655  
FXUS63 KDDC 262033  
AFDDDC  
 
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION  
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS  
333 PM CDT WED APR 26 2017  
   
..UPDATED SHORT AND LONG TERM DISCUSSION
 
 
   
SHORT TERM
 
(THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY)  
ISSUED AT 327 PM CDT WED APR 26 2017  
 
FAIRLY DEEP UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WAS MOVING EAST OUT OF THE HIGH  
PLAINS EARLY THIS AFTERNOON. A BROAD FETCH OF NORTHWESTERLY FLOW  
ALOFT EXTENDED FROM THE TROUGH BACK OVER THE NORTHERN ROCKIES AND  
NORTHEAST PACIFIC. ANOTHER SHORTWAVE TROUGH IN THE FLOW ALOFT WAS  
MOVING ONSHORE OVER THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST. AT THE SURFACE, A RIDGE OF  
HIGH PRESSURE EXTENDED FROM THE WESTERN DAKOTAS INTO KANSAS.  
 
A FAIRLY COOL AIRMASS OVER WESTERN KANSAS RESULTED IN LOW TEMPERATURES  
IN THE MID AND UPPER 30S THIS MORNING IN SPITE OF GUSTY NORTH WINDS.  
OVER THE NEXT 18-24 HOURS, THE LOWER LEVELS WILL WARM UP SOMEWHAT AS  
THE SURFACE RIDGE MOVES EAST TONIGHT AND MOVES EAST OW LEVEL RETURN  
FLOW SETS UP AND SOUTH TO SOUTHEAST SURFACE WINDS AROUND 10 MPH  
DEVELOP. IN ADDITION TO THIS, WE WILL SEE INCREASING MID AND HIGH  
LEVEL CLOUDINESS OVERNIGHT AHEAD OF THE NEXT SHORTWAVE. WITH  
TEMPERATURES DROPPING BACK INTO THE MID AND UPPER 30S AGAIN TONIGHT,  
LIGHTEST WINDS AND COOLEST TEMPERATURES WILL BE OVER CENTRAL KANSAS.  
WILL ISSUE A FROST ADVISORY FOR THAT AREA FOR LATER TONIGHT INTO  
EARLY THURSDAY.  
 
SOUTHERLY FLOW CONTINUES TO INCREASE AS THE NEXT SHORTWAVE APPROACHES  
ON THURSDAY. THE MODELS SHOW A WARM FRONT LIFTING EASTWARD INTO  
WESTERN KANSAS DURING THE DAY. THE LOWER LEVELS SHOULD MIX OUT BY  
AFTERNOON WITH DEWPOINTS BACK INTO THE LOWER 40S. ALONG WITH THE  
LIMITED MOISTURE RETURN, STEEP LAPSE RATES ARE PROGGED OVER THE  
FRONTAL BOUNDARY WITH 500 MB TEMPERATURES AROUND -20C. THE MODELS  
CONTINUE TO SHOW A CORRIDOR OF AROUND 1000 J/KG MUCAPE DEVELOPING  
ALONG WITH 40-50 KNOTS OF BULK SHEAR WHICH COULD SUPPORT SOME QUARTER  
TO GOLFBALL SIZE HAIL. SPC HAS UPDATED THE DAY2 OUTLOOK TO INCLUDE A  
MARGINAL RISK FROM WEST CENTRAL INTO SOUTH CENTRAL KANSAS WHICH  
LOOKS GOOD.  
   
LONG TERM
 
(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)  
ISSUED AT 327 PM CDT WED APR 26 2017  
 
THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVES EAST OF THE REGION THURSDAY EVENING WITH  
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MOVING OUT OF WESTERN AND CENTRAL KANSAS BY  
DURING THE MID TO LATE EVENING HOURS. THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY WILL  
SEE AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH DEEPENING OVER THE WESTERN STATES AND AND  
CLOSING OFF NEAR FOUR CORNERS ON FRIDAY NIGHT. THE 12Z MEDIUM RANGE  
MODELS, ESPECIALLY THE ECMWF AND GEM, ARE IN BETTER AGREEMENT WITH A  
MORE SOUTHERN TRACK OF THE UPPER LOW FROM NORTHERN NEW MEXICO INTO  
WESTERN OKLAHOMA BY SUNDAY MORNING BEFORE LIFTING NORTHEAST ACROSS  
EASTERN KANSAS. THIS SEEMS MORE REASONABLE GIVEN THAT THE MODELS ARE  
SHOWING THUNDERSTORMS BREAKING OUT OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS AND LOWER  
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY ON SATURDAY/SATURDAY NIGHT.  
 
