130  
FXUS63 KDDC 261105  
AFDDDC  
 
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION  
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS  
605 AM CDT THU APR 26 2018  
   
..UPDATED AVIATION DISCUSSION
 
 
   
SHORT TERM
 
(TODAY AND TONIGHT)  
ISSUED AT 412 AM CDT THU APR 26 2018  
 
EARLY MORNING TEMPERATURES HAD FALLEN INTO THE MID/UPPER 30S IN  
MOST LOCATIONS WITH DEWPOINTS GENERALLY IN THE LOW TO MID 30S.  
THESE CONDITIONS WILL BE RIPE FOR FROST DEVELOPMENT THROUGH  
SUNRISE SO WILL CONTINUE THE CURRENT FROST HEADLINE THROUGH  
EXPIRATION TIME.  
 
CURRENT SATELLITE LOOPS AND ANALYSIS SHOW THE NEXT 500 MILLIBAR  
SHORTWAVE TROUGH CURRENTLY MOVING THROUGH WESTERN SOUTH DAKOTA AND  
WYOMING EARLY THIS MORNING. THE ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT WAS PUSHING  
SOUTH THROUGH NORTHEAST COLORADO. THE FRONT WILL CROSS WESTERN  
KANSAS THIS MORNING AND SHOULD BE EXITING SOUTH CENTRAL KANSAS  
LATER THIS AFTERNOON. 00Z MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW SOME SOME WIDELY  
SCATTERED SHOWERS DEVELOPING MAINLY EASTERN PORTIONS OF SOUTHWEST  
KANSAS INTO CENTRAL/SOUTH CENTRAL KANSAS THIS AFTERNOON. WHILE THERE  
IS SOME VERY LIMITED INSTABILITY IN SOUTH CENTRAL KANSAS, THINK  
THAT THE BEST POTENTIAL FOR ANY THUNDER SHOULD BE SOUTH OF THE  
FORECAST AREA INTO OKLAHOMA.  
 
THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVES THROUGH THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON AND  
EARLY EVENING. ANY CHANCE FOR PRECIPITATION SHOULD END OR MOVE  
SOUTH OF THE FORECAST AREA BY SUNSET WITH SKIES BECOMING CLEAR.  
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE SOUTH THROUGH THE CENTRAL HIGH  
PLAINS TONIGHT WITH THE GUSTY NORTH WINDS DIMINISHING WITH SUNSET  
AND BECOMING LIGHT WEST TO SOUTHWEST OVERNIGHT. WILL CONTINUE THE  
TREND OF GOING BELOW MOS GUIDANCE AND KEEP LOW TEMPERATURES IN THE  
LOW TO MID 30S OVER MUCH OF THE AREA TONIGHT. THIS SHOULD SET THE  
STAGE FOR ANOTHER ROUND OF FROST. COORDINATED WITH SURROUNDING  
OFFICES THAT ARE CURRENTLY ISSUING FROST/FREEZE HEADLINES AND THE  
CONSENSUS WAS TO HOLD OFF ON ANOTHER ADVISORY FOR NOW AND LET THE  
NEXT SHIFT ISSUE IT.  
   
LONG TERM
 
(FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)  
ISSUED AT 412 AM CDT THU APR 26 2018  
 
UPPER LEVEL RIDGING WILL BUILD BACK OVER THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS  
WHICH WILL BRING WARMER TEMPERATURES INTO THE 70S AND 80S BACK TO  
WESTERN KANSAS THIS WEEKEND.  
 
THE FIRST HALF OF NEXT WEEK WILL SEE UPPER LEVEL TROUGHING DEVELOP  
OVER WESTERN NORTH AMERICA WITH INCREASING SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW OVER  
THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS. BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF SHOW MOIST SOUTHERLY  
FLOW DEVELOPING FROM TEXAS TO KANSAS WITH A DRYLINE DEVELOPING FROM  
WESTERN KANSAS TO WEST TEXAS MONDAY AND TUESDAY. WHILE DETAILS ON  
THE LOCATION OF THE DRYLINE ARE STILL UNCERTAIN, CONFIDENCE IN THE  
POSSIBILITY OF SOME SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUES TO INCREASE FOR  
EARLY NEXT WEEK.  
 

 
   
AVIATION
 
(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z FRIDAY MORNING)  
ISSUED AT 605 AM CDT THU APR 26 2018  
 
LIGHT SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS WILL INCREASE FROM THE NORTH AND BECOME  
GUSTY FROM THE NORTH UP TO 35 KNOTS THIS MORNING INTO MIDDAY AS A STRONG  
COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE AREA. VFR CIGS ARE EXPECTED AND A FEW  
POST-FRONTAL SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE.  
 

 
   
FIRE WEATHER
 
 
ISSUED AT 412 AM CDT THU APR 26 2018  
 
NORTH WINDS GUSTING OVER 40 MPH ARE EXPECTED BEHIND A COLD FRONT  
MOVING THROUGH THE REGION THIS MORNING. RELATIVE HUMIDITY LEVELS  
ARE EXPECTED TO ONLY DROP TO AROUND 30 PERCENT THIS AFTERNOON BUT  
GIVEN THE GUSTY WINDS AND MINIMAL GREENUP, ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER  
CONDITIONS WILL BE POSSIBLE TODAY, ESPECIALLY ALONG AND WEST OF  
HIGHWAY 83.  
 

 
   
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
 
 
DDC 67 35 73 42 / 20 10 0 0  
GCK 64 32 72 41 / 10 0 0 0  
EHA 63 35 72 43 / 0 0 0 0  
LBL 66 35 72 42 / 0 0 0 0  
HYS 66 35 73 40 / 20 0 0 0  
P28 70 39 73 44 / 20 20 0 0  
 

 
   
DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
 
 
FROST ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM CDT /6 AM MDT/ THIS MORNING FOR KSZ030-  
031-043>046-061>066-074>080-084>088.  
 

 
 

 
 
SHORT TERM...GERARD  
LONG TERM...GERARD  
AVIATION...GERARD  
FIRE WEATHER...GERARD  
 
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