173  
FXUS63 KDDC 260607  
AFDDDC  
 
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION  
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS  
107 AM CDT SUN JUN 26 2016  
   
..UPDATED AVIATION AND SHORT TERM SECTIONS
 
 
   
SHORT TERM
 
(TODAY AND TONIGHT)  
ISSUED AT 103 AM CDT SUN JUN 26 2016  
 
A MESOSCALE CONVECTIVE SYSTEM (MCS) WAS ONGOING AS OF 0540 UTC, BUT  
IT HAS TRANSITIONED MORE TO A POST-STRATIFORM EVENT PER THE LATEST  
RADAR TRENDS. RADAR ECHOES IN THE POST-STRATIFORM REGION WERE FAIRLY  
WIDESPREAD ACROSS SOUTHWEST KANSAS, AND THE ENTIRE AREA WAS MOVING  
EXTREMELY SLOWLY. THIS SHOULD SLOWLY DISSOLVE THROUGH 1200 UTC, BUT  
A REMNANT MESOSCALE CONVECTIVE VORT (MCV) CENTER WILL LIKELY PERSIST  
THROUGH THE DAY SUNDAY. THIS, COMBINED WITH THE REMNANT SURFACE  
FRONT AND ABUNDANT MOISTURE ALREADY IN PLACE (BOTH LOWER AND MID  
TROPOSPHERIC) WILL LIKELY INITIATE NEW THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY ONCE  
LATE JUNE INSOLATION DEEPENS AND DESTABILIZES THE BOUNDARY LAYER. WE  
WILL RAMP THE POPS BACK UP TO 40-55 PERCENT GENERALLY  
ALONG/SOUTHEAST OF HIGHWAY 54. THE PREPONDERANCE OF THE MODEL  
SOLUTIONS ARE FAIRLY IN LINE WITH THIS THINKING.  
 
THE LOW LEVEL FRONTOGENESIS WILL NOT BE STRONG LIKE YESTERDAY, SO  
IT IS MUCH MORE UNCLEAR HOW THE EVOLUTION WILL BE AFTER CONVECTIVE  
INITIATION, AND EXACTLY WHICH AREAS WILL SEE THE GREATEST CHANCE  
FOR HEAVY RAINFALL. THE SYNOPTIC PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL BE  
EXTREMELY WEAK ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS, SO IT WILL BE DIFFICULT  
TO FIND A COHERENT FOCUS FOR CONVECTIVE INITIATION. THE LACK OF  
WIND FLOW IN THE LOWER TROPOSPHERE (AND EVEN THE MID TROPOSPHERE)  
WILL SIGNIFICANTLY LIMIT SEVERE WEATHER AND WILL PROBABLY PRECLUDE  
MCS DEVELOPMENT. AS SUCH, WE WILL NOT CARRY VERY HIGH POPS IN THE  
TONIGHT PERIOD ACROSS A GOOD PORTION OF SOUTHWEST AND WEST CENTRAL  
KANSAS. THAT SAID, A SMALL MCS MAY DEVELOP WELL TO THE NORTHWEST  
ACROSS NORTHEAST CO/SOUTHWEST NE WHICH WOULD DRIFT SOUTHEAST INTO  
FAR NORTHWEST KS. BY THE TIME IT EVEN REACHES NORTHWEST KS,  
THOUGH, IT WILL BE QUITE LATE IN THE EVENING, AND THERE IS LITTLE  
INDICATION THAT IT WILL PROGRESS MUCH FARTHER SOUTH THAN THAT  
GIVEN THE POOR DOWNSTREAM INFLOW.  
   
