553  
FXUS63 KDDC 171752  
AFDDDC  
 
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION  
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS  
1252 PM CDT TUE OCT 17 2017  
 
...UPDATED SHORT TERM  
   
SHORT TERM
 
(THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY)  
ISSUED AT 1250 PM CDT TUE OCT 17 2017  
 
LIKE YESTERDAY, A NICE FALL DAY IS OCCURRING IN SOUTHWEST KANSAS.  
UNLIKE YESTERDAY, THE WIND IS LESS THAN 10 MPH THIS AFTERNOON AND  
EVENING. VERY LITTLE CHANGE TO THE UPPER LEVEL NORTHWEST FLOW  
TODAY OVER THE REGION TODAY, AND WITH THIS DRY AIRMASS, SKIES WILL  
KEEP CLEAR. HIGH TEMPERATURES TODAY WILL REACH THE UPPER 70S, AND  
WITH THE CLEAR SKIES, A FEW AREAS REACHING 80 CAN'T BE RULED OUT.  
TONIGHT, WIND WILL REMAIN LIGHT WITH LOWS IN THE MID TO UPPER  
40S.  
 
TOMORROW, A FAST-MOVING UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL ENTER BRITISH  
COLUMBIA AND TRACK INTO CENTRAL MANITOBA BY MID-DAY TOMORROW. THIS  
WILL CREATE A LARGE AREA OF SURFACE LOW PRESSURE REACHING INTO  
WESTERN KANSAS. THIS WILL PUSH A WEAK BOUNDARY INTO OUR CWA;  
THE ONLY IMPACT TO OUR REGION WILL BE A LACK OF WIND TOMORROW  
AFTERNOON AS THE TROUGH AXIS MOVES THROUGH. HIGHS TOMORROW SHOULD  
REACH THE LOWER 80S, AND WILL RESULT IN ANOTHER TRANQUIL, FALL  
DAY.  
   
LONG TERM
 
(WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY)  
ISSUED AT 249 AM CDT TUE OCT 17 2017  
 
MUCH MORE OF A SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT DEVELOPS BY LATE THURSDAY  
AND INTO FRIDAY, AS WELL AS A MARKED INCREASE IN THE SOUTHERLY  
SURFACE WINDS BY FRIDAY. THE DOWNSLOPE COMPONENT WILL PROBABLY BE  
LOST HOWEVER, MODEL CONSENSUS IS BETTING WEDNESDAY WILL BE THE  
WARMEST DAY OF THE WEEK. A STRONG UPPER TROUGH WILL MOVE ACROSS THE  
PACIFIC NORTHWEST BEGINNING FRIDAY, AS THE THE STRONGER PRESSURE  
GRADIENT DEVELOPS OVER THE HIGH PLAINS REGION. GUSTY CONDITIONS  
SHOULD DEVELOP FRIDAY FOLLOWED BY THE PASSING OF A PACIFIC COLD  
FRONT ACROSS WESTERN KANSAS DURING THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEKEND. AT  
THIS TIME, THE GFS AND ECMWF WOULD RELEGATE THUNDERSTORMS ALONG  
THE MOISTURE TRANSPORT REGION/WARM SECTOR AHEAD OF THE 850 MB  
FRONT (IN THIS CASE MEANING THE BEST CHANCES FOR RAIN OR STORMS  
ACROSS OUR EASTERN COUNTIES). WEATHER REMAINS FALL-LIKE INTO EARLY  
NEXT WEEK.  
 

 
   
AVIATION
 
(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON)  
ISSUED AT 1208 PM CDT TUE OCT 17 2017  
 
VFR CONDITIONS PREVAIL AT ALL TAF SITES PROVIDING GREAT FLYING  
CONDITIONS OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. WIND WILL GENERALLY FLOW UNDER  
10 KNOTS, ESTABLISHING A SOUTHERLY DIRECTION THIS AFTERNOON WITH  
FEW CLOUDS. WIND TURNS SOUTHWESTERLY TOMORROW MORNING, BUT WILL  
REMAIN UNDER 10 KNOTS.  
 

 
   
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
 
 
DDC 79 47 82 48 / 0 0 0 0  
GCK 80 45 81 45 / 0 0 0 0  
EHA 80 45 81 47 / 0 0 0 0  
LBL 79 45 82 48 / 0 0 0 0  
HYS 78 46 80 46 / 0 0 0 0  
P28 76 47 78 49 / 0 0 0 0  
 

 
   
DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
 
 
NONE.  

 
 

 
 
SHORT TERM...REYNOLDS  
LONG TERM...RUSSELL  
AVIATION...REYNOLDS  
 
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