040
FXUS63 KDDC 291108
AFDDDC
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS
608 AM CDT SUN JUN 29 2025
KEY MESSAGES
- HIGHS THIS AFTERNOON WILL BE IN THE MID TO UPPER 90S WITH
AFTERNOON HEAT INDEX OF 100 TO 102 POSSIBLE EAST OF HIGHWAY
183.
- MARGINAL RISK FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS AFTER 5 PM AND
CONTINUING THROUGH THE LATE EVENING AS A COLD FRONT CROSSES
SOUTHWEST KANSAS. MAIN HAZARDS WILL BE STRONG GUSTY WINDS AND
LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL.
- COOLER TEMPERATURES WILL START OFF THE WORK WEEK BUT A WARMING
TREND WILL RETURN TO SOUTHWEST KANSAS MID TO LATE WEEK.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 407 AM CDT SUN JUN 29 2025
TODAY IS THE HOTTEST DAY OF THE NEXT 7 AS HIGHS COULD REACH 100
DEGREES IN THE RED HILLS REGION. LOW 60S DEWPOINTS WILL
RELEGATE THE APPARENT TEMPERATURES TO ONLY ABOUT A ONE DEGREE
BUMP TO THE ACTUAL TEMPERATURES. A MODERATE HEAT RISK (LEVEL 2
OF 4) MAY CAUSE ISSUES FOR THOSE LACKING ADEQUATE HYDRATION.
SOME UNCERTAINTY EXISTS WITH SPATIAL COVERAGE OF CONVECTION FOR
LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. CAMS DEVELOP SINGLE CELL
STORMS BY AROUND 5 PM WHICH BECOME MORE NUMEROUS INCLUDING
MORPHING INTO MCS ACTIVITY BY AROUND 00 UTC AND BEYOND. THE
ENVIRONMENT IS CHARACTERIZED BY A BROAD SURFACE TROUGH OVER
SOUTHWEST KANSAS IN THE AFTERNOON, WITH A WEAK COLD FRONT
PUSHING SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE AREA. MOST OF THE CAMS SEEM TO
FOCUS STORMS ALONG THIS COLD FRONT WITH A CENTRAL KS MCS
DEVELOPING ALONG IT. THE GENERAL LOW SHEAR AND MODERATE CAPE
ENVIRONMENT FAVORS LOCALLY DAMAGING WIND OVER LARGE HAIL THIS
EVENING. THE HRRR MODEL IS A BIT OF AN OUTLIER, FORMING A BROKEN
LINE OF CONVECTION OUT OF THE HIGHER TERRAIN EASTERN CO LATE IN
THE AFTERNOON, BUT IT'S POSSIBLE THE HRRR COMES INTO LINE WITH
MANY OF THE OTHER CAMS DEVELOP CONVECTIVE INITIATION ALONG THE
FRONT AS WELL, AS CAPPING DOES NOT LOOK STRONG ENOUGH.
HEAT RISK BEYOND TODAY, DUE TO THE RAINS AND THE SURFACE COLD
FRONT, WILL BE RELEGATED TO THE LIMITED (LEVEL 1 OF 4) CATEGORY,
AS HIGH DROP INTO THE MID 80S FOR THE MID PORTION OF THE WEEK,
WITH A GRADUALLY WARMUP BACK INTO THE LOW 90S BY THE WEEKEND.
EVEN INTO THE WEEKEND AND BEYOND THE NBM MODELS 75TH PERCENTILE
FOR AFTERNOON HIGHS DO NOT EXCEED THE LOW 90S INCLUDING THE JULY
4TH HOLIDAY).
LOW CHANCES FOR THUNDERSTORMS AGAIN MONDAY EVENING (AT AROUND
20- 30% CHANCES) ARE PAINTED ACROSS THE FAR SOUTHWEST COUNTIES
(SOUTHWEST OF A JOHNSON TO MEADE AND MED LODGE LINE). THIS
MARKS THE ZONE OF HIGHER MOISTURE CONTENT AIR TO THE IMMEDIATE
SOUTH OF THE DDC AREA, WHERE A DAY 2 MARGINAL EXCESSIVE
RAINFALL OUTLOOK IS IN PLACE ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS,
BRUSHING THE DDC FORECAST AREA ON THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY.
AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z MONDAY/
ISSUED AT 607 AM CDT SUN JUN 29 2025
RESIDUAL INSTABILITY THUNDERSTORMS (-TSRA AND MINIMAL IMPACTS
TO CEILINGS AND VSBY) CONTINUING AT DDC WILL NEED TO BE
MONITORED FOR THE NEXT HOUR OR SO. AFTER THAT VFR CATEGORY IS
ANTICIPATED UNTIL LATE THIS AFTERNOON WHEN ADDITIONAL CONVECTIVE
INITIATION DEVELOPS ALONG A SAGGING COLD FRONT INTO THE AREA.
PROB30S WERE INCLUDED FOR HYS/GCK AND DDC FOR THIS MARGINAL
SEVERE RISK SETUP THIS EVENING.
DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
DISCUSSION...RUSSELL
AVIATION...RUSSELL
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