319
FXUS63 KDDC 220511
AFDDDC
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS
1111 PM CST TUE JAN 21 2025
KEY MESSAGES
- ARCTIC AIR EXITS THROUGH THE DAY AND MORE TEMPERATE TEMPERATURES
RETURN FOR THE REST OF THE WEEK
- MAINLY DRY FOR AT LEAST THE NEXT WEEK
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 309 PM CST TUE JAN 21 2025
A 1040 HPA SURFACE ANTICYCLONE SITS FROM WESTERN ILLINOIS TO
NORTH TEXAS EARLY THIS AFTERNOON. THIS FEATURE SHIFTS EAST
TONIGHT ALLOWING A BROADENING SURFACE TROUGH ACROSS WESTERN
KANSAS, PASSING RAPIDLY ACROSS THE AREA OVERNIGHT AS SURFACE ANS
WINDS ALOFT AGAIN BECOME REFOCUSED OUT OF THE NORTHWEST AND
ADVECTING IN A LIKE AIRMASS OUT OF THE NORTHERN ROCKIES,
BASICALLY MAINTAINING OUR WINTER TEMPERATURES OVERNIGHT IN THE
TEENS AND TWENTIES, AND LIMITING HIGHS OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF
DAYS TO THE 30S/40S IN THE AFTERNOON. .
FRIDAY BECOMES THE WARMEST DAY OF THE PERIOD. A DRY SURFACE
LAYER WITH SINGLE DIGIT DEWPOINTS AND DOWNSLOPING ADIABATICALLY
HEATED SURFACE WINDS AND FULL INSOLATION COMBINE TO DRIVE
AFTERNOON HIGHS INTO THE 40S AND 50S. A REASONABLE RANGE OF
OUTCOMES ALSO IS NOT LARGE AS THE 95TH PERCENTILE ONLY TAKES IT
UP TO THE MID 50S AT ELKHART.
THE REMAINDER OF THE EXPECTED 7 DAY FORECAST IS DRY HOWEVER NOT
WITHOUT A SMALL AMOUNT OF UNCERTAINTY. THE GFS MULTI-RUN 24
HOUR QPF HAS BEEN CONSISTENT IN SHOWING A LIGHT QPF/SNOW EPISODE
JANUARY 27TH-28TH TIMEFRAME (NEXT MONDAY AND TUESDAY) WHILE THE
ECMWF ENSEMBLE MEAN FOR THE SAME FIELDS IS DRY DURING THAT
PERIOD BY CONSISTENT AND MORE ROBUST WITH POTENTIAL FOR AMOUNTS
(IN EXCESS OF ONE TENTH OF AN INCH) CENTERED AROUND WEDNESDAY
THE 29TH (SO A BIT SLOWER OF AN ENSEMBLE). ALL OF THIS IN A
GENERAL PATTERN THAT CONTINUES TO BRING POSITIVELY TILTED
LONGWAVE SYNOPTIC TROUGHS TRAVELING EAST THROUGH THE MID-
LATITUDES AS THE DETERMINISTIC MODEL RUNS ARE SHOWING.
AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY/
ISSUED AT 1110 PM CST TUE JAN 21 2025
VFR FLIGHT CATEGORIES FOR ALL TERMINALS DURING THE TIME PERIOD.
A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH WESTERN KANSAS EARLY THIS MORNING
AND POST FRONTAL WINDS WILL INCREASE AFTER 12Z WITH WINDS
INCREASING TO 15-25 KTS SUSTAINED AND GUSTS AROUND 30 KTS
BETWEEN 15-00Z.
DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
DISCUSSION...RUSSELL
AVIATION...TATRO
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