256  
FGUS73 KTOP 230357  
ESFTOP  
KSC003-027-029-031-041-059-061-111-117-131-139-149-157-161-177-  
197-201-DDHHMM-  
 
PROBABILISTIC HYDROLOGIC OUTLOOK  
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TOPEKA KS  
1055 PM CDT THU JUN 22 2017  
 
IN TABLE 1 BELOW...THE CURRENT (CS) AND HISTORICAL (HS) OR NORMAL  
PROBABILITIES OF EXCEEDING MINOR...MODERATE...AND MAJOR FLOOD STAGES  
ARE LISTED FOR THE VALID TIME PERIOD.  
 
CS VALUES INDICATE THE PROBABILITY OF REACHING A FLOOD CATEGORY  
BASED ON CURRENT CONDITIONS.  
 
HS VALUES INDICATE THE PROBABILITY OF REACHING A FLOOD CATEGORY  
BASED ON HISTORICAL OR NORMAL CONDITIONS.  
 
WHEN THE VALUE OF CS IS MORE THAN HS...THE PROBABILITY OF  
EXCEEDING THAT LEVEL IS HIGHER THAN NORMAL. WHEN THE VALUE OF CS IS  
LESS THAN HS...THE PROBABILITY OF EXCEEDING THAT LEVEL IS LOWER  
THAN NORMAL.  
 
