994
FXUS63 KDVN 240254
AFDDVN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE QUAD CITIES IA IL
954 PM CDT SAT JUN 23 2018
..EVENING HYDROLOGY UPDATE
SYNOPSIS
ISSUED AT 244 PM CDT SAT JUN 23 2018
SYNOPSIS
A MILD AIR MASS REMAINS IN PLACE OVER THE THE REGION TODAY, WITH
TEMPERATURES AT 2 PM RANGING FROM 70 TO 80, WITH THE COOLEST
READINGS UNDER CLOUD COVER. DEWPOINTS REMAIN RATHER HIGH CONSIDERING
THIS IS SUPPOSED TO BE THE DRY AIR MASS COMPARED TO THE PAST WEEK.
THE WET GROUND AND MATURING CROPS ARE LIKELY A FACTOR IN HOUR
DEWPOINTS REMAINING IN THE LOWER 60S VS DROPPING TO THE 50S TODAY.
THIS IS HELPING RETAIN CLOUD COVER AT LOW LEVELS, WHILE AT UPPER
LEVELS, A SHORT WAVE IS MOVING EAST THROUGH IOWA. THE WEAK LIFT IS
BRINGING A FEW SPRINKLES AND EXTREMELY SMALL SHOWERS TO THE LOCAL
AREA. SHOWERS SEEM TO BE LIMITED TO A DIAMETER OF NO MORE THAN 2
MILES.
SHORT TERM
(THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 244 PM CDT SAT JUN 23 2018
EARLY EVENING SPRINKLES WILL DISSIPATE BY 8 PM. INSTABILITY WILL BE
MARGINAL AT BEST, SO MEASURABLE RAIN REMAINS A VERY LOW PROBABILITY.
WITH PARTLY CLOUD TO CLOUDY SKIES THIS EVENING, TEMPERATURES WILL BE
SLOW TO FALL, AND WITH INCREASING DEWPOINT, TONIGHT'S LOWS SHOULD
ONLY FALL TO THE LOWER TO MID 60S IN MOST SPOTS. SUNDAY, PARTLY TO
MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES WILL AGAIN KEEP HEATING DOWN FROM THE WARMING
ATMOSPHERE'S POTENTIAL. LOWER TO MID 80S SHOULD BE ALL WE CAN
ACCOMPLISH FOR HIGHS AS MID CLOUDS ADVECT INTO THE WEST. WE STILL
HAVE THE LOW POPS WEST FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS BUT OVER ALL
THE MODELS HAVE SLOWED THE FORCING FOR THIS EVENT UNTIL MUCH LATER
INTO MONDAY.
LONG TERM
(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 244 PM CDT SAT JUN 23 2018
THREE MAIN THEMES IN THE EXTENDED FORECAST. THE FIRST IS A BEAUTIFUL
WEEKEND BEFORE A TRANSITION TO SOUTHWEST FLOW AND A RETURN OF
MOISTURE AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES AND FINALLY THE HEAT TO END THE
WEEK. TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED IN THE 80S SUNDAY WITH DEWPOINTS IN
THE LOW TO MID 60S. THIS SHOULD MAKE FOR A GOOD DAY AS WELL.
MONDAY INTO TUESDAY, CONSENSUS IS THAT THE 70 DEGREE DEWPOINTS
RETURN TO THE AREA ALONG WITH H85 FLOW AND A H5 WAVE. THIS IS THE
FIRST DECENT WAVE IN A LONG TIME THAT WILL HAVE SHEAR WITH IT. AT
THIS TIME, IT APPEARS THAT AN ELEVATED BAND OF WAA CONVECTION WILL
OVERSPREAD THE AREA SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY. HOW LONG THIS
CONVECTION REMAINS AND HOW MUCH DESTABILIZATION CAN OCCUR WILL
GREATLY AFFECT CONVECTION LATER IN THE DAY. THAT SAID, IF THIS CAN
OCCUR LOW LEVEL SHEAR WILL BE CONDUCIVE FOR SEVERE WEATHER.
OBVIOUSLY A LOT OF MESOSCALE DETAILS TO BE RESOLVED IN THE COMING
DAYS BUT THE THREAT REMAINS.
LATER INTO THE WEEK H5 RIDGE BUILDS INTO THE AREA. CURRENT IDEA IS
THE CAP WILL REMAIN SOUTH OF THE AREA SO THAT NIGHTTIME MCSS LOOK
POSSIBLE. WE LOOK TO BE HAVING A RAINY END TO THE LONG TERM. THIS
COULD ADD TO CURRENT FLOODING AS WELL.
AVIATION
(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SUNDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 646 PM CDT SAT JUN 23 2018
SKIES WILL BECOME PARTLY CLOUDY TO MOSTLY CLEAR TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY
WITH VFR CONDITIONS WITH LIGHT WINDS TONIGHT BECOMING LIGHT SOUTHEAST
ON SUNDAY. ANY CLOUD BASES WILL BE ABOVE 4K AGL UNDER WEAK HIGH PRESSURE.
HYDROLOGY
ISSUED AT 945 PM CDT SAT JUN 23 2018
LITTLE CHANGE WITH THE EVENING RIVER FORECASTS. ON THE
MISSISSIPPI, LD 16 AT IL CITY WILL GET CLOSE TO MODERATE FLOOD
STAGE BY DAY 7 IN EARLY JULY AND MAY HAVE TO UPGRADE IN LATER
FORECASTS. OTHERWISE NO CATEGORY CHANGES FOR NOW ON THE REST OF
THE MISSISSIPPI. LD11 AT DUBUQUE, LD 13 FULTON, AND LD 14
LECLAIRE ALL GET CLOSE TO OR EVEN SURPASS FLOOD STAGE BUT WITH
LOWER CONFIDENCE, THUS RIVER FLOOD WATCHES CONTINUE FOR THOSE
SITES UNTIL A BETTER HANDLE ON ROUTED FLOW IS ATTAINED. ON THE
TRIBS, COMO ON THE ROCK RIVER DROPPED BELOW FLOOD STAGE EARLIER
THIS SATURDAY AFTERNOON, WHILE BOTH JOSLIN AND MOLINE CONTINUE TO
RISE AT SHARP RATES ABOVE MODERATE FLOOD STAGE AND SHOULD CREST
SUNDAY AFTERNOON INTO EVENING. MODERATE FLOODING ALSO CONTINUES ON
THE WAPSIPINICON RIVER NEAR DE WITT.
WITH ROUNDS OF MORE RAIN, SOME POSSIBLY HEAVY, EXPECTED ON MONDAY
INTO TUESDAY, THE FORECAST CRESTS AND/OR POST-CREST RECESSIONS
MAY BE PROLONGED OR CHANGED, DEPENDING ON WHERE AND HOW MUCH RAIN
FALLS NEXT WEEK.
DVN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
IA...NONE.
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.
SYNOPSIS...ERVIN
SHORT TERM...ERVIN
LONG TERM...ERVIN
AVIATION...16
HYDROLOGY...12/COUSINS
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.
Main Text Page