175
FXUS63 KDDC 122036
AFDDDC
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS
336 PM CDT MON MAY 12 2008
DISCUSSION
DAYS 1-2...
A SHORTWAVE TROUGH WAS PROGRESSING ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS THIS
AFTERNOON. THE ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT WAS BARRELING DOWN THE PLAINS.
LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WAS SURGING UP THE PLAINS. A DRYLINE WAS
LOCATED IN OUR WESTERN COUNTIES. THE PREVIOUS STORM SYSTEM
PUSHED THE MOISTURE TO THE GULF COAST SO INSTABILITY WAS
MARGINAL EAST OF THE DRYLINE. MEANWHILE, AN UPPER TROUGH WILL BE
DIGGING INTO THE SOUTHWEST UNITED STATES BY WEDNESDAY.
SFC TEMPS AT RAPID CITY(SIMILAR ELEVATION TO DDC) WERE IN THE
LOWER TO MIDDLE 50S THIS AFTERNOON. A SIMILAR AIRMASS WILL BE OVER
DODGE CITY ON TUESDAY. ANY MODIFICATION MAY BE OFFSET BY
WIDESPREAD CLOUD COVER. TEMPS MAY RECOVER A LITTLE LATE IN THE DAY
IN OUR NW COUNTIES IF THE SUN COMES OUT. OUR SE COUNTIES MAY WARM
INTO THE 70S AHEAD OF THE FRONT BY LATE MORNING, AND THEN FALL
INTO THE LOWER 60S IN THE AFTERNOON. SO THE COOLEST READINGS
TUESDAY SHOULD BE ALONG A DODGE CITY TO HAYS CORRIDOR. MODEL
SOUNDINGS SHOW A STRONGLY CAPPED MOIST LAYER, SO A BAND OF LIFT
WILL PRODUCE AREAS OF DRIZZLE INSTEAD OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.
WEAKER CAPPING MAY ALLOW FOR SOME LIGHT RAIN IN OUR NE COUNTIES.
DAYS 3-7...
MAIN FORECAST CHALLENGE WILL BE CHANCE FOR PRECIPITATION WEDNESDAY
NIGHT INTO THURSDAY.
AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE WILL BE SET UP ACROSS THE
EASTERN DESERT SOUTHWEST TO BEGIN THE PERIOD 00Z THURSDAY. MEDIUM
RANGE MODELS ARE IN FAIR AGREEMENT INDICATING THE UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM
DEEPENING AS IT MOVES SLOWLY TO THE EAST INTO THE SOUTHERN PLAINS OF
TEXAS AND OKLAHOMA THURSDAY. AN ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT WILL DROP
SOUTHEAST, PUSHING THROUGH WESTERN KANSAS EARLY THURSDAY, BRINGING
WITH IT THE POSSIBILITY FOR RAIN AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE
FORECAST AREA. LATEST SOLUTIONS OF BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF(HIRES)
POINT TO A MODEST MOISTURE RETURN JUST BEFORE THE NEXT COLD FRONT
PUSHES THROUGH, WITH H85 DEWPOINTS EDGING UP WELL INTO THE SINGLE
DIGITS(C) IN SOUTH CENTRAL AND PORTIONS OF SOUTHWEST KANSAS.
SHOULD SEE SURFACE DEWPOINTS UP INTO THE 40S(F) AND POSSIBLY INTO
THE LOW 50S(F). NEW MODEL SOLUTIONS ARE ALSO POINTING TO A LITTLE
BIT BETTER UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT, WITH AN UPPER LEVEL S/WAVE IMPULSE
CROSSING THE TEXAS PANHANDLE INTO OKLAHOMA WEDNESDAY NIGHT. THE
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL CONTINUE TO DEEPEN AS IT TRACKS SLOWLY
EAST, TAKING THE BETTER CHANCES FOR PRECIP TO OUR SOUTHEAST BY THURSDAY
EVENING. PLAN TO BUMP UP POPS A BIT IN THE WEDNESDAY NIGHT TO THE
EARLY THURSDAY TIME FRAME.
A FAIRLY AMPLIFIED UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE IN THE WESTERN
CONUS WILL TAKE CONTROL BY EARLY THIS WEEKEND, BRINGING NORTHWESTERLY
FLOW ALOFT ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS THROUGH THE EARLY PORTIONS OF
NEXT WEEK. BUT BY WEEK TWO, THE MODELS INDICATE A MORE ZONAL FLOW
REGIME. THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE EXITING THE REGION
WILL BE SLOW ENOUGH TO CAUSE A GENERAL NORTHERLY LOW LEVEL FLOW ACROSS
WESTERN KANSAS INTO THE WEEKEND. AS A RESULT, EXPECT A SLOWER
WARMING TREND THROUGH THE WEEKEND BEFORE A DEVELOPING LEE SIDE
TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE SETS UP EARLY NEXT WEEK. THIS WILL ALLOW
FOR THE WARMING TREND TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.
PLAN ON SLIGHT ADJUSTMENTS TO TEMPERATURES.
AVIATION
A STRONG LEE SIDE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IN EASTERN COLORADO WILL DROP
SOUTHEAST INTO OKLAHOMA TONIGHT AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT.
THE COLD FRONT WILL PUSH THROUGH SOUTHWEST KANSAS EARLY TUESDAY
MORNING. EXPECT STRONG SOUTHERLY WINDS AT 25 TO 30 MPH WITH GUSTS
UP TO 40 MPH THIS EVENING AND INTO THE EARLY OVERNIGHT HOURS
BEFORE THE FRONT PASSES THROUGH. WINDS WILL BECOME NORTHERLY
BEHIND THE FRONT WITH SPEEDS RANGING 20 TO 30 MPH AND GUSTY.
OTHERWISE, VFR CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST AHEAD OF THE FRONT THROUGH
TOMORROW MORNING. EXPECT AREAS OF MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS...MAINLY FOR
CEILINGS...TO DEVELOP AFTER 10Z ALONG AND BEHIND THE FRONT AS IT
MOVES WEST TO EAST.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
DDC 52 56 43 72 / 0 0 0 0
GCK 50 57 41 71 / 0 0 0 0
EHA 50 61 43 66 / 0 0 0 0
LBL 51 60 43 68 / 0 0 0 0
HYS 51 56 44 69 / 0 20 0 0
P28 57 72 48 72 / 0 0 0 0
DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 9 PM CDT /8 PM MDT/ THIS EVENING FOR
KSZ061-062-074-075-084-085.
FN24/32
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