772  
FXUS63 KDVN 200759  
AFDDVN  
 
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION  
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE QUAD CITIES IA IL  
259 AM CDT FRI APR 20 2018  
 
   
SYNOPSIS
 
 
ISSUED AT 258 AM CDT FRI APR 20 2018  
 
HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS THE AREA LED TO QUIET WEATHER THIS MORNING  
ACROSS THE AREA. TEMPERATURES ACROSS NORTHERN COUNTIES WERE  
DIPPING CLOSE TO RECORD LOWS FOR THE DATE. A FEW HIGH CLOUDS WERE  
THE ONLY THING IDENTIFIED ON INFRARED SATELLITE THIS MORNING.  
THESE CLEAR SKIES WILL SET THE STAGE FOR A GREAT FRIDAY.  
 

 
   
SHORT TERM
 
(TODAY AND TONIGHT)  
ISSUED AT 258 AM CDT FRI APR 20 2018  
 
MAIN FORECAST CONCERN FOR THE SHORT TERM ARE THE TEMPERATURES. IT  
APPEARS THAT MOST GUIDANCE IS TOO LOW FOR TODAY AS FAR AS HIGHS  
GO. YESTERDAY, WE WERE WARMER THAN FORECAST, LIKELY DUE TO THE  
FULL SUN AND DEFT OF SNOW. AS A RESULT, BROUGHT HIGH TEMPS IN LINE  
WITH SOME OF THE WARMEST GUIDANCE. WHEN TODAY IS OVER, WOULDN'T BE  
SURPRISED TO SEE TEMPS WARMER THAN FORECAST. TONIGHT, CLOUDS WILL  
INCREASE AS SW H5 FLOW BRINGS WARMER AIR AND MORE MOISTURE INTO  
THE AREA. TODAY WILL DEFINITELY FEEL LIKE SPRING ACROSS THE AREA.  
   
LONG TERM
 
(SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)  
ISSUED AT 258 AM CDT FRI APR 20 2018  
 
THE LONG TERM WILL CONTAIN NO WINTER WEATHER.  
THOUGH THE OVER ALL FLOW WILL NOT FAVOR ABOVE NORMAL CONDITIONS, WE  
ARE DISCONNECTED FROM COLD AIR THROUGH LATE WEEK. OVER THE WEEKEND,  
A LARGE CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE CENTERED THE GREAT LAKES.  
THIS WILL BRING VERY LIGHT EASTERLY FLOW TO THE AREA, WITH PLENTY OF  
DRY AIR TO KEEP OUR FORECAST DRY, AS ANY LIGHT QPF INDICATED BY THE  
GFS IS MOST LIKELY GOING TO BE VIRGA FROM MID CLOUDS ONLY. THE EAST  
WINDS AROUND 10 MPH OR LESS THROUGH MONDAY WILL ALLOW FOR THE SLOW  
MODIFICATION OF THE AIR MASS TO CONTINUE. THUS, HIGHS IN THE UPPER  
50S TO LOWER 60S ARE EXPECTED, SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY, WITH LOWER  
TO MID 60S FOR MONDAY AND TUESDAY.  
 
BY TUESDAY, THE LOW PRESSURE TO THE SOUTH WILL SLIDE EAST INTO THE  
SOUTHEASTERN CONUS, WHICH WILL ALLOW FOR THE STAGNANT UPPER FLOW TO  
BECOME MORE ACTIVE IN NORTHWEST FLOW. THOUGH MOISTURE IS  
QUESTIONABLE, BOTH THE GFS AND GEM SUPPORT CHANCE POPS FOR RAIN  
TUESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH WEDNESDAY. HOWEVER, THE ECMWF SHOWS THAT  
WAVE STARVED FOR MOISTURE, AND LESS ENERGETIC.  
 
THE BLENDED SOLUTIONS INCORPORATE THE WETTER GFS AND GEM ENOUGH THAT  
HIGHS WEDNESDAY UNDER CLOUDS AND RAIN CHANCES ARE HELD TO THE MID TO  
UPPER 50S. THURSDAY AND FRIDAY ARE BOTH FORECAST TO IN THE LOWER TO  
MID 60S AGAIN. THUS, THE ENTIRE EXTENDED SUPPORTS SENSIBLE WEATHER  
VASTLY MORE SPRINGLIKE THAN ANY TIME THUS FAR IN APRIL THIS YEAR.  
 
ERVIN  
 

 
   
AVIATION
 
(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY NIGHT)  
ISSUED AT 118 AM CDT FRI APR 20 2018  
 
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD. AGAIN, LOOKS TO BE A  
GREAT DAY FOR AVIATION INTERESTS.  
 

 
   
HYDROLOGY
 
 
ISSUED AT 1231 PM CDT THU APR 19 2018  
 
A COMBINATION OF SNOW MELT AND RECENT RAINFALL IS ALLOWING  
TRIBUTARY RIVERS IN EASTERN IOWA TO SLOWLY RISE. THE MORE  
SIGNIFICANT RISES WILL BE SEEN ON THE IOWA AND CEDAR RIVERS WITH  
SOME LOCATIONS APPROACHING BUT REMAINING BELOW FLOOD STAGE.  
 
A RIVER FLOOD WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR THE CONESVILLE, IA AREA  
WHERE THE RIVER MAY REACH FLOOD STAGE IN THE NEXT 1.5 TO 2 DAYS.  
THE ARE STILL SOME QUESTIONS REGARDING THE AMOUNT OF ROUTED FLOW  
FROM NORTHERN IOWA.  
 

 
   
CLIMATE
 
 
ISSUED AT 244 AM CDT FRI APR 20 2018  
 
RECORD LOWS FOR APRIL 20...  
 
MOLINE.........25 IN 1983  
CEDAR RAPIDS...27 IN 2013  
DUBUQUE........26 IN 1956  
BURLINGTON.....28 IN 1956  
 

 
   
DVN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
 
 
IA...NONE.  
IL...NONE.  
MO...NONE.  

 
 

 
 
SYNOPSIS...GIBBS  
SHORT TERM...GIBBS  
LONG TERM...ERVIN  
AVIATION...GIBBS  
HYDROLOGY...08  
CLIMATE...GIBBS  
 
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