059  
FXUS63 KDDC 300513  
AFDDDC  
 
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION  
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS  
1213 AM CDT MON MAY 30 2016  
   
..UPDATED AVIATION DISCUSSION
 
 
   
SHORT TERM
 
(THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY)  
ISSUED AT 333 PM CDT SUN MAY 29 2016  
 
POTENTIALLY MORE ACTIVE LATE AFTERNOON TO EVENING THAN WAS  
PREVIOUSLY THOUGHT COULD PREVAIL OVER SOUTHWEST INTO CENTRAL KS.  
WHILE THE OVERALL UPPER PATTERN IS DOMINATED BY WEAK SHORTWAVE  
RIDGING OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS AND SPLIT FLOW BETWEEN THE  
SUBTROPICAL AND POLAR JETS, THE MESOSCALE IS DRIVING CONVECTIVE  
EVOLUTION BEYOND WHAT THE PATTERN WOULD NORMAL STIPULATE.  
SPECIFICALLY, A WEAK FRONT OVER WESTERN OKLAHOMA INTO THE NORTHERN  
TEXAS PANHANDLE, HAS PERMITTED NEAR CONTINUAL CONVECTION ACROSS THIS  
AREA. A REMNANT OUTFLOW BOUNDARY MOVING WEST/NORTHWEST FROM THIS  
AREA OF PRECIPITATION HAS ALLOWED DEEP CONVECTION TO DEVELOP ON THE  
FRINGE OF THE CIRRUS PLUME WHERE STRONG SOLAR INSOLATION HAS  
PRODUCED STRONG INSTABILITY AND WEAK CAPPING. WHILE SHEAR PROFILES  
ARE ON THE WEAKER SIDE ON A LARGER SCALE, A LOCAL BACKING OF WINDS  
NORTH OF THE REMNANT OUTFLOW IS GENERATING ENOUGH SHEAR TO RESULT  
IN WEAK ROTATING STORMS. GIVEN THIS, LOWER END SEVERE CONVECTION  
WITH HAIL UP TO HALF DOLLAR IN SIZE WILL BE POSSIBLE THROUGH THE  
AFTERNOON HOURS.  
 
MOVING INTO THE EVENING HOURS, THE QUESTION GOING FORWARD IS  
WHETHER THIS CURRENT CONVECTION WILL GENERATE A LARGE ENOUGH COLD  
POOL TO SUSTAIN AS A SMALL FORWARD PROPAGATING MCS. CURRENT  
THINKING IS THAT IT WILL AND HAVE ADJUSTED PRECIPITATION CHANCES  
TOWARD AN SMALL MCS ROLLING INTO CENTRAL KS DURING THE EVENING  
HOURS. MARGINAL SEVERE THREAT WILL REMAIN BUT SWITCH TO A MORE  
OUTFLOW DOMINATED MODE.  
 
REMAINDER OF TONIGHT INTO EARLY ON MONDAY WILL THEN TURN QUIET AS  
WEAK RIDGING TAKES HOLD OF THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS IN ADVANCE OF AN  
UPPER TROUGH DIGGING INTO THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST. THIS WILL BRING  
OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE 50S TO NEAR 60. STRONG SOLAR INSOLATION WILL  
THEN DEVELOP ON MONDAY WITH RESULTANT HIGHS IN THE 80S.  
   
LONG TERM
 
(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)  
ISSUED AT 333 PM CDT SUN MAY 29 2016  
 
