451  
FNUS73 KICT 161423  
FWSICT  
 
SPOT FORECAST FOR PATROL AND MOP-UP...NATIONAL PARK SERVICE  
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS  
823 AM CST THU NOV 16 2017  
 
FORECAST IS BASED ON IGNITION TIME OF 0900 CST ON NOVEMBER 16.  
IF CONDITIONS BECOME UNREPRESENTATIVE...CONTACT THE NATIONAL WEATHER  
SERVICE.  
 
PLEASE CONTACT US VIA NWS CHAT, 800MHZ RADIO OR PHONE IF YOU HAVE  
QUESTIONS OR CONCERNS WITH THIS FORECAST.  
   
DISCUSSION
 
 
THERE WILL BE SOME FIRE DANGER CONCERNS OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS.  
 
TODAY (THURSDAY), WINDS WILL PRIMARILY BE FROM THE  
SOUTH/SOUTHEAST AND GRADUALLY INCREASE THROUGHOUT THE DAY AND INTO  
THE EVENING HOURS BETWEEN 10 AND 20MPH, WITH GUSTS UP TO 25MPH.  
THE MINIMUM RH WILL BE AROUND 40% DURING THE EARLY AFTERNOON, BUT  
WILL CLIMB BACK INTO THE 60-80% RANGE THIS EVENING AND INTO  
TONIGHT. SOME LOW CLOUDS AND PATCHY DRIZZLE IS POSSIBLE IN THE  
OVERNIGHT HOURS ON THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY MORNING, ALTHOUGH NO  
SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL ACCUMULATION IS EXPECTED.  
 
WINDS ON FRIDAY WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE 15 TO 25 MPH RANGE WITH  
HIGHER GUSTS. RH'S ON FRI AFTERNOON WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE  
30-45% RANGE WITH THE LOWER VALUES WEST OF I-135. TEMPERATURES ON  
FRIDAY WILL ALSO BE SIGNIFICANTLY WARMER, WITH AN EXPECTED HIGH  
AROUND 70 DEGREES. THIS WILL RESULT IN VERY HIGH GRASSLAND FIRE  
DANGER FOR MOST OF SOUTH CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST KANSAS.  
 
FIRE DANGER CONCERNS WILL RAMP UP FOR SAT AS WINDS FLIP AROUND TO  
THE NORTHWEST BUT INCREASE TO 20-25 MPH RANGE WITH GUSTS TO 35  
MPH. RH'S SAT AFTERNOON WILL BE IN THE 25 TO 35% RANGE WITH THE  
LOWER VALUES ALONG AND WEST OF I-135. SO OUT OF THE NEXT 3 DAYS,  
SATURDAY LOOKS LIKE THE BIGGEST THREAT.  
 
   
TODAY
 
 
SKY/WEATHER.........SUNNY (20-30 PERCENT).  
CWR.................0 PERCENT.  
MAX TEMPERATURE.....AROUND 58.  
MIN HUMIDITY........40 PERCENT.  
WIND (20 FT)........SOUTHEAST WINDS 5 TO 14 MPH WITH GUSTS TO  
AROUND 25 MPH.  
MIXING HEIGHT.......300-2000 FT AGL INCREASING TO 1100-2900 FT AGL  
IN THE AFTERNOON.  
MIXING WINDS........SOUTHEAST 8 TO 17 MPH INCREASING TO 20 TO 24  
MPH LATE IN THE MORNING.  
HAINES INDEX........4 TO 5 OR LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME  
DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH TO OR MODERATE POTENTIAL  
FOR LARGE PLUME DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH.  
 
TIME (CST) 9AM 10A 11A 12P 1PM 2PM 3PM 4PM 5PM  
SKY (%).........24 20 17 13 15 17 19 27 34  
WEATHER COV.....  
WEATHER TYPE....  
TSTM COV........  
CWR.............0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0  
TEMP............40 44 49 53 57 58 58 56 53  
RH..............71 64 54 47 42 40 42 47 55  
20 FT WIND DIR..SE SE SE S S S S S SE  
20 FT WIND SPD..6 8 10 10 11 11 11 10 8  
20 FT WIND GUST.10 15 20 25 25 25 25 20 15  
MIX HGT (KFT)...0.3 0.9 1.5 2.0 2.3 2.6 2.9 2.0 1.1  
MIXING WIND DIR.SE SE SE S S S S S SE  
MIXING WIND SPD.15 17 20 21 23 24 24 23 21  
HAINES INDEX....4 4 4 4 4 5 5 4 4  
   
