047
FXUS63 KDVN 100721
AFDDVN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE QUAD CITIES IA IL
221 AM CDT WED JUN 10 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- TODAY AND THURSDAY WILL SEE SEVERE STORMS THAT MAY BE
WIDESPREAD. THERE IN AN ENHANCED, LEVEL 3 OUT OF 5, RISK FOR
SEVERE STORMS EACH DAY. THERE CONTINUES TO BE A SIGNAL
SUGGESTING TWO ROUNDS OF STORMS EACH DAY. THE SECOND ROUND
EACH DAY COULD EXTEND INTO THE EVENING HOURS.
- ON BOTH DAYS, THE INITIAL DEVELOPMENT OF DISCRETE STORMS WILL
BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING VERY LARGE HAIL AND TORNADOES. ONCE
STORMS DEVELOP INTO A LINE, DAMAGING WINDS, POTENTIALLY OVER
70 MPH, AND SPIN-UP TORNADOES WILL BECOME THE MAIN RISKS.
- STORMS TODAY AND THURSDAY WILL BE VERY EFFICIENT IN PRODUCING
HEAVY RAINFALL. HEAVY RAIN TODAY MAY SET THE STAGE FOR
POTENTIAL FLASH FLOODING WITH THE STORMS ON THURSDAY.
SHORT TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/
ISSUED AT 219 AM CDT WED JUN 10 2026
HEAT AND HUMIDITY WILL BE SEEN ACROSS THE AREA TODAY WITH PEAK HEAT
INDICES IN THE MID TO UPPER 90S. CLOUD COVER COULD LOWER
TEMPERATURES AND AFTERNOON HEAT INDICES.
OUTSIDE OF THE HEAT, THE NEXT 48 HOURS WILL BE VERY INTERESTING.
THE VERY SHORT TERM MODELS CONTINUE TO SIGNAL THE POTENTIAL FOR TWO
SEPARATE ROUNDS OF STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS. THERE MAY ONLY BE A FEW
HOURS IN BETWEEN EACH ROUND OF STORMS.
WEDNESDAY/WEDNESDAY NIGHT...
THE FIRST ROUND OF STORMS IS NOW LOOKING TO OCCUR IN THE 10 AM TO 4
PM ACROSS THE AREA AND LIKELY ASSOCIATED WITH THE UPPER LEVEL
DISTURBANCE COMING OUT OF KANSAS. ROUND TWO LOOKS OCCUR 3 TO 10 PM
AND LOOKS TO BE A COMBINATION OF DIFFERENTIAL HEATING AND ANOTHER
DISTURBANCE COMING OUT OF NEBRASKA. IMPORTANT NOTE: THERE MAY ONLY
BE A COUPLE OF HOURS IN BETWEEN EACH ROUND.
THE INITIAL STORM DEVELOPMENT WITH EACH ROUND WILL INVOLVE DISCRETE
STORMS. GIVEN THE ATMOSPHERIC PROFILES, THE PRIMARY SEVERE RISKS
FROM THE INITIAL STORMS WILL BE VERY LARGE HAIL AND TORNADOES. ONCE
THE INITIAL STORMS GROW UPSCALE INTO LINES, THE PRIMARY SEVERE RISK
WILL SHIFT TO VERY DAMAGING WINDS AND SPIN-UP TORNADOES. THE SECOND
ROUND OF STORMS WILL BE AIDED BY THE STRENGTHENING LLJ LATE THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
THE CSU SEVERE ML PROGS FOR WEDNESDAY SHOW THIS WELL; THE TORNADO
RISK OF 5 TO 10% IS MAINLY ALONG/WEST OF THE MISSISSIPPI. LIKEWISE,
THE HAIL RISK IS 15-30% MAINLY ALONG/WEST OF THE MISSISSIPPI.
THE DAMAGING WIND RISK IS 30-45%, BUT, HAS A 45-60% PROBABILITY EAST
OF THE MISSISSIPPI. THIS AGREES WITH THE SCENARIO THAT THE INITIAL
SUPERCELLS WILL TRANSITION IN TO A QLCS ROUGHLY ALONG THE
MISSISSIPPI.
THAT BEING SAID, PRECIPITATION LOADED DOWNDRAFTS WOULD BE CAPABLE OF
PRODUCING DAMAGING WINDS OF 60-70 MPH. THE SUB-HOUR CAMS ARE
SUGGESTING THERE MAY BE CORRIDORS OF DAMAGING WINDS OF 70-80+ MPH
FROM THE STRONGEST STORMS.
ONCE THE SECOND ROUND OF STORMS CLEAR THE AREA, THE REMAINDER OF THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS LOOK TO BE MAINLY QUIET.
THURSDAY/THURSDAY NIGHT...
THURSDAY WILL BE A NEAR REPEAT OF WEDNESDAY.
THE TIMING OF THE TWO ROUNDS OF STORMS MAY VARY BY AN HOUR OR TWO. A
DISTURBANCE MOVING OUT OF THE PLAINS WILL INITIATE THE FIRST ROUND
ROUGHLY FROM 10 AM TO 4 PM. THE STRONG COLD FRONT AND ASSOCIATED LOW
LOOKS TO INITIATE ROUND TWO FROM 3 TO 10 PM.
THE TORNADO RISK LOOKS TO BE HIGHER FOR THURSDAY. THE CSU SEVERE ML
PROGS AND SPC HAVE THE 10% TORNADO RISK FOR NEARLY ALL THE AREA. THE
SURFACE LOW ASSOCIATED WITH THE COLD FRONT FOR THE SECOND ROUND OF
STORMS MAY BE WHEN THE TORNADO RISK IS THE HIGHEST. INDEED, SOME
CAMS ARE GENERATING STRONG TO VERY STRONG HELICITY TRACKS NEAR THE
SURFACE LOW IN THE DISCRETE STORM FORMATION.
