310  
FGUS73 KSGF 301713  
ESFSGF  
MOC097-105-119-145-153-161-169-203-209-KSC021-301715-  
 
PROBABILISTIC HYDROLOGIC OUTLOOK  
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO  
1205 PM CDT SAT SEP 30 2017  
 
...NEAR TO ABOVE NORMAL CHANCES FOR RIVER FLOODING ACROSS SOUTHEAST  
KANSAS AND THE MISSOURI OZARKS THIS FALL...  
 
THERE WILL BE AN ABOVE NORMAL CHANCE FOR RIVER FLOODING ACROSS THE  
LITTLE OSAGE...MARMATON AND SPRING RIVER BASINS IN SOUTHEAST KANSAS  
AND EXTREME SOUTHWEST MISSOURI THROUGH THIS FALL. ACROSS THE OTHER  
LARGER BASINS IN THE NWS SPRINGFIELD HYDROLOGIC SERVICE AREA  
(HSA)...THERE WILL BE A NEAR NORMAL CHANCE OF FLOODING. THIS IS BASED  
ON SEASONAL CLIMATE OUTLOOKS AND CURRENT RIVER AND SOIL MOISTURE  
CONDITIONS.  
 
IN TABLE 1 BELOW...THE CURRENT (CS) AND HISTORICAL (HS) OR NORMAL  
PROBABILITIES OF EXCEEDING MINOR...MODERATE...AND MAJOR FLOOD STAGES  
ARE LISTED FOR THE VALID TIME PERIOD.  
 
CS VALUES INDICATE THE PROBABILITY OF REACHING A FLOOD CATEGORY  
BASED ON CURRENT CONDITIONS.  
 
HS VALUES INDICATE THE PROBABILITY OF REACHING A FLOOD CATEGORY  
BASED ON HISTORICAL OR NORMAL CONDITIONS.  
 
WHEN THE VALUE OF CS IS MORE THAN HS...THE PROBABILITY OF  
EXCEEDING THAT LEVEL IS HIGHER THAN NORMAL. WHEN THE VALUE OF CS IS  
LESS THAN HS...THE PROBABILITY OF EXCEEDING THAT LEVEL IS LOWER  
THAN NORMAL.  
 
   
..TABLE 1--PROBABILITIES FOR MINOR...MODERATE AND MAJOR FLOODING
 
 
VALID PERIOD: 09/30/2017 - 12/29/2017  
 
: CURRENT AND HISTORICAL  
: CHANCES OF EXCEEDING  
: FLOOD CATEGORIES  
: AS A PERCENTAGE (%)  
CATEGORICAL :  
FLOOD STAGES (FT) : MINOR MODERATE MAJOR  
LOCATION MINOR MOD MAJOR : CS HS CS HS CS HS  
-------- ----- ----- ----- : --- --- --- --- --- ---  
:LITTLE OSAGE RIVER  
FULTON 22.0 25.0 30.0 : 51 36 46 30 6 5  
HORTON 41.0 45.0 50.0 : 55 45 19 26 <5 <5  
:MARMATON RIVER  
FORT SCOTT 38.0 42.0 43.0 : 26 19 15 7 8 <5  
NEVADA 20.0 26.0 31.0 : 56 45 26 19 16 9  
:OSAGE RIVER  
SCHELL CITY 30.0 35.0 45.0 : 45 46 8 12 <5 <5  
:SAC RIVER  
CAPLINGER MILLS 16.0 19.0 28.0 : 31 29 23 23 <5 5  
:GASCONADE RIVER  
HAZELGREEN 21.0 26.0 30.0 : 7 8 <5 <5 <5 <5  
:ROUBIDOUX CREEK  
WAYNESVILLE 7.0 14.0 20.0 : 23 23 <5 <5 <5 <5  
:BIG PINEY  
FORT LEONARD WOOD 8.0 15.0 23.0 : 35 27 8 8 <5 <5  
:GASCONADE RIVER  
JEROME 15.0 25.0 30.0 : 19 18 <5 <5 <5 <5  
:SPRING RIVER  
CARTHAGE 10.0 14.0 20.0 : 21 19 8 6 <5 <5  
WACO 19.0 30.0 33.0 : 27 23 <5 <5 <5 <5  
BAXTER SPRINGS 14.0 22.0 30.0 : 28 24 9 9 <5 <5  
:SHOAL CREEK  
JOPLIN 14.0 15.0 16.0 : 9 10 6 7 <5 <5  
:ELK RIVER  
TIFF CITY 15.0 20.0 25.0 : 14 19 <5 8 <5 <5  
 
LEGEND  
CS = CONDITIONAL SIMULATION (CURRENT OUTLOOK)  
HS = HISTORICAL SIMULATION  
FT = FEET  
 
IN TABLE 2 BELOW...THE 95 THROUGH 5 PERCENT COLUMNS INDICATE THE  
PROBABILITY OF EXCEEDING THE LISTED STAGE LEVELS (FT) FOR THE VALID  
TIME PERIOD.  
   
