969  
FXUS63 KDDC 171845  
AFDDDC  
 
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION  
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS  
145 PM CDT SUN JUN 17 2018  
   
..UPDATED LONG TERM
 
 
   
SHORT TERM
 
(THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH MONDAY)  
ISSUED AT 1140 AM CDT SUN JUN 17 2018  
 
A VERY MOIST ATMOSPHERE IS OVER SW KS AS OF MIDDAY. AN  
ESTABLISHED MOIST CONVEYOR BELT WITH MID/HIGH CLOUDS IS  
ESTABLISHED FROM THE TEXAS BIG BEND NORTH THROUGH WESTERN KANSAS.  
PLENTIFUL MID AND HIGH CLOUDS WILL CONTINUE INTO THIS AFTERNOON,  
SERVING TO LIMIT INSTABILITY. THE BOUNDARY LAYER IS ALSO VERY  
MOIST, WITH DEWPOINTS IN THE MID TO UPPER 60S AT ALL SW KS  
REPORTING SITES (NO DOUBT BEING ASSISTED BY LAST NIGHT'S  
BENEFICIAL RAINFALL). BECAUSE THE MOISTURE IS ESTABISHED THROUGH  
MUCH OF THE COLUMN, INSTABILITY AND LAPSE RATES ARE COMPROMISED,  
AND AGREE WITH SPC REMOVING THE PREVIOUS MARGINAL 5% WIND/HAIL  
PROBABILITIES FOR THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING. CAPE WILL REMAIN QUITE  
MODEST THROUGH THIS EVENING FOR JUNE, AVERAGING 1000-1500 J/KG.  
VARIOUS MODELS INCLUDING ECMWF AND 12Z NAM STILL SUGGEST ISOLATED  
THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING, GIVEN THEIR  
QPF FIELDS. THERE IS A MODEL CONSENSUS FAVORING THE SOUTH CENTRAL  
COUNTIES FOR CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT INTO THIS EVENING, AND THIS IS  
WHERE THE "HIGHEST" CHANCE CATEGORY POPS WERE PLACED. COVERAGE  
WILL BE LIMITED, AND MOST LOCATIONS WILL REMAIN DRY, BUT CLEARLY  
WITH SUCH A MOIST PROFILE, ANY SUSTAINED UPDRAFT WILL PRODUCE  
HEAVY RAINFALL VERY EFFICIENTLY. STRONG LEESIDE CYCLOGENESIS IN SE  
COLORADO WILL PROMOTE STRONG SOUTH WINDS AGAIN INTO THIS EVENING,  
GUSTING AGAIN IN THE 35-40 MPH RANGE. DESPITE THE MOISTURE AND  
CLOUDS, MOST LOCALES SHOULD STILL ACHIEVE LOWER 90S LATER TODAY.  
 
DRY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PREVAIL TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY  
MORNING. WAVY/STATIONARY FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL REMAIN NORTH OF  
SW KS THROUGH SUNRISE, WITH SURFACE WINDS MAINTAINING A SOUTHERLY  
COMPONENT, AND TEMPERATURES AGAIN STRUGGLING TO GET BELOW 70 BY  
SUNRISE.  
 
FRONTAL BOUNDARY TO THE NORTH IS PROGGED TO MAKE LITTLE IF ANY  
PROGRESS SOUTHWARD ON MONDAY, A TYPICAL OCCURRENCE IN JUNE.  
MODELS MAINTAIN SOUTHERLY WINDS AT MOST LOCATIONS ALL DAY. ALONG  
WITH A NET INCREASE OF +2-3C AT 850 MB, TEMPERATURES WILL END UP A  
BIT HOTTER ON MONDAY VERSUS SUNDAY, WITH MID 90S COMMON. WITH THE  
FRONTAL BOUNDARY A BIT CLOSER, A WEAKER PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL  
ALLOW THE KANSAS WINDS TO RELAX A BIT MONDAY, REDUCED TO 15-25 MPH  
(AS OPPOSED TO GUSTING TO 40 MPH). REGARDING CONVECTION ON  
MONDAY, MODELS LATCH ONTO A SHORTWAVE AND INTERACT THIS  
DISTURBANCE WITH A PREFRONTAL CONFLUENCE TROUGH AXIS ACROSS THE SE  
ZONES AT PEAK HEATING. INSTABILITY WILL BE MUCH MORE SUBSTANTIAL  
MONDAY AFTERNOON, WITH CAPE OVER 3000 J/KG SE OF DODGE CITY PER  
12Z NAM. INDEED, MODELS AGREE ON CONVECTIVE INITIATION IN THE SE  
CWA 4-7 PM MONDAY, AND POP GRIDS FAVOR THESE SE ZONES. A MARGINAL  
5% RISK OF LARGE HAIL/DAMAGING WINDS WILL BE WARRANTED WITH THIS  
ACTIVITY, ALONG WITH AGAIN LOCALLY EXCESSIVE RAINFALL.  
   
LONG TERM
 
(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)  
ISSUED AT 145 PM CDT SUN JUN 17 2018  
 
...THUNDERSTORMS WITH HEAVY RAIN EXPECTED LATE TUESDAY THROUGH  
EARLY WEDNESDAY...  
 
