845  
FXUS63 KDVN 201709  
AFDDVN  
 
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION  
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE QUAD CITIES IA IL  
1109 AM CST MON NOV 20 2017  
   
..18Z AVIATION UPDATE
 
 
   
SYNOPSIS
 
 
ISSUED AT 301 AM CST MON NOV 20 2017  
 
EARLY THIS MORNING A MIDLEVEL NW FLOW USHERED IN HIGH LEVEL  
CLOUDS. THIS FLOW IS FORECAST TO BECOME MORE ZONAL THROUGH THE  
SHORT TERM PERIOD. AT THE SURFACE, SOUTHWEST FLOW LEAD TO THE  
RETURN OF WARMER AND SLIGHTLY MORE HUMID AIR ACROSS THE AREA. THIS  
FLOW AND WARMER TEMPERATURES WILL BE THE PRIMARY WEATHER CONCERNS  
THROUGH THE SHORT TERM.  
 

 
   
SHORT TERM
 
(TODAY AND TONIGHT)  
ISSUED AT 301 AM CST MON NOV 20 2017  
 
OVERALL QUIET WEATHER PATTERN WITH GUSTY WINDS AND WARM  
TEMPERATURES BEING THE HALLMARK OF TODAY. CLOUDS EARLY THIS  
MORNING SHOULD THIN AS WAA BRINGS H85 TEMPS OF 7 TO 9C THIS  
AFTERNOON ACROSS THE AREA. WITH THE INCREASE OF BAROCLINICITY,  
WINDS WILL PICK UP AS WELL. THIS SHOULD PROMOTE TEMPERATURES  
INTO THE 50S. MOS GUIDANCE APPEARS TO BE THE WARMEST OF ALL  
GUIDANCE. MOST OF THE GUIDANCE FALLS INTO THE LOW TO MID 50S  
ACROSS THE AREA. IF WE MIX DEEP ENOUGH, AROUND H85 TEMPS WILL BE  
TOO LOW CURRENTLY AND NEED TO BE INCREASED. CONFIDENCE IS LOW IN  
THIS OCCURRING. ONCE THE SUN SETS, WINDS SHOULD SLACKEN. A DRY  
COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO APPROACH THE AREA BY 12Z TUESDAY.  
OVERNIGHT LOWS SHOULD BE WARMER THAN THIS MORNINGS.  
   
LONG TERM
 
(TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)  
ISSUED AT 301 AM CST MON NOV 20 2017  
 
THE HIGHLIGHTS OF THE LONG TERM FORECAST PERIOD ARE MAINLY DRY  
WEATHER AND VARIABLE TEMPERATURES.  
 
EXPECT STRONG COLD AIR ADVECTION TUESDAY, WITH A NORTHWEST WIND  
GUSTING AROUND 35 MPH AND FALLING AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES INTO THE  
30S. THE SURFACE RIDGE WILL MOVE THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA WEDNESDAY  
WITH HIGHS ONLY IN THE 30S.  
 
LATE WEEK, LOOK FOR A RETURN TO SOUTHWEST SURFACE WINDS WITH HIGHS  
WARMING INTO THE 50S AGAIN BY FRIDAY. THERE ARE LOW PRECIPITATION  
CHANCES MAINLY FRIDAY NIGHT ASSOCIATED WITH THE NEXT FROPA, WHICH  
WILL COOL OFF TEMPERATURES OVER THE WEEKEND. BY SUNDAY, HIGHS WILL  
AGAIN BE IN THE 30S.  
 

 
   
AVIATION
 
(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY AFTERNOON)  
ISSUED AT 1107 AM CST MON NOV 20 2017  
 
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO PERSIST THROUGH THE TAF CYCLE. GUSTY SW  
WINDS 15-25+ KTS WILL DIMINISH LATER TONIGHT AS A COLD FRONT  
APPROACHES. THE FRONT WILL PASS THROUGH THE TERMINALS 08Z-12Z  
SWITCHING WINDS TO NW AND TURNING GUSTY YET AGAIN AT 15-25+ KTS BY  
MID MORNING TUESDAY.  
 

 
   
DVN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
 
 
IA...NONE.  
IL...NONE.  
MO...NONE.  

 
 

 
 
SYNOPSIS...GIBBS  
SHORT TERM...GIBBS  
LONG TERM...RP KINNEY  
AVIATION...MCCLURE  
 
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