825
FXUS63 KDDC 252327
AFDDDC
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS
627 PM CDT FRI APR 25 2025
KEY MESSAGES
- THERE IS A 50-70% CHANCE FOR SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS
LATE TONIGHT.
- UNSEASONABLY WARM TEMPERATURES SUNDAY.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 203 PM CDT FRI APR 25 2025
WV IMAGERY INDICATES A WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT PREVAILING ACROSS THE
WESTERN HIGH PLAINS AS WEAK RIDGING BUILDS NORTHEAST THROUGH THE
REGION. MEANWHILE, A CLOSED UPPER LOW IS DROPPING SOUTHEAST OFFSHORE
ALONG THE CALIFORNIA COAST. NEAR THE SURFACE, A BROAD AREA OF HIGH
PRESSURE IS DRIFTING EAST THROUGH THE DAKOTAS.
RAIN CHANCES (50-70%) INCREASE AGAIN FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTHWEST
KANSAS TONIGHT AS THE SREF INDICATES RIDGING ALOFT SHIFTING EAST
INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS WHILE THE CLOSED LOW OFF THE WEST COAST
CONTINUES TO SLIDE SLOWLY SOUTHEAST, GIVING WAY ONCE AGAIN TO A MORE
DIFLUENT SOUTHWEST FLOW ACROSS THE WESTERN HIGH PLAINS EARLY IN THE
PERIOD. NEAR THE SURFACE, DEPARTING SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE THROUGH
THE UPPER MIDWEST WILL HELP SET UP A EAST-SOUTHEASTERLY UPSLOPE FLOW
ACROSS THE HIGH PLAINS OF EASTERN COLORADO/WESTERN KANSAS LATE THIS
EVENING WITH A PROJECTED FRONTAL BOUNDARY EXTENDING OFF A SURFACE
LOW IN THE TEXAS PANHANDLE NORTHWEST INTO SOUTH CENTRAL COLORADO.
ALTHOUGH SUFFICIENT MOISTURE IS PRESENT WITH SURFACE DEWPOINTS IN
THE UPPER 40S(F) TO MID-50S(F), COOLER CONDITIONS IS RESULTING IN
MINIMAL INSTABILITY WITH THE RAP13 SHOWING MUCAPE VALUES PUSHING
ONLY UPWARD OF 500 J/KG WITH A CORRIDOR OF SLIGHTLY HIGHER VALUES
STRETCHING FROM THE TEXAS PANHANDLE NORTHWEST INTO SOUTHEAST
COLORADO. STILL, SHOWERS WITH A FEW ISOLATED EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS
ARE FORECAST TO DEVELOP IN VICINITY OF THE STALLED FRONTAL BOUNDARY
WELL TO OUR SOUTHWEST LATE THIS AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING AS H5 VORT
MAXIMA EJECT NORTHEAST OUT OF THE SOUTHERN ROCKIES, INTERACTING WITH
THE STALLED BOUNDARY. ANY SHOWERS/EMBEDDED STORMS ARE THEN EXPECTED
TO SPREAD NORTHEAST OVERNIGHT, PUSHING INTO SOUTHWEST KANSAS TOWARD
DAYBREAK SATURDAY. THIS IS SUGGESTED BY THE HREF PAINTING A 20-30%
PROBABILITY FOR 6-HR QPF EXCEEDING 0.1 OF AN INCH ACROSS MUCH OF
SOUTHWEST KANSAS BY EARLY SATURDAY AFTERNOON.
THERE IS A MINIMAL CHANCE (20-30%) FOR THUNDERSTORMS SUNDAY AS MEDIUM
RANGE ENSEMBLES INDICATE A CLOSED UPPER LOW LIFTING NORTHEAST ACROSS
THE GREAT BASIN, SUPPORTING A SLOWLY INTENSIFYING DIFLUENT SOUTHWEST
FLOW ALOFT ACROSS THE WESTERN HIGH PLAINS. IN RESPONSE, A DEVELOPING
SURFACE LOW IS PROJECTED TO STRENGTHEN IN EASTERN COLORADO WHILE
LIFTING NORTHEAST TOWARD WESTERN NEBRASKA WITH A SHARPENING ATTENDANT
DRYLINE ADVANCING EASTWARD IN VICINITY OF THE COLORADO LINE, POTENTIALLY
INTO EXTREME WESTERN KANSAS. MEANWHILE, PREVAILING SOUTHERLIES AHEAD
OF THE DRYLINE WILL DRAW AMPLE MOISTURE INTO CENTRAL AND PORTIONS
OF SOUTHWEST KANSAS WITH SURFACE DEWPOINTS PUSHING THE LOWER/MID
60S(F), PROVIDING PLENTY OF INSTABILITY. THIS ALONG WITH STEEPENING
MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES WILL SUPPORT POTENTIAL FOR THUNDERSTORM
DEVELOPMENT LATE SUNDAY AFTERNOON INTO SUNDAY EVENING.