   
..TABLE 1--PROBABILITIES FOR MINOR...MODERATE AND MAJOR FLOODING
 
 
VALID PERIOD: 06/24/2017 - 09/22/2017  
 
: CURRENT AND HISTORICAL  
: CHANCES OF EXCEEDING  
: FLOOD CATEGORIES  
: AS A PERCENTAGE (%)  
CATEGORICAL :  
FLOOD STAGES (FT) : MINOR MODERATE MAJOR  
LOCATION MINOR MOD MAJOR : CS HS CS HS CS HS  
-------- ----- ----- ----- : --- --- --- --- --- ---  
:BIG BLUE RIVER  
MARYSVILLE 35.0 38.2 43.0 : 14 15 11 12 <5 <5  
:LITTLE BLUE RIVER  
HOLLENBERG 19.0 19.4 45.0 : <5 <5 <5 <5 <5 <5  
:MILL CREEK  
WASHINGTON 18.0 19.0 35.0 : 27 25 24 23 <5 <5  
:LITTLE BLUE RIVER  
BARNES 16.0 33.0 38.0 : 23 17 <5 <5 <5 <5  
:BIG BLUE RIVER  
BLUE RAPIDS 26.0 52.0 68.0 : 57 44 <5 <5 <5 <5  
:BLACK VERMILLION RIVER  
FRANKFORT 19.0 27.5 40.5 : 45 44 <5 <5 <5 <5  
:FANCY CREEK  
RANDOLPH 16.0 24.0 40.0 : 24 20 7 9 <5 <5  
:CHAPMAN CREEK  
CHAPMAN 19.0 26.0 37.0 : 15 24 <5 <5 <5 <5  
:LYON CREEK  
JUNCTION CITY 21.0 35.0 39.0 : 22 22 <5 <5 <5 <5  
:SMOKY HILL RIVER  
JUNCTION CITY 22.0 32.0 44.0 : 7 9 <5 <5 <5 <5  
:KANSAS RIVER  
FT RILEY 21.0 26.0 33.0 : 8 9 5 7 <5 <5  
:WILDCAT CREEK  
MANHATTAN SCENIC 14.0 17.0 23.0 : 12 26 10 14 <5 <5  
:KANSAS RIVER  
MANHATTAN 18.0 26.0 42.0 : 9 10 <5 6 <5 <5  
WAMEGO 19.0 26.0 38.0 : 9 9 <5 5 <5 <5  
:VERMILLION CREEK  
LOUISVILLE 30.0 34.0 44.0 : 35 40 21 26 <5 <5  
:ROCK CREEK  
LOUISVILLE 27.0 33.0 43.0 : 14 12 <5 <5 <5 <5  
:KANSAS RIVER  
BELVUE 20.0 28.0 33.0 : 8 8 <5 <5 <5 <5  
:CROSS CREEK  
ROSSVILLE 25.0 29.0 31.0 : 10 12 <5 <5 <5 <5  
:MILL CREEK  
PAXICO 21.0 31.0 33.0 : 32 32 <5 <5 <5 <5  
:KANSAS RIVER  
TOPEKA 26.0 27.0 44.0 : 7 8 7 8 <5 <5  
:SOLDIER CREEK  
DELIA 26.0 26.5 29.5 : 13 12 11 12 <5 <5  
TOPEKA 4NW 29.0 34.0 40.0 : <5 <5 <5 <5 <5 <5  
:KANSAS RIVER  
LECOMPTON 17.0 23.8 38.0 : 18 15 <5 <5 <5 <5  
