964
FXUS63 KDDC 090924
AFDDDC
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS
323 AM CST TUE FEB 9 2010
DISCUSSION
DAYS 1-2...
IN THE FIRST 60 HOURS OF THE FORECAST, THE PRIMARY FORECAST DECISION
WILL BE TEMPERATURES.
WITH A COLD HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE ENTRENCHED FROM CANADA SOUTH THROUGH
THE PLAINS TO THE GULF COAST, THERE WILL BE LITTLE OR NO CHANCE FOR
PRECIPITATION THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT. THE RECENT SNOWFALL COVERING
CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN PARTS OF THE CWA WILL HELP TO KEEP DIURNAL
WARMING FROM BEING IN FULL SWING. FOR TODAY, UNDER MOSTLY SUNNY
SKIES, WITH FRESH SNOW ON THE GROUND AND COLD AIR ENTRAINMENT FROM
THE NORTH, DO NOT SEE TEMPERATURES RISING OUT OF THE LOWER TO MID
20S. THE NORTHERN 2 COUNTIES DID NOT RECEIVE ANY SNOWFALL, BUT
EVEN SO, THE COLD ARCTIC RIDGE WILL SUPPRESS DAY TIME HEATING.
TONIGHT SHOULD CONTINUE TO BE MOSTLY CLEAR AND COLD, WITH MINS
DIPPING TO THE 7F TO 8F DEGREE RANGE IN HYS-GCK-DDC AND P28, WHILE
BEING NOT QUITE AS BITTER COLD IN EHA AND LBL AREAS WITH LOW TEMPS IN
THE 13-14F RANGE. THE NAM MODEL HAS EVEN COLDER MIN TEMPS TONIGHT IN
THE NORTH, IN THE 4 TO 5F DEGREE RANGE. BUT CONSIDERING THERE IS NO
SNOW IN MY NORTHERN COUNTIES, OPTED FOR LOWS SIMILAR TO THIS
MORNING. THE HIGH SLIDES OFF JUST A LITTLE TO OUR EAST ON
WEDNESDAY, ALLOWING A SOUTHERLY FLOW TO RETURN TO THE AREA. DID NOT
GO AS HIGH AS THE MET OR MAV GUIDANCE, BUT KEPT MAX TEMPS AT OR
SLIGHTLY BELOW FREEZING. THE SOUTHWEST CORNER MAY REACH 32-33F,
BUT A 28F TO 30F RANGE WILL COVER THE REST OF THE CWA. ALSO FOR
WEDNESDAY, LOWERED THE 10 POPS EVEN MORE, SEEING HOW THE NEWER
MODELS TAKE THE UPPER SYSTEM EVEN FARTHER SOUTH.
WEDNESDAY NIGHT WILL BE A TAD MILDER, WITH MIN TEMPERATURES IN THE
UPPER TEENS IN MY NORTH AND LOWER 20S SOUTH. CLOUDS SHOULD STREAM
NORTH FROM OKLAHOMA AND TEXAS, HOLD THE DIURNAL FALL NORMALLY
ASSOCIATED WITH SNOW COVERED AREAS.
DAYS 3-7...
A SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL PASS ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS BY THURSDAY,
BUT TOO FAR SOUTH TO BRING PRECIP TO SW KS. A SHORTWAVE TROUGH
WILL DROP SOUTHWARD INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS AND MIDWEST BY SATURDAY,
BRINGING A WEAK SHOT OF COLD AIR BUT NO PRECIP. THIS SYSTEM MAY
HERALD A PATTERN CHANGE(PER ECMWF/CANADIAN), WITH A LARGE UPPER
TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN CONUS AND RIDGING OVER THE WEST. IF CORRECT,
THIS WOULD BE A DRY PATTERN FOR THE CENTRAL PLAINS, POSSIBLY FOR THE
REMAINDER OF FEBRUARY.
THE NARROW STRIPES OF SNOWCOVER OVER SW KS SHOULD BE MELTED BY LATE
THIS WEEK, ALLOWING DAYTIME TEMPS TO WARM WELL INTO THE 40S. HIGHS
MAY BACK OFF INTO THE UPPER 30S BY SUNDAY AS CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE
SLIPS DOWN THE PLAINS BEHIND THE AFOREMENTIONED SHORTWAVE TROUGH.
AVIATION
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
DDC 24 8 30 21 / 0 0 0 0
GCK 25 8 30 22 / 0 0 0 0
EHA 26 14 32 23 / 0 0 0 10
LBL 26 13 31 22 / 0 0 0 10
HYS 23 7 28 20 / 0 0 0 0
P28 25 8 29 22 / 0 0 0 10
DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
FN12/24/24
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