298  
FXUS63 KDDC 230551  
AFDDDC  
 
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION  
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS  
1251 AM CDT WED AUG 23 2017  
   
..UPDATED AVIATION SECTION
 
 
   
SHORT TERM
 
(THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY)  
ISSUED AT 203 PM CDT TUE AUG 22 2017  
 
COOLER AIR WILL FILTER INTO WESTERN KANSAS OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS  
AS AN AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE SLOWLY CROSSES THE CENTRAL PLAINS.  
BASED ON THE EXPECTED SKY COVER OVERNIGHT, SURFACE DEW POINTS  
AROUND DAYBREAK, AND WHERE THE SURFACE RIDGE WILL BE LOCATED  
BETWEEN 09Z AND 15Z WEDNESDAY AM FAVORING UNDERCUTTING GUIDANCE  
FOR AREAS EAST AND SOUTH OF DODGE CITY. LOWS EARLY WEDNESDAY  
MORNING IN THE MID TO UPPER 50S LOOKS LIKELY FOR MUCH OF WESTERN  
KANSAS. LOWS NEAR 50 NOT COMPLETELY OUT OF THE QUESTION IN NORTH  
CENTRAL KANSAS AND IF THE CLOUDS LINGER LONGER, LIKE SEVERAL  
MODELS INDICATE, NEAR THE OKLAHOMA BORDER THROUGH THE EARLY  
MORNING HOURS THEN LOWS IN THE LOWER 60S WILL BE REASONABLE.  
 
WEDNESDAY WILL BE SUNNY AND UNSEASONABLY COOL WITH HIGHS MAINLY  
IN THE MIDDLE 80S.  
   
LONG TERM
 
(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)  
ISSUED AT 203 PM CDT TUE AUG 22 2017  
 
THERE WILL BE A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS WEDNESDAY NIGHT  
NEAR THE COLORADO BORDER BUT THE PRECIPITATION CHANCES WILL BE ON  
THE INCREASE THURSDAY NIGHT AS AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH ROTATES  
AROUND AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE AXIS LOCATED ACROSS THE CENTRAL  
ROCKIES AND BEGINS TO MOVE OUT INTO THE WESTERN HIGHS PLAINS.  
SURFACE LEE TROUGH DEEPENING ACROSS EASTERN COLORADO WILL BE THE  
FOCUS FOR CONVECTION THURSDAY AFTERNOON. WHAT STORMS THAT DO  
DEVELOP IN EASTERN COLORADO ARE EXPECTED TO MOVE ACROSS WESTERN  
KANSAS OVERNIGHT AS THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH CROSSES THE CENTRAL  
PLAINS.  
 
CLOUDS, COOL TEMPERATURES, AND EVEN A CHANCE FOR PRECIPITATION  
CAN BE EXPECTED FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT GIVEN THE UP SLOPE FLOW  
AND MOISTURE FORECAST ACROSS WESTERN KANSAS BY THE GFS AND ECMWF  
AHEAD OF ANOTHER APPROACHING UPPER LEVEL TROUGH.  
 
A TROPICAL SYSTEM IN THE GULF OF MEXICO LATE WEEK WILL MOVE  
ONSHORE AND THEN SLOWLY CROSS SOUTHEAST TEXAS LATE THIS WEEKEND  
INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. GIVEN THE LATEST MODEL RUNS THIS SYSTEM  
WILL STAY IN SOUTHEAST TEXAS LATE THIS WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT  
WEEK AS AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE BUILDS ACROSS THE WESTERN UNITED  
STATES. THERE WILL STILL BE A SMALL CHANCE FOR CONVECTION OVER THE  
WEEKEND PERIOD AS A SURFACE COLD FRONT DROPS SOUTH ACROSS  
SOUTHWEST KANSAS AND AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH CROSSES THE CENTRAL  
PLAINS. THIS NEXT FRONT WILL ALSO BRING ANOTHER SHOT OF COOLER AIR  
BACK TO WESTERN KANSAS WHICH WILL RESULT IN KEEPING TEMPERATURES  
AT OR BELOW THE SEASONAL AVERAGES.  
 

 
   
AVIATION
 
(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY NIGHT)  
ISSUED AT 1249 AM CDT WED AUG 23 2017  
 
QUIET AVIATION WEATHER IS FORECAST THROUGH THE PERIOD. A SURFACE  
FRONT WILL REMAIN TO THE SOUTH OF SOUTHWEST KANSAS, WHICH WILL  
RESULT IN STABLE, DRY AIR. VFR CATEGORY IS FORECAST FOR THE  
FORESEEABLE FUTURE, AND WINDS WILL GENERALLY BE FROM AN EAST TO  
SOUTHEASTERLY DIRECTION. WIND SPEEDS WILL BUMP UP TO 12 KNOTS OR  
SO FROM LATE MORNING THROUGH AFTERNOON AT GCK AND DDC.  
 

 
   
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
 
 
DDC 54 86 60 86 / 0 0 10 10  
GCK 56 84 61 84 / 0 0 10 20  
EHA 60 83 63 82 / 0 10 20 30  
LBL 60 85 62 84 / 0 0 10 20  
HYS 54 85 60 87 / 0 0 10 10  
P28 59 84 60 86 / 0 0 0 0  
 

 
   
DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
 
 
NONE.  

 
 

 
 
SHORT TERM...BURGERT  
LONG TERM...BURGERT  
AVIATION...UMSCHEID  
 
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