097
FXUS63 KDDC 040817
AFDDDC
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS
317 AM CDT SAT JUL 4 2009
DISCUSSION
DAYS 1-2...
THE MAIN FORECAST FOCUS WILL BE ON THE CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS
EARLY TODAY AND LATE SUNDAY ALONG WITH TEMPERATURES DURING THE
PERIOD.
WV IMAGERY AND 00Z UPPER AIR ANALYSIS INDICATES A WEAK UPPER LEVEL
RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE IN PLACE ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS WITH A
WEAK GENERAL WESTERLY FLOW DEVELOPING ALOFT. SURFACE LOW PRESSURE IS
TRANSITIONING SLOWLY EAST ACROSS SOUTHWEST KANSAS INFLUENCING A LOW
LEVEL SOUTH TO SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ACROSS THE CWA. MEANWHILE, A
COLD FRONT IS SINKING SOUTHEAST ACROSS NORTHEASTERN COLORADO AND
WESTERN NEBRASKA. A POOL OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE REMAINS ACROSS ALL OF
WESTERN KANSAS WITH SURFACE DEWPOINTS WELL INTO THE 60S(F).
SHORT RANGE MODELS ARE IN GENERAL AGREEMENT INDICATING A RETURN
TO A NORTHWESTERLY FLOW REGIME BY THE END OF THE PERIOD AS UPPER
LEVEL RIDGING REBUILDS ACROSS THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST OVER THE
WEEKEND. AT THE SURFACE, THE COLD FRONT JUST OFF TO OUR NORTHWEST
WILL MOVE SOUTHEAST ACROSS WESTERN KANSAS EARLY THIS MORNING. THE
NAM AND GFS BOTH PLACE THE COLD ACROSS THE SOUTHEASTERN PORTION OF
THE CWA TO BEGIN THE PERIOD AT 12Z. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL
BE POSSIBLE IN THE GENERAL VICINITY OF THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY THIS
MORNING BEFORE ENDING BY THE AFTERNOON TIME FRAME. CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED TO BE MORE TRANQUIL TONIGHT AND INTO EARLY SUNDAY AS
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE MOVES FROM THE NORTHERN PLAINS SOUTHEAST INTO
CENTRAL AND EASTERN KANSAS. HOWEVER, THIS WILL BRING ABOUT AN EAST
TO SOUTHEASTERLY UPSLOPE FLOW ACROSS SOUTHWEST KANSAS BY SUNDAY
AFTERNOON SETTING UP A LOW LEVEL MOISTURE RETURN. THE NAM, GFS, AND
UKMET SHOW DEWPOINTS AT H85 BACK UP INTO THE LOW TO MID TEENS(C)
ALONG THE COLORADO BORDER BY SUNDAY AFTERNOON. MEANWHILE, LEE SIDE
TROUGHING WILL RETURN IN EASTERN COLORADO SETTING UP AN AREA OF LOW
LEVEL CONVERGENCE. AS A RESULT, THUNDERSTORMS WILL AGAIN BE POSSIBLE
SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING MAINLY IN EXTREME WESTERN KANSAS AS
STORMS THAT DEVELOP IN EASTERN COLORADO POSSIBLY DRIFT ACROSS THE
STATE LINE IN THE NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT. WILL STAY WITH 30 POPS
IN OUR WEST FOR SUNDAY NIGHT.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE BELOW NORMAL TODAY IN WAKE OF A COLD FROPA
EARLY THIS MORNING. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE OFF TO OUR NORTH WILL ALSO
AID IN KEEPING TEMPERATURES DOWN A BIT BY HELPING INFLUENCE NORTH TO
NORTHEASTERLY WINDS ACROSS WESTERN KANSAS THROUGH THIS EVENING. THE
NAM, GFS, AND UKMET ALL SHOW TEMPERATURES AT H85 RANGING FROM AROUND
20C ACROSS EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE CWA TO NEAR 25C ALONG THE
COLORADO BORDER. EXPECT HIGHS MAINLY IN THE 80S(F) TODAY WITH LOW
90S(F) POSSIBLE ACROSS OUR SOUTH AND SOUTHWEST. FOR TONIGHT,
TEMPERATURES WILL BE A BIT COOLER THAN FROM THE NIGHT PREVIOUS AS
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE TO OUR NORTH CONTINUES TO INFLUENCE AN EAST TO
NORTHEASTERLY FLOW ACROSS SOUTHWEST KANSAS. TEMPERATURES AT H85 WILL
RANGE IN THE MIDDLE TEENS(C) ACROSS MUCH OF THE CWA. EXPECT A
PLEASANT NIGHT WITH LOWS MAINLY IN THE LOW TO MID 60S(F).
HIGH TEMPERATURES SUNDAY WILL BE SIMILAR TO THE DAY BEFORE AS
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO DOMINATE THE REGION. THE HIGH
WILL SLIDE SOUTHEAST INTO EASTERN KANSAS BY SUNDAY AFTERNOON
BRINGING MORE OF AN EAST TO SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW ACROSS THE CWA.
HOWEVER, TEMPERATURES AT H85 WILL CHANGE VERY LITTLE FROM SATURDAY
SO HIGHS IN THE 80S(F) TO LOW 90S(F) CAN BE EXPECTED ACROSS
SOUTHWEST KANSAS. LOW TEMPERATURES SUNDAY NIGHT MAY BUMP UP A LITTLE
FROM THE NIGHT PREVIOUS AS SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS CONTINUE OVERNIGHT.
STILL, LOWS MAINLY IN THE 60S(F) WILL BE EXPECTED.
DAYS 3-7...
THE MEDIUM RANGE MODELS CONTINUE TO BE IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT IN
DEPICTING THE LONGWAVE TROUGHS ALONG THE WEST COAST AND EAST COAST
AND A RIDGE EXTENDING FROM THE DESERT SOUTHWEST INTO THE UPPER
MIDWEST. ON MONDAY THE RIDGE AXIS WILL BE ALONG THE CONTINENTAL
DIVIDE WITH NORTHWEST FLOW OVER THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS. LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE WILL BE ADVECTING NORTH THROUGH THE WESTERN HIGH PLAINS
WHICH WILL HELP WITH AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT ALONG THE
EASTERN SLOPES OF THE ROCKIES THAT COULD PROPAGATE OUT INTO FAR
WESTERN KANSAS OVERNIGHT.
AS THE WEEK CONTINUES THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE BUILDS OVER THE CENTRAL
CONUS AND EFFECTIVELY PUSHES THE MAIN BELT OF WESTERLIES FARTHER
NORTH INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS. THE GOING FORECAST HAS TEMPERATURES
INCREASING TO NEAR THE CENTURY MARK DURING THE LATTER PART OF THE
WEEK WHICH LOOKS REASONABLE GIVEN THE BUILDING RIDGE.
AVIATION
WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE TO
IMPACT THE TAF SITES THROUGH ABOUT 12Z BEFORE DIMINISHING OR MOVING
OFF TO THE EAST. EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS TO CONTINUE AT GARDEN CITY
AND DODGE CITY THROUGH THE PERIOD. IFR CIGS COULD DEVELOP AT HAYS
BETWEEN 10-12Z BUT VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD PREVAIL AROUND OR AFTER 15Z.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
DDC 88 62 87 64 / 20 10 10 20
GCK 87 62 86 63 / 20 10 10 20
EHA 87 62 86 64 / 20 20 20 30
LBL 88 62 87 64 / 20 20 10 30
HYS 83 60 86 64 / 20 10 10 20
P28 90 65 89 67 / 40 10 10 10
DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
FN32/02/02
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