091
FGUS73 KDDC 251640
ESFDDC
KSC007-025-033-047-051-055-057-067-069-075-081-083-093-097-101-
119-129-135-145-151-165-171-175-185-187-189-195-261700-
PROBABILISTIC HYDROLOGIC OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS
1139 AM CDT THU APR 25 2024
IN TABLE 1 BELOW...THE CURRENT (CS) AND HISTORICAL (HS) OR NORMAL
PROBABILITIES OF EXCEEDING MINOR...MODERATE...AND MAJOR FLOOD STAGES
ARE LISTED FOR THE VALID TIME PERIOD.
CS VALUES INDICATE THE PROBABILITY OF REACHING A FLOOD CATEGORY
BASED ON CURRENT CONDITIONS.
HS VALUES INDICATE THE PROBABILITY OF REACHING A FLOOD CATEGORY
BASED ON HISTORICAL OR NORMAL CONDITIONS.
WHEN THE VALUE OF CS IS MORE THAN HS...THE PROBABILITY OF
EXCEEDING THAT LEVEL IS HIGHER THAN NORMAL. WHEN THE VALUE OF CS IS
LESS THAN HS...THE PROBABILITY OF EXCEEDING THAT LEVEL IS LOWER
THAN NORMAL.
..TABLE 1--PROBABILITIES FOR MINOR...MODERATE AND MAJOR FLOODING
VALID PERIOD: 04/27/2024 - 07/26/2024
: CURRENT AND HISTORICAL
: CHANCES OF EXCEEDING
: FLOOD CATEGORIES
: AS A PERCENTAGE (%)
CATEGORICAL :
FLOOD STAGES (FT) : MINOR MODERATE MAJOR
LOCATION MINOR MOD MAJOR : CS HS CS HS CS HS
-------- ----- ----- ----- : --- --- --- --- --- ---
:SMOKY HILL RIVER
ARNOLD 12N 7.0 9.0 11.0 : <5 14 <5 <5 <5 <5
SCHOENCHEN 2E 11.0 14.0 17.0 : 7 9 <5 6 <5 <5
:BIG CREEK
ELLIS 15.0 17.0 19.0 : <5 <5 <5 <5 <5 <5
HAYS 2SSE 26.0 29.0 32.0 : <5 5 <5 <5 <5 <5
:SALINE RIVER
WAKEENEY 5N 13.0 15.0 17.0 : <5 5 <5 <5 <5 <5
:ARKANSAS RIVER
COOLIDGE 8.0 10.0 12.0 : 8 10 <5 <5 <5 <5
SYRACUSE 1S 10.0 12.0 14.0 : 6 <5 <5 <5 <5 <5
GARDEN CITY 10.0 13.0 16.0 : <5 <5 <5 <5 <5 <5
DODGE CITY 11.0 13.0 15.0 : <5 <5 <5 <5 <5 <5
:WALNUT CREEK
NEKOMA 29.0 31.0 33.0 : 5 <5 <5 <5 <5 <5
:BUCKNER CREEK
BURDETT 7WSW 16.0 21.0 25.0 : <5 <5 <5 <5 <5 <5
:PAWNEE CREEK
BURDETT 6W 30.0 32.0 34.0 : <5 <5 <5 <5 <5 <5
:PAWNEE RIVER
SANFORD 24.0 27.0 30.0 : <5 <5 <5 <5 <5 <5
:RATTLESNAKE CREEK
MACKSVILLE 8SE 9.0 10.0 11.0 : <5 <5 <5 <5 <5 <5
ZENITH 10NNW 17.0 18.0 19.0 : <5 7 <5 5 <5 <5
:SOUTH FORK NINNESCAH RIVER
PRATT 9.0 11.0 13.0 : <5 7 <5 <5 <5 <5
:CROOKED CREEK
ENGLEWOOD 6.5 8.0 10.0 : 9 5 5 <5 <5 <5
:CIMARRON RIVER
FORGAN 8NNE 5.0 6.0 7.0 : 5 <5 <5 <5 <5 <5
:MEDICINE LODGE RIVER
KIOWA 2NE 10.0 12.0 13.0 : <5 <5 <5 <5 <5 <5
LEGEND
CS = CONDITIONAL SIMULATION (CURRENT OUTLOOK)
HS = HISTORICAL SIMULATION
FT = FEET
IN TABLE 2 BELOW...THE 95 THROUGH 5 PERCENT COLUMNS INDICATE THE
PROBABILITY OF EXCEEDING THE LISTED STAGE LEVELS (FT) FOR THE VALID
TIME PERIOD.