THUS VERY LARGE HAIL AND TORNADOES WOULD BE SEEN DURING THE INITIAL
DISCRETE STORM FORMATION FOR EACH ROUND ON THURSDAY. STRONG
TORNADOES WOULD BE POSSIBLE WITH THE SECOND ROUND OF STORMS DUE TO
THE SURFACE LOW CAUSING MORE BACKING OF THE SURFACE WINDS AND THUS
INCREASING THE ROTATION GOING INTO STORM UPDRAFTS.
LIKE WEDNESDAY, THE INITIAL SUPERCELLS WILL GROW UPSCALE INTO A QLCS
WITH EACH ROUND ON THURSDAY; THE SEVERE RISKS WOULD THEN TRANSITION
TO DAMAGING WINDS AND SPIN-UP TORNADOES. DAMAGING WINDS OF 60-70 MPH
WOULD BE SEE WITH POTENTIAL CORRIDORS OF 70-80+ MPH WINDS FROM THE
STRONGER STORMS.
AN ADDITIONAL CONCERN FOR THURSDAY WILL BE THE POTENTIAL FOR FLASH
FLOODING, ESPECIALLY IF STORMS REPEAT OVER THE SAME AREAS. THE
GROUND WILL BE PRIMED FROM THE HEAVY RAIN ON WEDNESDAY SO ADDITIONAL
ROUNDS OF HEAVY RAIN THURSDAY WOULD RESULT IN RAPID RUNOFF AND
POTENTIAL FLASH FLOODING. DEPENDING UPON HOW STORMS EVOLVE
WEDNESDAY, A FLASH FLOOD WATCH FOR THURSDAY MAY NEED TO BE
CONSIDERED.
LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/
ISSUED AT 219 AM CDT WED JUN 10 2026
FRIDAY...WITH THE COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE THURSDAY NIGHT, THE FLOW
THROUGHOUT THE ATMOSPHERE BECOMES UNIDIRECTIONAL OUT OF THE
WESTERLY AS HIGH PRESSURE ANCHORS TO OUR SOUTH. COLD AIR
ADVECTION IS FORECASTED TO PUSH HIGHS BACK DOWN INTO THE UPPER
70S WITH MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES.
SATURDAY...PLEASANT CONDITIONS DO NOT LAST LONG AS ANOTHER SHORTWAVE
ROTATES INTO THE DAKOTAS SATURDAY AFTERNOON. A COLD FRONT ATTACHED
TO AN OCCLUDED LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM SOUTH OF HUDSON BAY WILL BE
PUSHED INTO IOWA AS A SECONDARY LOW PRESSURE DEEPENS OVER KANSAS.
THIS WILL BRINGS POPS BACK UP AROUND 40-60%. A LITTLE BIT OF DEJU VU
FROM THURSDAY WITH WARM AND MOIST AIR ADVECTION IN THE LOW LEVELS,
BUT THE LIMITED TIME WITH THE SOUTHERLY FLOW SHOULD ONLY PERMIT A
LOW-TO-MEDIUM CHANCE (30-50%) FOR SBCAPE TO GET ABOVE 1000 J/KG.
BULK SHEAR IS ALSO EXPECTED TO BE WEAKER THAN THURSDAY AT ONLY 35-40
KNOTS. THEREFORE, THERE IS A MARGINAL CHANCE AT SEVERE STORMS, BUT
NOTHING LIKE WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY.
SUNDAY-MONDAY...AS NORTHERLY FLOW RETURNS IN THE LOW LEVELS POST
COLD FRONT, HIGHS RETURN BACK TO THE 70S ON SUNDAY. THERE IS SOME
MODEL UNCERTAINTY ON CLOUD COVER AS SOME LINGERING MID-LEVEL
MOISTURE COULD MANIFEST INTO AN ALTOSTRATUS DECK. REGARDLESS, SUNDAY
WILL LIKELY (60-80%) BE A DRY ONE. MONDAY IS MORE IFFY THOUGH AS A
TROUGH DIGS INTO THE NORTHERN ROCKIES, PRODUCING A FRONT RANGE LOW
PRESSURE AND DEVELOPING A WARM FRONT. POPS ON MONDAY WILL BE
DEPENDENT ON THE FRONTAL PLACE AND A POTENTIAL MID-LEVEL F-GEN BAND.
HIGHS HAVE A GOOD CHANCE (80-90%) OF ONCE AGAIN BEING BELOW 80
DEGREES AS COOL AIR AND CLOUD COVER STICK AROUND.
AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY/
ISSUED AT 1230 AM CDT WED JUN 10 2026
THROUGH SUNRISE SOUTHERLY WINDS AROUND 10 KNOTS OR LESS ACROSS
EASTERN IOWA AND NORTHERN ILLINOIS. AFTER 12Z/10 TWO ROUNDS OF
CONVECTION THAT HAS A HIGH (>70%) PROBABILITY OF BEING SEVERE
WITH NON-STORM WINDS GUSTING UP TO 30 KNOTS FROM THE SOUTH OR
SOUTHWEST. IFR CIGS/VSBYS WITH GUSTS UP TO 50 KNOTS IN THE
STRONGEST STORMS.
DVN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
IA...NONE.
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.
SHORT TERM...08
LONG TERM...DELAUNE
AVIATION...08
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