018
FXUS63 KOAX 090906
AFDOAX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OMAHA/VALLEY NE
306 AM CST MON NOV 9 2009
DISCUSSION
COLD FRONT HAS MOVED SOUTH INTO NORTHEAST KANSAS AND SOUTHEAST
IOWA EARLY THIS MORNING...WITH STILL A FAIR AMOUNT OF CLOUDINESS
NORTH OF THE FRONT...ALBEIT THIN. NEXT IMPULSE NOTED ON WATER
VAPOR IMAGERY MOVING THROUGH THE CENTRAL ROCKIES SHOULD ARRIVE
ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS LATER TODAY...MOSTLY LIKELY THIS
AFTERNOON...WHICH SHOULD HELP TO GENERATE SOME SHOWERS ALONG THE
FRONT...AND POSSIBLY INTO SOUTHEAST NEBRASKA AND EXTREME SOUTHWEST
IOWA. WHILE THERE COULD BE A SPRINKLE NEAR FNB THIS MORNING...FEEL
BEST CHANCE FOR MEASURABLE RAIN IN THAT AREA WILL THIS AFTERNOON
AND EVENING. ANOTHER AREA OF CONCERN WILL BE THE MID LEVEL
MOISTURE NOTED ACROSS NORTHEAST COLORADO AND WESTERN NEBRASKA.
THIS IS PROGGED TO MOVE INTO NORTHEAST NEBRASKA THIS AFTERNOON...BUT
BELIEVE THERE WILL BE TOO MUCH DRY AIR AT THE LOW LEVELS TO ALLOW
ANY PRECIP THROUGH AND THINK THE GFS IS OVERDONE REGARDING ITS QPF
FOR THAT AREA.
TUESDAY WILL BE A TRANSITION DAY AS HIGH PRESSURE TO OUR NORTH
SLIDES TO THE EAST. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR LIGHT EASTERLY WINDS
THROUGH THE DAY WITH PLENTY OF SUNSHINE. HOWEVER...AS FLOW BECOMES
MORE SOUTHERLY...ESPECIALLY JUST OFF THE SURFACE...THIS SHOULD TAP
INTO SOME LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AND ADVECT THAT NORTHWARD. THE AXIS
OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE IS MOSTLY DIRECTED TOWARD CENTRAL NEBRASKA
LATE TUESDAY NIGHT...BUT ISENTROPIC DATA FROM THE 290K SURFACE
SUGGESTS THAT CLOUDS AND PERHAPS EVEN SOME SPOTTY DRIZZLE COULD
DEVELOP ALONG/WEST OF HIGHWAY 77 IN EASTERN NEBRASKA...WHICH COULD
LINGER THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING AS A SUBTLE WAVE MOVES THROUGH
THE AREA. THIS IS DEPICTED BY ALL OF THE MODELS NOW...EXCEPT FOR
THE SREF. AT THIS POINT...WILL OPT FOR A TRACE EVENT AND NOT
MENTION POPS...BUT THAT WILL NEED TO BE MONITORED OVER THE NEXT
COUPLE OF MODEL CYCLES. RESULTANT CLOUD COVER COULD HAVE AN EFFECT
ON TEMPERATURES ON WEDNESDAY TOO.
BEYOND THEN...WINDY CONDITIONS SET UP FOR THURSDAY AHEAD OF THE
NEXT FRONTAL BOUNDARY...WHICH PROBABLY WON'T MAKE IT INTO THE AREA
UNTIL FRIDAY. FEEL THAT THE GFS IS OVERDONE WITH ITS QPF AGAIN
ACROSS THE AREA ON THURSDAY...AND WILL KEEP THE FORECAST DRY
ATTM...BUT WILL MAINTAIN A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS...AT LEAST
ACROSS EASTERN NEBRASKA...ON FRIDAY AS THE FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE
AREA. DESPITE THE FRONT REMAINING TO THE SOUTH FRIDAY
NIGHT/THROUGH SATURDAY...UPPER LEVEL TROUGH MOVING THROUGH THE
CENTRAL PLAINS SHOULD PROVIDE ENOUGH SUPPORT FOR A CONTINUED
CHANCE OF RAIN.
AVIATION
TAF SITES KOFK/KOMA/KLNK
09/06Z TAFS
THE SFC CDFNT AROUND KFNB WILL CONTINUE TO PUSH SOUTH WITH SFC HIGH
PRESSURE THE MAIN WEATHER FEATURE AFFECTING THE TAF SITES. SFC
WINDS FM THE NW GENERALLY 10KTS OR LESS TO SWING AROUND TO THE
NORTHEAST AFTER 12Z. VWPS AND PROFILERS SHOWING WINDS AROUND H9 FROM
THE NORTH AT 30 TO 40KTS AND SHOULD CONTINUE AND SHIFT NORTHEAST
THROUGH MID MORNING AND WEAKEN. LOOK FOR SOME VFR CIGS GENERALLY
ABOVE 12K FT.
OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NE...NONE.
IA...NONE.
DEWALD/ZAPOTOCNY
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