LAWRENCE 18.0 20.0 29.0 : 12 12 7 9 <5 <5  
:WAKARUSA RIVER  
LAWRENCE 4S 23.0 25.0 45.0 : 12 13 9 10 <5 <5  
:REPUBLICAN RIVER  
SCANDIA 10.0 13.0 15.0 : 10 7 <5 <5 <5 <5  
:BUFFALO CREEK  
JAMESTOWN 16.0 19.0 35.0 : 30 28 8 9 <5 <5  
:REPUBLICAN RIVER  
CONCORDIA 15.0 18.0 30.0 : 13 10 <5 <5 <5 <5  
:ELK CREEK  
CLYDE 14.0 22.0 36.0 : 9 8 <5 <5 <5 <5  
:REPUBLICAN RIVER  
CLAY CENTER 15.0 21.0 28.0 : 35 40 5 5 <5 <5  
:SOLOMON RIVER  
GLASCO 22.0 25.0 34.0 : 26 21 20 18 <5 8  
MINNEAPOLIS 26.0 30.0 38.0 : 9 11 6 7 <5 <5  
:SALT CREEK  
ADA 18.0 19.0 24.0 : 12 12 9 11 <5 <5  
:SOLOMON RIVER  
NILES 24.0 28.0 34.0 : 41 36 31 32 <5 <5  
:SALINE RIVER  
TESCOTT 25.0 29.0 32.0 : 31 33 27 28 <5 <5  
:SMOKY HILL RIVER  
ABILENE SAND SPRI 27.0 30.0 33.0 : 22 16 7 9 <5 <5  
:MUD CREEK  
ABILENE 15.0 27.0 33.0 : 10 11 <5 <5 <5 <5  
:SMOKY HILL RIVER  
ENTERPRISE 26.0 27.0 40.0 : 29 38 26 28 <5 <5  
:MARAIS DES CYGNES RIVER  
READING 19.0 21.0 45.0 : 32 32 25 24 <5 <5  
:SALT CREEK  
LYNDON 10.0 16.0 24.0 : 22 22 <5 <5 <5 <5  
:POTTAWATOMIE CREEK  
SCIPIO 23.0 25.0 38.0 : 48 46 44 40 <5 <5  
LANE 23.0 24.0 28.5 : 23 21 19 18 <5 <5  
:TURKEY CREEK  
SENECA 8NW 21.0 23.5 40.0 : 18 16 10 10 <5 <5  
:COTTONWOOD RIVER  
EMPORIA 20.0 24.0 32.0 : 32 33 22 25 <5 <5  
:NEOSHO RIVER  
AMERICUS 26.0 27.0 40.0 : 8 7 6 5 <5 <5  
EMPORIA 3NW 19.0 19.5 30.5 : 17 17 16 15 <5 <5  
NEOSHO RAPIDS 22.0 23.0 44.0 : 31 31 28 28 <5 <5  
BURLINGTON 27.0 40.0 45.0 : <5 <5 <5 <5 <5 <5  
LEROY 23.0 23.0 38.0 : 17 17 17 17 <5 <5  
 
LEGEND  
CS = CONDITIONAL SIMULATION (CURRENT OUTLOOK)  
HS = HISTORICAL SIMULATION  
FT = FEET  
 
IN TABLE 2 BELOW...THE 95 THROUGH 5 PERCENT COLUMNS INDICATE THE  
PROBABILITY OF EXCEEDING THE LISTED STAGE LEVELS (FT) FOR THE VALID  
TIME PERIOD.  
   
