140  
FXUS63 KDDC 222340  
AFDDDC  
 
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION  
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS  
540 PM CST SUN JAN 22 2017  
   
..UPDATED AVIATION DISCUSSION
 
 
   
SHORT TERM
 
(THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY)  
ISSUED AT 225 PM CST SUN JAN 22 2017  
 
WINDS AT AROUND 10 MPH WILL GRADUALLY SHIFT TO THE SOUTH  
SOUTHWEST LATE TONIGHT AS A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE  
BEGINS TO DEVELOP ALONG THE LEE OF THE ROCKIES. GIVEN A WESTERLY  
COMPONENT TO THE WINDS OVERNIGHT INITIALLY AM LEANING TOWARDS  
TEMPERATURES SLIGHTLY WARMER THAN WHAT THE 12Z GUIDANCE SUGGESTED  
IN FAR WESTERN KANSAS. EAST OF DODGE CITY WILL FAVOR UNDERCUTTING  
GUIDANCE HERE BASED ON THE FORECAST LOCATION OF THE SURFACE RIDGE  
AXIS. LOWS OVERNIGHT WILL BE MAINLY IN THE MID 20S.  
 
A SURFACE TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO DEVELOP ACROSS  
EASTERN COLORADO ON MONDAY AS THE NEXT UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM MOVES  
INTO THE FOUR CORNERS REGION AND AN UPPER RIDGE AXIS QUICKLY MOVES  
EAST ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS. AS A SURFACE WARM FRONT LIFTS  
NORTHEAST ACROSS WESTERN KANSAS DURING THE DAY ON MONDAY THE 850  
MB TEMPERATURES WARM NEAR 10C BETWEEN 00Z MONDAY AND 00Z TUESDAY  
IN SOUTHWEST KANSAS. THIS CONTINUES TO SUPPORT TEMPERATURES  
REBOUNDING BACK INTO THE 60 TO 65 DEGREE RANGE FOR MUCH OF  
SOUTHWEST KANSAS. IN NORTH CENTRAL AND SOUTH CENTRAL KANSAS THE  
HIGHS WILL CLIMB INTO THE MID TO UPPER 50S.  
   
LONG TERM
 
(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)  
ISSUED AT 225 PM CST SUN JAN 22 2017  
 
ON TUESDAY THE SURFACE WARM FRONT WILL BE LOCATED IN NORTH  
CENTRAL KANSAS AS THE UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM, LOCATED IN THE SOUTHWEST  
UNITED STATES EARLIER TODAY, EXITS THE ROCKIES AND CROSSES THE  
CENTRAL PLAINS. AS THIS UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM LIFTS NORTHEAST INTO  
NEBRASKA TOWARDS MID DAY ON TUESDAY A SURFACE COLD FRONT WILL  
CROSS WESTERN KANSAS. BEHIND THIS COLD FRONT GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS  
OF AT 20 TO 30 MPH WILL DEVELOP AS SOME COOLER AIR BEGINS TO  
RETURN. AT THIS TIME BASED ON THE TIMING OF THE COLD FRONT AND THE  
COLD AIR ADVECTION FORECAST BY THE NAM AND GFS BEHIND THIS SURFACE  
BOUNDARY DURING THE AFTERNOON THE HIGHS FOR PORTIONS OF WESTERN  
KANSAS WILL OCCUR EARLY IN THE DAY WITH FALLING AFTERNOON  
TEMPERATURES. HIGHS ON TUESDAY NOT ONLY WILL OCCUR EARLY BUT ALSO  
ARE EXPECTED TO BE ROUGHLY 15 TO NEAR 20 DEGREES COOLER THAN THE  
HIGHS ON MONDAY FOR MUCH OF WESTERN KANSAS. ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL  
KANSAS THE COOL DOWN WILL BE LESS DRAMATIC GIVEN THE LATER TIMING  
OF THE COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE.  
 
THERE WILL ALSO BE A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR SOME SNOW TUESDAY  
AFTERNOON AND TUESDAY NIGHT. AT THIS TIME THE BETTER CHANCES FOR  
MEASURABLE SNOWFALL WILL OCCUR ACROSS NORTHERN KANSAS EARLY  
TUESDAY NIGHT BUT SOME MINOR, LESS THAN AN INCH, ACCUMULATIONS CAN  
NOT BE COMPLETELY RULED OUT IN WEST CENTRAL KANSAS AND NEAR THE  
I-70 CORRIDOR IN NORTH CENTRAL KANSAS.  
 
FOR AREAS THAT MAY STILL BE CLEANING UP FROM THE RECENT ICE STORM  
THE GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS OF 20 TO 30 MPH LATE TUESDAY MAY RESULT  
IN SOME LIGHT DAMAGE OF THE REMAINING WEAKENED TREES OR LINGERING  
DANGLING BROKEN TREE LIMBS.  
 
WEDNESDAY STILL APPEARS TO BE THE COLDEST DAY OF THE WORK WEEK AS  
30 TO 40 MPH NORTH WINDS ADVECT COLDER AIR INTO WESTERN KANSAS.  
HIGHS ON WEDNESDAY WILL RANGE FROM THE MID 30S TO NEAR 45 DEGREES  
AND LOWS WEDNESDAY NIGHT ARE EXPECTED TO FALL BACK INTO THE TEENS  
FOR MANY AREAS IN WESTERN KANSAS. DRY AND MORE SEASONAL  
TEMPERATURES CAN BE EXPECTED FROM THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY.  
 

 
   
AVIATION
 
(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z MONDAY EVENING)  
ISSUED AT 540 PM CST SUN JAN 22 2017  
 
WITH ONLY SOME INCREASING HIGH LEVEL CLOUDINESS EXPECTED THROUGH THIS  
PERIOD, VFR CIGS AND VSBYS WILL PREVAIL. LIGHT NORTHWESTERLY WINDS WILL  
BECOME SOUTHWEST LATER TONIGHT AS A LOW PRESSURE TROUGH DEVELOPS IN  
THE LEE OF THE ROCKIES. SOUTH WINDS WILL INCREASE ON MONDAY AND BECOME  
GUSTY TO 25-30 KNOTS BY THE AFTERNOON AS LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPS OVER  
NORTHEAST COLORADO.  
 

 
   
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
 
 
DDC 26 60 37 51 / 0 0 0 10  
GCK 25 61 34 48 / 0 0 0 10  
EHA 30 65 35 49 / 0 0 0 10  
LBL 28 66 35 53 / 0 0 0 10  
HYS 25 55 33 46 / 0 0 0 10  
P28 27 58 36 58 / 0 0 0 10  
 

 
   
DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
 
 
NONE.  

 
 

 
 
SHORT TERM...BURGERT  
LONG TERM...BURGERT  
AVIATION...GERARD  
 
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