LONG TERM
 
(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)  
ISSUED AT 100 PM CDT SAT JUN 25 2016  
 
EVEN THOUGH THE FLOW ALOFT WILL REMAIN FAIRLY WEAK EARLY IN THE PERIOD,  
THUNDERSTORM CHANCES WILL CONTINUE INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK AS MEDIUM RANGE  
MODELS INDICATE THE FRONT FROM THE PASSAGE LATE SATURDAY STALLING OUT  
GENERALLY ACROSS THE TEXAS PANHANDLE INTO NORTHWEST OKLAHOMA BY SUNDAY  
EVENING. BARRING THE POSITIONING OF THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY, A SIMILAR  
SET UP FROM THE DAY BEFORE WILL BE PRESENT WITH INCREASED FORCING  
NEAR THE BOUNDARY AND AMPLE MOISTURE/INSTABILITY ALONG AND SOUTHEAST  
OF THE BOUNDARY ITSELF. THUNDERSTORMS ARE LIKELY SUNDAY EVENING IN  
THE VICINITY OF THE BOUNDARY WITH THE BEST CHANCE FOR PRECIP ACROSS  
SOUTH CENTRAL KANSAS. THUNDERSTORM CHANCES RETURN TO PORTIONS OF  
WESTERN KANSAS LATE MONDAY AS A SOUTHEASTERLY UPSLOPE FLOW RE-  
ESTABLISHES ACROSS THE WESTERN HIGH PLAINS. INCREASING INSTABILITY  
WITH MOISTURE DRAWING BACK TO THE WEST AND STEEP LOW/MID LEVEL LAPSE  
RATES WILL SET THE STAGE FOR THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT LEE OF THE  
ROCKY FRONT RANGE MONDAY AFTERNOON WITH THE POSSIBILITY OF STORMS  
DRIFTING EASTWARD INTO WESTERN KANSAS MONDAY NIGHT. A SIMILAR SET  
UP EXISTS TUESDAY AS A NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT DEVELOPS ACROSS THE  
HIGH PLAINS WHILE A SOUTHEASTERLY UPSLOPE FLOW PERSISTS IN THE  
LOWER LEVELS. CONSIDERING LITTLE CHANGE IS EXPECTED TO THE GENERAL  
AIR MASS THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK, LOOK FOR MORE SEASONAL  
TEMPERATURES FOR LOWS AND HIGHS ACROSS THE WESTERN HIGH PLAINS  
THROUGH AT LEAST WEDNESDAY.  
 

 
   
AVIATION
 
(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY NIGHT)  
ISSUED AT 103 AM CDT SUN JUN 26 2016  
 
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY AROUND THE DDC TERMINAL EARLY IN THE PERIOD  
WILL TRANSITION MORE TO RAIN SHOWERS IN THE 07-10Z TIME FRAME. WE  
KEPT HYS TERMINAL DRY, HOWEVER THE REMNANT SHOWERS FROM THE MCS  
MAY STILL CREEP UP INTO THE HYS AREA IN THE 08-12Z TIME FRAME  
BEFORE DYING OFF. WE WILL AMEND HYS SHOULD THIS OCCUR. A NEW ROUND  
OF THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY WILL LIKELY DEVELOP MID TO LATE AFTERNOON  
POTENTIALLY IMPACTING GCK AND DDC, SO WE WILL CARRY A PROB30 GROUP  
LATE IN THE AFTERNOON AT THESE TERMINALS. OUTSIDE OF THUNDERSTORM  
ACTIVITY, PREVAILING CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE TO BE VFR WITH LIGHT  
WINDS AT LESS THAN 8 KNOTS.  
 

 
   
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
 
 
DDC 67 89 68 91 / 70 30 30 30  
GCK 66 88 67 90 / 80 20 20 30  
EHA 64 87 66 90 / 100 30 20 30  
LBL 64 89 67 91 / 80 30 30 30  
HYS 67 88 68 91 / 50 20 20 20  
P28 71 92 70 92 / 30 50 50 30  
 

 
   
DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
 
 
NONE.  

 
 

 
 
SHORT TERM...UMSCHEID  
LONG TERM...JJOHNSON  
AVIATION...UMSCHEID  
 
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