362  
FXUS63 KDDC 250500  
AFDDDC  
 
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION  
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS  
1200 AM CDT SAT MAR 25 2017  
   
..UPDATED AVIATION
 
 
   
SHORT TERM
 
(THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY)  
ISSUED AT 345 PM CDT FRI MAR 24 2017  
 
A STRONG UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WAS OVER THE NORTHEAST  
TEXAS PANHANDLE EARLY THIS AFTERNOON. THIS SYSTEM IS NEARLY  
VERTICALLY STACKED WITH THE SURFACE LOW AND HAS BEEN MOVING SLOWLY  
SOUTHEAST THIS AFTERNOON. COLDER AIR WAS PLUNGING SOUTH ACROSS THE  
WESTERN HIGH PLAINS BEHIND THE LOW. AN OCCLUDED FRONT ASSOCIATED  
WITH THE SURFACE LOW WAS PUSHING SOUTH ALONG A DIGHTON-GARDEN  
CITY-HUGOTON LINE. GUSTY NORTH WINDS HAD DEVELOPED ALONG AND WEST  
OF THE FRONT. GIVEN THE SLOW EASTWARD MOVEMENT OF THE UPPER  
SYSTEM, THE STRONGEST NORTH WINDS HAD REMAINED WEST OF THE  
COLORADO BORDER THIS MORNING. WINDS OVER EASTERN COLORADO HAVE  
SUBSIDED SOMEWHAT TO THE POINT WHERE WARNING CRITERIA WINDS ARE NO  
LONGER A THREAT. AS A RESULT, THE HIGH WIND WARNING THAT WAS IN  
EFFECT FOR TODAY HAS BEEN CANCELLED. RADAR MOSAIC WAS SHOWING  
SCATTERED LIGHT SHOWERS OR SPRINKLES DEVELOPING ALONG AND  
SOUTHEAST OF THE FRONT. INSTABILITY ACROSS THIS AREA IS FAIRLY  
WEAK WITH THE SPC MESOANALYSIS SHOWING SBCAPE VALUES GENERALLY  
LESS THAN 250 J/KG SO THE THREAT FOR THUNDER SHOULD BE MINIMAL.  
MESOSCALE MODELS SUCH AS THE HRRR, NESTED NAM AND RAP SHOW THE  
PRECIPITATION DEVELOPING AND GRADUALLY SHIFTING EASTWARD THROUGH  
THE REST OF THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. HAVE ADJUSTED THE WX/POP  
GRIDS WITH CHANCE/SLIGHT CHANCE POPS INTO THIS EVENING BEFORE  
PRECIPITATION CHANCES END.  
 
GUSTY NORTH WINDS BEHIND THE FRONT WILL LINGER INTO THE EVENING  
HOURS AS A TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT MOVES THROUGH THE AREA. WINDS  
WILL DIMINISH LATER TONIGHT AS THE GRADIENT RELAXES AND RIDGE OF  
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE MOVES INTO THE FAR WEST. STRATUS BEHIND THE  
FRONT WILL ALSO LINGER FOR MUCH OF THE NIGHT BUT SHOULD BE CLEARING  
OUT LATER TONIGHT AS ATMOSPHERIC SUBSIDENCE INCREASES.  
 
SATURDAY IS SHAPING UP TO BE FAIRLY PLEASANT WITH TEMPERATURES  
EXPECTED TO TOP OUT IN THE 60S. NORTHWEST WINDS AT 10-20 MPH IN  
THE MORNING WILL DIMINISH DURING THE AFTERNOON AS A HIGH PRESSURE  
RIDGE AT THE SURFACE MOVES THROUGH.  
   
LONG TERM
 
(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)  
ISSUED AT 345 PM CDT FRI MAR 24 2017  
 
THE 12Z GFS AND ECMWF MODELS SHOW THE NEXT WAVE TO HAVE AN IMPACT  
ON CENTRAL PLAINS WEATHER MOVING OUT OF THE ROCKIES AND INTO THE  
CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS ON SUNDAY. THERE WILL BE SOME MOISTURE RETURN  
AHEAD OF THIS SYSTEM SO THE GOING CHANCE FOR RAINSHOWERS LOOKS  
GOOD. THE MODELS CONTINUE TO BE IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE LONG  
ADVERTISED UPPER LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM THAT IS PROGGED TO DIG INTO  
THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST ON MONDAY INTO MONDAY NIGHT AND THEN MOVE  
OUT ACROSS NORTHWEST TEXAS AND OKLAHOMA THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT  
WEEK. WHILE THERE IS SOME DISAGREEMENT IN WHERE THE MOST  
SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL WILL BE WITH THIS SYSTEM, IT APPEARS THAT A  
GOOD PART OF THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS IS IN FOR SOME DECENT  
RAINFALL THAT COULD PUT A LITTLE DENT IN THE DROUGHT CONDITIONS  
AND GET THE SPRING GREENUP GOING IN EARNEST. TEMPERATURES THROUGH  
THE WEEK WILL BE FAIRLY SEASONAL.  
 
BEYOND MIDWEEK, THE MODELS ARE IN REMARKABLE AGREEMENT WITH ANOTHER  
UPPER LOW SYSTEM DIGGING INTO THE CENTRAL/SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS BY  
NEXT WEEKEND. THE CURRENTLY PROGGED TRACK OF THIS SYSTEM COULD  
ALSO BRING SOME BENEFICIAL PRECIPITATION TO WESTERN KANSAS BUT A  
LITTLE MORE UNCERTAINTY EXISTS GIVEN HOW FAR OUT IN THE EXTENDED  
PERIOD THIS IS.  
 

 
   
AVIATION
 
(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY NIGHT)  
ISSUED AT 1200 AM CDT SAT MAR 25 2017  
 
IFR CIGS WILL BE THE MAIN ISSUE. IMPROVEMENT IS GRADUALLY EXPECTED AS  
A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVES EAST. EXPECT THE TERMINALS TO CLEAR FROM  
WEST TO EAST WITH VFR LATER. WINDS WILL BE NW/N 10-20 KT.  
 

 
   
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
 
 
DDC 39 65 40 67 / 40 0 0 30  
GCK 33 65 40 63 / 10 0 0 40  
EHA 32 67 39 63 / 0 0 0 20  
LBL 35 67 40 69 / 10 0 0 30  
HYS 38 60 38 62 / 20 10 0 30  
P28 43 64 41 73 / 50 10 0 30  
 

 
   
DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
 
 
NONE.  

 
 

 
 
SHORT TERM...GERARD  
LONG TERM...GERARD  
AVIATION...SUGDEN  
 
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