..TABLE 2--EXCEEDANCE PROBABILITIES
CHANCE OF EXCEEDING STAGES
AT SPECIFIC LOCATIONS
VALID PERIOD: 04/27/2024 - 07/26/2024
LOCATION 95% 90% 75% 50% 25% 10% 5%
-------- ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------
:SMOKY HILL RIVER
ARNOLD 12N 0.0 0.0 0.1 2.4 5.0 6.5 6.8
SCHOENCHEN 2E 2.2 2.3 2.3 4.2 5.3 8.5 12.7
:BIG CREEK
ELLIS 9.4 9.4 9.4 9.6 10.4 12.7 13.0
HAYS 2SSE 0.3 1.1 4.8 5.5 7.9 17.0 22.4
:SALINE RIVER
WAKEENEY 5N 2.6 2.6 2.6 2.6 5.5 9.9 11.5
:ARKANSAS RIVER
COOLIDGE 3.5 3.5 3.6 3.9 4.5 7.5 9.8
SYRACUSE 1S 5.0 5.0 5.1 5.4 6.2 8.3 10.5
GARDEN CITY 5.5 5.7 5.8 6.0 6.5 7.2 8.6
DODGE CITY 7.2 7.2 7.2 7.2 7.6 8.5 9.8
:WALNUT CREEK
NEKOMA 7.2 7.2 7.3 12.2 20.0 23.6 29.3
:BUCKNER CREEK
BURDETT 7WSW 4.7 4.7 4.7 4.8 7.7 11.0 11.8
:PAWNEE CREEK
BURDETT 6W 2.4 2.4 2.4 4.2 10.0 15.4 18.6
:PAWNEE RIVER
SANFORD 5.5 5.5 5.5 7.0 10.0 13.0 16.5
:RATTLESNAKE CREEK
MACKSVILLE 8SE 2.9 2.9 3.1 4.3 5.0 6.5 7.1
ZENITH 10NNW 11.7 11.7 11.8 13.0 14.6 15.3 16.5
:SOUTH FORK NINNESCAH RIVER
PRATT 2.5 2.5 2.7 4.4 5.6 6.7 7.8
:CROOKED CREEK
ENGLEWOOD 3.4 3.4 3.4 4.0 4.9 6.4 8.4
:CIMARRON RIVER
FORGAN 8NNE 2.6 2.6 2.6 2.6 3.5 4.2 5.0
:MEDICINE LODGE RIVER
KIOWA 2NE 0.1 0.1 1.0 2.7 4.4 6.8 9.9
IN TABLE 3 BELOW...THE 95 THROUGH 5 PERCENT COLUMNS INDICATE THE
PROBABILITY OF FALLING BELOW THE LISTED STAGE LEVELS (FT) FOR THE
VALID TIME PERIOD.
..TABLE 3--NONEXCEEDANCE PROBABILITIES
CHANCE OF FALLING BELOW STAGES
AT SPECIFIC LOCATIONS
VALID PERIOD: 04/27/2024 - 07/26/2024
LOCATION 95% 90% 75% 50% 25% 10% 5%
-------- ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------
:SMOKY HILL RIVER
ARNOLD 12N 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
SCHOENCHEN 2E 2.2 2.0 2.0 2.0 2.0 2.0 2.0
:BIG CREEK
ELLIS 9.4 9.4 9.4 9.4 9.4 9.4 9.4
HAYS 2SSE 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
:SALINE RIVER
WAKEENEY 5N 0.5 0.5 0.5 0.5 0.5 0.5 0.5
THESE LONG-RANGE PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOKS CONTAIN FORECAST VALUES THAT
ARE CALCULATED USING MULTIPLE SEASON SCENARIOS FROM 30 OR MORE YEARS
OF CLIMATOLOGICAL DATA...INCLUDING CURRENT CONDITIONS OF THE
RIVER...SOIL MOISTURE...SNOW COVER...AND 30 TO 90 DAY LONG-RANGE
OUTLOOKS OF TEMPERATURE AND PRECIPITATION. BY PROVIDING A RANGE OF
PROBABILITIES...THE LEVEL OF RISK ASSOCIATED WITH LONG-RANGE PLANNING
DECISIONS CAN BE DETERMINED. THESE PROBABILISTIC FORECASTS ARE PART
OF THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE'S ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION
SERVICE.
VISIT OUR WEB SITE WEATHER.GOV/DDC FOR MORE WEATHER AND WATER
INFORMATION.
THE NEXT OUTLOOK WILL BE ISSUED NEAR THE 25TH OF EACH MONTH.
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.
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