TONIGHT
 
 
SKY/WEATHER.........PARTLY CLOUDY (35-45 PERCENT) THEN BECOMING  
MOSTLY CLOUDY (75-85 PERCENT). PATCHY DRIZZLE  
AFTER MIDNIGHT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF DRIZZLE EARLY  
IN THE MORNING.  
CWR.................0 PERCENT.  
MIN TEMPERATURE.....AROUND 50.  
MAX HUMIDITY........88 PERCENT.  
WIND (20 FT)........SOUTH WINDS 8 TO 15 MPH.  
MIXING HEIGHT.......300-900 FT AGL.  
MIXING WINDS........SOUTH 20 TO 29 MPH INCREASING TO AROUND 30 MPH  
EARLY IN THE MORNING.  
HAINES INDEX........2 TO 3 OR VERY LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME  
DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH.  
 
TIME (CST) 6PM 7PM 8PM 9PM 10P 11P MID 1AM 2AM 3AM 4AM 5AM  
SKY (%).........42 55 67 80 87 93 100 100 100 100 97 93  
WEATHER COV..... PTY PTY PTY SCH SCH SCH  
WEATHER TYPE.... DZL DZL DZL DZL DZL DZL  
TSTM COV........  
CWR.............0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0  
TEMP............51 50 50 50 51 52 53 53 54 55 56 56  
RH..............63 69 72 73 74 75 76 79 81 84 85 85  
20 FT WIND DIR..SE SE S S S S S S S S S S  
20 FT WIND SPD..6 6 7 8 9 9 10 10 10 11 11 12  
20 FT WIND GUST.15 15 15 15 20 20 20 20 25 25 25 25  
MIX HGT (KFT)...0.3 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.4 0.6 0.8 0.8 0.8 0.9 0.9 0.9  
MIXING WIND DIR.SE SE S S S S S S S S S S  
MIXING WIND SPD.20 21 22 24 25 25 26 28 28 29 30 30  
HAINES INDEX....3 3 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 3  
   
FRIDAY
 
 
SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY CLOUDY (70-80 PERCENT). SLIGHT CHANCE OF  
DRIZZLE IN THE MORNING.  
CWR.................0 PERCENT.  
MAX TEMPERATURE.....AROUND 71.  
MIN HUMIDITY........51 PERCENT.  
WIND (20 FT)........SOUTHWEST WINDS 11 TO 17 MPH. GUSTS UP TO 30  
MPH.  
MIXING HEIGHT.......800-2200 FT AGL.  
MIXING WINDS........SOUTHWEST 28 TO 35 MPH DECREASING TO 20 TO 24  
MPH LATE IN THE AFTERNOON.  
HAINES INDEX........3 TO 4 OR VERY LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME  
DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH TO OR LOW POTENTIAL FOR  
LARGE PLUME DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH.  
 
TIME (CST) 6AM 7AM 8AM 9AM 10A 11A 12P 1PM 2PM 3PM 4PM 5PM  
SKY (%).........90 87 81 78 75 69 66 63 59 57 59 63  
WEATHER COV.....SCH SCH SCH SCH SCH SCH  
WEATHER TYPE....DZL DZL DZL DZL DZL DZL  
TSTM COV........  
CWR.............0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0  
TEMP............56 57 58 60 63 65 68 70 71 71 69 67  
RH..............88 87 85 80 74 68 62 56 52 51 53 57  
20 FT WIND DIR..S S S S S S S S SW SW SW S  
20 FT WIND SPD..12 12 13 13 14 14 14 14 13 12 10 9  
20 FT WIND GUST.30 30 30 30 30 30 30 30 30 30 25 20  
MIX HGT (KFT)...0.8 1.0 1.2 1.4 1.6 1.9 2.1 2.2 2.2 2.2 1.9 1.6  
MIXING WIND DIR.S S S S S S SW SW SW SW SW SW  
MIXING WIND SPD.31 32 32 33 35 35 33 31 28 24 22 20  
HAINES INDEX....3 3 4 4 4 4 4 4 4 4 4 4  
 

 
FORECASTER...VAUGHAN  
REQUESTED BY...DEON STEINLE TYPE OF  
REQUEST...PRESCRIBED  
.TAG 1718905.0/ICT  
.EMAIL DEON_STEINLE@FWS.GOV  
 
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