..TABLE 2--EXCEEDANCE PROBABILITIES
 
 
CHANCE OF EXCEEDING STAGES  
AT SPECIFIC LOCATIONS  
VALID PERIOD: 06/24/2017 - 09/22/2017  
LOCATION 95% 90% 75% 50% 25% 10% 5%  
-------- ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------  
:BIG BLUE RIVER  
MARYSVILLE 15.3 16.4 19.0 25.4 32.4 38.5 40.2  
:LITTLE BLUE RIVER  
HOLLENBERG 2.1 3.4 4.9 8.4 12.7 16.7 17.8  
:MILL CREEK  
WASHINGTON 2.1 2.6 5.2 11.6 18.6 22.8 29.4  
:LITTLE BLUE RIVER  
BARNES 3.3 4.6 7.4 11.2 15.2 20.8 22.7  
:BIG BLUE RIVER  
BLUE RAPIDS 18.2 19.6 21.6 29.6 35.4 40.2 43.2  
:BLACK VERMILLION RIVER  
FRANKFORT 3.4 3.6 7.1 18.0 25.0 26.5 27.1  
:FANCY CREEK  
RANDOLPH 6.2 6.2 6.5 9.0 15.1 23.0 26.0  
:CHAPMAN CREEK  
CHAPMAN 5.2 5.2 5.2 6.5 12.9 20.6 21.3  
:LYON CREEK  
JUNCTION CITY 5.9 5.9 7.1 11.8 17.6 26.7 34.4  
:SMOKY HILL RIVER  
JUNCTION CITY 5.9 5.9 6.9 12.2 17.9 20.2 22.8  
:KANSAS RIVER  
FT RILEY 9.0 9.0 10.4 12.2 15.2 18.4 26.7  
:WILDCAT CREEK  
MANHATTAN SCENIC 2.8 2.8 3.6 5.2 7.6 16.3 19.9  
:KANSAS RIVER  
MANHATTAN 8.5 8.5 9.9 11.6 14.6 17.2 23.6  
WAMEGO 6.7 6.7 7.8 12.6 14.4 18.0 24.7  
:VERMILLION CREEK  
LOUISVILLE 6.9 7.9 12.9 20.6 33.1 38.6 39.8  
:ROCK CREEK  
LOUISVILLE 8.8 8.8 9.3 11.7 21.2 28.4 29.8  
:KANSAS RIVER  
BELVUE 8.5 8.5 9.6 13.8 15.7 18.7 23.0  
:CROSS CREEK  
ROSSVILLE 7.6 7.6 10.1 12.7 20.2 25.1 26.9  
:MILL CREEK  
PAXICO 3.2 5.2 6.2 8.7 23.9 28.2 30.4  
:KANSAS RIVER  
TOPEKA 8.0 9.1 9.9 14.9 18.9 21.0 30.2  
:SOLDIER CREEK  
DELIA 7.1 7.4 10.1 15.7 23.9 27.0 27.9  
TOPEKA 4NW 0.9 1.5 6.1 9.6 17.6 20.3 23.8  
:KANSAS RIVER  
LECOMPTON 5.2 5.6 7.6 11.9 15.2 19.5 21.1  
LAWRENCE 9.8 9.9 11.5 14.2 16.3 18.3 21.1  
:WAKARUSA RIVER  
LAWRENCE 4S 7.5 7.5 7.5 15.0 19.3 24.4 27.9  
:REPUBLICAN RIVER  
SCANDIA 1.6 2.1 3.5 4.7 6.6 10.1 11.2  
:BUFFALO CREEK  
JAMESTOWN 5.2 5.4 9.6 12.4 16.8 18.4 19.6  
:REPUBLICAN RIVER  
CONCORDIA 5.5 5.7 7.2 9.1 11.5 15.5 16.9  
:ELK CREEK  
CLYDE 4.7 5.0 5.6 6.8 8.6 13.9 14.8  
:REPUBLICAN RIVER  
CLAY CENTER 7.9 8.3 10.8 13.4 17.1 20.3 21.0  
:SOLOMON RIVER  
GLASCO 11.1 11.1 11.1 11.1 23.2 28.8 31.2  
MINNEAPOLIS 7.5 7.5 7.5 7.5 23.2 24.8 30.7  
:SALT CREEK  
ADA 4.9 4.9 4.9 6.1 13.2 18.8 20.5  
:SOLOMON RIVER  
NILES 14.0 14.0 14.0 14.0 29.0 29.9 30.3  
:SALINE RIVER  
TESCOTT 10.8 10.8 10.8 12.2 30.2 31.3 31.6  
:SMOKY HILL RIVER  
ABILENE SAND SPRI 15.2 15.2 15.3 21.5 26.4 28.6 31.1  
:MUD CREEK  
ABILENE 1.5 1.5 1.5 4.9 11.9 14.8 17.2  
:SMOKY HILL RIVER  
ENTERPRISE 13.7 13.7 15.2 22.7 27.5 32.2 36.3  
:MARAIS DES CYGNES RIVER  
READING 2.3 2.3 4.1 11.4 21.0 24.7 25.7  
:SALT CREEK  
LYNDON 0.7 0.7 1.7 2.9 8.8 14.5 15.3  
:POTTAWATOMIE CREEK  
SCIPIO 3.3 3.3 11.4 17.7 26.0 27.0 27.5  
LANE 5.7 6.4 8.3 15.4 22.7 25.2 26.9  
:TURKEY CREEK  
SENECA 8NW 2.1 3.9 6.0 12.2 17.7 23.6 25.8  
:COTTONWOOD RIVER  
EMPORIA 3.1 4.0 5.7 12.0 23.7 25.3 25.9  
:NEOSHO RIVER  
AMERICUS 3.5 4.0 5.7 10.0 16.0 25.3 27.5  
EMPORIA 3NW 9.5 9.9 10.5 13.1 15.3 22.7 24.5  
NEOSHO RAPIDS 1.9 2.7 5.1 13.7 24.6 27.5 28.0  
BURLINGTON 9.0 9.0 10.1 14.2 16.9 19.1 20.0  
LEROY 6.2 6.2 9.7 14.9 19.2 26.7 28.4  
 
