653  
FNUS73 KEAX 171538  
FWSEAX  
 
SPOT FORECAST FOR MARK TWAIN LAKE...U.S.ARMY CORPS OF ENGINEERS  
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO  
1038 AM CDT MON APR 17 2017  
 
FORECAST IS BASED ON IGNITION TIME OF 0900 CDT ON APRIL 18.  
IF CONDITIONS BECOME UNREPRESENTATIVE...CONTACT THE NATIONAL WEATHER  
SERVICE.  
 
PLEASE CONTACT OUR OFFICE AT 1-800-438-0596, IF YOU HAVE QUESTIONS  
OR CONCERNS WITH THIS FORECAST.  
   
DISCUSSION
 
 
DRY CONDITIONS MONDAY WILL GIVE WAY TO AN ACTIVE PATTERN BEGINNING  
TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY. THE BEST CHANCE FOR WIDESPREAD  
PRECIPITATION WILL BEGIN WEDNESDAY, THOUGH ISOLATED TO SCATTERED  
RAIN SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE BEGINNING TUESDAY  
MORNING. THIS ACTIVITY WILL LIKELY BE OFF AND ON THROUGHOUT THE  
AFTERNOON BEFORE BECOMING MORE WIDESPREAD EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING.  
GUSTY WINDS MAY ACCOMMODATE ANY STORMS WHICH DEVELOP TUESDAY  
AFTERNOON. LOW MIXING HEIGHTS TUESDAY MORNING WILL INCREASE TO  
3 KFT DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS WHILE RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES  
REMAIN NEAR 60 TO 80 PERCENT. DRY CONDITIONS WILL RETURN TO THE  
AREA THURSDAY WITH 10 TO 15 MPH NORTHERLY SURFACE WINDS EXPECTED  
DURING THAT TIME.  
   
TUESDAY
 
 
SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY CLOUDY (65-75 PERCENT). SLIGHT CHANCE OF  
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IN THE AFTERNOON.  
CWR.................1 PERCENT.  
TEMPERATURE.........58 AT IGNITION...MAX 77.  
RH..................86 PERCENT AT IGNITION...MIN 58 PERCENT.  
WIND (20 FT)........  
SLOPE/VALLEY.......WINDS SOUTH AT 6 MPH AT IGNITION...OTHERWISE  
SOUTH WINDS 5 TO 9 MPH. GUSTY AND ERRATIC WINDS  
EXPECTED NEAR THUNDERSTORMS IN THE AFTERNOON.  
MIXING HEIGHT.......900 FT AGL AT IGNITION...OTHERWISE 700-2200 FT  
AGL INCREASING TO 2700-4300 FT AGL IN THE  
AFTERNOON.  
TRANSPORT WINDS.....SOUTH 15 TO 18 MPH.  
HAINES INDEX........4 OR LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME DOMINATED  
FIRE GROWTH AT IGNITION...MAX 4.  
 
TIME (CDT) 9AM 10A 11A 12P 1PM 2PM 3PM 4PM 5PM  
SKY (%).........71 73 75 78 80 77 71 68 70  
WEATHER COV..... SCH SCH SCH SCH SCH  
WEATHER TYPE.... RW RW RW RW RW  
TSTM COV........ SCH SCH SCH SCH SCH  
CWR.............0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0  
TEMP............58 61 64 67 69 72 75 77 77  
RH..............86 81 75 73 70 66 62 58 58  
20 FT WIND DIR..S S S S S S S S S  
20 FT WIND SPD..6 7 8 9 9 9 9 9 8  
20 FT WIND GUST.10 10 15 15 15 15 15 15 15  
MIX HGT (KFT)...0.9 1.2 1.6 2.2 2.7 3.4 3.9 4.3 4.2  
TRANSP WIND DIR.S S S SW SW SW S S S  
TRANSP WIND SPD.16 16 16 15 15 16 17 18 18  
HAINES INDEX....4 4 4 4 3 3 3 4 4  
   