ATTENTION THEN SHIFTS TOWARD LATE MONDAY AFTERNOON TO EVENING AS  
POSITIVELY TILTED WAVE IN THE SOUTHERN STREAM, PHASES WITH A  
STRONGER NORTHERN STREAM SYSTEM RIPPLING ALONG THE CANADIAN BORDER.  
AS THIS WAVE APPROACHES THE CENTRAL PLAINS, THE LEE TROUGH WILL  
DEEPEN ENOUGH TO GENERATE SOME CONVECTION BY LATE AFTERNOON TO  
EVENING GENERALLY WEST OF HIGHWAY 283, ALTHOUGH DEEP LAYER SHEAR  
WILL BE MARGINAL ENOUGH TO PRECLUDE WIDESPREAD SEVERE OVER  
SOUTHWEST KS. WITH THAT STATED, THIS CONVECTION MAY GENERATE  
ENOUGH OF A COLD POOL TO CREATE A FORWARD PROPAGATING MCS, MAINLY  
NORTH OF HIGHWAY 96 DURING THE EVENING HOURS AS A 40-KT LLJ  
DEVELOPS. IN ADDITION, THIS CONVECTION WILL LIKELY HELP PUSH A  
PACIFIC FRONT INTO WESTERN KS DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS ALTHOUGH  
SUSPECT THE FRONTAL PASSAGE WILL INITIALLY BE RELATIVELY BENIGN  
BEHIND ANY MCS. NONETHELESS, THIS SETS THE STAGE FOR A POTENTIALLY  
WET AND COOL DAY ON TUESDAY AS LARGER SCALE FORCING FROM THE MID  
TO UPPER WAVE INTERACTS WITH THIS FRONT TO GENERATE WIDESPREAD  
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS AFTER SUNRISE. BEST CHANCE FOR  
PRECIPITATION APPEARS TO BE CONFINED TO THE MORNING TO AFTERNOON  
HOURS AS A WORKED OVER AIRMASS WITH THIS PRECIPITATION SHOULD  
HELP PUSH THE FRONT FARTHER SOUTH BY MID EVENING.  
 
WEDNESDAY IS THEN SHAPING UP TO BE A COOL BUT GENERALLY DRY DAY  
ACROSS SOUTHWEST INTO CENTRAL KS AS SUBSIDENCE BEHIND THE EXITING  
WAVE LEAVES A STABLE DOME OF HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS THE AREA. DESPITE  
A DECENT DAY OF HEATING, TEMPERATURES WILL STAY IN THE 70S FOR  
AFTERNOON HIGHS. BEYOND WEDNESDAY, THE ECMWF AND GFS BEGIN TO FORM A  
BLOCKING PATTERN OVER THE WESTERN HALF OF THE COUNTRY WITH AN OMEGA  
BLOCK RIDGE OVER THE ROCKIES. AN ANTICYCLONIC WAVE BREAK IS SHOWN  
TO FORM OVER THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE GREAT PLAINS BUT THIS SHOULD  
STAY FAR ENOUGH SOUTH TO LEAVE GENERALLY DRY CONDITIONS OVER MOST  
OF THE CENTRAL PLAINS. EXPECT TEMPERATURES TO REBOUND BACK NEAR TO  
ABOVE SEASONAL NORMALS FOR HIGHS.  
 

 
   
AVIATION
 
(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY NIGHT)  
ISSUED AT 1213 AM CDT MON MAY 30 2016  
 
FAIRLY BENIGN WEATHER CAN BE EXPECTED THROUGH MUCH OF THIS PERIOD  
WITH VFR CONDITIONS PREVAILING. SOUTHERLY WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO  
INCREASE DURING THE DAYTIME ON MONDAY WITH GUSTS TO AROUND 20  
KNOTS OR SO EXPECTED. SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO  
DEVELOP OVER FAR EASTERN COLORADO INTO NORTHWEST KANSAS LATE  
MONDAY AFTERNOON AND MOVE EAST ACROSS WESTERN KANSAS MONDAY  
EVENING. WITH THAT IN MIND, WILL CARRY VCTS AT THE GARDEN CITY  
AND HAYS TERMINALS LATE IN THE PERIOD.  
 

 
   
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
 
 
DDC 58 83 60 77 / 20 20 30 60  
GCK 57 84 58 75 / 30 20 30 60  
EHA 56 85 58 75 / 40 30 30 40  
LBL 57 84 60 76 / 40 20 30 60  
HYS 58 81 59 74 / 30 20 60 60  
P28 60 83 63 80 / 10 20 30 60  
 

 
   
DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
 
 
NONE.  

 
 

 
 
SHORT TERM...AJOHNSON  
LONG TERM...AJOHNSON  
AVIATION...GERARD  
 
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