934  
FXUS63 KDDC 242333  
AFDDDC  
 
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION  
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS  
633 PM CDT SUN JUL 24 2016  
   
..UPDATED AVIATION SECTION
 
 
   
SYNOPSIS
 
 
ISSUED AT 244 PM CDT SUN JUL 24 2016  
 
A NEARLY STATIONARY FRONT WAS SITUATED ACROSS SOUTHWESTERN KANSAS  
THIS AFTERNOON AND LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WAS COLLECTING ON THE COOL  
SIDE OF THE FRONT OVER WESTERN KANSAS. A SIGNIFICANT CHANGE IN  
THE LARGE SCALE PATTERN WILL OCCUR OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS. UPPER  
LEVEL RIDGING OVER THE SOUTHERN ROCKIES WILL GRADUALLY SHIFT  
WESTWARD INTO THE FOUR CORNERS REGION THROUGH THURSDAY, WITH  
NORTHWESTERLY MID TO HIGH LEVEL FLOW BECOMING ESTABLISHED OVER THE  
PLAINS. A QUASI-STATIONARY FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL BE SITUATED  
ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN PLAINS AND THUNDERSTORM OUTFLOW  
WILL HAVE AN EFFECT ON ITS PLACEMENT FROM DAY TO DAY.  
 

 
   
SHORT TERM
 
(THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY)  
ISSUED AT 244 PM CDT SUN JUL 24 2016  
 
LOTS OF MID LEVEL CLOUD AND EARLY MORNING THUNDERSTORM OUTFLOW  
HAVE RESULTED IN COOLER TEMPERATURES TODAY. THUNDERSTORMS ARE  
POSSIBLE LATE THIS AFTERNOON ALONG A NEARLY STATIONARY FRONT OVER  
SOUTHWESTERN KANSAS AND IN THE UPSLOPE REGION OF EASTERN COLORADO.  
ANY STORMS DEVELOPING IN EASTERN COLORADO MAY MOVE INTO WESTERN  
KANSAS THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT IF AN ORGANIZED CLUSTER  
DEVELOPS.  
   
LONG TERM
 
(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)  
ISSUED AT 244 PM CDT SUN JUL 24 2016  
 
THERE ARE SMALL CHANCES FOR THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH NEXT WEEK  
AS SHORTWAVE TROUGHS EMBEDDED IN NORTHWESTERLY FLOW MOVE ACROSS  
THE PLAINS, WITH A QUASI-STATIONARY FRONT OVER THE SOUTHERN AND  
CENTRAL PLAINS. THIS TIME OF YEAR IT'S HARD TO RULE OUT  
THUNDERSTORMS WHEN WESTERN KANSAS IS SITUATED ALONG THE SOUTHERN  
EDGE OF THE WESTERLIES WHERE FRONTS TEND TO STALL OUT. HIGH  
TEMPERATURES WILL BE COOLER IN THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 90S FOR THE  
MOST PART, BUT TEMPERATURES COULD STAY IN THE UPPER 80S ON ANY DAY  
THAT FEATURES WIDESPREAD CLOUDINESS AND THUNDERSTORM OUTFLOW. THE  
BEST CHANCE FOR THE COOLER DAYS IS WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY. A  
FEW OF THE STORMS COULD BE MARGINALLY SEVERE WITH LARGE HAIL AND  
DAMAGING WINDS.  
 

 
   
AVIATION
 
(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z MONDAY EVENING)  
ISSUED AT 631 PM CDT SUN JUL 24 2016  
 
THERE IS INCREASED CONFIDENCE THAT A FAIRLY ORGANIZED MCS WILL  
ROLL EAST-SOUTHEAST ACROSS SOUTHWEST KANSAS LATE TONIGHT. THE  
GREATEST IMPACTS WILL MOST LIKELY BE AT GCK AND DDC TERMINALS,  
WHERE THERE WILL LIKELY BE A 1 TO 3 HOUR PERIOD OF HEAVY  
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY, INCLUDING 35 TO 55 MPH WINDS AND IFR/MVFR  
CONDITIONS IN LOWER VISIBILITY/CEILING WITH THE STORMS. AFTER THE  
CONVECTION CLEARS IN THE EARLY MORNING HOURS MONDAY, THERE SHOULD  
BE A NORTHEAST WIND GRADUALLY BECOMING SOUTHEAST BY MONDAY  
AFTERNOON AT 10 TO 15 KNOTS.  
 

 
   
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
 
 
DDC 70 91 70 93 / 60 30 20 20  
GCK 69 91 69 93 / 60 20 20 20  
EHA 69 92 68 94 / 60 20 20 20  
LBL 70 93 69 94 / 60 20 20 20  
HYS 69 90 70 93 / 30 20 20 20  
P28 74 94 72 94 / 60 40 30 30  
 

 
   
DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
 
 
NONE.  

 
 

 
 
SYNOPSIS...FINCH  
SHORT TERM...FINCH  
LONG TERM...FINCH  
AVIATION...UMSCHEID  
 
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.

The Nexlab KS Page Main Text Page