RAIN CHANCES WILL BEGIN TO RAMP UP BY LATE FRIDAY AFTERNOON INTO  
FRIDAY EVENING AS UVM INCREASES IN THE FACE OF INCREASINGLY DIFLUENT  
FLOW AND DEEP LAYER ISENTROPIC LIFT OVER THE AREA. BY SATURDAY  
MORNING, WE SHOULD SEE WIDESPREAD RAIN ACROSS MUCH OF WESTERN AND  
CENTRAL KANSAS. 850 MB TEMPERATURE PROGS SHOW TEMPERATURES COOLING TO  
AOB 0C ACROSS MUCH OF NORTHWEST AND FAR WESTERN KANSAS. RAIN WILL BE  
MIXING WITH SNOW AT TIME BY SATURDAY MORNING AND MAY EVEN CHANGE  
OVER TO SNOW OVER THE FAR WESTERN COUNTIES DURING THE DAY WITH  
PERIODS OF MODERATE TO POSSIBLY HEAVY SNOW AT TIMES. GFS ENSEMBLE  
SNOW ACCUMULATIONS ARE VARIABLE WITH NUMEROUS MEMBERS INDICATING  
TOTAL SNOW ACCUMS OF LESS THAN 6 INCHES IN THE WESTERN COUNTIES WHILE  
A FEW MEMBERS ARE IN EXCESS OF A FOOT. CURRENT TOTAL SNOW ACCUM  
GRIDS WILL INDICATE 1-3 INCHES ALONG THE COLORADO BORDER. THINK THESE  
AMOUNTS WILL LIKELY INCREASE OVER THE NEXT DAY OR TWO.  
 
BASED ON THE 12Z MODEL RUNS, WE SHOULD SEE THE RAIN AND SNOW WINDING  
DOWN FROM WEST TO EAST DURING THE DAY SUNDAY AS THE UPPER LOW LIFTS  
OUT. SUNDAY NIGHT COULD SEE FREEZING TEMPERATURES DEPENDING ON WINDS  
AND CLOUDS. MONDAY AND TUESDAY SHOULD BE DRY AND A LITTLE WARMER  
BEFORE ANOTHER UPPER TROUGH DROPS DOWN INTO THE REGION AND BRINGS A  
CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO THE REGION BY MID WEEK.  
 

 
   
AVIATION
 
(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY AFTERNOON)  
ISSUED AT 1155 AM CDT WED APR 26 2017  
 
GUSTY NORTH WINDS WILL DIMINISH THROUGH THE AFTERNOON HOURS AND  
SHOULD BE LESS THAN 10 KNOTS BY SUNSET. WINDS WILL COME AROUND TO  
THE SOUTHEAST AND SOUTHEAST TO SOUTH AND BECOME GUSTY AGAIN BY  
14Z-15Z THURSDAY. LOOK FOR VFR SKIES AND VISIBILITIES TO PREVAIL  
THROUGH THE PERIOD. THERE COULD BE A FEW SHOWERS DEVELOPING BY THE  
END OF THE PERIOD ESPECIALLY AROUND GARDEN CITY.  
 

 
   
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
 
 
DDC 39 66 42 64 / 0 40 50 20  
GCK 39 67 40 62 / 0 30 50 30  
EHA 42 71 40 63 / 0 20 10 30  
LBL 42 73 41 66 / 0 20 20 30  
HYS 36 59 43 58 / 0 50 70 20  
P28 40 67 46 68 / 0 30 50 10  
 

 
   
DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
 
 
FROST ADVISORY FROM 3 AM TO 8 AM CDT THURSDAY FOR KSZ030-031.  
 

 
 

 
 
SHORT TERM...GERARD  
LONG TERM...GERARD  
AVIATION...GERARD  
 
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