..TABLE 2--EXCEEDANCE PROBABILITIES
 
 
CHANCE OF EXCEEDING STAGES  
AT SPECIFIC LOCATIONS  
VALID PERIOD: 09/30/2017 - 12/29/2017  
LOCATION 95% 90% 75% 50% 25% 10% 5%  
-------- ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------  
:LITTLE OSAGE RIVER  
FULTON 3.3 4.2 8.2 24.3 27.5 29.6 30.2  
HORTON 26.1 27.7 33.0 42.3 44.1 47.4 47.7  
:MARMATON RIVER  
FORT SCOTT 7.6 10.0 19.7 32.1 38.5 42.8 43.5  
NEVADA 3.1 5.2 12.9 22.2 26.2 32.3 34.0  
:OSAGE RIVER  
SCHELL CITY 6.7 9.8 18.6 28.3 31.7 34.5 35.9  
:SAC RIVER  
CAPLINGER MILLS 6.2 6.2 6.7 10.6 16.4 24.8 26.6  
:GASCONADE RIVER  
HAZELGREEN 1.6 1.7 3.0 5.6 12.0 17.4 22.5  
:ROUBIDOUX CREEK  
WAYNESVILLE 1.0 1.0 1.0 3.6 6.9 10.1 11.2  
:BIG PINEY  
FORT LEONARD WOOD 2.0 2.0 3.1 5.1 9.5 14.1 17.4  
:GASCONADE RIVER  
JEROME 2.3 2.3 3.3 7.8 12.6 19.5 23.9  
:SPRING RIVER  
CARTHAGE 3.0 3.1 4.1 5.3 9.0 13.4 15.1  
WACO 3.3 3.7 7.2 10.9 19.8 24.4 27.3  
BAXTER SPRINGS 3.8 4.5 5.9 7.7 15.1 21.6 24.9  
:SHOAL CREEK  
JOPLIN 2.0 2.4 3.3 5.3 8.5 13.6 15.6  
:ELK RIVER  
TIFF CITY 2.6 3.0 5.4 7.5 11.0 16.9 18.3  
 
IN TABLE 3 BELOW...THE 95 THROUGH 5 PERCENT COLUMNS INDICATE THE  
PROBABILITY OF FALLING BELOW THE LISTED STAGE LEVELS (FT) FOR THE  
VALID TIME PERIOD.  
   
..TABLE 3--NONEXCEEDANCE PROBABILITIES
 
 
CHANCE OF FALLING BELOW STAGES  
AT SPECIFIC LOCATIONS  
VALID PERIOD: 09/30/2017 - 12/29/2017  
LOCATION 95% 90% 75% 50% 25% 10% 5%  
-------- ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------  
:LITTLE OSAGE RIVER  
FULTON 3.3 3.2 3.2 3.2 3.1 3.1 3.1  
HORTON 25.9 25.8 25.5 25.3 25.2 25.2 25.1  
:MARMATON RIVER  
FORT SCOTT 7.5 7.5 7.3 7.2 7.1 7.1 7.1  
NEVADA 2.5 2.5 2.4 2.3 2.3 2.2 2.2  
:OSAGE RIVER  
SCHELL CITY 5.6 5.3 5.1 4.9 4.8 4.8 4.7  
:SAC RIVER  
CAPLINGER MILLS 5.0 5.0 5.0 4.9 4.9 4.9 4.9  
:GASCONADE RIVER  
HAZELGREEN 1.6 1.6 1.4 1.1 1.0 0.9 0.9  
:ROUBIDOUX CREEK  
WAYNESVILLE 1.0 1.0 1.0 1.0 1.0 1.0 1.0  
:BIG PINEY  
FORT LEONARD WOOD 1.9 1.9 1.8 1.6 1.5 1.5 1.5  
:GASCONADE RIVER  
JEROME 2.2 2.0 1.9 1.6 1.3 1.2 1.2  
 
THESE LONG-RANGE PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOKS CONTAIN FORECAST VALUES THAT  
ARE CALCULATED USING MULTIPLE SEASON SCENARIOS FROM 30 OR MORE YEARS  
OF CLIMATOLOGICAL DATA...INCLUDING CURRENT CONDITIONS OF THE  
RIVER...SOIL MOISTURE...SNOW COVER...AND 30 TO 90 DAY LONG-RANGE  
OUTLOOKS OF TEMPERATURE AND PRECIPITATION. BY PROVIDING A RANGE OF  
PROBABILITIES...THE LEVEL OF RISK ASSOCIATED WITH LONG-RANGE PLANNING  
DECISIONS CAN BE DETERMINED. THESE PROBABILISTIC FORECASTS ARE PART  
OF THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE'S ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION  
SERVICE.  
 
VISIT OUR WEB SITE WEATHER.GOV/SGF ...UNDER THE RIVERS AND LAKES TAB  
AND EXPERIMENTAL LONG RANGE RISK TAB FOR MORE WEATHER INFORMATION.  
 
THE NEXT OUTLOOK WILL BE ISSUED IN MID TO LATE OCTOBER.  
 

 
 
TERRY  
 
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