREA
INCREASE FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY NIGHT AS THE SURFACE FRONT
APPROACHES AND MOVES THROUGH THE AREA WITH SUPPORT FROM A MID
LEVEL WAVE.
COOLER TEMPERATURES FOLLOW BEHIND THE FRONT IN THE EARLY PART OF
THE EXTENDED PERIOD SUNDAY INTO MONDAY WITH WARMER TEMPERATURES
AFTER THAT AS SHORT WAVE RIDGING DEVELOPS AHEAD OF THE NEXT WAVE.
12Z MODELS SHOW LESS AGREEMENT DURING THIS TIME WITH LOW
CONFIDENCE IN DEVELOPMENT AND TIMING OF NEXT SURFACE FRONT LATE
IN THE EXTENDED PERIOD.
AVIATION
18Z TAFS FOR KOMA...KLNK...AND KOFK.
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE TAF CYCLE. WINDS WILL
INCREASE SLOWLY OUT OF THE SOUTHEAST THROUGH TONIGHT INTO THE
10-15KT RANGE...THEN WILL INCREASE OUT OF THE SOUTH TO AROUND
15-20KT AND BECOME GUSTY BY MID-MORNING TOMORROW. MAINTAINED LOW-
LEVEL WIND SHEAR MENTION AT KOFK FROM PREVIOUS FORECAST AS LOW-
LEVEL JET INCREASES LATE TONIGHT WHILE SURFACE WINDS LAG.
OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NE...NONE.
IA...NONE.
FOBERT/MAYES
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