835  
FXUS63 KDDC 282315  
AFDDDC  
 
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION  
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS  
615 PM CDT WED JUN 28 2017  
   
..UPDATED AVIATION DISCUSSION
 
 
   
SHORT TERM
 
(THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY)  
ISSUED AT 320 PM CDT WED JUN 28 2017  
 
MID AFTERNOON SURFACE MAP AND CLEAR-AIR RADAR RETURNS SHOWED A  
FRONTAL ZONE ACROSS SOUTHWEST KS FROM ROUGHLY LIBERAL TO NEAR DODGE  
CITY TO NEAR HAYS. THIS FRONT HAD PRETTY MUCH STALLED OUT WITH  
AFTERNOON HEATING. MID LEVEL TEMPERATURES WERE QUITE WARM, SO THE  
ATMOSPHERE WILL LIKELY REMAIN CAPPED TO SURFACE-BASED CONVECTION  
ALONG THIS FRONT, WITH THE EXCEPTION BEING UP AROUND HAYS. THE HRRR  
RUNS TODAY WERE SHOWING ATTEMPTS AT CONVECTION ALONG THE FRONT, BUT  
NOT UNTIL AFTER 00Z. THE 03-06Z TIME FRAME WILL BE OF MOST INTEREST,  
AS THE NOCTURNAL LLJ WILL BE RAMPING UP SIGNIFICANTLY IN ADVANCE OF  
THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVING INTO WYOMING THIS AFTERNOON. THE SPEED  
CONVERGENCE AROUND 850MB WILL INCREASE QUITE A BIT, AND THIS WILL BE  
THE PRIMARY FOCUS FOR CONVECTION AFTER DARK. THE BEST AREA, THOUGH,  
WILL BE BETWEEN I-70 AND THE NEBRASKA BORDER. NEVERTHELESS, WILL  
HAVE SOME 40-50 POPS ACROSS CENTRAL AND NORTHERN TREGO AND ELLIS  
COUNTY. POPS WILL TAPER OFF QUITE A BIT SOUTH OF THERE DOWN TO K96.  
FRESH CONVECTION THAT DEVELOPS AT THE NOSE OF THE LLJ WITH  
UNINTERRUPTED INFLOW WILL BE CAPABLE OF SOME LARGE HAIL TO HALF  
DOLLAR SIZE AND SOME 60 MPH WINDS.  
 
THURSDAY IS NOW LOOKING MORE COMPLICATED THAT PREVIOUSLY THOUGHT  
REGARDING SEVERE WEATHER ACROSS OUR NECK OF THE WOODS. MODELS ARE  
NOW SHOWING THE MAIN SURFACE LOW PUSHING WELL OFF TO THE EAST  
EARLIER, OUT NEAR RUSSEL OR GREAT BEND BY 21Z, WITH A TRAILING  
BOUNDARY SOUTHWEST FROM THERE TO ANOTHER WEAK SURFACE LOW IN THE  
NORTHERN PANHANDLES IN THE DRY AIR. WE WILL HAVE TO WATCH FOR POST-  
FRONTAL MOISTURE SNEAKING BACK WEST INTO FAR SOUTHEAST/EAST CENTRAL  
CO, AND THIS MAY ACTUALLY BE THE BEST SHOT FOR SEVERE CONVECTION TO  
DEVELOP AND MATURE INTO SOUTHWEST KS. THIS WOULD BE VERY LATE,  
THOUGH, MOST LIKELY LATE EVENING AROUND OR AFTER MIDNIGHT. A GENERAL  
20-30 POPS IS FORECAST GIVEN THE UNCERTAINTY IN PLACEMENT AND TIMING  
OF MOST COHERENT CONVECTION.  
   
LONG TERM
 
(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)  
ISSUED AT 320 PM CDT WED JUN 28 2017  
 
AFTER A COUPLE OF COOLER DAYS FRIDAY AND SATURDAY WITH HIGHS IN THE  
80S, WE WILL WARM BACK UP SUNDAY AND BEYOND BACK INTO THE 90S. POPS  
WILL BE BACK IN THE FORECAST SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY NIGHT AS WEAK  
NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL BE FOUND ACROSS WESTERN KS. THERE IS STILL  
SOME QUESTION ABOUT HOW FAR WEST ADEQUATE MOISTURE WILL BE, SO MOST  
OF THE HIGHER POPS DURING THIS TIME FRAME WILL BE ACROSS EASTERN  
HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA. BY MID-WEEK, SUBTROPICAL RIDGE WILL START  
TO BUILD IN ACROSS THE FOUR CORNERS REGION WHICH WOULD LEAD TO DRIER  
AND HOTTER WEATHER. THE LATEST ECMWF REALLY SHOWS THE 500MB RIDGE  
BUILDING IN ACROSS THE REGION BY THURSDAY OF NEXT WEEK.  
 

 
   
AVIATION
 
(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z THURSDAY EVENING)  
ISSUED AT 613 PM CDT WED JUN 28 2017  
 
MODELS LATE TODAY REMAIN IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH A CLUSTER OF  
THUNDERSTORMS CROSSING NORTHERN KANSAS OVERNIGHT. AS THESE STORMS  
CROSS NORTH CENTRAL KANSAS AROUND THE HAYS AREA BETWEEN 03Z AND  
09Z THURSDAY A SURFACE BOUNDARY/OUTFLOW WILL CROSS SOUTHWEST  
KANSAS RESULTING IN A SHIFT IN THE WIND THURSDAY MORNING. MODELS  
DIFFER ON HOW FAR SOUTH THIS BOUNDARY WILL MOVE WITH THE NAM BEING  
THE MORE AGGRESSIVE. THE NAM ALSO SUGGESTS A BRIEF PERIOD OF MVFR  
CEILING BEHIND THIS BOUNDARY BETWEEN 12Z AND 18Z THURSDAY. AT  
THIS TIME WILL FAVOR THE MORE FURTHER NORTH SOLUTIONS AND AS A  
RESULT KEEP VFR CONDITIONS AT ALL TAF SITES OVERNIGHT WITH A DECK  
OF 8000 TO 12000 FT AGL CEILINGS BEING POSSIBLE THURSDAY MORNING.  
SOUTHERLY WINDS AT 15 TO NEAR 20 KNOTS CAN BE EXPECTED OVERNIGHT  
AS A LOW LEVEL JET DEVELOPS. THE NAM AND GFS INDICATE 50 KNOTS IN  
THE 900MB TO 850MB LEVEL BY 06Z THURSDAY SO A WIND SHEAR GROUP  
STILL APPEARS WARRANTED.  
 

 
   
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
 
 
DDC 69 96 65 84 / 10 10 20 10  
GCK 65 95 63 82 / 10 10 20 10  
EHA 63 98 62 82 / 0 10 10 10  
LBL 67 100 65 84 / 0 10 10 10  
HYS 67 92 63 82 / 50 10 30 20  
P28 72 98 69 87 / 0 0 30 20  
 

 
   
DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
 
 
NONE.  

 
 

 
 
SHORT TERM...UMSCHEID  
LONG TERM...UMSCHEID  
AVIATION...BURGERT  
 
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.

The Nexlab KS Page Main Text Page