363  
FXUS63 KDDC 262346  
AFDDDC  
 
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION  
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS  
546 PM CST SUN FEB 26 2017  
   
..UPDATED AVIATION
 
 
   
SHORT TERM
 
(THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY)  
ISSUED AT 212 PM CST SUN FEB 26 2017  
 
ANOTHER DAY OF QUIET WEATHER ACROSS SOUTHWEST KANSAS. VISIBLE SATELLITE  
IMAGERY ONLY SHOWS SOME HIGH CLOUDS OVER FAR SOUTHEAST BARBER COUNTY.  
A FAIRLY WEAK PRESSURE GRADIENT CONTINUES ACROSS THE REGION AND WINDS  
ARE FAIRLY WEAK FOR SOUTHWEST KANSAS STANDARDS. FOR TONIGHT, THE TRANQUIL  
WEATHER PATTERN WILL CONTINUE. ZONAL FLOW ALOFT WILL CONTINUE THROUGH  
MONDAY. THE NET RESULT IS HIGH PLAINS LEE TROUGHING. WITH THE TIGHTER  
PRESSURE GRADIENT, THE WINDS WILL BE A LITTLE STRONGER MONDAY THAN  
COMPARED TO TODAY. WARMER TEMPERATURES ARE ALSO EXPECTED ACROSS FAR  
SOUTHWEST KANSAS WITH THE WARM AIR ADVECTION PATTERN. THERE WILL BE  
ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS BASICALLY SOUTHWEST OF A LINE FROM SCOTT  
CITY, KS TO ASHLAND, KS. OUTDOOR BURNING IS DISCOURAGED TOMORROW. OTHERWISE,  
HIGHS TOMORROW WILL RANGE FROM UPPER 60S BY ELKHART, KS TO AROUND 60F  
TO THE NORTH BY I70.  
   
LONG TERM
 
(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)  
ISSUED AT 212 PM CST SUN FEB 26 2017  
 
ON TUESDAY, A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH. THERE WILL QUITE THE TEMPERATURE  
GRADIENT ACROSS THE REGION WITH ONLY 50S TO THE NORTH AND 70S ALONG  
THE OKLAHOMA BORDER. ANOTHER DAY OF ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS  
ARE POSSIBLE ON TUESDAY. HOWEVER, THE WORST MAY BE LOCATED SOUTH OF  
THE FORECAST DISTRICT AND INTO THE PANHANDLES. THE TIMING OF THE FRONT  
WILL DETERMINE THIS. REGARDLESS, IT WILL BE BREEZY OR EVEN WINDY BEHIND  
THE FRONT AND HAVE GONE WITH HIGHER SPEEDS AFTER COORDINATING WITH  
WFO NEIGHBORS. FOR PRECIPITATION, DEEP BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE WILL  
HAVE BEEN SHUNTED OFF WELL THE SOUTHEAST, SO SIGNIFICANT PRECIP IS  
NOT EXPECTED. RAIN AND SNOW WITH LIGHT AMOUNTS ARE FORECAST. BEYOND  
THIS, NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND A DRY FORECAST IS EXPECTED WED.  
HIGHS WILL MODERATE TO ABOVE NORMAL BY NEXT WEEKEND. LONG RANGE MODELS  
STILL SHOW A QUIET WEATHER PATTERN THROUGH THE SECOND WEEK OF MARCH.  
 

 
   
AVIATION
 
(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z MONDAY EVENING)  
ISSUED AT 530 PM CST SUN FEB 26 2017  
 
VFR CONDITIONS AT ALL SITES UNTIL ~17Z FOR DODGE CITY AND ~15Z  
FOR HAYS, WHERE MVFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL FOR A FEW HOURS DUE  
TO LOW LEVEL STRATUS DEVELOPING IN NORTHERN OKLAHOMA AND LIFTING  
NORTHWARD INTO CENTRAL KANSAS. LOW PRESSURE IS BUILDING ALONG THE  
NEW MEXICO AND TEXAS BOARDER. AS THE PRESSURE GRADIENT TIGHTENS  
TOMORROW WITH THE DEEPENING LOW, SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL GUST UP TO  
20 MPH AT ALL SITES STARTING ~15-19Z.  
 

 
   
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
 
 
DDC 24 65 39 62 / 0 10 0 20  
GCK 22 64 35 57 / 0 0 0 20  
EHA 27 64 39 63 / 0 0 0 20  
LBL 26 67 39 67 / 0 0 0 20  
HYS 24 59 35 54 / 0 0 0 10  
P28 30 63 43 71 / 0 20 0 10  
 

 
   
DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
 
 
NONE.  

 
 

 
 
SHORT TERM...SUGDEN  
LONG TERM...SUGDEN  
AVIATION...REYNOLDS  
 
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