IN TABLE 3 BELOW...THE 95 THROUGH 5 PERCENT COLUMNS INDICATE THE  
PROBABILITY OF FALLING BELOW THE LISTED STAGE LEVELS (FT) FOR THE  
VALID TIME PERIOD.  
   
..TABLE 3--NONEXCEEDANCE PROBABILITIES
 
 
CHANCE OF FALLING BELOW STAGES  
AT SPECIFIC LOCATIONS  
VALID PERIOD: 06/24/2017 - 09/22/2017  
LOCATION 95% 90% 75% 50% 25% 10% 5%  
-------- ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------  
:BIG BLUE RIVER  
MARYSVILLE 11.9 11.7 11.5 11.4 11.3 11.2 11.2  
:LITTLE BLUE RIVER  
HOLLENBERG 2.0 1.8 1.0 1.0 1.0 1.0 1.0  
:MILL CREEK  
WASHINGTON 1.5 1.5 1.5 1.5 1.5 1.5 1.5  
:LITTLE BLUE RIVER  
BARNES 3.1 3.0 2.8 2.7 2.6 2.5 2.5  
:BIG BLUE RIVER  
BLUE RAPIDS 15.9 15.6 15.3 15.0 14.9 14.7 14.7  
:BLACK VERMILLION RIVER  
FRANKFORT 3.4 3.4 3.4 3.4 3.4 3.4 3.4  
:FANCY CREEK  
RANDOLPH 6.0 6.0 5.0 5.0 5.0 5.0 5.0  
:CHAPMAN CREEK  
CHAPMAN 4.8 4.7 4.6 4.6 4.5 4.5 4.5  
:LYON CREEK  
JUNCTION CITY 5.8 5.7 5.6 5.5 5.5 5.4 5.4  
:SMOKY HILL RIVER  
JUNCTION CITY 3.8 1.8 1.6 1.5 1.2 1.2 1.1  
:KANSAS RIVER  
FT RILEY 7.6 6.4 6.3 6.2 6.1 6.0 6.0  
:WILDCAT CREEK  
MANHATTAN SCENIC 2.8 2.7 2.6 2.6 2.5 2.5 2.5  
:KANSAS RIVER  
MANHATTAN 7.1 6.4 6.3 6.2 6.1 6.1 6.1  
WAMEGO 5.5 4.7 4.3 4.0 3.8 3.8 3.7  
:VERMILLION CREEK  
LOUISVILLE 6.9 6.8 6.7 6.6 6.5 6.5 6.5  
:ROCK CREEK  
LOUISVILLE 8.8 8.7 8.7 8.6 8.6 8.6 8.6  
:KANSAS RIVER  
BELVUE 7.5 6.3 6.0 5.7 5.4 5.3 5.2  
:CROSS CREEK  
ROSSVILLE 7.5 7.5 7.3 7.3 7.3 7.3 7.3  
:MILL CREEK  
PAXICO 3.1 2.9 2.6 2.5 2.4 2.3 2.2  
:KANSAS RIVER  
TOPEKA 7.0 5.5 5.2 4.8 4.6 4.5 4.4  
:SOLDIER CREEK  
DELIA 6.8 6.7 6.6 6.5 6.5 6.5 6.5  
TOPEKA 4NW 0.4 0.3 0.2 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1  
:KANSAS RIVER  
LECOMPTON 4.2 2.8 2.5 2.1 1.8 1.6 1.5  
LAWRENCE 8.8 7.9 7.8 7.5 7.4 7.3 7.3  
:WAKARUSA RIVER  
LAWRENCE 4S 4.4 4.4 4.4 4.3 4.3 4.3 4.3  
:REPUBLICAN RIVER  
SCANDIA 0.4 0.4 0.4 0.4 0.4 0.4 0.3  
:BUFFALO CREEK  
JAMESTOWN 4.5 4.2 4.0 3.8 3.6 3.5 3.4  
:REPUBLICAN RIVER  
CONCORDIA 5.2 5.2 5.2 5.0 4.9 4.8 4.7  
:ELK CREEK  
CLYDE 4.6 4.6 4.6 4.6 4.6 4.6 4.5  
:REPUBLICAN RIVER  
CLAY CENTER 7.4 7.4 7.3 7.2 6.9 6.8 6.8  
:SOLOMON RIVER  
GLASCO 5.1 5.0 4.7 4.5 4.4 4.4 4.4  
MINNEAPOLIS 3.0 2.8 2.5 2.4 2.3 2.3 2.2  
:SALT CREEK  
ADA 4.7 4.6 4.5 4.4 4.3 4.3 4.3  
:SOLOMON RIVER  
NILES 6.2 5.7 5.1 4.8 4.5 4.4 4.4  
:SALINE RIVER  
TESCOTT 7.6 6.9 6.5 6.1 5.8 5.7 5.5  
:SMOKY HILL RIVER  
ABILENE SAND SPRI 11.9 8.9 8.4 8.1 7.3 7.1 7.1  
:MUD CREEK  
ABILENE 1.5 1.5 1.5 1.5 1.5 1.5 1.5  
:SMOKY HILL RIVER  
ENTERPRISE 9.7 7.6 7.3 7.1 6.7 6.6 6.5  
:MARAIS DES CYGNES RIVER  
READING 2.3 2.3 2.2 2.2 2.2 2.2 2.2  
:SALT CREEK  
LYNDON 0.6 0.6 0.6 0.5 0.5 0.5 0.5  
:POTTAWATOMIE CREEK  
SCIPIO 3.2 3.2 3.1 3.1 3.1 3.1 3.1  
LANE 5.7 5.7 5.7 5.7 5.7 5.6 5.6  
:TURKEY CREEK  
SENECA 8NW 1.4 1.4 1.3 1.2 1.1 1.1 1.1  
 
THESE LONG-RANGE PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOKS CONTAIN FORECAST VALUES THAT  
ARE CALCULATED USING MULTIPLE SEASON SCENARIOS FROM 30 OR MORE YEARS  
OF CLIMATOLOGICAL DATA...INCLUDING CURRENT CONDITIONS OF THE  
RIVER...SOIL MOISTURE...SNOW COVER...AND 30 TO 90 DAY LONG-RANGE  
OUTLOOKS OF TEMPERATURE AND PRECIPITATION. BY PROVIDING A RANGE OF  
PROBABILITIES...THE LEVEL OF RISK ASSOCIATED WITH LONG-RANGE PLANNING  
DECISIONS CAN BE DETERMINED. THESE PROBABILISTIC FORECASTS ARE PART  
OF THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE'S ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION  
SERVICE.  
 
VISIT OUR WEB SITE WEATHER.GOV/TOP FOR MORE WEATHER AND WATER  
INFORMATION.  
 
THE NEXT OUTLOOK WILL BE ISSUED AROUND JULY 28, 2017.  
 

 
 
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