401
FXUS65 KSLC 232146
AFDSLC
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SALT LAKE CITY UT
246 PM MST MON NOV 23 2009
SYNOPSIS
HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT WILL STRENGTHEN ACROSS THE REGION
THROUGH MID-WEEK. A PACIFIC STORM SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO SPREAD
INTO THE REGION LATE IN THE WEEK INTO THE UPCOMING WEEKEND.
DISCUSSION
STORM SYSTEM CENTERED OVER COLORADO IS RAPIDLY
MOVING OUT OF THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON...ALLOWING HIGH PRESSURE TO
BUILD IN. THE COOL AIRMASS BEHIND YESTERDAYS COLD FRONT IS KEEPING
MAXES AROUND 5F BELOW SEASONAL NORMS DESPITE THE CLEARING SKIES.
THE RIDGE IS EXPECTED TO BE WELL ESTABLISHED OVER THE REGION
TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...ALLOWING FOR LIGHT WINDS AND FAIRLY
RAPID WARMING ALOFT. HOWEVER...STRONG VALLEY INVERSIONS ARE
EXPECTED TO DEVELOP...LIMITING WARMING IN THOSE AREAS...ESPECIALLY
OVER NORTHERN UTAH WHERE THERE IS SNOW ON THE GROUND. HAVE LOWERED
NORTHERN VALLEY TEMPERATURES OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS TO ACCOUNT FOR THIS.
MODELS AGREE THAT THE RIDGE WILL SHIFT EAST BEGINNING THURSDAY
MORNING AHEAD OF A COUPLE OF APPROACHING STORM SYSTEMS. DEVELOPING
SOUTHWEST FLOW MAY BE STRONG ENOUGH TO MIX OUT BENCH LOCATIONS ON
THURSDAY...BUT IT LIKELY WILL NOT BE UNTIL FRIDAY BEFORE THE
VALLEYS COMPLETELY MIX OUT.
THE FIRST SYSTEM IS CURRENTLY PROGGED TO MOVE THROUGH LATE FRIDAY
AND EARLY SATURDAY. ALL MODELS INDICATE THIS WILL BE A GRAZING
SYSTEM...BUT EC AND GEM ARE SIGNIFICANTLY WEAKER WITH THE SYSTEM
THAN THE GFS. HAVE LEANED TOWARD THE FORMER SOLUTION FOR NOW. THE
MODELS APPEAR TO BE IN MUCH BETTER AGREEMENT WITH THE SECOND WAVE
THAN THE FIRST...BRINGING IT THROUGH THE ENTIRE STATE LATE
SATURDAY THROUGH EARLY SUNDAY. ALL INDICATE THE WAVE WILL BE WELL
ORGANIZED...BUT THE GFS BRINGS COLDER AIR WITH THE SYSTEM THAN
THE OTHERS. ALL MODELS EXCEPT THE GEM HAVE BEEN SHOWING DECENT
RUN-TO-RUN CONSISTENCY...AND WITH THAT AND THE GOOD AGREEMENT HAVE
GONE AHEAD AND RAISED POPS LATE SATURDAY FOR THE SECOND SYSTEM.
AVIATION
VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE VALID TAF
PERIOD. SHOULD SEE A SWITCH TO THE TYPICAL SOUTHEAST DRAINAGE FLOW
AROUND 03Z. WITH ONLY VERY LIGHT NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT...THERE IS A
40 PERCENT CHANCE THAT NORTHWEST FLOW MAY NOT DEVELOP ON TUESDAY.
SLC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
UT...NONE.
WY...NONE.
PUBLIC...TRAPHAGAN
AVIATION...BARJENBRUCH
FOR MORE INFORMATION FROM NOAA/S NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE VISIT...
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/SALTLAKECITY (ALL LOWER CASE)
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