934  
FXUS63 KDDC 240850  
AFDDDC  
 
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION  
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS  
350 AM CDT WED AUG 24 2016  
   
..UPDATED FOR SHORT AND LONG TERM
 
 
   
SHORT TERM
 
(TODAY AND TONIGHT)  
ISSUED AT 347 AM CDT WED AUG 24 2016  
 
FOR TODAY, LOTS OF HIGH AND MID CLOUDS WILL CONTINUE TO SPREAD  
NORTHWARD ALONG WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS AHEAD OF  
THE MAIN UPPER TROUGH ACROSS NEW MEXICO. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND  
THUNDERSTORMS WILL BECOME MORE ABUNDANT ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA AS  
HEATING AND WEAK UPWARD LIFT MOVE ACROSS WESTERN KANSAS THIS  
AFTERNOON. SOME STORMS COULD BECOME STRONG TO SEVERE WITH FORECAST  
CAPE OF 2000-3000 J/KG, AND A 70-90KT UPPER JET OVERHEAD. A COLD  
FRONT WILL SLOWLY WORK SOUTHEASTWARD ACROSS WESTERN KANSAS AND COULD  
STALL OUT AROUND THE DODGE CITY AREA THIS AFTERNOON. HIGHS WILL BE  
TRICKY DEPENDING ON HOW THICK THE CLOUDS BECOME, AND CURRENTLY HAVE  
LOW TO MID 80S NORTH OF THE COLD FRONT, AND AROUND 85 TO 90 SOUTH OF  
DODGE CITY.  
 
FOR TONIGHT, THE MAIN UPPER WAVE ACROSS NEW MEXICO BEGINS TO LIFT  
NORTHEASTWARD INTO WESTERN KANSAS WITH SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS  
INCREASING TO LIKELY ESPECIALLY ACROSS FAR WESTERN KANSAS CLOSER TO  
THE WAVE. THE COLD FRONT CONTINUES TO STALL NEAR DODGE CITY AHEAD OF  
THE WAVE WITH GOOD OVERRUNNING MOISTURE. HEAVY RAINFALL AMOUNTS ARE  
MOST LIKELY NORTH OF THE FRONT ACROSS THE I-70 CORRIDOR. LOWS  
TONIGHT WILL BE IN THE LOW TO MID 60S, EXCEPT AHEAD OF THE COLD  
FRONT IN PARTS OF SOUTH CENTRAL KANSAS, IN THE MID TO UPPER 60S.  
   
LONG TERM
 
(THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)  
ISSUED AT 347 AM CDT WED AUG 24 2016  
 
FOR THURSDAY INTO NEXT TUESDAY, THE UPPER WAVE CONTINUES TO MOVE  
ACROSS KANSAS ON THURSDAY WITH A GOOD CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND  
THUNDERSTORMS. STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS ARE AGAIN POSSIBLE MAINLY  
SOUTH AND EAST OF DODGE CITY NEAR A FRONTAL BOUNDARY. CHANCES FOR  
MORE STORMS CONTINUE WITH MORE TROPICAL AND NORTHERN BRANCH  
SHORTWAVE TROUGHS INTO SATURDAY, WITH DECREASING CHANCES AFTER THAT  
AS UPPER LEVEL ENERGY SHIFTS MORE NORTHWARD.  
 
HIGHS ON THURSDAY WILL BE COOL AND ONLY IN THE 70S WITH LOTS OF  
CLOUDS AND STORMS. HIGHS AROUND 80 WILL BE NEAR MEDICINE LODGE. HIGH  
TEMPS THEN WARM SLOWLY BACK INTO THE LOW 80S ON FRIDAY, THEN MID TO  
UPPER 80S BY SATURDAY INTO NEXT TUESDAY. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL BE IN  
THE 60S.  
 

 
   
AVIATION
 
(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY NIGHT)  
ISSUED AT 1211 AM CDT WED AUG 24 2016  
 
A COLD FRONT WILL GRADUALLY MOVE INTO THE TAF SITES EARLY THIS  
MORNING, THEN STALL OUT AROUND KDDC. VFR CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST  
MUCH OF THE DAY, THEN SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOP AFTER 22Z.  
 

 
   
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
 
 
DDC 86 63 76 61 / 40 50 40 40  
GCK 83 61 75 59 / 30 50 30 30  
EHA 84 60 76 59 / 30 50 30 30  
LBL 86 61 77 60 / 30 50 30 40  
HYS 81 61 75 59 / 40 50 30 30  
P28 91 68 83 65 / 50 60 60 60  
 

 
   
DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
 
 
NONE.  

 
 

 
 
SHORT TERM...KRUSE  
LONG TERM...KRUSE  
AVIATION...KRUSE  
 
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