090  
FXUS63 KDDC 182254  
AFDDDC  
 
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION  
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS  
554 PM CDT SAT AUG 18 2018  
   
..UPDATE
 
 
   
UPDATE
 
 
ISSUED AT 549 PM CDT SAT AUG 18 2018  
 
CURRENT THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS KEARNY COUNTY PRODUCING UP TO NICKEL  
SIZED HAIL AND WIND GUSTS UP TO 40MPH. THESE ARE NOT EXPECTED TO  
BECOME SEVERE AS THEY MOVE TO THE NORTHWEST AROUND 15MPH INTO  
NORTHWESTERN FINNEY AND SOUTHEASTERN SCOTT COUNTIES IN THE NEXT  
HOUR. RAIN SHOWERS ALSO CONTINUE TO FALL IN NORTHWESTERN TREGO  
COUNTY AND MUCH OF ELLIS COUNTY EXPECTING TO PUSH OUT OF THE AREA  
IN THE NEXT HOUR OR SO. NEXT ROUND OF THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED TO  
COME OUT OF EASTERN COLORADO INTO FAR WESTERN KANSAS AROUND SUNSET  
AND PUSHING EASTWARD THROUGH TONIGHT AND OVER NIGHT HOURS REACHING  
GARDEN CITY AND LIBERAL AROUND 10PM AND DODGE CITY AND HAYS AROUND  
11PM THEN TO MEDICINE LODGE AND PRATT AROUND MIDNIGHT. THESE  
STORMS IN THE NIGHT TIME HOURS NOT EXPECTED TO BE SEVERE BUT  
ISOLATED FLOODING ISSUES WILL BE A CONCERN WITH 1-2 INCHES  
EXPECTED IN SOME AREAS, ESPECIALLY ALONG THE I-70 CORRIDOR.  
 

 
   
SHORT TERM
 
(THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY)  
ISSUED AT 306 PM CDT SAT AUG 18 2018  
 
A FEW SHOWERS HAVE DEVELOPED OVER OUR NORTHEAST COUNTIES THIS  
AFTERNOON, ROUGHLY ALONG A LARNED TO TREGO CENTER LINE. THESE  
SHOWERS ARE ASSOCIATED WITH ISENTROPIC ASCENT AHEAD OF A STORM  
SYSTEM THAT WILL BY MOVING THROUGH THE REGION THIS EVENING. WHILE  
CONVECTIVE ALLOWING MODELS DON'T HAVE A GOOD HANDLE ON THESE  
SHOWERS, THEY ARE EXPECTED TO MOVE NORTHEAST OUT OF THE AREA  
WITHIN A FEW HOURS.  
 
UPPER LEVEL WATER VAPOR IMAGERY THIS AFTERNOON IS SHOWING AN  
ENERGETIC 581 DM CLOSED LOW OVER SOUTHERN MONTANA. A SHORTWAVE  
ASSOCIATED WITH THIS LOW HAS ENTERED THE NORTHERN ROCKIES, WHICH  
HAS PROVIDED FORCING FOR ASCENT ALONG A SURFACE COLD FRONT IN  
EASTERN COLORADO, WHERE STORMS HAVE ALREADY BEGUN TO DEVELOP.  
CONVECTIVE ALLOWING MODELS HAVE HAD GOOD AGREEMENT ABOUT THESE  
STORMS BECOMING MORE ORGANIZED AS THEY MOVE EAST INTO MORE  
FAVORABLE SHEAR AND INSTABILITY. WHILE THE CHANCES FOR SEVERE  
WEATHER WANE AS THESE STORMS CROSS INTO WESTERN KANSAS AROUND  
7-9PM TONIGHT, I DO AGREE WITH SPC'S SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE STORMS  
FOR OUR SOUTHWEST COUNTIES. LARGE HAIL UP TO GOLFBALL SIZE IS  
POSSIBLE IN THIS AREA, AS WELL AS SEVERE WIND (58MPH+). AS THE  
STORMS MOVE EAST THROUGH WESTERN KANSAS AND BECOME LINEAR, STRONG  
TO SEVERE WIND AND HEAVY RAIN, WITH POSSIBLE FLASH FLOODING,  
BECOME THE THREAT. WIDESPREAD 0.5" TO 1" RAIN IS EXPECTED TONIGHT,  
WITH LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS POSSIBLE. THIS SYSTEM WILL EXIT OUR  
EASTERN ZONES SUNDAY MORNING AS THE PARENT UPPER LEVEL LOW MOVES  
INTO SOUTHERN NEBRASKA AND PUSHES AN ATTENDANT "COLD" FRONT  
THROUGH THE REGION. THE GFS AND ECMWF BOTH SHOW ANOTHER ROUND OF  
RAIN DEVELOPING THE BACKSIDE OF THIS LOW ALONG, MOSTLY AFFECTING  
THE I-70 CORRIDOR SUNDAY EARLY TO MID-AFTERNOON.  
   
LONG TERM
 
(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)  
ISSUED AT 306 PM CDT SAT AUG 18 2018  
 
BY SUNDAY NIGHT, RAIN WILL HAVE MOVED EAST OUT OF THE REGION, AND  
THE WE WILL HAVE A CHANCE TO DRY OUT UNTIL TUESDAY. BOTH THE GFS  
AND THE ECMWF SHOW THE NEXT CHANCE FOR RAIN ON TUESDAY NIGHT INTO  
WEDNESDAY MORNING.  
 

 
   
AVIATION
 
(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SUNDAY EVENING)  
ISSUED AT 545 PM CDT SAT AUG 18 2018  
 
CURRENT VFR CONDITIONS FOR ALL TAF SITES FOR THE NEXT FEW HOURS.  
THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO AFFECT LBL AND GCK BY 03Z AND DDC  
AND HYS BY 04Z AS A DEEP SHORT WAVE TROUGH PUSHES ACROSS THE CWA  
AND MUCH OF WESTERN KANSAS. THIS WILL BRING MVFR CEILINGS DOWN TO  
AROUND 2500 FEET AND RESTRICTED VISIBILITY TO AROUND 4 MILES IN  
STORM. THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO LAST THROUGH 07Z AND 08Z  
RESPECTIVELY WITH VICINITY STORMS THROUGH 11Z AND 12Z BEFORE  
PUSHING EAST OF THE TAF SITES. IMPROVING CONDITIONS EXPECTED AFTER  
SUNRISE WITH CEILINGS SCATTERING OUT TO MID LEVEL HEIGHTS WITH  
WINDS TURNING OUT OF THE NORTH TO NORTHWEST AROUND 10-12KTS FOR  
MUCH OF THE REMAINDER OF THE DAY AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN ACROSS  
EASTERN COLORADO INTO WESTERN KANSAS.  
 

 
   
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
 
 
DDC 65 82 62 79 / 90 50 20 10  
GCK 65 82 59 79 / 90 20 10 0  
EHA 63 84 57 81 / 80 10 0 0  
LBL 65 84 60 81 / 80 10 10 0  
HYS 66 77 61 76 / 100 80 30 10  
P28 68 83 64 81 / 100 80 20 10  
 

 
   
DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
 
 
NONE.  

 
 

 
 
UPDATE...LOWE  
SHORT TERM...REYNOLDS  
LONG TERM...REYNOLDS  
AVIATION...LOWE  
 
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