THE FOCUS OF THE FORECAST REMAINS CENTERED ON THE EXPECTED  
GENERATION OF THUNDERSTORM COMPLEXES ACROSS/NEAR SW KS LATE  
TUESDAY THROUGH EARLY WEDNESDAY. MODEL GUIDANCE REMAINS  
CONSISTENT, PRODUCING POPS IN THE LIKELY/DEFINITE CATEGORY, AND  
THESE WILL CONTINUE TO BE USED IN THE FORECAST. UPPER LOW REMAINS  
FORECAST OVER THE NORTHERN ROCKIES LATE TUESDAY THROUGH EARLY  
WEDNESDAY, WITH ASSORTED WEAK VORTICITY MAXIMA/SHORTWAVES ROTATING  
AROUND ITS BASE, AND EJECTING OUT INTO KANSAS DURING THIS  
TIMEFRAME. THESE SHORTWAVES WILL ENHANCE LIFT OVER A STALLED  
FRONTAL BOUNDARY AND VERY MOIST ATMOSPHERE OVER WESTERN KANSAS,  
WITH ALL MODEL GUIDANCE STRONGLY SUGGESTIVE OF MESOSCALE  
CONVECTIVE SYSTEM (MCS) DEVELOPMENT. CURRENTLY, IT APPEARS  
THUNDERSTORMS ARE MOST LIKELY ACROSS THE N/NW ZONES (AND NW KS)  
LATE TUESDAY. THIS IS THE MOST LIKELY TIMEFRAME FOR LARGE HAIL AND  
DAMAGING WINDS, AS THE PRESENCE OF THE BOUNDARY WILL IMPROVE  
SHEAR, AND STORMS WILL BE SEMI-DISCRETE FOR A FEW HOURS BEFORE  
CONGEALING INTO THE EXPECTED MCS. ALL MODELS CONTINUE TO DEPICT A  
MATURE MCS OVER WESTERN KANSAS DURING THE MIDNIGHT - 4AM WEDNESDAY  
TIMEFRAME. MODELS ARE SUGGESTING VERY HEAVY RAINFALL FROM THIS  
SYSTEM, WHICH CERTAINLY MAKES SENSE GIVEN THE FAVORABLE SYNOPTIC  
SETUP AND PLENTIFUL MOISTURE SUPPLY. RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 1-2  
INCHES WILL BE COMMON FROM THIS EVENT, WITH LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS  
OF 3-4" PLAUSIBLE.  
 
FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK, THE CLOSED LOW SAGS SE, CENTERED  
NEAR VALENTINE, NEBRASKA LATE WEDNESDAY...NEAR LINCOLN, NEBRASKA  
LATE THURSDAY...AND STILL NEARBY IN IOWA ON FRIDAY. THE RESULTING  
NW FLOW ALOFT OVER SW KS WILL COOL THE ATMOSPHERE SUBSTANTIALLY,  
REDUCING AFTERNOON HIGH TEMPERATURES TO THE LOWER TO MID 80S BOTH  
WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. SUSPECT SOME NE LOCALES WILL BE ABLE TO  
HOLD IN THE 70S ONE OR BOTH OF THOSE DAYS. MUCH DRIER WEATHER WILL  
PREVAIL THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. ALTHOUGH AN ISOLATED LATE DAY STORM  
CAN NEVER BE RULED OUT AMID NW FLOW IN JUNE, SW KS WILL RESIDE IN  
THE DRY SUBSIDENT QUADRANT OF THE CORN BELT CYCLONE FOR SEVERAL  
DAYS, KEEPING RAINFALL PROSPECTS VERY LIMITED.  
 

 
   
AVIATION
 
(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY AFTERNOON)  
ISSUED AT 1101 AM CDT SUN JUN 17 2018  
 
VFR WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THIS TAF FORECAST CYCLE, WITH VARIABLE  
AMOUNTS OF MID/HIGH CLOUDS. NAM MODEL INDICATES AN ISOLATED  
THUNDERSTORM IS POSSIBLE NEAR ANY OF THE AIRPORTS LATE THIS  
AFTERNOON. CLOUD COVER WILL CONTINUE TO LIMIT INSTABILITY THROUGH  
THIS AFTERNOON, AND HAVE LITTLE CONFIDENCE THAT A THUNDERSTORM  
WILL IMPACT A SPECIFIC AIRPORT, SO KEPT CONVECTION OUT OF THE 18Z  
TAF ISSUANCE. STRONG SOUTH WINDS WILL ONCE AGAIN IMPACT ALL  
AIRPORTS THROUGH 00Z MON, GUSTING IN THE 30-35 KT RANGE. WINDS  
WILL SUBSIDE SOME AND BACK MORE SELY THIS EVENING, AND DIMINISH  
SOME MORE AFTER MIDNIGHT AS THE PRESSURE GRADIENT CONTINUES TO  
RELAX. DAYTIME WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO BE MUCH REDUCED ON MONDAY  
COMPARED TO RECENT DAYS.  
 

 
   
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
 
 
DDC 92 73 94 70 / 20 20 20 10  
GCK 91 70 93 69 / 20 10 10 10  
EHA 89 66 93 67 / 10 10 10 0  
LBL 91 71 94 70 / 20 20 20 10  
HYS 94 74 95 69 / 20 20 10 40  
P28 95 75 95 74 / 10 10 20 20  
 

 
   
DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
 
 
NONE.  

 
 

 
 
SHORT TERM...TURNER  
LONG TERM...TURNER  
AVIATION...TURNER  
 
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.

The Nexlab KS Page Main Text Page