363
FXUS65 KSLC 242147
AFDSLC
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SALT LAKE CITY UT
347 PM MDT FRI MAY 24 2013
SYNOPSIS
SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL BRING A WARM TREND THROUGH THE
MEMORIAL DAY WEEKEND. AN UNSETTLED PATTERN WILL DEVELOP ACROSS
THE REGION NEXT WEEK.
DISCUSSION
A FEW CONVECTIVE CLOUDS HAVE DEVELOPED ACROSS THE
WASATCH PLATEAU AND CENTRAL UTAH THIS AFTERNOON.
OTHERWISE...TEMPERATURES ARE AVERAGING AROUND 2-4C ABOVE
YESTERDAYS VALUES ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE CWA. EXPECT MOSTLY CLEAR
CONDITIONS TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE EVENING AND INTO THE OVERNIGHT
HOURS.
DRY SOUTHWEST FLOW IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH
THE WEEKEND. TEMPERATURES OVER THE MEMORIAL DAY WEEKEND WILL AVERAGE
AROUND 10 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL. HIGH BASED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO BEGIN TO DEVELOP ACROSS NORTHERN
UTAH SUNDAY...AND SPREAD TO CENTRAL UTAH MONDAY. THE MAIN THREAT
FROM THESE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE BRIEF GUSTY WINDS.
ANYONE BOATING OR TRAVELING WITH HIGH PROFILE VEHICLES AND
TRAILERS SHOULD BE PREPARED FOR ERRATIC AND GUSTY WINDS ACROSS
THESE AREAS.
ATTENTION THEN TURNS TO AN UNSETTLED PATTERN THAT IS FORECAST TO
DEVELOP EARLY NEXT WEEK AND REMAIN IN PLACE THROUGH MUCH OF THE
REMAINDER OF THE WEEK. GLOBAL MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW MARKED
DIFFERENCES ON THE EXACT EVOLUTION OF THE PATTERN...BUT THE MAIN
MESSAGE IS A SERIES OF DISTURBANCES WILL LIKELY CROSS THE REGION
BRINGING COOLER TEMPERATURES AND A HIGHER CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION.
DECIDED TO ERR A BIT TOWARD THE 12Z EC SOLUTION...UPPING POPS AND
LOWERING TEMPS TO NEAR TO SLIGHTLY BELOW CLIMO LEVELS.
INTERESTINGLY...SEVERAL MEMBERS OF THE 12Z GFS ENSEMBLE ACTUALLY
RESEMBLE THE 12Z EC. GIVEN THE MODEL UNCERTAINTY DURING THIS
TIME PERIOD...CONFIDENCE IN THE TIMING OF ANY PARTICULAR FEATURE
IS QUITE LOW AT THIS TIME.
AVIATION
VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE AT THE KSLC TERMINAL
THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD. WINDS WILL REMAIN FROM THE NORTH
THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. THE SWITCH TO SOUTHEAST DRAINAGE WINDS IS
EXPECTED BETWEEN 0200-0400 UTC. BREEZY SOUTH WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO
DEVELOP AFTER 1500 UTC ON SATURDAY MORNING.
FIRE WEATHER
A DRY FRONT IS DISSIPATING ACROSS THE AREA THIS
AFTERNOON AND BREEZY SOUTH WINDS HAVE DEVELOPED ACROSS PORTIONS OF
THE SOUTH AND EAST. A DRY SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL PREVAIL ACROSS THE
DISTRICT SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY WITH GUSTY SOUTHWEST WINDS IN MOST
LOCATIONS EACH AFTERNOON. HUMIDITY WILL REMAIN VERY LOW IN THE
AFTERNOON WITH POOR OVERNIGHT RECOVERIES. THESE WEATHER ELEMENTS
WOULD CREATE LOCAL CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS IF FUELS WERE
CRITICAL BUT THEY ARE NOT AT THIS TIME AND THUS HAVE NOT ISSUED ANY
WARNINGS.
A SERIES OF PACIFIC SYSTEMS WILL START TO AFFECT THE AREA LATE
SUNDAY WITH A THREAT OF ISOLATED DRY THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE NORTH
AND A BETTER CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS NORTH AND CENTRAL
PORTIONS MONDAY ALONG WITH HIGHER HUMIDITY. THE NEXT SYSTEM WILL
BRING A GREATER CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TUESDAY THROUGH
WEDNESDAY WITH AN INCREASING CHANCE OF WETTING RAIN.
SLC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
UT...NONE.
WY...NONE.
KRUSE/WILENSKY/GRAHAM
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HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/SALTLAKECITY (ALL LOWER CASE)
FOR FREQUENTLY ASKED QUESTIONS ABOUT THE AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
VISIT...
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/SALTLAKECITY/GENERAL/AFD_FAQS.PHP (ALL LOWER CASE)
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