763  
FXUS65 KSLC 290953  
AFDSLC  
 
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION  
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SALT LAKE CITY UT  
353 AM MDT SAT JUL 29 2017  
   
SYNOPSIS
 
MOISTURE, PRIMARILY ACROSS SOUTHERN UTAH, WILL FUEL  
SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY THIS WEEKEND. A GRADUAL DRYING  
TREND WILL TAKE HOLD EARLY IN THE UPCOMING WEEK.  
 

 
   
SHORT TERM (UNTIL 06Z WEDNESDAY)
 
THE UPPER RIDGE CURRENTLY  
CENTERED ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS/SOUTHERN ROCKIES WILL EXPAND  
NORTH AND WEST ACROSS MUCH OF THE WESTERN CONUS THIS WEEKEND. THIS  
MAIN CENTER OF THE RIDGE WILL EVENTUALLY SETTLE TO THE WEST OF  
UTAH LATE IN THE WEEKEND, RESULTING IN AN INCREASINGLY DRY  
NORTHWEST FLOW ACROSS THE REGION EARLY IN THE WEEK.  
 
FOR THE WEEKEND AMPLE MOISTURE REMAINS IN PLACE TO SUPPORT  
CONVECTION BOTH TODAY AND AGAIN ON SUNDAY. THE GREATEST PWAT  
VALUES WILL REMAIN ACROSS FAR SOUTHERN AND EASTERN UTAH THIS  
WEEKEND. MUCH OF THIS ACTIVITY WILL DEPEND ON DAYTIME HEATING TO  
FIRE OFF, WITH A FEW SHOWERS LINGERING OVERNIGHT ACROSS FAR  
SOUTHEAST UTAH IN THE AREA OF BEST MOISTURE.  
 
A SECOND AREA OF CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH A WEAKENING TROUGH  
ENTERING CALIFORNIA WILL SUPPORT CONVECTION MAINLY TO THE WEST OF  
UTAH TODAY. SOME OF THIS ACTIVITY COULD SPILL INTO WESTERN UTAH  
TODAY, THOUGH WITH THE UPPER RIDGE EXPANDING NORTH AND WEST THE  
EASTWARD PROGRESSION OF THIS LOOSELY ORGANIZED CONVECTION WILL  
LIKELY NOT CONTINUE PAST EARLY THIS AFTERNOON.  
 
THE NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT RESULTING FROM THE POSITIONING OF HIGH  
CENTER TO THE WEST OF UTAH EARLY IN THE WEEK WILL BEGINNING A  
GRADUAL DRYING TREND DURING THE FIRST HALF OF THE WEEK. THE MOST  
PRONOUNCED DRYING WILL BE ACROSS THE NORTH HALF OF THE STATE.  
MOISTURE WILL LIKELY LINGERING ACROSS THE FAR SOUTH THROUGH  
TUESDAY, WITH THE GREATEST CONCENTRATION CONFINED TO THE ARIZONA  
BORDER REGION.  
   
LONG TERM (AFTER 06Z WEDNESDAY)
 
DRY NORTHERLY FLOW WILL BE OVER  
THE REGION TO START THE LONG TERM FORECAST PERIOD, LIKELY PINNING  
ANY CONVECTION TO THE FAVORED HIGHER TERRAIN LOCATIONS WEDNESDAY.  
LITTLE MOVEMENT OF THE LONGWAVE RIDGE IS EXPECTED THROUGH AT LEAST  
FRIDAY, KEEPING THIS PERSISTENT PATTERN IN PLACE. AT LEAST A FEW  
MEMBERS OF THE GLOBAL MODEL SUITE DEPICT A SHIFT IN THE RIDGE  
SATURDAY. THE SHIFT IN THE RIDGE POSITION MAY ALLOW ENOUGH MID-LEVEL  
MOISTURE TO DEVELOP MORE ROBUST CONVECTION LATER SATURDAY INTO  
SUNDAY.  
 
THE MAIN EMPHASIS THROUGH THE LONG TERM PORTION OF THE FORECAST WILL  
BE A RETURN TO HOT AND RELATIVELY DRY CONDITIONS FOR MUCH OF THE  
CWA...WITH TEMPERATURES APPROACHING THE CENTURY MARK ONCE AGAIN FOR  
THE NORTHERN VALLEYS BY WEDNESDAY.  
 

 
   
AVIATION...SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL CONTINUE AT THE SLC TERMINAL
 
 
SHIFTING TO THE NORTHWEST BETWEEN 16-18Z.  
 

 
   
FIRE WEATHER
 
THE LINGERING MONSOONAL MOISTURE ACROSS FAR  
SOUTHERN AND EASTERN UTAH WILL BRING MAINLY AFTERNOON/EVENING  
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO THOSE AREAS THIS WEEKEND. ISOLATED  
WETTING RAINS ARE POSSIBLE FROM THE HEAVIER SHOWERS AND STORMS,  
MAINLY FOR FAR SOUTHERN UTAH. FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE FIRE  
DISTRICTS SUFFICIENT MOISTURE STILL EXISTS FOR TERRAIN-BASED  
CONVECTION TO FORM DURING THE AFTERNOON, THIS ACTIVITY SHOULD  
DISSIPATED FAIRLY QUICKLY DURING THE EVENING HOURS WITH THE LOSS  
OF DAYTIME HEATING.  
 
A GRADUAL DRYING TREND WILL DEVELOPING BEGINNING EARLY IN THE  
UPCOMING WEEK. THE CENTER OF THE RATHER BROAD UPPER RIDGE OVER THE  
WESTERN CONUS WILL BRING AN INCREASINGLY DRY NORTHWEST FLOW FIRST  
TO NORTHERN UTAH, THEN PRESSING SOUTH BY MIDWEEK AND PINNING WHAT  
MOISTURE IS LEFT NEAR THE ARIZONA BORDER.  
 

 
   
SLC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
 
 
UT...NONE.  
WY...NONE.  

 
 

 
 
SHORT TERM/FIRE WEATHER...CONGER  
LONG TERM/AVIATION...KRUSE  
 
FOR MORE INFORMATION FROM NOAA'S NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE VISIT...  
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/SALTLAKECITY  
 
FOR FREQUENTLY ASKED QUESTIONS ABOUT THE AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION  
VISIT...  
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/SALTLAKECITY/GENERAL/AFD_FAQS.PHP  
 
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