NEAR SEASONAL TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST AGAIN TONIGHT AS SURFACE
HIGH PRESSURE DRIFTS EAST OUT OF THE DAKOTAS INTO THE UPPER MIDWEST,
CREATING MORE OF A EAST-SOUTHEAST UPSLOPE FLOW ACROSS WESTERN
KANSAS. THIS WILL DO VERY LITTLE TO ERODE THE COOLER AIRMASS ACROSS
THE AREA WHILE SKIES ALSO REMAIN MOSTLY CLOUDY TO OVERCAST. CONSIDERING
THE HREF PAINTS A 70-90% PROBABILITY OF TEMPERATURES SLIPPING BELOW
50F IN WEST CENTRAL KANSAS TO A 70-90% PROBABILITY OF DROPPING BELOW
55F IN SOUTH CENTRAL KANSAS, LOOK FOR LOWS GENERALLY IN THE MID/UPPER
40S(F) WEST TO THE 50S(F) FARTHER EAST. WARMER TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED
SATURDAY AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE PUSHES FARTHER EAST ACROSS THE
UPPER MIDWEST INTO THE GREAT LAKES REGION WHILE LEE SIDE TROUGHING
BEGINS TO DEVELOP IN EASTERN COLORADO, BRINGING SOUTH-SOUTHEASTERLIES
TO WESTERN KANSAS. THIS WILL DRAW SLIGHTLY WARMER AIR INTO THE AREA,
NUDGING H85 TEMPERATURES A LITTLE ABOVE 10C. HOWEVER, CLIMBING
TEMPERATURES MAY BE LIMITED DEPENDENT HOW LONG PREVAILING LOW LEVEL
STRATUS TAKES TO LIFT/SCATTER OUT. THE LATEST HREF SHOWS A WIDESPREAD
60-80% PROBABILITY OF TEMPERATURES TOPPING 55F, SO AFTERNOON HIGHS
EXCEEDING 60F MAY BE A STRUGGLE IN SOME LOCATIONS, ESPECIALLY FARTHER
NORTH NEAR THE I-70 CORRIDOR. MUCH WARMER TEMPERATURES ARE LIKELY
SUNDAY AS A STRENGTHENING LEE SIDE TROUGH AXIS IN EASTERN COLORADO
SUPPORTS A MORE SOUTHERLY FLOW ACROSS WESTERN KANSAS, ENHANCING WARM
AIR ADVECTION WITH H85 TEMPERATURES PUSHING ABOVE 15C IN CENTRAL
KANSAS TO NEAR 25C ALONG THE COLORADO LINE. EXPECT AFTERNOON HIGHS
UP INTO THE MID/UPPER 70S(F) IN CENTRAL KANSAS TO WIDESPREAD 80S(F)
ACROSS MUCH OF SOUTHWEST KANSAS. LOOK FOR SIMILAR TEMPERATURES MONDAY
WITH HIGHS IN THE 80S(F) SHIFTING EASTWARD INTO CENTRAL KANSAS.
AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SATURDAY/
ISSUED AT 615 PM CDT FRI APR 25 2025
WIDESPREAD IFR/LIFR CONDITIONS CAN BE EXPECTED OVERNIGHT DUE TO
LOW CEILINGS AND FOG. EAST TO SOUTHEAST WINDS AT AROUND 10
KNOTS WILL BRING ABUNDANT LOW LEVEL MOISTURE TO SOUTHWEST
KANSAS AS SCATTERED SHOWERS SPREAD IN FROM THE SOUTHWEST AFTER
MIDNIGHT. CEILINGS AT 22Z TODAY (FRIDAY) ARE ALREADY LOWER THAN
WHAT HREF GUIDANCE SUGGESTED, AND DESPITE A SOMEWHAT OPTIMISTIC
TREND IN CAMS DO NOT ANTICIPATE ANY IMPROVEMENT IN THE CEILING
HEIGHTS TONIGHT. IN FACT AFTER MIDNIGHT THE CEILINGS ARE LIKELY
TO LOWER FURTHER AS AREAS OF FOG DEVELOP. BASED ON LAST NIGHTS
MODEL PERFORMANCE ON VISIBILITIES AND EASTERLY WINDS, THE MORE
PESSIMISTIC GUIDANCE IN VISIBILITIES HAVE BEEN FAVORED FOR LATE
TONIGHT INTO EARLY SATURDAY MORNING. THIS WILL RESULT IN A
PERIOD OF VISIBILITIES FALLING INTO THE 1/2 TO 3/4 MILE RANGE
BETWEEN 06Z AND 15Z SATURDAY.
DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
DISCUSSION...JJOHNSON
AVIATION...BURGERT
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