859  
FXUS63 KDDC 242356  
AFDDDC  
 
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION  
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS  
656 PM CDT WED MAY 24 2017  
   
..UPDATED FOR AVIATION DISCUSSION
 
 
   
SHORT TERM
 
(THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY)  
ISSUED AT 344 PM CDT WED MAY 24 2017  
 
CLEAR SKIES TONIGHT OVER THE AREA WILL LEAD TO GOOD RADIATIONAL  
COOLING CONDITIONS. INCREASE IN THETA-E SHOULD HOLD TEMPERATURES UP  
AROUND 10 DEGREES WARMER THAN THE PREVIOUS NIGHT, PRIMARILY IN THE  
UPPER 40S TO AROUND 50 F. THERE WILL BE A DECENT 40 KNOT 850 MB JET  
BY 12 Z, WHICH SHOULD READILY MIX OUT BY THE POST SUNRISE HOURS,  
ALLOWING BREEZY CONDITIONS WITH GUSTS IN THE 20-25 KNOT RANGE  
LASTING THROUGH THE DAY. THE BOUNDARY LAYER WINDS TURN WESTERLY AS  
WELL, ACCOUNTING FOR SIGNIFICANT ADIABATIC DOWNSLOPE FLOW OVER THE  
WESTERN HALF OF THE AREA. MODELS TREND TOWARDS UPPER 80S TO AROUND  
90 F FOR HIGHS IN THE FAR WEST WITH MODERATE SBCAPE AXIS FORMING  
FROM WESTERN OKLAHOMA INTO NORTHWEST KS AND NE COLORADO BY LATE IN  
THE AFTERNOON. NAM/WRF HAS BEEN SHOWING INITIAL CONVECTIVE  
DEVELOPMENT ACROSS FAR NORTHERN COLORADO FOR THURSDAY, WHICH WOULD  
TAKE SOME TIME (LATE EVENING AT EARLIEST) TO MOVE FAR ENOUGH EAST TO  
IMPACT THE INTERSTATE 70 CORRIDOR, REMAINING RELEGATED TO WEST  
CENTRAL KANSAS WITH A PRIMARILY CONVECTIVE WIND THREAT.  
   
LONG TERM
 
(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)  
ISSUED AT 344 PM CDT WED MAY 24 2017  
 
BY FRIDAY, TEMPERATURES MAY NOT BE AS WARM FOLLOWING CONVECTIVE  
OUTFLOW AND A WEAK COLD FRONT. HOWEVER EASTERLY UPSLOPE FLOW WILL BE  
REDEVELOPING WITH A MORE BROAD INSTABILITY FIELD MODELED MUCH  
FARTHER SOUTHWEST ACROSS SOUTHWEST. CONVECTIVE INITIATION FRIDAY IS  
STILL EXPECTED OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN IN COLORADO, DRIVEN EAST  
BY THE STEERING FLOW AND INSTABILITY AXIS OVER WESTERN KANSAS WITH  
A HIGHER THREAT OF SEVERE WEATHER WITH BETTER LOW LEVEL STORM  
RELATIVE FLOW. A COOLING TREND GOING INTO THE WEEKEND WITH HIGHS  
ONLY IN THE 70S WITH RELATIVELY LIGHT NORTH WINDS.  
 

 
   
AVIATION
 
(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z THURSDAY EVENING)  
ISSUED AT 653 PM CDT WED MAY 24 2017  
 
A SURFACE TROUGH WILL DEVELOP IN THE LEE OF THE ROCKIES THROUGH  
THE PERIOD, RESULTING IN SOUTH WINDS AT THE TAF SITES. THE WIND  
MAY SHIFT TO THE WEST AT KLBL AND KGCK BY 18Z AS THE DRYLINE  
PASSES. VFR CONDTIONS WILL PERSIST AND THERE IS ONLY A SLIGHT  
CHANCE OF A T-STORM AT KDDC AFTER 21Z.  
 

 
   
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
 
 
DDC 51 84 56 80 / 0 0 10 10  
GCK 50 91 54 80 / 0 10 20 20  
EHA 51 91 53 81 / 0 10 0 20  
LBL 51 92 55 82 / 0 0 0 10  
HYS 49 81 56 78 / 0 0 40 10  
P28 50 83 60 84 / 0 0 10 0  
 

 
   
DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
 
 
NONE.  

 
 

 
 
SHORT TERM...RUSSELL  
LONG TERM...RUSSELL  
AVIATION...FINCH  
 
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