357  
FXUS63 KOAX 240519  
AFDOAX  
 
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION  
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OMAHA/VALLEY NE  
1219 AM CDT FRI MAR 24 2017  
   
SHORT TERM
 
(TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)  
ISSUED AT 320 PM CDT THU MAR 23 2017  
 
FORECAST CONCERNS IN THE SHORT TERM WILL BE SHOWER AND  
THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH SATURDAY WITH THE SLOW MOVING STORM SYSTEM.  
WHERE THE BEST POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE WEATHER IS AND WHAT KIND OF  
RAINFALL AMOUNTS MAY OCCUR.  
 
THE KTOP/KOAX 12Z SOUNDINGS FROM THIS MORNING SHOWED MOIST  
CONDITIONS THROUGH H7 WITH AROUND 1 INCH OF PWAT AND STEEP 3-6KM  
LAPSE RATES AROUND 8 DEG C/KM. H9 WINDS INCREASED TO AROUND 45KTS  
DURING THE MORNING AND A POCKET OF STRONG 0-3KM BULK SHEAR ACROSS  
NORTHEAST NE BETWEEN 15Z AND 18Z...AND THE LIFT AHEAD OF THE  
ELEVATED WARM FRONT LIKELY HELPED SPARK THE TSRA WITH HAIL THAT  
QUICKLY MOVED INTO SD. THIS INITIAL WAVE OF H7 WARM AIR ADVECTION  
CONTINUES TO MOVE INTO MN AND IA THIS AFTERNOON.  
 
THIS AFTERNOON...THE LATEST SUBJECTIVE SURFACE ANALYSIS HAS THE  
WARM FRONT LIFTING ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA WITH SHOWERS AND  
THUNDERSTORMS AHEAD OF IT. THERE HAS BEEN A LOT OF LIGHTNING WITH  
THE STORMS AND EVEN SOME GRASS FIRES, HOWEVER NOT A LOT OF  
PRECIPITATION. TEMPERATURES SOUTH OF THE WARM FRONT HAVE WARMED  
INTO THE MID AND UPPER 60S WITH DEWPOINTS IN THE 50S.  
 
THE LARGE MID-TROPOSPHERIC TROUGH OVER NV/CA IS FORECAST TO SHIFT  
TOWARD THE FOUR-CORNERS AREA THEN DEEPEN OVER CO/WRN KS OVERNIGHT  
INTO A CLOSED LOW...SLOWLY TRACKING ACROSS KANSAS. BROAD SURFACE  
LOW PRESSURE OVER EASTERN COLORADO FURTHER DEEPENS TONIGHT WITH A  
COLD FRONT EXTENDING INTO CENTRAL AND NORTHEAST NEBRASKA.  
 
THE DAY1 SEVERE WEATHER OUTLOOK TORNADO PROBABILITIES EXTEND FROM  
CENTRAL NEBRASKA INTO WESTERN KANSAS SOUTH THROUGH THE OK PANHANDLE  
AND THE TX PANHANDLE WITH AN AREA OF HAIL/WIND OUTLOOK IN THIS  
SIMILAR AREA WHERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE MORE FOCUSED. BROAD UPPER  
LEVEL DIVERGENCE AND WARM AIR ADVECTION ALONG WITH PWATS AROUND AN  
INCH TO 1.25" ARE PROGGED.  
 