TUESDAY NIGHT
 
 
SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY CLOUDY (70-80 PERCENT). SLIGHT CHANCE OF  
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS EARLY IN THE EVENING,  
THEN CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.  
CWR.................1 PERCENT INCREASING TO 19 PERCENT EARLY IN THE  
EVENING.  
TEMPERATURE.........MIN 62.  
RH..................MAX 93 PERCENT.  
WIND (20 FT)........  
SLOPE/VALLEY.......SOUTH WINDS 5 TO 7 MPH. GUSTY AND ERRATIC WINDS  
EXPECTED NEAR THUNDERSTORMS.  
MIXING HEIGHT.......3500-3900 FT AGL EARLY IN THE EVENING.  
TRANSPORT WINDS.....SOUTH AROUND 18 MPH EARLY IN THE EVENING.  
HAINES INDEX........4 OR LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME DOMINATED  
FIRE GROWTH EARLY IN THE EVENING.  
 
TIME (CDT) 6PM 7PM 8PM 9PM 10P 11P MID 1AM 2AM 3AM 4AM 5AM  
SKY (%).........73 75 75 76 76 77 77 77 76 75 75 73  
WEATHER COV.....SCH CHC CHC CHC CHC CHC CHC CHC CHC CHC CHC CHC  
WEATHER TYPE....RW RW RW RW RW RW RW RW RW RW RW RW  
TSTM COV........SCH CHC CHC CHC CHC CHC CHC CHC CHC CHC CHC CHC  
CWR.............0 20 M M M M M M M M M M  
TEMP............76 74 72 70 68 67 66 66 65 65 64 63  
RH..............58 62 66 71 76 78 84 84 87 84 87 90  
20 FT WIND DIR..S S S S S S S S S S S S  
20 FT WIND SPD..7 6 6 5 5 5 6 6 6 6 6 5  
20 FT WIND GUST.10 10  
MIX HGT (KFT)...3.9 3.5 M M M M M M M M M M  
TRANSP WIND DIR.S S M M M M M M M M M M  
TRANSP WIND SPD.18 18 M M M M M M M M M M  
HAINES INDEX....4 M M M M M M M M M M M  
   
WEDNESDAY
 
 
SKY/WEATHER.........PARTLY SUNNY (50-60 PERCENT). CHANCE OF SHOWERS  
AND THUNDERSTORMS EARLY IN THE MORNING, THEN  
SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IN  
THE MORNING.  
CWR.................MISSING.  
TEMPERATURE.........MAX 82.  
RH..................MIN 49 PERCENT.  
WIND (20 FT)........  
SLOPE/VALLEY.......SOUTH WINDS 5 TO 14 MPH WITH GUSTS TO AROUND 30  
MPH INCREASING TO 14 TO 15 MPH WITH GUSTS TO  
AROUND 30 MPH EARLY IN THE AFTERNOON. GUSTY AND  
ERRATIC WINDS EXPECTED NEAR THUNDERSTORMS IN  
THE MORNING.  
MIXING HEIGHT.......MISSING.  
TRANSPORT WINDS.....  
HAINES INDEX........MISSING.  
 
TIME (CDT) 6AM 7AM 8AM 9AM 10A 11A 12P 1PM 2PM 3PM 4PM 5PM  
SKY (%).........71 70 66 60 57 58 60 61 55 44 38 43  
WEATHER COV.....CHC SCH SCH SCH SCH SCH SCH  
WEATHER TYPE....RW RW RW RW RW RW RW  
TSTM COV........CHC SCH SCH SCH SCH SCH SCH  
CWR.............M M M M M M M M M M M M  
TEMP............62 62 64 66 70 72 75 77 79 81 82 82  
RH..............93 93 90 84 76 71 64 60 56 53 51 49  
20 FT WIND DIR..S S S S S S S S S S S S  
20 FT WIND SPD..5 5 6 8 10 12 13 14 15 15 15 14  
20 FT WIND GUST. 10 15 20 25 30 30 30 30 30 30  
MIX HGT (KFT)...M M M M M M M M M M M M  
TRANSP WIND DIR.M M M M M M M M M M M M  
TRANSP WIND SPD.M M M M M M M M M M M M  
HAINES INDEX....M M M M M M M M M M M M  
 

 
FORECASTER...WELSH  
REQUESTED BY...SHELLY HOWALD  
TYPE OF REQUEST...PRESCRIBED  
.TAG 1707026.0/EAX  
.EMAIL RACHELLE.R.HOWALD@USACE.ARMY.MIL  
 
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