624  
FXUS63 KOAX 172120  
AFDOAX  
 
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION  
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OMAHA/VALLEY NE  
320 PM CST WED JAN 17 2018  
   
SHORT TERM
 
(TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)  
ISSUED AT 253 PM CST WED JAN 17 2018  
 
A SIGNIFICANT WARNING TREND WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE SHORT TERM  
WITH BENIGN WEATHER AND ZONAL FLOW DEVELOPING ALOFT. QUIT DRY  
WEATHER THE NEXT THREE DAYS, WITH HIGHS IN THE MID 30S TO UPPER  
40S ON THURSDAY, THEN INTO THE UPPER 40S TO MID 50S FOR FRIDAY. A  
WEAK COOL FRONT DOES EDGE INTO THE AREA FRIDAY NIGHT, BUT MOISTURE  
IS QUITE LIMITED, ALTHOUGH THE NAM HINTS AT SOME SPOTTY PRECIP,  
BUT OTHER MODELS REMAIN DRY. SATURDAY WILL BE SLIGHTLY COOLER THAN  
FRIDAY, BUT STILL PRETTY DECENT WITH HIGHS IN THE LOWER TO MID 40S.  
   
LONG TERM
 
(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)  
ISSUED AT 253 PM CST WED JAN 17 2018  
   
..POTENTIAL WINTER STORM TO AFFECT THE AREA SUNDAY INTO MONDAY
 
 
MAIN FOCUS REMAINS A POTENTIAL WINTER STORM THAT SHOULD AFFECT  
THE REGION SUNDAY INTO MONDAY. MODELS ARE STILL FOCUSING ON THE  
LOW THAT IS CURRENTLY WEST OF THE BRITISH COLUMBIA COAST THAT  
EVENTUALLY SENDS A STRONG TROUGH INTO THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST, WHICH  
THEN EVENTUALLY CLOSES OFF ACROSS THE CENTRAL ROCKIES AND ONTO THE  
PLAINS LATE IN THE WEEKEND. SEEING GOOD MODEL CONTINUITY OVERALL  
BETWEEN THE GFS AND ECWMF INITIALLY, BUT THOSE DIFFERENCE BECOME  
MAGNIFIED THROUGH MONDAY AS THE LOW EJECTS THROUGH THE MID  
MISSOURI VALLEY REGION.  
 
AHEAD OF THE LOW, LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL BE DRAWN NORTHWARD,  
WITH RAIN OR SNOW SHOWERS SUNDAY, BUT THEN CHANGING TO SNOW  
BEHIND THE SYSTEM, WHICH LINGERS THROUGH EARLY MONDAY. THE  
EVENTUAL TRACK OF THE STORM SYSTEM WILL HAVE A BIG IMPACT ON SNOW  
AMOUNTS, AND NOT SURPRISINGLY, WE ARE STILL SEEING A VERY WIDE  
SPREAD AMONG GEFS MEMBERS. OPERATIONAL GFS WOULD SUPPORT A SWATH  
OF 6-10" OF SNOW FROM CENTRAL THROUGH NORTHEAST NE INTO NORTHWEST  
IA AND MN. ECMWF WOULD ALSO SUPPORT A BAND OF 6-10", BUT DISPLACED  
EASTWARD BY 100 MILES IN SOME INSTANCES. THE 21 GEFS MEMBERS ARE  
QUITE VARIABLE NARROWING DOWN THE SNOW BAND. SO WHILE CONFIDENCE  
MAY BE INCREASING OF A HEAVY SNOW BAND SOMEWHERE WITHIN OUR  
FORECAST AREA SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY, IT'S STILL 4 1/2 DAYS  
AWAY AND A LOT OF UNCERTAINTY REMAINS. IT ALSO REMAINS WELL OUTSIDE  
OUR SNOW FORECASTING WINDOW OF 84 HOURS.  
 
IT DOES NOT LOOK LIKE ANOTHER ARCTIC SURGE WILL ACCOMPANY THIS  
STORM. HOWEVER, CAN'T SAY THE SAME FOR THE WIND, BLOWING SNOW  
LOOKS INCREASING LIKELY AS NORTHWEST WINDS INCREASE TO 20 TO 30  
MPH AS THE COLDER AIR MOVES IN. THE BULK OF THE MEASURABLE  
PRECIPITATION SHOULD BE OVER BY 6 AM MONDAY, BUT THERE MAY STILL  
BE A FEW LINGERING FLURRIES AND AREAS OF BLOWING SNOW MONDAY,  
WHILE WE DIG OUT FROM WHATEVER OCCURS SUNDAY NIGHT.  
 

 
   
AVIATION
 
(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY AFTERNOON)  
ISSUED AT 1121 AM CST WED JAN 17 2018  
 
VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE PERIOD. SOUTHWEST WINDS AROUND 12  
KNOTS THROUGH 00Z, BUT LOWER BEYOND THEN.  
 

 
   
OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
 
 
NE...NONE.  
IA...NONE.  

 
 

 
 
SHORT TERM...DEWALD  
LONG TERM...DEWALD  
AVIATION...DEWALD  
 
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