THE COMBINATION OF THE THE APPROACH OF THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH/BROAD  
UPPER LEVEL DIVERGENCE/WAA/MID-LEVEL FRONTOGENESIS HAVE ISOLATED TO  
SCATTERED STORMS THIS AFTERNOON...BECOMING MORE FOCUSED FROM WESTERN  
KANSAS INTO WESTERN AND CENTRAL NEBRASKA INTO NORTHEAST NEBRASKA  
THIS EVENING AND TONIGHT WHERE CAPES OF 1000-2500 J/KG WILL BE MORE  
PREVALENT AND 0-6KM BULK SHEAR IS FORECAST TO EXCEED 60KTS. THE  
RAP/HRRR DID NOT HAVE A GOOD HANDLE ON THE MORNING CONVECTION AND  
STARTED TO PICK UP ON THE AFTERNOON CONVECTION WITH THE 16Z HRRR  
THE GENERAL TREND IS TO INCREASE PRECIPITATION COVERAGE FROM  
CENTRAL NEBRASKA INTO NORTHEAST NEBRASKA THIS EVENING AND  
OVERNIGHT. WILL MAINTAIN HIGHEST POPS IN NORTHEAST NEBRASKA  
THROUGH TONIGHT AND FRIDAY MORNING. ANOTHER AREA OF SHOWERS AND  
THUNDERSTORMS AHEAD OF THE DRY SLOT DEVELOPS FROM EASTERN  
OKLAHOMA INTO EASTERN KANSAS AND WESTERN MISSOURI AND SHOULD MAKE  
IT INTO SOUTHERN IOWA FRIDAY. IN BETWEEN, SCATTERED  
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE. THE DAY2 SPC OUTLOOK  
BRINGS THE MARGINAL RISK TOWARD FNB...HOWEVER KEEPS THE SLIGHT  
RISK GENERALLY FROM SOUTHEAST KS INTO SOUTHWEST MO. RAIN/SHOWERS  
WILL CONTINUE ON THE NORTHWEST SIDE OF THE STORM SYSTEM ACROSS THE  
OUTLOOK AREA FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY WITH THE SLOW-MOVING  
SYSTEM.  
 
RELATED TO THE RAINFALL EXPECTED...TRIMMED BACK AMOUNTS SOMEWHAT  
WITH GENERAL AMOUNTS OF A TENTH TO 0.50 INCH. STILL HAVE HIGHER  
AMOUNTS FROM .75 TO 1.75 FOR PARTS OF NORTHEAST NEBRASKA.  
   
LONG TERM
 
(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)  
ISSUED AT 320 PM CDT THU MAR 23 2017  
 
UNSETTLED WEATHER CONTINUES WITH MORE SHOWERS SUNDAY  
NIGHT...TUESDAY NIGHT-THURSDAY. HIGHS MOSTLY IN THE 50S AND 60S.  
 

 
   
AVIATION
 
(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY NIGHT)  
ISSUED AT 1213 AM CDT FRI MAR 24 2017  
 
THE COLD FRONT IS THROUGH KOFK AND MVFR AND IFR CEILINGS WILL  
START TO IMPACT THE TERMINAL BY 10Z THIS MORNING, AND SHOULD  
CONTINUE THROUGH THE END OF THE PERIOD. THE COLD FRONT WILL MOVE  
THROUGH KOMA/KLNK BY 18-20Z WITH THE MVFR/IFR CIGS TO FOLLOW BY  
LATE AFTERNOON. WE WILL ALSO SEE PERIOD OF RAIN OVERNIGHT AND  
THROUGH THE DAY AT KOFK. ALTHOUGH ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE  
OVERNIGHT TONIGHT AT KOMA/KLNK, MORE STEADY RAINFALL WILL NOT  
DEVELOP IN THESE AREA UNTIL LATE FRIDAY AFTERNOON INTO FRIDAY  
EVENING. ALTHOUGH SOME THUNDER IS POSSIBLE FRIDAY AFTERNOON AT  
KOMA/KLNK, IT APPEARS THAT THE CHANCES ARE TO LOW TO CURRENTLY  
INCLUDE IN THE TAFS.  
 

 
   
OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
 
 
NE...NONE.  
IA...NONE.  
 

 
 

 
 
SHORT TERM...ZAPOTOCNY  
LONG TERM...ZAPOTOCNY  
AVIATION...BOUSTEAD  
 
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.

The Nexlab NE Page
The Nexlab IA Page Main Text Page